20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +6

The Detroit Pistons cap off a four-game road trip out West tonight and will be highly motivated to sweep it.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS upsetting Phoenix 133-125 as 6-point dogs, upsetting the Lakers 117-114 as 6-point dogs and upsetting the Kings 114-113 as 5-point dogs.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season and grossly undervalued.  They are also rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  And that rest advantage over the Denver Nuggets is a big reason I am backing them tonight.

The Nuggets are the most tired team in the NBA right now. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 149-135 loss to Cleveland last night.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here, which is as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.

Aaron Gordon is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, and he is out right now for the Nuggets.  All five starters played at least 29 minutes for the Nuggets last night, including 40 from Jamal Murray and 36 from Jokic.  They have one of the worst benches in the NBA so they lack depth.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* Warriors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry (22.5 PPG) tonight.  He means everything to them from an offensive standpoint, and the Warriors are a dead nuts UNDER team without him.

The Clippers are already a dead nuts UNDER team going 19-11 UNDER in all games this season.  They rank 8th in defensive rating and 25th in offensive rating and they play slow.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive rating this season.

This will be the 2nd meeting between the Warriors and Clippers this season.  The first was an absolute defensive battle with the Clippers winning 102-99 at home for 201 combined points.  Curry had 26 points in that game to boot.  It will be more of the same without him tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers are as healthy as they have been all season.  They remain undervalued despite being 26-4 SU & 21-9 ATS this season.  They have won five consecutive games all by 10 points or more coming into this one.

The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off.  They come out of this break motivated to beat the Denver Nuggets, a team they already handled 126-114 at home as 3.5-point favorites on December 5th in their first meeting.

Aaron Gordon had 18 points and 7 rebounds for the Nuggets in that first meeting.  Well, the Nuggets won't have Gordon this time around as he is out with calf injury.  Jamal Murray will play but is hampered by an ankle injury.  I give the Nuggets almost no shot of winning this game without Gordon.

The Nuggets played on Christmas Day in a 110-110 loss at Phoenix despite the Suns playing without Devin Booker.  They will now be playing their 4th game in 6 days tonight.  They also have to deal with the distractions that come with Christmas, and I just believe this is a gassed team right now that lacks depth.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Blazers OVER 227

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 7-1 in Jazz last eight games overall with 237 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  The only game that went under was against the Charlotte Hornets, who are a dead nuts under team.

This total of 227 is too low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  That's especially the case considering the opponent in the Portland Trail Blazers, who are as healthy as they have been all season and we are seeing higher scoring games with them recently as a result.

The Blazers and their opponents have combined for at least 225 points in four of their last five games, including 240 with Dallas, 250 with Denver and 234 with San Antonio.  They also recently lost 141-99 to the Jazz in a game that saw 240 combined points.

The Jazz and Blazers have now combined for at least 226 points in eight of their last nine meetings, including 227 or more in seven of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Wizards OVER 226.5

The Hornets are a pretty easy team to figure out.  They are an OVER team with La'Melo Ball (30 PPG, 7.5 APG) healthy and an UNDER team without him.  He is their most important player by far as he makes everyone's job easier offensively. Ball is healthy right now.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 games that Ball has played.  There have been 229 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They did go under with the Rockets and 215 combined points last time out, but that was very fluky as they shot 42% as a team and the Rockets only shot 43%.

Now the Hornets take on a dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards tonight.  The Wizards rank 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They play fast and they play zero defense.

The Hornets and Wizards have combined for 231 or more points in four of their last five meetings, including 237, 241 and 248 in three of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Nuggets/Suns ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 232.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Nuggets and Suns just squared off on Monday in Denver with the Nuggets winning 117-90 for just 207 combined points.  They have set the total at 232.5 for the rematch here two days later, and it's simply too high.

This has been a low-scoring series to say the least.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 207, 201, 204, 230, 225 and 220 combined points at the end of regulation.  So they have combined for 230 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six consecutive meetings, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 232.5-point total.  The last three of 207, 201, and 204 have been extremely low-scoring.

Injuries to both teams are another reason to like the UNDER.  The Suns are without Devin Booker and Grayson Allen, and both are missed much more on the offensive end than the defensive end.  Jamal Murray is questionable to play for the Nuggets and offers a lot more on the offensive end than the defensive end as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on OVER 221

When the Lakers and Warriors get together a shootout is usually the end result.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 223 or more combined points in all six meetings, which makes for a 6-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 221-point total.

The last four meetings have been especially high scoring with 254, 249, 238 and 236 combined points at the end of regulation.  LeBron and AD are both questionable, but both played in their last game and combined for 65 points in a 117-114 loss to the Pistons.  I expect both to play in this game since it's Christmas Day on National TV.

The Warriors are fully healthy with the exception of Gary Payton II, who is questionable. But not having him on the floor would make them even more of an OVER team because he is their best perimeter defender.  Getting Dennis Schroeder in a trade has opened up their offense and given Steve Kerr more options around Steph Curry.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2

The Milwaukee Bucks are going to struggle to be motivated in the immediate future after winning the NBA Cup.  In their first game out of their cup championship, they lost 124-101 at Cleveland.  They did beat the Wizards 112-101 in their next game, but the Wizards are the worst team in the NBA.

More concerning even than motivation are injuries to their two best players.  They will be without Damian Lillard tonight, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable to play tonight.

The Bulls are fully healthy right now with only Josh Giddey listed as questionable.  They are playing well going 3-1 SU in their last four games overall including a 117-108 road win at Boston as 14.5-point dogs.  Their only loss came to the Celtics at home in the revenge game.

This will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Bucks off the NBA Cup so they are the more tired team.  This will be just the 5th game in 15 days for the Bulls, and all that rest is a big reason they are playing so well right now.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 236.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be without Damian Lillard tonight and could be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is questionable.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state and that has played out recently.

The Bucks and their oppoenents have combined for 235 or fewer points in nine consecutive games, making for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 236.5-point total.  They have combined for 225 or fewer points in five consecutive games.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Bulls last five games overall with 225 or fewer combined points in four of those.  Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and this will already be the 3rd meeting between the Bucks and Bulls this season.

The Bucks and Bulls have combined for 236 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 19 of their last 20 meetings, making for a 19-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 236.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -6

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the best teams in the NBA this season but they aren't being priced like it, thus we continue getting value in backing them.  The Bucks are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall with their last four wins all coming by 16 points or more.  Their only two losses during this stretch came on the road to the Mavericks by 5 and the Lakers by 6.

The Los Angeles Clippers are struggling right now going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with all four losses coming by 11 points or more.  Their two wins came over the Jazz and over the Mavericks who were without both Doncic and Irving.  This looks like another blowout in Memphis' favor at home tonight.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rockets/Hornets OVER 217

The Hornets are a pretty easy team to figure out.  They are an OVER team with La'Melo Ball (30.4 PPG, 7.5 APG) healthy and an UNDER team without him.  He is their most important player by far as he makes everyone's job easier offensively. Ball is healthy right now.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine games that Ball has played.  There have been 229 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  This total of 217 is very low for a game involving the Hornets with Ball healthy.

The OVER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight games that weren't in the NBA Cup, where defensive intensity is high.  We have seen 223 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.

The Hornets and Rockets have combined for at least 219 points in seven of their last eight meetings, making for a 7-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 217-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Cavs OVER 230.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 6-1 in Jazz last seven games overall with 238 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The only game that went under was against the Charlotte Hornets, who are a dead nuts under team.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are also more of a dead nuts OVER team this season going 19-10 OVER in all games. They rank 1st in offensive rating this season and they'll be up against a Jazz team that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The OVER is 4-1 in Cavs last five games overall with 231 or more combined points in three of them.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 242, 240 and 230 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +3

This is a terrible spot for the Sacramento Kings.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 103-99 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night.  Fox, DeRozan and Sabonis all played at least 37 minutes last night and won't have much left in the tank for the Indiana Pacers tonight.

The Pacers are not the team you want to play on tired legs since they play with so much tempo.  And the Pacers come in playing their best basketball of the season going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three road games upsetting Phoenix by 9 as 6-point dogs, upsetting the 76ers by 14 as 6.5-point dogs and topping the Bulls by 9 as 3.5-point favorites.

The Pacers are the much fresher team here after having the last two days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  They should not be underdogs to the Kings today given that huge rest advantage.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Knicks/Pelicans OVER 225

The Knicks are the most improved offensive team in the NBA with the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating only slightly behind the Cavaliers and slightly ahead of the Celtics.  They are fully healthy right now and just hung 133 points against a very good Minnesota defensive team.

The Pelicans have gotten much healthier in recent weeks and are playing better on offense as a result, but they are still terrible defensively.  The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating this season and have fallen off a cliff on that end.

The Pelicans and their opponents have combined for at least 220 points in seven consecutive games, including 228 or more in five of those.  They just lost 133-113 at Houston for 246 combined points against a Houston team that isn't very good on offense but is elite on defense.  This has the making of a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Warriors/Timberwolves OVER 213

The Golden State Warriors just combined for 237 points with Memphis and 276 points with Dallas at the end of regulation it their last two games.  They are fully healthy right now, and it's no surprise they are playing in shootouts since trading for Dennis Schroeder to give their offense a spark, but he brings nothing on defense.

The Minnesota Timberwolves just lost 133-107 to the New York Knicks for 240 combined points.  They also recently lost to the Warriors 114-106 in a game that saw 220 combined points with a total of 216.  There's no way the oddsmakers should have adjusted this number down to 213 for the rematch as there's clearly value on the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +11.5

The Milwaukee Bucks just won the NBA Cup in Las Vegas.  They are going to struggle to be motivated for a while in these 'meaningless' NBA regular season games compared to the level of intensity they played with in the NBA Cup.

We saw that on display last night in their 124-101 loss at Cleveland as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and come back as 11.5-point favorites over the Wizards tonight.  This is a game they could legitimately lose outright.

The Bucks are a tired team due to playing in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  Damian Lillard is doubtful to play tonight, and they certainly should not be double-digit favorites without him.

The Washington Wizards are about as healthy as they have been all season.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall only losing by 10 as 16.5-point dogs at Cleveland, by 14 as 17-point dogs at Boston and upsetting Charlotte by 9 as 4-point home dogs.  

This team is grossly undervalued right now, especially given the tough spot for Milwaukee.  The Wizards are also 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bucks pulling the outright upset as 12.5-point home dogs, and only losing by 3 as 13.5-point road dogs and by 10 as 14.5-point road dogs.  Bet the Wizards Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Nets OVER 221.5

The Utah Jazz are fully healthy and a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-0 in Jazz last six games overall with 245, 251, 260, 238, 240 and 239 combined points.  So this total of 221.5 is very low for a game involving Utah right now.

The Brooklyn Nets aren't a great offensive team, which is why this total is so low.  But I think they will have one of the best outputs of the season here against the worst defensive team in the NBA.

The Jazz and Nets have combined for at least 220 points in six consecutive meetings, including 261 and 233 points in their two meetings last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/76ers OVER 215.5

Note: La'Melo Ball ruled out since I published the pick. Bet much smaller than normal if you purchased.

The Charlotte Hornets are an OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (30.4 PPG, 7.5 APG) is healthy and playing.  He opens everything up for them offensively.  It's no surprised that after missing three weeks due to injury, Ball returned and the Hornets went 2-0 OVER in his two games since returning with 229 combined points with the 76ers and 237 with the Wizards.

The Hornets also recently got back Miles Bridges and Mark Williams from injury, and Brandon Miller may return tonight.  They will be much better offensively moving forward, but they are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The 76ers have both Tyrese Maxey and Paul George back and healthy and starting to form a chemistry playing together.  Maxey had 40 points and George 33 in that 121-108 win over the Hornets last time out.

That game had a total of 218.5, so we are getting a discount here with this total at 215.5 for the rematch.  I'm going to be on Hornets OVERS as long as Ball is healthy until the oddsmakers adjust the totals up enough, which they haven't here.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Pacers/Suns NBA No-Brainer on OVER 234.5

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace and 22nd in defensive rating.  The OVER is 16-10-1 in all Pacers games this season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time.

Speaking of healthy, the Suns will have all hands on deck tonight and they are a dead nuts OVER team when that's the case.  Durant, Beal and Nurkic have all missed time this season but all are healthy now.

The Suns are 15-10 OVER in all games this season.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall.  The Pacers and Suns combined for 264 points in their last meeting.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Hawks/Spurs OVER 234

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 17th in defensive rating this season.  They are fully healthy right now with the exception of C Okongwu, but not having him on the court makes them even more of an OVER team.

The OVER is 4-1 in Spurs last five games overall with 234 or more combined points in four of those five games.  The lone exception came against the Timberwolves, who profile as an under team.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the Hawks and Spurs with 230 or more combined points in eight of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA No-Brainer on OVER 235.5

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Grizzlies rank 2nd in the NBA in pace while the Warriors rank 8th, so this game will see a ton of possessions as both teams get up and down the court in a hurry offensively.

The Grizzlies are about as healthy as they have been all season and showing what they can do offensively when that's the case.  They have gone for at least 237 combined points with their opponents in five of their last seven games.

The Warriors are fully healthy now and just added Dennis Schroeder to give them that much needed extra guard to give Steph Curry a breather.  They just took part in a 143-133 shootout loss to Dallas and 276 combined points in their last game.

The Warriors and Grizzlies have combined for at least 241 points in five of their last seven meetings, so this has been a very high-scoring series.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +14.5

The Boston Celtics are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season.  They won the NBA title last year and there's a tax that bettors have to pay to back them because of it.  The Celtics have failed to live up to expectations, going just 10-16 ATS this season.

Asking the Celtics to beat the Bulls by 15-plus points tonight to beat us is asking too much.  The Bulls are a pesky underdog and tend to play to the level of their competition.  We saw that a few weeks ago when they only lost 138-129 to the Celtics as 12-point home underdogs on November 29th.  Now they will be revenge-minded in the rematch three weeks later.

The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season right now due with only Josh Giddey listed as questionable.  The Celtics could be without Kristaps Porzingis, who is a game-time decision, ass is role player Sam Hauser.  I think the Bulls keep this closer than expected either way. Bet the Bulls Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Wizards OVER 226

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.

The Hornets are a pretty easy team to figure out.  They are an OVER team with La'Melo Ball healthy and an UNDER team without him.  He is their most important player by far as he makes everyone's job easier offensively. Ball is healthy right now.

The Washington Wizards profile as a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  But the Wizards have been going under the total a lot recently, which has provided us some line value to 'buy low' on an OVER tonight.

The Wizards and Hornets have combined fro 231, 241 and 248 points in three of their last four meetings.  Ball played in all three of those games and didn't play in the one game during this stretch that didn't see at least 231 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Pistons OVER 228

The entire NBA is rested and ready to go tonight with almost everyone having at least three days off in between games due to the NBA Cup.  I am taking a lot of OVERS tonight with these guys on fresh legs and healthy and ready to run tonight.  This is my favorite OVER of the bunch.

The Utah Jazz are fully healthy and a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive rating.  The OVER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games overall with 251, 260, 238, 240 and 239 combined points.  So this total of 228 is very low for a game involving Utah right now.

The OVER is 4-1 in Pistons last five games overall with 235, 250, 231, 222 and 249 combined points.  This total is also very low for a game involving the Pistons right now.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 230 or more combined points in all four.  These teams have combined for 276, 230, 237 and 241 points at the end of regulation in their last four meetings, respectively. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bucks/Thunder NBA Cup Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 215

Some great defense is being played in the NBA Cup quarterfinals and semifinals.  These are like playoff games with the defensive intensity high, and refs letting more physical contact go.  The UNDER is 5-1 in NBA Cup quarterfinals/semifinals. This total of 215 is too high for this matchup between the Bucks and Thunder in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  

The Thunder rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating.  They held the Mavericks to 104 points in the quarterfinals, completing locking down Luka Doncic and company as nobody from Dallas scored more than 19 points.  They held the Rockets to 96 points in the semifinals.  They have allowed 110 points or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games overall.

The Bucks have been trending up defensively in recent weeks.  They held the high-powered Hawks to just 102 points on 42.7% shooting in the semifinals.  And I think they will be good enough defensively to keep this UNDER the 215-point total in the NBA Cup Championship Game.  It also benefits both teams defensively to have two days off in between games to prepare to stop one another.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Thunder NBA Cup No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by double-digits.  That includes their 118-104 win over Dallas and their 111-96 win over Houston in the quarterfinals and semifinals of the NBA Cup, respectively.

The Thunder rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating which is why they can be trusted every night.  And that's where a big difference in this NBA Cup Championship Game lies.  The Milwaukee Bucks rank 13th in the NBA in defensive rating and really struggle to defend opposing point guards.

The Bucks had a very easy path to get here.  They got to face the Magic without their top two scorers in Banchero and Wagner in the quarterfinals and were still life and death to win that game in a 114-109 victory.  They needed a late surge to put away the Atlanta Hawks 110-102 in the semifinals.  The Hawks were far and away the worst team that made the NBA Cup Quarterfinals.

So this is a big step up in class for the Bucks here after facing the short-handed Magic and the awful Hawks.  Now they must face arguably the best team in the NBA in the Thunder, and I don't expect it to go well for them in the Championship Game.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Clippers OVER 222.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy.  They rank 13th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  But they have some firepower on offense when healthy.

The OVER is 4-0 in Utah's last four games overall combining for 239 points with Oklahoma City, 240 points with Portland, 238 with Sacramento and 260 with Phoenix.  They had Markkanen, Sexton and Clarkson on the floor at the same time against Phoenix and scored 126 points.  They haven't had those three on the court at the same time much this season until recently.

The Clippers are more of an under team with a good defense and suspect offense, but that's why this total is so low.  I'm fully expecting one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight.  They have scored 127, 126, 125 and 121 points in four of their last nine games and I think they will get 120-plus in this one.  

The Clippers and Jazz have combined for at least 219 points in each of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis -4

The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy and have quietly gone 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with seven wins by 11 points or more.  They are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now, and I expect them to make easy work of the struggling Los Angeles Lakers tonight.

The Lakers are 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  LeBron James is questionable, Anthony Davis is banged up, and the Lakers are just a mess right now.  Their three wins during this stretch have come against the Blazers, Jazz and Spurs, which are three of the worst teams in the West.  They won't be able to hang with the Grizzlies with or without LeBron today.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* Rockets/Thunder NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 214

Some great defense is being played in the NBA Cup quarterfinals and beyond.  These are like playoff games with the defensive intensity high, and refs letting more physical contact go.  The UNDER went 3-1 in quarterfinals games earlier this week.

This is a matchup between the two best defensive teams in the NBA Saturday.  The Thunder rank 1st in defensive rating allowing 103.4 points per 100 possessions, while the Rockets rank 2nd allowing 105.1 points per 100 possessions.

The Rockets were in the ultimate defensive battle against the Warriors in the quarterfinals winning 91-90 for just 181 combined points.  The Thunder beat the Mavericks 118-104 completing locking down Luka Doncic and company as nobody from Dallas scored more than 19 points.

The Thunder are allowing 103.8 points per game on 42.7% shooting this season.  The Rockets are allowing 105.9 points per game on 43.4% shooting.  These are two of the most athletic teams in the league that can guard all five positions.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Hawks/Bucks NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 229

Some great defense is being played in the NBA Cup quarterfinals and beyond.  These are like playoff games with the defensive intensity high, and refs letting more physical contact go.  The UNDER went 3-1 in quarterfinals games earlier this week.

The Hawks beat the Knicks 108-100 for just 208 combined points and the Bucks beat the Magic 114-109 for just 223 combined points.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Hawks and Bucks in 11 days, so familiarity will be a factor and favor defense.

The Hawks won that game 119-104 for just 223 combined points on December 4th.  I think given the circumstances of this being a win-or-go-home situation, there's value with the UNDER 229 in the rematch today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Jazz OVER 231

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 29th in defensive rating only ahead of the Wizards.  They also like to play fast and are as healthy as they have been in a while, so their offense should be better.

The Phoenix Suns get Kevin Durant back tonight and are back to almost full strength with the exception of Jusuf Nurkic.  They are an elite offensive team as long as the Big 3 of Durant, Booker and Beal are all on the court at the same time, which is the case right now.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Jazz and Suns with 230 or more combined points in all five meetings, including 232 or more in each of their last four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -10

The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy and have quietly gone 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with six wins by 11 points or more.  That's why I'm willing to lay double-digits with them tonight hosting the Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets are 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall and playing very banged up.  I don't think they can hang with this current version of the Grizzlies, who are actually playing with double-revenge after losing two earlier meetings this season to the Nets back when they weren't as healthy as they are now.  It will be a different story this time around with Memphis winning in a blowout.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/76ers OVER 226.5

The Indiana Pacers remain a dead nuts OVER team this season going 16-9 OVER in all games.  They rank 6th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  They are getting healthier to add more offense to their arsenal, and their post defense is dreadful.

The Philadelphia 76ers will have Maxey, Embiid and George all healthy for basically the first time this season.  They are going to start scoring a lot more points as long as these three are on the court at the same time, so this is a 'buy low' spot on the OVER for them.

The OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the Pacers and 76ers with 232 or more combined points in all seven meetings, and 255 or more combined points in six of those seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Pelicans OVER 231.5

The Sacramento Kings have gotten healthy, moved Malik Monk into the starting lineup and they are thriving offensively right now as a result.  They have scored at least 120 points in four of their last five games, including 141 and 140 in regulation in their last two games.

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten healthier with McCollum, Murray, Murphy and Jones all recently returning from injury.  These guys are starting to gel in the starting lineup alongside Missi.  Brandon Boston Jr. (12.1 PPG) has been one of the most improved players in the NBA off the bench.

The OVER is 4-0 in Pelicans last four games overall with 228 or more combined points in all four, including 236 or more combined points in three of them.  The Pelicans and Kings have combined for at least 233 points in three of their last four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons 12.5

The Detroit Pistons are fully healthy right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  After covering in a 130-120 loss as 12-point road dogs at Boston, the Pistons upset the Knicks 120-111 as 8-point road dogs in their last two games coming into this one.

Now the Pistons are rested and ready to go for revenge on the Celtics here a week later.  They have had the last four days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days.  I think they give the Celtics another run for their money tonight as 12.5-point dogs in the rematch.

The Celtics are overvalued after winning the title last year.  That is evidenced by the fact that they are 9-15 ATS in all games this season.  They have just two wins by more than 12 points in their last 11 games.  Both Jayson Tatum and Al Horford are questionable, and they will be without Sam Houser, who is doubtful.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

20* Warriors/Rockets NBA Cup No-Brainer on Houston -2.5

The Houston Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 16-8 SU & 16-8 ATS and fully healthy right now.  Both Fred Van Vleet (16.0 PPG, 5.9 APG) and Tari Eason (11.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG) sat out their last game and were on the injury report heading into this game, but both are expected to play.

The Rockets are clearly taking this NBA Cup seriously.  They went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their first three Group Stage games to clinch their spot in the quarterfinals.  They beat the Clippers by 21 and the Blazers by 28 in their two home games, and they upset the Timberwolves by 6 on the road.  Their 4th Group Stage game against the Kings was meaningless and they played like it in a 9-point road loss.

Now the Rockets are extra motivated to get over this Golden State hurdle.  They have lost 15 consecutive meetings with the Warriors, including a OT loss at home and a 6-point loss on the road in their first two meetings this season.  I think it will be a different story this time around with one of the best home atmospheres for any NBA game this season as fans are excited about finally having a contender in Houston.  The Rockets are 9-3 SU at home this season.

Golden State is 2-6 SU & 3-4-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Steve Kerr still cannot figure out a rotation that works for the Warriors playing up to a 12-man rotation at times.  The loss of backup PG De'Anthony Melton really threw the rotation off and the Warriors haven't been able to figure it out since.

I don't like the way this team is trending heading into the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but I think they are getting a lot of respect just because they are the Warriors.  Andrew Wiggins is questionable with an ankle injury and may not go, and even if he does he won't be 100%.  Draymond Green and Steph Curry are both playing banged up as well.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* Magic/Bucks NBA Cup No-Brainer on Milwaukee -7

The Milwaukee Bucks proved they are taking the NBA Cup seriously by going 4-0 in group play with the best point differential (+50) in the entire NBA.  That has given them the No. 1 seed in the East and an excellent chance to advance to Las Vegas.

The Bucks are healthier right now than they have been all season and a dangerous team when that's the case.  Both Giannis and Lillard are healthy, and now they have Khris Middleton back in the rotation for the first time all season.

The Orlando Magic are without their two best players in Paulo Banchero (29.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 5.6 APG) and Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.7 APG).  Those two account for half of their 107.6 points per game average offensively.

In their first game without Wagner, they were able to beat the short-handed Phoenix Suns 115-110 who were without both Durant and Nurkic.  That game was at home, and while the Magic are 10-0 SU at home this season, they are just 7-9 SU on the road.

The last time the Magic beat the Bucks was at home and Wagner and Banchero combined for 51 points.  The Bucks didn't have Giannis for that game either.  The Bucks won 117-99 over the Magic in their last meeting in Milwaukee despite being without Giannis.  Wagner and Banchero combined for 52 points in the meeting prior in a 118-114 loss at Milwaukee.  And in the meeting prior, the Magic won 112-97 in Orlando with no Lillard and Banchero and Wagner combining for 50 points.

The Bucks are 16-2 SU in their last 18 meetings with the Magic with 15 of those 16 wins coming by 17 points or more.  It's safe to say the losses of Banchro and Wagner will be felt tonight for the Magic especially up against a fully healthy Bucks team, which hasn't been the case in recent meetings.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +6

The New York Knicks have their NBA Cup quarterfinal game on deck Wednesday.  I think they'll be overlooking the Toronto Raptors and looking ahead to that game.  I don't think we get the Knicks' best effort as a result.

The Knicks have benefited from a very soft schedule here of late.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five games but lost outright to Detroit as 8-point home favorites.  They also beat Charlotte, Orlando and New Orleans at home which are three of the most banged up teams in the NBA right now.  They also only beat Charlotte by 1 on the road during this stretch as 13-point favorites.

The Toronto Raptors have been one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA this season and they continue to be as 6-point home dogs tonight.  The Raptors are 16-8 ATS in all games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season right now and just took a fully healthy Mavericks team to the wire at home last time out.

The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games with four outright upsets over the Pacers (twice), Timberwolves and Heat.  They will take the unmotivated Knicks to the wire again tonight and possibly pull off another upset.  Bet the Raptors Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets will be highly motivated for a win tonight coming off two consecutive losses.  The Rockets are still 15-8 SU & 15-8 ATS this season and one of the best teams in the NBA.  I expect them to bounce back, especially since they're rested after having the last two days off.

The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a 108-80 loss to the Timberwolves.  They are battling a laundry list of injuries right now as James Harden suffered a groin injury in that loss and is questionable.  They were already without Kawhi and Mann, and they could be without Dunn as well.  I just don't like this Clippers lineup right now.

The Rockets clearly like facing the Clippers as they have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 21, 11 and 8 points.  Two of those wins came earlier this season and the Clippers were much healthier for both of those games than they are now.  Bet the Rockets Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Kings OVER 232.5

The Utah Jazz have gone OVER the total in their last two games combining for 239 points with Oklahoma City and 240 points with Portland.  The Sacramento Kings have gotten healthy and are coming off a 140-113 win over the Spurs for 253 combined points.  The OVER is 5-2 in their last seven games overall.

The Kings and Jazz have combined for at least 232 points in eight of their last 10 meetings, and 228 or more in 11 of their last 12.  This has been a high-scoring series and it will continue to be tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday TOTAL DOMINATOR on Suns/Magic UNDER 210

Injuries to both teams are the reason I'm on the UNDER tonight.  Orlando was already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (29.0 PPG) and now they just lost second-leading scorer Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG) last time out.  Points are going to be very hard to come by for the Magic moving forward without these two.

The Phoenix Suns are without leading scorer Kevin Durant (25.8 PPG) and Jusuf Nurkic (8.9 PPG).  They are having to play a more defensive-minded lineup without these two, including Mason Plumlee at center.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  These teams combined for just 208 points in their first meeting this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Atlanta Hawks have gotten healthy and are playing up tot heir potential. They have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall, including handing Cleveland two of its three losses this season in dominant efforts.

The spot really favors the Hawks tonight after having yesterday off.  They play a Denver Nuggets team that is banged up and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-113 loss in Washington last night as 11.5-point favorites.  That's a Wizards team that was playing awful prior and was missing half their team due to injury.

Nikola Jokic scored 56 points with 16 rebounds and it still wasn't enough.  He also played nearly 40 minutes and won't have much left in the tank.  Both Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are questionable to play tonight for the Nuggets as well.  I like Atlanta either way.  Bet the Hawks Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies +6.5

This is a very tough spot for the Boston Celtics.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 111-105 win over the Bucks last night as 8-point favorites.  They will now be playing their 5th game in 7 days as well.

All five starters played at least 34 minutes last night for the Celtics, and I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to rest one or two of them tonight.  Either way, the Celtics should not be 6.5-point favorites given the tough rest spot tonight.

The Grizzlies are 13-5 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They are showing what they are capable of when healthy.  They have all their best players healthy right now and are ready to give the Celtics a run for their money tonight.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +9

It's time to 'buy low' on the New Orleans Pelicans after opening 5-18 SU & 8-15 ATS this season.  Their struggles are directly tied to injuries, but they are as healthy as they have been in a long time now.

The Pelicans are coming off a 126-124 home win over the Suns and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Ingram, McCollum, Murray, Murphy and Jones are all back in the lineup after previously being out with injuries.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They are 17-5 SU & 13-7-2 ATS in their 22 games this season.  That includes a 6-1 SU & 4-2-1 ATS stretch in their last seven games.  But asking the Thunder to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Blazers OVER 225.5

Two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA square off Friday night when the Utah Jazz visit the Portland Trail Blazers.  The Jazz rank 29th in defensive rating while the Blazers rank 22nd.  I think both teams hang big numbers offensively tonight.

The Jazz and their opponents have gone for 225 or more combined points in six of their last eight games overall.  The Blazers and their opponents have gone for 221 or more combined points in five consecutive games, including 232 and 268 in their last two.

The Blazers and Jazz have combined for 236, 231 and 226 points in each of their last three meetings.  They have gone for 226 or more combined points seven of their last eight meetings, making for a 7-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 225.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +4

I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They are in a quick revenge spot getting to host the Orlando Magic again tonight after losing 106-102 to them just two days earlier on Wednesday at home.

The difference in this game is the 76ers will have Paul George back and they didn't have him on Wednesday.  That will make a huge difference, and it should be enough for the 76ers to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

It's a tough spot for the Magic, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 10th game in 17 days.  The 76ers will only be playing their 4th game in 9 days.  The 76ers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 meetings with the Magic.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* Rockets/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -3.5

The Houston Rockets are rolling going 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight.

But this is more a fade of the Golden State Warriors than anything.  Injuries have hit the Warriors hard in recent weeks, and that's a big reason they are 0-5 SU in their last five games overall with all five losses coming by 4 points or more.

Things took a turn for the worse when they lost key backup PG De'Anthony Melton (10.3 PPG) to a season-ending ACL injury.  They have gotten worse now as Curry (22.6 PPG) and Green (8.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.9 APG) will both be out tonight.  Andrew Wiggins (17.2 PPG) is also questionable to play tonight.  

Houston will be out for revenge not only from a 127-121 (OT) loss to the Warriors in their first meeting this season, but also because they have actually lost 14 consecutive games to Golden State.  That's why they will not have a letdown tonight.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -3

The Memphis Grizzlies are 12-5 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They are showing what they are capable of when healthy going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with each of their last five wins coming by double-digits.  Their lone loss came at Dallas by 5.

The Sacramento Kings are getting too much respect from the books tonight as only 3-point road underdogs here.  The Kings are 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet the Grizzlies Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +9.5

The Toronto Raptors are grossly undervalued this season.  They are 7-15 SU but 15-7 ATS as they have been competitive in almost every game.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, which has coincided with them being as healthy as they have been all season.

The Raptors are 5-4 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They only lost by 3 at Boston as 16.5-point dogs, upset the Pacers by 11 at home, upset the Timberwolves by 5 at home, upset the Heat by 3 at home and upset the Pacers by 11 at home.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home games with four outright upset victories.

The Thunder are still pretty good even without Chet Holmgren, but they haven't been nearly as dominant without him.  They are 5-3 SU & 3-4-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They just clinched a spot in the NBA Cup semifinals with a win in their last game, so this is a prime letdown spot for the Thunder.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Raptors OVER 226.5

Both the Thunder and Raptors rank in the Top 13 in the NBA in pace.  This game will see a lot of possessions, and this total of 226.5 is too low for a game involving these two teams tonight.

The Raptors have gotten healthier in recent weeks and we have seen their offensive output increase scoring 119 or more points in five of their last nine games overall.  They have combined for at least 230 points with their opponents in six of their last nine games during this stretch.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off a pair of shootouts combining for 235 points with Houston and 239 points with Utah.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 226 or more combined points in four consecutive meetings, including 239 or more in three of those four.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Timberwolves/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -3.5

The spot really favors the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with a 109-80 blowout of the Lakers at home two days ago.

The Los Angeles Clippers are a very tired team right now.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over Portland last night.  They will also be playing their 11th game in 18 days.  They remain without Kawhi Leonard, and now key bench piece Terance Mann just suffered a broken finger last night.

The Timberwolves are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Clippers.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +3.5

The Atlanta Hawks have gotten healthy and are playing up to their potential now.  They are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall beat the Cavaliers outright twice by 11 as 9-point road dogs and by 16 as 5.5-point home dogs.  The Cavaliers have only lost three games all season, and the other was to the Celtics by 3 on the road.

The spot really favors the Hawks tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Detroit last night.  That win clinched their spot in the NBA Cup East quarterfinals.  This is now a flat spot for the Bucks as they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Hawks as they were to beat the Pistons last night.

The Hawks have actually won two of their last three trips to Milwaukee outright by 17 and by 15 points.  I fully expect them to win this game outright tonight as well.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Bucks OVER 237

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season and 20th in defensive rating. They are fully healthy for basically the first time all season and thriving offensively.  They have scored at least 117 points in five of their last six games overall.

The Milwaukee Bucks have also gotten healthy and have put up 122 or more points in five of their last six games overall.  They are a tough to tame as long as Giannis and Lillard are on the court at the same time.

The Bucks and Hawks have gone for 235, 253 and 237 combined points in their last three meetings.  This total of 237 is too short given these teams in their current state both very healthy and ready to run.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with two of their losses coming by 7 points or fewer.  The only exceptions were road losses to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Thunder, Rockets and Grizzlies.

The Los Angeles Clippers are getting too much respect for their 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS run in their last nine games overall.  I think this is a letdown spot for them off thier upset home win over the Nuggets by 4 as 3-point dogs.

The Clippers have basically been eliminated from NBA Cup contention sitting at 1-2 in their group with a -6 point differential.  They trail the 3-0 Thunder who have a +55 point differential.

The Blazers are actually 2-1 in the same group with a legitimate shot to advance.  They will actually be the more motivated team if anything tonight.  They beat the Clippers 106-105 as 8-point road dogs earlier this season in their first meeting.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +1

The Houston Rockets are 3-0 in NBA Cup play this season with a +55 point differential.  They are taking these NBA Cup games as seriously as anyone, and they should not be underdogs to the Sacramento Kings tonight.

The Kings are 0-3 in NBA Cup play and have been eliminated.  They won't be nearly as motivated as the Rockets as a result, and they just aren't playing well enough right now to be favored in this contest.

The Rockets are 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall with one of the losses coming by a single point.  The Kings are 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  While the Rockets are fully healthy, the Kings are without Trey Lyles and could be without Kevin Huerter tonight.

The Rockets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 8, 25 and 18 points.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Thunder OVER 221.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are tied with the Suns and Spurs at 2-1 in their group.  Point differential is very close between all three, so the Thunder will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters tonight.  And that's a big reason I'm on the OVER 221.5 between them and the Utah Jazz in this one.

The Thunder rank 11th in pace while the Jazz rank 13th, so both teams like to play fast.  The Jazz are 29th in defensive rating, so this is a very low total for a game involving Utah.  Each of Utah's last seven games have seen a total of 225 or higher.

It's also a pretty low total for a game involving Oklahoma City.  We have seen totals of 222.5 or higher in eight of their last nine games.  So this is certainly a 'buy low' on the OVER in a game involving both of these teams right now.  

The Jazz and Thunder have combined for at least 226 points in eight of their last nine meetings, making for a 8-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 221.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -4

It's time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers.  They sit at 4-14 SU & 5-13 ATS this season largely due to injuries to Embiid, George and Maxey.  Well they have both George and Maxey back healthy now, and they are coming off a 111-96 win at Detroit as 2-point dogs.

The 76ers are fresh and ready to go tonight.  They have had the last two days off, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  I'm expecting one of their best efforts of the season tonight since they are basically fully healthy now outside of Embiid and Drummond.

Speaking of health, the Hornets are extremely banged up right now, which is a big reason for their currently 5-game losing streak.  They are without three starters in Ball (31.1 PPG), Bridges (16.0 PPG) and Williams (10.4 PPG), and key bench player Mann (14.1 PPG) is out as well.  That's four of their top six scorers.

The 76ers are 7-0 SU in their last seven meetings with the Hornets with six wins by 7 points or more.  Bet the 76ers Tuesday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +7.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Dallas Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 106-94 win in the altitude in Salt Lake City against the Utah Jazz last night.

Making matters worse for the Mavericks is the fact that they are very short-handed right now.  Doncic, Thompson, Marshall, Gafford and Exum are all either out or questionable.  Irving played 36 minutes last night and Washington 34.

The Blazers have been grossly undervalued in recent weeks going 5-4 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The highlights have been outright upset wins over the Timberwolves as 9-point dogs, the Timberwolves as 10-point dogs, the Hawks as 4-point dogs, the Rockets as 11.5-point dogs and the Kings as 7.5-point dogs.  They have a shot to win this game outright as well given the horrible spot for Dallas.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* Celtics/Cavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Cleveland +1

The Cleveland Cavaliers were knocked out of the playoffs by the Boston Celtics last year.  The Cavaliers then had their 15-0 start to the season come to an end in a 120-117 loss at Boston as 6.5-point dogs on November 19th.  It's safe to say the Cavaliers will be highly motivated for revenge when they get to host the Celtics this time around Sunday.

While the Cavaliers are almost fully healthy, the Celtics are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now with Horford, Holiday, Porzingis and White all listed as questionable for this one.  I would like the Cavaliers to win this game even if all four of those guys play, so it would only be a bonus if any of them sit.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Grizzlies UNDER 244

The Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies are both teams that like to play fast.  But this total is too high, and there's a ton of value on the UNDER.

Indiana isn't playing as fast as last season ranking 8th in pace.  A big reason they cannot play as fast is because they are short-handed right now due to injury.  They are without Nesmith and Sheppard and will likely remain without Nembhard today.

The Pacers and their opponents have combined for 236 or fewer points in four consecutive games.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for 242 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 226, 219 and 212 combined points between the Pacers and Grizzlies.  They have combined for 242 or fewer points in six consecutive meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

The Atlanta Hawks are fully healthy and playing up to their potential. After upsetting the Cleveland Cavaliers 135-124 as 9.5-point road dogs, they backed it up with an even more impressive 117-101 win as 6-point home dogs.

Now the Hawks hit the road to take on a Charlotte Hornets team that is dealing with a ton of injuries right now.  The Hornets have Ball, Mann, Bridges, Richards and both Williams either out or questionable tonight after not playing last night.  Now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back while also short-handed, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

The Hawks can handle these back-to-back situations better than the Hornets right now because they are fully healthy and a deep team.  This price is a little short on the Hawks tonight given how they are playing, plus all the injuries the Hornets are dealing with in this back-to-back spot.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

15* NBA Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +8.5

The Toronto Raptors are 13-6 ATS this season and have been very competitive in almost every game, especially here of late.  The Raptors are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with a 2-point loss at Detroit and a 3-point loss at Boston as 16.5-point dogs.

The Raptors won 119-93 as 1.5-point dogs at New Orleans last time out to just show how undervalued they really are right now.  They are catching too many points in Miami as 8.5-point dogs as well.

The Heat aren't exactly blowing out the competition.  They are 8-8 SU & 7-9 ATS this season with just three wins by more than 8 points all season.

I don't see the Heat being that motivated to win this NBA Cup game tonight.  They lost their last NBA Cup game to the Bucks at home to fall to 1-2 in NBA Cup play this season, while the Bucks improved to 3-0. That game was their last stand if they wanted to advance in the NBA Cup, but they are all but done for now.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* Thunder/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City ML -135

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 7 days with their lone result during this stretch being a 130-109 blowout as 3.5-point favorites at Sacramento.

The Golden State Warriors are broken since losing De'Anthony Melton (10.3 PPG) to a season-ending ACL injury.  He was huge for them off the bench in giving Stephen Curry (22.4 PPG) a breather.  Now Curry injured his knee last game and is highly questionable to play tonight.  My best guess is the Warriors will be cautious and sit him.  Jonathan Kuminga (13.3 PPG) is also questionable with an illness.

The Warriors are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only beat a depleted Pelicans team by 4 as 10.5-point favorites.  They lost outright by 10 as 3.5-point favorites at San Antonio.  And they lost outright by 8 as 13-point home favorites against a depleted Nets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The rest spot is much worse for the Warriors, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  The Thunder should be bigger favorites tonight, and this line will balloon if Curry is ruled out.  I like OKC to win the game either way.  Bet the Thunder on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +10.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Orlando Magic tonight.  The Magic are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have only been favored by double-digits once during this stretch, so the price is getting very high to back them now.

That double-digit favorite role came against the lowly Washington Wizards, who the Bulls just beat 127-108 last night.  And because of the blowout nature of that win, the Bulls weren't pressed to play their starters big minutes.

The Bulls should still be pretty fresh tonight, especially since they had two days off prior to that win over the Wizards.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 4 days.  This line is adjusted up too much for the Bulls playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and we'll take advantage.  

In the last nine meetings between Chicago and Orlando, the Bulls have only lost once by more than 9 points.  This line is inflated.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But that's the only reason this line is only Miami -3 over Charlotte.  I think this number is adjusted down too much for the spot for Miami.

I think the Heat will come back motivated from their 3-point loss to the Bucks last night.  The Heat should still be pretty fresh when you consider this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days.  They are also fully healthy right now with a pretty deep bench, so they can handle these back-to-backs better than most.

Speaking of health, the Charlotte Hornets will be without four of their top six scorers in Bridges (16.0 PPG), Mann (14.1 PPG), Richards (11.0 PPG) and Williams (10.4 PPG).  It did not go well for the Hornets last time out losing 95-84 at home to the Orlando Magic, who were without Suggs and Banchero.

The Heat own the Hornets going 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  That domination should continue tonight given how short-handed Charlotte is right now.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* Lakers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They are rested and motivated and getting healthy.  They have been off since November 20th, getting the last five days off.  This extra rest is allowing both Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal to return from injury tonight, so the Suns are at full strength for basically the first time this season.

It's great timing for this NBA Cup game against the Los Angeles Lakers, the team that is in 1st place in their group at 2-0 this season with a +11 point differential.  The Suns are 1-1 with a -8 differential, so this is a must-win for them if they want to advance out of group play.  The Lakers could actually afford a loss, but obviously they don't want to.  I just think the motivation is higher for the Suns given the current standings.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Getting the Suns as only 2-point home favorites tonight given the situation is a gift.  Bet the Suns Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Miami -2

The Miami Heat are fully healthy and rested right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days and will be motivated for a NBA Cup win tonight.

The Heat will be extra motivated considering the Milwaukee Bucks are 2-0 with a +26 point differential in their group, while the Heat are 1-1 with a +11 point differential.  They have a chance to catch and even surpass the Bucks in their group if they win by 15-plus.  But at the very least they have to win this game if they want to get out of their group.

The Bucks won't be nearly as motivated knowing they are sitting pretty in 1st place in their group.  Of course they don't want to lose, but I don't believe they'll be playing with the same type of edge that the Heat will be given the standings.  

This has been a good matchup for the Heat as they are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Thunder/Kings OVER 223.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder play fast racing 7th in the NBA in pace.  They will be looking to run even more tonight considering how fresh they'll be after having the last four days off.

The Sacramento Kings have gotten back to healthy with the exception of Malik Monk.  They have gone under the total in three straight games, which I think is what is keeping this total lower than it should be.  They had gone over the total in their previous three games.

The Kings and Thunder have combined for at least 231 points in six of their last eight meetings.  This is a very low total involving these two teams tonight at 223.5.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Atlanta Hawks are in a good spot tonight coming in on two days' rest and coming off two straight blowout road losses to the Bulls and Warriors.  The Hawks are now fully healthy for basically the first time all season and this is a good team to 'buy low' on moving forward because of it.

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks and the main reason for this play.  The Mavericks are coming off a 123-118 (OT) road loss at Miami last night.  They will now be playing not only the 2nd of a back-to-back off an OT game, but their 3rd road game in 4 days after playing in Denver on Friday.

Kyrie Irving played 39 minutes and PJ Washington 39 minutes last night.  What makes this situation even more difficult for the Mavericks is the fact that they are without their best player in Luka Doncic.  I'll gladly take the rested, healthy Hawks over the tired, short-handed Mavericks tonight.  Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +2

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a 113-98 win over the Brooklyn Nets at home as 3-point favorites.  They just got Tyrese Maxey back from injury and he is quickly becoming their best player and put up 26 points in the win.  The 76ers have found a gem in Jared McCain, who has now scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.

Now the 76ers host a Los Angeles Clippers team that remains without Kawhi Leonard, and one that just lost Norman Powell (23.3 PPG, 48.7% 3-pointers) to injury.  Powell is among the favorites to win Most Improve Player.

The Clippers are getting a lot of respect now as road favorites following a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS run in four consecutive home games including upset wins over the Warriors, Magic and Kings.  I think this is where there come back down to reality without Powell, and the wrong team is favored here.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat have been off since November 18th.  They have had five days of rest in between games and should come through with one of their best efforts of the season today as a result.  They are also fully healthy for basically the first time all season.

The Mavericks were able to upset the short-handed Denver Nuggets in an NBA Cup game on Friday on the road.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here, and I just think it's asking a lot of them to win consecutive road games here without Luka Doncic (28.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 7.6 APG).  Bet the Heat Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers +12.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 116-88 in a NBA Cup game last night to the Rockets, who were motivated.  I don't think the Rockets will be nearly as motivated tonight to beat this team twice in two days.

The Blazers are in the much better rest spot with both teams playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. This is just the 4th game in 11 days for the Blazers, while it will be the 5th game in 7 days and the 9th game in 14 days for the Rockets.

The Blazers also shot just 33% last night including 11-of-43 (25.6%) from 3-point range.  I can't see them shooting nearly that poorly again in the rematch.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

15* Pacers/Bucks Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on OVER 235.5

The Indiana Pacers like to play with pace and they rank 23rd in defensive rating.  They profile as an OVER team.  The Milwaukee Bucks just got Damian Lillard back and are fully healthy with the exception of Middleton.  This game profiles as a shootout.

These NBA Cup games can get pretty wild in the 4th quarter because point differential is the tiebreaker in group play.  You see favorites not dribble the ball out, and the team that is down continuing to play the foul game to try and stay alive as long as possible.

Indiana is 11-4 OVER in all games this season and are coming off 249 combined points with Toronto and 243 combined points with Houston in their last two games.  In their four regular season meetings last season, the Pacers and Bucks went for 247, 266, 235 and 272 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Bulls OVER 245.5

The Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls are the two most dead nuts OVER teams in the NBA this season.  The Bulls rank 1st in pace while the Hawks rank 2nd in pace.  The Bulls rank 27th in defensive rating while the Hawks rank 20th.

The Hawks are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  The Bulls are fully healthy outside of Ball and Williams.  They have been a much better offensive team since getting Zach LaVine back from injury.

This will be the 2nd meeting between the Hawks and Bulls this season.  The Bulls won 125-113 for 238 combined points on November 9th in that first meeting.  But that game died in the 4th quarter with just 50 combined points.  

I think this 4th quarter will be much different as whoever is ahead will be motivated to win by as much as possible with point differential being the tiebreaker in group play in these NBA Cup games.  Get ready for a much more high-scoring 4th quarter tonight that should sail over this 245.5-point total. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Celtics/Wizards OVER 236

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They play a Boston Celtics team that is shooting even more 3-pointers this season while ranking 3rd in offensive rating, so the Celtics are going to hang a big number on them.

This is a NBA Cup game so the Celtics want to improve their point differential, which is the tiebreaker in group play.  That means they will be keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters.

In their last NBA Cup game, the Wizards showed they won't quit in their 130-139 loss at San Antonio.  That game saw 70 combined points in the 4th quarter including 39 from Washington.  The Wizards will keep coming for four quarters as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -1

The Detroit Pistons have been better than expected this season at 7-9 SU & 9-6-1 ATS in 16 games.  They have won four of their last seven coming in.  Prior to that, they lost 108-107 at the buzzer to the Charlotte Hornets.

Now the Pistons will be out for revenge tonight which is why I love this spot for them.  The Pistons are fully healthy while the Hornets are not.  They are without two centers in Williams and Richards, starting SF Bridges is questionable and key bench PG Tre Mann is banged up.

The Pistons are also the more rested team coming in on two days' rest, while the Hornets will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Houston Rockets are 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS this season and one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  They are also one of the healthiest teams in the NBA and brought back pretty much everyone from last year, so their chemistry is great in the early going.

That has been on display as the Rockets have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by a single points at Milwaukee.  Their last four wins have come by a combined 80 points, and by an average of 20 points per game.

Now the healthy Rockets get to face a very banged up Indiana Pacers team that will be without Wiseman, Jackson, Nesmith and Nembhard, plus Turner, Sheppard and Walker are all questionable.  The Pacers have clearly been hampered by these injuries going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games, no loss worse than their 130-119 loss at Toronto as 3.5-point favorites last time out.

Houston has actually lost nine consecutive meetings with Indiana including losses by 6 and 3 points in their two meetings last season.  I think head coach Ime Udoka will play the revenge card tonight and remind his players of that losing streak, and thus we'll see an inspired effort from them tonight.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +12

Injuries are starting to pile up for the Oklahoma City Thunder and they aren't playing that well since losing their star big man in Chet Holmgren.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Mavericks as 7-point home favorites who were without Luka Doncic, and to the Spurs as 9.5-point favorites who were without Victor Wembenyama.

Now the Thunder are in a brutal rest spot tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They won't handle this situation very well with how short-handed they are right now, and they have no business being 12-point favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers given the spot.

The Blazers are as fresh as can be.  They will be paying just their 2nd game in 7 days.  They are also one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Timberwolves by 14 as 9-point dogs, then came back the next night and backed it up with an 8-point win over the Timberwolves as 10-point dogs.  They also upset the Hawks by 4 as 4-point dogs last time out.  This line is way out of whack given the circumstances.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Bulls have been playing much better since getting Zach LaVine back from injury.  They are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset wins over the Knicks as 8.5-point road dogs, the Hawks as 2.5-point road dogs and the Pistons as 4-point road dogs.  They are playing their best basketball on the road this season.

Now they head to Milwaukee to take on a Bucks team that is grossly overvalued.  The Bucks are 5-9-1 SU & 4-9-1 ATS with one of the worst rosters in the league outside of Giannis and Lillard.

The Bulls already beat the Bucks 133-122 as 9.5-point dogs in Milwaukee in their first meeting this season.  Lillard and Giannis combined for 66 points on 26-of-44 shooting and the Bucks still lost by double-digits.  That says all you need to know about the rest of their roster.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -14.5

I put this play in as soon as I saw the Pelicans were going to rest Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy.  They were already without Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Jordan Hawkins and Dejounte Murray.  Those are their top 6 leading scorers this season that they will be without tonight.  Mercy.

The Pelicans are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS this season and it is getting worse before it gets better.  The Pelicans are 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall with their lone win coming against a Nuggets team that was without Jokic and Gordon.  Five of their eight losses have come by 15 points or more, including their 41-point loss at Dallas last night.

Now the Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and won't have Ingram and Murphy, who combined for 36 of their 91 points in that 132-91 loss to the Mavericks last night.  This is literally a G-League team right now with the players they are putting on the court.

I know since I released this play the Cavaliers didn't get the best injury news with Darius Garland out due to rest.  But they should still have Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley on the court, and they'll have more than enough firepower to beat the Pelicans by 15-plus.

I originally wasn't going to take the Cavaliers because of the spot off their first loss of the season to the Celtics by 3 last night.  But teams who had a 12-game or more winning streak snapped are 43-26-2 ATS in their next game, and teams that had a 14-game or more winning streak snapped are 27-10 ATS in their next game.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5

Note: I locked in this play as soon as I saw Nikola Jokic was out.  It would still be a 20* Top Play up to -6.

The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy with the exception of JA Morant, but they have proven they can play without him.  The Grizzlies went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS before showing they could play with two of the best teams in the West in the Lakers and Warriors on the road.

I was almost more impressed that they only lost by 5 to the Lakers as 7.5-point road dogs and by 5 to the Warriors as 7-point road dogs without Morant than I was with their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS run before that.  The Grizzlies are now 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and they are rested playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The Grizzlies have absolutely dominated in their last four home games going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS, beating the Wizards by 24 as 7.5-point favorites, the Lakers by 17 as 4-point favorites, the Bucks by 23 as 6.5-point underdogs and the Nuggets by 15 as 6-point favorites.  I look for them to crush the short-handed Denver Nuggets again tonight.

The Nuggets will be without both Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon tonight, and they have no shot of winning this game without these two.  We saw their first game without Jokic they lost 101-94 at New Orleans as 2-point favorites.  And that's a Pelicans team that is missing more key players to injury than any team in the NBA right now.

The Nuggets went on to lose 105-90 at Memphis last time out.  And the Grizzlies called off the dogs in the 4th quarter sitting their starters after a 20-point lead entering the final period.  Normally I'd be worried about a letdown for a team like Memphis in this spot, but not with the NBA Cup on the line.  The Grizzlies are motivated to win the NBA Cup and with point differential being a tiebreaker, I expect them to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters and try to run it up.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Nets OVER 220.5

This is a pretty low total for an NBA Cup game where both the Charlotte Hornets and Brooklyn Nets will be keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters knowing that point differential matters for tiebreakers.  I would like this OVER 220.5 even if that wasn't a factor, but it's certainly a factor tonight.

The Hornets have to go more small ball right now without C Mark Williams and C Nick Richards.  They have gone OVER the total in their last two games coming in combining for 229 points with the Bucks and 242 points with the Cavaliers.

The Nets also have to go more small ball right now without C Nic Claxton and without fellow C Day'Ron Sharpe.  The OVER is 3-1 in Nets last four games overall including 253 combined points with the Celtics and 246 combined points with the Knicks, which was a NBA Cup game.

The Nets and Hornets have combined for at least 229 points in six of their last nine meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Cavs/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +5.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 15-0 SU & 11-4 ATS this season and dodging letdown spots left and right.  It's safe to say they won't be having a letdown tonight considering the Celtics knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  They want to make a statement tonight and prove they can beat the defending champs.

The Cavaliers were ravaged by injuries in the playoffs last year playing without both Mitchell and Allen by the end of the series.  But they are much healthier now with Mitchell, Allen, Mobley and Garland all playing tonight.  That's one of the best quartets in the NBA and it's a big reason the Cavaliers are 15-0 right now.

It's also due to the change in philosophy with head coach Kenny Atkinson, who has transformed the Cavaliers into the league's top-ranked offense, even ahead of the Celtics.  They are playing faster and shooting more 3-pointers and the ball isn't sticking in Mitchell's hands like it used to.

Boston is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall with some very alarming performances.  They Celtics lost outright to the Hawks as 16-point home dogs and needed OT to beat the Raptors by 3 as 16.5-point favorites in their last two home games.  I just think this team is going through the motions after winning the title, and although they will be motivated tonight, they won't be as motivated as Cleveland.  The Cavaliers are the better team right now and they'll prove it tonight.  Bet the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rockets/Bucks OVER 224

Both the Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks rank in the top half of the league in pace.  The Rockets are playing noticeably faster recently and it's paying off as they went for 143 points with the Bulls last night and 125 with the Clippers the game before.

But a big reason I'm on this OVER is because the Bucks get Damian Lillard back from injury tonight, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy as well.  The Bucks are much more of an OVER team when these two are healthy because they are one of the toughest duos to stop in the NBA.

The Bucks and Rockets have combined for at least 228 points in eight of their last 10 meetings, making for an 8-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 224-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pistons OVER 233.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They ranks 1st in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  The Bulls and their opponents have combined for at least 232 points in six consecutive games, including 238 or more five times.

The Detroit Pistons just scored 124 points against the Wizards last night after calling off the dogs in the 4th quarter in a blowout.  The Bulls just allowed 143 points to the Rockets last night in a blowout.  So while both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, both should still be pretty fresh considering no starter for either team played more than 30 minutes.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They get a chance at quick revenge after losing 124-122 as 8.5-point road dogs to the Knicks on Friday.  Now they come back as 9.5-point dogs in the rematch, and this number should have been adjusted down instead of up for the spot.

The Nets have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA this season going 10-3 ATS in their 13 games.  They have been competitive in almost all their losses, and asking the Knicks to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

The Knicks lack depth this season as they have been without Achiuwa and Robinson all season.  Towns and McBride are both questionable.  I like the Nets even if both guys go, and this line will crash if Towns doesn't play.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Blazers OVER 231.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-2 OVER in their 13 games this season with 232 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games.  That makes for a 12-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 231.5-point total.

What makes the Hawks are dead nuts OVER team is ranking 3rd in pace and 25th in defensive rating.  They play fast and they play no defense.  They are getting healthier and showing they have a deep team scoring 117 or more points in four of their last five games.

The Blazers also like to play faster this season ranking 9th in pace and 20th in defensive rating.  They are coming off a low-scoring game against the Timberwolves which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  It was the 2nd meeting in 2 days with the Timberwolves, who they combined for 230 points with the night before.  Minnesota shot 7-of-39 (18%) from 3-point range which is why it was so low-scoring.

Both teams are fresh and ready to run.  The Blazers have had the last three days off, while the Hawks will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies have gotten healthy with the exception of JA Morant, but they have proven they can play without him.  The Grizzlies went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS before showing they could play with two of the best teams in the West in the Lakers and Warriors on the road.

I was almost more impressed that they only lost by 5 to the Lakers as 7.5-point road dogs and by 5 to the Warriors as 7-point road dogs without Morant than I was with their 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS run before that.  Now they are highly motivated for a win coming back home, and they are rested playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.

The Grizzlies have absolutely dominated in their last three home games, beating the Wizards by 24 as 7.5-point favorites, the Lakers by 17 as 4-point favorties and the Bucks by 23 as 6.5-point underdogs.  I look for them to crush the short-handed Denver Nuggets tonight.

The Nuggets will be without both Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon tonight, and they have no shot of winning this game without these two.  We saw their first game without Jokic they lost 101-94 at New Orleans as 2-point favorites.  And that's a Pelicans team that is missing more key players to injury than any team in the NBA right now.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +11

The Sacramento Kings are in one of the worst spots I've seen this season, and given the spot, they should not be double-digit favorites over the Utah Jazz tonight.  This line is way off in my opinion.

Sacramento is coming off a 130-126 (OT) loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last night.  De'Aaron Fox played 44 minutes and scored 60 points and it still wasn't enough.  Keegan Murray played 45, Trey Lyles 41 and Sabonis 39 minutes.

These guys had to play such big minutes because the Kings are without DeMar DeRozan and arguably the league's best 6th man in Malik Monk right now.  That's going to make this back-to-back spot even more difficult on the Kings considering they are so short-handed right now.

Not only is it the 2nd of a back-to-back off an OT game, but the Kings will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days and their 10th game in 16 days.  Mercy.  The Jazz are 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last three games and playing much better since getting healthy. 

They upset the Mavs as 8-point home dogs, the Spurs as 6.5-point road dogs and the Bulls as 7.5-point road dogs.  They also only lost to the Suns by 8 at home during this stretch.  Utah will be playing just its 3rd game in 7 days and is the much fresher team to say the least.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves ML -120

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be highly motivated for a victory coming coming off three consecutive SU losses.  They are fully healthy tonight, and I expect them to respond in a big way with a road win at Sacramento.

The Kings just lost DeMar DeRozan (22.9 PPG) to injury with a back injury in their last game and he is doubtful tonight.  They are also without arguably the best 6th man in the entire NBA in Malik Monk (12.6 PPG).  I don't give them much of a chance of being competitive tonight without these two.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is actually 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Minnesota has won outright in four straight trips to Sacramento, including a 117-115 win on October 24th earlier this season.  DeRozan had 26 points and Monk 17 in that game.  That's a lot of production they will be missing.  Bet the Timberwolves on the Money Line Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Atlanta Hawks have no business being 9.5-point favorites against anyone.  They are 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS this season with two of those losses coming to tonight's opponent in the Washington Wizards.  They lost 121-119 as 7.5-point home favorites to the Wizards on October 30th and 133-120 as 5.5-point road favorites to the Wizards on October 30th.

No question the Hawks will be out for revenge, but asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Wizards just got one of their best players in Kyle Kuzma back from injury and have been more competitive with him in the lineup.  Kuzma had 25 points in that first meeting with the Hawks and didn't play in the 2nd, but the Wizards had seven different players score in double figures to make up for it.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* Lakers/Spurs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +3.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have huge home/road splits this season.  They are 6-0 SU at home but just 1-4 SU on the road with their lone win coming by 6 at hapless Toronto.  They lost by 4 at Phoenix, by 24 at Cleveland, by 12 at Detroit and by 17 at Memphis.

The Spurs also have big home/road splits this season.  The Spurs are 5-2 SU at home but just 1-4 SU on the road.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five home games with their lone loss coming by a single point.  They won by 9 over Washington, by 20 over Sacramento, by 13 over Portland and by 10 over Minnesota.

The Spurs are 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Lakers.  They have the answer for Anthony Davis that most teams don't in Wembenyama, who went for 50 points last game.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +11

The Chicago Bulls are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS since getting their best player in Zach LaVine back from injury.  They are now as healthy as any team in the NBA and it's starting to show.

The Bulls upset the Hawks 125-113 as 2.5-point road dogs and upset the Knicks 124-123 as 8.5-point road dogs.  Their lone loss came 119-113 as 8-point home dogs to Cleveland, and now they get a shot at quick revenge on the Cavaliers but are catching 11 points in the rematch.  This number is too high.

Cleveland is 13-0 SU this season, and with that perfect record comes expectations from the oddsmakers and the betting public that are tough to live up to.  We've seen that play out as the Cavaliers are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall escaping with close wins over the Nets by 5, the Bulls by 6 and the 76ers by 8.  If they win tonight, it won't be by more than 11 points.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Miami Heat +5

The Miami Heat are undervalued right now because they are without Jimmy Butler.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA and they can afford to be without him, especially with one of the best head coaches in the league in Eric Spoelstra guiding them.

Miami will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four of its last five games.  But three of those losses came by 1, 2 and 3 points so it's not like they haven't been competitive without Butler.  Getting 5 points with the Heat tonight is too much.

That's especially the case when you could argue the Pacers are dealing with more injuries than the Heat right now.  Indiana is without key scorers Nembhard and Nesmith, and they are lacking depth down low without both Wiseman and Jackson.

Miami has lost just once in its last nine meetings with Indiana by more than 3 points.  That makes for an 8-1 system backing the Heat pertaining to this 5-point spread.  Bet the Heat Friday.

20* Mavs/Jazz NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 231.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when fully healthy with Markkanen, Sexton, Collins, George and Clarkson on the floor at the same time.  They are a very good offensive team with these guys healthy, and they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The Jazz rank 7th in pace and 27th in defensive rating this season.  They are going to be without C Walker Kessler, who is actually one of their better defenders.  They will have to go more small ball with Collins playing the center position, making them even more of an OVER team tonight.

The Mavericks are playing faster this season ranking 12th in pace.  They added more shooting with Klay Thompson, but he isn't the defender he once was.  And defense has been optional for them of late going OVER the total in their last two games losing 120-117 at Golden State for 237 combined points and falling 122-120 at Denver for 242 combined points.

The Jazz are coming off 232 combined points with the Suns last time out at home and that's a Suns team that was missing Kevin Durant.  This total of 231.5 has been set too low given the current state of these two teams.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Blazers UNDER 221

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Not only will this be the 3rd meeting between the Blazers and Timberwolves already this season, but it will be the 2nd meeting in 2 days after these two just played last night.

Portland upset Minnesota 122-108 last night thanks to some lights out shooting that is not repeatable.  The Blazers shot 51% as a team including 18-of-32 (56%) from 3-point range.  Minnesota shot 51% as a team as well.  They also combined for 39-of-43 (90.1%) from the FT line.   Let's just say those shooting numbers are unlikely to happen again.

That game was played at a very slow pace as these are two of the slower teams in the NBA.  Now Portland lost starting PG Anfernee Simons to injury last night, and they are going to have to rely even more on defense without him moving forward.  This is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA without Simons.  Be the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +10

I'm not sure what world the San Antonio Spurs should be favored by double-digits against any team in the NBA, but it certainly isn't this one.  The Spurs are still one of the worst teams in the NBA, and I'll gladly fade them here laying double-digits to the Washington Wizards.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Wizards, who are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule of Miami, Golden State, Memphis, Orlando and Houston.  They finally get to take a big step down in class tonight against the Spurs.

The Wizards just got Kyle Kuzma back from injury in their last game at Houston and he came through with 18 points in a 15-point loss.  Having Kuzma and Jordan Poole healthy and on the court at the same time moving forward will make the Wizards much more competitive.  This game will go down to the wire tonight.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +8.5

The Chicago Bulls got their best player in Zach LaVine back from injury two games ago and have played two of their best games of the season since.  They upset Atlanta 125-113 as 2.5-point road underdogs and nearly handed the Cavaliers their first loss of the season, falling 119-113 as 8-point home dogs.

The Bulls had yesterday off and have a big rest advantage over the Knicks as a result.  The Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Philadelphia last night.  All five starters played at least 35 minutes for the Knicks last night, and they have one of the worst benches in the NBA so their starters are forced to play big minutes again this season.  They should not be favored by 8.5 points tonight given the tough rest spot.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the New Orleans Pelicans.  They are without three starters in Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum and Zion Williamson.  They are also without three key contributors off the bench in Jordan Hawkins, Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado.

It's no wonder the Pelicans are just 1-8 SU in their last nine games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.  Six of the eight losses came by 15 points or more, so we aren't asking much of the Thunder to cover this 14.5-point spread tonight.  The Pelicans even had some of these players healthy during this stretch, but now they have hit rock bottom in the injury department.

The Thunder did lose Chet Holmgren, but they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA and will be just fine without him in the short-term.  The Thunder are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Pelicans.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

The Brooklyn Nets are 9-2 ATS this season and one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They just lost 108-104 (OT) at Boston as 13.5-point underdogs on November 8th less than a week ago.  Now they are out for revenge here catching 8.5 points in the rematch.

The spot really favors the Nets not only because of the revenge factor, but also because of their rest advantage.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days.

Meanwhile, the Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 117-116 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks last night.  Tatum played 37 minutes, White 38 and Brown 36 last night.  Both Tatum and Brown were banged up recently and missed time, and I wouldn't be surprised if one or both sit tonight.

Either way, I think the Nets have what it takes to stay within the number against the Celtics for the 2nd time in 6 days.  Boston is grossly overvalued after winning the title last year.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.