Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-16-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Wild | 0-3 | Loss | -136 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
I don't want to fully step in against a hot Minnesota Wild team, but I do believe Arizona is going to throw its best punch here. The Coyotes are desperate to avoid being swept three games by Minnesota. So I'm going to lay the juice and take a 1 1/2 goal cushion with the puck line. The Wild shut out the Coyotes, 4-0, this past Friday and followed that up with a 4-1 victory this past Sunday. Those scores are misleading, though. Both games were tied entering the final period. Can the Coyotes bounce back? They aren't some bottom-feeder. The Coyotes are a .500 team that won't lack motivation. They've shown a propensity to come through in these types of situations going 7-2 the past nine times when playing for the third time in four days. Arizona would be 10-5 in its last 15 games if given plus 1 1/2 goals. |
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03-14-21 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Yes, the Red Wings are a bad team. One reason for this is lack of depth. Detroit has been battered by injuries. Now, though, the Red Wings have gotten healthier. Their best center, Dylan Larkin, and defenseman Troy Stecher are back in the lineup. The Red Wings showed life with those two back in the lineup taking on powerful Tampa Bay during their last two games. The Red Wings lost 4-3 in overtime and then knocked off the reigning Stanley Cup champions, 6-4, this past Thursday. That was a season high in goals for Detroit. Here's an interesting quote from Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill: "... When we lost a number of guys, it hurt us, and when we've been healthy, we've played pretty good hockey overall." Backed by a 1 1/2-goal cushion on the puck line, I believe Detroit can hang in if not ambush the red-hot Hurricanes. Carolina could be in a letdown spot having won seven in a row. The Hurricanes have been relying on a highly effective power play unit to supplement their goal production. They may not get so many calls, however, being on the road. This is Carolina's first road game in 12 days. The Hurricanes have won seven in a row, but three of those victories came against the struggling Predators and three of their victories during their win streak occurred in overtime. Carolina also is going to be minus injured Vincent Trocheck. He's having a tremendous season leading the Hurricanes in goals with 13 and in points with 24. |
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03-14-21 | VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
These are two great defensive teams. So getting points, no matter how few, really matters. I believe Virginia Commonwealth is slightly better than St. Bonaventure so taking points here in this Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game is a bonus. VCU and St. Bonaventure last met on Feb. 12. The Rams won the home game, 67-64. despite making just 36 percent of their shots. Their superstar, Nah'Shon Hyland, had a bad shooting game making just 5 of 16 shots from the floor. St. Bonaventure shot 44 percent from the field. Yet VCU still won. That's telling. The Rams pulled down 19 offensive rebounds and forced 18 turnovers. I'm expecting the Rams to play their trademark pressing defense, which is going to force turnovers, and to shoot better from the floor especially Hyland. VCU has better depth than the Bonnies. The Rams haven't permitted an opponent to reach 70 points in regulation during their past 11 games.
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03-13-21 | Ohio v. Buffalo -2 | 84-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
Buffalo has won 10 of its past 11 games, including the last seven. One of the Bulls' more impressive victories came against Ohio during the last game of the regular season on Feb. 27. The Bulls buried the Bobcats, 86-66, on the road. Not only do the Bulls rank ninth in the nation in scoring at 82.7 points a game, but they are fifth in defensive 3-point percentage. Ohio is reliant on its perimeter and 3-point shooting. Buffalo is going to get its points. The Bulls have scored at least 74 points in all but two of their games this season. They also have loads of tournament experience having reached the MAC title game five times new since 2015. The Bulls have won four of the past five MAC championship games, including 2019. The Bulls have six players on their roster from that championship victory.
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03-12-21 | Rockets +17 v. Jazz | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
As bad as the Rockets are - and they might be the worst team in the NBA with 14 consecutive losses - they have never been more than 10 1/2-point underdogs. Until now. Utah has the best record in the NBA and is home. So I don't dispute the oddsmaker's thinking on making this such a high number. It's justified. I just think circumstances work against Utah covering this large of a number. Yes, the Rockets are way, way down and are going to be missing veteran John Wall, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker. Christian Wood still is out, too. But the Rockets have some youthful talent with Kevin Porter Jr., Jae'Sean Tate, Kenyon Martin Jr. and Sterling Brown. This is their opportunity. So they should play hard. I doubt the Jazz will be motivated to produce an "A" level performance against such a low caliber opponent especially coming off All-Star break. Utah last played nine days ago. Even if the Jazz do build a huge advantage the backdoor should swing wide open for the Rockets to stay within this big of a point spread. That's because the Jazz embark on a five-game, nine-day road trip beginning Sunday at Golden State. So I'm not anticipating Utah's starters to log big minutes here. |
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03-12-21 | Akron v. Buffalo -4 | Top | 74-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Akron doesn't force many turnovers and is a below average defensive rebounding team. I don't trust the Zips on offense either. Buffalo ranks fifth in the nation in 3-point defense. The Zips lack the consistency Buffalo has shown. The Bulls have scored 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games. They are averaging 84.6 points during their past six games. On the season, the Bulls rank ninth in scoring at 82.7 points and are the best offensive rebounding team in the country. They can really exploit Akron's weakness in defensive rebounding. The Bulls are peaking at the right time. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, riding a six-game win streak. Their lone loss during this span came to Toledo, which is the best team in the MAC.
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03-12-21 | Missouri v. Arkansas -4 | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
I liked the job Eric Musselman did at Nevada-Reno and I like what he's accomplishing at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are peaking with eight straight victories. They have covered nine of their last 11 games. Arkansas has scored at least 81 points in six of its last seven games. Missouri ranks 227th defensively yielding 72.1 points per game. Missouri is 16-8. The Tigers are fortunate to have that record, though, as they are 6-1 in games decided by five points or less. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they've gone against an above .500 foe.
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03-12-21 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -2.5 | Top | 66-58 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
Kudos to Georgetown for upsetting Villanova on Thursday, 72-71, on a pair of free throws by Dante Harris with 4.7 seconds left. But now the Hoyas have to play a third straight day having also upset Marquette two days ago. Georgetown faces a refreshed and rejuvenated Seton Hall squad. The Pirates knocked off St. John's on Thursday. The Pirates' last played six days ago before defeating the Red Storm. That victory and cover against St. John's pushed Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard's point spread record to 10-0 in Big East Tournament games. The Pirates are 18-7-1 (72 percent) in their last 26 neutral site games. This matchup is being played at neutral site Madison Square Garden. Seton Hall is the better team with the stronger bench and best player on the court in Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Hoyas lack depth, which could prove telling given this being their third game in three days. |
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03-11-21 | Cal Poly v. Cal-Irvine -15 | 51-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Twice these teams have met this season. The results were similar. Cal-Irvine won 68-49 on Jan. 22 and beat Cal Poly-SLO again, 67-44, on Jan. 23. The margins of those victories were 19 and 23 points, respectively. I'm not anticipating anything closer this time around either. Cal Poly surprised Cal-State Fullerton, 87-82, two days ago in the opening of this Big West Conference Tournament. The Titans were rusty having played just twice following a COVID-19 pause. Still, Cal-Poly scoring that many points was an outlier. The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the nation. Even with that victory, they are 2-17 in their last 19 games. The Mustangs entered that matchup averaging 59.5 points in their previous five games while ranked 342nd in scoring and 335th in field goal percentage. Cal Irvine isn't going to take Cal Poly lightly now after seeing what the Mustangs did to Cal-State Fullerton. Unlike the Titans, the Anteaters enter tournament play on the upswing winning six of their last seven, including a 15-point road win against Long Beach State in their last game five days ago. The Anteaters rank 29th defensively giving up 63.4 points per game. They are seventh in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Cal-Poly won't be able to handle that strong of a defense just like in the first two games between the teams. |
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03-11-21 | Rider v. St. Peter's -5.5 | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Rider is stepping up in class meeting Saint Peter's in this quarterfinal matchup of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament. The Broncos lost 13 of 18 conference games, but reached this game by upsetting Canisius in the first round. Don't expect a second straight conference tournament upset win from Rider. Only 12 teams in the nation give up fewer points per game than Saint Peter's, which allows 62. The Peacocks also rank No. 3 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Sparked by KC Ndefo, the Peacocks rank first in blocked shots. Ndefo, a tremendous leaper, leads the nation in blocked shots at 3.7 per game. Rider ranks 275th in scoring at 67.4 points. The Broncos are hoping to keep this close because Saint Peter's is a weak offensive team. The Broncos, however, surrender nearly 74 points a game and are well below average defensively. Note, too, that Saint Peter's has covered seven of its last eight neutral site games.
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03-10-21 | Nebraska v. Penn State -6 | Top | 66-72 | Push | 0 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
This is the spot where Nebraska really is going to miss its leading scorer and star player, Teddy Allen, who decided not to finish the season. Penn State scores more points and gives up fewer points than Nebraska. That's why the Nittany Lions are mid-sized favorites in this first round Big Ten Conference matchup being played at neutral site Indianapolis. But there's more than just that. I don't trust any of Nebraska's players to step up in Allen's absence. Penn State, on the other hand, has been getting strong performances down the stretch from Myreon Jones, its leading scorer, and Seth Lundy, who is coming off a 31-point scoring game in a 66-61 victory against Maryland this past Sunday. The Nittany Lions enter this matchup with the confidence of winning three of their last four, including that upset road win against Maryland. Another one of Penn State's victories during this recent four-game span was 86-83 against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers had Allen in that game and he torched Penn State for 41 points on 16-of-24 shooting from the floor. Yet Nebraska couldn't win even with Allen at his best. Now the Cornhuskers don't have him. Penn State also is a far better free throw shooting team than Nebraska. The Nittany Lions rank 98th in free throw percentage at 73 percent. Nebraska, by contrast, ranks 333rd in free throw percentage at 63.5 percent. |
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03-10-21 | Coyotes v. Avalanche -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Colorado has lost consecutive games to the Coyotes and Ducks both as a big home favorite. The Avalanche didn't have star center Nathan MacKinnon in either of those games. MacKinnon is set to return tonight and I look for the Avalanche to get short revenge on Arizona after losing, 3-2, to the Coyotes two days ago. This is Arizona's fourth game in six days and the Coyotes are playing in Denver's high altitude. So this game could get out of hand in Colorado's favor during the third period if not earlier. Until that Monday loss, the Avalanche had beaten Arizona six times in a row at home. The Coyotes' upset win against Colorado on Monday came with a price: Starting goalie Darcy Kuemper left early in the third period with an injury. He won't play today. |
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03-09-21 | Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton -5.5 | Top | 87-82 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play-in game to the Big West Conference Tournament, which is being held at neutral site Mandalay Bay hotel in Las Vegas. The oddsmaker doesn't put much emphasis on the small Big West Conference. The opening number shows this. Cal Poly SLO is absolutely terrible. The Mustangs have lost 17 of their last 18 games. They rank 342nd in scoring at 60.9 points and are 335th in field goal percentage. The Mustangs' scoring has been even worse lately as they are averaging 59.5 points during their past five games. Cal-State Fullerton averages 76.7 points, nearly 16 more points per game than Cal Poly. The Titans hold a huge talent gap. Tray Maddox Jr. is second in the Big West in scoring at 16.5 points per game. Josh Hall is the No. 2 rebounder in the conference and Vincent Lee leads the Big West in field goal percentage making 58.6 percent of his shots. So why did the oddsmaker set such a short line on the Titans? Cal-State Fullerton had a COVID-19 pause after its Feb. 20 game. The Titans didn't play again until this past Friday and Saturday. They lost both of those games to San Diego, a former Division II school ineligible to participate in the tournament since they are transitioning to the Big West. So those games were basically meaningless. The Titans used those matchups to get the rust off and as a tune-up for the tournament. The Titans know they must step up their game with UC Irvine on deck to face the winner of this matchup. The Titans have the perfect patsy to face in the Mustangs.
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03-09-21 | McNeese State -2.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Still another case here of the lower seed being the better team. McNeese State, the No. 9 seed in this Southland Conference Tournament, ranks 21st in the nation in scoring at 80.8 points. Southeast Louisiana, the No. 8 seed, gives up 78 points. The Cowboys, with Keyshawn Feazell down low, should have too much scoring and rebounding for Southeast Louisiana, which was outrebounded, 43-30, by New Orleans in its previous game.
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03-08-21 | Senators v. Oilers -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Edmonton is 4-0 versus Ottawa this season. The Oilers are in a good spot to make it 5-0. Obviously the oddsmaker agrees making the Oilers a massive favorite. I can't lay that price, but I can turn this into a plus price by getting involved with Edmonton on the puck line. The Oilers beat the Senators by multiple goals in three of their four games. The Oilers draw the Senators after Ottawa just upset the Flames on the road, 4-3, in a shootout Sunday night. The Senators got away with being whistled for 10 penalties. It was just Ottawa's 15th away victory in its last 67 road contests. NHL points leader Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who ranks third in the league in points, are in line for huge performances. The Senators have the worst defense in the league surrendering 3.9 goals per game. The Senators are likely to start third-string goalie Joey Daccord, too. Matt Murray played last night and backup Marcus Hogberg is on injured reserve.
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03-07-21 | Florida v. Tennessee -4.5 | 54-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm going with revenge, home-court and the superior defense in this matchup. All these reasons put me on Tennessee. The Volunteers have had this matchup circled ever since Florida dealt them their worst loss of the season, 75-49, back on Jan. 19. Tennessee is trying to regain the dominance it showed earlier in the season. Florida hasn't been playing that well either, though. The Gators are 3-3 SU and ATS in their last six games. They lost as 4-point home favorites, 72-70, to Missouri this past Wednesday in their last game. Tennessee has the stingiest defense in the SEC. The Volunteers rank among the top-30 defenses nation-wide. They give up seven fewer points per game than Florida. |
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03-06-21 | CS-Fullerton +2.5 v. UC San Diego | 78-85 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm looking for Cal State-Fullerton to get revenge against San Diego after the Tritons nipped the Titans, 89-85, on Friday. The Titans outrebounded San Diego by 17 boards, but the Tritons were on fire with their shooting. San Diego shot 52 percent from the field and connected on 16 of 33 3-pointers for 48 percent. The Titans shot 49 percent from the floor and made 7 of 20 3-pointers for 35 percent. San Diego has won just six games all season and half of those victories were against non-Division I opponents.
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03-06-21 | Alabama State +13.5 v. Jackson State | 54-79 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
Points are going to be at a premium here with such a low total. This low total is justified, though. Jackson State is a tremendous defensive team. However, the Tigers are extremely limited offensively. They rank among the bottom 20 teams in the nation in scoring at 63.1 points a game and shooting percentage at 37.9 percent. They also are a below average free throw shooting team. The Tigers are averaging only 58.5 points in regulation during their past five games. Alabama State can keep this within single digits. The Hornets are decent on the glass and averaging 68.2 points in their last eight games. |
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03-06-21 | Butler +13 v. Creighton | Top | 73-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
If you're going to have a college basketball coaching controversy don't have it happen right before conference tournament time. Unfortunately for Creighton that's what's going on now with its program. The Bluejays suspended their coach, Greg McDermott, two days ago for comparing his program to a plantation. McDermott's job hangs in the balance and the Bluejays' concentration level for this matchup comes into serious question. Creighton has not been playing well losing 72-60 to Villanova this past Wednesday. The Bluejays fell to Xavier, 77-69, in their previous game before Villanova. Butler, on the other hand, is showing signs of peaking. Unlike Creighton, the Bulldogs just defeated Villnova this past Sunday, 73-61. The Bulldogs also upset Seton Hall, 61-52, in their previous game before meeting Villanova. The Bulldogs are shaping up as a dangerous foe heading into next week's Big East Conference Tournament. They have surrendered just 58.6 points in their last three games. The Bluejays and Bulldogs met back on Jan. 16 when Creighton was playing much better. Yet the Bulldogs won, 70-66. Sparked by Chuck Harris, one of the better freshmen guards in the country, it wouldn't shock me if Butler won this game straight-up again. |
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03-05-21 | Lightning -1.5 v. Blackhawks | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks are at least two levels, if not three levels, behind the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning. The Blackhawks, though, played a spirited game on Thursday giving the Lightning all they could handle before falling, 3-2, when Tampa Bay scored with one second left in overtime. The Blackhawks blew a 2-0 second period lead. Tampa Bay should be more prepared this time around while the Blackhawks could be mentally down playing right away again without rest. The Lightning have defeated Chicago now five straight times on the road. The Lightning are 43-16 (73 percent) the past 59 times following a victory. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the best goalie in hockey this season. He could get the call again. If not I'm fine with Tampa Bay backup goalie Curtis McElhinney. Likewise, Chicago could turn to backup goalie Malcolm Subban since this is a back-to-back spot. Subban surrendered five goals to the offensively-challenged Red Wings in his last start six days ago.
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03-05-21 | Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky -7 | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky is the class of Conference USA at 10-2 in league and 17-5 overall. Old Dominion is 10-4 in league, but 14-6 overall. The Monarchs have fattened their record by playing four games against Charlotte and Middle Tennessee State during their last six games. Old Dominion is 4-10-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents. I don't see the Monarchs stepping up to keep things close here. Old Dominion can't hit 3-pointers, nor defend well against 3-pointers. Western Kentucky can exploit those perimeter weaknesses while dominating inside with 6-foot-11 star center Charles Bassley, who averages 17.8 points and 11.8 rebounds. I see a double-digit Hilltoppers victory.
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03-05-21 | Louisiana-Monroe v. South Alabama -5 | Top | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
I have this matchup power-rated considerably higher, so high that it merits my strongest Sun Belt Conference play of the season. South Alabama enters this opening round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game in Pensacola, Fla., going 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. The Jaguars average 11 points more per game than Louisiana-Monroe. The Jaguars have the best player in the matchup by far in guard Michael Flowers, who averages 20.8 points. Russell Harrison is the only player on the Warhawks averaging more than 12 points and he scored less than 13 points a game. South Alabama isn't a deep team, but that shouldn't matter here in this first-round tournament matchup. The Jaguars last played six days ago. Monroe went 5-13 for the worst mark in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. The Warhawks have averaged only 58 points during their last three games. South Alabama has scored at least 70 points in six of its last nine games. The Warhawks commit the most fouls in the Sun Belt and are bad at defending 3-point shots. South Alabama gets to the free throw line and ranks 65th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. So the matchup edges definitely are there for South Alabama. |
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03-04-21 | Wyoming +16.5 v. Utah State | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Utah State hasn't been consistent enough to lay this large of a number. The Aggies are 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. The Cowboys are at their best in this role covering 14 of the past 18 times as a road 'dog. Wyoming has one of the better backcourt tandems in the Mountain West with Marcus Williams and Hunter Maldonado. The Cowboys also have been playing better defense holding their last three foes to an average of 68.6 points.
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03-04-21 | Senators v. Flames -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 130 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
Calgary has been idle since returning home from three games at Ottawa. The Flames went 1-2 in those games with the last occurring in a 5-1 loss this past Monday. I want the rested Flames going for me in this revenge spot especially now they're getting back forward Derek Ryan and starting goalie Jacob Markstrom. The latest loss to Ottawa put Flames coach Geoff Ward's job in jeopardy. So I believe the Flames are primed for a big effort. This will be the Senators' third game in four days. They are 0-6 the past six times in this type of situation. They also have lost 10 of the past 13 times in Calgary. Ottawa has been a terrible road team losing 51 of their last 65 away contests.
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03-04-21 | Thunder +7 v. Spurs | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
It's tough to do after last night's game. I know so well. I had the Thunder plus eight points against the Mavericks on Wednesday attacking the overnight line in the hopes Luka Doncic would be held out. As it turned out this is what I had going in Wednesday's Thunder-Mavericks game: Maximum line value - checkmark. Dallas closed a 5-point favorite. Doncic out - checkmark. He didn't play. Mavericks greatly missing Doncic - checkmark. The Thunder held Dallas to 87 points, which easily was the Mavericks' lowest-scoring game of the season. Thunder getting the cover and the money - No checkmark. Oklahoma City lost to Dallas, 87-78. Words can't adequately express how pissed I was with that result. I bring this up not to vent, although it feels good to unleash this pent-up anger. But to point out in the NBA you can't hold grudges. If the value is there you must get back in the saddle and I see value coming right back with Oklahoma City in this matchup. Yes, the Thunder did play last night. Prior to their game against the Mavericks, though, the Thunder hadn't played since last Saturday. It's San Antonio who has the bigger fatigue issue. This is the Spurs' third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Spurs are playing through a short rotation, too, due to illness. Rudy and Derrick White are out. LaMarcus Aldrdige has been logging short minutes and is questionable for this game. Despite the frustrating non-cover against the Mavericks, the Thunder still have covered 28 of their last 40 road contests for 70 percent. The Spurs are 10-25 (28 percent) ATS the last 35 times as home chalk. |
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03-04-21 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
OK, at even money plus 1 1/2 goals I can get involved with the Red Wings given this anti-Carolina situational spot. The Hurricanes just concluded a five-game road trip this past Tuesday night. They are riding a three-game win streak. This is their first home game since Feb. 22. It's easy for the Hurricanes to suffer a concentration lapse and letdown with the Red Wings as their opponent. Carolina also is carrying a high fatigue rating. The Hurricanes will be playing their sixth game in nine days. The teams split two games in Detroit to open the season in January. Most of this handicap is a fade on Carolina, but the Red Wings would be 8-5 in their last 13 games if getting 1 1/2 goals, while the Hurricanes would be 1-4 in their last five games if laying 1 1/2 goals.
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03-04-21 | Oklahoma State +12 v. Baylor | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
Oklahoma State is playing extremely well winning five in a row, including three straight versus ranked opponents during this span. The Cowboys shouldn't be nearly this high of a road 'dog against Baylor. The Bears could be in for a letdown after capturing their first conference title in 71 years. The Bears are still rounding into shape following a three-week February shutdown caused by COVID-19. This is just the Bears' fourth game since Feb. 2. |
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03-03-21 | Thunder +8 v. Mavs | 78-87 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm locking into the Thunder at this number figuring superstar Luka Doncic is going to play. But Doncic isn't a given to play in this matchup. He's been bothered by lower back tightness. This is Dallas' final game before All-Star break so the Mavericks could choose to hold him to give him extra rest figuring they can still win this matchup without him. Obviously it would be a monster bonus if Doncic is held out. But, again, I'm not counting on that. Instead I'm relying on the Thunder's spunk, the situation and the Mavericks' poor track record in spots like this. Oklahoma City has covered 67 percent of its last 52 road contests. The Thunder are 3-2 in their last five games, but coming off an embarrassing, 126-99, home loss to the Nuggets. That game was played Saturday. So Oklahoma City has had three full days to prepare for this matchup. Dallas, on the other hand, is in action for the third time in five days. The Mavericks have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a home favorite.
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03-03-21 | Hawks v. Magic +4 | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
I get that Orlando is offensively-challenged and has lost its last four games. But who are the Hawks to be laying a road number like this? Atlanta took advantage of a cold-shooting game by the Jimmy Butler-less Heat on Tuesday to score a 94-80 road win, which halted the Heat's six-game win streak. It was the Hawks' first game since Lloyd Pierce was fired. Nate McMillan is Atlanta's interim coach. Glad the Hawks could win for him. But this sets up a letdown spot for the Hawks and Atlanta isn't nearly good enough to cover road numbers when not playing well unless their opponent turns in an "F" performance like Miami just did. Even beating the Heat last night the Hawks still committed 23 turnovers. Atlanta has talent. But the Hawks lack chemistry and good coaching. McMillan is a stop-gap, who has never proven himself to be more than a mediocre coach at best. Since Feb. 12, the Hawks have been favored four times. They lost straight-up in all four of those games falling to the Thunder, Cavaliers, Knicks and Spurs. Atlanta also is dealing with a fatigue factor. The Hawks are playing for the third time in four days, fourth time in six days and without rest. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS the last 18 times when playing on back-to-back days. The Magic were playing well up until about 10 days ago. They had defeated the Knicks, Warriors and Pistons. Then Detroit beat them in a revenge spot and the Magic followed that up with losses to the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks, although covering versus Dallas. The Hawks are a huge step down in class from the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks. |
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03-03-21 | Bulls +6 v. Pelicans | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Stan Van Gundy said it himself. The Pelicans can beat any team - and lose to any team. The proof is in the results. New Orleans has lost to the Thunder, Rockets, Rockets, Pistons and Timberwolves. But the Pelicans also have defeated some heavyweights: Bucks, Suns and the Jazz two days ago at home. Now the Pelicans draw the 15-18 Bulls. The Pelicans lack the maturity and track record to overcome this flat spot where they are mid-range favorites. New Orleans is 2-9 ATS the last 11 times as a home favorite. The Bulls had won five of six games before losing to the Suns and Nuggets, both at home. Phoenix and Denver are much better teams than New Orleans. The Bulls have covered seven of the past eight times they've been road 'dogs. They also are 10-2 ATS during their past 12 visits to New Orleans. The Bulls defeated the Pelicans, 129-116, on Feb. 10 as 2 1/2-point favorites. Now look at the spread. It's not justified. Chicago hit a franchise-record 25 3-points in its win against New Orleans. The Bulls could be in line for another big night from 3-point range as the Pelicans rank 28th in 3-point defense.
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03-02-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Purdue is 9-3 in its last 12 games, riding a three-game win streak. Wisconsin is 3-6 in its past nine games failing to step up time after time when playing upper tier teams, which 23-ranked Purdue is. The Badgers' only February victories were against lower-tier Big Ten teams Penn State, Nebraska and Northwestern. I don't see the Badgers changing course by beating Purdue at Mackey Arena where the Boilermakers are 9-1 this season. Purdue's only home loss was to Michigan, the No. 2 ranked team in the country. Wisconsin is 5-4 on the road. The Badgers have failed to cover the last four times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Badgers had a great chance to prove themselves versus worthy competition this past Saturday when they hosted No. 5 ranked Illinois. The Illini were missing their star guard, Ayo Dosumu. Yet Wisconsin still lost, 74-69. The Badgers are 0-6 now versus ranked foes in 2021.
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03-01-21 | Hornets v. Blazers -6.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
The timing is terrible for Charlotte in this matchup. The Hornets pulled off a miracle victory on Sunday night nipping the Kings, 127-126. Charlotte trailed by eight points with 53 seconds left. But a combination of Hornets grit and the incompetent Kings choking allowed Charlotte to steal a victory. Even more remarkable is the Hornets pulled this win out despite not having Gordon Hayward nor Cody Zeller. Hayward is Charlotte's leading scorer while Zeller is their best big man. Both are injured. The Hornets' reward? They have to play again tonight at Portland, a place where they have lost the past 12 times going 2-10 ATS. This will be the Hornets' third road game in four days. Portland was idle this past weekend after losing, 102-93, on the road to the Lakers this past Friday. That was the Trail Blazers' fourth loss in a row. Portland's last three defeats, though, have all been on the road to excellent Western Conference teams - Lakers, Nuggets and Suns. The spot sets up perfectly for the Trail Blazers to stop their losing skid in grand style.
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03-01-21 | Mavs v. Magic +7 | 130-124 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
I rank Luka Doncic among the five best players in the NBA. The guy is like a modern day version of Oscar Robertson, who yes I did see back in the day. A triple-double machine. But while Doncic is elite, the Mavericks aren't. Dallas is a .500 team with the record to prove that - 16-16. So I don't see the Mavericks getting away with laying this many road points in a flat spot for them. The Mavericks are coming off an impressive 115-98 Saturday road victory against the Nets, which snapped Brooklyn's eight-game win streak. Dallas' last three games have been against the Celtics, 76ers and Nets. This is the conclusion of its three-game road trip. So I don't see the Mavericks producing another "A" game given the circumstances and motivational letdown facing a much weaker opponent than they've recently met. Historically, Dallas hasn't been good in this role going 5-16 ATS the last 21 times when facing a below .500 opponent. Let's examine the Magic's past six games. They beat improved Knicks and Warriors teams along with the Pistons. But in their last three games, they lost a rematch to the Pistons and were buried by the Nets and Jazz. No shame in losing to Brooklyn and Utah. Orlando was outclassed in those matchups. The Magic won't be so outclassed here and they are in stop-the-pain mode. Orlando actually gives up fewer points per game than Dallas. It's lack of scoring that really hurts the Magic. The combination of having Evan Fournier back - he missed the first meeting between the two teams that Dallas won, 112-98, on Jan. 9 - and the Mavericks' 22nd-ranked defense should help Orlando put up a respectable scoring number to keep this game close. |
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03-01-21 | Hampton +8.5 v. Radford | 52-67 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
Hampton's season is on the line with this being a quarterfinal game in the Big South Conference Tournament. I think the Pirates will keep this close especially since Radford hasn't been playing well. Radford is 1-4 in its last five games with its lone victory during this time frame coming against Mt. Aloysius, a non-Division I opponent. Radford has averaged only 54.2 points during their past four losses. Hampton has a decent backcourt and the best low-post player on the court, Dajour Dickens. The 7-footer ranks second in the nation in blocked shots averaging 3.48 per game. |
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02-28-21 | Quinnipiac +3 v. Marist | 67-76 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
I believe the wrong team is favored. Marist is 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Red Foxes have played only two games this month. They average just 62.7 points a game. That puny average shrinks even more to 52.5 counting just their last four games. Quinnipiac has won and covered three in a row. The Bobcats have one of the stronger defenses in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. They rank sixth nationally in defensive field goal percentage, while averaging nearly eight points more per game than Marist. The underdog has covered five of the last six in this series. That's easy to see why when the oddsmaker makes a wrong favorite like this. |
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02-28-21 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Maryland | Top | 55-73 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Here comes the Spartans. Perhaps given up for dead, Michigan State has emerged as a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament with three straight impressive victories. The Spartans have knocked off Indiana on the road, upset fifth-ranked Illinois at home and then upset Ohio State this past Thursday. The Spartans accomplished all of this during the past nine days. Maryland is playing well, too, with four consecutive victories. But the caliber of the Terps' opposition during this span isn't nearly as impressive. Maryland won three home games defeating Nebraska twice and Minnesota, which is horrible on the road. The Terps' other victory was against Rutgers in their last game. That was a week ago. I'm going to ride Tom Izzo and a hot Aaron Henry with all their momentum and adrenalin facing a Maryland squad that has faced weak competition lately and could be rusty.
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02-27-21 | Baylor v. Kansas +5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Baylor was sailing along until getting hit by COVID-19, which caused a three-week stoppage for the Bears. Baylor finally returned to action against Iowa State this past Tuesday. The Bears had not previously played since Jan. 30. It showed. The Bears were lucky to have drawn Iowa State, the last-place team in the Big 12 Conference with an 0-14 league mark and 2-17 overall record. Baylor's shooting was off while its defense allowed Iowa State to hit 10 of 21 3-point shots. Baylor barely beat the Cyclones as 24-point home favorites winning, 77-72. No way can Baylor get away with that against Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming on as expected. They are 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. During this six-game span, they have held their opponents to an average of 58 points in regulation. Kansas has tremendous motivation that goes beyond just revenge for a 77-69 road loss to the Bears back on Jan. 18. The Jayhawks made this matchup their Senior Night. This isn't just any ordinary Senior Night. The Jayhawks take tremendous pride in winning having never lost a Senior Night game since they started the tradition in 1984. Baylor doesn't have this urgency. The Bears only need to win one of their last four games to clinch the Big 12 regular-season championship. If they lose this game, they still have West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech left to achieve the feat.
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02-27-21 | Wolves +4 v. Wizards | 112-128 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
There aren't many defenses worse than the Timberwolves. Washington is one such defense. The Wizards give up 119.5 points, which is three more points per game than what Minnesota allows. Washington, though, has been playing well. Thus the Wizards are laying their most points in this calendar year. It makes sense - on the surface. The Wizards are coming off a highly-successful 3-1 West Coast trip that culminated with an upset of the Nuggets this past Thursday night. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the NBA, losers of 10 of their last 11 games. But all of this is on the surface. The reality is the Timberwolves are much improved, too, and the Wizards are in a huge flat spot. The Wizards are in action for the fourth time in six days, all at different venues. This is their first home game following their four-game, seven day trip out West that went far better than expected. On deck for the Wizards is a much bigger conference matchup against the Celtics on Sunday. The Wizards could be looking ahead to that game smelling blood with the Celtics reeling. Minnesota has lost six in a row. But let's examine the Timberwolves' past seven games starting with an upset victory against the Raptors. That was followed by an eight-point loss to the Lakers, an overtime defeat to the Pacers, a five-point loss to the revenge-seeking Raptors, a four-point road loss to the much-improved Knicks, a blowout road loss to the Bucks and an overtime road defeat to the Bulls in a game they should have won and still might have if Karl-Anthony Towns didn't foul out in regulation. The Timberwolves are more respectable now with Towns healthy and Chris Finch as their new coach. Minnesota has been idle the past two days giving Finch needed time to work with his new team. Veteran Ricky Rubio is a good fit with Finch's up-tempo style lessening the impact of the Timberwolves being without D'Angelo Russell.
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02-27-21 | Abilene Christian v. Central Arkansas +17.5 | 82-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
Central Arkansas is in revenge mode after a 93-58 road loss to Abilene Christian on Jan. 23. Central Arkansas was banged-up earlier, but now is healthier. The Bears are 4-1 ATS when catching 11 or more points this season. They have scored 68 or more points in three of their past five games. Abilene Christian has surrendered 69 or more points in two of its last four games. The Wildcats have failed to cover five of their last six away contests.
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02-27-21 | SE Missouri State v. SIU-Edwardsville +3.5 | 69-63 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
The spot and dynamics are right for SIU Edwardsville to pull off this Ohio Valley Conference upset. The Cougars were nipped by Southeast Missouri State, 64-62, as 3-point road 'dogs on Jan. 28. The Redhawks may have had some home cooking in that one as they shot 32 free throws compared to 17 for the Cougars. SIU Edwardsville has held its last two foes, Morehead State and Tennessee-Martin, to 56 and 53 points, respectively. The Cougars have covered seven of the last eight times when meeting a below .500 opponent. Southeast Missouri State may be dealing with a letdown spot after upsetting Eastern Illinois on the road two days ago. The Redhawks are 6-17-1 ATS the last 24 times following a victory.
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02-27-21 | Texas Southern v. Alabama State +10.5 | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker isn't paying enough attention to the current form of these two teams. I guess you can't blame him with this being a Southwest Athletic Conference matchup. Alabama State has improved its defense holding four of its past five foes to fewer than 69 points a game. Alabama State has a top-50 defense against 3-pointers. Texas Southern is just an average scoring team and a terrible 3-point shooting team. If you toss out the Tigers' victory against Mississippi Valley State - one of the worst teams in Division I - they are giving up 72.5 points in their last four games.
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02-27-21 | Central Michigan +11.5 v. Ball State | 91-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Central Michigan hung in against Buffalo on the road in its last game losing, 85-73, easily covering as 21 1/2-point 'dogs. Buffalo only outscored Central Michigan by four points in the second half. Ball State hasn't been a favorite in more than a month. This isn't surprising considering the Cardinals have a losing record and are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games. The Cardinals can get up for some of the better teams in the MAC, but they aren't strong enough to lay double-digits against any of the conference teams with the exception of Northern Illinois.
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02-26-21 | Hawks v. Thunder +5.5 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
The Hawks haven't won at Oklahoma City in five years. So I'm not buying the Hawks as this big of a road favorite. Atlanta not only has failed to cover the past three times it was favored, but lost all three of those games straight-up. Atlanta is in action for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. Not helping their fatigue rating is the Hawks also are short-handed. Not only is De'Andre Hunter, who was having a career season, out but Cam Reddish has missed the last two games with a sore Achilles. There isn't a hotter player in the NBA right now than the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 33.3 points and shooting 64 percent from the field during the past three games. The Thunder have a winning ATS mark as underdogs this season.
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02-26-21 | Indiana State v. Valparaiso +3 | 58-43 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Valparaiso is better than its 9-16 record. Valparaiso dealt Drake its first loss of the season and lost by just three to the Bulldogs in its other game against them. Valparaiso also played Loyola of Chicago very tough losing by just two to the Ramblers. Indiana State has a below offense and has given up 70 or more points in each of its last three games.
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02-26-21 | Bowling Green +4 v. Akron | 83-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Akron is not trustworthy. The Zips just lost by 17 points to shorthanded Ohio in their last game. The Bobcats hadn't played in 21 days prior to that game because of COVID-19 protocols. Bowling Green can score with any MAC team averaging 78.4 points, which places the Falcons in the top 40 in the country for scoring. The Falcons also have stepped up defensively in their last two games.
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02-25-21 | Northwestern v. Minnesota -4.5 | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
Northwestern has yet to win in 2021 and I certainly don't expect the Wildcats to end that streak at Minnesota. After starting 3-0 in the Big Ten, Northwestern has lost its last 13 games going 3-9-1 ATS. The Wildcats have lost eight of those matchups by double-digits. You have to go back to the 2016-17 season to find the last time a team opened 3-0 in conference and then lost that many in a row. Minnesota isn't a good road team. But the Gophers are extremely tough at home where they are 13-2 at Williams Arena. They have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. However, their last game was a 94-63 home defeat to fifth-ranked Illinois. The Gophers can't afford a slip-up here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. The oddsmaker has opened this line way too low even considering the Gophers have a pair of key injuries with guard Gabe Kalscheur out and center Liam Robbins, the top shot-blocker in the Big Ten, not likely to play due to a foot injury. However, the Gophers have battled injuries all season. Senior forward Brandon Johnson is solid and can supply some of Robbins' inside presence. Marcus Carr leads Minnesota in scoring at 19 points a game. Nobody else averages more than 12 points a game for the Gophers so the scoring is well distributed. Minnesota has beaten third-ranked Michigan, fourth-ranked Ohio State, ninth-ranked Iowa, Purdue and Michigan State all at home. Taking care of business against free-falling Northwestern shouldn't prove difficult for Minnesota especially being in must-win mode. |
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02-25-21 | Magic +9 v. Nets | 92-129 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
The Nets are the hottest team in the Eastern Conference winners of seven in a row. But I don't think they are that good minus Kevin Durant to keep getting away with laying inflated numbers. Brooklyn didn't play well in its last game two days, but was fortunate to have played the Kings, losers of eight consecutive games. Orlando should provide more of an obstacle for Brooklyn. The Magic have been playing well lately. They had won three in a row beating the Warriors, much improved Knicks and Pistons before losing to Detroit in a rematch during their last game this past Tuesday. Perhaps the Magic were looking ahead to this matchup. Orlando gives up seven fewer points per game than Brooklyn, which has allowed at least 117 points in four of its past six games. The Magic have improved since Evan Fournier returned to the lineup after being injured. He gives Orlando a perimeter threat to go with rugged inside player, Nikola Vucevic. Brooklyn is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as a home favorite. The Magic have covered in each of their last four visits to Brooklyn. They also have covered six of the last seven in the series.
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02-25-21 | Fairleigh Dickinson +3 v. Sacred Heart | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
Fairleigh Dickinson averages a respectable 75.2 points per game and is the 23rd-best 3-point shooting team in the country. Sacred Heart has permitted 76 or more points in three of its last four games. The Pioneers average four points fewer per game than Fairleigh Dickinson and are a below average defensive team. They lost much of their scoring from last season and have not replaced that depth. Only two Sacred Heart players average more than eight points per game. Elyjah Williams gives Fairleigh Dickinson the best big man on the court.
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02-24-21 | Xavier v. Providence +1.5 | 68-83 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
Let's face it, Providence isn't going to make the NCAA Tournament unless it happens to win the Big East Tournament. That's certainly not likely to happen. But if the Friars have one game they want to win and play spoiler, it's this matchup against Xavier. This is Providence's Super Bowl home game. The Friars have had this rematch circled ever since Colby Jones drained a 3-point shot with one second left to give the Musketeers a 74-73 home win against Providence on Jan. 10. The Musketeers scored the final eight points to pull off the victory. Now this is Providence's revenge spot. The Friars have defeated Xavier six of the last eight times at home. Xavier has been inconsistent since returning from a COVID-19 hiatus This is just the Musketeers' fourth game this month. Providence has been playing stronger defense. If you discount the Friars' 92-81 loss to St. John's, they've allowed 61.8 points in regulation during their last six games. |
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02-24-21 | Spurs v. Thunder +1 | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Spurs if they can beat the Thunder under these circumstances, which are being rusty and severely short-handed. San Antonio hasn't played in 10 days due to a COVID-19 outbreak that hit its team. Among the rotation players out for the Spurs are Rudy Gay and Derrick White. Making it worse, though, for the Spurs is leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, their best player, also is out for personal reasons following his father's death. Remember, too, the Spurs' top big man, LaMarcus Aldridge, has missed the last six games because of a hip injury. He's questionable. San Antonio not only had to deal with COVID, but also the city and state of Texas enduring a winter storm that left many without power or water. So the Spurs' concentration level might not be where it needs to be. Oklahoma City is not a good team by any means. But the Thunder are capable given the right circumstances. They upset the Bucks three home games ago and they hold a backcourt edge on the Spurs with DeRozan out with the tandem of high-scoring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and promising rookie Theo Maledon.
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02-24-21 | Wolves +4 v. Bulls | 126-133 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm not going to land on the Timberwolves too much, but this is one of those rare spots. Chicago is fat and happy riding a two-game win streak and seeing Zach LaVine being named the first Bulls player to make the All-Star team since 2017. Chicago's victories, however, have come against the Kings, losers of eight in a row, and the Rockets, who also have dropped eight consecutive games. LaVine is the NBA's seventh-leading scorer, but maybe the worst defender in the league. The Timberwolves played their first game under new coach Chris Finch last night. Unfortunately for Finch it came against the Bucks - and the Timberwolves were predictably blown out. This matchup, though, should prove far more even. The Timberwolves have the best big man on the court by far in Karl Anthony-Towns and should play hard for their new coach in what shapes up as a competitive spot. Minnesota actually has been very good in this role - 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents. The Timberwolves also have covered eight of their last 10 meetings versus Chicago, who has a losing spread mark this season when favored.
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02-24-21 | McNeese State +4.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana | Top | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
It has been a disappointing season for McNeese State. But the Cowboys can gain a measure of self-respect in this revenge spot against Southeast Louisiana, a team they lost to, 92-88, on Jan. 20. Studying the matchup, I firmly believe McNeese State has more edges not to mention huge motivation. So I see outstanding line value. The Cowboys average 82.2 points per game. That's 15 more points per game than Southeast Louisiana. The Cowboys rank 10th in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.8 percent. The Lions, by contrast, are one of the worst from beyond the arc ranking 328th in 3-point percentage. The Lions also give up 76.4 points while ranking 328th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cowboys give up an average of 71.7 points. Southeast Louisiana is vulnerable inside to big man Keyshawn Feazell and to the long-rang perimeter shooting depth of the Cowboys. |
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02-23-21 | Oklahoma -9.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
The teams met back on Jan. 19. It was no contest. Oklahoma won, 76-50. I see a similar-type result here. Kansas State is actually in a fat and happy mood having upset TCU on the road this past Saturday, 62-54, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs. That ended a 13-game losing streak for the Wildcats. Oklahoma isn't going to take the Wildcats so lightly now especially after falling behind Iowa State in the second half during their matchup this past Saturday. The Sooners ended up winning by 10, but they were coasting in the first half with a 21-point lead. The Sooners hold edges across the board against Kansas State, including outscoring the Wildcats by an average of nearly 14 points a game. The Wildcats don't have much of a home-court either. Prior to beating TCU on the road, they lost by 18 points at home to Kansas six days ago. The Wildcats are just 9-23 ATS in their past 32 home contests.
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02-23-21 | Kings +6.5 v. Nets | 118-127 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Fat and happy the Nets return to Brooklyn having completed an impressive road sweep. They won five games in nine days with the last coming this past Sunday against the Clippers in a tight and dramatic, 112-108, win. One of the Nets' victories during this road trip was 136-125 against the Kings eight days ago. This is Brooklyn's first home game in two weeks. Why should the Nets care about the Kings, who have lost seven in a row and who they just dismantled? They shouldn't and probably won't. It's a monster letdown spot for the Nets. The Kings have been dangerous in one role - road underdog. They are 23-9 ATS the last 32 times in that situation. Brooklyn also has failed to cover seven of the past nine times it has been favored at home.
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02-23-21 | Pistons +3.5 v. Magic | 105-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
No matter how bad their roster looks, or how bad their last game was, it can be a mistake to automatically assume the Pistons are always going to get blown out. The youthful Pistons have a certain resiliency to them. Since Jan. 28 they have pulled off upset victories against the Lakers, Nets, Celtics and Pelicans. Orlando just defeated Detroit, 105-96, two days ago at home. The major storyline was Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier combining to score 66 points. But there were three other takeaways from that nine-point Detroit loss that shouldn't be overlooked: No. 1. Detroit shot 37.4 percent from the floor. Detroit shoots 43.5 percent from the floor on the season. Orlando ranks 16th in defensive field goal percentage. No. 2. Orlando shot 29 free throws, eight more free throws than Detroit. The Magic also made 26 giving them a 90 percent free throw shooting percentage. The Magic shoot 78.8 percent from the foul line on the season. No. 3. Dennis Smith Jr. failed to adequately replace starting point guard Delon Wright, who is out for Detroit because of a groin strain. However, rookie Saben Lee stepped up and looked outstanding. This is what Pistons coach Dwane Casey said about Lee's performance: ''He's competitive, he's tough, he just sets the tone. The whole complexion of the game changed when he came in.'' The Pistons have displayed their competitiveness by covering seven of the past 10 times following a loss. They also had covered four straight versus the Magic until that last game. |
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02-23-21 | Akron +2.5 v. Ohio | 73-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
The Zips give up nearly four points fewer per game than Ohio. Akron destroyed the Bobcats, 90-70, when they met Dec. 22. It was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings Akron has beaten Ohio. That was two months ago. But circumstances are even more in favor of Akron now. The Zips are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. They trail Toledo by just one-half game for first place in the Mid-American Conference. Ohio last played three weeks ago. The Bobcats have been set back by a COVID-19 outbreak. This has cost them practice time not to mention important game experience. I don't see them being anywhere in peak form in their first game back. Ohio coach Jeff Boals even said this himself. The Zips have won five of their last six road games. The lone defeat during this span occurred to league-leader Toledo. |
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02-22-21 | Eastern Kentucky -4 v. SE Missouri State | 87-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
I want Eastern Kentucky in this rapid revenge spot and the line is reasonable enough to get involved. Eastern Kentucky went into this past Saturday's game against Southeast Missouri State 18-6 and riding a three-game win and covering streak while averaging 88.3 points during this span. The Redhawks entered the matchup 9-14 and 5 1/2-point underdogs. Final score: Southeast Missouri State 94, Eastern Kentucky 72. Huh? The Redhawks were on fire hitting 14 of 25 3-point shots, way above their 35 percent season average. The Redhawks average fewer than 69 points per game on the season. They are below average defensively and commit a lot of turnovers. Eastern Kentucky had an off-game. The Colonels were outshot 58.3 percent to 36.2 percent from the floor. The Colonels are the 10th-highest scoring team in the nation at 82.5. I see them bouncing back in a big way here. Southeast Missouri State is 7-19-1 ATS the past 27 times following a spread cover. Eastern Kentucky has covered 16 of its last 22 road games. |
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02-21-21 | Wolves v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
Defense. Situation. Coaching. Everything adds up for the Knicks in this matchup. So I'm really surprised the line opened so short. Maybe it's because there's a perception the Knicks are still a bottom-feeder like the Timberwolves. They aren't. The Knicks have made tremendous strides under former Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau. New York has become the best defensive team in the NBA ranking first in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Knicks surrender 12 fewer points per game than Minnesota. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the league with a 7-23 record. They rank in the bottom-six both offensively and defensively. They are minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell. The Timberwolves are short-handed in the backcourt with Russell and Jarrett Culver both out. Minnesota will be playing its fourth game in six days. The previous three games all were at home. The Timberwolves have lost 12 of their last 14 road contests. The Knicks have been idle since Wednesday when they lost as a road favorite against the Magic, 107-89. That loss kept New York from reaching .500. Thibodeau, a defensive guru, has had extra preparation time to figure out how to adequately replace injured center Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks have won and covered five of their last seven home games. Obviously Thibodeau would like to beat the franchise that fired him midway through the 2018-19 season after he had led them to the playoffs the previous season. Minnesota hadn't made the postseason in 13 seasons before Thibodeau came along. The Knicks shouldn't lack motivation and focus. The stumbling Timberwolves already are in rebuild mode again. |
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02-21-21 | South Florida v. Temple +1 | 83-76 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Since returning from a month-long COVID-19 hiatus, South Florida has gone 0-3 SU and ATS losing to Central Florida, Houston and Tulane by a combined 36 points. This is just the Bulls' fourth game since Jan. 9. They have averaged just 63 points in their last three games. The Bulls have failed to reach 70 points in each of their last seven games. They are a bottom-20 free throw shooting team. Temple gives up fewer than 70 points a game. This is the Owls' first home game since Feb. 4. I think they're a bargain in this price range. |
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02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers -3 | 96-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
The Lakers are coming off a 109-98 home loss to the Nets this past Thursday. The Lakers haven't lost two straight home games all season. I don't see the Heat pulling off the feat. Miami has failed to step up all season. In their last 11 games, the Heat have played nine games against the Wizards (twice), Hornets, Rockets, Kings (twice), Knicks (twice) and Hornets. The only time they played above .500 teams during this span were matchups against the Jazz and Clippers. The Jazz beat the Heat by 18 points in Utah and the Clippers defeated the Heat by seven points in LA. Note the Clippers were minus Kawhi Leonard and Paul George when they knocked off the Heat. In the five games previous to their last 11 games, the Heat played the Clippers, Nuggets, Nets twice and Raptors. They went 0-5 in those tough matchups. Miami is 0-6 ATS the last six times it has gone against an above .500 opponent. Miami has gotten healthy. So I believe the Heat will start improving. But I don't think this is the spot for the Heat even with Anthony Davis out for LA. |
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02-20-21 | Illinois v. Minnesota +5.5 | 94-63 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
No major conference team is more different at home compared to the road than Minnesota. The difference is insane. The Gophers are 0-8 away and 13-1 at home. Minnesota's average home victory is by around 13 points. Among the teams the Gophers have knocked off at home are Purdue, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Gophers have covered eight of their last nine games in Minnesota. This also is a circle-the-wagons game for the Gophers, who probably can't afford a loss here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota also has revenge for a 92-65 road loss to Illinois. The Illini haven't been nearly as effective on the road. They've lost to Rutgers and needed overtime to post victories against Indiana and Nebraska, two games ago where they were 14-point favorites.
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02-20-21 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Fairleigh Dickinson -1 | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Fairleigh Dickinson has too much speed, quickness and backcourt edge for Mount St. Mary's. Fairleight Dickinson averages nearly 15 points more per game than Mount St. Mary's. The Knights can dent a strong Mount St. Mary's defense with excellent 3-point shooting. The Knights rank 19th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.8 percent. Mount St. Mary's has been held under 68 points in eight of its last nine games. |
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02-20-21 | New Hampshire +4 v. UMass Lowell | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering five of the last six times. I see that trend continuing here. New Hampshire gives up five fewer points per game than Lowell. The River Hawks have given up an average of 75.3 points in their last three games and are 8-18-1 ATS in their past 27 home games. |
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02-20-21 | Loyola Maryland v. Lehigh +4.5 | 75-47 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Lehigh hasn't played since Jan. 31. The Mountain Hawks are being penalized too severely on the line because of that. They would be above .500 if their six games against Bucknell and Navy were thrown out. Bucknell and Navy are a combined 15-6. Lehigh isn't in that class. But neither is Loyola Maryland. These are a pair of lower-tier Patriot League teams. Loyola Maryland is 2-7 on the season. The Greyhounds rank 287th defensively and 324th in 3-point defense. They have failed to cover their past four road games. The Greyhounds can't win close games either going 0-6 in games decided by four or fewer points. |
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02-19-21 | California Baptist +11 v. Grand Canyon | Top | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
I would be surprised to see California Baptist upset Grand Canyon straight-up. The Lancers are the 18th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 81.9 points a game. Grand Canyon is 12-3 compared to California Baptist's 10-7 mark. But the Antelopes' last eight victories have come against Bethesda and three of the worst teams in the Western Athletic Conference - Tarleton, Dixie State and New Mexico State. Oh, yes, the Antelopes haven't played since Jan. 30. So there's going to be a huge rust factor. |
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02-19-21 | Southern Miss v. Florida International -2.5 | 85-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
Florida International isn't good. But at this price range, the Panthers are worth backing. Southern Mississippi has lost eight straight games going 1-6-1 ATS in those contests. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 62 points during this losing streak. Florida International has scored more than 62 points in 19 of its 23 games. The Panthers have the best player on the court in Antonio Daye Jr. He gives the Panthers a huge backcourt advantage in this matchup.
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02-19-21 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Youngstown State -4.5 | 72-70 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
I consider this line short. Youngstown State is on a season-best five-game win streak. The Penguins are showing defensive improvement holding their last four opponents to 70 points or fewer. They are tough at home, too, going 8-3-1 ATS during their last 12 home contests. Youngstown State averages three points more per game than IUPUI and plays much better defense. The Jaguars rank 288th in scoring defense allowing 75.5 points a game. They are 327th in defensive field goal percentage. The Jaguars have failed to cover five of the last six times they've gone against an above .500 opponent.
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02-18-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
Wisconsin is 15-7. The Badgers win with defense. Only 20 teams surrender fewer points per game than the Badgers. Iowa is 15-6. The Hawkeyes win with offense. Only two teams score more points per game than Iowa. Look for defense to triumph over defense here. I like Wisconsin at home in this price range. The circumstances favor the Badgers, too. Iowa is getting too much respect following its 30-point dismantling of Michigan State this past Saturday. This is a down year for the Spartans. Now the Hawkeyes go on the road where they have failed to cover five of the last seven times.Wisconsin is mad after blowing a 12-point halftime lead to Michigan at home this past Sunday in a 67-59 loss to the third-ranked Wolverines. I don't see Wisconsin losing a second consecutive home contest. The Badgers are 11-3 in Madison this season. They also are 10-1-2 ATS the past 13 times following a loss. |
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02-17-21 | Iona v. Quinnipiac +6.5 | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
COVID-19 has been a definite handicapping factor this college basketball season. It certainly factors in this matchup and is a major reason why I like home 'dog Quinnipiac. Iona just returned from a COVID layoff of close to two months playing two home games against Manhattan this past Friday and Saturday. The Gaels were favored in both of those matchups and ended up splitting the two games. It was their first action since Dec. 23. No other school had gone longer between games this season. Now Iona plays a road game for the first time since Dec. 19. I don't think all of the rust is off yet, not to mention so many missed practices. This will be Quinnipiac's fifth game in 11 days. The Bobcats are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Quinnipiac is ranked 172nd defensively in the KenPom adjusted defensive rankings. The Bobcats have the seventh-best defensive field goal percentage in the nation. Iona is ranked 247th in the KenPom adjusted defensive ratings. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times in the series. So I'll take the points with the better defensive team in the better situation. |
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02-16-21 | Wagner +4.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's | 61-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm going to ride Wagner, which has won and covered its last five games. Mount St. Mary's is the stronger defensive team. But the Mountaineers don't have enough offense to cover this number. They rank 329th in the country in scoring at 63.5 points. The Mountaineers have been held under 68 points in six of their last seven games. Wagner has produced at least 74 points in eight of its past nine games.
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02-15-21 | Bulls +5.5 v. Pacers | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
It's a mistake to underestimate the Bulls on the road. During their last nine away games, the Bulls have beaten the Trail Blazers, Mavericks, Hornets and Magic. Their five losses have come by the grand total of 15 points to the Lakers (by two points), to the Clippers (by three points), to the Thunder in overtime (by two points), to the Kings (by four points) and to the Magic (by four points). Chicago has covered the past six times it has been a road 'dog. Indiana is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. The Pacers are returning to Indianapolis following a three-game road swing that ended this past Saturday night with a victory against the Hawks. This is the Pacers' first home game in eight days so their attention could be a bit off. Indiana is 6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games since an 8-4 start. So the Pacers are far from peak form. Chicago does have injuries - Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen are all likely to miss the game. Don't forget, though, the Pacers remain without T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert. |
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02-15-21 | Eastern Kentucky -8.5 v. Tennessee Tech | 83-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Eastern Kentucky defeated hapless Tennessee Tech, 90-80, last month despite not playing well. The Colonels were outshot from the field by Tennessee Tech and made just 4 of 7 free throws. Tennessee Tech was 9 of 12 from the foul line. The Colonels are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. That's 18 points more per game than the Golden Eagles average. Eastern Kentucky is 16-5. Tennessee Tech is 3-19. The Golden Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times facing an above .500 foe. Eastern Kentucky has covered 14 of its last 19 road contests and is 13-5-2 ATS the past 20 times going against foes with a losing record.
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02-15-21 | Stephen F Austin -9.5 v. New Orleans | 89-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Stephen F. Austin is 12-3. New Orleans is 4-12. So that accounts for the Lumberjacks being a strong road favorite. It just doesn't account enough in my view. The Lumberjacks have won nine of their last 10 games, scoring 78 or more points in all but one of those games. New Orleans surrenders 76 points a game. The Privateers have been at their worst lately giving up an average of 82 points in their past three games, all losses. The Privateers are 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 times facing an opponent with a winning record.
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02-13-21 | UL - Lafayette -2.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe | Top | 88-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
UL Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Warhawks are 5-15 and had lost 10 in a row until shocking Lafayette, 72-66, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. The loss dropped the Ragin' Cajuns to 13-7. Lafayette was flat and didn't shoot well making just 39 percent from the field when its season average is 44.7 percent. Monroe went all out playing three of their players at least 33 minutes. Russell Harrison and Koreem Ozier, the Warhawks' two leading scorers, played 36 and 34 minutes. So fatigue could factor against Monroe, which has a short bench, in this quick turnaround especially with travel involved as the venue changes. Only once in the last 10 seasons has Monroe swept Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are the superior team with better depth and this is a monster short revenge spot for them. Look for Lafayette senior guard Cedric Russell to play much better. He's one of the best players in the Sun Belt averaging 18.6 points. Russell missed 10 of 15 shots from the floor against Monroe. The Ragin' Cajuns average 74.7 points. Monroe ranks 322nd in the nation in scoring at 63.7 points.
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02-12-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Bulls | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Bulls for knocking off the hot Pelicans, 129-116, at home this past Wednesday. Chicago accomplished the feat by draining a franchise-best 25 3-pointers. Zach LaVine and Coby White led the way scoring a combined 76 points. I don't see the Bulls repeating their "A" level performance against the Clippers, an elite team that I rank three levels higher than Chicago. The question that needs to be answered is can the Clippers cover this mid-sized road number? They didn't cover an 8 1/2-point road spread in their last game, a 119-112 win against the Timberwolves two days ago. The Clippers started flat against Minnesota trailing by 13 points in the first half. I expect a better performance from the Clippers. LA also won't be taking Chicago lightly. The Bulls nearly upset the Clippers in the first meeting, losing 130-127 as 12-point road 'dogs on Jan. 10. The Bulls made an incredible 61 percent of their field goals in that game while the Clippers connected on 48.9 percent. Still, the Clippers still won by three points. Chicago is playing short-handed. Out are Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. Otto Porter Jr. missed the Pelicans' game with a back injury. So he may not play either. LaVine and White will have to step up in a big way again. Paul George is out for the Clippers with a toe injury. However, LA did get back lockdown defender guard Patrick Beverley against the Timberwolves. White shoots just 40.3 percent from the field. LaVine is a great scorer, but he may be the worst defensive guard in the NBA. Kawhi Leonard is playing at a high level for the Clippers. So whatever LaVine gets he's likely to give back even more. The Clippers rank fifth defensively and are ninth in 3-point defense. Chicago ranks 27th defensively. A motivated Clippers team should beat a short-handed Bulls team by double-digits. |
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02-12-21 | Bellarmine v. North Alabama +6 | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an important Atlantic Sun Conference game especially for North Alabama. If the Lions can pull the outright upset they would trail Bellarmine by just one game in the loss column for the conference lead. North Alabama only has been this big of a 'dog once this season and that was back in December against Indiana. Bellarmine has failed to cover in seven of the past eight instances when meeting an above .500 opponent.
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02-12-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee +17.5 v. Wright State | 81-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off a pair of home upset losses to hot Northern Kentucky, which has now won six in a row. That probably has contributed to this line being over inflated in my view. UWM was 2-1 in its three previous games, including a road upset overtime win against Cleveland State, the Horizon League leader. If the Panthers can upset Cleveland State they should be able to keep within single digits of Wright State. It was a four-point game when the teams last met on Jan. 31, 2020 with Wright State prevailing, 65-61.
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02-12-21 | Middle Tennessee +17 v. Marshall | 79-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
It has been a disappointing season for 5-11 Middle Tennessee State. But the Blue Raiders should not be this large of an underdog. Middle Tennessee State lacks Marshall's firepower, but gives up five fewer points per game than the Thundering Herd. The Blue Raiders have been particularly strong in defending 3-point shots ranking 12th in the nation. The Blue Raiders enter this matchup with a little momentum and confidence, too, coming off consecutive victories against Charlotte. This has been an underdog series with the favorite failing to cover the past four times.
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02-11-21 | Pacers -3 v. Pistons | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
Returning to Detroit after going 0-4 on their West Coast trip, the Pistons upset the Nets, 122-111, at home this past Tuesday. The Pistons are capable of pulling off a surprise like this. Just ask the Lakers. But by no means are the Pistons a good team. They have yet to win consecutive games this season. I don't see it happening today against the Pacers either. Indiana is at low ebb. The Pacers have dropped a season-high four games in a row. They have been held to their lowest scoring performances in each of their last two games. Brooklyn just defeated Indiana, 104-94, at home Wednesday night. Let's look, though, at who the Pacers have lost to during their skid. They were beaten by the Bucks, the Pelicans - who were playing their basketball of the season with four victories in a row until losing to the Bulls on Wednesday - the Jazz, who are the hottest team in the NBA, and the Nets of James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Now the Pacers are dropping way down in class meeting the Pistons. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers were idle this past Monday and Tuesday before losing to the Nets last night. So there isn't a fatigue factor. Indiana also is 4-1 ATS the last five times on the second of back-to-back games. The Pacers have excelled in this spot going 11-3-1 ATS the past 15 times as a road favorite.
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02-11-21 | Texas State v. Texas-Arlington +1.5 | 63-56 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
Texas-Arlington opened a slight underdog. The 'dog has covered each of the last seven times in this series. But Arlington shouldn't be a home 'dog. The Mavericks would be riding a five-game win streak if not for an overtime loss to Arkansas State. The Mavericks average eight more points per game than Texas State and give up fewer than 70 points per game. The Bobcats average only 66.8 points on the season. They have averaged just 63 points in regulation during their last four games. |
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02-11-21 | Eastern Washington -2.5 v. Montana State | 93-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm perplexed how short this line is because I rate Eastern Washington much higher than Montana State. The Eagles are on a five-game win streak and have covered 11 of their last 15 away games. Montana State is off a pair of road losses to Weber State in games that weren't close. The Bobcats are 1-5 ATS the past six times when going against an above .500 opponent. |
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02-11-21 | Weber State v. Montana +1 | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
Montana is 7-5 in its last 12 games. But the Grizzlies' record is deceiving. They have lost a number of close games, including a six-point road loss to Arizona. The Grizzlies have a strong defense ranking 38th in the nation giving up 63.6 points per game. They also rate 25th in 3-point defense. That's a huge factor because Weber State is a strong perimeter shooting team. The Wildcats surrender six more points per game than Montana. This is not a good matchup for Weber State.
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02-11-21 | Long Island +4 v. Mt. St. Mary's | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
This is only the second time all season Long Island is an underdog. The Shark beat Wagner, 77-66, as 1-point road 'dogs on Jan. 14. I don't think they should be an underdog in this game to Mount St. Mary's. Mount St. Mary's is 5-5 in its last 10 games, losing two of its last three games while favored against Sacred Heart and Central Connecticut State. |
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02-11-21 | Winthrop -3.5 v. Radford | 80-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
There's a huge class difference here that's not fully incorporated into the line. Winthrop had opened with 16 consecutive victories until losing, 57-55, as 12 1/2-point home favorites against UNC-Asheville in its last game. That was two weeks ago. The Eagles haven't played since. So they are more than ready to put that disturbing upset loss behind them. The Eagles are the class of the Big South Conference. Radford is a surprising 13-7, in second-place behind Winthrop in the league standings despite losing all of its top scorers from last season. None of Radford's players average double figures in scoring. Winthrop ranks 22nd in the nation in scoring at 81.3 points and has the conference's likely MVP in Chandler Vaudrin. Winthrop has proven itself in this type of situation going 13-4 ATS versus above .500 opponents and covering 17 of its past 24 road contests. |
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02-10-21 | Bucks v. Suns +4.5 | Top | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
The Suns showed their improvement last season going unbeaten in the Orlando bubble. The lone team to do that during the rebooted season. Phoenix's improvement has carried into this season. The Suns are 14-9 and have a real shot to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Phoenix has the fourth-ranked defense in the league, emerging superstar Devin Booker and underrated team depth. This is a rare nationally televised (ESPN) home game for the Suns, who will be allowing around 1,500 fans into their arena. The Suns have covered eight of the last 10 times they've been underdogs. This will be Booker's sixth game back following a hamstring injury. He's back in top form both scoring and dishing off. The Suns obviously are going to be sky-high for this matchup. Milwaukee is riding a season-best five-game win streak. This handicap isn't a fade on the Bucks. It's far more about the Suns. But Milwaukee has to be a little fat and happy after dismantling the Nuggets, 125-112, at Denver this past Monday to go 3-0 on its current six-game road swing. This also marks the Bucks' fourth game in six days. I'm liking the Suns to cover, if not win, with the expectation they won't have Chris Paul. He missed the Suns' last game, a 119-113 home win against the Cavaliers, this past Monday with a hamstring injury. E'Twaun Moore and Booker stepped up nicely in Paul's absence. The Bucks also are likely to be missing their best point guard with Jrue Holiday in COVID-19 protocol. Word is that Holiday has tested positive for COVID-19. Phoenix is 6-1 in its last seven games and has defeated the Bucks in three of the past four meetings. |
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02-10-21 | Old Dominion v. Charlotte -1.5 | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
I see good value in backing UNC Charlotte at home against Old Dominion even if the Monarchs get back guards Malik Curry and A.J. Oliver as expected. Curry is the Monarchs' leading scorer at 16.5 points. Charlotte has too much defense for Old Dominion and the Monarchs don't have enough offense to counter. The Monarchs rank 313th in the nation in scoring. They also are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road contests. The 49ers hold foes to 64.3 points a game, which ranks 47th. It's also six points fewer per game than Old Dominion gives up. Charlotte has won its last three home games, but is coming off a pair of road losses to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers are 15-6-1 ATS following a straight-up defeat.
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02-09-21 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Panthers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
The record hadn't reflected it until this past Sunday, but the Red Wings have been making progress. They finally halted an eight-game winless streak by defeating Florida, 4-1, on the road this past Sunday. Detroit's reward? The Red Wings are monster underdogs to the Panthers. Florida should not be this high of a favorite against any team. I'm going to take advantage of what I consider a mispriced line to lay small extra juice on the puck line in order to get the Red Wings at plus 1 1/2 goals. There has been just a one-goal difference in seven of Florida's last eight games. The only game that was decided by a single goal during this span was the Red Wings' three-goal Sunday victory. Note that if given 1 1/2 goals, the Red Wings would hold a winning record during their last 12 games.
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02-09-21 | Kent State v. Bowling Green | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
It has been a disappointing season for Bowling Green, who some thought would win the MAC title this season. I see the Falcons prevailing, though, in this quick revenge spot and in stop-the-pain mode. Kent State defeated the Falcons, 96-91, at home on Jan. 27. The Golden Flashes shot 49 percent from the floor and made 17 of 21 free throws for 81 percent. Bowling Green shot 46 percent from the field and made 11 of 15 free throws. The Falcons have a strong senior group led by Justin Turner and Daeqwon Plowden. It's not too much to ask of the Falcons to just win the game.
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02-08-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
It's not so much who you play, but when you play them. That's a major handicap when dealing with the NBA regular season. It's a reason why I'm backing the underdog Cavaliers, who are 1-5 in their last six games and coming off three blowout home losses while the Suns are 5-1 in their last six games. Phoenix has opened its current seven-game homestand with victories against the Pistons and Celtics on Sunday. Following this game, the Suns host the Bucks on Wednesday and then 76ers on Saturday. The Suns are fat and happy right now with a pair of far more challenging and marquee matchups on deck. Cleveland, though, is improved. The Cavaliers have talent with Andre Drummond and an underrated backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Yes, the Cavs were blown out at home in their last three games. Two of those losses came to the Bucks and the other came against the Clippers, who had both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in their lineup. Those are "A" level opponents. Phoenix isn't in that class. The Cavaliers want to begin again and this is their chance, the start of a five-game West Coast trip. Cleveland ranks ninth defensively, but 29th in scoring averaging 103.6. The Suns, however, are averaging only 105.5 points in regulation during their past seven games. That's fewer than two points more per game than Cleveland. Phoenix also carries a fatigue rating. This is the Suns' fourth game in six days and second in two days.
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02-08-21 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -11.5 | Top | 61-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
Nebraska has lost 23 straight Big Ten Conference games. Don't expect that streak to end here. Not at Minnesota. The Cornhuskers played for the first time since Jan. 10 because of COVID issues this past Saturday and lost, 66-56, at Michigan State. The obviously rusty Cornhuskers shot just 36.2 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point territory. Minnesota is 0-6 on the road, but 11-1 at home. The Gophers have covered six of their last seven home contests. One of their home victories was 81-56 against Michigan State, which just defeated Nebraska.
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02-06-21 | Pistons +14 v. Lakers | 129-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
It was 10 days ago that the Pistons upset the Lakers, 107-92, as 7-point home 'dogs. Now it's the Lakers' turn to return the favor and this time they have Anthony Davis, who missed the earlier Pistons game. But having Davis and home-court isn't worth seven extra points.The oddsmaker didn't think so opening this game Lakers minus 13. Early marketplace activity has put the Lakers up to minus 14. Yes, this is a revenge spot. But the Lakers aren't some up-and-coming team out to settle personal grudges. They followed up a grueling 5-2 road trip with an impressive home victory against the Nuggets on Thursday night. LA has played well this season, but its goal is to peak when the playoffs come round just like last season. The Lakers will take care of business here, but they have no need to go all out to bury the Pistons, who they won't see again. Note that the Lakers are 1-5 ATS the past six times versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. After upsetting the Lakers, the Pistons took to the road. This is the finale of a four-game West Coast trip that has not gone well. Detroit is 0-3 on their its losing by 27 points to the Warriors, by 12 to the red-hot Jazz and by 17 to the much-improved Suns. So this is a stop-the-pain game for the Pistons, who should play the Lakers with more confidence than most teams.
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02-06-21 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Pelicans | 109-118 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Memphis had won and covered seven in a row until its last two games, losses to the Rockets and Pacers. So the Grizzlies are pointing to this matchup especially JaMorant, who treats this opponent with extra special motivation because Zion Williamson was drafted ahead of him. The timing is good for Memphis because it gets back big man Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen to help its backcourt depth. Valanciunas' return is huge because the Pelicans are dangerous inside with Williamson and Steven Adams. New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in points in the paint. The Grizzlies have won six of their eight road contests, while the Pelicans are 5-5 at home. New Orleans is coming off consecutive victories against the Suns followed by an upset victory at Indiana, 114-113, two days ago. The Pelicans have not won three games in a row all season. They also are 1-7 ATS the last eight times as a home favorite.
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02-06-21 | Northwestern v. Purdue -7 | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Purdue should be a double-digit favorite at home against Northwestern, which has lost eight in a row while going 1-7 ATS in those games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the past seven times facing an above .500 foe. The Boilermakers are anxious to put a 61-60 rough loss to Maryland on Tuesday behind them. They hold a big edge inside with Trevion Williams and are expected to get back their second-leading scorer, Sasha Stefanovic. He has missed the last three games due to COVID-19 protocols. He's one of the top 3-point shooters in the Big Ten.
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02-06-21 | Evansville +20.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 55-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Oddsmakers are projecting a low-scoring game and I agree. So taking this many points makes sense, which it often does in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola has the best defense not just in the MVC, but in the entire country. The Ramblers give up only 56.2 points a game. Evansville, however, is in good current form with consecutive victories against Valparaiso. The Purple Aces are holding foes to 67.2 points per game. They just held Valparaiso to 52 and 51 points in their last two games. Evansville is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games.
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02-06-21 | NC State -3.5 v. Boston College | 81-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
North Carolina State is the superior team. The Wolfpack are 7-7 and 3-6 in the ACC while Boston College is 3-10 and 1-6 in the ACC. The point spread with NC State a road favorite accounts for that. But what it doesn't fully account for is Boston College's situation. The Eagles haven't played in three weeks due to COVID-19 issues. Not only are they rusty, but their rotation could be unsettled. Walk-ons could draw important minutes. NC State has kept playing. The Wolfpack gave 14th-ranked Virginia a scare in their last game before losing, 64-47, this past Wednesday.
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02-05-21 | California Baptist +10.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
This line is way off in my view. New Mexico State will be fortunate to beat Cal-Baptiste, which has a better record than the Lobos and far more firepower. Yes, New Mexico State is home and getting close to full strength. But the Lobos are one of the weaker teams in the Western Athletic Conference seeking their first league win. Their home games are being played in a high school gym in El Paso with no spectators allowed. El Paso is 46 miles from Las Cruces, which is where New Mexico State is located. So the Lobos really don't have a home-court edge. Cal-Baptiste leagues the WAC in scoring at 83.5 points. The Lancers have two excellent outside shooters in Ty Rowell and Reed Nottage. They've helped the Lancers rank eighth in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39.9 percent. The Lancers do a good job moving the ball around, too, ranking No. 2 in the country in assist percentage on made field goals and they have a very good rim protector in 6-foot-11 Gorjok Gak. He averages nearly 11 rebounds and two blocks per game, while shooting better than 61 percent from the floor. New Mexico State has been held to fewer than 64 points in three of its last four games. The Lancers had won five in a row until suffering a 79-75 home upset loss to Dixie State this past Saturday. I expect Cal-Baptiste to bounce back in strong fashion. The Lancers haven't had two straight non-covers all season. They also have covered 13 of their last 17 road games.
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02-05-21 | Oral Roberts +5 v. North Dakota State | 54-61 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
There are four decent teams in the Summit League. These are two of them. North Dakota State is 10-8. Oral Roberts is 9-7. Oral Roberts averages 81.5 points, which ranks 24th in the nation. The Golden Eagles average 14 more points per game than North Dakota State. The Golden Eagles also have covered six of their last eight road games. They are 4-0 during their past four away contests averaging 90 points in those games. That's too much firepower for North Dakota State.
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02-05-21 | Jazz v. Hornets +8.5 | 138-121 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Early marketplace activity has been on Utah. It's understandable considering the Jazz have won 13 of their last 14 and just rolled past the Hawks, 112-91, on Thursday to open their 3-game road trip. This looms as a flat spot, though, for the Jazz. They have a tougher game against the Pacers on deck Sunday. After that game, Utah goes home to play the Celtics and Bucks. This also mark's Utah's third game in four days and fifth matchup in eight days. The Hornets are a spunky team at best in an underdog role where they are 20-7-2 (74 percent) the past 29 times taking points. This includes a money-banking 9-2-1 ATS mark as a home 'dog. Charlotte likely won't have starting power forward P.J. Washington again. He's out with a foot injury. But underrated big man Cody Zeller is back and the Hornets also expect to have shooting guard Terry Rozier in the lineup after he missed time with an ankle injury. The Jazz have been hot from 3-point range. The Hornets have an above average 3-point defense to counter that.
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02-05-21 | Wizards +6.5 v. Heat | 95-122 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
I realize the defending Eastern Conference champion Heat are much better than their 7-14 record. By the same token, though, the Wizards are better than their 5-13 record now that they finally are at full strength. Both teams have to deal with injuries and extensive COVID-19 issues. Miami, however, can not be laying this many points to an opponent who is better than perceived at this stage of their season right now. The Heat are 1-7 in their last eight games. They just were outplayed by the Wizards in a 103-100 loss as 9-point home favorites this past Wednesday. Russell Westbrook didn't even play in that game. Westbrook was rested. He's back in action for this one teaming up with Bradley Beal, who torched Miami for 32 points two days ago. The Wizards are a far more respectable team with Davis Bertans, Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura all back in the rotation. The Heat have several key players rounding into shape from injuries and sickness, including Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Miami is 0-7-1 ATS the last eight times when favored.
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02-04-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | 93-114 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
As great as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are, nobody has been playing as well as Denver big man Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets ended the Jazz's 11-game win streak in their last game. That was back on Sunday. So the Nuggets have had ample rest and preparation time. Denver has been pointing to this matchup, the first time the Nuggets are playing the Lakers after LA beat them in the conference finals. This is the Lakers' first home game following a seven-game road trip that concluded with a 107-99 victory against the Hawks this past Monday. So it's not an ideal spot for the Lakers. The Lakers are 16-6, but they are far from being in peak form. They are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. During this home span the Lakers lost 115-113 to the Warriors, defeated the Pelicans, 112-95, nipped the Bulls, 117-115, lost to the Spurs, 118-109, and fell to the Trail Blazers, 115-107.
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