15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +4 

What more do the Indiana Pacers have to do to get some respect?  They have gone 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are coming off back-to-back upset road wins at Boston (99-97) as 4.5-point underdogs and at Philadelphia (101-98) as 6-point dogs.   

Now they find themselves catching 4 points at home to the Toronto Raptors tonight.  The Pacers have been great at home all season, going 23-12 SU & 20-15 ATS.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings.   

The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in those nine meetings.  They beat the Raptors 107-104 as 2.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  They only lost 115-120 as 7-point road underdogs in their second meeting. 

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Indiana.  Take the Pacers Thursday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +7 

This young Sacramento Kings squad continues to play hard.  They aren’t thinking about tanking at all.  That is evidenced with the fact that they’ve gone 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They took both Oklahoma City and Utah down to the wire in losses, and handled their business against Brooklyn, New York and Orlando. 

Now the Kings face a depleted Miami Heat team that is missing two of its best players.  The Heat will be without stud center Hassan Whiteside and legend Dwyane Wade.  It didn’t go so well without these two the other night in a 16-point loss at Portland. 

The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Sacramento is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Kings Wednesday. 

15* Nuggets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2 

The Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they continue to fight to make the playoffs.  They are 15-7 SU in their last 22 games overall, including a 127-113 home victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out. 

I love this spot for the Lakers, too.  Their last loss came at Denver on March 9th just a few days ago by a final of 116-125.  Now they don’t have to wait long for revenge just four days later, and it will be at home this time around. 

The Nuggets should not be road favorites here considering they are just 11-20 SU & 12-17-2 ATS on the highway this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as well.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. 

The Lakers are 10-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.  Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games.  The Lakers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Nuggets are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the Lakers Tuesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5 

The New Orleans Pelicans will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost two straight to Washington and Utah coming in.  Fortunately for them, they get the opportunity to face the struggling Charlotte Hornets to get back on track tonight. 

The Pelicans are still 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are playing at an extremely fast tempo and putting pressure not their opponents.  Now they’re up against a Hornets defense that has been lacking to say the least. 

The Hornets are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have given up 110 or more points in five of those six games, and an average of 119.2 points per game.  That spells trouble for the Hornets, who are better off tanking the rest of the way because they aren’t in playoff contention. 

Charlotte is 0-8 ATS off three or more consecutive overs this season.  The Hornets are 1-10 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this Eason.  Charlotte is 3-21 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Hornets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  These five trends combine for a 53-4 system backing the home team tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +12.5 

The Thunder just have a way of playing to the level of their competition.  They cannot be trusted tonight to put away the Sacramento Kings by 13 points or more, which is what it would take to cover this spread. 

That’s especially the case with some of the injuries they are dealing with right now.  Perhaps the most underrated big man in the league in Steven Adams, and he’s questionable with an ankle injury.  Guard Terrance Ferguson is out tonight with a concussion. 

The Kings have played the Thunder extremely tough in their three meetings this season.  The Kings are 3-0 ATS in those three games, winning by 8 at home, losing by 3 at home, and losing by 7 on the road. 

The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Sacramento is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss.  Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Monday games.  The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Sacramento) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102+ PPG), after allowing 105 points or more are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Kings Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks +10 

There is going to be a hangover factor here Sunday with the Houston Rockets.  They just had their 17-game winning streak snapped on Friday with a 105-108 loss in Toronto.  It will be hard for them to get up for this game now that their streak has ended. 

The Rockets shouldn’t be double-digit road favorites here even if they were healthy.  But they aren’t even healthy as they will be playing without their best player and likely league MVP James Harden due to a knee injury.  Sharpshooter Ryan Anderson is also out with a hip injury. 

I think the books are putting too much stock into this being the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Mavericks.  But they’ll be fresh not only because they crushed Memphis 114-80 yesterday, but also because they had three days off prior to that game.  So I believe the back-to-back to be a non-issue here. 

The Mavericks are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  Dallas is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 Sunday games.  Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

15* Magic/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 218.5 

The Orlando Magic are severely limited offensively right now because they are playing without their two leading scorers in Aaron Gordon (18.3 ppg) and Evan Fournier (17.8 ppg). 

That was on display last night in their 88-94 road loss to the Sacramento Kings.  They also scored just 80 points against Utah a few days ago.  I just don’t see where the points are going to come by from them to get this game over the 218.5-point total. 

Both teams will be tired because this is a 2nd of a back-to-back for each after they both played last night.  That will help keep the pace slow as neither team will be looking to run much. 

The Magic and Clippers have combined for 209 or fewer points in 16 of their last 17 meetings.  That makes for a 16-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 218.5.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4.5 

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 113-117 loss at Washington just a few days ago on March 6th.  Now they get the Wizards at home this time around. 

They also get to play a tired Washington team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in New Orleans last night.  These two angles make the Heat and easy choice as only 4.5-point home favorites here Saturday. 

Miami is 30-15 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 20-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years.  Miami is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  Bet the Heat Saturday. 

20* Warriors/Blazers NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Portland +1.5 

The Golden State Warriors have all kinds of injury issues right now.  Stephen Curry will miss a couple games with an ankle injury.  Jordan Bell and Patrick McCaw are out, Andre Iguodala and David West are questionable, and Klay Thompson is battling a hip injury. 

Making matters worse for the Warriors tonight is the fact that they’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a hard-fought 110-107 home victory over the Spurs last night.  The Warriors needed to exert a lot of energy to outscore the Spurs 32-20 in the 4th quarter to escape with the victory. 

Now they must deal with one of the hottest teams in the NBA in the Portland Trail Blazers, who have gone 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Not to mention, Portland is 14-1 SU & 12-2-1 ATS in its last 15 home games.  Take the Blazers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Grizzlies UNDER 197.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies are a mash unit right now.  They are without Mike Conley and Tyreke Evans, their top two point guards.  They are also without fellow guards Andrew Harrison and Mario Chalmers, as well as Chandler Parsons. 

I just don’t know where the points are going to come from for Memphis tonight against one of the best defensive teams in the league in the Utah Jazz.  The Grizzlies have failed to top 102 points in 13 of their last 15 games overall. 

The key to the Jazz going 16-2 in their last 18 games overall has been defense.  They have allowed 100 points or fewer in 15 of those 18 games.  Their offense has struggled of late in scoring 98 or fewer points in five of their last seven games as well. 

The Jazz and Grizzlies have combined for 198 or fewer points in 18 consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 197 or fewer in 16 of those.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat +1 

The Miami Heat should not be home underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  The 76ers are just 15-19 on the road this season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.  Miami is 6-0 SU in its last six home meetings with Philadelphia. 

The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.  Philadelphia is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Heat are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Miami is 12-2-2 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Heat Thursday. 

15* Cavs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +3 

The Cleveland Cavaliers don’t have to wait too long for their shot at revenge against the Denver Nuggets.  They just lost at home to the Nuggets on Saturday, March 3rd by a final of 117-126.  Look for them to have their revenge no the road just a few days later here tonight. 

This is a tough spot for the Nuggets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 107-118 loss to the Dallas Mavericks on the road last night.  The Cavs will be the fresher team after having yesterday off following a 112-90 blowout home win over Detroit on Wednesday.   

The Cavs inserted Larry Nance into the starting lineup, and he delivered with one of the best games of his career.  Their best lineup in terms of plus-minus has been Lebron and the four new players they got via trade, and I think Tyronn Lue has figured that out and will take advantage of it moving forward. 

Plays against any team (Denver) - off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Cleveland is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Denver.  Bet the Cavs Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +7 

The Orlando Magic have been a nice money maker for backers over the last couple months.  They have gone 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Now they are as healthy as they have been all season with the recent returns of Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic to the lineup. 

The Lakers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Now they are being asked to lay prices that they shouldn’t be.  In fact, this will be just the second time that they have been a favorite of more than 4 points since January 11th. 

The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  The Lakers are 11-24 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

15* Pelicans/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are currently in 9th place in the Western Conference.  They have put themselves in this position by going 23-10 SU in their last 33 games overall.  Doc Rivers is doing one of the best coaching jobs of his career as this cast of players has really gelled as a team. 

There is just 4 games separately 3rd through 10th place in the Western Conference.  The Pelicans are in 4th place currently thanks to their eight-game winning streak.  So they are a team that the Clippers are chasing.  The Clippers will be the more motivated team at home tonight, and I fully expect them to end this streak. 

The Clippers have scored 114 or more points in seven of tier last eight games overall.  They have shot 50% or better from the field in seven of those eight games as well.  The Pelicans are a terrible defensive team, giving up 111.6 points per game on the season, and 117.0 points per game in their last five. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - hot team having covered six or seven of their last eight against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 20-7 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 106 or more points per game this season.  Los Angeles is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings with New Orleans, winning by an average of a whopping 17.5 points per game.  Roll with the Clippers Tuesday.   

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have played their best against the best teams in the NBA.  They have played their worst against the worst teams.  They just have a knack of playing to the level of their competition.  Look for them to come up big tonight and end Houston’s winning streak. 

The Rockets are way overvalued right now due to their 15-game winning streak.  They’re being asked to go on the road and lay 5 points against one of the better teams in the Western Conference.  The Thunder are 3-1 against the Rockets and Warriors this season, the two best teams in the West. 

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Houston) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more in four consecutive games are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1996. 

The Thunder are 41-18-3 ATS in their last 62 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on two days’ rest.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Hornets UNDER 215 

I love backing the UNDER in this situation.  The 76ers and Hornets just met a few days ago on March 2nd in a 110-99 home victory by the 76ers.  They combined for 209 points in that contest.  Now they are very familiar with one another, and this game should be even more low-scoring.  I really like the UNDER 215 here. 

The UNDER is 4-1 in 76ers last five games overall.  They have combined with their opponents for 205, 203, 205 and 209 points in the four UNDERS.  The Hornets are coming off two straight UNDERS themselves with combined scores of 209 and 201 points. 

The recent head-to-head history between these teams really favors the UNDER as well.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The Hornets and 76ers have combined for 209 or fewer points in all six games. They are averaging a combined 197.7 points per game in those six contests.  That’s roughly 17 points less than tonight’s posted total of 215.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -11 

The San Antonio Spurs come in highly motivated for a victory Monday after losing two straight and six of their last seven.  They also come in rested as this will be just their 3rd game in 8 days.  I expect a big effort from them and a blowout home victory over the lowly Memphis Grizzlies. 

A big reason for the Spurs’ recent struggles has been injuries.  But they have gotten healthier with all this time off as Rudy Gay is returning to the lineup, and LaMarcus Aldridge is likely to return tonight as well.  They only significant player they should be missing is Kawhi Leonard, who has been out for quite some time now. 

The Spurs will be able to get right against a Grizzlies team that is clearly tanking.  The Grizzlies are 0-13 in their last 13 games overall with six double-digit losses along the way.  Now they are in worse shape injury-wise than they have been all season.  The Grizzlies will be without Mike Conley, Tyreke Evans, Mario Chalmers and Andrew Harrison tonight, and Marc Gasol is questionable with an ankle injury. 

The Spurs are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Grizzlies, winning their three previous meetings this season by an average of 16 points per game.  The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Pacers UNDER 209.5 

I love backing the UNDER in this situation.  The Bucks and Pacers just played each other on March 2nd just a few days ago in a 103-96 road victory by the Pacers.  These teams are obviously very familiar with one another now. 

After combining for just 199 points a few days ago, I certainly believe there’s value with the UNDER on this 209.5-point total.  It’s also worth noting that the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with four of those five games seeing 205 or fewer combined points. 

Indiana is a perfect 7-0 UNDER in home games against division opponents this season.  The Pacers are 10-2 UNDER off two consecutive road games this season.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 games following a win.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Bucks last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Pacers last six games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday. 

15* Nets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -7.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers might be the single-most underrated team in the NBA right now.  They have been on a roll since trading Blake Griffin and their deep roster that is short on superstars but long on hard workers has a lot to do with it. 

The Clippers have gone 22-10 SU In their last 32 games overall to put themselves in position to make the playoffs in the Western Conference at 33-28 on the season.  I think Doc Rivers is doing one of the best coaching jobs of his career, and this squad plays together as a team as well as almost anyone in the NBA. 

The Nets won’t offer much resistance tonight as they are just 2-14 SU in their last 16 games overall.  They are 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, losing six times by 9 points or more. 

The Clippers are 6-0 SU & in their last six home meetings with the Nets, winning by an average of 17.3 points per game.  They have won their last three home meetings with the Nets by an average of 27 points per game.  Roll with the Clippers Sunday. 

15* Thunder/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -4 

The Portland Trail Blazers beat the Warriors 123-117 at home as 6-point underdogs in their final game prior to the break.  They have used that win as a springboard to go 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are also 12-1 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. 

Now they get to face a tired Oklahoma City squad that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Thunder were fortunate to escape with a 124-116 win in Phoenix last night after closing the game on an 8-0 run.  They won’t be so fortunate against the Blazers tonight. 

Portland simply owns Oklahoma City, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  They won by 4 at home and by 11 on the road in their two meetings this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU In the last 12 meetings.  Portland is 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with OKC. 

The Thunder are 2-11 ATS against division opponents this season.  OKC is 3-13 ATS when revenging a same season loss this season.  The Blazers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Portland is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. Western Conference foes.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Saturday. 

25* Celtics/Rockets NBA on ABC GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston +9 

The Boston Celtics came out of the All-Star Break on a mission.  They had lost their final three games prior to the break to fall into second place behind the Raptors in the East.  But they got a healthy Marcus Smart back in the lineup after the break, and he is starting to show his value to the team. 

The Celtics are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their four games since the Break.  They won by 12 at Detroit, won by 9 at New York, won by 11 at home over Memphis and won by 28 at home over Charlotte.  Now they have had two days off to get ready for the Houston Rockets.  The Celtics are one of the few teams to have beaten the Rockets this season as they won their lone meeting at home. 

The Rockets are starting to be overvalued now due to their current 14-game winning streak.  No question they are playing well, but now they are being asked to lay a whopping 9 points to one of the best teams in the NBA in the Celtics.  Boston won’t go down without a fight here Saturday night.  The Celtics have only lost six times by double-digits all season.  This won’t be one of those times. 

Houston is 1-8 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  The Rockets are 1-10 ATS off three consecutive covers as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Houston is 4-13 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 3-16 ATS after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Boston is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Celtics are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games.  Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Houston.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Celtics Saturday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 

After going just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, I believe the Cleveland Cavaliers are now undervalued as just 4.5-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets tonight.  Look for them to play with a sense of urgency and to get the win and cover to end this rough stretch. 

They get to face the Nuggets rested as they had yesterday off.  Meanwhile, the Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning 108-102 in Memphis last night.  And this is a Nuggets team that has struggled on the road all season, going just 10-19 SU & 11-16-2 ATS on the highway. 

The Cavs have won their last two home meetings with the Nuggets by 16 and 33 points, respectively.  Denver is 12-26 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Cavaliers Saturday. 

15* T’Wolves/Jazz ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 208 

Look for a defensive battle tonight on ESPN between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Utah Jazz.  Both teams are coming off a loss and both are dealing with some injuries right now.  The Timberwolves are without Jimmy Butler and could be without Taj Gibson (questionable), while the Jazz are without backup PG Raul Neto. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last four games.  They have combined with their opponents to average just 190.6 combined points per game over their last five contests.  They have come out of the All-Star Break playing tremendous defense, but their offense has managed just 94.2 points per game in their last five. 

I don’t expect the Timberwolves to be too efficient offensively tonight without Butler and possibly Gibson.  Making matters more difficult for them is the fact that they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in altitude after losing 99-108 in Portland last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank, and they won’t be looking to push the pace because of it. 

The Jazz and Timberwolves have combined for 207 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 meetings.  Utah is 10-2 UNDER vs. division opponents this season.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Jazz last six games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Timberwolves last four games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes played the previous day.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks +13 

The Atlanta Hawks continue to battle.  They just upset Indiana 107-102 as 4-point home underdogs in their last game and are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.  Now they have the defending champion Warriors coming to town and will certainly be up for this game Friday night. 

The Hawks have been able to play the Warriors extremely tough in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last four meetings were decided by 10 points or less.  Atlanta hasn’t lost any of its last four home meetings with the Warriors by more than 10 points. 

Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. Western Conference foes.  The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six game splaying on one days’ rest.  The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference teams.  Take the Hawks Friday. 

20* 76ers/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -2.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are grossly undervalued right now as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They hit a rough patch coming out of the break, which is why the betting public isn’t all over them.  But now it’s time to pounce at this price range as you’ll rarely find the Cavs as this small of a home favorite. 

Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers are overvalued right now due to their recent seven-game winning streak.  But six of those seven wins were at home with their only road win coming 116-115 as 7.5-point favorites at Chicago.  They have since lost two straight on the road to Washington (94-109) and Miami (101-102).  I faded them in both of those games with success, and I’ll do so again tonight as they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers. 

Cleveland simply owns Philadelphia.  The Cavs are 11-0 SU in their last 11 meetings with the 76ers, including a 22-point road win and a 7-point home win in their two meetings this season.  The 76ers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Thursday games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -1.5 

It’s safe to say the Detroit Pistons will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They have lost six of their last seven games overall while going 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, which I believe has them way undervalued right now as only 1.5-point favorites in this matchup. 

The Pistons still have a shot to make the playoffs at 28-32 on the season, just 3.5 games back of eighth place in the Eastern Conference.  But if they are going to make a run, it needs to start now.  Look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Bucks are in a tough spot here playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing at home to the Wizards last night.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU In the last five meetings.  Detroit is 35-13 SU in its last 48 home meetings with Milwaukee. 

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Detroit) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 44-20 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bucks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +9.5 

I’ve been riding the Orlando Magic pretty hard here lately because they have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA since the calendar turned to 2018.  Indeed, they are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They just got back two of their best players from injury after the All-Star Break in Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic as well.  Now they are catching a whopping 9.5 points at home to the Toronto Raptors tonight. 

Conversely, the Raptors come in overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are now having to lay prices that are going to make it very difficult for them to cover.  They are the No. 1 team in the East right now and the betting public has taken notice. 

The Magic have been able to figure out the Raptors.  They are 3-5 SU in the last eight meetings but 6-2 ATS in those eight games.  Only twice have they lost by double-digits during this stretch.  They have won two of the last three meetings outright as 5 and 11-point underdogs. 

The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Raptors.  Take the Magic Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat +1 

The Philadelphia 76ers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers right now due to going 7-1 in their last eight games overall.  But six of those seven wins came at home.  Their only road win came 116-115 as 7.5-point favorites at Chicago.  They also lost 94-109 at Washington last time out.  The 76ers are now just 13-17 SU & 13-17 ATS on the road this year. 

The Miami Heat are playing well right now but not getting the respect they deserve.  They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They did lost three games straight up, but all three losses came on the road by 3, 2 and 1 point.  They beat Milwaukee by 6 and Memphis by 26 at home. 

That 2-point loss was a 102-104 loss at Philadelphia on February 14th in their final game before the All-Star Break.  That places the Heat in revenge mode at home this time around.  In fact, they have actually lost two road meetings at Philadelphia in the month of February with the other coming by 6 points.  So they are playing with double-revenge. 

The Heat are 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings with the 76ers while winning by a whopping 14.2 points per game on average.  Miami is a perfect 8-0 ATS revenging a close loss vs. opponent by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Heat Tuesday. 

15* T’Wolves/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +5.5 

The Sacramento Kings have been playing some real competitive basketball of late.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes a 106-111 road loss at Minnesota as 13-point underdogs on February 11th.  Now they will be looking for revenge at home this time around on the Timberwolves. 

The Timberwolves suffered a big blow when Jimmy Butler recently sustained a sprained knee.  He is now going to miss an indefinite amount of time, and there’s no question they are going to miss his leadership, defense and scoring.  They will be vulnerable moving forward. 

The Timberwolves can’t be 5.5-point road favorites without Butler here.  They are just 12-19 SU & 13-16-2 ATS on the road this season.  The Timberwolves are 0-9 ATS in road games versus teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. 

Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Minnesota is 18-46 ATS in its last 64 games after scoring 120 points or more in its previous game.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on one days’ rest.  Roll with the Kings Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +10 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a massive hangover spot here.  They are coming off a road loss to the defending champion Golden State Warriors where tempers were high.  They had won their previous two meetings with the Warriors this season.  Now they’ll have a hard time getting back up to face the Orlando Magic at home tonight and covering this lofty 10-point spread. 

The Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in 2018.  They have gone 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  In fact, they have lost by double-digits only twice in their last 18 games, making for a 16-2 system backing them pertaining to this 10-point spread. 

The Magic have been competitive despite the injuries.  And now they are getting healthy and will be a tough out the rest of the way for any team.  Both Aaron Gordon (18.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg) and Nikola Vucevic (17.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg) returned from injury after the All-Star Break, and now that both have a few games under their belts they should have shaken the rust off by now. 

The Magic have been a thorn in OKC’s side.  The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Thunder.  They have only lost by double-digit to the Thunder once in the last 10 meetings.  Dating back further, the Thunder have only beaten the Magic by double-digits three times in the last 27 meetings, making for a 24-3 system backing Orlando.   

The Thunder are 0-10 ATS when revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a road favorite this season.  The Magic beat them 121-108 as 5.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Magic Monday. 

20* 76ers/Wizards ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Washington -1.5

The Washington Wizards have actually been better without John Wall.  They have gone 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have wins over the likes of Oklahoma City, Toronto, Indiana and Cleveland during this stretch as well.  They have been consistently undervalued without Wall, and they are actually sharing the basketball better and playing more as a team without him. 

Philadelphia comes into this game way overvalued after going 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  But six of those seven games were at home, and they escaped with a 116-115 win at Chicago as 7.5-point favorites in their only road game during this stretch. 

The 76ers are just 13-16 SU & 13-16 ATS on the road this year as they’ve done all their damage at home.  And now they are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. 

Home-court advantage has been huge recently in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 5 points or more.  The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Washington is 8-0 ATS in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Wizards tonight.  Take the Wizards Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +10 

The Orlando Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past month-plus.  They have gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  And now they are getting healthy as both Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic returned from injury since the All-Star Break. 

Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers are way overvalued right now due their currently six-game winning streak.  They needed a last-second shot to beat the Bulls 116-115 as 7.5-point road favorites in their first game back from the game. 

Now the 76ers are being asked to lay double-digits against a pesky Magic team that has only lost by double-digits once in their last 17 games overall.  That makes for a 16-1 system backing the Magic pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Plus, the Magic are 19-8 ATS as a dog of 10 points or more over the last three seasons. 

The Magic are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games.  Orlando is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  Philadelphia is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 trips to Philadelphia.  Bet the Magic Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on San Antonio Spurs +3.5 

The Spurs are much healthier coming out of the All-Star Break than they were going into it.  They were playing without both LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay prior to the break, but both are expected to be back now.  Manu Ginobli is also probable.  That leaves Kawhi Leonard as the only player they are missing, and they are good enough to win without him with everyone else at full strength. 

I think the Spurs come out of the break extra motivated because they lost to the Nuggets 109-117 as 7-point road underdogs without both Aldridge and Gay.  With those two back, they should get their revenge here as 3.5-point underdogs and win this game outright. 

I think the Nuggets come out of the break a little overvalued because they were hot going into the break.  They are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Now they are actually favorites against a mostly healthy Spurs team, when in the past they would never be favored over San Antonio.  If anything, the break could only have hurt their momentum. 

The Spurs are 15-2 SU in their last 17 meetings with the Nuggets.  San Antonio is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 trips to Denver.  The Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The Nuggets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take the Spurs Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA.  They are 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Seven of their last nine wins have come by 9 points or more, so they are not only winning they are dominating. 

The thing is that 11-0 run has only gotten the Jazz to 10th place in the Western Conference at 30-28.  They are still 1.5 games behind the Pelicans for the 8th seed, and 2.0 games behind the Blazers for the 7th spot.  That means they still have a lot of work to still, so they should come out of the break still motivated, especially hosting a team they are trailing in the Blazers tonight. 

The Jazz have owned the Blazers this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against them while winning by 9 at home and by 19 on the road.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. 

The Blazers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Jazz are 8-1 ATS in their last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Jazz Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -2 

The Boston Celtics lost their lead in the Eastern Conference by losing four of their final five games before the break, including their last three in a row.  It’s safe to say they will come out of the break extra motivated because of it and looking to take out their frustrations on the Pistons. 

Detroit hasn’t exactly been tearing it up since trading for Blake Griffin.  In fact, the Pistons are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have failed to cover the spread in five straight and have lost outright as favorites in three of their last four games coming in. 

The Celtics have owned the Pistons.  They have won five of the last seven meetings, including a 91-81 road win as 1-point favorites in their last meeting this season.  Now the Celtics have Marcus Smart back for the first time in weeks, and they clearly have missed him with their struggles prior to the break. 

The road team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Pistons are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Celtics are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Boston is 9-1 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive overs this season.  Roll with the Celtics Friday. 

20* Wizards/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a new outlook now since making the trade.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four games since trading for George Hill, Rodney Hood, Larry Nance Jr. and Jordan Clarkson. They are winning these four games by an average of 12.0 points per game. 

Most impressively, they have beaten both Boston and Oklahoma City on the road, as well as Minnesota at home during this stretch.  And they didn’t have those four players in uniform for the first two games.  And now with the All-Star Break, it has only given these guys more time to practice and get used to one another both on and off the court.  The Cavaliers are primed for a huge second half run now. 

The Washington Wizards remain without their star and leader in John Wall for another few weeks due to a knee injury.  They aren’t capable of beating a team the caliber of these current Cavaliers without him, especially on the road in a hostile atmosphere. 

The Cavaliers have owned the Wizards, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) after leading their last three games by 5-plus points at the half against opponent that scored 115 points or more last game are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Cavaliers Thursday. 

15* Nuggets/Bucks Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Milwaukee -2.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks have gone 9-2 since Joe Prunty took over for Jason Kidd.  The most noticeable difference has been on the defensive end, where the Bucks have locked down their opponents.  They are giving up just 95.9 points per game in their last 11 games. 

The Denver Nuggets come into this game getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers after winning five of their last six games.  But four of those wins came at home, and it has been a different story for them on the road this year. 

The Nuggets are just 8-19 on the road this season.  They had lost seven straight road games before finally ending that skid with a 123-113 win in Phoenix in their last road game.  But the Suns are playing as poorly as any team in the NBA right now having lost 12 of their last 13 with 10 of those losses coming by double-digits. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Denver) - hot team having covered six or seven of their last eight games, with a winning record on the season are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bucks Thursday. 

20* Warriors/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -5.5 

The Golden State Warriors recently got their wake-up call losing three of four games and two straight for the first time all season.  They have since responded by going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning by 18, 17 and 46 points.  Now they want to cap it off with another big performance against the Blazers in their final game before the All-Star Break. 

The Blazers have been too inconsistent to compete with a team like Golden State.  The Blazers have lost four of their last six games with three of those losses coming by 19 or more points.  One of their wins was an home overtime victory over the Hornets, while the other was a road win at hapless Sacramento. 

The Warriors have won 11 straight meetings with the Blazers.  Nine of those 11 wins have come by 6 points or more, which is all it’s going to take to cover this generous 5.5-point spread.  Plus, Portland stud big man Jusuf Nurkic (calf, back, oblique) is questionable to play tonight, while the Warriors are basically fully healthy, especially among the big four. 

Plays on road favorites (Golden State) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division opponent against a team that is off a home loss by 10 points or more are 52-18 (74.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Golden State is 37-18 ATS in the last 55 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Portland.  Bet the Warriors Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -12 

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA right now.  They are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are scoring 112 points per game and giving up just 97.1 points per game during this winning streak, outscoring opponents by nearly 15 points per game.  That’s why I’m not afraid to lay 12 points with them here Wednesday against Phoenix. 

It also helps that the Suns are the coldest team in the NBA right now.  Phoenix has lost six straight and is just 1-11 in its last 12 contests.  Not only are they losing, they are getting crushed as nine of those 11 losses have come by double-digits.  One of those losses was a 97-129 home loss to these Utah Jazz on February 2nd less than two weeks ago. 

The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Jazz are 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Suns, winning those six games by an average of 19.5 points per game.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Raptors UNDER 206.5 

Defense has certainly won out in recent meetings between the Heat and Raptors.  I’m absolutely shocked the books have set this number so high tonight when you look at the scores from those recent meetings and compare them to this 206.5-point total. 

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  They have combined for 179, 190, 185, 193 and 183 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That’s an average of just 186.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 21 points less than tonight’s posted total of 206.5.   

Dating back further, the Heat and Raptors have combined for 205 or fewer points in each of their last 12 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 206.5-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat +8 

The Miami Heat have had three days off since last playing on Friday in a 91-85 home win over the Milwaukee Bucks.  It’s safe to say they’ll be fresh and ready to go heading into their final two games before the All-Star Break.  That should lead to a big performance from them tonight. 

I think the Raptors are being overvalued right now after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  It has come mostly against a soft schedule with four of the five games at home.  They’ll get more than they bargained for from the Heat tonight. 

Miami has certainly had a knack for playing the Raptors tough of late.  They are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  They only lost by 2 as 4.5-point road underdogs in their final meeting last season, and they upset the Raptors 90-89 as 4-point road underdogs in their first and only meeting thus far this season on January 9th.  Now they are getting a whopping 8 points just a month later. 

The Heat are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Miami is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Heat are 13-2 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  Toronto is 15-29 ATS when revenging a loss over the last three seasons.  Bet the Heat Tuesday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4 

The Utah Jazz are playing better than anyone in the NBA right now.  The Jazz pushed their winning streak to nine with a 115-96 win over Portland Sunday night.  They are now .500 for the first time since early December and just 1.5 games behind the Pelicans for 8th place in the Western Conference.  They are focused and wanting to keep this winning streak going heading into the All-Star Break in a few days. 

Extending the streak to 10 shouldn’t be a problem tonight because few teams have been attacked by the injury bug as viciously as San Antonio this season.  The Spurs will face the Jazz without several key players in the lineup.  Kawhi Leonard and Rudy Gay have been out for a while, Tony Parker and Dejounte Murray both missed last game and remain questionable tonight, and LaMarcus Aldridge (22.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg) will sit out with a sore knee tonight. 

Not even Greg Popovich has been able to work magic with this team due to all of these injuries.  The Spurs are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games, losing all three times by 9 points or more.  That includes a 111-120 home loss to the Jazz as 6.5-point favorites on February 3rd.  It was the 3rd straight victory in the series for Utah with the previous two coming at home.  I give the Spurs zero chance of even being competitive on the road this time around. 

The Jazz are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Jazz are 8-0 ATS in their last eight when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  These four trends combined for a 27-1 system backing Utah tonight.  Take the Jazz Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 

I think the Los Angeles Clippers are going to be a dangerous team moving forward.  They have so many good players that not too many people know about, which keeps them under the radar.  They have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall and they added some nice pieces before the deadline. 

Certainly losing Blake Griffin hurts, but they got back some nice pieces for him in 3-and-D Avery Bradley and elite scorer Tobias Harris.  Other unsung heroes like Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari, Austin Rivers and Montrezl Harrell have all taken their games to the next level this season.  This is a deep team that has 10 players averaging at least 8.5 points per game. 

The Nets are in free-fall mode right now and just looking forward to the All-Star Break in a few days.  They are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall.  They have some key injuries to two of their best players right now that are getting overlooked.  Both Rondae Holllis-Jefferson (14.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Caris LeVert (11.6 ppg, 4.1 apg) are out right now.  And D’Angelo Russell just seems to be a cancer as they have struggled since he returned.  He hijacks the offense too often with his woeful 29% 3-point shooting. 

The Clippers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Los Angeles is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 road games.  The Clippers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Clippers Monday. 

20* Raptors/Hornets NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -3.5 

The Toronto Raptors are rolling right now.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their four wins coming by an average of 21.3 points per game.  Now they are only favored by 3.5 against a Charlotte Hornets team they should handle. 

The Hornets are coming off a four-game road trip in which they went 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS.  Now they will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  I always like fading teams in that first home game following an extended road trip because it’s a tough spot for them.  They have things to deal with at home when they get back that are distractions. 

The Raptors have won both meetings with he Hornets in blowout fashion this season.  They won 126-113 at home and 129-111 on the road.  The Hornets simply aren’t good enough to hang with a team the caliber of Toronto, which may be the best team in the East this season. 

Charlotte is 2-11 ATS as a home underdog over the last two seasons.  The Hornets are 1-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.  The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  The Hornets are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Raptors Sunday. 

20* Spurs/Warriors ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Golden State -10.5 

I think we are getting the Warriors at a bargain as only 10.5-point favorites at home tonight over the Spurs.  That’s because the Warriors have had their wake-up call in losing three of their last five games coming in.  Now they should be fully focused against the Spurs tonight. 

The Spurs have gone just 9-9 in their last 18 games overall.  They are an average team right now due to all of their injuries.  They are playing without Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Tony Parker and Dejounte Murray right now.  They simply don’t have much talent or depth left. 

Golden State beat San Antonio 112-92 on the road in their only meeting this season.  Plays against any team (San Antonio) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, off a cover as a double-digit favorite are 52-19 (73.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Warriors Saturday.  

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers have quietly gone 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games, winning by an average of 15.1 points per game.  They are not only winning, they are dominating. 

The 76ers beat the Pelicans 100-82 at home last night.  That makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they had two days off before yesterday so they are fresher than most teams on a back-to-back.  And Joel Embiid has recently been cleared to play the 2nd of back-to-backs, and he is expected to play tonight. 

The Clippers are also in a back-to-back situation after winning in Detroit last night.  The difference is they actually have to travel to Philadelphia, while the 76ers get to stay at home.  Given their recent home success, I think we are getting the 76ers at a huge discount as only 2.5-point favorites. 

Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS in home games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  The 76ers are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Philadelphia is 56-25-2 ATS in its last 83 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the 76ers Saturday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -1.5 

In the midst of a season-high five-game losing streak, it’s safe to say the Miami Heat will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight over the Milwaukee Bucks.  It has been more bad luck in close games than anything as all five losses came by 8 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer. 

Look for the Heat to get back in the win column tonight against a Milwaukee Bucks team they have owned of late.  The Heat are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Bucks, winning by an average of 13.3 points per game. 

I think the Bucks are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers due to going 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have played an extremely soft schedule during this stretch with six of those eight games against teams with losing records.  The Bucks still have issues at point guard as starter Malcolm Brogdon and backup Matthew Dellavedova both remain out. 

Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The Bucks are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with the Heat Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA this season.  That has especially been the case of late.  The 76ers are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games, winning by an average of 14.7 points per game. 

Now the 76ers get to host a struggling New Orleans Pelicans team that just lost DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury.  The Pelicans have gone 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their five games since Cousins went down, losing those four games by an average of 13.8 points per game. 

Philadelphia is 14-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The 76ers are 11-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Philadelphia is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The 76ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.  Take the 76ers Friday. 

20* Clippers/Pistons ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Detroit -3 

The Detroit Pistons have been re-energized since trading for Blake Griffin.  The Pistons have gone 5-0 since trading for him, and he’s averaging 21.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists since joining Detroit. 

When Los Angeles signed Griffin to a five-year, $171 million contract in July, it was understood that he would be a ‘Clipper for Life’.  But Doc Rivers and the front office bailed on him, and you can bet that he is going to want to exact some revenge on his former team here tonight. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Detroit) - after going over the total by 48 or more total points in their last 10 games, when playing on Friday nights are 38-17 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Pistons are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. Western Conference foes, including 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The home team is 5-1-1- ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Pistons Friday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 

Off there straight road losses, the Portland Trail Blazers returned home highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Charlotte Hornets.  They played three road games in four days and lost all three.  But now they have had two days off since last playing on Monday and will be fresh and ready to go. 

The Blazers have been dominant at home for over a month now.  The Blazers are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games overall.  Each of their last five home victories have come by 7 points or more.  Look of them to get back on track at home tonight. 

The Hornets are just 8-16 on the road this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The Blazers are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Hornets, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine home meetings. 

The Hornets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. Western Conference teams.  Charlotte is 6-15 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Hornets are 12-27 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the past two seasons.  Charlotte is 1-14 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

20* T’Wolves/Cavs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are completely broken.  They are now just 7-14 SU & 3-18 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  They are coming off a 98-116 loss at lowly Orlando last night, so now they’ll be playing the second of a back-to-back. 

It’s not like the Cavs have even been competitive in some of these losses.  In fact, each of their last six losses have come by double-digits.  And now without Kevin Love for 6-8 weeks due to a broken hand, it’s not going to get better any time soon for the Cavaliers.  Lebron James is at a loss for words every night, and this team just isn’t together at all. 

Conversely, Minnesota is living up to the massive expectations they had coming into the season with the additions of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague.  They are fully healthy right now and have put together a 34-22 record on the season.  And the Timberwolves come in fresh and ready to go as they last played on Saturday, giving them three full days off to prepare for Cleveland. 

Minnesota beat Cleveland 127-99 at home in their first meeting this season on January 8th.  Cleveland is 1-10 ATS off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more over the past three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Cleveland is 5-24 ATS in its last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2 

I love this spot for the New York Knicks tonight.  They are coming off a bad loss to the Atlanta Hawks in which they blew a 5-point lead late.  That has them undervalued coming into this game tonight, while the Bucks are overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games overall. 

It’s also a revenge spot for the Knicks.  They just lost 90-92 in Milwaukee a few days ago on Friday, and now they get a chance for revenge at home this time around.  The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bucks. 

Milwaukee is dealing with all kinds of injuries right now.  Malcolm Brogdon remains out with a knee injury, Mathew Dellavedove is out tonight with an ankle injury, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to play tonight despite leaving their last game with a foot injury.  He’ll be far from 100% for this one. 

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New York) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent that scored 105 points or more in their previous game are 55-27 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  The Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one days’ rest.  Take the Knicks Tuesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4.5 

The Toronto Raptors will be looking to make a statement tonight.  They are in second place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the Boston Celtics by 2 games for the top spot.  Now they get to host the Celtics and will be highly motivated for a victory because of it. 

The Celtics have managed to go 3-0 without Kyrie Irving.  But all three of those wins came at home, and they were against the Knicks, Hawks and Blazers.  They needed a buzzer-beater to beat the Blazers.  Irving is still questionable to return tonight.  And they are still without Marcus Smart, and Marcus Morris is questionable tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Raptors are fully healthy and dominating.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall with three of those victories coming by 12 points or more.  Toronto is a sensational 21-4 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.4 points per game on average. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Toronto is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Boston, winning all four by 6 points or more.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2.5 

The Detroit Pistons are re-engergized with the trade for Blake Griffin.  They are 3-0 since trading for him and at 25-26, can get back to .500 with a win tonight.  Look for them to keep rolling at home tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers. 

The Blazers will be lacking energy tonight.  That’s because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  And they’re likely to suffer a hangover from their buzzer-beating 96-97 loss at Boston yesterday. 

The Pistons have certainly had the Blazers’ number, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  They have won their last two home meetings with the Blazers by 7 and 20 points.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Detroit. 

Portland is 1-9 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 6-18 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Detroit is 29-12 ATS in its last 41 home games with a total set of 210 to 219.5.  The Pistons are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Pistons Monday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -5 

The New York Knicks are showing great value as only 5-point home favorites over the Atlanta Hawks today.  The Knicks will be highly motivated for a victory today after back-to-back road losses at Boston and Milwaukee coming in. 

But now the Knicks return home, where they are 16-9 SU & 16-9 ATS on the season.  The Hawks own the worst road record in the NBA this season at 4-21.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Knicks have to be more than 5-point favorites here. 

The Knicks are 12-3 ATS in home games off two more more consecutive unders over the past two seasons.  The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/Clippers UNDER 222 

There are several reasons to like the UNDER today in this game between the Bulls and Clippers.  For starters, it’s a rare early Saturday start time, so I expect both teams to be sleep-walking through it at a slow tempo.  But player injuries/trades is the biggest reason to like the UNDER. 

Chicago just traded away Nikola Mirotic, its leading scorer to the Pelicans. Its new leading scorer is now Lauri Markannen (15.3 ppg), who is now out for personal reasons today.  And third-leading scorer Kris Dunn (13.7 ppg, 6.4 apg) remains out with a concussion.  It’s safe to say that the Bulls’ offense will be extremely limited today without this trio. 

For the Clippers, they traded away Blake Griffin to the Pistons this week and got back Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley and some draft picks in return.  Losing Griffin will hurt their offense, but they do get one of the best defensive guards in the league in Bradley to improve their defense.  Both Harris and Bradley will be making their debuts for the Clippers today, and I expect them to be lost offensively, which would only be natural. 

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  In fact, the Bulls and Clippers have combined for 215 or fewer points in each of their last 16 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 16-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today’s huge total of 222 points.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +5.5 

The Utah Jazz are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 129-99 win over the Golden State Warriors, handing the defending champs their worst loss of the season.  It’s only human nature for them to let down now off such a big win. 

The Suns won their lone meeting with the Jazz this season 97-88 at home as 7.5-point underdogs.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 9-3 SU & 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Suns are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. 

The Jazz are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Utah is 7-19 SU & 11-15 ATS in all road games this season.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - off an upset win as an underdog, on Friday nights are 63-30 (67.7%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Suns Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Thunder UNDER 223 

This total has gotten out of hand tonight.  It has been bet all the way up to 223, and I look for it to finish well below the number tonight.  There are several reasons the UNDER is a great bet tonight. 

For starters, Oklahoma City is running on fumes tonight.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They just had to play in the altitude in Denver last night, so they will be tired.  They won’t be looking to push the tempo at all in this one. 

For the Pelicans, they just lost DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending injury.  He was in the midst of an MVP-caliber season.  The Pelicans won’t be nearly as efficient offensively without him.  That has shown in the last two games without Cousins as they were held to 103 points against the Clippers and 103 against the Kings. 

Oklahoma City is 20-6 UNDER off a division game over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 66-40 UNDER in all road games over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Pelicans are nine road games.  The UNDER is 15-4 in Thunder last 19 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (New Orleans) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 33-12 (73.3%) over the last five seasons.  This same system applies to Oklahoma City as well.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -3 

I love the situation for the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 105-96 road loss to Indiana on January 29th just a few days ago.  Now they get the Pacers at home this time around.  The Pacers shot 54.2% in that game while the Hornets shot 44.6%.  I think that will be reversed tonight. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings.  In fact, the home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Hornets have won their last three home meetings with the Pacers by 12, 22 and 7 points, respectively. 

The Hornets are 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Charlotte is 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings with Indiana.  The Hornets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Friday games.  The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games.  Bet the Hornets Friday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 214 

With John Wall out for the Washington Wizards, I think this total has been set too high tonight.  The Wizards are a completely different offense without him.  They get a ton of easy buckets in transition because of his speed when he’s in there, but now they have to become a much more methodical team without him. 

And the Wizards and Raptors have already played in two low-scoring games in their first two meetings this year when Wall was healthy.  They combined for 203 points in their first meeting on November 5th and 191 points in their 2nd meeting on November 19th.  Now the books have set this total at 214, showing we have a ton of value on the UNDER based on the first two meetings. 

Toronto is 16-4 UNDER in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Washington is 15-6 UNDER off an ATS win this season.  Toronto is 15-5 UNDER versus good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  Backup PG Fred VanVleet is out for Toronto, and sharpshooter CJ Miles is questionable as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Knicks/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on New York +8.5 

This is a great spot to fade the Boston Celtics.  They are coming off a four-game road trip and this will be their first game back home.  I always like fading teams following an extended road trip in their first game back home because of all the off-court distractions they have to deal with when they get back. 

The Celtics aren’t playing well at all right now as it is.  They are 2-5 in their last seven games overall, going through their worst stretch of the season.  Marcus Smart has shown his value to this team because they have not played well without him, and he remains out tonight.  The Celtics cannot be laying 8.5 points to the Knicks with the way they are playing right now. 

The Knicks are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after a 111-95 home win over Brooklyn last night.  But that effect is negated because the Knicks had three days off prior to that game.  So they’ll still be fresh and ready to go despite the back-to-back situation. 

New York is 12-3 ATS after having won two of its last three games this season.  The Knicks are 18-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 70% over the last three years.  The Celtics are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Knicks Wednesday.

Note: I put this pick in when the line was +8.5.  It has since dropped to +6 as of this writing due to Kyrie Irving being ruled out.  I think it's certainly still worth a bet at +6 because Irving is worth more than 2.5 points to this team, especially with Marcus Smart already out and the Celtics lacking talent at the guard positions outside of those two.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are showing great value as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They have been a great bet all season with a 30-20-1 ATS record in their 51 games thus far as they have consistently been undervalued. 

I think oddsmakers are putting too much stock in the fact that the Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  But they had two days off prior to to their game against the Knicks last night, and it’s a short trip to Brooklyn from New York.  And the Nets are one of the deeper teams in the NBA so they aren’t affected as much by back-to-backs as most teams. 

The 76ers are in the midst of a four-game road trip that concludes here tonight.  They have lost their last two games by double-digits by 10 at Oklahoma City and by 12 at Milwaukee.  I just don’t think they should be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight as 7.5-point road favorites at Brooklyn. 

Brooklyn is 16-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Nets are 19-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  Take the Nets Wednesday. 

20* Blazers/Clippers TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers have been playing their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks.  They are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Now they have had three days off having last played on Friday and will be fresh and ready to go tonight against the Clippers.  The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest. 

The Clippers are going through some turmoil right now and cannot be trusted.  They just traded away franchise player Blake Griffin to Detroit yesterday.  They got back Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris in return, but both are doubtful to play tonight.  That leaves the Clippers extremely short-handed for this game against Portland. 

The Blazers have actually played some of their best basketball on the road this season, going 13-12 SU & 14-9-2 ATS.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Portland is 8-2-3 ATS in its last 13 games following a straight up win by more than 10 points. 

Plays against home teams (LA Clippers) - after four straight games where both teams score 100 points or more against opponent after scoring 100 points or more in five straight games are 42-18 (70%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-0 since Jason Kidd was fired.  They have returned with a new focus and realize they weren’t playing hard enough or well enough for Kidd.  Their last two games have resulted in a 25-point home win over Brooklyn and a 14-point road win at Chicago. 

Now the Bucks will be out for revenge from a 94-116 road loss at Philadelphia on January 20th just over a week ago.  It’s certainly worth noting that the Bucks were short-handed in that game, playing without both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Malcolm Brogdon.  Anteteokounmpo is back healthy and playing at an MVP level, while Brogdon could make his return tonight. 

This is a tough spot for the 76ers, who will be playing their third straight road game, the second of a back-to-back, and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I don’t know that they’ll have much left in the tank after facing the Spurs and Thunder on the road the past two games, and now making this trip to Milwaukee to play for a second consecutive day. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - a good shooting team making 48% or better on the season, after two straight games making 9 or more 3-point shots are 145-80 (64.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Bucks are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  The 76ers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  Take the Bucks Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3 

The Indiana Pacers have been one of the most underrated teams all season.  They have played without star center Myles Turner for much of the campaign, but he is healthy now and the Pacers will be dangerous moving forward. 

The Charlotte Hornets have been as inconsistent as they come.  They are just 20-28 SU & 19-25-4 ATS on the season.  They are 6-14 SU & 7-10-1 ATS on the road.  They are getting way too much respect from the books as only 3-point road underdogs to the Pacers tonight. 

Indiana is 19-5 straight up in its last 24 home meetings with Charlotte.  The Pacers have won their last two home meetings with the Hornets by 21 and 16 points, respectively.  The home team has won five straight meetings in this series overall. 

The Pacers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.  Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Charlotte is 4-9-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pacers Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2 

The Chicago Bulls come in highly motivated for a victory following three consecutive losses, including two by 5 points or fewer.  Look for them to get back on track with an ‘upset’ home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks today. 

The Bulls are an impressive 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  They have been undervalued for a couple months now.  Chicago is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. 

The Bulls have owned the Bucks, going 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Milwaukee this season, actually winning each of their first two meetings on the road 115-109 as 8.5-point dogs and 115-106 as 7.5-point dogs.  Now there’s no way they should be underdogs at home. 

The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Bulls are 17-6 ATS off a home game this season.  Chicago is 9-1 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams that get out rebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season.  The Bucks are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .600.  Milwaukee is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 Sunday games.  Roll with the Bulls Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Heat UNDER 205 

This will already be the 4th and final meeting of the 2017-18 season between the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat.  It’s safe to say that they are familiar with one another, and that familiarity certainly favors the defenses. 

These teams just played one week ago today with Miami winning 106-105 at Charlotte.  I think this rematch will be much more low scoring, especially with the way the Heat are playing of late.  And the Hornets have lost the first three meetings, so they will be fighting extra hard defensively to try and avoid the season sweep. 

The Heat have combined for 189 points with Houston and 177 points with Sacramento in their last two games coming in.  The Heat are one of the better defensive teams in the league giving up 101.5 points per game, but their offense has struggled all season at 100.7 points per game. 

Charlotte is 18-6 UNDER when revenging a home loss over the last two seasons.  Miami is 21-6 UNDER when its opponent allowed 100 points or more in its previous game.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Heat last 13 home games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hornets last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in in Hornets last six games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Miami.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

15* Knicks/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 217 

The Knicks are playing little defense at all right now, which is why they have gone through a 4-14 stretch over their last 18 games.  That has been even more apparent here of late as the OVER is 9-0 in Knicks last nine games overall. 

I think the Knicks are just a tired team right now, and that’s showing up on defense.  They are in the midst of a 7-game road trip and conclude that trip tonight.  During this 9-0 OVER run, the Knicks and their opponents have combined to average 231.6 points per game.  That’s nearly 15 points more than tonight’s posted total of 217. 

I don’t see much changing tonight against a Phoenix Suns team that doesn’t play any defense, either.  The Suns have allowed at least 100 points in 12 consecutive games coming in.  They are giving up 112.2 points per game on the season.  The Knicks are allowing 110.3 points per game on the road. 

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings as the Suns and Knicks have combined to average 222 points per game.  The Knicks beat the Suns 120-107 for 227 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Play on the OVER on any team (New York) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, on Friday nights are 28-5 (84.8%) over the last five seasons.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Raptors UNDER 208.5 

It’s easy to see there’s value with the UNDER in tonight’s matchup between the Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors when you look at the recent series history.  Points will be hard to come by tonight. 

The Raptors and Jazz have combined for 209 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They have averaged just 197 combined points in those five meetings, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight’s posted total of 208.5 

Both teams have played in some very low-scoring games here of late.  Utah combined for 194 points with Atlanta and then 193 points with Detroit in its last two games despite going to overtime against the Pistons.  Toronto combined for 187 with Detroit, 169 with San Antonio and 201 with Atlanta in three of its last four games. 

Utah is 8-1 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Toronto is 14-5 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last eight games following a win.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Raptors last 10 home games. 

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Utah) - off an upset win as an underdog against an opponent that’s off a road win are 48-19 (71.6%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Cavs UNDER 223.5 

The Pacers and Cavs are extremely familiar with one another.  This will be their 4th and final meeting of the season already.  Based on the way the first three have been trending, it’s safe to say there’s value with the UNDER tonight. 

In Game 1, they combined for 231 points in a shootout.  But Game 2 saw just 208 combined points, and Game 3 saw even less at 192.  As teams become more familiar with each other, the defenses have the advantage. 

The Cavs are looking to do anything they can to play better defense amidst a 1-6 stretch.  Now they have decided to move Kevin Love from Center to Power Forward.  They are inserting Tristan Thompson into the starting center role now, and this will make them a better defensive team. 

Indiana is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 115 points or more this season.  The Pacers are 14-4 UNDER off one or more consecutive overs this season.  Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 220 or more (Cleveland) - excellent free throw shooting team making 79% or better against a good FT shooting team (76%-79%) after 42-plus games are 25-4 (86.2%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Wizards/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -4.5 

Since December 1st, the Oklahoma City Thunder are 14-0 when all five of their normal starters play.  That’s Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Andre Roberson and Steven Adams.  They are full healthy now and have all five starters going tonight. 

The Thunder will also be playing with a chip on their shoulder in the short-term, especially Paul George.  Westbrook and head coach Billy Donovan have both been vocal in the media about how George should have made the All-Star team.  He was arguably the biggest snub in the entire NBA, and he’ll be playing with added motivation moving forward. 

The Wizards have lost five of their last eight games overall.  They are in turmoil right now.  Their players’ only meeting clearly did not go very well.  In their first game after the meeting, they lost 75-98 on the road to the Dallas Mavericks.  And now they are dealing with an injury to one of their best players on Otto Porter Jr., who is questionable with a hip injury tonight. 

Washington is 3-11 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Washington.  The Thunder are 8-0 SU in their last eight home meetings with the Wizards, winning by an average is 11.1 points per game.  The Wizards are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet the Thunder Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +6 

The Chicago Bulls continue to be greatly underrated despite going 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  They are also 15-9 SU in their last 24 games.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall heading into this showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The 76ers are starting to get too much love after going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Now they are being asked to lay 6 points at home to these red-hot Bulls.  This is only the second time in the past 14 games that the 76ers have been a favorite of 6 points or more. 

The Bulls have really had the 76ers’ number in recent years, going 14-1 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That’s another reason they should not be catching 6 points in a game they will likely win outright again tonight.  Especially with the 76ers playing without three key players in Markelle Fultz, J.J. Redick and T.J. McConnell. 

Chicago is 9-1 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game.  The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Philadelphia.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday. 

15* Cavs/Spurs TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers held a players’ only meeting on Monday following their 124-148 home loss to Oklahoma City on Saturday.  They hashed out their problems, and I look for them to put forth a big effort tonight in San Antonio working on two days’ rest. 

The Spurs aren’t playing much better right now.  They are just 2-4 in their last six games overall with losses to the Lakers, Hawks and Pacers in there.  A big reason for the Spurs’ struggles right now is all of their injuries, while the Cavs come in healthy. 

The Spurs are without Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol and Manu Ginobli.  Those are four of their best players, and they simply don’t have the talent on the bench to replace them.  Until they get healthy, the Spurs are going to continue to struggle to win games. 

Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Antonio) - after scoring 90 points or less in two straight games against an opponent after two straight games where both teams scored 100 or more points are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Cavaliers Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Chicago Bulls +6.5 

The Chicago Bulls continue to be massively underrated despite going 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  They are also 15-8 SU in their last 23 games overall.   

Now they are catching 6.5 points against the New Orleans Pelicans Monday.  I’ll gladly continue backing them at a tremendous value in a game they certainly have the ability to win outright tonight. 

The road team has dominated this series.  The road team is 23-9-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings.  The Bulls are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to New Orleans. 

Chicago is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Bulls come in rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days.  That’s important because Chicago is 12-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Bet the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10 

The Charlotte Hornets can’t be laying double-digits against anyone right now.  They are just 18-26 on the season, including 12-13 at home.  I’ll gladly fade them here tonight in the double-digit favorite role. 

Certainly there hasn’t been a lot to like about the Kings of late as they have lost seven straight games coming in.  But that also gives us the opportunity to ‘buy low’ on them at this double-digit price. 

Charlotte is 3-13 ATS in home games off two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  The Hornets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Charlotte is 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Plays on road underdogs (Sacramento) after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread against opponent that covered two of their last three are 164-101 (61.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Kings Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Magic/Celtics UNDER 208 

The reason for the success of the Boston Celtics has been their work on the defensive end of the court.  The Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.5 points per 100 possessions. 

But despite being such a young team, the Celtics actually run more of an old-school offense under Brad Stevens.  They slow it down and get the best shot available.  In fact, the Celtics rank just 20th in the NBA in pace.  Now the Celtics are dealing with an injury to their best player in Kyrie Irving, who missed last game with a shoulder injury. 

The Magic have a ton of injuries of their own right now that have really hampered them, especially offensively.  The Celtics are playing without Nikola Vucevic, Terrance Ross, Jonathan Isaac and Arron Afflalo.  The UNDER is 12-6 in their last 16 games overall and they have been held to less than 100 points in eight of those games. 

I think both teams will be sleep walking through this game Sunday with such an early start time, which will help aid the UNDER.  Boston is 22-9 UNDER after allowing 90 points or less over the last two seasons.  Orlando is 12-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 70% over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Magic last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/Pelicans UNDER 212 

Memphis at New Orleans just played on January 10th with Memphis winning 105-102 at home.  So these teams will be very familiar with one another playing just over a week later here Saturday, which favors the defenses. 

This has been a very low-scoring series as it is.  In fact, the Grizzlies and Pelicans have combined to average just 189.4 points per game at the end of regulation in their last nine meetings.  That’s roughly 23 points less than tonight’s posted total of 212. 

Each of the last nine meetings between Memphis and New Orleans have seen 207 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 212-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +9 

I like the situation for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They will be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep to the Nuggets after losing each of the first three meetings in this season.  This will be their 4th and final meeting and the last chance for the Suns to beat the Nuggets. 

Injuries to the Suns were a big reason for those three previous losses.  And now that they are mostly healthy they are ready to give Denver a run for its money.  Plus, the Suns are rested having two days off coming into this game, and this will be just their 4th game in 12 days dating back further. 

Denver will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days and its 9th game in 15 days.  The Nuggets played in Los Angeles on Wednesday and there’s certainly some distractions that go with that.  Also, I don’t expect the Nuggets to be very motivated at all tonight after already beating the Suns three times this season. 

The Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days’ rest.  Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss.  The Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet the Suns Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +10.5 

The Orlando Magic have been grossly undervalued here in recent weeks.  That’s because they have gone 2-16 straight up in their last 18 games overall.  But now they are starting to catch too many points on a nightly basis, and they shouldn’t be catching double-digit points against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. 

The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 4 to Cleveland as 8.5-point home underdogs, by 7 at Milwaukee as 10.5-point underdogs, by 6 at Washington as 10.5-point dogs, and beat Minnesota by 6 as 8.5-point home dogs in their four covers.  So that also makes this a revenge spot for the Magic, who will be looking for payback from their 127-131 home loss to the Cavs on January 6th. 

Cleveland cannot be laying this kind of weight right now.  The Cavaliers are just 3-9 SU & 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are coming off a gut-wrenching 108-118 home loss to the Warriors, their biggest rivals.  That sets them up for a hangover spot here as they won’t be nearly as excited to face the Magic tonight, a team they just beat 12 days ago. 

Perhaps my favorite trend of the entire season is that Cleveland is 0-11 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.  They are actually losing these games 111.3 to 112.2 on average.  The Cavaliers are 1-10 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season as well.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the last few weeks.  They have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have won three of their last four home games with their only loss coming by 2 as 4.5-point underdogs to Washington. 

Now they get to face a New York Knicks team that has been dreadful on the road all season.  The Knicks are just 5-15 SU & 8-12 ATS on the road this year.  They are losing by 7.4 points per game and giving up 107.9 points per game on the highway. 

The Grizzlies are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Knicks.  Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Memphis.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +2.5 

Despite having one of the worst records in the NBA, the Atlanta Hawks have been a real money maker for bettors.  They are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Now they are home underdogs to the New Orleans Pelicans when they shouldn’t be. 

This is a tough spot for the Pelicans, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And they are coming off back-to-back overtime road wins against the Knicks and Celtics.  They are in a clear letdown spot here after that huge win in Boston last night, and they won’t have much left in the tank. 

This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for the Hawks, who beat the Spurs 102-99 as 5.5-point home underdogs last time out.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) off a road win by 3 points or less, when playing on back-to-back days are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Hawks Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Hornets -1 

After a slow start to the season, the Hornets are starting to rally and make their playoff push.  The slow start was due to injuries and the loss of head coach Steve Clifford, who just recently returned to the bench.  The Hornets have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and are now pretty much healthy. 

The Wizards just aren’t playing very well at all right now.  They have lost three of their last five despite playing all five games at home.  And they are also 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Now they continue getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 1-point road underdogs to the Hornets here. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings.  The Wizards are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5 

The Boston Celtics have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA all season.  They are 34-10 SU & 27-15-2 ATS in their 44 games this season.  And now they’re still not getting the respect they deserve as only 4.5-point home favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. 

This is a great spot for the Celtics as well.  They will be fresh and ready to go.  This will be just their 2nd game in 10 days, which is extremely rare in the NBA.  But it’s easy to see why as they played the 76ers in London on January 11th, so they needed extra time off to travel.  But this extra rest will be a huge boost for the team moving forward. 

The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Pelicans.  Boston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The Pelicans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Celtics Tuesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +8.5

This game is the perfect storm.  The Orlando Magic couldn’t possibly be more undervalued right now after going just 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall.  That has started to show of late as they’ve gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games, losing by 4 to Cleveland, by 7 at Milwaukee and by 6 at Washington.  They are starting to catch too many points. 

Conversely, the Timberwolves couldn’t be more overvalued right now.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But all five games were at home.  Now they hit the road where they have lost three of their last four games to Brooklyn, Boston and Milwaukee out East. 

Minnesota is 18-43 ATS in its last 61 games after scoring 120 points or more.  The Timberwolves are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Timberwolves.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Magic Tuesday. 

15* Warriors/Cavs TNT Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 233.5 

No two teams are more familiar with one another than the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors. After all, they have met in the NBA Finals in three consecutive seasons.  And familiarity makes it tougher on the offenses and easier on the defenses because they know each other’s tendencies. 

That was certainly on display in the first meeting of the season between the Warriors and Cavs.  That game saw Golden State win 99-92 and stay well UNDER the 215.5-point total on Christmas Day.  Now they are playing just a few weeks later and the total is set at 233.5, so I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER tonight. 

Cleveland is 19-7 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  Golden State is 19-5 UNDER after leading its previous game by 15 or more points at halftime over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six Monday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday. 

20* Lakers/Grizzlies TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis -2.5 

The Memphis Grizzlies will be playing more inspired today than they would on any average night.  It’s Martin Luther King Day, and with Memphis being the place of MLK’s death, this day holds an even more special day for these players and their fans.  Look for a big effort from them tonight. 

The Grizzlies have been much more competitive of late, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I believe they are currently undervalued.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 meetings.  The Grizzlies are 6-0 straight up in their last six home meetings with the Lakers. 

Los Angeles is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  But three of those four games were at home, and three were against some of the worst teams in the NBA in Atlanta, Sacramento and Dallas.  The Lakers had lost 12 of their previous 13 games prior to this streak. 

The Lakers could be without two of their best players tonight in Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, who are both questionable.  The Lakers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Grizzlies Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Bulls UNDER 207 

Few teams play as hard defensively as the Miami Heat.  That was certainly on display yesterday as the Heat won their seventh consecutive game with a n impressive 97-79 home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks.  I think their offense will suffer playing the second of a back-to-back here, but their defensive intensity will be there to make up for it as they go for their 8th straight victory. 

But it’s the head-to-head history between Miami and Chicago that has me really intrigued by this UNDER. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  All six meetings saw 205 or fewer combined points.  The Bulls and Heat have averaged just 195.2 combined points per game in those six games, which is roughly 12 points less than today’s posted total of 207. 

Miami is 20-6 UNDER in its last 26 games off a win by 10 points or more.  The Heat are 10-1 UNDER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots per game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Heat last nine games playing on 0 days’ rest.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 35-17 in Heat last 52 road games.  The UNDER is 15-4 in Bulls last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2 

They Miami Heat have now won six straight games.  Now they are getting some reinforcements today as both James Johnson and Justise Winslow are returning from injury.  Now at basically full strength, this team is going to continue being dangerous moving forward. 

The Bucks have struggled of late, going 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are coming off a disappointing 94-108 home loss to the Golden State Warriors Friday in which they blew a 4th quarter lead.  I think they’ll suffer a hangover from that loss to the defending champs. 

Miami is 12-1 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 16-5 ATS versus poor rebounding teams getting outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 Sunday games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1 

We are certainly getting a nice value with the Chicago Bulls at home tonight as only 1-point favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They just have to win the game essentially to cover, and this team has been doing a lot of winning and covering of late. 

Indeed, the Bulls are 12-7 SU in their last 19 games and 15-5 ATS in their last 10 games.  They have consistently been undervalued over the past month and that hasn’t changed one bit here tonight.  I love the passion this team has played with ever since Nikola Mirotic returned to the lineup. 

The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  None of those four meetings were even close as the home team won by 11 points or more in all four meetings and by an average of 17 points per game. 

Detroit is 4-17 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 9-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams who attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game this season.  The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  The Pistons are 20-43 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Bulls Saturday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +9.5 

Both the Wizards and Nets played last night, so there will be no advantage there.  The Wizards beat the Magic 125-119, while the Nets beat the Hawks 110-105.  But the difference here is that the Nets have the better bench and will be the fresher team because nobody played big minutes last night. 

Only one player played more than 29 minutes for the Nets, which was the 33 by Allen Crabbe.  Conversely, the Wizards had their three studs in John Wall (36), Bradley Beal (36) and Otto Porter (39) all play big minutes as they were fighting tooth and nail to beat the lowly Magic. 

The Nets have owned the Wizards this season, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in the two previous meetings.  They won 103-98 as 3.5-point home underdogs, and 119-84 as 6-point home dogs.  Now they find themselves catching a whopping 9.5 points in the third meeting, which is simply too much. 

The Nets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Brooklyn is 12-3 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  Washington is 4-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Nets Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +9 

The Minnesota Timberwolves have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  This run has them overvalued now.  And the Timberwolves are clearly primed for a letdown after back-to-back huge home wins over the Cavaliers and Thunder. 

Plays against favorites (Minnesota) after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team winning 60% to 75% or more of their games on the season are 38-12 (76%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Conversely, the Knicks are undervalued after going just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But six of those eight losses came by 9 points or fewer, so they have been competitive.  And seven of those 10 games were on the road.  It has been a tough stretch, but the Knicks should be rejuvenated now as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days. 

The Knicks have owned the Timberwolves over the past two seasons, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS despite being the underdog in three of those four meetings.  They just have the winning formula against the Timberwolves, and I think they will be the more motivated team in this matchup. 

The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one day of rest.  The Timberwolves are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  New York is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +2.5 

I’m not sure how the Cleveland Cavaliers can actually be favored tonight against the Indiana Pacers with how poorly they are playing.  After all, the Cavaliers are 6-25-1 ATS as favorites this season, so they have been money burners all year. 

And now the Cavs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after yet another ugly 99-133 loss in Toronto last night against a Raptors team that was playing without two starters in Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka.  That followed up a 99-127 loss at Minnesota the game before.  The Cavs are now just 2-6 SU in their last eight games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 contests.  And now they’ll be without Isaiah Thomas, who is resting in this one. 

The Pacers haven’t won a game when Victor Oladipo has sat out.  But he returned from injury three games ago and the Pacers have gone 2-1 since.  They beat the Bulls 125-86 and the Bucks 109-96 while losing to the red-hot Miami Heat 106-114.  But they shot just 1-of-18 from 3-point range against the Heat, yet were still tied with a few minutes to go.  They won’t shoot that poorly again, especially not against a Cleveland defense that has allowed 129 points per game in their last three contests. 

Indiana is 9-1 ATS after having lost six or seven of its last eight games over the past two seasons.  It is winning by 7.8 points per game on average in this spot.  The Cavs are 1-9 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road gams.  The Pacers have won each of their first two meetings this season with the Cavs outright as underdogs.  Indiana is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Pacers Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings +1.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they are clearly in a letdown spot after beating the Warriors on the road last night.  Well, the Warriors sat both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, so it comes with an asterisk. 

The Clippers won’t be nearly as excited to face the Kings, who will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping five of their last six games overall.  But in their last two home games they beat Denver 106-98 as 8.5-point dogs and led San Antonio nearly the entire way until the closing minutes, losing 100-107 as 5-point dogs. 

While the Kings are relatively healthy, the Clippers have all kinds of injury issues that will make this back-to-back that much more difficult.  They have been without Blake Griffin, who remains questionable with a concussion.  Austin Rivers, Danilo Gallinari and Patrick Beverly are all out.  C.J. Williams is doubtful, while Milos Teodosic is questionable. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - off a loss to a division rival, in January games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Clippers) - off two or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 74-39 (65.5%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Kings Thursday. 

15* Cavs/Raptors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 222 

The Toronto Raptors are going to be without two of their best offensive weapons in point guard Kyle Lowry and power forward Serge Ibaka tonight.  They are going to have to muck it up and make this an ugly game if they want any chance to beat the Cavaliers tonight, which is why I think there’s value with the UNDER. 

The Cavaliers are frustrated right now, losing five of their last seven games overall coming in.  It can mostly be attributed to poor defense, but their offense has also been struggling.  They have been held to 101 or fewer points in all five of those losses.  I look for them to put a renewed effort defensively tonight after losing 99-127 to the Timberwolves on Monday.  They have had two days off since to fix their defense. 

These teams are very familiar with one another after squaring off in the playoffs each of the past two seasons.  I think that familiarity will make points harder to come by.  In fact, 14 of the last 17 meetings in this series have seen less than 222 points, which is what this total has been set at tonight. 

Cleveland is 10-2 UNDER off a non-conference game this season.  Toronto is 11-3 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavaliers’ last eight vs. NBA Atlantic opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Raptors last six home games.  The UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in Toronto.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Grizzlies UNDER 213 

Just looking at the recent head-to-head history in this series it’s easy to see that there is value with the UNDER tonight.  Plus the fact that the Pelicans are going to be without their best player in Anthony Davis makes me like the UNDER even more. 

The Pelicans and Grizzlies have combined for 205 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight straight meetings, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 213-point total.  They have averaged just 190.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 23 points less than this total.  The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Memphis. 

Memphis is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus good 3-point shooting teams making 36% or more of their attempts this season.  New Orleans is 14-4 UNDER in road games vs. division opponents over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 8-1 UNDER vs. division opponents this season.  The Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS after covering four of their last five games against the spread over the last two seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are going to be without their best player in Anthony Davis tonight.  They haven’t been playing well of late anyways, going 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have upset home losses to Dallas and New York during this stretch, and an 18-point road loss at Minnesota. 

The Memphis Grizzlies are starting to play much better here of late.  They are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite playing four of their last five games on the road, and their lone home game was a 2-point loss to Washington as 4.5-point dogs. 

The Grizzlies have owned the Pelicans, going 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent off a loss by 6 points or less are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5 

The Pacers had lost five in a row before the return of Victor Oladipo.  He returned Saturday and sparked the Pacers’ 39-point win.  The Pacers then led the entire way in an impressive 109-96 home victory over the Milwaukee Bucks. 

The Heat are overvalued right now due to winning five straight games.  But now they’re in a tough spot as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 90-89 victory in Toronto against a Raptors team that was playing without Kyle Lowry last night.   

And now the Heat will likely be without one of their best players in James Johnson, who is expected to be suspended.  They were already missing Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow, and Tyler Johnson is questionable with a shoulder injuries.  That makes this back-to-back set even more difficult for them. 

Indiana is 10-0 straight up in its last 10 home meetings with Miami.  The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Indiana.  The Pacers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Miami is 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Raptors UNDER 207.5 

The Toronto Raptors just played a grueling 114-113 (OT) game in Brooklyn last night.  Kyle Lowry fell hard and hurt his tailbone, forcing him to leave the game.  It’s likely that he won’t be available tonight in this back-to-back set against the Heat, which would significantly hamper Toronto’s offense. 

The Heat prefer to play at a slow tempo.  They rank 27th in the NBA in pace at 96.8 possessions per game.  Miami is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, especially when Hassan Whiteside is healthy, which he hasn’t been for much of the season until recently.  And the Heat are just 22nd in offensive efficiency. 

But the heat-to-head history here is the reason this is such a good bet.  In fact, each of the last 11 meetings between Toronto and Miami have seen 205 combined points or less.  And two of those games even went to overtime.  They have averaged just 190.3 combined points per game in those 11 meetings, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight’s posted total of 207.5.  We’ll take this 11-0 system straight to the bank tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5 

I love the situation tonight for the Indiana Pacers.  They just lost to the Bucks 101-122 on the road on Wednesday, January 3rd.  Now they get their chance at revenge less than a week later, and this time around they will have their best player in Victor Oladipo. 

After losing five consecutive games and remaining winless when Oladipo sits, they got a big boost with his return on Saturday.  Oladipo went 9-of-11 shooting for 23 points and delivered nine assists with five steals in a 125-86 rout of the Chicago Bulls.   

Now the Pacers will be fresh as this is just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Bucks will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.  And the Pacers have owned the Bucks at home, going 34-12 straight up in their last 46 meetings. 

Plays on favorites (Indiana) - revenging a loss vs. opponent by 10 points or more against an opponent that’s off a road win are 106-60 (63.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  The Bucks are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central Division opponents.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Pacers Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward.  They have had a rough season injury-wise thus far, yet they’re still 20-18 on the year.  Look for this team to make a push into the All-Star Break after going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall. 

The Spurs have lost two of their last four to the Piston and 76ers with their two wins coming against the Knicks and Suns.  Unlike Portland, San Antonio is really banged up right now.  The Spurs are expected to be without Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Danny Green and Rudy Gay tonight. 

The Spurs are just 9-11 SU & 7-12-1 ATS on the road this season.  Plays on home favorites (Portland) after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in Sunday games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  Portland is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a straight up win by more than 10 points.  Take the Blazers Sunday.