Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-16-11 | Cleveland Indians v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 104 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Totals TKO* Carlos Carrasco is a streaky pitcher, and he hasn't been pitching well at all lately. Carrasco has an ERA of 8.36 in his last three starts. Baltimore has dropped nine straight games, but it hasn't been because of their offense. The Orioles have scored four runs or more in six of those nine losses. Alfredo Simon starts for the Orioles. He is a former reliever and the Orioles are so short-handed in their rotation that they are trying him as a starter. I expect both starter's to get hit hard. The over is 5-1 in the Indians last 6. The over is 6-1 in the Orioles last 7. Take the over.
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07-16-11 | Philadelphia Phillies v. New York Mets UNDER 7 | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Cole Hamels is pitching just as well as anyone in baseball over the last month or two. Hamels hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his last nine starts. Jon Niese has been good at home this year. Both these teams have a much weaker lineup than normal. The Phillies are without Victorino and Polanco. The Mets are without Reyes and Wright. The under is 14-5-1 in Hamels' last 20 starts. The under is 9-3 in the Mets last 12 games. I expect a pitcher's duel in this one. Take the under.
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07-15-11 | Texas Rangers v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Colby Lewis has a good history against the Seattle Mariners, and this year's Mariners lineup is extremely weak. Derek Holland shut them out last night, and I think Lewis will continue his impressive starts against Seattle. Doug Fister is pitching for Seattle and he has quietly been very good all year. Fister has a great ERA of 1.96 in his last three starts. Bill Miller is the umpire here, and he is my single favorite 'under' umpire. The under is an amazing 65-30-6 in his last 101 games behind the plate. The under is 5-0 in Lewis' last 5 in Seattle. Take the under.
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07-15-11 | San Francisco Giants -133 v. San Diego Padres | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Moneyline CASH* It's rare to be able to get Tim Lincecum at -133, especially against a light-hitting team like the Padres. Dustin Moseley is a pretty good pitcher, but I like Lincecum's chances of shutting down the Padres. The Giants are 9-4 in Lincecum's last 13 starts against San Diego, including 6-2 in his last 8 road starts against the Padres. The Padres are 0-5 in Moseley's last 5 starts, and 2-12 in his last 14 starts as an underdog. The Giants offense is much better with Pablo Sandoval in the middle of the order, and it appears Aubrey Huff is starting to swing the bat better again. The Giants are 19-9 in their last 28 road games that Lincecum starts. They are also 10-3 coming off a win. I like the Giants ML here.
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07-15-11 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Colorado Rockies OVER 9.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -117 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Colorado Rockies bats are starting to heat up of late. The Rockies are a second half team, and they pounded out 12 runs last night. Chris Narveson has been shaky at Coors in the past (5.4 ERA), and the Rockies hit left-handers pretty well. Juan Nicasio is an inconsistent youngster at this point, and the Brewers lineup is very good. Ed Rapuano is behind the plate here. The 'over' is 15-4-2 in Rapuano's last 21 behind the plate. The over is also 18-7-1 in the Brewers last 26 games. Take the over.
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07-15-11 | Kansas City Royals v. Minnesota Twins -123 | 2-1 | Loss | -123 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Minnesota Twins looked like they were way out of the race a month or so ago, but some great play of late has the Twins back in the AL Central race. The Twins have been particularly tough at home (16-5 in their last 21 home games). Nick Blackburn starts in this one, and the Twins are 5-1 in his last 6 starts against the Royals. Luke Hochevar is on the hill for the Royals. The Royals are just 2-5 in his last 7 starts against Minnesota. Hochevar has an ERA above six on the road this year. Blackburn has a career ERA at Target Field of less than four. I like the Twins ML here.
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07-15-11 | Kansas City Royals v. Minnesota Twins OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* Luke Hochevar and Nick Blackburn are both struggling mightily right now. Hochevar has an ERA of 9.22 in his last three starts, and Blackburn has a ridiculous 12.15 ERA in his last three starts. Sam Holbrook is the umpire behind the plate in this one, and he is one of the best 'over' umpires in the league. The over is 12-5 in his 17 games behind the dish this year. The over is 20-5-2 in Hochevar's last 27 road starts. The over is a stunning 26-9-1 in their last 36 meetings between these two. The over is 4-1-1 in Hochevar's last 6 against the Twins. The over is 4-0-1 in Blackburn's last 5 starts against the Royals. Expect both pitchers to fair poorly in this one. Take the over.
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07-14-11 | Texas Rangers -112 v. Seattle Mariners | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Late Night BAILOUT* The Texas Rangers make a habit out of crushing left-handed pitching. The Rangers average 5.37 runs per game against lefties. The Rangers have won seven straight games, and they are really trying to take full control of the AL West. Seattle was a nice story in the first half as they hung in the race, but I just don't think a team with this weak of a lineup can stay in it for the long haul. Seattle is just 2-5 in Vargas' last 7 starts against Texas. The Mariners are 6-22 in their last 28 games against a left-hander. Take the Rangers.
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07-14-11 | San Francisco Giants +102 v. San Diego Padres | 6-2 | Win | 102 | 21 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Madison Bumgarner hasn't been nearly as bad as his record would indicate so far this year. Despite his 4-9 record, Bumgarner has a respectable 3.87 ERA. If it weren't for one terrible outing (1/3 inning and 8 runs) he would have a very impressive ERA. The Padres simply can't hit, and they have been even worse at home. The Giants have gotten a little healthier offensively, and they have a slight edge on the Padres in that area. The Giants are a decent road team (24-24), and the Padres are just 19-27 at home. I'll take the Giants here.
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07-14-11 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Colorado Rockies OVER 8.5 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* A pitching matchup of Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jimenez sounds like a pitcher's duel, but a closer look at the numbers tells you that is unlikely in this case. Gallardo has started three times in Colorado, and he has an ERA of 9.19 in those three starts. Jimenez has an ERA over 6 at home this year. The over is 6-2-1 in his last 9 home starts. The over is 11-4-1 in Gallardo's last 15 road starts. The over is also 4-0-1 in Gallardo's last 5 starts against the Rockies. The wind will be blowing out, and Coors Field is still a great hitters park. Take the over.
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07-10-11 | New York Mets v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Sunday Night Baseball Totals TKO* Matt Cain has been pitching very well of late, and the Giants struggle badly on offense. Mike Pelfrey is very inconsistent, but I think he'll be able to hold down this San Francisco offense. The under is 3-1-1 in Pelfrey's last 5 against the Giants. The under is 23-9-1 in the Giants last 33 home games. Bill Miller is the umpire here, and he may well be the best 'under' umpire in the game. The under is 12-2 in Miller's last 14 Sunday games behind the dish. I expect a pitcher's duel. Take the under.
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07-10-11 | San Diego Padres +106 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* Ted Lilly has been getting hit around pretty hard of late. Tim Stauffer has quietly been putting together a very solid season for the Padres. Stauffer has thrown six straight quality starts. Lilly is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA pitching in the daytime this year. He has just one quality start in his last five outings. The Dodgers are 1-4 in Lilly's last 5 home starts. The Padres are 7-3 in Stauffer's last 10 road starts. The Padres are 5-0 in Stauffer's last 5 starts against the Dodgers. Padres ML is the play.
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07-10-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 124 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* Jaime Garcia has been absolutely dominating at home this year. Garcia has an ERA of just 0.94 in 57 innings at home this season. Zach Duke is very inconsistent, and I think a team with a lineup like the Cardinals can make him pay for his mistakes. The Cardinals are 7-1 in Garcia's last 8 home starts. The Cardinals are 23-11 in their last 34 home games against Arizona. St. Louis has a huge pitching advantage, and I think they have the better lineup as well. Take the Cardinals -1.5.
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07-10-11 | Detroit Tigers -1.5 v. Kansas City Royals | 2-1 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* Justin Verlander is pitching better than anyone else in the game right now. In his last eight starts, Verlander has given up just six earned runs. Jeff Francis is a streaky pitcher and he hasn't been pitching well of late. Francis has a 5.15 ERA in day games so far this year. The Tigers have been very successful in Verlander's recent starts against KC. They are 6-1 in his last 7 against the Royals. This is a huge pitching mismatch, and the Tigers have the better lineup too. Take Tigers -1.5.
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07-10-11 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 9 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Dontrelle Willis makes his return to the big leagues as the Cincinnati Reds starter here. Willis has been good in the minors this year, but I have to think he'll be pretty nervous for this one. The Brewers have some very good bats and they should score plenty. Randy Wolf has an ERA of 6.00 in his last 3 starts. The Reds have a good history against Wolf, and Cincinnati absolutely crushes left-handed pitching. Both pitchers are capable of giving up a lot, so I'll take the over in this one.
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07-10-11 | Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates -128 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Paul Maholm is much better than his record indicates. The Pirates haven't given him much run support this year, but I think they will with a matchup against Ramon Ortiz on Sunday. Ortiz has bounced around in the minors and is finally back in the majors, but he doesn't have even close to dominating stuff at this point in his career. The Pirates are 4-0 in Maholm's last 4 starts. The Pirates are 11-4 in Maholm's last 15 starts against the Cubs. Take the Pirates ML here.
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07-09-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 6.5 | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Michael Pineda is just 22 years old, but he is already one of the best power arms in the majors. Pineda has a terrific fastball, and I just don't see this Angels team getting to him much. Piniero is a pretty good pitcher, and this Seattle team is very weak offensively. The under is 18-7-2 in Seattle's last 27 road games. The under is 38-16-10 in the Angels last 64 home games. The total is set low here, but it is set low for a very good reason. A 2-1 type of final score wouldn't surprise me. Take the under.
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07-09-11 | Detroit Tigers +110 v. Kansas City Royals | 6-13 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* Luke Hochevar is not a consistent pitcher, and the Detroit Tigers have a powerful offensive lineup. With Martinez, Cabrera, Ordonez, Avila, and Boesch, the Tigers can make a pitcher pay for mistakes. The Royals are just 4-11 in their last 15 home games. The Tigers are 37-16 in their last 53 against the AL Central. Furbush starts for the Tigers, and he is a quality young lefty. The Royals are 31-70 in their last 101 games against a lefty. Detroit has the much better offense, and I think they should be favored. Take the Tigers.
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07-09-11 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Johnny Cueto has been the most consistent pitcher in the majors so far this year. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a single game this year. Shaun Marcum is getting healthy once again, and he is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball right now. The under is 4-0-1 in Cueto's last 5 road starts. Ryan Braun is expected to miss this game, and the Brewers offense isn't nearly as strong without him. I think both pitchers will bring their best stuff. Take the under.
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07-08-11 | Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Rick Porcello has been hit very hard of late. Porcello has an ERA of 8.80 in his last three starts. Kyle Davies missed a couple months with an injury, but in his first start back he picked up right where he left off earlier this year. Davies allowed 7 runs (4 earned) in three innings in Colorado last week. For the year, Davies has a 7.77 ERA. The over is 5-2 in Davies' last 7 home starts. The over is 5-0 in Porcello's last 5 starts. I expect both offenses to put up several runs here. Take the over.
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07-08-11 | Minnesota Twins +150 v. Chicago White Sox | 8-5 | Win | 150 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Minnesota Twins have been playing much better baseball of late. They have been getting solid starting pitching and timely hitting from quite a few different guys. Nick Blackburn has owned the White Sox in his career, and Gavin Floyd has been awful against the Twins in his career. To be quite honest, the line on this game makes almost no sense. The Twins are 7-1 in Blackburn's last 8 starts against Chicago. The White Sox are 0-6 in Floyd's last 6 starts against Minnesota. The Twins are 14-2 in their last 16 meetings at Chicago. Twins ML.
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07-08-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 3-10 | Win | 103 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Boston Red Sox are playing very good baseball right now, and Josh Beckett appears to be healthy once again. Beckett has a stellar 1.17 ERA at home this year. Zach Britton is going through some growing pains, and this is a Boston lineup that crushes lefties. The Orioles are 12-39 in their last 51 games at Boston. The Red Sox are 11-0 in Beckett's last 11 starts as a favorite of -200 or more. I think this game has a real chance to get ugly. Take the Red Sox -1.5.
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07-08-11 | Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates -131 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Chicago Cubs burned me yesterday with their miracle comeback from down 8-0, but I'm going to go against them again in this one. The Pirates are in the NL Central division race in the final week before the All-Star break, which is quite amazing. James McDonald has an impressive 2.98 ERA at home and I think he'll silence the Cubs bats. Rodrigo Lopez strikes me as a very inconsistent pitcher, and I think the Pirates can get to him. The Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games that McDonald has started. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 coming off a day off. Take the Pirates ML.
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07-07-11 | San Diego Padres +106 v. San Francisco Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day* Barry Zito has made two solid starts since coming off the DL, but I don't think he can be trusted just yet. The Giants are 4-10 in Zito's last 14 starts, and he has been bad at home in the last couple years. Cory Luebke hasn't allowed a run since moving into the Padres starting rotation, and I think he is a very good young pitcher. The Giants lineup isn't very good at all, and I think the Padres have the edge in starting pitching in this one. San Diego is 14-3 in their last 17 games at San Francisco. Take the Padres.
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07-07-11 | Oakland A's v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Rich Harden just came back from the DL, and I think this is a bad matchup for him. Harden has a career 5.48 ERA at Texas, and the ball is flying extremely well right now in Texdas because of the 100 degree heat without too much humidity. Derek Holland is starting for Texas, and he has a 6.8 ERA at home this year. The over is 5-0 in Holland's last 5 starts. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Expect a high scoring affair in the heat Thursday night. Take the over.
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07-07-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 4-10 | Win | 126 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Boston Red Sox are hitting the cover off the ball of late, and the Baltimore Orioles pitching staff hasn't been getting anyone out. I think this is a bad combination for the Orioles, who will be getting to Boston very late Wednesday night. Andrew Miller is starting to show that he can be a successful starting pitcher in the majors, and the Orioles only average 3.66 runs per game agaisnt lefties. The Red Sox have the advantage in all areas of this game. Take Boston -1.5 here.
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07-07-11 | Chicago Cubs v. Washington Nationals -113 | 10-9 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Chicago Cubs are 5-16 in their last 21 road games. The Washington Nationals are 14-3 in their last 17 home games. Livan Hernandez may not be young anymore, but he continues to be a pretty good starting pitcher. Hernandez is especially good at home, where he pitches to the ballpark's dimensions very well. The Nationals are 4-1 in Hernandez's last 5 home starts against the Cubs. The Cubs are 0-4 in Garza's last 4 road starts. At just a little more than even money, I like the Nationals ML here.
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07-07-11 | Chicago Cubs v. Washington Nationals UNDER 8 | 10-9 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Livan Hernandez has a 2.49 ERA at home this year. Matt Garza has pitched much better than his record indicates. Mike Muchlinkski is the umpire in this one and he is a solid 'under' umpire. The under is 6-1 in his last 7 games behind the dish, and he has a wide strike zone. The under is 6-1-1 in the Cubs last 8 games. The under is 19-8-1 in Hernandez's last 28 home starts. The wind is expected to be blowing in during this game. I expect a low scoring pitcher's duel in this one. Take the under.
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07-06-11 | San Diego Padres v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* Madison Bumgarner has had one bad start all year. Unfortunately for me it was the game I chose to take the under on a couple weeks ago. Bumgarner went one third of an inning and gave up eight runs. In the rest of his starts this year he has been stellar. In fact, he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs since May other than that one meltdown a couple weeks ago. I'm guessing he'll be good against a poor Padres lineup here. Moseley is underrated for San Diego, and the Giants lineup is very weak. The temperature is expected to be in the upper 50's, so the ball won't be carrying. Take the under.
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07-06-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | 5-13 | Win | 108 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Baltimore Orioles aren't a very good road team at all. Jeremy Guthrie is on the hill for the Orioles, and the Orioles are 7-20 in his last 27 road starts. Alexi Ogando is on the hill for the Rangers and the Rangers are 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. Ogando has electric stuff and I think he can tame this Orioles lineup. The Rangers have a very good lineup and the ball should be flying in the 100 degree heat on Wednesday night. The Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 at Texas. Take Texas -1.5.
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07-06-11 | Philadelphia Phillies +119 v. Florida Marlins | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Play* The Phillies are the much better team here and past history leads me to think we are getting a very nice price on this one. Kyle Kendrick isn't the most consistent pitcher out there, but he isn't too bad. The Phillies are also 4-0 in his last 4 starts against Florida. Anibal Sanchez is a very good pitcher, but the Marlins have lost four straight times when he starts against the Phillies. The Phillies have a much better lineup, and I like them as an underdog in this one. Phillies Moneyline.
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07-05-11 | Detroit Tigers -114 v. Los Angeles Angels | 0-1 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* You could make a solid argument that Justin Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball today. Verlander at just a little more than even money is tough to overlook. I also consider the Detroit Tigers a better team overall than the Los Angeles Angels. The Tigers have more hitting stars and a pretty good bullpen. The Angels often struggle to score runs, which should make it tough for them to get to Verlander. The Tigers are 10-1 in Verlander's last 11 starts. Verlander is in top form right now and I like the Tigers here. Detroit ML.
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07-05-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 9 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* Zach Duke hasn't been very good so far this year, and he has been even worse at Miller Park in his career. Duke has a career ERA of 8.13 in his 11 starts at Miller Park. Randy Wolf doesn't have dominating stuff, and he relies on getting the corners. Tony Randazzo is the umpire here, and he is one of the better 'over' umpires in the league. Randazzo will likely squeeze the zone on both of these soft tossing lefties. Wolf has a career ERA of 6.49 when Randazzo is behind the plate. The over is 4-0 in the Brewers last 4 games. The over is 6-2 in Arizona's last 8. Take the over.
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07-05-11 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Boston Red Sox have the best lineup in baseball right now, and on this particular occasion they also have one of the best pitchers in baseball on the hill. Jon Lester has been great of late, and he has a solid history against Toronto. Brian Knight is behind the plate, and Lester has yet to allow a run with Knight as the umpire in 16 innings pitched. Brett Cecil is struggling with his mechanics, and this Red Sox lineup should be able to make him pay. The Red Sox are 38-13 in Lester's last 51 home starts. Expect a comfortable win here. Boston -1.5.
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07-04-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Texas Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
*5 Star Top Play Total* Chris Jakubauskas is slated to start for the Baltimore Orioles. I continue to believe that he won't last much longer in the Orioles rotation. He has never proven capable of keeping a starting role, and this is a terrible matchup for him. It is expected to be 95 degrees in this game and the wind will be pushing the ball out toward center and left field. Colby Lewis has been erratic this year and Jakubauskas is liable to get hit around pretty hard by this strong Rangers lineup. The over is 6-1 in Lewis' last 7 home starts. The over is 9-4 in the Orioles last 13. Expect a high scoring game. Take the over big here!
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07-04-11 | Philadelphia Phillies -101 v. Florida Marlins | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Anytime I can get a team like the Phillies at even money I will be pretty interested, especially when the other team is a team below .500. Ricky Nolasco hasn't been very good this year and Vance Worley continues to surprise people with his quality pitching. The Phillies lineup is very good now that the team has gotten healthy, and they have a huge edge in that department. The Phillies have dominated Florida on the road in the past. Philadelphia is 21-7 in their last 28 games at Florida. Take the Phillies.
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07-04-11 | San Diego Padres v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Tim Lincecum is back on his game and the San Diego Padres are a team he has dominated in the past. Lincecum also has a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts overall. Clayton Richard started the season poorly, but he has been pitching well of late. San Francisco's offense isn't very good at all now with all the injury problems they have had. The under is a stunning 21-5-1 in the Giants last 27 home games. The under is 4-1-1 in Richard's last 6 starts against the Giants. Take the under.
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07-03-11 | Florida Marlins v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Texas Rangers haven't been playing great baseball of late, but C.J. Wilson has proved he is more than capable of being the stopper for this team. Wilson has been exactly what they need in an ace. Wilson has a great 3.14 ERA despite pitching in a hitters ballpark. The Rangers are an amazing 22-5 in Wilson's last 27 home games. While Javier Vazquez has pitched much better in the last three games, I still don't trust him to pitch well here. Texas has plenty of guys who can punish him for his mistakes, and Vazquez still has a 5.83 ERA this year. The Marlins are 1-6 in his last 7 starts. I think Texas wins comfortably. Texas -1.5.
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07-03-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Oakland A's UNDER 6.5 | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* This is a matchup between two of the best young starting pitchers in all of baseball. Ian Kennedy has a stellar 2.28 ERA on the road this year. The under is 5-1 in his last 6 road starts. Gio Gonzalez has a 2.17 ERA at home this year, and he has a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts. The under is 5-1 in his last 6 starts overall. D.J. Reyburn is behind home plate, and that is a good thing for under bettors. The under is 11-1 in Reyburn's last 12 Sunday games behind the dish. It is also 9-2 in his last 11 overall. Take the under.
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07-03-11 | Kansas City Royals v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10 | 16-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* Coors Field is one of those parks where you absolutely have to know the weather forecast. On Sunday the conditions will be favorable for the ball to be flying out of this park in a big way. The temperature is expected to be about 93 or 94 degrees during this game, and with humidity levels expected to be at just 13% the ball will carry very well. Hochevar has been terrible on the road. The over is 19-5-2 in his last 26 road starts. The over is also 11-4 in Hammel's last 15 home starts. Jim Reynolds is behind the dish and he is known as one of the biggest over umpires in the game. The over is 37-17-2 in his last 56 Sunday games. Take the over.
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07-02-11 | San Diego Padres v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 6.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* Cory Luebke is a very good young pitcher who I believe has a solid future as a starting pitcher. Seattle and San Diego have two of the worst offenses in the majors. Doug Fister has pitched well all year, but he never gets much run support at all. The under is 12-3 in Seattle's last 15 games. The under is 6-1-1 in Fister's last 8 starts. Phil Cuzzi is the umpire behind the plate in this one, and he is a very solid under umpire. The under is 19-7-6 in his last 32 games behind home plate. I expect a pitcher's duel here. Take the under.
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07-02-11 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 6 | 1-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* You will rarely ever see a total set as low as 6, but this one is deservedly set extremely low. Here we have two poor offenses and two of the very best pitchers in the league. Jered Weaver has the AL's best ERA this year at 1.97, and Clayton Kershaw has a 2.93 ERA. Kershaw has gotten much more efficient with his pitches, which has allowed him to throw back to back complete games. These two faced off last week in a 3-2 Dodgers win, and I think this one will be just as low if not lower scoring. The under is 40-13-6 in Weaver's last 59 starts. Take the under.
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07-02-11 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 9 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Doug Eddings will be behind the dish in this one, and many consider him to be the best 'under' umpire in baseball. Eddings has a very wide strike zone, and I expect both pitchers to take advantage of this. Niemann has been inconsistent, but in his only outing with Eddings in his career he threw a 7 inning shutout. McClellan continues to be underrated and he has a 3.53 ERA on the road this year. Tampa Bay has been an under machine at home. The under is 40-11-2 in the Rays last 53 home games. Take the under.
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07-02-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Atlanta Braves OVER 7.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* Tim Hudson has been very good of late, but Interleague Play hasn't been kind to Hudson at all in the past. The Braves are 3-16 in Hudson's last 19 Interleague starts. In that 19 game span, Hudson has an ERA of 6.24. Jake Arrieta was removed from his last start with elbow issues, and I wonder if there won't be some residual problems on Saturday. Tim McClelland is the umpire here and he is a huge 'over' umpire. The over is 12-3 in his 15 games behind the plate this year, and he has called the lowest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the league. Take the over.
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07-02-11 | Pittsburgh: J McDonald v. Washington: L Hernadez UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Both of these pitchers are throwing the ball well of late, and neither offense is particularly good. John Lannan has a stellar 1.81 ERA at home this year. The under is 6-1 in Lannan's last 7 home starts. The under is 6-1 in the Pirates last 7 road games. This is the first game of a doubleheader, which means some regulars might be missing from the lineup here. With two weak lineups and two very capable starters, I think the under is a good value in this one. Take the under here.
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07-01-11 | San Francisco Giants v. Detroit Tigers -118 | 4-3 | Loss | -118 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star TGIF Bookie CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants dropped the last two games of their series with the Cubs. The way they lost those games was pretty surprising. The Giants have been a team that capitalizes on their chances and wins close games the last year or two. They lost both games on walkoff hits by the Cubs, and they have to be a bit deflated. Detroit is a good team at home (26-17), while the Giants are just 22-23 on the road. Brad Penny isn't great, but he does a good job keeping the ball in the yard at Detroit. Penny has a 3.28 ERA at home this year. Madison Bumgarner has been pretty good this year, but he doesn't much run support at all. The Tigers average 5.18 runs per game against lefties, while the Giants average only 3.40 against right-handers. How about this huge stat? The Tigers are 41-11 in their last 52 Interleague home games. The Giants are just 5-11 in Bumgarner's last 16 starts. I think this is a good value on the Tigers. Tigers ML is the play here.
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06-30-11 | Chicago White Sox v. Colorado Rockies OVER 9 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The White Sox and Rockies have played to two 3-2 final scores in the first two games of the series. I expect a much higher scoring affair on Thursday afternoon. Jake Peavy has been inconsistent of late and his 4.59 career ERA at Coors Field is nothing to write home about. Aaron Cook has yet to put together a quality start this year. The other major factor here is the weather. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 to 20 mph, which is a big help at Coors Field. The low humidity and hot temperatures will also help the ball fly well. Expect a high scoring affair. Take the over.
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06-30-11 | Boston Red Sox v. Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox definitely have a very strong lineup, but that lineup isn't as strong in this series as it normally is. I don't expect both Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez to start in this one, which means the Red Sox will be without one of their best bats. With Carl Crawford out the Sox are also without another big bat. The Phillies have struggled against top lefties this year. Jon Lester has a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts, while Cole Hamels has a 2.11 ERA in his last three. These two lefties should make life very difficult on the hitters. How about this stat? The under is 11-0 in the Phillies last 11 interleague games. Take the under.
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06-30-11 | Milwaukee Brewers v. New York Yankees -1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 106 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Yankees are an amazing 22-4 in day games this year. The Brewers are just 15-26 on the road this year. Randy Wolf has been pitching well of late for the Brewers, but I don't think he matches up well against this Yankees lineup that hits lefties very well. C.C. Sabathia gets the best run support in baseball, and he has a 2.25 ERA in day games this year. The Yankees have been absolutely dominating with Sabathia on the hill. The Yankees are 53-18 in his last 71 starts. They are 28-8 in his last 36 home starts. Take the Yankees -1.5.
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06-29-11 | Chicago White Sox +142 v. Colorado Rockies | 3-2 | Win | 142 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* Mark Buerhle has been tremendous of late. In fact, he had a string of nine straight quality starts broken in his last outing because of a rain delay. Buerhle has been exceptional in Interleague play. How good has he been? Buerhle has a 10-0 record and a 1.88 ERA in his last 14 Interleague starts. Ubaldo Jimenez has an ERA of 6.86 at home this year, and the oddsmakers continue to line his games as if it were last year. The Rockies are 2-7 in his last 9 home games. I think this is a very healthy big underdog. Take the White Sox.
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06-29-11 | St.Louis Cardinals v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 8.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chris Jakubauskas hasn't had a terrible game yet since getting moved into the Orioles starting rotation, but I believe he is capable of getting torched in any given start. Opponents are hitting .369 against him, and the Cardinals have a very good offense even without Pujols. Chris Carpenter hasn't been that good this year, especially on the road. Carpenter had a 5.57 ERA on the road this year. The over is 9-2-1 in the Cardinals last 12. The over is 6-1 in the Orioles last 7. Take the over.
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06-29-11 | St.Louis Cardinals -1.5 v. Baltimore Orioles | 5-1 | Win | 123 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* Chris Jakubauskas hasn't had a terrible game yet since getting moved into the Orioles starting rotation, but I believe he is capable of getting torched in any given start. Opponents are hitting .369 against him, and the Cardinals have a very good offense even without Pujols. Chris Carpenter has shown signs of coming around lately, and I think he is a much better pitcher than Jakubauskas. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals chase Jakubauskas early in this one. Take St. Louis -1.5.
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06-29-11 | Washington Nationals v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 6.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Both Dan Haren and Jordan Zimmerman have the ability to completely shutdown the opposition. Haren hasn't had his best stuff lately, but the Nationals lineup simply isn't very good. Zimmerman has been tremendous of late. Zimmerman has ten straight quality starts and he has an 0.89 ERA in his last three starts. Both pitchers are betting during the day, and this is a day game in LA. Zimmerman has a 2.51 ERA during the day. Haren has a 1.82 ERA during the day. The under is 6-1 in Zimmerman's last 7. The under is 7-1-2 in Haren's last 10 home starts. Take the under.
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06-29-11 | Kansas City Royals v. San Diego Padres UNDER 7 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Padres and the Royals are two of the weaker offenses in the majors. Tim Stauffer is one of the more underrated pitchers in the National League right now. Stauffer has been tremendous in San Diego. He has a 2.96 ERA at home this year, and the under is 11-4-1 in his last 16 home starts. Bruce Chen has pitched well for the Royals this year, and San Diego has struggled mightily to score runs at home this year. The under is 16-4-1 in the Padres last 21 home games against a lefty. Take the under.
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06-28-11 | Washington Nationals +118 v. Los Angeles Angels | 5-11 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* Jason Marquis has quietly put together a solid season in 2011. Marquis has a career 4.24 ERA on the road, which is half a run better than his career ERA at home. The Nationals lost a tough one Monday night at Los Angeles, and I think they'll be fighting hard to get the series tied back up. The Nationals are an impressive 16-5 in Marquis' last 21 starts overall. The Angels are just 2-7 in their last 9 home games. Washington has been the hottest team in baseball of late, and I think this is another good spot for them. Washington ML.
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06-28-11 | Kansas City Royals v. San Diego Padres -119 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Kansas City Royals are 10-22 on the road so far this year. San Diego isn't a great home team either, but they have been playing well of late. Felipe Paulino is a streaky pitcher and his inconsistency can catch up to him on the road at times. Clayton Richard is 0-5 at home this year, but he has a stellar 2.25 ERA in his home starts. The Royals are 13-38 in their last 51 road games against a left-handed starter. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 at San Diego. Take the Padres here.
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06-28-11 | Cleveland Indians v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 155 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Arizona Diamondbacks have lost three straight and they have slipped back a couple games in the NL West Standings. Daniel Hudson has been the stopper for them multiple times this year and I think he will be once again on Tuesday. Hudson has a quality start in 8 of his last 10 starts, and the DBacks are 6-0 in his last 6 home games. Josh Tomlin has a career 5.06 ERA on the road, and he has allowed six earned runs in each of his last two road starts. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a better lineup and they have the better pitcher here. Arizona -1.5.
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06-28-11 | Chicago White Sox v. Colorado Rockies OVER 9 | 2-3 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Coors Field can be the best hitters ballpark in the majors when the conditions are right. Low humidity on a summer day is great for an over, and that is what is expected on Tuesday. Gavin Floyd and Jason Hammel have both been getting hit hard of late. Floyd has an ERA of 6.16 in his last three starts and Hammel has a 6.23 ERA in that span. The over is 5-2 in Floyd's last 7 starts. The over is 11-3 in Hammel's last 14 home starts. I expect both teams to put up quite a few runs here. Take the over.
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06-28-11 | Boston Red Sox v. Philadelphia Phillies -121 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Red Sox/Phillies CASH* The Boston Red Sox have been red hot of late, but don't overlook the Philadelphia Phillies at all. The Phillies have a better pitching staff, and once they get completely healthy their lineup is one of the best in the majors as well. Josh Beckett has been good this year, but he is coming off a viral illness that has weakened him for several days. Cliff Lee has been pitching as well as ever of late. Lee has allowed just one run in his last 33 innings pitched! He has thrown two straight complete game shutouts. The Sox will be without Crawford and Ortiz in this one. The Phillies are 30-13 at home. Take the Phillies ML.
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06-27-11 | Kansas City Royals v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jeff Francis hasn't been pitching well of late, especially on the road. Francis has a 5.94 ERA in his last three starts, and he has a 6.93 ERA on the road this year. Mat Latos hasn't had his 2010 form this year. Latos hasn't been bad, but he has been mediocre. The Royals actually hit for a decent average, and I think they'll loop in several hits in this big park. The over is 3-0-1 in the Royals last 4 road games. The over is 5-1 in the Padres last 6 games. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two. Take the over.
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06-27-11 | Cleveland Indians v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Cleveland Indians had a game late Sunday night in San Francisco and must travel to Arizona, while the DBacks finished up earlier Sunday afternoon and came back from Detroit. The Indians are reeling right now, while the DBacks are in a fight for the top spot in the NL West. Mitch Talbot has been inconsistent this year, and the DBacks have the bats to make him pay for his mistakes. The Indians bats have been silent of late and Ian Kennedy is a very underrated pitcher at this point in his career. Kennedy should probably make the All-Star team and I think he'll pitch well here. Cleveland is 5-22 in their last 27 as an underdog. Take Arizona -1.5.
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06-27-11 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Minnesota Twins -114 | 15-0 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Twins have lost five straight after going 12-2 for a 14 game span. The reason for the Twins failure of late? The offense has been terrible. It should be noted that all five of those losses came on the road, and the Twins have generally played much better at home over the last few years. Nick Blackburn starts in this one, and Blackburn has a 3.46 career ERA at home. Blackburn has a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts. Chad Billingsley has been terrible on the road (6.49 ERA this year on the road). The Dodgers lineup isn't very impressive either. I like the Twins to get it done at home.
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06-26-11 | New York Mets v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Ballpark at Arlington is a great hitters park when the "wind tunnel effect" is on, and tomorrow should be perfect conditions for that effect. A wind in from right center actually pushes fly balls out toward center and left, resulting in quite a few long balls. The same effect was there on Saturday and the finals was 14-5. Derek Holland has struggled at home (6.03 ERA) and Dillon Gee has never pitched in Texas. The 98 degree temperature with low humidity should help the ball fly. Take the over.
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06-26-11 | Washington Nationals v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals offense is not very good at all, but their pitching staff has been brilliant of late. Livan Hernandez has been underrated by the books for quite some time now. The under is 17-7-2 in his last 26 road games. Phillip Humber is another underrated pitcher by the books, and the under is 9-4 in his last 13 starts overall. Marty Foster is a nice under umpire behind the plate for this one as well. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 10 to 15 mph. Take the under.
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06-26-11 | Cincinnati Reds +101 v. Baltimore Orioles | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Reds are a streaky team, and I believe they are starting to play better baseball. Joey Votto is starting to swing the bat very well once again and the Reds pitchers are starting to get healthy. Homer Bailey will start in this one and Bailey has been good this year in limited action. Jeremy Guthrie is on the mound for the Orioles, and the Orioles are just 5-10 in his 15 starts this year. The Reds are 20-7 in Bailey's last 27 starts. The Orioles have a serious long-term trend that is amazing on Sunday. Baltimore is just 36-76 in their last 112 Sunday games. Take Cincinnati.
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06-25-11 | Atlanta Braves -127 v. San Diego Padres | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Jair Jurrjens has been the best pitcher in the National League so far this year, but he continues to be undervalued by the books. Jurrjens has the best ERA in the league, and the Braves are 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Dustin Mosely has been good this year, but the Padres offense isn't good at all. The Padres are 1-4 in Mosely's last 5 home starts. The Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games at San Diego. The Braves have gotten healthier of late, and they clearly have a better offense than the Padres. I'll take the team with the better pitching staff and lineup. Take Atlanta.
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06-25-11 | New York Mets v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | 14-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* Alexi Ogando has been terrific in every start this year except for two, and both of those were against the Yankees. The Mets don't have even close to as much offensive firepower, and the Mets have Jon Niese starting in this game. Niese is a decent pitcher, but he is a lefty, and the Rangers feast on left-handed starters. The Rangers 6-2 in their last 8 against a left-handed starter, and they average 5.5 runs per game against lefties. The Rangers are 4-0 in Ogando's last 4 home starts. I like the Rangers to win this one easily. Rangers -1.5.
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06-25-11 | Colorado Rockies v. New York Yankees -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 104 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Colorado Rockies took the first game of the series last night from the New York Yankees, but I think this is a good spot for the Yankees. Aaron Cook recently came off the disabled list, and he hasn't looked very sharp in limited action so far this year. C.C. Sabathia is always tough to beat at home, and the Yankees average 8 runs per game when Sabathia is on the hill. The Yankees are 11-2 in Sabathia's last 13 Saturday starts. The Yankees are 27-8 in Sabathia's last 35 starts at home. I think the Yankees win this comfortably. Yankees -1.5.
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06-24-11 | Cleveland Indians v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Cleveland Indians don't hit left-handers very well, and Johnathan Sanchez has been pitching fairly well this year. Sanchez has a 3.23 ERA at home this year. Carlos Carrasco is pitching brilliantly of late for the Indians. San Francisco's offense is severely short-handed right now, and the Giants simply don't have that much firepower. Carrasco has a stunning 0.42 ERA in his last three starts. The under is 19-7 in the Giants last 26 home games. The forecast calls for 55 degrees in this one, which means the ball shouldn't travel well at all. I like the under.
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06-24-11 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Houston Astros UNDER 7 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Wandy Rodriguez is one of the best pitchers in the National League, but he doesn't quite get the publicity he deserved. Rodriguez has thrown a quality start in seven straight games. In his last three starts he has an ERA of 1.00. The under is 7-1-1 in his last 9 starts. James Shields has an ERA of 2.40 in 2011, and at this point he is a leading contender for the Cy Young Award in the American League. The Astros offense isn't that great, and both of these pitchers often pitch deep into the game. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two. Take the under.
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06-24-11 | Oakland A's v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* Guillermo Moscoso is on the hill for Oakland. Moscoso has a solid 3.4 ERA in the majors this year, but I don't think that will continue. Moscoso had an ERA above 4 in AAA and he doesn't have dominating stuff. He hasn't faced very good lineups thus far, but that will change when he faces Philly on Friday night. Vance Worley has started five games for the Phillies and four of those starts have been good ones. Oakland's offense is poor and they have committed more errors than anyone in baseball. I think there is a lot of value on Philadelphia -1.5.
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06-23-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks -109 v. Kansas City Royals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* Arizona has taken the first two games in this three game set. Kansas City is usually decent at home, and it would be easy to think they'll likely salvage a game at home. I like the spot for the Diamondbacks in this one. Arizona moved to 7 games above .500 last night and they now lead the NL West by half a game. Daniel Hudson has won five straight starts and he has an ERA of 1.23 in his last three starts. Paulino has been good so far this year, but his past history tells me he is due for regression. The Diamondbacks have a better lineup and a big edge on the mound here. Take Arizona.
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06-23-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Both of these teams are 37-37, but neither team has an impressive offense. It has been the pitching of both the Mariners and Nationals that have helped them surprise many people. Michael Pineda is as good as any young pitcher in the big leagues. He has thrown a quality start in 10 of his 13 starts in the majors. Jason Marquis is a sinker ball pitcher, and when he is on he can be tough to hit. The under is 6-1 in the Mariners last 7 games. This is a getaway day and that usually means some top players getting a day of rest, which should help as well. Take the under.
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06-22-11 | Minnesota Twins +132 v. San Francisco Giants | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Minnesota Twins have managed to win 15 of their last 17 games despite missing some very key contributors on offense. Even without Thome, Kubel, Morneau, etc. I believe the Twins have a better lineup than the Giants. The Twins still have Mauer, Young, and some able youngsters in the lineup. Vogelsong has been terrific this year, but this hot Twins team can probably scratch across a few runs. I don't expect the Giants to get too many off Blackburn. I was very surprised at the value on this game, which I put at about pick'em. Take the Twins.
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06-22-11 | Minnesota Twins v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6.5 | 1-5 | Win | 110 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night Total* Nick Blackburn and Ryan Vogelsong are both on a terrific run right now. Blackburn has only allowed more than two earned runs on one occasion in his last nine starts. Vogelsong has an ERA of 0.96 at home this year. Neither of these offenses are very good to start with, and both are dealing with a ton of injuries right now. The under is 25-12-3 in Blackburn's last 40 road starts. The under is 8-0 in Vogelsong's last 8 starts overall. Look for a pitcher's duel in San Francisco on Tuesday. Take the under.
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06-22-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks -117 v. Kansas City Royals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Kansas City Royals have come back to earth in a big way over the last month, while the Diamondbacks continue to outperform expectations. One of the main reasons Arizona has been successful is their young talent at starting pitcher. Ian Kennedy is a very good young starter, and I think he gives Arizona the distinct pitching advantage in this one. In addition, the Diamondbacks lineup has more pop than the Royals. The DBacks are 5-1 in Kennedy's last 6 road starts. The Royals are 2-7 in their last 9 home games. Take Arizona.
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06-22-11 | Houston Astros v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Brett Myers has made one start at Texas and he lasted just two innings while allowing five earned runs. Colby Lewis has been awful in the month of June in his career (6.30 ERA) and he has a 7.44 ERA at home this year. The hot weather generally helps the ball travel well here, and there should be a bit of a wind tunnel effect in this game. The over is 12-5-1 in Myers' last 18 starts. The over is 6-0 in Lewis' last 6 home starts. The over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. I expect a high scoring affair here. Take the over.
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06-22-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* In this one we get two very good left-handed pitchers, and I like taking the under in those instances. Erik Bedard was giving up the long ball at the beginning of the year, but he has been great in his last ten starts. Bedard hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last 10 starts. John Lannan has a stellar 1.77 ERA in his last three starts and he has a 1.84 ERA at home this year. Neither team's lineup is very good against lefties. I think both starting pitchers will pitch well. Take the under.
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06-22-11 | Colorado Rockies v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -117 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Sam Holbrook is the umpire behind the plate in this one, which means the 'over' is worth a hard look. The over is 12-3 in his 15 games behind the dish this year. Holbrook has a tiny strike zone, and I think that will make a difference in this game. Both of these pitchers really try to work the edges (especially Tomlin) and without an umpire that will give them the corners they will likely struggle. Tomlin started out hot this year, but he has been bad of late. Hammel is very inconsistent. The total is set low here, and the wind will be blowing out. Take the over.
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06-22-11 | Detroit Tigers +100 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Rick Porcello had a terrible start at Coors Field in his last outing, but before that start he had been pitching very well. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he'll bounce back against a weak Dodgers lineup. The Tigers have a far better lineup, and Detroit is looking to avoid the sweep in this one. Ted Lilly has a 6.03 ERA when pitching during the day this year. The Dodgers are just 5-13 in their last 18 Interleague games. The Tigers are 5-2 in Porcello's last 7 road starts. Take Detroit.
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06-21-11 | Minnesota Twins v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 | 9-2 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Minnesota Twins and the San Francisco Giants have a lot in common right now. The Twins and Giants are both missing several key hitters from their lineup, and both teams are getting great efforts from their pitching staff of late. Carl Pavano has allowed just four runs in his last three starts, and he should do well against the Giants offense in this pitchers ballpark. Madison Bumgarner has a poor record this year, but he has pitched quite well. Bumgarner has a solid 3.21 ERA in 2011. The under is 18-7-1 in the Giants last 26. Take the under.
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06-21-11 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Atlanta Braves OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* Mike Minor has an ERA of 5.4 in his major league career so far. The Toronto Blue Jays bats have been cold of late, but they are terrific against lefties. I expect Bautista and company to snap out of their funk in this one. Zach Stewart is pitching in only his second major league game, and this will be his first on the road. The Braves offense hasn't been good of late, but once again I feel like this is a good spot for them. Heyward is healthy and McCann is crushing the ball right now. Angel Campos is behind the dish, and he is one of the best 'over' umpires in the business. The over is 9-2-2 in Minor's last 13 starts. Take the over.
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06-21-11 | Los Angeles Angels -126 v. Florida Marlins | 2-5 | Loss | -126 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Florida Marlins have lost 18 of their last 19, and they have dropped 11 straight games. The streak obviously has to come to an end at some point, but I don't like their matchup in this one. Javier Vazquez has been terrible this year. Vazquez has an ERA of 8.2 at home, and the Marlins are 0-5 in his last 5 starts. Ervin Santana has been pretty solid this year, and the Angels have been awesome in Interleague play in the past few years. The Angels are 55-25 in their last 80 Interleague Games. Take the Angels ML.
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06-20-11 | Houston Astros v. Texas Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
*5 Star Top Play Total* The Texas Rangers have a dangerous lineup, and they absolutely thrive on hitting left-handed pitching. J.A. Happ is a flyball pitcher and that isn't a good thing on a hot Texas night in Arlington. This is a park that has a wind tunnel effect at times, which pushes the ball straight out toward center, and Monday's conditions appear ripe for that to happen. I expect a lot of home runs and some difficult conditions for the pitchers. Derek Holland has an ERA over 5 at home in his career, and the over is 6-1 in his last 7 at home. I expect a high scoring affair. Take the over big in this one.
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06-20-11 | Los Angeles Angels v. Florida Marlins UNDER 7 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* Anibal Sanchez is a very good pitcher, who has proven he has no-hit stuff when he is on his game. Jered Weaver has a 2.06 ERA this year and he has been consistently very good. Neither of these teams has a strong offense. Mike Stanton is having eye issues and might miss the game. These are two lineups that struggle to put 3 or 4 runs on the board in a normal situation, and these pitchers are both certified aces. The under is an amazing 38-13-6 in Weaver's last 57 starts overall. Take the under.
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06-20-11 | San Diego Padres v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Boston Red Sox have been lighting up virtually every pitcher in sight of late. Wade LeBlanc will start Monday night for the Padres, and he has been terrible on the road in his short career in the majors. LeBlanc has an ERA of 6.24 on the road in his career. Andrew Miller will start for the Red Sox, and Miller has an overall career ERA of 5.84. The Padres offense isn't very good, but they have been better on the road. The wind will be blowing out and I could see Boston putting up 10 by themselves, so I like the over in this one. Take the over.
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06-19-11 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Seattle Mariners +1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Value Play* The Seattle Mariners have surprised me quite a bit this year. They have split the first two games with the Phillies, and I think they'll put a lot into trying to win this series against Philadelphia. This should be a low scoring affair with two solid lefties pitching. Jason Vargas has been terrific at home in his career, and Cole Hamels is coming off a start where he tweaked his lower back. Seattle is 11-5 in their last 16 home games. I think the Mariners will either win this one or at least keep it very close. Seattle +1.5.
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06-19-11 | Detroit Tigers -135 v. Colorado Rockies | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Justin Verlander is one of the top two pitchers in the majors right now (Halladay being the other). Verlander just isn't letting anyone get on base this year. He has an amazing WHIP of 0.888. Verlander has dominating stuff and he gets better as the game goes on. I unsuccessfully played the Tigers on Saturday as a big underdog. The Tigers lost 5-4 despite outhitting the Rockies 12 to 6. I think the Tigers have the better offense and the much better pitcher. Aaron Cook has four apperances with Cederstrom behind home plate and his ERA is 6.11 in those games. The Tigers are 21-5 in Verlander's last 26 Sunday Starts! Take Detroit.
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06-19-11 | San Diego Padres v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Twins are slowly getting healthy, but they have quite a ways to go. Danny Valencia might miss Sunday's game, and they are still without Kubel, Morneau, Thome, and others. San Diego will likely be without Hawpe, and this Padres offense just isn't very good. Francisco Liriano can be dominating when he is on his game, and he has been on it of late. I don't see San Diego putting up many runs. Dustin Mosely has been underrated this year and he has an impressive 3.16 ERA. I like the value on the under.
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06-19-11 | Florida Marlins v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Florida Marlins will have to turn things around at some point, but I don't think this is the game they'll do it. I have successfully played against Florida a couple times in the past week, and I think this pitching mismatch is a good opportunity to do so once again. James Shields has been terrific this year, especially at home (1.99 ERA at home). Chris Volstad has been awful this year (8.51 ERA on the road in 2011). The Rays are 10-3 in Shields' last 13 starts. The Marlins are 0-11 in their last 11 games against a right-handed pitcher. Tampa Bay -1.5.
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06-19-11 | Texas Rangers v. Atlanta Braves -102 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* Jair Jurrjens is one of the best pitchers in the National League, and it is rare to be able to get him at just about even money at home. The Braves haven't been playing well of late, but I still think they have a good team. Atlanta has the deepest bullpen in baseball, and they have a great starting staff. Alexi Ogando has been great this year, but he was hit hard by the Yankees last time out. The Braves are 12-3 in Jurrjens last 15 home starts. The Braves are 12-2 in their last 14 during game three of a series. Take Atlanta.
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06-19-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Washington Nationals -135 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
*5 Star Top Play Blowout* The Washington Nationals are red hot right now. Washington has won eight straight games. Baltimore is going the opposite direction. The Orioles have lost six of their last seven games. Baltimore will be without Brian Roberts, Vlad Guerrero, and possibly Luke Scott as well on Sunday. The biggest reason for this pick is I simply don't believe Chris Jakubauskas is a major league starting pitcher. Jakubauskas pitched well against Oakland in his first start this year, but he was very shaky against Toronto last time out. The Nationals bats are hot now, and I don't see him cooling them off. The Orioles struggle badly against lefties and Gorzelanny appears to be healthy now. Take Washington in this one.
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06-19-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Both of these pitchers have been underrated this year. Justin Masterson started out extremely hot. He has cooled off a bit of late, but he has still been pretty good. Jeff Karstens has flown under the radar, but he has a stellar 2.66 ERA this year. The wind is expected to be blowing in from center field at about 10 mph in this one. Ron Kulpa is behind the plate in this one, and he has been a solid 'under' umpire for quite some time. The under is 4-0 in Karstens last 4 starts. The under is 5-1 in Masterson's last 6 starts. Take the under.
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06-18-11 | Detroit Tigers +145 v. Colorado Rockies | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Big Dog* The Detroit Tigers are a pretty solid team right now. With Jackson, Martinez, Boesch, Cabrera, etc. they have an impressive lineup. Phil Coke is a decent starter and Ubaldo Jimenez continues to be overrated by the books this year. Jimenez hasn't been even close to as good as he was last year, but they continue to line him as if it is 2010. I think at this point the game deserves to be close to a pick'em and instead the Rockies are big favorites. I like the value on the Tigers moneyline here.
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06-18-11 | Florida Marlins v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* Ricky Nolasco has an 8.38 ERA against Tampa Bay in four career starts. The Rays offense is capable of breaking out, and I think this is the perfect opportunity. Alex Cobb won't shut anyone completely down, and the Marlins should be able to put up a few runs here. Tim McClelland is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best 'over' umpires in the game. McClelland has the lowest called strike percentage of any umpire this year. The over is 8-2 in his last 10 games. Take the over here.
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06-18-11 | Florida Marlins v. Tampa Bay Rays -124 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Florida Marlins are now 1-16 in their last 17 games overall. Ricky Nolasco takes the hill in this one, but I don't think that is a good thing for the Marlins. Nolasco has started four games in his career against Tampa Bay and his ERA is 8.38. Alex Cobb has a solid 3.57 ERA so far this year and I think he can tame this limited Marlins offense pretty well. Tim McClelland is behind the dish in this one and the home team is 36-15 in his last 51 games. I like Tampa Bay in this game.
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06-18-11 | San Diego Padres v. Minnesota Twins -134 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Hidden GEM* The Minnesota Twins are starting to get healthy, and they have now won 12 of their last 14 games. Joe Mauer makes a huge difference in the middle of the lineup, and some of the young guys like Revere and Casilla are starting to hit much more consistently. I think Scott Baker is an underrated pitcher for the Twins. Baker has an impressive 3.55 ERA for the season, and he is consistently very good. San Diego's offense simply isn't very good at all. The Padres are just 16-35 in their last 51 Interleague Games. Take the Twins.
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06-18-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Paul Maholm and Carlos Carrasco have both been throwing very well of late. Maholm hasn't gotten much run support all year, but he has an impressive 3.12 ERA in 2011. The under is 11-2 in his 13 starts this year. Carrasco is a young pitcher with a lot of potential, and he has had much better command of late. Neither of these offenses are very strong, and I think the number here is set generously high. I think this will be a low scoring pitchers duel. Take the under in this matchup.
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06-18-11 | Texas Rangers v. Atlanta Braves -114 | 5-4 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Atlanta Braves are typically a very good home team, but they are just 2-5 in their last 7 home games. The Rangers took the first game of the series on Friday, but I look for Atlanta to even the series on Saturday. Matt Harrison is pitching for Texas and he is struggling with kidney stones, which has made it difficult on him to pitch effectively in his last couple starts. Derek Lowe has been solid at home, and the Braves are 5-0 in his last 5 starts at home. Take Atlanta in this one.
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06-18-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Washington Nationals UNDER 8 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* It would be tough to overstate just how good Jordan Zimmerman has been this year. He has eight straight quality starts, and his ERA in his last three starts is 0.86. Not surprisingly, the under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts. Brian Matusz has very good stuff and I think he is a future star. He pitched poorly last time out, but I think he'll bounce back against a weak Nationals offense. Washington is hitting just .215 against lefties. The under is 18-7-1 in Matusz's last 26 games. Take the under.
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