|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-01-16||Red Sox v. Mariners UNDER 9||2-1||Win||100||21 h 31 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Boston Red Sox start lefty Eduardo Rodriguez in this game. Rodriguez was highly touted prospect who struggled early this year, but he recently went down to Triple A and changed up some flaws in his mechanics. Rodriguez has pitched better in his last three outings.
Seattle played the late game at Wrigley Field and lost a heartbreaker in extra innings on Sunday night. They might be a little sluggish in this game, and if anything I think that leads to a lower scoring game. The Mariners rank 20th in wOBA vs. lefties.
James Paxton has had a bunch of bad luck this year. Paxton has a 4.76 ERA thanks to a very unlucky .376 batting average on balls in play. This is a guy who has a great swinging strike rate of 11.9%. Boston unquestionably has a very good offense, but I think Paxton can at least slow them down.
There has only been one game all year in Seattle with a total this high. Safeco is a great pitchers park and I think this number is just too high to pass up.
The under is 8-0 in the Red Sox last 8 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 overall. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. The under is 6-0 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts vs a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Seattle. A 31-0 angle. Take the under.
|08-01-16||Nationals -1.5 v. Diamondbacks||14-1||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Washington Nationals have gotten a great season out of Stephen Strasburg so far this year. Strasburg has taken the next step that everyone was waiting on him to take. He has turned into a true ace. Strasburg has induced much more weak contact this year. He is still striking out about 11 guys per nine innings pitched as well.
Strasburg goes up against an Arizona team that is absolutely flailing right now. The Diamondbacks have nothing much to play for between now and season's end. Arizona is very good against left handed pitching, but they are poor against right handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are 17-35 at home this year. They are 7-22 in their last 29 games overall.
Archie Bradley is a subpar starter at this stage in his career and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen is currently the worst bullpen in the majors. Washington is a top 5 bullpen.
Washington is 10-1 in Strasburg's last 11 road starts. They are 38-14 in his last 52 starts overall.
Take Washington -1.5.
|07-31-16||Red Sox v. Angels +105||5-3||Loss||-100||14 h 24 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie BLASTER* The Boston Red Sox have scored 3 runs or less in 3 of their last 4 games. They'll face very talented youngster Tyler Skaggs in this one. Skaggs is a lefty who shutout the Royals in his first start back from an injury last outing.
Skaggs was a highly touted guy, and he appears to be realizing his promise now. Skaggs had 1.67 ERA in 7 starts in Triple A before shutting out Kansas City.
Steven Wright has had a nice season, but he has been very fortunate with batted balls and runners left on base. He is due for some regression, and he faces an Angels team that has hit him well in the past. In 3 career starts vs. the Angels, Wright has a 6.61 ERA.
The Red Sox are 15-36 in their last 51 road games vs. a left handed starter. The Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 home games. They are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. Boston. Take Los Angeles here.
|07-31-16||Royals v. Rangers OVER 10||3-5||Loss||-110||11 h 45 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers have badly needed a starting pitcher. They traded for Lucas Harrell. Harrell isn't necessarily a bad starter, but he also isn't a fix to their problem. Harrell has been pitching in Atlanta and pitching better than expected, but things get much tougher pitching in Texas in the scorching heat and against better lineups. I don't expect Harrell to pitch as well moving forward.
Dillon Gee hasn't gone more than 5 and 1/3 innings in any of his starts this year. Gee 4.54 ERA and a 4.98 FIP. Gee has always been a guy who struggles with the long ball, and that's dangerous in this park.
The weather forecast is ridiculous here. The game time temperature is expected to be 98 degrees. Home plate umpire Pat Hoberg is in my database as a small over umpire, and that helps also.
Both bullpens struggle in the middle relief, and I think both starters will be out early. Take the over.
|07-31-16||A's v. Indians UNDER 8||0-8||Push||0||9 h 11 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber here. He has five very good starts in his last six outings. Kluber was hit hard by the Toronto Blue Jays in his one bad start, but the Oakland Athletics offense will never be confused with the Blue Jays offense.
Sonny Gray has been struggling a lot more this year, but his career numbers against the Indians are tremendous. Gray has pitched 28 innings against Cleveland and allowed only 2 runs. That's a 0.64 ERA. Gray also has a career 2.82 ERA in day games (3.60 at night), so this is a good spot for him.
Helping both pitchers is home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt. He has become a good under umpire in the last few years. His strikeout/walk ratio is near the top, and the under is 9-1-2 in his last 12 games behind the plate.
A relatively mild temperature and wind blowing in should benefit this play also. Take the under.
|07-30-16||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5||4-2||Loss||-100||20 h 36 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a tremendous comeback win over the Arizona Diamondbacks last night. The Dodgers were down 7-2 in the 7th and came back to win 9-7. Manager Dave Roberts said after the game he believed that was probably the best win of the season for his team.
The Dodgers offense underachieved badly for the first few months of the season. Finally, the Dodgers offense has been very good in the past month. Los Angeles ranks fifth in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days.
Braden Shipley starts this one for Arizona. Scouting reports on him are mixed. The thing that makes me think he has limited upside, at least for the time being, is his strikeout rate in the minors. Shipley only struck out 5.81 batters per nine innings in Triple A.
Scott Kazmir is 11th in the majors in most run support this year at 5.55 runs per game. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 games and they have covered the run line in all four games. Take Los Angeles -1.5.
|07-30-16||Reds -124 v. Padres||1-2||Loss||-124||18 h 1 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB RED HOT Cash* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony DeSclafani in this one. DeSclafani is a good young pitcher who has really put it together in the last couple months. He had a poor outing last time out against San Francisco, but before that game he had allowed 3 runs or less in six straight games. He'll be up against a Padres lineup that is an absolute mess right now. Melvin Upton Jr. was traded away. Solarte has been the most consistent hitter on the team, but he is away from the team right now. The Padres offense has been awful against righties all year (.226 batting average and .287 OBP), and here they are facing a good righty.
Christian Friedrich has some ugly minor league numbers in the last couple years, so it was a surprise when he started this year off nicely in the majors. He has come back down to earth quickly though. Friedrich has serious control problems. He has an ERA above 5 in each of his last 7 starts. It hasn't been just bad luck either. His FIP is above 4 in every single one of those starts.
The Reds offense has been hot of late, and their bullpen is improved with Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, and Tony Cingrani stepping up of late.
The Reds are 4-0 in DeSclafani's last 4 starts. The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. the NL Central. Take Cincinnati.
|07-30-16||Phillies v. Braves UNDER 7.5||9-5||Loss||-115||18 h 60 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have the two worst offenses in the National League. They played to a 2-1 game on Friday night, and I'm looking for a second straight low scoring game in this one.
Jeremy Hellickson isn't a great pitcher, but he does have a history of quieting weak offenses. Hellickson gives up a lot of fly balls, which isn't a terrible thing when you are pitching in Atlanta against an offense that doesn't have very much power.
Julio Teheran has been really good for the Braves this year. Teheran has a 2.84 ERA at home in his career, and a nice 3.13 ERA in the 2nd half of the season in his career. In 78 and 2/3 innings, Teheran has a 2.29 ERA against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Teheran has received the lowest amount of run support of any pitcher in the big leagues this year at a miserable 2.50 runs per game. Hellickson has received a paltry 3.24 runs per game, which is the 8th lowest of any pitcher in the majors.
The under is 7-0 in Hellickson's last 7 starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 after a quality start. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 when pitching on 4 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 7-0 in Teheran's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 36-0 angle. Take the under.
|07-29-16||Orioles v. Blue Jays -127||5-6||Win||100||16 h 30 m||Show|
*3 Star Friday MLB MONEYMAKER* The Toronto Blue Jays offense got a big boost when Jose Bautista came back into the fold recently. Toronto now has what is probably the deepest lineup in the majors.
Baltimore's offense has been good this year, but they are slumping in a big way of late. The Orioles have scored 3 runs or less in 10 of their last 16 games. They haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 17 games. That's a pretty crazy statistic considering this is a team that is averaging 4.75 runs per game for the entire season (even after this recent slump).
Marco Estrada has a good 3.38 ERA against Baltimore in 37 and 1/3 innings. Estrada is a second half pitcher, as he has a very nice 3.12 ERA in 2nd half of the season in his career.
This is also a good situational spot. Baltimore had to fly to Minnesota for a game on Thursday for a makeup game. Toronto had the day off. Baltimore had a virus go through their dugout a week or so ago, and I think this Orioles team is a little worn out right now.
Kevin Gausman is actually a pitcher I'm high on, so this isn't a fade of him. Still, Gausman has a 5.11 road ERA in his career. The Orioles are also 5-17 in his last 22 road starts.
Toronto is 43-18 in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Toronto here.
|07-28-16||Nationals v. Giants UNDER 7||4-2||Win||100||18 h 14 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants have gotten a lot of good starts out of Johnny Cueto this year. Cueto has been lights out at home. In his career, Cueto has a 2.26 ERA when pitching at AT&T Park. Washington's offense is very good against lefties, but only mediocre against right handed pitching. The Nationals hit .239 against righties vs. .261 against lefties.
The San Francisco Giants have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 8 games. The Giants offense hasn't been stringing together hits. Tanner Roark is an underrated starter for the Nationals. Roark has had a FIP below 3 in 5 of his last 6 starts. Roark has been good in his career at suppressing home runs.
Cueto generally pitches deep into the game which gives the Giants bullpen a break. The Nationals have one of the best bullpens in baseball.
The under is 5-1 in Roark's last 6 starts. The under is 5-2 in Cueto's last 7 home starts. Take the under.
|07-27-16||Angels v. Royals UNDER 8.5||5-7||Loss||-115||29 h 21 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Danny Duffy takes on Matt Shoemaker on Wednesday night in KC. Phil Cuzzi is the umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. Duffy has been the Royals best starter so far this year. He has been consistent and his walks are way down from last year.
Matt Shoemaker started the season out slowly, but he has been awesome of late. Shoemaker has a 3.99 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, so he is still due some positive regression. The Royals offense has been struggling of late.
Kansas City's bullpen is healthy again, and Shoemaker has been pitching deep into games for the Angels. I see a close low scoring game in this one. Take the under here.
|07-27-16||Braves v. Twins UNDER 9||9-7||Loss||-100||19 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Doug Eddings is the umpire in this one, and that is great news for under bettors. In the past five years, no one has called a higher percentage of pitches a strike than Eddings. He has a very high strikeout to walk ratio. He'll do everything he can to help these two pitchers.
The weather conditions favor the under. The wind will be blowing in from center field at about 10 mph and the temperature will only be in the low 70's for this one.
Both Foltynewicz and Duffey are inconsistent, but they are both young starters with some potential. The Braves have a miserable OBP of .299 against righties and the Twins are a weak .310 in the same category.
Take the under here.
|07-27-16||Rockies v. Orioles UNDER 9||3-1||Win||100||16 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dylan Bundy was the number one rated prospect in the Baltimore organization coming into this year. Bundy has an extremely high upside. He flashed that potential last outing against Cleveland. He faces a free swinging Rockies team that isn't very good offensively on the road in this contest.
Jon Gray is a good pitcher who has a bunch of potential for the Rockies moving forward as well. Gray has allowed 3 runs or less in his last four games. Baltimore's offense is absolutely capable of scoring a bunch, but they have been in a funk of late. The Orioles haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 15 games.
D.J. Reyburn is the umpire here, and he is a very solid under guy. He'll give both pitchers the corners throughout in this one.
The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring five runs or more last game. The under is 14-0 in the Orioles last 14 games overall. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 home games. The under is 11-0 in their last 11 vs. a right handed pitcher. The under is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 following a loss. A 55-0 angle. Take the under.
|07-26-16||Mariners v. Pirates -110||7-4||Loss||-110||16 h 0 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates still have a chance to make the playoffs, but they have do some great work in this portion of their schedule.
Francisco Liriano goes to the mound for the Pirates, and he has been showing signs of turning it around of late. Liriano struck out 13 and walked no one in his last outing. For someone who has walked over 5 batters per nine innings this year, that was huge. Liriano has allowed 3 runs or less in each of his last four starts. Liriano has a 3.56 ERA at home this compared to a 6.52 ERA on the road.
Felix Hernandez hasn't been himself this year. Hernandez has actually had a lot of batted ball luck this year, or his numbers would be even worse. His ERA is 3.23, but he has a 4.25 FIP and a 4.28 XFIP.
The Pirates have the better lineup here. Pittsburgh is healthy and they have a very deep lineup. Seattle misses Ketel Marte (mono). The Mariners have been bad against lefties all year as well. Seattle is hitting .266 against right handed pitching and only .240 against left handed pitching.
Pittsburgh is 20-8 in their last 28 following a day off. The Mariners are 4-12 in their last 16 road games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a lefty. The Pirates are 16-5 in Liriano's last 21 home starts.
|07-25-16||Reds v. Giants UNDER 8||7-5||Loss||-115||21 h 45 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony Desclafani in this one. Desclafani has very good stuff, and he's in great form coming into this one. Desclafani has been the picture of consistency this year as well. He has gone at least 6 innings in all of his starts except for one. He has also allowed 3 runs or less in all but one of his starts. Desclafani hasn't walked a single batter in his last three outings.
The San Francisco Giants offense is ice cold right now. The Giants miss Hunter Pence and Joe Panik. How bad has this offense been of late? They have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their 8 games after the All Star break.
Cincinnati's offense has been inconsistent this year. Jake Peavy starts for the Giants, and he has a solid 3.98 ERA at home this year. This is a great pitchers park and the temperature here is supposed to be only 57 degrees for this game.
The under is 6-0-3 in Desclafani's last 9 starts during game 1 of a series. The under is 3-0-3 in his last 6 starts. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 following 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the under.
|07-25-16||Tigers +146 v. Red Sox||4-2||Win||146||17 h 33 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Boston Red Sox are getting too much love from the oddsmakers here. Drew Pomeranz is a guy I've backed several times this year, but I see some issues coming for him. Pomeranz is a fly ball pitcher, and that was a good thing at Petco Park, but Fenway is a much different story. Also, he is now playing in the American League where the DH will hurt him. It could be a difficult adjustment.
Justin Verlander has been throwing the ball really well of late. Verlander has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last four starts. His strikeouts and swinging strikes are way up in recent games as well, which is a great sign.
Mookie Betts is questionable for the Red Sox, and the Red Sox bullpen is hurting without Kimbrel and Uehara.
Detroit has plenty of right handed sluggers to put up against Pomeranz, and this number is certainly inflated. Take Detroit.
|07-24-16||Dodgers -115 v. Cardinals||9-6||Win||100||22 h 15 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball MONEY* The St. Louis Cardinals hit .240 against left handed pitching (they are .261 against right handed pitching). The Cardinals are without Matt Carpenter and he's probably their most consistent hitter.
Scott Kazmir is a very streaky pitcher, and he's been dealing of late. Kazmir has only 3 walks and 23 strikeouts in his last three starts.
The Cardinals have called up Mike Mayers to make his big league debut in this one. He isn't a highly rated prospect, and this is definitely a tough game for him to make his debut in. While the Dodgers offense was bad early in the year, they have been red hot of late. The Dodgers have scored 44 runs in their last 8 games. Mayers has poor advanced metrics in the minors, and I don't think he is a long-term answer for the Cardinals.
The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a lefty. Take Los Angeles here.
|07-24-16||Rangers v. Royals -113||2-1||Loss||-113||13 h 18 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB RED Hot CASH* The Texas Rangers aren't nearly as good as their record would indicate. This is a team that is going to continue to lose ground. Don't be surprised if the Astros win the AL West over the Rangers. Texas has no starting pitching depth now, and their bullpen is terrible.
To make matters even worse, the starting pitchers they are running out there now don't pitch deep enough into the game, and the bullpen is overworked in a big way. The Rangers were able to win with Cole Hamels on the mound yesterday, but there's a big difference between Cole Hamels and A.J. Griffin. Griffin has a FIP of higher than 7 in his last three starts. He has had major control problems of late.
Edinson Volquez is a decent pitcher, and this Texas Rangers lineup is badly beaten up right now. Volquez has better day game numbers in his career, while Griffin has been better at night. This is a day game in KC, and the Royals are great at home. In fact, they are 38-16 in their last 54 home games.
Kansas City is getting healthy in the bullpen, and they have a huge advantage over Texas in that area.
This line is too short to pass up. Take Kansas City.
|07-24-16||Diamondbacks v. Reds OVER 9.5||9-8||Win||105||13 h 16 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The weather in Cincinnati is perfect for the over. The heat index is expected to be 102 degrees during the middle of this game. Great American Ballpark is a good hitters park all the time, but it is a great hitters park when the weather is like this.
Sam Holbrook is the umpire for this game. He ranks 84th out of 88 umpires in called strikes in the past five years according to my umpire database. Holbrook is a very good over umpire. The over is 34-16-3 in his last 53 Sunday games behind the dish.
Zack Godley starts here for Arizona, and I don't think he has the stuff to be a starter. Godley doesn't have enough plus pitches. He doesn't pitch deep into games, and that's a problem for Arizona too. The Diamondbacks bullpen has the single worst ERA in baseball since the All Star break.
Brandon Finnegan is a lefty with some potential for the Reds, but he has been a mess of late. Finnegan is walking 4.57 batters per 9 innings, so Holbrook is a bad umpire for him to draw. Finnegan doesn't have a FIP below 4 in any of his last five starts. The Diamondbacks rate fourth in the majors in offensive production against lefties.
Take the over.
|07-23-16||Angels v. Astros -1.5||2-7||Win||112||16 h 7 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Houston Astros start Collin McHugh in this one. McHugh has pitched very well of late. In fact, he has allowed 2 runs or less in five of his last six games. McHugh will be backed by what is arguably the best bullpen in baseball as far as depth. The Astros bullpen doesn't get nearly enough credit.
Jered Weaver starts for the Angels, and Weaver is a long ways from the pitcher he used to be. Weaver had a 5.02 ERA and a 5.44 FIP on the year. He has been much worse on the road than at home the last couple years.
Twice so far this year Weaver has faced the Astros, and the Astros won by 2 and 6 runs in thisoe games. There's no reason to expect him to fare any better in this one.
Houston is 6-0 in McHugh's last 6 starts vs. the Angels. The Astros are 9-0 in their last 9 games overall vs. the Angels.
Take Houston -1.5.
|07-23-16||Diamondbacks -125 v. Reds||1-6||Loss||-125||16 h 60 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Arizona Diamondbacks start Robbie Ray in this one. The Cincinnati Reds start Keyvius Sampson. The starting pitcher matchup is the primary reason I'm taking the road team in this one. Robbie Ray has a 4.49 ERA, but he has a 3.81 FIP and a 3.67 XFIP. He has had a FIP of 2.87 or lower in 3 of his last 4 starts, so he has been getting stronger of late.
Sampson hasn't started a game yet this year. Dating back to last year, the Reds are 0-6 in his last 6 starts. Sampson had a 6.54 ERA as a starter last year, and he just doesn't seem to be able to get guys out when they multiple looks at him. Sampson's single biggest problem is the home run ball. That isn't a good combination for the conditions at Great American Ballpark on Saturday. The hot temperatures should mean the ball will fly very well.
Arizona has been cold of late, but they have been a moneymaker on the road this year. The Reds are a poor team and they have a significant pitching disadvantage. Take Arizona.
|07-23-16||Padres v. Nationals -1.5||2-3||Loss||-129||16 h 24 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* The Washington Nationals are in a bit of a slump right now, but I think Max Scherzer is the right guy to help them snap out of it on Saturday night. Scherzer has been getting much better as the year has gone on. He has a FIP of 2.01 or lower in 6 of his last 8 starts, and he has started keeping the ball in the park much better in recent outings. Scherzer is starting to look like his dominant self again.
Edwin Jackson isn't any good. He has a 4.76 ERA this year and a 6.09 FIP. That's extremely bad when you consider that he has only started one game. Even more evidence of how bad he is: Jackson had a 7.11 ERA in three starts at Triple A this year. The Nationals lineup has a great chance to wake up on Saturday.
Washington has a big edge in the bullpen as well. The Padres rank in the bottom ten in most bullpen categories this year, and Washington has one of the top five bullpens in baseball.
I don't like to lay money on the -1.5 runline very often, but in this case there are plenty of reasons to do it. Take Washington -1.5.
|07-22-16||Braves v. Rockies UNDER 11||3-4||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* I had the under on Sunday when these two teams met with this same pitching matchup. The final score was 1-0 as Atlanta scored in the bottom of the 9th to win. I certainly don't expect anything like that at Coors Field, but I do think 11 is too high for these pitchers.
Julio Teheran has been the picture of consistency this year. He has very good numbers against this Rockies lineup as well. Teheran generally pitches pretty deep into the game.
Jon Gray has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 14 starts. He has been great on the road all year, and of late he has pitched very well at home. Gray has the stuff to be the number one starter for Colorado for a long time.
The weather isn't as hot here as it was a week ago, and that helps as well.
The under is 8-0 in the Braves last 8 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more. The under is 7-0-1 in the Braves last 8 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 6-0 in Teheran's last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in Gray's last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 Friday starts. A 36-0 angle. Take the under.
|07-22-16||Angels v. Astros UNDER 8||1-2||Win||101||20 h 35 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Astros start Lance McCullers here. McCullers has been great at home throughout his career. He has a career 2.16 ERA at home. In 104 and 1/3 innings pitched at home in his career, he has 119 strikeouts. McCullers has dominating stuff, and I expect him to perform well here. McCullers has held Angels batters to a .200 average in 60 career plate appearances.
Matt Shoemaker started the year miserably and yet his season long numbers are looking pretty good right now. Shoemaker has a 4.08 ERA and a 3.35 FIP. His control has been amazing in the last couple months, and he's been using his splitter far more often.
The Astros bullpen doesn't get enough credit. From top to bottom, this is probably the deepest bullpen in baseball. Houston has been a good under team this year in big part because their bullpen is great at shutting down opponents late in the game.
Both of these two teams rank in the top ten in the majors in defensive runs saved also.
The under is 4-0 in McCullers last 4 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 overall. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 vs. the AL West. A 33-0 angle. Take the under.
|07-22-16||Mariners +1.5 v. Blue Jays||2-1||Win||100||5 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Toronto Blue Jays start Marco Estrada here. Estrada is definitely due for regression. The average pitcher has a batting average on batted balls in play of about .300. Estrada's opponents have hit .193 on balls in play. That can't continue forever.
Seattle is 21-7 so far this year on the +1.5 runline on the road. Seattle plays a lot of close games, and when I am given a standard -110 on the +1.5 here, I have to take it.
James Paxton has had a FIP below 3.50 in 7 of his last 8 starts. Paxton is a good pitcher who has had some rotten luck. I think the market is undervaluing him and overvaluing Estrada right now.
This is one where we are getting too good of a price based on the public betting the home team heavily. Toronto is getting about 87% of the public bets here. Take Seattle +1.5.
|07-21-16||Orioles v. Yankees -103||4-1||Loss||-103||12 h 26 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The New York Yankees beat the Baltimore Orioles 5-0 last night. Clients of mine cashed on that one with the Yankees -1.5. I'm taking the Yankees again here.
Baltimore has real problems right now. There is a bad illness going through the dugout right now. Manager Buck Showalter missed the game yesterday, and the lineup the Orioles put out against Michael Pineda looked very rough. Baltimore was without Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Matt Wieters on Tuesday night. Machado came down with the virus on Tuesday, and there's a good chance he'll miss this early game on Wednesday. There's no doubt Machado is the Orioles best hitter, so that is significant.
Chris Tillman is due for regression. He has a 3.29 ERA and a 4.20 FIP and a 4.52 XFIP. Tillman has been very fortunate this year, and that luck can't continue through the whole season. Tillman has a horrible 7.30 ERA in eight career starts at Yankee Stadium, so this is a bad matchup for him.
C.C. Sabathia isn't great, but he has shut out the Orioles twice this year. Sabathia pitches much better in day games in his career, while Tillman is much worse in day games.
The Yankees have the much better bullpen as well, and their bullpen is well rested. This is a good price on the home team.
The Yankees are 7-2 in Sabathia's last 9 home starts vs. Baltimore.
Take New York here.
|07-20-16||Orioles v. Yankees -1.5||0-5||Win||130||19 h 25 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* Michael Pineda is better than his numbers look. Pineda has 40 strikeouts and 8 walks in his last 5 outings, and this is a guy who has a bright future still. His issue has been big innings. If he can be a little more consistent, he'll be very good. Pineda's swinging strike rate is among the highest in the majors, which is a great sign.
Yovani Gallardo walks plenty of guys, and doesn't get swings and misses. He just doesn't have enough in the tank anymore, and he's on my fade list. I don't trust the Yankees offense a lot, but I can't lay the huge moneyline price here, so I'll go with the run line.
The Yankees do have a massive bullpen edge, so if they can get off to an early lead, that bodes very well for them. Take New York -1.5.
|07-20-16||Rays v. Rockies OVER 11.5||11-3||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Rays have a miserable .302 weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they have a very good .342 wOBA against lefties. Tampa Bay will face Jorge De La Rosa on Wednesday afternoon at Coors Field. De La Rosa has struggled this year, and this is a difficult spot for him.
Chris Archer hasn't been himself this year. Archer is giving up a bunch of home runs, and he is walking too many people. That's a bad combination for Coors Field. Colorado hits right handed pitching very well.
Coors Field is always a hitters park, but in the afternoon with a 91 degree temperature at gametime, these are perfect conditions for an over.
Paul Emmel is the umpire here, and the over is 86-55 in his last 141 games behind home plate. Take the over.
|07-20-16||Braves v. Reds UNDER 9||3-6||Push||0||15 h 44 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Atlanta Braves start Lucas Harrell here. Harrell has been pretty good so far this year. He has a nice 3.63 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. Harrell pitched well in Triple A before getting called up to the big leagues.
The Reds start Anthony Desclafani, and he is a very talented youngster. Desclafani has a 2.55 ERA on the year and a 3.48 FIP. He is due for some regression, but I do expect Desclafani to be a good pitcher through the rest of the season.
These two offenses are weak. The Braves have the worst offense in the majors. The Reds offense ranks near the bottom in most categories as well.
Angel Hernandez is calling the balls and strikes here and he's a solid under umpire. He has a big strike zone, and he'll help both starters in this one. It is an early get away day game, which means there may be some big names out of the lineup as well. This total is too high given the situation.
The under is 6-0 in the Braves last 6 games vs a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-2 in Desclafani's last 5 starts. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts following a quality start last outing. A 12-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-19-16||White Sox v. Mariners UNDER 8||6-1||Win||100||22 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago White Sox have scored a grand total of 4 runs in their last five games. This White Sox offense has really been in a severe funk. Jose Quintana has gotten terrible run support for the last three years, and this year is no different.
Quintana is one of the most underrated pitchers in the majors, but he can't pick up the wins because the run support severely lacks in his games. Wade Miley isn't a great pitcher, but he is better than his numbers so far this year suggest. Expect a better second half from him.
Seattle's offense has been much worse against lefties this year, and they are up against a very good one.
Kerwin Danley is behind home plate here and that's a very good thing for the under.
The under is 4-0-1 in the White Sox last 5 games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game two of a series. The under is 4-0 in Danley's last 4 games behind home plate. A 26-0 angle. Take the under.
|07-19-16||Rangers v. Angels OVER 9.5||6-8||Win||100||22 h 32 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels offense is red hot right now. They put up 9 runs last night after being held scoreless through the first 3 innings. It would be a big surprise if the Angels are quieted down here by Kyle Lohse. Lohse has a 5.06 ERA in 10 Triple A starts this year. Simply put, he isn't the answer for Texas as a starting pitcher. I expect this to go badly for him.
Tim Lincecum had one decent outing against Oakland, and it has been all downhill since then. The Rangers have been very good on the road, and they should have a lot of scoring chances.
Both of these bullpens rank in the worst five pens in the majors.
Mark Wegner is the umpire here, and he rates in my top 5 over umpires according to my spreadsheet. This is a guy who doesn't like to call strikes, and he can create some ump shows with his unwillingness to call strike three even on good pitches.
Take the over.
|07-19-16||Brewers v. Pirates -132||Top||2-3||Win||100||17 h 49 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Play Oddsmaker ERROR* The Pittsburgh Pirates should be a much bigger favorite than this. Pittsburgh starts Jameson Taillon, and he has a bright future ahead of him. Taillon has tremendous control and that is what sets him apart from most young starters. He doesn't pitch himself into trouble.
Junior Guerra has pitched pretty well this year, but his advanced metrics suggest he is due for some regression. The Pirates lineup hasn't always shown it this year, but I still believe this is a very good offense. Pittsburgh has far more depth than the average lineup.
The Pirates bullpen was terrible early in the year, but they have been much better in recent weeks. The Brewers bullpen is a clear weakness.
Milwaukee is 19-41 in their last 60 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 16-35 in their last 51 vs. the NL Central. They are 1-5 in their last 6 at Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are playing with confidence right now, and they still have plenty to play for through the rest of the year. The Brewers are definitely sellers at the deadline, and this line is too short.
Take Pittsburgh big. Top Rated Play.
|07-18-16||Rangers +120 v. Angels||5-9||Loss||-100||20 h 1 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Texas Rangers have been great as an underdog this year. The Rangers are a team that I believe will regress some in the second half, but at this price, I like them on Monday night. Texas starts A.J. Griffin in this one. Griffin has clearly pitched poorly in his last couple starts, but he is a guy who is more than capable of pitching well here. In 5 career starts in Los Angeles against the Angels, he has a solid 3.09 ERA.
Nick Tropeano has a 3.12 ERA, but his FIP if 4.74. Tropeano has stranded 90.8% of runners so far this year. That isn't even close to sustainable. Tropeano has pitched almost a full run worse at home in his career than he has on the road.
The Angels are 19-26 on the year at home, and the Rangers are 26-23 on the road. This game is mispriced in my opinion. We'll back the underdog here. Take Texas.
|07-17-16||Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8||1-3||Win||100||18 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees square off in a big Sunday night showdown. The Red Sox have won the first two in this series, and look to finish off a sweep here.
David Price has been throwing the ball really well lately. Price pitched into some terrible luck early in the year, and it was only a matter of time until his results improved. The Yankees have struggled all year against left handed pitching, and I think Price can pitch deep into this one.
Masahiro Tanaka has held this Red Sox lineup to a .240 average and a .258 OBP all-time. If Tanaka can pitch well here and turn it over to the best bullpen in the majors, that bodes well for this under play.
The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4. The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 after a win. The under is 5-0 in the Red Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0 in Price's last 5 starts vs. the AL East. An 18-0 angle. Take the under.
|07-17-16||Astros -103 v. Mariners||8-1||Win||100||14 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline SMASHER* The Houston Astros are red hot right now. Houston's offense has been inconsistent this year, but not enough people are paying attention to the amazing work of their bullpen. The Astros bullpen consistently ranks in the top 3 bullpens in the majors in every category.
Collin McHugh is pitching in decent form right now, and this Mariners offense has struggled at home this year. The Astros bullpen is significantly better than the Mariners bullpen, so that is a big advantage.
Mike Montgomery has never really proven himself as a starter. I don't expect him to get deep into this game, and the Astros should create scoring chances on this bullpen.
The Astros are 21-5 in McHugh's last 26 starts vs. the AL West. Take Houston.
|07-17-16||Rockies v. Braves UNDER 7.5||0-1||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves haven't given Julio Teheran any run support this year. They are averaging only 2.00 runs per game in his home starts this year. Teheran has been very solid, and he faces a Rockies lineup that generally struggles to score on the road.
Jon Gray is a very good young pitcher, and I expect him to be the ace of this Colorado staff for the next few years. Gray hasn't totally figured out pitching at home, but he has been great on the road. His raw stuff is excellent, and the Braves offense is among the worst in all of baseball.
The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 games during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in the Braves last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 after a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a right hander. The under is 5-0 in Teheran's last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 starts following a Braves loss. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts vs. the NL West. A 34-0 angle. Take the under.
|07-16-16||Blue Jays v. A's +118||4-5||Win||118||13 h 48 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* Sonny Gray appears to be righting the ship. In his last 4 starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less in three of those games. Gray's FIP has been considerably better in recent outings, which suggests that it hasn't been just good luck.
Gray has been much better in day games in his career (2.77 ERA vs. a 3.47 ERA at night). He also has a 2.67 ERA in four career starts vs. the Blue Jays. Gray has a fantastic 2.05 ERA on 6 plus days of rest in his career. Gray also has a great 1.88 ERA in 4 starts with Mike Muchlinski behind home plate.
R.A. Dickey has a 3.93 ERA on the year, but a 5.06 FIP. Dickey is likely to regress, and he has been bad at Oakland in the past.
Gray isn't being respected by the oddsmakers like he used to be in the past. The Blue Jays are good, but the A's have the better starting pitcher on the mound here. At this nice plus money price, I'm taking the home team. Take Oakland.
|07-10-16||A's v. Astros UNDER 8.5||1-2||Win||100||16 h 25 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB First Half Finale CASH* The Houston Astros have struggled against left handed pitching this year. Houston ranks 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitchers. Sean Manaea has been a little shaky in his first few outings in the big leagues, but he has great stuff and has a ton of potential.
Dallas Keuchel has been pitching better in recent games. Keuchel has always been much better at home, and he gets the home start here. His day game ERA in his career is 3.57 (3.91 at night), so that's another positive for him. This A's lineup is weaker than the average as well. The Astros have a shutdown bullpen also.
Vic Carapazza is calling the balls and strikes here, and he is a big under guy. He ranks in the top 8 umpires in the big leagues in strikes called both this year and in the past five years overall. His strikeout/walk ratio is much higher than the league average. His presence here is a big positive for the under.
The under is 21-8 in the Astros last 29 games. The under is 4-0 in Carapazza's last 4 Sunday games behind the plate.
Take the under.
|07-09-16||Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8.5||7-6||Loss||-105||18 h 2 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians start Danny Salazar in this one, and he has been great this year. Salazar does sometimes struggle with issuing too many free passes, but with Phil Cuzzi behind the home plate, he gets a massive strike zone to work with. Salazar has great strikeout stuff, and this Yankees lineup has been a disappointment this year.
C.C. Sabathia has been pretty solid this year. Sabathia has a 3.48 ERA and a 3.80 FIP. Sabathia isn't going to wow anyone, but he is better than many realize as well.
The Indians bullpen has been much better of late, and everyone knows how good this Yankees bullpen can be.
The wind is blowing is forecasted to be blowing in at about 15 mph for this one.
The under is 7-0 in Sabathia's last 7 starts on four days of rest. The under is 3-0-1 in Salazar's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in Cuzzi's last 6 games behind home plate. A 16-0 angle. Take the under.
|07-09-16||A's v. Astros -1.5||3-2||Loss||-100||14 h 53 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Houston Astros have the edge in every facet of the game here. Lance McCullers is a much better pitcher than Kendall Graveman. The Astros offense is better than the Oakland offense. The Astros bullpen is far better than the Oakland bullpen. The Houston defense is also much better than the Oakland defense (Oakland is last in the majors here).
Lance McCullers has an amazing 1.97 ERA in his career when pitching at home. He'll be at home here against a subpar Oakland offense. McCullers has a swinging strike rate of 13.1%, which is among the best you'll ever see. Basically, this guy is great at missing bats.
Kendall Graveman has a swinging strike rate of only 8.4%. He's been getting fortunate in some recent games, and I think now is a good time to fade him. He has been torched by Houston in limited action.
The Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 games vs. a right handed starter. The A's are 17-47 in their last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Houston -1.5.
|07-08-16||Phillies v. Rockies -124||5-3||Loss||-124||20 h 4 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Colorado Rockies start Jon Gray in this one. Gray has had some trouble with the home run ball, but the Phillies have less power than most teams. Philadelphia's lineup is one of the weakest in the majors.
On the whole, Gray is a very good pitcher with a bright future ahead of him. He has struggled in his career at Coors Field, but he has shown signs of coming around of late in his home games. I also believe that facing a team like the Phillies helps quite a bit in his case.
Vincent Velasquez is coming back from an injury, and I don't see the Phillies pushing him deep into this game. Velasquez needs a bigger arsenal in the long term (he throws a fastball 65% of the time), and his inability to throw his "other" pitches well enough should hurt him in Colorado.
The Phillies have played better of late, but the Rockies have the better pitcher and the much better offense here. This is a good price on the Rockies at home. Take Colorado.
|07-08-16||Reds v. Marlins -1.5||1-3||Win||100||17 h 21 m||Show|
*4 Star TGIF BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins start Jose Fernandez at home, and that's a great thing for them. The Marlins are 28-3 in Fernandez's last 31 home starts. Here, he is facing a Reds team that just isn't any good. Cincinnati is 25-64 in their last 89 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Fernandez was roughed up by the Braves in Atlanta in his last start. This is the perfect spot for him to bounce back at home, where he has a career 1.48 ERA. He'll face a Reds lineup that strikes out a lot. Fernandez is striking out 13.1 batters per nine innings this year.
Miami's offense has been very good this year. The emergence of Ozuna as a star and Christian Yelich as a very good hitter have been big for the. Stanton had been bad all year until the last few days, and now he is breaking out.
Miami has a very good .332 OBP against right handed pitching and they'll face Dan Straily, who has a road ERA above 5. The Reds bullpen is also the worst in baseball.
I like Fernandez to bounce back and the Marlins to win comfortably. Take Miami -1.5.
|07-08-16||Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 10||0-6||Loss||-105||19 h 60 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Mike Pelfrey is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Pelfrey constantly puts a bunch of guys on base, and is able to get out of trouble more often than you'd think, but when he faces the best offenses that generally doesn't work. The Blue Jays didn't look like one of the best offenses early this year, but the potential was always there. They are finally hitting the ball extremely well right now.
Toronto has scored 44 runs in their last five games. Pelfrey should have a lot of trouble quieting this offense.
J.A. Happ has outpitched his peripheral stats all year. Happ isn't a terrible pitcher, but he also isn't that good. Happ has a tough matchup here in that he faces a Detroit offense that can stack up all kinds of right handed power bats against him. Happ has an ERA of 5.6 in his career against the Tigers. He allowed 6 runs in 5 innings earlier this year against the Tigers.
Joe West is a good over umpire, and both pitchers have struggled with him behind the dish in the past. The over is also 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
|07-08-16||Cubs v. Pirates +1.5||4-8||Win||100||19 h 49 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Pittsburgh Pirates still remember when Jake Arrieta shut them down and ended their season in the one-game playoff last year in Pittsburgh. There is all kinds of motivation for the Pirates in this game, and this time Arrieta enters the game skidding.
Arrieta has had a lot of control issues of late. The Cubs right hander has walked 14 batters in his last 4 starts. That's a recipe for trouble against a Pirates lineup that has been hitting the ball really well of late.
Francisco Liriano is the one worry here. Liriano has been pretty bad this year. He has a track record of pitching much better at home though, and the Cubs are in a terrible spot here. Chicago played a late game that went into extra innings last night and then arrived late for this one.
The Cubs haven't been as good lately, and the Pirates are red hot. This line on a +1.5 is too good for me to pass on. Take Pittsburgh +1.5.
|07-07-16||Pirates +145 v. Cardinals||1-5||Loss||-100||12 h 22 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Super Value Play* The St. Louis Cardinals are 18-26 at home this year. Things are heading in the wrong direction for the Cardinals as well. Matt Carpenter is arguably the team's best players, and he went down with what looked like a fairly serious oblique injury. Carpenter will likely be on the DL after this injury. Brandon Moss has been solid this year as well, and he's out with an injury.
Adam Wainwright has been better of late, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have always given him trouble. Wainwright has a 4.30 ERA against the Pirates in his career, and this has been a team that has given him fits.
Pittsburgh and St. Louis are going in different directions right now. The Pirates are red hot, and the Cardinals are reeling.
The Pirates bullpen was a major problem early in the year, but they have been great of late. Pittsburgh's bullpen has been significantly better than the Cardinals bullpen in the past month.
Tyler Glasnow starts this game for Pittsburgh and this is his MLB debut. Glasnow is the Pirates top pitching prospect, and he has elite stuff. Glasnow had a 2.20 ERA in Triple A last year, and his ERA in Triple A this year is only 1.78.
There is obviously some risk with backing a pitcher in their first start of the year, but at this price I do like this selection quite a bit. The healthier team with all the momentum catching a big price. Take Pittsburgh.
|07-06-16||Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5||13-6||Win||100||20 h 36 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres offense has been bad for the year as a whole, but they have been much better in the past month. The Padres have gotten much improved hitting from Upton as well as Matt Kemp in recent weeks.
The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has improved as Yasmany Tomas and Jean Segura have produced very well in the last month.
Chase Field is a great hitters park when the roof is open, and it is proving to still be a pretty good park for hitters when the roof is closed.
Shelby Miller starts for the Diamondbacks and his numbers this year are just awful. Miller allowed only 26.7% hard contact last year, but this year it is up to 35%. That's a very telling number. He is walking 4.62 batters per nine innings, and that has hurt him badly.
Colin Rea isn't very good, and on the road his ERA is north of 5. Rea doesn't have enough plus pitches.
Both bullpens are taxed and have pitched poorly of late.
The over is 6-0 in Rea's last 6 following a quality start. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The over is 5-0 in the Padres last 5 vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 7-0 in Rea's last 7 games after the Padres gave up 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in the DBacks last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a righty. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 home games overall. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up 5 runs or more. The over is 5-0-1 in Miller's last 6 starts when the DBacks opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. A 56-0 angle.
Take the over.
|07-06-16||Yankees -135 v. White Sox||0-5||Loss||-135||19 h 17 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees offense got going in a big way last night. I've believed all year that the Yankees offense is a little better than they have shown to this point. New York has a lot of guys who have underachieved. They have shown signs of breaking out, and last night was a great performance by them against a solid starter in Rodon.
Miguel Gonzalez isn't a good pitcher. Gonzalez has constantly had a FIP of around 5 over the past few years. He doesn't induce enough swinging strikes, and he is prone to the big inning.
Michael Pineda has pitched much better in his last few starts. Pineda has a 5.24 ERA, but his FIP is 3.84 and his XFIP is 3.27. Pineda has been very consistent of late. His FIP has been 3.17 or lower in each of his last four starts. He is getting more swings and misses than at any other point in his career.
The White Sox offense is scoring 5.34 runs per game against lefties, but only 3.93 against right handed pitching.
New York has a massive edge in the bullpen. Chicago's bullpen ranks dead last in the majors in the past month. Injuries have caught up to the White Sox in the bullpen.
Good price on Pineda and the Yankees. Take New York.
|07-06-16||Marlins v. Mets -1.5||2-4||Win||120||10 h 13 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets start Jacob Degrom in this one. While Degrom got off to a bit of a slow start, he has been throwing the ball really well of late. He has a quality start in seven straight outings. He has allowed one run or less in 4 of those 7 outings.
Degrom has a long history of pitching better in the daytime. Degrom has a solid 3.19 ERA at night, and a ridiculously good 1.68 ERA in his career in day games.
The Mets offense has obviously heated up of late as they torched Cubs pitching all weekend long. Justin Nicolino is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Nicolino has allowed 38 hits in his last four starts. He is striking out only 4.15 batters per nine innings, and his swinging strike rate is extremely low.
The Mets have a huge starting pitching edge, and they also have a bullpen advantage. I'll take the value on the run line in this one. Take New York -1.5.
|07-05-16||Orioles v. Dodgers OVER 7.5||4-1||Loss||-100||21 h 42 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night MONEYMAKER* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has finally heated up. They underachieved for a long time. Los Angeles has scored 5 runs or more in five of their last seven games. They have only scored less than 4 once in their last seven games. Corey Seager is leading the way for this lineup.
Chris Tillman was never as good as his numbers earlier this year looked. Tillman is a mediocre pitcher and he has slumped in a big way in recent outings. I'll be surprised if the Dodgers don't keep up their recent streak of good hitting with Tillman on the mound for Baltimore.
Kenta Maeda is a good pitcher for the Dodgers, but this Baltimore offense is excellent against right handed pitching. Baltimore averages 5.37 runs per game against right handed pitching. Baltimore has so many power hitters, and I think a home run or two from them here is likely.
The over is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 interleague road games. The over is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-0 in home plate umpire Mike DiMuro's last 8 games behind home plate. A 26-0 angle. Take the over.
|07-05-16||Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5||5-7||Win||105||19 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank third in weighted on base average against left-handed pitching so far this year. Christian Friedrich is definitely a subpar left-handed pitcher. Friedrich has some solid starts earlier in the year, but he is trending downward in recent outings. I expect him to give up several runs in this one.
The Padres bullpen has been overworked of late, and they have been getting hit hard. Arizona should have plenty of chances to score late as well.
Zach Godley hasn't been a good starter in the big leagues, and he hasn't even pitched well as a starter in the minors. Godley doesn't have enough good pitches to get through the order multiple times consistently.
The over is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or less. The over is 6-0 in Friedrich's last 6 starts when the Padres opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in the DBacks last 5 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. A 34-0 angle. Take the over.
|07-05-16||Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8||2-5||Win||100||19 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Dallas Keuchel has been slowly getting his act together of late. Keuchel has always been much better at home, and I expect a good performance from him in this one. Keuchel has had much better control in his last few starts, and that has been key for him.
Taijuan Walker has been good this year, and he has the stuff to breakout in a big way. The Astros lineup was scorching hot for a while, but they appear to be cooling off a bit of late.
Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one, and in my umpires database he has called the second highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the big leagues in the past five years. He is a great under umpire. Miller has a good over record this year, but he is still calling a lot of strikes and ringing up a lot of batters. He's an under guy. If this play loses, it won't be because of Miller.
Look for a low scoring game. Take the under.
|07-04-16||Orioles v. Dodgers -147||5-7||Win||100||20 h 17 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB RED HOT Cash* The Baltimore Orioles have been dominant at home, but they are five games under .500 on the road. Baltimore has a great offense in general, but their offense is much weaker against lefties than right handed pitching. The Orioles are second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but only 16th against lefties.
Julio Urias has pitched brilliantly at home in his young career. Urias has received a bunch of hype, and he definitely deserves it, because this kid has great stuff. He is going to have a great career barring injury.
Yovani Gallardo is a shell of his former self. Gallardo relies way too heavily on his slider for my liking, and I see him as a guy to look to fade.
The Dodgers have the second best bullpen ERA in baseball, and the Orioles bullpen has been disappointing of late. Baltimore has a strong back of the bullpen, but the middle relief is awful.
Baltimore is 0-4 in their last 4 road games. They are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more. The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games. They are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 7-0 in their last 7 games after allowing 2 runs or less last game. A 27-0 angle. Take Los Angeles.
|07-04-16||A's v. Twins -106||3-1||Loss||-106||13 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Minnesota Twins have won four of their last seven games. They just took two games in a row from the Texas Rangers. Minnesota isn't nearly as bad as they looked early in the year, and their offense has finally hit its stride.
Oakland is a bad team, and Kendall Graveman has never impressed me. The Athletics are 4-9 in Graveman's last 13 road starts. Oakland's defense is the worst in baseball, and that's more important than most people realize.
Ricky Nolasco has pitched into some bad batted ball luck this year. Nolasco has a 5.20 ERA but a FIP of 4.03.
I'll take the Twins at this nice price. Take Minnesota.
|07-04-16||Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5||5-12||Win||120||13 h 52 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox got back on track with a 10-5 win over the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. Texas was beaten in Minnesota. Boston has the advantage having been at home on Sunday and getting plenty of rest. They also have the much better pitcher in this game.
Rick Porcello isn't necessarily a great pitcher. He is a guy who you can count on to finish with somewhere in the range of a 4.00 ERA. In the American League, that's not bad. Texas has a great offense against lefties (.287 average), but they have only a .251 average against right handed pitching.
Boston has the best offense in baseball against right handed pitching, and they are facing a weak one in Nick Martinez here. Martinez has a 5.00 ERA on the year thus far, but his FIP is 7.22 and his XFIP is 7.00. Basically, he's been very lucky to not have a higher ERA. Martinez has walked almost twice as many batters as he has struck out this year. That's awful.
Texas isn't as good as their record, and Martinez is a bad pitcher. Take Boston -1.5.
|07-03-16||Pirates v. A's OVER 8.5||6-3||Win||100||16 h 33 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Oakland Athletics have scored 6 runs or more in 6 of their last 8 games. The first two games of this series against Pittsburgh are the games that they haven't scored those 6 runs. I think they have a real chance to get back to scoring runs again in this one.
Francisco Liriano has been terrible in general this year, and he has been especially bad on the road. Liriano has a 5.33 ERA overall this year and a 5.46 FIP, so it isn't bad luck that is getting him this season. Liriano has a horrible 6.98 ERA in seven road starts this year.
Oakland is much better against lefties than right handed pitchers. The A's average 4.82 runs per game against lefties on the year. Josh Reddick is back in the lineup for Oakland, and he got on base every time he came to the plate last night. He is a big key to the offense in Oakland.
Pittsburgh will face rookie Daniel Mengden here. Mengden has good numbers, but he hasn't faced great offenses thus far. Mengden is still raw and this Pirates lineup is underrated.
Sam Holbrook is the umpire here, and he ranks 82nd out of 88 umpires in strikes called in the past five years. Less strikes called is obviously a great thing for the over.
The over is 4-0 in the Pirates last 4 Sunday games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after their opponent scores 2 runs or less. The over is 4-0 in Liriano's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 8-1-1 in the A's last 10 games. A 26-1 angle. Take the over.
|07-03-16||White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5||4-1||Win||100||15 h 5 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jose Quintana has been one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball the last couple years. Quintana had a 3.32 ERA in 2014. He had a 3.36 ERA last year. He has a 3.18 ERA so far this year. He's just a rock solid lefty.
Quintana has great control and typically keeps the ball in the ballpark very well. That's important since Houston is a power hitting team. Quintana's strikeout rate is the best of his career right now as well. Houston has a .248 average against right handed pitchers and only a .227 average against lefties.
The White Sox offense has been a big disappointment of late. Chicago will go up against Collin McHugh here. McHugh has allowed only 5 runs in his last three starts.
The White Sox bullpen is bad, but Quintana generally pitches deep into the game. The Astros bullpen is one of the best in baseball.
The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in Quintana's last 5 starts after the White Sox allowed 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 games after the White Sox opponent scored 5 runs or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the Astros last 4 Sunday games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after their opponent scores 5 runs or more. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 after Houston gives up 5 runs or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in McHugh's last 4 Sunday starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 5 days rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 51-0 angle.
Take the under.
|07-03-16||Angels +104 v. Red Sox||5-10||Loss||-100||12 h 40 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* The Los Angeles Angels put up 21 runs yesterday against Boston. Yes, you read that correctly. C.J. Cron led the way by going 6 for 6 with 2 home runs.
I don't like to make a habit of betting on teams that just had a massive offensive explosion the day before, but with Sean O'Sullivan on the hill for Boston here, I have to back the Angels.
I have no idea how O'Sullivan got back into the majors. He has proven time and time again to not be able to get big league hitters out. The Angels got a lot of confidence out of yesterday's game, and I see them coming back with another strong offensive performance (not like yesterday's of course).
Matt Shoemaker has been excellent of late. Since finding a mechanical flaw and fixing it, Shoemaker has been lights out. In his last 8 games, he only has one game with an XFIP over 4 (and that was 4.07). Shoemaker is pitching great right now, and the Boston offense has been much weaker in the past couple weeks.
The Angels are 12-5 in their last 17 games at Fenway Park. Take the Angels.
|07-02-16||Pirates +159 v. A's||4-2||Win||159||21 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Super Saturday VALUE Play* The Pittsburgh Pirates have a better team than the Oakland Athletics. Pittsburgh certainly has the better offense by a large margin. Pittsburgh has underachieved so far on the year, and I believe they can improve if this team stays together the rest of the season.
Oakland has a low ceiling. The Athletics aren't any good. Oakland is just 17-24 at home, and yet they are -170 in this game. Does that make any sense at all? Rich Hill has been good for Oakland this year, but this line is priced like one of the best pitchers in baseball is throwing for Oakland in this one. Remember also, Hill is coming off an injury and is unlikely to get past more than 5 innings or so in this game. The Athletics bullpen is middle of the road this year.
Chad Kuhl pitched well in his first start. This isn't really a play on him though, it's just a play on a price that is simply too high to pass up.
The Pirates are 26-11 in their last 37 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Pittsburgh.
|07-02-16||Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8||0-3||Loss||-110||15 h 34 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* It's hard to be any worse against a team than Jimmy Nelson has been against the St. Louis Cardinals. Nelson has a miserable 9.51 ERA against the Cardinals in 6 career appearances. When pitching in St. Louis, his ERA is an even worse 11.81.
This Cardinals offense is tremendous against right handed pitching, and Nelson is just the type of guy that they could blast in a big way. St. Louis should put up quite a few runs in this one.
Adam Wainwright has been a bit better of late, but he still isn't what he was in the past.
Barber is the home plate umpire in this one and he ranks in the bottom five in terms of strikes called so far this year, which means he is a very good guy to have behind the dish if you are betting an over.
The over is 5-0 in Nelson's last 5 starts vs. the Cardinals. Take the over.
|07-02-16||Tigers -122 v. Rays||3-2||Win||100||14 h 8 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have been absolutely crushing the baseball of late. Detroit underachieved offensively in a big way early in the season, but they are making up for it now. The Tigers have scored 10 runs in three straight games. They have scored 37 runs in their last four games overall.
Blake Snell has been wild in his first few games in the majors. Snell has a high upside, but I'm not sure he is ready for the majors quite yet. Detroit's lineup is great against lefties, because they can stack up all kinds of right handed bats. Snell hasn't faced a lineup this good yet, and I don't see him faring well against them.
Justin Verlander had a rough outing in his last game, but he has a great 2.70 ERA in seven career starts at Tampa Bay. The Rays are terrible against right handed pitching (7-19 in their last 26 vs. a right handed pitcher). Tampa Bay is badly banged up with injuries, and that will help Verlander here.
The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. They are 4-0 in their last 4 overall. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a lefty. They are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. They are 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. The Rays are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a right handed pitcher. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the AL Central. They are 0-4 in their last 4 Saturday games. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games after losing the first two games of the series. The Tigers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 46-0 angle. Take Detroit.
|07-01-16||Pirates v. A's OVER 8||7-3||Win||102||22 h 35 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Friday 100% Total PERFECTION* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense is a pretty good one. Pittsburgh is one of the rare National League teams that can go into an American League park and have plenty of hitting depth to be able to get a good designated hitter into the lineup.
Oakland's offense is much better with Josh Reddick healthy again. Reddick is the key to this lineup. Oakland's offense has been scorching hot of late. The Athletics haven't scored less than 6 runs in any of their last seven games.
Jeff Locke is on the mound for the Pirates and he is awful, especially on the road. Locke doesn't miss enough bats, and he puts too many guys on base. He's constantly pitching out of trouble. Locke is coming off a couple good starts at home, and I think that has helped keep this total low. It is important to remember that Locke had a 5.63 road ERA last year and his road ERA this year is 7.36.
Sonny Gray has been somewhat better his last couple starts, but he faces a good Pittsburgh lineup here, and I'm still not sure his issues from earlier in the year are completely behind him.
The Pirates bullpen is one of the five worst in baseball and the A's bullpen is middle of the road.
The over is 4-0 in the Pirates last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0-1 in Locke's last 5 Friday starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts after the team allowed 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0 in the A's last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0-1 in the A's last 8 games overall. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague games. The over is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. A 45-0 angle. Take the over.
|07-01-16||White Sox v. Astros -1.5||0-5||Win||125||7 h 58 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Houston Astros start Mike Fiers in this one. Fiers has been much better when pitching at home than on the road. How big is the difference? So far this year, Fiers' opponents have a .400 weighted on base average on the road. At home, it is only .297. Those splits are about as big as you will ever see from anyone. In 12 career starts in Houston, Fiers has a 2.66 ERA.
Miguel Gonzalez isn't a good pitcher. Gonzalez was crushed by Toronto in his last game, and now he faces a red hot Houston lineup. Jose Altuve is scorching hot, and George Springer and Carlos Correa have really picked up their production level in the past few weeks.
Chicago's bullpen has been the single worst in the majors in the past month, while Houston ranks as the third best.
Fiers is a better pitcher than Gonzalez. Houston has the better offense. Houston has the much better bullpen. At this nice plus money price, I'm taking Houston -1.5.
|06-29-16||Astros -138 v. Angels||10-4||Win||100||15 h 50 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Astros are playing some great baseball right now. This team was always better than their record to start the season. Houston has some nice pieces, and now things are clicking. Carlos Correa and George Springer are starting to hit much better, and Jose Altuve has been great all year. This is a great young nucleus.
Dallas Keuchel started the season slowly, but his control has improved in recent outings. Less working from behind in the count has been key for Keuchel. He has a 2.73 ERA in his last 3 starts in Anaheim. The Angels offense has been streaky all year, and they have slowed down of late again.
Jered Weaver just isn't good anymore. Weaver has a 5.24 ERA and his FIP and XFIP are higher than that. If anything, he has had good luck so far this year. Weaver has tried to be crafty, but with an 80 mph fastball it is very difficult to get out big leaguers.
The Astros have one of the top three bullpens in baseball, while the Angels have one of the worst three bullpens in the majors.
Houston is 9-0 in their last 9 Wednesday games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. They are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The Angels are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a lefty. They are 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. They are 0-8 in Weaver's last 8 starts after their opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The Astros are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. A 42-0 angle. Take Houston.
|06-29-16||Blue Jays -125 v. Rockies||5-3||Win||100||15 h 30 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Afternoon Bookie BEATDOWN* The Colorado Rockies have some key injuries right now. Colorado's middle infield is banged up in a big way. Trevor Story and DJ LeMahieu are both injured and questionable for this game. They are clearly a big part of this team. Carlos Gonzalez is less than 100 percent as well.
Toronto is getting healthier, and the Blue Jays definitely have the better offense here. The Blue Jays have Troy Tulowitzki back in the fold, and he keyed a big inning yesterday. Toronto should score a lot of runs in this one. Tyler Anderson starts for Colorado, and he's a youngster who has looked shaky at Coors Field. The Blue Jays are great against lefties, and this is a tough spot for him.
Aaron Sanchez has been much improved this year. Sanchez has a banged up Rockies lineup to work through, and while he'll certainly give up some, I expect him to have a decent amount of success in this game.
Good price on the road team. Take Toronto.
|06-29-16||Marlins v. Tigers OVER 9.5||3-10||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers can put up runs in a hurry. Last night was a great example of that. They scored 7 runs in the fifth inning en route to a 7-5 win over Miami. The Tigers have a lot of guys who can beat you, and this is a tough lineup for any pitcher to work through.
Tom Koehler is a guy I like to fade when I can. I expect him to struggle here. His ERA in day games is 4.52 (3.89 at night). His road ERA is 4.49 in his career. This is one of the best offenses he has ever faced, especially since he doesn't get to face a pitcher in this game.
Daniel Norris has a lot of potential, but he has yet to realize it. The Marlins are an underrated offense, and they are especially good against left handed pitching. It would be a surprise if Norris is able to shut this offense down.
Neither bullpen is particularly strong and we have a day game with the wind blowing out here. The umpire in this one is an over umpire as well.
Take the over.
|06-28-16||Orioles v. Padres OVER 8.5||11-7||Win||100||17 h 24 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* These two teams met in Baltimore last week with the same pitching matchup and the total was 10.5. San Diego is a pitcher's park, but it isn't worth two runs on the line.
Erik Johnson is about as bad as any starter you'll see in the majors. Johnson has an ERA above 8 and his FIP is above 8 as well. This Orioles lineup has been on fire, and I don't see him slowing them down.
Ubaldo Jimenez has an ERA over 10 in his last three road starts. Jimenez allowed only 2 runs against the Padres last time, but getting a second look at him in this short period should help San Diego. The Padres offense has been good of late.
The over is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in the Padres last 5 home games. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0-2 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in Jimenez's last 4 starts when his opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. A 27-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-28-16||Astros v. Angels OVER 8.5||7-1||Loss||-115||9 h 40 m||Show|
*4 Star Play Over* I like this pitching matchup for the over, and I also like the umpire we drew. Sam Holbrook has been a great long term over umpire. While he has had some unders of late, his strike percentage tells me he is still a good guy to have behind the plate when you have an over bet.
Tim Lincecum isn't likely to pitch deep into the game, and I don't trust him to be able to get an improving Astros offense out. The Angels bullpen is terrible.
Feldman has always been a fade guy for me, and the Angels offense is hitting well of late.
Take the over.
|06-28-16||Cardinals +108 v. Royals||8-4||Win||108||4 h 7 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Bookie SMASHER* I was strongly considering the St. Louis Cardinals before the lineups were even released, and after I see the lineup that Kansas City has tonight, I have to take the Cardinals.
Kansas City is playing a bunch of backups. Drew Butera is in for Salvador Perez which is a big step down for the Royals. Gordon is also out. The Royals have their weakest possible lineup.
Michael Wacha hasn't been great this year, but he has been much better than Yordano Ventura. Ventura is also on an odd schedule here since he was suspended. That's difficult when you are accustomed to pitching on 4 or 5 days of rest.
The Cardinals lineup is tremendous against right handed pitching.
Take St. Louis.
|06-28-16||Marlins v. Tigers OVER 9.5||5-7||Win||100||16 h 11 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Marlins offense has been hitting the ball well. There are several underrated hitters in this lineup, and they have a nice future ahead of them. Miami is likely to put up quite a few runs against Mike Pelfrey in this one.
Pelfrey isn't a good pitcher at all to start with, and in this one he'll be pitching on 3 days of rest. That's a negative in my book. Pelfrey puts way too many guys on base.
Adam Conley has been up and down this year, and in this one he'll be up against one of the best offenses in baseball. Unlike most teams in the majors, Detroit can stack a lineup with some great right handed bats all together. This should be a tough outing for him.
The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games on the road. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 interleague games vs. a lefty. The over is 5-0 in Pelfrey's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts when his opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-28-16||Red Sox -104 v. Rays||8-2||Win||100||16 h 10 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Boston Red Sox were embarrassed by Tampa Bay last night. Eduardo Rodriguez was absolutely blasted by a terrible Tampa Bay lineup. Tampa Bay does have good numbers on the season against lefties though. The Rays have a .272 average against lefties on the year. They have a miserable .225 average against right handed pitching. For comparison, Boston has a .288 average against right handed pitching.
Porcello generally gives his team a chance to win, and he's facing a very weak lineup here. Chris Archer hasn't been himself so far this year, and he has a tough lineup to face here. Archer has a career 5.64 ERA against Boston.
Tampa Bay's bullpen has been bad of late, and Boston has a solid bullpen. This price is very affordable. Take Boston.
|06-27-16||Phillies v. Diamondbacks -130||8-0||Loss||-130||19 h 10 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Monday's BEST Bet* The Arizona Diamondbacks have been bad at home so far this year, but I think this is a good chance for them to keep their recent momentum going. They come home to host a bad Philadelphia Phillies team.
After a red hot start, Philadelphia has come crashing down to earth. The Phillies offense is bad in general, but they are terrible against left handed pitching. The Phillies are averaging only 3.06 runs per game with a .222 batting average against left handed pitching so far this season.
Robbie Ray is a mediocre lefty, but I think that should be good enough against this Phillies team. Velasquez comes back from the DL, and he shouldn't pitch deep into the game here. I rate the DBacks as having the better bullpen here as well.
The Phillies are 3-11 in their last 14 road games. Take Arizona.
|06-27-16||Rangers v. Yankees -126||9-6||Loss||-126||17 h 6 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Texas Rangers are 49-27, but I believe the Rangers are getting a little overvalued now. They have been the underdog that constantly hits of late, but I think regression is coming to them as a team. Texas just isn't this good. The rotation isn't good, and they have a bunch of guys pitching way over their head.
Chi Chi Gonzalez comes up to make a start here. Gonzalez walked more batters than he struck out last year. He had some ridiculous batted ball luck which made his numbers look good. Gonzalez has a 5.04 ERA in Triple A on the year this season. He just isn't good.
Ivan Nova isn't a bet on pitcher for me, but the Yankees have the much better bullpen here, and they also have an offense that I believe is better than they have shown in recent games.
71% of the public bets are on the Rangers thus far, and the line is moving toward New York. Take the Yankees.
|06-27-16||Mets v. Nationals UNDER 7||4-11||Loss||-100||18 h 40 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals offense has been good this year against left handed pitching, but they are only mediocre against right handed pitching. Washington will be up against Noah Syndergaard and the Mets in this one.
Syndergaard has been the second most dominant pitcher in baseball this year. He had a brief scare with his elbow, but everything has sounded good coming from the beat writers for the team. The Nationals have a .216 average against Syndergaard all-time.
Joe Ross is a solid starter who should fare well against this Mets lineup that is struggling badly. New York has all sorts of injuries and this offense is really struggling to put together big innings of late.
The under is 12-3-1 in Ross' last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-2 in the Mets last 9 games. Take the under.
|06-26-16||Cardinals v. Mariners -114||11-6||Loss||-114||15 h 3 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals are very good against right handed pitching, but they are 26th in the majors when it comes to weighted on base average against lefties. The Cardinals are unlikely to be able to hit James Paxton very well here. Paxton is racking up the swinging strikes this year, and all his advanced metrics look very good.
Jaime Garcia has been hit hard of late. Garcia has allowed 27 hits in his last three starts. The Mariners have been good against lefties in the past few weeks, and I think this Seattle offense is a little underrated in general.
The price here is affordable since the Mariners are going for the sweep and many like to play the avoid the sweep angle. Seattle has the better pitcher and is at home. This is a short price to lay.
The Cardinals are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague games. They are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. the AL West. They are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NL Central. They are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games. A 28-0 angle. Take Seattle.
|06-26-16||Phillies v. Giants -1.5||7-8||Loss||-114||13 h 46 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Philadelphia Phillies came from behind to beat Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants last night. That makes me like this play a little bit more. The Giants should be focused on this game a little more thanks to that showing.
Johnny Cueto has an ERA of 2.54 in his career in day games. He has always been at his best during the daytime. The Phillies offense is arguably the worst offense in the majors. Philadelphia isn't likely to have much success at all here.
Aaron Nola is a guy with a lot of upside, but he has some major problems right now. He's been getting absolutely crushed his last few games. Nola's swinging strike right has plummeted, and opponents are regularly making hard contact.
Buster Posey sat on Friday so I expect him to play. Lay it with San Francisco -1.5 here.
|06-26-16||Rays v. Orioles UNDER 9.5||5-12||Loss||-117||10 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays played a doubleheader yesterday in the heat. That had to take more out of these teams. That's especially concerning for the Rays, who have gone through nearly everyone on their roster to find someone who can play the outfield with their injury issues.
Tyler Wilson isn't a very good pitcher, but Tampa Bay hasn't been scoring much against anyone of late. The Rays lineup is a mess, and they are much worse against right handed pitchers than lefties.
Drew Smyly is a talented lefty, and Baltimore isn't even close to as good against lefties as righties. Baltimore is 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties at .311. The Orioles are third at .344 against righties.
Smyly also has an amazing track record in Baltimore. In 22 innings pitched, he has a 0.82 ERA.
Adam Hamari is the umpire here, and he is a strike caller. This guy ranks in the top 5 umpires in the majors in strikes called since he arrived in the big leagues.
The under is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs a lefty. The under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. A 15-1 angle. Take the under.
|06-25-16||Mets v. Braves UNDER 7||1-0||Win||100||19 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets played a rare higher scoring meeting last night, but I think things calm back down to the normal lower scoring games we are accustomed to seeing from them in this contest.
Jacob Degrom started the season slowly, but he has gotten much better in recent outings. Degrom has held Braves batters to a .227 average in his career, and Atlanta's offense is just dreadful this season.
Julio Teheran just threw a complete game one hit shutout against the Mets this past weekend. That isn't necessarily that odd for him against the Mets though. Teheran has held Mets hitters to a ridiculously low .165 batting average in his career.
I expect both starters to pitch deep into this game and save up the bullpens.
The under is 4-0 in the Mets last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0 in Degrom's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 following a quality start. The under is 4-0 in the Braves last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in Teheran's last 4 on 5 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. A 29-0 angle. Take the under.
|06-25-16||Padres -105 v. Reds||3-0||Win||100||16 h 21 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres are definitely playing better baseball of late. They have been especially strong offensively against left handed pitching. For the year, San Diego is 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. In the last 30 days, the Padres rank 6th in the majors in overall wOBA. They are swinging hot bats right now, and I don't think Brandon Finnegan will slow them down.
Finnegan is due for some regression as he has had some batted ball luck this year. The Padres have been getting some good hard contact against lefties of late, and I see that continuing here.
Drew Pomeranz is definitely the pitcher I trust more from these two, and he has had a very nice season.
The Padres bullpen isn't great, but it's much better than the Reds bullpen.
The Reds are 2-10 in Finnegan's last 12 starts. The Padres are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a left handed starter. Take San Diego.
|06-25-16||Cubs -1.5 v. Marlins||6-9||Loss||-104||13 h 2 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Chicago Cubs haven't been as good in recent weeks, but this is still a total mismatch. Anthony Rizzo is expected to be back for this game, and that is important. John Lackey has been solid all year, and the Marlins offense is better against lefties.
The key to this bet for me though is Paul Clemens. Clemens has been terrible throughout his career, and I see no reason to trust him in this spot. He had a 6.00 ERA in Triple A with the Phillies last year and a 4.30 ERA in Triple with the Marlins this year. If you can't get minor league hitters out, how can I expect you to get the Cubs lineup out?
Look for Lackey and the Cubs to win this one handily. Take Chicago -1.5.
|06-25-16||Blue Jays v. White Sox OVER 9.5||10-8||Win||110||12 h 5 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* R.A. Dickey has an ERA of 14.59 in three career starts with Angel Hernandez behind home plate. He also has a horrible 9.47 ERA at US Cellular Park. Dickey is also much worse in his career pitching during the day, and this is a day game.
Miguel Gonzalez isn't a very good pitcher, and this White Sox bullpen has been awful in recent weeks. Toronto's offense is as hot as they have been all year. Things are finally starting to click for them. It's hard to imagine them being silenced by Gonzalez and this bullpen.
Hot weather and a day game in Chicago means the ball should be flying well. Look for a high scoring game. Take the over.
|06-25-16||Twins v. Yankees -1.5||1-2||Loss||-100||11 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Run Line Rout* Ervin Santana has an 8.14 ERA at Yankee Stadium in his career. The Yankees offense is slowly getting better as the season goes on, and I think they will put up several runs in this one. Minnesota's bullpen hasn't been good this year, and they have thrown a lot of innings lately.
Michael Pineda is better than his numbers show so far this year. His ERA is far higher than his FIP, XFIP, or SIERA and that suggests he has had bad luck. Additionally, he keeps striking out a ton of guys. When you are missing as many bats as Pineda is, you are doing something right.
Minnesota is just a bad team, and the Yankees are playing pretty good baseball again. I think the Yankees get a lead here and then turn it over to that tremendous bullpen. Take New York -1.5.
|06-24-16||Diamondbacks +128 v. Rockies||10-9||Win||128||6 h 28 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. They'll be facing a lefty tonight at Coors Field. Tyler Anderson has pitched pretty well so far this year, but this is his toughest test so far. Anderson is likely to be a solid starter in the long run, but youngsters usually struggle a lot early on at Coors Field. It is just so unique that it takes time to get accustomed to how things work pitching at that park.
Archie Bradley makes the start for Arizona. Bradley has been inconsistent this year, and he is likely to give up several runs, but it is important to note that Colorado is banged up right now. Carlos Gonzalez left last night's game with a wrist injury and is questionable for this one. It won't be a surprise if he gets the day off. Gerardo Parra is out with an injury right now as well. The Rockies lineup isn't what they once were.
In a game that should be a slugfest, I'll take the nice plus money price, especially when it is the team that has hit lefties so well all season. Take Arizona.
|06-24-16||Padres v. Reds -114||13-4||Loss||-114||19 h 44 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Friday Night CASH* The Cincinnati Reds start Cody Reed in this one. Reed is a pretty highly touted prospect. He is making only his second start of his career in this one, and this is his first home start. I expect Reed to be a good big leaguer, and his slider is the key pitch for him.
While San Diego has hit lefties well this year, this is a guy they have never seen before. San Diego's Colin Rea is starting in this one, and quite frankly he isn't good. Rea has an ERA over 5 in his career, and the Reds have enough offense to get to him in this one. Reed is a much better pitcher than Rea.
The Reds bullpen is certainly a concern and that's why I limited this to a 3 star play, but the Reds bullpen has been a bit better of late. Iglesias is now pitching in the pen for Cincinnati, and that helps them quite a bit.
The pitching mismatch is enough to make me like Cincinnati here. Take Cincinnati.
|06-23-16||White Sox v. Red Sox -1.5||7-8||Loss||-113||17 h 42 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* The Boston Red Sox have had the best offense in the majors all year. James Shields is on an epic bad run of late.
How bad has Shields been of late? Let's take a closer look. Shields has allowed an eye-popping 32 runs in his last 4 starts. 32 runs allowed in only 11 and 1/3 innings pitched. That's just ridiculous. Control both inside and outside of the zone is a major problem, and he obviously has no confidence now. Until he proves he can get big league hitters out, I have to fade him, and this is a really tough lineup to get through.
Boston is in a good situational spot here as well after losing the first 3 games of this series. They have a big pitching advantage and certainly want to get out of this series with one game under their belts.
Rick Porcello has been better this year, and the White Sox have an inconsistent offense. Chicago's bullpen has also been bad in the past month.
Boston gets back on track against Shields.
Take Boston -1.5.
|06-22-16||Phillies v. Twins OVER 8.5||5-6||Win||100||21 h 46 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins are on an amazing run. The over is 14-1 in their last 15 games. Minnesota's offense underachieved early in the year, and they are starting to hit the ball much better of late. At the same time, the Twins rotation and bullpen continue to struggle.
Philadelphia starts Adam Morgan in this one and he has a terrible 6.49 ERA on the year. More than 38% of the batted balls off Morgan have been hit hard, and that's one of the worst ratings in the majors.
Kyle Gibson starts for Minnesota and he has walked almost as many guys as he has struck out this year. That's a major problem. He is susceptible to the big inning.
The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 Wednesday games. The over is 4-0 in Morgan's last 4 Wednesday starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 overall. The over is 7-0-1 in the Twins last 8 interleague home games. The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 interleague games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. A 32-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-22-16||Padres v. Orioles OVER 10||2-7||Loss||-120||7 h 41 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Baltimore Orioles absolutely crush right handed pitching, and Erik Johnson is definitely one of the worst right handed starters in the majors. How bad is he? Johnson has a 7.66 ERA and his FIP is even worse at 8.66. Baltimore should pile up the runs in this one.
Ubaldo Jimenez is on the other side here. Jimenez has an ERA just above 7 on the year. Jimenez is facing a Padres lineup that is surprisingly hot right now. San Diego has scored at least 5 runs in each of their last six games.
San Diego's bullpen is much worse this year than they have been in the past. The Orioles have a good back end of the bullpen, but the middle relief is very weak.
Jerry Meals is the umpire here and he is one of the better over umpires in the majors. Take the over.
|06-22-16||Diamondbacks +158 v. Blue Jays||2-5||Loss||-100||16 h 17 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't as good as the Toronto Blue Jays, but this line is too big for me to pass up. Why? Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties.
J.A. Happ has had a pretty good season this year, but he is a pitch to contact guy, and this Arizona team can really hit those lefties. Happ has an ERA of 3.41 this year, but his FIP is 4.54, so he has definitely gotten fortunate thus far in the season.
Arizona's Robbie Ray has a 4.44 ERA and a 3.99 FIP, indicating he is better than his ERA would suggest. Ray gets to go against a Toronto team without Jose Bautista.
I certainly agree that Toronto should be favored here, but this line is too big. The Blue Jays pen hasn't been very good this year, and Arizona winning a tight game should come as no surprise. Take Arizona.
|06-22-16||Angels v. Astros UNDER 8||2-3||Win||100||14 h 15 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Angels in the final game of a three game set on Wednesday afternoon. This is a get away day game, and those have been lower scoring over the years on average. Expect some key contributors to get the day off in this game.
Matt Shoemaker has been lights out since making some mechanical changes a few starts ago. In his last 6 starts, Shoemaker has 2 walks and 55 strikeouts. Yes, you read that correctly. He's got things working very well right now, and this Astros offense has a lot of guys who strike out a lot.
Lance McCullers is striking out 11.16 batters per nine innings. McCullers has been tremendous this year, and in his career he has been great at home. McCullers has a 5.06 ERA on the road in his career and a 2.05 ERA at home. He'll be at home in this one. He's backed by a bullpen which is one of the best in baseball.
Take the under.
|06-22-16||Royals v. Mets UNDER 7||3-4||Push||0||13 h 23 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Noah Syndergaard was slated to start on Tuesday night, but the Mets wanted to rearrange the schedules for their pitchers and moved him to Wednesday afternoon. Syndergaard has been amazing all year and I see no reason he'll be anything other than that here. He is the rare strikeout pitcher who doesn't walk guys. The Mets had to use up the bullpen last night after Colon got hurt early, and I think Syndergaard will pitch deep into this game to save the bullpen.
Danny Duffy has a much better road ERA in his career (3.35) than he has at home (4.13). The under is 10-1 in Duffy's last 11 road starts. The Mets have been terrible this year, and particularly bad of late, against left handed pitching.
John Hirschbeck is the umpire here and that's a good thing for under bettors with his strike zone. It's hard to see either team scoring many on a get away day afternoon game. Take the under.
|06-22-16||Rockies +147 v. Yankees||8-9||Loss||-100||13 h 18 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Colorado Rockies have Jon Gray on the mound here, and he's a guy I'm very high on. Gray might struggle at home this year, but he is a bet on guy for me on the road. Gray has tremendous stuff, and this Yankees offense ranks 25th in the majors in wOBA so far this year.
C.C. Sabathia has been good this year, but he has given up a home run on 3% of his fly balls this year. Last year it was 16.6%. He's going to give up more home runs in the long term and against this Rockies lineup in the daytime I won't be surprised if it is here.
I think Gray is better than Sabathia, and the Rockies offense has been more consistent than the Yankees. The Yankees clearly have the better bullpen, but middle relief is a bit of an issue for the Yankees if Sabathia were to get hit around early.
Too big of a price here. Take Colorado.
|06-21-16||Reds v. Rangers OVER 10||8-2||Push||0||17 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Anthony Desclafani hasn't been sharp in his first couple outings coming off the disabled list. The Reds aren't going to force him any further than they have to either, and this Reds bullpen is just awful. The more this Reds bullpen is in the game the better for this over bet. Texas can put runs on the board in a hurry at home.
Colby Lewis nearly threw a no hitter last game, and I think he comes back down to earth here. His ERA at home in his career is about 5. While Lewis has an ERA of only 2.81 this year, that is definitely going to change. Lewis is notoriously bad at home when the weather gets warm, and it will be 91 degrees for this one. Lewis has a 2.81 ERA but all advanced metrics have his expected ERA at norht of 4. Some are even higher than 4.5. Regression is coming.
The over is 44-16-3 in Lewis' last 63 home starts. Take the over.
|06-19-16||Rangers v. Cardinals OVER 8.5||5-4||Win||100||13 h 31 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Andy Fletcher is one of the best over umpires in the business. Fletcher has consistently had one of the lowest strikes called percentages in the past three seasons.
Mike Leake isn't missing bats right now, and his peripheral statistics are almost all worse this year than they were last season. The Rangers offense is getting healthy now.
Martin Perez is definitely due for some regression. Advanced metrics suggest his ERA should be closer to 5. The Cardinals lineup is a tough one to navigate through.
Neither of these bullpens are great, and the weather is very favorable here. The forecast calls for 91 degrees and wind of about 10 mph out to center. Take the over.
|06-19-16||Rockies v. Marlins OVER 8||0-3||Loss||-115||11 h 26 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Tom Koehler isn't a very good pitcher. He is even worse in day starts. In his career, Koehler has a 3.86 night ERA and a 4.66 day ERA. The Marlins starter goes up against a pretty good Rockies lineup in this one.
Tyler Anderson may have decent stuff, but I don't expect things to come easy for him right away. Anderson faced a weak Padres lineup in his first big league start. Miami has a good lineup against lefties and they should get some runs here.
Scott Barry is a good umpire to have for over bettors as well. A total of only 8 makes the over the value side here. Take the over.
|06-18-16||White Sox v. Indians UNDER 9||2-13||Loss||-110||18 h 12 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. While he has gone on an over run of late this year, his strikes called have still been very high. Every single year for the last few seasons, he has ranked in the top 10 umpires in the league in strikes called. He also ranks very high on the list in strikeouts/walk ratio. Bottom line: if you have an umpire who is calling far more strikes than the league average and is punching people out- that's a good under umpire.
There is a real concern in this game, and it is James Shields. To say he has been awful in his last 3 starts is putting it mildly. Still, he gets the best umpire possible here, and Cleveland is a pitcher-friendly park.
The oddsmakers know Miller is an under umpire, and this total of 9 is the highest total on a Bill Miller umpired game all season. It is rare to see 9's in Cleveland in general, and with Bill Miller as the umpire and Danny Salazar on the mound for the Indians, I have to take this bet on principle.
Salazar is tremendous, and this White Sox lineup isn't very good. Salazar has swing and miss stuff and he'll get the corners with this umpire as well.
The under is 27-11-2 in the last 40 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
|06-17-16||Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||2-3||Win||100||20 h 27 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Julio Urias has a very bright future ahead of him. In his last two starts, he has begun to show just how good he could be for the Dodgers. He gets to pitch in the pitcher-friendly Dodger stadium again here, and Milwaukee's offense is just mediocre on the road.
Zach Davies has been very good in recent outings. Davies has been controlling all of his pitches better, and he does against a Dodgers lineup that has really struggled to score runs at home this year.
Everitt is the umpire here, and he is a solid under umpire. The under is 27-9 in the Dodgers last 36 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. Take the under.
|06-17-16||Tigers -111 v. Royals||3-10||Loss||-111||18 h 36 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Detroit Tigers should be a bigger favorite here. Yordano Ventura isn't even close to the pitcher he was last year. His swinging strike rate is at only 7.5% on the year compared to 10.4% last year. He isn't missing bats, and this Tigers lineup is very good.
Detroit's Michael Fulmer hasn't allowed a run in his last 28 and 1/3 innings pitched. Truly amazing. Fulmer is a rookie with great stuff, and the fact that Kansas City hasn't seen him yet is clearly a positive.
Though the Royals have been winning games of late, there's no doubt that being without Gordon and Moustakas hurt this team.
Detroit is 7-0 in Fulmer's last 7 starts. They are 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. Take Detroit here.
|06-17-16||Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5||8-4||Win||100||17 h 20 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Boston Red Sox scored one run last night. Boston has the best offense in baseball, and it's very unlikely they will be quieted two nights in a row. Iwakuma's stuff isn't quite as good as it was in the past. He has struggled in the past against the Red Sox, and I don't see that changing here.
Roenis Elias starts for the Red Sox here. He was a subpar pitcher for the Mariners, and now he pitches in a much worse park for pitchers and has to face his former team. This Seattle lineup has been much better in recent weeks, and they should put up plenty here.
Take the over.
|06-17-16||White Sox v. Indians UNDER 8||Top||2-3||Win||100||17 h 50 m||Show|
*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* The Chicago White Sox send Jose Quintana to the mound. To say he gets almost no run support in general is an understatement. Quintana has been the hard luck loser all kinds of times in the past couple years with this White Sox team.
Quintana has been amazing when pitching in Cleveland in his career. He has a brilliant 0.93 ERA in 38 and 2/3 innings in Cleveland. In 15 IP last year in Cleveland, he didn't allow a single earned run. Quintana has been very consistent, and this is a good park for pitchers on the whole.
Trevor Bauer has always had the stuff to be a good big league starter, but he hasn't put it together until recently. Bauer's last few starts have been his best run of consistency in a very long time. Bauer has pitched well against Chicago in the last two years. Bauer faces a White Sox lineup that is subpar, especially away from home. I think he can continue his recent solid pitching.
The wind is expected to be blowing in at 10-15 mph for this game which is a nice bonus.
The under is 8-0 in Quintana's last 8 starts when the White Sox opponent allows 5 runs or more in their last game. The under is 9-0 in his last 9 following a quality start. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 during game one of a series. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. Cleveland. A 43-0 angle. Take the under big! TOP Total of the Week
|06-17-16||Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9||13-3||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays bats are clearly warming up of late. They blasted Aaron Nola last night, and Toronto is really getting much better production out of the bottom of the order.
Mike Wright isn't a very good pitcher, and he has a miserable 7.13 ERA in his career against Toronto. I don't have any confidence in him being able to cool them off in this one.
Aaron Sanchez has pitched well this year, but this is a difficult matchup for him. Baltimore's lineup is really good against right handed pitching.
It should be noted as well that both Wright and Sanchez just pitched against their opponent last weekend, and those quick turnarounds generally benefit the hitters more than the pitchers.
The over is 6-0-1 in the Blue Jays last 7 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in Wright's last 5 Friday starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts when Baltimore's opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The over is 7-0 in Wright's last 7 starts when the Orioles opponent scored 5 runs or more in their last game. A 22-0 angle. Take the over.
|06-16-16||Orioles v. Red Sox -129||5-1||Loss||-129||18 h 21 m||Show|
*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have had the best offense in baseball so far this year. Boston is a very tough team to ask Tyler Wilson to quiet down.
Baltimore has a much better team than anyone (including myself) expected, but the clear weakness of their team is their starting rotation. Tyler Wilson is a guy who wouldn't be in very many big league rotations. Boston is an offense that punishes mistakes right now, and Wilson makes way too many mistakes. Wilson is averaging only 4.57 strikeouts per nine innings, so he isn't missing nearly enough bats.
Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't been good this year, but the Orioles offense is much better against right handed pitchers than lefties. Rodriguez still has a high upside, and I expect him to get it figured out sooner or later.
The Red Sox have the better offense, the better starter, and the better bullpen. The Red Sox are 8-2 in Rodriguez's last 10 home starts. Take Boston.