20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blazers/Mavericks OVER 236

Dallas OVERS are the gifts that keep on giving, and we'll continue to back them until the books set them high enough.  This 236-point total is not high enough Sunday to scare as away when you look at recent performances in Mavericks game.

The OVER is 6-0 in Dallas' last six games overall.  They have combined for 238, 263, 266, 249, 235 and 273 points in those six games with none of them going to overtime.  That's an average of 254 combined points per game, which is still 18 points higher than this 236-point total.

The Mavericks are becoming one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA, but they still play little defense.  The Blazers also like to play at a fast pace and play little defense.  The OVER is 5-1 in Blazers last six games overall with combined scores of 240 or higher in four of their last five.  None of those games went to OT, either.

The OVER is 5-0 in Blazers last five games as underdogs.  The OVER is 10-1 in Mavericks last 11 games as a favorite.  The OVER is 41-20 in Mavericks last 61 home games.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series with combined scores of 265, 258, 232, 240 and 244 points.  None of those went to OT, either.  That's an average of 247.8 combined points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Timberwolves/Raptors OVER 229

The OVER is 8-0 in Raptors last eight games overall.  They have combined for 231 or more points with their opponents in six of those eight games.  And this 229-point total is too low Sunday.

The Timberwolves won't be afraid to go into a shootout with them.  The OVER is 4-0 in Timberwolves last four games with combined scores of 231 or more points in all four of those games.  And Minnesota just got Karl-Anthony Towns back from injury to make them an even more dynamic offensive team.

The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in this series.  The OVER is 11-0 in Timberwolves last 11 road games off two or more consecutive overs.  Toronto is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games vs. terrible teams that are outscored by 6 or more points per game.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks ML +105

The New York Knicks are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only two losses came to the defending Eastern Conference champion Heat by a combined 8 points.  And that's a Heat team that is getting healthy and playing better now.

The three wins came on the road over the Bulls by 4, at home over the Blazers by 11 and then last night on the road at Washington by 18.  So while this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back situation, it won't impact the Knicks too badly.  That's because they had two days off prior to beating Washington.  And because it was a blowout, the Knicks only had one player play more than 25 minutes.  So they should still be fresh and this is a deep team anyway.

Now the Knicks take on a Rockets team that is in a world of hurt right now in the injury department.  The Rockets are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with the four losses coming by an average of 16.5 points per game.  This skid coincided with losing their best player in Christian Wood to injury.  And now they lost Victor Oladipo and PJ Tucker to injury in their last game.  Wood and Oladipo will both be out, and Tucker didn't practice Friday and is questionable.

The Rockets are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a loss.  Houston is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games playing on one days' rest.  New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Saturday games.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Knicks on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on Memphis +8

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Lakers off six straight victories.  But only one of those wins came by more than 8 points, and three straight have come in overtime.  I think this is a tired team right now due to those OT games, and there's a good chance they won't get back Anthony Davis tonight.

The Lakers just have a way of playing to the level of their competition.  They only beat the Pistons by 6 as 14-point favorites in OT, the Thunder by 7 as 9.5-point favorites in OT and the Thunder by 1 as 12-point favorites in OT in their last three games, which have all come at home.

The Grizzlies will give the Lakers a run for their money tonight.  Memphis is 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  They are coming off a 16-point home win over Charlotte and will be giving a big effort here against the defending champs.  That's especially the case since they want revenge from two earlier home losses to the Lakers this season, including a 2-point loss in their last meeting.

The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last five games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

15* Pelicans/Mavericks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 233.5

I've been riding this Dallas OVER train and I'm not stopping tonight.  The OVER is 5-0 in Mavericks last five games overall with combined scores of 238, 263, 266, 249 and 235 points.  None of those games went to overtime, either.  That's an average of 250.2 combined points per game, so we are still getting roughly 17 points of value on this OVER tonight.

The Mavericks are getting back to being the efficient offense that actually set records in the NBA last year.  They have scored 116 or more points in five straight games.  But they just cannot get stops as they rank 27th in defensive efficiency this season.

The Pelicans haven't been much better on that end, ranking 26th in defensive efficiency.  But New Orleans is really tearing it up on offense while scoring 109 or more points in 11 straight games coming in.  The OVER is 16-3-1 in Pelicans last 20 games overall. 

The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Dallas.  The Pelicans are 11-1 OVER in their last 12 games after a combined score of 225 points or more.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* 76ers/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia -5.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their lone loss during this stretch came when they took the Blazers lightly as 10-point home favorites.  They lost that game 105-121.

Now it's revenge time for the 76ers, who won't be taking them lightly this time around.  That was also the 2nd of a back-to-back for the 76ers, so it was clearly a bad spot for them.  But now they are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and will give a big effort tonight.

I just can't trust the Blazers with all they are missing.  CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic remain out for the Blazers.  They just aren't the same team without McCollum, and they are a terrible defensive team.  And that's where the advantage lies with the 76ers, who are 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Blazers are 28th.  Only the Wizards and Kings have been worse than the Blazers.

Philadelphia is 11-1 ATS after having won two of its last three games this season.  The 76ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Blazers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Portland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with the 76ers Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3

The Boston Celtics will be highly motivated for a victory tonight off two straight road losses to two of the best teams in the Western Conference in Phoenix and Utah.  In fact, they just played five straight road games, so they will be very happy to be back home tonight.

A big reason for the recent struggles for the Celtics is due to injuries.  But they are finally getting healthy as Jaylen Brown just returned to the lineup and scored 33 points against Utah.  And having both Tatum and Brown on the floor at the same time is when they are at their best.  The only key player they are missing now is Marcus Smart.

I'll gladly fade the Toronto Raptors in this awful spot for them.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a shootout win over Washington last night that saw 252 combined points.  It will also be the 5th road game in 7 days for the Raptors tonight, which is as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA.  And it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Raptors after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall against very weak competition.

Boston is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Celtics are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after failing to cover three of their last four ATS coming in.  Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Celtics are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss.  Boston is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Grizzlies OVER 224

The OVER is 5-1 in Memphis' last six games overall.  They have combined for 227 or more points in five of those six games with their opponents.  They are averaging 233.7 combined points per game over their last six games, so I see some value with the OVER 224 tonight against Charlotte.

The Hornets will definitely oblige in playing a fast-paced game with the Grizzlies with little defense.  The Hornets have scored at least 111 points in six straight games and the OVER is 4-2 in those contests.  They have also allowed 111 or more points in nine of their last 13 games overall.

Charlotte is 22-8 OVER in its last 30 road games with a total of 220 to 229.5.  The OVER is 11-2 in Hornets last 13 road games after playing three consecutive home games.  The OVER is 42-21 in Hornets last 63 games with a total of 220 to 229.5 overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Hornets last five games as a road underdog.  

Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 200 or higher (Charlotte) - off two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against an opponent that's off a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 22-5 (81.5%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Memphis.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers ML +105

The Indiana Pacers will be highly motivated for a win tonight after losing three straight coming in against a very tough schedule in the Bucks, Pelicans and Jazz.  Those three teams are playing basically as well as anyone in the NBA tonight.

The Nets aren't on those teams' level right now.  Brooklyn is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  Kevin Durant had to leave the Toronto game that started this stretch due to COVID-19 protocol.  The Nets just aren't very good without him.  They lost 117-123 as 5.5-point home favorites against the Raptors, 108-124 as 7.5-point road dogs to the 76ers, and 111-122 as 5.5-point road favorites to the Pistons.

I was on the Pistons yesterday and I'll gladly fade the Nets again today, who will be without Durant once again.  And now the Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days, including their 3rd straight road game.  Meanwhile, the Pacers come in rested and ready to go on two days' rest having last played on Sunday.

The Nets are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games when playing on zero days' rest.  Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.  Indiana is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Pacers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Pacers on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Hawks/Mavs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 233.5

The Dallas Mavericks are getting back to playing how they were last season when they set some records for NBA offensive efficiency.  But the problem is that they play little to no defense.  That's a big reason why they are just 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They keep getting back doored because they cannot get stops.  I know this because I have been backing them a lot lately.

But I cashed in the OVER in their last game against the Timberwolves which saw 249 combined points.  And the OVER is now 4-0 in Mavericks last four games overall.  They combined for 263 and 266 points in basically their double-header against the Warriors, and neither of those two games went to overtime.  They also combined for 238 points with the Hawks, which is tonight's opponent.

Both of these teams rank in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency.  The Mavericks are 27th in defensive efficiency.  The Hawks have allowed 118.3 points per game in their last last three games.  And they are missing one of their best defenders in De'Andre Hunter, who likely would have matched up with Doncic.  The Hawks have scored 115 points or more in seven of their last 10 games.  They will be fresh coming in on three days' rest and ready to get up and down the floor with Dallas.  This one has shootout written all over it folks.

Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 210 or higher (Dallas) - after going OVER the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, in a game involving two teams that win 40% to 49% of their games are 38-12 (76%) since 1996.  The OVER is 6-1 in Mavericks last seven home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +7.5

It appears that Kevin Durant is the most important player in Brooklyn and it's not even close.  The Nets have been awful without him of late and he remains out due to COVID-19 protocols.  He likely won't be back with the team until Saturday.

Durant exited the game early against the Raptors two games back and the Nets were upset 117-123 at home as 5.5-point favorites against a Raptors team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Then they went into Philadelphia and got their doors blown off the next night in a 108-124 loss as 7.5-point dogs.

Now the Nets are going on the road and laying 7.5 points here against a Detroit Pistons team that has shown they can hang with and beat some of the best teams in the NBA of late.  In their last two home games, the Pistons upset the Lakers 107-92 as 7-point dogs and upset the 76ers 119-104 as 5-point dogs.  They also took the Lakers to overtime as 14-point dogs in their last game.  And after playing their last four games on the road, they return home here on two days' rest and will be ready to take down the Nets.

Brooklyn is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs.  Detroit is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game this season.  Take the Pistons Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Mavs OVER 224.5

The OVER is 3-0 in Mavericks last three games overall with combined scores of 238, 263 and 266 points.  They are an OVER bettors' dream with one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA, plus one of the most inefficient defenses.  They also play at a quick tempo.

The books have certainly missed their mark with this total tonight against the Timberwolves.  Minnesota plays at the 8th-fasted pace in the NBA.  The Timberwolves also rank just 20th in defensive efficiency this season.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 235 or more points four times.  The OVER is 7-1 in Mavericks last eight games as a favorite.  The OVER is 5-1 in Mavericks last six home games.  The OVER is 24-11 in Mavericks last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2.5

The Chicago Bulls had yesterday off following a 118-92 blowout of the Orlando Magic on Saturday.  Look for the more rested Bulls to win and cover tonight at home against a Washington Wizards team that is in a terrible spot.

Indeed, the Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following their loss in Charlotte on Sunday.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days and the 9th game in 14 days for the Wizards, who are having to try and make up some games due to a two-week absence due to COVID.

There's a good chance they rest Russell Westbrook, who is questionable tonight.  And it's a Wizards team that has been playing terrible since returning to action anyway.  Washington is now 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.

Washington is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  The Wizards are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 road games against Central Division opponents.  Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Chicago is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on one days' rest.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rockets/Hornets UNDER 223.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  Indeed, they rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, just behind the Los Angeles Lakers.  It has been a big key to their success in going 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall.

The Rockets have held 10 straight opponents to 112 points or fewer.  But now the Rockets take a hit on offense as they lose Christian Wood (22 PPG, 10.2 RPG) to an ankle injury.  They will have to rely even more on their defense without Wood, who helps space the floor and gets easy buckets for them.

The Hornets are coming off a 119-97 win over the Washington Wizards yesterday.  Now the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 18 days.  Their tired legs will affect them on offense, and it will assure that they won't be looking to push the tempo.

Houston is 22-6 UNDER in its last 28 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Rockets are 12-2 UNDER in their last 14 games off a home loss.  Houston is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games vs. up-tempo teams that average 88 or more shots per game.  The UNDER is 37-18-1 in Rockets last 56 games overall.  The UNDER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Charlotte.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -3

The Phoenix Suns got a healthy Devin Booker back in the lineup and are currently playing their best basketball of the season.  The Suns are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Now they are laying just 3 points at home to a Celtics team that has some injury issues right now.

The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart for this contest, two key guys on both ends of the floor, especially defensively.  The Suns should score at will on the Celtics today.  This is also a huge letdown spot for Boston off an upset win over the Clippers last time out.  But that was a Clippers team playing without Paul George and Patrick Beverly.

Plays on home favorites (Phoenix) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two teams that win 51% to 60% of their games are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against underdogs (Boston) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in a game involving two teams that win 51% to 60% of their games are 90-50 (64.3%) ATS since 1996.  

Phoenix is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Suns are 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  Bet the Suns Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +5

This is a good time to 'buy low' on the Indiana Pacers, who have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with two straight losses coming in.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they host the Utah Jazz.

It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the Jazz, who are 14-1 SU & 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  It has mostly come against a soft schedule with their last three wins coming against the Pistons, Hawks and Hornets.  

You're paying a premium to back the Jazz at this point.  And now they'll be without starting PG Mike Conley (16.5 PPG, 5.8 APG), who has had a career resurgence this season and has been a big key to their success.

The Pacers are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Jazz.  Utah is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Plays against road favorites (Utah) - off a road win by 10 points or more, a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 45-22 (67.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Pacers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -4

The Dallas Mavericks want revenge from a 116-147 home loss to the Warriors on Thursday.  Now they don't have to wait long for revenge as they get to host them against Saturday night on ABC.

That was a tough spot for the Mavs playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, while the Warriors had the previous day off.  The Warriors shot 47.3% as a team and made 22 3-pointers on 51.2% shooting.  The Mavs shot just 41.3% as a team.  Neither of those things are going to happen again. Now Dallas is rested and will be the more motivated team here in the rematch.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Dallas) - after losing by 30 or more points ATS in their last three games combined against an opponent that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

The Warriors are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS win.  Golden State is 25-51-3 ATS in its last 79 games following a SU win by more than 10 points.  Dallas is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +1

The Houston Rockets have been grossly undervalued since trading away James Harden.  They have finally gotten mostly healthy and it's starting to show as the Rockets are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Quietly, the Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.  That has been a big key to their success, plus John Wall and Victor Oladipo gelling together.  The ankle injury to Christian Wood is a big one, but I still think they have enough here to take down the Spurs.

The injury situation for the Spurs is much more dire right now.  They lost by 17 and 31 points to Memphis before needing a double-digit comeback in the 4th quarter to beat the lowly Timberwolves 111-108, going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are without Aldridge (14.1 PPG) and Walker IV (11.2 PPG) right now and could be without Murray (14.6 PPG, 5.3 APG, 7.2 APG), who is questionable with an ankle injury.

San Antonio is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite.  Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.  The Spurs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five trips to Houston.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with the Rockets Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Bulls -1

The Chicago Bulls want revenge from a 119-123 road loss at Orlando last night.  Now the Bulls get their chance at revenge a day later, and they will clearly be the more motivated team in this rematch.

The Bulls are the way deeper team right now due to all of the injuries for Orlando, which makes this a better situation for them than it does the Magic.  Orlando remains without Aaron Gordon, Markelle Fultz and a few others tonight.  It's a big reason why the Magic are just 3-12 SU & 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

Chicago is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games after a loss by 6 points or less.  Orlando is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  The Magic are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games as home underdogs.  Chicago is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on zero rest.  Take the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Sacramento Kings +3.5

The Sacramento Kings are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming 104-105 to the Miami Heat by a single point.  They have upset wins over the Raptors, Pelicans and Celtics during this stretch.

Now the Kings are in the favorable spot here coming in on two days' rest.  Meanwhile, the Nuggets just lost 93-114 to the defending champion Lakers on Thursday.  I always like fading teams after playing the defending champs, win or lose.

While the Kings are as healthy as they have been all season, which is a big reason for their resurgence, the injury situation is a dire one for the Nuggets.  They are without Whittington, Dozier and Harris and could be without both Jamal Murray, who is listed as questionable tonight.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - a hot team covering six or seven of their last eight ATS, when playing on two days' rest are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Sacramento is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Denver.  Bet the Kings Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets +8.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz tonight.  They are 13-1 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Now they are laying 8.5 points on the road to the Charlotte Hornets despite playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Jazz tonight.

The Hornets are playing well enough to hang with the Jazz.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Bucks as 9.5-point dogs, Heat as 7.5-point dogs and Pacers as 3.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 7 to the 76ers as 7-point dogs as well.  That's a gauntlet of a schedule, which will have them prepared to try and take down a team playing as well as the Jazz right now.

Plays against road favorites (Utah) - off a road win by 10 points or more, a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 45-20 (69.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games.  Charlotte is 20-7-2 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog, including 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* Raptors/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn -4.5

The Brooklyn Nets are starting to form a nice chemistry now that Durant, Harden and Irving are all healthy and in the lineup.  They have gone 9-3 SU in their last 12 games overall and didn't have this trio available at the same time for many of those games.

But the Nets did have all three against the Clippers last time out and beat them at home.  The Clippers are playing as well as almost anyone in the NBA right now, so that was an impressive win.  Now they've had the last two days off to rest and get some even better chemistry as they head into this showdown with Toronto.

I think Toronto is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after winning and covering its last two games against the depleted Orlando Magic.  The Raptors had lost three straight prior, and they've been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA at 9-12 SU & 8-13 ATS on the season.  They are playing without a key player in OG Anunoby tonight as well, and his presence as a wing defender will be missed.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Toronto) - after two straight wins by 10 points or more against an opponent that scored 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games playing on two days' rest.  Take the Nets Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +2

The Houston Rockets are coming off a bad 87-104 loss at Oklahoma City last night.  They had gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous six games.  And they had just beaten the same Thunder team by 30 two days prior.  So I think they took them lightly and paid the price for it.  Now this back-to-back situation is being factored too much into this line with the Rockets coming back as underdogs here against the Grizzlies when they should be the favorites.

But the good thing about that OKC loss was that they didn't play anyone more than 31 minutes because it was a blowout.  And now they should come back pretty fresh and motivated for a win tonight against the Grizzlies.  Plus, PG John Wall sat out that game to rest, so they'll have him back in the lineup tonight.  And this is a deep Rockets team now that everyone is healthy with Wall, Oladipo, Gordon, Cousins, Wood and Tucker leading the way.

It's a good spot to go against Memphis.  The Grizzlies had shockingly won seven straight prior to losing 116-134 at Indiana last time out.  I always like fading teams after an extended winning streak comes to an end.  They were beating up on a lot of bad teams during that winning streak, and now they face a legit squad here in Houston.  The Grizzlies will be without Valanciunas and Allen tonight due to quarantine as well.

Houston is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 road games off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite.  Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Houston) - after scoring 90 points or less against an opponent off a game where both teams scored 105 points or more are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Rockets Thursday.

20* Warriors/Mavericks TNT No-Brainer on Dallas -2

The Dallas Mavericks are grossly undervalued right now due to their recent season-high six-game losing streak.  But the Mavericks got over the hump last night with a 122-116 win in Atlanta.  And I'm not concerned about the back-to-back situation here because the Mavericks finally have some depth.

Indeed, Dallas has all hands on deck for the first time all season.  COVID and injuries forced several players to have to miss significant time this season.  But now that everyone is back, it's time to continue 'buying low' on the Mavericks.  I think this situation is being factored into the line too much as the Mavericks are clearly the superior team in this matchup.

The Warriors have held their own this season, but there just isn't much talent on this team outside Stephen Curry.  He has too much on his plate.  That's especially the case now with top draft pick James Wiseman out.  His backup in Kevon Looney is also out tonight, leaving the Warriors very thin in the paint.  I fully expect the Mavericks to take advantage and get to the rim with ease tonight.

Dallas is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Golden State with all four wins coming by 20 points or more and by an average of 32.5 points per game.  The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings dating back further.  Dallas is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games after failing to cover three of its last four ATS.  The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  Golden State is 7-25 ATS in its last 32 Thursday games.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -1.5

It's safe to say the Dallas Mavericks will be max motivated Wednesday after losing a season-high six straight games coming in.  They just lost on a 3-pointer right before the buzzer to the Suns last time out.  And I think they come in with a chip on their shoulder here against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

The Mavericks recently got everyone back from quarantine due to COVID.  So it's clearly there were going to be some chemistry issues with this team.  But their chemistry should be much better with each passing game now that everyone is healthy for basically the first time all season.

The Hawks are 6-9 in their last 15 games overall.  They are coming off a deflating loss to the defending champion Lakers, 99-107.  I always like fading teams after they play the defending champs, win or lose.  Atlanta's last five wins came against the Timberwolves (twice), Pistons, Wizards and a depleted Clippers team that was playing without Kawhi and Paul George.  So it's not like they have beaten anyone good lately.

Dallas is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 road games.  The Mavericks are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road favorites.  Dallas is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a road favorite of 6 points or less.  Atlanta is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after covering four or five of its last six ATS coming in.  The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Boston -2.5

The Boston Celtics will be highly motivated for a victory tonight off two straight losses to the Lakers and Spurs by a combined 5 points.  That followed up two wins over the Cavaliers and Bulls by a combined 54 points.  They have been playing better since getting Jayson Tatum back in the lineup.

Now they face a Warriors team they should handle tonight.  The Warriors will be missing star rookie James Wiseman, who has been doing all the dirty work for them inside.  If the Celtics have a weakness, it's their post play.  But that shouldn't be an issue here against the Warriors as they can go small with them and match up very well.

The Celtics have won three straight meetings with the Warriors by an average of 17.7 points per game.  Boston is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games playing on two days' rest.  Boston is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games following two consecutive non-conference games.  Take the Celtics Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +12.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who were just beaten by 27 points by the Warriors.  That was an obvious letdown spot after upsetting the Lakers 107-92 the game prior.  They also have a recent upset win over the 76ers, so they have proven they can play with anyone.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season.  Blake Griffin (12.5 PPG) and Derrick Rose (14.2 PPG) have both missed significant time, but they are both healthy and ready to go for this game against the Nuggets tonight.  Jerami Grant (23.6 PPG) has thrived in their absence and is quickly becoming a Most Improved Player award favorite.

This is a great time to fade the Utah Jazz.  They just had their 11-game winning streak snapped by Denver last time out.  And I always like going against teams that have long winning streaks end in the game after because there is a hangover effect.  You're also paying a premium right now to back the Jazz because they have not only won 11 of their last 12, they have also gone 11-1 ATS during this stretch.  So it's a 'sell high' spot on them.

The Pistons also want revenge from an 86-96 home loss to the Jazz as part of this winning streak.  Not that the Pistons were 8.5-point dogs in that game and now they are 12.5-point dogs in the rematch, so there is some value here.  And Rose didn't play in that first meeting.

Detroit is 9-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Detroit) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against an opponent off two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 60-25 (70.6%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

20* Suns/Mavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Dallas -1

We should see one of the best efforts of the season out of the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They have lost five straight coming in all against playoff contenders.  That includes their 105-111 loss to the Suns on Saturday.  Now they will be out for revenge on the Suns as they get to host them again here Monday.

The Mavericks were missing a lot of players due to quarantine, which is the biggest reason for their recent struggles.  But now they have everyone back for the first time all season.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Mavericks as they should improve rapidly in the coming days.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Suns off two straight wins over the Warriors and Mavericks.  The Suns are likely to be without leading scorer Devin Booker tonight as he recovers from a hamstring injury.  They are also going to be without fellow guard Cameron Payne.

Phoenix is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games after a win by 6 points or less.  Dallas is 55-37 ATS in its last 92 games following a SU loss.  The Mavericks are 50-32 ATS in their last 82 games following an ATS loss.  Rick Carlisle is 15-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games as the coach of Dallas.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -5

The Houston Rockets have finally gotten healthy and put the James Harden saga behind them.  Now the likes of Oladipo, Wall, Cousins, Wood, Gordon, Tucker and company are starting to play up to their potential.

Indeed, the Rockets are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their five wins have come by an average of 12.4 points per game.  They should pick up their sixth straight victory here and get the cover against the struggling Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

They Thunder are 2-4 in their last six games overall with their four losses coming by an average of 15.5 points per game.  Their two wins over Portland and Phoenix during this stretch came by a combined 8 points.  Oklahoma City has been a terrible bet at home, going 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in all home games this season.

Plays on road favorites (Houston) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent, against a team that is off a home loss by 10 points or more are 62-25 (71.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Roll with the Rockets Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Brooklyn Nets -7

Two teams headed in opposite directions square off Sunday when the surging Brooklyn Nets visit the struggling Washington Wizards.  This game has blowout written all over it, and I'm a little surprised the Nets aren't double-digit favorites here.

The Nets are clearly starting to form some chemistry with Harden, Durant and Irving.  They are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall, including four straight victories by an average of 10.8 points per game.  It should be more of the same here against the Wizards.

Washington had a two-week break due to COVID.  They have returned from that break and gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games with all four losses coming by 16 points or more.  I don't know how they can be expected to even compete with the Nets tonight.  The fact that the Wizards have lost 10 straight games in which Bradley Beal has scored 40 points or more says all you need to know about the lack of help he has.

Brooklyn is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 road games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more.  Washington is just 3-12 SU this season.  The Wizards are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games.  Washington is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a loss.  Roll with the Nets Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls -2

The Portland Trail Blazers are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two wins both came at home over the Hawks and Knicks by a combined 9 points.  Their four losses have come by an average of 12.8 points per game with three of those at home as well.

Now the Blazers hit the road to take on the Chicago Bulls, who have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA this season.  The Bulls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall and improving rapidly under first-year head coach Billy Donovan.  This team just has too much young talent to be held back for too long, and Donovan is getting the most out of it.

While the Bulls are fully healthy outside of Wendell Carter Jr, the Blazers are struggling right now due to their injuries.  They remain without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, which are two of their best three players.  They will also be without Derrick Jones Jr. and could be without Robert Covington tonight.

The Bulls have had the last four days off and will be rested and ready to go.  They already won in Portland 111-108 back on January 5th in their first meeting this season as 9.5-point dogs back when the Blazers were healthy and Chicago wasn't.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Plays against any team (Portland) - revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite of 7 points or more, off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog are 58-24 (70.7%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +1

The Houston Rockets are finally getting healthy with Wall, Oladipo, Wood, Cousins, Tucker, Gordon and company forming a nice chemistry.  They have put the James Harden saga behind them and are finally starting to play up to their potential.

Indeed, the Rockets are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their four wins coming by a combined 48 points.  Now they had yesterday off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  They will be rested and ready to go tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Pelicans, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 131-126 upset win over the Bucks last night.  Now the Pelicans are in a massive letdown spot here, and their tired legs won't allow them to beat the Rockets, either.  This is a Pelicans team that is just 3-8 SU in its last 11 games overall.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against an opponent that went under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3.5

This is a get right spot for the Orlando Magic.  They had yesterday off and will be rested and ready to go tonight.  Look for them to come out motivated for a win after losing nine of their last 11 games overall amidst a lot of injury issues.  But they are finally about as healthy as they have been in a long time with their Big 3 of Vucevic, Gordon and Fournier all playing now.

This is a terrible spot for the Clippers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They pulled out a 109-105 upset win at depleted Miami last night despite being without Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Patrick Beverly.  But now this terrible spot will hit the short-handed Clippers hard, and they won't be able to keep up with the rested Magic for four quarters.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +1

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off three straight road losses to Sacramento, Portland and Utah.  But now they are finally back home here and come in rested after having the last two days off.

The Knicks also want revenge from a 103-106 road loss at Cleveland on January 15th exactly two weeks ago today.  They were 2-point road favorites in that game, and now they are 1-point home dogs in the rematch, a 3-point adjustment despite flipping home floors in the Knicks' favor.  This line makes no sense and the Knicks should be favored tonight.

The Cavaliers are 30-61-1 ATS in their last 92 games as favorites, including 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as road favorites.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Knicks are 21-10 ATS in their last 21 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Roll with the Knicks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Hornets after losing six of their last seven coming in.  They'll be highly motivated for revenge after losing 106-116 at home as 3-point dogs to Indiana on Thursday.  Now they come back as 3.5-point home dogs in the rematch with the Pacers.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Pacers, who have won two in a row and three of their last four coming in.  The Pacers still have some injury issues that are not allowing to live up to their full potential, but they have feasted on a pretty weak schedule here of late.

The Hornets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.  Charlotte is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog.  The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Charlotte is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with Indiana.

Plays against road teams (Indiana) - off two straight covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Hornets Friday.

20* Blazers/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston -4.5

The Houston Rockets are getting healthy and it's starting to show.  John Wall and Victor Oladipo combined for 44 points on Thursday in a 107-88 win over Washington.  Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins are playing well, and now they get Christian Wood back in the lineup tonight.  The Rockets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.

Conversely, the Portland Trail Blazers are banged up right now.  They are missing CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic.  They will also be without Robert Covington tonight.  The Blazers are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall despite playing all five games at home.

Their only two wins came against the Hawks by 6 and the Knicks by 3.  They lost tot he Pacers by 24, the Spurs by 21 and were upset by the Thunder.  There is just too much on Damian Lillard's plate right now.  He won't be able to keep the Blazers competitive against a Rockets team that is playing well and is as healthy as they have been all season.

Portland is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets ML +105

The Charlotte Hornets will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They had won four straight before losing five of their last six coming in.  Now they face a banged up Pacers team that they can handle at home tonight.

The Pacers lost Victor Oladipo via trade to the Rockets.  His replacement in Caris LeVert just had kidney surgery.  They were already without scorer T.J. Warren, and now they may be without their most important player in Domantas Sabonis (20.4 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 5.6 APG) tonight.  He is questionable with a knee injury and the Pacers would be wise to be cautious with him.

These injuries have added up as the Pacers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Hornets are fully healthy right now.  Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Charlotte is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home underdog.  The Hornets are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Indiana is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to Charlotte.  Bet the Hornets on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -3.5

The Houston Rockets are finally starting to get healthy, get some practice time together, and their chemistry is starting to show.  The Rockets are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games overall with upset road wins over the Pistons and Mavericks (by 25) in their last two games.

Now the Rockets come in rested and ready to go after having the last two games off.  Victor Oladipo could return tonight after missing last game.  But they didn't need him as they beat the Mavericks by 25 behind 33 points from Eric Gordon and 28 from DeMarcus Cousins.  John Wall is back healthy now, and they should get Danuel House back from injury tonight as well.

The Wizards are a mess right now.  They are just 3-9 on the season.  They just returned from a nearly two-week absence and lost 101-121 in San Antonio on Sunday.  They are still playing without Hachimura, Wagner, Smith, Bertans and Bryant among others.  They are so short-handed right now that they've had to sign a couple players in recent weeks.  They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 3.5-point dogs to the Rockets given their current situation.

The Wizards are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Detroit Pistons will be out for revenge from a 110-114 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday.  Now the Pistons come back as 6.5-point home dogs two days later in the rematch.  They will be the more motivated team here.

The 76ers have a big game on deck against the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers.  They could easily be looking ahead to that game.  They also may decide to rest Joel Embiid, who had 33 points and 14 rebounds yesterday.  He is questionable for this one.

Conversely, the Pistons didn't have either Derrick Rose or Blake Griffin yesterday and still only lost by 4 points.  They won't have Rose, but they are expected to get Griffin back in the lineup for this one.  The Pistons are the definition of a team as they had seven different players score in double figures yesterday.  Getting Griffin back could make all the difference and have them winning this game outright.

Philadelphia is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 road games off two or more consecutive wins.  The 76ers are 14-35-2 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog.  Take the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic PK

The Orlando Magic want revenge from a 104-107 home loss to the Charlotte Hornets yesterday.  Now they get to play the Hornets again today.  They go from being 2-point favorites yesterday to a pick 'em today.  The value is on the Magic due to motivation and a better line.

The way the Magic lost that game will not be sitting well with them.  They blew a 12-point lead at the start of the 4th quarter and were outscored 33-18 in the final period.  I always like backing the more motivated team in this situation, and I certainly like the fact that the Magic just have to win the game to cover.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma City Thunder +13.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder just played the Clippers in Los Angeles on Friday and only lost 106-120 as 14-point dogs.  Now we only need them to improve by a single point to cover this 13.5-point spread in the rematch.  I think there's a ton of value with the Thunder today as they'll be the more motivated team.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers, who have won six straight coming in.  They have a big six-game road trip to get ready for coming up after this.  I don't think we will get their best effort today, and it's going to take their best effort to cover this massive spread.

Oklahoma City is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games with a total of 220 or higher.  The Thunder are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs.  Oklahoma City is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 Sunday games.  Roll with the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9.5

The Chicago Bulls have been covering machines as they are consistently undervalued in the betting markets.  The Bulls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have just one loss in their last 13 games by more than 4 points, and that came against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Speaking of the Bucks, the Lakers are in a letdown spot following a 113-106 road win over the Bucks on National TV (TNT) Thursday night.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Bulls tonight.  Plus, they just recently beat the Bulls 117-115 at home as 8.5-point favorites on January 8th.  Now they come back as 9.5-point road favorites in the rematch, which makes no sense.

Chicago is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Bulls are 8-1 ATS as dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Los Angeles is 21-40 ATS in its last 61 non-conference games.  Chicago is 10-1 ATS vs. teams that score 106 or more points per game this season.  Chicago is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  Take the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Suns UNDER 219

The Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns just played last night with the Nuggets winning 130-126 in overtime.  That games was tied 114-114 at the end of regulation for 228 combined points.  I think the UNDER is a great bet tonight with both teams coming back tired.

I doubt either team is able to shoot as well as they did in the first meeting.  The Nuggets shot 51.5% while the Suns shot 50%.  Familiarity favors defense, and tired legs certainly don't help offense.  Plus, the Suns are going to be without leading scorer Devin Booker (22.9 PPG) in the rematch after he sustained a hamstring injury in overtime.  That's a big loss as Booker had 31 points last night.

The UNDER is 10-4 in Suns last 14 games overall.  The UNDER is 21-10 in Suns last 31 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -4

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings, who are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  But it has come against a brutal schedule of the Clippers (twice), Blazers and Pelicans.  Now they get to face one of the worst teams in the East in the Knicks and will take advantage.

It's a great rest spot for the Kings as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  It's a terrible rest spot for the Knicks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an upset road win over the Golden State Warriors last night.  It will also be the 8th game in 13 days for the Knicks here.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves +6

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who just blew a 20-point lead against the Magic and lost 96-97 at the buzzer last time out.  This is a motivated, rested Timberwolves team that will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days here tonight.

The Timberwolves will be out for revenge from a 97-108 road loss at Atlanta on December 18th just five days ago.  Now they get their shot at revenge here Friday night and are catching 6 points at home in the rematch.  This is a game they can win outright.

It's not like the Hawks are playing all that well right now, either.  They are 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They erased a huge deficit to come back and beat the Pistons in overtime at home last time out.  Cam Redish and De'Andre Hunter are questionable tonight, while they are still without Bogdanovic and Gallinari.

Atlanta is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after winning two of its last three games coming in.  The Hawks are 1-10 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Atlanta is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Hawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2.5

The Toronto Raptors will be out for revenge from a 102-111 home loss to the Miami Heat on Wednesday.  Look for them to have their revenge tonight in the rematch just two days later on Friday.

Now the Raptors go from being 4-point favorites in that first meeting to just 2.5-point favorites in the rematch, so there's some line value here.  Plus the Raptors aren't going to shoot as poorly as they did in the first meeting, where they shot just 39.8% compared to 48.7% for Miami.  That includes 18-for-40 (45%) from 3-point range for the Heat, which is very unlikely for them to repeat.

Miami is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game.  The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* Celtics/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 222.5

These teams just played on Wednesday with the 76ers winning 117-109 at home for 226 combined points.  The total was 220 for that game and now the books have jacked up this total 2.5 points to 222.5.  I think that's the wrong adjustment, and now there's great value with the UNDER in the rematch.

Familiarity favors defense.  Points will be much harder to come by in the rematch.  And the 76ers shot a whopping 45 free throws in that first meeting and made 36 of them.  They aren't going to get a free 36 points in the rematch, and they certainly won't get nearly as many calls as they did in that first game.

The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 216 or fewer in five of those.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Celtics last 20 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 8-2 in 76ers last 10 games following an ATS win.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Boston) - a well rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 87-34 (71.9%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Pelicans/Jazz TNT Late Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +7

This is the perfect spot to bet New Orleans tonight.  We'll 'buy low' on the Pelicans, who have lost six of their last seven games overall, including their 102-118 loss in Salt Lake City on Tuesday.  Now the Pelicans will be the more motivated team here out for revenge and getting a chance at payback just two days later.

It's the ultimate 'sell high' spot on the Jazz.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  And they won't be very motivated to face a Pelicans team that they just beat by 16 as 6.5-point favorites on Tuesday.  Now they are even bigger favorites here laying 7 points in the rematch.

That was a rare blowout win for the Jazz in this series as the previous three meetings were all decided by 6 points or less.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Jazz are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 games as home favorites

Plays against any team (Utah) - off two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 53-18 (74.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio Spurs +1.5

This is a huge letdown spot for the Golden State Warriors.  They erased a double-digit 4th quarter deficit on TNT on MLK Day and pulled the 115-113 upset as 9-point road underdogs.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Spurs as they were to go up against the defending champs two days ago.

This is a Spurs team quietly playing some great basketball of late, especially on the road.  The Spurs have won six of their last eight games overall, including upset road wins over both the Lakers and Clippers.

The Spurs are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Warriors are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games off a close win by 3 points or less.  Golden State is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 games as a home favorite.  The Warriors are 19-39-1 ATS in their last 59 games following an ATS win.  The Spurs are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Spurs Wednesday.

20* Pelicans/Jazz NBA TV No-Brainer on New Orleans +6.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz tonight.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are coming off a huge 109-105 road win over the Nuggets on Sunday, getting revenge on the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  This is now a big letdown spot for the Jazz tonight.

It's also a great time to 'buy low' on the New Orleans Pelicans.  They have gone just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  They blew a 15-point lead against the Lakers, lost by 5 to the Clippers, lost by 1 to the Thunder and lost by 2 to the Pacers.  So it's not like they are getting blown out, and catching 6.5 points with them here is a nice value.

The Jazz are 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 home games.  Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  Each of the last three meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or less.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 226.5

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors have been great UNDER bets this season.  The Lakers are 10-2 UNDER in their last 12 games overall, while the Warriors are 5-0 UNDER in their last five games overall.

The Lakers are such a great UNDER bet because they play great defense and run their offense through Lebron James and Anthony Davis, so they have to slow it down.  The Lakers rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season.

The Warriors are an improved defensive team this season because they know they have to rely on defense without the firepower of Klay Thompson.  They really don't have many good offensive weapons outside Stephen Curry.  The Warriors rank 25th in offensive efficiency and 17th in defensive efficiency.

The UNDER is 9-1 in Lakers last 10 games following a win.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven games as a road underdog.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 216 or fewer points in four of them.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Suns/Grizzlies TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -3

The Phoenix Suns will be rested and ready to go tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.  They haven't played in seven days with their last game coming on Monday, January 11th.  They will also be highly motivated for a victory off a loss.  The Suns are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three games following a loss this season.

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They faced a very soft schedule during this stretch, and this is a big step up in class for them.  They will be without one of the most underrated players in the NBA on Jonas Valanciunas tonight.  He averages 14.4 points and 10.4 rebounds per game this season and does all the dirty work for them.

Phoenix is 60-32 ATS in its last 92 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Bet the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Monday Early ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio Spurs -1

The San Antonio Spurs have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall including upset road wins over both the Lakers and Clippers.  And now they should take down a short-handed Portland Trail Blazers team that is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 5-1 SU in its last six games overall against a very soft schedule.

But now the Blazers are going to be without two of their three best players in C.J. McCollum (26.7 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Jusuf Nurkic (9.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG) tonight.  Nirkic suffered a broken wrist a couple games back, while McCollum sustained a foot injury last time out and is out indefinitely.  Damian Lillard can't carry the load without these two against a team the caliber of the Spurs.

The Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Portland is 0-9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Take the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +7

The Chicago Bulls have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to this point.  Their 4-8 SU record will have them undervalued moving forward.  And we'll keep getting more points with them than we should be getting.

Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Bulls have a total of one loss by more than 4 points in those nine games, and that came to the best team in the East in the Milwaukee Bucks as 14.5-point dogs.  They have upset wins over the Wizards (twice), Mavericks and Blazers.  They also have five losses by 4 points or fewer, so they simply haven't been able to close out games.

The Bulls are rested and highly motivated for a win right now after losing four straight coming in.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  And they want to end this 6-game road trip with a victory in Dallas tonight.  It's a Mavericks team they already beat 118-108 as 4-point home underdogs.  And now they are catching even more points (+7) in the rematch.

Dallas is overvalued after going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Mavericks had their four-game winning streak come to an end with a tough 109-112 loss at Milwaukee on National TV Friday.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat here Sunday.  And they will still be without Dorian-Finney Smith, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell and Josh Richardson due to COVID.  They could also be without both Jalen Brunson and Tim Hardaway Jr.

The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games playing on one days' rest.  Chicago is 6-0 ATS in its last six Sunday games.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  Chicago is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games after covering four of its last five ATS.  These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing Chicago.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -6.5

The San Antonio Spurs just blew a 9-point lead late in the 4th quarter against the Houston Rockets on Thursday and lost 105-109.  It's safe to say the Spurs will be out for revenge in this spot as they get a rematch just two days later on Saturday.

It's a banged up Rockets team that will be missing John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Danuel House Jr. and could be without Eric Gordon.  I think the Spurs just took them lightly in the first meeting.  Greg Popovich won't allow that in the rematch.

The Rockets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  The Spurs are 54-26 ATS in their last 80 games when revenging a loss.  Bet the Spurs Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after going just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  This team is tough to defend as they have shot 51.6% or better in four of their last five games overall.  And they come in highly motivated for a victory against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.

The Clippers have been consistently overvalued of late.  They are 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  All four of their wins came by 7 points or fewer over the Pelicans (by 5), Bulls (by 3), Warriors (by 7) and Suns (by 5).  So asking them to cover a 7-point spread on the road here is asking a lot based on how they have been playing of late.

Sacramento is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in its last two meetings with the Clippers winning 124-103 as 14-point road dogs and 112-103 as 9-point road dogs.  The Kings are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after losing six or seven of their last eight games coming in.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS int heir last 10 games playing on one days' rest.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  Roll with the Kings Friday.

15* Pelicans/Lakers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +10

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the New Orleans Pelicans.  They are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with all four losses by 8 points or fewer.  That includes their 106-111 loss at the Clippers as 11.5-point dogs last time out.  But they didn't have Zion Williamson in that game and still only lost by 5 points.  Williamson returns to the lineup tonight.

It's also time to 'sell high' on the Los Angeles Lakers.  They are 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall and have covered three straight coming in.  But those three ATS wins came against a gutless James Harden and the Houston Rockets (twice) as well as the Thunder, who are one of the least talented teams in the league.

The Pelicans have played the Lakers very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, they haven't lost any of the last four meetings by more than 10 points.  So getting double-digits here with the Pelicans is a tremendous value, especially considering they are a much better team than they were in their four meetings last year.  It's also worth noting that both Lebron James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable tonight so there's a chance that one or both sit.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (New Orleans) - after going over the total by 30 or more points in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games are 72-32 (69.2%) ATS since 1996.  The Lakers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -9

I love the spot for the Toronto Raptors.  They will be highly motivated for a victory here after losing their last two games by a single point each.  They've had the last two days off to recover from their 5-game road trip and will be fresh and ready to get back in the win column in a big way tonight.

The spot couldn't be worse for the Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after losing 93-104 at home to the Dallas Mavericks last night.  And their best player in Gordon Hayward suffered a hip injury in the loss and is questionable to play tonight.  Chances are the Hornets will sit Hayward, who has been red hot in averaging 26.6 PPG in his last five games.

Toronto is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Charlotte is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a double-digit home loss.  Roll with the Raptors Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +10.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They will be out for revenge following a 134-137 (OT) loss at Philadelphia as 8.5-point dogs on Tuesday.  Now they get to face the 76ers and are 10.5-point dogs in the rematch.

I get that the 76ers are getting some players back from COVID issues, but the Heat were short-handed last time and will have basically the same lineup this time.  They thrive in the role of underdogs when people count them out.  Guys like Vincent had 24, Herro 34, Robinson 26, Achiuwa 17 and Olynyk 15 points.  And they are good enough to not lose by double-digits in this rematch.

The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall not once winning by more than 5 points.  The Heat are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Miami is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Heat Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  That followed a great run of going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous six games.  And now the Knicks are catching 5 points at home against a Brooklyn Nets team that has been awful and is in a terrible spot.

The Nets are just 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are missing their two lead guards in Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie.  And now they are going to be extremely tired due to the schedule and being short-handed.

The Nets are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after facing Denver on Tuesday.  They had to put a lot of effort in overcoming an 18-point deficit in the 3rd quarter to win that game 122-116.  Not to mention, it will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Nets, which is as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.

The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Nets, not once losing by more than 4 points in any of the four meetings.  The Nets are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Brooklyn is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  New York is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Nets.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10.5

The Detroit Pistons will be out for revenge after losing two meetings with Milwaukee on January 4th and January 6th.  They lost by 10 and 15 points.  I fully expect them to lose this game by 10 points or fewer or win the game outright.

Clearly, the Pistons will be the more motivated team here playing with double-revenge.  The Bucks probably think they just have to show up to win.  And it's a rested Pistons team that has had the last two days off after losing to Utah by 10 on Sunday. The Bucks will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here.  They are overvalued after beating two of the worst teams in the East in Cleveland by 10 and Orlando by 22.  

Both of those teams are injury-ravaged right now and missing a ton of key players.  The Pistons are as healthy as they've been all season and it's starting to show as they have gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall, including outright upset wins over the Celtics as 8.5-point dogs and the Suns as 8-point dogs.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Detroit) - off a home loss by 10 points or more when playing on two days' rest are 70-35 (66.7%) ATS since 1996.  Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - a top team outscoring their opponents by 9-plus points per game against an opponent that scored 90 points or less last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.  

The Bucks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss.  Roll with the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Rockets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Houston +5.5

I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 102-120 home loss to the Lakers on Sunday.  Now they don't have to wait long for revenge as they host the Lakers here again.  And we're getting extra value as the Rockets were 3.5-point dogs in that first meeting and now 5.5-point dogs in the rematch.

The Rockets will clearly be the more motivated team here.  And they aren't likely to shoot as poorly as they did in that first meeting where they shot 41.1% from the field and just 29.3% from 3-point range.

We've seen the Lakers falter in this situation twice recently.  After beating the Spurs by 14 as 7.5-point favorites on December 30th, they failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites in the rematch on January 1st.  After beating the Grizzlies by 14 as 10-point favorites on January 3rd, they only beat the Grizzlies by 2 as 9.5-point favorites in the rematch on January 5th and failed to cover.

The Lakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Houston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games after going under the total in two or more consecutive games.  Plays against road teams (LA Lakers) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 52-23 (69.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 226.5

The Indiana Pacers have been a lot more of an offensive juggernaut this season under new head coach Nate Bjorkgren.  They are scoring 115.0 points per game, shooting 48.9% as a team and hoisting a lot more 3-pointers than last year.  Their defense has taken a hit as a result too.

The Kings like to run and gun as well as they average 112.4 points per game and are 10th in the NBA in pace.  But they give up 121.0 points per game and rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  This game has shootout written all over it.

The OVER is 5-2 in Kings last seven games overall with combined scores of 240 or more points in five of them.  The OVER is 26-10 in Kings last 36 games with a total of 220 to 229.5 points.  The OVER is 18-8 in Pacers last 26 games following a loss.  The OVER is 19-7 in Kings last 26 games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 5-0 in Kings last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +11.5

The Chicago Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now.  They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with upset wins over the Mavericks, Blazers and Wizards (twice).  They also only lost by 2 to the Lakers as 9-point dogs and by 1 to the Warriors as 3.5-point dogs.  They have lost just one of their last eight games by more than 4 points, and that was a blowout loss to the Bucks, which can be expected.

The Clippers have no business being double-digit favorites over the Bulls today.  They are just 2-3 SU in their last five games overall with their two wins come by 7 and 5 points.  So they haven't won any of their last five games by more than 7 points.

The Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games playing on one days' rest.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  The Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games playing on one days' rest.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +8.5

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz off their upset win as 5.5-point underdogs over the Milwaukee Bucks last time out.  The Jazz are a tired team right now playing their 7th game in 11 days.  They won't have enough left in the tank here in their 5th straight road game to beat the Pistons by more than 8.5 points.

It's also a good time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who are off to a 2-7 start this season.  But the Pistons have won outright in this price range twice with an upset win as an 8.5-point dog over the Celtics and an upset win as 8-point dogs to the Suns.  They also only lost by 2 as 8-point dogs to the Celtics in the rematch.

Betting on Jazz games is simple.  Back them as underdogs and fade them as favorites.  Indeed, the Jazz are 6-23-2 ATS in their last 31 games as favorites.  The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers have been one of my favorite teams to back in the early going this season.  They are way underrated because they are mostly healthy this season, which hasn't been the case in recent years.  And the players love head coach Nate Bjorkgren.

He has given them the freedom to play to their strengths.  It has paid off in a big way as they have three All-Star caliber players in Malcom Brogdon (23.6 PPG, 7.0 APG), Domantas Sabonis (20.8 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 6.4 APG) and Victor Oladipo (20.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.3 APG).  This trio can take them a long way when healthy, which has been the case thus far.

The Pacers are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.  Now they face a tired Phoenix Suns team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 105-110 (OT) loss in Detroit last night.  It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Suns.  The Pacers had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go.

Plays against road underdogs of 3 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - a tired team playing their 2nd game in 2 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on two days' rest.  The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 231

I love the spot for this UNDER to come through for us Friday.  The Clippers and Warriors just played on Wednesday, so they are familiar with one another.  And they combined for just 209 points in a 108-101 victory for the Clippers.

Now this total has been set a whopping 22 points higher than that 209-point finish with a 231-point total.  The oddsmakers have messed this one up.  There's a good chance that the Warriors will be without Stephon Curry, who has an ankle injury.  Patrick Beverly shut down Curry in the first meeting, limiting him to a season-low 13 points on 5-of-17 shooting.  So even if he does play Beverly can slow him down again.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 230 or higher (Golden State) - revenging a same season loss, after a home game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 61-31 (66.3%) over the last five seasons.

The UNDER is 7-2-2 in Clippers last 11 games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 10-4-2 in Clippers last 16 games as a favorite.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Warriors last 13 games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Warriors last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +9.5

This is a bad spot for the Lakers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days.  They showed some fatigue last night in a 109-118 loss to the Spurs as 8.5-point favorites.  And now they are being overvalued again as 9.5-point favorites against Chicago tonight.

While the Lakers appear to be going through the motions after winning a title, the Bulls have been out to prove a point under first-year head coach Billy Donovan.  They are showing the world that their young talent is finally starting to gel, and they are living up to their potential in the early going.

Indeed, the Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as they have consistently been undervalued.  They have won four of their last six games straight up with a 4-point loss to Sacramento and the other loss coming to the Bucks.  They upset Washington in both road meetings, upset Dallas 118-108 and upset Portland 111-108 as 9.5-point road dogs.  They will hang with the Lakers tonight given the awful spot for Los Angeles.

Chicago is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering three of its last four ATS coming in.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven gams as underdogs.  Chicago is 6-0 ATS in its last six games playing on one days' rest.  The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7

The San Antonio Spurs are playing with double-revenge here.  They will be facing the Lakers for the 3rd time since December 30th.  They lost the first two meetings but covered in the second meeting in a 6-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.  And now they are 7-point dogs in the trilogy and I think they have a great chance to win outright tonight.

The situation is a good one for the Spurs, who will be staying in Los Angeles after their 116-113 upset of the Clippers as 7-point dogs on Tuesday.  The situation is a terrible one for the Lakers, who are now back home following a four-game road trip.  I love fading teams in their first game back home following a long trip.

The Lakers will be playing their 7th game in 12 games here, and they have another game tomorrow against Chicago.  There's a good chance they rest one or both of their two stars tonight in Anthony Davis and Lebron James.  They are both listed as questionable tonight with James dealing with an ankle injury, and Davis dealing with a strained thigh muscle.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out with an ankle injury as well.

Conversely, the Spurs now have LaMarcus Aldridge back in the lineup.  He didn't play in either of their first two meetings with the Lakers.  The Spurs are 52-25 ATS in their last 77 games when revenging a loss.  San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog.  The Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Bet the Spurs Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets ML +110

The Brooklyn Nets showed they could still get it done without Kevin Durant with an impressive 130-96 home win over the Utah Jazz as 4.5-point dogs on Tuesday.  Now they come back as home underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight in a game I expect them to win outright.

The spot couldn't be any worse for the 76ers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days here.  They just played a 141-136 shootout with Washington last night, which will have taken a lot out of them.  Don't be surprised to see them rest some key players tonight against the Nets.

Philadelphia is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games following four or more consecutive wins.  The 76ers are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games following two or more consecutive home wins.  Philadelphia is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 road games.  Take the Nets on the Money Line Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +7.5

Tom Thibodeau quietly has the New York Knicks maximizing their potential in the early going.  The Knicks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five gmaes overall with upset wins over Milwaukee, Indiana, Atlanta and Cleveland.  Their lone loss came on the road to Toronto.

Now they take on a tired Utah Jazz team coming off a 96-130 loss as a 5-point favorite at Brooklyn last night.  The Jazz will now be playing their 5th game in 7 days and the fatigue is starting to show.  There's no way the Jazz should be favored by 7.5 points here given the terrible spot with the 5th game in 7 days.

Plays against favorites (Utah) - off an embarrassing loss by 20 points or more as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jazz are 6-22-2 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites.  Utah is 6-24 ATS in the last 30 meetings, including 3-12 ATS in the last 15 meetings in New York.  Take the Knicks Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers -2

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the early going.  They are loaded with talent at the top with their Big 3 of Victor Oladipo (20.8 PPG, 45.5% 3-pointers), Domanta Sabonis (20.6 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 6.7 APG, 52.9% 3-pointers) and Malcolm Brogdon (22.0 PPG, 7.0 APG, 44.7% 3-pointers), who are all All-Star caliber players.  And they love new head coach Nate Bjorkgren.

"First and foremost, coach got all the fight in the world," Oladipo said following an OT win over the Pelicans in which they trailed by 6 with 30 seconds left. "The whole time down the stretch, with a minute left, with 38 seconds left, he was telling us 'it's not over, it's not over.' Tha's all he kept screaming from the sideline.  We believed that, and we made something happen down the stretch."

"We've got one of the best coaches in the league, if not the best," Malcolm Brogdon said afterward. "I'm going to continue to say that during the season and make sure people understand how well-coached we are. Nate puts everybody in a position to play their game and show their strengths."

While the Pacers are feeling good about themselves and playing up to their potential, the Houston Rockets are a mess right now.  It's hard to know whether or not James Harden even wants to be there.  And they are trying to implement a bunch of new pieces, and it has hurt them defensively.  The Rockets are 2-3 this season and coming off an upset home loss to the Mavericks, 100-113.  

The Rockets are 20th in defensive efficiency and giving up 115.6 points per game.  That's bad news for them as they will be up against a Pacers team that is 8th in offensive efficiency, scoring 114.9 points per game and shooting 49.3% as a team.  The Pacers are also 12th in defensive efficiency this season.

The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Rockets are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games following a SU loss.  The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 Wednesday games.  Houston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 trips to Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER 218.5

The Lakers and Grizzlies will square off for the second time in three days.  The familiarity between these teams will lead us to an UNDER tonight, plus the fact that the Grizzlies are an UNDER team now that they are without their best player in JA Morant for a few weeks.

It's amazing the oddsmakers haven't adjusted this total much off the first meeting.  The Lakers won 108-94 for 202 combined points.  And now we have a 218.5-point total for the rematch here tonight, which is way too high.

The Lakers are an UNDER team as well as the UNDER is 5-0 in their last five games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Grizzlies last five games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Lakers last six road games.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Grizzlies last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +9.5

I like the spot for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They will get their chance at revenge on the Philadelphia 76ers after losing to them 112-127 on Saturday.  Now they get to face them again just two days later and will be the more motivated team in this rematch.

The Hornets shot just 41.3% as a team while the 76ers shot 59.3% as a team in that first meeting.  It's actually surprising the 76ers didn't win by more than 15 with that disparity.  You have to think the Hornets will close the gap in the rematch.

Remember, this is a Hornets team that pulled off two impressive upsets over Dallas as 8.5-point dogs and Brooklyn as 11-point dogs prior to two bad losses to Memphis and Philadelphia.  So it's a good time to 'buy low' on them.  It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the 76ers, who are off to a 5-1 start this season and have won and covered three in a row.

Plays against home favorites (Philadelphia) - after allowing 110 points or more against an opponent that's off two straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

The Hornets are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 games off two or more consecutive losses.  The 76ers are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games off two or more consecutive ATS wins.  Charlotte is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* Blazers/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +5.5

I like the situation for the Golden State Warriors tonight.  They want revenge from a 98-123 home loss to the Blazers on Friday just two days ago.  And now they go from being 3.5-point dogs in the first meeting to 5.5-point dogs in the rematch, so there's value here.

The Warriors will clearly be the more motivated team in this situation.  And they aren't going to shoot as poorly as they did in the first meeting, going 7-of-35 (20%) from 3-point range.  Conversely, the Blazers won't shoot as well as they did last time.  They shot 20-of-43 (46.5%) from distance.

Plays against road teams (Portland) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Golden State is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 home meetings with Portland.  Roll with the Warriors Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +5

The San Antonio Spurs are highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost three striaght since opening 2-0.  And two of those losses came to the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers.  One was by 6 points and they also lost to the Pelicans by 3 points.  So they have been competitive in all but one game this season.

The Utah Jazz appear to be overvalued in the early going.  They are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They suffered upset losses to the Timberwolves as 9-point favorites and the Suns as 4-point favorites.  They also only beat the Thunder 110-109 as 9-point favorites.

The Spurs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off two or more consecutive losses.  The Jazz 5-21-2 ATS in their last 28 games as favorites.  San Antonio is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as a home underdog.  The Spurs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 home meetings with the Jazz.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +5

The Sacramento Kings want revenge from a 119-122 loss as 5.5-point dogs on New Year's Eve to the Houston Rockets.  They don't have to wait long to get it as they will get to face the Rockets again in Houston just two days later here Saturday.

I have been very impressed with the Kings this season.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS despite playing all five games as underdogs against a tough schedule.  They upset the Nuggets twice and the Suns once and were obviously competitive against the Rockets.  This is one of the most underrated, young talented teams in the NBA early in the season.

I just don't like the mindset of the Houston Rockets right now.  James Harden doesn't know if he wants to be there, and they're trying to implement a bunch of new pieces they acquired in the offseason.  Plus COVID struck the team so they haven't had much practice time together.  And it has shown with a 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS start this season.

The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Houston is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Kings Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7

This is a great spot to back the San Antonio Spurs.  They want revenge from a 107-121 loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, and they don't have to wait long to get it.  Now they are 7-point underdogs in the rematch and will be the more motivated team here.  

I expect the defending champion Lakers to relax, while the Spurs will have the gas pedal down for four quarters.  And there's a decent chance the Spurs get back LaMarcus Aldridge, who sat out the first meeting with a knee injury.  Either way, I like the Spurs to cover as Aldridge has actually not been great from an analytical standpoint.  There's also a chance LeBron James sits as he is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Spurs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games off two or more consecutive losses.  The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  San Antonio is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  Roll with the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers -7.5

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are a blown 17-point lead against the Celtics from being 4-0 this season.  First-year head coach Nate Bjorkgren is doing a tremendous job with this team.

Of course, it helps that the Pacers have their two best players healthy this season, which wasn't the case last year.  Victor Oladipo (22.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG) and Domantas Sabonis (21.8 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 7.3 APG) are two of the more underrated players in the NBA and off to fast starts.  Malcolm Brogdon (20.8 PPG, 6.5 APG) is also healthy this season after missing some time last year.

The Cavaliers are overvalued after starting 3-1 this year.  Their three wins came against Charlotte, Detroit and Philadelphia.  They then lost 86-95 to the Knicks last time out.  And the Cavaliers now have a lot of injury problems that they didn't have to start the season.  They will be without Kevin Love, Dylan Windler, Isaac Okoro, Kevin Porter Jr. and Matthew Dellavedova.

Indiana has won four of its last five meetings with Cleveland all by 7 points or more.  The Pacers are 22-9-2 ATS in the last 33 meetings.  Cleveland is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after covering three of its last four ATS coming in.  The Cavaliers are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Pacers Thursday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +8

The Dallas Mavericks are overvalued off their shocking 124-73 win over the Clippers last time out.  They had lost 115-138 to the Lakers and 102-106 to the Suns in their two prior games, so it came out of nowhere.  And the Mavericks are still without Kristaps Porzingis, so they probably shouldn't be favored by 8 points against anyone.

The Hornets are 1-2 SU this season with an impressive 106-104 win over the Nets as 11.5-point dogs to flash their potential.  They only lost 107-109 to the Thunder and 114-121 to the Cavs, so they were competitive in both losses.  And I expect them to be competitive here against the Mavericks and stay within this 8-point spread.

The Hornets are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Charlotte is a perfect 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog.  The Hornets are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Mavericks are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games following a win.  Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Bucks/Heat TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Milwaukee Bucks after opening the season 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS.  They lost on banked 3-pointer by the Celtics just before the buzzer.  They crushed Golden State 138-99 to flash their potential.  And the buy low opportunity comes from their 110-130 loss at New York as 13-point favorites.  

Now the Bucks are just 5-point favorites over the Miami Heat tonight.  They want revenge on the Heat after getting upset by them in the playoffs last year with their season coming to an end at the hands of Miami.  Plus, they won't have to face Miami's best player in Jimmy Butler, who is out with an ankle injury.

Milwaukee is 31-16 ATS in its last 47 games following a SU loss.  The Bucks are 45-27 ATS in their last 72 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Bucks are 27-12 ATS in their last 29 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Take the Bucks Tuesday.

20* Blazers/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +4

The Los Angeles Lakers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a win over Minnesota yesterday.  They could decide to sit both Lebron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (calf) given the situation.  Both are listed as questionable.

Either way, the Blazers will be highly motivated to take on the defending champs tonight.  I know we'll get a big effort from them, especially after losing in five games to the Lakers in the playoffs last year, so they will have revenge in mind.  And they are starting out 2020-21 very healthy with the Big 3 of Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic all playing big minutes in each of their first two games this season.

The Blazers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 meetings in Los Angeles.  The Lakers are 12-27 ATS in their last 39 home games after leading their previous game by 20-plus points at halftime.  Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  Take the Blazers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +2.5

The Indiana Pacers played great in the preseason for new head coach Nate Bjorkgren.  They are going with a faster-paced style and a lot of 3-pointers.  And they won 121-107 over the Knicks in their opener despite making only 8-of-34 (23.5%) of their 3-point attempts.  

This is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA with a ton of talent and depth.  Five different players scored in double figures against the Knicks led by 32 from Sabonis, who is an All-Star who missed significant time last season.  As did Oladipo (22 points) and Brogdon (21), who are both healthy to start the season.  And Turner (10) and Warren (5) were huge contributors last year.  McDermott (13), McConnel (5) and the Holiday brothers (13 combined) provide some great production off the bench.

The Pacers came back yesterday and crushed the Bulls 125-106 as a premium pick for us.  They shot 56% as a team but just 35% from 3-point range.  And their starters played limited minutes with nobody getting more than 33 minutes, so they should still be fresh here for the Celtics.

This is a Boston team that just lost 95-123 to the Brooklyn Nets last time out.  The Celtics really missed PG Kemba Walker as they will be a team to fade until he returns.  Not to mention they lost Gordon Hayward this offseason.  They are too reliant on Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to provide their offense.  I'll gladly back the deeper Pacers who play well together as a team.  Take the Pacers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers played great in the preseason for new head coach Nate Bjorkgren.  They are going with a faster-paced style and a lot of 3-pointers.  And they won 121-107 over the Knicks in their opener despite making only 8-of-34 (23.5%) of their 3-point attempts.  

This is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA with a ton of talent and depth.  Five different players scored in double figures against the Knicks led by 32 from Sabonis, who is an All-Star who missed significant time last season.  As did Oladipo (22 points) and Brogdon (21), who are both healthy to start the season.  And Turner (10) and Warren (5) were huge contributors last year.  McDermott (13), McConnel (5) and the Holiday brothers (13 combined) provide some great production off the bench.

The Bulls are in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Billy Donavan.  They were blasted 104-124 by the Atlanta Hawks in their opener and trailed by as many as 37 points.  The Hawks were held to 13 points in the 4th quarter and still won by 20.  The Pacers should make easy work of them as well.  Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

20* Jazz/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -1

The Portland Trail Blazers made a big run in the bubble last year just to make the playoffs.  It showed what they could do when they are healthy, and that is the case for them to open the 2020-21 campaign here.

Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are still the cornerstones.  Jusuf Nurkic and Rodney Hood are back after serious injuries kept them off the floor for length stretches last season.  They brought back Enes Kanter and Carmelo Anthony to provide scoring punch off the bench.  And they acquired Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. to shore up their defense.  I absolutely love this team this season.

Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are cornerstones for the Jazz, but I'm not a huge fan of the rest of their team.  Joe Ingles and Mike Conley are old.  As is one of their biggest acquisitions in Derrick Favors, who spent 8.5 seasons in Utah before getting traded to New Orleans.

Portland is 37-16 SU in its last 53 home meetings with Utah.  The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Jazz.  The home team won all three meetings last season.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

15* Clippers/Lakers NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5

The Los Angeles Lakers should come out hitting on all cylinders.  They won the NBA title last year and return all their key pieces from that team plus add in some nice players, including former Clipper Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol.  Not to mention last year's top draft pick Talen Horton-Tucker had a monster preseason with 20.5 PPG and 53.8% 3-point shooting as the Lakers cruised to a 4-0 record.

Things didn't go near as smoothly for the Clippers in the preseason.  They went 0-3 and lost to the Lakers twice 81-87 and 106-131.  And they played their starters more minutes in those games than the Lakers did.  The Clippers also lost 105-125 to the Jazz.  They are trying to implement several new players and things will probably start poorly for them this season, starting with this showdown with the Lakers.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6 

The Los Angeles Lakers got a monster game from Lebron James and a solid one from Anthony Davis in Game 5 and still couldn’t beat the Heat.  That’s a great sign for the resilient Heat moving forward in this series. 

Once again, the Heat are catching too many points in Game 6.  They were only getting 4.5 in Game 1, and oddsmakers have adjusted their lines drastically since.  They have gone 3-0-1 ATS in the last four games in this series while being anywhere from a 6 to 10-point dog.  And now they are 6-point dogs for Game 6. 

Amazingly, the Lakers have made more 3-pointers than the Heat in four of five games in this series.  They were tied at 14 apiece in Game 5, but the Lakers have still made 12 more 3-pointers in this series than the Heat.  And Miami is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA, while the Lakers are one of the worst.  Maybe this is finally the game the Heat make more, even though they’ve proven they don’t need to to hang in this series. 

Miami is 15-4 ATS in all playoff games this season.  The Heat have bee grossly underrated all postseason, and they continue to be in Game 6 tonight.  It has to be deflating to LeBron to play as well as he did in Game 5 and still come up short.  It’s going to give Miami belief, and it’s going to give LeBron and company doubt.  Bet the Heat in Game 6 Sunday. 

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +7.5

The Miami Heat were 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 of this series.  They are now 7.5-point dogs in Game 5.  There’s value with the Heat, just as there has been in each of the last three games as they were 7.5, 9 and 10-point dogs.  They went 2-0-1 ATS in those three games.

The remarkable part about this series is that the Heat are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA while the Lakers are one of the worst.  But the Lakers have made more 3-pointers than the Heat in every game thus far and lead with 59 makes compared to just 45 for the Heat.  I guess you could say the Heat are due to out-shoot them.

Getting Bam Adebayo back for Game 4 was huge for the Heat and it was a one-possession game almost the entire way.  He has two more days to recover and heal up now after they last played on Tuesday.  The Heat won’t go down without a fight, and I love them catching 7.5 points in this elimination game.  Miami is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Friday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +7.5

What’s amazing is that the Miami Heat still won Game 3 despite making fewer 3-pointers than the Lakers for a 3rd straight game.  They won in blowout fashion even 115-104.  At some point the Heat being the 2nd-best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is going to show in this series.

The Lakers have now made 45 3-pointers in this series compared to just 34 for the Heat.  This should even itself over the course of the remainder of the series considering the Lakers are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.

And there’s good news on the horizon for the Heat as Bam Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for this game, and he’s likely to play.  His defense on the inside is huge for this team.  And it makes sense that this line has went from 9.5 down to 7.5 for Game 4 with his expected return.

It’s still too high, and there’s not 7.5 points difference between these two teams.  Keep in mind the line was 4.5 for Game 1.  Bet the Heat in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +9.5

The Miami Heat are the better 3-point shooting team than the Lakers in this series.  Yet, the Lakers have out-shot them in both of the first two games of this series.  I have to think the Heat will shoot better than the Lakers in 3 tonight with the law of averages.

The Lakers made 15 3-pointers in Game 1 compared to just 11 for Miami.  In Game 2, the Lakers made 16 while the Heat made only 11.  And the Heat are having to go small ball now and put more shooters on the floor with their injuries.  But there is a chance they get Adebayo back tonight, which would be huge for them.

The Heat are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss.  Miami is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Miami is 23-8 ATS off a loss this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Sunday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat +10

This is too big of an adjustment for the injuries to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic.  The Heat go from being 4.5-point dogs in Game 1 to 10-point dogs in Game 2 with the news that Adebayo and Dragic are both doubtful.

The Heat have been one of the deepest teams in the NBA all season.  So they have the depth to overcome these injuries, and more importantly the heart to overcome them.  You know Jimmy Butler will do more, and I expect his supporting cast to follow his lead in this game.

The Heat are a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  They winning SU by an average of 9.0 points per game in this spot.  The Heat are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss dating back further.  Bet the Heat in Game 2 Friday.

20* Heat/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on Miami +5

The Miami Heat have been the most impressive team in the playoffs.  They dismantled the Pacers in four games, the Bucks in five and the Celtics in six.  They just play so well together as a team and don’t have a weakness.

The Los Angeles Lakers pretty much cruised their way to the NBA Finals.  They faced a banged up Blazers team, a Rockets team that couldn’t handle their size, and a Nuggets team that was running on fumes after two seven-game series but still gave them a run for their money.

Bam Adebayo is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  He is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate every season and will match up with Anthony Davis as well as anyone.  And the Heat have defenders to slow down LeBron James as much as possible in Butler, Iguodala and Crowder.  This is actually a great matchup for the Heat, and it should show starting with Game 1.

Miami is 12-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in playoff games this season.  Bet the Heat in Game 1 Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Heat ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 214.5

The Heat and Celtics have gone over the total in three straight games now.  That has forced oddsmakers to set this total 7.5 points higher than it was in Game 2, which was set at 207.  Now it’s 214.5 and the highest total of the series.  There’s definitely value with the UNDER because of it.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +5

The Denver Nuggets have erased two 3-1 deficits already in these playoffs for the first time in NBA playoff history.  And here we are again with the Nuggets in this exact same situation, a spot that they are clearly comfortable with.

And the Nuggets seem to have figured out the Lakers since Game 1.  They have shot 47.3% or better in every game in this series.  They lost at the buzzer in Game 2, won 114-106 in Game 3 and only lost 108-114 in Game 4 after the Lakers got a lot of preferential treatment from the refs down the stretch.  They shot a whopping 35 free throws in that game and that is unlikely to happen again.

Denver is 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 213.5

Oddsmakers have jacked this total up from 208.5 in Game 3 to 212 in Game 4 to 213.5 in Game 5.  There’s now ample value to bet the UNDER in Game 5 tonight and we’ll take advantage.

It’s inflated because Games 3 and 4 went over the totals.  But Game 4 was a dead nuts under until late in the game.  It was 50-44 at halftime and it took a bunch of 3-pointers and fouls in the final minutes to get over the number.  That’s unlikely to happen again.

Elimination games are always more tense, which brings to the table more of a half-court game and poor shooting.  It also amps up the defense for both teams as one is trying to advance to the NBA Finals, while the other is fighting to stay alive.

The UNDER is 12-5 in Celtics last 17 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Celtics last seven games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six games following a SU loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +6

The Denver Nuggets are so resilient.  They came up with a big effort in Game 2 as 5.5-point dogs and lost at the buzzer, 103-105.  And they rebounded with a 114-106 victory as 5.5-point dogs in Game 3.  Now they are catching 6 points in Game 4 tonight.

The Nuggets are now 11-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  I’m not about to go against this trend, instead I’ll back it as Denver continues coming up big when behind tonight.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday.

20* Celtics/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 211

The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will certainly be prepared for each other heading into Game 4.  After all, they’ve had three days off in between games to practice and prepare.

That’s going to favor the UNDER big-time in Game 4 tonight.  It already favors defense the longer a series goes on, but that will especially be the case in this series with this delay in action.

In Game 3 the refs were whistle-happy and sent both teams to the free throw line 30-plus times.  The Heat were 28-of-34 from the charity stripe, while the Celtics were 26-of-30.  They had shot just 38 combined free throws in Game 2 and that went up to 64 in Game 3.  There won’t be nearly as many fouls called in Game 4 tonight.

The UNDER is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last four games following a loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Denver +6.5

The Denver Nuggets have been the comeback kids in these playoffs, and being down 0-2 won’t phase them at all.  They overcame two 3-1 deficits to win the first two series for the first time in NBA history.

The Nuggets really showed they could play with the Lakers in Game 2 in their 103-105 loss at the buzzer.  They have also proven they are a matchup problem for the Lakers as they shot 49.4% in Game 1 and 47.3% in Game 2.  

They are getting to the rim, but they haven’t shot the 3-pointer to their potential yet, making fewer than 10 in each of their first two games.  They made 9 in Game 1 and just 8 in Game 2. Look for them to get double-digit 3-pointers in Game 3 tonight.

Denver is 10-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Tuesday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Denver +7.5

The Denver Nuggets were clearly tired coming off two seven-game series in Game 1.  They did not play well, and the Lakers blitzed them for a 126-114 win.  Look for the Nuggets to bounce back in Game 2 and make a game of this.

The Nuggets are used to being down and probably are more comfortable in this role now after overcoming two 3-1 deficits.  They will have the belief, and they did find plenty of holes in the Lakers’ defense in Game 1 as they shot 49.4% front the field.  

But they only made 9 3-pointers, which was one of their lowest totals of the playoffs.  And they turned the ball over 16 times, which was likely due to fatigue.  Look for them to be much sharper in Game 2 tonight.

Denver is 9-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last two seasons.  The Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Take the Nuggets Sunday.