Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-25-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins may have the two worst offenses in the National League. Miami is averaging just 2.57 runs per game. The Cubs are averaging 3.25 runs per game. Kevin Slowey has been pitching well against quality competition of late, and Edwin Jackson has been good on the road in his career. The under is 4-1 in the Cubs last 5. The under is 12-4-1 in the Marlins last 17 home games. The under is 4-0 in Slowey's last 4 starts. Look for an ugly low scoring game. Take the under.
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04-25-13 | Houston Astros v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Houston Astros put a beat down on the Seattle Mariners yesterday, but I still believe they are one of the two worst teams in the majors (Miami being the other). Houston will start Phillip Humber, who pitched only 1/3 of an inning and gave up 8 runs in his last start. Humber is a streaky pitcher, and it won't surprise me a bit if he struggles badly again. Clay Buchholz has dominated opposing hitters all year, and this will be the worst lineup he has faced yet. Buchholz has Ace type stuff, and he is showing it this year. The Red Sox 22-8 in his last 30 as a home favorite. The Astros are 11-43 in their last 54 against a team with a winning record. Take Boston -1.5.
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04-25-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -118 v. New York Mets | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets are off to a great start to the season, but I count myself among the doubters who believe this team isn't nearly as good as they are playing right now. The Mets have too many weaknesses and not enough standouts to continue playing this well. On the other side, the Dodgers aren't playing as well as they should be, but I expect them to kick it in and win quite a few games this season. Ryu has dangerously good stuff, and when he puts it together he'll be very tough. Hefner isn't a good major league pitcher at this point in his career. Last night's grand slam walkoff gives us better value here on the better team. The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 in New York. Take the Dodgers.
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04-24-13 | Milwaukee: M Estrada v. San Diego: E Volquez OVER 7 | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total Domination* Edinson Volquez has been one of baseball's worst pitchers so far this year. Volquez has an ERA of 8.84 so far this year. The Brewers offense is really clicking right now and that is bad news for Volquez. Marco Estrada doesn't have overpowering stuff and he routinely gives up 3 or 4 runs in a game. Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here, and the over was a stunning 27-6 in his 33 games behind home plate last season. It should be noted that PetCo Park has moved in the fences this year and Padres' home games will likely be quite a bit higher scoring this year than last. The over is already 5-2-1 their this season. The over is 9-0 in the Brewers last 9 road games against a team with a winning percentage less than 40%. The over is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 home games against a righty. The over is 6-0 in Estrada's last 6 starts on the road against a team with a losing record. Take the over here.
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04-24-13 | Seattle: J Saunders v. Houston: L Harrell UNDER 8 | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros have two of the worst offenses in baseball. These two teams have a really tough time stringing together many hits, so they are reliant on home runs to score. The problem for both of them is they really don't have many home run hitters. Joe Saunders pitched a shutout against the Astros earlier this year. Lucas Harrell has been great at home since the beginning of last year. The under is 8-3 in Harrell's last 11 home starts. The under is 5-2 in the Mariners last 7 road games. Take the under in this one.
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04-23-13 | Milwaukee Brewers -110 v. San Diego Padres | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Milwaukee Brewers are really on a roll right now. While I'm not convinced that the Brewers are a terrific team, they are up against one of the worst teams in baseball in this one. San Diego's offense is very weak now, and their pitching staff isn't even close to what it used to be. The Padres start Clayton Richard in this one, and he has been under the weather with the flu of late. Yovani Gallardo is one of those pitchers who tends to mow down weak lineups. Gallardo has been better on the road than at home in the last year. Milwaukee has some real pop in the middle of the lineup, and the Padres have almost none. Milwaukee is 8-0 in their last 8 games. They are 5-0 in Gallardo's last 5 road starts as the favorite. The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 home games. Take Milwaukee.
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04-23-13 | Texas Rangers -113 v. Los Angeles Angels | 4-5 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels have done battle plenty of times in the last few years, and Alexi Ogando has been brilliant against the Angels. He has an ERA below 3 in his career against the Angels. Jason Vargas has started the season slumping (6.95 ERA) for the Angels and he has a 4.48 ERA against the Rangers in his career. The difference between these two offenses isn't as much as most think. At the same time, the Rangers have a much better starting rotation and bullpen. Ogando pitched poorly last time out, but he has bounced back in a big way in his career many times before. Texas is 6-1 in Ogando's last 7 starts. Take Texas.
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04-22-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 | 4-5 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total* The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the lightest hitting teams in baseball right now. The DBacks didn't have a good offense to start with, and now they are without three of their top hitters due to injuries. At the same time, Arizona's pitching staff is very good. Wade Miley has been great since he arrived in Arizona last year. Miley has been consistently very good. Ryan Vogelsong has been great at home over the past two years and I think he'll be good against this short-handed Arizona offense. The under is 7-0 in the DBacks last 7 games. The under is 8-0 in the DBacks last 8 games as an underdog. The under is 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 road games. Take the under.
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04-22-13 | Milwaukee Brewers -121 v. San Diego Padres | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Milwaukee Brewers started the season horribly, but they have won seven straight games since that bad start. Milwaukee is the hottest team in baseball right now. Kyle Lohse hasn't gotten enough credit for his consistency over the past couple years. He has started the year out just like he pitched all of last year. Lohse had a career low 2.86 ERA last season. The Padres may have the weakest offense in the majors right now. Grandal and Quentin are out due to a suspension, and Kyle Blanks may miss this game as well. Milwaukee's lineup has been red hot of late. Jason Marquis is well past his prime, and the Brewers should put up several on him. The Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. The Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 games. Milwaukee is 5-0 in their last 5 against a right-handed pitcher. Take Milwaukee.
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04-22-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Justin Masterson has been great so far this year for the Cleveland Indians. Masterson has pitched two brilliant games in three outings this year. One of those was a complete game shutout against the White Sox. Masterson has a brilliant 2.60 ERA in 7 career starts at US Cellular Field in Chicago. The White Sox offense has been ice cold of late. Dylan Axelrod has been steadily improving as a starter, and he has the stuff to be a quality pitcher for the Sox. The wind will be blowing in for this one. The under is 6-0-1 in the White Sox last 7 games. Take the under here.
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04-21-13 | Atlanta Braves -1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 2-4 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates have has success in this series so far, but I expect that to end on Sunday. The Atlanta Braves came into this series with the best record in baseball for a good reason. Atlanta is extremely balanced. The Braves have a terrific rotation, bullpen, and offense. Kris Medlin has been dominate for the Braves in the past year. Medlin has an ERA well under 2 in more than 150 innings pitched in the past year. The Pirates will start left-hander Jonathan Sanchez who has been horrible during that same time period. Sanchez had an ERA over 8 last season, and his ERA is even higher so far this season. Sanchez struggles to throw strikes, and the Braves will make him work. Atlanta has the much better team overall. This one looks like a mismatch. Atlanta is 25-2 in Medlin's last 27 starts. Take Atlanta -1.5.
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04-21-13 | Washington: Zimmermann -139 v. New York (N): D Gee | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -139 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Moneyline TOP PLAY* The New York Mets have taken the first two games in this series. Washington is clearly the better team, but the Mets are playing with a decent amount of confidence right now. Dillon Gee is the weak link in the New York Mets rotation. Gee has always been very inconsistent on the mound. Most of the hitters in the Nationals lineup have had a lot of success against Gee.
Jordan Zimmerman will start for the Nationals. Zimmerman is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball today. Zimmerman's consistency on the mound makes him a top flight pitcher in this league. In 9 of his last 10 starts Zimmerman has a quality start. Washington will almost certainly finish the season with a better record than New York, and I think we are getting solid value here because the Mets have been so hot of late. The Nationals are 6-0 in Zimmerman's last 6 starts as a road favorite. The Nationals are 8-0 in Zimmerman's last 8 after the team allowed 5 runs or more in the previous game. Washington is 5-0 in Zimmerman's last 5 starts against the Mets. The Mets are 0-5 in Gee's last 5 starts as an underdog. Take Washington big. |
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04-20-13 | Arizona: T Cahill v. Colorado: De La Rosa -125 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Colorado Rockies are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 home games. Arizona has a good pitching staff, but their lineup just isn't suited for winning high scoring battles at Coors Field. Jorge De La Rosa is a much better pitcher than he is generally given credit for. He has been a money making machine over the last few years. The Rockies are 7-0 in De La Rosa's last 7 starts against Arizona. Colorado is 24-4 in their last 28 home games with De La Rosa on the mound. In all, a 41-4 angle backs this play. The much better offense and the underrated pitcher make the Rockies my play here. Take Colorado.
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04-20-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 9 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total* The Los Angeles Angels offense has been slumping all year, and everyone has been waiting for them to break out of it. The Angels piled on the runs late in last night's game to win 8-1 over Detroit. By scoring 5 runs late in the game, you have to wonder if this team didn't just open up the flood gates. This Angels offense is too good to struggle for too terribly long. The Tigers offense has the highest batting average in baseball. Umpire Paul Emmel saw the over go 27-6 in his 33 games behind the dish last year. Rick Porcello and Garrett Richards are both capable of giving up the big inning and these are two strong offenses. The over is 7-0 in the Tigers last 7 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in Porcello's last 5 starts. The over is 6-0 in the Angels last 6 against a team with a winning record. Take the over.
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04-20-13 | Washington Nationals v. New York Mets OVER 7.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Mets are playing like a team with a lot of confidence right now. On paper, Washington may have the best team in baseball. The Mets won last night's big pitching showdown as Matt Harvey pitched a gem. Several New York Mets players have a decent history against Gio Gonzalez who will start Saturday's game for the Nationals. Jeremy Hefner has an ERA of almost 6 against Washington in his young career. The wind is expected to be blowing out at nearly 20 miles per hour during this game, and we have a solid over umpire in Gerry Davis. Take the over.
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04-19-13 | Detroit: A Sanchez -106 v. LA Anaheim: T Hanson | 1-8 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Los Angeles Angels haven't done anything on the field all year, but the oddsmakers continue to give them a ton of credit. Detroit has a solid record despite playing a tough schedule, and the Tigers are absolutely contenders for the World Series this year. Anibal Sanchez is one of the best #3 or #4 pitchers in baseball. Sanchez does a good job locating pitches and keeping the ball in the ballpark. Tommy Hanson was lit up by Houston in his last start at home. Hanson's inconsistency over the last two years is striking. Detroit has the much better bullpen and defense, and I would argue that right now their lineup is better as well. The Angels are 2-7 in their last 9. Take the Tigers.
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04-19-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 102 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB TOP Play* The Seattle Mariners improved a bit in the offseason, but it wasn't even close to enough to bring them to the level of the Texas Rangers. The pitching matchup here is a huge reason why I like this game so much. Joe Saunders is arguably the worst pitcher in the Mariners rotation, and he is a fly ball pitcher. Yu Darvish is the best pitcher in the Rangers rotation, and he has the potential to compete for a CY Young award very soon.
Saunders has a horrible history in Texas. How bad has he been in Texas? Saunders has a horrific 9.38 ERA in 6 starts in Texas. This isn't a high ERA because he hasn't pitched many innings (he has thrown 31 and 2/3 innings in Texas total). He simply gets shelled in Texas. The pitching mismatch here is huge, and the Rangers lineup is much better than Seattle's as well. Texas is 64-28 in their last 92 home games against Seattle. I really like Texas here. Take Texas -1.5 big. |
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04-19-13 | Miami Marlins v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Miami Marlins are probably the worst team in baseball right now. Miami can't hit, field, pitch, etc. There really isn't any area where the Marlins have a real strength. Giancarlo Stanton is the team's best hitter, but he is less than 100 percent now. The Reds have one of the most balanced teams in baseball. Cincinnati has a good rotation and good bullpen and one of the deepest lineups in baseball. The Reds are 13-3 in Latos' last 16 as a home favorite. The Reds won huge Thursday night and I think it happens again Friday. It's a mismatch. Take the Reds -1.5.
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04-18-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. New York Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 6-2 | Win | 103 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* Patrick Corbin might not be a name that very many people know right now, but the young DBacks pitcher has a great future ahead of him. He was one of the top prospects for Arizona for several years, and he looks terrific early this season. The Yankees offense is obviously not the same without guys like ARod, Tex, Granderson, and Jeter. Arizona's lineup is one of the weakest in baseball, and I expect them to play a lot of low scoring games this year. Ron Kulpa is one of the better 'under' umpires in baseball. He has a wide strike zone and both Corbin and Phil Hughes should be able to take advantage of that. Both pitchers have pitched well with Kulpa behind the plate in the past. The under is 6-0 in the Yankees last 6 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in New York. Take the under.
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04-17-13 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost the first two games of this series to the San Diego Padres. The Padres aren't a good team at all, and their lineup is extremely poor. Clayton Kershaw hasn't allowed a run at home so far this year, and he very well could pitch another shutout against the Padres. He has a 2.28 ERA against the Padres in his career, and the two Padres who have had some success against him (Quentin and Grandal) are both suspended for this game. Tyson Ross' wildness makes him prone to giving up a big inning here and there. The Dodgers lineup isn't tremendous right now, but it is leaps and bounds better than San Diego's.
Kershaw is the perfect guy to have the ball in a situation where the Dodgers are trying to avoid the sweep at home against an inferior team. I really like this spot. The Dodgers are 36-15 in Kershaw's last 51 home starts. They are 6-1 in his last 7 starts against the Padres. I'll never lay this big of a number on the moneyline, so we'll take the run line here. Take the Dodgers -1.5 |
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04-17-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. New York Yankees UNDER 8 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Arizona Diamondbacks have one of the weakest lineups in baseball right now. Jason Kubel, Adam Eaton, and Aaron Hill are all on the DL. The Yankees have tons of hitting stars on the DL. Wade Miley has continually defied the odds and pitched well in his first two years in the majors. He has an ERA of 1.60 in the month of April in his young career. C.C. Sabathia is in form early this year, and the DBacks have been struggling to score runs of late (3 or less in 3 of their last 4 games). It will be a cool night in the Bronx and the wind is expected to be blowing in. Phil Cuzzi is behind the dish and he has one of the biggest strike zones in the majors. The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 home games. The under is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 Interleague road games. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams in New York. Take the under.
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04-17-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -106 v. Baltimore Orioles | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Tampa Bay Rays have been getting beat up of late, but I still think this team will find a way to get it turned around. History tells us that Joe Maddon's team will get on a nice run and contend in the AL East at some point this year. Tampa Bay is relatively healthy right now, and their bats should heat up soon. Matt Moore is one of the most talented young pitchers in the game, and I think this will be a breakout season for him. Chris Tillman is so unpredictable that I can't back him against a young phenom like Moore. Moore has had dominating stuff in his first two starts. Tampa Bay is 4-0 in Moore's last 4 starts. Take the Rays.
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04-16-13 | LA Anaheim: J Vargas v. Minnesota: M Pelfrey OVER 8.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jason Vargas and Mike Pelfrey are both pitchers who are extremely inconsistent. Both of them are capable of giving up a very big inning at any time. Pelfrey should struggle to get through the Angels very strong lineup. At the same time, Vargas has always struggled on the road and in three starts in Minnesota his ERA is above 8. The over is 7-0-1 in the Twins last 8 games after giving up 2 runs or less in the previous game. Basically, the Twins pitching staff is terrible and it is tough for them to string together too many strong outings. The over is 6-0-1 in the Angels last 7 as a road favorite. The over is 4-0-1 in the Angels last 5 Tuesday games. Take the over.
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04-16-13 | Texas Rangers -133 v. Chicago Cubs | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Texas Rangers are amazing at coming back from a loss. Texas is 64-24 in their last 88 games following a loss. They have a much better lineup than the Chicago Cubs, and they have an underrated starter on the hill here in Derek Holland. Holland has developed as a pitcher quite a bit in the past couple years. Travis Wood has started the year well, but this will be the first true offense he has faced. Texas will be much better than the Cubs this year, and I think this is a very nice value on the road team.
The Cubs are 0-7 in Wood's last 7 starts as a home underdog. Chicago is 0-6 in Wood's last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games against a lefty. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 Interleague road games. Take Texas here. |
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04-15-13 | Chicago (A): G Floyd v. Toronto: M Buehrle -137 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Chicago White Sox have only won one game on the road so far this year (out of 6). Toronto isn't off to a very good start, but I expect the Blue Jays to be a good team before it's all said and done. Mark Buerhle has had two very bad starts to start off the season for Toronto, but history tells us he should bounce back here. Buerhle is a very competitive guy who responds well in big spots, and he'll face his old teammates here. I think that helps him a lot more than them. Chicago is 5-21 in their last 26 as a road underdog. Take the Blue Jays.
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04-15-13 | St Louis: L Lynn -110 v. Pittsburgh: J Mcdonald | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of the Day* The St. Louis Cardinals have a much better lineup than the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have struggled to score runs most of the year, and they don't have a good history against Lance Lynn. Lynn has an ERA of just over 1 at PNC Park. James McDonald has been hit hard by Yadier Molina and overall St. Louis has fared well against him. At nearly even money, I can't pass up the much better team here. St. Louis is also coming off a tough loss, and I expect them to be focused and looking to bounce back right away. The Cardinals are 15-1 in Lynn's last 16 starts against the NL Central. They are 5-0 in Lynn's last 5 starts in game one of a series. The Pirates are 0-4 in McDonald's last 4 against the NL Central. Take St. Louis.
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04-14-13 | Colorado Rockies -112 v. San Diego Padres | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Colorado Rockies have a much better lineup than the San Diego Padres. De La Rosa will start for the Rockies, and he has a great history against San Diego. Clayton Richard has struggled against the Rockies. The Padres will be without Chase Headley and possibly without Carlos Quentin. The Rockies have several guys including Troy Tulowitzki, who have absolutely blasted Clayton Richard in the past. The price here isn't very steep at all. I have to take the team with the much better offense and a starting pitcher with great splits against the opponent. The Rockies are 7-0 in De La Rosa's last 7 starts against the Padres. The Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 meetings with the Padres. San Diego is 0-4 in their last 4 home games. Take Colorado.
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04-13-13 | Texas Rangers -146 v. Seattle Mariners | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Texas Rangers lost 3-1 last night which creates some good value on the Rangers moneyline Saturday night. Texas is an amazing 63-24 in their last 87 games following a loss. Alexi Ogando will be a full time starter for the Rangers this year, and I expect big things from him. Ogando throws hard and he has some very good off speed stuff. Joe Saunders has a horrible 6.48 ERA against the Rangers in his career. Seattle's lineup was one of the worst in the American League to start with, and now they are without Michael Morse and Michael Saunders. Texas still has one of the deepest lineups in baseball. The Rangers are 5-0 in Ogando's last 5 starts. The Rangers are 5-0 in Ogando's last 5 starts as a favorite. Take Texas.
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04-13-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 0-8 | Win | 133 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Yovani Gallardo is a pretty good pitcher, but his history against the Cardinals is horrible. Gallardo is 1-9 with a terrible 6.72 ERA in 14 starts against St. Louis. The Brewers still aren't healthy so their offense has been under performing. St. Louis has a deep lineup and I expect them to be among the National League leaders in runs scored this year. Adam Wainwright has a solid history against Milwaukee. The Cardinals seem to be that team that people underestimate every year. The Brewers are 1-6 in Gallardo's last 7 starts against the Cardinals. This one is a mismatch. Take St. Louis -1.5.
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04-13-13 | Detroit: Verlander v. Oakland: B Anderson UNDER 7 | 7-3 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* This is a matchup of two teams who are likely to be contenders all season long. They played twelve innings last night with Oakland winning 4-3. Both teams will be looking for a lot of innings from their starting pitcher, which shouldn't be a problem for Justin Verlander or Brett Anderson. Verlander has been baseball's most dominant pitcher over the last few years. Anderson has been injured a lot, but when he is healthy, he is an extremely good pitcher. Anderson has been especially dominant at home. Verlander has an ERA of right around 2 in his career against Oakland. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Oakland. The under is 6-1 in Verlander's last 7 starts in Oakland. Take the under.
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04-12-13 | Colorado Rockies -108 v. San Diego Padres | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Colorado Rockies don't have a very good pitching staff, but they definitely have plenty of pop in their lineup. San Diego's lineup is very weak right now, and they'll likely be without Carlos Quentin in this one. Jon Garland has had quite a bit of success pitching in San Diego in the past, and I expect him to pitch well for Colorado here. Tyson Ross is extremely inconsistent, and his control problems are a major concern for the Padres. The Rockies have the better starter and the better lineup. Take Colorado.
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04-12-13 | Houston: B Norris v. LA Anaheim: T Hanson -1.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* There becomes a point where the Los Angeles Angels are a good value play because everyone is jumping ship. I think that may start to happen right now, especially since they are matched up against the worst team in baseball. Bud Norris has a career 5.39 ERA on the road. Tommy Hanson is a solid starter, and the Angels offense will get going at some point. Don't be surprised if they take out their frustration on the Astros. Take LA -1.5.
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04-12-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is better this year, but without Hanley Ramirez healthy they aren't what they will be later in the year. The bottom of the order for the Dodgers is among the worst in baseball, and that is holding them back right now. The Dodgers pitching staff has been the best in the majors so far this year. Clayton Kershaw hasn't given up a run this year, and the Arizona offense isn't going to scare anyone. Patrick Corbin is a budding star for the DBacks, and I expect a quality start from him. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two. Take the under.
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04-12-13 | Philadelphia: J Lannan -118 v. Miami: R Nolasco | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins are probably the worst team in the National League. Miami has a terrible pitching staff, bullpen, and lineup. The Marlins are going to lose a lot of games this year. There won't be many chances to play against the Marlins with very little juice, but this is one and I can't pass it up. John Lannan is a pretty good pitcher and he should be able to do well against this weak Marlins lineup. The Phillies offense is better than most believe right now since Chase Utley looks like his old self. The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 following an off day. Miami is 0-5 in Nolasco's last 5 starts. They are 0-4 in Nolasco's last 4 against the NL East. Take the Phillies.
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04-11-13 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total Domination* The Oakland A's offense was one of the worst in baseball last year and the team still managed to get into the playoffs by winning the extremely difficult AL West. The offense has been much much better so far this year. How good have they been? Oakland is first in the majors in runs scored per game at 6.44 runs per game. They obviously won't keep up that pace, but this offense is better than last year. Chris Young and Jed Lowrie were very good additions for the lineup. The Angels arguably have the best lineup in baseball with Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, and others. Jason Vargas dominated at home in Seattle, but he struggled on the road. Vargas won't have quite as friendly of a home field now, and he hasn't been good against Oakland in the past. A.J. Griffin dominated last year, but I think he comes back to earth a bit this season.
The over is 8-0 in Oakland's last 8 games overall. The over is 5-0-1 in Griffin's last 6 starts. The over is 9-0-2 in the Angels last 11 games as a favorite. The over is 4-0-1 in the Angels last 5 home games. The over is 5-0-2 in the Angels last 7 games after scoring at least 5 runs in the previous game. In all, a perfect 31-0 angle backs this play. Take the over. |
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04-10-13 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5 | 11-5 | Win | 103 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total Domination* The Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels put a lot of runners on the bases last night, and I think they will again in this one. Tom Milone has been lights out at home in his young career, but he hasn't been very good at all on the road. The Angels offense hasn't clicked perfectly just yet, but they are mighty dangerous. Joe Blanton is absolutely capable of getting lit up by anyone at this point in his career, and the A's bats are looking better this year than they did last season. The over is 7-0 in Oakland's last 7 games. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 against the AL West. The over is 3-0-2 in the Angels last 5 home games. Take the over.
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04-10-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Here we have a combination of two things working in our favor. The Twins and Royals both have a much better offense than pitching staff and both of these teams are starting guys near the bottom of their rotation in this one. Liam Hendriks was beat around all season last year, and the Royals have several guys who have had lots of success against him. Wade Davis has never been very successful in his attempts to be a starting pitcher in the majors. I think both offenses should be able to quite a bit of damage in this one. Take the over.
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04-10-13 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -134 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Francisco Giants made a massive comeback yesterday after Tim Lincecum's poor outing against the Rockies. Colorado led 5-1 early, but the Giants rallied to win 9-6. Barry Zito takes the hill for the Giants in the finale of this series. Zito has been a big moneymaker of late. He has gotten his control back lately and it has made a world of difference. The oddmakers still aren't giving him much credit. The Giants are 8-0 in Zito's last 8 home starts. They are 6-0 in his last 6 as a favorite. San Francisco is 7-0 in Zito's last 7 following a quality start in the previous appearance. The Rockies are 0-4 in Jeff Francis' last 4 against the Giants. Take San Francisco.
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04-09-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Texas Rangers OVER 10.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Tampa Bay Rays lost on a brutal call by home plate umpire Marty Foster in last night's game. I expect Joe Maddon's team to be ready to play in this one. Nick Tepesch will be making his major league debut for the Rangers. Tepesch only had a 4.28 ERA in Double A last year, so I'm not convinced he can consistently get out big league hitters right now. Roberto Hernandez will be pitching for Tampa Bay, and he has an ERA over 5 in his career against Texas. The wind tunnel effect in Texas (wind in from right) has caused a lot of high scoring games in the past and the ball should be flying well in this one. The over is 6-0-1 in the Rangers last 7 home games against a righty. The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the over.
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04-09-13 | Atlanta Braves -1.5 v. Miami Marlins | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value Play* Sometimes you can overanalyze a game. The Braves are 25-3 in Kris Medlin's last 28 starts. The Marlins will likely be the worst team in the National League this year, and their offense has been horrific this year. They have been shut out four times in the first week of the year. Atlanta's offense is very solid now with the Upton brothers hitting it well and Jason Heyward in the middle of the order. This one is just a total mismatch. The Braves have won five straight against Miami when Medlin starts, and the Marlins are much worse now than they were in those games. Take Atlanta -1.5.
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04-09-13 | New York (A): A Pettitte -115 v. Cleveland: C Carrasco | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of the Day* The New York Yankees put up 11 runs yesterday. While the Yankees offense definitely misses guys like Tex and ARod, the current lineup they are putting out there every day is better than most believe. You could make a good argument that the Yankees have the better lineup between these two teams, and in this game they'll definitely have a pitching advantage. Andy Pettitte continues to win games by hitting his spots and keeping batters guessing. Carlos Carrasco will make his first start since 2011. He missed all of last year with an injury. He had an ERA of 6.00 in Spring Training. Pettitte has had a lot of success in his career against the Indians. Cleveland is 0-8 in Carrasco's last 8 starts as a home underdog. They are 0-6 in his last 6 starts overall. The Indians are 0-6 in their last 6 against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Take the Yankees.
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04-08-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Minnesota Twins have the worst pitching staff in the American League (and probably the majors overall as well). Kansas City has been expected to rise in the AL Central over the past couple years, but it has been their pitching that has held them back each season. Kansas City's offense exploded for 25 runs in their three-game series in Philadelphia, and I do expect the Royals to score a lot of runs this year.
Minnesota's offense isn't great, but when you have Mauer, Willingham, and Morneau in the middle of the order, you are going to put together some good innings. Ervin Santana hasn't been trustworthy over the last couple years, and he was very shaky in his debut for the Royals. Kevin Correia doesn't have dominating stuff, and I expect the Royals to be able to get to him in this one. It doesn't hurt that the wind is expected to be blowing out on a Spring afternoon in Kansas City. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Take the over. |
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04-07-13 | Oakland A's v. Houston Astros UNDER 7.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Brett Anderson has the stuff to be one of the best pitcher in the American League. When Anderson is healthy he can dominate almost any lineup. He only gave up two runs in this first start of the season and he looked completely healthy. Houston has arguably the worst offense in all of baseball, and it won't surprise me a bit if Anderson complete shuts down the Astros. Lucas Harrell has quietly put together a nice stretch against Houston over the past year. Harrell had a lot of success last year despite pitching on a terrible team. He had an ERA below 2.5 at home last year. Neither offense is strong and both pitchers are consistently good. Take the under.
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04-07-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total Domination* The Arizona Diamondbacks got rid of a lot of offense in the offseason. The Diamondbacks are going to win quite a few games this year because of their pitching staff, but I suspect a lot of those games are going to stay under the total. Ian Kennedy has turned into one of the better pitchers in the National League the past couple years. He has consistently put up nice numbers against everyone. Yovani Gallardo is a solid pitcher, and his numbers against Arizona are nothing short of stellar. Gallardo owns a 1.02 ERA against the Diamondbacks in 6 career starts. Ryan Braun may miss this game again and Aramis Ramirez is definitely out, so the Brewers offense is short-handed. The under is 5-0 in Arizona's last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. The under is 4-0 in Gallardo's last 4 starts against the DBacks. The under is 4-1 in Kennedy's last 5 starts against Milwaukee. The under is 7-1-1 in Paul Nauert's (a solid under umpire with a relatively large strike zone) last 9 games behind home plate.
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04-07-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | 13-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians have been dominated so far in this series against Tampa Bay, and I don't see that changing on Sunday. David Price is absolutely dominant at home, and no one on this Indians roster has had much success at all against him. On the other side, Justin Masterson has been horrible when pitching in Tampa Bay. Masterson has an ERA of 8.44 ERA in six games at Tampa Bay. The Rays have had his number, and Price isn't likely to give up many runs in this game. Tampa Bay is almost -200 on the moneyline, and I'll never lay that kind of money in an MLB game, but the run line looks like a great value. This one has a lot of potential to get very ugly. The Rays are 5-0 in Price's last 5 against Cleveland. The Indians are 1-5 in Masterson's last 6 against Tampa Bay. Take Tampa Bay -1.5.
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04-06-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* Clayton Kershaw has put together four straight seasons with an ERA less than three. At this point, you could make the argument that Kershaw is the most dominant pitcher in all of baseball. Pittsburgh has a star in Andrew McCutchen, but the rest of their lineup is very weak. The Pirates have not been able to score more than three runs in any of their games so far this season. It's hard to imagine them scoring than a couple against Kershaw. The Dodgers are a much better team than they were at this time last year. This is a lineup that could string together quite a few hits with their star power. A.J. Burnett is one of the most inconsistent starting pitchers you'll find, and I don't see him keeping up with Kershaw. The Pirates are just 23-63 in their last 86 games against the Dodgers. Take the Dodgers -1.5.
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04-05-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 7 | 0-3 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star TGIF MLB Play of Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates have decided to take a chance on Jonathan Sanchez this year. Sanchez was awful last year for both Kansas City and Colorado. Sanchez had a 9.53 ERA in Colorado and a 7.56 ERA in Kansas City. The problem with Sanchez is his control is horrible. He can't locate the zone in crucial parts of the game, and he misses his location inside the zone a lot as well. Zack Greinke had an ERA above 5.5 this Spring. Greinke was beat up pretty good by the Pirates in his only start against them last year. A total of 7 is usually indicative of a couple Aces against light hitting teams. In this one, we get a total of 7 with two pitchers with big question marks. I like the value here on the over. Take the over.
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04-04-13 | Miami: W Leblanc v. Washington: J Zimmermann -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of the Day* Those of you who have been following my plays over the first couple days of the MLB season know that I have backed the Washington Nationals successfully in each of the first two games in this series. I'm going back to the well with Washington -1.5 again for this series finale. Miami is a terrible team this year, and I don't think the oddsmakers have a good hold on how bad they are just yet. Washington has gotten even better than they were a year ago. The Nationals haven't hit the ball at all in the first two games in this series, and yet they still covered the runline. Jordan Zimmerman is a much better pitcher than people give him credit for being. Washington is 8-0 in their last 8 against teams with a winning percentage less than 40%. They should take care of business here. Take Washington -1.5.
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04-04-13 | Kansas City Royals +115 v. Chicago White Sox | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Kansas City Royals had the best record of anyone in Spring Training this year. I'll be the first to say that record doesn't mean all that much, but the Royals are a team on the rise. They've lost the first two games in this series, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Royals finish the season with a better record than the White Sox. Jeremy Guthrie has absolutely shut down the White Sox in his career. Last year, Guthrie had a sparkling 0.30 ERA in his nearly 30 innings of work against the White Sox. Gavin Floyd is very inconsistent, and I think the Royals will be able to salvage a game from this series. The Royals are 10-1 in Guthrie's last 11 starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the White Sox. Take Kansas City.
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04-04-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates both have weak lineups. Pittsburgh's PNC Park is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, especially at this time of the season. It should be in the upper 40's with the wind blowing in during this one according to current weather reports. James McDonald has been an underrated starter for Pittsburgh over the last few years. McDonald struggled down the stretch last year, but his history is that he pitches his best in April. Travis Wood is a decent lefty, and the Pirates have struggled against lefties the past few seasons. The under is 7-0 in Pittsburgh's last 7 games. The under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Pittsburgh. The under is 4-0 in the Pirates lats 4 against the NL Central. Take the under.
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04-03-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics are two of the lightest hitting teams in the majors. Doug Eddings has the single biggest strike zone of any umpire in the Majors, and he has been an 'under' bettors best friend for many years. Joe Saunders and Tommy Milone are two lefties who try to paint on the corners a lot. That should serve them well in this one with Eddings behind the dish. Milone was dominating at home last year, and the Mariners haven't hit him well at all in the past. Saunders is a fly ball pitcher, and it's very tough to hit it out in this ballpark (especially early in the season). The under is 5-0 in Milone's last 5 starts as a favorite. The under is 5-0 in Milone's last 5 starts against Seattle. Take the under.
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04-03-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Colorado Rockies are a team that I expect to be playing a lot of overs with this year. A combination of an impressive offense and a horrendous pitching staff should lead to a lot of high scoring games for Colorado. The Rockies have Juan Nicasio on the hill tonight, and he has yet to prove anything in his short MLB career. Nicasio faces a talented Brewers lineup tonight. Peralta starts for Milwaukee and he is a talented young prospect, but I don't think he is polished just yet. The Rockies aren't an easy lineup to ease into the Majors against. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The over is 5-0 in home plate umpire Tony Randazzo's last 5 games behind home plate. Take the over.
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04-03-13 | Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins are going to be a terrible team in every aspect of the game this year. Miami had an extremely disappointing year last year, and this year they are going to be much much worse. Kevin Slowey missed all of last season and he was a borderline number four or five starter in 2011, but he is now the number two starter for Miami. He'll go up against Gio Gonzalez, who is arguably one of the top six or eight starters in the National League now. The Nationals bullpen got even better in the offseason, and the lineup is deeper now. Bryce Harper is quickly blossoming into an elite hitter. This is a mismatch in every sense. Washington is 8-0 in their last 8 games against a team with a winning percentage under 40%. Take Washington -1.5.
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04-02-13 | Seattle Mariners +130 v. Oakland A's | 7-1 | Win | 130 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners lineup is quite a bit better this year than it was last season. The addition of Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales makes the middle of the order much more dangerous. Seattle played surprisingly good baseball late in the year last year. The Athletics are a good team, but they are bound to come back to earth a bit compared to last year's amazing run. Jarrod Parker had an ERA over 7 in Spring Training. I like Parker, but I also like Iwakuma who will start for the Mariners here. Early in the season sometimes you just have to bet a price. The Mariners shouldn't be this big of a dog. Take Seattle.
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04-02-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jaime Garcia has been a very good pitcher at home, but his road numbers in his career aren't very good at all. In fact, he has a 4.47 ERA in his career on the road. Arizona's lineup isn't all that good this year, but Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open and low humidity early in the year. The ball flies very well in this park with the roof open. Trevor Cahill struggled with the roof open last year, and the Cardinals have one of the best lineups in the National League. The over is 9-2 in Garcia's last 11 road starts against a team with a winning record. The over is 7-1 in the Cardinals last 8 as a road underdog. Take the over.
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04-02-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Colorado Rockies are going to be one of the worst teams in the National League this year, but it won't be because of a bad offense. With Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in the middle of the lineup, this team is going to score runs. The problem is they have an awful starting rotation and very shaky bullpen. Marco Estrada pitched pretty well last year for the Brewers, but I think he comes back to earth a bit this year. At the same time, the Brewers have some a good lineup with Braun, Weeks, Ramirez, and others. Jorge De La Rosa has never been a dominating pitcher, and he doesn't have that put away pitch. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The over is 4-0 in De La Rosa's last 4 starts. The over is 11-1 in Estrada's last 12 starts against a team with a losing record. Take the over.
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04-01-13 | SEA MARINERS v. Oakland A's -104 | 2-0 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Opening Day Play of the Day* The Oakland Athletics never did get all that much respect from the oddsmakers last year despite a very impressive season in 2012. Oakland went 94-68 and won the AL West when most believed they would finish with somewhere around 70 wins. The Athletics have an amazing pitching staff. Offensively, they certainly aren't great, but they do come up with timely hits at home. King Felix will start for the Mariners here, but Brett Anderson is being overlooked by many right now. Anderson is healthy and he has been lights out at home in his career. The Mariners have one of the worst offenses in baseball, and at nearly even money I like the A's here. Seattle is 0-6 in Hernandez's last 6 starts. They are 0-5 in his last 5 against the AL West. The Mariners are 0-7 in their last 7 games against Oakland. They are 0-4 in their last 4 at Oakland. The Athletics are 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 starts as a favorite. In all, a 26-0 angle backs this play. Take Oakland.
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04-01-13 | Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Miami Marlins will likely be the worst team in the National League this year. It's hard to find any one area where the team won't be terrible. They have a terrible starting rotation and bullpen, and other than Giancarlo Stanton they don't have any consistent hitters. On the other side, Washington went into the 2012 playoffs with more wins than anyone in baseball. How will they be in 2013? On paper the team got a little better in the offseason. I'm not a big fan of playing the run line on the favorite, but this is a total mismatch in every sense. Strasburg should have a great year, and the Nationals absolutely have the ability to blow out a terrible Marlins team. The Marlins were 15-36 in their last 51 road games last year, and they are much worse this season. Take Washington -1.5.
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10-28-12 | San Francisco Giants +139 v. Detroit Tigers | 4-3 | Win | 139 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Giants/Tigers World Series CASH* The San Francisco Giants have stormed out to a 3-0 lead in this year's World Series. The Tigers have put up a grand total of 3 runs in three games so far this series. It won't get any easier on the Tigers lineup when Matt Cain starts Game 4 for the Giants. Cain is the ace of the staff, and he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last few years. Max Scherzer starts for the Tigers. Scherzer has been great of late, but he has been inconsistent in his career. The Giants have all the momentum right now. The odds are heavily in Detroit's favor because so many people think there is no way the Giants will sweep the series in Detroit. With the better pitcher and an underrated offense, I like these odds on the Giants. The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games against a right-handed pitcher. The Tigers are 0-6 in their last 6 World Series games. Take the Giants.
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10-25-12 | Detroit Tigers v. San Francisco Giants +111 | 0-2 | Win | 111 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Tigers/Giants CA$H* The San Francisco Giants were a big underdog in Game One, but they got the job done behind Pablo Sandoval and Barry Zito. Madison Bumgarner hasn't pitched well of late, but I think people are jumping ship too quickly. Bumgarner has a 3.00 ERA and a 10-5 record at home this year. The Tigers hit just .250 against lefties, and Bumgarner is an above average left-handed pitcher. Doug Fister has been very good this year, but he was 4-7 on the road this season. The Giants offense is much better than most people realize. Posey is a beast and with Sandoval and Pence around him, this offense is actually quite good. The Tigers bullpen is a major weakness, while the Giants have one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 World Series home games. The Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 World Series road games. Take San Francisco.
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10-12-12 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7 | 9-7 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Cardinals/Nationals Game 5 Total* It all comes to down to this game for the Cardinals and Nationals. The Nationals had the best record in the National League this year largely due to having the best pitching staff in the league. Gio Gonzalez won 21 games, and he has been a rock for this team all year. Gonzalez has a spectacular 2.38 ERA at home this year. Adam Wainwright pitches for the Cardinals. Wainwright has CY Young type stuff, as he has shown before. Wainwright has rounded into form as he got healthier later in the year. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 7 of his last 10 starts. Wainwright has pitched in two straight games (both in the last two weeks) against the Nationals and allowed 2 runs total. In a deciding game like this, the best relievers will be used. Both offenses have been struggling of late, and this is a pitcher's ballpark. Look for a low scoring game. Take the under.
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10-11-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Cincinnati Reds -116 | 6-4 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Giants/Reds Game 5 Winner* The Cincinnati Reds took the first two games in San Francisco easily, but the Giants have bounced back to win two straight in Cincinnati. It all comes to a deciding Game Five in Cincinnati Thursday afternoon. Mat Latos will be on the hill for the Reds against Matt Cain for the Giants. Cain is definitely one of the best pitchers in baseball, and I don't normally like going against him. However, this is a price that I believe is a solid value. Several Reds hitters have had success against Cain in the past. Ludwick, Bruce, and Votto have all hit Cain well. Mat Latos has a stellar 2.19 ERA in his career against the Giants. Latos has an ERA under 1 in his last three starts. The Reds have the better lineup from top to bottom, and they have the best bullpen in baseball. The Giants are 2-7 in Cain's last 9 against the Reds. The Reds are 15-3 in Latos' last 18 home starts. Take the Reds.
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10-10-12 | Baltimore Orioles +1.5 v. New York Yankees | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Orioles/Yankees CASH* Miguel Gonzalez has been a huge pleasant surprise since coming up from the minors. Gonzalez has only had one really bad start in 15 starts this year. He beat the Yankees twice at Yankee Stadium in the past three months. The Orioles have something really special going on right now. I don't expect Showalter's team to be scared going into Yankee Stadium. Granderson, Teixeira, Cano, and Swisher haven't gotten a hit thus far against Gonzalez. In what I think is pretty likely to be a low scoring game, it's very hard to lay 1.5 runs on the Yankees. Baltimore is 7-2 in Gonzalez's last 9 road starts. I like the value on the Orioles +1.5 here.
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10-02-12 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* Chase Field becomes a completely different park when the roof is open. Arizona's hot dry weather really helps the baseball fly well. At gametime tonight, the temperature is expected to be 97 degrees with 10% humidity. The roof is scheduled to be open. We also have two pitchers who have struggled of late. Chacin has a 4.78 ERA this year and Corbin has a 4.77 ERA this year. Corbin has a terrible 8.36 ERA in his last 3 starts. Both of these teams have the ability to put up a bunch of runs. The over is 6-0 in the Rockies last 6 against a lefty. The over is 6-0 in the DBacks last 6 following a loss. The over is 6-0 in Jerry Meals (umpire) last 6 games behind home plate. The over is 5-0-1 in Corbin's last 6 starts. In all, a 23-0 angle backing the over. Take the over in this one.
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09-28-12 | Tampa Bay Rays -106 v. Chicago White Sox | 1-3 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Tampa Bay Rays have won eight straight games. They are still two games behind in the AL Wild Card race, but they absolutely have a shot if they just keep winning. Chicago has lost 8 of their last 9, and they have now fallen two games behind Detroit in the AL Central. The White Sox aren't doing the little things well right now. Gavin Floyd is just a mediocre pitcher who almost always ends with an ERA around 4.5. Jeremy Hellickson has top of the rotation stuff, and he has been rolling of late. Hellickson has a 1.84 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 games. The White Sox are 0-6 in Floyd's last 6 as an underdog. Take Tampa Bay.
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09-28-12 | Houston Astros v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Play SMASHER* The Milwaukee Brewers are still mathematically alive in the NL Wild Card race, and after last year's craziness they will definitely fight to the end. Milwaukee is much better at home, and here they get by far the worst team in baseball. Houston is a dreadful 16-59 on the road this year. Edgar Gonzalez pitches here for Houston, and he has never been able to stay in the majors for long. The Brewers have a very good lineup with Weeks, Braun, Hart, Lucroy, and others. Yovani Gallardo gets the start for Milwaukee, and he has been awesome against Houston in his career. Here's a very interesting statistic for you. In Gallardo's 15 career starts against Houston, the Brewers have outscored the Astros 114 runs to 40. The Brewers runline is 13-2 in his starts against Houston. This Houston team is as bad as ever and the Brewers need this game in a big way. Look for a beatdown in this one. Take Milwaukee -1.5.
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09-27-12 | Tampa Bay Rays -105 v. Chicago White Sox | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Tampa Bay Rays and the Chicago White Sox are headed in different directions right now. Chicago is 1-7 in their last 8, and they have now lost first place in the AL Central. The Rays have won seven straight games, and they are still in the AL Wild Card race. The Rays closed hard last year, and they are doing the same this season. James Shields started the year slowly, but he has been pitching great of late. Shields has 9 quality starts in his last 10 starts overall, and he has an ERA under 2 in his last five starts. Jake Peavy has been inconsistent of late, and the White Sox bullpen isn't good. Tampa Bay is 7-0 in their last 7 games. They are 6-0 in Shields' last 6 as a favorite. The White Sox are 0-6 in Peavy's last 6 starts as an underdog. Take Tampa Bay.
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09-26-12 | Seattle Mariners v. Los Angeles Angels -138 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Baltimore Orioles loss yesterday gave the Los Angeles Angels even more reason to be hopeful in their AL Wild Card chase. The Angels trail the Orioles by 2.5 and the A's by 2 games. There isn't a team in baseball playing better right now than the Angels, and last year showed that this kind of deficit can easily be made up in the last few days. King Felix hasn't looked sharp of late. Hernandez has a 7.02 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Angels have hit him well in the past, with guys such as Hunter and Trout having a lot of success. C.J. Wilson has been rounding into form of late, and the Mariners lineup simply isn't very good. The Angels need this win badly, and I think they'll get it. The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing record. The Mariners are 0-4 in Hernandez's last 4 starts. Take Los Angeles.
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09-25-12 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Boston Red Sox lineup certainly isn't what it was at the beginning of the season. Dustin Pedroia is the only real star left in the Red Sox batting order. David Price is a AL CY Young candidate this year. Price has a 2.27 ERA in six starts at Fenway Park. On the other side, Clay Buchholz has been pitching very well of late. Buchholz has a 1.99 ERA in his last three starts. His career ERA against the Rays is 2.52 in 13 starts. The under is 6-1 in the Red Sox last 7 home games. Look for a pitcher's duel here. Take the under.
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09-24-12 | Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Detroit Tigers have closed to within half a game of the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central standings. The White Sox have lost four in a row, and Detroit is 7-3 in their last 10. Who better to have on the mound in a pressure situation like this than Justin Verlander? Last year's American League MVP should come up big for his team in such a huge game. Verlander has thrown two straight shutouts before this contest. Luke Hochevar pitches for the Royals, and he has an ERA over 6 in his career against Detroit. The pitching mismatch here is huge, and the Tigers need this game in a big way. The Tigers are 41-11 in Verlander's last 52 home starts. Look for Detroit to come up with a big win here. Take Detroit -1.5.
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09-22-12 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals -125 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Cleveland Indians seem to have given up on the season. Cleveland is 12-40 in their last 52 games. The Indians have struggled in a big way all year against left-handed pitchers. Cleveland has a team batting average of just .220 against lefties. Will Smith is a solid young lefty for Kansas City. Unlike the Indians, the Royals are actually playing well late in the season. Ubaldo Jimenez has a 6.95 ERA on the road this season. The Royals hit right-handed pitchers well, and I don't think Jimenez will get very deep into this game. The Indians are 0-9 in Jimenez's last 9 road starts. The Indians are 0-6 in their last 6 meetings with Kansas City. Take the Royals.
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09-21-12 | San Diego Padres v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star TGIF MLB Bookie BEATDOWN* The San Diego Padres have played surprisingly good baseball over the last couple months. The Padres are 38-25 in their last 63 games. The Padres offense has been manufacturing runs and hitting well with runners in scoring position. Ryan Vogelsong has completely fallen apart over his last few starts. Vogelsong has a 12.34 ERA in his last three starts. He has only one quality start in his last seven starts. Casey Kelly is a good prospect for the Padres, but he has been inconsistent so far. The Giants have scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 10 games. The over is 8-0-1 in Vogelsong's last 9 starts as a favorite. The over is 7-0 in Vogelsong's last 7 against a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0-1 in Vogelsong's last 7 starts on 4 days rest. The over is 5-0 in Vogelsong's last 5 against the NL West. Take the over.
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09-20-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Washington Nationals -131 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Los Angeles Dodgers have been surprisingly bad of late. The offense is extremely inconsistent, and the bullpen has fallen apart over the last month or so. Washington is one game away from clinching a spot in the postseason, and I think they are itching to do it as soon as possible. Ryan Detwiler has been amazing at home this year with a 2.67 ERA. Chris Capuano has been good this year, but he has struggled a bit on the road (4.30 ERA). The Nationals are 6-0 in Detwiler's last 6 starts following a team loss. The Nationals are 5-0 in Detwiler's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 Thursday games. The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 Thursday games. Look for the Nationals to clinch a postseason berth in this one. Take Washington.
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09-19-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Cleveland Indians OVER 9 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Minnesota Twins lineup is hitting well right now. Minnesota is actually as healthy as they have been all year. With Mauer, Morneau, and Willingham in the middle of the order this lineup is solid. The Minnesota pitching staff has been horrible all year, and that hasn't changed of late. Liam Hendriks starts in this one for Minnesota, and he is 0-7 with a 6.1 ERA this season. The Indians have heated up a bit over the last few days. Zach McAllister starts for Cleveland. McAllister has been struggling of late, and he has given up 11 runs in just 4 and 2/3 innings against the Twins so far this year. Sam Holbrook is the best 'over' umpire in the business because of his small strike zone, and he is behind the dish here. The over is 7-1 in Hendriks' last 8 road starts. The over is 6-1 in McAllister's last 7 as a home favorite. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two in Cleveland. Take the over.
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09-18-12 | Milwaukee Brewers -124 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a very difficult spot here. Their game last night with the Chicago Cubs didn't end until 2:30 AM Eastern time because of a long rain delay. While the Pirates will be traveling back to Pittsburgh very late, the Brewers had all day Monday in Pittsburgh to relax. A couple months ago it would have seemed strange to say this, but Milwaukee and Pittsburgh now have an identical 74-72 record. Both teams are only 2.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race. The Brewers have been hot of late, while the Pirates have been scuffling. Yovani Gallardo has had tons of success against Pittsburgh in the past. A.J. Burnett has been good this year, but slightly shaky of late. The Pirates are 0-5 in their last 5 as a +110 to +150 dog. The Pirates are 0-5 in Burnett's last 5 starts. The Brewers are 12-1 in Gallardo's last 13 starts against Pittsburgh. The Brewers are 7-0 in Gallardo's last 7 against the NL Central. Take Milwaukee.
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09-17-12 | Baltimore Orioles -116 v. Seattle Mariners | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Baltimore Orioles are fighting hard to keep pace with the New York Yankees in the American League East. Losing Nick Markakis to an injury definitely hurt this offense, but I expect Baltimore to continue winning close games. Buck Showalter has done an amazing job with this team. Chris Tillman is 7-2 with a 3.39 ERA this year, and he has beaten the Mariners twice already this year. Hector Noesi hasn't been good as a starter for Seattle. The Mariners are 0-5 in his last 5 starts. The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Orioles are 4-0 in Tillman's last 4 road starts. They are 5-0 in their last 5 against Seattle. Take Baltimore.
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09-15-12 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Seattle Mariners hit the ball much better away from home. Texas is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors. Scott Feldman has an ERA of about 5 this year, and he is very inconsistent. On the other side, Jason Vargas starts for the Mariners. Vargas is good at home, but struggles on the road. The Rangers hit .282 as a team against lefties. Paul Schreiber is the home plate umpire, and he has one of the smallest strike zones in the majors. Look for both teams to put up quite a few runs here. Take the over.
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09-14-12 | New York Mets v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Bookie BEATDOWN* The New York Mets have lost 7 of their last 8 games. Only two of those losses came by a single run. The Brewers have won 6 of their last 8 games, and only one of those games was decided by a single run. The Mets seemed to have packed it in for the year, while the Brewers have gotten red hot at the right time. Milwaukee has a legitimate chance to pick up a Wild Card berth if they keep playing this well. Michael Fiers is one of the best young pitchers in the majors, and his ERA is 2.6 at home this year. Jon Niese is solid, but the Brewers have been crushing lefties of late. Milwaukee is 8-1 in their last 9 against a lefty. The Mets are 3-8 in Niese's last 11 starts. Take Milwaukee -1.5.
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09-13-12 | Kansas City Royals v. Minnesota Twins OVER 9 | 3-4 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Kansas City Royals offense is firing on all cylinders right now. Kansas City has scored 6 runs or more in 6 of their last 10 games overall. They'll be facing Liam Hendriks in this one. Hendriks is 0-7 with a 6.20 ERA. I like Kansas City's chances of putting up a big number again. Luis Mendoza has a 7.63 ERA in his last 3 starts. He seems to have hit a wall of late. Look for the Twins to be able to score several here as well. The over is 5-0 in KC's last 5 games following a win. The over is 4-0 in Ramirez's last 4 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the Twins last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. Take the over.
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09-12-12 | Seattle Mariners +115 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 3-2 | Win | 115 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* Ricky Romero has been awful this season, and he has been even worse of late. Romero has given up at least 6 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 home starts. On the year, he has a home ERA of 6.42. Seattle certainly doesn't have a terrific lineup, but they hit the ball much better on the road than at home. The Mariners have a good history against Romero as well. Kevin Millwood is a pretty consistent pitcher. Generally he is good for 5 or 6 innings of about 3 earned runs allowed. The Blue Jays are 1-12 in Romero's last 13 starts. They are 1-5 in Romero's last 6 against Seattle. At plus money I like the Mariners here.
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09-11-12 | Detroit Tigers v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Doug Fister and Jake Peavy have both pitched very well this year. Fister has a 3.54 ERA on the season and Peavy has a 3.22 ERA. The wind is expected to be blowing in from right field with cooler than usual temperatures on Tuesday night. Detroit's bats have been cold of late. Brian Gorman is behind the plate, and he has one of the biggest strike zones of any umpire in the majors. The under is 8-0 in Fister's last 8 road starts with a total of 8.5 or less. The under is 8-1 in Peavy's last 9 starts on 5 days of rest. Take the under here.
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09-11-12 | Cleveland Indians v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Cleveland Indians have mailed it in for this season, and Ubaldo Jimenez has been awful on the road all year (road ERA over 7 this year). There is no reason to think he'll start pitching well in a hitter's ballpark against the best lineup in baseball. Matt Harrison has been consistently very good for the Rangers this season. Texas is 23-4 in Harrison's last 27 games against a team with a losing record, so he takes care of business against teams he should beat. The Indians are 0-8 in Jimenez's last 8 road starts. Take Texas -1.5.
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09-11-12 | New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Yankees/Red Sox Total* Both of these offenses aren't even close to what they were earlier this year. The Yankees are without Mark Teixeira. The Red Sox are left with only two stars in the lineup (Ellsbury and Pedroia) after most of their team got hurt or got traded. Hiroki Kuroda doesn't get enough credit from the oddsmakers. Kuroda has a great 3.14 ERA this year. Jon Lester has been bad this year overall, but he has been much better of late. Lester has a quality start in 3 of his last 4 outings. The under is 23-5-2 in Lester's last 30 as an underdog. The under is 6-0 in Kuroda's last 6 as a road favorite. Take the under.
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09-10-12 | Detroit Tigers -103 v. Chicago White Sox | 1-6 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Detroit Tigers were swept out of Los Angeles this weekend. Detroit continually has been beating the White Sox in their head-to-head matchups, but then losing the AL Central lead by blowing it against other teams. Here is another chance for the Tigers to catch up in a head-to-head meeting with Chicago. Rick Porcello has owned the White Sox in the past, and I think he can keep that going here. Both Adam Dunn and Kevin Youkilis are expected to miss this game, which hurts the White Sox lineup quite a bit. Jose Quintana seems to have hit a wall of late. The Tigers are 6-0 in Porcello's last 6 against the White Sox. Detroit is 29-9 in their last 38 against the White Sox. Take Detroit.
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09-10-12 | Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins -115 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Cleveland Indians seemed to have mailed it in for the season. Asdrubal Cabrera will probably miss this game, and he is arguably the Indians best hitter. The Twins are the healthier team, and they have been playing well at home. Sam Deduno had one terrible start in Texas, but otherwise he has been very good this year. Justin Masterson has an ERA above 6 on the road this year. The Indians are 5-21 in their last 26 games against a right-handed pitcher. Cleveland is 0-6 in their last 6 with umpire D.J. Reyburn behind the plate. The Twins are 4-0 in Deduno's last 4 home starts. Take Minnesota.
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09-09-12 | Houston Astros v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Houston Astros have been absolutely horrible on the road this year. They won the first game of this three-game set with the Reds, but the Reds won yesterday. I fully expect the Reds to take care of business in this matchup Sunday. Cincinnati has Ace Johnny Cueto on the hill here. Cueto has been dominating during the daytime this year. Cueto is 17-7 wuth a 2.58 ERA overall. During the day, he is 11-1 with a 1.87 ERA. Edgar Gonzalez pitches for the Astros. Gonzalez has bounced around the minors for years, and he doesn't have overpowering stuff. The Reds lineup is solid, and they are a good defensive team. Houston is 9-42 in their last 51 road games. The Reds are 8-0 in Cueto's last 8 Sunday starts. This is a mismatch. Take the Reds -1.5.
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09-08-12 | Atlanta: K Medlen -1.5 v. New York (N): J Hefner | 11-3 | Win | 106 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Atlanta Braves have thrown three straight shutouts. It really is amazing to think that a team could go 27 innings in a row without giving up a single run. On Saturday, they'll have Kris Medlen on the hill. Medlen has started seven games for the Braves this year. He has allowed just four runs in seven starts. The Mets offense isn't hitting very well right now. In fact, the Mets as a team are 1-11 in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record. Amazingly, the Braves are 20-1 in Medlen's last 21 starts. This one shouldn't be close. Take Atlanta -1.5.
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09-07-12 | Los Angeles: J Beckett +108 v. San Francisco: T Lincecum | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* Josh Beckett appears to be far more motivated now that he has been traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. There is little doubt that Beckett has some of the best stuff of any pitcher in the majors. When he is focused, he can dominate as well as anyone. Tim Lincecum has struggled all year. He has been slightly better of late, but he still isn't up to par. The Dodgers clearly have the better lineup with Victorino, Kemp, Ethier, Ramirez, and Gonzalez all in the middle of the order. The Dodgers are 11-5 in their last 16 road games. Take the Dodgers.
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09-07-12 | New York (A): P Hughes v. Baltimore: W Chen -106 | 8-5 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Yankees/Orioles Guaranteed Cash* The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles sit tied atop the AL East standings on September 7th. It's really hard to believe, but it is absolutely the truth. Wei-Yin Chen has pitched well twice this season against the Yankees. Baltimore is playing with an amazing amount of confidence right now. Mark Reynolds is on fire, and Chris Davis continues to hit for power. The Orioles have hit Phil Hughes very well in the past, and with the team on a roll right now I think that continues here. The Yankees are 3-13 in Hughes' last 16 road starts against a team with a winning record. They are 0-5 in his last 5 road starts overall. The Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 home games. Take Baltimore.
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09-07-12 | Miami: J Turner v. Washington: Strasburg -1.5 | 9-7 | Loss | -117 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Washington Nationals are really on a roll right now. Washington is 13-3 in their last 16 home games. I played the run line with them the last two days against the Cubs and won, and I believe this is another solid value. Justin Turner hasn't proven he is ready for the big leagues. The Tigers brought him up to the majors too soon, and he struggles with his command still now that he is in Miami. Stephen Strasburg will be pitching in his last home start this year. Strasburg is 15-6 with a 2.94 ERA this year. The Nationals lineup is healthy and hitting better than ever right now, while the Marlins are very banged up. Washington is 6-0 in their last 6 as a favorite of at least -201. The Nationals are 5-0 in Strasburg's last 5 starts on 4 days rest. The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 against the NL East. Take Washington -1.5.
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09-06-12 | Chicago (N): J Germano v. Washington: Zimmermann -1.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Washington Nationals won 9-1 as my 5 Star Top Play yesterday. The Nationals are just a much better team all around than the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have been decent at home, but awful on the road. Chicago is 17-51 away from home this year. The Cubs are 8-27 in their last 35 games. Jordan Zimmerman is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game right now. He has been a little shaky the last few starts, but this Cubs offense should be the perfect team to get on track against. Justin Germano hasn't proven to be a starter in the majors for long before, and I expect the red hot Nationals to get to him early. The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 home games. Take the Nationals -1.5.
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09-05-12 | Texas Rangers -1.5 v. Kansas City Royals | 7-6 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Texas Rangers have the best record in the American League. Texas has the deepest lineup in baseball, and they are great against lefties. On the year, Texas is hitting .283 with a .344 on-base-percentage against lefties. Everett Teaford doesn't normally start, and he is being thrown into a very difficult starting spot here against Texas. Ryan Dempster has been dealing of late. Dempster has a 1.35 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Rangers are 26-12 in their last 38 meetings with Kansas City. Take Texas -1.5.
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09-05-12 | Chicago (N): C Volstad v. Washington: G Gonzalez -1.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Play SMASHER* The Chicago Cubs have been dreadful on the road this year. The Cubs are 17-50 away from the friendly confined this season. Washington has the best record in baseball right now, and I think this matchup is a great one for them. Gio Gonzalez has been awesome all year, and the Cubs are terrible against lefties. On the other hand, Chris Volstad has an ERA over 6 this season. He has been slightly better in his last three starts, but those lineups weren't as good as the Nationals. This one looks like a major mismatch all the way around. The Cubs are 0-6 in Volstad's last 6 road starts. The Nationals are 8-0 in Gonzalez's last 8 starts against the NL Central. Take Washington -1.5.
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09-05-12 | New York (N): R Dickey v. St Louis: Wainwright UNDER 7 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals have both been struggling offensively of late. R.A. Dickey is 17-4 with a 2.63 ERA this year for a bad Mets team. He has a sparkling 0.83 ERA in his last 3 starts. Adam Wainwright has been much better of late. Wainwright is starting to look like himself once again. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of his last 8 games. On get away day, we may see some stars sitting here. The under is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in Dickey's last 4 starts. The under is 3-0-1 in Wainwright's last 4 home starts. Take the under.
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09-04-12 | New York Yankees +120 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Play of the Day* The New York Yankees lead the Baltimore Orioles by only one game and the Tampa Bay Rays by two games in the AL East. I still believe the Yankees are the best team in the division, and they are likely to turn this around sooner rather than later. Alex Cobb isn't a dominant pitcher, and he has been lit up on multiple occasions this year. The Yankees offense is clearly capable of breaking out at any moment, and I think this is a good opportunity. Freddy Garcia has great career numbers against the Rays lineup. I like the Yankees as a value play here at some solid plus money. Take New York.
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09-03-12 | Boston Red Sox v. Seattle Mariners +101 | 1-4 | Win | 101 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Boston Red Sox absolutely look like a team that has given up on the season. Boston has had terrible team chemistry all year, and now they don't have a healthy lineup either. Who would have guessed that the Seattle Mariners would have a better record than the Red Sox this late in the year? Seattle is doing it with solid pitching and timely hitting. Jason Vargas has a 2.63 ERA at home this year. Clay Buchholz has been inconsistent all year. The Red Sox are 0-7 in their last 7 road games. The Mariners are 11-0 in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing record. Take Seattle.
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09-03-12 | Milwaukee Brewers -127 v. Miami Marlins | 3-7 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers took a long time do it, but they are finally playing some very good baseball of late. Michael Fiers is one of the best young pitchers in the game. His deceptive delivery makes him tough to pick up on, especially for teams who haven't seen much of him. Miami is playing bad baseball right now, and their lineup has been hit hard by injuries. Ricky Nolasco is a very inconsistent pitcher, and this Brewers team has been hitting it very well. The Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a favorite. Milwaukee is 5-0 in their last 5 against a right-handed pitcher. They are 4-0 in their last 4 against Miami. The Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 against the NL Central. Take Milwaukee.
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09-03-12 | Cleveland: C Kluber v. Detroit: A Sanchez -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Detroit Tigers pulled into a tie with the Chicago White Sox last night in the AL Central. While conventional wisdom may be that this is a letdown spot for Detroit, I don't think it is against a poor Cleveland team. The Indians are in free fall right now. Cleveland is 13-39 in their last 52 games. Detroit is 25-6 in their last 31 home games. Anibal Sanchez is a solid number three starter for the Tigers. Kluber has struggled on the road in his young MLB career. The Tigers have a great opportunity here. Expect them to win comfortably. Take Detroit -1.5.
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09-02-12 | Boston: Matsuzaka v. Oakland: B Anderson -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 131 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Boston Red Sox are a complete mess right now. They lost 20-2 to Oakland Friday, and still didn't put up a fight in yesterday's game. Brett Anderson is a very good pitcher when healthy. He has allowed one run in 14 innings pitched this season. I don't expect a depleted Red Sox lineup to score many against Anderson. Dice-K had a good start last time out, but I still don't think he can be trusted. He struggles too much with his control and doesn't pitch deep into games. Take Oakland -1.5.
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09-02-12 | Tampa Bay: D Price -1.5 v. Toronto: R Romero | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special. This is a classic pitching mismatch. Ricky Romero has a 5.50 ERA this year, and his control has been awful. David Price has been one of the most consistent starts in all of baseball. Tampa Bay's lineup is much improved with a health Evan Mongoria. The Blue Jays' lineup has been hit hard by injuries. The Rays are 6-0 in Price's last 6 starts at Toronto. They are 12-2 in his last 14 overall against Toronto. The Jays are 1-11 in Romero's last 12 starts. Take Tampa Bay -1.5.
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