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Jack Jones NBA Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
04-04-25 Nuggets v. Warriors 104-118 Win 100 11 h 34 m Show

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors PK

The Golden State Warriors are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall and have been dominant since trading for Jimmy Butler.  Despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, Steve Kerr stated that all his starters would play again tonight after a road win over the Lakers last night.

It's a short travel back home for Golden State, and they should be favored here instead of PK.  The Nuggets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall and have been overvalued for weeks.  It will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nuggets, who are banged up right now.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

04-04-25 Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 235 Top 104-118 Loss -108 12 h 39 m Show

20* Nuggets/Warriors NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 235

Both the Nuggets and Warriors are trending OVER here lately.  The Warriors are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 254, 259 and 239 points.

The Nuggets get all their players back tonight after they all rested last game against San Antonio.  They have been a dead nuts OVER team as long as Jokic is healthy and playing.  They went for 238 or more combined points in three of their last four games in which that was the case.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

04-04-25 Thunder v. Rockets OVER 227.5 111-125 Win 100 9 h 13 m Show

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Rockets OVER 227.5

Two teams trending OVER here down the stretch square off tonight.  And the OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Rockets and Thunder with 233 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  The only one that went under was in the NBA Cup where both teams played max intensity defense.  They came back for 265 combined points in their most recent regular season meeting on March 3rd.

The Thunder have scored at least 119 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The Rockets are 8-2-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 227 or more combined points in eight of those 11 games.  The Rockets have scored at least 121 points in four of their last five games, including 143 and 148 in two of their last three.  One of Houston's best defenders in Dillon Brooks has been suspended for this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

04-04-25 Blazers v. Bulls OVER 234.5 Top 113-118 Loss -110 10 h 40 m Show

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Bulls OVER 234.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace this season.  The OVER is 6-1-1 in Bulls last eight games overall with 236 or more combined points in all eight games.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 234.5-point total.

The OVER is 5-2 in Blazers last seven games overall with 233 or more combined points in five of those seven games, including 235 or more five times.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

04-04-25 Suns v. Celtics OVER 225 103-123 Win 100 9 h 54 m Show

15* Suns/Celtics NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 225

The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to their terrible defense.  They are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 233 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They have allowed 133, 148, 124 and 132 points in their last four games overall.

The Boston Celtics are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall combining for at least 227 points in three of those four games.  One of those was a 132-102 win at Phoenix for 234 combined points on March 26th.  It should be another shootout in the rematch that sails over this short 225-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

04-04-25 Jazz v. Pacers OVER 237 112-140 Win 100 9 h 40 m Show

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Pacers OVER 237

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight.  The Pacers rank 8th in pace 7th in offensive rating while the Jazz rank 7th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.

The Jazz have allowed at least 120 points in five of their last six games overall, including 143 to the Rockets last time out.  The Pacers are going to hang a big number on the Jazz to lead the way to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

04-03-25 Warriors v. Lakers OVER 228.5 123-116 Win 100 11 h 30 m Show

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 228.5

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers allowing 118 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  But the Lakers have scored at least 117 points in three of their last four and are an elite offensive team when Doncic, James and Reaves are healthy.  The Lakers are 9-4 OVER in their last 13 games overall.

The Golden State Warriors are thriving offensively with Steph Curry back healthy.  They are coming off a 148-106 win at San Antonio for 254 combined points and a 134-125 win at Memphis for 259 combined points. 

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Warriors and Lakers.  They have combined for at least 223 points in all nine meetings, including 232 or more in five of their last seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

04-03-25 Wolves v. Nets +13.5 105-90 Loss -115 9 h 13 m Show

15* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +13.5

The Brooklyn Nets refuse to tank and have been competitive as a result here down the stretch.  They are exactly the type of team you can make money on.  The Nets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall including consecutive upset wins over the Wizards and Mavericks.

This looks like a letdown spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They are coming off their wild 140-139 (2 OT) road win at Denver where they won despite a 60-point triple-double from Nikola Jokic.  Keep in mind the Nuggets were without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. for that contest.

The Timberwolves have beaten the Nets by more than 11 points just once in their last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Nets pertaining to this 13.5-point spread.  This game will be much more competitive than this line indicates.  Bet the Nets Thursday.

04-03-25 Grizzlies v. Heat OVER 223.5 Top 110-108 Loss -108 9 h 41 m Show

20* Grizzlies/Heat TNT No-Brainer on OVER 223.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but Morant just returned from a 6-game absence.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in eight of their last 12 games overall.  This total of 223.5 is very low for a game involving the Grizzlies right now.

The Miami Heat are going through their best stretch of offense all season during their current 6-game winning streak.  They have scored 118 or more points in five of those six wins.  That includes 124 against the Celtics last night, a Boston team that is one of the best defensive squads in the NBA.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

04-02-25 Hawks v. Mavs -3 Top 118-120 Loss -110 24 h 40 m Show

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks -3

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall to sit in 9th place in the West.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of 10th place Sacramento and 2 games ahead of Phoenix.  So they are basically playing playoff basketball right now and motivated.

A big reason for their success is the return of Anthony Davis.  But they also recently got PJ Washington back from injury, and now both Lively and Gafford are back.  The chemistry should just keep getting better and better with this team as they close out the regular season.

But this is more of a fade of Atlanta than it is a play on Dallas.  This is a very tough spot for the Hawks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 127-113 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers last night.  That was such a bad result considering the Blazers were without 3 of their best players in Simons, Henderson and Grant.

Trae Young and Dyson Daniels both played over 36 minutes for the Hawks last night.  The Mavericks have won three consecutive meetings with the Hawks and are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

04-02-25 Knicks v. Cavs -10.5 105-124 Win 100 20 h 30 m Show

15* Knicks/Cavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -10.5

The New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a lackluster 105-91 home win over the tanking Philadelphia 76ers last night.  The 76ers were sitting pretty much everyone but Grimes and still were in the game until the final minutes.

Because it was a close game in the 4th quarter, five players for the Knicks played at least 32 minutes last night.  This team is already short-handed as it is playing without their top three PG's in Brunson, McBride and Payne, while also having Karl-Anthony Towns being a late scratch due to a knee injury.

The Knicks will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but their 6th game in 9 days which is about as tough as it gets in their current state.  They must play a rested Cleveland Cavaliers team that has had the last two days off.

I've been fading the Cavaliers a lot lately because they have pretty much had the No. 1 seed locked up.  But their lead has now been cut to 4 games by the Celtics with 7 games left.  I think we see them play with more urgency now until they lock up the No. 1 seed, especially coming in on two days' rest tonight.

Unlike the Knicks, the Cavaliers are fully healthy right now.  They beat the Knicks 142-105 in their lone home meeting earlier this season.  And that was even with Brunson, Towns, McBride and Payne in the lineup.  They will at least be without three of these guys in the rematch, and I wouldn't be surprised if Towns sits again as well.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

04-01-25 Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 236 134-125 Win 100 9 h 38 m Show

15* Warriors/Grizzlies NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 236

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but Morant just returned from a 6-game absence.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in seven of their last 11 games overall.

The Golden State Warriors are thriving offensively with Steph Curry back healthy.  They are coming off a 148-106 win at San Antonio for 254 combined points.  They won't mind getting in a shootout with the Grizzlies tonight.

In fact, these games always tend to be shootouts.  The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234 or more combined points in all four meetings.  They have gone for 237 or more combined points in six of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

04-01-25 Raptors v. Bulls OVER 235 118-137 Win 100 9 h 35 m Show

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Bulls OVER 235

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  They are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 236 or more combined points in all seven games, including 262 with the Thunder last night.  They have scored at least 117 points in all seven games and are thriving offensively with Coby White and Josh Giddey running the show.

The Toronto Raptors rank 11th in pace and won't mind getting up and down with the Bulls tonight.  They are scoring an average of 115.8 points per game during their current 4-game winning streak.  The Bulls will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

04-01-25 Raptors +5 v. Bulls Top 118-137 Loss -108 9 h 38 m Show

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors +5

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night.  That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  That includes 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with the four wins coming by an average of 16.8 points per game.

I love the spot for the Raptors tonight.  They had yesterday off and will be out for revenge from an OT loss to the Bulls in their last meeting.  They have actually lost all three meetings with the Bulls this season, so they'll be extra motivated to avoid the season sweep.

This is a terrible spot for the Bulls.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 145-117 loss in Oklahoma City last night.  This is probably a very tired team right now after going to the wire with the Mavericks in a 1-point loss and the Bulls in a 2-point win in their two games prior.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

04-01-25 Blazers v. Hawks -5 127-113 Loss -107 8 h 8 m Show

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks -5

The Atlanta Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season right now and motivated to improve their playoff positioning to assure they give themselves their best chance of making the playoffs through the play-in.  The Hawks are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall and coming off a 145-124 road win at Milwaukee as 4-point dogs.

The Portland Trail Blazers made a valiant run at the play-in, but now it appears they are calling off the dogs.  The Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and haven't even been competitive in any of them with all four losses coming by 11 points or more.  They are without Grant and Henderson and Simons is questionable.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

04-01-25 Blazers v. Hawks OVER 236.5 127-113 Win 100 8 h 8 m Show

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Hawks OVER 236.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  The Hawks are 6-0-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 234 or more combined points in all seven games.  In fact, they have gone for at least 233 combined points with their opponents in 15 of their last 16 games overall.

The Blazers have clearly let go of the rope defensively.  The OVER is 4-1 in Blazers last five games overall with 233 or more combined points in four of those five games.  They have allowed 129, 128 and 122 points in three of their last four games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

03-31-25 Rockets v. Lakers OVER 223.5 98-104 Loss -112 11 h 43 m Show

15* Rockets/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 223.5

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch as the Lakers allowed 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando, 119 to Indiana, 119 to Chicago and 127 to Memphis for six consecutive games of allowing 118 points or more.  

The Lakers are 9-3 OVER in their last 12 games overall.  They are thriving offensively with a healthy James, Doncic and Reaves.  They have scored 120, 117 and 134 points in their last three games since James returned.  The OVER is 4-1 in their last five games with 236 or more combined points in four of the five, and 224 against a dead nuts under team in the Magic.

The Rockets are also really trending OVER here of late.  They are 7-1-1 OVER in their last nine games overall and fully healthy right now.  The Rockets have scored at least 116 points in seven of those nine games, and 121 or more in five of them.  The OVER is 2-0 in two meetings this season with 234 and 254 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

03-31-25 Nets v. Mavs -9 113-109 Loss -105 10 h 39 m Show

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -9

The Dallas Mavericks are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  A big reason for their success is the return of Anthony Davis.  But they also recently got PJ Washington back from injury, and now both Lively and Gafford are expected to make their returns tonight.

The Mavericks host a tanking Brooklyn Nets team that have gone 1-6 SU in their last seven games with their only win coming at Washington by 3 against a Wizards team that is also tanking.  The Nets lost by 31, 30 and 19 points in their previous three games.  That 19-point loss came at home to the Mavericks, and it will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  The Nets will be without Cam Johnson, Clowney and Sharpe tonight.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

03-31-25 Bulls v. Thunder OVER 238 Top 117-145 Win 100 8 h 38 m Show

20* Bulls/Thunder NBA No-Brainer on OVER 238

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 236 or more combined points in all six games, including 239 or more in five of them.  They have scored at least 119 points in all six games and are thriving offensively with Coby White and Josh Giddey running the show.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are also a dead nuts OVER team ranking 8th in pace and 4th in offensive rating.  The Thunder have scored at least 121 points in six of their last seven games overall.  I expect the Thunder to get at least 130 and the Bulls at least 115 tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

03-31-25 Celtics v. Grizzlies OVER 235.5 Top 117-103 Loss -110 8 h 23 m Show

20* Celtics/Grizzlies TNT No-Brainer on OVER 235.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but Morant just returned from a 6-game absence last time out in a 134-127 shootout loss to the Lakers that saw 261 combined points.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in seven of their last 10 games overall.

The Boston Celtics are almost fully healthy right now and thriving offensively scoring 121 or more points in four of their last five games overall.  The Grizzlies beat the Celtics 127-121 for 248 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

03-31-25 Kings v. Pacers OVER 233 Top 109-111 Loss -110 9 h 40 m Show

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Pacers OVER 233

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 7th in the NBA in pace this season.  The OVER is 3-0 in Pacers last three games overall combining for 239 points with the Lakers, 271 with the Wizards and 243 with the Thunder.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Pacers right now.

The Sacramento Kings are fully healthy and certainly more of an OVER team when that's the case.  They have plenty of offensive firepower with LaVine, DeRozan, Sabonis and Monk.  And they are a very poor defensive team allowing 119 or more points in eight of their last 11 games.  The OVER is 8-5 in Kings last 13 games overall.

The Kings and Pacers have combined for 247 or more points in three of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

03-30-25 Raptors -4 v. 76ers Top 127-109 Win 100 10 h 2 m Show

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night.  That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are also pretty healthy right now with Barrett and Barnes all expected to suit up, and they have shown off their tremendous depth battling injuries all season.

The Philadelphia 76ers are in full blown tank mode going 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  The only games they were somewhat competitive in were a 5-point home loss to the Wizards and an 8-point loss at San Antonio, which are two of the worst teams in the NBA.  They also lost by 23 at home to Miami, by 13 at Atlanta, by 13 at New Orleans and by 33 at OKC.

Making matters worse for the 76ers is the fact that they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that 23-point loss to Miami last night.  They have 8 players listed out tonight and their are 8 of their best players.  Bet the Raptors Sunday.

03-30-25 Clippers v. Cavs OVER 229.5 122-127 Win 100 6 h 19 m Show

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Cavs OVER 229.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  The OVER is 7-3 in Clippers last 10 games overall.  They have gone for 232 or more combined points in four of their last five games coming in.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 10th in pace.  They have gone 48-26 OVER in all games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Cavs last seven games overall with 232 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 229.5 is too short for a game involving these two teams today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

03-29-25 Pacers v. Thunder OVER 237.5 111-132 Win 100 9 h 7 m Show

15* Pacers/Thunder NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 237.5

Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers like to push the tempo, so this game should see a ton of possessions to help us cash this OVER 237.5 ticket.  The Pacers rank 7th in pace this season while the Thunder rank 8th in pace.

The Pacers have scored at least 119 points in six of their last eight games overall while going 5-3 OVER during this stretch.  The Thunder have scored at least 118 points in 16 of their last 19 games overall while going 11-8 OVER during this stretch.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings with 232 or more combined points in eight of those nine meetings, including 238 or more in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

03-29-25 Mavs v. Bulls -135 120-119 Loss -135 9 h 54 m Show

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls ML -135

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 9-2 SU & 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Lakers as 4-point home dogs, upset the Nuggets by 10 as 2.5-point road dogs, upset the Lakers by 31 as 10.5-point road dogs, upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are in a great rest spot playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They have a ton of confidence right now and want to keep this momentum going, especially when they are fighting for positioning in the all-important play-in in the East with the 4 teams separated by a total of 3 games.

The Dallas Mavericks remain an injury-ravaged team with 10 players on the injury report, and they remain without Irving, Lively and Gafford with PJ Washington questionable as well.  They have done a good job of fighting through these injuries, but I don't like this spot for them tonight.  The Mavericks will be playing their 4th road game in 6 days tonight, and the Bulls rank 3rd in pace and will test their tired legs.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Saturday.

03-29-25 Lakers v. Grizzlies OVER 237 134-127 Win 100 9 h 52 m Show

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Grizzlies OVER 237

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-8 SU in their last 12 games, including 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando, 119 to Indiana and 119 to Chicago.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season.  They play fast with or without JA Morant, but there's a good chance he returns from a 6-game absence as he participated in shootaround this morning.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season if he returns.

The Lakers are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 236 points in six of their last nine games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

03-29-25 Lakers v. Grizzlies -135 Top 134-127 Loss -135 9 h 55 m Show

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies ML -135

It's time to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies.  They have gone 8-12 SU & 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  That performance led to the firing of Taylor Jenkins, and I always like backing teams in their 1st game with an interim head coach.  They tend to be inspired with a new voice in the locker room, and I expect that to be the case for the Grizzlies today.

JA Morant participated in shootaround after missing the past six games with a hamstring injury.  I'm expecting him to return.  I also like the fact that the Grizzlies have a big rest advantage over the Lakers.  The Grizzlies will be fresh and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-8 SU in their last 12 games, including 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando, 119 to Indiana and 119 to Chicago.

A big reason for the Lakers' struggles is just how tired they are right now after a brutal schedule in terms of rest that saw them have to play 6 games in 8 days from March 13-March 20.  The Lakers are coming off two dog fights beating the Pacers at the on Wednesday and coming back to lose to the Bulls at the buzzer on Thursday.  It will be their 11th game in 17 days, which is far and away the toughest rest situation any team has faced all season.   Bet the Grizzlies on the Money Line Saturday.

03-28-25 Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 239.5 Top 93-129 Loss -108 9 h 57 m Show

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Nuggets OVER 239.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Utah Jazz visit the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets rank 6th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating while the Jazz rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.

The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games overall with 244 or more combined points four times.  The OVER is 2-0 in Jazz last two games including 243 combined points with Memphis.  The Jazz and Nuggets combined for 253 points in their most recent meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

03-28-25 Warriors -14.5 v. Pelicans 111-95 Win 100 8 h 2 m Show

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Golden State Warriors -14.5

The Golden State Warriors are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games overall and motivated to avoid the play-in in the West.  They are also motivated coming off one of their worst losses of the season at Miami.  They will be fresh and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight.

The New Orleans Pelicans are tanking right now.  They have recent losses to the Rockets by 29, the Magic by 20, the Pistons by 46 and the Timberwolves by 41.  And now they have decided to rest McCollum and Williamson, which means they will be without six of their top seven scorers tonight.  What a mess.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

03-28-25 Hornets v. Raptors -5.5 97-108 Win 100 8 h 33 m Show

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Toronto Raptors -5.5

The Toronto Raptors continue to play hard almost every night.  That is evidenced by the fact that the Raptors are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are also pretty healthy right now with Quickley, Poeltl and Barnes all expected to suit up.

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly in tank mode.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall including four games where they weren't even competitive losing by 35 to the Clippers, 32 to the Hawks, 35 to the Thunder and 17 to the Heat.  They have elected to rest their best player in La'Melo Ball tonight as well.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

03-28-25 Clippers -11.5 v. Nets Top 132-100 Win 100 8 h 33 m Show

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -11.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in seven of their last eight games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  And they played the Thunder to the wire in a 2-point loss last time out.

The Clippers have surrounded that loss to the Thunder with six blowout wins in their last seven games.  They beat the Knicks by 13, Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, while also crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.  The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 4rd game in 9 days and just their 2nd game in 5 days.

The Brooklyn Nets look to have thrown in the towel and are in full blown tank mode.  They have lost five straight and eight of their last nine coming in.  The last two losses were very concerning and showed their lack of effort, losing by 19 at home to the Mavericks as 3-point dogs and then by 30 at home to the Raptors as 2.5-point favorites.  It won't go any better for them tonight against a surging, motivated Los Angeles team.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

03-27-25 Lakers v. Bulls OVER 239 Top 117-119 Loss -108 20 h 8 m Show

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Bulls OVER 239

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  They have gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall largely due to how well they are playing offensively, scoring 111 or more points in all 10 games and 121 or more six times.  The OVER is 4-0 in Bulls last four games with 144 or more combined points in all four games.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-7 SU in their last 11 games, including 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando and 119 to Indiana.

The Lakers are still a pretty good offensive team, and they have gone 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall. That includes their 146-115 loss to the Bulls less than a week ago that saw 261 combined points.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings in this series.  It should be yet another shootout tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

03-27-25 Lakers v. Bulls +3.5 Top 117-119 Win 100 20 h 52 m Show

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 8-2 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Nuggets by 10 as 2.5-point road dogs, upset the Lakers by 31 as 10.5-point road dogs, upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are in a great rest spot coming in on two days' rest after last beating the Nuggets on Monday.

The Los Angeles Lakers were projected to be a pretty poor defensive team with the addition of Luka Doncic and no true defensive big man on the roster.  That has come to fruition here down the stretch with the Lakers going 4-7 SU in their last 11 games, including 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four while allowing 118 points to Milwaukee, 146 to Chicago, 118 to Orlando and 119 to Indiana.

A big reason for the Lakers' struggles is just how tired they are right now after a brutal schedule in terms of rest that saw them have to play 6 games in 8 days from March 13-March 20.  The Lakers will now be playing another 2nd of a back-to-back after a narrow 120-119 win in Indiana last night.  It will be their 10th game in 15 days, which is far and away the toughest rest situation any team has faced all season.  Bet the Bulls Thursday. 

03-27-25 Hawks v. Heat OVER 227 112-122 Win 100 19 h 12 m Show

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Heat OVER 227

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace this season.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Hawks last five games overall going for 235 or more combined points in all five games.  That includes games against Brooklyn, Charlotte and Houston, which are three dead nuts under teams that play slow.

Miami fits the profile of a dead nuts under team that also plays slow.  But the books have adjusted this total down too much for it.  This total of 227 is too low for a game involving Atlanta.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 228 or more combined points in three of the four.  That includes 240 combined points in their most recent meeting on February 26th.  It should be more of the same in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

03-26-25 Celtics v. Suns +3.5 132-102 Loss -110 25 h 12 m Show

15* Celtics/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +3.5

The Phoenix Suns have a lot to play for right now.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the final play-in spot in the West.  And with the way they have been playing recently, they are clearly fighting hard to make the playoffs.

The Suns have gone 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They upset the Clippers, took the Nuggets to OT on the road, only lost by 2 at Memphis, crushed the Kings by 16 at home, crushed the Raptors by 40 at home, covered in a 6-point home win over the surging Bulls, upset the Cavaliers by 11 as 8.5-point home dogs, and beat the Bucks by 2 at home.

The Suns are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are without Bradley Beal, but the chemistry has actually been better for them without him.  You could see how much their win against the Bucks meant to them with Kevin Durant hugging all his teammates after.  I just like the way this team is playing right now, and no question they'll be up for this game with the defending champs coming to town.

The Celtics lost their best player in Jayson Tatum to an ankle injury last game and is doubtful for this game and will likely miss at least a few games.  Boston will now be playing its 4th road game in 6 days.  The Celtics have questionable motivation right now as they are pretty much locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East.  I don't think they should be favorite on the road over the surging Suns without Tatum.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

03-26-25 Lakers v. Pacers OVER 233.5 Top 120-119 Win 100 23 h 3 m Show

20* Lakers/Pacers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Lakers just got LeBron James back from injury and are one of the best offensive teams in the league with James, Doncic and Reeves running the show.  The problem is their defensive warts have really shown of late.

The OVER is 7-2 in Lakers last nine games overall.  They have allowed 118 points or more in five of their last eight games.  They gave up 146 to the Bulls the other night in James' first game back from injury.

It won't get any easier for them against the Pacers, who recently got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury and are at full strength right now.  The Pacers rank 7th in pace and 9th in offensive rating.

The Pacers and Lakers have combined for at least 231 points in six of their last nine meetings.  That includes a 124-117 win by the Lakers for 241 combined points in their 1st meeting this season on February 8th.  James and Doncic both did not play in that meeting.  It should be another shootout in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

03-26-25 Clippers -122 v. Knicks Top 126-113 Win 100 23 h 1 m Show

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers ML -122

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six of their last seven games.  The only team that held them below that number was the Thunder, who are the best defensive team in the league.  And they played the Thunder to the wire in a 2-point loss last time out.

The Clippers were coming off off five straight blowout wins beating Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, and crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.  The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and coming in on two days' rest.

A big reason I'm fading the Knicks is because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Mavericks last night, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back themselves.  Four starters played at least 33 minutes for the Knicks.  

They are without their top two PG's in Brunson and McBride, and I just don't trust them that much until Brunson returns.  The Knicks are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Wednesday.

03-25-25 Cavs v. Blazers +7 122-111 Loss -115 10 h 36 m Show

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 3 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 19-12 SU & 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 6th game in 13 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the East's No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers, a team that is struggling to find motivation right now.

The Cavaliers are pretty much locked into the No. 1 seed in the East.  They are playing like it going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win coming against tanking Utah.  Now the Cavaliers have elected to rest Donovan Mitchell playing their 5th road game in 8 days.

Portland wants revenge from a 133-129 (OT) loss at Cleveland on March 2nd in their first meeting this season.  The Blazers blew a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter in that game.  The Cavs were without Mitchell in that one as well, and the Blazers can hang with the Cavs without Mitchell as they have proven once already.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

03-25-25 Hawks +8.5 v. Rockets 114-121 Win 100 8 h 37 m Show

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks +8.5

The Atlanta Hawks are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall to try and improve their playoff positioning.

The Houston Rockets are also playing well, but they just had their 9-game winning streak snapped with a 116-111 upset home loss to the Denver Nuggets without Nikola Jokic last time out.  I always like fading teams after having an extending winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect.

It's not like the Rockets are blowing anyone out, either.  Each of their last four wins have come by 8 points or fewer and against suspect competition in the Bulls, 76ers, Magic and Heat.  This is a step up in class for the Rockets tonight against a surging Atlanta team.  

The Hawks are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Rockets.  All three losses came by 6 points or fewer.  In fact, the Hawks haven't lost by more than 7 points to the Rockets in any of their last 10 meetings, making for a 10-0 system backing Atlanta pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

03-25-25 Hawks v. Rockets OVER 235 Top 114-121 Push 0 8 h 37 m Show

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Rockets OVER 235

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace this season.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall going for 236 or more combined points in all four games.  That includes game against Brooklyn and Charlotte, which are two dead nuts under teams.

The Houston Rockets are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall.  They are fully healthy right now and a dangerous offensive team when that's the case.  They won't mind getting up and down with the Hawks tonight.

The Hawks and Rockets have combined for at least 235 points in five of their last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

03-24-25 Bucks v. Suns -2.5 106-108 Loss -115 10 h 2 m Show

15* Bucks/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns have a lot to play for right now.  They are tied with the Dallas Mavericks for the final play-in spot in the West.  And with the way they have been playing recently, they are clearly fighting hard to make the playoffs.

The Suns have gone 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They upset the Clippers, took the Nuggets to OT on the road, only lost by 2 at Memphis, crushed the Kings by 16 at home, crushed the Raptors by 40 at home, covered in a 6-point home win over the surging Bucks and upset the Cavaliers by 11 as 8.5-point home dogs last time out.

The Suns have now had the last two days off to rest, recover and get healthy.  They are without Bradley Beal, but the chemistry has actually been better for them without him.  I expect a big effort from the Suns laying the short number here tonight.

The Bucks have had two easy games in their last two due to injuries to their opponents.  The Lakers rested everyone when they beat them, and the Kings were without two starters in Monk and Sabonis.  So the Bucks have been able to get by without Damian Lillard, who they will be without again tonight.  

I don't expect it to go nearly as easy for them against this motivated, rested Suns team tonight.  The Bucks will be playing their 10th game in 17 days and their 4th consecutive road game.  This is a great spot to back the short home favorite.  Bet the Suns Monday.

03-24-25 Bulls +3.5 v. Nuggets Top 129-119 Win 100 9 h 57 m Show

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 7-2 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Lakers by 31 as 10.5-point road dogs, upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  Now I fully expect them to upset the short-handed, tired Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 116-111 upset win in Houston last night.

Now the Nuggets will not only be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but also their 10th game in 16 days.  It's no wonder they are struggling right now going 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are without their best player in Nikola Jokic, and I wouldn't be surprised if they rest some more guys tonight after Murray played 38 minutes, Gordon 37, Braun 34 and Porter Jr. 32 last night.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

03-24-25 Mavs -125 v. Nets 120-101 Win 100 8 h 39 m Show

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Dallas Mavericks ML -125

The Dallas Mavericks are tied with the Phoenix Suns for the final play-in spot in the West.  They are desperate for wins right now, and highly motivated to make the playoffs with the prospects that Anthony Davis could possibly return tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable.  At the very least he should be back soon, which gives them hope.

The Mavericks have been much more competitive in their last two games even without Davis, and likely due to the return of a healthy PJ Washington.  They led the Pacers by 7 in the final minute before blowing it to lose 135-131 as 10.5-point road dogs on Wednesday, March 19th.  They bounced back with a 123-117 win as 9.5-point home dogs to the Detroit Pistons on Friday.

Now the Mavericks have had the last two days off so they are rested and ready to go.  While they have a lot to play for, the Brooklyn Nets have nothing to play for but pride here down the stretch.  And I think this is a terrible spot for the Nets, who will be without their floor general in De'Angelo Russell tonight.

But the reason it looks like a bad spot is that they were just in three straight dog fights on the road to the Pacers (twice) and the Celtics.  They only lost those three games by a combined 19 points.  I was on the Nets in those games because they were catching a ton of points.  Now they have to win this game to beat us, and I don't think they'll be able to do it.  They return home from that road trip, and they are a very tired team playing their 9th game in 15 days.  Bet the Mavericks on the Money Line Monday.

03-23-25 Thunder v. Clippers +3 103-101 Win 100 9 h 10 m Show

15* Thunder/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +3

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six consecutive games.  They are coming off five straight blowout wins beating Miami by 15 and Atlanta by 23 on the road, and crushing Charlotte by 35, Cleveland by 13 and Memphis by 20 at home.

The Clippers should be fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Now they want to show the top seed in the West in the Oklahoma City Thunder that they are for real.  No question the Clippers will be the more motivated team tonight.

The Thunder are going to struggle to find motivation here down the stretch.  They are locked into the No. 1 seed in the West sitting 12.5 games ahead of 2nd place Houston.  They have decided to rest players at times because of it, and tonight they will be without Jalen Williams and possibly Lu Dort, who are their two best defenders.  Life will be much easier on Khawi and Harden without these two.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

03-23-25 Thunder v. Clippers OVER 226.5 Top 103-101 Loss -108 9 h 9 m Show

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Clippers OVER 226.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.  The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in six consecutive games.

Now they play another dead nuts OVER team in the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder rank 8th in pace and 3rd in offensive rating.  They have scored at least 118 points in six of their last seven games overall despite resting some guys during this stretch.  They may be without two of their best defenders tonight as Jalen Williams is for sure out, and Lu Dort is questionable.

The Clippers and Thunder have combined for at least 232 points in five of their last seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

03-23-25 Celtics v. Blazers +7.5 129-116 Loss -108 6 h 13 m Show

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +7.5

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 2 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 19-11 SU & 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 5th game in 11 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the defending champion Boston Celtics, a team that is struggling to find motivation right now, and one that is also banged up.

The Celtics are basically locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East.  They are 5 games behind the Cavaliers for 1st place and 7 games ahead of the Knicks in 3rd place with just 12 games remaining.  Their biggest focus right now is to get guys healthy going into the playoffs, not winning games.

That has been evident with their play of late going 2-4 ATS in their last six games with some very concerning results.  They only beat Utah by 6 as 15.5-point favorites, lost outright at home to the Thunder, only beat the Nets by 2 as 11.5-point favorites and beat the Nets again by 8 as 14-point favorites.  They are without Jaylen Brown, and Tatum, Holiday and Porzingis are all questionable to play tonight.  They should not be 7.5-point road favorites as a result.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

03-23-25 76ers v. Hawks OVER 239 Top 119-132 Win 100 6 h 18 m Show

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Hawks OVER 239

The Philadelphia 76ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 8-1-1 OVER in their last 10 games with 233 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They are playing a lot of youngsters right now and are all offense and no defense.  They rank 11th in pace and 27th in defensive rating during this stretch.  They have scored at least 120 points in five of their last eight games overall.

The Atlanta Hawks have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 2nd in pace this season.  They have added some firepower off the bench during before the trade deadline in LeVert, Niang and Mann that has made them even more of an OVER team.  The Hawks have scored at least 119 points in nine of their last 11 games.

The Hawks are 3-0 OVER in their last three games despite playing two dead nuts under teams in Brooklyn and Charlotte, plus playing the Warriors who were without Steph Curry.  Now they face another OVER team here in the 76ers, and the result should be an absolute shootout.

The Hawks won 132-123 for 255 combined points in their last meeting on March 10th two weeks ago.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with 239 or more combined points in all six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

03-22-25 Bulls +10 v. Lakers 146-115 Win 100 12 h 56 m Show

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +10

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now as they are fighting hard to make the playoffs.  The Bulls are 6-2 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses coming by 3 at Houston and by 6 at Phoenix.

They upset the Kings by 12 as 7.5-point road dogs, beat the Jazz by 14 as 4.5-point road favorites, beat the Nets by 6 as 2-point home favorites, upset the Pacers by 18 as 4-point home dogs, upset the Heat by 5 as 5-point road dogs and upset the Magic by 2 as 8.5-point road dogs.  They have beaten a lot of playoff teams during this stretch.

The Bulls are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They should be able to hang with the Lakers, who are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now with eight players on the injury report including questionable tags on both LeBron James and Rui Hachimura.  

The Lakers are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games and consistently getting too much respect.  They are also a tired team playing their 7th game in 10 days coming off three consecutive back-to-backs.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

03-22-25 Bulls v. Lakers OVER 234.5 Top 146-115 Win 100 12 h 0 m Show

20* Bulls/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  The OVER is 3-1 in Bulls last four games overall as they are coming off 248 combined points with Phoenix and 242 combined points with Sacramento.

The Los Angeles Lakers really profile as an OVER team since trading for Luka Doncic, once of the best scorers in the NBA but also one of the worst defenders.  We have seen that come to fruition with the Lakers going 4-1 OVER in the last five games in which Doncic has played.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in the last nine meetings between the Lakers and Bulls.  Los Angeles beat Chicago 141-132 for 273 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

03-22-25 Nets +10 v. Pacers 103-108 Win 100 5 h 17 m Show

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +10

This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Nets and Pacers.  The Pacers won 104-99 (OT) as 8-point favorites on Thursday.  Now the Pacers are 10-point favorites in the rematch, and I don't agree with the move towards them.

I always like taking the team that lost the 1st meeting in these 2nd in 3 days scenarios.  They are always the more motivated team, and they tend to get revenge or at the very least get the cover.

The Nets continue to show up every night despite their position in the Eastern Conference standings.  They gave the Celtics all they could handle twice in their last four games losing by 2 and 8 points, and they upset Atlanta as 6.5-point dogs in the game in between.  

The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games also losing to the Cavs by just 5 as 15-point dogs.  They also upset the Lakers and lost by 2 to the Warriors as 11.5-point dogs.  They haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 8 points despite a brutal schedule with eight of those nine games against teams currently in the playoffs.

The Pacers are a tired team playing their 6th game in 9 days.  The Nets will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days.  De'Angelo Russell will sit this game, but they do get back Cam Johnson to make up for it after Johnson didn't play in that 1st meeting with the Pacers.  Indiana will likely sit Tyrese Haliburton again.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

03-22-25 Nets v. Pacers UNDER 220 103-108 Win 100 5 h 15 m Show

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Pacers UNDER 220

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Nets and Pacers.  The Pacers won 105-99 (OT) on Thursday in a game that saw just 182 combined points at the end of regulation.  So we have 38 points to spare with this 220-point total in the rematch.

There's a good chance Tyrese Haliburton is out again for the Pacers.  Well, now the Nets are going to sit De'Angelo Russell.  So both teams could be without their floor generals for this one, which will throw both offenses off.

The Nets already rank dead last (30th) in pace and will play even slower without Russell.  They also rank 27th in offensive rating, making them a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Nets are 40-30 UNDER in all games this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 212 or fewer combined points in all three meetings this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

03-21-25 Grizzlies v. Clippers OVER 230.5 108-128 Win 100 21 h 50 m Show

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Clippers OVER 230.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in five consecutive games.  Now they play a Memphis Grizzlies team that hasn't played a lick of defense for weeks.  They have allowed 127 or more points in eight of those 17 games.

Memphis is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace.  They play fast with or without Ja Morant.  The OVER is 39-29-2 in all Grizzlies games this season.  They have combined for 237 or more points with their opponents in four of their last six games overall.

The Clippers are more of an OVER team now due to their improvement offensively.  They are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games with 236 or more combined points four times during this stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

03-21-25 Grizzlies v. Clippers -6.5 Top 108-128 Win 100 21 h 51 m Show

20* Grizzlies/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  A big reason for their success is a healthy return of Norman Powell and the trade for Bogdan Bogdanovic, surrounding Kawhi Leonard and James Harden with plenty of shooting.

The Clippers have thrived offensively scoring 119 or more points in five consecutive games.  Now they play a Memphis Grizzlies team that hasn't played a lick of defense for weeks.

The Grizzlies are 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall largely due to poor defense.  They have allowed 127 or more points in eight of those 17 games.  They are also without Ja Morant right now.

Memphis is also a tired team playing its 13th game in 22 days.  The Grizzlies haven't had two days off in a row since February.  Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on two days' rest and will be the fresher, healthier team tonight as a result.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

03-21-25 Nuggets v. Blazers -120 109-128 Win 100 12 h 46 m Show

15* Nuggets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland ML -120

The Portland Trail Blazers continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  They are only 2 games behind the Suns for the final play-in spot.  The Blazers have gone 18-11 SU & 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  

The Blazers are rested and will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the Denver Nuggets, a very tired team that will be playing their 8th game in 13 days.

That fatigue has really started to show down the stretch as the Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and the injuries are really starting to pile up.  They will be without Nikola Jokic tonight, Jamaal Murray is questionable, and Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are both dealing with nagging injuries.  Bet the Blazers on the Money Line Friday.

03-21-25 Celtics v. Jazz +14 121-99 Loss -108 11 h 42 m Show

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +14

The Boston Celtics are struggling to find motivation here down the stretch.  They are pretty much locked in to the No. 2 seed, trailing the Cavs by 6 games but 7 games ahead of 3rd-place New York.

The Celtics have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have two lackluster wins over the lowly Nets by 8 as 13.5-point favorites and by 2 as 11-point favorites.  They also only beat the Jazz by 6 as 16-point home favorites on March 10th.

Now it's the Jazz out for revenge and catching 14 points at home in the rematch here less than two weeks later.  The Jazz have gone 11-7 ATS in their last 18 games overall despite being without several key players along the way.  Despite the belief they are tanking, they continue to show up most nights, and they'll certainly show up for the defending champs tonight.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

03-21-25 Pelicans v. Wolves -13.5 93-134 Win 100 10 h 46 m Show

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -13.5

I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after a shocking 119-115 home loss as identical 13.5-point favorites to the Pelicans on Wednesday.  Now they get to host the Pelicans again.

Zion Williamson had 29 points and 8 assists in that first meeting.  Well, Williamson has been ruled out, leaving an already injury-ravaged Pelicans team even worse off heading into this one.  The Timberwolves are fully healthy.

New Orleans shot 53% as a team and 13-of-29 (45%) from 3-point range in that first meeting, so they are due some negative shooting regression.  The Timberwolves shot just 45% as a team and are due some positive shooting regression against a terrible Pelicans defense that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

03-21-25 76ers v. Spurs OVER 236.5 Top 120-128 Win 100 9 h 18 m Show

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Spurs OVER 236.5

The Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall while ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating during this stretch.  They have gone for 234 or more combined points with their opponents in 10 of those 11 games.

The Philadelphia 76ers are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are 7-1-1 OVER in their last nine games with 233 or more combined points in six of those nine games.  They rank 27th in defensive rating during this stretch.

Both teams have a lot of youngsters playing right now that are just trying to make a name for themselves, especially the 76ers.  Both are having fun and playing freely knowing they are eliminated from playoff contention.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

03-20-25 Bucks -2.5 v. Lakers Top 118-89 Win 100 22 h 41 m Show

20* Bucks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Milwaukee -2.5

This is a brutal spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days tonight.  They got revenge on the Nuggets for their last loss last night, and they are feeling fat and happy now heading into this game against Milwaukee.

That was a Nuggets team that was missing their two best players in Jokic and Murray.  Now it's the Lakers that could be missing their two best players.  LeBron James remains out, and Luka Doncic has been sitting on back-to-backs since coming to the Lakers.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if he sits tonight, and I like the Bucks either way.

While the Lakers are tired, fat and happy off three straight wins, the Bucks are rested and pissed off following two consecutive losses to the Thunder and Warriors, two teams playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  The Bucks also beat the Lakers 126-106 at home in their first meeting this season.  Doncic had 45 points and the Lakers still lost by 20!  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

03-20-25 Nets +9.5 v. Pacers 99-105 Win 100 18 h 2 m Show

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Pacers erased a 7-point deficit in the final minute last night to beat the Mavericks 135-131.  Now they are tired, fat and happy after that victory.  Not only will the Pacers be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back but they will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days.  They are running on fumes right now.

The Brooklyn Nets continue to show up every night despite their position in the Eastern Conference standings.  They gave the Celtics all they could handle twice in their last three games losing by 2 and 8 points, and they upset Atlanta as 6.5-point dogs in the game in between.  

The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games also losing to the Cavs by just 5 as 15-point dogs.  They also upset the Lakers and lost by 2 to the Warriors as 11.5-point dogs.  They haven't lost any of their last eight games by more than 8 points despite a brutal schedule with seven of those eight games against teams currently in the playoffs.  Bet the Nets Thursday.

03-19-25 Cavs v. Kings +5.5 119-123 Win 100 11 h 6 m Show

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5

Motivation is an issue for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 1 seed in the East leading the Celtics by 6.5 games.  They are playing like it too, going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with some very concerning results.  

The Cavs were upset by the Magic as 10-point favorites. They only beat Brooklyn by 5 as 15-point favorites, Charlotte by 1 as 16-point favorites and Miami by 5 as 13.5-point favorites.  They are grossly overvalued right now.

The Cavs are coming off a 132-119 road loss as 2.5-point favorites to the Clippers last night.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and could decide to rest some guys as a result.

The Kings have a big rest advantage playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with a 132-122 home win over the Grizzlies in between.  They have a lot to play for trying to hold on to a spot in the play-in leading the Suns by just 3 games.  I expect a big effort from Sacramento tonight.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

03-19-25 Grizzlies v. Blazers +5 99-115 Win 100 11 h 3 m Show

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +5

The Portland Trail Blazers are fighting hard to make the play-in.  They are 3 games behind the Mavericks for the final play-in spot in the West, and the Mavericks are tanking in a big way right now so they have a legit shot if they can overtake the Suns as well.

The Blazers have gone 17-11 SU & 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  They are rested and will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight hosting the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA here down the stretch, and it's largely due to all the injuries they are dealing with.  The Grizzlies are 7-9 SU & 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

The Grizzlies are a tired team playing their 12th game in 20 days.  They are without JA Morant, and Aldama and Pippen Jr. are both questionable tonight as well.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

03-19-25 Grizzlies v. Blazers OVER 235 99-115 Loss -110 11 h 52 m Show

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Blazers OVER 235

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dead nuts OVER team no matter who suits up for them.  They rank 1st in pace this season and play fast regardless of whether or not JA Morant plays.  They rank 6th in offensive rating this season to boot.

The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for at least 237 points in four of their last five games overall with the lone exception coming against a dead nuts under team in Miami.  They are coming off a 132-122 loss to the Kings for 254 combined points even without Morant, Alabama, Pippen Jr. and Sabonis.

The Blazers have some of the most talented young guards in the NBA and they are really blossoming down the stretch.  The Blazers have scored at least 112 points in 13 of their last 16 games overall.  I expect both teams to go for 120-plus tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

03-19-25 Bulls +6.5 v. Suns Top 121-127 Win 100 11 h 8 m Show

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +6.5

The Chicago Bulls are grossly undervalued right now.  They are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 as 8-point dogs at Houston.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in four road games during this stretch with two upset wins at Miami and Orlando.

The Phoenix Suns have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA all season.  They are 32-37 SU & 27-41-1 ATS this season.  Now they are without three key players in Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen and Mason Plumlee.  They are getting too much respect tonight as 6.5-point favorites over the Bulls.

Chicago has a big rest advantage as well.  The Bulls will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days, while the Suns will be playing their 7th game in 11 days.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

03-19-25 Cavs v. Kings OVER 235 Top 119-123 Win 100 11 h 6 m Show

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Kings OVER 235

The Cavs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 43-25 OVER in all games this season while ranking 1st in the NBA in offensive rating.  They just went for 251 points with the Clippers in their last game, a Clippers team that profiles as an under team.

The Sacramento Kings are 38-29 OVER in all games this season.  They have been dreadful defensively allowing 122 or more points in four straight games.  But they are hitting on all cylinders on offense, and I think they can keep up with the Cavs in a shootout tonight.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 246, 252 and 247 combined points in the three overs.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

03-19-25 Pelicans v. Wolves -13 Top 119-115 Loss -108 9 h 16 m Show

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -13

I like the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They took the short-handed Pacers lightly in their last game and lost 132-130 as 10.5-point favorites.  They won't make that same mistake again tonight after having their 8-game winning streak come to an end with that defeat.

The Timberwolves are fully healthy right now and motivated.  They sit in 7th place in the West and are desperate to get out of the play-in.  They only trail the 6th-place Warriors by 0.5 games.

The Pelicans are coming off a 127-81 home loss to the Detroit Pistons to fall to 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their best player in Trey Murphy (21.2 PPG) got hurt in that game and is now out for the season.  They are extremely short-handed now and unmotivated to finish out the season.  They will get blown out again tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

03-18-25 Cavs v. Clippers +4.5 Top 119-132 Win 100 13 h 56 m Show

20* Cavs/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are motivated to get out of the play-in and earn their way into the playoffs here down the stretch.  They are just one game behind the Warriors for the 6th seed and one game behind the Timberwolves, who sit in 7th.

What has me intrigued with the Clippers here down the stretch and especially tonight is the fact that they are as healthy as they have been all season.  Norman Powell and Kris Dunn are back from injury, and Bogdan Bogdanovic has been a huge get for them prior to the trade deadline as his shooting has really helped space the floor for Harden and Leonard.  This is a dangerous Clippers team that many are sleeping on.

Motivation is an issue for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 1 seed in the East leading the Celtics by 7.5 games.  They are playing like it too, going just 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with some very concerning results.  They were upset by the Magic as 10-point favorites last time out, they only beat Brooklyn by 5 as 15-point favorites, Charlotte by 1 as 16-point favorites and Miami by 5 as 13.5-point favorites.  They are grossly overvalued right now.  Bet the Clippers Tuesday.

03-18-25 Nets +13.5 v. Celtics 96-104 Win 100 10 h 2 m Show

15* Nets/Celtics NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +13.5

I love the spot for the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 115-113 as 11-point home dogs to Boston on Saturday.  The Nets are playing great here down the stretch and continue to show up every night. going 4-1 ATS in their last five games which includes a 5-point loss as 15-point dogs at Cleveland, an upset win over the Lakers and an upset win over the Hawks.

The Boston Celtics are struggling to find motivation right now as they are 7.5 games behind the Cavs for 1st place in the East and 5.5 games ahead of the Knicks, who sit in 3rd place.  So they are kind of locked in to the No. 2 seed in the East.  They have been resting guys accordingly.

The Celtics could be without their two best players tonight as Jaylen Brown has been ruled out, while Jayson Tatum is questionable.  Both guys played in that 2-point win over Brooklyn on Saturday.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

03-17-25 Spurs +8.5 v. Lakers 109-125 Loss -108 11 h 31 m Show

15* Spurs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +8.5

This is a tough spot for the Los Angeles Lakers who are without both LeBron James and Rui Hachimura right now.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a satisfying 107-96 home win over the Phoenix Suns last night.

It will also be the 4th game in 5 days for the Lakers, who won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Spurs as they were to beat the Suns, Nuggets and Bucks in the other three games during this stretch.  The Lakers are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall and struggling without James and Hachimura.

The Spurs continue to show up on a nightly basis and there's no question they will be motivated to beat the Lakers tonight.  The Spurs are 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Lakers with only one loss by more than 5 points in those six meetings.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

03-17-25 Spurs v. Lakers OVER 228 Top 109-125 Win 100 11 h 31 m Show

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Lakers OVER 228

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team right now going 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall with 234 or more combined points in all nine games.  They rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating in those nine games as they clearly miss Victor Wembenyama on that end.  They have allowed 127 or more points in six of those nine games.

The Los Angeles Lakers are not a good defensive team right now with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves running the show.  But they are plenty potent on offense to get in a shootout with the Spurs tonight.

The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings with 228 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

03-17-25 Wizards v. Blazers OVER 230 97-112 Loss -110 10 h 48 m Show

15* Wizards/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 230

The Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team as long as they have a healthy Jordan Poole, which is the case right now.  The Wizards rank 4th in pace and 28th in defensive rating this season.

The Wizards are coming off two consecutive shootout upset wins 129-125 at Detroit for 254 combined points and 126-123 at Denver for 249 combined points.  Poole and rookie Sarr are playing at a very high level right now offensively, but the Wizards still don't play much defense at all.

The Blazers are playing more small ball right now without two centers in Ayton and Williams.  I like the prospects of four youngsters in Simons, Sharpe, Avidja and Henderson leading the way for the Blazers.  They won't mind getting in a shootout with the Wizards tonight.

The Blazers beat the Wizards 129-121 for 250 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  These teams have combined for at least 229 points in seven of their last 10 meetings, and 225 or more in 12 of their last 13 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

03-17-25 Raptors +9 v. Suns Top 89-129 Loss -110 10 h 11 m Show

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors +9

The Toronto Raptors are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their two losses coming by 1 and 3 points.  They have pulled off three outright upsets on the road during this stretch.

The Phoenix Suns are 31-37 SU & 26-41-1 ATS this season and have been grossly overvalued all year.  They lost 107-96 on the road to the Lakers last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

They were already without Grayson Allen, and Bradley Beal left the game early and is questionable tonight.  The Raptors are a deep team that has battled injuries all season and continue to show up every night here down the stretch.  Asking the Suns to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Raptors Monday.

03-17-25 Wizards +6 v. Blazers Top 97-112 Loss -105 10 h 10 m Show

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +6

The Washington Wizards are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 games overall and clearly not worried about tanking.  They upset the Nuggets as 12-point road dogs and the Pistons as 13.5-point road dogs in their last two games coming in.

Now the Wizards are showing great value again tonight as 6-point road dogs to a Portland Trail Blazers team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a narrow 105-102 win over the Raptors last night.  

The Blazers are also dealing with some injuries right now and could rest more guys in this back-to-back situation.  Portland is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall and likely out of playoff contention at this point, so motivation will be a factor moving forward.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

03-17-25 Bulls v. Jazz OVER 241 111-97 Loss -108 9 h 19 m Show

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Jazz OVER 241

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 14-6 OVER in their last 20 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 13 of those 20 games.  They have had many different lineups during this stretch due to rest and injury, and they still keep going OVER.  They rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating this season.

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team as well.  They rank 3rd in pace and 24th in defensive rating this season.  They are thriving offensively right now scoring at least 114 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 243 or more combined points in three of those four meetings, including 261 in their first and only meeting thus far this season.  It should be another shootout in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

03-16-25 Jazz v. Wolves OVER 231.5 102-128 Loss -110 20 h 48 m Show

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Timberwolves OVER 231.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 14-5 OVER in their last 19 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 13 of those 19 games.  They have had many different lineups during this stretch due to rest and injury, and they still keep going OVER.  They rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive rating this season.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been going more small ball and are fully healthy right now with the exception of Mike Conley, which has led to more high-scoring games for them.  The OVER is 8-4 in Timberwolves last 12 games overall with 233 or more combined points in seven of those 12 games.

The OVER is 2-0 in two meetings between the Jazz and Timberwolves this season with 233 and 251 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

03-16-25 Suns +4 v. Lakers 96-107 Loss -105 16 h 13 m Show

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +4

The Phoenix Suns are just 1.5 games back of the injury-ravaged Dallas Mavericks in the play-in.  They also trail the Sacramento Kings by 2.5 games.  I think the Suns are undervalued right now because they have been such a poor ATS team all season that we are getting them at a discount as 4-point road underdogs here.

The Suns clearly continue to play hard to try and make the playoffs.  The are coming off a 122-106 home win over the Sacramento Kings who were fully healthy.  They played their previous four games on the road against current Western Conference playoff teams and they could have won all four.  They took Denver to OT, beat Dallas by 9, lost by 2 at Memphis and lost by 7 at Houston.

The Lakers are in a world of hurt without LeBron James (25.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 8.5 APG) and Rui Hachimura (13.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) right now.  They are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  Luke Doncic is a great player, but he cannot carry this team without James.  He has always needed a side kick.  The Lakers are just so poor defensively that they should not be favored here.  They allowed 126 to the Bucks and 131 to the Nuggets in their last two games coming in.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

03-16-25 Suns v. Lakers OVER 229.5 Top 96-107 Loss -110 17 h 31 m Show

20* Suns/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on OVER 229.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team right now with a healthy Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.  They are all offense and no defense.  They went for 257 combined points with the Nuggets and 232 with the Bucks in their last two games.

The Phoenix Suns are rolling offensively right now but they are a poor defensive team as well.  The Suns have scored at least 116 points in eight of their last 10 games, but they have allowed at least 116 points in 17 of their last 20 games.  The OVER is 14-8 in their last 22 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

03-15-25 Wizards +15.5 v. Nuggets 126-123 Win 100 22 h 34 m Show

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +15.5

This is a terrible spot for the Denver Nuggets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after needing a double-digit comeback to beat the Lakers 131-126 last night despite the Lakers being without both Doncic and James.  They just have a way of playing to their level of competition.

Even if everyone comes back and plays tonight for the Nuggets, they won't be all that motivated to beat the Wizards.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days and they have a huge game against the Warriors on deck that they could be looking ahead to.  I don't expect the Nuggets to put their best foot forward tonight.

The Wizards have been sneaking up on teams here of late and they continue to show up despite their position in last place the Eastern Conference standings.  They have gone 7-6 ATS in their last 13 games including a 129-125 upset win as 13.5-point dogs at Detroit last time out.  They will be up for this game against the Nuggets, and they are about as healthy as they have been all season right now.  

The Wizards pulled the 122-113 upset win as 11.5-point home dogs in their first meeting with the Nuggets this season.  Washington has lost by more than 14 points to Denver just twice in their last 15 meetings.  Bet the Wizards Saturday.

03-15-25 Pelicans v. Spurs OVER 234 115-119 Push 0 22 h 1 m Show

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Spurs OVER 234

The Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team right now going 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 236 or more combined points in all eight games.  They rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating in those eight games as they clearly miss Victor Wembenyama on that end.

That was on display last night as they lost 145-134 to the Hornets for 279 combined points.  They have completely let go of the rope defensively allowing 127 or more points in six of their last eight games.  Look for them to get in another shootout with the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

The Pelicans have plenty of offensive firepower with Murphy, McCollum, Brown and Olynyk and they play zero defense.  They rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.  The OVER is 6-3 in Pelicans last nine games overall with 233 or more combined points in six of those nine games, and 240 or more in five of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

03-15-25 Knicks v. Warriors UNDER 229.5 94-97 Win 100 21 h 20 m Show

15* Knicks/Warriors ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 229.5

The Knicks are without leading scorer Jalen Brunson (26.3 PPG, 7.4 APG) right now and are struggling offensively without him.  They were already struggling offensively since the All-Star Break with him in the lineup.  They have been a dead nuts UNDER team playing slower and upping their defensive intensity in recent weeks.

The UNDER is 7-2 in Knicks last nine games overall and would be 8-1 without OT.  They have gone to OT in three of their last six games.  They have gone for 228 or fewer combined points in 8 of those 9 games even with OT factored in.  The Knicks and their opponents have averaged 215.3 combined points per game at the end of regulation in their last nine games.  They rank 25th in pace, 25th in offensive rating and 8th in defensive rating during this 9-game stretch.

The Warriors are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games overall.  They are a better defensive team with Jimmy Butler and they were already a great defensive team.  They rank 8th in defensive rating on the season and 3rd in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  They rank in the middle of the pack in pace this season and haven't been playing any faster with Butler.

This is a rematch from less than two weeks ago when the Warriors beat the Knicks 114-102 on the road for just 216 combined points.  And neither team shot it terribly as the Warriors shot 49% from the field while the Knicks shot 45% and that was with Brunson in the lineup.  The Knicks and Warriors haven't topped 231 combined points at the end of regulation in any of their last 12 meetings, and they have finished with 228 or fewer in 10 of those 12 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

03-15-25 Bulls +10 v. Rockets 114-117 Win 100 22 h 36 m Show

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +10

The Chicago Bulls are the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference holding on to the final play-in spot.  But they have a great chance to improve their seeding as only 3.5 games separate the four play-in teams currently.  They are clearly fighting hard to try and improve their position.

Indeed, the Bulls are 6-5 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with only two losses by more than 5 points in those 11 games.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games upsetting Orlando as 7.5-point road dogs, Miami as 5-point road dogs, Indiana as 6-point home dogs and covering in a 6-point home win over Brooklyn.  What more do the Bulls have to do to get some respect?

They certainly aren't getting respect here as 10-point road dogs at Houston.  They are in the more favorable rest spot as well playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days after a home win over the short-handed Mavericks last night.  They are also without one of their best players in Amen Thompson (14.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.2 BPG) and could decide to rest another starter or two tonight.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

03-15-25 Pacers v. Bucks -3.5 Top 119-126 Win 100 23 h 29 m Show

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 115-114 at Indiana on Tuesday, March 11th on a 4-point play at the buzzer by Tyrese Haliburton.  Now they get to host the Pacers just four days later and they are in the much better spot tonight.

The Bucks had yesterday off following a 126-106 home win over the Lakers on Thursday.  Meanwhile, the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 112-100 win in Philadelphia last night.  The Pacers needed a big comeback to win that game so they were forced to play their starters big minutes.

Indiana is just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last four games overall consistently being overvalued.  They lost consecutive road games to the Hawks and followed it up with an 18-point loss at Chicago to fall to 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games.

Milwaukee was a 2.5-point road favorite at Indiana on Tuesday and now is just a 3.5-point home favorite in the rematch.  The books have not adjusted enough for flipping home courts and the fact that the Pacers are in a tough spot playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

03-14-25 Raptors v. Jazz OVER 234.5 126-118 Win 100 11 h 56 m Show

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Jazz OVER 234.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 13-5 OVER in their last 18 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 12 of those 18 games.  They have had many different lineups during this stretch due to rest and injury, and they still keep going OVER.

But now the Jazz are actually supposed to have all of their top plays available tonight with the exception of John Collins.  They should get themselves into another shootout with the Toronto Raptors, who are lacking size inside with Poeltl out.  But they have Barrett and Quickley healthy and playing, and those two guards are the key to them being an OVER team.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

03-14-25 Clippers v. Hawks OVER 233 121-98 Loss -110 9 h 3 m Show

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Clippers/Hawks OVER 233

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team as long as Trae Young is healthy, which he is right now and the Hawks in general are very healthy.  The Hawks and their opponents have combined for at least 233 points in eight consecutive games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 233-point total.

The Clippers are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall including 247 combined points with New Orleans, 238 without Detroit and 236 with Phoenix.  Adding Bogdanovic has really helped them out offensively and makes up for the loss of Norman Powell.  He scored 30 points last game and his shooting is a welcome addition to this offense.

The Clippers and Hawks have combined for at least 233 points in three of their last four meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

03-14-25 Pacers -12 v. 76ers Top 112-100 Push 0 9 h 46 m Show

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers -12

The Philadelphia 76ers are in full blown tank mode.  They've already shut down Embiid, George and Maxey and have seven played listed out tonight.  They have since added Oubre Jr. and Grimes to the injury report, and those were their two best remaining players.  They are questionable, as are Edwards, Drummond and Yabusele.

The 76ers are coming off a 13-point road loss at Toronto.  They will be playing their 4th game in 6 days which isn't good for being short-handed.  They must face a fully healthy Indiana Pacers team that will run them out of the building tonight.

The Pacers had lost three straight prior to beating the Bucks basically at the buzzer with a 4-point play.  Tyrese Haliburton returned from a 3-game absence to deliver said 4-point play.  They lost all three games without him, and they really go as he goes.  They are back to full strength now and have had the last two days off to rest and recover.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

03-13-25 Lakers v. Bucks -5.5 Top 106-126 Win 100 18 h 15 m Show

20* Lakers/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -5.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-13-25 Wizards +14.5 v. Pistons 129-125 Win 100 18 h 55 m Show

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +14.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-12-25 Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 234 115-95 Loss -110 14 h 40 m Show

15* Timberwolves/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-12-25 Jazz +12.5 v. Grizzlies 115-122 Win 100 12 h 32 m Show

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +12.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-12-25 Hornets +8.5 v. Hawks Top 110-123 Loss -108 11 h 20 m Show

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-11-25 Bucks v. Pacers OVER 232 114-115 Loss -110 20 h 40 m Show

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Pacers OVER 232

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-10-25 Knicks v. Kings UNDER 226.5 133-104 Loss -110 27 h 30 m Show

15* Knicks/Kings NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 226.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-10-25 Blazers v. Warriors -12 120-130 Loss -110 26 h 1 m Show

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Golden State Warriors -12

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-10-25 Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 241 140-127 Loss -110 24 h 1 m Show

15* Nuggets/Thunder NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 241

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-10-25 Wizards v. Raptors OVER 229.5 104-119 Loss -110 24 h 41 m Show

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Raptors OVER 229.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-10-25 76ers v. Hawks -8.5 123-132 Win 100 24 h 41 m Show

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -8.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-10-25 Lakers v. Nets +6 Top 108-111 Win 100 24 h 48 m Show

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +6

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-10-25 Hornets +9.5 v. Heat Top 105-102 Win 100 24 h 41 m Show

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +9.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

03-09-25 Cavs v. Bucks +9 112-100 Loss -108 9 h 30 m Show

15* Cavs/Bucks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee +9

The Cleveland Cavaliers are struggling to find much motivation since their big comeback win over the Celtics that basically cemented their spot in 1st place in the East.  They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games, and the one game they covered they were actually tied in the 4th quarter with the Bulls before pulling away late.

They only beat Charlotte by 1 as 16-point favorites, only beat Miami by 5 as 13.5-point favorites and needed OT to beat the Blazers as double-digit favorites.  They lead the Celtics by 7.5 games for 1st place and I think motivation will continue to be an issue for them the rest of the way.  I think you can fade them in every game and make money.

This line has been adjusted up too much for the Bucks playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They lost to the Magic at home yesterday so there's no travel involved as they are home again today.  They also had 2 days off prior to that loss to the Magic, so they should still be pretty fresh.

Giannis, Lillard and Kuzma have all been ruled in and this line has since crashed a little.  I expected them all to play which is why I grabbed the +9.  I think they were looking ahead to this game and overlooking the Magic yesterday.  The Bucks are 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with the two losses coming by 2 and 3 points.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

03-09-25 Spurs v. Wolves OVER 233 Top 124-141 Win 100 8 h 29 m Show

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Timberwolves OVER 233

The San Antonio Spurs are a dead nuts OVER team since losing Defensive Player of the Year favorite Victor Wembenyama to a season-ending injury.  They are going small ball and playing as fast as they can led by De'Aaron Fox.

The Spurs are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 258 points with Memphis, 278 with Oklahoma City and even 240 against a dead nuts under team in Brooklyn.  They also went for 236 combined points with the Kings in their last game, a Kings team that was missing two key starters in Sabonis and Monk.

The Timberwolves have had to go more small ball without Rudy Gobert who is questionable again tonight.  It has unlocked their offense, but they are obviously much worse off defensively.  The Timberwolves are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall going for 233 or more combined points in six of those nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

03-09-25 Suns -8 v. Mavs 125-116 Win 100 4 h 9 m Show

15* Suns/Mavericks ABC ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -8

The Phoenix Suns are showing that they are fighting to make the playoffs.  They had a 20-point comeback to beat the Clippers two games ago, and they took the Nuggets to overtime on the road in their last game.

Now the Suns are in a must-win situation today because they play the team they are trailing to make the play-in in the Dallas Mavericks.  They are 2.5 games behind the Mavericks for that last play-in spot.

The Mavericks have a whopping 10 players on the injury report heading into this game with 8 of them ruled out.  They are basically fielding a G League team right now.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight blowout losses by 11 points or more.  I don't see them keeping this game competitive against the Suns today, either.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

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