Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-04-23 | Sparks v. Mystics -3.5 | 77-79 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
These are the two hardest-hit injury teams in the WNBA. Washington still isn't going to have Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin, but I see the Mystics covering this number. The Mystics are 12-13. Los Angeles is 9-17 having lost 10 of its past 12 games. LA is 2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS on the road and this is a difficult away spot. The Sparks hosted the Liberty this past Tuesday. This is their first road contest since July 22 and it's a cross-country trip. Washington is below .500 for the first time this season. The Mystics have been idle since Sunday when they finished a three-game, five-day road trip going 0-3. They should be rested, prepared and motivated for this matchup. The Mystics are 8-4 at home. They have covered seven of their last eight home contests. |
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08-03-23 | Dream v. Mercury +7.5 | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Phoenix is 6-19, tied for the worst record in the WNBA. Atlanta is a middle-level team. So the point spread may seem right. But I see this being a much closer game than the spread indicates. Four things give me optimism the Mercury can stay within this number: No. 1: The game is in Phoenix. The Mercury are dreadful on the road, but a respectable 6-7 at home. The Dream are playing at a different arena for the fourth time in a row. No. 2: Short revenge. The Dream defeated Phoenix, 78-65, when they hosted them on July 25. The Mercury made only 5-of-24 (21 percent) 3-pointers. Brittney Griner played in that game. She missed 12 of 19 shots from the field and had a point differential of minus 20. Griner won't play today. So that actually could be a positive given how poorly she played against the Dream in the previous meeting. No. 3: Phoenix has the better defensive number. The Mercury give up a point fewer per game than Atlanta. No. 4: The Diana Taurasi factor. The 41-year star guard remains a very good player and a fiery force. Taurasi is the league's all-time leading scorer. If she scores more than 18 points today, she'll pass 10,000 career points. Phoenix fans are aware of that and will be rooting hard for her. So the fans and team should very much be motivated. |
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08-01-23 | Dream +14.5 v. Aces | Top | 72-93 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
Atlanta hasn't been this large of an underdog all season. The Aces are having a record-breaking season, but this is too many points for them to lay. The Dream have picked up their game winning nine of their last 12. Like the Aces, they have star power with three All-Stars. Atlanta won't lack motivation. Las Vegas, on the other hand, is off a highly-satisfying 13-point home revenge win against Dallas this past Sunday. The Aces' next game is a marquee matchup on the road against New York, the other superpower in the WNBA. So this is a sandwich spot for the Aces, who once again will be without injured starter Candace Parker. The teams last met a month ago in Atlanta. The Dream covered for the fourth time in the last five meetings between the two teams. Las Vegas only was able to win, 92-87. |
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07-31-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
It took to the end of July. But the Padres, with their $250 million payroll, finally showed something sweeping the Rangers three games at home. That puts San Diego five games out of a wildcard spot. It probably means the Padres won't be sellers before Tuesday's trade deadline. It also means the Padres will be taking this game very seriously since it's the day before the trade deadline. There's no reason the Padres shouldn't be riding their new-found momentum with a multiple-run road victory here, especially being assured of getting nine innings of at bats. The Rockies have the worst record in the National League. Colorado also just dealt two of its four best power hitters, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, for prospects. The Padres should score a boatload of runs going from Petco Park to Coors Field and drawing Austin Gomber, who has a 7.19 home ERA. Gomber has pitched 10 innings against the Padres this year and given up 10 runs. Underrated Seth Lugo draws the start for San Diego. Lugo is in good form giving up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Lugo faced the Rockies once this season and held them to one run in seven innings. |
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07-30-23 | Calgary +2.5 v. Montreal | Top | 18-25 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
There are three elite teams in the CFL - Toronto, BC and Winnipeg. The other six CFL teams are all below .500. Calgary is 2-4. Montreal is 2-3. The Stampeders have a higher ceiling than Montreal. Their won-lost record is a bit misleading with two of their losses coming to BC and Winnipeg. The other two defeats occurred in overtime by a combined five points. Montreal has lost three in a row. Those defeats were to Toronto, Winnipeg and BC by an average of 12.6 points. This really is a must-win spot for the Stampeders since their next four games are against Toronto, BC, Winnipeg and Toronto again. Calgary can't take a loss here to the Alouettes with that murderous schedule ahead of them. The Stampeders rank fifth in both offense and defense yardage. They are the fourth-highest scoring team. QB Jake Maier is off his finest game throwing for 450 yards and four TD's in a 43-41 overtime loss to Ottawa last week. I like the Stampeders to win the battle of the trenches in this one. The Alouettes have allowed a league-worst 26 sacks in just five games. Calgary has covered 75 percent of its last 21 road games going 15-5-1 ATS. |
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07-30-23 | Mystics v. Dream -6.5 | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
Atlanta is several tiers below the elite teams of the WNBA, specifically the Aces, Liberty and Sun. But the Dream have been playing their best ball winning eight of their past 11 games. They are a tier ahead of the Mystics, who are having trouble competing given all of their injuries. Washington is 1-4 in its last five games. The Mystics have failed to cover in their last five road games. They continue to be without superstar Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin. Those are three of their top five scorers. They aren't likely to have Queen Egbo either after she hurt her ankle in Washington's last game. Egbo was a front-court rotation player hoping to provide rebounding and interior defense with Delle Donne and Austin out. |
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07-30-23 | Lynx v. Sun -11.5 | 87-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
It's not the Aces, nor the Liberty, who have the best point spread record in the WNBA. It's the Sun. Connecticut is 14-9-1 (61 percent) ATS. The Sun are tied with the Liberty for the second-best record in the league at 18-6. The Sun are in a great spot to win big against visiting Minnesota. The Lynx are in a huge letdown spot after upsetting the Liberty, 88-83, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Friday. The Lynx also carry a high fatigue rating. This is their third game in five days. Connecticut, by contrast, has been idle since Tuesday. Minnesota is without its best player, All-Star Napheesa Collier. She leads the Lynx in scoring by a wide margin and in rebounding. The Sun have covered in six of their last seven games against Minnesota. They are 2-0 versus the Lynx this season winning both times on the road by five and 21 points in the last meeting. |
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07-29-23 | BC -7 v. Edmonton Elks | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
Even with backup QB Dane Evans, BC should beat winless Edmonton by more than a touchdown. The Elks have lost an unbelievable 20 straight home games, going 3-17 ATS in those games. The Lions are 5-1 this season. All of their victories have been by double-digits. Their average victory margin is 16.4 points. They have the No. 2 defense in the CFL. This includes a 22-0 victory against the Elks at home in Week 2. Edmonton has lost by double-digits when playing the elite teams of the CFL - Toronto, BC and Winnipeg. The Elks rank second-to-last in the league defensively. Evans won't have Dominique Rhymes, but he still has other good receivers in Keon Hatcher, Justin McInnis and Lucky Whitehead. The Lions are deep at receiver. Evans also should be able to rely on a ground attack. Edmonton has the worst run defense in the CFL. The Elks also have the worst offense in the league, ranking last in yards per game and scoring at 15 points per game. |
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07-28-23 | Mystics +9.5 v. Wings | 62-90 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
The Mystics are down three starters, including their superstar forward, Elena Delle Donne. But Washington has proven to be spunky and resilient. The Mystics have lost by more than nine points only once in their last 14 games. Washington has covered each of the past four times following a loss. Dallas also lost in its last game, 88-83 at home to Connecticut. That halted the Wings' five-game win streak. The Wings showed in that loss they are not among the elite teams in the WNBA. The Wings may have lost their mojo in that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead game up next playing the Aces in Las Vegas on Sunday. Washington is the better defensive team, giving up three fewer points per game than the Wings. |
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07-23-23 | Ottawa +5 v. Calgary | Top | 43-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
Seems strange to say, but the Redblacks might have found their best quarterback in Dustin Crum following season-ending injuries to starter Jeremiah Masoli and Tyrie Adams. You may recall Crum from his Mid-American Conference days with Kent State. He was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2021. Crum rallied Ottawa from a 25-6 deficit to a 31-28 upset overtime victory against Winnipeg last week. Crum accounted for 261 yards passing and another 103 yards rushing. This was against a Blue Bombers defense that gives up the second-fewest yards per game in the CFL. Ottawa is now 2-3, same as Calgary. The Stampeders needed to pull out a 33-31 win against Saskatchewan last week to reach that mark. The Stampeders have not shown to be very good this season. Calgary is giving up an average of 28 points its last three games. The Stampeders haven't faced many mobile QB's such as Crum either. Ottawa ranks No. 2 in the CFL in fewest points allowed per game. The Redblacks defense should hold up against Calgary QB Jake Maier, who ranks in the bottom half among the passing yardage leaders in what has been a down year for CFL quarterbacks. The Redblacks not only hold quarterback and defensive edges, but also get the checkmark on special teams. Calgary has given up a league-worst seven big return plays on special teams. The Stampeders have fared poorly spread-wise at home, too, covering only 25 percent of their last 28 home games going 7-21 ATS. |
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07-22-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 1-4 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
The Astros just dominate the hapless A's. They've beaten Oakland 14 of the past 15 times, including all eight games this season. All but one of those victories was by more than one run. So I feel confident laying 1 1/2 on the run line with the visiting Astros, who are assured of getting nine innings worth of at bats. Christian Javier is a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. He's 7-1 on the season. The A's, losers of nine of their last 12 games and with the worst record in baseball, are starting Paul Blackburn. He's not a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. Blackburn has a 5.48 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Blackburn is in terrible form with an 0-2 record, 10.03 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in his past three appearances. He does not have a good history against the Astros either with an 0-4 record, 11.25 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. |
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07-22-23 | Sparks +7.5 v. Wings | 84-98 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
On the surface, this looks like an easy winner for host Dallas. The Wings are riding a season-high four-game win streak, while Los Angeles has lost seven in a row. |
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07-22-23 | Saskatchewan v. BC -10 | Top | 9-19 | Push | 0 | 98 h 38 m | Show |
There are three powerful teams in the Canadian Football League this season - BC, Winnipeg and Toronto. Saskatchewan is at least two tiers below the Lions and could sink even more with its starting quarterback, Trevor Harris, out with injury. The Roughriders are 3-2. But two of those victories were against 0-6 Edmonton and the Roughriders only beat the Elks by a combined five points. BC ranks No. 2 in points per game and yards per game. But the Lions really shine on defense, which is bad news for untested Saskatchewan backup QB Mason Fine. The Lions have the best defense in the CFL ranking No. 1 in fewest points and yards allowed. They also are No. 1 in pass defense and have the second-most sacks. BC also has a scheduling break coming off a bye. The Lions have film on Fine since he played after Harris suffered a serious knee injury in last Saturday's loss to Calgary. The Roughriders are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games and 0-5 ATS in their past five games versus above .500 opponents. BC has covered its last five home games. |
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07-21-23 | Liberty -8.5 v. Mystics | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
The Mystics have too many injuries to stay within double-digits of the Liberty. Out for Washington is Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins, Shakira Austin and Kristi Toliver. Delle Donne is one of the best players in the league. Austin is the Mystics' top inside player and Atkins is a key backcourt scorer. It's obvious the Mystics are not the same team without these players after they lost at home to the lowly Fever, 82-76, this past Wednesday. New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league averaging 87.8 points. The Mystics are giving up an average of 88.3 points during their last eight games. The Liberty are in bounce-back mode after a home upset loss to the Wings two days ago. That snapped the Liberty's four-game win streak. New York has not lost consecutive games this season. The Liberty are 4-0 ATS following a defeat. The Mystics are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing an above .500 opponent. |
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07-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | 16-13 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Bye, bye Arizona. The slipping Diamondbacks, losers of 10 of their last 14 games and four in a row, have it rough again here. Arizona faces the Braves and All-Star pitcher Bryce Elder. Both the Braves and Elder are off bad performances. So the Diamondbacks can't expect any mercy. The Diamondbacks are starting Zach Davies, who has surrendered seven runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. Davies has a 6.37 ERA. He's prone to the long ball having yielded 52 homers the past three seasons. The Braves lead the majors in homers, while ranking No. 2 in runs and batting average. The Braves have smacked at least one home run in 28 of their last 29 games. So I see this as a kill spot for the Braves. Of the Braves' last 11 victories, 10 have been by more than one run. |
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07-18-23 | Lynx v. Dream -5.5 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
The Dream are playing their best ball, riding a six-game win streak. They are home and will have three of the four best players on the court in All-Stars Rhyne Howard, Cheyenne Parker and Allisha Gray. Those three are averaging a combined 51 points per game. Minnesota can't stop strong offenses. The Lynx's last two games were against the Wings and Aces. They lost those games by an average of 32 points giving up an average of 110 points in those defeats. Atlanta ranks No. 3 offensively averaging 86.6 points. The Dream are averaging 91.8 points in their last six games. The Lynx have multiple injuries. They will be without their leading rebounder, Jessica Shepard, along with missing guards Aerial Powers and Rachel Banham. |
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07-15-23 | Calgary +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 43 m | Show |
Saskatchewan is 3-1 this season while Calgary is 1-3. But don't be deceived by those records. The Roughriders own two victories against 0-5 Edmonton by a combined five points. Their other win was a 29-26 upset overtime win against Calgary three weeks ago. Look for the Stampeders to get their revenge in this rematch. The Stampeders' other two losses were to powerful BC and Winnipeg, whose combined record is 8-2. Saskatchewan is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and has failed to cover its last four home games. "We know we have to be better,'' Roughriders coach Craig Dickenson admitted. Calgary is in near must-win mode. This is the Stampeders' fifth game. Their offensive line and QB, Jake Maier, should start showing improvement by this stage. Calgary is more talented than Saskatchewan. The Roughriders are dealing with a heavy injury list, too. The Roughriders had a dozen players held out of practice among them kicker Brett Lauther, defensive back Rolan Milligan and defensive lineman Anthony Lanier II. The Stampeders are 11-2-1 ATS the last 14 times following a loss. They have covered in six of their last eight visits to Saskatchewan. |
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07-14-23 | Toronto -5 v. Montreal | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
This price is too short. Unbeaten Toronto has outscored its three opponents by an average of 17 points in going 3-0 SU and ATS. Montreal opened with victories against Ottawa and Hamilton - whose combined record is 2-6 - but got crushed the past two weeks when stepping up in class losing to BC by 16 points and to Winnipeg by 14. Toronto is another step-up game for Montreal. I don't see the Alouettes hanging within single digits. The Argonauts should dominate the line of scrimmage. They are averaging nearly four sacks a game and have a ballhawking secondary. Montreal hasn't been able to protect QB Cody Fajardo giving up more than five sacks per game. Toronto has the top rushing attack in the CFL with AJ Ouellette and Andrew Harris along with an athletic QB in Chad Kelly. Montreal is the home team, but this spot is very much against the Alouettes. Toronto is off a bye. The Alouettes had to play in Vancouver this past Sunday and then make the nearly 3,000-mile trip back to Montreal. All of this on a short week with this being a Friday game. |
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07-12-23 | Storm v. Dream -8 | Top | 75-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Seattle is the coldest team in the WNBA having lost eight of its last nine, including six in a row. The Storm, though, gave it an excellent comeback effort in their last game coming from 25 points down in the third quarter to lose to the Mystics in Washington, 93-86. Unfortunately for the Storm that road game was last night. So the Storm will be playing without rest and are in action for the fourth time in seven days. That's a brutal stretch for any basketball team, especially an WNBA one, whose players have to fly commercial instead of charter. The Storm now visit a rested Atlanta team that has been idle since Sunday. The Dream are playing their best ball winning five in a row, the last four by double-digits. Led by Rhye Howard, Allisha Gray and Cheyene Parker - all All-Stars - the Dream is the No. 3 scoring team in the league. Seattle is the worst defensive team in the league. The Storm heavily rely on Jewell Lloyd to do their scoring. Lloyd, though, logged more than 35 minutes last night. She is playing on a tender ankle, too. Atlanta is the far superior team right now and the situation is another huge minus for the Storm. |
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07-11-23 | Mercury +17.5 v. Aces | 72-98 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
The Phoenix Mercury have been the biggest disappointment in the WNBA. But the Mercury also have talent and have played more competitively the past six games after a coaching change from Vanessa Nygaard to Nikki Blue. The Mercury are 3-3 ATS in their last six games. Three games ago they nearly upset New York - the second-best team in the WNBA next to Las Vegas - losing by four points as a 15-point ' road dog. Phoenix is coming off a 78-72 victory against Los Angeles this past Sunday. The Mercury are better than what they were when the Aces buried them, 99-79, in Phoenix last month shortly before Nygaard was fired. Phoenix doesn't have Las Vegas' star power. But the Mercury do have a top-five front-court player in Brittney Griner and 41-year-old guard Diana Taurasi still remains feisty and above average. The Mercury should go all-out since they won't play again for another week. That's not the case for the Aces. Their situation is much different. The Aces were fired-up after getting upset by Dallas this past Friday. They took their frustrations out on Minnesota this past Sunday winning, 113-89. This marks Las Vegas' fourth game in seven days. The Aces play the Sparks in Los Angeles on Wednesday. This is a rivalry matchup. So it's doubtful if Aces coach Becky Hammon plays her starters big minutes if her team has a comfortable lead. I believe the Mercury will keep this game close. But even if things start to get out of hand, the backdoor should stay open given the Aces' scheduling situation. |
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07-09-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
I easily can envision the Royals mailing this one it going against Shane Bieber and this being the final game before All-Star break. The Royals have lost six in a row - all by three runs or more. The Guardians have outscored the Royals, 19-7, in winning the first three games of this series. The Royals are 12-34 on the road this season. Ryan Yarbrough will be making his first start for Kansas City since May 7 after he was struck on the head by a batted ball. The Royals' bullpen has the second-highest ERA at 5.14. The Guardians have the second-lowest bullpen ERA at 3.11. |
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07-07-23 | Calgary +8.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
Coming off a bye, 1-2 Calgary has a chance to get back into contention in the tough West Division. Teams off a bye are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season in the CFL. Winnipeg is 3-1. But its offense and defense have yet to both play well in a game. The Blue Bombers gave up an average of 29.3 points during their first three games. They held Montreal to three points in a 17-3 win last week. The Alouettes average just 20 points. They rank fourth-from-the-bottom in points and yards gained per game. Montreal picked up 363 yards despite scoring only three points. There was bad weather in that game, too. So I'm looking for the Stampeders to put up their share of points against a Blue Bombers defense that ranks below average in opponent yards per play. Calgary QB Jake Maier has played much better after struggling opening week against BC's top-ranked defense. The Stampeders have scored 26 points in each of their past two games while averaging 418 yards during this span. Maier averaged 310 yards passing in the last two games while throwing four touchdowns. Calgary suffered wide receiver injuries, but gets back Reggie Begelton this week from a rib injury that kept him out of the Stampeders' last game. The Blue Bombers have scored just 23 points in their last two games. There are some strong trends that favor Calgary: The Stampeders are 11-1-1 ATS after not covering in their previous game, which they failed to do with an overtime loss to Saskatchewan, and they are 12-3-1 ATS during their last 16 road games. |
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07-07-23 | Aces v. Wings +10.5 | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm not looking to fade the Aces very often. They clearly are the best team in the WNBA right now. But this is the exception. The Aces are overpriced here. It wouldn't shock me if Dallas pulled the outright upset even being a double-digit home 'dog. The teams just met this past Wednesday in Las Vegas. The Wings led by nine at halftime and by two points going into the fourth quarter. The Aces remained unbeaten at home winning, 89-82. Dallas came very close despite Arike Ogunbowale, who ranks fourth in the WNBA in scoring at 21.5 points, missing 15 of 20 shots from the floor. Dallas came close despite Satou Sabally missing the second half due to illness. She's fourth in the league in rebounding. Ogunbowale and Sabally are the Wings' top two scorers. Las Vegas was without star point guard Kelsey Plum due to illness. She's questionable for this game. This is Dallas' Game of the Year. The game is sold out in Arlington. The Aces are 2-4 ATS in their last six road games and are 0-5 ATS in their past five games against Dallas. |
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07-05-23 | Angels v. Padres -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 112 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
It's official now. The Angels are the most snake bit team in the majors. The Angels face a hot pitcher down Mike Trout, Brandon Drury, Anthony Rendon and perhaps Shohei Ohtani, who suffered a blister injury that caused his removal from Tuesday's loss to the Padres. San Diego finally could be getting untracked looking for its fourth win in five games. Seth Lugo gets the start for San Diego. He's produced a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last three starts. Contrast this with Angels starter, Patrick Sandoval, who had a horrible June posting a 7.11 ERA in five starts. The Padres are averaging 7.6 runs in their last five games. |
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07-03-23 | BC -3 v. Toronto | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
Toronto is the defending Grey Cup champion. But I have both BC and Winnipeg ranked higher in my power ratings than the Argonauts. BC is 3-0. The Argos are 2-0, but their victories were against Hamilton and Edmonton. The combined record of Hamilton and Edmonton is 0-7. The Lions showed just how dominant they are with a 30-6 road win against Winnipeg in their last game on June 22. That was a monster victory for BC. But the Lions have had ample time to get ready for this matchup. They won't be having a letdown going against the defending champions. BC is far and away the best defensive team in the league giving up just seven points a game and 236.3 yards. That's nearly 100 yards fewer per game than the No. 2 defensive yardage ranking team. Edmonton averaged 6.6 points in three of its four games. The Elks scored 31 points against Toronto in its other game, although two of Edmonton's TD's came late when the game already had been decided. The final ended up, 43-31. So that score wasn't as close as it looked. However, I see BC winning the battle of the trenches against the Argos and thus winning the game. The Lions are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games. |
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07-02-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Royals | 1-9 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
If it weren't for the A's, the 24-59 Royals would have the worst record in baseball. The Royals, though, are off a rare victory against a strong team. They got past the Dodgers, 6-4, on Saturday. Don't look for a repeat. The Dodgers are 47-20 following a loss. They won by multiple runs the following game after each of their past three losses. Kansas City is 15-36 following a victory. LA starter Tony Gonsolin should encounter little resistance against a Royals attack that ranks in the bottom-five in runs, batting average, homers and OPS. Gonsolin has a 2.16 road ERA. The Royals are going with Brady Singer, who has a 5.88 ERA. I don't see Singer doing well against a Dodgers offense that ranks in the top-four in runs, homers and OPS. |
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07-01-23 | Winnipeg -6 v. Montreal | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 68 h 4 m | Show | |
Montreal is 2-0. Winnipeg is off an embarrassing, 30-6, home loss to BC. Yet the Blue Bombers are around a touchdown favorite on the road against Montreal. What does that tell you? It tells me the Alouettes are a bogus 2-0 with victories against Ottawa and Hamilton, who are a combined 0-5. I don't see Montreal successfully stepping up in class against what's sure to be an angry Blue Bombers squad. Even being dominated by BC, I still rank the Blue Bombers as the second-strongest team in the CFL. One terrible performance in two years against the best team in the league doesn't erase how potent their offense is. I fully expect Winnipeg to clean up its offensive line and for Zach Collaros to play much better. He has the weapons. Montreal has good defensive statistics. However, Ottawa is the lowest-scoring team in the league at 13.5 points and Hamilton ranks third-from-last in points and yards. Winnipeg is 6-2 ATS after not covering in its previous game. The Blue Bombers also have covered in seven of their last 10 visits to Montreal. |
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06-30-23 | Dodgers v. Royals +1.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Opponents have figured out Dodgers rookie starter Bobby Miller. Since posting a 0.78 ERA through his first four starts, Miller has permitted 13 runs during his last two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings against the Giants and Astros. His ERA for his last two starts is 12.10. Getting a plus price on the run line and given the toughest situational circumstances for the Dodgers, I'll make a pizza bet on the Royals. I have to take 1 1/2 runs, but Kansas City could spring the outright upset. Morale is good right now for the Royals after they came from behind to upset the Guardians at home on Thursday. The Dodgers just finished a three-game road trip against the Rockies. LA's Thursday game against Colorado didn't finish until very late at night because of a long rain delay. The Royals were going to go with Jordan Lyles. He was scratched, though, due to illness. I wouldn't be involved with the Royals if Lyles was on the mound. But now Kansas City has a wild-card starter in rookie Alec Marsh, who will be making his big league debut. Marsh is a big strikeout pitcher and one of Kansas City's top prospects. Marsh fanned 75 batters in 62 1/3 innings during his minor league starts this season. The Dodgers won't know what to expect. |
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06-27-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 102 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
I'm looking for the Rangers to bounce back in a big way at home after losing to the Tigers on Monday. The pitching matchup is right-hander Matt Manning versus southpaw Martin Perez. Manning will be making his first start since breaking his foot back on April 11. The Rangers rank in the top three against righties in many of the major offensive categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage. Perez has been brilliant at home with a 3-1 record and 1.71 ERA. The Tigers have a bottom-four offense. Each of the Rangers' last eight wins have been by more than one run. |
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06-24-23 | Mercury +2.5 v. Storm | 74-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
These are the two worst teams in the WNBA. Phoenix at least has an excuse - injuries. Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi have both been out. Griner and Taurasi, still effective at 41, are expected to return to the lineup today. That puts me on the underdog Mercury. Seattle is 1-7 at home this season. The Mercury have covered four of the past five in the series. The Mercury have a scheduling advantage, too. They last played this past Wednesday, while the Storm are in action for the third time in five days. |
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06-24-23 | Saskatchewan +3.5 v. Calgary | Top | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
These teams are close to even. But Calgary's home field isn't worth this many points. Saskatchewan has a quarterback edge, too, with Trevor Harris against Jake Maier. The Stampeders also have a pair of key skill position injuries. So I find good value taking Saskatchewan at more than a field goal. Calgary showed a good run defense against Ottawa last week. However, the Roughriders can hurt the Stampeders through the air. Harris has four quality receivers. He passed for 413 yards and three TD's in a 45-27 shootout loss to Winnipeg last week. Saskatchewan opened its season with a 17-13 upset road victory against Edmonton. The Stampeders have just one TD pass in their two games. Maier will be without star running back Ka'Deem Carey again and wide receiver Reggie Begelton is out, too. Begelton is Calgary's leading in receptions and receiving yards. Calgary has failed to cover during 20 of its past 27 home games. |
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06-24-23 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
I see this as a kill spot for the Blue Jays after they lost, 5-4, to the A's on Friday at home. Oakland had lost its past eight games. The Blue Jays have much better hitters and own a huge pitching edge in a matchup of rookie Hogan Harris versus Jose Berrios. Harris has been unimpressive with a 4.45 ERA. Berrios got lit up by the Marlins in Miami during his last start. Prior to that, however, Berrios had permitted only four earned runs in his past five starts spanning 32 1/3 innings. Berrios has pitched much better in Toronto where he's 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA. His day time ERA is 1.56. The A's have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games. |
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06-23-23 | Montreal +3 v. Hamilton | 38-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
I like Montreal to spring a minor upset here. The Alouettes are off a bye and have the superior QB in Cody Fajardo, who looked good in his Montreal debut in Week 1. Hamilton is without starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell, who is injured. Montreal has tape on Tiger-Cats' backup QB Matthew Shiltz. The extra week of preparation should really help the Alouettes and Fajardo as he gets more in sync with his new team and receivers. Montreal's defense looked good in its 19-12 opening week win against Ottawa. It was the top defensive performance of the week, according to Pro Football Focus. The Alouettes are a strong road team covering 24 of the past 35 times. Hamilton has covered just once in its last eight Eastern Conference games. |
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06-16-23 | Winnipeg -6.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 45-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
Winnipeg and Saskatchewan each opened the season with victories. But that's where the similarities end. The Blue Bombers are much better than the Roughriders. So I have no qualms laying a touchdown with them on the road. The Blue Bombers came within two points of winning the Grey Cup last season going 16-4 on the season, including playoffs. Winnipeg has most of its core players back, including QB Zach Collaros, RB Brady Oliveria and WR Dalton Schoen. The Blue Bombers have defeated Saskatchewan seven straight times, including going 3-0 last season. They rolled past the Roughriders by a combined 52 points during the past two meetings. Collaros was in good form in Winnipeg's, 42-31, opening week victory against Hamilton throwing for 354 yards and three TD's. The Blue Bombers compiled 499 yards of offense. Hamilton's 31 points were misleading. Defense and special teams played a big role in accumulating that total. The Blue Bombers held Ticats' QB Bo Levi Mitchell to 200 yards passing, picking him off twice. Saskatchewan was 6-12 last year, 3-6 at home. The Roughriders nipped Edmonton, 17-13, on the road in Week 1. The Roughriders forced three turnovers, but gave up 202 passing yards. The Roughriders also suffered some key injuries. Wide receiver Derel Walker, who scored their lone TD last week, is out with a knee injury and QB Trevor Harris suffered a bruised hip late in the game. Harris is likely to play, but he may not be 100 percent. I don't see him and Saskatchewan's offense keeping up with Winning's attack. I expect the Blue Bombers to be sharper in Week 2 after committing four turnovers against Hamilton yet still winning by 11 points. |
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06-13-23 | Panthers v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 161 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
The Golden Knights have mostly dominated this series. So their being up 3-1 is not a surprise. Las Vegas has outscored Florida, 17-9, made far fewer mistakes, has a decided edge in expected goals, is the much deeper and healthier team with Matthew Tkachuk battling a shoulder injury that has greatly reduced his minutes. The Panthers haven't been able to penetrate the middle of Las Vegas' tall and physical defense. Adin Hill has stepped up in net outplaying Sergei Bobrovsky throughout much of the series. Florida ranked 10th in power play goal percentage during the regular season. But against Las Vegas, the Panthers have failed to score in 13 power play opportunities. The Golden Knights held on to nip the Panthers, 3-2, this past Saturday in Florida in Game 4. Now the Panthers have to regroup and do it with a hobbled Tkachuk, who has been their best player. I don't see it happening, especially not at Las Vegas where the Panthers have lost the past seven times. I don't even see it being a close game. So I'm laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line turning huge minus juice into huge plus juice. |
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06-12-23 | Heat +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
It's no fluke the Nuggets are on the verge of clinching the NBA championship with a 3-1 series lead. But the Heat have earned the right to be backed taking this many points. Miami has pulled off three double-digit fourth-quarter comeback wins in the postseason. They won Game 2 in Denver down by seven points in the final period. They are a well-coached, tough team both physically and mentally. So I will accept this many points knowing that if key role players Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combine for two points while shooting a combined 1-for-10 from the floor and 0-for-7 from 3-point range, the Heat are likely to lose by double-digits. That was the case in Game 4 with Denver winning, 108-95. The Nuggets were sharp in their 108-95 road win in Game 4 this past Friday. They shot 49 percent from the floor and hit 14 of 28 3-point shots for 50 percent. That's going to be difficult to repeat. So is Aaron Gordon scoring 27 points while making 11 of 15 shots from the field and hitting three of four 3-pointers after he made just five 3-pointers during his previous eight games. The Heat, by contrast, made 8-of-25 3-pointers for 32 percent in Game 4. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are playing great. Bam Adebayo, though, is producing strong numbers for Miami and Jimmy Butler is off his best all-around game in this series with 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. It boils down to faith. I have it in Butler, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra and Vincent to keep things close with their season on the brink. |
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06-11-23 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks have four in a row - all by at least four runs - in going a season-best 14 games above .500. The Tigers have lost eight in a row, averaging a measly 2.1 runs per game during this losing skid. The pitching matchup is Zac Gallen versus lefty Joey Wentz. Gallen is at least a "B'' tier pitcher. He's 7-2 with a 2.75 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 2.35 during day games. Wentz is one of the worst starters in baseball with a 1-6 record, 7.49 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. What he's still doing in the Tigers' starting rotation remains a mystery to me. The Diamondbacks rank in the top-10 in batting average and slugging percentage against southpaw pitching. So I'm going to lower the heavy juice by backing the Diamondbacks on the run line in the belief they win this game by more than one run. Update: The Tigers are going to open with 28-year-old Will Vest as an opener. He hasn't recorded more than six outs in any of his 20 appearances. Vest is likely to go just one or two innings followed by Wentz. So my handicap and play has not changed. However, you may have to re-bet the game if you listed pitchers. |
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06-10-23 | A's v. Brewers -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
I once thought Julio Teheran would produce great pitching numbers. I just didn't think it would take 12 years and would happen with the Brewers after he had been out of major league baseball for more than a year. Teheran signed with Milwaukee on May 25. This will be his fourth start with the Brewers. He has a 1.56 ERA in 17 1/3 innings. I like the Brewers to beat the A's by multiple runs today after the A's upset them, 5-2, on Friday in the opener of their three-game series. The A's are the worst team in baseball with the worst road record at 8-26. Milwaukee should be able to put up plenty of runs against Paul Blackburn, a below average righty, with a 6.00 ERA and an A's bullpen that has a 6.01 ERA. The next closest team to the A's with a bullpen that bad is the Nationals with a 4.86 bullpen ERA. The Brewers have a top-notch closer in Devin Williams. |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
Let's be realistic about the Heat. They don't have the height, nor the offense, to match up to Nuggets' superstars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. If Miami gets demoralized and its role players aren't hitting their perimeter shots, the Heat are dead in the water. That's what happened in Game 3 this past Wednesday when the Nuggets won, 109-94, on the road. The Nuggets outrebounded the Heat, 58-33, and outscored them by 26 points in the paint. So it's easy to see why the Heat are a home 'dog for this Game 4. Discount Miami at your own peril, however. The Heat have been resilient all through the postseason. Just when you want to count them out they re-emerge. I see the Heat doing that again in this spot. I certainly don't expect the Heat to make 49 percent of their 3-point shots like they did in their Game 2 upset. But Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love and Max Strus should all combine to shoot much better than the 12-for-43 (28 percent) they hit from the floor in Wednesday's loss. Jokic and Murray played their ''A'' games in Game 3. Not so with Miami's stars. Jimmy Butler couldn't even reach five assists. He and Adebayo were a combined 18-for-45 (40 percent) from the field. They are due to shoot better while Jokic and especially Murray can't play much better than they did on Wednesday. Eric Spoelstra has bolstered his already strong reputation during this postseason. He just could be the best coach in the NBA. So the Heat have that going. I expect they'll have super defensive intensity, which they lacked in Game 3 especially when they started falling way behind. The Heat have covered seven of the last nine times following a loss. I'm banking on a strong bounce effort from Miami. |
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06-03-23 | Storm +6 v. Sparks | 85-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Seattle is in rebuild mode. However, the Storm have covered two of their three games. They are well-coached and retained two good players, Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor. The spot sets up well for Seattle here. The Storm have been idle since Tuesday. They have been in Los Angeles before the Sparks. That's because the Sparks were in Phoenix last night where they upset the Mercury in overtime. That game took a huge effort from the Sparks, who are dealing with multiple injuries and in transition themselves with a new coach. |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 68 h 9 m | Show |
The Heat are the first play-in team to ever make the NBA Championship Series. But they need more time to rest and recuperate after upsetting the Celtics on the road this past Monday in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Even if they had ample time to prepare, though, I don't see the Heat staying within double-digits of the home Nuggets in Thursday's Game 1. The Nuggets have been idle since May 22. They've won six in a row and are 42-7 at home this season, including 8-0 in the playoffs. If the Heat thought Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were a load, wait until they encounter Nikola Jokic and James Murray. Jokic is the best player in the NBA and Murray had a series for the ages in Denver's four-game sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Murray led all scorers in that series averaging 32.5 points while shooting 52.7 percent from the floor, hitting 40.5 percent of his 37 3-point attempts and sinking 19-of-20 free throws. The Nuggets outrebounded the Lakers and they surely will out-rebound the undersized Heat. |
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05-30-23 | Braves -1.5 v. A's | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
The A's were 0-21 this season as an underdog plus $1.95 or higher - until Monday. The A's ended that streak and halted their 11-game losing skid with a 7-2 home victory against the Braves. Can the A's now defeat the Braves for a second straight day? Heck no. The Braves are going with Bryce Elder, who has become their ace with a 3-0 record and 2.01 ERA, third-best in baseball. The A's rank second-from-the-bottom in runs, batting average and OPS. The A's are starting JP Sears. He has a 4.70 ERA, but has been pitching better recently. However, Sears is a lefty. Atlanta is 10-4 versus lefty starters. They lead the league in batting average against southpaws at .312 and also rank first in on-base percentage and second in slugging percentage against lefties. Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy each have an OPS above 1.000 against lefthanders. |
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05-30-23 | Sky +2.5 v. Dream | Top | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Chicago has proven to be underrated this season. The Sky are the only unbeaten spread team left in the WNBA at 4-0 ATS. They are road 'dogs to Atlanta. I don't believe the Dream should be favored. The Dream just lost at home straight-up to Indiana, the worst team in the WNBA, as a seven-point favorite. The Fever had lost 20 straight games dating back to last season. Chicago is the No. 3 defensive team in the league giving up 73.5 points. Atlanta ranks eighth defensively surrendering 84 points. Chicago has injuries to rotation players Morgan Bertsch and Rebekah Gardner. However, the Sky have a deep roster and are well coached by James Wade. |
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05-29-23 | Rockies +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 5-7 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
There's a lot of randomness here in a pitching matchup of Karl Kauffman against Arizona's Ryne Nelson. Neither of these starters is very good. Yet the Diamondbacks are nearly a 2-to-1 favorite. So I'll take a shot on the Rockies, who are 5-2 in their last seven games, and cushion it by taking 1 1/2 runs on the run line. Kauffman is 0-2 with a 9.35 ERA. He does have the element of surprise as the Diamondbacks have never faced him. The righthanded Nelson is 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA. The Rockies faced him on April 30 and got to him for six runs on nine hits in four innings. Colorado won that contest, 12-4. The Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 games versus a righty starter. They are averaging six runs during their past seven games. |
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05-28-23 | Phillies v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Spencer Strider ws outstanding as a rookie last season and he's tough again this season with a 4-2 record and 2.97 ERA. Oh, yes, Strider also leads the majors in strikeouts with 97. Strider has dominated the Phillies with a 4-0 lifetime mark with a 1.27 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. The Phillies have dropped 13 of their last 19 games to the Braves in Atlanta. Philadelphia has been held to three runs or fewer in eight of their last 13 games. I don't see Dylan Covey, making his first start with the Phillies, and a below average Phillies bullpen being able to keep this game close. |
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05-25-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | 97-110 | Loss | -112 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Celtics for staying alive with their 116-99 road win against the Heat in Tuesday's Game 4. But it's not a fluke the Heat lead this Eastern Conference Finals series, 3-1. They are the superior team. Forget the regular season. It doesn't matter. What does matter is the Heat peaking having eliminated the Bucks - who were perhaps the top team in the NBA - Knicks and winning the first three games against the Celtics before stumbling on Tuesday by playing a poor second half. I like Miami because it has a monster edge in coaching, the best all-around player on the court in Jimmy Butler, the best low-post player in Bam Adebayo and is the stronger defensive team. The Celtics are perceived to have the more talented roster. I don't buy into that. At worst, Butler and Adebayo give Miami the second and third-best players on the court if Jayson Tatum is the No. 1 player. Jaylen Brown is having a bad series. His head doesn't seem right. Al Horford is showing his age as the long season winds down for Boston, while the Heat are getting major contributions from below-the-radar rotation players Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson. Coaching is crucial in the playoffs. Erik Spoelstra is coaching rings around inexperienced rookie Boston coach Joe Mazzulla. The Heat have covered in 10 of their last 13 games. Yes, the Celtics are back home. But they are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven home games. |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 113-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Judging by the first three games of this series, Denver clearly is the superior team. The Nuggets have a huge height advantage, they are the more physically imposing team, are getting better play from their bench than LA is and have the look of a champion while the Lakers are worn down - physically and mentally. The Nuggets proved they could win on the road, beating the Lakers, 119-108, in LA. this past Saturday night. Denver was in control all the way. So I see the wrong team being favored. The Lakers did a remarkable job to even reach this point. There were 12 teams ahead of them in late February. LA became the first team to advance to the conference finals after being eight games under .500. But 13 playoff games against the Grizzlies and Warriors and now three games against the Nuggets with just one day spaced out have taken a huge toll. It's caught up to 38-year-old LeBron James, fragile Anthony Davis and the rest of the Lakers. The Lakers don't have the height to contest the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic is averaging 27 points, 14.7 rebounds and 11.3 assists in the series. LA can't stop him. Jamal Murray is averaging 35 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists. They have been the two best players in the series. The Lakers have no answers for either one. Denver's support cast has outplayed the Lakers, too. Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown have hurt the Lakers not just with their scoring, but with their defense. The Lakers are averaging 105.5 points in the last two games. That's 12 points down from their season average. Getting points with Denver is just an added bonus. |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
Maybe if Brad Stevens would immediately fire Joe Mazzulla and install himself as coach again the Celtics might have a chance to beat the Heat. But since that isn't going to happen, the Heat are likely to keep winning especially now that they are the home team. There are five things we've learned from the first two games of this Eastern Conference Finals, which the Heat lead, 2-0: Jimmy Butler is the best all-around player on the court. Grant Williams is an idiot. Jaylen Brown is not a star. Bam Adebayo is the best big man on the court. Mazzulla is hugely overmatched by Erik Spoelstra on the sidelines. The Heat won the first two games of this series on the road by an average of 6 1/2 points. The Celtics aren't playing championship caliber defense giving up an average of 117 points to Miami. Maybe the Celtics turn on their defensive switch. I don't see it. I have absolutely zero faith in rookie coach Mazzulla. Miami has the momentum and is the more confident team. The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. They have won all five of their playoff home games. Getting points with the Heat is just a bonus. |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
The Nuggets and their coach, Michael Malone, believe they are being disrespected by the national media who tend to play up the high-profile Lakers. Yes, perhaps Nikola Jokic should have won a third straight MVP award. But the Nuggets can't be considered a great team if they can't win on the road. Denver has yet to prove that. The Nuggets finished the regular season an embarrassing 19-22 away from home and are 2-3 SU and ATS in their five playoff road games. The Lakers are 6-0 SU and ATS at home during the postseason. They've covered five of the past six times they've hosted Denver. The Nuggets lead the series 2-0 by virtue of winning both of their home games. However, the Nuggets didn't cover either game winning by six and five points, respectively. Denver had to hang on to win these games despite Jokic playing at the highest level and Jamal Murray averaging 34 points. The teams have each won four of the eight quarters played. The Lakers have been to the free throw line 12 more times than the Nuggets. And this was in Denver. Now the scene shifts to LA where the Lakers are in must-win mode and the Nuggets have played much worse away from Denver. The Lakers aren't just a two man team of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura have stepped up, combining to average 41.5 points per game. |
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05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
The oddsmaker seems to be anticipating Celtics money making Boston this big of a favorite. The Zig/Zag is in full force here with the Celtics down 0-1 in the series and playing at home. But I'm not buying into it. There's too much value on the Heat - just like in Wednesday's series opener - to turn down this inflated point spread. The Heat are playing with tremendous confidence. They are not the No. 8 seed that had to beat the Bulls in a play-in game to even reach the playoffs. It's wrong to think of them in that context. Certainly the Bucks and Knicks don't think that way now. Miami is an extremely well-coached, a strong defensive team - No. 2 in the league in fewest points allowed - that is being willed to win by Jimmy Butler. He's the best all-around player on the court. The Heat also have the best big man, Bam Adebayo. These teams know each extremely well, which should portend a much closer game than the oddsmaker projects. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Heat lost by more than nine points. I certainly want Erik Spoelstra going for me rather than rookie coach Joe Mazzulla. Miami has covered eight of the last 10 times when playing on one day's rest. The Heat also are 6-1 in their last seven games following a cover and are 14-5 ATS the last 19 times playing the Celtics in Boston. |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
The Lakers shot 55 percent from the floor in Game 1 of this Western Conference Finals series against the Nuggets on Tuesday. They hit 46 percent of their 3-point shots and were 23 of 26 from the foul line. LeBron James and Anthony Davis played at their superstar best combining to go 23-for-39 from the field for 59 percent. Yet the Lakers still lost by six points, 132-126. The Lakers couldn't overcome Nikola Jokic - the best player on the planet - a huge size disadvantage and Denver's strong home-court edge. The Nuggets are 7-0 in their home playoff games. The 132 points is the most points they've scored in their dozen playoff games this spring. The Game 2 point spread, however, opened lower than it was in Game 1. So I'm going Nuggets not forgetting Denver is a No. 1 seed. LA is a seventh-seed. Lakers coach Darvin Ham prefers to go with a small, three-guard oriented lineup. That's not going to work against the Nuggets, who have a frontline of 6-foot-11 Jokic, 6-10 Michael Porter Jr. and 6-8 Aaron Gordon. The Nuggets slaughtered the Lakers on the boards, 47-30. Ham isn't a moron. He knows he can't go small against the Nuggets. But to do that, he and the Lakers have to adjust on the road. LA also is trailing in a playoff series for the first time having opened with road wins against the Grizzlies and Warriors. All of this could put the Lakers out of their comfort zone. Jokic was unstoppable with 34 points, 21 rebounds and 14 assists. The Lakers have no antidote for him. Meanwhile James and Davis could be pressed to repeat their top-notch Game 1 performances particularly Davis, who was 14-of-23 from the field and made all 11 of his free throws scoring 40 points. Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games - and that includes not covering against the Lakers in Game 1. LA is 1-4 ATS in its last five away games. The Lakers also are 4-10-1 ATS during their past 15 games in Denver. Prop Bet Rui Hachimura OVER 11 1/2 points Here's the thing about Rui Hachimura. When he plays, he's an underrated scorer. Lakers coach Darvin Ham figured out in Game 1 that he couldn't play his usual small lineup of three guards against the much taller Nuggets. It took Ham a half to realize that. Hachimura, a 6-foot-8 rotation forward, played the entire fourth quarter. That's a strong sign Hachimura is going to draw big minutes in this Game 2. He responded by scoring 17 points in Game 1. So I look for him to score at least a dozen points in this game. |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
Line value, situation, better defensive team and a huge coaching edge. Those are the four main factors that put me on Miami for this Game 1 Eastern Conference Finals series. I'm surprised the line is this high. Erik Spoelstra, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are not Doc Rivers and choke artists James Harden and Joel Embiid. The Heat know how to play defense - No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game - and they are rested. Miami hasn't played since Wednesday. The Celtics still could be celebrating their dismantling of the 76ers this past Sunday. Miami is extremely dangerous with time to prepare. The Heat upset the Bucks on the road in Game 1 of their first-round series. Miami repeated in Game 1 of its second round series upsetting the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The Heat are 39-17 (70 percent) ATS when playing on three or more days rest. They also have covered 13 of the past 18 times against the Celtics. Spoelstra could be the best coach in the NBA. He rates a huge edge on Boston's inexperienced Joe Mazzulla. |
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05-12-23 | Knicks v. Heat -5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
Sure the Knicks could upset the Heat in Miami. But it would take a repeat of their Game 5 performance this past Wednesday when their Big Three of Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett combined to score 88 points on 27 of 52 shooting from the floor for 52 percent, while sinking 11 3-pointers. And, realistically, I don't see the Knicks duplicating that feat. Not in Miami where the Heat have dominated in the postseason. Miami is 4-0 SU and ATS at Kaseya Center in the playoffs. This includes two victories against the Bucks by a combined 27 points and two wins against the Knicks by a combined 27 points never trailing except for 24 seconds. It's not a fluke either. The Heat have established they are the superior team. The Knicks gained some self-respect and redemption with their 112-103 Game 5 victory. But that's as far as they go. The Heat have covered seven of the last 10 times they've hosted the Knicks. |
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05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
The NBA playoffs often are decided by three things - superstars, coaching and defense. The 76ers have the edge on Boston in all three of these categories. That's why they are going to end this series with a home victory today. Getting points with Philadelphia is just a bonus. Let's start with star power. The 76ers have a pair of superstars, Joel Embiid and James Harden. Tyrese Maxey is stepping up and Tobias Harris can be counted on. Boston has one superstar, Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown certainly is good, but he falls short of being a superstar. The Celtics don't have a reliable third wheel who can produce points the way Maxey and Harris can. Now, let's talk coaching. Doc Rivers is a proven winner. The Celtics know that better than any team. Maybe Rivers is more of a player's coach than a master strategist. But pitted against rookie coach Joe Mazzulla, Rivers is Red Auerbach, Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich rolled into one. From 2004 through the end of last season, the Celtics had strong coaching with Rivers, Brad Stevens and Ime Udoka. The Celtics, however, made the decision to suspend Udoka for this season for what they labeled ''violations of team policies.'' Udoka's chief assistant was 34-year-old whiz kid Will Hardy. Unfortunately for Boston, Danny Ainge poached Hardy for Utah. So the Celtics named Mazzulla, a lesser assistant coach, as their interim coach even though he had no NBA head coaching experience. When the Celtics got off to a hot start, the team removed the interim label making Mazzulla permanent head coach. Boston may want to rethink that move. Playoff coaching is different then regular season coaching. Miami's Erik Spoelstra is a master in that difference. Milwaukee's Mike Budenholzer wasn't. Mazzulla isn't either. This is a fatal weakness. The Bucks knew it. That's why they fired Budenholzer even though he had the best regular-season winning percentage of any Bucks coach in Milwaukee history. It's not just Mazzulla's highly noticeable deficiency in failing to take timeouts at the proper time. Mazzulla hasn't proven adept at developing the right rotation, nor in making adjustments. Udoka, aided by Hardy, were able to mitigate the Celtics' offensive inconsistencies, by stepping up defensively. The Celtics have yet to show that ability under Mazzulla. Boston gave up an average of 122.5 points in its last four games to the Hawks during its first-round series. I have no faith in Mazzulla that he can lead the Celtics to a road victory against the 76ers with the season on the line after losing Game 5 at home by 12 points. |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
This series has a strong Zig/Zag feel to it. The Suns returned to Phoenix down 0-2 and proceeded to win both home games. Now the Suns go back to Denver for Game 5. I want the Nuggets going for me here. It's not just the Zig-Zag either. Denver is dominant at home going 39-7 this season. This includes a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS playoff mark. The Nuggets defeated the Suns by 18 and 10 points, respectively, during the first two games of the series. Denver hung in against the Suns in Phoenix, but couldn't overcome the Suns' fantastic shooting. Phoenix shot 50.5 percent from the floor in Game 3 and 56.8 percent from the field in Game 4. Devin Booker shot a mind-blowing combined 34-for-43 from the floor for 79 percent in Games 3 and 4. No way can Booker and the Suns keep up that kind of torrid shooting. Denver ranked No. 8 defensively during the regular season. The Nuggets have a huge edge in the middle with Nikola Jokic dominating Deandre Ayton and Denver holding a rotation and bench edge. Chris Paul has missed the last two games with a groin injury. If Paul were to return, you have to wonder how close to 100 percent he would be. The Suns also are 0-2 against the Nuggets in this series with Paul in the starting lineup.
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05-08-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Because I don't trust the Warriors on the road. Golden State has lost 33 of its 46 road games this season. If you go back to the end of last season, the Warriors are 17-37-1 ATS (31 percent) ATS in their last 55 away contests. They also have failed to cover during their last four road games against the Lakers. LA destroyed the Warriors, 127-97, at home in Saturday's Game 3. That pushed LA's postseason home record to 5-0. All of the victories have been by six or more points. The Lakers have peaked at the right time going 16-5 since March 17. I trust their defense more than the Warriors when Golden State is on the road. LeBron James and Anthony Davis received extra rest from Saturday's blowout victory. |
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05-06-23 | Orioles v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
The Orioles upset the Braves as better than a 2-to-1 underdog on Friday. I don't see Baltimore doing that again today in a matchup of Kyle Bradish versus Spencer Strider. Strider is emerging as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA. Strider is tied for the National League in strikeouts, too. Bradish is 1-1 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.84 HIP. He's been bashed for 10 earned runs in his last two starts versus the Red Sox and Tigers in seven innings. The Braves have won by more than one run during nine of their past 10 victories. |
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05-06-23 | Knicks +4 v. Heat | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
Discount their two play-in games and this will be the first time in eight playoff games the Heat are favored. Justified? Yes. They are home and I fully expect Jimmy Butler to play having had five days to deal with his sprained ankle. But this doesn't mean Miami is the right side. The Knicks are 38-16-1(70 percent) in their last 55 road games. Julius Randle showed he was past his ankle injury by scoring 25 points, pulling down 12 rebounds and dishing off eight assists in the Knicks' 111-105 Game 2 win this past Tuesday. Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson are playing at high levels, too, for the Knicks. Josh Hart has been a key role player for New York also. Butler was superman in leading Miami to a stunning upset of Milwaukee in the Heat's first round matchup. Butler, however, may not be as effective because of his sore ankle. Remember, too, the Heat are without their third-leading scorer and most accurate 3-point shooter with Tyler Herro out. The Heat fluctuated from being 6-to-10 point road underdogs to the Knicks in Game 2. Now they're currently four-point favorites. So I see plenty of line value to the Knicks. Miami is 11-28-1 ATS (29 percent) in their last 40 games following a point spread cover. |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets +4.5 v. Suns | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
It's a given the Suns are going to win Game 3 of their series against the Nuggets, right? After all, Phoenix is down 0-2 and in must-win mode coming home. The Suns are 30-14 at home. The Nuggets are 20-23 on the road. But on closer inspection, I can't get behind the Suns. There are too many red flags. There's also a hefty point spread tax for backing Phoenix here. You have to go back to Nov. 11 against the Celtics in Boston to find the last time the Nuggets were this big of underdogs when Nikola Jokic was in the lineup. Denver beat Phoenix by an average of 14 points in sweeping the first two games of the series in Denver. That's with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant - the Suns' two superstars - having strong performances. Booker is averaging 31 points and seven assists in the series with Durant averaging 26.5 points and 11 rebounds. So it's hard to ask those two to do more than they already are giving. The Nuggets have two superstars of their own. Jokic has been the best player in the NBA for the past three seasons. He rates a huge edge on Deandre Ayton. Jamal Murray had been as hot as any player until shooting just 3-of-15 from the floor in Game 2. Yet the Nuggets still won that game by 10 points. Denver has outrebounded the Suns by 13 in the series and has displayed a much stronger rotation and bench. Even with Booker and Durant playing up to par, the Suns have averaged just 97 points in the series. Now the Suns are not only being asked to cover what I consider an excessive point spread, but do it without point guard Chris Paul. He's out with a groin injury putting Cameron Payne in the spotlight. Payne plays faster than Paul, but he's not nearly as talented, nor does he have big-game, big-minute experience on his resume. Paul was injured in Monday's Game 2 loss. Payne came in and scored just two points in 17 minutes going 1-for-7 from the floor. Worse, the Suns were minus-16 when he was on the court. That translates to minus-32 if Payne's minutes are doubled from 17 to 34. Maybe Payne will step up. But I'd rather take the points and go-against him. All the pressure here is on the Suns. Let's see how they hold up. I don't see it going well for them. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
We saw it Wednesday night with the Celtics. We'll see it tonight with the Warriors. NBA teams down 0-1 in a series at home in Game 2 don't lose and they cover the spread. The record speaks for itself - 20-1 SU, 19-2 ATS since 2018 in that role. The Lakers caught the Warriors coming off a Game 7 road win against Sacramento when they defeated Golden State, 117-112, this past Tuesday. The Warriors had beaten the Kings just two days before Game 1. Golden State will be fully ready and prepared now for Game 2. The Warriors shot just six free throws in that Game 1 loss. The Lakers went to the line 29 times making 25. Even with that unstainable disparity, the Warriors had a chance to tie the game with less than 10 seconds left if Jordan Poole could have made an open 3-point shot. The Lakers paid a price to win Game 1. They played fragile Anthony Davis for 44 minutes. LA also upset the Grizzlies on the road in Game 1 of its previous series. The Lakers then went on to lose Game 2 in Memphis by 10 points. The Warriors have played far better at home this season than on the road. Their home point spread record is an amazing: 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 home games for 68 percent. |
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05-03-23 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-121 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
The Celtics were 10 1/2-point home favorites in Monday's Game 1. They lost to the 76ers straight-up. Boston opened double-digit favorites again for today's Game 2. Maybe the Celtics even the series. But I won't turn down double-digit points with the 76ers to find out. Boston lost Game 1 despite shooting 58.7 percent from the field, taking advantage of no Joel Embiid - who isn't likely to play here either - to outscore the 76ers, 66-42, in the paint and committed just 10 fouls. Yet lost. The Celtics can talk about increasing their defensive intensity. The reality is, though, the Celtics were overconfident hosting the 76ers when Philly didn't have league MVP Embiid. Maybe Boston won't be overconfident anymore. The Celtics, however, can't be trusted to suddenly play better defense. Not when they've given up an average of 121.8 points during their last five games. I don't expect James Harden to shoot 17-of-30 from the field like he did in Game 1. But Harden has his confidence up and he's backed by some underrated 76er scorers who were held back during the regular season by Embiid's dominance. This list includes Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and Paul Reed. The 76ers are 12-5 without Embiid this season. Even more impressive is they are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 away games minus Embiid. Philadelphia also is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games. (Update: Since I released this play last night, the line has come down with word coming that Embiid may indeed play. I like the 76ers getting more than 6 1/2 points with or without Embiid. So the handicap holds.) |
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05-02-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Warriors | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
I thought the Warriors might be invincible at home. They aren't. During their last two home games, the Lakers lost, 118-99, to the Kings last Friday and just nipped the Kings, 126-125, on April 23. The Lakers, unlike the Kings, have superstars with playoff experience. LA also is the more rested team having eliminated the Grizzlies in a 40-point blowout this past Friday. Golden State, on the other hand, is rushed back on the court after beating the Kings in Game 7 of its series just two days ago. The Warriors are 2-7 ATS following a victory. The Lakers received excellent contributions from a number of their rotation players stepping up, including Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings against the Warriors, who they beat three of four times during the regular season. |
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05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
Here's the thing about the Nuggets. They were outshot by the Suns, 51.2 percent to 47.5 percent, and outscored in the paint, 60-48, by the Suns during Saturday's Game 1. Kevin Durant had a big game scoring 29 points, hitting 12 of 19 shots from the field, while Nikola Jokic made just 9-of-21 shots from the field. Yet the Nuggets won Game 1 - and won it by 18 points, 125-107. Denver is just so tough at home being 38-7 and is peaking. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are healthy. Guards Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown and Christian Braun know how to effectively defend Chris Paul, who got a pass in the Suns' first-round series victory against the Clippers with LA minus Paul George and then Kawhi Leonard the last couple of games. George and Leonard not only are great scorers, but excellent defenders. The Suns had seven more turnovers than the Nuggets in Game 1 and pulled down 11 fewer rebounds. Then there's Jamal Murray. He's the hottest player in the playoffs during the past two games, averaging 39 points while making 25-of-47 shots from the field and sinking 11-of-20 shots from 3-point range. The Nuggets have won and covered four in a row against the Suns, including all three games played in Denver. Phoenix is 3-7 in its last 10 road games. |
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04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors -7 | Top | 118-99 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
Great season by the Kings, but it's closeout time now for the Warriors. The defending world champions have won the past three games in the series. They need to win this one at home knowing a loss forces them to go back to Sacramento for Game 7. The Warriors are 12-32 on the road and 35-8 at home, including 2-0 against the Kings during this series. Needless to say, they play far better at home. Their 40-17-1 (70 percent) ATS record in their last 58 home games is proof of that. But this huge home/road split didn't stop the Warriors from inflicting a huge defeat on the Kings in Game 5 at Sacramento, 123-116, this past Wednesday. That loss has to be demoralizing for the upstart Kings and a huge reinforced confidence boost for the Warriors. Golden State has all hands on deck now with Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton II aiding superstar Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. The Kings don't have the defense to keep the Warriors in check ranking 25th in scoring defense and 29th in defensive field goal percentage. The Kings need to keep pace offensively with the Warriors to stay in the game. That's even more difficult for them now with their star guard De'Aaron Fox hampered by a broken finger. The injury affected his shooting as Fox was just 9-of-25 from the floor in Game 5 in his first game dealing with the injury. |
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04-28-23 | Bruins -1.5 v. Panthers | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
I see the Bruins ending their first-round series against the Panthers today - and doing it in convincing style. The Panthers staved off elimination by upsetting the Bruins, 4-3 in overtime, in Boston during Wednesday's Game 5. The Bruins outshot the Panthers, 47-25, but made some horrendous turnovers that cost them the game. I don't see that happening again. Perhaps the Bruins were pressing too much playing at home. They should be focused being in Florida where they are 2-0 in the series, outscoring the Panthers by six goals during those two games. Boston is the best team in the NHL. The Bruins will prove it here. I'm confident enough of that to take a nice plus price on them laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line. |
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04-26-23 | Panthers v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
Swept the past two games at home, the Panthers find themselves down, 3-1, to the Bruins and on the verge of elimination in this first-round series matchup. I don't see Florida upsetting the Bruins in Boston in this Game 5. I'm willing, too, to turn a huge lay price into a plus price by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line with the Bruins. The bonus being this is a closeout spot so the Panthers won't hesitate to pull their goalie early if down by a goal or two near the end of the game. The Bruins have been dominant all season. They certainly are dominant at home having won 42 of their last 51 games there. Florida has lost 20 of the past 26 times in Boston. Boston, though, will be taking nothing for granted as the road Panthers upset the Bruins in Game 2. The stinging defeat was a wakeup call for Boston. The Bruins beat the Panthers, 4-2 and 6-2, in Games 3 and 4. Boston's last six victories now have all been by more than one goal. As a bonus, the Bruins could get back their captain, Patrice Bergeron. He's yet to play in the series after getting hurt in Boston's regular-season finale. Bergeron is Boston's second-leading goal-scorer. |
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04-25-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Oilers | 3-6 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
This series has been dead even. It's tied 2-2 with three of the four games going into overtime. There have been 27 goals scored, 14 by Edmonton and 13 by LA. The Kings should have won the last game this past Sunday. They built a 3-0 lead only to lose in overtime. The Kings have proven themselves on the road going 21-14-6 during the regular season. They have split the two playoff games played in Edmonton during the series. So I'm expecting another close game and am protected if the game reaches overtime again by taking the puck line. |
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04-25-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -9.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The Timberwolves got their playoff victory coming from 12 points down in the fourth quarter to beat the Nuggets in overtime at home during Sunday's Game 4 of their series. So the Timberwolves gained a little pride. The grim reality is they are down 3-1 in the series and back in Denver where they figure to get clobbered. The Nuggets aren't going to screw around now with this overmatched opponent that could be missing three key rotation players. Minnesota definitely is minus injured Jaden McDaniels and Nat Reid and now Kyle Anderson is questionable with an eye injury. Expect an intense effort from the now-aroused Nuggets at home. which should insure a double-digit victory. Denver has beaten Minnesota the past three times at home by an average of 24 points, including a 29-point win in Game 1. Denver has also covered six of the past seven times following a loss. |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
The Grizzlies have been road underdogs 16 times this season. Their record in those games? 0-16 SU, 2-14 ATS. That's powerful evidence that this isn't a good spot for Memphis. The Lakers are peaking at the right time. Superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both playing at high levels. The Lakers also are getting key contributions from role players Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves and Dennis Schroder. The Grizzlies split the opening two games of this series at home. But they couldn't hang with the Lakers during Saturday's Game 3 in LA. The final score of LA winning, 111-101, is misleading. The Grizzlies were never in the game. The Lakers buried them, 35-9, in the first quarter. Memphis lost by double-digits despite a monster performance from Ja Morant, who scored 45 points while shooting 13-of-26 from the floor. Morant scored more than half of those points during the meaningless fourth quarter. The Grizzlies are minus big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. Adams led the Grizzlies in rebounding while Clarke was fourth. James is at his competitive best spurred on in part by being goaded by the stupidity and dirty play of Dillon Brooks, who called James old and not worthy of respect. |
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04-23-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +6.5 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
The Hawks just didn't beat the Celtics, 130-122, in Friday's Game 3 of this series by riding an overdue great shooting game from Trae Young. They did it by also outscoring the Celtics by 14 points in the paint and grabbing 19 more rebounds. Atlanta has been good at home, much better than on the road. The Hawks' confidence is up and I give them a coaching edge with Quin Snyder against playoff rookie Joe Mazzulla. There's also a possibility the Celitcs won't have guard Marcus Smart, who is questionable with a tailbone injury. If there's a key number in the NBA it's 6. So this is enough points for me to get involved with the Hawks. |
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04-23-23 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
The Royals are looking terrible again. They are 2-10 in their last 12 games with nine of the 10 losses coming by multiple runs. Angels starter Reid Detmers is up and down. He looked good, though, in his last start, holding the Red Sox to two runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings last Sunday. The Royals are going with Jordan Lyles, who has been nothing but a journeyman. Lyles traditionally hasn't fared well against the Angels with a 6.39 ERA in 10 career outings, including nine starts. The Royals have lost 10 of their last 14 road games against the Angels. |
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04-21-23 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
If the A's weren't bad enough now the news has broken that they likely will be moving to Las Vegas. That has to be a major distraction for the Oakland players. Being a Las Vegas resident I say let Oakland keep the A's. Who wants them? The A's are the worst team in baseball, losers of 16 of 19 games. The A's have the worst run margin difference in the majors at minus-86. They have lost seven in a row, losing their last three games by an average of 7.6 runs. So I have no qualms about laying 1 1/2 runs with the Rangers on the run line. Texas is off to a 12-6 start looking much improved. The Rangers have won four in a row. Texas starter Jon Gray can dominate weak-hitting teams such as the A's, who have a bottom-five offense and just lost outfielder Ramon Laureano to injury. J.P. Sears gets the start for Oakland backed by a terrible A's bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA with a 6.78 ERA. Sears has a 5.00 ERA in two career starts against Texas. |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
It shouldn't be that shocking Golden State is down 0-2 to Sacramento. After all, the first two games of this series were in Sacramento. The Warriors were 11-30 on the road. But now the Warriors return home. That makes all the difference. Golden State is 33-8 at home. All of the Warriors' statistics are better at home than on the road. Each of Golden State's past nine home victories have been by at least eight points. The Warriors are 39-16-1 (71 percent) ATS in their last 56 home contests. I'm not worried the Warriors won't have Draymond Green. I'm being objective here since I haven't despised a Golden State player as much as I do Green since Rick Barry (yes I go that far back). Barry was a whiner. Green is a whiner and a dirty player. I digress. I'll gladly accept the tradeoff of laying fewer points without Green. Because the Warriors won't need Green to produce an all-out effort at home in must-win mode while the Kings come in fat and happy having accomplished what they set out to do in Sacramento. I'm expecting a professional, focused effort from the defending world champions without having to be concerned about Green's distractions and drama. Golden State went 2-0 at home this season when they didn't have Green. The Kings are listing their best big man, Domantas Sabonis, as questionable with a bruised sternum. I fully expect Sabonis to play. It's just an unexpected bonus if he doesn't, or is limited. |
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04-20-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 171 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Backing the Maple Leafs in the playoffs can be an exercise in futility. But I see the Maple Leafs coming up big against the Lightning at home in Game 2 of their series after being upset by four goals as a mid-sized favorite two days ago in Game 1. Toronto is 5-0 the past five times following a home loss of three or more goals. The Maple Leafs have the talent. Their lack of intensity and mistakes around the net prevalent in Game 1 should be cleaned up here following that opening game, 7-3, embarrassament. Tampa Bay has lost six of its last eight road games. This is not the great Lightning team of the past few years. The Lightning also have injury concerns, especially on the blue line. Defenseman Erik Cernak is out. Star defenseman Victor Hedman is questionable with an undisclosed injury. He didn't practice Wednesday. |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -8 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
I had the Clippers plus 7 1/2 in Game 1 of this series expecting a huge performance from Kawhi Leonard. So I wasn't surprised when Leonard scored 38 in the Clippers' upset victory this past Sunday. But now I'm going the other way for this Game 2 riding the Zig Zag theory. I don't see the Suns losing a second straight home game, which would put them in serious jeopardy for the series. Kevin Durant also played well in that Game 1. The Suns are 8-1 with Durant in their lineup. They way outnumber the Paul George-less Clippers in star power. The Suns won't be taking the Clippers lightly in this must-win spot. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS the past eight times following a victory. |
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04-17-23 | Nets +10.5 v. 76ers | 84-96 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
The Nets don't have nearly the talent anymore that the 76ers have. But the Nets are pesky, spunky and will be going all out after losing, 121-101, to Philadelphia in Saturday's Game 1 playoff matchup. That was just the fourth time in their last 21 games that the Nets lost by more than 10 points. The 76ers made a franchise-record 21 3-pointers while hitting 48 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. The 76ers dominated the offensive glass. Philadelphia ended up getting 19 more shots than Brooklyn. The Nets committed 19 turnovers. I'm expecting adjustments and far less sloppy play from the Nets in this Game 2. |
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04-16-23 | Clippers +7.5 v. Suns | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
Forget the regular season. The Clippers are in the playoffs. That makes them dangerous. They are a veteran team with arguably the best all-around player in basketball, Kawhi Leonard. Only twice during the previous two seasons did the Clippers lose by more than seven points in a playoff matchup spanning 21 games. The Suns look far superior on paper with stars Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton. But The Suns aren't in sync yet due to Durant playing only eight games for them. Phoenix also doesn't have a deep bench. The Suns' reserve strength could be even more thin if injured Bismack Biyombo and Cameron Payne aren't ready to play after getting hurt during the second-to-last game of the regular season. The Clippers have better reserves. Paul George is out, but the Clippers have Russell Westbrook along with underrated role players Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac and Nicolas Batum. The Clippers also have proven extremely tough following ample rest. They have covered 69 percent of their last 52 games when playing with three or more days rest. |
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04-14-23 | Mets -1.5 v. A's | 17-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
No surprise Oakland has the worst record so far at 3-10. That's because the A's are the worst team in the league. The Mets are going with Kodai Senga, their big off-season pickup from Japan. Senga has been brilliant so far going 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He has a rested bullpen behind him as the Mets were idle Thursday. The A's are in action for the eighth straight day. They have a taxed bullpen and a terrible starter going today, James Kaprielian. He has an 11.17 ERA in his two starts this season bombed by the Guardians and Rays. Each of the Mets' seven victories have come by more than one run. |
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04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
Disrespected by the oddsmaker and marketplace all season, Oklahoma City has proven it is far ahead of schedule. The Thunder have covered 57 percent of their games this season going 46-34-3 ATS. They will reach the playoffs if they beat the Timberwolves. The Thunder upset the Pelicans on Wednesday. I see them doing the same to Minnesota. Oklahoma City is on house money. The pressure is on the favored Timberwolves. Minnesota is banged-up and has chemistry issues. I find the Timberwolves untrustworthy. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Only twice in their last 10 games have the Thunder lost by more than five points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is as big as any star Minnesota has. Rudy Gobert is back from his one-game suspension for throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson. Gobert, though, is not 100 percent due to back trouble. Jaden McDaniels, a top defensive wing, is out. So is Naz Reid. Those are two key rotation players for Minnesota. The Thunder have covered in six of their last seven visits to Minnesota. |
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04-14-23 | Avalanche v. Predators +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Colorado needs to beat the Predators on the road here in order to edge out Dallas for the Central Division title. That is going to be easier said than done. The Avalanche are a banged-up team and the Predators haven't shown any quit despite being eliminated from the playoffs. Colorado's depth took a hit in its 4-2 home win against the Jets last night as forwards Andrew Cogliano and Denis Maign left with injuries. Nashville is 4-1 in its last five games. During their last nine games, the Predators beat three clubs that won divisions - Bruins, Golden Knights and Hurricanes. Nashville has surrendered only nine goals during its past five games. |
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04-12-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Few expected the Thunder to reach the postseason this season. The Thunder are on house money with all the pressure on the home Pelicans with the loser of this matchup eliminated. The Pelicans went 9-3 down the stretch to reach this point. That took a lot of physical and mental energy. Oklahoma City has lost only twice by more than five points during its last nine games. The Thunder have confidence knowing they defeated the Pelicans, 110-96, in New Orleans when the teams last met on March 11. The Thunder have been strong money-makers all season going 45-34-3 ATS, the third-best spread in the NBA. I trust them to hang in against the Pelicans. |
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04-11-23 | Wolves v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
The Lakers are hot, peaking at the right time. The Timberwolves lack the bodies, maturity and leadership to stay close on the road against the Lakers here. LA has won nine of its last 11 games with six of those victories coming by 11 or more points. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are in sync. D'Angelo Russell is back contributing. The Timberwolves are in disarray - and it's not just because star center Rudy Gobert is suspended for this game for throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson. The Timberwolves have three underrated injuries: Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell. They are all out. Those are the Timberwolves' fourth, sixth and seventh-leading scorers and key complementary players. So without those three and Gobert, Minnesota is down four of its nine rotation players. It's too much to expect Minnesota to stay within single digits of the hot Lakers on the road minus all those components especially given their team makeup. |
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04-10-23 | Nationals v. Angels -1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
Happy Patrick Corbin day. Corbin may be the worst starting pitcher in the majors. This is especially so early in the season. Corbin had an 8.39 ERA in March/April last season. His ERA is 8.00 through two starts this year. He also isn't very good on the road where he was 2-11 with a 7.75 ERA last year. Corbin is facing an Angels team that ranks No. 3 in runs, No. 5 in homers and has the fifth-best ERA. Angels starter Jose Suarez had a tough opening outing. The lefty should find things much easier against the Nationals, who are last in the league ih homers. Washington has dropped 11 of its last 12 interleague games when facing a southpaw starter. The Nationals have lost by an average of 3.7 runs during their seven defeats this season. |
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04-08-23 | Wolves v. Spurs +14 | 151-131 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
At worst, the Timberwolves are going to be involved in the postseason with a play-in game. They would rather earn the No. 8 seed in the West, which they are live to do if they beat the Spurs here, Pelicans on Sunday and things fall their way. The Timberwolves, though, are just 5-10 against the NBA's five worst teams. That includes the Spurs, who are 2-1 versus Minnesota this season. So the Timberwolves do not have a good track record in these types of games. They lack that maturity. They also are laying an inflated number because of their playoff situation. "We always fall short, it seems,'' Anthony Edwards was quoted as saying about the Timberwolves' struggles against bottom feeders. "It always haunts us. It's just a level of respect for the game. You've got to treat every game the same, and that's something that we lack.'' This is the Spurs' second consecutive game at the Moody Center in Austin. That's where their G-League franchise is located. The Spurs beat the Trail Blazers, 129-127, there on Thursday, sparked by the atmosphere and crowd support. The Timberwolves haven't played there. Minnesota last was in action on Tuesday. So there could be a rust factor for the Timberwolves. |
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04-05-23 | Knicks v. Pacers +8.5 | Top | 138-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
The Pacers are out of the playoff race. They aren't likely to have their two best players, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner. So why back Indiana? The Knicks lack motivation and are banged-up. New York is locked into the No. 5 playoff seed in the East. Julius Randle, New York's best player, is out for the rest of the regular season because of an ankle injury. Star point guard Jalen Brunson, the Knicks' second-best player, is dealing with hand and foot injuries that have caused him to miss seven of the last 15 games. The Pacers should play hard. Their young players are fighting for jobs. Rick Carlisle is a good coach who demands effort. Indiana upset Oklahoma City at home two games ago and in its last game led the Cavaliers for most of the contest before falling apart during the final four minutes in a 10-point road loss this past Sunday. The Pacers were derailed in that game by Donovan Mitchell, who shot 14-of-25 from the field and scored 40 points. The Knicks don't have a shooter nearly the superstar caliber of Mitchell. This is what Carlisle was quoted as saying: ''The way we're set up for our young guys, it really is a great opportunity for them. ''... This period of the last 2 1/2, three weeks is very valuable. This creates momentum into next season. We have momentum with our roster.'' Look for the Pacers to hang here if not pull out an outright victory. (Editor's note: The line has dropped considerably since I posted this play in large part because Brunson has been ruled out. I still would strongly back the Pacers believing Indiana is very live to win this game straight-up.) |
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04-04-23 | Lakers v. Jazz +9 | 135-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
The Lakers are peaking with LeBron James and Anthony Davis showing good chemistry since James' return from injury. LA has won three in a row. Utah has covered 12 of the last 16 times when playing on one day's rest. The Jazz are capable of springing upsets at home. Just a little more than 2 1/2 weeks ago, Utah upset the Kings and Celtics. The Lakers have a bigger game on tap tomorrow when they return to LA to play in-city division rival the Clippers. This could mean reduced minutes for James and the fragile Davis in tonight's game. |
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04-04-23 | Nuggets v. Rockets +9.5 | 103-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
The Nuggets are on the verge of clinching the top seed in the Western Conference. They don't feel a great deal of urgency to prove themselves during this final week of the regular season. So superstar Nikola Jokic will be sitting out this game, continuing to nurse tightness in his calf. This opens the door for the home 'dog Rockets to stay within single digits. This will be the Nuggets' fourth consecutive game without Jokic. During this span they lost to the Pelicans by 19 at home, lost by 7 to the Suns and edged the Warriors by two at home two days ago leaving them fat, happy and unmotivated for this matchup. The Rockets are capable. They are 4-3 in their last seven home games. Among the teams the Rockets beat at home during this time frame were the Celtics, Lakers and Pelicans. |
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04-04-23 | Cavs v. Magic +5.5 | 117-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Orlando has the second-best point spread mark in the NBA covering 58 percent. Most of these covers came as underdogs. That's the case again here. Orlando is on the verge of being eliminated from the play-in race. This is last stand time for the Magic. That should ensure a strong effort. The Magic have been playing well going 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning five of their past six games. The Cavaliers are all but locked into the No. 4 seed in the East. The Cavaliers aren't likely to be super motivated here. |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -7.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
There have been a lot of bad beats in this NCAA Tournament. I don't see San Diego State winning this game. But I could see the Aztecs hanging around. Until the end that is when they start fouling a lot, which allows the Huskies to cover this number. Then again, the Huskies just could outclass the Aztecs. They are the better all-around team. Both teams are outstanding defensively. However, Connecticut is averaging 79.8 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have scored 70 or more points in 30 games. They rank third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's numbers. San Diego State can't match that. Connecticut hasn't allowed more than 70 points in its last nine games - all played in March. The Huskies just held Gonzaga to 54 points and Miami to 59 points. Those were season lows in points for both of those teams. Much respect to San Diego State for getting to this late stage. But I'm not going against the Huskies here. |
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04-03-23 | Tigers v. Astros -1.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Still have any optimism about the Tigers this season? Detroit looks as bad as ever opening the season 0-3 after getting swept by the Rays. The Tigers scored just three runs during the series. I certainly don't see things changing for Detroit in the immediate future against the Astros. Matt Boyd is set to make his first start for the Tigers since 2021. I don't expect him to go deep into the game, nor to be very effective against the powerful Astros, who look as strong as ever. Hunter Brown is set to face Boyd. Brown is the Astros' top prospect. He displayed his vast potential in seven appearances last season, including two starts, going 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA. |
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04-02-23 | 76ers v. Bucks -5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
I want the Bucks going for me at home in double-revenge against the 76ers and off their second-worst loss in franchise history following a 140-99 embarrassment to the Celtics. Milwaukee is 13-5 ATS following a non-point spread cover. The prideful Bucks and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo should be highly motivated for this matchup. The 76ers have won the past two meetings in the series. They stopped the Bucks' 16-game winning streak with a 133-130 on March 4. Milwaukee has covered seven of the last 10 times it has hosted the 76ers. |
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03-31-23 | Kings v. Blazers +15 | Top | 138-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I understand the Trail Blazers are fielding a JV lineup these days. But the situation sets up perfect for Portland to cover this large number. Sacramento clinched a playoff spot following its last game this past Wednesday. That's a big deal for the Kings. They had gone 16 seasons without earning a postseason berth, the longest playoff drought in NBA history. The team who the Kings beat Wednesday? None other than the Trail Blazers. And the Kings buried them, 120-80. Hard to believe the Kings are going to have any intensity for this matchup after celebrating their playoff spot and knowing how bad their opponent is. This is Portland's second-to-last home game. The Trail Blazers should put forth a great effort after Wednesday's humiliation. |
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03-31-23 | Spurs +18 v. Warriors | 115-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
The Warriors came back from a 20-point deficit to beat the Pelicans in their last game. Up next for Golden State is a Sunday showdown against the Nuggets in Denver. So you can't blame the Warriors if they look past the lowly Spurs in this matchup. Golden State is 0-2 ATS this season laying more than 12 points. This is the most points the Warriors are laying all season in a game. The Spurs have guaranteed themselves finishing in the bottom three giving them the best chances, along with the Pistons and Rockets, of landing the No. 1 pick in the draft. So the Spurs have motivation. The backdoor should swing wide open for the Spurs if the Warriors were to build a huge lead because Steve Kerr would reduce the minutes of his star players. |
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03-31-23 | Jazz +13.5 v. Celtics | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Even though the Jazz are going to be missing Lauri Markkanen due to a hand injury, this spot sets up well for Utah. Boston is off perhaps its finest victory of the season. The Celtics buried the host Bucks, 140-99, last night. Now the Celtics return home to play this matchup without rest while laying a big number. The Jazz are spunky and remain in playoff contention. They beat the Celtics in the team's earlier meeting this season and are quite capable of keeping the final score within single digits. Utah has covered its last six road games. The Jazz also are 14-3 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB -2.5 | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
Alabama-Birmingham has been the best team in the NIT. I'm going to ride the Blazers here. UAB defeated Southern Mississippi and Morehead State by double-digits in the tournament and then reached this semifinal match by defeating Vanderbilt, 67-59, on the road. The Blazers have done all this despite their top scorer and best player, senior guard Jordan Walker, shooting just 35.4 percent from the field during the tournament. Walker averaged 23 points during the regular season while shooting 42.3 percent from the floor. UAB is winning by playing its best defense holding their three NIT opponents to an average of 59.3 points. None of these opponents were able to score more than 60 points on the Blazers. Utah Valley is giving up an average of 74 points in its last four games. I see a class difference of more than this point spread between UAB of Conference USA and Utah Valley from the Western Athletic Conference. The Blazers are 15-2 in their last 17 games. Their only losses during this time span were on the road to North Texas in overtime and to Florida Atlantic in the finals of the conference tournament game. North Texas plays Wisconsin in the other NIT semifinal and Florida Atlantic is one of four teams left in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-27-23 | Wolves v. Kings -4 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Not only is this a terrible spot for the Timberwolves, but their two best players could be impacted. Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards played major minutes helping the Timberwolves upset the Warriors, 99-96, at Golden State last night. It's asking a lot for the Timberwolves to pull off a second consecutive upset - and doing it without rest. Towns has played just twice since missing 51 games with a calf injury. He's on a minutes restriction. He logged 32 minutes against Golden State, which is more than Minnesota wanted to use him. Edwards returned after missing three straight games with a sprained ankle. He logged 35 minutes. The Timberwolves play at the Suns on Wednesday followed by a home game against the Lakers on Friday. So they could be thinking long-term and hold out Towns and Edwards not wanting to risk those stars getting hurt after playing the night before, especially considering how fast and up-tempo the Kings play. Minnesota is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times following a victory. Sacramento is 23-15 at home. Minnesota is 17-20 on the road. The Kings beat the Jazz by eight points at home in their last game two days ago minus De'Aaron Fox. He sat out with a hamstring injury. It's an injury that's not considered serious. Fox is questionable for this matchup. It's a nice bonus if Fox plays. But I still like the Kings to cover even if Fox doesn't suit up. |
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03-26-23 | Rockets +14.5 v. Cavs | 91-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
After beating the Nets twice on the road in close games, the Cavaliers are back home for the first time in nine days fat, happy and laying a boatload of points here. On deck for the Cavaliers is a road game against the Hawks Tuesday. So, yes, I consider this a flat spot for Cleveland. It could be hard for the Cavaliers to not be overconfident after the Rockets just were destroyed, 151-114, by the Grizzlies this past Friday. The key question here is are the Rockets capable of hanging around with the Cavaliers? Given the circumstances and Houston being healthy except for rotation player, Jae'Sean Tate, I'd say yes. The Rockets are in rebuild mode, but they don't lack talent. They nearly upset the Grizzlies on Wednesday before the Grizzlies buried them in the rematch. Houston is 3-4 in its last seven games. The Rockets are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games. Houston shouldn't lack motivation following its humiliating loss to the Grizzlies. A strong effort by the Rockets should produce a comfortable point spread cover. |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
Miami had a great win against Houston on Friday. But the Hurricanes don't match up well to Texas. The Longhorns are averaging eight more points in the paint than Miami during the NCAA Tournament and playing outstanding defense. Texas is giving up an average of only 60 points during its last seven games. The Longhorns beat top-seeded Kansas to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. They are a team that has peaked at the perfect time after a mediocre late February stretch. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry has made all the right moves. Miami, on the other hand, finished its ACC regular season blowing a 25-point lead in a home loss to Florida State and then barely beat Pittsburgh failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. Then in the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes only beat Wake Forest by two points followed by a seven-point loss to Duke. The Hurricanes weren't that sharp either against Drake in the NCAA Tournament. It's a bonus if Big 12 Tournament MVP big man Dylan Disu is able to play for Texas after suffering a foot injury in the Longhorns' Friday win against Xavier. Miami isn't set up to take advantage if Disu can't play. The Hurricanes do their damage from the perimeter rather than inside. Texas has other capable scorers, including Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir Jabari Rice. Carr and Allen have scored more than 2,000 career points. I want Texas' defense, the outstanding coaching of Terry and the Longhorns' hot point spread mark going for me. |
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03-25-23 | Jazz +8.5 v. Kings | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
The Kings are a huge success story this season with a 44-29 record, which translates to a .603 winning percentage. Sacramento, however, has a losing record when its star point guard, De'Aaron Fox, doesn't play. Fox isn't likely to play here after suffering a hamstring injury in the Kings' 135-127 home win against the Suns last night. The Jazz also played last night and were buried at home by the Bucks, 144-116. Because of the blowout, none of the Jazz players logged big minutes. The Kings, on the other hand, had three starters go big minutes in the win against the Suns. Utah has proven resilient going 11-5-1 ATS following a loss. The Jazz also are 13-3 ATS when playing an opponent with a win percentage above .600. Utah and Sacramento have met three times this season. The Kings won the first two games by a combined three points. The Jazz upset the Kings, 128-120, at home in the last meeting this past Monday. Utah won that game despite not having Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson. It's a plus if either of those two can play today with Markkanen being listed as questionable. The Jazz have covered the past five times against Sacramento. |
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03-24-23 | Bulls v. Blazers +2.5 | 124-96 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
I understand why the Bulls are favored. Portland is 1-6 in its last seven games. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games. I just don't agree that the Bulls should be road chalk here. This is last-stand time for the Trail Blazers as they open a five-game homestand being 3 1/2 games out of a play-in playoff spot. They need to open their homestand with a victory here. The buy sign is on after Portland showed life by upsetting the Jazz on the road, 127-115, two days ago. Yes, Portland had lost six straight games prior to that victory. But those defeats occurred to the Celtics twice, 76ers, Knicks, Clippers and Pelicans. Every one of those teams has a better record than Chicago. The Bulls are 14-21 on the road. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine away contests and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when playing on one day's rest. The Bulls won't have injured DeMar DeRozan. I understand why the Bulls are favored. Portland is 1-6 in its last seven games. Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven games. I just don't agree that the Bulls should be road chalk here. This is last-stand time for the Trail Blazers as they open a five-game homestand being 3 1/2 games out of a play-in playoff spot. They need to open their homestand with a victory here. The buy sign is on after Portland showed life by upsetting the Jazz on the road, 127-115, two days ago. Yes, Portland had lost six straight games prior to that victory. But those defeats occurred to the Celtics twice, 76ers, Knicks, Clippers and Pelicans. Every one of those teams has a better record than Chicago. The Bulls are 14-21 on the road. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine away contests and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when playing on one day's rest. The Bulls won't have DeMar DeRozan. The line has gone up since I released this play as Damian Lillard is questionable and Jusuf Nurkic is doubtful. Given the iffy status of these key players, I would downgrade my selection from one unit to half a unit. |