15* Thunder/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 199.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Chicago Bulls.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant, and Russell Westbrook is playing banged up right now and may not suit up tonight.

Chicago has injury issues of its own.  It is without its top two scorers in Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler.  Points have been hard to come by for the Bulls lately, and they will continue to be tonight.

Five of the last six meetings in this series have seen 189 or fewer combined points.  The Bulls and Thunder have combined for 182, 202, 174, 188, 170 and 189 points in those six meetings, or an average of 184.2 combined points per game.  That's roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 199.

OKC is 9-1 to the UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Thunder are 26-11 to the UNDER after allowing 100-plus points in four straight games since 1996.  Chicago is 31-14 to the UNDER off a home win over the past two years.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -5.5

The Brooklyn Nets (25-33) and Charlotte Bobcats (25-33) are tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  Obviously, both teams are going to want this game pretty badly, but I believe the Nets are in a much better position than the Hornets to get it tonight.

Charlotte is a very tired team right now as it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and the 3rd game in 4 days after narrowly escaping the lowly Los Angeles Lakers at home 104-103 last night.  It comes in having lost six of its last nine games overall with two of its wins coming against the Magic and Lakers.  It remains without starting PG Kemba Walker.

Brooklyn comes into this game almost fully healthy and on a days' rest after last playing on Monday in an impressive 110-108 win over Golden State.  The Nets are also playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have won four of their last six and have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven.

They covered in an 86-95 loss at Memphis as 13-point dogs where they were playing their 4th game in 5 days.  They beat the Lakers 114-105 as 3-point road favorites, the Nuggets 110-82 as 2-point road favorites, the Mavs 104-94 as 8-point road dogs, and the Warriors 110-108 as 5.5-point home dogs.  They did lose to New Orleans 96-102 as 2.5-point road favorites, but narrowly lost at Houston 98-102 as 8-point road dogs.  This is an impressive stretch to say the least against many of the top teams in the West.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Nets are 10-2 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Hornets.  Each of their last eight wins in this series have come by 5 points or more, including seven by 9 points or more.  That includes a 114-87 road win on December 13th in their first and only meeting of the 2014-15 season.

Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this season. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in March home games over the last two seasons.  The Hornets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Nets are 5-0 ATS when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Hawks UNDER 199.5

The Houston Rockets are going to be lost offensively tonight.  They were already without second-leading scorer Dwight Howard (16.1 ppg), and now they'll be without MVP candidate James Harden (27.1 ppg, 6.9 apg), who has been suspended for one game for kicking Lebron James last time out.

This total has been inflated because the Rockets have played four straight games that saw 200 or more combined points.  Well, that game against Cleveland on Sunday was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation before going into OT.  There's no question the Rockets will suffer offensively without Harden tonight.

Atlanta has really been playing in some low-scoring games here of late.  It has gone 6-0 to the UNDER in its last six games overall with combined scores of 177, 185, 183, 191, 183 and 184 points.  That's an average of 183.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total.

One of the biggest reasons for Atlanta's improvement this season has been its defense.  It ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.8 points per 100 possessions.  Well, Houston actually ranks ahead of the Hawks at 3rd in defensive efficiency, yielding 99.7 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta is giving up just 91.0 points per game in its last six.

The Hawks and Rockets did combined for 201 points in their first meeting on December 20th, but Harden and Howard both played in that game.  They have combined for 163 and 197 points in their two previous meetings.  So, in their last three meetings, they're averaging a combined 187.0 points per game.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (ATLANTA) - off a road win against a division rival against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less are 70-28 (71.4%) since 1996.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Rockets last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Hawks last five games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Hawks last six games overall.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Knicks UNDER 200

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Sacramento Kings and New York Knicks.  This total has been inflated due to both teams frequently going over the total in recent games.  The value is clearly with the under in this one as a result.

The Kings have gone over the total in five of their last six.  Well, the Kings are now without two of their top three scorers in DeMarcus Cousins (23.7 ppg) and Darren Collison (16.1 ppg).  They won't be nearly as effective offensively without these guys.

New York has gone 3-0 to the over in its last three games overall.  Well, it is also without two starters in leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (24.2 ppg) and top assist man Jose Calderon (9.1 ppg, 4.7 apg).  The Knicks' roster is an embarrassment without these two.

The Kings and Knicks have played in some very low-scoring games in New York in recent meetings.  Not counting overtime, the Kings and Knicks have combined for 186, 201, 185 and 176 points in their last four meetings in New York.  That's an average of 187.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

New York ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency at 98.8 points per 100 possessions.  Sacramento is 20th at 101.3 points per 100 possessions.  New York also ranks 28th in the NBA in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  It will control the tempo playing at home, so look for this one to be played at a snail's pace.

The Knicks are 20-8 to the UNDER when playing with two days' rest over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 21-8 to the UNDER off three or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last four vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 16-7 in Knicks last 23 home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +5.5

The Golden State Warriors are coming off one of the biggest comebacks in the NBA this season.  Trailing by 26 points midway through the second quarter, the Warriors came all the way back to beat the Boston Celtics 106-101 on the road Sunday.

Not only will this now be the second of a back-to-back, but the Warriors will also be playing their 4th game in 5 days.  That is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  They used a ton of energy coming back on Sunday and won't have much left to give tonight.

The Brooklyn Nets come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They are right in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff race at 24-33 and are obviously making a push to try and get into the postseason.

The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost at Memphis by 9 as 13-point dogs, beat the Lakers by 9 as 3-point road favorites, beat the Nuggets by 28 as 2-point road favorites, lost to New Orleans by 6 as 2.5-point road favorites, lost to Houston by 4 as 8-point road dogs, and beat Dallas by 10 as 8-point road dogs during this stretch.

The Warriors have been overvalued for quite some time now and continue to be tonight.  They are in the midst of a stretch where they have played 10 of their last 11 games on the road.  They are just 1-7-1 ATS in their nine road games during this span.

Brooklyn is 25-14 ATS revenging a road loss against an oponent over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 32-18 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last two years as well.  The Warriors are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference. Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Nets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  The Warriors are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Brooklyn.  Take the Nets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +11.5

The Philadelphia 76ers were a money-making machine in the second half last year.  It has continued to be a money-making machine in the second half of 2014-15.  I'll ride this cash cow to another winner Sunday against the Indiana Pacers.

The 76ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have beaten the likes of Detroit, Minnesota, Denver, Charlotte and Washington outright as underdogs during this stretch.  They have only been beaten by more than 11 points twice in their last 13 games overall.

Indiana is in a massive letdown spot tonight.  The Pacers are coming off one of their biggest winw of the season, a 93-86 home victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Well, Lebron James and Kyrie Irving both sat out that game to rest, so it wasn't as big of a win as originally thought.

The Pacers are 2-16 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  The Pacers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 when playing NBA Atlantic division foes.  Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -5

The Atlanta Hawks (46-12) are proud owners of the best record best record in the Eastern Conference.  While they have slowed down a bit, they do come into this game on a three-game winning streak with an 11-point win at Milwaukee, a 17-point home win over Dallas and a 7-point home win over Orlando.

I haven't taken the Hawks in a long time because I believe they were overvalued after a fast start, but tonight I believe they are showing excellent value as only 5-point road favorites over the Miami Heat (25-32).  Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back, but this is a much tougher spot for Miami.

The Heat are already short-handed because their best player in Chris Bosh is out for the season.  Now, the Heat will not only be playing the second of a back-to-back, but also their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a situation as it gets in the NBA.  They won't have anything left in the tank off their deflating 102-104 loss at New Orleans last night, which was playing without three of its best players in Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson.

While this is a second of a back-to-back situation for Atlanta, it is actually just the 3rd game the Hawks will have played in the past six days.  They had two days off in between the Milwaukee and Dallas game.  So, they will be the much more rested team coming into this one.  Plus, the Hawks are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, which is one of the biggest reasons for their success this season.

Atlanta has owned Miami dating back to last year when the Heat had Lebron James.  The Hawks are 4-0 SU in the last four meetings & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  They won by 7 and 13 points at home last year.  They won by 11 points at home and by 10 points on the road in their two meetings this season.  Both of those came when the Heat had a healthy Chris Bosh, too.

The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days rest.  Atlanta is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Hawks are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.   Miami is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 home games.  The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Combine these two trends with the Hawks being 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, and we have a 16-0 system backing Atlanta.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

15* Bucks/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 32-25.  The biggest reason for their improvement is their ability to lock down teams defensively.  In fact, the Bucks rank 2nd in the entire NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 98.7 points per 100 possessions.

The Bucks will be worse offensively but better defensively going forward due to the trade they made before the deadline.  They traded leading scorer Brandon Knight to Phoenix and got back Michael Carter-Williams from the 76ers.  Knight is a pure scorer who will be missed, but Carter-Williams is a better defense and known for his passing.

Knight scored 24 points in the first meeting with the Lakers this season, a 113-105 (OT) home victory on February 4th.  That game was tied 94-94 at the end of regulation for 188 combined points.  That total was set at 192, while this total has been set at 196, which is an obvious sign that there is some value in backing the UNDER in the rematch.

The Lakers are really banged up right now, obviously without leading scorer Kobe Bryant.  But their second-leading scorer is Nick Young (13.4 ppg), who is expected to miss tonight's game with an ankle injury.  Young is one of those guys that can bail out a team deep in the shotclock.  Without Young, this Lakers' offense will really struggle tonight against an elite defensive team in Milwaukee.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Bucks last eight games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Five of the last seven meetings between these teams have seen 192 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 19-9 in Bucks last 28 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles dating back to 2008.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Bulls UNDER 195

The Chicago Bulls are now without Derrick Rose once again due to a knee injury.  They have been UNDER machines here of late and will certainly continue to be now that they don't have their floor general.  They played in a ton of low-scoring games the last two years without Rose, and that will be the case again until he comes back.

The UNDER is 8-2 in Chicago's last 10 games overall.  It has held nine of its last 10 opponents to 101 or fewer points, including seven of those to under 100.  However, the offense has been held to an average of 86.5 points per game in its last two, and 91 or fewer in three of its past four.

Minnesota played in two shootouts against elite offensive teams in Houston and Phoenix in its first two games back from the All-Star Break.  However, it finally played a good defensive team in Washington last time out, and the result was a 97-77 victory for the Timberwolves for 174 combined points.  I look for this game to follow suit against another elite defensive team in Chicago.

Kevin Garnett was recently traded to Minnesota and made his Timberwolves' debut in that 97-77 win over Washington.  It's no coincidence that the Wolves played arguably their best defensive team of the season.  Garnett demands that his teammates play hard and smart on defense, and that will rub off on the rest of these players going forward.

Chicago is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games versus terrible teams that get outscored by 6-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Chicago.  These teams have combined for 189, 167, 195, 206, 194, 181, and 172 points in their last seven meetings in Chicago.  That's an average of 186.3 combined points per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 194.5

The New York Knicks are one of the worst offensive teams in the league.  They are without Carmelo Anthony for the rest of the season, and they were already a terrible offensive team with him, but they have been atrocious without him.

The Knicks rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 98.4 points per 100 possessions.  Making matters worse is that they play at an extremely slow pace, ranking 28th in the NBA in pace at 93.1 possessions per contest.  They have scored 97 or fewer points in 10 consecutive games during a 1-9 stretch.

The Pistons have been playing in some low-scoring games here of late.  They are averaging 98.4 points in their last five games, but their defense has been solid during this stretch, giving up just 92.8 points on 42.8% shooting in their last five.

What really stood out to me about this play is just how low-scoring this series has been.  In fact, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Pistons and Knicks have combined for 193 or fewer points in all eight contests.  They have combined for 178, 193, 181, 174, 178, 164, 184 and 189 points in those eight games.  That's an average of 180.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five vs. NBA Central opponents.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Knicks last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Pistons last five games overall.  The UNDER is 11-2 in Pistons last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings, and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Detroit.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Warriors/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing the best basketball in the NBA right now.  They have won 17 of their last 19 games overall, and it's no coincidence that this run has coincided with a healthy return of Lebron James.  Rarely will you get the chances to back the Cavs as this short of a favorite, and we'll take advantage Thursday.

Cleveland is not only winning, it is dominating.  In fact, all 17 of its wins during this stretch have come by 5 points or more, including 11 by double-digits.  This team should be a much heavier favorite at home tonight against the Warriors, who have come back down to reality following an epic start.

The Warriors have been overvalued for quite some time now.  They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost at Atlanta by 8 as 2-point favorites, won at New York by 14 as 15.5-point favorites, won at Philadelphia by 5 as 15.5-point favorites, won at Minnesota by 3 as 9-point favorites, beat San Antonio by 11 as 7.5-point favorites, lost at Indiana by 6 as 4-point favorites, and won at Washington by 7 as 7-point favorites during their 1-5-1 ATS stretch.

The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference foes.  Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Cavs are 9-1 ATS in thier last 10 home games.  The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Golden State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  These five trends combine for a 33-2 system backing Cleveland.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 192

The Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz will take part in a defensive battle tonight similar to their first and only meeting of the season.  The Jazz beat the Lakers 94-85 at home on January 16th for 179 combined points.

Utah has been an elite defensive team for quite some time now.  Even more so since they traded Enes Kanter to the Thunder and inserted Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  The Jazz have limited opponents to a league-low 93.4 points per game on 43.2 percent shooting while going 15-15 in their last 30 games overall.  

Utah is giving up 86.0 points per game in its last five.  It held Dallas to 87 points, Portland to 76 points, and San Antonio to 81 points in its last three games overall.  Those are three elite offensive teams, so it's not like the Jazz are limiting weak competition, either. Gobert is averaging 3.9 blocks shots in 10 starts and has held opponents to 37.7 percent shooting at the rim, the lowest mark in the league.

Utah is a perfect 9-0 to the UNDER versus terrible defensive teams that allow 103-plus points per game this season.  We're seeing an average of 187.5 points per game in this spot.  The Jazz are 15-1 to the UNDER after having won two of their last three games this season.  The UNDER is 9-1-2 in Lakers last 12 vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on 76ers/Bucks UNDER 188.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season at 31-25 on the season.  Their improvement is due to their defense more than anything.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 98.9 points per 100 possessions.

Their offense has been decent, but they took a big hit when they traded leading scorer Brandon Knight to the Phoenix Suns.  They got back Michael Carter-Williams in return, and he is a solid player, but he's more known for his defense and passing than his scoring.  Carter-Williams will only make the Bucks a better defensive team, and he's expected to make his Milwaukee debut tonight.

The Philadelphia 76ers (12-44) are obviously atrocious.  They have actually played respectable defense this season, giving up 101.0 points per game.  But their offense only averages 90.4 points on 41.2% shooting, and 86.5 points on 39.8% shooting on the road.  The 76ers rank last in the NBA in offensive efficiency by far, averaging 92.1 points per 100 possessions.

These two teams have already met twice this season, and both were extremely low-scoring affairs.  Milwaukee won 97-77 on the road on January 7th for 174 combined points and 93-81 at home on October 31st for 174 combined points.  I look for this third meeting to follow suit.  Also, the UNDER is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee is 8-1 to the UNDER when playing a terrible team that wins 25% or less of its games this season.  Philadelphia is 11-0 to the UNDER after allowing 60 points or more in the first half of last game this season.  These two trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Bulls UNDER 189

The Chicago Bulls have really been clamping down on the defensive end here of late.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall with the UNDER going 7-2 in those nine contests.  They have given up 90.1 points in their last seven contests.

The defense will continue to be one of the best in the league going forward, just as it is every year, but the offense received a serious blow when it was announced Derrick Rose suffered a torn meniscus and will miss significant time once again.  Now, you'll be seeing a lot more of kirk Hinrich at the point, which is bad news for the offense.

Both Charlotte and Chicago like to play at slow tempos.  Chicago will play at an even slower pace now without Rose.  The Hornets rank 23rd in the league in pace at 95.3 possessions per game, while the Bulls rank 19th at 95.7 possessions per game.  Charlotte ranks 29th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 97.5 points per 100 possessions as well.

The Bulls and Hornets have combined for 185 or fewer points in 10 of their last 12 meetings overall.  The UNDER is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings as well.  The Bulls are 15-4 to the UNDER in home games where the total is between 185 and 189.5 over the last two years. 

Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER in home games off a combined score of 175 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Hornets' last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Hornets last five road games.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +7

The Detroit Pistons are once again lacking the respect they deserve as 7-point home underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall and playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into this one.

The Pistons have beaten the likes of Houston (114-101), Miami (108-91), Denver (98-88), Charlotte (106-78), Chicago (100-91) and Washington (106-89) during this stretch.  So, they are not only winning, they are dominating as all six of their victories have come by 9 points or more.  Five of the six came against playoff contenders, too.

Cleveland comes into this game overvalued due to having won 16 of its last 18 games overall.  The Cavaliers are scoring 106.6 points per game since Christmas, but the Pistons are scoring 106.5 points per game since Christmas, just a tick behind.  Detroit is only going to be better going forward as Reggie Jackson gets acclimated to the offense after being traded from Oklahoma City.

Detroit has played Cleveland very tough this season.  It beat the Cavaliers 103-80 on the road on January 28th in a game in which Lebron James did play in.  It only lost 95-103 as 8.5-point home dogs on January 27th, which was about the time it found out it would be without Brandon Jennings for the rest of the year due to injury.  Jackson will fill that all-important point guard spot very well going forward.

Plays on underdogs (DETROIT) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 78-37 (67.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cavs are in a lookahead spot here as they have a huge game against the Warriors on deck at home Thursday night.

Cleveland is 2-11 ATS off two straight games where it was called for 18 or less fouls this season.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  It is winning by an average of 14.7 points per game in this spot.  The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Cavaliers are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Jazz UNDER 188.5

The Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  These teams just met on January 18th in their most recent meeting.  The Spurs won that game 89-69 at home for 158 combined points.  I look for a similar combined point total in this one that fails to even come close to this 188-point mark.

Utah has become a very good defensive team.  It got even better when it traded Enes Kanter to Oklahoma City, which meant that Rudy Gobert would get the start from year on out and more minutes.  Gobert is one of the best-kept secrets in the NBA.  He is averaging an NBA-leading 2.8 blocks since December 12, but he doesn't have much of an offensive game at all like Kanter does.

In their first two games since the trade and the All-Star Break, the Jazz have simply played suffocating defense.  They lost at Dallas 82-87 for 169 combined points, and beat Portland 92-76 at home for 168 combined points.  Gobert had five of the team's seven blocks in the win over the Blazers.

San Antonio will be highly motivated to play hard-nosed defense in this one after giving up 119 points to the Clippers and 110 points to the Warriors in back-to-back losses.  They had allowed an average of 88.0 points per game in their previous four contests against the Heat, Raptors and Pistons. 

After playing two of the better offenses in the NBA the last two games, the Spurs now go up against one of the worst.  The Jazz only score 95.7 points per game and are much worse off now without Kanter.  The Jazz also play at a very slow tempo, ranking 29th in the NBA in pace at 92.7 possessions per game.  The Spurs rank 21st in pace at 95.5 possessions.  San Antonio also scored just 97.6 points per game on the road this season compared to 104.3 at home.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 110 points or more are 25-5 (83.3%) since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that good teams tend to bounce back defensively after a poor effort on defense in their previous game.

The Spurs are 9-1 to the UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Utah is 14-1 to the UNDER after having won two of its last three games this season.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Spurs last eight after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Jazz last 17 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Utah.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 193.5

The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA.  I look for them to take part in a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight in Chicago.

The biggest reason for the Bucks' turnaround this season has been their defense.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Bulls rank 13th in allowing 102.1 points per 100 possessions.

The Bucks traded leading scorer Brandon Knight to Phoenix and got back Michael Carter-Williams as the starting point guard in return.  Well, Carter-Williams is hurt and doubtful to play tonight.  The Bucks have played in two low-scoring games since that trade.  The bet Denver 89-81 at home, and lost to Atlanta 86-97 at home.

This has been a very low-scoring series to say the least.  In fact, each of the last seven meetings between the Bucks and Bulls have seen 192 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 182, 181, 192, 153, 181, 152 and 192 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 176.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 193.5.

The UNDER is 9-1 in Bucks last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER  is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 18-8 in Bucks last 26 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Bulls last eight games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 196

The books have set the bar too high on this total between the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks today.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be a low-scoring, defensive battle Sunday afternoon.

Atlanta (43-12) and Milwaukee (31-23) are two of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  That improvement is more do to their efforts defensively than anything.  The Bucks rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks rank 7th, allowing 100.4 points per 100 possessions.

Milwaukee just traded away leading scorer Brandon Knight to the Phoenix Suns prior to the deadline.  It got back Michael Carter-Williams to play the point in place of Knight.  Unfortunately for the Bucks, Carter-Williams has a foot injury and is expected to sit out today.  I look for them to be lost offensively without a starting point guard.

The Hawks and Bucks have squared off twice this season, and both games easily went UNDER the total.  They combined for 184 points in Atlanta on December 26th and 175 points in Milwaukee a day later on December 27th.  That's an average of 179.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than today's posted total of 196.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, on Sunday games are 63-23 (73.3%) over the last five seasons.  Milwaukee is 21-7 to the UNDER versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 13-3 in Bucks last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.  The UNDER is 17-8 in Bucks last 25 games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Sacramento Kings +10

The Sacramento Kings have new life coming out of the All-Star Break.  Legendary head coach George Karl takes over for the remainder of the season, and it was an excellent debut for the former Seattle Supersonics and Denver Nuggets coach.

The Kings erased a 16-point deficit and overcame 24 turnovers to beat the Boston Celtics 109-101 at home last night.  Under past coaches, this team would have folded with an effort like that, but they fought back for Karl.  I believe this will be a sign of things to come.

The Los Angeles Clippers come into this game way overvalued due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were previously undervalued due to not having Blake Griffin, but after showing they could play well without him, they are now overvalued.  Teams can play well without their superstars for a few games, but over time it starts to catch up to them.

This is also a huge letdown spot for the Clippers.  They are coming off three straight wins against playoff contenders in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio.  They have four straight games against playoff contenders coming up after this, including Monday's tilt with Memphis.  I look for them to take their foot off of the gas enough to fail to cover this massive 10-point spread tonight.

A big reason the Clippers have held their own without Griffin is DeAndre JOrdan.  He has totaled 72 points and 65 rebounds of his last three games.  Well, Sacramento is the best rebounding team in the NBA with a plus-4.5 mark.  Jordan has totaled 12 points and 18 rebounds as the teams have split their first two meetings this season. 

DeMarcus Cousins did not play in the Kings' 108-117 home loss to the Clippers in their last meeting.  He did play in their 98-92 upset win at L.A. in their first, and makes all the difference for this team.  Cousins had 31 points and 15 rebounds against the Celtics last night, while Rudy Gay scored 28.

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS after a game where it gave up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the past three seasons.  Sacramento is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days.  Six of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 9 points or less.  The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Kings Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Bulls UNDER 204.5

The Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns are both going to be giving a little extra on the defensive end of the court tonight.  They are both coming off bad losses in their first games back from the break.  The Suns lost 109-111 at Minnesota, while the Bulls lost 91-100 at Detroit.

Look for Chicago to be especially tough on the defensive end.  It has gone 6-1 to the UNDER in its last seven games overall, allowing 101 or fewer points in seven straight.  It has given up just 90.6 points per game in its last five games overall as it is getting back to a dominant defensive team.

Phoenix is not a very good defensive team, but it is capable of limiting the Bulls, who play at a very slow pace and will control the tempo playing at home.  A big reason I like this UNDER is because the Suns will be out of sync offensively.  They traded away Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas, and now they'll be trying to work in Brandon Knight, Marcus Thornton and Danny Granger to the offense.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was the recent head-to-head series.  The Suns and Bulls have combined for 193 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings.  They have combined for 192, 193, 179 and 178 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of just 185.5 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 204.5.

Phoenix is 11-1 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 8-1 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Suns last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Phoenix is 20-9 to the UNDER in road games against teams with winning records over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven when playing on 0 days' rest.  The UNDER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3

The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as only 3-point road favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  The Nets (21-31) find themselves sitting in 9th place in the Eastern Conference playoff standings, just one game behind the Miami Heat.

That's why they should come out of the break highly motivated for a victory.  Plus, they went into the break with three straight losses, all of which came on the road to playoff contenders in Washington, Milwaukee and Memphis.  I look for them to dig down deep to get a win in their first game out of the break.

The Los Angeles Lakers (13-40) have the second-worst record in the Western Conference.  They have lost six straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall coming into this one.  Their last three losses all came by double-digits.  They are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off two or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 55-20 (73.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Nets are 16-4 ATS in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons. 

Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of its last 4 games this season.  Los Angeles is 0-8 ATS in its last eight after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game.  The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Nets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194

The Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  In their first meeting of the season, the Bulls won 102-91 for 193 combined points.  I look for an even lower-scoring game in the second meeting.

The Pistons just traded point guard D.J. Augustin and forward Kyle Singler.  They got Reggie Jackson back in return, but he's not expected to play tonight.  They were already without Brandon Jennings.  That means the Pistons will essentially be without a point guard tonight, which will wreck their offensive production.

The Bulls have really been clamping down defensively here of late.  They have gone 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six games overall while holding all six opponents to 101 or fewer points, and five of those to 99 or less.  They have allowed an average of 88.3 points per game in their last four.

Chicago is 12-4 to the UNDER in road games vs. poor foul-drawing teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws this season.  The Bulls are 17-6 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Chicago is 14-3 to the UNDER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Pistons last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 206

The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors are very familiar with one another right now as this will be their fourth and final meeting of the 2014-15 season.  Familiarity breeds defensive battles, and that will be the case tonight between these teams.

The first two meetings in this series were high-scoring and would have over this 206-point total.  However, they slowed down in the third meeting as the Hawks beat the Raptors 110-89 for 199 combined points.  The Hawks even shot 60.9% from the field in that game and it still only reached 199.

The biggest reason the Hawks have the best record in the East right now is their defense.  They only give up 96.8 points per game on the season and 95.3 points per game at home.  They rank 6th in the league in defensive efficiency this season.

Toronto is 13-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  We're seeing an average of 186.0 combined points per game in this spot in Raptors' games.  The Raptors have been held to 95 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall, and the UNDER is 4-1 in those contests.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Mavericks/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5

The Oklahoma City Thunder return from the All-Star Break in a great position to make the playoffs.  They won five of their final six games before the break to get to 28-25 on the season and just a half-game behind the Phoenix Suns for the No. 8 seed in the West.

The Thunder haven't only been winning here of late, they've been dominating.  Four of their last five wins have come by double-digits, including a 16-point home win over Memphis, a 10-point win at Denver, a 23-point home win over the Clippers, and an 11-point road win at New Orleans.

The Dallas Mavericks are getting healthy coming out of the break.  They are expected to have Rajon Rondo and Tyson Chandler in the lineup for this game.  Amare Stoudemire is also probable after being acquired before the deadline.  While this is good news for the Mavs, it also has them overvalued coming into this game.  They should be more than 5-point dogs against the superior Thunder on the road.

The Thunder are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 meetings with the Mavericks.  Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Thunder are 23-5 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Bet Oklahoma City Thursday.

15* Rockets/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

It's time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, so the betting public has shunned this team here of late.  But keep in mind that they are coming off a grueling 8-game road trip that featured seven games against playoff contenders.

The Clippers did finish the trip with a resounding 115-98 road win over the Dallas Mavericks on Monday.  They have played their last two games without Blake Griffin, and while that is a concern, I don't believe it's as big of a deal as the betting public is making it out to be.  I also look at is as a 'wash' heading into this game with Houston because the Rockets are without Dwight Howard.

What I really like about this play is that it's a very tough situation for the Rockets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning a 127-118 shootout at Phoenix last night.  Without Howard, the Rockets are having to rely on James Harden too much.  He delivered with 40 points in 43 minutes of action last night, but he is running on fumes right now and will be ineffective tonight.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Clippers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Rockets.  These games haven't even been close as the Clippers have won by 17, 11, 8, 13 and 19 points with three of those victories actually coming on the road.  That's an average margin of victory of 13.6 points per game.  Harden has been limited to 18.6 points and 37.0 percent from the floor in those five contests.

Houston is 11-22 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Grizzlies UNDER 190.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have won 13 of their last 15 games overall.  They have done so behind what has been one of the league's best defenses during this stretch.  I look for another solid defensive performance from them tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.

The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Memphis' last 11 games overall.  It currently ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but has been much better than that of late.  The Grizzlies have allowed 94 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games overall, giving up an average of just 86.5 points per game during this stretch.

The Nets are no defensive juggernauts by any means, and Memphis may put up a decent point total, but I just don't expect this Brooklyn offense to have much success.  The Nets are a tired team right now as this will be their 4th game in 5 days.  I don't expect the fatigue to affect their defense, but it will affect their offense quite a bit.

Both of these teams like to play at slow paces.  Memphis ranks 26th in the league in pace, averaging 94.1 possessions per game.  Brooklyn ranks 25th in pace at 94.2 possessions per game.  The Nets aren't going to look to run at all because of how tired they are right now.  This game will be played in the half court from start to finish, which definitely favors the UNDER.

The last five meetings between Brooklyn and Memphis have average 180.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.5.  Plus, this is the highest posted total set in this series in any of the last seven meetings.  That fact alone shows you there's some value with the UNDER.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Nets last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Nets last six games playing on 0 rest.  The UNDER is 16-7 in Nets last 23 road games.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Grizzlies last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Grizzlies last 11 overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Grizzlies last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last four vs. Eastern Conference.  These last four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Kings/Bulls UNDER 198

The Chicago Bulls certainly have an improved offense this season with Derrick Rose back healthy and the addition of Pau Gasol, but make no mistake about it, this team is still defense first.  That has really started to show here of late.

After a poor start to the season defensively, the Bulls have picked it up on that end of the floor of late.  They are 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 games overall.  They have allowed an average of just 92.3 points per game in their last four contests.

The Sacramento Kings have been a great UNDER bet here of late as well.  Indeed, they are 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games overall.  Their defense has been respectable during this stretch as they've played the likes of Cleveland, Indiana, Golden State, Dallas, Utah and Phoenix.

I would consider four of those six teams to be elite offensively, and they held five of those six to 102 points or less.  However, the reason they are on a 6-0 UNDER run is because their offense has been horrid.  The Kings are averaging just 89.7 points in their last six games, not once reaching the 100-point mark.

The Kings could be without two of their top three scorers tonight, which will only make matters more difficult for them.  Rudy Gay (19.9 ppg) missed Sunday's game with a sore left foot and is questionable to return.  Darren Collison (16.1 ppg, 5.6 apg) has missed the last three games with a hip flexor strain and is doubtful to return against the Bulls.

The recent head-to-head history between these teams is what really has me excited about the UNDER.  Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings as they've combined for 191, 181 and 169 points.  That's an average of 180.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.

Sacramento is 10-1 to the UNDER in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Kings last six games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last four games overall.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Clippers +8.5

After seeing the Clippers get destroyed by the Thunder on Sunday in their first game without Blake Griffin, the betting public has been quick to jump on the Dallas Mavericks today.  That has created some excellent line value to pounce on the Clippers as 8.5-point road underdogs in this matchup.

Losing Griffin was a bit of a surprise as the news that he was out until after the All-Star Break wasn't announced until Sunday morning.  The Clippers obviously did not play well in their first game without him, but they'll make the proper adjustments heading into this game tonight.

Plus, I look for the Clippers to dig down a little deeper tonight to try and put an end to their four-game losing streak.  All four losses have come on the road to the Nets, Cavaliers, Raptors and Thunder, so they have obviously been dealt a brutal schedule.  This is the final game of a long seven-game road trip, and the Clippers will be motivated to try and end it on a high note.  With the All-Star Break coming up shortly, I don't expect fatigue to be a factor.

While the Clippers are undervalued due to having lost four straight, the Mavericks are overvalued after winning five of their last six. Well, their five victories have come against the likes of Miami, Orlando, Minnesota, Sacramento and Portland.  The win over the Blazers came at home in overtime, and it represents the only playoff team they have beaten during this stretch. 

In fact, the Mavericks are just 1-5 straight up in their last six games against teams with winning records.  While the Griffin injury is big for the Clippers, the oddsmakers are discounting the Rajon Rondo injury for the Mavericks, which is nearly as big as the loss of Griffin for the Clippers.  It all adds up to the value being with the road underdog tonight.

The Clippers are 7-2 straight up in their last nine meetings with the Mavericks.  Their two losses have come by 6 points at home and by 7 points (in OT) on the road.  So, they have clearly had the Mavericks' number in this series here of late.  In fact, they have not lost by more than 7 points to Dallas in any of their last 11 meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 8.5-point spread.  Roll with the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Bucks UNDER 193.5

The Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  The books have set the bar too high in this game, and we'll take advantage.  They have set the bar too high time and time again for both of these teams when it comes to the point total.

Indeed, the Nets are 31-19 to the UNDER this season, while the Bucks are 30-21 to the UNDER.  The UNDER is 16-6 in Bucks' last 22 games overall, while the UNDER is 4-0 in Nets' last four games overall.  Yet, they continue to inflate the totals of both of these teams here tonight.

The reason the Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the league this season at 28-23 is because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.1 points per 100 possessions.  Amazingly, they have allowed 95 or fewer points in 16 of their last 23 games overall.

The Bucks figure to shut down a Brooklyn team that ranks 24th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 100.0 points per 100 possessions.  Another reason to love the UNDER here is because the Nets play at a slow tempo.  They rank 25th in the league in pace, averaging 94.2 possessions per game.

Many amateur bettors will see the final score of the first meeting between these teams this season and jump on the OVER.  Milwaukee beat Brooklyn 122-118 in double-overtime back on November 19th.  Well, that game was tied 95-95 at the end of regulation for 190 combined points.

Brooklyn is 12-2 to the UNDER in road games following a loss this season.  Milwaukee is 12-2 to the UNDER off a win by 6 points or less this year.  The UNDER is 16-6 in Nets last 22 road games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four Monday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bucks last six vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Bucks last 11 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +10

I realize the Orlando Magic are playing the second of a back-to-back after their tough 97-98 loss to the Chicago Bulls last night.  However, I believe they will be motivated enough to push through the fatigue.  After all, this is still a very young team, so back-to-backs don't bother them as much.

The reason the Magic will be motivated is because they will be looking to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Wizards.  The Wizards are 3-0 against the Magic this season, but those three wins have come by 7, 5 and 2 points.  In fact, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.

Don't be surprised to see the Magic pull off the upset tonight with the way they have been playing here of late.  They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only lost by 7 at Oklahoma City as 10.5-point dogs, by 7 at San Antonio as 13.5-point dogs, by 1 to Chicago as 6-point dogs, and they also beat the Lakers by 6 as 4.5-point favorites.  As you can see, they have hung right with some of the best teams in the league here of late.

The Wizards are not playing well at all right now, which is why they should not be laying double-digit points to the Magic.  Washington is 1-5 straight up in its last six games overall.  It is also 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games overall, yet it continues to be overvalued tonight against the Magic laying such a big number.

The Magic are a sensational 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  This trend just goes to show their ability to hang with good teams on the road.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.  Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5

Due to owning the best record in the NBA at 42-9 on the season, the Atlanta Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are only 2-point road underdogs against one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Memphis Grizzlies today when it should be much higher.

Atlanta is overvalued due to going 17-0 in the month of January.  This is a team that has continued to win, but keep in mind that nine of its last 10 games have been at home.  The only road game during this stretch resulted in a 100-115 loss at New Orleans.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Hawks, too.  They are coming off arguably their biggest win of the season as they beat the Golden State Warriors 124-116 on Friday night.  The Warriors own the best record in the West, so it's only human nature for the Hawks to suffer a letdown off such a huge win that they believe validated them.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, come into this game hungry for a victory after blowing a late lead on Friday to lose in Minnesota 89-90.  That was a rare loss for this team.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are 12-2 in their last 14 games overall, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  That includes wins over the likes of the Suns (twice), Blazers, Raptors, Mavericks and Thunder.

Memphis has been playing its most suffocating defense of the season here of late.  It has allowed 94 or fewer points in eight of its last nine games overall, giving up an average of 86.3 points per game during this stretch.  Nothing is coming easy against this team, which features three of the best defenders at their positions in Mike Concey, Tony Allen and Marc Gasol.

Memphis is 21-5 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.2 points per game.  The Grizzlies are 14-5 against the East this season, including 8-1 at home.  Zach Randolph has averaged 20.1 points and 14.9 boards in his last eight home games.  Atlanta did beat Memphis 96-86 at home in their first meeting, but the Grizzlies were on the tail end of a 4-7 stretch and were without Randolph for most of it.  Now healthy, the Grizzlies will be out for revenge in this one.

Memphis is 73-48 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Memphis is 6-2-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday.

20* Clippers/Thunder NBA on ABC GAME OF THE MONTH on UNDER 210.5

The books have set the bar too high with this total this afternoon between the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder.  Both teams will be inspired to get after it defensively because each is coming off losses due to poor performances defensively.

The Clippers lost at Toronto 107-123 last time out, while the Thunder lost to the Pelicans 113-116 at home.  These were uncharacteristic defensive performances for both teams, and I fully expect both head coach Doc Rivers and head coach Mark Brooks to let their teams know about how unacceptable they were.

The Clippers have allowed 100 or fewer points in six of their last 10 games overall, while the Thunder have allowed 100 or fewer points in five of their last six games.  That just goes to show how uncharacteristic those defensive efforts really were as they were an aberration rather than a normality.

What stands out to me is that this has been a low-scoring series here of late in comparison to today's 210.5-point total.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scored of 183, 202, 209 and 200 points.  That's an average of 198.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points less than today's posted total.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Clippers last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 21-7-2 in Clippers last 30 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Clippers last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last five vs. NBA Northwest Division foes.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Clippers last five Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games following a loss.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These last five trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after playing the Thunder in a home-and-home situation on Wednesday and Friday.

After losing to the Thunder 91-102 at home on Wednesday, the Pelicans came back with a huge 116-113 road win last night as Anthony Davis hit a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.  After such an emotional win over the team that's trailing them in the Western Conference standings, the Pelicans are in a clear letdown spot here tonight.

New Orleans will be extremely tired for this game tonight, while Chicago comes in well-rested and ready to go.  The Bulls last played on Wednesday, so they have had two days off in between games.  They also come in hungry for a win after dropping each of their last three games, all on the road to the Lakers, Suns and Rockets.

Chicago is one of the few teams that has actually played better on the road than at home this season.  It is 17-9 in all road games this year.  That includes recent road wins over the Mavericks and Warriors, who are two of the better teams in the Western Conference.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off a road win by 3 points or less are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six visits to New Orleans.  The road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Rockets UNDER 202.5

At 27-22 on the season, the young Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this year.  The reason they have been so successful this season is because first-year head coach Jason Kidd has gotten his team to play defense, and he also has the luxury of having some freakishly lengthy athletes on his roster.

This may be the best defensive team the Bucks have ever had.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 98.7 points per 100 possessions.  The UNDER is 15-5 in Bucks' last 20 games overall.  They have allowed fewer than 100 points in 14 of their last 20 games, and 105 or fewer in all 20..

The Rockets are no slouches defensively, either.  In fact, they rank right behind Milwaukee in 3rd place in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.4 points per 100 possessions.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Rockets' last five games overall as they have combined with four of their last five opponents for 193 points or fewer.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, on Friday nights are 204-125 (62%) since 1996.  Houston is 18-7 to the UNDER in its last 25 home games.  Milwaukee is 12-3 to the UNDER in its last 15 games when playing on one days' rest.

Houston is 7-0 to the UNDER in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.  We're seeing an average of 187.3 combined points per game int his spot.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Bucks last seven when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the UNDER tonight.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Timberwolves UNDER 195.5

I look for the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves to take part in a defensive battle tonight in Minnesota.  These teams have consistently played in low-scoring affairs in recent meetings, and I look for that trend to continue in this one.

Indeed, the UNDER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in this series, including a PERFECT 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Minnesota dating back to 2011.  The Grizzlies and Timberwolves have combined for 195 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 meetings overall, which would be an 11-2 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 195.5.

Memphis continues to be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency this season despite having some key injuries to several of their best defenders throughout the course of the season.  Now healthy, the Grizzlies have allowed 94 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are giving up just 85.9 points per game during this stretch.

Minnesota has had a lot of trouble putting the ball in the basket here of late.  It has scored 94 or fewer points in seven of its last 10 games overall.  It is scoring a woeful 91.3 points per game during this 10-game stretch.  The Timberwolves also rank 27th in offensive efficiency, averaging 99.0 points per 100 possessions.

Memphis is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 103-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 9-1 to the UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two years.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Grizzlies last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Timberwolves last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Warriors/Hawks Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 214.5

This is a battle between the top team in the Western Conference in the Golden State Warriors up against the top team in the Eastern Conference in the Atlanta Hawks.  This is a highly-anticipated game to say the least, and when two great teams like this get together, defense usually wins out.

The biggest reason both of these teams sit atop the standings in their respective conferences is because of the way they play defense.  The Warriors rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.3 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks rank 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing 100.0 points per 100 possessions.

The reason this number has been set so high is because both teams have played in some high-scoring affairs here of late.  The Warriors are 6-2 to the OVER in their last eight games overall, and they're coming off a 242-point effort with the Mavericks.  The Hawks are 5-1 to the OVER in their last six games overall.  These recent OVER streaks for both teams have forced oddsmakers to inflate this total, providing us with some excellent value to swoop in and back the UNDER.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings in comparison to this 214.5-point total.  The Warriors and Hawks have combined for 208 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings as the UNDER has gone 5-1-1 during this stretch.  They have combined to average 190.6 points per game in their last seven meetings, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more are 26-6 (81.2%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 41-18 in Warriors last 59 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3

The Orlando Magic are highly motivated to put an end to their currently 10-game losing streak.  Nine of those 10 losses have come against playoff contenders, so the streak has been more due to a brutal schedule than anything.  The Magic finally get a break in their schedule tonight as they host the lowly Los Angeles Lakers.

Orlando has been playing some very good basketball here of late despite losing.  It went on the road and played Oklahoma City to a 97-104 game as 10.5-point underdogs.  It then went to San Antonio and only lost 103-110 as 13.5-point dogs last time out.

The Lakers haven't been playing any better than the Magic here of late.  They have lost 11 of their last 12 games overall.  Los Angeles is 0-8 in its last eight road games with all eight losses coming by 4 points or more, including seven by 8 or more points.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 meetings.  Not only are the Lakers without Kobe Bryant, they are also playing without starting center Jordan Hill.  Meanwhile, the Magic are pretty much at full strength health-wise.

The Lakers are 1-8 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog this season.  Los Angeles is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Lakers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +3

The Dallas Mavericks are in a very tough spot tonight.  They are coming off a 114-128 road loss to the Golden State Warriors last night in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Mavericks blew an early 20-plus point lead as they were eventually blown out in the 4th quarter.

After playing the top team in the West last night, this is clearly a hangover spot for the Mavericks.  Plus, they'll be running on fumes.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Making matters worse for the Mavericks is the fact that they are short-handed right now.  Their bench has no depth ever since trading for Rajon Rondo and sending Brandon Wright and Jae Crowder away.  Now, Rondo is out indefinitely with an injury.  The Mavericks as a whole just aren't going to have enough energy to put forth a very good effort tonight.

Yes, the Sacramento Kings aren't playing great coming in as they have lost nine of their last 10 games overall.  However, all nine of their losses have come against playoff contenders, including a 104-108 (OT) home loss to the Mavericks back on January 13th.  That sets the Kings up for a revenge spot here.

Yes, the Kings have lost five straight meetings with the Mavericks, but they have played them extremely tough in all five meetings.  They lost all five of those games by 8 points or less.  They lost by 4, 8, 2, 3, and 4 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  They've obviously proven they can play the Mavs tough, and given this horrible situation for Dallas, I look for the Kings to get over the hump and get a win in this series tonight.

Dallas is 5-14 ATS after allowing 105 or more points this season.  The Mavericks are 8-17 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 99 or more points per game this year.  Dallas is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 vs. Western Conference foes.  The Mavericks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Kings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.

15* Mavs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 217

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors.  Look for both teams to bring their "A" games defensively on this National TV stage as this game will be televised on ESPN.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings when comparing the results with the total sets.  The Mavericks and Warriors are 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven games overall.  The only exception was a 122-120 overtime win for Golden State in the final meeting of 2013-14 in a game that was tied 108-108 at the end of regulation.

Not counting overtime, the Mavericks and Warriors have combined for 216 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last 13 meetings.  They have combined for 203, 216, 193, 188, 202, 207, 197, 180, 198, 215, 198, 191 and 174 points in their last 13 meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 197.1 points per game in their last 13 meetings.

The Mavericks are playing without starting point guard Rajon Rondo right now.  They could also be without backup PG Devin Harris, who is questionable with an knee injury.  Their offense is going to have a hard time operating against a Golden State defense that ranks 1st in the league in efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.

Dallas is 13-4 to the UNDER when revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season.  Golden State is 23-11 to the UNDER In home games after a combined score of 205 or more points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Mavericks last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Mavericks last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Warriors last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies/Jazz UNDER 190

The Memphis Grizzlies square off against the Utah Jazz tonight in what I fully expect to be a defensive battle.  Both of these teams like to slow it down and play at below-average league paces, and that will help aid the UNDER tonight.

Utah ranks 28th in the league in pace, averaging just 92.9 possessions per game.  Memphis is just ahead of the Jazz at 26th in pace, averaging 94.2 possessions per game.  It's no wonder that these teams usually play in low-scoring affairs when they get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Jazz and Grizzlies.  They have combined for 188, 178, 182, 198, 156, 174 and 185 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of just 180.1 points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 190.  This 190-point total is also the second-highest total in the last seven meetings, so there's clearly some value with the UNDER here.

The Jazz have been a much better defensive team since giving underrated big man Rudy Gobert more playing time.  They have held 12 of their last 17 opponents to fewer than 100 points.  The Grizzlies have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 98 points or fewer.  They are giving up just 85.3 points per game in their last seven contests, which has coincided with the healthy return of defensive stopper Tony Allen.

Memphis is 9-0 to the UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 8-0 to the UNDER in road games after two straight games where they were called for 18 or less fouls over the last two years.  The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Grizzlies last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Utah.  These five trends combine for a perfect 36-0 system backing the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Bucks UNDER 192.5

Quietly, the Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference this season.  They certainly aren't doing it with offense as they average just 98.4 points per game on the year.  They have scored fewer than 100 points in 13 of their last 15 games overall.

The Bucks are winning because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 98.7 points per 100 possessions.  They have held 14 of their last 19 opponents to 95 or fewer points.  As a result, the UNDER is 15-4 in Bucks' last 19 games overall, yet the oddsmakers continue to fail to adjust.

The Lakers have really struggled offensively since losing Kobe Bryant to a season-ending injury.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the Lakers' last six games overall.  They have scored 92 or fewer points in five of their last six games.  They did score 123 in a double-OT win over Chicago, but that game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation.  Not counting overtime, the Lakers are averaging 87.0 points per game in their last six games.

The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Lakers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Lakers last 12 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Lakers last 17 road games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Bucks last 9 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1

The New York Knicks come into this game against the Boston Celtics playing their best basketball of the season.  As a result, they are showing awesome value as only 1-point home favorites over the Celtics in this one.

Indeed, the Knicks are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  This run has coincided with a healthy return of Carmelo Anthony, as well as the additions of key role players Langston Galloway and Lance Thomas.  The Knicks are 4-0 in their last four home games with a 9-point win over the Pelicans, a 7-point win over the Magic, an 8-point win over the Thunder, and a 12-point win over the Lakers.

The Boston Celtics have pretty much waved the white flag with all of the players they have traded away this season, including Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green.  They are struggling here of late, going 0-3 in their last three games overall.  They lost by 12 at Minnesota, by 6 at home to Houston, and by 8 at home to Miami.

This has been a one-sided series here of late to say the least.  The Knicks are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in thier last three meetings with the Celtics despite playing two of those three on the road.  They won 114-88 at home, 116-92 on the road, and 101-95 on the road in those three meetings, outscoring the Celtics by an average of 18.7 points per game.

New York is 21-9 ATS when playing against a bad team (win percentage 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 11-2 ATS in home games after covering 4 of their last 5 games against the spread over the last three years.  The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Take the Knicks Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

I fully expect the Atlanta Hawks' 19-game winning streak to come to an end tonight on the road against the New Orleans Pelicans.  I'll just take the points for some added insurance in case it's a close game.

The Hawks have been overvalued for the last week-plus after setting an NBA record for most consecutive ATS covers with 15 in a row to start this 19-game streak.  However, they have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4.  They only beat Minnesota by 12 as 17.5-point favorites, Brooklyn by 11 as 14-point favorites, Portland by 6 as 5-point favorites, and Philadelphia by 6 as 16.5-point favorites.

The Hawks have won each of their last seven at home, but now they'll have to hit the road tonight against a New Orleans team that has been awesome at home this year.  Indeed, the Pelicans are 16-6 straight up and 14-7-1 ATS in all home games this season.  They are outscoring opponents by an average of 6.8 points per game at home.

The Pelicans come into this game playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat the Lakers (by 16), Mavericks (by 3), 76ers (by 25) and Clippers (by 5) at home, and the Timberwolves (by 8) on the road.  They did lose to the Nuggets (by 8) at home for their only loss during this stretch.

New Orleans is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Atlanta.  What's most impressive about that is three of the four games were played on the road.  Yes, the Pelicans did lose 91-100 at Atlanta in their first meeting of 2014-15, but they only scored 28 points in the first half and did a good job of fighting their way back into the game.  Look for them to play a full four quarters in this one and to pull off the upset.

Plays on home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, in February games are 44-14 (75.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  New Orleans is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 home games.  The Pelicans are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  Roll with the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +9

They Los Angeles Clippers are way overvalued tonight as 9-point road favorites over the Brooklyn Nets.  The Clippers are in their 4th game of a long eight-game road trip.  After a 5-point win over Utah and a 5-point loss to New Orleans to start the trip, the Clippers put together arguably their best performance of the season in a 20-point win at San Antonio.

They are getting too much respect because of that 20-point win.  That win over the defending champs sets the Clippers up for a letdown spot here.  This is also a lookahead spot because their next game is at Cleveland.  That makes this an extremely vulnerable spot for the Clippers, and we'll look to fade them because of it.

The Nets currently sit in 9th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games behind the Charlotte Hornets for 8th place.  They clearly have plenty to play for as a result, and they have been playing some solid basketball here of late against the best in the East despite coming out on the losing end.

Brooklyn has lost four in a row coming in, but it did hang right with Atlanta and Toronto in its last two games.  It only lost 102-113 at Atlanta as 14-point underdogs, and 122-127 (OT) at home against Toronto as 7.5-point dogs.  The Nets are also well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days.  Meanwhile, the Clippers will be playing their 6th game in 9 days.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  The home team has won each of the last eight games between the Clippers and Nets.  Brooklyn has won six straight and 14 of its last 15 home meetings with Los Angeles.  That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Nets if there was no spread in this game, but add in the 9-point line and you can see that they are showing excellent value given the head-to-head history.

Plays on home underdogs of 9 or more points (BROOKLYN) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 36-8 (81.8%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nets are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game.  Take the Nets Monday.

15* Suns/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +9.5

Due to their torrid start to the season that has them sitting in first place in the Western Conference with a 36-8 record, the Golden State Warriors are way overvalued right now.  I have faded them with success here recently, and will continue to do so tonight.

The Warriors are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only beat the Celtics 114-111 as 18-point home favorites, lost to the Bulls 111-113 as 11-point home favorites, and then lost to the Jazz 100-110 last night as 10-point road favorites.

The Phoenix Suns continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the league.  They have won 16 of their last 22 games overall  to get to 28-20 on the season and in 8th place in the Western Conference.  The Suns also played last night in a 99-93 win over the Bulls.  However, I don't mind backing this team on the second of a back-to-back because they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA.

The Suns have played the Warriors extremely tough in recent meetings.  They are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Golden State.  Two of their three losses have come by 6 points or fewer, including a 113-107 loss as 10-point underdogs in their last trip to Golden State.  The Suns won their only meeting with the Warriors this season 107-95 at home.

Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more three straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Suns are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS loss.  Phoenix is 27-13 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Suns Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs -5

The San Antonio Spurs are finally healthy and playing like the defending champions that they are as a result.  The Spurs have won seven of their last eight games overall with all seven of those victories coming by 5 points or more, including five by 9 or more.

The defending champs certainly come into this game well-rested and ready to go.  They have had two days' rest since last playing Charlotte on Wednesday.  This will also be just their 2nd game in the past 6 days.

The same cannot be said for the Clippers, who are a very tired team right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.  They lost a 103-108 heartbreaker to the Pelicans last night despite being 8-point favorites as they started to show signs of wearing down.  They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three.  They only beat the Nuggets by 4 as 14-point favorites and the Jazz by 5 as 6.5-point favorites.

San Antonio simply has Los Angeles' number.  The Spurs have won four straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Clippers.  Three of those victories came by double-digits as well.  They beat the Clippers 125-118 as 1-point home favorites in their last meeting despite playing without Khawi Leonard, who is back healthy now.

The Clippers are 12-25 ATS in their last 37 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings, and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 visits to San Antonio.  Bet the Spurs Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +17

The Atlanta Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are currently riding an 18-game winning streak that saw them cover an NBA-record 15 straight games to start the streak.

Finally, the odds have caught up to them.  The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games during the streak.  They only won by 12 as 17.5-point favorites over Minnesota, by 11 as 14-point favorites over Brooklyn, and by 6 as 6.5-point favorites over Portland.

Now, the Hawks will find it extremely difficult to get motivated to play the lowly Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  That's especially the case considering they recently beat the 76ers by 18 during this winning streak.  I look for them to come out flat off that big win over Portland last night, and to not bring the kind of effort it will take to put away Philadelphia by 17-plus points.

The 76ers come into this game playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have won each of their last two games outright as underdogs.  They beat the Pistons 89-69 as 8-point home underdogs on January 28th, and then came back with a 103-94 upset win over the Timberwolves as 4-point dogs last night.

Philadelphia hasn't lost by more than 16 points in Atlanta in any of the last eight meetings.  It has won three games outright as underdogs in those eight meetings.  The five losses came by 16, 8, 10, 11 and 5 points.  I look for the 76ers to hang tough again Saturday.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, on Saturday games are 44-20 (68.8%) ATS since 1996.  Atlanta is 24-42 ATS in its last 66 home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse.  The 76ers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 0 days rest.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the 76ers Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards -3

This is a very tough spot for the Toronto Raptors and a great one for the Washington Wizards.  I'll lay the small number on the home favorite Wizards because of it tonight.

Toronto comes in overvalued as it is due to having won five straight, but all five of those wins came against Philadelphia, Deetroit, Indiana, Sacramento and Brooklyn, all of which currently have losing records.  Three of those victories came by 5 points or less.

The reason this is a tough spot for the Raptors is because they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  Making matters worse is the fact that they played an overtime game last night against the Nets.  Kyle Lowry played 44 minutes and DeMar DeRozan played 41.  The Raptors could be without starting center Jonas Valanciunas, who suffered an ankle injury against Brooklyn and is questionable.

Washington comes in undervalued after failing to cover the spread in each of its last five games overall.  Well, four of those games were on the road, and all five were against Western Conference teams.  It was also a 4 games in 5 days stretch.  Now, the Wizards come in refreshed and ready to go after having two days' rest since last playing on Wednesday.  They will clearly bring more energy to the court tonight.

Washington is 18-6 at home this season.  Toronto is 22-40 ATS in its last 62 games following four or more consecutive wins.  The Raptors are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Toronto is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Wizards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Wizards Saturday.

15* Bulls/Suns ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Phoenix -5.5

The Phoenix Suns look to cap off a record eight-game home stand with one final victory Friday night.  They have gone 5-2 through the first seven games of this home stand, and they have won 15 of their last 21 games overall.  This team continues to go under the radar as one of the better teams in the NBA that gets no respect.

I like their chances of getting a victory tonight by 6-plus points against a tired Chicago Bulls team that will just have nothing left in the tank.  The Bulls will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Making matters worse for Chicago is that it has played back-to-back overtime games, including a double-OT loss to the lowly Lakers 118-123 last night.  Jimmy Butler played 49 minutes, Derrick Rose played 42, Joakim Noah played 42, and Paul Gasol played 44.  Now, Butler is questionable to play tonight due to a knee injury suffered against the Lakers.

Phoenix is a bad team for Chicago to have to play tonight when fatigued.  That's because the Suns play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.  Indeed, they rank 2nd in the league in pace at 99.2 possessions per game.  They also rank 6th in offensive efficiency, scoring 107.1 points per 100 possessions.  They average 107.3 points per game this year.

The Suns are averaging 112.8 points on 49.2 percent shooting while winning eight of their last 10 at home.  With the Super Bowl being played in nearby Glendale, the Suns should have a great crowd for this game tonight and a huge home-court advantage.

The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games overall.  The Bulls are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.  The Suns are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Take the Suns Friday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Atlanta Hawks are way overvalued right now due to their franchise-record 17-game winning streak coming into this game.  The Blazers could not be more undervalued right now due to losing six of their last eight games overall.  This is the perfect storm that has created a ton of line value for us to back the Blazers as 7-point road dogs.

Portland (32-14) is still one of the best teams in the NBA despite this recent poor stretch.  It's not like the Blazers are getting blown out, either.  Five of their last six losses have come by 6 points or less.  They have simply been on the wrong end of all their close games here of late, and they have played some stiff competition as well as five of the losses have come to the Clippers, Spurs, Grizzlies, Suns and Cavs.

After covering an NBA-record 15 straight games, the evidence of the Hawks being overvalued has shown in their last two.  They only beat the Timberwolves by 12 as 17.5-point favorites and the Nets by 11 as 14-point favorites, failing to cover the spread in each.  Now, they take a big step up in competition against the Blazers.

I look at this as a letdown spot for Atlanta.  Yesterday, it had three players voted into the All-Star Game in Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap and Al Horford.  While all three are deserving on a 38-8 squad that is in first place in the East, I can see it working against them tonight.  Getting three All-Stars gives the Hawks a sense of validity, or that their job has been done.  I look for them to take their foot off the gas tonight, while getting a monster effort from the motivated Blazers.

Atlanta is 1-13 ATS in home games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last three seasons.  It is actually getting outscored by an average of 4.6 points per game in this spot.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Blazers Friday.

15* Nuggets/Grizzlies TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Denver +10.5

There's no question that the Denver Nuggets are in a tough spot here physically.  This will be their 4th game in 5 days after beating the New Orleans Pelicans last night on the road.  However, I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted for this tough spot for the Nuggets, and there's clearly value in backing them as double-digit underdogs to the Memphis Grizzlies.

Denver has been extremely competitive over the past month despite having lost seven straight prior to its win over the Pelicans last night.  In fact, the Nuggets have only lost once by more than 10 points in their last 15 games overall.  That was a road loss to the Golden State Warriors, who are the best team in the NBA up to this point.  That's also a 14-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.

Memphis is getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to having won four straight and eight of its last nine games overall.  It is coming off a shocking 109-90 upset win at Dallas last time out, which is only adding to the inflation of this line.  This could be a potential letdown spot for the Grizzlies off that big win and with Oklahoma City on deck.

Denver has played Memphis extremely tough in recent years.  It beat Memphis 114-85 at home in its first and only meeting of 2014-15 on January 3rd.  The Nuggets have won five of their last nine meetings with the Grizzlies outright while going 6-3 ATS.  In fact, in the last 26 meetings, the Nuggets have lost to the Grizzlies by more than 10 points only once.  That's a 25-1 system backing the Nuggets pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.

Plays against home teams (MEMPHIS) - revenging a loss vs opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Memphis is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Grizzlies could be without two starters in PG Mike Conley and SG Tony Allen tonight, who are both listed as questionable after sitting out last game.  Take the Nuggets Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +4.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are certainly one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 23-22 overall and a ridiculous 30-14-1 ATS in 45 games.  While there was value in backing them during the first half of the year, that value has all been zapped up now.  Milwaukee has no business being the favorite on the road to the Orlando Magic tonight.

While the Bucks come into this game getting a ton of love from the betting public, the Magic are getting none.  That's because they have lost six straight and 12 of their last 14 games overall coming in.  They have at least been competitive during this stretch as five of their last six losses have come by 10 points or less.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Milwaukee and Orlando.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings.  In fact, Orlando is 17-0 straight up in its last 17 home meetings with Milwaukee dating back to 2005.  If that's not great evidence as to why you should back the Magic, then I don't know what is.

Orlando is 10-1 ATS in home games after having lost 12 or more of its last 15 games over the past two seasons.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Orlando.  The Magic beat the Bucks 101-85 at home in their lone meeting of 2014-15.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +9

The New York Knicks could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  At 8-37 on the season, they are tied with the Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record in the Eastern Conference.  There's no question in my mind that the Knicks are much better than their record would indicate.

New York simply lost a ton of close games in the first half of the season, and had some key injuries to boot.  Well, this team is starting to get healthy, and the results have been much better here of late.  Carmelo Anthony is back in the fold now, and they are getting some key contributions from players they recently signed like Langston Galloway (12.1 ppg in 8 games) and Lance Thomas (9.8 ppg in five games).

The Knicks are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat New Orleans 99-92 as 4-point home dogs, Philadelphia 98-91 as 3-point road favorites, and Orlando 113-106 as 3-point home dogs.  Their only loss came at Charlotte 71-76 as 9-point road dogs in a game where Carmelo Anthony sat out since it was the second of a back-to-back.

Anthony returns to the lineup tonight and makes all the difference for this team when he's in there.  Plus, the Knicks come in well-rested and ready to go as they have had a whopping three days' rest since last playing Charlotte on Saturday.  There's no question they will the be the fresher, more prepared team.

Oklahoma City is a tired squad right now, and it's starting to show in its play.  The Thunder will be playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost at Atlanta 93-103, at Cleveland 98-108, and only beat lowly Minnesota 92-84 as 13-point home favorites during this stretch.

Kevin Durant did sit out against the Timberwolves due to a sore toe as he was a late scratch in that game.  Well, Durant isn't expected to play tonight either, and there's no way the Thunder should be this heavily favored on the road without him.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

The Thunder are just 10-15 SU & 8-16-1 ATS on the road this season.  OKC is 4-13 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Thunder are 4-12 ATS versus good ball handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this year.  The Thunder are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to New York.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7

The Toronto Raptors certainly overachieved in the first third of the season.  They opened 24-7 and were in first place in the Eastern Conference.  As expected, they weren't able to keep up the torrid pace they were on, and they have been overvalued ever since.

Indeed, the Raptors are just 6-8 straight up and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Their six wins during this stretch came against Philadelphia (twice), Boston, Milwaukee, Detroit and Indiana.  Only Milwaukee (23-22) has a winning record, while the other four teams are all at least 11 games below .500.

Yes, the Sacramento Kings do not have a very good record at all at 16-27, but they also play in the stacked Western Conference.  They would be a playoff contender if they played in the East.  They have gone 4-2 SU in their last six meetings with the Raptors, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

The main reason I'm on the Kings tonight is the rest factor.  The Kings come into this game on four days' rest, so they will be ready to go following a long layoff.  They will also be motivated for a win after dropping six straight coming in with five of those coming against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  Four of those losses came by single-digits, and three by 4 points or less.

Toronto is in a terrible situation compared to Sacramento in the rest department.  The Raptors will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, which is a very difficult spot in the NBA.  I just don't believe they are going to be able to match the effort they get from the Kings tonight because of it.

Plays on road teams (SACRAMENTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 85-45 (65.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  The Raptors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Western Conference foes.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Cavaliers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland +6

The Portland Trail Blazers (32-13) got some tremendous news when LaMarcus Aldridge announced he wasn't going to have surgery on his hand.  In his first game back from injury, he posted 26 points and nine rebounds in a win over the Wizards on Saturday.  At 32-13, he knows how important it is for the Blazers to to try and get a top-four seed in the West.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are rolling right now, going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  However, with this winning streak comes expectations from oddsmakers that the Cavaliers cannot live up to.  I still don't believe they are as good as the top teams in the West, like Portland.

This is a terrible spot for Cleveland and a great one for Portland.  The Cavaliers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days off a 103-95 win at Detroit last night.  Kyrie Irving played 42 minutes, Lebron James played 36 minutes, and Kevin Love played 32 minutes.  Irving will have to chase around Damian Lillard for four quarters, too, which is a tough task to ask.

It's going to be very hard for the Cavaliers to come back with a great effort tonight given the situation.  They certainly won't be able to match the energy level of the Blazers, who come in on three days' rest after last playing on Saturday.  Plus, the Blazers will be highly motivated after having lost five of their last seven games overall.  Four of those five losses came by 6 points or less.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 7-1 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Cavs, including a 101-82 home win over Cleveland in their first meeting of 2014-15.  Take the Blazers Wednesday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +10

The Chicago Bulls have been one of the best road teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 16-6 away from home this year where they are outscoring teams by an average of 3.3 points per game.  They are one of the rare exception of an NBA team that plays better on the road than they do at home.

I like what I've seen from Chicago here of late.  It put together back-to-back upset wins over San Antonio (104-81) as 5.5-point home dogs and Dallas (102-98) as 5.5-point road dogs.  The Bulls did come back and lose to Miami at home last time out, but that was clearly a letdown spot off those two huge wins.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against the Warriors as well.

The Warriors have the best record in the NBA at 36-6.  They have also gone a ridiculous 28-12-2 ATS in all games this season.  Well, now that we are halfway through the season, the odds have finally caught up to them.  The betting public continues to back them with regularity, but they are simply laying numbers that they cannot cover with any kind of consistency, including tonight.

Last time out, the Warriors came in as 18-point favorites over the Celtics on Sunday.  It was only the second time all year they were favored by 18 points or more.  They failed to cover, and barely won the game 114-111 at home against a Boston team that is nowhere near the caliber of this Chicago squad.

Chicago will be out for revenge from a 102-112 home loss to the Warriors in their first meeting this season.  It is 19-8 ATS revenging a loss by 10 points or more against an opponent over the last two seasons.  Tom Thibodeau is 39-21 ATS in road gams when playing 8 or more games in 14 days as the coach of Chicago.  Thibodeau is 55-32 ATS in road games after having won two of their last three games as the coach of the Bulls.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Minnesota Timberwolves +16

The Minnesota Timberwolves (7-36) are showing tremendous value tonight as 16-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them as massive dogs to an Oklahoma City team that just isn't quite right.

The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games as they have been very competitive against some quality teams.  They beat Indiana 110-101 as 11-point road dogs to start the streak.  They also lost at Phoenix 99-110 as 14-point road dogs, beat Denver 113-105 as 11.5-point road dogs, and lost to Atlanta 100-112 as 17.5-point road dogs.

Oklahoma City is coming off back-to-back blowout losses at Atlanta (93-103) as 4-point dogs and at Cleveland (98-108) as 3-point dogs.  Now, the Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  This is about as tough of a situation as it gets.  After a five-game road trip, they will struggle in their first game back homel, which is also a difficult spot in the NBA.

Minnesota has played Oklahoma City pretty tough here of late.  It has only lost by more than 10 points once in its last six meetings with the Thunder.  The Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  OKC is 0-6 ATS in its last six Monday games.  Take the Timberwolves Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +12.5

The Orlando Magic (15-32) have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Whenever a team gets on an ATS losing streak like the one the Magic are on, the betting public tends to look to fade them.  As a result, teams like this start to show some pretty good value against the spread.

I believe that's the case here with the Magic, who have lost four of their last five games by 10 points or less, so they have at least been competitive.  One of those losses was a 96-106 home loss to Memphis on January 16th just 10 days ago.  Look for the Magic to be out for revenge in the rematch here.

The Memphis Grizzlies have won six of their last seven games overall while going 5-1-1 ATS.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them.  Well, only one of those six wins during this stretch came by more than 12 points.  That was a 101-83 home victory over the lowly Philadelphia 76ers as 17.5-point favorites last time out.

Orlando has played Memphis very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, Orlando has only lost once to Memphis by more than 12 points in the last 16 meetings in this series.  That makes for a 15-1 system backing the Magic pertaining to tonight's 12.5-point spread.

Memphis is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 17-8 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Grizzlies are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Warriors UNDER 214.5

The Golden State Warriors are making a lot of headlines here recently due to their offense that has put up 115 or more points in five straight games coming in.  Klay Thompson just set a record for most points in a quarter (37) against Sacramento last time out. As a result, the total of this game against the Boston Celtics has been inflated.

While there's no question the Warriors are a very good offensive team, the real reason why they are in first place in the West at 35-6 is because of their defense.  Indeed, the Warriors rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up and average of 96.9 points per 100 possessions.

Boston has traded away all of its best players in Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green and company.  It is now being forced to try to win games with its defense because it lacks scorers.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Boston's last three games overall as it lost 93-102 at the LA Clippers before winning 90-89 at the Blazers and 100-99 at the Nuggets. 

All three of those teams are among the best offensive teams in the league, but the Celitcs have hung right with them by shortening the game and playing solid defense.  Plus, the Celtics are expected to be without two key offensive players in Marcus Smart and Kelly Olynyk tonight. Olynyk is actually the team's third-leading leading scorer at 11.1 points per game.

Taking a look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated.  The Celtics & Warriors have combined for 210 or fewer points in each of their last 10 meetings.  They have combined for 196, 196, 180 and 184 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of just 189.0 points per game, which is roughly 26 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.5.

Golden State is 16-5 to the UNDER after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 12-3 to the UNDER in home games after a combined score of 225 or more points over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last four road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Warriors last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 40-15 in Warriors last 55 after allowing 100 points or more in their prvious game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +18.5

The Atlanta Hawks are on a ridiculous run right now where they have gone 15-0 straight up and 14-0-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  After covering 14 straight coming in, the Hawks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 18.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves tonight, and they haven't been more than 11-point favorites in any game this season up to this point.

At 7-35, the Minnesota Timberwolves could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now as well.  They have lost three straight while going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall to boot.  This is simply the perfect storm tonight folks as this number is too high.

Also, if Atlanta were to ever have a letdown, it would be tonight against the Timberwolves.  That's because they are coming off a huge win over one of the best teams in the West in the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday.  They won't be playing with the kind of focus and effort they played with against the Thunder against the Timberwolves tonight.

Minnesota has played Atlanta very tough in recent meetings, going 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight matchups.  In fact, the Timberwolves have not lost by more than 10 points to the Hawks in any of the last eight meetings, making for a perfect 8-0 system backing them pertaining to this 18.5-point spread.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Minnesota is 4-1-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Atlanta.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Grizzlies UNDER 190

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Philadelphia 76ers and Memphis Grizzlies.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between these teams tonight.

Philadelphia is the worst offensive team in the league.  It is scoring just 90.0 points per game on 40.9% shooting.  It hasn't scored more than 96 points in any of its last 20 games, and it has been held below 90 nine times during this stretch.  It has been playing good defense, though, allowing 100 or fewer points in eight of its last 11 games.  The UNDER is 10-1 in 76ers' last 11 games overall.

Memphis isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut, either.  However, it gets after it defensively with the best of them.  It has allowed 98 or fewer points in six of its last nine games overall.  It ranks 11th in defensive efficiency, while Philadelphia ranks a respectable 14th.  Memphis will set the tempo at home tonight, and it ranks 27th in pace at 94.1 possessions per game.

The UNDER is 14-5 in 76ers last 19 road games.  Philadelphia is 9-1 to the UNDER in road games off two or more consecutive home losses over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 11-1 to the UNDER in home games after a game where it allowed a shooting percentage of 35% or less since 1996.  The UNDER is 6-0 in 76ers last six games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.  The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games following a loss.  These last four trends combine for a 33-2 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on New York Knicks +9.5

Despite recently getting back star Carmelo Anthony from injury, the New York Knicks continue to get no respect from oddsmakers tonight as 9.5-point underdogs to the Charlotte Hornets.  They are showing excellent value here as the chances of them losing by double-digits are slim to nine.

The Knicks have not quit, which has been evident in their last three games.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three.  They beat New Orleans 99-92 as 4-point home underdogs, Philadelphia 98-91 as 3-point road favorites, and Orlando 113-106 as 3-point home dogs.  They are playing with a lot of confidence right now.

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly overvalued.  They had a stretch where they won eight of their last nine games prior to an ugly 90-129 loss at Cleveland last night.  That loss will really have these Hornets' players questioning how good they actually are, and I look for them to come back deflated from it.  They won't have the kind of focus and effort needed to win this game by double-digits.

"I think it's just effort, energy, attention to details," Anthony said. "I think the guys that have been helping us and contributing to these last couple of games, (those) guys are hungry. They're showing it, they're playing like it. They're having a lot of fun. We're having a lot of fun out there now. I think that comes with putting forth the effort and the energy and being able to see results from there."

'The guys' are several players that the Knicks have been giving playing time recently, and they are contributing in a big way.  Leading the way has been Langston Galloway, an undrafted rookie out of Saint Joseph's, who is averaging 15.7 points on 51.4 percent shooting during the three-game winning streak.  Like Galloway, Lance Thomas and Louis Amundson are on 10-day contracts.  Thomas scored 16 points off the bench against the Magic, while Amundson had six rebounds and two blocks as a starter.

"We've mixed in some personalities and some guys into this group, who have a core toughness about them that I think is effecting everybody," coach Derek Fisher said.

New York is 13-2 ATS versus good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 29-9 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs. opponent of 20 points or more.  Yes, the Knicks were blown out by the Hornets the last time they played, but they were without Anthony.  Charlotte is 1-8 ATS in home games off a road loss this season.  The road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Roll with the Knicks Saturday.

15* Bulls/Mavericks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Chicago +7

The Chicago Bulls are playing with a chip on their shoulder right now.  They recently lost six games in an eight-game stretch, and Derrick Rose spoke out about how frustrating it was that the team wasn't competing. 

After that stretch, I backed them last night in a dominant 104-81 home win over the reigning champion San Antonio Spurs as 6-point underdogs.  I look for them to carry that chip on their shoulder into Dallas tonight despite having to play the second of a back-to-back.

The Mavericks are just 4-3 SU & 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their four wins have come against the Timberwolvers, Nuggets, Kings and Grizzlies during this stretch.  They have also lost at home to Detroit (by 13), at the Clippers (by 20) and at the Nuggets (by 7).

Chicago has played its best basketball on the road this season, going 15-6 straight up in 21 road games.  Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series of late, either.  The road team has actually won three straight meetings between the Bulls and Mavericks.  The Bulls will be out for revenge from their 129-132 (double-OT) home loss to the Mavericks in their first meeting of 2014-15 back on December 2nd.

Chicago is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Dallas.  Plays against favorites (DALLAS) - after three or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (at least 102 PPG) after 42+ games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 33-13 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take the Bulls Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Cavaliers UNDER 195

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Charlotte Hornets and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight as neither team reaches the 100-point barrier.

Charlotte leads the NBA with 95.3 points allowed per game.  That average has dropped dramatically here of late as the Hornets have held each of their last 10 opponents to 98 points or fewer, and an average of 87.2 points per game.  In their last three games, they held Indiana to 71 (in OT), Minnesota to 80, and Miami to 76.

While Cleveland's offense has picked up since the return of Lebron James, I believe the betting public is quick to back the overs in their games because of it, providing some line value.  The Cavs have also been solid defensively here of late.  They allowed 94 points and 37.5% shooting to Chicago, and 92 points on 41.7% shooting to Utah.

What stood out to me was just how low-scoring this series has been.  The Hornets and Cavs have combined for 193 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 178, 185, 190 (OT), 193, 166 and 174 points in those six meetings for an average of 181.0 points per game, which is 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.  That includes two meetings this season that have seen 178 and 185 combined points.

Charlotte is 16-3 to the UNDER in its last 19 road games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  Cleveland is 26-16 to the UNDER in all games this season.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Hornets last four games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six home games.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Cavaliers last 16 overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

This is a matchup of the NBA's most dangerous team (Oklahoma City) up against the NBA's hottest team (Atlanta) tonight.  I'm going to side with the dangerous team in the Thunder as 4.5-point road underdogs in this one.

The reason the Thunder are dangerous is because they are finally healthy and chasing down a playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They are currently in 9th place in the West, which makes them dangerous because they aren't going to take nights off the rest of the way.  They'll certainly be amped up for this game tonight.

The Hawks have won 14 straight games while going an unfathomable 13-0-1 ATS in those 14 games.  They have been the most underrated team in the league through the first half of the season.  However, those odds are finally starting to catch up to them, and they should not be favored against arguably the best team in the West when healthy in the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has shown what it is capable of when healthy here of late.  It has gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  It started with a 127-115 home win over Golden State, which owns the best record in the league.  Following that win was three straight road victories at Orlando (127-99), Miami (94-86) and Washington (105-103, OT).

The Thunder have had the Hawks' number, winning three straight in this series, and seven of the last nine meetings overall.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Atlanta as well.  Look for them to go into Atlanta and put an end to the Hawks' winning streak tonight, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Atlanta is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 home games off a home win.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Oklahoma City is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games against Eastern Conference opponents.  It has simply been crushing the East, and Atlanta wouldn't fare nearly as well if it was in the West.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

15* Spurs/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +6

The Chicago Bulls are clearly struggling right now without Joakim Noah, but they were struggling before he got injured, too.  While I do believe they miss Noah quite a bit, the fact of the matter is that the Bulls are simply showing too good of value to pass up tonight.

This line opened at Spurs -3.5 and the betting public has jumped all over San Antonio, driving this line up to 6.  They love the fact that the Spurs have won and covered four straight games coming into this one, and hate that the Bulls have lost four of five while going 1-4 ATS in the process.  This is an overreaction at its finest.

The Spurs' four-game winning streak has come against some weak competition.  They beat the Hornets and the Nuggets on the road, while topping the Blazers and Jazz at home during this stretch.  The Bulls have played much stiffer competition as three of their last four losses have come to Eastern Conference contenders Washington, Atlanta and Cleveland.

Derrick Rose spoke out after the team's loss to Cleveland on Monday, which also means that they have two days' rest coming into this game Thursday.  "It's just that no matter who is on the floor or who is out or who is coming back we just have to compete," Rose said. "My biggest thing is competing and making sure we let the opponent know we've come to play. We're midway through the season; it's no excuses." 

I look for an inspired effort from Rose and the Bulls tonight.  The Spurs haven't exactly been road warriors like they have been in year's past.  They are just 12-10 away from home this season, and very beatable outside of San Antonio.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Grizzlies UNDER 200

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Toronto Raptors and Memphis Grizzlies in this non-conference showdown between two of the top teams in their respective conferences.  The oddsmakers have simply inflated this total, and we'll take advantage.

Toronto is playing much better defense here of late, but its offense is lacking.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the Raptors' last four games overall.  They have been held to 93 or fewer points in three of those four games, and given up 95 or fewer in three of the four.  They have combined with each of their last four opponents for 199 or less points.

Memphis comes into this game playing great defense as well.  It has held three of its last four opponents to 98 or fewer points.  Three of its last four games have seen 200 or fewer combined points as well.  That includes home games against high-scoring Western Conference teams in Portland (102-98) and Dallas (95-103).

What really stood out to me when handicapping this game was the recent head-to-head history between these teams.  The Raptors and Grizzlies have combined for 190 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They have averaged 183.6 combined points in those five meetings, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.  What's more is that the highest total set in any of those five games was 192.5, so there is clearly some value here with this UNDER.

Toronto is 12-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 12-2 in Raptors last 14 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The UNDER is 23-6 in the last 29 meetings in this series.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Heat Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City -6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are rolling now that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are back healthy.  At 20-20 and in 9th place in the Western Conference, 3.5 games back of Phoenix for 8th place, look for the Thunder to keep their foot on the gas tonight against the Miami Heat.

The Thunder have won each of their last two games via blowout.  They beat Golden State 127-115 at home, and the Warriors currently have the best record in the league.  They followed that up with a 127-99 win at Orlando against a Magic team that has been playing well of late.  Now, their travel is minimal two days later as they make the short trip to Miami.

The Heat have ample rest coming into this one following their five-game road trip out West, but that first game back home following a long road trip is almost always tough for NBA teams.  Also, the fact of the matter is that the Heat just do not have the talent this year to match up with the Thunder, and they were blown out by Golden State (by 15) and Portland (by 16) on their road trip, which are two teams nearly equal to the Thunder talent-wise.

The Thunder have been feasting against the weak Eastern Conference, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five against them.  That includes the win over Orlando (by 28), but also Charlotte (by 23), Cleveland (by 9), Washington (by 7) and Milwaukee (by 13).  The Thunder are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

Miami is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  The Heat are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Miami is 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 following an ATS win.  The Heat are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Miami is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, coming back to lose by an average of 11.5 points per game in this spot.  The Heat are 1-11 ATS in home games after playing four consecutive road games over the last three seasons.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Bucks UNDER 199

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight based on the way that both of these teams have been playing coming in.  I don't see either reaching 100 points in this one.

Milwaukee is a perfect 11-0 to the UNDER in its last 11 games overall.  All 11 of those games saw 198 or fewer combined points as well.  The Bucks and their opponents are combining to average 182.3 points per game in their last 11 games, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 199.

Toronto is 3-0 to the UNDER in its last three games overall where it has scored 100 or fewer points in all three.  It combined with Philadelphia for 184, with Atlanta for 199, and with New Orleans for 188.  Neither of these teams are lighting it up offensively as the Bucks have scored 98 or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games as well.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 27-11-1 in Bucks last 39 games following a win.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Bucks last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Bulls/Cavaliers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -3

I have successfully backed the Cleveland Cavaliers in each of their last two games.  They have come through with two of their better performances of the season by sweeping the Lakers (107-100) and the Clippers (126-121) at the Staples Center to conclude their five-game road trip out West.

After missing eight games due to injury where the Cavaliers went 1-7, Lebron James has returned for each of the last three games, and it's no surprise that they have turned it around.  They are 20-12 in games that James plays this season, compared to 1-8 without him.

Now, the Cavaliers return home tonight and are showing excellent value as only 3-point favorites over the Chicago Bulls.  They have had two days off in between games so they'll be well-rested and ready to go.  These Cleveland fans will be giving them a warm welcome with the excitement of James being back in the lineup for his first home game since December 28th.

Chicago comes into this game playing its worst basketball of the season.  It is 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It has ugly home losses to Utah (77-97), Orlando (114-121), Washington (99-105) and Atlanta (99-107), as well as a blowout road loss to Washington (86-102) during this stretch.  Its only two wins have come against Milwaukee and Boston.

While Derrick Rose and his injury status gets most of the attention for the Bulls, I would argue that Joakim Noah is Chicago's most important player.  He does all the dirty work and makes all of the hussle plays for the Bulls.  Without him, they are a much worse defensive team, and that has really shown here of late.

Noah (ankle) left the Washington game at halftime three games ago, and the Bulls would up allowing 61 points in the second half.  They also allowed 103 points to Boston and 107 to Atlanta in their two games without Noah since.  They are giving up an average of 108.3 points per game in their last four.  Noah remains out with that same ankle injury.

The Bulls are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Chicago is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Bet the Cavaliers Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +13.5

The Denver Nuggets have really turned their season around here of late by winning five of their last seven games overall.  They have beaten Memphis (114-85) and Dallas (114-107) at home, while blowing out Minnesota (110-101) and Sacramento (118-108) on the road during this stretch.

However, the Nuggets will be coming into this game highly motivated for a victory following back-to-back losses to the Mavericks and Timberwolves.  That ugly loss to Minnesota last time out has them undervalued coming into this game, but it was a clear letdown spot for them after playing Dallas and with Golden State on deck.  They were looking ahead to this game against the Warriors.

Due to having the best record in the NBA, the Warriors are getting a ton of respect from the oddsmakers at this point in the season. It's to the point where they are overvalued tonight after covering the spread in seven of their last nine games overall with one push. This is also a tired team right now as the Warriors will be playing their 5th game in 7 days.

The two things that really stood out to me about this game is how tough the Nuggets have played the Warriors recently, and how much success the road team has had.  Indeed, the road team has won four straight meetings.  Also, each of the last six meetings have been decided by 8 or fewer points.

Plays against home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 30-10 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Denver is 36-19 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 103 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +12

The Denver Nuggets (18-21) have no business being double-digits favorites against almost any team in the league, including the Minnesota Timberwolves (6-32).  I'll gladly take the value here and back the 12-point road underdog Timberwolves tonight.

Minnesota has been playing much more competitive basketball here of late.  It has gone 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games overall, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers tonight.  It has not lost any of its last 11 games by more than 15 points, and eight of those have been decided by 12 or fewer.

Denver comes into this game overvalued due to having won five of its last six games overall.  Off an 89-97 loss to Dallas last night, and with a game at Golden State on deck, I look at this as a huge letdown spot for the Nuggets as well.

Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back, but the Timberwolves are clearly the fresher team.  They had two days off prior to their 99-110 loss to the Suns as 14-point dogs last night.  Plus, this will be just their 3rd game in the past 7 days.  Denver will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days in comparison.

This has been a very closely-contested series between the Nuggets and Timberwolves in recent years.  In fact, five of the last six meetings have been decided by 9 points or fewer, including three by exactly 4 points.  The road team is 22-6-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  The Timberwolves are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 trips to Denver.

Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Nuggets are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Denver is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS in home games versus poor teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 24-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* Cavaliers/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +8

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 1-8 without Lebron James while averaging 91.0 points per game, but with James they are 19-12 and averaging 102.6 points per game.  James just recently returned to the lineup for their last two games.

He hasn't missed a beat by totaling 69 pionts, 12 rebounds and 10 assists while shooting 7-for-18 from 3-point range since returning.  He has averaged 29.2 points, 8.5 boards and 7.8 assists in his last six road games against the Clippers.

I know this is the second of a back-to-back for the Cavaliers, which is usually a tough spot, but the re-energized James will help them get over that.  Plus, they don't have to travel at all as they played the Lakers in the Staples Center last night, and now they play the Clippers in the Staples Center.  No travel minimizes the effect of a back-to-back situation.

The Cavs are simply undervalued due to going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, while the Clippers are overvalued due to going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, including a win at Portland last time out.  There is certainly some line value here as the oddsmakers have tacked on a few too many points to the Clippers' side.  Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Los Angeles.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4

Getting the San Antonio Spurs as only 4-point home favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers is an absolute gift from oddsmakers tonight.  I'll take advantage and back them at a great price as you'll rarely find the Spurs as this small of home favorites.

The Spurs are starting to gain some traction as they have won five of their last seven games overall.  Now, they get a healthy Kawhi Leonard returning to the lineup after missing the past 15 games with a torn ligament in his hand.  He is arguably the Spurs' best player, and it's no wonder they have kind of struggled this year without him.

San Antonio is in a massive revenge spot here.  The Spurs have lost each of their first two meetings of the season with the Blazers, including a 119-129 (3 OT) home loss back on December 19th in their last meeting.  Neither Tony Parker nor Leonard played in that game and they still took the Blazers to three overtimes.  Leonard and Parker are now both healthy this time around.  Also, both Parker and Tim Duncan missed the Spurs' 95-108 road loss to the Blazers in their first meeting.

The Spurs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games playing on one days rest.  San Antonio is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five visits to San Antonio.  Roll with the Spurs Friday.

20* Warriors/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +2.5

Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Oklahoma City Thunder as home underdogs.  I'll gladly take advantage tonight as the Thunder take on the Golden State Warriors, who are simply overvalued due to having the best record in the NBA right now.

Yes, this is a second of a back-to-back situation for the Thunder after an ugly loss to the Houston Rockets last night.  However, the Thunder came into that game on five days' rest and were probably a little rusty.  After having five days off prior to that game, fatigue will not be a factor tonight.

That's especially the case considering this is a huge revenge situation for the Thunder.  They have lost each of their first three meetings of the season with the Warriors, so they will be looking to avoid the four-game sweep. 

Keep in mind that they did not have Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook for the first meeting in an 86-91 home loss.  Durant scored 30 points in the first half of the second meeting before going out with an ankle injury in a 114-109 home victory for the Clippers.  The Thunder are finally back to full strength now with Durant and Westbrook.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-2 straight up in the last 11 meetings.  Oklahoma City is 63-34 ATS in its last 97 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Thunder are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Golden State is 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 1-5 ATS in its last six visits to OKC.  Take the Thunder Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Toronto Raptors +1

Due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference at 31-8, and entering this game on a 10-game winning streak, the Atlanta Hawks are overvalued tonight as road favorites against the Toronto Raptors.  They have also covered nine straight, which has the betting public all over them, and now it's time to fade.

The Toronto Raptors have the third-best record in the East with a 26-12 mark.  They just had second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg) return last time out in a 100-84 home win over the 76ers.  DeRozan has missed 21 games this year, and they've still managed to keep it together, but they've clearly been better with him than without him.

The Raptors come into this game undervalued due to having lost five of their last seven games overall while going 1-6 ATS in the process.  The loss of DeRozan was finally catching up to them during this stretch, but now that he's back, look for the Raptors to get back to playing the same dominant basketball they were before it.

Toronto has clearly had Atlanta's number.  The Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Hawks.  They won 96-86 as 7.5-point home favorite in their final meeting of 2013-14.  They won 109-102 as 4.5-point home favorites in their first meeting of 2014-15.  They also won 126-115 as 3.5-point road favorites in their most recent meeting with the Hawks this season.

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors.  Look for Toronto to come out with an inspired effort tonight to try and turn around its fortunes now that DeRozan is back and healthy.  Take the Raptors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +6.5

The Orlando Magic enter this game playing their best basketball of the season.  I have successfully backed them in back-to-back upsets, and I'm going to back them again tonight showing excellent value as 6.5-point home dogs to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Magic put an end to a six-game losing streak with a 121-114 road win at Chicago as 11.5-point underdogs, then followed that up with a 120-113 home win as 9-point dogs to the Houston Rockets.

The key to the Magic's success is that they have used their young guards in Victor Oladipo and Elfred Payton to push the tempo as this youthful team is clearly at their best when they get out in the open floor.  They have scored 120.5 points per game in their last two wins.

"I think it took time but we've figured out how to play," guard Victor Oladipo said. "Now that we've figured it out, we can't change it."  Oladipo scored a season-high 33 versus Chicago and 32 against the Rockets.  Nikola Vucevic, one of the most underrated centers in the league, has been hot with averages of 30.7 points, 13.0 rebounds and 64.0 percent shooting over the past three games.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a much better home team than they are a road team.  They are 12-7 on the road this season scoring 97.8 points and allowing 97.6 points per game.  Now, Mike Conley is battling injuries to both of his ankles, and had to leave the team's win over the Celtics last time out with an ankle injury. 

After seeing him in a walking boot after the game, there's a good chance he doesn't play tonight even thought he's listed as questionable.  Conley is the Grizzlies' floor general and their most important player.  If he doesn't play, it's going to be an added bonus, but even if he does he'll be far from 100% as both ankles are bothering him right now.

The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS in their last six Friday games.  Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Grizzlies are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Orlando is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  It has proven time and time again that it can play with the league's best teams.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Indiana Pacers +1.5

Yes, the Detroit Pistons have been playing some of the best basketball in the league here of late, and I've backed them quite a bit.  However, once that news becomes public, then teams like the Pistons tend to be way overvalued, which I believe to be the case tonight and in the near future.

The Pistons have won nine of their last 11 games overall.  They had won seven straight and covered seven in a row before the odds started to catch up to them.  They are now just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall as they have been overvalued.  They lost 94-105 at home to the Pelicans last time out as 4-point favorites.  Just like they shouldn't have been favored over the Pelicans, they should not be favored against the Pacers tonight.

Indiana has managed to hold it together this season despite all of the injuries it was dealt with a 15-25 record up to this point.  Now, most of their team is healthy, and the Pacers are going to be a tough out going forward.  They come into this game undervalued off back-to-back upset losses to Philadelphia and Minnesota.

The Pacers will be hungry for a win after this recent stretch, where they've gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They also come into this game well-rested and ready to go.  They have had two days off since that loss to the Timberwolves, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Detroit, on the other hand, will be playing its 7th game in 11 days.

The Pistons are 3-11 ATS off a home loss this season.  Detroit is 4-15 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss.  Detroit is 17-36 ATS in its last 53 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Indiana is 8-2 straight up in its last 10 meetings with Detroit.  The Pistons are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 visits to Indiana.  Roll with the Pacers Friday.

20* Thunder/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder (18-19) are on a mission to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.  They know that they have to give 100% effort from here on out to get there, which is going to make them an enticing bet the rest of the way.  You certainly won't be questioning their effort tonight.

It's rare that you see an NBA team get five days off in between games.  Well, that's the case for the Thunder tonight, who last played on January 9th in a 99-94 win over the Jazz.  That means they have had five full days to prepare for the Houston Rockets and to rest up.  I suspect you will see their best effort of the season tonight as a result.

Meanwhile, the situation could not be much worse for the Houston Rockets.  This is a tired team right now as the Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 6th game in 9 days.  The Rockets simply won't be able to match the intensity that the Thunder play with tonight because they will be too tired to do so.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996. 

The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  They have also won 4 of the last 6.  They did lose 65-69 to the Rockets at home in their first and only meeting of 2014-15, but they were playing without Westbrook and Durant.  They are now healthy and back to being one of the best teams in the West.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* Wizards/Bulls ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on UNDER 194.5

The Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards square off tonight in their 3rd meeting of the 2014-15 season.  They played on December 23rd and January 9th, so this will actually be their 3rd meeting in three weeks.  They are obviously very familiar with one another, and that familiarity will lead to a defensive battle tonight on ESPN.

After all, it has been mostly defensive battles when these teams have gotten together here of late.  Indeed, each of the last four meetings between the Bulls and Wizards have seen 190 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 188, 190, 144, and 187 points in their last four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 177.3 points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.  Chicago ranks 17th in pace at 96.1 possessions per game, while Washington ranks 19th at 95.6 possessions per contest.  The key to their success has been defense as both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency.  Washington ranks 6th giving up 100.5 points per 100 possessions, while Chicago ranks 10th at 101.7.

The Bulls are coming off their worst defensive performance of the season in a 114-121 loss to Orlando last time out.  You can bet that Tom Thibodeau has been in their ears about defense, because he cannot stand to give up that many points as he's a defensive-minded guy.  Look for the Bulls to come out with a huge effort defensively tonight, especially after losing to the Wizards 86-102 less than a week ago.

The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Wizards last 29 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Wizards last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Bulls last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 24-9 in the last 33 meetings.  The Bulls and Wizards have combined for less than 195 points in 17 of their last 20 meetings, making for a 17-3 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic come into this game way undervalued.  They have lost six of their last seven games overall to drop to 14-27 on the season.  Well, they are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 121-114 win at Chicago, and they will be playing with a ton of confidence tonight because of it.

Houston comes into this game way overvalued due to having gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  Well, those four wins came against Cleveland (without Lebron), New York, Utah and Brooklyn (without Deron Williams).  With a game against Oklahoma City on deck tomorrow, the Rockets could easily be overlooking the Magic tonight.

Victor Oladipo had a season-high 33 points and Nikola Vucevic added 33 with 11 rebounds against the Bulls as Orlando recorded its highest scoring total of the season. "When we're aggressive on defense and we're pushing the pace on offense, that gives us more opportunities to score more points," reserve Willie Green told the team's official website. "Vooch and Vic carried us offensively and everybody else just played their role. For us, it's just about us needing to score more points."

The Magic are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Orlando is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This team has shown that it can play with some of the best teams in the league this season.  The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Magic.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavericks/Kings UNDER 213.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings tonight.  I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this game, which has been a common theme when these teams have gotten together recently.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  The Mavericks and Kings have combined for 204, 184, 203 and 210 points in their last four meetings, respectively, and they have not combined for more than 213.5 in any of their last five meetings.  They have averaged 200.3 points per game in their last four meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total.

The Mavericks have become a much better defensive team since trading for Rajon Rondo.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in four of their last six games overall.  However, they are certainly a worse offensive team with Rondo.  They have failed to top 100 points in each of their last three games.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Kings last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Mavericks last eight games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Kings last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Jazz UNDER 203

The betting public looks at the Golden State Warriors and is quick to back the overs in their games because of their electrifying duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.  What they fail to realize is that the Warriors have the best record (29-5) in the NBA because of their defense.

Indeed, Golden State ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 96.2 points per 100 possessions.  Teams are only shooting 41.9% against the Warriors.  Their defense is only going to get better now that Andrew Bogut is back healthy.

The Utah Jazz have been playing tremendous defense here of late.  They have allowed 98 or fewer points in 10 of their last 13 games overall, and 105 or fewer in each of their last 13.  They are allowing just 92.8 points per game in their last 13 contests.  A big reason is the insertion of Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup.  He is a force down low who provides no offense, but a ton of blocks and boards on D.

Nobody is going to mistake the Jazz for a great offensive team.  In fact, they have been pretty terrible on that end of the floor here of late.  They have scored 101 or fewer points in 12 straight games.  The Jazz are only averaging 94.1 pints per game in their last 12 games.  As a result, the UNDER is 10-1 in Utah's last 11 games overall.

This has been a very low-scoring series between the Jazz and Warriors.  They have combined for 190 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings as the UNDER has gone 5-1 during this stretch.  The UNDER is also 8-2 in the last 10 meetings as they have combined for 202 or fewer points in eight of those 10.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more are 28-7 (80%) since 1997.  Utah is 12-2 to the UNDER vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or worse over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 20-7-1 in the last 28 meetings, including 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +11

The Orlando Magic are showing excellent value as double-digit road underdogs to the Chicago Bulls tonight.  I'll take advantage and grab as many points as I can get in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

At 13-27 on the season, the Magic get no respect from the betting public.  Well, they have been much better than their record would indicate, as evidenced by their profitable 22-18 ATS mark on the season.  They simply have lost the majority of their close games, which has made their record worse than it should be right now.

The Magic come in undervalued due to their current six-game losing streak.  Seven of their last nine losses have come by 11 points or fewer.  They are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to put an end to this skid and to get back in the win column.

The Chicago Bulls have been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this year.  They have gone just 17-21 ATS on the season.  They have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Each of their last six wins have come by 9 points or less.  They have also been blown out by Brooklyn (82-96) at home, Utah (77-97) at home and Washington (86-102) on the road during their 2-7 ATS stretch.

Chicago is also dealing with some injury issues right now.  Derrick Rose is questionable to play tonight with a hip contusion and a sore left knee.  He missed their last game in a 95-87 home win over Milwaukee on Saturday where Pau Gasol scored a career high 46 points.  He's not going to do that again.  Mike Dunleavy is also doubtful to play tonight with an ankle injury.

The Magic have done their best work on the road where they are 16-8 ATS this season.  They have also played the Bulls very tough in Chicago in recent meetings.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to the United Center.  They have only lost once by more than 9 points to the Bulls in their last 10 trips to Chicago.  That's a 9-1 ATS system backing the Magic pertaining to this 11-point spread.

The underdog is 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest.  Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Magic Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies (25-11) come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost two straight and three of their last four coming in with all three losses coming on the road.  Now, they return home where they'll handle the Phoenix Suns to get back on track.

Memphis is 14-4 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by an average of 7.3 points per game.  Phoenix is a solid 13-10 on the road this season, but most of its road wins have come against weak teams with losing records.  In fact, only two of its road wins have come against teams that currently have winning records.

This has been a one-sided series in recent meetings to say the least.  Indeed, Memphis is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Phoenix.  All five of those wins have come by 5 points or more, and covering this small 4.5-point spread won't be a problem tonight either.

The Grizzlies are 45-21-1 ATS in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  It's also worth noting that Memphis just got back Zach Randolph from a nine-game absence.  They are going to be a much stronger team going forward with a healthy Randolph back in the lineup.  Take the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 194

The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls are coming off a pair of defensive battles last night.  The Bulls lost 86-102 at Washington, while the Bucks beat the Timberwolves 98-84 at home.  Both games went UNDER the total, and the oddsmakers have set the number too high again tonight at 194 points for this contest.

Milwaukee is the single-most improved team in the NBA this season.  It has posted a 20-18 record up to this point and is comfortably in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  The reason for the Bucks' resurgence is their defense, which has been some of the best the NBA has to offer.

The Bucks are now a perfect 9-0 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall.  They have held eight of their last nine opponents to 94 or fewer points, and an average of just 86.7 points per game.  If that's not getting it done on the defensive end, then I don't know what is.

Both Chicago and Milwaukee rank among the Top 10 in the league in defensive efficiency.  Milwaukee ranks 4th, giving up just 99.8 points per 100 possessions.  Chicago is a solid 9th in allowing 101.2 points per 100 possessions.

When these teams get together, it's usually a low-scoring affair.  Indeed, the Bulls and Bucks have combined for 192 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 181, 192, 153, 181, 152 and 192 points in their last six meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 175.2 points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.

Chicago is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of its last eight games over the last three seasons.  It is combining with its opponents for an average of 173.1 points per game in these spots, winning 88.7 to 84.4 on average.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pelicans UNDER 196.5

There is a lot to like about this UNDER tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans.  First and foremost, when you look at the recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated.

Indeed, 11 of the last 12 meetings between the Pelicans and Grizzlies have seen 194 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 174, 178, 187, 202, 183, 173, 181, 174, 185, 194, 163 and 180 points in their last 12 meetings.  That's an average of 181.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.5.

Another reason to love this UNDER is that neither team is in a hurry offensively.  The Grizzlies rank 27th in the league in pace at 94.0 possessions per game.  The Pelicans rank 22nd in pace at 95.1 possessions per contest.  So, fewer possessions equals fewer points as this one will be played at a snail's pace.

New Orleans is 90-56 to the UNDER in its last 146 vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than 70%.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Bulls/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 195

The Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards square off on ESPN Friday night in what I anticipate to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.  That has been the case when these teams have gotten together recently, and it will be the case again tonight.

The last three meetings between these teams have seen 190, 144, and 187 combined points for an average of 173.7 combined points per game.  Not counting overtime, 18 of the last 19 meetings between these teams have seen 195 or less combined points.  The only exception was a 197-point effort.  That's a 17-1-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 195.

Neither of these teams are in a hurry on offense as they both rank in the bottom half of the league in pace.  Chicago ranks 16th at 96.2 possessions per game, while Washington ranks 19th at 95.5 possessions per contest.  Both teams rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency as well.  Washington ranks 6th at 100.4 points per 100 possessions allowed, while Chicago is 9th at 101.2.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Bulls last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Wizards last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Wizards last 14 games when playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Washington.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Pistons +3

The Detroit Pistons should not be an underdog at home to the Atlanta Hawks with the way they are playing right now.  This has been a completely different team since letting go of Josh Smith.  In fact, nobody in the NBA is playing better than the Pistons right now.

The Pistons have averaged 107.9 points and 48.0 percent shooting while allowing 92.9 and 42.8 per contest during a seven-game win streak, which began after they waived veteran forward and ex-Hawk Josh Smith. They scored 94.4 points and shot 41.3 percent per game while giving up 101.1 and 45.8 during a 5-23 start.

"Guys have worked harder, they've been more attentive and a lot more together," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "We don't have guys that are getting concerned about who's in the game or their playing time or their shots or anything else. They just want to win games."

While the first five wins of this streak came against suspect competition, all five came by double-digits.  Also, the Pistons have validated their play by going on the road and knocking off back-to-back Western Conference powers.  The beat San Antonio 105-104 as 8-point dogs, and then turned around the next night and beat Dallas 108-95 as 9-point dogs.

The Atlanta Hawks are playing tremendous basketball as well having won 20 of their last 22.  However, this is a huge letdown spot for them.  They are coming off three straight wins over Western Conference powers in Portland, the LA Clippers, and Memphis.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Pistons tonight.

Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win.  These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing Detroit.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

20* NBA on TNT TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Knicks UNDER 194

I'm backing the UNDER in this game between the Houston Rockets and New York Knicks tonight on TNT.  With the state the Knicks are in right now, they'll be held to a low number against a very good Houston defense, which will aid the UNDER.

The Knicks are playing without Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, and they just traded away their biggest weapon off the bench in J.R. Smith.  So, they are essentially playing without their three best scorers now, and the results have been staggering here of late.

Indeed, the Knicks have been held to 91 or fewer points in six straight games.  They have averaged just 82.3 points per game in their last six contests.  New York ranks 28th in the league in pace at 92.6 possessions per game, and 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.5 points per 100 possessions.

Houston has been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year.  Indeed, it ranks 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 98.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets have only gotten stronger defensively with the addition of Josh Smith from the Pistons.

The Rockets and Knicks have already met once this season, and the result was a low-scoring defensive battle.  The Rockets beat the Knicks 91-86 at home for 177 combined points.  That total set was at 191, and both Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith played in that game.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (HOUSTON) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (-7 PPG differential or worse) are 71-37 (65.7%) since 1996.

Houston is 8-1 to the UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in three straight games this season.  New York is 10-2 to the UNDER as a home underdog this season.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Rockets last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Knicks last 22 home games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 games overall.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Pacers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Indiana +11

The Golden State Warriors are way overvalued as double-digit favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Toronto and Oklahoma City, which sets them up for a huge letdown spot here.  They also could be caught looking ahead to Cleveland Friday.

Quietly, the Indiana Pacers have been playing some great basketball to get back into the playoff hunt.  They have gone a sensational 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are 7-5 straight up during this stretch with all five of their losses coming by 10 points or less, and four of those coming by 3 points or fewer.  You have to go all the way back to December 12th at Toronto (by 12) to find the last time they lost a game by more than 10 points.

Indiana has had Golden State's number in recent meetings.  The Pacers are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Warriors.  Their three losses during this stretch came by 2, 11 and 2 points.  So, they have not lost by more than 11 points in any of their last eight meetings with the Warriors.

The Pacers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games versus good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.    Indiana is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Pacers are 8-0 ATS in road games after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.  Indiana is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Pacers are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Kings UNDER 212

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento Kings.  I expect a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one that does not come close to touching 212 combined points.

One look at the recent history between these teams tells the story.  The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Thunder and Kings have combined for 201 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.

They have combined for 196, 194, 199, 175, 201, 192, 199 and 200 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 194.5 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 212. 

The UNDER is 7-0 in Thunder's last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Sacramento.  OKC is 12-2 to the UNDER as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA on ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves come into this game way overvalued due to having lost 12 straight games.  The betting public sees that and wants nothing to do with them, creating some nice line value for us to take advantage.

The Timberwolves have not quit as they've gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games, which have all been by 13 points or less as they have been competitive in all six of them.  They will certainly show up to play tonight considering this game will be nationally televised on ESPN.

This is a very tough spot for the Phoenix Suns.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They just went into Milwaukee and won 102-96 last night, and I don't expect them to have much left in the tank for the Timberwolves tonight.

Minnesota has played Phoenix very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, the Timberwolves are 4-3 straight up in their last seven meetings with the Suns.  Also, their three losses during this stretch have come by 7, 1 and 1 points.  So, the Timberwolves have not lost to the Suns by more than 7 points in any of the last seven meetings.

The Suns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7

The 76ers just recently returned home from a brutal seven-game road trip.  They won their first two games at Orlando and at Miami, but then proceeded to lose five straight all on the West Coast to Portland, Utah, Golden State, Phoenix and the LA Clippers.

After losing those five straight, the 76ers were undervalued in their first game back home as 4.5-point dogs to the Cavaliers.  Well, they won that game outright 95-92, and I believe they have an excellent chance to beat the Milwaukee Bucks outright tonight as well.

Milwaukee is in a very tough spot here.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.  It went into New York and won 95-82 on Sunday, but then lost 96-102 at home to Phoenix last night.  This team is running on fumes now and won't have much to give against the 76ers tonight.

Philadelphia is 11-2 ATS in a home game where the total is between 195 and 199.5 over the last three seasons.  The home team has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams.  The Bucks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 visits to Philadelphia.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Central Division foes.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +8

The Detroit Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game with San Antonio.  It just so happened that it occurred right in line with the release of Josh Smith, who just seems to be a cancer wherever he goes.  The Pistons have been playing much freer and looser since Smith's departure.

The Pistons are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games since losing their highest-paid player in Smith.  They have won those five games by an average of 18.2 points per game, so it's not like they are just sneaking by opponents.  They are scoring 14.0 more points and surrendering 10.9 fewer per game without Smith.

"I'm not going to say that teams are afraid to play us - there are several teams in the NBA who scare people more than we do," head coach Stan Van Gundy said. "But we're playing very well right now."

The Spurs (21-14) just aren't the team that won the NBA title last year.  They have been battling injuries all season.  NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard remains out with a hand injury and will miss his 11th consecutive game.  Tony Parker has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and is questionable to return tonight.

San Antonio has lost seven of its last 11 games overall to really be just a mediocre team.  All four of its wins during this stretch came by single-digits with a 7-point win over the Clippers, a 4-point win over the Rockets, a 2-point win over the Pelicans, and a 9-point win over the Wizards.

Detroit is 40-19 ATS in its last 59 road games off two straight wins by 10 or more points.  The Pistons are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game.  The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Detroit is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or greater.  The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and 6-2 ATS in its last eight visits to San Antonio.  Roll with the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  This was one of my sleeper teams in the Western Conference, and at 17-16, they sit just 1.5 games out of the No. 8 spot in the West.  If they were playing in the East, the Pelicans would challenge for a conference title.

New Orleans comes into this game with Washington playing some of its best basketball of the season.  It has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes home wins over fellow West playoff contenders San Antonio (97-90), Phoenix (110-106) and Houston (111-83).

Washington knows all about how tough the West is because it has lost three straight road games to Western Conference foes.  It lost 87-114 at Dallas, 102-109 at Oklahoma City, and 92-101 at San Antonio in its last three games overall.  Another loss here is likely, and I expect it to be by more than 3 points.

The Pelicans are going to be out for revenge here.  They will be looking to put an end to a six-game losing streak to Washington in this series.  That includes an 80-83 road loss as 4-point underdogs in their first meeting of 2014-15 back on November 29th.

New Orleans is 11-4 at home this season where it is outscoring teams by 7.0 points per game.  Washington is just 8-7 on the road where it is getting outscored by 3.4 points per game.  The Pelicans are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 home games revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Wizards are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with New Orleans Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Josh Smith effect is the real deal.  He waived and signed by Houston, and the Detroit Pistons proceed to go 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall.  He was simply a cancer on this team, and it's been amazing to watch what the Pistons have done without him.

Not only are they winning, they are dominating.  All four of their wins during this streak came by 10 points or more with three of those coming on the road.  They beat Indiana (119-109) at home, and Cleveland (103-80), Orlando (109-86) and New York (97-81) on the road.  The Pistons are winning by an average of 18.0 points.  They are averaging 12.6 points more than they did before the shake-up and are allowing 12.1 fewer.

Extending their win streak to five for the first time since Dec. 4-12, 2009, certainly seems possible against the Kings (14-19), who have allowed an average of 111.7 points over a nine-game stretch in which each opponent has reached the century mark.  The last time they didn't allow 100 was Dec. 13, when the Pistons won 95-90 in Sacramento for their 9th victory in the last 10 meetings.

Sacramento is 0-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Kings are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Sacramento is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  The Kings are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  These five trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Detroit.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves Money Line -105

The Minnesota Timberwolves are highly motivated to put an end to their 10-game losing streak tonight as they host the Utah Jazz.  They have been really close to ending this streak here of late, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall that includes a 4-point loss to Denver, a 6-point loss to Utah and a 3-point loss to Sacramento.

That makes this a revenge game for the Timberwolves, who lost 94-100 at Utah as 7-point underdogs on December 30th.  Playing the Jazz less than a week later, the Timberwolves are simply going to want this game more.  I look for them to put an end to their losing streak with a home victory Saturday night.

This is a very tough spot for Utah.  It fought back from a huge deficit against Atlanta last night, only to lose by a final of 92-98 as 4.5-point home underdogs.  Now, these tired Jazz are going to have a tough time matching the energy level of the young Timberwolves, especially considering they just beat them less than a week ago.

The Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Western Conference foes.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Minnesota.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

20* Raptors/Warriors Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -4.5

This is a matchup between the top team from the Eastern Conference in the Toronto Raptors (24-8) against the top team from the Western Conference in the Golden State Warriors (25-5).  I'll gladly side with the top team from the West at home as only 4.5-point favorites in this matchup.

Toronto would not be anywhere close to first place if it played in the stacked West.  What the Warriors have done up to this point is very impressive given that they have played the much tougher schedule.  To go 25-5 is no small feat in the West.

I was able to fade the Warriors with some success following their 16-game winning streak as they were overvalued.  However, after going just 2-2 straight up and 1-3 ATS in their last four games, the Warriors are back to being undervalued here tonight as only 4.5-point home favorites.

The Raptors, on the other hand, are overvalued after winning eight of their last 10 games overall coming in.  Well, they are a tired team right now because they are in the midst of a 6-game road trip.  This is Game No. 5 of the trip that has seen them lose at Chicago 120-129 and at Portland 97-102.

Golden State is 12-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.7 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings.  The Warriors are 9-0 in their last nine home meetings with the Raptors dating back to 2004 with all nine wins coming by 6 points or more.  Roll with the Warriors Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +4.5

At 23-8 on the season and in second place in the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks are obviously off to a very surprising start this year.  However, with that start comes expectations from oddsmakers that the Hawks simply cannot live up to.  They have no business laying 4.5 points on the road to a Western Conference opponent as the Hawks would just be a mediocre team if they were playing in the West.

The Utah Jazz (11-21) got off to a horrible start this season, but I really like the way they are playing coming into this one.  They have gone 5-2 straight up in their last seven games overall, and one of their losses was a 4-point loss at the LA Clippers as 12-point underdogs.

The five wins have been very impressive.  They went into Miami and won 105-87 as 3.5-point dogs, won at Orlando 101-94 as 4-point dogs, won at Memphis 97-91 as 8-point dogs, beat the 76ers 88-71 at home as 10-point favorites, and beat the Timberwolves 100-94 at home as 7-point favorites.  The Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.

The Jazz are going to be out for revenge on the Hawks considering they have lost seven straight in this series.  Their last two losses have come by a combined 5 points, too.  That includes a 97-100 road loss in their first meeting of 2014-15 as 7-point underdogs back on November 12th.

Atlanta is 8-27 ATS in its last 35 games when playing on two days' rest.  Utah is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games after four straight games where it outrebounded its opponent by 5 or more boards.  The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Bet the Jazz Friday.