20* Bradley/Drake MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 140

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Drake and Bradley, who met in the MVC Tournament Championship Game last year.  Drake won that game 77-51 for just 128 combined points.  They also combined for 134 points four meetings ago, and 141 and 140 points in their first two regular season meetings this season.  These teams met in the regular season finale so familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  They combined to shoot 32-of-33 from the FT line yet still only combined for 140 points.  The 3rd and final meeting here will stay UNDER 140.

Bradley has really stepped up its defense down the stretch allowing 59.0 points per game and 35.3% shooting in its last five games.  Drake showed what it is capable of defensively when focused in its last two games holding Bradley to 66 and Evansville to 58 points. Drake is 6-0 UNDER in its last six March games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Kansas/Houston ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +8.5

The Kansas Jayhawks are a real contender with a healthy Kevin McCullar Jr. (19.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.3 APG).  He does a little bit of everything for this team.  He has returned from injury in their last two games and shown very little signs of injury, scoring 20 points against Baylor and 19 against Kansas State.

Houston has already clinched the Big 12 title and thus I think this may be a letdown spot for them.  Kansas is used to winning the Big 12, and they can at least get some solace in sweeping the season series after crushing Houston 78-65 at home in their first meeting this season.  Nobody has played Houston better than Kansas did this season.

The Cougars are not only vulnerable after clinching the Big 12, but they are also a very banged up team right now and lacking depth.  They have lost key role players in Joseph Tugler, Ramon Walker Jr. and Terrance Arceneaux to season-ending injuries.  That puts a lot of pressure on their starters to play big minutes and fatigue will be a factor for them moving forward.  This is a big number for the Cougars to be laying against a team that caliber of the Jayhawks.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -3

The Miami Hurricanes have flat out quit.  They made the Final 4 last season and brought back all but two or three key players from that team and were expected to make another run this season.  But they sit at just 15-15 this season and their only hope of getting back to the big dance is winning the ACC Tournament.  They have just been going through the motions waiting for it to get here.

Indeed, Miami is 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with all eight losses by 4 points or more.  The Hurricanes are coming off a 67-57 home loss to Boston College which was their 5th loss by double-digits during this 8-game skid.  I don't see them showing up at all for the regular season finale against Florida State, either.

The Seminoles have been solid at home this season and have won their last two home games 90-83 over NC State and 84-76 over Boston College.  They have not quit and would love nothing more than to sweep their rivals in the Hurricanes after beating them 84-75 on the road in their first meeting this season.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Kentucky/Tennessee OVER 166

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 12th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 22-8 OVER in all games this season, including 4-0 in their last four with 170 or more combined points in all four.

Tennessee ranks 73rd in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted offense.  The Volunteers have their best offensive team of the Rick Barnes era and they are playing much faster this season as a result.  That was on display in their 103-92 win at Kentucky on February 3rd in their first meeting this season for 195 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch.

The Wildcats are 18-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough this season and they have failed to do so again today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Tennessee CBS No-Brainer on Kentucky +8.5

The Tennessee Vols just won 66-59 at South Carolina to clinch the outright SEC title.  They already beat Kentucky 103-92 on the road in their first meeting this season as well.  I think this is the ultimate flat spot for the Volunteers as a result.

Kentucky wants revenge from that defeat, plus they have a lot to play for with a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament at stake.  The Wildcats have played much better since that defeat back on February 3rd.  They have gone 7-2 SU since with the two losses coming by a combined 5 points.  They upset Auburn 70-59 as 8.5-point road dogs and they have what it takes to take down Tennessee, too.

Kentucky is 7-1 ATS in road games off two consecutive games as a favorite this season.  You rarely get the opportunity to back the Wildcats as this big of underdogs, and we'll take advantage today.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* Northern Iowa/Indiana State MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 147.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last 20 years hitting around 65%.  That includes 7-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 8-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Each of the last two meetings between Indiana State and Northern Iowa went UNDER the total in the regular season.  Indiana State won 80-62 on the road for 142 combined points in their final meeting last season, and the Sycamores won 77-66 for 143 combined points in their lone meeting this season.

Northern Iowa has been playing elite defense here down the stretch holding eight of their last 10 opponents to 71 points or fewer.  They held a high-octane Belmont offense to just 62 points yesterday in their 67-62 win that saw 129 combined points.  Indiana State is better defensively than it gets credit for.  The Sycamores have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 74 points or fewer.  They held Missouri State to 59 points yesterday in a 75-59 win that saw just 134 combined points.

Northern Iowa is 6-0 UNDER off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Panthers are 24-10 UNDER in their last 34 conference tournament games.  The Sycamores are 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Creighton/Villanova FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137.5

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Wildcats rank 348th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 6-0 in their last six games overall with 134 or fewer combined points in all six games.

Creighton is more of an UNDER team than most realize.  They also play slow ranking just 230th in pace and are better defensively than they get credit for, ranking 24th in adjusted defense.

Villanova beat Creighton 68-66 (OT) in their first meeting this season in a game that was tied 58-58 at the end of regulation for just 116 combined points.  The UNDER is now 4-2 in the last six meetings with 127 or fewer points at the end of regulation four times.  They have gone for 138 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 12 meetings as well.

Creighton is 8-2 UNDER in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Bluejays are 8-1 UNDER in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Villanova is 10-1 UNDER vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Mississippi State -4

I love the spot for the Mississippi State Bulldogs this afternoon.  They have played their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by losing three consecutive games against an absolutely brutal schedule.  They lost by 2 at home to Kentucky and lost on the road to both Auburn and Texas A&M.

Now the Bulldogs return home on Senior Day and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 68-62 road loss at South Carolina in their first meeting this season.  I think they catch the Gamecocks at the perfect time.

South Carolina just lost to Tennessee 66-59 at home on Wednesday in a game that was for 1st place in the SEC.  The Volunteers won and won the outright SEC title as a result.  I think the Gamecocks are in a massive letdown and hangover spot from that defeat, and we will see one of their worst efforts of the season because of it.

Mississippi State is 14-3 SU in its last 17 home meetings with South Carolina.  The Bulldogs are 6-2 SU at home in SEC play with wins over both Tennessee and Auburn, which are the top two teams in the conference.  Their two losses came to Kentucky and Alabama by a combined 10 points.  

Mississippi State is 80-37 ATS in its last 117 games after losing three of its last four games.  The Bulldogs are 148-113 ATS in their last 261 games revenging a loss.  Mississippi State is 41-21 ATS in its last 62 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Bulldogs.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Villanova ML +105

Villanova has played its way onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament with its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Wildcats have gone 6-3 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their three losses all coming on the road to UConn, Seton Hall and Xavier.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home during this stretch with four blowout wins over Providence by 18, Seton Hall by 26, Butler by 10 and Georgetown by 28.

The Wildcats could punch their ticket with a 2nd win over Creighton this season and will be max motivated to do so.  They beat Creighton 68-66 on the road in their first meeting this season.  They are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home meetings with the Bluejays and have really had their number.

Creighton is just 3-3 SU in its last six Big East road games with two narrow wins over Xavier and Seton Hall as well as a blowout win over reeling Butler.  They lost by 14 at UConn, lost by 4 at Providence and lost by 14 at St. John's in their most recent road game.  They are clearly vulnerable away from home.   The Bluejays don't have much to play for either as they are locked into the 2nd or 3rd seed in the Big East Tournament.

Villanova is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 130 to 139.5 this season.  The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season.  Villanova is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Villanova on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Oklahoma/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 144.5

Oklahoma is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Sooners rank 223rd in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted defense.  The Sooners are without John Hugley IV (8.4 PPG, 54.8% FG's) and could be without Javian McCollum (13.6 PPG), who missed their last game with a shoulder injury and is questionable.

Texas also plays slower than average ranking 209th in adjusted tempo and 47th in adjusted defense.  Leading scorer Dylan Disu (16.1 PPG, 51.4% 3-pointers) was forced from their last game early with a knee injury and is questionable to go Saturday as well.

But the biggest reason for this UNDER play is the head-to-head history between hated rivals Oklahoma and Texas.  The Sooners and Longhorns have combined for 139 or fewer points at the end of regulation five of their last six meetings and 146 in the one that didn't.  This has been an UNDER series.

Oklahoma is 7-1 UNDER in its last eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of its games.  The Sooners are 20-8 UNDER in their last 28 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more.  Rodney Terry is 9-1 UNDER after allowing 90 points or more as a head coach.  Terry is 10-1 UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or more as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Memphis/FAU CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +7

Memphis (22-8) has played its way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by playing some clutch basketball here down the stretch.  The Tigers are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Charlotte by 24 at home as 6-point favorites, upsetting FAU 78-74 as 1.5-point home dogs, crushing ECU by 24 as 4.5-point road favorites and crushing UAB by 19 as 7-point home favorites.

Now the Tigers get a chance to beat FAU for a 2nd time this season which would almost surely get them in the Big Dance.  I know we will get their best effort, and fading Florida Atlantic has been a very profitable endeavor for myself and premium clients in AAC play this season.

FAU has been grossly overvalued in conference play after making the Final 4 last year and beating Arizona in the non-conference.  The Owls are just 5-12 ATS in conference play this season and have been very fortunate in close games.  In fact, they have seven wins by 10 points or less in conference play despite this conference being way down.

Memphis is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog.  The Tigers are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points, including 8-1 ATS in this role under current head coach Penny Hardaway.  Bet Memphis Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Arkansas/Alabama OVER 173.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games, including 95 or more in seven of those.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in six of their last eight games.  The OVER is 8-1 in Alabama's last nine games overall with 166 or more combined points in eight of those nine games, including 175 or more in seven of those.

Arkansas likes to run as well ranking 34th in adjusted tempo, so this game is going to be played at a rapid pace.  The Razorbacks have scored at least 82 points in four consecutive games.  They have also allowed 83 or more in three striaght, which is really bad when you consider LSU and Vanderbilt were two of those teams.

Arkansas is 12-1 OVER following a win this season.  The Razorbacks are 10-1 OVER after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +15

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been fighting hard for head coach Eric Musselman here down the stretch.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 4 as 11-point dogs at Mississippi State, upset Texas A&M 78-71 as 11.5-point road dogs and took Kentucky to the wire in a 9-point loss at 13-point dogs in their last three road games.

Now the Razorbacks are catching too many points today against a reeling, overrated Alabama team that doesn't play defense.  The Crimson Tide are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Florida at home and needed to overcome a double-digit 2H deficit to beat Ole Miss.  They lost by 22 at Kentucky, by 7 at home to Tennessee and by 18 at Florida.  They have allowed 81 or more points in all five games and seven of their last eight games overall.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive games where they had five or fewer steals.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Boise State/San Diego State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 137.5

San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Aztecs rank 248th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted defense.  Boise State also likes to play slow ranking 221st in adjusted tempo and 33rd in adjusted defense.  That's why it is no surprise that a defensive battle is usually the result when these two teams get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings and would be 8-0 in the last eight if not for OT.  Boise State and San Diego State have combined for 134 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 116.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those eight meetings, so we have about 21 points to spare here with this 137.5-point total.  

San Diego State is 9-0 UNDER In its last nine March games.  The Aztecs are 12-1 UNDER in their last 13 games following three or more consecutive unders.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -10.5

Head coach Brian Wardle always has his Bradley Braves (21-10) playing their best basketball in the MVC Tournament.  The Braves will be ready for another run in 2024, and it starts today against lowly Illinois-Chicago (12-20).

Bradley has a rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals while Illinois-Chicago needed 2 OT to beat Southern Illinois 84-82 last night.  It's safe to say the Flames will be running on fumes tonight.  Three starters played at least 46 minutes for the Flames last night and they have just a 7-man rotation with zero depth  They won't have anything left in the tank for Bradley.

Bradley beat Illinois-Chicago 77-59 on the road and 85-73 at home.  So they have already covered this 10.5-point spread in both meetings this season, and that domination should continue in the 3rd and final meeting given their rest advantage.  Bet Bradley Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -1

Injuries have really hurt the New York Knicks here down the stretch.  The Knicks are 4-9 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a result with their four wins coming against the Pistons by 2, the Grizzlies, the short-handed 76ers and the short-handed Cavs.  They are coming off a 16-point home loss to the short-handed Hawks.

The Knicks have been without Julius Randle (24.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG) and OG Anunoby (15.6 PPG) during this entire stretch.  Jalen Brunson (27.2 PPG, 6.6 APG) has played in most of these games and he just cannot do it on his own.  But now Brunson is battling injury due to such a heavy workload.  He missed their last two games and is questionable to play tonight.

The Orlando Magic have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA this season.  The Magic are 37-26 SU & 40-21-2 ATS this season.  They are really rolling right now going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 8 points or more and by an average of 15.8 points per game.  They are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.

Orlando is 19-5 ATS as a favorite this season.  New York is 12-21 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Magic should be bigger favorites given the circumstances tonight, but the Knicks continue to get respect when they shouldn't be.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season going 16-6 SU & 14-8 ATS in their last 22 road games.  They are fully healthy right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They beat Indiana by 27 at home and Toronto by 41 on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans couldn't be any fresher right now as not only did they have the All-Star Break, but they will now be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days tonight.  I expect them to make easy work of the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers in this one.

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-19 without him this season.  But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player as well in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG).  Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well.

It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games overall and 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games.  They just lost by 6 at home to the Grizzlies as 5.5-point favorites in their last game.  It won't get any easier tonight against the Pelicans.

New Orleans is a perfect 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games while consistently being overvalued at home.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Evansville/Drake UNDER 150.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last decade hitting around 65%.  That includes 3-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 4-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Evansville beat Illinois State 59-53 for just 112 combined points yesterday.  This opening total of 150.5 against Drake has been set way too high today.  Evansville is terrible offensively ranking 232nd in adjusted offense while averaging just 61.3 points per game in its last four game.  Drake ranks 85th in adjusted defense and will hold the Purple Aces in check.

Drake beat Evansville 97-48 for 145 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Drake won 78-75 in the 2nd meeting but both teams shot lights out, which is unlikely to happen again.  Drake shot 13-of-27 (48.1%) from 3 while Evansville shot 50% from the field and 8-of-18 (44.4%) from 3.  Yet that game still only saw 153 combined points.  This game likely won't be as close with Drake winning in a blowout, which should mean no FT's at the end in the foul game.

Evansville is a perfect 11-0 UNDER after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Purple Aces are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Belmont/Northern Iowa UNDER 153.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last decade hitting around 65%.  That includes 3-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 4-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Northern Iowa ranks 239th in adjusted tempo and likes to slow it down.  The Panthers will have to try to slow it down to a snail's pace to counteract Belmont.  I don't know that it will work as Belmont is pretty efficient offensively, but it gives them their best chance to win.

Belmont has really picked it up defensively here down the stretch which has been the key to their 8-1 run.  They have held six of their last nine opponents to 68 points or fewer and I think they can do the same against Northern Iowa, which struggles offensively.  The Panthers have held 12 of their last 16 opponents to 72 points or fewer.  I'd be surprised if either team got to 80 points in this one, which is what it will take for us to lose this UNDER.

Belmont is 13-1 UNDER after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  Belmont doesn't get to the FT line often averaging just 18 attempts per game.  But they don't foul either giving up 16 attempts per game.  Northern Iowa is also great at playing defensive without fouling allowing 17 attempts per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* MVC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Belmont +1.5

Belmont is playing better than anyone in the MVC since they got fully healthy.  I bet the Bruins +2100 to win the MVC Tournament and you can still find +1900 out there heading into this game.  You'll likely see me back this team in every game until they lose because they are grossly undervalued.

Belmont is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone loss coming on the road to Drake, which didn't lose a single home game this season.  Seven of the eight wins came by 15 points or more so these games haven't even been close.  That includes their 86-61 win over Valparaiso in the opener of the MVC Tournament.  They led by 26 at halftime and were able to get their starters rest in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game.

While most MVC teams have struggled shooting at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis over the years including to open this tournament, Belmont has not.  The Bruins shot 52.4% as a team and made 10 3-pointers yesterday.  This is one of the best shooting teams in the country since they got healthy, shooting 47.4% or better in seven of their last eight games, including 50% or better in five of them.

Northern Iowa can't match Belmont in the shooting department and has slipped defensively this season.  Belmont shot 52.6% in a 90-70 win at Northern Iowa in their first meeting this season.  The Bruins shot a solid 47.5% and 40% from 3 in a home loss to the Panthers in the rematch, but they weren't fully healthy for that game.  Ja'Kobi Gillespie (17.5 PPG, 57% FG)  scored 18 points in that first meeting which was a win, and he didn't play in the game that they lost to UNI.  Having him healthy has made all the difference for this team.  Bet Belmont Friday.

15* ASU/USC FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 144

USC has been an OVER team when they've been healthy.  Well, the Trojans are fully healthy right now and having no problem scoring.  They have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 147 or more combined points in five of those seven games, including 157 or more in four of those.

Arizona State is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall and has allowed 77 or more points in eight of its last 11 games, including 80 or more seven times.  Both teams like to play with pace as ASU ranks 79th in adjusted tempo while USC ranks 123rd.

Arizona State beat USC 82-67 earlier this season for 149 combined points.  Neight team shot well in that game as ASU shot 42.9% overall and 30.8% from 3, while USC shot 46.6% overall but just 4-of-14 (26.7%) from 3.  USC was without its top two scorers in Isaiah Collier (17.0 PPG) and Boogie Ellis (16.6 PPG) in that contest as well.  Both are healthy now and thriving.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 146 or more combined points in three of the four.  USC is 12-2 OVER vs. teams that average 21 or more 3-point attempts per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Cal/Stanford ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 154.5

Analysis will be posted shortly.

20* Celtics/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Nuggets are 14-4-1 UNDER in their last 19 games overall.  That push came against the Suns last game with a total of 224 that went to OT and was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for 204 combined points.

What makes the Nuggets such an UNDER team is that they rank 27th in the NBA in pace and like to really slow it down.  They also rank 9th in defensive rating.  They face a Boston Celtics team that ranks 2nd in defensive rating tonight, so these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.

That played out in their first meeting this season as the Nuggets beat the Celtics 102-100 for just 202 combined points.  The Nuggets even shot 51.9% from the field in that game as it was played at a snail's pace.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight with the defensive intensity being very high for this potential NBA Finals preview.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last five games overall.  Denver is 11-2 UNDER in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Bucks/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 227.5

Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach.  The Bucks are 14-1-1 UNDER in their last 16 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in 10 consecutive games.

The Bucks rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well.  The Bucks could be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again tonight after he missed the last game with an Achilles injury and looked seriously injured in warmups.  But they have been a dead nuts UNDER team with or without Giannis.

The UNDER is 12-2 in Warriors last 14 games overall.  They have been a dead nuts UNDER team since getting their most important defender in Draymond Green back from injury.  They have gone UNDER the total in seven consecutive games now.

Golden State is 14-2 UNDER after winning three of its last four games this season.  Milwaukee is 8-0 UNDER in non-conference road games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt/Kentucky OVER 160.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 21-8 OVER in all games this season, including 14-3 OVER in its 17 home games where it is scoring 94.2 points per game on 53.5% shooting while also allowing 79.1 points per game at home.

Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 109-77 for 186 combined points in the first meeting this season on February 6th.  So we have 25.5 points to spare with this 160.5-point total in the rematch.  It should be another shootout, and Vanderbilt scored 77 points despite shooting just 35.5% from the field in that first meeting.  I have to expect they'll shoot a little better in the rematch.

The Wildcats are 17-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  Kentucky is 8-0 OVER in SEC home games this season.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough this season and they have failed to do so again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks ML -121

This play is more of a fade of the Cleveland Cavaliers than anything.  Cleveland is in a massive letdown spot after coming back from 22 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Boston Celtics 105-104 last night.  Now the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

Not to mention, Cleveland is already short-handed without two of its best players in Donovan Mitchell (28.0 PPG) and Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG), plus Max Strus (12.2 PPG) is questionable after sitting out last night.  That's three of their top six scorers.  The Cavaliers will have nothing left in the tank for tonight.

Atlanta has a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Nets for the final play-in spot in the East.  The Hawks have shown some fight going 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games with blowout wins over Orlando by 17, Utah by 27 and New York by 16.  The Hawks will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but that factor is lessened by the fact that they had two days off prior to beating the Knicks 116-100 last night.  They are much healthier and much deeper than the Cavaliers right now as well.

Plays on home favorites (Atlanta) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a winning team are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Atlanta is favored for good reason tonight.  Bet the Hawks on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Wizards OVER 223.5

The Orlando Magic have gone under the total in six consecutive games.  Because of this, we now have the opportunity to 'buy low' on an OVER in a game involving the Magic.  Now they face a dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Wizards and Magic with 225 or more combined points in all six.  The OVER is 3-0 in three meetings this season with 246, 255 and 259 combined points.  Those three totals were all set at 235.5 points or higher, and now this total is 12 points lower than that at 223.5.  That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College/Miami OVER 151.5

Both Boston College (15-14) and Miami (15-14) have nothing to play for at this point.  Both are playing like it defensively giving up massive point totals here down the stretch.  Don't expect either to get after it defensively tonight, either.

Miami has allowed 75 or more points in six consecutive games and has lost seven in a row overall.  Boston College has allowed 77 or more points in six of its last seven games and the OVER is 6-0 in its last six games overall.  I expect both teams to get 75-plus points tonight.

Boston College beat Miami 85-77 for 162 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 17th.  It should be more of the same in the rematch with yet another shootout.

Miami is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 home games after going under the total in its previous game.  Boston College is 8-1 OVER in its last nine March games.  The Eagles are 7-1 OVER off three or more consecutive overs this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Nevada/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 143.5

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off tonight when Boise State hosts Nevada.  Boise State ranks 231st in adjusted tempo and 31st in adjusted defense.  Nevada ranks 243rd in adjusted tempo and 38th in adjusted defense.  Both teams prefer to slow it down and rely on defense.

That has played out in this head-to-head series as well.  Boise State beat Nevada 64-56 for just 120 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 12th with a 140-point total.  The books have no business raising this total to 143.5 tonight.  That's especially the case when you consider Boise State and Nevada have combined for 140 or fewer points in four of their last five meetings.

Nevada may still be without Kenan Blackshear (15.2 PPG, 49.7% FG's), who has missed the last two games and is questionable to play tonight.  Nevada is 12-5 UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.  Boise State is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 home games off a home win where they scored 85 points or more.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest -13.5

I love the spot for Wake Forest tonight.  The Demon Deacons are squarely on the bubble now after losing consecutive road games at Notre Dame and at Virginia Tech following up their upset home win over Duke.  They already beat Georgia Tech 80-51 on the road, and they cannot afford to take the Yellow Jackets lightly now.

Wake Forest is back home now where they are 15-0 SU & 12-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 19.0 points per game.  Few of these games have even been close, and I like their chances of winning this game by 14 points or more to get us the cover given what's at stake.

Wake Forest is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season and winning by 20.0 points per game in this spot.  Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams that make 77% or better and losing by 26.1 points per game in this spot.  Bet Wake Forest Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh -7.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers (19-10, 10-8 ACC) are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament right now.  This despite going 9-3 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with upset road wins over Duke, NC State and Virginia.  They are coming off a 25-point win at Boston College as well.

We'll get a fully focused effort from the Panthers tonight knowing they are on the bubble.  They should make easy work ofa. bad Florida State team that is just 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are coming off an 85-76 road loss to a very bad Georgia Tech team.  They have lost four of their last five ACC road games all by 8 points or more.

Pittsburgh is 14-4 ATS as a favorite this season.  Florida State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Seminoles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's -17

St. John's has played its way back on the bubble by winning three consecutive games.  The last two were very impressive as the Red Storm upset Creighton 80-66 as 3-point home dogs and crushed fellow bubble team Butler 82-59 on the road.  Now the Red Storm have had the last five days off to rest and get ready for DePaul.

St. John's crushed DePaul 85-57 at home as 22-point favorites in their first meeting on February 6th.  Now they come back as only 17-point favorites in the rematch which is quite the discount.  I have a motivated favorite here trying to make the NCAA Tournament, so the Red Storm will not take their foot off the gas.

Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late.  The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over.  They are 0-18 SU & 6-12 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.7 points per game.  They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall eight of those losses by double-digits and seven by 19 points or more.

DePaul is 1-7 ATS as a home underdog of 10 points or more this season.  St. John's is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Blue Demons are 1-11 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  Bet St. John's Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Heat UNDER 217.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Heat are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They rank 28th in pace, 8th in defensive rating and 21st in offensive rating this season.  They are missing key scorers in Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Kevin Love right now as well to make them even more of an UNDER team.

The Detroit Pistons have become a dead nuts UNDER team since the trade deadline and losing their best shooter in Bogdanovic to the Knicks.  The Pistons are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall.  They have gone for 200, 210 and 214 combined points in their last three games.  They are struggling to find offense outside Cunningham and Ivey, and they are built for defense right now starting Duren, Thompson and Stewart inside.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Detroit and Miami with 212 or fewer combined points in four of those five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida -7.5

South Florida is one of the most underrated teams in the entire country.  The Bulls have gone 22-5 SU & 18-7-2 ATS this season including 14-2 SU & 12-3-1 ATS at home.  Yet, many feel they are out of the NCAA Tournament if they don't win the conference tournament.  Money keeps pouring in against this team every game, and they just keep getting the money playing with a chip on their shoulder.

The Bulls have gone 20-1 SU & 16-3-2 ATS in their last 21 games overall with 14 consecutive victories.  Now they face a Tulane team that is ready for this season to be over.  The Green Wave are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  

They lost by 12 at Memphis, by 8 at home to SMU, by 14 at East Carolina, by 11 at home to UAB and by 4 at home to North Texas.  They did show some life last game only because they are facing Florida Atlantic, which made the Final 4 last year.  I don't think they will show any life tonight after coming up just short against FAU with a late comeback.  Bet South Florida Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Notre Dame +15.5

Notre Dame is one of the most improved teams in the country in the 2nd half of the season under first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry.  The Fighting Irish are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with upset wins over Clemson, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.  Their lone loss came by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse.

Now the Fighting Irish are ready to give North Carolina a run for its money.  The Tar Heels are in a big sandwich spot here coming off a 79-70 home win over NC State, plus with another big rivalry game on deck against Duke that will decide the ACC regular season champion.  The Tar Heels lead the Blue Devils by one game so they can afford to lose this game knowing that they can still win that game against Duke to win the title.

North Carolina is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more.  Notre Dame is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a road underdog or PK.  The Fighting Irish are a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Notre Dame Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Alabama/Florida OVER 175.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 13th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in nine of their last 10 games, including 95 or more in seven of those ten.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in five of their last seven games.  The OVER is 7-1 in Alabama's last eight games overall with 166 or more combined points in seven of those eight games, including 175 or more in six of those.

Alabama is coming off an under which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  But Alabama shot just 38.3% and Tennessee shot 36.4% yet they still combined for 155 points.  I also think this total is lower because Alabama and Florida played on February 21st and both shot terribly in a game that saw 170 combined points at the end of regulation before going to OT.  Alabama shot 44% and 8-of-32 (25%) from 3 while Florida shot 43.2% and 9-of-30 (30%) from 3.  I have to think both teams will shoot better in the rematch.

Florida has a similar profile to Alabama liking to play fast ranking 33rd in adjusted tempo while also being one of the best offensive teams in the country ranking 15th in adjusted offense.  The OVER is 4-1 in Gators last five games overall.  Alabama is 6-0 OVER in road games off an ATS loss this season.  Florida is 7-0 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Illinois OVER 163.5

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini rank 57th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense this season.  Brad Underwood has by far his best offensive team in his time at Illinois, but it's also his worst defensive team.  The Fighting Illini look to run every chance they get and nobody has been able to stop them.

Illinois is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games overall with 162 or more combined points in all nine games.  The OVER is 13-1 in their 14 games overall as well.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough probably because of the perception of the Big Ten, and we're getting another good value on the OVER 163.5 points today.

Now Illinois faces Purdue, which also doesn't mind playing fast and does it efficiently ranking 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency.  Purdue beat Illinois 83-78 in their first meeting this season for 161 combined points.  This despite Illinois not having its best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. (22.0 PPG).  He makes all the difference for the Fighting Illini and he has scored at least 23 points in six of his last seven games overall.  Illinois has looked to run a lot more with Shannon Jr., who leads the country in fast break points.

These are two of the top seven OVER teams in the entire country as Illinois is 21-8 OVER in all games this season while Purdue is 20-9 OVER in all games.  Illinois is 18-2 OVER vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -1.5

Purdue already clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title with an 80-74 home win as 10-point favorites over Michigan State on Saturday.  They rained down confetti and celebrated the feat at home.  Now they are in a massive letdown spot here on the road at Illinois, especially knowing they have a home game against Wisconsin still on deck to win the title outright if need be.

Illinois doesn't have the same luxury.  The Fighting Illini can pull within one game of Purdue for first place in the Big Ten with a win here tonight.  They want revenge from an 83-78 road loss at Purdue on January 5th in their first meeting this season.  But they didn't have their best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. (22.0 PPG) for that game due to suspension.  He makes all the difference for this team, and he has scored at least 23 points in six of his last seven games overall.  Illinois hasn't lost at home in Big Ten play with Shannon Jr. in the lineup.

The Boilermakers are kind of just going through the motions right now knowing they have a #1 seed pretty much locked up in the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They went to the wire at home with Minnesota and Michigan State, and also lost outright at Ohio State and went to the wire with Michigan on the road.  This is a big step up in class for the Boilermakers compared to what they have been facing here of late.  The spot really favors the Fighting Illini.  Bet Illinois Tuesday.

20* Alabama/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida +1

The Florida Gators want revenge from a 98-93 (OT) loss at Alabama on February 21st just two weeks ago.  They led that game by double-digits in the final 10 minutes but blew the lead and lost in OT.  But now Florida is back home where they are 13-1 SU this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the SEC.

Alabama is coming off a crushing 81-74 home loss to Tennessee in a game that likely decided the SEC regular season championship.  I don't think the Crimson Tide will be able to get back up off the mat after that defeat.  Plus, Alabama hasn't been able to beat good teams on the road this season.  The Crimson Tide lost by 20 at Tennessee, by 18 at Auburn and by 22 at Kentucky.  Bet Florida Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Bucks NBA TV No-Brainer on UNDER 226.5

Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach.  The Bucks are 13-1-1 UNDER in their last 15 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in nine consecutive games.

The Bucks rank 5th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well.  They face a Clippers team that ranks 21st in pace and 12th in defensive rating.  It's a Clippers team without Russell Westbrook right now.

The Clippers are coming off a 89-88 road win at Minnesota last night that saw just 177 combined points.  They will now be a tired team and could elect to rest some guys.  They won't be looking to push the tempo at all playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Clippers and Bucks have combined for 225 and 211 points in their last two meetings, which both went UNDER the total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Thunder/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -5.5

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They are coming off an upset road loss at San Antonio in one of their worst performances of the season.  They had gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their previous ix games with all six wins coming by 13 points or more.  They simply had a letdown and may have been looking ahead to this game against Phoenix.

Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest.  The Suns are a tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-109 loss to the Rockets on Saturday.  They lost Devin Booker to injury in that defeat and I have to think he is out for this one as well.  Plus, Jusuf Nurkic, Royce O'Neale and Eric Gordon are all questionable.  Kevin Durant is tired and Bradley Beal is not playing full minutes yet.  The Suns are a mess right now.

Oklahoma City is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 130 points or more.  Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after three or more consecutive unders.  The Suns are 0-8 ATS in home games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Stanford/Colorado FS1 No-Brainer on Colorado -12

The Colorado Buffaloes have come up clutch here down the stretch while squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have won three consecutive games including blowout home wins over Utah by 24 and California by 10 in their last two games.  They improved to 15-1 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

Now the Buffaloes are playing their final home game this season meaning it is Senior Night.  They will be max motivated, and I expect them to win with plenty of room to spare against a Stanford Cardinal team that looks to have quit on head coach Jerod Haase.

Indeed, the Cardinal are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 20 at Washington, by 13 at Washington State, by 13 at home to Oregon, by 12 at home to Oregon State and by 22 at Utah.  They haven't even been competitive in these games, and now this will be their toughest game during this stretch tonight at Colorado.

Stanford is 1-8 ATS  in its last nine games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet Colorado Sunday.

20* Knicks/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Knicks and Cavaliers with 201 or fewer combined points in all seven meetings.  Both teams have some key injuries right now that are hampering them offensively as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska -8.5

Nebraska is a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in Big Ten home games this season.  Now the Huskers will be highly motivated to keep that perfect conference home record intact on Senior Night Sunday.  I expect them to blow out Rutgers similar to their last three home games where they beat Minnesota by 18, Penn State by 19 and Michigan by 20.  Rutgers is on those three teams' level.

Rutgers is 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season.  They lost by 28 at Purdue and by 11 at Minnesota in their last two conference road games.  The Scarlet Knights don't have much to play for right now as they are headed to the NIT at best if they don't win the Big Ten Tournament.

Nebraska is also extra motivated for revenge from a 87-82 (OT) loss at Rutgers.  This one screams double-digit blowout in the Huskers' favor tonight.  Bet Nebraska Sunday.

15* Warriors/Celtics ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 230.5

The UNDER is 11-2 in Warriors last 13 games overall.  They have been a dead nuts UNDER team since getting their most important defender in Draymond Green back from injury.  Now Stephen Curry and Brandon Podziemski are questionable to play today, and Andrew Wiggins is out, so points could be very hard to come by for the Warriors.

The Celtics rank 3rd in defensive rating and may be without Kristaps Porzingis today.  Boston isn't looking to push the pace either ranking 19th in pace.

Golden State is 13-2 UNDER after winning three of its last four games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -4

Drake (24-6) still has an outside shot of winning the MVC trailing Indiana State by one game.  The Bulldogs also believe they are still alive for an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.  They have a lot to play for right now and are playing like it.

Drake has one of the best home-court advantages in the MVC going a perfect 15-0 SU at home this season and will be highly motivated to protect that perfect home mark on Senior Night today.  They already beat Bradley 74-67 on the road earlier this season and crushed the Braves 77-51 in the MVC Tournament last year.

Bradley doesn't have nearly as much to play for as the Braves are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the MVC Tournament and have no shot at an at-large.  The Braves have lost three of their last five MVC road games and should not be getting this much respect.

Drake is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after winning eight or more of its last 10 games.  Bradley is 2-17 ATS in its last 19 road games with a total set of 145 to 149.5.  Bet Drake Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -7.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and are fully healthy for basically the first time all season.  The Mavericks have three road losses to Indiana, Boston and Cleveland during this stretch, but they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home with all four wins coming by 8 points or more including a 35-point win over OKC and a 10-point win over Phoenix.

The 76ers are 26-8 with Joel Embiid and 8-17 without him.  They have gone 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall and have been grossly overvalued without him.  Not to mention, they are without another key scorer in De'Anthony Melton right now, while Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable.  I just can't see them being able to keep pace with the Mavericks today.  Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +14.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the UNLV Rebels.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and getting very fortunate in close games recently.  They beat Colorado State by 6 at home and followed it up with a 75-69 (OT) win at Wyoming last time out having no business covering as 5.5-point favorites.

Now the Rebels are in a sandwich spot here with their next two games against San Diego State and Nevada likely to determine their NCAA Tournament hopes to close out the regular season.  I don't think they come with their best effort here, and we saw what happened to them when that was the case against Air Force at home as 11-point favorites in a game they lost by 32 points.

San Jose State showed some life in a 72-64 loss at 21.5-point dogs at San Diego State last time out.  The Aztecs continue to show up for head coach Tim Miles.  They lost 77-65 at home to UNLV in their first meeting this season on January 27th.  But UNLV shot 68.2% as a team including 46.7% from 3-point range.  I cannot expect the Rebels to shoot that well again in the rematch.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (San Jose State) - revenging a home loss by 10 points or more, off two straight conference losses are 175-109 (61.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  UNLV was a 3.5-point road favorite in that first meeting with the Spartans and is now a 14.5-point home favorite in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on TCU +7

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the BYU Cougars.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, coming back from double-digits down in the 2H to upset Kansas 76-68 on the road.  Nobody beats Kansas at Phog Allen Fieldhouse, and it was a huge accomplishment.  But now comes the natural letdown following that victory.

BYU has been shaky at home of late with each of its last three victories coming by 7 points or less, including a 2-point win as 12.5-point favorites over UCF and a 6-point win as 11-point favorites over Kansas State.  The Cougars are once again getting too much respect here as 7-point favorites over a much better TCU team.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Horned Frogs off a 62-54 home loss to Baylor on Monday.  They are rested and ready to go getting four days off in between games.  TCU has actually played its best basketball on the road this season, going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five Big 12 road games with upset wins at Baylor and Kansas State, as well as a 1-point loss at Texas Tech.

I like the matchup for TCU too because they are an elite offensive team in transition while BYU's transition defense is suspect.  I think they can get a lot of easy points out in transition to stay within this inflated number and possibly pull off the upset.  TCU is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Los Angeles PK

The Los Angeles Lakers know the playoffs are approaching and are playing with a sense of urgency.  They are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games overall with one of those losses coming to the Nuggets.  It was their 2nd loss to the Nuggets this season, and they were swept by them in the Western Conference Finals last year in four games that all went down to the wire.

It's safe to say the Lakers will be highly motivated for revenge tonight.  I like them to get their revenge considering they are about as healthy as they have been all season, while the Nuggets have some key injury concerns.  Jamal Murray was forced from their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable to play tonight.  Fellow starter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is questionable as well.  That is two key scorers they could be without, but I like the Lakers to get it done either way.

Denver is 3-11 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Lakers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games.  Los Angeles is 20-9 SU at home this season.  Denver is 17-14 SU & 12-18-1 ATS on the road.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri +1.5

Missouri is 0-15 SU in SEC play this season.  But the Tigers continue to fight going 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  One of those games was a 79-76 road loss to Ole Miss on February 17th.  Now the Tigers have a great shot to get that elusive first conference win as they host the Rebels this time around.

Ole Miss looks like it has quit.  The Rebels are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with five of those losses coming by double-digits, including each of the last three.  This run has eliminated them from NCAA Tournament contention when they were safely in the field just a month ago.  They won't be motivated at all to beat Missouri again tonight.

Ole Miss is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 games after losing three of its last four games.  Missouri is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.  The Tigers nearly upset Tennessee in a 5-point loss in their last home game, and they will pull off the upset tonight.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

25* CBB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Tennessee/Alabama OVER 169

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in nine consecutive games, including 95 or more in seven of those nine.  They play even faster and are even more efficient at home where they are averaging 95.8 points per game.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in five of their last six games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Alabama's last seven games overall with 166 or more combined points in all seven games, including 175 or more in six of those.

Rick Barnes has the best offensive team he has had at Tennessee.  The Vols rank 16th in adjusted offense and 65th in adjusted tempo.  They have scored 86 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.  They put up 91 on Alabama in their first meeting this season.  But Alabama only scored 71 thanks to 4-of-21 (19%) shooting from 3-point range.  They will shoot much better at home, where they make 41.6% from 3 on the season.  Both teams should get 85-plus in this one.

Alabama is 8-0 OVER after scoring 80 points or more in four consecutive games this season.  The Crimson Tide are 11-1 OVER when playing against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  Tennessee is 15-7 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Houston/Oklahoma UNDER 130

Houston is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cougars rank 347th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted defense.  They are also known for going on long scoring droughts on offense.  Points will be very hard to come by for both teams today.

Speaking of offensive scoring droughts, Oklahoma only managed 45 points against Iowa State last time out and has scored 66 or fewer in five of its last seven while going 5-1 UNDER in its last six.  The Sooners also play slow ranking 233rd in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted defense.

Oklahoma is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games off two straight games with 12 or fewer assists.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame +6.5

Notre Dame is one of the most improved teams in the ACC from the beginning of the season up until now.  Micah Shrewsberry was a great hire and it was going to take some time.  But the Fighting Irish are really enjoying playing the role of spoiler here down the stretch.

Indeed, the Fighting Irish have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse.  They are 3-0 at home during this stretch and coming off a 70-65 upset win over Wake Forest as 6.5-point dogs.  Wake Forest is in the same class as Clemson, and the Fighting Irish should not be catching 6.5 points again at home today to the Tigers.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Clemson after going 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Tigers have played four of their last five games at home.  Now they hit the road where things won't come as easy for them.

Notre Dame is 11-4 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Brad Brownell is 11-21 ATS in road games after winning six or seven of his last eight games as the coach of Clemson.  Shrewsberry is 11-1 ATS in March games as a head coach.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on K-State/Cincinnati UNDER 140.5

Both Kansas State and Cincinnati are dead nuts UNDER teams who like to slow down the pace and play elite defense.  Cincinnati ranks 194th in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted defense.  Kansas State ranks 212th in adjusted tempo and 19th in adjusted defense.  The Wildcats are the 3rd-worst offensive team in the Big 12 while the Bearcats are the 5th-worst.

The UNDER is 7-3 in Cincinnati's last 10 games overall.  The Wildcats are 13-4 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on VCU/Richmond UNDER 136

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off today with a lot at stake in the Atlantic 10 and points will be at a premium as a result.  VCU beat Richmond 63-52 for just 115 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The Rams and Spiders have now combined for 136 or fewer points in seven of their last eight meetings with 139 being the lone exception, so there's clearly value on this UNDER 136.

Richmond ranks 225th in adjusted tempo, 141st in adjusted offense and 26th in adjusted defense.  VCU plays even slower ranking 297th in adjusted tempo, 122nd in adjusted offense and 45th in adjusted defense.  So clearly both teams hang their hat on defense.

VCU is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on USC/Washington OVER 153.5

Washington is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Huskies rank 27th in adjusted tempo and 34th in adjusted offense this season.  The OVER is 8-3 in Washington's last 11 games overall with 162 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.

USC has been an OVER team when they've been fully healthy with Collier (16.3 PPG, 4.2 APG) and Ellis (16.5 PPG) on the court at the same time, which is the case right now.  They rank 114th in adjusted tempo and like to push the pace as well.  The OVER is 4-2 in their last six games overall.

USC beat Washington 80-74 for 154 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 4th.  Amazingly, they were missing both Collier and Bronny James in this game and it still got to 154 points despite USC shooting just 4-of-22 (18%) from 3-point range.  

I have to expect they will shoot better in the rematch, and I know Washington will shoot better than the 43.6% they shot in that first meeting.  The Huskies are shooting 51.4% at home this season including 40.2% from 3-point range.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State/Minnesota OVER 150.5

The OVER is 5-1 in Minnesota's last six games overall with 151 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Gophers are 42nd in adjusted offense this season but not a very good defensive team as they have allowed 70 or more points in six consecutive games.

Penn State is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 50th in adjusted tempo.  The OVER is 6-2 in their last eight games overall with 152 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 150.5 is too low for a game involving Penn State and Minnesota right now with the way they are playing.  These are two of the four worst defensive teams in the Big Ten this season.

Minnesota beat Penn State 83-74 on January 27th in their first meeting this season in a game that saw 157 combined points.  This was a shootout despite the fact that both teams shot poorly from 3-point range, combining for 9-of-33 (27.3%) in that first meeting.  I have to think both will shoot it better from distance in the rematch.

Minnesota is 6-0 OVER when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.  Penn State is 15-4 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Marquette/Creighton FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 154.5

Creighton has this false perception as an over team which consistently has oddsmakers setting their totals too high.  But the Bluejays play slow ranking 235th in adjusted tempo and are an elite defensive team ranking 23rd in adjusted defense.  They will control the tempo playing at home today against Marquette.

The Golden Eagles are a good offensive team, but they are even better defensively this season which is why they are a contender.  They rank 15th in adjusted defense.  Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) was forced from the last game with an oblique injury and is very questionable to play today.  They would be without one of their best scorers but also one of their worst defenders if he cannot go today.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Marquette and Creighton with 144 or fewer combined points in all four.  They have combined for 144 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings as well.  Marquette beat Creighton 72-67 for just 139 combined points in their first meeting this season.

Marquette is 9-1 UNDER after going over the total in its previous game this season.  The Golden Eagles are 10-0 UNDER in their last 10 road games after scoring 85 points or more.  Creighton is 8-0 UNDER when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Oregon/Arizona ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +13.5

Oregon (19-9) is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Ducks have a great opportunity to get in if they beat Arizona today.  They will be max motivated, and I trust head coach Dana Altman to come up with the right game plan to keep the Ducks competitive in this one Saturday.

Oregon was only a 3.5-point home underdog in its first meeting with Arizona in which the Wildcats shot 10-of-19 (52.6%) from 3-point range to win by 9.  Now the Ducks are 13.5-point dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage.  The Wildcats will not shoot that well again.

Arizona is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers last game.  Altman is 50-36 ATS as a road underdog or PK as the coach of Oregon.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Kentucky CBS No-Brainer on OVER 166

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 17th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 20-8 OVER in all games this season, including 13-3 OVER in its 16 home games where it is scoring 93.2 points per game on 53.3% shooting while also allowing 78.8 points per game at home.

Arkansas also likes to get out and run ranking 49th in adjusted tempo.  The Razorbacks are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They won't mind getting out and running with the Wildcats today.

I think the first meeting between these teams with Kentucky and Arkansas both missing key players is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Kentucky won 63-57 for just 120 combined points.  But the pace was there and the shooting wasn't.  Arkansas shot 20-of-60 (33.3%) while Kentucky shot 23-of-63 (36.5%).  It's safe to say both teams will shoot a lot better in the rematch.

Kentucky is 9-0 OVER off two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Wildcats are 16-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  Kentucky is 7-0 OVER in SEC home games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/Wisconsin OVER 153.5

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini rank 60th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense this season.  Brad Underwood has by far his best offensive team in his time at Illinois, but it's also his worst defensive team.  The Fighting Illini look to run every chance they get and nobody has been able to stop them.

Illinois is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games overall with 162 or more combined points in all eight games.  The OVER is 12-1 in their 13 games overall as well.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough probably because of the perception of the Big Ten, and we're getting another good value on the OVER 153.5 points today.

Wisconsin has one of the best offenses of the Greg Gard era ranking 17th in the country in adjusted offense.  But the Badgers are also one of the worst defensive teams under Gard, which is a big reason they have lost six of their last eight games coming in while allowing 70 or more points in seven of those eight games.  The OVER is 11-4 in Wisconsin's 15 home games this season where they are scoring 78.2 points per game and shooting 49.9%.

Illinois is 11-0 OVER off a conference win this season.  Wisconsin is 8-1 OVER after playing a road game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane +15.5

Florida Atlantic has been grossly overvalued in conference play this season after making the Final 4 last year.  The Owls join the American Athletic and are finding the sledding much tougher in a better conference.  They are just 4-11 ATS in conference games this season with just one win by more than 15 points, making for a 14-1 system working against them.  They should not be laying 15.5 points to Tulane today.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Tulane after going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Green Wave have kind of been going through the motions, but like everyone else in this conference, Florida Atlantic will get their attention after making the Final 4 last year.  Plus, the Green Wave want revenge from a 85-84 home loss to FAU as 7-point dogs in their first meeting this season, so they have already proven they can play with them.

Tulane has played 27 games this season and has just one loss by more than 14 points all season.  That makes for a 26-1 system backing the Green Wave pertaining to this 15.5-point spread.  Bet Tulane Saturday.

20* Villanova/Providence FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 136

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Wildcats rank 345th in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Villanova's last seven games overall with 234 or fewer combined points in all seven games.  This total of 136 is too high for a game involving Villanova right now.

Providence is an elite defensive team as well ranking 20th in the country in adjusted defense.  The Friars are struggling to score right now without Bryce Hopkins (15.5 PPG).  Villanova is also possibly without two key players in TJ Bamba (10.5 PPG) and Jordan Longino (6.6 PPG), who are both questionable.  The Wildcats struggle to score as it is even with these guys in the lineup.

Villanova beat Providence 68-50 for just 118 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 4th.  It will be a similar defensive struggle in the rematch today as familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

Villanova is 9-1 UNDER vs. poor pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Bucks/Bulls ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5

Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach.  The Bucks are 12-1-1 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in eight consecutive games, including 220 or fewer in seven of them.  

The Bucks rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well.  Now they take on a Chicago Bulls team that doesn't like to run at all.  The Bulls rank 29th in the NBA in pace this season.

Chicago is 3-2 UNDER in its last five games overall and would be 4-1 if not going to double-OT against the Cavaliers last time out.  The Bulls have gone for 220 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in four of their last five games.

Chicago is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games off two consecutive division games.  The Bucks are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  Milwaukee is 12-1 UNDER in its last 13 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 46% shooting or higher.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Dayton/Loyola-Chicago ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137

Dayton and Loyola-Chicago are tied for 2nd place in the Atlantic 10 at 12-3 this season just one game behind Richmond.  There is a lot at stake for both teams tonight, and I expect this game to be played close to the vest, which is going to lead to a defensive battle as a result.

Dayton ranks 349th in adjusted tempo out of 362 teams in the entire country.  The Flyers are once again a great defensive team this season ranking 61st in adjusted defense.  They face a Loyola-Chicago team that is just 183rd in adjusted offense but 38th in adjusted defense and hang their hats on that end.

These teams met last year at Loyola-Chicago with a 65-49 win for Dayton and just 114 combined points.  The Ramblers are 10-4-1 UNDER in all home games this season where they are allowing just 61.1 points per game and 35.4% shooting.  Eight of Loyola-Chicago's last nine home games have seen 139 or fewer combined points.  Seven of Dayton's last eight road games have seen 138 or fewer combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pacers/Pelicans OVER 238

The Indiana Pacers are fully healthy right now and an elite offensive team when that's the case.  They face another fully healthy New Orleans Pelicans team tonight that is also an elite offensive team when that's the case.  This one has shootout written all over it.

These teams just met on Wednesday with the Pacers winning 123-114 at home for 237 combined points.  But that was a bad spot for the Pelicans playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, so they were tired and did not shoot it particularly well in a game that was played at a break-neck pace.  Both teams will be fresh after having yesterday off and will shoot it better in the rematch tonight that should also be played at a break-neck pace again.

New Orleans is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 home games off an ATS loss.  Any total below 240 in a game involving the Pacers who rank 2nd in pace and 2nd in offensive rating this season is rare.  We'll take advantage and back the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Mavs/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 237.5

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team when Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic are on the court at the same time.  They rank 8th in pace and 6th in offensive rating this season, but those numbers are even better with these two on the court.  They have been for their last four games and have combined for 251, 240, 244 and 236 points with their opponents in their first four games back from the All-Star Break.

Now the Mavericks face a Boston Celtics team that ranks 1st in offensive rating this season and is the best offensive team in the game when fully healthy, which is the case right now.  This one has shootout written all over it between these two elite offensive teams.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 OVER in road games when revenging a home loss this season.  Boston is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after getting outrebounded by 15 or more boards last game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall and continue to show up every night.  They followed up their tough 113-111 loss at New York as 11.5-point dogs with a 105-95 upset as 10.5-point dogs at Chicago on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Now the Pistons have had the last two days off and are fresh and ready to give the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money.

Cleveland has been grossly overvalued of late going 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Donovan Mitchell is questionable to play tonight with a knee injury and is unlikely to go.  This is a tired Cavaliers team that will be playing their 6th game in 9 days.  Asking them to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Detroit will be playing with triple revenge this season losing the first three meetings to the Cavaliers by 7, 9 and 8 points.  The Pistons don't want to get swept, and if they do a 9-point loss or less works for us.

The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days.  The Pistons are 18-9 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/76ers UNDER 214.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts UNDER team right now.  Charlotte is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in nine consecutive games, including 213 or fewer in six of those.  The Hornets have allowed an average of 103.1 points per game in their last eight games, and they have scored an average of just 90.3 points per game in their last four, which is atrocious in today's NBA.

The Philadelphia 76ers have really been struggling offensively without Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG).  They have scored 104 or fewer points in five consecutive games and an average of 100.2 points per game during this stretch.  Now they just lost another key scorer in De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG) to injury.  Points will be hard to come by for both teams tonight.

Charlotte is 32-11 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 217 or fewer combined points in four of the five, and 208 or fewer in three of them.  They combined for 186 points in their most recent meeting this season in January 20th.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Quinnipiac/Iona OVER 150.5

Quinnipiac is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bobcats rank 18th in the country in adjusted tempo.  They score 78.4 points per game this season.  But they have quit playing defense during their current four-game losing streak which has seen them allow 80-plus points in four consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five games with 157 or more combined points in four of the five.

Iona also prefers to play up-tempo ranking 153rd in adjusted tempo while pressing the entire game.  We saw what happened when these two teams got together on January 21st in their first meeting this season and it was an absolute shootout.  Quinnipiac won 91-87 for 178 combined points.  We have 27.5 points to spare here in the rematch in what should be another track meet.

Iona is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Gonzaga/San Francisco ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +3.5

Both Gonzaga and San Francisco are on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But Gonzaga looks more in than San Francisco right now, which means the Don need this game more.  The Bulldogs have a huge game on deck against St. Mary's on Saturday, and a win there would likely get them in the Big Dance.  They could be caught looking ahead to that game.

This is the best chance for the Dons to get a signature win, so they will be 'all in' to get it tonight.  Plus, they want revenge from a 77-72 road loss at Gonzaga in their first meeting this season.  The Bulldogs shot 20 more free throws than they did, and that was the difference.  I think they will get the benefit of the whistle at home this time around.

Nobody in the WCC has played Gonzaga and St. Mary's tougher than San Francisco has.  The Dons also lost by just 4 at St. Mary's two games ago.  It's time for them to get rewarded for their efforts tonight.  They are 14-1 SU at home this season.

The Dons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  San Francisco is 7-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.  Bet San Francisco Thursday.

20* Wizards/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a brutal spot tonight.  They came back from 21 points down in the 4th quarter to beat their hated rivals in the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  It was the largest comeback of LeBron James' career in the 4th quarter, and he was the catalyst.

Now the Lakers are a very tired team with James questionable to play tonight in the 2nd of a back-to-back.  He played 37 minutes, Anthony Davis 36, Russell 34 and Reaves 36 last night.  They aren't a very deep team right now due to missing Wood, Vincent and Vanderbilt as well.

The Wizards will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the Lakers on the road.  They have played their best basketball on the road this season going 19-10-1 ATS in road games.  They had yesterday off and took both the Cavaliers and Warriors to the wire in their last two games, so they have been competitive and have not quit.

The Lakers are 1-10 ATS off a road win this season.  Washington is 11-2 ATS in road games after going under the total in its previous game this season.  The Wizards are a perfect 11-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the Wizards Thursday.

20* Heat/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Miami +5

The Miami Heat want revenge after losing 4-1 in the NBA Finals to the Denver Nuggets last season.  This is their first chance at revenge in the 2023-24 season, and I expect them to take advantage now that they are playing their best basketball of the season, plus the fact that they have the rest advantage.

The Heat are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone losses coming by 4 to Boston and by 8 to the Clippers.  They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six road games including upset wins at Milwaukee by 26 as 8-point dogs, at Philadelphia by 5 as 3-point dogs, at New Orleans by 11 as 3-point dogs and at Sacramento by 11 as 7.5-point dogs.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a very weak schedule.  Their lone impressive win was at Golden State, but they also beat Washington and Portland and Sacramento without De'Aaron Fox.  The Nuggets needed a comeback win last night against the Kings, and Jamal Murray is questionable to play tonight after scoring 32 points on 13-of-15 shooting.  I'll gladly fade the Nuggets playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Santa Clara -9.5

Santa Clara has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since getting into conference play.  The Broncos played a very difficult non-conference schedule which prepared them for this.  They beat the likes of Oregon, Stanford and Washington State in the non-conference.

The Broncos have since gone 11-2-1 ATS in WCC play this season.  That includes their 101-86 home win over the Portland Pilots.  This despite the Pilots shooting 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range while also shooting 17 more FT than the Broncos, yet they still lost by 15.  They are due some shooting regression in the rematch, and another blowout victory in the Broncos' favor is in store.

Portland is just 3-15 SU in its last 18 games overall with 12 losses by double-digits.  The three wins came against Pacific (twice) and Pepperdine by 4.  Pacific is the worst team in the conference.  Portland is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country and they will be up against one of the best rebounding teams in the country in Santa Clara, which is something they cannot fix.  Santa Clara outrebounded Portland 39-24 in the first meeting.

Santa Clara is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  Portland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 7-plus boards per game.  Bet Santa Clara Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Spurs OVER 236

The OVER is 7-2-1 in Thunder last 10 games overall with 236 or more combined points in seven of their last nine games.  They have combined for 232 or more points with nine of their last 10 opponents.  They rank 3rd in offensive rating this season.

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  The Spurs and their opponents have combined for 237 or more points in three of their last four games coming out of the All-Star Break.  The lone exception was against the Timberwolves, who are a dead nuts UNDER team being the best defensive team in the NBA.

These teams met earlier this year with the Thunder winning 140-114 on January 24th for 254 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.

San Antonio is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 home games off three or more consecutive road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Warriors/Knicks TNT ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 223

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace and 11th in defensive rating this season.  They are missing Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, plus Jalen Brunson is questionable with a neck injury to really hamper them offensively right now.  They have scored 113 or fewer points in seven consecutive games, including 92 against the Pelicans without Brunson last time out.

The Golden State Warriors are playing much better defensively since getting Draymond Green back from suspension.  The Warriors are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They have allowed 112 or fewer points in 10 of those 14 games.  They are without Andrew Wiggins right now which hurts them offensively.  The UNDER is 19-11 in New York's 30 home games this season, which are averaging 220.3 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Hornets UNDER 218.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between the Bucks and Hornets in two weeks.  The first two stayed well UNDER their totals with 204 and 208 combined points, and it will be more of the same in the 3rd meeting tonight.

Both the Hornets and Bucks are dead nuts UNDER teams right now.  The Hornets have allowed an average of 102 points per game in their last seven games, which is unheard of in today's NBA.  Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Bucks interim head coach.

The Bucks are 11-1-1 UNDER in their last 13 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in seven consecutive games, including 220 or fewer in six of them.  Charlotte is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in eight consecutive games.

Charlotte is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota/Illinois OVER 154.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 7-0 in their last seven games overall with 162 or more combined points in all seven games.  The OVER is 11-1 in their 12 games overall as well.  The Fighting Illini rank 57th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense this season while also looking to get out in the fast break.

Illinois will control the tempo playing at home tonight in what I expect to be an up and down game.  Minnesota has really lit it up offensively in recent games scoring 81 or more points in three of its last five games, and 75 points or more in six of its last eight games.  If the Golden Gophers get to 75 points tonight this game is going to sail OVER because Illinois is getting 80-plus.  They have scored 80-plus in 10 of their last 11 games.

Illinois is 10-0 OVER off a conference win this season.  The Fighting Illini are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Alabama/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 166

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in eight consecutive games, including 95 or more in six of those eight.  

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 92 or more points in four of their last five games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Alabama's last six games overall with 166 or more combined points in all six games.

Now the Crimson Tide face an Ole Miss team that boasts one of the best trios of guards in the entire country.  The Rebels rank 41st in adjusted offense and 18th in 3-point percentage at 37.7%.  Their guards will get whatever they want against Alabama's defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Seton Hall/Creighton FS1 No-Brainer on Seton Hall +8.5

Seton Hall is making its move to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Pirates have gotten healthy and have gone 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Villanova.  They beat Xavier by 18 at home three games ago, upset St. John's 68-62 on the road two games ago and crushed Butler by 12 at home last time out.

Now the Pirates want revenge from a 97-94 (3 OT) home loss to Creighton.  I love the value we are getting on them catching 8.5 points in the rematch.  They have a huge rest advantage here playing just their 2nd game in 10 days while having the last three days off, while Creighton has only had two days off since their 80-66 road loss at St. John's on Sunday with travel involved as well.  I think the Bluejays remain overvalued after upsetting UConn at home two games ago.

Creighton is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after two straight games with two or fewer assists.  The Pirates are on a mission tonight and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the outright upset.  Bet Seton Hall Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois +8.5

Southern Illinois has just one loss by more than 4 points in its last 12 games.  The Salukis should not be catching 8.5 points to Bradley tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 1-point home loss to Bradley in their first meeting this season.  I love playing revenge-minded road underdogs who lost a close game to their opponent in their first meeting.

Bradley is just 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Braves only won by 3 as 12.5-point home favorites over Illinois State last time out.  They also lost at home to Drake outright, so they have been vulnerable at home.  Southern Illinois is 7-2 ATS in its last nine true road games and has played its best basketball on the highway.

Each of the last 10 meetings between Bradley and Southern Illinois have been decided by 10 points or less, including eight by 8 points or fewer.  The Salukis trail the Braves by one game for third place in the MVC and are trying to hang on to a top 4 seed leading two teams by one game or less for that spot to add to their motivation.  Bet Southern Illinois Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma/Iowa State UNDER 137

Two of the best defensive teams not only in the Big 12 but in the entire country square off tonight when Oklahoma visits Iowa State.  The Cyclones rank 3rd in adjusted defense while the Sooners rank 24th.  Both offenses are known for going on long scoring droughts as well.

Each of the last four meetings between Iowa State and Oklahoma have seen 134 or fewer combined points with 134, 111, 123 and 129 combined points, respectively.  That includes their 134-point effort in their first meeting this season, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  That game even became a foul fest late as Iowa State was trying to come back in a 71-63 defeat.

Oklahoma is 8-2 UNDER vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Iowa State is 23-11 UNDER in its last 34 games vs. a good teams that wins 60-80% of its games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors +3

The Toronto Raptors have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 to Indiana going into the break.  They have come out of the break on fire with a 28-point win over Brooklyn as 1-point home favorites, a 2-point win at Atlanta as 8-point dogs and an 8-point win at Indiana as 5.5-point dogs.

The Raptors are still very much alive for the play-in in the Eastern Conference trailing the reeling Hawks and Bulls.  They are playing with a fire under their belly to try and make it.  The Raptors have a big rest advantage over the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for the Raptors, who are fully healthy right now.

Dallas will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd road game in 4 days.  The Mavericks will have to try and get back up off the mat after losing on a half court buzzer-beater to the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.  Luke Doncis played 41 minutes and had 45 points, 14 assists and 9 rebounds while Kyrie Irving played 39 minutes and scored 30 points, and it still wasn't enough.  I question how much these two and the Mavericks have left in the tank tonight.

Toronto is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games off two consecutive road games.  Dallas is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 non-conference games.  Toronto has pulled the outright upset in each of its last two meetings with Dallas, including on the road earlier this season.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +11.5

The Providence Friars (18-9) are coming up clutch here down the stretch while squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with upset wins over Creighton at home and Xavier on the road.  Their lone loss came by 3 points at Butler.

The Friars can pretty much seal their spot in the Big Dance with an upset road win at Marquette tonight, and they will be max motivated to do just that.  They already beat Marquette 72-57 as 4-point home dogs in their first meeting this season, so they clearly have this team figured out.

Providence also has a big rest advantage having six days off in between games to rest and prepare for the Golden Eagles.  Meanwhile, Marquette just beat Xavier on Sunday and will only have two days to get ready.  The Golden Eagles should not be this heavily favored given the rest disrepancy.

Providence is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six road games when playing with five or six days' rest.  The Friars are 7-1 ATS in Big East road games this season.  Providence is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +6.5

This is a terrible spot for Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons are in a massive letdown spot off their 83-79 'upset' home win over a Top 10 Duke Blue Devils team that led to a court storming.  It followed up their blowout home win over Pitt.  The Demon Deacons won't be nearly as motivated to beat lowly Notre Dame tonight.

Wake Forest has been vulnerable on the road this season going 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 games played away from home.  Notre Dame is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and improving as the season goes on under first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry.  They beat Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at home, upset Louisville by 22 on the road and only lost by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse.

The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings between Notre Dame and Wake Forest.  The Fighting Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 85 points or more.  This is a dangerous, sleepy spot for the Demon Deacons.  Bet Notre Dame Tuesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Bucks UNDER 221.5

Both the Hornets and Bucks are dead nuts UNDER teams right now.  The Hornets have allowed an average of 98.5 points per game in their last six games, which is unheard of in today's NBA.  Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Bucks interim head coach.

The Bucks are 10-1-1 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in six consecutive games, including 220 or fewer in five of them.  Charlotte is 5-0 UNDER in its last five games overall with 222 or fewer combined points in seven consecutive games.

The Hornets and Bucks played earlier this month and combined for just 204 points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch with how these teams are playing currently.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +14.5

The Charlotte Hornets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Warriors by 13 as 12.5-point dogs.  The Warriors got a layup in the final seconds to cover when they could have ran out the shot clock.

The point is the Hornets are a team that keeps fighting.  They have won all five of those games outright as underdogs beating Memphis 115-106 as 5-point dogs, Indiana 111-102 as 10-point dogs, Atlanta 122-109 as 7-point dogs, Utah 115-107 as 10-point dogs and Portland 93-80 as 3.5-point dogs.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are coming off two consecutive huge road wins over the Timberwolves and 76ers.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Hornets, who they just blew out at home in early February.  But this is a different Hornets team now, and they will be the more motivated team for revenge.  Getting 14.5 points here is too much.

Charlotte is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 105 points or fewer last game.  The Hornets are playing elite defense right now holding their last six opponents to an average of 98.5 points per game, which is unheard of in today's NBA.  Bet the Hornets Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They are coming off two consecutive upset home losses to the Heat and Bulls.  But they have played their best basketball on the road this season, and they will be happy to get to play at Madison Square Garden tonight.

The Pelicans are 15-4 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games.  They have a big rest advantage tonight after having yesterday off.  Meanwhile, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing a basket in the final seconds to beat the Pistons 113-111 as 11.5-point home favorites on Monday.

The Knicks have been struggling lately due to all the injuries that have mounted up.  The Knicks are 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are without three of their best players in Randle, Anunoby and Robinson.  Josh Hart played 42 minutes, Jalen Brunson 40 and Dante ViVincenzo 32 last night.  The Knicks won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Knicks UNDER 218.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the New Orleans Pelicans visit the New York Knicks.  The Pelicans rank 6th in defensive rating this season while the Knicks rank 9th.  The Knicks rank dead last (30th) in pace this season, and will control the tempo playing at home.

The Knicks and their opponents have combined for 118 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall.  They are struggling offensively right now scoring 113 points or fewer in nine of their last 10 games overall.  They are struggling because they are short-handed without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby right now.

The Pelicans also have injury concerns of their own with both Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum questionable, plus Jose Alvarado out due to suspension.  The UNDER is 8-4 in Pelicans last 12 games overall.  The Pelicans beat the Knicks 96-87 in their first meeting this season that saw just 183 combined points.  It should be more of the same in the rematch.

New York is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points pre game in the 2nd half of the season.  The Knicks are 8-1 UNDER in  home games when revenging a road loss this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks PK

It's addition by subtraction for the Atlanta Hawks.  They have actually been better without Trae Young than with him this season.  They proved it again last time out with a 109-92 home win over the Orlando Magic last time out.  They are certainly much better defensively without Young, and Dejounte Murray plays better when he is running the offense rather than playing off the ball.

The Utah Jazz are a mess right now going 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming at home over the lowly San Antonio Spurs.  They lost by 8 as 10-point favorites to the Hornets, by 3 to the Warriors who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, by 16 at home to the Lakers, by 22 at home to the Warriors and by 14 at Phoenix.  They are all but eliminated from playoff contention because they would have to chase down the Warriors or Lakers for the final two play-in spots, which they know isn't happening.

The Jazz are 9-20 SU & 13-16 ATS on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 10.0 points pre game.  Atlanta is trying to fend off two teams for the final play-in spot in the East.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Chicago +3.5

Loyola-Chicago sits at 20-7 this season and 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in Atlantic 10 play and tied for first place in the conference with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  There's a shot they could earn an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament with a big finish.

The Ramblers are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone loss coming on the road by 7 at VCU.  The spot really favors them because they are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game 9 days and coming off an 80-59 home win over George Mason that took very little out of them.

St. Bonaventure will be playing in its 3rd different city in 7 days after a 13-point road loss at La Salle on Wednesday followed up an upset road win at UMass on Saturday that is giving the Bonnies more respect than they deserve tonight.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -4

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Wisconsin Badgers after going 2-5 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They went through a gauntlet during that stretch with little rest and some very tough opponents.

But the Badgers finally got the rest they needed as they have had the last six days off.  Now they get to face arguably the worst team in the Big Ten in the Indiana Hoosiers, who are 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The last four games have been very concerning losing by 20 at Purdue, by 4 at home to Northwestern, by 15 at home to Nebraska and by 9 at Penn State.

The Hoosiers are dangerously close to quitting on head coach Mike Woodson, and they are a banged up team that just isn't very deep.  This is a tough spot for the Hoosiers playing their 4th game in 10 days to really test that fatigue.

Wisconsin is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 road games after losing five or six of its last seven games.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +7.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and could use a big road win over Clemson tonight.  The Panthers are on the bubble despite going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with some tremendous road wins during this stretch.  They upset Duke, NC State and Virginia on the road.

Now the Panthers have their sights set on revenge from a 79-70 home loss to Clemson as 1.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, including two blowout wins at Georgia Tech and at home against Florida State, which are two of the worst teams in the conference.  They lost outright to NC State at home the game prior as similar 8-point favorites.

Clemson is just 2-6 ATS in ACC home games this season.  The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games after making 78% of their free throws or better last game.  Pitt is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when revenging a home loss.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.

15* Baylor/TCU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on TCU -2

TCU is playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now.  The Horned Frogs are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point as 5.5-point road dogs at Texas Tech.  They crushed West Virginia by 16 and Cincinnati by 18 at home and upset Kansas State on the road as well.

Now the Horned Frogs get to stay at home following that 18-point win over Cincinnati on Saturday.  They will still be fresh and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for Baylor, which is in one of the worst spots of the season.

Baylor is coming off an 82-76 (OT) home loss to Houston.  The Bears had a chance to win it with a FT with 4 seconds left in regulation and missed.  I don't know how they are going to be able to get back up off the mat after that defeat, which followed up two road games at West Virginia and at BYU with a lot of travel involved.  The Bears will now be playing in their 4th different city in 10 days.  And they must face a TCU team that likes to push the tempo and will test their tired legs and minds.

TCU beat Baylor 105-102 (3 OT) on the road in their first meeting this season.  Baylor is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when revenging a loss as a favorite.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after five straight games forcing 14 or fewer turnovers.  TCU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.  Bet TCU Monday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Baylor/TCU OVER 147.5

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 66th in adjusted tempo and 26th in adjusted offense.  The Horned Frogs are always looking to get out rand run and get easy buckets in transition.  They face a Baylor team that is elite on the offensive end ranking 5th in adjusted offense but one that among the worst in the Big 12 defensively.

TCU is scoring 83.0 points per game at home this season while Baylor is scoring 82.3 points per game overall.  These teams met on January 27th at Baylor with a 105-102 (3 OT) win for TCU being the result.  That game was tied 76-76 at the end of regulation for 152 combined points, so it still went OVER the 148.5-point total in regulation.  And now we are getting an even better number of 147.5 for the rematch.

Baylor is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games off two consecutive games with five or fewer steals.  The Bears are 8-1 OVER in their last nine road games vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game.  TCU Is 7-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The Horned Frogs are 8-2 OVER vs. good offensive teams averaging 77 or more points per game this season.  This one has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +2.5

Finding teams like the Memphis Grizzlies who are out of playoff contention but continue to show up and fight every night is one key to winning in the NBA late in the season.  The Grizzlies are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games taking both New Orleans and the Clippers to the wire in two losses, while also upsetting both Houston and Milwaukee.

Finding teams like the Brooklyn Nets who seem to care less about winning games and fading them is also one key to winning in the NBA late in the season.  The Nets are 8-25 SU & 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Their last three games were very concerning.  They lost by 50 at Boston, by 28 at Toronto and by 15 at Minnesota.  They aren't even trying right now, and they should not be favored over the Grizzlies, who at least get after it defensively ranking 10th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games off three or more consecutive home games.  Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games after losing six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Nets are 2-14 ATS in road games vs. teams who shoot 24 or fewer free throws per game.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams that shoot 21 or fewer free throws per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

15* Kings/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 239

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Kings are 7-1-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 238 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  The OVER is 3-1 in their last four meetings with the Clippers with 248, 255 and 351 combined points in the three OVERS.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +3.5

The Charlotte Hornets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road to the Warriors by 13 as 12.5-point dogs.  The Warriors got a layup in the final seconds to cover when they could have ran out the shot clock.

The point is the Hornets are a team that keeps fighting.  They have won all four of those games outright as underdogs beating Memphis 115-106 as 5-point dogs, Indiana 111-102 as 10-point dogs, Atlanta 122-109 as 7-point dogs and Utah 115-107 as 10-point dogs.

Now the Hornets take on a hapless Portland Trail Blazers that has no business being favored over them in their current state.  The Blazers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games overall losing all seven games by 6 points or more, and six by 9 points or more.  They are without Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe right now and struggling to score without these guys.  They have scored 112 or fewer points in six of their last seven games with the lone exception being 122 against the Pistons in OT.

Portland is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  Charlotte is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 road games after allowing 105 points or less.  The Hornets are only allowing 102.2 points per game in their last five games and are getting after it defensively.  Bet the Hornets Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Jazz OVER 241

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 10th in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  The Jazz have allowed at least 129 points in four of their last five games overall.  They face another dead nuts OVER team tonight in the San Antonio Spurs, who rank 4th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.

The Jazz and Spurs met once earlier this season with the Jazz winning 130-118 for 248 combined points.  They also combined for 245 points in their final meeting last season.  This total of 241 is too short for this game tonight.

Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 200 or higher (Utah) - after getting beating by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a losing team are 26-8 (76.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.