15* Knicks/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 228

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Knicks and Celtics in a week and their 3rd meeting in 5 weeks.  In that first meeting back on January these teams combined for 220 points at the end of regulation, and then last week they combined for just 203 points at the end of regulation.

As you can see, this 228-point total is way higher than what the Knicks and Celtics combined for in their two recent meetings.  There is a ton of value on the UNDER as a result.  It will also be a National TV game on ESPN, so the defensive intensity will be there.

The UNDER is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 games following a double-digit home loss.  Boston is 12-4 UNDER vs. a team that wins 51-60% of their games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic have been one of the most profitable teams to back in the NBA over the past couple months.  They have gone 26-14 ATS in their last 40 games overall and continue to show up on a nightly basis.  They clearly aren't tanking.

The Portland Trail Blazers have some significant injuries that have led to them going just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all three victories coming at home.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in road games during this stretch losing by 18 at Atlanta, by 18 at Golden State, by 17 at Sacramento and by 8 at Chicago.  They are without both Simons (21.1 PPG) and Nurkic (13.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG) right now.

Orlando is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Magic are 16-6 ATS vs. Western Conference opponents this season.  Portland is 3-13 ATS vs. teams that win 40-49% of their games this season.  The Blazers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Orlando is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games when playing on one day of rest.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 222.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Raptors and Wizards.  They combined for 227 points in their first meeting on Thursday but there were fouls and a ton of made shots in the final minute that sent that game over the total.

The first meeting saw a total of 222 and this total for the rematch is a tick higher at 222.5.  So oddsmakers have failed to adjust for the familiarity factor, and we'll take advantage and back an UNDER that has a ton of value given the spot.

It also has a ton of value when you look at the head-to-head history.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 227, 214, 192, 209 and 181 points.  They have averaged just 204.6 combined points per game in their last five meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 222.5.

Toronto ranks 25th in pace while Washington ranks 21st, so both teams like to slow it down.  Toronto is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 road games after winning five or six of its last seven games.  Toronto is 17-6 UNDER in its last 23 home games after winning four or five of its last six games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall which includes two OT losses and a blown double-digit lead to the Warriors.  They are close to putting it together.

I think the Clippers fire back with an inspired effort tonight out for revenge from a historic 175-176 (double OT) loss to the Sacramento Kings in their first game back from the All-Star Break on February 24th.  Now they get their shot at revenge here a week later, and I think this one goes down to the wire again, so getting 6.5 points with the Clippers is a really nice value.

We'll 'sell high' on the Kings, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against a soft schedule of the Blazers, that double OT win over the Clippers and beating the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander twice by single-digits.

The Clippers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games after failing to cover four of their last five coming in.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Clippers) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against an opponent that went over the total by 48 or more points in their last seven games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* Grizzlies/Nuggets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 234

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The Nuggets and Grizzlies will be meeting for a 2nd time in 7 days.  The Grizzlies won the first meeting 112-94 for just 206 combined points.  It will be a similar low scoring game in the rematch here Friday.

The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the Grizzlies and Nuggets combining for 231 or fewer points in six of those seven meetings.  They have combined for 206, 196, 231, 240, 214, 203, and 214 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.

The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Grizzlies last 17 games overall.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Nuggets last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 27-11 in the last 38 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic -3.5

Tough break for the Charlotte Hornets after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, they lost their best player in La'Melo Ball (23.3 PPG, 8.4 APG, 6.3 RPG) to a season-ending injury.  They promptly lost by 14 at home to the Suns in their first game without him.  They are also without PJ Washington (15.3 PPG) right now.

The Orlando Magic are fully healthy and should make easy work of the short-handed Hornets.  The Magic continue to battle here down the stretch, especially when coming off a loss.  The Magic are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.

Dating back further, the Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Orlando is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 road games.  Charlotte is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Hornets will have questionable motivation the rest of the way without Ball.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  We'll 'buy low' on them after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  That assures they will be highly motivated for a victory, and now they've had a few games to work out their chemistry with Russell Westbrook.  At their best, this Clippers team is one of the best in the league and would crush this current version of the Golden State Warriors.

While the Clippers are fully healthy, the Warriors are without their two best players in Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins right now.  They have six players on the injury report currently including Jordan Poole.  This version of them isn't good enough to hang with the Clippers, not even at home.

Los Angeles is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games after failing to cover five or six of its last seven games coming in.  Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Clippers) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against a team that is off a home win where they scored 110 or more points are 31-7 (81.6%) since 1996.  Bet the Clippers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks following 15 consecutive victories.  But now is the spot they let down playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a comeback win at Brooklyn from 10 points down at halftime last night.

The Orlando Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past couple months.  They have gone 25-13 ATS in their last 38 games overall.  The Magic are fully healthy right now and ultra competitive even against the best teams in the NBA.

Indeed, the Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland +5.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They had lost three straight before crushing the Toronto Raptors 118-93 at home on Sunday.  Now they have had the last two days off and are rested and ready to go tonight.

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics will be playing in their 4th different city in 7 days.  They have been shaky since returning from the break, needing OT to beat the Pacers, winning by 3 over the 76ers and losing by 15 to the Knicks.  I fully expect this game to go down to the wire tonight.

The Cavaliers have had the Celtics number in their two meetings this season, pulling the 132-123 upset on the road as well as beating the Celtics at home.  They clearly match up well with them and that won't change here tonight.

Boston is 1-13 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite this season.  The Celtics are 0-10 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 10 points.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +10.5

The public is all over the Phoenix Suns tonight in anticipation of Kevin Durant's debut with the team.  That's why they are double-digit road favorites here when they shouldn't be, and we'll take advantage.  Chemistry will be an issue for the Suns in the immediate future trying to incorporate Durant, and he'll also be on a minutes restriction.

Couple that with the fact that La'Melo Ball just suffered a season-ending injury for the Hornets and the public is really on the Suns.  But teams tend to rally in their first game without their superstar, and the Hornets will do just that tonight.

The Hornets have quietly gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs of 5.5 points or more.  They still have plenty of talent without Ball to compete with the Suns with the likes of Oubre Jr., Rozier and Hayward all healthy right now.

The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest.  The Hornets are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers +9

The Indiana Pacers are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with their lone loss coming in OT to the Celtics.  They went on the road and beat the Magic by 13 last time out, and I think they take the Dallas Mavericks to the wire tonight.  They are as healthy as they have been all season which is a big reason for their recent surge.

The Dallas Mavericks are over-hyped right now due to trading for Kyrie Irving.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone victory coming against the worst team in the NBA in the San Antonio Spurs.  Asking the Mavericks to beat the Pacers by double-digits to beat us is asking too much tonight.

The Pacers are 13-3 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Mavericks are 13-27 ATS as favorites this season.  Dallas is 4-14 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Mavericks are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 115-124 home loss to the Sacramento Kings on Sunday, and now they get their shot at revenge here just two days later.  And there's a chance the Kings won't have De'Aron Fox, who is questionable with a wrist injury and means everything to them.  Either way I think the Thunder pull off the upset.

The Thunder are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.  Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Thunder are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after losing four or five of their last six games.  The Kings will suffer a letdown tonight after just beating this team two days ago.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +6.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks following 14 consecutive victories, and a great time to 'buy low' on the Brooklyn Nets following two consecutive losses while also losing four of their last five games overall.

It was going to take the Nets a few games to form some chemistry following the trades.  They played well in Atlanta losing 127-129 as 6.5-point dogs last time out.  And now they are back home for the first time since the break and will be highly motivated to try and knock off the Bucks.  Don't be surprised to see Milwaukee take them lightly tonight.

Brooklyn is 46-29 ATS in its last 75 games as an underdog.  The Nets are 19-10 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Brooklyn is 25-9-1 ATS in its last 35 games after allowing more than 25 points in its previous game.  Brooklyn has an elite defender in Mikal Bridges to sick on Giannis, which is a factor that is getting overlooked here.  Bet the Nets Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the New Orleans Pelicans following three consecutive road losses to the Lakers, Raptors and Knicks.  Now the Pelicans return home highly motivated for a victory where they are 20-10 SU & 17-13 ATS this season.

They host an Orlando Magic team that is quickly playing themselves out of playoff contention after going 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They barely beat the Pistons by 2 as 7.5-point home favorites in their first game back from the break, and were blown out by the Pacers by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites last time out.  This is a step up in class for them and now having to go on the road.

The Pelicans are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 games after losing four or five of their last six games.  New Orleans is 24-13 ATS in its last 37 games as a home favorite.  Plays against underdogs (Orlando) - off an upset losses as a favorite, in a game involving two teams that win 40-49% of their games are 26-9 (74.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall and highly motivated for a victory as a result.  The three losses came to the 76ers, Nuggets and Hawks, where they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  So the spots haven't been great for them, but this is a great spot here.

The Cavaliers are 25-7 SU & 21-11 ATS at home this season.  They had yesterday off and host a Toronto Raptors team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 95-91 win over lowly Detroit last night.  

It will also be the 2nd road game in 2 days and the 3rd game in 4 days overall for the Raptors.  Anunoby played over 38 minutes, Barnes 37, Trent Jr. 36 and Siakam 35 yesterday for the Raptors.  They also may be without VanVleet again.

Toronto is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Cavaliers are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 Sunday games.  Cleveland is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Memphis Grizzlies ML -120

The Denver Nuggets have a six-game lead over the Memphis Grizzlies for first place in the Western Conference.  It's easy to see who is going to be the more motivated of these two teams, and I like the Grizzlies to win at home here Saturday to inch closer to the Nuggets.

Adding to Memphis' motivation is that they're coming off a 5-point road loss to Philadelphia, which is one of the toughest places to play in the NBA.  The Nuggets pulled the upset in Cleveland with a big 4th quarter in their first game back from the break and won't be as motivated as a result.

Speaking of tough places to play, Memphis is 24-5 SU at home this season.  Memphis is 38-17-1 ATS in its last 56 home games.  The Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS after scoring 105 points or fewer this season.  Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Denver.   Jaren Jackson Jr. is likely going to win Defensive Player of the Year and he matches up with Nikola Jokic as well as any big man in the league can.  Bet the Grizzlies on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans +3

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing better going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost by 5 on the road at Toronto in their first game back from the break, and I look for them to come back highly motivated for a victory tonight in New York as a result.

The Pelicans had yesterday off, while the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after coming back from double-digits down to beat the Washington Wizards 115-109 on the road last night.  Julius Randle played over 36 minutes and Jalen Brunson over 38 minutes for the Knicks last night.

New York is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 home games following a win.  Plays against any team (New York) - following two or more consecutive upset wins as road underdogs, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 103-58 (64%) ATS since 1996.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - following two or more consecutive road losses, a well-rested team playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days are 84-41 (67.2%) ATS since 1996.  The road team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Bulls OVER 222.5

This is a pretty low total for an NBA game.  The Nets are better offensively than they get credit for after trading away Irving and Durant and getting back some really nice pieces in Dinwiddie, Bridges and Johnson along with the emergence of Cam Thomas.  The Bulls are very healthy coming out of the All-Star Break and should get their offense going after a rough finish to the break with six consecutive losses.

Plays on the OVER on all teams with a total of 220 to 229.5 (Chicago) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, winning between 40-49% of their games on the season are 97-57 (63%) since 1996.  The OVER is 9-3-1 in Nets last 13 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +6.5

The Charlotte Hornets won their final two games going into the All-Star Break upsetting Atlanta as 5.5-point dogs and crushing the Spurs by 10 as 5-point favorites.  There's a lot to like about this team moving forward because they are as healthy as they have been in a long time.

La'Melo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and Kelly Oubre Jr. have all missed significant time for the Hornets this season which has contributed to their struggles.  But they are all healthy coming out of the All-Star Break.  They are primed for a big effort here against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Timberwolves traded away De'Angelo Russell and are still without Karl-Anthony Towns, two of their three best players.  They are probably going to be a fade team the rest of the way until Towns returns because Anthony Edwards can't do it all on his own.

Charlotte simply owns Minnesota.  The Hornets have gone 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Timberwolves with their lone loss coming in OT.  They beat the Timberwolves 110-108 as 6.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games when playing in three or more days' rest.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington Wizards +2

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They actually rank 3rd in the NBA in net rating over their past 15 games, and only the Cavaliers and Bucks have been better.  They should not be home underdogs to the New York Knicks tonight.

The Knicks have gone 8-8 SU & 8-8 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They rank 17th in net rating over their past 15 games.  They have been below average during this stretch, and they have no business being road favorites here.

Washington is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after covering three of its last four coming in.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Lakers sit in 13th place in the West and two games out of the play-in round and 3.5 games out of 6th place.  It's safe to say they will be fully focused and locked in here for the stretch run to try and make the playoffs.  They made some key trades that will help them, and they are fully healthy coming out of the break with both LeBron and Davis probable tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Warriors, who will be without their two best players in Steph Curry (29.4 PPG, 6.4 APG) and Andrew Wiggins (17.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG).  The Warriors are one of the worst road teams in the NBA this season to boot, going 7-22 SU & 9-20 ATS away from home this season.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder come out of the All-Star Break as the 10th and final team to make the play-in round in the Western Conference.  They are just 1.5 games out of 6th place and a secured spot.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way and are trending up, ranking 3rd in the NBA in net rating over their last 15 games.  Only the Cavaliers and Bucks have been better.

The Utah Jazz just made some big trades that indicate they are punting on this season.  They are in 11th in the West and faltering, going 2-5 SU In their last seven games while ranking 26th in net rating during this span.  They traded away Mike Conley hoping to get Collin Sexton (14.3 PPG) more minutes, but he's out tonight.  They also let Russell Westbrook walk to the Clippers.  What's left of this roster is an NBA bottom feeder.

The Thunder are 44-21-1 ATS in their last 66 road games.  Oklahoma City is 25-9-1 ATS in its last 35 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Thunder are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Salt Lake City.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans +6

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the New Orleans Pelicans.  They went 4-12 SU & 5-10-1 ATS in their final 16 games going into the All-Star Break as they were really banged up.  They are still without Zion Williamson, but they are healthy everywhere else and come out of the break playing with a chip on their shoulder.  They are just a half-game back of the 6th spot in the West to avoid the play-in round despite their recent struggles.

I like their chances of staying within 6 points of the Toronto Raptors, who we'll 'sell high' on after winning five of their final six games going into the break against an extremely soft schedule of Houston, San Antonio, Detroit, Orlando, Utah and Memphis.  Both OG Anunoby and Thaddeus Young are questionable for the Raptors tonight.

Toronto is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 home games following a win by 10 points or more.  The Pelicans are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Toronto.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -6.5

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, Denver and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

Now the Magic come out of the break with their sights set on revenge from two losses at Detroit in their first two meetings this season, both of which came in 2022.  They have been a completely different team in 2023 with a positive net rating over their last 15 games.  They are much better than the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons look to be tanking and there's just not much to like about them right now.  They lost five of their final six games prior to the All-Star Break with their lone win coming at home over the lowly Spurs in OT.  They rank 27th in the net rating over their past 15 games and 28th on the season.  They sit at 15-44 on the season.

Orlando is 13-3 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  The Magic are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Orlando is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a SU loss.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers -2

The Denver Nuggets are fat and happy coming out of the All-Star Break sitting in first place in the West with a five-game lead over Memphis.  I don't expect them to come out of the break playing with a sense of urgency.  They definitely aren't healthy coming out of the break with Jamal Murray (20.2 PPG, 5.8 APG) battling a knee injury and questionable, while Aaron Gordon (17.3 PPG, 6.9 APG) is out.

Cleveland went into the break playing some of the best basketball in the NBA going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their final eight games with all seven victories coming by 8 points or more.  They did lost at Philadelphia in their final game, and that will help them come out of the break more motivated.  Not that they are lacking any motivation as they are in 4th place in the East and only five games back of first place.

The Cavaliers come out of the break fully healthy with the exception of Ricky Rubio, who they have been without for most of the season anyway.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA going 25-6 SU & 20-10-1 ATS at home this season while outscoring opponents by 8.8 points per game.  Denver is a mediocre 14-4 SU & 12-16 ATS on the road this season.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games following three consecutive games where they made 47% shots or better, including 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games following two consecutive games where they made 50% of their shots or better.  Cleveland has the big men defensively that will make life on Nikola Jokic much more difficult than he's used to on a nightly basis.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday.

20* Bucks/Bulls TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -7.5

The Chicago Bulls are struggling going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are banged up with DeRozan, Dragic and Jones Jr. all questionable to play tonight.  And now they are in an absolutely terrible spot.

Indeed, the Bulls will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 113-117 loss in Indiana last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Bulls.  They couldn't hold on to a 24-point lead at the end of the 1st quarter, which shows how bad they are right now.  It also meant that their starters would have to play big minutes.  LaVine played 42 minutes. Dosunmu 42, Vucevic 36 and White 33 for the Bulls last night.

They won't have much left in the tank for the Milwaukee Bucks, who are playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now and will be motivated to extend their 11-game winning streak to 12 games in their final game prior to the All-Star Break.  Nine of their 11 wins have come by 8 points or more during this streak.  They are the much fresher team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Look for them to put it on the Bulls tonight.

Milwaukee is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 games as a road favorite.  Chicago is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a road loss.  The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Milwaukee is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 trips to Chicago.  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Brooklyn Nets PK

The Brooklyn Nets will be playing with a chip on their shoulders moving forward.  They have a bunch of players now that were traded in the Durant and Irving deals.  I really like the pieces they got back in Dinwiddie (17.9 PPG, 5.3 APG), Bridges (17.2 PPG), Johnson (13.8 PPG) and Finney-Smith (9.0 PPG).  I also like holdovers Claxton (13.0 PPG), Curry (10.6 PPG), Thomas (10.6 PPG), O'Neale (9.2 PPG) and Harris (8.6 PPG).  This is now one of the deepest teams in the NBA and won't be an easy out.

While the Nets are fully healthy heading into their final game prior to the All-Star Break and will have all hands on deck, the Miami Heat are limping into the break.  They are without Herro (20.6 PPG), Oladipo (11.2 PPG), Lowry (12.0 PPG, 5.3 APG) and Robinson (6.9 PPG) tonight.  The Heat are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and struggling right now due to these injuries.

Miami is 3-11 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  Plays on home favorites or PK (Brooklyn) - after having lost five or six of their last seven games, a winning team playing another winning team are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7.5

This is a terrible spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 125-131 (OT) loss in Milwaukee last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Detroit Pistons tonight, and they won't be all that motivated to beat them for a 4th time.

Meanwhile, the Pistons will be playing with triple-revenge after losing by 16, 9 and 12 points to the Celtics in their first three meetings this season.  They will also be the much fresher team coming in on two days' rest after a 1-point loss at Toronto as 11-point dogs last time out.

Plays on any team (Detroit) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent that is coming off a road cover where they lost SU as an underdog are 52-24 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pistons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Boston.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Pacers OVER 230.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the NBA in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency.  They have a healthy Tyrese Haliburton (20.0 PPG, 10.1 APG) now and he makes all the difference for this team offensively.

This total is lower than it should be due to the Bulls going under the total in five consecutive games coming in.  But they should get their offense going tonight against the Pacers, plus I expect them to give up a big number here.  

The first two meetings between these teams saw totals of 234.5 and 233 points, so as you can see there's some value on this OVER 230.5 number when you compare the previous two totals.  They combined for 233 points in their first meeting and 226 in their 2nd meeting.  But they shot a combined 15-of-61 from 3-point range in that 2nd meeting, and they aren't going to shoot that poorly again.

Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Chicago) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games in February games are 45-19 (70.3%) Over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing five consecutive games coming in.  This is their final game prior to the All-Star Break so they would love to go into the break without the sour taste of a six-game losing streak.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and primed for a big effort here.

The Chicago Bulls are struggling worse, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 15 at Memphis, by 11 at Brooklyn, by 8 at Cleveland and by 9 at home to Orlando.  Making matters worse are six players on the injury report.  They will be without DeRozan and Jones Jr, while both Caruso and Dragic are questionable.

The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Indiana is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Chicago.  The Pacers are 17-14 SU & 18-12 ATS at home this season.  The Bulls are 10-19 SU on the road this season.  Chicago is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following three or more consecutive underdogs.  Indiana is 10-2 ATS in home games following a non-conference game this season.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, Denver and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

I just cashed the Magic +5 last night in their 100-91 outright win at Chicago.  Now this line has been adjusted too much for them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can handle these situations better than most.

The Toronto Raptors cannot be trusted to lay this kind of a number right now.  They only beat the Pistons by 1 as 11-point home favorites last time out, and they lost by 6 to Utah as 8.5-point favorites the game prior.  This is a step up in class for Toronto.

Orlando upset Toronto in each of their last two meetings this season winning 113-109 as 8-point dogs and 111-99 as 7-point dogs.  The Raptors are 16-46 ATS in their last 62 games when revenging two consecutive SU loss as a favorite.  Toronto is 5-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet the Magic Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -8.5

The Boston Celtics stand little chance of keeping this game competitive tonight considering they are going to be without their three best players in Jayson Tatum (30.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 4.5 APG), Jaylen Brown (26.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and Marcus Smart (11.1 PPG, 7.2 APG).  It's simply too much for them to overcome tonight.  Not to mention, Robert Williams and Grant Williams are both questionable as well.

The Milwaukee Bucks won't be taking the Celtics lightly without these guys, either.  They trail the Celtics for 1st place in the East and this will be a National TV game, so they will be putting their best foot forward.  It's amazing how good this team is when healthy and it has shown over the past couple weeks during their current 10-game winning streak.  Nine of the 10 wins have come by 8 points or more.

The Bucks are 16-6 ATS as favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Milwaukee is 23-5 SU & 18-10 ATS at home this season.  The Bucks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. good offensive teams that average 116 or more points per game.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +4

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last eight games overall with three outright upsets.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and I fully expect them to upset the Golden State Warriors tonight.  The Wizards are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and are primed for another big effort.

I'm looking to fade the Warriors without Stephen Curry until he returns.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Blazers and Lakers, who didn't even have LeBron James.  They could be without Andrew Wiggins, who is questionable with an ankle injury.  They just should not be favored over the Wizards given the state of these two teams currently.

The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Wizards are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a great spot tonight.  They coming in on two days' rest and have the next two days off after this game.  They will be 'all in' tonight in Dallas a result, and it should be enough to cover this 8-point spread and possibly win this game outright.

Dallas won both games with Kyrie Irving and without Luka Doncic, but then lost the game they both made their debut together against the Kings.  The Mavericks will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days after two shootouts with the Kings in Sacramento.  I fully expect the Mavericks to be overvalued the rest the way with Irving and Doncic, who are both great on offense but terrible on defense.

Minnesota is 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS in its last seven meetings with Dallas with two losses coming by 2 and 5 points.  So the Timberwolves have lost just one game in their last seven meetings with the Mavericks by more than this 8-point margin.

The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss, and 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss as well.  Dallas is 6-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +5

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, Denver and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

Now the Magic have their sights set on revenge from a 109-128 home loss to the Chicago Bulls on January 28th two weeks ago.  That was a terrible spot for the Magic playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a loss at Miami the night before.  It was also their 6th game in 9 days and they had nothing left in the tank for the Bulls.

Now they face a Chicago team not playing well at all going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with losses by 15 at Memphis, by 11 at Brooklyn and by 8 at Cleveland.  The Bulls will be playing their 5th game in 8 days here and are starting to run out of gas heading into the All-Star Break.

The Magic are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss, and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Chicago.  Bet the Magic Monday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +11.5

The Detroit Pistons aren't tanking contrary to popular belief.  They kept almost everyone at the trade deadline including Bojan Bogdanovic (21.5 PPG), who was one of the hottest trade pieces on the market.  They promptly won their first game since the deadline over the Spurs at home.

The Toronto Raptors promptly were upset as 8.5-point home favorites to the Utah Jazz in their first game since the deadline.  They cannot be trusted here as 11.5-point favorites over the Pistons, especially when you consider how Detroit has had their number in recent meetings.

Indeed, the Pistons are actually 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Raptors with six outright upsets as underdogs of 5 points or more in all six.  Their lone loss came by 4 points.  They just match up well with the Raptors clearly, and they won't go down without a fight today.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +2.5

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, Denver and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

The spot favors the Magic tonight as they had Friday off, while Miami just had to go to the wire in a 97-95 home win over lowly Houston as 12-point favorites.  A big reason the Heat struggled is because they are short-handed right now playing without Lowry, Oladipo and Robinson.  Now they'll have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back after having four players play at least 34 minutes last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for Orlando.

The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Heat are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Miami is 9-23-2 ATS in its last 34 games following a win.  The Heat are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games playing on zero rest.  The Magic are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Brooklyn Nets +3.5

I have the Brooklyn Nets circled as a 'buy low' team moving forward.  They just traded away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving but got back some great pieces in those trades that will have them playing team basketball moving forward.  I like Dinwiddie, Finney-Smith, Bridge and Johnson a lot.  

Not to mention, Cam Thomas is on an absolute tear scoring 44, 47, 43 and 20 points in his last four games.  The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over Chicago and Washington as well as narrow losses to the Clippers and Suns.  I fully expect them to upset the 76ers tonight.

This is a terrible spot for the 76ers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a comeback 119-108 home win over New York last night.  They will now be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  Embiid played 37 minutes, Harden 37, Harris 34, Maxey 32 and Tucker 30 last night.  Don't be surprised if they rest Embiid or others here.

Brooklyn is 13-5 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Nets are 8-1 ATS in home games after covering four or five of their last six games this season.  The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Brooklyn is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -1.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Mavericks after winning four of their last five and covering four consecutive games coming in.  That includes an upset win on National TV as 8-point dogs at the Clippers in their first game with Kyrie Irving.  Now this is a letdown spot for them to say the least, and there are going to be chemistry issues for a few games after these trades.

The Kings have good chemistry and didn't make any moves over the deadline.  They like their team as it's easy to see why as they have gone 11-5 SU in their last 16 games overall and rank 2nd in the entire NBA in offensive efficiency.  They will test this weak Dallas defense that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency and got even worse when trading for Irving while losing Finney-Smith.

Dallas is 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a win.  The Mavericks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Kings are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games playing on one days' rest.  Sacramento is 23-8-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six home meetings.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 33-20-1 ATS in all games this season and have been the most profitable team to back over the past two seasons.  They have gone 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with six outright upsets.  I fully expect them to upset the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.

The Blazers are dealing with a ton of injuries right now and are playing horrific defense.  They have allowed 112 or more points in 10 consecutive games and 14 o their last 15 games overall.  Now they face a potent Thunder offense that has scored 111 or more points in 16 of their last 18 games overall.

Oklahoma City is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following three consecutive games where they committed 4-plus more turnovers than their opponents.  The Thunder are 17-6 ATS as road underdogs this season.  Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Thunder are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 road games.  Oklahoma City is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Portland.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Kings OVER 233.5

The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 9th in pace, 2nd in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency.  The OVER is 3-0 in Kings last three games overall coming in with combined scores of 268, 260 and 240 points.

The Mavericks are now an OVER team with the trade for Kyrie Irving and books haven't adjusted yet.  They now have three elite scorers in Doncic, Irving and Wood and a bunch of question marks defensively.  They shot 52.6% in their first game with Irving in an upset win over the Clippers.

Sacramento is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 February home games.  The OVER is 16-7-1 in Kings last 24 home games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3

The New Orleans Pelicans are still undervalued after a recent 10-game losing streak.  I have backed them in two of their last three games since where they've gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS as 1.5-point favorites over the Lakers, 2-point dogs to the Kings and 1-point favorites over the Hawks.  They won those three games by a combined 46 points.

Now the Pelicans are once again undervalued as 3-point home dogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Cleveland has one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA this season.  The Cavaliers are just 12-16 SU & 11-15-2 ATS on the road this season and should not be favored over the Pelicans here.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games after winning four of its last five games.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last six Friday games.  New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Cleveland.  The Pelicans are 20-9 SU & 16-12-1 ATS at home this season.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +6.5

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

Now the Magic are out for revenge from a narrow 116-119 loss at Denver as 10.5-point underdogs on January 15th in their first meeting this season.  I like their chances of staying within 6.5 points at home in the rematch and likely pulling off the upset tonight.  Denver is just 1-3 SU in its last four road games with its lone win coming by a single point.

Denver is 1-9 ATS in road games following three consecutive games where it made 47% of its shots or better this season.  The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a SU loss.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 32-2 system backing Orlando tonight.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Warriors/Blazers OVER 234.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team right now playing without Jusuf Nurkic.  They have been force to go small ball and it has led to a ton of high scoring games.  In fact, the Blazers and their opponents have combined for at least 233 points in eight of their last nine games overall.

The Warriors will have no problem going small and getting up and down with the Blazers tonight.  The Warriors and their opponents have combined for at least 232 points in 14 consecutive games.  The OVER is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall during this stretch.  They just scored 141 points on the Thunder in their first game without Curry, and this total has been adjusted too much down due to him being out.

The OVER is 7-0 in Warriors' seven road games with a line of +3 to -3 this season.  Golden State is 14-1 OVER in its last 15 games vs. a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) in the second half of the season.  The OVER is 35-14-3 in Warriors last 52 road games.  The OVER is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings in Portland.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Kings/Rockets OVER 238.5

This is a low total for a game involving the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings, who are both dead nuts OVER teams.  The recent head-to-head history really shows that as well.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 260, 253, 250, 239 and 239 points.  The Kings and Rockets have combined for at least 230 points in eight consecutive meetings as well.  They have gone for 250, 253 and 260 points in their three meetings this season.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT Oklahoma City +6.5

The Los Angeles Lakers return home from a grueling five-game road trip at Boston, Brooklyn, New York, Indiana and New Orleans.  I always like fading teams in that first game back home following a long road trip because there are so many distractions back home.

Speaking of distractions, LeBron James needs 37 points tonight to break Kareem's All-Time scoring record.  I expect the Lakers to be playing a lot of 1 on 5 tonight because of it.  That's not going to work for them to beat the Thunder by 7-plus points, which is what it's going to take to beat us tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Thunder after getting blown out at Golden State last night where Klay Thompson made 12 3-pointers and nothing went right for them.  The good news is that they are still fresh now as no player played more than 30 minutes for the Thunder last night.

Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Los Angeles.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  The Thunder are 13-2 ATS after losing four or five of their last six games this season.  Oklahoma City is 7-0 ATS after three straight games committing four-plus more turnovers than their opponent this season.  The Thunder are 9-1 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans ML -120

It's 'buy low' time on the New Orleans Pelicans after going 2-10 SU in their last 12 games overall.  But they are getting healthier and are only without Zion Williamson, who should return soon.  They are coming off two straight home wins over the Lakers by 5 and Kings by 32 and should top the Atlanta Hawks tonight as well.

New Orleans is 19-9 SU at home this season, while Atlanta is 14-16 SU & 13-17 ATS on the road.  This is a very tough spot for the Hawks playing their 5th consecutive road game.  They just lost by 20 at Denver last time out.

The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest.  They are getting too much respect due to coming in on two days' rest.  The Pelicans have two days off after this and will be 'all in' for this game tonight.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic ML +105

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

The Magic should not be home underdogs to the New York Knicks tonight.  The Knicks are a tired team right now playing their 3rd game in 4 days and have played three OT games in their past six.  They are coming off an upset win over the 76ers at home on ESPN Sunday, and this is now a letdown spot for them.  They have played the Cavs, Celtics, Nets, Lakers, Heat, Clippers and 76ers in their last seven games and now they will take a breather here against the Magic.

The Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Magic Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +4

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry at least until after the All-Star Break.  They shouldn't be favored over the Oklahoma City Thunder without him tonight.  The Thunder are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA going 32-19-1 ATS in all games this season, including 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

The Thunder come in the more rested team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Warriors will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  Oklahoma City wants revenge from a 120-128 home loss to the Warriors on January 30th just a week ago when Curry scored 38 points and made eight 3-pointers.

Oklahoma City is 42-20-1 ATS in its last 63 road games.  The Thunder are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Oklahoma City is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. teams that are called for 2-plus more fouls per game than their opponents.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets OVER 233

This is a very low total for a game involving the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings, who are both dead nuts OVER teams.  The recent head-to-head history really shows that as well.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 253, 250, 239 and 239 points.  The Kings and Rockets have combined for at least 230 points in seven consecutive meetings as well.  Enough said.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -4

The Philadelphia 76ers are fully healthy and playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They are rested and ready to go tonight after having yesterday off and playing just their 5th game in 11 days.  The 76ers should be bigger favorites over the Knicks tonight given the horrible spot for the home team.

Indeed, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 128-134 (OT) home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  Their four best players all played at least 38 minutes with Barrett 43, Randle 40, Brunson 38 and Grimes 38 in that defeat.  They have played six consecutive games decided by single-digits, and after this rough stretch they won't have much left in the tank for the 76ers tonight.

Home-court advantage has not mattered in this series for the Knicks.  The 76ers are actually 10-1 SU in their last 11 trips to Madison Square Garden.  Philadelphia is 15-4 ATS when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  New York is 11-26 ATS in its last 27 home games following a home game.  The Knicks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Pacers OVER 225.5

The Indiana Pacers have gone under the total in three consecutive games coming in, which has the books setting this number too low.  Their last six totals were all 234 or higher, so this is a very low total for a game involving the Pacers.

Indiana's best player in Tyrese Haliburton just returned from injury and has been a little rusty in his first two games back.  But he should be much closer to full strength now and back to running this up-tempo style that Rick Carlisle likes to run.  The Pacers rank 3rd in the NBA in pace this season and 24th in defensive efficiency.

As long as Mitchell and Garland are on the floor for the Cavaliers they are a potent offensive team.  They are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They will have no problem getting up and down with the Pacers, which has certainly been the case in recent meetings.

Indeed, the OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 261, 230, 251 and 233 combined points at the end of regulation those last four meetings, respectively.  Indiana is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games following an upset win as a home underdog.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +2

I keep riding the Orlando Magic and they keep delivering.  The Magic have quietly gone 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

The Magic should not be underdogs to the lowly Charlotte Hornets, who have lost three consecutive games coming in.  The Hornets lost by 9 at Milwaukee, by 16 at Chicago and by 6 at Detroit.  Now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days with lots of travel involved.  They have almost zero home-court advantage as they are just 7-16 SU & 8-15 ATS at home this season.

Charlotte is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games following three or more consecutive losses.  Orlando is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Hornets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +5

Both the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight.  But the spot is much worse for the Suns than it is for the Pistons, so getting 5 points with the Pistons at home tonight is simply too much.

The short-handed Suns are coming off a shocking 106-94 win at Boston last night.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here plus having to travel from Boston to Detroit.  It will be the 9th game in 15 days for the Suns, who are without Booker, Payne and Shamet and could be without Cameron Johnson due to injury management.

The Pistons are much healthier and much fresher following their 118-112 home win over the Hornets last night.  They get to stay at home here, had three days off prior to that game, and they will now be playing just their 7th game in 20 days.  This team really couldn't be more fresh than they are right now, and it has shown in their recent play in going 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with upset wins over the Nets and Hornets, plus close losses to Dallas by 6 and Houston by 3.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - a hot team winning six or seven of their last eight games, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 75-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on zero rest.  Phoenix is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 10 points.  Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on zero rest.  The Pistons are 28-10 ATS in the last 38 meetings, including 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Detroit.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans ML +100

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the New Orleans Pelicans.  They have lost 10 consecutive games coming into this one with all 10 against playoff contenders.  Now they find themselves as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Lakers, and we'll take advantage.

It's safe to say the Pelicans will be highly motivated to put an end to this 10-game skid.  I like their chances tonight against a banged up Lakers team that could be without LeBron James.  It is also a tired Lakers team playing their 5th consecutive road game that has included a pair of OT games against the Celtics and Knicks.  I think they run out of gas here tonight.

The Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with the Lakers.  New Orleans is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Los Angeles with its lone loss coming on the road in OT.  Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +3.5

The Washington Wizards are playing their best basketball of the season right now largely due to the fact that they are as healthy as they have been all year.  They are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three outright victories as underdogs.

Unfortunately, their six-game winning streak came to an end last night with a fluky 116-124 home loss to the Blazers last night in which they blew an 18-point halftime lead.  Now they come back highly motivated for a victory.  The only reason they are underdogs here is due to playing the second of a back-to-back, but they will still be fresh considering they had three days off prior to playing Portland.  Not all back-to-backs are created equal.

I'll gladly fade the Brooklyn Nets as home favorites here.  They remain without Kevin Durant, Ben Simmons and T.J. Warren are both questionable, and now Kyrie Irving is requesting to be traded.  This franchise is just filled with turmoil, especially right now.  They can't be trusted as home favorites given their current state and the way they have played at home of late.

Indeed, the Nets are 14-39 ATS in their last 53 games as home favorites.  The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Washington is 41-17-2 ATS in its last 60 games when playing on zero rest.  Brooklyn is 16-40-2 ATS in its last 58 home games overall.  Bet the Wizards Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz ML -115

The Utah Jazz have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 18-9 SU at home this season and just have to win tonight to cover the money line for us.  They take on an Atlanta Hawks team that is 13-15 SU & 12-16 ATS on the road this season and has been a terrible road team through the years.

Utah comes in fully healthy, rested and ready to go tonight.  The Jazz will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Hawks will be playing their 3rd road game in 5 days after losing at Portland and beating short-handed Phoenix.  

This will be their toughest test of this road trip thus far, and they have Denver on deck tomorrow, so don't be surprised if they limit starters minutes tonight to prepare for that 2nd of a back-to-back.  Utah has two more days off after this, so they will be 'all in' for this one.

Atlanta is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The Hawks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Jazz are 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with all six wins by 5 points or more.  Bet the Jazz on the Money Line Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall with outright upset wins over Boston (three times), Philadelphia, Golden State, and the Clippers among others.  They are much better than the books and the bettors are giving them credit for.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a sandwich spot here.  They are coming off a huge 119-114 (OT) win over the defending champion Warriors, and now they have the Western Conference-leading Denver Nuggets on deck.  They are in a letdown and lookahead spot here, and I don't think they put their best foot forward because of it.  That's going to make it tough for them to cover this 5.5-point spread against the pesky Magic tonight.

Orlando is 11-2 ATS following two consecutive road games this season.  The Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Magic are 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Minnesota.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons -1

The Detroit Pistons have a massive rest advantage over the Charlotte Hornets tonight that should lead them to victory in this battle between Eastern Conference bottom feeders.  Detroit was last seen losing 105-111 at Dallas as 8.5-point dogs on Monday, so they have had the last three days off.

Meanwhile, the Hornets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days after losses at Milwaukee on Tuesday and at Chicago on Thursday.  Washington played over 38 minutes last night against the Bulls, Ball 35, Rozier 36 and Plumlee 31.  The Hornets won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons tonight.

Detroit is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  The Hornets are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  Charlotte is 6-14 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* Clippers/Bucks TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 231

This is a very high total for a game involving the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 22nd in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency.  They play even slower when Kawhi Leonard has been in the lineup and are an even better defensive team with him in there.  He has only played in 28 of their 54 games this season.

This total has been inflated largely due to the Bucks playing in three straight high scoring games against the Hornets, Pacers and Pelicans, which are three dead nuts over teams.  They take a big step up in class here at least offensively, where the Clippers match up with them very well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 230 or higher (Milwaukee) - after having won four or five of their last six games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 70-33 (68%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the New Orleans Pelicans following nine consecutive losses.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight, and they are much better than they have shown while battling through injuries lately.  They are now fully healthy with the exception of Zion Williamson and I expect them to upset the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

The Mavericks have been the single-most overvalued team in the NBA. They are 27-25 SU but just 17-33-2 ATS this season.  Luka Doncic has to carry too much of the load for this team, and now he's without second-leading scorer Christian Wood (18.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG).  The Mavericks are 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Dallas is 2-12 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season.  The Mavericks are 3-13 ATS following a home win this season.  The Mavericks are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on two days' rest.  Dallas is 5-20-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/76ers UNDER 230.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the 76ers and Magic.  I love betting UNDERS in these situations.  They combined for 228 points in that first meeting on Monday and I expect an even lower scoring game in the rematch.

The 76ers rank 22nd in pace and 5th in defensive efficiency, making them a dead nuts UNDER team.  They will come back with an inspired effort defensively tonight after getting upset by the Magic in that first meeting.

13 of the last 16 meetings in this series have seen 230 or fewer combined points, making for a 13-3 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 230.5-point total.  Plays on the UNDER where the total is 230 or higher (Philadelphia) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game after allowing 115 points or more in two consecutive games are 74-34 (68.5%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -5

This is a rare opportunity to 'buy low' on the Memphis Grizzlies after going through their worst stretch of the season.  They finally ended a five-game losing streak with a 112-100 home win over the Pacers last time out.  All five losses came on the road, but the Grizzlies have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA at home.

Indeed, the Grizzlies are 21-3 SU & 16-8 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game.  This is a very short number for them to be laying against the Portland Trail Blazers, who are coming off a five-game home stand but are just 10-15 SU & 12-13 ATS on the road.

Memphis is 10-1 ATS after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  Portland is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games vs. a top teams that win between 60% and 70% of their games.  The Blazers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Grizzlies are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

20* Pelicans/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the New Orleans Pelicans.  They have lost seven consecutive games coming in.  They will want revenge from a 98-99 home loss to the Nuggets on January 24th just a week ago.  I love the value we are getting on the Pelicans tonight catching 7 points in the rematch.

It's not like the Nuggets are playing much better.  They are 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone victory coming by a single point.  That includes an upset home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They have only won one of their last five home games by double-digits.

The Pelicans are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Denver.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Dallas Mavericks have been getting respect all season that has been unwarranted.  They are 26-25 SU but just 17-32-2 ATS this season.  They are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are without second-leading scorer Christian Wood right now, plus Luka Doncic is questionable with an ankle injury.  I like the Pistons at this number whether or not Doncic plays.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who have gone 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They pulled off the 130-122 upset win at Brooklyn as identical 8.5-point dogs in their last road game.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 11 days tonight.  Detroit pulled the 131-125 upset as 8-point home dogs to the Mavericks in their first meeting this season.

Detroit is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 points or more.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most undervalued team in the NBA for two seasons running now.  That has especially been the case of late as the Thunder are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all three losses coming by 5 points or fewer.  They are showing tremendous value catching 5.5 points at home to the Golden State Warriors tonight.

The Warriors have been dreadful on the road this season going 6-18 SU & 8-16 ATS away from home.  They play zero defense on the highway, allowing 122.9 points per game on 49% shooting.  The Thunder are 15-10 SU & 16-9 ATS at home this season and scoring 119.4 points per game on 48% shooting.

The Warriors are 2-10 ATS in road games following a win this season.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that average 116 or more points per game.  The Thunder are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings PK

I love the spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 110-117 road loss at Minnesota on Saturday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here two days later and are the fresher team by far.

While the Kings will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days, the Timberwolves will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 11th game in 18 days.  This is a clear letdown spot for the Timberwolves after just beating the Kings, plus it's a lookahead spot with the defending champion Warriors on deck Wednesday.  I expect the Kings to give an A-plus effort and the Timberwolves to be flat tonight.

Plays on road teams (Sacramento) - revenging a loss, while also off two or more consecutive upset losses as favorites are 42-21 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Kings Monday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -8.5

The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost a season-high five consecutive games, but all five losses came on the road.  Now they are back home where they are 20-3 SU & 15-8 ATS this season and outscoring opponents by 11.2 points per game.

The Grizzlies get a step down in class here against the Indiana Pacers, who have really been struggling without their best player in Tyrese Haliburton (20.2 PPG, 10.2 APG), who is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  The Pacers are 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and this run has coincided with the loss of Haliburton.  Five of their last seven losses have been by double-digits so they have rarely been competitive.

Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after losing four or five of its last six games.  The Grizzlies are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs. Central Division opponents.  The Grizzlies beat the Pacers 130-112 as 7.5-point road favorites on January 14th, and now are only 8.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  The Grizzlies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 18, 30 and 33 points.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* Lakers/Celtics ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +8

The Los Angeles Lakers want revenge from a 118-122 (OT) home loss to the Boston Celtics in which they blew a double-digit lead in the final minutes on December 13th in their first meeting this season.  They have Anthony Davis back healthy now and both James and Walker IV are questionable for this one.

The Celtics will be without their glue guy in Marcus Smart, who is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  That has shown as the Celtics are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games without him losing by 15 at Orlando as 7.5-point favorites, losing by 3 at Miami as 2.5-point dogs and lost by 3 at home to New York as 8.5-point favorites.

The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins during this stretch coming by 3 and 2 points.  They aren't blowing anyone out.  The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with only one loss by more than 5 points in their last eight games.  Los Angeles is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall dating back further, including 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Lakers/Celtics UNDER 237.5

Recent overtime games by the Celtics have inflated this total.  They are much more of a defensive-minded team since Robert Williams came back, and they are lacking on offense of late as teams have figured them out, plus they played bigger instead of small ball with Williams.

The UNDER would be 5-0 in Celtics last five games overall if not for OT.  They have combined for 220, 193, 211, 210 and 212 points at the end of regulation in their last five games overall.  This total has been inflated way up to 237.5 points, and there's clear value with the UNDER.

Speaking of OT games, Boston beat Los Angeles 122-118 in OT in their first meeting this season.  But that game was tied 110-110 at the end of regulation for just 220 combined points.  And I think this game should be much closer to 220 than 240 tonight given the rivalry and how both teams have been playing of late.

Boston is 14-5 UNDER with a total of 230 or higher this season.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Lakers last five games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5

This is a terrible spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 10th game in 16 days, which is about as tough of a situation as you will see in the NBA.  

Don't be surprised if they rest some starters after four starters played at least 30 minutes last night including 37 from Russell and 36 from Edwards.  It's also a letdown spot for the Timberwolves off an upset win over the Grizzlies, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year, so they definitely wanted some revenge last night and got it.

The Kings come in on two days' rest and will test Minnesota's tired legs by playing at one of the fastest paces in the NBA.  They will also be highly motivated for a win off an upset loss to the Raptors last time out.  The Kings have been a great road team this season at 11-9 SU & 13-7 ATS.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet the Kings Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -4

It's safe to say the New Orleans Pelicans will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six consecutive games coming into this one.  But they just got Brandon Ingram back from injury last game, and they are at full strength with the exception of Zion Williamson.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Pelicans, who also come in on two days' rest.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Washington Wizards, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  PF Kristaps Porzingis is out for the Wizards while PG Monte Morris is questionable.  The Pelicans beat the Wizards 132-112 on the road in their first meeting this season on January 9th.

The Wizards are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games when playing on two days' rest.  Washington is 6-15-2 ATS in its last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  New Orleans is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Wizards.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Los Angeles Clippers PK

The Los Angeles Clippers are a dangerous team when both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are healthy.  That has been the case in recent games and it has shown.  The Clippers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins by 5, 14, 18 and 38 points.

Now they make it five in a row as a PK on the road at the Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks had lost to the Hornets by 4 at home and the Bulls by 11 on the road before getting a 5-point win at OKC.  They take a huge step up in class here after playing a very easy schedule of late.

Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Hawks are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games following an ATS win.  Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* Raptors/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +5.5

The Toronto Raptors are fully healthy right now and playing well.  They have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 to Boston as 3.5-point dogs.  They beat the Knicks by 9 as 2.5-point home favorites and also upset the Warriors by 18 as 3-point road dogs.

Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will be highly motivated to try and beat the defending champion Warriors.  This is a Warriors team that is just 4-6 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall and could be without Andrew Wiggins tonight.  They have just one win by double-digits and two wins by more than 6 points in their last 14 games overall, so they aren't blowing anyone out.

Toronto is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following two consecutive wins.  The Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +8.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall with 10 outright upsets as underdogs.  They are way better than they get credit for, and we'll continue to back them until the oddsmakers and betting public catch up to them.  The Magic are catching too many points tonight against the Miami Heat.

Miami is in a letdown spot following a 98-95 win over the Boston Celtics last time out.  The Heat haven't been blowing out anyone as they have only two wins in their last 11 games by more than 8 points.  They won't be blowing out the Magic tonight, either.

Orlando is 7-0 ATS following a win by 6 points or less this season.  Miami is 11-21 ATS as a favorite this season.  Orlando is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on one day of rest.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Heat are 9-19-2 ATS in their last 30 games following a win, and 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win.  Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  Orlando is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and 6-2 ATS in the last eight trips to Miami.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have lost a season-high four consecutive games with three of those losses coming by a combined 5 points.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight so they don't get swept on this five-game road trip.  A motivated Grizzlies team as a short favorite is one that I definitely want to get behind.

We will 'buy low' on the Grizzlies tonight, while also 'selling high' on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have gone 9-4 SU & 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The Timberwolves have taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule during this run, but this is a big step up in class for them tonight.

Memphis is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after having lost four or five of its last six games.  The Grizzlies are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 meetings with the Timberwolves.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +9

The Brooklyn Nets are in a terrible spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 133-137 loss in Philadelphia last night.  They will be playing in their 6th different city in 10 days after playing their last five games on the road.  The Nets are just 2-5 SU in their last seven games without Kevin Durant with three losses by double-digits.  

Irving played 38 minutes, Claxton 38, Curry 34 and O-Neale 34 last night for the Nets.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons, and that's going to make it very difficult to win by double-digits, which is what it's going to take to beat us tonight.

The Pistons are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 11 days.  That makes it a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who have gone 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season tonight given the favorable spot.

Detroit is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Brooklyn is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after losing four or five of its last six games.  Brooklyn is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team that wins less than 25% of their games.  The Nets are 14-39-2 ATS in their last 55 home games.  Detroit is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Pistons Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio Spurs +6.5

I'll gladly fade the Los Angeles Lakers in a terrible spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days after a loss to the Los Angeles Clippers last night. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Spurs as they were the Clippers.

That's especially the case considering the Lakers have already beaten the Spurs three times this season alone. That means the Spurs will be playing with triple-revenge, and thus they will be the more motivated team.

The Spurs have quietly gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They will be the way fresher team playing just their 3rd game in 8 days. The Lakers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 235

The books missed their mark badly with this opening total in this showdown between the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies. These are two dead nuts OVER teams, especially with how they have been playing of late.

The Grizzlies have really slipped defensively of late allowing 112 or more points in nine of their last 10 games overall. But they have scored 115 or more points in 12 of their last 14 games overall. They are without Steven Adams, which makes them even more of an OVER team.

The Golden State Warriors have been terrible defensively all season allowing 118.0 points per game. But they have gotten healthy recently and are scoring at will. The Warriors have scored 116 or more points in six consecutive games coming in.

The OVER is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 games overall. The OVER is 5-1-1 in Warriors last seven games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in Warriors last four games following a loss. Be the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +1

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the single most underrated team in the NBA over the past couple seasons. They continue to get no respect as home underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks tonight.

The Thunder are 7-2 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall. That includes six outright upsets as underdogs, which they just have a habit of doing. They should be favored over the Hawks at home tonight.

The Thunder come in rested and ready to go on two days' rest. The Hawks will be playing their 4th game in 6 days and their 8th game in 12 days tonight. They are starting to wear down after getting upset by the Hornets as 7.5-point home favorites two games ago, they lost by 11 at Chicago as 1-point road dogs last time out.

The Hawks are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Oklahoma City is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games playing on two days' rest. The Thunder are 25-11 ATS in the last 36 meetings. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic -4.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall. This team is way better than they get credit for, and they are as healthy as they have been all season right now.

Now the Magic take on the struggling Indiana Pacers, who are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS i n their last eight games overall. They are without their best player in Tyrese Haliburton (20.2 PPG, 10.2 APG), and their recent struggles are due to missing one of the most underrated players in the NBA.

The Pacers ended a seven-game losing streak with a 116-110 comeback victory over Chicago last night. But that was a Bulls team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. Now the Pacers are the team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back with travel. Four players played at least 32 minutes for the Pacers last night, and they won't have much left in the tank for the Magic.

The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on one days' rest. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 232.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 26th in the NBA in pace, 22nd in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency. They have been even more of an UNDER team when Kawhi Leonard has been healthy, which he is right now.

The Lakers are more of an over team, but they have combined for 234 or fewer points in five of their last seven game overall with the UNDER going 6-1. They are missing Davis, Reaves and Walker while the Clippers are missing Wall and Kennard, and those losses hurt both teams more offensively than defensively.

Each of the first two meetings between the Clippers and Lakers this season have been very low scoring. They combined for 200 points in the first meeting on October 20th with a 226.5-point total. They combined for 215 points with a 219.5-point total in the 2nd meeting on November 9th. And now the books have jacked this total up to 232.5, so there's clearly big value on the UNDER.

The Lakers and Clippers have combined for 225 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 meetings, which makes for an 11-2 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 232.5-point total. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +7.5

The Washington Wizards are playing much better of late since getting Bradley Beal back from injury. After upsetting the Knicks 116-105 as 5-point dogs two games ago, they came back and blasted the Magic 138-118 as 6.5-point home favorites.

Now the Wizards have had the last two days off and are as rested as they have been all season. They will also be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days as well as their 4th game in 11 days.

The Dallas Mavericks are just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall and don't deserve to be 7.5-point favorites here. In fact, they have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season at just 16-30-2 ATS in their 48 games. They are without second-leading scorer Christian Wood (18.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG) right now, which puts too much on Luka Doncic's shoulders.

The Wizards are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Mavericks with three outright upsets as 6, 6 and 7.5-point dogs as well as a 1-point loss as 4.5-point dogs. This line should be much closer to PK. Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +8.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and have been very competitive even in losing efforts. Now they are catching too many points tonight against the Portland Trail Blazers.

While the Spurs are rested on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, the Blazers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 112-121 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. It was their 3rd consecutive loss by 9 points or more.

The Blazers have no business being this heavily favored against anyone considering they are just 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Lillard played 39 minutes, Simons 38, Grant 34 and Hart 32 last night, so they won't have much left in the tank for the Spurs tonight.

Portland is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games following an upset loss as a favorite. San Antonio is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Portland. Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +8.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Now they are catching too many points at home to the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Celtics are without both Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon tonight, Robert Williams is questionable. and Jayson Tatum will be paying through a wrist injury. They are laying too many points on the road tonight given their injury situation.

Orlando is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in three meetings with Boston this season. The Magic won outright as 13-point road dogs, outright as 11-point road dogs and only lost by 6 as 9-point home dogs in their first three meetings this season.

Orlando is 5-0 ATS In its last five games following a loss. The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on one day of rest. Boston is 1-9 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Bet the Magic Monday.

20* Nets/Warriors NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 235

The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team especially now that they have all their scorers back and healthy.  The Warriors rank 1st in the NBA in pace and have taken a big step back on defense this season.  They have scored 118 or more points in five consecutive games, and the OVER has gone 5-1 in their last six games with combined scores of 234 or more points in all six games.

Kyrie Irving and company will have no problem getting up and down with the Warriors.  They beat a short-handed Warriors team 143-113 in their first meeting this season at home for 256 combined points.  The Warriors are expected to have all hands on deck for this game other than Wiseman and Iguodala, which hurts them more defensively than anything.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Mavericks UNDER 224.5

The Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks just met less than two weeks ago on January 10th.  The Clippers won that game 113-101 at home for just 214 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and I expect more of the same in the rematch here Sunday.

This has been a very low scoring series as it is.  The Clippers and Mavericks have combined for 217 or fewer points in six consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 217 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings, making for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 224.5-point total.

Injuries to both teams will take away from the offense of both teams and help us cash this UNDER ticket.  The Clippers will be without both John Wall (11.4 PPG, 5.2 APG) and Luke Kennard (8.7 PPG, 46.2% 3-pointers), while the Mavericks will be without second-leading scorer Christian Wood (18.4 PPG).  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7.5

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Several of those few losses actually came when they had key guys suspended.  But now the are basically as healthy as they have been all season.

This line has been adjusted too much in Washington's favor due to Orlando playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But the Magic had four days off prior to beating the Pelicans 123-110 at home last night.  Only Franz Wagner played more than 26 minutes for the Magic in that win, so they will still be fresh and ready for another big effort tonight.

Washington has no business laying this big of a number to anyone.  The Wizards are 19-26 on the season and just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with four losses by 9 points or more, and one win coming by 3 points.  They are getting too much respect for their upset win at New York last time out, which was a revenge game for them after recently losing to the Knicks two games prior.

Orlando is 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games this season.  Washington is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on two days' rest.  The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Washington is also 14-37-1 ATS in its last 52 games when playing on two days' rest.  Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its las six trips to Washington.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Toronto Raptors ML +100

The Boston Celtics will be without leading scorer Jayson Tatum (31.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 4.3 APG) tonight against the Toronto Raptors.  Not only that, but this is a massive letdown spot for the Celtics after finally getting revenge on the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night in OT at home.  They will fall flat tonight at Toronto following that victory.

Toronto will be highly motivated for a victory following two consecutive road losses coming in.  Unlike the Celtics, the Raptors are fully healthy right now.  And them at full strength and at home is better than Boston without Tatum.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz -6

The Brooklyn Nets have been a disaster without Kevin Durant.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 11 at home to Boston as 1-point dogs, by 12 at home to OKC as 4.5-point favorites, by 8 at San Antonio as 2.5-point favorites and by 5 at Phoenix as 3.5-point favorites.

Now the Nets are in a terrible spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days as well as their 3rd consecutive road game.  Kyrie Irving played 38 minutes, Nic Claxton 35 minutes, Seth Curry 36 minutes, Royce O'Neale 34 minutes and Joe Harris 31 minutes last night for the Nets.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight, and now they have to play in altitude in Salt Lake City to make matters worse.

The Jazz are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point to the 76ers as 7-point dogs.  They upset the Timberwolves, crushed the Clippers by 23 and beat the Cavaliers and Magic during this stretch.  Unlike the Nets, the Jazz are fully healthy right now and have been dangerous when that's the case.

The Jazz are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Utah is 19-8 ATS in the last 27 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Salt Lake City.  The Jazz are 17-3 ATS in their last 20 home games following three or more consecutive ATS wins.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

20* Heat/Mavericks ESPN No-Brainer on Miami ML -115

The Miami Heat are almost fully healthy and playing some of their best basketball of the season right now as a result.  They have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with two wins over Milwaukee and a 26-point win at New Orleans last time out.

The Heat should continue their momentum tonight against one of the most overrated teams in the NBA in the Dallas Mavericks.  The Mavericks are just 15-29-2 ATS on the season.  They are missing Maxi Kleber and now will be without Christian Wood after suffering a fractured thumb last game.  That's a huge loss as Wood has scored 19-plus points in 10 of his last 12 games overall and was starting to form a great chemistry with Luka Doncic.

Plays against home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Dallas) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 71-37 (65.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavericks are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and needed two heroic 3's by Doncic to force OT and double-OT in a win over the Lakers for their lone victory during this stretch.  Their five losses came by 17, 17, 12, 11 and 8 points.

Miami is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 trips to Dallas, and 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall.  The Mavericks are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Heat on the Money Line Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +2

The Orlando Magic have quietly gone 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Several of those few losses actually came when they had key guys suspended.  But now the are basically as healthy as they have been all season, and this is a great spot for them coming in on four days' rest after being off since January 15th.

The New Orleans have been playing without their two best players in Zion Williamson (26.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.6 APG) and Brandon Ingram (20.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.7 APG) and it's no surprise they have struggled without them.  Both remain out, plus key role player Herbert Jones (10.0 PPG) is questionable after missing the past four games.  Another role player in Naji Marshall (10.5 PPG) is questionable as well.

The Pelicans are just 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Orlando is 10-2 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season.  New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Magic are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* Warriors/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 241

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  It's safe to say the Celtics and Warriors are very familiar with one another after meeting in the NBA Finals last season.  They also played once this season, and all recent meeting went well UNDER this 241-point total.

Indeed, the Warriors and Celtics combined for 230 points in their first meeting this season.  They combined for 228 or fewer points in all six NBA Finals games.  In fact, they have combined for 233 or fewer points in 20 consecutive meetings, making for a 20-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 241-point total.  The UNDER is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Kings/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 244.5

Both the Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers are dead nuts OVER teams right now. They are two of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, and they both play little defense.

The OVER is 5-0 in Kings last five games overall with combined scores of 270, 247, 250, 253 and 251 points. The 270-point effort came against the Lakers. They also combined for 254 points in their previous meeting this season. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.

The Lakers are coming off 272 combined points against the Houston Rockets. The OVER is 20-7-1 in Lakers last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 12-4 in Lakers last 16 games playing on one days' rest. The OVER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Rockets OVER 236.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team. They have combined for 236 or more points with their opponents in six of their last eight games overall. They play fast and play no defense.

The Houston Rockets have combined for 272, 255 and 250 points in three of their last four games coming in with the only exception being the Clippers, who are a dead nuts under team when playing at home. The Rockets also play fast and play no defense.

The OVER is 20-8 in Hornets last 28 road games. The OVER is 15-4 in Hornets last 19 road games following a home loss by 10 points or more. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 227

The Los Angeles Clippers are missing Paul George (23.7 PPG), Luke Kennard (8.7 PPG) and John Wall (11.4 PPG) tonight. That's a lot of offensive production missing, and they have to rely on defense to be competitive without them.

Amazingly, the UNDER is 23-4 in Clippers last 27 home games, which is one of the best kept secrets in the NBA right now. They are 20-3 UNDER at home this season, averaging 106.1 PPG at home and allowing just 105.3 PPG.

The 76ers rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, making them a dead nuts UNDER team. The Clippers rank 23rd in pace and 8th in defensive efficiency, making them an UNDER team as well. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Portland Trail Blazers are as healthy as they have been all season right now and it's starting to show. They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Dallas by 17 points each.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Denver Nuggets after winning six consecutive games coming in including five by double-digits. They barely survived in a 3-point win over the Magic as double-digit favorites last time out. And I expect they'll find it hard to beat Portland let alone by 8-plus points, which is what it's going to take to beat us tonight.

This will be the 4th and final meeting between these teams this season. Portland has actually outscored Denver by 11 points combined in the first three meetings. 

The Blazers are 8-1 ATS following two consecutive home games this season. Denver is 1-9 ATS following three consecutive games where it made 50% of its shots or better. Portland is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games vs. good shooting teams that make 50% or better. Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio Spurs +6.5

The Brooklyn Nets have been lost in their last two games without Kevin Durant. They lost 109-98 at home to Boston and 112-102 at home to Oklahoma City as well. A team led by Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons is not a team I'd trust my money with.

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. They have been competitive despite continuing to lose outright, and I expect them to give the Nets a run for their money without Durant tonight.

The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Spurs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Brooklyn. Roll with the Spurs Tuesday.

20* Raptors/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 224

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Toronto and Milwaukee with combined scores of 197, 199, 228, 190 and 206 points at the end of regulation, respectively.

Given this head-to-head history, this total of 224 has been set too high tonight. The UNDER is also 10-2 in the last 12 meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Cavs UNDER 222.5

Points will be hard to come by in this showdown between two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Cavaliers rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Pelicans rank 7th in the same category.

The Pelicans have to rely more on defense right now without their two best players and scorers in Zion Williamson and Brandin Ingram. I expect the Cavaliers to lock them down today.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 220 or fewer points in four of the five, including 212 or fewer in three of them. The UNDER is 5-1 in Pelicans last six games playing on two days' rest. The UNDER is 9-2 in Cavaliers last 11 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.