Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-22-12 | St.Louis Cardinals -130 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Pittsburgh Pirates beat the St. Louis Cardinals 2-0 last night. St. Louis is the far superior team here, and they need this game to win the series. Kyle Lohse is in great form right now. He has allowed only 10 hits in more than 20 innings pitched this year. The Pirates are hitting juts .193 against right-handed pitching this year. The Cardinals are batting .314 against lefties. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Lohse's last 4 starts. I think this is a solid value on the Cardinals ML.
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04-22-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Francisco Liriano has been a disaster so far this year. He has a WHIP well over 2, and everyone who has seen him has been teeing off on his pitches. Tampa Bay is hitting the ball well so far this year. Jeff Niemann is a solid pitcher, but the Twins should be able to score some here. Mark Wegner is a favorable umpire for the over because of his small strike zone. The over is 6-0 in Liriano's last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in Tampa Bay's last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 games. Take the over.
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04-21-12 | Atlanta Braves -122 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Arizona Diamondbacks are missing their three best offensive players right now. Stephen Drew has been on the DL all year, but now Chris Young and Justin Upton are injured. Take these three away and this offense just isn't very good. They have been blasted two games in a row by the Braves to start this series. Atlanta has scored 9, 14, 10, and 9 runs in their last 4 games. I think it is safe to say the Atlanta offense has come alive. The Braves are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a -110 to -150 favorite. Atlanta is 4-0 in their last 4 against a left-hander. They are 7-0 in Tommy Hanson's last 7 starts against the NL West. The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games against Arizona. In all, this is a 24-0 winning angle. Take the Braves here.
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04-21-12 | St Louis: Westbrook -125 v. Pittsburgh: A Burnett | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error* The St. Louis Cardinals took game one of this series in Pittsburgh. The Cardinals have several injuries on offense, but they still have a much better offense than the Pirates. Jake Westbrook is a streaky pitcher, and he has his sinker working very well right now. Kevin Correia is worse when pitching at home, and the Pirates are 0-5 in his last 5 home starts. The Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games at Pittsburgh. The Cardinals aren't getting enough respect from the oddsmakers. Take the Cardinals.
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04-21-12 | San Francisco Giants v. New York Mets UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Francisco Giants do not have a strong offense. This team will likely struggle to score all year. In the Giants last 8 games, none of them have gone above 7 runs in total. San Francisco's pitching staff is very good. Ryan Vogelsong is still underrated by the oddsmakers. The under is 20-7 in his last 27 starts. Mike Pelfrey is tough to get a read on, but I expect him to be helped in a big way by Doug Eddings. Eddings is the single best 'under' umpire in baseball because of his huge strike zone. The under is 4-1-1 in Pelfrey's last 6 starts against the Giants. Take the under.
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04-20-12 | Philadelphia: C Hamels -126 v. San Diego: E Volquez | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* I rate Cole Hamels as a better pitcher than Edinson Volquez by a large amount. Hamels is a much more consistent pitcher, and Volquez almost always has a bad inning or two. Hamels has been absolutely spectacular at PetCo Park in his career. In 5 starts he has allowed just 5 runs. He has a sparkling ERA of 1.23. The Padres lineup is terrible and while the Phillies lineup isn't good at this point, they are still better than the Padres by a solid amount. The Phillies are 25-4 in their last 29 games at San Diego. The Phillies are 7-1 in Cole Hamels' last 8 starts against the NL West. Take the Phillies.
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04-20-12 | Atlanta Braves -113 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Line Error* The Arizona Diamondbacks are a completely different team without Chris Young and Justin Upton in the lineup. This offense simply can't afford to be missing its best two hitters. Atlanta started the season slowly on offense, but the Braves are smashing the baseball right now. Brandon Beachy and Trevor Cahill are fairly equal pitchers in my book, but the Braves have the huge offensive advantage here. The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 meetings with Arizona. Take Atlanta.
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04-20-12 | St Louis: L Lynn -124 v. Pittsburgh: C Morton | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Lance Lynn is a talented young pitcher who is really coming into his own right now. Lynn is throwing the ball well and he seems to have good control of all of his pitches. The Pirates are 19-40 in Charlie Morton's last 49 starts. Even without Lance Berkman in the lineup, the Cardinals have two or three hitters who are better than anyone in the Pirates lineup. The Cardinals are being underrated by the oddsmakers right now. St. Louis is 6-2 in their last 8 against the Pirates. Take the Cardinals here.
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04-19-12 | Philadelphia: V Worley -120 v. San Diego: J Wieland | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night Moneyline Play* The San Diego Padres may well have the worst offense in baseball this year. San Diego struggles to put up 2 or 3 runs, especially in their home ballpark where pitcher's can get away with mistakes. The Phillies don't have a great offense now, but they still have a big edge on the Padres. The Phillies are a stunning 24-4 in their last 28 games at San Diego. Vance Worley is a solid pitcher who I believe is underrated by many. The Phillies are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the NL West. Take Philadelphia.
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04-19-12 | Atlanta Braves -111 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Atlanta Braves have found their hitting stroke of late. Atlanta started the season struggling in a big way, but this team has a pretty solid offense overall. Mike Minor should have a nice season on the mound for Atlanta. The Diamondbacks are without Chris Young and Justin Upton right now. Arizona's lineup certainly takes a big hit without their two most powerful hitters in the lineup. Josh Collmenter looked terrible all Spring and his ERA is above 12 this season so far. Atlanta should be favored by more here. Take Atlanta.
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04-19-12 | Cincinnati: B Arroyo v. St Louis: Wainwright OVER 7.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Bronson Arroyo is definitely a fly ball pitcher. Arroyo gave up a ridiculous 46 home runs last year. The wind will be blowing out nicely at Saint Louis Thursday afternoon. The Cardinals have plenty of guys who are capable of going deep. Adam Wainwright doesn't look right on the mount just yet. The Reds offense has struggled this year, but they have too much talent to put up nothing offensively every single game. Look for them to get going a bit against Wainwright here. Take the over.
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04-18-12 | Cincinnati Reds v. St.Louis Cardinals -128 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Moneyline Top Play* The St. Louis Cardinals took down the Reds in 10 innings last night. The Cardinals are playing as well as any team in the majors right now. Beltran, Berkman, Holliday, and Freese is a tremendous middle of the lineup. The Reds offense is scuffling in a big way right now. Jaime Garcia is ridiculously tough at home, and he has an ERA of less than 1.90 in April in his career. The Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 as a road underdog. The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Garcia's last 5 starts as a home favorite. In addition, the Cardinals are 4-0 in Garcia's last 4 home starts against the Reds. In total, a 18-0 winning angle backs this play. Take the Cardinals big.
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04-18-12 | Baltimore Orioles +140 v. Chicago White Sox | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Baltimore Orioles have taken the first two games from the Chicago White Sox. I have been on the Orioles in the first two games because I thought the oddsmakers had shaded the line too far in the White Sox favor. I am playing on the Orioles again in this one. Jake Peavy was great in his season opener against Detroit, but Peavy has been wildly inconsistent the last couple years. Baltimore's offense is hitting the ball very well right now. Tommy Hunter may not be a star, but he is a decent pitcher. The Orioles are 5-0 in his last 5 starts. Take Baltimore here.
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04-18-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* I played successfully on the Brewers last night. Last night's play was primarily a fade of the Dodgers because of their ridiculously easy schedule early this year. Oddsmakers are giving the Dodgers too much credit for a red hot start. Before last night they had played San Diego 7 times and Pittsburgh 3 times. Zack Greinke is a different pitcher at home. The Brewers are a perfect 18-0 in Greinke's last 18 home starts. That's no small sample size, and outside Kemp and Ethier this Dodgers lineup isn't good. Chris Capuano isn't reliable and I like the Brewers to win comfortably. Take Milwaukee -1.5.
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04-18-12 | Texas Rangers +115 v. Boston Red Sox | 6-3 | Win | 115 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* To say that the Red Sox were blasted last night is a major understatement. Unfortunately I was on Boston in that game. It was easily my worst pick of an otherwise good night. Texas has the best lineup top to bottom in the majors. Boston has no team chemistry right now. Derek Holland is a rising star for the Rangers. The Red Sox hitters have combined for an average of just under .200 against Holland in their careers. The Rangers are 16-5 in Holland's last 21 starts. Texas is the better team right now. Take the Rangers.
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04-18-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Chase Field becomes a hitters paradise when the roof is open. It is even better for hitters during the day time. This game will be played in temperatures above 90 degrees with low humidity, so the ball should carry extremely well. The over is 12-2 in the last 14 day games at Arizona with the roof open. The over is 6-0 in the Diamondbacks last 6 games with the total set at 7-8.5 runs. Both teams should be able to put up runs in this environment. Look for this one to get over the posted total.
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04-17-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline CRUSHER* Ian Kennedy wasn't far from winning the NL Cy Young award last year. Kennedy has a stellar 2.84 ERA through his first two starts of this season as well. The Pittsburgh Pirates lineup isn't going to strike fear in anyone this year. Arizona has plenty of guys who can hit the long ball, and that should be key with Chase Field's roof being open for this game. The Pirates are 1-5 in Karstens last 6 starts. The Diamondbacks are 10-1 in Kennedy's last 11 home starts. Look for a comfortable win here. Take Arizona.
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04-17-12 | Baltimore Orioles +122 v. Chicago White Sox | 3-2 | Win | 122 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Wei-Yen Chen had a solid first start of his major league career against the Yankees last week. The Baltimore Orioles are absolutely crushing left-handed pitching so far this year. Baltimore is averaging 6.38 runs per 9 innings against lefties. John Danks is not a dominating pitcher, and he has struggled against the Orioles in the past. Gary Darling is behind the plate here and Danks has a career ERA of about 10 with him as the umpire. I like the Orioles lineup right now. Take Baltimore.
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04-17-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Milwaukee Brewers -121 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Moneyline Top Play* The Los Angeles Dodgers have started the season 9-1. I was very high on the Dodgers before the season, and I still like them, but I think they are getting overvalued by the oddsmakers right now. The Brewers are another team I like. If this game was played on opening day with these pitchers the Brewers would likely have been -150. The Dodgers have played the Padres seven games and the Pirates in three. That is the easiest schedule in baseball thus far. Milwaukee has lost 5 of their 6 games this year to Atlanta and St. Louis, two solid teams. The Brewers are 16-4 in Gallardo's last 20 home starts. Milwaukee is 2-0 in the last 2 years against Chad Billingsley. Take Milwaukee big here.
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04-17-12 | Texas Rangers v. Boston Red Sox -115 | 18-3 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* Texas is a very good team, but I like the Red Sox in this spot. Jon Lester is 0-1 this year while Colby Lewis is 1-0, but Lester is the better pitcher. Lewis has a career ERA over 6 at Fenway Park in three starts. The Red Sox are 46-19 in Lester's last 65 home starts. The Red Sox are 5-2 in Lester's last 7 starts against the Rangers. Adrian Gonzalez is 6 for 7 with 3 HR's in his career against Colby Lewis. Boston hasn't been playing well of late, but this value is too much to pass up. Take Boston.
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04-17-12 | Minnesota: F Liriano v. New York (A): C Sabathia OVER 8.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Francisco Liriano isn't right so far this season. There might not be a pitcher in the majors who can be hot then cold more than Liriano. In bad form, he is extremely bad. The Yankees lineup is tough on lefties, and I think they'll knock him out of this game early. C.C. Sabathia has an ERA over 6 so far this season. The over is 5-0 in Liriano's last 5 road starts. The over is 4-0 in Sabathia's last 4 starts overall. The over is 10-2 in Sabathia's last 12 against the AL Central. The over is 4-1 in Sabathia's last 5 against the Twins. Backed by a 23-3 winning angle, I like the over in this one.
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04-16-12 | Philadelphia Phillies -106 v. San Francisco Giants | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* It is Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum Monday night in San Francisco. This is a major pitcher's dual, but these two pitchers come into this game with very different backgrounds this year. Lincecum has been awful in his first two starts. He has a 2.22 WHIP and 12.91 ERA. Roy Halladay has allowed just one run in 15 innings of work this year. The Phillies offense isn't great right now, but they are still better than the Giants offense. Halladay gives them a nice pitching edge and the lineup is better than the Giants. The Phillies are 13-3 in Halladay's last 16 after he gave up 2 runs or less in his previous start. They are also 40-11 in his last 51 starts as the favorite. Take the Phillies.
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04-16-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Arizona Diamondbacks -124 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Mover* The line on the Arizona Diamondbacks has dropped to a point where I can't pass this one up. Joe Saunders isn't a great pitcher, but he is in good form right now and he'll face a terrible Pirates lineup tonight. Erik Bedard isn't great, and the Diamondbacks have plenty of guys who hit left-handers well. The roof will be open tonight at Chase Field, which favors the team with more home run hitters. Arizona is 13-3 in their last 16 games against a team with a winning % below 40%. Look for the Diamondbacks to take care of business here.
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04-16-12 | Baltimore Orioles +116 v. Chicago White Sox | 10-4 | Win | 116 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Bookie BEATDOWN* Jake Arrieta improved as the season went on last year, and he looked great in the season opener this year. Phillip Humber will be starting his first game of the season for the White Sox here. Baltimore beat Humber twice last year. The Orioles have a pretty good lineup, and the White Sox are a team on the decline. The Orioles are 6-1 in Arrieta's last 7 against the AL Central. The White Sox are 2-9 in Humber's last 11 starts. Baltimore is playing solid baseball right now. I like the value on the Orioles in this game.
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04-16-12 | New York Mets +156 v. Atlanta Braves | 6-1 | Win | 156 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Value Play* There are times early in the season where it is wise to simply play a line based on value. That is exactly what this play is based on. Dillon Gee has been great on the road, and he has fared well in Atlanta. The Mets have beaten Tommy Hansen several times in the last couple years. David Wright is back in the lineup and healthy. The Mets are 11-5 in Gee's last 16 road starts. They are 4-0 in their last 4 against the Braves. Take the Mets here.
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04-15-12 | LA Anaheim: J Williams v. New York (A): I Nova OVER 10 | 5-11 | Win | 102 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total* Los Angeles and New York have two of the best lineups in all of baseball. Albert Pujols hasn't had a breakout game yet, but he will soon. The Angels should be able to get to Ivan Nova, especially with the wind blowing out at gametime. Jerome Williams isn't really a starting pitcher in the majors, and I think he'll struggle badly against this loaded Yankees lineup. The over is 7-3-1 in Nova's last 11 home games. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York. Look for a high scoring game. Take the over.
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04-15-12 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Runline Top Play* Edinson Volquez is a guy I will fade until he proves me wrong. Volquez has tons of talent and great stuff, but he is far too inconsistent. Almost every game he has a bad inning because of his control issues. Clayton Kershaw is as consistent as they come. The Dodgers have Kemp and Ethier in the middle of the lineup, while the Padres have one of the three worst offenses in all of baseball. It's a pitching mismatch and a lineup mismatch in advantage of the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games against the Padres. Take the Dodgers -1.5 big.
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04-15-12 | Pittsburgh: K Correia v. San Francisco: Vogelsong OVER 7 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Total Domination* The total is set very low in this one. I understand why the books set the total low because both offenses aren't very good, but there are several factors working for the over in this one. The wind is blowing out 10 mph. Tim McClelland is the home plate umpire, and he has one of the smallest strike zones of any umpire. Both pitches rely heavily on getting the corners, and I don't they will here. Ryan Vogelsong has a career ERA of almost 6 against the Pirates. The over is 9-3 in Correia's last 12 starts. I think this one is a run or two too low. Take the over!
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04-15-12 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Total* The Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals game was my 5 Star Top Total play of the day yesterday. That one worked out well as the final was 11-9. I don't expect anything silly high like that again, but there are tons of factors pointing toward another over. Ubaldo Jimenez has not been good on the road in his time with Cleveland. Mendoza has looked solid for KC, but he is untested. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 25-30 mph in this game. Both teams can put up the runs. The over is 8-0 in the Royals last 8 home games. The over is 6-0 in Jimenez's last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take the over big here!
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04-15-12 | Milwaukee: C Narveson v. Atlanta: B Beachy OVER 8.5 | 4-7 | Win | 105 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Total* The Atlanta Braves have a solid lineup. Through the first few games of the year they weren't showing their potential much at all, but the last couple games they are bashing the baseball. They put up 8 runs last night, and I think they could put up a big number here again. Chris Narveson has been poor on the road in the past, and I see no reason to believe that changes here. Milwaukee has one of the better lineups in the National League, and they should be able to score some against a mediocre pitcher like Beachy. The over is 5-0 in Beachy's last 5 home starts. The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 games. The over is 7-0 in Narveson's last 7 road games with a total between 7 and 8.5. The over is 5-0-1 in the Brewers last 6 Sunday games. A combined 22-0 winning angle here! Take the over here.
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04-15-12 | Cincinnati: M Leake v. Washington: R Detwiler UNDER 8 | 8-5 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cincinnati Reds have been one of the most disappointing teams in Major League Baseball so far this year. The Reds lineup has been terrible of late. They have scored more than 4 runs just once all season. Mike Leake is a solid young pitcher who does a good job keeping the ball down. He should fare well in Washington. Ross Detwiler is an improving pitcher who I believe will bring some good value to the under this season. The under is 18-7-4 in the teams last 29 meetings. Take the under.
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04-15-12 | Houston Astros v. MIA MARLINS -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird* J.A. Happ has been one of the wildest pitchers in baseball the last couple years. He struggles to locate inside the strike zone, and he also walks a ton of guys. The Marlins blew a 3 run lead when Houston scored four in the ninth inning yesterday to upset Miami at home. This Miami team should be highly motivated in this one. Anibal Sanchez is a pretty good pitcher who is fairly consistent. The Marlins have the much better lineup, and I think they can get to Happ here. Take Miami -1.5.
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04-14-12 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Total* The Cleveland Indians took it to Luke Hochevar early yesterday. Johnathan Sanchez toes the hill in this one for the Royals. Sanchez is capable of melting down too, especially with his control problems. Jeanmar Gomez has never had much success on the road in his career. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 20 mph here. Both lineups are improved this year. The trends here are amazing, and they can't be overlooked. The over is 5-0 in Gomez's last 5 road starts. The over is 7-0 in the Royals last 7 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Indians last 5 Saturday games. The over is 3-0 in Gary Darling's last 3 games behind home plate. A PERFECT 20-0 angle backs this one. Take the over big here.
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04-14-12 | DET TIGERS v. Chicago White Sox OVER 9 | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Adam Wilk makes his Major League debut in this game for the Tigers. Wilk is a solid prospect, but I'm not sure he's ready for the big leagues just yet. Starting in Chicago against a White Sox lineup that is actually hitting pretty well right now isn't a particularly easy spot for the kid. At the same time, Gavin Floyd is capable of getting roughed up. The Tigers have one of the best lineups in all of baseball. The over is 9-3-1 in Floyd's last 13 home starts. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
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04-14-12 | Cincinnati: H Bailey v. Washington: E Jackson OVER 8 | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The first two games between these teams were very low scoring, but I think this sets us up with a very nice value here. Homer Bailey has never been consistent enough to be considered a good pitcher in the majors. Bailey has an ERA of nearly 7 in April during his career. Edwin Jackson has been hit hard early in the season as well. Both bullpens were used a lot the last couple days, and that could get us an extra run or two in this game. The wind is blowing out and we have a favorable umpire. Take the over.
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04-14-12 | Chicago Cubs v. St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 115 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cubs smashed the Cardinals in St. Louis' home opener yesterday afternoon. Expect the Cardinals to be more than a little salty about that loss. Lance Lynn is a very good young pitcher who could be very good this year. Chris Volstad never really put it together for the Marlins, and he has an ERA above 5 against the Cardinals in his career. The Cubs are just 2-7 in their last 9 at St. Louis. The Cardinals are 41-19 in their last 60 against a right-handed pitcher. Look for St. Louis to cruise here.
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04-14-12 | Texas: Y Darvish v. Minnesota: Blackburn +1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Yu Darvish is a very talented pitcher, but he showed in his first start in the majors that he is definitely not unhittable. Seattle may have the worst lineup in baseball, and they touched him up for four runs. Minnesota has Mauer and Morneau in the middle of the order, and Josh Willingham is as hot as anyone in the league right now. Nick Blackburn is a serviceable starter who fares well at home normally. I think the public loves Darvish too much. I like getting the +1.5 with the home team here. Take the Twins +1.5.
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04-13-12 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals -120 | 8-3 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Derek Lowe had a terrific first start for the Indians last week. Lowe was terrible last year though, and I don't think he can be trusted at this point in his career. Luke Hochevar improved at the end of last year, and he was great against the Angels in the season opener. Hochevar has always been much better at home. This is the Royals home opener, and expectations are high for this team this season. The Indians are 0-6 in their last 6 against an AL Central foe. The Royals are 6-1 in Hochevar's last 7 home starts. Take the Royals.
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04-13-12 | DET TIGERS -106 v. Chicago White Sox | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers will be one of the best teams in the American League this year. Max Scherzer isn't a consistent pitcher, but neither is Jake Peavy at this point in his career. Detroit has a huge edge in hitting in this game. The Tigers lineup is terrific, while the White Sox have a below average lineup at this point. The White Sox are 1-6 in Peavy's last 7 home starts. The Tigers are 21-6 in their last 27 games against the White. Detroit is also 10-1 in their last 11 Friday games. The Tigers are undervalued here. Take Detroit.
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04-13-12 | Tampa Bay Rays +111 v. Boston Red Sox | 2-12 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Rays/Sox ML Play* David Price gets the start here for the Rays. Josh Beckett will be on the mound for the Marlins. Price is an extremely consistent left-handed pitcher. He has thrown a quality start in 9 of his last 10 starts overall. Tampa Bay is 8-1 in their last 9 against Boston. The Rays are 4-0 in Price's last 4 road starts against Boston. The Red Sox chemistry appears to be bad once again this year. I think the Rays have the better pitcher here, and I like them as the underdog. Take the Rays.
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04-12-12 | Arizona: I Kennedy -126 v. San Diego: A Bass | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Ian Kennedy wasn't sharp in his first start of the season, but that was at Chase Field with the roof open. Petco Park is a pitchers dream, and Kennedy is 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA in 44 innings of work at San Diego. Anthony Bass is a solid young pitcher, but I'm not impressed by this San Diego offense. Bass may have to completely shut down the DBacks to win this game. The DBacks are 6-0 in Kennedy's last 6 starts as a favorite between -110 and -150. Arizona is also 5-0 in Kennedy's last 5 starts against San Diego. San Diego is 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win. Take Arizona.
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04-12-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Total* The 17-8 run scoring fest in Coors Field shows just what this ballpark can do to pitchers who aren't on their game. Lincecum and Guthrie seems like a great pitching matchup compared to Bumgarner and Moyer. Jamie Moyer is 49 years old and I find it hard to believe he can shut down anyone right now. Moyer has an ERA above 10 at Coors Field, and now he has to call it home. Bumgarner is a pretty good pitcher, but his ERA is over 6 in April in his young career. The over is 8-0 in Bumgarner's last 8 road starts. The over is 13-3 in the Rockies last 16 as a home underdog. Take the over big in this one!
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04-12-12 | Seattle: J Vargas v. Texas: D Holland UNDER 9.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value Play* Doug Eddings has been the most consistent 'under' umpire in baseball over the past few years. No one has a bigger strike zone than Eddings, and that should help both of these pitchers a lot. Vargas improved a ton at the end of last year, and he has had success against Texas. Derek Holland can be lights out when he is on, and Seattle's lineup isn't very good at all. The under is 7-1 in the Rangers last 8 home games. The under is 4-1 in Vargas' last 5 starts in Texas. I like the value on the under here.
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04-12-12 | Los Angeles Angels v. Minnesota Twins +1.5 | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Francisco Liriano is one of those pitchers that can either be on or off, and there usually isn't much in between. Liriano did have a poor first start, but his Spring Training was extremely encouraging. Liriano walked just five in 27 innings. He finished the Spring with a 2.33 ERA. Dan Haren has an ERA above 5 in two starts at Minnesota. The Twins are generally a tough team to beat at home. The posted total here is 7.5, and the wind is blowing in. I think the Twins have a solid shot of winning, but I really like the +1.5 here.
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04-12-12 | Tampa Bay: J Niemann v. Detroit: D Smyly -113 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Value Play* The Detroit Tigers dominated the game yesterday, but the Rays managed to get to Justin Verlander and the Tigers bullpen in the ninth to sneak out with a 4-2 win. Detroit's Drew Smyly makes his first career start in this one. Smyly is one of the highest rated prospects in the Tigers farm system. I think he'll use the park's dimensions to his advantage nicely. Jeff Niemann isn't a great road pitcher. There won't be many times this year we'll be able to get the Tigers ML at nearly even at home. Detroit is 20-6 in their last 26 home games. Take Detroit.
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04-11-12 | San Francisco Giants -118 v. Colorado Rockies | 8-17 | Loss | -118 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Tim Lincecum is coming off a rare disappointing Opening Day start. He isn't a guy who stays in a funk very long normally. In addition, he has been very good at Coors Field in the past. Linecum has a career ERA of 3.6 at Coors Field, which is quite impressive. Jeremy Guthrie isn't a very impressive ace for the Rockies. San Francisco has a major advantage in the bullpen as well. The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 meetings in Colorado. Colorado is 0-8 in their last 8 home games. This 13-0 winning angle should hold true again. Take the Giants.
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04-11-12 | Los Angeles Angels -1.5 v. Minnesota Twins | 5-6 | Loss | -101 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Jered Weaver is one of the most consistent pitchers in the game today. Weaver rarely has a bad start, and I don't expect it against a weak Twins lineup. Mauer and Morneau are very good in the middle of the order, but at the top and bottom of the lineup the Twins are very weak. Carl Pavano has an ERA over 10 in his career with Chad Fairchild as the home plate umpire. Pavano is likely to get hit around pretty good by a great Angels lineup. I don't expect this one to be close. Take the Angels -1.5.
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04-11-12 | Atlanta: R Delgado v. Houston: W Rodriguz OVER 7.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Sam Holbrook is a huge 'over' umpire. Holbrook has one of the smallest strike zones in the major leagues, and that will hurt both of these pitchers who work the edges of the strike zone. Wandy Rodriguez is a very good pitcher, but several of the current Braves players have had nice success against him. Randall Delgado isn't consistent enough to be a solid MLB starter just yet. The Braves offense seems to be waking up after a terrible start. I like the value on the over in this game.
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04-11-12 | Seattle: K Millwood v. Texas: C Lewis -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* Kevin Millwood will start for the Seattle Mariners. Millwood was out of baseball for quite a while, but he has come back and landed a spot at the back of the Mariners rotation. Seattle is a light-hitting team, so Millwood will have to be great here. I don't think he has enough left in the tanks. The Rangers are 5-0 in Colby Lewis' last 5 home starts against the Mariners. The Rangers have a deep lineup that should pile up the runs in this one. I think this is a major mismatch all around. Take Texas -1.5.
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04-11-12 | Washington: Strasburg -107 v. New York (N): J Santana | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird* Johan Santana had a very nice first start of the year against the Atlanta Braves. Having said that, I don't think one start should give everyone a false sense of security that he will be fine this year. Santana was erratic in Spring Training and the Mets aren't that great of a team. Stephen Strasburg is farther along in the healing process, and he has a better defensive team behind him. The Nationals are 6-0 in Strasburg's last 6 starts as a road favorite. I think the Nationals moneyline is a great value here. Take Washington.
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04-11-12 | St.Louis Cardinals +121 v. Cincinnati Reds | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be on a real mission so far this year. Albert Pujols is a terrific player, but those who thought the Cardinals would simply fall apart without him were mistaken. This is still a very good lineup. Most importantly here, Jaime Garcia is on the mound. Garcia has a 1.7 ERA in his career in April. The Cardinals are 6-1 in his last 7 starts against the Reds. Cueto is very good, but the Cardinals have hit him well. In fact, Cueto's ERA against the Cardinals is above 4 in 13 starts. Take the Cardinals.
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04-11-12 | St.Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Bill Miller is one of my favorite 'under' umpires in all of baseball. Miller has a huge strike zone and the under has cashed in bigtime over the last few years in his games behind home plate. We have two very good pitchers who pitch best in the first half of the year in this game. The cool weather in Cincinnati will help the ball stay in the ballpark more than normal. This is a get away day for both teams, and we'll likely see some regulars sit in this game. Lance Berkman and Brandon Phillips are likely to miss the game due to injury. Take the under.
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04-10-12 | Arizona: T Cahill -101 v. San Diego: E Volquez | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* The Arizona Diamondbacks started the year at 3-0 with three impressive wins over the Giants. San Diego lost 3 out of 4 at home against the Dodgers. Edinson Volquez showed how inconsistent he is in his first start as a Padre. Volquez has very good stuff, but his control problems make it tough for him to get through the game without a bad inning or two. I like Trevor Cahill, and I think he'll pitch very well against this light-hitting Padres team. The Diamondbacks aren't getting much respect from the oddsmakers here. Arizona has the better lineup and the more consistent pitcher. Take Arizona.
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04-10-12 | Atlanta: T Hanson -1.5 v. Houston: K Weiland | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* There are two winless teams left in Major League Baseball. The Minnesota Twins and the Atlanta Braves. The Braves might not be a great team, but they certainly aren't a bad team. Houston is a bad team, and I fully expect them to finish in the cellar of the NL Central. Tommy Hanson is improving a great deal as a pitcher, and he should take care of this weak Astros lineup. Atlanta has the much better lineup here. The value is much better than we would have seen a few days ago, and I like Atlanta to bust out with a big win here.
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04-10-12 | Seattle: B Beavan v. Texas: N Feliz OVER 9.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Dana DeMuth was behind the plate 34 times last year. The over was 26-8 in those 34 games. He has a tight strike zone, and he'll make it difficult on young Blake Beavan and Neftali Feliz. Feliz is making his first start here, and I suspect he'll be a bit out of rhythm. Beavan hasn't pitched in Texas, and I don't think he'll like this hitters ballpark. The over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams at Texas. Texas is capable of getting to this number by themselves, and I think Seattle will score some off Feliz. Take the over.
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04-10-12 | Boston: D Bard v. Toronto: K Drabek OVER 9.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Daniel Bard is making his first career start in this one. Bard has very good stuff, but he sometimes has issues with his control. Toronto is a very good hitting team. Bard is 1-10 in his career on the road, and his ERA is 5.40 at Toronto. Kyle Drabek has a horrible 12.00 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox. It doesn't hurt at all that we have Tim McClelland as the home plate umpire here. He is one of the best 'over' umpires in the business, because of the extremely low percentage of strikes he calls. The over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Toronto. Take the over.
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04-10-12 | Pittsburgh: K Correia v. Los Angeles: C Kershaw -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Clayton Kershaw only pitched 3 innings in the Dodgers first game of the season because of the stomach flu. He'll start this one which is the Dodgers home opener. The Dodgers took 3 of 4 from San Diego this past weekend. Los Angeles is a team that I believe can make some noise in the NL West this year. Kevin Correia is a mediocre pitcher, and I don't think he'll be able to match Kershaw here. The Dodgers are 12-6 in their last 18 home openers. They are also 8-0 in Kershaw's last 8 starts on 4 days rest. Take the Dodgers -1.5.
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04-09-12 | Kansas City: L Mendoza +102 v. Oakland: T Milone | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* Kansas City stunned the baseball world by taking two out of three from the mighty Los Angeles Angels. Kansas City's offense is pretty impressive. Alex Gordon has come into his own at this point, and the Royals youngsters like Hosmer and Moustakas are going to be tremendous. Luis Mendoza had an ERA under 1 in Spring Training this year. Tom Milone has never been a starter in the majors, and I don't expect him to be successful here. Kansas City has the better offense. Take the Royals.
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04-09-12 | St Louis: Westbrook v. Cincinnati: H Bailey OVER 9 | 7-1 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* In his career, Homer Bailey has seen a lot of the St. Louis Cardinals. Bailey has started nine games at St. Louis, but his ERA is 5.64. Jake Westbrook is on the mound for the Cardinals, and his worst month of the year historically has been April. The wind is expected to be howling out toward center in this one. Great American Ballpark is a major hitters park to start with, and with the aid of the wind the ball should be flying out a lot Monday night. The over is 19-7 in Bailey's last 26 starts. The over is 4-0 in Westbrook's last 4 starts. Take the over.
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04-09-12 | Boston: F Doubront v. Toronto: H Alvarez -116 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -116 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Moneyline Top Play* Toronto should be geared up for their home opener in this one. There will be 50,000 or more fans packed into the dome Monday night. Boston is coming off a demoralizing extra innings loss at Detroit. The Red Sox were swept away from Detroit with three losses. Boston's bullpen has been awful this year. Toronto has a very good hitting team, and I expect the Blue Jays to pile up the runs this year. Henderson Alvarez was very good in limited time last year, and he looked great in Spring Training. I don't have confidence in Doubront for the Red Sox. The Jays have the pitching advantage here, and this isn't a good spot for the Red Sox. I like Toronto big here.
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04-09-12 | LA Anaheim: C Wilson -1.5 v. Minnesota: Blackburn | 5-1 | Win | 101 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Angels disappointed by losing two of three to the Kansas City Royals at home this past weekend. I still think this Angels team will be terrific this season. C.J. Wilson has the potential to be one of the best in the American League again this year, and he has great numbers against Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in his career. On the other side, Nick Blackburn has a an ERA over 5.50 against the Angels in his career. Add Albert Pujols and Kendry Morales to the middle of the lineup and that makes them that much tougher. The Twins are in for a long season, and the Angels have the advantage in every facet of the game here. Angels -1.5.
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04-08-12 | San Francisco: M Cain -114 v. Arizona: Collmenter | 6-7 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* Matt Cain has had a lot of success against the Diamondbacks in the past. The Giants really need to salvage a win in this game, and I think they have a big pitching advantage here. Josh Collmenter had a good season last year, but he was never that good in the minors and I expect him to regress. The Giants are 7-2 in Cain's last 9 starts against Arizona. It isn't often that we'll see this good of a value on the Giants when Matt Cain is pitching. I like the Giants to take care of business here.
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04-08-12 | San Francisco: M Cain v. Arizona: Collmenter OVER 8 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open. Aaron Hill bashed two home runs yesterday as I cashed on the over in that game on my 5 Star Top Play. Matt Cain is very solid, but he does give up the long ball a decent amount. Josh Collmenter has had some success in the majors, but I think hitters will catch on against his strange delivery this year. The over is 5-0-1 in Arizona's last 6 home games. The over is 13-4 in San Francisco's last 17 road games. I think this one gets over the posted total.
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04-08-12 | Los Angeles: A Harang +113 v. San Diego: C Richard | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Bookie BEATDOWN* The line on this game is a bit strange. I suspect the line is this way because the books know the public doesn't think a team can complete a 4-0 sweep on the road. The Padres aren't a good team at all, and I expect a good year from the Dodgers. Aaron Harang had a lot of success in PetCo Park last year, and he should be anxious to show his old team his stuff in this one. The Padres are 1-11 in Clayton Richard's last 12 home starts, and they are still favored. I'll take the underdog here. Take the Dodgers.
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04-08-12 | Colorado: J Nicasio v. Houston: B Norris +126 | 2-3 | Win | 126 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* Early in the season there are times it is wise to simply play a game based on line value alone. The Houston Astros aren't a good team at all. I don't consider the Rockies to be particularly good either. Juan Nicasio has an ERA over 7 on the road in his young career. Bud Norris is pretty good at home. I was surprised to see the Rockies as such big favorites in this one. I think this one should be close to pick'em. I'll take the team with the better pitcher at plus money here. Take Houston.
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04-08-12 | Boston: C Buchholz v. Detroit: M Scherzer OVER 8.5 | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox and the Detroit Tigers have two of the best offenses in the American League. These teams can pile up the runs in bunches. Max Scherzer has been terrible against the Red Sox in the past. He has an ERA over 9 against them in his career. Clay Buchholz is a good pitcher, but he is coming off injuries and I don't think he'll dominate this terrific Tigers lineup. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 22 mph in this game. Both teams have plenty of big boppers to knock it out. Take the over.
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04-07-12 | New York (A): H Kuroda v. Tampa Bay: D Price OVER 7.5 | 6-8 | Win | 103 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The New York Yankees have an amazing lineup, and anytime I see a total this low in one of their games I have to take a second look. David Price is a very good pitcher, but the 'over' is 7-3 in his last 10 starts against New York. Kuroda will be making his first start in a Yankees uniform here. He is a good pitcher, but I don't find him to be dominating. Sam Holbrook is one of the biggest over umpires in baseball, and he'll pinch the strike zone a lot here. Take the over in this one.
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04-07-12 | Kansas City: L Hochevar v. LA Anaheim: D Haren -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major Mismatch* Luke Hochevar was a very high draft pick, but he has never fulfilled his promise in the majors. Hochevar has a career ERA of 5.29. Last time he went up against the Angels he gave 7 hits and 4 runs in just five innings. This Angels offense is much better now with Morales healthy and a huge bat in Albert Pujols in the middle of the lineup. Dan Haren is a terrific pitcher, and he is generally a very strong starter at the beginning of the season. The Angels are 8-1 in his last 9 home starts. The Royals are 0-4 in Hochevar's last 4 starts against the Angels. Take LA -1.5.
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04-07-12 | San Francisco: Bumgarner v. Arizona: D Hudson OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Top Total* Chase Field is a whole different stadium when the roof is open. The dry heat allows the ball to travel in a big way. Three home runs were hit yesterday and that was in a much lower temperature than is expected for this game. Daniel Hudson is a very good pitcher, but he struggled early in the year when the roof was open last season. Jim Reynolds is one of the best over umpires in the game. The over is 119-92 in the last six years when he is behind the dish. Even better, Madison Bumgarner struggles on the road. The over is a perfect 7-0 in his last 7 road starts. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. Take the over big here.
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04-07-12 | Toronto: B Morrow -101 v. Cleveland: U Jimenez | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays play in a very tough division, but they are a pretty good team. Their overall record will suffer some because they are in the AL East, but expect them to fare quite well outside the division. Ubaldo Jimenez is working with his mechanics a lot, and I don't have a ton of faith in him right now. Brandon Morrow finished the season very strong last year, and I expect a good year out of him. The Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games at Cleveland. Toronto has the better lineup here. Take Toronto.
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04-06-12 | Kansas City: B Chen v. LA Anaheim: J Weaver -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 108 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* Bruce Chen isn't a bad pitcher, but he certainly isn't an ace by most teams standards. The Angels lineup gets a huge boost from Albert Pujols. The Angels have hit Chen very well in the past, and Pujols has 2 HR's in 8 AB's against Chen. Jered Weaver is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Weaver had an amazing 2.74 ERA last season. The Angels are 41-15 in Weaver's last 56 home starts. They are also 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Royals. Kansas City is improving, but they are definitely not in the same league as the Angels. Take the Angels -1.5.
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04-06-12 | St Louis: J Garcia +115 v. Milwaukee: Y Gallardo | 11-5 | Win | 115 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series last year despite getting into the playoffs on the last day of the season. They won as huge underdogs in Miami Wednesday night. St. Louis is listed as an underdog again here, and I don't think it makes much sense. Jaime Garcia is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and April has been his best month of the year in his career. Garcia has a solid 3.27 ERA against the Brewers. Yovani Gallardo is 1-7 with a 5.66 ERA against the Cardinals in 11 starts. The Brewers are 0-4 in Gallardo's last 4 starts against St. Louis. Take the Cardinals.
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04-06-12 | St Louis: J Garcia v. Milwaukee: Y Gallardo OVER 7 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* This total is set extremely low, and I don't think it should be. Both starting pitchers have struggled in this situation. Garcia is a good pitcher, but he has an ERA above 6 at Miller Park. Gallardo has an ERA of 5.66 in 11 starts against the Cardinals. Both of these teams are much better than the average offense in the majors. The over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings between these two in Milwaukee. I think this one has a good chance of getting to 9 or 10 runs. This one is likely an overreaction to so many games going 'under' yesterday. Take the value on the over.
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04-06-12 | Minnesota: C Pavano v. Baltimore: J Arrieta OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* I was waiting on this play to confirm the umpire and lineups. Now that both look solid, I am going to play the over here. Both pitching staffs are very poor. Carl Pavano and Jake Arrieta should not be an ace in any situation, but they are for these teams. Both of these offenses should be better than last year. The bullpens are both terrible in this one, and I expect them to get roughed up here. The over is 11-5-3 in Arrieta's last 19 home starts. The over is 5-2 in Pavano's last 7 road starts. Take the over.
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04-05-12 | Los Angeles: C Kershaw -145 v. San Diego: E Volquez | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Opening Day Top Play* Clayton Kershaw is an absolutely dominating pitcher who is as consistent as you will find in the majors. The Dodgers struggled through most of the season last year, but they got hot at the end and finished 82-79. This team has a lot more to play for with new ownership and a clear picture this season. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier give them a very nice middle of the order. The Padres are one of the weakest hitting teams in the league. Edinson Volquez has plenty of ability, but he can't control his pitches well at all. Volquez struggles to find the strike zone, and I could see him walking several people here. The Dodgers are the better team, and they have the much more consistent pitcher. The Dodgers are 10-2 in their last 12 against San Diego. San Diego is 1-10 in their last 11 against a lefty. The Dodgers are 5-1 in Kershaw's last 6 starts against San Diego. Take Los Angeles big here.
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04-05-12 | Atlanta: T Hanson -104 v. New York (N): J Santana | 0-1 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Johan Santana didn't pitch at all in 2011, and he was shaky in Spring Training. This isn't the game pitcher from two or three years ago. The Mets bullpen is a major problem area, while the Braves may have the best bullpen in the National League. Tommy Hanson is constantly improving as a starter. The Braves have one of the best defensive teams in the league, while the Mets are terrible on defense. The Braves are 8-1 in Hanson's last 9 road starts. I think oddsmakers are giving too much credit to Santana in his first start back. Take Atlanta.
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04-05-12 | Boston: J Lester v. Detroit: Verlander -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Boston Red Sox had an epic collapse at the end of last year, while the Detroit Tigers were red hot at the end of the regular season. Justin Verlander won the AL Cy Young and MVP awards. He was 24-5 and had a dazzling 2.40 ERA. The Tigers are a stunning 40-11 in Verlander's last 51 home starts. I really like this Detroit lineup. Boesch is better than people realize, then you have Cabrera and Fielder. This middle of the order is downright nasty. Boston started slow last year, and I don't like their team chemistry. Detroit should prove a point here behind a dominant Verlander. Take Detroit -1.5.
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03-30-12 | Arizona: Diamondbacks v. LA Anaheim: Angels -135 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB Preseason TOP Play* I rarely play an MLB preseason game, and this is my first of the year. I wait for spots that I love, and this one fits perfectly. C.J. Wilson is on the hill for the Angels and he has been dealing this Spring. His ERA is under one. He clearly is out to prove he was a good free agent signing by the Angels. The Angels are the much deeper team compared to the DBacks. Most importantly, recently Angels skipper Mike Scioscia made it clear he is putting a major priority on this team winning in Spring Training. I think this line should be much higher. Take the Angels big.
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10-20-11 | Texas Rangers -116 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Rangers/Cardinals Guaranteed Cash* The St. Louis Cardinals took Game One of the World Series from the Texas Rangers. Jaime Garcia goes tonight for St. Louis. Garcia was great through the first half of the season, but he has been really shaky of late. The opponents have scored at least three runs in 4 of the last 5 outings Garcia has had. In his last outing, he gave up only one run despite allowing 7 hits in 4 and 2/3. I don't think he'll be so fortunate against this Texas offense. I expect guys like Hamilton, Young, Cruz, etc. to have a big night tonight. Texas is 6-1 in their last 7 against left-handers. Colby Lewis is a very good road pitcher. Texas is 36-16 in their last 52 games following a loss. I expect Texas to even the series here. Take the Rangers ML.
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10-16-11 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* This is a must win game for the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee is much better at home, but Shaun Marcum has been bad of late and his splits are much better on the road than they are at home. Marcum simply hasn't been locating his pitches of late, and I expect the Cardinals to make him pay if that continues on Sunday. Edwin Jackson has been good in the postseason, but he is much better at home as well. The trends point strongly toward the over in this one. The over is 8-2 in Milwaukee's last 10 home games. The over is 7-1 in the Cardinals last 8 road games. Take the over!
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10-10-11 | St. Louis Cardinals +128 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 12-3 | Win | 128 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Cardinals/Brewers Moneyline CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals have fought back from a deficit all year. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. They are 11-4 in their last 15 as an underdog, and 10-3 in their last 13 as a road underdog. Edwin Jackson has great stuff, its just his control that can get him in trouble, but he has been in a groove of late. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Jackson's last 5 starts. Shaun Marcum has struggled a lot of late to command his pitches. Marcum has allowed seven runs in both of his last two starts. The Brewers are 0-4 in Marcum's last 4 home starts. Take the Cardinals as a live underdog here.
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10-07-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star DBacks/Brewers Total DOMINATION* It's a matchup of two aces in the deciding Game Five Friday night in Milwaukee. Gallardo pitched brilliantly in Game One, while Kennedy didn't have his best stuff. Kennedy was 21-5 this year, and I expect him to put forth a good effort here. Both pitchers should be able to make it deep into the game. Gallardo has an impressive 2.87 ERA at home this year. The under is 8-3 in Kennedy's last 11 starts. The under is 6-2 in Gallardo's last 8 home starts. Expect a close hard fought game here. Take the under.
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10-05-11 | Philadelphia Phillies -119 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Phillies/Cardinals Moneyline CASH* In my mind, the Phillies are quite clearly the most complete team in baseball right now. The Cardinls really let yesterday's game slip away from them after they stranded 14 runners. Philadelphia was outplayed in many ways, but they managed to win 3-2. I think the Phillies will finish this one off today with a solid veteran pitcher on the mound. Roy Oswalt was actually better on the road this year, and he pitched a shutout in two of his last three starts. Edwin Jackson is an inconsistent pitcher who has an ERA of 9 against the Phillies in his career. The Phillies are 61-29 in their last 90 games as a favorite. Take the Phillies.
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10-04-11 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 1-8 | Push | 0 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Milwaukee Brewers will look to sweep the Arizona Diamondbacks, while Arizona will look to stay alive. Shaun Marcum has been good most of the year, but he struggled down the stretch. He has a 6.62 ERA in his last three starts. Josh Collmenter has also struggled of late. Collmenter has a 5.50 ERA in his last three starts. Both of these teams have plenty of power hitters, and the roof is expected to be open in this one. Chase Field is a hitter's paradise when the roof is open, and I expect the ball to be flying well here. Take the over.
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10-01-11 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Texas Rangers -117 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* Tampa Bay dominated game one of this series. The Rangers simply can't afford to let Tampa get ahead 2-0, especially since these first two games are being played in Texas. James Shields is a very good pitcher but the Rays are just 2-6 in his last 8 road starts. Derek Holland has improved as the season has gone along. The Rangers are 6-1 in his last 7 home starts. Texas is 46-16 in their last 62 as a favorite. The Rangers are 9-0 coming off a shutout this season. I think Texas is the better team here and this is a must win situation. Take Texas.
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09-28-11 | Boston Red Sox -1.5 v. Baltimore Orioles | 3-4 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Red Sox/Orioles GUARANTEED Cash* It all comes down to this game for the Boston Red Sox. After a terrible collapse in the month of September, the Red Sox are tied with Tampa Bay in the AL Wild Card race. Jon Lester will go to the mound tonight against Baltimore. Lester is an amazing 14-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his career against Baltimore. Lester has dominated just about everyone in this Orioles lineup. Despite having a ton of plate appearances, the Orioles have just two career home runs in their normal lineup against Lester. Alfredo Simon will start for Baltimore. Simon has an ERA of almost 5 this season. The Orioles are 3-7 in his last 10 starts. Boston's offense should breakout tonight and I expect a solid effort from Lester. Boston -1.5.
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09-27-11 | Kansas City Royals v. Minnesota Twins OVER 9 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* The Kansas City Royals offense has really heated up in the last couple weeks. The over is 10-1 in the Royals last 11 games overall. Anthony Swarzak will pitch for the Twins here, and he has a poor 7.24 ERA in his last three starts. Sean O'Sullivan is on the hill for the Royals, and he has been terrible this year. Both of these teams have a poor bullpen and both offenses have been hot of late. The over is 11-1-1 in the Twins last 13 as well. Look for a high scoring game here. Take the over.
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09-27-11 | Washington Nationals v. Florida Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* After the start he had to the season, I honestly started wondering if Javier Vazquez's career was over, but he is absolutely dealing right now. He has an ERA of 0.00 in his last three starts. Three straight shutouts against quality teams, and now he'll face a weak Nationals lineup. John Lannan is a solid left-handed starter. The under is 11-4 in the Nationals last 15 road games. The under is 10-4 in the Marlins last 14 games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the under here.
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09-27-11 | Cincinnati Reds v. New York Mets OVER 8 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* Bronson Arroyo has pitched terribly all year. He pitched a complete game shutout last game, but I don't think he'll be great two games in a row. Marvin Hudson is behind the dish here, and he is a solid over umpire. Chris Capuano is a hittable lefty, and the Reds punish left-handed pitching. The over is 7-1 in the Mets last 8. The over is 4-0 in Capuano's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. I like this one to be high scoring. Take the over.
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09-26-11 | New York Yankees +206 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* I know the Yankees don't have as much to play for right now, but there is no way they should ever be this big of an underdog against Tampa Bay. James Shields is just 1-4 in his last 5 starts against New York. The Yankees lineup looks pretty good for tonight's game, and I don't expect them to just mail it in. At this price, I think a play on the Yankees is well worth the risk. Take New York here.
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09-25-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers UNDER 10 | 5-12 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Texas Rangers have clinched the American League West. If yesterday's lineup is any indication, we should expect lots of days off for the team's best players in days to come. Hamilton, Cruz, Kinsler, and Andrus were all out of the lineup yesterday. I wouldn't be surprised if guys like Moreland, Young, and Andrus get the day off Sunday. Derek Holland has been absolutely dealing of late. He is 15-5, and he has an ERA of 2 in his last three starts. The Mariners lineup is extremely weak. Doug Eddings is the umpire here, and he is probably the biggest 'under' umpire in the majors. How about these trends? The under is 6-1 in Furbush's (Seattle's starter in this one) last 7 starts. The under is 40-17-5 in Eddings last 62 Sunday games behind the plate. Take the under.
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09-24-11 | Cincinnati Reds -116 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 3-4 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates picked up a win on Friday night, but I think the Reds will even the series on Saturday. Pittsburgh has been absolutely horrendous since July. The Pirates are 15-38 in their last 53 games. They are 6-22 in their last 28 games against a team with a losing record. They are 2-6 in their last 8 games against a lefty. The Reds are 18-6 in their last 24 as the favorite. Travis Wood is a solid young pitcher, and I think he'll fare well against the Pirates here. Lincoln has been roughed up in his last couple outings. The Reds have the pitching advantage as well as a better lineup. Take the Reds.
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09-23-11 | Colorado Rockies v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 | 2-11 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Drew Pomeranz is one of the highest rated prospects in baseball. He has had two great starts to begin his career despite pitching at Coors Field. He'll get to take on a weak Houston Astros lineup now in a little more pitcher-friendly ballpark. Brett Myers has thrown three straight quality starts and he has an ERA under 2 in those starts. The majority of the Rockies lineup is backups since they have so many injuries. Expect both pitchers to take advantage of weak lineups here. Take the under.
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09-23-11 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* David Price has absolutely dominated the Toronto Blue Jays in his career. The Rays are 10-1 in Price's last 11 starts against the Blue Jays. Toronto has nothing to play for at this point, while Tampa Bay has everything to play for with the Red Sox collapsing in the Wild Card race. Brandon Morrow has a 6.62 ERA in his last three starts. The Rays should be highly motivated here, and they have a big pitching advantage. I expect Price to be dominating in this one. Tampa Bay -1.5.
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09-23-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Detroit Tigers have clinched the AL Central, but Jim Leyland has been continuing to play Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, and most of the starters on a daily basis. Alfredo Simon will pitch for the Orioles in this one. Simon has an ERA of 6.75 in his last three starts. Rick Porcello has been pretty good of late for the Tigers, but he has struggled at home all year. He has a 5.91 ERA at home this year. The Orioles offense has been putting up runs in bunches. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games. Take the over.
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09-22-11 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* Madison Bumgarner has been terrific of late. Bumgarner has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. The lefty will face a short-handed Dodgers lineup on Thursday night. Hiroki Kuroda has been very solid this year. He has a 3.21 ERA on the season. The Giants offense is very short-handed right now as well. I think both pitchers will find Jim Wolf's strike zone beneficial. Expect both pitchers to last quite a while in this one. I expect a close and low scoring game. Take the under.
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09-22-11 | Los Angeles Angels v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Ervin Santana has been great this year, but he hasn't been nearly as dominant of late. In 6 of his last 8 starts Santana has allowed at least 4 runs. The Blue Jays have a solid offense, and they can generally score some runs at home. Henderson Alvarez is a pretty good young pitcher, but the Angels are locked in on offense right now. Alvarez has a 4.40 ERA at home this year. Tim McClelland is the umpire in this one, and he is one of the best over umpires in the game because of his very small strike zone. The over is 15-6 in the Angels last 21 road games. The over is 15-6-2 in the Jays last 23. Take the over.
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09-22-11 | New York Mets v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets don't have much to play for at this point, and it seems that it making their games higher scoring. The over is 21-7-1 in their last 29 road games. The Cardinals have plenty to play for, and I think they'll be able to get to Chris Capuano. Capuano has a 5.29 ERA on the road this year. Jake Westbrook pitches for the Cardinals. He has a 5.59 ERA at home and a 5.15 ERA during the day. Jim Reynolds is a huge over umpire, and he is behind the dish for this one. Take the over.
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09-21-11 | New York Mets v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The New York Mets have nothing to play for at this point. They have been playing like a team that doesn't really care at all of late. The Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 games. The Cardinals are making a late charge at the NL Wild Card. St. Louis is just 2.5 games back of Atlanta. The Cardinals are 16-5 in their last 21 games. The Cardinals absolutely cannot afford to lose this game. Jaime Garcia went through a rough stretch, but he has gotten it back together of late. The Cardinals are 10-4 in his last 14 home starts. The Mets are 9-23 in their last 32 at St. Louis. I like the Cardinals to take care of business here. St. Louis -1.5.
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09-20-11 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Could there be a better pitching matchup in the National League? Clayton Kershaw would have my vote as this year's CY Young winner in the National League, and Tim Lincecum has already won it twice. Lincecum and Kershaw have squared off three times already this year. The final scores were 2-1, 2-1, and 1-0. Quite honestly, I could easily see this one staying at 3 runs or below once again. I expect both of these pitchers to be in the game a long time. Both offenses are very weak. This is a very low number, but I really like the under.
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