20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +6 

The Detroit Pistons have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their four wins have come by an average of 16.3 points per game.  They now sit at 26-29 on the season and in 8th place in the Eastern Conference, a game ahead of the Miami Heat. 

Now the Pistons are rested and ready to go tonight wanting to carry their momentum into the All-Star Break as this is their final game prior to the break.  The Pistons will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days and will be laying it all on the line to get a win in Boston.  And they are as healthy as they’ve been all season, which has been a key to their great play of late. 

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics are ripe for the picking.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a huge win in Philadelphia last night.  That sets them up for a letdown spot as well after pulling the upset.  And the Celtics will be without Kyrie Irving tonight, plus key backup PG Terry Rozier is doubtful. 

Detroit won 113-104 at home as 2-point dogs and only lost 105-108 as 8.5-point road dogs in its last two meetings with Boston this season.  The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Detroit is 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Boston.  The Pistons are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Celtics are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They are coming off four straight losses straight up and seven straight ATS losses.  But they’ve faced a brutal road schedule with four straight losses at Sacramento, Golden State, Portland and Utah.  And it’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight. 

Now, the Spurs face a team they can handle in the Memphis Grizzlies, who are just 23-34 this season.  But the Grizzlies are getting some respect from oddsmakers as they have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  But their three wins came against the Pelicans, Timberwolves and Knicks, while they lost by 22 at Oklahoma City. 

The Spurs also have had some time to rest and recover as they come in on two days’ rest.  The Grizzlies clearly signaled they were tanking when they traded away Marc Gasol and Garrett Temple, and they still have a ton of injuries to deal with right now with Kyle Anderson and Omri Casspi out.  They just don’t have the horses now to compete with a team the caliber of San Antonio. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 points or more in their last there games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games are 41-12 (77.4%) ATS since 1996. 

The Spurs lost 86-96 at Memphis in their last meeting.  Well, that sets the Spurs up for a great spot tonight.  San Antonio is 16-1 ATS when revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more.  Take the Spurs Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +12 

Because the Milwaukee Bucks are 41-14 SU & 32-21-2 ATS this season and have the best record in the Eastern Conference, they are starting to warrant a lot of respect from the betting public.  When that happens, these teams become overvalued, and I think that’s the case for the Bucks right now. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on the Bucks, who are now being asked to go on the road and lay a whopping 12 points to the Chicago Bulls.  This is a Bulls team that is not obviously tanking like some of these other teams with bad records.  In fact, they probably have the most talent of any of the perceived tanking teams. 

In their last five games alone, the Bulls have gone o the road and pulled off some impressive blowout upset victories.  They went into Miami and won by 16 as 10.5-point dogs and they won at Brooklyn by 19 as 8-point dogs.  And they just added more talent before the trade deadline by snagging Otto Porter Jr. from the Washington Wizards.  I now like this lineup of Porter Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Zach Lavine, Kris Dunn and Robin Lopez quite a bit. 

Chicago only lost 113-116 as 15-point road dogs in its last meeting with the Bucks in Milwaukee.  The Bucks are 26-50 ATS in their last 76 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - who score more than 102 PPG against an opponent that gives up more than 102 PPG, after scoring 90 points or less are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets +5.5 

I believe the Indiana Pacers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Pacers, who are missing Victor Oladipo and have managed to play well without him of late, but it won’t continue for much longer. 

The Charlotte Hornets are battling to get into the playoffs at 28-29 this season.  They have played some of their best basketball of the season of late, going 8-5 SU & 7-5-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And they come in fresh and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  Charlotte has two days off after this, so it will be 100% zoned in and focused on beating Indiana tonight. 

Indiana is a tired team right now as it will be playing its 8th game in 13 days.  Plus, the Pacers could easily be looking ahead to their huge showdown with Milwaukee at home on Wednesday.  And both Myles Turner and Doug McDermott are questionable to play tonight for the Pacers. 

The Pacers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five gams after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Take the Hornets Monday. 

20* Lakers/76ers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +7 

Once again, LeBron James and the Lakers are big road underdogs to one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference.  We saw how that worked out on Thursday as the Lakers pulled the upset at 9.5-point road dogs at Boston.  And now they’ve had two days’ rest to get ready for the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The 76ers are a team in transition right now after just making the trade for Tobias Harris.  While it was a good trade and will work out for them in the long run, it’s going to take some time to implement him into their scheme.  There’s only one ball to go around, and it will be an interesting dynamic for a while with four guys who like to have the ball in their hands in Simmons, Butler, Emdiid and now Harris.  Plus, Embiid could sit today with an illness. 

The Lakers want to avenge their 105-121 home loss to the 76ers as 7.5-point dogs on January 29th less than two weeks ago.  But neither LeBron nor Kyle Kuzma played in that game.  And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. 

The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Philadelphia.  The road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Lakers are 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 120 points or more this season. Philadelphia is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Lakers Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Mavericks +4.5 

The Dallas Mavericks continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers today.  This despite the fact that they’ve been one of the best home teams in the league, going 19-8 SU & 19-8 ATS at home this season.  Not to mention, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall coming in. 

Portland is just 10-13 SU & 10-13 ATS on the road this season.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late.  The home team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings.  Dallas won 111-102 as 2-point favorites and 115-109 as 7-point dogs in its last two home meetings with Portland. 

Dallas is 11-2 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Mavericks are 14-4 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  The Mavericks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 meetings with Portland and 7-2 ATS in its last nine home meetings.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -11.5 

The New York Knicks are more blatantly tanking than any other team in the NBA.  They just suffered their 15th straight loss last night in a 103-120 setback at Detroit.  They has just lost to the Pistons the game before, so you’d think they would show some pride.  Nope.  Now the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back with a short-handed roster. 

The Knicks have also lost 23 of their past 24 and 28 of their past 30 to fall to an NBA-worst 10-44.  Not to mention, New York has lost 15 straight home games.  They haven’t even been competitive lately as each of their last five losses have come by 12 points or more.  And that’s all it would take for the Raptors to cover tonight. 

Toronto is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with an 18-point home win over the Clippers, a 12-point road win at the 76ers and an 18-point road win at the Hawks.  Look for them to make easy work of the tanking Knicks tonight. 

Toronto is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with the Knicks with all five wins coming by 13 points or more and by an average of a whopping 20.6 points per game.  The Raptors are 14-4 ATS in road games off two straight wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet the Raptors Saturday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +8 

It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Milwaukee Bucks, who have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATSin their last five games overall.  But the only impressive win was their road win at Toronto while the other four wins came against teams with losing records.  And the Bucks are banged up right now with Giannis likely to play in spite of a knee injury, but Khris Middleton, Donte DiVincenzo and Nikola Mirotic are all out. 

Now the Bucks have to go on the road and face a Dallas Mavericks team that has been undervalued at home all season.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 19-7 SU & 19-7 ATS at home this year.  They don’t have to win this game to cover, they just have to stay within 8 points.  I realize Luka Doncic is questionable, but he has been listed as questionable a lot this season and seems to play every time.  I think that will be the case again tonight. 

The Mavericks aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers despite going a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  And they want revenge from a 10-point loss at Milwaukee as 10.5-point dogs on January 21st which started this streak.  Now they are catching 8 points at home in the rematch when if you adjust for home-court advantage they should only be catching 4.5 to 5.5 points.  That just shows how overvalued the Bucks are right now. 

The Mavericks are 14-3 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season, and they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog this season.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bucks.  Add the 9-1, 8-0, 7-0 & 6-0 systems together and we have a 30-1 system backing Dallas tonight.  Roll with the Mavericks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9 

I like the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They will want revenge on the Nets, who they have already lost to three times this season.  So they’ll be looking to avoid the season sweep.  And they just played the Nets on January 29th in a 117-122 road loss as 6.5-point dogs.  And now they are catching 9 points in the rematch, which is simply too much. 

The Bulls are rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  And they just traded for Otto Porter Jr., who could make his debut tonight and will add to an already very talented roster.  We should get a big effort from the Bulls, who have been impressive in their last four road games, upsetting Miami by 16 and Cleveland by 16 and only losing by 5 to Brooklyn and by 7 at Charlotte. 

The Nets are banged up right now.  They are missing Spencer Dinwiddie and Jared Dudley.  Yes, Caris LeVert is expected to return from a two-month absence, but he won’t play much tonight.  And this is certainly a tired Nets team as they will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.   

The Nets are coming off two huge games against the Bucks and Nuggets, and have Toronto on deck, so this is a sandwich spot as well.  They won’t be all that motivated to beat the Bulls for a 4th time this season.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bulls Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been playing some very competitive basketball of late.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last four games overall, which includes upset victories over the Bulls as 5-point dogs and the Wizards as 8-point dogs.  They also only lost by 6 to Miami as 8.5-point dogs and by 7 to Boston as 10-point dogs. 

The Wizards have no business being this big of favorites over the Cavaliers.  They just traded away their second-best player in Otto Porter Jr.  They clearly aren’t concerned with winning too many games moving forward.  The Wizards are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes upset losses to the Cavs and Hawks, and three blowout losses by 13 points or more. 

The Cavs are rested and ready to go, too.  They will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days today.  The Wizards are a tired team as they will be playing their 9th game in 16 days and they play again tomorrow night in Chicago.  It’s just a mentally, beat down team right now that is way too vulnerable to be asked to win this game by double-digits to beat us tonight. 

Washington is 2-10 ATS after allowing 130 or more points this season.  The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days’ rest.  The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -1.5 

The Orlando Magic are playing some great basketball right now.  They are flying under the radar because they have had some tough luck in close games.  Each fo their last eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer, including five by 5 points or less.  And their last three wins have come by an average of 13 points per game.  So, despite being 5-8 in their last 13 games, they have actually only been outscored by one point during this stretch. 

Minnesota is struggling right now due to injuries.  They are missing their top three guards in Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones, as well as key 3-and-D man Robert Covington.  The Timberwolves are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their only win coming at home against lowly Memphis 99-97 in overtime. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series recently as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  And Orlando basically just has to win to cover tonight.  That shouldn’t be a problem against a Timberwolves team that is just 8-18 SU on the road this season. 

Minnesota is 21-51 ATS in its last 72 games off a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Memphis was basically missing everyone, and still beat Minnesota last time out.  The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Orlando is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 meetings with Minnesota, including 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +3 

The Sacramento Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  Their win total was 24.5 coming into the season.  They already have 28 wins and surpassed their win total two weeks ago.  Sacramento fans are excited about this team and continue to pack the Golden 1 Center because of it. 

That’s why the Kings have had so much success at home of late.  Indeed, the Kings are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.  Their only loss came to the Warriors by 4 as 8-point dogs.  They have upset the likes of the Blazers, 76ers and Spurs at home during this stretch. 

Now I expect the Kings to upset the Rockets, who are still without Clint Capela and could be without Eric Gordon, who is questionable.  The wear and tear on James Harden is starting to show despite the fact that he keeps putting up big numbers.  The Rockets are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 

I expect both Willie Cauley-Stein and Marvin Bagley to dominate the paint with Capela out, which is going to be a key to victory here.  Bagley has missed 14 games due to injury, but they’ve been a different team since he returned.  Bagley is averaging 17.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game in his last six games as he’s had his minutes steadily increase. 

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Houston is 3-13 ATS in road games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 110 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 2-11 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Sacramento is 15-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, including 10-2 ATS at home when he line is +3 to -3.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -4.5 

The Dallas Mavericks made the trade with the Knicks at a great time.  They’ve been off since Saturday, February 2nd.  That has allowed their new players from the Knicks to get in some important practice time and get accustomed to their new city.  They should come out like gangbusters tonight against the Charlotte Hornets. 

While the Mavericks are on three days’ rest, the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days.  This is a tired Hornets team that will also be without backup PG Tony Parker, who suffered a back injury last night against the Clippers. 

The Mavericks have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.  They are 18-7 SU & 18-7 ATS at home.  The Hornets are just 7-18 SU & 11-14 ATS on the road, giving up a whopping 115.4 points per game on 48% shooting on the highway.  Dallas beat Charlotte 122-84 on the road in their first meeting this season. 

The Mavericks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Dallas is 13-3 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in home games off a win this season.  The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Grizzlies UNDER 207 

The injuries the Timberwolves and Grizzlies are dealing with right now are getting comical.  These injuries have affected these teams offensively more than anything, especially the Timberwolves.  Minnesota is without its top three guards in Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones.  They are also without Robert Covington. 

The Grizzlies are without Kyle Anderson, Omri Casspi, Garrett Temple, Dillon Brooks and Chandler Parsons.  They’ve managed to stay competitive recently despite these injuries, but they’ve really had to slow the pace down and win with defense.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall with combined scores of 187, 196, 192 and 180 points. 

The Grizzlies and Timberwolves always seem to play in low-scoring games.  In fact, they have combined for 207 or fewer points in nine straight meetings, making for an 8-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 207-point total set.  And they just played each other on January 30th in a 99-97 (OT) victory by the Timberwolves.  That game was tied 93-93 at the end or regulation for 186 combined points.  And these teams are obviously very familiar with one another now, which favors another low-scoring game. 

Memphis is 9-1 UNDER at home with ta line of +3 to -3 this season.  The Grizzlies are 11-1 UNDER off two consecutive road games this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Timberwolves last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 

The Indiana Pacers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, not to mention their 5th different city in 7 days.  This is about as tough of a situation as you will find in the NBA. 

Making matters worse for the Pacers is that they just recently lost their best player in Victor Oladipo.  They have been able to get by the Pelicans and Heat for their two wins since losing him, but are still just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games without him.  They don’t have the firepower to beat the Lakers tonight without him given the tough rest spot. 

The Lakers come in rested and ready to go on two days’ rest.  LeBron James is healthy now and rested last game, so he will be primed for a big effort.  And the Lakers are about as healthy as they’ve been all season right now as the only key player they are missing right now is Lonzo Ball, but his absence is not too big of a deal now with a healthy Rajon Rondo. 

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Lakers) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -2 

The New Orleans Pelicans are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here as only 2-point underdogs to the Indiana Pacers.  It’s because they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with covers against Houston, Denver and San Antonio.  But they trailed by 20-plus points in the 4th quarter against the Spurs before Popovich pulled starters and they made a big comeback. 

Those three covers were surprising because the Pelicans are missing five of their six best players in Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton and E’Twuan Moore.  It’s possible to play well for a few games without so many players, but in the long run it’s going to catch up to them.  And I think it catches up to them tonight. 

The Pacers picked up their first win since losing Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury with an impressive 95-88 win at Miami last time out.  But keep in mind they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 games and their only home game was against Golden State.  This will be their easiest test here since losing Oladipo, and I look for them to take advantage by burying the short-handed Pelicans. 

Indiana is 30-9 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 5-15 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 3-12 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season.  New Orleans is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games off an ATS win.  Roll with the Pacers Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks -7 

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the best team in the NBA this season.  They are 38-13 on the year.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  They simply have not weaknesses. 

The Brooklyn Nets are extremely vulnerable right now due to injuries.  They are without Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Allen Crabbe and Jared Dudley.  Joe Harris is questionable tonight with a hip injury.  They lost by 13 at Orlando last time out, and I just don’t think they have enough firepower with all of these injuries to keep up with the Bucks tonight. 

Milwaukee won its lone meetings with Brooklyn 129-115 this season.  They led by 19 at halftime and coasted in the second half.  The Bucks are 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Nets with their 11 wins coming by an average of 12.2 points per game. 

The Bucks are 16-4 ATS in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last three seasons.  Milwaukee is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Bucks are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Brooklyn.  Milwaukee is 24-8-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings overall.  Take the Bucks Monday. 

20* 76ers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +3.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are in the ultimate letdown spot.  They just ended the Warriors’ winning streak with a 113-104 road victory as 8-point underdogs.  After beating the defending champs, there’s no chance the 76ers show up tonight in Sacramento.  They probably spent the last couple nights partying celebrating that victory. 

Making matters worse for the 76ers is the fact that they’ll be without two starters tonight in J.J. Redick *18.3 PPG) and Wilson Chandler (6.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG).  The 76ers lack a bench, so without those two they’ll be extremely short-handed.  And the Kings will test them because they play at the 2nd-fasted pace in the NBA. 

The Kings are rested and ready to go as they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Sacramento has been playing really well at home of late, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  They won by 22 over Atlanta, by 8 over Portland, by 7 over Charlotte, by 10 over Detroit, by 16 over Orlando and only lost by 4 to the Warriors as 8-point dogs. 

The Kings are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Philadelphia is 4-14 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Sacramento is 11-3 ATS in home games off a home game this season. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Philadelphia) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Kings Saturday.   

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2 

It’s safe to say the Orlando Magic will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday night.  They have lost twice to Brooklyn in the last two weeks 115-117 at home and 110-114 on the road.  Those were both gut-wrenching losses.  They want revenge in a big way tonight. 

The Nets are coming off a tough 114-117 loss at San Antonio.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat, and they certainly won’t be all that motivated to beat the Magic for a 3rd time in two weeks.  It’s also a sandwich game for them with the Milwaukee Bucks on deck, a game they could easily be looking ahead to. 

The Nets are without Caris LeVert, Allen Crabbe, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jared Dudley.  The Dinwiddie loss is huge because he single-handedly beat the Magic the first time these teams played.  What made the Nets so dangerous was having Dinwiddie (17.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) and D’Angelo Russell (19.6 PPG, 6.4 APG) being interchangeable.  Russell now has to do too much. 

Orlando is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four Saturday games.  Brooklyn is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday games.  The favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Magic Saturday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -6 

The Charlotte Hornets are coming off one of their worst losses of the season.  They lost 94-126 at Boston last time out.  Now they return home highly motivated for a victory against the struggling Memphis Grizzlies. 

This is a Grizzlies team that is just 2-16 SU & 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  It’s also a Grizzlies team that is looking to trade its two best players in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.  Not to mention, Conley is unlikely to play with a knee injury, and both Garrett Temple and Omri Casspi are out.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable with a quad injury as well. 

The Hornets simply own the Grizzlies.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with them with the four wins coming by a whopping 24.0 points per game.  That includes their 118-107 win in Memphis in their first meeting this season.  This is a tired Grizzlies team that will be playing their 9th game in 15 days, while the Hornets will be playing just their 5th game in 12 days. 

Memphis is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.  The Hornets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Friday games.  Memphis is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing a road game this season.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* Bucks/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto -2.5 

The Toronto Raptors lost their first two meetings this season with the Bucks.  But they won their 3rd meeting on the road earlier this month, and now they’ll be highly motivated to even the season series in what could be a possible tiebreaker for two teams fighting for the No. 1 seed.  I look for the Raptors to get the job done at home tonight. 

Toronto is in a dream spot here having three days’ rest to get ready for the Bucks.  They last played on Sunday in Dallas.  Now they’re rested and back home, where they are 21-4 this season and outscoring opponents by 8.9 points per game. 

Milwaukee is in a much tougher spot here as it will be playing its 3rd road game in 5 days.  The Bucks are in the midst of a five-game road trip here.  And the Raptors are as healthy as they’ve been in a long time as they are now just missing Jonas Valanciunas, who is expected to return soon. 

Milwaukee is 8-18 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Toronto is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Bucks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2.5 

The Indiana Pacers are now 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS since losing Victor Oladipo to a season-ending injury.  They lost to the lowly Grizzlies, were blown out at home by the Warriors by 32, and were blown out on the road by the Wizards by 18. 

Now the Pacers are short-handed without both Oladipo and Tyreke Evans, and they have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they’ll be up against a highly motivated Orlando Magic team on the road here. 

The Magic have lost four straight, but all four came by single-digits, and each fo their last seven losses have come by 10 points or less.  They’ve simply had some tough luck in close games of late.  I look for them to take out their frustration on the short-handed, tired Pacers tonight. 

Plays against road teams (Indiana) - a good team that outscores their opponents by 3-plus points per game, after scoring 90 points or less are 81-41 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its lsat seven road games.  The Magic are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Magic Thursday. 

15* Jazz/Blazers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 218.5 

This will already be the 4th and final meeting between the Jazz and Blazers this season.  They are obviously very familiar with one another, especially after just playing on January 21st.  Each of the first three meetings in this series have seen 213 or fewer combined points. 

When you look even further back at the head-to-head history, it’s easy to see that this number has been inflated.  Indeed, the Jazz and Blazers have combined for 217 or fewer points in 11 consecutive meetings now, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the UNDER when pertaining to this 218.5-point total.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings as well. 

The Jazz rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the month of January.  The Blazers have also been solid this month, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency.  Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the league in pace this month. 

The UNDER is 15-7-1 in Jazz last 23 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Portland is 31-12 UNDER when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of its games over the last two seasons.  Quin Snyder is 51-28 UNDER vs. division opponents as the coach of Utah.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a tough six-game road trip.  They’ve had plenty of time to recover with two days’ rest and they’ll be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days tonight.  They are certainly happy to be back home, where they are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. 

Atlanta is getting too much respect for its upset win over the Clippers as 6.5-point road dogs on Monday.  But the Clippers were on the 2nd of a back-to-back and I was actually on the Hawks in that game.  I’ll gladly fade them tonight in a spot that is much better for the Kings. 

Sacramento won 146-115 in its first meeting at Atlanta.  The Kings also won 105-90 at home in their final meeting last year.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Kings are 10-2 ATS as a favorite this season, winning by 10.7 points per game on average.  Sacramento is 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. 

Atlanta is 9-24 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games overall the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 9-18 ATS off a road game this season.  Sacramento is 22-10 ATS in home games after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Sacramento is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Kings Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5 

I think this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on Orlando and ’sell high’ on Oklahoma City tonight.  The Magic are catching 5.5 points at home against the Thunder and will have an excellent chance to win this game outright, but we’ll take the points for some insurance. 

We’re buying low on a Magic team that has lost six of its last seven coming in.  But they’ve had some hard-luck losses during this stretch.  They lost by 5 in OT at Detroit, by 2 to Brooklyn, but 4 at Brooklyn, by 4 to Washington and by 5 at Houston.  The only time they lost by more than 5 during this stretch was when they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in a 10-point loss to the Bucks as 10-point dogs. 

We’ll sell high on a Thunder team that has won five straight coming in.  But the Thunder had lost five of their previous six before that.  And four of their last five wins have come by single-digits.  This is clearly a letdown spot for the Thunder as well off their huge 118-112 home win over the Bucks on Sunday.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight. 

Orlando just has a knack for playing Oklahoma City tough.  Indeed, the Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Thunder.  The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Magic Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +6 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days here.  They haven’t had two days off in a row since January 2-3.  This is a very tired Clippers team right now. 

The Atlanta Hawks are rested and ready to go.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 5th game in 13 days here tonight.  They won at Chicago 121-101 and only lost 111-120 at Portland in the first two games of this seven-game road trip. 

The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Hawks Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8.5 

The Houston Rockets are starting to wear down with James Harden having to shoulder too much of the load with both Clint Capela and Chris Paul out. And they certainly should not be 8.5-point favorites over the Magic tonight. 

The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost at home to the Nets in overtime and needed OT to beat the Lebron-less Lakers at home as well.  They lost by 28 at Philadelphia, and they needed some last-second heroics from Eric Gordon to beat the lowly Knicks by 4.  They also beat the Raptors by 2 at home during this stretch. 

The Magic just beat the Rockets 116-109 as 5.5-point home dogs on January 13th.  The Magic haven’t lost by more than 7 to the Rockets in five of their last seven meetings.  And they should be able to stay within the number here. 

Houston is 4-13 ATS after allowing 115 points or more this season.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Magic are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in their last trips to Houston.  Take the Magic Sunday. 

20* Bucks/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have won four straight coming in and are playing some great basketball.  Now they will be highly motivated to beat the best team in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. 

The Thunder are also rested and ready to go tonight coming in on two days’ rest.  The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days’ rest.   

Oklahoma City is 42-20-3 ATS in its last 65 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Milwaukee.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* Raptors/Rockets ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -1 

James Harden and the Houston Rockets are wearing down.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost in overtime at home to the Nets, needed overtime to beat the Lakers at home, lost by 28 at Philadelphia, and needed some last-second heroics to beat the Knicks on the road.  It hasn’t been a good look for them. 

Now the Rockets have to face one of the top teams in the NBA in the Toronto Raptors tonight.  This is a Raptors team that is getting healthy as they should have everyone available except Jonas Valanciunas tonight.  And it’s rare that they’ve been this healthy. 

The same cannot be said for the Rockets, who haven’t gotten much help outside James Harden, and he’s running on fumes now.  Clint Capela remains out, and Chris Paul is questionable to return tonight.  Whether he does or not, I like the Raptors because Paul won’t play much even if he does finally make his return. 

The Raptors are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets, which includes 129-113 and 115-102 upsets on the road in their two trips to Houston during this span.  Houston is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4 

I always like fading teams after playing the Golden State Warriors.  And that’s the unfavorable spot the Wizards are in tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and it’s not a hangover/letdown spot after facing the Warriors last night.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Magic tonight. 

This is a Magic team that’s highly motivated for a victory after losing four of their last five games overall.  But three of those losses were by 5 points or fewer, plus a 10-point loss to Milwaukee as 10-point dogs when they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have recent upset home wins over Boston and Houston as well. 

The Wizards are just 6-18 SU & 6-18 ATS on the road this season, getting outscoring by 9.4 points per game on average.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings. 

Washington is 3-15 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 106 or more points per game this season.  The Wizards are 2-11 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season.  Washington is 17-36 ATS in its last 53 road games dating back to last season.  Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Magic Friday. 

20* Timberwolves/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1 

The Lakers have held their own without Lebron James.  Their last three games they’ve been through the gauntlet and have fared well.  They won outright as 10-point road dogs at Oklahoma City, and they led at Houston the entire way before eventually losing in overtime as 7-point dogs.  Sure, they lost by 19 to the Warriors, but the Warriors are mowing down everyone. 

Now the Lakers have had two days’ rest since that loss to the Warriors, and they should be fresh and ready to go at home tonight against the Timberwolves.  They also could get Rajon Rondo back from injury, which would help mitigate the losses of James and Lonzo Ball.  They still have plenty of talent to beat the Timberwolves tonight. 

Minnesota is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall.  They lost by 42 at Philadelphia, were upset at home by San Antonio, and barely won by 2 as 12-point home favorites over Phoenix.  They did go into Phoenix and win and cover, but their two wins during this stretch have been against the worst team in the West in the Suns.  The Timberwolves are just 7-16 SU in road games this season, while the Lakers are 15-10 SU at home. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-2 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Timberwolves are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Roll with the Lakers Thursday. 

15* Nuggets/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -3.5 

The Utah Jazz had won six straight prior to losing to the Blazers last time out.  I like the fact that they are off a loss here because they should come back motivated at home on National TV with the Denver Nuggets coming to town tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been absolutely enormous in this series.  Indeed, the home team is 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Jazz are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. 

The Jazz also get starting PG Ricky Rubio back from injury tonight.  Denver is 2-12 ATS in road games off two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  Utah is 58-36 ATS in its last 94 home games off an upset loss as a favorite. 

Plays on home teams (Utah) - off a loss to a division opponent against a team that’s off two consecutive covers as a favorite are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -1.5 

Fading the Memphis Grizzlies is the best bet you could have made over the last month-plus.  Indeed, the Grizzlies are just 3-17 SU & 3-17 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are starting to get burnt out. 

The Grizzlies will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here.  Six of their last eight losses have come by double-digits.  And now sources say that both Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are available for trade.  I think both veterans want out of this situation, which says a lot for two stalwarts that have been in Memphis forever. 

The Hornets come in on two days’ rest, so they’ll be fresh.  They are playing well coming in.  They have won three of their last four.  They won by 15 at San Antonio as 7-point dogs, and also throttled the Kings by 19 and the Suns by 20 at home.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Indiana. 

The Hornets have had the Grizzlies’ number.  They have gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They have won five of the last six meetings straight up.  Memphis is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Grizzlies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5 

I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They blew a 20-plus point lead against the Nets at home on Friday, January 18th less than a week ago today.  They lost that game 115-117.  And now they’ll be out for revenge here while catching 6.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

The Magic are playing well enough to where they should not be this big of underdogs in this spot.  They have upset home wins over the Celtics and Rockets, and an upset road win at Atlanta by 19 in their last six games. They lost in overtime at Detroit and obviously lost by two to Brooklyn, and then had to play the Bucks the following night and were competitive throughout before losing by 10 as 10-point dogs at home. 

This has been a very closely-contested series of late, which is another reason to love getting 6.5 points.  Each of the last five meetings were decided by 7 points or less, including four by 5 points or fewer.  And it’s worth noting the Magic get arguably their best player in Aaron Gordon back from a two-game absence tonight due to injury. 

The Magic are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 10 points.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Nets here tonight and back Orlando in revenge mode.  Bet the Magic Wednesday. 

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +5 

I love the situation for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation as the Suns lost a heartbreaker to the Timberwolves 114-116 in Minnesota on Sunday.  Now they get their shot at revenge at home this time around just two days later.  I fully expect them to have their revenge. 

The Suns have played the Timberwolves tough in both meetings this series.  They won 107-99 as 7.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  And they only lost by 2 as 12-point dogs obviously two days ago.  Six players scored in double figures for the Suns in that contest. 

The Timberwolves are just 6-16 SU & 9-13 ATS on the road this season.  They are giving up a whopping 116.3 points per game on 48.1% shooting on the highway this year.  They should not be this heavily favored on the road over the Suns given their road record and the situation. 

The Suns are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Phoenix is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Timberwolves are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  Bet the Suns Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Hawks PK 

It’s safe to say the Atlanta Hawks aren’t tanking.  They have some impressive results over the last few weeks that show they can play with anyone.  And I certainly think they can beat the Magic at home tonight, especially since the Hawks are the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Hawks beat the Heat by 24 as 6.5-point home dogs on January 6th.  They followed that up with only a 3-point road loss at Toronto as 13.5-point dogs.  They upset Philadelphia as 10.5-point road dogs on January 11th.  They upset Oklahoma City as 10.5-point home dogs on January 15th.  And last time out they led the Celtics the entire way until the 4th quarter and lost by 8. 

The Magic are starting to show some fatigue.  The will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and their 9th game in 16 days.  They have lost three straight coming in and are just 5-12 SU & 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Orlando is 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games with six of those losses coming by 10 points or more.  Roll with the Hawks Monday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +11.5 

The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for a victory here Monday night.  They have lost three straight coming in and will be excited to play the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference in the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Mavericks will be rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 3rd game in 8 days. 

The Bucks are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to going 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  But now they are being asked to lay double-digits consistently, and betting on double-digit favorites in the NBA is a quick way to lose a lot of money. 

The Mavericks have owned the Bucks, going 9-2 SU & 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Their two losses came by a combined 8 points with one by 7 and one by a single point.  Asking the Bucks to have to win this game by 12 or more points to cover is simply asking too much. 

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games, in non-conference games are 40-10 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points in this situation have gone 29-6 ATS over the last five years as well.  Take the Mavericks Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -2 

The Detroit Pistons are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They needed OT to beat Orlando a few nights ago, and snuck out a 98-93 victory over the Heat at home last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Sacramento Kings tonight. 

Making matters worse for the Pistons is the fact that the Kings play at the 2nd-fasted pace in the NBA, so they will certainly test Detroit’s tired legs.  And the Pistons have some key injuries with Andre Drummond expected to miss this game, and Ish Smith questionable with a groin injury. 

The Kings come in rested an ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They had their impressive three-game winning streak come to an end with their 95-114 loss at Charlotte last time out, but that was a bad spot for them as the Hornets were out for revenge after losing to them less than a week prior in Sacramento.  I took the Hornets in that game, but I’m on the Kings tonight in a great bounce-back spot. 

Detroit is 0-7 ATS in home games when revving a loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more this season.  The Pistons are losing by 9.0 points per game in this spot.  The Kings beat the Pistons by 10 at home in their first meeting this year.  Sacramento is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, and also 20-6 ATS in its last 26 when playing on one days’ rest.  The road team is 14-6-2 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Bet the Kings Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  Playing the Pacific Northwest gives them that advantage, plus their fans are always loyal.  They have gone 19-7 SU & 16-10 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game. 

The New Orleans Pelicans are just 6-18 SU & 9-14-1 ATS on the road this season.  The Pelicans are coming off a tough 140-147 road loss to the defending champion Warriors, who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  I always like fading teams after they play the Warriors because it’s impossible for them to be as emotionally invested as they were against the Warriors, meaning it’s a hangover spot whether win or lose. 

Portland is 10-1 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  The Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Friday games.  The Blazers are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.  Roll with the Blazers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic PK 

The Orlando Magic are quietly playing real well over the past week.  They have upset home wins over Boston and Houston, and they lost in overtime at Detroit.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home games, which also includes an upset win over Toronto.  I fully expect the Magic to be able to take care of business at home tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. 

This is a big-time letdown spot for the Nets.  They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over Boston and at Houston.  They way they won at Houston makes this a letdown spot.  They forced overtime, were trailing by 7 in the extra period, and managed to go on a 10-0 run to win 145-142 over James Harden and company.  It’s only human nature to have a letdown off such a big win like that. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Magic are 8-0 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Take the Magic Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2 

I love the situation for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They return home following a tough six-game road trip in which they managed to pull off two upsets at Phoenix and at San Antonio.  And now they’ve had two full days to recover and rest. 

They have also had extra time to get ready for revenge on Sacramento.  The Hornets lost to the Kings on the 5th game of that trip 97-104 on January 12th just five days ago.  Well, they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing in Portland the previous night, so it wasn’t a good spot for them.  This is a great spot for the Hornets now. 

The Hornets are 14-8 at home this season, while the Kings are 9-11 on the road.  The Hornets have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven meetings with the Kings.  And given the chance at quick revenge here tonight, I fully expect Kemba Walker and company to get the job done at home. 

Charlotte is 10-2 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games this season.  The Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Sacramento is 16-39-3 ATS in its last 58 games when playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Hornets Thursday. 

20* 76ers/Pacers TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana -2.5 

At 29-14 this season, the Indiana Pacers are legitimately one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  They are just 2.5 games out of first place in the East.  But for two full seasons now, this team has not gotten the respect they deserve.  And I certainly think this is a cheap price on them as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. 

No team is playing better than the Pacers over the past month and a half.  The Pacers are 16-4 SU & 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They come in rested and ready to go tonight as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days with the only other game resulting in a 34-point blowout home win over the Suns. 

The 76ers are in a tough spot here.  They are coming off an emotional home win over the Minnesota Timberwolves as Jimmy Butler got revenge on his former team.  It’s a 76ers team that has been a money burner on the road, going 10-12 SU & 8-14 ATS on the highway this year while losing by 4.6 points per game.  The Pacers are 15-5 SU & 11-9 ATS at home, winning by 10.3 points per game on average. 

The Pacers are 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the 76ers, including their 113-101 road win over Philadelphia in their last meeting this season.  The 76ers are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more this season, losing by a whopping 18.9 points per game on average.  Take the Pacers Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers had the best record in the Western Conference through November.  But then they went through a rough patch with some injuries in early December.  Once Lou Williams came back, they proceeded to go on a 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run from late December through early January.   

But the Clippers have since dropped three straight games, and I expect them to be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday night when they host the Utah Jazz.  I think we’re getting good value here with the Clippers as only 1.5-point home favorites because they have lost three straight, while the Jazz have won four straight coming in.   

But those four wins for the Jazz came against the Magic, the Lebron-Less Lakers, the Bulls and the Pistons all at home.  The wins over the Bulls and Pistons in their last two games came down to the wire, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Jazz are playing without their top three point guards in Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum and Raul Neto. 

Plays against underdogs who are coming off 3 or more consecutive wins, who win between 51% and 60% of their games playing another winning team are 77-39 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Utah is 15-28 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.   I think this is a good time to 'buy low' on the Clippers and 'sell high' on the Jazz tonight.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday. 

20* Raptors/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Boston -2 

The Boston Celtics come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three straight, but all three came on the road.  Now they’re back home with Toronto coming to down on National TV.  Look for the Celtics to bounce back in a big way tonight. 

The Celtics also have some good injury news as Kyrie Irvin returns to the lineup tonight, and Marcus Smart and Aaron Baynes could both be available as well.  The Raptors are missing Jonas Valanciunas, and OG Anunoby, and could be without Fred VanVleet and C.J. Miles. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings.  The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  And Boston basically just has to win this game to cover the small 2-point spread. 

The Celtics are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 home games overall.  Boston is 12-3 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Toronto is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday. 

20* Timberwolves/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +6.5 

Jimmy Butler faces his former team in the Minnesota Timberwolves here for the first time tonight.  It’s pretty easy to see which team will be more motivated.  Butler pushed his way out, thinking the Timberwolves didn’t have the pieces to win a championship.  Well, they’ve been just fine without him, and they’ll want to prove that in a big way tonight. 

The Timberwolves are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have been playing with a ton of energy since interim coach Ryan Saunders took over for Tom Thibodeau.  And now they’ve had two days’ rest to get ready for the 76ers. 

Philadelphia is not playing well enough at all to warrant being this big of a favorite.  The 76ers are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost by 17 as 3.5-point road favorites at Washington, were upset at home by Atlanta as 10.5-point favorites, and barely escaped with a 3-point win at New York as 9-point favorites. 

Plays against home teams (Philadelphia) - in a game involving two average teams (-3/+3 PPG differential) after 42 or more games, off a close win by 3 points or less are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Timberwolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 gams vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday. 

15* Pelicans/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost two straight, which put to a halt a great run they were on in going 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 games.  I expect them to start a new winning streak with a win and cover at home over the Pelicans tonight. 

The Clippers have held serve on their home court this year, going 14-7 SU & 13-8 ATS in their 21 games in Los Angeles.  The Pelicans have really struggled on the road, going 5-17 SU & 8-14 ATS in their 22 games away from New Orleans. 

New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games this season.  The Pelicans are 3-13 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Clippers are 17-7 ATS as favorites this season.  New Orleans is 1-14 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or more of their attempts this season.  Take the Clippers Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5 

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA.  They currently sit at 22-21 and have been playing some of their best basketball here of late.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They haven’t lost a game by double-digits in any of their last 12 games, so they have been competitive night in and night out. 

I love the situation for the Kings tonight.  They are rested after having yesterday off.  The Kings play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA, so they will certainly test the tired legs of the Portland Trail Blazers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a loss in altitude in Denver last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight. 

Plays on favorites (Sacramento) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Sacramento is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  Bet the Kings Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks +10 

The Atlanta Hawks want to avenge one of their worst losses of the season to the Milwaukee Bucks just over a week ago.  They lost 112-144 at Milwaukee as 13.5-point dogs on January 4th.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch, and I expect a much better effort from them. 

The Hawks have played a lot better since that defeat.  They are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They blasted the Heat 106-82 as 6.5-point home dogs in their only home game during this stretch.  They only lost by 3 at Toronto as 13.5-point dogs, and upset the 76ers by 2 as 10.5-point road dogs.  Their only non-cover came on the 2nd of a back-to-back. 

The Bucks are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.  Giannis missed last game with a hip injury, and although he’s supposed to return tonight, I expect the Bucks to be cautious with him.  Eric Bledsoe is dealing with a hamstring injury.  The Hawks get Taurean Prince back from injury and Jeremy Lin is probable as well.  Prince (15.0 PPG) has missed the last 18 games with an ankle injury. 

Milwaukee is 1-11 ATS vs. teams who allow 110-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 25-48 ATS in their last 73 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Plays on underdogs (Atlanta) - revenging a same-season loss, off a huge upset win as a road dog of 10 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Hawks Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They enter play Saturday at 21-21 and in the thick of the playoff race in the Western Conference.  Even when they lose games, they are competitive now. 

That’s evident by the fact that their last six losses have all come by single-digits, and they have come against the likes of the Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Warriors and Suns.  Five of those six teams are playoff squads in the Western Conference.  They had a chance to win all six of those games in the closing minutes. 

The Charlotte Hornets are really struggling right now.  They are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are coming off a 96-127 loss in Portland last night, making this the 2nd of a back-to-back for them.  They are now just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last six road games, losing four times by 13 points or more.  They will now be playing their 5th consecutive road game as they continue this brutal six-game trip. 

The Kings will certainly test the Hornets’ tired legs as they play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA.  The Hornets are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Charlotte is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Kings are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents, including a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes. Roll with the Kings Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +2 

This is a very tough spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their home loss to the Dallas Mavericks last night.  And now they have to play the Pelicans, who will test their tired legs as they play at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA. 

That pace has gotten even faster since getting starting PG Elfrid Payton back from injury.  The Pelicans also get Nikola Mirotic back from injury, and now they are as healthy as they’ve been all season.  This is going to be a dangerous team moving forward, and that has already started to show as the Pelicans are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with wins by 35, 19 and 16 points. 

The Pelicans, conversely, are well-rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing on two days’ rest, and this will also be just their 4th game in 10 days.  It will be the 8th game in 14 days for the Timberwolves for comparison’s sake, so it’s easy to see them starting to wear down now. 

New Orleans is 27-13 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on two days rest.  New Orleans is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Timberwolves are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest.  Roll with the Pelicans Saturday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 

Two teams with huge home/road splits square off in Minnesota tonight.  The Timberwolves have certainly been taking care of their home court this season, going 14-6 SU & 13-7 ATS in Minnesota.  Dallas has been awful on the road, going 3-18 SU. 

The Timberwolves are playing some great basketball coming into this game.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning by 17 over Orlando and by 22 over the Lakers, both at home.  They also went on the road and upset the Thunder as 8.5-point dogs.  Yet, they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers here as only 4.5-point home favorites. 

The Mavericks are not playing well, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their only win coming at home against Phoenix, which has the worst record in the Western Conference.  They lost by 21 at Boston and by 10 at home to the Lakers.  They were down 15-plus in the 4th quarter against the 76ers but only lost by 6.  The Mavs are just 4-11 SU in their last 15 games overall. 

Minnesota is a perfect 10-0 ATS in January home games over the last two seasons.  They are outscoring the opposition by a whopping 16.6 points pre game in these January home games.  The favorite is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Timberwolves Friday. 

20* Pacers/Knicks ESPN No-Brainer on New York +9 

The Knicks have already lost twice to the Pacers this season, so they’ll be playing with double revenge.  They lost by 6 at home and by 11 on the road, so they were competitive in both games.  And now they are catching 9 points at home tonight, which is simply too much. 

The Knicks should be motivated not only for revenge, but also because this is a National TV game on ESPN, and they are rarely on National TV.  They also come in on two days’ rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go.  I expect one of their best efforts of the season tonight. 

The Pacers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They will also be playing their 5th straight road game, and in their 5th different city in 8 days.  It’s a brutal scheduling spot for them.  It’s worth noting that two of their best players are questionable to play tonight in Myles Turner (shoulder) and Darren Collison (leg). 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  The Knicks are 3-1 SU in their last four home meetings with the Pacers with their only loss coming by 6 points.  The home team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings, and Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to New York.  The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  New York is 36-17 ATS in its last 54 Friday games.  Bet the Knicks Friday. 

15* Pistons/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They have gone just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But all six losses came by single-digits as they were in every game with a chance to win in the 4th quarter.  And five of the losses have come against playoff teams in the Clippers, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets and Warriors. 

Now the Kings get a team they can handle tonight in the Detroit Pistons, who are 4-15 SU & 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  It’s a tired Detroit team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 10 days after a 100-113 road loss to the Lebron-less Lakers last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Kings, who play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA and will test their tired legs tonight. 

Sacramento is 15-6 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  The Kings are 12-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season.  Sacramento is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  Roll with the Kings Thursday. 

20* Thunder/Spurs TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 224 

The books have set the number way too high tonight in this battle between the Thunder and Spurs Thursday night.  These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and when they get together it’s usually a defensive battle as we take a look at the recent series history. 

The Thunder rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 100.4 points per 100 possessions.  The Spurs will control the tempo at home tonight, and they rank 25th in pace at 100.2 possessions per game.  And a big reason for the Spurs’ recent surge that has seen them go 13-4 in their last 17 games has been defense.  The Spurs have allowed 98 or fewer points in nine of their last 16 games.  They are giving up just 103.6 points per game at home this season. 

The Spurs and Thunder have combined for 221 or fewer points in 25 straight meetings.  That makes for a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 224.  More recently, they’ve combined for 205 or fewer points in each fo their last seven meetings, and the UNDER has gone 6-1.  They have averaged just 196.1 combined points per game in their last seven meetings, which is a whopping 28 points less than tonight’s posted total of 224.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* Clippers/Nuggets Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +6 

As long as Lou Williams has been healthy and in the lineup, the Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season.  They got off to the best record in the West after about a month with him, then he got hurt and they struggled for a few weeks.  But he returned from injury, and the Clippers have gone 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their 10 games since.  Each of their last six wins have come by 9 points or more. 

The Denver Nuggets are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  They have simply been fortunate in close games this season, which is why they are 27-12.  They are only outscoring the opposition by 5.0 points per game on the season.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Nuggets while they have the best record in the Western Conference.  They have gone just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall as they haven’t been able to meet the massive expectations they’ve set for themselves. 

The Clippers are 12-3 ATS off a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 8-0 ATS in its last eight when its opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the Clippers Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +9.5 

The Bulls are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season.  It’s no surprise that they are starting to cover some spreads and be more competitive.  Indeed, the Bulls are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall coming into this showdown with the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They are well-rested and ready to go playing on two days’ rest as well. 

The Bulls have been doing their best work on the road of late.  Chicago is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  That includes outright upsets at San Antonio 98-93 as 9-point dogs, at Cleveland 112-92 as 1-point dogs and at Washington 101-92 as 4.5-point dogs.  They also gave the Raptors are run for their money in a 89-95 loss at 10.5-point dogs. 

Portland will be playing its 4th game in 6 days tonight.  The Blazers are starting to get bored playing five of their last six games at home.  They failed to cover as 11.5-point favorites against the Knicks in their last home game, and I think they won’t be exactly excited to play the Bulls tonight, either. 

Chicago is 13-3 ATS in road games with a total of 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 19-8 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last three years.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Plays against home favorites (Portland) - who score 102 or more points pre game against a team that scores 98-102 PPG, after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games are 71-34 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 205.5 

I like taking the UNDER in games between teams who just recently played each other.  They become familiar with one another, and it favors the defenses.  The Spurs just beat the Grizzlies 108-88 at home on Saturday, January 5th for 196 combined points.  It was one of many low-scoring battles in this series recently. 

Indeed, the Spurs and Grizzlies have combined for 199 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings overall.    They have averaged 195.1 combined points per game in their last seven meetings, so we are essentially getting 10-plus points of value on the UNDER on this 205.5-point total. 

Some things in the NBA change, but the Grizzlies stay the same.  They are a team that relies on defense to win games.  The Grizzlies are 30th in the NBA in pace at 97.6 possessions per game.  The Spurs are 25th at 100.3 possessions per game, so these are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  Memphis is also 27th in offensive efficiency, but 6th in defensive efficiency. 

The Grizzlies have been held to 107 or fewer points in 19 consecutive games, including 99 or fewer in 14 of those 19.  Memphis is 16-4 UNDER off a road game this season.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Wizards UNDER 229 

I always like backing the UNDER in the second game of these home-and-home situations.  The 76ers just beat the Wizards 132-115 at home last night.  Now they will be playing in Washington in a 2nd of a back-to-back situation or both teams.  Both will be tired, and this fatigue plus the familiarity favors the UNDER. 

That 247-point outburst was a rarity between these teams as both shots lights out from the field with the 76ers hitting 55.7% and the Wizards 50%.  Each of the previous three meetings between these teams saw 221 or fewer combined points and averaged just 213.7 combined points.  I think we are getting a ton of value on the UNDER 229 in this game tonight. 

Washington is 19-9 UNDER after scoring 105 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Wizards last six following a loss by more than 10 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1 

The Miami Heat are coming off one of their worst losses of the season.  They lost 82-106 at Atlanta as 6.5-point favorites on Sunday.  It’s safe to say that the Heat will come back highly motivated for a victory tonight at home against the Denver Nuggets. 

It was clearly an aberration for the Heat, who have been playing great basketball for weeks.  Indeed, the Heat are 12-6 SU & 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  And the Heat have owned tonight’s opponent, the Denver Nuggets, in recent meetings.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Nuggets. 

Denver is in an awful spot here tonight.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days here.  They will also be playing in their 4th different city in six days.  Now they’re up against a rested Heat team that will be playing only their 4th game in 9 days.  The Nuggets won’t have much left in the tank off their 113-125 shootout loss in Houston last night. 

Miami is 11-2 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Denver is 0-7 ATS after allowing 115 points or more this season.  The Nuggets are 1-9 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS off a combined score of 235 points or more this season.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Sacramento Kings will be highly motivated for a victory at home Monday night.  They have lost four straight coming in, but all four losses came by 7 points or less to the Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets and Warriors, four playoff teams in the Western Conference.  I expect them to take out their frustrations on the lowly Magic tonight. 

This is a bad spot for the Magic, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  This is a Magic team that is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six road games with all five losses coming by 10 points or more.  They have no depth, so this back-to-back really hurt them. 

Making matters worse for the Magic is that their conditioning will really be tested against a Kings team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace at 106.3 possessions per game.  The Magic are 26th in pace at 100 possessions per game.  Sacramento will control the tempo playing at home, and Orlando won’t be able to keep up. 

The Kings have owned the Magic, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Sacramento is also 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Kings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Take the Kings Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5 

The Pelicans took out a few weeks’ worth of frustration with their 133-98 win over the Cavaliers on Saturday.  And now they look to put a winning streak together here for the first time since mid-December.  It’s time for them to turn the corner now that they are healthier than they’ve been in quite some time.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Grizzlies will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

The Pelicans should have their way with a Grizzlies team that is really struggling right now.  The Grizzlies are just 2-10 SU & 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Yet they continue getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers. The Grizzlies have been held to less than 100 points in 11 of their last 17 games, and 107 or fewer in 20 straight.   

The Grizzlies just can’t score the ball, and that’s a tough way to win in today’s NBA.  There has been some infighting as well as the Grizzlies called a players’ only meeting following their 94-101 home loss to Detroit as 6.5-point favorites.  They proceeded to lose their next two games 100-109 as 4-point home favorites against Brooklyn, and 88-108 as 8.5-point road dogs at San Antonio.  Clearly, the players’ only meeting only made things worse. 

Memphis is 0-9 ATS after trailing its previous game by 20 or more points at the half over the last two seasons.  As stated before, the Grizzlies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are back healthy and playing like they did to start the season where they at one point at had the best record in the Western Conference.  The Clippers are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They should handle the Magic with ease today at home. 

The Magic will have spent last night in Los Angeles, which is always a scary proposition.  Chances are they stayed out late and won’t be feeling 100% for this 12:35 Pacific tip.  The Magic have lost four of their last five road games by double-digits, losing by 25 at Dallas, by 10 at Chicago, by 25 at Charlotte and by 17 at Minnesota. 

The Clippers have owned the Magic in recent meetings, including their 120-95 road win as 3.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  The Clippers have now won 10 straight meetings with the Magic by an average of 13.6 points per game. 

The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Clippers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when their opponent scores more than 100 points in their previous game.  The favorite is 21-5-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  Bet the Clippers Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers +1 

I realize the Blazers are playing the second of a back-to-back here.  But they’ll be motivated after blowing a lead to the Thunder and losing 109-111.  And I don’t worry about back-to-backs with this team as much because they have one of the best benches in the NBA.  I think they can overcome the situation considering it’s an even worse spot for the Rockets. 

Indeed, the Rockets are coming off a huge, emotional win over the Warriors on a last-second 3-pointer from James Harden in OT.  They wanted revenge on the Warriors from losing in seven games to them in the Western Conference Finals last year, and they got it.  Now I fully expect them to suffer a letdown here in this clear hangover spot for them against the Blazers tonight. 

James harden has to be running on fumes right now.  He’s being asked to do so much for this team with both Chris Paul and Eric Gordon out.  And backups PG Austin Rivers is questionable tonight with a neck injury as well.  Sooner rather than later, these injuries are going to catch up to this team, and I think it’s tonight. 

Houston is 1-8 ATS in road games after playing its last game on the road this season.  The Rockets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Portland is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 home games.  I don’t expect the Rockets to show up at all tonight.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +8.5 

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Knicks right now.  That’s because they are only 1-13 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks now, which I did in their last game as they covered as 14-point dogs at Denver in a 7-point loss. 

Now the Knicks are catching 8.5 points against a Los Angeles Lakers team that is without both Lebron James and Raton Rondo, and could be without Kyle Kuzma, who left last game with a back injury and didn’t return.  It’s likely he sits this one out as well, meaning the Lakers will be without their two best players in James and Kuzma. 

Teams with Lebron James on them have now gone just 1-14 SU in the last 15 games he has missed.  The Lakers managed to blow a 4th quarter lead against the Thunder the other night as they looked lost in the final period without him.  And the Knicks are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season.  Plus, they are rested and ready to go playing on two days’ rest. 

Los Angeles tends to play to its level of competition.  The Lakers are 2-10 ATS vs. poor teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  The Knicks are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 Friday games.  Los Angeles is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  We’re getting great value on the road dog Knicks, who will be thrilled to play in Staples Center tonight on a big stage.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Blazers UNDER 223 

The Thunder and Blazers played four times last season.  They combined for 223 or fewer points in all four meetings.  They averaged just 211.5 combined points per game.  They have combined for 223 or fewer in seven of their last eight meetings over the past two seasons as well.  I just think there’s a ton of value with this UNDER tonight based on the recent head-to-head series. 

Russell Westbrook is really struggling of late for the Thunder.  He has 4-for-22, 6-for-20 and 3-for-17 performances over the past two weeks.  But he and the rest of his team are making up for it on the defensive end.  In fact, the Thunder are actually 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 99.6 points per 100 possessions.  That has been the key to their success this year. 

Oklahoma City is 10-1 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season, including 9-1 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -1 this year.  Portland is 8-1 UNDER in home games after having won four or five of their last six games this season.  The UNDER is 11-1 in Blazers last 12 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  The UNDER is 41-17 in Thunder last 58 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Thunder/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +1 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off an emotional come from behind victory over the Lebron-less Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday.  Paul George was booed for not signing with the Lakers in the offseason.  And he played his heart out, as did the rest of the team, yet the Thunder still needed a big finish in the 4th to beat the Lakers without Lebron.  This is now a clear letdown spot for them. 

The Thunder now run into a buzz saw in the Blazers, who are 3-1 in their last four games with road wins over the Warriors and Kings, and a blowout home win by 36 points over the 76ers.  Their only loss came the game after they beat Golden State as the Warriors got their revenge in a home-and-home situation.  That’s understandable. 

Portland has had one of the better home-court advantages in the NBA for years, and they are consistently undervalued at home.  The Blazers are 14-6 SU & 12-8 ATS at home this year.  And the Blazers own the Thunder, going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  They should not be home dogs to the Thunder in this matchup tonight. 

Portland is 11-1 ATS in home games after going under the total in three consecutive games over the past three seasons.  It is winning by 10.7 points per game in this spot.  The Thunder are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Portland is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 home games dating back to last season.  Bet the Blazers Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -4 

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost two straight coming in to the Spurs and 76ers.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the Phoenix Suns, who have the worst record in the Western Conference at 9-30 this season. 

The Clippers have been taking out their frustrations on the Suns for years.  Indeed, the Clippers are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They have won those 10 games by a whopping 14.3 points per game on average, and all 10 have come by 4 points or more with eight by double-digits. 

I think this line is lower than it should be simply because the Clippers only beat the Suns 123-119 on December 10th in their last meeting.  Keep in mind the Clippers were favored by 9.5 points on the road in that game, so we’re essentially getting 5.5 points of value.  And the Clippers are now as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season. 

The Clippers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 Friday games.  The Suns are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS as a favorite this season.  Phoenix is 1-12 ATS in Friday home games over the past two seasons, losing by 16.0 points per game on average.  Bet the Clippers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5 

The Timberwolves have some key injuries right now that are really hampering them.  Starting PG Jeff Teague (ankle) has been out for weeks and remains questionable to return tonight, backup PG Derrick Rose is doubtful with an ankle injury, and now Robert Covington just popped up with an ankle injury that will be keeping him out tonight. 

All these injuries have been taking their toll on the Timberwolves.  It’s no wonder they are just 4-9 SU & 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  These aren’t big names, so the injuries aren’t getting factored into the lines enough.  And once again the Timberwolves are getting too much respect tonight as 5.5-point favorites over the Magic. 

Orlando comes in playing very well going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  That includes a 29-point home win over Toronto and a 28-point road win at Chicago.  Their only loss during this stretch came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Charlotte, which is understandable.  The Magic have played their best basketball on the road this season, going 9-9 SU & 11-5-2 ATS. 

The Magic own the Timberwolves, going 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Two of those losses came in overtime.  Orlando is 7-0 ATS in road games off a road game this season.  The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Orlando is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 trips to Minnesota.  The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Magic Friday. 

15* Rockets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -8 

The Houston Rockets are without both Chris Paul and Eric Gordon tonight.  They will miss both of their playmaking ability against a team the caliber of the Golden State Warriors tonight.  I don’t give the Rockets much of a chance here because James Harden is going to have to do too much, and going one-on-one against Golden State does not work. 

The Rockets are starting to get some respect from oddsmakers because they’ve been able to win without Paul recently.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But four of those five games have come at home.  The Rockets are just 8-10 SU & 7-11 ATS on the road this season. 

The Warriors are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season, and it’s starting to show.  They got their Big 4 back and hitting on all cylinders.  They are coming off back-to-back double-digit road wins at Portland (115-105) and at Phoenix (132-109).  And now they’re rested and ready to go having two days’ rest coming in. 

Plays against underdogs (Houston) - off three or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning teams are 75-38 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets lost their final two games to the Warriors in the seven-game series last season without Paul by 29 and 9 points.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Warriors Thursday. 

20* Raptors/Spurs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on San Antonio -1.5 

The San Antonio Spurs have been flying under the radar for weeks.  They are 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And once again they are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Toronto Raptors. 

It’s a Raptors team that is already without Jonas Valanciunas and could be without Kyle Lowry, who is questionable with a back injury.  Lowry has missed eight of the past nine games, and the Raptors are just 2-7 ATS without him this season. 

I think the Spurs will be extra motivated tonight, also.  They feel like they were scorned by Kawhi Leonard, and he forced his way out of San Antonio with the trade that brought DeMar DeRozan to the Alamo city.  DeRozan will also be extra motivated, and his team will have his back here. 

The Spurs are 15-5 SU & 14-6 ATS at home this season.  San Antonio is 16-4 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 12-1 ATS in home games after covering six or seven of their last eight against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Spurs Thursday. 

15* Thunder/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6 

Lebron James is obviously worth a lot to the point spread, but not this much.  I think the books have adjusted too much.  This Lakers team still has a lot of talent without James, and they won without him pulling off the upset at home over the Kings last time out. 

Now the Lakers are rested and ready to win without him again tonight.  They will be playing on two days’ rest here after having Monday and Tuesday off.  They should be primed for a big effort against a Thunder team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 11th game in 20 days. 

The lack of rest for the Thunder is starting to show.  They have gone just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only two wins came on the road at Phoenix and at home against Dallas.  They actually trailed Phoenix in the fourth quarter before pulling away late.  And the win over the Mavs was a revenge spot after losing to the Mavs the night before. 

The Lakers are 28-15 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take the Lakers Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +1 

The New Orleans Pelicans are as healthy as they have been all season.  They’ll be a dangerous team moving forward because of it as they sit at just 17-21 and undervalued because of their record.  But that record is largely due to their lack of health. 

Anthony Davis, Nikola Mirotic and Elfrid Payton have all missed significant time this season.  But Davis is healthy, and Payton has only played in seven games but just recently returned.  They played great with him to start the season, and his absence has been big.  Mirotic is the only player on the injury report now. 

Speaking of injuries, the Nets have a plethora of them right now.  They have been without leading scorer Caris LeVert and have been without him for some time.  But now they are without two key role players in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (9.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Allen Crabbe (9.5 PPG).  The strength of this team was their depth, but now that depth is being really tested. 

The Pelicans have owned the Nets, going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  And that’s significant because they just have to win the game to cover tonight as they are actually underdogs.  This is one of the biggest line mistakes I’ve seen this season.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday. 

15* 76ers/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 

Lou Williams returned from injury and the Clippers have been playing some great basketball since.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games since Williams came back.  One of those losses was a 2-point loss at Golden State as 11-point dogs.  

I expect the Clippers to be highly motivated for a win off their upset home loss to the Spurs last time out.  They should be rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They also have two more days off following this game, so I expect them to give max effort given that this is their only game in a five-day span. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers are in a tougher spot here playing their 4th consecutive road game.  They have a 5th tomorrow night against the Suns as well, so they’ll be looking to conserve some energy and play their starters less minutes.  They are coming off an ugly 95-125 road loss to the Blazers and are just 7-11 SU & 6-12 ATS in road games this season. 

The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Los Angeles is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 home games.  Philadelphia is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 road games.  The 76ers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Clippers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14 

The Knicks could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have gone 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall coming in.  So we’ll ‘buy low’ on them, knowing that the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  That forces oddsmakers to set their lines higher than they should be, and we’re getting some great value on them as 14-point dogs now. 

The Nuggets have been overvalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, losing by 21 to the Clippers, by 8 to the Spurs, only beating the Spurs by 3 and the Suns by 4.  And now they’re being asked to lay a whopping 14 points to the Knicks tonight.  It’s simply too much. 

Plays on any team (New York) - in a game involving two teams who score at least 102 points per game, off three straight losses by 10 points or more are 54-24 (69.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mavericks/Thunder UNDER 224 

This is one of my favorite situations to bet UNDERS.  It’s a home-and-home situation.  The Mavs just played the Thunder last night in Dallas, and now they play again tonight in Oklahoma City.  Teams obviously get familiar with one another in these home-and-home situations, and it tends to be lower scoring in the 2nd meeting because familiarity favors defense. 

They only combined for 208 points last night.  And now we’re seeing a total of 224 for the rematch.  This is way too high, and there’s clearly some value with the UNDER.  That’s especially the case when you look at the head-to-head series between these teams. 

Indeed, the Mavs and Thunder have now combined for 211 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 201.8 combined points in those nine meetings, which is roughly 22 points less than this 224-point total.  It’s simply too high. 

The UNDER is 42-20-1 in Mavericks last 63 games following a win.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Mavericks last 10 Monday games.  Dallas is 21-6 UNDER off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 54-36 UNDER when revenging a loss over the last three years.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Memphis Grizzlies +5 

The Houston Rockets are already without Chris Paul.  And now they will be without Eric Gordon, who suffered a knee injury last game.  This team has been terrible without Paul, and they can’t afford to lose Gordon.  Paul and Gordon combine to average 30.3 points and 10.2 assists per game.  They just aren’t deep enough to overcome their absences. 

Memphis is fully healthy and one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They are so much better when both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are healthy, and they have added some nice pieces around them.  And this is a rested Grizzlies team that will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and only their 3rd game in 8 days. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - a well rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in December games are 44-21 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Mavericks +3 

The Dallas Mavericks have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA.  They are 14-3 at home compared to 2-15 on the road.  They should not be home underdogs to the Thunder tonight considering they are 13-4 ATS at home and winning by 8.0 points per game on average in Dallas this season. 

The Mavericks are certainly happy to be back home after playing six of their last eight on the road.  That’s a big reason why they went just 1-7 in their last eight games overall.  But they suffered several close losses to great teams along the way, losing by 4 at the Clippers, by 4 at the Warriors, by 3 at the Blazers and by 2 at the Pelicans.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win tonight to get back in the win column. 

The Mavericks have had the Thunder’s number in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  That includes 111-96 and 97-81 victories in their last two home meetings with the Thunder.  They are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with both of their losses coming by a single point.  They have outscored the Thunder by an average of 8.8 points per game in those five meetings in Dallas. 

The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games overall.  The Thunder are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 Sunday games.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Dallas is 8-0 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -3.5 

The Miami Heat are flying under the radar right now.  They have gone 10-4 SU & 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall to get to .500 on the season.  I expect them to continue to roll tonight at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The Timberwolves have started to struggle of late.  They are 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes losses to the Pistons, Hawks, Suns and Kings.  A big reason for their struggles has been the injury to starting PG Jeff Teague.  And now they are expected to be without backup PG Derrick Rose, who has been absolutely huge for them this season. 

I always like fading teams who spent Saturday night in big cities.  Well, there’s not many more distracting cities than South Beach, Miami.  You can bet these Timberwolves players were out partying last night.  They won’t be focused for this game at all.  Plus, the Timberwolves are just 4-13 SU & 7-10 ATS on the road this season. 

Minnesota is 1-9 ATS in road games after a combined score of 235 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Miami is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  The Heat are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Heat Sunday. 

20* Spurs/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3.5 

Lou Williams returned from injury and the Clippers have been rolling ever since.  They are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming 127-129 at Golden State as 11-point underdogs.  I think they continue rolling tonight as short home favorites over the Spurs. 

The spot favors the Clippers.  Both the Spurs and Clippers are on back-to-backs, but the Clippers don’t have to travel after facing the Lakers at Staples Center last night.  The Spurs do have to travel after their 99-102 loss at Denver last night in the altitude.  Playing in high elevation last night will have certainly taken its toll on the Spurs, and don’t be surprised if Greg Popovich rests a starter or two tonight. 

The Spurs have one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA.  They are 14-5 at home compared to just 5-12 on the road.  They are giving up a whopping 114.9 points per game and 48.5% shooting on the road.  The Clippers are 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS at home this year, scoring 117.3 points per game and shooting 47.6% from the floor. 

The Spurs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games following two more more consecutive ATS wins.  Los Angeles is 9-1 ATS in home games with a total of 220 or more this season.  The Spurs are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 road games overall.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Clippers Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Blazers UNDER 225 

This is one of my favorite situations to bet UNDERS.  The Warriors and Blazers are in a home-and-home situation here.  They just played at Golden State on Thursday, and now they’ll play each other again in Portland on Saturday. 

In these situations, teams are obviously familiar with one another after just playing.  And that always seems to favor the defenses.  Portland beat Golden State 110-109 (OT) on Thursday in a game that only had 204 combined points at the end of regulation.  And now the total is 225 in the rematch?  It’s simply too high. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 or more (Golden State) - revenging a loss vs. opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against an opponent that’s off an upset win as an underdog are 31-9 (77.5%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7 

It’s nice to see what the Phoenix Suns are capable of when they’re fully engaged and healthy.  And that has come to fruition here over the last couple weeks.  The Suns are 5-2 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with their two losses both coming on the road by a combined 11 points. 

They have played so well despite five of their last seven games on the road.  They have pulled off four outright upsets.  They beat the Mavs by 10 as 6-point home dogs and the Timberwolves by 8 as 7.5-point home dogs.  They also went on the road and won by 8 at Boston as 11.5-point dogs and by 2 at Orlando as 5.5-point dogs.  And now the Suns are still getting no respect from oddsmakers as 7-point home dogs tonight. 

Phoenix will be playing with triple-revenge as this will be the 4th and final meeting between these teams.  From October 28th to November 17th in a span of three weeks, the Thunder beat the Suns three times by 7, 17 and 10 points.  The Suns were not playing well at all then, but this is a different team now and they’ll be highly motivated to get a win to avoid the season sweep. 

The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Phoenix is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game.  Roll with the Suns Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +7 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Magic tonight at home.  They have lost four straight both SU and ATS and are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  And now they are catching 7 points at home because of their recent struggles.  I expect them to be max motivated with the Eastern Conference-leading Raptors coming to town tonight. 

The Raptors are certainly vulnerable right now.  They have been overvalued for a month now due to having the best record in the East.  The Raptors are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are also just 6-6 SU in their last 12 games. 

The reason the Raptors have been vulnerable of late is due to all their injuries.  They have been without both Jonas Valanciunas and Norman Powell for a while now, and Kyle Lowry has sat out a few gams with a back injury.  Lowry is their most important player as they’ve been able to win consistently without Kawhi Leonard, but not when Lowry has been out of the lineup.  They are just 1-5 ATS in the six games Lowry has missed. 

The Magic will be looking to avenge a 91-93 home loss as identical 7-point dogs to the Raptors on November 20th in their first and only meeting this season.  The Magic are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Orlando.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Magic are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. 

Plays on underdogs (Orlando) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Magic Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -4.5 

I absolutely love the spot for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  This is a home-and-home situation, and the Hornets lost 132-134 at Brooklyn on Wednesday.  And now they get to play two days later with the revenge-minded Hornets only laying 4.5 points at home over the Nets tonight.  They’ll get their revenge with a win and cover at home here. 

It’s definitely time to ’sell high’ on the Nets, who have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall.  That’s why this line is lower than it should be.  They have mostly beaten up on a weak schedule during this stretch with seven of their 10 games coming at home as well.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Hornets, who are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

The Hornets are 12-7 at home this year.  Their offense has been explosive at home, scoring 114.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  The Nets are only scoring 106.8 points per game on the road on 44.2% shooting this season. 

Plays on home favorites (Charlotte) - revenging a loss where opponent scores 100 or more points, off two or more consecutive road losses are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Hornets Friday. 

15* 76ers/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219 

The Utah Jazz remain one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They are 6th in defensive efficiency.  They have really clamped down on the defensive end of late, holding seven straight opponents to 107 points or fewer and giving up an average of just 96.9 points per game during this stretch. 

I think this total has been inflated due to the fact that the 76ers are coming off three straight overs, including their 114-121 (OT) loss to the Celtics on Christmas Day.  But I had the under in that game as well and it would have gone under if not for overtime, so that was a bad beat.  They had 216 combined points at the end of regulation. 

The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in this series.  They have averaged just 187.4 combined points per game in those 10 meetings.  The Jazz and 76ers have combined for 205 or fewer points in 14 of their last 15 meetings.  They have topped 219 combined points just once in their last 43 meetings dating back to 1996.  That makes for a 42-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 219.5. 

The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Jazz last five home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Jazz last seven after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Utah.  These five trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the UNDER as well.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* Lakers/Kings NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Sacramento -3.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off a huge 127-101 upset win as 9-point underdogs over the defending champion Golden State Warriors on Christmas Day.  This is the ultimate letdown spot for them tonight as now they hit the road to take on the Sacramento Kings two days later. 

Making matters worse for the Lakers is the fact that they lost LeBron James to a groin injury in that win, and now James will be sitting this game out.  But the injuries don’t stop there.  The Lakers are also expected to be without Rajon Rondo and Michael Beasley, and their top two centers in Tyson Chandler and JaVale McGee are questionable. 

Yes, the Kings are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their loss to the Clippers last night, but all 13 players saw action and nobody played more than 30 minutes in that game.  So they should be fresh and ready to go with the Lakers coming to town, especially since they had two days off prior to that Clippers game.  This is also a very young team that can handle these back-to-back situations better than most teams. 

The Lakers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Sacramento is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS loss.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Kings are 14-2 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. 

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent that’s off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Kings Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks +14.5 

This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA.  It’s a home-and-home situation where these teams just met in New York on Christmas Day, and now they’ll meet in Milwaukee two days later.  I always like backing the team that lost the first game in these home-and-home situations, and that would be the Knicks here Thursday. 

After losing 95-109 as 10-point home underdogs in the first meeting, the Knicks are now catching 14.5 points in the rematch.  It’s simply too much.  They’ll be the more motivated team after losing that first meeting, while the Bucks won’t be motivated at all after just beating the Knicks on National TV.  I expect the Bucks to simply be going through the motions. 

The Knicks played the Bucks tough outside of the 3rd quarter, where they were outscored 36-22.  That proved to be the difference in the game.  And the Knicks haven’t lost by more than 14 points to the Bucks yet this season.  They lost by 11 in their first meeting in Milwaukee on October 22nd, won outright as 8-point home dogs by 2 in their 2nd meeting on December 1st, then obviously lost by 14 two days ago.  In fact, the Bucks haven’t won any of their last 11 meetings with the Knicks by more than 14 points, making for an 11-0 system backing the Knicks pertaining to this 14.5-point spread. 

New York is 22-11 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Milwaukee is 21-48 ATS in its last 69 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Bucks are 14-29 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.  Milwaukee is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a win.  The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Knicks Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3.5 

The San Antonio Spurs have been flying under the radar over the past three weeks.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are better than they get credit for, and I’ll gladly lay the short number with them at home here tonight against the Denver Nuggets. 

The Nuggets are simply getting too much respect from the books after going 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  But they are missing three starters in Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Will Barton, and it’s simply going to be hard for them to keep up this pace now.  They just lost by 21 last time out to the Clippers on the road, and they’ll be hard-pressed to keep this game even competitive against the Spurs. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  The Spurs are a perfect 11-0 SU In their last 11 home meetings with the Nuggets.  They have won their last eight home meetings with the Nuggets by a whopping 17.1 points per game on average. 

The Spurs are 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 110-plus points per game this season.  They are beating these teams by 16.9 points per game on average.  Denver is 1-10 ATS in road games vs. Southwest Division opponents over the last two seasons.  They are losing by 12.7 points pre game in this spot.  San Antonio is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 home games overall.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday. 

15* Blazers/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215 

I really like taking UNDERS in games between teams that just recently played.  Well, this game fits that mold as the Blazers just hosted the Jazz on December 21st.  So it will be their 2nd meeting in 5 days, and familiarity definitely favors defense.  Look for a low-scoring affair between the Jazz and Blazers tonight. 

They combined for only 210 points in that meeting on December 21st, continuing a trend of what has been a low-scoring series.  In fact, the Jazz and Blazers have now combined for 211 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight consecutive meetings.  They have averaged just 195.5 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those eight games, which is nearly 20 points less than tonight’s posted total of 215. 

The UNDER is 10-1 in Blazers last 11 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Blazers last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Jazz last six games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Jazz last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Lakers/Warriors ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +9 

The Golden State Warriors have been overvalued all season.  That’s what happens when you win three titles in the last four years.  They are just 14-20 ATS on the season.  And they have been even more overvalued since getting Stephen Curry and Draymond Green back in the lineup.  Asking them to win by double-digits to cover this number against the Lakers is simply asking too much. 

Indeed, the Warriors are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They only won by 8 as 9.5-point home favorites over the Timberwolves, lost outright to the Raptors as 8-point home favorites, only won by 5 as 7.5-point road favorites at Sacramento, lost by 5 as 2-point favorites at Utah, won by 4 as 11-point home favorites against the Mavericks and won by 2 as 11-point home favorites against the Clippers. 

The Lakers played the Warriors very tough last season. They went 3-1 ATS and didn’t lose once by more than 11 points.  They took the Warriors to overtime twice, and only lost by 7 points at Golden State as 11.5-point dogs.  And now they have Lebron James and are way better than last year’s Lakers.  And you can bet James wants to prove to the Warriors that he now has a team that can beat them in the playoffs. 

The Warriors are 1-13 ATS in Tuesday games over the last two seasons.  Golden State is 2-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Lakers are 24-10 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 224 

The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are very familiar with one another.  That’s because they played five games in the playoffs last year with the Celtics winning the series 4-1.  And now this will be their second meeting of 2018 already, so this will be their 11th meeting over the past two seasons.  Familiarity favors UNDERS. 

The 76ers and Celtics have combined for 224 or fewer points in 13 of their last 14 meetings, and 218 or fewer in 12 of those 14 games.  They have averaged just 200.8 combined points per game in their last 11 meetings, which is roughly 23 points less than today’s posted total of 224.  They combined for just 192 points in their first meeting this season on October 16th.  The books have really missed their mark badly on this total. 

The Celtics rank 3rd in defensive efficiency this season, while the 76ers are solid as well at 12th.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (Boston) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent that’s off two straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-7 (82.9%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Thunder/Rockets ABC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 222 

Based on season averages, there is value with the UNDER in this game tonight.  Especially since the Rockets are without Chris Paul as they haven’t been nearly as efficient offensively without him.  The Rockets average 217.7 combined points per game this season, while the Thunder average 217.6 combined points per game. 

The Thunder are actually 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 102.0 points per 100 possessions.  But they are just 18th in offensive efficiency.  The Rockets have been forced to play at a slower pace this season because their personnel just isn’t as good.  In fact, the Rockets are 29th in pace at just 96.79 possessions per game.  Only the Grizzlies play slower.  They will control the tempo playing at home today. 

The Rockets and Thunder have combined for 222 or fewer points in five of their last six games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in those six games.  They have averaged just 209.0 combined points per game in their last five meetings, which is roughly 13 points less than today’s posted total of 222.  And they combined for just 178 points in their only meeting this season back on November 8th. 

Houston is a perfect 8-0 UNDER against Northwest Division opponents this season, averaging just 197.6 combined points per game against them.  Oklahoma City is 8-1 UNDER in road games after a combined score of 225 points or more this season.  The Thunder are 12-1 UNDER in Tuesday road games over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 9-0 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Houston is 19-5 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Knicks ESPN Early Riser on New York +10 

The Milwaukee Bucks are way overvalued as 10-point road favorites over the New York Knicks on Christmas Day.  This is a rare chance for the Knicks to showcase their talents on National TV, and they’ll be highly motivated for a victory here Tuesday.  I expect one of their biggest efforts of the season. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Knicks, who are certainly undervalued after going 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But they are finally as healthy as they have been at any other point this season with only Kristaps Porzingis expected to miss this game.  And we’ll ’sell high’ on the Bucks, who are are off to a fast 22-10 start and sitting in 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. 

The Knicks have played the Bucks tough in their two meetings this season.  They covered as 11.5-point road underdogs in an 11-point loss.  And they won outright in overtime 136-134 as 8-point home dogs to the Bucks on December 1st.  I think the Knicks will have an excellent chance to win this game outright as well, let alone stay within this massive 10-point spread at home. 

Milwaukee is 20-48 ATS in its last 68 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - an excellent offensive team that scores more than 102 points per game against a bad defensive team that allows more than 102 points per game, after scoring 90 points or less last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Warriors NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +10.5 

The Clippers are undervalued right now.  They lost six of seven and a large part of that streak was due to the injury to Lou Williams.  But Williams returned two games ago, and it’s no surprise the Clippers have won their two games since his return by a combined 25 points over Dallas and Denver.  Williams is the team’s third-leading scorer at 17.1 PPG and a vital part of their team as he injects life into the bench and closes out games.  Williams has 32 points and 15 assists combined in his two games since returning. 

Both the Clippers and Warriors played last night, so both will be on the 2nd of a back-to-back, but that favors the Clippers.  They are a deep team which has been a big reason for their success, largely due to how well Williams plays off the bench.  The Warriors rely heavily on their big four and play them big minutes, and there’s no doubt that Clippers are the more rested team. 

The Clippers blew out the Nuggets by 21 points last night so they were able to rest their starters.  Only one player played more than 26 minutes for them, and that was youngster Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  Meanwhile, the Warriors were in a dog fight with the Mavericks last night, winning 120-116.  That will have taken its toll as their big four in Curry (39:29), Durant (36:51), Green (35:15) and Thompson (33:00) all were forced to play big minutes.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the deep Clippers tonight. 

I also think it’s a big look-ahead spot for the Warriors.  They have the much-anticipated Christmas Day game with Lebron James and the Lakers on deck.  The Clippers will be the more motivated team tonight as everyone gets up for the defending champs, and they already beat them 121-116 as 4-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  And they tend to play the Warriors tough on the road as their two meetings before that they only lost by 7 as 10.5-point road dogs and upset the Warriors by 19 as 12-point road dogs. 

The Clippers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games after covering three of their last four ATS over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Warriors are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Golden State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 Sunday games.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Clippers Sunday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -6.5 

The Boston Celtics had a lengthy team meeting after Friday night’s home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.  It was necessary after the Celtics suffered their third consecutive loss, which actually followed up an eight-game losing streak.  I look for them to respond in a big way tonight at home against the Hornets now that they have cleared the air amongst themselves. 

I think a big reason for their recent struggles has been the absence of center Al Horford, who has missed the past six games with a sore knee.  But Horford is expected to return tonight, and he means everything to this team.  He is a tremendous passer who can stretch the floor and open things up in the lane for all of their other playmakers like Irving, Tatum and Brown.  Marcus Morris has missed the past two games and could return tonight as well as he is listed as questionable.  They are close to full strength now. 

The Celtics simply own the Hornets, going 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.  Those seven wins have come by an average of 10.4 points per game.  They actually lost by 5 at Charlotte in their lone meeting this season.  But the Celtics are 30-10 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  They are 27-7 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored more than 100 points over the last two seasons.  Boston is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 home games.  Roll with the Celtics Sunday. 

15* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers -9.5 

This one is about as obvious as it gets tonight.  The Wizards are coming off a triple-overtime victory over the Suns yesterday.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Pacers tonight.  Bradley Beal (53:56), Trevor Ariza (54:10), Jeff Green (48:58) and Tomas Satorasnky (48:07) all plays huge minutes last night.  Otto Porter is out due to injury, and John Wall is questionable after missing last night with an illness. 

The Pacers come in playing very well.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their two losses during this stretch came by a combined 4 points, and one was on the road to Toronto.  Seven of their eight wins have come by 8 points or more, including five by double-digits.  Given the awful situation for the Wizards tonight off the triple-OT game, the Pacers should have no problem beating them by double-digits to get the cover. 

The Wizards are just 4-14 SU & 4-14 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.8 points per game on average.  The Pacers are 28-8 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Washington is 0-10 ATS in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams who make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Washington is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on zero rest.  Take the Pacers Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +3 

The Miami Heat are undervalued once again as home underdogs to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  This is a Heat team that has gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games despite playing six of those seven on the road.   

The Heat beat the Rockets 101-99 Thursday as 3-point dogs in their only home game during this stretch.  And now they are certainly rested and ready to go as this will be just the 2nd game in 6 days for Miami.  Look for another big performance from them here with the Bucks coming to down. 

The Bucks are a tired team and are in a clearly letdown spot.  Milwaukee will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 8th game in 14 days.  They are coming off a huge 120-107 win in Boston in a revenge game after the Celtics knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Heat tonight as they were the Celtics. 

Few teams have been able to shut down Giannis and company like the Heat have.  Indeed, the Heat are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bucks.  They have held the Bucks to just 90 points per game in those five meetings and have outscored them by an average of 11.8 points per game.  Given the favorable situation for the Heat and the bad one for the Bucks, their domination of this series will continue tonight.  Take the Heat Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -1 

I think the Clippers are back to being undervalued now after losing six of their last eight overall since being in first place in the Western Conference.  But a big reason for those struggles was the loss of perennial 6th man of the year Lou Williams.  But he is back health now and returned for their win over the Mavericks on Thursday. 

The Nuggets are overvalued due to winning four straight and 11 of their last 13 overall coming in.  They have managed to get by despite key injuries with three starters out in Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton.  But I still believe it’s going to catch up with them sooner rather than later.  And their four-game winning streak was all at home, and now they hit the road here. 

The Clippers are 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season.  The Nuggets are 13-3 at home compared to just 8-6 on the road.  And I have no doubt the Clippers will be the more motivated team here after their recent struggles.  They also will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days so they are rested and ready to go. 

Denver is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games following two consecutive home games.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Los Angeles is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Clippers Saturday. 

15* Pelicans/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5 

The Los Angeles Lakers return home tonight highly motivated for a victory.  They are coming off back-to-back upset road losses to the Wizards and Nets to close out a tough road trip.  But the Lakers have had two days off since last playing on Tuesday to rest and recover.  They are now primed for a big performance at home tonight. 

The Pelicans are a mash unit right now.  Starters Elfrid Payton and Nikola Mirotic are out, while fellow starters Anthony Davis and Julius Randle are listed as questionable.  Well, the Lakers are getting healthier tonight as starter Brandon Ingram is expected to return from his ankle injury.  Backup PG Rajon Rondo has been upgraded to questionable and could make his return to the lineup as well. 

The Pelicans have been brutal on the road this season, going 4-12 SU and giving up 116.1 PPG.  The Lakers are 11-4 at home and scoring 113.8 PPG and should be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a putrid Pelicans defense.  And with all of their injuries right now, this New Orleans offense just isn’t hitting on all cylinders. 

New Orleans is 3-12 ATS after playing a road game this season.  Los Angeles is 19-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five Friday games.  Los Angeles is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Lakers Friday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Portland Trail Blazers -2 

The Portland Trail Blazers are too good at home to only be laying two points to the Utah Jazz tonight.  They are 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS at home this season and winning by 8.3 points per game on average.  The Blazers are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games overall. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series too as the home team is 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  And this is clearly a letdown spot for the Jazz, who are coming off a huge upset win over the defending champion Warriors on Wednesday and won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Blazers tonight.  Take the Blazers Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4 

The San Antonio Spurs are a lot better than they get credit for.  And they are certainly better at home than on the road.  They come in playing well going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And I still think they’re undervalued as only 4-point home favorites over the Timberwolves tonight. 

One of my favorite trends with this Spurs team is that they are 13-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  They are also 10-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  They are winning by an average of 16.2 PPG in this 10-0 situation. 

Well, the Spurs just suffered one of their worst losses of the season 89-128 at Minnesota on November 28th.  So they’ll be highly motivated to avenge that defeat.  And they should be able to against a Timberwolves team that has been atrocious on the road, going 2-12 SU & 5-9 ATS while losing by 7.6 PPG.   

The Timberwolves will also be without starting PG Jeff Teague tonight.  Meanwhile, the Spurs are as healthy as they’ve been at any point this season, which is a big reason why they are playing so well coming into this game.  Their strong play continues tonight in this revenge spot.  Bet the Spurs Friday.