Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-06-19 | Belmont v. Illinois State +6.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
Belmont is coming off an outstanding season. But the Bruins could struggle in this opener. They are a team in transition right now playing with a new coach following the retirement of Rick Byrd and losing their two leading scorers from last season, Dylan Windler and Kevin McClain. Windler averaged 21.3 points and 10.8 rebounds. The Bruins draw Illinois State, a middle-of-the-road Missouri Valley Conference team. MVC schools are known for defense and slow tempos. Illinois State is no exception. I can see the Redbirds frustrating the Bruins at home and getting the cover if not pulling off the outright upset.
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11-05-19 | Magic +2.5 v. Thunder | 94-102 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
It's easy to be down on Orlando. The Magic are the only NBA team yet to reach triple digits. They rank last in scoring and field goal percentage. Behind that headline, though, are the Magic ranking No. 2 defensively in the league holding foes to 98.2 points per game. Oklahoma City is way down from last season. Chris Paul is the Thunder's lone star and he's off to a slow start. The Thunder also could be without their best big man as center Steven Adams has missed the last two games with a knee injury. The Magic are way overdue to have a good shooting game. They have a decent perimeter shootier in Evan Fournier to go with strong inside players Aaron Gordon and All-Star Nikola Vucevic. Orlando has covered in six of its last seven trips to Oklahoma City.
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11-04-19 | Rockets -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
A 13-point road loss to the Nets this past Friday followed by a humilitating 129-100 defeat to the Heat on Sunday. Now do the Rockets lose for a third straight time? No. I'm getting behind the Rockets in stop-the-pain mode. I understand the Rockets are not in sync and their defense is horrible. But this game sets up well for Houston. The Grizzlies are among the worst teams in the NBA. They are in serious rebuild and won't be seeing positive signs for a while fielding an extremely young lineup with a new coach. Memphis also isn't likely to have their most promising big man, Jaren Jackson Jr. He's questionable with a sore knee. James Harden and Russell Westbrook each played less than half of the game in the blowout loss to the Heat. The prideful superstars should be in line for huge performances as Memphis is really struggling, too, defensively. The Rockets have covered five of the last six in the series.
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11-03-19 | Patriots -3 v. Ravens | 20-37 | Loss | -103 | 54 h 28 m | Show | |
Don't overthink this. Just ride New England until proven otherwise. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of their last 65 games! Bill Belichick should enter the Hall of Fame just on that number alone. A lot is being made of the Patriots going up against the most dangerous dual-threat QB in the NFL in second-year man Lamar Jackson. Turn it around, though. Jackson is going up against a Patriots defense that could be Belichick's all-time best. The Patriots are surrendering an NFL-low 7.6 points per game. They rank No. 2 in totals yards and passing yards. New England has intercepted at least one pass in each game and rank first in interceptions and sacks. Oh, yes, the Patriots have won the last 21 times they've gone against a first or second-year QB. John Harbaugh has been tough following a bye. The Ravens, however, haven't been a strong home team failing to cover in their past six home contests.
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11-03-19 | Bucs +6 v. Seahawks | 34-40 | Push | 0 | 50 h 15 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay can pass the ball effectively and stop the run. Those are two key components when taking on the Seahawks. Seattle is heavily run-oriented. The Buccaneers give up just 68.6 yards rushing, best in the NFL. Tampa Bay's pass rush is upgraded, too, with the return of Jason Pierre-Paul. He'll team up with NFC sacks leader Shaq Barrett. Jameis Winston has strong receiving weapons. Seattle ranks 27th in pass defense and has injuries with safeties Tedric Thompson and newly acquired Quandre Diggs out. The Seahawks have only three sacks in their past four games. The Buccaneers have proven dangerous as road 'dogs already knocking off the Panthers and Rams. Seattle has failed to cover the past four times it has been a home favorite, including nearly losing to the Bengals and falling by 14 points to the Ravens two games ago.
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11-03-19 | Redskins v. Bills -9 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
The Redskins are averaging 8.5 points in their last six games. They may get shut out by a strong and angry Bills defense that is coming off an embarrassing, 31-13, home loss to the Eagles last Sunday. Before that game, the Bills had held five of their first six foes to 17 points or fewer. I see Buffalo's defense rebounding in big fashion against rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, who is in line to make his first NFL start. Jay Gruden was right about Haskins in that the first-year QB isn't nearly ready. Haskins has a 34.5 passer rating with four interceptions in two cameo appearances. The Bills should stack the line to stop ancient Adrian Peterson forcing Haskins to make plays, which I don't see him doing. The Bills are very alive to come up with a pick-six or two. The Bills don't have a good offense. But Josh Allen can make plays with his feet and Buffalo should be operating from outstanding field position. The Bills do own two double-digit victories this season.
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11-03-19 | Jets -3 v. Dolphins | 18-26 | Loss | -119 | 48 h 34 m | Show | |
The Jets have looked bad lately facing two strong defenses, New England and Jacksonville. Now, though, the Jets are stepping all the way down in class. The Dolphins have the worst personnel in the NFL and they just lost one of their few good players in Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard. The Jets have far more talent than the Dolphins. If there is one team Jets coach Adam Gase does not want to lose to it's his former team the Dolphins. Gase should know the Dolphins - or what is left of them - well having been Miami's head coach the previous three seasons. Miami is home, but on a short week having exerted a mental and physical effort in a Monday night road loss to the Steelers. All of Miami's losses, except the one to the Redskins, have been by double-digits.
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11-02-19 | Calgary -7 v. BC | 21-16 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 27 m | Show | |
Calgary is going for playoff seeding needing this game. BC is playing the string out. The Lions were on a four-game winning streak showing after losing seven in a row. But they are back to their losing ways scoring a combined 25 points in their last two games, losses to Edmonton and Saskatchewan. The Lions were without their quarterback, Mike Reilly, in both of those defeats. Reilly is out for the season with a wrist injury. BC's offense isn't nearly as good without him. BC has failed to step up in class all season losing 12 of 13 games versus playoff-bound teams going 3-9-1 ATS in those contests. Calgary is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six visits to British Columbia.
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11-02-19 | UAB +12.5 v. Tennessee | 7-30 | Loss | -109 | 43 h 24 m | Show | |
Look I get that Alabama Birmingham's 6-1 record is deceiving being littered by beating patsies. But I don't think Tennessee is that good with its three-headed QB monster running an offense that ranks 103rd in yards. The Blazers defense is impressive regardless ranking No. 8 in run defense and 11th in points allowed at just 15.7 per game. None of the Blazers' opponents have scored more than 20 points on them. UAB has a balanced attack. QB Tyler Johston III has thrown for 260 or more yards in five of the Blazers' last six games. Tennessee is in a letdown spot after its big win against South Carolina last week. The Volunteers don't have a good track record at home failing to cover in 15 of their last 21 home games. UAB has been a strong money-maker going 25-10-1 ATS in its last 36 games.
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11-02-19 | Kansas State v. Kansas +6.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 55 m | Show |
Kansas is one of the most improved teams in the nation under Les Miles. The Jayhawks have posted upsets of Boston College and Texas Tech while nearly knocking off Texas losing at the gun. The Jayhawks' offense has picked up under offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon with Carter Stanley one of the more underrated QB's in the country. Kansas is ready to spring another upset, this time against arch-rival Kansas State. The Wildcats have dominated this series winning the last 10 times. The Jayhawks hung tough against the Wildcats last season on the road, losing 21-17. Now the Jayhawks are home, vastly improved, riding some confidence and catch the Wildcats in a letdown spot. Kansas State just pulled off a monster upset of Oklahoma last Saturday as a 23 1/2-point home 'dog. This is the Wildcats' first road game in four weeks and only their third road game of the season.
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11-01-19 | Bucks -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Both Milwaukee and Orlando are 2-2. But that's where the similarity ends. The Bucks were the best team in the NBA during the regular season last year - and they could be even better this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a favorite to win MVP honors. The Bucks have drawn three tough opponents during their first four games - Rockets, Heat and Celtics. The Magic are a borderline playoff team. Orlando has faced three easy opponents in its first four games - Cavaliers, Hawks and Knicks. Yet, the Magic are last in the league in scoring at 95.8 points per game. That's 24 fewer points per game than what the Bucks average. Milwaukee is off a road loss to the Celtics. The Bucks are 22-7 ATS following a defeat. This spread is too low given the quality of the two teams and the Bucks being in bounce-back mode.
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10-31-19 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Kill spot here for the Golden Knights. The oddsmaker knows this, too, that's why the money line is so high. I don't lay prices that high, but will gladly take a plus price on the puck line laying 1 1/2 goals. The Golden Knights buried the Ducks, 5-2, in their last game. That was back on Sunday so Las Vegas will be well rested. Not so for Montreal. The Canadiens just beat Arizona, 4-1, last night with Carey Price in net. So the Canadiens either will start backup goalie Keith Kincaid, or a tired Price. The Golden Knights are the much superior team and this is a favorable spot for them.
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10-31-19 | West Virginia v. Baylor -17.5 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
This matchup sets up well for Baylor coming off a bye. Baylor is very solid on both sides of the ball and is running hot with seven straight wins. West Virginia is at low ebb losing three in a row, being outscored in those games, 132-59, by Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Those are all good Big 12 teams. But so is unbeaten 11th-ranked Baylor. The Bears have the third-best scoring offense in the Big 12. The Bears have depth at running back, a receiving threat in Denzel Mims and dual threat quarterback Charlie Brewer knows how to take care of the ball. If you discount the Texas Tech game, Brewer hasn't thrown an interception all season. Brewer will be operating against a depleted West Virginia defense that gives up the most points in the Big 12 and just lost linebacker Josh Chandler to a knee injury.
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10-30-19 | Pistons +9 v. Raptors | Top | 113-125 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Games against Toronto always hold extra meaning now for Detroit. That's become they come against Pistons coach Dwane Casey's former team. Casey knows the Raptors and their personnel well having been their head coach for seven seasons until two years ago. The Pistons went 3-0 versus the Raptors last season and they should be up for this one, too. Detroit has covered in six of its last eight visits to Toronto. This is the Raptors' fourth game in six days. Toronto's next game is much bigger - at the Bucks. Blake Griffin isn't back for Detroit yet. But the Pistons have been getting solid play from Christian Wood. He looked good during preseason and that has carried into the season.
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10-28-19 | Cavs v. Bucks -15 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Bucks are in the mood for a blowout after kicking away a 21-point lead at home in a 131-126 overtime loss to the Heat on Saturday. Giannis Antetokounmpo is off to a fast start. The Cavaliers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and have inexperienced guards. Cleveland, though, is coming off an emotional 110-99 home victory against Indiana on Saturday. The Cavaliers played extremely well in that contest in giving coach Jim Beilein his first pro victory. I don't think the youthful Cavaliers have the maturity to stay close to maybe the best team in the NBA while taking to the road. The Bucks are 21-7 ATS following a defeat. The Bucks are 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times laying double-digits. They beat the Cavaliers twice at home last season with the average winning margin being 19 points. |
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10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +4.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 14 m | Show |
OK, Patrick Mahomes isn't going to play. But the Chiefs are far from dead without Mahomes especially as a home 'dog in this price range. We can all agree Arrowhead Stadium is one of the tougher road venues. There should be unanimous agreement, too, that Andy Reid is an elite coach dangerous with extra prep time, which the Chiefs have from playing last Thursday. Veteran Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league. I respect Moore because he throws downfield where many backups don't have the skill set to do anything except game manage and checkdown. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill provide Moore with a top-two tight end and perhaps the premier deep threat in the league. This is just Green Bay's second road game in seven weeks. Aaron Rodgers has a career losing road record and isn't expected to have his top wide receiver, injured Davonte Adams.
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10-27-19 | Ducks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 125 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
I want the Golden Knights going for me here so I'll laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line to reduce the heavy juice as the oddsmaker obviously believes the Golden Knights are the right side, too. Las Vegas was embarrassed at home on Friday by Colorado, 6-1. Afterward, Golden Knights coach Gerard Gallant ripped his team. Now Las Vegas is back at T-Mobile Arena and should be primed for a huge effort. The timing is good, too. Las Vegas draws Anaheim. The Ducks are coming a big road win against the Avalanche, 5-2, last night. This marks the Ducks' third road game in four days. Their 28th-ranked offense can't stay with the Golden Knights.
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10-27-19 | Heat v. Wolves -6.5 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
Great play from center Karl-Anthony Towns. The continuity of fielding the same lineup from last season. A good vibe under 33-year-old head coach Ryan Saunders, son of the late coach Flip Saunders. These are all factors why the Timberwolves are off to a 2-0 start. I expect Minnesota to move that record to 3-0 today as they are not only playing well but in a great situational spot. Minnesota draws Miami at home after the Heat just upset the Bucks, 131-126 in overtime, at Milwaukee on Saturday. The Heat accomplished this without Jimmy Butler, who won't play today either. Obviously this is a monster letdown spot for the Heat.
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10-27-19 | Broncos v. Colts -4 | Top | 13-15 | Loss | -115 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
If the Broncos thought they could make a successful run with Joe Flacco at quarterback they were sadly delusional. It took a 30-6 home loss to the Chiefs last Thursday to figure that out. Now, at 2-5, the Broncos know they are dead. Only seven teams during the last 40 years have made the postseason after opening 2-5. Emmmanuel Sanders, Denver's best wideout, got traded. Others are likely to follow before Tuesday's trade deadline concludes. Unless Dwayne Haskins becomes the Redskins new first-stringer, Flacco is the worst starting QB in the NFL. And Garett Bolles may be the worst offensive left tackle in the league. It's a lethal combination that sinks the Broncos' popgun offense that has failed to break 16 points in five of their seven games. The Broncos' defense is good, but not great. Certainly it's not nearly strong enough to carry such a putrid offense. The Colts have proven time after time under Frank Reich that they are legitimate. Indy's defense has back it's best playmaker, linebacker Darius Leonard, and top defensive back in free safety Malik Hooker. The Colts are balanced on offense with Jacoby Brissett coming off a confidence-building four-touchdown performance in a 30-23 home win against Houston last Sunday. When you factor in home field advantage and the Colts being without a major weakness, this line comes up short.
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10-27-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Bills | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 37 h 45 m | Show | |
The records show 5-1 and 3-4. But it's the Bills who are the 5-1 team. Buffalo has a very solid defense. The Bills' offense scares no one, though. Buffalo has built its record by beating the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Combined record of those teams is 6-27. None of those foes is above .500. The Eagles opened 3-2 before losing consecutive road games to the Vikings and Cowboys. Philly was outmatched in those games. The Eagles won't be here. They also won't lack motivation after a humiliating national TV loss to the Cowboys unlike the Bills, who are fat and happy. Buffalo is heavily run-oriented. Bills second-year QB Josh Allen is turnover-prone. The Eagles have gotten healthier in the secondary and rank seventh in rush defense. They've been tough on every running back except superstar Ezekiel Elliott.
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10-27-19 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | 15-29 | Loss | -140 | 37 h 38 m | Show | |
The Jets aren't as good as they looked in beating the Cowboys two weeks ago. But they also aren't as befuddled as they looked this past Monday against the Patriots. New York's season stats are skewed because of the three games Luke Falk started. The Jets are much better with Sam Darnold behind center. The only ghost Darnold is going to see is the ghost of departed Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Jacksonville's defense isn't as good without Ramsey, their top defensive back, and injured lineman Marcell Dareus. Jacksonville also is banged up at linebacker. Darnold has gone against the Bills, in a game the Jets lost by one point, Cowboys and Patriots. The Jaguars aren't as good as those teams. I fail to see the publicity match the skill set with Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew. He's thrown one TD pass in his last two games while failing to complete even half of his passes in those two games.
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10-27-19 | Giants +7 v. Lions | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 32 m | Show | |
It seemed for a brief moment that the Lions might be better than mediocre this season. That moment has flickered away. The Lions are who they always have been - poorly coached, bad on defense, unable to run and adept at blowing leads. The Giants need to protect Daniel Jones better, but they don't lack for skill position weapons headed by the electrifying Saquan Barkley. He's in line for a huge game going against a beat-up Lions defense line that has injuries to Damon Harrison, Da'Shawn Hand and Mike Daniels. The Lions also are without their top cornerback, injured Darius Slay, and traded away safety Quandre Diggs. The Lions lack the pass rush to protect their now undermanned secondary. Detroit has yielded 430 or more yards in each of its last three games, the first time the Lions have done that in 11 years. The Lions' largest victory margin this season is three points. The Giants have covered eight of the last 10 times as a road 'dog. New York's defense can key on the pass as the Lions also lost their top running back, Kerryon Johnson.
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10-26-19 | Raptors -3 v. Bulls | 108-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
This line is too short. Both teams did play last night and won. The Raptors haven't fully developed their bench yet, but their seven-man rotation should not get fatigued this early into the season. Plus the Raptors had previously played last Tuesday when they opened the season. So they've had ample rest. Toronto is much the superior team. Even without Kawhi Leonard the Raptors are among the four top teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are a borderline playoff team at best. Chicago lost to Charlotte in its first game. The Hornets could be the worst team in the NBA. Chicago then defeated Memphis, 110-102, last night in Memphis. So the Bulls won't be rested either flying in during the early morning hours. The Raptors have played the stronger competition going against New Orleans Boston last night. The Raptors lost, 112-106, to the Celtics on the road. Toronto is 11-3 ATS the past 14 times when playing on zero rest. The Raptors have the guard play with Kyle Lowery and Fred VanVleet to take advantage of the Bulls' weak transition defense. Toronto dominated the Bulls last season winning all four games by an average of 19.2 points.
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10-26-19 | Arizona State v. UCLA +3.5 | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show | |
UCLA is getting better. The Bruins are 2-1-1 ATS in their last four games, including SU road victories against Washington State and Stanford. The Bruins have improved their defense, allowing 366 yards per game during their last three games, and getting better QB play. Star running back Joshua Kelley is healthy again, too. Arizona State has been getting worse. The Sun Devils are coming off a lackluster 21-3 loss to Utah. UCLA has played a tougher schedule than Arizona State. The Sun Devils' early season win against Michigan State doesn't look so impressive now given the Spartans' woes. This has been an extremely tight series. The Sun Devils nipped UCLA, 31-28, last year. The Bruins are better than they were last season. I see them getting revenge at home.
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10-26-19 | Texas Tech -4.5 v. Kansas | 34-37 | Loss | -108 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
Kansas is much improved under Les Miles. But the Jayhawks still have a long rebuild and this spot sets up great for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are coming off a tough 34-24 home loss to Iowa State. They can't afford a loss to Kansas in their quest to make a bowl game. The Red Raiders have plenty of firepower and should give the Jayhawks their best effort. Kansas, on the other hand, is in a letdown spot after nearly upsetting Texas in one of its best performances of the past few years. The Jayhawks had rallied several times to lead, but lost on a field goal at the gun, 50-48. Kansas played its guts out and it's going to be difficult for the Jayhaws to match that performance physically and emotionally. Texas Tech has dominated this series winning the past nine times while going 7-2 ATS. The Red Raiders' average win in this span has been by 24 points. Texas Tech has defeated Kansas by an average of 38 points during the last three years. The gap has narrowed. But not enough and the situation lays out well for the Red Raiders.
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10-26-19 | Auburn +11 v. LSU | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show | |
LSU hasn't faced a defense nearly this good all season. Auburn gives up just 17.1 points per game. That ranks 16th in the nation. Auburn also is 11th in run defense with its NFL-caliber defensive line. Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix is getting better. He's surrounded by strong pieces. LSU plays Alabama in its next game. So the Tigers have to guard against getting ahead of themselves. Not so with Auburn, which needs this game to keep in contention to win the Western Division portion of the SEC. Auburn has covered seven of its last eight games. This should be a highly competitive game just like the past three, which were decided by 1, 4 and 5 points.
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10-26-19 | Illinois v. Purdue -9.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -106 | 41 h 45 m | Show |
Congrats to Illinois on pulling off the season's biggest upset with its 24-23 home victory against sixth-ranked Wisconsin last Saturday. The Illini were 28 1/2-point underdogs. It was the first time Illinois had defeated a ranked team in eight years. I'm not a fan of Illinois coach Lovie Smith, though, and I don't see the Illini being ready to go on the road to take on a frustrated Purdue team that has dominated them recently. This is the mother of all letdown spots for Illinois. Purdue has lost its quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, and star wide receiver Rondale Moore to injuries. However, backup QB Jack Plummer is showing steady improvement, the Boilermakers still have good receiving depth - including an excellent pass-catching tight end in Brycen Hopkins - and an edge in coaching with Jeff Brohm. Illinois could be missing its leading pass receiver, Ricky Smalling, and defensive end Oluwole Betiku, who ranks among the nation leaders in sacks. Both were injured against Wisconsin. The Boilermakers have beaten the Illini each of the last three years, including 46-7 on the road last season and 29-10 two years ago.
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10-25-19 | Blazers -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 122-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
Let's just say Luke Walton's coaching debut with the Kings was less than stellar. That's as kind as I can put it. Sacramento was whipped by the lowly Suns, 124-95, at Phoenix this past Wednesday. The Kings had Marvin Bagley and Buddy Hield in that game. Those are two of their three best players with Bagley being their top big man. Bagley is out now with a broken right thumb and Hield is questionable with an ankle sprain. He didn't practice on Thursday. The Kings are in transition learning Walton's system and now they have to adjust again. The youthful Kings are going to encounter an angry Trail Blazers squad that had their 18-game win streak in home openers ended by Denver this past Wednesday. Portland caught a hot Denver team that made 18 of 32 3-pointers while the Trail Blazers missed 21 of 28 shots from beyond the arc. I trust All-Star guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum far more than what Sacramento has right now. I also like Portland coach Terry Stotts much more than Walton. Portland is 17-8-2 ATS(68%) following a point spread loss.
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10-25-19 | Sharks v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 130 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
The Maple Leafs are in stop-the-pain mode with two straight losses and draw the Sharks at home in a good spot. Toronto lost 4-3 at home on a penalty shot in overtime to Columbus and then fell to the Bruins, 4-2, on the road this past Tuesday. So Toronto will be rested and ready for this matchup. San Jose defeated Montreal, 4-2, last night. This marks the Sharks' third road game in four days. The Maple Leafs went 2-0 versus San Jose last season winning each of those games by two goals.
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +14.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
These are heady times for SMU. The Mustangs are 7-0 for the first time in 37 years and ranked 16th in the AP's Top 25 poll. That's the highest the Mustangs have been rated since 1985. The combination of that and the perception that Houston is a dead team after losing outright as 21-point road favorites to lowly Connecticut last week push this line to the two-touchdown mark. I'm stepping in at this point. Houston still has bowl aspirations. The Cougars also should get back QB Clayton Tune. He's a big upgrade on third-stringer Logan Holgorsen, who was behind center against Connecticut. Tune didn't play in that huge upset because of a hamstring injury. He is practicing this week and expected to play. The Cougars rank 22nd in rushing. They have the capability to play ball control preventing SMU's high octane offense from taking the field. This also is a big in-state rivalry and has recruting ramifications. The Cougars have revenge motivation, too. They were ranked 17th in the country when SMU beat them last season as 14-point home 'dogs.
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10-24-19 | Hawks v. Pistons | 117-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Surprised by this game being in the pick range? Apparently there is some negative Detroit sentiment due to the Pistons playing Wednesday and being without Blake Griffin. He will miss the first five games of the season with an injured hamstring and sore knee. But I like that the Pistons already have played a game - and what a game! They defeated the Pacers on the road, 119-110. Andre Drummond had a monster performance with 32 points and 23 rebounds. An important takeaway is the Pistons' bench outscoring Indiana's reserves, 57-16. Now the Pistons play at home for the first time drawing the rebuilding Hawks. Atlanta has some intriguing young talent. But the Hawks are still in rebuild mode after having won fewer than 30 games each of the last two seasons. This is their first game of the season. Detroit doesn't just want to hand back that great opening night win by falling at home to Atlanta. The Pistons should be pumped. Fatigue shouldn't be such a big factor this early in the season and Detroit showed it has a bench. It's not too much to ask the Pistons just to win this game without having to cover a margin.
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10-23-19 | Wolves +4 v. Nets | Top | 127-126 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
I like the Nets and their coach, Kenny Atkinson. Let me be more precise, though. I like and prefer the Nets in an underdog role. They made a huge splash in free agency signing Kyrie Irving, DeAndre Jordan and Kevin Durant, who likely is out for this season. The Nets are getting ahead of themselves. I'm not sold on them being a better team than the Timberwolves. Certainly Minnesota will have the best big man on the court in Karl-Anthony Towns. The Timberwolves bring back the same team from last season. That's a plus because of the continuity. The Nets had good chemistry last season. Let's see if that continues and how things work now that they have Irving, who didn't turn out to be a good fit for Boston last season. It's not a plus either for the Nets that they spend some of their preseason in China. By contrast, Minnesota is under-the-radar right now. Timberwolves coach Ryan Saunders is just 33, the youngest coach in the NBA. He has the Timberwolves playing up-tempo and firing up 3-pointers. That's popular with his players. The Timberwolves don't take a backseat to the Nets in terms of talent with a healthy and rejuvenated Jeff Teague at point guard, wing players Andrew Wiggins and Robert Covington along with Towns, one of the best big men in the game.
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets +10.5 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -130 | 121 h 7 m | Show |
The Jets are a much different - and better - team with Sam Darnold at QB. They should be mentally ready to take on the Patriots off a confidence-building home victory against the Cowboys last week. Statistically speaking, the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL. Darnold has weapons, though, with Le'Veon Bell, deep threat Robbie Anderson and much underrated slot man Jamison Crowder. The Patriots' offense hasn't been that sharp. This has largely gone unnoticed because their defense has been so good and because of an easy schedule. New England, however, is banged up at wide receiver, deficient at tight end and weak at the offensive tackle spots. The Jets should be up for this game more than any other matchup all season being against their most hated division rival and at home on Monday night.
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10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | 10-37 | Loss | -114 | 97 h 9 m | Show | |
Why the Eagles? Better team getting points especially with Dallas not playing well losing to the Jets and Packers, who scored the first 24 points in that game. The Cowboys are dealing with key injuries. Both of Dallas' starting offensive tackles have been out the last couple of weeks. The Cowboys rely on Ezekiel Elliott to produce yardage on the ground, but the Eagles rank second in run defense. Dak Prescott isn't that effective in the air without his top wideout, Amari Cooper, who isn't expected to play. The Cowboys also could be minus their top cornerback, Byron Jones. He's dealing with a hamstring injury. The Eagles, on the other hand, are getting healthier as several of their cornerbacks could play after being out. This has been a road series with the visitor covering 11 of the last 15 times.
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10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3 | 36-25 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 15 m | Show | |
I want the Bears going for me at home having had two weeks to stew about their embarrassing loss to the Raiders in London. The Saints are overdue for a loss. They are 5-1 with an average winning margin of 4.8 points. They have outscored their opponents by just six points in six games. Teddy Bridgewater is a game manager. He needs weapons. Unfortunately for New Orleans, Alvin Kamara is dealing with an ankle injury that may cause him to miss this game if not limit his effectiveness. The Bears are in the argument for having the best defense in football. This also is an off-surface for the Saints, who play on turf indoors not outdoors on grass.
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10-20-19 | Raiders v. Packers -5 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 90 h 47 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Raiders for maybe putting forth their best effort ever under Jon Gruden in upsetting the Bears two weeks ago in London. But I'm not sold on Oakland especially when playing away from home, which they will be doing for the fourth straight time. The Raiders are 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS when not playing in Oakland under Gruden. It's easy to remember the Raiders' stirring performance across the pond. But earlier they were smashed, 34-14, by the Vikings on the road. Green Bay defeated the Vikings at home earlier this season. This is an early start time, too, for the Raiders. They are 1-6 SU and ATS the past seven times when playing at 10 a.m. PDT. All of those losses have been by at least seven points. Aaron Rodgers doesn't need Davante Adams to beat Oakland. Obviously it's a nice plus if Adams is over his toe injury that has caused him to miss the last two games. Rodgers, though, is an elite QB with a monster edge on Derek Carr, who is far more of a dink-and-dunker than gunslinger and lacks receiving weapons. Green Bay's defense is one of the most improved units in football ranking ninth in fewest points allowed. The Raiders average less than two sacks per game, are penalty prone and give up nearly 25 points a game.
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -3 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 46 m | Show |
The Giants are home, have a huge scheduling advantage and get back Saquan Barkley and Evan Engram. Barkley is a top-three running back and I rate Engram as a top-five tight end. The Cardinals have a porous defense ranking among the bottom-four in several key statistical categories, including yards allowed, points and pass defense. The return of cornerback Patrick Peterson from suspension is a plus for the Cardinals, but doesn't move the needle nearly enough. The Cardinals are coming off a 34-33 home victory against the Falcons. The Cardinals achieved the victory when normally reliable veteran Matt Bryant missed an extra point after the Falcons scored a touchdown with less than two minutes left. The Cardinals nipped the Bengals at the gun on a field gun two weeks ago. The Falcons and Bengals are a combined 1-11. The spread would be much higher here if the Cardinals held a 0-5-1 mark instead of a far more respectable 2-3-1 record. This also is Arizona's longest trip of the season and it's at an early West Coast start time. The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Eastern Standard Time games. The Giants are on extra rest having played last Thursday.
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10-20-19 | Jaguars -4 v. Bengals | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
If the NFL draft were to take place today it would not be the Miami Dolphins picking first. Instead it would be the Bengals because they have the worst record in the NFL at 0-6. The Bengals aren't tanking, but they are as bad as Miami. Cincinnati ranks last in rushing and last in stopping the run. On top of this, the Bengals have cluster injury situations in their offensive line and secondary with both starting cornerbacks out. A.J. Green, their best wideout, remains sidelined. Some regard the Saints as the best team in the NFC. Yet the Jaguars were nearly a field goal favorite against New Orleans last week. The Jaguars are slightly more than a field goal favorite against the Bengals. Doesn't make sense. Yes, the Jaguars were home against the Saints. Cincinnati, though, has a minimal home field edge. The Jaguars have an above average defense. That's without star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who missed the past three games. Ramsey getting traded could help the Jaguars' morale. He certainly won't be a distraction anymore. Jacksonville needs this game being two games out of first in the wide open AFC South Division. In their last five games, the Jaguars have defeated the Broncos and Titans while losing on the road to the Texans by one point and by seven to the Panthers. Jacksonville fell to the Saints by seven points at home last Sunday. The Jaguars are at their best when Leonard Fournette is gashing defenses. Fournette is having his best season averaging 5.1 yards a carry and ranking No. 2 in the AFC in rushing. The Bengals have allowed half of their opponents to rush for at least 250 yards. An effective Fournette sets up Gardner Minshew's play action passes. On top of all their injuries, the Bengals' defense carries a high fatigue rating. They were on the field for nearly 40 minutes and more than 80 snaps against the Ravens last week.
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10-19-19 | Kansas +21.5 v. Texas | Top | 48-50 | Win | 100 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
This line might make sense - it it were last year. Les Miles has made Kansas far more respectable. But even before Miles came on board the Jayhawks have given Texas trouble. The Longhorns defeated the Jayhawks, 24-17, last year failing to cover as 15 1/2-point road favorites. Texas beat Kansas by 15 points at home two seasons ago failing to cover as 32-point favorites and three years ago the Jayhawks stunned the Longhorns, 24-21, as 23 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kansas had a bye last week. The Jayhawks draw the Longhorns after Texas just had its annual Red River Shootout against arch-rival Oklahoma. The Longhorns are at TCU next week. So the spot clearly favors Kansas. Sam Ehlinger is one of the best QB's in the country. But I see the Jayhawks having the weapons to hang with Texas especially since the Longhorns have multiple defensive injuries. The Longhorns are giving up 453.3 yards per game, which ranks 111th. They have permitted an average of 31.6 points in their three Big 12 games. Kansas senior QB Carter Stanley ranks among the top 10 QB's statistically in Kansas history. He should be helped by a switch in offensive coordinators that has a more aggressive approach. Stanley has a pair of capable WR's in Andrew Parchment and Stephon Robinson Jr. plus one of the best running backs in the conference, Pooka Williams. |
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10-19-19 | Central Michigan -10.5 v. Bowling Green | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
Central Michigan is playing its best ball with consecutive blowout victories against Eastern Michigan and New Mexico State. New Mexico State is a very bad team. So is Bowling Green. Don't look for the Chippewas to overlook Bowling Green, though. Not after the Falcons stunned Toldeo at home last Saturday winning 20-7 as 26 1/2-point 'dogs. That game was a total exception. Bowling Green is terrible on both sides of the ball. The Falcons had allowed four of their previous six opponents to score 35 or more points. They are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 home games. Bowling Green also is 1-6 ATS following a victory. Bowling Green had not beaten Toldeo, a rivalry matchup, since 2009. The Falcons' defense is weak especially against the run. Central Michigan has a balanced offense averaging 32.3 points. The Chippewas rank 51th in rushing while Bowling Green rates 111th in run defense yielding 208 yards on the ground per game. The Falcons also are 127th in scoring averaging a meager 15.5 points. Central Michigan has covered four of the last five times versus below .500 opponents.
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10-19-19 | Florida -4.5 v. South Carolina | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
You can't hold it against South Carolina if the Gamecocks suffer a letdown here against a strong Florida team. South Carolina is coming off a monster upset of then third-ranked Georgia, 20-17, in double overtime last week. The Gators are looking to rebound following a 42-28 loss to third-ranked LSU. Florida had won 10 in a row until falling to the Tigers.The Gators still have a shot to reach the SEC title game, but they need to win here. Kyle Trask is playing better at QB and the Gators own the superior defense in this matchup. Florida was leading the nation in sacks until last week. |
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10-19-19 | NC State v. Boston College +3.5 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
Boston College is 3-3, but 4-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog. The Eagles were idle last week. That has given more time to new QB Dennis Grosel, who replaces injured Anthony Brown. Grosel looked good in the Eagles' 41-39 road loss to Louisville two weeks ago when Brown was injured. NC State loves to blitz. The Eagles, however, have allowed just three sacks. The Wolfpack also are using a backup QB, Bailey Hockman. I prefer Grosel especially since he's backed by star RB AJ Dillon, who leads the ACC in rushing. NC State has failed to cover in its last four road games. The Wolfpacks are 1-5-1 ATS in their seven visits to BC. |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 28 m | Show |
The Rams are feeling heat from the Seahawks and 49ers having lost two in a row. So this becomes a crucial game. Sean McVay is the best coach in the NFC. Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. The 49ers are not used to taking on opponents who are extremely motivated to play them - until now. San Francisco is much improved as its 4-0 record attests. But do note those victories have come against the Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers and Browns. The combined record of those teams is 5-15. LA is on extra rest having played last Thursday. The Rams are 7-1 ATS when having a rest advantage under McVay. The 49ers, on the other hand, are on a short week coming off a great Monday night home win against the Browns. Lost in the glare of the 49ers' dismantling of the Browns, though, was two key injuries - fullback Kyle Juszcyk and offensive right tackle Mike McGlinchey. Both are out long-term. Juszcyk may be the best fullback in the league. Compounding McGlinchey's injury is San Francisco already is minus star offensive left tackle Joe Staley. Aaron Donald should be in for a monster game. The Rams' defense isn't as down as some may perceive. LA's offense has been turning the ball over, which has put its defense in difficult field position. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have that much starting QB experience. He's going to face a heavy pass rush without his starting tackles. I don't see him keeping up with a high caliber Rams offense that should be well-designed with nine days to prepare under QB guru McVay. Todd Gurley may not play, but the Rams have two other good running backs. One of the keys to McVay's success has been a 10-3 division record. The 49ers are 2-10 against NFC West foes under Kyle Shanahan.
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10-13-19 | Bengals +12.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 45 m | Show |
As bad as the Bengals are, the Ravens aren't nearly good enough to lay this big of a number in a division matchup. The Ravens' defense has surrendered 96 points in its last three games. They rank 29th in pass defense and are down several key members in their secondary, including Jimmy Smith and Tony Jefferson. It's become obvious how much Baltimore misses former defensive stalwarts Terrell Suggs and C.J. Mosley, both of whom departed via free agency. The Bengals have proven to be a feisty underdog covering five of the past six times in that role. They nearly beat Seattle and Buffalo straight-up on the road this season. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS during its last five visits to Baltimore. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they have been favored. Their heavy reliance on running the ball makes them an especially poor choice to lay double-digits.
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10-13-19 | Eagles v. Vikings -3 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 95 h 23 m | Show | |
The Vikings are healthier and a better team than the Eagles right now. I also believe the Vikings' strong home field is worth more than the standard three points. So this line is short. Minnesota is 15-5 SU and ATS the last 20 times when laying five points or less at home. Kirk Cousins does his best work against bad teams and crippled secondaries. The Eagles have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cousins has a strong history versus Philadelphia, too, with a 101.2 career passer rating that includes 17 TD passes in eight games. The Eagles have to respect Dalvin Cook. So the Vikings are balanced and should have no problem moving the ball. Not so with the Eagles. Carson Wentz hasn't been sharp so far this season and he's squaring off on the road against an elite defense.
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10-12-19 | BYU -4 v. South Florida | 23-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
If BYU wants to have a realistic bowl shot it can't stumble here. The Cougars have lost consecutive games to Washington and Toledo on the road. There is no shame in losing to those two teams especially drawing the Rockets in Toledo. There would be tremendous shame, though, if the Cougars were to get upset by South Florida. I don't see that happening, though, even with BYU starting QB Zach Wilson out with a broken thumb. The Cougars had a needed bye last week. Redshirt freshman QB Jaren Hall should be prepared. He's facing a Bulls squad that yields nearly 30 points a game ranking 93rd in scoring defense. BYU is bigger and has the more mature athletes. The Cougars have proven themselves with victories against Southern Cal and Tennessee. This has become a crucial game for the Cougars so their concentration, level of urgency and motivation should be there.
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10-11-19 | Virginia +2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 60 m | Show |
Give me Virgina, the superior team that is on extra rest and taking points here. The Cavaliers have had two weeks to stew about their last game, a disappointing 35-20 loss to 10th-ranked Notre Dame. Virginia has an excellent dual threat QB in Bryce Perkins and a strong defense that ranks second in sacks with 24 and is 10th in total defense. I like Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall especially with extra prep time. Miami is on short rest having played last Saturday. The Hurricanes exerted a lot of energy in a valiant comeback from a four-touchdown deficit to lose, 42-35, to Virginia Tech. If you discount their game against non Division I opponent Bethune Cookman, the Hurricanes have been outscored on the season. The Hurricanes will be starting redshirt sophomore QB N'Kosi Perry. It's his first start for Miami this season. The Cavaliers defeated a better Miami team last season, 16-13, at home. The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS against opponents with a winning record. Virginia has covered in its last four visits to Miami.
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10-07-19 | Browns +4 v. 49ers | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 47 m | Show |
Burying the Ravens on the road last Sunday was huge for the Browns. Both from a confidence standpoint and also to reinforce their high talent level. Cleveland achieved that victory despite missing its starting cornerbacks, Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams. Both could return here. The 49ers can't match the Browns' skill position talent of Bakery Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb. Cleveland's offensive line has been a weak spot. But the 49ers are minus their top offensive lineman with left tackle Joe Staley out with a leg injury. Myles Garrett, who is in the argument for being the best pass rusher in the AFC, could be in line for a huge game. The 49ers are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games since making the move to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. They haven't covered as home chalk in five years. I respect Kyle Shanahan. I think the 49ers are much improved. But they are not a playoff contender. Cleveland is. The Browns are the superior team catching points. The 49ers have a weak home field. So getting points is a nice bonus.
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10-06-19 | Bears -4 v. Raiders | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 45 m | Show |
The Raiders are 2-8 in their road games under Jon Gruden. They have been outscored by 130 points in those games. Statistically, the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL. But considering the caliber of opponents the Patriots have played compared to the Bears, I would go with the Bears being the No. 1 defensive team. I can't see the Raiders putting up many points here even if the Bears are minus Roquan Smith and Akiem Hicks. Khalil Mack is sure to be fired-up playing against his former team. I actually like the Bears' offense more with Chase Daniel at QB instead of Mitch Trubisky. Daniel is the more polished, experienced and accurate passer. He doesn't have to do anything fancy just play with in his means for the Bears to roll past the Raiders. Minnesota buried the Raiders, 34-14, at home two weeks ago. The Bears just got done defeating the Vikings. This marks Oakland's third straight away contest. The game is being played in London, but time-wise it comes out to be a morning game for the Raiders. The Raiders are 1-6 SU and ATS the past seven times on the road during an early start time.
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10-06-19 | Vikings -4.5 v. Giants | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 140 h 28 m | Show | |
Daniel Jones has provided a spark to the Giants. Since he replaced Eli Manning, the Giants have gone 2-0. Those victories, though, were against the Buccaneers and Redskins. Now Jones has to step way up in class and face an elite defense, the Vikings. Jones doesn't have much skill position support either with Saquan Barkley out. The Vikings are in an angry mood after losing to the Bears last week. Don't think for an instant the Giants defense is any good just because they held the impotent Redskins to three points this past Sunday. Kirk Cousins has a history of playing better versus weaker competition. Look for the Vikings to open things up more, too, against the Giants making better use of star wideouts Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs to go with the dangerous Dalvin Cook in the backfield. The Giants are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Vikings are at least two levels higher than the Giants and should win by double-digits.
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10-06-19 | Jets +14.5 v. Eagles | 6-31 | Loss | -135 | 87 h 5 m | Show | |
I'll take two touchdowns with the Jets figuring neither Sam Darnold nor C.J. Mosley, their best defensive player, are going to play. Mosley is surely out at least another week. It's a huge plus if Darnold can play. But I'm fine with Luke Falk under center at this high of a point spread. The Eagles have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. They could be down their three best cornerbacks. They also are missing two defensive linemen and star defensive end Fletcher Cox is dealing with a foot aliment. So he might be out, too, or extremely hobbled if he does play. The Jets do get back defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, who is projected to be the best rookie defensive lineman in the NFL. Falk is who he is - a desperation third-stringer with limited talent. But at least now he's had time to work with the Jets' first-string offense. Adam Gase should be able to coach him up especially with the Jets coming off a bye. Falk has decent wide receivers and a workhorse running back, Le'Veon Bell, who also is one of the better pass-receiving running back. The Eagles go on the road for three straight away games following this matchup taking on the Vikings, Cowboys and Bills. They don't want to have to exert or show too much against this lowly non-division opponent. They will be happy just to get a win and get healthy.
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10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2 | 14-7 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 52 m | Show | |
The Bills had great anticipation and hope before last Sunday's game against the Patriots. Those were dashed when the Bills' offense couldn't produce anything and Josh Allen got hurt. I respect the heck out of Buffalo's defense, but they are a deflated team this week and forced to go with journeyman backup QB Matt Barkley. Allen isn't accurate. Neither is Barkley. Allen was a running threat, however, and could make a big play. Barkley can't run, nor produce big plays. The Titans are a solid team that could be feared if Marcus Mariota is able to step up his game. Mariota showed signs of doing that last week. He has a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and his pass protection was the best it has been all season last Sunday against the Falcons. The Bills' defense is much more physical and superior to the Falcons. The Titans, though, get their best offensive lineman, left tackle Taylor Lewan, back from suspension. Tennessee has edges at all the skill positions as the Bills can't match Derrick Henry in the backfield, nor Corey Davis at wide receiver.
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10-05-19 | UMass v. Florida International -26 | Top | 0-44 | Win | 100 | 48 h 47 m | Show |
UMass won its first game of the season last week beating Akron at home as a 9 1/2-point underdog, 37-29. The Minutemen are terrible, though, and I want to fade them off that victory. UMass had lost its previous four games by 34 points to Coastal Carolina, by 35 points to Charlotte, by 25 points to Southern Illinois and by 27 points to Rutgers. Florida International was idle last week. The Golden Panthers have covered the past four times following a bye. They are 3-0 under Butch Davis after a bye. The Golden Panthers can't slip here if they want to have a realistic shot of a bowl bid. Davis has stressed that to his team. James Morgan looked good for Florida International in a loss to Louisiana Tech going 29-for-41 with 394 yards passing and three touchdowns in its last game. Morgan had been out with an ankle injury. Morgan entered the season as one of the better QB's in Conference USA. UMass is starting third-stringer Michael Curtis at QB. The Minutemen are in rebuild mode starting seven true freshmen, most of any FBS team. UMass ranks 115th in yards gained and is second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed and points given up.
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10-05-19 | Baylor +2.5 v. Kansas State | 31-12 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show | |
I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer much more than Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson. Brewer is one of the more underrated QB's in college football. He has yet to throw an interception and has connected on 66 percent of his throws while accounting for 10 touchdowns. The Bears rank No. 2 in the Big 12 in run defense and scoring defense. They haven't yielded more than 21 points in a game. The Wildcats don't have the weapons Baylor has. The Bears can just concentrate on Kansas State running back James Gilbert. Denzel Mims gives Baylor the most dynamic player on the field. The Wildcats were exposed by Oklahoma State last week suffering their first loss, 26-3, after winning their first three games. Kansas State surrendered 526 yards in that loss. The Wildcats lack a pass rush and aren't good at stopping the run either. I have less respect for the Wildcats now that Bill Snyder isn't their head coach anymore.
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10-03-19 | Panthers v. Lightning -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 151 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
The Panthers have missed the playoffs for the past three seasons. That string may end this season as the Panthers should be much improved. They've added players and opened up their checkbook. But it's going to take a while to get things going. This is a bad spot for the Panthers drawing Tampa Bay on the road. The Lightning dominated the regular-season tying the NHL record for most wins with 62. However, the Lightning were shockingly swept in the first round of the playoffs by Columbus. The Lightning have been in angry mood during preseason. Now they finally can put last season's early Stanley Cup disappointment behind them. They draw in-state rival Florida and the Panthers' new goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky. The irony isn't lost here. It was Bobrovsky who helped the Hurricanes sweep the Lightning in the playoffs with his stellar goal play. Tampa Bay has dominated this series winning the past six meetings while averaging 5.1 goals in these games. The Lightning will be sky high for this long-awaited season-opener especially looking to get revenge on Bobrovsky.
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10-02-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 165 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
The Golden Knights have been pointing to this matchup after losing to the Sharks in the playoff last season in a bitter and controversial series. Las Vegas gave an indication of this burying the San Jose, 5-1, this past Sunday in front of a sold out home crowd in the final preseason game. The Sharks haven't been sharp during preseason going 1-5. San Jose will be without suspended forward Evander Kane, too.
I believe this is a kill spot for Las Vegas. So taking a big plus price on the puck line makes more sense to me than laying heavy juice on the side. |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
This matchup has lost much of its star power with no Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and A.J. Green. It's going to be decided in the trenches - and that's where the Steelers hold a monster edge to go with home field and the mental confidence of having defeated Cincinnati eight straight times. The Bengals can't run the ball, nor stop the run. That's a very bad combination especially when playing Pittsburgh on the road. The Bengals are last in the NFL in rushing and second from the bottom in run defense. The Steelers aren't going to be fancy here. They don't need to be. Mason Rudolph should play better in his second NFL start and first at home. He doesn't need to play great, just steady behind a very good offensive line. Pittsburgh defense will be fired up. It played very well at San Francisco last week. Rookie Devin Bush gives the Steelers' needed linebacker speed that they haven't had since Ryan Shazier was injured. Andy Dalton needs weapons to succeed. Instead he's saddled with a bottom-five offensive line. Bad offensive lines don't travel well. Cincinnati has lost its last seven away matchups. |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos -3 | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 18 m | Show | |
At 0-3 the Broncos are in desperation mode. The Jaguars are sure to get the Broncos' top effort. Denver is especially tough at home early in the season when opponents aren't in shape to deal with high altitude. The Broncos are 13-1 during their last 14 September home games. The Broncos' defense is better than it has showed. I'm not buying any Minshew Mania. Gardner Minshew is far more game manager than gunslinger. He needs to heavily lean on Leonard Fournette, who is having a disappointing season so far. Forget, too, about Jacksonville returning to its playoff ways of two seasons ago. The Jaguars are more like last season's 5-11 team. Their offense lacks a downfield attack, Fournette may be in the wrong system and the defense isn't as dominant as last year missing some key players, including linebacker Telvin Smith. It's not a fluke the Jaguars have dropped 12 of their past 15 games while going 4-9-2 ATS during this span. They just aren't very good. |
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09-29-19 | Browns +7.5 v. Ravens | 40-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Yes, the Browns were the most overhyped team entering the season. Now, though, the pendulum has swung too far the other way. The Browns aren't as bad as they've looked. This is a step down for the Browns after they played the Rams last week. Baltimore nipped Cleveland, 26-24, at home last season. The Browns are far more talented this season. It's taken a while, but I see Baker Mayfield and his talented skill position players putting the pieces together in this matchup. The Ravens' defense down is from a year ago and they have multiple injuries in their secondary. Mayfield will be able to spot open receivers. The Ravens are at their worst in the role of home favorite, too, where they are 1-7 ATS the past eight times, including failing to cover the last four times as home chalk. Baltimore is the most run-oriented team in the league. They are not built to cover margins like this especially in a huge division game. |
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09-28-19 | SMU v. South Florida +8 | 48-21 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
South Florida has improved since switching to redshirt freshman QB Jordan McCloud. But a big reason for this handicap is a go-against SMU off its great win against rival TCU and to fade Sonny Dykes, one of my least favorite coaches. The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS the last eight times facing a below .500 opponent. South Florida was blown out 49-0 by Wisconsin in its opener. That loss doesn't look quite as bad considering the unbeaten Badgers just blew out Michigan. The Bulls then covered a road game at Georgia Tech, losing 14-10, and then buried South Carolina State at home two weeks ago, 55-16. McCloud accounted for five TD's in that victory. The Bulls were idle last week. So the Bulls will be rested and prepared while catching SMU off a big win. South Florida's defense is highly opportunistic tied for first in the country in forcing turnovers and fumbles recoverd.
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09-28-19 | USC v. Washington -10 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 11 m | Show | |
I don't see USC defeating Utah and Washington in consecutive games. Aside from a strong passing attack, the Trojans aren't as good as Washington in every other area. The gap is especially huge on defense and coaching. Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 the past couple of years and that defense remains eite. The Huskies have a balanced attack. QB Jacob Eason, a transfer from Georgia, is getting better each week in Washington's system. The Trojans are going with third-string Matt Fink at quarterback because of injuries to JT Daniels and Kedon Slovis. This will be his first road start. The Huskies have a strong pass defense along with 10 sacks and four interceptions.
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09-28-19 | Northwestern +24.5 v. Wisconsin | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 54 m | Show | |
Undefeated Wisconsin has outscored its three opponents, 145-14. The Badgers are off a smashing victory against Michigan last Saturday. All of this contributes to a very inflated line for this matchup. The Wildcats beat the Badgers by 14 points last season. Northwestern has played Wisconsin extremely tough during the last four years, winning twice and losing by 14 and nine points, respectively, in the other two games. Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald is one of the top 'dog coaches in the country. The Wildcats have covered 11 of the past 14 times they were road 'dogs. That strong record would be even more impressive, but the underdog Wildcats suffered a horrendous ATS bad beat in the closing seconds against Stanford in their opener on a safety with 20 seconds left. The Wildcats are 15-2 in their last 17 Big Ten games. One of those losses occurred to Michigan State by 21 points at home last week. That's another contributing factor explaining why this line is overinflated. Northwestern is 9-4 ATS following a defeat. They shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed by Michigan State. The Badgers, on the other hand, are fat and happy having steamrolled Michigan. They aren't going to be taking Northwestern as serious as they did the Wolverines.
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09-28-19 | Central Michigan +17 v. Western Michigan | Top | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
Central Michigan is much improved from last year's 1-11 season under new coach Jim McElwain. This improvement has come during the Chippewas' last two games, a 45-24 home win against Akron and a 17-12 road loss to Miami as a 30 1/2-point road 'dog. The Chippewas won the time of possession battle against the Hurricanes and held them to 1.6 yards rushing and 303 total yards. The Chippewas can control clock, too, versus Western Michigan in this Mid-American Conference rivalry matchup. Central Michigan's has found the right quarterback in David Moore. He's started the past two games and has accounted for 533 passing yards and three touchdowns, two via the air, with one interception. The Chippewas are not the same team that was steamrolled three weeks ago by powerful Wisconsin, 61-0, in Madison. Moore didn't start that game. These two teams are much closer than this spread. Western Michigan was hammered by a Big Ten, too, three weeks ago losing to Michigan State, 51-17. The Broncos lost to Syracuse, 52-33, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs last Saturday. Western Michigan is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games. The Broncos will be without one of their key players, injured cornerback D'Wayne Eskridge. He also is sixth on the team in receiving yards. The Chippewas have covered nine of their last 13 games and have gone 4-1-1 ATS the past six times meeting the Broncos.
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09-28-19 | Kansas v. TCU -14 | 14-51 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Kansas is going to take TCU's best punch after the Horned Frogs suffered a humbling 41-38 loss to city rival SMU last weekend. TCU was 7 1/2-point favorites in that game. The loss knocked them out of the Top-25. Gary Patterson is a no nonsense coach. He's not going to screw around here. The Horned Frogs are going to pound away at Kansas, which could be missing its leading tackler, linebacker Dru Prox. Patterson will be reminding his squad about last season's game when the Jayhawks upset the Horned Frogs, 27-26, in Kansas. The Jayhawks are improved under new coach Les Miles. They have some good skill position players particularly at running back. But TCU owns the defensive edge and has a strong advantage in the trenches. This probably isn't going to be a pretty win, but in the end I see the Horned Frogs controlling clock and winning by more than two touchdowns.
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09-27-19 | San Jose State v. Air Force -18 | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -114 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
San Jose State intercepted five passes from pass-crazy Arkansas in stunning the Razorbacks, 31-24, as 20-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. It was the first time the Spartans ever defeated an SEC foe and their first victory against any power conference opponent since 2006. You can count on one hand and be missing a finger to add up the number of times San Jose State has beaten a power conference team this century. Some of the San Jose players and coaches called it the greatest win in San Jose football history. Heady stuff for the Spartans. The school and the players celebrated in grand style with a campus rally on Monday. That's a rarity and a big deal at San Jose State. The Spartans had two wins the previous two years entering this season. Now, though, the Spartans have to travel into high altitude on a short week after returning 1,800 miles back to San Jose from Arkansas. They draw what should be an aroused Air Force team that lost to Boise State last Friday. The Falcons couldn't sustain their road victory against Colorado two weeks ago when they fell to Boise State. Now they are home again. The Spartans aren't coming up with five interceptions again. Air Force may not even throw the ball five times. The Falcons are the nation's fourth-leading rushing team. They are a physical, option-attack team that is well drilled and disciplined. It's a terrible matchup for San Jose coming off its great victory. The Falcons are tough defensively, too. Only 19 teams surrender fewer yards per game than Air Force.
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09-26-19 | Astros v. Angels +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 140 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton are all out for the season. Scheduled starting pitcher Jaime Barria has a 6.43 ERA and has lost seven straight decisions. So am I in my right mind by backing the Angels here? Yes. I'll take 1 1/2 runs with the Angels based on the situation, who isn't going to start for Houston today and the horrendous September form of slated Astros starter Wade Miley. The Astros just played last night at Seattle and were involved in a near no-hitter by Zack Greinke. That was a highly emotional game. They got into LA very early today. Astros manager AJ Hinch said Jose Altuve and George Springer won't be in the starting lineup. He wants to rest them. Carlos Correa also won't be in the lineup either because of a sore back. Barria has been bad, but Miley has been worse this month with a mind-blowing 22.09 September ERA giving up 18 runs and 23 hits in only 7 1/3 innings! Given these factors, I believe the Angels can hang in.
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09-22-19 | Saints +5.5 v. Seahawks | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 133 h 13 m | Show | |
The Saints are getting a generous amont of points against a mediocre Seahawks squad because Drew Brees is out. Teddy Bridgewater, though, is one of the better backups in the league. Bridgewater gives the Saints a running dimension from the quarterback spot they lacked from Brees. He has excellent weapons with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas being among the best at their respective positions. Offensive mastermind Seay Payton can also coach Bridgewater up with a full week to prepare. The Seahawks were outgained by nearly 200 yards at home by the winless Bengals in Week 1, lucky to escape with a victory. Seattle then caught a break this past Sunday against the Steelers when Ben Roethilsberger couldn't go in the second due to an elbow injury. Seattle's home field isn't as dominant as before and the Legion of Boom is no more. Instead the Seahawks have an inexperienced and vulnerable secondary.
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09-22-19 | Steelers +8 v. 49ers | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 133 h 12 m | Show | |
The Steelers are in must-win mode win at 0-2. The 49ers are in a letdown spot returning home after opening 2-0 with a pair of road victories. Those wins came against the Buccaneers and Bengals, though. Now the 49ers face their toughest opponent. The line is inflated because Ben Roethlisberger is out. He's replaced by Mason Rudolph. The Steelers have had bad backup quarterbacks before. Rudolph is a step above their previous second-string QB's. He was a star at Oklahoma State and looked good during preseason. The Steelers still have a good defense, an elite offensive line and solid weapons for Rudolph to succeed. San Francisco is much improved. But the 49ers still are not better than the Steelers even with the change from Roethlisberger to Rudolph. Their offense is a work-in-progress and they just lost offensive left tackle Joe Staley, who suffered a broken leng. The 49ers have holes on defense especially in the secondary. The Steelrs upgraded their secondary and showed to their fans they haven't given up on the season by trading a first-round pick for versatile defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick.
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -7.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 130 h 54 m | Show |
Jon Gruden doesn't fool me. The Raiders are bad on both sides of the ball. Just like last season. They lack skill position talent and their defense is bottom tier. The Raiders don't travel well either losing 15 of their last 17 road/neutral sites matchups going 3-13-1 ATS in those games. The Vikings have one of the best home fields in football covering 70 percent of their last 54 home games. Note this is an early start time, too. Bad news for the West Coast Raiders. Dalvin Cook is a premier running back. If the Raiders load the box to stop him they become vulnerable to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. The Vikings are hungry for a win after losing to the Packers last week.
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09-22-19 | Ravens +7.5 v. Chiefs | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 130 h 52 m | Show | |
The Ravens lost 27-24 in overtime to the Chiefs in Kansas City last season. That is their only loss during their past nine regular season games. The Ravens are itching for revenge and are better than they were last December when they met the Chiefs. The main reason for this is the emergence of Lamar Jackson as a legitimate dual threat quarterback. He has thrown the same number of touchdown passes as Patrick Mahomes this season. Jackson has upgraded weapons supporting hin and a better group of running backs. Baltimore also has the superior defense. The Chiefs are dealing with two key offensive injuries - wide receiver Tyreek Hill and left tackle Eric Fisher.
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 52 h 6 m | Show | |
Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 for the past four years and this year's defense is right up there, too. The Huskies have a powerful offensive line, a balanced attack and Georgia transfer QB Jacob Eason has taken command of Chris Peterson's Washington offense. He looked good in the Huskies' 52-20 home win against Hawaii last week. The Huskies are similar to Utah and the Utes hammered BYU, 30-12, at BYU. The Cougars rebounded from that defeat by coming up with upset victories at Tennessee and home against USC. Both of those games went overtime. BYU was outgained in each of those games, but won the turnover battle. Washington knows how to take care of the ball. Washington rolled over BYU, 35-7, last season.
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09-21-19 | Louisville v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 47 h 50 m | Show |
With just a one-point overtime victory against Louisiana Monroe, Florida State is desperate for a victory. The Seminoles are 1-2, but could be 3-0 having blown fourth-quarter leads against Virginia and Boise State. Florida State has the athletes and talent especially on offense. James Blackman has come through at quarterback and Cam Akers is one of the best running backs in the country. Scott Satterfield is doing a good job in his first season at Louisville. But he has a major rebuild job to do. The Cardinals are coming off easy wins against two overmatched opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky. This is a step-up game for the Cardinals and it's also an off-surface for them. While I think the Cardinals are improved and on the right track under Satterfield, I don't see them staying within a touchdown of highly motivated Florida State.
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09-21-19 | Michigan +3.5 v. Wisconsin | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 44 m | Show | |
Michigan has been pointing to this matchup since before the season. The Wolverines haven't looked sharp in beating Middle Tennessee and Army. They also purposely haven't shown too much. The Badgers have outscored their two opponents, 110-0. Those two foes, though, were Central Michigan and South Florida. Wisconsin still doesn't have a good quarterback. If this game would have been the season opener for both teams Michigan would have been favored. Playing option-oriented Army is a good thing for Michigan in its preparation against the ground-and-pound Badgers. Look for the Wolverines to load the box daring Wisconsin QB Jack Coan to beat them, which he can't. Wisconsin faced two weak defenses. The Badgers are not properly battle-tested for Michigan's elite athleticism and size. Note, too, the Badgers are 1-8 ATS following a victory.
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09-20-19 | Utah -3.5 v. USC | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -103 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
If USC's Clay Helton isn't the worst head football coach in a major conference than he's certainly in the discussion for that dubious distinction. The Trojans are 7-19-1 ATS (27 percent) in their last 27 games. Utah defeated USC, 41-28, last year with the score not fully indicative of how much the Utes dominated. Utah built a 34-14 lead, had 17 more first downs and nearly 350 more yards than USC. The Utes have the two best skill position players on the field in QB Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, one of the best running backs in the nation. The Trojans are starting freshman Kedon Slovis at quarterback due to injuries and transfers. Slovis had a passer rating of just 54 and was picked off three times in a road overtime loss to BYU this past Saturday. Utah met BYU in its opener and won, 30-12, on the road. The unbeaten Utes have covered 12 of their last 17 road matchups.
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09-20-19 | Calgary v. Toronto +6.5 | 23-16 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 33 m | Show | |
Calgary is in a very dangerous situation here. The Stampeders just nipped East Division leader Hamilton, 19-18, at home last Saturday after trailing by 11 points at halftime. They are on the road in a revenge spot against Montreal next week. So it could become very easy for Calgary to overlook and come out flat against the 2-9 Argonauts. The Stampeders are on short rest, while Toronto was idle last week. The Argonauts entered their bye bolstered by a smashing 46-17 road win against Ottawa. Toronto is 2-0-1 ATS in its last three games. The Stampeders have injuries and a poor recent track history in this type of role. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times laying points and 1-5 ATS the last six times they've met sub .500 opponents.
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09-19-19 | Houston +5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
I'm not buying into any Tulane hype, or that the Green Wave should be a favorite against Houston. The Cougars have one of the top dual threat QB's in the nation in D'Eriq King, who accounted for 50 touchdowns last season and is getting more comfortable operating Dana Holgorsen's offense. Tulane's Justin McMillan is better than some past Tulane QB's and he has a deep group of running backs and wide receivers. But King has plenty of help, too, especially with the return of running back Patrick Carr. Tulane just played Missouri State this past Saturday. That was a cupcake opponent. Houston's statistics are skewed, especially defensively, by having already played high-powered fourth-ranked Oklahoma and 19th-ranked Washington State. So this is a drop in class for the Cougars, who covered against both of those Top-25 opponents. The Cougars rolled past Tulane, 48-17, at home last season. The Cougars were favored by seven in that game. During the previous four seasons from 2014-2017, the Cougars were favored by eight, 27, 21 and 17 points against Tulane. Houston has covered in six of its last seven trips to Tulane. Now the Green Wave not only is expected to beat the Cougars but cover a mid-size margin doing it. I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid.
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09-15-19 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 45 m | Show |
Credit to the Raiders for beating Denver in Week 1. Jon Gruden had a good game plan and his defense played hard. But now the Raiders go from Joe Flacco, who I rank with Eli Manning as the worst starting QB in the NFL, to the best, Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders defense is porous and they are now without injured safety Johnathan Abram. The Chiefs should have no problem moving the ball up and down on the Raiders. They don't need Tyreek Hill against such a weak caliber defense. Kansas City averaged 37.5 points against the Raider last season with Mahomes throwing for six touchdowns and averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. Oakland isn't going to be able to keep up with Kansas City. Derek Carr is just a glorified dink-and-dunker. I'm not impressed with his skill position weapons either with Antonio Brown having left. Carr has been picked off nine times in his career by the Chiefs. The Raiders are missing their starting guards. They are one of the few teams that could make the Chiefs defense look good.
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 25 m | Show |
I want the Steelers at home going for me in this spot. Pittsburgh laid an egg at New England on national television this past Sunday night. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong history of playing much better at home. The Steelers' offensive line is elite. James Connor and JuJu Smith-Schuster are more than adequate replacements from the departed Le'Veon Bell and prima donna Antonio Brown. Seattle is down this season. The Seahawks were life and death to beat a bad Bengals team at home opening week. Seattle is 3-6 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season during the past four plus years. The Seahawks are down because they no longer have their fabled Legion of Boom secondary. All of those guys are gone. Their best defensive lineman, Jarran Reed, is suspended. Seattle is a ground-and-pound team. That style isn't going to work on the road against the Steelers, who won't lack motivation after last Sunday's humiliation to the Patriots. Pittsburgh ranked sixth in run defense and were tied for first in sacks last season. Russell Wilson lost his top wide receiver with Doug Baldwin retiring.
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09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins +19.5 | 43-0 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 26 m | Show | |
I understand the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL. But this number is an overreaction to what happened in Week 1 when the Dolphins were blown out by the Ravens and the Patriots crushed the Steelers in the Sunday Night nationally televised game. The early number on this game, according to the oddsmakers at the Westgate, was Patriots minus 11. Until that battering by the Ravens, the Dolphins had not lost a September home game since 2015. This is the weakest Miami team in a long time, but motivation, home field and New England offensive line injuries and state of mind counter the Patriots' huge talent and coaching edge. The Patriots have had trouble at this venue losing five of the past six times they have played at Miami. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS the past seven times hosting New England. The Patriots are without two of their best offensive linemen with center David Andrews and right tackle Marcus Cannon out. The Patriots aren't going to put Tom Brady at risk with some wide open attack when they don't need to do that to win this game. There also is no reason for the Patriots to show anything in this game. A simple, vanilla game plan featuring lots of running is what the Patriots are likely to do. The heat is going to be brutal with temperatures reaching triple digits and high humidity. Bill Belichick isn't likely to run up a score against the Dolphins, who are coached by Brian Flores. Flores was a defensive assistant to Belichick before taking the Dolphins job. The Dolphins will be taking this matchup far more serious than the Patriots because of Flores' former close association with the Patriots and also to get some redemption from last week's horror show. This is going to be Miami's Super Bowl.
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09-15-19 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Texans | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 40 h 25 m | Show | |
This is more than just a division game, but a real rivalry. It remains to be seen just how much of a dropoff there is between Nick Foles and rookie Gardner Minshew. Foles has mostly been a backup in his career, although a top-notch one. Minshew demonstrated tremendous poise in replacing Foles against the Chiefs last Sunday completing 22 of 25 passes for 275 with two touchdowns and one interception. The Jaguars are run-oriented. Leonard Fournette is their featured player not the quarterback. Minshew has underrated wide receivers. He just has to manage this game, though, for the Jaguars to hang in. The Jaguars have an upper level defense. They were sixth in defensive efficiency last season. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is one of the few who can hang against DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans are playing on a short week after an exhausting road game against the Saints this past Monday night. The Texans have not shored up their porous pass protection particularly at right tackle. Deshaun Watson was sacked six times by New Orleans and endured 11 hits. The Jaguars have held Watson to two touchdown passes in three games and just 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The Jaguars also have recorded 21 sacks in their last four games against the Texans.
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09-14-19 | Montreal +7.5 v. Saskatchewan | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 104 h 40 m | Show | |
Montreal has been a nice surprise this season. The Alouettes are back on track winning their past three games. They have been receiving excellent skill position play from QB Vernon Adams Jr., who is 6-2 as a starter this season. William Stanback and Jeremiah Johnson have become one of the better running back tandems in the CFL. The Alouettes have proven to be road warriors covering 10 of their last 13 away contests. Saskatchewan has failed to cover during its past five September games.
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09-14-19 | Hamilton +7 v. Calgary | 18-19 | Win | 100 | 37 h 29 m | Show | |
Hamilton is 9-2, but not getting enough respect here especially considering the spot. The Tiger-Cats are coming off a bye while drawing Calgary off consecutive victories against arch rival Edmonton. The Stampeders have covered only once in six games when favored this season. The teams met in Week 5 and the Tiger-Cats won, 30-23, at home. Hamilton QB Dane Evans is coming off his finest game. The Tiger-Cats are 4-1 since Evans replaced injured Jeremiah Masoli. The Tiger-Cats haven't lost by more than seven points all year. Hamilton has held their last three opponents to an average of 14.6 points a game.
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09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple +7.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
Maryland is being overrated in this spot following blowout victories against Howard, an FCS bottom feeder, and Syracuse. Both of those easy wins came at home. The Terrapins now hit the road to play a very physical, rested and well-coached opponent. The Owls had a bye last week giving them two weeks to prepare for this nonconference matchup. Temple is averaging just a shade below nine wins per year during the past four seasons. Temple's offense looked good in its opener, a 56-12 romp over Bucknell at home. The Owls may have the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference. The Owls are strong at linebacker, too. They have their top seven tacklers from last season all back. The Owls have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've been home 'dogs winning six of those games outright. A similar situational spot happened last year when the teams met in Week 3. Maryland played Temple that week sporting a 2-0 mark, with one of those victories being an impressive upset win against Texas. The game was at Maryland. Temple won, 35-14. The Owls outgained the Terps by 234 yards.
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09-09-19 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 12 m | Show |
Von Miller and Bradley Chubb may be the best pass rushing tandem in the NFL. They are in line for big games against a depleted Raiders offensive line that won't have their starting guards and likely going with untested Kolton Miller at left tackle. It's hard to imagine the Raiders getting a ground attack going against Denver minus guards Richie Incognito, who is suspended, and Gabe Jackson, out with a knee injury. I'm not high on Raiders rookie running back, Josh Jacobs. Vic Fangio is an upper level defensive coach and he's had plenty of time to game plan. The Raiders have a bottom-five defense. Indications are that the Broncos' two best playmakers, running back Philip Lindsay and Emmanuel Sanders, are back to health. That's all Joe Flacco needs to game manage a victory here for Denver.
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09-08-19 | Colts +7 v. Chargers | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 118 h 21 m | Show | |
This game has moved up to a touchdown now that Andrew Luck isn't going to play. The Colts, though, are solid everywhere. They are still a very respectable football team and offensive guru Frank Reich can coach up Jacoby Brissett, who brings a mobility to the QB position that Luck didn't have. The Colts have shown unity since Luck announced his retirement. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulders ready to prove to the world they are more than just Andrew Luck. The Chargers are missing key players, too, with safety Derwin James and offensive left tackle Russell Okung both injured and out. LA isn't likely to have its top running back, Melvin Gordon, either as he remains a holdout.
The Chargers have lost each of their past three season-openers. They were 2-5 ATS in their home games last season covering only against the Raiders and Cardinals. |
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09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +4 | 40-26 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 19 m | Show | |
The Jaguars should be closer to their AFC South Division-winning form of two seasons ago than last year's 5-11 disaster with Nick Foles taking over at quarterback from Blake Bortles. Jacksonville retains much of its elite defense that gave up the fifth-fewest points and yards last season. The Chiefs are breaking in a new defensive scheme. Their defense surrendered the second-most yards last season and is without a number of key performers, including pass rushers Justin Houston, Dee Ford and safety Eric Berry. I don't see the Chiefs' defense being any better, probably even worse, than 2018 especially early in the season. The Jaguars have revenge for a 30-14 road loss to the Chiefs last season. Jacksonville's defense played well against Patrick Mahomes, but were done in by Bortles' four interceptions, including a pick-six. The Jaguars were missing their star running back, Leonard Fournett, in that game. Foles represents a huge improvement on turnover-prone Bortles. The weather is likely to be extremely hot this time of year in Jacksonville, which would add to the Jaguars' home field advantage.
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09-07-19 | Nevada v. Oregon -23.5 | Top | 6-77 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
Oregon has won 14 straight home openers. The Ducks should have no problem extending that streak to 15 in a row hosting Nevada. Justin Herbert is in the short discussion for best QB in the country. He should find little resistance from a porous Nevada secondary. Oregon is off a brutal 27-21 loss to Auburn in which the Tigers scored the game-winning TD on a 26-yard pass with nine seconds left. Oregon has Montana on deck. So the Ducks should be fully focused for this matchup ready to take their frustrations out on a much weaker foe than Auburn. Nevada is in the opposite spot. The Wolf Pack pulled out a home victory against Purdue as a double-digit 'dog on a 56-yard field goal at the gun in their opener. Purdue had a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Wolf Pack, who couldn't stop the Boilermakers' passing attack. The Boilermakers were done in by a 5-0 turnover ratio. That's not likely to happen to a Reno opponent two straight weeks. The Wolf Pack aren't nearly as good as the Ducks and are in a huge letdown spot. Nevada nipped Oregon State at home early in the season last year and then fell, 63-44, on the road to Toledo the following week. Look for a similar pattern here.
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -3 v. Colorado | 31-34 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 58 m | Show | |
Nebraska has been waiting a year for this rematch. The Cornhuskers lost, 33-28, at home to Colorado in their opener last season. It was Scott Frost's coaching debut for Nebraska and a bitter loss for the Cornhuskers made more bitter by the Buffaloes knocking out QB Adrian Martinez. Martinez is back and better than ever. He's one of the premier QB's in the country and a level higher than Colorado QB Steven Montez. The Cornhuskers rushed for 329 yards against the Buffaloes. Colorado was fortunate to open against a weak Colorado State team. The Buffaloes weren't as sharp in that game as the final score may have indicated and are down defensively from last season. Nebraska has the balanced offense to expose Colorado's defensive shortcomings.
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09-07-19 | Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 67 h 29 m | Show | |
Purdue has an elite passing attack. The Boilermakers have a veteran QB and a deep group of receivers, including the incomparable Rondale Moore. The Boilermakers are in a kill spot playing their first home game after blowing a 31-14 fourth-quarter lead to Nevada last week in a 34-31 loss. Purdue couldn't overcome a 5-0 turnover deficit. Look for the Boilermakers to be far less sloppy and far more comfortable at home. Vanderbilt lost a number of key players from last season. The Commodores are due for a regression. They were outclassed at home by Georgia, 30-6, this past week managing just 225 yards while surrendering nearly 500 yards.
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09-06-19 | Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
Boise State often is overpriced when playing at home. That's the case here especially with the Broncos coming off an upset road victory against Florida State in their opener last week. The Broncos have failed to cover in 16 of their last 23 home games. Freshman QB Hank Bachmeier spearheaded a tremendous Boise State comeback against the Seminoles as the Broncos rallied from a 31-13 deficit. The Broncos, though, are in a big letdown spot and Bachmeier will be challenged by a strong Marshall secondary. The Thundering Herd get a rare chance to play on national TV. They may be the best team in Conference USA. While Bachmeier gets a lot of attention for his heroics, Marshall sophomore QB Isiah Green looked good in his team's 56-17 win against Virginia Military Institute last week. Green is backed by a deep of running backs and receivers.
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville | Top | 35-17 | Push | 0 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
Notre Dame is going to get its points in this one. Louisville's defense was terrible last season giving up an average of 44.1 points and 483.5 yards a game. The Cardinals ranked among the bottom-four in those important defensive categories. They are on their fourth defensive coordinator in four years. Making it worse, the Cardinals also got poor punting last season. Notre Dame averaged better than 36 points a game last year after Ian Book became its starting QB in Week 4. I can't see Louisville keeping up. The Cardinals have many questions on the offensive side of the ball. New coach Scott Satterfield seems like a good hire based on his track record at Appalachian State. But it's going to take time to fix the huge mess Bobby Petrino left him. Drawing Notre Dame for their opener is a real bad break for the Cardinals, who have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 home games and are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 nonleague games.
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09-01-19 | Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
I'm not buying that Oklahoma is more than three touchdowns better than Houston. In fact, I like Houston QB D'Eriq King more than Sooners QB Jalen Hurts. I regard King as the top QB in college football especially now that he has Dana Holgorsen as his head coach. King has the rare opportunity to showcase his skills in front of a national TV audidence with the game on ABC. Holgorsen is an offensive guru. He was head coach at West Virginia last year. The Mountaineers played Oklahoma last season and narrowly lost, 59-56. The Sooners shouldn't be laying this high of a number to such a strong offense. Oklahoma was last in the nation in pass defense in 2018 while ranking at the bottom in the Big 12 in scoring defense and total defense. The Sooners also have a question mark at kicker as the FBS' all-time leading scorer among kickers, Austin Seibert, has left. This is going to be a shootout of the highest proportions. Houston was very weak against the run last season. And that was with stud Ed Oliver. But the Cougars have defensive line depth, experience at the safety spots and get to go against the Sooners in their first game breaking in four new offensive line starters.
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08-31-19 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +4 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 172 h 41 m | Show |
Virginia Tech's defense was historically bad under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster last year. The Hokies should be improved as they can't get much worse. But it's going to take time. The Hokies gave up 31 points a game last season, which ranked 85th. They were 98th in yards allowed and their run defense ranked 106th. BC has one of the top running backs in the nation, AJ Dillon. He's fresh and healthy, something he wasn't last year. Eagles QB Anthony Brown has experience and is capable of running the offense. He has improved as a passer. The Eagles won, 31-21, against Virginia Tech last season on the road. I do think the Hokies will be better, but this isn't a good matchup for them and it's the first game. So I'll gladly accept these points.
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08-31-19 | Akron +19 v. Illinois | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
Illinois isn't nearly good enough to be laying this many points even to a low-level MAC team such as Akron. The Illini have averaged three wins during the past three seasons during the Lovie Smith era. The Illini finished 1-6 in their last seven games and and had the worst defense in the Big Ten. They ranked fifth from the bottom in the NCAA in yards allowed. They are not used to this reverse role where the pressure not only is on them to win but cover a huge number. Akron won't lack motivation playing its first game under new coach Tom Arth. The Zips have firepower. Their strength is at the skill positions with quarterback Kato Nelson and three decent wide receivers. The Zips upset Northwestern, 39-34, in their first road game last season. Illinois also played Northwestern last year and lost to the Wildcats, 24-16.
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08-30-19 | Colorado State v. Colorado -12.5 | 31-52 | Win | 100 | 154 h 50 m | Show | |
The gap has gotten wider between these two in-state rivals. That was evident last season when Colorado blasted the Rams, 45-13. I see the Buffaloes winning by at least two touchdowns again. New Colorado head coach Mel Tucker will be wanting to make a statement. He has the wide edge in athletes to accomplish that. The Buffaloes should be solid on defense under defensive-minded Tucker and their offense should pick up being more up-tempo than before under Mike MacIntyre. Steven Montez is a solid quarterback and the Buffaloes are deep at receiver. Laviska Shenault is in the argument for best wideout in the nation and the Rams are shaky at linebacker. Note this game is being played in Denver. Colorado State has failed to cover the past eight times it has played at a neutral site.
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08-30-19 | Purdue -9.5 v. Nevada | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 250 h 47 m | Show |
If I could pick one wide receiver to have on my college football team it would be Purdue's Rondale Moore. He's the most exciting player in college football in my view. This is a perfect storm of key factors that point to Purdue beating Nevada by double-digits. Moore heads up a very strong group of Purdue receivers. Even tight end Brycen Hopkins is very good for the Boilermakers. Senior QB Elijah Sindelar is underrated at this point. He's going to have a big season with so many talented receiving targets. Nevada has a very weak secondary. The Wolf Pack also are untested at quarterback, smaller than Purdue and weaker in the trenches. The Boilermakers have been pointing to this game for a long time after being humiliated, 63-14, by Auburn in the Music City Bowl. Purdue has won each of its road openers under Jeff Brohm beating Nebraska, 42-28, last year and Missouri, 35-3, two seasons ago. Those are better teams than Nevada. The Boilermakers can't misfire here knowing Vanderbilt and TCU are up next for them before they enter Big Ten action. So expect a strong, focused effort from the better team that should result in an easy victory. |
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08-28-19 | Twins -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
The Twins lead the majors in homers and rank No. 2 in runs. The White Sox are 28th in runs and 26th in homers. Expect the Twins to pad their homer lead with the wind blowing out strong to left field at 13-16 mph and facing 33-year-old Ross Detwiler, who has surrendered 15 homers in 47 1/3 innings this season. Minnesota is 41-22 on the road. That's the second-most away wins in the majors. The Twins are 8-2 in Jake Odorizzi's last 10 road starts. Odorizzi is pitching on six days rest. That's important since he is 5-0 with a 1.00 ERA when he's pitched on extra rest this year.
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08-24-19 | Hamilton v. BC +4.5 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
These teams just met two weeks ago at Hamilton. BC outgained Hamilton by 98 yards and dominated time of possession, 37:01 to 22:59. But The Tiger-Cats nipped BC, 35-34. The key was the Lions committing three turnovers while the Tiger-Cats didn't have any. I like the LIons to get their revenge. They have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played this past Thursday while Hamilton had to play last Saturday. The Lions have covered four of the past five times hosting Hamilton.
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08-23-19 | Browns v. Bucs +3 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 58 h 10 m | Show |
Beating preseason football is about finding teams who care meeting those who don't while also getting value on the line. This pattern fits the Buccaneers right now in their Friday home game against the Browns. Tampa Bay has been preparing for this matchup like it were a regular-season game. Jameis Winston figures to see his most action. The Buccaneers have a deep set of quality wide receivers and a preseason superstar in backup quarterback Ryan Griffin, who has thrown for 531 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in Tampa Bay's first two preseason contests. Browns coach Freddie Kitchens said he won't reveal how much his starters are going to play Friday, but indications are the Browns won't be treating this exhibition as serious as Tampa Bay. Cleveland is sitting at 2-0 with nothing to prove. The Browns aren't likely to use Odell Beckham Jr. and Myles Garrett because they aren't 100 percent. Cleveland is a false favorite here based on perception with its unbeaten preseason record and tremendous hype. The Bucs are home and the likely team to treat this game more serious than the Browns.
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08-22-19 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
The Dodgers simply don't lose at home. They have won 79 percent of their last 57 home games going 45-12. No baseball team can match that. Toronto went through its bullpen trying to beat the Dodgers on Wednesday. The Blue Jays came close, but lost, 2-1, in 10 innings. I don't see the Blue Jays being able to hang against the Dodgers a second straight time in a pitching matchup of rookie Jacob Waguespack versus Kenta Maeda. Prior to Wednesday, the Dodgers' last six victories were by an average of 8.3 runs. Waguespack has a 4.20 ERA. The Dodgers rank in the top four in runs and homers. Maeda has a history of pitching much better at Dodger Stadium. That history has held up this season where he is 6-3 with a 2.84 ERA at home. LA has won eight of his past 11 home starts. Toronto has dropped 14 of its last 17 interleague games, including the past eight when going against a righty starter. |