15* NBA Cup Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Miami Heat PK

The loss of Franz Wagner (22.7 PPG) is a huge blow to the Magic.  They are much easier to defend without him.  They have also been playing much slower since Paulo Blanchero returned from injury, and they have been worse with him than without him.  Jalen Suggs (14.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) is also dealing with a knee injury that he will be playing through.

The Heat are fully healthy for this game and want revenge on the Magic after two losses in Orlando already this season by a combined 5 points.  That includes their 106-105 loss in Orlando on December 5th just four days ago.  The ultimate revenge would be to win this NBA Cup Game, and I like their chances given the injury advantage.

Wagner had 24 points in the first meeting and 32 points in the second meeting with the Heat.  Losing all that production will be too tough for the Magic to overcome tonight.  The Heat have had the last two days off while the Magic just played in New York on Sunday in the game Wagner got hurt.  The rest, health, and motivational advantages have me on Miami in this one.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

20* Heat/Magic NBA Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 240.5

I released this total on Sunday when I found out Franz Wagner was injured for the Magic.  I was already going to be on the UNDER either way, but this total has been bet down since as I expected.  I would still play it as a 20* at 235 or higher, and a 15* at anything less than that.

The NBA Cup and the NBA Playoffs are where teams actually try hard on defense.  The books opened this total at a number that is in line with what it would be for any regular season game.  But this isn't just any regular season game, teams have to win to advance and there's real money on the line.

The loss of Wagner (22.7 PPG) is a huge blow to the Magic.  They are much easier to defend without him.  They have also been playing much slower since Paulo Blanchero returned from injury, and they have been worse with him than without him.  Jalen Suggs (14.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) is also dealing with a knee injury that he will be playing through.

The Heat are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall and have been playing a little slower here of late as it was going to be tough to keep up that pace all season.  The Magic want to play slower tonight, and they will likely control the tempo playing at home.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will actually be the rd meeting of the season already between Miami and Orlando.  These teams just played on December 5th in Orlando with the Magic winning 106-105 for just 211 combined points.  This total cannot be set this high in the rematch here just four days later with defensive intensity turned up to the max.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +9.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  They have their NBA Cup quarterfinal game on deck against the Lakers Wednesday.  They will be overlooking the Pelicans and looking ahead to the Lakers and will not put their best foot forward tonight.  That will make it very difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

The Pelicans continue to play hard despite a tough season to this point.  They have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  These are the types of teams you can make money on in the NBA that have poor records but show up every night.

The Pelicans want revenge from a pair of close losses to the Spurs already this season by 4 in OT at home and by 7 on the road.  Victor Wembenyama played in both of those games for the Spurs.  Now they won't have him, and the Pelicans should easily stay within this inflated number tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Pelicans OVER 236.5

The Spurs are having to play more small ball without Victor Wembenyama.  The result has been a 4-1 OVER run with 247, 245, 237 and 273 combined points in the four OVERS.  I question their defensive intensity for this game with an NBA Cup game on deck Wednesday.

The Pelicans are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense.  The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in five of those seven games.  The Pelicans have been OVER machines at home, going 7-1 OVER in their last eight home games.

The Spurs beat the Pelicans 126-119 at home for 245 combined points in their last meeting on November 8th.  Zion Williams didn't play in that game either.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Lakers/76ers NBA No-Brainer on OVER 232.5

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team going 16-6 OVER in all games this season.  They get Luka Doncic back and should be at full strength with the exception of Marcus Smart, who is one of their best defenders but they don't miss anything with him on offense.

The 76ers will be about as healthy as they have been all season tonight.  They will have Paul George and Joel Embiid available today to go along with Maxey, Edgecombe and Grimes.  They are primed for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season with all of these guys available.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Mavs OVER 223

The Mavericks scored 120.5 points per game in their four games prior to facing the top defensive team in the NBA in the Thunder last night in a 132-111 loss.  They are finding some great chemistry with Flagg, Nembhard and Davis in the lineup.  Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24, 22 and 16 points in his last four games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat. 

Because of the blowout nature of that loss to the Thunder, no starter even played 30 minutes for the Mavericks.  They should still be very fresh tonight and ready to run.  Anthony Davis has said he will play even though it's the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They will likely still be without Lively II and Gafford, their two big men who are key for them defensively.  They have had to go more small ball without them which is why they are 4-1 OVER in their last five games with 224 or more combined points in all five.

The Rockets are coming off a 117-98 home win over the Suns last night.  The blowout nature of that win also allowed the Rockets to rest their starters in the 4th.  It was a disastrous shooting game for the Suns who were without Devin Booker.  The Suns shot 39% from the floor and 5-of-36 (14%) from 3-point range which kept it under the total.

Steven Adams has already been ruled out for this game on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The Rockets will have to go more small ball tonight, which will favor the OVER.  They could also get Alperun Sengun back from an illness that kept him out last night.  The Rockets rank 4th in offensive rating this season.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace and will control the tempo at home tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Mavs/Thunder NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

The Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now due to injuries to three of their best defenders in Dort, Caruso and Hartenstein.  The Thunder are 3-0 OVER in their last three games going for 242 combined points with Phoenix, 238 with Portland and 236 with the Warriors, who were without Stephen Curry.  They don't miss a beat offensively without those three and are actually better on that end, but they don't defend nearly as well.

The Mavericks have scored 120.5 points per game in their last four games and are finding some great chemistry with Flagg, Nembhard and Davis in the lineup.  Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists last game against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists the game prior against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24 and 22 points in his last three games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat in his last two games.  

This trio is good enough to keep the Mavericks competitive for four quarters tonight as they keep up with the Thunder in a shootout.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace this season as they have had a change in philosophy to play much faster.  They are also without their two big men in Lively II and Gafford, which makes them play more small ball which favors the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +15.5

There has been a lot of talk recently about the Oklahoma City Thunder and possibly setting the NBA record for most wins in a season after a 21-1 start.  With that hype and attention comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very tough to live up to.

We have seen that play out recently as the Thunder are 1-3 ATS in their last four games needing a late run to win by 12 as 11-point favorites against the Warriors without Curry last time out in their lone cover.  They won by 8 over Minnesota as 10.5-point favorites, by 4 over Phoenix as 14.5-point favorites and by 8 over Portland as 11.5-point favorites.  So they have four straight wins by 12 points or fewer.

A big reason the Thunder are struggling to get margin is also due to injuries to three very underrated players in Hartenstein, Dort and Caruso.  Those are three of their best defenders especially the latter two, and they just aren't guarding teams as well.

The Mavericks have proven just how competitive they can be when Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg and Ryan Nembhard are all healthy and playing at the same time.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with a 4-point loss at Miami, a 10-point loss at LA Lakers, a upset win as 9-point dogs at LA Clippers, a upset win by 10 as 11-point dogs at Denver and a upset win by 10 as 4.5-point home dogs to Miami.

Nembhard had 15 points and 13 assists last game against Miami and he had 28 points and 10 assists the game prior against Denver.  Flagg has had 35, 24 and 22 points in his last three games.  Davis had 32 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets and 17 points and 17 rebounds against the Heat in his last two games.  This trio is good enough to keep the Mavericks competitive for four quarters tonight.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks ML +105

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  Giannis went out after 3 minutes with another calf injury in their last game, and the Bucks still went on to upset the Pistons 113-109.  They are better equipped to handle playing without Giannis right now than they were earlier.

Kevin Porter Jr. recently returned from injury and is an elite scorer.  He had 26 points against the Pistons and 30 the game prior.  Ryan Rollins has been a pleasant surprise and is one of the most improved players in the NBA.  Myles Turner is one of the best big man in the game, AJ Green is a sharp shooter, and the Bucks still have Kuzma and Portis coming off the bench to provide scoring.

The spot is a terrible one for the 76ers.  They hit the game-winner with 0.6 seconds left last night to beat the short-handed Warriors 99-98, a Warriors team that was playing without Curry and Butler while Green only played 9 minutes before going out with injury.  The fact that they still struggled to win that game says a lot.

Now the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be without Embiid, Oubre and possibly George and others.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.  The Bucks also want revenge from a 123-114 (OT) home loss to the 76ers on November 20th without Giannis.  The Bucks are still 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the 76ers.  Bet the Bucks on the Money Line Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Knicks OVER 238.5

The Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace and 26th in defensive rating.  The Knicks rank 4th in offensive rating and just 15th in defensive rating.  The Knicks are an elite offensive team this season under new head coach Mike Brown, but they have slipped a lot defensively.

The Jazz are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in eight of those 11 games.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games on the 2nd of a back-to-back going for 280 combined points with Indiana at the end of regulation, 251 points with the Warriors and 258 points with the Rockets.  They tend to not miss a beat offensively in these situations and relax even more on defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT Nuggets/Hawks OVER 237.5

The Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  The Nuggets rank 1st in the entire NBA in offensive rating, but their defense has taken a major hit.  The Nuggets are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 240 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  They have scored at least 121 points in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  This total of 237.5 is very short for a game involving Denver right now.

Atlanta got good news today with both Jalen Johnson (23.2 PPG) and Kristaps Porzingis (18.7 PPG) participating in shootaround, meaning both are likely to return from injury.  They have missed them playing a pair of low-scoring games in a row in losses to the Clippers and Pistons.  But with them likely back, the Hawks transform into much more of an OVER team with what those two bring to the table offensively.

The Hawks went 8-2 OVER in their previous 10 games in which Johnson played almost all of them, and Porzingis many of them.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Hawks and Nuggets finishing with 251 or more combined points in each of their last four.  This total of 237.5 is very low given the head-to-head history as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Magic OVER 239.5

The Magic are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 254, 267, 247 and 245 combined points in four of their last six games.  Suggs, Wagner and Bane have been playing elite basketball on the offensive end, and now Banchero is back tonight to make the Magic one of the most potent offensive teams in the NBA.

The Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season.  They get leading scorer Norman Powell (25.0 PPG, 45.8% 3-pointers) back from injury tonight and their offense is just so much more potent with him in the lineup.  They missed him last game shooting just 40% from the floor and 11-of-37 (30%) from 3 in a loss at Dallas.

The Magic beat the Heat 125-121 for 246 combined points in their first and only meeting this season.  Powell had 28 points to lead the way for the Heat.  Wagner (24), Banchero (24), Bane (23) and Suggs (14) all had solid games for the Magic.  Neither team shot lights out with the Heat at 48% overall and 34% from 3 and the Magic at 47% overall and 40% from 3.  There's actually room for more in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +12

I love the spot for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  They want revenge from a 149-142 (OT) home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday.  They get their shot at revenge here two days later and the line is basically the same as they were 12.5-point dogs in the first meeting.

This line hasn't been adjusted enough down for the fact that the Pelicans will be the much more motivated team in the rematch.  The Timberwolves will likely just be going through the motions for this one.  They have just one win by more than 11 points in their last seven games, going 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS in those seven games.  The Pelicans have quietly gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Pelicans OVER 232.5

The Pelicans are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall and coming off 254 combined points with the Lakers and 291 with the Timberwolves, with 258 at the end of regulation.  New Orleans is 6-1 OVER in its last seven home games finishing with 235 or more combined points in five of their last six home games.  The Pelicans rank 29th in defensive rating this season.

The Timberwolves have gone OVER the total in their last threegames finishing with 237 combined points with San Antonio, 234 with Boston and 258 at the end of regulation with the Pelicans.  They have improved drastically on offense ranking 6th in offensive rating this season, largely due to bringing Mike Conley off the bench instead of starting him.  They play a lot faster without him running the offense.

This will be a rematch from Tuesday when the Timberwolves beat the Pelicans 149-142 (OT) in a game that was at 258 combined points at the end of regulation.  We have a lot of room to spare here in the rematch with this OVER 232.5.  

The Pelicans have to play more small ball without Missi and Zion, so they are basically playing four guards around electric rookie Derick Queen.  He had 21 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists in that first meeting as four starters scored at least 21 points for the Pelicans.  It should be more of the same tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are 8-0 SU in their last eight home games.  It will be an electric atmosphere in Toronto tonight with the Los Angeles Lakers coming to town.  I fully expect the Raptors to win and cover tonight for their 9th consecutive home win.

The Lakers will be without Luka Doncic (35.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 8.9 APG) tonight due to personal reasons.  LeBron James is far from 100%, and the Lakers are going to be lost without Doncic tonight.  He is worth more to the spread for them than is being factored into this line.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Mavericks OVER 239.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in pace this season by a wide margin.  They went for 263 combined points with the Clippers and 273 with the Pistons in their last two games.  They have gone for 239 or more combined points in five of their last six road games.

The Mavericks have changed their philosophy to play faster this season just like the Heat.  The Mavericks rank 6th in pace and have two young guards playing well in Flagg and Nembhard.  They just got Anthony Davis back, and both games with Davis in the lineup were very high-scoring as they combined for 248 points with the Lakers and 252 with the Nuggets.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Rockets OVER 230.5

The Kings rank 25th in defensive rating this season and will be up against a Houston Rockets team that ranks 2nd in offensive rating behind only the Nuggets.  It's safe to say the Rockets are going to hang a big number on the Kings, who will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout in this one.

The Rockets are 11-7 OVER in all games this season averaging 233 combined points with their opponents.  The Kings and their opponents are averaging 237.7 combined points on the road this season.  The Kings and Rockets have combined for at least 230 points in 11 of their last 15 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Pistons/Bucks OVER 229.5

The Bucks are an OVER team as long as Giannis is healthy and on the court.  He is healthy right now, and Kevin Porter Jr. recently returned to the lineup to give them even more scoring punch.  Those two combined for 56 points in a 129-126 loss at Washington in their last game for 255 combined points.

The Detroit Pistons are fully healthy for the first time all season and a deadly offensive team when that's the case.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  The Pistons and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in seven of their last nine games overall, so this total of 230.5 is pretty short for a game involving them right now.

What really stands out is the high-scoring head-to-head history between the Pistons and Bucks as neither team came stop one another.  Indeed, the OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings with 235 or more combined points in all 11 meetings.  That makes for an 11-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Pacers OVER 236.5

The Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  The Nuggets rank 1st in the entire NBA in offensive rating, but their defense has taken a major hit.  The Nuggets are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 240 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They have scored at least 121 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.

The Pacers rank 11th in pace and are still trying to play faster even without Tyrese Haliburton.  They are coming off a 135-119 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers for 254 combined points.  You can just imagine what this Denver offense is going to do to them tonight, and they will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +5.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming to the Nuggets.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four road games during this stretch.  They are actually playing better without JA Morant.

Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. have been dominant inside for the Grizzlies.  And they will have a huge advantage with those two in the paint over the Spurs, who remain without Victor Wembenyama and Stephon Castle.  They are playing Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk big minutes because of it, and that is the worst big man combo in the NBA.

I also think the Spurs in a letdown spot of the schedule.  They miraculously pulled off the 139-136 win in Denver against the short-handed Nuggets to clinch their spot in the NBA Cup quarterfinals.  They promptly lost at Minnesota 125-112 their next time out, and they won't be motivated to beat the Grizzlies tonight, either.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be dealing with the distractions of missing Thanksgiving on the highway and trying to make up for it back home.  Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall and coming off 254 combined points with the Lakers.  New Orleans is 5-1 OVER in its last six home games finishing with 235 or more combined points in four of their last five home games.  The Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating this season.

The Timberwolves have gone OVER the total in their last two games finishing with 237 combined points with San Antonio and 234 with Boston.  They have improved drastically on offense ranking 8th in offensive rating this season, largely due to bringing Mike Conley off the bench instead of starting him.  They play a lot faster without him running the offense.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Pelicans and Timberwolves.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Suns/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 13-6 OVER in all games this season, including 4-1 OVER in their last five games combining for 248 or more points in four of those five.  The only game that went under was a home-and-home situation against the Jazz in the 2nd meeting with familiarity leading to it.

The Lakers are a perfect 9-0 OVER at home this season finishing with 228 or more combined points in all nine home games, and 234 or more combined points in each of their last six home games.

The Suns profile as more of an OVER team in their current state.  They just got Grayson Allen back in the lineup and they have been without his scoring for seven games.  Allen takes a lot of pressure off Devin Booker to provide the offense.  Mark Williams is healthy and great on the offensive end as well.

The Suns are 2-0 OVER in their last two games combining for 242 points with the Thunder and 242 points with the Nuggets.  It will be more of the same tonight in a shootout with the Lakers.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Mavs/Nuggets OVER 233

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team without their best defender in Aaron Gordon.  They are all offense and no defense right now.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall going for 240 or more combined points in all four games.

Nikola Jokic has been dominant again this season leading the Nuggets to ranking 1st place in offensive rating, scoring 123.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Nuggets have now scored 122 or more points in nine of their last 10 and 12 of their last 14 games overall.  They are a wagon on offense this season.

The Mavericks have turned into more of an OVER team this season ranking 6th in pace as Jason Kidd has embraced playing with more pace.  The injury report also makes the Mavs more of an OVER team right now playing without two big men in Lively II and Gafford, which makes them play more small ball.  Anthony Davis is back healthy and will form a great 1-2 punch with Cooper Flagg on the offensive end when he's in the lineup.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Magic OVER 239

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season playing as fast as possible.  In their last two meetings with the Magic last season they combined for 252 and 248 points.

The Magic have transformed into a dead nuts OVER team without Paulo Banchero.  They have to play more small ball and they play a lot faster while also sharing the ball more.  The Magic are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 230 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  They went for 247 combined points with Philadelphia, 267 with Boston and 254 with New York in three of their last four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -6

The Miami Heat are 13-7 SU & 12-8 ATS this season.  They are as healthy as they have been all year right now and primed for a big effort tonight hosting the Los Angeles Clippers, who are 5-15 SU & 5-15 ATS.  The Clippers have been the most disappointing team in the NBA, and they are not healthy at all right now.

The Heat are without Beal, Jones Jr. and Bogdanovic.  They are coming off consecutive upset home losses to two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Mavericks and Grizzlies, who were both short-handed when they beat them as well.  They have now lost four straight with the other two being blowout road losses to the Lakers by 17 and Cavs by 15.  Another blowout road loss will be their fate tonight.  Bet the Heat Monday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets/Jazz OVER 232

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating. The Jazz are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 247 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  

The Jazz are 8-2 OVER in their 10 home games scoring 128.4 points per game and allowing 127.6 points per game, combining to average 256 points per game.  This total of 232 is very short for a Utah home game.

That's especially the case when you consider the Rockets will be getting back leading scorer Kevin Durant (24.6 PPG) from a 2-game absence due to a family matter today.  The Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive rating scoring 122 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets are without Finney-Smith, Eason and could be without Adams who is questionable, and those are three of their best defenders.  It means more playing time for scorers in Sheppard and Holiday.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Rockets and Jazz finishing with 231 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings, including 239 or more in six of them.  This is also a very low total for this matchup.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3.5

This is a terrible spot for the Detroit Pistons.  They had their 13-game winning streak snapped with a 3-point loss at Boston.  Then last night they had their hopes of winning the NBA Cup come to a painful end with a 3-point home loss to the Orlando Magic.  

I don't expect the Pistons to show up at all tonight, and there's a chance they rest some guys playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and in their 5th different city in 8 days.  Cade Cunningham played 40 minutes last night and is a real candidate to sit out.  Four of five starters played at least 30 minutes.

The Heat are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season with Tyler Herro (26.5 PPG) returning for the last two games and forming chemistry with his new teammates in this new up-tempo scheme that fits him well.  The Heat are fully healthy now with Powell and Wiggins back and only Jacquez listed as questionable.  He has played in all 19 games this season despite popping up on the injury report multiple times so he is likely to go.

Miami playing at the fastest-pace in the entire NBA will certainly test these tired Detroit legs.  This is one of my favorite spots of the entire season so far, and I fully expect the Heat to win in a blowout.  Bet the Heat Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Jazz OVER 242

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 5th in pace and 27th in defensive rating.  The Kings also profile as an OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 24th in defensive rating.  This figures to be one of the biggest shootouts of the season tonight especially with both teams playing relaxed basketball after already being eliminated from advancing in the NBA Cup.

The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 251 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  The Jazz are 7-2 OVER in their nine home games scoring 128.4 points per game and allowing 128.6 points per game, combining to average 257 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -3

I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight.  They finally had their 13-game winning streak come to an end with a 117-114 loss in Boston.  But it will take zero effort for them to refocus here considering this is a must-win for them if they want to advance in the NBA Cup.

It's not a must-win game for Orlando, although they'd rather win this game than rely on point differential to advance.  But the Magic are in great position from a point differential perspective at +61 during their 3-0 start.  So they can still lose this game and advance on point differential as as none of the contenders are within 28 points of them.  In the back of their minds they know they are advancing either way.

The Pistons are 7-1 at home this season while the Magic are just 4-5 on the road.  The Pistons beat the Magic 135-116 in their last home meeting on October 29th earlier this season.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -8.5

The New York Knicks (2-1) are max motivated tonight.  They need to win to capture Group C, otherwise they will be eliminated.  They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Miami Heat (3-1).

The Milwaukee Bucks (2-1) lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Heat so their only chance of advancing is on point differential.  But they know they are essentially eliminated unless they win this game by 50, which isn't happening.  They are only +13 in point differential and trailing everyone above them by anywhere from 11 to 48 points.  They also need both Cleveland and Detroit to lose tonight, and both are favored.

Knowing their fate is pretty much already sealed, I don't expect the Bucks to bring back Giannis tonight.  He was questionable in their last NBA Cup game and didn't play, losing at Miami to lose out on the tiebreaker with the Heat now.  That was basically their 'last stand' in this tournament, and they won't be all that motivated knowing they won it all last year.

The Knicks are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Bucks.  Bet the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  They weren't impressive the game prior either with a 3-point win over the Hornets as 8-point home favorites.  I'll gladly back the more motivated team looking for as big of a blowout as possible.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Hawks OVER 236.5

This is a must-win game for the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Raptors have clinched Group A in the NBA Cup with a 4-0 record.  The Cavaliers' only chance to advance is on point differential, so they not only need to win but have massive incentive to win by margin.  They have a +33 point differential trailing Miami (+49), which is 3-1 and locked into that point differential.  At the very least they need to win this game by 16-plus points to catch Miami.

The Atlanta Hawks have already been eliminated from advancing with a 1-2 record.  I question their motivation as a result.  They are coming off a 132-113 road loss to Washington as 11-point favorites in their last NBA Cup game to get eliminated.  I question how much they'll be motivated to play defense tonight knowing they are already eliminated.  Meanwhile, the Cavs should be playing as fast as possible to win by as much as possible.  That will benefit the OVER tonight.  

The Hawks are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall.  The Cavs rank 7th in pace while the Hawks rank 10th, so these are two Top 10 teams in pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans rank 25th in defensive rating this season.  They are a very poor defensive team, but they are more of an OVER team when Zion Williamson (22.4 PPG) is healthy like he is tonight.  Throw in Derik Queen (12.4 PPG) and Trey Murphy (20.2 PPG), and the Pelicans have some offensive punch.

They are coming off a 143-130 win over the Bulls for 273 combined points.  They have been eliminated from NBA Cup contention after a 0-3 start where they have allowed an average of 121 points per game.  They won't be playing with much defensive intensity tonight as a result.

The Grizzlies are 1-1 in Group Play with an outside shot of advancing.  They have a +9 point differential, and if they win out they would have a chance of advancing on point differential, which is their only hope now that the Lakers clinched 1st place in Group B.  They have motivation to run the score up, so they will keep the foot on the gas for four quarters to improve their point differential.

The Grizzlies rank 11th in pace and 18th in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 125-115 loss to the Nuggets for 240 combined points.  This total of 234 is pretty short for a game involving the Grizzlies and Pelicans, especially when you look at their head-to-head history.  Indeed, the OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings finishing with 250, 263 and 256 combined points in the three overs.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Bucks/Heat NBA ANNIHILATOR on OVER 236.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in pace this season.  They should only be an even more potent offensive team moving forward with Tyler Herro back healthy.  Norman Powell is also expected to play tonight, so they will be potent tonight in particular.

The Heat are also motivated to win by margin so they won't be taking their foot off the gas for four quarters.  Point differential is a tiebreaker in the NBA Cup, so they want to win by as many points as possible as we've seen that play out with a +46 point differential in their 2-1 start this season.

The Bucks won't give up if they are down big because of that point differential tiebreak and a 2-0 start in the NBA Cup.  There's also a good chance they get a healthy Giannis for this one as he has been upgraded to questionable, and players that get upgraded to questionable usually play.  This total will skyrocket up if he's ruled in, and I like it even if he's not.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Raptors OVER 234.5

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  They have gotten healthier here of late to give their offense some punch with the healthy returns of Mathurin (24.3 PPG) and McConnell.  Having McConnell back is big because they run a lot faster with him in the lineup.

The Pacers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 239 or more combined points four times.  One of those was against these Pistons in a 127-112 loss for 239 combined points.  Detroit didn't even have Cade Cunningham in this game and still scored 127 points on this pathetic Indiana defense.

The Raptors also profile as an OVER team ranking 6th in offensive rating and 13th in pace.  What I really like about this OVER is the fact that the Pacers have already clinched 1st place in Group A in the NBA Cup and will be advancing no matter what.  I think they will relax their defensive intensity as a result, and this game will be played at max pace with little defense as a result.  

This will be the 2nd meeting of the season.  The Raptors won 129-111 for 240 combined points on November 15th.  Keep in mind the Pacers didn't have Mathurin for that game and were severely short-handed.  The Raptors only shot 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range and still scored 129 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Knicks/Hornets OVER 238

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (21.2 PPG, 9.3 APG) is healthy and in the lineup.  The Hornets are 7-3 OVER in games in which Ball has played finishing with 245 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.

The Hornets play faster and much more efficiently with Ball in the lineup.  And now Brandon Miller (16.7 PPG) is back healthy, so this will be one of the few games they have both Miller and Ball healthy at the same time this season.  Add in rookie Knueppel (19.4 PPG) and F Bridges (22.0 PPG), and the Hornets have a potent offense.  They are poor defensively either way.

The Knicks sit at 1-1 in the NBA Cup with a -2 point differential.  They need to improve that point differential while winning this game, so they will be keeping the foot on the gas for four quarters.  They know this poor Charlotte defense is the perfect time for them to score as many points as possible, and they will be looking to take advantage.

The Knicks rank 3rd in offensive rating this season with an elite offense.  They are also without their best defender in OG Anunoby.  They profile as a dead nuts OVER team and have gone 10-6 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Pistons/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Detroit -2.5

The Detroit Pistons are 13-0 in their last 13 games overall.  What has been impressive is that they have dealt with several injuries during this streak.  But now they are as healthy as they have been all season with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Tobias Harris all back in the lineup now.  They may legitimately be the best team in the East.

They are certainly better than the Boston Celtics, and they will be the more motivated team tonight.  They are not only motivated to extend this winning streak to 14 games, but more importantly to win Group B in the NBA Cup.  A win would put them at 3-0 alongside the Orlando Magic, who have a +61 point differential compared to their +27.  They also want to assure that their point differential is as good as possible because if they end up losing to the Magic in their next game, they would still advance based on point differential.

The Celtics have basically been eliminated from advancing in the NBA Cup due to their 1-2 start.  They can get to 2-2, but that wouldn't be good enough to advance, especially since they have a -20 point differential right now.  They know it and will be lacking motivation as a result.  They will also be without their best defender in C Neemias Queta (9.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG), so the Pistons should get whatever they want at the rim.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Magic/76ers NBC No-Brainer on OVER 228

The Magic have turned into a dead nuts OVER team since losing Paulo Banchero to injury.  The ball no longer sticks in his hands in isolation, and the Magic play with a lot more movement and a lot more ball sharing which sets up better looks.  They are also playing a lot faster without him.

The Magic are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall.  They have gone for 230 or more combined points in all five games, so this total of 228 is pretty short for a game involving the Magic right now.  That includes 267 combined points with the Celtics and 254 with the Knicks in their last two games coming in.

The Philadelphia 76ers are led by Tyrese Maxey who is having a MVP-caliber season.  He had 54 points in a 123-114 win at Milwaukee, and came back with 27 points in a 127-117 loss to the Heat the next night.  They are going to have to go more small ball tonight without Joel Embiid and will have no problem running with the Magic.

This is a rematch from a 136-124 win by Philadelphia for 260 combined points on October 27th in their first meeting this season.  The Magic only shot 8-of-35 (32%) from 3-point range in that game while the 76ers had pretty much a normal night of shooting.  Oddsmakers have failed to adjust up enough for the change in style for the Magic without Banchero.  Point differential is a tiebreaker in the NBA Cup so whoever is leading late won't take their foot off the gas.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Cup TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Wizards OVER 236

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They play fast and they don't stop anyone, which leads to a lot of high-scoring games.

The Wizards and their opponents have combined for at least 235 points in seven of their last nine games overall, so this total of 236 is pretty short for a game involving Washington.  Atlanta is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 232 or more combined points in five of those seven games, so it's also pretty short for a game involving the Hawks.

The Hawks have motivation to keep trying to run up the score late as point differential is a tiebreaker.  I don't think they'll take their foot off the gas, and the Wizards will gladly run with them.  The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine meetings finishing with 236 or more combined points in eight of those nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bulls/Pelicans OVER 244

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-6 OVER in all games this season while ranking 2nd in pace.  They are going to play even faster now that Coby White is healthy and in the lineup.  He and Josh Giddey will keep these Bulls running as fast as possible as long as they are on the court.

The Pelicans rank 27th in defensive rating this season.  They are a very poor defensive team, but they are more of an OVER team when Zion Williamson (21.4 PPG) is healthy like he is tonight.  Throw in Derik Queen (12.6 PPG) and Trey Murphy (20.2 PPG), and the Pelicans have some offensive punch.  They will get their points against the Bulls tonight and gladly run with them.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Bulls and Pelicans.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pistons/Pacers OVER 235.5

The Pistons are 5-1 OVER in their last six games while scoring at least 120 points in five of those six games.  They rank 8th in the NBA on offensive rating and get even more reinforcements now with PG Jaden Ivey and SG Caris LeVert returning to the lineup tonight.

The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 9th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating.  They have gotten healthier here of late to give their offense some punch with the healthy returns of Mathurin (26.4 PPG) and McConnell.  Having McConnell back is big because they run a lot faster with him in the lineup.

The Pacers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 239 or more combined points three times.  One of those was against these Pistons in a 127-112 loss for 239 combined points.  Detroit didn't even have Cade Cunningham in this game and still scored 127 points.

What really stood out as well was the Pistons shot 9-of-35 (26%) from 3-point range while the Pacers shot just 9-of-31 (29%) from 3-point range in that first meeting.  So they got to 239 combined points despite the injuries and poor shooting, so there's actually a ton of room for more points here in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Jazz OVER 244

The Jazz are 5-0 OVER in their last five games combining for 266 points with the Thunder, 266 with the Lakers, 254 with the Bulls at the end of regulation, 254 with the Hawks and 270 with the Pacers.  The Jazz rank 6th in pace and 27th in defensive rating, and as long as Markkanen is healthy and playing the Jazz are a pretty solid offensive team as well.

What has really stood out is just how high-scoring these Utah games have been when they are at home in Salt Lake City and dictating the pace.  Opposing teams tend to get more tired in the altitude and it affects them defensively more than anything.  The Jazz are 7-1 OVER in all home games this season finishing with 233 or more combined points in all eight games, and and 254 or more in seven of those eight games.

The Lakers are fully healthy now with LeBron and Vincent back to go along with Reaves and Doncic.  They beat the Jazz 140-126 at home in their last game.  What stood out is neither team shot well from 3-point range and they still combined for 266 points.  The Jazz shot 13-of-45 (29%) while the Lakers shot 11-of-32 (34%) from deep.

The Lakers are 10-5 OVER in their 15 games this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Lakers finishing with 242 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  This total of 244 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Blazers/Thunder OVER 234.5

The Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace this season and have gone 12-4 OVER in their 16 games.  They are coming off a 127-123 win over the Warriors in the NBA Cup despite not having Sharpe (22.6 PPG) or Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG) in the lineup.

The Thunder went for 256 combined points with the Jazz last time out and 235 with the Pelicans three games ago.  They won't mind running with the Blazers, and they want to make a statement here offensively after suffering their only loss of the season to the Blazers.

They lost 121-119 in Portland for 240 combined points on November 5th.  They shot just 42% from the field and still scored 119 points.  The Blazers only shot 41% from the field and still scored 121.  So there's even some room for improvement for both teams in the shooting department in the rematch tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -4.5

I love the spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They are coming off an upset loss to the Nets in a home-and-home situation after beating the Nets by 14 on the road in the game prior.  They will come back motivated here to beat the Orlando Magic tonight.

The Celtics have a big rest advantage over the Magic.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days after a huge 133-121 win over the Knicks last night.

Jalen Suggs played 32 minutes and scored 26 points last night and will likely sit this 2nd of a back-to-back for injury management.  The Magic are already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (21.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG).  Those two combined for 48 points in a 111-107 home loss to the Celtics in their last meeting on November 9th.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Celtics UNDER 221

The Celtics are a dead nuts UNDER team ranking dead last (30th) in pace this season.  The Magic are in no hurry either ranking 20th in pace.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will already be the 3rd meeting between the Magic and Celtics this season.  Nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams have seen 218 or fewer combined points.

Jalen Suggs played 32 minutes and scored 26 points last night and will likely sit this 2nd of a back-to-back for injury management.  The Magic are already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (21.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG).  Those two combined for 48 points in a 111-107 home loss to the Celtics in their last meeting on November 9th.

So the Magic won't have two of their best scorers and their floor general in Suggs, so points will be very hard to come by.  The Celtics already struggle on the offensive end as well, relying more on defense this season than ever to be competitive.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets ML +107

Charlotte Hornets are a much better team with La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 9.6 APG) is in the lineup.  The offense runs much faster and smoother with him at PG.  The Hornets are basically fully healthy now with Brandon Miller (14.5 PPG) making his return after sitting out the last 13 games after starting the first two games of the season.  He's the reason many were excited about the Hornets this season.

The Clippers have been a much worse defensive team without Kawhi Leonard (24.3 PPG) and Derrick Jones Jr. (10.5 PPG).  They are also without Bradley Beal for the season now, and the Norman Powell trade couldn't look any worse than it does right now.

The Clippers are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS and there's no end in sight.  They are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games with their lone win coming in OT against the Mavericks.  They have no business being favored on the road here against a much healthier, better Hornets team in their current form.  

This is also a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Clippers starting at 1:00 EST, something they are not used to and I think it will take them some time to wake up.  Bet the Hornets on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Hornets OVER 226.5

Charlotte Hornets is a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 9.6 APG) is in the lineup.  The offense runs much faster and smoother with him at PG.  The Hornets are basically fully healthy now with Brandon Miller (14.5 PPG) making his return after sitting out the last 13 games after starting the first two games of the season.  He's the reason many were excited about the Hornets this season.

The Clippers have been a much worse defensive team without Kawhi Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr.  That means more minutes for guys like John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic who are all offense and no defense.

The Clippers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games finishing with 230 combined points with the Magic, 239 with the Celtics, 228 at the end of regulation with the Mavericks and 246 with the Nuggets.

The OVER is 6-3 in the nine games in which Ball has played this season finishing with 227 or more combined points in eight of those nine games.  This total of 226.5 is very short for a game involving the Hornets with Ball in the lineup.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Jazz OVER 235.5

The Jazz are 4-0 OVER in their last four games combining for 266 points with the Lakers, 254 with the Bulls at the end of regulation, 254 with the Hawks and 270 with the Pacers.  The Jazz rank 8th in pace and 25th in defensive rating, and as long as Markkanen is healthy and playing the Jazz are a pretty solid offensive team as well.

What has really stood out is just how high-scoring these Utah games have been when they are at home in Salt Lake City and dictating the pace.  Opposing teams tend to get more tired in the altitude and it affects them defensively more than anything.  The Jazz are 6-1 OVER in all home games this season finishing with 233 or more combined points in all seven games, and and 254 or more in six of those seven games.

The Thunder will have no problem running with the Jazz tonight.  In fact, they have motivation to win by as much as possible since this is a NBA Cup game and point differential is a tiebreaker.  That means they should keep their foot on the gas for four quarters and lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket by hanging a massive number on this porous Jazz defense.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Thunder and Jazz finishing with 237 or more combined points in seven of those eight meetings.  This total of 235.5 is very low for a game involving these two teams when you look at the head-to-head history.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Blazers OVER 243.5

This game has high-scoring shootout written all over it.  It's a game between two Top 3 teams in pace with the Blazers ranking 2nd and the Bulls 3rd behind only the Miami Heat in that department.  There will be a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points.

The Bulls are 9-4 OVER this season despite playing 12 of their 13 games without Coby White.  Well, White just returned and poured in 27 points in 30 minutes in his season debut.  He will make this Bulls offense led by Josh Giddey even more potent moving forward.

The Blazers are 11-3 OVER in their 14 games this season.  They have played some poor offensive teams here lately and are still 7-1 OVER in their last eight games.  They went for 242 combined points with the Pelicans who were without Zion and Poole, 256 combined points with Houston, 271 with Dallas and 237 with Phoenix, who was without Allen and Green two of their best scorers.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago -2

The Chicago Bulls have opened 7-6 SU & 8-4-1 ATS this season despite playing all but one game without Coby White.  Well, White just made his season debut with 27 points in 30 minutes off the bench.  The Bulls are now as healthy as they have been all season and one of the more underrated teams in the NBA.

The Blazers are struggling going 1-5 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Pelicans who were without Zion and Poole.  This is a very tough spot for the Blazers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-110 home loss to the Suns last night.

They lost by 17 at home to a Suns team that was missing two of their best players in Jalen Green and Grayson Allen, too.  Injuries are a problem for the Blazers right now being without Jrue Holiday (16.7 PPG, 8.3 APG).  They also could be without Jerami Grant (18.3 PPG) who is battling illness and sat out last night.  

The Bulls are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Blazers.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -6.5

I released the Heat -6.5 with the anticipation that the Golden State Warriors would rest Steph Curry among others.  The Warriors are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th road game in 9 days, which is as tough of a rest situation as there is in the NBA.  Steve Kerr usually plays it smart and rests his stars.

The result has been even better than expected.  Not only is Curry (27.9 PPG) out, but Jimmy Butler (20.1 PPG), Jonathan Kumingo (13.8 PPG) and Draymond Green (7.9 PPG) have all been ruled out since.  Buddy Hield (6.6 PPG) may sit as well.  The Warriors will be sending a G League team out there tonight.

The Heat made the mistake of taking the Cavaliers lightly without their superstars a week ago tonight.  After upsetting the Cavs 140-138 (OT) two nights prior, the Heat didn't show up in a 130-116 loss to the Cavs and their backups.  They talked about how disappointed they were in their performance after the game and the fact that they took the Cavs lightly.  They won't make the same mistake a week later.  Look for the Heat to bury the Warriors early and not let them up for air for 4 quarters.  

The Heat are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their six home games this season with their lone loss coming in that letdown to the Cavs.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pacers OVER 234.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy.  Well, he is healthy and playing now, and the Hornets play with a lot more pace with him running the show.  They face another dead nuts OVER team in Indiana tonight in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.

The Pacers rank 10th in pace this season despite playing without Tyrese Haliburton for the entire season and TJ McConnell for 90% of it thus far.  McConnell is back to run the offense, so the Pacers should play even faster moving forward.  Indiana is 3-1 OVER in its last four games combining for 239 points with Detroit and a bunch of backups for the Pistons, 240 with the Raptors, 231 with the Suns and 280 with the Jazz.

These are two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as the Pacers rank 26th in defensive rating while the Hornets rank 23rd.  Both teams should get whatever they want offensively in what should be a high-scoring, fast-paced game tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Jazz/Lakers OVER 238.5

The Jazz are 3-0 OVER in their last three games combining for 254 points with the Bulls at the end of regulation, 254 with the Hawks and 270 with the Pacers.  The Jazz rank 10th in pace and 24th in defensive rating, and as long as Markkanen is healthy and playing the Jazz are a pretty solid offensive team as well.

The Lakers are expected to be fully healthy for the first time this season with LeBron James making his debut.  Doncic and Reaves have really clicked, and adding LeBron to the fold should only make them even more of a juggernaut offensively.  Gabe Vincent also makes his return.

The Lakers are 9-5 OVER in their 14 games this season.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Lakers finishing with 242 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  This total of 238.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks PK

The Atlanta Hawks have actually been better without Trae Young.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with four road wins and an upset home win over the Lakers by 20.  I look for them to take down the Detroit Pistons tonight.

This is a tough spot for the Pistons playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-112 home win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Indiana Pacers.  Yes, the Pistons currently have a 10-game winning streak, but they are overvalued now because of it as it has come against abut the softest schedule you could imagine.  

The Pistons only beat two teams with winning records during this 10-game winning streak, and those were the 76ers (8-5) and Bulls (7-6), two mediocre teams.  The Hawks (9-5) are the best team they will have played since a 21-point loss to the Cavaliers prior to this streak.

Injuries are a big problem for the Pistons right now with LeVert, Ivey and Sasser out while Cunningsham, Thompson and Harris are all questionable to play tonight.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 140-132 in New York to the Knicks on Friday.  They will get that revenge tonight, especially with the Knicks playing without both Jalen Brunson (28.0 PPG, 6.5 APG) and OG Anunoby (15.8 PPG).

The Heat have been a resilient team and haven't lost three straight all season.  They won't be losing three in a row for the first time tonight, either.  The Heat are 5-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming the next night after beating the Cavaliers, suffering a letdown spot in the rematch.  

The Knicks are 0-3 SU on the road this season.  They lost by 8 to the Heat, by 10 to the Bucks and by 10 to the Bulls.  This will be their first road game since October 31st as they have benefitted from a very home-heavy schedule this season.  Bet the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Heat OVER 244

The Heat are lapping the field in the NBA playing at a much faster pace than anyone while ranking 1st in pace this season.  Oddsmakers just can't set their totals high enough as they are 9-4 OVER in their 13 games this season.  They have failed to set it high enough tonight, too.

The Knicks are also a dead nuts OVER team going 9-3 OVER in their 12 games this season.  They are without Brunson and Anunoby, but being without Anunoby hurts much more defensively than it does on offense.  It means more playing time for Jordan Clarkson, who is a terrible defender but instant offense.

These teams just played on Friday with the Knicks winning 140-132 for 272 combined points.  Shamet had 36 points while Clarkson had 24 and Hart had a triple-double for the Knicks, showing that they have a deep bench.  They are worse off defensively with those guys getting more minutes, though.

The Knicks attempted 53 3-pointers while the Heat shot 44 in that first meeting, and it will be another game played either at the rim or behind the 3-point line.  I see another shootout that easily eclipses this 244-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Raptors OVER 239.5

The Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (22.3 PPG, 9.9 APG) is healthy and in the lineup.  He recently returned from an ankle injury in a 147-134 loss to the Bucks.  He sat out the next night against the Thunder, but he's back tonight against the Raptors.

The Hornets play much faster with Ball running the show, and the Raptors like to run as well ranking 12th in pace.  The Raptors went for 240 combined points with the short-handed Pacers and 239 with the short-handed avs in their last two games.  They went for 250 with the 76ers four games back.  They are fully healthy right now and thriving offensively scoring 119 or more points in four consecutive games.

The last time Ball faced the Raptors last season these teams went for 271 combined points in a 138-133 victory for Charlotte.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Jazz OVER 243

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They play fast and they rank 25th in defensive rating allowing 118.3 points per 100 possessions.  They face an even more OVER team in the Bulls, who play at the 4th-fasted pace in the NBA this season.

Utah is 5-1 OVER in its six home games scoring 131.3 points per game and allowing 126.3 points per game, combining to average over 257 points per game at home this season.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for 233 or more points in all six home games, including 280 with the Pacers and 254 with the Hawks in their last two home games.

The Bulls are 7-4 OVER despite playing without Coby White all season and Josh Giddey for the last few games.  Well, Giddey is back tonight, and White could make his season debut.  The Bulls play at a break-neck pace and are much more efficient when Giddey is on the court running the offense.  

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings finishing with 243 or more combined points in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/Mavs OVER 233.5

The Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in the NBA in pace.  The Mavericks have made a move to play faster ranking 5th in pace this season.  So this is a matchup between two Top 5 teams in pace, and there will be a ton of possessions as a result.

The Blazers are 9-3 OVER in their 12 games this season finishing with 238 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall.  The Mavericks are 3-0 OVER in their last three games finishing with 230 or more combined points in all three.  They are having to play more small ball this season with injuries to their big men.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Celtics UNDER 221

This is a matchup between the two slowest-paced teams in the NBA.  The Celtics rank dead last (30th) in pace and the Clippers rank 29th.  This game will be played at a snail's pace today to say the least, and I like betting UNDERS in these early afternoon NBA games because teams aren't used to playing this early in the day.  It only happens on Sunday's, and teams tend to sleep walk through them.

The Clippers and Celtics have combined for 220 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last three meetings.  They have combined for 206, 220 and 211 points.  It will be more of the same here in their first meeting of the 2025-26 season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Lakers/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR UNDER 230.5

Both the Lakers and Bucks played in the NBA Cup last night and both will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  That means both are likely to rest their stars tonight.  Don't be surprised if Giannis sits for the Bucks, while Doncic and/or Reaves sit for the Lakers.

Giannis will almost certainly sit after beating the Hornets in OT last night and playing 40 minutes.  Doncic played 40 minutes and Reaves 39 for the Lakers last night.  These offenses are going to struggle without these guys if they do sit, and I don't hate the UNDER if they don't because they will be on tired legs and the shooting will be affected.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 235

The Nuggets will be without Christian Braun (11.4 PPG) and Cam Johnson (7.2 PPG) tonight.  They also could be without Nikola Jokic (28.8 PPG, 10.9 APG), who is questionable with a wrist injury.  Their offense will be hampered without Braun and Johnson, and it will be non-existent if Jokic sits.

The Timberwolves are coming off a 124-110 win over the Kings last night in the NBA Cup.  They could elect to wrest Anthony Edwards and possibly more guys after all five starters played at least 30 minutes last night.  Either way, I like the UNDER in this matchup.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -6.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dumpster fire.  They are 1-11 this season and coming off five straight troubling losses with no help in sight.  They were upset at home by the Nets as 6.5-point favorites, they lost by 17 in Denver as 9-point dogs, lost by 31 in Golden State as 13-point dogs, lost by 24 at Utah while giving up 152 points to the Jazz, and last time out lost by 35 at Phoenix.

To add insult to injury the Pacers just lost Aaron Nesmith (15.5 PPG) to a long-term knee injury in that loss to the Suns.  They were already without Benndict Mathurin (31.0 PPG), Obi Toppin (14.0 PPG), Tyrese Haliburton, Kam Jones, Quenton Jackson (11.8 PPG) and Johnny Furphy.  There's just no help in sight for this team.

The Raptors are rolling right now going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with upset road wins over Cleveland by 13, Cleveland by 11 and Atlanta by 12 during this stretch.  They also blew out the Bucks by 28 and the Grizzlies by 13 at home.  They will make easy work of the short-handed Pacers tonight.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Spurs OVER 235

The Spurs are now a dead nuts OVER team since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury to run the PG position.  He made his return three games ago in a 126-119 win over the Pelicans for 245 combined points.  That was a Pelicans team missing two of its best players in Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, too.  The Spurs then beat the Bulls 121-117 for 238 combined points two games ago.  

Last time out, the Spurs lost to the Warriors 125-120 for 245 combined points.  The Spurs are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall going for 231 or more combined points in all six games.  The Spurs will play a lot faster with Fox moving forward.  Nobody in the NBA gets from one rim to the other faster than Fox.  He will get the Spurs in their offense faster, and they will play with much more pace.

The Warriors are an OVER team as long as Steph Curry is healthy.  He is healthy now, and he had 46 points going 5-of-16 from 3-point range in that 125-120 win over the Spurs on Wednesday.  The Warriors shot 57 3-pointers, and it should be more of the same here with a lot of fast break opportunities for Fox and the Spurs on the misses.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Warriors/Spurs NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio -2

San Antonio is a young team that cares about winning the NBA Cup.  Golden State is a veteran team that's more focused on a championship and won't get up for these NBA Cup games like the Spurs will.  Adding to San Antonio's motivation is a 125-120 home loss to the Warriors on Wednesday, and they feel like this would be the ultimate revenge to beat the Warriors in the NBA Cup.

The Warriors needed a huge 2H comeback to beat the Spurs.  They also hit 21 3-pointers and went 32-of-36 from the FT line, while the Spurs went just 14-of-16 from the FT line.  I suspect the Warriors won't get the benefit of the whistle like they did in that meeting Wednesday, and the FT disparity won't be nearly as high.

The Spurs are 5-1 SU at home this season, so that was their lone home loss adding to their motivation for revenge.  The Warriors are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Bucks OVER 239

The Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy, and he is making his return to the lineup tonight for this NBA Cup game.  The Bucks are a dead nuts OVER team as long as Giannis is healthy, and he is making his return to the lineup for this NBA Cup game tonight.  This total of 239 is too short.

Ball is averaging 23.3 points, 9.8 assists and 7.8 rebounds per game this season.  Their offense plays a lot faster and is a lot more efficient with him running the show, but their defense gets worse.  The Hornets will be without C Ryan Kalbrenner tonight, so their defense takes a hit without his size inside.  They will have to go more small ball.

Giannis is off to an MVP-caliber start averaging 33.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game.  G Ryan Rollins has emerged as a playmaker, and the Bucks have a lot of shooting surrounding Giannis to make them a very efficient offense.  They will be without one of their best wing defenders in Taurean Prince tonight as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Jazz OVER 233.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They play fast and they rank 25th in defensive rating allowing 117.9 points per 100 possessions.  They face an Atlanta Hawks team with a similar profile that also likes to play fast tonight.  This game should sail OVER this 233.5-point total.

Utah is 4-1 OVER in its five home games scoring 133.2 points per game and allowing 125.2 points per game, combining to average over 258 points per game at home this season.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for 233 or more points in all five home games, including 280 with the short-handed Pacers last time out.

The Hawks are thriving offensively even without Trae Young.  They have scored at least 122 points in four of their last seven games overall, and I expect them to get to at least that number tonight to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 233.5 ticket.  The Jazz just hung 152 points on the Pacers and they have scored at least 129 points in four of their five home games this season.  

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Hawks and Jazz finishing with 281, 245 and 246 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Lakers/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 228.5

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-2 OVER in their 11 games this season finishing with 228 or more combined points in 10 of those 11 games.  This despite playing without LeBron James the entire way, and multiple games without both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

Reaves (30.3 PPG, 9.0 APG) is back after missing three games in a row.  The Lakers have been pretty dangerous with him and Luka Doncic (37.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 9.1 APG) on the court at the same time.  They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA, but they are also one of the worst defensive teams.

The Thunder are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 228 or more combined points with their opponents in six of those seven games.  This total of 228.5 is very short for a game involving the Lakers and Thunder right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Spurs OVER 231.5

The Spurs are now a dead nuts OVER team since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury to run the PG position.  He made his return two games ago in a 126-119 win over the Pelicans for 245 combined points.  That was a Pelicans team missing two of its best players in Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, too.  The Spurs beat the Bulls 121-117 for 238 combined points last time out.  The Spurs are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall going for 231 or more combined points in all five games.

The Spurs will play a lot faster with Fox moving forward.  Nobody in the NBA gets from one rim to the other faster than Fox.  He will get the Spurs in their offense faster, and they will play with much more pace.  That was evident against the Pelicans and Bulls, and it will continue to be the case tonight against the Warriors.

Steph Curry is expected to play tonight, and as long as he is in the lineup the Warriors profile more of an OVER team.  The Spurs and Warriors have combined for at least 230 points in six of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4

The San Antonio Spurs are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 5-4-1 ATS this season, including 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home.  I fully expect them to make it 6-0 at home to start the season given the favorable spot they are in against the Warriors tonight.

The Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-102 road loss at Oklahoma City last night.  They will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough as it gets.  The Warriors are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six road games including blowout losses to the Blazers by 20, the Nuggets by 25 and the Thunder by 24.  Kuminga has been downgraded to questionable.

The Spurs are rolling despite only having De'Aaron Fox for the last two games.  He has averaged 22.5 points per game in those two games since returning, and the Spurs will only continue to get more and more comfortable with him with each passing game moving forward.  They will handle their business tonight.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -5.5

The Miami Heat are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have opened 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS and their change of philosophy to play at the fastest pace in the entire NBA is giving teams trouble.

It gave the Cavaliers trouble the other night in a 140-138 (OT) win by Miami on Monday.  And that was with a healthy Cavaliers team.  Now the Cavs have no chance of keeping this game competitive with all the players that will be sitting out for the rematch tonight.

The Cavs will be without Mitchell (30.4 PPG), Mobley (20.1 PPG), Garland (13.0 PPG) and Tyson (11.1 PPG).  I trust Erik Spoelstra and these Miami players not to take them lightly tonight.  If they don't, this will be one of the biggest blowouts of the season.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls ML +105

The Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 6-4 SU & 7-2-1 ATS despite playing without Coby White the entire season, and Josh Giddey for multiple games.  They are proving they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and their ultra fast pace gives opponents problems.

It will certainly cause problems for the short-handed Detroit Pistons tonight.  Several players got injured in their 137-135 (OT) win over Washington on the 2nd of a back-to-back as 11-point favorites on Monday.  Now it looks like they are going to rest some key players tonight.

The Pistons were already going to be without Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson and Isaiah Stewart tonight.  Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren both missed shootaround, a sign that neither will play tonight.  The Pistons will be running out basically a G League team if that's the case.  The Bulls have lost three straight coming in so they will not take them lightly if these guys sit.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Magic/Knicks ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 226.5

The Knicks are rolling offensively going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall while scoring at least 119 points in six consecutive games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven games overall finishing with 232 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 226.5 is too low for a game involving the Knicks right now.

The Magic have changed philosophy to try and play faster and their offense has been much better with the addition of Desmond Bane and the return to health of Jalen Suggs.  The Magic rank in the top half of the league in pace.  But they have slipped big-time defensively this season.

The Magic and their opponents have combined for at least 227 points in five of their last seven games overall.  So this total of 226.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Magic right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Celtics/76ers NBC No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -115

Tough break with Joel Embiid getting ruled out out of nowhere since I released this play.  But I still think the 76ers have the goods to get the job done as they have gotten used to playing without Embiid for the last two seasons.  If anything I'd just downgrade this to a 15* instead of a 20*.

The 76ers want revenge from a 109-108 home loss to the Celtics in the NBA Cup on October 31st.  They will want this game more, and I could see the Celtics having a letdown here after already beating the 76ers.  I also just don't think this Celtics team is that good with who they are putting on the court this season with the losses of Tatum, Porzingis, Holiday and Horford.

The 76ers are 3-2 SU at home this season with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points, so they are very close to being 5-0 at home.  The Celtics are 3-3 SU on the road with two of their wins coming by a combined 5 points and the other coming against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Pelicans.  They lost by 13 to the Magic and by 10 to the Knicks.

The Celtics will be playing their 10th game in 17 days as they haven't had two days off in a row once this season.  The 76ers will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days.  Bet the 76ers on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -9.5

The New York Knicks fully healthy right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Knicks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating the Bulls by 12 as 7.5-point favorites, the Wizards by 17 as 13-point favorites, the Timberwolves by 23 as 3.5-point favorites and the Nets by 36 as 15.5-point favorites.

The Knicks will continue their string of double-digit blowout victories against a Memphis Grizzlies team that is one of the most overrated in the NBA.  The Grizzlies are 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS this season.  JA Morant acts like he doesn't even want to be in Memphis anymore, and he just doesn't have much help outside of Jaren Jackson Jr.

The Grizzlies have rarely even been competitive this season as five of their seven losses have come by 13 points or more.  That includes road losses to the Warriors by 16 and the Raptors by 13, as well as home losses to the Thunder by 14, the Rockets by 15 and the Heat by 32.

The rest situation favors the Knicks, too.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Grizzlies will be playing their 11th game in 19 days and have not had two days off in between games all season.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -10

The Brooklyn Nets are a dumpster fire this season.  They are 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS with their lone win coming against the short-handed Indiana Pacers, who are an equal dumpster fire.  The Nets have six losses already by 16 points or more, so laying this 10-point spread isn't that big of a stretch at all.

That's especially the case with how well the Toronto Raptors are playing right now.  The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Philadelphia after beating the Hawks by 12 on the road in the NBA Cup the night prior.  It was a clear letdown spot.

Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go tonight after having the last two days off.  Their last four wins have all come by 11 points or more, so laying 10 here is not a big stretch.  Those four wins came against the Hawks, Bucks, Grizzlies and Cavs all by double-digits, so it was a tough schedule as well.  The Raptors are fully healthy with the exception of backup F Agbaji.

The Nets will be without second-leading scorer Cam Thomas (21.4 PPG) and key role player Day'Ron Sharpe (6.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG).  The Nets rank dead last in the NBA in defensive rating allowing 126.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Nets winning by 11, 30 and 17 points.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Bulls OVER 236.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace this season while going 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 236 or more combined points in six of their last seven games, including 250 with the Cavs, 244 with the Knicks, 260 with the Knicks and 251 with the Hawks.  This total of 236.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Bulls.

The Spurs are now a dead nuts OVER team since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury to run the PG position.  He made his return last time out in a 126-119 win over the Pelicans for 245 combined points.  That was a Pelicans team missing two of its best players in Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, too.

The Spurs will play a lot faster with Fox moving forward.  Nobody in the NBA gets from one rim to the other faster than Fox.  He will get the Spurs in their offense faster, and they will play with much more pace.  That was evident against the Pelicans, and it will be amplified tonight against a Bulls team that will welcome them to run.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Heat OVER 247

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Monday when the Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Miami Heat.  The Heat rank 1st in pace with their new brand of basketball while the Cavaliers rank 7th in pace, carrying over what they did last season that made them one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA.

The Heat are 6-4 OVER in their 10 games this season finishing with 246 or more combined points five times.  The Cavs are 3-0 OVER in their last three games finishing with 250 combined points with the Bulls, 263 with the Wizards and 253 with the 76ers.

The Cavaliers recently got both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland back from injury and have been thriving on offense since, scoring 132 points against the 76ers, 148 against the Wizard and 128 against the Bulls.  They will hang a big number on the Heat, who are missing their best defender in Bam Adebayo and playing much more small ball now.

The Heat are coming off a 136-131 home win over the Blazers for 267 combined points.  Having Norman Powell back healthy opens up their offense, and their bench is deep with Jovic (29 points) and Jacquez Jr. (14) providing offensive production when they come in.  This figures to be one of the highest-scoring games of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Lakers/Hornets OVER 231

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-2 OVER in their 10 games this season finishing with 228 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  This despite playing without LeBron James the entire way, and multiple games without both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

Reaves (31.1 PPG, 9.3 APG) is back from a 3-game absence tonight.  The Lakers have been pretty dangerous with him and Luka Doncic (37 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 9.5 APG) on the court at the same time.  They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA, but they are also one of the worst defensive teams.

The Hornets also profile as an OVER team ranking 4th in pace this season and 24th in defensive rating.  They will get Miles Bridges (20.7 PPG) and Collin Sexton (16.1 PPG, 5.3 APG) back tonight, and they should be able to do enough offensively even without La'Melo Ball.  This total would easily be in the 240's if Ball was playing, and I think it has been adjusted down too much for the fact that he's not.

The OVER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings finishing with 231 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Portland Trail Blazers +2.5

The spot really favors the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with a short trip from Miami to Orlando.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 111-107 loss to the Celtics last night after beating the same Celtics team in the NBA Cup on Friday.

The Magic have already announced they will be without Jalen Suggs tonight due to rest.  Suggs had 20 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists against the Celtics yesterday and was finding his footing in his return from injury this season.  The offense is just lost without him as he gets everything going for them.  The other four starters all played at least 32 minutes last night for the Magic, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank tonight.

The Blazers will test those tired legs by playing at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA this season.  They have been one of the more underrated teams in the NBA going 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS this season with upset wins over the likes of the Thunder, Nuggets, Warriors and Lakers thus far.

The Magic have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA, going 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their 10 games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -15.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dumpster fire this season.  They are 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS with their lone win coming against the short-handed Indiana Pacers, who are an equal dumpster fire.  The Nets have five losses already by 16 points or more, so laying this 15.5-point spread isn't that big of a stretch at all.

That's especially the case with the New York Knicks fully healthy right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Knicks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall beating the Bulls by 12 as 7.5-point favorites, the Wizards by 17 as 13-point favorites and the Timberwolves by 23 as 3.5-point favorites.

The Knicks have been off since Wednesday so they are on three days' rest and primed for a big effort.  They will have no mercy for the Nets, who they currently have a 10-game winning streak against and will keep that going in blowout fashion today.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +12

I love the spot for the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They have had the last two days off, while the Denver Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 129-104 home win over the Golden State Warriors who were without Steph Curry last night.

This will also be the 4th game in 6 days for the Nuggets, who could decide to rest some guys tonight.  That was their first win in their last four games by more than 10 points.  They are laying too many points here given the spot.

The Pacers are just 1-7 SU but 5-3 ATS this season and have been competitive in almost every game.  Only two of their losses have come by more than 9 points this season.  There's a chance they get Andrew Nembhard back from injury as he has been upgraded to questionable, which is a good sign he makes his return tonight.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They have had the last two days off, while the Miami Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-108 win over the Charlotte Hornets, who were without three of their best players in Ball, Sexton and Miller.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Heat, about as tough of a spot as it gets.

Making matters worse for the Heat is they were already without their two best players in Herro and Adebayo, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rest Norman Powell after he suffered an ankle injury last night.

The Blazers will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, so they couldn't possibly be fresher.  They are playing well too going 4-1 SU in their last five games overall including wins over the Thunder, Nuggets and Lakers.  They are 6-2 ATS in all games this season and one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Lakers -3

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  The Lakers have had the last two days off, while the Atlanta Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 109-97 home loss to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Cup last night.

The Hawks are already without Trae Young so they are short-handed.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Hawks last night.  There's a chance they decide to rest some guys here on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Lakers are rolling right now going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Luka Doncic is playing at an MVP level, and JJ Redick is in the running for Coach of the Year honors with what he is doing with this team without LeBron James.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Thunder/Kings OVER 229.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Friday in what should be a shootout between the Thunder and Kings.  The Thunder are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 233 or more combined points in all four games.

The Kings are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall finishing with 237 or more combined points in all four games.  The Kings get back Zach LaVine tonight and have a deep bench with Russell Westbrook and Malik Monk, who both provide a lot more on offense than they do on defense.

The Thunder have also gotten healthier in recent weeks with Isaiah Joe and Chet Holmgren both back in the lineup, and both provide a lot more on offense than they do on defense.  Jalen Williams is out and Lu Dort is questionable, which are arguably OKC's two best defenders.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +11

The Sacramento Kings are 3-5 this season but they have been competitive in every game.  That includes their 107-101 road loss at OKC as 9-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They gave up a 14-4 run to end that game and blow it.  They now want revenge in the rematch in the NBA Cup catching 11 points this time around.

The Kings get Zach LaVine back healthy tonight and there's a chance Domantas Sabonis returns as well.  They have shown off their depth as Monk is one of the best 6th men in the league, and Russell Westbrook still has it coming off a 23-point, 16-rebound, 12-assist triple-double.

The Thunder opened 8-0 this season with smoke and mirrors winning two OT games plus escaping with narrow wins over the Kings and Mavericks.  They finally had their perfect season come to an end with an upset loss at Portland last time out.  They will now be playing their 7th game in 12 days and are a tired, banged up team.

The Thunder can't be favored by double-digits on the road here considering they are going to be without Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins and could be without Lu Dort, who is questionable.  These injuries are a big reason they have played in so many close games this season.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Orlando Magic tonight.  Many though they would contend in the East this season, but they have opened just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS.  The talent is there for a quick turnaround and I think we will see them put their best foot forward at home in the NBA Cup tonight.

The Boston Celtics were expected to have a down year with the loss of Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford.  They have held their own to this point at 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS, but most of their wins have come against bottom feeders.  I think they will get worked tonight against a Magic team that has a lot more talent and depth than the Celtics this season.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* Clippers/Suns NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix ML -122

The injury situation really favors the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They get Jalen Green into the lineup for the first time this season as he comes over from the Rockets in the Kevin Durant trade.  They are fully healthy with the exception of Dillon Brooks now.

The Clippers will be without their two best players in James Harden (23.3 PPG, 8.6 APG) and Kawhi Leonard (24.3 PPG).  The Clippers have been overvalued all season and continue to be overvalued here as a short road underdog without these two.  They are 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS this season and it won't get better until these two return.  Bet the Suns on the Money Line Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Thunder/Blazers OVER 228.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 3rd in pace and have gone 5-2 OVER in their seven games this season while finishing with 230 or more combined points in five of their seven games.  This total of 228.5 is very low for a game involving the Blazers right now.

The Thunder have overcome a lot of injuries for a 8-0 start this season.  They are much healthier now with key offensive weapons Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe back healthy.  They should start playing much faster with all these guys back.

The Thunder are 5-3 OVER in their eight games this season finishing with 233 or more combined points in three straight coming in.  They rank 4th in offensive rating and will make their way to 1st in that department as the season goes on as long as they stay healthy.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat +9.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

The Heat have opened 4-3 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season.  They crushed Memphis 146-114 on the road as 3-point dogs, beat the Knicks 115-107 as 3.5-point home dogs, crushed the Hornets 144-117 at home as 4.5-point favorites and upset the Clippers 120-119 as 7.5-point road dogs.  This is the most undervalued team in the NBA right now.

The Denver Nuggets have been very disappointing in their last two games.  After getting upset as 5.5-point road favorites by the Blazers in the NBA Cup, they came back off two days' rest and only beat the Kings by 6 as 11.5-point home favorites.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Nuggets OVER 240.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They have since gone for 261 combined points with the Hornets, 250 with the Lakers and 239 with the Clippers in their last three games to improve to 5-2 OVER in their seven games this season.  These games are sailing OVER the total.

Denver also looks like a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and poor defense.  The Nuggets are 4-2 OVER in their six games this season going for 241 or more combined points in all four overs.  The Nuggets rank 2nd in offensive rating this season averaging 121.2 points per 100 possessions.

The Heat and Nuggets went OVER the total in both meetings last season combining for 257 and 246 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Timberwolves/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 5-2 OVER in their seven games this season finishing with 227 or more combined points in six of their seven games, and 231 or more in five of them.  The Knicks are 3-1 OVER in their last four games finishing with 232 or more combined points in three of the four.  This total of 227.5 is very low for a game involving the Knicks and Timberwolves right now.

That's especially the case with Anthony Edwards expected back after missing basically the last five games for the Timberwolves.  It looks as though both teams are fully healthy right now, and both are two of the better offensive teams in the league when that's the case.  Minnesota is 9th in offensive rating while New York is 13th.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +6.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Nets tonight after a 0-7 start to the season.  The Nets have one of their best chances to get their first win of the season tonight against the injury-ravaged Indiana Pacers.

The Pacers are 1-6 this season.  They opened the season without Haliburton and McConnell, and they have since lost Mathurin, Nembhard, Toppin, Jackson and Furphy to injury.  They are basically a G League team right now and have no business being a 6.5-point favorite here.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors -11

The Golden State Warriors are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight following two straight upset road losses to the Pacers and Bucks. Now they are back home where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season. The Warriors also have the rest advantage after having the last two days off.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Suns following three straight covers at home. Now the Suns are back on the road where they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS this season, losing to Utah, Denver by 22 and the Clippers by 27.

The Suns remain without Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and Ryan Dunn and I don't give them much of a chance of keeping this game competitive without those three. The Warriors are nearly fully healthy with the exception of Al Horford, who isn't much of a loss at this point in his career. Bet the Warriors Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -4.5

I love the spot for the Toronto Raptors tonight. They are coming off consecutive blowout wins over Memphis by 13 at home and Cleveland by 11 on the road. They had yesterday off, and now they want revenge on the Bucks after losing by 6 to them on October 24th in their first meeting.

The Bucks are coming off a buzzer-beater 117-115 win over the injury-depleted Indiana Pacers last night. They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and they haven't had consecutive days off yet this season, so they are a tired team. This is a clear letdown spot for the Bucks after that thrilling win last night, plus having already beaten the Raptors by 6 in their first meeting. Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -3

This is a great spot for the Portland Trail Blazers and a terrible one for the Los Angeles Lakers. The spot justifies the Blazers being the favorite here as they should easily get the win and cover because of it.

The Blazers have had the last two days off and have won three in a row coming in as one of the more underrated teams in the NBA. That includes a 122-108 road win over the Lakers are identical 3-point favorites. Now they are at home and 3-point favorites in the rematch as well.

The Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 130-120 home win over the Miami Heat last night. Doncic and Reaves both played 38 minutes, and I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both sit in this game. The Lakers will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight. Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a dumpster fire right now. They suspended JA Morant for one game, and though he could return tonight the chemistry in the locker room is not good.

The spot is also not good for the Grizzlies. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-104 loss in Toronto last night. They will also be playing their 7th game in 11 days here. They are already lacking depth without Edey, Clarke, Pippen Jr. and Jerome due to injuries.

The Pistons are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing very well. They upset the Rockets as 6.5-point road dogs, while also beating the Celtics by 6, Magic by 19 and Mavericks by 12 at home. Bet the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Bucks -6

The Indiana Pacers are decimated with injuries right now. They opened the season without Haliburton and McConnell, and they have since lost Mathurin, Nembhard and Toppin to injury. They cannot be competitive with a team like the Bucks without these guys.

The Bucks are fully healthy with the exception of Kevin Porter Jr., who was lost in the opener. The Bucks have played well without him and have a healthy Giannis now and should make easy work of the short-handed Pacers. I like that the Bucks are coming off an upset loss to the Kings to refocus them after an upset win over the Warriors in their previous game.

Milwaukee is also playing with playoff revenge after getting knocked out by the Pacers last season. Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Lakers OVER 233.5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

Playing at the league's fastest tempo produced a 125-121 loss to the Magic for 246 combined points and a 146-114 win over the Grizzlies for 260 combined points in their first two games of the season.  They also came through with a 144-117 home win over the Hornets last time out for 261 combined points. These games are sailing OVER the total.

The Lakers really profile as an OVER team with an elite offense led by Doncic and Reaves, but a terrible defense. The Lakers are 5-1 OVER in their six games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Heat/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +5

The Miami Heat have been impressive with their new strategy of playing at the league's fastest pace to open the season.  Whoever gets the rebound is taking it up themselves to get into the offense as fast as possible.  They are also pressuring teams full court, and it's a tough style to game plan for.

The Heat have opened 3-2 SU & 4-0-1 ATS this season with their two losses coming by 4 and 6 points to the Magic and Spurs, respectively.  They crushed Memphis 146-114 on the road as 3-point dogs, beat the Knicks 115-107 as 3.5-point home dogs, and crushed the Hornets 144-117 at home as 4.5-point favorites.  This is the most undervalued team in the NBA right now.

The Lakers are 4-1 in their last five games overall but have done it against a very soft schedule. They are coming off consecutive narrow road wins over the Timberwolves by 1 and Grizzlies by 5 in the NBA Cup. They are primed for a letdown spot here after that NBA Cup win.

The Heat are the much fresher team after having the last two days off, while the Lakers will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. Bet the Heat Sunday.