11-17-15 |
Hawks -3.5 v. Nets |
Top |
88-90 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is Brooklyn's first home game in 11 days. The Nets just returned from a four-game road trip where they beat the struggling Rockets and nearly upset the Kings and Warriors during their past two games. The Nets have failed to cover in their last four home games. I don't like the spot they are in after being gone from home for so long. The Hawks are the superior team and are not going to take the 1-9 Nets lightly after losing 97-96 at home to Utah this past Sunday. Atlanta is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. The spread is low because point guard Jeff Teague may be out. He didn't play Sunday versus the Jazz due to an ankle injury. I'm fine if Teague can't play because Dennis Schroder is a reliable backup. The Hawks match up well to the Nets, who lack the necessary rebounding to take advantage of Atlanta's vulnerability on the boards. Atlanta has won the past six games in the series, including whipping the Nets, 101-87, in Atlanta on Nov. 4. The Nets couldn't stop the Hawks' pick-and-roll in that game.
|
11-17-15 |
Dartmouth v. Marist +2.5 |
|
63-73 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
Marist is well balanced, is home and coached by Mike Maker, who coached at Dartmouth for 11 years so he knows that team extremely well.
Dartmouth has failed to cover in 16 of its last 22 games. Dartmouth also is 0-5 the past five times facing an opponent from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.
|
11-16-15 |
San Diego State v. Utah -5 |
Top |
76-81 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 37 m |
Show
|
Power-ratings-wise I have Utah favored by more than this line. Look for San Diego State to have problems containing Utah center Jakob Poeltl. The Utes are going to be tough especially with the improvement made by sophomore forward Kyle Kuzma.
San Diego State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Utah is a dominant 40-14 the past 54 times at home.
|
11-15-15 |
Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 |
Top |
39-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
65 h 8 m |
Show
|
The Seahawks haven't lost a game coming off a bye since 2012. I don't see them losing at home either in this matchup. Seattle is 4-4. Arizona is 6-2. Obviously this is a must-win spot for Seattle. The Cardinals haven't faced a defense of this caliber on the road all season. Their offense is good, but not as powerful as the statistics show. Arizona has won five of its six games against defenses that are ranked among the bottom nine - Saints, Browns, 49ers, Lions and Ravens. The one really good defense the Cardinals went against was the Rams - and that was at home. The Cardinals still lost that game. Seattle's defense is picking up steam. Look for the "Legion of Boom" to be in full force. The bye week came at a good time for Seattle, which was in need of regrouping. Their offensive line should perform better with left tackle Russell Okung expected back. Then there is the Seahawks' dominant home field advantage. During the last four years, the Seahawks are 28-3 at CenturyLink Field, 20-10-1 ATS.
|
11-15-15 |
Grizzlies -2.5 v. Wolves |
Top |
114-106 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
Memphis is a disappointing 4-6. But the Grizzlies have taken care of business when playing bad teams beating the Pacers early in the season before Indiana got turned around, beating the Nets and Kings by double-digits and holding a fourth-quarter 10-point lead on Portland this past Friday before winning by just one point. Nearly all of the Grizzlies' losses have all come to good teams - Warriors twice, Cavaliers, Clippers, Jazz and at the Trail Blazers, who are much stronger at home. The Timberwolves are not in that class. After opening the season with consecutive victories, the Timberwolves have reverted back to their losing form and lack of defense. Minnesota has lost its last three games. The Timberwolves are giving up an average of 111.8 points per game during their last four games. They have been without point guard Ricky Rubio in their last three games. Rubio is questionable today because of his hamstring injury. The Timberwolves also have been without center Nikola Pekovic. He remains sidelined indefinitely following surgery on his Achilles tendon. The Timberwolves are really going to miss him in this matchup against the physical, frontcourt dominated Grizzlies. Marc Gasol is beginning to elevate his game. He's averaging 28.5 points on 51.5 percent shooting from the floor during the last two games. Minnesota has been particularly bad at home going 0-4 SU and ATS at Target Center this season. Going back to last season, the Timberwolves are 0-12, 1-11 ATS at home.
Memphis has won in seven of its last nine visits to Minnesota. The Grizzlies strengthened their backcourt with the addition of veteran Mario Chalmers, who looked good in his Memphis debut two nights ago. The Grizzlies have won 50 or more games each of the last three seasons. They are proven winners and have the same players back. Slow start or not, they remain vastly superior to Minnesota.
|
11-15-15 |
Cowboys +2 v. Bucs |
|
6-10 |
Loss |
-108 |
58 h 45 m |
Show
|
The good news for the Cowboys is they finally get back Tony Romo next week. The bad news is the Cowboys are 0-6 since Romo broke his collarbone. If they don't beat the Buccaneers then Romo's presence isn't going to mean anything. This is a must game for Dallas - and I see the Cowboys getting a victory against this lowly opponent that doesn't know how to close out foes. Tampa Bay also has been an abject failure at home going 1-12 in its last 13 games at Raymond James Stadium, 3-10 ATS. In games decided by six or fewer points under Lovie Smith, the Bucs are 2-9. Matt Cassel has gotten better each week he's been Dallas' starting quarterback. The Cowboys have come close in their last two games falling by one point to the Seahawks and in overtime to the Eagles. The Cowboys are short 'dogs. They are 9-3 ATS the past 12 times when getting points. The Buccaneers are a step down in class for the Cowboys.
|
11-15-15 |
Browns +5.5 v. Steelers |
|
9-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
58 h 40 m |
Show
|
I can't see Ben Roethlisberger playing in this game. That puts the Steelers in peril for this heated, division rivalry game because the Browns, while not talented, can be ornery. They have an excellent track record as underdogs, too, 10-5-1 ATS since Mike Pettine became coach in 2014. Subtract Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell. Sub in Landry Jones, one of the weakest backup quarterbacks in the league, and the Steelers' offense loses their potency. The oddsmaker realizes this. That's why this is one of the lowest totals on the board. So taking more than four points is huge. The Browns have had 10 days between games having played in last Thursday's game. That's given them enough time to get Josh McCown back along with wide receivers Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins and several defensive backs from their battered secondary. Cleveland is not going to the playoffs. So the Browns have few chances to get up for games. This is one of those times against a hated division foe that has kicked them when they were down. With their bye coming up next week, I expect the Browns to hold nothing back. McCown has played surprising well for them. He holds a quarterback edge on Jones. I'm fine if McCown doesn't play and Johnny Manziel does since he's practiced with the first-unit all week and has shown improvement. He brings a running dimension that McCown doesn't.
|
11-14-15 |
Washington State +10.5 v. UCLA |
Top |
31-27 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 5 m |
Show
|
Everything is in place for Washington State to pull the upset and defeat UCLA. Even if that doesn't happen, the Cougars should definitely be able to hang in. To get double-digits is a nice bonus. I like UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen. But I really like Washington State sophomore quarterback Luke Falk. He leads the country in passing yards with 3,376. He's also tied for second in touchdown throws with 33 against just seven interceptions. The Bruins defense has been hit hard by injuries. There isn't a senior starter left. The Bruins shut out Oregon State last week. I actually believe that works in Washington State's favor. Not only did it perhaps play a part in this inflated line, but it gives the Bruins a false sense of confidence. Oregon State has a depleted offense. The Cougars are cooking behind Falk. The team is comfortable in Mike Leach's high octane system this being his fourth season in Pullman. The Bruins haven't had experience dealing with Leach's unique schemes being so young on defense. Washington State has won seven of its last eight games while also going 7-1 ATS. The Cougars are 4-2 in the Pac-12 with their defeats occurring to California by six and Stanford by two. The Cougars led by more than a touchdown in the second half against both of those teams. Washington State has covered all six of its Pac-12 games. The Cougars are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. Playing in the Rose Bowl is a big deal to them. UCLA has covered only one of its last six home games and is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as home chalk.
|
11-14-15 |
Western Michigan +5.5 v. DePaul |
|
63-69 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 19 m |
Show
|
DePaul has failed to cover in its last six non-conference games. I see that trend continuing here. Western Michigan has had three consecutive 20-win seasons. The Broncos are one of the best teams in the MAC. DePaul is one of the three worst teams in the Big East. The line is higher than it should be because Connar Tava, the Broncos' best returning player, is out with a broken foot. But the Broncos have been practicing for weeks without him. Western Michigan still has enough depth, athleticism and flexibility with a deep roster to overcome Tava's loss.
|
11-13-15 |
Rice v. California -15.5 |
Top |
65-97 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 3 m |
Show
|
California has won its last nine opening games. That streak should easily continue against Rice. The Golden Bears are going to be extremely strong this season with three of their top scorers back and bringing in a strong recruiting class. The Golden Bears are especially strong in the backcourt where Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird are now joined by Georgetown transfer Stephen Domingo. Cal also has a pair of 7-footers coming off the bench to bolster its already strong frontcourt that will have a huge size advantage in this matchup. Rice is an extremely young team that is going to be vulnerable early in the season with just one senior and 10 freshmen/sophomores.
|
11-13-15 |
Texas -11 v. Washington |
|
71-77 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
Early money has come on Texas and it's smart money. New coach Shaka Smart is a great fit for the Longhorns with his trapping, full-court pressure style. Washington is vulnerable to it starting four freshmen. The Huskies are in transition after losing eight players and an assistant coach during the off-season following 15 losses in their last 20 games of the season.
|
11-13-15 |
Rockets -5 v. Nuggets |
|
98-107 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
The Rockets are a bunch of talented head cases. So far they are underachieving at 4-4. But this spot and a correction in their outside shooting makes them worth backing here. Houston was stunned by the Nuggets in its opening home loss losing by 20 points. The Rockets may have got caught peeking ahead to this huge revenge spot in their last game when they were upset by the Nets at home, 106-98, this past Wednesday. The Rockets rely on James Harden and hitting their 3-point shots. The Rockets made 34.8 percent of their 3-point shots last season. This season they are making just 28.4 percent from beyond the arc. Denver ranks 24th in 3-point defense allowing opponents to make 36.8 percent. That total goes up to 41.1 if you count the Nuggets' last six games. The Nuggets heavily rely on turnover-prone rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. The Rockets hold a strong backcourt edge with James Harden while Dwight Howard has looked better each game giving the Rockets an inside force. The Nuggets could be thin again in the backcourt if veteran backup point guard Jameer Nelson has to miss a third straight game because of a lower back injury. Before losing to the Nuggets, the Rockets had covered the past four times they played Denver.
|
11-13-15 |
Blazers v. Grizzlies -6.5 |
Top |
100-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 56 m |
Show
|
Neither team is playing well. The difference is the Grizzlies are a proven playoff contender with the same solid core that made them one of the best teams in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are a stripped down version that can't match the Grizzlies' front line and lacks depth. Add in a favorable situation for Memphis and it's worth the investment to lay the points. This sets up well as a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies. They've dropped four in a row. The losing streak began in Portland eight days ago when the Grizzlies were blown out in embarrassing fashion, 115-96. Memphis then lost road games to the Jazz and Clippers by two points before returning home to lose to the world champion Warriors two nights ago. The Grizzlies have proven talent and depth. They have been one of the premier defensive teams. They haven't suddenly stopped being good. They've just run into tough competition. Now they step down in class and have tremendous motivation. Portland has lost three in a row. The Trail Blazers are giving up 113.7 points per game during its losing skid. Opponents are shooting better than 52 percent from the field during this time span. The Trail Blazers are a bad road team - 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 away contests - and have traditionally struggled at Memphis losing the past seven times there. The Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS the last six times hosting Portland. Damian Lillard, Portland's best player, is dealing with a torn nail on his right thumb. Portland needs all the big men it can muster against Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Co. But the Trail Blazers could be without center Meyers Leonard, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in Portland's last game.
|
11-11-15 |
Spurs -7 v. Blazers |
|
113-101 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
Not only are the Spurs far superior to the Trail Blazers, but the schedule lays out for them. The Spurs last played on Monday and won't play again until Saturday when they host lowly Philadelphia. So the Spurs should be holding nothing back. In fact, this is a special game for them because it marks LaMarcus Aldridge's return to Portland. The Spurs will want to do all they can to make Aldridge look good against his former team. The Spurs have the frontcourt advantages and depth to beat the Trail Blazers by double digits. San Antonio has covered six of its last eight road games. The Trail Blazers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus opponents with a winning record.
|
11-11-15 |
Clippers v. Mavs +7 |
Top |
108-118 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is the home game the Mavericks have had circled ever since DeAndre Jordan backed out of his word to come to Dallas. After Jordan verbally agreed to sign with the Mavericks in free agency, various Clippers personnel came to his home and convinced him to change his mind. The Mavericks did not take kindly to this dirty pool. Dallas is down this year. The Mavericks are not in the Clippers' class. They are borderline playoff team at best. But they will be going all out in this matchup. The Mavericks played their entire 13-man roster last night in a 120-105 road loss to the Pelicans. The Mavericks were never in that game. Dallas coach Rick Carlisle sacrificed that game to set up this spot. No Dallas starter logged more than 23 minutes last night. The Clippers aren't going to be taking this game as serious as Dallas is especially after whipping the Mavericks, 104-88, in LA on Oct. 29. The Mavericks shot just 36.1 percent from the floor in that game and didn't have Chandler Parsons, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews. All three veterans will be on the floor tonight. That was a rough game with four technical fouls called along with a number of hard fouls. Jordan is the worst free throw shooter in the NBA making only 34 percent of his free throws. Jordan is likely to go to the foul line a lot. Chris Paul isn't 100 percent due to a sore groin. The Clippers defeated the Grizzlies two days ago. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on one day's rest. They also have a division road game on Thursday night against the Suns. That's a bigger game for them. It's also my Game of the Week!
|
11-09-15 |
Bears +4.5 v. Chargers |
Top |
22-19 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 54 m |
Show
|
San Diego isn't nearly good enough to overcome its multitude of injuries to beat many teams by more than a field goal, including the Bears. The Chargers have lost six of their last seven game. They are on a four-game losing streak. The Chargers' two victories have come by a total of eight points. Those wins were against the Lions and Browns, whose combined record is 3-14. Chicago has been better than perceived thanks to excellent coaching from head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both of whom came from the Broncos and are very familiar with San Diego. The Chargers, though, aren't so familiar with the Bears, who they last played in 2011. Each of the Bears' last four games have been decided by three or fewer points. Jay Cutler has been much better this season. He's been aided greatly by the well-respected Gase. Having Alshon Jeffery back makes a huge difference for Chicago's offense. The Chargers have surrendered 24 or more points in every one of their games. San Diego has zero rushing touchdowns in its last seven games. Chicago hasn't yielded a rushing touchdown in its last five games. Philip Rivers is having another super season, but the Chargers are not balanced and minus their best wide receiver, Keenan Allen. Chicago won't have Matt Forte. But Jeremy Langford is an underrated backup and Chicago is far healthier than the Chargers. San Diego will be without its left tackle and center. The Chargers also could be down a third starting offensive lineman as left guard Orlando Franklin is doubtful. Tight end Ladarius Green isn't likely to play either. The Chargers are beat up, too, defensively. Linebackers Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman are out. Three other key defenders - lineman Corey Liuget, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Eric Weddle - are questionable. Unlike the Bears, the Chargers have not had their bye yet. That comes next week. They are battered and worn down. It's too much to ask them to cover a point spread of more than a field goal.
|
11-09-15 |
Bulls -7.5 v. 76ers |
Top |
111-88 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
|
The winless 76ers are as bad as they have been during their last two tanking seasons. Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games and has lost to Chicago 11 of 12 times, including the last six. It's how the serious opposition takes the 76ers in determining the point spread. The Bulls have been up and down under first-year coach Fred Hoiberg. They are coming off an embarrassing 102-93 home loss to another bottom feeder, the Timberwolves, this past Saturday. That game went into overtime where the Bulls managed to not score a point during the extra session. Humiliating. Chicago doesn't play again until Friday when it hosts Charlotte. So I see the Bulls holding nothing back. This is an opportunity to regain their confidence and get Hoiberg a needed victory. The Bulls have far more talent than the 76ers and also a much stronger bench. Chicago is one of the deepest teams in the league, which is a key if this game should reach garbage time. That's always a strong possibility when the 76ers are involved.
|
11-08-15 |
Eagles -2.5 v. Cowboys |
|
33-27 |
Win
|
100 |
58 h 55 m |
Show
|
Dallas beat the Eagles, 20-10, back in Week 2. It was a costly victory as the Cowboys lost Tony Romo. They haven't won since going 0-5, 1-4 ATS. Dallas is averaging less than 15 points a game during its last four games. Matt Cassel has been as bad as Brandon Weeden and that's as bad as it gets. The Cowboys have scored two touchdowns in their last three games. Dez Bryant is back, but his value is shot because he doesn't have a quarterback who can get him the ball. He caught just two passes for 14 yards last week. The Eagles are rested coming off their bye week. They are healthy again on defense. Philadelphia is very underrated defensively ranking in the top three against the run and top seven versus the pass, according to Football Outsiders. The Eagles have picked off 11 passes while permitting 10 touchdown throws. They have 19 takeaways in seven games. The Cowboys, by contrast, have one takeaway during their last five games. Dallas has given up an average of 4.74 yards per rush during its last five games. Chip Kelly is sharp enough to tweak his system to feature more running plays for DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to take advantage of Dallas' weaknesses. The Eagles' ground attack has picked up averaging 5.1 yards per rush during the last three games.
|
11-08-15 |
Lakers v. Knicks -4.5 |
Top |
95-99 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
The records show the Lakers to be 1-4 and the Knicks 2-4. But there is a class difference here. The Knicks are a level higher than the Lakers and they are boosted by a favorable situation. New York is much improved from last season's disaster. The Lakers were a disaster, too, last season - and they remain a bottom five team. Each of the Knicks' six games have been against a playoff team. Their losses were to the Bucks, Spurs, Cavaliers and Hawks. The Lakers, by contrast, haven't met a playoff opponent yet. Their games have come versus the Timberwolves, Kings, Mavericks, Nuggets and Nets. Not only are the Knicks the more battle tested foe, but they are in a very good spot. This is an early start time. It means for the Lakers their biological clocks have to adjust to playing a morning game by West Coast time. LA opened its five-game road trip with a 104-98 win against the hapless Nets on Friday night. The Lakers have failed to cover the last six times after winning in their previous game. They also are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at Madison Square Garden. New York lost on Friday at home to the Bucks. The Knicks are desperate to reward their home fans as they are 0-3 at home. They are 7-1-1 ATS following a defeat, though. The Knicks went 2-0 versus the Lakers last season - and are much better this year. There also is the Phil Jackson factor. The former long-time Lakers head coach is the Knicks' president. The Knicks certainly don't want to lose at home to Jackson's old team.
|
11-08-15 |
Raiders v. Steelers -4 |
|
35-38 |
Loss |
-105 |
102 h 25 m |
Show
|
Bad spot for Oakland. Near desperation time for Pittsburgh. The Raiders are coming off a hugely satisfying home win against the Jets. Now, though, they have to fly East for an early start time against the Steelers. The Raiders are 1-15 SU, 6-10 ATS in their last 16 Eastern Time Zone games. Look for Pittsburgh's passing attack to be much better now that Ben Roethlisberger had a game to get the rust off. Losing Le'Veon Bell hurts, but the Steelers are fortunate enough to have one of the better backup running backs, DeAngelo Williams. Oakland ranks second-to-last in pass defense. The Raiders have surrendered at least two touchdown passes in every game but one. Pittsburgh's defense has been much better than perceived ranking fifth in fewest points allowed at 18.4 per game. That number shrinks to 16 points in the Steelers' last six games. Pittsburgh has held four teams to their lowest point total of the season, including the Patriots, Bengals and Cardinals. At 4-4 the Steelers are in must-win mode.
|
11-08-15 |
Titans +8.5 v. Saints |
|
34-28 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 57 m |
Show
|
Look for the Titans to come out fired-up playing harder and with more intelligence under new coach Mike Mularkey.
Marcus Mariota gives the offense a huge lift and the running game should work better against the Saints, who allow the second-most yards per game in the NFL and third-most points per game at 29.2.
Tennessee has an underrated secondary and it's going to be better this week with Perrish Cox, the team's best cornerback, set to return from an injured hamstring.
The Saints achieved three of their four victories by a combined 15 points and that includes a six-point win in overtime. Their other victory was by 10 points against the Falcons, who were minus three in turonver ratio.
The Saints simply aren't good enough to be laying more than a touchdown like this against a team that should show much better than what is perceived due to Mariota being back and a coaching change.
|
11-07-15 |
Minnesota v. Ohio State -23.5 |
|
14-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
38 h 43 m |
Show
|
No pun intended, but the Buckeyes are in a "Kill' spot here. A big factor why is Minnesota having little left in the tank after an emotional home game last week against Michigan. That was the Gophers' first game following Jerry Kill's resignation due to health reasons. The Gophers gave everything they had as double-digit 'dogs, but lost 29-26. The Gophers had driven all the way to Michigan's 1-yard line at the end of the game, but were stuffed and didn't execute good clock management. Now the physical and emotionally-spent Gophers go on the road against the top team in the nation. Making matters worse for Minnesota is that Ohio State is rested after being idle last week. Urban Meyer teams are 15-4-1 ATS off a bye, 7-2 ATS the past nine times. Ohio State is 22-1 since last season. They have won the statistics battle in every one of those 23 games. J.T. Barrett is suspended, but I see no drop-off in quarterbacks for the Buckeyes with Cardale Jones. He's a monster upgrade on Minnesota's Mitch Leidner, one of my least favorite quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Leidner has only two more touchdowns than interceptions. Ohio State backup quarterback Braxton Miller is far better than Leidner. It's not just Jones. The Buckeyes are loaded everywhere, including running back where Ezekiel Elliott leads the Big Ten in rushing and has rushed for triple digits in his last 13 games.
|
11-07-15 |
Hawaii v. UNLV -9.5 |
Top |
21-41 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 21 m |
Show
|
I've never been in the habit of laying points with UNLV, but circumstances make this a bargain spot to back the Rebels. UNLV is much improved under first-year head coach Tony Sanchez. He's been the best Rebels coach in nearly 30 years. The Rebels are far better offensively with quarterback Blake Decker in the lineup. He returned last week from missing two games with a shoulder injury and helped the Rebels hang with Boise State for more than three quarters before their defense caved. Now the Rebels step way down in class to host a bone weary Hawaii team in disarray following a 58-7 loss to Air Force last week, the team's worst home loss in school history. Hawaii coach Norm Chow was fired right after that defeat. The Warriors return to the mainland for the fifth time in seven weeks. This also marks the Warriors' 10th consecutive week of playing. They have not had a bye all season. This would be brutal on any team, but it hits the Warriors even harder because they are undersized and lack depth. Their defense couldn't stand up to Air Force running the ball 83 times. Hawaii's defense was on the field for 45 minutes. Before that game, Hawaii faced five opponents in a row who ran the ball 50 or more times.
While Hawaii is dealing with extreme fatigue issues and being in disarray with a coaching change this late in the season, UNLV is in revenge mode. The Rebels lost in controversial fashion to the Warriors last year on the road, 37-35, when they were penalized twice for excessive celebration following a go-ahead touchdown with 15 seconds left. The Rebels believed they were homered in that game by a slow moving clock official. Hawaii pulled out that victory with a touchdown pass on the final play. So don't expect the Rebels to be sympathetic to the Warriors and their sad plight.
|
11-07-15 |
Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +9 |
|
42-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 45 m |
Show
|
Notre Dame got past Temple, 24-20, in a physical road matchup last week. Now the Irish get a physical Pittsburgh team coached by Pat Narduzzi. He was Michigan State's highly respected defensive coordinator and knows the Irish well. Pittsburgh has played Notre Dame very tough. The Panthers won the last meeting, 28-21, at home two years ago. The Panthers also covered against the Irish in 2011 and 2012 losing each of those games by three points. Notre Dame is 8-13 ATS during its last 21 road contests. The Irish have been riding backup quarterback DeShone Kaiser. He's played well for the most part, but doesn't always make wise decisions. Pitt has gotten steady play from junior quarterback Nathan Peterman, who has completed close to 68 percent of his throws and has a 10-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Panthers also have one of the best wide receivers in the nation, Tyler Boyd. He's just 49 yards away from holding Pitt's school record for receiving yards.
|
11-06-15 |
Nuggets +18 v. Warriors |
Top |
104-119 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
It's dangerous to step in against Golden State. But this is a clear flat spot for the Warriors. Golden State is 5-0 beating all playoff teams. The Warriors' last two victories were grudge matches against the Grizzlies and Clippers. The Warriors play again on Saturday so they'll want to rest players and reduce starter's minutes. Denver is a young, up-and-down team. The Nuggets are capable, though. They proved that upsetting Houston on the road. The Nuggets are not a bottom feeder having defeated the Lakers by 11 points on the road. The Nuggets should play hard here after losing by 12 at home to Utah last night. Fatigue is not an issue this early in the season. This is an inflated line and needs to be taken advantage of.
|
11-05-15 |
Grizzlies -4 v. Blazers |
|
96-115 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 32 m |
Show
|
Portland is breaking in four new starters, has a weak bench and carries a heavy fatigue rating playing for the fifth time in seven days. The Trail Blazers are in a letdown spot, too, after a 108-92 road upset win against Utah last night. The physical Grizzlies are one of the toughest opponents to face when tired. They have owned Portland winning 13 of the past 15 matchups, including six of the last eight in Portland. Those Trail Blazers teams were much stronger than this current one. Memphis was embarrassed by Golden State on Monday losing by 50 points. The Grizzlies got on track two nights ago winning by 14 against the Kings. While Portland has regressed, Memphis still is the same team it has been the last few years - one of the best defensive teams in the league and an elite club.
|
11-05-15 |
Browns v. Bengals -11 |
|
10-31 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
I can't see anything but a lopsided Bengals victory here. Cincinnati has way too much offense for Cleveland. The Bengals won't come in overconfident either after suffering a stunning home loss to Cleveland last year on a Thursday night. The Browns are going to be missing three members of their secondary, steady wide receiver Brian Hartline and starting quarterback Josh McCown. I have no faith that Johnny Manziel can keep Cleveland in the game against this caliber of defense and on a short week.
|
11-04-15 |
Kings +9 v. Suns |
|
97-118 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 0 m |
Show
|
Sacramento was rusty and minus DeMarcus Cousins when it lost, 103-89, to Memphis last night. The timing wasn't good for the Kings. They had been idle since Saturday, while the Grizzlies were super fired-up having been embarrassed by 50 points by Golden State on Monday night. Cousins is going to miss this game, too. But the Kings fortified their frontcourt during the offseason and have had a game now to adjust to Cousins' absence. Sacramento is better in non-pressure type spots, which this matchup is. Phoenix does not have an imposing frontcourt. The Kings have matched up well to the Suns winning three of four last season. Sacramento also is 4-1 ATS during its last five visits to Phoenix and 3-0-1 ATS the last four times when playing without rest. The Suns' strength is their backcourt. The Kings' backcourt can match them. Rajon Rondo has been playing well this season. So has Darren Collison. The Kings face a much shorter, less physical and much worse defensive team in the Suns than they did last night against the Grizzlies.
|
11-04-15 |
Nets +8.5 v. Hawks |
|
87-101 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 54 m |
Show
|
The Nets won't be lacking for motivation. The Hawks eliminated them in the first round of the playoffs last season. Brooklyn played Atlanta tough in that series taking the heavily favored Hawks to six games while covering four times. Atlanta isn't sneaking up on teams like last season. The Hawks also aren't as good as last season having lost DeMarre Carroll. Atlanta, though, is off an impressive 98-92 road win against the hot Heat. That not only means a letdown for the Hawks here knowing they are playing a weak opponent, but also puts into play the real possibility of Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer resting starters since it's a back-to-back spot. This is something Budenholzer did a lot last season in emulating his mentor Gregg Poppovich. Budenholzer was an assistant to Popovich at San Antonio from 1996-2013. This is a perfect opportunity for Budenholzer to do this since the Hawks are facing a weak foe and playing for the fifth time in seven days and third in four days. There still is the matter of the 0-4 Nets playing well enough to cover. They certainly haven't looked good in getting outscored by an average of nearly 15 points per game. But I trust Lionel Hollins to have the Nets ready for this matchup. Big man Brook Lopez is playing well and the Nets are due to shoot better, especially from 3-point range where normally reliable Joe Johnson has missed nine of 12 from the arc and has been in a scoring slump averaging fewer than 10 points per game.
|
11-04-15 |
Spurs v. Wizards +4 |
|
99-102 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 54 m |
Show
|
The Wizards finally proved they could beat the Spurs, winning 101-93 at home last Jan. 13. That ended a 17-game losing streak to San Antonio. Now Washington hosts San Antonio again - and I like the Wizards' chances. The timing is good for the Wizards catching the Spurs this early in the season and playing on the road for the third time in four days. San Antonio is in transition right now. Roles have changed. There's an adjustment period going on with star newcomer LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs aren't a cohesive unit yet. Far from it. However, they've been fortunate to have played the Nets, Celtics and Knicks so they are on a three-game winning streak. Now the Spurs are in a step-up situation. The Wizards should be ready. They have been idle since Saturday when they played horrible defense in a 117-110 home loss to the Knicks. The Wizards are itching to get back on the court to redeem themselves and now have the confidence knowing they beat the Spurs the last time they hosted them. The Wizards have one of the best backcourts in the league with John Wall and Bradley Beal, who is very underrated. Marcin Gortat is an underrated big man.
|
11-03-15 |
Grizzlies -5 v. Kings |
|
103-89 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 20 m |
Show
|
It's difficult to come back on the Grizzlies after they lost by 50 points to the Warriors last night to begin their season-long five-game, nine-day road trip. The only plus that can be taken from that humiliation for the Grizzlies is that none of their starters played more than 26 minutes. I see the prideful, veteran Grizzlies coming back fired-up to take their frustrations out on perennial bottom-feeder Sacramento. The Kings will be without their best player, DeMarcus Cousins. The Kings went 6-17 without Cousins last season. Cousins, the Kings' leading scorer and rebounder, suffered a sore right Achilles' tendon injury during Saturday's loss to the Clippers. The Kings have been idle since then, but that's actually too much time off for this early in the season. So I see the Kings not only missing their key player but also being rusty. The Grizzlies can't take another loss here on this road trip. The Grizzlies' next four games are at Portland - which is down but remains tough at home - at Utah, at the unbeaten Clippers and then home to the unbeaten Warriors. Sacramento can't match Memphis' defense nor stay with the Grizzlies on the boards, especially minus Cousins, plus the Kings aren't strong mentally.
|
11-03-15 |
Northern Illinois +8 v. Toledo |
Top |
32-27 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 10 m |
Show
|
Toledo is unbeaten at 7-0. But I'm not convinced the Rockets are better than Northern Illinois. The Huskies very well could have the better skill position players and defense. They are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. This includes a 7-1-1 ATS mark the past nine times they've been a road underdog. Northern Illinois quarterback Drew Hare has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 142 quarterback rating. Toledo quarterback Phillip Ely has a 15-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 128.9 passer rating. The Huskies' three losses came to Central Michigan by 10 even though they outgained Central Michigan by 41 yards, by seven on the road to Ohio State and by three on the road to Boston College. The Huskies also have defeated the Rockets during the past five meetings.
|
11-02-15 |
Grizzlies +9 v. Warriors |
Top |
69-119 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 57 m |
Show
|
Memphis has proven it can hang with Golden State taking the defending champions to six games in the playoffs last season, including winning Game 2 at Oracle Arena, 97-90. The Grizzlies have their same cast of rough customers that helped them to finish in the top five in defensive scoring each of the last four years. This figures to be a fierce, intense battle with the Grizzlies out for revenge. Memphis has covered in seven of its last 10 visits to Golden State. The Warriors haven't seen a defense this good yet. Golden State has looked good in going 3-0. But two of the victories came against 0-3 New Orleans, which ranks last in defense, has injuries and point guard Jrue Holiday playing limited minutes. The Warriors' other victory occurred against the struggling 0-3 Rockets, who rank 25th defensively and 28th in defensive shooting percentage. Steve Kerr has yet to return to the bench and big man Andrew Bogut is questionable.
|
11-02-15 |
Thunder -2 v. Rockets |
|
105-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 52 m |
Show
|
The Thunder are 3-0. The Rockets are 0-3. The records are what they are. Oklahoma City has looked great with a healthy Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka back in the lineup. The Thunder are coming out firing after last season's 3-12 opening that they never could recover from. Durant is averaging 30 points. The Rockets have been just the opposite shooting 37.1 percent from the field and averaging 88.7 points in blowout losses to the Nuggets, Warriors and Heat. James Harden hasn't adjusted to new point guard Ty Lawson yet. Harden is shooting 22 percent from the field and the Rockets are averaging 17 turnovers a game. Dwight Howard is set to play, but he's going to be rusty having played once in the last three weeks. The Rockets aren't likely to have big man Terrence Jones while the Thunder upgraded their frontcourt with Enes Kanter. Oklahoma City played yesterday, but were able to rest its starters during the fourth quarter in a 117-93 blowout of Denver. Durant logged less than 28 minutes. The Thunder is 13-6 ATS following a victory. Houston has had problems since preseason and they haven't gone away. The Rockets have lost all of their games by 20 points. The latest coming yesterday at Miami. Their first two defeats were at home to Denver and Golden State. Harden played 39 minutes on Sunday. So right now this spread is way too short.
|
11-01-15 |
Packers -2.5 v. Broncos |
Top |
10-29 |
Loss |
-123 |
105 h 38 m |
Show
|
Both teams are 6-0 and off byes. The Packers' 6-0 is real. The Broncos' 6-0 is bogus. Denver has had to battle in every one of its games. The Broncos ranked eighth in point differential despite not having lost. The Broncos' offense has produced only nine touchdowns. The problems are a below average offensive line, mediocre running backs and a washed-up Peyton Manning. Manning should have retired after last season. He ranks 31st in the passer ratings with a 72.5 ranking. He's tied for the most interceptions thrown with 10. He's as smart and savvy as ever, but he can no longer drive the ball and his accuracy is down. To be brutally honest, he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league now. Sad, but true. The Packers have a monster quarterback edge with Aaron Rodgers. Eddie Lacy and Davonte Adams should be at full strength, too. Denver's home field and outstanding defense are definite pluses. However, they can't outweigh Green Bay's considerable offensive edge. Today's game is about offense not defense. The rules ensure that. Manning can't keep up with Rodgers.
|
11-01-15 |
Montreal +8.5 v. Edmonton |
Top |
22-40 |
Loss |
-118 |
65 h 57 m |
Show
|
Edmonton is trying to clinch the Western Division. But the Eskimos are going to have problems doing that against Montreal. The Alouettes are a desperate team trying to keep their prideful streak of making the playoffs a 20th consecutive year. They are in must-win mode. Montreal looked good last week defeating Toronto, 34-2. That was the Argonauts' worst home loss since 2004. The Alouettes are giving up 16.3 points per game during their last three games. Now they're getting a boost on offense from quarterback Kevin Glenn, who will be playing in his third game for Montreal. Edmonton hasn't been impressive during the past month going 2-3 ATS. The Eskimos did defeat Saskatchewan by 11 laying nine points last week. But In their previous four games, the Eskimos won by six laying 11 to British Columbia, won by a point giving six to Winnipeg, won by four against Calgary and won by three in overtime against British Columbia laying nine. Edmonton edged Montreal by three points in its earlier meeting this season.
|
10-31-15 |
Warriors v. Pelicans +5 |
Top |
134-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 39 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans have revenge for last season's playoffs when the Warriors swept them four games. New Orleans did cover three of those matchups, though. Now the Pelicans have added revenge after losing this past Tuesday on opening night to Golden State, 111-95. So why should things be different just five days later? The spot, setting, Golden State injuries and Anthony Davis that's why. First, the spot. The Warriors just finished a bigger game knocking off Houston on the road last night. New Orleans followed up its loss to the Warriors by playing this Wednesday and had no energy - physically and mentally - in a 112-94 road loss to Portland. Second, the setting. This is the Pelicans' home opener. They are desperate to avoid starting 0-3 for the first time since 2004-05. New Orleans finished last season covering six of its last seven at home. New Orleans is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games versus opponents with winning road records. Third, Golden State injuries. Andrew Bogut is out. That means the Warriors can't go big against Davis. Coach Steve Kerr isn't on the trip. He's home recovering from back surgery. Star shooting guard Klay Thompson is off to a slow start caused by an ailing back. He might not see action against the Pelicans after playing 24 minutes last night. Then there's the Davis factor. He's the best big man in the game. Davis entered this season averaging 30.9 points, 12.3 rebounds and shooting 57 percent from the field in his last seven games against the Warriors. But he inexplicably missed 16 of 20 shots from the floor versus the Warriors in the first meeting. That's not going to happen a second time.
|
10-31-15 |
Oregon State v. Utah -24.5 |
|
12-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a kill spot for Utah after it lost to USC on the road last week. Not only are the Utes looking to get untracked in a big way, but Oregon State is a beaten up and demoralized team. The Beavers are inexperienced on defense and suffered injuries to their running back and offensive line. They don't have the depth to patch up the holes. The Beavers have only covered three of their last 20 games and have failed to cover in their last eight road contests. They are 1-10 ATS during their past 11 Pac-12 games.
|
10-31-15 |
Clemson v. NC State +10.5 |
Top |
56-41 |
Loss |
-105 |
25 h 39 m |
Show
|
Clemson is sitting at 10-0 having destroyed Miami, 58-0, in its last game and with its biggest game of the season on deck versus Florida State on Nov. 7. The Tigers are in an ambush spot - and North Carolina State has the right ingredients and personnel to pull off the feat. The Wolfpack are 5-2 SU and ATS. They have covered eight of their last 10 games going back to last season. They will be tremendously motivated having lost to Clemson each of the last three seasons, including 41-0 last year on the road. That was the worst loss in Dave Doeren's three years at North Carolina State. Clemson has its revenge game of the year on deck versus Florida State. That's the game the Tigers are pointing to not this one. The Wolfpack rank second in the ACC in total defense and have a very reliable quarterback, Jacoby Brissett. He has a 33-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio during the past two seasons. Clemson has an explosive offense with Deshaun Watson. But the Wolfpack can play keep away. They rank second in the country in time of possession. Note, too, that North Carolina State is dangerous on special teams ranking first in the ACC in kick return yardage and punt return yardage.
|
10-30-15 |
Blazers v. Suns -4.5 |
|
92-110 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
Look for a Suns bounce back after Phoenix was blasted by Dallas, 111-95, two nights ago. Portland, on the other hand, looked great in dispatching New Orleans at home, 112-94, this past Wednesday. Phoenix isn't that bad, nor is Portland that good. The Trail Blazers, in fact, are going to struggle this season especially on the road. They have four new starters. One is C.J. McCollum, who scored 37 points against the Pelicans. McCollum isn't going to be that hot again. The Trail Blazers caught the Pelicans playing on the second of back-to-back nights having just faced the defending world champion Warriors in a huge revenge spot. Portland has failed to cover in six of its last eight visits to Phoenix. The Suns are going to have their intensity up not only for being embarrassed at home in their opener, but also because the organization is honoring popular Steve Nash. Note, too, that the teams play at Portland on Saturday. So if the Suns break to a big lead, Portland coach Terry Stotts may take it easy in order to set things up on Saturday for his team.
|
10-30-15 |
Jazz -7 v. 76ers |
|
99-71 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 43 m |
Show
|
Utah closed as one of the hotter teams in the NBA last season going 21-11. The Jazz were the strongest defensive club in the league down that stretch. The Jazz's priority is to start fast this season. That didn't work out in their first game, a 92-87 road loss to Detroit. Utah plays again on the road in their next game. All together, the Jazz open with a brutal slate of eight of 10 road matchups. So this game has high priority for Utah. The 76ers, on the other hand, have a different priority. They have a young, short-handed roster - only nine healthy players and an extremely weak bench - and are in rebuilt mode again playing for the future. It was not a surprise the Celtics blew out Philadelphia two nights ago. The 76ers could have the worst offense in the league. It's a big concern of their coach, Brett Brown. Utah has won the last five in this series, holding the 76ers to an average of 77 points on 34.6 percent shooting in last season's two victories.
|
10-30-15 |
Thunder v. Magic +8.5 |
|
139-136 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a dangerous, flat spot for Oklahoma City. The Thunder were impressive in beating San Antonio, 112-106, at home two nights ago. Up next for the Thunder following this game is a home game on Sunday versus 1-0 Denver followed by a road game against Houston on Monday.
Orlando has been stockpiling talent for the past couple of seasons and now it's ready to pay dividends. The Magic nearly upset Washington in their opener, losing by one point when John Wall hit a shot with 12 seconds left. Orlando led by eight in the fourth quarter. The Magic nearly beat the Wizards despite missing 21 of 26 shots from 3-point range. The Magic have a number of young players poised for breakout seasons - Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Elfrid Payton - plus a steady, double-double machine in big man Nik Vucevic. The Thunder are going to have to deal with the distraction of Billy Donovan returning to Florida. A more quiet factor is the Magic are much better coached this season with Scott Skiles on the bench. He has a track record of turning around bad teams having done it three times.
|
10-29-15 |
Hawks -3.5 v. Knicks |
Top |
112-101 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 12 m |
Show
|
Let's not overreact to one game. The line is shorter than normal for this matchup because the Hawks lost their opener on Tuesday at home to the Pistons while the Knicks upset the Bucks on the road last night. Yes, New York is improved. And, yes, Atlanta is down a bit from last season. But the Hawks still are way better than the Knicks. The gap has narrowed, but not nearly enough where the Hawks, winners of 60 games last season, should be this short of a favorite against New York, which won 43 fewer games last season than Atlanta. The Knicks matched up well to Milwaukee and caught the Bucks minus three of their top eight players, including suspended Giannis Antetokoumpo. New York's depth is improved, but Carmelo Anthony is extremely rusty. He played last night for the first time since February. He's nowhere near the All-Star caliber player he's been. The Hawks were ambushed by the Pistons. Detroit played great while Atlanta had an off-night missing 19 of 27 shots from 3-point range. The Hawks have their entire team back from last season with the exception of DeMarre Carroll. Their core of Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver is intact. The Knicks can't match that. The Hawks added Tim Hardaway Jr., who's expected to play tonight after being inactive against the Pistons. Hardaway played for the Knicks and can provide useful insight.
|
10-28-15 |
Hornets +6.5 v. Heat |
|
94-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
|
Charlotte was impressive during preseason going 7-1. The Hornets traditionally are good in an underdog role. They have a healthy Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. Those two missed a combined 37 games last season. The Hornets also upgraded their roster adding Nicolas Batum, an excellent two-way player, Jeremy Lin to upgrade their point guard depth and adding muscle up front with Spencer Hawes and Tyler Hansbrough. The Heat have star power, but Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng are past their peaks. All were banged-up last season. The Heat weren't able to develop much chemistry during preseason due to minor injuries and key veterans being rested. Goran Dragic also is still trying to fit in. The spot is ripe for the Hornets to steal a game here, or at least certainly keep things close.
|
10-27-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors |
Top |
95-111 |
Loss |
-102 |
29 h 5 m |
Show
|
The Pelicans have been waiting all offseason for this opening matchup after Golden State ended their season by sweeping them in the playoffs. New Orleans did cover three of the four playoff games and I see the Pelicans covering here, too. It's always a distraction for the defending champions playing in their first game of the season celebrating ring night. This is especially so for the Warriors, who won their first championship in 40 years and will be without their steady head coach Steve Kerr. Kerr won't be coaching the Warriors probably for at least the first week as he recovers from two offseason back surgeries. That's significant because it elevates 35-year-old Luke Walton into the interim head coaching spot. Walton was the Warriors' No. 3 assistant last season. He faces a huge challenge of making the right substitutions. This is tricky to do because the Warriors have a lot of depth. Kerr was very good at putting the best lineup on the floor depending on matchup and game flow. Alvin Gentry was the Warriors' No. 1 assistant coach last season and he's now the Pelicans head coach. That's a huge edge for New Orleans when playing Golden State. Anthony Davis is the best big man in the game. Gentry believes Davis can reach even greater heights in an up-tempo offense, which is his style. The Pelicans won't have Tyreke Evans, but they do have Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon healthy.
|
10-25-15 |
Cleveland Browns v. St Louis Rams -5.5 |
Top |
6-24 |
Win
|
100 |
82 h 56 m |
Show
|
This is my Favorite's Play of the Month. I'm not surprised the line has gone up since I released the play as the Rams clearly are the right side. The Browns have gone hard three straight weeks losing 30-27 to the Chargers, beating Baltimore in overtime and losing in overtime last week to the Broncos. Cleveland doesn't have an abundance of talent. The Browns' skill position players are among the weakest in the league. It takes a supreme effort for the Browns to hang in against most opponents. I believe the Browns are out of gas for this road matchup. St. Louis is coming off its bye week. The Rams hold matchup, situation and field edges that should result in more than a touchdown victory. The Browns are a grass team. This is their first dome game. Cleveland ranks 30th in total defense, last in run defense. The Rams have a potential superstar running back Todd Gurley. He's healthy now and has rushed for 305 yards in his last two games. I'm not a fan of Rams quarterback Nick Foles, but he's still better than Browns journeyman Josh McCown and he has speed at the flanks. The Browns were missing two key members of their secondary last week, cornerback Joe Haden and free safety Tashaun Gipson. Neither practiced on Wednesday. I'm releasing this play Wednesday night as I see the line going higher. Foles should be able to pick his spots, too, off play-action since the Browns will be keying on Gurley. St. Louis has 19 sacks in five games. The Rams have the best pass rushing defensive front in football. McCown plays scared when under pressure. I envision multiple turnovers from him against this defense. The Rams are stepping down in class after facing Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers. They should dominate McCown and his lack of weapons. Coaching-wise this is a mismatch, too, between Jeff Fisher and Mike Pettine.
|
10-25-15 |
New Orleans Saints v. Indianapolis Colts -4 |
|
27-21 |
Loss |
-102 |
51 h 34 m |
Show
|
The Saints have the worst defense in the league and are on the road. Not a good combination. Chuck Pagano isn't the sharpest coach around that's for sure. But the Colts do play hard for him. They have a great track when playing bad teams - 19-4 ATS versus foes under .500. Indianapolis also is 17-3 ATS following a loss. Andrew Luck showed enough against the Patriots that he's past his shoulder injuries. to be trusted to put up a lot of points, especially against this opponent. Luck is 21-7 at home compared to 16-14 when on the road. Luck should light up a Saints secondary that has permitted 11 touchdown passes and has only two interceptions and is allowing 8.6 yards per pass.
|
10-25-15 |
Houston Texans +5 v. Miami Dolphins |
|
26-44 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 34 m |
Show
|
Miami got a boost with a new head coach and defensive coordinator last week steamrolling Tennessee. But the Dolphins are as mediocre as Houston and the Texans will be far better prepared now that they have film on what the Dolphins did under interim coach Dan Campbell and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. The Dolphins are in a flat spot. They were super pumped for their first game under new leadership last week. Up next following this game for Miami is a Thursday matchup versus New England. The Dolphins have failed to cover in their last five home games, losing four of them straight-up. Houston's DeAndre Hopkins is making a case of being the best wide receiver in football. The Dolphins are thin in the secondary. Cornerback Brice McCain is unlikely to play and Brent Grimes, Miami's other corner, is less than 100 percent because of a knee injury. The Texans are getting better now that Arian Foster is close to 100 percent and Brian Hoyer is back entrenched at quarterback. Those two are massive upgrades on Ryan Mallet and Alfred Blue.
|
10-24-15 |
Utah +3.5 v. USC |
Top |
24-42 |
Loss |
-103 |
52 h 60 m |
Show
|
Utah is in its fifth year in the Pac-12 and can play with the big boys. The Utes are 6-0 and it's a strong 6-0. They are the only team in the Pac-12 South without a loss. The Utes beat the Trojans last season, 24-21, and they are in great shape to do it again Saturday. Not only are the Utes a well-rounded power, but they catch USC in disarray. The Trojans have talent, like always, but they have under performed and been mismanaged. They are still cleaning up the Steve Sarkisian mess. Utah can match USC at the key skill position spots with quarterback Travis Wilson and running back Devontae Booker, who ranks 10th nationally in rushing averaging 130.5 yards per game.
|
10-23-15 |
Utah State v. San Diego State +5 |
Top |
14-48 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 50 m |
Show
|
San Diego State is playing its finest football limiting its last three opponents to an average of 9.3 points per game. The Aztecs have held opponents to 162.7 yards per game this month, lowest in the FBS for October. This is a huge game for both teams. But the timing is great for the Aztecs and not just because they are peaking. They catch Utah State traveling on a short week after the Aggies crushed Boise State, 52-26. That was one of the great victories in Utah State history. It also could mean a letdown this week. Utah State's lopsided win against Boise State, though, was a bit misleading. The Aggies converted eight turnovers into 35 points. The yardage was even. The Aggies have become even more of a running team with Kent Myers replacing Chuckie Keeton at quarterback. San Diego State has become extremely stingy allowing yards on the ground holding foes to 33.3 yards per game this month, best in the nation, and just 1.2 yards per carry this month. The Aztecs have a very good runner, D.J. Pumphrey. He's rushed for more than 100 yards in his last three games. San Diego State does not have a dynamic offense, but it is efficient. The Aztecs have scored on 94 percent of their drives inside the red zone.
|
10-18-15 |
New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts +10 |
|
34-27 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 24 m |
Show
|
I'm fully aware of New England's strong history against the Colts during the past three years - a 4-0 record with four blowouts. But I'm locking in at this price rang in the full belief Andrew Luck is going to play. And if Luck plays this price range is way too high given the Colts are home where they are 21-7-1 ATS (75%) during their last 29 games at Lucas Oil Stadium. Luck is going to provide a huge spark and emotional lift after missing the last two games. New England is the best team in the AFC right now. But the Patriots haven't played a difficult schedule drawing the Steelers at home, Bills on the road, Jaguars at home and Cowboys minus Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. The Patriots have faced just one good quarterback. Their rebuilt secondary hasn't faced a strong test in three games. The Colts have a lot of talent at the skill positions. Frank Gore is averaging 4.47 yards and has had 10 days to get his legs fresh as the Colts last played on Thursday giving them extra rest and prep time. New England ranks among the bottom 12 in rush defense. Tom Brady is going to be without his blindside protector as left tackle Nate Solder suffered a season-ending biceps injury.
|
10-18-15 |
Houston Texans +1.5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars |
Top |
31-20 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 32 m |
Show
|
Now that Bill O'Brien has figured out what everybody else knew that Brian Hoyer is his best quarterback, the Texans are ready to improve. They start here against one of the worst teams in the NFL - the Jaguars. Jacksonville has shown small improvement, but not enough to warrant being favored here especially since Arian Foster finally is fully healthy for Houston. Foster can dominate this game. So can J.J. Watt on the other side of the ball. Jacksonville can't match and has no answer for those players. The Jaguars are banged-up. Their best running back, T.J. Yeldon, may not play due to a groin injury and their best offensive lineman, guard Brandon Lindor, is out. The Jaguars gave up six sacks last week in a loss to Tampa Bay. Blake Bortles suffered an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder so he won't be 100 percent. Hoyer isn't anyone's idea of a Pro Bowl quarterback, but he's a huge upgrade on Ryan Mallet in terms of accuracy, game-managing and being a leader. Hoyer also has put up decent numbers - a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 62.1 percent completions and 8.21 yards per pass attempt. The Jaguars have one of the weakest home fields as reflected in a 7-18-1 ATS mark.
|
10-18-15 |
Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions -3 |
|
34-37 |
Push |
0 |
34 h 16 m |
Show
|
The Lions are at low ebb right now. But they finally are in a good spot. The Bears are one of the least talented teams in the NFL. They've been coached up by John Fox, but are off a surprising road upset victory coming from 14 points down to beat Kansas City and have multiple injuries. This also is the Bears' first dome game. The only other time they were on turf they were shut out by Seattle. Jimmy Clausen was the Bears' quarterback in that game. Jay Cutler is an upgrade. However, Cutler is turnover-prone and could be missing his three top receivers and his left tackle. Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal missed last week and may not play Sunday. Martellus Bennett, a very good tight end, may be out, too. The Bears are hurting defensively, too. Their most experienced defensive back, Antrel Rolle, is out as is one of their better run defenders, linebacker Shea McClellin. The Lions are the lone winless team in the NFL. They desperately want to erase that stigma. The LIons have looked bad, but they've had a hard schedule. In their last three games they've played the Broncos, Seahawks on the road and Cardinals. The Bears are playing their second road game in a row and third in four weeks. They have a bye next week. It's a flat spot for them. Detroit has the offense to get its frustrations out in a big way. I see Matthew Stafford having his best game of the year. The Bears have intercepted just two passes while giving up 11 touchdowns through the air and 65 percent completions. Calvin Johnson manhandled cornerback Kyle Fuller last year in two games catching a combined 17 passes for 249 yards.
|
10-18-15 |
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
13-25 |
Loss |
-105 |
33 h 29 m |
Show
|
Much credit to the Steelers for upsetting San Diego this past Monday. But I don't see the Steelers minus Ben Roethlisberger pulling off a second consecutive upset. Arizona continues to be underrated and is a good fit against this opponent. The Cardinals have a high-powered passing attack, underrated ground game and an aggressive defense. The Steelers have allowed more than 70 percent completions, fourth-worst in the NFL. They are vulnerable to Carson Palmer and once again will be minus their top defensive talent, linebacker Ryan Shazier. The Cardinals' offense, good to being win, is upgraded even more with the return to health of Andre Ellington and Michael Floyd. The spot is tough on Pittsburgh off a last-play, emotional road win against the Chargers and playing on a short week. The Cardinals aren't going to lack motivation. Not with Bruce Arians who had a parting of the ways with the Steelers four years ago. Michael Vick is way past his prime. The Cardinals not only lead the NFL in interceptions, but their secondary also has posted the fourth-lowest quarterback rating. Vick is going to have problems figuring out Arizona's defensive schemes. I see him committing a bunch of turnovers.
|
10-18-15 |
Denver Broncos -3.5 v. Cleveland Browns |
|
26-23 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
This line has come down enough where I'm going to get involved with the Broncos. Too much of a class difference. Even an aged Peyton Manning can take advantage of a weak Browns run defense and a secondary that has given up 10 touchdowns throws with only one interception and will be missing stud cornerback Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson. Josh McCown has put up fancy numbers the past three weeks, but he's stepping in against perhaps the best defense in the NFL. Denver has a bye next week. A focused Broncos squad should win this matchup by more than a field goal.
|
10-17-15 |
Oregon State v. Washington State -8 |
|
31-52 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 53 m |
Show
|
Oregon State is outmatched here and can't keep up with Washington State's high-powered attack and star quarterback Luke Falk. The Cougars are averaging nearly 400 yards through the air. Falk has thrown 15 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Oregon State's pass defense doesn't look bad statistically, but that's because the Beavers rank 111th in run defense. The Cougars have the balance to take advantage. Oregon State has failed to cover in its last four away contests.
|
10-17-15 |
Alabama v. Texas A&M +4 |
Top |
41-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
100 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is unbeaten Texas A&M's biggest game of the four-year era of Kevin Sumlin. Everything is in place for the Aggies to upset Alabama. The Crimson Tide are down a notch. The Aggies are a rising power. This is their chance to prove it - and they get Alabama at home, are rested after being idle last week and hold a powerful revenge incentive. The key question is how improved are the Aggies from the team that was humiliated 59-0 on the road by Alabama last year? The answer is much improved, enough to beat the Crimson Tide straight-up. Since that loss, the Aggies switched quarterbacks to Kyle Allen, hired respected defensive coordinator John Chavis from LSU to improve their defense - which they have - and become more balanced offensively with a power ground attack spearheaded by Tra Carson. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover in four of their last five games. They are vulnerable to Texas A&M's up-tempo style. Alabama's major weakness is its secondary. The only team Alabama has faced that is similar in offense to Texas A&M was Mississippi. The Rebels exploited Alabama's secondary throwing for 341 yards and three touchdowns while scoring 43 points in a six-point victory. Allen has multiple stud wide receivers - Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones - to stretch the field plus reliable Carson on the ground to keep the Crimson Tide's defense honest.
The Aggies rank 15th in the country in scoring averaging 39.2 points per game. Allen has a 13-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. I like him and the Aggies' offense much more than Alabama's offense and its quarterback Jake Coker, who has an 11-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Chavis is one of the most respected defensive coordinators in the country. He knows Alabama well from having been at LSU. The Tigers under Chavis held the Crimson Tide to under 22 points in all but one of their last five games. Chavis has two star edge pass rushers, Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, to cause havoc for Coker. Garrett and Hall have combined for 12 1/2 sacks and 16 tackles for a loss while forcing five fumbles. The Crimson Tide has had to play Georgia and Arkansas the past two weeks. Texas A&M had a bye last week. The Aggies haven't left the state of Texas all season. They are rested and ready. Their time has come.
|
10-17-15 |
Ole Miss -10.5 v. Memphis |
|
24-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
42 h 45 m |
Show
|
The rankings say Mississippi No. 12 and Memphis No. 22. But make no mistake there remains a huge class difference between these two teams. Mississippi far outclasses Memphis. The Rebels are road tested having faced Alabama and Florida, while this is a step up for Memphis. The Rebels beat the Tigers by 21 points last season, gaining 323 more yards. Yes, Memphis is improved but its up-tempo style is going to encounter problems going against a very strong SEC foe compared to its usual AAC defenses that tire easier. There also is zero chance the Rebels overlook the Tigers, who carry a 12-game unbeaten streak. Memphis' home field advantage isn't that big either because the Mississippi campus is less than 75 miles and the Rebels will carry strong support.
|
10-12-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. San Diego Chargers -3 |
Top |
24-20 |
Loss |
-119 |
98 h 26 m |
Show
|
The oddsmaker considers these teams even with this point spread factoring in the Chargers' home field advantage being worth a field goal. But San Diego is a touchdown better than Pittsburgh due to the Steelers dropping down at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Michael Vick. Forget the past. The 35-year-old Vick is just a shell of his former self. His sloppy ballhandling and lack of work ethic really hurt him now that his once awe inspiring talent has all but diminished. Vick has lost 14 of the last 20 times he's started. The Steelers' defense isn't nearly strong enough to compensate for a mediocre offense with a turnover prone quarterback. The Chargers should have three of their starting offensive linemen healthy after being out last week. Astute San Diego coach Mike McCoy knows how to get the best of Philip Rivers, who remains in his prime.
|
10-11-15 |
Chicago Bears v. Kansas City Chiefs -9 |
Top |
18-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
86 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a kill spot for the frustrated Chiefs, who are much better than their 1-3 record indicates. The Chiefs have already gone against three undefeated teams - Broncos, Packers and Bengals. The Bears are in total rebuild mode. They aren't going to win too many games this season. One of those rare victories came this past Sunday at home against Oakland. Now the Bears are traveling fat and happy to have achieved their first victory. The Chiefs have a top 10 offense and their defense is stepping down in class. Justin Houston ranks with J.J. Watt as the best pass rusher in football. He'll be going against a Bears offensive line that will be missing its injured starting center and possibly left tackle. Jay Cutler is highly turnover prone when pressure is applied to him, which it will against a fierce pass rushing opponent in a very hostile environment. Chicago's average loss this season is by 19.6 points. I see a similar result here. The Chiefs have covered five of their last six home games when taking on a foe with a losing record.
|
10-11-15 |
St Louis Rams +10 v. Green Bay Packers |
|
10-24 |
Loss |
-123 |
67 h 35 m |
Show
|
The Rams have that winning combination with the best pass rushing defensive front in football and potential franchise back Todd Gurley to run the ball. Finally healthy and comfortable in a new offense, Gurley had his breakout party last week rushing for 146 yards on 19 carries against Arizona. Green Bay has improved its run defense but still ranks 21st versus the run. The Packers are vulnerable to a great pass rushing defensive line minus right tackle Bryan Bulaga. Green Bay's weak links on its offensive line are replacement right tackle Don Barclay and left tackle David Bakhtiari, who will be matched against Robert Quinn. The Packers won't be able to double team any of the Rams because St. Louis doesn't have a weak link on its defensive front. Instead look for Green Bay to run the ball more than normal, which eats clock. Aaron Rodgers already is down Jordy Nelson and doesn't expect to have Davonte Adams either. The last time Nick Foles played at Lambeau Field was in 2013 when he led the Eagles to a 27-13 win throwing for 228 yards and three touchdowns. Gurley makes Foles and everyone else on offense a better player. Jeff Fisher has long been a money-making as an underdog coach with better than a 58 percent ATS record when his team gets points.
|
10-10-15 |
California v. Utah -7 |
Top |
24-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
60 h 20 m |
Show
|
When last spotted Utah was hammering Oregon, 62-20. That was two weeks ago. The Utes were idle last week. They are rested, prepared and have the offense and defense to cover this number against surprising Cal. Utah is stronger defensively than the Golden Bears and that defense gets even better with the return from injury of pass rusher supreme Hunter Dimick, who had double-digit sacks last season. Quarterback Travis Wilson heads a balanced Utah attack that also features Devontae Booker, who averages 111 yards rushing, and an offensive line that has allowed only one sack all season. I'm still leery about Cal's defensive improvement. Let's see how it holds up in this very tough road setting against a good offense. The Golden Bears rely on their excellent quarterback, Jared Goff. He leads the Pac-12 in touchdown passes and passing yards. But I also like Utah's defense and special teams particularly punter Tom Hackett. I don't see the Golden Bears keeping this one within single digits.
|
10-10-15 |
Navy +14 v. Notre Dame |
|
24-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 7 m |
Show
|
Navy has played Notre Dame very tough the past two seasons and are better this season, while the Irish have lost key offensive starters and face a huge look-ahead home revenge game against Southern Cal next week. The Midshipmen have won 10 of their last 11, including their past eight games. They haven't been 4-0 since 2004. A huge key to Navy's success is quarterback Keenan Reynolds. He's a Heisman Trophy candidate who has scored 73 career touchdowns, most of any college quarterback in history. Navy also has a strong pass rush and a defense that its coach, Ken Niumatalolo, says is the best since he became the team's coach in 2008. The Midshipmen nearly upset Notre Dame two years ago at South Bend losing, 38-34. Navy was within three points with 4:18 left in last year's game against Notre Dame before losing, 49-39. Notre Dame exerted a lot of energy in a driving rain last week at Clemson trailing by 18 before losing, 24-22. The Irish can't help but look ahead to next week when they host USC. It's a huge revenge spot for the Irish, who lost 49-14 to the Trojans last year.
|
10-05-15 |
Detroit Lions v. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 |
Top |
10-13 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 24 m |
Show
|
Seattle's defense is rounding into championship form with the arrival of safety Kam Chancellor last week. Detroit has problems offensively. The Lions rank last in rushing, their work-in-progress offensive line has allowed Matthew Stafford to absorb way too much punishment and Calvin Johnson has lost some of his explosiveness. Playing in the NFL's loudest outdoor venue can only make these problems worse for Detroit. This is the 0-3 Lions' season. But their offense hasn't found balance and the offensive line hasn't come together. That's not going to happen here against this elite defense. Detroit also has road issues covering just one of their last eight away matchups. Russell Wilson doesn't lose at Century Link Field. He's won 23 of 25 starts there. The Seahawks won't have Marshawn Lynch, but they are deep at running back and the Lions still will be missing their best defensive player, linebacker DeAndre Levy. Much is being made of the Lions in must-win mode. Only the 1992 San Diego Chargers made the playoffs after an 0-4 start. But the Seahawks know they must win this game as their next two games are against undefeated teams - at the Bengals and hosting the Panthers.
|
10-04-15 |
Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -3 |
Top |
20-26 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 11 m |
Show
|
The Saints are desperate at 0-3. They'll receive a huge lift with Drew Brees returning to the lineup. It's a Sunday night nationally televised game at home so the Saints will be super pumped. The Saints' offense is better than it has shown. It can expose a vulnerable Dallas defense that has relied on its offense to hide its shortcomings by playing ball control. The Cowboys, though, aren't capable of sustaining long drives minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray. Backup quarterback Brandon Weeden has lost his last nine starts. Weeden needs weapons to succeed, but Dallas just has fringe, role players manning the skill position spots with Bryant out and Murray in Philadelphia.
|
10-04-15 |
Cleveland Browns +7.5 v. San Diego Chargers |
|
27-30 |
Win
|
100 |
42 h 27 m |
Show
|
Granted San Diego has a big edge at the skill positions. But the Browns have five Pro Bowl players combined in their offensive line and secondary. Philip Rivers can't do much when he's not adequately protected, nor can the Chargers take advantage of Cleveland's vulnerable run defense when their offensive line is battered by injuries. Left guard Orlando Franklin already has been ruled out for San Diego. The Chargers had three other offensive line starters who didn't practice Friday and may not play either. They also could be down to their third-string tight end as Antonio Gates remains under suspension and Ladarius Green is questionable. The Browns aren't flashy, but quietly they are 5-0 ATS when taking five or more points under Mike Pettine. They also have the most dangerous player on the field in big-play guy Travis Benjamin, who already has five all-purpose touchdowns. Veteran Josh McCown should have time to pick his spots. The Chargers only have one sack on the season. The Chargers have been serious money-burners failing to cover in 11 of their last 14 games. They are just 1-5 during their last six home games.
|
10-04-15 |
Houston Texans +7 v. Atlanta Falcons |
Top |
21-48 |
Loss |
-130 |
143 h 19 m |
Show
|
Atlanta is a surprising 3-0. The Falcons are fat and happy right now. New coach Dan Quinn has improved the Falcons. But they still are more finesse than brawn, vulnerable mentally and physically to the Texans. Houston is a power team. No team runs the ball more than the Texans. I like Houston's edges in the trenches. The Falcons don't have a dominant blocker who can handle J.J. Watt. The Texans can control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons' defensive line, too. The Texans are expecting to get back from injury this week star running back Arian Foster and left tackle Duane Brown, their best offensive lineman. Ryan Mallet is getting better as he settles into a starting role. This will be his third start in a row. Alfred Blue had a breakout performance this past Sunday and would be capable if Foster still isn't ready to play. The Texans rank in the top 12 in yardage both offensively and defensively. The Falcons, on the other hand, rank in the bottom six in yards given up. Atlanta could be 0-3 in which case this line would be much different. The Falcons trailed in the fourth quarter during all three of their games. They took advantage of a sleepwalking, out of sync Eagles team at home opening week, beat a bad Giants team in Week 2 and this past Sunday were able to overcome a big early deficit to defeat Dallas, which was minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and several key defensive players. The Falcons are ripe for a loss. The Texans are a bad matchup for them.
|
10-03-15 |
Oregon -7.5 v. Colorado |
Top |
41-24 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 10 m |
Show
|
Oregon is down this season without Marcus Mariota, but do you believe Colorado can upset the Ducks? I sure don't. The Buffaloes, as we know, don't win Pac-12 games having lost 12 straight league contests. They draw an angry Ducks team fresh off a humiliating 62-20 pounding by Utah last week. Utah is better than advertised and Oregon still is several tiers above Colorado. I'm fine with whomever the Ducks use at quarterback, Vernon Adams or Jeff Lockie. The Buffs still have to deal with running back Royce Freeman, one of the best sophomores in the country with 450 yards rushing and 23 career rushing touchdowns. Oregon has beaten Colorado each of the past five seasons - and none of the games have been close. The Ducks won by 34 points last season and by 41 two years ago. Colorado is slightly improved and Oregon is down from a year ago, but the gap still remains at double-digits plus Oregon is going to be highly motivated to get on track with a lopsided victory.
|
10-03-15 |
Washington State +17.5 v. California |
|
28-34 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 37 m |
Show
|
Cal just nipped Washington State by one point last season when the Cougars missed an easy field goal. I believe the Cougars can hang with the Golden Bears again. Washington State has one of the best quarterbacks on the West Coast in Luke Falk. He has a pair of excellent receivers. The Cougars hung 59 points and 812 yards on Cal last season. Washington State has improved its secondary and has a pair of good linebackers. This also is terrible spot for Cal. The Golden Bears are off big road victories against Texas and Washington. Up next after this game for Cal is a road matchup against Utah. It's going to be easy for Cal to take Washington State, a perennial bottom feeder in the Pac-12, for granted. Cal also has been a money-burner at home failing to cover in 17 of its last 23 home contests.
|
10-03-15 |
San Jose State v. Auburn -20 |
|
21-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
44 h 57 m |
Show
|
Consecutive SEC losses to LSU and Mississippi State have left Auburn in an angry mood. Look for the Tigers to vent their frustrations on visiting San Jose State. This is a kill spot for the Tigers, who are stepping way down in class. It's not a secret that Auburn coach Gus Malzahn is seeking far better offensive production. That should come this week with Sean White getting more comfortable at quarterback and going against a much easier defense. San Jose State has failed to cover in its last six road games. The Spartans are making the long trip from the West Coast just for a fat paycheck. They don't figure to be competitive. The Spartans were blasted by Auburn, 59-13, last season. The line on that game was Auburn minus 33. Now we have a two-touchdown adjustment. It's too much especially considering the situation. Not only is Auburn in a kill spot, but San Jose State is in a flat spot having just beat fellow Mountain West Conference rival Fresno State last week. The Spartans go back to Mountain West action next week playing UNLV. There also is a fatigue factor working against the Spartans as this is their third road game in four weeks.They didn't look good in road defeats to Air Force and Oregon State during this span. The Spartans' best player is running back Tyler Ervin. He rushed 42 times last week. There's no reason for the Spartans to overwork him in this non-league game especially if they fall far behind as anticipated.
|
09-27-15 |
Denver Broncos -3 v. Detroit Lions |
Top |
24-12 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 3 m |
Show
|
There are reasons why Detroit is 0-2. Namely the Lions' offense isn't clicking and their defense is much worse than last season. Matthew Stafford is far from 100 percent. Denver has the top pass defense in the league and has the pass rushers to take advantage of Detroit's banged-up, refurbished offensive line that hasn't played well. On defense the Lions are greatly missing the departed Ndamukong Suh and injured linebacker DeAndre Levy. The Lions surrendered 33 points, 28 first downs and 483 yards to San Diego in Week 1. Then last week the Lions allowed the Vikings 350 yards and 20 first downs. Peyton Manning doesn't possess the physical skills he had in his prime. But he's still perhaps the smartest quarterback in the game and is much better in the shotgun. That's the formation Manning should find himself in against the Lions after new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak made the mistake of putting Manning under center opening week. Detroit's run defense is down from a year ago. I see C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman producing their best games of the season, which will set up Manning for his still deadly play-action passes. The Broncos also run better out of the shotgun averaging 3.6 yards from that formation compared to 2.7 when Manning is under center.
|
09-27-15 |
Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Tennessee Titans |
|
35-33 |
Loss |
-110 |
40 h 24 m |
Show
|
The Colts are out of the gates slow. But keep in mind they faced two of what I consider to be the top four defenses in football the Bills on the road and Jets where they suffered a turnover festival. Do you really see Indy opening 0-3? I sure don't. The Colts are stepping way down in class against the Titans, a team they swept last season winning by an average of 20.5 points. The Colts have won the past seven in this series going 6-0-1 ATS. The Titans defense was weak last season and has yet to face a good offense this season going against the Buccaneers and Browns. Even so the Titans surrendered two long touchdown passes to Johnny Manziel before the Browns went conservative. If Manziel can do that against the Titans, it's scary to think of what Luck can do against the Titans. The Colts have injuries in their secondary, but they do have their top cornerback, Vontae Davis, healthy enough to play. This is a kill spot for the Colts.
|
09-26-15 |
UCLA v. Arizona +3.5 |
Top |
56-30 |
Loss |
-120 |
59 h 8 m |
Show
|
Arizona has covered five of the past six times it has hosted UCLA. Now it's the Wildcats' turn to beat the Bruins straight-up. It's a triple revenge spot for Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez in his fourth season with the Wildcats. Arizona has knocked off six ranked foes during Rodriguez's tenure and is 4-0 ATS as a home 'dog. The Wildcats have the offensive firepower and their defense gets a huge lift with the expected return of linebacker Scooby Wright, last year's Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. He had missed the last two games because of a knee injury. The jury still is out on UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, who threw three interceptions last week. This is his first Pac-12 road start. Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon has been much more steady with a 10-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to Rosen's 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Solomon has completed better than 68 percent of his throws. He can rely on Nick Wilson, one of the best running backs in the conference, and a deep crop of receivers. The Wildcats rank among the top seven teams in the country in points, yards and rushing. They did pad their statistics by burying Northern Arizona last week, but were able to provide some rest to the their starters in the 64-point victory. So they should be fresh for this Pac-12 opener. The timing is right, too, for the Wildcats as they catch UCLA without three of its defensive starters, including star linebacker Myles Jack. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice this week.
|
09-26-15 |
UMass +28 v. Notre Dame |
|
27-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
113 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a huge letdown spot for Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off a gutty upset beating 14th-ranked Georgia Tech at home this past Saturday. The Irish have a much bigger game on deck playing at Clemson next week. So the Irish aren't going to be too concerned about lowly UMasss. The Minutemen, though, are dangerous under Mark Whipple. They are dangerous on offense. They nearly beat Temple losing 25-23 last week. The unbeaten Owls could be the best team in the American Athletic Conference. UMass has covered seven of its last 10. Notre Dame has lost six players. The Irish are down their quarterback, Malik Zaire, their leader rusher from a year ago, Tarean Folston, and safety Drue Tranquill. These injuries have left the Irish inexperienced at quarterback and thin in the secondary. UMass is a throwing team ranking 19th in passing yards. Notre Dame has covered only once the past six times it has played a foe with a losing record.
|
09-20-15 |
Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers -3 |
Top |
17-27 |
Win
|
100 |
146 h 43 m |
Show
|
This isn't just a normal game for the Packers. It's their Revenge Game of the Century. And that's saying a lot since they've been in the NFL since 1921! I've personally closely followed the Packers since 1963, being a native of Wisconsin, and have never seen a bigger revenge game. The Packers dominated the Seahawks on the road for 55 minutes of the NFC Championship Game this past season. Mike McCarthy's conservative play-calling and being unable to recover an on-side kick cost the Packers the game in which they once held a 16-point lead. But now things are different. The Packers finally get Seattle in Green Bay. Even without Jordy Nelson, the Packers have eight Pro Bowl-worthy players on offense. Aaron Rodgers put up insane record numbers at Lambeau Field last season: a 28-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 133.2 regular season passer rating, highest in NFL history. Seattle's defense is down from its previous two dominant seasons. Attrition and defections have chipped away at the Seahawks' defensive line and secondary depth. Two defensive guru coaches - Gus Bradley and Dan Quinn - have left for head coaching jobs. Safety Kam Chancellor, the quarterback of the defense, is holding out. The Rams - with maybe the worst offensive line and starting two rookie linemen - scored 34 points on the Seahawks. Green Bay's defense is middle of the road. Seattle has offensive line problems with a lot of shuffling. It's mediocre at best. So are the Seahawks' wide receivers. Marshawn Lynch hasn't had as many big games away from Century Link Field. Seattle isn't nearly intimidating and doesn't play nearly as well on the road. The Seahawks are 2-9 SU and ATS during their past 11 September road matchups. This is a kill spot for the Packers. They'll get it done in a big way.
|
09-20-15 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles -5 |
|
20-10 |
Loss |
-107 |
119 h 50 m |
Show
|
The Eagles finally got their offense in gear during the second half against Atlanta. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they had dug themselves into too big of a hole to recover. Still, they could have taken a late lead if not for a missed 44-yard field goal. The Eagles will be sharper in Week 2 at home. Dallas' pass rush is down without suspended Greg Hardy and injured Randy Gregory. The Cowboys also are without suspended linebacker Rolando McClain. The Eagles have improved defensively and draw the Cowboys minus Dez Bryant, their lone deep threat and by far their best receiver. The Cowboys lack the running backs and wide receivers now to trade points with the high-powered Eagles.
|
09-20-15 |
San Diego Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals -3 |
|
19-24 |
Win
|
100 |
116 h 38 m |
Show
|
The Bengals are better than perceived. They are solid on both sides of the ball without any major weaknesses. Cincinnati has been dominant at home going 14-2-1 SU, 13-3-1 ATS. The Bengals draw San Diego traveling from the West Coast with an early start time. The Chargers are not the complete team Cincinnati is. San Diego has a weak run defense, vulnerable to the inside pounding of Jeremy Hill. They also lack a good pass rush. Andy Dalton has his full complement of weapons with Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones healthy, unlike last season. On offense, the Chargers are without suspended tight end Antonio Gates and injured tackle D.J. Fluker. Melvin Gordon has yet to step up to provide more than a mediocre ground attack in support of Philip Rivers.
|
09-20-15 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -5 |
|
18-43 |
Win
|
100 |
115 h 24 m |
Show
|
The Steelers are a much better team than San Francisco and catch a huge scheduling break. The 49ers are off a home win Monday night against the Vikings and now must travel West to East on a short week. The 49ers had a lot to prove against the Vikings - and they did the job. Now they're in a letdown spot. This is an early start time, too, so their biological clocks are going to be off. The Steelers have extra rest and preparation time having opened last Thursday. The Steelers outgained the Patriots by 103 yards in their opening week loss. Even without suspended Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers have far more firepower than the 49ers. Colin Kaepernick has been in steady decline for the past two seasons. Even with his mobility Kaepernick was sacked an NFL-high 52 times last season. The Steelers' defense has a lot of youth. They will improve as the season goes on. The Steelers' defense will look a lot better against the 49ers.
|
09-20-15 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 v. New Orleans Saints |
|
26-19 |
Win
|
100 |
37 h 32 m |
Show
|
The Saints are getting by on reputation considering how big of a spread this is. Truth be told, the Saints' defense is awful again unable to get sacks or takeaways. Their secondary is highly vulnerable due to a cluster injury problem that has eliminated their two best defensive backs. Drew Brees can't cover this up anymore. Brees is past his prime and has the least effective weapons he's had since being with New Orleans. The Saints' home mystique no longer is there either. Not only did the Saints fail to cover in their last five games at the Superdome, but lost each game straight-up. Tampa Bay lost to the Saints in overtime and by three points during its two meetings last season. The Buccaneers are better this year. Jameis Winston should play much better this week after enduring butterflies in his first NFL start last Sunday. Not only is Winston going against a porous secondary, but he's expected to have Mike Evans. Evans missed Week 1, but should be a go this week. He's an elite, tall target. His presence makes Winston better.
|
09-19-15 |
Colorado -3 v. Colorado State |
Top |
27-24 |
Push |
0 |
28 h 5 m |
Show
|
I tabbed Colorado to be much improved in Mike MacIntyre's third season and I like the Buffaloes strong in this rivalry matchup. Colorado didn't show well opening week against Hawaii, but bounced back strong last Saturday destroying UMass. Note that this game is at a neutral site - Mile High Stadium in Denver. It's a big revenge spot for the Buffaloes, who blew a 10-point lead in last year's game. Colorado can run the ball and have a tough rush defense. Only two Pac-12 schools have a better run defense than Colorado statistically-speaking. So far I haven't been impressed with the Mountain West Conference. So getting a Pac-12 school at this low price represents excellent line value. No team in the Mountain West has a worst turnover ratio than the Rams, who are minus 5. Part of this stems from Colorado State undergoing a new offense and new regime under first year coach Mike Bobo. The Rams also are replacing their best quarterback ever, Garrett Grayson. I'm not as high on the Rams minus Grayson and their former coach, Jim McElwain.
|
09-18-15 |
Florida State -7 v. Boston College |
|
14-0 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 37 m |
Show
|
The line has shrunk low enough to get involved with Florida State, which holds a talent and speed edge on Boston College. The Seminoles have just reloaded following the Jameis Winston era. Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson is an experienced replacement for Winston and doesn't have to feel a ton of pressure as the Seminoles have one of the best running backs in the country, sophomore Dalvin Cook. He's already rushed for 422 yards and scored five touchdowns in the Seminoles' opening two blowout wins against Texas State and South Florida. Florida State's defense has looked good, too. Boston College is 2-0, too, but hasn't played anybody. The Eagles have rolled past a pair of FCS members, Maine and Howard. The Eagles are a young team and they have yet to be tested. Their starters only played one quarter against Howard. This is what Boston College coach Steve Addazio was quoted as saying about stepping this far up in class in taking on ninth-ranked Florida State. "I'm real worried about it right now," Addazio said. "There's not much you can do about it. Plus we're not a veteran team. ... It will be completely different." Sophomore quarterback Darius Wade is unproven in replacing record-setting dual threat Tyler Murphy and the Eagles also are breaking in five new offensive linemen.
|
09-17-15 |
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 v. Atlanta Braves |
Top |
5-0 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 51 m |
Show
|
Toronto can stake its claim to being one of the best teams in baseball. Certainly, the Blue Jays have the No. 1 offense. The Blue Jays have won by more than one run in each of their last 13 victories. The Braves can stake their claim to being one of the worst teams in baseball as evidenced by 40 losses in their last 52 games. That's expansion level bad, which the Braves nearly are being in a clear rebuilding stage. Atlanta has lost by more than one run during its past 22 defeats. Sparked by the return of Edwin Encarnacion, the Blue Jays got back to winning big on Wednesday crushing the Braves, 9-1. Toronto should do its customary damage against righty Matt Wisler. The Blue Jays are 25-9 in their last 34 games against a righthander. Wisler has been a disappointment. His results haven't matched the hype as he's 5-7 with a 5.60. He hasn't won since July 26. Atlanta is 0-6 in Wisler's last six starts. Twice in his last four starts Wisler has been rocked for seven earned runs while failing to reach the third inning. Meanwhile Toronto starter Marco Estrada has been consistently solid. Since the start of June, Estrada has gone 11-5 with a 3.11 ERA. Foes are batting only .204 against him during this span. Estrada has held opponents to three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts.
|
09-14-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 v. Atlanta Falcons |
Top |
24-26 |
Loss |
-122 |
16 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Eagles certainly looked sharp in preseason steamrolling the Colts, Ravens and Packers. Now looking good during preseason doesn't necessarily equate to an opening week win, but in the Eagles' case it's not a fluke. Philadelphia has achieved double-digit victories during each of Chip Kelly's first two years. Now, in Year 3 of Kelly's super high octane offense, the Eagles look the best they ever had under Kelly. The Eagles' defensive front seven has been upgraded, the secondary is fortified with quality depth at the nickel and dime spots and Sam Bradford is the most talented quarterback Kelly has had at Philadelphia. The Eagles also have the finest running back trio of any team led by defending rushing champion DeMarco Murray. The Eagles are ready to state their Super Bowl case with an offense that has yet to be stopped. The Falcons don't have nearly the defense to slow down Philadelphia. Defensive guru Dan Quinn, formerly the Seahawks defensive coordinator, makes his head coaching debut for Atlanta. Quinn is trying to overhaul the worst defense in the league from a year ago, a defense that recorded only 22 sacks. Quinn is implementing a 4-3 scheme. Atlanta's defense, at best, is a work in progress right now. Quinn brings excellent credentials. However, this is way too tough of a test and way too early for the Falcons to show the necessary major defensive steps to stop the Eagles' already-in-sync powerhouse offense that is better with the highly accurate Bradford. The Falcons are going to need to trade points with the Eagles, matching them score for score. I don't see Atlanta being able to keep up. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones get a lot of media attention. They are outstanding. I rate Jones as the best wide receiver in the NFC. But the Falcons have a very suspect offensive line that also is learning a new system and Atlanta also lacks a polished ground attack. The Eagles' first three running backs - Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles - are all better than anything the Falcons have at running back. The Eagles not only hold edges offensively and defensively, but on special teams, too. Atlanta's home field isn't nearly enough to compensate for any of that. The spread is cheap here. Lay it.
|
09-13-15 |
Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Oakland Raiders |
|
33-13 |
Win
|
100 |
196 h 22 m |
Show
|
There can be a tendency to overthink sometimes especially in the NFL. This game is an example of this. The Bengals are one of the few NFL teams without a glaring weakness. They made the playoffs each of the past four seasons. Their offense should be better this season with a return to health of A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and underrated tight end Tyler Eifert. Oakland should be slightly improved this season. But the Raiders are still at least two levels behind the Bengals projected to have the third-fewest victories of any team. The Raiders lost six game by 16 or more points last season. Derek Carr has yet to show he's more than just a check down quarterback. Oakland was held to 14 points or fewer in 62 percent of its games last season. Bottom line: The Raiders still are short on talent and depth. They simply aren't strong enough to hang within this short point spread of the Bengals.
|
09-13-15 |
Green Bay Packers -6.5 v. Chicago Bears |
Top |
31-23 |
Win
|
100 |
193 h 56 m |
Show
|
The Packers have Jay Cutler's number. Cutler has lost his last seven starts against Green Bay, which has dominated at Solder Field winning 18 of the last 22 times there. The Packers have intercepted Cutler 19 times in 10 games. Cutler has a strong arm and is not without talent, but he's a head case and the Packers are inside his head. The Packers don't need Jordy Nelson to bury a Bears defense that has ranked among the franchise worst during the past two years. This is saying a lot since Chicago entered the NFL in 1921! Chicago has some strong defensive coaches on board now, but they can't fix and rebuild this mess in one year. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has his own system, which he is trying to incorporate. The Bears lack the talent and personnel, however, to make it work. They also are thin at nose tackle with Jeremian Ratliff suspended. Green Bay has covered the last five times at Soldier Field and swept the Bears last year winning by an average of 31 points. Except for Nelson, the Packers have all of their offensive starters from last year back. The Packers' defense is much better than it looked against the Eagles during their third preseason game. The Bears have a cluster injury wide receiver problem. If Alshon Jeffery plays - which he didn't during all of preseason - his timing with Cutler would be off. The Bears already are down Kevin White and have been without their No. 2 and No. 3 wide receivers, too, as Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson have been hurt.
|
09-12-15 |
Temple v. Cincinnati -6.5 |
|
34-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
116 h 32 m |
Show
|
Congrats to Temple on beating long-time rival Penn State for the first time since 1941. Not to diminish the Owls' excellent home win, but Penn State was shockingly inept. The Owls don't have much time to celebrate as they travel to Cincinnati to face the offensively-loaded Bearcats. Not only does Cincinnati feature an outstanding passing attack headed by quarterback Gunner Kiel, but they have several excellent runners who unlike last season are fully healthy. The Bearcats won their last seven regular season games last season, all by eight points or more. They opened their season in style burying Alabama A&M, 52-10, at renovated Nippert Stadium. Cincinnati stays home while Temple has to travel off a week of celebrating the victory over Penn State. This is an important American Athletic Conference game for the Bearcats, who are on the road in three of their next four games. Cincinnati is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven ACC contests. No one doubts Cincinnati's outstanding offense. The key for the Bearcats is defensive improvement. Cincinnati looks improved there especially with its run defense. Temple does not have a strong offense. The Owls put up 27 points on Penn State. But in their previous seven games, the Owls averaged just 12.2 points per game. The spot and matchup set up well for Cincinnati.
|
09-12-15 |
Oregon State v. Michigan -14.5 |
|
7-35 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 9 m |
Show
|
Expect the Big House to be rocking in Jim Harbaugh's Michigan home debut. Also expect quarterback Jake Rudock to play better than he did in Michigan's opening loss to Utah last week. That came on the road. Now the Wolverines are home and stepping down in class drawing a low level Pac-12 team in Oregon State instead of the 24th-ranked Utes. Michigan not only has a huge talent edge, but Oregon State is traveling from the West Coast, playing at an unaccustomed early start time and lacking vital experience. First-year Oregon State coach Gary Andersen is installing a scaled down spread offense for his two freshmen quarterbacks. The Wolverines shouldn't have any trouble stopping this simplified offense. A new coach-new quarterback is rarely a good combination going on the road for the first time against a superior opponent. Oregon State wasn't necessarily impressive in a lackluster 26-7 opening week win against Weber State at home. Harbaugh will go after an inexperienced Beavers defense with a bevy of fresh running backs and a physical offensive line. Look for Rudock and the Wolverines runners to be much more in sync going from Week 1 into Week 2. Oregon State has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games.
|
09-10-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots -6.5 |
Top |
21-28 |
Win
|
100 |
78 h 54 m |
Show
|
When these two teams last met two years ago at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots buried the Steelers, 55-31. That was the most points the Steelers allowed in their 81-year history.
Tom Brady threw for 432 yards and four touchdowns helping the Patriots pile up a staggering 610 yards. Now it's two years later. And guess what? Pittsburgh's defense is far more inexperienced and worse than what it was in 2013. Troy Polamalu and Dick LeBeau are gone, too.
The Patriots received a huge mental lift with Brady's suspension overturned, while the Steelers experienced a huge mental jolt after not expecting Brady to see the field.
It has been a rough off-season and preseason for Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey with a broken leg. Star running back Le'Veon Bell is suspended. So is promising wide receiver Martavis Bryant.
The Steelers' defense has looked terrible giving massive indications they are going to struggle.
This is the 14th opening Thursday kickoff game. The home team has won 11 of the first 13. The Steelers have only covered one of their last nine September games.
|
09-06-15 |
Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals -1.5 |
Top |
7-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
14 h 56 m |
Show
|
The Royals have won 68 percent of their past 79 home games. They aren't going to lack for motivation here either having lost the first two games of this series to the White Sox by an embarrassing margin of 18-2. Prior to Friday, the Royals had beaten the White Sox 21 of 27 times. The Royals are the far superior team. They are going with their ace, Johnny Cueto, against call-up Erik Johnson. Cueto has lost his last three starts. But he's always been a strong day time pitcher and has a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his last three starts. I don't see him losing a fourth consecutive start especially in this pitching matchup and backed by the best bullpen in the majors. Johnson really struggled when he pitched in the majors last season posting a 6.46 ERA. He's faced the Royals twice before in his career and surrendered 10 runs in 10 innings. This is a kill spot for the Royals, whose last three victories have been by an average of 7.3 runs.
|
09-05-15 |
Wisconsin v. Alabama -10.5 |
Top |
17-35 |
Win
|
100 |
120 h 47 m |
Show
|
Too much of a class difference here for Wisconsin to stay within double digits of Alabama, especially being one-dimensional and lacking a passing attack.
Nick Saban wants to come out of the gate smoking after losing 42-35 to Ohio State in bowl action last season. Wisconsin, by contrast, lost 59-0 to the Buckeyes.
Wisconsin is in transition with a coaching change to Paul Chryst. Pittsburgh was a slow starter when Chryst coached the Panthers before coming to Wisconsin.
Alabama owns edges all over against the Badgers, who are more inexperienced the perceived defensively.
|
09-05-15 |
Texas v. Notre Dame -9.5 |
|
3-38 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 59 m |
Show
|
Texas has a big time reputation. But truth be told, the Longhorns can't compare to Notre Dame in terms of talent and experience. Texas' strength was its defense. The Longhorns, though, lost six starters, including four who were drafted by NFL teams. Notre Dame quarterback Malik Zaire is better than perceived and the Irish will control both lines of scrimmage. The Irish are home and off a confidence-building bowl win against LSU. Texas is in rebuild mode in Charlie Strong's second season. The Longhorns start a combined 12 freshmen and sophomores. They finished last season losing to TCU and Arkansas in a bowl game by a combined margin of 79-17. Texas doesn't have the goods to hang with an elite foe like Notre Dame, especially this early and on the road.
|
09-04-15 |
Washington v. Boise State -12 |
|
13-16 |
Loss |
-102 |
81 h 58 m |
Show
|
Washington underachieved last season and doesn't have nearly the talent it had in 2014. The Huskies are young and in rebuilding mode. So the timing of this opener at Boise State is not good for the Huskies and former Broncos coach Chris Petersen. Because of Petersen's return, this matchup takes on added importance and intensity for the Broncos and coach Bryan Harsin, a protegee of Petersen. Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks, but the Broncos have the more experience and talent. Given their motivation, strong desire to reach the Group of Five berth in a College Football Playoff b0wl and strong home field advantage, this shapes up as a kill spot of more than two touchdowns for the Broncos. Boise State returns 19 starters, including its entire offensive line and three defensive line starters that has back Mountain West Conference sack leader Kamalei Correa. The Broncos desperately want to avoid last season's slow 3-2 start. The Broncos are on a 9-game winning streak since then, including a 38-30 Fiesta Bowl win against Pac-12 South champion Arizona. Washington's defense was inconsistent last year and that was with three first-round NFL draft picks. On offense, the Huskies are breaking in four new offensive line starters. The Huskies are at least a year away from contending in the Pac-12.
|
09-04-15 |
Baylor v. SMU +37 |
|
56-21 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 24 m |
Show
|
Baylor blew out SMU, 45-0, at home opening week last season. Now the Bears are laying five touchdowns on the road against a much more stable and improved Mustang squad. SMU was dysfunctional after June Jones bailed on them just nine days into the season. Chad Morris, the former offensive coordinator at Clemson, has had nearly two years to put his imprint and upgrade SMU after replacing Jones. Look for the Mustangs to be improved under the respected Morris, who has an up-tempo offensive style. That style is key here because the Mustangs practice against it so they should be somewhat prepared for Baylor. The Bears were a scoring machine last year. They'll likely be a scoring machine this year, but they might be a little flat in this mail-in game. The Bears aren't that good to cover this monster road number without playing above average. Baylor is breaking in a new quarterback, offensive coordinator and punter. The punter the Bears lost was All-Big 12 punter Spencer Roth. He's replaced by a freshman. This is a much bigger game for the Mustangs. They bring back experience at the skill position and a quarterback, Matt Davis, who is a good runner and is experienced operating Morris' offense. Baylor ranked 107th against the pass last season. Baylor is just 3-7-1 ATS as road chalk during the last three years. The Bears, with new players at key positions, will use this game to work some kinks out. The Mustangs will be going all out. Given their expected improvement and motivation, they should be able to keep within five touchdowns of the Bears.
|
09-03-15 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Diego Padres +1.5 |
|
7-10 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 43 m |
Show
|
The Dodgers are in letdown mode after sweeping the Giants in a pivotal series. LA is far less dangerous when Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke aren't pitching. The Dodgers drop all the way down to Matt Latos here. He's their least effective starter. Latos hasn't been able to reach the sixth inning during his past three starts. The Dodgers have a weak bridge to closer Kenley Jansen.
The Padres have youngster Colin Rea pitching. He's been good and bad. But the Dodgers' offense can't be trusted to score a lot of runs, especially in the premier pitching park in the majors. The Dodgers have scored only nine runs in their last four games.
Only once in their last 21 games have the Dodgers scored more than five runs.
|
09-03-15 |
TCU v. Minnesota +17 |
Top |
23-17 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 2 m |
Show
|
Minnesota is not the pushover the oddsmaker and marketplace think it is. Not under Jerry Kill and his long time assistant staff. The Gophers have played in bowl games each of the last three seasons, including a New Year's Day Bowl game last season. Minnesota has covered nine of the last 13 it has been a 'dog under Kill. One of those non-covers occurred last season at TCU when the Gophers lost 30-7 as 18-point 'dogs. Minnesota had a cluster injury problem in its offensive line in that game and committed five turnovers. Now the Gophers are healthy and quarterback Mitch Leidner is more settled down being a junior with 16 starts behind him. TCU may very well be overrated by the linesmaker and public. A very good team, yes. A top four team ... no. Among their road games last season for the Horned Frogs was a one-point win against West Virginia, which went 7-6 in 2014, and a four-point victory against Kansas, which went just 3-9. If you discount that loss to TCU last year, the Gophers have covered seven in a row as double-digit underdogs the past two seasons. No, I'm not expecting an outright upset. But I do see the Gophers living up to their feisty underdog reputation at home in a revenge spot taking what I believe is an inflated number.
|
09-03-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals -1.5 |
Top |
7-15 |
Win
|
107 |
19 h 53 m |
Show
|
The Royals are extremely tough at home and the Tigers have almost become an auto fade these days. Of course the oddsmaker knows this and that's why he's made this line so high. But to get around that it's safe to lay 1 1/2 runs with the Royals in this huge mismatch. Detroit is 2-10 in its last 12 games with nine of those 10 defeats coming by more than one run. The Tigers' last three losses have been by a combined 32 runs! Don't look for rookie Matt Boyd to get Detroit back on track. The overmatched Boyd is 1-5 with a 7.12 ERA. Boyd has given up six homers during his last three starts. The Royals are going with right-hander Edison Volquez, who usually is at his best against bad teams. Kansas City is 10-2 in Volquez's last 12 starts versus under .500 opponents. The Tigers also have dropped seven of their last eight when facing a righty.
|
08-29-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Green Bay Packers |
Top |
39-26 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 9 m |
Show
|
The Eagles are unbeaten in preseason. They've beaten the Colts by 26 points and Ravens by 23 points.
Now the Eagles can bury another disinterested playoff team from last year, the Packers.
Green Bay just lost Jordy Nelson. The Packers are going to be missing three starting offensive linemen. That likely means they aren't going to risk Aaron Rodgers.
The Eagles have a great offensive system in place. The Packers are not going to bother game-planning for it.
Green Bay backup quarterback Scott Tolzien is out leaving untested and not ready for prime time rookie Bett Hundley and Matt Blanchard, who is terrible, to play quarterback for the Packers. Green Bay won't be able to trade points with the Eagles.
|
08-29-15 |
Calgary Stampeders v. Winnipeg Bombers +5 |
Top |
36-8 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 15 m |
Show
|
Calgary leads the CFL's Western Division with a 6-2 mark. But the Stampeders have won only one game by more than five points with four of their victories coming by three points or less. Calgary wins, but doesn't cover spreads. The Stampeders have covered only one of their last nine games. They are 0-5-1 ATS versus foes with a losing record. One of those non-covers for Calgary occurred last month when it just nipped Winnipeg, 26-25, as 7 1/2-point favorites. Winnipeg has a new quarterback, Robert Marve. He made his first start in replacing injured Drew Willy two weeks ago and completed 18 of 29 passes for 203 yards with a touchdown and interception in a 27-20 loss to Toronto. The Blue Bombers haven't played since giving Marve an extra week to practice and prepare. That's huge. Calgary is on the road a second straight week and has a much bigger game on deck when it hosts Edmonton, it's main challenger in the West Division. The Stampeders could be without defensive end Charleston Hughes, who has been bothered by a bad back. It would hurt Winnipeg's pass rush if Hughes can't play. Not only do the Blue Bombers have extra preparation time, but they picked up former Stampeders special teams and defensive player, Jasper Simmons. He won't play against Calgary because he doesn't know Winnipeg's system yet, but he can aid in the preparation knowing the Stampeders.
|
08-28-15 |
Detroit Lions v. Jacksonville Jaguars -1 |
Top |
22-17 |
Loss |
-120 |
45 h 19 m |
Show
|
Motivation is a big key during preseason. The Jaguars have it for this matchup. The Lions don't. Lions coach Jim Caldwell has lost 12 of 18 preseason games. Winning meaningless exhibition games isn't a priority for him. Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 passes in Detroit's first two preseason games. I doubt he plays for too long, especially with the Lions breaking in a new right guard. Calvin Johnson isn't expected to play. This is Jacksonville's final preseason home contest. The game is being televised nationally by CBS. Jaguars coach Gus Bradley and Jacksonville management has different priorities than the Lions. They want to build up sagging fan interest and gain needed confidence. Bradley hasn't pulled Blake Bortles until late in the second quarter. Bradley is likely to use Bortles and his starters well into the second half in order to prepare for the season and appease the home fans while trying to look good on national TV. Jacksonville's offense and defense has played well at times during preseason. The Lions obviously are the better team, but they don't have great depth and lack the home team's motivation. Bortles is much better than Detroit's backup quarterbacks.
|
08-20-15 |
Washington Nationals -1.5 v. Colorado Rockies |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
19 h 6 m |
Show
|
The Nationals are getting well and their confidence up against the Rockies, losers of eight of their last nine games. Every one of the Rockies' losses during this span have been by at least two runs. Washington has won the first two games of this series by an average of six runs and now has its best pitcher going, Max Scherzer. The Nationals are 8-3 the past 11 times Scherzer has been a road favorite. Scherzer's road ERA this season is 2.41. The Rockies are going with a bottom of rotation guy, Yohan Flande, who has a 4.19 ERA and owns a 5.87 lifetime ERA against the Nationals in three starts. Colorado may have the worst bullpen in the majors and Flande hasn't thrown more than 87 pitches in a game all season. Colorado is 2-9 the last 11 times Flande has been an underdog. The Nationals' last five victories have been by an average of 5.4 runs. Simply put, this is a kill spot for the Nationals.
|