15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Ohio State -24.5

I like the spot for the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight.  They suffered their first loss of the season on the road at Texas A&M last time out, and they'll come back highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.

The Buckeyes have played a tough schedule as they also beat Texas in their opener 80-72 as 2-point dogs on a neutral in Vegas.  They followed it up with a 81-47 blasting of Youngstown State as 19-point favorites in their lone home game this season.  That 34-point win looks really good when you consider Youngstown State beat Chicago State by 20 and took Syracuse to double-OT in its other two games.

Evansville is rebuilding with just one starter back from last year, and the results have been ugly for the Purple Aces this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-3 ATS losing by 17 at North Texas as 13.5-point dogs, by 17 at Middle Tennessee as 11-point dogs and by 11 at home to Radford as 4-point favorites.  Radford lost by 40 at Pittsburgh.

This will be Evansville's toughest test of the season against a motivated Buckeyes team coming off a loss.  I don't expect it to go well for the Purple Aces tonight.  Bet Ohio State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on SIU-Edwardsville +4

SIU-Edwardsville is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Cougars are 4-2 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with both losses coming on the road to Indiana and Illinois, who are two of the best teams in the country.  They even covered in a 19-point loss at Indiana as 27.5-point dogs.

The Cougars have handled everyone else winning 95-42 over FCS Westminister, 77-72 as 6-point dogs at Indiana State, 79-60 as 2.5-point dogs at Western Michigan and 76-58 as 5.5-point favorites over Canisius on a neutral.  Those are some very impressive results.

Green Bay is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Doug Gottlieb, the former commentator who I never thought would be a head coach.  It hasn't gone well for Gottlieb and the Phoenix in the early going.

The Phoenix are 1-3 SU this season and while two losses came on the road to Providence by 14 and to Oklahoma State by 13, those aren't two of the better power conference teams.  They also lost by 14 at home to St. Thomas, which looks really bad when you consider St. Thomas lost by 9 to Oklahoma State and by 15 at Arizona State.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet SIU-Edwardsville Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rockets/Bucks OVER 224

Both the Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks rank in the top half of the league in pace.  The Rockets are playing noticeably faster recently and it's paying off as they went for 143 points with the Bulls last night and 125 with the Clippers the game before.

But a big reason I'm on this OVER is because the Bucks get Damian Lillard back from injury tonight, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy as well.  The Bucks are much more of an OVER team when these two are healthy because they are one of the toughest duos to stop in the NBA.

The Bucks and Rockets have combined for at least 228 points in eight of their last 10 meetings, making for an 8-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 224-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pistons OVER 233.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They ranks 1st in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  The Bulls and their opponents have combined for at least 232 points in six consecutive games, including 238 or more five times.

The Detroit Pistons just scored 124 points against the Wizards last night after calling off the dogs in the 4th quarter in a blowout.  The Bulls just allowed 143 points to the Rockets last night in a blowout.  So while both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, both should still be pretty fresh considering no starter for either team played more than 30 minutes.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Cal/USC BTN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 152.5

California is playing fast ranking 52nd in adjusted tempo this season.  They combined with Bakersfield for 159 points, Cal Poly for 164 points and Vanderbilt for 154 points.  This total of 152.5 is pretty low for a game involving Cal right now.

That's especially the case when you consider USC head coach Eric Musselmen has the Trojans playing fast as well.  They rank 82nd in adjusted tempo and are coming off a 98-95 thriller with UT-Arlington for 193 combined points in regulation.

The last three meetings between Cal and USC have seen 157, 156 and 160 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They get a chance at quick revenge after losing 124-122 as 8.5-point road dogs to the Knicks on Friday.  Now they come back as 9.5-point dogs in the rematch, and this number should have been adjusted down instead of up for the spot.

The Nets have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA this season going 10-3 ATS in their 13 games.  They have been competitive in almost all their losses, and asking the Knicks to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

The Knicks lack depth this season as they have been without Achiuwa and Robinson all season.  Towns and McBride are both questionable.  I like the Nets even if both guys go, and this line will crash if Towns doesn't play.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Blazers OVER 231.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-2 OVER in their 13 games this season with 232 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games.  That makes for a 12-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 231.5-point total.

What makes the Hawks are dead nuts OVER team is ranking 3rd in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  They play fast and they play no defense.  They are getting healthier and showing they have a deep team scoring 117 or more points in four of their last five games.

The Blazers also like to play faster this season ranking 9th in pace and 20th in defensive rating.  They are coming off a low-scoring game against the Timberwolves which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  It was the 2nd meeting in 2 days with the Timberwolves, who they combined for 230 points with the night before.  Minnesota shot 7-of-39 (18%) from 3-point range which is why it was so low-scoring.

Both teams are fresh and ready to run.  The Blazers have had the last three days off, while the Hawks will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy with the exception of JA Morant, but they have proven they can play without him.  The Grizzlies went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS before showing they could play with two of the best teams in the West in the Lakers and Warriors on the road.

I was almost more impressed that they only lost by 5 to the Lakers as 7.5-point road dogs and by 5 to the Warriors as 7-point road dogs without Morant than I was with their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS run before that.  Now they are highly motivated for a win coming back home, and they are rested playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.

The Grizzlies have absolutely dominated in their last three home games, beating the Wizards by 24 as 7.5-point favorites, the Lakers by 17 as 4-point favorties and the Bucks by 23 as 6.5-point underdogs.  I look for them to crush the short-handed Denver Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets will be without both Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon tonight, and they have no shot of winning this game without these two.  We saw their first game without Jokic they lost 101-94 at New Orleans as 2-point favorites.  And that's a Pelicans team that is missing more key players to injury than any team in the NBA right now.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +11

The Sacramento Kings are in one of the worst spots I've seen this season, and given the spot, they should not be double-digit favorites over the Utah Jazz tonight.  This line is way off in my opinion.

Sacramento is coming off a 130-126 (OT) loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last night.  De'Aaron Fox played 44 minutes and scored 60 points and it still wasn't enough.  Keegan Murray played 45, Trey Lyles 41 and Sabonis 39 minutes.

These guys had to play such big minutes because the Kings are without DeMar DeRozan and arguably the league's best 6th man in Malik Monk right now.  That's going to make this back-to-back spot even more difficult on the Kings considering they are so short-handed right now.

Not only is it the 2nd of a back-to-back off an OT game, but the Kings will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days and their 10th game in 16 days.  Mercy.  The Jazz are 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last three games and playing much better since getting healthy. 

They upset the Mavs as 8-point home dogs, the Spurs as 6.5-point road dogs and the Bulls as 7.5-point road dogs.  They also only lost to the Suns by 8 at home during this stretch.  Utah will be playing just its 3rd game in 7 days and is the much fresher team to say the least.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on UC-Irvine -16

UC-Irvine is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters went 24-10 (17-3 Big West) last season and return four starters from that team that all averaged at least 9.0 points per game.

The Anteaters are 3-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in lined games this season absolutely crushing the two spreads.  They beat Chapman 82-52 in their opener, then followed it up with a 66-51 win at Loyola-Marymount as 1.5-point favorites and a 80-60 win at Northern Iowa as 3.5-point dogs, covering the spread by a combined 37 points in those two games.

Now the Anteaters take a big step down in class here against a rebuilding Pepperdine team.  The Waves went 13-20 last season and now have a first-year head coach in Ed Schilling.  They lose all five starters from last season including three elite scorers in Ajayi (17.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG), Mallette (15.8 PPG) and Porter (16.2 PPG.  Schilling must replace 11 players who accounted for 2,294 of the 2,403 points Pepperdine scores last year.

After a 77-64 win over Western Illinois, the Waves got blasted 94-76 as 8.5-point dogs at UC-San Diego.  That is another team from the Big West, but UC-San Diego isn't on UC-Irvine's level.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves ML -120

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be highly motivated for a victory coming coming off three consecutive SU losses.  They are fully healthy tonight, and I expect them to respond in a big way with a road win at Sacramento.

The Kings just lost DeMar DeRozan (22.9 PPG) to injury with a back injury in their last game and he is doubtful tonight.  They are also without arguably the best 6th man in the entire NBA in Malik Monk (12.6 PPG).  I don't give them much of a chance of being competitive tonight without these two.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is actually 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Minnesota has won outright in four straight trips to Sacramento, including a 117-115 win on October 24th earlier this season.  DeRozan had 26 points and Monk 17 in that game.  That's a lot of production they will be missing.  Bet the Timberwolves on the Money Line Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Atlanta Hawks have no business being 9.5-point favorites against anyone.  They are 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS this season with two of those losses coming to tonight's opponent in the Washington Wizards.  They lost 121-119 as 7.5-point home favorites to the Wizards on October 30th and 133-120 as 5.5-point road favorites to the Wizards on October 30th.

No question the Hawks will be out for revenge, but asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Wizards just got one of their best players in Kyle Kuzma back from injury and have been more competitive with him in the lineup.  Kuzma had 25 points in that first meeting with the Hawks and didn't play in the 2nd, but the Wizards had seven different players score in double figures to make up for it.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* Lakers/Spurs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +3.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have huge home/road splits this season.  They are 6-0 SU at home but just 1-4 SU on the road with their lone win coming by 6 at hapless Toronto.  They lost by 4 at Phoenix, by 24 at Cleveland, by 12 at Detroit and by 17 at Memphis.

The Spurs also have big home/road splits this season.  The Spurs are 5-2 SU at home but just 1-4 SU on the road.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five home games with their lone loss coming by a single point.  They won by 9 over Washington, by 20 over Sacramento, by 13 over Portland and by 10 over Minnesota.

The Spurs are 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Lakers.  They have the answer for Anthony Davis that most teams don't in Wembenyama, who went for 50 points last game.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +11

The Chicago Bulls are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS since getting their best player in Zach LaVine back from injury.  They are now as healthy as any team in the NBA and it's starting to show.

The Bulls upset the Hawks 125-113 as 2.5-point road dogs and upset the Knicks 124-123 as 8.5-point road dogs.  Their lone loss came 119-113 as 8-point home dogs to Cleveland, and now they get a shot at quick revenge on the Cavaliers but are catching 11 points in the rematch.  This number is too high.

Cleveland is 13-0 SU this season, and with that perfect record comes expectations from the oddsmakers and the betting public that are tough to live up to.  We've seen that play out as the Cavaliers are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall escaping with close wins over the Nets by 5, the Bulls by 6 and the 76ers by 8.  If they win tonight, it won't be by more than 11 points.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Penn State -7

Penn State will be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They went 16-17 (9-11 Big Ten) in Mike Rhoades' first season on the job last season.  Rhoades brings back three starters from that team and added help on the wing and up front.

The Nittany Lions are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season beating Binghamton 108-66 as 20.5-point favorites, UMBC 103-54 as 22.5-point favorites and St. Francis PA 92-62 as 31.5-point favorites.  Returning starters Hicks (14.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG), Baldwin (12.7 PPG, 6.0 APG) and Kern (7.3 PPG) have made a big impact.  Returning role players Dunn (12.7 PPG) and Johnson (11.3 PPG) have stepped up their games.  And NIU transfer Niederhauser (15.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has been the most impressive of the bunch.

Virginia Tech is in rough shape in Mike Young's 6th season on the job.  The Hokies lost all five starters from last year and return only four scholarship players.  Virginia Tech is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS and has been far less impressive than Penn State.  They won 83-60 over Delaware State as 18-point favorites, won 93-74 over USC Upstate as 24-point favorites and won 58-52 over Winthrop as 9-point favorites.

I'll gladly side with this veteran Nittany Lions team that has dominated the competition with three wins by 30 points or more over this inexperienced Hokies team whose three wins have all come by 23 points or fewer.  Bet Penn State Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Miami Heat +5

The Miami Heat are undervalued right now because they are without Jimmy Butler.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA and they can afford to be without him, especially with one of the best head coaches in the league in Eric Spoelstra guiding them.

Miami will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four of its last five games.  But three of those losses came by 1, 2 and 3 points so it's not like they haven't been competitive without Butler.  Getting 5 points with the Heat tonight is too much.

That's especially the case when you could argue the Pacers are dealing with more injuries than the Heat right now.  Indiana is without key scorers Nembhard and Nesmith, and they are lacking depth down low without both Wiseman and Jackson.

Miami has lost just once in its last nine meetings with Indiana by more than 3 points.  That makes for an 8-1 system backing the Heat pertaining to this 5-point spread.  Bet the Heat Friday.

20* Mavs/Jazz NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 231.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when fully healthy with Markkanen, Sexton, Collins, George and Clarkson on the floor at the same time.  They are a very good offensive team with these guys healthy, and they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The Jazz rank 7th in pace and 27th in defensive rating this season.  They are going to be without C Walker Kessler, who is actually one of their better defenders.  They will have to go more small ball with Collins playing the center position, making them even more of an OVER team tonight.

The Mavericks are playing faster this season ranking 12th in pace.  They added more shooting with Klay Thompson, but he isn't the defender he once was.  And defense has been optional for them of late going OVER the total in their last two games losing 120-117 at Golden State for 237 combined points and falling 122-120 at Denver for 242 combined points.

The Jazz are coming off 232 combined points with the Suns last time out at home and that's a Suns team that was missing Kevin Durant.  This total of 231.5 has been set too low given the current state of these two teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Blazers UNDER 221

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Not only will this be the 3rd meeting between the Blazers and Timberwolves already this season, but it will be the 2nd meeting in 2 days after these two just played last night.

Portland upset Minnesota 122-108 last night thanks to some lights out shooting that is not repeatable.  The Blazers shot 51% as a team including 18-of-32 (56%) from 3-point range.  Minnesota shot 51% as a team as well.  They also combined for 39-of-43 (90.1%) from the FT line.   Let's just say those shooting numbers are unlikely to happen again.

That game was played at a very slow pace as these are two of the slower teams in the NBA.  Now Portland lost starting PG Anfernee Simons to injury last night, and they are going to have to rely even more on defense without him moving forward.  This is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA without Simons.  Be the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +10

I'm not sure what world the San Antonio Spurs should be favored by double-digits against any team in the NBA, but it certainly isn't this one.  The Spurs are still one of the worst teams in the NBA, and I'll gladly fade them here laying double-digits to the Washington Wizards.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Wizards, who are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule of Miami, Golden State, Memphis, Orlando and Houston.  They finally get to take a big step down in class tonight against the Spurs.

The Wizards just got Kyle Kuzma back from injury in their last game at Houston and he came through with 18 points in a 15-point loss.  Having Kuzma and Jordan Poole healthy and on the court at the same time moving forward will make the Wizards much more competitive.  This game will go down to the wire tonight.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Chicago Bulls got their best player in Zach LaVine back from injury two games ago and have played two of their best games of the season since.  They upset Atlanta 125-113 as 2.5-point road underdogs and nearly handed the Cavaliers their first loss of the season, falling 119-113 as 8-point home dogs.

The Bulls had yesterday off and have a big rest advantage over the Knicks as a result.  The Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Philadelphia last night.  All five starters played at least 35 minutes for the Knicks last night, and they have one of the worst benches in the NBA so their starters are forced to play big minutes again this season.  They should not be favored by 8.5 points tonight given the tough rest spot.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the New Orleans Pelicans.  They are without three starters in Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum and Zion Williamson.  They are also without three key contributors off the bench in Jordan Hawkins, Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado.

It's no wonder the Pelicans are just 1-8 SU in their last nine games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.  Six of the eight losses came by 15 points or more, so we aren't asking much of the Thunder to cover this 14.5-point spread tonight.  The Pelicans even had some of these players healthy during this stretch, but now they have hit rock bottom in the injury department.

The Thunder did lose Chet Holmgren, but they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA and will be just fine without him in the short-term.  The Thunder are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Pelicans.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

The Brooklyn Nets are 9-2 ATS this season and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They just lost 108-104 (OT) at Boston as 13.5-point underdogs on November 8th less than a week ago.  Now they are out for revenge here catching 8.5 points in the rematch.

The spot really favors the Nets not only because of the revenge factor, but also because of their rest advantage.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days.

Meanwhile, the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 117-116 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks last night.  Tatum played 37 minutes, White 38 and Brown 36 last night.  Both Tatum and Brown were banged up recently and missed time, and I wouldn't be surprised if one or both sit tonight.

Either way, I think the Nets have what it takes to stay within the number against the Celtics for the 2nd time in 6 days.  Boston is grossly overvalued after winning the title last year.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on St. John's -24

In Rick Pitino I trust.  He led the St. John's Red Storm to a 20-13 season in his first year on the job last season and they were snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  So they have been motivated all offseason, and reinforcements are on the way.

One of the biggest pulls of the portal was bringing Kadary Richmond in from rival Seton Hall.  Utah transfer Deivon Smith (5 triple-doubles last year) and five-star freshman Simeon Wilcher will join Richmond in the backcourt.

RJ Luis (10.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) is the leading returning scorer and will lead them in the frontcourt.  North Texas transfer Aaron Scott is a great two-way player.  They have great size with 7-1 USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu along with freshmen Khaman Maker (7-1) and Ruben Prey (6-10).

St. John's blasted Fordham 92-60 as 19.5-point favorites in their opener, covering the spread by 12.5 points.  They showed off their depth with nine players scoring at least 5 points.  That's a Fordham team that went on to upset Seton Hall 57-56 as 10.5-point dogs, so that result looks even better now.

The Red Storm actually trailed Quinnipiac 39-35 at halftime last game.  They got a ripping from Pitino at halftime and responded outscoring Quinnipiac 61-34 after intermission, actually covering the 20-point spread to boot in a 96-73 victory.  That comeback effort shows what the Red Storm are capable of when locked in.

I expect the Red Storm to be locked in from the jump tonight against Wagner, which lost 75-52 as 17-point dogs at Rutgers in their opener.  That's a Rutgers team that struggled to put away St. Peter's 75-65 in their next game as 16.5-point favorites, so that result looks even worse now.  Wagner lost three starters who all averaged double-digits scoring last year.  Bet St. John's Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Jazz OVER 225

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  They are fully healthy right now so they are a much better offensive team when that's the case.

The Suns won't mind keeping up with the Jazz in a shootout tonight.  The Suns have gone with more pace and more 3-pointers this season under first-year head coach Mike Budenholzer.

The Suns and their opponents have combined for at least 227 points in four straight games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 230 or more combined points in all four meetings, including 244 or more in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Duke/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 160.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team with first-year head coach Mark Pope running the show.  He brings over his pace and space philosophy from BYU, and it is already paying dividends at Kentucky.

The Wildcats rank 25th in adjusted tempo, 20th in average offensive possession length, and 17th in offensive rating.  They went OVER the total in each of their first two games beating Wright State 103-62 for 165 combined points and Bucknell 100-72 for 172 combined points.

Duke is absolutely loaded at the guard position this season and is playing faster than last year because of it.  The Blue Devils rank 3rd in offensive rating this season and 42nd on average length of offensive possessions.  They put up 100 points on Army and 96 points on Maine in their first two games.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +23

This is the rare situation where Iowa and South Dakota have two common opponents already to compare results to.  And after looking at those results, it's clearly there's value on South Dakota +23 at Iowa tonight.

South Dakota beat Southern 93-79 as 2.5-point home favorites and East Texas A&M 91-83 as 10.5-point home favorites.  The Coyotes outscored those two teams by a combined 22 points.

Iowa beat East Texas A&M 89-67 as 30-point home favorites and Southern 89-74 as 26-point home favorites.  The Hawkeyes outscored those two teams by a combined 37 points.

I just don't like Iowa's roster this season, while I like the direction of this South Dakota program entering head coach Eric Peterson's third year on the job.  He brings back three starters and several key reserves.  Two experienced guard transfers in Forte and Bullock join the team this season, as do the Bruns brothers, Paul and Isaac.  All four are making significant contributions already as all four are averaging double-digits scoring.  Bet South Dakota Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Bulls OVER 237

The Chicago Bulls have seen a shift in philosophy this season to play faster and shoot more 3's.  The Bulls are taking it to the extreme ranking 1st in the NBA in pace this season.  The Bulls are just 19th in defensive rating, so playing faster has hurt them defensively.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have seen the same shift in philosophy under Kenny Atkinson.  They are playing faster and shooting more 3's.  They rank 9th in pace and 1st in offensive rating.  This has the makings of an extremely high-scoring game tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS this season and the lone remaining unbeaten team in the NBA.  With that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very hard to live up to.

The Cavaliers are starting to lack motivation because of their fast start and are starting to feel 'fat and happy.  We have seen that play out in recent games as they have escaped with a couple close wins.  They only beat the Nets by 5 at home as 12.5-point favorites and the Bucks by 2 as 8.5-point home favorites.

The Bulls just got their best player in Zach LaVine back from injury and upset the Hawks 125-113 as 2.5-point road dogs last time out.  The Bulls are now fully healthy with the exception of Lonzo Ball.  They are more than capable of competing with the Cavaliers now.

The Bulls are 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Cavaliers only losing by 3 as 9-point road dogs and upsetting the Cavaliers by 9 as 5.5-point home dogs.  We will 'sell high' on unbeaten Cleveland tonight.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Brooklyn Nets -1.5

The Brooklyn Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They took both the Cavaliers and the Celtics to the wire on the road in their last two games to show their potential.  They lost 108-104 (OT) as 13.5-point dogs at Boston and 105-100 as 12.5-point dogs at Cleveland, and those are arguably the two best teams in the NBA.

Now the Nets get to take on the most injury-ravaged team in the NBA in the New Orleans Pelicans, who are 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall largely due to all these injuries.  They are without three starters right now in Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray.  They are also without two key role players in Herbert Jones and Jordan Hawkins.

With the Pelicans basically the worst team in the NBA right now in their current state given all their injuries, I'll gladly fade them again tonight.  The Nets should be favored by more.  Bet the Nets Monday.

15* Warriors/Thunder NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227

Two elite offensive teams that both like to play fast square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors visit the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder rank 4th in the NBA in pace this season while the Warriors rank 9th.  The Warriors rank 4th in offensive rating as well including 1st in shooting percentage and 4th in scoring.

The OVER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between the Warriors and Thunder with 234 or more combined points at the end of regulation in all eight meetings.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Timberwolves OVER 218

The Miami Heat lost Jimmy Butler to an ankle injury in the 1st quarter of their 135-122 loss at Denver last time out.  The Heat want to be more of a pace and space team this season, and sometimes the ball sticks when Butler is on the floor.  That slows down the tempo of the game.

We really saw it speed up against the Nuggets when he was off the floor for the remainder of the game.  The Heat shot 43 3-pointers in the loss.  They were much worse off defensively without Butler because he is one of the best defenders in the league.  So they are a dead nuts OVER team in their current start, and that will be even more of the case if they get bench player Jamie Jaquez back from injury today.

Minnesota looks much more like an OVER team this season.  The Timberwolves are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 229 or more combined points in four of those six games.  They went for 229 points with the Blazers at home last time out and 254 combined points with the Bulls in their previous game.  Anthony Edwards is going off, and newcomers Julius Randle and Dante DiVincenzo are fitting in nicely.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Hawks OVER 237.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team again this season.  They rank 3rd in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  Teams that play fast and play no defense always trend to the OVER, and this is a pretty low total for a game involving the Hawks right now.

The OVER is 9-1 in all Atlanta games this season with 232 or more combined points in nine of their 10 games.  It should be more of the same tonight against the Chicago Bulls, who have seen a shift in philosophy this season to play faster and shoot more 3's.

The Bulls are taking it to the extreme ranking 1st in the NBA in pace this season, so these are two of the top three teams in pace.  The Bulls are just 20th in defensive rating.  There is a good chance they get Zach LaVine back from injury tonight, but I like this total either way.  Chicago went for 256 combined points with Minnesota without him last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3

The Chicago Bulls are in a great spot tonight.  They had yesterday off and there's a good chance they get Zach LaVine back from injury.  The Bulls will be highly motivated for a win off four consecutive losses.

I like their chances of getting a win tonight against a tired, banged up Atlanta Hawks team.  The Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 5th game in 7 days and their 9th game in 14 days.  Trae Young played 41 minutes last night in a 122-121 road loss at Detroit.  James Johnson played 37 and Dyson Daniels 38 minutes.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.

The Bulls rank 1st in pace this season and will test Atlanta's tired legs.  The Hawks are once again a terrible defensive team this season ranking 25th in defensive rating.  The Bulls should be able to get what they want, and I think the Hawks will be affected most defensively with their fatigue.  Chicago is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on St. John's -20.5

In Rick Pitino I trust.  He led the St. John's Red Storm to a 20-13 season in his first year on the job last season and they were snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  So they have been motivated all offseason, and reinforcements are on the way.

One of the biggest pulls of the portal was bringing Kadary Richmond in from rival Seton Hall.  Utah transfer Deivon Smith (5 triple-doubles last year) and five-star freshman Simeon Wilcher will join Richmond in the backcourt.

RJ Luis (10.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) is the leading returning scorer and will lead them in the frontcourt.  North Texas transfer Aaron Scott is a great two-way player.  They have great size with 7-1 USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu along with freshmen Khaman Maker (7-1) and Ruben Prey (6-10).

St. John's blasted Fordham 92-60 as 19.5-point favorites in their opener, covering the spread by 12.5 points.  They showed off their depth with nine players scoring at least 5 points.

Quinnipiac had a troubling 88-62 loss at Yale as 8-point underdogs in their opener, failing to cover the spread by 18 points.  I don't give them much of a shot of keeping this game competitive in what will likely be their toughest test of the season today.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Louisville CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2

Louisville will likely be the most improved team in the country this season after going just 8-24 last season.  New head coach Pat Kelsey has injected life in the program and the athletics department relies on men's basketball revenue, so he had plenty of money to spend in the transfer portal.

Six upperclassmen transfers who averaged at least 9 points per game this season compromise Louisville's backcourt.  Kasean Pryor was the catalyst to USF's surprising season last year and now he's at Louisville.  James Scott follows Kelsey over from Charleston along with Reyne Smith and Kobe Rodgers.

The Cardinals blasted Morehead State 93-45 as 22-point favorites in their opener, covering the spread by 26 points.  They take on a Tennessee team that is down this season after losing four starters.  The lone returning starter is PG Zakai Zeigler, who isn't a great scorer.

Tennessee was unimpressive in its 80-64 win over Gardner-Webb as 27.5-point favorites in the opener, failing to cover the spread by 11.5 points.  Zeigler went 0-for-6 from 3-point range in the loss.  There's just too much on his shoulders here in the early going.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +3

The Denver Nuggets have taken a big step back this season with all they lost in the offseason, plus injuries.  The Nuggets are 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS this season with three of their wins coming in OT against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Raptors (twice) and Nets.  Another win came against the lowly Jazz.

Now the Nuggets are without two starters in Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, and they already were lacking a bench.  They managed to upset the Thunder 124-122 as 7-point home dogs without these two on Wednesday.  But that makes this a big letdown spot for them after handing the Thunder their first loss of the season.

Now they go from 7-point home dogs to 3-point home favorites over the Heat, and that's too big of an adjustment.  The Nuggets won't shoot nearly as well as they did against the Thunder without Murray and Gordon for a second consecutive game.

They face a Miami Heat team that will be highly motivated for a victory off two straight losses by a combined 4 points to the Suns and Kings, two of the better teams in the West.  They lost at the buzzer to the Kings and couldn't stop Kevin Durant late.  There's a good chance they get Jaime Jaquez back from an illness tonight and will be at full strength with the exception of Kevin Love.  They should not be underdogs to the Nuggets missing two of their three best players tonight.  Bet the Heat Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7

I love the spot for the Washington Wizards tonight.  They are the freshest team in the NBA having only played six games thus far while the Memphis Grizzlies have already played nine games.  The Wizards come in on three days' rest having the last three days off to rest and prepare for Memphis.

Memphis has no business being a 7-point favorite in this game when you look at their injury report.  The Grizzlies are without three starters in JA Morant, Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane.  They are also without two key role players in Vince Williams and GG Jackson, and John Konchar is questionable.

The Grizzlies are a tired, short-handed team playing their 6th game in 10 days.  They are coming off a huge win over the Lakers, but Morant got hurt late in that game and will be out for this one.  That makes this a letdown spot for them as well.  Keep in mind the Grizzlies have already lost to the Nets twice this season, and they'll let the Wizards hang around for four quarters in this one.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Santa Clara -5

Arizona State lost 103-47 to Duke in the exhibition season.  That was a sign of things to come for the Sun Devils, who are in rough shape this season.  That was also evident in their lackluster 55-48 home win over Idaho State as 18-point favorites.  That's an Idaho State team that lost four starters from last year and their leading returning scorer only averaged 7.7 points per game.

Arizona State went 14-18 last season, and Bobby Hurley is squarely on the hot season.  The Sun Devils lost four starters from that team including three double-digit scorers.  Clearly there's not much to like about the replacements with those results against Duke and Idaho State.

Herb Sendek is one of the more underrated coaches in the country.  He led the Broncos to a 20-13 season last year, reaching 20 wins four times in the past five years.  Three starters return in G Adama Alpha-Bal (14.4 PPG), F Johnny O'Neil (11.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and F Christoph Tilly (9.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG).  Several key reserves return including Knapper (6.1 PPG), Bryan (8.2 PPG), Tongue (4.7 PPG) and Ensminger (4.1 PPG).  Few teams start the season with as much chemistry as the Broncos.

Santa Clara opened with a 85-78 win as 2-point favorites over St. Louis.  That's a St. Louis team that was getting a lot of hype coming into the season after nabbing Indiana State Josh Schertz and two of his best players from that team in Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope.  They also brought back Gibson Jimmerson (15.8 PPG), who will be the school's all-time leading scorer in a few games.  It was an impressive result, and now the Broncos take a big step down in class here against the awful ASU.  Bet Santa Clara Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State/Alabama OVER 169.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the kings of pace and space.  They face another team in Arkansas State tonight that are trying to follow their blueprint with pace and space.  There's going to be a ton of possessions in this game as a result tonight.

Alabama is the No. 2ranked team in the country this season largely because they brought back senior PG Mark Spears (21.5 PPG last year).  They also brought back two more starters in Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (44% 3-pointers in conference) and Grant Nelson (11.9 PPG, 69% 2-pointers).  They added one of the best recruiting classes in the country and are loaded again.  They scored 110 points on UNC-Asheville in their opener.

Bryan Hodgson needed only one seasons to build the best offense in program history as the Red Wolves rannked 61st in offensive efficiency last season at KenPom.  They bring back four starters from that team, and they add in F Kobe Julien from conference rival Louisiana.  Taryn Dodd (12.8 PPG and Derrian Ford (10.4 PPG) form the best backcourt duo in the conference combining for 113 made 3-pointers last season.  They now have the depth to play at an even faster pace this season.

The Red Wolves won a 80-75 shootout with Akron in their opener.  They only shot six free throws and 9-of-30 (30%) from 3-point range as well.  They are due some positive shooting regression in this one, and they will be forced to try and keep pace with the Crimson Tide.  This is going to be a fun game tonight filled with offense.  I'm guessing Alabama tops 100 points again to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 169.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +13

The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA thus far.  They are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS not once really getting blown out.  They have upset wins over the Grizzlies (twice), the Bucks and they took the Nuggets to OT.

I love the spot for the Nets tonight as they come in on three days' rest after having the last three days off.  And while the Nets are pretty healthy right now, they take on a Boston Celtics team that is without two starters in Jalen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis.

The Celtics will be playing their 5th game in 8 days as well so they are the much more tired team.  They showed signs of wearing down last time out losing 118-112 at home to the Warriors as 7-point favorites.  They allowed the Warriors to score on every possession over the final four minutes.  They'll let the Nets hang around tonight.  Bet the Nets Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Pistons OVER 227.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team again this season.  They rank 3rd in pace and 26th in defensive rating.  Teams that play fast and play no defense always trend to the OVER, and this is a pretty low total for a game involving the Hawks right now.

The OVER is 8-1 in all Atlanta games this season with 232 or more combined points in eight of their nine games.  It should be more of the same tonight against the Detroit Pistons, who will have to go more small ball tonight without the services of C Jalen Duren, who is their most important defender.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings with 231 or more combined points in all seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Cincinnati -28.5

The No. 20 Cincinnati Bearcats are in the Top 25 this season to start the year and for good reason.  They brought back four starters from a team that finished 22-15 in the rugged Big 12 in their first season in the best college basketball conference in the country.

Three of their four returning starters averaged double-figures last season, plus they get back 7-footer Aziz Bandaogo (6.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG).  The Bearcats are off to an impressive start crushing Arkansas-Pine Bluff 109-54 as 37-point favorites.

Morehead State went 26-9 last season and made the NCAA Tournament.  But the Eagles lost their head coach in Preston Spradlin and lost four starters from that team.  First-year head coach Jonathan Mattox, a former team manager, has his hands full to say the least.

The Eagles lost five players that combined for 5,191 of the team's 7,000 minutes last season.  This is a complete rebuild, and that was obvious when they lost their opener 93-45 at Louisville as 22-point dogs.  It's going to take the books some time to catch up on just how bad this team really is.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +4

The Portland Trail Blazers are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in the early going.  They are just 3-5 SU but 5-2-1 ATS including upsetting the Clippers and taking the Suns to the wire on the road.

This is now a great spot for the Blazers as they come in on two days' rest, while the Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They showed signs of wearing down last night in their 127-100 road loss to Houston.

While the Blazers are almost fully healthy, the Spurs remain without PG Tre Jones and they just lost PF Jeremy Sochan (15.4 PPG, 7.7 RPG) to a broken thumb.  SG Devin Vassell (19.5 PPG last year) has yet to make his season debut, so being short-handed makes this tough rest situation even worse.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Florida -24

The Florida Gators have one of the best head coaches in the country in Todd Golden.  He led them to a 24-12 record in his second season last year and his team is absolutely loaded this season.  This is a fringe Top 25 team.

The Gators return G Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 PPG last season), G Will Richard (11.4 PPG) and F/C Alex Condon (7.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG).  They add in FAU transfer Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), Washington State transfer Reucen Chinyelu (4.7 RPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and Chattanooga transfer Sam Alexis (10.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG).  They also have 7-foot-9 freshman C Oliveir Rioux, the tallest player in the country to bolster their interior defense.

The Gators managed to cover as 11.5-point favorites in a 98-83 win over South Florida despite shooting just 5-of-25 (20%) from 3-point range while the Bulls shot 13-of-27 (48%).  That was an impressive result when you consider how poorly they shot the ball from distance and how great the Bulls shot it.

Jacksonville went 16-17 last season including 5-11 in the Atlantic Sun.  They are expected to be one of the worst teams in the A-Sun again, and it's easy to see why.  They had to grind out a 78-65 win over Division II Trinity Baptist at home in their opener.

Last year in non-conference play, Jacksonville lost by 23 at Xavier, by 51 at Pitt, by 42 at UCF and by 43 at Purdue.  I expect the Gators to make easy work of the Dolphins in this one.  Bet Florida Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Montana State +18

Montana State won the Big Sky Tournament last season and made the NCAA Tournament.  The Bobcats are the class of the Big Sky again this season with all they return.  I think they will give Wisconsin a run for its money tonight.

Montana State returns three starters in Brian Goracke (13.5 PPG), Brandon Walker (13.1 PPG) and Tyler Patterson (8.2 PPG).  They also return their instant offense off the bench in Patrick McMahon (13.0 PPG), plus two other key reserves.

Wisconsin loses three starters from a team that went 22-14 last season.  The Badgers part ways with AJ Storr (16.8 PPG), Tyler Wahl (10.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Chucky Hepburn (9.2 PPG).  They only return two starters in Steven Crowl (11.2 PPG) and Max Klesmit (9.9 PPG), and there's just not a lot to like about what this team did in the offseason.

Wisconsin actually trailed Holy Cross at halftime before pulling away in the 2H for a 85-61 win as 24-point favorites.  That's a Holy Cross team that was expected to finish near the bottom of the Patriot League this season after finishing 10-23 last season and losing a pair of double-digit scorers from that team.  It's was a bad look for the Badgers, and they will be in for more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Bet Montana State Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -6

The Oklahoma City Thunder are an absolute wagon this season.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming by a 0.5-point.  They covered the other six games by a combined 62 points.  Books just can't set their numbers high enough at this point.

Now they get to face a depleted, struggling Denver Nuggets team.  The Nuggets are 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS this season with three of their wins coming in OT against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Raptors (twice) and Nets.  Their other win came against the lowly Jazz.

Now the Nuggets are without two starters in Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, and they already were lacking a bench.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without those two tonight.

The Thunder beat the Nuggets 102-87 on the road in their first meeting this season on October 24th.  And that was when both Murray and Gordon were healthy, which isn't the case anymore.  Another blowout win in OKC's favor will be the result tonight.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +11

The Dallas Mavericks just can't be trusted as double-digit favorites in the Luka Doncic era.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition, and he is the catalyst for that bringing it against good teams, and taking nights off against bad ones.

But I don't think the Bulls are a bad team, and they certainly should not be catching double-digits tonight.  The Bulls have upset road wins over the Bucks and Grizzlies this season as well as an upset home win over the Magic.  But they are coming off a home loss to the Jazz that has them undervalued, and we'll 'buy low' on them now.

The Mavericks have already been upset at home twice this season losing outright to the Pacers as 4.5-point favorites and outright to the Rockets as 6.5-point favorites.  They also only beat the Jazz by 8 as 12-point favorites.

The Bulls are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Mavericks OVER 234.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team this season embracing playing fast and shooting more 3-pointers than they had previously under Billy Donovan.  In fact, the Bulls rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season.

The Bulls are 5-2 OVER this season with 232 or more combined points in five of their seven games this season.  They are coming off a 261-point effort against the Jazz last time out in regulation.

The Mavericks played a similar team in the Pacers last time out and combined for 261 points with them.  This game will play out similarly, and the books haven't set this total high enough.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are in awful shape right now with injuries piling up.  They are without four key contributors including three starters in CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Trent Murphy.  They are also without Herbert Jones, and another starter in Zion Williamson is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Another key contributor in Jordan Hawkins is questionable with a back injury.

The Pelicans are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their last two games were very concerning as they lost 126-111 at home to a short-handed Atlanta Hawks team and 118-100 at home to a bad Portland Trail Blazers team.

I give the Pelicans little chance of keeping this game competitive as they take a big step up in class here against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Cavs have proven to be one of the best teams in the NBA this season, going 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS with several blowout wins along the way.  They hired Kenny Atkinson in the offseason, and he is getting the most out of what is one of the most talented, experienced rosters in the NBA.

Cleveland is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in its last five meetings with New Orleans.  That includes wins by 21 and 11 points in their last two trips to New Orleans.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers -6.5

This is a fade of the Orlando Magic, who are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their four games since losing their best player in Paulo Banchero.  They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 32 points in the four games since he went down.  They are also without starting C Wendell Carter Jr right now.

This is a tired, short-handed Magic team playing their 8th game in 14 days.  Now they must travel to Indiana to face a Pacers team that will push the pace and test those tired legs.

It's also a Pacers team that will be out for revenge from a 119-115 road loss at Orlando on October 28th in their first meeting this season.  Banchero scored a career-high 50 points in that game! Carter had 11 points and 10 rebounds as well.  They will be sorely missed, and I give the Magic little to no chance of keeping this game competitive without them.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Notre Dame -27

Notre Dame head coach Micah Shrewsberry was able to keep his top four scorers and five of his top six scorers from last season in an age where it's hard to keep players around.  So I like the chemistry the Fighting Irish will have from the jump this season.

They were one of the youngest teams in the country last season, but now they are going to be one of the most experienced.  They hang their hats on defense and defense as well as almost anyone in the country, and Markus Burton (17.5 PPG last year) is one of the best players in the country already entering his sophomore season.

Stonehill is expected to be one of the worst teams in the Northeast Conference this season.  The Skyhawks lose their top three scorers and four of five starters from last season's team that went just 4-27.  They can't be any worse, but they won't be much better, either.  I don't think they are capable of staying within 30 points of the Fighting Irish in their opener.  Bet Notre Dame Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech -28.5

Texas Tech is loaded this season off a 23-11 campaign last year.  I love head coach Grant McCasland, who has won everywhere he has been.  He turned a Texas Tech team that went 16-16 and 5-13 in the Big 12 in the previous season to 23-11 and 11-7 in the Big 12 in his first year.

Four key contributors return including three of the best 3-point shooters in the Big 12.  "I think we have three of the best 3-point shooters returning in the country," McCasland said. "They are all guys who impact the game offensively and are tremendous."

Texas Tech added two impact guards in the transfer portal with Minnesota transfer Elijah Hawkins (6.4 APG career) and Drake transfer Kevin Overton (11.3 PPG last year).  F Devan Cambridge (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) returns after his season was cut short after just eight games last year.  But the biggest offseason acquisition was Mountain West Freshman of theYear JT Toppin from New Mexico.  They also added Pitt transfer Federiko Federiko who is an instant impact defender down low.

Bethune-Cookman went 17-17 last season out of the SWAC.  Head coach Reggie Theus is just 38-58 in three years here.  The Wildcats lost three starters from last year including their top two scorers in Dhashon Dyson (14.0 PPG) and Jakobi Heady (15.4 PPG).  They bring back just two starters in Reggie Ward Jr. (9.6 PPG) and Seneca Willoughby (3.5 PPG), and they don't bring back anyone off the bench who made significant contributions.  This looks like a very tough year ahead for Theus and the Wildcats, starting with their opener against the Red Raiders.  Bet Texas Tech Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Portland Trail Blazers +2.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA in the early going.  They are just 2-5 SU but 4-2-1 ATS including upsetting the Clippers and taking the Suns to the wire on the road.  They have already played the Pelicans twice and outscored them 230-206 in the two meetings.  It will be more of the same in the 3rd meeting tonight.

The Pelicans are in even worse shape now than they were in those first two meetings.  The injuries are really piling up for this team.  They are without four key contributors including three starters in CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Trent Murphy.  They are also without Herbert Jones, and another starter in Zion Williamson is questionable with a hamstring injury.

We saw what the Pelicans were without all these guys last night when they lost 126-111 as 1-point home dogs to the short-handed Atlanta Hawks, who are almost as banged up as they are currently.  The Pelicans will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, so they will have nothing left in the tank for Portland tonight.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Charlotte Hornets are at least an average NBA team when they are healthy, and that is pretty much the case right now.  They just got Brandon Miller back from injury, and as long as they have LaMelo Ball healthy they are at least an average team.

Ball is showing what he is capable of when healthy averaging 30.2 points per game, 6.3 assists per game and 5.0 rebounds per game.  He is shooting 47.4% from the floor and 40.5% from 3-point range on 74 attempts.  He is one of the most underrated superstars in the league because he plays in Charlotte.

I just haven't been impressed with the Timberwolves this season as they clearly miss Karl-Anthony Towns.  They are 3-3 SU but 1-5 ATS with their lone cover coming by a single point in a 117-115 win at Sacramento as 1-point favorites, which was a Kings team on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They beat Toronto by 11 as 14.5-point home favorites and Denver by 3 as 3.5-point home favorites.  They also lost by 10 at San Antonio as 4-point favorites, lost by 6 at home to the Mavericks as 4-point favorites and lost by 7 at the Lakers as 1-point dogs.

As you can see, the Timberwolves haven't blown anyone out yet, and asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Rockets OVER 217.5

This is a very low total for an NBA game this season.  It's only low because both teams are playing slow compared to the rest, but I trust both do be efficient offensively tonight.  The Rockets want to play fast and should pick up the pace moving forward.

The Knicks have gone for 128, 116 and 123 points in three of their last four games.  We've seen at least 216 combined points in all five games involving the Knicks this season, including 221 or more four times.  They are an elite offensive team this season with the additions of Towns and Bridges.

The Rockets are loaded offensively this season as well.  They are coming off a 127-121 (OT) loss to the Warriors in a game that was tied 119-119 at the end of regulation for 238 combined points.  I think that's a sign of things to come for the Rockets.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Bulls OVER 228

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team this season embracing playing fast and shooting more 3-pointers than they had previously under Billy Donovan.  In fact, the Bulls rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season.

Now the Bulls play another team that likes to play fast and plays no defense in the Utah Jazz.  The Jazz rank 7th in pace this season and 22nd in defensive rating.  The Jazz are allowing 118.5 points per game this season.  The Bulls are allowing 116.8 points per game.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 236, 243 and 244 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Opening Night BLOWOUT on Florida -10

The Florida Gators have one of the best head coaches in the country in Todd Golden.  He led them to a 24-12 record in his second season last year and his team is absolutely loaded this season.  This is a fringe Top 25 team.

The Gators return G Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 PPG last season), G Will Richard (11.4 PPG) and F/C Alex Condon (7.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG).  They add in FAU transfer Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), Washington State transfer Reucen Chinyelu (4.7 RPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and Chattanooga transfer Sam Alexis (10.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG).  They also have 7-foot-9 freshman C Oliveir Rioux, the tallest player in the country to bolster their interior defense.

But as much as I like the Florida Gators this season, this is more of a fade of South Florida than anything.  Their program is in turmoil not only because they lose their top three scorers to the transfer portal from a team that surprisingly went 25-8 last season, but they also lost their star head coach in Amir Abdur-Rahim from complications due to an illness just a couple weeks ago.  I question how much these players even want to play this season without him.

The Bulls lost Chris Younglood (15.3 PPG, 41.6% 3-pointers), Selton Miguel (14.7 PPG, 39% 3-pointers) and Kasean Pryor (13.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG) who were the three biggest reasons for their success last year.  The lone returning starters are Kobe Knox (8.4 PPG) and Brendon Stroud (5.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG).  I think it's going to start very badly for USF this season with a blowout loss to the Gators.  Bet Florida Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat PK

The Miami Heat are loaded this season and fully healthy right now.  They get two sharp shooters in Kevin Love and Duncan Robinson back from injury tonight, and they should be at full strength for basically the first time all season.

I'm just not a big fan of this Sacramento Kings team because they don't play defense, while the Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Kings are coming off a 131-128 loss as 9.5-point favorites at Toronto, which is a short-handed Raptors team.  Their only three wins this season came against the depleted Hawks, the depleted Jazz and the Blazers, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Heat are 3-2 this season with their only losses coming to the Magic in their opener back when Orlando was healthy and the Knicks, who are one of the best teams in the East.  The Heat have handled the teams they are supposed to, and they are extremely fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and just their 5th game in 12 days.  

The Heat are 3-0 SU in their last three meetings with the Kings.  Bet the Heat Monday.

15* CBB Opening Night Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Indiana State UNDER 153

Both FAU and Indiana State were decimated by the transfer portal and graduation this offseason.  They both also have new head coaches, and I expect both to really struggle offensively in the season opener as a result.

After leading FAU to 60 wins the past two seasons, head coach Dustin May is off to Michigan.  Baylor assistant John Jakus is tasked with rebuilding a team that only returns one player from last year's team in Tre Carroll (4.0 PPG).  Gone are Johnell Davis (18.2 PPG), Vladislav Goldin (15.7 PPG), Alijah Martin (13.1 PPG), Nick Boyd (9.3 PPG) and Brandon Weatherspoon (7.2 PPG).

Indiana State went 32-7 last season riding an offense that was one of the best in the country.  But head coach Josh Schertz parlayed that success into a new gig at St. Louis.  Gone are all five starters that led to his success in Avila (17.4 PPG), Conwell (16.6 PPG), Swope (15.9 PPG), Kent (13.5 PPG) and Larry (11.0 PPG).  Top assistant Matthew Graves inherits a roster that returns just three scholarship players who combined for a grand total of 92 points last season.

Both teams will be lost offensively in the season opener, so look for points to be very hard to come by tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Suns OVER 224

The Phoenix Suns are playing faster and shooting more 3's this season under Mike Budenholzer.  They are starting to gel and have some of the best talent in the entire NBA to run his system.

The Suns are coming off a 125-119 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers for 244 combined points.  The Blazers are coming off a 137-114 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder and 251 combined points.  This total of 224 is too low for this matchup tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +11

The Charlotte Hornets will be the more motivated team tonight out for revenge from a 124-109 home loss to the Boston Celtics as 10.5-point underdogs last night.  Now the Hornets come back as even higher 11-point dogs in the rematch, and this number is too high given the motivational edge for Charlotte in this quick revenge spot.

Boston's starters will be more taxed than Charlotte's for this rematch.  Tatum, Brown and White all played at least 35 minutes for the Celtics last night.  Nobody played more than 31 minutes for the Hornets.  Plus, there's a chance Brandon Miller returns from injury tonight being listed as day-to-day after sitting last night.

This will only be the 3rd game in 7 days for the Hornets, while it will be the 7th game in 12 days for the Celtics.  The spot really favors the double-digit home underdog tonight.  Bet the Hornets Saturday.

15* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 218.5

This will be a rematch from the Western Conference semifinals last season.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and these teams could not be more familiar with one another.

These are two of the slower-paced teams in the league again this season.  The Nuggets currently rank 25th in pace while the Timberwolves rank 24th.  And the Timberwolves took a big hit offensively when they lost Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks in the offseason.

Points have been very hard to come by in this series.  The Timberwolves and Nuggets have combined for 209 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  It will be more of the same tonight as these two know each other inside and out.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 221.5

The Clippers hired Jeff Van Gundy to run their defense in the offseason.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team playing some of the best defense in the entire NBA, plus the fact that their offense is in shambles without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.  Leonard is hurt and they let George go to the 76ers.

The UNDER would be 4-0 in all Clippers games this season if not for an OT game.  They have gone for 216 or fewer points at the end of regulation in all four games.  That one OT game was against these same Phoenix Suns in their season opener.

That game was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation for just 206 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will be another defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

The Suns are playing much better defense this season under head coach Mike Budenholzer.  The UNDER would be 3-1 in all Phoenix games if not for OT, and they have seen 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in three of their four games.  

The Clippers rank 3rd in defensive rating while the Suns rank 6th thus far.  The Clippers rank 22nd in pace while the Suns rank 19th, so neither are playing fast.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +6

The Houston Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They brought back pretty much everyone from a team that went on an 11-game winning streak last March to make a run at the playoffs.  They added some good pieces, and I like head coach Ime Udoka.

The spot is really good for the Rockets tonight as well.  They come in on two days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  They play a Dallas Mavericks team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Jazz by 8 at home and the Timberwolves by 6 on the road.

The Mavericks have been far from impressive this season beating the Jazz by 8 and the Spurs by 11 at home, and losing by 12 to the Suns on the road.  They are getting too much respect for their upset win at Minnesota last time out.  It's clearly a bad matchup for the Timberwolves after losing in five games to the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals last year.

The Rockets played the Mavericks tough last year despite going 1-3 SU.  They won by 26 at home and two of their three losses came by 6 points in regulation and another in OT.  Houston is a very live underdog tonight given the big rest advantage.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Warriors UNDER 221

I was on the under 217.5 last night between the Pelicans and Warriors, and I'll certainly take it again at an even better number of 221 tonight.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and with this being the 2nd meeting in 2 days these teams are obviously familiar with one another.

A big reason I was on the under last night was because the Warriors were without their top two scorers in Curry and Wiggins, while the Hawks were without one of their best scorers in Dejounte Murray.  There's a good chance all three will be out again tonight.

After just 98 combined points at halftime last night, these teams exploded by 132 combined points in the 2H and it was a pretty tough beat.  The Pelicans shot 53% as a team, while the Warriors shot an unsustainable 21-of-46 (46%) from 3-point range.  I think both teams are due some big-time shooting regression in the rematch tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -12

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season and neck-and-neck with the Boston Celtics as the best teams in the NBA.  The three wins came by 15 at Denver, by 19 at Chicago and by 24 at home over Atlanta.

Now the Thunder have had the last two days off and will be highly motivated to put on a show on ESPN tonight.  They get to host one of the worst teams in the NBA in the San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS this season with their lone win coming over the Rockets by 3 at home in the 2nd of a back-to-back for Houston.  They lost by 11 at Dallas, and then lost tot he Rockets by 5 at home in the rematch.  This will be far and away their toughest test of the season, and they will be without two key players in Vassell and Jones tonight.

The Thunder own the Spurs going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Each of their last five wins have come by 12 points or more.  These games haven't even been close, and this one won't be either.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat +2

The Miami Heat are close to full strength right now and have great chemistry with basically their entire team back from last season.  They are playing with a sense of urgency early in the season because they are tired of having to make the playoffs through the play-in.  This looks like one of the best teams in the East on paper, and I like the switch to more 3's and more looks at the rim instead of mid-range jumpers from this team in the early going.

The New York Knicks are already banged up and short-handed, which cost them in the playoffs last season.  Jalen Brunson is already beat up, Josh Hart is questionable with a leg injury, and they are without two key bench pieces in Achiuwa and Robinson.  They are trying to implement Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges into the offense, and it's a work in progress in the early going.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series between Miami and New York.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings. Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +4.5

The Detroit Pistons are 0-4 SU this season and highly motivated for their first win of the season.  They have been very close to winning against some very good teams despite that record, and I expect them to get over the hump tonight against the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers.

The Pistons lost by 6 to the Pacers, by 12 to the Cavs, by 6 to the Celtics and by 8 to the Heat.  They took all those teams to the wire and all four are expected to be shoe-ins to make the playoffs this season.  They are very healthy right now to boot.

The same cannot be said for the 76ers, who are without their two best players in Joel Embiid and Paul George.  This is one of the worst rosters in the NBA without those two, and it is showing.  There's not much to like outside Tyrese Maxey, who has a lot on his shoulders trying to carry this team without their other two stars.

The 76ers are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS including an upset loss to the lowly Toronto Raptors.  They also lost by 15 to the Bucks at home and pulled the surprising upset over the Pacers last time out, which has them overvalued now.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Warriors UNDER 217.5

Injuries to the Golden State Warriors are the reason I'm on the UNDER tonight.  They will be without their two best scorers in Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins.  They are going to have to rely on defense led by Draymond Green to try and be competitive until they get these guys back because they are going to be lost offensively without Curry and Wiggins.

The Pelicans spent a lot to get Dejounte Murray (22.5 PPG last season) from the Atlanta Hawks in the offseason.  Well, Murray suffered fractured hand in their opener and they will now be without him for 4-6 weeks.

In their two games without Murray since, the Pelicans struggled offensively scoring just 105 and 103 points in two meetings with the Portland Trail Blazers, who aren't exactly a top-notch defensive squad.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +5.5

The Denver Nuggets are the most overrated team in the NBA this season.  They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Magic in the offseason and they have one of the worst benches in the NBA.  They are top-heavy with Jokic, Gordon and Murray and it is showing.

Indeed, the Nuggets are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  They lost outright 102-87 as 2-point home favorites to the Thunder, lost outright 109-104 as 7.5-point home favorites to the Clippers and needed a 14-point comeback to beat the lowly Toronto Raptors 127-125 (OT) as 8.5-point road favorites.

That's a Toronto team missing several of their best players and is currently likely the worst team in the NBA.  They also lost Scottie Barnes during the game.  But now the short-handed Nuggets will have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back off that OT win last night.  Jokic played 43 minutes, Gordon 42, Murray 39, Porter Jr. 39 and Braun 39.  They only had three players play any significant minutes off the bench, so I question how much they'll have left in the tank tonight.

I've been impressed with the start by the Brooklyn Nets, who look to be a sleeper in the early going.  They Nets only lost by 4 at Atlanta as 7-point dogs and upset Milwaukee by 13 as 8.5-point home dogs in their lone home game.  They also lost by 15 to one of the best teams in the NBA in the Orlando Magic on the road.  Given the tough spot for the Nuggets, I think the Nets can hang tonight and will likely win this game outright.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

20* Lakers/Suns NBA TV No-Brainer on Phoenix -3.5

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 123-116 road loss to the Lakers on October 25th.  They don't have to wait long for their revenge as they now host the Lakers just three days later.

The Suns were impressive in their home opener beating the Mavericks 114-102 despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back while the Mavericks were rested.  They were also without Bradley Beal, who could return to face the Lakers tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Lakers after opening 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with three narrow wins all by 7 points or less.  All three wins were at home, and now they have to hit the road for the first time this season.  They are 'fat and happy' right now and won't be all that motivated to try and beat the Suns for a 2nd time this season.  Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -2.5

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from their 109-106 loss in San Antonio on Saturday, October 26th.  They don't have to wait long for their revenge as they now face the Spurs again two days later.

The Spurs had a huge rest advantage in that first meeting as they had the previous day off, while the Rockets were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Grizzlies at home on Friday.  Now there is no rest advantage for the Spurs, and I expect them to get blasted by the Rockets, who are far and away the superior team this season.  

The Rockets are pretty much fully healthy while the Spurs are without Devin Vassell and could be without backup PG Tre Jones, who is important in spelling the aging Chris Paul.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic -6

The Orlando Magic are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this season.  They brought back pretty much everyone from their team that took the Cavaliers to 7 games in the opening round of the playoffs.  They also added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope from the Nuggets, and he is one of the best 3-and-D players in the league, and Denver clearly misses him.

But this is a play against the Pacers as much as anything.  This is a brutal spot for the Pacers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-114 (OT) loss at home to the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers last night who were without Embiid and George.

Haliburton played 37 minutes, Siakam 40, and Turner 37 minutes for the Pacers last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Magic, who had yesterday off and will be motivated to bounce back from their first loss this season at Memphis on Saturday.

The Magic are going to have a huge advantage in the paint because the Pacers have no depth behind Turner after losing C James Wiseman to injury in the opener.  They are getting killed on the boards and the Magic thrive rebounding the ball with all their size.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +6.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 105-103 home loss to the Pelicans on Friday, and they don't have to wait long to get it as they host the Pelicans here Sunday in a rematch.

Brandon Ingram hit the game-winner with only seconds remaining.  But there is a lot on his shoulders right now because the Pelicans just lost Dejounte Murray for 4-6 weeks to a fractured hand suffered in their opener.  They are short-handed right now and that's why they struggled with the Blazers in their first game without him.  They will struggle again here tonight.

The Blazers have a really good trio of starters Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and DeAndre Ayton.  I also like Scoot Henderson off the bench, and rookie Donovan Clingan is only going to continue to get more comfortable in the NBA with each passing game.  Simons and Grant combined for 58 points in that first matchup, and I expect them to shoulder the load in the rematch here.  I'll gladly back the more motivated team catching 6.5 points at home here.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Blazers UNDER 220

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Blazers and Pelicans.  The Pelicans won 105-103 on a game-winner by Brandon Ingram on Friday night.  It will be another low-scoring game in the rematch tonight.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 214 or fewer combined points in four of those five meetings, including the 208 they combined for on Friday.  The Pelicans being without Dejounte Murray makes them more of an UNDER team because he is a scorer and they will miss him considering how much they were relying on him coming into this season.  Trey Murphy is also out after averaging 14.8 points per game and 38% 3-point shooting last season, and they will miss his shooting.

The Blazers are going to have to rely more on defense this season to be competitive because they are lacking scorers outside of Grant and Simons.  They were held to 104 points by the Warriors and 103 by the Pelicans in their first two games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.  

15* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas Mavericks -2.5

This is a brutal spot for the Phoenix Suns.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  After needing OT to beat the short-handed Clippers in Los Angeles, they blew a 15-point 1st quarter lead to the Lakers and lost 123-116 last night.  They clearly wore down in the 2H, and they won't have much left in the tank for the rested Dallas Mavericks tonight.

The Suns can't handle these back-to-back situations as well as most teams because they have one of the worst benches in the NBA.  Durant played 38 minutes, Beal 35 and Booker 35 last night.  These back-to-back situations are especially taxing on their Big 3.

The Mavericks brought back almost everyone from their team that made the NBA Finals last year.  They also added Klay Thompson on free-agency, and Thompson made a splash going 6-of-10 from 3-point range in their 120-109 win over the Spurs on Thursday in their opener.  They have one of the best benches in the NBA and will certainly have a big advantage when the Suns turn to their bench in this one.

The Mavericks are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings, which includes a 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS record in their last four trips to Phoenix.  With such a big rest advantage here, the Mavericks are favored for good reason on the road and should win this game by 3-plus points to cover this 2.5-point spread.  Bet the Mavericks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -2

The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year.  The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs.

Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch.  They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams.  They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.  I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season.

I came up short backing the Rockets in their opener as they were upset by the Charlotte Hornets.  The Rockets shot 38-of-103 (37%) including 13-of-43 (30%) from 3-point range against the Hornets.  I came back on them last night in their 128-108 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies as they predictably shot much better.

I'm back on the Rockets again tonight because after making easy work of the Grizzlies, they will still have plenty of energy left for the Spurs tonight.  The Rockets are also one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can handle these back-to-back situations better than most this season.

The Spurs are coming off a 120-109 road loss to the Mavericks in their opener.  I just don't love this team playing Chris Paul so many minutes.  It also hurts that they are without Paul's backup in PG Tre Jones, and arguably their best scorer in Devin Vassell is out as well.  There's just not a lot to like about this team right now aside from Victor Wembanyama, who the Rockets will focus on stopping.

The Rockets have owned the Spurs going 5-1 SU in the last six meetings with their lone loss coming in overtime.  Four of the five wins came by double-digits.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3.5

This is a brutal spot for the Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and in their 3rd different city.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank for the Miami Heat tonight.

The Hornets pulled the 110-105 upset win in their opener on Wednesday before falling short 125-120 in Atlanta last night.  So they used max effort in both games, and they lost one of their best players in Brandon Miller to injury, and he remains out tonight.

The Heat will be highly motivated for a victory after losing 116-97 at home to the Orlando Magic in the opener.  They have had the last two days off to practice and get things right heading into this one.  Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 2-of-13 shooting and 12 points in that loss to the Magic, and they will be much sharper tonight against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Hornets.

The Heat owned the Hornets last season winning all four meetings.  They should make easy work of this tired Charlotte team with a huge rest advantage tonight.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -2

The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year.  The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs.

Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch.  They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams.  They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.  I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season.

I came up short backing the Rockets in their opener as they were upset by the Charlotte Hornets.  But now this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Rockets as only 2-point home favorites over the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Rockets shot 38-of-103 (37%) including 13-of-43 (30%) from 3-point range against the Hornets.  They are due some positive shooting regression.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 126-124 road win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Utah Jazz. Memphis is missing four key players right now in Jaren Jackson Jr., Luke Kennard, Vince Williams and GG Jackson.  I don't think they have the horses to take down the Rockets on the road, especially without Jackson Jr.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 221.5

The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year.  The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs.

Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch.  They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams.  They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.  I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season both ATS and on OVER bets.

I came up short backing the Rockets in their opener as they were upset by the Charlotte Hornets.  But the Rockets shot 38-of-103 (37%) including 13-of-43 (30%) from 3-point range against the Hornets.  They are due some positive shooting regression, and this total is lower than it should be because of that poor shooting performance in their opener.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 126-124 road win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Utah Jazz with 250 combined points. Memphis is missing its best defender in Jaren Jackson Jr., and the Grizzlies are going to be an OVER team until he returns to lead their defense.  They have plenty of offense without him and are an OVER team as long as Ja Morant is on the floor and running this offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9.5

I think the Chicago Bulls are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  Billy Donovan has embraced playing faster and shooting more 3's in the preseason, and getting rid of DeMar DeRozan will allow them to play more team basketball now.

Coby White, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Patrick Williams and Ayo Dosunmu are all back and healthy this season.  They traded for Josh Giddey of the Thunder and added Jalen Smith from the Pacers.

This is a good time to 'buy low' on the Bulls after losing 123-111 at New Orleans as 5-point underdogs in their opener.  The Bulls shot just 10-of-34 (29%) from 3-point range and are due some positive shooting regression.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks, who took advantage of the 76ers being without their two best players in Embiid and George and won 124-109 as 4-point favorites in their opener.  The Bucks shot 54% as a team and are due some negative shooting regression, plus they take a big step up in class here against the Bulls.

The Bulls went 3-1 ATS in their four meetings with the Bucks last season with three of the four decided by 9 points or less, including two that went to OT.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* Thunder/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team in the West this season.  They earned the No. 1 seed last year.  They traded for Alex Caruso and signed Isaiah Hartenstein, though he will miss a month to injury.  Getting Caruso in their for Josh Giddey is an instant upgrade.

While I'm very high on the Thunder this season, I'm pretty low on the Denver Nuggets.  They just don't have much to like outside Jokic, Murray, Gordon and Porter Jr.  They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Magic, and he's one of the best 3-and-D guards in the league.

The Nuggets acquired the No. 22 overall pick DaRon Holmes II from the Phoenix Suns on draft night, but he has since torn his Achilles.  They had to sign Dario Saric to be Jokic's backup, and that's a problem.  They also signed Russell Westbrook, and we know how much of a cancer he can be off the bench.  The Nuggets' lack of quality depth is a big problem this season.

The Thunder went 3-0 SU in their final three meetings with the Nuggets last season including a pair of upset wins in Denver.  I fully expect them to win their opener outright as well.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Wizards OVER 231.5

The Boston Celtics showed what kind of team they are going to be this season in their opener against the New York Knicks.  They are going to shoot even more 3's this season and embrace it, just as many other NBA teams are expected to do.  This is quickly becoming an 'OVER' league as a result.

Nobody shoots the 3-pointer better than the Celtics, and that was on display in their 132-109 home win over the Knicks in the opener that saw 241 combined points.  They tied an NBA record with 29 made 3's on a whopping 61 attempts.  They missed their last 13 attempts trying to break the record.  Only 41 points were scored in the 4th quarter and it still finished with 241 combined.

Now the Celtics face the Washington Wizards, who are coming off the worst record in team history at 15-67.  A big reason for their struggles is the fact that they were the worst defensive team in the NBA, and it's not going to get much better this season.  They are still led by two one-way players in Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma who don't play defense.  They will implement some good young talent this season, but they won't be better defensively.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 254, 234, 262, 233, 241 and 251 combined points.  As you can see, all six went over this 231.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Suns/Clippers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -4.5

The Phoenix Suns already had the Big 3 of Durant, Beal and Booker.  They just needed the right pieces around them and the right head coach, and I think they had the best hire of the offseason in bringing in Mike Budenholzer, who won a title in 2021 with the Bucks over the Suns.

Despite having some of the best shooters on the planet, the Suns shot just 32.6 3-pointers per game last season.  The best teams shoot around 40 each night.  In five preseason games, the Suns averaged 44 3-point attempts per game.

The big addition was Tyus Jones from the Wizards as he can be the point guard to run the offense so the ball doesn't stick in the Big 3's hands.  He is a real point guard, Monte Morris is a real backup and Mason Plumlee will do the dirty work off the bench behind Jusuf Nurkic.  This now looks like a real contender in the West.

As much as I love the Suns, this is more of a play against the Clippers than anything.  They traded away Paul George in the offseason, and Kawhi Leonard is hurt to start the season to nobody's surprise.  So they are without their two best players from last year.  James Harden is way past his prime and will be counted upon to do too much until Leonard is ready to return.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Houston Rockets found something after center Alperen Sengun went out and missed the final 18 games last year.  The Rockets leaned into playing at a much faster pace, and they won 11 straight games in March to make a run at the playoffs.

Spearheading that run was Jalen Green, who averaged 30.2 points per game during that stretch.  They signed Green and Sengun to multi-year contracts in the offseason, and teaming up with these young stars will be veterans VanVleet, Brooks, Jeff Green and Steven Adams.  They have plenty of depth with Jabari Smith Jr, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.  I love head coach Ime Udoka, and this will be one of my favorite teams to back this season.

The Charlotte Hornets are relying too much two injury-plagued youngsters in LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams.  Ball will be healthy to start the season, but Williams is already out.  I like parts of Brandon Miller's game, but there's just not much to like about this team as a whole.  They have yet another new head coach in Charles Lee, and it's going to take some time for this team to gel.  They aren't on the Rockets' level on opening night, and this one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers made the Eastern Conference Finals last season.  They didn't lose any starters or key reserves in the offseason, and they are going to have a lot of chemistry early in the season as a result.  I look to back teams with chemistry early.

The Detroit Pistons will be lacking chemistry.  They made two of the worst moves of the offseason paying Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway who will both play significant minutes for them.  There is promise with Cunningham, Ivey and Duren as their young nucleus, but there's not much else to like about this team.

The Pistons are going through another coaching change hiring JB Bickerstaff, who was fired by the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I think he is one of the worst coaches in the NBA, and I don't expect him to get the most out of this team, especially early in the season.

The Pacers went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings with the Pistons last season winning by 23, 19, 14 and 8 points.  This number is too short in the opener.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota ML -110

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a real contender in the West this season after making the Western Conference Finals last year.  I like their chemistry with first-year head coach Chris Finch, and they have the best player on the floor in Anthony Edwards.

The Timberwolves lose Karl-Anthony Towns, but I think the two pieces they got in a trade more than make up for it.  Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo come over in the trade.  Now the Timberwolves don't have to worry about playing Towns and Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert at the same time, which was an issue at times last year.

The Lakers are going through yet another coaching change bringing in JJ Redick.  They struck out on Dan Hurley, and Redick was their second choice, which is already a negative.  I think Darvin Ham got thrown under the bus.

LeBron James is past his prime, and the Lakers wasted a draft pick on Bronny James, who was one of the worst players in the NBA in the preseason.  They just don't have a lot of reliable scorers outside James and Anthony Davis, which has been a problem for them since they teamed up.  

The Lakers are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in NBA season openers in the LeBron James era.  I trust the Timberwolves to be more ready for the opener than the Lakers in this one.  Bet the Timberwolves on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on New York +5.5

The New York Knicks are the perfect regular season team.  They show up every night, and they will be hungry after injuries decimated their team in the playoffs in a Game 7 loss to the Pacers.  They are pretty much fully healthy and motivated to begin 2024-25.

I love the move to bring in Karl-Anthony Towns, who played under Tom Thibodeau in Minnesota.  He adds instant scoring a 3-point shooting as the Knicks are already good enough defensively.  They also brought in another former Villanova player in Mikal Bridges from the Brooklyn Nets to team him with Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart.  The Knicks took off after trading for OG Anunoby last year, and he's healthy after getting injured in the playoffs.  You would be hard-pressed to find a better starting 5 in the entire NBA than Brunson, Hart, Towns, Bridges and Anunoby.

The Celtics finally got over the hump and won their title last year.  I have no doubt their will be a championship hangover early in the season for the Celtics, and they won't be nearly as motivated early.  They are also without Kristaps Porzingis to start the season after he averaged 20.1 points per game in his 57 games last year.

The Knicks want to make a statement in Game 1, and I think we get a big effort from them and a lackluster effort from the Celtics after receiving their championship rings.  It will certainly be good enough to cover 5.5 and likely win outright tonight.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Mavericks/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Dallas +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks feel like they are playing on house money now after everyone counted them out down 3-0.  They responded with their best effort of the playoffs in a 122-84 home win over the Boston Celtics in Game 4.  The Celtics made the mistake of giving them life, and now will struggle to close out this series.

The pressure is squarely on Boston with all the failures they have had in trying to win a title with this current group of players.  I think that pressure will get to them in Game 5, and the Mavericks care-free approach will continue with another big effort and likely and outright win.

The Mavericks managed to win by 38 in Game 4 despite Doncic and Irving combining to go 1-of-14 from 3-point range.  Those two are due some positive shooting regression.  But the role players came to life finally and now many of those guys will have a lot of confidence going into Game 5 tonight.

Boston is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games when revenging a road loss.  Dallas is 34-17 ATS in road games this season.  The toughest game if the close out game, and Boston is really feeling the pressure now of trying to win a title.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 5 Monday.

15* Celtics/Mavericks ABC ANNIHILATOR on Boston ML -105

The Dallas Mavericks had their last-ditch effort to make this a series come up short.  They nearly erased a 21-point deficit to the Celtics in Game 3 getting it down to 1 point.  But Luka Doncic fouled out, and they couldn't close the deal as the Celtics made the big plays down the stretch to take a commanding 3-0 series lead.  I question Dallas' mental state coming into this one.

Doncic and Irving combined for 62 points in Game 3 and it still wasn't enough.  That's because the Mavericks are getting nothing from their role players in this series.  If they couldn't get it in Game 3, they aren't going to get it in Game 4 either.  There's just too much on Doncic and Irving's shoulders and they can't handle it.

Of course, the Celtics are showing why they are one of the best defensive teams in the league.  They are making life difficult on Irving and Doncic, and they are taking away the corner 3-pointers from PJ Washington and company that have been huge in the Mavericks getting this far.  They have held the Mavericks below 100 points in all three games in this series.

The Celtics are so close they can taste it, and they won't let this opportunity to sweep by by the wayside.  Bet the Celtics on the Money Line Friday.

20* Celtics/Mavs ABC No-Brainer on Dallas ML -121

After dropping the first two games of this series in Boston, this is a must-win game for the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 if they want to get back in this series.  I think they will play much better when they return home for Game 3 tonight, while the Celtics may relax a little with a commanding 2-0 lead.

Luka Doncic showed up in Boston but hasn't gotten any help.  All players for the Mavericks other than Doncic are 5-of-32 (15.6%) combined from 3-point range in this series.  Role players always play much better at home in the friendly confines, and I expect that to be the case for the Mavericks in Game 3.

Kyrie Irving was basically a no-show in the first two games in Boston.  He will have his best game of the series by far in Game 3 where he will be much more comfortable.  It has been hostile for Irving in Boston since stomping on the logo and he hasn't handled it well.  But he will handle playing in front of supporting fans much better in Dallas.

Kristaps Porzingis looked to reaggravate his calf injury in Game 2 and was noticeably limping.  Not having him at 100% the rest of the way would be a big blow to the Celtics as he has been a weapon the Mavericks haven't had an answer for.  I also don't expect Boston to get so many easy looks at the rim like they have in the first two games.  This Dallas defense has been the reason they have made it this far, and it will show up in a big way in Game 3.  Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line Wednesday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Mavericks +7.5

The Dallas Mavericks failed to show up in Game 1.  They shot 41.7% from the field, 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range and 12-of-19 (63.2%) from the FT line.  Nothing went right for them offensively.  I think with two days off in between games to adjust, we get a much better effort from the Mavericks in Game 2 in Boston.

The Celtics shot 47.6% from the field and 16-of-42 (38.1%) from 3 and really put Game 1 away early thanks to a hot start from Kristaps Porzingis.  Things came very easily for the Celtics in Game 1, but they won't come nearly as easy in Game 2.  And we've seen the Celtics upset in a pair of Game 2's thus far in these playoffs losing to the Heat outright by 10 as 14-point favorites and to the Cavaliers outright by 24 as 13-point favorites.  They tend to relax after taking Game 1. 

Dallas is 34-17 ATS in road games this season. The Mavericks are 12-4 ATS in road games against Eastern Conference opponents this season. Dallas is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games after scoring 100 points or less. Bet the Mavericks in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Mavericks/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks have been through the gauntlet beating the Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves to get here while being the road team in all three series.  They have been a different team since trading for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford as they have become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.

Indeed, the Mavericks are 28-9 SU & 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games overall.  I like the fact that they got some rest but not too much rest to the point that they would be rusty by dispatching of the Timberwolves in five games.  I worry about the rust factor for the Celtics, who have been off for the last nine days since sweeping the Pacers.

The Celtics were very fortunate to get an easy route to the playoffs due to injuries to opposing teams.  Jimmy Butler was out for the Heat along with a couple others.  Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen were out for the Cavaliers.  And Tyrese Haliburton got hurt in Game 2 and didn't play in Games 3 and 4.  Plus, the Pacers arguably should have been up 3-1 as they blew late leads in three of the games in losses by 3, 3 and 5 points.

This big step up in class for the Celtics will come as a shock to the system.  The Mavericks will offer a lot more resistance than those three banged-up teams did.  The Celtics will get back Kristaps Porzingis for this series, but I imagine they will be cautious with him in Game 1.  The Mavericks should dominate the boards in this series as their bigs offer much more of a presence than Porzingis and Horford will for the Celtics.

Dallas is 9-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.  The Mavericks are 12-3 ATS in road games against Eastern Conference opponents this season.  Dallas is 34-16 ATS in all road games this season.  Bet the Mavericks in Game 1 Thursday.

20* Mavericks/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves were due some positive shooting regression and some positive regression in close games.  The Mavericks out shot them in the first three games of the series drastically and they were still all 50/50 games in the final three minutes.  Dallas won all of them.

Minnesota has life now after a 105-100 victory in Game 4 as they shot 52.7% while Dallas shot just 42%.  I love some of the adjustments they made by trailing Luka Doncic and not letting him have a bunch of step backs, which is his game.  They funneled him to the rim and he looked a lot more uncomfortable in Game 4.

I think the Timberwolves have a legitimate shot to come back and win this series, and I'm expecting a blowout victory in their favor in Game 5 at home.  Dereck Lively II is questionable to play tonight after sitting Game 4.  He is their best rebounder and rim defender, and the Timberwolves were able to get to the rim at will without him.  Even if he plays he won't be 100%.  Bet the Timberwolves Thursday.

20* Timberwolves/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +1.5

To say the Dallas Mavericks are due some negative shooting regression would be a massive understatement.  They shot 49.4% in Game 1, 48.8% in Game 2 and 55.9% in Game 3 including 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range.  I don't think Doncic and Irving can keep up this pace in Game 4 tonight.

To say the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression would also be an understatement.  They shot 42.7% from the field in Game 1, 41.2% in Game 2 and just 9-of-30 (30%) from 3-point range in Game 3.  And despite losing the shooting battle in all three games, the Timberwolves had a great chance to win all three in the final 3 minutes.

The Mavericks just lost Dereck Lively II to a neck injury in Game 3 and he is doubtful to play tonight.  The Timberwolves really attacked the rim when he wasn't on the court and will have plenty of success doing just that tonight.  Lively II along with Gafford are the reason the Mavericks have been so dominant on the interior defensively.  Losing their leading rebounder in Lively II is a sneaky injury that isn't being factored in enough with all of the dirty work he does for this team.

Minnesota is 11-2 ATS following three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  Dallas is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 home games off a home win.  The Timberwolves are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS on the road in these playoffs.  This series isn't over just yet.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers should be up 2-1 on the Boston Celtics in this series.  This is a much more evenly matched series than these lines have suggested, and they should not be catching 8.5 points in Game 4 tonight.

The Pacers' biggest strength is their depth, and with only one day of rest in between every game so far that works in their favor the longer this series goes.  The Celtics are still without Kristaps Porzingis and now Luke Kornet is out, giving them zero rim protection inside.

The Pacers took advantage in Game 3 and got to the rim at will, and they will get to the rim at will again in Game 4.  The Pacers only shot 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3 in Game 3 and still only lost by 3.  They are due some positive shooting regression in that department as well.

The Pacers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games with their lone loss coming in 3 points in Game 4.  They have a tremendous home-court advantage.  Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Monday.

20* Timberwolves/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves shot 42.7% while the Dallas Mavericks shot 49.4% in Game 1 with the Mavericks winning 108-105.  The Timberwolves shot 41.2% while the Mavericks shot 48.8% in Game 2 with Dallas winning 109-108.

As you can see, the two games were decided by a combined 4 points.  It's safe to say the Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression in this series, while it will be hard for the Mavericks to keep up this pace against the best defensive team in the league.  I think we get that positive regression in Game 3 for the Timberwolves.

Minnesota has actually played its best basketball on the road in these playoffs.  Indeed, the Timberwolves are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS on the road in the postseason.  They beat the Suns by 17 and 6, and they beat the Nuggets by 7, 26 and 8 points in their five road victories.

Minnesota has been a resilient team all season and will respond in Game 3 tonight.  The Timberwolves are 11-3 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* Celtics/Pacers ABC No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers may not have Tyrese Haliburton tonight.  But teams tend to rally in that first game without their star player, and I expect the Pacers to do just that tonight.  TJ McConnell is one of the best backup PG's in the NBA with not only his ability to run the offense, but also his ability to defend.  He has been a monster in these playoffs.

The Pacers are also one of the deepest teams in the NBA which is their biggest strength, so the loss of Haliburton won't hurt them as much as it would most teams.  And this Indiana team has been dynamite at home in these playoffs with one of the biggest home-court advantages in the NBA.

Indeed, the Pacers are a perfect 11-0 SU in their last 11 home games including 6-0 in these playoffs.  They will feed off their home crowd tonight.  I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the 'clunker' game for the Celtics, who have one in every series.  They could let up knowing they likely won't have to face Haliburton and with a 2-0 lead in this series.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Saturday.

25* NBA Western Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves were coming off their biggest win in franchise history by coming back from 20 points down in the 2H to beat the defending champion Denver Nuggets on the road in Game 7.  It was not a good spot for them in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks.

The Timberwolves looked flat and tired in Game 1.  I expect them to respond in a big way in Game 2 with a blowout victory.  Head coach Chris Finch will make the proper adjustments to slow down Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, who combined for 63 points in Game 1.

The Mavericks just don't have many players that can beat the Timberwolves outside Irving and Doncic.  So expect the Timberwolves to put more focus on these two and to have a lot more success defensively.  After all, they are the best defensive team in the NBA with their ability to protect the rim and their length on the perimeter.

Anthony Edwards in particular looked gassed in Game 1.  He will respond in a big way in Game 2.  The Mavericks don't have an answer for him defensively.  He will be in full on attack mode.  The Timberwolves are due some positive shooting regression after shooting just 42.7% in Game 1 including 61.1% from the FT line.  The Mavericks shot 49.4% as a team and are due some negative shooting regression.

Minnesota is 11-2 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games when revenging a loss as a home favorite.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 27-9 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Minnesota is a resilient bunch that will respond in a big way tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Friday.

20* Pacers/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +9

The Indiana Pacers committed 21 turnovers and made 15 fewer free throws than the Boston Celtics and still should have beaten them in Game 1.  This series is clearly a lot closer than the oddsmakers suggest.

The Celtics got fortunate to catch the Miami Heat without Jimmy Butler and and a few others and the Cleveland Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell and Jarett Allen and a few others.  They had an easy path to get here and are overvalued as a result.

The Celtics lost Game 2 outright at home to the Heat as 14.5-point favorites and Game 2 outright at home to the Cavaliers as 13-point favorites.  They tend to relax in these Game 2's at home, and have actually been better in the playoffs on the road than at home over the last couple seasons.  They don't have the kind of home-court advantage that these lines suggest.

The Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season right now and are healthy.  They won Game 6 116-103 at home over the Knicks and shot 53.8% as a team.  They won Game 7 130-109 as 2.5-point road dogs and shot 67.1% as a team.  They should have beaten the Celtics in their 133-128 Game 1 loss as 10-point dogs and shot 53.5% as a team.

The Pacers are an offensive juggernaut and have improved defensively in these playoffs.  They are also the deeper team, which makes it easier for them to handle this short turnaround than the Celtics.  Holiday played 48 minutes, Tatum 45, Brown 44, White 42 and Horford 40 in Game 1.  This is where not having Kristaps Porzingis really hurts them, especially with the Pacers attacking both Horford and Kornet with a ton of success.

I like how both Rick Carlisle and Tyrese Haliburton took responsibility for the Game 1 loss.  That will endear them to the rest of the players on this team, and I expect them to fire back with another big effort in Game 2 to try and even this series.  Each of the last three meetings between the Celtics and Pacers were decided by 5 points or fewer this season.  Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Thursday.