Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-05-22 | Calgary v. Ottawa +5.5 | 17-3 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 47 m | Show | |
Ottawa has a very misleading 1-6 record. The Redblacks have lost five games by a combined 21 points. They lost twice to powerful 8-0 Winnipeg by an average of 4.5 points. Calgary just played Winnipeg twice and lost by seven points in each game against the Blue Bombers. The Redblacks have their confidence up after getting that much needed first win against Toronto this past Sunday. Caleb Evans was effective for the Redblacks completing 24-of-29 passes for 286 yards and two TD's against the Argonauts. Evans has steadily been improving. Calgary could be without its star running back, Ka'Deem Carey because of a hamstring injury. Carey is the second-leading rusher in the CFL and is tied for the most running TD's with five. |
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08-01-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
The Orioles have been the biggest money-maker this season for bettors. They are 16-7 in their last 23 games. That mark goes up to 21-4 in their last 25 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs, an 84 percent winning percentage. Texas is 5-10 in its last 15 games. So I'll ride the Orioles as they move on to Texas to face the Rangers in a pitching matchup of Spencer Watkins versus Jon Gray. Nothing against Gray, who has been pitching well for the Rangers. But Watkins is in good form with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts and Baltimore holds a bullpen edge. Orioles relievers have a fourth-best ERA mark of 3.05 compared to the Rangers' bullpen ERA of 3.79. |
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07-31-22 | Ottawa +5 v. Toronto | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 30 h 35 m | Show | |
Hard to believe Ottawa is 0-6. The Redblacks have only been out of one game. All but one of their losses was by more than seven points. Ottawa is improving each week and due for positive regression. Ottawa QB Caleb Evans has been improving as he gets more comfortable running the Redblacks' offense with starter Jeremiah Masoli out. Jaelon Acklin has the second-most receiving yardage in the league and Richie Leone has the second-highest punting average in the CFL at 48.2. Those are key weapons for the Redblacks. Toronto has taken advantage of some scheduling breaks to go 3-2. But the Argos are not impressive. They have been outscored by 25 points and are minus 8 in turnover ratio. Toronto's last two wins were both against Saskatchewan and in one of those contests the Roughriders were short-handed due to a COVID outbreak. You have to go back nine games to last season to find the last time the Argos were favored by more than three points. They are 1-5 ATS the last six times they've been chalk. |
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07-31-22 | A's v. White Sox -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
Sure the White Sox have been a disappointment at 50-50 through their first 100 games. But the A's are the worst team in the American League at 39-64. What the White Sox have going in this game is one of the most lopsided pitching matchups of the season - Adam Oller versus Dylan Cease. Cease has become a dominant pitcher with a 10-4 record, 2.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He's tied for the third-most strikeouts in the AL. Cease hasn't permitted a run in his last 20 2/3 innings. He faces a pathetic A's attack that ranks last in batting average and OPS and is second-to-last in runs. Oller could be the worst starter in the American League. Here are his numbers: 32 2/3 innings - 39 hits, 29 earned runs, 21 walks and nine homers allowed. That translates to a gory 8.07 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. So, yeah, I expect the White Sox to win this game by multiple runs. |
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07-31-22 | Mercury v. Liberty +1.5 | 69-89 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Phoenix is playing better winning three of its last four games. But all of those games were at home. The Mercury have to make the long cross-country journey to face New York, which desperately needs a victory in hopes of making the playoffs, being two games out from being the last seed. This is a day game, too, which makes it even rougher on Phoenix. The Mercury haven't played in an Eastern Standard Time Zone game since mid-June. Phoenix is 4-11 on the road this season. The teams met on July 7 in Phoenix and the Mercury won, 84-81. Home court should translate into a victory this time around for the Liberty. |
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07-29-22 | Aces v. Fever +14 | 93-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
The Aces are off perhaps their most satisfying victory of the season beating the defending champion Sky, 93-83, in Chicago on Tuesday. At stake was the Commissioner's Cup, which the Aces won for the first time in franchise history, along with establishing who is the team to beat this season in the WNBA. It was a monster victory for Las Vegas. So the Aces can be excused if they take Indiana - the worst team in the league - too lightly. The Fever have lost 12 in a row, a young team clearly in rebuild mode. The key question here is can the Aces still cover this large of a road number even if they play well below their standards in such an obvious letdown spot? I say no. Las Vegas is 3-8 ATS the last 11 times it has played a below .500 opponent. The teams met eight days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won that game by less than this point spread, 90-77. Indiana has covered four of its past seven games. So the Fever still are trying. They have two talented players in Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith. The Fever should be rested and ready having not played since last Sunday. |
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07-28-22 | Royals v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
Back at Yankee Stadium for the first time since July 17, the Yankees should be in a mood for a killing after getting swept in their two-game series by the cross-town Mets. The good news for the Yankees is they don't have to travel like the Royals. They also don't have to face Max Scherzer like they did on Wednesday. The Yankees draw righty Brady Singer, who would be a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter for many teams. The Yankees are 41-19 the past 60 times they've gone against a right-handed starter. Jameson Taillon goes for New York. He's been better at Yankee Stadium where he's 6-1 with a 3.49 ERA. The Royals' bats have gone cold. Kansas City lost its last two games to the Angels getting shut out by rookie Janson Junk in a 4-0 loss on Wednesday and by Jose Suarez, 6-0, on Tuesday. Taillon and the Yankee bullpen, which has the second-lowest ERA in the majors, are superior to those Angels and their relief pitchers. The Royals are likely without two of their best players with catcher Salvador Perez out and shortstop Bobby Witt having missed the last three games due to a hamstring injury. Note that of the Royals' last 10 defeats, all but one have come by multiple runs. |
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07-28-22 | Lynx +2 v. Dream | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
This is a crucial game for the Lynx. They trail the Dream by 2 1/2 games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA. The Lynx have just seven games left. But they have hope if they win here because their next game is against the Sparks on Sunday. The Sparks are 12-15 and going through turmoil after cutting center Liz Cambage. A big key here is Sylvia Fowles is expected to play for Minnesota. She missed the Lynx's last game this past Sunday against Connecticut. She's the Lynx's leading scorer and rebounder. Minnesota has lost three in a row. Two of those defeats, though, came to Connecticut. The other occurred to Washington. Now the Lynx is stepping down in class. The Lynx are 5-1 ATS the last six times they've gone against a below .500 team. Minnesota has covered four of its last five away contests. The Lynx lost to the Sky by three points and to the Aces by one point during their past five road games. Those are the two best teams in the WNBA.
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07-24-22 | Wings -6 v. Fever | 96-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
Dallas is 11-15 and hoping to land a playoff berth. The Wings can't take a loss to this opponent. Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA at 5-24. The Fever are in free fall. They've lost 11 in a row - all by seven or more points with the averaging losing margin being 14.5 points. The Wings were competitive in their last two games taking on the defending champion Sky in a home-road series. The Sky have the best record in the league at 21-6. Now the Wings are stepping down in class. They played the Fever a month ago and buried them, 94-68. I have to believe the Wings are going to win this game. The Fever haven't been competitive. So I'll lay the points. |
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07-22-22 | Storm -6 v. Mercury | 78-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Phoenix is the second-worst ATS team in the WNBA. The Mercury also rank second-to-last in rebounding and defense. They are a small, guard-oriented team that is without one of their better backcourt players, Diamond DeShields. She remains sidelined with a hip injury. The Mercury also have been negatively impacted psychologically with the absence of their star center, Brittney Griner, who remains in legal difficulty in Russia. Both teams need this game. The Storm is one of the elite teams in the league. They are playing for playoff seeding and coming off a 78-74 road loss to the defending champion Sky this past Wednesday. Seattle was outrebounded by 10 boards in that game. The defeat halted a four-game Seattle win streak. The Storm have covered the past four times following a loss. They also will have a rare rebounding edge against Phoenix. It's a huge game for Tina Charles, who came to Seattle after Phoenix released her. The former All-Star did not have a pleasant stay with the Mercury. I don't trust the Mercury even though they are one game out of the playoffs. They rarely beat an elite team and fail to close against weaker opponents. Phoenix could be rusty, too, having not played since last Sunday. The Mercury are 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on three or more days rest. |
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07-19-22 | Dream +12.5 v. Aces | Top | 92-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Las Vegas is back on track going 3-0 following All-Star break. The Aces' three victories all came on the road with two coming against the Liberty in revenge mode and the other occurring this past Sunday against the Sun in a major challenge. Now the Aces return home to face the lowly Dream. I see a letdown coming from the Aces. So I'll take double-digit points with Atlanta. The Aces have failed to cover in their last six home games. They are 2-4 SU during these recent home games. Las Vegas often is overpriced. The Aces have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 games overall. Atlanta has covered the past four times versus Western Conference teams. The Dream have a winning point spread road record. The Dream defeated the Mercury, 85-75, this past Sunday in Phoenix. That was a huge morale boost for the Dream and showed they have quality reserves as their leading scorer, Rhyne Howard, Nia Coffey and Monique Billings all missed that game due to injuries. I'm not worried if Coffey and Billings are out. Howard is the Dream's star and she's questionable. It's a nice bonus if she does play, but I'll still take the Dream with this many points regardless of her status. |
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07-19-22 | Liberty +8 v. Sun | 63-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Connecticut is right there with Chicago, Las Vegas, Washington and Seattle among the top five teams in the WNBA. There's a dropoff after those teams. But this is too many points for the Sun to be laying especially since they won't have Jonquel Jones. She leads Connecticut in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Jones tested positive for COVID-19. New York has been very tough on the road going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS during its last seven away contests. During this span, the Liberty has posted straight-up victories as double-digit underdogs against the Aces, Sun and Mystics. The Liberty doesn't lack for talent with Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard among the best players in the league. New York shouldn't lack motivation either after an embarrassing 34-point home loss to the Aces this past Thursday. While the Liberty was idle for the past four days, the Sun last played two days ago in an emotional home game against the Aces. This is Connecticut's fourth game in seven days and they are short-handed without Jones. |
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07-17-22 | Brewers v. Giants -1.5 | 5-9 | Win | 125 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
Logan Webb is dominant at home. He has a 2.37 home ERA and a 1.80 ERA during his last three overall starts. I don't see the Brewers staying within a run of the Giants going with Jason Alexander on the mound and with their star closer, Josh Hader, going through his roughest stretch. Alexander has a 4.73 ERA. He's been fortunate to have an ERA under 5.00 considering opposing batters are hitting .314 off him. Alexander's ERA in his last three starts is 7.94. |
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07-17-22 | Lynx v. Mystics -4.5 | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Minnesota has been playing better. However, this is just a brutal spot for the Lynx. It's their fourth game in six days. Word has it, too, that the Lynx had airline trouble on their way back from Indiana after beating the Fever two days ago. The Mystics had won four of their last five until losing three days ago to the Mercury in Phoenix. The Mystics are rested and ready now. They have the top defense in the league and also the best point spread record at 16-10 ATS.
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07-16-22 | Sky -4.5 v. Wings | 89-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Both teams are in action for the third time in six days. That's a heavy load in the WNBA. Chicago, though, is the best team in the league. One reason why the defending champion Sky are so good is their deep bench. Chicago is off double-digit victories against the Dream and Sparks aided by its deep roster. The Sky are 8-1 in their last nine games. The 18-6 Sky now draw another below .500 opponent in the Wings. The Sky won't play again for four more days. So they should be focused. Candace Parker certainly should be motivated. She was held scoreless for the first time in her 15-year WNBA career in Chicago's last game. |
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07-15-22 | A's +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
Injuries and a brutal travel schedule have left the Astros extremely vulnerable for Friday's home game against the rested A's. Oakland was idle Thursday. Houston wasn't. The Astros had to go extra innings to nip the Angels late Thursday night in Anaheim. This means the Astros didn't return to Houston until the wee hours of this morning. Because of this tough travel schedule, Astros manager Dusty Baker said he will be resting a number of his starters. So at the very least, don't expect to see veteran catcher Martin Maldonado, Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel in Houston's starting lineup. Remember the Astros already are without injured Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley. Altuve suffered a bruised leg on Friday so he's almost certainly out. The pitching matchup is lefty Cole Irvin versus Jose Urquidy, who is replacing original listed starter Jake Odorizzi. The key is can the lowly A's still beat the Astros on the road even if Houston fields a JV type lineup? Yes. Oakland actually has played much better on the road. The A's are 4-5 in their last nine games. They would be 8-4 in their last 12 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs. Irvin is a crafty southpaw. He doesn't miss many bats, but he's tough to score against. He has a 3.32 ERA. The Astros rank just 21st in batting average versus lefties. Urquidy has a 4.08 ERA. The A's just faced him a week ago scoring three earned runs off him. So they are familiar with Urquidy. If the Astros decide to go back to Odorizzi, they'll be going with a pitcher whose home ERA is 4.41. The A's are the worst-hitting team in the majors. But their offense has shown some spark lately averaging eight runs per game during their last three games. The Astros may hold back their closer and best reliever, Ryan Pressly, after he pitched two innings on Friday. Houston would be 4-6 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. |
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07-15-22 | Lynx -3 v. Fever | 87-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Minnesota is in must-win mode after losing, 92-87, at home to the Wings on Thursday. The Lynx are 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. The Lynx also have double revenge motivation. They are a lot stronger now with Sylvia Fowles back in the lineup. Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA with a 5-20 record. Done for the season, the Fever are going with young players in rebuild mode. They have the worst defense in the league. |
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07-13-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
I'm not going to land on the A's very much. But with Paul Blackburn getting the start and Texas not playing well, I'll get involved with Oakland on the run line at plus 1 1/2 runs. Blackburn is the A's best pitcher. He's 6-4 with a 3.36 ERA. Blackburn has been tremendous on the road where he's 5-0 with a 1.28 ERA. Oakland has played better on the road. The A's are eight games below .500 away while a staggering 21 games below .500 when home. If given 1 1/2 runs, the A's would be 8-3 in their last 11 games. The Rangers are going with Jon Gray, who is 5-4 with a 4.03 ERA. Gray is never going to live up to the one-time hype of being a No. 1 type starter. He's been decent lately, but I would take Blackburn above him especially given how poorly Texas has been playing. The Rangers are 4-8 in their last dozen games. They would be 3-9 during this span if giving up 1 1/2 runs. |
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07-09-22 | Winnipeg v. BC -3 | Top | 43-22 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 39 m | Show |
Both Winnipeg and British Columbia are unbeaten. But statistically and situational-wise these teams are not that close. BC is much superior. The Lions rank first in the CFL in the major categories in both offense AND defense. They have allowed just two sacks in three games. Nathan Rourke has opened the season with the highest completion percentage in any three-game span in CFL history going 88-for-105 for 83.8 percent. The Blue Bombers average fewer than 22 points. They rank second-to-last in yards and are last in pass defense. They were fortunate to nip 1-2 Toronto last week in a 23-22 victory. The Lions average the most yards in the league while giving up the fewest yards per game. They are the No. 1 passing and scoring team. Their defense is No. 1 against the pass and No. 2 against the run. Winnipeg is getting a lot of respect based on its 4-0 record and being the defending Grey Cup champions. Right now, though, BC is the best team in the league. The spot sets up well, too, for the Lions as the Blue Bombers will be making the 1,318-mile, cross-country journey. |
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07-08-22 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
The talent-rich Dodgers are 53-29. Of those 53 wins, 48 have come by more than one run. So if the Dodgers are going to beat the Cubs here - and they are a strong favorite - there's a 90.5 percent chance they will win by multiple runs based on their previous games. |
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07-07-22 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The talent-rich Dodgers are 52-29. Of those 52 wins, 47 have come by more than one run. So if the Dodgers are going to beat the Cubs here - and they are a monster favorite - there's a 90 percent chance they will win by multiple runs based on their previous games. LA is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cubs are 4-10 in their past 14 road games. The Cubs have lost six in a row to the Dodgers. Not only do the Dodgers have a huge lineup edge, but also in starting pitchers with Mark Leiter Jr. going against Cy Young Award candidate Tony Gonsolin. Leiter was out of the majors the last three years until surfacing this season. He has a 4.85 ERA and is only in Chicago's rotation because of injuries to other pitchers. Gonsolin is bidding to become the first 11-game winner this season His ERA of 1.54 is the best in the majors. |
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07-05-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Pirates | 2-5 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Coming off a rare loss followed by a day off, the Yankees should be primed to bury the Pirates. New York has the best record in baseball. Pittsburgh is 15 games below .500. The Yankees go for their 15th win in their last 21 games with former Pirate Jameson Taillon on the mound. He's been outstanding this season with a 9-1 record and 3.32 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 2.70 when pitching on the road away from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Certainly Taillon won't lack motivation against his ex-team. Pittsburgh starter Jose Quintana has turned into a journeyman. The Pirates are his fourth team in the last three years. The Yankees have scored the second-most runs in the league. The Pirates rank 28th in runs. |
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07-04-22 | Winnipeg -4.5 v. Toronto | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This was supposed to be a down season for two-time defending CFL champion Winnipeg. But the Blue Bombers are 3-0. Their stout defense is giving up just 13 points per game in victories against Hamilton and Ottawa twice. The Blue Bombers are disciplined, well-coached under Mike O'Shea and won't beat themselves. That should prove to be enough to win by more than a touchdown against Toronto. The Argos nipped Montreal, 20-19, in their opener failing to cover as 3-point home favorites. However, the 1-1 Argos were buried by BC, 44-3, in their last game raising a huge red flag about just how good they are. Toronto surrendered 583 yards and 35 first downs in that loss. The Argos' defense last forced a two-and-out during the opening drive of their season-opener. The Blue Bombers feature two top pass rushers in Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffocats. Toronto has a banged-up offensive line and a vulnerable defense. So I see Winnipeg covering for the ninth time in the last 11 meetings against the Argos. |
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07-04-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
Nothing against Carlos Rodon, who has pitched well this season. But the Giants aren't playing nearly well enough right now to be laying this high of a price especially on the road. The Giants, losers of 10 of their last 13 games, take on an old teammate, Madison Bumgarner. San Francisco is averaging a puny 2.6 runs in its last six games. Bumgarner has pitched his best at home, giving up two runs or less in seven of his eight home starts. If you discount a 4-0 loss to the Padres, the Diamondbacks are averaging 7.8 runs during their last five games. Certainly the Diamondbacks are capable of upsetting the Giants given San Francisco's struggles, but I'll lay a short price to have the insurance of 1 1/2 runs on the run line. Arizona would have a winning record in its last 18 games if given 1 1/2 runs. |
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07-03-22 | Mystics v. Sun -5 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a battle of the second and third-best teams in the Eastern Conference, who are in back of the defending champion Chicago Sky. Connecticut is 7-2 in its last nine games if you take away two losses the Sun suffered to the Sky, who are tied for the best record in the WNBA with Las Vegas at 15-5. The Sun have tremendous urgency here in protecting their home court. But the key is Elena Delle Donne is not going to play for Washington. She's a superstar and the Mystics' leading scorer at 15.3 points. She is being rested. Connecticut hosted Washington on May 28. Delle Donne did not play in that game either. The Sun won, 79-71. Washington is 1-3 the last four times Delle Donne has sat out. |
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07-01-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 120 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
If you're going to bet the Dodgers you might as well get the best price on them by taking them on the run line. LA's last 15 victories have all come by two or more runs! I find it a bargain getting the Dodgers at a plus price on the run line in a pitching matchup of Blake Snell versus Tony Gonsolin. Snell has been one of the most disappointing pitchers while Gonsolin has been one of the best. Snell is 0-5 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in seven starts for the Padres while Gonsolin has been dominant going 9-0 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Gonsolin has been mind-boggling pitching at home with a 5-0 mark, 0.81 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in six home starts this season.
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07-01-22 | Fever +13.5 v. Storm | 57-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Fresh off a huge victory against Las Vegas two days ago, the Storm are in letdown mode hosting last-place Indiana. Seattle does not have a good track record in these situations: 8-22 ATS versus below .500 opponents, 3-10 ATS following a victory and 0-5 ATS the past five times hosting the Fever. Indiana should put forth an effort after being ripped by its coach following a blowout road loss to Phoenix two days ago. The Fever is capable of pulling off upsets. They've pulled off two of them in their last six games beating the defending champion Sky and Lynx. The Fever haven't matched up well against the rejuvenated Mercury losing to them three times in their last six games. But this is a different opponent. |
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07-01-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Hamilton -7 | Top | 29-25 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
Both Edmonton and Hamilton are 0-3 on the season. But these are different types of 0-3. Rebuilding Edmonton averages 18 points a game and has the worst defense in the CFL. Hamilton's three losses have come to Calgary, Winnipeg and Saskatchewan. Those three opponents have a combined record of 8-1. Now the Tiger-Cats finally get to step down in class - way down in class. This is the Tiger-Cats' second home game. They were nipped by Calgary, 33-30 in overtime, during their first home game. Hamilton is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 home contests. Edmonton is giving rookie QB Tre Ford his first start. This is a tough road setting for Ford, who replaces Nick Arbuckle. Ford couldn't beat out Arbuckle during preseason. Ford has thrown three passes, completing one throw for eight yards. One of his passes was intercepted. The Elks are going to be without injured James Wilder Jr., their best running back. Note, too, that the Tiger-Cats have covered the last four times they've played Edmonton. |
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07-01-22 | Rangers v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Losers of three in a row, the Mets haven't dropped four straight games all season. I don't see it happening here. Neither does the oddsmaker, who has made the Mets close to a 2-to-1 favorite to beat the Rangers. I see this as a kill spot for New York. So I'm going to knock down that heavy juice by backing the Mets on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. Why such confidence in the Mets? New York's last two defeats occurred to the powerful Astros. Discount those two games and the Mets would be 24-10 at home. Even with those two losses, the Mets still have won 13 of their last 17 home games. New York is stepping well down in class facing the below .500 Rangers. Texas is stepping way up in class having played its last six games against the Royals and Nationals, whose combined record is 56-96. I like the pitching matchup very much, too, It's Glenn Otto versus Chris Bassitt. Otto has tailed off. He has a 5.31 ERA on the season. Otto's ERA during his last three games is even worse at 6.23. The Nationals got to him for six runs in two innings during his last start this past Sunday. The Mets rank fourth in runs. The Nationals are 24th in runs. Bassitt has been steady especially when pitching at Citi Field where he has a 3.16 home ERA. Bassitt has a 2.53 ERA in his last three starts and lifetime against the Rangers is 5-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 13 appearances, including nine starts. |
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06-30-22 | Dream v. Liberty -4.5 | 92-81 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
The Liberty has stepped up their game going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. New York beat Atlanta, 89-77, on the road in its last game six days ago. So the Liberty will be well rested for this rematch. They don't play again until Sunday so their focus should be there, too. Atlanta has been playing short-handed. The Dream have lost three in a row and carry a fatigue rating having just played two days ago, dropping a 92-74 game on the road to Washington. This is the Dream's third game in five days.
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06-25-22 | Mystics v. Aces -8 | Top | 87-86 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Four days. That's how long the Aces have had to stew about blowing a WNBA-record 28-point lead to the Sky in a 104-95 home loss to Chicago this past Tuesday. Elite coach Becky Hammon and her Aces, who own the best record in the WNBA at 13-3, finally get back on the court to host the struggling Mystics Saturday. I'm fully expecting the far more talented and thoroughly embarrassed Aces to bury the Mystics. Washington is 1-3 in its last four games. The Mystics are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. They are in action for the fourth time in seven days. This is their fifth straight different venue. There's a chance the Mystics rest their superstar player, Elena Delle Donne, like they have been doing. Delle Donne, who leads Washington in scoring at 15.3 points a game, played in the Mystics' previous game. That was an 85-71 loss to the Storm in Seattle. Fatigue might have gotten to the Mystics in that loss since they trailed by just two points in the fourth quarter. But even if Delle Donne plays, I see this as a blowout victory for the Aces. Washington only is averaging 72.2 points during its last four games. The Aces are the No. 1 scoring team in the league averaging 91.5 points. Las Vegas has covered four of the past five times hosting the Mystics. |
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06-25-22 | Edmonton Elks +8.5 v. Calgary | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
I saw enough improvement from Edmonton last week to feel confident they will cover this road game and provincial rivalry matchup getting more than a touchdown. The Elks have been hurt by seven turnovers. They have several wideouts, though, who have displayed talent helping the Elks to the third-most receiving yards in the CFL. Kenny Lawler, for instance, enters this week with the second-most receiving yards in the league. Calgary surrenders the second-most passing yards in the CFL. The Stampeders are young in the secondary and are without their star cornerback, Tre Roberson. Calgary had to exert a lot of effort in posting a 33-30 comeback overtime victory against Hamilton last week. The Stampeders came back from a 24-3 deficit. The Stampeders' skill position players got beat up in that game, too, with Ka'Deem Carey, their best running back, knocked out in the first quarter. Backup RB Peyton Logan was injured in the second half. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is dealing with a foot injury. Carey is likely to play although Mitchell could be a game-time decision. |
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06-24-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Giants just concluded a frustrating series against the sizzling Braves where they lost three of four, all by one run. I see the Giants taking their frustrations out on the hapless Reds, who have the worst record in the National League, are 11-23 on the road and have lost seven in a row with six of those defeats occurring by more than one run. The oddsmaker sees things this way, too. So to avoid the heavy juice, I'm banking on the Giants to win by more than one run. Alex Cobb is due to pitch much better. The Reds have below average offensive numbers despite playing in an outstanding hitter's park. Cobb is backed by a far superior bullpen. The Giants already have faced rookie pitcher Graham Ashcraft, seeing him late last month. Ashcraft pitched well against San Francisco back then. I'm not expecting a repeat. The Giants are averaging five runs per nine innings against righthanders. |
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06-24-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
It has been a great run for the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning, but their chance for a three-peat ends Friday night in Colorado. A combination of an outstanding and hungry Avalanche team and fatigue is too much for Tampa Bay to overcome. Just like the Celtics, the Lightning have nothing left in the tank this late into the playoffs after enduring a much tougher path than Colorado to reach the finals, including coming back from series deficits to defeat the Maple Leafs and Rangers. The Avalanche are 7-2 at home in the playoffs. They buried the Lightning, 7-0, in their last home game. Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper complaining about the Avalanche having six skaters on the ice when they scored the winning goal in overtime in Game 4 this past Wednesday is sort of hoisting up the white flag. That was a bitter home loss for the Lightning - and the turning point of the series. The Avalanche have proven to be the superior team. They are fresher and highly motivated. I don't see the Lightning having enough left to hang close. |
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06-21-22 | Lynx +6 v. Mercury | 84-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
The season record shows the Lynx at 3-13. But Minnesota is a well-coached, spunky underdog. The Lynx usually can be counted on for a strong effort. That's certainly been the case recently. They nearly upset the Storm and Aces during their last two games. Minnesota has lost its last three games by a combined seven points. Phoenix has been a disappointment this season. The Mercury haven't won by more than five points in regulation in 12 of their last 14 games. They lack depth and have been horrible at closing games out. This is the largest Phoenix has been favored all season. One problem the Mercury have had is the on-going saga of their star big player, seven-time All-Star Brittney Griner. She's been detained in Russia since February. This has been a constant black cloud and distraction for the team. Members of the Mercury just met with State Department officials recently to try to get Griner released. Her safety remains a constant worry for her teammates. This is what veteran guard Diana Taurasi said, "We want (Griner) to come home as soon as possible; it's No. 1 on our list.'' The Lynx don't have that distraction. They are desperate for a victory having come so close recently against better competition. |
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06-19-22 | Lynx +15.5 v. Aces | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
The Lynx are 12-4-1 ATS the last 17 times against the Aces when playing in Las Vegas. This includes covering a 10-point spread against the Aces on May 19. Minnesota nearly upset Seattle in its last game five days ago, losing by two points as an 8 1/2-point 'dog. The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. But their bench isn't very good. So the backdoor should remain open if the Aces were to build a big lead. If you exclude the Sparks, the Aces have only one win by more than 12 points during their last eight games. |
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06-18-22 | Saskatchewan -7.5 v. Edmonton Elks | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 34 m | Show | |
This is my Game of the Week. This figured to be a rebuilding year for Edmonton. But it was shocking just how bad the Elks looked opening week in getting blasted by British Columbia, 59-15. The final score wasn't exaggerated. The Elks looked that bad on both sides of the ball. Edmonton didn't win one home game last season. Don't look for the Elks to end that streak here. Saskatchewan rolled past Hamilton, 30-13, in its opener last week. The Roughriders forced five turnovers and had eight sacks. This wasn't a fluke as the Roughriders have one of the top defenses in the CFL. I don't see Edmonton putting much - if any type of dent - into the Roughriders' defense. Saskatchewan QB Cody Fajardo should be in line for a big game against an Edmonton defense that couldn't tackle anyone last week. Those problems aren't going away so soon for Edmonton. |
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06-18-22 | Calgary +1.5 v. Hamilton | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 96 h 35 m | Show | |
Now that Bo Levi Mitchell is OK, I'm confident in taking the Stampeders. Calgary was the No. 3 scoring team in the CFL last year. They have a strong wide receiving corps and the top scoring running back in the league with Ka'Deem Carey. Linebacker Cameron Judge was brought in to strengthen the defense. The Stampeders opened the season with a 30-27 win against Montreal. That game showed the Stampeders don't need Reggie Begelton, their top wide receiver, to have a big game. Begelton was quiet, but Richard Sindani had seven catches for 101 yards. Hamilton didn't look good in its opener, losing, 30-13, to Saskatchewan. The Tiger-Cats gave up eight sacks, had no sacks and only rushed for 26 yards. QB Dane Evans was ineffective and his receivers weren't getting separation. Calgary is 23-9 ATS (72 percent) the last 32 times as a road 'dog. |
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06-17-22 | White Sox +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
The Astros return home after three games on the road against the Rangers, fat and happy with a nine-game lead in the AL Western Division. The White Sox have more of a sense of urgency in a dogfight with the Twins and Guardians in the AL Central Division. The White Sox got well at the expense of the Tigers sweeping three games from them. Chicago has been extremely tough on left-handers the past few years and draw southpaw Framber Valdez. He is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in five home starts. The White Sox rank either first or second against lefty pitching in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. Lucas Giolito gets the start for Chicago. He's 4-2 with a 3.88 ERA. The strikeouts have been there for Giolito, who has fanned 70 in 53 1/3 innings. He's been excellent at Minute Maid Park with a 1.57 ERA in three starts there against Houston. The Astros actually are a below average scoring team at home, producing 3.8 runs a game. That ranks 23rd. Houston would be 7-12 in its last 19 games if minus 1 1/2 runs.
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06-17-22 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa +3 | 19-12 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 2 m | Show | |
There were plenty of concerns entering this season about two-time defending CFL champion Winnipeg. Those concerns were well justified after the Blue Bombers escaped with a 19-17 home win against Ottawa this past Friday. The two teams meet again this Friday in Ottawa. The Redblacks look much improved from last season. They outplayed Winnipeg putting up 142 more yards than the Blue Bombers. The Blue Bombers aren't nearly as dynamic at receiver and running back like they were last season. They also are missing a key cog in their secondary with All-Star safety Braxton Alexander out with a knee injury. Redblacks QB Jeremiah Masoli threw for 380 yards against the Bombers and their struggling secondary. |
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06-16-22 | Mystics v. Liberty +4.5 | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Sparked by star guard Sabrina Ionescu, who finally has managed to stay healthy, the Liberty has won four of their last six games while going 5-1 ATS. Ionescu has sparked this with her hot shooting, scoring 23 or more points in five of her last six games. The Liberty upset the Mystics, 74-70, on the road 13 days ago when Washington had its best player, Elena Delle Donne, in the lineup. Delle Donne is going to be rested in this game. The Mystics have covered just once in their last five games. They are dealing with a fatigue factor, too, playing for the fifth time in nine days. Washington also has a look-ahead game hosting the Sun next in a much bigger matchup.
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06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
Through four games of this NBA championship series we have learned several things. The Zig Zag has been in full effect with each team alternating wins and losses and the Celtics are the better team when each team plays well. The key question is will the Celtics play well in this Game 5? There's strong evidence they will. Boston has gone 8-3 in road playoff games compared to being 6-5 at home. The Celtics also are 13-1 SU and ATS following a loss. They are 7-0 in the postseason after losing their previous game. This includes winning their final road game against the Bucks and Heat during their two previous series. The Celtics just seem to play smarter and with more urgency in these crucial road spots. Stephen Curry had a game for the ages in Game 4 scoring 43 points in a 107-97 Golden State win this past Friday. Golden State scored more than 30 percent of its points in that game off turnovers and second chance points. I don't see the Celtics making so many silly mistakes in Game 5. Doubtful, too, that Curry can produce another epic performance to match his Game 4 heroics. Curry has been carrying the Warriors. Jayson Tatum and Boston's main backcourt rotation of Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are all capable of playing much better than they did in Game 4 when the four combined to shoot just 28-of-72 (39 percent) from the field. |
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06-11-22 | Aces v. Sparks +7 | 89-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
The Aces may be the best team in the WNBA. But this spot sets up for the Sparks. Los Angeles is an underachieving 5-7 this season. I put a large part of that blame on the inept coaching of Derek Fisher and inconsistent play of four-time All-Star LIz Cambage. The Sparks finally had enough of Fisher. He was fired this past Tuesday. Assistant Fred Williams is the Sparks' interim coach now. He formerly coached at Utah, Atlanta and Dallas where Cambage played under him four years ago and had her best season. The Sparks should be extremely motivated in Williams' first game as their head coach. This is especially so for Cambage, who is going against her former Las Vegas teammates. If this isn't enough, the Sparks also have revenge for a bad, 104-76, road loss to Las Vegas on May 23. The Sparks have covered 13 of the last 18 times as a home 'dog. They are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've hosted Las Vegas. The Aces haven't played in six days. That's too much time off. So there could be a rust factor to their game. |
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06-11-22 | Marlins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
The Astros had a frustrating Friday losing, 7-4, to the Marlins at home. Houston stranded 14 runners in scoring position in that defeat. I'm looking for the Astros to get their revenge and redeem themselves in today's game with a pitching matchup of lefties Braxton Garrett versus Framber Valdez. Garrett has pitched all of 3 1/3 innings this season. He has a 10.80 ERA. This could very well turn into a bullpen game for the Marlins - and it won't be featuring their best relievers. Miam's bullpen had to go 4 2/3 innings to get Friday's win. The Astros are 14-5 at home and 14-5 when facing lefty starters. Valdez is in excellent form going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts.
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06-11-22 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Tigers | 1-3 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
If you've been waiting for a strong Blue Jays offense to get rolling, your wait is over. The Blue Jays have scored six or more runs in 12 of their last 15 games. The Tigers, who are 11 games below .500, have been outscored by 39 runs during their last six losses. So I see a Toronto blowout here in a pitching matchup of stud Kevin Gausman versus struggling rookie Beau Brieske. Gausman has a 1.91 road ERA. His strikeouts-to-walks is 73-to-7. Brieske is 0-5 with a 4.93 ERA.
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06-10-22 | Dream v. Mercury -3 | Top | 88-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Given their talent level even without Brittney Griner, the Mercury have been a huge disappointment this season. But Phoenix finally is showing life. The Mercury have covered their last three games beating the Sparks and nearly upsetting powerful Connecticut and defending WNBA champion Chicago. Now the Mercury have their Revenge Game of the Year. The Dream embarrassed them on national television, 81-54, in Atlanta on May 29. Atlanta has tailed off since a surprising strong strong. The Dream have a losing record in their last seven games. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times as underdogs and have failed to cover during five of their last six visits to Phoenix. Look for the Mercury to go full throttle in getting their revenge. |
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06-09-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Twins | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
I respect the Twins. But I want Gerrit Cole and the Yankees going for me off an 8-1 loss on Wednesday. The way to get it without laying monster juice is back the Yankees on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. Cole is back in the argument as the best pitcher in the league with a 2.03 ERA in his last eight starts. Cole is 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA in three lifetime starts against Minnesota. While Cole is in great form again, Dylan Bundy has gone the opposite way. He's 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA in his past six starts. Career-wise against the Yankees, Bundy is 2-6 with a 6.42 ERA in 15 appearances, including 12 starts. Bundy has surrendered four homers in his last three starts spanning 14 innings. The Yankees lead the majors in homers. |
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06-09-22 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The Cardinals are trying to avoid a sweep here. The pitching matchup is Miles Mikolas versus lefty Shane McClanahan. I like the Cardinals' chances of hanging in with Mikolas, who has had nine of 10 good starts this season. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 80 percent of his starts. Mikolas has a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. McClanahan has pitched well, too, this season. This isn't a play against him, but taking 1 1/2 runs on what I believe is an inflated Rays' price. The Cardinals have won 20 of their last 27 games against a southpaw starter. If given 1 1/2 runs, St. Louis would be 14-6 in its last 20 games. |
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06-08-22 | Warriors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 100-116 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 40 m | Show |
Golden State knows how to win, adjust strategy and stay aggressive when it has to. The Warriors have proven that during the past seven years in the postseason. The Celtics aren't at that stage in the biggest games. I trust the Warriors' experience, their superstars and role players. I don't have as much faith in the Celtics' two superstars, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, along with the rest of their team. The Celtics also have a major weakness. They commit too many turnovers. The Warriors have excellent defenders to take advantage if and when the Celtics get careless, reckless and sloppy with the basketball. Getting back ace defender Gary Payton II is a big plus for Golden State. The Warriors scored 33 points directly off Boston's 18 turnovers in Game 2. The Warriors are due to get better performances from Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. They are a combined 18-of-54 shooting from the floor for 33 percent. If the Celtics aren't hitting their 3-pointers they are in trouble. The Warriors are the more versatile team. Boston is far from invincible at home. The Celtics lost not one but TWO home games each to the Bucks and Heat in the playoffs. |
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06-08-22 | Fever +15.5 v. Sun | 69-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Yes, the Fever have the worst record in the WNBA at 3-10. However, they've only lost two games by more than 14 points. The situation lays out for an Indiana cover against what I see as an inflated point spread. Connecticut is coming off a four-game West Coast trip that was highlighted by a pair of marquee games against Las Vegas. The Sun concluded their road swing with a 93-86 victory against the Storm this past Sunday. The Sun are 1-4 ATS following a victory. This is Connecticut's first home game since May 28. The Sun have a much bigger game on Friday when they host the defending champion Chicago Sky. I envision the Fever playing with a lot of intensity here. They have double revenge. The Sun, on the other hand, are in a letdown spot and look-ahead spot. |
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06-07-22 | Rockies v. Giants -1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
Dangerous at home, weak on the road. That's always been the Rockies' style and it's the same this year. Colorado has lost 20 of its last 27 games and is a dreadful 7-15 away from Coors Field. Things don't figure to improve in this series opener with disappointing German Marquez facing lefty Carlos Rodon. Marquez is 1-5 with a 6.71 ERA. He's in terrible form with a 7.94 ERA in his last three starts. Marquez has made 14 career starts against the Giants and is 4-8 against them with a 7.19 ERA. Rodon faced the Rockies on May 9. He held them to two runs on six hits in six innings while posting a season-high 12 strikeouts. Colorado is 1-6 the last seven times going against a southpaw starter. San Francisco has dominated Colorado going 20-5 since the start of last season. The Giants have won 12 of the last 13 meetings. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
Even now it seems unreal the Warriors lost to the Celtics in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Golden State hadn't lost an opening series home game in the playoffs in six years. The Warriors entered the fourth quarter beating Boston, 92-80. Until then, the Warriors had outscored their playoff opponents by an average of 25.4 points per 100 possessions during the final period. The Warriors took their foot off the gas and the Celtics got hot in epic fashion. The result was an improbable, 120-108, Boston victory. Neither is likely to occur in this Game 2. The Celtics shot 51 percent from the floor in Game 1. They also shot 51 percent from 3-point range making 21 of 41 shots from beyond the arc. Al Horford, Derrick White and Marcus Smart combined to make 15 3-point shots. Yes, Jayson Tatum is due to shoot better than he did in Game 1. But Horford, White and Smart are not going to keep up their way over the top offensive production. Golden State shot 44 percent from the field in the opening game and 42 percent from 3-point range making 19 of 45 shots from past the arc. The Warriors - the home team - even shot one fewer free throw than the Celtics. The Warriors are sure to make adjustments. Steve Kerr isn't above trying to go box-and-one and triangle-and-two to keep the Celtics off balance. He has the versatile defenders to do this with Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Andre Iguodala. There's a good chance, too, the Warriors get back from injury, ace defender Gary Payton II. |
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06-05-22 | Mystics +6.5 v. Sky | 82-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
First the bad news in backing the Mystics. No Elena Delle Donne, who is their leading scorer and best player. This is a rest game for her. That's built into the line, though. So I'll take this many points based on the situation and spot. This is a battle for second place in the Eastern Conference. The Mystics are used to playing without Delle Donne, who frequently has rest days. Washington is coming off a bad Friday home loss to the Liberty as a 12-point favorite. Washington has covered its last five road games. I think the Mystics give the Sky their best punch. Chicago is 7-17 ATS as a home favorite the past 24 times. Chicago's last five victories have been by an average of fewer than six points. The Mystics lost earlier to the Sky at home, but are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing them in Chicago. The Sky loses some of its home court advantage because they had to fly in from Atlanta late Friday night following a hard-fought win against the Dream. |
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06-04-22 | Tigers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
At 37-15, the Yankees have the best record in baseball. They just pounded the Tigers, 13-0, on Friday. Expect more of the same Saturday so I have no qualms about laying New York on the run line as the Yankees go for their ninth win in their last 11 games. The Yankees hold both a strong hitting and pitching edge. New York leads the majors in homers and ranks fifth in runs. The Tigers aren't likely to slow down the Yankees' powerful attack starting rookie Beau Brieske. He is 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Brieske has permitted 10 homers in seven starts. Yankees starter Luis Severino has looked good on his comeback trail. He's 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA. The Yankees are 7-2 in Severino's starts this season with all the victories except one coming by more than one run. Detroit is last in runs and homers. The Tigers are averaging 2.81 runs a game, which is the lowest in the majors since 1968. Detroit has been even worse on the road averaging 2.2 runs away from home. |
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06-03-22 | Sun v. Mercury +5 | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rotten timing for the Sun. Connecticut just upset Las Vegas, 97-90, last night in perhaps its most satisfying victory of the season. Now the Sun have to play for the second time in two nights and third time in four days against a rested and desperate Phoenix squad. All of the Sun's top players logged more than 31 minutes against the Aces last night. Connecticut is 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory. Phoenix is in dire need of a victory having lost six in a row. The Mercury, though, covered against the Sky losing by three points as a nine-point road 'dog in their last game. That was three days ago. So the Mercury should be much more rested and prepared than Connecticut. This is their first home game since May 19 so they should be fired-up. The Mercury have talented and prideful players - Skylar Diggins-Smith, Tina Charles, Diamond DeShields and the always fiery Diana Taurasi. |
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06-02-22 | Sun +4.5 v. Aces | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
The Aces are proving to be the best team in the Western Conference. The Sun could be the top team in the Eastern Conference. The teams met two days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won, 89-81. The Aces were 4-point favorites in that game. The line is slightly higher now so I'm going to get involved with Connecticut in this rapid revenge, short turnaround. The Sun are 8-2 ATS following a loss. They also are 9-3 ATS the past dozen times when playing on one day's rest. Connecticut is the No. 2 offensive team in the WNBA behind the Aces and ranks third defensively. Las Vegas is sixth defensively. I believe the Sun will be more prepared and play better against the Aces than they did on Tuesday. The Aces went with a zone defense against the Sun. Connecticut had trouble denting it, making just six of 22 3-pointers. The Sun only made 7 of 12 free throws for 58 percent. The Aces, on the other hand, hit 17 of 20 free throws. That's quite a free throw disparity. Reigning WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones had a bad game for the Sun, scoring just eight points. Brionna Jones, who is the Sun's fourth-best player, played fewer than 19 minutes due to foul trouble. Look for Jones and the Sun to shoot better and get a better free throw breakdown. This should lead to a cover if not outright upset win. |
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06-01-22 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
The A's are an embarrassment at home where they are 7-20 and drawing fewer than 4,000 fans. Oakland is 1-5 in its last six games and must deal with an angry Justin Verlander, off his worst start of the season. Verlander gave up six runs on 10 hits in a 6-1 loss to the Mariners this past Friday. Verlander entered that game riding a 19-inning scoreless streak with a major league-best 1.22 ERA. Verlander is 14-7 lifetime against the A's with a 2.90 ERA, although he last faced them in 2019. Look for Verlander to bounce back and dominate a weak A's lineup that ranks in the bottom three in the major offensive categories. Cole Irvin gets the start for Oakland. He hasn't pitched badly this season, but has an 0-3 career-mark against Houston with a 7.40 ERA in four starts. |
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05-31-22 | Wings +1.5 v. Sparks | 91-93 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Derek Fisher's poorly coached Sparks have not beaten a winning team since their opener. I don't believe they'll end that streak against the 5-3 Wings. Dallas is stepping down in class after splitting a pair of road games against Connecticut, the best team in the Eastern Conference. This is the Wings' first game in five days so they will be well rested and prepared. The Sparks, on the other hand, will be in action for the fifth time in nine days. LA could have a shorthanded backcourt with Jordan Canada and Lexie Brown both questionable. Canada is the Sparks' third-leading scorer and top assists person. Dallas has covered 20 of the last 27 times as a road 'dog. The Sparks are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing an above .500 opponent.
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05-31-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche -1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 139 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
The Oilers were able to get past the Kings and Flames so far in these Stanley Cup playoffs despite subpar goaltending by washed-up Mike Smith. But I don't see Smith, who has allowed three or more goals in seven of 11 playoff games, holding down the fort against the Avalanche. Edmonton has been able to get away with shoddy defense and goaltending because of its high-powered offense. Colorado, however, has an offense as good as the Oilers plus a much stronger defense. Edmonton scored a league-best 4.33 goals per game. Colorado was right behind the Oilers at 4.30 goals a game. The Oilers have two superstar point producers, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, to Edmonton's lone offensive superstar, Nathan MacKinnon. Colorado, however, has better scoring depth and its defenders have been the best in the playoffs at limiting shots on goals, limiting scoring chances and high danger opportunities. The Oilers don't have an answer for Colorado's star blue liner Cale Makar, who can control the action. Devon Toews gives Colorado the second best defenseman on the ice, too. This Game 1 is a home statement game for the Avalanche. I see them doing that with a multiple goal victory. |
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05-29-22 | Mercury v. Dream | 54-82 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Phoenix is off to a slow start at 2-5. But the Mercury have shown their veteran skill set with a pair of victories against the Storm. They also have back star guard Skyler Diggins-Smith, who is coming off a 28-point game. I like Phoenix's depth in the backcourt with Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, Diamond DeShields and Shey Peddy. The Dream has crashed back to Earth after a fast start with consecutive losses to the Mystics by a combined 25 points. The Mercury has covered six of the last seven in the series. |
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05-27-22 | Liberty +12.5 v. Storm | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Seattle has a strong pedigree. But right now Seattle just isn't that good. The Storm are a .500 team that could be 1-5 if not for close victories against the Sky and Sparks. Phoenix's only two wins this season have come against the Storm. The Storm rank 10th in scoring and are last in field goal percentage. Seattle has failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times it has been favored. So I believe the Liberty can hang within single digits. They have better talent than their 1-5 record indicates. New York should have defeated the improved Lynx on the road this past Tuesday. The Liberty blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead. Minnesota made 27 of 33 free throws in that game.
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
No team in NBA history has come back from a 3-0 playoff deficit. Don't expect the Mavericks to become the first. Dallas staved off elimination by holding off the Warriors, 119-109, at home two days ago. The Mavericks accomplished this by sinking 20 3-point shots on their way to making 46.5 percent of their 3-pointers. I can't see Dallas coming close to repeating that hot long-range shooting, which is its key to upsetting Golden State. The Mavericks were a below average 3-point shooting team finishing 19th during the regular season. The Warriors rank No. 3 in 3-point defense holding foes to 34.8 percent from beyond the arc. That percentage shrinks to 32.8 percent when the Warriors are playing at home. The Warriors are 8-0 at home in the playoffs. They haven't lost two in a row during the postseason in facing the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks. Dallas has failed to cover in five of its last six road games. Luka Doncic doesn't have enough reliable support for the Mavericks to stay close in this one. The veteran Warriors know how to finish off opponents. Steve Kerr will be focused, something it was tough for him to do after the tragic school shooting in Texas on Tuesday. Doncic is outnumbered by Golden State's many stars and role players. |
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05-26-22 | Wings v. Sun -7 | 68-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Short home revenge for Connecticut after the Wings upset the Sun, 85-77, on the road two days ago. That loss snapped a four-game Connecticut win streak. The Sun may not have had their full focus for that game after finding out that day that their starting point guard, Jasmine Thomas, will miss the rest of the season because of a torn ACL. Thomas has been a veteran leader for the Sun the past seven seasons. The Wings have firepower, but the Sun should be highly motivated for this game. The Sun still have excellent talent with Alyssa Thomas and Jonquel Jones. They've helped the Sun rank as the No. 2 scoring team in the league. Connecticut has adequate replacements for Thomas. |
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05-25-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Astros | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
I see the visiting Guardians hanging close to the Astros in a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill versus Christian Javier. I like Javier but he could be due for some regression with a 2.87 ERA. His ERA the past two seasons have been 3.55 and 3.48. Quantrill is a decent middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.48 ERA. He's second on the Guardians in quality starts. He can be counted on to go at least six innings, which he has done in each of his last six starts. This is important because while the Indians have a strong closer, Emmanuel Clase, they are vulnerable in middle relief. The Guardians have the least amount of blown saves in the league. |
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05-24-22 | Fever +13.5 v. Sky | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
The Sky and a happy Candace Parker are coming off a highly-satisfying national TV road win against the Mystics this past Sunday. Parker scored a triple-double against Washington. It was much celebrated since Parker was the oldest player in WNBA history to achieve that. Now the Sky get the rebuilding Fever, losers of four in a row. Following this game, Chicago gets Las Vegas at home up next. The Aces have the best record in the WNBA. So the situation sets up well for Indiana catching the Sky in a flat spot off a big win and with a huge look-ahead game. The Sky are 1-7-1 ATS the past nine times when meeting a foe with a losing record. Indiana is 10-3 ATS the last 13 times following a loss. |
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05-23-22 | Sparks v. Aces -10 | 76-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
The Aces are really dangerous now that they have an elite coach in Becky Hammon. So it's no surprise the Aces have the best record in the WNBA at 6-1 (5-2 ATS). This is the Aces' final game of their homestand. They won't play again for five days before taking on the Sky in Chicago. The Sparks have always been a rivalry matchup for the Aces. So I see Las Vegas being up for this game. The Sparks are inconsistent as they have been during the Derek Fisher coaching era. LA has lost four in a row going 1-3 ATS. The Sparks are 2-6 ATS following a loss. I see a motivated Aces squad covering a double-digit spread at home here. |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
I don't see Boston losing a second straight game at home to Miami following its 109-103 loss to the Heat this past Saturday. A Celtics loss would not fit what has been established as a strong pattern. The Celtics are 5-0 SU and ATS following a loss with a winning margin of 19.6 points in those games. All of those victories have been by eight or more points. Jayson Tatum had a poor game against Miami on Saturday missing 11 of 14 shots from the floor and committing six turnovers. Tatum has a strong history of coming back strong, too, following an off-game. Miami lost a road game following a victory in both of its playoff series against the Hawks and 76ers. The Heat have not strung together two consecutive road victories in the postseason. Miami has lost by seven or more points in 10 of its last 11 defeats. Both teams are banged up. Obviously it's a huge bonus for the Celtics if Robert Williams can play and if Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowery P.J. Tucker and Tyler Herro can't go for Miami. But I'm anticipating the Heat will have all of their injured players on the court. It doesn't change my mind that Boston is the right side here. |
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05-21-22 | Lynx +5 v. Wings | 78-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
The Lynx are 1-5, but 1-1 since Kayla McBride made her season debut. Minnesota defeated the Sparks and hung in against the Aces during its current road trip going 2-0 ATS. Now they Lynx get the Wings, who are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games. Dallas is off a huge, 94-84, win against the Mercury from two days ago. So this is a potential letdown spot for Dallas. Minnesota has covered five of the past six in the series.
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05-21-22 | Reds v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
I really like Toronto starter Alex Manoah, who is 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA. Reds starter Hunter Greene has potential, but I don't think he's ready to be in a major league rotation yet. Even throwing 7 1/3 innings of no-hit ball against the Pirates last Sunday, Greene still is 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA. The Reds are 6-18 on the road. That's the most away losses in the majors. Toronto has won 25 of its last 36 home games. |
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05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
The Mavericks have proven resilient all season both on the court and on the sidelines where Jason Kidd has made necessary adjustments. So I see the Mavericks bouncing back in this Game 2 after being embarrassed, 112-87, by the Warriors in Game 1 this past Wednesday. The Mavericks still might not have come down from their great upset Game 7 road win against the Suns this past Sunday. They will now after their deflating opening game blowout loss. Dallas missed 20 of 28 uncontested 3-point shots. Luka Doncic was held in check, scoring a postseason-low 20 points on only 6-of-18 shooting from the floor. Even with that Game 1 blowout loss, the Mavericks still have covered 11 of the last 15 times against the Warriors. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Golden State. |
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05-20-22 | Fever +14 v. Sun | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Until getting buried, 101-79, by the Dream this past Tuesday, Indiana had not lost a game by more than 14 points in any of its six games. Fever coach Marianne Stanley ripped her team following that loss questioning the Fever's effort and intensity among other things. So the Fever should be primed for a big effort here. Connecticut is fat and happy off a 92-65 victory against New York this past Tuesday. The Sun forced 32 turnovers in that win. Indiana turned the ball over only 12 times in its loss to the Dream. The Fever also held a rebound edge. Atlanta, though, was hot making 54 percent from the floor, including 10-of-22 3-pointers. It was a combination of poor defense by Indiana and excellent shooting by Atlanta. The Fever are 9-3 ATS following a loss. The Sun has played just three games. Indiana has played twice as many games. The teams meet again Sunday in Indianapolis. So the Sun won't likely want to run up a score knowing there would be a rapid revenge factor. This could leave the backdoor open in case Connecticut does build up a big advantage. |
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05-19-22 | Lynx +11 v. Aces | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
After an 0-4 start, the Lynx got their first win two nights ago beating the Sparks, 87-84. It was not a coincidence that it was Kayla McBride's season debut after returning from Turkey where she led her team to a Turkish title. Minnesota is a much better team with McBride on the court. The Lynx can stay within double-digits of the Aces, who are 2-5 ATS following a win and 1-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Lynx, on the other hand, are 12-4-1 ATS following a victory.
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
We saw it in Game 1 of the Celtics-Heat series. The Celtics were spent after taking out the Bucks in seven games and got buried by the Heat. I see the same thing happening here with the Mavericks, off their seven-game series upset win against the Suns, going against the rested Warriors on the road. Dallas lost its first two road games against the Suns by a combined 27 points. Golden State is 6-0 at home during the playoffs. The Warriors won all but one of those games by six or more points. The Warriors are 7-2-1 ATS when playing on three or more days rest. They last played five days ago. The Warriors have multiple quality defenders to slow down Luka Doncic.
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
There's no secrets or surprises at this late Game 7 stage. The Suns are the better team. The key question, though, is are they good enough to cover this mid-range number? The answer is yes because their home court makes a huge difference. The Suns are 3-0 SU and ATS at Footprint Center against the Mavericks in this series winning by an average of 19 points. Dallas has failed to cover in 10 of its past 13 visits to Phoenix. Home teams in Game 7 NBA playoff history have won 79.1 percent of the time. This is a 134-game sampling. The Suns have a scoring and rebounding edge in the paint. They also own an edge in free throw percentage. Luka Doncic is the best player on the court, but the Suns have the next three best players in Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. |
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05-14-22 | Kings +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
I'm taking 1 1/2 goals on the puck line in the belief the Oilers will wilt at home under the pressure of a Game 7. Even if they win, it will be by the narrowest of margins. Edmonton hasn't won a playoff series in five years. The Kings were an outstanding 23-11-7 on the road during the season. They are 2-1 on the road against the Oilers during this first-round series. LA still has some veterans remaining from its Stanley Cup winning teams of 2012 and 2014. So the Kings know how to win important games. |
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05-13-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
The Bucks lead this Eastern Conference series, 3-2. But I'm convinced the Celtics are the better team. The Celtics beat the Bucks in Milwaukee in Game 4 and I see them doing it again here. Boston has outscored the Bucks in the series. The Celtics' average margin of victory is 15.5 points. The Bucks have won two of their three games in the series by a combined five points. The Celtics let a 14-point lead slip away in losing Game 6, 110-107, at home this past Wednesday. Boston, though, has proven itself on the road going 6-0-1 ATS the last seven times as a road 'dog. The Celtics also are 9-1 following a loss. Milwaukee is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games. It's an added bonus for the Celtics if injured big man Robert Williams can play after missing the past two games because of knee soreness.
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05-11-22 | Storm -4.5 v. Mercury | 77-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
I want the prideful, well-coached Storm off a bad loss to Las Vegas in their last game. The Mercury are down a number of key players. They will be missing Kia Nurse and Brittney Griner and also are likely to be without Brianna Turner and Diamond DeShields. The Storm has covered five of the last seven times in Phoenix. |
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05-11-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
The last time the Bucks received this many points was against the Celtics on the road in Game 1 of this series. Milwaukee won that game, 101-89. There's a certain yin/yang to this series with the teams alternating victories during the first four games. The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. I see Milwaukee keeping this one closer than the point spread indicates. Jayson Tatum is a great player. But Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player on the court. The Bucks lost Game 4 by eight points because they shot horrible, especially Jrue Holiday, who was 5-of-22 from the floor. The Bucks also were an uncharacteristic 4-of-21 from inside the paint. The Celtics made 50 percent of their field goal attempts in Game 4. The Buck shot only 41 percent from the field. I don't see Holiday and Milwaukee's big men shooting nearly as poorly as they did in Game 4. |
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05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
Zig and Zag. Ebb and flow. Whatever you want to call it, the pattern often fits during NBA playoff series. I don't see this series being any different. The Heat took advantage of home-court and Joel Embiid being out to win the first two games of the series. The 76ers returned home, got Embiid back and won the next two games to tie the series at 2-2. Now it's Miami's turn to hold serve returning home. I have confidence in Heat coach Erik Spoelstra making the right adjustments and for Miami to turn things around at home in this Game 5. The 76ers are 7-15 ATS following a victory. They have covered only two of their last 10 away games and are 1-6-1 ATS during their past eight games in Miami. The Heat have covered seven of the last eight times they've been home. |
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05-10-22 | Aces v. Mystics +5.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
The Aces blew out the Phoenix Mercury, who were missing Brittney Griner. They then beat the Seattle Storm, who were missing their starting center. So the Aces enter this matchup fat and happy. Washington is 6-2 ATS as a home 'dog while the Aces have failed to cover five of the last seven times as chalk.
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05-10-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Reds | 5-4 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Look for the Brewers to bounce back from a 10-5 loss to the Reds last night in a big way. The Brewers are averaging nearly seven runs during their last 10 games and draw overmatched rookie Hunter Greene. Milwaukee just got to see Green this past Thursday and got to him for eight runs on nine hits, including five homers, in 2 2/3 innings. Greene has a 13.06 ERA in his last 10 1/3 innings. Freddy Peralta is off to a slow start for the Brewers. But he's a quality pitcher, backed by a vastly superior bullpen. Peralta won't have to deal with Joey Votto, MIke Moustakas and Nick Senzel, who are all in COVID protocol.
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05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
Even if it's just one point, I'm going to back an underdog that is superior. That's the case with the Celtics in Game 4 of their series with the Bucks. Boston buried Milwaukee by 23 points in Game 2 and should have won Game 3 this past Saturday on the road. The Bucks got a break on a bad call by the official late in the game to hold off the Celtics, 103-101. The Celtics only lost by two points - and could have easily won - despite Jayson Tatum missing 15 of 19 shots from the floor, while Giannis Antetokounmpo and a number of his teammates had huge games for Milwaukee. Boston is capable of playing much better. The Bucks aren't without Khris Middleton, who is out with an MCL sprain. The Celtics are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games while the Bucks are 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine home games when taking on a foe with a winning road mark. Note, too, that since the calendar turned 2022 the Celtics are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS off a loss. So the track record is there for the Celtics to bounce back with a victory. |
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05-07-22 | Grizzlies +7 v. Warriors | Top | 112-142 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
While I certainly expect the Warriors to shoot better than they did in their last game, I don't believe the Grizzlies are getting enough respect on the betting line. Since an opening playoff loss to the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason with the two losses each coming by one point. The Warriors have some outstanding players, but no one is playing at a higher level right now than Ja Morant. He could be in line for another huge performance with the Warriors minus a pair of their defensive standouts in injured Gary Payton II and Andre Iguodala. The Grizzlies will be without suspended Dillon Brooks, but are expected to get back big man Steven Adams. Memphis has a size advantage on Golden State. Both teams should be fresh having not played since Tuesday. All the pressure is on the Warriors returning home. Golden State has failed to cover the last four times when favored. The Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. Memphis is 16-6-1 ATS the past 23 times in an underdog role. |
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05-07-22 | Avalanche v. Predators +1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
If the Predators are going to win a playoff game against the Avalanche this is their chance returning home down 2-0 in the series. This isn't a play against Colorado. It's taking a value price on the Predators, who will be primed and pumped to play their finest game. Colorado has lost its last four road contests. The Avalanche also have lost in 18 of their last 26 road games to the Predators. Nashville nearly upset Colorado in Game 2 losing, 2-1, in overtime. Goalie Connor Ingram has looked good in the series in relief of injured starter Juuse Saros. So that's a big question that has been answered for the Predators.
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Credit to the Bucks for upsetting the Celtics in Game, 101-89, this past Sunday. The Bucks, though, do not have a good spread record as road underdogs, nor do they have a good spread record against the Celtics having failed to cover against Boston during the previous seven meetings until Sunday. The Celtics had been playing great down the stretch. They were impressive against the Nets in their opening series, while the Bucks weren't really tested in taking out an overmatched, banged-up Bulls team. So I like Boston to bounce back at home knowing a loss would put them in a desperate 0-2 hole. The Bucks are 8-17 ATS the last 25 times as a road 'dog and missing Khris Middleton, their second-best player. |
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05-02-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Dallas has a tremendous track record in these situations. The Mavericks are the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. Discounting a 126-118 victory, the Mavericks held the Jazz to 95.2 points in five games while winning their series in six games against Utah. The Jazz averaged only one point fewer per game than the Suns did during the regular season. So I believe the Mavericks can hang within two possessions of Phoenix. Both teams have been idle since Thursday. They each are at full strength, too. This isn't a fade on Phoenix, but a bet-on Dallas. The Mavericks are 42-16-1 ATS during their last 59 road games against a home team with a winning percentage better than .600. Dallas has covered 10 of its last 14 road games when getting points and also is 21-8 ATS the past 29 times when playing an above .500 opponent. |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +1.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Both teams are young and talented. The Timberwolves are down 3-2 in the series, but certainly have not been outclassed. Minnesota actually should be leading the series instead of Memphis having blown leads of 13 points or more in four of the five games. This includes a last second two-point road loss to the Grizzlies this past Tuesday in Game 5. The Timberwolves are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a defeat. They've learned enough lessons and have enough confidence to bounce back at home and defeat the Grizzlies to set up a Game 7. Karl-Anthony Towns is the best big man on the floor. The Grizzlies will be down one fewer defender against Towns with Steven Adams ruled out because of safety/health protocols. |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
The Nuggets gained a measure of respect by beating the Warriors, 126-121, at home this past Sunday. That kept the Warriors from sweeping Denver. But now the series shifts back to Golden State where the Warriors won the first two games by an average of 18 points. I don't see the Nuggets staying within single digits of Golden State. The Warriors are peaking at the right time. They have covered eight of their last 10 games. Jordan Poole has been remarkable. No team can match the Warriors' trio of scoring from Poole, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Nuggets are without their second and third-best players, injured Jamal Murray and Michael Porter. They are 4-10 ATS the past 14 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Nuggets also have encountered little point spread success at Golden State going 2-7-1 ATS during their last 10 visits. |
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04-26-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 3-5 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
The Dodgers have the most feared lineup in baseball. All 12 of their victories have been by more than one run. I'm going to ride that streak against a bad Diamondbacks team that ranks among the worst hitting and fielding teams in the majors. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has been brilliant so far with a 0.69 ERA giving up only one run in three starts. He's backed by a rested Dodgers bullpen following Walker Buehler's complete game shutout victory last night. Journeyman Diamondbacks starter Zach Davies isn't going to be able to match LA's pitching.
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04-25-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
Considering that Joel Embiid may not play, or will be limited if he does, this is getting a lot of points in a do-or-die spot for the Raptors. Toronto isn't ready to roll over after staving off playoff elimination by defeating the 76ers, 110-102, in Game 4 this past Saturday. If the Raptors wouldn't have lost in overtime in Game 3 this series would be tied 2-2 instead of the 76ers leading 3-1. The Raptors never trailed in Game 3 until overtime. Embiid is dealing with a torn ligament in his right thumb. The Raptors have covered 69 percent of the time during the past 39 times they've played an above .500 opponent. The 76ers were a better road team than home team during the regular season. |
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04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
Once again a team played great in the first game after losing a star player. That pattern fit the Suns in Game 3 of their series against the Pelicans when they won, 114-111, on the road minus superstar Devin Booker this past Friday. That gave the Suns a 2-1 series lead. Booker remains out with a hamstring injury. The Pelicans won't be feeling sorry for the Suns. This is the season for New Orleans. New Orleans center Jonas Valanciunas had an off-game and underrated forward Jaxson Hayes was ejected in the second quarter. Larry Nance Jr. also didn't play well. I expect those three to at least hold their own in this pivotal Game 4. A loss here at home by the Pelicans puts them down 3-1 in the series with the next game in Phoenix. I believe the Pelicans will make this a tough series on the Suns - and that requires a victory here. Phoenix has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been favored. The Suns were far less effective during the regular season when they were missing Booker. This time it catches up to them. |
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04-24-22 | Warriors -4 v. Nuggets | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
After losing by a combined 36 points in the first two games of this series, the Nuggets came out hard at home in Game 3. Denver stepped up and Golden State regressed. Yet the Warriors still won, 118-113. The Nuggets remain without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, their second and third-best players. The Warriors are peaking. I rode the Warriors in Game 3 and I'm sticking with them to close out the series here. The Nuggets comprehend that no team in NBA playoff history has come back from a 3-0 deficit and they certainly aren't going to be the first. Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson have been unstoppable. They're averaging a combined 76 points a game in the series. Draymond Green is an elite defender and he's been a bother to Nikola Jokic, who doesn't have enough help around him with Murray and Porter unable to play. |
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04-23-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +3 | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies have rallied to go up 2-1 in this series. But I don't see a significant talent gap between these two teams. The Timberwolves, in fact, have three of the four best players on the court in Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell. The strength of Memphis is its depth. But that's not such a factor here early in the postseason. This series has a certain Zig-Zag feel to it. The Timberwolves should be the more fired-up team after letting a 26-point lead slip away in Game 3 and trying to protect home-court. That was Minnesota's playoff inexperience showing in blowing that lead. The Timberwolves should learn from that to maintain their intensity. Towns had a monster Game 1. He's been quiet the past two games. He's the best big man on the court by far and is due for another huge performance. |
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04-23-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +3.5 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
This line would be quite different if the Raptors didn't blow a 17-point lead and lose, 104-101, in overtime to the 76ers at home this past Wednesday. That put Toronto down 3-0 in the series. So obviously the Raptors are in must-win mode being on the verge of elimination. The 76ers never led in regulation during Game 3. It was a tough beat for those taking plus two like myself because the 76ers won by three when Joel Embiid made a 3-pointer with less than a second left. I have confidence in Nick Nurse, though. I trust his Raptors will come out and play hard while the 76ers have to be feeling very fat after stealing Game 3. There's a good chance the Raptors get star rookie Scottie Barnes back for this matchup. He's missed the last two games with an ankle injury. Embiid, meanwhile, is dealing with a sore right thumb. He's expected to play, but he was wearing a brace on his right hand and thumb during Friday's practice. He might have a torn ligament in his thumb. |
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04-22-22 | Capitals -1.5 v. Coyotes | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Unless they're playing the Blackhawks, the Coyotes aren't even competitive. They are 2-14 in their last 16 games. One of those victories was against the Blackhawks. The other win came against the Sharks. Arizona just lost by one goal to Chicago in its last game this past Wednesday. The Coyotes lost all the other games during this span by multiple goals. Arizona has lost eight in a row with six of those defeats occurring by four or more goals. The Coyotes have been outscored by 34 goals during their last eight games. The Capitals should be in a kill mood after a tough 4-3 overtime loss to the Golden Knights two days ago. The Capitals are one of the best road teams in the league. They are 7-2 in their last nine away contests. Washington is fighting for playoff seeding so this game has meaning.
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04-20-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +2 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
Even though they are down 2-0 in their series against the 76ers, I see no panic from the Raptors and their coach, Nick Nurse. I like Nurse a lot. Enough to feel confident backing the Raptors to beat the 76ers in Game 3 now that they are back in Toronto after losing the first two games in Philadelphia. Even though the Raptors are more banged-up than the 76ers, I don't see a talent gap between the two teams. Toronto actually outscored the 76ers by nine points during the fourth quarter of Game 2. Nurse is known for making shrewd adjustments and the Raptors should be super intense while the 76ers can't help but subconsciously let up. The 76ers failed to cover in their last five regular season road games. They also are 1-5 ATS during their last six visits to Toronto. |
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04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Still fresh from their play-in game victory against the Clippers, the Timberwolves ambushed the rusty Grizzlies in Game 1. Memphis hadn't played in six days before losing, 130-117, this past Saturday to Minnesota. I don't expect the Grizzlies to go down 0-2 in the series losing both games at home. The Timberwolves are much improved. But the Grizzlies did win the second-most games in the NBA. They are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games even with that first game loss. Minnesota was 2-8 ATS the past 10 times as a road 'dog before surprising Memphis. The Timberwolves pulled down 11 more rebounds and were more physical than the Grizzlies in Game 1. Memphis isn't going to be intimidated at home. Grizzlies big man Steven Adams is a much better defender than he showed in Game 1. I see a physical, intense all-out effort from the Grizzlies to even this series while the Timberwolves, in the playoffs for only the second time in the last 18 years, are fat and happy having accomplished getting a split in Memphis. |
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04-19-22 | Wild v. Canadiens +1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
The Wild are in danger of suffering a letdown after clinching a playoff spot this past Sunday during their last game. All of Minnesota's last three games have been decided by one goal. The Wild would be 0-4 in their last four road games if laying 1 1/2 goals. Montreal shouldn't lack motivation and effort after an embarrassing, 8-4, home loss to the Capitals in their last game this past Saturday. The Canadiens have not been playing well, but they are capable of getting up for big games. They upset the Lightning as larger underdogs than this earlier this month. |
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04-18-22 | Hurricanes -1.5 v. Coyotes | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
Arizona has become an auto-fade on the puck line. The combination of injuries, inexperience and just wanting to get their season finished have rendered the Coyotes noncompetitive. The Coyotes are 2-13 in their last 15 games with their only victories during this time frame coming against non-playoff teams the Blackhawks and Sharks. Arizona has lost six in a row. All of these defeats have been by at least four goals! In fact, 12 of the Coyotes' last 13 losses have occurred by multiple goals. The Hurricanes can't afford to sleep against the Coyotes being in a tight race with the Rangers for the Metropolitan Division title. Carolina has beaten the Coyotes during seven of their last nine visits. |
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04-16-22 | Raptors +4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 111-131 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
The 76ers finished ahead of the Raptors during the regular season, but I'm far from convinced they are the superior team. Toronto went 3-1 against the 76ers during the regular season covering all four games. The latest was on April 7 in Toronto. Despite missing OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet, the Raptors defeated the 76ers, 119-114. VanVleet is Toronto's second-leading scorer and top assists guy. Anunoby is fourth in scoring on the Raptors. Toronto is 24-17 on the road. That's the same record as the 76ers' home mark. The Raptors have covered seven of their last nine road games and are 26-9 (74 percent) ATS the last 35 times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The Raptors enter this matchup 8-1 excluding a meaningless regular-season finale loss to the Knicks. Both teams haven't played in six days. I give the Raptors a coaching edge with Nick Nurse against Doc Rivers.
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