Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-24-18 | Troy +10.5 v. Appalachian State | 10-21 | Loss | -109 | 45 h 19 m | Show | |
Troy can hang in with defense. The Trojans have covered in 19 of their last 26 road games and are 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 Sun Belt Conference games. This a showdown matchup to decide the East half of the Sun Belt. Troy hasn't lost in Sun Belt play this season winning all seven games. The Trojans give up only 21.2 points a game. The teams last met two seasons ago and none of the games were decided by more than four points. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +13 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 20 m | Show |
At 4-6, the Falcons are on life support. They are in must-win mode while the Saints are on cruise control. Normally the home team has a huge edge on Thursday games. But the Falcons are familiar with their division rival and this isn't a long trip. The Saints nipped the Falcons, 43-37, in overtime back in Week 3. I see the same back-and-forth type offensive fireworks in the rematch. Drew Brees is having another brilliant season, but so is Matt Ryan, who threw for five touchdowns in the first meeting. As geat as the Saints have been this season, they are 0-4 ATS the past two yers when laying nine or more points.
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11-20-18 | Nets v. Heat -3 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
I don't understand this line. Miami should have opened a much higher home favorite. True the Heat aren't playing well. They are a disappointing 6-10 and have lost five of their last six. But the Nets are 7-10 and have lost four of their last five. Brooklyn just recently lost its best player, Caris LeVert. The teams met just six days ago in Brooklyn. The Heat were a two-point road favorite. Now they open only a three-point home favorite. The Heat won that game,. 120-107. Miami is a frustrated team capable of much better. The Heat have the two best players on the court, Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside. The Nets aren't capable of better. They are not a playoff caliber team. They aren't playing defense either giving up 120 or more points in three of their last four games. |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -125 | 131 h 40 m | Show |
Coming off their bye, the Vikings have gotten healthier on defense and their defense is coming on ranking in the top-five during their past four games. Minnesota is close to full strength now and has Dalvin Cook back to provide a home run threat on offense, which it was lacking before. Cook's dangerous presence can mitigate the Bears' pass rush because of his value as a receiving back. Kirk Cousins rates a strong edge on Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears also are unstable at kicker with Cody Parkey missing four kicks last Sunday, including two extra points. The Vikings took care of their kicking issues by signing highly accurate and reliable Dan Bailey. |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | 7-48 | Loss | -120 | 87 h 57 m | Show | |
The Eagles can hang with the Saints. Philadelphia's losses this season have come by an average of 4.4 points. Only once in their last 31 games have the Eagles lost by more than seven points. This is a pivotal game for the Eagles, trailing the Redskins by two games in the NFC East Division. The Saints, on the other hand, are fat and happy sitting at 8-1. Drew Brees is having another outstanding season, but Carson Wentz can hang with him. Wentz is back healthy. He's thrown two or more touchdowns in his last six games. The Eagles' offense is improved with the addition of Golden Tate and their defense is better than New Orleans. The Saints rank 24th defensively in points allowed and yards given up. New Orleans also suffered a key injury last week losing offensive let tackle Terron Armstead to a shoulder injury.
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11-18-18 | Broncos v. Chargers -7 | 23-22 | Loss | -105 | 126 h 27 m | Show | |
The Chargers have been playing extremely well. They are a bit below the radar considering they are 16-5 SU, 13-8 ATS in their last 21 games. They are 7-1 in their last eight games at their temporary home at StubHub Center. Philip Rivers quietly has put together an MVP-caliber season with the third-highest passer rating in the league at 115.4 and a 21-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. One of the trademarks of the Broncos under Vance Joseph is their horrendous road record. Denver is 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS under Joseph in away games. Case Keenum has had problems on the road. He has been sacked 14 times and turned the ball over eight times in Denver's four away matchups this season.
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11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals -4.5 | 23-21 | Loss | -114 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
The Raiders are introducing a new thing to the NFL, something bottom feeders in the NBA have been doing for a long time: Tanking. Oakland can get away with this because its coach, Jon Gruden, is armed with a 10-year contract and enormous power. It's actually in the best interest of the Raiders to do their best to secure the No. 1 overall draft pick and set themselves up for down the road when they move to Las Vegas to start over because they sure aren't doing anything this season. The Raiders are historically bad. How bad? They have lost five straight games by two touchdowns or more. If they lose by a two-touchdown margin to the Cardinals they will tie the longest streak for those type of losses since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. The flip side of this is the Cardinals are a play-on team against this opponent. The Cardinals' offense has improved since Byron Leftwich became the offensive coordinator a couple of weeks ago. Josh Rosen is flashing now and David Johnson looks like the stud back of two years ago with the Cardinals doing a better job of getting him in space and making sure he gets a lot of touches. The Raiders rank 30th in run defense and give up the third-most points per game in the NFL at 30.2. The Raiders can't protect Derek Carr, who has become nothing more than a dink-and-dunk passer lacking playmakers. The Cardinals rank sixth in sacks. They should dominate a porous Oakland offensive line. Chandler Jones is a premier pass rusher. The Cardinals can be counted on for a good effort. They want to deliver their home fans a strong showing. The Raiders can't even be relied upon to try these days espcially in a non-conference matchup.
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11-17-18 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State +7 | Top | 6-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
Kansas State is a must-win mode if it wants to make it nine straight years of going to a bowl game. The Wildcats have a strong history of covering as a 'dog under Bill Snyder and they surely won't lack motivation here with speculation this could be Snyder's final home game. He could be retiring after 27 years of coaching. So this is going to be an emotional setting at Bill Snyder Family Memorial Stadium. Kansas State has lost three games by a combined nine points. The Wildcats have the superior rushing attack - led by Alex Barnes one the best running backs in the country - and better defense. Texas Tech has been regressing. The Red Raiders have lost three in a row. They are likely not to have injured quarterback Alan Bowman available. He's recovering from a lung injury. Kansas State has won the last three in the series, including winning 42-35 at Texas Tech last season.
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11-17-18 | Wisconsin +4 v. Purdue | 47-44 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
This has been a disappointing season for Wisconsin. But the Badgers shouldn't be a road 'dog against Purdue. Wisconsin has beaten Purdue 12 straight times, including the past seven at Purdue. The Badgers have lost to strong competition. They might not have their starting quarterback, Alex Hornibrook, back either. He's questionable with a concussion. But Wisconsin wins behind star running back Jonathan Taylor and one of the top offensive lines in the country. Taylor leads the nation in rushing with 1,548 yards. The Boilermakers peaked when they upset Ohio State. They have lost two of their past three games losing by 10 to Michigan State and by 31 to Minnesota. Their lone win during the past three games came by two points at home against Iowa. The Boilermakers may be distracted by frequent coaching rumors surrounding Jeff Brohm their head coach. Wisconsin has covered 12 of its last 16 road games.
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11-17-18 | Virginia +5 v. Georgia Tech | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
Even though this is a division game it's kind of a sandwich spot for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a huge win against Miami and are at hated in-state rival Georgia next week. Virginia is playing well winning four of its last five games. The Cavaliers had a much easier game than Georgia Tech last week dispatching Liberty, 45-24. Unlike Georgia Tech, Virginia has a balanced attack. Cavaliers QB Bryce Perkins is No. 1 in the ACC in points accounting for 26 TD's. The Yellow Jackets have a below average defense giving up 27.5 points per game. The Cavaliers know how to defend Georgia Tech's unique option offense thanks to head coach Bronco Mendenhall. His teams are 9-2 SU and ATS when facing triple-option opponents.
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11-16-18 | Bulls +14.5 v. Bucks | 104-123 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
You might be interested to know that the highest-scoring player on the court in this game belongs to the Bulls in Zach LaVine. But that's not why I like the Bulls to cover this game. This is a rare nationally televised appearance for the Bulls. They are coming off an embarrassing 111-82 road loss to the Celtics on Wednesday. Chicago gets up for this division rivalry moreso than the Bucks do. So I envision a focused and big effort coming from the Bulls. The Bulls have covered in four of their last five visits to Milwaukee, including the past three. Before the Boston massacre, the Bulls were playing solid defense holding four of their past five foes to 103 points or fewer.
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +8.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -102 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
SMU has come on be tied for first in the AAC West Conference. Mustangs QB Ben Hicks is having a nice season with 1,919 yards and 16 TD passes of which 10 have come during the past four games. The Mustangs have a deep crop of running backs, too. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and lacks the defense to cover this big of a road number. The Tigers' record has been fattened up by the weak foes they have played such as Mercer, Georgia State, South Alabama, UConn, East Carolina and Tulsa.
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11-15-18 | Spurs +5.5 v. Clippers | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
Perhaps it's a leap of faith, but I see the Spurs showing up in a big way. San Antonio is in full circle the wagons mode having lost four of its last five games. The Spurs were just embarrassed on the road Wednesday getting blown out by the Suns, 116-96. Good teams beat the Suns by 20 points not the other way around. I don't see Gregg Popovich letting his team get humiliated a second straight night especially with this game being televised nationally on TNT. There is no valid excuse for any team losing by 20 points to the Suns - and that includes the Washington Generals. But the Spurs did rest Rudy Gay and Pau Gasol was out. It's a plus if Gasol is able to play. I will take LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan and Gay against the Clippers' top three players. The Clippers are fat and happy by contrast compared to the Spurs. LA is off overtime victories against the Bucks and Warriors. The Clippers have played their past four games without their two best defenders, Avery Bradley and Luc Mbah a Moute. During this span, the Clippers rank 22nd in points given up per 100 possessions. Before those two injuries, the Clippers were fifth in that important defensive category. There's a due factor waiting to kick in against the Clippers - and I say it comes here.
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11-13-18 | Hornets v. Cavs +8.5 | 89-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
It seems almost unfair given how bad they are without LeBron James. But the Cavaliers have been one of the hardest hit team by injuries so far this NBA season. Still, I expect the Cavaliers to give an all-out effort here and keep this game close. Cleveland was embarrassed by Charlotte, 126-94, just 10 days ago. That was at Charlotte. Now the Cavaliers get quick revenge. They have beaten the Hornets the past seven times at home although that was with James. Still, it could be a mental barrier against the Hornets. Charlotte is in action for the third time in five days. The Hornets lost in overtime to the 76ers and then beat the Pistons, 113-103, as 2 1/2-point road chalk. I see this as a flat spot for the Hornets, who while certainly a level higher than Cleveland, are not the type of dominant team that can cover huge spreads on the road. The Cavaliers have veterans. They are not happy with only one win this season. Cleveland has played better of late. Since getting blown out by Charlotte, Cleveland lost by two points on the road to Orlando and by one point on the road to the Bulls in their last game this past Saturday.
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan -7.5 v. Ball State | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
Back in Week 2, Ball State hung in against Notre Dame losing, 24-16. Since then, though, things have gone way downhill for the Cardinals. They are 2-6 since that close loss and out of conference and bowl contention. Their starting quarterback, Riley Neal, is out with a knee injury and their top running back, James Gilbert, has been demoted to second team after missing last week's game with a back injury. Ball State has gotten blasted in its last two games losing, 52-14 to Ohio and 45-13 to Toledo. The Cardinals have two games left and their coaching staff has made it known they are going to be looking at younger players. There are inexperienced players in the secondary and in the offensive line. Western Michigan needs this game to keep its MAC West Division title hopes alive and also secure a bowl bid. The Broncos buried the Cardinals, 55-3, last season. The Broncos are treating this as their most important game of the season.
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11-12-18 | Giants +3.5 v. 49ers | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Now that there is film on Nick Mullens, I don't see him performing like he did last Thursday when he sparked the 49ers to an easy win against the Raiders. He is a limited player with flaws. That nationally televised game has caused this line to be inflated. The Giants are better than the Raiders and aren't tanking. This nationally televised game is a chance to give them some redemption. I expect an all out effort from the Giants. Eli Manning actually can have a good game facing such a beat-up and vulnerable secondary. The Giants have by far the two best skilled position players in Saquan Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. |
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11-12-18 | Jazz -3 v. Grizzlies | Top | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The Jazz already have double revenge against the Grizzlies. They are 0-2 versus Memphis this season with both losses occurring in Salt Lake City. Utah was missing Donovan Mitchell in one those losses. Mitchell is healthy now and the Jazz are playing better. The Grizzlies are improved this season. But they are not in Utah's class. The Grizzlies have fed on a bunch of bad teams at home beating the Hawks, Suns and Wizards. Memphis is coming off a 112-106 home overtime victory against the 76ers. The Grizzlies caught the 76ers in the second of back-to-back games following Philadelphia's home overtime win against the Hornets. The 76ers ran out of gas in that game.
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11-11-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -3 | 121-114 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
The Bucks and Nuggets have been two of the hottest teams in the NBA each opening 9-3. The timing and spot, though, favor the Nuggets here. Denver catches Milwaukee at the conclusion of a four-game, six-day road swing. Making this fatigue rating higher for the Bucks is they lost 128-126 in overtime to the Clippers on Saturday falling on a Lou Williams basket with 0.3 seconds left. The Bucks exerted a lot of energy both physical and emotional into that game coming from 15 points down. The Nuggets should be fired-up and ready after they were upset by the lowly Nets, 112-110, at home on Friday. Denver was 6-0 at Pepsi Center until that shocking loss. Denver has defeated Milwaukee eight consecutive times at home. The Bucks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games going back to last season. |
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11-11-18 | Saints v. Bengals +6 | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 42 m | Show | |
The Saints are a very good team. That's evident by them winning their last seven games. But they are not some dominant powerhouse and they are facing a very difficult situation in this matchup. Cincinnati is home and rested having just had their bye. The Saints are coming off their most impressive victory of the season, a home win against the previously unbeaten Rams. Up next for the Saints is a home game against the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. This is a huge flat spot for them against a nonconference opponent on what is an off-surface for them being outdoors. The Bengals have a good history in these instances being 9-2 ATS at home versus above .500 road foes. If you recall their two games before the Rams, the Saints were lucky to win both. They got past the Ravens when Baltimore missed an extra point that would have forced overtime and took advantage of two crucial turnovers to beat the Vikings despite being outgained by 150 yards. The Saints also were fortunte to nip the Browns on a late field goal, 21-18. The Browns could have forced overtime by making a 52-yard field goal at the end of regulation. Oh, yes, the Saints' lone loss came to Tampa Bay. The Browns and Buccaneers are a combined 5-11. Cincinnati won't have its star wideout, A.J. Green. But the Bengals have other weapons, including breakout star wide receiver Tyler Boyd. Andy Dalton is on pace for a career-high in TD passes and the Bengals entered their bye week ranked first in red zone percentage touchdowns.
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11-11-18 | Lions +7.5 v. Bears | 22-34 | Loss | -135 | 35 h 39 m | Show | |
Sitting two games behind the Bears and Vikings in the NFC North Division, the Lions desperately need to win this game. They should play with a strong sense of urgency. So the effort should be there. I like getting this many points in this division rivalry. The Lions have owned the Bears beating them nine of the last 10 times, including the past three. Chicago is much improved this season. But the Lions have the superior quarterback. That's huge. The Bears rely first on their ground attack. Detroit's ranks 30th in run defense. The Lions, however, have improved their rush defense after trading for defensive lineman Damon Harrison. If you discount a 70-yard run by Dalvin Cook, the Lions would have held the Vikings to 58 yards rushing on 22 carries for a 2.6 yard average last Sunday. This line is inflated because Matthew Stafford was sacked 10 times in the Lions' 24-9 road loss to the Vikings. That sack figure is an outlier, though, as in their previous seven games the Lions allowed just 13 sacks, an average of fewer than two per game. Line value, quarterback, history and sense of urgency are all on the Lions' side here.
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11-10-18 | Nets v. Warriors -7 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Even without injured Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, Golden State is strong enough to dispatch the Nets by double-digits at home especially given the circumstances. The Warriors are far the superior team and probably have the best bench in the league. The Warriors are in bounce back mode after their eight-game win streak was snapped by the Bucks on Thursday in an embarrassing 23-point home loss. The Nets are off a dramatic 112-110 road win against the Nuggets last night, winning when Caris LeVert hit a shot with 0.3 seconds left. The Nets can be a pesky 'dog on the road - but not when a vastly better foe takes them serious. That will be the case here.
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 10 m | Show |
Stop Georgia Tech on the ground and you beat the Yellow Jackets. Miami has done that in each of the last three seasons beating Georgia Tech three times in a row. The Hurricanes have a tremendous trio of three-year starting linebackers in Zach McCloud, Michael Pinckney and Shaq Quarterman. They've helped the Hurricanes rank No. 1 in the nation in tackles for losses, being No. 2 in total defense and 19th in scoring defense giving up 19.3 points per game. The last time Georgia Tech faced a defense this good was in Week 4 when it lost 49-21 to Clemson. No, Miami isn't nearly as good as Clemson. But the Hurricanes are good where it counts against this opponent, who they have owned the last three seasons. Georgia Tech has no choice but to run the ball. They are a one-dimensional option offense. Hurricanes coach Mark Richt knows Georgia Tech's offense well from his days coaching at Georgia. The key for Miami is getting good enough quarterback play. That should happen with the decision to go with N'Kosi Perry as the starter this week. He's more talented than Malik Rosier.
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11-10-18 | Michigan v. Rutgers +39.5 | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 40 h 30 m | Show | |
Michigan just got through beating Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin, all of whom were ranked teams at the time they played Michigan. The Wolverine are going to be hard-pressed to take Rutgers seriously. I envision a flat effort by the Wolverines - and I couldn't blame them. The Wolverines are 0-7 ATS the past seven times they've been on the road playing a foe with a losing home mark. Bottom line: Too many points for Michigan to lay.
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11-10-18 | Washington State -6 v. Colorado | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 38 h 29 m | Show | |
Washington State has won five in a row and has the best spread mark in the country at 8-1 ATS. Colorado is going in the opposite direction with four straight losses. The Buffaloes have lost by 11, 14, 7 and 8 points in their last four games. Their defense is wearing down giving up 83 points and 1,025 yards in the last two games. Colorado has skill position injuries. The Buffs aren't going to be able to keep up with Washington State's high-powered attack. Cougars QB Gardner Minshaw leads the nation in passing yards per game and completions. He has three outsanding wide receiving targets and a versatile running back in James Williams. Colorado can't match that.
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11-10-18 | Ohio State -3.5 v. Michigan State | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 46 h 28 m | Show | |
I certainly respect Michigan State's defense. But it is going to wear down against Ohio State's offense. There's a monster gap between Ohio State's skill position players - quarterback Dwayne Haskins, running back J.K. Dobbins and wide receivers Parris Campbell and K.J. Hill - and Michigan State's backfield personnel especially with the Spartans having ineffective Brian Lewerke at quarterback. The Buckeyes won't lack motivation either still in the national title picture. They stomped the Spartans, 48-3, last season.
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11-09-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
Fresno State has the best defense in the Mountain West Conference. That's helped make the Bulldogs a road favorite here. But that should come with a disclaimer: The Bulldogs haven't faced a decent quarterback or offense. Now they draw the Broncos and Brett Rypien, who is on the verge of becoming the Mountain West's all-time passing yardage leader. Boise State ranks 21st in points per game and 22nd in yards per game. Fresno State hasn't won during its last nine tries at Boise State. The teams last met at Boise State in last season's Mountain West title game. The Broncos were 10-point home favorites - a swing of nearly two touchdowns from the line on this game - and defeated the Bulldogs, 17-14. Fresno State is good. But so is Boise State. The Broncos are just 5-15 ATS at home. But they haven't been a home 'dog before. And they shouldn't be here.
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11-09-18 | Hornets v. 76ers -5.5 | 132-133 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
The 76ers are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS at home. This is their lone home game during a six-game span. So Philadelphia should not lack motivation. They draw Charlotte in a fat and happy mood. The Hornets just posted home victories - against the lowly Cavaliers and Hawks. This is the Hornets' first road game since Oct. 27, when they lost 105-103 to the 76ers. Philadelphia nipped the Hornets. This return matchup should not be as close. The 76ers shot just 38.5 percent from the field in that victory. Dario Saric, a key and underrated player for the 76ers, has elevated his game since then after a slow start. The Hornets may be minus their best defensive player, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. He's questionable with a finger injury. The 76ers have played a tough early schedule. Their won/lost record is skewed by road losses to the three best teams in the Eastern Conference right now - Raptors, Bucks and Celtics. The 76ers are coming off a confidence-building 100-94 road win against the Pacers in which Saric had his best performance of the season. Philadelphia has defeated Charlotte seven times in a row, including the past four at home.
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 80 h 57 m | Show |
The Steelers are playing their finest ball winning and covering their last four games. Carolina is at a severe disadvantage being the visitor for this Thursday game. The Panthers have a below average passing statistics. They are vulnerable to Ben Roethlisberger, who has a strong history of playing much better at home. James Connor has more than filled in well for holdout Le'Veon Bell providing the Steelers with a balanced attack. The Panthers lack the Steelers' strong downfield passing game. Pittsburgh ranks tied for third in the AFC in sacks. Cam Newton is not an accurate passer and will be under a heavy pass rush.
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11-07-18 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4 | Top | 87-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The last time the Nuggets blasted out of the blocks this well was 1976. They are 9-1. But this is a spot to step in against them. Memphis is 3-0 SU and ATS at home. All of its home victories are by 12 or more points. The Grizzlies have covered in their last six home games going back to last season. FedEx Forum is a strong home-court for Memphis. The Grizzlies are in stop-the-pain mode after losing the final two games of their road trip with the last occurring to the Warriors two days ago. Memphis is much improved from last season with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley healthy and having a deeper bench. Denver is in a letdown spot after a huge home victory against the Celtics on Monday. The Nuggets are not that strong away from Pepsi Center going 1-2 ATS during their past three away matchups. Denver also has bad recent track record versus Southwest Division foes going 0-6 ATS against them.
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11-06-18 | Nets v. Suns +1 | Top | 104-82 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
Can the Suns win two in a row? Yes. Phoenix is a different team when Devin Booker is healthy like he is now. The Suns upset the Grizzlies at home this past Sunday. It was Booker's second game back after he missed three games with a hamstring injury. That win halted a seven-game Phoenix losing streak and has given the Suns confidence. Booker was the key. He is one of the best players in the league although he doesn't get a lot of publicity. Phoenix will have the two best players on the court in Booker and rookie Deandre Ayton when they host Brooklyn Tuesday. The Nets are 1-4 on the road. Their lone away win was against the Cavaliers, who have the worst record in the NBA at 1-9. The Nets last were on the road eight days ago when they were blasted by the Knicks, 115-96.
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11-04-18 | Grizzlies v. Suns +4 | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Phoenix has lost seven in a row since beating Dallas by 21 points in its opener. So I understand a reluctance to back the Suns. But Memphis is vulnerable here and the Suns are dangerous at home with Devin Booker back for his second game after being out three games with a hamstring injury. The Suns were competitive with Booker's return to the lineup in a 107-98 home loss to the Raptors Friday. The Raptors are far superior to the Grizzlies. Memphis is 0-2 on the road in games not against the Jazz. The Grizzlies lost by five points to the Kings in Sacramento and were buried by 28 points to the Pacers in Indiana. Memphis averages 94.2 points in four road matchups. The Grizzlies are coming off a highly-satisfying 110-100 away victory against the Jazz on Friday. Memphis has a road game against the Warriors on deck Monday. The Grizzlies are likely to look past the Suns, who they destroyed, 117-96, at home on Oct. 27. The Grizzlies shot 55.7 percent from the floor in that win. Booker did not play in that game. Memphis ranks 20th in field goal percentage at 44.5 percent. They are not likely to repeat that earlier shooting performance against the Suns. The Suns are a far better team with a healthy Booker. He is their key being their leading scorer at 25.8 points and ball distributor. Phoenix has a much improved roster. No. 1 overall draft choice Deandre Ayton is living up to expectations and Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson are reliable veterans who help balance the Suns' promising youth. This is early season revenge for the Suns and a stop-the-pain game for them. They will be the more motivated team and they are better than their record now that Booker is healthy.
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11-04-18 | Steelers +3 v. Ravens | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
These teams are heading in different directions. Pittsburgh is coming on winning its past three games, all by seven or more points. The Steelers are averaging 34 points in their last three games. James Conner has made everyone not miss Le'Veon Bell. Pittsburgh's defense has improved, too, holding foes to 18.3 points in the last three games. Baltimore, by contrast, has dropped three of its last four. Joe Flacco has regressed to where he was last season - terrible. The Ravens also have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line with both of their starting tackles out. Losing left tackle Ronnie Stanley is a huge below-the-radar injury. It means Jermaine Eluemunor will be making his first NFL start. The Steelers' pass rush has come on to rank seventh in sack ratio and second in quarterback hits. Flacco, more than most quarterbacks, gets rattled under pressure. The Steelers have a monster skill posiiton edge with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Conner. This is one of the most fierce rivalries in the NFL. The Steelers have short revenge for a home loss to the Ravens five weeks ago. The Steelers are the fresher team having had their bye just two weeks ago. Baltimore doesn't get its bye until after this game.
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11-04-18 | Falcons +2.5 v. Redskins | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
I've been looking to fade the Redskins - and this is the spot to do it. Washington has won three in a row. The Redskins don't have a good history, though, under Jay Gruden of following a win with a good performance being 4-10 ATS after winning in their previous game. The Redskins are an average team at best with a below average quarterback in Alex Smith. Washington's style is run the ball with Adrian Peterson and play stout run defense. The Falcons are not a good opponent for that style to work. Matt Ryan is having a strong season. He's riding a 13-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games. He has thrown for more than 350 yards in four of those five games. Ryan rates a huge edge on Smith, who rarely completes downfield passes. Ryan challenges secondaries. Smith doesn't. The Falcons are off a bye. They've had ample weeks to patch up their battered defense. The Redskins lack the dynamic offense to take advantage. Washington also will be without its best offensive lineman with left tackle Trent Williams out following surgery on his thumb.
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11-03-18 | Louisiana Tech +23.5 v. Mississippi State | 3-45 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 8 m | Show | |
This is your classic sandwich spot for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are coming off a huge home win against Texas A&M and have Alabama on deck next week. So the Bulldogs aren't going to be taking this non-conference matchup too serious. Mississippi State also isn't a good team to lay big points on. The Bulldogs rank 107th in passing yards. Nick Fitzgerald is more dangerous as a runner than thrower. Louisiana Tech's top defensive strength is its pass defense. So Mississippi State is going to have to grind away on the ground, which eats a lot of clock. The Bulldogs' best runner is Kylin Hill, who is questionable after missing last week's game with a leg injury. It wouldn't be surprising if Hill sat out so he would fresh for Alabama. Louisiana Tech is well-coached under Skip Holtz. Under Holtz, Louisiana has covered seven of its last nine road games as an underdog against the power-five conference teams. Tech is 8-2 ATS versus SEC foes. The latest example occurred in Week 3 when Tech hung in and covered a 19-point road spread against LSU, a team that beat Mississippi State, 19-3, just two weeks ago.
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11-03-18 | Houston -14 v. SMU | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
Houston wins because of its high-scoring offense. The Cougars have scored 40-plu points in eight straight games. They rank first in the country in total yards and No. 2 in scoring. Houston quarterback D'eriq King has had at least two passing touchdowns and one rushing TD in every game this year. The Cougars have an excellent track record on the road going 23-10-1 (70%) in their past 34 away matchups. SMU needs to play ball-control and have a balanced offense to hang with the Cougars. But the Mustangs don't have that. They are averaging 98.6 yards on the ground, which ranks 123rd. SMU is averaging fewer than 50 yards rushing in its last three games. The Mustangs are poorly-coached - 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games - and have given up eight-non defensvie touchdowns, including four pick-six interceptions off Ben Hicks.
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11-02-18 | Knicks v. Mavs -6 | 118-106 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
The record won't show it because of a five-game losing streak, but Dallas is a much improved team. The Mavericks added a premier defensive center, DeAndre Jordan, and a star rookie point guard, Luka Doncic, to a veteran lineup that also has reliable Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews to go along with promising second-year guard Dennis Smith Jr. The Mavericks have played strong competition during their losing skid with four of the defeats coming to the Raptors, Jazz, Spurs and Lakers. Dallas lost to the Spurs in overtime and Lakers by one point during its last two games, both on the road. Now Dallas is home for only the fourth time this season. The Mavericks are not only home, but get to step way down in class, too, drawing the Knicks.
The Knicks are 1-6 in their last seven games. They are 0-3 on the road losing their past two away games by a combined 34 points to the Bucks and Heat. |
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11-02-18 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State -13.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
Western Kentucky has frustrated Middle Tennessee State for three straight years, including defeating the Blue Raiders, 41-38, last season in triple overtime. Now the table is set for the Blue Raiders to get their revenge in a big way. The Hilltoppers are a dead team done in by the disastrous coaching of Mike Sanford. They have lost nine of their last 10 games. The Hilltoppers are not bowl eligible for the first time in eight years. Middle Tennessee State senior quarterback Brent Stockstill has led the Blue Raiders to a 16-7 record since 2016 in games he has been healthy in. Yet he's 0-3 career-wise versus Western Kentucky. Stockstill is one of the better quarterbacks in Conference USA. The Blue Raiders trail Florida International by just one game in the East Division of that conference. Their offense has a good balance to it with the emergence of running back Terelle West. Western Kentucky can't keep up averaging fewer than 20 points a game. The Hilltoppers give up nearly 30 points on defense. They've allowed 40, 37 and 38 points in their last three games. They can't match the Blue Raiders on either side of the ball. Middle Tennessee State has a good history in these type situations covering six of the last seven times at home versus foes with a losing road mark.
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11-02-18 | Rockets -3 v. Nets | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
The 1-5 Rockets are on the road for the first time since Oct. 21. Good. They need to get away from Houston. The Rockets are the most disappointing team in the NBA during the first couple of weeks. This is the start of a season-high five-game road trip for the Rockets. I don't see them sinking any lower by losing to the bottom-feeding Nets especially since the Nets are off a satisfying 120-119 overtime victory against the Pistons this past Wednesday night. The Nets are a good effort team. I especially like them as a road 'dog. But they can't match the Rockets' talent even if James Harden remains out. Chris Paul, Eric Gordon and Carmelo Anthony still are better than anybody on Brooklyn. The Rockets aren't nearly as good as their franchise-record 65-win team of a season ago. But they are far better than their 1-5 record shows. Houston ranks 29th in field goal percentage and 23rd in 3-point shooting. They are due to greatly improve in those key statistical areas. Keep in mind, too, the Rockets have faced nothing but Western Conference teams - all of whom are playoff contenders. This is their first game versus an Eastern Conference opponent and a lottery one at that.
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -103 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
Jon Gruden is desperate for a victory and he has a chance to achieve that in this nationally televised Thursday night matchup. As bad as the Raiders have been, the 49ers have even a worse record. The 49ers also are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL. The Raiders have a huge quarterback edge with Derek Carr. This edge would be even greater if C.J. Beathard is a scratch because of a wrist injury. That would make second-year undrafted free agent Nick Mullens the 49ers' starting quarterback. Carr is coming off a four touchdown performance against the Cowboys and has regained his confidence. Usually it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team in the Thursday matchup. But it's different here because Oakland and San Francisco are just a little more than 12 miles apart. So travel isn't an issue for the visiting Raiders. It's the 49ers who are hurt the most by the short week because of their long injury list.
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11-01-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -3 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Milwaukee is the only remaining unbeaten team in the NBA. It's not a fluke. The Bucks have had below-the-radar talent the past couple of seasons and now they finally have the right coach in Mike Budenholzer to maximize that talent. But Boston trumps Milwaukee in terms of overall talent and bench strength. The Celtics also have the best coach in the league, Brad Stevens. The spot sets up well for Boston, too. The Bucks are coming off a huge home win against the Raptors. This marks their fourth game in six days. It is just Milwaukee's third road game of the season. The Celtics are the best team the Bucks have faced. The Celtics guard their home court well covering 17 of their last 22 home games. They have covered against the Bucks in eight of the last 10 meetings. It's an added bonus for the Celtics if superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has to miss a second consecutive game because of a concussion.
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10-31-18 | Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
I see the Pacers bouncing back from a disappointing home loss to the Trail Blazers this past Monday. The Trail Blazers are off to a fast start and they played well against Indiana. The Pacers are a much better team than the rebuilding Knicks, who are 2-5 with their victories coming against the lowly Hawks and Nets. The Pacers entered their matchup against the Trail Blazers having posted road victories against the Spurs and Cavaliers. Victor Oladipo, though, had an off-shooting night against the Trail Blazers after connecting on 17 of 27 shots from the floor against the Spurs and Cavaliers. Indiana has a strong record in bounce back situations like this going 16-5 ATS following a loss. New York is fat and happy after halting a five-game losing streak with a resounding revenge win against the Nets on Monday, 115-96.
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10-30-18 | Blazers v. Rockets -3 | Top | 104-85 | Loss | -111 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
The Rockets are off to a horrendous 1-4 start after winning an NBA-best 65 games last season. I understand the Rockets have yet to resemble anything they looked like last season and will be without injured James Harden. Still, I believe the Rockets are primed for a monster effort. They have been idle since Friday. Portland, on the other hand, played on Monday night and upset the Pacers in Indiana. This marks Portland's third game in four days. The Trail Blazers do not have great depth and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a victory. Houston has owned Portland in the past winning seven of the last eight meetings, including all four last season.
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10-30-18 | Kings v. Magic -4 | 107-99 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
Yes, laying points with Orlando is a new experience, an experience I rarely want to go through. But it's justified here. The Kings appear improved this season, but they are in a real letdown spot after upsetting the Heat in Miami Monday night for their third straight victory. However, this marks the Kings' fifth game in eight days and second in two nights. Orlando is up and down. But the Magic have the better talent with Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic are capable of good things having already defeated the Heat and Celtics while losing by only one point to the 76ers. Orlando is better coached than in previous seasons and is surrendering eight fewer points per game than the Kings, who rank 27th defensively.
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10-29-18 | Blazers v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Pacers are playing well having won their last two games - both on the road - in blowout fashion beating the Spurs, 116-96, this past Wednesday and Cavaliers, 119-107, on Saturday. Now the Pacers are home where they are 2-0 this season having destroyed the Grizzlies by 28 points and Nets by 20. Portland is better than those two teams. However, the Trail Blazers are just a borderline playoff team and they carry a fatigue rating playing their third road game in five days. Portland has failed to cover in five of its last six away matchups. They Trail Blazers have a bigger game on deck when they play the Rockets in Houston. The time to play the Pacers is now as I anticipate the line will go up. There's also an outside chance Portland's star point guard Damian Lillard could be out as he's nursing a sore right elbow. |
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10-28-18 | 49ers +1 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-18 | Loss | -109 | 127 h 40 m | Show |
There are degrees of being pathetic. The Cardinals are more pathetic than the 49ers. At least San Francisco is well-coached, plays hard all the time and doesn't have nearly the dissension and lack of confidence Arizona has. This is a huge revenge game for the 49ers. They lost to the Cardinals just three weeks ago, 28-18. The 49ers outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards, but cost themselves by committing five turnovers. C.J. Beathard is one of the better backup quarterbacks. I would take him operating behind Kyle Shanahan's sharp schemes and decent receivers, including emerging star tight end George Kittle, than rookie Josh Rosen, who has a horrible offensive line and declining skill position players. It's not a fluke the Cardianls are last in yards gained per game and last in run defense. They are the worst team in the NFC.
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -8 | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 123 h 29 m | Show | |
The Browns couldn't beat the Steelers opening week despite coming up with six takeaways. Cleveland surely isn't going to beat the Steelers now when Pittsburgh is home and rested following a bye. Cleveland is tired and demoralized having played three overtime games in the last four weeks, including last Sunday in the high heat and humidity of central Florida losing on a late field goal. The Steelers has gotten into gear. They are averaging nearly 35 points during their last two games. The Browns have surrendered at least 26 points in three of their past four games and have key defensive injuries, including one to linebacker Joe Schobert. Cleveland last won at Heinz Field in 2003. The Browns have lost 24 consecutive road games. They are 4-10-1 ATS during their past 15 away matchups. The Browns remain as poorly coached as ever under Hue Jackson.
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10-28-18 | Broncos v. Chiefs -10 | 23-30 | Loss | -109 | 122 h 42 m | Show | |
You can't stop the Chiefs. You can only hope to contain them and Denver can't do that. The Chiefs offense is clicking on all cylinders behing Andy Reid's sharp designs and second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who clearly is in the argument for MVP with eye-popping statistics such as 22 touchdown passes in seven games. The Chiefs have covered every one of their seven games. I don't expect that streak to stop here. Vance Joseph is dead man walking. He can't coach. The Broncos' defense isn't as good as perceived and their offense could be making a quarterback change soon as Case Keenum hasn't come close to repeating his magical 2017 season. Kansas City's defense is improving and is tough at home surrendering an average of only 12 points during its past two games at Arrowhead Stadium. It's an added bonus if Justin Houston and Eric Berry return this week.
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10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
Neither the Eagles nor Jaguars have played up to expectations this season. Both are coming off surprising home losses. I trust the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles far more than the Jaguars to bounce back in this London game. Carson Wentz is rounding into shape nearing upper-tier status again. He has far better weapons with Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz than the Jaguars have especially when they remain without Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville is playing its worst ball having lost three in a row. The Jaguars defense isn't as good as it was last season. They aren't getting takeaways to set up their offense. Jacksonville's offense is a total mess because it doesn't have a quality starting quarterback. The Jaguars have produced just 28 points during their last three games. Neither turnover-prone Blake Bortles, nor weak-armed, checkdown passer Cody Kessler is the answer at quarterback. The Eagles are the much more balanced team solid on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars are held hostage by their horrendous quarterback play. They don't have a quarterback on their roster who can fix the problem.
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10-27-18 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Mississippi State | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
The Aggies were idle last week, get several key injured players back and have the top run defense in the SEC to contain Mississippi State's ground attack. If the Bulldogs can't run they are in trouble because Nick Fitzgerald has passed for fewer than 100 yards in his last three games. The Bulldogs lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage of the Aggies' vulnerable secondary. Texas A&M gets back wide receiver Kendruck Rogers and right guard Keaton Sutherland from injuries. Rogers may be the Aggies' best wideout. While Texas A&M had its bye last week, the Bulldogs were suffering a 19-3 road loss to LSU. Mississippi State is 1-3 in its last four games while averaging fewer than 10 points a game during this four-game span.
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10-27-18 | Georgia -6.5 v. Florida | Top | 36-17 | Win | 100 | 44 h 1 m | Show |
Recall if you will last season after Auburn beat Georgia, 40-17. The Bulldogs came back from that beatdown to post four straight wins and covers to reach the national championship game. I see the Bulldogs bouncing back against Florida here. Georgia was idle last week after suffering its first loss of the season to LSU in its previous game. LSU kept Georgia in check that game. But the Bulldogs offense is too good to be held down a second consecutive game. Florida ranks 73rd in run defense. The Bulldogs have a stable of outstanding running backs headed by D'Andre Swift. Georgia can beat Florida on the ground, or through the air behind Jake Fromm if the Gators bring their safeties into the box. I don't see Florida's offense keeping up with a Bulldogs defense that gives up the 13th-fewest points per game at 16.3. The Bulldogs crushed the Gators, 42-7, last season.
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10-27-18 | North Carolina +9 v. Virginia | 21-31 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
Virginia is flying high posting upset victories against Miami and Duke during its past two games. North Carolina is 1-5. So this appears to be a letdown spot for the Cavaliers as it's difficult for a team to get up for three straight games especially when that team isn't dominant. Just don't be shocked if the Tar Heels pull the outright win. They are a very dangerous team now being healthy and having their suspended players back. North Carolina lost to Virginia Tech and Syracuse by three points apiece in its past two games with the loss to Syracuse coming in double overtime. The Tar Heels have covered six of their last seven ACC games and are 4-0 ATS in their past four visits to Virginia. I find Virginia to be overrated. The Cavaliers are being overvalued here with this large of a spread. Jordan Ellis, the Cavaliers' leading rusher with 619 yards, is dealing with an ankle injury. North Carolina has revenge for a 20-14 loss to Virginia last season. Before that, the Tar Heels defeated the Cavaliers seven consecutive times. North Carolina quarterback Nathan Elliott is coming on. He threw for a career-high 321 yards and two touchdowns against Syracuse last week. He has gone 161 passes without an interception. The Tar Heels always have been able to run the ball ranking third in the ACC in yards per carry at 5.1. There won't be a lack of points scored here. But North Carolina certainly will be able to keep up.
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10-26-18 | Bucks v. Wolves +1.5 | 125-95 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
It's a mistake for the Bucks to be favored in this road spot. Yes Milwaukee is 4-0. The Bucks just beat the 76ers, 123-108, at home on Wednesday. Milwaukee is fat and happy. The Timberwolves are a bit more desperate at 2-3. Now look at the spot. The Bucks have been home for the past three games. After this matchup they go back to Milwaukee to host the Magic on Saturday and the Raptors on Monday. Minnesota is 2-0 at home. The Timberwolves' losses have all come on the road to the Spurs, improved Mavericks and Raptors. Jimmy Butler has rounded into shape. The Timberwolves don't play again until Monday. They'll be going all out in this one.
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10-26-18 | Mavs +11.5 v. Raptors | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
Toronto is riding high opening 5-0. The Raptors, though, have given up triple-digits in all of their games. The Mavericks are much improved from last season with the additions of rookie point guard Luka Doncic and center DeAndre Jordan. Yet Dallas is below-the-radar. The Mavericks are sitting at 2-2. They should be 3-1, though, coming off a disgusting 111-104 road loss to the Hawks in which they blew a 26-point lead. Dallas should come out hard after blowing that game to the Hawks. There's a good chance, too, the Mavericks get Harrison Barnes for the first time this season. He's been out with a hamstring injury. Barnes is an underrated veteran who has averaged close to 20 points each of the last two seasons.
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
There is plenty of value here with Boston College being this big of an underdog when it should actually be favored. The facts are these: The Eagles are 4-0 at home and 5-2 overall. Their two losses have been to North Carolina State and Purdue. No shame in that especially since Purdue just upset Ohio State. Boston College gets back star running back AJ Dillon from an ankle injury. Look for the Eagles' offensive line and ground game to control the line of scrimmage against the Hurricanes. This is the best running attack Miami has seen all season. The warm-weathered Hurricanes will be playing in low 40-degree weather. They are are 1-4 in their last five road games and going up against an emotionally-charged Boston College and atmosphere. The game is being called "Red Bandanna/Service Day Game" to honor Welles Crowther, who was a former BC lacrosse player who saved the lives of several people during the 9-11 attacks before perishing. Miami is going to have to contend with this road setting while still trying to get its quarterback situation settled. Malik Rosier is going to get the start after N'Kosi Perry's poor play in the Hurricanes' last game, a 16-13 road loss to Virginia. Rosier isn't a very good passer either. He's completing just 52 percent of his throws.
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10-24-18 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Now that the Golden Knights have settled in back home they are playing much better. Las Vegas had to go on a brutal five-game road trip early in the season. But the Knights have been back in Las Vegas for its past two games. They are riding a three-game winning streak where they have outscored their foes, 8-2. The Knights' power play has picked up, their fourth line remains solid and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has stopped 69 of 71 shots during the win streak. Vancouver has been missing its two best scorers with Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson both out. The rookie Pettersson was really providing a spark, but is doubtful to play here as he continues to rest from a concussion. The Canucks have managed only four goals in regulation during their last three games. Vegas swept all four meetings against Vancouver last season winning each of its two home games by three goals.
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10-23-18 | Kings +11 v. Nuggets | 112-126 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Denver is off to a great start going 3-0 for its best beginning in nine years. But don't overlook the Kings. They have covered two of their three games, beat the Thunder by 11 points on the road and are averaging 125.7 points a game. The Nuggets might be a little fat and happy. They also are in a sandwich spot having just upset the defending champion Warriors and have a marquee matchup coming on Thursday against LeBron James and the Lakers. Sacramento has been below the radar on the road since last season. The Kings are 13-6 (68 percent) in their last 19 away matchups. De'Aaron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein and Buddy Hield all look like improved players. Rookie Marvin Bagley III has improved Sacramento's frontline. The Nuggets are going to be without Will Barton for around five weeks after he suffered a hip injury. Barton is arguably the Nuggets' fourth-best player.
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10-22-18 | Magic +12 v. Celtics | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
The combination of Orlando being an improved up-and-coming team upgraded by a coaching change and the Celtics trying to figure out their right rotations puts me on the Magic. There's a buzz going on in New England right now. It's not about the Celtics at this early juncture of the season. It's about the Patriots and Red Sox being back in the World Series. It is just the fourth game of the season. Brad Stevens is a master coach. But he's trying to figure out all the pieces. Remember the Celtics didn't have Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward during the playoffs. The Celtics have not looked sharp in their previous two games losing on the road to the Raptors and nipping the Knicks, 103-101, as a 9 1/2-point road favorite this past Saturday. The Magic may have their best coach of the past six years with Steve Clifford. He inherits a roster with some young emerging talent with Aaron Gordon and reliable veterans Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic were without these players for much of last season because they often were hurt. Orlando has more inside depth this season with rookie Mo Bamba. Vucevic is coming off a monster game against the 76ers where he had 27 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists. Orlando lost that game, 116-115, as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog. The Celtics' inside defense is likely to be missing big man Aaron Baynes, who has a hamstring injury. Orlando often is underrated on the road. The Magic are 13-6-1 ATS in their past 20 away matchups for 68 percent.
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10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6 | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Look for the Patrick Mahomes scorched earth policy to continue against the Bengals. Cincinnati, ranked 29th in total defense and 28th in passing defense, can't stop Mahomes and the high-flying Kansas City offense that ranks No. 2 in the NFL in scoring at 35.8 points per game. Andy Dalton can't keep up, especially on the road. Mahomes has an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Dalton has seven interceptions. The teams met during their second preseason game, which was in Cincinnati. Mahomes played for two drives and was unstoppable. He led KC to touchdowns on both drives throwing for two touchdown passes while compiling a 127.4 passer rushing.
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10-21-18 | Hawks v. Cavs -7 | 133-111 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
Not much is expected of Cleveland without LeBron James. The Cavaliers have lived up to those low expectations in their first two games going 0-2. Their losses came to the Raptors and Timberwolves - both on the road. The Cavaliers do have some prideful veterans, though, who want to prove they still can be competitive without James. So expect a strong effort from Cleveland in its home opener. The Cavaliers draw the Hawks, who just may be the worst team in the NBA. Atlanta is 0-2 suffering blowout losses to the Knicks (126-107) and to the Grizzlies (131-117). Those two teams are worse than the Raptors and Timberwolves. The Hawks committed an average of 21 1/2 turnovers in those two games and are playing for the third time in five days. There aren't going to be many times I'll be willing to lay mid-size points with the Cavaliers. This is one of those times, though.
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10-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Jets | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 0 m | Show |
Some people are scared of road favorites in the NFL. This is a prime example of why you should not be afraid. The Vikings are vastly superior to the Jets. Minnesota started the season slow, but is starting to come on. The Vikings' defense is returning to their dominant ways. They have the pass rushers to overwhelm the Jets' mediocre offensive line and the veteran secondary that can cause rookie Sam Darnold problems. Darnold will be without his favorite receiver, too, with Quincy Enunwa out with an ankle injury. Kirk Cousins is having an excellent season, Adam Thielen may be the most reliable wide receiver in the NFL. He's the only one this season who has had 100 plus receiving yards in every game. The Vikings also got their ground game last week. It could be bolstered if Dalvin Cook is ready to return. The Vikings' offensive line is improving. It can hold their own against the Jets' defensive line. The Jets are stepping up in class after having faced the Broncos and Colts. I also give a strong checkmark to the Vikings in coaching with Mike Zimmer over Todd Bowles. |
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10-21-18 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 34 m | Show |
Jacksonville still has a top-two caliber defense. The Jaguars still have their same defensive players. They just haven't been getting the huge number of takeaways and sacks they did last season. That should start to change with this matchup. DeShaun Watson isn't having the season he had last year before he got hurt. A big reason for that is he is operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Texans can't protect Watson. He's already heavily beat-up. Watson doesn't have a run game to fall back on either. The Jaguars are going to be super-fired up returning home after embarrassing road losses to the Chiefs and Cowboys. Blake Bortles didn't play well in those games. Bortles remains highly inconsistent. He won't have to win this game, though, because the Jaguars' defense will dominate. Bortles will be able to pick his spots against a weak secondary and with an underrated receiving corps. The Texans are very poorly coached. They could be 0-6 instead of 3-3. In the last three weeks, they've beaten the Colts in overtime on a bad coaching decision by Indy, nipped the Cowboys at home in overtime and were tied 13-13 with the Bills at home until getting an interception return for a touchdown against backup Nathan Peterman with 1:23 left to pull out that game. Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games. That's a clear indication about the coaching ability of Bill O'Brien.
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10-20-18 | Rockets -3 v. Lakers | 124-115 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
The Lakers aren't ready at this early juncture of the LeBron James LA era to beat the Rockets. This is just the Lakers' second game with James. They lost their opener, 128-119, to Portland. Houston is far better than the Trail Blazers. The Rockets had the best record in the NBA last season at 65-17 and return their key players, including James Harden and Chris Paul. The Rockets are in an angry mood, too, after being embarrassed in their opener. They lost 131-112 to Pelicans at home on Wednesday. The Rockets let the Pelicans shoot 53 percent from the floor and were lethargic. Expect a lot more energy from the Rockets in this nationally televised matchup. The Rockets have beaten the Lakers seven of the past nine times in LA.
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10-20-18 | Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
Kentucky is going through heady times right now ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in more than 10 years in football. This has made the Wildcats overvalued in this rivalry matchup. Kentucky is at its worst in a favorite's role failing to cover the past eight times during the last two seasons. Vanderbilt can play. Just ask Notre Dame, which is ranked higher than Kentucky. The Commodores lost to the Irish, 22-17. Vanderbilt has excellent skill position players with quarterback Kyle Shurmur, running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn and wide receiver Kalija Lipscomb. I'm not a fan of Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats rely heavily on running back Benny Snell Jr. They are a one-dimensional team that the Commodores can handle.
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10-20-18 | Oklahoma -7.5 v. TCU | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
Banged-up physically and mentally, TCU isn't going to be able to stay within double digits of Oklahoma. The teams met twice last season and Oklahoma won by 18 points and 34 points, respectively. The Horned Frogs are worse this season. If it weren't for a close win against Iowa State, TCU would be 0-4 in its last four games. TCU quarterback Shawn Robinson has been plagued by turnovers. TCU has failed to break the 17-point barrier in each of its last three games. Oklahoma is primed for a strong defensive effort being idle last week after losing to Texas two weeks ago. Oklahoma has won 19 of its last 21 Big 12 road contests and is 6-0 ATS in this spot since Lincoln Riley took over. Kyler Murray can't be held in check by TCU.
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10-19-18 | Cavs +8.5 v. Wolves | 123-131 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are anxious to prove they aren't a hopeless team without LeBron James. They have a great chance of proving that against the chemistry-challenged Timberwolves. Minnesota looked terrible in preseason giving up more than 123 points per game. The team continues to be distracted by Jimmy Butler wanting out. Butler didn't play in preseason while awaiting a trade that so far hasn't happened. Butler played for the first time in the Timberwolves' opener, a loss to the Spurs, and was noticeably rusty shooting 9-of-23 from the floor. His stamina still isn't there yet. The Cavaliers opened with a 116-104 loss to the Raptors on the road this past Wednesday. Kevin Love is being counted on to be Cleveland's No. 1 scoring option now and he was pressing missing 13 of 18 shots from the floor. He should be more settled down in this game. A plus in that loss for the Cavaliers was the play of small forward Cedi Osman, who scored 17 points and pulled down 10 rebounds.
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10-17-18 | Nuggets v. Clippers +1.5 | Top | 107-98 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
The Clippers are below the radar now that they have no stars left. But what the Clippers have going for them is a chip on their shoulder, strong perimeter defenders and more scoring in the middle. Denver has serious playoff aspirations. The Nuggets couldn't have come closer to making the playoffs last season. But the Nuggets have yet to prove they are improved defensively and can play better on the road. The Nuggets were 15-26 away from Pepsi Center and were last in defensive field goal percentage. The Clippers no longer have DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. What the Clippers do have are lockdown defenders Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley and Luc Mbah a Moute. They also have some underrated scorers in Lou Williams, Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari. LA also is going to get more scoring inside with Marcin Gortat replacing the departed Jordan, whose shooting range was about one foot.
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
The Celtics have dominated the 76ers winning 14 of the last 16 regular-season games. Philadelphia has gotten a lot better, but so has Boston. The teams met in the Eastern Conference semifinals and the Celtics won the series in five games. Boston won that series despite not having Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, both of whom are healthy now for the Celtics. Part of why the Celtics have had success against the 76ers is they have the depth and defenders to match up against Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons with Al Horford, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Aron Baynes and Marcus Morris. The 76ers have an excellent starting lineup, but they lack Boston's bench strength and rely heavily on Embiid and Simmons. The Celtics have the deepest roster in the Eastern Conference and the best coach, Brad Stevens. Philadelphia played its last two preseason games in China on Oct. 5 and Oct. 8. So you wonder if the 76ers have recovered fully from that long journey. The Celtics enter this season having covered 73 percent of their last 19 home games.
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -9.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -105 | 86 h 0 m | Show |
This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are off a bad road loss to the Lions. Green Bay is frustrated. The Packers have a bye the following week so they are going to hold nothing back in front of national TV audience at home. There will be a strong sense of urgency for the Packers in this matchup, something that has been lacking from them. They need to keep pace in the competitive NFC North Division and will not come out flat. The 49ers play hard for Kyle Shanahan, but their defense has many holes and their offense is shot without Jimmy Garoppolo and multiple injuries at running back, wide receiver and in the offensive line. The Packers have a good defensive line and their secondary is much improved. C.J. Beathard doesn't have nearly the talent to keep trading points with Aaron Rodgers. |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 148 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a monster revenge spot for the Patriots. They were stunned by the Chiefs at home opening week of last season. The Patriots won't be taken by surprise this time by the Chiefs. New England has a better defense than Kansas City. The Patriots' offense also has come around with Julian Edelman back from suspension and Josh Gordon starting to make an impact. The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. New England has covered 71 percent of its last 51 home games.
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 141 h 23 m | Show | |
At 1-4, the Falcons are playing for their season. They absolutely can not take a home loss here to the lowly Buccaneers, who when last spotted were losing 48-10 to the Bears on the road. Injuries have ruined the Falcons' defense. But they still have the offense to pile up big points, especially going against a terrible Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom-two in yards and points given up per game. Matt Ryan is playing at a high level despite the Falcons' disappointing record. He has thrown nine touchdown passes in the last three weeks with no interceptions. Devonta Freeman is back healthy and rookie Calvin Ridley has emerged to be another huge receiving threat to go with Julio Jones. Jameis Winston is back at quarterback for the Bucs. Winston doesn't have a ground attack, though, and has turned the ball over more than any other NFC quarterback during the last three years.
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10-14-18 | Steelers +2 v. Bengals | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
There is a perception that the Steelers aren't very good on the road. That's not true. Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 in its eight road matchups. The Steelers are starting to come on, too, especially their defense, which has underperformed. I'm usually attracted to the better team in an underdog role, which is the case here. Ben Roethlisberger is a far superior quarterback to Andy Dalton and he has the more potent weapons. The Bengals and Dalton have been playing above their heads. Dalton still turns the ball over. He has seven interceptions and will be without his top red zone target, tight end, Tyler Eifert, and reliable backup running back Giovanni Bernard. Emerging second-year wideout John Ross may still also be out. Pittsburgh has owned the Bengals recently winning the past six times and eight of the last nine meetings. This includes four consecutive victories at Paul Brown Stadium.
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10-14-18 | Colts +2.5 v. Jets | 34-42 | Loss | -109 | 49 h 14 m | Show | |
The Colts are getting back a number of their key injured players. The Jets are in a flat spot. Andrew Luck trumps Sam Darnold and the Jets offense. That in a nutshell is why I like the underdog Colts. Indy is in must-win mode being 1-4. The Colts have been in each game, though, and actually could be 3-2 with better circumstances. The teams last met two seasons ago and Luck lit the Jets up throwing four touchdown passes in a 41-10 victory. Luck is close to being 100 percent again throwing for 829 yards and seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. The Colts are on extra rest having played last Thursday. Star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton still is likely out, but the Colts are expected to get back from injury star linebacker Darius Leonard, Anthony Walker Jr.,who is their second-best linebacker, top running back, Marlon Mack, and offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Luck could catch a big break as the Jets' secondary could be down star cornerback Trumaine Johnson (quad injury) and cornerback Buster Skrine (concussion). The Jets are in letdown territory after their impressive 34-16 dismantling of the Broncos this past Sunday. The Jets' other victory came opening week versus the Lions. The Jets then went flat the following week losing to the Dolphins, 20-12, as three-point home favorites. Some of the Jets' attention could be focused on their defensive coordinator, Kacy Rodgers, who is fighting a serious illness and may miss a second consecutive game.
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10-14-18 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Raiders | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 12 m | Show | |
Derek Carr isn't coming through for Jon Gruden and Gruden isn't coming through for the Raiders. If it wasn't for a bizarre replay reversal that took the game away from the road Browns two weeks ago, the Raiders would be winless. They have lost by eight, 16 and 20 points in three of their four defeats. Carr has the most interceptions in the NFL with eight. The Raiders have failed to break the 21-point barrier in all but one of their last 10 games. Their defense lacks speed and playmakers ranking 30th in total yards and defensive scoring while accumulating only six sacks in five games. The Seahawks, by contrast, are showing life. They nearly dealt the Rams their first loss, losing 33-31 last Sunday. The Seahawks have gotten healthier on defense and their ground attack has become revitalized averaging 180 yards rushing the past two games. Oakland has given up at least 140 yards rushing in three of its past five games. Russell Wilson gives Seattle a monster edge at quarterback. Wilson will be highly effective in play-action now that the Seahawks have their ground attack energized. Note this game is in London. That's a factor that favors the Seahawks. Seattle is 2-3 and still has playoff hopes. So this becomes a near must-win spot. The Seahawks are motivated. The Raiders aren't likely to travel well. They are demoralized and lack confidence knowing their talent is below average. This is turning into a lost season for the 1-4 Raiders. Gruden has lost much of his coaching mystique.
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10-13-18 | Wisconsin +10 v. Michigan | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Jim Harbaugh has yet to prove he can really win a big game at Michigan. Wisconsin has lost by more than seven points only once it its last 26 road/neutral site games and that was to Alabama. So I'm taking the points. The Badgers have the better offensive line and arguably the best running back in college, Jonathan Taylor. The key is Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook. He has been a steady force and actually has a strong 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception road ratio.
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10-13-18 | Baylor +14.5 v. Texas | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
Baylor has the ability to control clock and is good enough to take advantage of this flat spot to hang in against Texas. The Longhorns have won five in a row and are coming off a dramatic upset of Oklahoma last week. That's a huge rivalry game so the Longhorns' intensity figures to be down this week. They could take Baylor lightly knowing the Bears were beaten by Oklahoma, 66-33. That's been a pattern of Texas this season playing to the level of its competition. The Longhorns failed to cover a 22-point spread against Tulsa winning by only seven points and they didn't cover against Kansas State the week before meeting Oklahoma, winning 19-14 as 8 1/2-point favorites.
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10-13-18 | Pittsburgh +22 v. Notre Dame | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh has casued Notre Dame problems in the past and is in a position to do it again. The Panthers have their confidence up after ending a two-game losing streak by defeating Syracuse, 44-37, in overtime last week. The Orange nearly had beaten Clemson the week before. The Panthers have athletes. They shouldn't be outclassed especially considering the spot Notre Dame is in. The Irish are coming off emotional victories against ranked opponents Stanford and Virginia Tech. The Irish are idle next week and also facing mid-term exams. So their focus may not be all there. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has been a disappointment for Pittsburgh. However, the Panthers have two solid runners, Quadree Ollison and Darrin Hall, to help maintain ball control. The two rushed for a combined 299 yards against Syracuse. |
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10-12-18 | Arizona +13.5 v. Utah | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
Utah was impressive in knocking off Stanford on the road last week. But that victory has made the Utes overpriced in this matchup against Arizona, which has come on to win and cover three of its last four games after opening 0-2 under its new coach, Kevin Sumlin. Sumlin attempt to turn Khalil Tate into more passer than runner has drawn a lot of attention. What has been going under the radar is Arizona's defense, which is giving up 18.3 points per game during its first three Pac-12 Conference games. Utah leads the Pac-12 in total defense and is No. 2 in scoring defense. Tate has had half the season to get comfortable as a dual threat. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes, but his rushing yards are way down. The Utes, though, still have to respect his legs along with those of J.J. Taylor, who is the third-leading rusher in the Pac-12. The Wildcats are the No. 3 rushing team in the Pac-12. They can hang with Utah. The Utes have covered only once the past five times hosting Arizona.
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10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
The Brewers have won 11 straight games. They would be 26-4 in their last 30 games if plus 1 1/2 runs. Yet they are mid-sized home underdogs because the starting pitching matchup is Clayton Kershaw versus Gio Gonzalez and there's a perception the Brewers aren't in the Dodgers class. They are. The Brewers finished four games better than the Dodgers this season. Kershaw isn't the monster in the playoffs he is during the regular season with a postseason career ERA above 4.00. It's a large sampling, too - 130 innings. Gonzalez is in excellent form and has a strong history versus the Dodgers. He's 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.87 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 15 innings. Lifetime against the Dodgers, Gonzalez is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 38 innings. The Brewers have the superior bullpen. So Gonzalez probably won't be asked to go more than five innings. He can go all out in those innings. The oddsmaker is anticipating a 4-3 type of game with this low total. So getting 1 1/2 runs should loom huge.
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10-08-18 | Edmonton +4 v. Saskatchewan | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 3 m | Show | |
Edmonton defeated Saskatchewan when they last met, 26-19, at the beginning of August. The Eskimos dealt Calgary one of its two defeats on the season. The Eskimos lost by just three points in their other game against the Stampeders. The Eskimos have the CFL's passing yards leader in Mike Reilly and the receiving yardage leader in Duke Williams. Yet Edmonto finds itself in must-win mode trailing Saskatchewan by two games in the much-tougher West Division. At first it didn't seem like Williams was going to play after he was injured. Now word is he's going to play. Edmonton is off a dreadful 30-3 home loss to the Blue Bombers. But I'm going to buy low here believing the Eskimos get the job done. I like that I have Reilly, one of the best players in the CFL, and apparently Williams, who also leads the league in touchdown catches with 10, going for me. Reilly had his string of 42 consecutive regular season starts where he accounted for a touchdown stopped in the loss to Winnipeg. I expect he'll come back strong. The Roughriders are just 3-3 in their last six home games. They are coming off two straight road wins beating Toronto and Montreal by a combined five points failing to cover in either game. Saskatchewan hasn't covered in three straight games. Edmonton is 7-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games versus West Division foes. The Eskimos also have covered in five of their last seven visits to Saskatchewan.
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10-07-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Texans | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
I consider Bill O'Brien a bottom-five coach. Anytime you have a coach that bad, especially in a favorite's role, the underdog is live. One of O'Brien's many faults is the way his team plays not to lose rather than win. This is reflected in the Texans failing to cover in eight of their last nine games. Their lone cover during this span was last Sunday when the Colts handed them the game by going for a fourth-and-four in overtime and failing to covert. The Texans also are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times when laying points in the regular season. Part of what makes O'Brien such a coaching underachiever is Houston has good talent. However, the Texans also have numerous flaws. DeShaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt have to play super games to cover up the Texans' porous offensive line, lack of a running game, poor tight end play and injury-ravaged secondary. I'm not expecting the Texans to have their No. 1 running back, Lamar Miller, either. The Cowboys aren't fancy. You know what they're going to do, which is feed Ezekiel Elliott, throw short, safe passes and rely on a well-coached defense to hang in. This is a proper game plan and should result in a close game if not an outright Dallas victory.
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10-07-18 | Cardinals +4.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 147 h 4 m | Show |
No, not without Jimmy Garoppolo can the 49ers lay this many points, especially given their battered condition. San Francisco is 1-11 in their last 12 games when Garoppolo hasn't been its starting quarterback. C.J. Beathard is back behind center with Garoppolo done for the season. The 49ers also are without tailback Jerick McKinnon and maybe their best offensive lineman as Joe Staley was injured this past Sunday. The Cardinals are 0-4, the lone remaining winless team in the NFL. They are desperate for a victory. The 49ers haven't defeated the Cardinals since Jim Harbaugh was their coach. Arizona has improved each week. The Cardinals lost at the gun, 20-17, to the Seahawks this past Sunday and were leading the Bears with under five minutes left two weeks ago before losing, 16-14. The Cardinals are far more competive with rookie Josh Rosen at quarterback rather than timid Sam Bradford. Rosen played a good game against the Seahawks in his first NFL start. He was 15-of-27 for 180 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He had completions to seven different receivers. His statistics would have looked better if not for five dropped passes. Rosen faces a 49ers defense that lacks edge pass rushers and has multiple injuries to their secondary. |
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers -4.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 52 h 27 m | Show | |
The Chargers don't get injured Joey Bosa back yet, but defensive lineman Corey Liuget returns from suspension. That's a big plus for the Chargers' defense. The Chargers' defense is better than it has shown having gone up against the Chiefs and Rams, the two best offenses in the NFL. Certainly the Chargers are going to put up big points on a very bad Raiders defense. Philip Rivers is having another big season with multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. LA is a top-10 scoring and yardage team. The Raiders rank 31st in scoring defense allowing nearly 31 points a game. Oakland is last in sacks and quarterback hits. Rivers is going to have plenty of time in the pocket to pick and choose. Making it worse for the Raiders is a fatigue factor. They wore down in Miami's humidity two weeks ago and last Sunday had to go overtime to beat the Browns at home. Baker Mayfield, making his NFL starting debut, picked the Raiders apart throwing for 295 yards and two touchdowns. That bodes well for Rivers. The Raiders were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns at home. They are a very bad team. Their defense has no playmakers with Khalil Mack gone. The Chargers beat the Raiders, 30-10, when they hosted them last season.
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10-07-18 | Packers v. Lions +1 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
Take away a miracle comeback against the Bears and the Packers would only have a win against Buffalo. The Packers were soundly whipped by a mediocre Redskins team two weeks ago when they last went on the road. Truth be told, Green Bay just isn't that good. The Packers should be taking points here not laying them, but their reputation precedes them. The Lions can take advantage of a work-in-progress Packers secondary that is starting rookie cornerback Josh Jackson and 35-year-old Tramon Williams with their trio of excellent wideouts. Kerryon Johnson has given the Lions a spark in the run game averaging more than six yards per carry during his last two games. So the Packers will have to respect the run something opponents have not had to do versus the Lions in past seasons. It's a tremendous step up for the Packers secondary and their weak-in-coverage linebackers going from Josh Allen at home to Matthew Stafford on the road inside a dome. Aaron Rodgers isn't likely to keep up. Not only is Rodgers far less than 100 percent, but Green Bay has a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Davonte Adams, Geromino Allison and Randall Cobb are all banged-up. Those are the Packers' three top wideouts. They are backed up by rookies. Cobb definitely is out. The Lions are up-and-down, but they showed what they could do at home when they upset the Patriots in their last game at Ford Field.
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10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | 14-30 | Loss | -117 | 49 h 4 m | Show | |
Many props to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on their 4-0 record. But is Kansas City going undefeated? Heck no. The Chiefs have major flaws on defense and now they are facing the best defense in the NFL after opening against three sub-par defenses in the Chargers, Steelers and 49ers. Oh, yeah, the Chiefs also are in a terrible situational spot having just won a huge Monday night national TV game against division rival Denver in which they needed a stirring comeback to pull it off coming from 10 points down in the fourth quarter. The Jaguars give up the fewest points per game, yards and passing yards. They have the offense to put up points themselves when Blake Bortles plays well. I envision Bortles playing well against a porous Chiefs defense that is especially vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks such as Bortles. The Chiefs are weak, too, on pass defense and in defending against pass-catching running backs. Leonard Fournette is out for Jacksonville. But T.J. Yeldon is a capable of replacement and a much better receiving threat than Fournette. Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole are one the most underrated receiving tandems in the NFL. The Chiefs have surrendered 20 completions of at least 20 yards, which is the worst in the NFL. This is the right spot to fade the Chiefs in a letdown spot against a foe they do not match up well against.
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10-07-18 | Wyoming v. Hawaii -3 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 86 h 8 m | Show | |
Hawaii is better than expected this season especially quarterback Cole McDonald, who has already thrown for more than 2,000 yards and has a mind-boggling 24-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wyoming is bad this season. The Cowboys aren't getting the takeways like they did last season when they led the nation with 38 and they really miss Josh Allen. The Cowboys have failed to break 20-points in their last four games. They have just six takeaways and six sacks in their five games. Hawaii has a big home field advantage. The Rainbow Warriors also have a much superior passing attack and far more team speed. Hawaii won't take Wyoming lightly either after nearly losing to 1-4 San Jose State last week.
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10-06-18 | Indiana +27 v. Ohio State | 26-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
Indiana is 4-1 and has the quarterback, running back and coaching to take advantage of a huge flat spot here for Ohio State. The Buckeyes pulled out a dramatic road victory against Penn State last week. The Buckeyes will be heavy favorites in their next three games , too, taking on Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska following this game. So a letdown definitely is in store for the Buckeyes as they return home having staved off a major challenge by the upstart Nittany Lions. Indiana has covered in six of its last seven meetings with Ohio State. Peyton Ramsey leads the Big Ten in completion percentage and Stevie Scott is the fourth leading rusher in the Big Ten. Scott averages 6.8 yards per carry.
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10-06-18 | Tulane v. Cincinnati -7 | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Unbeaten Cincinnati has designs on making the Top-25. The Bearcats are yielding the second-fewest points in the nation at 12.2 and their offense is coming on behind quarterback Desmond Rider and running back Michael Warren. I don't see visting Tulane slowing down the Bearcats. Tulane gives up nearly 30 points a game and ranks 108th in yards allowed. Cincinnati is averaging more than 600 yards of total offense during its past three games. The Green Wave have covered only of their last seven road games and are in a letdown spot after ending an 11-game losing streak to Memphis by upsetting the Tigers last week as 14 1/2-point home 'dogs.
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 80 h 49 m | Show |
The Patriots have their swagger back after rolling past previously unbeaten Miami, 38-7, this past Sunday. It was an easy victory for New England. The Colts, though, are mentally and physically gassed after playing a full overtime and losing in heartbreak fashion to the Texans, 37-34, on Sunday. Indy's defense has played better than expected, but it is below average and wearing down. The Colts defense faced 77 plays against the Eagles two weeks ago and 84 plays on Thursday. Now the Colts have to travel on a short week to New England. It's a huge disadvantage. The Patriots may not have Rob Gronkowski , but they get back Julian Edelman from suspension. Josh Gordon should be at full speed, too. Tom Brady has the weapons to pile up points against the weary Colts even if Gronk doesn't play. The Colts need a full effort to be competitive because they lack the overall talent and experience being one of the youngest teams in the league. The Colts have a new coaching staff that still is trying to figure things out. An ill-advised fourth-and-four call from their own 44-yard line with 27 seconds left in overtime failed allowing the Texans to pull out the victory in what should have finished as a tie game. That could linger mentally with the Colts. Andrew Luck is working his way back from serious shoulder injury. Most of his passes are short. Luck has no ground attack, a porous offensive line that was without both starting tackles against the Texans and isn't expected to have his best wide receiver by far, T.Y. Hilton, nor his top tight end, Jack Doyle. The Patriots are 6-0 against the Colts since Peyton Manning left Indy. They are averaging 42.3 points against the Colts during this time span. Luck doesn't have the arm, weapons and protection time to keep pace with Brady.
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09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers -3 | 26-14 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a tremendous rivalry with a history of close games. Only six times in the last 23 meetings has one team won by more than seven points. However, I'm not anticipating a close game here, clearly siding with Pittsburgh. The Steelers have won the past three get togethers with the Ravens with their average win margin being 7.3 points. Ben Roethlisberger is a top-five caliber quarterback when playing at home. He doesn't have Le'Veon Bell, but he does have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is becoming an elite receiver. The Ravens defense can't stay with these two wideouts minus still suspended Jimmy Smith. A.J. Green exploited smallish Ravens cornerback Tavon Young scoring two touchdowns off him in Week 2. Brown and Smith-Schuster can do the same. The Ravens have one of the least efficient run offenses. The Steelers entered this week tied with the Cowboys for the second-most sacks with 11. I'm not a fan of Joe Flacco especially without a ground attack and being on hostile ground against a proficient pass rush unit.
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 136 h 51 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are a surprising 3-0. The Patriots have lost two in a row both on the road against the Jaguars and Lions. When was the last time the Patriots lost three straight regular season games under Bill Belichick? Try like never. Actually it occurred - back in 2002! I want the Patriots and Tom Brady going for me after they laid an egg on national television against Detroit Sunday night in a miserable performance. So I'm locking in now believing the line will become higher toward kickoff. Miami certainly deserves credit for its fast start. Ryan Tannehill is a huge improvement on Jay Cutler. Tannehill, though, is not an elite quarterback and Miami's overall talent is well below average. The Dolphins have hosted the Titans, whose quarterback Marcus Mariota wasn't 100 percent during the game, beat the Jets on the road when New York was on a short week following a huge road upset win against the Lions on a Monday night and took care of business this past Sunday versus the winless Raiders. The Dolphins are a bogus 3-0 team in search of a loss. It will come here. The Patriots have yet to get their offense fully going. That should change against this opponent and with Josh Gordon having had two weeks with the team. Gordon will provide a much needed outside threat that will allow better spacing for Rob Gronkowski. New England should get several key injured players back on defense. The Patriots have owned Miami in Foxboro winning the past nine times there, while going 7-2 ATS. They have won and covered the past five times. The matchup, spot and history all clearly point New England.
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 63 h 43 m | Show | |
Ryan Fitzpatrick has had his moments in the sun. This won't be one of them. Not only have the Bears become an upper echelon defense with the addition of Khalil Mack, but they use a 3-4 alignment. Tampa Bay had not faced that type of defense until this past Monday when they hosted the Steelers. Fitzpatrick was under pressure on nearly half of his pass attempts. His passer rating for that game was 81.3 compared to 156.3 and 144.4 in his previous two starts. Fitzpatrick is a journeyman who doesn't have a ground game to fall back on. The Buccaneers rank 30th in rushing. I don't see Tampa Bay's offense doing much against the Bears. The spot is very bad, too, for the Buccaneers traveling on a short week after an exhausting Monday night effort when they rallied from a 30-10 deficit to lose 30-27. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in-progress, but he has an outstanding runner, Jordan Howard, and several reliable receivers, including Allen Robinson and Trey Burton. Trubisky also is operating against one of the worst defenses in the NFL and one that has a cluster injury problem in the secondary. The Buccaneers rate last in pass defense, second-to-last in yards allowed and 29th in scoring defense yielding 30.3 points a game.
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09-30-18 | Lions v. Cowboys -2.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -130 | 63 h 42 m | Show | |
The Lions are coming off a highly impressive nationally televised home win against the Patriots. I don't trust them to follow through on the road with another good performance. Dallas has one of the league's top defenses. One reason for this is coaching. I like the Dallas coaching staff to outwit talented but sometimes mistake-prone Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys have the pass rushers to bother Stafford. Dallas gives up fewer than 18 points per game and ranks third in fewest yards given up. The Cowboys defense is especially tough in the red zone, which is where the Lions can struggle. The problem for Dallas is offense. However, Ezekiel Elliott should be able to run on Detroit, which in turn will set up Dak Prescott. The Lions' linebackers are weak in coverage so Prescott should have success with his short passing style. This is an important game for the 1-2 Cowboys as two of their next three games are on the road with the home matchup during this span coming against the Jaguars. The Lions have a far bigger game on deck hosting the Packers next week.
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09-30-18 | Bills v. Packers -9 | 0-22 | Win | 100 | 63 h 41 m | Show | |
No, not two weeks in a row. Not even close. The Bills don't have nearly the talent, nor the quarterback, to pull off back-to-back monster upsets after stunning the Vikings, 27-6, last Sunday. Buffalo had a couple of things going its way when it ambushed the Vikings in the biggest upset in 23 years: a strong pass rush facing a subpar offensive line and the element of surprise. The Packers have one of the best offensive left tackles in football in David Bakhitari and right tackle Bryan Bulaga is expected to play after being bothered by a bad back. Bakhitari can handle Jerry Hughes, who was a big key for the Bills in beating the Vikings. And the Packers certainly won't be taking Buffalo lightly. Green Bay is coming off a road loss to the Redskins. The timing was bad for the Packers in that game coming off consecutive division games, the previous one being an epic overtime tie against the Vikings. The Packers are solid, have a better defense that they showed in the first half against the Redskins and Aaron Rodgers still is a top-five quarterback even at less than 100 pecent. Rodgers has healthy receivers and his best running back, Aaron Jones, is back from suspension. The Packers are in take-care-of-business mode after an embarrassing loss while the Bills and their rookie quarterback, Jared Allen, are still on Cloud 9. So the Packers aren't going to get caught sleeping like the Vikings did. If the Packers play their "A" or "B" game they will cover a double-digit spread especially if the Bills are less than sharp.
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09-29-18 | Old Dominion v. East Carolina -5 | 35-37 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 51 m | Show | |
Kudos to Old Dominion. The Monarchs stunned Virgina Tech, 49-35, as a 27 1/2-point underdog. The Hokies entered that matchup ranked 13th in the country. It was the biggest football victory in Old Dominion school history. It also causes a monster letdown spot for the Monarchs especially going on the road. Before that stunning win, the Monarchs were 0-3 with losses by 42 points to Liberty, Florida International and Charlotte. The Monarchs failed to cover any of those games. Old Dominion allows the sixth-most rushing yards in the nation and 35.8 points per game. East Carolina has played a much more difficult schedule than Old Dominion. The Pirates pulled their own major upset during their last home games, beating North Carolina, 41-19, two weeks ago. The Pirates then hung tough as a 20-point 'dog last week in losing 20-13 to South Florida on the road. The Pirates defense is much improved, ranking 48th in scoring defense giving up 22.3 points. East Carolina ranks 51st in rushing offense.
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09-29-18 | Purdue v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
No this isn't a misprint. Purdue really is more than a field goal road favorite against Nebraska. Perhaps the line is justified giving how disappointing Nebraska has been under Scott Frost opening 0-3 and that Purdue is coming off a 30-13 victory against previously unbeaten Boston College. That was the Boilermakers' largest win margin of a ranked opponent in 19 years. But enough factors are at work here that I am confident in projecting Nebraska to win. The Cornhuskers wouldn't look so bad if they were 2-1. But the final moments of their games against Troy and Colorado went against them. The Cornhuskers then laid an egg against Michigan during their first road game. Michigan played well and steamrolled Nebraska. I see the Cornhuskers bouncing back here at home. Nebraska freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez has tremendous potential and is the right quarterback to operate the team's spread offense. This is the type of offense Purdue has trouble against. Martinez is a dual threat and has some of the best wide receivers in the Big Ten to throw to, including Stanley Morgan. He might be the No. 1 wideout in the conference. On defense, Nebraska has the pass rushers to bother David Blough, who needs a clean pocket to be effective.
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
Even on the road, I'll take Ben Roethlisberger over Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been playing well above his head. The Steelers are by far more experienced in marquee national televised games. They also are 9-1-1 in their last 11 regular season road games. The Buccaneers are beat-up in the secondary, vulnerable to Antonio Browns and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Another plus for the Steelers is the expected return of cornerback Joe Hadon, who should limit DeSean Jackson's home-run ability. Pittsburgh also has a far more dependable place-kicker.
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +6 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 42 h 9 m | Show | |
The Bears are a team on the rise. Right now, though, they are a work-in-progress with a below average quarterback and caught in a bad situational spot. It only is Week 3. But the 0-2 Cardinals are in desperate straits under rookie head coach Steve Wilks. They must win this home game, or already they can forget about any playoff possibility. Chicago is traveling a long distance on a short week after beating Seattle at home this past Monday night. Chicago is 3-8 ATS following a victory. The Bears' defense is promising, but it is not at their best yet. That won't happen until Khalil Mack and rookie Roquan Smith become 100 percent comfortable in the system. The Cardinals have their own star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. It was Jones, not Mack, who led the NFL in sacks last season with 17. No other player had even 15 sacks. Cornerback Patrick Peterson gives Arizona the best defensive back on the field, too. Wilks, the former defensive coordinator for Carolina, should be able to devise a sound plan going against second-year quarterback, Mitch Trubisky. The game has yet to slow down for Trubisky. He isn't any better than Sam Bradford. More mobile yes, but he lacks Bradford's veteran savvy and accuracy. Bradford will play better once the Cardinals figure out they need to get superstar running back David Johnson in space more. Wilks has had two games now to figure that out. Johnson has been under utilized. I see Johnson being the focal point of Arizona's offense and more dangerous than in the previous two games because the Cardinals will do more to get him on the outside, including putting him in the slot, or even flanking him wide. The Bears are going to take the Cardinals' best punch. I don't see them ready to cover more than a field goal on the road in a huge flat spot. |
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09-23-18 | Chargers +7.5 v. Rams | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 58 m | Show | |
It's understandable that the Rams sit on top of most people's NFL power ratings. They are strong on both sides of the ball. But I envision the Rams struggling to win this game for a number of reasons. Sean McVay held his key players out during preseason. The Rams were able to get away with that because their opponents during the first two weeks of the regular season were the Raiders and Cardinals. Both are winless. The Chargers represent a major upgrade. The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. They don't carry a strong home field advantage especially against this opponent, which also plays now in LA. The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their past 23 road contests. It is difficult for a team to blow out the Chargers because of Philip Rivers. During their last 18 games, the Chargers have lost by more than a field goal only four times. Rivers is an elite quarterback and is having another excellent season ranking in the top-four in touchdown passes, yards, completion percentage and passer rating. The Rams have a trio of good wide receivers in Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. But Keenan Allen is the best wide receiver on the field. He trumps them all. Rivers is especially effective when he has Allen. Much is being made of Joey Bosa being out. Sure his absence lessens the Chargers' pass rush. But the Chargers still have Melvin Ingram and their secondary, already good, is even better this season with the addition of star rookie safety Derwin James. The Rams are missing one of their key defensive cogs, too, with linebacker Mark Barron expected to sit out a third straight game due to an Achilles injury. The Rams' kicking game was a huge strength last season because of Greg Zuerlein. However, he's out. So the Rams are going with largely untested backup kicker, Sam Ficken. |
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09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans -5.5 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 7 m | Show | |
Both teams are 0-2 and desperate. The Texans have the talent, huge defensive edge and home field to do more about it. DeShaun Watson is getting less rusty and better each week. Getting deep threat Will Fuller back is huge for him. As good as Odell Beckham Jr. is, I would take DeAndre Hopkins over him. The Texans are coming off one of their ugliest and most embarrassing losses in franchise history, losing 20-17 on the road to the Titans last Sunday when Tennessee was missing its three top offensive tackles, leading receiver tight end Delanie Walker and going with backup Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. This should mean a huge maximum effort from Houston this week. The Texans' defensive line should control a disappointing Giants offense that is averaging a meager 14 points a game. Eli Manning is well past his prime. He's been terrible and so has the revamped Giants offense line. Nobody has played well on it, including left tackle Nate Solder. Manning was sacked six times in New York's Sunday night loss to the Cowboys. J.J. Watt should be able to dominate. Pat Shurmur has not made a difference. The Giants are as bad under him as they were during Ben McAdoo's two-year stay. Houston's offensive line is no great shakes either. But the Texans have the superior defense and Watson is extremely mobile. Those are enough important edges to ensure the Texans beat the Giants by at least a touchdown. |
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09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes may be the league MVP through the first two weeks with his NFL record 10 touchdown passes. But there is a flip side to the Chiefs: Their defense. It's terrible. Kansas City ranks last defensively in yards and passing yards. The Chiefs are 29th in scoring defense giving up 32.5 points per game. The 49ers have become respectable since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as their starting quarterback. San Francisco is 6-1 in those games. I like the 49ers much more in an underdog role than as a favorite. I find them feisty and well-coached under Kyle Shanahan. They have covered in seven of their last 10 road games. The lone loss in Garoppolo's 49ers starts came opening week to the Vikings, 24-16, on the road. San Francisco could have won that game, but self-destructed. Garoppolo was under heavy pass rush pressure from the Vikings. The Chiefs don't have a strong pass rush. They have only two sacks. Their secondary remains rudderless without star safety Eric Berry, who is expected to miss a third straight game due to a lingering heel injury. The 49ers have a well-designed offense that can put up points. Matt Breida surprisingly leads the NFC in rushing. San Francisco has the defensive advantage here. DeForest Buckner has more sacks than the entire Chiefs team. Yes, the Chiefs are explosive. There are going to be points scored here that's for sure. But San Francisco's defense is going to look better with the return of linebackers Reuben Foster from suspension and Malcolm Smith from a hamstring injury. Foster has the potential to be a difference maker both as a run-stopper and blitzer. |