Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-09-22 | Bucks -6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 136-132 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
I anticipated Giannis Antetokounmpo to play. He was listed as probable. However, word has come that he won't play because his knee still is too sore. So I have to lower my recommendation. The Bucks have the best record in the NBA at 9-1 SU (8-2 ATS), but are coming off their first loss, 117-98, to the Hawks on the road this past Monday. So the Bucks should be highly motivated despite playing a lottery-caliber opponent and without Giannis. Milwaukee has covered 10 of its last 14 road games going back to last season. The Thunder have lost and failed to cover in their last three games, losing every game by at least nine points. One of these defeats during this span occurred to the Bucks, 108-94, at Milwaukee this past Saturday. The Bucks led by 24 points in the second half. Milwaukee shouldn't let up this time around. The Bucks won that game without Antetokounmpo. Oklahoma City is heavily reliant on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for its scoring. He is averaging 30.8 points. No other Oklahoma City player even averages more than 12 points. The Bucks held Gilgeous-Alexander to a season-low 18 points. The Bucks have the NBA' top defensive rating at 101.9.
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11-09-22 | Davidson v. Wright State +4.5 | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
I have Wright State as a home favorite in my power ratings. So I'm happy to get involved in this matchup taking this many points. Davidson beat Guilford, 87-64, in its season opener. But that's not impressive. The Wildcats reached the NCAA Tournament last season, but aren't that good on the road. Wright State came on strong last season to also reach the NCAA Tournament by winning the Horizon League Tournament. The oddsmaker sees that the Raiders lost their two top scorers from last season, but they still have several excellent players and added several good recruits along with transfer guard Amari Davis, who averaged 17.2 points a game for Wisconsin-Green Bay two seasons ago. I envision Wright State being better than last season, something the oddsmaker doesn't see right now judging by this line.
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11-09-22 | Buffalo +2.5 v. Central Michigan | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
After opening with three straight losses, Buffalo is very much in the bowl picture after going 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games. The Bulls have produced 34 or more points in three of their last four games. Buffalo QB Cole Snyder should have a big game against a Central Michigan secondary that ranks 79th in pass defense. The Chippewas give up 29 points per game, which ranks 87th. Central Michigan has failed to score more than 18 points in four of its last six games. The Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. The Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games. |
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11-08-22 | Georgia Southern v. San Jose State -3 | 48-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Pro prospect Omari Moore is back for San Jose State. That makes the Spartans respectable. The combination of Moore and the Spartans' size advantage along with home-court should enable San Jose State to cover this number. Georgia Southern has regressed under third-year coach Brian Burg. The Eagles have won just 13 games during each of the last two seasons. They were 5-11 in the Sun Belt Conference last season. San Jose State had a dismal conference record, too, last season. But the Spartans play in the stronger Mountain West Conference. They will be better this season. |
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11-08-22 | Ball State v. Toledo -11 | 21-28 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by Ball State going 4-1 in its last five games. The Cardinals have faced not only weak competition during this span, but also caught opponents missing key injured players. When stepping up, the Cardinals have failed to cover the last five times against above .500 opponents. Toledo is 6-3 and several steps up in class for Ball State. The Rockets have tremendous skill position talent. They are averaging 35.9 points, which is a top-25 figure. That average goes up to 45.5 points per game in four home matchups. Ball State doesn't have the offense to keep pace ranking 90th in scoring at 24.8 points per game. The Cardinals are below average on defense, too. |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
The buy sign is on for the Monday night home underdog Saints following their best game of the season, a 24-0 home win against the Raiders last Sunday. The Saints held the sometimes potent Raiders to 183 yards of offense. A key for the Saints is an improved ground attack spearheaded by Alvin Kamara that is averaging 171 yards rushing in their last four games. The Ravens have been favored in three of their last four games and failed to cover each of those times. Baltimore shored up its defense trading for Roquan Smith. However, the Ravens are down their two best receivers with tight end Mark Andrews and wideout Rashod Bateman both out. It' not likely Gus Edwards is going to play either. |
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11-07-22 | Lehigh +19.5 v. Syracuse | 72-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
Jim Boeheim remains the coach, but Syracuse isn't the power of years past. The Orange won 13 games last season, same as Lehigh. Lehigh is a steady team that has won double-digit games in 19 of the last 20 seasons. The Mountain Hawks return their best player, Evan Taylor. Syracuse lost nine players from last season, including three of its top four scorers. The Orange weren't that good last season and they have some adjustments to make. This is too many points for them to lay against a respectable Patriot League team.
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11-07-22 | Dartmouth v. Fordham -6 | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
I look at Fordham as a potential sleeper team in the Atlantic 10 now that things have settled down for the Rams. The Rams play good defense and recruited talented freshmen. I find the Rams undervalued hosting Ivy League opponent Dartmouth. The Big Green went just 4-11 on the road last season while the Rams were 10-4 at home last season. Sports Illustrated ranks Fordham 190th in the country and Dartmouth 193 spots lower than the Rams. Dartmouth was picked seventh out of the eight Ivy League teams in the preseason Ivy League poll.
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11-07-22 | Kent State +1.5 v. Northern Kentucky | 79-57 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
I am very high on Kent State as a very strong mid-major and the best team in the Mid-American Conference. I don't think the Golden Flashes should be a 'dog to Northern Kentucky.
The Golden Flashes won 14 in a row down the stretch last season before falling to Akron in the MAC Tournament title game. Kent State returns 10 players from last season, including MAC Player of the Year Sincere Carry and Malique Jacobs, one of the top defensive players in the conference. |
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11-06-22 | Titans v. Chiefs -12 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm going to lay this dead number anticipating Ryan Tannehill will be back this week. Even if Tannehill is under center, I don't see the Titans staying within two touchdowns of the Chiefs. It's a huge bonus if Malik Willis has to start a second straight game because he's nowhere near being ready as an NFL starting quarterback. The Titans were able to get away with Willis last week because they could totally rely on Derrick Henry against the Texans, who have the worst run defense by far in the NFL. Kansas City has the No. 3 rush defense in the NFL. The Chiefs will be loading the box to stop Henry. The Chiefs have had two weeks to prepare having been idle last week. No coach is better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 19-3 during the regular season after being off the week before. The Chiefs won't lack incentive. The Titans embarrassed them, 27-3, in Tennessee last year. The Titans don't have the makeup to play from behind because their wide receiving group is so weak. |
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11-06-22 | Panthers v. Bengals -7 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 91 h 32 m | Show |
This is a buy low opportunity on the Bengals, who looked terrible this past Monday night scoring just 13 points against the Browns and losing by 19 points. The Bengals don't have Ja'Marr Chase. The Panthers don't have Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. They also don't have a lot of incentive either with a 2-6 record and in rebuild mode. Cincinnati buried the Falcons, 35-17, two weeks ago. The Panthers lost to the Falcons this past Sunday ending any crazy dream for them of competing in their bogus NFC South Division. Joe Burrow doesn't need Chase to bury the Panthers. Burrow has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, leads the NFL in passing yards and has 17 TD passes. He still has three high quality receiving targets in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst. Carolina's pop gun attack operated by P.J. Walker isn't going to be able to keep up. The Bengals want to redeem themselves after Monday's embarrassment. This is a kill spot for them at home. The line is reasonable enough to get involved. |
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11-06-22 | Packers -3.5 v. Lions | 9-15 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 41 m | Show | |
The Packers aren't finished yet. Lose here to the 1-6 Lions, though, and they are done. I don't see it happening. Aaron Rodgers gets to face the worst defense in the league. The Lions give up the most points and yards per game. Green Bay's defense is capable of playing far better, especially against the run. The Lions hoisted up the white flag when they dealt away tight end T.J. Hockenson. Their best skill position player, D'Andre Swift, isn't physically right slowed by an ankle injury. Dan Campbell is a likely lame duck coach. He's compounded his team's serious defensive woes with terrible on-field coaching decisions. He could be the worst in-game coach in the NFC. |
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11-05-22 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern +4 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 6 m | Show | |
South Alabama has played one of the 10 easiest schedules in the country. That's going to catch up to the Jaguars in this matchup. I wasn't a fan of Clay Helton when he was at USC. But he's done a fine job with Georgia Southern. The Eagles are 5-3 with all three of their losses coming on the road. They are 3-0 SU and ATS at home. One of those Georgia Southern victories was 45-38 against James Madison as a 13-point 'dog. The Eagles produced nearly 600 yards of total offense in that game. Georgia Southern is averaging 36.9 points and ranks 11th in total yards. South Alabama has impressive defensive numbers. But those are skewed because of numerous weak offenses the Jaguars have faced. Besides home field, the Eagles also have another scheduling factor in their favor - they were idle last week. Georgia Southern has a strong history against the Jaguars winning and covering the last four times it hosted them. The Eagles have won seven of their past eight games against the Jaguars. |
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11-05-22 | Texas Tech v. TCU -9.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 25 m | Show |
TCU is the third-highest scoring team in the nation and fourth in total yards. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every one of their games going 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. Texas Tech is 89th in scoring defense giving up 29.3 points a game. I don't see the Red Raiders, who have been horrible on the road, staying within single digits of the unbeaten Horned Frogs. Texas Tech just got slaughtered, 45-17, by Baylor last week and that was at home. The Red Raiders have played three road games - North Carolina State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They lost all three of those contests by 10 or more points. Max Duggan is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation accounting for 26 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Texas Tech couldn't stop Baylor, which averages nearly a touchdown less per game than TCU. I don't see the Red Raiders slowing down Duggan and a TCU attack that averages 48.7 points a game at home. |
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11-04-22 | Cavs v. Pistons +6.5 | 112-88 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Almost always disrespected, the Pistons have been a strong money-maker covering 23 of their last 34 games going back to last season for 68 percent. This spot sets up well for Detroit to cover again hosting the Cavaliers. Cleveland is off a dramatic 114-113 home overtime win against the Celtics from Wednesday. Following this game, the Cavaliers head to the West Coast for four games. So this not only is a flat sport for the Cavaliers but their concentration and focus could be off, too. The Pistons are battle-tested having just played two games against the Bucks, the lone unbeaten team in the NBA, nearly winning one of the games. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is 7-1. That's the best record in the Sun Belt Conference. But the Chanticleers aren't even favored at home here against Appalachian State. Did the oddsmaker make a mistake with a wrong favorite? Nope. Appalachian State is better than Coastal Carolina on both sides of the ball. Coastal Carolina has built its record feasting on easy opponents. This is the first time all season the Chanticleers are underdogs. They were upset by Old Dominion, 49-21, when they last played at home. What does that tell you? The Mountaineers rank in the top-25 in scoring offense and total offense. Senior quarterback Chase Brice has accounted for 25 TD's with four interceptions. The Mountaineers have three good running backs headed by Camerun Peoples. It's a red flag for the Chanticleers that they were gouged for 323 yards and four TD's on the ground by Old Dominion. The Chanticleers are even worse in pass defense ranking 116th. Coastal Carolina has good skill position players, but they aren't as good as Appalachian State's top weapons. The Chanticleers aren't as battle tested either as Appalachian State. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover any of its past four home games. The oddsmaker has it right. The Mountaineers are the superior team and they will prove it here. |
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11-02-22 | Pelicans v. Lakers +3.5 | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
How can a team with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook be that bad at 1-5? Answer: The Lakers aren't that bad. Their early shooting has been off. LA ranks 29th in field goal percentage and last in 3-point accuracy. Now I'm not saying the Lakers are ready to join the elites, but they finally have some confidence and momentum after beating the Nuggets, 121-110, at home this past Sunday. The Lakers have had ample time to prepare and be ready to host the Pelicans. Playing the Pelicans always is a big deal for Davis. He played seven seasons for New Orleans. The Pelicans aren't expected to have Brandon Ingram, their second-best player. I don't believe the Lakers should be home underdogs here. |
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10-31-22 | Grizzlies -3 v. Jazz | 105-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
So much for the Jazz playing the lottery game. Utah may be the biggest surprise in the NBA going 5-2. One of those victories came this past Saturday when the Jazz nipped the Grizzlies, 124-123. Memphis blew a four-point lead with less than two minutes left. The Grizzlies also were minus their superstar guard, Ja Morant, who had a non-COVID-19 illness. He's questionable for today's game. But even if Morant sits out again, I still like the superior Grizzlies in this short revenge spot. The Grizzlies are a deep team. They can beat many teams without Morant, including the Jazz. Desmond Bane is an emerging star and backup point guard Tyus Jones is underrated. The Jazz put forth a great effort and deserved to beat Memphis two days ago. Now it's the Grizzlies' turn to go all out. |
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10-31-22 | Bengals -3 v. Browns | Top | 13-32 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
I don't know why there is so much respect for the Browns in this matchup. They are not a good team. I'm not buying into the home division 'dog on Monday night, nor the Ja'Marr Chase injury as reasons not to back the Bengals. Yes, Chase is a top-five receiver. But the Bengals are deep at wide receiver and the Browns have it worse in the injury department. Out for Cleveland is its top cornerback Denzel Ward, elite guard Wyatt Teller and emerging tight end David Njoku, who had become QB Jacoby Brissett's favorite target. The Bengals' offensive line has gotten better. Joe Burrow has taken advantage of that to throw for 1,560 yards with 12 touchdowns and just one interception during Cincinnati's last five games. The Bengals have won four of those contests. Cleveland, by contrast, has lost four in a row. Brissett is a career backup. Cleveland relies on Nick Chubb and an excellent ground attack. That's needed to make up for an anemic downfield passing attack. The Bengals are the more balanced team with Joe Mixon on the ground and Burrow still having two excellent wide receiving targets, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Cincinnati has covered eight of its past nine road games. The Bengals also have covered seven of the past eight times when playing in Cleveland. |
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10-30-22 | Cardinals +4 v. Vikings | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 6 m | Show | |
Expect a close game here. That's usually the case with Minnesota. Of the Vikings' last 12 victories, 10 have been one possession results. Minnesota's 5-1 record comes with warts. The Vikings are 2-4 ATS, including 0-3 when laying more than a field goal. They have outscored their foes by just 21 points. The Cardinals have the speed to take advantage of the Vikings' slow cornerbacks. Minnesota ranks 27th in total defense and 28th in pass defense. |
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10-29-22 | San Diego State +9 v. Fresno State | Top | 28-32 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
Fresno State star QB Jake Haener still could be out. That would mean another start for Logan Fife, who has been picked off six times filling in for Haener. But even if Haener can play, he's going to be rusty having last played Sept. 17. So I disagree with how high the Bulldogs are favored here. This should be a very close game with first place in the Mountain West Conference West Division at stake. Fresno State is 3-4 on the season, which includes a stunning road loss to Connecticut. The Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home contests. San Diego State is 26-10-1 (72 percent) versus below .500 opponents. The Aztecs have held three of their last four foes to 14 points or fewer. San Diego State has the superior special teams play, too, with an excellent kicker/punter in Jack Browning. ESPN ranks the Aztecs No. 1 in special teams efficiency. |
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10-29-22 | Michigan State +23 v. Michigan | 7-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
Michigan is a real power this season. The Wolverines have sights set on bigger things such as winning the national championship. Michigan State has more modest goals. This is the Spartans' Super Bowl. Michigan State gets sky high for this in-state, Big Ten rivalry matchup far more than Michigan does. It's not a coincidence the Spartans have covered in 12 of the last 14 meetings, including winning straight-up each of the past two years. The Spartans are a disappointing 3-4, but they regained some lost confidence by defeating Wisconsin in their last game. Michigan State QB Payton Thorne had his most efficient game of the season in that victory. |
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10-29-22 | Warriors v. Hornets +10.5 | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
A 113-93 road loss to the previously winless Magic on Friday certainly looks bad for the Hornets. So it's easy to understand why the defending world champion Warriors are double-digit road favorites against Charlotte. But beating the NBA is about going against the grain. The Hornets are a feisty, underrated group. Steve Clifford should have a motivated bunch here after Friday's embarrassment. It's just the Hornets' second home game of the season. Charlotte is capable of hanging in. The Hornets own blowout road victories against the Hawks and Spurs. They also nearly upset the Knicks on the road before losing in overtime. All three of those teams are above .500. The Warriors just played games against the Suns and Heat. They play again Sunday against the Pistons. Steve Kerr is experimenting with his rotation. This game is more festive with Stephen Curry returning to Charlotte than it is intense for Golden State. Here's an interesting quote from Kerr, ''We always have to have the big picture in mind and pace our guys through the regular season,'' he said. Look for the Hornets to keep this one in the single-digit range. |
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10-29-22 | Rutgers +14.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Greg Schiano has done an outstanding job with Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a winning record through seven games for the first time in eight years and are a bowl contender. The Scarlet Knights have been at their point spread-best on the road going 31-14, including 10-3-1 during their last 14 away games. Minnesota has gotten progressively worse after a 4-0 start. The Gophers have lost and failed to cover in their last three games, losing all three by 10 or more points. The problem for Minnesota is scoring. The Gophers are averaging fewer than 14 points during their last three games. Tanner Morgan is one of the worst QB's in the Big Ten and he's questionable with a concussion. The Gophers rely on a strong ground attack headed by Mohamed Ibrahim. Rutgers, however, ranks sixth against the run and eighth in defensive total yards. The Scarlet Knights also are tough on special teams, too, leading the Big Ten in blocked kicks with four. |
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10-28-22 | Knicks v. Bucks -6 | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
Not only are the Bucks the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA, but right now they are the best team in the league with the premier player in Giannis Antetokounmpo. The 3-0 Bucks, the league's lone unbeaten team, ranks first in scoring defense and defensive shooting percentage. Antetokounmpo entered Thursday leading the NBA in scoring at 36 points per game. The Knicks are 3-1. However, their victories were against the 1-4 Pistons, the 0-5 Magic and against the shorthanded Hornets in overtime when Charlotte was minus injured LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier and Cody Martin. Now the Knicks are stepping way up in class and they're on the road. New York has lost its last three games to the Bucks by an average of 14 points. The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last dozen meetings versus the Knicks. |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Very tough scheduling spot for East Carolina here. The Pirates just upset American Athletic Conference rival Central Florida this past Saturday - their best win of the season - and now have to travel cross-country going into high altitude to Provo, Utah on a short week to take on BYU in a non-conference game. The Pirates are going to encounter an angry BYU squad that has lost three in a row, falling to Liberty, Arkansas and Notre Dame after a 4-1 start. This is a huge game for the independent Cougars, who would hurt their bowl opportunities with a loss here. East Carolina has a much bigger matchup in its next game facing Cincinnati, who is unbeaten in the AAC. BYU and East Carolina share a common opponent, South Florida. The Cougars smashed the Bulls, 50-21. BYU led 38-0 in the second quarter while outgaining South Florida, 575-279. East Carolina beat South Florida, 48-28, at neutral site Boca Raton due Hurricane Ian and gave up 455 yards to the Bulls. |
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10-27-22 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Kings | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies have a strong track record when taking on sub .500 teams covering 19 of the last 26 times in that role for 73 percent. Sacramento is 0-3 under new coach Mike Brown. The Kings went 0-3 against Memphis last season with their average loss being by 23.7 points. The Grizzlies are riding a six-game win streak against the Kings. The Grizzlies are several rungs higher than the Kings, but don't generate much respect in the marketplace. They have an emerging star in Desmond Bane to go with Ja Morant, who is No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 35.3 points. |
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10-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
The Bucks are serious championship contenders with Giannis Antetokounmpo arguably the best player in the league. The Nets are not a good team right now. They rank last in 3-point defense and 28th in defensive scoring and defensive field goal percentage. Ben Simmons has yet to fit in. Given all this plus the Bucks being rested and ready having last played on Saturday, I am confident laying this shorter-than-expected number with Milwaukee. Antetokounmpo has a strong history against the Nets with a career average of nearly 25 points per game. The 1-2 Nets haven't looked good. They lost at home by 22 points to the Pelicans, beat the Raptors by four at home and then lost by 10 to the Grizzlies on the road despite strong performances from Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who combined to make 28 of 44 shots (64 percent) from the floor. Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS following a loss going back to last season. |
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10-24-22 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Blazers | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Portland is sitting fat and happy at 3-0 after coming from seven points down with under two minutes to play to defeat the Lakers, 106-104, on the road Sunday. Now the Trail Blazers return to Portland where they'll find the Nuggets waiting for them. Denver was stunned by the surprising 3-0 Jazz in its opener. Since then, the Nuggets have gotten straight upsetting the Warriors on the road and dispatching the Thunder at home this past Saturday. Damian Lillard is off to a great start, but the Nuggets have more star power than Portland with Nikola Jokic, a healthy Jamal Murray and emerging Michael Porter. Denver is the superior team and has matched up well to Portland beating the Trail Blazers in seven of the past nine meetings, including going 3-1 last season. The Nuggets have covered five of the past six in the series. |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 10 m | Show |
Bill Belichick has faced many difficult challenges in his 23 years as head coach of the Patriots. Devising a defensive game plan to stop Justin Fields is not one of them. The Bears have the worst passing offense in the NFL. Fields is more dangerous as a runner than a passer. He hangs on to the ball way too long. That's one reason why he has been sacked once in every five passing attempts. That's how bad it is. Chicago needs to run the ball well to have a chance. That doesn't figure to happen. The Patriots are extremely well-coached defensively. They just held Nick Chubb to a season-low 56 yards on the ground and the Browns to more than 100 yards below their rushing average last week. The Bears don't have a runner near the caliber of Chubb. The Patriots are likely to get back starting QB Mac Jones along with Damien Harris. The run-oriented Patriots should grind down the Bears, who rank 29th in run defense. |
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10-23-22 | Bucs -10 v. Panthers | Top | 3-21 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 23 m | Show |
The dysfunctional Panthers draw Tampa Bay at a bad time. Todd Bowles just ripped his Buccaneers after they were upset, 20-18, by the Steelers this past Sunday. So zero chance of the Buccaneers taking the Panthers lightly. An elite Tampa Bay defense should have little trouble stopping a Panthers attack that doesn't have a legitimate starting NFL-caliber quarterback. Take away three defensive touchdowns and the Panthers would be averaging 13.6 points per game, which would be the lowest in the league. Carolina's money-burning ways have continued from last season. The Panthers are 1-13 SU and ATS in their last 14 games. They have lost their last three games all by double-digits. This is an easy get-right game for the Buccaneers. (Note that I released this game early in the week before the Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey. So the line has gone up. I still like the Buccaneers to absolutely bury the Panthers by more than two touchdowns so while much of the line value is gone the handicap still holds up.) |
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10-22-22 | Cincinnati -3 v. SMU | 29-27 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
I see a class difference here much bigger than the point spread. Cincinnati has won the past two AAC titles. The Bearcats have won five in a row and are fresh after being idle last week. SMU has failed to cover in its last five games. The Mustangs surrender nearly 30 points a game and rank 122nd in run defense. Cincinnati averages 38.2 points a game. SMU's strength is its passing attack. The Bearcats have a top-20 pass defense. Cincinnati gives up 4.3 yards per play compared to the Mustangs allowing 6.2 yards per play. The Bearcats have defeated the Mustangs by 29 points and 34 points during the last two seasons. The gap isn't that large this season, but it's still substantial enough for the Bearcats to easily cover the spread. |
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10-21-22 | Pistons +7.5 v. Knicks | 106-130 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Pistons often are undervalued. That was the case last season when they finished with the eighth-best ATS mark in the NBA. It's the case again in their game today against the Knicks. New York finished eight games below .500 last season, missing the playoffs for the eighth time in nine years. The Knicks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 home games, while the Pistons are a sparkling 11-1 ATS during their past dozen road games. The Knicks shouldn't be laying this many points. |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
Seems hard to believe after suffering three blowout losses, but Georgia Tech can put itself into bowl consideration. The Yellow Jackets have turned their season around after firing Geoff Collins. They are 2-0 since Brent Key was named interim coach, upsetting Pittsburgh as a 21 1/2-point road 'dog and Duke as a 3 1/2-point home dog. It's not a coincidence. Key has fixed special teams issues and changed morale. The Yellow Jackets have their confidence up after winning consecutive games for the first time since 2018 when Paul Johnson was coach. I expect Georgia Tech to keep its momentum hosting Virginia, which is the only winless team in the ACC having lost all three of its conference games. The Cavaliers are struggling under first-year head coach Tony Elliott. The Cavaliers haven't scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent. Brennan Armstrong is a decent QB, but he doesn't have much skill position help and he's playing behind a rebuilt offensive line. "We are still a team that needs a lot of work fundamentally,'' Elliott was quoted as saying. That kind of quote is not very confidence-inspiring especially coming six games into Virginia's season. |
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10-19-22 | Nuggets -7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
The class difference between these two teams is much wider than this point spread. The Nuggets are serious championship contenders. They also are healthy, something they rarely were last season. The Jazz are serious contenders, too, - for the first overall draft pick. Gone is coach Quin Snyder. Also departed are Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic. The Jazz are in full rebuild mode. Utah didn't look good during preseason. The team has huge holes. The Nuggets want to start fast so they'll be out for a lopsided victory here. |
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10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics -2 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 42 h 44 m | Show |
The market is down on the Celtics because of the season suspension of coach Ime Udoka and injuries to Robert Williams III and Danilo Gallinari. What's being overlooked is the Celtics still have their All-Star wings in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, a shored-up backcourt with the addition of underrated all-around player Malcolm Brogdon and upper-tier role players Grant Williams, Derrick White, Al Horford and Marcus Smart. Joe Mazzulla, Boston's new head coach, has minimal head coaching experience but will be helped and guided by Brad Stevens. The Celtics finished 28-7 last season. They outscored their opponents by 14.8 points per 100 possessions during their last 32 games. The 76ers finished last season 3-12-1 ATS on the road. Short price to lay with the superior team especially at home. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
Given the quality of Denver's defense and injuries to several of their own key players, including top pass rusher Joey Bosa and wide receiver Keenan Allen, I believe the Chargers are priced too high so I'll be on the underdog Broncos. Denver entered Week 6 allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt, second-fewest TD passes and had the fifth-most sacks. Russell Wilson no longer is his prime. But he still knows how to win and is capable of playing much better as he makes the transition from Seattle to Denver. He faces a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in scoring defense giving up 27.2 points a game and 6.2 yards per run. Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone are solid enough backs to take advantage of the Chargers' weak run defense, which in turn sets up Wilson to effectively pick his spots. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys +5 v. Eagles | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting Dak Prescott to play in this game. But that shouldn't matter. The Cowboys can upset the Eagles straight-up based on their tremendous defense, the Eagles being banged-up on their offensive line and the quiet efficiency of Cooper Rush. Dan Quinn would be my candidate as the top defensive coordinator in the NFL this season. Dallas has held each of its first five opponents to fewer than 20 points. The Cowboys have held their last four opponents - Bengals, Giants, Commanders and Rams - to an average of 13.2 points. The Cowboys have the second-most sacks in the league. The Eagles could be down three offensive line starters due to injuries. Micah Parsons is becoming a dominant defensive force. I think Jalen Hurts is a better fantasy quarterback than real one. Let's see how he fares against an elite defense behind a beat-up offensive line. I question his downfield accuracy. Rush isn't fancy. He can't run like Hurts. All Rush does is win. The Cowboys are 4-0 SU and ATS in Rush's starts because he smartly plays within himself knowing he has skill position talent around with CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, the most elusive of any of the Cowboys. The Cowboys have won and covered during their past three games against the Eagles. They beat the Eagles by a combined margin of 45 points in the two games last season. Dallas also has covered in 10 of its past 11 road games. |
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10-16-22 | Jets v. Packers -7 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 5 m | Show |
Rejoice time stops here for the Jets. While New York was celebrating beating the Dolphins and their third-string rookie quarterback this past Sunday, the Packers were on their way home from London in humbling fashion after blowing a double-digit lead against the inferior Giants. Aaron Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder the size of his ego. I like Rodgers that way. The Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS following a loss with all but one of those victories coming by at least 10 points. How did Rodgers fare in these nine games? Try a 24-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Jets are fat and happy having stopped a 12-game division losing streak. They are 3-2 with a miracle win against the less-than-bright Browns, another come from behind victory against the 1-4 Steelers and receiving an early Christmas gift of drawing an unprepared and ill-equipped Skylar Thompson when Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out early in the Dolphins game. Yeah the Jets are improved. They have some promising young players. But don't get carried away. The underachieving Packers are still at least two - if not three - levels higher than the Jets and are playing at home in circle-the-wagons mode. Green Bay is 15-0 SU, 11-4 ATS during its last 15 home games. Matchup-wise, the Packers can run on the Jets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. If the Jets load the box - which I expect them to do - Rodgers has enough reliable pass catching targets and MVP ability left to burn the Jets. Green Bay is healthy on defense. They have the pass rushers with Rashaun Gary, Kenny Clark and Preston Smith to take advantage of the Jets' vulnerable offensive tackle situation, which is a fourth-string option at left tackle and a second-stringer at right tackle. Zach Wilson has yet to impress me. He's made 15 NFL starts. He's committed 14 turnovers and been sacked 47 times. I don't expect the Packers to be flat, or to be bothered by jet lag. The Saints and Vikings played in London two weeks ago. Both won last week without the benefit of taking their bye week. This is your classic buy low spot on the Packers. |
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10-15-22 | San Jose State v. Fresno State +8 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
Man a lot can change in a year. Fresno State rolled past San Jose State, 40-9, as a 7-point road favorite last season. Now the Bulldogs find themselves more than a touchdown underdog at home to the Spartans. That's what a four-game losing streak can do to a team. The Bulldogs lost their outstanding QB Jake Haener in their third game against USC. The following week the Bulldogs had to travel East and were stunned by Connecticut. That was a bad loss. But Fresno State still has plenty of talent. The Bulldogs should play better here at home. They have been on the road for their last three games. The season has gone well for 4-1 San Jose State. The Spartans have covered four in a row. That's made the Spartans overpriced here, though, in my view. |
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10-15-22 | Winnipeg v. BC | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 78 h 7 m | Show | |
Having clinched the top seed in the Western Conference and home field advantage in the playoffs, Winnipeg has nothing to gain in this game. So, not surprisingly, the Blue Bombers will be sitting out numerous starters, including QB Zach Collaros. BC, however, is battling Calgary for the No. 2 seed in the West and home field advantage in the playoffs. This also is fan appreciation night in British Columbia so the Lions will be far more motivated than the Blue Bombers. |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +16.5 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 10 m | Show | |
Iowa State plays outstanding defense and catches Texas in a sandwich spot. The Longhorns just ended a four-game losing streak to Oklahoma in dominating fashion winning, 49-0. Texas faces unbeaten Oklahoma State next week. Iowa State has a bye next week. So the Cyclones should be going all out. The Cyclones give up the eighth-fewest points in the nation at 13.7. They rank 11th in total defense holding foes to 227.5 yards per game. The Cyclones have been in every game. They are 3-3 with their three defeats coming by an average of 3.6 points. Two of their losses occurred to ranked teams. Look for them to hang in against Texas. |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
The Padres are 32-27 since the start of August even being reinforced with Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader. They aren't at the 111-win elite level of the Dodgers. This is especially the case in this Game 1 matchup where the Dodgers have one of their aces going in Julio Urias, while the Padres are starting Mike Clevinger. Clevinger is not in the class of teammates Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, who shut down the Mets during their wild card series. Clevinger is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA. He made three starts against the Dodgers this season spanning 13 innings. He was 0-2 with a fat 9.69 ERA. By contrast, Urias dominated the Padres going 3-0 in four starts against them with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings. Urias had three of those starts in September going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in them. Career-wise, Urias is 6-1 versus San Diego with a 2.19 ERA in 61 2/3 innings. So I don't see the Padres keeping this one close. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 55 h 29 m | Show | |
After starting slow against the Steelers and Cowboys, the Bengals have gotten back on track rolling past the Jets and Dolphins. The Ravens have yet to get on track. Something isn't right with them. They've blown 21 and 17-point leads at home to the Dolphins and Bills. Baltimore is down to its third-string offensive left tackle and its defense has struggled under new coordinator Mike Macdonald. Cincinnati's offensive line has been sharper in protecting Joe Burrow during the past two weeks. During this span, Burrow has completed 65 percent of his passes with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Bengals own a huge wide receiving edge. The Bengals gained a lot of confidence from whipping the Ravens twice last season, 41-17 and 41-21. The Bengals are on extra rest having played on Thursday during Week 4. They are 6-0 ATS as a road 'dog the past six times and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 AFC games. |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 4 m | Show |
Teddy Bridgewater replacing injured Tua Tagovailoa is the major story. What is being overlooked, though, is the Jets' offensive tackle situation. The Jets are down to their fourth-string left tackle and they lost starting right tackle Max Mitchell to a knee injury this past Sunday. The Dolphins have the pass rushers to take advantage of the cluster injury problem on the Jets' offensive line. Zach Wilson was terrible as a rookie. He didn't look much better against the Steelers last week in his season debut. As for Bridgewater, he's one of the five best backup QB's in the league. His short yardage accuracy fits Miami's offensive system. He has the two best wide receivers on the field in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. The Jets are giving up 25.3 points a game, which ranks 26th. Miami has dominated the Jets winning eight of the past nine meetings while going 7-1-1 ATS. The Dolphins opened with impressive victories against the Patriots, Ravens and Bills before drawing a tough scheduling break by having had to play last Thursday on the road against the desperate Bengals. But now the Dolphins are on extra rest and Bridgewater has ample preparation time.
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -8.5 | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 5 m | Show | |
The Falcons are the last unbeaten point spread team in the NFL. They won't be after Sunday. I envision the Buccaneers putting together their first complete game of the season. If they do, the Falcons won't stand a chance. Tampa Bay held the Cowboys, Saints and Packers to a combined 27 points. That's an average of nine points. The Buccaneers are going to be in an ornery mood after losing, 41-31, at home to the Chiefs. No weather distractions this week for the Buccaneers. Take away Cordarrelle Patterson and the Falcons are the easiest offense the Buccaneers have faced so far. Marcus Mariota is averaging just 10 completed passes during his last two games. The Falcons lack the downfield passing attack to come from behind if a backdoor cover is needed. Kyle Pitts is the Falcons' top weapon - and he's underutilized. Getting healthier on the offensive line and Mike Evans back from suspension was a big boost for Tampa Bay's offense last Sunday. The Buccaneers should be in better shape at wide receiver this week, too, giving Tom Brady more options. The Falcons rank 25th in scoring defense giving up 25.3 points and 25th in total defense allowing 386.3 yards per game. This is the Buccaneers' get-right game. |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints -5 | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
The Saints return home from London in circle-the-wagons mode on a three-game losing streak. Andy Dalton is likely to start again, but Alvin Kamara is back to do the heavy lifting, which should ease Dalton's burden. The Seahawks have the second-worst defense in the league behind only the Lions. Kamara should be in line for a huge game against a Seattle defense yielding 5.4 yards per run and five all-purpose TD's. Geno Smith has played better than expected - so far. Keep in mind that his one superstar performance was against the Lions. The Seahawks were crushed when they stepped up in competition against the 49ers. Their other games were against the Broncos, Falcons and Lions. New Orleans gives up the fifth-lowest completion rate and ranks in the top 10 in fewest yards per pass attempt. I see Smith returning to his game-manger, turnover-prone ways that have marked his career. |
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10-08-22 | Clemson v. Boston College +20.5 | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 54 m | Show | |
Clemson may not be as up as it should be for 1-3 Boston College. The Tigers won a wild double overtime victory against Wake Forest, 51-45, two weeks ago on the road and then took care of North Carolina State at home, 30-20, last week. The Tigers are at Florida State next week. So this looms as a flat spot for them. Boston College and its heralded but disappointing QB, Phil Jurkovec, finally showed something last week upsetting Louisville, 34-33, last week as a 13 1/2-point 'dog. The Eagles produced 454 yards of offense. Boston College has a tremendous history of covering games in October going 16-5 ATS (76%) the past 21 times. Clemson had a tough time at home against Boston College the past two years winning, 19-13, as a 15-point favorite last season and prevailing, 34-28, as a 24-point favorite two years ago. |
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10-07-22 | Colorado State v. Nevada -3.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Nevada is 2-3. But the Wolf Pack aren't nearly as bad as Colorado State, which is 0-4 and has been outscored by 121 points. This is going to be an intense game with Nevada drawing its biggest home crowd of the season. The reason being that Colorado State's head coach is Jay Norvell. He's in his first year after coaching Nevada the previous five seasons. Many of Nevada's players were recruited by Norvell, who left in December and took with him to Colorado State 11 Wolf Pack players, five recruits and several assistant coaches. So far it has been a disaster for the Rams. They rank last in total offense and are in the bottom-10 in numerous other offensive categories, including rushing, third-down conversion rate, red zone offense, scoring defense and several special teams categories. The Rams are in the argument for worst team in the country. Yes, the Rams played Michigan and Washington State. But they also lost to Middle Tennessee State by 15 points and fell to FCS Sacramento State by 31 points. |
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10-03-22 | Giants +1.5 v. Padres | 4-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
I doubt the Padres have their full focus for this game after celebrating their first full-season playoff berth since 2006. The Padres clinched that spot yesterday. The Giants have been playing much better as they close out their season, winning 11 of their last 13 games. The Padres would be 3-8 in their last 11 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. The pitching matchup is John Brebbia versus Joe Musgrove. Brebbia will serve as the opener. He's worked one inning in each of his last nine starts, not giving up a run during this span. He holds a 1.80 ERA in five relief appearances against San Diego. Musgrove is having a strong year for San Diego with a 10-7 record and 3.03 ERA. However, this is an action play for me based on the Giants' hot streak and San Diego being in letdown mode. |
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10-02-22 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Lions | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
The Seahawks blasted the Lions, 51-29, in Week 17 last season. Rashaad Penny rushed for 170 yards in that game. Since then the Seahawks have gotten worse and the Lions have improved. Detroit's improvement has come on offense. Defensively the Lions remain inept. They are last in scoring defense surrendering 31 points a game and 29th in total defense. They only have two takeaways and just lost Tracy Walker for the season with an Achilles tendon injury. He was one of the Lions' few good players on defense and a team captain. The Seahawks have enough playmakers around Geno Smith to produce points against such a weak defense. Seattle also has enough defense to keep this close - if not pull the upset - when you take away the Lions' two best skill position players plus their kicker. That's the case here. D'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Austin Seibert are all out. I like the Lions in an underdog role. But laying points is not something I want to do with Detroit especially when the team is minus the dynamic Swift and reliable go-to receiver St. Brown. |
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10-02-22 | Jets v. Steelers -3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
The good news for the Jets is Joe Flacco won't be under center anymore. The bad news is Zach Wilson will be. I don't understand Jets optimism about Wilson. He was horrendous as a rookie last season. One of the three-worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Not only could Wilson be rusty making his 2022 debut, but the Jets have an injury-riddled, inexperienced offensive line. The Jets are down to fourth-string left tackle Conor McDermott to protect Wilson's blindside. New York's other starting offensive tackle is fourth-round rookie Max Mitchell. What good are intriguing skill position talents if you have an inaccurate quarterback behind a bad offensive line? The Steelers won't have superstar T.J. Watt. But they have other decent pass rushers. I give the Steelers a strong coaching edge with Mike Tomlin over Robert Saleh plus a situational advantage having extra preparation time from having played last Thursday. That extra time helped Minkah Fitzpatrick come out of concussion protocol. He's a difference maker on defense. Mitch Trubisky has excellent receiving weapons and is playing a softer defense at home. This is Trubisky's best opportunity all season. Following this game, the Steelers play the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles with three of those games being on the road. So this is a very important win opportunity that Pittsburgh can't blow. |
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10-01-22 | UL-Monroe v. Arkansas State -7 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show | |
Louisiana-Monroe has played two road games this season. The Warhawks lost by 42 points to Texas and fell to Alabama by 56 points in those away matchups. Arkansas State certainly isn't the caliber of the Longhorns and Crimson Tide. But the Red Wolves are more than a touchdown better than Monroe at home. The Red Wolves have covered the past 12 times against the Warhawks. The Warhawks rank 116th in scoring averaging 18.3 points. They are 112th defensively giving up 34.8 points. Yet Monroe could actually be in a letdown spot after upsetting UW-Lafayette, 21-17, at home last Saturday as 9 1/2-point 'dogs. Arkansas State has a huge quarterback edge with James Blackman. The Red Wolves rolled over Grambling, 58-3, at home opening week. They've been on the road for their next three games. Those were all losses. But the Red Wolves had tough competition playing Ohio State, Memphis and Old Dominion. Now they finally get to play at home again. The Warkhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. Look for Arkansas State to make it 13 straight covers against Monroe. |
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10-01-22 | Iowa State v. Kansas +3 | 11-14 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas made a great coaching hire with Lance Leipold last year. That's becoming even more clear this season as Leipold has the Jayhawks at 4-0 and close to Top-25 status. The Jayhawks have been doing it with offense averaging 47 points behind QB Jalon Daniels. Iowa State is the opposite. The 3-1 Cyclones rely on a stingy defense that ranks 14th in total defense and 17th in scoring defense. This is a tough spot for Iowa State. The Cyclones had their Big 12 home conference victory streak snapped at 11 losing to Baylor, 31-24, last Saturday. Now the Cyclones have to travel to Kansas where the Jayhawks are on the verge of a national breakthrough. |
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10-01-22 | East Carolina -8.5 v. South Florida | Top | 48-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
This matchup is below-the-radar. Because if it wasn't, East Carolina would be a much larger favorite. South Florida lost its home field advantage when the game was moved from Orlando to Boca Raton because of Hurricane Ian. The Bulls were 2-10 last season. They are terrible again this season going 0-3 against Division I teams. The Bulls were slaughtered, 41-3, by Louisville last week. They were out-gained by 384 yards in that game. East Carolina is 2-2, but has outgained its opponent in every game. The Pirates nearly upset North Carolina State as a 12-point 'dog, losing 21-20 on a missed extra point. The Pirates have covered nine of their last 12 games. They have a balanced attack and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers, one of the better QB's in the American Athletic Conference. The Pirates beat South Florida, 29-14, last season. Expect the same this time around, too. |
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10-01-22 | Michigan v. Iowa +10.5 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 6 m | Show | |
The Hawkeyes have had this game circled ever since Michigan embarrassed them, 42-3, in the Big 10 Championship Game last December. Michigan is 4-0. But the Wolverines have played one of the easiest schedules in the country - Colorado State, Hawaii, Connecticut and Maryland. They played all those teams at home, too. The Wolverines haven't seen a defense anywhere near this elite caliber. Iowa gives up the fewest points per game at 5.8 and the fifth fewest yards per game. The Hawkeyes have a tremendous record of upsetting top-five ranked teams going 5-1 during the past six instances. |
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09-30-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cardinals | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
There's more than meets the eye in this matchup. The Cardinals are home for the first time since Sept. 18. They return as National League Central Division champions. So their concentration level could be off especially facing the lowly Pirates. It's also their first home game since Albert Pujols hit his 700th big league homer. That could mean pregame festivities to celebrate and more distractions for the Cardinals. The pitching matchup is Johan Oviedo versus Jack Flaherty. Name recognition certainly goes with Flaherty. But, again, more than meets the eye here. Flaherty is on the comeback trail. He's 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA in four starts this year. Flaherty last pitched Sept. 22. So he could be rusty. The Cardinals probably aren't going to stretch him out either trying to balance rest and with getting prepared for their upcoming playoffs. Oviedo won't lack motivation being a former Cardinal. He pitched brilliantly in his last start, blanking the Cubs on three hits in seven innings last Saturday. |
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09-29-22 | A's v. Angels -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
The A's are the worst team in the American League. Things aren't going to get any better for Oakland in this matchup pitting Cole Irvin against Shohei Ohtani. Irvin is coming up to his career high in innings set to make his 29th start. The workload could be taking a toll. Irvin has an 8.49 ERA in four starts this month. He's also 0-3 against the Angels this season. The Angels are batting .303 against him. Ohtani is making another strong MVP bid. Not only does he have 34 homers and 93 RBI's, but he's 14-8 on the mound with a 2.47 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and has a 203-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unlike Irvin, Ohtani is having a strong September with a 1.44 ERA and three straight victories.
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 8 m | Show |
Timing means a lot in the NFL - and the timing sure isn't good for Miami in this Thursday night road game. It's not just Tua Tagovailoa being questionable with back and ankle injuries. The Dolphins still could be exhausted from their huge, 21-19, home win against the Bills this past Sunday. The game was played in Miami's scorching September humidity. Miami's defense was on the field for nearly 41 minutes as the Bills offense ran 89 plays. The Bengals got back on track rolling past the Jets after close losses to the Steelers and Cowboys where they played well below their capabilities. Cincinnati's offensive line, expected to be much improved, gave up two sacks to the Jets after giving up 13 during the first two games. |
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09-25-22 | Bengals -6 v. Jets | Top | 27-12 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
The Bengals have yet to play well. Still, they could be 2-0. They lost to the Cowboys on a 50-yard field goal as time expired and nearly beat the Steelers in overtime despite a minus-5 turnover ratio. Neither the Cowboys, nor Steelers, are very good right now. But the Jets are bottom tier. So not only are the Bengals stepping down in class, but the spot sets up well for them. Cincinnati already is in must-win mode at risk of falling 0-3. The Jets are in a rare fat-and-happy mood. They still might be riding Cloud 9 after their miracle comeback against the Browns last Sunday after being down 13 points with less than two minutes left. The last time a comeback like that was pulled off was 21 years ago. Don't be fooled, though. Joe Flacco still is Joe Flacco. He's an immobile sloth who is washed-up. The Super Bowl runner-up Bengals are at least two levels higher than the Jets. Joe Burrow should have the rust off now. Tee Higgins is expected to play joining superstar Ja'Marr Chase. Cincinnati's revamped offensive line is due to play much better against a weak Jets defense. |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Colts | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 34 m | Show | |
I have no doubt the Colts will be up for this game. They have to be sitting 0-2. But Indy can't compete offensively with the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill. But this loss has been more than offset with better receiving depth both at wide receiver and at running back along with an improved offensive line. Gus Bradley is the Colts' new defensive coordinator. He's an overrated defensive coordinator, whose style is a conservative Cover 3 defense. Mahomes picks apart this style of coverage. He's thrown for 966 yards with a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past three times he's gone against a Bradley defense. Matt Ryan can't keep up with this. Ryan isn't Tom Brady. He's an old 37. Aside from Jonathan Taylor, Ryan has limited weaponry. He's looked terrible so far. Ryan's been sacked seven times, thrown four interceptions and fumbled five times in his two starts with Indy. The Chiefs are on an extra rest, too, having played their Week 2 game on a Thursday. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches with extra prep time. |
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09-25-22 | Eagles v. Washington Commanders +6.5 | 24-8 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 57 m | Show | |
I've been very impressed with Jalen Hurts this season. But Carson Wentz hasn't been bad either. Wentz is tied for the TD passing lead with seven and ranks No. 2 in passing yards with 650. He's the Commanders' best quarterback in at least four years. Washington has set Wentz up for success with a sturdy offensive line and four underrated receiving targets - Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas. The Commanders' defense isn't likely to reach their top-five status of 2020, but it should be better than last season. But a big key here is the spot. The Eagles are off an impressive Monday night beatdown of the Vikings. Now they're traveling on a short week while laying a touchdown against a division rival. Philadelphia is not a good road team either from a point spread perspective going 5-12 ATS in its past 17 away contests. The Eagles also have failed to cover in 14 of their last 18 September games. The underdog in this series is 3-0-1 ATS during the last four meetings. |
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09-24-22 | USC -5.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
After six years of avoiding Southern Cal because Clay Helton was its coach, it's safe again to back the Trojans. Their new coach, offensive guru Lincoln Riley, has turned around the Trojans. Riley brought QB Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma. Williams is one of the top QB's in the country. He's thrown for 874 yards and eight TD's this season for the 3-0 Trojans. Williams' top target is Jordan Addison, one of the best wide receivers in the nation. Oregon State also is 3-0. The Beavers are getting strong QB play, too, from Chase Nolan. He ranks 13th in passer ratings. But there's a class and athlete difference between these two schools. Helton couldn't take advantage of that. The Beavers upset USC as a double-digit road 'dog last season. That was Oregon State's first win in Los Angeles in 61 years. So the Trojans also have revenge motivation to go with an edge in athleticism along with an elite coach and quarterback. The Trojans have taken much better care of the ball under Riley, not nearly as careless. They are plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways. That's the best ratio in the nation. USC has yet to turn the ball over. |
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09-24-22 | Toledo v. San Diego State +3 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
San Diego State went 12-2 last season. The Aztecs lost some key players, but they shouldn't be a home underdog to Toledo. The Rockets are 2-1, but look at who they've played. Toledo's victories have been against Long Island, 37-0, and UMass, 55-10. Those victories padded their team statistics. When Toledo stepped way up in class, the Rockets were clobbered, 77-21, at Ohio State. The Aztecs are 1-2 but have played stronger competition. Their losses were to Pac-12 teams, Arizona and powerful Utah. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers +5 v. Browns | Top | 17-29 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
Points especially matter here. That's usually the case with a total Under 40. I'll accept this many in this division matchup. The Steelers have flaws, yes. But the Browns can't be trusted - nor should they be - in this point spread range. As bad as Mitch Trubisky is, I'll take him above Jacoby Brissett. The Steelers are giving up 18.5 points per game, which includes an overtime period against the Bengals. The Browns rank 26th in defensive scoring allowing 27.5 points per game. The short week may work against the Browns. They still could be reeling from blowing a 13-point lead with 1:55 left in a shocking, 31-30, home loss to the Jets this past Sunday. Najee Harris is off to a slow start. Harris shredded the Browns for 279 rushing yards last season helping Pittsburgh defeat Cleveland twice. If Harris can get back on pace that would relieve pressure on Trubisky, who has much better receiving targets than Brissett has. Harris catches a break with Browns defensive end Jadeveon Clowney ruled out with an ankle injury. The Steelers have covered five of the last six in the series. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Mike Tomlin gets a strong checkmark in the coaching department against Kevin Stefanski. The Steelers have covered 63 percent of the time when getting points during the Tomlin era. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 25 m | Show |
The Packers suffered a very frustrating loss to the Vikings opening week. Fortunately for them their favorite patsy is up next - the Bears. It's true Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears. Green Bay has defeated Chicago six consecutive times and 12 of the last 14 times at Lambeau Field. Rodgers has accounted for 15 TD's in the Packers' last four games against Chicago with a 141.5 passer rating. Unlike past victories, though, the Packers will dominate the Bears in the trenches and with a strong 1-2 running/catching punch of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Rodgers should have Allen Lazard back as his No. 1 wide receiver. He'll also be looking to throw to reliable tight end Robert Tonyan, who he has excellent chemistry with. Green Bay's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. The Bears, on the other hand, may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Chicago's inexperienced tackles Braxton Jones and Larry Borom are no match for Kenny Clark, emerging Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. This is the biggest mismatch between defensive line and offensive line in all of the Week 2 matchups. The Bears' upset of the 49ers last week came because Justin Fields threw a 51-yard TD pass on a busted play when Chicago was trailing 10-0. That got the Bears going and ignited them. The 49ers were flat. Trey Lance is inexperienced. Rodgers is not. Rodgers has turned the ball over only once the last six times he's faced the Bears. The Packers have won 13 straight regular-season home games. This isn't the playoffs, the Packers won't choke here. |
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09-18-22 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9 | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 42 h 11 m | Show | |
Stop worrying about Trey Lance. He'll be fine playing at home without having to deal with a hostile Chicago crowd playing in monsoon-type conditions. He has a solid offensive line, an ace play-caller in Kyle Shanahan and a real weapon with versatile Deebo Samuel. It's an added bonus if George Kittle can play. Instead fixate on Seattle's situation. The Seahawks are off a huge home Monday night upset win of Denver and Russell Wilson. Even playing their division rivals, the Seahawks are in a dreadful spot traveling on a short week following that emotional victory. The Seahawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a victory - and that was with Wilson. Now their quarterback is Geno Smith. One game doesn't change the fact that Smith is a game-manager with a propensity for turnovers. Smith isn't helped playing behind one of the worst and most inexperienced offensive lines in the league. The 49ers hold a monster edge in the trenches with their defensive line. The Seahawks were able to protect their two rookie offensive tackles by throwing only 17 times against the Broncos. That's not likely to happen again. Nick Bosa is right there with Aaron Donald as the most disruptive defensive lineman in the NFC. The 49ers are going to be up for this game after blowing a 10-0 lead against the Bears. They will play with urgency. San Francisco has covered its last four home contests. Lance's task is made easier by the Seahawks losing their best defensive and most versatile player, safety Jamal Adams. |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State +17 v. Washington State | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a great situational play to fade Washington State. The Cougars are coming off a monster road upset of Wisconsin. Up next for the Cougars is a much bigger game, their Pac-12 opener at home against Oregon. You couldn't fault the Cougars if they overlook and take for granted Colorado State. The Rams have looked terrible in their two games, getting blown out by Michigan and getting upset at home by Middle Tennessee State. Improvement should be forthcoming for the Rams under new coach Jay Norvell. They have a talented freshman QB, Clay Millen, and are better than they have looked. Colorado State was tabbed to finish in the top-five in the Mountain West Conference before the season began. So there is talent there. Washington State is not some great team just because it stunned Wisconsin. The Cougars struggled at home to get past Idaho, 24-17, the week before playing Wisconsin as a four-touchdown favorite. They were projected to be a middle-of-the-road Pac-12 team. The Cougars have covered only two of their last nine non-conference games even with that victory against the Badgers. |
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09-17-22 | BYU v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
There are two ways of looking at Georgia's 49-3 thrashing of Oregon in Atlanta two weeks ago. Either the defending national champion and top-ranked Bulldogs are that good, or Oregon isn't nearly as dangerous as cracked up to be. I go with the first. Look for the Ducks to get redemption on national TV in the confines of Autzen Stadium where they have won 20 straight and 29 consecutive non-conference games. BYU is ranked 12th in the nation following its exciting 26-20 overtime home win against Baylor last Saturday. But the Cougars are nowhere near the level of Georgia. They also are likely to be without their two best wide receivers again, Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua. Oregon is tough in the trenches - one of the few schools to return all five of its starting offensive linemen - and has physical linebackers. BYU averaged only 2.4 yards rushing against Baylor. But the Ducks' major strengths are speed and skill position depth. These are major edges against BYU and will prove the difference. Oregon got some of its confidence back rolling past Eastern Washington - a decent FCS school - 70-14, covering easily as 27-point home 'dogs last week. Oregon QB Bo Nix always has been better at home where he has a 28-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to just 12-to-12 on the road. Nix should have ample time to spot his speedy downfield targets given the experience of his offensive line. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
Yes, the Chiefs look great again. But the Chargers are right up with them as a double-digit win team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. The Chargers traveling on a short week is mitigated by this being an early-season division game so the fatigue factor is lessened and the team has familiarity with the opponent. The point spread should not be this high. It's partly due to an overreaction from the Chiefs smashing the Cardinals opening week. The Cardinals, though, are a bad and banged-up team right now. The Chargers can match the Chiefs' talent level. Justin Herbert, like Patrick Mahomes, is a top-five quarterback. The Chargers have by far the best running back in Austin Ekeler and the better pass rush with Khalil Mack making an immediate impact last week in tandem with another premier pass rusher, Joey Bosa. Los Angeles also is strong in the defensive backfield and in the offensive line. Really the Chargers' only weaknesses are stopping the run and special teams. But the Chiefs don't beat teams on the ground and it's their kicker, Harrison Butker, who is out. The Chargers have fared well recently when playing in Kansas City going 3-0-1 ATS during their last four visits. The Chargers have won there each of the last two seasons. No shock at all if they make it three straight road victories against the Chiefs. |
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09-14-22 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
The Tigers were no match for the Astros in the first two games of this series losing by a combined 10 runs. Don't look for anything to change in the series finale. It's a day game pitting Christian Javier against rooke Tigers lefty Joey Wentz. This has all the makings of another lopsided Houston victory. The Astros are an elite team. They are especially tough in day games and facing southpaws. Houston is 37-13 in day games this season. The Astros also are 42-14 the past 56 times they've gone against a lefty starter. Wentz has an 8.10 home ERA. The right-handed Javier has a 3.01 ERA. That shrinks to 1.80 when he pitches during the day. The Tigers rank last in the league in runs and homers. They have lost 41 of the past 58 times when going against a righty starter. |
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09-12-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Unlike some teams, the Diamondbacks haven't quit at this late stage of the season. They have won 10 of their last 16 games. Arizona is swinging hot bats, too, scoring five or more runs in six of its last eight games. Ryne Nelson makes his second big-league start. He was phenomenal for the Diamondbacks in his first start throwing seven shutout innings in a 5-0 victory against the Padres a week ago. Nelson allowed only four baserunners and struck out seven. Dodgers starter Tyler Anderson is enjoying an outstanding season. But Anderson doesn't have a good history against the Diamondbacks. He has a 5.22 career ERA and 1.46 WHIP against them in 16 appearances, including 14 starts. |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
Huge motivation for both teams in this Monday night Russell Wilson Bowl. But the pressure is on Denver as road chalk. Expectations aren't nearly as high on the Seahawks. Seattle has a strong home field advantage. The crowd will be up for this matchup. Wilson is several rungs higher than Geno Smith. But Smith has weapons with D.K. Metcalf. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant. Rashad Penny is healthy so Smith has a ground attack to rely upon, too. I find the Broncos to be overrated. Wilson is on the downside of his career. He's not quite as accurate as before and he's less of a danger to run. Wilson didn't get any timing down with his new team during preseason. So the Seahawks catch the Broncos at a good time. The Seahawks are 19-8-1 ATS as a home underdog during the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have covered 16 of the last 23 times they've been a 'dog. Smith, for all the criticism, is 6-3 ATS as a home 'dog when starting. |
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09-11-22 | Sun v. Aces -5.5 | 64-67 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
The Aces have the talent, best player on the court in A'ja Wilson, best guard in Kelsey Plum and a tremendous coach, WNBA Coach of the Year Becky Hammon. Oh, yes, the Aces are in a great situational spot here in this first game of the WNBA Finals against the Suns. Given all of these factors, I see Las Vegas covering this spread. The Aces last played Tuesday. They've had four full days to rest and prepare for Connecticut having already been on the West Coast. The Sun had to go the full five games in their semifinal series against the Sky. They upset the Sky in Chicago this past Thursday. This marks Connecticut's fourth game in seven days. The Sun are coming in from the East Coast and this is an early start time especially for them. Las Vegas won two of the three regular season meetings between the two teams. The Sun have the deeper bench. But that isn't going to matter in this opening game. The Aces have the superior starting lineup and Hammon is going to ride that. I don't see the Sun slowing down the Aces' offense, which was the best in the league. |
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09-11-22 | Colts v. Texans +8.5 | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 143 h 55 m | Show | |
The Colts have failed to cover in their last seven season-openers. Expect that streak to continue. Division underdogs in Week 1 traditionally fare well. That should be the case here especially given Indy's history. Going back to 2014, the Colts are 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS opening week. This includes an 0-4 SU and ATS mark under Frank Reich. Indy didn't look good during preseason. The Colts are making the transition to a new QB - Matt Ryan. And his best days are behind him. Ryan also has a below average wide receiving corps with Michael Pittman the only reliable wideout. The Colts also are minus a couple of key defensive pieces. Star linebacker Darius Leonard is hurt and Matt Eberflus, their ace defensive coordinator, is gone, taking over as the Bears' head coach. The Texans aren't the worst team in the NFL. They actually are better than perceived on the offensive line, quarterback where Davis Mills flashed last season and at running back where promising Dameon Pierce has taken the No. 1 role. Pep Hamilton is one of the more underrated offensive coordinators. The Texans held their last four opponents to an average of 24 points, a below average figure but not disastrous. Houston went 3-0 in preseason while holding their opponents to an average of 11 points a game. The Texans won't lack motivation in Love Smith's debut as their head coach. The Colts swept the Texans last season by a combined score of 62-3. Indy hadn't defeated the Texans by more than a touchdown during the previous six meetings before last year. |
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09-11-22 | 49ers -7 v. Bears | 10-19 | Loss | -103 | 143 h 44 m | Show | |
Later in the season this point spread will be considered a gift to the 49ers. I already consider it way off. The 49ers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Bears have the worst talent in the league. Trey Lance and Justin Fields are similar. Both are in their second NFL-season. Both have tremendous mobility and big arms. But Lance is surrounded by superior talent both offensively and defensively. The Bears had a minus-96 point differential last season. They could be even worse this year. Fields is inexperienced and not accurate. But he's not even among the many major problems the Bears have, which include perhaps the worst offensive line in the league, multiple holes on defense and a well-below average pass receiving group. Lance won't be asked to do too much because the 49ers should have no problem pounding the Bears on the ground thus setting up Lance to pick his passing spots. San Francisco was seventh in rushing last season. The Bears ranked in the bottom-10 in run defense. |
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09-10-22 | South Alabama v. Central Michigan -4.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
Don't be fooled by the Week 1 outcomes when accessing these two teams in this matchup. South Alabama rolled past Nicholls State, an FCS school, 48-7, last week while Central Michigan lost 58-44 to Oklahoma State. The Jaguars are a middle-of-the-road Sun Belt Conference team. They have failed to cover in their last six road games. Central Michigan covered against Oklahoma State, who is ranked 11th in the country. Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson completed 36 of 49 passes for 424 yards and four TD's with no interceptions against the Cowboys. The Chippewas came on strong last season winning seven of their last nine games, including upsetting Washington State in a bowl game. They are on a 6-0 covering run. So give me a solid MAC team against this Sun Belt foe. |
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09-09-22 | Louisville v. Central Florida -5.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
Louisville and its quarterback, Malik Cunningham, are not who we thought they would be. The Cardinals are much worse than imagined and Cunningham, hindered by a bad offensive line and devoid of talented wide receivers, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath with his Louisville predecessor, Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals were buried, 31-7, by underdog Syracuse in their opener last Saturday. The Orange have an excellent running back, but little else offensively. Yet they produced 449 yards of offense against Louisville with Orange QB Garrett Shrader racking up 332 yards of offense with his arm and legs. The Cardinals gave up an average of more than 400 yards per game last season and don't appear improved. Now Louisville has to go back on the road to face a better QB in Central Florida's John Rhys Plumlee, a transfer from Mississippi. Plumlee rolled up 407 yards of offense in leading the Knights to a 56-10 win against South Carolina State in their opener eight days ago. Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road games. Central Florida's defensive strength is its secondary. So I don't see the overrated Cunningham faring much better while the Knights behind Plumlee can take advantage of the Cardinals' porous defense. |
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09-08-22 | Sun +4.5 v. Sky | 72-63 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
The Sun just didn't beat the Sky this past Tuesday at home to tie this semifinal series at 2-2, they buried Chicago, 104-80. That sets up this deciding Game 5 in Chicago. Connecticut has the confidence and momentum to upset the defending champion Sky in Chicago. Getting this many points is a nice bonus. The Sun are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Chicago is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on one day rest. The taller Sun frontline dominated the Sky in Tuesday's game with 66 points in the paint. Candace Parker is forced to do too much and fatigue is wearing her down. The Sky's backcourt also hasn't been playing well, turning the ball over too many times. |
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09-06-22 | Aces v. Storm +1 | Top | 97-92 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
It may have been the best game of the entire WNBA season when Las Vegas beat Seattle on the road two days ago in overtime, 110-98. The Aces forced overtime by scoring at the buzzer. The Storm blew a 4-point lead with 11 seconds left. Seattle led the WNBA in free throw percentage and 3-point shooting. But the Storm's Tina Charles missed a pair of free throws near the end that would have likely sealed the victory in regulation for Seattle. The Storm also was outshot from 3-point range by Las Vegas in Sunday's loss. The Aces can clinch the semifinal series with a victory today leading the best-of-five series 2-1. Seattle won the first game of the series. The Aces have won the last two. But I deeply envision the Storm forcing a Game 5 by winning this home game. Why? Let me count the reasons: I don't see the Storm losing in Sue Bird's final career game at home. I can't see A'Ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray playing any better than they did this past Sunday. They are both excellent players. Wilson might be the best player in the league. But they were both on their ''A'' game. They can only hope to match those performances, which is going to be extremely difficult. I don't envision Seattle losing for the third time in a row. The only time the Storm lost three in a row was during their second, third and fourth games of the season back in early-to-mid May. The Aces are 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory. I doubt the Aces will shoot better than the Storm from beyond the arc again. Seattle was the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the league. The Aces ranked 10th of 12 teams in 3-point defense. Yet Las Vegas made 52 percent of its 28 3-point shots Sunday, while the Storm hit 48 percent of their 27 3-point shots. |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
This is far more of a mismatch than this point spread indicates. Louisville has defeated Syracuse the past three times by an average of 30 points, including out-scoring the Orange, 71-3, during the last two meetings. Louisville owns a monster edge at QB with Malik Cunningham, the top rushing QB in the ACC. Cunningham is protected by a very underrated offensive line. Syracuse is forced to be one-dimensional on the ground with Sean Tucker because its QB, Garret Shrader, is terrible. Shrader is very inaccurate and he's not helped by a weak group of receivers. Tucker is excellent, but the Cardinals will be stacking the line against him. The Orange haven't been able to turn the corner under Dino Babers with just 11 victories during the past three years. |
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09-02-22 | Illinois +1.5 v. Indiana | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Illinois plus 1 1/2 at Indiana The Illini have star running back Chase Brown and a better defense than Indiana. They also have the advantage of having played a game, looking impressive in a 38-6 victory against Wyoming last Saturday. Indiana was 2-10 last season. That included an 0-9 Big Ten season in which the Hoosiers lost by an average of 24.6 points. So I believe the wrong team is favored here. Illinois held Wyoming to six points on 212 total yards. Cowboys QB Andrew Peasley was 5-of-20 for 30 passing yards. Indiana has new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Hoosiers didn't play last week and didn't even hold a spring game. They haven't even announced who their starting QB will be trying to replace Michael Penix Jr., who transferred to Washington. The Hoosiers are emphasizing a spread offense since they can't run the ball very well unlike Illinois, who rushed for 260 yards against Wyoming with Brown gaining 151 yards on the ground on 19 carries. Wyoming is bad, but so is Indiana. The Illini's strength is a defense that ranked in the top-30 in giving up the fewest points per game at 21.9. Illinois only permitted four passing TD's in Big Ten games and return three/fourths of its secondary.
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09-02-22 | Ottawa +5.5 v. Montreal | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 52 m | Show |
Ottawa has covered during each of its last NINE visits to Montreal. That's a strong historical trend. But there is much more as to why I like the underdog Redblacks to cover if not win straight-up. The Redblacks have covered four of their five road games this season. Montreal is a money-burner at home covering only four of its last 14 home contests. Ottawa has a respectable defense. The Redblacks are giving up an average of 19.5 points in their last four games. Montreal has won two in a row. But the Alouettes may have lost that winning momentum since they last played on Aug. 20. This is just their third game since Aug. 11. Their two victories in a row came by three in overtime and by one point. The Alouettes have surrendered an average of 31.6 points in their last three home games. Ottawa looks like it has gotten its offense back on track with Nick Arubckle returning at quarterback. He helped spark the Redblacks to a 25-18 road upset victory against Edmonton as a short underdog in Ottawa's last game. The Redblacks don't need to have a dominant offense to upset Montreal. They can accomplish this via ball-control with Arbuckle providing steady quarterback play and Devonte Williams running the ball. Williams is in line for a big game facing a Montreal defense that ranks second-to-last in run defense giving up 5.3 yards per carry on the ground and 10 rushing TD's. |
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08-31-22 | Sun v. Sky -4.5 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
The defending WNBA champion Sky understand how crucial winning Game 2 of this semifinal series against the Sun is after getting upset at home by Connecticut in Game 1. Teams leading the best-of-five playoff series are 15-0 in WNBA history. In other words, no team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit. The Sky also realizes that Games 3 and 4 are in Connecticut. Chicago also was upset in its playoff opener at home last series losing to New York, 98-91. The Sky came back to smash the Liberty by 38 points in Game 2 at home. The Sun are tough inside. They defeated the Wings in their previous playoff series despite making only 13 of 46 3-pointers. Connecticut was able to hurt Dallas inside. The Sky hold a backcourt edge and they have the bigs with Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman to combat Jonquel Jones, DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas. |
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08-29-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Angels | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
On the surface this seems like a spot to back the underdog Angels. After all, they just swept three games from the Blue Jays in Toronto while the Yankees dropped their second straight game to the lowly A's in Oakland on Sunday. Frankie Montas goes against lefty Jose Suarez. Montas is a good pitcher. He started slow when he was dealt to the Yankees but looked back to normal in his last start holding the Mets to two runs in 5 1/3 innings with six strikeouts. Suarez has a 4.19 ERA compared to Montas' 3.84 ERA. Suarez's ERA climbs to 4.81 when pitching at home. Suarez has fattened his record and stats facing the weak-hitting A's twice and Royals once during his last five starts giving up no earned runs in those three appearances spanning 17 1/3 innings. Suarez is facing a Yankees squad that is first in homers and second in runs. Not exactly the A' and Royals. The Yankees are 40-18 in their last 58 games against a southpaw starter. New York also has beaten the Angels seven of the last 10 times on the road. |
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08-28-22 | Sun +4 v. Sky | 68-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
The Sun have covered in their last seven road games. They are a blistering 13-3 (81%) ATS in their past 16 games. I'm backing the Sun to cover - if not upset - Chicago on the road in this opening WNBA semifinal series. The Sky has lost four of their last seven games. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Chicago opened its previous series with a 98-91 home loss to New York as a 10-point favorite. Connecticut should be less rusty than Chicago having last played this past Wednesday. The Sky clinched their series against the Liberty this past Tuesday. The Sky went 4-0 against Connecticut during the regular season. Yet three of those four games were decided by four points or less with the game tied or the Sun leading in the fourth quarter or overtime. Chicago is the defending WNBA champion. Connecticut, though, has plenty of postseason experience having reached the semifinals for each of the last four seasons. The Sky eliminated them in the playoffs last year. The Sun have been pointing to this first game and getting revenge for a long time. Now is their chance. |
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08-27-22 | Wyoming v. Illinois -10 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show | |
Illinois' defense showed great improvement last year holding opponents to 21.9 points per game after giving up 34.9 points a game in 2020. The Illini ranked 31st in scoring defense - down from 97th of two seasons ago - while holding nine of their 12 opponents below their season scoring average. Look for the Illini to shut down Wyoming, which was hammered with skill position players transferring. The list of lost players includes their two top QB's along with wide receivers Isaiah Neyor and Xazavian Valladay. The point spread key is if Illinois has enough offense to cover a double-digit point spread. I believe they do. The ground game is there with Chase Brown, the best skill position player on either side and one of the better running backs in the Big Ten. The Illini also upgraded their passing attack with Tommy DeVito, formerly of Syracuse. DeVito isn't a star, but he's more of a downfield threat than what the Illini had. He can effectively pick his spots against a Cowboys secondary that lost all four of their starters. Wyoming hasn't defeated a Power Five program on the road in 17 years. Don't look for that streak to end here. |
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08-26-22 | Hamilton +2.5 v. Toronto | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 42 m | Show | |
Hamilton is the road team, but taking points with the Tiger-Cats is a bonus. I see Hamilton as the better team with the return of QB Dane Evans. He didn't play in Hamilton's last two games because of a shoulder injury. Evans had the second-most passing yardage in the CFL this season behind only BC QB Nathan Rourke. Evans should have a big game as Toronto has a league-low 16 sacks. The Argos have trouble running the ball ranking last in average yards per run. They are without their star runner, injured Andrew Harris. Hamilton ranks No. 2 in the league in run defense. So the Argos shouldn't be able to achieve any balance on offense. The Tiger-Cats are 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times playing in Toronto. |
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08-25-22 | Yankees v. A's +1.5 | 13-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
The Yankees are extremely home run-reliant. That's why they can get into trouble when playing in spacious West Coast parks such as the Oakland Coliseum. Proof of that is in the record. New York has lost 23 of the past 32 times in Oakland. This is just the Yankees' second West Coast trip of the season. They dropped two of three to Seattle during their previous West Coast stay. The Yankees are 2-9 in their past 11 overall road games. Oakland starter James Kaprielian has a 4.29 ERA. But he's pitched much better lately holding four of his last five opponents to two earned runs or fewer. The Yankees haven't been mashing like they were earlier. New York has been held to four runs or less in 13 of their last 14 games. Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Yankees. Unlike Kaprielian, he's not in good form surrendering 15 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 23 2/3 innings. He has a 6.75 ERA against the A's during three career starts. |
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08-24-22 | Sun -4.5 v. Wings | Top | 73-58 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
This is the third and deciding game in this playoff series. The Sun are at least one level higher than the Wings. Perhaps they got overconfident, though, after they buried Dallas, 93-68, in Game 1. The Wings came back to upset the Sun, 89-79, this past Sunday. Both of those games were in Connecticut. That was the Wings' first playoff victory since 2009. Now Dallas is likely to get back Arike Ogunbowale, its leading scorer. The Wings are the home team here. Things are looking up for the Wings, right? Perhaps. But I don't see the Wings upsetting the Sun again in this winner-take-all matchup. Connecticut has more talent, deeper bench and big-game playoff experience. Ogunbowale has missed eight of Dallas' last nine games. So she could be rusty. The Wings did fine without her to make the playoffs. Connecticut is looking to reach the semifinals for the fourth consecutive season. Dallas has one playoff victory in the last 13 years. The Sun had the second-best road record in the league at 12-6. The Wings have a losing home mark. The Sun also have covered their past six away contests and are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've played in Dallas. |
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08-21-22 | Wings +12 v. Sun | 89-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
The Sun is the superior team. No argument there. But the Wings are much better than they showed in the playoff opener when they were embarrassed by the Sun, 93-68. I see the Wings playing much better while giving everything they have with their season on the brink here. Dallas did beat the Sun two of three during the regular season. The Wings have covered seven of their last nine road games and are 6-1 ATS following a loss.
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08-19-22 | Saints v. Packers -3 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The teams have been conducting joint practices and the Packers' defense has been getting the better of things, according to multiple reports. Jordan Love has much to prove in this game. So does the Packers wide receiving corps. Saints coach Dennis Allen has never won a preseason road game as a head coach going 0-7, including 1-6 ATS. New Orleans doesn't put a premium on preseason games. The Saints are 7-14 SU, 6-15 ATS in preseason since 2015. The Saints aren't putting emphasis on this game either. The Saints aren't going to play many starters here. The few they do won't play long, perhaps a series or two. Jameis Winston is nursing a slight foot injury. He won't play. New Orleans' backup QB's are Andy Dalton and Ian Book, a stiff who figures to draw most of the minutes. The Saints' third and fourth-stringers didn't look good in a 17-13 loss to the Texans last week. The Packers are likely to leave some of their starters and second-stringers in longer than the Saints. Green Bay is home and cares more about winning this game than New Orleans does. |
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08-17-22 | Liberty v. Sky -8 | Top | 98-91 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
The defending WNBA champion Chicago Sky host the New York Liberty in this opening playoff game. There's a big class difference between the 26-10 Sky and 16-20 Liberty. The key question is the gap enough for the Sky to cover this number? I say it is. The Liberty did well to get into the playoffs. They accomplished the task by winning six of their last eight games. But none of these games was against any of the top five teams in the league. There's a dropoff from the top five teams - Sky, Aces, Sun, Storm and Mystics - to the rest of the league. Chicago has a huge edge inside. The Sky led the WNBA with an average of 42.1 points in the paint. The Liberty was last in that category, averaging 31.2 points. Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman give the Sky a strong inside presence. Chicago finished No. 1 in the league in field goal percentage. The Sky also have much better depth and bench strength than New York. The Liberty is highly reliant on star guard Sabrina Ionescu. But she can go hot and cold. New York ranked third-from-the-bottom in scoring. The Liberty did well to reach the postseason. But they aren't going to advance out of the first round. |
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08-14-22 | Vikings v. Raiders -4 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
When it comes to preseason, laying more than a field goal is a lot. But it's justified in this case backing the host Raiders. Las Vegas has the huge edge of having played a game, having looked good in beating the Jaguars, 27-11, in last week's Hall of Fame Game. The Vikings won't have Kirk Cousins. Their two other QB's are Sean Mannion and Kellen Mond. This is one of the weakest backup QB rotations in the league. These two are so bad that the Vikings may be forced to acquire a better second-string quarterback. The Raiders are deep at running back and receiver. They hold a backup QB edge, too, with Jarrett Stidham and Nick Mullens. These two were decent against the Jaguars. Decent quarterback play will get the job done for the Raiders, who won't be nearly as rusty as Minnesota.
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08-13-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Royals | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
The Dodgers are cooking. They've won 11 in a row - all by more than one run. LA has scored seven or more runs in eight of its last 11 games. The Royals are 20 games below .500. So I'm on board to ride this Dodgers' string today in a pitching matchup of Andrew Heaney versus Brad Keller. Heaney has been even better than the Dodgers expected since coming back from injury. He's pitched 28 innings. He has a 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and has struck out 37. Keller is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter with a 6-12 record, 4.45 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He probably wouldn't be in many team's starting rotations. Just two starts ago, Keller was pounded by the White Sox giving up 13 hits and eight earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. |
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08-12-22 | Wings v. Mercury +1.5 | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
The Mercury is a home underdog to Dallas. A big reason for this is Phoenix will be without its best player, guard Skylar Diggins-Smith, due to personal reasons. But the situation trumps this development. The Mercury are in a four-way tie for the final two playoff spots. This is their second to last game. They close the regular season against the much tougher defending WNBA champion Sky. This game means nothing to Dallas. The Wings have clinched the No. 6 seed in the playoffs. They are locked into that playoff seeding. So the game means nothing to Dallas. But do the Mercury still have enough talent to beat even a disinterested Wings squad without Diggins-Smith and injured Diana Taurasi? Yes. They have outstanding guards even minus Diggins-Smith with Diamond DeShields, Shey Peddy and Sophie Cunningham, perhaps the most improved player in the league. The Mercury showed that when they defeated the Liberty, another playoff contender, by 10 points at home this past Saturday without Diggins-Smith and Taurasi. Phoenix is 10-6 at home this season. Dallas is without a key player, too, as its leading scorer, Arike Ogunbowale, is out with a hip injury. |
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08-12-22 | Browns v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
The announcement that Deshaun Watson is going to start has caused a switch of favorites in this game. Cleveland is now road chalk. The marketplace has this wrong. The Jaguars should win this game. The Jaguars laid an egg against the Raiders in the Hall of Fame game. But now the Jaguars have played a game and are home here. Those are key situational edges. Watson hasn't played since January of 2021. He's learning a new offense and isn't likely to play very long. The Browns are run-oriented. However, their two best running backs - Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt - are not expected to play. Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson has more of a sense of urgency than Browns coach Kevin Stefanski. The Jaguars fell behind the Raiders, 20-0, at halftime. Keep in mind, the Jaguars didn't play their top two QB's, Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Beathard, against Las Vegas. Peterson is going to play a lot of starters here. Lawrence, Travis Etienne and the rest of Jacksonville's first-string offense will get at least a couple of series. Lawrence has looked good in training camp. So has Etienne. The Jaguars upgraded their wide receiving corps. Lawrence needs game time work with them. This is that opportunity. There will be many defensive starters playing, too, for Jacksonville. The Jaguars outscored the Raiders, 11-7, in the second half. Jacksonville had five sacks against Las Vegas. I would rather have Beathard than either of the Browns' third and fourth-string QB's, Josh Dobbs and Josh Rosen. Those two figure to see the bulk of action for Cleveland. |
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08-10-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Way under the radar, Mitch Keller is pitching the best ball of his career. The season numbers show a 3-8 record and 4.21 ERA. But Keller has been pitching great during his last five starts giving up just six earned runs during this 31-inning span. If given 1 1/2 runs, Pittsburgh would be 7-2 in Keller's last nine starts. One of those losses was 2-0 to the Rockies at Coors Field. Arizona is pitching Madison Bumgarner, who is on the downside of his career. He's 6-10 with a 3.96 ERA. Bumgarner has surrendered 14 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings during his last four starts allowing 30 hits and eight walks. He's given up a home run in four of his last five starts. |
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08-09-22 | Dream v. Aces -10.5 | Top | 90-97 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
The Aces got back on track this past Sunday upsetting Seattle on the road, 89-81. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon made a key adjustment starting center Kiah Stokes. That gave the Aces more size and rebounding. Las Vegas has covered 10 of the last 14 times it has hosted Atlanta. However, the last time the Dream played in Las Vegas, which was on July 19, they upset the Aces, 92-76. The Aces are in a good spot to exact revenge. The Dream are playing for the fourth time in six days. They just played in Minnesota two days ago. WNBA teams fly commercial, so six games in four days is an extremely tough grind. Making matters worse for the Dream is they are short-handed. They were only able to use eight players in their 10-point loss to the Lynx this past Sunday. One of Atlanta's missing players against the Lynx was Tiffany Hayes. She is the Dream's leading scorer. Her status is up in the air due to an ankle injury. Atlanta is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games. |
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08-07-22 | Sparks v. Mystics -9 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Out of gas and out of motivation, the Sparks should be no match for Washington. Los Angeles realizes its playoff goal is not going to be met. The Sparks' postseason hopes have realistically been dashed with a six-game losing streak, the latest coming in heart-breaking fashion. That was an 88-86 road loss to Atlanta on Friday where a Sparks' game-tying basketball came just after time expired. That loss was mentally draining for the Sparks. I don't see them getting right to put forth much of an effort in this mismatch. The Sparks are also physically drained. This is their fourth game in six days, fifth in eight days. The last four all have been away from home LA is 2-6 ATS following a loss. The Sparks have failed to cover in four of their last five visits to Washington D.C. The Mystics are one of the five best teams in the WNBA. They are at least two levels higher than the Sparks. Washington defeated Las Vegas by 10 points at home this past Tuesday, but then played one of its worst games of the season in a double-digit road loss to the defending champion Sky on Friday. The Mystics rested their superstar, two-time league MVP Elena Delle Donne, in that loss to Chicago. Delle Donne is expected to play against the Sparks. The Mystics are 6-1 ATS the past seven times versus sub .500 opponents. Unlike the 12-20 Sparks, I see the Mystics being up for this home game. Given their talent and coaching edges that should mean an easy victory. |