Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-23-19 | Browns v. Bucs +3 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 58 h 10 m | Show |
Beating preseason football is about finding teams who care meeting those who don't while also getting value on the line. This pattern fits the Buccaneers right now in their Friday home game against the Browns. Tampa Bay has been preparing for this matchup like it were a regular-season game. Jameis Winston figures to see his most action. The Buccaneers have a deep set of quality wide receivers and a preseason superstar in backup quarterback Ryan Griffin, who has thrown for 531 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in Tampa Bay's first two preseason contests. Browns coach Freddie Kitchens said he won't reveal how much his starters are going to play Friday, but indications are the Browns won't be treating this exhibition as serious as Tampa Bay. Cleveland is sitting at 2-0 with nothing to prove. The Browns aren't likely to use Odell Beckham Jr. and Myles Garrett because they aren't 100 percent. Cleveland is a false favorite here based on perception with its unbeaten preseason record and tremendous hype. The Bucs are home and the likely team to treat this game more serious than the Browns.
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08-22-19 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
The Dodgers simply don't lose at home. They have won 79 percent of their last 57 home games going 45-12. No baseball team can match that. Toronto went through its bullpen trying to beat the Dodgers on Wednesday. The Blue Jays came close, but lost, 2-1, in 10 innings. I don't see the Blue Jays being able to hang against the Dodgers a second straight time in a pitching matchup of rookie Jacob Waguespack versus Kenta Maeda. Prior to Wednesday, the Dodgers' last six victories were by an average of 8.3 runs. Waguespack has a 4.20 ERA. The Dodgers rank in the top four in runs and homers. Maeda has a history of pitching much better at Dodger Stadium. That history has held up this season where he is 6-3 with a 2.84 ERA at home. LA has won eight of his past 11 home starts. Toronto has dropped 14 of its last 17 interleague games, including the past eight when going against a righty starter. |
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08-20-19 | White Sox v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
Returning home following a 5-1 road trip, the Twins were knocked off by the White Sox, 6-4, on Monday. It was just the fourth time in the last 15 meetings the White Sox have defeated Minnesota. I don't see the Twins losing a second straight time to Chicago at home. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez had been pitching well - until this past Thursday when he was tagged for five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Twins lead the majors in homers and rank second in runs. Nelson Cruz, Minnesota's second-leading home run hitter with 32, has recovered from a wrist injury and is back in the lineup. Lopez has struggled versus Minnesota in his career with a 5.46 ERA in five starts. Twins starter Michael Pineda has been amazing consistent yielding three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts. Pineda has a 3.08 lifetime ERA against the White Sox in six starts. Minnesota has won by more than one run during 10 of its last 11 victories.
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08-17-19 | Montreal +7 v. Calgary | 40-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 40 m | Show | |
Quarterback injuries factor here. So does getting this many points in an inter-division matchup. Vernon Adams has been taking first team reps so he should be back under center for Montreal. It's not so certain if Bo Levi Mitchell will return for Calgary. Sources say he has a sore arm. The Stampeders are likely to be without two starting linebackers, too. That's a huge plus for William Stanback, who is in the argument for best running back in the CFL. He's the league's second-leading rusher. Montreal also gets back deep threat DeVier Posey, who has missed the last three games with a calf injury.
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08-17-19 | Hamilton v. Ottawa +4 | 21-7 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 0 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by Hamilton running away with the East Division. The Tiger-Cats are 5-0 at home, but 1-2 on the road. They have failed to cover four of their last five away contests. It's a dangerous spot, too, for the Tiger-Cats laying points to a hungry and frustrated Ottawa team after going all out last week to nip BC, 35-34. The Tiger-Cats pulled off that victory by coming from 15 points down in the fourth quarter. This is a much bigger game for the Redblacks being home and saddled with a 3-5 record. The Redblacks have covered the past four times they've met the Tiger-Cats and are 7-3 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
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08-15-19 | Raiders v. Cardinals -3 | Top | 33-26 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
Barnum & Bailey otherwise known as the Oakland Raiders' traveling circus visits the desert Thursday. Arizona hosts Oakland looking to go 2-0 in preseason under rookie NFL head coach Kliff Kingsbury. The Cardinals opened with a win and cover beating the Chargers, 17-3, at home last Thursday. Kingsbury certainly wouldn't mind cheering up long-suffering Cardinal fans with another home victory as this will be Arizona's final preseason home game. The Cardinals conclude preseason with road matchups against the Vikings and Broncos. The Raiders have a huge disadvantage playing on the road in a short week after defeating the Rams, 14-3, at home this past Saturday night. It's been a crazy week for the Raiders with Hard Knocks filming and Antonio Brown hogging headlines with his insane antics. So the Cardinals check the boxes when it comes to situation, being the more focused team and motivation in laying positive groundwork for a new coach. Another key in preseason is quarterback rotation. I like what the Cardinals have compared to the Raiders. Kyler Murray played a series last week. He is expected to play longer against the Raiders as the Cardinal need to get their rookie signal-caller more actual game experience. The Raiders don't need to do that with their starter, Derek Carr. I like Murray better than Carr given Murray's mobility and high ceiling. I also prefer Brett Hundley, Arizona's second-string quarterback, much more than Oakland backup quarterbacks Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman. Hundley is one of the better preseason quarterbacks. He was 10 of 14 for 104 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers last week. The immobile Glennon was picked off twice without throwing a touchdown pass in his 2019 preseason debut last Thursday. As for Peterman, the less said the better. He is not only one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, but in NFL history. This is the start - and possible - end of Peterman's NFL career after two seasons with Buffalo where he compiled passer ratings of 30.7 and 38.4 with a 3-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. |
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08-10-19 | Rams +5 v. Raiders | Top | 3-14 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
There is a time when Blake Bortles is useful. That time is now. Bortles is now the backup quarterback for the Rams. He's going to see extended playing time against the Raiders. Bortles loves Sean McVay's scheme and system. The Rams will be holding out their star skill position players. Bortles, though, has worked extensively with the second unit. So he already has a rapport with Mike Thomas and JoJo Natson. The Rams have an underrated running back, rookie Darrell Henderson. He could make his mark in this game as the Raiders' defense doesn't look much better than last season's unti that gave up an NFL-worst 29.2 points per game and had only 13 sacks. The teams have held joint practices the past couple of days and the Rams have come away as the far superior team, which they are. The Rams beat the Raiders, 19-15, at home during preseason last year. The Raiders also have been distracted by the filming of Hard Knocks and Antonio Brown's ridiculous behavior. |
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08-04-19 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rangers | 4-9 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Detroit is the worst team in baseball. However, if you add 1 1/2 runs the Tigers are 8-4 in their last 12 games. The Tigers have lost by identical 5-4 scores during the first two games of this series. Before slipping past the Tigers during the past two games, the Rangers were 8-18 in their last 26 games. They have no business laying this high of a price especially with rookie Pedro Payano drawing the start. Payano is making his second big league start after being in the bullpen. He had a 4.40 ERA in the minors before coming up to the Rangers. Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann finally picked up his first victory of the year in his last start holding the Angels to two runs in 5 1/3 innings. |
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08-02-19 | Ottawa +7.5 v. Montreal | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
The Alouettes are on a three-game win streak and favored for the first time this season. This isn't a little number either. Montreal hasn't won four straight games since 2014. I'm not sold that the Alouettes can cover a touchdown. They are off a bye. But I don't see that as a good thing. It can slow their momentum. It's a big plus for the Redblacks if they get starting quarterback Dominque Davis back for this game. I think Davis plays. But if he doesn't, I like Ottawa at this price anyways. Backup QB Jonathon Jennings was a lot better in his second start completing 15 of 18 passes and the Redblacks defense has looked better. Ottawa has covered 70 percent of its past 37 road games and is 6-0 ATS the past six times playing at Montreal.
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08-01-19 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
I don't see Hamilton beating Saskatchewan on the road after losing its starting quarterback, Jeremiah Mosaoli, for the season this past Friday after Masoli suffered a torn ACL. The Tiger-Cats have to turn to second-year QB Dane Evans. The Roughriders are back home after a pair of victories against British Columbia. They have momentum and revenge for a 23-17 road loss to Hamilton opening week. The Roughriders have dominated the Tiger-Cats at home going 17-4-1 ATS. Saskatchewan QB Cody Fajardo is ahead of his counterpart Evans. Fajardo has made five CFL starts and is coming off a 21-for-26 passing game and 46 yards rushing.
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07-27-19 | Astros -1.5 v. Cardinals | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
The Cardinals are hot, but they are not beating Gerrit Cole. The Astros are healthy for the first time with the return of star shortstop Carlos Correa, who had missed 50 games because of a broken rib. Houston has been playing well, too, winning seven of its last nine. Cole was named AL Pitcher of the Month in June. He hasn't leveled off this month going 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in four July starts. Cole leads the majors in strikeouts. He has a 2.03 ERA during his past seven starts. Daniel Ponce de Leon is the Cardinals' No. 5 pitcher. He's failed to finish four innings during each of his last two starts, both of which came against the Pirates. Now he steps way up in class.
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07-27-19 | Saskatchewan v. BC +3 | 45-18 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
Sharps play the CFL and the sharps are on British Columbia in this matchup. It makes sense. The Lions are in do-or-die mode at 1-5. BC also has short revenge for a 38-25 road loss suffered to Saskatchewan last week. The Lions outgained the Roughriders in that loss by nearly 100 yards. The Lions have a very good CFL quarterback, Mike Reilly. They just need to protect him better as Reilly has been sacked 21 times. The Roughriders have covered just once during their past five visits to BC.
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07-25-19 | Calgary -5 v. Ottawa | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 22 m | Show |
I like Calgary in a revenge spot for an opening week, 32-28, loss to Ottawa as a 9-point home favorite. The Stampeders have won three of their last four games since then. Their defense has improved giving up an average of 18.6 points a game during their past three games. Nick Arbuckle has been doing a solid job at quarterback for Calgary replacing injured Bo Levi Mitchell. Ottawa really is struggling offensively scoring 14, 19 and one point during its last three games. The RedBlacks have a long injury list headed by quarterback Dominique Davis. Minus Davis and wide receiver R.J. Harris, Ottawa was held to 12 first downs and 175 yards in its 31-1 loss to Winnipeg last Friday. I don't see the RedBlacks solving their problems, especially at quarterback, in time for this matchup.
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07-20-19 | Edmonton -5.5 v. Montreal | 10-20 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
The Eskimos have dominated the Alouettes winning 10 in a row with all of those victories except one coming by at least four points. Edmonton has covered the last five times in Montreal, too. I see that trend playing out here. Montreal is playing better. But the Alouettes are stepping up in class facing a hot Edmonton quarterback Trevor Harris, who has completed 73 percent of his throws with an 8-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Alouettes don't have enough quality defenders to stop all of the Eskimos' firepower. Edmonton also has been playing tough defense giving up the fewest yards per game in the CFL.
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07-18-19 | Toronto v. Calgary -11.5 | 16-26 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 38 m | Show | |
I see this as a kill spot for the Stampeders after they lost, 30-23, on the road to Hamilton last week. Calgary is home this week and taking on the worst team in the CFL - Toronto. The winless Argos are last in both points allowed and points score. Toronto averages just 14.8 points a game, while surrendering an average of 40.5 points. Nick Arbuckle has proven hinself for the Stampeders after they lost starting quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. The Stampeders have covered seven of the last eight in this series.
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07-17-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Despite losing yesterday to the Blue Jays, the Red Sox have beaten Toronto 13 of the past 18 times at Fenway Park. I like the Red Sox's chances so much in a pitching matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus lefty Edduardo Rodriguez that I'm laying Boston on the run line. Sanchez is 3-13 with a 6.22 ERA. He should not be in any team's starting rotation. Sanchez has lost nine straight games. The Blue Jays are 5-18 the past 23 times Sanchez has faced an above .500 opponent. Rodriguez is 4-0 during his past four starts. He is 4-1 with a 3.95 ERA in nine home starts this year. Boston is 23-5 the last 28 times Rodriguez has pitched at home against a foe with a losing record. Toronto is 10-29 in its last 39 games when going against a southpaw starter.
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07-13-19 | Calgary v. Hamilton -3.5 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show | |
Hamilton should be going all out after suffering an embarrassing, 36-29, to Montreal as 14-point road favorites last week. The Tiger-Cats draw Calgary coming off a smashing 37-10 road upset win against Saskatchewan last Saturday. The Stampeders won that game despite being without their star quarterback, Bo Levi Mitchell, who is out again this week with a shoulder injury. This is the Stampeders' second straight road game going with backup QB Nick Arbuckle. Hamilton is the No. 1 offensive team in the CFL. Calgary has multiple defensive injuries on its front line. It's difficult to envision the Stampeders defense keeping the Tiger-Cats' top-notch offense under control especially after last week's tremendous road effort. The Tiger-Cats have won and covered both of their home games this year holding Saskatchewan and Montreal to a combined 27 points in those two games.
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07-12-19 | Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -126 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
I want the Astros going for me coming off a 5-0 shutout loss to Lance Lynn and the Rangers Thursday night. The Astros are back healthy with the exception of Carlos Correa. They drop way down in class going from facing Lynn to journeyman Jesse Chavez, who I consider more of a relief pitcher than starter Chavez will be making his fourth start. He's getting worse having allowed seven earned in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He is off a season-high 90-pitch count. The Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors, while the Astros' relief corps is among the best. Astros starter Gerrit Cole was the AL Pitcher of the Month in June. He is 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last eight starts with 70 strikeouts in 51 innings. The Rangers are really missing injured Hunter Pence. They are averaging just 3.7 runs in their last 11 games discounting a 9-3 Fourth of July victory against the Angels. Each of the Rangers' past six losses have come by more than one run.
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07-07-19 | Marlins v. Braves -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
After getting nipped by the Marlins, 5-4, on Saturday I see the Braves bouncing back in a big way today. Atlanta is 7-1 the past eight times following a defeat. The Braves are 13-4 in their last 17 home games and had defeated the Marlins eight consecutive times until Saturday. Miami starter Trevor Richards has a 6.53 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are hitting .333 against the righty during this span. The Marlins have lost 10 of Richards' last 12 road starts. Atlanta is 18-6 in its last 24 games facing a righty starter. Dallas Keuchel is making his fourth start for Atlanta. Keuchel has looked better in each of his outings. He held the Phillies to two runs on five hits in seven innings at home in his last start this past Tuesday.
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07-06-19 | Angels v. Astros -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Gerrit Cole was the best pitcher in the American League during June going 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 38 innings spanning six starts. He is an elite pitcher. Houston is 21-5 in Cole's last 26 home starts. Lefty Andrew Heaney gets the start for the Angels. Heaney is a high strikeout, high ERA type pitcher. He has a 5.40 ERA this season and has a lifetime 6.00 ERA in two starts at Minute Maid Park. While Cole is in great form, Heaney gave up five runs on six hits and a walk in six innings in a loss to the A's during his last start this past Sunday. The Angels are 2-9 in Heaney's last 11 road starts against an above .500 team. Houston also is 19-6 versus southpaws this season. Each of the Angels' last seven losses have been by more than one run. So I feel confident taking the big chalk home Astros giving up 1 1/2 runs on the run line in order to knock down the high juice.
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07-06-19 | BC -7.5 v. Toronto | 18-17 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Both teams are winless, but BC has the superior talent. The Lions have a huge edge at quarterback with Mike Reilly against backup McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who is replacing injured James Franklin. Toronto has managed just two touchdowns on offense in opening 0-2. The Argos have lost their games by an average of 37.5 points. Part of their problem on offense is a porous offensive line. BC blew a 32-21 lead with four minutes left against Calgary last week. That was a brutal loss for the Lions, who outplayed the Stampeders for much of the game. Word is the Lions have had a good week of practice and are highly motivated to get their first win here. The Argos are trying to stay upbeat. But they are a bad team and this is a bad spot for them. They just played on Monday and now are playing five days later. They've only had two days of practice after returning home to Regina on a red eye following their Monday game.
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg +4 v. Ottawa | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 77 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm taking the points in this battle of unbeatens. The Blue Bombers have a lot of weapons with Andrew Harris, Darvin Adams, Chris Matthews, Nic Demski and Lucky Whitehead, who is one of the most exciting players in the CFL. Winning has covered 72 percent of its last 29 road games. The Blue Bombers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall games. They are 4-0 ATS during their past four visits on Ottawa.
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07-03-19 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
The Dodgers are just too tough especially at home where they have won 43 of their last 55 games. That's a winning percentage of 78 percent. LA is 9-3 in Walker Buehler's last 12 home games. Buehler is pitching on extra rest. The Dodgers are 9-1 the past 10 times Buehler has pitched on five days rest. Buehler faced the Diamondbacks a month ago holding them to one run in eight innings while giving up two hits with no walks and 11 strikeouts. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has a 4.99 road ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA in his last three starts. The Dodgers' bullpen has been pitching much better than the Diamondbacks' bullpen during the last few weeks. Arizona closer Greg Holland blew a save Tuesday night by walking four straight batters.
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07-02-19 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
The Nationals are making a move winning 11 of their last 15 games to stay in wild card contention. Washington should beat the Marlins by multiple runs in a pitching matchup of rookie Zac Gallen against Patrick Corbin. As great as Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are, the Marlins probably would least like to face southpaw Corbin. The Marlins are 11-23 in their last 34 road games against a lefty starter. They rank 12th in the National League against southpaws with a .239 average and have hit the fewest homers in the NL against lefties. Cobin has dominated Miami in his two previous starts this season going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA. Gallen will be making his third big league start. The Nationals, though, are familar with him having just faced him this past Wednesday at Miami. The Marlins lost that game, 7-5, with Gallen yielding three earned runs in five innings. Corbin was masterful in that victory allowing one run in seven innings. He struck out nine and gave up just three hits and one walk.
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06-30-19 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
There is a Dodgers starter who is capable of pitching well at Coors Field. That starter is Kenta Maeda and he's pitching today. Lifetime against the Rockies, Maeda is 6-3 with a 2.30 ERA. Maeda is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA at Coors Field. Colorado starter Chi Chi Gonzalez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. This is only his second big league appearance since 2016. Gonzalez gave up three runs on six hits and four walks in five innings against the Giants on the road this past Thursday. Gonzalez still has a ways to go to get rid of his considerable rust. He goes from a strong pitcher's park in San Francisco to making his second big league start in three years at Coors against one of the best and deepest offenses in baseball. So I see this as a kill spot for the Dodgers, who have lost two in a row to Colorado. If you discount yesterday's 5-3 loss to the Rockies, the Dodgers are averaging 10 runs and nearly three homers a game during their previous five games at Coors.
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06-28-19 | Montreal +13 v. Hamilton | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
Montreal is not good. But the Alouettes have a tremendous knack for covering point spreads. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games and have covered eight of their past nine road matchups. Hamilton is in a letdown spot after destroying rival Toronto, 64-14, on the road last Saturday. Now the Tiger-Cats are home against winless Montreal on a short week. The teams meet again next Thursday at Montreal so the Tiger-Cats won't be anxious to show too much, nor run up a score. Vernon Adams Jr. is an excellent scrambling quarterback. He can keep the Alouettes in the game. Montreal is the fourth-best rushing team in the CFL.The Alouettes will look to control clock so, yes, I can see them covering another inflated spread.
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06-27-19 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg -4.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a step up in class for Edmonton, which has opened the season 2-0 with home victories against Montreal and BC. The oddsmaker realizes that. But the line still is too short especially considering the Blue Bombers had a bye last week and this is their home opener while the Eskimos play their first road game. The Blue Bombers opened with a 33-23 road win against BC before enjoying their early bye last week. That pushed their ATS mark to 7-2 in their last nine games going back to last season. Edmonton's rebuilt defense is going to face a far more serious challenge on the road against Winnipeg, which could have the best running back in the CFL in Andrew Harris. The Eskimos didn't see a back nearly that good when it met its first two opponents. Edmonton has injuries on defense that will be tougher to mask against this multi-dimensional opponent.
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06-27-19 | Pirates v. Astros -1.5 | 10-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
I see a kill spot for the Astros here after they were hammered, 14-2, by the Pirates at home on Wednesday. The Astros have won 28 of their 40 home games this season, the best mark in the American League. The Astros' lineup has gotten even more dangerous with the recent returns of Jose Altuve and George Springer. Houston draws Joe Musgrove. The Astros know Musgrove, a former teammate. Pittsburgh is 3-10 in Musgrove's last 13 road starts. Musgrove has a 6.57 ERA in day action. Brad Peacock is an excellent pitcher, who is behind the radar being on the same pitching staff with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Peacock has struck out 87 in 82 innings and carries a 1.10 WHIP. Houston is 22-10 in Peacock's last 32 starts.
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06-25-19 | Pirates v. Astros -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
The Astros are ready to roll again after going an embarrassing 1-6 on their just concluded road trip with their last four games coming against the Yankees. Now Houston drops way down in class. The Astros' last four home victories have been by an average of six runs. They are an American League-best 27-11 at home. Trevor Williams has been struggling for the Pirates with a 5.86 ERA in his last five starts. He was just beat up for seven runs on nine hits in five innings against the Tigers six days ago. Gerrit Cole is having a magnificent season leading the majors in strikeouts with 148 while walking just 25. He has a career-best 1.02 WHIP. Cole is going to be extra pumped for this matchup. It's the first time he is facing the Pirates after playing his first five years with them.
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06-22-19 | Hamilton -3.5 v. Toronto | 64-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Both teams have some good skill position players. However, Toronto doesn't have the defense to stay with Hamilton. The Argos had a terrible defense last year and they are in rebuilt mode this season. There are going to be growing pains especially this early in the season. Jeremiah Masoli will be able to exploit Toronto's retooled defense. Hamilton has dominated this series especially when playing in Toronto where the Tiger-Cats have covered eight of the last 10 times.
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06-22-19 | Twins -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Danny Duffy sits unclaimed in the free agent pool in my 12-team American League Rotisserie league. A couple of owners, myself included, picked him up only to discard him after a brief trial period. The unamimous conclusion is Duffy isn't effective anymore. He wasn't good last season with a 4.88 ERA and he's not good this year with a 4.64 ERA. Duffy is going through another bad stretch with a 7.32 ERA in his last four starts. Now Duffy draws the top offense in baseball. The Royals are 5-13 in Duffy's last 18 starts. Kansas City is 1-7 the past eight times Duffy has faced an above .500 team at home. Kansas City is 15-24 at home. Minnesota is 25-13 on the road. It's a big reason why the Twins have the best record in the majors. The Twins' bullpen advantage was on full display when they came from behind to beat the Royals Friday night. Now Minnesota has a monster starting pitching edge with Jose Berrios taking on Duffy. Berrios is an elite level starter, who unlike Duffy, is in great current form with a 1.31 ERA in three starts this month. Minnesota is 12-4 in Berrios' last 16 starts, including winning his past five road starts. It shouldn't be too much to ask the Twins, who will get nine innings of at bats, to defeat the Royals by more than one run so we avoid laying such heavy juice.
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06-20-19 | Twins -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
There are four American League teams who are terrible this season - Orioles, Royals, Tigers and Blue Jays. They are teams you would like to fade every day if you could, but the oddsmaker makes that hard to do by assigning heavy juice to their opponent. Baseball being baseball it's not responsible money management to lay huge prices. The trick to getting around this is the run line where you are confident of beating these bad teams by more than one run. I see that here with the visiting Twins in a pitching matchup of Jake Odorizzi versus Glenn Sparkman. Odorizzi is have a magical season with a 10-game win streak and 2.24 ERA. Minnesota is 14-3 in his last 17 starts. Odorizzi is backed by the best offense in the majors. Minnesota ranks No. 1 in runs and homers. The Royals are at their worse going against upper echelon teams. Minnesota has the best record in the American League at 48-24 for a .658 winning percentage. The Royals have lost 50 of the last 62 times when going against a foe with a win percentage above .600. Sparkman isn't very good and he's been downright terrible against the Twins with an 0-3 record and 6.75 ERA in his career against them. The Twins just got to see Sparkman this past Satureday and scored five runs off him in five innings. Kansas City ranks 25th in runs and 26th in homers. The Royals also could be without arguably their second-best player, shortstop Adalberto Mondesi. He leads the majors by a wide margin in steals with 27. Thursday Free Play A's plus $1.02 hosting Rays Tampa Bay is a good road team. They Rays also have a solid starter going in Charle Morton. So why go against them? Three reasons: Price, spot and Frankie Montas. The Rays find themselves in a tough situation. They just were swept in New York by the Yankees, a huge letdown for them considering that was a showdown for the AL East Division lead. Tampa Bay was outscored 21-4 by the Yankees in the three-game series. The Rays have lost seven of their last nine games and have to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast. The last time the Rays were on West Coast time was early April. AL East teams often struggle when playing the A's in Oakland. They are used to playing in hitter's parks. The A's, who are 22-17 at home, play in a pitcher's park that has strange dimensions. It is not a popular venue for opposing teams. I like the righthanded Morton. I just like Montas better. Montas has become an All-Star this season giving up three or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 starts. His swinging strike rate has gone from 8.6 percent last year to 11 percent. The Rays have the added disadvantage of never having faced him. Morton is coming off a subpar start where he allowed four earned runs and two homers in six innings against the Angels this past Saturday. Oakland has won six of its last seven games against a righy starter.
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06-18-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
Look for the Dodgers to rebound in big fashion after losing, 3-2, at home to the Giants on Monday. LA is going with lefty Clayton Kershaw, who is 22-11 with a 1.72 ERA against San Francisco. That 1.72 ERA consists of 330 1/3 innings, too. San Francisco is 8-13 versus southpaw starters. The Giants rank among the bottom-three in runs, batting average and homers. They aren't likely to have Pablo Sandoval, who has the Giants' highest batting average and is tied for the team lead in homers. He suffered a hand injury last night. The Giants sneaked past the Dodgers on Monday behind rookie Tyler Beede. Now the Giants are trying to do it again with another rookie, Shaun Anderson. The Dodgers rank 12th in runs and have smacked the seventh-most homers in the majors. Of the Giants' last 11 losses, 10 have been by more than one run.
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06-16-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 12-0 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Toronto has much to celebrate with the Raptors. Toronto has nothing to celebrate, though, with the Blue Jays, losers of 17 of their last 22 games. The Astros have blasted the overmatched Blue Jays, 22-4, in the first two games of this series. I'm expecting the Astros to manhandle Toronto once again so have no qualms about laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to reduce the heavy juice. Houston is averaging 8.7 runs in its last four games. Each of Toronto's last 10 defeats have been by more than one run. The pitching matchup is Trent Thornton, who has a 4.78 ERA, facing Brad Peacock, who is 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA in his last seven starts with 45 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings during this span. The Astros are 22-8 in Peacock's last 30 starts, including 6-1 this season during his home starts.
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06-15-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
It doesn't matter for Houston that Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa are all out. The Astros have tremendous offensive depth and young talent such as highly-touted Yordan Alvarez. He's slugged three homers in his first four games with the Astros. The Astros are averaging 9.3 runs in their last three games. They should have no problem teeing off on struggling Clayton Richard, who has a 7.04 ERA and probably isn't likely to remain in Toronto's starting rotation much longer. Richard has failed to reach the sixth inning in any of his starts either. So the Astros will get shots at Toronto's weak bullpen, which is minus injured closer Ken Giles. Good-looking lefty Framber Valdez gets the start for Houston. He has a 2.41 home ERA in eight appearances and is backed by an eilte bullpen. All of Houston's top relief arms are rested, too, following Friday's 15-2 blowout victory. The Blue Jays rank 13th out of 15 American League teams in batting average against lefthanders.
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06-15-19 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -1.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks couldn't do much against Max Scherzer on Friday and I don't see them doing anything against Stephen Strasburg, who like Scherzer is having a big season. The Nationals have shown a lot of life lately winning 13 of their last 19 games. All of their last nine victories have been by more than one run making it worth backing them on the run line to reduce the heavy juice. The Diamondbacks have lost six of their last seven games to the Nationals. They are not in a good spot here having to go with Taylor Clarke, who probably should be removed from their starting rotation. Clarke has a 9.58 ERA in his last three starts. He also has a 5.66 road ERA.
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06-15-19 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Charlie Morton always has been tough in day games. This year is no exception as Morton is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in day action. Morton is having a superb season, too, winning 11 straight decisions. He is unscored upon in 14 innings this month with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk June ratio. The Angels are going with rookie lefty Jose Suarez, who has a 4.35 ERA and will be making just his third big league start. Suarez had a 3.91 ERA in five games, including four starts, with Salt Lake in Triple A before coming up to the Angels. The Rays are 15-9 against lefty starters and have the fourth-highest batting average in the American League against southpaws. It's tough for the visitor to play in quirky Tropicana Field. The Angels have lost in five of their last six visits. This early start is a disadvantage, too, for the West Coast team.
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06-14-19 | Montreal +8 v. Edmonton | 25-32 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
The spread is where it is in part because Montreal fired its coach, Mike Sherman, right before the season. Sherman was a bad hire, though. The only time the guy could win was when he had Brett Favre in Green Bay. Interim coach Khari Jones is a much better fit for the Alouettes. Jones knows the CFL. Sherman didn't. The Alouettes have underrated talent and a knack for covering numbers. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Edmonton endured a difficult off-season losing a number of key players, including star quarterback Mike Reilly. I don't see the Eskimos being an early-season powerhouse where they can cover this high of a spread. The Eskimos do not have a good June history either. They are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 June games.
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06-14-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | 2-15 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
The Astros are 25-10 at home, but coming off a rare defeat at Minute Maid Park. That occurred to the Brewers in extra innings on Wednesday. The Astros were idle on Thursday. I'm expecting a strong focused effort from them. They have the right pitching matchup to blow out the Blue Jays. Toronto is going with Aaron Sanchez, who has yielded nine earned during his last two starts spanning 12 innings. Sanchez gives up too many walks. Only three pitchers give up more bases on balls than Sanchez. The Blue Jays are 2-7 in their last nine road games. Toronto buried the Orioles, 12-3, at Balitmore on Thursday. However, the Blue Jays are 2-9 following a victory. Gerrit Cole is one of the top pitchers in the American League. He's leading the majors in strikeouts. The Astros are 18-5 in Cole's last 23 home starts. Cole is holding opponents to a .196 batting average at home. Unlke Sanchez, Cole is in excellent current form with a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts.
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06-10-19 | A's v. Rays -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
The A's have lost their last nine games when taking on an American League East opponent. Don't expect them to end that streak in this matchup. The spot and pitching matchup is so much against them that I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to get a much better price on Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton is 7-0 with a 2.30 ERA. He has established himself as one of the better pitchers in the American League. Going for Oakland is Tanner Anderson. He pitched six games in relief for the Pirates last season and had a 6.35 ERA. This will be his big league starting debut. Anderson had a 6.26 ERA in 11 games in Triple A this season. The A's are in a desperate pitching spot after playing a doubleheader on Saturday and then playing again on Sunday not arriving in Tampa Bay until late. Tampa Bay is averaging 6.1 runs in its last seven games discounting a 5-1 loss to Boston. |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Perhaps the Raptors do win the NBA Finals. But I don't see the Warriors going down a second straight time at home especially with Klay Thompson expected to play. Call it a rhythm or zig-zag play, but the Warriors are due to shoot better in this series. The Raptors are fat and happy after upsetting the Warriors, 123-109, in Game 3 on Wednesday and knowing Kevin Durant remains out. Before pouring dirt over the Warriors, let's remember just two games ago in Game 2 at Toronto. The Warriors held the Raptors to 37.2 percent shooting from the floor and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. The result was a 109-104 Golden State victory. I see this Game 4 matchup resembling that Game 2. The Warriors have the big-game NBA Finals-pedigree, a powerful situational edge being home down 2-1 and the quality defense to clamp down on the Raptors, who have been getting far better shooting games from a number of players than what was realistically expected from them.
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06-01-19 | Tigers v. Braves -1.5 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
I like the Braves to bounce back in a big way against the Tigers after an 8-2 loss on Friday. So does the oddsmaker. Hence the big price. So the alternative is to back the Braves on the run line in order to greatly reduce the vigorish. Detroit is 4-17 in Daniel Norris' last 21 starts, including 1-6 in his last seven outings. The Braves are going with the best rookie pitcher in baseball, Mike Soroka. He has a 1.07 ERA, not allowing more than one earned run in eight appearances. Atlanta is 6-0 in Soroka's starts versus sub .500 opponents. The Tigers rank 29th in runs and homers. They are going to be without Miguel Cabrera, too. He's out with a swollen knee.
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1 v. Raptors | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 56 m | Show |
I give Toronto tremendous credit for overcoming Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals. I also believe the Raptors have the best player on the court in Kawhi Leonard. But Toronto is not in Golden State's class. The Warriors are a level higher. Disagree? Look at the series price. That should tell you what the oddsmaker believes. So I am not buying the Raptors opening a favorite in Game 1 of this championship series. The Warriors know they must win at least one road game to take this series. They will be fully prepared to give a strong effort in this opener. They have had extra prep time from sweeping the Trail Blazers, which helps Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson get healthy. The Raptors lack the Warriors' Championship Series experience having never been to this stage before. You wonder if they still might be on Cloud 9 after taking out the Bucks. The Warriors are 7-3 ATS when playing on three days rest or more. The Raptors are 1-8 ATS in that situation. Golden State always gets off to a good start in the playoffs winning 18 of 19 Game 1's under Steve Kerr, including going 3-0 this season beating the Clippers, Rockets and Trail Blazers by a combined 43 points in its series openers. Toronto, by contrast, lost Game 1 to the Magic and Bucks. There has been some sentiment towards Toronto because the Warriors weren't that sharp despite sweeping the Trail Blazers and Kevin Durant won't be in action. The Warriors have adjusted to Duran't absence, though. Curry and Thompson are shooting more and their bench play has picked up. Golden State's defense has been solid, too. The loss of Durant isn't enough to go against the Warrors at this price point.
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05-26-19 | Orioles v. Rockies -1.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
The Orioles have the worst record in the majors and David Hess is probably their worst starting pitcher. The Orioles are 3-14 in their last 17 games, 1-7 during their past eight. They have lost by more than one run during 11 of their last 12 defeats. Hess is 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA. Baltimore is 3-14 during his last 17 road starts. The Rockies are averaging 6.5 runs in their last six games. Hess is backed up by one of the three worst bullpens in the majors. Colorado is starting German Marquez, who is 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA in his last three starts. Marquez has a 2.48 ERA in day games. The Rockies are 9-2 in his last 11 home starts when going against an opponent with a losing record.
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
Look, you either believe in the Bucks, or you don't. I do - especially when they are home like here. Milwaukee had the best regular season mark both SU (straight-up) and ATS (against the spread). It has been the same in the playoffs where the Bucks have won and covered 10 of 13 times. The Bucks didn't play up to their capability in Game 3 yet it took two overtimes for the Raptors to put them away at home. I thought the Bucks would play much better in Game 4. The Raptors, to their credit, stepped up and protected their home floor with an impressive 120-102 win. Nick Nurse made some key defensive adjustments and Toronto's role players came through. Now it's the Bucks' turn. Perhaps it's just being glib to say that, but these are the facts: The Bucks are 21-5 ATS following a loss. They have covered 18 of the last 24 times after not covering in their previous game. They also haven't lost three games in a row all season! The Bucks are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. They also ranked first in offensive rebounding. They are deeper than Toronto, better on the boards and stronger defensively finishing No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. In my view, there are only three players who can trump the greatness of Kawhi Leonard. That being LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has the advantage of being at home and healthier than Leonard, who has been hindered by a left leg injury. This is a big spread. I understand that. I hate having to lay more than six, which is a key number in the NBA. But so far the spread has not factored in any of the Bucks' 13 playoff games. The winner of the game covered the spread every time. There's the possibility, too, of the Raptors waving the white flag if they were to fall too far behind by resting Leonard knowing how important he'll be for Games 6 and 7.
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05-21-19 | Sharks v. Blues -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 181 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
Injuries and the luck factor turning against them leave the Sharks dead in the water for this Game 6 road matchup against the Blues. I don't see San Jose staying alive by beating St. Louis here. Even if the Sharks are hanging in trailing by just one goal there is the strong possibility of an empty net goal taking place since San Jose is in must-win mode down 3-2 in the series. The Blues' superior defense and goaltending with star rookie Jordan Binnington has come alive. The Blues have taken control of the series winning the past two games holding the Sharks to just one goal during this span. The Sharks are 3-7 in their past 10 road contests. San Jose has been the luckiest team in the playoffs. But that luck has run out. The Blues buried the Sharks, 5-0, at San Jose in Game 5. The Sharks have gotten hit hard by injuries with key players captain Joe Pavelski, two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson and Tomas Hertl, their second-leading goal scorer next to Pavelski, all missing significant time in Sunday's Game 5 defeat. Jaden Schwartz has been a monster for the Blues scoring 12 goals during the postseason. Vladimir Tarasenko is stepping up now, too, producing at least one point in five consecutive games.
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05-19-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 112-118 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
We saw it in Game 3 with the Warriors beating the Trail Blazers by 11 points on Saturday. We're likely to see it here, too, in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The superior team is an underdog on the road yet easily wins straight-up. Maybe the Raptors can break that mold. I doubt it, though. Milwaukee was the best point spread team during the regular season. Milwaukee is the best ATS team in the postseason, too, going 9-1 SU and ATS. The Bucks have outscored the Raptors by 35 points during the last five quarters. What's become clear is the Raptors aren't good enough, nor deep enough, to beat the Bucks. Toronto hasn't solved Milwaukee's offense, nor its defense, averaging 101.5 points in the series, which is 13 points below its season average. The Bucks have too many weapons to go with with Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Raptors to keep up. Kawhi Leonard doesn't have the bench help, nor the veteran step-up that the Bucks have been providing for Antetokounmpo. |
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05-19-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks' last three victories have been by an average of eight runs. I like Arizona to beat the Giants, enough to lay the run line to get a plus price instead of risk laying heavy juice. Drew Pomeranz is coming off the injured list to start for the Giants. Pomeranz has been highly inconsistent and isn't likely to go deep into the game, which would put the Giants' vulnerable middle relievers into action. Lefty Robbie Ray is in great form for the Diamondbacks with a 3-0 mark and 1.98 ERA in his past five starts. His ERA is 1.10 during his last three starts. Arizona is 5-2 versus the Giants in Ray's past seven starts against San Francisco. The Giants are 5-9 versus lefty starters this season. Word is the Giants will be resting Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. Brandon Crawford may also sit out. San Francisco has won just 33 percent of its past 43 road games. |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
The Bucks not only finished with the best record in the NBA during the regular season, but also the best point spread mark covering 60 percent of their games. Milwaukee has been even better in the playoffs winning and covering nine of 10 games. The Bucks even covered a 6.5-point spread in Game 1 against Toronto despite not playing well until the very end. The Bucks were a bit rusty and Giannis Antetokounmpo is capable of much better. Look for the Bucks and superstar Antetokounmpo to step up their game here. If that's the case, Milwaukee should win by double-digits for the eighth time in 11 postseason games. Milwaukee is a dominant home team, is much deeper than Toronto and Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton are strong enough defenders to bother Kawhi Leonard. The Bucks aren't totally dependent on Antetokounmpo like the Raptors are on their superstar, Leonard. The Raptors had to go the full seven game limit with the 76ers in the Eastern Conference semifinals. That took a toll on Leonard, who was babied during the regular season often sitting out games for rest purposes. Now Leonard is dealing with tough defenders and a fatigue factor. Kyle Lowery played extremely well in Game 1 of this series. But Lowery hasn't looked very good up until this point. I doubt he keeps that up. The Raptors have grown too accustomed to watching and waiting on Leonard to close out games. He's not going to be able to do that against this caliber of elite opponent. Leonard needs help and so far key Raptors aren't providing that. Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam and Danny Green aren't hitting clutch shots. The Bucks have covered five of the last six matchups against the Raptors. They are the superior team with upside considering their Game 1 performance. Toronto had their chance in Game 1 and blew it. Look for the Bucks to win this game much more handily. |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
I want the Bucks going for me here in this Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Toronto has been up and down and fortunate to survive a Game 7 against the 76ers, Milwaukee has been dominant in the postseason just like in the regular season. The Bucks have won and covered eight of nine playoff games with seven of the eight victories occurring by double-digits. Milwaukee's average winning margin is 15.3 points. The Bucks don't want a repeat of their last series when they were ambushed at home by the Celtics in Game 1. Milwaukee hasn't lost since with Antetokounmpo averaging 30 points during the last four games. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard are a trade-off. Both rank among the top five players in the NBA. Milwaukee, though, is getting better backcourt play and is the deeper team. The Bucks have had the proper response for everything the Pistons and Celtics threw at them. It's a huge added bonus for the Bucks that underrated guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned after being out seven weeks with a foot injury. He may be the Bucks' best defender. The Bucks defeated the Raptors in three of four regular season meetings and have covered four of the past five in the series.
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05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors -7.5 | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
Much is being made of Kevin Durant being out with a strained calf. But the Trail Blazers have their own injuries to deal with as Enes Kanter has a separated shoulder and Rodney Hood a hyperextended knee. Both are likely to play, but at less than 100 percent. Keep in mind, too, the Trail Blazers remain without their best big man, Jusuf Nurkic. Golden State has proven it can step up without Durant. Just ask the Rockets, who happen to be at least a tier higher than the Trail Blazers. Not only do the Warriors have home-court here, but also a favorable spot. Golden State hasn't played since Friday when it upset the Rockets on the road to end that series. Steve Kerr and his brain trust have had ample time to study the Trail Blazers and how best to utilize their players knowing Durant won't be on the court. The Trail Blazers are off a brutal seven-game series against the Nuggets that didn't conclude until this past Sunday with Portland scoring an upset road victory. The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS the past six times following a victory. They can't be blamed for coming up flat here with such little time to savor their huge series win against Denver.
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05-12-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Toronto doesn't deserve to be trusted in clutch playoff games given its track record. The Raptors also have been terrible in this role going 9-18 ATS the past 27 times when favored by six points or fewer. Kawhi Leonard is the best player on the court. But Joel Embiid is close behind. Embiid had a huge Game 6 posting a plus-minus ratio of plus 40. Embiid has helped the 76ers outrebound the Raptors by 47 rebounds during the series, an average of 7.8 per game. Health is the key for Embiid. He was healthy in Game 6, which was played on Thursday. So he's had a full two days to rest. I prefer Ben Simmons over Kyle Lowery at point guard and Jimmy Butler is there to lend his considerable skill and veteran leadership to the 76ers.
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05-09-19 | Rangers +1.5 v. Astros | 2-4 | Loss | -132 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
The Rangers have hung in so far this season posting a 17-17 record. They have a solid starting pitching edge in this matchup with Mike Minor going against Wade Miley. Minor has a 2.40 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are batting .190 against him. Minor has been hot since the middle of last season posting a 2.97 ERA following the All-Star Game holding foes to a .194 batting average. Minor faced the Astros early last month and dominated them winning, 4-0, at home. Minor allowed just five hits in seven innings. Miley is a journeyman type who has pitched decent this season, but is not the caliber of Minor. Miley has a bad history against the Rangers with a 2-5 career-mark and 5.86 ERA in nine starts.
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05-08-19 | Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
Some believed the Rockets were better than the Warriors last season when the teams met in the Western Conference Finals. But then Chris Paul got hurt and had to miss Games 6 and 7. The Warriors took advantage to win those games and the series. Paul is healthy this time around. The Rockets are improved and the Warriors have gotten worse. If there is any separation between the two teams now it is minimal at best, which is proven by no team winning by more than six points during the first four games of the series. These games have all been close down to the wire affairs. Yes, the Warriors are home now. But Houston has momentum and confidence having won two in a row. The Warriors are showing more fatigue. Their bench is struggling with just a combined 18 points during the past two games. Stephen Curry isn't 100 percent. Golden State also doesn't have a good point spread track record at Oracle Arena just 11-23-1 ATS (32 percent) the past 35 times there.
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04-30-19 | Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
The Warriors escaped the Rockets last season in the Western Conference finals winning in seven games. Chris Paul didn't play in Games 6 and 7 last season because of injury. The Rockets lost both of those games. Paul is healthy now, the Rockets are better than they were at this time a year ago and the Warroirs are worse. The Rockets nearly beat Golden State in Game 1, but lost 104-100 because of official's calls that didn't go their way, making less than 30 percent of their 3-point shots and James Harden having a terrible shooting game going just 9-for-28 from the floor. I expect Harden to shoot much better. I also expect more calls to go in Houston's favor after the NBA has come under scrutiny for the unfair officiating against the Rockets when Houston faced the Warriors last year and in Game 1. P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela combined to score only four points on 1-for-6 shooting from the floor in Sunday's game. They should do much better especially Capela. The Rockets could be the most underrated defensive team in the NBA. They finished No. 2 in defensive efficiency during the final 15 games of the regular season. They held the Warriors 13 points below their season average while forcing 20 turnovers and coming up with 14 steals. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are less than 100 percent because of ankle injuries. DeMarcus Cousins is out. The Warriors are one of the worst point spread home teams going 10-23-1 (30.3 percent) in their last 34 games at Oracle Arena, including failing to cover 12 of the last 18 times. Houston has covered four of the past five times on the road against Golden State. |
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04-27-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 95-108 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
I'll go with the 76ers' superior starting lineup against the Raptors' deeper bench. Toronto's depth may factor later on in this series, but for now both teams are fresh and should have their full energy. Philly has too many weapons for the Raptors. It's going to take Toronto coach Nick Nurse a lot longer to figure out the 76ers than it did the Magic, the weakest of any of the playoff teams. The Raptors don't have enough weapons to contain Joe Embiid, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, JJ Redick and Ben Simmons, who I'll take over Kyle Lowery in the pivotal point guard matchup. The Raptors have yet to prove they have exorcized their playoff demons. They lost at home in Game 1 to the Magic and are 0-8 ATS the past eight times when playing after three or more days rest. The 76ers are ready to take that next playoff step. They are confident coming off four straight wins and covers against the Nets, who are a better team than the Magic.
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -2.5 | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Denver has made key necessary defensive adjustments to win the last two games and take a 3-2 series lead. Now it's up to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs to counter. I see the Spurs doing that especially playing at home. Popovich has long been the best coach in the NBA. The Nuggets have a terrible track record when playing at San Antonio having lost 14 of the past 15 times there, are 3-7 ATS following a pointspread cover and 4-10 ATS when playing on one day's rest. Denver hasn't won a playoff series since 2009. LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan are due to step for the Spurs.
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04-24-19 | Mariners +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Padres rookie Chris Paddack is off to a nice start. But he is way overpriced here, enough so where I can take the Mariners plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line without having to lay monster juice. Seattle has won nine of its last 11 road games and has the much superior offense. The Mariners entered their series against the Padres ranked No. 1 in runs scored at 6.4 per game. They have scored 31 runs during their last five games. Seattle has excellent hitting depth with eight players producing at least 14 RBI's. Paddack went six innings, a career-high, in his last outing. He has thrown just 20 innings in his big league career yet is rated a huge favorite by the linesmaker here against Felix Hernandez. Sure "King Felix" is on the downside of a brilliant career, but he still knows how to pitch and he'll be helped throwing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park where he is 5-1 lifetime with a 1.63 ERA in eight starts. San Diego ranked just 27th in scoring entering the series. The Padres are 2-6 in their last eight games and 19-37 during their past 56 home games.
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04-23-19 | Nets +8.5 v. 76ers | 100-122 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Nets have proven spunky all season, almost always coming through with a hard effort. I don't see them going quietly through the night on the brink of playoff elimination here. This has been a bitter series. The Nets are down 3-1, but the series very well could be tied at 2-2. Brooklyn blew a 101-94 lead with 5:20 left in Game 4 before losing 104-101 on Saturday. Brooklyn has covered in seven of its past nine road games. The 76ers have a vast array of talent. But they have some immaturity and don't know how to win yet, which makes them vulnerable to overconfidence in this matchup. The Nets have excellent backcourt scoring depth and I like that their coach, Kenny Gattison, has shortened the rotation.
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04-22-19 | Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz | 91-107 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
It was a given the Jazz were going to produce their best effort in Game 3 at home after losing the first two games to the Rockets on the road by an average of 26 points. Utah did just that. The Jazz held the great James Harden to 3-of-20 shooting from the floor and the Rockets to 38.4 percent from the field. Yet the Rockets still won and covered beating the favored Jazz by three points. The oddsmaker is done making the Jazz a favorite again. The demoralized Jazz aren't going to be the first team in NBA playoff history to come back from a 3-0 deficit and win a series. Harden isn't going to have a shooting game like that again. The Rockets want to end this series fast to keep pace with the Warriors. The Jazz lack the confidence and morale to come back here to win a game. Utah needs Donovan Mitchell to shoot well to hang with Houston and that hasn't been happening. Mitchell has made just 32.8 percent of his shots from the floor.
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04-21-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5.5 | 107-85 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
I like the Magic in an underdog role especially going against foes with a winning record. Orlando is 16-5-1 ATS the past 22 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. I see the Magic giving it their best shot not wanting to go into Toronto down 3-1. The Magic lost 98-93 to the Raptors this past Friday. That was their first home playoff game in seven years. The Magic should be less tight now. Orlando needs Nikola Vucevic to step up. He got going in Game 3 after being kept in check the first two games of the series. Toronto is 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times against Orlando.
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04-20-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 117-103 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
The Nuggets haven't won in San Antonio in more than seven years, losing 14 straight times to the Spurs on the road. I don't see that changing here in Game 4 of their playoff series. The Spurs should be up 3-0 instead of 2-1, but blew a 19-point lead midway through the third quarter in Game 2. They are the clear better team and they have a strong home-court history. Second-year guard Derrick White has stepped up big-time for San Antonio giving the Spurs three major weapons along with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs have those players going for them along with a huge gap in playoff experience. While the Nuggets are involved in their first postseason experience since 2013, the Spurs are in the playoffs for the 22nd straight season.
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04-19-19 | Celtics v. Pacers -3 | 104-96 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
The good news for Indiana is its No. 1 ranked defense has held Boston to an average of 91.5 points during the first two games of this series. The bad news is the Pacers are down 0-2 in the series because their shooting has been way off. The Pacers, though, are far from outclassed. They led the Celtics by seven points at halftime in Game 1. They were leading Boston with less than a minute left in Game 2 before somehow failing to cover a 7 1/2-point underdog spread in a 99-91 loss. Sure Indiana misses its top scorer, Victor Oladipo. But the Pacers are due to shoot much better than 38.8 pecent from the floor. Boston ranks eighth defensively. However, the Pacers have failed to connect on shots in which they had a good look at the basket. Myles Turner, Darren Collison and Thaddeus Young should step up. The Pacers have a strong history of dramatically playing much better at home. The Celtics won just one of their eight road playoff games last season.
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04-19-19 | Raptors -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
Nice job by the Magic in reaching the playoffs this season and upsetting the Raptors in Game 1. The clock struck midnight, though, for the Magic in Game 2 when they were buried, 111-82, by Toronto this past Tuesday. The Raptors are vastly superior. They could be among the four best teams in the NBA. The Magic can't hang against this type of focused opponent especially when their best player, Nikola Vucevic, can't produce. Vucevic has been held to an average of 8.5 points a game making just six-of-21 shots from the field.
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04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
I don't see the Nuggets ending a 13-game losing streak at San Antonio and upsetting the Spurs. The Spurs have far more playoff experience. They have dominated the Nuggets for 6 1/2 of the eight quarters during the first two playoff games of this series, both of which were in Denver. The prideful Spurs should have gone 2-0 against the Nuggets, but blew Game 2 in the series after leading by 19 points nearly midway through the third quarter. Denver is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times following a victory.
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04-14-19 | Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
If you can't stop Russell Westbrook and Paul George you can't beat the Thunder. Portland couldn't stop either one. Westbrook averaged 29.5 points, 10 rebounds and 8.8 assists against the Trail Blazers this season while George averaged 38 points and 10.5 rebounds. The result was Oklahoma City going 4-0 versus Portland with an average victory margin of seven points. Now the Trail Blazers are without their best big man, injured Jusuf Nurkic, and their second-leading scorer, CJ McCollum, hasn't looked good since coming back late in the season after missing 10 games with a knee injury.
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04-12-19 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
Tampa Bay was the best team in hockey this season - and it wasn't even close. Perhaps things came too easy for the Lightning in their playoff opener against the Blue Jackets. Columbus has been hot, but there was no excuse except overconfidence for the Lightning blowing a 3-0 lead at home to the Blue Jackets in a 4-3 loss on Wednesday. It was a hard loss for the Lightning. It's a defeat the Lightning should learn from. I expect them to bring a great deal of intensity to this Game 2 matchup. I can't lay this big of juice especially in a Stanley Cup game. But I strongly believe Tampa Bay will win this game by multiple goals so I'm going with the Lightning on the puck line laying 1 1/2 goals and getting a plus price back. Tampa Bay has won by multiple goals in nine of its last 13 victories. The Lightning defense is stronger, too, with the return of Victor Hedman, who missed the last four games of the regular season.
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04-10-19 | Kings +4.5 v. Blazers | 131-136 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
The Kings aren't making the playoffs. But a victory here gives them 40 wins. That's a big deal for Sacramento. Word is the Kings are going to play their regular rotation and go hard here. Portland, on the other hand, will be sitting out its two best players as All-Star guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are not expected to play. The Trail Blazers have the playoffs on their mind not this game.
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04-09-19 | Raptors v. Wolves +7 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
This is the Timberwolves' final home game of the season. So a strong effort should be forthcoming from them. Minnesota has been good at home going 25-15 SU, 22-18 ATS at Target Center. Toronto has a losing road point spread mark. This game also means nothing to the Raptors since they are locked into the No. 2 playoff seed in the Eastern Conference. It's the Raptors' final regular season game so obviously they would like to avoid any injury, which could mean sitting out a star such as Kyle Lowery and Kawhi Leonard. The Timberwolves are down to third-string point guard Tyus Jones. He's coming off a career-high in assists, though, and is bolstered by talented scorers, Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Dario Saric Minnesota has covered the past four times against Toronto, too. |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech +1.5 v. Virginia | Top | 77-85 | Loss | -106 | 34 h 33 m | Show |
Texas Tech plus 1 1/2 vs. Virginia Great, great job by Chris Beard and Texas Tech reaching the NCAA Tournament title game. Virginia is here, too. The pressure is all on the Cavaliers - and they usually don't respond well to it. The Cavaliers were the first No. 1 seed in NCAA Tourney history to lose to a 16th seed last year. They trailed Gardner-Webb at halftime in their opening NCAA Tourney game this year. Virginia is darn lucky to even survive having nipped Oregon by four points, slipped past Purdue in overtime and received a couple of official's gifts in edging Auburn by one on Saturday winning in highly controversial fashion. Virginia is 2-7 ATS in its last nine NCAA Tournament games. Texas Tech is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games and 11-0 ATS the past 11 times going against a foe that has a winning record. The Cavaliers for the first time are going to face an opponent that can match them - if not exceed them - defensively. The Red Raiders held Michigan State to its lowest point total of the season, something I'm not sure Virginia could have done. |
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04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
Portland has short revenge for a 119-110 road loss to the Nuggets on Friday. That victory just about locked up the No. 2 seed in the West for the Nuggets. It gives the Nuggets enough cushion that they feel comfortable sitting out their three best players against the Trail Blazers. Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap are all going to miss this game putting the Nuggets at a huge disadvantage. Those three led the Nuggets to their victory against the Trail Blazers two days earlier scoring a combined 70 points. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times following a victory. Denver has been a mediocre road team all season with just a 20-19 away record. Portland is 30-9 at home and 12-3-1 ATS following a point spread loss. The Trail Blazers not only have short revenge motivation, but are going for playoff seeding still holding a chance at gaining the No. 3 seed. The Trail Blazers hold the No. 4 seed, one game ahead of the Jazz with Utah holding the tiebreaker. CJ McCollum is probable for the Trail Blazers. McCollum, the Trail Blazers' second-leading scorer, has missed the past 10 games with a knee injury. His presence should serve as added inspiration.
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04-06-19 | Blackhawks v. Predators -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 120 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
The Blackhawks didn't make the playoffs again, but they did finish the home portion of their disappointing season in style with a 6-1 victory against the Stars Friday night. Now, though, the Blackhawks travel to Nashville to face the Predators in the regular season finale with the Predators needing a victory to lock up the Central Division. I forsee a letdown and fatigue issues for the Blackhawks against the highly motivated Predators. This will be Chicago's fourth game in six days and second in two nights. The Blackhawks are 8-21 the past 29 times playing on zero rest and 3-8 when playing for the fourth time in six days. The Blackhawks also are fat and happy from their impressive victory against Dallas Friday. Nashville is 4-1 in its last five games. The Predators aren't going to screw around after pulling out a 3-2 win against the lowly Canucks at home on Thursday after falling behing 2-0. The Predators have defeated the Blackhawks four of the past five times at home and are 8-3 overall versus them during the last 11 meetings. |
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04-06-19 | Auburn v. Virginia -5 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 15 m | Show |
Auburn is really going to miss Chuma Okeke. He's the Tigers' leading rebounder, top defender and third-leading scorer. The Tigers have gotten away with his absence by their long-range hot shooting. That's not going to work against Virginia. Not only do the Cavaliers give up the fewest points per game in the nation, but they rank in the top five in defensive field goal percentage, 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Cavaliers haven't played up to their capabilities in the NCAA Tournament so far. I see them finally bringing their "A" game to the table here. The Cavaliers have covered 75 percent of their 20 non-home games this season. I trust them in this spot against this one-dimensional opponent missing its best player.
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04-05-19 | Knicks +17.5 v. Rockets | 96-120 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
The Rockets just got through with road games against the Kings on Tuesday and Clippers on Wednesday. Houston won those games by 25 and 32 points, respectively. The Rockets have another easy home opponent on Sunday taking on the Suns. So this is a major flat spot for the Rockets. It would not shock in the least if they sat out starters, or greately reduced their minutes for this matchup. |
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04-04-19 | Warriors v. Lakers +13.5 | 108-90 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 27 m | Show | |
The Lakers have been playing better lately with no pressure and with LeBron James sitting out. LA is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS in its last five games. But I'm not kidding myself. If the Warriors want to bury the Lakers they can. I just don't see Golden State being motivated to do that. The Warriors pretty much locked up top seed in the West with their 116-102 home win against the Nuggets on Tuesday. Golden State is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times following a victory and has an easy finish to the regular season concluding against four of five lottery-bound teams. The Warriors host the Cavaliers on Friday so they likely aren't going to tax any of their stars. Steve Kerr also doesn't want to pile on, or embarrass, Lakers coach Luke Walton. Walton is a former assistant coach for the Warriors and Kerr. His job with the Lakers is in jeopardy. The Lakers have covered 10 of their past 14 home games when meeting a foe with a winning percentage greater than .600.
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04-03-19 | Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The Astros have dominated the Rangers at Globe Life Park winning 14 of the past 16 times (88%) there. I see this as a kill spot for the Astros so I'm laying 1 1/2 runs playing the run line in order to cut back on the heavy juice. The pitching matchup is Gerrit Cole versus lefty Mike Minor. Cole is an elite pitcher, who is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in five career outings versus the Rangers with four of those starts occurring last season. Minor is a borderline starter, who was hammered in his first start this year giving up six runs on five hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs. The Astros are 39-23 against southpaws since last season, including 2-0 this year.
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04-02-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
I give the Nuggets tremendous credit for their outstanding season. But they are not in Golden State's class. When the Warriors are motivated they can bury any team, including the Nuggets. The Warriors have proven that in the last two meetings defeating the Nuggets by an average of 24 points the past two times. Denver is not a good road team as evidenced by covering only 42 percent of its road games this season. The Warriors will be focused. They are hitting their stride after destroying the Hornets, 137-90, this past Sunday at home. Denver enters the matchup trying to fix its offense. The Nuggets are averaging fewer than 95 points a game during their past five games. Golden State ranks No. 2 in scoring at 117.7 points a game. The Warriors rank No. 1 in field goal percentage. The Nuggets aren't as good as the Warriors and the timing for this showdown matchup isn't good either for Denver.
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04-02-19 | Wichita State v. Lipscomb +1 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
Lipscomb lacks the name recoginition of Wichita State. But the Bisons are the better team. The Bisons had 14 road victories, most in the nation. So they are well-tested away from home. They are 21-7-1 ATS during their past 29 nonconference games. The Bisons have plenty of experience from last season's NCAA Tournament team. They are 19-3 in their last 22 games and rank in the Top 10 in scoring, scoring margin and assists. I respect Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall. But the Shockers are going to have problems matching up against senior guard Garrison Mathews, who can light things up from the perimeter like he did against North Carolina State in the quarterfinals of this NIT tournament scoring 44 points. Matthews has averaged at least 20 points in each of the past three seasons.
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04-01-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -5.5 | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Situation, key injury and past history all point to the Pacers being the right side here. The Pacers are in stop-the-pain mode as they battle for playoff seeding having dropped seven of their last eight games. They suffered a tough two-point road loss to the Celtics on Friday, but then laid an egg at home against the Magic, losing 121-116 on Saturday. The Pacers surrendered 65 second-half points to the Magic. Indiana is the No. 1 ranked defense in the NBA. I see the Pacers playing with a great deal of intensity and tightening up their prideful defense. They draw the Pistons minus their most dangerous scorer, Blake Griffin, and coming off a highly-satisfying home comeback victory against the Trail Blazers on Saturday. Until that win against Portland, Detroit was 0-3 when they were minus Griffin. The Pistons are much worse on the road with a 14-24 record. The Pacers are much stronger at home with a 28-10 mark, 22-16 ATS. The Pacers have covered eight of the past 11 times at home when meeting an opponent with a sub .500 record on the road. The Pacers have dominated the Pistons, too, at home covering seven of the past eight times.
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03-30-19 | Texas Tech v. Gonzaga -4 | Top | 75-69 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
Sure Texas Tech has the capability of upsetting Gonzaga. The Red Raiders play tenacious defense and have a tremendous coach in Chris Beard. But Texas Tech would have to play its "A" game and Gonzaga would have to be off its game. I don't see that happening. Gonzaga has the deep tournament experience, a height advantage, leads the nation in scoring and has a very strong defense, too. Gonzaga ranks No. 1 in the country in scoring, field goal percentage, scoring margin and assist-to-turnover ratio. But the Bulldogs aren't just offense. They also ranked sixth in defensive efficiency, tied for sixth in defensive field goal percentage and were tied for 18th in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. The Bulldogs are deeper than Texas Tech, too, with a 10-man rotation. The Red Raiders are going to have problems up front dealing with Gonzaga's star big men, Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke. Add it all up and Gonzaga has enough edges to cover this number.
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03-30-19 | Cavs +10 v. Clippers | 108-132 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
The Clippers have to be feeling good about making the playoffs in the tough Western Conference. The Clippers still have incentive in a battle for playoff seeding. But this is a vulnerable spot for them. LA just returned home on Friday after a four-game, seven-day road swing that concluded on Thursday night against the Bucks. This is nearly a back-to-back situation for the Clippers due to this being an afternoon game. It's easy to forsee the Clippers being sluggish, not fully focused having been gone for a week and taking on a terrible opponent they just defeated eight days ago. The Clippers are likely to save some of their energy, too, since they host the Grizzlies on Sunday. The Cavaliers have taken advantage of often overinflated lines to go 8-4-1 ATS during their past 13 games. They have covered six of the last eight times against opponents with a winning record. Cleveland is sailing below-the-radar screen right now. Cleveland played the Clippers tough in their first matchup, losing 110-108. Kevin Love gives the Cavaliers a modicum of respectability and Collin Sexton could be the most underrated rookie in the league. Sexton has scored at least 20 points in 10 of his last 11 games. |
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03-29-19 | Hornets v. Lakers +2.5 | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
LeBron James. That's all you need to know as to why Lakers here. Even though the Lakers are out of the playoffs and enduring a highly disappointing season, James makes the Lakers dangerous at home against mediocre opponents. He didn't play in the Lakers' last game, a 115-100 road loss to the Jazz this past Wednesday. But James was in full force leading the Lakers to home victories against the Wizards and Kings in LA's two previous games. James should be fresh for this matchup since he was rested against the Jazz. That's extremely bad news for the Hornets. James has destroyed this team through the years. His lifetime record against the Hornets is 47-6. This includes a 128-100 Lakers victory over Charlotte on Dec. 15 when James had a triple-double. The Hornets certainly can not be trusted on the road where they have played much worse going 11-24. |
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03-29-19 | Virginia Tech v. Duke -7 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Duke had its scare surviving Central Florida, 77-76, in its last game. The Blue Devils pulled that one out down three points with 14.4 seconds left. Expect a much better performance here from the Blue Devils. Duke is big-game, tournament experienced while Virginia Tech hasn't made the Sweet 16 since 1962. The Hokies are 2-6 ATS the past eight times meeting a foe with a winning record. The Blue Devils were missing Zion Williamson when they fell, 77-72, to Virginia Tech on the road during the second-to-last week of the regular season. Duke won't be flat here. The Hokies aren't beating the Blue Devils a second time this season. |
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03-27-19 | Colorado v. Texas -5.5 | Top | 55-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Texas is home and the superior team. The Longhorns rank 30th, according to Kenpom ratings, while Colorado checks in at No. 63. The key question is how motivated are the Longhorns? They were tremendously disappointed not to make the NCAA Tournament. Colorado, on the other hand, has embraced the NIT with its young players having the attitude of using this tournament to gain valuable postseason experience for next year. Fewer than 1,600 fans showed up for Texas' first round home game in the NIT. Normally the Longhorns draw more than 10,000 fans for their home contests at the Erwin Center. The Longhorns doubled their attendance for their second NIT home game. Now with the Longhorns a win away from going to New York for the semifinals of the tournament, the fans and team are starting to get excited. If motivated, Texas should cover this number against Colorado. The Buffaloes are 5-8 in true road contests. Texas is 14-6 at home. Among the Longhorns' home wins were victories against Purdue, Oklahoma, Kansas, Baylor and Iowa State. All of those teams made the NCAA Tournament. The Big East was much better than the Pac-12 this season. Texas didn't make the Big Dance because it went 1-4 down the stretch, including losing to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. Star guard Kerwin Roach was suspended for all those games. Roach is back and off his best game in more than a month scoring 21 points with eight rebounds and six assists in the Longhorns' 78-76 overtime victory in their second-round NIT game against Xavier. That's a very encouraging sign for Texas. And just another reason why I like the Longhorns to cover this number. |
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03-26-19 | Rockets +4 v. Bucks | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
You would have to go back to Feb. 21 to find the last time the Rockets lost by more than four points. That's a span of 17 games. Houston is 14-2 in its last 16 games. The Rockets' only two losses during this 16-game span occurred to the Warriors by two points and on the road to the Grizzlies by one point in overtime. The Bucks are shorthanded in the backcourt and close to cruise control leading the Raptors by four games for best record in the Eastern Conference. The Rockets have revenge for a 116-109 home loss to the Bucks from Jan. 9 and are playing for playoff seeding in the Western Conference. So this game is more important to them. In a matchup of superstars, primarily James Harden vers. Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks are missing a key underrated cog with Malcolm Brogdon out with a foot injury. He would have been the best defender against Harden. The Bucks also lost guard Tony Snell to an ankle injury in their win against the Cavaliers this past Sunday. |
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03-25-19 | Red Wings v. Sharks -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -123 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
San Jose has dropped five in a row. Yet the Sharks are a monster favorite against the Red Wings. The oddsmaker is anticipating a kill spot here for the Sharks and I agree. San Jose has shown signs lately of coming out of its funk. The Sharks are the No. 3 scoring team in the NHL. They should be able to produce a lot of goals versus the Red Wings, losers of 13 of their last 16 games and ranking 29th defensively. I'm also expecting a strong defensive effort from the Sharks. Detroit ranks 26th in scoring. The Red Wings, who are in rebuild mode, are coming off a shocking road upset of the Golden Knights from Saturday night. They probably can't be faulted for partying in Las Vegas following that improbable win. The Red Wings have fared poorly playing in San Jose losing 13 of the last 18 times.
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03-25-19 | Suns +14.5 v. Jazz | 92-125 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
This isn't a kill spot for the Jazz. It's actually a flat spot for Utah. The Jazz haven't played at home in nine days. They've been on the road during their past four games and are coming off a 31-point road win against the Bulls from Saturday night. It's going to be easy for the Jazz to overlook the Suns, who have multiple injuries and haven't been competitive versus Utah this season. The Jazz just rolled past the Suns, 114-97, at Phoenix on March 13. The Jazz, however, are 2-4 ATS in their last six home games. The Suns have covered their past six road games and are 9-4 ATS during their last 13 overall games.
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03-25-19 | Longwood +15 v. DePaul | Top | 89-97 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
If you're going to lay this big of a number in a tournament, you better play at least decent defense. DePaul doesn't. The Blue Demons give up 75.5 points a game, which ranks 276th. Only once in their last 20 games have the Blue Demons won by a margin this big. DePaul is 11-26-3 (29.7 percent) following a victory. Reaching the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Invitational may not be a big deal for some teams, but it is for Longwood, a team from the Big South Conference. The Lancers opened the tournament rolling past Southern Mississippi, as 9 1/2-point home 'dogs. That was the 10th time in their last 11 tries the Lancers had covered in a non-conference matchup. DePaul is the home team here. Yet it should be noted that the Blue Demons won't be on their regular home court. It's being used to host a women's basketball tournament. So this game is being played at a much smaller gym that is the home of the DePaul women's volleyball team.
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03-24-19 | Oklahoma v. Virginia -11 | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
Rarely has Oklahoma encountered a defense as tough as Virginia's. When the Sooners did they did not fare well going 0-5 versus Wisconsin and two games each against Texas Tech and Kansas State. Not once in those five games did the Sooners break the 61-point barrier. Virginia is the No. 1 defensive team in the country - by a wide margin. The Cavaliers rank No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 2 in 3-point defense and No. 5 in defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma is extremely lucky to even make the Tournament. The Sooners entered tournament play 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS. Oklahoma can get hot, though. The Sooners did just that in blowing out overachieving Mississippi, 95-72, on Friday. Now, though, the Sooners are going way up in class. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory. The Cavaliers aren't taking anything for granted after they became the first No. 1 seed to lose in the first round of the tournament falling to Maryland-Baltimore Country last season.The Cavaliers were tight during the first half of their Thursday opening round tournament game against Gardner-Webb. But then they found their groove in the second half to pull away for a 71-56 victory.
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03-23-19 | Murray State +5 v. Florida State | Top | 62-90 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
On the surface, this spread should be higher, right? A good ACC team in Florida State taking on Murray State from the Ohio Valley Conference. But there is more than meets the eye here. Murray State is legitimate and on a roll with 12 straight wins. Racers guard Ja Morant may be the second-best player in college basketball in back of only Duke's Zion Williamson. The Racers didn't just beat but dominated a very strong Marquette squad, 83-64, on Thursday. The Racers are on a mission to showcase their talents and Morant's superstar game - 24.4 points, 10.2 assists and 50.4 percent shooting statistics on the season. Florida State had to endure a rugged ACC slate and reaching the conference tournament title game. So sure the Seminoles are battle tested, but the flip side is they also have a higher fatigue factor. That may have been played a part in their less-than-sterling 76-69 non-cover win against Vermont on Thursday. Vermont sank 16 of 32 shots from 3-point range. That could prove telling against the up-tempo gunning Racers. Florida State relies on its size and defense to beat opponents. The Seminoles don't have a Morant. Murray State, though, has a couple of big man pounders in KJ Williams and Darrell Coward to keep competitive on the boards. The Racers are 8-2 ATS, too, during their last 10 non-conference games. Florida State is 1-6 ATS the past three plus seasons under Leonard Hamilton when laying points in post-season tournament action.
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03-22-19 | Clippers -6.5 v. Cavs | 110-108 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Break up the Cavaliers? I don't think so. Cleveland has won two in row beating the Bucks and Pistons. Milwaukee was minus Giannis Antetokounmpo and Detroit didn't have Blake Griffin when Cleveland posted those victories. The Clippers are at full strength and going for playoff seeding. LA should be fully focused having been idle the past two days and realizing the Cavaliers have won two straight. Collin Sexton is having a strong rookie season, but Cleveland doesn't offer much else. Kevin Love, the Cavaliers' best frontcourt player, may not play due to a concussion. The Clippers average 10 points more per game than the Cavaliers. Cleveland has had problems matching up when taking on opponents from the superior Western Conference going 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS the past eight times. |
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03-22-19 | Arizona State v. Buffalo -4.5 | Top | 74-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
Buffalo blasted Arizona, 89-68, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. I easily can see the Bulls doing the same to a much worse Arizona State squad. The Bulls are the MAC champions. So it's easy to point out they are a mid-major, but Buffalo dominated that conference while the Pac-12 was way down this season. I don't see the Sun Devils being able to keep pace with the Bulls especially with point guard Remy Martin dealing with a groin injury. I'm sure Martin, the catalyst for the Sun Devils, will play but I doubt he will be 100 percent. The Bulls are riding a 12-game winning streak. They are the more rested team having last played on Saturday. ASU had to beat St. John's on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio to reach this game. This marks the Sun Devils' third game in eight days - all in different time zones. Buffalo is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 84.9 points. That's more than seven points better than what Arizona averages. The Bulls certainly aren't going to lack motivation taking on a Pac-12 opponent especially with the added incentive of going against Bobby Hurley, the former coach of Buffalo. Bulls coach Nate Oats was Hurley's lead assistant and recruiting coordinator before replacing his departed mentor. Note, too, that Buffalo is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against nonconference opponents.
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03-21-19 | Florida v. Nevada -2 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
Nevada has far more talent and experience than Florida. The Gators are lucky to have made the Tournament given that they have 15 losses. The Wolf Pack paid their dues last season. They reached the Sweet 16 and have all their key pieces back. I consider Eric Musselman one of the top coaches in the nation. The spread is lower than I thought. One reason for this could be Nevada getting upset, 65-56, as 10 1/2-point favorites against San Diego State in the semifinals Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Wolf Pack are much better than that. They were missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder, Jordan Caroline, in that game. Carolina is expected to play here. Nevada is 19-6-1 ATS following a loss.
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03-21-19 | Murray State v. Marquette -3 | 83-64 | Loss | -117 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm going to fade the line move here. Marquette isn't getting enough respect from the marketplace while Murray State is getting too much. The Racers have Ja Morant and little else. Marquette has its own superstar, Markus Howard, and a far superior supporting case. Howard has been dealing with a wrist injury, but is fine. The Golden Eagles get check marks across the board against Murray State - better defense, stronger rebounding team and superior from the foul line.
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03-21-19 | Bradley v. Michigan State -18 | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
Tom Izzo isn't happy Michigan State didn't get a No. 1 seed. So some team is going to pay the price. That team is Bradley, a a typical Missouri Valley Conference squad that can play defense but can't score. The Braves rank 311th in scoring averaging 66.6 points. They are not a high percentage shooting team, nor good at making free throws. The Braves averaged 57 points in their three Missouri Valley Conference Tournament games. Michigan State is used to this type of opponent being in the Big Ten except its competition is far stronger. The Spartans' last four opponents have been Michigan twice, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bradley is a major step down. The Braves aren't going to be able to keep up with Michigan State's superstar guard Cassius Winston and have no backdoor capabilities when trailing by double-digits. Bradley also doesn't have any tournament pedigree like Michigan State. The Braves have lost 17 straight games to Top 25 opponents. They last played in the NCAA Tournament in 2006.
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03-20-19 | Sam Houston State +13.5 v. TCU | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Don't sleep on Sam Houston State. The Bearkats will be far more motivated for this NIT matchup than Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had their sights set on the NCAA Tournament. But a blown 12-point lead in a loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Conference Tournament doomed TCU's NCAA chances. It's hard to imagine TCU getting up for this matchup. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games. TCU finished its regular season 3-7. Sam Houston State is 17-3 in its last 20 games. The Bearkats have covered nine of their last 11 road contests and also are 10-4 ATS during their past 14 non-conference matchups. They also are a far betting free throw shooting team than TCU.
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03-20-19 | Wizards -2 v. Bulls | Top | 120-126 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
The youthful Bulls may not be fully focused for this home matchup as they just concluded three games on the West Coast with a 116-101 win against the Suns on Monday. Motivation shouldn't be a problem for the Wizards. They are in must-win mode trailing the Heat by 4 1/2 games for the final playoff spot in the East. The Wizards are a respectable 8-10 since trading Otto Porter to the Bulls for Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis. Porter has done well with the Bulls, but sat out Chicago's victory against Phoenix with a sore shoulder. Zach LaVine, the Bulls' best player, has been gutting things out with a thigh and knee injury. There are no guarantees Porter and LaVine play against the Wizards. Washington handled the Bulls, 134-125, at Chicago last month. The Wizards have covered seven of the past eight times when meeting a sub .500 opponent.
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03-20-19 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +4 | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
Great spot for the Grizzlies here. Memphis is playing well at home covering nine of its last 11 at FedEx Forum and draw the Rockets carrying a heavy rating and in a look-ahead spot. This marks the Rockets' fourth game in six days and second in two days. Houston took care of Atlanta, 121-105, as 7 1/2-point road favorites on Tuesday. Following this game, the Rockets host the Spurs on Friday. Houston leads San Antonio by three games in the Southwest Division. A loss to the Spurs in that matchup obviously would tighten up the division. Houston already is holding out Eric Gordon against the Grizzlies for rest purposes. Perhaps the Rockets might even sit James Harden and Chris Paul, too. Unlike the Rockets, the Grizzlies are fully rested. They have been idle the past three days. Memphis hasn't lost by more than six points at home during the past 11 times.
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03-19-19 | Dayton v. Colorado -4.5 | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
Unlike the NCAA Tournament, some teams aren't excited about getting to play in the NIT. Dayton is one such team. The Flyers finished their regular season in highly disappointing style losing, 64-55, as 4 1/2-point favorites against St. Louis in their opening game of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. Indications are the Flyers are not excited about traveling to Boulder, Colo., for this matchup. Not helping matters for the Flyers is their leading scorer, Obi Toppin, is deaing with a knee injury. Contrary to Dayton, Colorado is excited about competing in this tournament. The Buffaloes are young and expect to return all of their main players for next season. They want to use this tournament to gain more big-game experience. The Buffaloes are 10-3 in their last 13 games. They also have covered eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. This is what Colorado coach Tad Boyle was quoted as saying about his team and playing in the NIT: "We're playing well here down the stretch. There are a few teams that are leaking oil this time of year, but we're not one of them. I like the way we're playing and really the key for our guys is they are excited, they are going to embrace this. They did not want their season to end."
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03-19-19 | 76ers v. Hornets +1 | 118-114 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
This may be Charlotte's game of the year. The Hornets are two games out of the final playoff spot in the East and have triple revenge against the 76ers, losing three times to them this season by an average of only two points per game. The Hornets play much better at home with a 21-14 mark compared to 10-24 on the road. The 76ers have covered just 42 percent of their road games this season going 14-19. Philly is in a sandwich spot, too. The 76ers just upset the Bucks on the road in a nationally televised game this past Sunday and host the Celtics on Wednesday. So it's easy for the youthful 76ers to look past the Hornets. The 76ers already have said they will sit out Joel Embiid in order to rest him for the Celtics. Philly has failed to cover five of the past six times when meeting a below .500 opponent.
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