20* Cavs/Spurs NBC No-Brainer on OVER 243

De'Aron Fox participated in shootaround today which is a good sign he'll return to the lineup.  The Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup due to what he brings offensively with his ability to push the pace and get easy shots for teammates.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall and that is largely due to getting healthy as well.  They went for 250 combined points with New York, 259 with New Orleans, 271 with Charlotte and 261 with Chicago.

This is a rematch from December 5th earlier this month when the Cavs won 130-117 over the Spurs for 247 combined points.  This game only saw 48 points in the 4th quarter so it could have easily been even more high-scoring.  The Cavs shot 31% from 3 and the Spurs 35%, so it's not like either team shot lights out.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +6

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with upset wins at Minnesota by 16 as 12-point dogs, at Philadelphia by 8 as 9-point dogs, vs. Toronto by 15 as 3.5-point dogs, vs. Milwaukee by 45 as 1.5-point dogs, at Chicago by 10 as 8-point dogs and vs. Charlotte by 13 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also beat New Orleans by 18 as 3.5-point home favorites.  They are grossly undervalued right now.

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors.  They are coming off a 141-127 (OT) loss at Toronto last night and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Even though both Curry and Butler are expected to play tonight, I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Nets, who had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.

Curry played 41 minutes last night and Butler played 37 minutes.  The Warriors have been awful on the road all season going 6-12 SU & 7-11 ATS.  They should not be laying 6 points to the Nets, who will likely win this game outright as well.  Bet the Nets Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Heat OVER 245

We have two dead nuts OVER teams squaring off tonight with the Denver Nuggets visiting the Miami Heat.  The Heat are an OVER team because they rank 1st in pace, while the Nuggets are an OVER team because they rank 1st in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating.

The Nuggets are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 games overall.  In their last two road games, they went for 261 combined points at Dallas and 253 combined points at Orlando.  It will be more of the same tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Heat are as healthy as they have been in a long time and coming off 142 points against the Pacers and 126 against the Hawks.  They have both Larsson and Jovic back in the lineup and these are two playmakers offensively that they have been missing.  They combined for 35 points against the Pacers and 31 against the Hawks.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5

The Boston Celtics are a better team than most people realize this season.  They are 19-11 SU & 17-13 ATS while ranking 4th in the NBA in net rating (+7), trailing only the Thunder, Rockets and Nuggets in that department.  So they have consistently been the best team in the East even ahead of the Knicks.

The Celtics are 14-4 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall and have stayed remarkably healthy with nobody on the injury report currently.  They have been at their best on the road during this stretch going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  They won by 18 at Indiana and by 16 at Toronto in their last two road games.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a mess right now due to to all their injuries.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall which have all come at home.  They lost by 8 to Detroit, by 4 to Orlando and by 16 to the short-handed Clippers.

Avidja and Sharpe are solid players, but the Blazers are really missing a point guard without Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson.  They are also without Jerami Grant and Robert Williams.  Avidja and Sharpe are being asked to do too much of the ball-handling and their offense is a mess.  They have scored 106 or fewer points in four consecutive games now.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Wizards OVER 240

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 8th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and their offense thrives with Alex Sarr (18.2 PPG) in the lineup.

The Wizards are coming off a 138-117 home win over the Raptors for 255 combined points.  They just recently played the Grizzlies and beat them 130-122 for 252 combined points on December 20th.  Neither team shot the lights out either as the Wizards shot 47.5% and the Grizzlies 45%.

The Grizzlies now have JA Morant back in the lineup who they didn't have in that first meeting with the Wizards.  Morant is a dead nuts OVER player providing a lot on the offensive end including extra pace, but nothing on defense.  The Grizzlies have scored at least 119 points in six of their last eight games including 125 and 137 in their last two.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 252 combined points in each of the last two meetings.  This total of 240 is too short tonight for two teams that rank inside the Top 10 in pace.  Bet he OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +11

The Brooklyn Nets have quietly gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins at Philadelphia by 8 as 9-point dogs, vs. Toronto by 15 as 3.5-point dogs, vs. Milwaukee by 45 as 1.5-point dogs, at Chicago by 10 as 8-point dogs and vs. Charlotte by 13 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also beat New Orleans by 18 as 3.5-point home favorites.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a gutting 142-138 (OT) loss to the Denver Nuggets on Christmas Day.  I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and with the way the Timberwolves are playing right now they have no business being double-digit favorites over the Nets.

The Timberwolves have been grossly overvalued all season going 12-19 ATS in all games.  They tend to play to the level of their competition, which is why they have just two wins in their last 17 games by more than 11 points, and those came by 13 and 14 points.  They just aren't blowing anyone out, and they won't be blowing out the Nets tonight, either.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Bulls OVER 235

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and showing how potent they can be offensively when that's the case.

The Bulls are 5-0 in the last four games scoring 127 and 136 against Cleveland and 152 and 126 against Atlanta.  They went for 249, 302 and 261 combined points in their last three games prior to last night's 109-102 win over the 76ers where neither team shot it well.

I expect this game against the Bucks to be much more high-scoring, especially with Giannis Antetokounmpo (28.9 PPG) making his much-anticipated return from a calf injury.  They are fully healthy everywhere else and a potent offensive team when that's the case.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Spurs OVER 242.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in all seven games.  This total of 242.5 is pretty short for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Spurs will have no problem running with them.  The Spurs and their opponents have combined for at least 237 points in nine of their last 14 games overall.  The Spurs and Jazz have combined for 243 and 244 points in their last two meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Pelicans OVER 237

The Pelicans are 10-5 OVER in their last 15 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 15 games.  The Pelicans rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 11-3 OVER in their last 14 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last 12 home games.  This total of 237 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home, especially with their offense taking off even more since getting Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole back healthy in recent games.

The Suns are coming off a pair of OVERS combining for 235 points at Golden State and 240 points at home against the Lakers.  The Suns are playing a pressing style for four quarters that could give the Pelicans troubles with turnovers and quick buckets for the Suns in transition.  That style will also up the tempo in this game overall, which the Pelicans have no problem with.

This is a rematch from a 115-108 win by the Suns last night in New Orleans for just 223 combined points.  The pace was there for the OVER, but the shooting was abysmal.  Phoenix shot 8-of-40 (20%) from 3, while New Orleans shot 5-of-25 (20%) from 3 and missed 17 free throws.  I have to think both teams will shoot much better in the rematch tonight and this thing will sail OVER 237 combined points as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Jazz OVER 243.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They are really an OVER team at home where they dictate pace, which is what they'll do tonight against the Detroit Pistons, forcing them to get into a run-and-gun game with them.

The Jazz are 13-4 OVER in their 17 home games this season averaging 255.9 combined points per game at home.  Their last four home games have been ridiculously high-scoring combining for 265 points with the Grizzlies, 255 with the Magic, 278 with the Lakers and 273 with the Mavs.  This total of 243.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Utah at home.

The Pistons are coming off a 136-127 road win at Sacramento for 263 combined points.  The Pistons won't mind getting in a shootout with the Jazz tonight as they are the better team, so more possessions is good for them.  Both teams are also very healthy coming into this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Pelicans OVER 238.5

The Pelicans are 10-4 OVER in their last 14 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 14 games.  The Pelicans rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last 11 home games.  This total of 238.5 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home, especially with their offense taking off even more since getting Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole back healthy in recent games.

The Suns are coming off a pair of OVERS combining for 235 points at Golden State and 240 points at home against the Lakers.  The Suns are playing a pressing style for four quarters that could give the Pelicans troubles with turnovers and quick buckets for the Suns in transition.  That style will also up the tempo in this game overall, which the Pelicans have no problem with.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Pelicans and Suns.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Bulls OVER 239.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season and showing how potent they can be offensively when that's the case.

The Bulls are 4-0 in the last four games scoring 127 and 136 against Cleveland and 152 and 126 against Atlanta.  They went for 249, 302 and 261 combined points in their last three games, so this total of 239.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Chicago right now.

The Bulls should stay hot against the 76ers, who won't mind getting in a shootout with them tonight.  The 76ers also come in very healthy with Maxey, George, Edgecombe, Barlow and Grimes all expected to play.  Embiid is questionable.  The 76ers have the firepower with all these guys healthy to keep up with the Bulls in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls ML +100

The Chicago Bulls are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  The result has been a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS run in their last four games.  After beating the Cavs 127-111 as 5.5-point home dogs, they backed it up by beating the Cavs 136-125 as 8-point road dogs in the rematch.  After beating the Hawks 152-150 as 2-point road favorites, they backed it up with a 126-123 road win at Atlanta as 3.5-point dogs.

Now they take on a struggling Philadelphia 76ers team that is coming off a 114-106 home loss to the Nets as 9.5-point favorites.  They have the 76ers' number, too, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings while outscoring the 76ers by a combined 64 points in those three wins.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Friday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on OVER 230.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are a perfect 11-0 OVER in their 11 home games this season.  Los Angeles home games are averaging 244.1 combined points per game.  It looks as though the Lakers will get Luka Doncic back as he has been upgraded to questionable, while Austin Reaves and LeBron are both healthy.  It hasn't mattered who has been in the lineup the Lakers have been a dead nuts OVER team all season, especially at home.

Houston is the 2nd-best road OVER team in the NBA.  The Rockets are 12-5 OVER in all road games averaging 235.3 combined points per game.  The OVER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven games overall with 231 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234, 254 and 249 combined points in the three OVERS.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Thunder UNDER 233.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between the Spurs and Thunder since the NBA Cup semifinals on December 13th.  These teams know each inside and out, and points will be very hard to come by tonight.

The Spurs upset the Thunder 111-109 for 220 combined points in that NBA Cup semifinal on December 13th.  The Spurs backed it up with a 130-110 home win over the Thunder for 240 combined points on December 23rd just two days ago.  Both teams shot lights out with the Thunder shooting 54% overall and 40% from 3-point range, while the Spurs shot 57% overall and 44% from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot that well again.

The Spurs and Thunder have combined for 220 or fewer points in four of their last six meetings.  The Thunder have been dominant defensively at home allowing just 103.9 points per game.  I fully expect them to shut down the Spurs in this rematch and to lead the way in us cashing this UNDER ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -9

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder on Christmas Day.  They are 26-4 this season with two of those losses coming to the San Antonio Spurs within the last two weeks.  They lost 111-109 in the NBA Cup semifinal and 130-110 in the rematch in San Antonio on December 23rd just two days ago.  It's safe to say the Thunder will be max motivated for revenge.

I like the Thunder's chances in their first home meeting with the Spurs this season.  The Thunder are 14-0 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by a whopping 19.3 points per game.  Their last four home games have been particularly dominant beating the Grizzlies by 16, the Clippers by 21, the Suns by 49 and the Mavericks by 21.

While the Thunder will be max motivated, I think this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Spurs.  They just beat the Thunder twice so what more do they have to prove?  I think they relax here and get rocked.  In that 130-110 win two days ago, the Spurs shot 57% from the field and 44% from 3-point range while attempting 17 more FT than OKC.  None of that is going to even come close to happening again here two days later.

The last three meetings in OKC have not been close with the Thunder winning by 12, 38 and 36 points over the Spurs.  The Thunder have the best home-court advantage in the NBA and it will be a raucous crowd for them on Christmas Day.  OKC is also as healthy as it has been in a long time and primed for a big effort as a result.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 10-1 ATS in their 11 games overall and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall to be one of the best covering teams in the NBA over the last month.  They have gotten healthy and they are proving they have the offense to compete with almost anyone.

Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole are back healthy to join Trey Murphy, Derik Queen and company for a very talented offensive lineup.  The Pelicans have won five straight with a 23-point home win over Portland, a 10-point road win at Chicago, a 5-point upset home win over Houston, a 19-point home win over the Pacers and a 6-point home win over the Mavs.

The Pelicans are a deep team that can handle these back-to-back situations better than most.  The Cavaliers are not a deep team this season largely due to injuries.  They remain without Evan Mobley and Max Strus.

The Cavaliers have been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season going 8-22 ATS in their 30 games.  They are 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games with their two wins coming by 4 as 17-point favorites over the Wizards and by 7 as 9.5-point favorites over the Hornets.  They aren't blowing anyone out, and asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us against the red hot Pelicans is asking too much.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Hawks OVER 252.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams who are all offense and no defense square off Tuesday when the Chicago Bulls visit the Atlanta Hawks.  The Bulls rank 2nd in pace and 24th in defensive rating, while the Hawks rank 5th in pace and 18th in defensive rating.

The Hawks recently got Trae Young back healthy and he is the ultimate OVER player.  The OVER is 6-1 in Hawks last seven games overall going for 247 or more combined points in four of those seven games.  That includes 257 or more combined points four times.

Chicago is as healthy as it has been all season and thriving offensively as a result.  The Bulls have scored 152, 136 and 127 points in their last three games coming in.  The 152 came in a 152-150 win over the Hawks on Sunday for 302 combined points.

So we are basically getting 50 points to work with here in the rematch with this total set at 252.5.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 251 or more combined points in four of those five.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -1

The Milwaukee Bucks have more talent than they get credit for without Giannis.  Porter Jr., Rollins, Kuzma, Turner, Portis and Green are all healthy and doing more to try and get by without him.  They just took the Timberwolves to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 11.5-point dogs, and they will be motivated for a win tonight against the Indiana Pacers.

I think Milwaukee has more talent than Indiana, which is 6-23 SU this season and currently without Haliburton, Toppin, Nesmith, Sheppard and Jackson with McConnell questionable.  The Pacers are 0-5 SU in their last six games overall including a 19-point road loss to New Orleans and a 19-point home loss to Washington.

The spot really favors the Bucks, who had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 103-95 loss in Boston last night.  They will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  Siakam, Mathurin and Nembhard who are shouldering all the load right now all played at least 36 minutes last night.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Cavs OVER 239

The Pelicans are 9-4 OVER in their last 13 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in nine of those 13 games.  The Pelicans rank 9th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

The Pelicans and Mavs combined for 232 points last night despite a terrible shooting night for both teams.  The Mavs shot 10-of-33 (30%) from 3-point range and 11-of-21 (51%) from the line.  The Pelicans shot 8-of-34 (24%) from 3-point range.  The pace was there for an OVER, but the shooting wasn't.

The pace will be there tonight against the Cavaliers, who rank 8th in pace and 10th in offensive rating.  The Cavs are coming off a 139-132 home win over the Hornets last night for 271 combined points.  They also went for 261 combined points with the Bulls the game prior.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Pelicans and Cavs.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Washington Wizards +5.5

The spot really favors the Washington Wizards tonight.  They had yesterday off, while the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 139-132 loss in Cleveland last night.  I question how much the Hornets will have left in the tank here tonight, and they could also choose to rest some guys including La'Melo Ball, who has been battling through an ankle injury all season.

The Wizards are playing a lot better since getting their best player in Alex Sarr (18.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.9 BPG) healthy and back in the lineup.  The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with upset road wins over Indiana by 19 and Memphis by 8.  Their only losses came by 4 to Cleveland and twice to San Antonio.

The Hornets are 5-13 SU in their last 18 games with two of those wins coming in OT.  This is a team that's hard to trust to lay points against anyone, even the Wizards.  That's especially the case with the Wizards in the better rest spot tonight and playing some of their best basketball of the season.  Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 231.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best defensive team in the NBA by a wide margin.  They are 1st in defensive rating at 6.5 points per 100 possessions allowed better than the 2nd place Pistons.  They went for 219 combined points with Minnesota, 223 with the Clippers and 220 with the Spurs in their last three games overall.  This total of 231.5 is too high for a game involving the Thunder right now, especially when you consider they will be without Chet Holmgren tonight.

Memphis and its opponents have combined for 226 or fewer points in six of its last nine games overall.  This total of 231.5 is very high for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.  That's especially the case considering they will be without JA Morant tonight.  They just don't have much offensive firepower right now, and I would be surprised if they even reached 100 points against this elite OKC defense tonight.  

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Thunder and Grizzlies.  They combined for just 214 points in their lone meeting this season, and they have combined for 232 or fewer points in seven straight meetings, including 229 or fewer in seven of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Pelicans OVER 240.5

The Pelicans are 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 237 points at the end of regulation in nine of those 12 games.  The Pelicans rank 11th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last 10 home games.  This total of 240.5 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home, especially with their offense taking off even more since getting Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole back healthy in recent games.

The Mavericks quietly profile as an OVER team ranking 7th in pace this season.  They are playing a lot faster with the emergence of Ryan Nembhard at point guard.  They are also playing more small ball this season with injuries to their big men.

Last time out, the Mavericks lost 121-114 in Philadelphia for 235 combined points.  The Mavericks shot 17% from 3 while the 76ers shot 43% overall and 30% from 3, yet they still went for 235 combined points.  The Pelicans are shooting at an elite level right now, and the Mavericks will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans ML -115

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 9-1 ATS in their 10 games overall and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall to be one of the best covering teams in the NBA over the last month.  They have gotten healthy and they are proving they have the offense to compete with almost anyone.

Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole are back healthy to join Trey Murphy, Derik Queen and company for a very talented offensive lineup.  The Pelicans have won four straight with a 23-point home win over Portland, a 10-pint road win at Chicago, a 5-point upset home win over Houston and 19-point home win over the Pacers.

The Mavericks are dealing with a lot of injuries right now and will be without Max Christie tonight.  Cooper Flagg popped up on the injury report as questionable.  The Mavericks are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games losing by 7 at Philadelphia against a 76ers team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They lost by 7 in Utah and by 21 in OKC, too.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +12

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a massive letdown spot.  They are coming off a 112-107 upset home win as 7-point dogs over the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.  They handed the Thunder just their 3rd loss of the season, and I fully expect the Timberwolves to be flat as a pancake Sunday.

The Milwaukee Bucks continue to play competitive basketball without Giannis.  They upset the Celtics by 15 as 9.5-point dogs recently.  They have also owned the Timberwolves going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  They will be giving their best effort tonight, and it will be good enough to stay within this inflated 12-point spread.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

15* Lakers/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

The Lakers are 18-8 OVER in all games this season.  The Lakers are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall finishing with 230 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  This total of 229.5 is too short for a game involving the Lakers right now.

The Clippers are as healthy as they have been in a long time with both Harden and Leonard expected to play in this one.  They won't mind getting in a shootout with the Lakers.  They just did on November 25th with the Lakers winning 135-118 for 253 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pistons OVER 232.5

The Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team right now thanks to the return of La'Melo Ball (19.9 PPG, 8.8 APG) to go along with three proven scorers in Miles Bridges (21.4 PPG), Kon Kneuppel (19.4 PPG) and Brandon Miller (18.2 PPG).

Ball returned last game to lead the Hornets to a 133-126 home win over the Hawks and 259 combined points.  He had 28 points and 13 assists in his return.  Kenueppel had 28 points, Miller 26 and Bridges 16 in the win.  The Hornets play faster with Ball and are worse off defensively, but they are actually a very good offensive team when he's in there.

The Pistons are fully healthy right now and a very good offensive team when that's the case.  The Pistons are 3-0 OVER in their last three home games combining for 257 points with Atlanta, 236 with Milwaukee and 238 with Portland.  This total of 232.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Pelicans OVER 233

The Pelicans are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 238 points at the end of regulation in eight of those 11 games.  The Pelicans rank 14th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 home games going for 241 or more combined points in eight of their last nine home games.  This total of 233 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home.

The Pacers also like to play with pace and will have no problem getting up and down with the Pelicans in this one.  Look for Indiana to have one of its best offensive outputs of the season tonight to keep up with New Orleans in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets ML +105

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They are playing with double-revenge after a 3-point home loss to the Nuggets on November 21st followed by a 3-point road loss to the Nuggets on December 15th in OT just a few days ago.  They got called for a bogus off the ball foul on an inbounds play in the final seconds that allowed the Nuggets to force OT.

Predictably, the Rockets were flat in their next game losing outright as 9.5-point road favorites at New Orleans.  It was a sandwich spot coming off that deflating loss to the Nuggets, and with a rematch with the Nuggets on deck today.  Now we will get their best effort as this is the game they want to win more than any other this season.

The Nuggets are 'fat and happy' having already beaten the Rockets twice.  I don't think we get their best effort here as a result.  Keep in mind the Rockets were 1-point road favorites at Denver just a few days ago, so they should not be underdogs in the rematch.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Rockets on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Nuggets UNDER 237.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams just met five days ago on December 15th.  They also squared off on November 21st.  So this will be the 3rd meeting between the Nuggets and Rockets in less than a month.

The first meeting was a defensive battle with Denver winning 112-109 for just 221 combined points.  The most recent meeting was tied 117-117 at the end of regulation for 234 combined points before going to OT.  This total of 237.5 has been set too high for the rematch as this figures to be another low-scoring, defensive battle.

The Rockets really profile as an UNDER team ranking 28th in pace and 5th in defensive rating.  The Nuggets are in no hurry either ranking 21st in pace.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Thunder/Timberwolves NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +7.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are fully healthy tonight with Anthony Edwards making his return to action from a 3-game absence.  The Timberwolves actually managed to win two of their last three games without him including an upset road win at Golden State.  He was last seen hanging 40 points on the Suns.

It's no surprise Edwards returns for this game against Oklahoma City as he and the Timberwolves want revenge on the Thunder after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them last season.  They fell short in a 113-105 road loss as 11-point dogs in their first shot at revenge on November 26th.  But now they get the Thunder at home for the first time this season, and given how motivated they'll be getting 7.5 points with them at home is a tremendous value.

That's especially the case given the favorable spot for the Timberwolves.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 11 days.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-101 home win over the Clippers last night.  They also participated in the NBA Cup in Las Vegas prior and are still recovering from that.  The spot really favors Minnesota tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Hawks OVER 239.5

The Atlanta Hawks have been trending OVER without Trae Young anyway, so I'm not that concerned that he will sit tonight.  Atlanta is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games overall finishing with 237 or more combined points in eight of their last 10 games, nine of which have been without Young.  They play fast with or without Young and still have plenty of offensive talent with Johnson and Alexander-Walker really taking their games to the next level this season.

The Spurs are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 237 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They are playing more small ball and they are fully healthy now with Victor Wembenyama on a minutes restriction.  I actually like San Antonio OVERS more when he doesn't play, and there's a chance he sits tonight on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Spurs and Hawks.  They have combined for at least 230 points in nine of those 10 meetings, and 244 or more in five of their last six.  That includes a 135-126 home win by the Spurs in their first meeting this season on November 20th for 261 combined points.  This total is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers +6

The Knicks were in a letdown spot and I faded them successfully with the Pacers +5 last night.  The Knicks managed to win by 1 thanks to a Jalen Brunson 3-pointer.  But the spot is even worse for the Knicks tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and still reveling in accolades from winning the NBA Cup.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers are laying in wait after having the last four days off.  They will be max motivated to dethrone the NBA Cup champs, and they are about as healthy as they have been all season coming into this one, so I like their chances.

Tyrese Maxey (31.5 PPG, 7.2 APG) makes his return from a two-game absence due to illness.  He is the one player they cannot afford to be without.  Joel Embiid is out, but they've actually been better without him this season.  Paul George, VJ Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes and Jared McCain are all healthy and playing well.  The spot is too for for the 76ers and too poor for the Knicks to pass up tonight.  Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +7

The Utah Jazz can beat anyone at home.  They are 7-7 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  Only four times in 14 home games have they lost by more than 7 points, and two of those came against the best team in the NBA in the THunder.  The others came against Atlanta by 10 and Houston.

But the Jazz also upset Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Indiana and the Clippers at home.  And they can hang with the Lakers at home, which they have proven once already this season in a 108-106 loss as 9-point dogs on November 23rd.  Utah is now 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with the Lakers with losses by 1 and 2 points, and an upset win by 12 as 9-point dogs.

This isn't the best version of the Lakers they will be facing Thursday night, either.  The Lakers will be without two starters and two of their best players in Austin Reaves (27.8 PPG, 6.7 APG, 5.8 RPG) and De'Andre Ayton (15.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG).  The Lakers have no business being 7-point road favorites without these two.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +10

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall to be one of the best covering teams in the NBA over the last month.  They have gotten healthy and they are proving they have the offense to play with almost anyone.

I think this is a massive hangover spot for the Houston Rockets.  They put a lot into their last game against the Denver Nuggets but lost 128-125 (OT).  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice as they gave up a FT on a dead ball foul in the final seconds to go to OT.

The last three road games for the Rockets have been concerning as they have lout outright as favorites in all three.  They lost that game as 1-point favorites at Denver, they lost 122-109 as 6.5-point favorites at Dallas and lost 133-125 as 11-point favorites at Utah.  Asking them to win by 11-plus points to beat us tonight is asking too much.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in seven of those 10 games.  The Pelicans rank 12th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 home games going for 241 or more combined points in seven of their last eight home games.  This total of 234 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home.

The Rockets actually rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive rating and can basically name their number against the Pelicans tonight.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 232 or more combined points in four of those five meetings, and 239 or more in three of the last four.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +14.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  After upsetting both the Lakers in the quarterfinals and the Thunder in the semifinals of the NBA Cup, the Spurs blew a 4th quarter lead and fell short in the championship game in a 124-113 loss to the New York Knicks in Las Vegas.

The Spurs will be flat as a pancake tonight in their first game back from that trip to Las Vegas which could only have been a distraction.  They could care less about beating Washington, and they would need to be fully focused to win this game by 15 or more points, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

Washington is coming off two impressive games in a row.  The Wizards blew a late lead in a 130-126 home loss to Cleveland as 15.5-point dogs, then bounced back with a 108-89 road win at Indiana as 10-point dogs.  There's reason to believe they will keep playing solid basketball tonight, not the least of which is the fact that they are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off.

But the biggest reason to be excited about the Wizards is the healthy return of their best player in C Alex Sarr (19.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG) to the lineup for this one.  Sarr last played on November 28th.  They have been much more competitive with him in the lineup than without him.  Sarr, McColum (18.9 PPG, 40.3% 3-pointers), George (14.9 PPG, 43.9% 3-pointers) and Johnson (11.2 PPG, 39.8% 3-pointers) give the Wizards a solid nucleus when healthy.  Bub Carrington (8.8 PPG, 4.4 APG) and Marvin Bagley (9.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) are also key contributors who are healthy right now.  Bet the Wizards Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the New York Knicks.  They just won their first trophy of any kind since 1973 by taking down the NBA Cup with a comeback win over the San Antonio Spurs in Las Vegas.  You can only imagine the kind of celebrating they did Tuesday night in Vegas, and now they have to travel to Indiana two days later still hungover.

It looks as if head coach Mike Brown is likely to rest almost everyone for this game.  Towns (22.1 PPG, 11.8 RPG), Anunoby (16.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and Hart (12.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.9 APG) have all been downgraded to questionable for this game.  Getting downgraded to questionable is more like doubtful, while being upgraded to questionable is almost like probable.

The Pacers have quietly gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They would love nothing more than to beat the NBA Cup champs, and they will be inspired to do so.  Their task gets much easier with all of these guys out for the Knicks as McBride and Shamet are both out already, so they will likely be without 6 key contributors as Mitchell Robinson is downgraded to questionable as well.  This version of the Pacers is better than the version of the Knicks that will be on the court for this one.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Bulls OVER 241.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  The face the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, who rank 9th in pace and 10th in offensive rating and should hang a big number on the Bulls tonight.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Bulls and Cavaliers with 248 or more combined points in all four meetings.  They have combined for 250, 248, 256 and 270 points in those four meetings.  This total of 241.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Knicks NBA Cup Championship No-Brainer on San Antonio +3

The San Antonio Spurs are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA and they have proven that by making the NBA Cup Championship Game.  They aren't going to just be happy with getting this close and not getting over the hump, and I expect this young, hungry team to finish the deal tonight.

The Spurs are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall with 12 of those games played without Victor Wemenyama.  Well, Wembenyama returned against Oklahoma City and scored 22 points in less than 21 minutes of action.  He will be on a minutes limit again tonight, but should see a few more minutes.

What I really like about the Spurs is that Wembenyama being out allowed other players to step up, and now the Spurs are fully healthy for the first time all season.  De'Aaron Fox has shouldered the load, but he has gotten plenty of help from Stephon Castle and company.  Castle has 52 points in these two NBA Cup games and is thriving.

While the Spurs had to go on the road and beat the Lakers 132-119 as 7-point dogs and upset the best team in the NBA in the Thunder as 10-point dogs to get here, the New York Knicks have had a much easier path.  In fact, they have played one of the easiest schedules possible during their 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS run that has them way overvalued.

They have faced the Hornets twice, the Nets, the Magic without Franz Wagner twice, the Raptors without RJ Barrett twice, the Bucks and the Jazz for their nine wins.  They lost to the best team in the Celtics.  The Knicks benefited from the Raptors being without both Barrett and a late scratch to Immanuel Quickley in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, which are their two best players.  And in the semifinals, they didn't have to face Franz Wagner, plus Jalen Suggs got hurt after a blistering start to the game.

This is where the Knicks' luck runs out tonight having to face a fully healthy Spurs team that I believe is better than the Knicks in their current state.  The Knicks are without two key role players in Miles McBride and Landry Shamet, which really hurts their shooting and their bench play.  They have a great starting 5, but the Spurs will have the advantage any time they sub them out.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Jazz OVER 239.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  The Jazz are 15-9 OVER in all games this season averaging 243.9 combined points per game.  It ramps up with the Jazz controlling the pace at home, where they are 9-4 OVER and averaging 252.3 combined points per game with their opponents.

The Dallas Mavericks have sneakily transformed into an OVER team over the last few weeks.  They rank 7th in pace this season so they have made a point of playing faster, it's just that now they can implement it better with the addition of PG Ryan Nembhard, who has been one of the breakout players in the NBA.

What also makes the Mavericks more of an OVER team right now is because they have to play more small ball without Derrick Lively and Daniel Gafford.  The Mavericks are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 243 or more combined points three times.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Heat OVER 234.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season playing much faster than anyone else.  This total of 234.5 is very low for a game involving the Heat, especially at home where they control pace.  Miami and its opponents are combining for 241 points per game at home this season.

The Heat have had the last five days off and needed this break as they were starting to wear down playing at such a frenetic pace.  Now I think they will feel like they have unlimited energy and will ramp up the pace even more in their return to action tonight.

The Raptors also needed the break and have had the last five days off as well.  That allowed Immanuel Quickley (16.5 PPG) to get healthy, and now he'll be back in the lineup and the Raptors are much more potent with him than without him.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Raptors and Heat.  This will be their first meeting of the season, so they are unfamiliar with one another which benefits the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Warriors/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pelicans rank 3rd in pace and 22nd in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 143-120 road loss to the Pelicans and 263 combined points.  They have gone for at least 232 combined points in five of their last six games overall.

The Warriors just got Steph Curry back in the lineup last time out and lost 127-120 at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves for 247 combined points.  Their offense is so much better with Curry in the lineup, especially now that Pat Spencer has emerged for a playmaker for them to make life a little easier on Curry.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Blazers and Warriors with 244 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  They have combined for 258 and 250 points in their first two meetings this season.  This total of 234.5 is too short given the current state of both teams and the head-to-head history.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pelicans/Bulls OVER 243.5

The Pelicans are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in seven of those nine games.

The Pelicans are coming off a 135-132 home loss to the Spurs for 267 combined points and a 143-120 home win over the Blazers for 263 combined points.  Rookie Derik Queen had his first triple-double with 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists against San Antonio.  Jordan Poole is now back, and Zion Williamson may return tonight which are two OVER players who are great on offense and terrible on defense.  The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating this season.

Now the Pelicans take on another dead nuts OVER team in the Chicago Bulls, who rank 2nd in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  The Bulls are coming off a 129-126 road win at Charlotte for 255 combined points.  That's a Charlotte team that was without both LaMelo Ball and Collin Sexton, two of their best guards.

This will be a rematch from a 143-130 home win by the Pelicans over the Bulls on November 24th for 273 combined points.  Seven Chicago players scored in double-figures, and eight New Orleans players scored in double figures.  It will be more of the same today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Atlanta Hawks after a 142-115 road loss to one of the best teams in the NBA in the Detroit Pistons on Friday.  They had the previous five days off and were probably a little rusty.  I think we get their best effort here back at home tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia 76ers after a 115-105 home win over the Indiana Pacers as 5-point closing favorites.  They trailed 102-100 before going on a 15-3 run in the final minutes in a misleading final.  I know because I had the Pacers +7.5 and it was a terrible beat.  But I'll get my money back here by fading them again.

The 76ers will be without their best player in Tyrese Maxey (31.5 PPG, 7.2 APG).  They are without Kelly Oubre (16.8 PPG), and Joel Embiid (20.3 PPG) is questionable.  Maxey had 44 points and 9 assists in a 142-134 (OT) home loss to the Hawks in their first meeting this season.

The Hawks have owned the 76ers going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  It will be more of the same today without Maxey.  Bet the Hawks Sunday.

15* Spurs/Thunder NBA Cup ANNIHILATOR on OVER 224.5

The Spurs are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 237 or more combined points in six of those seven games, and 226 or more in all seven.  They just went for 251 combined points with the Lakers in the NBA Cup quarterfinals.  This total of 224.5 is too short for a game involving the Spurs right now.

The Thunder are rolling offensively scoring at least 123 points in six consecutive games while going 5-1 OVER in those six games with 232 or more combined points in all six.  This total of 224.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Thunder right now as well.  Both offenses should stay hot enough to get over this low total tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Knicks/Magic NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 224

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will already be the 4th meeting of the season between the Magic and Knicks.  That includes a 106-100 win by the Knicks in the most recent meeting on December 7th less than a week ago for just 206 combined points.

It should be another low-scoring, defensive battle in the 4th meeting today.  This is a 2:30 EST tipoff in Las Vegas and in an unfamiliar shooting background at T-Mobile Arena.  We've seen teams struggle with it in the past as unders have been a great bet in these NBA Cup game, where defensive intensity is high when it's win or go home.

Injuries have taken away from the firepower of both offenses in this one.  The Magic will be without Franz Wagner (22.7 PPG), while the Knicks will be without Miles McBride (11.6 PPG) and Landy Shamet (9.3 PPG).  Both teams prefer to play at slower paces, and this one will likely be played at even more of a snail's pace with what's at stake.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +7.5

The Indiana Pacers have gotten healthier and are playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  The Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming off a 15-point road win at Chicago followed by an 11-point home win over the Kings.  They've had the last three days off and are primed for another big effort tonight on the road against the Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers have also gotten healthier but are just 6-6 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Their six wins came against some the worst teams in the NBA by 2 over the Clippers at home, in OT at Milwaukee without Giannis, again at Milwaukee without Giannis, by 1 over the Warriors at home without Curry and wins over the Nets and Wizards, arguably the two worst teams in the East.

The 76ers have suffered home losses to the Raptors by 9, the Heat by 10, the Magic by 41 and the Hawks by 8 during this stretch.  They should not be laying 7.5 points to the Pacers tonight, especially with Tyrese Maxey getting downgraded to questionable today with an illness.  They likely won't cover whether or not he goes, but if he doesn't go this line will crash.  

The Pacers own the 76ers, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with their lone loss coming in OT.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* Nuggets/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 238.5

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  They haven't missed a beat offensively without him as they rank 1st in offensive rating this season largely due to the playmaking of Nikola Jokic.  They've had to go even more small ball without Gordon and the result has been a string of high-scoring games.

Indeed, the Nuggets are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 240 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  They have gone for 240 or more combined points in 10 of their last 13 games as well.  This total of 238.5 is too short for a game involving the Nuggets right now.

The Kings rank 26th in defensive rating this season and have basically just quit playing defense.  But they have been able to keep up with the Nuggets in shootouts with the OVER going 3-1 in the last four meetings with 240 or more combined points in three of those four meetings.  That includes their 128-123 win in Denver on November 22nd for 251 combined points in their last meeting.  It should be another shootout tonight in Sacramento.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Blazers/Pelicans OVER 237.5

The Pelicans are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in six of those eight games.  The Pelicans have been OVER machines at home, going 8-1 OVER in their last nine home games.

The Pelicans are coming off a 135-132 home loss to the Spurs for 267 combined points.  Rookie Derik Queen had his first triple-double with 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists.  His playmaking ability as their lone big man makes them a very good offensive team.  Trey Murphy had 32 points in the loss.  There's a chance to Pelicans get Jordan Poole back tonight for even more offensive firepower.  But the Pelicans rank 29th in defensive rating this season and that's just not fixable at this point.

The Blazers profile as a dead nuts OVER team as well ranking 3rd in pace and 20th in defensive rating.  They are 15-9 OVER in all games this season.  They will be without C Donovan Clingan and his backup Robert Williams is questionable as well.  The Blazers will likely go small ball tonight to match up with the Pelicans.

This is a rematch from a 125-117 home win by the Pelicans on November 12th for 242 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Sharpe had 35 points and Advija 32 points in that first meeting, and they should have monster games again.  Queen had 26 points, Murphy 22 and Bey 25 in that first meeting.  Neither team shot lights out with the Pelicans at 33% from 3 and the Blazers 35% from 3.  So there is room for improvement in that department and an even higher-scoring game in the rematch.  This total of 237.5 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Spurs/Lakers NBA Cup No-Brainer on San Antonio +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games without Victor Wembenyama.  That includes their 139-136 win as 7-point road dogs at Denver that got them into the NBA Cup quarterfinals.

They did most of that damage even without Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper.  Well, both Castle and Harper are back now, and the Spurs have plenty of ammo to give the Lakers a run for their money tonight on the road.

The teams the Spurs struggle with right now without Wembenyama would be teams with dominant big men that can take advantage of their lack of rim protection.  The Lakers don't possess that with only De'Andre Ayton the only threat, but he is more of an afterthought with James, Doncic and Reaves running the show.

These teams profile very similarly with elite guard play, very good offense and a lack of defense.  I think the Spurs can hang with the Lakers in a shootout tonight in a game that is decided on the final few possessions.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* Suns/Thunder NBA Cup ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 226.5

The NBA Cup and the NBA Playoffs are where teams actually try hard on defense.  The books opened this total at a number that is in line with what it would be for any regular season game.  But this isn't just any regular season game, teams have to win to advance and there's real money on the line.

I was on both UNDERS last night and both came through with ease.  Orlando beat Miami 117-108 for 225 combined points with a 235-point closing total.  New York beat Toronto 117-101 for 218 combined points and a 226.5-point closing total.

These teams just squared off on November 28th in Oklahoma City in the final game of NBA Cup Group Play.  That total was set at 223, and this total has been moved up to 226.5 for the rematch after a shootout broke out in that first meeting in a 123-119 victory for the Thunder.  The Suns kept fighting late into the 4th quarter because they needed to get in on point differential.

I think this game will play out much differently.  The Thunder get back both Lu Dort and Alex Caruso for this one, which are two of their best defenders but neither is great on the offensive end.  They won't have Isaiah Joe, arguably their best shooter.  The Thunder rank 1st in defensive rating by 6.6 points per game.  Nothing will come easy for the Suns tonight, who may be without Devin Booker again.  I like the UNDER whether or not he plays.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  These teams just played on November 28th.  They have both had plenty of time to prepare to stop one another in the rematch.  The Thunder have had the last two days off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days here.  The Suns will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Knicks/Raptors NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 231.5

I released this total on Monday and it has since been bet down.  I would still play it as a 20* at 225 or higher, and a 15* at anything less than that.

The NBA Cup and the NBA Playoffs are where teams actually try hard on defense.  The books opened this total at a number that is in line with what it would be for any regular season game.  But this isn't just any regular season game, teams have to win to advance and there's real money on the line.

Injuries are a big reason I'm on the UNDER.  The Raptors have been lost on offense without RJ Barrett (19.4 PPG).  They have been held to 97 points or fewer in three of their last seven games.  Now Immanuel Quickley (16.5 PPG, 6.2 APG) was downgraded to questionable with an illness today.  Backup PG Jamal Shead (5.8 PPG) is questionable as well.

The Knicks will be without Miles McBride (11.6 PPG) and Landry Shamet (9.3 PPG), plus Karl-Anthony Towns (22.5 PPG) missed last game and is questionable with a calf injury.  I have to think he'll be on a minutes limit at the very least as teams have been very cautious with these calf injuries.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Knicks just beat the Raptors 116-94 on November 30th for 210 combined points.  Now they meet again here nine days later and the total has actually been set higher at 231.5 than it was in that first meeting (229.5).  There's clearly value on the UNDER given the injuries and the familiarity.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Cup Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Miami Heat PK

The loss of Franz Wagner (22.7 PPG) is a huge blow to the Magic.  They are much easier to defend without him.  They have also been playing much slower since Paulo Blanchero returned from injury, and they have been worse with him than without him.  Jalen Suggs (14.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) is also dealing with a knee injury that he will be playing through.

The Heat are fully healthy for this game and want revenge on the Magic after two losses in Orlando already this season by a combined 5 points.  That includes their 106-105 loss in Orlando on December 5th just four days ago.  The ultimate revenge would be to win this NBA Cup Game, and I like their chances given the injury advantage.

Wagner had 24 points in the first meeting and 32 points in the second meeting with the Heat.  Losing all that production will be too tough for the Magic to overcome tonight.  The Heat have had the last two days off while the Magic just played in New York on Sunday in the game Wagner got hurt.  The rest, health, and motivational advantages have me on Miami in this one.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

20* Heat/Magic NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 240.5

I released this total on Sunday when I found out Franz Wagner was injured for the Magic.  I was already going to be on the UNDER either way, but this total has been bet down since as I expected.  I would still play it as a 20* at 235 or higher, and a 15* at anything less than that.

The NBA Cup and the NBA Playoffs are where teams actually try hard on defense.  The books opened this total at a number that is in line with what it would be for any regular season game.  But this isn't just any regular season game, teams have to win to advance and there's real money on the line.

The loss of Wagner (22.7 PPG) is a huge blow to the Magic.  They are much easier to defend without him.  They have also been playing much slower since Paulo Blanchero returned from injury, and they have been worse with him than without him.  Jalen Suggs (14.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) is also dealing with a knee injury that he will be playing through.

The Heat are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall and have been playing a little slower here of late as it was going to be tough to keep up that pace all season.  The Magic want to play slower tonight, and they will likely control the tempo playing at home.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will actually be the rd meeting of the season already between Miami and Orlando.  These teams just played on December 5th in Orlando with the Magic winning 106-105 for just 211 combined points.  This total cannot be set this high in the rematch here just four days later with defensive intensity turned up to the max.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  They have their NBA Cup quarterfinal game on deck against the Lakers Wednesday.  They will be overlooking the Pelicans and looking ahead to the Lakers and will not put their best foot forward tonight.  That will make it very difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

The Pelicans continue to play hard despite a tough season to this point.  They have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA that have poor records but show up every night.

The Pelicans want revenge from a pair of close losses to the Spurs already this season by 4 in OT at home and by 7 on the road.  Victor Wembenyama played in both of those games for the Spurs.  Now they won't have him, and the Pelicans should easily stay within this inflated number tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pelicans OVER 236.5

The Spurs are having to play more small ball without Victor Wembenyama.  The result has been a 4-1 OVER run with 247, 245, 237 and 273 combined points in the four OVERS.  I question their defensive intensity for this game with an NBA Cup game on deck Wednesday.

The Pelicans are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in five of those seven games.  The Pelicans have been OVER machines at home, going 7-1 OVER in their last eight home games.

The Spurs beat the Pelicans 126-119 at home for 245 combined points in their last meeting on November 8th.  Zion Williams didn't play in that game either.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Lakers/76ers NBA No-Brainer on OVER 232.5

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team going 16-6 OVER in all games this season.  They get Luka Doncic back and should be at full strength with the exception of Marcus Smart, who is one of their best defenders but they don't miss anything with him on offense.

The 76ers will be about as healthy as they have been all season tonight.  They will have Paul George and Joel Embiid available today to go along with Maxey, Edgecombe and Grimes.  They are primed for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season with all of these guys available.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Mavs OVER 223

The Mavericks scored 120.5 points per game in their four games prior to facing the top defensive team in the NBA in the Thunder last night in a 132-111 loss.  They are finding some great chemistry with Flagg, Nembhard and Davis in the lineup.  Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24, 22 and 16 points in his last four games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat. 

Because of the blowout nature of that loss to the Thunder, no starter even played 30 minutes for the Mavericks.  They should still be very fresh tonight and ready to run.  Anthony Davis has said he will play even though it's the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They will likely still be without Lively II and Gafford, their two big men who are key for them defensively.  They have had to go more small ball without them which is why they are 4-1 OVER in their last five games with 224 or more combined points in all five.

The Rockets are coming off a 117-98 home win over the Suns last night.  The blowout nature of that win also allowed the Rockets to rest their starters in the 4th.  It was a disastrous shooting game for the Suns who were without Devin Booker.  The Suns shot 39% from the floor and 5-of-36 (14%) from 3-point range which kept it under the total.

Steven Adams has already been ruled out for this game on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The Rockets will have to go more small ball tonight, which will favor the OVER.  They could also get Alperun Sengun back from an illness that kept him out last night.  The Rockets rank 4th in offensive rating this season.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace and will control the tempo at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Mavs/Thunder NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

The Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to injuries to three of their best defenders in Dort, Caruso and Hartenstein.  The Thunder are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 242 combined points with Phoenix, 238 with Portland and 236 with the Warriors, who were without Stephen Curry.  They don't miss a beat offensively without those three and are actually better on that end, but they don't defend nearly as well.

The Mavericks have scored 120.5 points per game in their last four games and are finding some great chemistry with Flagg, Nembhard and Davis in the lineup.  Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists last game against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists the game prior against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24 and 22 points in his last three games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat in his last two games.  

This trio is good enough to keep the Mavericks competitive for four quarters tonight as they keep up with the Thunder in a shootout.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace this season as they have had a change in philosophy to play much faster.  They are also without their two big men in Lively II and Gafford, which makes them play more small ball which favors the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +15.5

There has been a lot of talk recently about the Oklahoma City Thunder and possibly setting the NBA record for most wins in a season after a 21-1 start.  With that hype and attention comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very tough to live up to.

We have seen that play out recently as the Thunder are 1-3 ATS in their last four games needing a late run to win by 12 as 11-point favorites against the Warriors without Curry last time out in their lone cover.  They won by 8 over Minnesota as 10.5-point favorites, by 4 over Phoenix as 14.5-point favorites and by 8 over Portland as 11.5-point favorites.  So they have four straight wins by 12 points or fewer.

A big reason the Thunder are struggling to get margin is also due to injuries to three very underrated players in Hartenstein, Dort and Caruso.  Those are three of their best defenders especially the latter two, and they just aren't guarding teams as well.

The Mavericks have proven just how competitive they can be when Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg and Ryan Nembhard are all healthy and playing at the same time.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with a 4-point loss at Miami, a 10-point loss at LA Lakers, a upset win as 9-point dogs at LA Clippers, a upset win by 10 as 11-point dogs at Denver and a upset win by 10 as 4.5-point home dogs to Miami.

Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists last game against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists the game prior against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24 and 22 points in his last three games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat in his last two games.  This trio is good enough to keep the Mavericks competitive for four quarters tonight.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks ML +105

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  Giannis went out after 3 minutes with another calf injury in their last game, and the Bucks still went on to upset the Pistons 113-109.  They are better equipped to handle playing without Giannis right now than they were earlier.

Kevin Porter Jr. recently returned from injury and is an elite scorer.  He had 26 points against the Pistons and 30 the game prior.  Ryan Rollins has been a pleasant surprise and is one of the most improved players in the NBA.  Myles Turner is one of the best big man in the game, AJ Green is a sharp shooter, and the Bucks still have Kuzma and Portis coming off the bench to provide scoring.

The spot is a terrible one for the 76ers.  They hit the game-winner with 0.6 seconds left last night to beat the short-handed Warriors 99-98, a Warriors team that was playing without Curry and Butler while Green only played 9 minutes before going out with injury.  The fact that they still struggled to win that game says a lot.

Now the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be without Embiid, Oubre and possibly George and others.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.  The Bucks also want revenge from a 123-114 (OT) home loss to the 76ers on November 20th without Giannis.  The Bucks are still 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the 76ers.  Bet the Bucks on the Money Line Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Knicks OVER 238.5

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 26th in defensive rating.  The Knicks rank 4th in offensive rating and just 15th in defensive rating.  The Knicks are an elite offensive team this season under new head coach Mike Brown, but they have slipped a lot defensively.

The Jazz are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in eight of those 11 games.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games on the 2nd of a back-to-back going for 280 combined points with Indiana at the end of regulation, 251 points with the Warriors and 258 points with the Rockets.  They tend to not miss a beat offensively in these situations and relax even more on defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT Nuggets/Hawks OVER 237.5

The Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  The Nuggets rank 1st in the entire NBA in offensive rating, but their defense has taken a major hit.  The Nuggets are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 240 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  They have scored at least 121 points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  This total of 237.5 is very short for a game involving Denver right now.

Atlanta got good news today with both Jalen Johnson (23.2 PPG) and Kristaps Porzingis (18.7 PPG) participating in shootaround, meaning both are likely to return from injury.  They have missed them playing a pair of low-scoring games in a row in losses to the Clippers and Pistons.  But with them likely back, the Hawks transform into much more of an OVER team with what those two bring to the table offensively.

The Hawks went 8-2 OVER in their previous 10 games in which Johnson played almost all of them, and Porzingis many of them.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Hawks and Nuggets finishing with 251 or more combined points in each of their last four.  This total of 237.5 is very low given the head-to-head history as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Magic OVER 239.5

The Magic are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 254, 267, 247 and 245 combined points in four of their last six games.  Suggs, Wagner and Bane have been playing elite basketball on the offensive end, and now Banchero is back tonight to make the Magic one of the most potent offensive teams in the NBA.

The Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season.  They get leading scorer Norman Powell (25.0 PPG, 45.8% 3-pointers) back from injury tonight and their offense is just so much more potent with him in the lineup.  They missed him last game shooting just 40% from the floor and 11-of-37 (30%) from 3 in a loss at Dallas.

The Magic beat the Heat 125-121 for 246 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Powell had 28 points to lead the way for the Heat.  Wagner (24), Banchero (24), Bane (23) and Suggs (14) all had solid games for the Magic.  Neither team shot lights out with the Heat at 48% overall and 34% from 3 and the Magic at 47% overall and 40% from 3.  There's actually room for more in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +12

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They want revenge from a 149-142 (OT) home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday.  They get their shot at revenge here two days later and the line is basically the same as they were 12.5-point dogs in the first meeting.

This line hasn't been adjusted enough down for the fact that the Pelicans will be the much more motivated team in the rematch.  The Timberwolves will likely just be going through the motions for this one.  They have just one win by more than 11 points in their last seven games, going 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS in those seven games.  The Pelicans have quietly gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Pelicans OVER 232.5

The Pelicans are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall and coming off 254 combined points with the Lakers and 291 with the Timberwolves, with 258 at the end of regulation.  New Orleans is 6-1 OVER in its last seven home games finishing with 235 or more combined points in five of their last six home games.  The Pelicans rank 29th in defensive rating this season.

The Timberwolves have gone OVER the total in their last threegames finishing with 237 combined points with San Antonio, 234 with Boston and 258 at the end of regulation with the Pelicans.  They have improved drastically on offense ranking 6th in offensive rating this season, largely due to bringing Mike Conley off the bench instead of starting him.  They play a lot faster without him running the offense.

This will be a rematch from Tuesday when the Timberwolves beat the Pelicans 149-142 (OT) in a game that was at 258 combined points at the end of regulation.  We have a lot of room to spare here in the rematch with this OVER 232.5.  

The Pelicans have to play more small ball without Missi and Zion, so they are basically playing four guards around electric rookie Derick Queen.  He had 21 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists in that first meeting as four starters scored at least 21 points for the Pelicans.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are 8-0 SU in their last eight home games.  It will be an electric atmosphere in Toronto tonight with the Los Angeles Lakers coming to town.  I fully expect the Raptors to win and cover tonight for their 9th consecutive home win.

The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic (35.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 8.9 APG) tonight due to personal reasons.  LeBron James is far from 100%, and the Lakers are going to be lost without Doncic tonight.  He is worth more to the spread for them than is being factored into this line.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Mavericks OVER 239.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They went for 263 combined points with the Clippers and 273 with the Pistons in their last two games.  They have gone for 239 or more combined points in five of their last six road games.

The Mavericks have changed their philosophy to play faster this season just like the Heat.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace and have two young guards playing well in Flagg and Nembhard.  They just got Anthony Davis back, and both games with Davis in the lineup were very high-scoring as they combined for 248 points with the Lakers and 252 with the Nuggets.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Rockets OVER 230.5

The Kings rank 25th in defensive rating this season and will be up against a Houston Rockets team that ranks 2nd in offensive rating behind only the Nuggets.  It's safe to say the Rockets are going to hang a big number on the Kings, who will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout in this one.

The Rockets are 11-7 OVER in all games this season averaging 233 combined points with their opponents.  The Kings and their opponents are averaging 237.7 combined points on the road this season.  The Kings and Rockets have combined for at least 230 points in 11 of their last 15 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pistons/Bucks OVER 229.5

The Bucks are an OVER team as long as Giannis is healthy and on the court.  He is healthy right now, and Kevin Porter Jr. recently returned to the lineup to give them even more scoring punch.  Those two combined for 56 points in a 129-126 loss at Washington in their last game for 255 combined points.

The Detroit Pistons are fully healthy for the first time all season and a deadly offensive team when that's the case.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  The Pistons and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in seven of their last nine games overall, so this total of 230.5 is pretty short for a game involving them right now.

What really stands out is the high-scoring head-to-head history between the Pistons and Bucks as neither team came stop one another.  Indeed, the OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings with 235 or more combined points in all 11 meetings.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Pacers OVER 236.5

The Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  The Nuggets rank 1st in the entire NBA in offensive rating, but their defense has taken a major hit.  The Nuggets are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 240 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They have scored at least 121 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.

The Pacers rank 11th in pace and are still trying to play faster even without Tyrese Haliburton.  They are coming off a 135-119 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers for 254 combined points.  You can just imagine what this Denver offense is going to do to them tonight, and they will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +5.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming to the Nuggets.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four road games during this stretch.  They are actually playing better without JA Morant.

Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. have been dominant inside for the Grizzlies.  And they will have a huge advantage with those two in the paint over the Spurs, who remain without Victor Wembenyama and Stephon Castle.  They are playing Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk big minutes because of it, and that is the worst big man combo in the NBA.

I also think the Spurs in a letdown spot of the schedule.  They miraculously pulled off the 139-136 win in Denver against the short-handed Nuggets to clinch their spot in the NBA Cup quarterfinals.  They promptly lost at Minnesota 125-112 their next time out, and they won't be motivated to beat the Grizzlies tonight, either.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be dealing with the distractions of missing Thanksgiving on the highway and trying to make up for it back home.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall and coming off 254 combined points with the Lakers.  New Orleans is 5-1 OVER in its last six home games finishing with 235 or more combined points in four of their last five home games.  The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating this season.

The Timberwolves have gone OVER the total in their last two games finishing with 237 combined points with San Antonio and 234 with Boston.  They have improved drastically on offense ranking 8th in offensive rating this season, largely due to bringing Mike Conley off the bench instead of starting him.  They play a lot faster without him running the offense.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Pelicans and Timberwolves.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Suns/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 13-6 OVER in all games this season, including 4-1 OVER in their last five games combining for 248 or more points in four of those five.  The only game that went under was a home-and-home situation against the Jazz in the 2nd meeting with familiarity leading to it.

The Lakers are a perfect 9-0 OVER at home this season finishing with 228 or more combined points in all nine home games, and 234 or more combined points in each of their last six home games.

The Suns profile as more of an OVER team in their current state.  They just got Grayson Allen back in the lineup and they have been without his scoring for seven games.  Allen takes a lot of pressure off Devin Booker to provide the offense.  Mark Williams is healthy and great on the offensive end as well.

The Suns are 2-0 OVER in their last two games combining for 242 points with the Thunder and 242 points with the Nuggets.  It will be more of the same tonight in a shootout with the Lakers.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Mavs/Nuggets OVER 233

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  They are all offense and no defense right now.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall going for 240 or more combined points in all four games.

Nikola Jokic has been dominant again this season leading the Nuggets to ranking 1st place in offensive rating, scoring 123.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Nuggets have now scored 122 or more points in nine of their last 10 and 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They are a wagon on offense this season.

The Mavericks have turned into more of an OVER team this season ranking 6th in pace as Jason Kidd has embraced playing with more pace.  The injury report also makes the Mavs more of an OVER team right now playing without two big men in Lively II and Gafford, which makes them play more small ball.  Anthony Davis is back healthy and will form a great 1-2 punch with Cooper Flagg on the offensive end when he's in the lineup.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Magic OVER 239

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season playing as fast as possible.  In their last two meetings with the Magic last season they combined for 252 and 248 points.

The Magic have transformed into a dead nuts OVER team without Paulo Banchero.  They have to play more small ball and they play a lot faster while also sharing the ball more.  The Magic are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 230 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They went for 247 combined points with Philadelphia, 267 with Boston and 254 with New York in three of their last four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -6

The Miami Heat are 13-7 SU & 12-8 ATS this season.  They are as healthy as they have been all year right now and primed for a big effort tonight hosting the Los Angeles Clippers, who are 5-15 SU & 5-15 ATS.  The Clippers have been the most disappointing team in the NBA, and they are not healthy at all right now.

The Heat are without Beal, Jones Jr. and Bogdanovic.  They are coming off consecutive upset home losses to two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Mavericks and Grizzlies, who were both short-handed when they beat them as well.  They have now lost four straight with the other two being blowout road losses to the Lakers by 17 and Cavs by 15.  Another blowout road loss will be their fate tonight.  Bet the Heat Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets/Jazz OVER 232

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating. The Jazz are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  

The Jazz are 8-2 OVER in their 10 home games scoring 128.4 points per game and allowing 127.6 points per game, combining to average 256 points per game.  This total of 232 is very short for a Utah home game.

That's especially the case when you consider the Rockets will be getting back leading scorer Kevin Durant (24.6 PPG) from a 2-game absence due to a family matter today.  The Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating scoring 122 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets are without Finney-Smith, Eason and could be without Adams who is questionable, and those are three of their best defenders.  It means more playing time for scorers in Sheppard and Holiday.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Rockets and Jazz finishing with 231 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings, including 239 or more in six of them.  This is also a very low total for this matchup.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3.5

This is a terrible spot for the Detroit Pistons.  They had their 13-game winning streak snapped with a 3-point loss at Boston.  Then last night they had their hopes of winning the NBA Cup come to a painful end with a 3-point home loss to the Orlando Magic.  

I don't expect the Pistons to show up at all tonight, and there's a chance they rest some guys playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 5th different city in 8 days.  Cade Cunningham played 40 minutes last night and is a real candidate to sit out.  Four of five starters played at least 30 minutes.

The Heat are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season with Tyler Herro (26.5 PPG) returning for the last two games and forming chemistry with his new teammates in this new up-tempo scheme that fits him well.  The Heat are fully healthy now with Powell and Wiggins back and only Jacquez listed as questionable.  He has played in all 19 games this season despite popping up on the injury report multiple times so he is likely to go.

Miami playing at the fastest-pace in the entire NBA will certainly test these tired Detroit legs.  This is one of my favorite spots of the entire season so far, and I fully expect the Heat to win in a blowout.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Jazz OVER 242

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  The Kings also profile as an OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  This figures to be one of the biggest shootouts of the season tonight especially with both teams playing relaxed basketball after already being eliminated from advancing in the NBA Cup.

The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 251 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The Jazz are 7-2 OVER in their nine home games scoring 128.4 points per game and allowing 128.6 points per game, combining to average 257 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -3

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They finally had their 13-game winning streak come to an end with a 117-114 loss in Boston.  But it will take zero effort for them to refocus here considering this is a must-win for them if they want to advance in the NBA Cup.

It's not a must-win game for Orlando, although they'd rather win this game than rely on point differential to advance.  But the Magic are in great position from a point differential perspective at +61 during their 3-0 start.  So they can still lose this game and advance on point differential as as none of the contenders are within 28 points of them.  In the back of their minds they know they are advancing either way.

The Pistons are 7-1 at home this season while the Magic are just 4-5 on the road.  The Pistons beat the Magic 135-116 in their last home meeting on October 29th earlier this season.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -8.5

The New York Knicks (2-1) are max motivated tonight.  They need to win to capture Group C, otherwise they will be eliminated.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Miami Heat (3-1).

The Milwaukee Bucks (2-1) lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Heat so their only chance of advancing is on point differential.  But they know they are essentially eliminated unless they win this game by 50, which isn't happening.  They are only +13 in point differential and trailing everyone above them by anywhere from 11 to 48 points.  They also need both Cleveland and Detroit to lose tonight, and both are favored.

Knowing their fate is pretty much already sealed, I don't expect the Bucks to bring back Giannis tonight.  He was questionable in their last NBA Cup game and didn't play, losing at Miami to lose out on the tiebreaker with the Heat now.  That was basically their 'last stand' in this tournament, and they won't be all that motivated knowing they won it all last year.

The Knicks are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bucks.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  They weren't impressive the game prior either with a 3-point win over the Hornets as 8-point home favorites.  I'll gladly back the more motivated team looking for as big of a blowout as possible.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Hawks OVER 236.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  I question how much they'll be motivated to play defense tonight knowing they are already eliminated.  Meanwhile, the Cavs should be playing as fast as possible to win by as much as possible.  That will benefit the OVER tonight.  

The Hawks are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  The Cavs rank 7th in pace while the Hawks rank 10th, so these are two Top 10 teams in pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans rank 25th in defensive rating this season.  They are a very poor defensive team, but they are more of an OVER team when Zion Williamson (22.4 PPG) is healthy like he is tonight.  Throw in Derik Queen (12.4 PPG) and Trey Murphy (20.2 PPG), and the Pelicans have some offensive punch.

They are coming off a 143-130 win over the Bulls for 273 combined points.  They have been eliminated from NBA Cup contention after a 0-3 start where they have allowed an average of 121 points per game.  They won't be playing with much defensive intensity tonight as a result.

The Grizzlies are 1-1 in Group Play with an outside shot of advancing.  They have a +9 point differential, and if they win out they would have a chance of advancing on point differential, which is their only hope now that the Lakers clinched 1st place in Group B.  They have motivation to run the score up, so they will keep the foot on the gas for four quarters to improve their point differential.

The Grizzlies rank 11th in pace and 18th in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 125-115 loss to the Nuggets for 240 combined points.  This total of 234 is pretty short for a game involving the Grizzlies and Pelicans, especially when you look at their head-to-head history.  Indeed, the OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings finishing with 250, 263 and 256 combined points in the three overs.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Bucks/Heat NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 236.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season.  They should only be an even more potent offensive team moving forward with Tyler Herro back healthy.  Norman Powell is also expected to play tonight, so they will be potent tonight in particular.

The Heat are also motivated to win by margin so they won't be taking their foot off the gas for four quarters.  Point differential is a tiebreaker in the NBA Cup, so they want to win by as many points as possible as we've seen that play out with a +46 point differential in their 2-1 start this season.

The Bucks won't give up if they are down big because of that point differential tiebreak and a 2-0 start in the NBA Cup.  There's also a good chance they get a healthy Giannis for this one as he has been upgraded to questionable, and players that get upgraded to questionable usually play.  This total will skyrocket up if he's ruled in, and I like it even if he's not.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Raptors OVER 234.5

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  They have gotten healthier here of late to give their offense some punch with the healthy returns of Mathurin (24.3 PPG) and McConnell.  Having McConnell back is big because they run a lot faster with him in the lineup.

The Pacers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 239 or more combined points four times.  One of those was against these Pistons in a 127-112 loss for 239 combined points.  Detroit didn't even have Cade Cunningham in this game and still scored 127 points on this pathetic Indiana defense.

The Raptors also profile as an OVER team ranking 6th in offensive rating and 13th in pace.  What I really like about this OVER is the fact that the Pacers have already clinched 1st place in Group A in the NBA Cup and will be advancing no matter what.  I think they will relax their defensive intensity as a result, and this game will be played at max pace with little defense as a result.  

This will be the 2nd meeting of the season.  The Raptors won 129-111 for 240 combined points on November 15th.  Keep in mind the Pacers didn't have Mathurin for that game and were severely short-handed.  The Raptors only shot 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range and still scored 129 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Knicks/Hornets OVER 238

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (21.2 PPG, 9.3 APG) is healthy and in the lineup.  The Hornets are 7-3 OVER in games in which Ball has played finishing with 245 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.

The Hornets play faster and much more efficiently with Ball in the lineup.  And now Brandon Miller (16.7 PPG) is back healthy, so this will be one of the few games they have both Miller and Ball healthy at the same time this season.  Add in rookie Knueppel (19.4 PPG) and F Bridges (22.0 PPG), and the Hornets have a potent offense.  They are poor defensively either way.

The Knicks sit at 1-1 in the NBA Cup with a -2 point differential.  They need to improve that point differential while winning this game, so they will be keeping the foot on the gas for four quarters.  They know this poor Charlotte defense is the perfect time for them to score as many points as possible, and they will be looking to take advantage.

The Knicks rank 3rd in offensive rating this season with an elite offense.  They are also without their best defender in OG Anunoby.  They profile as a dead nuts OVER team and have gone 10-6 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Pistons/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Detroit -2.5

The Detroit Pistons are 13-0 in their last 13 games overall.  What has been impressive is that they have dealt with several injuries during this streak.  But now they are as healthy as they have been all season with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Tobias Harris all back in the lineup now.  They may legitimately be the best team in the East.

They are certainly better than the Boston Celtics, and they will be the more motivated team tonight.  They are not only motivated to extend this winning streak to 14 games, but more importantly to win Group B in the NBA Cup.  A win would put them at 3-0 alongside the Orlando Magic, who have a +61 point differential compared to their +27.  They also want to assure that their point differential is as good as possible because if they end up losing to the Magic in their next game, they would still advance based on point differential.

The Celtics have basically been eliminated from advancing in the NBA Cup due to their 1-2 start.  They can get to 2-2, but that wouldn't be good enough to advance, especially since they have a -20 point differential right now.  They know it and will be lacking motivation as a result.  They will also be without their best defender in C Neemias Queta (9.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG), so the Pistons should get whatever they want at the rim.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Magic/76ers NBC No-Brainer on OVER 228

The Magic have turned into a dead nuts OVER team since losing Paulo Banchero to injury.  The ball no longer sticks in his hands in isolation, and the Magic play with a lot more movement and a lot more ball sharing which sets up better looks.  They are also playing a lot faster without him.

The Magic are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall.  They have gone for 230 or more combined points in all five games, so this total of 228 is pretty short for a game involving the Magic right now.  That includes 267 combined points with the Celtics and 254 with the Knicks in their last two games coming in.

The Philadelphia 76ers are led by Tyrese Maxey who is having a MVP-caliber season.  He had 54 points in a 123-114 win at Milwaukee, and came back with 27 points in a 127-117 loss to the Heat the next night.  They are going to have to go more small ball tonight without Joel Embiid and will have no problem running with the Magic.

This is a rematch from a 136-124 win by Philadelphia for 260 combined points on October 27th in their first meeting this season.  The Magic only shot 8-of-35 (32%) from 3-point range in that game while the 76ers had pretty much a normal night of shooting.  Oddsmakers have failed to adjust up enough for the change in style for the Magic without Banchero.  Point differential is a tiebreaker in the NBA Cup so whoever is leading late won't take their foot off the gas.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Cup TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Wizards OVER 236

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They play fast and they don't stop anyone, which leads to a lot of high-scoring games.

The Wizards and their opponents have combined for at least 235 points in seven of their last nine games overall, so this total of 236 is pretty short for a game involving Washington.  Atlanta is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 232 or more combined points in five of those seven games, so it's also pretty short for a game involving the Hawks.

The Hawks have motivation to keep trying to run up the score late as point differential is a tiebreaker.  I don't think they'll take their foot off the gas, and the Wizards will gladly run with them.  The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings finishing with 236 or more combined points in eight of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bulls/Pelicans OVER 244

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-6 OVER in all games this season while ranking 2nd in pace.  They are going to play even faster now that Coby White is healthy and in the lineup.  He and Josh Giddey will keep these Bulls running as fast as possible as long as they are on the court.

The Pelicans rank 27th in defensive rating this season.  They are a very poor defensive team, but they are more of an OVER team when Zion Williamson (21.4 PPG) is healthy like he is tonight.  Throw in Derik Queen (12.6 PPG) and Trey Murphy (20.2 PPG), and the Pelicans have some offensive punch.  They will get their points against the Bulls tonight and gladly run with them.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Bulls and Pelicans.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Pacers OVER 235.5

The Pistons are 5-1 OVER in their last six games while scoring at least 120 points in five of those six games.  They rank 8th in the NBA on offensive rating and get even more reinforcements now with PG Jaden Ivey and SG Caris LeVert returning to the lineup tonight.

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  They have gotten healthier here of late to give their offense some punch with the healthy returns of Mathurin (26.4 PPG) and McConnell.  Having McConnell back is big because they run a lot faster with him in the lineup.

The Pacers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 239 or more combined points three times.  One of those was against these Pistons in a 127-112 loss for 239 combined points.  Detroit didn't even have Cade Cunningham in this game and still scored 127 points.

What really stood out as well was the Pistons shot 9-of-35 (26%) from 3-point range while the Pacers shot just 9-of-31 (29%) from 3-point range in that first meeting.  So they got to 239 combined points despite the injuries and poor shooting, so there's actually a ton of room for more points here in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz OVER 244

The Jazz are 5-0 OVER in their last five games combining for 266 points with the Thunder, 266 with the Lakers, 254 with the Bulls at the end of regulation, 254 with the Hawks and 270 with the Pacers.  The Jazz rank 6th in pace and 27th in defensive rating, and as long as Markkanen is healthy and playing the Jazz are a pretty solid offensive team as well.

What has really stood out is just how high-scoring these Utah games have been when they are at home in Salt Lake City and dictating the pace.  Opposing teams tend to get more tired in the altitude and it affects them defensively more than anything.  The Jazz are 7-1 OVER in all home games this season finishing with 233 or more combined points in all eight games, and and 254 or more in seven of those eight games.

The Lakers are fully healthy now with LeBron and Vincent back to go along with Reaves and Doncic.  They beat the Jazz 140-126 at home in their last game.  What stood out is neither team shot well from 3-point range and they still combined for 266 points.  The Jazz shot 13-of-45 (29%) while the Lakers shot 11-of-32 (34%) from deep.

The Lakers are 10-5 OVER in their 15 games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Lakers finishing with 242 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  This total of 244 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Blazers/Thunder OVER 234.5

The Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace this season and have gone 12-4 OVER in their 16 games.  They are coming off a 127-123 win over the Warriors in the NBA Cup despite not having Sharpe (22.6 PPG) or Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG) in the lineup.

The Thunder went for 256 combined points with the Jazz last time out and 235 with the Pelicans three games ago.  They won't mind running with the Blazers, and they want to make a statement here offensively after suffering their only loss of the season to the Blazers.

They lost 121-119 in Portland for 240 combined points on November 5th.  They shot just 42% from the field and still scored 119 points.  The Blazers only shot 41% from the field and still scored 121.  So there's even some room for improvement for both teams in the shooting department in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -4.5

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They are coming off an upset loss to the Nets in a home-and-home situation after beating the Nets by 14 on the road in the game prior.  They will come back motivated here to beat the Orlando Magic tonight.

The Celtics have a big rest advantage over the Magic.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days after a huge 133-121 win over the Knicks last night.

Jalen Suggs played 32 minutes and scored 26 points last night and will likely sit this 2nd of a back-to-back for injury management.  The Magic are already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (21.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG).  Those two combined for 48 points in a 111-107 home loss to the Celtics in their last meeting on November 9th.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 221

The Celtics are a dead nuts UNDER team ranking dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Magic are in no hurry either ranking 20th in pace.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will already be the 3rd meeting between the Magic and Celtics this season.  Nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams have seen 218 or fewer combined points.

Jalen Suggs played 32 minutes and scored 26 points last night and will likely sit this 2nd of a back-to-back for injury management.  The Magic are already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (21.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG).  Those two combined for 48 points in a 111-107 home loss to the Celtics in their last meeting on November 9th.

So the Magic won't have two of their best scorers and their floor general in Suggs, so points will be very hard to come by.  The Celtics already struggle on the offensive end as well, relying more on defense this season than ever to be competitive.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets ML +107

Charlotte Hornets are a much better team with La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 9.6 APG) is in the lineup.  The offense runs much faster and smoother with him at PG.  The Hornets are basically fully healthy now with Brandon Miller (14.5 PPG) making his return after sitting out the last 13 games after starting the first two games of the season.  He's the reason many were excited about the Hornets this season.

The Clippers have been a much worse defensive team without Kawhi Leonard (24.3 PPG) and Derrick Jones Jr. (10.5 PPG).  They are also without Bradley Beal for the season now, and the Norman Powell trade couldn't look any worse than it does right now.

The Clippers are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS and there's no end in sight.  They are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games with their lone win coming in OT against the Mavericks.  They have no business being favored on the road here against a much healthier, better Hornets team in their current form.  

This is also a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Clippers starting at 1:00 EST, something they are not used to and I think it will take them some time to wake up.  Bet the Hornets on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Hornets OVER 226.5

Charlotte Hornets is a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 9.6 APG) is in the lineup.  The offense runs much faster and smoother with him at PG.  The Hornets are basically fully healthy now with Brandon Miller (14.5 PPG) making his return after sitting out the last 13 games after starting the first two games of the season.  He's the reason many were excited about the Hornets this season.

The Clippers have been a much worse defensive team without Kawhi Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr.  That means more minutes for guys like John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic who are all offense and no defense.

The Clippers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games finishing with 230 combined points with the Magic, 239 with the Celtics, 228 at the end of regulation with the Mavericks and 246 with the Nuggets.

The OVER is 6-3 in the nine games in which Ball has played this season finishing with 227 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  This total of 226.5 is very short for a game involving the Hornets with Ball in the lineup.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.