Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-17-20 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
The Rangers snuck past the Astros, 1-0, on Wednesday. I see the Astros bouncing back in a big way from that frustrating defeat. Texas manager Chris Woodward continues to experiment and build for next season. The Rangers had five rookies in their starting lineup during Tuesday's opening game of the series. The Rangers are 0-9 the past nine times when playing Game 3 of a series. Jordan Lyles is slated to start for Texas. He probably should no longer be in any team's starting rotation with a 7.80 ERA. Woodward could use this as a bullpen game so Lyles' stint could be short. Houston starter Framber Valdez began the season hot, but has cooled off during his last two starts. He should get back on track against the Rangers, a team he held to three runs with eight strikeouts in seven innings on Sept. 1. The Astros have won 12 of their last 14 home games against the Rangers, who have lost by 3 or more runs during eight of their last nine losses. |
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09-16-20 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
An excuse is hardly needed to fade the sinking Diamondbacks. But I have an excellent excuse in this matchup - Dylan Bundy. Even with their victory against the Angels on Tuesday night, the Diamondbacks still have lost 20 of their last 26 games with five of their past six defeats occurring by multiple runs. Bundy has become an ace. All it took was getting out of the AL East and a huge hitter's park in Baltimore to joining the Angels and their pitcher-friendly park. Bundy is 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA that shrinks to 2.29 if you just go by his last three starts. The Angels just faced lefty Madison Bumgarner last night, reaching him for eight earned runs and 13 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Now the Angels draw a second straight southpaw in Caleb Smith, a youngster who has yet to prove he can consistently pitch effectively away from Marlins Park after being dealt to the Diamondbacks by the Marlins at the trade deadline.
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 108 h 19 m | Show |
The public appeal of the Cowboys and the market being down on the Rams after last season's disappointment have produced a mispriced line here. The Rams should not be a field goal home 'dog to Dallas. Although there will be no fans in the stand, the Rams have extra motivation for a 44-21 embarrassing loss they suffered to the Cowboys last season and this being the first game at their new SoFi Stadium. Jared Goff is close to an elite quarterback - when he's playing at home where he has a 31-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two seasons compared to a 22-to-17 ratio on the road during this time span. Goff is a pocket passer. The Cowboys don't have their full complement of star pass rushers yet. Dallas' secondary is the most vulnerable part of its defense. Dallas has a high-powered attack. However, the Cowboys' offense may need time to get into gear. Mike McCarthy didn't coach last year. He had a shortened offseason and no preseason to to implement his style. The Cowboys are down two of their offensive linemen from a year ago being minus center Travis Frederick and right tackle La'el Collins. Then there is the Cowboys record as a road favorite. It's not good. Dallas lost straight-up laying points on the road last season to the Eagles, Bears, Jets and Saints, who were using Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. |
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09-13-20 | Bucs +3.5 v. Saints | 23-34 | Loss | -104 | 104 h 16 m | Show | |
No team improved themselves more in the offseason than the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay went 7-9 last season, but two of those losses occurred in overtime and three other defeats were by four points or fewer. Now the Bucs have increased their respect level by adding Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Brady is going to produce points with receiving stars Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to go with a trio of very good tight ends - Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Tampa Bay's offense can trade points with Drew Brees. While Brady received all the off-season attention, the Bucs maintained their underrated defensive front of Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. The Bucs ranked No. 1 in run defense last season and Barrett led the NFL in sacks. The Saints have a losing record in season-openers during Sean Payton's 14 years. They are 1-5 during their past six opening games and 0-10 ATS during the first two weeks of the season in the past five years.
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09-13-20 | Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 104 h 5 m | Show | |
There will be times to back the 49ers this season. This isn't one of them. Not with all the players the 49ers may not have. They could be the most banged-up team in the NFL right now. The Cardinals were undervalued by the oddsmaker last season when they went 9-5-2 ATS and they are at the start of this season with this large of a spread. Kyler Murray displayed great potential last year. He'll make a jump in this his second season surrounded by stronger weapons, including top-five wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona also looks much improved defensively. If you discount a meaningless 49ers defensive touchdown on the final play of the game, the Cardinals lost to San Francisco by a combined seven points last season, an average loss of 3.5 points. The 49ers are weaker this season and the Cardinals are stronger. These teams are familiar with each other. It can't be overlooked either that division 'dogs have covered 81 percent on opening week since 2014, a sampling of 27 games. |
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09-13-20 | Colts v. Jaguars +9.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 100 h 27 m | Show | |
You have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Colts won a road opener. The Colts have had problems playing in Jacksonville's humidity losing during their past three visits by an average margin of 14.6 points. Philip Rivers is learning a new system. He's played his entire 14-year career with the Chargers. Rivers clearly is well past his prime. The Colts brought in Rivers figuring he would be an upgrade on Jacoby Brisset. They both had the exact same low passer rating, though, last season. Jacksonville's secondary is gutted, but its defensive front seven is respectable. Josh Allen is the best pass rusher on the field. The Jaguars have youthful talent on offense. These guys are hungry to make their mark. Maybe later in the season, the Jaguars might begin tanking. But not now. This is going to be very tough for the Colts to win their first Game 1 game in six years. Much tougher than the marketplace thinks.
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09-12-20 | Golden Knights -1.5 v. Stars | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
Dallas leads this Western Conference Finals series 2-1. But the Stars aren't the better team. Las Vegas would have the series lead if Dallas backup goalie Anton Khudobin didn't come up with the game of his life stopping 38 of 40 shots in the Stars' 3-2 overtime victory on Thursday. The Golden Knights have dangerous scoring capability with all four of their lines. They know the importance of jumping in front of the Stars. Dallas is 8-1 in one-goal games during the playoffs and 3-7 in games decided by multiple goals. If the Golden Knights are able get an early lead, I could see that snowballing into a blowout victory. The Stars have reverted back to their conservative, defensive ways of the regular season. Ben Bishop is not in net for them, though. Khudobin is and I don't see him producing a second straight monster game. He's not a spectacular goalies. He's just a solid backup who needs plenty of defense in front of him for protection. This limits the Stars from an offensive perspective. Despite the Game 3 loss, the Golden Knights still have beaten the Stars seven of the past 10 times. The Stars also are 2-8 the past 10 times after giving up 2 or fewer goals during their last game.
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09-12-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 101 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
The Rockets are cooked. They know it and they can't really do anything about it. LeBron James is on a mission to bring the Lakers to the NBA Championship Series. The Rockets have firepower. But the Rockets don't match up well to the Lakers, are outcoached and LA has a huge confidence and psychological edge. This has built up through the last three games, all won by the Lakers after they lost Game 1. The final score in LA's 110-100 Game 4 victory on Thursday was misleading. The Lakers dominated the Rockets leading by 23 points in the fourth quarter before letting up, which they won't do in this potential close-out game. The Lakers outscored the smallish Rockets, 62-24, in the paint, grabbed 26 more rebounds and held a 19-2 fast-break points edge. Even if he were a good coach, which he isn't, Mike D'Antoni doesn't have the lineup flexibility to make proper adjustments. The Rockets have just one style and the Lakers have countered and exposed it. The Lakers have dictated their style and pace the past three games. That's not going to change. The Lakers should have a killer attitude, too, after the Rockets threw a bit of scare into them in Game 4 by cutting the margin to just five points with around a minute left. James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are getting the necessary help from their teammates. Rajon Rondo has been coming up big. James reminds me of Michael Jordan in not just terms of basketball greatness, but in leadership and obsession to win a title willing his teammates to perform at peak efficiency. This is what James said following Game 4: "Obviously, we've got to be better. We got to close out games the right way." Never mind that the Lakers still won by 10. James wasn't happy. I don't think the Rockets' heads are all there. Danuel House Jr. being kicked out of the bubble for a violation of health doesn't help their focus. House averaged 11.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in the playoffs. His departure further exposes the Rockets' lack of depth and fatigue issues. |
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09-12-20 | UTEP +43.5 v. Texas | 3-59 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
There's not much positive to say about UTEP. But the Miners have already played a game, beating Stephen F. Austin, 24-14, last Saturday. It's worth more this season to have played a game with limited off-season workouts. This is the Longhorns' opener. The Longhorns are going to treat this matchup as a glorified scrimmage. It's their lone non-Big 12 game matchup. Texas isn't going to waste much energy running up a score on UTEP, while the Miners want to keep things respectable in order to bolster their confidence and improve in-state recruiting. The Longhorns just want to get some rust off their starters and then get their reserves in so nobody important gets hurt. Texas being home actually helps the underdog with this large of a spread because the Longhorns can dress more players than they normally could if they were traveling.
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09-12-20 | Houston Baptist +41 v. Texas Tech | 33-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Houston Baptist was one of the teams that played last week. That's an advantage for the Huskies because Texas Tech has yet to see action. The Red Raiders have a very good QB in Alan Bowman. But he hasn't seen action in a year due to a broken collarbone. The Red Raiders are breaking in two new offensive tackles so they want to be careful that Bowman doesn't get hurt again. If Texas Tech jumps to a big early lead it would be risky and foolish to keep Bowman on the field. Houston Baptist isn't going to hold Texas Tech in check. But the Huskies can produce points behind a high-volume, spread offense that their offensive coordinator, Zach Kittley, learned during his time as an assistant coach at Texas Tech under Kliff Kingsburgy. The Red Raiders had one of the worst pass defenses last season. |
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09-12-20 | UTSA v. Texas State -6.5 | 51-48 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Both teams were awful last season. Texas State looks improved, though, in its second year under Jake Spavital. The Bobcats hung in against SMU last week, losing 31-24, as 24 1/2-point home 'dogs. Memphis transfer Brady McBride threw for 227 yards and 2 TD's for the Bobcats. Texas State's offense looked much sharper with Spavital taking over the play-calling duties. SMU has a strong offense. Yet the Bobcats were able to come up with three turnovers and forced the Mustangs to punt three times. Now Texas State drops way down in class. Not only is UTSA a bad team - ranking 117th in points and 112th in giving up points last year - but it hasn't played yet. The Roadrunners have a new coaching staff under Jeff Traylor. Don't look for Traylor to get off to a promising start. His team has had to deal with a coronavirus outbreak with a number of players ruled out for this game because of it.
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09-11-20 | Tigers v. White Sox -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
The pitching matchup, spot and huge talent edge all are set up here for the White Sox. I want to get involved with the White Sox and the best way to do that is cut the monster juice down by playing them on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. Detroit is playing for the ninth time in seven days. This is the Tigers' fourth different venue during this span. Their bullpen, not good to begin with, carries a heavy fatigue rating. The White Sox, by contrast, are rested, refreshed and confident. They enjoyed a day off on Thursday while the Tigers had to play a road doubleheader against the Cardinals. Lucas Giolito is one of the elite pitchers in the American League. He's been dominant in his last three starts at Guaranteed Rate Field with a 1.71 ERA. The Tigers are going with rookie Casey Mize, who the White Sox just saw on Aug. 19. Chicago got to Mize for three runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings. Mize is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but he's being force-fed this season. His ERA is 6.75 in four starts. |
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09-10-20 | UAB +14.5 v. Miami-FL | 14-31 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 44 m | Show | |
I don't understand why the oddsmaker respects Miami so much in this matchup. I don't see the Hurricanes, a middle-of-the-road ACC team, as being 2-touchdowns superior to UAB, perhaps the best team in Conference USA. The Blazers have a strong defense, particularly versus the pass, and return 10 starters on offense. They have won 28 games during the past three seasons. Very important to note here, too, is UAB has played a game. The Blazers beat Central Arkansas, 45-35, last Thursday. That score was misleading considering the Blazers' domination. This is Miami's first game. The Hurricanes couldn't practice in the spring. They are switching to a spread offense featuring D'Eriq King, who transferred from Houston. King has a big name, but he's one of the more overrated players in my view. I see the Hurricanes struggling against this defense, hurt by not having enough time and practice to learn a new offense and quarterback. Miami's home field advantage is narrowed, too, because there will be limited fan capacity. |
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09-09-20 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
I see too much overreaction to the Celtics in this Game 6 following Boston's, 111-89, blowout victory against the Raptors on Monday. It was surprising how little energy the Raptors came out and exerted in that loss, which puts them on the verge of elimination. Zero chance the Raptors come out lethargic in this one with their season on the line. Boston has more star power, but there is not a class difference between these two teams. The Raptors are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. They are well-coached, battle-tested having won the championship last season and will play with tremendous energy. Yes, Toronto got buried in Game 1 and Game 5. But they won two of the other three games and had a chance to tie at the buzzer in the other one. The Celtics are an elite Eastern Conference team. So is Toronto. It is a mistake to disrespect the Raptors. |
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09-08-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 10-9 | Loss | -135 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks' white flag is flying high. Arizona is 2-17 in its last 19 games! The Diamondbacks are 0-11 the past 11 times facing a righthanded starter and now draw Walker Buehler. Buehler has given up one earned run in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He has a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this frame. He's one of the best young pitchers in baseball. The Diamondbacks have scored 3 or fewer runs in 14 of their last 18 games. They are playing a lot of youngsters who just aren't very good. Luke Weaver also was a good young pitcher - until he got hurt. Weaver has yet to prove he can return to form. He's 1-6 with a 7.44 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Weaver has yielded eight homers in 32 2/3 innings. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and runs scored.
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09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +9 | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
The Clippers blew out the Nuggets in Game 1. The Nuggets, though, came back to beat the Clippers, 110-101, on Saturday. There was nothing fluky about Denver's win either. Nuggets coach Michael Malone made good adjustments and Denver outplayed LA on both ends. The Nuggets swarmed Kawhi Leonard. It was a gamble that paid off. Leonard had a horrible shooting game and the rest of his teammates didn't step up enough. The Clippers entered the reboot having the best bench in the league. But I've not been impressed with how their bench has played during the resumed season. Some of it has been lack of timing since key reserves were missing. The Clippers are back to full strength, but their depth is way overrated. Leonard and Paul George draw superstar labels. However, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray provide Denver with needed star power and go-to scorers so crucial in playoff basketball. Having solid two-way player Gary Harris back is another important and perhaps overlooked element the Nuggets have. Doc Rivers is highly articulate and an excellent player coach. I don't consider Rivers a great strategist, though, and adjustments are needed by the Clippers following their Game 2 upset loss. I see the Nuggets, with their confidence bolstered, staying within single digits of the Clippers. |
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09-06-20 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
The Rockies upset the Dodgers, 5-2, on Saturday. Prior to that game, the Dodgers were 17-1 at home versus Colorado. It has been 23 games since the Dodgers last dropped two straight games. LA has followed its last three defeats by crushing the opposition by at least five runs each time. The price is huge here as it should be with Julio Urias facing Ryan Castellani followed by by Chi Chi Gonzalez as the Rockies are treating this as a bullpen game. So laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line makes plenty of sense. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and are No. 2 in runs. They aren't going to lack for offense against these stiff pitchers and Colorado's bullpen. LA starter Julio Urias is another one of the Dodgers' high-caliber young pitchers. He's coming off an excellent outing against the Diamondbacks giving up one run on four hits in six innings with no walks and five strikeouts this past Tuesday.
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
Lakers minus 5 1/2 vs. Rockets We've seen this occur before with the Lakers. Just like in LA's previous playoff series, the Lakers were ambushed in Game 1. LA lost to Portland and now was blown out by the Rockets in the series opener. The Lakers responded by destroying the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 while winning the next four games in that series. Part of that Game 2 victory was because the Trail Blazers were tired and in a letdown spot. That could happen to the Rockets, too, since they were coming off a grueling 7-game series against the physical Thunder. LA hadn't played in six days before Game 1. The rust should be off now for the Lakers, especially their reserve and role players who were outplayed. It shouldn't have happened, but the Lakers also were caught off guard by the Rockets' speed. They won't be anymore. LeBron James won't let it happen again. |
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09-06-20 | White Sox -1.5 v. Royals | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
The Royals are reshuffling their rotation saying they are going to start Matt Harvey today. I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. Harvey has no business on any big league team's starting rotation. He's yet to pitch more than three innings and has a 14.09 ERA. Dallas Keuchel goes for the White Sox. He has a 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Chicago is a much better team than Kansas City and going for the sweep here. The White Sox are 14-4 in their last 18 road games and 8-1 in their last nine games against the Royals. Kansas City has dropped five in a row. The odds are good the White Sox will win this game by multiple runs since 17 of their last 18 victories have been by two or more runs. This could be a final chance to fade Harvey so I'm going to take it.
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09-05-20 | White Sox -1.5 v. Royals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
The White Sox are 12-0 versus lefty starters this season. They have a mismatch in today's game with Lucas Giolito facing southpaw Kris Bubic. Giolito has become one of the better pitchers in the league. He has a 3.14 ERA. Bubic has a 5.46 ERA. The Royals are 0-5 in Bubic's five starts this year. The White Sox destroy lefthanded pitching. They have the highest sluggest percentage (.574) and highest OPS (.954) in the majors versus lefties. Chicago also is batting a second-best .303 against southpaws. Chicago is 13-4 in its last 17 road games and has beaten the Royals in seven of the past eight games. The odds are good the White Sox will win this game by multiple runs since 16 of their last 17 victories have been by two or more runs.
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09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics +1 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
It took a miracle play with a half-second left, but the Raptors got their victory against the Celtics. That happened in Game 3 on Thursday when OG Anunoby hit a long corner 3-pointer to pull out a 104-103 Raptors win. The Celtics still are fuming about that loss. I consider Boston the superior team and the Celtics sure won't be lacking incentive after two days of watching and hearing about the Raptors' tremendous in-bound play to Anunoby. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU versus the Raptors this season. The Celtics have the star power Toronto lacks without Kawhi Leonard. The Celtics have several go-to player options. The Raptors don't have anyone proven to carry them in playoff crunch time since Leonard departed. Boston leads this series yet hasn't played its best basketball yet. That "A" game is due to come right here. The spread couldn't be lower, but note Boston has covered 75 percent of the time in 24 instances of being an underdog this season. The Celtics also have covered six of their seven playoff games. If the 76ers didn't hit a couple of meaningless long 3-pointers in the final 30 seconds off a loss, the Celtics would have an unbeaten postseason spread mark. |
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09-04-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
The Lakers very well could be the best team in the NBA - if they are on their "A" game. I don't think we see that here, though. We certainly didn't see it in the Lakers' Game 1 series matchup against Portland. The Trail Blazers upset the Lakers, 100-93, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs in that series opener. LA opened that series having finished with the worst offense of any of the bubble teams. The combination of LA stepping up its game and Portland running out of gas and being severely banged-up resulted in the Lakers winning the next four games. This brings us to this stage. The Lakers have been idle since Saturday. Six days between games is too long. So there is likely to be some rust. The Rockets struggled with the Thunder before dispatching them in Game 7 on Tuesday. It's a short turnaround after a physical and emotional series. But the Rockets do have a full day to rest and recuperate. They are in a bubble, too. So they should have their full focus and concentration. James Harden is thrilled to be rid of rookie defensive ace Lugentz Dort. There isn't a player in the league who can guard Harden as effectively as Dort. Certainly the Lakers don't have one. The closest might be Alex Caruso. If the Lakers try him on Harden they're going to give up offense. Caruso is 5-for-28 in 3-point shooting since play resumed. I'm confident Harden will return to his normal dominant self free of the pesky Dort. The key is Russell Westbrook. He was plenty rusty returning from a quad injury. But he's had three games now to get back into shape. Westbrook presents a tough matchup for the Lakers. The Rockets are 2-0 against the Lakers in their last two meetings, one of which came in the bubble. Houston won those games by an average of 13 points. The Lakers have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been favored. |
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09-03-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks gave it a great try Wednesday night against the Dodgers, but fell one run short in losing for the 12th time in 13 games. That was with Arizona pitching its ace, Zack Gallen. Now the Diamondbacks draw Dodgers ace, a rejuvenated and healthy lefty Clayton Kershaw. Demoralized by giving up four veterans at the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks aren't likely to offer much resistance after blowing an extra inning lead last night. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball at 28-10. Kershaw is back in dominant form going 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 33-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the season in 30 innings. The Diamondbacks are averaging two runs per game in their last four games. They are 1-8 on the season versus southpaw starters, which isn't surprising since they are batting .227 against lefties and rank third-from-last in MLB in slugging percentage against lefthanders. LA leads the majors in homers and are second in runs. So Luke Weaver, who has been up and down on the comeback trail, is facing a major challenge. Weaver did not pitch well in his last start against the much-weaker hitting Giants. Weaver surrendered four earned runs on eight hits in three innings.
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09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Dealing Starling Marte, Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley, the Diamondbacks have hoisted up the white flag for 2020. The Dodgers should be able to take full advantage being 26-10 and having just broken the National League for homers in a month. The Dodgers are even more dangerous with the NL now using the DH. The Diamondbacks are throwing Alex Young, a fill-in replacement for injured Madison Bumgarner. Young has a 4.70 ERA. The Dodgers should overwhelm Young and the Diamondbacks' bullpen. Julio Urias is another one of those young top of the line pitching prospects for the Dodgers. Urias has a lifetime 2.08 ERA versus Arizona in four appearances. The Dodgers have won by multiple runs in seven of their last eight victories.
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09-01-20 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -139 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
In Framber Valdez I trust. Valdez has emerged as a dependable starter for the Astros posting a 2.35 ERA. He's coming off a career-high 11 strikeouts against the Angels. Valdez is in excellent form going 3-0 during his last three starts with a 2.61 ERA during this span and 21 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings. The Rangers are 2-12 in their last 14 games. They also have lost in their last nine road games against the Astros. This is almost a give-up game for the Rangers as they have made it a bullpen game. Luis Garcia is supposed to be the first victim up. He has a 5.40 ERA. He's likely to be followed by equally ineffective Jordan Lyles, who has a 9.25 ERA.
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09-01-20 | Indians -1.5 v. Royals | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Zach Plesac is a promising young pitcher with much to prove in this start. He hasn't pitched since Aug. 8 because he violated team protocol. Plesac was looking good this season with a 24-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21 innings. He is 3-0 lifetime versus the Royals with a 2.11 ERA in four career outings. The other half of this handicap is a fade on washed-up Matt Harvey, who hasn't made it past the third inning in either of his two starts this season. He has an 11.12 ERA. I'm surprised he's still in a starting rotation. Cleveland has won 10 of its last 12 away games and is 13-5 during the past 18 meetings against the Royals. |
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08-31-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
The Bucks lost to the Magic in the first game of their opening series. So they are certainly capable of losing to the Heat, who are much superior to the Magic and match up well to the Bucks. I envision a very tough series for Milwaukee, whose mental focus might not all be there. The Heat have playoff experience, added several strong pieces right before bubble play began and Erik Spoelstra is one of the better coaches in the league. The Heat have proven they can play with the big boys of the East going 8-5 versus the Bucks, Raptors, 76ers and Celtics. They dominated the Pacers going 7-1 against them. The Heat played tremendous in sweeping the Pacers in their first-round series winning all four games by nine or more points. Miami beat the Bucks in both of its meetings before the restart. The Bucks defeated the Heat, 130-116, in their lone bubble matchup. That score is highly misleading, though. Miami led by 17 points at halftime. The Bucks really wanted that game since they were off back-to-back losses and Miami didn't have Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Now the Heat are healthy. The Heat are a dangerous foe to Milwaukee because of several reasons. Bam Adebayo could be the most improved player in the league. He's a tremendous defensive player and did one of the best jobs of any player in the league in defending Giannis Antetokoumpo. The Bucks' lone defensive weakness is 3-point defense because they stress inside defense stacking the paint. The Heat shoot 37.9 percent from 3-point range. That was second best in the NBA. Milwaukee led the NBA in scoring. The Bucks did it by being strong on the fast break and also scoring from inside the paint. The Heat gave up the fewest fast-break points in the NBA and also rank among the top-five in paint protection. So it's not some fluke that Miami beat Milwaukee two of three times.
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08-30-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +10.5 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Only once have the Mavericks been a double-digit underdog this season - and they beat the Bucks straight-up on the road in that game. But the combination of the Clippers coming off a 43-point victory against the Mavericks and Dallas being without injured Kristaps Porzingis has caused the oddsmaker to make the Clippers favored by more points in this game than in any other during the series. Maybe the oddsmaker also is thinking Luka Doncic could be hobbled by an ankle injury. If that's the case it would be a mistake. The Clippers buried the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The teams have been idle since giving Doncic much needed recovery time. "The extra two or three days is a plus, certainly. In practice today, he looked pretty good, so going into tomorrow, I don't think he's going to be limited," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle was quoted as saying on Saturday about Doncic. Doncic's guts and heroics have been an inspiration for the Mavericks. They are facing elimination in this game down 3-2 so an all-out effort should be forthcoming. But what about the Clippers' motivation? I have to question it. LA can't be blamed if feeling overconfident coming off its 154-111 Game 5 win. The Clippers also know Porzingis won't be playing. Along with possible overconfidence, the Clippers could lack focus following the events of the past few days. They, along with the Lakers, reportedly were two of the clubs that voted to end the season. How much of their hearts will be in this game? On top of that the Clippers are being asked to cover double-digits. I don't see it. |
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08-30-20 | Twins -1.5 v. Tigers | 2-3 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
I want the Twins and Kenta Maeda going for me after the Tigers swept a doubleheader from Minnesota on Saturday. How rare was Detroit sweeping? The Twins had won 68 percent of their last 60 games as a road favorite. The Tigers are 11-51 in their last 62 home games against a righty starter. Maeda has been highly consistent. He's 4-0 with a 2.26 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. He's in great form, too, with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts. The Tigers are going with their prize rookie Casey Mize. He has a monster upside, but right now he's a work-in-progress. Mize has a 7.04 ERA and hasn't reached the fifth inning in either of his first two starts.
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08-28-20 | Mariners +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The Angels aren't playing well, losing 11 of their last 14 games and Andrew Heaney is in bad form with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts. So I'll take a 1 1/2 runs with the Mariners, who have won five of their last six. If given 1 1/2 runs, Seattle would be 9-3 in its last 12 games. The Mariners are going with Nick Margevicius, who is showing potential in his last two starts joining the rotation in place of injured Kendall Graveman. Margevicius has a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those outings and is coming off a victory against the Rangers. |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
Dramatic victory by the Mavericks on Sunday nipping the Clippers, 135-133, in overtime at the buzzer on a 3-pointer by Luka Doncic. That Dallas victory evened this playoff series at 2-2 and had Clippers coach Doc Rivers calling his team emotionally weak. It's too bad Dallas can't savor that victory longer. But the Mavericks can't. I don't see them being able to step up again in such a short time frame against a superior foe that isn't going to lack motivation and should be fully aroused. The Clippers are the deeper teams. That's going to matter more and more as the series continues. Doncic is playing on a tender left ankle. Kristaps Porzingis is a game-time decision with a sore knee. He missed Sunday's game, which put an extra burden on Doncic and the rest of the Mavericks. The Mavericks still won with tremendous effort and grit after falling behind by 21 points. But the bill for that effort comes due here. Dallas is 1-5 ATS the last six times following a victory. Even with that win and cover, Dallas still is 2-6 ATS the past eight times versus the Clippers. Paul George is way overdue to shoot better. He's missed 21 of 25 shots from beyond the arc during the last three games. The looks and open floor are there for George. It's not the Mavericks' mediocre defense that is causing George to miss. So a correction is coming. If George plays his normal stellar game, the Clippers should prevail by double-digits. Since I wrote this word has come down that Porzingis won't play. The line has gone up because of it but I still would lay single-digits with the Clippers. |
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08-25-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
Say didn't you used to be Matt Harvey stud pitcher for the Mets? That was three teams and five years ago. Harvey never recovered from serious arm trouble. His time in the big leagues is likely limited so the time to fade him is now because chances are going to soon run out. Harvey made his first start of the year six days ago against the Reds. Predictably it didn't go well. Harvey gave up three runs in three innings allowing four hits in a 5-0 loss. Adam Wainwright is past his prime, but he's started the season well going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA. He's facing a Royals club that is not playing well and ranks 29th in runs scored. The Cardinals have started to get their offense in gear averaging 4.5 runs in their last six games. St. Louis has won three in a row - all by 3 or more runs. The Royals have been a bad road team losing 102 of their past 150 away games.
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08-24-20 | Lakers -7.5 v. Blazers | Top | 135-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
No doubt the Lakers are the superior team. That's not the question here, though. The question is can the Lakers cover this mid-size number? Yes for three big reasons: 1. LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Trail Blazers can't control either one. They don't have the elite defense to do that. 2. Injuries. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are both playing hurt and at less than 100 percent. Big man Zach Collins is out making the task of guarding Davis even more difficult. 3. A heavy fatigue factor working against the Trail Blazers. Portland has had to play every matchup, including an extra play-in game, like it was a Game 7 matchup. This has taken a huge mental and physical toll. The Trail Blazers have one the thinnest benches in the league, made worse by injuries. Their starters are exhausted because they've had to go extra minutes while not having the customary two days off between games, nor a home playoff game to get a crowd lift and raise spirits. Take a look at the foul situation from Saturday's Game 3. The Lakers shot 43 free throws to Portland's 19. Was the officiating bad? I didn't think so. The Trail Blazers are just a tired team so they can't play playoff-caliber defense without fouling. The Lakers made only 65 percent of their free throws. They also committed 17 turnovers. So LA didn't come close to playing its "A" level game. Yet the Lakers still won by eight points after winning by 23 points in Game 2. Portland is out of gas since its Game 1 upset win. That got the Lakers' attention. So don't expect a letdown from LA. The Lakers know to keep their foot on the gas here.
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08-23-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 145 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights have never lost in regulation to the Canucks in 10 meetings. I don't expect that pattern to change in this Game 1. Given that the Golden Knights are the superior team and are in a very good situational spot, I'm expecting a Las Vegas multi-goal win so I'd rather grab a nice plus price on the puck line than lay heavy juice. The Canucks just played this past Friday night when they eliminated the defending Stanley Cup champion Blues. That's a quick turnaround and a letdown spot. By contrast, the Golden Knights have been idle since Wednesday. Having four days to rest and prepare is huge at this stage. The Golden Knights opened their Stanley Cup playoffs with a 4-1 Game 1 victory against the Blackhawks, who had just got through upsetting the Oilers. I could envision the same type of victory here for the Golden Knights, who have a huge edge in depth and defense.
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08-23-20 | Celtics -7.5 v. 76ers | 110-106 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
The Celtics have shown and proven that there is a clear class difference between these two teams with the 76ers missing Ben Simmons. That much we know. The key question here is can Boston cover this large of a spread leading the series, 3-0? I do. The 76ers had their chance to win Game 3 and thus make it a series. But they didn't. They choked. The 76ers blew a lead with 2:14 left. Despite outrebounding Boston, 20-3 on the offensive glass, getting Jayson Tatum in foul trouble and shooting 10 more free throws than Boston, the 76ers still lost by eight points. So they didn't even cover as 6-point 'dogs. Boston should play better. The 76ers are cooked - and they know it. No team in NBA playoff history has come back from a 3-0 series deficit. I don't trust the 76ers' mental fragility. I think they are badly outcoached, too. A double-digit Boston victory should be in the offering here. |
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08-22-20 | Lakers -7 v. Blazers | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers are heavily reliant on Damian Lillard. There are two major concerns about Lillard in this Game 3 series matchup. It's not just Lillard playing with a dislocated finger. It's how the Lakers defended him during their 111-88 victory this past Thursday. They boxed him at the top of the key, limiting his space to shoot. It threw off Lillard's long-range shooting. If Lillard is hampered - both physically and strategically - Portland is in trouble. I don't trust the rest of its players to step up. CJ McCollum is dealing with a broken bone in his back. He's 4-for-13 from 3-point range in the series. Carmelo Anthony has missed 17 of 21 shots from the floor in the series and Jusuf Nurkic is 8-of-21 from the field. On top of this, big man Zach Collins is out with an ankle injury. He's done for the playoffs. The Trail Blazers lack the defense to contain Anthony Davis. The Lakers destroyed the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 with LeBron James contributing only 10 points. Davis tore the Trail Blazers to shreds with 31 points playing less than 30 minutes. Portland could put Wenyen Gabriel on Davis with Collins out. The problem is Gabriel contributes no offense. The Trail Blazers were minus 11 during Gabriel's 21 minutes on the court. I'm not expecting to see the Lakers squad of Game 1, the one that missed 32 of 37 shots from 3-point range and lost 100-93. The Lakers have huge matchup edges now and smell blood. The Trail Blazers are banged up, don't play defense and are carrying a heavy fatigue load. They had to gut their way through eight seeding games and then the play-in game in two weeks to reach the playoffs. Many times Lillard had to carry them with monster scoring performances. Portland's players have logged far more tough minutes than the Lakers. The Lakers are the fresher and superior team.
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08-21-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +5 | 130-122 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Let's go back to early in the second half of Game 1 with the Mavericks leading the Clippers by five points. It was at that point that Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks' best big man and second-best player, was unfairly ejected. That cost Dallas the game. The Mavericks then whipped the Clippers, 127-114, in Game 2 on Wednesday. It was clear Dallas was the superior team. Keep in mind there is no homecourt advantage because these games are all inside the Orlando bubble. This reduces the zig-zag theory of situational basketball where the losing team comes back to win. Now the matchups and coaching are more pure. So just where are the Clippers' advantages that justify them being made a mid-sized favorite for this Game 3? I can't find them. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. OK, two superstars. Luka Doncic and Porzingis give the Mavericks two stars, too, with Porzingis being the best big man on the court. You can make the argument that Doncic is as valuable as Leonard. Coaching? I'll take Rick Carlisle over Doc Rivers especially when it comes to matchup strategy. I consider Carlisle one of the more underrated coaches in the league, while the media-savvy Rivers gets far more publicity. Scoring? The Mavericks had the most efficient offense in NBA history. Bench? The Clippers are supposed to have the best bench in the league. But key reserve Montrezl Harrell isn't in full shape yet having just played two games since being out and starting point guard Patrick Beverley likely remains out due to a calf strain. Dallas' reserves outscored the Clippers' bench by 30 points in Game 2. Beverley's absence is huge. He's an ace defender. The Mavericks are guard heavy and tall in the backcourt.
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08-21-20 | Celtics -5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
You can pull out the fork. The 76ers are finished. Mentally fragile, missing star Ben Simmons, unable to win away from Philadelphia and totally outcoached by the Celtics, the 76rs aren't rising to upset Boston in this Game 3 after losing by eight points and 27 points during the first two games of this series. Minus Simmons, a tremendous two-way player, the 76ers are not only lost on offense but clueless defensively. They don't have the answers, nor the coaching acumen to stop the Celtics' pick-and-rolls and accurate perimeter shooting. It doesn't matter if the Celtics are minus Gordon Hayward. They are a deep team and the 76ers can't slow down Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker. The 76ers are 12-28 away from home. They quit in Game 2. They don't have the matchup answers, nor ability to come up with an effective defensive game plan to stop the Celtics. Maybe the 76ers put forth a supreme effort here down 0-2 in the series. Maybe. But the Celtics still have way too many things in their favor to not cover this mid-range point spread number.
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08-20-20 | Thunder +3 v. Rockets | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Whenever the Thunder are underdogs they get my first look - and in this case last look. I want the Thunder going for me today after the Rockets ambushed them, 123-108, on Tuesday. Oklahoma City is 41-20 ATS as an underdog. That's a long-term covering rate of 67 percent. The Thunder also are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they played after losing by more than 10 points. Houston was an underdog in Game 1. The Rockets have failed to cover eight of the last 11 times they've been favored. The Rockets fired 52 shots from 3-point range in Game 1. They connected on 38 percent. Houston shot 48 percent from the floor and made 89 percent of its free throws. The Rockets live-and-die with the 3-point shot. But Oklahoma City is ranked No. 3 in the NBA in 3-point defense holding foes to 34 percent. On the season, the Rockets shot 45.1 percent from the floor and made 34.5 percent of their 3-pointers. They also are a 79 percent shooting free throw team. So the Rockets were hotter than normal in Game 1. I see the Thunder being more prepared for the Rockets' various perimeter looks and for Houston to not overachieve with its shooting like it did in the opener. The Thunder surrenders six fewer points per game than the Rockets. Remember, too, that Russell Westbrook is out with a right quad injury. While Westbrook is sidelined, the Thunder could get back defensive ace Lugentz Dort. He's been out with a knee injury and is questionable for today's game. That would just be an added bonus if he were to play.
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08-19-20 | Mercury +6.5 v. Sparks | 74-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Diana Taurasi is rounding into shape and Phoenix doesn't lack for talent. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Mercury make a move starting with this game. LA is fat and happy right now. Derek Fisher is my least favorite coach in this league. Phoenix outscores LA on the season and has a strong inside presence with Britney Griner. The Mercury also is coming off their first two-day break since having three days in between their first and second games of the season. That extra day of rest should help them mentally and physically. The Sparks last played this past Saturday. That's too long of a break so they could be rusty.
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08-19-20 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. A's | 1-4 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks are an above .500 team, have won six in a row and are going with their best pitcher this season, Merrill Kelly. Kelly has allowed just one run in his last 12 2/3 innings. He has a 1.71 ERA and 0.91 ERA on the season. The A's are going with Jesus Luzardo, a highly-promising rookie who has been up and down. He has a 4.79 ERA. He's coming off a game where he allowed six runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Giants.
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08-19-20 | Mavs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
The Mavericks are a dangerous team. Their record is 43-32. They have lost 13 times since Feb. 7 with more than half of those defeats occurring by 4 or fewer points. The Clippers beat the Mavericks, 118-110, this past Monday to open this series. Dallas lost by eight points despite opening the game being outscored, 18-2. The Mavericks lost despite a bogus ejection of Kristaps Porzingis, their second-best player and top big man, less than three minutes into the third quarter. LA has the better defense and more bench strength. However, the Mavericks finished with the highest-rated offense in NBA history. The Clippers are still working a number of their players back into the rotation after they missed the final regular season games in the bubble. This list includes Montrezl Harrell and Patrick Beverley.
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08-18-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks have nothing to be ashamed of. They made the playoffs taking out the Oilers in round-robin play. The Blackhawks also didn't get swept by the Golden Knights during this Stanley Cup playoff series because they won Game 4 two days ago. But now the clock has struck midnight for Chicago. The Golden Knights could be the best team in hockey. They out-chanced the Blackhawks, 41-4, in losing this past Sunday despite playing perhaps their best game of the series. There is a huge class and depth difference in this series. The Blackhawks have some great veterans, but they also have a lot of youth and their third line can't compete with the Golden Knights' third line. Las Vegas is up 3-1 in the series despite not scoring a single power-play goal. That's due to change. The Golden Knights had the ninth-best power play during the regular season. Now the Golden Knights have added motivation after losing in their last game. The edges are all there, so I feel confident in backing the Golden Knights at a plus price laying 1 1/2 goals rather than laying heavy juice.
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08-18-20 | Aces -3 v. Sky | 82-84 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
The Aces were fortunate to play the sinking Mystics during their last game this past Saturday. Perhaps bothered by an early start time, they didn't play well. But now the Aces are fully rested and have revenge for their most frustrating defeat of the season - an 88-86 loss to Chicago on July 26. The Sky scored the final 11 points in that contest to pull out the victory. Las Vegas has won seven in a row. The Aces are the second-best team in the league right now behind only Seattle. The Aces lead the league in scoring and can take advantage of the turnover-prone Sky.
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08-18-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Now it's time for the Bucks to get serious. The Raptors and Celtics, their main competitors for the Eastern Conference crown, each won their opening playoff games on Monday. Both covered the spread, too. A combination of urgency, Orlando injuries and the Magic's poor history of stepping up versus strong competition bodes well for the Bucks covering even as double-digit favorites. The Magic are 3-12 ATS the last 15 times going against above .500 opponents. The Bucks owned the Magic this season going 4-0 with a winning average margin of 17 points. The Bucks not only led the NBA in points per game at 118.7, but also gave up the fewest points in the paint. The formula to beat the Bucks is to be hot from 3-point range and be able to control Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Magic rank 25th in 3-point accuracy and lack a defensive stopper to deal with Antetokounmpo. Aaron Gordon is best suited to guard Antetokounmpo. Gordon, however, is doubtful due to a hamstring injury. Even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent. Not ideal when taking on arguably the NBA's best player. Gordon isn't the only player hurt for Orlando. Jonathan Isaac is out as is backup point guard Michael Carter-Williams. Both are strong defenders. The Magic are likely to fall behind and they lack the necessary firepower to get back into the game. This hurts them, too, if things turn into a fourth quarter garbage affair because the Bucks have an excellent bench. So I doubt Orlando's back-door capability.
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08-17-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
The feeling here is the Celtics have been laying in the weeds. They are going to be dangerous in these playoffs and are a much better team than the 76ers especially with Philly missing injured Ben Simmons and with Joel Embiid once again not 100 percent. Boston is 22-14 away from home. Philadelphia is 12-26. But the 76ers' problems don't end there. The Celtics own edges at four of the five starting spots with Simmons out. Philly's lone matchup edge is Embiid against Boston's lunch-pail centers Daniel Theis and Robert Williams. Embiid suffered a bruised hand last Wednesday, too. So he might be hampered. The Celtics are loaded with athletic wing players. Simmons was the 76ers' best defensive player. Boston can set up mismatches all across the court and savvy coach Brad Stevens knows how to do that especially given extra time. The 76ers can't counter a playmaker like Kemba Walker, nor do they have the scorers to match Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Haywood. The 76ers didn't have enough time in the bubble to build the on-court chemistry needed to beat a high caliber opponent with their new starting lineup of Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Embiid, Josh Richardson and Shake Milton. Those five had limited minutes together during three of their last four seeding games. It doesn't bode well for the 76ers that they surrendered 53 points to T.J. Warren and 51 to Damian Lillard during the seeding games.
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08-16-20 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
The Mariners are back to being who we thought they would be. They are 3-12 in their last 15 games. Seattle has managed only nine runs in its last five games and just three runs during its last three games. Lance McCullers Jr. should be set up for success against the Mariners. McCullers looked great in his comeback from Tommy John surgery during his last start. That came against the Giants this past Tuesday giving up just one hit in seven scoreless innings. McCullers also is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 lifetime starts versus the Mariners. The Astros draw Seattle rookie Justus Sheffield. He has a high ceiling, but is being force-fed this season and taking his lumps. His ERA sits at 5.27.
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08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Lance Lynn isn't pitching this game for Texas. That's a buy sign on Colorado especially with German Marquez taking the mound. Marquez tamed the Rangers when he faced them opening day limiting Texas to one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings. But Lynn beat the Rockies that day, 1-0. Lynn also defeated the Rockies, 3-2 on Friday. Marquez has been solid all season not giving up more than two earned runs during any of his four starts. He has a 2.08 ERA and knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The same can't be said for Kyle Gibson, who is scheduled to make the start here for Texas. Gibson is 4-11 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 20 career interleague starts. This horrible mark doesn't include any games at Coors Fields either. This is the first time Gibson will pitch at the best hitting park in the majors. Gibson surrendered four runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Mariners during his last start five days ago. The Mariners rank 26th in scoring averaging fewer than four runs per game. The Rockies lead the majors in runs scored at 5.5. They also are No. 1 in batting average. So Gibson is stepping way up in class. The Rangers by the way, rank 28th in runs at 3.6. The Rockies are 9-4 during their last 13 home games while the Rangers are 3-9 in their past 12 road contests.
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08-15-20 | Golden Knights -1.5 v. Blackhawks | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights took the Blackhawks' best punch in Game 2 on Thursday and still won, 4-3 in overtime. The Golden Knights blew a multiple goal lead in that game. I don't see that happening here. The Golden Knights' depth, playoff experience and defense is too much for the Blackhawks' mix of a few stars, playoff newcomers and lack of defense. So I'm going to take a plus price on the Golden Knights winning by more than one goal rather than lay heavy juice. When the Golden Knights win, it's often by more than one goal. That has been the case in eight of their last 11 victories.
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08-15-20 | Liberty +9.5 v. Lynx | 64-94 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a big revenge game for New York coach Walt Hopkins, who was a former assistant for the Lynx. Hopkins is a good coach and should have the Liberty fired up after they lost, 92-66, to Minnesota 10 days ago. The Liberty has looked better the last few games as they adjust to being without Sabrina Ionescu. The Lynx are without a key player, too - Syliva Fowles. She suffered a calf injury during an 87-77 loss to the Aces two days ago. That's a huge loss for Minnesota.
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
Portland can be a dangerous No. 8 seed. But the Trail Blazers are not at their best when laying mid-range points. They are 6-13-1 ATS the past 20 times laying points to a below .500 opponent. So I'm liking underdog Memphis in this point spread range. The Grizzlies are in must-win mode and have the young talent to pull off the upset. They lack Portland's experience. That negative, though, is reduced by the matchup being played at a neutral site with no fans. If the Trail Blazers lose, they are not eliminated like the Grizzlies would be with a loss. As the No. 8 seed, the Trail Blazers would get another chance on Sunday to play the Grizzlies. Only then would Portland be eliminated if it were to lose. This is going to be the Trail Blazers' third game in five days. They have played three close games beating the shorthanded 76ers, Mavericks and depleted Nets by a combined seven points. Brooklyn nearly upset the Trail Blazers on Thursday, losing 134-133. The Grizzlies are more dangerous than the Nets. Memphis also will be in action for the third time in five days. However, the Grizzlies are younger and off a confidence-boosting victory against the Bucks on Thursday. The Grizzlies give up three fewer points per game than the Trail Blazers.
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08-14-20 | Sun +6 v. Sky | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
The Sun is playing much better and has short revenge. Connecticut is 3-1 in its last four games after opening 0-5. The Sun's lone defeat during their past four games was against Chicago. The Sky defeated the Sun, 100-93, this past Saturday. The Sky made 55.2 percent of their shots from the floor yet still won by just seven points. On the season, the Sky shoot 49 percent. That leads the league, but still is much lower than 55.2 percent.
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08-13-20 | Blazers v. Nets +10 | 134-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Each team has gone a surprising 5-2 during the reboot. The line is large here because the Trail Blazers clinch the No. 8 seed in the West with a victory while the Nets' playoff spot is locked at No. 7 in the East. The Nets will meet the Raptors in the first round of the playoffs. So the assumption is the Trail Blazers will bury the Nets. That's an assumption I'm not buying into. First, let's examine Portland. The Trail Blazers are in the eighth spot in the West. They are 34-39, which is one-half game ahead of the Grizzlies and Suns. Those two teams are 33-39. The Spurs are still in the hunt at 32-38. The Grizzlies, Suns and Spurs all play afternoon games. The Trail Blazers-Nets is the lone night matchup. So there's a chance the Trail Blazers may already have clinched a playoff spot before they even play. The Grizzlies are facing the Bucks. The Suns are taking on the Mavericks. The Spurs draw the Jazz. Portland's intensity would go way down if its playoff spot already is determined. Portland coach Terry Stotts would likely heavily reduce the playing time of his starters, too, especially CJ McCollum, who is playing with a broken bone in his back. But let's say that scenario doesn't happen. The Nets still are very live here. They have gelled under interim coach Jacque Vaughn producing strong efforts while displaying excellent chemistry. Brooklyn has beaten both the Bucks and Clippers in the Orlando bubble. The Nets held out Caris LeVert, Joe Harris and Jarrett Allen during their victory against the equally depleted Magic two days ago. Word is all three of those players will be back against the Trail Blazers. Vaughn was quoted as saying, "We talked about having some rhythm going into the playoffs. So all guys in that starting unit will be available to start. We'll see how the game progresses, but I'm looking forward to getting some rhythm back on the floor." Damian Lillard draws all the publicity. But LeVert is an excellent player. Harris is underrated and Allen has thrived with increased minutes. The Nets also have been getting a major contribution from unheralded guard Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. He scored 26 points against the Bucks hitting 5 of 7 3-pointers. The Trail Blazers, even with motivation, aren't some dominant team that can easily cover double-digit spreads against spunky underdogs. They beat the Mavericks by three points and 76ers by three points in their last two games. The 76ers played without Ben Simmons and lost Joel Embiid in the first quarter.
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08-13-20 | Lynx +6 v. Aces | 77-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
These two teams are at the next tier below Seattle. Minnesota is the better rebounding team and gives up 4 1/2 fewer points per game than Las Vegas. The Lynx also are better coached. I can see them frustrating the Aces. The Lynx are 5-1 when Sylvia Fowles plays and she is back healthy. The Lynx have covered six of their last nine regular season games as an underdog.
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08-13-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks upset the Oilers in their qualifying series. But they are very much outclassed in this series. That showed in the Golden Knights' 4-1 victory in Game 1. Look for the Golden Knights to roll to another multiple goal victory aided by their top goal and point scorer, Max Pacioretty. He missed Las Vegas' three round-robin games, but played in Game 1. Pacioretty should play better in this game. The Blackhawks don't play clean enough on the backend to keep the Golden Knights from scoring. Las Vegas is averaging 4.5 goals in its last six games. The Golden Knights also have a huge defense advantage with Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb, Alec Martinez and Nate Schmidt.
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08-12-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Canadiens for taking out the Penguins during the qualifying rounds. But now reality strikes for the Canadiens. They draw the Flyers. The Flyers are deserving of being the top seed in the Eastern Conference. But are they deserving of laying 1 1/2 goals against Montreal in this first game matchup? Put it this way: Each of the Flyers' last 10 victories have been by more than one goal. If you discount a 2-0 loss to the Bruins, the Flyers are averaging 4.2 goals during their last 17 games. They are giving up 1.2 goals in their past seven games. The Canadiens have surrendered three or more goals in eight of their last 11 games. They are averaging just 1.8 goals during their past seven games. Clear class difference. So I'm going to turn a high lay price into a huge plus price by banking on the Flyers to win by more than one goal.
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08-11-20 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 140 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights are not the Oilers, the team the Blackhawks took out to reach this point. Unlike the Oilers, the Golden Knights are not brain dead. Las Vegas' case to bury the defensively-challenged Blackhawks is the return of Max Pacioretty, the team's leading scorer. He makes the Golden Knights' power play more deadly and helps Las Vegas field three strong attacking lines. I see a big disparity between these two teams, so I'm laying 1 1/2 goals and taking the Golden Knights on the run line.
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08-11-20 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
The Padres nipped the Dodgers, 2-1, on Monday night. The Dodgers have followed up their last four defeats by winning their next game by multiple runs. San Diego is improved this season. But they are at least two tiers beneath the Dodgers' "A" level. The Padres are 4-13 the last 17 times they've been a road 'dog. Dodgers starter Ross Stripling is solid. He would be a No. 2 type starter on some clubs. I expect him to come in with a solid effort. Garrett Richards continues on his comeback trail. He's 0-1 with a 4.60 ERA. The Dodgers just saw him this past Wednesday and got to him for four runs on five hits in five innings.
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08-10-20 | Pacers v. Heat -3.5 | 92-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
The Heat are going to be healthy for this matchup getting back Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. The teams last met on Jan. 14 and the Heat won by 14 points. There was bad blood in that game between Butler and T.J. Warren. The Heat are in bounce back mood after losing to the Suns while missing Butler and Dragic. Miami has covered 20 of the last 27 times following a loss. Indiana, on the other hand, is off a victory against the Lakers. |
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08-10-20 | Sun -5 v. Dream | 93-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a battle of two disappointing teams. Atlanta has lost five in a row. The Dream players hate their co-owner Kelly Loeffler because of off-court issues. I trust Connecticut more. The Sun have begun to play better going 1-1 in their last two games. They looked very good in beating Dallas, 91-68, this past Thursday. There was no shame when they lost 100-92 to Chicago on Saturday as the Sky could be the most improved team in the league. The Sun took three of four from the Dream last season.
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08-09-20 | Rockets -5.5 v. Kings | 129-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
The Rockets are 3-1 since play resumed. They are playing for playoff seeding and aren't going to give up a game to the Kings, who aren't playing defense and haven't looked good. The Kings realistically know their playoff hopes are gone since they've gone 1-4 in the bubble. The Kings gave up 140 points in a loss to the Pelicans this past Thursday and then lost to the short-handed Nets on Friday. This is their third game in four days. They are dazed and demoralized. Houston has too much firepower and incentive for the Kings to stay close.
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08-09-20 | Mystics -4 v. Fever | 84-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
The defending WNBA champion Mystics are in stop-the-pain mode losing three in a row with the latest loss being an embarrassing defeat to previously winless New York. Washington is down from a year ago, but the Mystics are better than this and will be highly motivated in this matchup after probably their most humiliating loss ever in the Mike Thibault era. Injuries have prevented the Fever from being any good. Victoria Vivians, Natalie Achonwa and Stephanie Mavunga are all dealing with injuries and Erica Wheeler is in COVID-19 protocol.
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08-09-20 | Aces -12 v. Liberty | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
The Aces are playing their best ball with consecutive victories against Dallas, Washington and Los Angeles. The Liberty is a huge letdown spot after stunning the defending WNBA champion Mystics in their last game two days ago. The Liberty pulled off the upset as 16 1/2-point 'dogs. Las Vegas has won the last two games in the series, winning those matchups by an average of 33 1/2 points.
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08-09-20 | Spurs +3 v. Pelicans | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
The prideful Spurs aren't giving up on trying to make the playoffs for a record 23 consecutive seasons. They are still alive, but can't afford to take a loss to the Pelicans. I don't see that happening. San Antonio has a better record than New Orleans. The Spurs have covered four of the last five times they've been an underdog. The Spurs are capable of playing much better than they did in their last game, a 119-111 win against the short-handed Jazz this past Friday. The Pelicans have talent. But they are not well coached. There is a huge coaching disparity between Gregg Popovich and Alvin Gentry. The Pelicans are heavily reliant on Zion Williamson. They have a minus 10-point difference when he's not on the court. Williamson has averaged fewer than 20 minutes a game during the resumption of the season. New Orleans has played a weak schedule. The Pelicans' last three games were against the Wizards, Kings - who they lost 140-125 to - and Grizzlies. They are 1-4 ATS following a victory. This marks their third game in four days. |
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08-08-20 | Orioles v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The world champion Nationals were embarrassed, 11-0, by the lowly Orioles on Friday in the first game of this rivalry interleague series. Look for the Nationals to get their revenge today. Not only were the Nationals humiliated at home, but there is a strong sense of urgency. That loss dropped the Nationals to 4-6. The regular season is just 60 games. Baltimore is 32-82 in its next game following a victory. The Nationals are finally at full strength and have the superior starting pitcher going in a matchup of Thomas Eshelman versus Austin Voth. Eshelman is a fill-in for John Means. So this could turn into a bullpen game for the Orioles. Voth had tremendous success in his previous start against the Orioles. That came last July when he beat them, 8-1, giving up one run on four hits and one walk in six innings.
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08-08-20 | Sky -3 v. Sun | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Chicago is much improved, improved enough to be a contender to win the WNBA title. The Sky, though, are coming off a 96-86 loss to Phoenix from Thursday. So I see a focused, intense effort from Chicago. The Sky also have back Sydney Colson. She had missed the first five games due to COVID-19. The Suns halted their five-game losing streak by rolling past Dallas, 91-68, this past Thursday. So their intensity could be down a notch.
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08-07-20 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
The Dodgers are one of the best teams in the majors. The Giants are one of the worst. LA has nine victories, eight of them by more than one run. San Francisco has eight losses, seven of them by more than one run. So I feel confident in laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to reduce the heavy juice. Dodgers starter Julio Urias has been living up to his considerable promise so far this season. He has a 1.16 lifetime ERA versus the Giants in seven career starts. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is nothing more than an innings-eater. He's been bad again this season with a 9.31 ERA.
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08-07-20 | Liberty v. Mystics -16 | 74-66 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
New York hasn't broken the 67-point barrier since losing star rookie Sabrina Ionescu to an ankle injury in the second quarter two games ago. The Liberty are just lost offensively without Ionescu ranking last in all of the major offensive categories while also committing the most turnovers. The Liberty have the misfortune of catching Washington off consecutive losses. So the Mystics should have their defensive intensity up.
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08-06-20 | Pacers -3 v. Suns | 99-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Both teams are 3-0 since the NBA has resumed. The Pacers are a legitimate playoff team. The Suns are not. Phoenix still could be on Cloud 9 after upsetting the Clippers, 117-115, on Tuesday. T.J. Warren has emerged as a star during bubble play. He'll be sky high to duplicate his huge scoring against the Suns, his former team. The Suns are heavily reliant upon Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. The Pacers have a tough frontline to combat Ayton, an excellent defender in Malcolm Brogdon to help bother Booker and are a much deeper team.
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08-05-20 | Lynx -7.5 v. Liberty | 92-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
This will be the winless Liberty's first game since star player and No. 1 draft pick guard Sabrina Ionescu suffered a serious ankle injury. I don't see the Liberty overcoming her absence, especially leaning so heavily on first-year players. New York managed only 67 points against Phoenix in the game Ionescu was injured in. The Mercury buried the Liberty by 19 points. The Liberty managed just seven assists in that game. Minnesota ranks No. 2 defensively. The Liberty's whole offense was built around Ionescu. So the Lynx should have a much easier time defending.
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08-05-20 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Jazz | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
The Jazz don't have the urgency the Grizzlies do because their playoff ticket is punched. The Grizzlies are putting their postseason chances in peril having gone 0-3 since play resumed. The Grizzlies blew a game to San Antonio, losing by two points. They lost a matchup to Portland in overtime and fell to New Orleans by 10 points two days ago. The Grizzlies got good looks at the basket against the Pelicans. They just couldn't hit their shots. Memphis has the talent and coaching to adjust and fix that. Utah is 2-13-2 ATS the past 17 times it has been favored. That's not a good role for them. The Jazz also have been having problems with their perimeter shooting. They've yet to adequately replace their second-leading scorer and top outside shooter, injured Bojan Bogdanovic.
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08-04-20 | Wings +6.5 v. Sky | 79-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
The Wings need to prove they can beat a good team. This is their chance. Chicago is much improved. But the Sky could be a little flat after an emotional, 88-86, victory against defending WNBA champion Washington in their last game this past Saturday.
The Sky are 7-18 ATS the past 25 times when playing on two days rest. |
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08-04-20 | Mavs -6 v. Kings | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
A combination of horrendous defense and Luke Walton's coaching shortcomings have contributed to the Kings going 0-2 in the bubble. Sacramento has lost 129-120 to the Spurs and 132-116 to the Magic. Both of those opponents shot better than 52 percent from the floor. Dallas also is seeking its first win in the Orlando bubble. The Mavericks fell to the Rockets and were surprised by the Suns. Even though the Mavericks are all but locked into the No. 7 seed in the West, their 0-2 mark doesn't sit well with Dallas coach Rick Carlisle. So both teams should have a sense of urgency for this matchup. I don't just see the Mavericks being a level higher than the Kings, but two levels higher. Dallas has one of the best offenses in the league. There is no chance of the Kings slowing down Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Those are easily the two best players on the court. Carlisle also is a far superior coach to Walton. The Kings surrendered 132 points to Orlando. It's scary to think how many points the Mavericks can put up on them.
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08-03-20 | Phillies v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Yankees minus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.55 (run line) hosting Phillies Coming off eight days of being idle due to Coronavirus concerns, the Phillies are back in action against the best pitcher in the American League if not all of baseball - Gerrit Cole. Good luck with that. This is a huge mismatch and it's priced accurately that way. But the juice can be reduced to a more manageable level by backing the Yankees on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. The Yankees are in the argument for best team in baseball opening 7-1. The Phillies appear way down this season. They've played only three games going 1-2. The three starting pitchers the Phillies have drawn are Sanday Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Robert Dugger. Now their rusty bats have to go against the dominant righty Cole. Philadelphia is 1-8 the last nine times it has faced a righty starter. The Phillies are starting Jake Arrieta, who is on the downside of his career and coming back from an elbow injury. . The Yankees have won six in a row. Cole is riding a career-best 18-game win streak. He hasn't lost in his last 24 starts. New York has been dominant as a home favorite winning 45 of the last 57 times in that role for 79 percent. All of the Yankees' victories except one this season have been by more than one run. |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies +4.5 v. Pelicans | 99-109 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm expecting an intense matchup here as both teams are 0-2 in the reboot and fighting for a playoff spot. So I'll take the points. Yes, the Grizzlies played Sunday against the Spurs, losing 108-106 on two free throws at the end. Memphis also fell in overtime to Portland. This marks their third game in four days and second in two days. Perhaps that's why this line is inflated in my view. But the Grizzlies are a young team and have fresh legs following the long layoff. Fatigue shouldn't be a factor this early in the Orlando bubble. The Grizzlies actually have excelled in this situation covering seven of the past eight times they played without rest. The Pelicans have loads of talent. But they commit too many turnovers, lack defense, are not well coached and Zion Williamson has had his minutes reduced. Williamson has played just 15 and 14 minutes during the Pelicans' first two games of the resumed season. Not only is this good from an opposition standpoint, but Williamson's lack of playing time has kept New Orleans from finding its rhythm after the long break.
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08-02-20 | Mavs -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The Mavericks are several tiers above the Suns. They are a tremendous scoring team and are a bit below-the-radar even though they are 40-28. Dallas has lost by four or fewer points in six of its last eight defeats. Dallas still is steaming from its last game, a 153-149 overtime loss to the Rockets two days ago. The Mavericks blew a 3-point lead with three seconds left in regulation. Dallas is 20-7-1 ATS following a loss. The Mavericks now step way down in class. The Suns were only invited to Orlando to fill out the number of teams. On top of this, Phoenix is a bit fat and happy after opening the rebooted season with a 125-112 victory against the Wizards, who are the worst team in the reboot. The Suns lack the Mavericks' depth especially with Kelly Oubre Jr. and Aron Baynes both out. Phoenix is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games.
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08-02-20 | Rays -1.5 v. Orioles | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
It's a statistic rarely asked. What is Baltimore's record following a victory? The answer is 31-81. Not only are the Orioles off a victory against the Rays, but they've actually defeated Tampa Bay in consecutive games. I don't see a sweep happening and will lay 1 1/2 runs to reduce the juice to support this decision. The Rays are in circle-the-wagons mode with a four-game losing streak. This wouldn't be crucial if this were a normal season. But as we know, the season is just 60 games. So Tampa Bay absolutely can't drop another one to the Orioles. Yonny Chirinos is reliable. He should be effective against the Orioles for the first few innings. The Rays then have a big bullpen advantage especially with Baltimore carrying a high bullpen fatigue rating. Look for the Rays to jump on Baltimore's journeyman starter Tommy Milone, who was bad filling in for John Means on opening night against the Red Sox and who has a 6.75 ERA lifetime versus the Rays. That includes five starts.
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08-01-20 | 76ers v. Pacers +5.5 | Top | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Talent-wise, the 76ers do hold an edge on the Pacers especially with Indiana missing emerging star Domantas Sabonis. He's out due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot. But there other factors that point to this being a very close game. Each team is 39-26. So it's an important matchup for playoff seeding. A loss wouldn't be devastating for the 76ers, though, because they drew a very easy schedule in this reboot of the season. Philadelphia's next four games following this one are against the Wizards, Magic, Trail Blazers and Suns. None of those teams has a winning record. The 76ers were practically unbeatable at home. But away from Wells Fargo Center, Philly went just 10-24. There are many questions for the 76ers such as: Can they be trusted as mid-sized neutral site chalk against a solid playoff team like the Pacers? Is Shake Milton a reliable point guard? Can Ben Simmons make the transition to power forward and be as effective without handling the ball so much? Is Joel Embiid fully healthy after missing the 76ers' last two scrimmages with a strained right calf? The Pacers have solid depth and Victor Oladipo is expected to play. He was just rounding into his All-Star form when league play was halted. |
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07-31-20 | Kings v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
The Spurs are in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1997. This is a must-win spot for them. Sacramento needs to win, too, to keep its outside chances alive. San Antonio is 27-36. Sacramento is 28-36. The Spurs' best big man, seven-time All Star LaMarcus Aldridge, is out. The Kings' top big man, Marvin Bagley III, is out. Sacramento's best player is DeAaron Fox. He leads the team in points, assists and steals. Fox has been dealing with a sprained ankle. He may not be 100 percent. Certainly he's going to be rusty. Center Jakob Poeltl has looked good when Aldridge has been missing. The Spurs actually were outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions when Poeltl was on the floor instead of Aldridge. This is the first game back for each team since March. It's a no-brainer that Gregg Popovich gives the Spurs a monster coaching edge against Luke Walton especially in these circumstances. The Kings are much better in an underdog role. They are just 5-12 (29 percent) the past 17 times when laying points.
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07-31-20 | Liberty +5 v. Dream | 78-84 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
I consider this to be more of a pick'em type of game so I'm glad to accept this many points. Atlanta is surrendering 97.5 points. The Dream could be without two of their key players. They are 0-5 ATS the last five times they've been favored. New York is inexperienced, but has the probable rookie-of-the-year in Sabrina Ionescu, who is a fantastic scorer. The winless Liberty should be primed for an all-out effort having lost to Seattle and Dallas. The Liberty beat the Dream two of three last season, including the last one, 71-63, at Atlanta.
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07-30-20 | Clippers +3 v. Lakers | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 137 h 28 m | Show |
I believe the better team is the underdog especially with the Lakers being without guards Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley. The Clippers are at full strength and have the strongest bench in the league. The clubs met three times this season. Every game was at Staples Center, which is the home floor for each of them. So neither team had a home court edge. This is significant because they are now playing at neutral site Orlando. The Clippers beat the Lakers two of three. The Clippers are 7-1 during their last eight games with that lone defeat occurring to the Lakers, 112-103. Note the Clippers were 2 1/2-point favorites in that contest. So the line value is obvious. Bradley and Rondo played significant roles in that win. Bradley had one of his best games of the season with 24 points while Rondo dished off seven assists. Bradley is an ace defender so his big scoring game was an added bonus for the Lakers. Bradley, though, isn't playing because of Coronavirus concerns and Rondo is sidelined following thumb surgery.
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07-30-20 | Sky v. Lynx +5.5 | 81-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a strong effort from Minnesota after it didn't play well in a 90-66 loss to Seattle on Tuesday. Chicago has been a nice surprise opening 2-0. The Sky are improved, but I don't see them in Seattle's class. The Lynx swept the Sky last season winning all three matchups. Minnesota has covered four of the last five in the series.
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07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
I'm going to take an early position on this game by locking into this number not knowing for sure if Zion Williamson is going to play. Even if Williamson is unavailable, I still like the Pelicans to cover this short number. New Orleans has all of its players healthy. The Pelicans still have loads of star power with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball, who was playing his finest ball when the season shut down. The Pelicans have far more motivation than Utah. The Pelicans can't afford to lose. The Jazz can. Utah already has its playoff ticket punched even if it were to lose every game in Orlando during this reboot. So the Jazz are using these reboot games to tinker and fine tune for down-the-road playoff competition. Winning is not paramount to them at this stage. The Jazz need to find scoring having lost their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic, for the season due to a wrist injury. Utah is going to greatly miss Bogdanovic's long-range shooting and marksmanship. There's also the question if Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, their two best players, can get along. They were feuding following the season being postponed after Gobert tested for Coronvirus. Their games do not complement each other. The Pelicans won all of their scrimmages, including impressively defeating the Bucks, 124-103. They have looked crisp and sharp.
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07-29-20 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | 3-0 | Win | 109 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
I like the Brewers so much going with their best starter after playing poorly on Tuesday that I'll take them on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs to get much better juice. The Brewers have owned the Pirates beating them 20 of the last 27 times, but blew a 6-2 lead in losing to Pittsburgh, 8-6, last night. The Brewers were disgusted with that defeat knowing they are the far superior team. Now they have Brandon Woodruff going. He was 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 143 strikeouts in 121 2/3 innings last season emerging as Milwaukee's ace. Woodruff was hitting 99 mph on his fastball opening day and is 2-0 career-wise versus the Pirates with 24 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings. I consider Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove more as an innings-eater rather than a respectable starter. The Brewers own a huge bullpen edge, too.
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07-28-20 | Sparks -4.5 v. Sky | 78-96 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
The Sparks are the superior team and draw the Sky in a letdown spot after Chicago nipped Las Vegas, 88-86, two days ago by scoring the final 11 points of the game. Las Vegas had eliminated the Sky from the playoffs last season. LA opened in impressive style rolling past Phoenix, 99-76, this past Saturday.
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07-27-20 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Kendall Graveman is one of my least favorite starters. The combination of Graveman making his first start in two years after being out last year recovering from Tommy John surgery and the Astros coming off a loss puts me on Houston. I see this as a kill spot for the Astros - as does the oddsmaker - so I'm laying the run line to reduce the vigorish. Houston had defeated Seattle 15 straight times until losing, 7-6, to the Mariners on Sunday. The Astros also are 12-1 (92 percent) the past 13 times hosting the Mariners. Graveman had a 7.60 ERA when he last pitched in 2018. Houston is going with Josh James, one of its many talented young pitchers. James had 100 strikeouts in just 61 1/3 innings last year. He is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA in four career starts. James knows he could have a big role if Justin Verlander has a serious elbow injury. The Mariners are in full rebuild mode while the Astros are one of the best teams in baseball. |
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07-26-20 | Tigers v. Reds -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Trevor Bauer came close to reaching elite status with the Indians before taking a huge step backward after going to the Reds last season. The right-handed Bauer is in a contract year and has much to prove. Unlike other ballplayers, Bauer attacked the extended offseason with an intense training regime. Bauer's comeback begins against the team that scored the fewest runs in the majors last year, the Tigers. Detroit once again could be the worst team in the majors. The Tigers are 6-16 in their last 22 interleague road games and have lost 64 of the past 82 times (22 percent) they've faced a righty starter. The Tigers are starting Spencer Turnbull, who was 3-17 with a 4.61 ERA last year. Turnbull compiled some of these bad numbers at pitcher-friendly Commerica Park, too. The Reds' Great American Ball Park, by contrast, is one of the best hitting parks in the majors.
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07-25-20 | Tigers v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
Luis Castillo is a serious Cy Young Award candidate and the Reds appear to be one of the most improved teams in baseball. The Tigers remain the Tigers - a team that went 47-114 last year and had the worst offense in the league. Detroit has dropped 23 of its last 31 interleague road games. I don't see Ivan Nova changing that trend. Nova, the Tigers' scheduled starter, doesn't miss many bats. That's dangerous against a slugging Reds team that has added power hitters Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas and is playing in their offensive-friendly ballpark.
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07-24-20 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
The Dodgers are the best team in the National League, if not all of baseball. The Giants could be the worst. It's nearly a no-brainer to just back the Dodgers on the run line thus avoiding laying heavy juice. It easily worked on Thursday with LA winning by seven runs even though Clayton Kershaw didn't pitch. The Dodgers have a dominant offense. It doesn't matter who the Giants start on the mound. San Francisco's bullpen is extremely weak, too, having lost its best relievers from last season. LA's scheduled starter, Ross Stripling, is solid. The key with Stripling is he has excellent control. The Giants are without three of their key hitters with Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria. That makes their already weak lineup even weaker.
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03-11-20 | Kansas State v. TCU -1.5 | Top | 53-49 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
TCU was 2-0 versus Kansas State during the regular season. I don't see that pattern changing in their Big 12 Conferernce Tournament game. The Horned Frogs have played better down the stretch even defeating Baylor three games ago. TCU has a chance to draw an NIT bid with a good tournament showing. Kansas State is not going anywhere with a 10-21 record, 3-15 mark in the Big 12. The Wildcats actually are a little fat and happy having halted a 10-game losing streak with a 79-63 home win against Iowa State this past Saturday on their senior day. TCU is the better and more motivated squad. The Horned Frogs also have revenge incentive. Kansas State defeated them, 70-61, in the Big 12 Tournament last year.
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03-11-20 | CS Sacramento v. Weber State +4 | 62-54 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
These are two evenly matched teams - each 8-12 - playing at a neutral site in the first round of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. So I am happy to accept this many points with Weber State. The Wildcats average nearly seven points more per game than Sacramento State. The Hornets are the better defensive team, but they enter tourney play giving up 76 and 79 points during their last two games, losses to Portland State and Montana. Weber State beat Sacramento State during the most recent meeting, 70-66, as 1-point home 'dogs on Feb. 6.
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03-10-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
The Nets are a pesky underdog. They have covered five of the last six times getting points and are in an excellent spot to cover the spread again. The Lakers are coming off impressive victories against the Bucks this past Friday and rival Clippers two days ago. The Lakers host the Rockets on Thursday in a much bigger matchup than this one. That makes this a major letdown situation for the Lakers. Brooklyn is playing its second game under interim coach Jacque Vaughn having opened his era with a 110-107 home win against the Bulls this past Sunday. One of Vaughn's changes from former Nets coach Kenny Atkinson was starting and giving more minutes to center DeAndre Jordan at the expense of Jarrett Allen. Jordan helped the Nets outrebound the Bulls, 50-31. He is a better defensive player, rebounder and shot-blocker than Allen. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to receive all the attention, but Jordan knows the Lakers well from his many years with the Clippers. Brooklyn has an underrated backcourt, too, with Spencer Dimwiddie and Caris LeVert, who is averaging 28.8 points in his last four games.
Tuesday Free Play Timberwolves plus 12 1/2 at Rockets It has been eight years since the Timberwolves beat the Rockets in Houston. I don't expect Minnesota to end that 13-game road losing streak to the Rockets. I do expect, though, the Timberwolves to hang within single digits. Houston isn't playing nearly well enough to be laying this many points to any NBA opponent. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing to the Knicks on the road by two, falling to the Clippers by 15 at home, dropping a road game to the Hornets by nine points and getting blown out at home by 20 points to the Magic two days ago. The Rockets have been cold with their 3-point shooting and are minus-36 rebounding during their losing streak. That's the danger of going with the smallest lineup in the NBA. Houston also could be minus Eric Gordon, its third-leading scorer. He's questionable with a knee injury. The major part of my handicap is a fade on the Rockets. But the Timberwolves do offer a top-10 offense. They have produced at least 115 points in 11 of their last 14 games. D'Angelo Russell is an accomplished scorer and shooting guard Malik Beasley is one of the more underrated players in the league producing nine 20-point performances in 13 games since coming from Denver. Sure there's a chance the Rockets take their frustrations out on the Timberwolves. Keep in mind, though, the Rockets are playing their third game in four days and have a far bigger matchup on deck against the Lakers on Thursday. Houston is not a deep team either. So even in a worst case scenario for the Timberwolves of the Rockets getting things together, the backdoor should swing open if late-game garbage time should occur. |
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03-10-20 | Illinois-Chicago +4.5 v. Northern Kentucky | 62-71 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Illinois Chicago is on a tremendous roll in the Horizon League tournament with three wins and covers, including a highly impressive 73-56 victory against top-ranked Wright State on Monday. There was nothing flukish about the Flames' win as the they built a 27-point lead versus Wright State. I'm going to ride with the Flames here in the title game. These two teams met on Feb. 16 at Northern Kentucky. It was no contest. Illinois Chicago destroyed the Norse by 30 points. Now the Flames are peaking and taking points on top of it. Count me in.
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03-10-20 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +1.5 | 81-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh has a history of playing poorly at the end of the season and this year has proven to be no exception. The Panthers are 2-10 in their last 12 games. They've lost their last seven games. They have scored 57 points or fewer in five of their past seven games, while giving up 72 or more points in four of their past five games. Wake Forest showed its ability posting late February victories against Duke and Notre Dame. Pittsburgh lost by eight points to Notre Dame and by 12 points to Duke, although both of those defeats were on the road while Wake Forest's victories versus those two opponents were at home. Still, in a pick type of betting line at a neutral site, the Demon Deacons are the team I want going for me. Wake Forest beat Pittsburgh, 69-65, on the road in the lone meeting this season. The Demon Deacons won despite falling behind 22-6 during the first half. It was Wake Forest's fourth straight victory versus Pittsburgh.
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03-09-20 | Coastal Carolina +5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 65-70 | Push | 0 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina averages nearly 10 more points per game than Appalachian State. That showed when the teams last met 10 days ago at Appalachian State. The Chanticleers won, 84-77, as 4-point road 'dogs. The Chanticleers average nearly 80 points on the road. The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home agmes and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when favored. I really like Coastal Carolina point guard DeVante Jones. I also like the way the Chanticleers stepped up defensively in their last game nipping Texas-Arlington, 63-62, as 5.5-point road 'dogs in their first round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game this past Saturday. The Mountaineers have short revenge, but Coast Carolina certainly isn't going to lack incentive knowing it needs to win this Sun Belt Conference Tourney to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
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03-08-20 | Raptors -5.5 v. Kings | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Credit to Sacramento for not giving up on trying to make the playoffs. But the Raptors are two levels higher than the Kings and are in a good situational spot even though they are the road team. The Kings are coming off an impressive, 123-111, road victory against the Trail Blazers on Saturday night. Sacramento, however, carries a heavy fatigue rating. Not only are they playing without rest, but this marks their seventh game in 11 days. Toronto has been idle the past two days. The Raptors are 14-2 the last 16 times they've played a below .500 opponent. Serge Ibaka returned to the lineup in the Raptors' last game after being out the last three games with a knee injury. There's a chance the Raptors could get Marc Gasol and Fred VanVleet back for this game.
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03-07-20 | Jazz v. Pistons +8.5 | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Utah is in a letdown spot and carries a heavy fatigue rating. The Jazz are coming off a huge 99-94 road win against the Celtics last night. Now they are playing their fourth road game in six days. The Jazz have not been good as favorites going 3-11-2 ATS the past 16 times laying points. The Pistons are down Derrick Rose. But they are expected to get back guard Bruce Brown. They acquired Jordan McRae to boost their backcourt and have been getting strong performances recently from guard Brandon Knight and big man Christian Wood. Detroit has been idle the past two days. So the Pistons hold a definite scheduling advantage.
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03-07-20 | Valparaiso +3.5 v. Missouri State | 89-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm surprised to see Missouri State favored by this large amount in what I consider to be a pick type matchup. Both teams have been playing well, but I like Valparaiso's momentum. The Crusaders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and have won six of their past eight games. Their adrenalin should be pumped after pulling off an upset overtime victory against Loyola on Friday. Valparaiso hosted Missouri State on Feb. 25 and easily won, 89-74.
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03-07-20 | Penn State -7 v. Northwestern | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Penn State needs to get well and Northwestern is the perfect remedy. The Nittany Lions are in a kill mood after losing four of their last five games, including a 79-71 loss to 17th-ranked Michigan State this past Tuesday. Before meeting the Spartans, the Nittany Lions played at Iowa, hosted Rutgers, played at Indana and hosted Illinois. Now they are dropping way down in class. Northwestern has lost 13 of its last 14 games with its one win during this span coming in overtime against Nebraska when the Cornhuskers missed a mind-boggling 22 of 30 free throws. Each of the Wildcats' last six losses have been by eight or more points. Northwestern is on pace to lose its most Big Ten games in 30 years. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games, too. The teams met on Feb. 15 and Penn State had no problem handling Northwestern winning, 77-61.
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03-07-20 | UTEP +3.5 v. Rice | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
UTEP is playing well winning and covering its last three games. The Miners have held their past three foes to an average of 58 points. I trust their defense more than Rice's defense. The Owls have surrendered at least 68 points in 24 of their last 27 games. The Miners own the best low-post player on the court in Bryson Williams. The teams just met on Feb. 22 at UTEP. The Miners won, 68-62, despite shooting just 39 percent from the field and Williams scoring only 10 points, which is seven below his average. I see UTEP shooting better and Williams have a stronger performance.
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