Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-27-20 | Warriors -3 v. Bulls | 129-128 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Both Golden State and Chicago are 0-2. All of these losses were by blowouts, too. But there's a major difference. The Warriors were buried by the Bucks and Nets, probably the two best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls lost big to the Pacers and Hawks. Billy Donovan certainly has his work cut out for him in his first season as Bulls coach. Chicago surrendered 124 points to the Hawks and 125 to the Pacers. Defense is a real problem for the Bulls. The loss to the Pacers came on Saturday. The Warriors are the more rested team having last played on Friday. Center James Wiseman, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, already is displaying his potential scoring 18 and 19 points, respectively, during his first two NBA games. Stephen Curry gives the Warriors the best player on the court by far and there's a good chance Draymond Green makes his season debut here for the Warriors. Big coaching edge, too, for the Warriors right now with Steve Kerr against Donovan.
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12-27-20 | 76ers -6 v. Cavs | 94-118 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
The 76ers were one of the worst road teams in the league last season going 10-24 before entering bubble play. Philadelphia is at least two levels higher than Cleveland. But dare we trust the 76ers to cover this mid-sized number on the road? The answer is yes. The 76ers are in a good early place right now under new coach Doc Rivers, with Ben Simmons healthy and added perimeter shooters to take the double-team pressure off Joel Embiid. These elements all were in play when the 76ers rolled past the Knicks, 109-89, at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Because of the blowout, Embiid got to rest for much of the second half playing less than 31 minutes. The Cavaliers also played on Saturday. They went double overtime to beat the Pistons, 128-119, in Detroit. Cleveland opened its season with a win against the Hornets. So the Cavaliers are in a rare fat and happy mood. They had four starters log more than 41 minutes against the Pistons. Kevin Love returned from a calf injury that kept him out of the Hornets game to play more than 37 minutes. So his minutes could be limited. |
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12-27-20 | Browns -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 24 m | Show |
Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski has turned in one of the best coaching jobs in the NFL this season. The 10-4 Browns are in line to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They have a chance to win the AFC North trailing the slumping Steelers by one game. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh next week. The Browns are far superior to the Jets in talent and coaching. But could the Browns get caught peeking ahead to their showdown against the Steelers against such a lowly opponent? That happened last Sunday to the Rams. They were upset by the Jets a week before meeting the Seahawks for an NFC West Division showdown. It won't happen to the Browns, though. The Jets' shocking victory against the Rams sets up this handicap to Cleveland in two respects: The Browns won't take the Jets lightly after seeing what happened to the Rams and the Jets are fat and happy now that they won't go winless. The Browns also know they must come in with a strong effort because they will be short-handed down their top four wide receivers and linebackers B.J. Goodson and Jacob Phillip due to COVID-19. I made this play before the news broke on Saturday about these six players being out. This would not be my NFL Game of the Year if I would have known that. However, I still very much like the Browns to cover this number. Not only has the line dropped because of this news, giving the Browns more value, but also Cleveland has the right scheme to deal effectively without their top wide receivers. The Browns use more three tight end sets than any other NFL team with Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku. Any one of these three could start for some NFL teams. Kareem Hunt is a very strong receiver out of the backfield. The Browns can deal without experienced wideouts because they are heavily ground-oriented with two outstanding running backs. Baker Mayfield relies on the run to set up his play-action. Cleveland is the No. 3 rushing team in the league. Nick Chubb and Hunt could be the best running back duo in the league. The Jets are decent in only one area - run defense. However, New York just lost its best player, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. He's out for the season after suffering a neck injury. So the Browns shouldn't have a problem running, especially with Mayfield playing his finest ball of the season. Mayfield has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games while averaging more than 300 yards passing during this span. The Jets have surrendered 30 TD passes. The Jets rank last in yards, passing yards and scoring at 14.7 points per game. The Browns have their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, back healthy. Sam Darnold has a pathetic 6-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Linebacker Mack Wilson is a capable replacement for Goodson. Many teams have multiple injuries at this late juncture of the season. The Jets are no exception. This is what Jets coach Adam Gase was quoted as saying, "We're running thin, those practice squad guys will get an opportunity this week." How good can the Jets' practice squad players be when they couldn't beat out the least talented starters/backups in the league? |
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12-27-20 | Drake -3 v. Indiana State | 81-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Drake is 9-0. The Bulldogs have played seven lined games - and covered every one of them. This is a good matchup for the Bulldogs so I'm going to ride their unbeaten streak. Drake is consistent on both ends of the floor ranking 26th in scoring and 26th in defensive scoring. The Bulldogs also have the eighth-highest field goal percentage in the country. Roman Penn gives them the best point guard on the floor in this matchup. Drake has held its last eight opponents to 67 or fewer points. Indiana State is a perimeter shooting team. The Sycamores, though, are not a good shooting team ranking 255th in field goal percentage and 319th in 3-point shooting. Their defense is even worse. They rank 282th in defensive field goal percentage and 299th in 3-point defense.
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12-26-20 | Pacers -4.5 v. Bulls | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
Maybe the Bulls will be better under their new coach, Billy Donovan. But that time isn't now. Chicago was horrendous in its opening game surrendering 83 points in the first half of a 124-104 home loss to the Hawks. The Bulls are brutal as home 'dogs failing to cover 24 of the past 33 times in that role. Indiana has been very strong as road chalk going 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when favored on the road. The Pacers have reached the playoffs each of the past four seasons. The Bulls last made the postseason in 2017. Nate Bjorkgren had a successful Indiana coaching debut this past Wednesday. The Pacers took care of business with a 121-107 home win against the Knicks. Now Indiana draws another Eastern Conference bottom feeder. I don't see the Bulls doing any better than the Knicks did against the Pacers especially with Victor Oladipo finally appearing fully healthy.
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12-26-20 | Robert Morris +3.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 102-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm not buying Purdue Fort Wayne being better than Robert Brown. The Mastodons have failed to cover the last six times they've been a home favorite and home-court doesn't mean as much this season with limited or no fans in the stands. Robert Morris went 20-14 last season while capturing the NEC championship. The Colonials could have the best player on the court in AJ Bramah, who averages 18.7 points and seven rebounds a game. The Colonials have covered six of the last seven times they've been an underdog.
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12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -107 | 59 h 15 m | Show |
The Cardinals beat the 49ers, 24-20, back in Week 1 when San Francisco was healthy. Now the 49ers are decimated by injuries and demoralized following a 41-33 loss to the Cowboys last week that eliminated them from playoff contention one season after reaching the Super Bowl. Oh, yes, San Francisco is down to third-string QB C.J. Beathard. Care to know the 49ers' record in Beathard's previous 15 appearances, including 11 starts? It's 1-14. The 49ers are well-coached, but they can't overcome probably the highest and most significant injury list in the league. The 49ers have committed multiple turnovers in eight consecutive games due to sloppy quarterback play. San Francisco is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games. All of the defeats have been by at least eight points. It's obvious the 49ers are out of fuel at this late stage. Not so for the 8-6 Cardinals who are battling for a playoff spot. They rank third in the NFL in yards per game and are 13th in total defense. Sparked by Kyler Murray, the Cardinals have produced 30 or more points in six of their last 10 games.
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12-25-20 | Nets -3 v. Celtics | 123-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
I consider the Nets a level higher than Boston given a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant while Boston no longer has Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker is out. Early money in the marketplace agrees as the Nets have been pushed up to this point spread range. It's justified. The Nets are the better team and they want to make an early statement in proof of that. This is their chance being on national TV on Christmas Day. The Nets haven't played on Christmas Day since 2013. This also is Irving's first regular season game against his former team. Brooklyn built a 38-point lead against Golden State in its opener this past Tuesday, winning 125-99. The takeaways from that game were not just Irving and Durant looking good, but that the Nets had 28 fast-break points, seven blocks and 11 steals. The Celtics pulled off a dramatic, 122-121, home win against the defending Eastern Conference champion Bucks this past Wednesday. I see the Nets not just as the more talented team, but also the more motivated. They also have the deeper bench.
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12-24-20 | Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
This has been a college football season like no other. Houston certainly can attest to that. The Cougars had eight games postponed/canceled/rescheduled because of COVID-19. They have played just once since Nov. 14 -and that was a 30-27 loss to Memphis as 7-point road favorites. Originally scheduled to be played in New Mexico, this bowl game is now being played in Frisco, Texas, which is near Dallas. Hawaii is excited to come to the mainland and play. It's only their second bowl game outside of Hawaii in 28 years. Houston isn't nearly as excited. The Cougars could be down up to 20 players because of opt outs, COVID-19 issues and academic ineligibilities. Houston has been particularly hard hit on defense. Sacks leader Payton Turner, tackles leader Grant Stuard and linebacker Terrance Edgeston all are out. Because of this the Cougars shouldn't be double-digit favorites. I don't like the track record of Cougars coach Dana Holgorsen in bowl games. He's 0-6 ATS in his last six bowl games dating back to when he was coaching at West Virginia. Hawaii is from the Mountain West Conference while Houston comes out of the American Athletic Conference. AAC teams went into Wednesday 0-2 in bowl games with Tulane losing as a short favorite to Nevada and Central Florida getting blown out by BYU. Note that Hawaii defeated Nevada, 24-21, on Nov. 28. The Rainbow Warriors don't have the high-powered attack of past seasons. But neither does Houston. The Rainbow Warriors do have a balanced attack and haven't lost the turnover battle in their past five games. |
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12-23-20 | Mavs +1 v. Suns | 102-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
The Suns were great in the bubble to finish last season. But I don't consider them a better team than the Mavericks. Dallas is a very strong road club. The Mavericks won 23 of 37 away games last season. The Mavericks have the superior coach in Rick Carlisle, have better continuity and a deeper roster. This is the Suns' first game with new point guard Chris Paul, and he's not at 100 percent due to an ankle injury. The Suns also won't have injured Dario Saric. |
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12-23-20 | Bucks -3.5 v. Celtics | 121-122 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
The Bucks compiled the best regular season record at 56-17 last season. Milwaukee, though, was taken out in the playoffs by the Heat. So the Bucks and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, armed with a contract extension, are anxious to begin a new season. They were a level higher than Boston last season and could be two levels higher right now given that the Celtics are without Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker. Milwaukee has the stronger bench and firepower as the Celtics don't offer much once you get past Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
I'll take these many points with a much superior Florida Atlantic defense against a Memphis squad that doesn't win bowl games, nor cover games. Memphis has a potent offense. However, Florida Atlantic gives up the ninth-fewest points in the nation and ranks 17th in sacks. Only twice in eight games did the Owls surrender more than 24 points. The Tigers failed to cover in any of the four games they were favored against Division I foes. They scored only 10 points versus Navy and 21 against Tulane in two of their past three games. Memphis has lost straight-up and failed to cover each of the last five years in its bowl games, too. Florida Atlantic has a balanced attack. I don't think the gap is nearly this wide as the point spread indicates. It wouldn't surprise me if the Owls pulled an outright upset. Of Memphis' seven victories, five of them were by a combined eight points. |
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12-23-20 | Northwestern State v. Washington State -16.5 | 52-62 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
Washington State is off to its best start in 13 years opening 7-0. The Cougars are hitting their stride, too, winning by 28 points during each of their last two games. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Northwestern State. The Demons aren't very good - they are 1-9 - and they face a major fatigue issue. This is their fifth road game in six days and third in three days. The Demons have gone against top-ranked Gonzaga each of the last two days. This is Northwestern State's last game until Jan. 2. So it's not inconceivable the Demons mail this one in, or are just plain too tired to effectively compete.
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12-22-20 | Warriors v. Nets -6.5 | Top | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
I see this line closing higher so I'm going to lock in now with the Nets. It's no joke. The Nets are serious contenders to win the Eastern Conference with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant each healthy and an excellent collection of talented role players. Brooklyn looked good in preseason going 2-0 beating the Celtics and Wizards by a combined average of 14 1/2 points. Golden State isn't at Brooklyn's level. Yes, Stephen Curry is back. That's enough to elevate the Warriors into a playoff contender. But that's it. Klay Thompson is out long-term and Draymond Green isn't expected to play in this game due to a foot injury. The Nets have much the stronger bench.
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12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada +2.5 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a bad matchup for Tulane. The Green Wave of New Orleans are making a long journey into cold weather where the temperature is going to be in the 20's and the winds will be flapping at 15-25 mph. Nevada is well familiar with the special blue turf and field conditions in Boise State's home stadium, site of the Potato Bowl. The Wolf Pack have a monster passing edge with Carson Strong, the best quarterback in the Mountain West Conference. He led the conference in completions, completion percentage, TD's and passing yards. Strong has two all-conference receiving targets in wide receiver Romeo Doubs and tight end Cole Turner. The Wolf Pack also have all-conference placekicker Brandon Talton. Tulane could be down three starting defensive linemen with two of its starters definitely ruled out. The Green Wave struggled against strong passing opponents. Central Florida put up 51 points on Tulane while Houston scored 49 points on the Green Wave. The Green Wave are run-oriented, but that's Nevada's defensive strength. Tulane lost its up-and-coming offensive coordinator, Will Hall. He left to become head coach at Southern Mississippi. Tulane's defensive coordinator was fired so the Green Wave are without both of their coordinators.
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12-22-20 | Fairleigh Dickinson +1 v. Fairfield | 69-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Fairleigh Dickinson is playing better on both ends of the court. The Knights also have played a tougher schedule than the Stags, who might not have their full concentration with Christmas break following this game. Fairfield is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Fairleigh Dickinson is averaging 78 points in its last three games after averaging 66.5 points during its first four games. The Knights have forced an average of 13.4 turnovers. |
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12-22-20 | SE Missouri State +13.5 v. Indiana State | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Indiana State is an inconsistent team that is laying too many points here. The Sycamores haven't broken 68 points in each of their last three games. Southeast Missouri State is 2-4. But it's not a stretch to say the Redhawks could be 6-0 as three of their losses occurred in OT and the other was by two points on a last-second basketball. The Redhawks have three good seniors in Chris Harris, Nolan Taylor and Nana Akenten.
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12-21-20 | Murray State -3 v. Austin Peay | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
The teams played against each other two weeks ago and Murray State won, 87-57, as 3 1/2-point home favorites. The Racers have dominated this series winning eight of the past nine times. They are 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings against Austin Peay. Murray State averages 18 more points per game than the Governors. Austin Peay has been one of the worst point spread teams going 2-13-1 ATS the past 16 times, including 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Racers have too much offense again for Austin Peay. The price is cheap to back them. |
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12-20-20 | Weber State -5 v. Portland State | 72-74 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Portland State hosted Weber State two days ago. The results weren't pretty for the Vikings. Weber State buried them, 94-66. Now the teams meet again. So what has changed? Nothing really. Portland State has short revenge and a limited home-court edge. But this isn't nearly enough to offset a 28-point difference. Weber State is said to be much improved offensively this season. The Wildcats have shown that. Discount a tough game against Boise State and the Wildcats are averaging 89 points in their three other games. The Wildcats showed they weren't bothered by Portland State's full-court pressure style. The Vikings are breaking in new players. They aren't as advanced right now as Weber State. They rank 317th in field goal percentage and 327th in 3-point shooting percentage. Weber State isn't likely to win by 28 points again, but the Wildcats should easily cover this number.
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12-20-20 | Texans v. Colts -7 | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 99 h 47 m | Show | |
The Texans' season was really done when Bill O'Brien foolishly gave away DeAndre Hopkins. Deshaun Watson is doing the best he can but he has no ingredients. The Texans are one of the five-worst teams in the NFL. They rank last in rushing and second to last in stopping the run. They also give up the second-most yards. The Colts dominate the trenches in this matchup. Jonathan Taylor and Philip Rivers are in line for huge games. The Texans lost their nose tackle, Brandon Dunn, and are minus their top cornerback, Bradley Roby to suspension. The Texans have allowed 25 TD passes with just three interceptions while surrendering the highest passer rating in the league. The teams met just two weeks ago and the Texans managed to hang in losing, 26-20. Since then the Texans have lost Will Fuller and Roby. Now this game has become far more of a mismatch than this spread shows. I expect Indy to win by double-digits.
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12-20-20 | Seahawks -6 v. Washington Football Team | 20-15 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 53 m | Show | |
Washington's defense has been playing well. But so has Seattle's. The Seahawks' defense has been below the radar giving up just 16.2 points in their last five games. Seattle draws Washington minus Alex Smith and probably without Antonio Gibson. That means Washington is without its top quarterback and best running back. Russell Wilson versus Dwayne Haskins is a monster mismatch. I have far more faith in Wilson and the Seahawks' offense than in Washington's offense especially with Haskins under center.
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12-19-20 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +7 | 46-33 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
Oregon State beat Arizona State at home last season and the Beavers can do it again this season even if their star running back, Jermar Jefferson, can't play because of an ankle injury. It's an added plus if Jefferson can play after suffering the injury last Saturday. The Beavers and UCLA were the only two Pac-12 schools not to have their schedule and routine thrown out of whack because of COVID-19. Oregon State has played six games going 2-4. Note that all but one of those defeats came by six points or fewer. Arizona State is 1-2. The Sun Devils are off a monster win against in-state and Pac-12 rival Arizona, 70-7, last week. That victory left the Sun Devils feeling very smug and satisfied. It puts them in a potential letdown spot. Oregon State has been competitive all season. The Beavers are well-coached by Jonathan Smith. They have covered four of their last five games.
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12-19-20 | St. Joe's +22 v. Villanova | 68-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
I don't see the blowout oddsmakers are predicting. Saint Joseph got a lot of rust off following an 81-77 road loss to Drexel this past Thursday. The Hawks' previous game was way back on Nov. 27. St. Joe's took Auburn to overtime in a loss and was beaten by 22 points on a neutral court by Kansas in its two other games. So the Hawks are battle tested. They have two excellent scorers in Ryan Daly and Taylor Funk. Villanova was supposed to meet Virginia in a huge marquee matchup today in New York City, but that game was canceled because of COVID-19 issues with Virginia. So instead the Wildcats draw nearby Philadelphia foe St. Joe's. This is a huge rivalry game. The game means more for St. Joe's, which is trying to put last season's 6-26 record behind. St. Joe's is coached by Billy Lange, who previously served as associate head coach at Villanova under Wildcats head man Jay Wright. If the Hawks should fall considerably behind late in the game the backdoor should swing open as Wright would not want to embarrass his former assistant by running up a score.
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12-19-20 | Arizona +2.5 v. Stanford | 75-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Death, taxes and Arizona beating Stanford in college basketball. Those are among the few certainties in life. The Wildcats have defeated the Cardinal 20 times in a row! I see the streak reaching 21 consecutive Arizona victories in the series. The Wildcats are a deep team and tough on both ends of the court. Stanford lacks a strong inside presence and is vulnerable on the offensive glass, which is an Arizona strength. The Wildcats rank eighth in the country in offensive rebounding. Stanford has beaten Alabama, North Carolina A&T and Cal State-Northridge. Only the Alabama win was impressive. In their other step-up games, the Cardinal lost to North Carolina and Indiana. Those losses occurred on neutral courts. This game is on a neutral court, too, being played in Santa Cruz instead of Maples Pavilion on the Stanford campus due to COVID-19 restrictions.
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12-19-20 | Eastern Washington -9.5 v. Northern Arizona | 80-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
The records may seem like this would be a competitive game between two Big Sky Conference teams. Eastern Washington is 1-4. Northern Arizona is 0-3. But it's not. It's a complete mismatch where Eastern Washington should blow out Northern Arizona far more than even this double-digit spread indicates. Northern Arizona is one of the worst teams in the country. The Lumberjacks' average loss margin is 34 points! Their closest game was a 24-point loss to UC-Riverside. They rank 338th out of 357 Division I teams in defensive efficiency, according to KemPom.com ratings. Eastern Washington has played a far more difficult schedule. The Eagles lost 71-68 to Washington State, lost 70-67 to Arizona, fell 69-52 to Oregon and lost 80-75 to Saint Mary's. All of those games were on the road. The Eagles covered every one of those matchups except the Oregon one. Look for the Eagles, who were the preseason pick to win the Big Sky Conference, to unleash their frustrations and make a strong statement to hapless Northern Arizona knowing the teams meet again on Saturday.
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12-19-20 | Bills -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 48-19 | Win | 100 | 78 h 18 m | Show |
The Bills are coming together as an elite team with their defense playing much better. Buffalo was very strong defensively the previous three seasons. However the Bills began this year slowly giving up 26.5 points during their first 10 games. But following their Week 11 bye, the Bills have yielded 18.7 points in their last three games. Denver has scored 21 or fewer points in six of Drew Lock's last nine starts. Lock has been picked off 13 times during this span. Josh Allen has turned the corner in this his third NFL season. He has accounted for 35 TD's proving to be both a throwing and running threat. The Broncos are without their best pass rusher, Von Miller, and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary minus their two top cornerbacks, suspended A.J. Bouye, and injured Bryce Callahan. Denver also is without injured cornerback Duke Dawson.
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12-19-20 | Maryland-Baltimore County -3 v. Albany | 65-64 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
UMBC is 4-1 and has covered all five of its games. The Retrievers have looked much better than they did last season. Now they open America East Conference action today against Albany. The Great Danes were 4-20 last season. They have not played yet due to COVID-19 issues. It's difficult to believe Albany is going to be in game shape to take on UMBC having missed so many practices due to constant COVID-19 problems. So this is a very short number to back UMBC.
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12-19-20 | Purdue v. Notre Dame +6.5 | 88-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Notre Dame is one of the most battle-tested teams in the nation. The Irish are 2-3. One of their victories was against Kentucky on the road with three of their defeats occurring to Duke, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Irish are a much better 3-point and free throw shooting team than Purdue. The spot is good, too, for the Irish. They played sloppy in a 75-65 home loss to Duke this past Wednesday. Purdue, on the other hand, is off a satisfying 67-60 home win against Big Ten Conference foe Ohio State this past Wednesday. Note this game is at neutral site Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Irish have the experience, coaching and pride to learn from their Duke loss to come back strong after a poor performance.
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12-18-20 | Nebraska v. Rutgers +6.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -104 | 38 h 33 m | Show |
On the surface this game doesn't hold much interest. Nebraska is 2-5 enduring another disappointing season under Scott Frost. Rutgers is 3-5. But the game actually means something to Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights has never won more than three Big 10 games since joining the conference in 2014. "This Nebraska game is everything," Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. Schiano has done a nice job with the Scarlet Knights. The game means more to them than the Cornhuskers. I also believe Rutgers is the better team. Nebraska averages just 22.4 points. The Cornhuskers have been favored twice - and lost straight-up both times to Illinois and to Minnesota last week. Nebraska has had multiple turnovers in five of its seven games. Rutgers leads the Big 10 in tackles for losses. Rutgers has defeated Michigan State, Purdue and Maryland. All of those wins came on the road, too.
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12-17-20 | Cal-Irvine v. Loyola Marymount -4 | 48-51 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm sure Cal-Irvine will be a strong factor in the Big West Conference again. But right now the Anteaters are struggling. The Anteaters are 2-3 with their two victories coming against non-Division I opponents while all three losses have been to Division I foes in blowout fashion. The Anteaters lost to Pepperdine, 86-72, at a neutral site, lost 77-58 at San Diego State and fell 91-56 on the road to USC. They are 0-3 ATS in their lined games. Loyola Marymount is 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10 points at Gersten Pavillion. Senior forward Eli Scott gives the Lions the best player on the court. I don't see the Anteaters getting right in this road setting against this opponent.
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12-17-20 | St. Joe's +1.5 v. Drexel | 77-81 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Saint Joseph's has better talent than Drexel with Taylor Funk, Ryan Daly and Jack Forrest. Drexel can't match that firepower. Yet Drexel opened the favorite. I understand the Dragons are home. They've played five games, while St. Joe's has played only two games, none since Nov. 27 because of COVID-19 issues. So, yes, there could be a rust issue. But anytime the superior team is getting points I'm highly interested in backing the 'dog. St. Joe's two games were against Auburn and Kansas. The Hawks led Auburn by three with 30 seconds left before losing in overtime. They were hanging in against Kansas until the final 15 minutes. Drexel is coming off a 14-19 season. The Dragons are 3-2, but haven't beaten a team ranked in the top 250 in the KenPom rankings.
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12-15-20 | SE Missouri State +3 v. Evansville | 63-66 | Push | 0 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
Nothing fancy here. Evansville is 1-22 in its last 23 games. I'm going to fade them in this chalk role. The Purple Aces are a low-scoring team. They are 1-3 this season and are learning to get in sync having had two of their games canceled. Southeast Missouri State is the higher scoring team and a much better 3-point shooting team than Evansville. |
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12-15-20 | Longwood +4.5 v. Radford | 53-62 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a rare instance of teams playing each other a second straight day. Radford nipped Longwood, 67-66, on Monday failing to cover as 4 1/2-point favorites. I thought Longwood was the better team then and I still believe that way. Both teams shot 45 percent from the floor. Radord, though, made 20 of 28 free throws while Longwood only got to shoot 10 free throws. Yet the Lancers still only lost by one point and had a chance to win at the end. I don't anticipate Radford having such a large free throw discrepancy this time around. Longwood guard Juan Munoz showed he was the best player on the court scoring 29 points. The Lancers have the stronger bench, which could prove important with this short turnaround. Radford has only one of its top seven scorers from last season back. The announced attendance for last night's game was 250 so there's not much home-court edge for Radford. Longwood has held four of its first five foes to fewer than 70 points. The Lancers have covered seven of their last eight road games, while Radford is 3-8-2 ATS in its past 13 home contests.
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12-15-20 | Buffalo -2.5 v. Miami-OH | 90-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Buffalo has lost some talent, but the Bulls still will have the two best players on the court in Jeenathan Williams and Jayvon Graves. They've combined to average 37 points and 16 rebounds per game. I see the Bulls having too much firepower for Miami of Ohio. The Bulls are tough on the glass and they outscore the RedHawks by eight points per game. Buffalo has major revenge, too, after the RedHawks upset them as 9-point 'dogs in the first round of the Mid-American Conference Tournament last season.
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12-14-20 | Longwood +3.5 v. Radford | Top | 66-67 | Win | 105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
This is the Big South Conference opener for both schools. Longwood is 1-3. Radford is worse at 1-4. I disagree about the Highlanders being favored even though they are home. Radford is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Highlanders have back only one of their top seven scorers from last season. The Lancers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road contests and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 overall games. Longwood has held three of its first four foes to fewer than 70 points. Freshman guard Justin Hill has looked good for the Lancers. His 6.2 assists per game is second-best in the nation for a freshman. He and Juan Munoz give the Lancers a strong backcourt edge.
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12-13-20 | Steelers v. Bills -2.5 | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 103 h 52 m | Show | |
Sparked by Josh Allen, who has accounted for 33 TD's, the Bills have a top-10 offense. Now the Bills' defense is coming around to where it was during the previous three seasons when it was one of the league's best. Buffalo's pass defense has a 7-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in its last six games after giving up 12 TD throws with just two interceptions during the first six games. As the Bills become a more complete team, the Steelers are regressing. This isn't surprising since Pittsburgh had won six games by an average of 4.8 points. The Steelers' ground game has gone from mediocre to one of the worst in the league and their defense has been hit hard by multiple linebacker injuries. Losing Devin Bush and Bud Dupree really hurts their pass coverage. Both teams played on Monday, but the Steelers have to make the journey to upstate New York and will be playing for the third time in 11 days. The Bills defeated the Steelers, 17-10, at Pittsburgh last season and Buffalo is better this season.
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12-13-20 | Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3 | 23-15 | Loss | -120 | 99 h 43 m | Show | |
Fresh off upsetting Pittsburgh, Washington has to travel on a short week and in a rare letdown spot. The 49ers also were in action on Monday, but have a far less journey. San Francisco also has more experience playing in Arizona. Playing there isn't so bad for the 49ers considering they were 1-4 at Levi's Stadium this season. The 49ers are far from full strength, but they are getting healthier each week. San Francisco is extremely well-coached on both sides of the ball and are very familiar with Alex Smith. Washington is likely to be without its best running back, Antonio Gibson. He's dealing with turf toe. This non-division game holds a lot of meaning to Kyle Shanahan. He and his father, Mike, were fired by Washington owners Daniel Synder. The 49ers shut out Washington, 9-0, last season and Kyle Shanahan awarded the game ball from that win to his father.
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12-13-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Raiders | 44-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 31 m | Show | |
The Raiders are the only team that can claim victories against the Chiefs and Saints. But Las Vegas also is capable of losing to any team. The Raiders needed a late long TD pass to nip the winless Jets last week and two weeks ago were blown out by the 4-8 Falcons, 43-6. Derek Carr is the Raiders' focal point if Josh Jacobs remains out with an ankle injury. Carr is having a good season, but I would take the Colts defense over him. The Colts give up the fifth-fewest yards, the third-fewest TD passes and have the fourth-best defensive passer rating. Philip Rivers is not a mobile QB and the Colts have offensive line injuries. But the Raiders are tied for the third-fewest sacks in the NFL with 15. The Raiders are well below average in all of the major defensive categories, including ranking 28th in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points per game. This figure would be even higher if the Raiders didn't hold the Browns to six points in a game heavily impacted by bad weather and gusting winds. I see the Colts as a well-coached, professional team with a good defense that rarely beats itself. The Raiders can't make that claim. They are too undisciplined and inconsistent.
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12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears +1.5 | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 95 h 29 m | Show | |
I'll take the superior Bears defense and home field to trump Deshaun Watson. Only 11 teams have surrendered fewer points than the Bears. The Texans defense ranks 30th in yards and 31st in rushing yards. Chicago's ground attack has picked up the past several weeks with David Montgomery playing well. Mitch Trubisky gives the Bears a mobility factor they didn't have with Nick Foles. Trubisky is turnover-prone, but the Texans have the fewest takeaways in the league. Allen Robinson provides the Bears with the best wide receiver on the field. Watson's numbers go way down when he doesn't have Will Fuller, who is suspended. The Texans also are without Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb, too. Brandin Cooks is the Texans' best receiver left and he's questionable with a concussion. Pass defense is a Bears strength. Watson can't rely on the Texans' last-ranked ground attack.
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12-13-20 | Chiefs -7 v. Dolphins | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 15 m | Show |
Brian Flores is a leading contender to win Coach of the Year honors as somehow the Dolphins are 8-4. But I see them getting exposed here by the Chiefs. Miami's talent level, especially on offense, can't compare to the Chiefs. The Dolphins haven't broken 20 points in their last three games and that's going against the Broncos, Jets and Bengals. They've faced some bad quarterbacks during their last eight games: Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco and C.J. Beathard. Now the Dolphins get Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has won seven in a row. Mahomes' numbers during this win streak are 71.5 percent completions for 2,341 yards and an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa can't keep up. His statistics look better than how he has played. We're not talking about Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow here. The Dolphins lost to the Broncos three weeks ago. Kansas City beat Denver twice winning by an average of 16.5 points. Kansas City has won its last 11 road/neutral site games. The Chiefs have covered 67 percent during the past 19 times they've been chalk. |
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12-13-20 | Massachusetts -3 v. Northeastern | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
These two teams opened their seasons just two days ago facing each other in the front end of a home-and-home series. It was no contest. UMass built a 20-point lead and easily handled Northeastern, 94-79. The Minutemen also defeated Northeastern last season by nine points. Tre Mitchell of UMass was the best player on the court scoring 31 points. The sophomore guard averaged 17.7 points last season. Northeastern is in rebuild mode having lost its two top scorers from last season. The Huskies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Minutemen are ranked 119th in Ken Pomeroy's highly-respected college basketball ratings while the Huskies are placed at 182nd. I see no reason why UMass shouldn't win and cover again in this short turnaround. |
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12-12-20 | Louisiana Tech +21.5 v. TCU | 10-52 | Loss | -108 | 53 h 51 m | Show | |
You can't blame TCU if it doesn't get excited about this matchup. The Horned Frogs are off a huge 29-22 home win against then 15th-ranked Oklahoma State last Saturday. This is their only nonconference matchup of the season. Louisiana Tech is the much fresher team. The Bulldogs have played just once since November and that was last Friday when they defeated North Texas. 42-31, on the road. The Bulldogs can score averaging just under 32 points per game. They are 27-11 ATS the past 38 times as a road 'dog. TCU has not shined as home chalk going 5-21 ATS the last 26 times as a home favorite.
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12-12-20 | Navy v. Army -7 | 0-15 | Win | 100 | 60 h 14 m | Show | |
Many key factors point to Army being the right side, including getting to host this annual rivalry. It's the first time since 1943 the teams aren't facing each other at a neutral site. Along with home field advantage, Army is in much better current form than Navy. The Black Knights are 5-1 in their last six games. Navy has dropped four in a row. These teams are all about running the football. Army exceeds, Navy doesn't. The Black Knights are the No. 3 rushing team in the country. They are No. 1 in rushing TD's with 31.Navy is 109th in run defense. Army ranks 23rd in run defense. The Black Knights have permitted only five rushing TD's. Navy still hasn't settled on a quarterback. The Midshipmen have produced just 13 points in their last two games against Memphis and Tulsa.
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12-12-20 | Utah +1 v. Colorado | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Colorado is a surprising 4-0. But I don't expect to see the Buffaloes remaining unbeaten after this game. Their record is impressive, but their play hasn't been that stellar. Colorado also has caught some lucky breaks. UCLA committed four turnovers against Colorado. Arizona was going with a freshman backup QB making his first start when it played the Buffaloes. Yet Colorado still needed a goal line stand to help hold off the Wildcats. San Diego State was riddled with injuries and had to play at Colorado on short notice and Stanford outscored the Buffaloes in the second half in losing by three points. I'm not impressed with Colorado QB Sam Noyer, who has a 4-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Utes are better in the trenches, especially their run defense which holds foes to 3.6 yards per rush. Ty Jordan is one of the better freshmen running backs in the country and veteran transfer QB Jake Bentley has a strong arm. He can take advantage of Colorado's inconsistent defense. |
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12-12-20 | Michigan State +15.5 v. Penn State | 24-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Don't sleep on Michigan State in this Big Ten rivalry matchup. The Spartans were smashed, 52-12, by Ohio State last week. The Spartans weren't going to win that game even if their QB, Rocky Lombardi, didn't get knocked out. But there is an overcorrection in the line for this game. Penn State isn't very good this season especially on offense. Michigan State still is worthy of respect. Let's not forget the Spartans own a blowout win against Michigan and a victory versus Big 10 West champion Northwestern. I'm fine if Payton Thorne is Michigan State's QB if Lombardi can't go. The Nittany Lions are 2-5. Their victories have come against Michigan and Rutgers. Penn State is averaging a meager 23 points in their last six games. Sean Clifford has endured a terrible season and the Nittany Lions have been without RB Noah Cain and TE Pat Freiermuth. The weapons haven't been there. Penn State has given up 23 sacks and turned the ball over 15 times in its seven games. Michigan State has seven sacks in its last two games.
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12-12-20 | Wofford +3.5 v. South Florida | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Wofford is more than capable of beating South Florida, a below average American Athletic Conference team. Note this game is a neutral site matchup being played in Atlanta. The Terriers are one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation averaging 90.3 points. They rank 18th in scoring and 10th in shooting percentage. Wofford's lone loss in three games occurred on the road to Richmond, 77-72. The Spiders are one of the top mid-major teams in the country. South Florida is 3-2. The Bulls' wins have come against very weak competition - Florida College, Florida Gulf Coast and Stetson - while their losses were in step-up games against Rhode Island and Virginia Tech. South Florida was blown out in both of those games.
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12-12-20 | Florida +3 v. Florida State | 71-83 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
I like getting this many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. This isn't so much a fade on Florida State as it is a play on Florida, which is coming on after having its first three games cancelled because of COVID-19. The Gators are 3-0, including an impressive 90-70 victory against Boston College at a neutral site. The Gators have a star in forward Keyontae Johnson, who was voted the SEC's Preseason Player of the Year. He's averaging 19.7 points and shooting 63.9 percent from the floor. Guard Tre Mann also is playing extremely well for Florida. Florida State has played just twice and only once during the last 10 days. The Seminoles escaped with a 69-67 overtime home victory against Indiana this past Wednesday, failing to cover as 3-point favorites. The Hooisers nearly won despite shooting 37 percent from the floor and missing 11 of 15 3-point shots.
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12-11-20 | Nevada -1.5 v. Grand Canyon | 77-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
So far so good for Grand Canyon and its new coach, Bryce Drew, as the Antelopes are 3-0. But I see the Antelopes taking their first loss here. Nevada has played a far more difficult schedule than Grand Canyon. Among the foes the Wolf Pack have met are San Francisco, North Dakota State, Nebraska and Pacific. The Antelopes have played a Division III school and opponents who are ranked 333th and 377th, which is last, in the KenPom.com ratings. Grand Canyon also figures to be rusty, having not played in 10 days. The Antelopes' home-court edge isn't going to be much either due to limited fan capacity. Grand Canyon's calling card is height. Nevada counters that with a much better 3-point shooting game. Nevada center Warren Washington also has been playing well. The Wolf Pack have experience with four players back from their 19-win team of last season plus transfers. I see an obvious class difference and situational edge here that Grand Canyon's superior height won't be able to overcome. |
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12-10-20 | Cal-Riverside -6.5 v. Northern Arizona | 74-50 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
On the surface we have a Big West Conference team, UC Cal-Riverside, taking on a Big Sky Conference foe, Northern Arizona, on the road. So the game should be close, right, considering we have two small conference teams going at it? I don't see it that way. I believe UC Cal-Riverside is much superior to Northern Arizona and the oddsmaker hasn't caught up to this. Northern Arizona has played only one game. That came four days ago. The Lumberjacks were crushed by Arizona, 96-53, as 23-point road 'dogs. Arizona nearly doubled the 23-point spread shooting 66.7 percent from the floor and making 59.1 percent of its 3-point shots. Riverside is coming off a 20-point road victory against Denver this past Sunday. The Highlanders put up 83 points and made 46.9 percent of their shots from beyond the range. This doesn't bode well for Northern Arizona. UC-Cal Riverside should be able to hurt the Lumberjacks from outside and score inside with center Jock Perry. The Highlanders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games. They have a strong history, too, of covering against weaker opponents going 12-3 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. |
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12-09-20 | Southern Utah -2.5 v. Utah Valley | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
There's a class difference here not reflected in the betting line, which is too short. Southern Utah has won three in a row, including beating Montana twice. The Thunderbirds were underdogs both times. Southern Utah forward Maizen Fausett was named Big Sky Conference Player of the Week. Utah Valley is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when going against above .500 opponents. The Thunderbirds can hurt Utah Valley in transition. Southern Utah dominated Montana in transition. That should be the case in this matchup, too.
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12-09-20 | Furman +4 v. Cincinnati | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
If you go by the highly respected KenPom.com ratings you'll see that Cincinnati is ranked 63rd and Furman right behind the Bearcats at 64. The Paladins are favored to win the Southern Conference. They have played only low-major opponents so far, but the results have been impressive: 4-0 with an average victory margin of 31.2 points. Furman had one of the 100 most efficient offenses in the country last season. The Paladins were among the top 10 best mid-majors in the country. So this isn't going to be an easy opponent for Cincinnati, especially given that the 1-1 Bearcats aren't playing well defensively and don't have a set rotation. This quote from Cincinnati coach John Brannen is telling: "I'm really learning our team," Brannen said following the Bearcats' 77-69 loss to Xavier this past Sunday. "We don't have a rotation yet. Those are things that we're learning." Furman guard Mike Bothwell is playing at a very high level averaging nearly 22 points a game. The Paladins have covered five of their last six road games. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS at home going back to last season and 1-6 ATS after not covering in their previous game. |
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12-08-20 | Green Bay +22.5 v. Marquette | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
Green Bay catches Marquette at a good time. The Golden Eagles are still basking in the glory and satisfaction of defeating fourth-ranked Wisconsin, 67-65, this past Friday night at home. That was Marquette's first victory against a Top 5 program since 2017. So a letdown is very much a possibility for Marquette. The key question is if Green Bay is good enough to cover this large number? The Phoenix are 0-3. But they've played two tough Big Ten teams, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Green Bay was blown out in those games, but showed better in its last game, a two-overtime loss to Eastern Illinois. Green Bay is battle tested enough and given this scheduling break of drawing Marquette fat and happy, I believe the Phoenix can stay within the number. |
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12-07-20 | Northern Arizona +23 v. Arizona | 53-96 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
Northern Arizona is extremely anxious to play. This is the Lumberjacks' first game. They are a slightly above average Big Sky Conference team. I like the spot for the Lumberjacks and believe they have enough talent to cover this large spread. Arizona barely beat another Big Sky team, Eastern Washington, two days ago. The Wildcats won, 70-67, failing to cover as 12 1/2-point home favorites. Arizona is down three of its better players with Kerr Kriisa, Daniel Batcho and Ira Lee all out. Northern Arizona has one of the Big Sky's top players in versatile point guard Cameron Shelton. The Lumberjacks also have an excellent 3-point shooter in Luke Avdalovic and Jay Green, who transferred from UNLV. The Lumberjacks treat this in-state matchup more serious than Arizona. Northern Arizona coach Shane Burcar really wants a good showing. He replaced Jack Murphy last season after Murphy left for Arizona to become the associate head coach under Sean Miller. Certainly the Lumberjacks won't lack motivation going against their former coach. |
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12-06-20 | Seton Hall +3 v. Penn State | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm not convinced Penn State is the better team in this matchup even though Seton Hall is off to a slow start. The Nittany Lions had an easy win against overmatched VMI in their opener and then nipped VCU, 72-69, this past Wednesday on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Penn State failed to cover, though. So going back to last season, the Nittany Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. Seton Hall is 1-3 with a victory against Iona, but losses to Louisville by one point, to Rhode Island on the road and to 21st-ranked Oregon, 83-70, two days ago. The Ducks were blazing in that game hitting 53 percent of their shots from the floor. I envision the Pirates playing with a great deal of urgency. A straight-up victory by the Pirates would not surprise. |
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12-06-20 | Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 133 h 8 m | Show |
The Cardinals are an improving team that is struggling right now held in check the past two weeks by the Seahawks and Patriots, neither of whom's defense can compare to the Rams. Kyler Murray may not be 100 percent. The Rams are the best team in football if you go by yardage, having the largest differential in the league. LA ranks in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories. Aaron Donald is the most disruptive lineman in the NFL and Jalen Ramsey is that rare cornerback who can handle DeAndre Hopkins. LA's balanced offense can control clock and take advantage of a mediocre Arizona defense that has multiple defensive line injuries and is minus its star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. The Rams have owned the Cardinals beating them the past six times going 5-0-1 ATS. Arizona would be 0-4 in its last four home contests if not for a successful Hail Mary against the Bills and an overtime victory against Seattle. Under Sean McVay, the Rams have won 21 of 31 road games going 19-12 (61 percent) ATS. |
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12-06-20 | Cal-Riverside -4.5 v. Denver | 83-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
I like the way Cal-Riverside is playing defense. The Highlanders upset Washington, 57-42, at a neutral site in their last game after losing their opener to Pacific on the road, 66-60. Cal-Riverside already is battle tested at this early stage. The same can not be said for Denver. The Pioneers have played only one game and that was an 82-66 home victory against Regis University, a Division II program. Denver also could be rusty having not played in eight days. |
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12-06-20 | Colts -3 v. Texans | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 58 m | Show | |
Houston had its highlight on Thanksgiving putting the final nail on Matt Patricia's coffin. The Texans are a bad team, two levels lower than the Colts. Indy has a top-10 defense. Deshaun Watson is playing at an elite level, but he doesn't have a reliable ground game even if David Johnson returns and now he has a thin wide receiving group with Will Fuller suspended, Kenny Stills gone and Randall Cobb injured. The Colts have gotten healthier on defense. They are effective and probing rather than flashy on offense. But they have more than enough manpower to handle a Houston defense that ranks 31st in run defense and 30th in total yards. The Texans also are second-to-last in takeaways. |
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12-06-20 | Lions v. Bears -3 | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 48 m | Show | |
Perception seems to be that the Lions are a live 'dog because they finally got rid of Matt Patricia and will play harder under interim coach Darrell Bevell. That remains to be seen. I never thought much of Bevell's play-calling when he was an offensive coordinator. The Bears are home, have owned the Lions and have a far superior defense. The Lions' plight is going to continue to be rough if Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift both remain out. I don't expect either of them to play. They are Matthew Stafford's best wide receiver and running back. Chicago has defeated Detroit five straight times, including 27-23 on the road in Week 1. Mitchell Trubisky plays great against just one opponent - this one. Trubisky has completed 67.5 percent of his throws against the Lions for 1,601 yards and 14 TD passes in six games. The Lions' defense isn't good to begin with and now they'll be minus veteran cornerback Desmond Trufant and run-stuffing nose tackle Danny Shelton. The Bears are more likely to be fired-up than the Lions. Chicago has lost five in a row, including getting buried in embarrassing fashion against the Packers in their last game. Matt Nagy ripped his team after that loss. Because their next three games are against the Texans, Vikings and Jaguars, the Bears still could get into the playoffs. So a hard effort should be forthcoming. Detroit has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times as an underdog. |
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -14 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
The Badgers ended up having two weeks to stew after their upset loss to Northwestern since last week's game against Minnesota was cancelled. Wisconsin is 15-5 ATS following a bye for 75 percent. Wisconsin catches a huge break in that Indiana lost its starting QB, Michael Penix, for the season due to a knee injury suffered last week against Maryland. The Hoosiers' strength was their passing attack. Their ground game had been disappointing until playing the Terps. The Badgers give up the fewest yards in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in run defense. Only two teams allow fewer points per game than Wisconsin, which has held its opponents to an average of 11.7 per game. I don't see the Hoosiers being able to dent Wisconsin's defense with a backup QB and mediocre ground attack. The Hoosiers have thrived on takeaways coming up with 18, including a nation-best 16 interceptions. Wisconsin is a ground-and-pound team, though, with its best quarterback prospect, Graham Mertz, in a long time. Mertz is back healthy and because of his passing skills, the Hooisers won't be able to stack the line, or play their safeties in the box to load up on the run.
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12-05-20 | Tulsa v. Navy +12.5 | 19-6 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
Tulsa struggles to win by margins with just one victory coming by more than eight points. I can see home 'dog Navy hanging in especially given the weather conditions in Annapolis. Rain and heavy winds, which could turn into gusts, have caused this total to be lowered. Points are more at a premium now. The bad weather is much better for Navy, too. The Midshipmen are heavily ground-oriented while Tulsa is a passing team operating from the spread. Navy held high-powered Memphis to 10 points in its last game. Memphis averages 33 points on the season. Tulsa is 0-5 lifetime against Navy in AAC league play. Navy beat the Golden Hurricane, 45-17, last season. Navy does have Army on deck. That's one of college football's biggest rivalries. Still, Navy has plenty of incentive for this game. It's Senior Day with 26 Navy seniors playing in their final home game. The Midshipmen have won an extraordinary 17 straight games on their Senior Day.
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12-04-20 | Oregon v. Seton Hall +3 | Top | 83-70 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Oregon may have the higher ceiling, but right now these teams are very even. I consider this a pick''em type game so I'll gladly accept points with the underdog Pirates. This game is at neutral site Omaha, Neb. The Pirates have covered a highly impressive 81 percent of their last 22 neutral site games. Due to COVID-19 issues, Oregon has been able to play only one game. The Ducks' opener against Eastern Washington was postponed. Oregon is breaking in four new starters. The Ducks are without Will Richardson, one of their best players. He's out with a thumb injury. So Oregon really needs to get into action. Seton Hall already is battle tested. The Pirates defeated Iona, but lost 71-70 to Louisville as a 5-point 'dog and fell 76-63 to Rhode Island.
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12-04-20 | South Alabama +10 v. Auburn | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
South Alabama hung in against Auburn last season losing, 70-69, as seven-point home 'dogs. Right now Auburn isn't nearly as good as it was last season yet the spread is double-digits, which is too high even given that the Tigers are home. This game means more to South Alabama than it does to Auburn and the Jaguars draw the Tigers at a good time. Auburn is feeling its way around after losing its top six scorers from last season. The Tigers brought in point guard Sharife Cooper, a five-star recruit. But Cooper has eligibility issues and has yet to play. The result has been chaos, turnovers and uncertainty at point guard. The Tigers haven't been shooting well, nor converting their free throws. They are extremely young with no seniors and just three juniors. South Alabama is 3-1 and playing with confidence. I see the Jaguars hanging in just like last season.
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12-03-20 | Montana +1 v. Southern Utah | 63-64 | Push | 0 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Montana hadn't played in 266 days until meeting USC this past Saturday. The Grizzlies were rusty in the first half, but outscored the Trojans by five during the second half in a 76-62 loss. There's no shame in losing to the unbeaten Trojans, who dealt BYU its first loss of the season. Now the Grizzlies step down in class to face Southern Utah, which just got through playing some school named St. Katherine. So the Thunderbirds are in the opposite situation stepping up in class. Southern Utah hasn't been good at home failing to cover 11 of the past 14 times.
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12-03-20 | Louisiana Tech +2 v. North Texas | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech currently is a slight road underdog to North Texas. But the Bulldogs shouldn't be. They have had four weeks to prepare and catch North Texas down in the dumps following a demoralizing 49-17 road loss to Texas San Antonio, probably the Mean Green's biggest Conference USA rival. Louisiana Tech is a dangerous 4-3 team with two of its defeats coming to Top 15 teams Marshall and BYU and the other defeat coming to Texas San Antonio, 27-26. The Bulldogs haven't played in the last four weeks. But the rust factor is more than offset by being fresh, having good practices and deep preparation for North Texas. The Mean Green, on the other hand, are playing on just five day's rest. Louisiana Tech is averaging better than 30 points per game and has some excellent skill position talent, including wide receiver Smoke Harris and running back Israel Tucker. They can take advantage of a Mean Green defense that ranks last in Conference USA in scoring defense giving up 41 points a game and also is at the bottom in rush defense and pass defense. The Bulldogs buried North Texas, 52-17, last season. North Texas has covered just four of its last 14 home contests and is a dreadful 1-11 ATS versus above .500 opponents. |
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12-02-20 | Tennessee Tech +23 v. Xavier | 48-79 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Tennessee Tech has some size and athleticism. The Golden Eagles play a lot of man-to-man, half-court defense, which Xavier hasn't seen too much. Keishawn Davidson is a good player. But most of this handicap to underdog Tennessee Tech is a play against Xavier. The Musketeers are 4-0, but haven't been playing well. Their last three victories against Bradley, Toledo and Eastern Kentucky have been by a combined seven points, including nipping Eastern Kentucky, 99-96 in overtime, on Monday. This marks Xavier's fifth game in seven days. The Musketeers have a rivalry game against Cincinnati on deck. The Musketeers are 0-6 ATS following a victory. Tennessee Tech is 0-2 and averages just 56.5 points. The Golden Eagles are 316th in KenPom.com's rating compared to Xavier's being 65th. But given the situation and Xavier not playing up to its capability yet, I'll accept this many points.
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12-02-20 | St. John's v. BYU -1 | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
I want BYU going for me after the Cougars were upset and smashed by USC, 79-53, on Monday in the Legends Classic opener in the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. St. John's had to work very hard to get past Boston College, 97-93, on Monday in its Legends Classic opener. St. John's is 3-0 with victories against St. Peter's, LaSalle and Boston College. The Johnnies pulled out a 76-75 win against St. Peter's by rallying for four points with 17 seconds left. St. John's was 10 1/2-point favorites in that game. BYU was 3-0 until falling to USC. The Cougars are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. But they were ice cold against the Trojans shooting 23 percent from beyond the arc and 27 percent from the field. I expect the Cougars to bounce back. They are 6-0 ATS following a loss. BYU won its first three games by an average of 33 points. St. John's ranks 203rd in 3-point defense. The Johnnies also are breaking in a new point guard. Along with their ability to hit 3-pointers, the Cougars have size and depth, which is key with both teams playing without rest.
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12-01-20 | Kentucky v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 62-65 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
Both teams are replacing key players. But Kansas' rebuild job is further along and far less daunting than Kentucky's. The Wildcats are likely to get better as the season progresses, but right now they are extremely inexperienced and not ready for an opponent the caliber of Kansas. Kentucky, starting four freshmen, was exposed by Richmond two days ago losing, 76-64, as 6 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats were 0-for-10 from 3-point range and committed 21 turnovers. Keion Brooks Jr. is Kentucky's only returning starter and he has a leg injury. The Wildcats have missed 18 of 26 3-pointers on the season. Kansas had a good test in its opener falling, 102-90, to top-ranked Gonzaga. The Jayhawks rebounded to beat Saint Joseph's, 94-72, this past Friday. Kansas showed good depth in that game. Christian Braun and redshirt freshman point guard Dajuan Harris were sharp in that game. The Jayhawk are ahead of the Wildcats right now. Kansas has shown offensive efficiency while Kentucky's defense and outside shooting have not been impressive.
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12-01-20 | North Carolina A&T +4 v. Charleston Southern | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
Charleston Southern has been one of the worst point spread teams going back to last season failing to cover in 9 of its last 10 games. Minus their top player, injured Phlandrous Fleming Jr., the Buccaneers have averaged only 55.5 points in losing and failing to cover during their first two games getting blown out by NC State and Eastern Kentucky. Fleming isn't expected to play here. But Kameron Langley is. He's North Carolina A&T's top player and maybe the best player in the Mid-East Athletic Conference. Langley and fellow seniors Tyrone Lyons and Blake Harris provide plenty of experience, scoring and assists for the Aggies. Langley is one of the top assist guys in the country. Charleston Southern hasn't done anything. The Buccaneers could have problems with Langley setting a fast tempo and with the Aggies' press. So I don't see the Buccaneers being favored even being at home.
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11-30-20 | Stanford v. Alabama -2 | 82-64 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
I know Alabama can produce points. I'm not so sure about Stanford. The Cardinal ranked 228th in scoring last season averaging 69.5. They are not a good free throw shooting team and no longer have Tyrell Terry, who was a second round draft pick of the Dallas Mavericks. This is Stanford's first game of the season. Alabama showed some defense in its opener, defeating Jacksonville State, 81-57, at home this past Wednesday covering as 21-point favorites. The Crimson Tide got some of the kinks out. I'm looking for them to play better in this step-up game. Note this matchup is being played in a downtown arena in Asheville, N.C. after the Maui Invitational was relocated. That's a plus for Alabama, the southern school. Stanford is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 neutral site matchups.
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11-29-20 | Bears v. Packers -9 | 25-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
I want the Packers off a loss where they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS under Matt Lafleur. Aaron Rodgers hasn't lost to the Bears at home when he's started and finished a game since 2015. Green Bay averages 30.8 points, third-highest in the NFL. The Bears entered their break last week averaging fewer than 16 points during their last four games. They are either last or second from the bottom in scoring, total yards and rushing yards., Chicago has a patchwork offensive line and just one weapon, Allen Robinson. The Packers can limit Robinson with shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. Mitch Trubisky is great against the Lions. He's lousy against every other team. The Bears already have given up on Trubisky. He's back because Nick Foles is hurt and has been equally ineffective. The Bears also are 0-6 SU and ATS following a bye.
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11-29-20 | Virginia Tech v. South Florida +8.5 | 76-58 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
South Florida is a borderline postseason contender with a defensive-minded backcourt and size up front. The Bulls didn't shoot well on Saturday and lost, 84-68, to Rhode Island in the Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-off at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. No fans were in attendance. So it's easy to overlook South Florida when it takes on 2-0 Virginia Tech today. The 2-0 Hokies are coming off a huge, 81-73, overtime upset victory against third-ranked Villanova in the tournament. Virginia Tech was supposed to have played Temple. But the Owls had to drop out due to COVID-19 issues. So the Hokies may not have their full focus after that huge and unexpected victory against such a power. South Florida coach Brian Gregory knows Virginia Tech, an ACC team, from having coached against them when he was the head man at Georgia Tech.
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11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
Given New Orleans being down Drew Brees, the Buccaneers could be the most complete team in the NFC. They have the defense to slow down the Chiefs' high-powered offense and a passing attack that can take advantage of a Kansas City secondary that in its last two games versus the Raiders and Panthers allowed 74.1 percent completions, 8.3 YPA, a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while coming up with just two sacks in 83 dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. Tom Brady spearheads a much more dangerous passing attack than those two teams. Brady could have the top wide receiving trio in the league with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. They are getting in sync more each week. It's a bad spot, too, for the Chiefs. The Buccaneers are home with much to prove after big game home losses to the Saints and Rams. The Chiefs are in a division sandwich having just gotten satisfying revenge on the Raiders and hosting the Broncos next week.
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11-29-20 | Browns -7 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
The Browns don't have to do much here versus such an undermanned opponent. Baker Mayfield can just hand the ball off to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, while easily picking his spots against a dead Jacksonville team that is staggering with injuries. Jacksonville gives up the second-most yards per game in the NFL and yields nearly 30 points per contest. If not for a fluke victory against the Colts at home opening week, in which they were totally outplayed statistically, the Jaguars would be winless and ranking among the worst teams of all time. They haven't won since Week 1 with six of their defeats occurring by at least eight points. And now the Jaguars have to deal with their longest injury list. Jacksonville had one decent pass rusher, Josh Allen. He's out. The Jaguars have a cluster injury problem in the secondary down their three top cornerbacks. On offense, the Jaguars will be minus their top wide receiver, D.J. Chark, plus their best lineman, guard Andrew Norwell. Jake Luton proved to be as terrible as expected. So now the Jaguars turn to their third-string QB journeyman stiff Mike Glennon. Cleveland doesn't need Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward to take advantage of Glennon's lack of downfield throwing skills and no mobility.
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11-28-20 | Eastern Washington +4 v. Washington State | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
Eastern Washington is very eager to play after its opener against Oregon was cancelled. The Eagles have the speed and perimeter shooting to pull the outright upset. Washington State is a young rebuilding team that went 6-12 in the Pac-12 last season. The Cougars are improving, but I don't rate them better than Eastern Washington, which won the Big Sky Conference last season and is picked by many to repeat. The Eagles likely were going to the NCAA Tournament before the season was cancelled. Washington State didn't look sharp in its opener this past Wednesday. The Cougars trailed at halftime before getting past Texas Souther, 56-52, as 12-point home favorites. |
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11-28-20 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State -10.5 | 44-50 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
I want to fade a punchless Texas Tech offense against Oklahoma State, which is in a foul mood after getting blown out by rival Oklahoma last week. The Cowboys still harbor Big 12 title hopes, have many huge defensive edges and are much superior in the skill positions. The Red Raiders have lost and failed to cover in all three of their road games, all versus Big 12 foes and all by double-digits. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. Oklahoma State gives up nearly 18 fewer points per game than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have only reached 400 yards once in their last five games. They aren't going to be able to hang close to Oklahoma State.
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11-28-20 | Kent State v. Buffalo -7 | 41-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Both teams are 3-0. But Buffalo is the elite team of the Mid-American Conference. The Bulls are 9-1 going back to last season. Their lone loss? It came to Kent State on the road last season and it came in shocking fashion with the Bulls blowing a 21-point lead with eight minutes to play. The Golden Flashes came up with a recovered onside kick and blocked punt to set up that improbable victory. The well-coached Bulls haven't forgotten. Buffalo has excellent skill position talent in QB Kyle Van Treese and running back James Patterson, who is coming off a 301-yard rushing, 4-TD wipeout of Bowling Green. The Bulls won that game, 42-17, but didn't manage to cover the large point spread. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games, however. Buffalo also has a strong defense holding foes to 19 points per game, which rates 15th in the nation. Kent has been a nice story this season, but the unbeaten Golden Flashes have played an easy schedule. This includes wins against the two worst MAC teams, Bowling Green and Akron. Buffalo is the stronger team and has monster revenge. |
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11-27-20 | Mercer +13 v. Georgia Tech | 83-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech is coming off a tough, 123-120, four-overtime loss to Georgia State in its opening game two days ago. The Yellow Jackets better not sleep on this opponent, or they could be in trouble. Mercer has just a 15-minute drive so this isn't much of a road trip. The Bears are going to be taking this neighborhood matchup very serious, probably more so than Georgia Tech. This is the first meeting between the teams since 2011. Mercer easily beat North Georgia, 79-48, on Wednesday. A key for the Bears is the return of senior sharpshooter Ross Cummings, who missed much of last season due to a foot injury. Cummings could finish as Mercer's all-time leader in 3-pointers made. The Bears finished last season with an above .500 record in true road games. They dealt East Tennessee State its lone home loss last season with a 16-point win. Mercer has covered six of its past seven away games.
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11-27-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock +3 v. NC-Greensboro | 70-77 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
These are a pair of good teams from small conferences. The game is being played in neutral site Louisville as part of the Wade Houston Classic tournament. Arkansas Little Rock has the advantage of already having played. The Trojans downed Prairie View A&M, 71-66, on Wednesday. NC Greensboro not only hasn't played yet, but the Spartans weren't even able to have any preseason scrimmages against outside competition. I don't see the Spartans being the superior team, so I'll accept these points and back Arkansas Little Rock.
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 48 m | Show |
The Irish can't afford to slip up here in their hopes of reaching the national title game. And they shouldn't because they are much too balanced for North Carolina. Both teams have outstanding offenses. But North Carolina is much more vulnerable on defense especially when stopping the run. The Tar Heels also come up with very few takeaways. Notre Dame ranks fourth against the run and are in the top 11 in total defense and scoring defense - and that's after playing Clemson. The Irish have scored 40 or more points in five of their eight games, while holding foes under 14 points five times. The Tar Heels can't match that. I don't see Sam Howell being so effective when the Irish take away North Carolina's ground attack. The Irish have covered the last six times they've been favored by a touchdown or less.
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11-26-20 | Utah State v. South Dakota State +2.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Utah State lost, 85-69, to Virginia Commonweath as a short favorite on Wednesday in its first round game in the Crosscover Classic in Sioux Falls, S.D. It was the fourth straight time the Aggies have failed to cover laying points. Utah State has a lot of inexperience this season. Aggies coach Craig Smith is using the early part of the season to experiment and get playing time for his inexperienced team of which nine members enter the season having never played a minute for the Aggies. So there is a huge unknown quality to Utah State. Not so with South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits have been one of the best spread teams in the country covering 20 of their last 26, including losing 79-71, to West Virginia as 11-point 'dogs in their first game of the tournament on Wednesday. The Jackrabbits were hanging tough trailing by four points during the second half, but could not get closer. They have covered six of the last eight times as a 'dog.
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11-25-20 | Eastern Illinois +19.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Wisconsin should be very good again this season returning nearly its entire rotation from its 21-10 team of last season. The Badgers, though, needed a late 15-0 run to beat Eastern Illinois, 65-52, last season. The Panthers had kept the game close trailing by just 46-43 with less than nine minutes remaining. Eastern Illinois went 17-15 last season and returns its top seven scorers, including Josiah Wallace. He was the fifth-leading scorer in the Ohio Valley Conference last season averaging 19.6 points. |
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11-25-20 | Cal-Irvine +2 v. Pepperdine | 72-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
UC Irvine has a front-court edge, is the stronger defensive team and is much better coached with Russell Turner against Pepperdine's Lorenzo Romar. The Anteaters had a strong chance to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year before the season was cancelled going 21-11. Pepperdine is a mediocre West Coast Conference team that went 16-16 and had one of the worst defenses in the country.
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11-25-20 | Toledo v. Bradley -3 | 59-61 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Bradley won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last season and has good depth this season. The Braves haven't had to endure a full COVID-19 quarantine like Toledo did. The Braves beat the Rockets, 78-66, last season. Bradley coach Brian Wardle knows Toledo coach Tod Kowalcyk having served five seasons under him at Green Bay. So playing Toledo has extra meaning for Bradley. |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 88 h 31 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes alone is enough to be confident in the Chiefs beating the Raiders by more than a TD. Mahomes is firmly in the MVP discussion with a 25-to-1 TD-to-interception ratio. Mahomes has accounted for 15 touchdowns in five career games against the Raiders and their defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther. The Raiders are among the bottom-four in sacks, sack ratio and quarterback hit rate. So Mahomes is going to have time to operate. If you throw out a heavy wind game against the Browns, the Raiders have given up more than 30 points per game during their last six games. But, wait, there is more. The Chiefs have monster revenge. The Raiders dealt them their lone loss. Kansas City also is off its bye. No coach is better with an extra week during the regular season than Andy Reid, who is 18-3 in this role. The Chiefs' defense has been playing better allowing 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games. The Raiders were missing three starting offensive linemen in their last game and their defense is dealing with COVID protocols with seven players affected, including safety Jonathan Abram.
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11-22-20 | Dolphins v. Broncos +3.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 83 h 18 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are a nice story this season exceeding expectations so far with a 6-3 record. But they are not some elite team and find themselves in a tough situational spot. Miami traveled to Arizona and nipped the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Dolphins beat the Chargers at home last Sunday and now must go on another long flight. This time into high altitude and colder weather. The 3-6 Broncos actually give up fewer yards per game and average more yards per game than the Dolphins. The problem for Denver has been a league-high 21 turnovers. Protect the ball and the Broncos should win. I'm expecting Drew Lock to play, but if he doesn't I'm fine with backup Brett Rypien, who was the quarterback when Denver beat the Jets, 37-28, on Oct. 1. I understand the Dolphins aren't the Jets. But I'm fine if Rypien plays instead of Lock.
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11-22-20 | Eagles +3.5 v. Browns | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 20 m | Show | |
As disappointing as the Eagles have been this season, they are in first place in the bogus NFC East Division. So they certainly are not raising up the white flag. I expect improvement from the Eagles now that they are finally healthy on offense. If you subtract the two heavy-wind games the Browns were involved in against the Raiders and Texas, Cleveland would be giving up 31.6 points a game. The Browns have a banged-up offensive line and right tackle Jack Conklin is dealing with COVID-19 issues. A comparison can be made because each team has played the Ravens and Steelers. The Eagles lost by nine at the Steelers after trailing by just two points with less than four minutes and they were edged by the Ravens, 30-28, after missing a two-point conversion with less than two minutes left. By contrast, the Browns were crushed 38-6 by the Ravens and blown out 38-7 by the Steelers.
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11-21-20 | Florida International +7.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Florida International's 0-4 record is a bit deceiving and Western Kentucky can't score. The Hilltoppers are near the bottom in college football in points and yards per game. They are averaging 11.6 points in their last six games and haven't scored more than 24 points in a game all season. The Panthers nearly upset 21st-ranked Liberty, losing 36-34 on the road. They were impacted by COVID-19, but are coming out of that now. Western Kentucky hasn't won a game by more than 3 points all season. The Hilltoppers are 5-17-1 ATS the past 23 times when laying points and have covered just 20 percent of their past 11 games going 2-8-1 ATS. Florida International, on the other hand, has covered 12 of the last 17 times it has been a 'dog.
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11-20-20 | Syracuse +20 v. Louisville | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
I'll take nearly 3 TD's against a Louisville team that is 2-6 and has lost six of its last seven games. The Cardinals are without their star running back Javian Hawkins, who opted out of the season, and could be minus their star wide receiver, Tutu Atwell, too. He's questionable due to injury. Syracuse isn't good either. But the Orange will be at full strength for the first time in a month. That will aid their rotation depth. They also are off a bye, which will help freshman QB JaCobian Morgan. Syracuse hung in against Boston College in its last game, losing 16-13 as 14 1/2-point 'dogs. Morgan was 19-of-30 for 188 yards and a TD in that game. If there's one thing Syracuse does well it is come up with takeaways forcing 17. That ranks second nationally. Louisville, by contrast, has committed 18 turnovers. Only three teams have lost the ball more.
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 40 h 27 m | Show |
The Cardinals are riding high after pulling out a 32-30 home win against the Bills this past Sunday on a 43-yard TD pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins with two seconds left. The Seahawks are at low ebb having lost three of their past four games, including the last two. Now, though, is the time to buy low on Seattle and fade Arizona in this spot. The Cardinals have to travel on a short week still basking in their near-miracle victory against the Bills. Arizona exerted a ton of energy in that game coming back from a 23-9 deficit midway through the third quarter. Fans won't be permitted into the stadium, but Seattle still is in a highly favorable situation not having to lose a day of practice to travel and in short revenge. The Cardinals nipped the Seahawks, 37-34, in overtime on Oct. 25. The Cardinals tied the game on a 44-yard field goal as time expired to force the OT. Russell Wilson threw three interceptions yet the Seahawks still should have won that game outgaining Arizona and controlling the clock for nearly 10 more minutes than the Cardinals. Seattle didn't have superstar safety Jamal Adams, nor pass rusher Carlos Dunlap, in that game either. The Seahawks haven't lost three straight regular season games in nine years. They have covered 68 percent of their last 51 games following a loss. The Seahawks have a history of being very tough in nationally televised games with the best record in the NFL in primetime games since Carroll took over Seattle in 2010. |
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11-15-20 | Ravens -7 v. Patriots | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 137 h 10 m | Show | |
The Patriots lack talent and there is nothing Bill Belichick can do about it. The Patriots haven't been this bad in nearly 20 years. They barely managed to beat the Jets. Before that victory, New England was averaging 12.2 points in its last four games. Cam Newton is devoid of weapons and New England's defense is worse than perceived. Washed-up Joe Flacco threw for 262 yards and 3 TD's against the Patriots this past Monday. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL averaging 170 yards on the ground. The Patriots rank 25th in run defense. Baltimore has won its last 10 road games going 7-2-1 ATS. The Ravens, though, have never won at New England in five regular-season meetings. This is their opportunity and I look for a lot of pent-up frustration from the Ravens to be unleashed against the for-once overmatched Patriots.
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11-15-20 | Bengals +7.5 v. Steelers | 10-36 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 20 m | Show | |
Bengals plus 8 at Steelers I like the Bengals to hang within a touchdown of the Steelers whether Ben Roethlisberger plays or not. I'm locking in now because the number will shrink if Roethlisberger is not cleared to play, which would mean Mason Rudolph under center and a far more conservative Pittsburgh game plan. Rudolph is a stiff and Roethlisberger wouldn't have the benefit of any practice this week. Cincinnati gives up a lot of yardage, but their scoring defense isn't that far below average ranking 20th giving up 26.8 points per game. Cincinnati has scored 27 or more points in five of its last seven games. Expectations were set high for Joe Burrow - and he's surpassed them. I don't expect Joe Mixon back yet, but he's only had one really good game. A hidden key for the Bengals has been the tremendous kicking of veteran journeyman Randy Bullock, who is 18-for-20 in field goals and perfect on 20 extra point kicks. Only once have the Bengals lost by more than five points this season. They are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times as a road underdog. |
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11-15-20 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -114 | 124 h 15 m | Show |
The Eagles started to get healthier before their bye last week and now could have Miles Sanders and right tackle Lane Johnson joining left tackle Jason Peters, Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor, who all recently returned from injuries. Daniel Jones is 6-16 as a starter with 36 turnovers. It's not close between him and Carson Wentz, who threw 3 TD passes when the Eagles beat the Giants, 22-21, three weeks ago. That was the eighth straight time the Eagles have defeated the Giants. The short point spread does not accurately reflect how much superior the Eagles are to the Giants, whose only two victories have been against Washington.
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11-14-20 | Arkansas +18 v. Florida | 35-63 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 15 m | Show | |
Florida is vulnerable this week. The Gators are coming off a huge victory against Georgia and taking on a much improved and opportunistic Arkansas squad. The Gators halted a three-game losing streak to Georgia with a 44-28 victory last week. It's going to be difficult for Florida to get up for the Razorbacks. The well-coached Razorbacks have been underdogs in each of their six games this season. They have covered every time, including posting three straight-up wins. Florida QB Kyle Trask is having a huge season. Arkansas, though, has a tremendous pass defense. Only once have the Razorbacks yielded 300 passing yards. Arkansas has picked off 12 passes and is plus 8 in turnover margin. Florida has turned the ball over at least once every game. Feleipe Franks was Florida's QB before coming to Arkansas. Franks has been solid, connecting on 67 percent of his throws with 14 TD's. He certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team. |
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11-14-20 | Baylor +1 v. Texas Tech | 23-24 | Push | 0 | 36 h 12 m | Show | |
Baylor has found a team it can beat - Texas Tech. The Bears have the much superior defense and Texas Tech is the one team they can run on. The Red Raiders are surrendering 40.1 points per game and rank 107th in yards allowed per game. Their defense is the worst in the Big 12. The Bears rank third in the Big 12 in pass defense. Texas Tech hasn't had a 300-yard passing game in its last five games. The Red Raiders have scored 21 or fewer points in three of their last five games.
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11-14-20 | Notre Dame v. Boston College +14 | Top | 45-31 | Push | 0 | 106 h 5 m | Show |
This is the mother of all letdown spots for Notre Dame and I'm going to take advantage of it by grabbing two TD's with home underdog Boston College. The Irish are still celebrating Brian Kelly's first win against a top-five program with their 47-40 double overtime win against Clemson this past Saturday. Boston College is good enough to pull the outright upset. The Eagles lost by just six points on the road to Clemson. They have been a tremendous underdog going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times in that role, including covering the past five times at home. BC coach Jeff Hafley has improved the Eagles defense making it respectable, while Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jurkovec has a big arm, is athletic and can run. The Eagles aren't lacking in skill position talent with Jurkovec, Zay Flowers, David Bailey and Hunter Long. Boston College is going to treat this game like a Holy War taking the matchup much more serious than Notre Dame.
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11-14-20 | Penn State -3 v. Nebraska | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
Something has to give between these two winless and disappointing Big Ten teams. Penn State hasn't had a losing season since 2004. The Nittany Lions have suffered two of their losses to much-improved Indiana and powerful Ohio State. They are more talented than Nebraska. Sean Clifford is one of the better QB's in the Big 10 and Penn State's run defense and pass rush have been there. The team has been hurt by turnovers. Nebraska has managed only 30 points in its losses to Ohio State and Northwestern. QB Adrian Martinez keeps sadly regressing. The Cornhuskers lack a downfield passing game and their running attack isn't strong enough to offset that. The Cornhuskers have failed to cover in 9 of their last 11 (18 percent) Big Ten games and are 6-18-2 ATS in their past 26 home games.
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11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
I trust Minnesota's offense. The Gophers have outstanding skill position talent with Mohamed Ibrahim, who leads the Big Ten in rushing, Rashod Bateman - who is in the argument for being the best wide receiver in the Big Ten - and QB Tanner Morgan. Minnesota has produced 85 points in its last two games, both on the road against Maryland and Illinois. Now the Gophers get Iowa at home in a major rivalry matchup with the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy at stake. Personally, I feel the loser of this game should own the hardware since it's a trophy of a pig. But these teams really care about owning the trophy. Iowa is coming off a 49-7 blowout of Michigan State. But I don't trust Iowa's offense the way I do Minnesota's. Michigan State is down this season. Minnesota's defense can handle Iowa QB Spencer Petras, who is completing just 54 percent and has a 2-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Petras isn't a running threat like other QB's Minnesota has faced and had trouble containing. He's also not an accurate enough passer to keep up with the Gophers' high-powered attack.
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11-12-20 | Colts +1 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
If you're judging this matchup just by skill position talent it's no contest. The Titans easily have the three best players in this area with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. So why then is this game a pick'em given the Titans' skill position edge and being the home team on a short week? It's because the Colts own the far superior defense, have a better offensive line and have the advantage on special teams. These edges outweigh the Titans' skill position players and put me on the Colts. Tremendous credit goes to the Colts for building a defense that ranks No. 1 in total yards giving up 290 yards per game and the third-fewest points at 20 per game. Indy also ranks No. 3 in run defense. Henry hasn't faced the Colts since they upgraded an already good defensive line with DeForest Buckner. I also rate Darius Leonard as the best linebacker in the league. Tannehill is better than Philip Rivers, but he's not an elite quarterback and he won't be that effective with play-action if Henry isn't churning out yards. The Bears held the Titans to 4.1 yards per play last Sunday. The Colts' defense is rated higher and their offense is better than the Bears. Indy's run defense surrenders just 3.3 yards per carry. The Titans are without their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Taylor Lewan. Guard Rodger Saffold might be Tennessee's second-best offensive lineman and he's questionable with a shoulder injury. The Colts' offense doesn't scare anyone with Philip Rivers in his NFL dotage. But Indy has produced points when going against non-elite defense such as the Titans averaging 34 points against the Lions, Bengals, Jets and Vikings. Rivers is playing better, producing two of his three highest passer ratings during the past three games with six TD passes during this span. T.Y. Hilton, the Colts' top wide receiver, is expected to play. The Titans rank 25th defensively giving up more than 100 yards per game than Indianapolis. Tennessee allows opponents to convert on 55.4 percent of their third downs, which is the worst figure in the NFL. That mark was even higher, but the Titans held the woeful Bears offense to 2-of-15 on third down. Then there's the kicking game. It favors Indy. Colts rookie Rodrigo Blankenship has come through making 17 of 19 field goals. By contrast, Titans place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski has the worst mark in the league for field goal accuracy making just 11 of 18. Field position always is important and the Titans won't have their All-Pro punter Brett Kern. He missed his first game since 2009 last week with a wrist injury, ending a string of 180 straight games. Kern has the seventh-highest punting average in the league. Kern also is the Titans' holder on extra points and field goals. Ryan Allen replaced Kern against the Bears and did an excellent job punting. But can he do it again? He's not a sure, reliable entity like Kern.
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11-11-20 | Toledo +3 v. Western Michigan | Top | 38-41 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
Both Toledo and Western Michigan looked great in its opening-week Mid-American Conference victories last week. But I'm not putting much stock into those wins because they were layups against horrible opponents, Bowling Green for Toledo and Akron for Western Michigan. What I am putting stock in is Toledo's recent history against Western Michigan, the Broncos holding less of a home field advantage than perceived and Rockets' redemption from last year's disappointing season. The Rockets finished 6-6 last season, their worst mark since 2009. They weren't invited to a bowl game. I'm expecting that to change this season. The Rockets have a healthy QB in Eli Peters and a pair of quality senior running backs, Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour. Toledo has experience in the defensive line and secondary. I like the Rockets' talent on both sides of the ball. Western Michigan had to replace its starting QB and also lost MAC Offensive Player of the Year running back LeVante Bellamy. The Broncos haven't been able to beat the Rockets since PJ Fleck left for Minnesota. Toledo has won the last three in the series, including 27-point victories each of the last two years. Western Michigan is tough at Waldo Stadium, but no public attendance is allowed for the game. The Broncos were fortunate to play many weak teams at home last season. That's not the case here. |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
I believe Buffalo is the best team in the MId-American Conference and the Bulls did nothing to dispel that notion rolling past Northern Illinois, 49-30, during the MAC's opening week. The Bulls are very well-coached under Lance Leipold. They've been hot since the middle of last season covering eight of their last nine games. They also have covered 77 percent of their past 22 home games. Miami of Ohio has high expectations, too. But the Redhawks were fortunate to get past Ball State, 38-31, at home last week scoring the game-winning TD with 10 seconds left following a Ball State turnover. The Redhawks could be without their starting QB, Brett Gabbert. He's questionable after suffering a head injury against Ball State. Sophomore AJ Mayer replaced Gabbert and played well. However, Mayer, who did not throw a pass last year, would be on the road and meeting a far stronger defense. The Bulls also have film on him now. I don't see MIami of Ohio slowing down the Bulls' strong ground attack, nor being able to put up enough points to stay within double-digits. |