15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha +8.5

Nebraska-Omaha is one of the most underrated teams in the country in the early going. This is a team that returned four starters from last season and is playing just its second season as a Division 1 squad. That's why the Mavericks are under the radar because the betting public hasn't caught on yet.

The Mavericks returned each of their top five scorers from last season in Justin Simmons (16.7 ppg), John Karhoff (12.0 ppg), CJ Carter (9.7 ppg), Alex Phillips (8.2 ppg) and Marcus Tyus (8.2 ppg). All five guys have made significant contributions in the early going.

Carter is leading the way with 15.8 points per game. Karhoff (11.2 ppg), Tyus (11.2 ppg), Simmons (7.2 ppg) and Phillips (6.5) have picked up right where they left off as well. Devin Patterson (11.8 ppg, 4.5 apg) and Mike Rostampour (7.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg) have emerged onto the scene as well to really show the depth of this team.

Nebraska-Omaha is off to a 3-2 start this season. Its only two losses have come on the road against Iowa (75-83) as a 29.5-point underdog, and UNLV (70-73) as a 14-point dog. It has beaten Northern Illinois (68-66) on the road as a 6.5-point dog. It also beat Missouri-KC (101-71) and South Carolina State (91-59) at home. Iowa and UNLV are both expected to make the NCAA Tournament this season, so those losses were impressive to say the least.

Drake only returned two starters this season and lost three of its top four scores, including Ben Simmons (14.1 ppg). Drake did play well in road games against Illinois Chicago (61-59) and Saint Mary's (63-67), but this team is getting way too much respect as an 8.5-point favorite here.

After going into Iowa and losing by 8, and going into UNLV and losing by 3, there's no question the Mavericks can stay within 8 of the Bulldogs. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see Nebraska-Omaha win outright. Drake is not as good of a team as either Iowa or UNLV.

One thing I love about this Nebraska-Omaha team is its free throw shooting. It has averaged 22 makes on 28 attempts per game for a 79.0% free throw percentage. With the emphasis on calling more fouls this season, free throw shooting is at a premium.

This is a very tough spot for Drake. It is coming off a heartbreaking loss at Saint Mary's last time out. It could certainly suffer a hangover from that defeat. That's especially the case when you consider it has another big road game at Fresno State on deck.

Drake is 0-6 ATS after forcing its last opponents to commit eight or less turnovers over the last three seasons. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Nebraska-Omaha is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Mavericks. Take Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -4

The Clemson Tigers came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued after going just 13-18 in head coach Brad Brownell's first season last year. The Tigers had to transition from Oliver Purnell's up-tempo style to Brownell's motion offense, and there was no question it was going to take some time.

Well, Clemson appears to be hitting on all cylinders to open the season this year. It has started 4-0 with four straight blowout victories over Stetson (71-51), Delaware State (58-37) South Carolina (71-57) and Temple (72-58). The Tigers returned five of their top seven scorers from last season, and all five have made significant contributions in the early going.

K.J. McDaniels, the top returning scorer, has averaged 18.0 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.0 blocks per game to lead the charge. Rod Hall (11.0 ppg, 4.0 apg), Jordan Roper (11.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg), Demarcus Harrison (7.2 ppg) and Adonis Filer (4.8 ppg) have all upped their games this season from last year.

Davidson returns just two starters from last season and loses three of its top four scorers. The going has certainly been tough for the Wildcats in the early going as this team has clearly taken a big step back from last year. They have opened 1-3 with losses to Duke (77-111), Wisconsin-Milwaukee (77-81) and Virginia (57-70). Their 94-82 win over a horrible Georgia team last night was far from impressive.

With free throws being more important this season, it's certainly worth pointing out that the Tigers have been cashing in their free throws at a deadly rate this season. They are making a ridiculous 81.2% of their free throws thus far. That could come in handy if this game is close down the stretch, though I don't expect it will be.

This will essentially be a home game for Clemson as it will be played inside TD Bank Arena in Charleston, South Carolina. The Wildcats are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%. Bet Clemson Friday.

15* CBB Friday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Kansas -17.5

The Kansas Jayhawks should be a much bigger favorite at home Friday against Towson. I look for them to be covering by halftime, and to build on their lead from there. The books have missed their mark badly tonight folks.

Somehow, I believe the Jayhawks actually came into 2013 underrated due to the lack of experience they had returning. However, they have made up for it with the talent they brought in, and the talent that was left over.

Kansas has opened 3-0 this year, which includes a 94-83 win over Duke. I believe that the Blue Devils are one of the top three teams in the country, right along with Kansas, so that win was impressive to say the least.

Perry Ellis (19.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) has been a monster thus far. Andrew Wiggins (17.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) is expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft. Wayne Selden Jr. (10.0 ppg, 4.3apg), Joel Embiid (9.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Frank Mason (9.0 ppg) have been solid as well.

Towson State is getting too much respect from the books tonight due to its 3-1 start. All three victories came at home against the likes of Navy, Morgan State and Temple. In its lone road game, Towson lost badly by a final of 44-78 at Villanova. I look for a similar result tonight as Towson is simply outclassed in this one.

The Jayhawks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games overall. Kansas has won 65 straight non-conference games at home and has taken two meetings with Towson over that stretch by a combined 72 points.

The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. Kansas is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Jayhawks. Bet Kansas Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Celtics UNDER 186

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics. I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle tonight when these teams square off inside TD Garden Friday.

Indiana ranks 24th in the league in pace at 95.3 possessions per game. It also ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 90.5 points per 100 possessions. With its ability to defend and play a half-court style, Indiana dictates tempo in almost every game it plays.

The Pacers are scoring 96.4 points and allowing 87.2 points per game this season, combining with their opponents to average 183.6 points per game. It is only allowing foes to shoot 39.5% from the floor. Boston, which is scoring just 93.4 points per game, will have a hard time finding the basket tonight.

This has been a very low-scoring series between the Pacers and Celtics in years' past, and with defensive-minded Brad Stevens as Boston's new coach, I believe that will continue. The Pacers and Celtics have combined for 164, 169, 158, 181, 180 and 161 points in their last six meetings, respectively. They are combining to average 168.8 points per game during this span, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 186.

The UNDER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Pacers last five games when playing on 1 days rest. the UNDER is 10-2 in Pacers last 12 games following a win. The UNDER is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 vs. NBA Central Division opponents. The UNDER is 13-6 in Celtics last 19 games overall. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +2

The Phoenix Suns are the single-most underrated team in the league in 2013. They have opened 5-6 this season and are off four straight losses, which will have them very hungry for a victory. A closer look into their defeats really shows how close this is to being an 11-0 team right now.

All six of the Suns' losses have come by 7 points or less this season, including four by 3 points or fewer. Three of those losses came on the road to three of the best teams in the league in the Thunder, Spurs and Blazers. This team isn't getting the respect it deserves, and it should not be an underdog here.

Phoenix has played its last two games without its best player in Eric Bledsoe. Well, Bledsoe is expected to return tonight from a bruised shin, and I believe it's going to make the difference. He is averaging 20.4 points, 6.8 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. What is most amazing about the Suns start is that Bledsoe and Goran Dragic have played complete games together in just two of the last nine contests.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -3.5

The Clemson Tigers came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued after going just 13-18 in head coach Brad Brownell's first season last year. The Tigers had to transition from Oliver Purnell's up-tempo style to Brownell's motion offense, and there was no question it was going to take some time.

Well, Clemson appears to be hitting on all cylinders to open the season this year. It has started 3-0 with three straight blowout victories over Stetson (71-51), Delaware State (58-37) and South Carolina (71-57). The Tigers returned five of their top seven scorers from last season, and all five have made significant contributions in the early going.

K.J. McDaniels, the top returning scorer, has averaged 17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.3 blocks per game to lead the charge. Rod Hall (10.3 ppg, 3.7 apg), Jordan Roper (10.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.7 apg), Demarcus Harrison (8.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Adonis Filer (6.3 ppg) have all upped their games this season from last year.

Temple simply lost a ton of talent from last year and is in rebuilding mode. It lost four of its top five scorers in Khalif Wyatt (20.5 ppg), Scootie Randall (11.3 ppg), Jake O'Brien (9.8 ppg) and Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson (8.9 ppg). The leading returning scorers are Anthony Lee (9.8 ppg) and Will Cummings (5.8 ppg).

The Owls have struggled in the early going as a result, opening 1-2 with their only win coming at Pennsylvania (78-73). They lost at home to Kent State (77-81) and on the road to Towson State (69-75). This team is clearly in a world of hurt and has no depth. Only eight players have even seen the floor this year, and three of them have been Daniel Dingle (3.3 ppg), Josh Brown (2.0 ppg) and Devontae Watson (1.3 ppg).

With free throws being more important this season, it's certainly worth pointing out the advantage the Tigers will have at the charity stripe in this one. Clemson is shooting 81.4% from the line on an average of 20 free throws per game. Temple is shooting 69.7% from the line on 22 attempts per contest.

This will essentially be a home game for Clemson as it will be played inside TD Bank Arena in Charleston, South Carolina. Plays on a favorite (CLEMSON) - good defensive team from last season - allowed 64 or less points/game, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS since 1997. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in November road games over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. Roll with Clemson Thursday.

15* Clippers/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 211

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Clippers and Thunder. This will be their second meeting in eight days having last played on November 13 in a 111-103 home victory for the Clippers and 214 combined points.

In that game, the total was set at 209.5. As you can see, oddsmakers have adjusted this total up to 211. That has created some line value on the UNDER. Plus, when teams are familiar with one another having recently played, it usually tends to lead to a lower-scoring game the second time around. And, being a National TV game tonight, the defensive intensity will be upped a bit as well.

Los Angeles has played in much lower-scoring games on the road this season than it has at home. The Clippers are scoring 101.5 points and allowing 101.5 points on the road this season, combining with their opponents for an average of 203 points per game. Oklahoma City is scoring 107.7 points and allowing 101.7 points at home, combining with their opponents for roughly 209 points per game. As you can see, both totals are lower than tonight's total of 211, creating some line value.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, first half of the season are 135-70 (65.9%) to the UNDER over the last five seasons. Oklahoma City is 26-12 to the UNDER in home games when playing on two days of rest since 1996. The UNDER is 24-8 in Clippers last 32 Thursday games. The UNDER is 19-6-2 in Thunder last 27 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* UConn/Boston College National TV KNOCKOUT on Boston College +10

I fully expected Boston College to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They returned 96 percent of their scoring from last season, 96 percent of their rebounding and 98 percent of their assists. A 1-3 start has not changed my opinion on this team, but it certainly has created some line value as the Eagles are a 10-point underdog to Connecticut tonight on a neutral floor when they shouldn't be.

A closer look at Boston College's 1-3 start shows that it could easily be 3-1 right now. Two of its losses came on the road to very good teams in Providence (78-82) and UMass (73-86). The other was a home loss to a Toledo (92-95) team that is much better than it gets credit for.

The Eagles returned two of the best players in the ACC in Ryan Anderson (14.9 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Olivier Hanlan (14.6 ppg), who scored 41 points against Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament and finished very strong last year. Both have picked up right where they left off last season. Hanlan is averaging 24.5 points per game, while Anderson has posted 16.2 points per contest. The Eagles are shooting 83.2% from the free throw line, which will come in handy considering the emphasis on more foul calls this season.

Connecticut is overvalued right now due to its perfect 4-0 start to the season. It has played a very soft schedule with three of its wins coming against Yale (80-62), Detroit (101-55) and Boston (77-60). In its only real test of the season, the Huskies failed to cover their 5-point spread in a 78-77 win over Maryland on a neutral floor. This is a quality squad, but they should not be a double-digit favorite over Boston College tonight.

Connecticut is 13-30 ATS off two consecutive homes wins by 10 points or more since 1997. UConn is 0-7 ATS after four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. Boston College is 6-0 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams. These last three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Eagles. Bet Boston College Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Spurs UNDER 192

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs. Neither team is lighting it up offensively this season, and both have been solid on the defensive end, especially the Spurs.

Boston is averaging just 93.4 points per game on the season, including 89.6 points on 41.8% shooting in road games. San Antonio is scoring just 92.0 points per game at home this year. The Spurs have been excellent on the other end, giving up just 89.3 points overall and 85.7 at home. They rank second in the league in defensive efficiency.

Boston is 8-4 to the UNDER in all games this season. San Antonio is 6-1 to the UNDER in its last seven games overall. The Spurs' last two contests have been extremely low scoring with a 92-79 home win over Washington, and a 91-82 triumph at Utah. As this team continues to age, I look for them to play in more lower scoring games in 2013-14.

San Antonio is 9-1 to the UNDER versus poor ball handling teams - committing >=16 turnovers/game over the last two seasons. Boston is 17-6 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Celtics last 10 road games. The UNDER is 30-12-2 in Spurs last 44 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Bucks UNDER 196

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Portland Trail Blazers and Milwaukee Bucks. Both teams play at below-average league paces, especially Milwaukee, which should control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Bucks rank 25th in the league in pace at 94.9 possessions per game. The Blazers are 18th in pace at 96.4 possessions per contest. Milwaukee has been one of the worst offensive teams in the league to boot, scoring just 90.2 points per game on 41.4% shooting. This is honestly one of the worst rosters in the league.

Milwaukee has been even worse offensively of late,scoring an average of 85.0 points per game over its last five contests on 38.5% shooting. Portland has played three straight high-scoring games, which is why I believe this total has been inflated as it is coming off three straight OVERS.

Portland is 31-15 to the UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in three straight games since 1996. The Blazers are 31-17 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 or more points over the past three seasons. The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Bucks last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Pacers/Knicks ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana -6

The Indiana Pacers (9-1) have been the best team in the league to open 2013-14. Off their first loss of the season at Chicago, and with three days of rest in between games having last played on Saturday, I fully expect the Pacers to bounce back with a blowout victory at New York tonight.

The hapless Knicks have opened 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in 2013-14. I expected this team to take a big step back this year with the poor moves they made in the offseason, and that has proven to be the case. Now, injuries have really taken their toll.

The Knicks are without Tyson Chandler, and both Raymond Felton and Metta World Peace are doubtful to play tonight. That leaves an already poor roster very thin going forward. Plus, this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Knicks after falling 86-92 at Detroit last night for their third straight defeat, and seventh loss in nine games.

Indiana is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games following a road loss. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. loss. Indiana is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. The Knicks are 0-6 ATS in all home games this season. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Indiana. Take the Pacers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton +7.5

I believe Dayton came into the 2013-14 season way undervalued after going just 17-14 last season. A closer look shows that this team was much better than its record would indicate.

Indeed, the Flyers played 13 games that were decided by six points or less last season, winning only three of them. That means that only four of their 14 losses came by more than six points. This team was very close to being a 20-plus win team, and I fully expect the Flyers to top that number this season with better fortune in close games.

Archie Miller's team brings back a ton of talent this year. Veteran guard Vee Sanford is back, as is a sophomore class of Dyshawn Pierre, Jalen Robinson, Devon Scott and Khari Price that played 34 percent of the team's minutes as freshmen. Matt Kavanaugh averaged 9.0 points and 5.0 rebounds as a junior, but was suspended all of last season. Jordan Sibert, an Ohio State transfer, is a major find. Freshmen guards Kendall Pollard and Dayshon Smith were big recruits.

All of this talent has led to a 3-0 start for Dayton this season. It is shooting 47.5% from the floor, 48.3% from 3-point range, and 76.2% from the free throw line. Pierre (15.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Price (14.7 ppg), Sibert (11.7 ppg), Devin Oliver (10.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg), Sanford (9.3 ppg) and Kavanaugh (5.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg) have all made major contributions thus far.

Georgia Tech is coming off a huge 80-71 win at in-state rival Georgia, which puts it in a big letdown spot here. I'm not expecting much at all from this team in 2013 after going just 16-15 last year. The Yellow Jackets do have a lot of experience coming back from last year, but the fact of the matter is that the talent just isn't that good.

Dayton is 6-0 ATS after playing three consecutive home games over the last three seasons. Georgia Tech is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS win. The Yellow Jackets are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Georgia Tech is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games following a S.U. win. Take Dayton Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucknell +8.5

The Bucknell Bison are coming off a 28-6 season in which they earned the No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament. While they lost three of their top players, they return all-conference pick Cameron Ayers (12.4 ppg) along with experienced backups in senior Ryan Hill, junior Steven Kaspar and sophomore Ryan Frazier.

I have been really impressed with what I've seen from the Bison en route to a 2-1 start this season. Their only loss came at Stanford by a final of 68-72. They went on the road and beat Penn State 90-80, while also topping St. Francis-PA 72-50 at home.

Bucknell is shooting 52.1% from the floor, 45.3% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line. Ayers (15.3 ppg) and Kaspar (14.3 ppg, 5.7 apg, 5.0 rpg) have led the way, while Ben Brackney (11.7 ppg), Dan Hoffman (11.7 ppg) and Brian Fitzpatrick (9.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg) have been pleasant surprises.

St. John's is coming off a brutal 17-16 campaign last season and I haven't been impressed with what I've seen from the Red Storm so far. They have opened 1-1 with their loss coming against Wisconsin by a final of 75-86 on a neutral floor as a 5-point underdog. Their 73-57 home win over Wagner was far from impressive, too.

The Red Storm are 1-10 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last three seasons. They are actually losing in this spot 65.9 to 70.1, or by an average of 4.2 points per game. St. John's is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a S.U. win. Take Bucknell Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 205

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Washington Wizards. I look for an absolute shootout for four quarters as the final combined score of this one sails way OVER the number.

Minnesota ranks 1st in the league in pace at 102.6 possessions per game. It is also 10th in the league in offensive efficiency at 103.5 points per 100 possessions. Washington likes to play at a fast tempo as well, making for the perfect storm. The Wizards rank 12th in the league in pace at 98.9 possessions per game.

The Timberwolves are putting up 108.5 points per game on the season. Washington has been solid offensively as well, averaging 100.0 points per game. Neither team has played well on the other end. The Timberwolves are giving up 100.2 points per game, while the Wizards are yielding 104.6 points per contest.

Washington is 9-1 to the OVER in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last two seasons. Minnesota is a perfect 10-0 to the OVER off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons. Washington is 10-1 to the OVER in home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Grizzlies/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -8.5

The Los Angeles Clippers want revenge in a big way tonight as they host the Memphis Grizzlies. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Grizzlies last season, but that was largely aided by an injury to Blake Griffin. It's payback time tonight ladies and gents.

The Clippers have looked very sharp of late, winning seven of their last nine games overall while going 6-3 ATS in the process. Offensively, they cannot be stopped, averaging 110.0 points per game on 48.6% shooting. The Clippers are 5-0 at home this year, putting up a ridiculous 118.6 points per game.

Memphis is clearly down this season, opening 5-5 while continuing to struggle offensively. It is averaging just 94.3 points per game overall, including 91.6 on the road where it is 2-3 on the year. This is a very tough spot for the Grizzlies to boot. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Grizzlies are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The home team has won five of the past six meetings with four of those victories coming by double-digits. Roll with the Clippers Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -1.5

East Carolina is showing tremendous value tonight as only a 1.5-point favorite over Norfolk State. This is the NIT Tip Off played at Cameron Indoor Stadium, which is the home of the Duke Blue Devils. With a chance to play Duke next, ECU will certainly want to take care of business tonight to take advantage of that opportunity.

I really like what I've seen from ECU thus far en route to a 3-0 start. It has posted blowout home victories over NC Wesleyan (97-51) and Chowan (95-45), as well as an impressive road win at UNC-Greensboro (85-84). It is scoring 92.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting. It is also hitting 71.2% of its free throws, and outrebounding opponents 47-34 on average. It is holding opponents to 60.0 points on 35.3% shooting.

Norfolk State has been far less impressive en route to a 2-1 start. Its two wins have both come at home against the likes of Newberry (115-95) and Virginia Union (92-84). It lost in its lone road game to Texas Southern (83-95). It is allowing a ridiculous 91.3 points per game on 48.2% shooting. I'll gladly take the better defensive team in this one.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NORFOLK ST) - after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 80 points or more 3 straight games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1997. This is an ECU team that went 23-12 last season and one that is obviously a quality bunch again in 2013. Bet East Carolina Monday.

20* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +9

This is a home-and-home situation for the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors. These teams just played at Golden State Saturday night with the Warriors coming away with a 102-88 home victory. I look for the Jazz to return the favor two nights later and to easily stay within this 9-point spread with an excellent chance to pull off the upset.

Utah has been playing much better of late after a horrendous start. It has gone 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, beating New Orleans 111-105 as a 2.5-point home underdog in the process. It also stayed within its 10-point spread against San Antonio in a 9-point loss.

There's no question that the Jazz are going to be the more motivated team heading into this one. I normally look to back the team that lost the first game in a home-and-home situation, especially if their loss was on the road in the first game. The oddsmakers giving us 9 points to back a team in revenge mode in this situation is simply a gift.

Utah has won four of its last six meetings with Golden State. The Warriors are just 2-3 on the road this season after going 19-22 on the road last year. Golden State is 3-13 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins over the last three seasons. Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games after having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take the Jazz Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on The Citadel +28

Tennessee is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. It has opened 1-1 with its only win coming against lowly USC Upstate at home by a final of 74-65. I fully expect this game to be much closer than this 28-point spread as well as The Citadel is one of the more underrated teams in the country in my opinion.

The Citadel returned four starters from last season, and it is off to a 2-2 start with both of its losses coming on the road by 11 and 15 points, respectively. It has three studs in Matt Van Scyoc (18.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 92.9% free throws), Brian White (15.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 81.2% free throws) and Ashton Moore (13.0 ppg, 6.0 apg, 78.6% free throws).

Marshall Harris III (9.5 ppg, 4.5 apg, 100% free throws) has been a solid contributor as well. With the importance of free throws being at a premium this season, I really like backing teams like The Citadel, which is shooting 75.9% from the charity stripe as a team. It is also only allowing 40.2% shooting to opponents and putting them on the free throw line an average of 19 times per game, so it is sound defensively.

Tennessee only brings back one starters from last season. It certainly has not been impressive in opening 1-1. It is shooting just 38.6% from the field while allowing opponents to shoot 46.8%. The Volunteers have struggled at the free throw line as well, making just 65.5% of their attempts. This team is clearly overrated in the early going, and that was evident in a 74-65 win over USC Upstate.

The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win. The Citadel is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Volunteers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Take The Citadel Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Kings UNDER 189.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings both play at extremely slow paces. As a result, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle when these teams square off Sunday.

Memphis ranks 27th in the league in pace at 94.5 possessions per game. Sacramento is tied with Memphis for 27th, also averaging 94.5 possessions per contest.

Making matters worse for both teams is that neither has been efficient offensively this year. Sacramento is 20th in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging just 99.0 points per 100 possessions. Memphis is even worse, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency at 97.5 points per 100 possessions.

The Grizzlies are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-7 to the UNDER off a road win over the last two years. The UNDER is 17-8 in Grizzlies last 25 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 18-7-2 in Kings last 27 games following a ATS loss. Bet the UNDER in this game.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State -4.5

After a 2-10 start last year with an inexperienced roster, Missouri State really rebounded to finish 11-22. Now, with four starters back, I fully expect this to be one of the most improved teams in the country.

Guard Marcus Marshall (11.5 ppg) and junior Christian Kirk (8.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg) are the top two returnees. After missing all of last season with a knee injury, senior forward Jamar Gulley returns. He averaged 10.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in 2011-12. Northern Colorado transfer Emmanuel Addo is 6'7", 220 pounds. Freshman Tyler McCullough (6'10", 230) is ready to contribute right away.

Missouri State is off to a solid start this season, picking up a 79-67 win at Old Dominion as a 1.5-point favorite. They grabbed 52 rebounds in that game and shot 72.2% from the free throw line, which will be huge with the new rules and tons of fouls being called. Gulley and Marshall led the way with 18 points apiece, while Austin Ruder added 14 points.

Tulsa is a team in rebuilding mode under second-year head coach Danny Manning. Its roster is made up of 12 of 165 players who are either freshmen or sophomores. That inexperience showed in the opener, losing 68-74 at home to Oral Roberts. The Golden Hurricane were outrebounded 28-45 in the loss. What really cost them was going 17-of-36 from the free throw line for 47.2% shooting.

Free throws could easily be the difference in this game, and I like Missouri State's chances of making them a lot more than Tulsa's. With a line of only 4.5, those free throws will be huge. The Bears are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cavaliers/Wizards UNDER 196

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards are two of the most inept offensive teams in the league in 2013-14. They both rank right in the middle of the pack in terms of pace with Washington 12th at 99.2 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 14th with 97.1 possessions per game.

Neither team has been very efficient offensively this season. Washington ranks 20th in offensive efficiency with 99.0 points per 100 possessions, while Cleveland is a woeful 29th in offensive efficiency at 92.0 points per 100 possessions. Only Utah has been worse.

Looking at recent meetings between Washington and Cleveland, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these teams. Each of the last five meetings have seen 187 or fewer combined points with an average of 182.4 combined points/game during that span. That's nearly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 7-0 in the Wizards last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. Throw in the fact that the UNDER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams, and we have a combined 21-0 system backing the UNDER in this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Nebraska-Omaha +13.5

There are so many things to like about Nebraska-Omaha heading into their showdown with UNLV tonight at 10:00 EST. First and foremost, Nebraska-Omaha is in just its second season as a Division 1 team, which makes it under the radar to the general betting public. That's why there is going to be a lot of value on this team until the public starts to realize how good they really are.

Omaha managed to finish in the middle of the pack in the Summit League last year. Now, with six of their top seven scorers back from last season, this is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country. Justin Simmons (16.7 ppg), John Karhoff (12.0 ppg), CJ Carter (9.7 ppg), Alex Phillips (8.2 ppg) and Marcus Tyus (6.0 ppg) are all back.

These five players have led Omaha to a 2-1 start. They went on the road and beat Northern Illinois 68-66 as a 6.5-point underdog, and then they gave a very good Iowa team from the Big Ten all they wanted and more. Omaha would lost 75-83 as a 29.5-point dog, easily covering the spread. The Mavericks came back with a 101-71 home victory over Missouri-KC on Wednesday for their second win of the year.

Carter is off to a hot start, averaging 20.7 points per game. Karhoff (11.0 ppg) and Devin Patterson (10.0 ppg) have played well, too. What's most impressive about Omaha's start is that last year's leading scorer Justin Simmons has been held to just 9.7 ppg on 28.6% shooting. This team is really going to be dangerous once he gets going.

UNLV lost so much talent from last season that it simply cannot replace. It lost three off its top four scorers, including the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 draft in F Anthony Bennett (16.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg). Only Khem Birch (7.2 ppg) and Bryce Dejean-Jones (10.3 ppg) are back who played significant minutes last season. Making matters worse for the Rebels is that Dejean-Jones is nursing a hamstring injury.

Dejean-Jones returned in UNLV's last game, which was an ugly 65-86 home loss to UC-Santa Barbara as an 8.5-point favorite. He was held to 1-of-5 shooting for five points in 16 minutes of action. It was clear that he wasn't healthy, and without him at full strength, the Rebels are in a world of hurt going forward.

With all of the fouls that are being called this season due to the rule changes, free throw shooting becomes a huge factor on which team is going to cover the spread. Omaha is averaging 22-of-28 for 80.7% from the charity stripe in 2013. UNLV is averaging 12-of-24 for 50% from the free throw line this year. As you can see, the Mavericks will have a big edge in free throws in this one.

Plays on an underdog (NEBRASKA-OMAHA) - after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 252-161 (61%) ATS since 1997. The Rebels are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games overall, including 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Take Nebraska-Omaha Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 194

Both Portland and Boston play at slower paces than the average NBA team. Portland ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 95.8 possessions per game. Boston ranks 18th in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.

I look for this game to be played at a snail's pace, which would be nothing new to when these teams have gotten together recently. Each of the last four meetings between the Blazers and Celtics have seen 190 or fewer combined points.

In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 194 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 8-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 194, which dates back to the 2008 season.

Boston is 13-3 to the UNDER In home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 6-2 in Celtics last eight games following a loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bobcats/Cavaliers UNDER 190

The Charlotte Bobcats and Cleveland Cavaliers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This will be their second meetings of the season, with their first resulting in a 90-84 home win by Charlotte for 174 combined points. I look for a similar low-scoring affair in the rematch.

Charlotte ranks 26th in the league in pace, averaging just 95.0 possessions per game. Cleveland is right in the middle of the pack at 15th, averaging 97.6 possessions per game.

Not only are both offenses playing at slow paces, but they are two of the least-efficient units in the NBA as well. Charlotte ranks 28th in offensive efficiency at 94.7, while Cleveland is 29th at 92.7. These numbers represent the amount of points each team scores per 100 possessions.

Mike Browns is 15-4 to the UNDER versus terrible 3 point shooting teams who make less than 30% of their attempts in all games he had coached. The UNDER is 59-26-2 in Bobcats last 87 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 6-0 in Cavaliers last six after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last seven Friday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NDSU/Saint Mary's CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Saint Mary's -6

Saint Mary's came into the season way undervalued due to the loss of leading scorer Mathew Dellavedova. But this is a team that went 28-7 last year and returned plenty of talent to make up for his loss.

That has been evident en route to a 2-0 start with an 83-70 victory over a very good Louisiana Tech team that went 27-7 last year, and an 85-63 triumph against an Akron team that went 26-7 a year ago. That's the same Akron team that beat North Dakota State 68-53 last season.

The Gaels are playing tremendous team basketball with four players averaging 10.0 or more points per game. Brad Waldow is averaging 22.0 points and 5.0 rebounds, and he and Stephen Holt (16.0 ppg, 6.5 apg, 5.5 rpg) are the top two returnees from last year. Both are off to tremendous starts. James Walker III (12.0 ppg) and Beau Levesque (10.0 ppg) have also made key contributions thus far.

One big x-factor in this game is how well Saint Mary's has shot free throws through the first two games. It is averaging 27 makes in 32 attempts per game for a free throw percentage of 85.4%. That is going to be huge all season for the Gaels considering how many more fouls the refs are calling this year than in the past. Meanwhile, North Dakota State went 12-of-21 (57.1%) from the charity stripe in its opening win over Viterbo.

Saint Mary's is a perfect 9-0 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win this this spot 73.7 to 56.2, or by an average of 17.5 points per game. Somehow, the Gaels are undervalued in the early going and I'll take advantage of it. Bet Saint Mary's Thursday.

15* Thunder/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +5

While the Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing to the Clippers last night, I don't look for that to be much of a factor in this one. That's because the Thunder had two days off before last night's game, so they should still be fresh and ready to go. They'll also be motivated following just their second loss of the season.

Golden State is really starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers. It should not be a 5-point favorite in this match-up against what I feel is a better all-around team in Oklahoma City. The only good win the Warriors have this season came at Minnesota, but their other four wins have come against the likes of the Lakers, Kings, 76ers and Pistons.

Oklahoma City has simply owned Golden State in recent meetings. The Thunder have won seven of their last eight meetings with the Warriors with their only loss coming by exactly 5 points. There is clearly some value here with the Thunder as a 5-point underdog given the recent history. Plus, I expect this one to go right down to the wire, so I'd much rather take the points than give them up.

Scott Brooks is a sensational 107-62 ATS after one or more consecutive losses as the coach of Oklahoma City. Golden State is 2-13 ATS in home games after leading its previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days rest. Roll with Oklahoma City Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +6.5

The Phoenix Suns have been the most underrated teams in the league in the early going. They have opened 5-2 straight up and 6-0-1 against the spread through their first seven games of the season. They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as a nice-sized underdog at Portland tonight.

When you look the two losses that Phoenix has suffered this season, it's easy to see that it is legit. It lost at Oklahoma City 96-103 as a 12.5-point underdog, and at San Antonio 96-99 as a 13-point dog. It has won its other five games, including a 104-91 triumph over Portland to open the season.

This is a very balanced Phoenix team that features eight players who are averaging 22 or more minutes per game. Eric Bledsoe has been one of the most valuable players in the league to this point, averaging 20.9 points, 7.3 assists and 1.9 steals per game. He is running the show and proving that he was worth the big offseason trade.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, first half of the season are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Phoenix is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Take the Suns Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pepperdine -1

I fully expect Pepperdine to be improved this season with three starters back, including sophomore forward Stacy Davis. He averaged 11.2 points and 7.3 rebounds last year and was voted WCC Newcomer of the Year.

Davis poured in 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting to lead Pepperdine to an 81-68 win over San Diego Christion in their opener. But the big surprise was center Brendan Lane, who finished with 12 points, 14 rebounds and 7 blocks. Lamond Murray Jr. added 13 points in the win.

UC-Riverside went just 6-25 last season and is clearly in a world of hurt once again in 2013. It opened the season with an ugly 41-77 loss at San Diego State while shooting 30.8% from the floor. Riverside's average home attendance last year was 758, which means that they have very little home-court advantage.

Pepperdine beat Riverside 62-40 last year as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Waves held the Highlanders to just 28.6% shooting in the win as not one player for Riverside scored in double figures.

The Waves are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Pepperdine is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. Riverside is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games. The Highlanders are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games. Riverside is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Pepperdine Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 207

The Lakers and Nuggets both play at very fast paces, and I look for a shootout tonight between these teams because of it. The Lakers rank 2nd in the league in pace with 102.8 possessions per game. The Nuggets aren't far behind, ranking 11th at 100.0 possessions per contest.

One big factor here that is getting overlooked is that Denver is without its best defensive player in JaVale McGee. Without his presence on the inside defensively, and his lack of offense on the other end, this is going to allow for more points being scored for both teams.

When you look at the recent history between the Lakers and Nuggets, it's easy to see that this number has been set too low. Los Angeles and Denver have combined for 227, 217, 240 and 225 points in their last four meetings, respectively. That's an average of 227.3 points per game, which is roughly 20 points more than tonight's posted total of 207.

The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 7-1 in Lakers last 8 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. The OVER is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The OVER is 7-2 in Nuggets last 9 games when playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this series. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Celtics UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Charlotte Bobcats and Boston Celtics Wednesday. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a very low-scoring affair between two of the worst offensive teams in the league.

Both teams play at slower than normal paces. Charlotte ranks 25th in the league at 95.1 possessions per game. Boston ranks 17th at 96.8 possessions per game. Worse yet, Charlotte ranks 28th in offensive efficiency, while Boston ranks 20th in offensive efficiency.

Looking at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Boston and Charlotte have combined for 193 or less points in each of their last five meetings. Dating back further, the Celtics and Bobcats have combined for 193 or fewer points in 11 of their last 12 meetings. That makes for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 193.

Charlotte is 15-3 to the UNDER in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 58-26-2 in Bobcats last 86 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 10-4 in Celtics last 14 games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Kansas/Duke ESPN Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Duke -4.5

The Blue Devils are much better off to start the season than the Kansas Jayhawks. I fully expect them to blow the Jayhawks out of the building at the United Center in Chicago Tuesday.

Freshman phenom Jabari Parker made an immediate impact with 22 points in the Blue Devils' 111-77 rout of Davidson in Friday's season opener.

20* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Washington Wizards +6

After losing by a final of 105-106 at Oklahoma City on Sunday, the Washington Wizards really showed what they are capable of this season. They have rebounded nicely following an 0-3 start, and following that 1-point loss, I look for them to go give Dallas everything it wants and more tonight.

The Mavericks are in a huge letdown spot here. They have a game against the defending champion Miami Heat on deck, and it's only human nature for them to be looking ahead to that contest. They won't come to play with their best effort because of it.

The Wizards are getting a ton of balance this season. They have five players averaging 13.5 points per game or more. You have to remember that Marcin Gortat was traded here just before the season, so it has taken him a few games to get accustomed to the system. He has played well in spite of it, averaging 13.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Washington is 13-3 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Wizards are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. Western Conference opponents. Take Washington Tuesday.

15* VCU/Virginia ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Virginia Commonwealth +4.5

Virginia Commonwealth is one of the best teams in the country this season. It has opened the season ranked in the Top 25 and for good reason. It showed off what it is capable of with a 96-58 home win over Illinois State on November 8, and I fully expect it to go into Virginia and win outright tonight.

VCU returns three starters this season, including leading scoerers Juvonte Reddic (14.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Treveon Graham (15.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg). Also back is Rob Brandenberg (10.4 ppg), Melvin Johnson (6.9 ppg) and Briante Weber (5.4 rpg).

The Rams play a pressure defense that is unmatched by anyone in the country. They get after it for 40 minutes and force opponents into mistakes, which leads to easy buckets the other way for Shaka Smart's club. The Rams forced 22 turnovers in the opener against Illinois State.

The Rams are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. VCU is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games. Virginia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Atlantic 10 foes. This is the best team in the Atlantic 10 in 2013, and it will show tonight. Bet VCU Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Hofstra +33

This play is more of a fade of Louisville than a play on Hofstra. I realize the Pride don't have the talent to hang with Louisville, but they do have enough to stay within 33 points of this ridiculous spread.

I am fading Louisville early in the season due to its reputation as the defending national champs. I believe it is way overvalued after losing its two most important players from last year in center Gorgui Dieng (9.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 2.5 bpg) and point guard Peyton Siva (10.0 ppg, 5.7 apg, 2.3 spg).

I went against Louisville in its opener as a 22-point favorite against College of Charleston. That was a 48-45 game with six minutes remaining before the Cardinals used a ridiculous 22-3 run to close out the game to win 70-48. As you can see, that was a much closer game than the final score would indicate, but if you only saw the final score you wouldn't realize it.

Hofstra has put up 82.0 points per game while opening the season 1-1 with a loss to Monmouth (84-88) and a win over Fairleigh Dickinson (80-58). It is also shooting 47.1% from the field while only averaging 11 turnovers per game. Taking care of the ball will be huge against the Cardinals. Hofstra is 18-5 ATS in road games after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games since 1997. Roll with Hofstra Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -7.5

The Chicago Bulls are way undervalued right now due to their 2-3 start. I believe their 97-73 home victory over Utah on Friday was a more telling sign up what this team is capable, and I fully expect the Bulls to be one of the best teams in the league from here-forward.

Chicago has now had two full days to prepare for Cleveland. In fact, this will only be the 3rd game in 9 days for the Bulls, so they'll be well rested and ready to go. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers will be playing their 7th game in 11 days, so this is certainly a tired team right now.

This has been a one-sided series in recent years to say the least. Chicago has gone 10-1 in its last 11 meetings with Cleveland, and it is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with the Cavaliers. In fact, the Bulls have won nine of their last 10 meetings with Cleveland by 9-plus points.

The Cavaliers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games. The Cavaliers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Throw in the 9-1 system where the Bulls have won nine of 10 vs. Cleveland by nine or more points, and we have a combined 34-3 system backing Chicago in this one. Roll with the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics tonight. These teams just played each other on November 8 three days ago with the Celtics coming away with a 91-89 road victory for 180 combined points.

I was on the UNDER in that game, and I'll certainly be on the UNDER in the rematch tonight. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games, and having played just three days ago, there's no question that favors the defenses in this one.

Brad Stevens is a defensive-minded head coach who will have Boston playing in low-scoring games for most of the season. He values possessions offensively, and makes sure his players work the shot clock to find the best shot available.

It's no surprise that Boston is 5-2 to the UNDER through its first seven games due to Stevens' philosophy, and its lack of scorers to boot. Orlando is also 5-2 to the UNDER in the early going as oddsmakers continually set the totals too high for both of these teams.

Orlando is 10-1 to the UNDER vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 16-7-1 in the last 24 meetings in this series, including 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Boston. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks are showing tremendous value as only a 2.5-point favorite against the lowly Charlotte Bobcats Monday. The Hawks have absolutely dominated this series over the past couple of seasons, and I look for that trend to continue tonight.

Atlanta is off to a 3-3 start this season despite playing a brutal schedule that has featured four road games. All three of its losses have come by nine points or less, including two by exactly two points at the Lakers and at the Nuggets. In my opinion, this will be its easiest game yet.

Charlotte is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers due to its 3-3 start. Its three wins have all come by six points or less, and its three losses have come via blowout at Houston (83-96), at New Orleans (84-105) and versus New York (91-101). Atlanta is outscoring teams by 1.5 points per game on the season, while Charlotte is getting outscored by 5.2 points per game.

The Hawks have won eight straight meetings with the Bobcats dating to a 96-85 home victory April 13, 2011. They have gone 7-1 ATS in the process. Atlanta's average margin of victory during that stretch is 16.3 points per game. Al Jefferson has been hobbled by an injured ankle, and he's questionable to return tonight for Charlotte.

Plays on road favorites (ATLANTA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more are 42-14 (75%) ATS since 1996. Charlotte is 4-17 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better over the last three seasons. Atlanta is 10-1 ATS after two straight games where it attempted 90 or more shots since 1996. Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -12

Davidson went 26-8 last season and reached the NCAA Tournament. It returned senior forward De'Mon Brooks (13.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg) as well as experienced contributors such as point guard Tom Droney, small forward Chris Czerapowicz and shooting guard Tyler Kalinoski.

Wisconsin Milwaukee finished in last place in the Horizon League with an 8-24 record overall and a 3-13 mark in conference play. While point guard Jordan Aaron (12.8 ppg, 3.9 apg conference play) is back, the Panthers return only one other starter from a team that struggled in every phase of the game.

Davidson has set up a brutal non-conference schedule that features the likes of Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Wichita State. After falling 77-111 to a Top-5 Duke team in the opener Saturday, and with Virginia on deck, Davidson knows it must take care of business in the rest of its non-conference games against weaker teams like this one if it wants to get back to the NCAA Tournament.

Brooks had a solid game against Duke, pouring in 24 points and grabbing seven board while going 7-for-9 from the field. Droney also played well, scoring 16 points in the loss. I look for these two players to carry the load against the overmatched Panthers, who fell 62-66 at Loyola-Illinois in their opener.

This is also a revenge game for Davidson, which lost at Milwaukee last year in one of its worst performances of the season. That's a big reason why the Wildcats will not be overlooking the Panthers tonight.

Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Davidson is 6-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last three years. The Wildcats are 11-1 ATS in home games after allowing 85 points or more since 1997. These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Wildcats. Take Davidson Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -2

There's no question that the Phoenix Suns have been one of the biggest surprise teams in the early going. They are off to a 4-2 start this year, which includes a 104-98 win at New Orleans on November 5. That sets the Pelicans up for a big revenge spot here. After losing at home to the Suns, I fully expect them to return the favor five days later.

New Orleans did not look great in the early going, but it has managed to rebound for two straight blowout victories to get back to 3-3 on the season. It won at Memphis (99-84) and topped the Lakers (96-85) at home. Unlike the Suns, I fully believe the Pelicans are here to stay for the long haul with the talent they have on board. Meanwhile, Phoenix will fade as the season progresses due to a lack of overall talent.

Indeed, the Pelicans are loaded with talent. Anthony Davis is averaging 23.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4.3 blocks and 2.0 steals per game to live up to his No. 1 pick status. Eric Gordon (16.5 points) is healthy, while Jrue Holiday (13.7 points, 7.2 assists) and Tyreke Evans (8.5 points) were excellent additions this offseason.

Home-court advantage has meant little when these teams have gotten together over the past couple seasons. In fact, the road team has won five of the last eight meetings while going 6-2 ATS in the process. New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after having won three of its last four games over the past three seasons. Phoenix is 8-21 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days over the last two seasons. Take the Pelicans Sunday.

15* Blazers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5

This is a home-and-home situation between the Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings. Portland won at home last night 104-91, and I fully expect the Kings to come back the more motivated team tonight to protect their home court in the second meeting.

Sacramento has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league. That has been evident in recent meetings with the Blazers, as the Kings have taken three of the past four meetings at home. The home team has won seven of the past nine meetings overall.

Portland had a historically bad bench last season, and its bench has not gotten that much better in 2013. That makes dealing with these back-to-back situation much more difficult on the Blazers than it would be for most teams.

Starters Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum are all averaging at least 34 minutes per game. Head coach Terry Stotts' hand is forced to have his starters play big minutes due to the lack of a bench. Only Mo Williams (7.2 ppg) is averaging more than 4.8 ppg off Portland's bench this year.

Meanwhile, Sacramento has a deep bench. That's evident by the fact that the Kings have a whopping nine players averaging at least 17 minutes per game this season. They bring guys like Ben McLemore, Travis Outlaw, Isaiah Thomas, Jason Thompson and Chuck Hayes off the bench, which is a pretty salty crew.

Portland is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after a win by 10 points or more. The Blazers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after scoring 100 or more points in two straight games. The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with Sacramento Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -3

The Memphis Grizzlies were getting way too much respect to open the season due to making the Western Conference Finals last year. As a result, they have opened the season 0-5 against the spread. Now, the betting public is off this team, which has forced them to set a weak line tonight.

Meanwhile, the Warriors are the flavor of the week in the early going due to their 4-1-1 ATS mark. Now, Golden State is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers, and the roles have reversed. There is a ton of value with Memphis as only a 3-point home favorite tonight.

The Grizzlies will come out determined for a win after opening 2-3 this year. They have had two days off to prepare for the Warriors having last played on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Golden State will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. This will also be the 4th game of a tough 4-game road trip, and there's no question the Warriors are tired, while the Grizzlies are well-rested.

Making matters worse for the Warriors is that Stephen Curry (ankle) is questionable to play tonight after sitting out last night's 74-76 loss at San Antonio. Whether he plays or not, I like the Grizzlies to win and cover, but if he doesn't play it's only an added bonus. Chances are he won't be playing after sitting out last night as 24 hours probably isn't long enough for his ankle to fully recover.

The Warriors tend to struggle without Stephen Curry, but having him hasn't made much of a difference against the Memphis Grizzlies. His importance to the Warriors has been evident when he's missing - especially on the road. They're 16-39 without Curry, dropping 23 of 31 contests away from home.

His status may not matter since the Warriors have dropped nine straight meetings with the Grizzlies, and Curry has averaged 22.9 points in eight of them. He poured in 32 with eight assists and five rebounds in a 99-93 defeat in the most recent visit to Memphis on Feb. 8. The Warriors have lost eight in a row there dating to a victory on April 4, 2008. That is a span of over five years. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Cavaliers UNDER 201.5

This is a home-and-home situation for the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers. These teams met last night in Philadelphia with the 76ers pulling out a 94-79 victory for 173 combined points.

I look for a similar low-scoring affair tonight as these teams square off for a second straight night. There's no question that the familiarity of one another favors the UNDER as the defenses know the opposing offense tendencies. Those tendencies aren't going to change over night.

Taking a look at this series between Philadelphia and Cleveland, its easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER. In fact, each of the last nine meetings have seen 190 or less combined points. They have combined for 173, 168, 184, 175, 165, 190, 188, 183, and 186 points in their last nine meetings, respectively. That's an average of 179.1 combined points/game, which is roughly 22 points less than tonight's posted total of 201.5.

The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 9-0 in Cavaliers last 9 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. These five trends combined for a perfect 27-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5

The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as a mere 1.5-point home favorite over the Indiana Pacers tonight. Off an overtime loss to Washington, Brooklyn is going to come back pissed off and ready to go tonight.

Indiana is way overvalued due to its 6-0 start this season. I faded it with success last night by backing the Raptors +9, and I'll fade the Pacers again tonight. They are in the toughest possible situation, playing their 4th game in 5 nights.

This Indiana team had one of the worst benches in the entire league last year, and it has done little to upgrade its bench in 2013. Not having a bench makes it extremely difficult to play a 4th game in 5 nights.

While Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back, and it went to overtime last night, this will only be its 2nd game in 4 nights. Plus, the Nets have one of the best benches in the league. They have 12 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game, and their bench consists of solid players like Jason Terry, Shaun Livingston, Andray Blatche, Andrei Kirilenko and Reggie Evans.

Brooklyn went 3-0 against Indiana last season. Paul George averaged 13.7 points on 37% shooting in those three contests, while Roy Hibbert has averaged 10.3 points on 38% shooting during a four-game losing streak to Brooklyn. Brook Lopez averaged 21.3 points and 3.0 blocks in last season's series, and he's averaged 22.3 points in 10 meetings against Indiana since the 2009-10 season.

The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The Nets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss. Brooklyn is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Indiana. Roll with the Nets Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +13.5

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog to the Miami Heat Saturday. Boston came into the season undervalued, and that has proven to be the case with its 4-2 ATS mark on the year.

Despite being 2-4 on the season, Boston has yet to lose a game by more than 10 points. Despite being 4-2 on the season, Miami has yet to win a came by more than 12 points. I simply believe this number has been inflated tonight due to the perception that Boston isn't very good, and that Miami is the defending champs.

Miami has a way of playing down to its competition. That's especially the case now that it is back-to-back champs, which makes it hard to get up for regular season games like this one against a team that is perceived to be not very good. The Heat were certainly up for the Clippers last time out, winning 102-97 at home Thursday. However, off such a big win, that sets them up for a letdown tonight.

Lebron James is nursing a sore back, which will certainly have him limited tonight. The Heat used to look at Boston as rivals, but now they have to look at them in a completely different manner with Pierce and Garnett gone. That will leave them in a poor state of mind heading into this one.

Five straight and nine of the last 10 meetings between Boston and Miami have been decided by 13 points or less. The Celtics are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast opponents. The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win. Boston is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 meetings with Miami. Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on College of Charleston +22

I almost always look to fade the champion of the previous NCAA Tournament early in the season the next year. That champ can almost never live up to the hype in the early going, and it has a hard time coming back hungry the following season.

I believe Louisville will take a step back early before improving a ton late, which is the case almost every year for Rick Pitino and company. The Cardinals lost arguably their two best players in Peyton Siva (10.0 ppg, 5.7 apg, 2.3 spg) and Gorgui Dieng (9.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 2.5 bpg). Siva was the leader of the offense, while Dieng was the enforcer on defense.

Charleston is going to make a run at the NCAA Tournament in 2013. It went 24-11 last year for its fourth straight 20-win season. With four starters back from that squad, this team will give Louisville a run for its money tonight. That includes junior guard Anthony Stitt (11.0 ppg, 3.2 apg) and junior center Adjehi Baru (9.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg).

Charleston is 58-28 ATS as a road underdog or pick since 1997. Charleston is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog of 10 or more points. The Cougars are 29-12-1 ATS in their last 42 Saturday games. They played their best basketball on the road last season, going 13-3 away from home. Bet College of Charleston Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +9

The Indiana Pacers are way overvalued due to their 5-0 start this season. They are coming off a huge win over fellow Central Division contender Chicago on Wednesday, setting them up for a big letdown spot here as they host the Toronto Raptors. They also have a road game at Brooklyn on deck tomorrow, which makes this a potential lookahead.

Toronto has been much better than its 2-3 record would indicate. All three of its losses came by nine points or less, and that 9-point setback was against the defending champion Miami Heat.

Home-court advantage has meant absolutely nothing when Indiana and Toronto have gotten together over the last couple of year. In fact, the road team is is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Toronto has won its last two visits to Indiana outright as a 7-point and 9-point underdog, respectively.

Plays against any team (INDIANA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=41% on the season, after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 75-37 (67%) ATS since 1996. Toronto is 14-4 ATS in road games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Raptors are 19-8 ATS in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Magic UNDER 192

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic. Both teams are in rebuilding mode, and each lacks offensive firepower, especially the Celtics.

Boston is only averaging 89.4 points per game despite shooting a solid 47% from the floor this season. That just shows how slow of a pace it plays at, which is no surprise considering head coach Brad Stevens always played at a snail's pace at Butler. The Celtics have been solid defensively, giving up just 93.4 points per game.

Orlando's numbers are a bit inflated due to playing an overtime game against Minnesota that resulted in 235 combined points. However, three of their five games have seen 193 or less combined points. That includes the 98-90 win on Wednesday against one of the best offensive teams in the NBA in the Los Angeles Clippers.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (ORLANDO) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 49-21 (70%) over the last five seasons.

Orlando is 9-1 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 56-33 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game since 1996. The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 road games. The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Celtics last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is is 43-20-2 in Magic last 65 Friday games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Knicks OVER 191

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Charlotte Bobcats and New York Knicks tonight. I look for this to be a shootout with these teams combining for more than 191 points with ease, which has certainly been the case in recent meetings.

Charlotte and New York have combined for 198 or more points in each of their last four meetings. Those four games have seen 199, 201, 213 and 198 points for an average of 202.8 points/game. That includes Charlotte's 102-97 road victory on November 5 just three days ago.

Now, Tyson Chandler has suffered an injury that will keep him out for the next 4-to-6 weeks. That's a huge loss for New York as they'll be playing without their former Defensive Player of the Year. That will open things up a lot for opposing offenses, and it will force the Knicks to be even more perimeter-oriented offensively than they already are. This should lead to easy buckets for opposing teams on long rebounds with fast break opportunities.

New York is 27-9 to the OVER after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more shots than opponent since 1996. Charlotte is 24-13 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. The Bobcats are 16-5 to the OVER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. New York is 12-4-2 to the OVER in its last 18 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Maryland/UConn 2013 CBB Season Opener on Connecticut -4.5

Connecticut once again has something to play for after failing to qualify for the NCAA tournament last season because of poor academic progress rates. The 18th-ranked Huskies are flying under the radar heading into the 2013-14 season due to not being eligible for the NCAA Tournament last year. They should be laying more than 4.5 points to Maryland in the opener.

UConn went 20-10 last season but had to watch other teams battle for the title in the NCAA tournament. The Huskies are once again eligible for postseason play, and junior guard Ryan Boatright says they also are very hungry.

"We know how it felt last year to put everything on the line every game and not get a chance to play for a ring like a lot of teams we watched in the tournament that we beat," he said. "It hurt watching the tournament. But, to have that pain stuck inside of us and to know that we've got a chance to win this year, it just motivates us."

Boatright and backcourt running mate Shabazz Napier both passed up a chance at the NBA draft to return this season. They will be joined by the rest of the 2012-13 starters - Omar Calhoun, DeAndre Daniels and Tyler Olander.

"We're going to be really great," said Daniels, who averaged more than 22 points over his last four games last season. "I feel like guys on this team are working even harder to try and win every game."

Maryland loses its best player in 7-1 center Alex Len to the NBA. While it does have some nice experience coming back, this NIT team from last year simply does not have the talent to match up with Connecticut. Bet the Huskies Friday.

20* Hawks/Nuggets Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -3

As one of two winless teams on the season, the Denver Nuggets (0-3) are clearly highly motivated for their first victory of the year. I look for them to take out their frustration Thursday on the Atlanta Hawks, who are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

The good news is that Denver has had plenty of practice time to get things straightened out. It is the only team in the entire league to have played just three games to this point in the season. New head coach Brian Shaw has had extra time to implement his systems, and I look for that extra practice to start paying off as soon as tonight.

It started to pay off in their last game against the San Antonio Spurs. The Nuggets held a 78-72 lead entering the fourth quarter against the defending Western Conference champs, only to get outscored 30-16 in the final period to lose 94-102. If they can hang with the Spurs, they can certainly beat the Hawks by more than three points tonight.

I don't believe the Hawks have shown enough to be getting this much respect from the books as only a 3-point road dog to the Nuggets, who have historically been one of the best home teams in the league. Atlanta's two wins came against Toronto (102-95) and Sacramento (105-100). It also fell at Dallas (109-118) and at the Lakers (103-105).

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge when the Hawks and Nuggets get together in recent years. Indeed, the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series. Denver has won six straight home meetings with Atlanta, and five of the last six meetings in this series overall.

The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Denver is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 home games against Southeast Division opponents. The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games versus good offensive teams that score 103 or more points per game. Bet the Nuggets Thursday.

15* Clippers/Heat TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this showdown between the Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat. These National TV games usually bring out the best in team defense, and I look for that to be the case tonight in this matchup between two of the top contenders to win the NBA Title in 2013-14.

I believe this number has been inflated largely due to both teams going OVER the total frequently in the early going. Los Angeles is 4-1 to the OVER thus far, while Miami is 4-1 to the OVER as well. Oddsmakers have been forced to set this number higher than it should be because the betting public is going to continue pounding the OVER in this game tonight. I'll go the other way.

Let's take a look at the two meetings between Miami and Los Angeles last year. In their first meeting on November 14, the books set the total at 197 and they combined for 207 points to go OVER the number. In their second meeting on February 8, they set the total at 193 and they went OVER again with 200 combined points. Now, they've set the total at 210.5 points, which is way higher than last year's two totals, which further proves my point that there is a ton of value on the UNDER.

While the Clippers have been soft defensively thus far, there's no question that head coach Doc Rivers won't stand for it for much longer. They are coming off their best defensive performance of the season last night, though they still lost 90-98 at Orlando for 188 combined points. I look for them to continue to make strides defensively tonight against the Heat.

The UNDER is 23-8 in Clippers last 31 Thursday games. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Heat's last six Thursday games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Heat's last eight home games. Miami is 15-5 to the UNDER in home games after making 85% of their free throws or better over the last three seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 185

The Utah Jazz and Boston Celtics are two of the worst teams in the league in 2013. Both are 0-4 to start the year and each will be hungry for their first victory. I look for both teams to bring max effort defensively in this one in search of that elusive first win.

Brad Stevens ran a very slow tempo at Butler, and he has brought his same philosophy to these Celtics. Playing at home, Boston will control the tempo in this one and make this a half-court game from start to finish, limiting the possessions for both teams.

Both squads have been atrocious offensively in 2013. Boston is scoring just 87.5 points per game despite shooting a respectable 45.5%, which shows how slow of a tempo it plays at. Utah is putting up 90.7 points per game on 40.4% shooting this season.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtis last six games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last five road games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a huge letdown spot here. They are coming off a big win over the Houston Rockets on Monday night, and they have an even bigger game against the defending champion Miami Heat on deck Thursday in a game that will be nationally televised on TNT. I fully expect them to be overlooking the Orlando Magic tonight.

Everyone has been overlooking the Magic this season due to finishing with the worst record in the league a year ago. This team is much-improved, going 2-2 straight up and a perfect 4-0 against the spread. Its two losses came on the road with one in overtime against Minnesota. Its two wins came at home via blowout with a 110-90 win over New Orleans, and a 107-86 victory over Brooklyn.

Los Angeles is one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season. It is giving up 112.5 points per game and 48.2% shooting, so Doc Rivers hasn't been able to make up for the lack of defensive talent in the early going. Orlando is putting up 104.7 points per game on 46.6% shooting, including 43.5% from 3-point range.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, first half of the season are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Magic are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. Orlando is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 meetings with Los Angeles. Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* Bulls/Pacers ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +3

The Chicago Bulls have obviously not played up to their potential en route to a 1-2 start this season. However, this is a resilient team, and with three days off heading into this showdown with the Indiana Pacers, I fully expect them to correct their mistakes and to come away with a win tonight against NBA Central Division rival Indiana.

The Pacers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 99-91 win at Detroit last night. That gives the Bulls a huge edge in rest and preparation heading into this one. Not only will they want it more, they will be more better prepared than Indiana to come away with a victory tonight.

"You've got to correct things immediately; you got to put the work into it," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau told the team's official website. "You can't hope it to happen; you have to make it happen. And we need everybody doing it. We can't rely on a certain two or three guys to do everything. Our entire team is needed. This isn't a Derrick issue, this is a team issue and we have to correct it."

Chicago is 14-6 against Indiana with Derrick Rose in the lineup. Thibodeau is 33-13 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 26-9 ATS off a loss by six points or less as the coach of Chicago. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -1.5

The Washington Wizards are highly motivated for their first win of the season Wednesday night. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that they already lost to the Philadelphia 76ers by a final of 102-109 at home on November 1, so they will be seeking revenge, too.

Philadelphia is way overvalued after a 3-1 start with three wins by seven points or fewer. The fact of the matter is that this team lacks talent, and its true colors showed last time out in a 90-110 home loss to the Golden State Warriors.

Washington has had two days off since a 93-103 loss at Miami on Sunday. It comes in fully rested and fully prepared to avenge its earlier loss to the 76ers. Look for John Wall and company to come out with their best effort of the season tonight to get the win and cover.

Washington is 18-6 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponents over the past two seasons. Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS after coving three of its last four against the spread over the past two years. The Wizards are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Rockets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1.5

The Houston Rockets are in a very tough situation tonight. They will be playing their 4th game in 5 days after losing 118-137 to the Los Angeles Clippers last night. There's no question that game took a lot out of them as the Clippers simply ran them to death. That obviously makes matters worst heading into their 4th game in five nights at Portland Tuesday.

The Trail Blazers will have a huge edge in rest in this one. They actually come in on two days' rest since their 115-105 home victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday, November 2. That followed up an even more impressive 113-98 road win at Denver the previous night. There's no question this team is improved.

Portland had one of the best starting fives in the league last season led by LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum. All four of those guys are back to lead the way, and they're combining to average roughly 80 points per game between them. The Blazers' problem last year was that they had no bench.

Well, Portland has shored up that area as well. Not only is Robin Lopez an upgrade over J.J. Hickson as the starting center, but guys like Mo Williams, Dorell Wright and Thomas Robinson are now manning the Blazers' bench. That's a huge upgrade over last year's bench, which was historically one of the worst that the NBA has ever seen. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the Blazers in a very favorable spot Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavericks/Lakers UNDER 214.5

Oddsmakers are overreacting from the high-scoring nature in the early going of both Lakers and Mavericks games. While there's no question that the Mavericks have been impressive offensively, while the Lakers have upped the tempo a bit, this total is simply set too high and there's a ton of value with the UNDER.

The Lakers are only scoring 100.0 points per game this season. They clearly miss Kobe Bryant on offense and have to make up for his absence by playing better on the defensive end. While it hasn't always been pretty, the Lakers have been much better on that side of the ball of late, allowing 91 points to the Spurs and 103 to the Hawks in their last two contests.

When you look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The Lakers and Mavericks have combined for 209 or less points in 16 of their last 17 meetings. The only game they didn't was a 112-108 overtime victory for the Lakers on 4/15/2012. That game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation for 196 combined points.

So, not counting overtime, the Lakers and Mavs have combined for 209 or less in 17 straight meetings, making for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 2010. I understand these teams are different this year, but not different enough to warrant this ridiculous 214.5-point total. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Rockets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers (2-1) want to make a statement tonight against the 3-0 Houston Rockets. They come in on two days' rest having last played on Friday, while this will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Rockets.

Getting two days to prepare for Houston is pretty big. The Rockets are one of the more tough teams to prepare for due to their versatility offensively. I really like the Clippers having DeAndre Jordan, who can match up with Dwight Howard about as well as anyone in the league.

Houston comes in overvalued due to its 3-0 start that has come against a pretty soft schedule. It has home wins over Charlotte and Dallas, as well as a road win at Utah thus far. Los Angeles' 126-115 home win over Golden State was impressive to say the least. I look for a similar result tonight.

The Clippers have won five of the last six meetings in this series. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rockets are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win. Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Phoenix Suns +13.5

The Phoenix Suns are way undervalued to open the 2013-14 season. They are perceived as rebuilding, but they have Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe carrying a new era in Phoenix.

As a 13-point underdog today, the Suns are obviously getting no respect from oddsmakers. They have opened 2-0 this year with wins over both the Blazers and Jazz. I like what I've seen from them thus far, and they should not be a 13-point dog to the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is not the same team it is when Russell Westbrook is healthy. We saw that in the playoffs last year, and we're seeing it in the early going. The Thunder barely beat the Jazz 101-98, and they were thoroughly dominated by the Timberwolves 81-100 last time out.

The Suns are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. The Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Not surprisingly, all seven of those games have come without Russell Westbrook. Bet the Suns Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2

Both the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight. However, there are two big advantages that the Mavericks have in this situation.

Dallas played in Houston last night, so it won't be a very long flight North back to Dallas. Memphis played at home last night, so it's definitely going to a long flight for the Grizzlies. Couple that with the fact that the Grizzlies played an overtime game against Detroit, and the advantage clearly goes to the Mavs in terms of rest and travel.

Coach Rick Carlisle did an excellent job of managing players' minutes last night, and it showed that this Dallas team is very deep. No player played more than 32 minutes last night, which was Monta Ellis, who is a young guard who can handle the load of playing a back-to-back. Nine different players played at least 13 minutes, and 11 players got into the game in all.

What I really liked to see was how well the bench performed. Gal Mekel had 11 points and six assists in 23 minutes, DeJuan Blair had 11 points and 10 rebounds in 18 minutes, and Jae Crowder had 15 points in only 13 minutes. Knowing that these bench players are capable of performing gives Carlisle a lot of options going into tonight. Plus, the Mavericks only shot 38.0 percent from the floor and still hung with the Rockets, only losing by a final of 105-113. That shows a a lot about this team as well.

Memphis has one of the worst benches in the entire league. As a result, six players were forced to play the majority of the minutes last night against Detroit. Five players played at least 32 minutes, while none of the other five players that played were able to contribute double-digit points. Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph each played 36-plus minutes against the Pistons. The Grizzlies simply rely too heavily on this trio, and that will take its toll tonight.

I just strongly feel that the Grizzlies were overrated coming into the season due to making the Western Conference Finals last year. They were gifted that trip to the conference finals thanks to an injury to Blake Griffin for the Clippers in the first round, and an injury to Russell Westbrook for the Thunder in the second. Their true colors showed in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Spurs in the West Finals.

After opening 0-2 ATS in 2013-14, it's clear that I was right when saying this team was overvalued. It still is overvalued as only a 2-point underdog to the Mavericks on the road tonight. Conversely, Dallas came into the season undervalued due to going 41-41 last season. But it was playing without Dirk Nowitzki for much of the year, and once he came back, the Mavericks went on a nice run just to get back to .500 on the season.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. In fact, the home team has won six of the last seven meetings between the Mavericks and Grizzlies dating back to 2012. Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games playing on 0 days' rest. The Mavericks are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS loss. Dallas is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Mavericks Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +8

The Detroit Pistons are one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into the 2013-14 season. That was evident in their opener as they dismantled Washington 113-102 as only a 2.5-point home favorite. The Wizards are a hot pick this season to be much-improved, so it was a really good win.

I love what Detroit has done this offseason. It has brought in Josh Smith, Chauncey Billups and Brandon Jennings. While Jennings is out with an injury, the Pistons did not miss him much as they scored 113 points on 50% shooting. Will Bynum had 19 points while Billups scored 16 to lead the Pistons' backcourt.

But the real reason this team is going to be so tough going forward is the length of the three big men in Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. Monroe and Drummond were already arguably the most underrated big man tandem in the league, and when you throw Smith into the mix, this is going to be a tough team to deal with. Monroe scored 24 points in the opener, while Smith (19) and Drummond (12) had solid games as well.

Conversely, I believe the Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most overrated teams heading into 2013-14. That's because they made the Western Conference Finals last year. However, they were aided by an injury to Blake Griffin in their series win over the Clippers, and then Russell Westbrook missed the entire series in the Conference Semifinals for Oklahoma City.

Memphis' true colors showed in the conference finals as they were swept in four games by the Spurs. The Grizzlies did nothing to improve their team this offseason, especially offensively. They lost 94-101 to San Antonio in the opener in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they shot just 41.9 percent from the floor. Sure, Memphis is going to be a good defensive team again this season, but so is Detroit with their trio of big men.

Detroit is 72-49 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1996. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. win. Detroit is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. the Pistons are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 or more points in its previous game. These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Pistons. Take Detroit Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 188

The books have set the bar way too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. Both of these teams are going to be solid defensively this year, but each is also going to be terrible offensively. That couldn't have been more evident than in the openers for each on Wednesday.

Milwaukee lost 83-90 at New York in its opener while shooting just 45.9 percent from the floor. It did allow 50.7 percent shooting to the Knicks, but so for such a low-scoring game, that just shows the kind of slow pace they played at. Boston lost 87-93 at Toronto despite shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Again, it was such a low scoring game due to the slow pace.

Brad Stevens is the new head coach at Boston. At Butler in college, Stevens always got the most out of this teams behind a suffocating defense. He even took the Bulldogs to the NCAA Championship twice, which is simply remarkable. He did that despite having a below-average offensive team in terms of points per game because they played at such a slow pace and relied on defense.

Milwaukee boasts two of the best defensive big men in the league. Larry Sanders and John Henson have a ton of length and can alter shots as well as any tandem in the NBA. However, neither player is gifted offensively. So this is certainly going to be a defensive-minded Bucks team, especially after letting go of Monte Ellis and Brandon Jennings in the offseason.

Both teams have injuries to guards that are really going to hamper their offensive production in the early going, and force them to play at an even slower pace. Milwaukee is expected to be without starting point guard Brandon Knight and backup point guard Luke Ridnour, leaving the unproven Nate Wolters to handle the PG duties. Boston is without Rajon Rondo (knee), while backup PG Avery Bradley is questionable with a head injury.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this series. Had one of those games not gone to overtime, the UNDER would be 8-1. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six vs. NBA Central opponents. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bucks last five road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four vs. NBA Atlantic foes. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be hungry for their first win of the season on Friday as they return home to face the Toronto Raptors. Despite allowing 57.1% shooting at Dallas on Wednesday, they hung tough and lost by a final of 109-118.

Obviously, the defense isn't going to be nearly as bad at home, and Toronto isn't going to be nearly as hot at Dallas was the other night. The offense looked solid in scoring 109 points, and head coach Mike Budenholzer has been preaching defense heading into this one, especially in transition.

"If you sprint back, you've got to take care of the basket first, and then the ball and then the most dangerous (potential shooter) - in that order," Budenholzer said. "A lot of times if it truly is transition, you don't end up with your own man."

Point guard Jeff Teague had 24 points, nine assists and four steals while doing a nice job triggering Budenholzer's new offense. Newcomer Paul Millsap scored 20 points from the power forward spot previously manned by Josh Smith, and another newcomer, Cartier Martin, added 17 points off the bench.

"We were running back to our own man; that's stuff you learn in second grade," Teague said. "They were getting easy baskets. We've got to get back in transition and match up. It doesn't matter who you guard. We made mistakes. We're learning. We're a new team. We'll get better."

I strongly believe the Hawks are underrated heading into the season due to the trade of Josh Smith in the offseason. Well, they return almost everyone except Smith, and Paul Millsap is an ample replacement. In fact, he is arguably the single-most underrated player in the entire league.

I was more impressed with how the Hawks hung tough in Dallas in a losing effort than I was with Toronto's 93-87 home victory over Boston to open the season. The Celtics are in full-blown rebuilding mode, and the Raptors struggled to put them away as an 8-point favorite. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight, while the Hawks aren't getting enough.

Atlanta has won nine of its last 11 meetings with Toronto. Bet the Hawks Friday.

20* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 203

Two of the best offensive teams in the entire league will be on display Thursday night when the Los Angeles Clippers match up with the Golden State Warriors on TNT. I look for a shootout between these teams tonight.

According to some preseason rankings that I trust very much, the Clippers are projected to be the most efficient offensive team in the league. That's easy to see when they have Chris Paul and Blake Griffin surrounded by deadly accurate 3-point shooters like J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes, along with proven scorer Jamaal Crawford.

Even in an off night, the Clippers managed over 100 points in their 103-116 loss to the Lakers to open the season. I also expected this team to struggle defensively due to the personnel with below-average defenders like Redick and Jamaal Crawford. That was certainly the case against the Lakers.

Golden State opened its season last night by putting up a big number on the Lakers, winning 125-94 at home. With deadly shooters in Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry, this squad is going to be tough to defend, just as it was in the playoffs last year.

Taking a look at previous meetings between these teams from last season, it's easy to see that there is some value with the OVER tonight. The Clippers and Warriors combined for 205, 204, 209 and 224 points in their four meetings last year. As you can see, they topped 203 points each meeting, and they averaged 210.5 combined points in the four contests.

The OVER is 8-1 in Clippers last nine games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. The OVER is 16-5-1 in Clippers last 22 games vs. division opponents. The OVER is 11-2 in Warriors last 13 vs. division opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER 189

This is a rematch from the playoffs last year where the San Antonio Spurs swept the Memphis Grizzlies in four games. There's no question that these teams are very familiar with one another, which will lead to a defensive battle tonight in the season opener for both teams.

Miraculously, four of the last eight meetings between the Spurs and Grizzlies have gone to overtime. I believe that's a big reason why this total has been inflated. The betting public doesn't always realize this, and they just see that the over/under ratio is 4-4 in the last eight games in this series.

A closer look really shows how the Spurs and Grizzlies consistently play in defensive battles. If you exclude overtime, then I find that the last eight meetings have seen 179, 172, 170, 188, 182, 185, 190 and 174 combined points at the end of regulation.

As you can see, only once did the Spurs and Grizzlies combine to score more than 188 points in the last eight meetings. When you average it out, they have combined for 180.0 points per game on average in the last eight meetings at the end of regulation. That's a full nine points below tonight's posted total of 189.

I have seen nothing from the Spurs and the Grizzlies in the offseason that makes me believe either team will be better off offensively this season. In fact, in my defensive efficiency ratings which factors in points allowed per 100 possessions, San Antonio ranks as the No. 1 defensive teams in the league, while Memphis checks in at No. 3 heading into the 2013-14 season.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 75%) from last season are 40-15 (72.7%) over the last five seasons. With an added intensity due to meeting in the playoffs last year, I look for this to be an absolute defensive battle tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -12

A year after striking gold with James Harden in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Houston Rockets have now landed the biggest-named free agent on the market in Dwight Howard. After making the playoffs last season, the Rockets are now primed to make a deep run in the postseason with two superstars leading the way.

What makes the Rockets so deadly now is that they have a ton of quality pieces surrounding Howard and Harden. Omer Asik will combine with Howard to form one of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA. Patrick Beverly and Jeremy Lin are battling for playing time, and each is an above-average point guard in this league. Chandler Parsons is a deadly accurate 3-point shooter who can do a little bit of everything.

While the Charlotte Bobcats made a big splash in the offseason to finally get a scoring big man in Al Jefferson, the fact of the matter is that they won't be much better off in 2013-14. Plus, Jefferson is questionable to play Wednesday as he battle a nagging ankle injury. While I fully expect him to suit up, this is a terrible matchup for he and the Bobcats.

Houston loves to run the pick and roll, and Jefferson routinely ranks among the league's worst in defending the pick-and roll. A banged-up Jefferson will be even more vulnerable against Harden, Beverly, Lin and company in pick-and-rolls. Then there's Ben Gordon, who finished 5.6 points worse per 100 possessions than the average defender last season, which was the worst mark in the entire league by a wide margin.

After opening 7-5 last season, Bobcats' fans believed that it was going to be their year. It turns out that they won all six games that were decided by five points or fewer, including a double-overtime win against the winless Wizards for victory No. 7. It also turns out that only one of those seven teams finished with better than a .500 record. Charlotte would go on an 18-game losing streak thereafter, while also posting a 7-47 record over its next 54 games. The Jefferson signing isn't going to just make all of their problems go away.

Houston has absolutely owned Charlotte in recent meetings, and that was before it landed Howard this offseason. The Rockets are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bobcats. Four of the five victories came by 12 or more points. Houston has won by 14, 20 and 16 points in its last three home meetings with Charlotte.

The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The favorite is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston. Charlotte is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games. The Bobcats are 14-37 ATS in their last 51 vs. Western Conference opponents. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +2

The New Orleans Pelicans are going to be one of the most improved teams in the league this season. After missing a lot of time last season, both Eric Gordon and Anthony Davis are healthy to start to the 2013-14 campaign. These are the cornerstones of the franchise, so that's very important.

With two of the best moves of the offseason, the Pelicans have added point guard Jrue Holiday and shooting guard Tyreke Evans, which will be a huge addition to the offense. They have two shooters who can stretch the floor in Ryan Anderson and Anthony Morrow. This is now one of the deepest lineups in the league.

Only the Chicago Bulls (8-0) posted a better preseason record than New Orleans, which went 7-1. Davis picked up right where he left off last season when healthy, averaging 19.9 points and 5.9 rebounds in 27.4 minutes per game in the preseason. Gordon put up 17.0 points in an average of 20.8 minutes per game. Holiday added 11.8 points and 6.1 assists, while Morrow (12.5 points) and Anderson (11.9 points) provided a scoring punch as well.

The Indiana Pacers are coming off an unconvincing 97-87 win over Orlando in their opener Tuesday night. They trailed by four points at halftime against arguably the worst team in the league in the Magic. Also, Roy Hibbert banged up his knee, while Paul George jammed his finger in the win. While both players are expected to play, there's no question this is concerning for Indiana fans.

Indiana's bench was one of the worst in the league last season. It hasn't gotten much better in the offseason, either. That's key here because the Pacers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their starters played big minutes last night. I know it's still early, but playing the second of a back-to-back hurts teams like the Pacers without a bench more than it would a team like the Clippers with a deep bench. Plus, Danny Granger remains out, which makes the Pacers' bench even more thin.

The home team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win. The Pelicans are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on three or more days' rest. Take New Orleans Wednesday.
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15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pistons UNDER 190.5

The Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons will be two of the better defensive teams in the league in 2013-14. I look for that to show in the opener as these teams take part in a defensive battle Wednesday night in Detroit.

With the addition of Josh Smith, the Pistons boast a formidable frontcourt that will not allow many easy baskets around the rim. Andre Drummond came into his own last season as a shot blocker and rebounder, and he is only going to get better a year later. Greg Monroe is also a solid defender, though not quite to the level of Smith and Drummond.

A big key here is that Brandon Jennings is going to miss the first week or two of the season due to injury. Jennings was added to provide some offense at the point guard position, and the Pistons will miss his ability to create shots for teammates and himself in the early going. Chauncey Billups is a candidate to take his place. I like the toughness that Billups brings to the table as one of the best perimeter defenders the league has ever seen. However, he's not quite the offensive player he once was, much more preferring to play off the ball these days.

Washington was one of the most underrated defensive teams in the league last season, which was evidenced by their 45-34-3 UNDER record. Once John Wall returned from injury in January, the Wizards gave up just 99.7 points per 100 possessions, which was the sixth-best mark in the entire league from that point-on. This team features a bunch of plus-defenders who play big minutes, such as Bradley Beal, Nene Hilario, Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Ariza.

Taking a look at recent meetings between the Wizards and Pistons, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with this UNDER Wednesday. The Pistons and Wizards have combined to score 191, 181, 183, 168, 193, 156 and 175 points in their last seven meetings, respectively. That's an average of 178.1 points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total.

Washington is 11-1 to the UNDER as a road underdog of six points or less over the last two seasons. The Wizards are 40-15 to the UNDER in their last 55 road games overall. According to my adjusted defensive ratings, I have Washington listed as the 5th-best defense in the league, while Detroit features the 9th-best defense in 2013-14. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +8

The New York Knicks are one of the most overrated teams in the league heading into the 2013-14 season. This line is certainly a reflection of that as I believe the Milwaukee Bucks are much more evenly-matched with the Knicks than this line would indicate. I'll take full advantage and pounce on the points in the opener for both teams Wednesday.

The Knicks were a dominant team before Amare Stoudemire returned last season. They won 70.4 percent of games in the early going, but when Stoudemire returned in January, they went on to win just 55.2 percent of the rest of their games. He doesn't fit in this offense, but the money they are paying him forces coach Mike Woodson's hand to put him in the lineup.

J.R. Smith had an excellent year last season, earning Sixth Man of the Year honors. However, he struggled in the playoffs and is coming off knee surgery. Plus, he will be serving a five-game suspension to open the season due to violating the league's substance abuse problems. Without his energy and shot-making off the bench, this is just a mediocre team.

In perhaps the worst move of the offseason, New York traded for former Raptor Andrea Bargnani. He offers nothing of what New York needs and everything it should avoid. The injury-prone Bargnani shot just 39.9 percent from the floor and 30.9 percent from 3-point range when healthy enough to play in Toronto last year. He also averaged a measly 4.6 rebounds per 36 minutes played last year, which is unacceptable for a 7-footer. Bargnani is expected to start, and he severely handicaps New York's defense, making Tyson Chandler's job much more difficult than it should be.

Now to the Bucks, who quietly had a very productive offseason. I love the fact that they got rid of Brandon Jennings and Monte Ellis, who simply hijacked the offense with ill-advised shots. In fact, Ellis and Jennings combined for the third-most field goal attempts of any duo in the league last season, finishing only behind Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and New York's Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith. After the Bucks ranked just 23rd in offensive efficiency last season, it was time for them to go.

Milwaukee has now shifted its focus to building around two of the most underrated players in the league in Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders. Ilyasova scored 13.2 points to go along with 7.1 rebounds and 44.4 percent from 3-point range last season. He becomes the go-to scorer on this team, but the additions of O.J. Mayo, Caron Butler and Brandon Knight will help take a big part of the scoring load off his shoulders.

Then there's Sanders, who is one of the best defenders in the league after leading the NBA in block percentage and finishing third in total blocks. He also improved as a rebounder, averaging 13.9 boards per 40 minutes of floor time. To better understand his importance, the Bucks were 5.0 points per 100 possessions were defensively when Sanders was on the bench last season.

Sanders will team with John Henson for a formidable frontcourt filled with length and athleticism. Luke Ridnour provides a veteran presence to back up Knight at the points, while Gary Neal brings some solid scoring off the bench. Milwaukee is an astounding 48-19-2 ATS in its last 69 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. It is also 7-3 ATS in its last visits to New York. Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

25* NBA Season Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +4.5

The Chicago Bulls are going to want revenge from their loss to the Miami Heat in the conference semifinals last year. It's remarkable that the Bulls were able to even get to the second round with all of the injuries they suffered last season.

Derrick Rose missed the entire year, and Luol Deng came down with an unexpected sickness in the playoffs. Not to mention, Richard Hamilton, Joakim Noah, Kirk Hinrich and Taj Gibson would combine to miss 87 games during the regular season.

The experience this team gained will go a very long way into making them a championship-caliber squad going forward. Guys like Deng, Jimmy Butler, Carlos Boozer, Noah, Gibson and Hinrich all had to step up their games and play bigger roles.

Now, with the return of Rose, the rest of these players won't have to just stand around and watch him operate. They know they can contribute, because they did last season. Also, the addition of Mike Dunleavy gives this team a deadly accurate 3-point shooter that has been much-needed since the loss of Kyle Korver a few years back.

Chicago rolled to an 8-0 record in the preseason due to the play of Rose. He averaged an absurd 20.7 points over 27.4 minutes per game while showing off his improved range, hitting on 12-of-27 (44.4%) from behind the 3-point line.

Lebron James has only fueled the fire for the Bulls. "We don't like them, they don't like us," James said of the Bulls after practice Monday. "It's not unheard of. We all know how it is."

"It don't matter who it is," James said of the opponent for the opener. "But we like the fact that it's the Bulls." Considering Chicago has been knocked out of the playoffs two of the last three years by Miami, James would have been wise to keep quiet heading into this one.

Miami will be raising its 2012-13 championship banner and getting its rings before the game. That in itself is a huge distraction, and one that will not help the Heat as they take on what I believe to be the best team in the Eastern Conference in the Bulls.

This is a very familiar spot for the Heat on both sides of the spectrum. After the Heat won the title in 2006, the Bulls promptly put a quick end to their celebration on opening night, winning 108-66. The Heat were in the Bulls' shoes two years ago. After losing to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2011 finals, they got revenge in the 2011-12 opener by blasting the defending champs by double-digits.

Few teams can match up with the Heat quite like the Bulls. Deng and Butler are two of the best wing defenders in the league. With these two on James and Wade, respectively, the Bulls can make life very difficult on Miami's stars.

I look for Chicago to quickly put an end to Miami's ring ceremony and banner raising celebration by winning outright on opening night. I'll just take the points for some added insurance. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* Magic/Pacers NBA Season Opener on Orlando +12

The Orlando Magic come into the season way undervalued due to finishing with the league's worst record in 2012-13. Conversely, the Indiana Pacers enter the season overvalued due to taking the Miami Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals last year. As a result, I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Magic as a double-digit dog in the opener.

Arron Afflalo is coming off his best season as a pro, finishing with career highs in points, rebounds and assists. Jameer Nelson enters 2013-14 healthy, while the No. 2 overall pick in Victor Oladipo is ready to show that he's an up-and-coming star in this league. Nikola Vucevic is one of the most underrated players in the NBA after a year in which he was a double-double machine.

The ankle injury to Tobias Harris hurts, but Andrew Nicholson showed some great signs over the summer and into the preseason. He scored a team-high 60 points for Canada in the FIBA Americas, hitting 6-of-7 shots from beyond the arc. He carried that over into the preseason, connecting on 46.2 percent from distance. Maurice Harkless showed flashes of brilliance last season, and he averaged 10.8 points on 48.4 percent shooting in the preseason as well.

Indiana is a quality team that I rode quite a bit in the playoffs last year. While I have a ton of respect for the Pacers with what they did last season, they have created the kind of expectations for themselves that will make them good fade material in the early going. Plus, Danny Granger has suffered another setback with a calf injury and will miss the first three weeks of the season. Depth was a huge issue for the Pacers last season, and without him, the bench takes a big hit.

The road team has won three of the past four meetings in this series, so home-court advantage isn't a big factor when these teams get together. The price is right to pull the trigger on Orlando in the opener. Take the Magic Tuesday.

25* NBA Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Spurs/Heat UNDER 189.5

I have correctly picked the winning side in each of the first six games in this series. However, I believe the oddamakers have set a very solid spread for Game 7. But they have certainly missed their mark on the total, which is where all the value lies in this huge contest.

By now, San Antonio and Miami know exactly what one another is going to do. That makes points very hard to come by as it's now down to which team wants it more. Game 6 would have gone UNDER the total if not for overtime, and I look for Game 7 to be even lower scoring tonight.

Both teams come in extremely tired after using up a ton of energy in that incredible Game 6. Neither team is going to have the energy to get out and fast break with any kind of consistency. That's why I expect this to be a slow-it-down, grind-it-out Game 7. Also, the pressure of a Game 7 will make it more difficult for shooters to knock down shots.

The play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - as a # 1 seed in the playoffs, in the finals.

The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Spurs last 22 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Miami's last 5 home games. The UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings between these teams in Miami. Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Thursday.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio +7

I have been using the zig zag theory to perfection since taking San Antonio +5.5 in Game 1. I have gone 5-0 in the NBA Finals by selecting Miami in Game 2, San Antonio in Game 3, the Heat in Game 4, and the Spurs in Game 5.

However, I feel like it's time to buck this trend. That's because I believe that the oddsmakers have finally over-adjusted for it, installing Miami as a series-high 7-point favorite for Game 6. The value is with the Spurs in this one folks.

San Antonio knows that its best chance to win this series is in Game 6, because history is not on its side if this series goes to a Game 7. Greg Popovich will have his team focused and ready to go win this series in Game 6.

It's clear that Manu Ginobli still has something left in the tank. He, along with Danny Green, were the keys to San Antonio's Game 5 victory. I look for the Spurs to continue to share the ball and find the open man, while Manu is every bit as aggressive as he was in Game 6, which certainly helps this team.

Only three teams in NBA Finals history have rallied from a 3-2 deficit to win the final two home games, and thus the series. Tony Parker got overlooked in Game 5 as he scored a game-high 26 points, showing that his hamstring is a non-issue. Tim Duncan did what he does, scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds.

San Antonio is 14-3 ATS after a game where it made 55% of its shots or better this season. Miami is 1-10 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season, including 0-7 ATS ATS in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games this season. Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Tuesday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio +1.5

Just as Game 4 was a must-win for Miami, Game 5 has become a must-win for San Antonio. The Spurs know they cannot afford to be down 3-2 with the final two games being played in Miami. I look for them to respond in a big way at home in Game 5.

The media has made a big deal about Tony Parker's hamstring, and Manu Ginobli's poor play to this point. I look for both guys to respond in a big way, and for the team to rally around them like they have all season. That talk in the media has also shifted Miami to a 1.5-point favorite as the public has flocked to the Heat.

I'll go the other way and back the Spurs, who have been nothing short of dominant at home all season. They are 42-8 at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.0 points/game. Whatever they have to give, they will be putting on the floor in this one.

Miami has been absolutely terrible after a win in these playoffs. It is now 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. win, 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS win, and 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. San Antonio is also 7-0 ATS off a home loss this season, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points/game in this spot. These seven trends combine for a perfect 36-0 system backing San Antonio. Bet the Spurs in Game 5 Sunday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +1.5

This is essentially a must-win situation for the Miami Heat. They realize they cannot afford to go down 3-1 if they want to win this series, so I look for them to give everything they have to get a victory in Game 4.

The Heat have been at their best when coming off a loss and needing a bounce-back win. In fact, you have to go all the way back to January 8th and 10th against Indian and Portland to find the last time that Miami has lost back-to-back games.

San Antonio simply caught fire in the second half and shot lights out in Game 3. In fact, the Spurs set an NBA Finals records with 16 made 3-pointers over their 32 attempts for a 50% clip. They aren't going to even come close to shooting that well again from distance.

Miami is 14-3 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more since 1996. The Heat are 15-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Miami is a perfect 11-0 SU in its last 11 games following a loss dating back to January 10th. Now that's resiliency folks. This team can turn is on when it needs to. Bet the Heat in Game 4 Thursday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 3 No-Brainer on San Antonio -2

I have gone 2-0 in the Finals with the Spurs +5.5 in Game 1 and the Heat -5.5 in Game 2. As expected, the Heat bounced back in basically a must-win situation in Game 2 with a blowout victory as they simply wanted it more.

Now, returning home for Game 3, I look for the Spurs to make the proper adjustments and to continue their dominance in San Antonio. The Spurs are a ridiculous 41-7 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.1 points/game.

It has been a rollercoaster ride for the Heat against the spread dating back to the Eastern Conference Finals. Every time they get a big win, they seem to come back with a poor effort their next game. After a loss, they tend to bounce back with a great effort.

In fact, Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system in support of San Antonio heading into Game 3.

I believe that Game 3 is where all that rest the Spurs received after sweeping the Grizzlies will pay off. Conversely, I feel that the grueling 7-game series the Heat faced against the Pacers will come into play. San Antonio will be the fresher team, and that will show in the 3rd and 4th quarters as it pulls away for a Game 3 victory. Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat -5.5

The Miami Heat in Game 2 represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NBA Finals. Knowing that they cannot afford to go down 0-2 with the next three games being played in San Antonio, the Heat will respond with a blowout victory in Game 2 tonight.

Miami simply responds following a loss better than any other team in the league. In fact, you have to go all the way back to January 8th and January 10th to find the last time that the Heat lost back-to-back games this season.

I look for the Spurs to relax a little knowing that they have three home games coming up following this Game 2 showdown. They won't be able to match the intensity of Lebron James and company in this one.

The Heat are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 2 days rest. The Heat are 14-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Bet the Heat in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

The most likely game for a road team to steal in the playoffs is Game 1 of a series before adjustments are made. While I believe the Spurs will win Game 1 tonight, I'm going to take the points for some insurance.

San Antonio matches up with the Miami Heat as well as anyone in the league. Greg Popovich is a tremendous head coach, and he'll be sure to double and triple team Lebron James at times to not let him beat them. Miami will have to hit jump shots in Game 1 if it wants any chance to win tonight.

After sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs come into this game well-rested and prepared to face Miami. Meanwhile, the Heat just got done with a grueling 7-game series with the Pacers.

San Antonio is 8-0 ATS in road games versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Spurs are 9-0 ATS after 2 consecutive division games over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing San Antonio. Bet the Spurs Thursday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 7 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers have been an extremely resilient team. They came together with a 91-77 victory in Game 6 in the face of elimination. While the Pacers are a team coming together heading into Game 7, the Heat seem to be falling apart at the seams.

Dwyane Wade wants a bigger role. Chris Bosh wants a bigger role. This has led to some turmoil within their locker room, and I simply like the mindset of the Pacers better heading into this Game 7. Miami has all of the pressure on its shoulders considering it is the favorite to win the title.

Indiana comes in as the underdog with almost no pressure on its shoulders. David West had a 103-degree temperature in Game 6, but he played through it and scored 11 points while grabbing 14 very important rebounds. The team rallied around him, and once again this moment has brought them closer together.

"We've got to do a good job of making sure me and Chris have our opportunities to succeed throughout the game," Wade said. Wade has scored a total of 20 points the past two games. He was 3 of 11 for 10 points in Game 6.

Bosh averaged 16.3 points on 11 shots in the series' first three games. In the three games since, he's averaging just 6.3 points on seven shots a game. Bosh was 1-of-8 shooting for just five points in Saturday's loss.

"We've got guys individually who want to play better," Wade said. "But we've got to try to help each other out in this locker room and not leave it up to the individual to self-will it."

"I mean, we can state the obvious; they're both struggling," Lebron James said of Wade and Bosh. "When you're struggling, the best thing to get is a layup or a dunk. [Wade] missed a couple of them ... Chris is struggling with his shot and him hurting his ankle didn't help."

Indiana is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) off a home win by 10 points or more this season. Miami is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games after playing a road game this season. The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bet the Pacers in Game 7 Monday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 6 No-Brainer on Indiana +3

The Indiana Pacers are not about to give in and let Miami take this series in six games. I look for the Pacers to send this series to Game 7 with a victory tonight to continue their home dominance.

Indiana is 37-12 at home this season. It is winning by 7.9 points/game at home this season. The Pacers have only lost one game at home in the playoffs, going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS this postseason. They simply play with a lot of confidence at home.

The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. These two trends show how each team has responded recently following a win/loss. Indiana responds in Game 6 tonight. Bet the Pacers Saturday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami -7.5

The Miami Heat get the nod Thursday in Game 5. I look for a similar dominant performance to their Game 3 effort when they won at Indiana 114-96 after losing Game 2 at home. They'll bounce back in similar fashion following a Game 4 loss tonight.

Miami is a ridiculous 42-6 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game. Indiana is just 22-26 on the road this season, and it will not be able to match the intensity of the Heat playing behind their home fans tonight.

The Heat are 12-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. It is bouncing back to win by 12.4 points/game in this spot. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games following a S.U. loss dating back to the regular season. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Thursday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +3

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NBA playoffs in Game 4 tonight. They should not be an underdog at home, and I fully expect them to beat the Miami Heat outright to even this series.

Indiana clearly relaxed a little after taking Game 2 from Miami and earning home-court advantage. Meanwhile, Miami came out in Game 3 wanted to get back its home court. I look for these teams to reverse roles mentally tonight, with the Pacers fighting to get to 2-2, while the Heat realizing that they can lose Game 4 and still have home-court advantage the rest of the way.

The Pacers have been one of the best home teams in the league this season. They are 36-12 at home this year, including 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the playoffs. Their Game 3 loss to the Heat was their first home setback of the postseason.

Indiana is 24-13 ATS following a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. The Pacers are 13-4 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season. Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 4 No-Brainer on Memphis -3

The Memphis Grizzlies have absolutely no quit in them. This team is not going to give in even though they are down 3-0. Memphis still believes it has a chance to come back and win this series against the odds. It starts with a home victory in Game 4 tonight.

Before their home loss to the Spurs in Game 3, the Grizzlies were undefeated at home in the playoffs. Their fans will come out and support them like they have all season. Memphis is now 37-10 at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 53-20 (72.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).

Memphis is 21-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are a perfect 7-0 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. They are bouncing back to win by 9.4 points/game in this spot. Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +110

The Indiana Pacers are going to pull off the upset in this series. I'm going to continue to back them in Game 3 tonight as they take a 2-1 series lead on the Miami Heat.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

Indiana is 36-11 SU & 28-19 ATS at home this season. The Pacers have not lost in the playoffs at home, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in six playoff games. I'll gladly put my hard-earned money on the Pacers as an underdog at home tonight in Game 3.

The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Finals games. Indiana is 20-11 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season. Bet the Pacers on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 3 No-Brainer on Memphis -5

This is a must-win game for the Memphis Grizzlies. After falling short in overtime in Game 2, the Grizzlies find themselves down 2-0. I look for them to play with a sense of urgency, while the Spurs take their foot off of the gas just enough tonight to allow Memphis to win and cover.

Memphis has been one of the best home teams in the league all season. It has gone 37-9 SU & 28-16 ATS at home this year. In fact, the Grizzlies have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs at home, beating the Clippers by 12, 21 and 10 points, and topping the Thunder by 6 points twice.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meeting as well. The home team has won seven straight meetings between Memphis and San Antonio. Tony Parker continues to be bothered by an injured calf, while Memphis is 100% healthy coming into this one.

The Grizzlies are 21-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Memphis is 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Bet Memphis in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7

The Indiana Pacers fought hard in Game 1 as they were covering the +8 number for all 53 minutes of that contest. They fell just short, losing on a last-second layup in overtime. This has been a resilient team all year, and I look for them to bounce back in Game 2.

I have no doubt the Pacers are capable of winning this game outright, I'm just taking the points for some insurance. As I stated with my play on Indiana in Game 1, this is simply a tough match-up for the Heat, and a great one for the Pacers.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

Indiana realizes it cannot afford to fall down 2-0 if it wants to win this series. That's why I look for it to lay everything on the line in Game 2, which will be enough to cover this lofty spread. According to some comments after the game, it's clear that the Pacers are more inspired by how close they came to winning in Game 1, rather than disappointed. So, I love the mindset of this team coming in.

Indiana is 47-22 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls since 1996. The Pacers are 23-13 ATS following a loss this season, and 18-7 ATS after a road loss. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The underdog is 29-14-1 ATS in the last 44 meetings. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Friday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +8

I've believed that Indiana has been the most underrated team in the entire 2013 playoffs. Once again, the Pacers are undervalued in Game 1 of this series with the Miami Heat as a massive 8-point road underdog.

Miami could not have had an easier path to the Eastern Conference Finals. It got to face the only team in the playoffs with a losing record in Milwaukee, and it also played a depleted Chicago Bulls team that just simply did not have the talent to be competitive.

I believe that easy path is going to work against the Heat as they won't be ready for the fight they are going to get from Indiana in Game 1. They have basically just had to go through the motions to this point to win games, but that won't be the case against the Pacers.

Plus, Miami is going to be rusty coming into this one. The Heat have not played since beating Chicago 94-91 on May 15th. It had a big layoff after sweeping the Bucks on April 28th, and didn't get to start the Chicago series until May 6th. It would come out rusty and lose to the Bulls 86-93 at home in Game 1.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

The Pacers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Indiana is 39-18 ATS after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent since 1996. The Pacers are 46-26 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls since 1996. Bet Indiana Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5

Almost everything that could go right for San Antonio in Game 1 of this series did. The Spurs shot 52.6% from the field, including 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range.

I look for Memphis to make the proper adjustments, which will certainly help cool off the Spurs as they clearly won't shoot nearly that well again. This has been a resilient Grizzlies' team all year, and I fully expect them to give San Antonio all it can handle in Game 2.

Memphis is still a blistering 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. San Antonio should not be a bigger favorite than it was in Game 1, which is another reason why I believe there is a lot of value in backing the Grizzlies here in Game 2. The public is overreacting from the Spurs' blowout win in Game 1.

The Grizzlies are 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Lionel Hollins is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more as the coach of Memphis. Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 1 No-Brainer on Memphis +4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This has been the most underrated team in the league all season, and it's still the case in the playoffs.

I would normally have a longer analysis than this, but there's just no need to beat around the bush. Memphis is going to win this Game 1 outright, but I'm just taking the points for some insurance. Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* Knicks/Pacers Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -5

The Indiana Pacers will close out the New York Knicks in Game 6 in blowout fashion. Indiana hasn't lost at home the entire playoffs, and it's not about to start losing today.

This has been one of the best home teams all season, especially in the playoffs. The Pacers are 35-11 SU & 27-19 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game.

New York is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Bet the Pacers Saturday.

20* Pacers/Knicks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana +5

I look for the Indiana Pacers to take a page out of the Memphis and Miami's books tonight and close this series out in Game 5. That's especially the case with Miami on deck as they want to be as rested as possible going into that series.

New York had its chance to get back in this series in Game 4, but fell flat on its faces with yet another double-digit road loss to the Pacers. The Knicks feel like they're already beaten, and I hardly expect them to show up tonight as a result.

This play falls into a system that is 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (NEW YORK) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.

New York is 0-7 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season. It is losing in this spot 95.3 to 106.3, or by an average of 11.0 points/game. Bet the Pacers Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +14.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing their best value of the entire playoffs tonight as a massive 14.5-point underdog to the Miami Heat in Game 5. They have already been counted out in this series, and this is when they are at their best.

Chicago was up 3-1 on the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, and they would lose the next two games, setting up a Game 7. Almost everyone gave them no chance after blowing that 3-1 lead, but I took them on the money line in Game 7, and they won outright to advance to face Miami.

The Bulls simply will not quit. They take after head coach Tom Thibodeau, who refuses to let his team believe that they are down and out. I look for Chicago to take this game right down to the wire with a chance to win in the 4th quarter.

Thibodeau is 10-1 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of Chicago. His teams are bouncing back to win 92.4 to 85.5, or by an average of 6.9 points/game in this spot.

Miami is 0-7 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive road wins this season. The Heat are 0-9 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Chicago. Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on New York +5.5

This is essentially a must-win situation for the New York Knicks as they cannot afford to fall behind 3-1 in this series against the Indiana Pacers. I look for them to respond well and to win Game 4 to nod this series at 2-2, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

After getting upset in Game 1, the Knicks responded very well in Game 2 with a blowout 105-79 victory. This team has proven that it has some resiliency, and I look for that to show tonight on the road in Game 4.

New York is 48-28 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. New York is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Pacers are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 184.5

As a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another, and the tougher it is to score points as a result. That was evident in Game 3 of this series as Memphis beat Oklahoma City 87-81 for 168 combined points.

I fully expect this pivotal Game 4 to be similarly low-scoring to Game 3. Memphis controls the tempo playing at home, and it wants to grind it out in the half court. Oklahoma City is unable to run due to Russell Westbrook being out for the season.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 21-6-2 in Thunder last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 12-4 in Grizzlies last 16 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Spurs/Warriors ABC Sunday No-Brainer on OVER 198

There is a ton of value on the OVER in Game 4 between the San Antonio and Golden State. The oddsmakers have set this number lower than any of the first three games.

The books set the total in the first three games at 203, 204.5 and 201.5. I'll gladly take advantage of this value in Game 4, and you should too. Golden State has been at its best when going small ball, and after losing Game 3, I look for the Warriors to go small ball again.

The Spurs are 22-11 to the OVER in road games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. They are combining with their opponents to average 203.3 points/game in this situation. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Knicks/Pacers ABC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -4

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 after getting blown out in Game 2. They stole Game 1, and then proceeded to not show up in Game 2 because they were simply satisfied with taking home-court advantage from the Knicks.

That blowout in Game 2 will get their attention, and Indiana will be refocused and playing with a chip on its shoulder Saturday. The Pacers are one of the best home teams in the league this season, going 33-11 while outscoring opponents by 8.5 points/game. Indiana won its first three home playoff games over the Atlanta Hawks by 17, 15 and 13 points.

New York is expected to get Amare Stoudemire back in the line-up in this one, and he's likely to play 10-15 minutes. Stoudemire has been a huge plague on this team since Carmelo Anthony joined, and the Knicks for whatever reason struggle with him on the floor.

This play falls into a system that is 70-36 (66%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game).

Mike Woodson is 4-15 ATS in road games in all playoff games in all games he has coached since 1996. Frank Vogel is 34-20 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Indiana. The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings with Indiana's Game 1 win in New York being the only exception. Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 188

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder. The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another, and the harder it is to score points.

Memphis and Oklahoma City combined for 184 points in Game 1 and 192 points in Game 2 for an average of 188 combined points. Given my theory, I believe there is a ton of value in the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

Neither team really can run, which is a huge edge towards the UNDER. Oklahoma City is playing at a much slower pace without Russell Westbrook, while Memphis is a half-court team at nature, and it will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

I look for a similar final score to the Memphis/LAC match-up in Game 3 of Round 1. The Grizzlies won that game 94-82 for 176 combined points. Memphis is scoring 94.1 points/game and allowing 87.2 points/game at home this season for a combined average of 181.3 points/game.

This play falls into a system that is 51-26 (66.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a playoff series which is tied, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.

Oklahoma City is 12-4 to the UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Thunder are 17-3 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive home games this season. Memphis is 11-1 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +2.5

The San Antonio Spurs should not be an underdog to the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 Friday. After losing Game 2, I look for the Spurs to come out with a sense of urgency to try and regain home-court advantage with a Game 3 victory.

San Antonio has been one of the best road teams in the league all season at 25-18. The Spurs are 51-14 SU in their last 65 meetings with the Warriors, including 21-11 in their last 32 visits to Golden State.

This play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

San Antonio is a deadly 11-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. It has come back to win in this spot 107.8 to 95.8, or by an average of 12.0 points/game. Bet the Spurs Friday.

25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Spurs UNDER 205

I'm siding with the UNDER in this Game 2 between the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors as my best total for the entire second round of the playoffs. I successfully cashed in the OVER in Game 1, but I'm going in the other way in Game 2.

After a high-scoring, 129-127 double-overtime victory in Game 1, the books have been forced to set this number higher than it should be. The total was set at 201 for Game 1, and now it's been jacked all the way up to 205, providing us with excellent line value on the UNDER.

Golden State shot lights out in Game 1 at 51.0% behind Stephon Curry's amazing shooting display. He put in 44 points, and there's no way the Warriors light it up again like they did in Game 1 as San Antonio makes the proper adjustments.

Both teams were simply gassed after playing a double-overtime game. I believe that will carry over into this Game 2 as nearly really looks to run the floor like they normally would. I look for this to be a half-court game, and for the shooting to be off due to the tired legs.

This play falls into a system that is 43-12 (78.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

San Antonio is 8-1 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 110 points or more this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 186.5

This Memphis vs. Oklahoma City series has defensive battle written all over it. With no Russell Westbrook, the Thunder are virtually forced to play a half-court game, which is exactly what Memphis likes.

These teams combined for 184 points in Game 1 with a 93-91 Oklahoma City victory. Memphis shot 42.7% while the Thunder were held to 41.2% shooting. I look for an even lower-scoring game in Game 2 tonight.

The UNDER is 20-6 in Grizzlies last 26 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. The UNDER is 36-17 in Grizzlies last 53 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Thunder last 12 vs. NBA Southwest foes. The UNDER is 20-5-2 in Thunder last 27 games overall. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Thunder last 17 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.