*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION Play* The Miami Marlins offense started out on fire this year, but they have been slowly regressing back toward where they should be of late. This Miami offense is certainly better than they have been, but they also aren't as good as they looked earlier this year. Dice K has pitched pretty well this year, and the Mets bullpen is the most improved in baseball from last year. Miami's Henderson Alvarez has an ERA well below 2 at home this year. The Mets offense is terrible, and the Marlins and Mets have a nice history of low scoring games.

The under is 7-0-1 in the Mets last 8 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0-1 in the Mets last 6 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 as an underdog. The under is 3-0-1 in Alvarez's last 4 home starts. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts with a total of 8 or lower.The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 between these teams in Miami. The under is 3-0-1 in Alvarez's last 4 starts vs. the Mets. A 42-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The St. Louis Cardinals have been playing better baseball of late. They were beaten in the series finale yesterday afternoon at home against the Mets. Bartolo Colon has been pitching very well, and he quieted this Cardinals lineup. David Buchanan starts in this one for the Phillies, who swept the Atlanta Braves in Atlanta earlier this week. Buchanan is a poor starter who really has no business being in the majors, and the Phillies are one of the worst teams in the NL East. It's a good spot to fade the Phillies here too. They come into this series feeling fat and happy about sweeping the Braves. Shelby Miller has been up and down, but he pitched 6 innings of shutout baseball against the Phillies last year. He has been great in his last two starts, and he has a 2.25 ERA at home in his career. This Cardinals team is better than they have shown this year, and they will pile up the wins between now and the end of the year. Good spot to back the Cardinals at plus money on the run line. The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 games in St. Louis. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The New York Yankees are 39-13 in their last 52 home games against Toronto. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Toronto starter Mark Buehrle. Buehrle is definitely due for some regression based on his numbers so far this year. He isn't getting better at this point in his career, and I expect his numbers to finish close to what they have in the last couple seasons. The Yankees have struggled against right-handers, but they hit lefties very well. Chase Whitley has quietly been excellent in his first few starts in the majors. The Blue Jays offense has cooled off dramatically in the last couple weeks. I like this matchup for New York. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Alfredo Simon has certainly pitched his best baseball of his career so far this year, but there's no doubt he is due for some serious regression. Simon's ERA is just 2.95 for the year, but his FIP is 4.48. Simon has benefited from a ridiculously low batting average on balls in play against him (.242). The league average is near .300. The Pirates offense has heated up in a big way of late. Cincinnati's offense is much much better with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce healthy. Todd Frazier is swinging it really well too. Edinson Volquez's control problems hurt him a lot against deep lineups like the Reds. A total set at just 7.5 with two pitchers I'm low on equals a strong over play for me. Take the over here. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago White Sox start Chris Sale in this one. Sale has essentially had one hiccup all year and that was the bad inning in LA when Mike Trout hit a grand slam off him. Sale has totally dominated the majority of the time this year. Sale is looking like a top five pitcher in the majors. What about Tim Hudson? Hudson is having a fantastic season in 2014. Hudson has a 1.81 ERA, and he has been remarkably consistent. The White Sox lineup has cooled off in a big way over the past few games, and between Hudson and this Giants bullpen I expect another poor game from the Sox offense. 

The under is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 home starts with the total at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in the White Sox last 5 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 home starts overall. The under is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 as a favorite. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open. The roof is scheduled to be open in this one despite the temperature being about 100 degrees at gametime. The dry heat really helps the ball fly well. Kyle Lohse is a solid pitcher, but he has struggled with homers here at Chase Field in the past. Last year he allowed three home runs in one outing at Chase Field. Wade Miley is allowing 1.5 HR's per 9 innings, and Miley has been much worse when the roof is open over the course of his career. Milwaukee's offense is very good this year with Braun, Ramirez, Gomez, and solid production from guys like Segura and Davis. The DBacks have been able to score at home. This total is set awfully low for a game with the roof open at Chase Field.

The over is 4-0-1 in Lohse's last 5 starts following a quality start. The over is 5-0 in Arizona's last 5. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. A 26-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Cincinnati Reds are 10-4 in Johnny Cueto's last 14 starts at PNC Park. Cueto has an ERA of just 1.81 in 14 career starts at PNC Park. That ERA is just remarkable given the large sample size. Cueto is throwing the ball better than ever so far this year. The Reds are finally healthy. This lineup is pretty good with a healthy Joey Votto and Jay Bruce in the middle of it. Billy Hamilton is swinging it well at the front of the lineup too. Pittsburgh's offense is too reliant on McCutchen, and Cumpton puts too many on base. The Reds have a huge pitching edge here. Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Washington Nationals were swept out of St. Louis, but before that series they were playing some very good baseball. St. Louis is a very good team, and I think Washington is starting to find their groove overall. Look for Washington to get back on track in this series against Houston. I've backed Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros before this season, but this price is just too skewed toward the Astros. Houston's bullpen is just atrocious, while the Nationals have the best bullpen in baseball. Tanner Roark has been very good this year, and the Nationals offense has hit left-handed pitching amazingly this year. The Nationals have an OBP of .338 against lefties this season. Washington is 5-0 in their last 5 as a home favorite. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games against the Astros. A 15-1 angle here. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers may not be a great team, but they are better than the oddsmakers believe. Milwaukee is leading the NL Central division for a reason. This team has no clear weakness. They have a solid starting rotation, a good bullpen, and a strong lineup from top to bottom. With a healthy Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez in the middle of the lineup, this lineup is much better than it was last season. Arizona has been awful at home all year, and they have been burning money when Brandon McCarthy pitches. The DBacks are 5-21 in McCarthy's last 26 starts. McCarthy isn't a bad pitcher, but he is prone to the big inning, and he struggles pitching at Chase Field. Wily Peralta has all the tools necessary to be a good starter in the bigs for a long time. All things considered, I see no reason for Arizona to be the favorite in this contest.

The Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing five runs or more last game. The DBacks are 0-6 in McCarthy's last 6 vs. the NL Central. They are 0-5 in his last 5 after the team scores 5 runs or more last game. They are 0-4 in McCarthy's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. A 27-0 angle. Take the Brewers. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Angels played into the 13th inning last night. There's a lot of tired arms in the bullpen going into this one. Hector Santiago and Mike Minor have both struggled to get past the 6th inning, and that could be a problem here with the tired pens. The Braves offense has an OBP of 40 points higher against left-handed pitchers than righties. The Angels are also very good against lefties. With a healthy Josh Hamilton added to the lineup, the Angels offense is one of the best in baseball. Mike Trout is locking back in, and Albert Pujols is seeing it well too. A total set this low is usually saved for two very good pitchers matching up, and I don't think that's the case here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Revenge Special* The Colorado Rockies have stolen the first two games from the San Francisco Giants. If you haven't followed this series closely, the Giants had command in both games before blowing them in the ninth inning. The way the Giants have lost both games have been absolutely heart breaking. One thing about this Giants team is they have a bunch of heart. Colorado is short-handed right now, and the Rockies have no business sweeping San Francisco in any town let alone on the road at AT&T Park. Madison Bumgarner is one of the best pitchers in the NL, and I expect him to be the stopper here. Juan Nicasio has an ERA over 14 (yes you read that right), in his last three contests. The Giants get some revenge. Take Giants -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago White Sox are a team I've been low on all year. They outperformed my expectations for quite a while, but they are finally coming back down to earth now. The White Sox lineup isn't very good, and now that opposing pitchers know how to pitch to Jose Abreu better, the Chicago White Sox are struggling to put up runs. Kansas City is as hot as anyone in baseball of late. Kansas City has won 9 of their last 10 games against the White Sox in Chicago. James Shields is the ace of this Royals staff. Shields has an ERA of 2.5 in his career at US Cellular Field. Andre Rienzo is pitching on 8 days of rest, which could alter things for him. Rienzo has an ERA above 5 for the year, and he doesn't have enough out pitches.

The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL Central. They are 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games overall. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a right-handed pitcher. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 4-0 in Shields' last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. The White Sox are 0-4 in Rienzo's last 4 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 46-0 trend supporting this selection. Take Kansas City -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error* The oddsmakers haven't quite caught onto Garrett Richards just yet, so we'll try to continue to take advantage of that. Richards has a 2.08 ERA on the road this year, and he has already allowed one run or less in six outings this year. Atlanta's lineup has struggled in a big way against right-handed pitching this year. The Braves are averaging just 3.37 runs per game against righties. Atlanta may be without Jason Heyward here too, and he is usually good against right-handers. Gavin Floyd has been torched by multiple guys in the Angels lineup (Stewart, Hamilton, Trout, Pujols, etc). I give the Angels the big lineup advantage and the starting pitching edge here.

The Angels are 5-0 in Richards' last 5 interleague starts. The Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite. They are 0-4 in their last 4 as a home favorite. They are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a right-hander. The Angels are 6-1 in Richards' last 7 as a favorite. A 25-1 angle. Take the Angels. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* I think it's wise to find as many opportunities as possible to fade Randy Wolf. Wolf simply isn't a big league caliber pitcher at this point in his career. It might take Miami a little while to figure that out, but I'm pretty sure they will come to that realization before the end of the season. Charlie Morton isn't a guy I'm excited to back, but he is an average big league pitcher, and that's saying a lot more than I can say about Wolf. Pittsburgh has the huge bullpen advantage, and the Pirates have hit left-handers well this year. Yelich may miss this game with an injury which is a boost to this play as well. Fade Wolf in this one. 

The Pirates are 4-0 in Morton's last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 road games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The Pirates are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The road team is 14-2 in Clint Fagan's last 16 games behind home plate. A 30-2 angle. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays have two of the worst offenses in baseball. Both of them have been ice cold at the plate of late. Tampa Bay did hit it better yesterday, but Jarred Cosart is a solid young pitcher for the Astros. Chris Archer has been amazing in three straight starts, and he should quiet this Astros lineup. I don't see either offense breaking out of a funk with this matchup. Look for a low scoring ugly game from the two offenses. 

The under is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on grass. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 5-0 in Archer's last 5 starts. The under is 6-0 in Houston's last 6 home games vs. a righty. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall vs. a right-hander. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. The under is 4-0 in the last  meetings between these teams. A 60-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Tim Lincecum isn't the same pitcher he used to be, but the San Francisco Giants are a much better team than the Colorado Rockies. Lincecum still pitches much better at home as well, and the Rockies are without Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer. This Rockies team is really in freefall right now. San Francisco has the best record in baseball, and they do all the little things well. The Giants have a massive bullpen advantage here. Jorge De La Rosa has an ERA above 4 at San Francisco, while Lincecum has an ERA of just above 3 at home against the Rockies. 

The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockies are 0-6 in their last 6 during game one of a series. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. the NL West. A 21-1 angle. Take the Giants. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Houston Astros offense is still one of the worst in baseball. Tampa Bay's offense has been worse than anyone in baseball over the last few weeks. These are teams that really struggle to string together hits. Alex Cobb hasn't been sharp in his last couple outings, but I believe he is a very good young pitcher and I like his chances to turn his luck around against Houston. Collin McHugh has been a great surprise for Houston and he punches out a lot of guys, so he should match up well against the Rays.

The under is 6-0 in Tampa Bay's last 6 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in The Rays last 4 as a road favorite. The under is 4-0 in Cobb's last 4 starts as a road favorite. The under is 5-0 in Houston's last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. A 37-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Kansas City Royals haven't hit left-handed pitching well at all this year. Jose Quintana has turned into a nice left-handed starter for the White Sox. Quintana has been remarkably consistent this year, but he is actually coming off one of his worst outings. Look for a bounce back from him. Jeremy Guthrie is no better than mediocre, but his numbers against the White Sox are great. The weather here should help as it will be a cool night (mid 50's) and the wind will be blowing in from center.

The under is 3-0-2 in KC's last 5 Friday games. The under is 5-0 in Guthrie's last 5 starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 6-0 in the White Sox last 6 vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows less than 2 runs in their last game. The under is 4-0 in Quintana's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 3-0-1 in Quintana's last 4 following a White Sox loss. The under is 5-0 in Quintana's last 5 starts vs. the Royals. The under is 4-0 in Guthrie's last 4 starts at Chicago. A 45-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The Atlanta Braves are a tough team to beat at home, but I like this spot for the Angels. C.J. Wilson is a quality lefty and the Braves have been downright awful against lefties all year. Aaron Harang has pitched over his head so far this season, and in his last couple starts he is showing signs of regression. This Angels lineup with Trout, Hamilton, and Pujols can definitely put the runs on the board. Atlanta's offense has been a major disappointment this year, and I think they'll need to put up several to win this one. Look for the Angels offense to lead the way to a win. Take Los Angeles. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Miami Marlins are hitting better than .270 against left-handed pitchers so far this year. Miami has been exceptional at home (22-11). The Pittsburgh Pirates are a team I look to fade when I get the shot this year, because I believe they are a bit overvalued based on last year's success. Jeff Locke isn't a guy that can be trusted, and the Marlins love to feast on those lefties. Nate Eovaldi is scheduled to start here (please note that Eovaldi's wife is pregnant and could go into labor at any time, so choose listed pitchers here instead of action) and I really like Eovaldi's stuff. He throws hard and has great movement on his fastball. Look for him to handle this subpar Pirates lineup. Take Miami. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Houston Astros are certainly better than they have been in the past couple years, but they still aren't a good team. Arizona has played well on the road. Wade Miley has been much better on the road than at home in his career. Miley has an ERA of less than 2 in two career starts against Houston. Scott Feldman is a streaky pitcher, and he has been hit around of late. Feldman has an ERA above 5 in his career when pitching at Minute Maid Park. Arizona was beaten last night by Dallas Keuchel, but Feldman isn't even close to the level of pitcher that Keuchel is right now. Arizona is 7-1 in their last 8 games at Houston. They are 21-7 in their last 28 games against the Astros overall. I see some value on the road team here. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Astros will start Dallas Keuchel in this one. Keuchel has progessively become the team's ace. He has a ground ball rate of over 65%, which means it is very tough to hit a home run against him. His consistency over his last few outings has been amazing. He is pitching deep into the games which helps us avoid the bad Astros bullpen. Arizona starts Brandon McCarthy here and he has pitched into bad luck this year. Opponents batting average on balls in play is far above the league average against him. George Springer is questionable in this one for Houston, and he has become their best hitter already. 

The under is 4-0-1 in Arizona's last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 interleague games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5. The under is 4-0 in McCarthy's last 4 starts during game three of a series. The under is 4-0 in the Astros last 4 home games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The under is 4-0 in Houston's last 4 interleague games. The under is 3-0-1 in Keuchel's last 4 when the opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 9-0 in home plate umpire Al Porter's last 9 games behind the plate. A 40-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Johnny Cueto and Hyun-Jin Ryu are fully capable of producing a masterpiece of a pitching duel. These guys both have shut down stuff, and they are in great form. Ryu has a 0.95 ERA on the road this year. He had a perfect game through seven innings in his first outing against these Reds this year. Cincinnati is batting just .214 as a team against lefties this year. Cueto has a 1.97 ERA overall this year, and he's been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. Don't be surprised if we see a 2-1 type of game here. Take the under in this contest. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays offense has finally cooled off a bit of late. Toronto's offense is very good, but they aren't as good as they looked for a few weeks in May. Phil Hughes has been a huge surprise this year for the Twins. Hughes has a 2.45 ERA on the road this season. He has really commanded his pitches extremely well this season. The youngster Marcus Stroman starts for Toronto here. Stroman has exceptional stuff and he has potential to be a star in the future. This Twins lineup isn't anything special, and they have cooled off of late as well. This is a get away day game in the early afternoon, which often means a couple regular players get the day off. It can mean quick innings late in the game as well. 

The under is 6-0-2 in the Twins last 8 games with the total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in the Jays last 5 with the total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in the Jays last 5 overall. The under is 6-0 in the Jays last 6 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 as a favorite. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a righty. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 39-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Atlanta Braves have one of the best pitching staffs and bullpens in baseball. Colorado is designed to outscore the opposition, but it's much harder for them to do that with two of their top three hitters out of the lineup. Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer are both on the DL with injuries. Colorado is really scuffling of late, and their bullpen is very capable of blowing games for them late. Atlanta's Mike Minor is a solid young pitcher. Juan Nicasio has a horrible 7.40 ERA in his career against Atlanta. Freddie Freeman, Justin Upton, and Jason Heyward have all torched him in the past. I give Atlanta the edge in every facet of this game. 

The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Atlanta is 4-0 in their last 4 games with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. The Rockies are 0-6 in Chris Conroy's last 6 games behind home plate. The Rockies are 1-9 in their last 10 overall. A 24-1 angle. Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Tom Koehler is a guy who pitched extremely well early in the season, but lately the signs of regression are clear. Koehler relies on deception and major league teams are now getting a good look at what he does. I don't see his positive run continuing. Colby Lewis has an ERA above 7 at home this year, and he has always struggled pitching in Texas' hitter friendly ballpark. The wind will be blowing out on another warm night in Texas here. The Rangers lost 17-7 on Monday night to Cleveland. I don't expect another one like that, but I do like the over.

The over is 7-0 in the Marlins last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 3-0-3 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. The over is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-0 in Texas' last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 during game one of a series. The over is 5-0 in Lewis' last 5 interleague starts. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 40-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Milwaukee Brewers bats are red hot of late. The over is 13-3-2 in the Brewers last 18 games. DiceK will be on the mound for the Mets, and he hasn't proven himself in quite a while. The Brewers will be patient and force some long at bats here. If they get to the bullpen early, that's a weakness for the Mets. Marco Estrada has been a disappointment this year. He hasn't been good against anyone of late. The wind will be blowing out slightly for this game as well. A total set this low is just too low with these guys on the mound. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals are playing much better baseball of late. Ryan Zimmerman gives the offense a big boost. Washington has the best bullpen in baseball so far this year. San Diego has the worst offense in baseball. Jordan Zimmermann has been lights out against San Diego in the past. In fact, Zimmermann has an ERA of just 0.86 in three starts at San Diego. Eric Stults is near the end of his career, and he doesn't have good stuff. The Nationals have been very good against lefties all year. Huge pitching edge to the Nationals here, and they do have the better offense as well.

Washington is 6-0 in Zimmermann's last 6 as a road favorite. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Padres are 1-8 in their last 9 games following a win. A 19-1 angle. A strong play here. Take Washington big! 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Jose Quintana has very quietly become a solid pitcher. He allowed no earned runs in his last appearance against the Dodgers. He has only allowed more than 3 earned runs in a game once all season. That is impressive consistency. C.J. Wilson has a career ERA of 3.00 against the White Sox. This White Sox lineup isn't as good as it showed earlier this year, and teams are finally figuring out how to get out Jose Abreu. The under is 5-0 in Quintana's last 5 Sunday starts. The under is 15-6 in his last 21 overall. Solid value here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Baltimore and Oakland have very solid offenses. The weather is heating up in Baltimore, and this is a park where runs can be put up in a hurry with hot weather and the right conditions. The temperature will be in the mid 80's here with the wind blowing out at about 10 mph. Adrian Johnson is a big over umpire and he'll be behind the plate here. The Orioles have guys who hit lefties well so they should get to Kazmir some here. Jimenez is a walks machine and I expect the A's to take advantage of some of those free passes. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves have tons of significant advantages against the Arizona Diamondbacks in this game, and yet they are barely even favored. Ervin Santana has been struggling of late, but he is a much better pitcher than Wade Miley. Santana has had some bad luck of late, and I still see him as a quality pitcher. The Diamondbacks lineup isn't particularly strong to start with, and now they are without both Pollock and Pennington. Atlanta has been bad against right-handers this year, but they hit lefties very well. The Braves are averaging 3.17 runs per game against righties and 5.01 against lefties. Wade Miley is a mediocre lefty who has struggled at home of late. Good situation here for Atlanta. 

The Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. They are 4-0 in Santana's last 4 during game 2 of a series. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. Arizona is 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The DBacks are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 0-4 in Miley's last 4 starts. They are 0-5 in his last 5 home starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 as a home underdog. Atlanta is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 41-0 angle. Take Atlanta big! 

*4 Star MLB Run Line Value* My loyal clients know that I don't like laying a big price in baseball. Laying -150 consistently over the course of the season is a recipe for disaster. That's why I'm not playing the Giants ML here. Instead, since I do believe they have a significant advantage, I'll play San Francisco on the run line. Tim Hudson has been fantastic this year, and his history against the Mets is great. Hudson has 30 career starts against the Mets and 21 of them have been quality starts. Hudson loves pitching in San Francisco, and this Mets lineup is scuffling. Bartolo Colon has lost quite a bit from last year to this year. At this big of a price, the run line is a great value. Take the Giants -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The oddsmakers still aren't high enough on Chris Sale. This guy is just absolutely dominating every team he faces this year. Sale has an ERA well under 2, and his peripherals suggest those numbers are no fluke at all. How about Sale's past history against the Angels? In 24 innings against the Angels, Sale has allowed just one run! Sale has a 0.38 ERA against the Angels. Matt Shoemaker is a mediocre prospect for the Angels, and the White Sox lineup has been better than expected this year. It likely won't take too many runs for Chicago here with Sale on the hill. Too short of a price on this elite lefty. Take the White Sox. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Houston Astros are definitely a better team than they were last year, but let's not start thinking this team is good by any stretch of the imagination. Scott Feldman is falling apart of late, and Feldman has an ERA of 10 in his career with home plate umpire Alfonso Marquez behind the dish. Kyle Gibson has been either great or horrible in every start this year. Gibson has a 1.85 ERA this year and he's up against a weak offense here. Also important to note is Minnesota's huge advantage in the bullpen. Rain is expected here, so with delays the bullpen may play a significant role. That makes me like Minnesota just enough to make it a play. Take the Twins. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays are hitting the cover off the ball of late. Shelby Miller has taken some significant steps back this year. He has an ERA above 4, and his peripheral stats suggest he is lucky that ERA isn't even higher. Miller isn't good on the road, and this Blue Jays lineup is capable of absolutely lighting up pitchers who are struggling. Mark Buehrle has been superb so far this year, and while I do believe he will regress at some point this year, the Cardinals have been awful against left-handed pitching all year. They just barely average 3 runs per game against lefties. Expect Toronto to hit Miller well and win comfortably.

The Cardinals are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. Toronto is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite. They are 6-0 in Buehrle's last 6 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. They are 4-0 in his last 4 home games. They are 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the Cardinals. A 33-0 trend. Take Toronto -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dallas Keuchel and Phil Hughes might not be on the radar for the casual fan of baseball this year, but these guys are both pitching very well right now. Keuchel is racking up ground ball outs at a record pace (65.5% ground balls this year so far). Hughes has been awesome and has started to show that form the Yankees knew he had many years ago. The Twins are awful against lefties and this Astros offense just isn't very good in general. Both of these pitchers have been going very deep in games of late, which makes me feel stronger about this game. 

The under is 5-0 in the Astros last 5 games against right-handed pitching. The under is 4-0-1 in Keuchel's last 5 starts. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 as an underdog. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in Hughes' last 4 starts. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has finally shown signs of life the last two days. They are slowly getting healthy. Getting Ben Zobrist back in the lineup was huge for them. Chris Young has been great at home, but on the road he isn't the same. Young is due for some regression as well based on the ridiculous amount of luck he's had on batted balls in play. Erik Bedard pitched well early this year, but I expected him to fall apart at some point. He has an ERA of just above 7 in his last three starts. The Mariners have been good against lefties this year. This total is set too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers meet Friday night in a rematch of last year's ALCS. Both teams come skidding into this game. Boston has been disappointing all year, while the Tigers have played bad baseball in the last couple weeks. These are still two very talented offenses that are tough to tame. Drew Smyly isn't pitching well of late, and the Red Sox have been terrific against lefties for the past couple seasons. De La Rosa is a decent prospect, but he'll be up agianst one of the best lineups in baseball here. A total of just 8 with these two offenses is awfully low unless there are elite pitchers on the mound. That isn't the case here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The San Francisco Giants have Madison Bumgarner on the mound for this one. Bumgarner is one of my favorite pitchers in the majors to back because of his consistency. This guy just goes out and gives his team a quality start nearly every time he goes to the mound. Cincinnati's offense isn't even close to the same without Joey Votto. The Reds have been terrible against lefties this year. The Reds are hitting .225 as a team against lefties, and Bumgarner is one of the top five lefties in baseball. Mike Leake isn't a bad pitcher, but he has struggled at Great American Ballpark. Leake's road ERA in his career is more than a run lower than his home ERA. San Francisco has a huge edge in the bullpen as well. Look for the Giants to win the deciding game of this series. 

The Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The Reds are 0-5 in Leake's last 5 as a home underdog of +110 to +150. A 13-0 angle. Take the Giants. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Houston Astros are playing better baseball of late, but they are still one of the worst teams in the majors. If you look at this team's lineup, it is Fowler, Altuve, Springer, and a bunch of guys who aren't good. The Angels might be without Mike Trout in this one, but even without him they have a much more powerful lineup than Houston. Josh Hamilton is back healthy now and that gives them a boost. The primary reason for this pick though is Garrett Richards. Richards has been amazing away from home this year, and he's coming off a rare ugly start. Here's a good chance for him to bounce back against a bad lineup. Cosart is currently being overrated by the oddsmakers because of an ERA that is lower than it should be based on peripheral numbers. I'll take the team with the better lineup and better pitcher. Take the Angels. 

*3 Star MLB Revenge Special* The St. Louis Cardinals lost both games at home against rival Kansas City earlier this week. Now the series shifts to Kansas City and the Cardinals have ace Adam Wainwright on the mound. Wainwright is often the stopper for this Cardinals team. Wainwright is one of the top five pitchers in baseball, and to get him at this price is very rare unless the Cardinals are playing an elite team. The price movement here has been very odd, but I have to back Wainwright and the Cardinals at this price. St. Louis isn't very good against lefties, but Jason Vargas isn't an elite pitcher. I'll take the better team with the much better pitcher at this price. Take the Cardinals. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers head back to Minnesota for this rivalry series to be continued on Wednesday. Ricky Nolasco and Marco Estrada have both struggled in a big way this year. Estrada consistently gives up 3 or 4 runs in 6 innings, which isn't good enough. Estrada also has a 6.11 ERA in his career against Minnesota. Nolasco starts for the Twins and he has a 5.70 ERA this year. In his career, Nolasco has a 7.58 ERA in 8 career starts against Milwaukee. The Brewers get back Aramis Ramirez, so their offense will be in much better shape now. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams in this one.

The over is 6-0-1 in the Brewers last 7 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The over is 3-0-2 in the Brewers last 5 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. The over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games overall. A 22-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Tom Koehler has made a habit of pitching quality games thanks to his deceptive delivery. David Price hasn't been his normal self this year, but his peripherals suggest he's been getting some bad luck. I've been saying for a while that this Miami offense wasn't as good as they showed early in the year, and that has been starting to show up on the field. Tampa Bay hasn't scored more than 2 runs in any of their last six games. With Adam Hamari behind the plate, the pitchers have an umpire who will give them the corners. Plenty of reasons to like the under. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oakland Athletics took advantage of their significant bullpen advantage in their 5-2 win over the New York Yankees last night. The Yankees bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, and Oakland ranks fifth in the majors in bullpen ERA. In Wednesday's game, Vidal Nuno will start for the Yankees. Nuno has been good on the road, but awful at home in his career. In 8 appearances at Yankee Stadium, Nuno has a 6.51 ERA. He is a fly ball pitcher (more than 60% fly balls) who is giving up a ton of homers at Yankee Stadium. Jesse Chavez has been a nice surprise for the A's, and the Yankees offense has been bad against right-handers all year long. 

Oakland is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games overall. The Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 as a home underdog of +110 to +150. They are 0-4 in Nuno's last 4 home starts. The A's are 5-0 in Chavez's last 5 after the team scored 5 runs or more. The A's are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. A 33-0 angle. Take Oakland. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers are desperate to find some starting pitching, so they have turned to Joe Saunders. Saunders made a very good start in his last outing, but I don't expect this experiment to turn out well. Saunders has an ERA of 8.58 pitching at Rangers Ballpark. His fly ball style doesn't work well in a ballpark that is great for home run hitters. The Orioles have plenty of pop in their lineup with Cruz, Jones, Machado, and company. Baltimore is coming off a day off on Monday. The Orioles are 38-15 in their last 53 following a day off. Ubaldo Jimenez is an inconsistent pitcher, but he clearly has a much higher upside than Saunders. Jimenez has an ERA of just above 4 at Texas, so he has held his own here. The Orioles actually have the deeper lineup, and at even money against Saunders I'm taking Baltimore.

The Rangers are 0-5 in their last 5 Tuesday games. Baltimore is 5-0 in their last 5 games against Texas. The Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 at Texas. A 14-0 angle. Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The St. Louis Cardinals have been shut out in back to back games. I was on the Giants on Sunday when Tim Hudson shut out the Cardinals, and then on Monday Danny Duffy and the Royals beat the Cardinals 6-0. The Cardinals offense has underperformed this year, but I'm confident they are better than they have shown. I still believe the Cardinals are the team to beat in the National League this season. Jaime Garcia has been amazing at Busch Stadium throughout his career. The Royals have been terrible against lefties all year. Kansas City is averaging just 3.08 runs per game against left-handed pitching. James Shields is a solid pitcher, but he has been in bad form of late. This is a cheap price on the much better team. 

The Cardinals are 4-0 in Garcia's last 4 Tuesday starts. They are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. They are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. Kansas City. An 18-2 angle. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been in a horrible slump of late. It doesn't help that Wil Myers is now out of the lineup as is Ryan Hanigan. Tampa Bay hasn't scored more than 2 runs in any of their last five games. They could only muster up 5 hits and one run last night despite going against Randy Wolf. This time around they'll be up against the talented Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez is coming into his own as a pitcher of late. The Rays start Chris Archer, who has an electric fastball. Miami's offense isn't as good as their numbers from this year suggest. I expect regression from their offense in the weeks ahead. Vic Carapazza is behind the plate here, and he has one of the biggest strike zones in the league. Alvarez has thrown 15 innings with him behind the dish and has given up only one run. 

The under is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall. The under is 3-0 in Alvarez's last 3 Tuesday starts. The under is 7-1-2 in the last 10 games between these two in Miami. An 18-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners are coming off a couple impressive wins at home against Detroit. The Yankees are coming off a brutal home loss against the Minnesota Twins. New York allowed 6 runs in the top of the ninth inning to lose that game. The Yankees bullpen is in disarray right now. They are missing Mariano Rivera very badly. Seattle's bullpen has been one of the biggest surprises in the league, and they have lots of solid options.

King Felix will start this one for the Mariners. To say he has been awesome on the big stage in New York is a massive understatement. In six career starts at Yankee Stadium, Hernandez has an ERA of 1.18. That is just amazing. This Yankees offense has disappointed all year against right-handed pitching and now they are up against one of the most dominant right-handers in the game. David Phelps will start for the Yankees, and he is nothing better than a mediocre starter who is here because the Yankees have had injury issues. 

The Mariners are 5-0 in Hernandez's last 5 as a road favorite. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall as a favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. Seattle is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The Yankees are 0-4 in Phelps' last 4 starts as an underdog. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Seattle is 4-0 in their last 4 games at Yankee Stadium. A 42-0 angle. Take Seattle. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* Pittsburgh is a team I look to go against this year, because the Pirates just aren't the same team they were last year. They rely too much on one hitter (McCutchen) and their pitching staff hasn't been nearly as good in 2014. Edinson Volquez is one of my favorite fades. Volquez started the year well, but has been pitching poorly of late. Zack Greinke has been amazing all year, and he has a career ERA of 2.3 at Dodger Stadium. Hanley Ramirez and the Dodgers offense got it going last night, and I see them keeping it going against Volquez. I can't lay the -170 or so here because I think laying that number is a bad game plan in baseball, but I'll gladly take some nice plus money on the run line. Take LA -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Detroit Tigers fell 3-2 last night, and I was on the losing end of that game. I'm going to back the Tigers again at what I believe is a price that is too low to pass up. I don't like laying this much on the moneyline, but I projected a line of -165 here. Max Scherzer is a Cy Young winner and he's coming off two straight poor outings. I expect much better from him in this one. Consider that he's up against a relatively weak Seattle offense that might be without Robinson Cano again. The Tigers are great against lefties, and Roenis Elias has been hitting a wall in his last few outings. Elias had never pitched above Double A until April, so it's not surprising. I don't think he'll fare well against this stacked lineup. Big mismatch here. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* The San Francisco Giants are still being underrated by the oddsmakers, and Tim Hudson is being underrated as a starting pitcher. Hudson enters this game with an ERA of less than 2. Lance Lynn is inconsistent, and he's coming off a CG shutout against the Yankees. It's important to note that Lynn threw a career high 126 pitches in that game, and I think that could have an effect on his performance in this one. The Giants offense has been a pleasant surprise this year. San Francisco has the better bullpen and better defense as well. I like the value on the underdog here. Take the Giants. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of Week* The Texas Rangers were absolutely thrashed in the first two games of this series. Texas isn't a great team, but I do believe the team has some pride. Luckily for them, they also have Yu Darvish pitching on Sunday afternoon. Darvish probably has the nastiest stuff in baseball at this point. He was scratched from his last start, but recent comments make it sound like the Rangers aren't concerned about his neck stiffness. This Washington lineup has pounded out 19 runs in the first two games of this series, but I expect that to change very quickly on Sunday against Darvish. Washington's lineup is very weak without Harper or Zimmerman. Tanner Roark is a mediocre starter, and the Rangers first five in the lineup are very strong. This is a very cheap price on a dominating pitcher against a poor lineup. Texas is also looking to avoid the sweep. 

The Rangers are 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 road starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 after Texas scores 2 runs or less last game. They are 4-0 in his last 4 after the opposing team scores 5 runs or more last game. The Nationals are 0-4 in Roark's last 4 as an underdog. The road team is 11-1 in Clint Fagan's last 12 games behind home plate. A 29-1 angle. Take the Rangers big! 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves meet in the series finale in Miami Sunday afternoon. Nate Eovaldi is a rising star for the Marlins, and he has 8 starts already in his young career against the Atlanta Braves. His ERA in those 8 starts is a sparkling 1.80. The Braves have a ton of guys who strike out often and Eovaldi is a great strikeout pitcher. Aaron Harang was torched earlier this year in Miami, but that has been his only bad start of the season. The Marlins offense is starting to come back to earth of late. Harang has a great 2.67 ERA in his career with home plate umpire Greg Gibson. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Yankees offense has been a big disappointment so far this year, especially against right-handed pitchers. They have been great against lefties, but right-handers have given them fits. Phil Hughes comes back to take on his old team at Yankee Stadium here. Hughes has really been pitching well of late, and the way the Yankees are struggling it sets up well for him. Chase Whitley was good in Triple A and he has been solid in the majors as well for the Yankees. This total is awfully high for a game with two questionable offenses.

The under is 4-0-2 in the Twins last 6 road games with a total of 9 runs or higher. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 as a road underdog. The under is 5-0-1 in Hughes' last 6 starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 as a home favorite. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. A 39-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cincinnati Reds are 14-5 in their last 19 games at Arizona. Johnny Cueto pitches for the Reds Saturday night. The defense has let him down in his last two starts, but Cueto has been amazing this year. The Reds will be against Brandon McCarthy who starts for Arizona in this one. McCarthy allows 1.5 home runs per every 9 innings pitched. Why is that important? Because Chase Field is expected to have an open roof in this one. With the roof open, the ball really flies well in this park. Johnny Cueto only allows 0.75 home runs per nine innings pitched. The gives Cueto an important advantage in this contest.

Cincinnati is 6-1 in Cueto's last 7 starts versus Arizona. Arizona is 0-5 in McCarthy's last 5 starts versus the NL Central. Arizona is 1-6 in McCarthy's last 7 home starts. A 17-2 angle, Take the Reds.  

4 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER The Detroit Tigers are the best team in the American League in my opinion. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are both on fire right now. The Tigers bullpen is their weak spot, but they have been improving of late. Drew Smyly starts for the Tigers here. He has pitched poorly of late, but I'm still convinced he is a quality pitcher. Chris Young pitches for Seattle in this one. Young is no longer the strike out pitcher he used to be, and that will hurt him in a big way against this prolific Tigers offense. Robinson Cano missed Friday's game and he may miss this one. He is a huge loss for this Mariners lineup. Take Detroit.

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* It's hard to believe, but the Houston Astros are playing very good baseball right now. George Springer is a budding star, and the Astros have been getting great starting pitching. The team's top starter is Dallas Keuchel, and he will start Saturday against the Orioles. Keuchel has thrown 2 complete games in his last three starts. On the other start he went 8 and 2/3 innings. Chris Tillman starts for the Orioles, and he has allowed 14 runs in his last 2 starts. This is a pitching mismatch. 

Houston is 4-0 in Keuchel's last 4 starts. Houston is 5-0 in their last 5 games overall.The Orioles are 0-5 in their last 5 games during game three of a series. Andy Fletcher is the home plate umpire here, and the home team is 8-0 in his last 8 games behind the dish. A 22-0 angle. Take Houston. 

*3 Star TGIF MLB Play of Day* Jason Vargas and J.A. Happ meet in this one and these are two guys I don't trust. Both of them have been fortunate so far this year. How so? Let's take a look at their ERA vs. their FIP (A sabermetrics term to indicate Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale). FIP is a good way to judge which way a pitcher's ERA will go in the future, because the lucky breaks (such as leaving runners stranded constantly) will often even out over time.

J.A. Happ has a 3.34 ERA this year, but his FIP is an ugly 5.14. Happ has left 90% of runners on base, which is just absurdly high. You have to assume that eventually teams will start to cash in on their chances against him. Jason Vargas has a 3.55 ERA but an FIP of 4.26. More than 60% of the batted balls against him are fly balls, which is dangerous against this Toronto team that has nearly 50 home runs this month.

In addition, Happ has a 5.40 ERA vs. the Royals and Vargas has a 5.90 ERA against Toronto in his career. Adrian Johnson is behind home plate here, and he has a small strike zone. The over is 15-3 in his last 18 games behind home plate. Take the over in this one.  

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Chase Field is a totally different ballpark with the roof open. The game time temperature here will be around 93 or 94 degrees and with the thin air the ball should carry extremely well. We have two pitchers here who give up a ton of home runs. Tony Cingrani gives up 1.42 home runs per nine innings of pitching. Josh Collmenter is allowing 1.53 home runs per nine innings. Cingrani has a groundball rate of just 38.5% and Collmenter has a ground ball rate of 37.3%. Lots of fly balls here should mean the weather conditions will matter quite a bit. The Diamondbacks hit lefties well, and their offense has heated up of late.

The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0-2 in Cingrani's last 6 when his opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in Collmenter's last 5 starts as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in Collmenter's last 4 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0-1 in Collmenter's last 6 following a quality start. A 21-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Underdog Special* The Detroit Tigers were heart broken last night as the Oakland Athletics walked off on a Josh Donaldson three run homer to beat the Tigers 3-1. Detroit wasted a great chance to win in that one. The fact that they lost that one makes me feel even better about this bet. Rick Porcello is underrated as a starter at this point in his career. Porcello still throws in a clunker once in a while, but he has been much better this year compared to the last couple seasons. Remember, Porcello is still just 25 years old. He pitched very poorly last time out, and I expect better from him here. Jesse Chavez has horrible numbers in limited time against Detroit. I believe the Tigers are the best team in the American League and as big underdogs here, I can't pass up the price value. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the best teams in the National League. They have Clayton Kershaw on the mound in this one, and Kershaw is the best pitcher in the majors right now. Cincinnati is short-handed without star Joey Votto, and the Reds are really slumping right now. Homer Bailey hasn't been himself so far this year, and the Dodgers have punished right-handed pitching. Kershaw has a 2.22 ERA in his career at home, and I expect him to shut down this Reds lineup. Take the Dodgers -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers and the Baltimore Orioles have played back to back 7-6 games. Baltimore won the first game and Milwaukee won the second game of the series. They may not get to 13 runs here, but I like their chances of topping 8 runs. Bud Norris and Yovani Gallardo are both guys who have been heading downhill in recent outings. Gallardo is dinged up a bit right now, and Norris is worse away from home. Both of these lineups have gotten much healthier in recent days. A close game is clearly possible here, and extra innings raises the chances of the over cashing in.

The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 games after their opponent allowed 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 as a road underdog. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games as an underdog. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The over is 5-0 in the Brewers last 5 interleague games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 4-0 in Jeff Kellogg's last 4 interleague games behind the plate. The over is 4-0 in Kellogg's last 4 behind the plate with the Orioles. A 60-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians played late into the night last night and both teams used up their bullpens in a big way. That works to our favor in this one. Hector Noesi has been terrible as a starter this year. He has a 6.82 ERA this year, and he has never pitched into the 7th inning. TJ House starts for the Indians and he was torched in his big league debut last time out. Lance Barrett is the umpire here and the over is 9-1-3 in his last 13 games behind the plate. Tired bullpens and two poor starters makes me like the value on the over. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals are a team I'm very high on. St. Louis is definitely a team that could win the world series this year. New York has a good lineup, but their rotation and bullpen is a real problem. Shelby Miller has been shaky on the road, but his career ERA at Busch Stadium is 1.72. Miller is backed by a decent bullpen which is definitely better than the Yankees pen. Hiroki Kuroda has a WHIP of 1.40 this year, so he is allowing far too many baserunners. The Cardinals offense is starting to come alive of late. 

St. Louis is 10-1 in Shelby Miller's last 11 as a favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees are 0-5 in Kuroda's last 5 after the team allowed 5 runs or more last game. The Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog. They are 1-9 in Kuroda's last 10 road starts. A 32-2 angle. Take the Cardinals. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Toronto Blue Jays offense is the hottest offense in the majors right now. Toronto has been absolutely crushing right-handed pitching of late. The Blue Jays have as good of a #1 through #6 in the lineup as anybody in baseball. Jose Reyes is doing a great job setting the table for this offense. Edwin Encarnacion is just on fire as well. Chris Archer only has two pitches and he has struggled in his career on the road. Liam Hendriks pitches for the Blue Jays and I don't think he is a big league starting pitcher. Both bullpens are bad here, which gives us a good chance for runs in the late innings. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* Jordan Zimmermann is a guy I like to back or play unders with because he is normally a consistent pitcher who gives you a solid quality start. The Miami Marlins offense is starting to slow down a bit after a red hot start. Washington also has an elite bullpen. Henderson Alvarez is a quality young starter for the Marlins. Washington's lineup is a total disaster right now. Without Harper or Ryan Zimmerman, the Nationals are having serious trouble scoring runs. I see a low scoring game in this one. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* I will fully admit that the Chicago White Sox will probably win this game, but this line is just too enticing to pass up the Cleveland Indians. I think the White Sox should be -145 or so here, and instead they are -165. Chris Sale is a tremendous pitcher, but the one team he has had trouble with his entire career has been the Cleveland Indians. Sale has a career ERA of 4.76 against the Indians. Justin Masterson has struggled so far this year, but in his career he has been amazing against Chicago. The Indians are 8-0 in Masterson's last 8 starts vs. the White Sox. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts at Chicago against the White Sox. Masterson's career ERA vs. the White Sox is just 2.35. Too high of a price to pass this one up. Take the Indians because of the tremendous value here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Mark Buehrle will be on the mound for the Blue Jays in this one. Buehrle is a guy who continues to revinvent himself and find ways to get hitters out. This Tampa Bay Rays lineup isn't great to start with, and they are now short-handed. Ben Zobrist is a major injury for this lineup. Alex Cobb pitches here for the Rays and I like him a lot. Cobb has exceptional stuff and he has been great against the Rays in his short career. Both of these guys generally do a good job working fairly deep into the game, which is definitely a plus here.

The under is 4-0 in Cobb's last 4 games when the opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The under is 3-0-1 in Cobb's last 4 starts overall. The under is 5-0-1 in Cobb's last 6 starts when the Rays score 5 runs or more last game. The under is 11-0-1 in Buehrle's last 12 starts during game two of a series. The under is 4-0 in Buehrle's last 4 starts vs. the Rays. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Dodgers were part of history yesterday when Josh Beckett threw a no-hitter in Philadelphia. The Reds lost 4-0 yesterday night in Cincinnati against their rivals from St. Louis. Cincinnati has a rough travel schedule here because of their late game and then a trip all the way to the left coast. Johnny Cueto pitches for the Reds here, and it's tough to go against him, but Cueto is due for a bit of regression. I still expect him to pitch well, but this Reds lineup without Votto will likely struggle to get runs against Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu is underrated by many, and the Reds are extremely bad against lefties so far this year. 

Cincinnati is 0-5 in Cueto's last 5 starts as an underdog. They are 0-5 in Cueto's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a lefty. They are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game one of a series. They are 6-0 in Ryu's last 6 vs. the NL Central. A 29-0 angle. Take the Dodgers. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Tyson Ross and Brandon McCarthy will be on the mound for the Padres and Diamondbacks respectively in this one. I'm fairly high on both of these guys, and their numbers against the opposing team in this situation are just out of this world good. Brandon McCarthy has a stellar 1.67 ERA against the Padres in his career (4 starts). Tyson Ross has a 1.80 ERA in 5 career appearances against the Diamondbacks. The Padres offense is woeful, and they are averaging less than 3 runs per game. Arizona has been good against lefties, but terrible against right-handed pitching. This one should be played under the Chase Field Dome which helps the pitchers. 

The under is 6-0 in Ross' last 6 starts when his opponent scores 2 runs or less in their last game. The under is 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 games with a lined total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0 in Arizona's last 4 after scoring 2 runs or fewer last game. The under is 4-0 in McCarthy's last 4 as a home favorite. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts overall. The under is 3-0-1 in Ross' last 4 starts vs. the Diamondbacks. A 34-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* I believe the Detroit Tigers are probably the best team in the majors at this point in the season. They haven't played very well in their last few games, but whenever you see this team pop up on the board as a significant underdog you have to look very hard at that game. Oakland is coming off a long road trip, and the Athletics aren't in good form of late. Oakland's offense has really been scuffling of late, and Drew Smyly is a solid young pitcher. His peripheral stats are much better than that of Tom Milone. The Tigers offense is undoubtedly much better than the A's offense also. 

The Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a lefty. They are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland is 0-4 in their last 4 games. The Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games in Oakland. A 21-1 angle. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros will do battle on Sunday afternoon at Safeco. No doubt Safeco is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors. Houston put up 9 runs on Saturday night, which is their best offensive output of the season. The Astros aren't likely to repeat that performance, especially since they'll be up against Hisashi Iwakuma, who is a very good starting pitcher. Iwakuma has been dealing of late. In his last 24 innings pitched he has allowed a grand total of 2 runs. Also, Iwakuma has an ERA of less than 2 in his career against Houston. Dallas Keuchel pitches here for the Astros, and he has been much better of late. Keuchel has a 1.93 ERA at Safeco Field in his career. Keuchel threw a CG shutout against Texas two games ago and 8 and 2/3 of 2 run baseball against the Angels last time out. Don't expect much scoring in this one. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Madison Bumgarner will be on the hill for the San Francisco Giants on Sunday afternoon. Bumgarner is a guy I like a lot, largely because he is one of the most consistent pitchers you will find in all of baseball. Bumgarner gives his team a good start almost every time out, and this Twins offense is starting to regress back toward the mean in recent weeks. Ricky Nolasco starts for the Twins, and he has a 7.41 ERA on the road this year. Nolasco has allowed at least 3 runs in all of his starts except for one so far this year. He has been lit up away from home. The Giants have the better bullpen and the better team defense. I like their chances of winning comfortably, especially at a generous price like this. Take San Francisco -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers started out red hot this year, but they have slowly cooled off. They've lost the first two games in this series. Yesterday, they lost despite getting 11 hits. They managed only one run on those 11 hits, partly due to a base running blunder that cost them at least one run. The Brewers aren't as good as they looked early in the year, but they also aren't as bad as they have been playing lately. Randy Wolf starts for the Marlins in this one, and I don't think he is a major league pitcher at this point in his career. He had a 4.50 ERA in Triple A last year. Wolf barely could make it in the majors in 2011 and 2012, and he is 37 years old now. Nelson starts here for the Brewers and he is their top pitching prospect. I'll side with the team with the better pitcher and better bullpen. They are also fighting to avoid the sweep. Take the Brewers. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* The Oakland Athletics have lost there last three games. They have lost their first two games of this series against Toronto. Some believe this means Oakland is showing how overrated they have become, but I think it's a small blip for this team. Oakland is well managed and they have no clear weakness on their roster. I like Drew Pomeranz for the A's, and I think he has the potential to be a good starter for them. On the other side, J.A. Happ has an ERA well over 4, and that is with good luck on batted balls in play. Happ isn't a very good pitcher, and Oakland is looking to avoid the sweep here. Oakland has one of the best bullpens in baseball, and Toronto's is second to last. Take Oakland here. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Atlanta Braves are very tough to beat at home. Atlanta has a solid starting rotation and an elite bullpen that helps them win a lot of close games. Colorado lost Nolan Arenado to an injury last night, and he has been a key contributor for the team. Carlos Gonzalez is listed as questionable for this game. Juan Nicasio starts for the Rockies here, and to say he has been bad against Atlanta is a major understatement. In 4 starts against Atlanta, Nicasio has a 9.82 ERA. In two starts at Turner Field, his ERA is a ridiculous 18.47. He has allowed 13 earned runs at Atlanta in just 6 and 1/3 innings pitched. Mike Minor pitches for the Braves, and he has been great against Colorado at Turner Field.

Atlanta is 6-1 in their last 7 as a home favorite. They are 4-0 in Minor's last 4 starts vs. the Rockies. Colorado is 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 0-4 in Nicasio's last 4 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. A 23-1 angle. Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Los Angeles Dodgers cashed in on the run line for me last night thanks to a great pitching performance from Clayton Kershaw. Dan Haren is no Kershaw, but he has been good this year. The Phillies offense is awful against right-handed pitching. Philadelphia bats .237 as a team against righties and they average scoring just 3.65 runs per game against right-handed pitchers. The Dodgers will be up against David Buchanan, who will be making his major league debut here. Buchanan has a 3.98 ERA in Triple A this year, and his ERA was nearly 4.5 in Double A last year. That doesn't sound like a recipe for success to me. In fact, a Phillies beat writer said in a note Friday night that the Phillies are just hoping Buchanan can "hold his own" in the majors for a short stint. That doesn't sound like confidence to me. Take the Dodgers. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Yankees lost a heartbreaker last night, and it cost me some money. I'm going to pick the Yankees again here though, as I see lots of things to like about them in this game. New York is much better against left-handed pitching, and they'll be up against lefty John Danks in this one. Danks has a 7.11 ERA in his career against the Yankees (6 starts). He has been torched by Texeira and Ellsbury in particular, and this Yankees lineup sets up very well to hit him hard. Danks has also struggled with Jeff Nelson behind the dish. With Nelson as umpire, Danks has an ERA of 7.66 in four career starts. Vidal Nuno starts here for the Yankees and he has been a road warrior. His ERA at Yankee Stadium is 6.75, but his ERA away from home is 1.54. Nuno has quality stuff and he's up against a White Sox lineup without their star (Jose Abreu). 

The Yankees are 4-0 in Nuno's last 4 road starts. The White Sox are 0-4 in Danks' last 4 Saturday starts. They are 0-7 in his last 7 starts with five days of rest. They are 0-5 in his last 5 starts with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. A 20-0 angle. Take the Yankees. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Chicago White Sox lineup isn't even close to as good without Jose Abreu in the middle of it. Even with Abreu, I've thought this team was overrated all year, and now without him I'm looking for spots to fade them even more frequently. The Yankees upside is much higher than the White Sox. Hiroki Kuroda has been a bit shaky this year, but his peripherals show that he has had some bad luck and is likely to bounce back in coming months. No doubt the Yankees lineup is much better than the White Sox lineup. Hector Noesi doesn't impress me at all, and I'll fade him here. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star TGIF MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The oddsmakers have set the price too cheap here on the Braves. This is a team that has been nearly unbeatable at home in recent years. Atlanta might not be quite as good this year as they were in some of those years, but this is still a quality team. Gavin Floyd has been very sharp since coming back from an injury, and the Braves bullpen is tremendous. The Rockies might be without Carlos Gonzalez here, and Colorado has been a bad road team for a very long time. They are 14-38 in their last 52 games at Atlanta. Jordan Lyles is starting to regress back to a mediocre pitcher. I think the Braves should be at least -130 here.

Atlanta is 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 as an underdog of +110 to +150. They are 2-10 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 road games. A 24-4 angle. Take Atlanta. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals get together for a series this weekend and these two teams really hate each other with a passion. Homer Bailey starts here for the home team. Bailey isn't a bad pitcher, but he has been awful in his career against St. Louis. Bailey has a 5.01 ERA in his career against them, and he has been bombed in the majority of his starts against them lately. Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams have owned Bailey in the past. Shelby Miller pitches here for the Cardinals, and he has been getting very lucky so far this year. His ERA is low thanks to a very high strand rate that just cannot continue in the long run. This total is awfully low for a game being played in Great American Ballpark. This would have been a top play if Joey Votto wasn't out of the lineup for the Reds. I still like the play a lot. 

The over is 3-0-1 in the Cardinals last 4 vs. the NL Central. The over is 4-0 in Miller's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Bailey's last 4 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the NL Central. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Bounce Back Special* Clayton Kershaw is baseball's best pitcher right now. He is coming off a rare horrible start. Count me as someone who doesn't believe that will happen again here. Kershaw is just too good and he'll be focused in this one. Don't be surprised if we see him have his best stuff here. Kershaw has had a lot of bad luck this year too. Opponents Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is .419 which is just ridiculous. That will come down a lot in time. Roberto Hernandez is a guy I like to fade when given the chance. The Dodgers win comfortably here. Take LA -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oakland Athletics have been road warriors this year. Oakland is 18-7 away from home in 2014. Toronto is just 10-11 on their home field. In this one, there is a significant pitching mismatch. Scott Kazmir has totally reinvented himself as a pitcher. Kazmir has good stuff and is now controlling his pitches much better than he has in the past. Liam Hendriks pitches for the Jays here. He has pitched well in Triple A this year, but he has never been able to get out major league hitters in his past runs in the majors. Oakland's offense is better than most believe. The A's are scoring 5.18 runs per game against right-handed pitchers. Oakland's bullpen is also much better than Toronto's. 

The A's are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 overall vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 in Kazmir's last 5 road starts. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 24-0 angle. Take Oakland. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Detroit Tigers are now on a four-game losing streak. Detroit may well be the best team in baseball, and I don't expect this slump to continue much longer. Anibal Sanchez is a very underrated pitcher who goes out there and delivers a quality start almost every single game. Sanchez will be up against a short-handed Texas lineup without Fielder and probably Martin as well. Scott Baker starts here for Texas, and he is a big question mark. Several Detroit hitters have great career stats against him. Too much value on the run line for me to pass up this one. Take Detroit -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* Edinson Volquez as a favorite against a quality team is almost an automatic fade for me. Volquez just isn't a reliable pitcher and he's pitching for a team that I believe is conistently being overrated by the oddsmakers. Pittsburgh isn't the same team they were last year. Volquez has put together four bad outings in a row, and he is a very streaky guy. Washington's lineup isn't great now, but I expect them to get a few. The Nationals start rookie Blake Treinen here. Treinen has pitched well in the minors. The Nationals also have the best bullpen in baseball, and that could play a major factor in this game. The Nationals are 43-19 in their last 62 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Boston Red Sox were swept by the Detroit Tigers and now they have lost the first two games of their series against Toronto. Boston may not be as good as they were last year, but they aren't as bad as they have been playing lately. They also are a team with a bunch of pride. Getting them at a reasonable price here looking to avoid the sweep is something I'll definitely take. Jon Lester has been very sharp this year. The Red Sox are 7-1 in his last 8 home starts vs. the Blue Jays. Mark Buerhle has pitched very well this year, but the Red Sox have hit him hard in the past and he's due for some regression based on how many runners he has been stranding on base so far this year. Take Boston here. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Cole Hamels and Henderson Alvarez will start in this one. Wednesday night's game between these two teams saw each team pick up 14 hits. I expect a much better showing from the pitchers in this one. Hamels has a sparkling 1.98 ERA in his career at Miami. Hamels' style of pitching fits in perfectly with this Miami ballpark. It is a pitcher's park, and Hamels has shown he knows how to use it. The Phillies offense is much weaker this year than it has been in the last few seasons. It's getaway day here too, which means both teams might sit a key player or two. The under is 8-0 in Hamels' last 8 games against Miami. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 games at Miami. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Betting unders at Coors Field isn't a lot of fun. Still, I have to bet an under whenever I see value, and I see it here. Matt Cain isn't pitching as well as he used to, but he is far from a bad pitcher. The Giants bullpen is excellent. The Giants offense is up and down. The Rockies start Chacin in this one, and he has been good at Coors Field in the past, and he has a good track record against most of the guys on this Giants roster. A total set this high is rare at night for Coors Field since day games are usually much higher scoring. Though this isn't a "fun" play to make, I'm taking the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Athletics offense has been excellent this year, and they have been crushing left-handed pitching in recent weeks. Erik Bedard is coming off some good outings, but I think he is due to regress. Bedard isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago, and I don't expect him to keep up his impressive form. Tom Milone has a 4.72 ERA on the road in his career, and his career ERA vs. the Rays is just over 7. The Rays should get to him for several runs here. This total is set awfully low for these two pitchers.

The over is 3-0-1 in Oakland's last 4 during game two of a series. The over is 7-0 in Milone's last 7 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 7-1 in the A's last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. The over is 3-0-1 in Bedard's last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 20-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox will be up against Drew Hutchison in this one and I like what I've seen out of him. Hutchison is a strikeout pitcher who the Red Sox haven't seen much at all, and I think that gives him the advantage here. Boston's offense isn't clicking right now. Clay Buchholz has struggled badly this year, but his career numbers are awesome against Toronto. He has a sparkling 2.52 ERA in 19 appearances in his career against the Jays. It will be a cool damp night in Boston which should help out as well.

The under is 5-0 in Hutchison's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 7-0 in Boston's last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall vs. a righty. The under is 3-0-1 in Buchholz's last 4 home starts with a total of 9 or higher. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of Week* The Baltimore Orioles are a slight underdog here, and that makes them a massive value in my book. I think Baltimore should be -125 to -130 here. Wandy Rodriguez isn't healthy and he hasn't been sharp in any of his starts this year. I'm looking to fade Rodriguez at every opportunity. Here is a good opportunity. Baltimore is starting to heat up offensively. Chris Davis is getting going, and with Machado and Jones also in the middle of the order this team can score runs. Chris Tillman pitches well on the road, and the Pirates offense is poor. Pittsburgh is still overrated this year because of last year's success. All signs point to this being a strong play. 

Baltimore is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the NL Central. They are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. They are 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 road starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 0-6 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in his last 4 following a game where the Pirates allowed 5 runs or more. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. A 41-0 angle. Take the Orioles big! 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Texas Rangers offense hasn't been up to par of late, but this is still a lineup that will score a lot of runs this year. Prince Fielder says he expects to be back in the lineup Wednesday and that would be a nice boost. They'll be up against Chris Young here, and Young is due for some real regression since he isn't striking out many guys and opponents have a very low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) against him this year. Seattle's offense is much better this year, and Tepesch is serviceable, but he is far from a strong pitcher. Day games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington generally see lots of fireworks. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Madison Bumgarner is a very good starting pitcher. Bumgarner is entering his prime and I expect big things from him this year and in the future. Bumgarner does a good job locating all of his pitches, and he mixes up speeds very well. The Rockies have been playing well of late, but I'm not convinced this team is quite as good as they have shown recently. Colorado has a bad bullpen and questionable starting rotation. They can definitely hit, but I see Bumgarner slowing them down here. Morales starts for the Rockies here, and I'm not convinced he can quiet this Giants lineup that has been great against lefties this year.

San Francisco is 5-0 in their last 5 following an off day. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a left-handed starter. They are 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 as an underdog of +110 to +150. A 23-0 angle. Take San Francisco. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Seattle Mariners deserve to be a much bigger favorite than they are in this game. Hisashi Iwakuma is back from injury and he is healthy and pitching with tons of confidence. Iwakuma hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts, and his stuff is truly electric. Colby Lewis isn't getting the strikeouts he used to, and he is a guy who has to get strike outs or he can't be a quality pitcher. Lewis gives up too many long balls, and he has an ERA above 5 in his career at home in Texas. 

Seattle is 8-1 in their last 9 as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are 7-1 in their last 8 following an off day. Texas is 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Texas is 1-7 in their last 8 as a home underdog. A 28-3 angle. Take Seattle. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds both have battered lineups. The top two hitters from the Reds lineup (Votto and Bruce) are both out with injuries. The top two hitters from the Nationals lineup (Harper and Zimmerman) are both out with injuries as well. Both of these offenses have really been struggling to string together hits. Johnny Cueto is pitching as well as any pitcher in baseball, and I expect a strong outing from him again here. This is a guy who has been mowing down even the best lineups. Doug Fister pitched great in his last outing, and he's backed by the best bullpen in baseball. It's a low total, but I see a strong potential for a 2-1 type of game. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Scott Carroll isn't a guy I expect to see in the big leagues for much longer. He has never had much success in Triple A, so I don't see why we should expect him to be able to get out major league hitters consistently. After a couple pretty good starts early on this year, Carroll has been bombed in his last two outings. Kansas City's Jason Vargas has struggled at home, and the White Sox have several guys who have hit the ball extremely well off him in the past. The weather will be a factor here as well. The wind is expected to be blowing 20-25 MPH out toward left center field here. That makes a big difference in this ballpark. I see plenty of runs being scored here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Wily Peralta and Mike Minor are both up and coming young pitchers. These are two guys that I expect big things from in the next few seasons. Peralta has been great away from home this year, and Minor has been very good in two of his first three starts of the season. Both of these offenses have been scuffling of late. The Braves average just 2.87 runs per game this year against right-handed starters. The Brewers are missing Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Gomez is questionable due to the stomach flu. Also important to note here that both teams have shutdown bullpens. 

The under is 4-0-1 in the Brewers last 5 games set at a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 home games after a road trip of 7 days or more. The under is 3-0-1 in Minor's last 4 starts vs. the Brewers. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. A 33-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Detroit Tigers are playing the best baseball of anyone in the majors right now. I suspect this line is set the way it is partly because Detroit just played Sunday night in Boston and will get in a little bit late to Cleveland for this series. I think this angle is overplayed, especially when the flight isn't a terribly long one as is the case here. Drew Smyly is consistently underrated, and the Indians are hitting just .208 as a team against left-handed pitching this year. The Tigers are hitting .273 against both righties and lefties. Cory Kluber is a good pitcher for the Indians, but Miguel Cabrera and this Tigers lineup have had his number. Kluber's ERA against Detroit is 5.50. The Tigers deserve to be the clear favorite here.

Detroit is 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog. They are 7-0 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed pitcher. They are 5-0 in their last 5 as a road underdog. They are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less. They are 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 5-0 in their last 5 games in Cleveland. The Indians are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. They are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. A 44-0 angle. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Los Angeles Dodgers took it on the chin in a big way last night. With Clayton Kershaw pitching, the Dodgers seemed like a sure bet against Arizona on Saturday night. Instead, the Dodgers were beaten 18-7 by the lowly Diamondbacks. Arizona pounded out 21 hits in that game. I liked the Dodgers on Sunday to begin with, but I like them a little bit more after getting crushed on Saturday night. This team has plenty of pride, and they have a good starter going Sunday in Dan Haren. Haren has put together a nice comeback season this year, and he is really commanding all of his pitches very well. Josh Collmenter pitches for Arizona, and his career ERA is above 5 against the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the much better team, and they should be highly motivated. 

The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 games at Arizona. The DBacks are 2-12 in their last 14 as a home underdog. A 25-4 angle. Take the Dodgers. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays are both without a ton of their star hitters right now. Tampa Bay is without Ben Zobrist and they'll likely be without Desmond Jennings for a second straight game. Josh Hamilton and David Freese are both out for the Angels. David Price starts in this one for the Rays, and he pitched his best game in a very long time in his last outing. Price started a little rocky this year, but he is definitely an elite pitcher. Shoemaker makes just his third career big league start for the Angels in this one. He gets a Tampa Bay team that is somewhat offensively challenged to start with, and now they are without two of their four best hitters.

The real kicker in this game that made this a play for me is the home plate umpire. Bill Miller is behind the dish here. He's my single favorite under umpire, and his strike zone is massive. It seems to get even bigger on Sunday (getaway day). The under is an amazing 31-6 in his last 37 Sunday games. Take the under.