Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
This is far from being one of the better bowl matchups, but it's the only one on Christmas and there are enough edges for Georgia State to get involved in backing the Panthers. Georgia State is in much better current form than Ball State winning six of its last seven games. The Panthers finished as the No. 2 team in the Sun Belt Conference. They have a good football program and this is a chance for country-wise exposure being on national TV. The Panthers beat Western Kentucky, 39-21, in the LendingTree Bowl last season as a 3-point favorite. Ball State is a middle-of-the-road Mid-American Conference team that shouldn't even be in a bowl game at 6-6. The Cardinals are 4-8 ATS. They have lost three of their last five games. Georgia State holds a big edge on the ground. The Panthers rank eighth in rushing. Ball State is 96th in stopping the run giving up nearly 180 yards rushing.
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12-23-21 | Hornets v. Nuggets -2.5 | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
The Hornets conclude their six-game, 11-day road trip in Denver's high altitude. Key rotation player Cody Martin is out for Charlotte and Gordon Hayward is questionable with a back injury. The Nuggets won't be feeling sorry for the Hornets, who have lost their last three games by nine points to the Trail Blazers, 31 to the Suns and 10 to the Jazz. Denver is off a 108-94 road loss to the Thunder where the Nuggets were 6 1/2-point favorites. Previous to that game, though, Denver hadn't played since Friday. So the Nuggets shouldn't be rusty like they were against the Thunder. They also shouldn't be fatigued either since nobody played more than 27 minutes last night. Charlotte is 10-21 ATS the past 31 times as an underdog. The Hornets have failed to cover during their last four visits to Denver. |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns -14.5 | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a big number, but the Suns are more than capable of covering it especially with Devin Booker back in the lineup. Phoenix has won its last three games by 20 points against the Wizards at home, defeated the Hornets by 31 at home and the Lakers on the road by 18. Those teams are all better than Oklahoma City. The Thunder actually is in a letdown spot after springing a 108-94 home upset win against the Nuggets last night for their third straight victory. It would not surprise me if the Thunder mailed this one in being the night before Christmas. The Suns are the third-highest scoring team in the league and rank fourth defensively. They've been the second best team in the NBA in defensive efficiency if you go by the last 10 games.
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
I want the Titans going for me in a Thursday night home underdog role desperately needing a victory. The Titans have cobbled together a serviceable ground attack without Derrick Henry and they're getting back their two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. That's huge for Ryan Tannehill, who has suffered without his two top targets. The 49ers are banged-up in the secondary. They also will be missing their leading rusher, Elijah Mitchell. San Francisco is ground-oriented. The 49ers set up the pass via running the ball. The Titans, however, rank No. 2 in run defense. Tennessee has improved very much defensively. Discounting giving up 36 points to the Patriots, the Titans have held their past five opponents to an average of 15.6 points. They just held the Steelers to 168 total yards last week. That was the least amount of yards Tennessee has permitted in 11 years. The 49ers are on a nice roll, but I don't consider them an elite NFC team worthy of beating a similar-caliber AFC team. |
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12-20-21 | Thunder +9 v. Grizzlies | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is the revenge game of the year for Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies broke an NBA record for largest victory margin when they buried the Thunder, 152-179, at home on Dec. 2. The Thunder surely will be highly motivated. They have some confidence, too, after nipping the Clippers, 104-103, this past Saturday. Lugentz Dort, one of the more underrated players in the league, is back for the Thunder after being out with an ankle injury. Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS the last 10 times as an underdog. Memphis could be coming back to earth after falling, 105-100, to the Trail Blazers on Sunday. The Grizzlies were 10-1 going into that game. Memphis still is without injured Ja Morant. This will be the Grizzlies' fourth game in six days, too. So there's a fatigue issue with them. |
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12-20-21 | Maryland-Eastern Shore v. Charlotte -11.5 | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
Strength of schedule is huge here. Charlotte's last three games have been against Arkansas, Valparaiso and Wake Forest. Maryland Eastern Shore has played far easier opponents. So the 49ers are stepping way down in class. The 49ers are a far better shooting team than Maryland Eastern Shore both from the field and foul line. |
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12-19-21 | Saints v. Bucs -11 | 9-0 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Much has changed since the Saints beat the Buccaneers, 31-27, back on Oct. 31. None of it good for New Orleans. The Saints are going to be minus their two star offensive tackles. Sean Payton also is unavailable. New Orleans has become a run-option team after losing Jameis Winston in that win against the Buccaneers. The Bucs are extremely hard to run on ranking No. 3 in rush defense. The Buccaneers are 6-0 at home. They are healthier than the Saints and have revenge. Tom Brady is having one of his greatest seasons leading the NFL in pass completions, attempts, yards and TD's with 36. The Saints don't have enough depth in their secondary to defend all of Brady's stud targets. Being a run-oriented team now the Saints also lack the firepower to hang with the Buccaneers, nor get a backdoor cover. |
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12-19-21 | Falcons +10 v. 49ers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -117 | 44 h 15 m | Show |
No team has been worse as a big home favorite than the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has failed to cover the last 10 times they've been home chalk when laying 5 or more points. All together, they are 4-15-1 ATS in this role. The Falcons have been at their best on the road winning six of eight games away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cordarrelle Patterson has emerged this season as a rushing/receiver threat rather than just a dangerous kick returner. His presence relieves much of the pressure on Matt Ryan to have to win this game himself. The Falcons' ground game has picked up thanks to Patterson, averaging 132.6 rushing yards the past three games. Atlanta remains in the playoff hunt so a hard effort should be a given. San Francisco has been hard hit by injuries in the secondary and at running back. The 49ers are ground-oriented with a game-manager type QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. They are not geared to covering big margins like this. |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers +1 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 40 h 4 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh is home and in must-win mode at 6-6-1 while the Titans have clear sailing to the AFC South Division title. The Titans, though, are not the same team since losing Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, their best wide receiver. Tennessee hasn't broken the 23-point barrier in its last four games, averaging 17.2 points during this span. The Steelers' defense should be much better with T.J. Watt and cornerback Joe Haden returning to the lineup. Ryan Tannehill hasn't passed for more than 213 yards in four of his last five games. The Titans' defense isn't strong enough to carry their depleted offense minus linebacker Bud Dupree and a banged-up secondary. Najee Harris has lived up to lofty expectations and Ben Roethlisberger still is showing life averaging 270 yards passing his past four games with nine TD throws during this time frame. The Steelers also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. That's big this late in the season. |
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12-19-21 | Cal-Irvine v. Duquesne +6.5 | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker opened this total low and the marketplace has lowered it even more. That tells you points are going to be hard to come by. Duquesne has the inside game to make this a close game if not pull the outright upset. Cal Irvine is averaging only 58 points in its last two games. This game is at a neutral site. The Anteaters are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games when laying points.
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State -11 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
This line originally was set too low because Fresno State was going to be without its coach, Kalen DeBoer, and star QB, Jake Haener. DeBoer is headed to Washington to take over the Huskies' program. But Haener isn't going with him as originally thought. Haener has decided to stay at Fresno State and not transfer after the Bulldogs named highly-respected QB guru Jeff Tedford as their new head coach replacing DeBoer. The Bulldogs are far more talented than UTEP, strong on both sides of the ball. Talent-wise, the Bulldogs are easily two TD's better than the Miners. Motivation is a key. UTEP will have it playing in-state and not having been to a bowl since 2014. Fresno State went 9-3. The Bulldogs were hoping to land a bigger bowl spot. But now that Tedford is their coach, I believe the Bulldogs will produce a strong effort as they have many returning starters. They won't want to embarrass interim coach Les Marks knowing Tedford will be closely following things. So that motivation angle is heavily reduced. Fresno State also has more bowl experience. Fresno State has a balanced attack with several good running backs. Haener is one of the better QB's on the West Coast. He passed for 3,810 yards and 32 TD passes. He has a pro caliber wideout in Jaylen Cropper. Haener's passing efficiency mark of 158.1 was the best in the Mountain West Conference and 15th best in the nation. The Miners have little backdoor ability if they should fall behind, which is highly likely. |
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12-17-21 | Nuggets v. Hawks -3.5 | 133-115 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
A thin roster and fatigue are taking a toll on the Nuggets. Denver was blown out by 17 points at home against the Timberwolves two days ago. Now the Nuggets go on the road playing for the sixth time in 10 days. The Nuggets are down several rotation players. The Hawks, on the other hand, are in action for just the fourth time in 11 days. They are off a 111-99 win against the Magic, which was their fifth straight road victory. Atlanta is the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Nuggets surrendered 124 points to Minnesota, the second-most they've allowed all season. The Hawks like to push tempo. That's bad for the Nuggets. Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last seven visits to Atlanta. The Nuggets also have failed to cover seven of the past nine times they've been 'dogs.
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
Nearly three months ago, the Chargers and Chiefs played in Kansas City. Justin Herbert threw a TD pass to Mike Williams with 32 seconds left to give LA a 30-24 victory. Now comes the rematch where if the Chargers win again they would tie the Chiefs for first place in the AFC West Division. Not going to happen, though. The Chiefs will win and cover this short spread. I'm very confident writing this. Why? Kansas City is playing its best ball and the Chargers will be missing at least one key player. I have full confidence in Patrick Mahomes, who is rounding back into his superstar form, and is aided not only by star receivers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but a finally-healthy Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chargers have given up an average of 26.1 points during their last nine games. They rank 31st in run defense so Edwards-Helaire could produce a big game. The Chiefs are peaking, unlike when they met the Chargers back in late September. Kansas City has won six in a row, the last four by an average of 21.7 points. No team has produced more than 17 points on the Chiefs during Kansas City's last six games. The Chiefs have allowed exactly nine points in each of their last three games. Linebacker Melvin Ingram has been one of the reasons for the Chiefs' defensive turnaround. He played for the Chargers from 2017-2020. He knows them well. Remember the name Trey Pipkins III. Who? He's a little used back-up offensive lineman for the Chargers. He's going to start at left tackle - yes the spot where Herbert's blindside is - replacing standout rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater, who is on the COVID-19 reserve list. Pipkins has played only 27 offensive snaps this season. Usually being the home team for the Thursday night game is a big factor. The Chargers, however, don't have much of a home field advantage because they lack fan support in LA at SoFi Stadium. The short week hurts the Chargers on the injury front. Not only is Slater out, but star running back Austin Ekeler (knee), safety Derwin James (hamstring) and cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. (hamstring) are all questionable. James is the Chargers' second-leading tackler. |
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12-16-21 | 76ers +1.5 v. Nets | 105-114 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
I understand the Nets being favored at home. But they shouldn't be considering their COVID situation. This is who the Nets will be missing: James Harden, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre' Bembry - all starters - along with Bruce Brown, Jevon Carter, James Johnson and Paul Millsap. That leaves the Nets' thin bench with just three rookies. The Nets are going to encounter an angry 76ers team that is off an embarrassing, 101-96, home loss to the Heat last night. 76ers coach Doc Rivers ripped his team after that game. I'm expecting the 76ers to be fired up. They certainly are capable, having defeated the Warriors just five days ago. Joel Embiid is expected to play. But I still would like the 76ers even if he isn't considering the drastic situation the Nets are in. Brooklyn has failed to cover the last six times as a home favorite. |
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12-15-21 | Pacers v. Bucks +2 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Surprised the Bucks are a home 'dog to the Pacers? Don't be. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out and Khris Middleton also may miss this game because of a knee injury suffered against the Celtics this past Monday. Still, I want the Bucks going for me. The Bucks are off a bad 117-103 loss to the Celtics. They lost that game with Antetokounmpo in the lineup. Milwaukee has a deep bench that can withstand its two best players being out at home against a mediocre opponent. The Bucks' rotation gets a boost with defensive specialist Donte DiVincenzo expected to make his season debut after being out with an ankle injury. This is just Indiana's second road game since Nov. 23. The Pacers lost to the Timberwolves in their last away matchup back on Nov. 29. Indiana is 3-10 on the road. The Bucks have won their last eight home contests. The Bucks also are 2-0 versus the Pacers this season winning those games by an average of 14 points. |
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12-14-21 | North Carolina-Asheville -3.5 v. Tenn-Martin | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Asheville is on a nice 5-0-1 ATS covering run. I believe the oddsmaker opened the Bulldogs short in this one still not having a right read yet on this team. The Bulldogs are 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 times they've been favored. Tennessee-Martin ranks 302nd in scoring defense permitting nearly 75 points a game. The Skyhawks have allowed at least 81 points in three of their last four games. They are on a four-game losing streak with the closest game being nine points during this span.
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12-14-21 | Northwestern State +35 v. LSU | 49-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Northwestern State certainly is going to take this in-state non-conference game more seriously than LSU. The Tigers are 9-0 and riding high. But they've been a little too sloppy with taking care of the ball to lay this huge of a number. The Demons are not good, but they should not be dominated on the boards. They also have better backcourt depth with Carvell Teasett back in the lineup. He played for the first time in the Demons' last game and scored nine points with five assists. |
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12-13-21 | Wizards +3.5 v. Nuggets | 107-113 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
The Wizards won't lack incentive here coming off an embarrassing 25-point home loss to the Jazz this past Saturday. It's a huge game for Washington's first-year head coach Wes Unseld Jr. He spent the previous six years as an assistant coach for the Nuggets. So he's extremely knowledgeable about the Nuggets in this non-conference matchup. Washington draws Denver at what should be an opportune time. The Nuggets just completed a seven-game, six-city road trip. They haven't been at home since Nov. 26. So their concentration level could be off having been away for so long. The Nuggets also could be minus two rotation players with Will Barton and Aaron Gordon questionable. |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
As good as the Cardinals have been this season they still haven't done much at home. Arizona has lost its past two home contests - to the Packers and Panthers - and has a losing spread mark at home. The Cardinals would have a losing straight-up mark at home, too, if they didn't nip the Vikings by one point. The Rams trail Arizona by two games in the NFC West making this a must-win spot for them. Not that they would want to, but the Cardinals can take a loss here. Arizona also gets to play the Lions next week. Both teams have excellent statistics. The Rams, though, rank higher than the Cardinals in yards per play and defensive yards per play. Those are underrated and telling numbers. Arizona halted an eight-game losing streak to the Rams with a 37-20 victory in Week 4. The Rams didn't have Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. back then. |
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12-13-21 | Warriors -2.5 v. Pacers | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
The Warriors haven't lost two games in a row all season. They are the best team in the NBA. I look for them to bounce back strong against the Pacers after getting beat by the 76ers on the road two days ago. The Pacers have stepped up their game winning three in a row. Those victories were against slumping teams - Wizards, Knicks and Mavericks.
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12-12-21 | Lions v. Broncos -10 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show | |
Let's start with the premise Denver is going to win. This is perfectly logical since the Broncos are favored by double-digits and the Lions have one victory during their past 16 games. Now the hard part. Will Denver cover the spread? The evidence and situation say they will. The Broncos are 6-6. Their six victories were by 14 against the Giants, by 10 against the Jaguars, the Jets by 26, 7 over Washington, 14 against the Cowboys and 15 versus the Chargers. So all but one of their wins was by double-digits. The Broncos take care of business against bad teams. Their average winning margin against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets was 16.6 points. Denver has lost only once to a sub .500 team. That was to the 6-7 Eagles. Now the situation. The Broncos remain in the playoff hunt. The Lions are fat and happy having ended the NFL's longest losing streak with their victory against the Vikings at home last Sunday. The Lions hadn't reached 20 points since opening week prior to beating the Vikings, while averaging a puny 11.4 points during their previous four games. Vic Fangio isn't going to be too challenged devising a defensive game plan to face such a weak offense, which probably will be devoid of its best player, injured D'Andre Swift. Jared Goff has never been a cold weather quarterback. The Broncos have an excellent secondary and their pass rush has improved. |
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12-11-21 | Warriors -3 v. 76ers | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
No brilliant handicap here. Just a huge class difference. The Warriors are the best team in basketball with a 21-4 record. They rank first defensively and are No. 3 in scoring. The 76ers are 14-12 with a losing home record. They've been without superstar center Joel Embiid, but even with him they still aren't within two levels of Golden State. The teams met on Nov. 24 at Golden State and the Warriors won, 116-96. The 76ers didn't have Embiid and Tobias Harris in that game. They should have them here although Embiid is dealing with abdominal pain after just returning from the COVID-19 list. Sure Embiid and Harris bolster the 76ers a lot. Just not enough to keep them in this point spread range. The Warriors have been idle since Wednesday. They are 14-3 ATS during their last 17 games versus above .500 opponents so they haven't been just fattening up on bad teams. The 76ers have failed to cover in their last six home games. The game is being nationally televised by ABC so the Warriors should be pumped especially with Stephen Curry in pursuit of the all-time 3-point record. |
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12-11-21 | Minnesota +14 v. Michigan | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Michigan is good, but was overrated to begin the season. Minnesota is just the opposite. The Gophers entered the season with no expectations, but are 7-1 winning their first seven games. They hung in against 19th-ranked Michigan State in its Big Ten opener, losing 75-67. The Gophers split against Michigan last season. |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -118 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
There doesn't figure to be many points scored in this matchup and what few points are likely to be scored by Army. The Black Knights are better than Navy on both sides of the ball. Army ranks 20th in scoring and gives up the 16th-fewest yards per game. The Black Knights are the second-best running team in the nation averaging 301.2 yards. They are No. 1 in average time of possession. They've converted on close to 49 percent of their third down plays and 71 percent on fourth down. Navy has a decent run defense. But the Midshipmen have no offense ranking 115th in scoring at 20.4 points a game, 126th in total yards and last in passing yards. They've also turned the ball over 31 times, which is the fifth-highest mark in the country. Army shut out Navy last season, 15-0. The Black Knights are 8-3 with a four-game win streak. They've beaten Navy in four of the past five seasons. Jeff Monken has been Army's coach for eight seasons. This is one of his strongest Army teams. This is one of Ken Niumatalolo's weaker Navy teams with a 3-8 record. Spirits will be high, but I see Army grinding out a double-digit victory with Navy unable to put up enough points to keep this close. |
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12-10-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
One thing's for sure here: The Lakers won't be taking the young, rebuilding Thunder for granted. This is the third meeting between the teams. The Lakers are 0-2 versus Oklahoma City blowing leads of 26 and 19 points. LA has been playing better after a disappointing November going 3-2 in its last five games. During this span, the Lakers blew out the Kings on the road and Celtics at home. They lost by four to the Clippers, who played their "A" game in that matchup, and last night were flat in a road loss to the Grizzlies. The Thunder return home winners of two straight road games beating the Pistons and Raptors. It's a rare situation where the Thunder are fat and happy. They also haven't been home in nine days so their focus could be off. Before their two-game road win streak, the Thunder had lost eight in a row, including a mind-boggling 73-point loss to the Grizzlies three games ago. |
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12-10-21 | Murray State v. Memphis -10 | 74-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm going to lay the wood with Memphis State in a stop-the-pain situation. The Tigers have followed a five-game win streak to open the season with consecutive losses to Iowa State, Georgia and Mississippi. That didn't sit well with Tigers coach Penny Hardaway, who ripped his team. I see the Tigers responding in a big way and taking their frustrations out on Murray State, which is 3-8 ATS when playing above .500 opponents. The Racers are a high-scoring team, but they've played an easy schedule. Memphis has the balanced scoring to do well against the Racers' defense.
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12-09-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State +5.5 | 53-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a huge in-state rivalry game. Iowa State is competitive now thanks to T.J. Otzelberger. He's done a fantastic coaching job. Iowa State is 9-0 after being 2-22 last season before Otzeleberger took over. The Cyclones have passed every test so far this season, including beating Creighton, 64-58, on the road this past Saturday. That halted a 25-game Iowa State road losing streak. Iowa is good. No doubt. But the Hawkeyes aren't elite as Big Ten losses to Purdue and Illinois show. The Hawkeyes were outrebounded, 52-23, by the Illini. That's a potential red flag. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
It's never easy to be the NFL Thursday night road team especially in a non-conference matchup when you don't know your opponent. The Steelers not only find themselves in that role, but also off a huge Sunday victory against the Ravens. The Vikings, on the other hand, are seeking redemption after becoming the first team to lose to the Lions this season. It's no consolation for the Vikings that they outgained the Lions by nearly 50 yards. Minnesota had a number of key people out, or injured in that game. The Vikings' defense will get a huge boost with the expected return of linebackers Eric Kendricks, their best defender, and Anthony Barr. Both missed the Lions game. It's a plus if Dalvin Cook can play. But I don't see the Vikings needing him to cover this small spread. Alexander Mattison is one of the better backup running backs and Kirk Cousins is having a huge statistical season with a 25-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers still are likely to be down their best cornerback with Joe Haden expected to miss a fourth consecutive game. The Steelers' ground attack has regressed. It's going to be rough on ancient Ben Roethlisberger to perform well behind a bad offensive line on a short week. |
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12-08-21 | Jazz v. Wolves +7 | Top | 136-104 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
The Timberwolves have shown major improvement this season going 7-1 from Nov. 17-Nov. 29. However, they are 0-3 in their last three games with road losses to the Wizards and Nets and then a bad home loss to the Hawks this past Monday. Minnesota is going to be up for this game. The Timberwolves aren't likely to get injured D'Angelo Russell back here, but Patrick Beverley is expected to play for the first time in six games. Russell and Beverley are Minnesota's two top point guards. Lack of ball movement hurt the Timberwolves in their loss to Atlanta. That should change with Beverley's return. Beverley also is a top-notch defender. He's one of the more unsung players in the NBA. The Timberwolves have the scorers to compete with Utah thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. Utah is fat and happy on a four-game win streak. The Jazz haven't been great in this role lately going 2-5 ATS the past seven times as a favorite and covering just one of their past five road games. The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS the last eight times meeting a foe with a winning record. |
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12-08-21 | Utah v. TCU -2 | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
I like TCU's current form. The Horned Frogs are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and have cut down on their turnovers committing 10 or fewer during their last two games. TCU has held six of its seven opponents to fewer than 65 points. Utah isn't playing well. The Utes have failed to cover in their last three games as they continue to tinker with their rotation. They are averaging 68.6 points during their past five games. |
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12-07-21 | Celtics v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
I want the Lakers going for me in this revenge spot and catching Boston fat and happy. The Lakers have begun to play better winning four of their last seven games as LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook get more acquainted. The Celtics can't match that star power especially if Jaylen Brown has to miss a third straight game due to a hamstring strain. The Lakers have been idle since Friday when they suffered a frustrating loss to the Clippers, 119-115. They have been pointing to this matchup since losing, 130-108, on the road to the Celtics on Nov. 19. Boston is off a 145-117 waltz against the Damian Lillard-less Trail Blazers this past Saturday. The Celtics have been up-and-down under first year head coach Ime Udoka. |
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12-07-21 | Knicks -2.5 v. Spurs | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Surprised the Knicks opened a road favorite against the Spurs? Don't be. Even though the Knicks are 1-4 in their last five games and have a losing record, the oddsmaker knows what he is doing. New York has gone against the Nuggets, Bulls, Nets, Hawks and Suns during its last five games. This is a step down in class and a stop-the-pain game for the Knicks. It's a good thing the Knicks are leaving New York after consecutive home losses. They are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road contests. The Knicks catch the Spurs returning home having yet to host a game this month. The Spurs are in action for the third time in four days and playing without rest after a hard-fought 108-104 road loss to the Suns last night. New York, on the other hand, had been idle the previous two days. The Spurs were riding a season-best four-game win streak until losing to the Suns. So their mental approach may be down. Same perhaps with their focus level having not been home since late November. |
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12-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Heat -4.5 | 105-90 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
No Ja Morant, no problem for the Grizzlies. They are 4-0 since losing their star guard. I don't see that continuing, though, starting with this matchup. The Heat are 1-3 in their last four games. They were without superstar Jimmy Butler for all of their games. Butler is expected back from a tailbone injury for this game. That should make a huge difference. Worst case scenario is if Butler has to miss this game. Still, I would back the Heat even if Butler is out banking on Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson. Miami has played better at home going 6-3. This is the Grizzlies' fourth game in seven days - all at different venues. Morant isn't the only Memphis player out. Underrated Kyle Anderson also is out with a back injury. |
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12-06-21 | Towson v. Kent State -6 | 73-58 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
I rate Kent State as a dozen points better than Towson - and that's on a neutral floor. The Golden Flashes are much stronger than the Tigers both scoring-wise and defensively. Kent State ranks 17th in scoring defense and is 45th in field goal percentage. The Golden Flashes also are an excellent free throw shooting team making 79.3 percent. Kent State has been bolstered by the addition of Duquense transfer Sincere Carry. He leads the Golden Flashes in scoring at 15.8 points. Towson gives up nearly seven more points than Kent State and has played a weaker schedule. The Tigers rank 254th in shooting percentage, 306th in 3-point percentage and are a bad free throw shooting club at 69.5 percent. Kent State is a top-five Mid-American Conference team. Towson was picked to finish eighth out of 10 teams in the Colonial Athletic Association.
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -107 | 100 h 57 m | Show |
The Raiders are a difficult team to figure out. But this is an extremely tough situational spot for Washington, off a narrow home win against the Seahawks this past Monday. Washington has to travel cross-country now on a short week. The Raiders, by contrast, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. Las Vegas got its offense back in gear picking up 509 total yards and scoring 36 points against the Cowboys during its Thanksgiving upset victory. A special teams checkmark goes to the Raiders, too. Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league making 24 of 27 field goals, while Washington is unsettled at kicker. |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals -7.5 v. Bears | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 97 h 24 m | Show | |
It's not just the expected return of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins that makes the Cardinals worth backing. It's also the disarray that is the Bears and their key defensive injuries. Khalil Mack is out for Chicago. Aikeem Hicks is questionable. So is Roquan Smith. He's been the Bears' best defensive player with nearly twice as many tackles as any other Bear. His sideline to sideline presence and pass rush threat would be highly missed by the Bears. Matt Nagy is on his way out. It probably already would have happened if word didn't leak out before the Bears were ready to make the move. The Bears are extremely poorly coached. They were fortunate to beat the winless Lions on Thanksgiving. The Cardinals are the fifth-leading scoring team in the NFL averaging 28.2 points despite Murray and Hopkins missing three games. Chicago averages 16.3 points. The Bears are last in passing. Their porous offensive line is going to have problems against sack masters Chandler Jones and Marcus Golden, who have combined for 18 sacks. |
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12-05-21 | Bucs v. Falcons +11.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -113 | 97 h 14 m | Show | |
The Buccaneers are overvalued here especially given their cluster injury problem in their secondary. That gives Matt Ryan a fighting chance being home on a fast track. It's huge for the Falcons that they have Cordarrelle Patterson back from injury. Patterson has had a breakout season. Always a kick return threat, Patterson has thrived both as a runner and receiver as the Facons' featured player. The Falcons were right with the Bucs in the first meeting trailing, 28-25, with less than 10 minutes before Tampa Bay broke the game open when Mike Edwards returned a pair of Ryan interceptions for touchdowns. This is a division rivalry, but the Falcons probably will be taking the matchup more seriously trying to salvage their season. The Buccaneers have a bigger challenge on deck when they host the Bills next week.
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12-04-21 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
The teams just met Wednesday in LA. The Kings won, 124-115. That put their record at 3-3 under interim coach Alvin Gentry, who replaced overmatched Luke Walton. The Kings are a better team under Gentry. They also have been idle since that Wednesday victory. The Clippers, however, will be playing for the sixth time in nine days. They are off a highly-satisfying, 119-115, tough win against the Lakers last night. The rested Kings could get back Harrison Barnes, who is having a career year averaging 19 points and 7.2 rebounds. This game sets up well for Sacramento with the situational aspects outweighing the Clippers' revenge spot. |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 39 h 24 m | Show |
It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives. The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 39 h 52 m | Show | |
UL Lafayette rolled past Appalachian State, 41-13, as 4-point 'dogs on Oct. 12. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 11 in a row. Appalachian State is good. But I don't view Lafayette as a home 'dog again to the Mountaineers. Maybe the oddsmaker thinks the Ragin' Cajuns are distracted by their head coach, Billy Napier, being named head man at Florida. But Napier will be coaching this game. He recruited this team and has 20 starters back. Lafayette has won the Sun Belt Conference West Division each of the last four years under Napier. The Cajuns didn't get to play in the Sun Belt title game last year, though, because the game was canceled due to COVID-19. It's been a mistake to lay points against Lafayette at home during Napier's four years there as the Cajuns have covered 73 percent of the 15 times they've been a home 'dog. |
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12-03-21 | Rutgers v. Illinois -8 | 51-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Rutgers has never won during its five all-time road games against Illinois. Don't expect that string to be broken here. Illinois has won nine straight home contests, including going 4-0 this season. All of the Illini's home wins have come by at least nine points, including an impressive 10-point victory against Notre Dame in their last game this past Monday. The Illini showed a lot of team cohesion in that victory. I don't believe Rutgers can stay within single digits of Illinois. The Scarlet Knights have a tough matchup dealing with Illini center Kofi Cockburn, who is in the argument for best player in the nation. |
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12-02-21 | Pistons +12 v. Suns | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Phoenix is having a great year. But this is a flat spot for the Suns sandwiched around games against Golden State. The Suns returned home from a four-game road trip and defeated the Warriors this past Tuesday. Following this game, the Suns travel to Golden State for a rematch against the Warriors on Friday. That's the game they are pointing to. The Suns won't have their leading scorer, Devin Booker. He suffered a hamstring injury and will be out several games. The Pistons have lost seven in a row. They are a young team and they play hard. Detroit has covered four of its last six. The Pistons often are undervalued. That's the case here given that the Suns will be minus Booker and are in a letdown/lookahead spot. |
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12-02-21 | Portland State v. Idaho State -2 | Top | 63-55 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
A battle of two mediocre Big Sky Conference teams isn't going to excite too many people. I rate Idaho State the better team plus the Bengals are home. So I find value in backing Idaho State at this short number. That makes this game worthwhile, at least, for me. Idaho State was picked to finish sixth in the Big Sky. Portland State was chosen to finish seven in conference by the coaches and eighth by the media. This helps reinforce my belief that Idaho State is the superior team. The Bengals went 8-6 in the Big Sky last season. Portland State went 6-8. Idaho State won the lone matchup last season beating the Vikings, 64-57, on the road. |
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12-01-21 | Mavs -2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 139-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Look for the Mavericks to bounce back against the Pelicans, a team they beat at home, 108-92, as 9-point favorites on Nov. 8. That was the sixth time in the last eight meetings Dallas has covered against New Orleans. The Mavericks are 1-5, though, in their last six games and off a 114-96 home loss to the Cavaliers two nights ago. The Cavaliers are improved and Dallas had open looks in that game. The Mavericks just couldn't hit their shots. The Pelicans rank 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point defense. I see the Mavericks hitting their shots in this one. They catch the Pelicans returning home following a successful 2-1 West Coast trip. Both of those wins were against the Clippers. The Pelicans seem to have the Clippers' number. But this isn't a good spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans last were home on Nov. 24. So their focus could be off. They remain without Zion Williamson. |
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11-30-21 | Lakers -4 v. Kings | Top | 117-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Just five days ago the teams met. The Kings prevailed in three overtimes, 141-137. Now the Lakers have rapid revenge. LA won't play again for the next two days following this game and will be at home when their schedule picks up. This should mean big minutes here for Laker superstars LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook since there's no reason to hold back. LA is the healthier team. The Kings could be minus rotation players Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes and Maurice Harkless. All three are questionable. The Kings have failed to cover seven of the past eight times they've been home 'dogs. The Lakers' sense of urgency has picked up after a slow start.
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11-30-21 | Detroit v. Northeastern -5 | Top | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
I'm surprised at this low point spread. Detroit is 0-5 and one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Northeastern gives up 19 fewer points per game than Detroit. The Huskies are 3-4. This is only their second home game of the season. Detroit is their easiest opponent so far. The Titans lost, 98-84, to Hofstra in their last game this past Saturday. The Titans shot 51 percent from the floor and still lost by 14! That tells you how bad Detroit is. I would feel confident laying double-digits with Northeastern against this foe. So this is a bargain price. |
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11-30-21 | Davidson v. Charlotte +5 | 75-58 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
Davidson is a big scoring team. But I'm not sold that the Wildcats should be road favorites here against an in-state rival that has the capability to frustrate them. This is Davidson's first true road game. The Wildcats win with offense. Their defense isn't that good. Charlotte plays at a slow pace and doesn't commit many turnovers. That's going to limit Davidson's opportunities. |
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11-29-21 | Pelicans v. Clippers -6.5 | 123-104 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
The Clippers have short revenge for a 94-81 road loss suffered to the Pelicans 10 days ago. The Clippers also have motivation after playing poorly on Sunday at home in a 105-90 home loss to the Warriors. LA is usually very good in these bounce back situations. The Clippers played during the day on Sunday so there is less of a fatigue factor. They step down in class drawing the Pelicans. New Orleans still won't have Zion Williamson and holds a worse fatigue factor in action for the fourth time in six days. New Orleans is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road contests. The Clippers are 17-6 ATS the past 23 times following a loss of more than 10 points. LA has the long range shooters to take advantage of the Pelicans' 27th-ranked 3-point defense. The Clippers also won't be seeing the nightmare of Stephen Curry hitting from all over the court. New Orleans ranks 27th in scoring. |
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11-29-21 | Notre Dame v. Illinois -4 | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
I didn't see enough out of Notre Dame in the Maui Invitational, which was held in Las Vegas this year, to believe the Irish can keep within this point spread at Illinois. The Irish went 1-2 in the tournament beating Chaminade, but losing to St. Mary's and Texas A&M. Notre Dame had trouble with the Aggies' full court pressure in the second half. The Irish have only broken the 70-point barrier once in five games this season. Illinois is getting outstanding play from its superstar 7-foot center Kofi Cockburn and from Alfonso Plummer. They'll be too much for Notre Dame. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
In Russ We Trust. That's the way I feel about this Monday night game with Seattle's season and future on the line. Russell Wilson versus Taylor Heinicke is a huge mismatch. Wilson has had time to get the rust off following his absence from a finger injury. He has two of the three best wideouts on the field and is facing a Washington defense that is down pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Heinicke is playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The Seahawks' defense has gotten better, allowing an average of 15 points per game during their last four games. The Seahawks have proven themselves in prime time. They are 11-3 during their last 14 Monday night games. The stage is too big for Washington. |
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11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | 10-16 | Loss | -101 | 93 h 31 m | Show | |
The Ravens don't cover as favorites. Baltimore has failed to cover seven of the past eight times as chalk. The Ravens have squeaked out five victories this season by an average winning margin of three points. So I'm happy to take points with Cleveland in this division matchup. Lamar Jackson is the big star. But I give the Browns a huge checkmark in the trenches. They lead the AFC with 29 sacks. Myles Garrett is No. 1 in the NFL with 13 sacks. The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in football. The Ravens are without left tackle Ronnie Stanley, their best offensive lineman, and they have nothing but garbage at running back with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards both out for the season. If you discount their performance against the Patriots two weeks ago, the Browns have yielded an average of just 13.7 points in their last four games. Nick Chubb gives the Browns the best running back. Kareem Hunt is expected to play after being on IR with a calf injury. This outstanding 1-2 punch - maybe the best in the league - takes the pressure off Baker Mayfield. |
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11-28-21 | Calgary +3 v. Saskatchewan | 30-33 | Push | 0 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
Every point matters in this playoff matchup. So I'm going with the underdog Stampeders, who have won and covered their last three. Calgary also defeated Saskatchewan two of three during the regular season with all of the games being close. The Stampeders held the Roughriders to an average of 18.6 points in those three games. The Stampeders are 23-8 the past 31 times as a road 'dog. They've covered their last four games going 5-2 in away games this season. Calgary also has covered in five of its last six visits to Saskatchewan. Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has found a welcomed target with Reggie Begelton returning to Calgary from the NFL. He caught seven passes for 119 yards in his return two weeks ago. I'm counting on Mitchell's veteran savvy and Calgary's elite defense. The Stampeders allowed the second-fewest TD's in the CFL while surrendering only 18.8 points a game. Tre Roberson gives the Stampeders an elite cornerback. The Roughriders have a strong defensive front, but permit a league-worst 273.6 passing yards per game. Opponents scored 31 TD's against the Roughriders, which tied for the most in the league. |
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11-28-21 | Titans v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 13-36 | Win | 100 | 146 h 37 m | Show |
The Patriots are playing their best ball winning five in a row. New England's average winning margin in these games is by 25 points. The Patriots' defense has been mind-boggling, surrendering only one touchdown during their opponent's past 31 possessions. The Titans, on the other hand, are in trouble despite their impressive 8-3 record. They are averaging just 79 yards on the ground since Derrick Henry was injured three games ago. Their passing attack isn't strong, or deep enough, to compensate with Julio Jones out and A.J. Brown banged-up. Tennessee's offensive is at less than full strength. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 31 times. The Titans had a league-high 20 players on injured reserve last week and are missing several key defensive players, including linebacker Bud Dupree. Mac Jones is doing the job for the Patriots with his poise and accuracy helped by an efficient ground attack, an offensive line that is playing well and excellent coaching. The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. Bill Belichick is a master game-planner. So expect the Patriots to take full advantage of their momentum, Tennessee's problems and the situation. |
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11-28-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Bengals | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 20 m | Show | |
Yes, the Bengals are improved. They are not improved enough, however, to be trusted to cover margins in division matchups like this one. Prior to beating the sinking Raiders last week, the Bengals had lost straight-up to the Jets and to the Browns by 25 points. The Steelers have covered 72 percent of the time they've been 'dogs during the past 26 instances. Cincinnati defeated Pittsburgh back in Week 3. It was just the second time in the last 13 meetings the Bengals beat the Steelers. Cincinnati hasn't swept Pittsburgh since 2009. Pittsburgh's defense looked bad against the Chargers last Sunday. Keep in mind, the Steelers were minus T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden in that game. All three are expected back this week. Watt, in particular, makes a huge difference. Fitzpatrick could be their second-best defender next to Watt and Haden is their top cornerback. Watt missed the first game against the Bengals. Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offensive line have been playing better. Roethlisberger has a 104.3 QB rating the past five games, while throwing nine TD passes and no interceptions during this span. |
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11-27-21 | Notre Dame -19 v. Stanford | 45-14 | Win | 100 | 99 h 27 m | Show | |
Stanford is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last six games. The Cardinal has lost their last three games by an average of 32 points to Utah, Oregon State and California. Notre Dame is better than those teams. The Irish's ground game has picked up as their offensive has gotten better. Notre Dame not only will have huge edges at the skill positions, but also in the trenches. Stanford ranks 126th in rushing and 127th in stopping the run. A key for the Irish is motivation. They are making the long trip West against what has become an extremely weak opponent. Notre Dame, though, still is in the playoff hunt. So style points matter. That means the Irish will be primed for a blowout. Notre Dame has covered its past six road games and is 7-2 ATS the last nine times as a road favorite. Stanford is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home contests. |
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11-27-21 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +13 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Syracuse is a very live underdog here especially given the circumstances. The Orange need a win to become bowl eligible. This is a very big deal to them since they've only been to one bowl game since 2013. Pittsburgh would like to win just from a rivalry standpoint, but the Panthers' incentive isn't nearly as great as Syracuse's. That's because the Panthers already have clinched the ACC Coastal Division and will be playing in the ACC title game next week regardless of this outcome. Pittsburgh probably doesn't want to show too much here and may even rest some starters during the game not wanting to risk injury. The Orange is 3-3 at home with two of those defeats coming by just a field goal. Syracuse has a top runner, Sean Tucker, who ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing. The Panthers' weakness is pass defense. So the Orange should be able to balance their attack. The Orange have the defensive ability to bother Kenny Pickett with 36 sacks and 78 tackles for lost yards. The Orange also have the No. 3 pass defense in the ACC. |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M -6.5 v. LSU | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
Injuries, inconsistency and lack of offense have doomed LSU this season. Until beating UL Monroe, a lower-tier Sun Belt Conference team, last week the Tigers were 1-5 in their last six games. LSU is averaging only 14.6 points in its last three SEC games. The Tigers' weak offense really misses star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. Don't look for LSU to get well against stingy Texas A&M in departing coach Ed Orgeron's final home game. The Aggies are No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 14.9 points per game. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Texas A&M. The Aggies put up 41 points on Alabama. So their offense is capable. They'll do enough to cover this spread against a disinterested Tigers team playing the string out while waiting for a new coach. |
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11-26-21 | Suns -3 v. Knicks | Top | 118-97 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
This is my NBA Game of the Month. Being a small market team on the West Coast isn't great for attracting national attention. Maybe that's why Chris Paul and his Suns teammates play well in their annual visit to Madison Square Garden. The Suns have beaten the Knicks in New York three straight times with their winning margin being by an average of 16.3 points. Going back to their last 11 times visiting the media center of the U.S., the Suns are 9-2 ATS. Phoenix is red-hot, winners of 14 in a row. The Suns are doing it with a total team effort. They have one of the deepest rosters in the league. Paul is healthy and putting up excellent numbers. Devin Booker is hot. Deandre Ayton is pulling down double-digit rebounds. When all this is happening, the Suns can take their place among the best teams in the NBA. The Knicks are struggling to achieve consistency. They are 3-4 in their last seven games. New York defeated the Lakers, 106-100, this past Tuesday. The Lakers were missing LeBron James. New York is 0-6 ATS the last six times following a victory. |
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11-25-21 | Bills -4 v. Saints | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 77 h 52 m | Show |
Timing is very bad for the Saints here. This is a short week for the Saints. They've been without their best offensive players - Alvin Karmara, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. These injuries have turned the Saints into a punchless, weapon-less offense operated by Trevor Siemian, one of the more ineffective backup quarterbacks in the league. The result is New Orleans is on a three-game losing streak. That hasn't happened to the Saints since the first three games of the 2016 season. New Orleans draws a much more well-rounded - and angry Bills team that just got destroyed, 41-15, at home by the Colts this past Sunday. The Bills have followed up their previous three losses with blowout victories winning those next games by an average of 26 points. Buffalo ranks No. 2 in scoring at 29.5 points and is fifth in total yards. The Saints can't keep up with that. Their offense is just a shell of its former self. New Orleans' defensive strength is its run defense, although you couldn't tell by watching the Saints get trampled by the Eagles this past Sunday. The Bills, though, are a passing team. The Saints are giving up 29.2 points per game during their last four games. That's right on the number of what the Bills average per game. |
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11-23-21 | Heat -10 v. Pistons | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
The rebuilding Pistons aren't going to win many games this season. They had a great opportunity to beat the Lakers at home this past Sunday, but blew a 17-point lead to drop to 4-12. But that wasn't the major takeaway. Detroit's second-year center Isaiah Stewart tried to attack LeBron James after James caused Stewart to suffer a facial cut that required eight stitches. The benches cleared and Stewart had to be held back numerous times attempting to fight James. It was an emotional game for the Pistons. I doubt they can bounce back and keep this one close against a much superior and what should be motivated Heat squad. Stewart drew a two-game suspension for his actions. The Pistons also are short-handed in the backcourt with Killian Hayes out another two games due to a thumb injury. There's a fatigue factor working against Detroit, too. This marks the Pistons' seventh game in 12 days. The Heat opened their four-game road trip in bad fashion losing to the Wizards, 103-100, this past Saturday. Miami blew a 10-point lead during the final five minutes. The loss halted a four-game Miami win streak. So the Heat shouldn't lack incentive. They are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when facing an opponent with a winning percentage below .400. The Pistons are 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they've met an above .500 foe. Miami's previous three victories have been by 15, 15 and 13 points. |
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11-22-21 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
The Grizzlies certainly aren't going to lack motivation for this matchup. Not only are the Grizzlies off a highly-embarrassing,138-95, road loss to the Timberwolves two days ago that Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins called unacceptable, but they have playoff revenge. Utah eliminated Memphis in five games during the first round of the playoffs last season. Historically the Grizzlies have been strong in this type of situation going 19-7 ATS (73 percent) following a loss of more than 10 points. The Jazz, on the other hand, are fat and happy with three straight wins and covers. Those victories came against the banged-up 76ers, who were missing Joel Embiid, the Raptors, who were minus their leading scorer, OG Anunoby, and the Kings in their final game before they fired Luke Walton. Before losing to the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies had rolled past the Rockets by 34 points and defeated the Clippers by 12 points. Look for the Grizzlies to get back on track with a competitive performance here. |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 3 m | Show |
Despite a 3-7 record, the Dolphins have life after their dominating victory against the Ravens last Thursday. The Dolphins' next four games are against the Jets, Panthers, Giants and Jets again. Those are all winnable games, which would put Miami at 7-7. The Dolphins should get this one against the Jets, who have serious quarterback issues and a thin defense that has collapsed because of injuries. Sometimes it's a mistake to overreact to one game. But beating the Ravens was a huge confidence-builder for the Dolphins. This was a dominant 22-10 victory, too. It was the second-fewest points Baltimore scored with Lamar Jackson as its starting QB. The Ravens could manage only 94 yards on the ground, which was their second-lowest rushing output in four years. The Dolphins are a heavy blitzing team and the Jets have a well-below average offensive line to protect washed-up Joe Flacco, who was named the starting QB this week. The Jets have lost nearly all of their above average defensive talent. The result is New York is giving up an average of 43.7 points in its last four games. The Jets rank last defensively in points and yards. They are second-to-last in pass defense. Tua Tagovailoa is an improving QB, who can take advantage. This is a cheap price to back the superior, motivated team against what's turned into another Jets disaster. |
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11-21-21 | Texans +10.5 v. Titans | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
It's not who you play in the NFL it's when you play them. That applies in this case. The Texans have lost eight in a row. Bill O'Brien really buried this franchise before departing the Houston scene. He should never be allowed to set foot on Texas soil again. The Texans are at expansion level. But the Texans will prove tough here. After winning six in a row - the last five against playoff teams - the Titans are in a monster letdown spot. They have the Patriots on deck. Tennessee no longer has an explosive offense. Derrick Henry and Julio Jones are both out. It's not a coincidence the Titans have had their two worst rushing games of the season since losing Henry to a broken right foot. Houston has the running advantage with David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead and Tyrod Taylor, one of the better running QB's in the league, compared to the Titans' Adrian Peterson and D'Onta Foreman. The Texans' offensive line is terrible. But injuries have greatly reduced the effectiveness of Tennessee's offensive line. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 29 times. That's tied with rookie Justin Fields for being the most sacked QB in the NFL. Taylor was extremely rusty against the Dolphins in his first start after being out for six weeks with a hamstring injury. Houston had its bye last week. Expect Taylor, an 11-year veteran with a history of not turning the ball over, to be much sharper. The Texans are plus eight in point differential during the 10 quarters Taylor has played. This is a game Houston coach David Culley has been pointing to. He's a native of Tennessee and has an extensive college coaching record inside the state of Tennessee. The Texans come in rested and motivated. The Titans lack the firepower to blow an opponent out now especially when in a flat spot. |
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11-21-21 | 49ers v. Jaguars +6.5 | 30-10 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
The 49ers are off one of the most impressive victories of the season. They beat the Rams, 31-10, at home this past Monday night. But the 49ers are a below .500 team. They have a banged-up secondary, an overrated coach and a mediocre quarterback. They just aren't that good. It's a horrible spot for them traveling cross-country on a short week while basking in the glow of a huge upset division victory. It's also an early start time for San Francisco. Jacksonville is below-the-radar. The Jaguars' defense has gotten better. They've surrendered an average of 20 points in their past four games. The Jaguars stunned the Bills at home two weeks ago and hung tough staying within one score of the Colts on the road this past week. The 49ers are run-oriented. They use the run to set up Jimmy Garoppolo. The Jaguars' strength is their 12th-ranked run defense. Garoppolo and the 49ers can and should not be trusted in this spot against this improved foe that is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in its last four games.
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11-20-21 | Pelicans v. Pacers -7 | 94-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
The Pacers are in stop-the-pain mode, losers of three in a row. They draw the 3-14 Pelicans at home. New Orleans is off a rare win, defeating the visiting Clippers, 94-81, last night. The Pelicans aren't good and they are in a letdown situation. New Orleans won't be respectable until Zion Williamson returns. Of their last eight losses, seven have been by eight or more points. The Pacers nearly pulled out a road win against Charlotte last night after trailing by 25 points in the third quarter, but fell three points short. Indiana received a season-high 78 points from its bench. None of the Pacers logged more than 23 minutes last night, while three Pelicans played major minutes against the Clippers. Indiana holds a huge talent edge with Malcolm Brodgon, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner and Caris LeVert. The Pacers' starters will be highly motivated to play well after their poor performance last night. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
Cheap price to lay with Minnesota against an Indiana team that has lost six in a row. The Hooisers hit rock bottom last week falling, 38-3, to Rutgers. Injuries have taken away the Hooisers' explosiveness. They are down to third-string QB freshman Donaven McCulley. Discounting a 35-point performance against Maryland, Indiana is averaging a meager 6.4 points in its last five games. The Hooisers have been held to seven or fewer points in four of their past six games. Minnesota won't be taking the Hooisers lightly being a game behind Iowa and Wisconsin in the Big Ten West Division. The Gophers are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road with their lone away defeat coming to Iowa last week by five points. The Gophers outgained the Hawkeyes and had 11 more first downs. Indiana ranks 106th in scoring defense giving up an average of 32 points. Given their lack of firepower and a defense that has worn down allowing 39.7 points in its last four games it's not difficult to see the Gophers covering a touchdown spread. |
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11-20-21 | Appalachian State v. Troy +10 | 45-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
Appalachian State is the class of the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference. Troy is a .500 team. But the Trojans have outscored their opponents by 26 points and this is their biggest game of the season. It is huge revenge for them after the Mountaineers defeated them by 37 points last season. That was the most lopsided loss Troy had last year. The Trojans have picked up their scoring averaging 27.6 points in their last five games. The Trojans rank 17th in defensive total yards and they have 36 sacks. The most points they've surrendered all season is 35. Appalachian State is down a tick at quarterback from previous seasons. Mountaineers QB Chase Brice has been picked off eight times. The Trojans have 13 takeaways, 11th-most in the country. |
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11-20-21 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -3 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
Oklahoma has lost just once in November during the last seven years. That lone defeat occurred against Baylor last Saturday. I'm expecting the Sooners to bounce back in a big way at home against Iowa State, which is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four road contests. The Sooners are in must-win mode if they hope to have any chance of making the College Football Playoffs. The 9-1 Sooners also need a victory to realistically keep alive their hopes of capturing a seventh straight Big 12 title. Iowa State is enduring a disappointing season. The Cyclones are 6-4 and off a 41-38 loss to Texas Tech as a 13-point road favorite.
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11-19-21 | San Diego State -10.5 v. UNLV | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
These two teams are far apart from what this point spread may indicate. UNLV has a horrible defense and can't pass the ball. The Rebels are highly reliant on running back Charles Williams. The Aztecs have the fourth-best run defense in the country. The Aztecs are in must-win mode, too, needing to win this game and their regular-season finale to capture the West Division of the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State buried UNLV, 34-6, last season. The Aztecs won't be taking the Rebels lightly, however. That's because UNLV has won two in a row after opening the season with eight straight losses. Note, though, the Rebels' victories are against New Mexico and Hawaii. The combined record of those two teams is 2-10. Before beating New Mexico and Hawaii, UNLV lost, 51-20, to Nevada. San Diego State defeated Nevada, 23-21, last week. The Rebels have permitted at least 35 points in five of their games. They rank 105th in scoring defense. San Diego State has one of the best running backs in the conference, Greg Bell, and upgraded at quarterback with the switch to Lucas Johnson four games ago. Punter Matt Araiza is a huge weapon for the Aztecs. He's on pace to set the single-season college mark averaging 52.2 yards per punt. UNLV ranks 119th in total yards and 113th in scoring. The Rebels may not reach 10 points considering they aren't likely to ever have good field position. The Aztecs have held six of their 10 foes to 14 or fewer points. |
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11-19-21 | Ottawa +14 v. Montreal | 19-18 | Win | 100 | 49 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a big number for Montreal to lay. The Alouettes are 7-6. They are a playoff team, but not some dominant power. The oddsmaker seems to believe the Alouettes will play hard against a bad Ottawa team because of home field incentive. The Alouettes would host Hamilton in the first round of the playoffs if the Tiger-Cats lose to Saskatchewan on Saturday provided Montreal defeats Ottawa. Hamilton is around a TD favorite against Saskatchewan. What can be said for sure is Montreal and Hamilton are meeting next week in a playoff game. So this game is pretty much meaningless. The Alouettes aren't going to risk an injury just to have their starters play a full game. If Montreal were to jump out to a big lead, the backdoor would be left wide open as the Alouettes likely are going to play reserves a lot here. Ottawa had a bye last week. So the Redblacks will be refreshed and loose this being their final game of the season. Ottawa played Toronto tough in its last game losing, 23-20, but covering as a 10 1/2-point 'dog. Montreal has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times it has been favored. The Alouettes also are 0-6 ATS the past six times as home chalk. Ottawa has covered the past eight times when playing in Montreal. |
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11-18-21 | Raptors +9.5 v. Jazz | 103-119 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Toronto is well coached under Nick Nurse and getting healthy with Pascal Siakam rounding into shape. That's why it's difficult for opponents to blow the Raptors out. Only twice in their last 14 games have the Raptors lost by more than eight points. The Raptors should be rested and well motivated here having lost their last two games and having had two full days off. Utah, on the other hand, is coming off a 120-86 home blowout of the undermanned 76ers from two days ago. Then there's the history between these two teams. Toronto has owned Utah point spread-wise covering nine of the past 10. The Raptors are a perfect 8-0 ATS during their last eight visits to Salt Lake City. |
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11-18-21 | Texas-Arlington +11 v. North Texas | 36-64 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
A blowout loss to Oklahoma State in its opener and an overtime loss to Abilene Christian makes Texas Arlington underpriced in this matchup. The Mavericks committed 28 turnovers against Abilene Christian. I'm confident that mess will be cleaned up enough for them to hang against North Texas. The Mean Green is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games going back to last season. They couldn't cover as a short favorite at home three days in a loss to Buffalo. I just believe the line is too high for this matchup.
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11-18-21 | Coastal Carolina +2.5 v. NC-Wilmington | 53-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Power ratings-wise I have Coastal Carolina as the better team. So I'll back them as underdogs. Coastal Carolina opened with an easy 101-73 win over Ferrum. That was nine days ago. The Chanticleers are anxious to play again and have had ample rest and game preparation time. UNC Wilmington failed to cover in its two games versus Division I schools losing to Illinois State and to Pittsburgh two days ago. The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS in lined games going back to last season. They also are 3-8 ATS as home chalk.
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11-17-21 | Cal-Riverside +2 v. San Diego | 62-74 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
UC Riverside is underrated and dangerous. Riverside already has an upset road victory against Arizona State. The Highlanders are 6-2-1 ATS as a road 'dog. If you go by KenPom rankings, Riverside is better than San Diego. I have the Highlanders power rated above the Toreros, too. Matchup-wise, the Highlanders' strength is hitting their 3-point shots and defending from beyond the arc. San Diego's weakness is defending the 3-pointer. So I'm going to take the better team in an underdog role. |
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11-17-21 | Mavs +8.5 v. Suns | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
The Suns return home following a three-game, four-day road trip that concluded Monday night in Minnesota. The Suns are fat and happy, winners of nine in a row. Feeding into the Suns' relaxed mind is knowing they don't have to worry about Luka Doncic. He's out with knee and ankle sprains. This sets up a classic underdog spot for Dallas. The Mavericks are playing well, too, winning five of their last six. The Mavericks not only will be motivated by triple revenge, but the challenge of their first game minus their superstar guard. I expect the rest of the Dallas' players to step up. Kristaps Porzingis has played well since returning to the lineup scoring 61 points in his last two games. Jalen Brunson has been an unsung star coming off the bench. He'll get more minutes now with Doncic out. The Suns' last two games were against bottom feeders Houston and Minnesota. Phoenix ranks last in strength of schedule. This is the Suns' toughest opponent during their last 12 games. |
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11-15-21 | San Jose State +20.5 v. Stanford | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
Former Nebraska coach Tim Miles had a successful San Jose State debut as the Spartans opened its season with a 78-76 upset win at home against Cal State Fullerton. The Spartans were six-point underdogs. The Spartans built a 16-point lead and never trailed in that game. The Spartans are better than perceived, while Stanford isn't as good as some people think at least during this early going. The Cardinal lost, 88-72, on the road to Santa Clara this past Friday. Through two games, Stanford ranks 311th in defensive two-point field goal percentage. The Cardinal rank 242nd in turnover ratio, too. Right now Stanford is mainly relying on a pair of freshmen. The Cardinal have failed to cover the past five times when laying points. |
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11-15-21 | Oregon State v. Tulsa +2.5 | 58-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
I think the oddsmaker is putting too much emphasis on how Oregon State finished last season. The Beavers shocked a lot of people by winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament and then reaching the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. But it's not so easy to recapture that magic so early in the season. The Beavers lost Ethan Thompson and Zach Reichle from that team. They've begun this season 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS with a 60-50 road loss to Iowa State in their last game. Now Oregon State is laying points at Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are 21-6 the past 27 times as a home 'dog. Tulsa has a number of key transfers, including Jeriah Horne. He played well at Colorado last season and has looked good for Tulsa so far this season. The Golden Hurricane were limited to just 23 games last season and had a disappointing year. They won't lack motivation here and have the talent to win straight-up. Oregon State is trying to find the right combinations so the Beavers are far from peak form. This is what Oregon State coach Wayne Tinkle said, ''Expectations can be a tricky thing for team that overperform in March.'' |
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11-15-21 | Magic +10.5 v. Hawks | 111-129 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
There's not much to say in defense of Orlando. The Magic are the youngest team in the league, rank second to last in scoring and have the worst record in the Eastern Conference. So when you're playing on the Magic, like I am here, it's almost always a fade against the opponent. That's the case with the Hawks, who should not be favored by this many points. Atlanta opened its homestand beating the Bucks, 120-100, on Sunday. That halted a six-game Hawks losing streak. Not to take away from that Atlanta win, but the Bucks were short-handed minus Kris Middleton. Before that victory, Atlanta had failed to cover in any of its losses during its six-game losing skid with five of those defeats occurring by at least nine points. The Hawks simply aren't that strong of a team to just blow out an opponent when the situation isn't right. The spot isn't right here for Atlanta. This marks the Hawks' eight game in 13 days and second in two days. Atlanta is 0-3 SU and ATS when playing without rest this season, losing those games by an average of 13.6 points. Orlando, on the other hand, will be playing for just the third time in eight days. The Magic will be battle tested. Their last five games have been against the Wizards, Nets, Jazz - who they beat by seven points - Spurs and Celtics. |
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11-15-21 | Bowling Green +16.5 v. Ohio State | 58-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Ohio State is 2-0 but hasn't come close to covering, needing a basket at the end by Zed Key to nip Akron and only beating Niagara by 10 as a 19 1/2-point favorite. The Buckeyes led Niagara by only one point at halftime. The oddsmaker has downgraded Bowling Green because the Falcons were upset by Western Carolina. But Bowling Green is one of the better teams in the MAC. That loss has the Falcons underrated, while Ohio State is overrated because of its big name.
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11-14-21 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 117 h 34 m | Show |
The Chiefs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL going 5-4. Bad defense and a league-worst 19 takeaways are the main factors. Lately, though, the Chiefs have begun to clean up those messes. They had no turnovers against the Packers last week. KC's defense has looked better with the return of its top pass rusher, Chris Jones. The Chiefs have held their last two foes, the Packers and Giants, to a combined average of 12 points. The Raiders are off to an impressive 5-3 start aided by an improved defense and Derek Carr playing well. I see regression coming, though. The Raiders have been very fortunate. They've fumbled 10 times and recovered nine of them. Carr never has proven consistent throughout an entire season. He's going to miss the play-calling and game plans of fired coach Jon Gruden and he no longer has vertical threat Henry Ruggs. Kansas City has owned the Raiders, beating them six of the past seven times.
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11-14-21 | Bucs -9.5 v. Washington Football Team | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a real bad matchup for Washington. Tom Brady entered his bye last week leading the NFL in passing yards and TD's. He's on pace to throw for 5,631 yards and 53 TD's. Slowing down at 44? I think not. Washington is last in pass defense and 29th in scoring defense and total yards. Washington just lost pass rusher Montez Sweat, too. So Chase Young, who has only 1 1/2 sacks, can forget about any single blocking. Backup QB Taylor Heinicke's limitations - lack of height, arm strength, decision making - are becoming more exposed as the season progresses. The Buccaneers know about him after beating Washington in the playoffs last season. Washington is down two excellent offensive linemen, too, with guard Brandon Scherff and center Chase Roullier both out. Roullier suffered a broken leg in Washington's last game. There's a major gap between Roullier and his replacement, Tyler Larsen. The Buccaneers are No. 2 in stopping the run and their secondary is getting healthier. I don't see Heinicke being able to keep up with Brady.
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11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys -9 | 3-43 | Win | 100 | 86 h 44 m | Show | |
I want to back the Cowboys at home after they played their worst game of the season in a 30-16 home loss to the Broncos this past Sunday. Despite that defeat, Dallas still is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games, the best point spread mark in the NFL. Only twice have the explosive Cowboys failed to manage at least 29 points this season when Dak Prescott has started. Atlanta is terrible on defense once again. The Falcons give up the fifth-most points per game and rank 29th in takeaways. The Falcons' 4-4 record is deceiving since three of their wins occurred versus the Giants, Jets and Dolphins whose combined record entering this week was 7-19. Atlanta won all but one of its games on a field goal by Younghoe Koo on the final play. While Dallas should be aroused Atlanta is fat and happy having upset their hated division rivals the Saints on the road, 27-25, last Sunday. This marks the Falcons' fifth different venue in their last five games.
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11-14-21 | Florida State +1 v. Florida | 55-71 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker opened with a wrong favorite. Florida State lost four players to the NBA, but is still loaded. The Seminoles have tremendous depth. Florida needs Keyontae Johnson to beat Florida State. Unfortunately for the Gators, Johnson isn't playing yet. The Gators never recovered against Florida State last year after Johnson unexpectedly collapsed during their game. The Seminoles went on to win, 83-71. It's the seventh straight time Florida State has defeated Florida. |
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11-13-21 | George Washington v. UC San Diego +2 | 55-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
San Diego earned some respect upsetting California on the road as a double-digit 'dog this past Tuesday. The Tritons have had ample time to rest and prepare for their opening home game. George Washington, though, is making the long trip West. The Colonials are playing for the third time in five days so there is a fatigue factor. The Colonials hung tough against 21st-ranked Maryland on Thursday, losing 71-64. They weren't so impressive in their opener, though, defeating St. Francis (PA), 75-72, as 6 1/2-point home favorites. That dropped George Washington's point spread mark to 3-13 when favored. The Colonials also have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 road contests. |
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11-13-21 | Grizzlies -4 v. Pelicans | 101-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Both teams played Friday night and lost. The Grizzlies are the more talented and deeper team. I like them to bounce back and cover this spread. Memphis has proven it can beat much better teams than New Orleans on the road owning victories against the Clippers and Warriors. The Pelicans have dropped nine in a row going 3-6 ATS during this span. Their last six losses all have come by at least eight points. The Pelicans gave a strong effort last night in falling to the Nets, 120-112, but that's not always a given with this team. New Orleans might get Brandon Ingram back today, but clearly miss Zion Williamson. |
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11-13-21 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +7 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 39 h 33 m | Show | |
Montreal covered against Winnipeg last week and I expect the same this week as this game means nothing to the Blue Bombers and everything to the Alouettes. Winnipeg has already clinched home field for the playoffs. The Blue Bombers are resting starters. Backup QB Sean McGuire likely is going to play a lot as Zach Collaros rests. Montreal can rely on William Stanback, the leading rusher in the CFL. He rushed for 106 yards against the Blue Bombers last week. |
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11-13-21 | Michigan v. Penn State +1.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The point spread may not reflect it, but Penn State is the better team. The Nittany Lions are home, too, and don't have the injuries Michigan does. Penn State's losses occurred to Illinois in overtime, to Iowa by three on the road when they were leading by two touchdowns before QB Sean Clifford was injured and a tough nine-point road loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions have played a far more difficult schedule than the Wolverines. Penn State has covered 10 of its last 13 games, while Michigan has failed to cover the past six times when going against above .500 opponents. Penn State got back on track smashing Maryland, 31-14, on the road last week. Clifford and his star wide receiver Jahan Dotson had big games. Michigan can't match that passing firepower. The Wolverines are dealing with a number of skill position injuries with running back Blake Corum, wide receivers A.J. Henning and Andrel Anthony all hurt along with tight end Erick All. Corum is their second leading rusher, while All is their second leading receiver. |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma -5 v. Baylor | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Oklahoma has defeated Baylor seven straight times. The unbeaten Sooners also have won 23 consecutive November games. I don't see the Bears putting a halt to that streak. Baylor lost its momentum with a 30-28 loss to TCU last week. The Bears surrendered 570 of total offense to a Horned Frogs squad going with a backup QB and minus their best running back. It's scary how many points and yards the Sooners can put up on the Bears especially being idle last week giving offensive guru Lincoln Riley ample time to prepare and game plan. The Sooners' offense has taken off since Caleb Williams replaced disappointing Spencer Rattler at QB. The Sooners are averaging 46.2 points in their last five games. |
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11-12-21 | Villanova +4 v. UCLA | 77-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
Two college basketball giants go at it here. I'm not convinced UCLA is the better team. The timing is right for Villanova to play UCLA this early in the season, too. The Bruins are minus injured big man Mac Etienne and could be without Cody Riley. He suffered a knee injury in the Bruins' first game. The Bruins are trying to figure out their rotation at this early juncture of the season. A key for Villanova is the progress of point guard Collin Gillespie, who is coming back from an MCL injury. He looked good in Villanova's season opener, a 91-51 win against Mount St. Mary's.
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11-12-21 | Hamilton +1 v. Toronto | 12-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
This is my CFL Game of the Month. It's a big game here and I'm going to ride the hot hand of Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli, who in his past four starts has thrown for 1,296 yards with nine TD's and no interceptions. Masoli is 6-2 lifetime against Toronto. Toronto has allowed the second-most touchdowns in the CFL. Only Ottawa has given up more TD's and the Argonauts barely beat the 2-11 Redblacks, 23-20, last week. The Argos lost their best running back, John White, to injury against Ottawa. Hamilton has the second-best defense in the league giving up 17.5 points per game. That's seven points less per game than Toronto permits. |
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11-12-21 | Morehead State +13 v. UAB | 71-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Morehead State isn't getting enough respect with this line. The oddsmaker has downgraded the Eagles too much following their 77-54 road loss to Auburn in the season-opener. Auburn, though, is really strong. The Eagles won 23 games last year, captured the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament. The Eagles are very strong defensively. They have a shot-blocking center in 6-foot-10 Johni Broome to go with other veteran and talented players.
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11-11-21 | CS-Fullerton v. San Jose State +6 | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Tim Miles had good success at Nebraska. He was an excellent hire by San Jose State. I look for the Spartans to be competitive against Cal-State Fullerton at home - if not pull off an outright upset - in Miles' San Jose coaching debut. The Titans gave up 83 or more points in six of their last seven games last season and they surrendered 84 points to Santa Clara in their season-opener, an 84-77 road loss. Fullerton is not a good defensive team. The Titans are not a good road team and have failed to cover seven of the past 10 times when favored.
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Rallying from an 18-point second-half deficit, North Carolina came back to defeat ninth-ranked Wake Forest, 58-55, this past Saturday. It was a great home win for the Tar Heels. However, now the Tar Heels have to travel on a short week to face another ranked team, Pittsburgh. The Panthers match up better against the Tar Heels than the Demon Deacons did. Plus the Panthers are home and in a great situational spot catching the Tar Heels on short rest following a great victory. North Carolina has lost and failed to cover the three times it has played away from home this season, losing those games by an average of 13.3 points. Kenny Pickett could be the most improved quarterback in college football. Sparked by Pickett, a trio of good running backs and excellent wideouts, the Panthers are averaging a nation-best 45 points a game. They are No. 2 in the country in yards averaging 543.3. Sam Howell is one of the top QB's in the country. The Tar Heels can't match Pitt's numbers, though, especially when on the road and going against a good defense. North Carolina averages 22 points in its non-home games. North Carolina gives up 33.4 points per game. Pittsburgh holds foes to 22.7 points per game and ranks 15th in run defense. The Panthers give up just 3.2 yards per carry, bad news for Tar Heels' running back Ty Chandler. Howell is less effective if he's one-dimensional without Chandler producing on the ground. Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the ACC. Expect Pickett to get the better of Howell backed by the superior defense and for Pittsburgh to win this one by double-digits. |
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11-11-21 | Raptors +3 v. 76ers | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
The Raptors are in stop-the-pain mode, losers of three in a row with the latest being 104-88 to the Celtics Wednesday night. Toronto will be playing without rest, but this spot still sets up for the Raptors. That's because the 76ers are in action for the sixth time in nine days and are severely short-handed. Out for the 76ers are Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle. Seth Curry is questionable with a foot injury that caused him to miss the 76ers' last game two days ago. Until losing to the Celtics last night, the Raptors had won and covered their first four road games.
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11-10-21 | Heat -4 v. Lakers | Top | 117-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The Lakers aren't playing very well. That's evident by this point spread. LA just nipped the Hornets in overtime at home two days ago. In their previous three games the Lakers lost to the Trail Blazers on the road by 15 points, lost to the Thunder at home and edged the Rockets by two points at home. The Thunder and Rockets are among the worst teams in the NBA. Minus injured LeBron James, the Lakers have been relying on 37-year-old Carmelo Anthony. That's not a good sign. The Heat are off to a fast start. However, they opened their road trip with a 113-96 loss to the Nuggets this past Monday. Miami is the better team right now and will be focused. I'm not expecting Anthony to bail out the Lakers like he did against the Hornets. The Heat give up the second-fewest points per game and are No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage.
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11-10-21 | Long Beach State -7 v. Idaho | 95-89 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
There's a class difference here not reflected enough in the point spread. Long Beach State was 6-12 last season. It was a chaotic year for the Beach. COVID-19 wreaked havoc on their season causing the team to miss nearly a month. Long Beach State also had a number of close losses, which makes their record look worse. Idaho is one of the worst teams in the country. The Vandal were 1-21 last season. They ranked 338th in adjusted offensive efficiency and were just as bad on the defensive end. Long Beach State has a number of returning starters. Idaho doesn't. The Vandal lost their only two double-digit scores from last season.
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -3 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Paul George is playing well. Damian Lillard is not shooting 35.1 percent from the field. The Clippers are on a four-game win streak and home. The Trail Blazers are 0-4 SU and ATS on the road. The Clippers have covered the last five times they've hosted the Trail Blazers, including beating them, 116-86, on Oct. 25. LA is averaging 116.7 points in its last three games. The Trail Blazers are an average defensive team at best. So I see this short spread being safe to lay.
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11-09-21 | Western Illinois v. Nebraska -15.5 | 75-74 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
I'm looking for Nebraska to be better than its 7-20 record last season. The Cornhuskers struggled in the rugged Big Ten going 3-16 in league play. But they've added several important players, including former Arizona State guard Alonzo Verge Jr. Nebraska looked good in its preseason games, including beating Colorado, 82-67, at home this past Sunday. Western Illinois last beat a Power 5 conference opponent back during the 2015-16 season. The Leathernecks finished seventh in the nine-team Summit League with a 5-9 conference mark last season. I have Nebraska power-rated to win this game by more than 20 points. |
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11-09-21 | Canisius v. Miami-FL -15 | 67-77 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
Miami holds a huge backcourt edge here led by Isaiah Wong, who was named a first-team All-ACC player in the preseason poll. The Hurricanes are deep at guard. They have had problems in the ACC, but are stepping way down in class here. Canisius only was able to play 13 games last season because of the pandemic going 7-6. The Hurricanes have looked good in their preseason games. I have them power rated by more than 20 points in this matchup. |
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11-09-21 | Fairfield v. Providence -14 | 73-80 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
I see Providence dominating this matchup against a middling Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference team. The Friars could have the top center in the Big East, Nate Watson. The Friars tuned up for this matchup burying Stonehill, 95-71, in an exhibition game. Playing Fairfield means a little something extra to Providence coach Ed Cooley. He coached the Stags for six years before coming to Providence. |