20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4 

The San Antonio Spurs are a lot better than they get credit for.  And they are certainly better at home than on the road.  They come in playing well going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And I still think they’re undervalued as only 4-point home favorites over the Timberwolves tonight. 

One of my favorite trends with this Spurs team is that they are 13-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  They are also 10-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  They are winning by an average of 16.2 PPG in this 10-0 situation. 

Well, the Spurs just suffered one of their worst losses of the season 89-128 at Minnesota on November 28th.  So they’ll be highly motivated to avenge that defeat.  And they should be able to against a Timberwolves team that has been atrocious on the road, going 2-12 SU & 5-9 ATS while losing by 7.6 PPG.   

The Timberwolves will also be without starting PG Jeff Teague tonight.  Meanwhile, the Spurs are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season, which is a big reason why they are playing so well coming into this game.  Their strong play continues tonight in this revenge spot.  Bet the Spurs Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on New York Knicks -2.5 

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They have lost eight of their last nine coming in and have played a brutal road schedule with five of their last eight on the road.  Their last two home games were both on the second of a back-to-back, too, so their home schedule has been rough. 

But now the Knicks are undervalued and it’s time to ‘buy low’ on them here.  They are back home and had yesterday off to rest and regroup, and they should be able to handle a bad Atlanta Hawks team that is just 7-23 overall this season, including 2-14 on the road and losing by 12.4 PPG on average away from home. 

The Knicks have already beaten the Hawks twice this season.  They won 126-107 as 4-point home favorites in their first meeting, and 112-107 as 1.5-point road favorites in their second meeting.  So when you compare this 2.5-point spread to that -4 number they were laying against the Hawks in their first home meeting, there’s some clear value here with the Knicks. 

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS against Atlantic division opponents this season and losing by 16.7 PPG on average.  The Hawks are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 Friday games.  Atlanta is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  New York is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 Friday games.  Roll with the Knicks Friday. 

20* Rockets/Heat TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +3.5 

The spot couldn’t be better for the Miami Heat tonight.  They’ve had three days off to rest and recover from a tough six-game road trip. Impressively, the Heat went 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS on that road trip, pulling off outright upsets over the Clippers, Grizzlies and Pelicans, while also playing the Lakers right down to the wire and covering.  Now they’ll be motivated to beat another Western Conference team at home tonight. 

The spot couldn’t be much worse for the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They beat the Wizards at home last night in an absolute shootout, setting the NBA record for made 3’s (26) in a game.  Off that record-setting performance, it’s only human nature for them to have a letdown here. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Miami) - a well-rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in December games are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Miami is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Take the Heat Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -6 

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They want revenge from an 83-92 loss at Memphis on December 12th exactly one week ago today.  And they’re home here tonight where they have been playing great basketball up against a short-handed Grizzlies team. 

The Blazers are 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 8.4 points per game.  They are fully healthy right now and really playing well at home of late, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with a 22-point win over Phoenix, and 8-point win over Minnesota and a 6-point win over Toronto.  Dating back further, Portland is 27-10 ATS in its last 37 home gams. 

The Grizzlies are stuck on the struggle bus right now.  They are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. And they are coming off a 17-point loss to the defending champion Warriors, and I always like fading teams after facing the Warriors.  PG Mike Conley hasn’t been healthy for weeks as he continues to battle a hamstring injury and is questionable tonight.  He means everything to this team.  And this is a tired Grizzlies team playing their 8th game in 13 days. 

Memphis is 6-18 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the past two seasons.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Portland) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 72-23 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Brooklyn Nets and ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bulls tonight.  The Nets have won six straight coming into this game and are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And now they are rare road favorites tonight when they have only been favored on the road once this season, and that was at Phoenix. 

It’s an awful spot for the Nets.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over the Lakers last night, so they are clearly in line for a letdown.  Plus, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on a Bulls team that is just 3-15 SU in its last 18 games overall.  They are also coming off a 25-point loss at Oklahoma City.  That followed up an upset win at San Antonio as 9-point dogs to show what they were capable of.  And the Bulls are as healthy as they’ve been all season with Markkanen, Portis and Dunn all recently returning to the lineup.  They should be a money-maker in the short-term moving forward. 

Brooklyn is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 road games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Nets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bulls Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Rockets OVER 223.5

The Wizards have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They are giving up 117.0 points per game and 47.2% shooting overall, including 119.9 points and 48.3% shooting on the road.  They have been good offensively, though, scoring 112.7 points per game on the season.  The Rockets are still an offensive juggernaut, and they play little defense as well, giving up 108.7 points and 47.5% shooting on the season.   

I think the Rockets can hang a big number on the Wizards, who have allowed 109 or more points in eight consecutive games.  But the Wizards will get their points, too, as they’ve scored 110 or more in four straight and six of their last eight.  They’ve only been held below 100 points twice in 31 games this season.  They have held their opponents to less than 100 only three times.  This is a Wizards team that has to play small ball, which favors high-scoring affairs. 

The Wizards and Rockets have already squared off once this season.  The Wizards won 135-131 (OT) at home on November 26th for 266 combined points.  Granted, it went to OT, but it was still 250 combined points at the end of regulation as only 16 points were scored in the extra session.  And the Wizards and Rockets have combined for at least 224 points in three straight meetings now. 

Washington is 37-17-1 OVER in its last 55 games when playing on zero rest.  Houston is 12-2 OVER in home games off three or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three years.  The OVER is 34-16-1 in Wizards last 51 games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 5-1 in Wizards last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  The OVER is 6-0 in Rockets last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks +5 

The Dallas Mavericks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back upset losses to the Suns and Kings, which followed up 12-3 run that has the Mavericks sitting in first place in their division right now.  They are rested and ready to go as they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight. 

I think the Nuggets are in a big letdown spot tonight.  They have managed to win three straight at home over the Grizzlies, Thunder and Raptors despite playing without three starters in Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Will Barton.  Teams can play well in the short-term with injuries, but it catches up to them over the long haul due to depth issues.  I think it starts catching up for the Nuggets tonight, especially off their big win over the Raptors last time out as they won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Mavs. 

Dallas had Denver’s number last season, going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four meetings.  Their two losses came on the road by only 2 and 3 points, and they won their two home meetings with the Nuggets by 17 and 11 points.  And you have to consider that the Nuggets are in a lot worse shape right now than they were last year, while the Mavericks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA and almost 100% healthy. 

The Nuggets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents, while the Mavericks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Northwest Division foes.  Dallas is 29-11 ATS in its lsat 40 games following an ATS loss, and 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss.  Take the Mavericks Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs PK 

The San Antonio Spurs had their four-game winning streak come to an end with an ugly 93-98 home loss to the Bulls last time out.  Look for them to respond in a big way here against the Philadelphia 76ers and continue their success at home, where they are 11-5 SU & 10-6 ATS on the season. 

The Spurs catch the Philadelphia 76ers in a very tough spot here tonight.  The 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning in Cleveland last night.  It's a long flight to San Antonio, and I don’t think the 76ers will have much left in the tank tonight. 

The Spurs are 12-2 SU in their last 14 meetings with the 76ers overall.  The Spurs are 19-2 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the 76ers.  The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of .600 or better.  The Spurs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games. 

San Antonio is 16-4 ATS in December home games over the last three seasons. The Spurs are 14-4 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 16-5 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Take the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +13 

The Chicago Bulls have been more competitive since Jim Boylan took over as head coach.  They have gone 3-2-1 ATS in their last six games with an outright upset at San Antonio as 9-point dogs and an outright upset over Oklahoma City at home as 8-point dogs. 

Now, the Bulls are catching 13 points here on the road in the rematch with the Thunder, and it’s simply too much.  That’s especially the case when you consider the Bulls have gotten a lot healthier in recent weeks.  They’ve gotten Lauri Markkanen (15.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG), Kris Dunn (11.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG) and Bobby Portis (10.7 PPG, 8.4 RPG) back from injury.  This team now has more depth than they’ve had all season. 

The Thunder moved into first place in the Western Conference recently, and have been overvalued since.  They have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  And once again they are laying too many points here against the Bulls as massive 13-point favorites. 

The Bulls have had the Thunder’s number in recent meetings, going 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS with three outright upsets.  Oklahoma City is just 9-26 ATS when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Worse yet, the Thunder are 3-13 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite over the last two years.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +12 

The love for the Indiana Pacers is starting to get out of hand here Sunday.  They are 12-point favorites over the New York Knicks.  Well, the Pacers have only been favored by more than 8 points once all season.  That was as 11.5-point home favorites over the Hawks, and the Pacers failed to cover in an 8-point win. 

The reason the Pacers are getting so much love right now is because they have won six in a row coming in while going 5-1 ATS in the process.  They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Bucks and 76ers as well.  If anything, that sets them up for a letdown spot here as they won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Knicks.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Pacers today. 

Conversely, it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks.  They have gone just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they had a nice 126-124 (OT) road win over the Hornets last time out where they showed a ton of heart in coming back from a big deficit.  And the Knicks certainly want revenge from a 101-107 home loss to the Pacers in their first and only meeting this season.  I like them quite a bit here catching 12 points on the road in the rematch. 

Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less.  Plays on underdogs (New York) - revenging a same season loss, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  New York will put up more of a fight than this line suggests tonight.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers have really been playing some great basketball.  It was always going to take them some time to gel with Lebron James and all the new faces, but they’ve certainly gelled now.  The Lakers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games overall coming in. 

And I like backing the Lakers off their tough loss to Houston on Thursday.  They have been really good following a loss, going 5-1 SU in their last six games off a loss.  And the Lakers are rested right now as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  They should be primed for a big effort here. 

Conversely, the Charlotte Hornets are in an awful spot.  They played an overtime game against the Knicks last night and lost 124-126.  That had to take a lot out of them.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And all five starters played at least 36 minutes last night. 

Charlotte is 6-19 ATS in home games off two consecutive home games over the past three seasons.  Los Angeles is 18-8 ATS after failing to cove the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years.  The Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the lsat 22 meetings.  The Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Charlotte.  Bet the Lakers Saturday. 

15* Raptors/Blazers NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland +4 

The Toronto Raptors are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back road wins over the Clippers and Warriors.  They were 8-point dogs to the Warriors, and now they are 4-point favorites at the Blazers.  And they’re certainly in a huge letdown spot off that big win over the Warriors. 

Toronto has some serious injury concerns moving forward.  Kawhi Leonard has been sitting out with a hip injury and is questionable to return tonight.  They haven’t needed him, so I’m not concerned whether he plays or not.  But they just lost Jonas Valanciunas for the next four-to-six weeks with a thumb injury in that win over the Warriors.  He provides much-needed toughness inside, and they’re going to miss him more than what will get factored into the point spread moving forward. 

Portland comes in highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses to Houston and Memphis.  The Blazers had their chances late in both of those games, but finished poorly.  Now they return home, and this team has one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA.  They have a tremendous home-court advantage, going 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS while outscoring their opponents by 8.6 points per game in Portland. 

Plays on underdogs (Portland) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in December games are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 home games.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Portland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Toronto.  Roll with the Blazers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5 

This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA.  I like backing teams who are playing with quick revenge after a recent loss to their opponent.  The Cavs lost 92-108 at Milwaukee as 10-point dogs on Monday, December 10th, and now they are 10.5-point dogs at home in the rematch.  There’s clearly some value here. 

The Cavs are playing very well at home of late.  They beat the Wizards 116-101 outright as 7.5-point dogs, and then the Knicks 113-106 outright as 1.5-point dogs in their last two home games.  And this is a team that is getting healthier with several guys recently returning from injury.  The addition of Matthew Dellavedova from the Bucks is also paying dividends as he’s playing big, important minutes and has been a nice role model for rookie sensation Collin Sexton. 

While the Cavs will be highly motivated for revenge on Milwaukee, the Bucks will have a hard time getting up for this game considering they just beat the Cavs by 16 four days ago.  And the Bucks have been a bad bet on the road this season, going 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS while only outscoring their opponents by 2.2 points per game on average.  The Cavs are only getting beat by 4.4 points per game at home this year. 

Milwaukee is 20-48 ATS in its last 68 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Bucks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games dating back to last season.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are having some fun right now.  I’ve watched this team a lot this season and have been impressed with what I’ve seen, especially of late.  They had lost eight straight games, including back-to-back heartbreaking 2-point losses to close out the streak.  But they didn’t give in. 

Since those two 2-point losses, the Nets have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Raptors 106-105 (OT) at home and celebrated like they won the NBA title.  It was fun to see, and this team has just kept on rolling since.  They went on the road and beat the Knicks 112-104 as 2-point dogs, and then upset the 76ers 127-124 as 6-point dogs.  And this is a fresh team right now as the Nets will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Wizards just can’t be trusted.  They have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season at 11-17.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost by 15 at Cleveland as 7.5-point favorites, by 8 at Indiana as 6-point dogs, and then in OT 125-130 to Boston at home as 3.5-point dogs.  And after playing the Celtics, they certainly won’t get up to face the Nets and this is a ‘hangover’ spot for them.  It’s also a sandwich spot with the Lakers on deck. 

The Nets have had the Wizards’ number in recent meetings, going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  In their last two home meetings with the Wizards, the Nets won 119-84 and 103-98, both times winning outright as underdogs.  And they should have no problem covering this short 1.5-point spread at home here tonight.  John Wall is hobbled by an ankle injury and left last game, while Otto Porter Jr. is questionable with a knee injury after sitting out last game. 

Washington is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.  It is losing by a whopping 17.7 points per game on average in this spot.  On the season, the Wizards are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS on the road, getting outscored by 10.8 points per game.  Dating back further, the Wizards are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Brooklyn is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Washington.  Bet the Nets Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2.5 

The San Antonio Spurs have been a great home team this season.  They are 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this year.  I like them here quite a bit laying this short number to the Los Angeles Clippers, who have finally come back down to reality here of late. 

The Clippers were the No. 1 team in the West just a short few weeks ago, but they’ve hit a wall.  They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only win came 123-119 (OT) against the Phoenix Suns, who are far and away the worst team in the West.  The three losses came by 10, 23 and 24 points. 

A big reason the Clippers are going to continue to struggle in the short-term is the loss of Lou Williams (17.2 PPG, 4.5 APG) to a hamstring injury.  He isn’t someone who affects the point spread, but he should.  He is the best 6th man in the league and provides a huge scoring punch for the Clippers’ bench.  Without Williams, the Clippers no longer have the bench advantage they’ve had all season. 

The Spurs are 36-10 SU in their last 46 home meetings with the Clippers.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with the Spurs winning by 18 and 13 points in their last two home meetings with the Clippers.  The Spurs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

San Antonio also wants revenge from a 111-116 road loss to the Clippers in their lone meeting this season on November 15th.  Well, the Spurs are 10-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  Take the Spurs Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +3.5 

The Sacramento Kings should not be home underdogs to the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  The Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, and they continue to be here.  They are 14-12 SU & 16-10 ATS in all games this season. 

The Kings have really turned it on of late, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, with three of those wins all coming by 17 points or more.  It’s even more impressive when you consider that four of those five games were on the road. 

The Timberwolves are in a tough spot here.  They are coming off two straight road games against the Blazers and Warriors.  And after losing to the Warriors on Monday, there’s no way they’ll be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight as they were the defending champs.  Minnesota is just 2-10 on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game.  That’s why they can’t be favored here. 

Minnesota is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring three of their last four against the spread over the past two seasons.  They are losing by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot.  Sacramento is 12-2 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  The Timberwolves ar e12-25 ATS in their last 37 road games.  The Kings are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days’ rest. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -5.5 

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have handled their business at home, going 9-5 SU & 9-5 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 7.5 points per game.  And they’re fully healthy in this one while also coming in on two days’ rest, so they are fresh and ready to go.  It’s also just their 4th game in 10 days. 

Detroit is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  All five losses have come by 6 points or more, and I think you can chalk up a 6th straight loss by at least 6 points for them here.  The Pistons will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 8th game in 13 days.  They are a tired team right now. 

That fatigue has led to some injuries lately that are really holding the Pistons back.  They are without Reggie Bullock (10.1 PPG) and Ish Smith (9.2 PPG), and Stanley Johnson (9.8 PPG) is banged up and questionable with a knee injury.  All three are among their top six scorers this season, so they are very short on depth right now. 

The Hornets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Pistons, winning all three by 10 points or more and by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Charlotte is 10-2 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in three straight games this season.  The Pistons are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Detroit is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Pistons.  The favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +7 

The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Jimmy Butler, who suffered a groin injury last time out and will miss this game.  After trading away Dario Saric and Robert Covington for Butler, and with Markelle Fultz out with a shoulder injury, the 76ers are really short on talent and depth right now. 

The Nets suffered two straight crushing losses to Cleveland (by 2) and Oklahoma City (by 2) to start the month of December.  But they have rallied since, upsetting the Raptors 106-105 as 8.5-point home underdogs.  Then they went on the road the next night and beat the Knicks 112-104.  Now, the Nets are working on three days’ rest having last played on Saturday, so they are primed for a big effort. 

The first two meetings this season show that the Nets have the 76ers’ number.  The Nets won 122-97 as 4-point home underdogs in their first meeting.  Then they let the 76ers off the hook in the 2nd meeting, blowing a 68-54 halftime lead and losing 125-127 as 4.5-point home dogs, so they covered.  And now they’re catching 7 points here in the 3rd meeting and out for revenge for that blown lead, plus they’re rested and up against a depleted 76ers squad. 

Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  The Nets are 17-6 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall when playing on three days’ rest or more.  Brooklyn is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 road games.  Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the Nets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -12.5 

The San Antonio Spurs are 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off back-to-back home wins over the Lakers (133-120) and Jazz (110-97) by 13 points apiece.  And they should have no problem winning by 13 points or more to cover this 12.5-point spread against the Phoenix Suns tonight. 

The Suns are in an awful spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-123 (OT) loss to the Clippers last night.  I always like looking to fade teams on a back-to-back, especially when they’re coming off an OT game.  This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for Phoenix.  The Spurs had yesterday off. 

The Suns are without Devin Booker right now, which is a big reason they are 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Seven of those nine losses have come by double-digits, so they’re used to losing by these margins.  They are 1-12 SU & 3-10 ATS on the road this season, losing by 15.2 points per game on average. 

The Spurs are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Suns.  Their last six home wins have all come by 14 points or more and by an average of 19.2 points per game.  San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  After losing in Phoenix in their last meeting this season, the Spurs won’t be taking the Suns lightly tonight.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday. 

15* Heat/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +7 

The Miami Heat are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset both the Pelicans and Jazz at home, and throttled the Suns by 17 and the Clippers by 23 on the road. 

The spot is a good one for the Heat tonight.  They didn’t have to travel as they played in Los Angeles on Saturday.  They probably went out Saturday night and had Sunday to recover.  And now they’ll be looking forward to the opportunity of trying to pull the Staples Center sweep tonight.  Plus, they get Goran Dragic back from injury, and they are getting healthy and becoming a very dangerous team because of it. 

The Lakers are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They have won five of their last six while going 4-1-1 ATS in the process.  But it has mostly been against an easy schedule.  And while the Lakers will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here, the Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 7 days. 

Miami is 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 home games after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games.  The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five Monday games. 

Plays against home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers will be without two key players in Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo tonight as well.  Roll with the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +2 

It’s no surprise that the Denver Nuggets have lost two straight games to the Hornets and Hawks coming into this game.  For starters, they just played five straight road games.  And now they’re in their first game back home after being on the road for 10 days.  I always like fading teams in this spot. 

The Nuggets will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days here.  And their injury situation is the biggest reason I’m fading them tonight.  They are without Gary Harris (16.6 PPG), Will Barton (16.5 PPG) and Paul Millsap (13.6 PPG), who are three of their top five scores.  And they may also be without leading scorer Jamal Murray (17.4 PPG), who suffered a shin injury in their loss to the Hawks on Saturday and is questionable tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies are fully healthy right now with both Mike Conley and Garrett Temple expected to play.  And at full strength and up against a depleted Nuggets squad, the Grizzlies should be favored in this game even though it’s on the road. 

Memphis is 7-0 ATS in road games off a home game this season.  The Grizzlies are 34-19 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last three seasons, so they are in the same situation as the Nuggets, but it doesn’t seem to phase them.  Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Denver is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes.  Take the Grizzlies Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -5 

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They come in on two days’ rest and off a bad upset loss at Chicago as 8.5-point favorites.  So they’ll be fresh and ready to go, plus they’ll be highly motivated for a win off that Chicago loss. 

Adding to Oklahoma City’s motivation tonight is the fact that Utah bounced them from the playoffs last year. Paul George had one of the worst games of his career in their 96-91 loss at Utah in Game 6.  He and Russell Westbrook will be looking to make amends.  In fact, I don’t think the Thunder will be more motivated for any other game in the regular season than this one. 

Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off their 97-110 loss in San Antonio last night.  So you have a team playing for a second consecutive day up against a team with two days’ rest.  The Thunder have a huge scheduling advantage in this one to say the least. 

The Thunder are 9-3 at home this season and winning by 8.7 points per game on average.  The Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when playing on zero rest.  Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The home team is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  The Thunder are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with the Jazz.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on San Antonio Spurs +4 

The revenge tour of the San Antonio Spurs continues tonight.  They avenged a 113-121 road loss to the Lakers on Wednesday with a 133-120 home win over the Lakers on Friday.  And now they’ll be looking to avenge their 105-139 road loss to the Jazz on Tuesday when they get to host Utah this time around. 

San Antonio has gone 71-22 SU in its last 93 home meetings with Utah.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  I don’t think the Spurs should be home dogs tonight, let alone 4-point home dogs. 

The Spurs are a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season.  San Antonio is also a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, including 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Spurs Sunday. 

15* Bucks/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -5 

The Raptors are coming off a bad overtime loss to the Nets last time out.  That should have them refocused and ready to go at home tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They’ll also want revenge from a 109-124 loss at Milwaukee in their first meeting this season. 

No team is as equipped to stop Giannis and the Bucks quite like Toronto.  Kawhi Leonard is arguably the best defender in the NBA, and he’ll relish the challenge to top Giannis tonight.  I expect a big effort from the Raptors here. 

The Bucks have done most of their damage at home thanks to a home-heavy schedule with 15 home games compared to just 9 road games.  And the Bucks are just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS on the road this season. 

Toronto is 14-3 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  Roll with the Raptors Sunday. 

20* T’Wolves/Blazers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -2 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have lost six of their last eight and are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The betting public doesn’t want anything to do with them, and these are just the types of teams I’m looking to back. 

The Blazers are coming off a 22-point win over the Suns, though, and now they get star guard CJ McCollum back from injury tonight.  They are 100% healthy and should make easy work of the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are getting way too much respect from the books right now. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on the Timberwolves, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But those six wins have come against six teams with losing records, so they have simply feasted on an easy schedule.  The only good team they played during this stretch was Boston, and they lost at home. 

The Timberwolves are just 2-8 on the road this season, losing by 7.1 points per game.  The Blazers are 9-4  at home and winning by 8.6 points per game.  Portland is 37-10 SU in its last 47 home meetings with Minnesota, including 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings.  The home team is 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings. 

The Blazers are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 meetings with the Timberwolves.  Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in road games after covering three of its last four against the spread over the past two seasons.  Portland is 9-1 ATS after allowing 90 points or less over the last two years.  The Blazers are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -2 

Both the Grizzlies and Lakers are in tough spots tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  However, the Grizzlies have had more rest over the last few weeks, so they are the preferred side here.  The Grizzlies will be playing their 5th game in 11 days, while the Lakers will be playing their 6th game in 10 days. 

The Lakers have been pretty dreadful on the road this season at 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS.  They lost by 13 to the Spurs last night and by 32 to the Nuggets in their last two road games.  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season.  And they basically just have to win this game to cover the spread. 

Making matters worse for the Lakers is the fact that they are playing without two key players right now in Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo.  Given this tough rest situation, their lack of depth to make up for those two key losses is huge.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies tonight.  The Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games when their Starting 5 combines for more than 160 minutes played the previous day. 

Los Angeles is 1-8 ATS vs. good ball-handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Lakers are 4-13 ATS after having won four of their last five games over the past two seasons.  Memphis is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last three years.  The Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2.5 

There are so many factors favoring the Knicks to win and cover tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.  I’ll gladly lay the short number with them here at home in a game they should win in blowout fashion. 

The Knicks are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 4th game in 10 days tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days.  This is a tired, vulnerable Nets team right now, especially after going into overtime last night.

The Nets are just 1-8 SU in their last nine games overall.  But they did upset the Raptors 106-105 at home last night.  However, that works against them now because it’s a letdown spot after beating the team with the best record in the NBA.  They won’t get up for the Knicks nearly as much as they were up for the Raptors last night, and they certainly won’t have much left in the tank for the Knicks. 

The Knicks own the Nets, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  They won by 19 at home earlier this season, and by 16 in their final home meeting last season.  They also won by 21 in their first home meetings last season.  Each of their last five wins in this series have come by 7 points or more, including four by double-digits. 

Brooklyn is 0-7 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  It is losing by 8.4 points per game on average in this spot.  The Nets are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when playing on zero rest.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with Brooklyn. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New York) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Mavericks +3 

What more do the Dallas Mavericks have to do to get some respect around here?  Until they do, I’ll keep backing them as home underdogs tonight against the Houston Rockets, who have no business being favored with the way they are playing right now. 

The Mavericks are a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.  They have beaten the likes of the Thunder, Jazz, Warriors, Celtics, Clippers and Blazers at home during this stretch, so it’s not like they are feasting on weak competition.  And now the Mavericks have two days’ rest to get ready for the Rockets after last playing on Wednesday. 

The Rockets are just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are coming off a 27-point loss to the Jazz, which is their fourth loss by at least 9 points during this stretch.  One of those was at home against the Mavericks on November 28th as the Mavs won 128-108 as 5.5-point dogs, covering the spread by 25.5 points. 

The Mavs are 7-0 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 this season.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven when heir opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  And add in that the Mavericks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games, and we have a combined 29-0 system backing Dallas in this one.  Roll with the Mavericks Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9 

I think the Bulls are a ‘bet on’ team in the immediate future right now.  That’s because they fired Fred Hoiberg on Monday, and getting a new voice will be good for them as veteran assistant Jim Boylen has taken over the reigns.  I cashed in the Bulls +8.5 against the Pacers on Wednesday, and I’m back on them again tonight. 

I don’t think Hoiberg got a fair shake, but he clearly wasn’t getting through to his players.  And now Boylen takes over just in time for their best player in Lauri Markkanen returning from injury.  This will be his third game back from injury after missing the first 23 games of the season.  And the Bulls are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here. 

Oklahoma City will be playing its 3rd game in 5 days here.  The Thunder erased an 88-65 deficit to beat the Nets 114-112 as 6-point road favorites on Wednesday thanks to a game-winning 3-pointer from Paul George.  I think the Thunder are way overvalued right now, and this is definitely a ‘hangover’ spot for them off that huge comeback win. 

Oklahoma City is 15-33 ATS in its last 48 games following a road win by 3 points or less.  Chicago is 14-3 ATS in December games over the last two seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Chicago) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive losses are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5 

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They sit at 12-11 on the season and will win their third straight game here against the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers.  I love the spot for the Kings as they are rested and ready to go, playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here tonight.  It will also be just their 4th game in 12 days. 

The Cavaliers are a tired team right now, which has contributed to their 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS record in their last six games overall.  They will be playing their 9th game in 15 days.  They are coming off a 105-129 home loss to the Warriors, and that makes this a ‘hangover’ spot for them after playing the defending champs. 

The Cavs are decimated by injuries right now.  Kevin Love, Sam Dekker, JR Smith and David Nwaba are all out.  Plus, they traded Kyle Korver to the Jazz.  These injuries have taken their toll, especially since the Cavaliers were already short on talent coming into the season.  And their lack of depth is really catching up to them now. 

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  Cleveland is 6-22-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last three years.  The Kings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Cleveland.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Kings Friday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +1 

The Denver Nuggets are starting to get too much love for going 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They’re now road favorites over the Hornets tonight and they shouldn’t be.  I think this is a great spot to fade the Nuggets, who will be playing their 4th straight road games and are coming off an overtime win over the Magic.  Four of their seven wins during this streak have either come by 3 points or less or in OT. 

I love the spot for the Hornets.  They’ll be highly motivated for a win off three straight losses to Utah, New Orleans and Minnesota.  And they will be rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  They are primed for one of their best efforts of the season.  Plus, the Nuggets will be without leading scorer Gary Harris tonight, and his absence is a big one. 

The Hornets have had the Nuggets’ number in recent seasons.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings.  They won 110-93 as 2-point home underdogs last year, and 122-114 at home the season prior.  The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Charlotte. 

Plays on underdogs (Charlotte) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games on the season.  Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six Friday games.  Bet the Hornets Friday.  

20* Rockets/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2 

The Utah Jazz were knocked out of the playoffs by the Houston Rockets last year.  Their revenge tour doesn’t stop just because they won 100-89 in Houston earlier this season.  They want to kick the Rockets while they’re down and win at home here tonight as mere 2-point home favorites. 

This is a Rockets team that’s really struggling right now.  They have gone just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They’ve lost to the likes of the Pistons, Cavs, Wizards, Mavericks and Timberwolves.  Their only wins came against the Bulls and struggling Spurs. 

The Jazz are playing better now that their best player in Donovan Mitchell is healthy.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming on the road by two points.  Their three wins came by a total of 52 points, or by an average of 17.3 points per game. 

The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Quin Snyder is 37-19 ATS when playing against a team that wins 40% to 49% of their games as the coach of Utah.  Bet the Jazz Thursday. 

15* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 217.5 

The Knicks and Celtics are clearly familiar with one another by now.  This will already be their 3rd meeting of the season.  Familiarity favors defense as it’s tougher for the offenses to get to their spots because the defenses usually know those spots and take them away. 

The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.  They have combined for 209 or fewer points in five of those seven meetings, so I think there’s some value here with the UNDER.  And both teams will be prepared defensively because the Celtics come in on four days’ rest, while the Knicks come in on two days’ rest. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (Boston) - revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite of 7 points or more, who are also off a road win are 35-13 (72.9%) over the last five seasons. 

Boston is 14-4 UNDER off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Knicks last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -2 

The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four of their last five games coming in.  All four losses came by 8 points or less, so they were competitive in every game.  But I really like this game because of a couple other factors as well, including rest and revenge. 

The Grizzlies are clearly the more rested team.  They will be playing on two days’ rest having last played on Sunday.  Plus, this will be just their 3rd game in 8 days.  Meanwhile, the Clippers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th straight road game. 

The Grizzlies want revenge from their 107-112 (OT) loss at the Clippers on November 23rd less than two weeks ago.  Since that game is fresh in their minds, revenge is a factor.  And given their rest advantage, they should be able to win at home this time around after losing in OT on the road in the last matchup.  Keep in mind the Clippers were coming in on two days’ rest prior to that win as well. 

The Grizzlies are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7 

I think this is a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Brooklyn Nets and ‘sell high’ on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  This number has been inflated because the Thunder have been covering machines lately, while the Nets have been big point spread losers. 

Indeed, the Thunder are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall, while the Nets are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Oddsmakers have to adjust for these trends, and I think they have over-corrected here tonight. 

The Nets gave the Thunder all they wanted in both meetings last year.  The Nets won 100-95 as 7-point dogs on a neutral court in their first meeting.  They only lost 108-109 as 9.5-point dogs at Oklahoma City in the second meeting. 

Brooklyn is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Thunder.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - after going under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games, in the first half of the season are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5 

I know the Magic are playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after their 105-90 win in Miami last night.  But it’s short travel, and they had three days off prior to that game.  So they’ll still be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here, which clearly negates this back-to-back situation.  And the Magic are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on zero rest. 

The Nuggets are being overvalued right now due to going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. And they are in a huge letdown spot here off their 106-103 road win over the Raptors on Monday.  I don’t think they’ll be nearly as excited to face the Magic on the road tonight as they were the Raptors. 

The Magic have been grossly undervalued for a month now, and it hasn’t stopped.  They have gone 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have won outright as underdogs six times during this stretch, and they’ve been a dog in 11 of those 13 games.  And now they are 5.5-point home dogs here when this line should be closer to a pick ‘em. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Denver) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 70-28 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Denver) - after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games, in December games are 58-17 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

15* Spurs/Jazz NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +8.5 

The Utah Jazz aren’t playing well enough to be laying 8.5 points to the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They are just 7-11 SU & 7-11 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  I’ll gladly fade them here as massive favorites over the Spurs tonight. 

I think the Jazz are a tired team right now.  They will be playing their 11th game in 19 days tonight.  And they’ve been on the road for 10 of their last 12 games coming in.  All this travel is certainly wearing on this team.  And they have the distractions from returning home from that long road trip, dealing with friends and family back home. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days, in December games are 69-36 (65.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jazz are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the Spurs Tuesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +8.5 

I always like backing teams in their first game with a new head coach because they seem to respond well.  And I expect that to be the case for the Chicago Bulls here tonight.  They fired Fred Hoiberg on Monday, and now longtime NBA assistant Jim Boylen takes over.  Boylen was an assistant coach under Frank Vogel and the Pacers from 2011-13. 

The Bulls also recently got back their best player in big man Lauir Markkanen, who scored 10 points in 26 minutes in his season debut against the Rockets after missing each of team’s first 23 games with an elbow injury.  Markkanen is expected to start Tuesday after coming off the bench against the Rockets. 

The Pacers have been without guard Victor Oladipo for the past seven games due to a knee injury.  He remains out tonight.  The Pacers have gone just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games with one of their wins coming against the lowly Suns by 5 points.  They can’t be laying 8.5 points tonight to the Bulls without Oladipo. 

Plays on underdogs (Chicago) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in December games are 67-32 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 13-3 ATS in December games over the past two seasons.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -1.5 

The Houston Rockets have been very good when Chris Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela have been on the floor at the same time.  They’ve been dreadful without one or more of them.  Well, all three are healthy, and the Rockets are as healthy as they’ve been all season right now. 

It has started to show in their play the past two games as well.  They went into San Antonio and won by 31 as 4-point favorites.  Then they handled their business at home against Chicago in a 16-point win as 13-point favorites.  And I expect them to go on the road and beat the Timberwolves tonight. 

Minnesota played well without Jimmy Butler for a while, but it’s going to catch up with them sooner rather than later.  And they lost to the Celtics 109-118 at home as 1.5-point favorites last time out.  That was a Celtics team in a tough spot playing the second of a back-to-back. 

The Timberwolves are simply getting way too much respect from oddsmakers because of their recent success without Butler, but it has come against some of the worst teams in the NBA in Brooklyn, Chicago, Cleveland and San Antonio.  This is a big step up in class, just like the Celtics were. 

The Rockets have simply owned the Timberwolves, going 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings.  Houston is 12-0 ATS in its last 12 games following seven or more consecutive overs.  Roll with the Rockets Monday. 

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2 

The New York Knicks have been flying under the radar in recent weeks. They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, and I’ve been on them for the majority of the wins.  And now they’re once again undervalued as home underdogs to the struggling Washington Wizards when they shouldn’t be. 

The Knicks have four outright upsets as 7.5-point dogs or more in their last seven games, which just shows how undervalued they’ve been.  They won outright on the road as 14.5-point dogs at Boston and 8-point dogs at Memphis.  They also won outright at home as 7.5-point dogs against New Orleans and 8-point dogs against Milwaukee. 

The Wizards are 9-14 SU & 8-14-1 ATS this season.  They have really struggled on the road, going 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS while getting outscored by a whopping 14.1 points per game in the process.  They play zero defense on the road, giving up 122.4 points per game.  I just don’t agree with them being favorites here given their road woes and how well the Knicks are playing. 

Washington is 6-21 ATS in road games against Atlantic Division opponents over the last three seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the Knicks Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks +2.5 

The Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now and should not be home underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only two losses coming on the road to the Lakers and Grizzlies. 

The Mavs are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, beating the Wizards, Thunder, Jazz, Warriors, Nets and Celtics along the way.  So they have beaten some of the league’s best teams at home during this stretch.  They also won at Houston by 20 as 5.5-point underdogs. 

The Clippers are the team that’s starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after their surprising 15-6 start to the season.  They have won eight of their last nine coming in, but most of that has come against the league’s worst teams.  Now they are road favorites over the Mavs when they shouldn’t be. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Mavs have won 29 of their last 40 home meetings with the Clippers.  The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8.5 

The New York Knicks have been grossly underrated over the last few weeks.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, which includes outright road upsets over Boston as 14.5-point dogs, Memphis as 8-point dogs, and a home upset of New Orleans as 7.5-point dogs. 

I’ve been riding the Knicks for the majority of these games.  Their only non-cover was against the 76ers last time out, but that was the second of a back-to-back and a tough spot.  They have now had two days’ rest since playing the 76ers on Wednesday and should be fresh and ready to go at home tonight. 

The Bucks are starting to be grossly overrated due to their hot start to the season.  They are 15-6 on the season, but just 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games.  They lost outright to the Suns as 13.5-point home favorites, and outright to the Hornets as 4.5-point road favorites.  They only beat the Spurs by 6 as 10-point home favorites and the Bulls by 3 as 15-point home favorites.  And now they are massive 8.5-point road favorites against the Knicks tonight, which is simply too much. 

New York wants revenge from a 113-124 loss at Milwaukee as 11.5-point underdogs in their first meeting of the season on October 22nd.  The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. 

Plays against any team (Milwaukee) - off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, in Saturday games are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -12 

The Boston Celtics are a good ‘buy low’ candidate right now. They have gotten off to a disappointing 11-10 start this season, but they are starting to play up to their potential.  They beat Atlanta by 18 on the road and New Orleans by 17 on the road in winning two of their last three coming in. 

Now the Celtics are well-rested and ready to go having last played on Monday, coming in on three days’ rest.  Meanwhile, they’ll be playing a Cleveland Cavaliers team that will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  So the Celtics should have a huge advantage in the rest department here. 

And I haven’t even factored in that the Cavaliers are one of the worst teams in the NBA yet.  Cleveland is 4-16 this season, including 1-9 on the road where they are losing by an average of double-digits per game.  They are coming off a 17-point loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. 

Boston is 12-1 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games coming in over the past two seasons.  The Celtics are 15-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 19-43-2 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games.  Take the Celtics Friday. 

15* Pacers/Lakers NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -4.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers should be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back losses, including their worst loss of the season in an 85-117 setback at Denver.  It was definitely Lebron James’ worst game of the season.  James and company will be looking to make amends tonight. 

The Pacers are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers off back-to-back road wins at Utah and Phoenix. And now they’ll be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  Plus, they’ll be without their best player in Victor Oladipo (21.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.7 APG).  I just don’t think they’ll even be competitive tonight against a motivated Lakers squad without Oladipo. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Lakers and Pacers.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Lakers have won their last two home meetings with the Pacers outright as underdogs by 13 points each, and they didn’t have James or near the talent they have now in those two matchups. 

The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their road games.  Los Angeles is 7-2 ATS in its last nine Thursday games, while Indiana is 16-33-2 ATS in its last 51 Thursday games.  The Lakers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with the Lakers Thursday. 

20* Clippers/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 235.5 

I cashed the Clippers/Suns UNDER 230 last night with ease in a game that saw only 214 combined points.  And now I’m back on the UNDER in another Clippers game tonight, this time with a total even higher (235.5) and against the Sacramento Kings. 

The Clippers won’t be looking to push the tempo playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here.  And a big reason I was on the UNDER last night was because Avery Bradley is healthy now, and the Clippers have the best defensive backcourt in the NBA with Bradley and Patrick Beverly.  They made life tough on Devin Booker last night, and they will make life tough on De’Aron Fox and the Kings guards tonight as well. 

I think this number is inflated because the Kings have gone over the total in six straight, while the Clippers have gone over seven of their last nine.  It’s an overreaction and one we’ll take advantage of here just as we did last night. 

The Clippers and Kings have combined for 236 or fewer points in 86 straight meetings dating back to 1996.  They have combined for 232 or fewer points in 84 of those 86 meetings.  The UNDER is 16-5 in Kings last 21 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five games following a double-digit home loss. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 210 or higher (LA Clippers) - who give up 43.5% to 45.5% shooting on the season against a team that gives up 45.5% to 47.5% after five straight games where they held their opponent to 42% or less are 26-6 (81.2%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Clippers UNDER 230 

The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA when both Avery Bradley and Patrick Beverly are on the floor.  They make life hell on opposing guards, and they’ll do just that against Devin Booker of the Suns tonight. 

The Suns have improved defensively this season, but their offense as stalled because nobody other than Booker can make plays consistently.  The defensive improvement has come from the additions of Trevor Ariza and DeAndre Ayton.  The Suns are combining with their opponents to average just 218.4 points per game this season.  That’s well UNDER this 230-point mark. 

I think the fact that the Clippers have gone over the total in seven of their last eight coming in has inflated this number.  But they didn’t have Bradley for the majority of it, and having him back healthy will improve their defense greatly. 

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 210, 203 and 218 in the three UNDERS.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.  Phoenix is 16-5 UNDER after allowing 105 or more points in five straight games over the last two seasons.   

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or more (LA Clippers) - after a win by 6 points or less against an opponent that’s off a loss by 6 points or less are 52-22 (70.3%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on San Antonio Spurs +4.5 

The Timberwolves are starting to get too much love from oddsmakers.  They have won three straight, but those three victories came against the Nets, Bulls and Cavs, three of the worst teams in the entire NBA.  They take a big step up in class here against the Spurs tonight. 

Few teams have owned a franchise quite like the Spurs have owned the Timberwolves.  San Antonio is 14-1 SU in its last 15 meetings with Minnesota.  That’s why they should not even be underdogs in this game, let alone 4.5-point dogs, which could easily come into play tonight. 

The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Minnesota.  Roll with the Spurs Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Jazz have to be highly motivated for a victory right now.  They have lost four of their last five coming in.  But they get their best player in Donovan Mitchell back from a rib injury, and he is worth more to the point spread for this team than almost any other player in the NBA. 

The Nets suffered a big blow when they lost Caris LeVert, their best player, to a foot injury a few weeks ago.  They have struggled to find their footing, going just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They should be catching more than just 3.5 points here against the Jazz. 

Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Nets, and 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Brooklyn. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in non-conference games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +7.5 

The New York Knicks have been undervalued for four straight games now, and I’ve been on them for three of them.  I’m on them again tonight catching 7.5 points to the Pistons.  Oddsmakers and the betting public just keep failing to realize this team is actually pretty good, and much better than their 7-14 record would suggest. 

Four games back, the Knicks only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers.  Then they went on the road and beat Boston by 8 outright as 14.5-point dogs.  Then they upset the Pelicans by 5 as 7.5-point dogs.  And last time out they went into Memphis and won outright by 5 as 8-point dogs.  And here we are again with the Knicks catching another big number against Detroit tonight. 

The Pistons come in overvalued here after going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Unlike New York, Detroit is actually getting respect from oddsmakers now.  And these are expectations that I don’t think they can live up to tonight here against the Knicks as this one should go right down to the wire with New York possibly pulling off a 4th straight upset. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - off a road win, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games when playing a team with a winning record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday. 

15* Rockets/Wizards NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Washington +2.5 

The Washington Wizards are starting to play up to their potential now that the trade rumors started swirling.  They realize they are playing for their jobs now, and it’s finally nice to see them play to their capability. 

The Wizards are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Clippers 125-118 at home as 1-point favorites and the Pelicans 124-114 at home as 3.5-point favorites.  Their only loss came on the road at Toronto during this stretch.  And they should not be home dogs to the Rockets here. 

Houston is coming off back-to-back upset road losses at Detroit (by 5) as 3.5-point favorites and at Cleveland (by 9) as 6.5-point favorites.  They have some serious injury issues right now with Chris Paul (leg) questionable and Gerald Green (ankle) questionable, and they still haven’t gotten a replacement for Carmelo Anthony.  They just aren’t playing well at all right now at 9-9 on the season, and they are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA. 

The Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the Wizards Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8.5 

The New York Knicks are getting zero respect from oddsmakers and I’ll continue to back them until they do.  They are catching 8.5 points here against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, which is simply too much. 

The Knicks have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers, won outright by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs to the Celtics, and won outright by 5 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Pelicans.  This team is better than the betting public realizes, and they should give the Grizzlies a run for their money tonight. 

No question the Grizzlies have been undervalued up to this point.  They have gone 12-6 SU & 12-6 ATS on the season.  However, now they are being asked to lay a big number here, when usually they are in the role of the underdog.  In fact, Memphis hasn’t been more than a 7.5-point favorite in any game this season.  So this bar has been set too high here as 8.5-point favorites over the Knicks. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - off a win, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games when playing a team with a winning record are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Denver Nuggets +6 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to get too much respect from the books after going 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall.  I faded them last night with success on the Hornets +6, and I’ll fade them again here in this tough spot as the Thunder will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. 

The Nuggets are in the same situation, but I worry less about them, especially after they blew out Orlando 112-87 last night so their starters didn’t have to play too many minutes.  Plus, the Nuggets are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, so they are suited for these back-to-back situations as well as anyone.  The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest. 

The Nuggets have had the THunder’s number, going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Their only loss during this stretch came by a single point as 5-point road dogs in a 95-94 loss.  And here they are catching 6 points, which could certainly come into play tonight even if they don’t win straight up. 

The Nuggets are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 division games, while the Thunder are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 division games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Nuggets Saturday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +1 

This is a play against the New Orleans Pelicans.  They are already without one starter in Elfrid Payton, and now they could be without their best player in Anthony Davis, who had to leave last night’s game against the Knicks with a strained quad.  Even if Davis plays I still like this pick, but if he doesn’t it would be an added bonus. 

The Pelicans are running on fumes right now.  They’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the entire NBA.  And the Pelicans have been awful on the road this season, going 2-8 SU.  So they shouldn’t be favored here given the spot and their road struggles. 

The spot isn’t nearly as bad for the Wizards.  Yes, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, but they had two days off prior to last night’s game.  That means it will be just their 2nd game in 4 days here.  And they are a young, deep enough team to where these back-to-backs don’t affect them as much. 

The Wizards have owned the Pelicans, going 12-1 SU in the last 13 meetings.  They are a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  New Orleans is 0-7 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Bet the Wizards Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +6 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are primed for a letdown here.  They went into Thanksgiving Break with a huge National TV win over Golden State 123-95 on Wednesday.  After beating the defending champs, they’ll have a very hard time getting up to play the Charlotte Hornets tonight. 

The Hornets have improved as much as almost any team in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 9-8 SU & 11-6 ATS start this season while outscoring their opponents by 5.4 points per game.  The improvements have come on offense, where they are scoring 115.7 points per game.  And Kemba Walker is having an MVP-caliber season thus far to lead the way, plus all of their young talent is starting to come into their own. 

Plays on road underdogs (Charlotte) - off three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more against an opponent that has scored 110 points or more in three straight games are 41-17 (70.7%) ATS since 1996.   

Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Hornets Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +7.5

The New York Knicks are way undervalued right now.  They got off to a fast start this season, became overvalued, but then have lost six of their last seven coming in.  And they’ve been catching too many points here of late, including tonight at home against the Pelicans. 

The Knicks only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers, and won outright by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs at Boston in their last two games.  And now they are catching 7 points here at home against a Pelicans team that is simply getting too much love right now. 

Indeed, the Pelicans have won six of their last eight coming in, while also covering five of their last seven against the spread.  And when you consider the Pelicans are only 2-7 SU on the road this season, there’s no way they should be favored by 7 points on the highway here against the Knicks. 

New York wants revenge from a 124-129 road loss at New Orleans as 11-point dogs on November 16th just a week ago today.  That also sets the Knicks up for a very profitable system in support of them. 

Plays on underdogs (New York) - revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards +10 

The Washington Wizards have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA thus far.  And there is now trade talk where management says nobody is off limits.  That negative media attention certainly has the Wizards undervalued right now. 

The Wizards showed a ton of heart last time out after the rumors, coming back from 19 points down at halftime to beat the Clippers 125-118.  If they were going to quit, it would have shown in that game.  And now I think they can rally around that comeback victory and start playing up to their potential moving forward. 

The Raptors are starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers after their 15-4 start to the season.  And I think this is a terrible spot for them.  They are coming off a four-game road trip, and I always like fading teams on their first game back from an extended trip.  Plus, they’ll be playing their 3rd game in four days here while dealing with family obligations at home Thursday.  The Wizards come in on two days’ rest. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Washington) - after allowing 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that scored 120 points or more last game are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Wizards Friday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio Spurs -2.5 

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after going just 2-6 in their last eight games overall.  They are 2-5 in their last seven games, and all five losses came on the road.  They actually beat Houston 96-89 as 3.5-point dogs and Golden State 104-92 as 3-point favorites in their two home games during this stretch.  They are clearly undervalued right now. 

Memphis is overvalued after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Now they’re only catching 2.5 points on the road to the Spurs here.  That’s not enough when you consider the Spurs are 47-8 SU in their last 55 home meetings with the Grizzlies, including 7-0 in the last seven in the Alamo City. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Antonio) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games.  Take the Spurs Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets -3 

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS.  Their improvement has come on offense, where they are scoring 115.0 points per game and outscoring the opposition by 4.6 points per game on the season.  Kemba Walker is playing at an MVP level, scoring a combined 103 points in the last two games. 

The Pacers come in overvalued off their 121-94 win over Utah, their third straight win.  But all three wins came at home, and the Pacers haven’t played nearly as well on the road.  Plus, they could be without their two most talented players in Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, who are both listed as questionable tonight. 

Plays on favorites (Charlotte) - after a home games here both teams scored 100 or more points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Pacers.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8 

This is certainly a ‘buy low’ situation on the New York Knicks.  They have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  So now they are catching a whopping 8 points at home to the Portland Trail Blazers, and I simply believe it’s too much tonight. 

Four of those five losses came on the road, and the other was the 2nd of a back-to-back situation at home to Orlando.  So the schedule is the biggest reason for their recent struggles.  I look for the Knicks to be highly motivated for a win at home tonight in a much better situation here with yesterday off. 

The Blazers are in a much more difficult situation here.  They will be playing their fourth straight road game.  They lost the first two games on this trip by 9 to the Lakers and by 16 to the Timberwolves before beating the hapless Wizards last time out. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Knicks Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are fully healthy now and playing some great basketball.  They have won four of their last six coming in, including an impressive 98-86 win at Boston as 4-point dogs last time out.  They only patch of this season they struggled was when they were playing without leading scorer Donovan Mitchell. 

Speaking of leading scorers, the Indiana Pacers will be without their tonight in Victor Oladipo.  He is the one player they cannot afford to lose as he averages 21.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 4.7 APG.  He is the heart and soul of this team.  Without him they are a below-average squad that the Jazz should handle. 

The Jazz are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 70% of their games.  The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Roll with the Jazz Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat -1 

The Miami Heat had yesterday off and now host the Lakers.  They should be more than 1-point favorites over the Lakers in this matchup considering the Lakers are on the 2nd of a back-to-back. 

The Lakers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 15-6 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the Lakers.  Bet the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +12.5 

The Houston Rockets come into this game overvalued after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are also in a massive letdown spot here off their win over the defending champion Golden State Warriors on Thursday, a game they clearly had circled. 

The Rockets won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight.  The Kings played yesterday in a 104-112 loss to the Grizzlies, but this back-to-back situation isn’t so bad for them.   

That’s because they had three days off prior to that Memphis game.  This is a very young, deep team that will have plenty of energy left in the tank to give the Rockets a run for their money tonight. 

The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest.  The Kings are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets.  Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  Roll with the Kings Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Lakers -4 

The Lakers are finally starting to play up to their potential.  They have gone 4-0 in their last four games overall.  They are only laying 4 points here to the Orlando Magic, and I think we’re getting a discount today. 

The Lakers are well-rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Lakers are coming off a 126-117 win over Portland on Wednesday.  Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game. 

The Magic are coming off an upset win over the 76ers.  The Magic are just 19-44 ATS in their last 63 games following a win.  Orlando is also just 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games when paying on two days’ rest.  Take the Lakers Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2 

The Charlotte Hornets will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after their worst loss of the season, an 89-113 setback at Cleveland as 8.5-point favorites.  They’ve had three days off since that loss on Tuesday to get ready for this game tonight. 

Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days here.  They won a hard-fought battle with the Jazz 113-107 last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Hornets.  This is a dream spot for Charlotte. 

Adding fuel to the fire for the Hornets is the fact that they’ve already lost their first two meetings with the 76ers by a combined 3 points.  So they’ll be revenge-minded here. 

Charlotte is a perfect 13-0 ATS vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  The Hornets are winning by 10.5 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Hornets Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7 

Both the Sacramento Kings (8-6) and Memphis Grizzlies (8-5) have been two of the surprise teams in the NBA this season.  The Grizzlies are winning with defense, while the Kings are winning with offense. 

The Kings are averaging 114.5 points per game this season, way up from last year, and it’s largely due to the improvement of point guard De’Aron Fox in his second season.  The Kings are shooting 48.2% as a team as they have gotten out in transition more and gotten easier buckets.   

The Kings come in rested as they have had the last three days off, so they’ll be ready to go tonight.  And Sacramento is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on three or more days’ rest. 

I think this is a precarious spot for the Grizzlies.  They just pulled off a huge 116-113 upset at Milwaukee on Wednesday as 9.5-point underdogs.  They could be in line for a letdown here against the Kings, who won 97-92 in their first meeting this season back on October 24th. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games playing a team with a winning record and 65-30 (68.4%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Kings Friday.

15* Raptors/Celtics ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Boston -1.5 

The Boston Celtics are undervalued right now due to their lackluster 8-6 start that has seen them go 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They should be bigger than 1.5-point home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight. 

The Celtics came through with one of their best performances of the season last time out.  They crushed the Bulls 111-82 at home.  And now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They’ll be motivated to prove to the Raptors that they are the best team in the East. 

The Raptors opened 12-1 this season.  But they were overvalued at that point, and have since lost two straight at home to the Pelicans by 16 and the Pistons by 2.  They were nearly double-digit favorites in both those games.  They have some injury concerns right now that aren’t helping, either. 

The Celtics are 9-0 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons.  Boston is 12-3 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last two years.  The Celtics are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Celtics Friday. 

15* Warriors/Rockets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Houston -1.5 

The Houston Rockets have had this game circled on their calendars ever since losing in Game 7 to the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night at home to get revenge on the Warriors. 

The Rockets may have won that series if Chris Paul didn’t miss the last two games with an injury, both resulting in Houston losses.  And the Rockets are hitting their stride right now.  They have won their last two games over the Pacers by 12 and the Nuggets by 10 and they are heating up from the field.  It’s probably no coincidence that they have started to play well since deciding to part ways with Carmelo Anthony. 

Conversely, the Warriors are faltering right now, and there’s tension in the locker room after Draymond Green got into it with Kevin Durant a few nights back.  They lost in that game in overtime to the Clippers, and then were sluggish on the second of a back-to-back in a 7-point win over the lowly Hawks.  Stephen Curry remains out and is questionable to return tonight.  And the Warriors will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Rockets Thursday.

20* Blazers/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers are finally starting to gel as a team.  They have reeled off three straight victories coming into this game with the Portland Trail Blazers.  And now they’ve had two days off since last playing on Sunday, so they’ll be rested and ready to go at home tonight. 

The Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after opening the season 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS.  They’ve been one of the best covering teams in the league.  But that is largely due to a home-heavy schedule, and they have handled their business at home this year. 

In fact, the Blazers have played nine of their first 13 games at home.  They have only played four times on the road.  Two of those home games were with the Lakers.  They won the first meeting but lost the second.  And now the Lakers get their shot at the Blazers at home this time around. 

The Lakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +9.5 

This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks and ‘sell high’ on the Thunder tonight.  The Thunder are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall coming in. 

But Russell Westbrook was a big part of that streak.  And now Westbrook is out with an ankle injury.  The Thunder have been able to win three of four without him, but two of those wins were against the Suns and Cavs, two of the worst teams in the NBA.  They’ll be fortunate to win this game, let alone win it by double-digits, which is what it’s going to take to cover this massive 9.5-point spread. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Knicks, who are coming off their worst performance of the season.  They lost 89-115 at home to the Magic on Sunday, but now will be rested and ready to go with two days off in between games.  And that loss is forgivable when you consider they were coming off a tough loss in Toronto the night before and playing the second of a back-to-back.  They’ll be looking to make amends tonight. 

Oklahoma City is 8-23 ATS after having won two of its last three games over the past two seasons.  New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  The Thunder are 30-45 ATS in their last 75 games as a favorite.  Roll with the Knicks Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5 

The Brooklyn Nets were one of my favorite teams to back coming into the season and through the early part of the season.  But they just lost their best player in Caris LeVert to a dislocated foot, and that’s a huge blow to the team as he was one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  He was their best playmaker and leading scorer. 

I think the Miami Heat will be playing with an edge tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in, and they’ll be looking to take out hotter frustration on the Nets tonight.  They are as healthy as they’ve been all season and should put forth a big effort here. 

This is the Nets’ first home game back from a long four-game road trip.  I always like fading teams on their first home game back from a long trip because there are distractions at home they have to deal with.  And the Nets are certainly still feeling the loss of LeVert as the life has been sucked out of the franchise now.  It could linger for a few games before they recover. 

The Heat are 11-2 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Nets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Heat Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +6.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight after the trade for Jimmy Butler.  It’s going to take some time for Butler to gel with his new team, and the 76ers will take a step back before they take a step forward with him, especially with all of these expectations from oddsmakers now. 

The Magic have quietly gone 4-2 in their last six games overall.  They won 117-110 in San Antonio and 115-89 in New York, while also beating the Wizards 117-108 and the Cavs 102-100 at home.  They are fully healthy and playing some solid basketball right now. 

The Magic are more than capable of beating the 76ers, let alone staying within 6.5 points here.  They showed that in their first meeting with the 76ers in a 115-116 road loss as 12.5-point underdogs.  They’ll now be out revenge from that defeat back on October 20th.  The 76ers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. 

Plays on home teams (Orland) - after two straight games where they attempted 10-plus less free throws than their opponent against an opponent that is off a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Magic Wednesday. 

15* Hawks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +13 

The Golden State Warriors are just not the same team without Steph Curry.  They are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games without him with their only win coming at home against the Brooklyn Nets.  And they did themselves no favors by erasing a huge deficit last night to the Clippers. 

Indeed, the Warriors rallied from double-digits down to force overtime against the Clippers last night, only to lose 116-121 in the extra session.  And now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here, so they won’t have much left in the tank for the Atlanta Hawks tonight. 

The Hawks went on the road and showed they could play with a good team from the Western Conference last time out, only losing 106-107 to the Lakers as 11-point underdogs.  And now they had yesterday off and will be rested and ready to take their shot at the short-handed, tired defending champs.  I know we’ll get a big effort from the Hawks tonight, but I question what kind of effort we’ll get from the Warriors without Curry. 

The Hawks have played the Warriors very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 12 points or less.  The Hawks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games coming in.  The Warriors are 1-12 ATS in Tuesday games over the last two seasons.  Take the Hawks Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are out for revenge tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.  They have already lost twice at home to the Grizzlies this season, but one of those was without Donovan Mitchell.  It’s clear that the Jazz are going to want this game a lot more than Memphis will tonight. 

All has been good with the Grizzlies since Mitchell returned from injury.  They have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS since his return, beating the Mavs by 15 at home and the Celtics by 8 at home.  And they should be able to go on the road in this spot now that they are fully healthy and beat the Grizzlies by 4-plus points. 

The Grizzlies are the ones with the injury problems right now.  JayMychal Green and Chandler Parsons have been out for a while, but now Omri Casspi and Dillon Brooks are also out.  They are short-handed, which will make it tough for them to compete with the Jazz, who are one of the best teams in the NBA att full strength. 

Memphis is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games off two consecutive home games.  Utah is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Jazz are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - revenge a loss where opponent score 100 or more points against opponent that’s off a home win scoring 110 or more are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Jazz Monday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +9 

The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as 9-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  This is the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Suns after losing 10 of their last 11 games coming in.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them. 

It’s also the perfect ‘sell high’ opportunity on the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But almost all of that run came with Russell Westbrook healthy and leading this team.  That’s not the case any longer. 

The Thunder were able to win their first two games without Westbrook, beating the Cavs on the road and the Rockets at home.  But it caught up with them last time out in a 96-111 road loss at Dallas.  Teams can usually play well for one or two games without their stars, but it doesn’t last.  The Thunder are just an average to below average team in this league without Westbrook. 

The Thunder are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Monday games.  Oklahoma City is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Phoenix is 78-50 ATS in its last 128 games off a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The Thunder are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games after having won two of their last three coming in.  Bet the Suns Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2 

The Miami Heat will be highly motivated for a win Monday night.  They have lost two straight to Indiana and Washington coming in.  And they also want revenge on the Philadelphia 76ers after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them last year. 

But these aren’t the same 76ers.  They traded away Dario Saric and Robert Covington for Jimmy Butler.  And Butler isn’t even going to play tonight.  So they are short-handed tonight, and I don’t think they can beat the Heat in their current state. 

Philadelphia is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 road games after two straight games committing 7-plus turnovers more than their opponents.  The 76ers are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.9 points per game in the process. 

Miami is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Heat are 9-0 ATS vs. good foul drawing teams who shoot 27 or more free throws per game over the last three years.  The 76ers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  Take the Heat Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1.5 

The Knicks are better than their 4-9 record, while the Magic are worse than their 5-7 record thus far.  I think we are getting value on the Knicks here as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Magic because of the perception that the Magic or better.  But that’s not the case. 

Let’s look at point differential.  The Magic are getting outscored by 7.1 points per game this season, while the Knicks are only getting outscored by 3.6 points per game.  And the Magic have played a home-heavy schedule with eight of their first 12 games at home.  The Knicks have played seven of their 13 on the highway. 

The Magic are 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 18-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 18-43-1 ATS in their last 61 games following a win.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7.5 

The Brooklyn Nets have reeled off three straight impressive victories and still aren’t getting the respect they deserve.  They won 122-97 at home over the 76ers as 4-point dogs, 104-82 at Phoenix as 2-point favorites, and 112-110 at Denver as 8.5-point dogs. 

I realize this is the second of a back-to-back for the Nets, but they had two days off prior to that Denver game, so they won’t be as tired as most teams would.  Plus, the Nets are arguably the deepest team in the league, so they are affected much less by these back-to-backs than most teams. 

The Warriors are in a worse situation.  They are going to be playing without two of the Big Four today.  Stephen Curry will miss significant time after leaving last game with a groin strain.  And Draymond Green is also out with a foot injury.  Not to mention, both Shaun Livingston and DeMarcus Cousins are out.  The Warriors don’t even have a point guard right now. 

The Nets have played the Warriors very tough of late, going 4-0 ATS in their four meetings over the past few seasons, including their 114-120 home loss at 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Golden State.  I like the fact that they are out for revenge here as well. 

The Nets are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 road games, including 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Nets Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they had to go to overtime to beat the Hornets 133-132 at home last night.  It’s safe to say they won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies here. 

The Grizzlies are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  It’s amazing what they are capable of when Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are both healthy and on the floor at the same time.  The Grizzlies are 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS this season. 

The Grizzlies have been at their best at home, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 12.3 points per game on average.  They have some of the best home fans in the NBA.  Meanwhile, the 76ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 11.7 points per game. 

The Grizzlies have owned this series as well, going 10-1 SU in their last 11 meetings with the 76ers.  Enough said.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a letdown tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are coming off a huge 134-111 road victory at Golden State.  I always like fading teams after they play the Warriors, especially after they beat the Warriors.  They always seem to have a letdown the next game. 

And it’s certainly worth noting those weren’t the real Warriors.  Stephen Curry got injured early and was forced to leave the game.  And they were already playing without Draymond Green.  Without those two, the Warriors are just an average team in this league. 

The Clippers are a team that has impressed me thus far.  They are 6-5 SU & 6-5 ATS this season and have been flying under the radar.  They are outscoring their opponents by 4.8 points per game on the season, and Doc Rivers has gotten the most out of this team.  They are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here so should be sitting on a big effort with the Bucks coming to town. 

The Clippers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.6 points per game.  The Bucks are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Milwaukee is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Clippers won both meetings last season with the Bucks.  Take the Clippers Saturday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +10 

The Brooklyn Nets just don’t get the respect they deserve in the betting markets.  They are in the third year of head coach Kenny Atkinson, and they’ve improved every season.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and they should get even deeper now with the healthy return of DeMarre Carroll from an ankle injury tonight.  He hasn’t played yet this season. 

The Nets are off to a 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS start this season.  Only two of those six losses came by double-digits, so they have basically been competitive in every game.  And given how well they’ve played in their last two games, there’s no way they should be double-digit dogs tonight.  They beat Philadelphia 122-97 as 4-point home dogs and won 104-82 at Phoenix as 2-point road favorites.  And now they’ve had two days’ rest since that win over the Suns to get ready for the Nuggets. 

Denver is clearly overvalued now after a 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS start to the season.  The Nuggets are starting to get a lot of love from the betting public due to this start.  This is only the third time they will be a double-digit favorite this season, and the other two were against the Suns and Kings at home.  They could be looking ahead to huge showdowns with the Bucks and Rockets up next. 

The Nets are 27-14 ATS as road underdogs over the last two seasons.  Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in road games off a road win over the last two years.  The Nets are 9-0 ATS after allowing 90 points or less last game over the past three seasons.  Brooklyn is 10-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  Take the Nets Friday. 

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT No-Brainer on Houston -3.5 

It’s no surprise the Houston Rockets have been playing winning basketball since James Harden returned to the lineup.  Having a healthy Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Cappella in the lineup has meant everything to this team.  They’ve been dominant with all three healthy, but just average with one or more of them missing. 

The Rockets have reeled off three straight wins, the last two since Harden returned, and he should be even more healthy now.  That’s especially the case since the Rockets have had two days’ rest coming into this game tonight having last played on Monday. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in trouble.  They just lost Russell Westbrook to an ankle injury.  They were able to get by the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers last night without him, but now they’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, so they will be tired.  And they’re taking a huge step up in class here.  They have no chance of beating the Rockets without Westbrook. 

Houston is 18-7 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 4-1 SU on the road this season, playing their best basketball away from home.  Plus, Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine trips to Oklahoma City.  Take the Rockets Thursday. 

20* T’Wolves/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5 

The Lakers are rested and ready to go.  They had two days off since a home loss to Toronto on Sunday and will certainly be looking to put their best foot forward tonight.  That’s especially the case with revenge in mind following a 120-124 loss in Minnesota on October 29th just over a week ago. 

The Timberwolves are in a tough spot here.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and played the Clippers Monday in Los Angeles.  That means they have been staying in Los Angeles, which is always a huge distraction for any team.  It’s likely they went out and partied the last two nights if given the chance. 

The Timberwolves are just a team I do not trust.  They are 4-7 SU & 4-7 ATS this season, including 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS on the road, getting outscored by 12.2 points per game on the highway.  The Jimmy Butler trade rumors certainly have been a distraction for this team, and Butler continues to rest even though he probably doesn’t need it.  And they are missing starting PG Jeff Teague and don’t have an ample replacement. 

The Timberwolves are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 road games dating back to last season.  The Lakers will get their revenge tonight from that loss just over a week ago.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +8 

The love for the Toronto Raptors in the betting markets is getting out of hand.  They have become a big public team now with a 10-1 record on the season.  But with that record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be tough to live up to moving forward. 

The Raptors are coming off back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Jazz on the road.  They will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  It’s uncertain if Kawhi Leonard will return to the lineup tonight, and they are missing key reserve Norman Powell as well.  I don’t think they’ll be as motivated to face the Kings as they were the Lakers and Jazz, and this is clearly a letdown spot for them. 

Sacramento, on the other hand, is getting no respect for its 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS start this season.  The Kings have been one of the biggest surprises in the league to this point, yet nobody is talking about them.  That’s why were are getting some extra value here with the Kings as 8-point home dogs to the Raptors tonight.  Plus, this will be just the 2nd game in 6 days for the Kings, so they’re rested and ready to go. 

Toronto is 44-72 ATS in its last 116 games following four or more consecutive wins.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 65-27 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The Raptors are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 trips to Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +9.5 

I was on the Mavericks last night and they came through with a 119-100 home victory over the Washington Wizards.  Part of the reason I was on them was because they had three days’ rest coming in.  So that will soften the blow on this back-to-back situation as they’ll still be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They should have plenty left in the tank for the Utah Jazz tonight. 

It’s shocking to see the Jazz as 9.5-point favorites tonight with the way they are playing.  This line is an overreaction from the news that Donovan Mitchell is expected to return from injury.  He won’t be 100%, and he’ll likely be on a minutes restriction.  The Jazz are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with three double-digit losses and three upset losses as favorites. 

The Mavs have gone on the road and played great in this role of road underdog already this season.  They only lost by 9 at Toronto as 11-point dogs, by 5 in overtime at San Antonio as 7-point dogs, and by 1 at the Lakers as 7.5-point dogs.  Those are their last three road games coming in, and those are results that make be believe they are the right side here as 9.5-point dogs to the Jazz. 

Dallas is 27-15 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Mavs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Utah is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Mavs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Mavericks Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2 

The New York Knicks have impressed me with how competitive they’ve been in spite of their 3-8 record.  They are the better team in this matchup despite having a similar record to the Hawks (3-7).  And I’ll gladly lay only two points with them on the road here tonight. 

Four of New York’s eight losses have come by 6 points or less, including three by 2 points or fewer.  They are only getting outscored by 3.3 points per game on the season, which you would expect better than a 3-8 record with that margin.  Tim Hardaway has taken his game to the next level this season, and the Knicks are getting big contributions from Enes Kanter, Damyean Dotson, Alonzo Trier and Mario Hezonja.  And prized rookie Kevin Knox is expected to be back in the lineup tonight. 

The Hawks are worse than their 3-7 record would even indicate.  They are getting outscored by 9.6 points per game on the season.  They are in complete rebuilding mode.  And this is a tough spot for them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing in Charlotte last night. 

The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on zero rest.  Atlanta is 4-16 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Knicks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 trips to Atlanta.  Take the Knicks Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks +1.5 

Both the Dallas Mavericks and Washington Wizards have opened 2-7 this season.  However, I’ve been a lot more impressed with the Mavericks than the Wizards to this point, and I don’t think they should be home dogs because of it. 

The Mavericks are getting outscored by 6.0 points per game while the Wizards are getting outscored by 9.4 points per game on the season.  The Wizards don’t play any defense, allowing opponents to score 120.7 points per game on 47.5% shooting.  The Mavericks have been solid offensively at 110.8 points per game on 45.3% shooting. 

The Wizards are just 1-4 on the road this season with their only win coming by a single point.  They are getting outscored by 13.8 points per game on the road this year.  The Mavericks are 2-2 at home, scoring 116.2 points per game and only getting outscored by 2.8 points per game. 

The Mavericks simply own the Wizards.  Dallas is 15-1 SU in its last 16 meetings with Washington.  Yet the Mavericks are the underdogs in this matchup.  They won by 14 on the road and by 23 at home in their two meetings last season.  Roll with the Mavericks Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Nuggets OVER 207.5 

This is a very low total tonight.  I think there’s value with the OVER between the Celtics and Nuggets in this matchup.  I think the fact that the Nuggets have gone under the total in four straight is keeping this total lower than it should be. 

A quick look at the series history between these teams and it’s easy to see there’s value with the OVER.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Nuggets and Celtics have seen 214 or more combined points.  They’ve averaged 224.5 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is 17 points more than this 207.5-point total. 

The OVER is 15-4 in Nuggets last 19 games vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The OVER is 4-1 in Celtics last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Denver is 49-29 to the OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have really turned the corner since their 0-4 start.  They have won four straight since, including a 134-111 win at Washington last time out on Friday.  That means they’ve had two days’ rest over the weekend to get ready to face the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. 

The Pelicans have gone the other direction.  They got out to a fast start at 4-0, but have since lost five straight.  And they’ve rarely been competitive in these five losses, losing four times by double-digits.  They are a banged-up team and a tired team right now as this will be their 5th straight road game, and their 7th game in 11 days. 

The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Oklahoma City is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with New Orleans.  The Pelicans are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  Take the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +10 

The Sacramento Kings are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are getting treated like they are the Kings from year’s past here catching double-digits to the Milwaukee Bucks today.  We’ll take advantage and back them until they are priced correctly. 

The Kings are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their nine games this season.  They have won and covered five straight, which includes three straight road victories by 10, 8 and 31 points.  They have a bunch of young talent that they’ve stockpiled in the past few drafts and it’s finally starting to pay off for this franchise. 

The Bucks are in a precarious spot here.  They opened the season 7-0 and then lost their first game last time out to the Celtics, who also beat them in the playoffs last year.  I think they will suffer a ‘hangover’ effect here off that huge game and off their first loss of the season.  I always like fading teams who are coming off a loss following a long winning streak because it’s like the wind is lifted from underneath their sails. 

Milwaukee is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are only winning by 1.9 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Kings Sunday. 

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets -4 

The Denver Nuggets are off to a 7-1 start this season.  They are on a mission early to give themselves a cushion after missing out on the playoffs with an overtime loss to the Timberwolves in the final game of the regular season last year. 

The Utah Jazz are in a tough spot here Saturday.  They are coming off a 100-110 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies last night.  So they’ll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days tonight. 

Making matters worse for the Jazz is the injury situation.  Donovan Mitchell sat out last night with a hamstring injury, and Alec Burks was out with a hand injury.  It’s unlikely that they get Mitchell back tonight as he’s listed as questionable.  And they just aren’t the same team without him.  If he does play he’ll be much less than 100%. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Nuggets have won four straight home meetings with the Jazz by 8, 24, 10 and 14 points, respectively.  That’s an average win by 14 points per game.  Take the Nuggets Saturday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Celtics -3 

The Boston Celtics have reeled off four straight wins while covering the spread in three of them.  They will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days tonight so they’ll be fresh and ready to go.  Look for a big effort from them here against the Indiana Pacers. 

The Pacers are far from fresh.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They were fortunate to win their last two games, pulling away late to beat the Knicks 107-101, and barely escaping with a 107-105 win as 7-point favorites in Chicago last night.  They’ll get it handed to them here by the Celtics. 

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series of late.  The road team is actually 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Celtics are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Indiana. 

The Celtics are 17-4 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Boston is 42-17 ATS in its last 59 Saturday games.  Bet the Celtics Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -6 

The Dallas Mavericks will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight over the New York Knicks.  The Mavericks have to feel snake bitten because they’ve lost five straight coming in, but all five were by dsingle-digits, and four of them were on the road. 

The Mavericks took the Spurs to overtime and lost on a last-second free throw by Lebron James on the road at the Lakers in their last two games.  But the Mavs are 2-1 at home this season and will be glad to be back at home against arguably the worst team they’ve faced yet this season in the Knicks. 

The Knicks are just 2-6 on the season as well.  Their two wins have come against the Hawks and Nets, and both were at home.  Those are two of the worst teams in the NBA.  I don’t give them much of a chance of even being competitive against a motivated Mavericks team here on the road tonight. 

Dallas has won 17 of its last 21 home meetings with New York.  The Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. Western Conference opponents.  New York is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the Mavericks Friday. 

20* Thunder/Wizards ESPN No-Brainer on Washington -2.5 

The Washington Wizards will be highly motivated for a victory Friday night.  They sit at just 1-6 on the season and in need of a victory.  They have played five of their first seven games on the road, and their two home games resulted in losses by a combined 5 points to Toronto and Miami. 

But the Wizards are in a great situational spot here.  They come in on two days’ rest having last played in Memphis on Tuesday.  So they will be fresh and ready to go.  I think we get the best effort of the season from the Wizards tonight because of it. 

Conversely, this is an awful spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They Thunder will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They used a lot of energy erasing a double-digit deficit in the second half last night to beat the Bobcats 111-107.  They won’t have much left in the tank come the second half in this one. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Wizards are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home meetings with the Thunder.  The Thunder are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. 

Plays on any team (Washington) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 70-29 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Wizards Friday. 

15* Pelicans/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -4 

I love the situation for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They had yesterday off and will be highly motivated for revenge on the Pelicans after getting swept by them in the playoffs last year.  Look for them to step up in a big way tonight and get a win and cover. 

They catch the Pelicans in a great spot, too.  New Orleans will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days.  And they are coming off a loss to the Warriors last night, so they won’t be nearly as motivated to play the Pelicans, a team they swept in the playoffs. 

It’s almost always a good move to fade a team after they play the defending champs.  But the Pelicans also have a ton of injury concerns right now with Elfrid Payton and Darius Miller questionable after sitting out last night, and Anthony Davis playing through injury last night.  It’s no surprise that the Pelicans have lost three straight coming in by a combined 36 points due to their injury situation. 

The Blazers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Thursday games.  Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Blazers are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 home games overall.  Portland is 41-19-4 ATS in its last 64 games following a win.  Roll with the Blazers Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2 

The Pistons will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after a hard-fought 105-108 loss in Boston last night.  I expect a poor showing from them tonight in Brooklyn against a Nets team that had yesterday off and will be highly motivated for a victory. 

The Nets have lost three straight to fall to 2-5 this season.  But they are better than their record.  Three of their losses came by 2, 3 and 6 points at New Orleans, at Detroit and vs. Golden State, respectively.  So they also want revenge from their 100-103 loss at Detroit as 6-point dogs in the opener. 

The Pistons are overrated due to their 4-2 start this season.  But their four wins came against the Nets, Bulls, 76ers, and Cavs with three of those at home.  They have lost to the best team the’ve faced in the Celtics twice for their two defeats.  And this Brooklyn team has already made me a lot of money and will continue to do so this season because they are way underrated. 

The Pistons are 5-19 ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Brooklyn is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight home meetings with the Pistons.  Bet the Nets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder should be highly motivated for a win tonight after a 1-4 start to the season.  Getting them as only 2-point home favorites over the Clippers just shows how much they’ve been downgraded in everyone’s power rankings.  This is the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Thunder. 

It’s also a great ‘sell high’ spot for the Clippers.  They are off to a 4-2 start this season and coming off back-to-back blowout victories over the Rockets and Wizards.  I think they’ll fail to meet the lofty expectations they have now earned in the eyes of the oddsmakers tonight. 

The Thunder also want revenge from a 92-108 road loss to the Clippers back on October 19th less than two weeks ago.  But Russell Westbrook sat out that game due to injury, and that injury is a big reason for their early struggles.  Westbrook is back healthy now and ready to help get this thing turned around in OKC. 

The Thunder are 72-46 ATS in their last 118 games after having lost three of their last four games coming in.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Oklahoma City. 

Plays on favorites (OKC) - after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points against an opponent that’s coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Celtics UNDER 210 

This is one of my favorite situations to bet an UNDER.  The Celtics and Pistons just played each other in Detroit on October 27th.  They combined for just 198 points in a 109-89 road win for Boston.  And now this total has been set at 210 points for the rematch just a few days later, and I think there’s value with the UNDER. 

The reason these situations are so good is because both teams are familiar with each other having just played.  And both teams have had two days off since that game, so all they’ve been doing is preparing for each other in practice.  And that certainly favors the defenses. 

Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Celtics are holding opponents to just 96.3 points per game on 40.8% shooting.  But they have yet to get their offense going, averaging just 101.5 points per game on 41.4% shooting.  They will control this game playing at home. 

The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 208 or fewer points in four of the five.  Detroit is 14-3 UNDER in a road game where the total is 200 to 210 over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 55-23-3 in Pistons last 81 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Celtics last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Celtics last six home games. 

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 210 (Boston) - after allowing 90 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more in five straight games are 30-7 (81.1%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Timberwolves UNDER 240.5 

This total has gotten out of hand tonight.  I think there’s value backing the UNDER because of it.  This total is inflated because the Lakers have their guys back from suspension.  But they aren’t going to be this poor defensively all season because Lebron James simply won’t stand for it. 

Andrew Wiggins has missed the last two games for the Timberwolves and is questionable to return from a quad injury tonight.  And Minnesota isn’t getting much done on offense right now.  They are averaging just 100.3 points per game in their last three games coming in. 

The Lakers and Timberwolves have combined for 230 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of the last eight meetings.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 240.5-point total set.  They have averaged 219.8 combined points per game in their last eight meetings, which is roughly 21 points less than this total. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or more in a game involving two bad teams who win 25% to 40% of their games are 58-24 (70.7%) since 1996.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Timberwolves last seven games when playing on two days’ rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +11.5 

The Golden State Warriors are in a very tough early scheduling spot here.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days tonight.  Players aren’t as in shape early in the season as they are later in the year, so this tough early scheduling spots have more of an impact. 

I don’t think we see a very good effort from the Warriors tonight as a result.  Their four stars in Stepen Curry (36:16), Klay Thompson (33:35), Kevin Durant (39:08) and Draymond Green (36:19) all played big minutes against the Nets last night.  Steve Kerr will surely limit their minutes tonight if possible, and that means more minutes for what is one of the worst benches in the league. 

The Bulls had yesterday off and should be fresh and ready to go.  They will be laying it all on the line with the defending champion Warriors coming to town.  I know the Bulls have some injury issues right now, but that didn’t stop them from winning two of their last three games in upset fashion, including a 97-85 win in Atlanta as 5.5-point dogs on Saturday.  Zach LaVine and Jabari Parker have really taken on bigger roles and are excelling in them. 

Chicago is 12-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 11-22 ATS off three or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit win.  The home team is 23-8-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings. 

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Golden State) - playing on back-to-back days, in the first half of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS since 1996.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Golden State) - a team that had a winning record last season, off four or more consecutive wins are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1996.  The Warriors are simply overvalued right now given the spot and situation.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets +10.5 

The Nets should be a pretty big money maker this season.  They have improved greatly each season in the three years under Kenny Atkinson and this year should be no different.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and have been stockpiling talent through the draft.  I like what I’ve seen from this team thus far. 

The Nets are just 2-3 but two of their losses came by a combined 5 points on the road to Detroit (100-103) and at previously unbeaten New Orleans (115-117).  They have played four of their first five games on the road this season with their lone home game resulting in a win over the Knicks. 

The Warriors are overvalued after covering three straight with blowout wins over the Suns, Wizards and Knicks.  They will get some resistance from the Nets here.  And I don’t think they will be ‘all in’ for this game knowing that they play a back-to-back with a road game at Chicago tomorrow. 

The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Warriors, including 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Brooklyn is 14-3 ATS vs. up-tempo teams who average 88 or more shots per game over the last three seasons.  They are actually winning these games outright by 6.7 points per game on average.  The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Golden State) - an explosive offensive team that scores 103 or more points per game against an opponent that’s off a loss by 6 points or less are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Nets Sunday.