Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-08-23 | Pistons +13 v. Cavs | 85-113 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Cleveland can't be faulted for being overconfident. The Cavaliers have won three in a row, all in blowout fashion. Detroit is terrible. But the Pistons should produce an effort here with the trade deadline one day away. The Cavaliers have two of their key players questionable - Donovan Mitchell with groin soreness and Darius Garland with thumb soreness.
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02-07-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 112-146 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Due to playing the Timberwolves at Minnesota on less than 24 hours rest this past Sunday, the Nuggets held out a number of key players, including Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. The result was a 128-98 Timberwolves' victory. Welcome to today's NBA where teams combat unfair schedule spots by resting their best players, thus conceding the game before it even begins. The Nuggets had just beaten the Hawks this past Saturday night for their third straight win before deciding to give up against Minnesota the following day. This sets up a day of reckoning for the Timberwolves here. And I like the Nuggets, who will be back to full strength, to exact vengeance. Denver is 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a loss. The Timberwolves now are facing a fatigue factor - playing for the seven time in 12 days and third in five days - while missing players. Minnesota is minus injured Karl-Anthony Towns and suspended Austin Rivers. Kyle Anderson could be out, too, with a back injury. He's missed the last two games. |
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02-07-23 | NC State +7.5 v. Virginia | 50-63 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
North Carolina State is playing too well to be this high of a road underdog. The Wolfpack lead the ACC in scoring at 79.6 points a game. They are 8-1 in their last nine games with four consecutive victories. During this span, the Wolfpack have defeated Duke Miami, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. Virginia is a tremendous defensive team again. But the Cavaliers only average 70.3 points a game. Asking them to cover this high of a number is too much given North Carolina State's offense and high level of play.
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02-07-23 | Sharks v. Lightning -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
The Lightning entered All-Streak break on a 3-game win streak. They had that streak end very rudely falling, 7-1, to the Panthers on the road Monday night. Now Tampa Bay returns home where it has won 51 of the past 68 times to face San Jose, who is 16-39 in its last 55 road contests. I see this as a kill spot for the Lightning following their embarrassing loss. It helps that they got the rust off by playing on Monday. San Jose hasn't played since Jan. 28. The Sharks have dropped 15 of their last 20 games. They are giving up an average of 4.3 goals during their last nine games. Tampa Bay is 6-0 the past six times playing the Sharks. |
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02-06-23 | Mavs +9.5 v. Jazz | 124-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
I don't like laying points with the Mavericks. I do like them as an underdog, though, even when they don't have superstar Luka Doncic. That's the case again in this matchup. The teams just met on Jan. 28 in Salt Lake City. The Mavericks didn't have Doncic and lost, 108-100, in that game. The Mavericks were plus 7 1/12 in that matchup. So they just missed covering. Dallas had covered the previous five times on the road against the Jazz. Now the Mavericks are getting close to double-digits. They won't have Kyrie Irving yet, but their rotation players should be highly motivated to produce knowing their roles could change with the expected arrival of Irving. Dallas has had good success versus Utah covering 10 of the last 13 times. |
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02-06-23 | Spurs +10.5 v. Bulls | 104-128 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
The Bulls are laying the most points they have all season. I don't see the spot setting up well enough for them to cover. Chicago is fat and happy having won two in a row, both at home. The Bulls rallied from 17 points down to defeat the Trail Blazers, 129-121, this past Saturday. This marks Chicago's third game in five days. The Bulls have a much more challenging matchup on Tuesday when they meet the Grizzlies in Memphis. So there's no need for them to go all out against the lowly Spurs. Overconfidence could factor against the Bulls, too. San Antonio has lost eight in a row. This is the start of the Spurs' annual rodeo trip. They've been idle since Friday. The Spurs are capable of beating the Bulls. They proved that with a 129-124 win back on Oct. 28 during the first meeting this season. San Antonio has covered five of the last six times versus the Bulls. |
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02-06-23 | Cavs v. Wizards +3 | 114-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
The Wizards have blown 20-plus point leads in each of their last two games. So they should be extremely focused for this matchup. They catch the Cavaliers playing without rest after Cleveland defeated the Pacers, 122-103, on Sunday. This is important. So are the Wizards owning a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games versus opponents who are above .500 at home. Cleveland also is 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times when playing on zero rest and 2-7 ATS following a win. The Cavaliers are 6-14-2 ATS in their past 22 road games. That's a lot of trends lining up against the Cavaliers. Bradley Beal should play for the Wizards after missing their last game this past Saturday due to a foot injury. He participated in the Wizards' shootaround this morning. |
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02-05-23 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -2.5 | Top | 54-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
Don't count Wisconsin out. The Badgers, who have made the NCAA Tournament 22 of the past 23 seasons, have been one of the more disappointing teams but are showing life now. The buy sign is on them. They are healthy and off a confidence-building, 65-60, road win at Ohio State this past Thursday. Wisconsin has defeated Northwestern 17 of the past 20 times at Kohl Center. The Wildcats have averaged just 51.8 points during those games. This is a huge revenge game, too, for the Badgers. Northwestern defeated Wisconsin, 66-63, at home on Jan. 23. That snapped a seven-game Wisconsin win streak versus the Wildcats. You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Northwestern defeated Wisconsin in Madison. The Wildcats last swept a season series against the Badgers in 1996. The Wildcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 341st in field goal shooting and their defense is showing slippage giving up an average of 77 points in their last two games against Michigan and Iowa. Northwestern also is 1-4 ATS the past five times facing an above .500 opponent. |
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02-05-23 | Raptors v. Grizzlies -3.5 | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
I want the Grizzlies going for me at home in this spot. The Grizzlies are in an ornery mood following a 128-113 road loss to the Cavaliers. Dillon Brooks was suspended for this game because of his cheap shot actions against Donovan Mitchell in that loss to Cleveland. The Grizzlies don't see it that way. They believe the NBA is against them. Memphis has won eight of its last nine home games and are expected to get back center Jaren Jackson, who missed the Cavaliers game due to a thigh bruise. That's huge because Memphis remains without Steven Adams. Toronto concludes its seven-game, 12-day road journey here. The Raptors just beat the Rockets, 117-111, two days ago. The fatigue factor on the Raptors is high. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS the past eight times when playing an opponent with a winning home record. The Grizzlies are 36-15-1 (71 percent) ATS in their last 52 home contests. |
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02-04-23 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The Bucks and their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, are playing extremely well with six consecutive victories. But Milwaukee has trouble with Miami. The Heat have matched up well to the Bucks. I see another close game here. Only twice in their last 21 games have the Heat lost by more than five points. Miami has the No. 2 defense in the NBA giving up 108.1 points. The Heat are 5-1 ATS the past six times on the road when going against a foe with a home winning percentage better than .600. The Bucks still might be breathing a sigh of relief after a huge come-from-behind national TV win against the Clippers this past Thursday. Milwaukee pulled the game out, 106-105, by scoring the final seven points of the game. Even with that win, Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times versus opponents with a winning record. The Heat have covered the past four times against the Bucks, including posting 108-102 and 111-95 home victories on Jan. 12 and Jan. 14. Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, who is back healthy, didn't play in those games. Still, the Heat play the Bucks physically, tough and with confidence. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Heat pull out the outright win. |
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02-03-23 | Boise State +6.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season. Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday. The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many. Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points. The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games. |
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02-03-23 | Kings v. Pacers +2.5 | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
The Pacers are an underrated home team with a 16-11 record. They have covered eight of their past 11 home contests. Indiana has revenge for an embarrassing 23-point road loss to the Kings on Nov. 30. The Pacers also have back their best all-around player, Tyrese Haliburton. He played last night scoring 26 points and dishing off 12 assists against the Lakers after missing the previous 10 games. The Pacers blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead to the Lakers in that loss. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers' previous game before the Lakers was back on Sunday. So there should not be a fatigue factor. Sacramento will be missing its star guard and leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox. He's out for personal reasons. This will be the Kings' first game without him since Dec. 11. So there will be an adjustment factor. |
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02-02-23 | Santa Clara +14 v. Gonzaga | 70-88 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
Look, Gonzaga just isn't that dominant this season. Yet the oddsmaker continues to inflate the Bulldogs. This game is another example. Much is made of Gonzaga having its 75-game home winning streak ended on Jan. 19 by Loyola Marymount. Less publicized is the Bulldogs being 5-14-3 ATS during their past 22 home games. Santa Clara is 16-7 and deserving of being a shorter underdog than this point spread. The Broncos nearly upset Gonzaga in the first meeting on Jan. 7, losing 81-76, covering as an 8-point home 'dog. Santa Clara is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing an above .500 team. |
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02-02-23 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Mavs | 106-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are in full stop-the-pain mode, losers of nine in a row. Except for Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are finally healthy now. Brandon Ingram should have the rust off having played in the past three games following a 29-game absence because of a toe injury. New Orleans is stepping down in class after having played the Bucks this past Sunday and Nuggets two days ago. The Mavericks aren't fully healthy either minus Maxi Kleber and Christian Wood, their second-leading scorer at 18.4 points per game. Dallas is coming off a victory against the Pistons and has a bigger matchup on deck facing the Warriors on Saturday. The Mavericks are 5-20-1 ATS following a win. They also have been terrible when laying three or more points going 7-20-1 ATS in that role. |
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02-02-23 | Queens NC +4.5 v. Lipscomb | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Queens is the 21st-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.9 points. That's six points more per game than what Lipscomb averages. Queens has won two in a row, while scoring at least 81 points in three of its last four games. Lipscomb has lost and failed to cover its past two games. Power rating-wise, I have Queens as the better team. So getting this many points makes this a worthy investment. |
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02-02-23 | William & Mary +1 v. Hampton | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton. William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record. The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11. William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense. The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests. |
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02-01-23 | Pittsburgh +8.5 v. North Carolina | 65-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
The Panthers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road contests. They are 5-2 in road games this season with four of those wins coming versus ACC foes. Pittsburgh is off a 71-68 home win against ranked Miami this past Saturday. North Carolina hasn't played in more than a week. The rest is good for the Tar Heels, but it could come with some rust. The Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when meeting above .500 opponents. The Panthers beat North Carolina, 76-74, when the teams met on Dec. 30. Jamarius Burton had a monster game with 31 points. |
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01-31-23 | San Diego State v. Nevada +3.5 | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Kudos to San Diego State on being ranked 22nd in the latest AP Top 25 poll. The Aztecs hold the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. But I don't see them beating Nevada in Reno. The Wolf Pack are 10-0 at home. They are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. San Diego State defeated Nevada, 74-65, at home three weeks ago. The Aztecs got the Wolf Pack to play their game. That won't be the case in Reno. The Wolf Pack should also shoot much better. They shot under 40 percent from the field in that first meeting missing 20 of 25 3-point shots. |
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01-31-23 | Clippers -2.5 v. Bulls | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
The Clippers were riding a season-best five-game win streak going into their last game. That streak came to a crashing halt with a 122-99 road loss to the Cavaliers two days ago. The Clippers didn't play well in that game. They also chose to sit out superstars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George along with point guard Reggie Jackson. I don't care so much about Jackson, who is questionable with a sore Achilles, but Leonard and George aren't on the injury report. Both are expected to play. That's good enough for me to get involved with the Clippers against an inconsistent 23-26 Bulls squad that isn't in a great situational spot. It's Chicago's first home game in a week. The Bulls have been on the road for their past three games. Leonard and George are playing at high levels. Leonard is averaging 30.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.4 steals during his last five games. George is averaging 24.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.2 steals in his last five games. The Clippers have covered eight of the past 11 times when playing a below .500 opponent. The Bulls have a huge revenge game up next hosting the Hornets on Thursday. Charlotte upset the Bulls in embarrassing fashion, 111-96, this past Thursday in Charlotte. |
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01-31-23 | Northern Illinois +5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC. Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago. Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes. Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents. Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400. The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met. |
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01-30-23 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts -15 | Top | 53-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts. The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country. South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road. Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games. I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference. |
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01-30-23 | Magic +10 v. 76ers | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Despite two consecutive losses, Orlando has been one of the hottest point spread teams in the NBA covering 19 of its last 26 games for 73 percent. The 76ers have won seven in a row with the last two of their victories coming against the Nets and Nuggets this past Saturday. That's highly satisfying. Joel Embiid sparked the 76ers in that victory with 47 points and 18 rebounds in the 126-119 win. I see this as a flat spot for the 76ers. So much of a flat spot that there is the possibility they would rest Embiid, who has been dealing with left foot soreness. Even if Embiid plays, I believe the spunky Magic will hang in. They haven't lost three in a row since late December. Orlando is 8-4 ATS the past 12 times when getting points and is 13-3 ATS the past 16 times when playing on one day rest. |
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01-29-23 | Bengals +1 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -125 | 138 h 46 m | Show |
The Bengals are 3-0 against the Chiefs during the past 12 months. They beat them at Kansas City in the playoffs last season. They beat the Chiefs this season with Joe Burrow outplaying Patrick Mahomes. Now Mahomes isn't healthy dealing with a high ankle sprain. It's time to give Cincinnati its full due. The Bengals are the best team in the AFC. Cincinnati's underrated defense is peaking at the right time holding their last six opponents to less than 16 points a game. The high-powered Bills, with the second-most points and yards in the NFL, were held to 10 points by the Bengals. Mahomes will try to gut it out, but the ankle injury will limit his mobility. One of the reasons Mahomes has emerged as the best quarterback in the league is his ability to make plays on the move. Now he's strictly a pocket passer because of the ankle injury. Burrow is right up there with Mahomes - and he's healthy with better skill position weapons in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. The big question with the Bengals was how would their revamped offensive line hold up minus three starters? That question was answered against the Bills last Sunday when the Bengals dominated putting up 27 points, 412 yards and 30 first downs. Mixon had his best rushing game in more than two months. Cincinnati has been the hottest point spread team since the middle of last season covering 21 of its last 26 games. The Bengals have covered 69 percent of their last 54 road games. The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS during their past 10 home games. |
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01-28-23 | Mavs +8 v. Jazz | 100-108 | Push | 0 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
The Mavericks defeated the Suns on the road two days ago without Luka Doncic for most of the game and they can keep this game close minus Doncic. Dallas has won the past two times as an underdog defeating Phoenix and Miami eight days ago. Dallas has covered 10 of the last 12 times versus the Jazz, including the past five times in Utah. |
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01-28-23 | Illinois v. Wisconsin +2 | 61-51 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a circle-the-wagons game for Wisconsin, which is 1-5 in its last six games. The Badgers, though, are home - where they historically play much better - have their leading scorer Tyler Wahl back and are in revenge mode from a 79-69 loss suffered to Illinois three weeks ago. The Badgers should get a boost, too, with starting guard Max Klesmit expected to play. |
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01-28-23 | Samford v. Wofford +3 | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
Samford could still be suffering the after effects from a tough 91-84 overtime road loss to Furman this past Wednesday night in its biggest game of the season. Wofford, on the other hand, is off a confidence-building underdog road victory against Tennessee-Chattanooga this past Wednesday that halted a two-game losing streak. The Terriers have been strong in an underdog role this season covering six of eight. |
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01-27-23 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
The defending world champion Warriors are a disappointing 24-24. Golden State, though, is 18-6 at home. The Warriors will be highly motivated to defeat Toronto at home tonight. They still haven't forgotten the Raptors beating them to win the 2019 championship. Golden State also goes on the road for its next three games following this matchup. Toronto is 7-15 away from home. The Raptors are 6-14 ATS playing at Golden State. Toronto is fat and happy after an impressive, 113-95, win against the hot Kings this past Wednesday. The Raptors have won two straight. Only once this season have they posted three consecutive victories. |
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01-27-23 | Buffalo v. Kent State -10 | 68-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
I want Kent State going for me at home and off a stunning upset road loss to Northern Illinois this past Tuesday. The Golden Flashes had won 10 in a row until losing, 86-76, to the Huskies as a 13-point favorite. That was Kent State's first MAC loss in seven games. The Golden Flashes are 16-4 overall and unbeaten in nine home games. Buffalo is a mediocre 10-10 with a 2-6 road record. Kent State is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times hosting foes with losing road records. |
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01-26-23 | San Diego +4 v. Pepperdine | 87-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
San Diego is 9-12, including 2-5 in the West Coast Conference. But that's still better than Pepperdine, which is 7-14 and 0-7 in the WCC. The Toreros are a horrendous defensive team. They can score, though. ranking 48th in scoring. They also are 23rd in free throw accuracy. Pepperdine shot 56 percent from the floor against San Diego when the teams met two weeks ago in San Diego. The Toreros still won, 92-89, covering as 2 1/2-point favorites. I see this point spread being too lopsided in favor of Pepperdine. San Diego should have plenty of energy. The Toreros last played a week ago. They lost at Portland, 88-83, in that game. Pepperdine just played Portland, too, on the road this past Saturday. The Waves lost, 91-76, to Portland. Pepperdine has failed to cover now in seven of its last eight games. |
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01-26-23 | Bulls -5 v. Hornets | Top | 96-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
Since Dec. 28, the Bulls have beaten many teams much better than the Hornets. The list includes the Bucks, Nets, 76ers, Jazz, Warriors and Hawks. Chicago was riding a three-game winning and covering streak going into this past Tuesday's game against Indiana. The Pacers were minus Tyrese Haliburton, their best all-around player, and had lost seven in a row. The Bulls built a 21-point lead and looked in full control. But the Pacers stunned the Bulls by scoring 70 points in the second half to win, 116-110. Chicago has a chance for redemption now playing the Hornets. Not only are the Hornets terrible - with the third-worst record in the NBA at 13-36 - but they are banged-up and in a bad situational spot. Kelly Oubre and Cody Martin are out for Charlotte. LaMelo Ball missed Charlotte's last game because of an ankle injury. He's questionable as is Gordon Hayward, who has a groin injury. Ball is the Hornets' leading scorer and top assists man. Oubre is the team's No. 3 scorer. Hayward ranks fifth on the team in scoring. Martin is a reliable rotation player. The Hornets are 5-16 at home. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games. Charlotte ranks 28th defensively giving up 119.1 points per game. That figure climbs to 123.8 points going by their last eight games. The Bulls rank fifth in the NBA in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. The spot isn't good either for the Hornets. They just returned from a four-game, seven-day road trip that concluded Tuesday night in Phoenix with a 31-point loss to the Suns. Charlotte has lost and failed to cover during its past five home games. |
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01-26-23 | SMU +13 v. Memphis | 84-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm not going to make out that 7-13 SMU is a good team. The Mustangs aren't. But they have been playing solid defense holding their last three opponents to an average of 63 points in regulation. Memphis is not a good defensive team and the Tigers don't cover point spreads - 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. The Tigers have failed to cover the last seven times they've played a sub .500 opponent. |
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01-25-23 | Samford +7 v. Furman | Top | 84-91 | Push | 0 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range. Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line. Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent. This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times. |
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01-25-23 | South Carolina +16.5 v. Florida | 60-81 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
South Carolina has proven to be tough on the road. Just ask Kentucky. The Gamecocks upset the Wildcats, 71-68, at Rupp Arena on Jan. 10. South Carolina hasn't won since losing three in a row - all at home. So going back on the road may be a good thing for the Gamecocks. They've covered their past four road games. Florida has been playing well. However, the Gators aren't likely to have starting 6-foot-9 forward Alex Fudge, their second-leading rebounder. That would hurt their size advantage forcing them to employ four guards. The Gators are off a narrow victory against Mississippi State. They are 5-14 ATS following a victory. |
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01-24-23 | North Carolina v. Syracuse +4.5 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group. Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS. Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games. The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark. |
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01-24-23 | Davidson -3.5 v. La Salle | 64-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
I want Davidson in circle-the-wagon mode after four straight losses. The Wildcats covered in their last two games losing to George Mason by two points on the road and to Dayton on the road by seven points. The Wildcats last played a week ago. They should be pointing to this matchup. I'm not a fan of LaSalle. The Explorers rank 330th in field goal percentage and aren't good on the defensive end either. The Wildcats are the better free throw shooting team, too. |
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01-23-23 | Delaware State v. South Carolina State -6.5 | 88-85 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Nothing like watching the two worst teams in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference to induce a deep sleep. How can 3-17 South Carolina State be a mid-range favorite? The answer is being at home and playing Delaware State. The Hornets are in the discussion for worst Division I team in college basketball at 1-16. They've lost 15 in a row. Delaware State is horrible both offensively, averaging 61.6 points, and defensively giving up 75.4 points. Yes, this is bad on bad. But South Carolina State is in better current form averaging 81.2 points in its last five games. Delaware State is averaging 57 points during its last seven games. The Hornets are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games. Delaware State has failed to cover in its last eight games. |
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01-23-23 | Bucks -11 v. Pistons | Top | 150-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Sure it's a huge plus if Giannis Antetokounmpo can play having been out with knee soreness. But I see the motivated Bucks rolling past the Pistons even if Antetokounmpo can't go. Milwaukee is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three of its last five games, including 114-102 to the Cavaliers this past Saturday. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS following a non-cover. The Pistons are the worst team in the Eastern Conference. They are 1-6 in their last seven games. Detroit has lost by 12 or more points in seven of its last eight defeats. There's also a situational factor working against Detroit. The Pistons just played in Paris this past Thursday where they were blown out by the Bulls, 126-108. So jet lag and concentration could be issues. From a historical perspective the Bucks have dominated this series winning 15 of the last 16 times. Milwaukee is 2-0 versus Detroit this season with wins by two points and 25 points. Both of those victories were in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times meeting the Pistons in Detroit. |
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01-23-23 | Celtics v. Magic +8.5 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Boston is hot, winners of nine in a row. The Celtics also are banged-up and in a flat spot. Boston has a bigger game on Tuesday playing the Heat in Miami. The Celtics won't have Jayson Tatum today. They aren't likely to have Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III either. Both were injured in the Celtics' 106-104 road victory at Toronto this past Saturday. That was a gutty win for the Celtics. Boston loses a lot of defense without Smart and Williams. The Magic should be motivated after giving up a season-high 138 points to the Wizards in a 20-point road loss to the Wizards two days ago. The Magic lacked energy in that game having beaten the Pelicans at home the night before. They should be far more physical in this matchup. Until that loss to the Wizards, the Magic were flying below the radar going 12-8 SU, 15-5 ATS pulling off straight-up underdog victories against the Celtics, Raptors, Warriors, Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Clippers. |
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01-22-23 | Grizzlies -9 v. Suns | 110-112 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Suns for beating the Nets and Pacers during their last two games despite having multiple injuries to key players. However, I don't see the Suns winning a third straight game minus so many players against an angry Grizzlies squad. Memphis had its 11-game win streak halted by the Lakers on Friday night, 122-121. The Grizzlies blew a 13-point second-half lead. Until defeating the Pacers - who shot 37.5 percent from the floor against Phoenix and were missing their leading scorer, Tyrese Haliburton - the Suns had lost nine of 10. The Suns are without Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton - their three best players - along with Cam Johnson and guards Cam Payne and Landry Shamet. The Grizzlies hosted the Suns three games ago and buried Phoenix, 136-106, six days ago. |
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01-22-23 | Temple +20 v. Houston | 56-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Underrated 11-9 Temple hasn't lost a game by more than 20 points this season. I understand the Owls haven't met a team as good as Houston. But I do see this line as being inflated. The Owls are playing well with five wins in their last seven games going 6-1 ATS during this time frame. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 road contests when matched against a foe with a home winning percentage of more than .600. Houston hasn't looked sharp in two of its last three home games. The Cougars struggled to beat South Florida, 83-77, as a 23 1/2-point favorite and only beat Central Florida, 71-65, as a 15 1/2-point favorite. |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 21 m | Show |
Kudos to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars for staging the third biggest comeback in NFL postseason history in coming from 27 points down to nip the Chargers at home last week. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, their season ends here. The rested Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, winners of a five in a row. Andy Reid-coached teams are 27-4 following a bye. History is against Jacksonville. Wild-card winners who pulled upsets are 17-29 (37 percent) ATS the following week. The Jaguars are inexperienced in big games and overmatched by the Chiefs - on both sides of the ball. Kansas City is the top offensive team in the NFL ranking first in points and total yards. Prior to edging the Chargers and Justin Herbert, 31-30, the Jaguars had faced three straight opponents with bad quarterbacks: Jets with Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler, Texans with Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel and Titans with third-stringer Josh Dobbs. The Jaguars faced six above average quarterbacks since Week 4 going against the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Cowboys and Chargers. Jacksonville surrendered an average of 31.1 points in those games. Now the Jaguars draw Patrick Mahomes, who torched them for 333 passing yards and four touchdowns going 26-of-35 throwing in a 27-17 Week 10 home victory. The Chiefs netted 486 yards in that game, which is the most the Jaguars have allowed all season. The Chiefs built a 20-0 lead. They won't be coasting in this situation if they build up another early advantage. I don't see Lawrence being able to keep up with Mahomes at this early stage of his career. The Chiefs showed tremendous defensive improvement, ranking 11th in total defense and No. 2 in sacks with 55. They also batted the most passes down from the line of scrimmage. Lawrence wasn't playing that well down the stretch until the second half against the Chargers. He had averaged 197.6 passing yards with a 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last three weeks of the regular season, having trouble against the defenses of the Titans and Jets. This is the game where Lawrence could really miss his injured left tackle Cam Robinson. Chris Jones produced 15 1/2 sacks and 29 quarterback hits for the Chiefs. Player Props Travis Etienne Over 19 1/2 receiving yards The Chiefs have surrendered an average of 29 receiving yards to running backs. That's the worst in the league. Travis Etienne caught three passes for 28 yards when the teams met back in Week 10. The Chiefs ranked No. 2 in sacks with 55. So Trevor Lawrence should be dumping the ball off to Etienne either on a screen pass or short pass often to combat Kansas City's pass rush. Kadarius Toney Over 30 1/2 receiving yards Kadarius Toney is in line to being a bigger part of the Chiefs' offense with Mecole Hardman ruled out against the Jaguars because of a pelvic injury. Patrick Mahomes is well aware of Toney's talents. Just two games ago, Toney had 71 receiving yards. The weakest part of Jacksonville's defense is their pass defense. It ranks 28th. |
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01-19-23 | 76ers v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The 76ers are 3-0 on their five-game Western Conference road swing and playing well. But I see them getting tripped up by the Trail Blazers here. It's Philadelphia's fourth game in six days. The 76ers have failed to cover a spread during their last six games in Portland. The Trail Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 home games. Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games when facing an opponent that has a winning home record. Portland is playing well, too. The Trail Blazers won and covered both of their home games against the Mavericks this past Saturday and Sunday. They then played the Nuggets tough in Denver two days ago in a loss that had a misleading final score. Look for Portland to bounce back being home again catching the 76ers fat and happy. |
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01-19-23 | Rutgers v. Michigan State -2.5 | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rutgers is having a strong season breaking into the Top-25. But the Scarlet Knights have never won at Michigan State. I don't see that changing here. The Spartans are off tough losses against Illinois and third-ranked Purdue, 64-63. This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Spartans and they are home. Michigan State has played very strong offenses this season yet rank 36th in defensive efficiency. I see the Scarlet Knights have problems scoring. |
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01-17-23 | Alabama v. Vanderbilt +8.5 | 78-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt is battle-tested, at home and draws the Crimson Tide being possibly distracted by Darius Miles being kicked off the team after he was arrested and charged with murder in a shooting death of a young mother. Alabama is playing well, but is in a letdown spot after burying LSU, 106-66, this past Saturday. Vanderbilt has played three straight ranked teams. The Commodores are better than their 9-8 record. Just ask 15th-ranked Arkansas. Vanderbilt defeated the Razorbacks, 97-84, at home this past Saturday. Alabama has been at its point spread-worst when playing on Tuesday going 1-10 ATS the past 11 times. |
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01-17-23 | Nets -6 v. Spurs | Top | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
The Nets must prove they can win without Kevin Durant. Or at least beat bottom-feeders. This is their chance. I see the Nets being highly motivated in this matchup against the Spurs, who are 1-8 in their last nine games, including losing five in a row. Brooklyn had won 14 of 15 games. But then superstar Durant went down with a knee injury and the Nets lost to the Celtics - no shame in that - and then suffered an upsetting, 112-102, home loss to the Thunder this past Sunday. Ben Simmons didn't play in the loss to the Thunder because of back pain. Simmons has been cleared to play in this game, which is a boost to the Nets' shrinking rotation. Not only do the Nets want to redeem themselves for losing to the Thunder, but this also is the start of a five-game road trip consisting of games against the Suns, Jazz, Warriors and 76ers. Brooklyn doesn't want to start out with a loss to the 13-31 Spurs. So the Nets should be focused. The Nets give up 11 fewer points per game than San Antonio, which ranks last in all of the major defensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Spurs' defense has been especially bad lately. The Spurs are surrendering an average of 130.6 points during their last five games. The Nets have covered five of the last six games in this series. |
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01-17-23 | Houston v. Tulane +11 | 80-60 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
This is Tulane's game of the year. I can see the Green Wave keeping this one closer than the oddsmaker believes. Tulane is 12-5, including 5-1 in the American Athletic Conference, and has won five in a row. Houston gave up a season-high 77 points in a six-point victory against South Florida last Wednesday. The Cougars were 23 1/2-point home favorites in that contest. The Cougars were missing their second-leading scorer, Jarace Walker, and key reserve Ramon Walker Jr. Walker is likely to play while Walker Jr. remains out.
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01-16-23 | Montana State -8.5 v. Idaho | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
It shouldn't surprise that Idaho is last in the Big Sky Conference at 0-5. The Vandals are 6-12 overall. Montana State is second in the Big Sky at 5-1. The Bobcats are 12-7 overall. They have covered the past six times against opponents with a losing record. Montana State is playing well, winning and covering each of its last four games. Each of the victories was by double-digits. By contrast, Idaho has lost six in a row with five of those defeats occurring by double-digits. Look for this pattern to continue here. |
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01-16-23 | Cal Poly v. Cal-Riverside -7.5 | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
UC Riverside is 5-1 in the Big West Conference and 12-6 overall. Cal Poly is 1-4 in the conference and 7-10 overall. The Highlanders have covered the last nine times against sub .500 opponents. The Highlanders have held their last four foes to an average of 59 points. Cal Poly is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, averaging 61.3 points. Riverside averages 11 more points per game than Cal Poly. The Mustangs are averaging only 53.4 points during their past four games. |
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01-16-23 | Princeton +1.5 v. Pennsylvania | 72-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Princeton had won four in a row until suffering a two-point road loss to Brown this past Saturday. The Tigers have covered six of their last seven road games. Princeton is much stronger defensively than Penn, giving up eight fewer points per game than the Quakers. Penn has dropped two of its last three Ivy League games. |
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01-15-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -7 | Top | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 123 h 48 m | Show |
Even if Lamar Jackson were to play, the Ravens aren't in the Bengals' class. Jackson is sure to be rusty, too, having been out for more than five weeks. Jackson relies on his mobility and that is going to be affected, too, by his knee injury. If Jackson doesn't start, this line will move much higher. The Bengals are the hottest team in the AFC winners of eight in a row. They are 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games. Led by Joe Burrow, the Bengals have scored at least 27 points in seven of their last 11 games. The Ravens have managed five touchdowns in their last 23 quarters. They haven't broken the 17-point barrier in their past six games. |
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01-15-23 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Rutgers | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm going to accept this many points with Ohio State in stop-the-pain mode. The Buckeyes have lost three in a row. However, two of those defeats were in the final seconds in a two-point loss to Purdue and a three-point defeat to Minnesota as big favorites. Ohio State is 11-5 ATS following a loss. The Buckeyes also beat Rutgers earlier this season. Rutgers is a bit fat and happy after pulling out a 65-62 win against Northwestern this past Wednesday. |
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01-15-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -10.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 32 m | Show |
It's not just the quarterback position where the Dolphins are hurting. They have injuries to their best offensive lineman, left tackle Terron Armstead, most elusive running back, Raheem Mostert, and their two stud wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. There's just not enough healthy firepower for the Dolphins to stay within double-digits of the Bills. Buffalo was a coin flip against the Chiefs away from going to the Super Bowl last season. The Bills are just as good - if not better - this season. They are No. 2 in points scored and No. 2 in fewest points allowed. The Dolphins were life-and-death with the Joe Flacco-led Jets at home last week to even sneak into the playoffs. Miami has a negative point differential on the season. This is the Dolphins' first playoff appearance since 2016. They are just happy to be here. Josh Allen put up 42 touchdowns for the Bills. The banged-up Dolphins can't match Buffalo's firepower. The Bills have tremendous motivation to reach the Super Bowl for stricken teammate Damar Hamlin. The point spread is high - but not high enough. Look for a Bills' blowout. |
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01-14-23 | Grizzlies v. Pacers +8.5 | 130-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Look, I like the Grizzlies. But I don't like them enough to lay this many points in a flat spot against a good home team such as the Pacers. The line is high - inflated in my view - because Indiana is without point guard Tyrese Haliburton and center Myles Turner. There's a chance, though, the Pacers get back forward Aaron Nesmith, who has missed the last two games due to illness. I also like the Pacers' younger players, particularly Bennedict Mathurin. I believe they will step up given the opportunity. The Grizzlies aren't 100 percent healthy either with Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke both questionable. Memphis has won eight in a row. However, the Grizzlies' last five victories were against the Spurs twice, slumping Jazz, Magic and Hornets. Memphis has failed to cover its last three games and has a bigger game on deck at home in revenge mode against the Suns. The Pacers are 15-8 at home, including 6-1 SU and ATS in their past seven home contests. They are off a tough, 113-111, home loss last night to the Hawks, who scored the winning basket with less than a second left. Indiana is 21-8 ATS when playing on zero rest. Memphis is 2-8 ATS the last 10 times on the road when playing an opponent with an above .500 home mark. |
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01-13-23 | Rockets +9.5 v. Kings | 114-139 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
This is only the third time the Kings are laying more than 9 points. They are 0-2 ATS the previous two times. The Rockets are a bottom feeder, but they shouldn't lack motivation in a rapid revenge spot. The Kings beat Houston, 135-115, two days ago at home. That score was misleading, though. The Rockets led with 8:44 to go before the Kings scored 26 of the final 37 points. The Kings were aided by getting 14 more free throw attempts than the Rockets. Houston lost point guard Kevin Porter Jr. just 10 minutes into the game with a bruised foot. It's a plus if he can play today. If not, the Rockets won't go in unprepared to not having him. Sacramento has failed to cover in six of its last eight home games. |
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01-13-23 | Pelicans -5 v. Pistons | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
This is my Game of the Week. The Pistons are off a 135-118 win against the Timberwolves on Wednesday. Detroit hasn't won consecutive games since Nov. 22-23. I don't see the Pistons doing that here. Each of the Pistons' last nine losses were by double-digits. New Orleans is 7-5 in its last 12 games. However, all five of the losses during this span were to good teams. The Pelicans are several tiers better than the Pistons, which makes this point spread too small. Yes, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram remain out for the Pelicans. However, the Pistons also have injuries and their rotation isn't as talented as New Orleans is. Detroit has been without frontcourt players Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart. |
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01-12-23 | Colorado v. USC -3 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
This is USC's first home game since Dec. 18. I'm expecting a big performance from the Trjoans, who lost the past two games of their three-game Pac-12 road trip. USC has won seven of its eight home games. Colorado's only road victory came against weak Stanford. The Buffaloes have suffered road defeats to Grambling, Washington and California. Colorado was double-digit favorites against Gambling and California. This easily is the Buffaloes' toughest road task. I'm not looking for them to pass it. USC is the better defensive team and a much better free throw shooting team. |
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01-12-23 | Thunder +10 v. 76ers | 133-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
The Thunder have been double-digit underdogs four times this season - and covered each time Oklahoma City has the best point spread mark in the NBA at 25-16 for 61 percent. Oklahoma City has short revenge for a 115-96 home loss suffered to the 76ers on New Year's Eve. The Thunder have thrived in these spots going 19-8 in their last 27 (70 percent) away games when taking on an opponent with a winning home record. The 76ers are a bit fat and happy off consecutive easy victories against the Pistons. The Thunder are off a frustrating, 112-111, road loss to the Heat from Tuesday. Miami won by making all 40 of its free throws. It was the third straight game the Thunder have covered and fourth in their last five. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are playing at high levels. They can keep the Thunder in this game. |
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01-11-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -12.5 | 97-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm going to fade the injury-ravaged Suns following their huge upset win against the Warriors last night at Golden State. Phoenix stunned the Warriors despite missing Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Cam Johnson, Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne. Before that game, the Suns had lost nine of 10, including six in a row. The Nuggets are rolling, winning their last three games by an average of 19 points with all three victories coming by at least 13 points. Denver has held its last three foes to an average of 102.6 points. |
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01-11-23 | Abilene Christian -6 v. UT-Rio Grande Valley | Top | 86-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
Abilene Christian hasn't lost consecutive games since Nov. 23, a span of 10 games. I like the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way against UT Rio Grande following a tough 74-72 home loss to Southern Utah, the highest scoring team in the nation. The Wildcats held the Thunderbirds 13 points under their season average, but shot 16 fewer free throws than Southern Utah and missed 20 of 25 3-point shots. The Wildcats like to play a methodical style stressing defense. That should work far better against struggling Rio Grande, which has lost four in a row. Abilene Christian ranks in the top 90 in scoring defense giving up 65.4 points per game. The Vaqueros rank 351st defensively, allowing 78.8 points. The Wildcats also commit fewer turnovers and are the better 3-point shooting team. |
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01-10-23 | Seton Hall v. Georgetown +9.5 | 66-51 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Seton Hall tends to play to the opposition's level. The Pirates are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing foes that have a winning percentage below .400. Georgetown fits that category. The Hoyas are desperate for a victory having lost seven in a row. The Hoyas actually average more points per game than Seton Hall although they play far worse defense. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times. |
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01-10-23 | Thunder v. Heat -3.5 | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The spot is right for the Heat to cover this number. Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games. The only bad loss the Heat have during this span is to the Lakers on the road by three points. The other two defeats were to the 27-13 Nuggets on the road by five points and at home to the sizzling Nets by one point this past Sunday. There is no way Miami overlooks Oklahoma City, which is four games below .500. Not only have the Thunder won two in a row, but the Heat's next two games are both against the Bucks. So the Heat can not afford a home defeat to this lowly opponent. This is only the Thunder's third road matchup in their last 13 games. Oklahoma City is fat and happy having won its last two games, both at home against the Wizards and Mavericks, who were missing superstar Luka Doncic, two days ago. The Thunder have lost their last four road contests - falling to the Magic by 11, Hornets by 8, Cavaliers by 7 and Grizzlies by 21 for an average away loss of 11.7 points. Oklahoma City is 13-9 at home, but 5-13 on the road. |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 118 h 56 m | Show |
Unbeaten Georgia had its scare in its last game, edging Ohio State by one point in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Day. The Bulldogs are 28-1 the past two seasons. During this two-year span, they have won by two touchdowns or more 86 percent of the time. TCU has been a great story getting to the national title game after being projected as a middle-to-bottom tier Big 12 team. But the Horned Frogs are not in Georgia's class. That's obvious by this point spread. But are Bulldogs two touchdowns better than the Horned Frogs? Yes, they are. Georgia is elite on both sides of the ball. They also have far bigger game experience than the Horned Frogs. The Bulldogs had one of greatest college defenses of all time last season. This season they ranked No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 12.8 points. They had the nation's No. 2 run defense and ranked ninth in total defense. TCU can't match that. The Horned Frogs ranked 74th in total defense, 83rd in pass defense and 57th in scoring defense. They don't have NFL-caliber talent at many defensive spots like Georgia does. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett is going to produce lots of points against TCU. Bennett really came into his own this season ranking in the top-10 in passing yards and completion percentage. Max Duggan has been outstanding for TCU. But this is the toughest defense by far that he's seen. The Horned Frogs may not have their star running back, Kendre Miller, who is questionable for the game. The Bulldogs defeated Oregon by 46 points, South Carolina by 41, Florida by 22, Tennessee by 14, Mississippi State by 26 and LSU by 20. Those were some serious whippings. I see Georgia's class difference showing up here. |
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01-09-23 | Bucks +1.5 v. Knicks | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
The Knicks are fat and happy, winners of four in a row. Note that two of those four victories were achieved against bottom-feeders San Antonio and Houston. New York is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The Bucks have had all weekend to reflect about a shocking, 138-109, home loss to the lowly Hornets this past Friday. Giannis Antetokounmpo was held to a season-low nine points. I see Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee bouncing back here. The Bucks are 4-1-1 ATS in their six visits to Madison Square Garden. |
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01-09-23 | South Carolina State v. Morgan State -9 | 85-90 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
This number came up short, according to my power rankings so I'm on host Morgan State, which is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games. The Bears are playing their best ball of the season winning three in a row. South Carolina State is 3-14. The Bulldogs have been blown out in their last three games, losing by double-digits each time. They could be the worst defensive team in the nation giving up 86.3 points. |
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01-08-23 | Jazz +9 v. Grizzlies | 118-123 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
I respect the Grizzlies and they are hot with five straight wins. Utah is off a disappointing road loss to the Bulls last night. However, I see this as too many points for the Grizzlies to be laying. They were on the road for their last two games, having last played this past Thursday. I question their motivation and concentration being fat and happy right now. Utah is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Jazz, though, haven't lost any of those six games by more than eight points. They are 8-1 ATS the past nine times versus foes with a winning percentage above .600. Utah also is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games against the Grizzlies, including winning and covering both matchups earlier this season. Those games were back in October so this isn't a huge revenge spot for Memphis. |
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01-08-23 | Chargers v. Broncos -3 | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
The 2022 Broncos were a disaster under overmatched first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett. But the 2023 Broncos under Jerry Rosburg are much more professional, helped by Russell Wilson finally playing better. Denver would very much like to avoid losing 13 games for the first time in the 62-year-old history of the team. The Broncos can accomplish that by beating the Chargers. If the Bengals defeat the Ravens - and they currently are 9 1/2-point home favorites to do so - the Chargers would be locked into the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs rendering this matchup meaningless. The Chargers would know that result since this game goes later in the day while the Ravens-Bengals is an early game. This is what Chargers coach Brandon Staley said about that scenario, '' Once we find out about that game, we'll make the appropriate decisions moving forward ...'' The Chargers signalled their intent not to risk injury to any key starters last week pulling out starters early in the fourth quarter during their 31-10 win against the Rams. So there's a very good chance that journeyman backup quarterback Chase Daniel could play far more than Justin Herbert. Even if the Chargers play their starters, I still like the Broncos based on Wilson performing better, being at home and having the superior defense. The Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times hosting the Chargers. |
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01-08-23 | Patriots v. Bills -7 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 43 h 46 m | Show |
The Bills are definitely a touchdown better than the Patriots, especially playing at home. Buffalo has defeated New England the past three times by an average of 18.6 points, while outgaining them by average of 143.3 yards. Buffalo ranks No. 2 in total yards and fourth in scoring at 28 points a game. The Bills also rank No. 2 in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. The Patriots rank 26th in total offense and are below average in scoring even though their defense has contributed seven touchdowns. Only once in their last 10 games have the Patriots gained more than 328 yards, being held to fewer than 300 yards seven times during this span. Not only has the Patriots' scoring total been skewed by their seven defensive touchdowns - most in the league since 2017 - but their defensive numbers have been bolstered by having had the good fortune to have played six backup quarterbacks. New England achieved seven of its eight victories going against the following quarterbacks: Mitchell Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, Zach Wilson twice and Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson. So I find the Bills to be much superior to the Patriots. However, there is a key mental component here: How will the Bills react to their safety, Damar Hamlin, going into cardiac arrest this past Monday night against the Bengals? This is a much tougher question to answer. But I believe the Bills will come out hard and try to win big for Hamlin. His condition has shown much improvement allowing the Bills to concentrate. Mario Hamlin, Damar's father, told the Buffalo players to focus on the game because that's what his son would want. The Bills also have less wear and tear on them from Monday's game being called off after just nine minutes rather than the Patriots, who have been involved in close games each of the last three weeks. |
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01-08-23 | Vikings -7 v. Bears | 29-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
Nathan Peterman. Need I say more? OK, I will. The Bears have lost nine in a row, most in franchise history. Their defense has fallen apart, done in by injuries and trades to the tune of surrendering 34 points a game during their nine-game losing skid. There's more. The Bears could clinch the No. 1 pick in the draft with a loss and a victory by the Texans against the Colts. The Vikings are in the playoffs, but they still have incentive. They have a shot at the No. 2 slot. They also want to erase the stench of a 41-17 road loss to the Packers last week. Minnesota hasn't lost two games in a row all season. Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell said he would go with his starters against the Bears. That's not the case with Chicago. Justin Fields is being held out so Peterman gets the start. I regard him as one of the worst reserve quarterbacks of all-time. Somehow Peterman has lasted five years in the NFL. He's played in 12 games, completed 52.5 percent with a puny 4.2 yards per pass and a 3-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's a threat to throw a pick-six every time he drops back to pass. Minnesota has beaten Chicago during the past three meetings winning by seven or more points each time. |
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01-08-23 | Bucs +4 v. Falcons | 17-30 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
I don't see the justification in the Falcons being favored here. Yes, the 8-8 Buccaneers have clinched the NFC South Division. But they want very much to finish above .500 and build positive momentum for the playoffs. Todd Bowles knows his team has to be sharp. That's why he said he will be playing his starters, including Tom Brady. Brady is coming off his best game throwing for 432 yards and three TD's against the Panthers, who have a better defense than the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 29th defensively in total yards and 26th in pass defense. The Falcons aren't very good on offense either. They are averaging 15.2 points in their last five games. Atlanta hasn't scored more than 20 points in seven of its last eight games. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder is set to make his fourth NFL start. He's yet to throw a TD pass. He's facing a top-eight defense in the Buccaneers, who also are tough to run against. Tampa Bay has won the last five games in the series. |
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01-07-23 | Titans +6.5 v. Jaguars | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm not sold on the untested Jaguars coming through in big games. Tennessee has that big-game experience. Jacksonville doesn't. The Titans have been in free-fall with six straight losses. They still can win the AFC South, though, with a victory here. The Titans have been decimated with injuries. But they are getting some key players back, including a rested Derrick Henry and two of their best defenders, lineman Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry, their top pass rusher. Tennessee found out the hard way that rookie Malik Willis is not a skilled enough passer. So the Titans are giving Joshua Dobbs a second consecutive start. He makes better decisions than Willis, provides the Titans with at least the threat of a downfield passing game and has Henry to rely upon. The Jaguars rank 28th in pass defense. Henry has a strong history against Jacksonville with two 200-yard rushing games and three 100-yard rushing games. The Titans also have an underrated weapon - punter Ryan Stonehouse. He's averaging 53 yards per punt. The NFL record is 51.4 yards set by Hall of Famer Sammy Baugh in 1940. Tennessee has won nine of the past 11 meetings against Jacksonville going 8-3 ATS. The Titans have covered in four of their last five visits to Jacksonville. |
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01-07-23 | Jazz +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 118-126 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
Surprised the spread is so low here? Don't be. The Bulls are in a tough situational spot. Chicago just ended the 76ers' 11-game home win streak, beating Philadelphia, 126-112, on Friday night. The 76ers were minus injured Joel Embiid. The Bulls also ended the Nets' 12-game win streak with a 121-112 win this past Wednesday. Back-to-back impressive victories for the Bulls. But now they fly back to Chicago where they'll have the rested Jazz awaiting them. The Jazz halted a five-game losing streak by rolling past the Rockets, 131-114, on the road this past Thursday. Utah had lost its previous five games by an average of three points with the five defeats occurring by a combined 15 points. Lauri Markkanen scored a career-high 49 points to lead Utah past Houston. Now Markkanen faces his former team. The Bulls are not only playing without rest, but this is their third game in four days and fourth game in six days. The Bulls are reliant on their 3-point shooting. Zach LaVine hit 11 of 13 3-pointers against the 76ers. Utah, though, ranks in the top-10 in 3-point defense. |
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01-06-23 | Stanford v. California +9 | 70-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
California is beginning to play better going 2-1 in its last three games. The Bears have gotten a boost from transfer guard DeJuan Clayton, who has played in the last two games after missing the first 13 due to a hamstring injury. But mainly this is a fade on Stanford. The Cardinal aren't that much better than Cal, certainly not where this point spread is at. The Cardinal are 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS. They haven't played a hard schedule either. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering 10 of the last 14. That's the way I'm going. |
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01-06-23 | Iona v. Marist +12.5 | 84-57 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
This is too many points for Iona to be laying in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference battle. Both teams are solid defensively giving up 66 points per game. This has been an underdog series with the team getting points covering the past five times. |
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01-04-23 | Hawks +2 v. Kings | Top | 120-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The Hawks are in stop-the-pain mode. They've lost four in a row. Two of those losses were in heart-breaking fashion. One was a double overtime road loss to the Warriors in their last game played two days ago. The other was a one-point loss to the sizzling Nets. The Kings return to Sacramento off a 117-115 road win against the Jazz on Tuesday night, scoring the winning basket with 0.4 seconds to play. The Kings have failed to cover in their last four home games. The Hawks have won the last three meetings between the two teams, including scoring a 115-106 home win on Nov. 23. |
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01-04-23 | Stars -1.5 v. Ducks | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Stars won't be taking the Ducks lightly after their four-game win streak was snapped by the Kings last night. Dallas is the third-highest scoring team in the NHL, while the Ducks are historically bad defensively. The Stars own huge special teams edges with the second-best power play and fourth-best penalty kill units in the NHL. Anaheim, by contrast, ranks second-worst on the power play and third-worst in killing penalties. The Ducks have lost by more than one goal during eight of their past nine defeats. |
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01-04-23 | Evansville +14.5 v. Missouri State | 62-85 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
I just see this as too many points for Missouri State to be laying given the spot and series history. The underdog has covered 69 percent of the last 27 meetings. Missouri State is in a letdown spot after a 52-49 win against Drake on New Year's Day in perhaps its biggest win of the season. The Purple Aces have yet to win in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. They should play hard here. |
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01-04-23 | Iowa State +4 v. Oklahoma | 63-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
Iowa State's defensive pressure should keep the Cyclones in this one - if not pulling the outright upset. The Cyclones are playing well with a three-game win streak. They rank ninth in scoring defense giving up just 57.3 points per game, while forcing 20.8 turnovers a game. That's the most among major-conference schools. Oklahoma has a minus 1.9 turnover margin, which is the worst in the Big 12. Iowa State leads the Big 12 and is second in the country with a plus 7.8 turnover margin. |
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01-03-23 | Mississippi State +10.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 53-87 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
This is a very low total as befitting two elite defenses. Both teams are 11-2. Mississippi State gives up the fourth-fewest points in the nation at 54.5 points. Tennessee surrenders only 53.2 points per game, third-best in the country. Scoring is going to be at a premium here so I'll gladly accept this many points with the underdog Bulldogs in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring matchup. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus above .500 foes. |
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01-02-23 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff +7.5 v. Alabama A&M | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Other than perhaps Grambling State, the Southwestern Athletic Conference isn't very good at all. So my eyebrows are raised when I see one team favored by so much against another team. Arkansas Pine Bluff and Alabama A&M are each 4-9. I have them close to even power rating-wise. So I see this as too many points for the Bulldogs to be laying. Arkansas Pine Bluff is the better defensive team ranking 207th allowing 69.6 points a game. Alabama A&M gives up 76.8 points a game, which ranks the Bulldogs 338th. The Golden Lions are above average in 3-point defense. That's a key because the Bulldogs' strength is 3-point accuracy. The Golden Lions are 5-1 ATS the past six times meeting a sub .500 opponent. The Bulldogs are 6-13 ATS the past 19 times when facing a foe with a below 40 percent winning percentage. |
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01-02-23 | Bulls v. Cavs -4 | 134-145 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
The teams just met this past Saturday night in Chicago. The Bulls were 5-1 in their last six games heading into that matchup while the Cavaliers had lost three in a row. The Cavaliers held off the Bulls, 103-102, despite not having Evan Mobley and Darius Garland. Donovan Mitchell had an off-game shooting 5-of-16 from the floor. Yet Cleveland still won. I like the Cavaliers to cover this margin even if they are missing Mobley and Garland again. It's a bonus if either of them plays. Mitchell should shoot a lot better, too. The difference is defense. The Cavaliers are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA holding foes to 106.2 points. The Bulls rank 18th giving up 114.8 points a game. The Cavaliers have been big money-makers at home going 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home contests. |
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01-01-23 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
Green Bay is in must-win mode and playing its best ball, winners of three in a row. I'm not fooled by the Vikings' 12-3 record. They have only outscored their opponents by five points and have a losing point spread mark. The Vikings give up the second-most yards in the NFL and rank last in pass defense. I trust Aaron Rodgers to get this home victory. He'll have both his starting offensive tackles, star left tackle David Bakhtiari and right tackle Yosh Nijman. So Rodgers should have time to throw. The same can't be said for Kirk Cousins. He's been sacked 11 times during the last two games. The Packers have been the fourth-best team in the NFL during the last five weeks behind only the 49ers, Bills and Eagles going by the metric Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures efficiency. |
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01-01-23 | Saints v. Eagles -5.5 | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
The Eagles should polish off the Saints by more than a TD. They don't need Jalen Hurts to do that. Gardner Minshew is one of the better backup QB's in the league and the Eagles own huge edges in the trenches. Philadelphia leads the NFL in scoring at 29.7 points a game. The Eagles have outscored their opponents by 137 points. Only twice in their last seven games, have the Saints managed more than 17 points. Philadelphia leads the NFL in sacks. The Eagles have four players with nine or more sacks. They should overwhelm immobile, over-the-hill Andy Dalton, who is minus a couple of offensive line starters. The Eagles are 6-1 at home. New Orleans is averaging fewer than 11 points a game during its last four road matchups. The Saints have the fewest takeaways in the NFL with 10 while ranking 29th in turning the ball over. The Eagles have 26 takeaways, second-most in the league. |
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01-01-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Falcons | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
The Cardinals are bad. But so are the Falcons, losers of six of their last seven games, including four in a row. David Blough gets the QB start for Arizona. He actually has more experience than Desmond Ridder, who has yet to throw a TD pass in two starts. Blough isn't as bad as Trace McSorley. The Cardinals nearly beat the Buccaneers last week with McSorley under center falling, 19-16, in overtime. The Cardinals underachieved this season and were hurt by a season-ending injury to Kyler Murray. But they have more talented players than Atlanta and should provide a strong effort for retiring J.J. Watt and Kliff Kingsbury, who is trying to hold on to his coaching job. |
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12-30-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Kings | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
It's not just the playoffs. There is plenty of zig and zag to the regular season, too. I see that playing out in this matchup where the Jazz are in stop-the-pain mode while the Kings are fat and happy after beating the Nuggets, the top team in the Western Conference, at home this past Wednesday. The Kings nipped the Nuggets, 127-126, scoring the winning point with less than a second left. The Jazz are 0-2 on their current road trip, which concludes with this game. Utah entered this road trip going 4-2 with its only losses during this span coming on the road to the Bucks and Cavaliers. However, Utah then was upset by the Spurs and Warriors two days ago. The Jazz blew a double-digit lead to the Warriors by scoring just 13 points in the fourth quarter. The Warriors were minus Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. The Jazz should be motivated and ready for this matchup not wanting to go 0-3 on this road trip. They have covered during their last four visits to Sacramento and also are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus the Kings. |
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12-30-22 | Wyoming +2.5 v. Ohio | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
I see the wrong team being favored here. Both teams are off bad losses in their last game. But there's a difference. Ohio lost 17-7 to Toledo in the Mid-American Conference championship game. The Bobcats displayed a lack of offense minus Kurtis Rourke, their star quarterback. They could manage only seven points and 262 yards in the MAC title game without Rourke, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year and easily Ohio's most important player. Wyoming let up after clinching a bowl spot losing its last two games to Boise State by three points and getting blown out by Fresno State in its last game. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Cowboys, who have won their last three bowl games and are well-coached under Craig Bohl. The Cowboys beat Kent State, another MAC school, in their bowl game last season, 52-38. Ohio is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. Wyoming has the superior defense giving up 23.4 points a game. Ohio gives up 28.4 points. The Bobcats rank 113th in total defense and 130th in pass defense. |
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12-29-22 | Rockets +11.5 v. Mavs | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
So what do the Mavericks and Luka Doncic do for an encore after coming from nine points down with 33 seconds left in regulation to beat the Knicks in overtime with Doncic producing 60 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists? The answer is they don't have an encore. Instead the Mavericks suffer a massive letdown hosting the Rockets, who have the worst record in the Western Conference. It's going to be difficult for the Mavericks to come down from the high of that improbable victory against the Knicks on Tuesday and Doncic's historic night. Prior to that game, teams trailing by nine points with under 35 seconds left were 0-13,884 during the last 20 years, according to research compiled by ESPN Stats and Info. The Mavericks have been terrible as mid-sized-to-big favorites. They are 3-15-1 ATS when laying 5 or more points. They also are 1-8-1 ATS the past 10 times against sub .500 foes. The Rockets are capable of springing upsets. They have defeated the Bucks, Suns and Bulls during their last nine games. Houston shouldn't lack motivation after getting buried by the Celtics in their last games two days ago. Houston has covered in four of its last five visits to Dallas. |
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12-29-22 | Cowboys -12 v. Titans | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
No passing game without Ryan Tannehill. No ground game without Derrick Henry. No chance for the Titans. I'm jumping on board the Titans fade train before this line reaches two touchdowns. The Titans already have ruled out seven starters, including their three best offensive linemen. They could hold out a number of other banged-up players, too, since this game doesn't mean anything to them. The Titans meet the Jaguars next week with the winner of that matchup capturing the AFC South Division. Tennessee has lost five in a row, averaging 15.2 points during this span. Dallas is 5-1 in its last six games still alive to win the NFC East Division. Bolstered by the return of Dak Prescott, the Cowboys are averaging an NFL-best 36 points a game during the last 10 weeks. The Titans rank 31st in pass defense. The Titans have little back-door capability with backup rookie Malik Willis or Joshua Dobbs. The Cowboys have 49 sacks and a plus-12 turnover ratio. |
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12-29-22 | Canadiens v. Panthers -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
It's been a disappointing season for the Panthers, but this is one matchup they've had circled for a long time. The Canadiens had the worst record in the NHL last season and they are bad again this season. But Montreal buried the Panthers, 10-2, at home in the regular-season finale last season. The Panthers haven't forgotten that humiliation. They are well-rested having been idle the last five days for holiday break. The Panthers also expect to get fortified with the return of captain Aleksander Barkov and defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Radko Gudas. Montreal has lost nine of its last 12 games, including falling to the Lightning, 4-1, on the road last night. That dropped the Canadiens' road record to 19-44 in their past 63 away matchups. Florida has defeated Montreal the past five times at home. |
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12-28-22 | Bucks -4 v. Bulls | 113-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row. I see the Bucks ending that losing streak against the Bulls whether they have Khris Middleton back in the lineup or not. The Bucks dominate the Bulls especially in Chicago where they have covered 14 of the last 17 times. The Bulls have lost their last three home games falling to the Rockets by 15, Knicks by 23 and Knicks by eight in overtime. |
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12-28-22 | Florida v. Auburn -5.5 | 58-61 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
I don't trust Florida to step up in class here. The Gators have lost neutral-court games to West Virginia, Xavier and Oklahoma by nine points in their last game eight days ago. The Gators' up-tempo style isn't a good fit against Auburn's stubborn defense. The Tigers rank in the top-15 in defensive efficiency, 3-point defense and blocked shots. The Tigers are 7-0 at home where they've been for the last week after an impressive, 84-61, road win against Washington. |
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12-27-22 | Avalanche v. Coyotes +1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
The Coyotes are not a good team. But they are tough at home, playing at Mullett Arena inside the campus at Arizona State. It's a smaller than normal NHL rink, making it rough on opposing teams especially those playing there for the first time. Such is the case for the Avalanche. Colorado's offense is way down due in large part from injuries. Star scorer Nathan MacKinnon remains sidelined. The Avalanche rank 25th in scoring. The Avalanche would be 1-10 in its last 11 games if laying 1 1/2 goals. Each of their last three victories have come by one goal - two in overtime and the other in a shootout. Arizona is 4-2 in its last six home games with three of those wins occurring versus the Kings, Islanders and Bruins. The Coyotes would be 12-4 in their last 16 games if plus 1 1/2 goals. |
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12-27-22 | Clippers +4.5 v. Raptors | 124-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Expect the Clippers' starters to play much better after their bench rallied them to an overtime victory against the Pistons in Detroit last night. It was an improbable victory for the Clippers. They trailed, 126-112, with 3:34 left when Clippers coach Tyronn Lue pulled his starters. But the Clippers' second-unit rallied them, bailing out the starters. The Clippers didn't have Kawhi Leonard in that game. Leonard is expected to play here. That should make a big difference, too. The Raptors could have some holiday rust on them. They completed a tough, three-game road trip by defeating the Cavaliers, 118-107, this past Friday. The Raptors had halted the Knicks' eight-game win streak in their previous game. Toronto has been idle the past three days. Toronto has failed to cover in four of its last five home games. |
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12-27-22 | Jacksonville +8.5 v. Notre Dame | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
Notre Dame has failed to cover its last five games. I see the Irish being overvalued again in this matchup. The Irish rely on their 3-point shooting. They rank 23rd in the nation in 3-point percentage. But Jacksonville can frustrate Notre Dame with its defense. The Dolphins give up the 13th-fewest points in the nation at 58.9 and rank 27th in 3-point defense. Notre Dame has a far bigger game on deck than this non-conference matchup against an Atlantic Sun Conference opponent taking on No. 14 and ACC leader Miami on Friday. The Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS when meeting an above .500 foe. |
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12-27-22 | East Carolina -7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 53-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
When last spotted, Coastal Carolina was losing 45-26 to Troy in the Sun Belt Conference title game. The Chanticleers were hammered by James Madison, 47-7, in their previous game before losing to Troy. That put Coastal Carolina's ATS record to 2-8 against opponents with a winning record. Coastal Carolina will have an interim coach, too, for this game. Its head coach, Jamey Chadwell, left Coastal Carolina on Dec. 4 to become head coach at Liberty. The Chanticleers also will be without its best offensive lineman, Willie Lampkin, and top pass rusher, Josiah Stewart. East Carolina played a tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and has a more explosive offense behind five-year veteran Horton Ahlers. The Pirates rank 24th in total yards. They've committed only two turnovers! Coastal Carolina ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 30.1 points, which is what East Carolina averages per game. The Chanticleers are 124th in pass defense. The Pirates are 13-5-1 ATS against above .500 teams. They have the more stable coaching staff, too, under Mike Houston. |
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12-26-22 | Clippers -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 142-131 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
I don't see Kwahi Leonard and Paul George allowing the Clippers to lose to the Pistons. LA was on a 5-1 SU and ATS run until its last game - a 119-114 loss to the hot 76ers on the road. The Clippers blew a 20-point lead. Now the Clippers are stepping way down in class. Detroit has the worst record in the NBA. The Pistons have lost five in a row. The Pistons have lost by six or more points in 13 of their last 14 losses. The Clippers should maintain their full intensity after blowing a 20-point lead in their last game. The Clippers are 11-4 ATS the past 15 times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. The Clippers rank No. 3 on defense. They give up 10 points fewer per game than the Pistons, who rank 29th defensively. |
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12-25-22 | Broncos -2.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
The collapse of the Rams from Super Bowl champions to one of the worst teams in football is complete. They are the Rams in name only. There's really nothing Sean McVay can do with such limited weaponry and a mediocre defense that is without Aaron Donald. Russell Wilson had his best performance of the season when he last played two weeks ago throwing for three TD's and 247 yards in a 34-28 loss to the Chiefs. Wilson rates a strong edge on Baker Mayfield and a Rams attack that ranks 30th in rushing, has backup wide receivers and has gone through 12 different offensive line combinations with scrubs manning all the spots. Denver has one of the best defenses in the league ranking No. 3 in total yards and scoring defense. The Rams managed only 156 yards last Monday against a Packers defense that isn't nearly as good as Denver's. The Rams have also become mediocre on defense giving up 24 or more points in five of their last six games. |
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12-24-22 | Seahawks +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 5 m | Show |
No Tyler Lockett, but the Seahawks still have enough firepower to compete against the high-powered Chiefs with Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, DK. Metcalf, Noah Fant and Marquise Goodwin. The Seahawks were averaging 28.3 points in their last three games before having to face the 49ers' top-ranked defense. The Seahawks are in must-win, desperation mode after going 1-4 in their last five games. None of Seattle's last six losses, though, have been by more than eight points. The Chiefs win, but don't cover spreads. Since Week 2, they are 10-3, but just 2-10-1 ATS. Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times laying more than seven points. Pete Carroll has done one of his best coaching jobs. The Seahawks are on a mini-bye having last played Thursday. I expect Carroll to have a good game plan. The extra rest certainly can't hurt either. |
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12-24-22 | Bills v. Bears +9 | 35-13 | Loss | -120 | 37 h 56 m | Show | |
The Bills are going to have to deal with Justin Fields in a real flat spot for them. Buffalo just accomplished what it set out to do during the previous three games - win division games against the Patriots, Jets and Dolphins. So motivation becomes an issue for Buffalo. The Bills are a pass-happy team. The weather won't be in their favor. Sustained winds up to 35 mph are in the forecast. There could be snow, too, with temperatures around 10 degrees. Thanks to Fields, the Bears lead the NFL in rushing. They are expected to get back Khalil Herbert, one of the more underrated running backs in the league. Fields has accounted for 20 touchdowns in his last nine games. His moves outside of the pocket can't be defended. The Bears' defense has been playing hard and has gotten healthier in the secondary. Since Week 2, the Bears have lost by more than nine points only twice. Turnovers could be a key here. The Bears have turned the ball over nine fewer times than Buffalo. |
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12-24-22 | Saints v. Browns -3 | 17-10 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 55 m | Show | |
Nick Chubb, Myles Garrett and the Cleveland weather will be too much for the warm-weathered Saints. It's going to be bitter cold with the wind chill factor going below zero. That's not suitable for the Saints, who play on carpet inside their temperature-controlled dome. The Browns should control the trenches. The highly reliable Chubb should be featured. The Saints have permitted at least 148 yards rushing in four of their last six games. They just allowed the Falcons to produce 231 yards on the ground against them. Deshaun Watson should have less rust making his fourth start of the season while having a better grasp of Cleveland's offense. The Saints have a key offensive line injury with guard Cesar Ruiz out. They also will be minus their top wideout, Chris Olave. I see the Browns controlling both lines of scrimmage and thus the game. |
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12-24-22 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 55 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by the Vikings' 11-3 record. They have outscored their opponents by just two points and have a losing point spread mark. The Vikings are fat and happy having already won their NFC North Division after coming from 33 points down to beat the Colts in overtime last week. Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell has already said his priority is having a healthy team ready for the playoffs. The Giants have more urgency. They are off a key, confidence-regaining road win against the Commanders to put them in the playoff hunt. Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley can produce enough numbers against a Vikings' defense that ranks last in total yards and 28th in scoring defense to keep the Giants firmly in this game if not pull the outright upset. |