15* Rockets/Pacers ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Houston +6

The Indiana Pacers are coming off a crushing loss to the Miami Heat. They blew a double-digit lead in the second half on Wednesday and fell by a final of 94-97. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat as it was their biggest game of the season to this point.

Former All-Star Danny Granger is expected to make his season debut tonight for the Pacers. He has been out so long that I believe his return will only be a distraction for this team as they try to find ways to fit him in. They have been better off without him up to this point.

The Houston Rockets have played solidly all season and currently sit with a 17-9 record. James Harden is expected to play tonight as he continues to recover from an ankle injury. Houston is 8-1 against the Eastern Conference this season with its only loss coming in overtime in a game in which Harden was sidelined.

The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four Friday games. The Rockets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central Division opponents. Bet Houston Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +7.5

The Utah Jazz are starting to play much better basketball now that they are finally healthy. Trey Burke has been very impressive in his return from a broken finger, and he has led the Jazz to three wins in their last five games overall.

All three of those wins came on the road over Sacramento (122-101) as a 7-point dog, Denver (103-93) as a 10.5-point dog, and Orlando (86-82) as a 3-point dog. The two losses came against the Spurs and Heat, who are arguably the two best teams in the league.

Speaking of the Heat, the Atlanta Hawks are in a huge lookahead spot tonight. They have a game against the defending champion Miami Heat on deck, and they won't be able to help themselves but to look ahead to that game. Their lack of focus will allow the Jazz to not only cover, but possibly win this thing outright.

Atlanta is 1-10 ATS off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the past three seasons. The Hawks are 1-10 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more over the past three years. Atlanta is 13-30 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three season. The Hawks are 3-12 ATS in home games off two or more straight wins over the last two years. The Hawks are simply overvalued in this spot tonight. Roll with the Jazz Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +11

The Miami Heat are in a massive letdown spot Friday. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 97-94 home victory over the Indiana Pacers Wednesday night. They erased a double-digit deficit in the second half to come back and beat their biggest rivals.

Now, I fully expect the Heat to come out flat against the Sacramento Kings Friday night. They won't be mentally locked in enough to win this game by double-digits, which is what it would take to beat us.

Sure, Sacramento hasn't been playing that well, but it does have a 106-91 win over Houston recently. Plus, the Kings are getting used to having Rudy Gay since the big trade. With a few games now under their belts with Gay in the lineup, I look for this team to really take off in the near future.

Last year, Sacramento took Miami to overtime as a 15-point road underdog. I look for this game to go right down to the wire as well for reasons mentioned above. The Kings will never be out of this game, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see them win this game outright.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - after one or more consecutive losses, on Friday nights are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Sacramento is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take the Kings Friday.

20* Bulls/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 193

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between Oklahoma City and Chicago. That has been the case in recent meetings between these teams, and I look for that trend to continue with no Derrick Rose in this one.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series and 7-1 in the last eight meetings. The Bulls and Thunder have combined to score 189 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, averaging 180.3 combined points during this stretch.

Chicago actually matches up pretty well with Oklahoma City. The Bulls have two of the best perimeter defenders in the league in Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler to match up with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook when needed.

These are two of the best teams in the league defensively. The Bulls are giving up just 42.9% shooting, while the Thunder are allowing 42.0% shooting. Chicago ranks 5th in defensive efficiency at 97.7 points per 100 possessions, trailing 4th place Oklahoma City (97.4) in that category.

The Bulls are 20-9 to the UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulls last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 34-16-2 in Bulls last 52 Thursday games. The UNDER is 24-9-2 in Thunder last 35 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Bulls/Rockets ESPN Wednesday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 192

In the second game of a double-header on ESPN, I fully expect a low-scoring, defensive battle between the Chicago Bulls and Houston Rockets tonight. Both teams have been hurt by injuries this season. and those injuries are a big reason why this game will stay UNDER the posted total.

Chicago is without Derrick Rose and could be without point guard Kirk Hinrich, who is listed as questionable. it is scoring just 91.2 points per game on the season and 90.2 on the road. Fortunately, the defense has been dynamite, holding opponents to just 92.4 points per game this year.

The Rockets are expected to be without leading scorer James Harden, who is doubtful with an ankle injury. Also, Jeremy Lin is doubtful with a back injury, meaning that they'll likely be without their two starting guards. I look for them to play at a much slower pace than they normally would because of it, and to try and feed Dwight Howard inside in more half-court sets.

Points are going to be very hard to come by for both teams tonight due to these injuries. Chicago has been forced to play at a slow pace without Rose, ranking 28th in the league at 94.0 possessions per game. It also ranks 28th in offensive efficiency, averaging 95.0 points per 100 possessions. The only thing saving the Bulls is that they rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, limiting opponents to 96.9 points per 100 possessions.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Bulls last six games overall with combined scores of 167, 152, 161, 181, 176 and 165 points. As you can see, they haven't even sniffed this 192-point total recently. The UNDER is 21-7 in Rockets last 28 home games. The UNDER is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 games when playing on 2 days rest. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +2.5

The Phoenix Suns continue to get no respect from the book as a home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs. I'll take advantage once again and back them in a game that I believe they are going to win outright.

Phoenix will be going for its sixth straight win, which would be its longest winning streak since the 2009-10 season. First-year head coach Jeff Hornacek has this team playing unselfish basketball with 10 different players that can beat you on a given night.

The result has been a 14-9 start with league-best 17-5-1 ATS mark. I have almost been more impressed with some of the Suns' losses this season than their wins. Seven of their nine losses have come by eight points or fewer, including road losses to San Antonio (96-99) and Oklahoma City (96-103) as double-digit underdogs.

Now, the Suns will be out for revenge on the Spurs, who are going to be playing without their best player. Tony Parker is expected to miss the next two games with a shin injury. He is the one player that the Spurs simply cannot afford to play without because the offense goes as he goes. They have no business being favored without Parker in the line-up.

Phoenix is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record. These two trends combine for a 13-1 system backing the Suns. Bet Phoenix Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are simply overvalued right now due to their 22-4 start. I faded them last night with success by cashing in the Cavaliers +5 as the Blazers hit their second straight game-winner at the buzzer for a 3-point victory.

Not only does that set the Blazers up for a letdown spot here, it also has them coming in very tired. In fact, this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 4th game in 5 days for Portland. That is one of the toughest situations that a team can be in, and I look for that fatigue to show in Portland's play tonight.

There's no question that Minnesota is a vastly improved team in 2013-14. Kevin Love is healthy and has led the Timberwolves to a respectable 12-13 start. They have played their best basketball at home this season, going 7-4 while outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points per game.

Plays against favorites (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, vs. division opponents are 26-9 (74.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The favorite is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings in this series. The Timberwolves are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss. Minnesota is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games following an ATS loss. Take the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Raptors UNDER 191.5

The books have set the bar too high in this battle between the Charlotte Bobcats and Toronto Raptors tonight. I don't expect either team to reach 96 points in this one, which is what it would take for this game to go over the posted total.

Rudy Gay has been shipped to Sacramento, meaning that Toronto is going to have a transition period to get used to playing without its best scorer. It did fine against Chicago in a 99-77 victory last time out, but that win can be attributed to great defensive play.

Both teams play at extremely slow paces. Charlotte ranks 24th in the league in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Toronto ranks 20th in pace at 96.1 possessions per game. Both rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency as well. Charlotte is 29th at 94.6 points per 100 possessions, while Toronto is 19th at 101.1 points per 100 possessions.

Surprisingly, both teams rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency. Charlotte is 4th in the league, giving up 97.1 points per 100 possessions. Toronto is 11th at 100.9 points per 100 possessions allowed. These teams played in a defensive battle in their first meeting of the season on November 6 as Charlotte won 92-90 at home for 182 combined points. I expect a similar combined points total here.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road blowout win by 20 points or more are 35-11 (76.1%) since 1996. Charlotte is 16-3 to the UNDER in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 8-0 in Bobcats last eight games after giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds in two straight games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Pacers/Heat ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 190.5

As was the case in the first meeting of the season between the Pacers and Heat, the oddsmakers have set the bar too high. The total was set at 191.5 for that game, and the Pacers won by a final of 90-84 for 174 combined points.

These teams are very familiar with one another having played in the Eastern Conference Finals in seven games this past season. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games. The UNDER is now 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 175 or fewer points in each.

Indiana ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 95.6 possessions per game. Miami actually ranks in the bottom half of the league in pace at 18th with 96.6 possessions per game. Indiana ranks 1st in defensive efficiency, giving up 93.6 points per 100 possessions. Miami is 6th in defensive efficiency at 98.5 points per 100 possessions.

The UNDER is 11-1 in Pacers last 12 games when playing on one day of rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 6-0 in Heat last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last four vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. These five trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Cavaliers +5

The Cleveland Cavaliers come into this game playing their best basketball of the season. I look for them to knock off the red-hot Portland Trail Blazers tonight, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Cleveland has won five of its last seven games overall while going 6-1 ATS in the process. Its only losses during this stretch came on the road to Atlanta and Miami, which are two of only three teams with winning records in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs area perfect 4-0 at home during this stretch, beating Chicago, Denver, New York and the Clippers.

Portland is simply overvalued due to its 21-4 start. There's no question they are improved this season, but the Blazers have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to. Plus, this will be their 3rd game in 4 days, while the Cavaliers come in on two days' rest since a 107-114 loss at Miami as a 13-point underdog on Saturday.

Mike Brown is 56-29 ATS after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games in all games he has coached. Terry Stotts is 22-39 ATS off a road win in all games he has coached. The Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Tuesday games. The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Bet Cleveland Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +13

The Miami Heat are in a huge lookahead spot tonight. They have a home meeting with the Indiana Pacers on deck coming up Wednesday on National TV. They are certainly more concerned with getting revenge on the East-leading Pacers after losing to them a week ago than they are in blowing out the Utah Jazz tonight.

Miami has a way of playing down to the level of its competition as it is, and now it has an excuse to do so with the Pacers on deck. The Heat are 0-3 ATS in their last three home games, and they were big favorites in each. They beat Charlotte (99-98) as an 11.5-point favorite and Cleveland (114-107) as a 13-point favorite, while also losing to Detroit (97-107) as a 9-point favorite.

Utah has played its best basketball of the season of late in winning two of its last three games. It crushed both Sacramento (122-101) and Denver (103-93) on the road as a big underdog in each contest for its two victories. Its lone loss came at home to San Antonio. This team has finally gotten healthy with the recent returns of Marvin Williams, Trey Burke and Derrick Favors, and it has made a big difference.

The Jazz have actually won four of their last six meetings with the Heat. Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss. The Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Utah is 19-7 ATS after having lost five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons. Roll with the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +11

The Indiana Pacers are in a huge letdown spot here. They have a game against Miami on deck on Wednesday that will be nationally televised on ESPN. It will be a rematch from their 90-84 win over the defending champs a week ago. They won't be able to help themselves from looking ahead to that game.

Sure, Detroit is playing the second of a back-to-back, but this team will come back motivated off a narrow loss to a very good Portland team last night. They have lost four of their last five coming in and want to stop the bleeding as soon as possible.

The Pistons have been playing their best basketball on the road of late. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five road games with their only loss coming to New Orleans by a final of 106-111 in overtime. That includes roads wins over Miami (107-97), Brooklyn (109-97) and Chicago (92-75) during this stretch.

Plays against home teams (INDIANA) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 110 points or more are 77-39 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Detroit is 10-1 ATS off a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points over the past two seasons. It is winning 105.5 to 96.3 in this spot, or by an average of 9.2 points per game. Take the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns +1

Time and time again the Phoenix Suns have not gotten the respect they deserve from oddsmakers in the early going. That is the case once again Sunday as they are listed as a home underdog to the Golden State Warriors. Once again, I'll take advantage.

Phoenix (13-9) has been the most profitable team at the pay window this season, going a ridiculous 16-5-1 ATS. It is 7-3 at home this year where it is outscoring opponents by 4.9 points per game. First-year head coach Jeff Hornacek has the Suns playing as a team, and the depth that they have allows him to simply play the hot hands throughout the game. This might be the most unselfish team in the game.

Golden State (13-11) has struggled on the road this season, going 6-8 away from home. The Warriors made a great move by signing Andre Iguodala this offseason to give them some perimeter defense and slashing offensively. However, Iguodala has been out since November 23, and his loss isn't getting the attention it deserves. The Warriors have lost eight of their last 13 games overall.

Phoenix is 9-1 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams that make 36% or more of their attempts this season. The Suns are only allowing 32.3% from 3-point range this year. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. Take Phoenix Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are way overvalued due to their 19-4 start to the season. They are coming off a huge win over the Houston Rockets on National TV Thursday, which sets them up for a letdown spot here against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Philadelphia has been very competitive for most of the season, but it has only resulted in a 7-17 record. That record certainly has the 76ers undervalued right now as a double-digit home underdog. I'll take advantage in a game that should go right down to the wire.

Sure, the 76ers have lost five straight games coming in, but four of those losses came by 11 points or less. Those four were against the Nuggets, Clippers, Timberwolves and Raptors, who are all legitimate playoff contenders.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won five straight meetings dating back to 2010. Each of the last six meetings have been decided by single-digits. The 76ers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Plays on home underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 against opponent after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread are 69-36 (65.7%) ATS since 1996. Roll with the 76ers Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -1

The Atlanta Hawks (12-11) are one of only three teams in the Eastern Conference with a winning record this season. They have been underrated all year, and I'll back them as a slim 1-point favorite against the overrated New York Knicks (6-16) tonight.

I didn't expect the Knicks to be very good coming into the season anyway, but the injuries have really put them in a tough spot. Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Amare Stoudemire and Kenyon Martin are all expected to miss this game Saturday.

That leaves the interior of the Knicks extremely vulnerable, and with guys like Al Horford and Paul Millsap, I look for the Hawks to exploit it tonight. They won 110-90 in New York on November 16 in their last meeting and I expect a similar beat down in this one.

Making matters worse for the short-handed Knicks is that they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. Sure, Atlanta is coming off an overtime game last night, but it had two days off before that game, so it will not be tired. This will only be the Hawks' 3rd game in 8 days.

Plays against home teams (NEW YORK) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Atlanta is 22-6 ATS in road games after having won three of its last four games over the past three seasons. Take the Hawks Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing solid value as nearly a double-digit underdog to the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Asking the Spurs to win by 10 or more points to beat us is simply asking too much.

San Antonio is getting way too much respect due to back-to-back blowout road victories over Toronto (116-103) and Milwaukee (109-77), which are two of the worst teams in the league. The Spurs had not played well in three home games prior to that, losing to both Houston (106-112) and Indiana (100-111), while also barely beating Atlanta (102-100).

Minnesota went through a rough stretch there for a while with five losses in a six-game stretch. However, it is back on track after a road win at Detroit (121-94) and a home win over Philadelphia (106-99). I still believe this is one of the most improved teams in the league and one that is fully capable of giving the Spurs a run for their money last night.

We only have to look back to the final two meetings between these teams last season to see that the Timberwolves can hang with the Spurs. The won 108-95 in San Antonio on April 17 as a 9.5-point underdog. They also won 107-83 at home on March 12 as an 8.5-point dog. What's most amazing about those two wins was that they were without their best player in Kevin Love, who deserves MVP consideration this season.

The Timberwolves are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss. Minnesota is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on one days' rest. San Antonio is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 Friday games. The Spurs are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Charlotte Bobcats +12.5

The Indiana Pacers are in a massive letdown spot here. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 90-84 victory over the defending champion Miami Heat. I have no doubt they won't even show up tonight off such a big win. It will have the Bobcats hanging around, possibly pulling off the upset.

Charlotte is noticeably improved this season. It has opened a respectable 10-12 straight up and 13-8-1 against the spread in all games this season. That includes a 4-5 mark on the road where it has gone 7-1-1 against the number.

You only have to look back to the Bobcats' last two road games to find out what they are capable of. They only lost 98-99 at Miami on December 1 as an 11.5-point underdog. They also fell 82-89 on December 3 at Dallas as an 8-point dog in a game that they led most the way.

While Indiana is unlikely to show up off such a big win, Charlotte comes into this game highly motivated. It wants revenge from one of its worst losses of the season, a 74-99 setback at home to these Pacers.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (CHARLOTTE) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, on Friday nights are 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bobcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games. Take Charlotte Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic should be a much heavier favorite tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers. I'll gladly take advantage and back the home team in what I believe will be a blowout in the Magic's favor by game's end.

Cleveland comes in overvalued due to having won four of its last five games overall. However, all four of those wins were at home. Cleveland is one of the worst road teams in the league, going 1-10 straight up and 2-9 ATS while getting outscored by a whopping 13.4 points per game.

Orlando comes in undervalued due to losing six of its last seven. However, it was playing without its best player in Nikola Vucevic in four of those six losses. He came back against Charlotte on Wednesday and provided 12 points and 14 rebounds to lead the Magic to a 92-83 road victory.

Vucevic is averaging 14.6 points and 11.1 boards per game this season, and he's simply irreplaceable on this team. They are a much strong squad with him on the floor. Plus, Tobias Harris could make his season debut tonight, which would only be an added bonus.

Orlando is 25-9 straight up in its last 34 home meetings with Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Cleveland is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games overall. The Magic are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home meetings with the Cavaliers. Bet the Magic Friday.

15* Clippers/Nets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +2.5

The Brooklyn Nets have started to play up to their potential as they've gotten healthy over the last week. They have won back-to-back games for the first time all season with a 90-82 win at Milwaukee, followed by a 104-96 home win over Boston.

The Nets lost the first meeting of this season series with the Clippers in Los Angeles by a final of 103-110. It's amazing they kept it that close considering that Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Deron Williams and Brook Lopez all sat out that game. All four of these guys are back and healthy.

I have been riding the Clippers a lot of late, but now it's time to fade them. This is a brutal spot for them as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th road game in 9 days.

Los Angeles is short-handed, playing without two key players in J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes, which makes the spot even tougher. Meanwhile, the Nets are fresh and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. The Nets have won each of their last five home meetings with the Clippers. Los Angeles is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 meetings in Brooklyn. The home team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take the Nets Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Bucks UNDER 193.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks. They've been forced to because the Spurs have gone OVER the total in five straight games coming into this one, which has created some nice line value to pounce on the UNDER.

That OVER run for the Spurs was aided by solid offensive play from the opposition against much better offenses than the one they will be up against tonight. Milwaukee is one of the worst offensive teams in the league.

The Bucks are tied for 25th in the league in pace at 94.4 possessions per game. Worse yet, they rank dead last in offensive efficiency at 93.3 points per 100 possessions. They'll have a hard time scoring against a San Antonio team that ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.5 points per 100 possessions.

I look for the Bucks to control the pace in this one since they are playing at home, and to slow it down to a snail's pace. Milwaukee is only putting up 87.9 points per game at home this season while going 2-8 straight up and 7-3 to the UNDER. The Spurs are only giving up 92.4 points per game on the road.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games are 44-17 (72.1%) since 1996. The UNDER is 21-9 in Spurs last 30 road games. The UNDER is 7-1 in Bucks last eight games when playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 12-3-2 in Bucks last 17 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of better than 60%. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers were called out by head coach Doc Rivers for pouting after an 82-88 loss at Cleveland a few nights back. They responded well with an 11-point victory at Philadelphia in Monday. Now, I look for them to win by double-digits against the Boston Celtics tonight as well.

Rivers is one of the few head coaches that can get his team to respond by calling them out because they respect him so much. I don't expect it to just be a one game thing. In fact, I look for the Clippers to play some of their best basketball of the season for the remainder of this road trip. Rivers will be returning to the place he coached the past nine years, and it's clear that his players want to make this a special night for him.

"It's one of those things as players we want to rally around him and win this game for him," Blake Griffin said. "It's important when guys come back to their home city or come back to a place where they used to play or coached or whatever it is, it's a good feeling to come back and have a successful trip."

Boston will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days after falling 96-104 in Brooklyn last night. I look for the Clippers, who are coming off a day off, to run the Celtics out of the building tonight due to being the fresher team.

The Clippers are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Boston is 69-102 ATS in its last 171 home games after playing two consecutive road games. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Los Angeles is 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Boston. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 182.5

Both the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat have been decimated by injuries this season. I believe those injuries have certainly hurt both teams a lot more on the offensive end than on defense. As a result, I look for a low-scoring affair between these teams in Chicago tonight.

Chicago is without Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. It is also likely to be without Luol Deng, who is listed as doubtful after missing Saturday's game against Detroit. The Bulls lost that game 75-92 for 167 combined points as they shot just 33.3% from the field. Rose, Deng and Butler are arguably their three best scorers, so you could see how they would struggle offensively without them.

Milwaukee is without several key players as well. Carlos Delfino, Larry Sanders, Caron Butler, Zaza Pachulia and Gary Neal are all expected to miss this game. The losses of Butler and Neal are big because both are scorers. The Bucks shot just 41.1% from the field in an 82-90 home loss to Brooklyn on Saturday.

Both teams love to play at a slow pace. Chicago ranks 26th in the league in pace at 94.6 possessions per game, while Milwaukee is tied with the Bulls at 26th at 94.6 possessions per game as well. Worse yet, the Bucks rank last in the league in offensive efficiency at 93.6 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls haven't been much better, ranking 26th in the league in offensive efficiency at 97.0 points per 100 possessions.

Chicago is 17-4 to the UNDER when playing against a terrible team (winning percentage of 25% or less) over the last three seasons. The Bulls are 10-1 to the UNDER in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or less free throws per game over the last two years. Chicago is 15-5 to the UNDER versus poor offensive teams who score 91 or less points per game over the last three years.

The UNDER is 35-17-2 in Bucks last 53 games when playing on two days' rest. The UNDER is 10-2 in Bulls last 12 games following a double-digit home loss. I look for both teams to continue to struggle offensively in this one given the injuries. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Heat/Pacers Side & Total PARLAY on Indiana ML -144/UNDER 191.5

I am going to back the best team in the league tonight in the Indiana Pacers to take down the defending champion Miami Heat. Instead of laying the three points, I'll just take the Pacers at a generous money line price of -144.

Indiana wants serious revenge after losing in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Heat last year. It will be the much more motivated team because of it, while the Heat will have a hard time getting up for this contest.

The home team has won four straight and eight of the last 10 meetings in this series. Indiana is 28-12 in its last 40 home meetings with Miami. The Pacers are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.9 points per game.

I am backing the UNDER because both teams are solid defensively, and the Eastern Conference Finals was very low scoring. Indiana is the best defensive team in the league, giving up 89.5 points per game overall and 81.8 at home. Miami is allowing 95.9 points per game overall and 93.4 on the road.

Each of the final four games in the playoffs between these teams last year saw 191 or less combined points. They combined for 175, 168, 169 and 191 points in their final four games, respectively. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games, and I fully expect that to be the case here. Plus, both teams will up their intensity level on defense for one of the biggest games of the season.

Indiana is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good pressure defensive teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game over the past two seasons. The Pacers are 16-3 against the money line in all games this season. Indiana is 21-6 against the money line off a road loss over the past two seasons. Bet the Pacers on the Money Line and the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Heat/Pacers Side & Total PARLAY on Indiana ML -144/UNDER 191.5

I am going to back the best team in the league tonight in the Indiana Pacers to take down the defending champion Miami Heat. Instead of laying the three points, I'll just take the Pacers at a generous money line price of -144.

Indiana wants serious revenge after losing in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Heat last year. It will be the much more motivated team because of it, while the Heat will have a hard time getting up for this contest.

The home team has won four straight and eight of the last 10 meetings in this series. Indiana is 28-12 in its last 40 home meetings with Miami. The Pacers are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.9 points per game.

I am backing the UNDER because both teams are solid defensively, and the Eastern Conference Finals was very low scoring. Indiana is the best defensive team in the league, giving up 89.5 points per game overall and 81.8 at home. Miami is allowing 95.9 points per game overall and 93.4 on the road.

Each of the final four games in the playoffs between these teams last year saw 191 or less combined points. They combined for 175, 168, 169 and 191 points in their final four games, respectively. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games, and I fully expect that to be the case here. Plus, both teams will up their intensity level on defense for one of the biggest games of the season.

Indiana is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good pressure defensive teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game over the past two seasons. The Pacers are 16-3 against the money line in all games this season. Indiana is 21-6 against the money line off a road loss over the past two seasons. Bet the Pacers on the Money Line and the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Jazz +7.5

Due to their 17-4 start, the Portland Trail Blazers are now overvalued because the betting public is all over them. Conversely, the Utah Jazz are undervalued due to their 4-18 start, which has the betting public wanting nothing to do with them.

Utah should not be catching 7.5 points at home to Portland tonight. These teams just played on Friday with Portland rolling to a 130-98 home victory over Utah. Everything went right for the Blazers that night as they shot 17-of-23 (73.9%) from 3-point range. Obviously, that's not going to happen again, and Utah will be out for revenge tonight.

That was certainly a rare win for the Blazers in this series considering the Jazz have still won seven of the last nine meetings. Utah is 28-10 straight up in its last 38 home meetings with Portland. I look for the Blazers to suffer a hangover from their 2-point loss to Dallas last time out, and to not show up after having just crushed the Jazz by 32 points three days ago.

The Jazz are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss. Utah is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. It's revenge time for Utah tonight folks. Take the Jazz Monday.

15* Pacers/Thunder NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5

This is a horrible spot for the Indiana Pacers, and I'm going to fade them because of it. Sure, I'm very impressed with their NBA-best 18-2 record this year, but this is simply the time to go the other way.

Indiana will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 8 days. It is coming off a huge 111-100 win at San Antonio last night. That sets the Pacers up for a big letdown spot here.

Making matters worse for the Pacers is that they have a game against the defending champion Miami Heat on deck. That makes this a sandwich game for them off a big win and with an even bigger opponent up next. There's no question Indiana will be looking ahead to that huge showdown as they want revenge on the Heat, who knocked them out in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

Conversely, Indiana will have Oklahoma City's full attention. It is coming on on a days' rest off a 109-95 win at New Orleans on Friday. The Thunder are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the NBA, winning nine of their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming at Portland.

The Thunder are a perfect 9-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 8.6 points per game. The Thunder won both meetings with the Pacers last season, winning 104-93 at home and 97-75 on the road. It's a tough matchup for the Pacers because Paul George is overmatched by Kevin Durant. George is rarely ever overmatched.

The Thunder are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Oklahoma City is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 Sunday games. Indiana is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 Sunday games. Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Mavs/Blazers NBA Saturday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +5

The Portland Trail Blazers are way overvalued right now due to their 17-3 start. They had everything go right for them last night against the lowly Utah Jazz, but now they face a much more formidable opponent in the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

Portland is in a very tough spot here. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days. Meanwhile, Dallas comes in on two days' rest having last played on Wednesday in a 100-97 win at New Orleans. This spot certainly favors the Mavericks rest-wise.

Dallas has owned Portland of late, winning seven of the last nine meetings in this series. In fact, Dallas has not lost to Portland by more than five points in any of their last 13 meetings.

They have nine wins and four losses against the Blazers over that span with their losses coming by 2, 2, 2 and 5 points. That makes for a perfect 12-0-1 system backing Dallas pertaining to tonight's spread of 5. This is just an excellent spot for Dallas, and a terrible one for overvalued Portland. Bet the Mavericks Saturday.

20* Jazz/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +11.5

The Utah Jazz are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog to the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. Portland is overvalued due to its 16-3 start this season and has created expectations for itself that it cannot live up to.

Utah, meanwhile, is undervalued due to its 4-16 start. This team has been playing much better of late due to the healthy return of point guard Trey Burke. In fact, the Jazz have won three of their last five games overall and led Indiana most of the way before having a poor 4th quarter and losing by 9 on Wednesday.

The reigning NCAA player of the year missed the team's first 12 games because of a fractured index finger. He's started the last six and has averaged 33.5 minutes in the past five, putting up 16.2 points and 5.0 assists per game as Utah has gone 3-2. Burke has just two turnovers over the last four games while the Jazz have averaged 13.0, compared to 17.8 through their first 16 games.

Portland is in a huge letdown spot here. It is coming off back-to-back home wins over two of the best teams in the NBA in Indiana (106-102) and Oklahoma City (111-104). It will have a hard time getting up to play one of the worst teams in the league in the Jazz tonight. I'm not saying the Blazers' start is a complete fluke, but they certainly are overvalued because of it.

The Jazz have won seven of their last eight meetings with the Blazers overall. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, on Friday nights are 73-32 (69.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. The Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in Portland. Bet Utah Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -3.5

The Phoenix Suns continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They should be a bigger home favorite tonight over the Toronto Raptors, but I'll take advantage since they just continue to fly under the radar.

Phoenix has opened 10-9 this season with impressive wins along the way. More impressive, though is the fact that seven of their nine losses have come by 8 points or fewer. So, this team has essentially been in just about every game this season.

Toronto is just 6-11 this season and has really struggled of late. It has lost four straight heading into this one, giving up 102 or more points in three of the four losses. This is a team that relies too heavily on Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan to carry the scoring load, while Phoenix is a team that goes about 10 deep and gets its scoring from different places night in and night out.

The Suns have won 14 of their last 17 meetings with the Raptors. Phoenix is 12-3 ATS versus poor shooting teams that make 43% or less of their shots over the past two seasons. The Suns are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest. Phoenix is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games overall. Roll with the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +4.5

The Boston Celtics have quietly played some very good basketball in the early going under head coach Brad Stevens. They currently sit atop the Atlantic Division with an 8-12 record in the watered-down Eastern Conference.

The Celtics have won four of their last six games overall, which includes road wins over Atlanta (94-87) and Charlotte (96-86), as well as home wins over Cleveland (103-86) and Milwaukee (108-100). This team remains undervalued despite a respectable start to the season under Stevens.

Denver is way overvalued right now due to winning seven of its last eight games overall. It had a seven-game winning streak snapped as a 3.5-point favorite at Cleveland on Wednesday, losing by a final of 88-98. This road trip has started to take its toll on the Nuggets as this will be their sixth road game in their past seven contests.

The Nuggets are a notorious terrible road team over the year, and a great home team. That's why I'll look to fade them almost any time they are a road favorite. Plus, the Celtics are 32-7 all-time at home against the Nuggets, winning the last three while averaging 112.0 points per game.

Boston is 14-3 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams who allow 99 or more points per game over the past two seasons. The Nuggets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings in this series. Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Denver. Take the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Clippers ML +105

At some point, you have to stand up for yourself. The Los Angeles Clippers were knocked out of the playoffs by the Memphis Grizzlies last season. They had their chance for revenge on November 18, but lost at home to the Grizzlies by a final of 102-106. I don't expect them to squander a second opportunity for revenge tonight.

Memphis is in a world of hurt right now. It is without its best player in Marc Gasol (knee), while Zach Randolph is questionable to play tonight after missing the past couple games with a toe injury. Gasol and Randolph combined for 49 points and 24 rebounds in the first meeting of the season between these teams.

The Clippers have won three of their last four regular-season trips to Memphis. They certainly do not want to lose a third straight games overall after falling to the Pacers and Hawks to begin December. I look for them to rally around Chris Paul and to take advantage of the absence of Gasol, and possibly Randolph, tonight.

The Clippers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest. The Grizzlies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Clippers Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +9

The Utah Jazz hit rock bottom when they started 1-14. Oddsmakers had to adjust their power ratings for the Jazz to an all-time low because of that start. As a result, this team has been showing a ton of value of late and will be going forward.

The Jazz have won three of their last four games overall while going 3-1 ATS in the process. That includes home wins over both Chicago (89-83) and Houston (109-103), as well as a road win at Phoenix (112-104). A big reason for this resurgence has been the debut of rookie point guard Trey Burke, who has been a playmaker in the early going.

Indiana's stock could not be bigger due to its 16-1 start to the season. As a result, oddsmakers have had to adjust their power ratings for the Pacers to an all-time high. This will create value in fading Indiana going forward, and that was evident in its 102-106 loss at Portland last time out when it was actually a favorite in that game.

With games against San Antonio and Oklahoma City on deck, this could be a huge letdown spot for Indiana. I look for the Pacers to be overlooking the Jazz enough to let Utah cover, and possibly win this game outright.

The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Utah is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Utah has won six straight home meetings with Indiana dating back to 2007. It hasn't lost at home against the Pacers since 2005. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +10.5

The Phoenix Suns are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog to the Houston Rockets tonight. They blew a big first-half lead against the Grizzlies to lose last night, but since they had two days' rest coming into that game and are very deep, they will be plenty fresh tonight.

The Suns are still one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They are off to a 9-9 start with seven of their losses coming by 8 points or fewer. They have proven they can play with anybody as evidenced by their narrow road losses to Oklahoma City (96-103), San Antonio (96-99) and Portland (89-90).

Houston isn't the healthiest of teams right now. Starting point guard Jeremy Lin, who was off to a tremendous start this season, is sidelined by a knee injury. Starting forward Chandler Parsons is questionable to play tonight as he nurses a back injury.

Phoenix is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss. The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Phoenix is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Suns are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 meetings with the Rockets, including 19-5 ATS in their last 24 meetings in Houston. Take Phoenix Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -8

The Dallas Mavericks have lost four of their last five games coming into this one. They'll clearly be motivated for a victory tonight against the Charlotte Bobcats, which is a team they have dominated throughout the years.

"We're going to learn about our team right now," coach Rick Carlisle said. "Lose four out of five, have a tough loss like last night and then another tough one like tonight - it's going to test the togetherness and the collective will."

Charlotte, meanwhile, is in a huge letdown spot off a tough 98-99 loss at the defending champion Miami Heat last time out. I look for the Bobcats to suffer a hangover from that loss because they led most of the way before having the game taken away from them down the stretch.

Dallas had gone 16-0 against Charlotte before losing in overtime on the road last November. The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 at home against the Bobcats, limiting them to just 90.4 points on 42.1 percent shooting in the process. Dallas has won all nine games by an average of 13 points per game.

The Mavericks are 8-2 at home this season where they are scoring an average of 108.5 points per game. Charlotte is scoring just 89.2 points per game overall and 89.9 points per game on the road this year. The Bobcats are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. Western Conference opponents. Dallas is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +3.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have no business being favored tonight against the Phoenix Suns. I fully expect the Suns to win outright, but I'll simply take the points for some insurance.

Phoenix is the most underrated team in the league in 2013. It is off to a 9-8 start that could easily have been better. Seven of its eight losses have come by 8 points or less, including four by 3 points or fewer.

Memphis is expected to be without its two best players tonight. Marc Gasol (16.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) is out with a knee injury, while Zach Randolph (16.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg) is listed as doubtful with a toe injury.

The loss of Randolph is huge considering he is averaging 22.7 points and 12.5 rebounds while shooting 57.6 percent from the field in his last 16 games versus Phoenix. Meanwhile, the Suns just recently returned Eric Bledsoe, so they are back to close to full strength.

Phoenix is 10-1 ATS as an underdog this season. The Suns are 8-1 ATS in road games this year. The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS loss. The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing Phoenix. Roll with the Suns Tuesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -3.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing tremendous value as only a 3.5-point home favorite over the Orlando Magic tonight. Philadelphia will be highly motivated to end a four-game losing streak overall, which included a 94-105 loss at Orlando on November 27, so the 76ers will be out for revenge as well.

Orlando is expected to be without its best player in Nikola Vucevic, who is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. Vucevic is averaging 14.7 points and 10.9 rebounds per game this season and is simply irreplaceable. Not to mention both Jameer Nelson (foot) and Tobias Harris (ankle) are doubtful for the Magic as well.

Philadelphia is a respectable 5-5 at home this season, while Orlando is just 1-6 on the road. The Magic are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The 76ers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Take the 76ers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Spurs UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs. I fully expect a defensive battle as each team tries to bounce back from a loss and a poor defensive performance.

You know that Greg Popovich is going to preach defense following his team's 106-112 loss to the Houston Rockets on Saturday. The same can be said for the Hawks, who fell 101-108 at Washington on Saturday. Neither team is satisfied with their efforts defensively coming into this one.

That's especially the case for San Antonio, which is only giving up 91.6 points per game on 42.8% shooting this season. The Spurs rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 93.2 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta is a respectable 12th in defensive efficiency (101.5).

Both Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver are questionable for Atlanta heading into this one. It would be a big blow to their offense if either player is sidelined, but I'm still going to be on the UNDER regardless. That would just be an added bonus if one or both sits.

Each of the last four meetings between San Antonio and Atlanta have seen 196 or fewer combined points (196, 191, 188, 187). The UNDER is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Atlanta is 9-1 to the UNDER versus very good shooting teams who make 48% of their shots or more over the past two seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +9

This is a huge letdown spot for Oklahoma City, which is coming off its overtime victory over the Golden State Warriors on Friday. Russell Westbrook nailed a 3-pointer with 0.1 seconds left in the extra session to beat the Warriors. Off such a big, thrilling win, I look for the Thunder to come back unmotivated today.

Motivation will not be problem for the Timberwolves, who have lost five of their last seven coming in. This is a business trip for Minnesota, which won at Dallas last night by a final of 112-106. I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see this team pull off the upset tonight as well, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

Oklahoma City is 13-29 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996. It is coming back to lose 100.0 to 102.6 in this spot. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Cavaliers UNDER 182

The Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers will take part in a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. I look for a similar combined score to the 96-81 victory Chicago handed Cleveland in their first meeting of the season, when Derrick Rose was healthy.

The Bulls have been atrocious offensively without Rose, scoring just 82, 83 and 99 points in their last three games overall. They are also without Jimmy Butler, which gets overlooked because of his ability to stretch the floor and break down a defense from time to time.

Both Cleveland and Chicago like to slow down the tempo. The Bulls rank 23rd int he league in pace at 95.6 possessions per game, while the Cavs are 14th at 97.3 possessions per game. Cleveland is 28th in offensive efficiency at 92.6 points per 100 possessions, while Chicago is 26th at 96.0 points per 100 possessions.

Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or less over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 8-1 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. The UNDER is 7-1 in Cavaliers last eight home games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +10.5

The Indiana Pacers are way overvalued right now due to their 14-1 start. There's no question this is one of the best teams in the league, but they have taken advantage of a very easy schedule thus far, and should not be laying double-digits to Washington tonight.

Indiana has only faced one team this season that currently has a winning record, and that was Memphis (8-7). With with biggest game of the season against the Los Angeles Clippers on deck, this could certainly be a lookahead spot for the Pacers.

Quietly, the Washington Wizards have won three straight and five of their last six games overall heading into this one. They are undervalued right now due to a poor start to the season, with road losses to the likes of the Heat, Thunder, Mavericks and Spurs, who are four of the best teams in the NBA. There's no question that Washington is better than its 7-8 record would indicate, while Indiana is nowhere near as good as its 14-1 mark.

These teams met four times last season with Indiana winning three of them by 4, 7 and 8 points. Washington won the other by a final of 104-85 at home as a 4-point dog in their final meeting of the season, which is when John Wall was actually healthy, and he led the way with 37 points. Wall miss the other three meetings, and the Wizards still hung tough and lost all three by 8 points or fewer.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, on Friday nights are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Wizards are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take the Wizards Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Mavericks OVER 202

The books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks tonight. I'll take advantage by backing the OVER in what I believe will be an absolute shootout with each team topping the 100-point mark.

The reason this total has been set so low is because both Dallas and Atlanta have been going UNDER the total a lot recently. In fact, The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavs last four games overall, while the UNDER is 6-1 in the Hawks last seven. However, these recent trends have provided us with a ton of value to back the OVER.

Dallas beat Atlanta by a final of 118-109 in the season opener for 227 combined points. I expect a similar result tonight. The OVER is now 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. In the last three meetings, they have combined for 227, 240 and 206 points, respectively.

Both teams like to push the tempo, which will create the perfect storm for a high-scoring affair tonight. Dallas ranks 7th in the league in pace at 99.4 possessions per game, while Atlanta ranks 11th in pace at 98.2 possessions per contest. The Mavericks are also 5th in the league in offensive efficiency at 106.2 points per 100 possessions, while Atlanta is 15th at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.

Dallas is 27-10 to the OVER in road games after four or more consecutive unders since 1996. The OVER is 20-5-1 in Mavericks last 26 games vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The OVER is 21-9 in Hawks last 30 Friday games. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavaliers/Celtics UNDER 189

The books have set the number way too high in this contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER as do not expect either team to reach 95 points in this one, which is what it would take to go over the total.

These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league as the Cavs are scoring 92.6 points per game on 41.8% shooting, while the Celtics are scoring 92.9 points per game on 44.3% shooting. Neither team really like to push the tempo, either.

Both ranks in the middle of the pack in pace as Cleveland is 15th at 97.0 possessions per game, while Boston is 18th at 96.6 possessions per game. The key here is that neither team has been able to do much with those possessions. Cleveland ranks 27th in offensive efficiency at 93.4 points per 100 possessions, while Boston is 26th at 95.6 points per 100 possessions.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with combined scores of 188, 185 and 185 points. In fact, the Celtics and Cavaliers have combined for 188 or less points in six of their last seven meetings overall.

Boston is 19-6 to the UNDER vs. poor passing teams who average 20 or less assists per game over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 8-1 in Cavaliers last nine Friday games. The UNDER is 12-2 in Cavaliers last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. The UNDER is 21-8 in Cavs last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The UNDER is 8-1 in Celtics last nine vs. NBA Central Division foes. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 211.5

I look for a shootout tonight between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. That was certainly the case when these teams got together for the first time this season on November 15. Denver beat Minnesota 117-113 for a combined score of 230, which is roughly 19 points more than tonight's posted total of 211.5.

In that first meeting, both teams ignored the shot clock and simply got the ball up as quickly as they could. Minnesota hoisted up a ridiculous 97 shots, while Denver wasn't far behind with 94 shots. There wasn't much defense being played, either, as both teams got good looks. The Timberwolves shot 48.9% from the floor, while the Nuggets shot 48.5%.

The reason I expect a similar result tonight is because both teams play at very fast paces. In fact, the Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league in pace at 101.9 possessions per game, while the Nuggets are a close 3rd in pace at 100.9 possession per contest. When you get two teams that like to play at fast paces together, it creates a perfect storm, making for a great opportunity to back the OVER.

Denver is 33-16 to the OVER as a road underdog over the past three seasons. The OVER is 16-7-1 in Nuggets last 24 road games overall. The OVER is 35-15-2 in Nuggets last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The OVER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams played in Minnesota. We have seen combined scores of 213, 195, 233 and 217 points in the last four meetings in Minnesota. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Thunder Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City -2.5

The San Antonio Spurs are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight due to their 11-game winning streak coming into this one. A closer look at the streak shows that it has come against soft competition.

Only two of the 11 wins have come against teams with winning records, and those were against Denver (7-6) and Golden State (9-6). The game against the Nuggets was the first game of the steak back when Denver was really struggling early in the year. The win over the Warriors game by a final of 76-74 when Golden State was playing without its best player in Stephen Curry.

Oklahoma City has been a much tougher team since the return of Russell Westbrook. It has won eight of its past 10 games overall with its only losses coming on the road against the Clippers (103-111) and Warriors (115-116). Now, Westbrook has had five days off after sitting out the Thunder's 95-73 home win over Utah on November 24 in their last game. Coach Mark Brooks picked a perfect spot to give his knee some rest, and he'll be ready to go tonight because of it.

Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.0 points per game. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Spurs and Thunder. The home team has won 13 of the past 15 meetings in this series. The Thunder are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with San Antonio, winning all five games by 6 points or more. Take Oklahoma City Wednesday.

15* Heat/Cavaliers ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Cleveland +9

The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing tremendous value as a big home underdog to the Miami Heat Wednesday night. They have had three full days off since their ugly 96-126 loss at San Antonio, which is a defeat that is stuck in the betting public's minds, which is also why this line has been inflated.

Another reason for the inflation is the fact that Miami enters this contest on a 7-game winning streak. A closer look at the streak shows that the Heat have only beaten two teams with winning records during this run. Miami has a way of playing down to its competition, and that has certainly been the case when meeting up with the Cavaliers of late.

In fact, all four meetings between the Cavaliers and Heat last season were decided by 4 points or less. Miami won 110-108 and 109-105 at home, as well as 98-95 and 96-95 on the road. After coming so close to beating the Heat last season, you can bet the Cavaliers are hungry to get over the hump pull off the upset in their first meeting of the 2013-14 campaign.

Plays against favorites (MIAMI) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Miami is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when laying on three or more days of rest. Roll with the Cavaliers Wednesday.

20* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers +4.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are in a great spot tonight. They come in on three days' rest, so they'll certainly be ready to go having last played on Saturday. They'll be up against an Orlando team that will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days.

The 76ers have been underrated all season. They have opened the season 6-9 straight up and 9-6 against the spread, sporting one of the league's top scoring offenses at 103.7 points per game. Evan Turner (21.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg), Michael Carter-Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.4 apg, 5.7 rpg, 3.0 spg) and Spencer Hawes (16.8 ppg, 10.3 rpg) lead six 76ers who are averaging in double figures scoring this season.

Orlando is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after its upset victory over Atlanta last night. That certainly sets the Magic up for a letdown spot here, and playing their 4th game in 5 days, they certainly won't be able to match the intensity level of the 76ers, who love to push the tempo. In fact, Philadelphia ranks 1st in the league in pace, and it will wear down Orlando tonight.

I'm not a huge trends guy, but one of the best ones I have come across all season is that Jacque Vaughn is 1-14 against the spread as a favorite as the coach of Orlando. This team cannot be trusted in the role of the favorite, especially in such a tough situation like tonight's spot. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Pelicans OVER 204

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Golden State Warriors and New Orleans Pelicans. I look for a shootout between these teams given the circumstances tonight.

Golden State will be without its two best defenders in center Andrew Bogut and small forward Andre Iguodala. I fully expect the Pelicans to take advantage and put up a big number offensively in this one.

The Pelicans have been playing in several high-scoring games since getting back stretch big man Ryan Anderson, who is second on the team in scoring (18.8 ppg). They feature six players who are averaging double-digits in points this season and will be a force to be wreckoned with offensively now that Anderson is back.

In fact, the Pelicans are averaging 108.4 points per game and giving up 103.8 points per game in their last five contests overall. They are combining with their opponents for an average of 212.2 points per game during this stretch.

Both teams like to go up-tempo. Golden State ranks 9th in the league in pace at 99.0 possessions per game, while New Orleans is 13th in the league in pace at 97.3 possessions per contest. I look for that pace to be increased even more now that the Warriors are without their top two defenders in Iguodala and Bogut.

New Orleans is 14-3 to the OVER when playing four or less games in 10 days over the past three seasons. The OVER is 5-1 in Warriors last six games when playing on two days' rest. The OVER is 6-0 in Pelicans last six games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in New Orleans. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Raptors UNDER 191

The Brooklyn Nets are in a world of hurt right now offensively. They are without two of their best players in Brook Lopez and Deron Williams, which will make points very hard to come by until they return. The Nets are already only averaging 95.4 points per game overall and 93.6 on the road. In their last three games, the Nets are only averaging 89.7 ppg.

Both Toronto and Brooklyn like to play at slow paces. Toronto ranks 25th in the league in pace at 95.2 possessions per game, while Brooklyn is 21st in pace at 96.0 possessions per contest. I look for the Raptors to control the pace in this one playing at home and keep is at a snail's pace.

That has been the case in recent meetings between the Nets and Raptors played in Toronto. They have combined for 180, 182, 165, and 182 points in their last four meetings in Toronto, all of which have gone UNDER the total. That's an average of 177.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto. The UNDER is 25-9 in Nets last 34 games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 24-11 in Raptors last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Brooklyn is 15-2 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the past three seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans +10

The San Antonio Spurs are getting too much respect from the books tonight due to their 12-1 start, which includes a 126-96 home victory over Cleveland last time out. The public perception of this team is as high as it's going to get this season, and now is the time to fade the Spurs because of it.

New Orleans still has a pretty low public perception due to its mediocre 6-6 record on the season. However, it has been playing its best basketball of late, winning three straight coming into this one. A big reason for the Pelicans' resurgence has been the return of stretch big man Ryan Anderson, who is averaging 19.3 points and shooting 61.9% from 3-points range in his past three contests. Now, they will be playing on two days' rest since their 104-100 victory over Cleveland on Friday.

This is a big lookahead spot for San Antonio, which will travel to face Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Overlooking the Pelicans has been nothing new for the Spurs as this has been a very closely-contested series. All four meetings between the Spurs and Pelicans last year were decided by 7 points or less with New Orleans going a perfect 4-0 ATS. They only lost 102-106 and 94-99 in their two trips to San Antonio last season, and they were nowhere near as talented last year as they are in 2013-14.

Plays against home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - horrible foul drawing team - attempting <=21 free throws/game, in November games are 73-27 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday games. San Antonio is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5.5

This is a home-and-home situation between the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets. After losing in Denver 100-102 on Saturday, I fully expect the Mavericks to get their revenge in blowout fashion at home tonight.

Dallas is a perfect 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread at home this season. It is outscoring opponents 111.4 to 102.0 at home this season, or by an average of 9.4 points per game. Denver is 1-4 on the road this year, giving up 104.4 points per contest away from home.

The Nuggets are 24-47 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams that are scoring 103 or more points per game since 1996. The Mavericks are 26-10 ATS versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game over the past two seasons.

Dallas is 10-1 ATS after allowing 60 or more points in the first half of last game over the past two seasons. The Mavericks are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 games following a loss. The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +12

The Phoenix Suns are the most underrated team in the entire league. This is just another prime example of that as the Suns are catching double-digits against the Miami Heat, who are notorious for playing to the level of their competition. I have no doubt Miami will take Phoenix too lightly tonight, just as about every other team in the league has this season.

Phoenix is 7-6 this season and has been competitive in almost all of its losses. In fact, all six of its losses have come by 7 points or less, including four by 3 points or fewer. That includes impressive road losses at Oklahoma City (96-103), San Antonio (96-99) and Portland (89-90), which are three of the best teams in the league.

Jeff Hornacek is doing a tremendous job of getting Phoenix to play together as a team. These guys absolutely love playing together, because they share the basketball so well. Miami is overvalued due to its six-game winning streak coming in, which includes an unimpressive 101-99 home victory over Orlando last time out.

Hornacek is a perfect 9-0 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Phoenix. Eric Spoelstra is 30-47 ATS as a favorite over 10 or more points as the coach of Miami. The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Roll with the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves +7

The Indiana Pacers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers right now due to their 12-1 start. There's no question this is one of the best teams in the league, but the Pacers have benefited from an easy schedule more than anything.

Indeed, only two of Indiana's 12 wins have come against teams with winning records. Those were against Chicago (6-5) and Memphis (6-5), who are both down from last season.

Minnesota is 8-7 this season against a brutal schedule. Only two of its seven losses have come against teams with losing records, and those were against Cleveland (92-93) and Washington (100-104) by a combined 5 points. The Timberwolves have only lost two games all season by more than 4 points.

Plays against home favorites (INDIANA) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 30-4 (88.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Timberwolves are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet Minnesota Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Clippers UNDER 194.5

The Chicago Bulls are in a world of hurt right now offensively. They are without two of their top four scorers in Derrick Rose (15.9 ppg) and Jimmy Butler (11.2 ppg). Rose tore his meniscus, while Butler is out for at least another couple weeks with a toe injury. The offense is going to really struggle for a while without these two.

Los Angeles is a very tired team right now. The Clippers will be playing the dreaded 4 games in 5 days situation Sunday, and they'll really be tired considering this is an afternoon game. That fatigue will hurt them more on offense than it will on defense. Los Angeles will not be looking to push the tempo because it will be too tired to do so. This will be a half-court game and I expect both teams to struggle shooting the basketball today.

Chicago's strength is its defense, which is giving up just 90.5 points per game on 40.4% shooting this season. The Bulls rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 93.6 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls already played at a slow pace, ranking 19th in the league with 96.6 possessions per game. That pace will certainly get slower in their first game without Rose this season. He's basically the only one on their team capable of running the fast break, which was already a rare occurrence for the Bulls.

These teams played twice last season in low-scoring affairs, both of which came without Rose as well. Los Angeles beat Chicago 101-80 at home on November 17, 2012 for 181 combined points. The Clippers also won on the road on December 11, 2012 by a final of 94-89 for 183 combined points. I look for a similar low-scoring affair this time around as well as these teams don't combine to sniff 190 points, let alone 194.5.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, on Sunday games are 44-19 (69.8%) over the last five seasons. Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER versus teams who average 9 or more steals per game over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 7-3 in Clippers last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +13.5

This is a home-and-home situation for the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic. Miami won the first meeting in Orlando on November 20 by a final of 120-92. Now, they'll have a rematch Saturday night just three days later after each team has had the past two days off.

It's usually a good idea to back the team that lost the first game of a home-and-home situation. That's because the team that lost the first game is obviously motivated for revenge, while the team that one can easily become disinterested after already beating their opponent a few nights earlier.

I believe this is certainly one of those good situations to back the Game 1 loser. Miami is coming off back-to-back championships, and it already has a hard time being motivated during the regular season. There's no way the Heat even show up for this game Saturday, and that's why Orlando will easily be able to stay within this inflated number with a chance to win it in the end.

It's obvious that there is value here with the Magic. They were a 7-point home underdog in their first meeting with the Heat on November 20. Now, they are catching 13.5 points in the rematch. Home-court advantage has meant little when these teams have gotten together in the recent past. The road team is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.

Another reason this line has been inflated is the fact that the Magic have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games overall. Meanwhile, the Heat have covered the spread in in three straight coming in. These two trends have forced oddsmakers to set the number much higher than it should be.

Plays against home favorites (MIAMI) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 28-4 (87.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Heat are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Celtics UNDER 186

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics. I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle tonight when these teams square off inside TD Garden Friday.

Indiana ranks 24th in the league in pace at 95.3 possessions per game. It also ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 90.5 points per 100 possessions. With its ability to defend and play a half-court style, Indiana dictates tempo in almost every game it plays.

The Pacers are scoring 96.4 points and allowing 87.2 points per game this season, combining with their opponents to average 183.6 points per game. It is only allowing foes to shoot 39.5% from the floor. Boston, which is scoring just 93.4 points per game, will have a hard time finding the basket tonight.

This has been a very low-scoring series between the Pacers and Celtics in years' past, and with defensive-minded Brad Stevens as Boston's new coach, I believe that will continue. The Pacers and Celtics have combined for 164, 169, 158, 181, 180 and 161 points in their last six meetings, respectively. They are combining to average 168.8 points per game during this span, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 186.

The UNDER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Pacers last five games when playing on 1 days rest. the UNDER is 10-2 in Pacers last 12 games following a win. The UNDER is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 vs. NBA Central Division opponents. The UNDER is 13-6 in Celtics last 19 games overall. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +2

The Phoenix Suns are the single-most underrated team in the league in 2013. They have opened 5-6 this season and are off four straight losses, which will have them very hungry for a victory. A closer look into their defeats really shows how close this is to being an 11-0 team right now.

All six of the Suns' losses have come by 7 points or less this season, including four by 3 points or fewer. Three of those losses came on the road to three of the best teams in the league in the Thunder, Spurs and Blazers. This team isn't getting the respect it deserves, and it should not be an underdog here.

Phoenix has played its last two games without its best player in Eric Bledsoe. Well, Bledsoe is expected to return tonight from a bruised shin, and I believe it's going to make the difference. He is averaging 20.4 points, 6.8 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. What is most amazing about the Suns start is that Bledsoe and Goran Dragic have played complete games together in just two of the last nine contests.

15* Clippers/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 211

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Clippers and Thunder. This will be their second meeting in eight days having last played on November 13 in a 111-103 home victory for the Clippers and 214 combined points.

In that game, the total was set at 209.5. As you can see, oddsmakers have adjusted this total up to 211. That has created some line value on the UNDER. Plus, when teams are familiar with one another having recently played, it usually tends to lead to a lower-scoring game the second time around. And, being a National TV game tonight, the defensive intensity will be upped a bit as well.

Los Angeles has played in much lower-scoring games on the road this season than it has at home. The Clippers are scoring 101.5 points and allowing 101.5 points on the road this season, combining with their opponents for an average of 203 points per game. Oklahoma City is scoring 107.7 points and allowing 101.7 points at home, combining with their opponents for roughly 209 points per game. As you can see, both totals are lower than tonight's total of 211, creating some line value.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, first half of the season are 135-70 (65.9%) to the UNDER over the last five seasons. Oklahoma City is 26-12 to the UNDER in home games when playing on two days of rest since 1996. The UNDER is 24-8 in Clippers last 32 Thursday games. The UNDER is 19-6-2 in Thunder last 27 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Spurs UNDER 192

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs. Neither team is lighting it up offensively this season, and both have been solid on the defensive end, especially the Spurs.

Boston is averaging just 93.4 points per game on the season, including 89.6 points on 41.8% shooting in road games. San Antonio is scoring just 92.0 points per game at home this year. The Spurs have been excellent on the other end, giving up just 89.3 points overall and 85.7 at home. They rank second in the league in defensive efficiency.

Boston is 8-4 to the UNDER in all games this season. San Antonio is 6-1 to the UNDER in its last seven games overall. The Spurs' last two contests have been extremely low scoring with a 92-79 home win over Washington, and a 91-82 triumph at Utah. As this team continues to age, I look for them to play in more lower scoring games in 2013-14.

San Antonio is 9-1 to the UNDER versus poor ball handling teams - committing >=16 turnovers/game over the last two seasons. Boston is 17-6 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Celtics last 10 road games. The UNDER is 30-12-2 in Spurs last 44 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Bucks UNDER 196

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Portland Trail Blazers and Milwaukee Bucks. Both teams play at below-average league paces, especially Milwaukee, which should control the tempo playing at home tonight.

The Bucks rank 25th in the league in pace at 94.9 possessions per game. The Blazers are 18th in pace at 96.4 possessions per contest. Milwaukee has been one of the worst offensive teams in the league to boot, scoring just 90.2 points per game on 41.4% shooting. This is honestly one of the worst rosters in the league.

Milwaukee has been even worse offensively of late,scoring an average of 85.0 points per game over its last five contests on 38.5% shooting. Portland has played three straight high-scoring games, which is why I believe this total has been inflated as it is coming off three straight OVERS.

Portland is 31-15 to the UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in three straight games since 1996. The Blazers are 31-17 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 or more points over the past three seasons. The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Bucks last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Pacers/Knicks ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana -6

The Indiana Pacers (9-1) have been the best team in the league to open 2013-14. Off their first loss of the season at Chicago, and with three days of rest in between games having last played on Saturday, I fully expect the Pacers to bounce back with a blowout victory at New York tonight.

The hapless Knicks have opened 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in 2013-14. I expected this team to take a big step back this year with the poor moves they made in the offseason, and that has proven to be the case. Now, injuries have really taken their toll.

The Knicks are without Tyson Chandler, and both Raymond Felton and Metta World Peace are doubtful to play tonight. That leaves an already poor roster very thin going forward. Plus, this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Knicks after falling 86-92 at Detroit last night for their third straight defeat, and seventh loss in nine games.

Indiana is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games following a road loss. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. loss. Indiana is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. The Knicks are 0-6 ATS in all home games this season. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Indiana. Take the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Wizards OVER 205

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Washington Wizards. I look for an absolute shootout for four quarters as the final combined score of this one sails way OVER the number.

Minnesota ranks 1st in the league in pace at 102.6 possessions per game. It is also 10th in the league in offensive efficiency at 103.5 points per 100 possessions. Washington likes to play at a fast tempo as well, making for the perfect storm. The Wizards rank 12th in the league in pace at 98.9 possessions per game.

The Timberwolves are putting up 108.5 points per game on the season. Washington has been solid offensively as well, averaging 100.0 points per game. Neither team has played well on the other end. The Timberwolves are giving up 100.2 points per game, while the Wizards are yielding 104.6 points per contest.

Washington is 9-1 to the OVER in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last two seasons. Minnesota is a perfect 10-0 to the OVER off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons. Washington is 10-1 to the OVER in home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Grizzlies/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -8.5

The Los Angeles Clippers want revenge in a big way tonight as they host the Memphis Grizzlies. They were knocked out of the playoffs by the Grizzlies last season, but that was largely aided by an injury to Blake Griffin. It's payback time tonight ladies and gents.

The Clippers have looked very sharp of late, winning seven of their last nine games overall while going 6-3 ATS in the process. Offensively, they cannot be stopped, averaging 110.0 points per game on 48.6% shooting. The Clippers are 5-0 at home this year, putting up a ridiculous 118.6 points per game.

Memphis is clearly down this season, opening 5-5 while continuing to struggle offensively. It is averaging just 94.3 points per game overall, including 91.6 on the road where it is 2-3 on the year. This is a very tough spot for the Grizzlies to boot. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Grizzlies are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The home team has won five of the past six meetings with four of those victories coming by double-digits. Roll with the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +9

This is a home-and-home situation for the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors. These teams just played at Golden State Saturday night with the Warriors coming away with a 102-88 home victory. I look for the Jazz to return the favor two nights later and to easily stay within this 9-point spread with an excellent chance to pull off the upset.

Utah has been playing much better of late after a horrendous start. It has gone 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall, beating New Orleans 111-105 as a 2.5-point home underdog in the process. It also stayed within its 10-point spread against San Antonio in a 9-point loss.

There's no question that the Jazz are going to be the more motivated team heading into this one. I normally look to back the team that lost the first game in a home-and-home situation, especially if their loss was on the road in the first game. The oddsmakers giving us 9 points to back a team in revenge mode in this situation is simply a gift.

Utah has won four of its last six meetings with Golden State. The Warriors are just 2-3 on the road this season after going 19-22 on the road last year. Golden State is 3-13 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins over the last three seasons. Utah is 9-1 ATS in home games after having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take the Jazz Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Kings UNDER 189.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings both play at extremely slow paces. As a result, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle when these teams square off Sunday.

Memphis ranks 27th in the league in pace at 94.5 possessions per game. Sacramento is tied with Memphis for 27th, also averaging 94.5 possessions per contest.

Making matters worse for both teams is that neither has been efficient offensively this year. Sacramento is 20th in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging just 99.0 points per 100 possessions. Memphis is even worse, ranking 24th in offensive efficiency at 97.5 points per 100 possessions.

The Grizzlies are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-7 to the UNDER off a road win over the last two years. The UNDER is 17-8 in Grizzlies last 25 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 18-7-2 in Kings last 27 games following a ATS loss. Bet the UNDER in this game.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cavaliers/Wizards UNDER 196

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards are two of the most inept offensive teams in the league in 2013-14. They both rank right in the middle of the pack in terms of pace with Washington 12th at 99.2 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 14th with 97.1 possessions per game.

Neither team has been very efficient offensively this season. Washington ranks 20th in offensive efficiency with 99.0 points per 100 possessions, while Cleveland is a woeful 29th in offensive efficiency at 92.0 points per 100 possessions. Only Utah has been worse.

Looking at recent meetings between Washington and Cleveland, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these teams. Each of the last five meetings have seen 187 or fewer combined points with an average of 182.4 combined points/game during that span. That's nearly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.

The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 7-0 in the Wizards last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. Throw in the fact that the UNDER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams, and we have a combined 21-0 system backing the UNDER in this one. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 194

Both Portland and Boston play at slower paces than the average NBA team. Portland ranks 23rd in the league in pace at 95.8 possessions per game. Boston ranks 18th in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.

I look for this game to be played at a snail's pace, which would be nothing new to when these teams have gotten together recently. Each of the last four meetings between the Blazers and Celtics have seen 190 or fewer combined points.

In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 194 or less combined points. That makes for a perfect 8-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 194, which dates back to the 2008 season.

Boston is 13-3 to the UNDER In home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 games overall. The UNDER is 6-2 in Celtics last eight games following a loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bobcats/Cavaliers UNDER 190

The Charlotte Bobcats and Cleveland Cavaliers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This will be their second meetings of the season, with their first resulting in a 90-84 home win by Charlotte for 174 combined points. I look for a similar low-scoring affair in the rematch.

Charlotte ranks 26th in the league in pace, averaging just 95.0 possessions per game. Cleveland is right in the middle of the pack at 15th, averaging 97.6 possessions per game.

Not only are both offenses playing at slow paces, but they are two of the least-efficient units in the NBA as well. Charlotte ranks 28th in offensive efficiency at 94.7, while Cleveland is 29th at 92.7. These numbers represent the amount of points each team scores per 100 possessions.

Mike Browns is 15-4 to the UNDER versus terrible 3 point shooting teams who make less than 30% of their attempts in all games he had coached. The UNDER is 59-26-2 in Bobcats last 87 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 6-0 in Cavaliers last six after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers last seven Friday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +5

While the Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing to the Clippers last night, I don't look for that to be much of a factor in this one. That's because the Thunder had two days off before last night's game, so they should still be fresh and ready to go. They'll also be motivated following just their second loss of the season.

Golden State is really starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers. It should not be a 5-point favorite in this match-up against what I feel is a better all-around team in Oklahoma City. The only good win the Warriors have this season came at Minnesota, but their other four wins have come against the likes of the Lakers, Kings, 76ers and Pistons.

Oklahoma City has simply owned Golden State in recent meetings. The Thunder have won seven of their last eight meetings with the Warriors with their only loss coming by exactly 5 points. There is clearly some value here with the Thunder as a 5-point underdog given the recent history. Plus, I expect this one to go right down to the wire, so I'd much rather take the points than give them up.

Scott Brooks is a sensational 107-62 ATS after one or more consecutive losses as the coach of Oklahoma City. Golden State is 2-13 ATS in home games after leading its previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days rest. Roll with Oklahoma City Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +6.5

The Phoenix Suns have been the most underrated teams in the league in the early going. They have opened 5-2 straight up and 6-0-1 against the spread through their first seven games of the season. They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as a nice-sized underdog at Portland tonight.

When you look the two losses that Phoenix has suffered this season, it's easy to see that it is legit. It lost at Oklahoma City 96-103 as a 12.5-point underdog, and at San Antonio 96-99 as a 13-point dog. It has won its other five games, including a 104-91 triumph over Portland to open the season.

This is a very balanced Phoenix team that features eight players who are averaging 22 or more minutes per game. Eric Bledsoe has been one of the most valuable players in the league to this point, averaging 20.9 points, 7.3 assists and 1.9 steals per game. He is running the show and proving that he was worth the big offseason trade.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, first half of the season are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Phoenix is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Take the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 207

The Lakers and Nuggets both play at very fast paces, and I look for a shootout tonight between these teams because of it. The Lakers rank 2nd in the league in pace with 102.8 possessions per game. The Nuggets aren't far behind, ranking 11th at 100.0 possessions per contest.

One big factor here that is getting overlooked is that Denver is without its best defensive player in JaVale McGee. Without his presence on the inside defensively, and his lack of offense on the other end, this is going to allow for more points being scored for both teams.

When you look at the recent history between the Lakers and Nuggets, it's easy to see that this number has been set too low. Los Angeles and Denver have combined for 227, 217, 240 and 225 points in their last four meetings, respectively. That's an average of 227.3 points per game, which is roughly 20 points more than tonight's posted total of 207.

The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 7-1 in Lakers last 8 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. The OVER is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The OVER is 7-2 in Nuggets last 9 games when playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this series. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Celtics UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Charlotte Bobcats and Boston Celtics Wednesday. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a very low-scoring affair between two of the worst offensive teams in the league.

Both teams play at slower than normal paces. Charlotte ranks 25th in the league at 95.1 possessions per game. Boston ranks 17th at 96.8 possessions per game. Worse yet, Charlotte ranks 28th in offensive efficiency, while Boston ranks 20th in offensive efficiency.

Looking at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. Boston and Charlotte have combined for 193 or less points in each of their last five meetings. Dating back further, the Celtics and Bobcats have combined for 193 or fewer points in 11 of their last 12 meetings. That makes for an 11-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 193.

Charlotte is 15-3 to the UNDER in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 58-26-2 in Bobcats last 86 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 10-4 in Celtics last 14 games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Washington Wizards +6

After losing by a final of 105-106 at Oklahoma City on Sunday, the Washington Wizards really showed what they are capable of this season. They have rebounded nicely following an 0-3 start, and following that 1-point loss, I look for them to go give Dallas everything it wants and more tonight.

The Mavericks are in a huge letdown spot here. They have a game against the defending champion Miami Heat on deck, and it's only human nature for them to be looking ahead to that contest. They won't come to play with their best effort because of it.

The Wizards are getting a ton of balance this season. They have five players averaging 13.5 points per game or more. You have to remember that Marcin Gortat was traded here just before the season, so it has taken him a few games to get accustomed to the system. He has played well in spite of it, averaging 13.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Washington is 13-3 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Wizards are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. Western Conference opponents. Take Washington Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -7.5

The Chicago Bulls are way undervalued right now due to their 2-3 start. I believe their 97-73 home victory over Utah on Friday was a more telling sign up what this team is capable, and I fully expect the Bulls to be one of the best teams in the league from here-forward.

Chicago has now had two full days to prepare for Cleveland. In fact, this will only be the 3rd game in 9 days for the Bulls, so they'll be well rested and ready to go. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers will be playing their 7th game in 11 days, so this is certainly a tired team right now.

This has been a one-sided series in recent years to say the least. Chicago has gone 10-1 in its last 11 meetings with Cleveland, and it is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with the Cavaliers. In fact, the Bulls have won nine of their last 10 meetings with Cleveland by 9-plus points.

The Cavaliers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games. The Cavaliers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Throw in the 9-1 system where the Bulls have won nine of 10 vs. Cleveland by nine or more points, and we have a combined 34-3 system backing Chicago in this one. Roll with the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 190.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics tonight. These teams just played each other on November 8 three days ago with the Celtics coming away with a 91-89 road victory for 180 combined points.

I was on the UNDER in that game, and I'll certainly be on the UNDER in the rematch tonight. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games, and having played just three days ago, there's no question that favors the defenses in this one.

Brad Stevens is a defensive-minded head coach who will have Boston playing in low-scoring games for most of the season. He values possessions offensively, and makes sure his players work the shot clock to find the best shot available.

It's no surprise that Boston is 5-2 to the UNDER through its first seven games due to Stevens' philosophy, and its lack of scorers to boot. Orlando is also 5-2 to the UNDER in the early going as oddsmakers continually set the totals too high for both of these teams.

Orlando is 10-1 to the UNDER vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 16-7-1 in the last 24 meetings in this series, including 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Boston. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks are showing tremendous value as only a 2.5-point favorite against the lowly Charlotte Bobcats Monday. The Hawks have absolutely dominated this series over the past couple of seasons, and I look for that trend to continue tonight.

Atlanta is off to a 3-3 start this season despite playing a brutal schedule that has featured four road games. All three of its losses have come by nine points or less, including two by exactly two points at the Lakers and at the Nuggets. In my opinion, this will be its easiest game yet.

Charlotte is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers due to its 3-3 start. Its three wins have all come by six points or less, and its three losses have come via blowout at Houston (83-96), at New Orleans (84-105) and versus New York (91-101). Atlanta is outscoring teams by 1.5 points per game on the season, while Charlotte is getting outscored by 5.2 points per game.

The Hawks have won eight straight meetings with the Bobcats dating to a 96-85 home victory April 13, 2011. They have gone 7-1 ATS in the process. Atlanta's average margin of victory during that stretch is 16.3 points per game. Al Jefferson has been hobbled by an injured ankle, and he's questionable to return tonight for Charlotte.

Plays on road favorites (ATLANTA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more are 42-14 (75%) ATS since 1996. Charlotte is 4-17 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better over the last three seasons. Atlanta is 10-1 ATS after two straight games where it attempted 90 or more shots since 1996. Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -2

There's no question that the Phoenix Suns have been one of the biggest surprise teams in the early going. They are off to a 4-2 start this year, which includes a 104-98 win at New Orleans on November 5. That sets the Pelicans up for a big revenge spot here. After losing at home to the Suns, I fully expect them to return the favor five days later.

New Orleans did not look great in the early going, but it has managed to rebound for two straight blowout victories to get back to 3-3 on the season. It won at Memphis (99-84) and topped the Lakers (96-85) at home. Unlike the Suns, I fully believe the Pelicans are here to stay for the long haul with the talent they have on board. Meanwhile, Phoenix will fade as the season progresses due to a lack of overall talent.

Indeed, the Pelicans are loaded with talent. Anthony Davis is averaging 23.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4.3 blocks and 2.0 steals per game to live up to his No. 1 pick status. Eric Gordon (16.5 points) is healthy, while Jrue Holiday (13.7 points, 7.2 assists) and Tyreke Evans (8.5 points) were excellent additions this offseason.

Home-court advantage has meant little when these teams have gotten together over the past couple seasons. In fact, the road team has won five of the last eight meetings while going 6-2 ATS in the process. New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after having won three of its last four games over the past three seasons. Phoenix is 8-21 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days over the last two seasons. Take the Pelicans Sunday.

15* Blazers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5

This is a home-and-home situation between the Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings. Portland won at home last night 104-91, and I fully expect the Kings to come back the more motivated team tonight to protect their home court in the second meeting.

Sacramento has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league. That has been evident in recent meetings with the Blazers, as the Kings have taken three of the past four meetings at home. The home team has won seven of the past nine meetings overall.

Portland had a historically bad bench last season, and its bench has not gotten that much better in 2013. That makes dealing with these back-to-back situation much more difficult on the Blazers than it would be for most teams.

Starters Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum are all averaging at least 34 minutes per game. Head coach Terry Stotts' hand is forced to have his starters play big minutes due to the lack of a bench. Only Mo Williams (7.2 ppg) is averaging more than 4.8 ppg off Portland's bench this year.

Meanwhile, Sacramento has a deep bench. That's evident by the fact that the Kings have a whopping nine players averaging at least 17 minutes per game this season. They bring guys like Ben McLemore, Travis Outlaw, Isaiah Thomas, Jason Thompson and Chuck Hayes off the bench, which is a pretty salty crew.

Portland is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after a win by 10 points or more. The Blazers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after scoring 100 or more points in two straight games. The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with Sacramento Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -3

The Memphis Grizzlies were getting way too much respect to open the season due to making the Western Conference Finals last year. As a result, they have opened the season 0-5 against the spread. Now, the betting public is off this team, which has forced them to set a weak line tonight.

Meanwhile, the Warriors are the flavor of the week in the early going due to their 4-1-1 ATS mark. Now, Golden State is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers, and the roles have reversed. There is a ton of value with Memphis as only a 3-point home favorite tonight.

The Grizzlies will come out determined for a win after opening 2-3 this year. They have had two days off to prepare for the Warriors having last played on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Golden State will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. This will also be the 4th game of a tough 4-game road trip, and there's no question the Warriors are tired, while the Grizzlies are well-rested.

Making matters worse for the Warriors is that Stephen Curry (ankle) is questionable to play tonight after sitting out last night's 74-76 loss at San Antonio. Whether he plays or not, I like the Grizzlies to win and cover, but if he doesn't play it's only an added bonus. Chances are he won't be playing after sitting out last night as 24 hours probably isn't long enough for his ankle to fully recover.

The Warriors tend to struggle without Stephen Curry, but having him hasn't made much of a difference against the Memphis Grizzlies. His importance to the Warriors has been evident when he's missing - especially on the road. They're 16-39 without Curry, dropping 23 of 31 contests away from home.

His status may not matter since the Warriors have dropped nine straight meetings with the Grizzlies, and Curry has averaged 22.9 points in eight of them. He poured in 32 with eight assists and five rebounds in a 99-93 defeat in the most recent visit to Memphis on Feb. 8. The Warriors have lost eight in a row there dating to a victory on April 4, 2008. That is a span of over five years. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Cavaliers UNDER 201.5

This is a home-and-home situation for the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers. These teams met last night in Philadelphia with the 76ers pulling out a 94-79 victory for 173 combined points.

I look for a similar low-scoring affair tonight as these teams square off for a second straight night. There's no question that the familiarity of one another favors the UNDER as the defenses know the opposing offense tendencies. Those tendencies aren't going to change over night.

Taking a look at this series between Philadelphia and Cleveland, its easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER. In fact, each of the last nine meetings have seen 190 or less combined points. They have combined for 173, 168, 184, 175, 165, 190, 188, 183, and 186 points in their last nine meetings, respectively. That's an average of 179.1 combined points/game, which is roughly 22 points less than tonight's posted total of 201.5.

The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 9-0 in Cavaliers last 9 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. These five trends combined for a perfect 27-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5

The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as a mere 1.5-point home favorite over the Indiana Pacers tonight. Off an overtime loss to Washington, Brooklyn is going to come back pissed off and ready to go tonight.

Indiana is way overvalued due to its 6-0 start this season. I faded it with success last night by backing the Raptors +9, and I'll fade the Pacers again tonight. They are in the toughest possible situation, playing their 4th game in 5 nights.

This Indiana team had one of the worst benches in the entire league last year, and it has done little to upgrade its bench in 2013. Not having a bench makes it extremely difficult to play a 4th game in 5 nights.

While Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back, and it went to overtime last night, this will only be its 2nd game in 4 nights. Plus, the Nets have one of the best benches in the league. They have 12 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game, and their bench consists of solid players like Jason Terry, Shaun Livingston, Andray Blatche, Andrei Kirilenko and Reggie Evans.

Brooklyn went 3-0 against Indiana last season. Paul George averaged 13.7 points on 37% shooting in those three contests, while Roy Hibbert has averaged 10.3 points on 38% shooting during a four-game losing streak to Brooklyn. Brook Lopez averaged 21.3 points and 3.0 blocks in last season's series, and he's averaged 22.3 points in 10 meetings against Indiana since the 2009-10 season.

The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The Nets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss. Brooklyn is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Indiana. Roll with the Nets Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +13.5

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a double-digit underdog to the Miami Heat Saturday. Boston came into the season undervalued, and that has proven to be the case with its 4-2 ATS mark on the year.

Despite being 2-4 on the season, Boston has yet to lose a game by more than 10 points. Despite being 4-2 on the season, Miami has yet to win a came by more than 12 points. I simply believe this number has been inflated tonight due to the perception that Boston isn't very good, and that Miami is the defending champs.

Miami has a way of playing down to its competition. That's especially the case now that it is back-to-back champs, which makes it hard to get up for regular season games like this one against a team that is perceived to be not very good. The Heat were certainly up for the Clippers last time out, winning 102-97 at home Thursday. However, off such a big win, that sets them up for a letdown tonight.

Lebron James is nursing a sore back, which will certainly have him limited tonight. The Heat used to look at Boston as rivals, but now they have to look at them in a completely different manner with Pierce and Garnett gone. That will leave them in a poor state of mind heading into this one.

Five straight and nine of the last 10 meetings between Boston and Miami have been decided by 13 points or less. The Celtics are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast opponents. The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win. Boston is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 meetings with Miami. Bet the Celtics Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +9

The Indiana Pacers are way overvalued due to their 5-0 start this season. They are coming off a huge win over fellow Central Division contender Chicago on Wednesday, setting them up for a big letdown spot here as they host the Toronto Raptors. They also have a road game at Brooklyn on deck tomorrow, which makes this a potential lookahead.

Toronto has been much better than its 2-3 record would indicate. All three of its losses came by nine points or less, and that 9-point setback was against the defending champion Miami Heat.

Home-court advantage has meant absolutely nothing when Indiana and Toronto have gotten together over the last couple of year. In fact, the road team is is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Toronto has won its last two visits to Indiana outright as a 7-point and 9-point underdog, respectively.

Plays against any team (INDIANA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=41% on the season, after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 75-37 (67%) ATS since 1996. Toronto is 14-4 ATS in road games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Raptors are 19-8 ATS in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Magic UNDER 192

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic. Both teams are in rebuilding mode, and each lacks offensive firepower, especially the Celtics.

Boston is only averaging 89.4 points per game despite shooting a solid 47% from the floor this season. That just shows how slow of a pace it plays at, which is no surprise considering head coach Brad Stevens always played at a snail's pace at Butler. The Celtics have been solid defensively, giving up just 93.4 points per game.

Orlando's numbers are a bit inflated due to playing an overtime game against Minnesota that resulted in 235 combined points. However, three of their five games have seen 193 or less combined points. That includes the 98-90 win on Wednesday against one of the best offensive teams in the NBA in the Los Angeles Clippers.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (ORLANDO) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 49-21 (70%) over the last five seasons.

Orlando is 9-1 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 56-33 UNDER after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game since 1996. The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 road games. The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Celtics last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is is 43-20-2 in Magic last 65 Friday games. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Knicks OVER 191

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Charlotte Bobcats and New York Knicks tonight. I look for this to be a shootout with these teams combining for more than 191 points with ease, which has certainly been the case in recent meetings.

Charlotte and New York have combined for 198 or more points in each of their last four meetings. Those four games have seen 199, 201, 213 and 198 points for an average of 202.8 points/game. That includes Charlotte's 102-97 road victory on November 5 just three days ago.

Now, Tyson Chandler has suffered an injury that will keep him out for the next 4-to-6 weeks. That's a huge loss for New York as they'll be playing without their former Defensive Player of the Year. That will open things up a lot for opposing offenses, and it will force the Knicks to be even more perimeter-oriented offensively than they already are. This should lead to easy buckets for opposing teams on long rebounds with fast break opportunities.

New York is 27-9 to the OVER after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more shots than opponent since 1996. Charlotte is 24-13 to the OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. The Bobcats are 16-5 to the OVER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. New York is 12-4-2 to the OVER in its last 18 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Hawks/Nuggets Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -3

As one of two winless teams on the season, the Denver Nuggets (0-3) are clearly highly motivated for their first victory of the year. I look for them to take out their frustration Thursday on the Atlanta Hawks, who are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

The good news is that Denver has had plenty of practice time to get things straightened out. It is the only team in the entire league to have played just three games to this point in the season. New head coach Brian Shaw has had extra time to implement his systems, and I look for that extra practice to start paying off as soon as tonight.

It started to pay off in their last game against the San Antonio Spurs. The Nuggets held a 78-72 lead entering the fourth quarter against the defending Western Conference champs, only to get outscored 30-16 in the final period to lose 94-102. If they can hang with the Spurs, they can certainly beat the Hawks by more than three points tonight.

I don't believe the Hawks have shown enough to be getting this much respect from the books as only a 3-point road dog to the Nuggets, who have historically been one of the best home teams in the league. Atlanta's two wins came against Toronto (102-95) and Sacramento (105-100). It also fell at Dallas (109-118) and at the Lakers (103-105).

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge when the Hawks and Nuggets get together in recent years. Indeed, the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series. Denver has won six straight home meetings with Atlanta, and five of the last six meetings in this series overall.

The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Denver is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 home games against Southeast Division opponents. The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games versus good offensive teams that score 103 or more points per game. Bet the Nuggets Thursday.

15* Clippers/Heat TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this showdown between the Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat. These National TV games usually bring out the best in team defense, and I look for that to be the case tonight in this matchup between two of the top contenders to win the NBA Title in 2013-14.

I believe this number has been inflated largely due to both teams going OVER the total frequently in the early going. Los Angeles is 4-1 to the OVER thus far, while Miami is 4-1 to the OVER as well. Oddsmakers have been forced to set this number higher than it should be because the betting public is going to continue pounding the OVER in this game tonight. I'll go the other way.

Let's take a look at the two meetings between Miami and Los Angeles last year. In their first meeting on November 14, the books set the total at 197 and they combined for 207 points to go OVER the number. In their second meeting on February 8, they set the total at 193 and they went OVER again with 200 combined points. Now, they've set the total at 210.5 points, which is way higher than last year's two totals, which further proves my point that there is a ton of value on the UNDER.

While the Clippers have been soft defensively thus far, there's no question that head coach Doc Rivers won't stand for it for much longer. They are coming off their best defensive performance of the season last night, though they still lost 90-98 at Orlando for 188 combined points. I look for them to continue to make strides defensively tonight against the Heat.

The UNDER is 23-8 in Clippers last 31 Thursday games. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Heat's last six Thursday games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Heat's last eight home games. Miami is 15-5 to the UNDER in home games after making 85% of their free throws or better over the last three seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 185

The Utah Jazz and Boston Celtics are two of the worst teams in the league in 2013. Both are 0-4 to start the year and each will be hungry for their first victory. I look for both teams to bring max effort defensively in this one in search of that elusive first win.

Brad Stevens ran a very slow tempo at Butler, and he has brought his same philosophy to these Celtics. Playing at home, Boston will control the tempo in this one and make this a half-court game from start to finish, limiting the possessions for both teams.

Both squads have been atrocious offensively in 2013. Boston is scoring just 87.5 points per game despite shooting a respectable 45.5%, which shows how slow of a tempo it plays at. Utah is putting up 90.7 points per game on 40.4% shooting this season.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtis last six games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last five road games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a huge letdown spot here. They are coming off a big win over the Houston Rockets on Monday night, and they have an even bigger game against the defending champion Miami Heat on deck Thursday in a game that will be nationally televised on TNT. I fully expect them to be overlooking the Orlando Magic tonight.

Everyone has been overlooking the Magic this season due to finishing with the worst record in the league a year ago. This team is much-improved, going 2-2 straight up and a perfect 4-0 against the spread. Its two losses came on the road with one in overtime against Minnesota. Its two wins came at home via blowout with a 110-90 win over New Orleans, and a 107-86 victory over Brooklyn.

Los Angeles is one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season. It is giving up 112.5 points per game and 48.2% shooting, so Doc Rivers hasn't been able to make up for the lack of defensive talent in the early going. Orlando is putting up 104.7 points per game on 46.6% shooting, including 43.5% from 3-point range.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, first half of the season are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Magic are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents. Orlando is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 meetings with Los Angeles. Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* Bulls/Pacers ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +3

The Chicago Bulls have obviously not played up to their potential en route to a 1-2 start this season. However, this is a resilient team, and with three days off heading into this showdown with the Indiana Pacers, I fully expect them to correct their mistakes and to come away with a win tonight against NBA Central Division rival Indiana.

The Pacers will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 99-91 win at Detroit last night. That gives the Bulls a huge edge in rest and preparation heading into this one. Not only will they want it more, they will be more better prepared than Indiana to come away with a victory tonight.

"You've got to correct things immediately; you got to put the work into it," Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau told the team's official website. "You can't hope it to happen; you have to make it happen. And we need everybody doing it. We can't rely on a certain two or three guys to do everything. Our entire team is needed. This isn't a Derrick issue, this is a team issue and we have to correct it."

Chicago is 14-6 against Indiana with Derrick Rose in the lineup. Thibodeau is 33-13 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. Thibodeau is 26-9 ATS off a loss by six points or less as the coach of Chicago. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -1.5

The Washington Wizards are highly motivated for their first win of the season Wednesday night. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that they already lost to the Philadelphia 76ers by a final of 102-109 at home on November 1, so they will be seeking revenge, too.

Philadelphia is way overvalued after a 3-1 start with three wins by seven points or fewer. The fact of the matter is that this team lacks talent, and its true colors showed last time out in a 90-110 home loss to the Golden State Warriors.

Washington has had two days off since a 93-103 loss at Miami on Sunday. It comes in fully rested and fully prepared to avenge its earlier loss to the 76ers. Look for John Wall and company to come out with their best effort of the season tonight to get the win and cover.

Washington is 18-6 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponents over the past two seasons. Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS after coving three of its last four against the spread over the past two years. The Wizards are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Rockets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1.5

The Houston Rockets are in a very tough situation tonight. They will be playing their 4th game in 5 days after losing 118-137 to the Los Angeles Clippers last night. There's no question that game took a lot out of them as the Clippers simply ran them to death. That obviously makes matters worst heading into their 4th game in five nights at Portland Tuesday.

The Trail Blazers will have a huge edge in rest in this one. They actually come in on two days' rest since their 115-105 home victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday, November 2. That followed up an even more impressive 113-98 road win at Denver the previous night. There's no question this team is improved.

Portland had one of the best starting fives in the league last season led by LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum. All four of those guys are back to lead the way, and they're combining to average roughly 80 points per game between them. The Blazers' problem last year was that they had no bench.

Well, Portland has shored up that area as well. Not only is Robin Lopez an upgrade over J.J. Hickson as the starting center, but guys like Mo Williams, Dorell Wright and Thomas Robinson are now manning the Blazers' bench. That's a huge upgrade over last year's bench, which was historically one of the worst that the NBA has ever seen. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the Blazers in a very favorable spot Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavericks/Lakers UNDER 214.5

Oddsmakers are overreacting from the high-scoring nature in the early going of both Lakers and Mavericks games. While there's no question that the Mavericks have been impressive offensively, while the Lakers have upped the tempo a bit, this total is simply set too high and there's a ton of value with the UNDER.

The Lakers are only scoring 100.0 points per game this season. They clearly miss Kobe Bryant on offense and have to make up for his absence by playing better on the defensive end. While it hasn't always been pretty, the Lakers have been much better on that side of the ball of late, allowing 91 points to the Spurs and 103 to the Hawks in their last two contests.

When you look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The Lakers and Mavericks have combined for 209 or less points in 16 of their last 17 meetings. The only game they didn't was a 112-108 overtime victory for the Lakers on 4/15/2012. That game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation for 196 combined points.

So, not counting overtime, the Lakers and Mavs have combined for 209 or less in 17 straight meetings, making for a perfect 17-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 2010. I understand these teams are different this year, but not different enough to warrant this ridiculous 214.5-point total. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Rockets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers (2-1) want to make a statement tonight against the 3-0 Houston Rockets. They come in on two days' rest having last played on Friday, while this will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Rockets.

Getting two days to prepare for Houston is pretty big. The Rockets are one of the more tough teams to prepare for due to their versatility offensively. I really like the Clippers having DeAndre Jordan, who can match up with Dwight Howard about as well as anyone in the league.

Houston comes in overvalued due to its 3-0 start that has come against a pretty soft schedule. It has home wins over Charlotte and Dallas, as well as a road win at Utah thus far. Los Angeles' 126-115 home win over Golden State was impressive to say the least. I look for a similar result tonight.

The Clippers have won five of the last six meetings in this series. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Rockets are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win. Bet the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Phoenix Suns +13.5

The Phoenix Suns are way undervalued to open the 2013-14 season. They are perceived as rebuilding, but they have Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe carrying a new era in Phoenix.

As a 13-point underdog today, the Suns are obviously getting no respect from oddsmakers. They have opened 2-0 this year with wins over both the Blazers and Jazz. I like what I've seen from them thus far, and they should not be a 13-point dog to the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is not the same team it is when Russell Westbrook is healthy. We saw that in the playoffs last year, and we're seeing it in the early going. The Thunder barely beat the Jazz 101-98, and they were thoroughly dominated by the Timberwolves 81-100 last time out.

The Suns are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. The Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Not surprisingly, all seven of those games have come without Russell Westbrook. Bet the Suns Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2

Both the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight. However, there are two big advantages that the Mavericks have in this situation.

Dallas played in Houston last night, so it won't be a very long flight North back to Dallas. Memphis played at home last night, so it's definitely going to a long flight for the Grizzlies. Couple that with the fact that the Grizzlies played an overtime game against Detroit, and the advantage clearly goes to the Mavs in terms of rest and travel.

Coach Rick Carlisle did an excellent job of managing players' minutes last night, and it showed that this Dallas team is very deep. No player played more than 32 minutes last night, which was Monta Ellis, who is a young guard who can handle the load of playing a back-to-back. Nine different players played at least 13 minutes, and 11 players got into the game in all.

What I really liked to see was how well the bench performed. Gal Mekel had 11 points and six assists in 23 minutes, DeJuan Blair had 11 points and 10 rebounds in 18 minutes, and Jae Crowder had 15 points in only 13 minutes. Knowing that these bench players are capable of performing gives Carlisle a lot of options going into tonight. Plus, the Mavericks only shot 38.0 percent from the floor and still hung with the Rockets, only losing by a final of 105-113. That shows a a lot about this team as well.

Memphis has one of the worst benches in the entire league. As a result, six players were forced to play the majority of the minutes last night against Detroit. Five players played at least 32 minutes, while none of the other five players that played were able to contribute double-digit points. Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph each played 36-plus minutes against the Pistons. The Grizzlies simply rely too heavily on this trio, and that will take its toll tonight.

I just strongly feel that the Grizzlies were overrated coming into the season due to making the Western Conference Finals last year. They were gifted that trip to the conference finals thanks to an injury to Blake Griffin for the Clippers in the first round, and an injury to Russell Westbrook for the Thunder in the second. Their true colors showed in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Spurs in the West Finals.

After opening 0-2 ATS in 2013-14, it's clear that I was right when saying this team was overvalued. It still is overvalued as only a 2-point underdog to the Mavericks on the road tonight. Conversely, Dallas came into the season undervalued due to going 41-41 last season. But it was playing without Dirk Nowitzki for much of the year, and once he came back, the Mavericks went on a nice run just to get back to .500 on the season.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. In fact, the home team has won six of the last seven meetings between the Mavericks and Grizzlies dating back to 2012. Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games playing on 0 days' rest. The Mavericks are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS loss. Dallas is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Mavericks Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +8

The Detroit Pistons are one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into the 2013-14 season. That was evident in their opener as they dismantled Washington 113-102 as only a 2.5-point home favorite. The Wizards are a hot pick this season to be much-improved, so it was a really good win.

I love what Detroit has done this offseason. It has brought in Josh Smith, Chauncey Billups and Brandon Jennings. While Jennings is out with an injury, the Pistons did not miss him much as they scored 113 points on 50% shooting. Will Bynum had 19 points while Billups scored 16 to lead the Pistons' backcourt.

But the real reason this team is going to be so tough going forward is the length of the three big men in Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. Monroe and Drummond were already arguably the most underrated big man tandem in the league, and when you throw Smith into the mix, this is going to be a tough team to deal with. Monroe scored 24 points in the opener, while Smith (19) and Drummond (12) had solid games as well.

Conversely, I believe the Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most overrated teams heading into 2013-14. That's because they made the Western Conference Finals last year. However, they were aided by an injury to Blake Griffin in their series win over the Clippers, and then Russell Westbrook missed the entire series in the Conference Semifinals for Oklahoma City.

Memphis' true colors showed in the conference finals as they were swept in four games by the Spurs. The Grizzlies did nothing to improve their team this offseason, especially offensively. They lost 94-101 to San Antonio in the opener in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they shot just 41.9 percent from the floor. Sure, Memphis is going to be a good defensive team again this season, but so is Detroit with their trio of big men.

Detroit is 72-49 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1996. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. win. Detroit is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. the Pistons are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 or more points in its previous game. These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Pistons. Take Detroit Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 188

The books have set the bar way too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. Both of these teams are going to be solid defensively this year, but each is also going to be terrible offensively. That couldn't have been more evident than in the openers for each on Wednesday.

Milwaukee lost 83-90 at New York in its opener while shooting just 45.9 percent from the floor. It did allow 50.7 percent shooting to the Knicks, but so for such a low-scoring game, that just shows the kind of slow pace they played at. Boston lost 87-93 at Toronto despite shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Again, it was such a low scoring game due to the slow pace.

Brad Stevens is the new head coach at Boston. At Butler in college, Stevens always got the most out of this teams behind a suffocating defense. He even took the Bulldogs to the NCAA Championship twice, which is simply remarkable. He did that despite having a below-average offensive team in terms of points per game because they played at such a slow pace and relied on defense.

Milwaukee boasts two of the best defensive big men in the league. Larry Sanders and John Henson have a ton of length and can alter shots as well as any tandem in the NBA. However, neither player is gifted offensively. So this is certainly going to be a defensive-minded Bucks team, especially after letting go of Monte Ellis and Brandon Jennings in the offseason.

Both teams have injuries to guards that are really going to hamper their offensive production in the early going, and force them to play at an even slower pace. Milwaukee is expected to be without starting point guard Brandon Knight and backup point guard Luke Ridnour, leaving the unproven Nate Wolters to handle the PG duties. Boston is without Rajon Rondo (knee), while backup PG Avery Bradley is questionable with a head injury.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this series. Had one of those games not gone to overtime, the UNDER would be 8-1. The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six vs. NBA Central opponents. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bucks last five road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four vs. NBA Atlantic foes. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks will be hungry for their first win of the season on Friday as they return home to face the Toronto Raptors. Despite allowing 57.1% shooting at Dallas on Wednesday, they hung tough and lost by a final of 109-118.

Obviously, the defense isn't going to be nearly as bad at home, and Toronto isn't going to be nearly as hot at Dallas was the other night. The offense looked solid in scoring 109 points, and head coach Mike Budenholzer has been preaching defense heading into this one, especially in transition.

"If you sprint back, you've got to take care of the basket first, and then the ball and then the most dangerous (potential shooter) - in that order," Budenholzer said. "A lot of times if it truly is transition, you don't end up with your own man."

Point guard Jeff Teague had 24 points, nine assists and four steals while doing a nice job triggering Budenholzer's new offense. Newcomer Paul Millsap scored 20 points from the power forward spot previously manned by Josh Smith, and another newcomer, Cartier Martin, added 17 points off the bench.

"We were running back to our own man; that's stuff you learn in second grade," Teague said. "They were getting easy baskets. We've got to get back in transition and match up. It doesn't matter who you guard. We made mistakes. We're learning. We're a new team. We'll get better."

I strongly believe the Hawks are underrated heading into the season due to the trade of Josh Smith in the offseason. Well, they return almost everyone except Smith, and Paul Millsap is an ample replacement. In fact, he is arguably the single-most underrated player in the entire league.

I was more impressed with how the Hawks hung tough in Dallas in a losing effort than I was with Toronto's 93-87 home victory over Boston to open the season. The Celtics are in full-blown rebuilding mode, and the Raptors struggled to put them away as an 8-point favorite. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight, while the Hawks aren't getting enough.

Atlanta has won nine of its last 11 meetings with Toronto. Bet the Hawks Friday.

20* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 203

Two of the best offensive teams in the entire league will be on display Thursday night when the Los Angeles Clippers match up with the Golden State Warriors on TNT. I look for a shootout between these teams tonight.

According to some preseason rankings that I trust very much, the Clippers are projected to be the most efficient offensive team in the league. That's easy to see when they have Chris Paul and Blake Griffin surrounded by deadly accurate 3-point shooters like J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes, along with proven scorer Jamaal Crawford.

Even in an off night, the Clippers managed over 100 points in their 103-116 loss to the Lakers to open the season. I also expected this team to struggle defensively due to the personnel with below-average defenders like Redick and Jamaal Crawford. That was certainly the case against the Lakers.

Golden State opened its season last night by putting up a big number on the Lakers, winning 125-94 at home. With deadly shooters in Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry, this squad is going to be tough to defend, just as it was in the playoffs last year.

Taking a look at previous meetings between these teams from last season, it's easy to see that there is some value with the OVER tonight. The Clippers and Warriors combined for 205, 204, 209 and 224 points in their four meetings last year. As you can see, they topped 203 points each meeting, and they averaged 210.5 combined points in the four contests.

The OVER is 8-1 in Clippers last nine games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. The OVER is 16-5-1 in Clippers last 22 games vs. division opponents. The OVER is 11-2 in Warriors last 13 vs. division opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER 189

This is a rematch from the playoffs last year where the San Antonio Spurs swept the Memphis Grizzlies in four games. There's no question that these teams are very familiar with one another, which will lead to a defensive battle tonight in the season opener for both teams.

Miraculously, four of the last eight meetings between the Spurs and Grizzlies have gone to overtime. I believe that's a big reason why this total has been inflated. The betting public doesn't always realize this, and they just see that the over/under ratio is 4-4 in the last eight games in this series.

A closer look really shows how the Spurs and Grizzlies consistently play in defensive battles. If you exclude overtime, then I find that the last eight meetings have seen 179, 172, 170, 188, 182, 185, 190 and 174 combined points at the end of regulation.

As you can see, only once did the Spurs and Grizzlies combine to score more than 188 points in the last eight meetings. When you average it out, they have combined for 180.0 points per game on average in the last eight meetings at the end of regulation. That's a full nine points below tonight's posted total of 189.

I have seen nothing from the Spurs and the Grizzlies in the offseason that makes me believe either team will be better off offensively this season. In fact, in my defensive efficiency ratings which factors in points allowed per 100 possessions, San Antonio ranks as the No. 1 defensive teams in the league, while Memphis checks in at No. 3 heading into the 2013-14 season.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) - in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 75%) from last season are 40-15 (72.7%) over the last five seasons. With an added intensity due to meeting in the playoffs last year, I look for this to be an absolute defensive battle tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.