*5 Star MLB TOP Play of Week* The Oakland Athletics are the best team in baseball and the Texas Rangers are in freefall right now. Texas took the first game of this series last night, which makes me feel even more strongly about this one. Sonny Gray has a 1.96 ERA in 3 career starts vs. Texas. He pitched a CG shutout in his only outing at Texas. This Rangers offense isn't up to its normal status right now. Oakland's offense is underrated by many. Nick Tepesch isn't a good pitcher to start with and he pitched in relief on July 22, so he is on an odd schedule here. Tepesch already has an 8.31 ERA against Oakland in his career. Oakland has the much better bullpen as well. I liked this play quite a bit to start with, but situationally it was bumped up to a 5 star play because of Tepesch's odd rest and the Rangers winning game one. 

Oakland is 6-0 in Gray's last 6 starts as a favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the AL West. They are 5-0 in his last 5 following a quality start. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts after the A's score 2 runs or less last game. Texas is 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less. They are 0-4 in their last 4 following a win. They are 0-4 in Tepesch's last 4 as an underdog. A 34-0 trend. Take Oakland -1.5 big! 

*4 Star MLB Major Mismatch* The Minnesota Twins are a real mess right now. They are getting poor starting pitching, and their lineup is far too weak without star Joe Mauer to win high scoring games. Chris Sale starts for the White Sox, and his history against the Twins is amazing. This Twins lineup is short handed and there's no reason to believe they'll be able to hit Sale this time around. Logan Darnell starts for the Twins and his minor league numbers aren't impressive at all. The White Sox do have an offense that can score runs in bunches. The Twins are headed south in a hurry, and this is a massive pitching mismatch. Take the White Sox -1.5.

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres have been an under machine all year. San Diego's offense has been on fire the last few days, but I'm not convinced they can keep it up. In fact, I think they are going to go back to being bad very soon. This is a historically bad offense, and they are short-handed now with some injured and some guys traded away. The Padres and Braves both have a good young starter going here in Despaigne vs. Teheran. These are up and comers who are capable of throwing a gem at any time. Atlanta struggles against right-handed pitching. 

The under is 11-0 in Teheran's last 11 home starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts after the Braves have scored 2 runs or less. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 games between these two. The under is 5-1 in the Padres last 6 Saturday games. A 24-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners are playing bad baseball right now. They're on a poor run almost solely because of their offense. Robinson Cano is a very good hitter, but the lineup around him isn't good enough. Chris Young is a totally different pitcher when pitching at Safeco Field. Young is a fly ball pitcher, and it is very tough to hit a home run at Safeco. With the total set at 8, the value is on the under. 

The under is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. The under is 5-0 in the Mariners last 5 as a home favorite. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 9-0-1 in Young's last 10 home starts. The under is 7-0-1 in his last 8 home starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 following a team loss. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 when his opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0 in Norris' last 5 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 Saturday starts. A 82-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* Tim Lincecum has a terrific history against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his career, he has a 2.88 ERA against the Giants hated rivals from Los Angeles. Zack Greinke started the year on fire, but he has cooled off a bit of late. The Dodgers will likely be without Hanley Ramirez and possibly Yasiel Puig as well. This is a huge series for San Francisco and they seem to be catching the Dodgers at the right time. The Giants have a massive bullpen advantage, which could certainly play a roll in a close game. Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star MLB Underdog Special* The Baltimore Orioles are in first place in the AL East, but they still aren't getting very much respect by the oddsmakers. Baltimore has one of the best lineups in the American League from top to bottom. Kevin Gausman is a solid young pitcher, and I think bettors will be able to find some value backing the Orioles with Gausman in the near future. Betting against Felix Hernandez is never fun, but the Orioles have won four straight games against Hernandez. I'll take the better team at a huge plus number. Take Baltimore.

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Josh Tomlin has had one good start in his last five outings. He allowed only one hit in Seattle in a complete game performance. In the rest of his recent outings, Tomlin has been hit hard. In his career, Tomlin has an ERA of 5.10 against Kansas City. Yordano Ventura is one of the better young pitchers in all of baseball. He has a 3.38 ERA at home this year. His ERA against the Indians is a very impressive 1.29 in his career. The Royals are an extremely streaky team and they seem to be on their way up again. The Indians 0-4 in their last 4 games at Kansas City. Take the Royals.

*4 Star MLB Total Domination* The San Diego Padres exploded for 13 runs yesterday. San Diego has one of the worst offenses in the history of Major League Baseball. It might seem obvious, but I definitely believe a good time to look for value on an under with the Padres is after a rare offensive explosion. Atlanta will start Alex Wood in this one, and the Padres have been brutal against left-handed pitching this year. Jesse Hahn is a nice young pitcher or the Padres, and the Braves have struggled all year against righties. These are two of the best bullpens in baseball. Take the under.

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds are in freefall mode right now. Cincinnati is really hurting without Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. Outside of Aroldis Chapman, the Reds can't trust anyone in the their bullpen. The Nationals have one of the best pens in baseball, and they are much healthier than Cincinnati. Tanner Roark is still underrated based on his body of work. Alfredo Simon is due for regression, and he pitched poorly in his last outing. The Nationals are on their way up, and the Reds are headed south in a hurry.

The Reds are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. a righty. They are 0-6 in their last 6 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5. They are 0-6 in their last 6 overall. They are 0-6 in their last 6 as an underdog. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Washington is 4-0 in Roark's last 4 starts following a quality start. A 35-0 angle. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Corey Kluber is quickly becoming one of the best pitchers in the American League. Danny Duffy isn't quite at that level, but he has really matured in 2014. The Indians struggle badly against left-handed pitching, and Kluber has a solid history against Kansas City. Both of these offenses run very hot and cold, and they have both been cold of late. These two teams are jockeying for position in the AL Central, and this has a feel of a low scoring close game. 

The under is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 road starts. The under is 5-0-1 in Kluber's last 6 starts after Cleveland scores 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 5-0 in the Royals last 5. The under is 7-0 in the Royals last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in the Royals last 4 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 6-0 in Duffy's last 6 starts. The under is 6-0 in Duffy's last 6 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts following a quality start. The under is 6-0 in the Royals last 6 vs. the AL Central. The under is 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 vs. the AL Central. The under is 4-0 in the Royals last 4 as an underdog. A 63-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* For those of you who have read my writeups consistently over the past few years, you know that I closely follow umpire tendencies. Paul Schreiber is the single best over umpire in all of baseball. His strike zone is extremely small, and it's very likely that both starting pitchers in this one will get frustrated at the calls sometime during the contest. Scott Feldman has an ERA of 6.75 with Schreiber behind home plate. Jeff Samardzija has an ERA of 4.70 with Schreiber. Feldman has also been terrible against Oakland. He has a 6.10 ERA against Oakland, and an 8.39 ERA at Oakland. The ball flies much better during the daytime in Oakland.

The over is 4-0 in Feldman's last 4 starts after the Astros scored 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in the Astros last 4 during game 3 of a series. The over is 6-0 in Feldman's last 6 games following a quality start. The over is 3-0-1 in Schreiber's last 4 games behind home plate. The over is 5-1 in Oakland's last 6 home games. In all a 22-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Houston Astros are slightly better than they have been the past couple seasons, but they are still a bad baseball team. Houston's offense is missing some key pieces right now. Jeff Samardzija was a quality pick up by Oakland, and he matches up well against this Houston offense. Scott Feldman is a pitcher I like to fade, and his numbers against Oakland are nothing short of awful. Oakland has a massive advantage in the bullpen as well. I think this game could get ugly. Take Oakland -1.5.

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* I realize the Tampa Bay Rays are playing terrific baseball, but this line doesn't make any sense. I actually like the Rays and appreciate the way they are playing. I like Alex Cobb as a pitcher as well. Still, this is a Cardinals team that I believe is one of the best in baseball, and Lance Lynn has historically been amazing at home. St. Louis has the edge bullpen wise. Tampa Bay is red hot right now, but they are playing against an underrated pitcher and against a team that is great at home. It makes very little sense for the Cardinals to be just barely more than even money here. Great value.

The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The Rays are 1-7 in Cobb's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest. A 16-1 angle. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have heated up once again of late. Boston has been up and down all year long. They have been playing good baseball since the break. Toronto is a team I'm low on right now. Their offense is struggling without Encarnacion in the middle of the order. The starting pitchers are letting them down and their bullpen is terrible. R.A. Dickey has a 4.55 ERA against the Red Sox, and Dickey has been worse at home in his last couple seasons. Boston's Clay Buchholz has an amazing 1.72 ERA in 11 career starts at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. 

The Red Sox are 9-0 in Buchholz's last 9 starts at Toronto. Boston is 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a righty. They are 4-0 in their last 4 following a game where their opponent scores 5 runs or more. Toronto is 0-4 in Dickey's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. They are 0-4 in his last 4 during game 3 of a series. A 27-0 angle. Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Washington Nationals have been good to me this year and fading the Colorado Rockies has been good to me as well. I cashed with the Nationals ML on Monday and the Nationals run line on Tuesday in this series. Going back to the well one more time here. Stephen Strasburg has great numbers against the Rockies. Jorge De La Rosa isn't a bad pitcher, but he doesn't go deep in games and the Rockies bullpen is awful. In addition, the Nationals are terrific against left-handed pitching. The Rockies lineup is in serious trouble with superstar Troy Tulowitzki going on the DL along with Justin Morneau. Take Washington -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Detroit Tigers are one of the best teams in baseball. Their lineup is really tough for any pitcher to get through. Chase Anderson has pitched relatively well thus far in his rookie season, but advanced metrics show he has benefited from some good luck to this point. Rick Porcello is a quality starter who I believe is underrated in most circles. Porcello pitches well on the road and faces a mediocre DBacks lineup here. Detroit has a big edge offensively and on the mound. The Tigers at this short of a price against a poor Arizona team are definitely worthy of a play.

Detroit is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a -110 to -150 favorite. They are 9-1 in Porcello's last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Arizona is 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. A 23-2 angle. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB 100% CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies have been a disaster of late. Colorado is normally good at Coors Field, but they are 8-20 in their last 28 games at Coors Field. The Rockies are 14-39 in their last 53 games overall. I've done well fading the Rockies in the past couple months and I'm not stopping now. Troy Tulowitzki has missed the last two games with a minor injury and he's questionable here. Justin Morneau just went on the DL too. Washington's Jordan Zimmermann has pitched well in the past at Coors and the Nationals have been excellent against lefties all year. Flande should struggle at Coors against this lineup.

The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. They are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series. The Nats are 5-0 in their last 5 games with a total set at 9 to 10.5. They are 6-0 in their last 6 Tuesday games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 5-0 in Zimmermann's last 5 Tuesday starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the NL West. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. They are 0-6 in their last 6 as a home underdog. The Nats are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 47-0 trend. Take Washington -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cincinnati Reds offense is a mess right now. Joey Votto is the heart and soul of the lineup and he's out and Brandon Phillips (who is a great run producer) is out as well. Zack Cozart is one of the worst hitting shortstops in baseball and he is hitting second in the Reds order right now. Jimmy Nelson is a very highly rated prospect who I expect will do very well in his career, and I like his chances of bouncing back from a poor start last time out. Homer Bailey started slowly, but he has come on nicely in the last couple months. He is a quality pitcher who is entering his prime right now. Nice number here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Washington Nationals are starting to play good baseball. Washington was one of the preseason favorites in the National League. They didn't play particularly well early in the year, but that was largely due to injuries. The Nationals are healthy now and they look like the team people expected to see. Colorado is in complete free fall mode. The Rockies are a brutal 14-38 in their last 52 games. They are 8-19 in their last 27 home games. Washington hits left-handers very well and the Rockies have Franklin Morales going here. He really shouldn't be a starter in the majors, but the Rockies rotation is a complete disaster. Doug Fister has been consistent of late. The Nationals have a massive advantage in the bullpen here too. The Rockies are 0-6 in their last 6 Monday games. They are 0-4 in Morales' last 4 as an underdog. The Nationals are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. the NL West. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants have been up and down this year, but there's no doubt they are a much better team than the Miami Marlins. Miami outperformed early in the year, but they are coming back to earth in a big way of late. Tim Lincecum has been in great form of late, and the Marlins offense is overrated in my opinion. Brad Hand is nothing but a fill-in starter who has never had any real success as a starter (not even in the minors). Lincecum gives the Giants a big SP advantage, and they have a better lineup and a much better bullpen than Miami. Expect this price to move up a bit as the market corrects a poor line from the oddsmakers.

The Giants are 4-0 in Lincecum's last 4 starts during game three of a series. The Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 games. The Marlins are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. They are 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog. The Marlins are 0-5 in Hand's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-6 in his last 6 starts overall vs. a team with a winning record. A 38-0 angle. Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins offense isn't as good as they appeared in the first half of the season. Miami doesn't have many reliable run producers, and I see them coming back down to earth offensively. The Giants offense is better than last year, but they aren't nearly as consistent as the best offenses in baseball. Tim Hudson has been great for the Giants this year. He has had some minor speed bumps of late, but I expect a solid outing here. Henderson Alvarez has been tremendous this year, and he is much better at home. A pitching duel is likely here. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics typically play a bunch of low scoring games to start with, and we're getting two underrated pitchers in this one. Chris Young really knows how to pitch at Safeco. Young is a fly ball pitcher, and Safeco is a place where fly balls go to die. Young has a 2.81 career ERA at Safeco. He also has a great 2.52 ERA against Oakland. Sonny Gray is a tremendous young pitcher who has pitched well on the road. Gray has a stellar 1.44 ERA in four career starts against Seattle. He has 0.75 ERA at Safeco. With two great bullpens behind them, there is good reason to believe this one will be low scoring.

The under is 4-0-1 in the A's last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 4-0-1 in the Mariners last 5 as a home underdog. The under is 8-0-1 in Young's last 9 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts as an underdog. The under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. The under is 5-0-1 in his last 6 starts vs. AL West. The under is 8-0-1 in his last 9 home starts. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Young's last 4 starts when Seattle's opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. A 76-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers are really playing some good baseball right now. Detroit has been a bit up and down this year, but I really believe they are one of the top three teams in baseball this season. Detroit's lineup is extremely good, even without Victor Martinez in it. Justin Verlander hasn't been himself this year, but he has a 2.8 ERA in his career at Kaufman Stadium in KC. The Royals just can't get over the hump against the Tigers, and at this point I'm guessing it is in their heads. Bruce Chen isn't the answer for KC. The Tigers hit lefties well, and the soft-tossing lefty isn't likely to have success against this very deep lineup. In his career he has an ERA well above 5 against the Tigers.

The Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the AL Central. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. They are 5-0 in their last 5 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. Detroit is 10-0 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the AL Central. They are 0-5 in their last 5 on grass. They are 0-4 in their last 4 as a home underdog. They are 0-4 in their last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 in Kansas City. A 54-0 angle. Take Detroit.  

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The St. Louis Cardinals have battled their way all the way back to even in the NL Central. Of course, it certainly helps that the Brewers have lost 11 of their last 12 games. Milwaukee is a mess right now, and they can't get into the break fast enough. The Cardinals are the best team in the division, and their offense that has been surprisingly bad all year has finally woke up in the last few days. Carlos Martinez is a quality pitcher and Wily Peralta has been struggling with his command in his last couple starts. The wrong team is favored here.

The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Martinez's last 5 starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 as a favorite. They are 0-7 in their last 7 home games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 0-7 in their last 7 home games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 1-11 in their last 12 games. A 49-1 angle. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers are the class of the AL Central. The Kansas City Royals are an extremely streaky team, but they haven't found the formula for beating the Tigers. Rick Porcello is an underrated starter, and the Tigers have given him a lot of run support all year long. James Shields has been up and down all season, and he has a 4.49 ERA in his career against Detroit. Detroit at plus money is always worth a look, and I like the value here. 

The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 versus the AL Central. They are 6-0 in their last 6 as a road underdog. The Tigers are 9-0 in their last 9 versus a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 with a total set at 7-8.5 runs.They are 5-0 in their last 5 when Porcello pitches as a road underdog. The Tigers are 5-0 in Porcello's last 5 road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 versus the AL Central. They are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 games at Kansas City. A 48-0 angle. Take Detroit.

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Atlanta Braves lost a tough one at Wrigley Field yesterday, but that actually makes me like this play even more. Atlanta is fighting hard to keep pace with Washington in the NL East. Mike Minor is on the mound for the Braves in this one, and he is undefeated in his career against the Cubs. Edwin Jackson pitches for the Cubs, and he is a guy I've had a lot of success fading in the past couple seasons. Rain is possible in this one, and if we get delays the edge moves decidedly to the Braves thanks to their big bullpen advantage. 

The Cubs are 0-11 in Jackson's last 11 when pitching on 4 days of rest. The Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games. The Braves are 5-0 in Minor's last 5 starts against the Cubs. A 21-0 angle. Take Atlanta.

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cleveland Indians offense has been significantly better at home versus on the road. Scott Carroll is coming off a masterful performance against the Red Sox, but his past tells me he's unlikely to duplicate that effort in this one. Carroll has never been very good even in the minor leagues. Zach McCallister has an ERA of almost 6 this season, and he has never pitched well at Progressive Field. The over is 20-7 in the Indians last 27 home games. With these two pitchers on the mound, there is a good chance we will see quite a few runs in this one. Take the over.

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers are scuffling of late. Milwaukee is an improved team, but they aren't as good as they played early in the year. St. Louis is better than they have played so far this season. The Cardinals are just 2 games back of the Brewers, and I expect the Cardinals to end up in the top spot in the NL Central. Yovani Gallardo is 1-11 in his career against the Cardinals with an ERA just above 6. Gallardo just can't seem to find ways to get it done against St. Louis. Joe Kelly is back from a hamstring injury here, and he has a 3.32 ERA at Miller Park in his career. The Cardinals are too good of a team to be getting this big of a price as the dog against a pitcher they have dominated.

The Cardinals are 4-0 in Kelly's last 4 starts as a dog of +110 to +150. The Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 as a favorite. They are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The Brewers are 0-7 in Gallardo's last 7 home starts vs. the Cardinals. The Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. A 30-0 angle. Take the Cardinals. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play Total* The New York Mets and Miami Marlins square off on Friday night. These teams have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. Miami's offense was decent earlier this year, but they are coming back to earth. The Mets offense has been bad all year. On the other hand, the Mets have been getting surprisingly nice bullpen work. Henderson Alvarez has a 2.21 ERA in 6 starts against the Mets in his career. He has a nice 1.38 ERA at Citi Field. Wheeler has a sparkling 0.96 ERA in four career starts against the Marlins. This game has a pitcher's duel written all over it.

The under is 3-0-1 in Wheeler's last 4 starts vs. Miami. The under is 4-0-1 in Alvarez's last 5 starts vs. the Mets. The under is 13-2-2 in the last 17 meetings between these teams. A 20-2 angle. Take the under big! 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals lost a tough one yesterday to Baltimore. The Nationals blew a lot of good scoring opportunities in that game. Jordan Zimmermann starts for Washington here, and I consider him one of the most underrated starting pitchers in all of baseball. I love his consistency. A.J. Burnett is toward the end of his career, and his style isn't suited very well by Citizens Bank Ballpark in Washington. Washington has the best bullpen in baseball and the Phillies have one of the worst. The Nationals also have a huge lineup advantage, especially now that they are healthy. I like the Nationals here. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Edinson Volquez and Shelby Miller are both on my fade list right now, and that makes this over a play for me. Volquez is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in all of Major League Baseball. Volquez has pitched great in his last three outings, but that doesn't mean much here. What means more to me is his career 6.91 ERA when pitching at St. Louis. Shelby Miller was awesome in his rookie season last year, but his mechanics appear off this year and he has been struggling no matter where he pitches of late. Miller has a 4.70 ERA against Pittsburgh. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cleveland Indians offense is much better on their home field. Cleveland lost a heartbreaker last night against the Yankees, and they need this one to win the series. Cleveland averages 4.60 runs against right-handed pitching, and David Phelps is nothing better than mediocre. The Yankees bullpen isn't very good either. Cleveland's T.J. House is a fill-in starter who allows at least 3 or 4 runs every game up to this point. The Yankees have struggled against righties, but they average 4.43 runs per game against left-handed pitching. This total should probably be 9, so we're getting solid value here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Washington Nationals have been exceptional against left-handed pitching all season. Washington hits just .230 as a team against right-handed pitching, but they hit .278 against lefties. Wei-Yin Chen has actually regressed a bit this season, and he has a very high WHIP. Look for the Nationals to take advantage of their scoring chances and put up several runs here. Gio Gonzalez has thrown a shutout in three straight contest. While expecting a shutout isn't reasonable, I do think he'll pitch well again. Matt Wieters is the only guy in the Baltimore lineup who has had success in the past against him, and he is on the DL now. Take Washington here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox offense is 27th in the league in runs scored. That's truly amazing when you consider the expectations that were there for this lineup in the preseason. Chris Sale has a career ERA of 0.71 against Boston, and he'll have some extra motivation here. For some ridiculous reason, John Farrell left Chris Sale off the All-Star roster and now he is in the final vote. Sale absolutely deserves to be on the team, and he'll get to show Farrell in person on Wednesday night. Boston's lineup has been in a massive slump of late, and it's hard to imagine them coming out of that slump against one of the best pitchers in baseball. Rubby De La Rosa has a career ERA at Fenway of 0.48 (22 innings). De La Rosa has thrown very well overall this year, and this White Sox lineup is no better than mediocre. A huge benefit here is having Doug Eddings behind the dish. Eddings is calling about 65% of pitches a strike, which is 2-3% higher than some other umpires. That 2 or 3% makes a huge difference. Eddings is probably the single best under umpire in the game today.

The under is 6-0 in Sale's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in Sales' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-1 in De La Rosa's last 4 starts as an underdog. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts overall. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins have two of the worst offenses in baseball to start with and they are both short-handed right now. The Twins are really in bad shape without Joe Mauer in the lineup. Minnesota looked hapless last night in Seattle and Chris Young is liable to make them look that bad again. Young is great at utilizing the big park in Seattle and getting long fly ball outs. The Twins have very little pop in their lineup right now. Phil Hughes loves pitching at Safeco too. He has a sparkling 0.82 ERA in his career there. Both bullpens have been throwing very well of late too.

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. The under is 7-0-1 in Young's last 8 home starts. The under is 5-0 in Young's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 following a quality start. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 during game 2 of a series. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. A 50-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB RED HOT CASH* The Oakland Athletics have the best record. While I'm not at all certain that their recent trades will mean they are a lock to be in the World Series, I do believe the A's are a very dangerous team with this strong pitching staff and a great bullpen following them up. The offense scraps and gives quality at bats as well. Madison Bumgarner is a guy I've backed many times this year, but he hasn't looked good in his last couple starts. Sonny Gray is great at home, and the A's are just playing much better baseball than the Giants right now. 

The Giants are 0-5 in Bumgarner's last 5 Tuesday starts. The Giants are 0-4 in his last 4 starts following a team loss. The A's are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The A's are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 at Oakland. A 34-1 angle. Take Oakland. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The St. Louis Cardinals have underachieved all year. I got fortunate last night to win with Cardinals -1.5, but I am going to go back to the Cardinals tonight. The Cardinals have Carlos Martinez pitching here and I like his stuff. He has good command of all of his pitches and I think he has the potential to be a high quality starter as he gets used to his new role. Vance Worley has a great ERA this year, but look at who he has faced. The Cardinals will easily be the best lineup he has faced this year. Look for Worley to come back down to earth in the coming weeks. Pittsburgh isn't likely to be able to keep pace with the Cardinals in the standings by the end of the year, and winning in St. Louis is tough. Short price here. Take the Cardinals. 

*3 Star MLB PERFECT Trend Play* The Los Angeles Angels are playing some terrific baseball right now. The Angels lineup is totally different with a healthy Josh Hamilton. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and Albert Pujols is hitting it well of late. The Angels are averaging 5.2 runs per game against left-handed pitching. J.A. Happ has a career ERA of 9.45 against the Angels. Jered Weaver has a career 2.66 ERA at home, and the Blue Jays are without Edwin Encarnacion here. Toronto is really playing poorly of late. Two teams headed in different directions right now.

The Angels are 5-0 in Weaver's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts when the Angels scored at least 5 runs last game. The Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 as an underdog. They are 0-6 in their last 6 road games. They are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 0-8 in their last 8 when their opponent scores at least 5 runs in the previous game. The Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. The Angels are 4-0 in Weaver's last 4 vs. the Jays. A 53-0 trend. Take the Angels -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value Play* The St. Louis Cardinals aren't playing well right now, but I still believe this team is better than they are showing. While the team overall isn't playing well, Adam Wainwright is certainly doing his part. He enters pitching better than anyone in baseball outside of Clayton Kershaw. Wainwright has had trouble in the past with the Pirates, but he has ironed those issues out in his first couple starts against them this year. Charlie Morton has been bombed by this Cardinals lineup. Morton has an ERA above 7 at St. Louis. The Pirates are 0-9 in his last 9 starts vs. St. Louis. Wainwright and the Cardinals have just slipped behind the Pirates in the NL Central standings, and I expect them to come ready to play here. Take the Cardinals -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies are in a horrible tailspin right now. Without Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer the offense isn't as dangerous, and the pitching staff has been horrible. Tyler Matzek has actually been their best pitcher of late, though I don't fully trust him either. The only reason I like him in this matchup is he is up against a San Diego lineup that bats less than .200 as a team against lefties. That is just amazing and pathetic really. Ian Kennedy had a career 2.88 ERA against the Colorado Rockies. He has a very nice 3.56 ERA at Coors Field. A total of 10.5 here is just too much. Kennedy is good and the Padres bullpen is great. The Padres bats are terrible. 

The under is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 during game one of a series. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 8-0 in Kennedy's last 8 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a quality start. The under is 5-0 in Kennedy's last 5 starts as a road underdog. The under is 2-0-2 in Matzek's last 5 starts. A 35-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Houston Astros are certainly better than they were last year, but this is still a bad team. Houston's lineup is really ugly outside of Altuve and Springer. There are a bunch of very low averages here. The Angels lineup is very good now with a healthy Josh Hamilton. Pujols is hitting it much better than last year. Kole Calhoun has been impressive leading off. Mike Trout is the best in the business right now. Garrett Richards is a guy I'm very high on. He started a bit rocky this year, but he is really rolling of late. He is commanded all of his pitches well and this Astros team hit him well earlier this year in Anaheim. Expect a much sharper Richards in this one. Houston's ugly bullpen makes a blowout more likely as well.

The Astros are 0-4 in McHugh's last 4 starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 as an underdog. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL West. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. They are 6-0 in Richards' last 6 starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. They are 4-0 in his last 4 as a home favorite. They are 4-0 in his last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a quality start. Houston is 0-5 in their last 5 in Los Angeles. A 52-0 trend. Take the Angels -1.5.

*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals are still a team I'm high on. This team hasn't met expectations so far this year, but I'm still expecting a hot streak at some point in this season. Gonzales starts here for the Cardinals and it's just his third big league start. He has an elite changeup and he should have a very nice career. He'll be making his first start at home, and it will be against a weak Miami lineup. Alvarez pitches for the Marlins and he has been on fire, but it has been against much weaker lineups than the Cardinals. Alvarez's home/road splits are also very different. The Cardinals at this price at home against a poor team is too much value for me to pass up. Take St. Louis. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago Cubs just traded away two very good pitchers, but let's not forget about Jake Arrieta. Arrieta is having a stellar season in 2014. He has a highly touted prospect in Baltimore, but never reached his potential. He's doing that and more in Chicago now. He is now throwing an amazing cutter that has made all the difference in the world. Arrieta has a 1.81 ERA, and it is no fluke based on advanced metrics either. Jordan Zimmmermann is a very solid starter who is consistently very good. He gives a quality start almost every time out on the mound. These are two offenses that don't hit right-handed pitchers well either. Look for both pitchers to go deep into this one and throw it well.

The under is 7-1-3 in Zimmermann's last 10 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 4-0-2 in Arrieta's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0-2 in his last 6 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-1 in Zimmermann's last 5 starts when the opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. A 19-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels offense is much better now that Josh Hamilton is healthy and back in the lineup. Mike Trout is the best all around player in the game, and he continues to shine on a nightly basis. Scott Feldman is a pitcher I like to fade when given the right opportunity. Feldman has a 7.24 ERA with HP umpire Adrian Johnson in his career. He also has a 5.44 ERA in his career when pitching in Anaheim. Hector Santiago isn't really a guy that can be trusted either though. He has a 5.19 ERA against Houston. The Astros are a much better lineup against lefties than righties. Both of these bullpens are terrible. Houston's bullpen is dead last in the majors and the Angels are 24th out of 30 teams. Nice value here. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians offense has been much better at home than on the road this year. Kansas City's offense slumbered through the first couple months, but they have been on fire of late. With Jeremy Guthrie and T.J. House toeing the rubber here, I can't understand why we see a posted total of only 8. I think this one should be at 9. Guthrie has a 6.48 ERA in his career with HP umpire Guccione in his career. He also has a 6.38 ERA pitching at Progressive Field. T.J. House has a 4.28 ERA, and he's less than dominating in his rookie year. There's no reason to expect either offense to get shut down in this one, especially with an umpire behind the plate who will make the pitchers work as he denies them the corners of the strike zone. 

The over is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 home games vs. a righty. The over is 10-1 in Cleveland's last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. An 18-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* The Cleveland Indians are a little below .500, but this is a team that finished strong last year and I expect them to improve late in the year again this year. Cleveland is very good at home, and this is a critical series for the Tribe. Jeremy Guthrie pitches for the Royals in this one and he has been downright awful in his career against Cleveland. Guthrie has 6.38 ERA in his career when pitching at Progressive Field. He also has a ridiculous 6.38 ERA with home plate umpire Chris Guccione behind the dish. T.J. House is a mediocre lefty, but the Kansas City Royals have struggled against lefties all year. The Royals may be without Omar Infante here, and he is a key piece in their lineup. Cleveland gets back on track here. Take the Indians. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Dodgers weren't playing well early in the season, but they have turned it on of late. They aren't going to go on a 42-8 run in the span of 50 games like they did last year, but this team is better than they showed early this season. The bullpen was their weakness last year, but they are pitching better in the past month. This Dodgers offense is solid from top to bottom, and Hanley Ramirez is slowing getting a little healthier. Colorado is in a nasty funk. I don't like what's going on with this organization, and it makes it much easier for me to go against them here since Troy Tulowitzki is listed as questionable here. Walt Weiss said on Friday "It's possible he'll sit on Saturday" due to how badly his groin injury was bothering him. Colorado is already without Gonzalez and Cuddyer, and they can't afford to be without Tulowitzki. Jorge De La Rosa has been good at Coors Field in his career overall, but his numbers against the Dodgers are ugly. De La Rosa has a 6.26 ERA in his career against Los Angeles, and the Rockies are just 3-12 in his last 15 starts vs. the Dodgers. Dan Haren isn't great, but he's a slightly better option than De La Rosa here.

The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. They are 5-0 in their last 5 games against Colorado. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 as a home underdog. They are 0-7 in their last 7 games with the total set at 11 or higher. They are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of 60% or higher. They are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. They are 0-4 in their last 4 after losing the first two games of a series. A 41-0 angle backs the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles here. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Felix Hernandez is throwing the ball better this year than he has at any other time during his career, and that is definitely saying something considering the type of career he has had. Hernandez has struggled when pitching at US Cellular in the past, but that was against better White Sox lineups. In recent weeks, the White Sox lineup has started to show their true colors, and I don't like their chances against King Felix. Jose Quintana went through a bad stretch a few weeks ago, but his last two outings have been great. The Mariners have been having trouble hitting lefties in the past month. Cool weather in Chicago will allow the park to hold more fly balls than normal.

The under is 6-0 in Seattle's last 6 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0-2 in Quintana's last 7 Saturday starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a dog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home underdog. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins offense isn't even close to the same without Joe Mauer in the lineup. This is a lineup that has been struggling even with him in the middle of the order, and I expect for things to get even worse without him. Chase Whitley has struggled in his last couple outings, but advanced statistics suggest he has gotten some bad luck of late. Whitley is a solid young pitcher, and I like this matchup for him. Kyle Gibson starts for the Twins. Gibson has a tremendous 1.5 ERA at home this year. The Yankees have had trouble against right-handed pitching all season long. Relatively cool weather and a nice breeze blowing in towards home plate will help here as well. The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 Friday games. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 games following a win. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 runs.The under is 5-0 in Gibson's last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago Cubs pounded out 16 runs in their series finale in Boston Wednesday night. That isn't the norm for the Cubs' offense though, and I see no reason to expect their offensive explosion to continue. Tanner Roark starts here for the Nationals, and he has been lights out at home. In his career, he has a 1.28 ERA when pitching in Washington. Jason Hammel pitches for the Cubs. Hammel is having the best season of his career, and he is likely to be traded before the deadline. This is a big ballpark to start with, and the wind is expected to be blowing in at about 10-15 mph throughout this game. Both offenses struggle against right-handed pitchers. The under is 7-1-1 in Roark's last 9 home starts. The under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs last 5 games as a road underdog. The under is 3-0-1 in the Nationals last 4 games when their opponent has allowed 5 runs or more in the previous game. A 14-0 angle. Take the under.

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants are really struggling to put up runs of late. The Giants were shut out last night by Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals, and San Francisco has been shut out in 2 of their last 3 games and 3 of their last 9. The Cardinals offense hasn't been any better. St. Louis has been shut out three times in their last six contests, and they have only scored more than two runs one time in their last six games. St. Louis struggles badly against lefties on the year, and they'll face a very good lefty here in Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is one of the top five lefties in the majors in my book. Carlos Martinez is a solid young pitcher who shows a lot of promise. Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and he has a huge strike zone. Bumgarner has a sparkling 0.32 ERA in his career with Kulpa behind the dish. That means he has allowed only one run in 28 and 1/3 innings. Expect a low scoring affair.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Cardinals last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 2-0-2 in Martinez's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 when their opponent scores two runs or less. The under is 11-1 in the Cardinals last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 23-1 angle. Take the under.  

*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Miami Marlins may have started the season on fire, but they are definitely falling back to earth quickly. They have had key injuries slow them down, but this team just isn't as good as they looked early on either. Tom Koehler relies on deception to get opposing hitters out, and since the Phillies just saw him they should have a nice edge here. Cole Hamels pitches much better away from home, and Hamels has an ERA under at Miami in his career. Hamels generally has a home run problem at home, but in a place like Miami those are long outs more often than not. Hamels hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a single road game this year. I trust Hamels much more than Koehler, and the Marlins are a sinking ship right now.

The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. They are 0-4 in Koehler's last 4 home starts. Miami is 0-4 in their last 4 as an underdog. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 4-1 in Hamels' last 5 starts. A 22-1 angle. Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* I've bet the Washington Nationals run line in the first two games of this series, and I'm not stopping yet. The Nationals dominated the first two games of the series, and I like their chances of making it a clean sweep. One more time I'll go back to the well here. Colorado is a team that is just a total mess right now. The starting rotation is made up of guys who are in over their heads. The bullpen is just as bad if not even worse. They are missing Gonzalez, Arenado, and Cuddyer in the lineup. Washington crushes left-handed pitching, and Tyler Matzek hasn't been terribly impressive in his young career. Doug Fister is great at home. Fister has a stellar 1.44 ERA with Rob Drake behind the dish as he will be in this one. Take Washington -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Yankees have lost four straight and they now sit at just 41-41 on the year. Tampa Bay was playing horrible baseball up until about a week ago, but they are slowly getting healthy and playing more like they were expected to this season. Joe Maddon won't let his team quit, and that has been proven in recent days. Jake Odorizzi is a good young pitcher who has done a good job keeping the ball in the yard. Odorizzi is throwing the ball right now better than he has at any point in his young career. Vidal Nuno has a career ERA well above 5 at Yankee Stadium and this year his ERA at home is 6.20. He allows nearly 2 homers per every nine innings. That's important here because the weather will be hot with wind blowing out for this one. It could be a launching pad on Wednesday. 

Tampa Bay is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The Yankees are 0-4 in Nuno's last 4 home starts as an underdog. They are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. A 24-0 angle. Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Cincinnati Reds lost a tough one last night in San Diego. The Reds allowed one hit all game long (a single) and still lost 1-0. That should leave a bad taste in their mouths. Remember, the Reds have been playing great baseball. They are 13-4 in their last 17 road games overall. San Diego still has a terrible offense and Mike Leake is pitching the best baseball of his young career. Leake is very capable of shutting down this Padres offense. Ian Kennedy has only been mediocre this year, and the Reds have solid numbers against him.

Cincinnati is 4-0 in Leake's last 4 Tuesday starts. The Padres are 1-11 in Kennedy's last 12 starts when the opposing team scores 2 runs or less last game. The Padres are 0-4 in Kennedy's last 4 starts on 5 days of rest. A 19-1 angle. Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Washington Nationals run line was my play of the day on Monday and I'm going back to the well again on Tuesday. Washington took care of business 7-3 on Monday night behind their much improved offense. Bryce Harper is back in the lineup, and he changes things in a big way. He is the catalyst for this team. Stephen Strasburg is on the mound here, and he has amazing career stats against all the Rockies players. Colorado is really slumping badly right now. Colorado starts Christian Friedrich again here. I've faded him in his first two starts and won both times. I'll fade him again here. Friedrich has never been successful in the minors, and now he has come up to the majors and been hit around hard. The Nats have the best pen in the majors and the Rockies pen is one of the worst. Total mismatch here.

Washington is 5-0 in their last 5 Tuesday games. They are 5-0 in Strasburg's last 5 as a favorite of -200 or greater. Colorado is 0-5 in Friedrich's last 5 road starts. They are 0-7 in his last 7 following a team loss. They are 0-7 in his last 7 during game 2 of a series. They are 0-8 in his last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog.  A 41-0 trend. The moneyline is too pricey here, so we'll take the run line. Take Washington -1.5.

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Hiroki Kuroda has a ridiculous 6.94 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay. No other team has blasted him the way the Rays have. Tampa Bay's offense is slowly showing signs of coming back to life. David Price isn't having a dominating season, and he is only mediocre in his career at Yankee Stadium. The weather is a factor here. A temperature in the mid 80's and wind blowing out 15 mph at gametime is a recipe for a lot of long fly balls that turn into home runs. Both bullpens are subpar as well. With the total set this low, I'm taking the over. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Washington Nationals have been playing better baseball of late, and they'll get a big boost on Monday night when Bryce Harper returns to the lineup. Harper is the guy that can really ignite this lineup, and they should immediately be much better offensively. Washington is hitting only .228 against right-handed pitchers, but they are crushing lefties at a .277 clip. Yohan Flande starts here for the Rockies and he has just been thrown into the rotation because this team is so thin when it comes to pitching depth right now. Flande had a 4.18 ERA last year and a 4.42 ERA this year in Triple A. Those kinds of numbers in Triple A don't usually translate into wins at the big league level. Jordan Zimmermann is a starter I'm very high on. Zimmermann has been the most consistent Nationals starting pitcher. In his career, Zimmermann has made six starts against Colorado and he has a sparkling 1.42 ERA in those starts. The Rockies are in a serious tailspin and the Nationals are starting to play the way everyone expected. With Harper coming back that's an extra positive. Keep in mind also that the Nationals have the best bullpen in baseball and the Rockies bullpen is terrible. Looks like a mismatch all the way around. Take Washington -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value Play* I always love finding a chance to fade Joe Saunders. Saunders has an ERA above 5 and I don't think he belongs in the big leagues at this point in his career. The Orioles lineup won't have Manny Machado here, but this is still a solid offense. The line move here is strange, but I'm fading the move toward Texas and backing the Orioles. While Ubaldo Jimenez isn't exactly trustworthy either, he does have a 2.83 ERA in 7 career starts against Texas. Baltimore is the better team overall, and this is a short price to lay at home against Saunders. Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jorge De La Rosa and Yovani Gallardo will start here for the Rockies and Brewers respectfully. Both of these guys have struggled badly against the lineup they must face on Sunday afternoon. The Colorado Rockies are playing some horrible baseball of late, but it really hasn't been because of a lack of offense. Colorado should be able to put up a few runs against Gallardo. De La Rosa has struggled all season, and the Brewers offense is locked in of late. The Rockies bullpen is horrible so there shouldn't be any relief there.

The over is 3-0-2 in De La Rosa's last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 runs. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 road starts. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts against the NL Central. The over is 5-0-2 in his last 7 road starts versus a team with a winning record. A 15-0 record here. Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Kansas City Royals are the streakiest team in baseball this year. About the time you think the Royals are ready to contend with the Tigers in the AL Central, the Royals start playing ugly baseball again. The Los Angeles Angels have been playing well away from home of late. C.J. Wilson is a quality starter who has pitched extremely well against Kansas City over the course of his career. Jeremy Guthrie isn't particularly trustworthy, and he'll be up against a red hot Angels lineup. The price here is too enticing for me to pass up. Take the Angels.

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Detroit Tigers have been a bit streaky this year, but this is definitely a very good team that everyone in the American League (and the National League for that matter) should be very wary of. Detroit has the look of a team that will be tough to beat in the postseason. With Kinsler, Hunter, Cabrera, and Martinez in the first four spots in the lineup, opposing pitchers never get a break here. Scott Feldman is a guy I like to fade in general, and his numbers are brutal against Detroit. In 32 career innings against the Tigers, Feldman has an 8.16 ERA. Victor Martinez is 3 for 3 against Feldman and Miguel Cabrera is a smoking hot 9 for 13 in his career against Feldman. Drew Smyly is a guy that I consider underrated, and this Houston lineup isn't very good. Both bullpens are equally bad, so that's a wash. The Tigers have a small starting pitching advantage and a massive offensive advantage. I expected a line of -140 or higher here. Great value on the road team.

Detroit is 8-1 in their last 9 road games. They are 6-1 in their last 7 games at Houston. The Astros are 0-4 in Feldman's last 4 starts following a team loss. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 22-2 angle. Take Detroit big! 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds have won the first two games in this series. These are two teams headed in different directions right now. Cincinnati had a multitude of injuries earlier this year, but now that they are healthy this team is playing solid baseball. San Francisco had the best record in baseball, but now they are losing their grip on the NL West. Matt Cain pitches here for the Giants, and I'm very concerned about him. It seems Cain has lost his confidence and his command. He was lit up by the hapless Padres offense last game. Alfredo Simon is due for some regression, but he is better than the books have him pegged for this contest. 

The Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 as an underdog. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. They are 4-0 in their last 4 as a road dog. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 7-0 in Simon's last 7 starts when the opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. They are 7-0 in Simon's last 7 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. They are 6-0 in Simon's last 6 road starts after allowing 2 runs or less. They are 4-0 in Simon's last 4 starts as an underdog. Cincinnati is 6-0 in his last 6 starts on 4 days of rest. They are 4-0 in Simon's last 4 following a quality start. They are 5-0 in Simon's last 5 starts overall. The Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The Reds are 7-0 in their last 7 games at San Francisco. A 68-0 angle. Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays have been a real mess this year. They are still getting too much respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion. Erik Bedard has pitched decent for the season overall, but he is an aging starter who can't get deep into the game. Tampa Bay's bullpen is subpar. Bedard is streaky pitcher, and he hasn't pitched well at all of late. Bedard has been downright awful in his career against the Orioles. He has a 6.30 ERA against Baltimore. Chen is solid pitcher at home, and this Tampa Bay lineup is short-handed. Surprisingly short price on the home team here.

The Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a lefty. The Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 games during game 3 of a series. They are 4-0 in Chen's last 4 starts after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The Rays are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-1 angle. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers are struggling offensively of late. Luckily for them they do have Yu Darvish on the hill in this one. That means they should have a fighting chance to win even if their bats struggle. Phil Hughes has been amazing this year, and I was very surprised to see how well he has pitched against Texas in the past. Hughes has a sparkling 2.09 ERA against Texas in his career. Even more impressive is his 1.52 ERA at Texas. Yu Darvish has a 2.92 ERA against Minnesota, and Darvish has been at his best this year. Both these starters have shut down type of stuff.

The under is 6-0 in the Twins last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-1 in Hughes' last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts during game 2 of the series. The under is 3-0-1 in Texas' last 4 as a favorite. The under is 6-1 in Darvish's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 9-1-1 in the Twins last 11 games following a loss. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams in Texas. A 40-2 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals have struggled badly against left-handed pitching all season long. Ryu is one of the top left-handed pitchers in the league. This is a guy who is dominating even more this year than he did last season. Ryu is particularly special when pitching at Dodger Stadium. Remember, at night this a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. Carlos Martinez will start for the Cardinals and I'm pretty high on his potential. The Dodgers will likely be without Hanley Ramirez again, and he is a vital part of this offense. Last night these teams played to a 1-0 final. I expect another low scoring game here.

The under is 7-0 in the Cardinals last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Cards last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. The under is 3-0-1 in the Cardinals last when their opponent scored 2 or less last game. The under is 3-0-1 in Ryu's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 vs. the NL Central. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value* The Milwaukee Brewers have done a great job taking advantage of teams they are better than so far this year. Colorado started the season hot, but they are short-handed and in a massive slump right now. Without Arenado, Cuddyer, and Carlos Gonzalez this Rockies team has been terrible of late. The Rockies bullpen is awful and the starters aren't much better. Metzak starts here and he's a rookie that has never been particularly good in the minors and I'm not high on his long-term chances. Kyle Lohse pitches for the Brewers. Lohse is a solid pitcher who hits his spots and makes hitters swing at his type of pitches. Two teams headed in different directions. The Brewers have the edge offensively, starting pitching wise, and in the bullpen. Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Red Sox/Yankees CASH* The Boston Red Sox haven't been playing well at all of late, but they should be ready for a series against their rivals from New York. This is always a heated series no matter the records of the teams. Vidal Nuno has been downright awful at home in his career. Nuno has a 6.14 ERA in his career when pitching at Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox offense has underachieved, but this is a good matchup for them. Boston is better against lefties and Nuno will likely struggle again on his home field. Brandon Workman has quality stuff and can punch out a bunch of guys. The Yankees haven't been good against right-handed pitching this year.

New York is 0-6 in Nuno's last 6 home starts. They are 0-4 in his last 4 as a home underdog. They are 0-5 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. They are 0-5 in his last 5 starts overall vs. a team with a losing record. The Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. A 24-1 angle. Take Boston. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Rockies have decided to give Christian Friedrich a second shot in the majors. As I said in my writeup last week when he pitched at home against the Brewers, I'm not sure why. Freidrich allowed 9 runs in that last outing against Milwaukee and we cashed in comfortably with the Brewers ML. This time around, Freidrich is at Milwaukee and the price is far too high on the moneyline, but I still like the run line. Freidrich hasn't been successful in the minors, so it's hard to see why the team expects him to be successful in the majors. Friedrich had a 7.89 ERA in Triple A before being called up. In 2010 and 2011, Freidrich had a 5.03 ERA in two seasons in Double A. In his two stints in the majors, his ERA is hovering right around 6. Wily Peralta is a quality young starter with good stuff, and he gives Milwaukee a huge pitching advantage. Also, the Brewers have a top ten bullpen, while the Rockies are one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

The Rockies are 1-10 in Freidrich's last 11 starts. They are 0-7 in his last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Milwaukee -1.5. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians lost a heartbreaker on Tuesday night in Arizona. The game lasted 5 hours and 32 minutes, and the Indians fell 9-8 in 14 innings. Both bullpens are exhausted, and I think that gives the Indians even more of an advantage on Wednesday. Corey Kluber is becoming an elite starter, and he is very capable of giving the team 7 innings and saving the bullpen. Chase Anderson isn't as likely to work deep into the game, and he has been rather fortunate so far in his young career. He is due for some regression. Cleveland is the much more balanced team.

The Indians are 6-0 in Kluber's last 6 following a quality start. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a loss by Cleveland. They are 5-0 in his last 5 interleague starts. The DBacks are 1-8 in their last 9 as a home underdog of +110 to +150. A 23-1 angle. Take Cleveland. 

*4 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Atlanta Braves have a nice young starter here in Alex Wood. I'm probably higher on his ability than some others, and I think I must be higher on him than the Braves are themselves. I was surprised when they took him out of the rotation earlier this year. The injury to Gavin Floyd puts him back in the rotation though. Wood has great quality stuff and good command with all of them. The Astros are better, but they still have a poor lineup and the worst bullpen in baseball. Atlanta's bullpen is very good, and the lineup has underperformed so far this season. Look for an Atlanta win here. Take the Braves. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have been a streaky team all year, and we've been able to ride some streaks with them and make some money with this team. Detroit is playing great baseball again now, and I see another good opportunity for them. I love fading Joe Saunders, and Saunders is up against one of the best lineups in baseball right here. Expect Detroit to get to him early. Anibal Sanchez's numbers are bad in Texas or this would have been an even bigger play. Keep in mind though, this Rangers lineup is very short-handed right now and Sanchez is throwing the ball extremely well this year. 

Detroit is 5-0 in their last 5 games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 road games. Texas is 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a right-handed starter. They are 0-6 in their last 6 games overall. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. They are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 32-0 angle. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star MLB Road Warrior* The Cincinnati Reds let me down last night with a poor hitting performance. Still, this is a Reds lineup that has been much better overall of late now that they are healthy. In addition, the Reds are going for a series win in Chicago, and their track record at Wrigley Field is very impressive. The Reds are 21-6 in their last 27 games at Wrigley. Mat Latos is coming off a horrible start, and I like his chances of bouncing back against a weak Cubs lineup. I've never been a big fan of Edwin Jackson either. I think the Reds win this one and win another series in Chicago. Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Hiroki Kuroda has been the Yankees most consistent pitcher the last couple years, but he is showing signs of breaking down. Kuroda is 39 years old, so it shouldn't come as a big surprise. Kuroda is having his worst season as Yankee this year. He has struggled in the past in Toronto too. He has a career 5.65 ERA at the Rogers Centre. Drew Hutchison has an ERA of slightly higher than 8 at home this year. He also has an ERA above 7 in his career against the Yankees. This Yankees offense is showing signs of coming together of late. This is a low total for two solid offenses.

The over is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 during game 3 of a series. The over is 3-0-1 in Kuroda's last 4 starts on astroturf. The over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 6-1 in the Jays last 7 overall. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 21-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cincinnati Reds have totally dominated the Chicago Cubs over the past few years. Cincinnati is 51-20 in their last 71 games against the Cubs. Cincinnati is 22-6 in their last 28 games at Wrigley Field, so they feel right at home here. The Reds just went over .500 with yesterday's win. Cincinnati isn't a great team, but they are better than they played early this year. With a healthy lineup, this offense is looking much better of late. Homer Bailey is improving as the season moves along, and he has a 2.56 ERA at Wrigley Field. Jake Arrieta's number are terrific, but he hasn't been facing good lineups. He has been feasting on poor offenses. At this price, I'll back the much better team.

Cincinnati is 6-0 in Bailey's last 6 starts at Wrigley Field. The Reds are 4-0 in Bailey's last 4 starts with 4 days of rest. The Reds are 11-1 in Bailey's last 12 starts vs. the Cubs overall. Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Milwaukee Brewers have been very good this season, and I have backed the Brewers successfully a bunch of times this year. Still, I think there will be some times to fade this team against other elite teams. Washington is starting to get healthy, and Jordan Zimmermann is a guy I like very much. Zimmermann has an ERA of under 1 in his two career starts at Miller Park. Yovani Gallardo has struggled against the Nationals in his career. Washington has the better starting pitcher, and they definitely have a huge advantage in the bullpen. At plus money, I like the Nationals.

Washington is 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games. Milwaukee is 0-4 in Gallardo's last 4 Tuesday starts. The Nats are 4-0 in Zimmermann's last 4 Tuesday starts. Washington is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the Brewers. A 16-0 angle. Take Washington. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have been up and down this year, but I expect big things from them overall. Detroit fell just short of a World Series title last year, and they are a contender again this season. With Cabrera and Martinez hitting back to back, any opposing pitcher would have a difficult time. Colby Lewis has been awful at home in his career. He has a 5.17 ERA in Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Drew Smyly has sorted out some mechanics issues and pitched much better in recent starts. The Rangers lineup is very short-handed right now.

Detroit is 4-0 in their last 4 games. Texas is 0-8 in their last 8 Tuesday games. The Rangers are 0-5 in their last 5 games overall. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 with a total set at 9 to 10.5. A 26-0 angle. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers hit .275 against left-handed pitchers. Texas scores almost 6 runs per game against lefties on the year. They'll also have plenty of chances to score on a bad Detroit bullpen. On the other side, I see tons of chances for Detroit's very good lineup to score on Colby Lewis and a bad Rangers bullpen as well. Lewis has a 6.02 ERA in his career against Detroit, and he is on the downswing in his career as well. Detroit is very capable of putting up a big number on their own here.

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 following a win. The over is 10-1 in the Tigers last 11 road games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0 in Smyly's last 4 road starts with a total at 9 or higher. The over is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 games vs. a lefty. The over is 5-0 in Lewis' last 5 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in Lewis' last 4 home starts with a total of 9 or higher. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 34-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Dog of Day* Mark Buehrle has a 1-11 career record and a 5.84 ERA in 17 starts against the New York Yankees. Buehrle is a guy I have pegged for regression anyways based on his past history and his amazing numbers so far this year. Against the Yankees, this is a good time to find some value going against Buehrle. Keep in mind, as I have mentioned many times before this season, this is a Yankees lineup that is much better against left-handers than righties. David Phelps has a decent 3.86 ERA, and he has a 3.96 ERA in his career against Toronto. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in Buehrle's last 5 starts vs. New York. They shouldn't be favored by this much. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The St. Louis Cardinals head to Coors Field to play a slumping Colorado Rockies team. Colorado badly misses Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer. With a healthy lineup, the Rockies had been able to cover up their glaring weakness in the starting rotation and the bullpen, but of late they haven't been able to do it. St. Louis' offense has been a big disappointment all year, but they should hit it well at Coors Field. Several Cardinals players have good numbers against Chacin. Chacin's career ERA against the Cardinals is 6.43. Lance Lynn has a nice 1.96 ERA in three career starts vs. the Rockies. That includes two solid starts at Colorado. The Cardinals are a better team than they have shown to this point in the season, and the Rockies are in freefall. I think this is a great price on the Cardinals.

The Rockies are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. A 15-0 angle. Take the Cardinals. 

*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Brewers have dominated this series, and I don't see anything changing on Sunday. Colorado's lineup isn't the same without Carlos Gonzalez or Michael Cuddyer. The Brewers have put together a very nice lineup. Ryan Braun is obviously the star, but guys like Ramirez, Lucroy, Davis, and Gomez fill out a very strong lineup from top to bottom. It's also important to note that the Brewers have a massive advantage in the bullpen versus the Rockies. Rookie Tyler Matzek starts for Colorado against veteran Kyle Lohse. Lohse is having his best season in several years, and he gives the Brewers the edge on the mound. In my book, the Brewers have the edge all around here. 

Milwaukee is 4-0 in their last 4 games a road favorite of -110 to -150. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 7-1 in their last 8 road games. They are 6-0 in Lohse's last 6 starts during game 3 of the series. They are 4-0 in his last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. Colorado is 0-4 in their last 4 as an underdog. A 33-1 angle. Take Milwaukee. 

*3 Star MLB Runline Value Play* Johnny Cueto take the mound here for the Reds. Cueto has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season. He pitches even better at home especially in day games. In the past three seasons, Cueto has an ERA just under 2 in his day starts. Toronto's lineup has been up and down of late, and I expect them to struggle against Cueto. R.A. Dickey hasn't been very good this season, and he has been battling some minor injuries of late. I would prefer getting the ML here, but paying -150 isn't a good idea in the long run. Will take the run line. Take the Reds -1.5.

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Max Scherzer won the Sy Young award last season, but this season has been a struggle. Scherzer has been way off his game in the past month. For his career, Scherzer has a 4.99 ERA when pitching in Cleveland. This Indians lineup has done well against him in the past, and I expect several runs from them here. Josh Tomlin pitches for the Indians in this contest, and he has a 5.40 ERA in his career against Detroit. This Tigers lineup is one of the best in baseball.  A total set at 8 is just too low. 

The over is 4-0 in Detroit's last 4 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 6-0 in Cleveland's last 6 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 4-0 in Tomlin's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Tomlin's last 5 after the Indians allowed at least 5 runs last game. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 games between these two in Cleveland. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 meetings overall. A 32-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* Nick Martinez never pitched in AAA. He made the jump from AA and looked solid in the early going this season, but Martinez has really hit the skids of late. This Angels lineup is packed full of power, and I expect them to get lots of base runners against Martinez. Jered Weaver isn't the pitcher he used to be, and the Rangers are certainly capable of putting several runs on the board. Both of these bullpins are subpar, and that helps our cause. Warm weather and wind blowing out to center field is another big factor here. Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* To say Justin Verlander has slipped is a massive understatement. Verlander has totally fallen off a cliff this year and he's been particularly bad in recent weeks. He isn't as bad as he has pitched of late, but he certainly isn't the pitcher he used to be. Verlander has actually struggled quite a bit with the Indians in the past, even when he has been excellent. Trevor Baeur is nothing better than an average pitcher and I don't see him quieting this strong Tigers lineup. The Tigers pen is the worst in the majors, and that could play a role here too.

The over is 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 on 4 days of rest. The over is 7-0 in his last 7 starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 7-0 in the Indians last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 games at Cleveland between these teams. A 39-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers continue to surprise, and the oddsmakers continue to be wrong about them. It seems like every day the oddsmakers are daring bettors to back the Brewers with short lines, and they are getting burned constantly by that stance. Milwaukee's lineup is great with Braun, Lucroy, and Gomez all hitting it extremely well of late. Colorado isn't quite as equipped as normal to win a shootout with Cuddyer and Gonzalez out of the lineup. The Brewers have a huge bullpen advantage. Christian Friedrich was a disaster in his first stint in the majors and he has a 7.89 ERA in Triple A this year. Why is he getting called up anyways? 

Milwaukee is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series. They are 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 games with a total set at 11 or higher. They are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. The Rockies are 0-4 in Friedrich's last 4 Saturday starts. They are 0-6 in his last 6 during game 2 of a series. They are 0-6 in his last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-5 in his last 5 after the team scored 5 runs or more last game.  A 41-0 angle. Take the Brewers. 

*4 Star MLB Totals Take Down* Mike Leake has always struggled at Great American Ballpark. Leake has pitched well on the road, but he seems to consistently get into trouble when pitching at home. Toronto's offense was slumping until last night, but they broke out with 14 runs in last night's comeback victory. The Blue Jays have tons of guys who can take advantage of this small ballpark especially on a warm summer day. J.A. Happ has bad career numbers against the Reds, and the Reds lineup has gotten healthy. Expect both teams to put up quite a few runs here. Take the over.

*3 Star MLB UNBEATEN Total* The Miami Marlins and New York Mets have a long track record of playing low scoring games against each other. There will be two quality youngsters on the mound in Koehler and DeGrom in this one. Koehler pitches much better on his home field, and his track record against the Mets is amazing. In 9 games against the Mets in his young career, he has a 2.47 ERA. DeGrom has very good stuff and is coming off his worst start of the year. I expect a bounceback. Ron Kulpa is behind the dish here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. 

The under is 6-0-1 in the Mets last 7. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 2-0-2 in DeGrom's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Koehler's last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 7-0-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams in Miami. The under is 4-0 in Koehler's last 4 starts vs. the Mets. A 45-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Chris Young has pitched great in Seattle, but on the road he struggles. He'll be up against a Kansas City lineup that is as hot as anyone in baseball. The Royals have excelled all year against right-handed pitchers. Jason Vargas pitches for the Royals here, and he is also due for some regression.  Robinson Cano has torched Vargas in the past, and he should help the Mariners take advantage of scoring chances in this one. Scott Barry is the home plate umpire for this one, and he has a small strike zone. The weather should help too with the temperature in the low 90's and win blowing out. Expect plenty of runs. Take the over.

*3 Star AL East Value Play* The New York Yankees have been playing well of late, but they were very fortunate to win last night over these Orioles. Baltimore was in control all game long before Zach Britton blew the save and the win for the Orioles. Vival Nuno pitches for the Yankees here, and he has an ERA above 6 in his career at Yankee Stadium. The Orioles hit left-handers well. The Yankees offense has struggled against right-handers all season. I like the value on Orioles as the underdog here. Take Baltimore.

*5 Star TGIF TOP Play CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres lineup was the worst in baseball at the start of the year. It's even worse now. San Diego is without Yonder Alonso and Jedd Gyorko. Those are two middle of the lineup bats that this team counts on. Ian Kennedy has been decent this year, but his numbers at Petco Park (the ultimate pitcher's park), aren't terrific. Kennedy has a mediocre 3.88 at home this season. The Dodgers are finally hitting their stride. The Dodgers are 17-5 in their last 22 following an off day, and they were off Thursday.There's no doubt the Dodgers are one of the best teams in the National League, and they are finally starting to play with confidence. Dan Haren has been shaky of late, but this Padres lineup has made a lot of pitchers look great lately. The Dodgers have a massive edge offensively, and the starting pitching matchup is a wash in my book. 

San Diego is 2-10 in their last 12 following a win. They are 0-5 in their last 5 during game one of a series. The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. the NL West. Take the Dodgers big! 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION Play* The Miami Marlins offense started out on fire this year, but they have been slowly regressing back toward where they should be of late. This Miami offense is certainly better than they have been, but they also aren't as good as they looked earlier this year. Dice K has pitched pretty well this year, and the Mets bullpen is the most improved in baseball from last year. Miami's Henderson Alvarez has an ERA well below 2 at home this year. The Mets offense is terrible, and the Marlins and Mets have a nice history of low scoring games.

The under is 7-0-1 in the Mets last 8 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0-1 in the Mets last 6 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 as an underdog. The under is 3-0-1 in Alvarez's last 4 home starts. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts with a total of 8 or lower.The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 between these teams in Miami. The under is 3-0-1 in Alvarez's last 4 starts vs. the Mets. A 42-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The St. Louis Cardinals have been playing better baseball of late. They were beaten in the series finale yesterday afternoon at home against the Mets. Bartolo Colon has been pitching very well, and he quieted this Cardinals lineup. David Buchanan starts in this one for the Phillies, who swept the Atlanta Braves in Atlanta earlier this week. Buchanan is a poor starter who really has no business being in the majors, and the Phillies are one of the worst teams in the NL East. It's a good spot to fade the Phillies here too. They come into this series feeling fat and happy about sweeping the Braves. Shelby Miller has been up and down, but he pitched 6 innings of shutout baseball against the Phillies last year. He has been great in his last two starts, and he has a 2.25 ERA at home in his career. This Cardinals team is better than they have shown this year, and they will pile up the wins between now and the end of the year. Good spot to back the Cardinals at plus money on the run line. The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 games in St. Louis. Take St. Louis -1.5. 

*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The New York Yankees are 39-13 in their last 52 home games against Toronto. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Toronto starter Mark Buehrle. Buehrle is definitely due for some regression based on his numbers so far this year. He isn't getting better at this point in his career, and I expect his numbers to finish close to what they have in the last couple seasons. The Yankees have struggled against right-handers, but they hit lefties very well. Chase Whitley has quietly been excellent in his first few starts in the majors. The Blue Jays offense has cooled off dramatically in the last couple weeks. I like this matchup for New York. Take the Yankees. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Alfredo Simon has certainly pitched his best baseball of his career so far this year, but there's no doubt he is due for some serious regression. Simon's ERA is just 2.95 for the year, but his FIP is 4.48. Simon has benefited from a ridiculously low batting average on balls in play against him (.242). The league average is near .300. The Pirates offense has heated up in a big way of late. Cincinnati's offense is much much better with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce healthy. Todd Frazier is swinging it really well too. Edinson Volquez's control problems hurt him a lot against deep lineups like the Reds. A total set at just 7.5 with two pitchers I'm low on equals a strong over play for me. Take the over here. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago White Sox start Chris Sale in this one. Sale has essentially had one hiccup all year and that was the bad inning in LA when Mike Trout hit a grand slam off him. Sale has totally dominated the majority of the time this year. Sale is looking like a top five pitcher in the majors. What about Tim Hudson? Hudson is having a fantastic season in 2014. Hudson has a 1.81 ERA, and he has been remarkably consistent. The White Sox lineup has cooled off in a big way over the past few games, and between Hudson and this Giants bullpen I expect another poor game from the Sox offense. 

The under is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 home starts with the total at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in the White Sox last 5 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 home starts overall. The under is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 as a favorite. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open. The roof is scheduled to be open in this one despite the temperature being about 100 degrees at gametime. The dry heat really helps the ball fly well. Kyle Lohse is a solid pitcher, but he has struggled with homers here at Chase Field in the past. Last year he allowed three home runs in one outing at Chase Field. Wade Miley is allowing 1.5 HR's per 9 innings, and Miley has been much worse when the roof is open over the course of his career. Milwaukee's offense is very good this year with Braun, Ramirez, Gomez, and solid production from guys like Segura and Davis. The DBacks have been able to score at home. This total is set awfully low for a game with the roof open at Chase Field.

The over is 4-0-1 in Lohse's last 5 starts following a quality start. The over is 5-0 in Arizona's last 5. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right-handed starter. A 26-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Cincinnati Reds are 10-4 in Johnny Cueto's last 14 starts at PNC Park. Cueto has an ERA of just 1.81 in 14 career starts at PNC Park. That ERA is just remarkable given the large sample size. Cueto is throwing the ball better than ever so far this year. The Reds are finally healthy. This lineup is pretty good with a healthy Joey Votto and Jay Bruce in the middle of it. Billy Hamilton is swinging it well at the front of the lineup too. Pittsburgh's offense is too reliant on McCutchen, and Cumpton puts too many on base. The Reds have a huge pitching edge here. Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Washington Nationals were swept out of St. Louis, but before that series they were playing some very good baseball. St. Louis is a very good team, and I think Washington is starting to find their groove overall. Look for Washington to get back on track in this series against Houston. I've backed Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros before this season, but this price is just too skewed toward the Astros. Houston's bullpen is just atrocious, while the Nationals have the best bullpen in baseball. Tanner Roark has been very good this year, and the Nationals offense has hit left-handed pitching amazingly this year. The Nationals have an OBP of .338 against lefties this season. Washington is 5-0 in their last 5 as a home favorite. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games against the Astros. A 15-1 angle here. Take Washington. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers may not be a great team, but they are better than the oddsmakers believe. Milwaukee is leading the NL Central division for a reason. This team has no clear weakness. They have a solid starting rotation, a good bullpen, and a strong lineup from top to bottom. With a healthy Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez in the middle of the lineup, this lineup is much better than it was last season. Arizona has been awful at home all year, and they have been burning money when Brandon McCarthy pitches. The DBacks are 5-21 in McCarthy's last 26 starts. McCarthy isn't a bad pitcher, but he is prone to the big inning, and he struggles pitching at Chase Field. Wily Peralta has all the tools necessary to be a good starter in the bigs for a long time. All things considered, I see no reason for Arizona to be the favorite in this contest.

The Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing five runs or more last game. The DBacks are 0-6 in McCarthy's last 6 vs. the NL Central. They are 0-5 in his last 5 after the team scores 5 runs or more last game. They are 0-4 in McCarthy's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. A 27-0 angle. Take the Brewers.