Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-01-18 | Grizzlies +8 v. Pistons | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
There's a buzz in Detroit today with Blake Griffin set to make his Pistons debut. But this buzz can't hide the fact the Pistons are 1-8 in their last nine games, have failed to cover the past five times they've been favored and they no longer have Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley, their two leading scorers. They were traded to the Clippers as part of the deal for Griffin. The Grizzlies have signaled they are in rebuild mode after declaring their intentions to sit out Tyreke Evans until he can be traded. Mike Conley is out for the season. But Memphis still is a strong defensive team - ranking sixth in fewest points allowed per game - and have been playing well covering seven of its last nine games. Memphis opened its current road trip with a four-point road loss to Indiana Wednesday. Now they are nearly getting that many points against the Pistons, who have been much worse than the Pacers. Griffin could make a difference, but there's going to be an adjustment period. Memphis 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times following a loss. The Pistons aren't good enough to cover a spread this high. They are 2-5-1 ATS the eight times this season they've been favorites of six points or more. They are 1-5 in their last six home games and 3-13-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400.
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01-31-18 | Knicks +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 73-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is Boston's fifth game in nine days and fifth different venue. The Celtics haven't played at home since Jan. 21. So the Celtics' focus could be off and their energy level down. Boston played Golden State extremely tough before losing by four points this past Saturday. The Celtics then edged Denver by one point in the rocky mountain high altitude in another tough game this past Monday. Now they are back on East Coast time drawing a division rival. The Knicks have been playing more respectable on the road covering six of their last 10 away games. Boston is 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times hosting opponents with losing road marks. New York has won two in a row beating the Suns and Nets last night by 16 points. Fatigue shouldn't be a factor for Brooklyn, though. None of the Nets logged more than 32 minutes Tuesday night and the team had been idle the previous three days. The Celtics are shorthanded in the backcourt with Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart both out. |
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01-30-18 | Cavs -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 114-125 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
The Pistons have become one of the worst teams in the NBA since point guard Reggie Jackson suffered an ankle injury. They've gone 3-12 following Jackson's injury and have lost eight in a row. Detroit's latest defeat came to Cleveland, 121-104, as 7 1/2-point road underdogs two days ago. Now look at the spread. It's much lower. Detroit's home-court advantage isn't nearly worth that. The Pistons have lost and failed to cover during their past five games at Little Caesars Arena, losing to three Eastern Conference teams worse than the Cavaliers during this span. Cleveland has now beaten the Pistons in its last three meetings, winning those games by an average of 25.7 points per game. The Cavaliers are playing better with two straight victories. If newly acquired Blake Griffin doesn't play, and he's not expected to play, the Cavaliers will have the four best players on the court. The big news is the Pistons acquired Griffin on Monday. Detroit gave up its two leading scorers, Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley, as part of the cost to get Griffin. Bradley is a premier defensive guard.
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01-29-18 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -3 | 74-63 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
Wisconsin is in revenge mode and draws Nebraska playing for the fourth time in eight days. The Badgers are way down after losing four senior starters from a year ago, but they still are tough at home where they are 9-3 with a winning spread mark. The Cornhuskers have been overacheiving, but face a heavy fatigue factor in this matchup. Nebraska nipped the Badgers at home, 63-59, on Jan. 9. Wisconson missed 14 of 19 3-point shots in that gamd and only got to the free throw line 10 times missing six free throws. I see a reversal happening here. |
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01-28-18 | Connecticut v. Temple -6 | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Circumstances line up well here for Temple. The Owls played one of their worst games of the season losing 75-42 on the road to eighth-ranked Cincinnati on Tuesday. Connecticut, on the other hand, is coming off a huge upset home win against SMU on Wednesday. The Huskies are 2-6 ATS following a spread cover. The Huskies are in a letdown spot and their concentration is further going to be tested by breaking news that the program is being investigaged by the NCAA. Connecticut remains without second-leading scorer Terry Larrier, who is out with a nose injury.
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01-27-18 | Nets +11 v. Wolves | 97-111 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves are a rising power with an impressive 24-9 record against fellow Western Conference opponents. Strangely, though, the Timberwolves struggle versus the lesser Eastern Conference going 7-11 against those teams. The Nets have been huge underdog money-makers all season especially on the road where they have covered 16 of 24 times in that role for 67 percent. When catching four or more points, the Nets are 20-8 on the season for 71 percent. D'Angelo Russell has been back for four games now. He looked the best he has since returning from a knee injury in the Nets' last game. Brooklyn was blasted in that game, however, by the Bucks losing 116-91 last night. Nets coach Kenny Atkinson questioned the effort of his team following that loss. So I expect the Nets to play very hard in this matchup. They are 7-3 ATS the past 10 times when playing without rest. They also had covered six in a row on the road until that loss to the Bucks. The Timberwolves haven't had All-Star guard Jimmy Butler in their last four games. He's a game-time decision for tonight.
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01-27-18 | Tennessee-Martin v. Tennessee Tech -6 | 55-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm going to fade Tennessee-Martin in this spot. The Skyhawks are playing on the road for the fourth straight time. They also are coming off a huge upset of Jacksonville State from two days ago. The Skyhawks have lost 10 of 13 road games this season. |
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01-27-18 | Rutgers +8.5 v. Penn State | Top | 43-60 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
Rutgers is the wrong team to be laying a big number against especially in a monster letdown spot. That's the position Penn State is in today. The Nittany Lions are off their biggest win of the season, stunning 13th-ranked Ohio State on the road, 82-79, this past Thursday night on a long 3-pointer by Tony Carr at the buzzer. Now, less than two days later, the Nittany Lions face the No. 6 ranked defense in the nation. Rutgers is weak offensively. But the Scarlet Knights give up the sixth-fewest points per game in the country and rank 12th in defensive field goal percentage. They have allowed 62.1 points per game during their last six games, which is their season average. Rutgers upset Penn State as an 8-point road 'dog last season and are in great position to repeat.
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01-27-18 | St. John's v. Butler -9 | 45-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on for Butler. The Bulldogs are back on track and surely don't want to be the first Big East team to lose to St. John's this season. They lost at home to St. John's last season so they surely should be ready this time. The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 13 lined home games. |
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01-26-18 | 76ers v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 97-78 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
The 76ers beat the Spurs for the first time in six years, 112-106, at home a little more than three weeks ago. I can't see the 76ers sweeping the Spurs by winning in San Antonio, a place they haven't won at since 2004. The prideful Spurs are down Kawhi Leonard, but still have been dominant at AT&T Center going 20-3 SU, 16-6-1 ATS at home this season. They are 15-1 in their last 16 home contsts winning their last six home games by an average of 13.3 points a game. The 76ers have turned the corner. So they are far more of a threat to end their 13-game losing skid at San Antonio than in previous years. But they must prove they have the maturity and discipline to beat what should be a fired-up Spurs club bent on revenge. Gregg Popovich has made sure he has a fresh LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol for this game. Newly-appointed starting point guard Dejounte Murray is in the midst of a break-out type season.The Spurs have a deep bench, too. They aren't just about Leonard.
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01-26-18 | Lakers v. Bulls -4 | 108-103 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
The spot and situation set up for Chicago here. The question is can the Bulls be trusted to cover a margin at home? I believe they are. Since opening 3-20, the Bulls have turned things around going 15-10. Chicago has been one of the hottest ATS teams covering 20 of its past 26 games. The Bulls have won nine of their last 13 home games with the losses during this span occurring to the Warriors, Rockets, Raptors and Trail Blazers in overtime. Chicago has covered 10 of its last 13 at United Center. The Bulls have done the job versus bad teams going 8-0-1 ATS versus sub .500 opponents. The Lakers enter the road fat and happy after a 3-0 homestand with the last victory coming against the Celtics, 108-107, this past Tuesday. LA hasn't been nearly as good on the road going 6-14 away from Staples Center. The Bulls have revenge for a November loss to the Lakers when they weren't playing nearly as well and are coming off an embarrassing 14-point road loss to the 76ers from two nights ago. That was a rare flat game for the Bulls and it occurred following a tough road overtime loss to the Pelicans. The Bulls are back home now, rested and ready.
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01-26-18 | Wagner +3.5 v. St Francis PA | 91-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Sources point me to Wagner. The Seahawks have been playing good ball winning five of their last six games They just beat St. Francis, 73-64, eight days ago. Wagner dominated the boards in that game outrebounding St. Francis, 36-23. |
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01-25-18 | Knicks v. Nuggets -4.5 | 118-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
The Knicks are a horrendous 6-18 SU, 10-14 ATS away from home. The Nuggets are 17-6 at Pepsi Center with a winning point spread mark there. Given the Knicks' high fatigue ranking - fifth game in nine days - and terrible defense, I'm not going to get fancy. I'll just lay the points. New York is giving up an average of 125 points in its last two games. This is the Knicks' sixth straight road game. They have a far more winnable game on Friday against the Suns. Denver has a number of underrated players with Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray coming to mind. The Nuggets are well rested, too, having last played on Monday.
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01-25-18 | Wizards +5.5 v. Thunder | 112-121 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Thunder have been terrible as chalk going 7-13 ATS versus foes with a winning record and 13-27 overall when favored. Washington actually has a worse record than Oklahoma City by just one game and has more All-Stars than the Thunder do. The Wizards should have Otto Porter back and are out for redemption following a horrendous 98-75 loss to Dallas on Monday. So expect a strong effort.
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01-25-18 | SMU -5.5 v. Connecticut | 52-63 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
UConn has failed to cover in 22 of its last 30 home games and I don't like its chances here. SMU have the sixth stingiest defense in the country holding foes to 62 points a game. The combination of the Mustangs' defense and outstanding outside shooting should mean a double-digit victory. UConn just can't concentrate on one SMU player because every Mustang starter averages double figures. The Huskies are down second-leading scorer Terry Larrier. He's out with a fractured sinus wall.
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01-24-18 | Temple +14 v. Cincinnati | 42-75 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 56 m | Show | |
Temple has revenge for a narrow 55-53 loss to Cincinnati earlier this month. The Bearcats won that game with a late basket. So this spread is out of whack especially given Temple's quality defense that gives up less than 69 points a game. I envision another defensive struggle here so this many points should be more than enough for the Owls to cover. The Owls are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus the Bearcats.
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01-24-18 | Suns +7.5 v. Pacers | 101-116 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
This point spread is too high considering the situation. The Suns have covered all three game of their current road trip so far and should be motivated for this matchup since the Pacers embarrassed them at home just 10 days ago. Despite that loss, the Suns still have covered 11 of the last 14 in the series, including going 6-1 at Indiana. This is Indiana's first home game following a five-game road swing that concluded with the the Pacers upsetting the Spurs on Sunday night. Myles Turner, the Pacers' best big man, has been out with a right elbow injury and is questionable here. The Pacers are a bit fat and happy being back home following their highly-satisfying victory against San Antonio. The Pacers also have a much more important game on deck when they play the Cavaliers on Friday.
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01-24-18 | Nebraska +1.5 v. Rutgers | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
After facing Ohio State and Michigan, Nebraska drops down in class here. The Cornhuskers upset the Wolverines and nearly did the same to the Buckeyes. The Cornhuskers have revenge motivation for a 65-64 loss to Rutgers from last season. Nebraska had defeated the Scarlet Knights five straight times before then. Both teams are improved. But I'm going to ride the Cornhuskers, who are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games. |
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01-23-18 | Celtics -4 v. Lakers | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
Technically speaking the Celtics haven't won in the United States since Jan. 6. They did beat the 76ers in London. But Boston hasn't won since losing three straight games, all at home. It's the first time Boston has dropped three consecutive games all season. Now the Celtics head West to warm weather and to find their groove. I see that happening here against the Lakers. I have a lot of confidence in Brad Stevens. The Celtics meet the Clippers on Wednesday followed by games at Golden State on Saturday and Denver on Monday. Those will not be easy games. So this is the matchup the Celtics need to win to get out of their funk. The Lakers have been playing better. But this is a lottery team that has backcourt injuries. Lonzo Ball is out with a knee injury and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has missed the past two games with an Achilles injury. That's LA's starting backcourt. The Lakers are 2-8 without Ball, their point guard. Boston has covered 71 percent of its road games this season. Kyrie Irving is back so the Celtics are healthy. Boston rolled past the Lakers, 107-96, in the earlier meeting this season on Nov. 8. The Celtics achieved that 11-point victory despite not having Al Horford and losing Jayson Tatum for the second half because of an ankle injury.
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01-22-18 | Suns v. Bucks -4.5 | 105-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
First the bad news. Giannis Antetokonumpo isn't going to play. Now the good news, the point spread is greatly reduced because of that and the Bucks still should be able to take care of business against a bottom-feeder they have dominated. Milwaukee has defeated Phoenix five consecutive times, including 113-107 at Phoenix on Nov. 22. The Bucks didn't have Antetokounmpo for that game either. But former Sun Eric Bledsoe and Kris Middleton made up for Antetokonumpo's absence by scoring a combined 70 points. The Bucks will have Malcolm Brogdon back after he missed the Bucks' last game. The Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode going 1-4 in their last five games. Their losses during this time frame have come to teams much better than the Suns - Warriors, Heat twice and 76ers. Phoenix, by contrast, is fat and happy coming off a 108-100 upset road victory against the Nuggets. The Suns had dropped their previous three road matchups by a combined 44 points. Phoenix has failed to cover five of the last six times following a straight-up victory.
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01-22-18 | 76ers v. Grizzlies +3.5 | 101-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
The 76ers are riding an impressive three-game win streak beating three of the best Eastern Conference teams - the Raptors, Celtics and Bucks. The 76ers host the Bulls on Wednesday. But first is this nonconference matchup against Memphis. The 76ers are talented. They also are young, possibly short-handed in the backcourt with JJ Redick out and Jerryd Bayless questionable due to a sore wrist and excited like the rest of Philadelphia about the Eagles reaching the Super Bowl following Sunday's upset victory against the Vikings. So the 76ers may lack the focus necessary to win a road game against a top-five defensive team. The Grizzlies are under-the-radar. They are 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last six games. They also are 5-0-1 ATS during their past six home contests and have won six of their last eight at FedEx Forum. Memphis also has dominated this series beating the 76ers nine straight times.
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -8.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -103 | 100 h 4 m | Show |
Three big reasons why I like the Patriots: Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and New England's defense. The first two reasons are obvious. The combination of home-field and Brady versus Blake Bortles are worthy of the point spread right there. Jacksonville's defense was outstanding during much of the regular season. But Brady is at his finest against the type of zone cover style the Jaguars use. The Jaguars' defense also has been wearing down after carrying their offense for so many games. Jacksonville has given up an average of 32 points during its last four road games. It's the Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest points since Week 5. By far, the Patriots have the more playoff experience, big-game experience and discipline. All of that is going to matter here. The Patriots can win by talent, or by scheme and coaching. The Jaguars can't outscheme the Patriots. Brady has a balanced attack. He'll be able to slice up the Jaguars' defense with quick slants and utilizing versatile Dion Lewis. The Patriots also are expected to get back wide receiver Chris Hogan and running back James White, one of the best pass-catching runners out of the backfield in the NFL. Hogan is a big upgrade on Phillip Dorsett and gives Brady another strong receiving target to go with Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola. The Jaguars' offense looked great against the Steelers last week. But Jacksonville has yet to achieve trusted consistency on offense relying heavily on rookie Leonard Fournette. Before putting up 45 points on the Steelers last week, the Jaguars had scored only 10 points during each of their last two games. The Patriots aren't going to let Fournette beat them. I don't see Bortles, one of the most inaccurate throwers in the league, and his inexperienced wide receiving corps keeping up with Brady.
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01-20-18 | Raptors v. Wolves -3 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves are in stop-the-pain mode and catch the Raptors off a huge, physical 86-83 home win against the Spurs last night. That was a hugely satisfying victory for the Raptors. It's hard to imagine they are going to be as hungry for this non-conference matchup as the Timberwolves, losers of two in a row. Minnesota hasn't lost three consecutive games all season. But the Timberwolves are off back-to-back road losses to the Magic and Rockets. They looked past the Magic and paid the price. There's no shame in losing to the Rockets at Houston especially with James Harden back in the Rockets' lineup like he was for that game. The Timberwolves are 18-6 at Target Center this season. Their last six home games have all been double-digit victories, including wins against the Cavaliers. Thunder and Trail Blazers.
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01-20-18 | Montana v. Montana State +7 | 67-52 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Granted Montana is playing well. However, I want the home underdog going for me in this state rivalry matchup. |
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01-20-18 | Thunder +3.5 v. Cavs | 148-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Lot of superstars with a lot of egos. They're all going to be together here in this nationally televised day game. This is just the fifth time the Thunder will be underdogs this season. They are 3-1 ATS as 'dogs. Oklahoma City has gone 21-13 since opening 4-7. The Thunder have won three in a row. Cleveland is 1-4 in its last five games and has been terrible as a favorite failing to cover 12 of the last 13 times in that role. Oklahoma City has the far superior defense and just got back defensive ace Andre Roberson. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday so their energy and pride levels should be off the charts.
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01-19-18 | Spurs +6.5 v. Raptors | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
No Kawhi Leonard here. Rudy Gay reamins out, too. Still, this is too many points for the Raptors to lay to an elite team. Gregg Popovich is an "A" coach and he has a strong bench. Even without Leonard, the Spurs have gone 25-12 in the games he's missed. Toronto hasn't been playing that well losing two of its past three games and going 2-4 ATS in its last six. Only once in their last six games have the Raptors won by more than five points.
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01-19-18 | Indiana +15.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 57-85 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
There are a lot of peaks and valleys during the long college basketball season. Right now Indiana is playing well and Michigan State isn't. The Hoosiers have won five of their last six, including their last three. Indiana is playing tremendous defense, getting strong play from Juwan Morgan and rebounding production from its guards. Michigan State would be 0-3 in its last three games if not for a home overtime victory against Rutgers. The Spartans are 1-6 ATS the past seven times playing an above .500 opponent. They are going to look to run more being at home. Indiana, though, ranks No. 2 in the Big Ten in steals and turnover margin at plus 3.7. Michigan State, by contrast, ranks near the bottom in turnover margin at minus 3.2. The Hooisers have covered the past five times they've met opponents with a winning percentage above .600. They have stepped up their play enough where they can be trusted to hang in on the road against the Spartans especially taking this big of a number.
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01-18-18 | Sabres v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
The Buffalo Bills ended their long playoff drought this season. The Buffalo Sabres won't. The Sabres, who last made the postseason in 2011, are the second-worst team in the NHL behind only Arizona. No team has fewer goals than the Sabres with 99. They are on pace to score the third-fewest goals in franchise history. This is part of why I like the Rangers to win by more than one goal in tonight's game. There is much more, though. New York is coming off an impressive 5-1 home victory against Philadelphia two days ago. That was the Rangers' 14th victory in their last 19 home games. Buffalo is off a rare victory, too. The Sabres defeated Columbus, 3-1, a week ago. Buffalo has not played since in accordance with the league-mandated break for each team. So the Sabres figure to be extremely rusty. They are 1-4 the past five times they played following being idle for three or more days. You have to go back to Oct. 23-24 to find the last time the Sabres won consecutive games. The Rangers just don't want to give back that victory they earned against the Flyers by losing this game. This is a kill spot for them - and I see them routing the rusty and punchless Sabres. Taking a nice plus price on the puck line is a good reward.
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01-18-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Youngstown State +3 | 92-78 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker has the wrong favorite here. Illinois-Chicago should not be a conference road favorite. The Flames have won only once in eight away contests this season. |
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01-17-18 | Fresno State v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 77-73 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
San Diego State is the top defensive team in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs are 7-1 at home and have revenge for a home loss to Fresno State last season. Fresno State could be missing guards Jaron Hopkins and Jahmel Taylor. They are the third and fourth leading scorers on the Bulldogs. Taylor ranks fifth in the Mountain West in 3-point shooting percentage. Neither player traveled with the team on Tuesday because they are not technically enrolled in school. There's the possibility this problem may not get straighten out before tip-off. San Diego State is at its best against smaller, perimeter-shooting based teams such as Fresno State. So the loss of two key guards really would hurt the Bulldogs. Fresno State has failed to cover in six of its last seven Mountain West Conference matchups. |
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01-17-18 | Duquesne +6 v. St. Louis | 63-76 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
The marketplace has been slow to see the full improvement with Duquesne this season. The Dukes rank among the top three teams in the Atlantic 10 Conference in defense and I believe they can hang with St. Louis. They have won and covered four of their last five games. |
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01-16-18 | Drake +6.5 v. Northern Iowa | 54-68 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
I like backing underdogs in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference especially here with much-improved Drake. The Bulldogs have won and covered five of their last six games. I see them hanging in against Northern Iowa. |
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01-16-18 | Wolves v. Magic +8 | 102-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Fresh off their first 5-0 homestand since 2001, the Timberwolves get ready to face a big road test against the Rockets on Thursday. But first Minnesota must play at Orlando today. It's going to be difficult for the talented - and youthful - Timberwolves to take the Magic serious. Orlando has lost seven in a row. I smell a dangerous situation for the Timberwolves here. I suspect Minnesota is going to be too overconfident for this game. Orlando is more competitive now that its two leading scorers, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, are healthy. The Magic have lost by seven points or fewer in five of their last seven defeats. The Magic have had three full days to get ready for this matchup having last played on Friday. Minnesota is a sparkling 23-6 versus Western Conference foes. However, the Timberwolves are a perplexing 6-10 against Eastern Conference teams. They have a bad history, too, at Orlando losing eight of the past nine times there. The Magic have covered eight of the last 10 games against the Timberwolves. Minnesota won by just six when they hosted the Magic earlier this season.
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01-15-18 | Maryland +7 v. Michigan | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Maryland has had Michigan's number winning five of the last six times the teams have met, including a victory in Ann Arbor last season. The Terrapins catch the Wolverines off a huge 82-72 win against rival Michigan State this past Saturday. I doubt the Wolverines can regain their full intensity for this matchup following that huge win. Maryland is out for redemption having suffered a 91-69 loss to Ohio State on Thursday.
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01-14-18 | Pacers v. Suns +4 | 120-97 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
Granted, asking the Suns to cover a short number carries a certain risk. Phoenix has some young talent, but is in clear rebuild mode. Still, the spot, situation and history set up well for the Suns to stay close - if not pull the outright upset. The Pacers won't have center Myles Turner, their best big man and second-best player next to Victor Oladipo. He'll miss a third straight game due to an elbow injury. Indiana takes to the road for the first time in 11 days fat and happy after overcoming a 22-point deficit to defeat the Cavaliers, 97-95, on Friday night. The Pacers have lost their last three away matchups falling by a combined 57 points to the Bucks, Bulls and Pistons. This marks only the Pacers' third game versus a Western Conference opponent since Dec. 14. Indiana lost to Dallas by four points at home and were blown out by Minnesota at home by 17 points the past two times it faced a Western Conference foe. The last time Indiana played a road game against a Western Conference team was way back on November 29. The Suns aren't as good as the Timberwolves and Mavericks. But they are home where they have covered five of the last six times against the Pacers. All together, the Suns have covered 11 of the last 13 times versus the Pacers. Phoenix also should be motivated after a 112-95 home loss to Houston this past Friday. The Suns were short-handed in the backcourt, but expect to have back point guard Isaiah Canaan and swingman Josh Jackson. The return of Canaan frees up rising superstar Devin Booker to play other positions besides point guard setting up favorable matchups. The Suns have responded well following a blowout home loss covering 72 percent of the time in their next game during the past 27 instances. They also are 6-1-2 ATS the past nine times after not covering the spread in their previous game.
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 155 h 49 m | Show |
The oddsmaker isn't giving the Vikings enough credit here. Minnesota's home field advantage is worth the spread alone - and the Vikings are much superior to the Saints. Minnesota is 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Vikings are 7-1 at home, including defeating the Saints, 29-19, opening week. New Orleans has lost and failed to cover in its past three road games. The Saints are 4-3 SU in their last seven games and 2-6 ATS during their past eight games. Drew Brees is the best quarterback on the field. But he doesn't have the receiving talent he's had in past years and is going against the best defense in football. The Vikings have no weaknesses especially on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up the fewest yards per game and fewest points per game at 15.8. Minnesota also ranked No. 2 in run defense and pass defense. Case Keenum is having a magical and career season. He's mobile and can rely on two solid running backs plus good receivers headed by Adam Thielen, who had the fifth most receiving yards in the league. Stefon Diggs is highly effective when healthy, which he is, and Kyle Rudolph is one of the best red zone tight ends. Both Diggs and Rudolph scored eight touchdowns this season. Another plus for Minnesota's offense is rookie center Pat Elfein is back practicing after being out and is likely to play. He's had an outstanding season. The Saints defense is improved, but is back to being shaky due to multiple injuries and fatigue. The Saints peaked during the middle part of the season in October and November. They've only played really well once in their last seven games. They lost to the Buccaneers in Week 17 surrendering 445 yards. The Saints defense has been on the field for 152 plays during the last two weeks, a massive amount, while the Vikings enjoyed a well-earned bye this past week. The combination of being down four defensive starters from the start of season and a heavy fatigue factor is going to leave the Saints defense highly vulnerable, while the Saints offense isn't going to be able to generate enough points to stay with Minnesota being on the road and operating against the premier defense in football.
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7.5 | 45-42 | Loss | -100 | 149 h 52 m | Show | |
I could write this analysis in two words: Blake Bortles. He's not beating the Steelers on the road. No matter how good Jacksonville's defense is, the Jaguars can't beat an elite foe on the road with Bortles behind center. He's too turnover-prone and inaccurate. The Steelers' run defense has taken a hit with Ryan Shazier out, but they will load the box just like the Bills did in holding the Jaguars to 10 points at home this past Sunday. Leonard Fournette isn't nearly as healthy and fresh as he was when the Jaguars stunned the Steelers at Heinz Field in Week 5. Bortles didn't play well in that game either. It was the Jaguars' defense that came up with five interceptions that set up that victory. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong history at home and in cold weather. Jacksonville hasn't played a cold weather game all season. The forecast is for temperatures in the 20s with a chance of snow. Antonio Brown should return for the Steelers. Even if he doesn't, Roethlisberger has a balanced attack. The Jaguars defense has to play things straight knowing Le'Veon Bell can beat them on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield while Roethlisberger has downfield targets with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant. It's just an added plus if Brown is in the lineup, too. |
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01-13-18 | Stanford +4 v. Washington | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm going to take the points in this battle of two surprise, overachieving teams. Stanford has won and covered three in a row. Washington already has surpassed last season's Pac-12 win total. The Huskies, though, have been fortunate going 9-1 in games decided by less than 10 points. The Huskies have covered just one of their last eight home contests.
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 55 h 30 m | Show | |
Too much respect is being given to the Falcons here and not enough to the Eagles. The oddsmaker has overadjusted to Nick Foles being the Eagles quarterback. The Eagles are home, by far the more rested team, have the superior defense and an edge in special teams. The Eagles will win this game with defense and a strong ground game. The Falcons have the more name players on offense, but Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman all had down seasons especially compared to last season. Ryan has not thrown more than one touchdown pass during his last seven games. Jones scored just three touchdowns this season. Freeman rushed for 214 fewer yards than last season and accounted for eight touchdowns after scoring 13 touchdowns last season. Philadelphia was unbeaten at home this season until deciding to rest many of its starters in Week 17 during a loss to Dallas. The Eagles hold a strong homefield edge made moreso by cold weather, which the Falcons have yet to encounter this season. There's also a fatigue factor to consider. While many of the main Eagles have been off for nearly three weeks, the Falcons are playing in their third road game in four weeks. The Falcons have had to play either an above .500 team, or division rival, during each of the last 10 weeks. That's not only a physical drain, but a mental one, too.
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01-12-18 | Nets +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Should the worst team in the NBA be laying points, especially this many, to any opponent? My answer is no. Brooklyn is four games better than Atlanta in the standings. It's not a fluke. The Nets are the better team. The spot is ripe, too, for the Nets to defeat the Hawks. Atlanta is returning home following a five-game, nine day road swing fat and happy after upsetting the Nuggets in Denver two nights ago. Focus could be a real problem for the youthful, rebuiilding Hawks especially knowing nine of their next 10 games will be played at Philips Arena their home base. By contrast, the Nets should be extremely fired-up after being embarrassed at home by the Pistons, 114-80, Wednesday night. That was the Nets' worst home loss of the season. Brooklyn had been below-the-radar prior to that loss having lost by only one point in overtime to the Raptors in their previous game and coming within five points or fewer during their past five games before that. The Nets have the second-best ATS mark in the league at 25-16, including covering six in a row until the Detroit debacle. The Nets have covered 73 percent of their last 15 away games, too. Brookly still aspires to be a playoff team, at this point, being six games out of the final playoff spot in the East. The Hawks have no such aspirations.
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01-11-18 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | 121-115 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Take away Blake Griffin, Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari, Austin Rivers and Milos Teodosic and the Clippers shouldn't be a road favorite against the Kings especially carrying a heavy fatigue like they do for this matchup. The Clippers are playing for the fourth time in six days, third time in five days and on back-to-back nights. They are in a huge letdown spot after stunning the Warriors, 125-106, at Golden State last night. Lou Williams was the hero for the Clippers against the Warriors scoring 50 points. Williams is having a fantastic season. He's the leading candidate for Sixth Man of the Year honors. Williams, however, has a history of not being nearly as effective when his minutes go up. Williams has logged 76 minutes in his past two games spanning the past three days. It wouldn't shock me if his shooting was off today - and the Clippers have no other consistent scorers to rely on with their many injuries. The Kings are more respectable with De'Aaron Fox back in the lineup. Fox scored 18 points and dished off seven assists when the Kings defeated the Nuggets by eight points at home three games ago. The Clippers and Kings meet again Saturday at Staples Center so the Kings definitely want to get the home victory. |
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01-11-18 | Flames v. Lightning -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
Calgary has managed to win four in a row - all by one goal. But I see this as a kill spot for Tampa Bay, the best team in the NHL. So I'm laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line in return for a strong plus price. The Lightning leads the NHL in goals scored while giving up the second-fewest goals. While the Flames have to be fat and happy picking up four consecutive victories, the Lightning should be primed for an all-out effort sensing a challenge at home and not playing again for a week. Tampa Bay has won five of its last six games by more than one goal.
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01-10-18 | LSU v. Arkansas -9 | 75-54 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Arkansas is in stop-the-pain mode following road losses to Mississippi State and Auburn. But now the Razorbacks return home where they have won the past 11 times dating back to last season, covering five of their last six at Bud Walton Arena. They catch LSU in a letdown spot. The Tigers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 69-68 road upset of then No. 11 ranked Texas A&M. LSU achieved this victory by coming back from a five-point deficit with 12.4 seconds left. LSU immediately lost following big wins against Michigan in the Maui Invitational, Houston at home and Memphis on the road. This is a pattern with the Tigers, who are 6-15-1 ATS following a victory. The Razorbacks lead the SEC in scoring and field goal percentage. They hold a tremendous home-court advantage.
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01-10-18 | Magic +10.5 v. Bucks | 103-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
I understand it's difficult to get behind Orlando, which has lost 14 of its last 15 and is 3-12 ATS during this span. I will point out the Magic led both the Cavaliers and Mavericks at halftime during their last two games and that the Magic have their two best scorers, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, healthy again. But much of this handicap is a fade on the Bucks. Only twice since December - a span of 17 games - have the Bucks won by double-digits. Milwaukee has failed to cover during its past seven games versus opponents with a losing record. The Bucks also host Golden State on Friday in their next game. Milwaukee then goes on the road to take on the Heat and Wizards Sunday and Monday. So the backdoor should swing wide open for the Magic in case the Bucks do build up a lead. There would be no reason for Jason Kidd to play his starters big minutes here especially super star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been dealing with sore knees and even recently sat out a game.
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01-10-18 | Mavs v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Charlotte is poised to make a move. The Hornets are coming off a 3-1 West Coast trip highlighted by a victory against the Warriors. Charlotte is feeling confident and rested having last played on Friday. The Hornets are just 15-23, but they also have played the toughest schedule in the NBA in terms of opponent's winning percentage. Charlotte's schedule lightens up starting here. Dallas is playing for the fifth time in eight days and without rest. The Mavericks just defeated the Magic, 114-99, at home last night. Dallas has beaten some good teams - Spurs, Wizards, Raptors, Bucks and Thunder - but is 9-20 the past 29 times when facing opponents with a losing record, including 4-11 during the last 15 instances. The Hornets average 105 points a game. Dallas is 3-20 when giving up triple-digits. The Mavericks are vulnerable to Dwight Howard being one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Howard ranks fourth in the league in rebounding.
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01-10-18 | UCF v. Connecticut +1 | 53-62 | Win | 102 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
There are a lot of ebbs and flows to the college basketball season. Connecticut was going through a low period. But I see a buy sign now on the Huskies following their 70-65 win against East Carolina especially being home. The Huskies have won the last seven times against Central Florida. |
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01-09-18 | Heat v. Raptors -3.5 | 90-89 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
The Raptors have won five in a row averaging 121.8 points per game during this span. |
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01-09-18 | Ball State v. Ohio -1 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Ohio is 7-1 at home this season and catches Ball State traveling out of Indiana for the first time since before Thanksgiving. Often times a team that had a long winning streak just end doesn't play well in their next game. Ball State is in that position. The Cardinals had their nine-game win streak snapped this past Saturday losing by 20 points to Buffalo at home. Buffalo exposed the Cardinals' inconsistent perimeter game and lack of size. Ohio can do the same. The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road contests after playing three or more home games in a row. Ball State isn't expected to have starting guard Jontrell Walker either. He was supsended indefinitely on Saturday after being charged with domestic battery.
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01-09-18 | Georgetown +7.5 v. St. John's | Top | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
I liked and respected Chris Mullin as a basketball player. But I don't think much of his coaching abilities. And I don't believe his St. John's team is good enough to be laying this many points to Georgetown. The Red Storm have yet to win a Big East game going 0-4. They are second-to-last in the conference in rebounding differential and have a weak perimeter defense. Georgetown averages nearly 81 points. St. John's averages 71.8 points, last in the conference. St. John's continues to be without injured Marcus LoVett and it has shown in bad home losses to DePaul and Providence. The Hoyas have covered all three of their lined road games this season. The line is high because the Hoyas are coming off a 90-66 home loss to Creighton. The good news, though, about that loss was that Georgetown's two best players, Jessie Govan and Markus Derrickson, played reduced mintues. Both should be fresh and fired-up for this matchup.
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01-08-18 | Alabama -4 v. Georgia | 26-23 | Loss | -108 | 132 h 57 m | Show | |
I want Alabama going for me here. The Tide beat Clemson in impressive style while Georgia had to launch a monster comeback to defeat Oklahoma in double overtime. The Tide had the less taxing bowl playoff game and a shorter distance to travel back home from New Orleans. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are coming off a very dificult game in which they came back from a 31-17 halftime deficit and had to return all the way back from the West Coast having defeated the Sooners in southern California. Alabama and Georgia shared common opponents Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Combining those games, the Tide came out with a plus 279 yardage mark against those four common foes to Georgia's plus 115. The Tide also recorded the better offensive and defensive yards per play statistics. Note, too, that Georgia coach Kirby Smart was Nick Saban's defensive coordinator before becoming the Bulldogs' head coach last season. Former Saban assistant coaches have squared off against their mentor 11 times - and are 0-11. Each of Alabama's victories against these coaches was by 14 or more points.
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01-07-18 | Hawks v. Lakers -3.5 | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Luke Walton is feeling heat as the Lakers have lost nine in a row. Clearly, it's stop-the-pain mode in LA. Luckily, the Lakers have the perfect opponent to do just that as they host the Hawks. Atlanta is in total rebuild mode. The Hawks are at their worst on the road where their record is 3-17. The Hawks' last away victory occurred on Dec. 2 against the Nets. The Lakers are back to full strength with Lonzo Ball and Brook Lopez healthy. They hold a talent edge on the Hawks. Atlanta has one good player, Dennis Schroder, and he's in a shooting slump. Schroder is 12-for-31 in his last two games from the floor. He has shot much worse on the road this season at 41.2 percent from the field.
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -103 | 126 h 29 m | Show |
It's a nice story that the Bills finally made the playoffs for the first time since 1999. But, truth be told, the Bills have no business in the postseason. Buffalo was minus 57 in point differential. The Chargers, by contrast, were plus 83 in scoring differential but failed to make the playoffs. If LeSean McCoy doesn't play, the Bills will have the worst set of skill position players I've ever seen for a playoff team. Even if McCoy plays, he will be extremely limited by an ankle injury. It's not a surprise Buffalo ranked 31st in passing. Tyrod Taylor is more runner than thrower. The Bills thought so little of Taylor they benched him for Nathan Peterman in Week 11. Taylor has no decent wide receiving options. If McCoy is a no-go, the Bills' running backs will be plodding third-stringer Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy, who was just called up from the practice squad when second-string running back Travaris Cadet was lost for the season with a broken ankle in Week 16. The Jaguars give up the second-fewest points and yards per game in the league. They rank No. 1 in pass defense. I can't see the Bills putting up many points - if any - against the home Jaguars. Blake Bortles had a strong December with the exception of his last game. If you discount that performance on the road against the Titans in Week 17, Bortles had thrown nine touchdowns in his past four games. He has 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to do the heavy lifting. There's also the Doug Marrone factor. He coached the Bills from 2013-14 and so is extra familiar with Buffalo. Marrone's stay in Buffalo didn't end well so he won't be reluctant to run up a score.
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01-06-18 | Gonzaga v. Loyola Marymount +19.5 | 85-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Loyola-Marymount is better than perceived, but this handicap is based more on a fade of Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are down from past seasons and have padded their statistics on bad teams. |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 28 m | Show |
The Titans were good at two things this season - winning at home and beating foes from their weak AFC South Division. What the Titans aren't good at is winning on the road and defeating strong opponents. Tennessee has lost and failed to cover five of its last seven away matchups. The Titans' only victories during this span were against the winless Browns in overtime and beating the four-win Colts by four points. Except for the Jaguars, the Titans didn't beat a playoff team. The Titans have just two victories since Dec. 3. They lack playoff experience, too, having last made the postseason back in 2008. Kansas City is playoff-tested having made the postseason three of the past four seasons, including the last two. Andy Reid is a much better coach than Mike Mularkey and the Chiefs were able to rest a number of their key starters this past Sunday. The Chiefs play excellent defense at Arrowhead Stadium - holding foes to fewer than 17 points per game on the season - and their offense is back in gear. The Chiefs finished the regular season winning and covering their last four games while averaging 28 points. The Titans surrendered 27 touchdown passes. Their defense is far less effective on the road. Alex Smith had a career season leading the NFL in passer rating and shedding his image of being a mere game-manager. Smith's greatest strength is not turning the ball over. He has weapons with rookie Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill both establishing themselves as big-play threats. Hunt led the NFL in rushing. Travis Kelce is a top-three tight end. The Chiefs' braintrust of Reid and sharp offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is far superior to Mularkey, whose conservative strategies caused promising third-year quarterback Marcus Mariota to regress. Mariota was picked off a career-high 15 times. The Titans probably aren't going to have DeMarco Murray. So the Titans are left to counter the Chiefs' high-powered, balanced attack with Mariota, who has played much worse on the road, and Derrick Henry. The Chiefs are likely to load the box since the Titans have failed to establish a downfield passing game, another weakness of Mularkey. Tennessee averaged 15 points in losing its last two road games, falling to the Cardinals and 49ers. Neither of those teams made the playoffs.
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01-06-18 | VCU +3.5 v. La Salle | 80-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The road team has covered six of the last seven in this series and I see that continuing here. VCU is coming off a tough overtime road loss to St. Joe's. The Rams had won four in a row prior to that. I don't think LaSalle is better than VCU. |
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01-05-18 | Niagara +1.5 v. Siena | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Just think the wrong team opened as the favorite. Siena isn't very good. The Saints have a losing home mark while being outscored by six pointd per game at home. Going back to their last 16 home contests, the Saints have covered just five times. Niagara has a winning spread mark on the road. The Purple Eagles covered both of their games last season versus Siena. |
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01-05-18 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers +2.5 | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Wisconsin is way down from previous seasons. The Badgers also have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among the Badgers who won't be playing is starting guard Brevin Pritzl, who has a head injury. |
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01-04-18 | Warriors -4 v. Rockets | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Until proven otherwise, I see the world champion Warriors as the best team in basketball. When the Warriors really want to win, they win. That should be the case here with the Warriors facing their strongest challenger in the Western Conference. I'd like the Rockets' chances far more if they had James Harden. But they don't. He's out with a hamstring injury. The Rockets didn't need him in burying the Magic, 116-98, at Orlando last night. I can't see the Rockets, though, hanging real close to the Warriors without Harden. Stephen Curry is back for the Warriors and he's hot making 24 of 36 shots from the field in two games since returning to the lineup after being out for 11 games. The Warriors also were in action last night, beating the Mavericks, 125-122. The Warriors have the shorter trip to Houston than the Rockets do coming from central Florida. Golden State also has the better bench. Until defeating the hapless Magic and Lakers, Houston had dropped five in a row. This will be just their second game of the season without Harden, who leads the NBA in scoring and is third in assists. Golden State has won its last eight road games and is 11-2 versus the Rockets during its past 13 regular-season meetings, including beating the Rockets six consecutive times at Toyota Center.
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01-02-18 | Nebraska +8.5 v. Northwestern | 70-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Northwestern isn't anything special neither talent-wise nor size-wise. The Wildcats also hold just a minimal home court advantage with their on-campus arena being renovated. This is forcing them to play their home games in Rosemont at the huge AllState Arena. |
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01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame +3.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
I see these teams as near even with Notre Dame slightly better. So I'll gladly accept points here. I like Notre Dame's running back depth better and offensive line where they have two projected first-round draft picks. Guard Quenton Nelson is expected to be the first offensive linemen selected in the draft. I also prefer Brandon Wimbush to Danny Etling at quarterback. The statistics of these two teams are very close. Notre Dame, though, has a clear edge in averaging 6.4 yards per run while allowing 4.0 yards compared to LSU averaging 4.9 and 3.9 defensively. The key is who runs the ball better and that's another checkmark for Notre Dame, which rates seventh-best in the nation. Strength of schedule also favors the Irish. This was not a great year in the SEC. LSU had its worst losses against Mississippi State and Alabama. The Tigers also were shocked by Troy. The Irish are the healthier team, too, especially at linebacker. The line is shaded towards LSU because Notre Dame lost late games against Stanford and Miami both on the road. The Irish are refreshed and have regrouped now. They are the team worth backing.
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12-31-17 | Washington v. UCLA -9 | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Washington is just 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 Pac-12 games. But the Huskies caught the attention of UCLA with an 88-81 road win against USC this past Friday. That was the Huskies' first Pac-12 road victory in nearly two seasons. The Burins are 7-1 at home this season and have covered eight of the last 11 times versus the Huskies. Mike Hopkins has turned around the Huskies in his first season. But I don't see Washington being there yet for this huge early-season conference road matchup. The Bruins are averaging nearly 84 points a game with a balanced attack and a lot of height. It will be too much for Washington at this stage.
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12-31-17 | Hornets v. Clippers -2.5 | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
The Clippers are the superior team with Blake Griffin back and are home. LA is on a 9-1-1 against the spread run. |
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12-31-17 | Utah v. Oregon State +1 | 66-64 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Oregon State is extremely tough at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers have covered in their last four meetings against Utah. They are 11-2 against the Utes in their last 13 home games versus them. The Utes are 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. I don't see Utah pulling off back-to-back road wins in Oregon after it snapped Oregon's 25-game home win streak with a 66-56 win against the Ducks two days ago. Oregon State is 8-1 at home this season. The Beavers have won their last six at Gill Coliseum with the average victory margin being 11.8 points.
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12-31-17 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -122 | 133 h 30 m | Show |
Seattle is one of those teams in must-win mode Sunday. If the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and Carolina defeats or ties Atlanta then Seattle makes the playoffs. The Panthers-Falcons game has been moved back to start at the same time as the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup. The Panthers are in the postseason but have motivation to beat the Falcons as they have a chance to gain a No. 2 seeding and a first-round bye with a victory. I don't see the Seahawks losing to the Cardinals, who are extremely banged-up, have performed poorly on the road and have a stiff at quarterback in Drew Stanton. Russell Wilson is in the MVP discussion having his finest season. The Cardinals have a strong run defense, but are mediocre versus the pass. Wilson has the receiving depth and mobility to be highly effective against the Cardinals defense. Arizona has has lost five of its seven road contests while going 1-6 ATS. The Cardinals' two away victories were against the 3-12 Colts in overtime and the 49ers, who were winless at the time. In their last three games, the Cardinals have managed just two touchdowns. Their offensive line is decimated with D.J. Humphries, Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati and Earl Watford all out. Seattle's defensive front seven should easily win the battle of the trenches. Arizona is down to third-stringer Kerwynn Williams as its main runner with David Johnson and Adrian Peterson out. Seattle has maybe the toughest outdoor venue for opponents in the NFL. The Seahawks have revenge for the Cardinals beating them on Christmas Eve last year that knocked them out of the No. 2 seed. The Seahawks have a special dislike for Stanton still recalling his sideline celebration from four years ago when the Cardinals defeated them at Century Link Field. The 33-year-old Stanton wasn't good then and he's not good now. He's completed only 51.2 percent of his throws, which is right in line with his career percent. He is an inaccurate, career journeyman who lacks pass protection and a ground game. The Cardinals are tied for fifth in the NFL in giveaways with 24, including turning the ball over twice during each of their last five games. The hard-hitting Seahawks defense, headed by Bobby Wagner and Earl Thomas, can take advantage. The Legion of Boom is wounded, but far from dead holding the Cowboys to no touchdowns this past Sunday despite the game being played in Dallas and Ezekiel Elliott's return from suspension.Now the Seahawks are home against a much weaker offense. The line has climbed since I released this play, but I see this as a total kill spot for the Seahawks. |
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12-31-17 | Saints -6.5 v. Bucs | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 23 m | Show | |
I don't see the Buccaneers being able to stop the Saints' balanced attack. The Bucs' defense is battered and worn down. The Saints have arguably the top running back tandem with Mark Ingram and Alvin Karma. Drew Brees remains as sharp as ever on pace to set the NFL record for highest completion rate in a season at 71.9. Tampa Bay has lost five in a row. The Buccaneers have managed to hang in during this losing streak but they've been terrible through the years as a home 'dog and I just don't see a strong effort from them. Jameis Winston has had a poor year and is down several key receiver targets. Winston still isn't 100 percent due to a shoulder injury. I'm not impressed with any of Tampa Bay's running backs. The Saints' defense is much improved. New Orleans has covered 13 of its last 17 road contests. The spread is fair considering the Saints are not only the superior team, but the more motivated looking to win a division title.
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12-31-17 | Raiders +7.5 v. Chargers | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 5 m | Show | |
The Raiders have a strong recent history of playing the Chargers tough. Oakland has won four of the past five meetings between the two teams. The Chargers' lone victory during this span came this season, 17-16, on Oct. 15. The line is inflated due to the Chargers needing to win to keep alive their playoff hopes. LA, though, really has no home field advantage. There could be as many Raiders fans in attendance. The Raiders aren't going to lie down here against this division foe. Jack Del Rio's coaching future could be on the line and the Raiders have several below-the-radar factors going their way here. One of these factors is an edge in special teams for Oakland. The Raiders have a dangerous returner in Cordarrelle Patterson and a good punter in Marquette King, who has the Raiders ranked third in net punting yards. The Chargers are below average on special teams with their inconsistent kicking game and they won't have perhaps their best special teams player in Adrian Phillips. He's out with an ankle injury. The Raiders' defense has improved since John Pagano replaced Ken North Jr. as the defensive coordinator. The Chargers have key skill position players banged-up. Tight end Hunter Henry is out with a kidney injury and Melvin Gordon may not play because of an ankle injury, which would leave third-stringer Braden Oliver as the main ball-carrier. Even if Gordon plays he'll be limited in his cutting. Gordon had 150 yards from scrimmage in the Chargers' one-point victory against the Raiders. The Chargers have a strong secondary and good pass rush. Their weakness is run defense, where they rank last in the NFL. Bilal Powell rushed for 145 yards on 19 carries against LA last Sunday and Kareem Hunt ran for 155 yards on 24 carries two weeks ago against the Chargers in helping Kansas City win, 30-13. The Raiders are going to pound away at the Chargers with Marshawn Lynch. This will make things easier for Derek Carr , who had just returned from a back injury when the team's met the first time. Mobile quarterbacks such as Carr have given the Chargers problems.
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12-30-17 | Cavs -3.5 v. Jazz | 101-104 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are in stop-the-pain mode off consecutive road losses to the Warriors and then Kings. Cleveland last played on Wednesday and won't play again until Tuesday so this spots sets up well for the Cavaliers. The Jazz have no defensive stoppers to face LeBron James. Utah remains without Rudy Gobbert, their top inside scoring threat and one of the best rim protectors in the NBA. Utah has lost three in a row, losing by an average of 21 points a game during this span. The Jazz aren't close to being in the Cavaliers' class without Gobert.
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12-29-17 | Hornets v. Warriors -11 | 111-100 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
The Warriors can name their score here. The question is can they name it by a wide enough margin to cover this double-digit spread? I believe they can. They certainly did when the two teams met on Dec. 6 in Charlotte. The Warriors rolled past the Hornets, 101-87. Golden State achieved that win minus Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Curry won't be back for this game. But Green is healthy and Golden State is home this time. The Warriors are 9-1 in the 10 games Curry has missed. They've held six of their last 10 foes to fewer than 100 points. The Hornets are a below average defensive club that may not even be good enough to sneak into the Eastern Conference playoffs. They have lost 13 of their last 17 games. Golden State leads the NBA in scoring and field goal percentage. Since losing to the Warriors, the Hornets have faced three other strong teams - Boston, Toronto and Houston. Charlotte dropped all three of those games by double-digits with the average loss being 13.6 points. Charlotte has been terrible on the road going 2-12 SU, 3-8-3 ATS. The Warriors host Memphis on Saturday, but after that game won't play again until Wednesday. So they should be playing hard.
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12-29-17 | Utah v. Oregon -10 | 66-56 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Utah isn't ready for Oregon. The 10-3 Ducks are holding foes to less than 39 percent shooting from the field while averaging 85.3 points per game. Utah can't match that. Utah has failed to step up against elite type foes losing to UNLV by 27 points, to Butler by 12 and to BYU by 12. The Ducks have defeated the Utes during the past nine meetings, including sweeping them last season.
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12-29-17 | NC State -6.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 93 h 28 m | Show |
North Carolina State is a superior team to Arizona State. Now throw in the Sun Devils coaching upheaval and I see North Carolina State winning this game by more than a touchdown. The Wolfpack were in national playoff contention, but couldn't beat Notre Dame and Clemson. No shame in that. The Wolfpack aren't in that elite class. But they are a level higher than Arizona State. North Carolina State has bowl experience winning bowl games in two of the past three seasons. The Wolfpack field one of the most experienced teams in the country with 22 seniors. These seniors have accomplished going to a bowl three straight seasons so they want to end their college careers on a high note. Ryan Finley threw for more than 3,000 yards for North Carolina State this season while completing nearly 64 percent of his passes. He has a deep group of receivers, who can take advantage of Arizona State's 118th pass defense. The Sun Devils ranked 88th in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game. North Carolina State's defense is much stronger giving up fewer than 25 points per game and ranking 28th in run defense. The Wolfpack have a stout defensive line and ASU allowed the 10th-most sacks in the country. The kicker here is Arizona State's coaching situation. The Sun Devils fired Todd Graham and hired Herm Edwards, which was a bizarre hire in my opinion. The Sun Devils' offensive coordinator, Billy Napier, and defensive coordinator, Phil Bennett, then left the program. Napier departed to accept the head coaching job at Louisiana-Lafayette and Bennett left for personal reasons. So newcomer Edwards doesn't have either of his coordinators.
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12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | Top | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
These are two strong defensive teams. Stanford is holding foes to 21.5 point a game, 25th-best in the country. The oddsmaker, of course, knows this. That's why we have a relatively low total here. So points matter. And I'll gladly accept them with Stanford, who I rate as better than TCU. Stanford has gone to a bowl game nine straight seasons. The Cardinal has won their last three bowl games. I really like them as underdogs in the David Shaw era as they've covered 80 percent of the time in 15 games in that role under Shaw. Stanford beat Washington by eight points and Notre Dame by 18 as an underdog this season while also covering as a 'dog against USC in the Pac-12 championship game. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill has failed to step up in big games. His worst games came away from home, too. I prefer Stanford's power ground attack headed by speedster Bryce Love. The Horned Frogs are not used to facing this type of offense. They play an unorthodox 3-3-5 defense. This defense is geared to stop the numerous spread offenses in the Big 12 not the type of offense Stanford employs.
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12-28-17 | Louisiana Tech +9 v. Western Kentucky | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
This is the Conference USA opener for both teams - and it's too many points for Western Kentucky to be laying. |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
Missouri is overrated and Texas' Tom Herman is one of the great underdog coaches. The Tigers haven't beaten a good team all season. All of their SEC victories were against sub .500 teams. Texas has a much better defense than Missouri and I like Herman far more than Tigers coach Barry Odom. If you go back to when he was Ohio State's offensive coordinator and go through when he was the head man at Houston and now at Texas, Herman is an astounding 15-1 ATS (94%) as an underdog. The Longhorns rank sixth in the nation in run defense. They held five opponents to 14 points or less. Texas' defense will be able to handle Missouri's spread attack having faced multiple spread offenses this season along with great quarterbacks Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph. Texas went 3-0 ATS against those quarterbacks holding USC to 24 points in regulation, Oklahoma to under 30 points and Oklahoma State to 10 points in regulation, which was 36 points under the Cowboys' season average. The Longhorns have their quarterbacks healthy and are facing an inferior defensive team. |
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12-27-17 | Knicks +1.5 v. Bulls | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
I understand the Bulls are far removed from the 3-20 team that opened the season. I also understand the Knicks are not a good road team, just 2-10. Still, I'm not buying the Bulls opening a favorite in this matchup. The Bulls carry a high fatigue rating. This marks their fifth game in eight days and second in two nights following a highly satisfying road victory against the Bucks last night. Chicago has lost five of six times this season when playing without rest, losing by an average of nearly 13 points per game. The Knicks play five of their next six games on the road, including facing the Spurs in San Antonio on Thursday. New York is coming off a Christmas Day home loss to the 76ers and will be placing a lot of emphasis on winning this game, while Chicago is fat and happy. This also is a big revenge spot for the Knicks. They lost 104-102 to the Bulls at United Center on Dec. 9. The Bulls were blistering hot in that game making 51.2 percent of their shots from the floor. Chicago also went to the free throw line 23 times to just nine times for the Knicks.
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 30 h 32 m | Show | |
There's line inflation here because of the Rams trampling the Seahawks, 42-7, and the Titans losing to the 49ers after also falling to the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Rams are in a tough situational spot now and the Titans finally are back home where they play much better. Tennessee has won nine of its last 10 home games. Marcus Mariota has had four of his five highest rated passing games at home this season with the other one coming against San Francisco this past Sunday. The Rams have a banged-up secondary. Just two weeks ago, they surrendered four touchdown passes to the Eagles. The lookahead line for this game last week before Sunday's action was Rams minus three. So the line has more than doubled. The Rams were impressive against the Seahawks. But Seattle also played terrible, by far its worst game of the season. Still, that was the Rams' biggest victory in more than a decade and all but clinched the NFC West Division title for them. The Rams have a lot of youth, including their head coach. They have to travel cross-country in an obvious letdown spot right before Christmas. They're going to encounter a desperate and physical Titans team. Tennessee has the ability to control clock, taking advantage of LA's 24th-ranked run defense with one of the better running back tandems in the league with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. A hidden key to the Rams' success is their special teams. Now those special teams took a monster hit with Greg Zuerlein out for the season with a herniated disc in his back. He was having one of the best kicking seasons in NFL history leading the league in scoring while making 38 of 40 field goals. So the Rams go from having the best kicker in football to going with unknown Sam Ficken.
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12-24-17 | Broncos +3.5 v. Redskins | 11-27 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
The bar is not set very high here for Denver to cover, plus I have to believe the veteran Broncos show up knowing Vance Joseph isn't likely to be fired and the roster will be retooled during the off-season. This is an important showcase game for the Broncos especially quarterbacks Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Both could see action. I don't like either player, although Osweiler is coming off a rare splendid performance. Keep in mind, though, Washington ranks 29th in scoring defense and will be without Zach Brown, the top tackler in the league. The Redskins defense had to defend 80 plays last week, a monster number made worse by this being so late in the season. So they could easily wilt. The Broncos will be the much fresher team since they played last Thursday. I do like the Broncos' defense very much. This is a defense that carried them to a Super Bowl victory just two seasons ago and still retains dominant pass rushers and lock down defensive backs. Denver has been playing its best defense during the past two weeks holding the Jets and Colts to a combined 13 points and less than 350 yards. The Broncos defense can dominate weak offenses and Washington's offense is sputtering done in by a cluster injury problem in the offensive line and its top weapons out. The Redskins permitted 23 sacks last season. They've allowed 38 already this season and will be minus their best offensive lineman with left tackle Trent Williams out with a knee injury. The Redskins could have another new offensive line combination this week depending on injuries. Kirk Cousins can't generate much offense anymore because of his makeshift offensive line and down his top receiver, Jordan Reed, and best running back, Chris Thompson. Washington has weak special teams, too, so its offense doesn't often get good starting field position. I'm expecting the crowd count to be way down with this game rendered meaningless so the Redskins' home field advantage is reduced.
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida -3 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
I like South Florida's defense and its quarterback, senior Quinton Flowers. These strengths provide South Florida a strong enough edge to cover this short number. Flowers is a dangerous dual threat with his passing and running ability. The Red Raiders faced three elite quarterbacks this season - Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Will Grier - and lost to all three of them. Texas Tech doesn't have the offense to trade points with South Florida especially going against a rugged Bulls defense that ranked 37th in scoring defense, 28th in total defense and 22nd in run defense. Texas Tech Nic Shimonek was ineffective enough to get pulled late in the season. The Red Raiders earned their bowl berth by getting to six wins with a 27-23 victory against Texas to finish the regular season. That victory likely saved Kliff Kingsbury's job. I doubt the Red Raiders can reach the same level of intensity now that Kingsbury is safe and the team achieved their goal of making a bowl game. |
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12-22-17 | Texas State -2.5 v. Rice | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
I conceed Rice has played the more difficult schedule of the two teams. But power rating-wise, Texas State is the better team. Statistics bear this out. The Bobcats give up 12 fewer points per game than Rice and score four more points per contest. Rice is looking forward to Christmas break. The Owls are 1-5 in their last six games. Rice has a losing record at home, too. The Owls' lone home victories were against non-board teams St. Edward's and St. Thomas. Texas State and Rice have one common opponent - Texas Rio Grande Valley. Texas State rolled past the Vaqueros, 75-58, while Rice lost to them, 69-67.
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12-22-17 | Knicks v. Pistons -6 | 101-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
The Knicks are in a major letdown spot after upsetting the Celtics, 102-93, at home last night. Now the Knicks hit the road where they have been terrible. New York is 2-9 this season away from Madison Square Garden, 3-8 ATS. Kristaps Porzingis is far and away New York's best player. But he hasn't been 100 percent due to a knee injury. The Pistons are in bounce-back mode after a bad 110-93 road loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Detroit had won three in a row prior to that. The Pistons are tough in their new Little Caesar Arena going 9-5 there with a winning point spread mark.
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen gets the publicity. That's partly why the Cowboys are favored here. But Allen is a better pro prospect than college player. I find him to be overhyped due in part from a drop in statistics from his junior season plus having a mediocre offensive line and lack of playmakers surrounding him. He's also not 100 percent bothered by a sore shoulder. The Cowboys' leading rusher produced just 474 yards and they had only one receiver with more than 27 receptions. By contrast, Central Michigan quarterback Shane Morris is surrounded by skill position weapons. The Chippewas improved as the season went on. They enter this bowl game playing their best ball winning and covering their past five games. Central Michigan averaged 41.2 points in its past five games. The Chippewas beat good MAC teams, too, during this stretch defeating Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan by a combined 26 points. The spot isn't bad either for the Chippewas. They are more excited and motivated to be traveling to a bowl game while this venue is a letdown for Wyoming, which played in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego last season. I consider Central Michigan to be the superior team. So getting points is a nice bonus.
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12-21-17 | Bulls +11 v. Cavs | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Maybe the Cavaliers cover a rare home game and beat the spread when laying double-digits for the first time this season. But I have to take the Bulls believing this isn't going to happen. Sparked by the return of Nikola Mirotic and the emergence of Kris Dunn as a legitmate NBA point guard, the Bulls have put their rebuild plans on hold winning and covering seven in a row. Chicago should be motivated to test itself going against LeBron James and Cleveland in a double-revenge spot. The Bulls were playing much worse when they lost to the Cavaliers, 119-112, in the third game of the season during their last visit to Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 13-4 at home, but a mind-boggling 2-15 ATS. They are 0-11 ATS when laying double-digits. Only four times in their 32 games this season have the Cavaliers won by 12 or more points. Cleveland has a monster look-ahead game, too, as following this matchup the Cavaliers take off for the West Coast. The marquee matchup of the season goes Sunday with the Cavaliers meeting the Warriors. The Bulls did play last night. But no Chicago starter even reached the 29-minute mark in the Bulls' 112-94 home win against Orlando. |
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12-20-17 | Magic +5 v. Bulls | 94-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
It's easy to do a double-take when looking at this spread. But it's legitimate. Chicago has won six in a row. The Bulls actually are in position to overlook the Magic with upcoming marquee road matchups against the Cavaliers, Celtics and Bucks. Orlando looks at Chicago and sees how its season can turn around, too. The Magic have lost five in a row, but are getting healthier. They have forward Jonathan Isaac, one of their best defensive players, back and could get back leading scorer Evan Fournier. He's questionable along with Arron Affalo. Mario Hezonija stepped up in their absence erupting for 28 points in a 114-110 road loss to the Pistons - a team better than the Bulls - this past Sunday. The Magic have been idle since losing to the Pistons. Orlando has revenge motivation for 105-83 home loss suffered to the Bulls last month when down its two top point guards. Both are back for Orlando. Orlando has covered in seven of its last 10 visits to Chicago. |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 55 h 46 m | Show | |
I like both team's offenses. But Louisiana Tech has the better defense and has far more bowl experience. SMU also is going through a coaching change making this an awkward spot. Chad Morris led the Mustangs to their first bowl game since 2012. But Morris resigned after three season at SMU to become coach at Arkansas. This was less than two weeks ago. Morris took most of his offensive staff with him leaving new head coach Sonny Dykes to go over bowl preparations. I'm not a fan of Dykes. I prefer Louisiana Tech coach Skip Holtz much more than Dykes. Louisiana Tech has been to a bowl game each of the last three seasons - winning each time. This is the inaugural Frisco Bowl, which is being played in Frisco, Texas. It's less than 30 miles from Frisco to Dallas. So SMU could have bigger crowd support. On the other hand, it has to be boring for the Mustangs not getting to go anywnhere for their first bowl appearance in five years. Louisiana Tech has experience in this region, too. The Bulldogs won the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth last year and also was victorious in the Heat of Dallas Bowl in 2014. SMU allowed 35.5 points a game. The Mustangs ranked 122nd in total defense and 113th in scoring defense. SMU enters this matchup going 1-3 in its last four games with the lone winning during this span coming at home, 41-38, against Tulane in a game it failed to cover. The Mustangs have covered only one of their last seven games. Louisiana Tech ranked 66th in total defense and scoring defense giving up 26.7 points. The Bulldogs are good at forcing turnovers, too, tying for 11th in interceptions with 16.
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12-20-17 | Kings v. Nets -5 | 104-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
When is it ever good to lay a mid-size number with the Nets? Now. The spot, situation and history set up a Brooklyn play. The Kings stunned the 76ers last night rallying from 16 points down to win, 101-95, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs. Now the Kings have to turn around to play the win-starved Nets at the conclusion of their four-game, seven day road trip. Bad timing for them. Sacramento could be short-handed, too, in the backcourt. George Hill missed last night's game due to illness and good-looking rookie De'Aaron Fox reinjured his thigh against the 76ers. The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode with a three-game losing streak. Before then, they had won five of eight. Brooklyn has a winning spread mark when favored. The Nets also are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus Western Conference foes. Sacramento happens to be 4-10-2 ATS versus Eastern Conference opponents even with that victory against the 76ers, who were minus Joel Embiid. The Kings are 5-13 on the road this season and had lost seven straight road games to the Nets before winning last season. Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against Sacramento.
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12-20-17 | North Texas v. Georgetown -9.5 | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
I see this as a bounce back spot for Georgetown and a letdown spot for North Texas. The Hoyas suffered their first loss in nine games when they lost to Syracuse in overtime this past Saturday. There's no shame in losing to the Orangemen. But there would be shame in losing at home to North Texas. Patrick Ewing should have Georgetown on alert for this foe. North Texas is off an 86-83 victory against San Diego this past Saturday winning as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs. The Mean Green had lost seven straight true road games in a row, including going 0-4 this season, before springing the upset. Among the Mean Green's road defeats this season is a 14-point loss to Nebraska.
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12-19-17 | Dayton v. St. Mary's -10.5 | 54-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
St. Mary's ranks third in the NCAA in adjusted offensive efficiency, has the second lowest turnover rate in the country and ranks 16th in the nation in shooting percentage. The Gaels also are ranked 12th in free throw percentage and 34th in 3-point percentage. Jock Landale is one of the best players in the country averaging 21.6 points a game and 9.5 rebounds. So the Gaels definitely have the offense to cover this spread. This matchup sets up well for the Gaels to do just that. Dayton is playing just its second true road game. The Flyers last were on the road 16 days ago. The Flyers have a lot of inexperience. They are struggling to find their identity under first-year coach Anthony Grant. The Flyers don't have much height either. They are going to have problems dealing with the 6-foot-10 Landale. The Flyers managed to hold off Georgia State, 88-83, in overtime during their last game as a six-point home favorite on Saturday. But they have not won back-to-back games all season. |
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12-18-17 | Charlotte +3 v. East Carolina | 69-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Charlotte is in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. The 49ers will be well rested having been idle a week. The team should play hard here for interim coach Houston Fancher following Mark Price getting fired. That was a shock. But it should shake Charlotte up. Charlotte holds a backcourt edge. East Carolina is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country. Charlotte has underachieved. The 49ers are better than they showed. So the 49ers needed to be shook up.
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12-17-17 | San Francisco +7.5 v. Stanford | 59-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Stanford hasn't been very good this season. The Cardinal are a below .500 team and own few quality victories. San Francisco won't lack motivation against their nearby Pac-12 rival. This is just a short 35-mile road trip for the Dons. San Francisco is on a 3-game win streak, including beating UC Davis by 13 points in their last game. The Dons won 20 games last season. They are more worthy of than this big line shows.
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12-17-17 | Titans +2 v. 49ers | 23-25 | Push | 0 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
The 49ers are rejuvenated thanks to Jimmy Garoppolo. But let's not go overboard here. San Francisco is 2-0 since Garoppolo became the starter beating the Bears and Texans. The Titans are a clear level higher than those teams if not two levels better. The Titans are off a bad 12-7 road loss to Arizona this past Sunday. Before that, though, the Titans had won six of seven. Tennessee's offense is capable of much better than it has shown lately. Marcus Mariotta has had some bad luck with interceptions. He remains an emerging franchise quarterback with two solid running backs. The Titans' defense is somewhat underrated having allowed 20 or fewer points in all but one of their last seven games. The Titans are very much in the playoff picture holding down the No. 1 spot right now for an AFC wild-card berth. However, their last two regular season games are against the Rams and Jaguars. So they can't afford to lose this game. The Titans are putting tremendous effort and concentration into securing a win here. That's why the team has spent this week in California practicing on grass in warm weather after playing in Arizona this past Sunday. The 49ers are improved due to Garoppolo. They still aren't a good team, though. Far from it. San Francisco doesn't usually play well either versus good teams going 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against above .500 opponents. The 49ers have failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 home games, too.
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12-16-17 | UNLV -7 v. Pacific | 81-76 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Pacific is improved, but the Tigers are far from being in UNLV's class. The Rebels are too athletic and have too much scoring for Pacific to handle. UNLV is averaging 91.5 points a game, fifth-best in the country, and rank No. 3 in rebounding. Pacific is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games.
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12-16-17 | CS-Fullerton +7.5 v. California | 89-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
California is 4-6 under first-year coach Wyking Jones, but off an improbable 63-62 win against San Diego State. The Golden Bears were 16-point road 'dogs in that game. Cal still could be celebrating that win. If that's the case, the Bears will be in serious trouble because Fullerton is an underrated foe. The Titans have won five in a row. They've defeated Harvard and Portland and have been at their point spread best versus sub .500 foes covering eight of the last nine times against them. Upsetting San Diego State aside, the Golden Bears just aren't that good. Among their losses are games to Chaminade and Central Arkansas.
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12-15-17 | Nets +11 v. Raptors | Top | 87-120 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Nets are a scrappy bunch and very underrated by the oddsmaker. Brooklyn has greatly improved its defense to the point where until last night, the Nets ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency during their past seven games. Brooklyn couldn't hit its 3-pointers and lost, 111-104, at home to the Knicks Thursday night. The Nets were short favorites in that game. They are much better in an underdog role where they have covered nine of the last 10 times. Despite that defeat, the Nets still have a winning record in their last nine games. The Nets found, if not a star, a very reliable player in that loss to the Knicks. Point guard Spencer Dinwiddie put up a career-best 26 points to go with seven rebounds and seven assists. He is averaging 15.4 points per game since replacing injured D'Angelo Russell. This isn't a good spot for Toronto. The Raptors just concluded a four-game, six-day road trip on Wednesday night beating the Suns, 115-109. The Raptors are 2-4 ATS in their last six games and are in a flat spot playing in their first home game in 10 days.
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12-14-17 | Pistons -4 v. Hawks | 105-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
The Pistons are in circle-the-wagons mode and can take their frustrations out of the hapless Hawks. Atlanta is one of the four-worst teams in the NBA at 6-21, including 3-9 at home. Detroit should exploit the Hawks' weak defense that ranks 26th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage. Opponents have hit 50 percent of their field goals during the past five games against the Hawks. Atlanta is giving up an average of 113 points per game during this span.
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12-13-17 | Nuggets v. Celtics -6.5 | 118-124 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
I want the Celtics going for me here after they suffered their worst and most embarrassing loss of the season in their last game. That was a 100-85 road defeat to the Bulls two nights ago. The Celtics didn't have Kyrie Irving in that game. Irving is expected to play here. Boston won't have Al Horford, but Denver is missing its two best players, big men Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are a bit fat and happy after upsetting the Pistons, 103-84, last night. Even with that victory, the Nuggets are just 5-10 SU, 4-11 ATS on the road this season. Denver carries a high fatigue rating, too, as this concludes their six-game, 10-day road swing.
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12-12-17 | Columbia +11.5 v. Boston College | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
Boston College is in a huge letdown spot and Columbia is far more competitve than its 1-9 record might indicate. The Eagles took down then No. 1 ranked Duke, 89-84, this past Saturday as 15-point home 'dogs behind a rare sellout crowd. The Eagles had a week to prepare for that game. They've had two days to get down from the skies to play this game. I see Boston College being very flat here and taking Columbia lightly. That would be a mistake. Boston College isn't that good. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games even with that victory against Duke. BC has lost to Texas Tech, Nebraska and Providence by a combined 40 points. This also will be the second game the Eagles won't have Deontae Hawkins, their top rebounder and third-leading scorer. He's out with a knee injury. Columbia has had seven of its nine losses come by 10 points or fewer, including a four-point overtime loss to Connecticut. Another defeat was by 15 points to top-ranked Villanova. The Lions are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games when taking on a home team with a winning percentage better than .600.
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12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers -4 | 38-39 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
It's easy to point out how the Steelers have won seven in a row and are 9-0 during their last nine regular-season primetime regualr season games. This handicap for me, though, comes down to trusting the Steelers offense at home to easily outscore Baltimore's pop-gun attack. Ben Roethlisberger is a beast at home. I regard Joe Flacco as one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Baltimore's run defense has gotten much better, but its secondary is very much weakened without its top cornerback, Jimmy Smith. The Ravens are vulnerable to Antonio Brown and if their safeties help out with pass coverage - as they need to do - then running lanes open up more for Le'Veon Bell, the leading rusher in the NFL. Pittsburgh is down linebacker Ryan Shazier, their best all-around defensive player. But the Steelers have a very strong pass rush ranking No. 2 with 40 sacks. Shazier does not have a sack on the season. I don't see the Ravens keeping up with Roethilisberger and Co.
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12-10-17 | Jets v. Broncos +1.5 | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
Yes, the Jets have overachieved and Denver has been the most disappointing team in the AFC. But making the Jets a road favorite in this matchup is going too far overboard. The Jets have done their damage at home. They are 1-4 on the road with their lone away victory coming against the winless Browns in a game they were outplayed and outyarded in. Denver's defense has top 10 talent. Many of the same defenders were on the Broncos' Super Bowl team of just two years ago. The Broncos can handle journeyman Josh McCown at home. McCown could be without his top receiver as Robby Anderson sustained a hamstring injury during practice Thursday. The Broncos have been done in by atrocious quarterback play. Trevor Siemian, though, is an upgrade on Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Siemian is better than he was last week and is operating against a bottom-10 Jets defense.
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12-10-17 | Raptors -8 v. Kings | 102-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
The Raptors average 15 points more per game than the Kings. I consider the Raptors a "B" level team, while the Kings are in my "F" level with the Bulls, Suns and Hawks. The questions here are the Raptors' motivaiton level and how much of a home-court edge do the Kings have? Toronto should have strong incentive since Sacramento swept them last season. The Raptors are playing their best ball averaging 115 points during their past 11 games while going 5-0 during their past five games. DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka easily give Toronto the three best players on the court. Sacramento ranks last in scoring at 96.4 points a game. The Kings are returning home after a 116-109 upset road win against the Pelicans on Friday. This is the Kings' first home game following four consecutive road games. That trip began 10 days ago. So this isn't a good situational spot for the Kings, who actually could be in letdown mode, too, after surprising the Pelicans. It's another added plus for the Raptors if Kings center Willie Cauley-Stein has to miss a third consecutive game due to a bad back.
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12-10-17 | Packers v. Browns +3.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
Points are going to be at a premium in this cold-weather matchup with winds in the 15 mph range. The Packers aren't good enough minus Aaron Rodgers to lay points on the road. The Browns are winless. Yes, that is a fact. It's a mistake, though, to underrate them in this home matchup when they are starved for a victory and catch the Packers perhaps looking ahead to next week when Aaron Rodgers is eligible to return. Cleveland can play effective defense. The Browns have better defensive statistics than the Packers giving up the 10th-fewest yards in the league. The Packers, by contrast, rank 25th in defensive yardage. The Browns held the Chargers to 19 points in Los Angeles last week, while the Packers gave up nearly 400 yards to the Buccaneers at home this past Sunday despite Tampa Bay missing its best running back, Doug Martin, and two of its better starting offensive linemen. The Packers have injuries in their secondary. Cleveland has receiving weapons now to take advantage with Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman healthy to join athletic tight end David Njoku and running back Duke Johnson out of the backfield. Quarterback has been the Browns' downfall. But if there's a quarterback who has been as bad, if not even worse than DeShone Kizer, it is Brett Hundley, who has a 70.8 passer rating and a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hundley passed for just 84 yards last week against the Buccaneers, who rank second-to-last in pass defense and were missing starting cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and safety T.J. Ward. Hundley offers no downfield passing threat. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have done nothing with Hundley at quarterback. The Packers are going to take a conservative approach here running Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones knowing aggressive Browns defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is going to be putting in exotic blitz packages to take advantage of Hundley's lack of pocket presence. The strength of the Browns is their sixth-ranked run defense. So don't look for the Packers to put up many points. I find Mike McCarthy to be an extremely overrated coach fortunate to be propped up by Rodgers. The Packers are 4-15-1 under McCarthy when Rodgers hasn't played.
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12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
It's been an emotional week for the Giants with Ben McAdoo getting fired and Eli Manning restored as the starting quarterback. Usually controversial weeks are not good for the concentration of a team. But in the Giants' case this is good because it should wake them up. The Giants have underachieved all season. Part of this has been because of a toxic atmosphere. Now, at least for this game against a hated division rival, the Giants should play with passion and intensity. Their defense still has good players and Manning is a big upgrade on Geno Smith. New York has held Dallas to an average of 15 points during the past three meetings. The Cowboys aren't that good without suspended Ezekiel Elliott. Not having him has trickled down to everyone including Dak Prescott, who has a 64.3 passer rating minus Elliott compared to 97.9 with him. Both teams are 1-3 in their last four games. The Cowboys' win during this span came against the Redskins last week at home, 38-14. Dallas was not as special as that score might indicate, though, as the Redskins allowed a punt return for a touchdown and were minus four in turnovers. The Cowboys averaged just 4.2 yards per play. Dallas also has a long injury list. I expect cornerback Orlando Scandrick and David Irving, their second-best pass rusher, to be out for sure.
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