12-18-16 |
Packers -5.5 v. Bears |
|
30-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
44 h 29 m |
Show
|
Frightful weather isn't enough to stop the Packers from covering against the Bears. Chicago is just too beat-up and inexperienced at quarterback with Matt Barkley to stay with the Packers, who are starting to peak. Barkley is a Southern California kid who isn't accustomed to playing in weather that will have a wind chill factor of below zero. He doesn't have the skill level or weapons to keep up with Aaron Rodgers. The Bears do get Alshon Jeffery back from suspension. Barkley and Jeffery have never worked together, though. The Packers' offensive line and defense have gotten healthier coinciding with their three-game winning and covering streak against the Eagles, Texans and Seahawks. Since Week 11, the Packers haven't allowed more than 13 points in a game. The Bears are missing six starters on defense because of injuries and suspensions. They only have 10 takeaways, which ranks 30th. Green Bay has won six in a row at Soldier Field beating Bears teams much better than this current edition.
|
12-18-16 |
Browns +10 v. Bills |
|
13-33 |
Loss |
-105 |
44 h 28 m |
Show
|
The Bills are playing too bad and are too dysfunctional to be laying double-digits to any opponent. Buffalo is 2-5 in its last seven games and just playing the string out after missing the playoffs for an NFL-high 17th consecutive season. Rex Ryan and quarterback Tyrod Taylor both are likely out the door following the season. The Browns desperately want to avoid a winless season. They are not outclassed in this matchup. The Bills have surrendered 21 or more points in six of their last seven games. Robert Griffin III is the Browns' best quarterback and he won't be rusty after playing last week. Griffin has some decent weapons, too, with Terrelle Pryor, Corey Coleman, Gary Barnridge, Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell, who has looked his best when Griffin has been the quarterback due to Griffin's dual threat capability. The Bills could be without Kyle Williams, one of their best defensive players and a key run defender.
|
12-17-16 |
Southern Miss -4.5 v. UL-Lafayette |
Top |
28-21 |
Win
|
100 |
95 h 53 m |
Show
|
Not only does Southern Mississippi play in the stronger conference - Conference USA - but they have a huge quarterback edge on Louisiana-Lafayette, a Sun Belt Conference team. Early bowl steam should be respected and the early money has all been on the Golden Eagles. I agree. It would have been nice to lay less than four points here, but Southern Mississippi is at least a touchdown superior to the Ragin' Cajuns. Southern Mississippi wasn't the same team when star quarterback Nick Mullens had to miss two games last month due to a concussion. But the senior returned in the regular-season finale and led the Golden Eagles to a 39-24 victory as 14 1/2-point 'dogs accounting for four touchdowns. Mullens, not Brett Favre, holds the Southern Mississippi record for touchdown passes and passing yards. Mullens can exploit a vulnerable Lafayette secondary. The Golden Eagles also have a 1,321-yard rusher in Ito Smith. Sparked by this duo, the Golden Eagles average 33.2 points a game and rank 24th in yards. Lafayette's ground-oriented offense can't match that. The Ragin' Cajuns average 10 fewer points per game and 110 yards less per contest. Lafayette's big gun on offense is running back Elijah McGuire, who has rushed for more than 1,000 yards three straight seasons and scored 52 career touchdowns. Southern Mississippi's defense, though, has the second-lowest third-down conversion percentage in the country. The Golden Eagles also feature a top defensive lineman in Dylan Bradley. He should be highly effective operating against Lafayette's underclass interior linemen.
|
12-14-16 |
UC-Irvine v. Nevada -11 |
Top |
69-76 |
Loss |
-115 |
20 h 6 m |
Show
|
Nevada Reno has way too much offense and talent for Irvine, which has height and can play defense but is far too limited offensively. The Wolf Pack are averaging 19 more points per game than Irvine. I like Reno coach Eric Musselman. He's proved especially strong in a favorite's role as the Wolf Pack are 14-3-2 ATS the past 19 times they've been chalk. They also are 14-3-1 ATS during their last 18 home games. Cal Irvine has 23 more turnovers than assists. The Anteaters are shooting 41.6 percent from the field despite a tall front line and hit only 31.3 percent of their 3-pointers. Reno does a great job of not fouling. Irvine averages less than 17 free throw attempts per game. Irvine has no backdoor ability to cover if it should fall far behind, which I expect. This shapes up as a blowout win for the Wolf Pack. The opening number is short.
|
12-13-16 |
Warriors v. Pelicans +10.5 |
Top |
113-109 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 57 m |
Show
|
The record shows New Orleans to be 8-17. But the Pelicans are 5-4 when starting point guard Jrue Holiday plays. Holiday returned to the Pelicans' lineup this past Sunday after missing the previous three games and helped New Orleans end a five-game losing with an overtime road victory against Phoenix. Holiday scored 23 in the win. That win and Holiday's return should put the Pelicans in a good spot here. They catch Golden State playing its fifth road game in seven days. The long road trip has taken a toll on Kevin Durant, who has made less than 38 percent of his shots from the floor during the last four games. New Orleans has a frontcourt advantage thanks to Anthony Davis, the best big man in basketball. Davis can really put up monster numbers if Warriors starting center Zaza Pachulia has to miss a third straight game due to a wrist injury. Pachulia does a lot of the dirty work underneath for the Warriors receiving none of the publicity that Durant, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green draw. Golden State doesn't have a good recent history in these type of matchups failing to cover eight of the last nine times when facing a foe with less than a .400 home winning percentage. The Warriors return home following this game to begin a three-game homestand so their focus may not be 100 percent.
|
12-11-16 |
Pelicans +4.5 v. Suns |
Top |
120-119 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
Knowing they weren't going to beat the Clippers on the road last night, the Pelicans did the smart thing. They rested big man Anthony Davis. Davis should be in for a monster performance against the guard-oriented Suns. New Orleans isn't going to lack for motivation not only looking to put a halt to a losing skid but gain revenge for a 112-111 home overtime loss suffered to Phoenix last month. That may have been the Pelicans' toughest defeat of the season. While New Orleans is playing without rest, the Suns are in action for the fourth time in six days. Phoenix is 3-6 at home and has failed to cover four of its past five games at home. The Suns have been favored four times this season. Not only have they failed to cover each time, but they were blown out in each instance losing to the Kings by 19 points, Nets by 18, 76ers by 15 and Nuggets by six.
|
12-11-16 |
Cowboys v. Giants +4 |
|
7-10 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 11 m |
Show
|
Dallas has been maybe the major success story of the NFL season so far. The public loves them betting them past a field goal favorite on the road against a division rival that has won six of its last seven games. New York is 5-1 at home. The Giants are the only team to beat Dallas. New York held the Cowboys to 19 points in that opening week win. The Giants' defense has gotten better since then. Only three teams have surrendered fewer touchdown passes than the Giants. Not once have the Giants yielded more than 24 points during their last nine games. Dallas hasn't lost since that opening week defeat. But the Cowboys have been in four close games the past four weeks. They've been outgained in three of those contests. Both teams play ball control. The Cowboys by running. The Giants by throwing short passes. The Giants just activated their best-catching running back, Shane Vereen. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 30's with snow flurries. This has all the makings of another back-and-forth matchup likely decided in the final minute. So I'm happy to take this many points.
|
12-11-16 |
Redskins +1 v. Eagles |
Top |
27-22 |
Win
|
100 |
111 h 50 m |
Show
|
Washington is clearly the superior team. The Redskins showed that in the team's first meeting back in Week 6 when they outgained the Eagles, 493-239. Washington won 27-20 and the score should not have been that close but the Eagles got two non-offensive touchdowns. Since then the Eagles have gotten worse. They are 2-7 in their last nine games. Philadelphia has allowed 26 or more points in five of its last six games. The Eagles have a terrible secondary and a pass rush that has only managed six sacks in the last six games. Washington has a much better secondary and an explosive offense - which ranks No. 2 in yardage and passing yards - that can take advantage of Philadelphia's many defensive shortcoming. It's a plus if star tight end Jordan Reed plays, but the Redskins have many other receiving weapons, including DeSean Jackson, underrated Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and Vernon Davis. The Redskins have won and covered the past four in the series.
|
12-11-16 |
Vikings -3 v. Jaguars |
|
25-16 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 2 m |
Show
|
The Vikings are the fresher team having played last Thursday and have playoff incentive something the Jaguars lack.
Minnesota gives up the third-fewest yards per game and fourth-fewest points. The Jaguars are averaging just 17.5 points per contest during their last eight games. Minnesota yields just 17.4 points per game.
This is one game where you should have a good idea of where the turnovers are going to fall. The Vikings are No. 2 in the NFL in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. The Jaguars are last at minus 18.
Blake Bortles has more pick-sixs than wins during his three-year NFL career.
|
12-10-16 |
Michigan +9 v. UCLA |
Top |
84-102 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
UCLA has to deal not only with getting back down from the high of knocking off then-No. 1 Kentucky, but a rust factor, too. The Bruins haven't played since beating the Wildcats a week ago. Michigan is a top-10 defensive club. The Wolverines have proven capable beating Texas. The Bruins are in heady territory. Their youth and maturity could catch up to them here against this well-coached, tough Big Ten team. So I'll take this many points.
|
12-09-16 |
Pacers v. Mavs +5 |
Top |
103-111 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
Dallas is lottery-bound. We know that. We also know the Mavericks are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. But the Mavericks still have a number of prideful veterans who are not injured - Wesley Matthews, Deron Williams and Harrison Barnes - and they will be motivated to perform at a high level at home here following an embarrassing 120-89 loss to the Kings two days ago. Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle held a team meeting immediately following that game. Carlisle told reporters that the Mavericks' play in the second half of that loss was inexcusable. Now the Mavericks have a chance to make amends against the Pacers, who are 3-7 SU and ATS on the road and playing their fifth consecutive road game. The Pacers are off a 109-94 victory against the Suns on Wednesday. Indiana is 2-8 ATS following a victory. The Pacers could be distracted, too, returning home immediately following this matchup to host Portland on Saturday. The Pacers rank 25th defensively so points shouldn't come so hard for the Mavericks. It's a big drop down in class, too, for the Mavericks. During their last nine games, the Mavericks had had to play the Spurs twice, Clippers, Cavaliers, Hornets twice and Bulls.
|
12-06-16 |
Suns +7.5 v. Jazz |
|
105-112 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 13 m |
Show
|
Phoenix will bring energy to this matchup having been idle the past two days. The Jazz played last night beating the Lakers on the road. The Jazz have a bigger game on tap against the Warriors, who they host Thursday. So this is a letdown spot for them. The Jazz have been without point guard George Hill the past three games. He's been out with a toe injury. The Suns have covered 10 of their last 12 against above .500 opponents.
|
12-06-16 |
76ers +8.5 v. Grizzlies |
|
91-96 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 16 m |
Show
|
In all honesty, I can't say this is a play on the 76ers. I am leery of them on the road. But the crippled Grizzlies can't be laying this many points against any opponent off a double overtime game last night. Right now the Grizzlies are down Mike Conley, Vince Carter and Chandler Parsons. This is a huge letdown spot for them following their dramatic 110-108 two overtime road win against New Orleans. The Grizzlies, just like the 76ers, had to travel to get to tonight's game.
|
12-06-16 |
Brown +13.5 v. Providence |
|
57-95 |
Loss |
-103 |
5 h 16 m |
Show
|
Brown takes this game much more serious than Providence. It's a very short trip - about one mile - so Brown will get fan support. Brown has covered 20 of the last 28 times going against foes with a winning home mark. The Bears are 6-1 ATS the last seven times taking 13 or more on the road.
Brown has needed senior leadership, including point guard Tavon Blackmon who is playing at a high level.
Providence just beat Rhode Island in its last game this past Saturday. That was a much bigger in-state game for the Friars.
|
12-05-16 |
Blazers v. Bulls -4 |
Top |
112-110 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
The Bulls are proven at home. The Trail Blazers have proven to struggle on the road. Chicago has covered five of its seven home games this season and seven of its last nine going back to last season. The Bulls knocked off the Cavaliers, 111-105, at home this past Friday. They then suffered a letdown when they played Saturday in Dallas losing 107-82. Dwayne Wade was rested in that game. The Bulls and Wade should be ready now. If they lose this game they could be looking at a four-game losing streak as they play at the Pistons on Tuesday and host San Antonio Thursday. Chicago has covered the past five times following a straight-up loss. Portland is 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine away matchups. The Trail Blazers' only road victories during this span came against the Mavericks, Nets and Grizzlies. Portland is 0-6 ATS versus above .500 opponents. The teams played on Nov. 15 and the Bulls slammed the Trail Blazers, 113-88, in Portland.
|
12-04-16 |
Panthers v. Seahawks -7 |
Top |
7-40 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 58 m |
Show
|
Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. The Seahawks are at their finest during the home stretch going 18-4 SU, 16-6 ATS from November through January during the regular season. Seattle has the best outdoor home advantage in football and the Seahawks fans will be rocking here in this nationally televised matchup. The Seahawks have gotten healthier while the Panthers are demoralized and extremely banged-up. Cam Newton is having a down season. The Panthers haven't been able to protect him giving up 32 sacks. Carolina is down to its third-string center. Seattle has star safety Earl Thomas back and elite pass rusher Michael Bennett should be back, too. Russell Wilson is finally healthy. That makes him a dual threat. He'll take advantage of a Carolina defense missing its leading tackler and emotional leader, Luke Kuechly, top pass rusher Mario Addison, who leads the team with nine sacks, and free safety Kurt Coleman. All three are injured.
|
12-04-16 |
Broncos v. Jaguars +3.5 |
|
20-10 |
Loss |
-115 |
36 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is the lowest total on the Week 13 NFL betting board. So taking more than a field goal is huge even though it's with Jacksonville. The Jaguars are poorly coached and have injuries with Chris Ivory, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas all likely not to play. But the Broncos are in worst shape offensively with a below par ground attack, mediocre offensive line and rookie Paxton Lynch forced to make a road start. Jacksonville has a very underrated secondary having not allowed more than 280 yards passing to any quarterback. The Broncos figure to be ultra-conservative with Lynch, which isn't a great ingredient to cover a spread as road chalk. Denver's defense has surrendered 83 points in its last three games. The Broncos' defense still is very good, but it's not as dominant as last season. Blake Bortles brings a huge mobility element. The Jaguars have come very close at home nearly upsetting Green Bay opening week, losing to the Ravens by two points, beating the Colts and falling to the Texans by three. Jacksonville could have won all of those games. The Jaguars' only bad home loss was to the 9-2 Raiders. Given the Broncos' limited resources offensively, the Jaguars should be in for another close call at home.
|
12-03-16 |
Heat v. Blazers -6.5 |
|
92-99 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 24 m |
Show
|
Portland plays much better at home and holds a huge backcourt edge. The Trail Blazers are well rested, too, having been idle since Wednesday. They've been home since before Thanksgiving. Miami is enduring its fourth game in six days. This is the Heat's third straight road game. They are off improbable road wins against the Nuggets and Jazz. The Heat have been doing this while short-handed being without Justice Winslow, Josh Richardson, Dion Waiters and Derrick Williams. Much credit to the Heat, but their win streak ends here.
|
12-03-16 |
San Diego State v. Wyoming +7 |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 41 m |
Show
|
The host has won all three Mountain West Conference title games. Look for Wyoming to contribute to that trend. Wyoming averages nine more points per game than San Diego State and the Aztecs' defense has vanished the last two weeks. Just two weeks ago, Wyoming nipped San Diego State, 34-33, in Laramie as 10-point 'dogs. The score shouldn't have been that close, but San Diego State returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and scored another touchdown on a Hail Mary pass. Wyoming outgained San Diego State by 97 yards and had 12 more first downs. Now the Aztecs have to return to Laramie where the temperature forecast is for the teens-to-low 20's. Not exactly San Diego beach weather. Wyoming has proven itself at home beating Northern Illinois, Air Force, Boise State along with San Diego State. The Cowboys were at least a touchdown 'dog in all of those games. After losing to Wyoming, San Diego State got buried by Colorado State, 63-31, at home last week. The Rams picked up 507 yards in that game. The Aztecs heavily rely on running back Donnell Pumphrey. But he's gotten worn down having carried the ball 305 times this season. Pumphrey hasn't run for more than 76 yards in each of the last two games. Wyoming has its own outstanding runner, Brian Hill, plus playmaking deep threat Tanner Gentry and quarterback Josh Allen.
|
12-02-16 |
Rockets v. Nuggets -4.5 |
|
128-110 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 34 m |
Show
|
Denver has the rebounding to keep the Rockets from playing their up-tempo style. The Rockets are going to have dead legs, too, after last night's double overtime victory against the Warriors. That huge victory also puts the Rockets in a major letdown spot. This marks Houston's fifth game in eight days.
The Nuggets are fired up and mad after getting upset at home by the shorthanded Heat in their last game. The Nuggets are healthier with the return of Danilo Gallinari and Will Barton.
|
12-02-16 |
Colorado v. Washington -7.5 |
Top |
10-41 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 32 m |
Show
|
Colorado's had a great season, but now the Buffaloes meet their Waterloo here in the Pac-12 title game. Washington has the conference's top defense yielding just 17.8 points per game, a big edge in speed and skill position players with Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Jake Browning and a special teams advantage in both returns and place-kicking. The Huskies also have big-game experience, which Colorado lacks. Add this all up and the Huskies win by double-digits. Washington is the fresher team off consecutive blowout victories against Arizona State and Washington State. Colorado is off a tough physical 27-22 home win against Utah last week. The week before the Buffaloes came from trailing late in the third quarter to win against Washington State, 38-24. The Huskies have won their bowl game in three of the past four years. Their coach, Chris Peterson, has a history of big game having coached at Boise State. Colorado hasn't been on the national stage in years. The Buffaloes' last bowl appearance was nine years ago. Their coach, Mike MacIntyre, did a great job this season but he doesn't have Peterson's bowl and big game resume. Style points matter here, too, for the Huskies. They want a college football playoff berth so a big spread win would help that cause. The Huskies already have beaten nine opponents by at least 24 points.
|
12-01-16 |
CS Sacramento v. Pacific -10 |
Top |
58-74 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 23 m |
Show
|
Sacramento State plays in the Big Sky, a very weak conference. The Hornets haven't covered a game all season. They're likely to get blown out here against a superior Pacific team that is looking to make a strong statement at home under first year head coach Damon Stoudamire. Pacific has played the stronger competition and are coming off a road loss to Nevada. This sets up as a kill spot for the Tigers. Sacramento State coach Brian Katz was quoted as saying this about the matchup: "We haven't played great yet. We think we will, but we haven't at this point. We know Pacific is really good, but I like our group in the long term. By league time, I think we'll be very competitive." That sure doesn't sound like a coach confident of his team right now.
|
12-01-16 |
Heat v. Jazz -9.5 |
|
111-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 40 m |
Show
|
Kudos to Miami for pulling off a road upset against the Nuggets on Wednesday. That was a gutty victory by the Heat, who were down three rotation players with Dion Waiters, Justice Winslow and Josh Richardson all injured. None are going to play today. So it's asking too much for the Heat to stay competitive with the Jazz while playing for the third time in four days - all at different venues - and in back-to-back games both in high altitude. Miami has failed to cover six of the last seven times it has played without rest. On the surface, it seems this is a lot of points for Utah to still lay. But the Jazz are playing their best basketball winners of four in a row. The Jazz have won those four games by an average of 20 points with the smallest victory margin being nine points. Utah is 9-2 ATS the last 11 times when going against a foe that has a winning percentage below .400. The 6-12 Heat have only beaten one team, Memphis, that has a winning record. Hassan Whiteside is Miami's best player. But he's dealing with a sore knee. Utah's Rudy Gobbert, who has 11 double-doubles on the season and is shooting better than 63 percent from the floor, is one of the few big men who can neutralize Whiteside.
|
12-01-16 |
Cowboys v. Vikings +3 |
Top |
17-15 |
Win
|
103 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
Dallas is on a tremendous roll, but that stops here. The Cowboys aren't that strong to be laying this number on the road against this classy of a defense and against this strong of a home field, which ranks among the best in football. Stefon Diggs is expected to play, which is huge for the Vikings. Sam Bradford's short passing game will be a lot more effective at home and with Diggs in the lineup. The Cowboys do not have a strong secondary. Their defense relies on their offense to play ball control. The Vikings give up the second-fewest points and third-fewest yards. The short time frame also hurts the visiting Cowboys.
|
11-30-16 |
Spurs -8.5 v. Mavs |
Top |
94-87 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 54 m |
Show
|
I want San Antonio going for me after the Spurs played their worst game of the season in a 95-83 home loss to the lowly Magic Tuesday night. That loss snapped a nine-game San Antonio win streak and can't make Gregg Popovich too happy. Neither can the fact that the Spurs had their lowest-scoring game of the season and committed a season-high 19 turnovers. I have to believe the Spurs are going to be highly motivated for this matchup. Dallas is the perfect patsy, too, with the worst record in the NBA at 3-13. The Mavericks' only victories have come against the Pelicans, Bucks and Lakers. None of those teams have a winning record. There is zero chance of the Spurs taking the Mavericks lightly either since Dallas hung with them in a 96-91 road loss on Nov. 21. The Mavericks missed a jumper with 15 seconds left in that game that would have given them the lead. The Spurs shouldn't feel fatigued since before last night they had been idle for two days. The Spurs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games while the Mavericks have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games and are 0-8 ATS the past eight times at home when hosting an opponent with a winning road mark. The Mavericks remain without injured Dirk Nowitzki. They are thin at point guard due to injuries and rank last in all of the major offensive categories - scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. San Antonio ranks sixth in fewest points allowed. Dallas plays at Charlotte on Thursday. The Mavericks stand a better chance of beating that opponent than San Antonio. So the Mavericks may play their bench longer if they fall too far behind in an effort to conserve energy for Thursday.
|
11-30-16 |
South Alabama -4 v. Southern Miss |
|
78-55 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 52 m |
Show
|
I want the now road-tested Jaguars off a double-digit loss in their last game. The Jaguars are better than Southern Mississippi and have proven themselves away from home beating UNLV. South Alabama also traveled to Europe during the summer and played four exhibition games.
Southern Mississippi has played a very easy schedule. When the Golden Eagles stepped up they were hammered by LSU. They lack the size and bench to hang with South Alabama.
|
11-30-16 |
Grizzlies +14 v. Raptors |
|
105-120 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
The Grizzlies are facing life without Mike Conley. This is their first game since losing their leading scorer and assists leader to a back injury. Teams usually respond with a hard and motivated effort in their first game without their star player. That should be the case here. Memphis is an experienced, prideful playoff team that has the third-best defense in the NBA. The Grizzlies allow seven fewer points per game than the Raptors. Toronto is good, but not elite. The price has become over inflated due to Conley's absence. Toronto just had a blowout home win against the 76ers. The Raptors host another bad team on Friday, the Lakers. So the Raptors can't be blamed for putting this matchup on cruise control as they enjoy what looks to be an easy week for them. Do note, though, that before blowing out the 76ers, the Raptors hadn't won a game by more than 13 points since opening night.
|
11-28-16 |
Hawks +13.5 v. Warriors |
|
100-105 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
This isn't a fade on the Warriors. It's just my belief that there is some line value to the Hawks, who aren't used to getting this many points in a game. The Hawks do play good defense and get good ball movement. However, they have cooled off after a 9-2 start and are off an embarrassing 109-94 road loss to the Lakers last night.The Hawks have a good coach and will want to redeem themselves off that bad defeat. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing without rest the past eight times. Atlanta does carry a high fatigue rating, but the Warriors are playing for the third in four days and may be without Draymond Green again. He missed the Warriors' last game with a sprained ankle.
|
11-28-16 |
Packers +4 v. Eagles |
Top |
27-13 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 14 m |
Show
|
Talent-wise the Packers are better than the Eagles. Philadelphia is tough at home, but Green Bay is way overdue to play better. I see that occurring here as the Packers are improved on offense and their defense is getting key players back. Clay Matthews played last week and cornerback Damarious Randall and linebacker Jake Ryan are expected back Monday. The Packers have outstanding wide receiver depth. Cornerback is a major weakness for the Eagles. One player Aaron Rodgers will look to target is seventh-round rookie draft choice Jalen Mills. Rodgers has the receiving depth to go after Mills with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. It's a plus for Green Bay's offense that tight end Jared Cook is back. James Starks provides enough of a running threat for the Eagles to respect play-action. Carson Wentz lacks the playmakers Green Bay has. He's inconsistent as most rookies are and won't be able to match Rodgers. The Eagles have the worst receivers in the league and their best running back, Ryan Mathews, is out. Green Bay's defense has been torched the past few weeks. But the Packers' last four games have been against very strong offenses - Redskins, Titans, Colts and Falcons. All of those teams have above average quarterbacks. The Eagles don't. Much is made of Green Bay not playing well, but the Eagles are just 1-3 in their last four games. This is the right time now to jump on the Packers.
|
11-28-16 |
Thunder +1 v. Knicks |
|
112-103 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
I see a class difference here. Derrick Rose is still getting acclimated to his new team while Russell Westbrook has become the new Oscar Robertson averaging 31 points, 11 assists and 9.9 rebounds. Oklahoma City holds a strong rebounding edge along with Westbrook's overall dominance. The Knicks have won six in a row at home. However, those victories have come against the Nets, Pistons - a horrible road team - Mavericks, slumping Hawks, Trail Blazers - who were playing their fourth road game in six days - and Hornets in overtime. I don't see the Knicks stepping up here.
|
11-27-16 |
Panthers +3 v. Raiders |
|
32-35 |
Push |
0 |
88 h 15 m |
Show
|
Credit Jack Del Rio with doing a great job this season with the Raiders. Having said that, though, I believe the Raiders are very overrated. Yes, they are 8-2. But they've also been outgained on the season, have committed the most penalties in the league by far and are 1-3 ATS in games played in Oakland. The Panthers are showing signs of what made them last season's NFC champions. They have won three of their last four games holding all of these foes - including New Orleans and Arizona - to fewer than 21 points. Carolina has won straight-up the last four times it has been an underdog. The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and have also failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've played a below .500 opponent. The Panthers' ground attack is due to pick up now that Jonathan Stewart is back in the lineup. The Raiders have yielded 100 yards rushing in all but three of their games. The timing isn't good either for the Raiders here. They just played Monday night in high, high altitude and dirty air in Mexico City having to go to the wire to beat Houston. Oakland's defense was on the field for more than 36 minutes in that victory.
|
11-27-16 |
Titans -3 v. Bears |
Top |
27-21 |
Win
|
100 |
136 h 40 m |
Show
|
The answer is yes I can trust the Titans on the road - against this battered foe whose season is shot. Tennessee is in must-win mode at 5-6. Marcus Mariota showed potential as a rookie last season and he has burst out into star status during the last seven weeks throwing 19 touchdown passes with just three interceptions during this span. The Titans are averaging 31 points during this time frame. The Titans aren't one-dimensional offensively. DeMarco Murray still is an elite running back. He has five 100-yard rushing games this season. Injuries have turned the Bears from a slightly-below .500 type team into a bottom feeder ranking among the five worst teams in the NFL. Chicago may shut down Jay Cutler, who has no chance of sparking an offense composed of backup receivers and backup offensive linemen. Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller are Cutler's two top targets. Jeffery is suspended and Miller is likely done for the year after suffering a broken foot this past Sunday. The Bears have multiple offensive line injuries, too, along with key defensive players out or suspended. About the only strength Chicago had was its run defense, but that is now a weakness, too, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman missing last week. Mariota and Murray can light up this defense. Dick LeBeau has improved Tennessee's defense. The Titans now have a respectable pass rush. Their secondary is vulnerable, but the Bears lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage. Chicago's home field advantage is just about nil. The Bears have dropped 12 of their last 15 at Solider Field going 5-10 ATS in those games.
|
11-27-16 |
Bengals +4 v. Ravens |
|
14-19 |
Loss |
-110 |
85 h 43 m |
Show
|
You have to go back to the opening game of the 2012 season to find the last time Baltimore beat Cincinnati by more than four points. Since then the Bengals have dominated this series winning the past five times. The Bengals have made the playoffs the past five years. That streak is in serious jeopardy if the Bengals lose this game. Cincinnati isn't as good as it has been the last few years. However, the Ravens are in down mode, too, better than last season but not nearly as good as their playoff team of two years ago. This is a key divisional showdown between two good defensive teams with mediocre quarterbacks so points are at a premium. I want this many points going for me here. Both teams are averaging exactly 19.9 points per game. Andy Dalton is merely a game manager minus top wide receiver A.J. Green. But Joe Flacco is worse ranking 27th in the passer ratings. Much is made of the Bengals losing Green and running back Giovani Bernard to injuries in last week's 16-12 loss to Buffalo. But the Ravens have injuries, too, in their offensive line and at cornerback where Jimmy Smith, their top pass defender, is questionable after missing last week. The Ravens are the second-most penalized team in the NFL. The Bengals have committed the seventh fewest penalties. The Ravens aren't good enough to lay this many points here against this prideful and playoff-experienced foe that has covered 15 of the last 22 times following a loss.
|
11-27-16 |
Cardinals +5 v. Falcons |
|
19-38 |
Loss |
-105 |
63 h 12 m |
Show
|
Arizona is better than its 4-5-1 record. The Cardinals are in must-win mode and the pointspread has become inflated. David Johnson is a top-three running back and the Cardinals' defense gives up the fewest yards per game. The Cardinals get back key playmaking safety Tyrann Mathieu and have All-Pro cornerback to shadow Julio Jones. The Falcons don't generate much pass pressure and their offense is less effective when Jones can be handled in single coverage. Peterson is one of the few cornerbacks capable of handling Jones.
|
11-26-16 |
Spurs -7.5 v. Wizards |
|
112-100 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
Both teams played last night each winning. But prior to last night, the Wizards hadn't played in three days. They are the fresher team. The Spurs are playing for the third time on the road in four days. There's always the possibility of Gregg Popovich resting key players as he's done periodically this season San Antonio expanded a lot energy in beating the Celtics last night. The Spurs have won eight in a row, but they aren't blowing anyone out. Of their last seven victories, six have been by six points or fewer. The teams meet again in six days in San Antonio. So the Spurs have no reason to pour it on leaving the back-door open should the Wizards fall behind late.
|
11-26-16 |
Oregon -3 v. Oregon State |
Top |
24-34 |
Loss |
-111 |
21 h 9 m |
Show
|
The numbers are 34, 21, 24, 12, 27 1/2, and 16 1/2. Those are the spreads Oregon has been favored against Oregon State during the last six years. Oregon has won all of those games against arch-rival Oregon State with only one of the victories being by less than 10 points. Yes, Oregon fell off a cliff this season, their worst in two decades. But the Ducks still hold a major talent gap, are off a victory that shows they still can be dangerous are treating this matchup as their Super Bowl. I want all that going for me and this short spread is a path to involvement. Oregon State is having another crummy year at 3-8. That's to be expected. The Beavers are always a lower tier Pac-12 team. What's shocking is Oregon falling to 4-7. The Ducks, though, are coming off a 30-28 upset win of then-11th ranked Utah. That victory can't salvage a lost season for the Ducks, but it does give them confidence going into this traditional in-state rivalry matchup. Oregon's offense remains potent behind Justin Herbert. It's a big step down in defensive class that Oregon is used to seeing after facing Utah, Southern Cal and Stanford during its last three games. The road team has dominated this series going 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times. Oregon is 5-0 ATS the past five times playing at Oregon State.
|
11-25-16 |
Hawks +3.5 v. Jazz |
Top |
68-95 |
Loss |
-103 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
My interest always is raised when I see the better team getting points. That's the case in this matchup. It's a series the Hawks have dominated beating the Jazz nine of the past 10 times. Both teams halted losing skids with big victories on Wednesday. The Jazz have back point guard George Hill, but aren't likely to have big man Derrick Favors. The Hawks average eight more points per game than the Jazz. Utah is the stingiest defensive team in the league, but the Hawks have a top-seven defense. Atlanta gets excellent ball movement ranking third in assists per game and in assists on made baskets percentage. A rejuvenated Dwight Howard provides the Hawks with the necessary inside presence to counter the physical Jazz. Howard ranks in the top-five in the NBA in rebounds, field goal percentage and is eighth in blocks. It's a huge NBA menu today with every team in action. This game has the second-lowest total. Points will be at a premium so getting this many is big.
|
11-25-16 |
Boise State v. Air Force +9 |
Top |
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 30 m |
Show
|
Only once this season has Air Force been an underdog. That was as a one-point road 'dog to Army, a game the Falcons won, 31-12, three weeks ago. Now the Falcons are more than a touchdown 'dog to Boise State. No, I'm not buying that. Air Force has defeated the Broncos each of the past two years winning 37-30 in Boise last season and 28-14 at home in 2014. Air Force is the fourth-leading rushing team in the country. The Falcons' offense has gotten better with the switch to sophomore quarterback Arion Worthman. Air Force has won four in a row averaging 38 points during this span. Boise State has failed to cover eight of 11 games. They are going to have problems with Air Force's triple-option attack especially down two injured starting linebackers.
|
11-24-16 |
Vikings +2.5 v. Lions |
Top |
13-16 |
Loss |
-100 |
35 h 32 m |
Show
|
Minnesota owned the best defense in the NFL during the first five weeks holding opponents to 12.6 points per game in opening 5-0. The Vikings then got cold losing four in a row averaging 14 points a game during this span. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner bailed early this month and there were offensive line injuries. One of the Vikings' defeats during this time frame came to the Lions, 22-16, in overtime. The Vikings were playing their worst ball during this time yet the Lions were going to lose if not for a 58-yard field goal by Matt Prater at the end of regulation that forced overtime. Minnesota is playing better now having just defeated the Cardinals, 30-24, at home. The disadvantage of playing on the road on Thursday is mitigated here by the short travel and the Vikings familiarity with the Lions, who they played less than three weeks ago. Neither team can run the ball. Matthew Stafford was hot early in the season, but has cooled off considerably. He has not passed for more than 278 yards during his last seven games. The Lions could manage only one touchdown on offense versus the lowly Jaguars at home last Sunday. Stafford is averaging one touchdown pass per game in his last four games. That's not impressive in today's pass happy, offensive-skewed NFL. The Vikings hold a strong defensive and coaching edge here. Mike Zimmer is a defensive guru and he knows how to defend Stafford. The Lions are averaging 16.8 points in regulation in five games against the Zimmer-coached Vikings. Not once have the Lions been able to reach 20 points against Minnesota in regulation during the Zimmer era. The Vikings are used now to playing indoors on turf. Their offense showed signs of improvement last week more comfortable now that new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has had a few weeks to get acclimated.
|
11-23-16 |
Nuggets v. Jazz -5 |
|
83-108 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Jazz and they catch the Nuggets traveling off a pair of home wins playing for the third time in four days. It's also short revenge for the Jazz. They lost to the Nuggets just four days ago. Despite that loss, the Jazz still have covered nine of the last 12 in the series. It's a plus if George Hill is able to play for the Jazz. The Nuggets will be without Danilo Gallinari, their top offensive threat. He's out with a thigh injury.
|
11-23-16 |
Spurs -5 v. Hornets |
Top |
119-114 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
|
The Spurs have won six in a row, but Gregg Popovich isn't happy calling out his players after they barely beat injury-racked Dallas, 96-91, two nights ago. The Spurs rested LaMarcus Aldridge in that game. Tony Parker didn't play either. Charlotte isn't playing well losing four of its past six and may be without big man Cody Zeller, who is better than perceived. He's been out with a shoulder injury.
|
11-21-16 |
Raptors +9 v. Clippers |
Top |
115-123 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 41 m |
Show
|
It's a mistake for any team to lay this many points to Toronto. The Raptors did play last night losing in controversial fashion to the Kings in Sacramento. They are in a bitter mood following that loss when the referees waved off a game-tying shot by Terrence Ross at the buzzer. This is just a short trip from Sacramento to LA for the Raptors. Toronto is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing without rest. The Raptors swept the Clippers last season and have covered the past four times in the series. Before losing to the Kings, the Raptors had posted road victories against the Thunder and Hornets. They then beat the Knicks at home followed by a four-point road loss to the Cavaliers then a six-point loss to the Warriors and a road win against the improved Nuggets. The Clippers aren't better than the Cavaliers or Warriors yet they are laying more points to the Raptors than those teams did. The Clippers carry their own high fatigue rating, too, as this marks their seventh game in 11 days and third in four days. Following this matchup, the Clippers take off an 11-game road trip so their focus could be off. The Clippers have star power, but so do the Raptors. Their stars - DeMar Rozan, Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas - just don't draw the publicity that the Clippers' stars do because they aren't in a major U.S. media market.
|
11-20-16 |
Patriots -11 v. 49ers |
Top |
30-17 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 22 m |
Show
|
I consider the Patriots to be the team to beat in the Super Bowl. At the other end, I consider the 49ers right there with the Browns as the worst team in the NFL. You can talk that this is a long trip for the Patriots and they won't have injured Rob Gronkowski. But the Patriots still should bury this opponent especially given the circumstances. New England just lost at home to Seattle. That doesn't sit well with Bill Belichick. The Patriots have covered 74 percent of the time following a defeat during the past 43 instances. Since Week 1, the 49ers have gone 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS. Their defense has fallen apart due to their best players getting hurt and fatigue from their offense playing at such a fast-tempo. In their last eight games, the 49ers are giving up an average of 35 points and 460 yards. The Patriots are averaging 32 points per contest since Tom Brady came back from suspension five games ago. Brady has the highest passer rating in the league at 125.5 with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. LeGarrette Blount has put up the most touchdowns of any non-quarterback. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. But Martellius Bennett is a top-10 talent. San Francisco's offense has improved since Colin Kaepernick took over from Blaine Gabbert. But it remains limited and well below average. The 49ers are not going to be able to keep up with a motivated and mad Patriots squad that has an elite offense.
|
11-20-16 |
Jaguars +6.5 v. Lions |
|
19-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
44 h 51 m |
Show
|
The Lions haven't won a game by more than six points all season. They have a six-point overtime victory. Their other four victories were by a combined 11 points. The Jaguars actually gain more yards per game and give up fewer yards per game than the Lions. The Jaguars have outgained their last two opponents - Chiefs and Texans - by close to 280 yards. Those two teams are a combined 13-5. Jacksonville has an underrated pass defense and skill position talent. The Lions have a below average defense that was torched by Case Keenum at home and rank 27th in rushing yards. Matthew Stafford has tailed off after a hot start. He's gone six games in a row without topping 270 yards passing. Blake Bortles has been turnover prone, but he's connected for multiple touchdown passes in his last three games and is facing a Lions secondary that gives up the third-most touchdown passes and a league-high 112.4 passer rating.
|
11-20-16 |
Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys |
|
17-27 |
Loss |
-117 |
41 h 54 m |
Show
|
It's tough to step in against the Cowboys, who have won and covered every game since opening week. But Dallas' line is inflated here. The Ravens are well-coached and strong defensively allowing 17.8 points a game. Only three teams give up fewer points per game. No team yields fewer yards and rushing yards per game than Baltimore. The Ravens' four losses were by a combined 19 points for an average loss of 4.7 points. The Cowboys are flirting with danger. They narrowly defeated Pittsburgh last week pulling the game out late in a very hard fought battle. The Cowboys also had to go through the distraction of welcoming Tony Romo back this week. The Ravens, on the other hand, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. As a home favorite of six or more points, the Cowboys have failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times.
|
11-19-16 |
CS-Fullerton v. UNLV -7.5 |
|
68-77 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Rebels don't lack for talent and should play more relaxed after getting their first victory for new coach Marvin Menzies this past Wednesday. Fullerton has an excellent scorer in Tre Coggins, but the Titans are a very bad defensive team. They've given up triple digits in each of their last two games. The Titans are on the road and not in UNLV's class. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven non-conference games.
|
11-19-16 |
Duke +7.5 v. Pittsburgh |
|
14-56 |
Loss |
-118 |
21 h 7 m |
Show
|
Duke knows how to win on the road, can take advantage of a weak Pittsburgh secondary and catches the Panthers off a huge upset victory against Clemson.
The Panthers give up the second-most passing yards in the country and just lost safety and leading tackler Jordan Whitehead. He's out with an arm injury.
Going back the last three years, Duke is 14-6 away from home. Pitt hasn't been good at home failing to cover in 16 of its last 21 home contests.
|
11-18-16 |
UNLV +28.5 v. Boise State |
Top |
25-42 |
Win
|
100 |
58 h 9 m |
Show
|
Back in the 1990's, I covered the UNLV football team and have retained several key sources. It's a team I follow closely living n Las Vegas. I can tell you first-hand this Rebel team is different than what their previous teams from the past 30 years have been. Tony Sanchez is UNLV's best football coach since Harvey Hyde back in the early 1980's. Another big difference is these Rebels can be counted on for a full effort and can now be trusted on the road. That wasn't the case before Sanchez took over. The Rebels are about two-to-three star players away from being a serious conference contender, but they are vastly improved both talent-wise and mentally under Sanchez. UNLV hasn't lost by more than 23 points in any game this season and it has played some decent competition, including UCLA, Central Michigan, San Diego State and Colorado State. This is a rare nationally televised game (ESPN2) for the Rebels. Sanchez is an excellent recruiter and needs his team to be competitive to help boost recruiting.
If the Rebels were to spring the upset they would keep alive their bowl chances. UNLV has proven itself when stepping up. The Rebels just defeated Wyoming, 69-66, in triple overtime racking up 653 yards of total offense, including 401 rushing yards. The Rebels rank 14th in the nation in rushing and found the right quarterback as Kurt Palandech accounted for four touchdowns while throwing for 252 yards and running for another 157 against Wyoming in his first start. Wyoming beat Boise State just three weeks ago. The Broncos can be run on. San Jose State proved that rushing for 217 yards against them. So did New Mexico, which piled up 382 yards on the ground. Boise State is explosive but not the powerhouse of previous seasons. The Broncos often are overpriced especially when playing at home. That's the case again here. The Broncos have failed to cover their last eight home games. They are 7-22 ATS at home the past 29 times facing opponents with a losing road record. Boise State played at Hawaii last week and have a bigger game on deck next week playing at Air Force. That's the Broncos revenge game of the year as Air Force beat them in Boise last season.
The Broncos are going to need to force turnovers to cover a four-touchdown spread against this underrated opponent. Yet Boise State only has seven takeaways on the season. Just two teams in the entire FBS - which is composed of 128 teams - have fewer takeaways.
|
11-18-16 |
Pistons v. Cavs -8.5 |
|
81-104 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
Early betting activity has driven this number down. The Cavaliers are 6-1 at home but are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games at Quicken Loans Arena. I don't see the Cavaliers being overpriced here, though. The Cavaliers should be properly motivated and their superstars should log major minutes. LeBron James sat out Cleveland's last game. That was two nights ago when the Pacers upset the Cavaliers, 103-93, in Indiana. The Cavaliers don't play again until Wednesday following this game. Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games going back to last season. The Pistons are your classic good home team/bad road club. Detroit is giving up an average of 20 more points per game on the road while shooting 11 percent worst from the floor away from The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pistons have been on the road now in six of their last seven games. The Pistons last played on Wednesday losing to the Knicks, 105-102, at Madison Square Garden. The Pistons couldn't defend Kristaps Porzingis in that loss and also were outrebounded, 52-40. Andre Drummond returned for that game from an ankle injury. You have to wonder if he's 100 percent, though. The Pistons remain without their leading scorer and top point guard, Reggie Jackson.
|
11-17-16 |
Connecticut -7 v. Loyola Marymount |
Top |
65-62 |
Loss |
-105 |
12 h 12 m |
Show
|
Could Connecticut actually open the season 0-3? Nope. I see a focused Huskies squad shooting much better and having no problem with Loyola Marymount, an average at best team from the West Coast Conference.
The Huskies were rated 16th in the nation entering the season, but are 0-2 for the first time since 1968 with embarrassing home losses to Wagner and Northeastern this past Monday. Obviously the Huskies have under performed. Taking to the road could be good for the Huskies in this instance. Certainly a strong, motivated effort should be forthcoming here. That should be enough as there is quite a talent gap. "I'm very positive we can get out of this," Connecticut coach Kevin Ollie was quoted as saying. "I didn't want to be in this position, but I've been here before. I believe in myself, and I believe in this team." Mike Dunlap is in his third season as head man at Loyola Marymount. The Lions went 8-23 in his first season and 14-17 last year. They should be better this season, but certainly not in Connecticut's class. The Lions are 1-1 this season with a win against Wagner and a loss to Nevada-Reno. Connecticut should have its share of fans at the game. Ollie is from the Los Angeles area and the Lions are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 home games.
|
11-16-16 |
Warriors -5.5 v. Raptors |
Top |
127-121 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
The Warriors have won four in a row against the Raptors and the spot is ripe for them to continue that winning streak. After a slow start and transition period to newcomer superstar Kevin Durant, the Warriors have picked up the pace. They have won four consecutive games averaging 122.5 points during this span. Golden State is well rested and prepared. The Warriors last played Sunday at home and have been in Canada awaiting the Raptors. Toronto had to fly in from Cleveland in the wee hours of the morning following a tough 121-117 physically draining loss to the Cavaliers last night. Only two teams play at a faster pace than Golden State. The Warriors are hot and certainly have the scorers to take advantage of a tired Raptors squad.
|
11-15-16 |
Nets +6.5 v. Lakers |
|
118-125 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 59 m |
Show
|
The Nets have proven feisty this season usually providing a strong effort. They should be motivated here after getting blown out last night by the Clippers. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS following a loss. The Nets did hold out Brook Lopez, their best player, against the Clippers and didn't have any player log more than 29 minutes. The Lakers aren't as bad as they've been the past couple of years, but they remain inexperienced, don't play good defense and are prone to mistakes. They are at the same lottery level the Nets are. The Lakers have failed to cover six of the last eight times they've been chalk.
|
11-15-16 |
CS Bakersfield +17.5 v. Arizona |
Top |
66-78 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
Cal State Bakersfield is underrated and getting too many points just based on playing a Pac-12 opponent. The Roadrunners are a tough, physical defensive team. They won the WAC Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament last year giving Oklahoma problems in the first round. Bakersfield catches Arizona a bit fat and happy after the Wildcats knocked off then ninth-ranked Michigan State, 65-63, in Hawaii on a layup with 1.3 seconds left to open its season. The Wildcats didn't have Allonzo Trier, their top scorer from a year ago, in that game and he's not expected to play in this matchup. The Roadrunners have covered 14 of their last 16 games, including their past seven road games.
|
11-15-16 |
Dayton +1 v. Alabama |
|
77-72 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 60 m |
Show
|
Dayton is the better team and the Flyers proved it last year burying Alabama, 80-48, early in the season. Not enough has changed to make me think Dayton isn't the superior team again. The Flyers have all but one starter back and excellent depth with a 10-man rotation. They looked good in beating Austin Peay, 96-68, in their opener. Alabama didn't even make the NCAA Tournament last season. The Tide finished just three games above .500 and was knocked out in the first round of the NIT. Avery Johnson is a nice guy, but his coaching has never impressed me. The early start time should hold down attendance, too, cutting into the Tide's home-court edge.
|
11-14-16 |
Louisiana-Monroe +18 v. Texas |
|
59-80 |
Loss |
-106 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
Texas is very young with seven underclassmen in the rotation. The Longhorns were less than impressive in their opener beating Incarnate World, 78-73, this past Friday at home. Texas is 5-12 ATS during its last 17 lined non-conference matchups. Louisiana-Monroe opened with a 96-63 victory against Centenary. This is a huge step-up game for the Warhawks, but they have talent with junior college transfer Jordon Harris, Travis Munnings and Nick Coppola, a preseason third-team All-Sun Belt Conference selection.
|
11-13-16 |
Seahawks v. Patriots -7.5 |
|
31-24 |
Loss |
-100 |
95 h 33 m |
Show
|
At first this spread may seem a little high. But New England is the best team in football while Seattle is down from past seasons and caught in a horrendous situational spot. New England is 4-0 since Tom Brady returned. Brady has the highest QB rating in the league by far at 133.9. He's thrown 12 touchdown passes without an interception. The Patriots are averaging 34.2 points per game in Brady's four games winning by 20, 18, 11 and 16 points. Seattle lacks the skill position talent and offensive line to keep up with Brady. The Seahawks' grit and guts can't overcome that talent gap especially when they're missing at least one key defensive player. Safety Kam Chancellor may return this week, but star pass rusher Michael Bennett remains out. Making things worse for Seattle is the situation. The Patriots were idle last week. New England is 11-2 the past 13 times off a bye, 8-5 ATS. The extra practice time should make Brady even sharper. The Patriots also could get back Deion Lewis for this game, which would upgrade their ground attack and give Brady an upgrade pass-catcher out of the backfield. The Seahawks just played on Monday night at home in a tough physical, down-to-the-last-minute victory against Buffalo. Now the Seahawks have to travel 3,000 miles on a short week playing in a time zone with a three-hour difference.
|
11-13-16 |
Broncos +3 v. Saints |
|
25-23 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 33 m |
Show
|
I'm not buying the Saints being favored against the defending world champions whose defense remains elite. Denver ranks No. 1 against the pass holding foes to 183.3 yards through the air. Overall, Denver has the fourth-ranked defense. Von Miller has 9 1/2 sacks. He's the most feared pass rusher in football with J.J. Watt out. Drew Brees is not going to be able to pick Denver's secondary apart. By contrast, the Saints rank last in pass defense. Trevor Siemian isn't in Brees' class, not even close. However, the bar is set much lower for him facing such a terrible defense. The Saints are tied for last in sacks with just 11. Siemian has played better on the road, too, with eight touchdown throws and only one interception in four away matchups.
|
11-12-16 |
Colorado State +6 v. Air Force |
|
46-49 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 58 m |
Show
|
Colorado State is a bit under the radar improving each week. The Rams have covered in six of their last seven wins and are one win from being bowl eligible. They are fresh from having a bye two weeks ago and easily rolling past pathetic Fresno State last Saturday. Air Force is just 2-3 SU in its last five games, 1-4 ATS. The Falcons just beat rival Army, 31-12, on the road in a highly satisfying victory. This is a flat spot for the Falcons, who haven't faced a balanced offense such as Colorado State's all season.
|
11-11-16 |
Boston College +21 v. Florida State |
Top |
7-45 |
Loss |
-104 |
18 h 55 m |
Show
|
Boston College is an opponent Florida State has problems matching up against. The Eagles have trouble with mobile quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Florida State doesn't present that. Seminoles freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has rushed for under 90 yards on the season. The Eagles have held Florida State's offense to an average of 13 points during the past two years. The Seminoles offense could manage just seven points and 217 yards in last year's game winning 14-0 with one of their touchdowns coming on a defensive fumble return. Florida State barely nipped Boston College, 20-17, two seasons ago at home as 16 1/2-point underdogs. Boston College's strength is a run defense that ranks eighth in the nation and second in the ACC. Florida State heavily relies on the running of Dalvin Cook. Boston College can contain him. So it's going to be difficult for the Seminoles to cover by a margin of three touchdowns. Florida State has laid more than six points three times in its last five games, failing to cover each time. Boston College upset North Carolina State as a 16-point road 'dog two weeks ago. The Eagles then fell flat and had problems containing Heisman hopeful Jackson and Louisville last week losing by an embarrassing, 52-7. Look for Steve Addazio to have his Eagles motivated for this stand-alone Friday nationally televised (ESPN2) game. Boston College is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times following a non-cover.
|
11-11-16 |
Evansville v. Louisville -22 |
|
47-78 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
I like the Cardinals to blow out Evansville here. Rick Pitino has installed a new uptempo offense so the Cardinals are going to be playing very fast, which could catch their early-season opponents such as Evansville off guard.
Louisville has talent up and down its roster. The Cardinals have won 38 straight home games in November. Penn transfer Tony Hucks and freshman Ryan McMahon showed their talents in Louisville's 109-71 exhibition win against Kentucky Wesleyan last week.
|
11-10-16 |
Warriors -6 v. Nuggets |
|
125-101 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 52 m |
Show
|
Golden State is enduring some criticism this season with some of it being that the team is in transition losing their rim protectors and adjusting to the presence of superstar Kevin Durant. That talk was fueled when the Warriors were blown out by 29 points at home by the Spurs opening night. Since then, though, the Warriors have gone 6-1. It's business as usual as Golden State leads the league in points per game and also is the top shooting team in the NBA. The line is shorter than I'd it would come probably because the Warriors played last night and blew out Dallas by 21 points. I say the Warriors are in rhythm now and hot from beyond the arc. The Nuggets can't match that perimeter shooting. The Nuggets' rotation also is short a player as swingman Will Barton remains out. The Warriors are 18-9 ATS when playing on zero rest. They don't play again until Sunday when they host Phoenix. So the Warriors stars should play major minutes with no reason to hold anything back for this game. The Warriors also have revenge motivation having lost last season during their previous visit to Denver.
|
11-10-16 |
Browns +10 v. Ravens |
Top |
7-28 |
Loss |
-115 |
23 h 30 m |
Show
|
Rarely, if ever, am I going to recommend playing the Browns this season. Cleveland's talent level isn't better than expansion level and its priority this season is playing for the future not necessarily winning games. However, this is that rare spot where the Browns are worth backing. Baltimore is struggling mightily on offense. The change in offensive coordinators from Marc Trestman to Marty Mornhinweg three games ago hasn't helped. Joe Flacco is having one of his worst seasons with a 76 passer rating, the Ravens' ground game has been ineffective and their offensive line has been banged-up and isn't playing well either. There haven numerous mistakes and penalties. The Ravens are playing on a short week after just beating their biggest division rival, Pittsburgh, this past Sunday due in part to a rusty Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens could manage only 274 yards against a Steelers defense that ranked 27th in total yards entering the matchup. If you discount Mike Wallace's 95-yard touchdown catch, which came on a slant patter where Wallace took advantage of a missed tackle, the Ravens averaged less than three yards per play versus the Steelers. The Ravens have been outgained their last five games. Not one of Baltimore's games this season have been decided by more than eight points. The Browns are playing for next year, but they sure don't want to go winless. Their defense is better now with Jamie Collins than what it was in Week 2 when they lost to the Ravens, 25-20. The Browns led 20-0 in that game. They won't lack for motivation here and their familiarity with Baltimore is a key playing on Thursday. The Browns beat the Ravens, 33-30, at Baltimore last season.
|
11-09-16 |
Rockets v. Spurs -8 |
Top |
101-99 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 41 m |
Show
|
The Rockets are playing in their fifth straight road game and just beat Washington last night. The Spurs haven't played in four days. I'd rather have Gregg Popovich than any other coach with extra prep time. The Spurs have used this time to get healthier. Houston has played a lightweight schedule. The Rockets lack the defense to keep this game under double-digits. San Antonio has won the last three meetings against the Rockets by an average of close to 16 points per game.
|
11-07-16 |
Bills v. Seahawks -6.5 |
Top |
25-31 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
Count me among those not impressed by Buffalo. I think the Bills' coaching is below par, their passing game is weak and the defense not nearly as good as it was two years ago when Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator and before Rex Ryan came on board. Seattle has a couple of defensive injuries with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett out. The Seahawks still are very strong defensively. Buffalo could be missing two of its key offensive players if LeSean McCoy and left tackle Cody Glenn can't play due to injuries. The Bills actually would be doing the wise thing by holding out McCoy giving his sore hamstring another two weeks of rest since the team has a bye following this game. Injuries have limited Russell Wilson into being merely a glorified game manager. But Wilson is healthy now restoring his dangerous dual threat capability. I can see a big game coming from him. The Bills aren't likely to have run-stuffer Marcell Dareus. So the Seahawks should be able to run, which makes Wilson even more effective. The Bills are making a cross country journey into the toughest outdoor venue in the NFL. Since 2013, the Seahawks have won 28 of 32 home games.
|
11-06-16 |
Flames v. Ducks -1.5 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
155 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
The Ducks have just dominated the Flames in Anaheim beating them a mind-boggling 23 times in a row and 28 of the past 29. The Ducks defeated the Flames at home last season by five, three and two goals. Calgary ranks second-to-last in penalty killing and third-from-the-bottom in power play percentage. The Flames average 2.6 goals per game while giving up 3.5. Their best offensive player, Johnny Gaudreau, has a minus 11 ratio and Brian Elliott may be the most disappointing goalie in the league. The Flames carry a heavy fatigue ranking, too, playing in their fourth road game in six nights. The Flames' weariness showed in their last game, a 5-0 loss to the Kings. This is Calgary's third game in four nights. The Ducks last played on Friday and had an easy 5-1 win against Arizona. The Ducks go on the road for three games following this matchup so they should be focused.
|
11-06-16 |
Titans +5 v. Chargers |
Top |
35-43 |
Loss |
-110 |
96 h 27 m |
Show
|
Love the Chargers as 'dogs, hate them as favorites where they are 1-5 ATS the past six times in that role losing straight-up in four of those games. Tennessee just may be the best team in the AFC South Division. Now perhaps that's faint praise, but Tennessee is vastly improved in all areas. Backed by a resurgent DeMarco Murray and what now has become a decent offensive line, Marcus Mariota has thrown multiple touchdown passes during the last four weeks. The Titans have scored 26 or more points in each of their last four games. Consequently, San Diego gives up 26.5 points a game to rank 24th in scoring defense. The Chargers also are 24th in pass defense. Philip Rivers bravely soldiers on as the Chargers are one of the more banged-up teams in the league with a cluster injury problem at linebacker, down their best cornerback and with multiple receiver injuries. Rivers already has been playing minus his best receiver, Keenan Allen, and dependable third-down back Danny Woodhead. Dick LeBeau has helped coach up the Titans defense, which should get cornerback Perrish Cox back this week. The Titans' confidence is high after dismantling the Jaguars. They've also had extra time since that victory came last Thursday. This isn't a great spot for the Chargers, who have yet to have their bye. The Chargers lost to Oakland on the road in a division game four weeks ago. Then the Chargers upset Denver at home on national television in another division game. That was followed by an upset overtime road win against the Falcons and then last week the Chargers played another AFC West game losing a tough one to the Broncos in a huge matchup.
|
11-06-16 |
Jaguars +8 v. Chiefs |
|
14-19 |
Win
|
100 |
96 h 1 m |
Show
|
The Chiefs are a conservative, grind-out team not built to cover margins past a touchdown. Now the Chiefs will be without Alex Smith. The Chiefs already are thin at running back and have an overrated defense that doesn't apply much of a pass rush. That problem isn't likely to be corrected until Justin Houston returns to the lineup and he's not ready this week. The Jaguars do possess talent - on both sides of the ball. Blake Bortles has regressed this season, but still rates a clear edge over Chiefs back-up quarterback journeyman Nick Foles. The Chiefs are much more vulnerable to turnovers now with the downgrade from efficient game-manager Smith to Foles. Jacksonville has had extra prep and rest time for this matchup. The Jaguars are off an embarrassing Thursday night loss to the Titans. The Jaguars fired their offensive coordinator following the loss to the Titans. That could provide a needed spark. But mainly this handicap is a fade on the Chiefs, who are overpriced at home - where they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at Arrowhead - and taking advantage of Kansas City's injuries at the skill positions.
|
11-06-16 |
Lions v. Vikings -6 |
|
22-16 |
Loss |
-102 |
93 h 36 m |
Show
|
In Mike Zimmer we trust. The Vikings are coming off two terrible offensive performances. Their vaunted defense didn't cover themselves with glory either in an embarrassing Monday night road loss to the Bears. Norv Turner, the team's highly respected offensive coordinator, quit this week, too. The trade-off for all of this is getting the Vikings at home at a decent price against the Lions, a team that made Case Keenum look like a Pro Bowl quarterback three weeks ago when they were home and failed to keep the Texans and Brock Osweiler from scoring 20 points this past Sunday. How underrated is Zimmer? Minnesota has covered 19 of its last 24 games. The Vikings are 10-3 ATS as chalk. They have covered the past six times at home, including all three times this season. Minnesota has won five of those games with the only defeat coming, 10-9, in the playoffs last season when Vikings kicker Blair Walsh missed a 27-yard field goal with 22 seconds left. The Vikings are back home after two straight road defeats. Detroit's one-dimensional offense is going to have problems against the Vikings, who rank No. 1 in scoring defense and in the top four in fewest yards allowed and pass defense. Opponents average less than 15 points against Minnesota. I have little doubt the Vikings defense will do their job especially in their new stadium, which rivals any as far as providing Minnesota with a home field advantage. The key for the Vikings in covering this number is how much offense can they produce? Pat Schurmur replaces Turner as offensive coordinator. He actually might be a better fit since he has a history and closeness with Sam Bradford. Jerick McKinnon is expected to play after missing the Bears game. That would give the Vikings a back who can get outside plus a receiving threat out of the backfield to go with inside runner Matt Asiata. The Lions also have multiple key defensive injuries, the most important being to cornerback Darius Slay. He's dealing with a hamstring injury and may be held out another week since the Lions have a bye following this game.
|
11-05-16 |
Alabama v. LSU +8.5 |
Top |
10-0 |
Loss |
-114 |
56 h 38 m |
Show
|
Alabama won't finish the season unbeaten. How's that? Because the Crimson Tide are going to lose here in this toughest of tough road settings. Just in case, taking more than a touchdown with LSU is a tremendous cushion. Now I certainly respect Alabama. The handicap is based on LSU rather than negativity toward the Crimson Tide although losing defensive back/return Eddie Jackson for the season is a big blow for them. I like the way Ed Orgeron has turned around the Tigers. Talent was never the problem for LSU. Coaching was. Now that Les Miles is gone that talent is bubbling to the surface. The Tigers have outgained their past three opponents by an average of 259 yards a game. Even suffering with Miles' coaching, the Tigers could be unbeaten. They lost by two to the Badgers playing in Wisconsin and fell by five at Auburn when a last-second game-winning touchdown pass was nullified because the officials ruled time had run out. Alabama is not going to hold a talent edge here. The situation greatly favors LSU. The Tigers have had two weeks to rest and prepare because of Hurricane Andrew forcing postponement of their game against Florida and having a bye. The Tigers have a top-notch defensive coordinator in Dave Aranda, who was Wisconsin's defensive coordinator until coming to LSU. As a native of Wisconsin, I can tell you the Badgers hated to lose Aranda. Alabama hasn't faced this caliber of defense all season. This is a night game, which makes it even rougher when playing at LSU. The Tigers will be treating this as their national championship game. LSU has arguably the best running back in the country, Leonard Fournette. He's been slowed by an ankle injury. But Fournette rushed for 284 yards on only 16 carries against Mississippi during LSU's last game two weeks ago. He'll be 100 percent here. Mississippi is the one common opponent these two teams share. LSU defeated the Rebels by 17 points at home outgaining them by 191 yards. Alabama played the Rebels on the road and barely escaped winning, 48-43, aided by an 85-yard punt return touchdown by Jackson. The Crimson Tide were outgained by 35 yards in the contest.
|
11-05-16 |
Wisconsin v. Northwestern +7 |
|
21-7 |
Loss |
-116 |
38 h 1 m |
Show
|
Wisconsin always has trouble playing at Northwestern. The Badgers last won there in 1999. The Wildcats also beat the Badgers in Madison last year, winning 13-7. The key to that Northwestern victory was bottling up Wisconsin's ground game. The Badgers averaged just 1.9 yards per rush on 17 attempts. If Wisconsin can't run effectively, it can't beat a decent Big Ten team because of bad quarterbacking. The Wildcats are tough against the run again this season ranking 38th. Wisconsin thrives on being physical in the trenches. But the Wildcats are big and physical, too, on the defensive line. The Wildcats hold a skill position edge with quarterback Clayton Thorson, running back Justin Jackson, the No. 2 rusher in the Big Ten, and Austin Carr, who leads the Big Ten in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches. This is a dangerous spot, too, for Wisconsin. The Badgers have played five straight tough conference games: They upset Michigan State on the road, fell to Michigan, lost to Ohio State in overtime, beat Iowa in a hard-fought 17-9 game and last Saturday defeated Nebraska in overtime giving the Badgers two overtime games in the last three weeks. Northwestern has been playing well. The Wildcats had won three in a row and gave Ohio State a tough battle losing 24-20 on the road last week.
|
11-04-16 |
Spurs -3.5 v. Jazz |
Top |
100-86 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
|
Revenge and Gregg Popovich. That says it all here. I want the Spurs going for me and I'll lay a short road price to get them after Utah dealt San Antonio a 106-91 loss this past Tuesday at San Antonio. The Spurs haven't played since. They've had three days to stew about that loss and prepare for this short revenge spot. The Jazz are playing well.They played a perfect game against the Spurs while San Antonio was flat. I don't see that combination coming up here. The Jazz aren't a strong perimeter team, especially with top scorer Gordon Hayward out. Yet they knocked down 15 3-pointers against San Antonio. The line could be higher but Tony Parker won't play for San Antonio. Parker is vastly overrated, though, at this late stage of his career. Parker is in his 16th season and is averaging less than six points a game while hitting only 33 percent of his shot. Utah hasn't been good when stepping up in class failing to cover 12 of the last 15 times versus above .500 opponents.
|
11-02-16 |
Mavs +4 v. Jazz |
|
81-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
Dallas is getting into dire straits at 0-3. This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Mavericks and they catch the Jazz in a letdown spot. Utah came in with its "A" game and upset the Spurs, 106-91, as a 9 1/2-point road 'dog last night. I doubt the Jazz can put together consecutive games like that in back-to-back days relying on over-the-hill veteran Joe Johnson. He and George Hill logged big minutes in that victory. The Jazz are without leading scorer, small forward Gordon Hayward, and their backcourt depth is down minus Alec Burks. Dallas has covered 11 of its last 15 road games going back to last season. This is what Wesley Matthews was quoted as saying about tonight's game: "We can't slip anymore. Whatever the hell it takes, that's what we've got to do." The Mavericks should have Dirk Nowitzki back for the first time since their opening game. Dallas is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings versus the Jazz, including 4-1 ATS in Salt Lake City.
|
11-01-16 |
Warriors v. Blazers +5 |
Top |
127-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 30 m |
Show
|
Not surprisingly it is talking a while for the Warriors to get in sync with newcomer Kevin Durant on board. Golden State is 0-3 ATS beating the Pelicans by eight and Suns by six each on the road in its last two games. If the Warriors play as poorly as they did against those two lottery teams, they'll lose straight-up to the revenge-minded Trail Blazers. Portland has nearly everyone back from last year's 44-win total. The Trail Blazers played the Warriors tough in the playoffs last season covering two of the five games during the series and losing another one in overtime although failing to cover. Portland had a 12-point third quarter lead in that game. Golden State is nowhere near reaching its peak yet so it's a ripe time to draw the Warriors. Damion Lillard is outplaying Stephen Curry so far while stating his case as a legitimate MVP candidate. The Warriors are making only 26.7 percent of their 3-pointers while the Trail Blazers ranked sixth connecting on 39.1 percent of their 3-pointers. Portland also is averaging two more points per game than Golden State. This is the last stop on the Warriors' three game road trip. They host Oklahoma City on Thursday, which is a much bigger game for Durant going against his former team.
|
11-01-16 |
Bucks v. Pelicans -3 |
|
117-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
20 h 5 m |
Show
|
New Orleans is 0-3 desperate for a victory. The Pelicans are better than their record. Their last two games were against Golden State and San Antonio. New Orleans has the best big man in basketball, Anthony Davis. The Bucks have no answer for him. Milwaukee is 1-2 and lucky to have that record. The Bucks lost by 11 points at home to the Hornets, nipped the Nets (who were playing without rest) at home by two at the buzzer and were blown out by 15 points against the Pistons two days ago. Going back to last season, the Bucks have failed to cover in their last nine games. Andre Drummond dominated the Bucks' weak frontcourt scoring 20 points and pulling down 23 rebounds. That's ominous considering how much damage Davis can do against a perimeter-dominated team such as the Bucks. The Bucks are not in sync yet in addition to their below average frontcourt. Their keys are Giannis Antetokoumpo, Jabari Parker and Matthew Dellavedova. Newcomer Tony Snell should be a large part of Milwaukee's rotation, too. Antetokoumpo is Milwaukee's best player by far. He's also the Bucks' main ballhandler and he lacks chemistry at this early stage with Dellavedova and Snell, both of whom weren't with Milwaukee last season. Snell just joined the Bucks a few days ago. The Pelicans have covered five of the last six times they have hosted the Bucks.
|
11-01-16 |
Western Michigan v. Ball State +17.5 |
|
52-20 |
Loss |
-102 |
20 h 8 m |
Show
|
Western Michigan has a lot going. The Broncos are unbeaten, ranked in the top-25 and in line to play in a major bowl game. So it's easy to see why this line is over inflated. Ball State is at home and dangerous. The Cardinals rank 44th in yards per game. They have three good running backs - all healthy and available for the first time in four weeks - headed by James Gilbert. He leads the MAC in rushing touchdowns with 11 and has rushed for 100 yards in each of the last four games. Ball State has scored at least 20 points in every game. This is Ball State's biggest game. It's a huge revenge spot. The Cardinals were embarrassed by Western Michigan last year losing 54-7 on the road. They only lost by four points when they last hosted the Broncos two years ago. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS when getting points this season. They haven't lost by more than 10 points all season. The Cardinals are improved on both sides of the ball and are the least penalized team in the MAC. They are a running team that can play ball control to keep Western Michigan's potent offense off the field while not making mistakes.
|
11-01-16 |
Lakers +9 v. Pacers |
|
108-115 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
The Pacers aren't playing well enough to lay this many points against an improved Lakers team that does have some young talent. Monta Ellis and Jeff Teague are a poor defensive backcourt for indiana.
The Lakers are better coached now with Luke Walton while the Pacers are going through a huge transition and new style approach with their coaching change from half-court Frank Vogel to up-tempo Nate McMillan. The Lakers do well against these types of opponents rather than tough rebounding grinders like the Thunder, who they last played.
|
10-31-16 |
Vikings -4 v. Bears |
Top |
10-20 |
Loss |
-102 |
93 h 11 m |
Show
|
The Vikings are vastly superior to the Bears, a true Super Bowl contender. Chicago is one of the five worst teams in the NFL. This is a Monday night home game for the Bears. But they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. People in Illinois are excited about the Cubs in the World Series not the Bears. The Vikings are going to have their share of fans for this game so the Bears have a limited home field advantage. Minnesota is a point spread machine under Mike Zimmer covering 19 of the last 23 times. The Vikings are off an upset loss to the Eagles. Minnesota didn't play well in that game perhaps because it came following its bye week. Look for Zimmer to have the Vikings fully ready and motivated for this matchup. The Vikings entered this week ranked No. 1 defensively in fewest yards and points allowed. The Bears have Jay Cutler back at quarterback. That's not necessarily a plus for them. Cutler is a lame duck who the Bears don't want to keep after this season. Cutler's teammates rarely respond well to him. Chicago gives an effort defensively. The Bears just have too many injuries, though, and not enough talent. They rank among the bottom 12 in points surrendered. This is a mismatch not fully reflected in the point spread.
|
10-30-16 |
Eagles +5 v. Cowboys |
|
23-29 |
Loss |
-115 |
149 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is too many points for the Cowboys to lay in this fierce division rivalry. The Cowboys are 3-12 ATS the past 15 times they've been a home favorite. The Eagles have defeated Dallas in five of the last six meetings, including the past three times on the road. Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott both have exceeded expectations. The Cowboys have the better skill position players, but I like the Eagles defense better. The Cowboys lack a pass rush. They have just nine sacks. The Eagles' defense has been much better than perceived ranking third in fewest points and fifth in yards allowed. Dallas had a bye last week. That could work against the Cowboys as they had plenty of momentum before then. Too many times a team goes into their bye on a roll, hears how great they are and than is flat the following week. It happened to the Eagles and it just happened to the Vikings this past Sunday.
|
10-30-16 |
Lakers +8 v. Thunder |
|
96-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
The Thunder are overrated. They are 2-0 but their wins have been against the 76ers by six points and Suns at home in overtime. Russell Westbrook is going to get his points. He's also going to do it by taking a ton of shots. The Thunder are a different team without Kevin Durant. They grind out victories and aren't built to cover large margins. The Lakers are better coached under Luke Walton and have a young, talent base that is maturing with Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell. The Lakers' improvement was on display when they defeated the Rockets in their opener.
|
10-30-16 |
Bucks +7.5 v. Pistons |
|
83-98 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
The Pistons aren't strong enough to lay this many points in a division matchup, especially being forced to use journeymen Ish Smith and Beno Udrih at point guard until Reggie Jackson returns from injury. The Bucks are due to shoot better. Their bench has been upgraded with swingman Tony Snell, a healthy John Henson and what looks to be big improvement from Rashad Vaughn. Matthew Delladova gives the Bucks a toughness they lacked last season. Detroit lost its opener, but then buried the Magic by 26 points at home in its last game. The Pistons are 3-8 ATS following a cover.
|
10-30-16 |
Patriots -5.5 v. Bills |
Top |
41-25 |
Win
|
100 |
147 h 36 m |
Show
|
It's rare to get Bill Belichick and his Patriots in a same season revenge game. But that's the case here as the Bills shut out the Patriots, 16-0, in Week 4. New England was forced to play third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett in that game. Now Tom Brady is back. The Patriots are going to be extremely fired-up for this game. They had never been shut out at home in the 15-year history of Gillette Stadium before that first Buffalo game. Brady has numerous offensive weapons. LeGarrette Blount is having a big year, too, providing the Patriots with a needed power back. The situation is quite different than it was four weeks ago when Brady still was under suspension and the Bills had a healthy LeSean McCoy. Not only is McCoy hobbled by a hamstring injury, but the Bills also are without their best receiver, Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor is an excellent running quarterback, but he's not a strong downfield passer. Belichick will be able to defend Buffalo's one dimensional attack. Taylor needs weapons to succeed. He doesn't have them. The Bills' 4-3 record is deceiving. Besides taking advantage of New England's dire quarterback problems, they also beat the Rams and 49ers. Miami exposed Buffalo this past Sunday outgaining the Bills by 187 yards and holding a 14-minute time possession edge. The Bills don't figure to hang around based on turnovers either as New England quarterbacks haven't thrown an interception all season. Before losing to the Bills, the Patriots had defeated Buffalo 30 of the past 32 times. The Patriots have rolled past the Bills by a touchdown or more in 21 of their last 27 victories. New England has a bye the following week. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS the past four times before a bye. They will be holding nothing back. This is a kill spot for the Patriots with the talent and situation stacked in their favor.
|
10-29-16 |
Nets v. Bucks -6 |
Top |
108-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 6 m |
Show
|
Milwaukee is likely looking at being 0-3 if it loses this game. So motivation should be high. The Bucks' starters didn't play well with the exception of Giannis Antetokounmpo when they lost at home in their opener, 107-96, to Charlotte this past Wednesday. The Hornets are off to a fast 2-0 start after beating the Heat on the road Friday night. Now the Bucks step way down in class facing the Nets - a team oddsmakers assigned the lowest over/under win total - at home. After this matchup, the Bucks travel to Detroit to play the Pistons on Sunday in a game they will be underdogs in. Brooklyn is 2-0 ATS getting a cover in its opener against the overpriced Celtics and upsetting the Pacers at home last night. It's going to be extremely rare to find the Nets in a happy and fat state. This is one of those rare times. The Nets are playing in their third game in four days. They have to go back on the road and then come back home to host the Bulls and Dwayne Wade on Monday. Brooklyn is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road contests and 0-6 ATS when playing without rest going back to last season. The Bucks have dominated the Nets winning 11 of the past 15 meetings, including all three times last season. This is extremely satisfying for Bucks coach Jason Kidd, who played and coached for the Nets and left that franchise on bad terms. Kidd will hold no qualms about trying to bury the Nets at home.
|
10-29-16 |
Army v. Wake Forest -6.5 |
|
21-13 |
Loss |
-115 |
44 h 47 m |
Show
|
Wake Forest has defeated Army nine straight times. The Demon Deacons were idle last week giving them a needed break and extra prep time to work on stopping Army's one-dimensional option offense. You must be able to stop the run to beat Army. Wake Forest can do that giving up less than 120 yards per game on the ground and 3.4 rushing yards per carry. The Deacons know that a victory makes them bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. So they should have plenty of motivation. Army has fallen back to Earth after opening 3-0, including an upset victory over Temple. The Black Knights are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games. They have a much bigger game for them next week when they host rival Air Force for the Commander-in-Chief Trophy. Both teams played Duke this season. Army lost 13-6 to the Blue Devils three weeks ago, while Wake Forest defeated Duke, 24-14, on the road in Week 2.
|
10-29-16 |
Michigan v. Michigan State +24.5 |
Top |
32-23 |
Win
|
100 |
40 h 19 m |
Show
|
This truly has been the season in hell for Michigan State and Mark Dantonio. It's the first time in 25 years the Spartans have dropped five games in a row. Before the season began, oddsmakers lined this game as Michigan minus four. Now look at the spread! Sure Jim Harbaugh has resurrected Michigan and Michigan State may be the most disappointing team in the nation along with Notre Dame. But the Spartans still have great athletes and Dantonio hasn't all of a sudden become a lousy coach. If there is one time for the rest of this season that Michigan State gets up for a game this will be that time. The Spartans have beaten the Wolverines seven of nine times under Dantonio, including the past five. Michigan is 0-8 ATS the past eight times these two teams have met. Michigan State usually is at its best in a 'dog role. Since the middle of the 2011 season, the Spartans are 12-2-1 ATS when catching points. Michigan has played only one road game - and that was against pathetic 2-6 Rutgers. The Wolverines play their home games on FieldTurf. This game is on a grass field. The Wolverines are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
|
10-28-16 |
Magic v. Pistons -4 |
Top |
82-108 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 0 m |
Show
|
Detroit has won and covered in its last six games versus the Magic, winning those games by an average of 15.5 points per game. But now the Magic have retooled with a new coach and a more physical frontcourt. Will it make a difference? Maybe down the road, but not here. This is Orlando's second game. The Magic have seven new players. It's going to take them a while to get in sync. The Magic didn't look good in their opener, a 108-96 home loss to Miami that no longer has Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng. The Pistons are off a bad loss, too, opening with a 109-91 road defeat to Toronto. Fiery Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy ripped his team's lack of defense and rebounding in that game. Look for the Pistons to come back strong at home where they covered 63 percent of the time last season.
|
10-27-16 |
Wizards +4.5 v. Hawks |
Top |
99-114 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
The Wizards are dangerous when motivated and their star backcourt is healthy. Both factors are in play here. The Randy Wittman era mercifully ended in Washington. New coach Scott Brooks is an upgrade as the Wizards have the talent to not only make the playoffs - which they embarrassingly failed to do last season - but win a playoff series or two. That's because they have a backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Wall is an elite point guard while Beal is a tremendous talent who has had trouble staying healthy. He averaged 17.4 points last season in 55 games and starts this season at 100 percent. The Wizards should get improvement from young players Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre Jr. I'm expecting a better year, too, from big man Marcin Gortat. The Hawks lost Al Horford and gained way past-his-prime Dwight Howard. That's a downgrade. Atlanta also has a major question at point guard entrusting Dennis Schroder to replace departed All-Star Jeff Teague. Schroder is a wild card. He's backed up by unheralded Malcom Delaney. I give the Wizards a huge backcourt check mark in this matchup.
|
10-26-16 |
Heat +4 v. Magic |
Top |
108-96 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 41 m |
Show
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Miami has won six of its last seven season-openers, including the past five. That's a nice history going into this matchup, but no longer do the Heat have any of their Big Three as LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are all gone. Still, look for the Heat to make it six straight season-opening victories. Miami is down. but not as much as perceived. Goran Dragic is good and in line for his best season with Wade gone to the Bulls. Hassan Whiteside is a top-six big man. Justice Winslow holds a lot of promise. The Heat have depth and a system in place. Eric Spoelstra has been the head coach since 2008. Orlando holds promise, but is in transition right now. The Magic have a new coach, Frank Vogel, and are breaking in seven new players. The Heat have an identity. The Magic are seeking one. Vogel is changing the Magic installing a slowdown, smashmouth style. It's going to take time for this system to work. Orlando went 2-5 in preseason. One of those defeats was 107-77 to the Heat in Miami. Whiteside and Winslow - two of Miami's three best players - didn't even play. The Magic aren't going to be able to dominate the boards against Whiteside, who led the league in blocks and was No. 3 in rebounding last season. Note, too, that the Magic won't have physical big man Bismack Biyombo for this game. He's serving a one-game suspension for flagrant fouls committed accumulated during last season's playoffs when he played for the Raptors.
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10-25-16 |
Jazz v. Blazers -5 |
Top |
104-113 |
Win
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100 |
26 h 52 m |
Show
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Oddsmakers are high on Utah projecting the Jazz to win 47 1/2 games. Utah was 40-42 last season. Utah could very well be improved, but this isn't the time to jump on the Jazz. The Jazz are trying to combine youth with a number of imported veterans, including point guard George Hill, Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson. It's going to take time for the mix to get in sync. Things are made far worse for Utah because of injuries. Out until at least mid-November is the Jazz's best offensive player, Gordon Hayward. He has a broken finger. Guard and sixth man Alec Burks is out, too, with a knee injury and big man Derrick Favors is questionable with a knee injury. Those three players averaged close to a combined 50 points per game and all were a key part of Quin Snyder's rotation. If the oddsmaker knew now what he didn't know a month ago, Utah's win total would have been lower. This is what Hill was quoted as saying about his team: "It's tough because we don't have a full roster right now. And without a full roster, it's kind of hard to see exactly where we're at. Our focus right now is to get everybody healthy. ..." The Trail Blazers are poised to start fast with nearly everyone back from their 44-win team of a year ago, a team that reached the second round of the playoffs by beating the Clippers and then proved competitive against the Warriors. Portland holds a huge backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The Trail Blazers' backcourt was upgraded, too, with swingman Evan Turner joining the team. The two teams just met in a dress rehearsal this past Wednesday at Salt Lake City. Portland won, 88-84, on the road. The Trail Blazers won despite getting only eight free throw attempts compared to the Jazz making 19 of 23 free throws. Portland beat Utah in three of four regular season meetings last season. Lillard didn't play in the game the Trail Blazers lost to the Jazz. Portland is 5-1 SU the past six times hosting Utah, going 2-0 last season winning by an average of nine points.
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10-23-16 |
Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons |
Top |
33-30 |
Win
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100 |
76 h 9 m |
Show
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The Falcons are playing well, but face both a physical and mental letdown returning home from back-to-back road games against the bruising Broncos and Seahawks. This game figures to be a shootout between Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. The Chargers are 2-4, but could be undefeated with better luck. They have outscored their opponents by 18 points. So their record is highly misleading. The Chargers' confidence is up, though, after they beat the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos. That occurred last Thursday so the Chargers have had ample time to rest and prepare. Rivers can definitely take advantage of a soft Falcons defense that has multiple injuries at linebacker and doesn't rush the passer well. San Diego has covered 20 of the last 29 times it has been a road 'dog. Mike McCoy has been under fire as Chargers head coach, but his team has covered eight of their past 10 games.
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10-22-16 |
Middle Tennessee State v. Missouri -7.5 |
|
51-45 |
Loss |
-106 |
26 h 29 m |
Show
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The class difference here should result in Missouri winning by double-digits.The Tigers drop down from SEC opponents needing a victory to keep alive their bowl hopes. The Blue Raiders haven't knocked off an SEC foe in 11 years. That's because SEC teams are stronger, quicker and more athletic. Middle Tennessee State went against Vanderbilt earlier this season and lost 47-24. That's a telling sign because the Commodores are mediocre. Missouri's defense should play much better against this foes and its balanced offense will put up points against a Middle Tennessee State defense that has allowed nearly 1,200 yards and six touchdowns through the air during the last three games. The Blue Raiders could have fatigue issues, too, coming off a double-overtime loss to Western Kentucky.
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10-22-16 |
TCU +6.5 v. West Virginia |
Top |
10-34 |
Loss |
-109 |
26 h 8 m |
Show
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West Virginia has been a nice surprise, but I like TCU here. I'm not sold on West Virginia's defense, nor the Mountaineers' ability to control the trenches. The Horned Frogs have 21 sacks. The line is too high here based somewhat on the Mountaineers' 48-17 road victory against Texas Tech last week. That was West Virginia's best game of the season. The Mountaineers will be hard-pressed to duplicate that effort. They have failed to cover seven of the last eight times they've gone against an above .500 foe. TCU averages 40.2 points per game. The Horned Frogs have a balanced offense and a pair of standout defensive players in linebackers Ty Summers and Travin Howard. It's significant that the Horned Frogs were idle last week. Not only are they 12-1 following a bye, but they could have key reinforcements playing in this game. There is optimism at TCU that the Horned Frogs will have star receiver and kick returner KaVontae Turpin back from a knee injury plus center Austin Schlottmann returning from a foot injury. The Horned Frogs could further be bolstered by having cornerback Julius Lewis and offensive lineman Trey Elliott available for the first time this season. Both have missed the season due to injuries.
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10-16-16 |
Colts v. Texans -3 |
Top |
23-26 |
Push |
0 |
125 h 45 m |
Show
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This line is off. These teams aren't even, which the oddsmaker is insinuating opening the game Houston minus 3 with home-field usually worth a field goal. The Texans have a strong defense. They rank fifth in fewest yards allowed and are No. 1 in pass defense. The Colts have a defense for the ages - the dark ages. It's one of their worst ever, which is saying a lot. Indy just allowed the Bears and backup quarterback Brian Hoyer to roll up 522 yards in a six-point home win that was closer than the score may indicate. The Texans beat the Bears by nine points opening week and the Bears have regressed since then due to multiple injuries. I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler. But the Texans' offensive line should be much improved with the return of left tackle Duane Brown. Osweiler has a top-five wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and a solid running back in Lamar Miller. The Colts are giving up 29.6 points a game, fourth-worst in the NFL, and are 30th in yards given up. Indy wins games by outscoring opponents in shootouts. The Colts have been fortunate to draw below average defenses in four of their first five games. Their offensive line is inexperienced and can't protect Andrew Luck, who already has been sacked 20 times. The Texans have a strong pass rush even without injured J.J. Watt with emerging stars Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. Look for the Texans to dominate both lines of scrimmage - and the game.
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10-16-16 |
Chiefs +1.5 v. Raiders |
Top |
26-10 |
Win
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100 |
127 h 17 m |
Show
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I like the Chiefs a lot here for three main reasons: They are the superior team. The situation. And the line value with the Raiders opening the favorite. Oakland is much improved. Granted. But the Chiefs have won five of the past six meetings. They have the better defense and superior ground attack. Derek Carr is an emerging star. Alex Smith wins, though. The Chiefs are 13-3 in their last 16 games with Smith behind center. The Raiders are facing a triple whammy here. They are fat and happy riding a three-game winning streak, including holding off San Diego this past Sunday for a big AFC West Division victory. The Chiefs are off their worst loss since Andy Reid took over - an embarrassing 43-14 nationally televised Sunday night loss to the Steelers. That was two weeks ago. The Chiefs were idle last week. So they will have had two weeks to stew about that defeat. No coach is better off a bye than Reid. His Eagles and Chiefs teams are 15-2 after being idle the week before. That's 88 percent for a 17-game sampling. Oakland has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 home contests. The Raiders are 7-23 ATS the past 30 times laying points, including failing to cover the past five times they've been home chalk. The Raiders may not have their best running back, Latavius Murray, again. The Chiefs' star running back, Jamaal Charles, should be ready now for full-time duty. Smith has weapons with Charles, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin. The Raiders give up the most total yards and passing yards in the NFL. They also rank 27th in run defense.
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10-15-16 |
Arizona State +12 v. Colorado |
Top |
16-40 |
Loss |
-108 |
29 h 56 m |
Show
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Colorado isn't used to be in this lofty role - and the Buffaloes don't deserve to be nearly two touchdowns favorite here against a Pac-12 foe that isn't any less talented, bigger and faster than they are. The Sun Devils have dominated this series winning the past seven times, covering six of the seven. Arizona State holds a special teams edge and can stop Colorado's ground attack. The Sun Devils rank fifth nationally in run defense and first in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils average 39.7 points and 434.8 yards per game. So they will present a supreme challenge to the Buffaloes especially with starting quarterback Manny Wilkins able to play.
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10-15-16 |
Kansas State +13 v. Oklahoma |
|
17-38 |
Loss |
-105 |
21 h 1 m |
Show
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I love Bill Snyder as a big road 'dog. The Wildcats have covered 17 of their last 22 as a road 'dog. Kansas State has beaten Oklahoma during its past two trips to Norman as underdogs. The Sooners buried the Wildcats, 55-0, last season. But the Wildcats were decimated with injuries for that matchup. The key here is that the Wildcats are healthy this time around and Jesse Ertz is making a difference at quarterback. The Wildcats will be extra motivated remembering that beat down from last season. Ertz can put up points against a very vulnerable Sooners defense that gives up more than 36 points per game and ranks 114th in pass defense. The Sooners are a top-20 offensive team, but Kansas State has held all six of its foes under their season low in yards, including holding Texas Tech to 17 points below its scoring average and West Virginia to 12 points below its scoring average during the past two weeks.
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10-13-16 |
Broncos -3 v. Chargers |
Top |
13-21 |
Loss |
-123 |
57 h 54 m |
Show
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San Diego has lost its last 10 AFC West matchups. I don't see that streak ending with this game. The Chargers are banged-up in the secondary - missing two of their three best cornerbacks in Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers - and Philip Rivers doesn't have several of his key offensive weapons, including Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. The Chargers' offensive line is going to have problems handling Von Miller, who already has 6 1/2 sacks, and the rest of the Denver pass rush. The Falcons were able to run on the Chargers. I don't see the Chargers doing that. Melvin Gordon has found the end zone this year, but he's far from an elite running back. Denver is fuming from losing at home to Atlanta. The Broncos defense did their job even though it permitted more than 20 points for the first time in 10 games. The Broncos were done in by the inexperience of rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch starting his first NFL game. Denver's blocking was below par, too, minus right tackle Donald Stephenson and tight end Virgil Green. Word is both Stephenson and Green will be ready for Thursday game. Another key is that regular quarterback Trevor Siemian also will be ready. Broncos coach Gary Kubiak is expected to miss the game, hospitalized because of complex migraines. I see this as even more incentive for the Broncos to win one for their coach especially coming off a home loss. San Diego may have the worst home field advantage of any team in the league. The Chargers find ways to lose nearly every week having blown leads to the Chiefs, Colts and Saints. Now they draw the defending champs, a team that really knows how to win.
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10-10-16 |
Nationals +1.5 v. Dodgers |
|
8-3 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
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The Nationals should be able to hang in with the Dodgers in this spot - if not win outright with lefty Gio Gonzalez facing rookie Kenta Maeda. No team had a lower batting average versus southpaws than the Dodgers at .213. Gonzalez has taken advantage posting a 3-1 lifetime mark against the Dodgers with a 1.69 ERA in five career starts. LA's batters have a combined .163 average when facing Gonzalez. Maeda has been consistent all season. But he's hit the wall giving up eight runs in his last two starts spanning just 6 2/3 innings. Since the All-Star break, Maeda has a 4.25 ERA. He's not the same pitcher he was during the first half of the season when teams had never faced him. The Nationals are 12-3 in their last 15 games if plus 1 1/2 runs, while the Dodgers are 1-8 in their past nine games at minus 1 1/2 runs.
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10-09-16 |
Chargers +4 v. Raiders |
Top |
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
140 h 15 m |
Show
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The Chargers are 1-3, but have outscored their opponents by 13 points. The Raiders are 3-1 and have outscored their foes by two points. The Chargers have led by double-digits at halftime in three of their games. They have blown three fourth-quarter leads. They are a frustrated bunch who are averaging more than 30 points a game and have a decent secondary. Philip Rivers has a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is on pace to throw for 4,440 yards. He's having another splendid season. Melvin Gordon has rushed for six touchdowns. The Chargers will get their points against a Raiders defense that ranks in the bottom-three in total yards, rush yards and pass yards. The Raiders are returning from their third long trip in four weeks. They aren't as desperate as the Chargers, who also have double-revenge motivation.
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10-09-16 |
Bengals v. Cowboys |
|
14-28 |
Loss |
-115 |
77 h 26 m |
Show
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The Bengals are at least a whole another tier higher than Dallas. The Cowboys are thrilled when they beat the lowly 49ers. The Bengals - who have made the playoffs five straight years - expect to the beat the 49ers. That's a huge difference between these two. The Cowboys lack the experience at the skill position the Bengals have. They also don't have Cincinnati's veteran savvy. The Bengals have covered in nine of their last 10 road contests, while Dallas has lost straight-up eight of its last nine home games. The Cowboys gave up 300-yard passing games to Brian Hoyer and Kirk Cousins. They allowed Eli Manning to throw for three touchdowns. Dallas doesn't have the pass rush nor the secondary to defend against A.J. Green. The Cowboys aren't going to get passes air-mailed to them like they did this past Sunday with Blaine Gabbert.
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10-09-16 |
Texans +6.5 v. Vikings |
|
13-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 16 m |
Show
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This is going to be a defensive, grind-it-out type of game as reflected in the total, which is the second-lowest on the Week 5 menu. So taking a lot of points makes sense especially given the matchup and spot. The Texans get a big boost to their offense with left tackle Duane Brown slated to make his season debut. I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler, but steady Lamar Miller and Brown back will take the pressure off the Houston quarterback. Miller is a "B" type running back who forces the Vikings to respect the run. Minnesota has an outstanding defense, but so does Houston. The Texans give up the fewest passing yards per game. They've allowed only one touchdown throw all season, none in their past three games. Only four teams yield fewer yards per game than the Texans, who surrender barely 18 points per game. The Vikings employ backup running backs and aren't likely to have their top wide receiver and spark plug, Stefon Diggs. That leaves Sam Bradford, who is still learning the offense, without a reliable target. This spot isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings showcased their new stadium three weeks ago against Green Bay on Sunday night, knocked off defending NFC champion Carolina on the road two weeks ago in a prove-it-to-me matchup and defeated the Giants at home this past Monday night. The Vikings have a bye after this game.This matchup for the Vikings is against a non-marquee, non-division opponent, a letdown for them after their previous three challenges and high profile games.
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