20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Boston Celtics +8

The Cleveland Cavaliers have no business being this heavily favored over the Boston Celtics tonight. They aren't even going to show up for this game, so asking them to win by 9-plus points to beat is simply asking too much.

The reason they won't show up is because they were officially eliminated from the playoffs last night with their 116-119 road loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, coupled with Atlanta's win at Brooklyn. I look for them to suffer an emotional hangover from that defeat and to not even show up at all mentally tonight.

It's clear to me that Boston has not quit. It beat Charlotte 106-103 at home last night in a very meaningful game for the Bobcats. Each of its last four games have been decided by single-digits. In fact, 11 of its last 14 games have been decided by single-digits. This one will be as well, and I actually believe the Celtics have an excellent chance to win this game outright given the circumstances.

Boston goes for the season sweep over Cleveland tonight. This has been a one-sided series of late to say the least as the Celtics have taken six of the last eight meetings. Both of their losses during this stretch have come by 6 points or fewer. You would honestly be foolish to put your money on the Cavs tonight given the situation.

Cleveland is 10-27 ATS in its last 37 home games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days. The Cavaliers are 9-20 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on no rest. Take Boston Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +3

The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days tonight. Off a big win over Dallas yesterday to essentially clinch home-court advantage in the West, they do not care one bit to win this game Friday.

That is evident by the fact that head coach Greg Popovich is expected to rest both Tony Parker and Tim Duncan tonight. Without these two on the floor, this team just isn't very good. They certainly have no business even being favored tonight over a team that needs the win like Phoenix.

Indeed, the Suns are currently the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. They are only percentage points ahead of No. 8 seed Dallas, and one game ahead of No. 9 Memphis. A win tonight would go a long way in helping them inch closer to clinching a playoff spot.

Phoenix has been thriving under the pressure of all these must-win games down the stretch. In fact, it has won 10 of its last 12 games overall, which includes victories over Portland and OKC. This will only be its 2nd game in 5 days, so unlike San Antonio, it will be well-rested and ready to go tonight.

The Suns are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS loss. Phoenix is 27-11 ATS in its last 38 road games. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Phoenix is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 games when playing on one day of rest. The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Bet the Suns Friday.

15* Pacers/Heat NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana +6

Indiana rested its starters at just the right time against the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday. Somehow, resting all five starters, the Pacers were able to beat Milwaukee 104-102. Now, they find themselves in first place in the Eastern Conference with a half-game lead over Miami.

The Pacers had really been struggling up to this point, losing 12 of their last 20 overall. I believe this breather that the starters got, plus the new life with the No. 1 seed at stake tonight, will have this team playing very inspired basketball tonight. It will be enough to stay within 6 points or Miami, likely pulling off the upset.

The Heat haven't been playing that well themselves. They have actually lost 11 of their last 21 games overall, including two in a row to Brooklyn and Memphis. Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, Chris Andersen and Greg Oden are all questionable to return tonight. Even if they go, I still like Indiana's chances of covering.

This will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Heat, while the Pacers' starting five have essentially had the last four days off having last played on April 6. The two meetings between these teams this season were decided by a combined 4 points, so there's a very good chance this 6-point spread comes into play tonight. Roll with the Pacers Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks +5.5

The Brooklyn Nets have nothing to play for. They are three games behind Chicago and Toronto for the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in the East, and three in front of Charlotte and Washington for the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds. They are all but locked into fifth place in the East.

While the Nets likely won't show up tonight because of it, the Hawks have everything to play for. They lead the New York Knicks by two games for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. Given these motivational angles, the Hawks should not be an underdog in this match-up tonight.

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Nets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record. Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Southeast division opponents. Bet the Hawks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +5.5

The New York Knicks are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They trail the Atlanta Hawks by two games for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference with four games to go. That makes this a must-win game for them tonight.

New York has fought real hard over the past month just to give itself a chance to make the playoffs. It is not about to quit now. It has gone 12-5 in its last 17 games overall. Now, it has had four days off since last losing to Miami on the road on April 6, so it is well-rested and ready to go.

Toronto did beat New York by a combined 27 points in back-to-back games on December 27 and 28. However, Carmelo Anthony did not play in either of those contests. Anthony is expected to go tonight and should be healed from a shoulder injury suffered against Miami.

New York is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on three or more days of rest. The Raptors are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Take the Knicks Friday.

20* Spurs/Mavericks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas -2

The Dallas Mavericks are very close to clinching a playoff spot. They lead the 9th-place Memphis Grizzlies by 1.5 games with only three to play. They don't want to mess around as they'd like to clinch it as soon as possible to perhaps get their starters some rest in the finale.

Dallas has been handling the pressure of these huge games down the stretch very well. It has gone a perfect 4-0 in its last four games overall despite playing all four on the road. That included a 113-107 road victory over the Los Angeles Clippers last Thursday.

San Antonio is kind of limping into the playoffs as it essentially has little to play for right now. It leads Oklahoma City by three games for the No. 1 seed in the West with four to play, so it really has that locked up. It has certainly been playing like it the past couple games.

The Spurs are 1-2 in their last three games overall with blowout road losses to Oklahoma City (94-106) and Minnesota (91-110). Tony Parker is now resting a back injury and is doubtful to play tonight. Manu Ginobli is resting his calf injury and listed as doubtful as well. It's clear that the Spurs are more worried about getting healthy than winning right now.

Dallas will be motivated to put an end to an 8-game losing streak in this series. The Mavericks are 31-15 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

25* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers -3

The Los Angeles Clippers have a chance to pull within a half-game of the Oklahoma City Thunder for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with a victory tonight. That would be huge because they are likely to match up in the second round of the playoffs, and home-court advantage would be big. The Clippers would also own the tiebreaker having taken 3 of 4 from the Thunder this season.

The Pacific Division champion Clippers have been playing as well as anyone since a 125-117 road victory over the Thunder on February 23. They have gone 18-3 since that point while averaging 110.8 points per game. They lead the league in scoring at 107.8 points per game on the season and are clicking at the right time.

Los Angeles will be well-rested and ready to go having had two days off since a 120-97 home victory over the Lakers on Sunday. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, is running on fumes. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days after last night's win at Sacramento. This is one of the toughest situations for any team, especially this late in the year when everyone is already worn down.

The Clippers are 32-6 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.0 points per game. Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record, and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a big win over the San Antonio Spurs last night. That sets them up for a letdown spot here tonight against the Chicago Bulls. The T'Wolves will be fatigued, and the win wasn't really that impressive as the Spurs rested Tony Parker and are looking ahead to the playoffs.

Chicago, meanwhile, will be going full speed ahead tonight in hopes of earning the No. 3 seed in the East. It is currently tied with the Toronto Raptors with an identical 45-32 record for that No. 3 spot, but loses out via tiebreaker. Getting that No. 3 seed and likely avoiding Miami in the second round would actually be pretty big.

The Bulls have been acting like they're gunning for it over the last couple weeks as they've saved their best basketball of the season for last. They have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, winning four times by double-digits. That includes road wins over fellow Eastern Conference playoff contenders in Atlanta (105-92) and Washington (96-78).

Chicago will be well-rested and ready to go tonight. It has not played since Saturday's 18-point win over the Wizards, giving it three days off to rest and prepare for Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days. This is a short-handed team as it is with Chase Budinger out, and Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic listed as doubtful tonight.

The Bulls are 24-9 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. Minnesota is 35-55 ATS in April home games since 1996. The T'Wolves are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games after having won three of their last four games. The Timberwolves are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 0 days rest. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +13.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a huge money maker for me down the stretch of the season. There is this perception out there that they have packed it in, which has forced oddsmakers to set their lines way higher than they should be. These players clearly have not quit.

That's evident by the fact that Philadelphia is a sensational 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall. It has beaten both Detroit and Boston in two lof its last five games, and it has stayed withing single-digits of Atlanta on the road and Brooklyn at home during this same stretch. In fact, the 76ers have only lost by more than 10 points three times in their last 11 games, which were their three non-covers.

Asking Toronto to win by 14-plus points to beat us tonight is simply asking too much. That's especially the case when you consider that it could be without two starters in Kyle Lowry (17.4 ppg, 7.6 apg) and Amir Johnson (10.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg). Lowry has missed the past four games with a knee injury, while Johnson has sat out the last three games with an ankle injury. Both are currently listed as questionable, and it may be foolish to bring them back against a team like the 76ers.

This is an Atlantic Division rivalry folks, so the 76ers clearly aren't going to lay down for the Raptors. Despite going 0-3 against the Raptors in the first three meetings of this series, they have all been very competitive. The 76ers have lost all three meetings by 10 points or fewer, and I look for that trend to continue tonight with the possibility that they actually pull off the upset.

Philadelphia is a dominant 10-1 (91%) ATS in its last 11 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. The Raptors are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Brooklyn Nets are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They just beat the Miami Heat 88-87 last night, completing the four-game season sweep of the defending NBA champions. It's only human nature for these players to suffer a letdown off such a big accomplishment.

I look for the Orlando Magic to knock the Nets off their pedestal tonight. The Magic have not played since Saturday, having three days off to prepare for the Nets in this one. Meanwhile, Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days, which is a very tough situation this late in the season for any team.

The Magic clearly have not quit. They have gone 3-3 in their last six games overall, which includes wins over playoff contenders in Portland (95-85) and Charlotte (110-105). They also beat Minnesota (100-92) at home last time out, and what's important about that is the fact that the Timberwolves were coming off a 1-point victory over the Heat the night before, so they were in this same letdown spot that the Nets are in.

The Nets are just 16-23 on the road this season, while the Magic are a very respectable 18-20 at home. Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Orlando is 9-2 (82%) ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Magic are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games overall. Take Orlando Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Timberwolves UNDER 208.5

The San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves will take part in a defensive battle tonight. The books have set the bar way too high for this game, especially when you look at their recent head-to-head history and the injury concerns coming in.

The Spurs and Timberwolves have combined for 203 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings overall. Each of the last five meetings in Minnesota have seen 203 or fewer combined points as the games have tended to be lower scoring at the Target Center.

San Antonio will be without Tony Parker (16.8 ppg, 5.9 apg) tonight, while Minnesota is expected to be without Nikola Pekovic (17.4 ppg), Kevin Martin (19.2 ppg) and Chase Budinger (6.7 ppg). So, the Spurs are without their leading scorer, while the Timberwolves are without two of their top three scorers.

Minnesota is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus very good shooting teams that make at least 48% of their shots over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 8-0 in Spurs last eight games following an ATS win. The UNDER is 7-0 in Spurs last seven games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Throw in that they have combined for 203 or fewer points in their last five meetings in Minnesota, and we have a perfect combined 28-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +3

The Phoenix Suns (45-31) have been the most underrated team in the league this season, hands down. They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as they are a home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. I'll take advantage.

Phoenix is tied with Memphis for the No. 8 spot in the playoffs in the West, and one-half game behind Dallas for the No. 7 seed. It clearly won't be lacking any motivation tonight. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, appears to be stuck in the No. 2 spot without being able to move up or down barring a huge run or a big collapse. This game is much less important to the Thunder.

The Suns have handled the pressure very well down the stretch, winning seven of their last nine games overall, including a 109-93 victory at Portland as a 4.5-point underdog on Friday night. They have even won six of their last eight road games, and a big reason for their success has been the healthy return of Eric Bledsoe, who combines with Goran Dragac to form one of the best backcourts in the league.

Phoenix is 28-9 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or more of their attempts this season. The Suns are 13-2 ATS versus teams who are called for 2-plus more fouls than their opponents this season. Phoenix is 49-26 ATS in all games this season. The Suns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Phoenix is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 games when playing on one days rest. Roll with the Suns Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER 191

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs. I believe the books have set the bar too high in this one, and that it shouldn't be set above 190 points.

These teams are very familiar with one another due to their playoff battles over the past couple of seasons. They have gone to overtime in four of their last 10 meetings, and even if you count the overtimes, they have combined for less than 200 points in nine of those 10 contests. That's how low-scoring this series has been.

Both teams have plenty to be motivated about tonight. San Antonio is trying to inch closer to the No. 1 seed in the West, while Memphis is trying to hang on to one of the final playoff spots in the West. As a result, I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively to try and get a win tonight.

The UNDER is 20-8 in Grizzlies last 28 road games. The UNDER is 10-3 in Grizzlies last 13 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games overall. The UNDER is 8-1 in Spurs last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing tremendous value as a double-digit home underdog to the Brooklyn Nets Saturday. I'll take advantage and back this team, which has been a big money maker for me over the last month of the season.

Indeed, the 76ers are a very profitable 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, raking in solid profits for guys like myself who can stomach betting them. They have stayed within 10 points of Indiana (twice), Chicago (twice) and New York over the past three weeks. They just went into Boston and won 111-102 last night.

The Brooklyn Nets have been playing well, but they are kind of stuck in a bad spot right now. They would be the No. 5 seed in the East if the season were to end today, trailing the No. 4 seed by 2.5 games with only seven games to play. Their chances of getting home-court advantage in the first round are slim and they know it.

The first meeting between these teams this season was a blowout in Brooklyn's favor as Joe Johnson made 10 3-pointers, and Michael Carter-Williams sat out that game due to injury. However, the last two have gone right down to the wire. Philadelphia beat Brooklyn 121-120 as a 6-point home dog on December 20, and lost 102-108 as a 9-point road dog on February 3. I look for this 4th and final meeting to be decided by single-digits, too.

The Nets are just 14-23 SU & 17-20 ATS in all road games this season. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The 76ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Philadelphia is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Brooklyn. Bet the 76ers Saturday.

15* Thunder/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 212.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets tonight. Both teams are still worried about playoff seeding, so the defensive intensity should be high in this one, especially since it's being nationally televised on ESPN.

Believe it or not, these teams tend to play in defensive battles when they get together. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. Dating back further, the Thunder and Rockets have combined for 211 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings, which makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 212.5 points.

There are two key injuries in this one that will also help keep the final combined score UNDER the posted total. The most important is Russell Westbrook (21.3 ppg, 6.9 apg), who is sitting out to rest his knee following the second of a back-to-back. The other is Dwight Howard (18.5 ppg, 12.3 apg), who is doubtful with an ankle injury. Sure, Howard's defense will be missed, but Omer Asik (5.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg) is his replacement. Asik is nearly the same player defensively as Howard, but not even close to the same player offensively.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving two good excellent shooting teams (>=47%), in a game involving two average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) after 42+ games are 34-8 (81%) since 1996. Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Friday nights are 33-10 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.

Oklahoma City is 14-5 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The UNDER is 31-14 in Thunder's last 45 games off a home win by 10 points or more. The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last five vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Rockets last five vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings. These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2.5

Sure, the Utah Jazz have lost 16 of their last 18 games overall which would make most believe that they have quit. A closer look shows that they have simply played a gauntlet of a schedule and that they clearly have not quit.

Only three of those 16 losses have come against teams that aren't currently in the playoff hunt. The two wins came against Philadelphia and Orlando, which are teams not in the playoff hunt. One of the losses came to New Orleans on March 28 by a final of 95-102 on the road, which places the Jazz in revenge mode a week later.

New Orleans is depleted right now, which is why it stands no chance of covering in this game tonight. Its top four scorers in Anthony Davis (21.1 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 2.8 bpg), Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg), Eric Gordon (15.4 ppg) and Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) are all expected to miss tonight's game. Anderson and Holiday are for sure out, while Davis and Gordon are doubtful.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series between Utah and New Orleans. The home team is 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings. The Jazz are 4-0 straight up in their last four home meetings with the Pelicans. New Orleans is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 meetings in Utah. The Pelicans are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 road games. Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 185.5

The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls will take part in a defensive battle tonight. While this is a low total, the books have not set it nearly low enough. There is still a ton of value in backing the UNDER, especially when you look at recent meetings between these teams.

The UNDER is 3-0 in three meetings between the Bucks and Bulls this season. They have combined for 152, 181 and 153 points for an average combined score of 162 points, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 185.5. As you can see, there is a ton of value with this UNDER based off head-to-head history.

Milwaukee has been atrocious offensively in two of its last three games, scoring 67 and 77 points in losses to Miami. That's easy to understand when you consider how depleted the Bucks are right now. Both O.J. Mayo (11.7 ppg) and Ersan Ilyasova (11.2 ppg) recently went out with injuries. This team is led by Brandon Knight, Ramon Sessions and Khris Middleton offensively now, which is not good.

Chicago is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus terrible teams that are outscored by their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 29-13 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Chicago is 21-7 to the UNDER as a home favorite this year. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons clearly have not packed it in even though they are out of the playoff hunt. Their last two games have resulted in a win over Milwaukee and a 94-101 road loss at Indiana as a 10.5-point underdog. Those two effort show that they have not quit.

Brooklyn is in a tough spot here emotionally. It is currently the No. 5 seed in the East while trailing the Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls by 2.5 games for the No. 3 and No. 4 seed with only eight games remaining. Its chances of earning home-court advantage in the first round are slim, and it knows it. The Nets could be more worried about finding rest for their players here down the stretch.

Simply put, Detroit has Brooklyn's number as this is a terrible match-up for the Nets. Indeed, the Pistons are 3-0 against the Nets this season, winning by 12, 4 and 16 points. Their huge height advantage has been the biggest reason as the Pistons have outrebounded the Nets by a combined 38 boards in the three wins. Getting double-digit points here is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

Plays on road teams (DETROIT) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 89-33 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. Detroit is 9-0 ATS in April games over the past two seasons. Take the Pistons Friday.

25* NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Hawks UNDER 203

The stakes are high in this game between Cleveland and Atlanta, which is why I fully expect a defensive battle. Atlanta is percentage points behind New York for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, while Cleveland is two games behind New York for the same spot.

You can bet that both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively to try and get a win in this contest, which is the most important of the season for both squads. I also expect that pressure to affect the offenses as neither team will shoot it very well in this one.

Not counting overtime, the Hawks and Cavaliers have combined for 197 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five meetings in this series. That fact alone shows that there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in this one, especially given the pressure-packed circumstance for both teams.

Cleveland is 7-0 to the UNDER off a road win scoring 110 or more points this season. The UNDER is 6-0 in Hawks last six games following a loss. The UNDER is 5-0 in Hawks last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Hawks last 12 games following an ATS loss. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +1

The Indiana Pacers trail the Miami Heat by only percentage points for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Clearly, this team is lacking no motivation with only six games to play. I look for them to take care of business against the short-handed Toronto Raptors tonight.

Sure, Indiana has been playing its worst basketball of the season, losing five of its last seven games. However, it is coming off a confidence-building 101-94 win over Detroit. I believe these recent struggles have provided us with a ton of line value here tonight as I believe the Pacers should be in the neighborhood of a 5-point favorite.

Toronto is expected to be without its best player tonight in Kyle Lowry (17.4 ppg, 7.6 apg, 4.8 rpg), who is listed as doubtful with a knee injury. Also, starting forward Amir Johnson (10.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg) is questionable after leaving early Wednesday against Houston with an ankle injury. Chances are, since he didn't return, he won't be ready two days later.

Plays on road underdogs (INDIANA) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 53-24 (68.8%) ATS since 1996. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. The Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win. Roll with the Pacers Friday.

20* Spurs/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 209.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder (54-19) and San Antonio Spurs (59-16) square off tonight in a battle between the top two teams in the Western Conference. I look for this to be a low-scoring, defensive battle pertaining to tonight's total set of 209.5

This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between these teams. This is the highest total set of any of the four games as the previous three were 205, 207.5 and 202.5, respectively. That fact alone lets you know that there is some value on the UNDER here.

A big reason for the inflation is that these teams have combined for 216 and 213 points in their last two meetings. However, in that 216-point outing, the Thunder shot 54.2% as a team while the Spurs shot 53.3%. Neither team will come close to matching those blistering percentages in this one. Five of the past seven meetings in this series have seen 200 or fewer combined points, so the past two meetings were clearly the aberration.

Both teams still have plenty to play for, which is why the level of intensity defensively should be a very high level. The Thunder are trying to fend off the Clippers for the No. 2 seed in the West while inching closer to the Spurs, who want to clinch the No. 1 seed ASAP to give their starters some rest down the stretch.

The Spurs are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games following a SU win of more than 10 points, 7-0 to the UNDER in their last seven following an ATS win, and 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight games playing on 0 days of rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder's last four home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. These five trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Suns UNDER 214

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns. This will be the 4th and final meeting between these Pacific Division rivals, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the first three meetings between these teams. They did combine for 217 points last meeting, but the other two resulted in 200 and 195 combined points. That's an average of 204 combined points per game, which is 10 points less than tonight's posted total.

My biggest reason for backing the UNDER is that Los Angeles is expected to be without two of its top three scorers in Blake Griffin (24.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg) and Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg). Griffin is doubtful with a back injury, while Crawford is doubtful with an injured Achilles.

The Clippers are 16-4 to the UNDER versus poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game over the last two seasons. Phoenix is a perfect 9-0 to the UNDER in home games off two straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more since 1996. The Suns are 16-5 to the UNDER off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more since 1996.

The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Clippers last 16 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Suns last four overall. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in this series, including a perfect 6-0 in the last six meetings in Phoenix. Both teams have a lot to play for tonight, so look for the defensive intensity to be at a high level.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +8.5

The Philadelphia 76ers continue to show tremendous value due to having one of the worst records in the league. This team has made me a lot of money of late, and I'm going to continue to back them because they are undervalued once again as an 8.5-point home underdog to Charlotte.

Sure, the Bobcats are improved this season and will make the playoffs, but they should not be this heavily favored against anyone at home let alone on the road. They are pretty much guaranteed either a No. 6 or a No. 7 seed in the East, so they really don't have a whole lot to play for the rest of the way.

Philadelphia clearly has not quit. It has gone a very profitable 6-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. That includes a 90-99 at Indiana as a 9.5-point dog, a 94-102 home loss to Chicago as a 13.5-point dog, a 92-93 home loss to New York as a 12-point dog, an 81-91 loss at Chicago as a 16-point dog, and a 123-98 home win versus Detroit as a 6-point dog.

The only big blowouts and non-covers suffered by the 76ers during this stretch came at San Antonio and at Houston, which can be expected as those are two of the best teams in the Western Conference. Many thought they would fold after ending their 26-game losing streak, but that wasn't the case last time out. They fought tough at Atlanta for four quarters before eventually losing 95-103 as a 12-point dog.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last nine meetings with Charlotte. It won its last home meeting with the Bobcats 95-92 on January 15 as a 2-point favorite. Now, it is an 8.5-point underdog, which just goes to show you how much value there is in this line.

Charlotte is 2-12 ATS revenging a close loss vs. opponent of 3 points or less over the last three seasons. The Bobcats are 35-59 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons. The Bobcats are 3-12 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games over the last two years. Philadelphia is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Warriors/Mavericks UNDER 205

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks tonight. One look at the scores in the first three meetings between these teams this season and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

Indeed, the Warriors and Mavs have met three times with final combined scores of 193, 188 and 202 points. That's an average of 194.3 points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total. If you don't count overtime, then the Mavs and Warriors have combined for 202 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings as well.

Golden State just isn't the same offensive team without second-leading scorer David Lee (18.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg), who has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury. It has made a big impact on the Warriors, who have scored an average of 91.3 points per game in their last three games overall. They literally have no inside scoring presence without Lee, who is listed as doubtful tonight.

The UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in Warriors last eight Tuesday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Mavericks last five vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have been undervalued for quite some time now as we approach the end of the season. Many feel that this team has given up, but from following them closely, that is clearly not the case. They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall while being much more competitive against some quality competition in the Pacers, Bulls (twice), Knicks, Spurs, Rockets and Pistons.

Sure, the 76ers lack talent due to a couple of trades, but they just recently got back a key player in Tony Wroten (13.3 ppg) from injury. To no surprise, the 76ers put an end to their 26-game losing streak in his first game back, beating Detroit 123-98 on Saturday night. This team will play out the season and relish the role of spoiler as all of these players are fighting for jobs next year.

With the way Atlanta has been playing for a couple months, it has no business being this heavily favored against anyone. Atlanta (31-41) has gone 6-20 since February 4, and it is in the midst of its second losing streak of six games or more during this stretch. Kyle Korver leads the league in 3-point shooting at 48.6 percent, but has missed the past six games with a back injury, and he's questionable to return tonight.

The 76ers have a huge edge in rest here as this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days, while the Hawks will be playing their 6th game in 9 days. Philadelphia is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Atlanta is 5-20-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Roll with the 76ers Monday.

20* Spurs/Pacers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana +4.5

The Indiana Pacers should not be a home underdog to anyone. I'll take advantage Monday and back them at arguably their best price of the season as a 4.5-point home dog to the San Antonio Spurs.

The Pacers are undervalued right now due to having lost four of their last five games overall. Their one win during this stretch came against Miami, so they have proven they can step it up when they need to. They only lead the Heat by one game for the No. 1 seed in the East, so this is a very important game for them.

All four of Indiana's losses during this five-game stretch have come on the road. It returns home tonight where it is a sensational 33-4 on the season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 12.5 points per game. That's why this team knows how important it will be to secure home-court advantage in the East.

San Antonio comes in overvalued due to its franchise-best 17-game winning streak. The competition has been weak to say the least, which is the biggest reason for this streak. Their last four games have come against the 76ers, Nuggets (twice) and Pelicans. I'm predicting their run comes to an end tonight, but I'll gladly take the points for some added insurance.

Plays against any team (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 42-11 (79.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games following a double-digit loss. Take the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +4.5

The Orlando Magic obviously have had a rough season. However, they have been sneaky good at home, going 17-18 straight up in all home games this season. I believe they should be the favorite in this game against Toronto tonight.

Orlando has not quit on its season. It is coming off back-to-back home wins over playoff contenders in Portland (95-85) and Charlotte (110-105). It is certainly doing a good job of playing the role of spoiler, and I look for that to continue tonight.

Toronto has been underrated for much of the season as it is 41-31 on the year and sitting in third place in the Eastern Conference. However, I believe the odds have finally caught up to the Raptors, and now it's time to fade this overvalued bunch.

One reason the Magic will be motivated for this game is the fact that they are 0-2 against the Raptors this season and want to avoid the sweep. In fact, they have lost six straight in this series overall. They'll be looking to put an end to this skid tonight.

Orlando is a sensational 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season. Toronto is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games off a close home win by 3 points or less. The Magic are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games overall. Roll with the Magic Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Cavaliers UNDER 184

The Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers will take part in a defensive battle today. If recent meetings between these teams is any indication, there's no question that the books have set the bar too high in this one.

The Pacers and Cavaliers have met three times already this season, so they are very familiar with one another. They have combined for 160, 167 and 163 points in their last three meetings, respectively. That's an average of 163.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 21 points less than tonight's posted total of 184.

Indiana ranks 20th in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 19th at 95.5 possessions per game. The Pacers lead the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.5 points per 100 possessions. Their job will be much easier tonight considering Cleveland is without leading scorer Kyrie Irving (21.2 ppg).

Indiana is 30-13 to the UNDER versus poor foul drawing teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season. The Pacers are 22-5 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Indiana is 15-3 to the UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or less in four straight games since 1996. The UNDER is 7-0 in Pacers last seven games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Cavaliers last six vs. NBA Central Division foes. The UNDER is 56-21-2 in Cavaliers last 79 Sunday game. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pelicans/Spurs UNDER 202.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between these Southwest Divisions rivals who are very familiar with one another.

The last two meetings between these teams have seen 197 and 196 combined points, respectively. Five of the last seven meetings have seen 197 or fewer combined points as well. It's clear that when these division foes get together, defense wins out.

I look for that to be the case even more tonight, especially for the Spurs considering the Pelicans are likely without all five starters. Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg) and Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg) are out, while Anthony Davis (21.3 ppg), Eric Gordon (15.4 ppg) and Brian Robers (9.5 ppg) are all listed as doubtful.

Points will certainly be hard to come by for the Pelicans as they'll be lost offensively. The Spurs could easily elect to rest their starters in this spot considering they are playing the second of a back-to-back and Greg Popovich has been known to give his guys a night off in these spots.

San Antonio is 20-7 to the UNDER in its last 27 home games after scoring 120 points or more in its previous game. The UNDER is 6-1 in Spurs' last seven games when playing the second of a back-to-back. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Clippers/Rockets Western Conference No-Brainer on UNDER 217

There is a lot at stake in this game between the Clippers and Rockets tonight. Los Angeles leads Houston by just one game for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. As a result, I expect both teams to put their best foot forward defensively tonight.

Looking at the last two meetings between these teams this season, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The Clippers won 107-94 on the road on November 9 for 201 combined points. They also won 101-93 at home on February 22 for 194 combined points.

Most wouldn't realize it, but both Los Angeles and Houston rank inside the top 10 in the league in defensive efficiency. The Clippers rank 6th at 101.6 points allowed per 100 possessions, while the Rockets are 10th at 102.2 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), on Saturday games are 26-6 (81.2%) since 1996.

Houston is 8-1 to the UNDER In home games versus good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots this season. The Rockets are 13-2 to the UNDER versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Clippers last 12 games following a win. The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Clippers last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Clippers last seven games playing on 1 days' rest. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Nuggets UNDER 215.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games, and these teams just played two nights ago in a 108-103 San Antonio home victory for 211 combined points.

Recent meetings between these teams have been very low scoring when compared to tonight's posted total of 215.5. Indeed, the Spurs and Nuggets have combined for 211, 196, 182 and 199 points in their last four meetings, respectively. That's an average of 197 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total. The UNDER is 35-15-1 in the last 51 meetings as well.

Denver has all kinds of injury issues right now that make points hard to come by. It is without Nate Robinson, J.J. Hickson, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee. San Antonio is without Danny Green and Matt Bonner. These injuries are a big reason why I believe this recent UNDER trend between these teams continues tonight.

The Nuggets are 8-1 to the UNDER vs. excellent 3-point shooting teams that make 39% or more of their attempts this season. The UNDER is 6-0 in Spurs last six Friday games. San Antonio is 5-0 to the UNDER in its last five when its opponent scores 100 points or more in its previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last four games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series. These last four trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are making one final run at trying to make the playoffs despite playing without Kyrie Irving. The loss of Irving has really made them come together as a team, and don't forget, backup point guard Jarrett Jack could start on a lot of teams.

Cleveland has won three straight over New York, Toronto and Detroit to pull within three games of the Atlanta Hawks for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. It hasn't lost any of its last six games by more than 7 points, which includes narrow losses to Miami (96-100), OKC (95-102) and Houston (111-118) to prove that it can play with anyone.

The Nets are overvalued right now due to some solid play over the past month-plus. They have no business being this heavily favored tonight. They are also coming off back-to-back losses to New Orleans and Charlotte. The Nets are going to make the playoffs, but they have little chance of earning home-court advantage in the first round. They are kind of stuck in la-la land because of it.

Cleveland is 12-1 ATS after playing four consecutive games as an underdog this season. Brooklyn is 0-7 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points this season. The Nets are 4-17 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* Bobcats/Magic Southeast Division DAGGER on Orlando +4.5

The Orlando Magic get the call as a home underdog to the Charlotte Bobcats tonight. The Bobcats have no business being a favorite here, and the only reason they are is due to being in the playoff race.

However, the Bobcats will likely be a No. 7 or No. 8 seed no matter what, so they really do not have all that much to play for at this point. They are overvalued right now due to being the playoffs and also due to a recent stretch of solid play prior to coming back down to reality and dropping three of their last five.

Orlando has not quit, and it will not give in to a Southeast Division rival like Charlotte tonight. The Magic are coming off a 95-85 home victory over Portland on Tuesday to show that they have not quit. Now, they have had two days' rest prior to this game, so they will be ready to go tonight.

Charlotte is 2-14 ATS after two straight games being called for 5-plus less fouls than its opponent over the last three seasons. Orlando is 8-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season. The Magic are a respectable 16-18 SU at home, while the Bobcats are 14-21 SU on the road. The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Orlando is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games overall. Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Washington Wizards +2

The Washington Wizards get the nod as a home underdog to the Indiana Pacers tonight. Washington will be hungry for a win after losing two straight and four of its last five games coming in. It is currently a No. 6 seed and wants to not fall to No. 7 to avoid either Miami or Indiana in the playoffs.

The Pacers are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They are coming off a huge 84-83 home win over Miami on Wednesday to pull three games ahead of the Heat for the No. 1 seed in the East. Off such a big win, it's only human nature for them to have a letdown tonight since they still have plenty of room to spare to earn that No. 1 seed even if they lose this one.

Washington has been thoroughly embarrassed by Indiana in two meetings this season, which will add to its motivation. It has lost both road meetings by finals of 73-93 and 66-93. The Pacers will have a hard time showing up because of it as well, thinking they'll just have to go through the motions to beat this team. Look for the Wizards to fight back tonight.

Despite having one of the best records in the league, the Pacers are just a mediocre 19-16 on the road this season. Indiana is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 road games. The Pacers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Indiana is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Wizards are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the Wizards Friday.

25* NBA Atlantic Division TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Celtics/Raptors UNDER 194.5

I backed the UNDER between the Celtics and Raptors when they met up just two nights ago in a 99-90 Toronto road victory for 189 combined points. I'm going to back the UNDER again as familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

A big reason I was on the UNDER two nights ago is because of familiarity considering both the Celtics and Raptors are Atlantic Division Rivals. This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between these teams, and the first three have been very low-scoring.

Indeed, the Raptors and Celtics have combined for 180, 171 and 189 points in their first three meetings. That's an average of 180 combined points per game, which is 14.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5. As you can see, there is a ton of value with the UNDER Here.

Boston is 10-1 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (win percentage between 51% and 60%) this season. The Celtics are 16-5 to the UNDER off a home loss this season. The UNDER is 8-2 in Raptors last 10 Friday games. The UNDER is 20-8 in Celtics last 28 games following an ATS loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +20

The Philadelphia 76ers are highly motivated to put an end to their franchise-high 25-game winning streak. This team is embarrassed, and they are tired of getting on Sportscenter for all the wrong reasons.

The 76ers have responded well recently, playing much more competitive basketball while earning backers a nice return on their investment in the process. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which four losses by 10 points or less to Indiana, New York and Chicago (twice).

Houston isn't the type of mentally tough team that will lay it all on the line tonight to cover this massive 20-point spread. Plus, it could be looking ahead to a huge showdown on Saturday with the Los Angeles Clippers, who lead the Rockets by a narrow margin for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Philadelphia is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games off two consecutive road games this season. It is actually winning 106.1 to 102.4 in this spot, or by an average of 3.7 points per game. This team has just been more comfortable the longer it is on the road. Houston is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 games as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Philly is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 meetings with Houston. Bet the 76ers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +7

The New Orleans Pelicans have proven that they are going to play out their season despite the fact that they have been eliminated from the playoffs. These are the teams that you can back late in the year and catch some really good lines because they are inflated as the betting public assumes they are going to quit.

All the Pelicans have done over the last three weeks is go 7-3 straight up in their last 10 games overall. That includes three straight wins over playoff contenders in Atlanta (111-105) on the road, and Miami (105-95) and Brooklyn (109-104) at home. Their only three losses during this stretch all came by 8 points or fewer against playoff contenders in Portland, Memphis and Toronto.

Los Angeles comes in overvalued due to having won 13 of its last 14 games overall. It s last five games have all come against non-playoff contenders in Utah, Cleveland, Denver, Detroit and Milwaukee. It has won by single-digits in three of those four games, and it has also lost at Denver (100-110) for its lone defeat.

The Clippers could easily get complacent, and it looks like they have already started to. Another reason why they not be fully engaged in this game is the fact that they are 3-0 in their first three meetings of the season with the Pelicans. That places New Orleans in revenge mode as it desperately wants to avoid the season sweep.

Los Angeles is just 19-16 on the road this season, while New Orleans is 18-17 at home. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1996. New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with Los Angeles. Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* Heat/Pacers ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Indiana -2

This is a statement game for the Indiana Pacers (51-20), who lead the Miami Heat (48-21) by just 1.5 games for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. They realize their best chance of beating the Heat in the playoffs is with home-court advantage, and a win tonight would certainly inch them closer to getting it.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge when these teams have gotten together in recent years. The home team has won six straight and 10 of the last 12 in this series. The home team has won both meetings this season, and I look for this trend to continue tonight.

Miami has not been playing well over the past month. It has gone just 5-7 straight up in its last 12 games overall and all five of its wins came by single-digits, so it really hasn't been blowing anybody out. The Heat are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as well.

The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games. Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a S.U. win. Combine these two trends with the fact that the home team is 6-0 in the last six meetings, and we have a perfect 17-0 system backing Indiana tonight. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Celtics UNDER 195

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics. These Atlantic Division rivals are very familiar with one another, and familiarity leads to low-scoring games.

Indeed, both meetings between the Raptors and Celtics have been extremely low-scoring this season. Toronto won 93-87 at home on October 30 for 180 combined points, while Boston won 88-83 at home on January 15 for 171 combined points. As you can see, both of those games finished well below tonight's posted total of 195, creating a ton of line value.

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace. Toronto ranks 22nd in pace at 94.6 possessions per game, while Boston is 17th in pace at 95.8 possessions per contest. Surprising to many is the fact that Toronto ranks 8th in the league in defensive efficiency this season, yielding 101.6 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics are right in the middle of the pack at 16th (104.2).

Boston is 9-1 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) this season. The Celtics are 20-9 to the UNDER off one or more consecutive overs this season. The UNDER is 35-17 in Celtics last 52 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Toronto is 29-11 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Mavs TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 211.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Dallas Mavericks for the second time in 10 days tonight. Familiarity leads to low-scoring games more times than not, and I look for the final combined score of this contest to stay well below the posted total of 211.5.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent years. In two meetings this season, they have combined for 195 and 200 points. If you don't count overtime, Dallas and Oklahoma City have combined for 210 or fewer points in each of their last 15 meetings. That makes for a perfect 15-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.

Both teams have participated in overtime games and high-scoring affairs recently, which has inflated this number. Dallas has gone to overtime in two of its last three games, while Oklahoma City went to double-overtime against Toronto a few nights back. Provided this one avoids overtime, I have no doubt it will stay below the total. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Cavaliers UNDER 195.5

The books have set the bar too high in this Eastern Conference showdown between the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers. I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I anticipate to be a very low-scoring contest.

Scoring has been slow in recent meetings between these teams. They have combined for 197 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings, including 189 and 192 in their two meetings in 2013-14. The UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings and 8-1 in the last nine meetings.

Cleveland is without leading scorer and assist man Kyrie Irving (21.2 ppg, 6.2 apg) until early April. This team has done a decent job of scoring without him so far, but that's how it works. Usually, a team can make up for a superstar for a few games, but over time they really start to miss that star. I believe that will be the case starting tonight against defensive-minded Toronto.

Both of these teams like to play at slow paces in the half court. Toronto ranks 22nd in the league in pace at 94.6 possessions per game, while Cleveland is 19th at 95.6 possessions per game. The Raptors rank an impressive 6th in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 101.4 points per 100 possessions.

Cleveland is 8-0 to the UNDER off a game with five or less offensive rebounds over the last three seasons. The Cavaliers are 10-1 to the UNDER off a road win this year. The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Raptors last 27 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The UNDER is 8-1 in Cavaliers last nine after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -1

The Utah Jazz showing tremendous value as basically a pick 'em against the Detroit Pistons tonight. Salt Lake City remains a tough place to play despite the season the Jazz are having, and I look for them to take care of business at home tonight.

It's clear to me that Detroit has given up on its season, which is the biggest reason I am going to fade it tonight. It has lost five straight games to essentially fall out of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Pistons have lost 15 of their last 18 games overall. I cannot see them picking themselves up off the mat tonight.

While the Jazz have been struggling as well, the main culprit has been a brutal schedule that featured six straight losses to teams that would be in the playoff if the season ended today. In their first game against a non-playoff contender, the Jazz got back on track with a victory over the Orlando Magic on Saturday to prove they have not quit. This will only be their 2nd game in 5 days, so they are well-rested and ready to go.

Utah is 15-1 SU in its last 16 meetings with Detroit as this has clearly been a one-sided series. The Jazz are also 14-2 SU in their last 16 home meetings with the Pistons. Enough said. Bet the Jazz Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +21

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a huge money maker for me of lately. I'm going to continue to ride them as I feel once again they are undervalued as a massive underdog tonight to the San Antonio Spurs.

The reason the 76ers have been catching so many points of late is because they are in the midst of a 24-game losing streak. However, there's no question this team is tired of the embarrassment of being on Sportscenter for all the wrong reasons, and they have been playing inspired basketball to try and put an end to the streak as a result.

Indeed, Philadelphia has been much more competitive of late. Seven of its last nine losses have come by 13 points or less, including home losses to Indiana (94-101), New York (92-93) and Chicago (94-102), and road losses to Indiana (90-99) and Chicago (81-91). As you can see, this team has been competitive with some of the best teams in the league, and I look for that to be the case again tonight.

Like the 76ers are undervalued due to their losing streak, the Spurs are way overvalued due to their winning streak. They have won 13 straight games heading into this one. This is a massive letdown spot for the Spurs, who will not be motivated at all to face the 76ers. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me one bit of Greg Popovich takes this opportunity to get his starters some rest, which would only help our cause.

Plays on road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Roll with the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans +2

The New Orleans Pelicans get the nod as a small home underdog to the Brooklyn Nets tonight. They should not be a dog in this contest given the rest situation and how well this team has been playing of late.

Indeed, the Pelicans come in on one days' rest having last played on Saturday, while the Nets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. The Nets also went to overtime Sunday against Dallas, which makes this task that much more difficult. Also, they are already short-handed playing without Kevin Garnett, while Andrei Kirilenko is questionable with an ankle injury suffered yesterday.

The Pelicans have been a thorn in the side of a lot of teams of late despite the fact that they will not be going to the playoffs. They have gone 6-3 in their last nine games overall with their only three losses coming to playoff contenders in Memphis, Portland and Toronto all by 8 points or less. They have won back-to-back games at Atlanta (111-105) and versus defending champion Miami (105-95).

The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. Take the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Bulls UNDER 180

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls tonight. These teams just played on Friday with Indiana winning 91-79 at home for 170 combined points. I look for a similar result in this one.

Familiarity breeds low-scoring games, and having played just a couple nights ago, the edge goes to the defenses of both teams. The books set the total at 179.5 for that contest, which is basically the same for this one. Their failure to adjust provides us with some value on the UNDER tonight.

These are the two best teams in the league defensively. Indeed, the Pacers rank 1st in defensive efficiency at 95.4 points per 100 possessions, while the Bulls are 2nd at 97.9 points per 100 possessions. Also, Indiana ranks 20th in the league in pace at 95.5 possessions per game, while Chicago ranks 28th at 92.9 possessions per game. As you can see, both teams like to play in the half court, which benefits the under with the way they play D.

The UNDER is 25-10-1 in Pacers last 36 games when playing on one days' rest. The Bulls are 20-8 to the UNDER in their last 28 home games. The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in this series, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Chicago. Indiana is 17-5 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Milwaukee Bucks +8

The Milwaukee Bucks represent my strongest release in an East vs. West battle for the entire month of March Sunday. The Sacramento Kings have no business being this heavily favored over anyone; not even the Bucks.

Sure, Milwaukee (13-56) owns the worst record in basketball, but it is undervalued as a result. Oddsmakers are forced to inflate its lines because of that fact. Now, the Bucks have been an absolute covering machine because time and time again they are catching too many points.

Indeed, the Bucks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall. They have lost their last two games on the road to Western Conference playoff contenders in Portland (115-120) as a 12.5-point dog, and Golden State (110-115) as a 13-point dog.

Milwaukee clearly has not quit on its season by the way it keeps covering spreads at an alarming rate. Sure, it isn't winning a lot of games, but it has been competitive in almost every game for a while now. In fact, it has only lost seven of its last 23 games by double-digits. It comes in well-rested an ready to go having last played on Thursday, March 20.

This is a revenge game for the Bucks, who just lost at home to Sacramento by a final of 102-116 on March 5. This contest takes place less than three weeks later, so you can bet that the Bucks will be the more motivated team. The Kings won't have any interest at all, and they could easily suffer a hangover from their loss to the Western Conference-leading Spurs on Friday.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 road covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1996.

Milwaukee is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams that score 99-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season. The Bucks are 9-1 ATS after scoring 100-plus points in two straight games this season. Milwaukee is 72-42 ATS in its last 114 games off four or more consecutive losses. The Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Kings are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the Bucks Sunday.

20* Spurs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 208.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors. These teams are very familiar with one another after meeting in the playoffs last year, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games as it favors defense.

Looking back at the past several meeting between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The Spurs and Warriors have combined by 206 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings. Not counting overtime, they have combined to average 183.6 points per game in their last seven meetings, which is roughly 25 points less than tonight's posted total.

Believe it or not, these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. Golden State ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency, allowing just 99.5 points per 100 possessions. San Antonio ranks 4th, yielding 100.2 points per 100 possessions. They trail only Indiana (95.4) and Chicago (97.9) in this department.

Golden State is 13-1 to the UNDER revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season. The Warriors are 12-3to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more this season. Golden State is 20-6 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more this year. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +16.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are clearly a prideful team. They have been trying desperately to put an end to their 23-game losing streak, and they have been covering spreads at an alarming rate as a result. This team wants to put an end to this skid because they know how embarrassing it is to be on Sportscenter every night for the wrong reason.

As a result, the 76ers clearly have not packed it in even though they have had every reason to. They have gone an impressive 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with losses at New York (110-123) as a 15.5-point dog, at Indiana (90-99) as a 19.5-point dog, versus Indiana (94-101) as a 16-point dog, versus Chicago (94-102) as a 13.5-point dog, and versus New York (92-93) as a 12-point dog.

That game against Chicago occurred just a few days ago on Wednesday, March 19. So, that will add to the motivation for the 76ers as they'll want revenge just three days later. Meanwhile, Chicago could suffer a hangover from its 79-91 loss at Eastern Conference-leading Indiana last night. This isn't a team built to blow teams out, either, which work in our favor here.

Chicago is 1-8 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 46% or worse this season. It is actually losing 90.4 to 97.7 in this spot, or by 7.3 points per game. The Bulls are 22-38 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons. Philadelphia is 66-42 ATS in its last 108 games as a double-digit underdog. The 76ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Bulls are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the 76ers Saturday.

15* Spurs/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +8

The Sacramento Kings are showing tremendous value as an 8-point home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs tonight. I look for this game to go right down to the wire with the home team having a chance to win outright in the closing seconds.

Despite their overall struggles, the Kings still tend to play very well at home. In fact, they are outscoring opponents on the season in all home games, so it clearly has been an advantage playing inside of Sleep Train Arena. They'll give the Spurs all they want and more tonight.

In fact, Sacramento has played San Antonio very tough in recent meetings. The Spurs have won by 8 points or fewer in three straight meetings with the Kings, but all three of those contests took place in San Antonio. The Kings lost 93-95 and 104-112 in the first two meetings this season with both being on the road.

I have no doubt that San Antonio comes into this game way overvalued due to its current 11-game winning streak. It has also covered five straight. This has become a very public team as a result, which has forced oddsmakers to inflate the line tonight to a number where the only play is on the home dog.

Sacramento is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 games as a home underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Sacramento is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Kings have covered in four of their last five meetings with the Spurs. Roll with the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +12

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing tremendous value as a double-digit home underdog to the New York Knicks tonight. I'll take advantage and back them in a game that will likely be decided by single-digits either way between these Atlantic Division rivals.

Believe it or not, the 76ers have not quit on their season despite losing 22 straight games coming into this one. This streak has only inflated their lines to the point where you have to back them because there's so much value in doing so. As a result, they have come through for bettors of late while being highly competitive.

Indeed, the 76ers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. That includes a 110-123 loss at New York as a 15.5-point underdog, a 94-101 home loss to Indiana as a 16-point dog, a 90-99 road loss to Indiana as a 19-point dog, and a 94-102 home loss to Chicago as an 8-point dog. Those efforts right there against some of the top teams in the league show that they have not quit.

While the 76ers are undervalued due to their losing streak, the Knicks are way overvalued due to their winning streak. They have won seven straight games coming into this contest, including a 92-86 home victory over Indiana last time out. However, that was their only win against a team that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, and thus they have been beating up on weak competition this entire time.

Asking the Knicks to win by 13-plus points to beat us is simply asking too much. This is a division rivalry, so the 76ers are not going to just lay down. Also, these teams just played on March 10 with New York winning by 13 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. So, the 76ers will want revenge less than two weeks later. Not to mention, four of the past five meetings have been decided by 10 points or less with that 13-point home victory for the Knicks being the lone exception.

Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS since 1996. New York is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 road games after having won six or seven of its last eight games. Bet the 76ers Friday.

20* Bucks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Milwaukee +14

Because the Milwaukee Bucks have the worst record in the league, they have been extremely undervalued over the past couple months. The betting public wants nothing to do with this team, so oddsmakers have been forced to inflate their spreads, and thus they have been getting the cash at an alarming rate.

Indeed, the Bucks are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Amazingly, Milwaukee has only been beaten by more than 14 points two times in its last 24 games overall. That makes for a dynamite 22-2 system backing the Bucks pertaining to tonight's 14-point spread.

The Warriors are clearly overvalued in this contest. They could be without two starters in Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut. Iguodala is for sure out, while Bogut missed last game and is doubtful with an ankle injury. It is also safe to assume that Golden State will be looking ahead to a huge showdown against the Western Conference-leading Spurs on Saturday night.

Milwaukee has won three of its last four trips to Golden State OUTRIGHT. It has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in the process with its only loss coming by 6 points. The Bucks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Warriors overall. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

The Bucks are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games when playing 9 or more games in 14 days. Milwaukee is 71-42 ATS in its last 113 games following four or more consecutive losses. The Warriors are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Golden State is 9-19-1 ATS in its last 29 games following an ATS win. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Bucks Thursday.

20* Spurs/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 223

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers. These teams played just five days ago on March 14, and familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

Plus, both meetings between the Spurs and Lakers this season have been very low-scoring when compared to tonight's total set of 223. They combined for 176 points in a 91-85 San Antonio road victory on November 1, and 204 points in a 119-85 home victory for the Spurs on March 14.

San Antonio is going to play defense night in and night out. It is only allowing 97.8 points per game this season, and it has held the Lakers to an average of 85 points per game in two meetings this year. I look for them to limit LA to fewer than 100 points once again in this one, which will pave the way for the UNDER to come through.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 32-9 (78%) over the last five seasons.

The UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 9-2 in Lakers last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 7-2 in Spurs last nine vs. a team with a losing record. The Lakers are 30-16 to the UNDER vs. explosive offensive teams that score 103-plus points per game over the last three seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 199

I have no doubt that the books have set the number too high in this contest between rivals Miami and Boston tonight. Sure, these teams aren't the rivals they were when Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett were still around, but Rajon Rondo remains a Celtic and is the leader of this team, so he will have his teammates up for this one.

I look for the defensive intensity to remain at a high level, which has been a constant when these teams have gotten together in the past. In their most recent meeting on January 21, the Heat beat the Celtics 93-86 at home for 179 combined points. I look for a similar output tonight.

Boston has really struggled to put the ball into the basket over the past couple months. It has scored fewer than 100 points in 19 of its last 24 games overall. I think that it's a safe bet that it will be held to under the century mark in this one as well.

One of the biggest reasons this number has been inflated it because Miami has gone 3-0 to the OVER in its last three games overall. However, two of those were against Denver and Houston, which are two of the best offensive teams in the league, and the Nuggets don't play any defense. They combined for 196 points with the Cavaliers last night, and will come back tired playing the second of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.

Miami is a perfect 9-0 to the UNDER in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons. It is combining with its opponents for an average of 188.4 points per game in this spot. The UNDER is 6-1 in Miami's last seven vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 13-6 in Celtics last 19 home games. Boston is 20-9 to the UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Cavaliers UNDER 196

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers. I recommend a play on the UNDER in what will be a low-scoring, defensive battle. Both of these teams have a lot to play for tonight.

Miami is trying to catch Indiana for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, while Cleveland is fighting to stay alive for the playoffs. That's why both teams should bring max intensity to the defensive end of the floor tonight.

However, my biggest reason for liking the UNDER is Cleveland's lack of offense without Kyrie Irving (21.2 ppg, 6.2 apg), who is expected to miss the next two weeks with a bicep injury. This team is going to be lost offensively without Irving, and they will look to play at more of a slow-it-down pace without him, too.

Recent meetings between these teams in Cleveland have been very low-scoring. Indeed, the UNDER is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings in Cleveland. Each of the last three meetings in Cleveland have seen 193 or fewer combined points.

Miami is 7-0 to the UNDER In road games after a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games this season. The UNDER is 6-0 in Cavaliers last six games playing on one days' rest. The UNDER is 14-3 in Cleveland's last 17 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The UNDER is 8-2 in Heat last 10 games vs. Eastern Conference foes. The UNDER is 13-4 in Cavaliers' last 17 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Bulls ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder get the call Monday as a small road favorite over the Chicago Bulls. This is a very generous price for the Thunder, who are rarely this short of a favorite. They trail the Spurs by two games for the No. 1 seed in the West, so they have everything to play for.

I look for the Thunder to play with a chip on their shoulder after an embarrassing 86-109 home loss to the Dallas Mavericks Sunday. They were playing without Russell Westbrook (21.6 ppg, 7.1 apg, 5.7 rpg) yesterday as he rested his knee, but he is expected to return tonight, which will make all of the difference in the world for this team.

I am one of the biggest believers in the Bulls that there is. I love Tom Thibodeau and think he deserves Coach of the Year every year with what he has done with this team through injuries and trades. However, the odds are finally starting to catch up with them, and they are now overvalued as only a 2.5-point dog to a much superior team in the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Chicago with three of those victories coming by double-digits. It has won by 12, 30, 6 and 14 points in the last four meetings, respectively. The Bulls have had no answer for Durant and Westbrook, and now with defensive stopper Luol Deng gone, they certainly won't tonight, either.

The Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Oklahoma City is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a double-digit home loss. The Thunder are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five Monday games, and 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win. OKC is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 meetings in Chicago. Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* Cavs/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +11

The Cleveland Cavaliers (26-40) are fighting for their playoff lives. They trail the Atlanta Hawks by four games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Basically, every game for them from here on out is a must-win as they cannot afford to fall any further behind.

The Cavaliers are handling the pressure of these must-win games incredibly of late. They have won back-to-back road games against Western Conference playoff contenders in Phoenix (110-101) as an 8-point underdog, and Golden State (103-94) as an 9.5-point dog. Now, they get another playoff contenders in the Clippers.

I believe Los Angeles is way overvalued tonight due to its 10-game winning streak coming in. It has really shown signs of being overvalued of late, too, going 1-2-1 ATS in its last four games overall. Three of those wins came by single-digits, including a 109-108 home victory over Atlanta as a 15-point underdog.

One key factor for the Clippers' struggles is that they have been playing without second-leading scorer Jamal Crawford (18.7 ppg), who is doubtful to play again tonight due to a calf injury. Also, both Chris Paul (ankle) and Blake Griffin (back) are banged up and listed on the injury report, though both are expected to play tonight.

Cleveland has been a thorn in Los Angeles' side over the past two seasons. Indeed, the Cavaliers have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Clippers in their last four meetings. What makes that so impressive is that they have been an underdog of 6-plus points in every game. Dating back further, Cleveland is 12-2 SU in its last 14 meetings with the Clippers.

The Cavaliers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. The Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Los Angeles. Roll with the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +15

The Utah Jazz get the call Sunday as a massive 15-point underdog to the San Antonio Spurs. They are showing some of their best value of the season tonight because they have not quit on their season and will continue to play out the string, just like they have been.

Sure, the Jazz have lost three in a row coming in, but all three have been to playoff contenders and all went down to the wire. They lost to Atlanta (110-112), Dallas (101-108) and the LA Clippers (87-96) and had chances to win all three of those games late. I believe they'll be in it for four quarters against the Spurs, too.

San Antonio comes in way overvalued due to its current 9-game winning streak. It has also covered three straight games, and the betting public has been all over this team. That's why the oddsmakers have been forced to set this line much higher than it should be knowing that the betting public would pounce on the Spurs if they set it where it actually should be. They need even action on both sides, which is why they inflate lines like this.

Utah will be motivated for a win tonight due to going 0-3 in its first three meetings with San Antonio this season. Two of those were decided by single-digits, including a 105-109 road loss at San Antonio as a 14-point dog in their most recent meeting on January 15. I look for a similar result here as the Jazz lay it all on the line to try and avoid the season sweep.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Utah is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. San Antonio is 2-11 ATS after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. Take the Jazz Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavericks/Thunder UNDER 215.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday. Both teams have a lot to play for in this one as the Thunder are trying to earn the No. 1 seed in the West, while the Mavericks are trying to fend off all comers just for a spot in the playoffs. The level of defensive intensity will be at an all-time high in this one.

Another reason the UNDER is the play is because both teams come in well-rested, and thus they'll be well-prepared defensively to stop their opponents' offensive strengths. Dallas has had three days off since playing last on Wednesday, while Oklahoma City has had two days off since playing on Thursday.

Looking at the last three meetings in this series, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Dallas and Oklahoma City have combined for 200, 208 and 203 points in their last three meetings, respectively. If you don't count overtime, then the Mavs and Thunder have combined for 210 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last 14 meetings.

Since you can't count on overtime, that makes for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER in this contest pertaining to tonight's total set of 215.5 points. This is free money tonight ladies and gents. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Rockets/Heat ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 209

The Houston Rockets and Miami Heat will each be laying it all on the line defensively. Houston has lost two in a row coming in, while Miami has lost two straight and four of five. You can bet that both teams will be pissed off heading into this one, which will show a lot more on defense than it will on offense.

Another reason to love the UNDER in this contest is that these teams just played each other. Houston beat Miami 106-103 at home on March 4, and now they meet for a second and final time this season less than two weeks later. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games as both teams will now be more equipped defensively to stop the opposing offensive strengths.

Miami is 5-1 to the UNDER in its last six games overall. It has really been struggling offensively, averaging just 95.2 points per game in its last five games overall. Houston has hit the breaks offensively in its last two games, scoring 98 points at Oklahoma City and 87 at Chicago in its back-to-back losses.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 66-29 (69.5%) since 1996. The UNDER is 13-4 in Rockets last 17 when playing on two days' rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Heat last eight games following a S.U. loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5

The Indiana Pacers (48-17) have not been playing very good basketball since the All-Star Break. They have lost four of their last six games overall, and they are a woeful 0-9 ATS in their last nine games. They have clearly been overvalued for quite some time after their fast start to the season.

Now, I believe this team is actually undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in nine straight. It's time to hop back on the wagon tonight as they are just a 5-point road favorite over the hapless Detroit Pistons (25-40). I look for them to come out and dominate from start to finish in this one folks.

Detroit has been alive for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference all year long despite its struggles. Even with that to play for, this team just doesn't show up on a nightly basis. The Pistons have gone 3-11 in their last 14 games overall with their only wins coming against Sacramento, New York and Atlanta.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least. Indiana is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Detroit. All six of those victories came by 6-plus points, including blowouts of 18, 32, 19 and 11 points. The Pacers did lose to the Pistons back in December, so they certainly won't be taking this team lightly.

Detroit is 10-21 ATS in home games versus teams with winning records over the last two seasons. Indiana is 41-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. The Pistons are 13-22 ATS after an ATS win this season. The Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Detroit, and 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings overall. Take the Pacers Saturday.

15* Cavs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +9.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers (25-40) are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They trail the Atlanta Hawks by four games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and also have to worry about betting by Detroit and New York. Every game is a must-win for them right now.

They have handled the pressure nicely every since trading for both Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes, which has made them a much stronger team. They just went on the road and beat Phoenix 110-101 as an 8-point underdog on Wednesday. This will be just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they will be well-rested and read to go tonight.

Meanwhile, this will be Golden State's 3rd game in 4 days, and its 7th game in 11 days. This is a tired team right now. Making matters worse is that it will be without one of its best players in Klay Thompson, who will miss this game to travel to the Bahamas for the funeral of his grandmother.

Thompson has averaged 18.8 points and gone 14 of 29 from 3-point range in four career games against Cleveland. The Cavaliers will be out for revenge from their 104-108 (OT) loss to the Warriors in their first meeting of the season on December 29. They let a 17-point lead slip away in that contest, and they clearly weren't as strong of a team then as they are now.

The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven Friday games. The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with Cleveland Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz +9.5

The Utah Jazz are showing tremendous value as a massive home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. Asking the Clippers to win by double-digits in Salt Lake City is simply asking too much.

Despite being down this season, the Jazz are still a very tough out at home. Just ask the Clippers, who have won their last three visits to Utah by a combined 5 points with finals of 116-114, 105-104 and 107-105. The Jazz will be out for revenge after losing their first two meetings this season in Los Angeles.

The Clippers come into this game way overvalued due to their current 9-game winning streak. Five of those victories have come by single-digits, and if the Clippers were to win tonight, it will be by single-digits, too. They are without their top bench player in Jamal Crawford (18.7 ppg), who is their second-leading scorer. He is doubtful to play tonight after missing the past two games with a calf injury.

The Jazz are an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 23-8 ATS in the last 31 meetings in this series. The Clippers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 visits to Salt Lake City. Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies +1

The Memphis Grizzlies (38-26) are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now. They have won 11 of their last 14 games overall to move into the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. However, they cannot relax as they lead the No. 9 Phoenix Suns by just two games.

The Grizzlies certainly will not relax tonight as they look to avenge an 87-103 home loss to the Raptors in their first meeting of the season on November 13. That was back when this team was not healthy and playing poorly. They have overcome injuries to Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Tony Allen and are now back to full strength, which is the biggest reason for their excellent play.

Toronto has been undervalued all season and is much better than it has gotten credit for. However, the betting public has caught up to the Raptors finally, and they are no longer overvalued. In fact, they are actually favored in this game tonight to prove it. They have no business being favored against a better team in the Grizzlies, which made it to the Western Conference Finals last year.

Memphis is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Friday games. Memphis is 17-8-1 ATS in its last 26 meetings with Toronto, including 9-4 ATS in its last 13 road meetings. Take the Grizzlies Friday.

20* Lakers/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -16.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder will want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season, a 110-114 road loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on March 9 just five days ago. I look for them to get payback in blowout fashion and to cover even this lofty spread with ease.

The Thunder blew an 18-point lead in that game as Jodie Meeks went off for 42 points to lead the comeback for the Lakers. Unfortunately for L.A., there will be no comeback this time once the Thunder get up big because they will remember that blown lead, and thus they'll keep the foot on the gas for four quarters.

Oklahoma City cannot afford letdowns this time of year as it trails San Antonio by just one game for the No. 1 seed in the West. It's safe to say that the Lakers have the Thunder's full attention tonight not only because of the revenge, but also because of their standing in the West.

The Lakers have dropped seven straight meetings in Oklahoma City by an average of 15.7 points, including a 97-122 loss in their lone visit this season on December 13. Los Angeles has given up an average of 129.5 points per game in its last four games overall as its defense has been non-existent. OKC has scored 114.1 points per game in its last eight games and will score at will tonight.

Los Angeles is 13-27 ATS versus very good teams that outscored their opponents by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons. The Lakers are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Oklahoma City is 74-43 ATS after having lost two of its last three games since 1996. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. OKC is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four home games. Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pelicans UNDER 191

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans. Both teams have played in some high-scoring games of late against soft defensive teams, which has inflated the number. It's time to take advantage.

New Orleans has combined with its last three opponents for 216-plus points in each game. Those three opponents: the Lakers, Bucks and Nuggets. They'll be up against one of the best defensive teams in the league tonight in Memphis, which has combined for 200-plus points in its last two games, including a 109-99 victory over high-scoring Portland last night.

These teams are very familiar with one another as this will be their 4th and final meeting of the season. They have combined for 187, 202 and 183 points in the three meetings. Dating back further, the Grizzlies and Pelicans have combined for 187 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings. They have combined for an average of 183.6 points per game in their last seven meetings, which is nearly 8 points less than tonight's posted total.

Memphis is 8-1 to the UNDER in road games versus teams that forced 14 or fewer turnovers this season. The UNDER is 10-3 in Pelicans last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four vs. a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +8.5

There aren't many bettors out there who are willing to throw down big money on the Philadelphia 76ers at this point. That's why their lines will be inflated going forward, and there will be plenty of value with this team. That is certainly the case tonight as a 9-point home dog to the Sacramento Kings.

Sure, it is concerning that the 76ers are riding a 20-game losing streak, but contrary to popular belief, they have not quit. You have to consider that these players are playing for jobs going forward, so they aren't going to pack it in. Also, they hung with the Knicks for three quarters before eventually losing 110-123 on the road last time out, so they have not packed it in.

Sacramento (22-42) has no business being this heavily favored against anyone, especially on the road. The Kings have dropped three straight road games all by double-digits to Toronto (87-99), Brooklyn (89-104) and Detroit (89-99) to fall to 9-23 away from home this year. If either one of these two teams have quit, it's the Kings.

This is a tough spot for Sacramento as well as this will be the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days. This is a tired team right now, while the 76ers come in on one days' rest. Also, this will be just the 3rd game in 7 days for Philadelphia, so it is well-rested and ready to go.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least. Indeed, Philadelphia is 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Sacramento. It has won each of the last three meetings by 9-plus points each, including a 113-104 road victory as a 9-point underdog on January 2 in their first meeting this season.

Plays against any team (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a loss against a division rival are 84-38 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* Mavericks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 210

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors. I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I foresee to be a low-scoring battle come game's end.

These teams tend to bring out the worst in one another offensively because they match up well with one another defensively. Indeed, the Mavs and Warriors have combined to score 207 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings with the UNDER going 5-1 during that stretch.

Their two meetings this season have been very low-scoring. The Warriors won 95-93 at home for 188 combined points on December 11, while the Mavericks were victorious 103-99 at home on November 27 for 202 combined points. Not counting overtime, the last six meetings have averaged a combined 195.3 points per game, which is roughly 15 points lower than tonight's posted total of 210.

Many don't realize this, but the Warriors actually rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency this season, trailing only the Pacers and Bulls. The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last four vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Warriors last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 20-6 in Warriors last 26 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The UNDER is 25-9 in Warriors last 34 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -5

The Chicago Bulls are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They are coming off their biggest win of the season in a 95-88 home victory in overtime against the defending champion Miami Heat on Sunday. It's only human nature to have a letdown off such a huge victory.

Plus, the Bulls can say they already beat the Spurs 96-86 on the road in their first meeting of the season. Meanwhile, San Antonio will be out for revenge from that defeat. That that it is healthy, it has been playing some of its best basketball of the season.

Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard, and Danny Green have all returned from injuries as the Spurs are back to full strength. It has really paid off as they have won six straight coming into this one with five of those victories coming by 9-plus points. That includes a 111-87 home victory over Miami on March 6. They have had two days' rest since last beating the Magic on Saturday, so they're well-rested and ready to go.

San Antonio is 15-3 ATS in road games versus poor foul drawing teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season. The Spurs are 32-12 ATS after scoring 105-plus points in two straight games over the last three seasons. San Antonio is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Chicago. Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +10.5

The Los Angeles Clippers should not be a double-digit favorite over the Phoenix Suns tonight. Los Angeles is simply being overvalued right now due to its 7-game winning streak, and that started to show last time out as it only won 109-108 at home over Atlanta as a 15-point favorite.

Phoenix (36-26) is tied with Memphis for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, so it has a lot to play for right now. Sure, this will be a second of a back-to-back for the Suns after falling 107-113 at Golden State as a 9.5-point underdog Sunday, but fatigue should not be a factor.

That's because the Suns had two days off prior to Sunday after last beating the Thunder on Thursday, March 6. Also, Phoenix will be motivated to avenge a 96-104 home loss to the Clippers less than a week ago on Tuesday, March 4. The Suns won their first visit this season to the Clippers by a final of 107-88 as an 8-point underdog on December 30.

There is a chance that Eric Bledsoe returns tonight as he has been cleared to play, but he'll likely return Wednesday. Also on the injury front, the Clippers are expected to be without second-leading scorer Jamal Crawford (18.7 ppg), and they simply aren't nearly as good of a team without him.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Suns are 20-8 ATS in all road games this season. Take Phoenix Monday.

25* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia 76ers +16

The Philadelphia 76ers represent my strongest play in the Atlantic Division for the entire 2013-14 season Monday. This line has clearly been inflated to the point where there is a ton of value with the road underdog because the betting public wants nothing to do with the 76ers right now.

Indeed, the 76ers come in riding an NBA-high 16-game losing streak. I don't believe they have quit at all, it's just that it has taken time to get used to playing with some new players after trading away a couple starters. This team should start gelling soon because this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they have had plenty of practice time to get used to playing together over the past week.

New York (24-40) should not be this heavily favored against anyone. It is overvalued right now due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. However, those three games came against teams that would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today. This team has played poorly all season, and they should not be getting this respect because of a brief run of solid play against soft competition.

Plays on road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 87-33 (72.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The road team has won both meetings this season, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall. The Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes. Bet the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Mavericks UNDER 196.5

Both the Dallas Mavericks and Indiana Pacers will be playing with a lot of intensity tonight. I believe that will favor the defense in this one as both teams put their best effort of the season into the defensive end of the floor.

Indiana is a pissed off team right now having lost a season-high three straight games. It has given up 112 and 109 points in its last two games, respectively, so it will be blaming the poor play on defense. As a result, it will get after it defensively. The Mavs have lost three of four while allowing 100-plus points in three of the losses, so their message will be defense heading into this one.

These teams played in the ultimate defensive battle the first time they got together this season. Dallas beat Indiana 81-73 on the road on February 12 for 154 combined points. While I do expect more points in this one, I don't foresee them sniffing 196 combined points. Each of the past four meetings have seen 186 or fewer combined points with the UNDER going 4-0.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Pacers last six vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Pacers last four Sunday games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Mavericks last five home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Thunder/Lakers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 230.5

The value in this game between the Lakers and Thunder is clearly with the UNDER. While both teams can score, the fact of the matter is that this number has been set too high, and you would be foolish to back the over on totals this high with any consistency.

The reason for the inflation here is that both teams have played in ridiculously high-scoring games of late. The Lakers and their opponents have combined for 236-plus points in three straight, while the Thunder are coming off a 250-point effort against the Suns. Both teams have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to in terms of point-scoring.

These teams have played twice this season with combined scores of 210 and 219 points, which are high, but not nearly as high as this total set tonight. Those totals were set at 204.5 and 210.5, respectively. That just goes to show you really how much value is with the UNDER in this one based on the total sets alone.

The Lakers and Thunder have not combined for more than 226 points in any of their last 30 meetings. You have to go all the way back to 2008 to find the last time that they combined for more, which was when the Thunder were the Supersonics in a 105-130 loss to the Lakers. That makes for a perfect 30-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Heat/Bulls ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 188

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls Sunday. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle, which is usually the case when these teams get together.

That was certainly the case the last time these teams met up on February 23. Miami beat Chicago 93-79 at home for 172 combined points. I look for a similar final combined score in this one this afternoon as both teams get after it defensively.

Both teams have been playing at a snails' pace this season. Chicago ranks 29th in pace at 93.0 possessions per game, while Miami surprisingly ranks 23rd in pace at 94.4 possessions per game. Chicago also ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency, allowing just 97.9 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 110 points or more are 24-4 (85.7%) since 1996. Chicago is 14-4 to the UNDER in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks/Cavaliers UNDER 199

The New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers are each trying to stay alive for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Each has a long way to go, but they are both still fighting. That's why the intensity level will be high in this game, which favors a defensive battle.

Both teams will also be tired as this is the second of a back-to-back for each. I look for the jump shots to come up short tonight, and for both offenses to struggle. There's no question that fatigue favors defense as well as neither team will be looking to push the ball much in this one.

Cleveland traded for Luol Deng before the deadline. That is huge for the UNDER here considering he will be matched up against Carmelo Anthony. The key to stopping the Knicks' offense is stopping Anthony, and Deng has been one of the most underrated defenders in the league in his career.

The Cavaliers are 11-2 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. Cleveland is 12-3 to the UNDER in a home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. The UNDER is 13-3 in Cavaliers last 16 home games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Cleveland. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +7

The New York Knicks (22-40) are getting too much respect from the books tonight. The fact of the matter is that this team is all but done for, and even a 118-106 win at Minnesota last time out does not change that. The Knicks know it, and so do I.

New York had lost seven straight and 13 of 15 prior to that win over the Timberwolves. It had been beaten by double-digits in four straight games before the win, too. Basically, this line has been inflated due to that win, and it should not have been because it didn't matter.

Utah has lost four straight games coming in, all of which have come on the road. This has also created some extra line value here as the betting public wants nothing to do with the Jazz after this stretch of basketball. I like the young players on this Jazz team, and they are not going to pack it in this early in the season as guys are playing for jobs.

Plays against any team (NEW YORK) - off a road win by 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 32-16 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Utah is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after having lost four of its last five games this season. The Knicks are 12-20 SU & 11-21 ATS at home this season. Take the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Dallas Mavericks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the Portland Trail Blazers. They have lost three straight games coming in and need to put an end to this skid in a hurry.

Dallas (36-26) only leads Memphis (34-26) by one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Losses at this point are very costly, especially three in a row. You can bet that the Mavericks will be putting their best foot forward tonight because of it.

The Mavericks have won three of their last four meetings with the Blazers. They are also 29-12 straight up in their last 41 home meetings with Portland. Rarely will you ever get Dallas as this small of a home favorite, and we'll take advantage tonight.

Portland is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games following a win by 10 points or more. Dallas is 10-1 ATS after trailing its previous game by 15 or more points at halftime over the last three seasons. The Mavericks are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games following a road loss. Dallas is 41-15 ATS in its last 56 games following an ATS loss, and 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with the Mavericks Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavaliers/Bobcats UNDER 196

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Charlotte Bobcats. Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives down the stretch, so the intensity should be at a very high level defensively.

These teams have faced each other twice this season with defense shining through. The Bobcats won both meetings 90-84 at home for 174 combined points, and 86-80 on the road for 166 combined points. From those two results alone, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER in this one.

Both teams like to play at a slow pace. Cleveland ranks 20th in pace at 95.5 possessions per game, while Charlotte is right behind them in 21st at 95.2 possessions per contest. The Cavaliers rank 24th in offensive efficiency at 99.9 points per 100 possessions, while the Bobcats are 25th at 99.6 per 100 possessions.

The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Bobcats last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Cleveland is 28-13 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more in two straight games since 1996. The Cavaliers are 60-32 to the UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games since 1996. Because the Cavs are coming off back-to-back high-scoring games, this total has been inflated. We'll take advantage. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Clippers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5

The books have set the bar way too high tonight in this contest between the Clippers and Lakers. The value is clearly with the UNDER in this game, and I'll gladly take advantage as it would take a really high-scoring effort from both teams to top this massive total.

The Clippers are expected to be without two of their best shooters, but also two of their worst defenders. J.J. Redick may miss the rest of the season, while Jamal Crawford is doubtful with a calf injury. These losses will hamper their offensive production, so the Clippers will try and make up for it on the other end.

While recent meetings between these teams have been high scoring, they have not been THIS high scoring. The Clippers and Lakers have combined for 210, 219 and 204 points in their last three meetings, respectively. Dating back further, 24 of the last 25 meetings between these teams have seen 221 or fewer combined points.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 25-8 (75.8%) since 1996. The UNDER is 35-16 in Clippers last 51 Thursday games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Thunder/Suns NBA Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 218

Both the Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder have played in some ridiculously high-scoring games of late. As a result, oddsmakers have inflated this total as both teams have created expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to.

One look at recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. Five of the past six meetings have seen 110 or fewer combined points. The past two meetings have been very low-scoring.

In their final meeting of 2012-13, the Thunder beat the Suns 97-69 on the road for 166 combined points. In their first and only meeting of 2013-14, the Thunder won 103-96 at home for 199 combined points. Oddsmakers set the total for that game at 198, and now it has been set roughly 20 points higher for the second meeting. That shows the line value here on this UNDER.

Oklahoma City is 10-1 to the UNDER after scoring 120 points or more over the past two seasons. The Thunder are 9-1 to the UNDER off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last two years. The UNDER is 21-5 in Suns last 26 Thursday games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Heat/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 209.5

The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This is a rematch from their epic 7-game NBA Finals series in which San Antonio had the title stolen away from them by Ray Allen and company.

Familiarity leads to low-scoring games. I believe the defensive intensity tonight will be very high in this rematch, especially as both teams are rounding into form as we enter the final 1/4 of the season.

One way to know that there is value with the UNDER tonight is the fact that the total has been set 4.5 points higher than in their first meeting (205) of the season. Also, eight of the past 10 meetings have seen 205 or fewer combined points.

Miami is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons. The average score in these teams has been 101.0 to 91.4, or a combined average of 192.4 points per game. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +7

The Orlando Magic are showing tremendous value as a 7-point home underdog to the Houston Rockets tonight. While they likely won't need the points, I'm going to take them for some added insurance in a game that should go right down to the wire.

Sure, Houston is the more talented team, but this is a very tough spot for the Rockets. Indeed, they will be playing the second of a back-to-back off arguably their biggest win of the season last night against the defending champion Miami Heat. It's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown off that victory.

Orlando, meanwhile, comes in on two days' rest and ready to go. The Magic have been extremely tough at home over the past month. They have gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games overall with their only loss coming to Memphis by a final of 81-86. They have beaten the top two teams in each conference in Oklahoma City and Indiana during this stretch, too.

Another bonus is that leading scorer Arron Afflalo is expected to return after a five-game absence. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Orlando is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. Houston is 0-8 ATS in its last eight meetings with Orlando. Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -4.5

Off a 96-98 home loss to the Golden State Warriors last night, the league-best Indiana Pacers will come back highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have only lost two games in a row one time this season, and it's not about to happen against a team they have dominated.

Indeed, the Pacers are 14-1 in their last 15 meetings with the Bobcats. They have won the last five by an average of 17.8 points per game. Indiana cruised to a 99-74 victory at Charlotte on November 27. Its last two trips to Charlotte have resulted in wins by a combined 52 points.

The Bobcats are in a bit of a letdown spot here as they return home from a grueling 3-game trip against San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Miami. They went 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in those three contests, losing each by double-digits. That just proved that this team still has a long ways to go before it can compete with the league's elite, such as Indiana.

"Mentally, we've got to be way tougher than we are because it's time, you know, it's just time," David West said. "It's just not something that you can just say a week before the playoffs, say, 'OK.' You've got to work your way into it. But as a group, it's time. We've got a tough three-game trip coming up and it's just time."

"We've been getting away with playing sub-.500 teams and winning ballgames like these," Paul George said. "We just can't play with fire on nights like these."

I believe in the leadership of this team with West and George at the forefront. When they say they are going to do something, they usually go out and do it. That's why I look for this team to rally around these two and to come up with one of their most dominant performances of the season tonight in Charlotte.

The Pacers are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. loss. The Bobcats are 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Thunder UNDER 219

The books have set the bar too high with this total tonight between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Philadelphia 76ers. I fully expect an Oklahoma City blowout, which will lead to the starters getting pulled early. The Thunder do not have a deep bench scoring-wise as their bench is mostly filled with players known more for their defense.

These teams met once this season with the Thunder winning 103-91 on January 25 with a total set of 208 points. Now, the books have set the number 11 points higher than the previous meeting despite their 194-point effort. As you can see, there's clearly value with the under here based on the 11-point difference alone.

Philadelphia was a high-scoring machine through the first half of the season, which created a lot of expectations. However, it has traded away two of its best players in Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner, and now points have been much harder to come by. The 76ers have been held to 100 or fewer points in six of their last nine games overall, including an 81-92 loss at Orlando last time out.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 29-9 (76.3%) over the last five seasons.

Philadelphia is 9-1 to the UNDER in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. Oklahoma City is 28-11 to the UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 10-2-1 in 76ers last 13 road games, and 6-0-2 in 76ers last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves (29-29) are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They currently sit 5.5 games behind both the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks for the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference. As a result, you can expect them to lay it all on the line from here on out.

The Timberwolves have responded well to the pressure of these must-win games since the All-Star Break. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, which includes a home win over Indiana (104-91) and a road victory at Phoenix (110-101). In fact, all five of their wins came by 9 points or more. This team is much better than its record would indicate as it simply fell victim to a plethora of close losses in the first half of the season.

Denver (25-33) has clearly quit on its season. It has gone 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall, which included a 90-117 road loss at Minnesota on February 12. Not helping matters is the fact that the Nuggets are without their best player in Ty Lawson (18.0 ppg, 8.8 apg). They are also without Danilo Gallinari, JaVale McGee and Nate Robinson. Also, Kenneth Faried (11.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg) is questionable tonight with a knee injury.

The Timberwolves are an incredible 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Denver is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games overall, including 0-5 ATS in its last five home games. The Nuggets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Minnesota is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 meetings in Denver. The road team is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Pacers UNDER 189.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers tonight. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER in what I expect to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league. It is giving up 91.2 points per game overall, and 86.6 points per game at home. The Pacers rank 1st in defensive efficiency, giving up just 94.3 points per 100 possessions. The Jazz rank just 23rd in offensive efficiency, scoring 100.4 points per 100 possessions. Utah also ranks 27th in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.

These teams met once already this season with the Pacers winning 95-86 in Utah for 181 combined points. The books set the total at 185.5 points for that contest, and now they have set it at 189.5 for the rematch. That alone tells you there is some value here with the UNDER.

Utah is 7-0 to the UNDER against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. Indiana is 8-0 to the UNDER In a home game where the total is between 185 and 189.5 this season. The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last seven road games. These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves (28-29) are essentially in a must-win situation for the remainder of the season. That's good news when you decide to back them considering they will be giving it their all on a nightly basis.

I really like the Timberwolves here as a short road favorite here against the Sacramento Kings. They are 5.5 games back of the Suns for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Kings (20-38) currently hold the second-worst record in the West.

Minnesota is surging, having won four of its last five games overall while going 4-1 ATS in the process. That includes a 104-91 home win over Eastern Conference-leading Indiana, as well as a 110-101 road win at Phoenix last time out. That game against the Suns was on February 25, meaning that the T'Wolves will have had three days' rest heading into this one.

Sacramento, meanwhile, is coming off a 122-126 loss at the Los Angeles Lakers last night. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back. The Kings have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall, and they're starting to show signs of already packing it in given that they have little to play for the rest of the way.

Minnesota is 12-3 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent this season. The Timberwolves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Kings are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +14

The Miami Heat are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers right now for how well they have been playing of late. They have won six straight games while going 5-0-1 ATS in the process.

Now, the Heat are clearly overvalued as a 14-point favorite over the Orlando Magic tonight. They have a tendency to play down to the level of their competition, and I believe that is precisely what is going to happen tonight.

Orlando has clearly not given up on its season. It is 5-5 in its last 10 games overall, which is impressive considering it has beaten Oklahoma City and Indiana during this stretch, which are currently the top teams in their respective conferences.

The Magic have a knack for playing the Heat tough on the road for whatever reason. They have not lost by more than 12 points in any of their last six visits to South Beach. In fact, they only lost 99-101 as a 13-point dog in their first trip to Miami this season back on November 23.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls/Mavericks UNDER 192.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Chicago Bulls and Dallas Mavericks tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Chicago is one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season, averaging just 92.9 points per game overall and 91.9 on the road. However, it makes up for it with a defense that surrenders just 92.3 points per game. The Bulls rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding just 97.7 points per 100 possessions. They rank 28th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.

When the Bulls and Mavericks get together, Chicago's slow-it-down, half-court style usually reigns supreme. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings, and they have combined for 188 or fewer points in five of the six. Dallas and Chicago have averaged a combined 178.2 points per game over their last six meetings, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-1 in Mavericks last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 12-4 to the UNDER off a home win this season. The Bulls are 27-13 to the UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last two seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Griizzlies/Thunder Western Conference No-Brainer on UNDER 193.5

I look for a defensive battle between these two Western Conference rivals who seem to meet in the playoffs every year. As a result, they are very familiar with one another, and familiarity leads to low-scoring games.

That has certainly been the case in the past two meetings between these teams. Indeed, they combined for 163 points in an 86-77 home victory for the Thunder on February 3, and 177 points in a 90-87 home victory for the Grizzlies on January 14. Seven of the past nine meetings have seen 192 or less combined points.

Oklahoma City has to blame its defense for a 3-game losing streak coming into this one, allowing 103-plus points in all three losses. I look for it to buckle down on that side of the ball tonight. Memphis is only scoring 92.9 points per game on the road this year, but allowing a super 91.5 points per game away from home. The Thunder rank 4th in the league defensive efficiency, while the Grizzlies rank 8th.

Memphis is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game in the second half of the season this season. The UNDER is 7-0 in Grizzlies last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. These two trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* NBA Thursday Night TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Wizards/Raptors UNDER 197

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and side with the UNDER in what I predict will be a very low-scoring affair.

Familiarity favors defense, and these teams are clearly very familiar with one another. This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season between these division rivals. They just played on February 18 nine days ago in a 103-93 road victory for the Raptors. They combined for only 196 points despite Toronto shooting 57% from the field, and Washington shooting 47%.

It's very unlikely that both teams shoot that well again. In fact, that 196 combined points was the most between these teams in their last four meetings. They have combined for 196, 189, 184 and 166 points in their last four meetings, respectively, with the UNDER going 4-0. That's an average of 183.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 197.

Washington is 75-42 to the UNDER in its last 117 road games with a total set between 195 and 199.5 points. The Wizards are 11-2 to the UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Wizards last seven Thursday games, while the UNDER is 20-6 in Raptors last 26 Thursday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder (43-14) are trying to capture the No. 1 seed in the West. Two straight losses to Miami and the Los Angeles Clippers since the All-Star Break certainly have not helped their cause, and I fully expect them to come back highly motivated for a victory tonight because of it.

I faded the Thunder with success in both of those losses to the Heat and Clippers. Part of my reasoning was that Russell Westbrook had just returned from injury since the All-Star Break, and that they would be out of sync with him back in the lineup. Now, with two games and nearly a week of practice with Westbrook under their belts, they should be in sync tonight.

Helping matters will be the fact that they'll get to play one of the worst teams in the league in the Cleveland Cavaliers. While the Thunder come in on two days' rest, the Cavaliers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the league today. Cleveland is also deflated right now after having lost three straight coming in, which really puts a damper on its chances of making the playoffs. The Cavs are also short-handed right now, playing without three key players in Anderson Varejao, Dion Waiters and C.J. Miles.

Mark Brooks is 51-25 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last four against the spread as the coach of Oklahoma City. Brooks is 54-26 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Oklahoma City. As you can see, this team tends to respond in a big way off a poor performance, and a string of performances where they didn't meet expectations. The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. loss. The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Take the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -10.5

The Memphis Grizzlies (31-24) currently sit in 9th place in the Western Conference, trailing the Phoenix Suns by 1.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot. As a result, they won't be overlooking anyone the rest of the way as they try and play catch up.

They certainly won't be overlooking the Lakers, who beat them 96-92 back on December 17 as a 2.5-point underdog. However, these are two completely different teams since that meeting. The Grizzlies are finally healthy, while the Lakers are simply playing out the string and playing different lineups to see what they have heading into next year.

Memphis had won four straight prior to an 89-92 loss at Charlotte on Sunday. They have had two days off since that game to rest, working on their mistakes, and prepare for the Lakers. Meanwhile, the Lakers will be playing a second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after getting destroyed 98-118 at Indiana last night. I expect a similar beat down at the hands of the Grizz tonight.

The Grizzlies are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference opponents. Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall, which includes three losses by 17-plus points. Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Cavaliers UNDER 194

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between these two Eastern Conference playoff contenders Tuesday.

One of my biggest reasons for backing the UNDER is familiarity. These teams literally just played a few days ago on February 21 as Toronto won 98-81 at home for 189 combined points. Just four days later, these teams square off again and are obviously very familiar with one another. Familiarity favors defense more than offense. Plus, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in this series.

It's also worth noting that both teams love to play at a slow pace. Toronto ranks 22nd in the league in pace, averaging just 94.6 possessions per game. Cleveland ranks 20th in pace, averaging 95.6 possessions per contest. One of the biggest reasons for Toronto's improvement this season has been its defense. It ranks 7th in the league in defensive efficiency, yielding only 100.9 points per 100 possessions.

The Raptors are 20-5-1 to the UNDER in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 21-7 to the UNDER in a home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cavaliers last five games overall, 12-2 in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, and 11-2 in their last 13 home games. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Clippers -3

I backed the Los Angeles Clippers +5 in an outright victory at Oklahoma City Sunday. I'll back them again tonight as a mere 3-point road favorite over the New Orleans Pelicans. While some might consider this a letdown spot, I look at it much differently.

The biggest reason I was on the Clippers yesterday is because they had lost two straight coming in and hadn't lost three in a row all season. If they were on an extended winning streak and had just beaten the Thunder, then this would have been a letdown spot. But, considering they've still lost two of their last three, the Clippers will have no problem giving the Pelicans their full attention.

I give the Pelicans a lot of credit for the way they have battled despite devastating injuries to two of their best players in Jrue Holiday (14.3 ppg, 7.9 apg) and Ryan Anderson (19.8 ppg). Both of these players remain out, and the Pelicans have faltered to just a 23-32 record to this point because of it.

The Clippers have won four straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Pelicans, including a 108-95 home victory in their lone meeting this season. Five of those six victories have come by 9 points or more, so the Pelicans have rarely been competitive with the Clippers since Chris Paul joined them. Bet Los Angeles Monday.

15* Clippers/Thunder ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +5

The Los Angeles Clippers are going to be highly motivated for a victory this afternoon. There's no question they will be putting their best foot forward, which is why they are showing such great value as an underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder here.

The Clippers have lost back-to-back games to the Spurs and Grizzlies out of the All-Star Break. Only four times all season have they lost two in a row, and not once have they lost three straight. So, this just goes to show how resilient this team is, and how good Doc Rivers is at getting his players to respond.

Oklahoma City is coming off a deflating 81-103 home loss to Miami last time out. It's always tough to come back and play the next game after playing the defending world champs. I look for the Thunder to suffer a hangover effect, and for them to continue to struggle with trying to get Russell Westbrook involved in the offense as he just returned from injury for the Heat game.

The Clippers are 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. Los Angeles is 11-3 ATS off a road loss this year. The Clippers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss overall. Los Angeles is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the Clippers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pacers/Bucks UNDER 190

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and the Milwaukee Bucks. We have the best defensive team in the league up against one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. The result will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

The Pacers rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 93.9 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks rank 29th in offensive efficiency, putting up a mere 96.7 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks also like to play at a slow tempo, ranking 25th in the league in pace at 94.2 possessions per game.

Taking a look at recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The Pacers and Bucks have combined for 181 or fewer points in each of their last three meetings, averaging a combined 178.7 points per game in those three contests. That's roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total.

Indiana is 18-4 to the UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Note: this total is 189.5 or less in most places. The UNDER is 7-1 in Pacers last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Bucks last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Memphis Grizzlies represent my favorite play in an East vs. West matchup for the entire month of February. I'll gladly back them as a small road favorite over the Charlotte Bobcats Saturday night.

Memphis (31-23) trails Dallas by one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. That means that the Grizzlies cannot afford to overlook anyone from here on out if they want to make the postseason.

Charlotte (26-30) is getting a lot of love from the books and the betting public because of its improvement this season. However, this team is not even on the same playing field as Memphis, which is a much better basketball team, and that will show in the final score tonight.

My biggest reason for fading the Bobcats is the fact that this will be the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days. This is one of the toughest situations in the NBA, especially for the short-handed Bobcats, who just recently traded away Ramon Sessions and Jeff Adrien.

The Grizzlies are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Bobcats, including a 94-75 victory in their most recent meeting. Memphis is 10-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Charlotte is 2-17 ATS when playing its 4th game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Jazz/Blazers OVER 202

The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers. I'll take the free money and back the OVER tonight as both teams likely top the 100-point mark in this one.

Portland is one of the best offensive teams in the league this season. It is averaging 107.9 points per game while also ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency. However, the Blazers are giving up 103.9 points per game while ranking 23rd in defensive efficiency.

The Jazz haven't been the best offensive team this season, but should get going tonight against this poor Blazers' defense. The Jazz are giving up 100.3 points per game this season, including 101.0 points per game on the road on 47.5% shooting.

Each of the last five meetings in this series have seen 199 or more points. The last time these teams met in Portland on December 6, they combined for 228 points. Playing at home, the Blazers will control the tempo, and they like to get up and down.

The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Portland. The OVER is 30-14-1 in Blazers last 45 home games. The OVER is 17-8-1 in Blazers last 26 vs. Western Conference. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Cleveland Cavaliers +9

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Asking the Toronto Raptors to beat them by double-digits tonight to beat us is simply asking too much. I'll side with the road underdog showing tremendous value because of it.

Cleveland is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall. That includes road wins over Washington, Detroit and Philadelphia, as well as a home win against Memphis during this stretch. This team is hungry to make the playoffs as it trails the Bobcats by just 3 games for the 8th and final spot in the East.

Toronto has been an underrated team for most of the season. However, it is clearly being overvalued here as such a massive home favorite. Four of the last six meetings between these teams were decided by 8 points or less, and the Cavaliers have only been beaten by more than 8 points in one of their last six meetings with the Raptors.

The underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Toronto. Roll with Cleveland Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -3

The New York Knicks (21-33) have to make a run now if they want to make the NBA playoffs. They trail the Charlotte Bobcats by 3.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They certainly cannot afford to lose to the Magic tonight.

After a hard-fought 93-98 loss at Memphis in their first game back from the break, the Knicks went into New Orleans and came away with a gutty 98-91 victory. I look for them to go into hapless Orlando (16-40) and to win going away tonight.

This has been a one-sided series of late to say the least. Indeed, the Knicks are a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Magic. They have won all eight meetings by 5 points or more, including six of them by double-digits.

The Knicks are 27-13 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Magic are 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games versus good ball handling teams who commit 14 or less turnovers. Take the Knicks Friday.