06-06-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 9 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-118 |
18 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Josh Tomlin has been an underrated pitcher this year. Tomlin has had two subpar starts in a row prior to this game, but those were both on the road. For the year, Tomlin has an ERA of just 3.27. The Twins lineup is extremely weak right now with Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Thome and others out with injuries. Cleveland's offense is slumping badly right now. Scott Baker is a pretty good pitcher and he has a solid record against the Tribe in the past. I think this number is too high. Take the under here.
|
06-05-11 |
Houston Astros v. San Diego Padres OVER 7 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
115 |
16 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Totals TKO* Sam Holbrook is the umpire behind the plate in this one. Holbrook is probably the best 'over' umpire in all of baseball right now. The over is 10-1 in his 11 games behind the plate so far this year. He calls only 61% of pitches a strike, which is two or three percent lower than many other umpires. Jordan Lyles is a good young pitcher, but he is bound to struggle at some point and Holbrook will squeeze the zone. Latos has been decent this year, but he has been far from dominating. Take the over.
|
06-05-11 |
Washington Nationals v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 |
|
9-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* This is the type of game that I could easily see Ian Kennedy showing his dominating stuff. In three different games this year he has allowed one run or less in at least 8 innings of work. Washington's lineup is extremely weak, and the Diamondbacks are playing very solid baseball right now. The biggest surprise for me has been the Arizona bullpen, which is actually quite good. The Diamondbacks are 18-4 in their last 22. I like the DBacks to win this one comfortably.
|
06-05-11 |
Washington Nationals v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9 |
|
9-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 55 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals have a very weak lineup and Ian Kennedy has proven he can be lights out this year. Kennedy has a 6-2 record and a 3.16 ERA this year. He also has a very impressive WHIP of 1.08. Jason Marquis has pitched well most of this year as well. Chase Field's roof will be closed Sunday and that should help Marquis keep his sinker ball in the park a little better. This is the type of total I would expect with the roof open, but with it closed it seems too high. Take the under.
|
06-05-11 |
Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -114 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 9 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Hidden GEM* The Giants have a weak lineup right now, but they have been doing a solid job of continuing to find ways to win. The Giants still believe and they still have a great pitching staff and defense. Ryan Vogelsong just continues to dominate and I think it's about time I give him his due. Jason Hammel hasn't been good on the road, and the Rockies are playing bad baseball right now. Muchlinksi is the umpire behind the plate and the home team is 38-15 in his last 53 behind the dish. Take the Giants.
|
06-05-11 |
Texas Rangers -135 v. Cleveland Indians |
|
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* Mitch Talbot simply isn't a very good starting pitcher, and the Texas Rangers aren't the type of lineup to mess around with. Texas may have the best lineup in baseball with Hamilton, Cruz, Young, Kinsler, etc. Since Hamilton and Cruz have returned from the DL this team is scoring more than six runs per game. C.J. Wilson is pitching very well this year and the Indians are struggling badly against lefties of late. The Indians are 0-4 against their last 4 lefties, and they are 2-8 in Talbot's last 10 starts. Take the Rangers here!
|
06-04-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers -134 v. Florida Marlins |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 30 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Moneyline Cash* Yovani Gallardo is pitching brilliantly of late. In fact, he has allowed just five earned runs in his last five starts overall. Chris Volstad has allowed four runs or more in five or his last nine contests. The Brewers have one of the best lineups in baseball, and the Marlins are missing Hanley Ramirez right now. I think the Brewers have a significant advantage in both the pitching and lineup departments here. The Brewers are 10-3 in their last 13 overall. The Brewers are 5-0 in Gallardo's last 5 starts.
|
06-04-11 |
Atlanta Braves -122 v. New York Mets |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-122 |
17 h 28 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Moneyline Value Play* Dillon Gee has pitched well this year, but he has yet to face a team with a winning record. The Braves are short-handed offensively, but they still have guys like Jones, McCann, and others who can hit the ball well. Jair Jurrjens is on the hill for the Braves and he has the best ERA in the National League so far this year. Jurrjens has been consistently great. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his starts this year. The Braves are 22-8 in their last 30 meetings against the Mets. Take Atlanta.
|
06-04-11 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 33 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* Doug Eddings is the umpire behind the dish in this one and he is one of the best in the business for an 'under' bettor. Eddings has a wide strike zone and he likes to ring up the batter. Ricky Romero is one of the best young pitchers in the league and he has an ERA of just 1.7 in his last three starts. The Orioles have been terrible against lefties all year and I think Romero will be very hard on them. Jake Arrieta has been bad of late, but a lot of that has been due to walks. I think Eddings will give him the corners here and he'll fare well. The under is 23-7-1 in Eddings last 31 Saturday games behind the plate. Take the under.
|
06-04-11 |
Texas Rangers v. Cleveland Indians OVER 9 |
|
4-0 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Fausto Carmona is an extremely streaky pitcher. He is either on or he isn't, and of late he has not been on his game. Carmona has an ERA of 10.06 over his last three starts. Carmona can't be happy to see the heavy-hitting Texas lineup on Saturday, and his career ERA against them is 5.55. Derek Holland hasn't been very good this year, and Cleveland has hit the ball extremely well at home this year. The over is 7-1 in the Rangers last 8. The over is 16-5 in the Indians last 21 home games. Take the over.
|
06-04-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 35 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago Cubs offense has gotten runners on base this year, but they haven't been able to drive them in. Right now they are without Soriano, Byrd, and Ramirez. That is three of their top hitters. St. Louis is without Holliday, but they still have five other guys hitting .300 or better. This is a Cardinals team that is playing very good baseball over the last few weeks. Kyle Lohse has had just one bad start all year. I think the Cardinals will take advantage of a short-handed Cubs team. St Louis -1.5.
|
06-03-11 |
New York Yankees +149 v. Los Angeles Angels |
|
2-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
21 h 6 m |
Show
|
*3 Star BIG Dog Winner* The New York Yankees are one of the best teams in baseball and I don't think they should be this big of an underdog at any point. Ivan Nova isn't a terrific pitcher, but he generally keeps his team in the game. Jered Weaver is very good, but he has been terrible against the Yankees in the past. Weaver has an ERA of 5.55 against the Yankees, largely because he gives up far too many home runs. Granderson and Rodriguez have combined to hit 8 homers off Weaver in just 29 at bats. I think this game should be a pick em game, and I love the value on the Yankees here.
|
06-03-11 |
Washington Nationals v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
125 |
20 h 34 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Late Night Mismatch* The Arizona Diamondbacks dropped the series opener to the Washington Nationals 6-1. I think this is a good chance for them to bounce back and get back on their winning streak. Collmenter has been terrific so far this year and the Nationals don't have a very good offense. Maya hasn't proven to be a capable starter in the big leagues and with Chase Field's roof open I think the Diamondbacks are liable to take him deep several times. I think this is the type of game that could get ugly. Take the DBacks -1.5.
|
06-03-11 |
Detroit Tigers v. Chicago White Sox -1.5 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
145 |
19 h 59 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneymaker* The Chicago White Sox were never as bad as their record showed early this year, and this was a team that was bound to get red hot. They have proven in the past few years that once they get red hot they can be very tough to slow down. The Tigers embarrassed the White Sox in three straight games earlier this year in Detroit. I think Chicago will give them some payback this weekend. Oliver is a decent young pitcher for the Tigers, but this is a tough matchup for him. Buerhle has great numbers against the Tigers key hitters including Miguel Cabrera who is just 2 for 20 off him. I like the White Sox to win this one comfortably. White Sox -1.5 here.
|
06-03-11 |
Oakland A's v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
|
6-8 |
Win
|
115 |
17 h 24 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Run line ROUT* The Oakland Athletics simply don't have the lineup to keep up with the Red Sox, and in this game they don't have the pitcher to matchup with the Sox either. Clay Buchholz has been stellar at home in his career, and the Red Sox are 10-4 in his last 14 starts at home. Josh Outman is pitching for the Athletics and he struggles badly with control problems. I think the Red Sox are the type of team that will make him pay for walking too many batters. The Red Sox have a big advantage everywhere here. Take Boston -1.5.
|
06-03-11 |
Atlanta Braves -103 v. New York Mets |
|
6-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 36 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* The New York Mets came back from a 7-0 deficit to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates yesterday. One might think that would help them carry momentum into Friday night's game, but the Mets have been the type of team that has been wildly inconsistent all year long. The Braves have had the Mets number for a while now. Atlanta is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams. The Mets are 5-16 in their last 21 at home against a team with a winning record. The Braves tend to play more fundamentally sound baseball than the Mets, and I'll take them at even money here. Braves ML is the play.
|
06-03-11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers +119 v. Cincinnati Reds |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 22 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Under the Radar Gem* Bronson Arroyo has been absolutely horrible of late. Arroyo has an ERA of 13.50 in his last three starts. There are some questions about whether Arroyo has an arm problem. In his career, Arroyo is just 9-24 during the month of June and he has an ERA of 5.55 (nearly a run higher than any other month of the year). Hiroki Kuroda has faced the Reds twice in the last three years and he has allowed a total of two runs in those two games. Kuroda is a solid pitcher who will face a struggling Reds lineup. How about this for an interesting stat? The Dodgers are 18-3 in Kuroda's last 21 starts against the NL Central. Take the Dodgers ML here.
|
06-03-11 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. Baltimore Orioles -123 |
|
8-4 |
Loss |
-123 |
17 h 59 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Pitching Mismatch* I consider Zach Britton a future star in the majors. Britton did not pitch well at all in Oakland on Sunday, but I expect him to bounce back in this one. Britton has an ERA of just 1.91 in 47 innings pitched at home this year. Villaneuva has never proven himself as a major league starting pitcher, and I think the Orioles should be able to get to him. The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 home games. I think Baltimore bounces back from a rough stretch behind a strong performance from Zach Britton.
|
06-02-11 |
Washington Nationals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
|
6-1 |
Loss |
-111 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Totals TKO* Chase Field is expected to have the roof open tonight, and that generally means there will be a bunch of runs scored. This becomes the best hitters park in all of baseball with the roof open. Jordan Zimmerman is a pretty good pitcher, but this Diamondbacks lineup with Upton, Young, Johnson, etc. should be able to get to him. Zach Duke is not a very good starter and he gives up a lot of fly balls. Even though Washington isn't a good offensive team, I expect them to score some runs tonight. I like the over in this game.
|
06-02-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 |
|
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 16 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* I realize Anthony Swarzak nearly pitched a no-hitter in his last outing, but the stats tell me it is unlikely he'll follow that up with a good outing. In his career Swarzak has an ERA of 5.72. Sean O'Sullivan has been dreadful of late, and this Minnesota lineup has been better in the last couple weeks. O'Sullivan has an astonishingly bad ERA of 13.80 in his last three starts. The wind in this one is expected to be blowing out at about 15 mph. The warm temperature at gametime should help as well. The over is 24-7 in the last 31 meetings between these two. Take the over.
|
06-02-11 |
Texas Rangers v. Cleveland Indians OVER 9.5 |
|
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 29 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Texas Rangers have one of the best lineups in baseball right now. With Andrus, Young, Hamilton, Cruz, and others this is a team that can pile up the runs. Carlos Carrasco is generally hittable and I think this Texas team can get to him. David Bush starts for Texas. He has never proven to be a particularly capable starter in the last few years. The Indians are absolutely pounding the baseball of late. The over is 12-4 in the Indians last 16 at home. The over is 4-0 in Carrasco's last 4 home starts. The over is 5-1 in Texas' last 6 games. Take the over.
|
06-02-11 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. New York Mets UNDER 7.5 |
|
8-9 |
Loss |
-118 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Paul Maholm is pitching very well this year. The under is 9-1-1 in his last 11 games overall. The Mets don't hit left-handers well, and without Wright and Davis this lineup is short-handed. Mike Pelfrey has been inconsistent overall, but he has been very good at home. Pelfrey has allowed just five earned runs in his last four starts at home. On the year he has an ERA at home of just 2.08. The Pirates lineup is not daunting, and I think he'll quiet them nicely in this one. Take the under.
|
06-01-11 |
Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 7 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
21 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Ubaldo Jimenez continues to struggle in 2011. Jimenez is wild both inside and outside the strike zone this year. The Dodgers are slowly getting healthy and their lineup is certainly more formidable now with Furcal and Blake back. Jon Garland is an average pitcher, but many of the Rockies hitters have great stats against him. Carlos Gonzalez has 11 hits in 18 at bats against Garland. The over is 11-3-1 in Jimenez's last 15 starts against the Dodgers. Angel Campos is a very solid over umpire. The over is 19-9-1 in his last 29 games behind the plate. Take the over.
|
06-01-11 |
Florida Marlins v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 10 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Runline ROUT* The Arizona Diamondbacks lost last night, but they are still the hottest team in baseball over the last couple weeks. Who would have thought Arizona would be at the top of the NL West right now? The Diamondbacks are doing it with an impressive lineup and a very good bullpen. Daniel Hudson is a solid starter, and he has been very good at home. The Marlins are expected to be without Hanley Ramirez again on Wednesday. Javier Vazquez is on the mound for Florida and he has a 6.34 ERA on the road this year. Take the Diamondbacks -1.5.
|
06-01-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers +103 v. Cincinnati Reds |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Milwaukee Brewers have struggled mightily on the road this year, but they have a very solid team. Milwaukee has a great lineup with Weeks, Hart, Braun, Fielder, McGhee and others. Also, Shaun Marcum is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball right now. Marcum has been especially dominating on the road this year. Marcum is 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA on the road in 2011. Mike Leake is inconsistent and the Reds bats have been silent of late. I think the Brewers are a great value here. Take Milwaukee.
|
06-01-11 |
Cleveland Indians v. Toronto Blue Jays -117 |
|
13-9 |
Loss |
-117 |
19 h 40 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Toronto Blue Jays are a pretty good team. Jose Bautista is proving last year was no fluke, and he is the best hitter in baseball right now. Kyle Drabek hasn't been terribly consistent, but he has definitely shown what he is capable of doing. Josh Tomlin has been great this year for Cleveland, but his ERA is about 1.5 runs per game worse on the road in his short career. The Tribe are slowly coming back to earth, and I think they are being lined a little too generously by the books right now. The home team is 35-16 in Tim McClelland's last 51 games behind the plate. The Jays are 4-1 in Drabek's last 5 home starts. Take Toronto.
|
06-01-11 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 |
|
0-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
15 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Felipe Paulino will make his first start of the year for the Royals. Tyler Chatwood will start for the Angels. Neither pitcher has proven to be able to put up strong starts on a consistent basis in their past. Chatwood struggles with his control and Paulino gives up the big inning too often. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph in this one. Kansas City is red hot offensively right now. The Royals have scored 6,7, and 7 runs in their last three games. Both pitchers are capable of giving up a lot of runs, and I think the value is on the over.
|
06-01-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 16 m |
Show
|
*5 Star TOP PLAY DOMINATOR* The Seattle Mariners are two games above .500 despite having one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Safeco Field is a pitcher's dream, and the two pitchers going on Wednesday afternoon are both great young pitchers. Michael Pineda has been amazing of late, and he is at his best at home. Brian Matusz is making his first start of the year in the majors, but he has been tremendous in his rehab starts. In three rehab starts he had an ERA of 1.20. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is a huge 'under' umpire. The under is an amazing 60-26-6 in his last 92 games behind the plate. Take the under big in this one!
|
06-01-11 |
Chicago White Sox v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 |
|
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The White Sox have heated up in a big way of late. They held off Boston last night in a high-scoring affair, and I think we are in for another high scoring game on Wednesday. Tim Wakefield has a 4.92 career ERA against the White Sox. The Red Sox offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and they are a threat to score six or more runs every time out. Tim Tschida is the umpire in this one, which is a big boost for 'over' bettors. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 behind home plate. It is also 4-1 in last 5 behind the dish when Wakefield is starting, which shows he can be tough on the knuckle ball pitcher. Take the over.
|
05-31-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Erik Bedard was getting hit around in his first few starts of the season, but he has been terrific of late. Bedard has allowed just 4 runs in his last five starts. Seattle has been winning with solid defense and very good pitching. The Orioles can't hit left-handed pitching well at all. Baltimore averages just 3.33 runs per nine innings against lefties. Jeremy Guthrie is a solid pitcher and this Seattle offense is nothing special. The under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Take the under.
|
05-31-11 |
Cleveland Indians v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 |
|
6-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 42 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Cleveland Indians have had the best record in baseball most of this year, but this team isn't THAT good. The Indians are a solid story, but they have been sliding of late. I think this is a good chance to play against them. Mitch Talbot has never proven to be a quality starting pitcher. Brandon Morrow has been lights out at home over the years (an ERA of under 3). The Blue Jays are 20-6 in Morrow's last 26 home starts. Toronto has a red hot lineup and the pitching edge. I like the Blue Jays -1.5 here.
|
05-31-11 |
San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
3-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 34 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The San Francisco Giants pounded out seven runs yesterday, but with this weak lineup they currently have, I doubt they can do that two days in a row. Chris Carpenter has been nearly unbeatable at home over the last few years. The Cardinals are 50-18 in Carpenter's last 68 home starts. Ryan Vogelsong has been good of late, but I don't think he can keep up his performance. The Cardinals offense is very good, and with Holliday and Berkman back in the lineup I expect them to put up several runs. Take the Cardinals -1.5.
|
05-31-11 |
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 v. Washington Nationals |
|
2-10 |
Loss |
-107 |
18 h 32 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH* Cliff Lee started the year a bit slowly, but he seems to be rounding into form of late. Washington hits .200 against left-handers and Lee is much better than the average left-handed pitcher. Jason Marquis doesn't have a good history against the Phillies. In fact, he has a 5.61 ERA in his career against Philadelphia. The Phillies offense has been great since Chase Utley came back at the beginning of last week. I think this one is a mismatch, with the Phillies having a huge edge in both pitching and hitting. Phillies -1.5.
|
05-30-11 |
Florida Marlins v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
4-15 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 28 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Best Bet* Both Joe Saunders and Chris Volstad are fly ball pitchers and that isn't a good thing for them at Chase Field with the roof open. Chase Field is the best hitters park in the majors when the roof is open. The roof is expected to be open Monday night. The Diamondbacks are playing very good baseball right now, and they have several people who can hit the ball out of the ballpark. The Marlins are a scrappy bunch who seem to manufacture runs and come up with clutch hits. I think both pitchers will struggle here. Take the over.
|
05-30-11 |
San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 34 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The San Francisco Giants are the defending World Series Champions, but I think they are worthy of being faded right now. Without Buster Posey in the middle of the lineup, the lineup is much weaker. Pablo Sandoval is also out of the lineup. Madison Bumgarner has improved some of late, but he is still walking too many batters. Kyle McClellan continues to fly under the radar for St. Louis. McClellan has 2.7 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in his last three starts. The Cardinals have the best batting average in the majors. I don't think the Giants can keep up. Take the Cardinals -1.5.
|
05-30-11 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8 |
|
10-8 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 12 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Kansas City Royals are one of the better hitting teams in the league. The Royals have quite a few solid professional hitters who make it tough on the opposing pitcher. Ervin Santana has a career road ERA of 4.97. Luke Hochevar has been terrible in the past against Los Angeles. He has an ERA of 8.27 against them. The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at nearly 25 miles per hour in this one. With a total set so low, I really like the value on the over in this game!
|
05-30-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Seattle Mariners -110 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 46 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Seattle Mariners have really surprised me with how well they have played thus far in 2011. I still believe this team will suffer a long slide at some point this year, but they are playing well right now. Baltimore just got swept by the Oakland Athletics, and the Orioles are dinged up right now. They are without Derrek Lee, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones is questionable in this one as well. Doug Fister has an impressive 3.18 ERA this year. Jake Arrieta has been getting hit around quite a bit of late. Getting the Mariners at nearly even money seems like a good value to me. Take Seattle.
|
05-30-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 |
|
5-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 15 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins are playing terrible baseball right now. The bullpen is a huge weakness and the offense is still pretty bad. Jim Thome is questionable for this game, and Brad Penny has solid career numbers against these Twins hitters. Nick Blackburn has been pitching well, but the Tigers have had his number over the years. Blackburn has an ERA of 7.5 in Detroit in his career. Miguel Cabrera is 11 for 24 off Blackburn. The Tigers have the better lineup and I think they have the pitching advantage as well. I like the value on the runline here. Take Detroit -1.5.
|
05-29-11 |
Baltimore Orioles +106 v. Oakland A's |
|
4-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
16 h 58 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Oakland Athletics have a very weak offense. In fact, Oakland are 25th in the majors averaging 3.60 runs per game. Oakland typically relies on its great starting pitching to win the game for them. Guillermo Moscoso will make the second start of his career on Sunday against Baltimore. He threw six scoreless innings against the Angels in his first start. I don't believe Moscoso deserves to be favored over the extremely-talented Zach Britton from Baltimore. Moscoso has had an ERA of over 4 in AAA, so I don't see him dominating in the long run in the majors. Britton is one of the best young prospects in the game. The Orioles are 6-0 in Britton's last 6 starts against teams with a losing record. Take the Orioles moneyline.
|
05-29-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Colorado Rockies OVER 8.5 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
17 h 9 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Kyle Lohse has been pitching very well this year, but he typically isn't nearly as strong on the road. Coors Field is far from a pitchers ballpark, and Lohse has struggled mightily here in the past. Lohse is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA in his three starts at Coors Field. Chacin is on the hill for Colorado and he is solid, but St. Louis has the best batting average in the majors. Chacin has been much better on the road than at home in his short career, and I expect St. Louis to be able to put some runs on the board. The wind is expected to be blowing out as well. Take the over.
|
05-29-11 |
Kansas City Royals v. Texas Rangers -1.5 |
|
6-7 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH* The Kansas City Royals are now just 6-15 on the road this year. Daniel Duffy will start Sunday for the Royals. Duffy is a solid prospect and he should be a good one, but this is a very tough spot for him. Texas absolutely crushed left-handed pitching, and the Rangers are healthy again. Alexi Ogando has been one of the best stories in all of baseball. Ogando has an ERA of 1.81 in nearly 60 innings this year. The Royals are 14-41 in their last 55 road games. The Royals are 1-8 in their last 9 at Texas. Take Texas -1.5.
|
05-29-11 |
San Francisco Giants v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7 |
|
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 29 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Totals TKO* Yovani Gallardo is a streaky pitcher, but when he is pitching well, he can be extremely dominant. In his last four starts he has allowed a total of five earned runs. The Giants lineup is very weak right now without Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval. I expect Gallardo to pitch very well. At the same time, Matt Cain is a very solid pitcher. I don't think Milwaukee will be able to put up too many since Cain has several overpowering pitches. The under is 20-9-1 in the Giants last 30. The under is 5-0 in Gallardo's last 5 starts against the Giants. Take the under.
|
05-29-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Washington Nationals UNDER 8 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-115 |
14 h 19 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* This play is more about the two offenses than the pitching matchup. Maya struggled much of last year, but the Padres haven't scored more than three runs in their last 12 games. The Nationals aren't much better offensively. In fact, these are the 29th and 30th ranked offenses in baseball. Dustin Mosely has been underrated this year and as long as he keeps the ball down in the zone I expect him to have success against the Nationals. The under is 5-0 in San Diego's last 5. The under is 4-1 in Washington's last 5 home games. Take the under.
|
05-28-11 |
Kansas City Royals v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 |
|
1-10 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 28 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Kansas City Royals are a pretty good offensive team, especially against left-handed pitchers. Kansas City hits .268 against lefties and they score 5.14 runs per game against them. Matt Harrison has been pretty good this year for Texas, but he doesn't have a good track record at home, where the long ball has been a problem for him. Sean O'Sullivan has an ERA above nine in his last three starts, and the Rangers lineup is extremely tough now that they are healthy again. I expect both starters to get hit pretty hard in this one. Take the over.
|
05-28-11 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. New York Mets OVER 7 |
|
5-2 |
Push |
0 |
17 h 21 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Cole Hamels is a terrific pitcher, but he hasn't been very good against the Mets in his career. He is just 2-9 with a 4.35 ERA against New York in his career. Mike Pelfrey has an ERA above 5 this year, and while he has been solid at home, he is very inconsistent and the Phillies offense is improving. Scott Barry is the umpire in this one, and the over is 8-1-1 in his last 10 games behind the plate. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph in this one. I think the total is set too low here. Take the over.
|
05-28-11 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Minnesota Twins OVER 7 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Jered Weaver has been great this year, but his production hasn't been quite as good the last few games. The Twins are starting to get healthy offensively, and they have been putting up some runs of late. At the same time, the Minnesota bullpen has proven to be among the worst in all of baseball this year. Jim Reynolds is a terrific 'over' umpire. The over is 108-82 in his last 190 games behind the plate, so that is a long-term trend worth backing. I like the value on the over in this matchup.
|
05-28-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals -124 v. Colorado Rockies |
|
4-15 |
Loss |
-124 |
17 h 26 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Juan Nicasio makes his major league debut in this one for the Rockies. Nicasio has a great fastball and terrific command, but he hasn't faced a lineup even close to as good as the Cardinals in the past. In fact, he has only pitched 56 innings above the Class A level in the minor leagues. The Cardinals lead the league in batting average as a team, and I expect them to make it tough on him on Saturday. Jaime Garcia is terrific, as evidenced by his 5-0 record with a 1.93 ERA. The Rockies struggle against lefties as well. I like the Cardinals in this one.
|
05-27-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals +145 v. Colorado Rockies |
|
10-3 |
Win
|
145 |
19 h 24 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Dog of the Day* Ubaldo Jimenez has not been the same pitcher he was in 2010. While he has shown signs of improvement in his last couple starts, the Cardinals have the best batting average of any team in the majors. I think St. Louis will be a real test for Jimenez. Jake Westbrook started the season poorly, but he has been keeping the ball down in the zone of late very well. Five of his last six starts have been quality starts. It seems strange to see the Rockies laying so much money when they are 1-10 in Jimenez's last 11 starts. Take the underdog in this one. Cardinals moneyline.
|
05-27-11 |
San Francisco Giants v. Milwaukee Brewers -109 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-109 |
19 h 53 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* This is certainly not a fade of Tim Lincecum, rather it is a fade of the Giants poor offense. This is the type of game that could easily finish 1-0 or 2-1 and I think it will be in the Brewers favor. Shawn Marcum has flown under the radar this year, but he has been terrific. He has an ERA of 2.37 on the year. The Brewers are 20-6 in their last 26 home games overall. The Giants are missing Posey, Fontenot, Sandoval, and others from an offense that was already week. The Brewers have a huge advantage offensively, and I think they'll take this game. Brewers moneyline is the play.
|
05-27-11 |
Cleveland Indians v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 |
|
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 6 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* David Price has owned the Cleveland Indians in the past. In fact, Price has an ERA of just 2.59 in four starts against Cleveland. Tampa Bay has struggled to hit the ball consistently, especially at home. Joel Tomlin is much better than the books give him credit for. How good has Tomlin been? He has a quality start in every single start this year. I expect this to be a pitcher's duel in Tampa Bay tonight. This is a good case of two solid pitchers with a good defense behind them. Take the under in this one.
|
05-27-11 |
Philadelphia Phillies -130 v. New York Mets |
|
6-4 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 16 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Value Play* The Philadelphia Phillies are the best team in the National League right now. The New York Mets are a team that doesn't exactly know their identity. David Wright and Ike Davis are both out of the lineup. Chris Capuano is on the hill for New York, and I just don't think he has the stuff to shutdown this impressive Phillies lineup. Roy Oswalt may not be completely healthy, but he still gives the Phillies a decided pitching edge here. I think the Phillies have the edge everywhere in this game. The Phillies are 35-16 in their last 51 road games. Take the Phillies moneyline.
|
05-27-11 |
Boston Red Sox v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9 |
|
6-3 |
Push |
0 |
18 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Boston Red Sox have scored 14 runs in back-to-back games. Normally, I might say it is time for the team to cool off, but this Boston offense has been underachieving all year and now they are busting out in a big way. Rick Porcello has been very good of late, but he hasn't faced competition that is even close to the level of the Red Sox lineup. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez are red hot right now, which is key for Boston. Detroit has a solid lineup as well, and Tim Wakefield is unlikely to shut them down. The wind is expected to be blowing out in this one. I like the over.
|
05-26-11 |
Florida Marlins +104 v. San Francisco Giants |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
104 |
13 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Florida Marlins are the underdog in this game, and I think that gives us a ton of value. Anibal Sanchez is slated to pitch in this one and Sanchez is one of the better pitchers in the National League. Last year he pitched a complete game shutout in San Francisco. Buster Posey was injured in last night's game and he is unlikely to play in this series finale. Ryan Vogelsong has been great of late for the Giants, but I just don't think he has the stuff that Sanchez has. The Marlins have the better offense and the better pitcher in this one. Take the Marlins.
|
05-26-11 |
Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels +101 |
|
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
14 h 46 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Joel Pineiro tends to be underrated a bit by the books. Brett Anderson is a very good pitcher, but the Angels have hit him well in the past. These two pitchers squared off earlier this year and Pineiro pitched better, but the Athletics won in extra innings. I expect the Angels to win this one at home as they face an Oakland team that is really on the skids right now. The Angels hit lefties well, and Oakland's lineup is poor. The Angels are 10-2 in Pineiro's last 12 home starts. Take the Angels.
|
05-25-11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. Houston Astros OVER 8 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-101 |
12 h 4 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Ted Lilly has been pretty solid this year, but there are some alarming stats in this one for him. His road ERA in his career is 4.51. Jeff Nelson is the umpire in this one, and Lilly hasn't fared well at all with Nelson behind the dish. Lilly has a 7.71 ERA in 6 starts with him behind the plate. Aneury Rodriguez is a young pitcher for the Astros who simply doesn't get deep into games, which is a bad thing for the team when the Astros have what is probably the worst bullpen in baseball. I think we'll see a lot of both bullpens and I like the over here.
|
05-25-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. Minnesota Twins +100 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins are finally starting to get healthy, and I think they will be a decent play in the coming weeks because the books are so low on them right now. The Seattle Mariners have played decent baseball this year, but I'm not impressed with their lineup at all. I think the Mariners are bound to finish with one of the worst records in baseball. Erik Bedard has been much better of late, but the Twins key hitters (Morneau, Cuddyer, Span, and Thome) all have had success against Bedard. Brian Duensing has been in bad form of late, but don't forget he has a career ERA of under 3 at home. I'll take the Twins at even money in this one.
|
05-25-11 |
Washington Nationals v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 |
|
4-6 |
Win
|
132 |
12 h 33 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* Jason Marquis is a very streaky pitcher. He had a solid start to the year, but he has begun to scuffle of late. The Brewers have an offense that is fully capable of putting up a ton of runs. Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Hart, McGhee, etc is a tough lineup to face. Zack Grienke has been a little rusty so far this year, but he has tremendous stuff and going against Washington is liable to help him find his way. The Nationals lineup is bad to start with and they are without both Zimmerman and LaRoche right now. I think the Brewers win this one comfortably. Take Milwaukee -1.5.
|
05-24-11 |
Florida Marlins v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6.5 |
|
5-1 |
Win
|
101 |
8 h 6 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* I continue to believe Matt Cain is a better pitcher than the oddsmakers give him credit for. In Cain's career he has a 2.98 ERA against the Florida Marlins. Ricky Nolasco is one of those rare pitchers that is actually better on the road than at home. Nolasco has an impressive 1.91 ERA against the Giants in 28 innings in his career. Neither of these teams have a particularly strong offense, and this is a big ballpark that is tough to score runs in. The under is 7-1 in the Giants last 8 home games. I look for a pitcher's duel here. Take the under.
|
05-24-11 |
Washington Nationals v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8 |
|
6-7 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 22 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Livan Hernandez has been underrated constantly for the last two years by oddsmakers. The under is 18-6-2 in his last 26 road starts overall. The Washington Nationals offense is absolutely terrible, especially against lefties. The Nationals are hitting a miserable .197 as a team against lefties. Chris Narveson is having a breakout year for the Brewers and the under is 7-2 in his last 9 starts. Lance Barksdale is behind the plate here and he is calling 65.5% of pitches a strike this year, which is a great sign for under bettors. I like the under in this one.
|
05-24-11 |
Chicago White Sox v. Texas Rangers OVER 8.5 |
|
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 17 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Ballpark in Arlington is notorious for a wind tunnel that pushes the ball out to center and left field in certain weather conditiions. It looks as if tomorrow the weather will provide that wind tunnel effect. Jake Peavy was great in his last start, but the Rangers offense is one of the best in the league when healthy and they are now healthy. Derek Holland starts for the Rangers and he has a career ERA over 5.5 at home. Tim McClelland may be the best 'over' umpire in the business right now because of his tiny strike zone. Take the over in this one!
|
05-24-11 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 |
|
4-12 |
Win
|
133 |
13 h 16 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird* Joe Saunders is on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks and it is a road game. The Diamondbacks are 0-13 in Saunders' last 13 road starts overall. What about the flip side? Jorge De La Rosa is terrific at home and the Rockies are 22-4 in his last 26 home starts. The Diamondbacks have been hot of late, which just gives us a better number here. In Saunders' only start at Coors Field he didn't make it out of the third inning. I think the Rockies win this game by a comfortable margin. Take the Rockies -1.5.
|
05-23-11 |
Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
121 |
21 h 9 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Jered Weaver hasn't looked quite as dominating in his last three starts, but I think this is a good chance for him to get back into his dominating form. The Oakland Athletics have one of the weaker lineups in baseball, and Weaver pitched a complete game shutout against them earlier this year. Josh Outman is getting a spot start here for the Athletics, and I just don't think he is going to prove to be a quality starter. He has an ERA of 4.7 in AAA so far this year, and he has averaged almost one walk per inning. The Angels have the better lineup and they have a huge pitching advantage here. The Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against Oakland. Take the Angels -1.5.
|
05-23-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. Minnesota Twins -106 |
|
8-7 |
Loss |
-106 |
20 h 53 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error* The Minnesota Twins are certainly not the team they were a couple years ago, but at this point I think the oddsmakers have gotten too low on them. Minnesota will get back Jim Thome and Jason Repko on Monday, and Delmon Young came back last week. This is a lineup that is slowly getting healthy once again. Seattle is far from a strong team, especially on the road. Jason Vargas has been great in his last three starts, but I think he's bound to have some regression soon. The Mariners are just 4-13 in Vargas' last 17 starts overall. Carl Pavano has pitched very well in his last two starts. Minnesota is 21-7 at home against the Mariners in their last 28 meetings. Take the Twins in this one!
|
05-23-11 |
Chicago White Sox v. Texas Rangers OVER 8.5 |
|
0-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
19 h 52 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago White Sox started the year out terribly on offense, but the lineup has finally got going of late. Chicago has scored 8 runs or more in three of their last four games. The Texas Rangers are expected to get Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz both back in the lineup on Monday, and that should make a huge difference for them. The Rangers have crushed lefties all year and I'll think they'll get to Danks in this one. The wind tunnel at Arlington should be pushing the ball out in this game. I think this is a good value on the over. Take over 8.5 here.
|
05-23-11 |
Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees OVER 9 |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
109 |
19 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total TKO* The New York Yankees offense appears to finally be waking up. The Yankees have scored 40 runs in their last six games. Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, and Derek Jeter have all been swinging a hot bat of late. Bartolo Colon has been pretty good this year, but he is certainly capable of giving up the long ball. Toronto's offense, anchored by Jose Bautista, is no slouch. Carlos Villaneuva is pitching for the Blue Jays and he hasn't started a game since 2009. I don't expect him to last long here. I think this will be a high scoring affair. Take the over.
|
05-23-11 |
Boston Red Sox v. Cleveland Indians +112 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
112 |
19 h 49 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Cleveland Indians are 18-4 at home this year, but they continue to get a lack of respect from the oddsmakers. Justin Masterson allowed just one run in his two appearances against the Red Sox last year, and he has a terrific 2.52 ERA so far this year. Clay Buchholz has been great of late too, but he threw 127 pitches in his last start and he has an ERA of slightly above 8 against the Indians in his career. The Red Sox played late last night in Boston while the Indians should be rested up nicely. I like the situational play here and the Indians at plus money at home is too good to pass up. Take Cleveland.
|
05-22-11 |
Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6.5 |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-115 |
14 h 35 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Gio Gonzalez and Johnathan Sanchez are two very talented left-handed starters. The Giants and Athletics both have a very weak offense. Gonzalez has the ability to shut down just about any team he faces, and the Giants just aren't good offensively right now. Sanchez has looked much better in his last couple starts, and I think he can tame the A's offense. The under is 9-3-1 in Gonzalez's last 13 road starts. The under is 7-0 in the Giants last 7 home games. I like the under in this one.
|
05-22-11 |
Colorado: U Jimenez v. Milwaukee: R Wolf OVER 7.5 |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-121 |
13 h 33 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* Ubaldo Jimenez has not looked like himself this year. He was shaky in his last start against the Giants, and the Brewers have a much stronger lineup. I expect Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Hart, etc. to get to Ubaldo in this one. Randy Wolf pitched well earlier this year, but his form has been poor of late. He has an 8.56 ERA in his last three starts overall. The Rockies lineup hasn't been hitting that well of late, but I think they'll burst out of their slump against a soft-throwing lefty like Wolf. Take the over big here.
|
05-22-11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 |
|
3-8 |
Loss |
-101 |
12 h 10 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Under the Radar Total* Hiroki Kuroda is a very underrated pitcher at this stage in his career. Kuroda has an ERA of just 2.80 on the year, but the books continue to think of him as a mediocre starter based on their lines. Edwin Jackson is a bit inconsistent, but I think he'll have the upper hand against a short-handed Los Angeles Dodgers offense. The Dodgers gave up on Jackson a few years ago, and I think he'll be motivated to shut them down here. The under is 13-6 in the Dodgers last 19 games overall. Take the under.
|
05-22-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8 |
|
9-8 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Value Play* Jaime Garcia is a terrific left-handed pitcher, but the Royals have a made a living off hitting lefties well this year. The Royals were shutout yesterday and I think they'll bounce back on Sunday. Sean O'Sullivan pitches for Kansas City, and he has been getting hit hard of late. The Cardinals won't have Berkman, but Pujols and Holliday in the middle of the order is very tough. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 mph during this one. Angel Campos is the umpire here, and he has one of the smallest strike zones in the majors. Take the over.
|
05-21-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 |
|
6-9 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 36 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Twins offense has started to put it together as they slowly get healthy. Delmon Young is back in the lineup and Justin Morneau is hitting the ball well right now. Micah Owings is starting for Arizona, and I just don't think he is a good fit here. Owings gives up a lot of fly balls and Chase Field is a hitter's paradise when the roof is open (as I expect it will be Saturday). Scott Baker has been solid on the road this year, but this Arizona team can hit the ball well, and I think both teams will put up several runs Saturday. Take the over.
|
05-21-11 |
Seattle Mariners v. San Diego Padres OVER 6 |
|
4-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
21 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* I rarely play an 'over' with Seattle or San Diego, but I feel this number is just set too low. Clayton Richard hasn't been in good form at all of late. Richard has an ERA of 7.17 in his last three starts. Pineda is very good, but he hasn't been as good on the road as he has been at home. The over is 8-3 in Richard's last 11 starts. The Padres offense has shown some signs of life in the last couple weeks, and the Mariners hit left-handers much better than right-handers. I like the value on the over in this one.
|
05-21-11 |
Detroit Tigers -121 v. Pittsburgh Pirates |
|
2-6 |
Loss |
-121 |
18 h 33 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* I simply don't believe the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to be near .500 for very long this year. They have fought hard so far this year, but Pittsburgh has a lot of holes in their lineup. The Tigers are a solid team with Martinez, Cabrera, and Austin Jackson who is heating up nicely of late. Max Scherzer has been one of the best starters in the majors so far this year and I think he can quiet this Pittsburgh offense. The Tigers are 7-2 in Scherzer's last 9 starts. Take Detroit here.
|
05-21-11 |
Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 54 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Homer Bailey has looked good in his starts so far this year. He had an ERA under one in his AAA rehab starts, and he has an ERA under 2 in his starts in the majors. Bailey is throwing strikes much more frequently than he has in the past. Everyone keeps waiting for Josh Tomlin to have a bad game, but he just continues to hit his spot and nibble at the corners. Tomlin has a 2.56 ERA for the year. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this game, and he is my single favorite 'under' umpire in the majors. Miller has a huge strike zone and I think both of these pitchers will benefit. Take the under here.
|
05-21-11 |
Washington Nationals +142 v. Baltimore Orioles |
|
3-8 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 45 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Washington Nationals had a huge offensive night in Baltimore last night. I don't expect them to repeat that performance, but I do think the oddsmakers are too low on the Nationals in this one. The Nationals are 7-2 in John Lannan's last 9 road starts. The Baltimore Orioles don't hit lefties well at all. In fact, the Orioles average just 2.92 runs against lefties. Jeremy Guthrie is a decent pitcher for Baltimore, but the Orioles are 1-6 in his last 7 starts. Brian Roberts and Derrek Lee are both out, and I don't think the Orioles should be laying this kind of price. Take the Nationals.
|
05-21-11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. Chicago White Sox -1.5 |
|
2-9 |
Win
|
150 |
13 h 14 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Chicago White Sox were beaten in dramatic fashion last night. The Dodgers had some unlikely heroes in their come from behind win in Chicago. The White Sox have been the best Interleague team in baseball over the last few years, and I think they'll bounce back here. Chicago is 39-16 in their last 55 Interleague games. Mark Buerhle is on the hill and the Sox are 23-6 in his last 29 Interleague starts. Jon Garland isn't particular strong on the road, the Dodgers are 0-5 in his last 5 road starts. The Dodgers lineup is very short-handed now and I think the White Sox will win this one comfortable. White Sox -1.5 is the play.
|
05-20-11 |
Los Angeles Dodgers v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 |
|
6-4 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Hidden GEM Total* Lance Barksdale is behind the dish here and he is a terrific 'under' umpire. He calls more than 64% of pitches a strike in the last year, which is much higher than the league average. Phillip Humber continues to be underrated and he should be able to work the corners against a poor Dodgers offense. Ted Lilly has fared well in the past with Barksdale and this White Sox team is hitting just .225 this year against lefties. The wind is blowing in from left field slightly here, so that should help as well. I like the under in this one.
|
05-20-11 |
New York Mets v. New York Yankees OVER 9 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
17 h 32 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Yankees/Mets BEST Bet Winner* The Mets and Yankees will square off tonight in the Bronx. The Yankees offense burst out in a big way last night with 13 runs against Baltimore. New York has what may be the best lineup in all of baseball, and I think they'll finish the year near the top in runs scored. R.A. Dickey had a nice year in 2010, but he has regressed a lot this year. In two of his last three starts he has allowed six earned runs. Dickey has an ERA of 5.08 on the year. Garcia has been fairly good, but I don't think he'll pitch a shutout here against a Mets team with Beltran, Reyes, and Bay. The over is 5-1 in the Yankees last 6 interleague games. The over is 6-2 in Dickey's last 8 starts. This my BEST Bet play of the day. Take the over.
|
05-20-11 |
Washington Nationals v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 |
|
17-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
16 h 23 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Totals Terrorizer* Jason Marquis has been keeping the ball down this year and getting a lot of ground balls. Jake Arrieta has come along very nicely in his second year in the majors. Arrieta has a 4.03 ERA and Marquis a 3.54 ERA this year. I think both pitchers are underrated right now. The Orioles will miss Derrek Lee in this one, as he is the only Oriole with good career numbers against Marquis. The Nationals haven't scored a run in 21 innings! They'll likely score here, but I don't think they'll score much. Take the under.
|
05-20-11 |
Houston Astros v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 15 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Aneury Rodriguez is not the type of pitcher that can pitch deep into a game. The Houston Astros have the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Rodriguez has gone no more than five innings in each of his starts this year, which spells trouble for the Astros. The Blue Jays are hitting the ball really well right now. JoJo Reyes doesn't have shutdown stuff, and the Astros should be able to put up a few runs against Reyes. Jose Bautista is a one-man wrecking crew right now, and the rest of the lineup for Toronto isn't bad either. I like the over in this one.
|
05-20-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 |
|
5-15 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* Doug Davis is on the hill for the Cubs in this one. Davis had an ERA above 7 last year. He was decent in his one start this year, but that was against the Giants. The Red Sox are starting to hit the ball better, and Davis walks far too many hitters. Jon Lester is nearly unbeatable at home, and I don't think the Cubs are playing good enough baseball to beat him tonight. The Red Sox are 42-13 in Lester's last 55 home starts. The Red Sox are also a ridiculously good 76-28 in their last 104 interleague games. I expect Boston to roll in this one. Boston -1.5 is the play.
|
05-19-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers -107 v. San Diego Padres |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-107 |
20 h 60 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Aaron Harang started the year brilliantly, but he has come back to earth of late. The Brewers have several guys (Hart, Weeks, Fielder, Braun, etc) who have hit Harang well in their career. Chris Narveson has had just one really bad outing this year, and I think he can tame the Padres weak offense. The Brewers have a much better lineup and they are at least even in the starting pitching matchup here. I like the value on the Brewers moneyline here!
|
05-19-11 |
Atlanta Braves -106 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Moneyline Bookie SMASHER* I was on the Braves last night, and Atlanta certainly should have won that game, but baserunning miscues and errors meant the Braves beat themseleves in extra innings. I'll take Atlanta again in this one. The Diamondbacks start Collmenter, who has been absolutely terrific, but he hasn't faced a strong offense yet. I think the Braves will get to him some. Jair Jurrjens is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball at this point. Jurrjens hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his starts this year. The Braves are 4-0 in his last four starts. I don't think the books are giving him enough respect. I like the Braves in this one!
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05-19-11 |
Chicago Cubs v. Florida Marlins OVER 9 |
|
5-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* The Chicago Cubs have the second best team batting average in baseball. They have struggled to hit in clutch situations, but Chris Volstad doesn't have overpowering stuff. On the other hand, the Cubs defense is dreadful, which means the other team often gets easy runs. Casey Coleman is on the hill for the Cubs, and he has a 7.22 ERA this year. The over is 7-1 in the Cubs last 8 games. The over is 8-3 in Volstad's last 11 home games. I think both teams will get quite a few hits in this one, and I think 11 or 12 runs is fairly likely. Take the over.
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05-19-11 |
Minnesota Twins v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
|
11-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Brian Runge is the home plate umpire in this one and you won't find many better 'under' umpires than than him. The under is 53-31 in his last 84 games behind the plate, and this year he has called nearly 65% of pitches a strike, which is the highest of any umpire in the majors. Nick Blackburn and Tyson Ross are both pitching extremely well of late, and neither team has a strong lineup at all right now. The under is 9-4 in Blackburn's last 13. The under is 5-1 in Ross' last 6 starts. The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. Take the under.
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05-19-11 |
Houston Astros v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 8 |
|
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 52 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The St. Louis Cardinals beat the Houston Astros on Wednesday night, but it was a costly win. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday were both injured in the win. Neither of them are expected to be in the lineup on Wednesday afternoon. Colby Rasmus will miss this one as well. The Cardinals offense will be severely short-handed. Houston's offense is one one of the worst in the majors, and Kyle McClellan has been very good at home. On a get away day in the afternoon I think this will be a pitcher's duel. Take the under.
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05-18-11 |
Atlanta Braves -107 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Atlanta Braves are a better team than the Arizona Diamondbacks, and I believe they'll have a significant pitching advantage in this one as well. Julio Teheran has been dominating the minor leagues the last few years. In fact, he is ranked as one of the top five prospects in all of baseball by many publications. He has gone 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA in AAA this year. Joe Saunders isn't very good, and he is a fly ball pitcher in a ballpark that is not kind to fly ball pitchers at all with the roof open. The roof should be open tonight. Saunders has a WHIP of 2.3 this year with the roof open. I think the Braves will take it to Saunders, and Teheran will pitch well. Take Atlanta in this one!
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05-18-11 |
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 |
|
5-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
18 h 56 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Cincinnati Reds have won five straight and eight of their last nine overall. The Pittsburgh Pirates were briefly one game above .500, but they have since dropped six straight. In each of those losses they have been beaten two or more runs and failed to cover the +1.5 runline. The Reds have covered the -1.5 runline in seven of their last eight victories overall. Bronson Arroyo has a 3.42 ERA against the Pirates in his career. Charlie Morton has a 5.18 ERA against the Reds in his career. The Reds have the much better lineup as well. Pittsburgh is 4-18 in Morton's last 22 road starts. The Reds are 10-1 in their last 11 games against a right-handed starter. I like the Reds to win comfortably. Take Cincinnati -1.5.
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05-18-11 |
Tampa Bay Rays -103 v. Toronto Blue Jays |
|
6-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Under the Radar Gem* The Tampa Bay Rays have been playing very good baseball of late. Toronto has won six straight as well. Something has to give in this matchup, and I'm going to go with the team who has the better pitcher. Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson is one of the best young pitchers in the league. In his last outing he threw a complete game shutout. He hasn't allowed more than four runs in any start this year. Jesse Litsch is a decent starter, but the Blue Jays are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts against Tampa Bay. Toronto crushes left-handed pitching, but they are only average against right-handers. I like Tampa Bay to win this one.
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05-17-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 |
|
1-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
20 h 57 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Chase Field becomes a hitter's paradise with the roof open. This proved to be very true last night as the baseball was carrying extremely well in a 8-4 San Diego win. The Padres bats are scorching hot right now, and I expect them to score a few runs again. The Diamondbacks are solid offensively and Tim Stauffer will likely have trouble with the conditions here. The over is 12-3-3 in the Padres last 18. The books haven't caught up with the Padres hot bats of late, and the open roof makes this one a solid value on the over.
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05-17-11 |
New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 |
|
6-2 |
Loss |
-102 |
17 h 57 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Yankees have dropped six games in a row. The Tampa Bay Rays are in the lead in the AL East. Tampa Bay's offense is much improved with Evan Longoria in the middle of the order. BJ Upton is swinging a hot bat right now as well, which makes a big difference for the Rays. James Shields has been good this year, but his history against New York isn't good at all. In his career he has a 4.91 ERA against the Yankees. Ivan Nova is inconsistent and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Rays score several early against him. I think 8.5 is too low here. Take the over.
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05-17-11 |
San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies OVER 8 |
|
3-5 |
Push |
0 |
14 h 37 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Ubaldo Jimenez was one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball last year. He hasn't been the same pitcher so far in 2011. He has just one quality start this year and his ERA is 6.67. Jonathan Sanchez has been struggling mightily with his control this year, and I think that will hurt him quite a bit at Coors Field. I think the books are lining this game more like it was last year. These pitchers are both struggling now, and this is definitely a hitter's ballpark. The wind will be blowing out in this one. The over is 6-0 in Jimenez's last 6 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in Sanchez's last 4 starts in Colorado. Take the over.
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05-16-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers -110 v. Los Angeles Dodgers |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 11 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers are short-handed offensively right now. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are solid in the middle of the order, but the rest of the lineup is quite weak. Jon Garland isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't dominant at his point in his career either. Shaun Marcum has been terrific this year and I think he is one of the most underrated starters in the majors. Marcum has a 1.14 ERA in five road starts this year. He also has an ERA of just 1.42 against the Dodgers in his career. The Brewers have Weeks, Fielder, Braun, McGhee, Hart, and others in a strong lineup. I like Milwaukee to win this one.
|
05-16-11 |
San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 |
|
8-4 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 53 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field becomes a massive hitters ballpark when the roof is open, and I would expect it to be open on Monday night. The San Diego Padres were terribly offensively until the last four games, when they have stunningly starting hitting the cover off the ball. San Diego has scored 13, 7, 9, and 8 runs in their last four games. Armando Galarraga has given up six home runs in just 18 innings at Chase Field this year. The ball should be flying out again Monday night. Clayton Richard is a solid pitcher at home, but he struggles on the road because he allows a lot of home runs. The over is 7-1-3 in the Padres last 11. I like the over in this one.
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05-16-11 |
Texas Rangers v. Chicago White Sox -120 |
|
4-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
20 h 14 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Chicago White Sox underperformed badly to start out the season, but this is not a bad team. The Texas Rangers are without Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz right now. Colby Lewis hasn't been very good of late, and he has been terrible against the White Sox in the past. At US Cellular Field Lewis has an outrageous ERA of 11.15. Lewis has a WHIP of 2.22 in his starts at Chicago. Edwin Jackson is good at home and the White Sox are 4-1 in his last five home starts. I think we are still getting a good value on the White Sox because of their terrible start. Take Chicago.
|
05-15-11 |
Chicago White Sox v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 |
|
4-3 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
*3 Star Under the Radar Total* Trevor Cahill continues to fly under the radar despite being one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. People talk more about Gio Gonzalez and Brett Anderson, but Cahill is the real ace of this staff. Cahill has allowed more than one run in a game only once this year, and that was on the road. At home his ERA is 1.03. The under is 17-5-1 in Cahill's last 23 home starts. The White Sox offense will likely struggle with this pitcher who keeps the ball down in the zone. Mark Buerhle hasn't fared well against Oakland, but it has usually been to due to a lack of run support. The under is 7-1-1 in his last 9 starts against Oakland. I like the under in this one today.
|
05-15-11 |
New York Mets v. Houston Astros OVER 8.5 |
|
7-4 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 48 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Both of these have terrible bullpens, and I don't either of the starting pitchers will make it very deep into this game. Aneury Rodriguez has been pulled after about 80 pitches in both of his first two starts. Chris Capuano was solid in his first start against Houston, but I think the Astros will get to him in this start. Capuano simply doesn't have overpowering stuff at this point. I think both pitchers are capable of giving up big innings here, and the bullpens will contribute to the total. Take the over.
|
05-15-11 |
Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 |
|
9-3 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* The Tampa Bay Rays were held to four hits and no runs by Brad Bergesen on Saturday. With a healthy Evan Longoria in the middle of the lineup, the Rays don't have a bad offense. I think they'll bounce back against Jake Arrieta in this one. Andy Sonnanstine is pitching for the Rays, and he has never proven to be a very effective starter. The over is 4-0 in Sonnanstine's last 4 starts against Baltimore. Derryl Cousins is a nice 'over' umpire as well. The over is 9-3-2 in his last 14 games behind the dish. Expect a higher scoring affair here. Take the over.
|
05-15-11 |
Florida Marlins v. Washington Nationals -110 |
|
4-8 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 18 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Florida Marlins will be looking for the sweep in this one, but they'll have Javier Vazquez on the mound. Vazquez has been terrible this year. Vazquez has a WHIP of 1.87 this year and his ERA is 6.88. Jason Marquis has quietly been having a pretty good season for the Nationals. Marquis generally pitches quite well at home. The Nationals are 5-1 in Marquis' last 6 starts overall, and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. The Nationals will be fighting hard to avoid the sweep in this series. I think they'll win this one. Take Washington.
|
05-15-11 |
Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 6.5 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* It's Roy Halladay vs. Tim Hudson is this amazing pitching matchup. I will come right out and say I generally hate to play an 'under' on a total set at 6.5. In this case I believe it is a solid value. Roy Halladay has amazing numbers just about everywhere, and he is the best pitcher in the game, but his numbers against Atlanta are amazing. In 16 innings at Turner Field he hasn't allowed a run. In 35 and 2/3 against the Braves overall he has allowed a total of five earned runs. Tim Hudson is a better pitcher during the daytime, and he has been great at home. Shane Victorino and Jason Heyward are both expected to miss this game, which is big for this bet as well. Take the under.
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