Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-01-11 | Cleveland Indians v. Toronto Blue Jays -117 | 13-9 | Loss | -117 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Toronto Blue Jays are a pretty good team. Jose Bautista is proving last year was no fluke, and he is the best hitter in baseball right now. Kyle Drabek hasn't been terribly consistent, but he has definitely shown what he is capable of doing. Josh Tomlin has been great this year for Cleveland, but his ERA is about 1.5 runs per game worse on the road in his short career. The Tribe are slowly coming back to earth, and I think they are being lined a little too generously by the books right now. The home team is 35-16 in Tim McClelland's last 51 games behind the plate. The Jays are 4-1 in Drabek's last 5 home starts. Take Toronto.
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06-01-11 | Los Angeles Angels v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 | 0-2 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Felipe Paulino will make his first start of the year for the Royals. Tyler Chatwood will start for the Angels. Neither pitcher has proven to be able to put up strong starts on a consistent basis in their past. Chatwood struggles with his control and Paulino gives up the big inning too often. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph in this one. Kansas City is red hot offensively right now. The Royals have scored 6,7, and 7 runs in their last three games. Both pitchers are capable of giving up a lot of runs, and I think the value is on the over.
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06-01-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP PLAY DOMINATOR* The Seattle Mariners are two games above .500 despite having one of the weakest lineups in baseball. Safeco Field is a pitcher's dream, and the two pitchers going on Wednesday afternoon are both great young pitchers. Michael Pineda has been amazing of late, and he is at his best at home. Brian Matusz is making his first start of the year in the majors, but he has been tremendous in his rehab starts. In three rehab starts he had an ERA of 1.20. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is a huge 'under' umpire. The under is an amazing 60-26-6 in his last 92 games behind the plate. Take the under big in this one!
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06-01-11 | Chicago White Sox v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The White Sox have heated up in a big way of late. They held off Boston last night in a high-scoring affair, and I think we are in for another high scoring game on Wednesday. Tim Wakefield has a 4.92 career ERA against the White Sox. The Red Sox offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and they are a threat to score six or more runs every time out. Tim Tschida is the umpire in this one, which is a big boost for 'over' bettors. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 behind home plate. It is also 4-1 in last 5 behind the dish when Wakefield is starting, which shows he can be tough on the knuckle ball pitcher. Take the over.
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05-31-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Erik Bedard was getting hit around in his first few starts of the season, but he has been terrific of late. Bedard has allowed just 4 runs in his last five starts. Seattle has been winning with solid defense and very good pitching. The Orioles can't hit left-handed pitching well at all. Baltimore averages just 3.33 runs per nine innings against lefties. Jeremy Guthrie is a solid pitcher and this Seattle offense is nothing special. The under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Take the under.
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05-31-11 | Cleveland Indians v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Cleveland Indians have had the best record in baseball most of this year, but this team isn't THAT good. The Indians are a solid story, but they have been sliding of late. I think this is a good chance to play against them. Mitch Talbot has never proven to be a quality starting pitcher. Brandon Morrow has been lights out at home over the years (an ERA of under 3). The Blue Jays are 20-6 in Morrow's last 26 home starts. Toronto has a red hot lineup and the pitching edge. I like the Blue Jays -1.5 here.
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05-31-11 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The San Francisco Giants pounded out seven runs yesterday, but with this weak lineup they currently have, I doubt they can do that two days in a row. Chris Carpenter has been nearly unbeatable at home over the last few years. The Cardinals are 50-18 in Carpenter's last 68 home starts. Ryan Vogelsong has been good of late, but I don't think he can keep up his performance. The Cardinals offense is very good, and with Holliday and Berkman back in the lineup I expect them to put up several runs. Take the Cardinals -1.5.
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05-31-11 | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 v. Washington Nationals | 2-10 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH* Cliff Lee started the year a bit slowly, but he seems to be rounding into form of late. Washington hits .200 against left-handers and Lee is much better than the average left-handed pitcher. Jason Marquis doesn't have a good history against the Phillies. In fact, he has a 5.61 ERA in his career against Philadelphia. The Phillies offense has been great since Chase Utley came back at the beginning of last week. I think this one is a mismatch, with the Phillies having a huge edge in both pitching and hitting. Phillies -1.5.
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05-30-11 | Florida Marlins v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 4-15 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Best Bet* Both Joe Saunders and Chris Volstad are fly ball pitchers and that isn't a good thing for them at Chase Field with the roof open. Chase Field is the best hitters park in the majors when the roof is open. The roof is expected to be open Monday night. The Diamondbacks are playing very good baseball right now, and they have several people who can hit the ball out of the ballpark. The Marlins are a scrappy bunch who seem to manufacture runs and come up with clutch hits. I think both pitchers will struggle here. Take the over.
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05-30-11 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The San Francisco Giants are the defending World Series Champions, but I think they are worthy of being faded right now. Without Buster Posey in the middle of the lineup, the lineup is much weaker. Pablo Sandoval is also out of the lineup. Madison Bumgarner has improved some of late, but he is still walking too many batters. Kyle McClellan continues to fly under the radar for St. Louis. McClellan has 2.7 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in his last three starts. The Cardinals have the best batting average in the majors. I don't think the Giants can keep up. Take the Cardinals -1.5.
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05-30-11 | Los Angeles Angels v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8 | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Kansas City Royals are one of the better hitting teams in the league. The Royals have quite a few solid professional hitters who make it tough on the opposing pitcher. Ervin Santana has a career road ERA of 4.97. Luke Hochevar has been terrible in the past against Los Angeles. He has an ERA of 8.27 against them. The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at nearly 25 miles per hour in this one. With a total set so low, I really like the value on the over in this game!
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05-30-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Seattle Mariners -110 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Seattle Mariners have really surprised me with how well they have played thus far in 2011. I still believe this team will suffer a long slide at some point this year, but they are playing well right now. Baltimore just got swept by the Oakland Athletics, and the Orioles are dinged up right now. They are without Derrek Lee, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones is questionable in this one as well. Doug Fister has an impressive 3.18 ERA this year. Jake Arrieta has been getting hit around quite a bit of late. Getting the Mariners at nearly even money seems like a good value to me. Take Seattle.
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05-30-11 | Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins are playing terrible baseball right now. The bullpen is a huge weakness and the offense is still pretty bad. Jim Thome is questionable for this game, and Brad Penny has solid career numbers against these Twins hitters. Nick Blackburn has been pitching well, but the Tigers have had his number over the years. Blackburn has an ERA of 7.5 in Detroit in his career. Miguel Cabrera is 11 for 24 off Blackburn. The Tigers have the better lineup and I think they have the pitching advantage as well. I like the value on the runline here. Take Detroit -1.5.
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05-29-11 | Baltimore Orioles +106 v. Oakland A's | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Oakland Athletics have a very weak offense. In fact, Oakland are 25th in the majors averaging 3.60 runs per game. Oakland typically relies on its great starting pitching to win the game for them. Guillermo Moscoso will make the second start of his career on Sunday against Baltimore. He threw six scoreless innings against the Angels in his first start. I don't believe Moscoso deserves to be favored over the extremely-talented Zach Britton from Baltimore. Moscoso has had an ERA of over 4 in AAA, so I don't see him dominating in the long run in the majors. Britton is one of the best young prospects in the game. The Orioles are 6-0 in Britton's last 6 starts against teams with a losing record. Take the Orioles moneyline.
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05-29-11 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Colorado Rockies OVER 8.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Kyle Lohse has been pitching very well this year, but he typically isn't nearly as strong on the road. Coors Field is far from a pitchers ballpark, and Lohse has struggled mightily here in the past. Lohse is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA in his three starts at Coors Field. Chacin is on the hill for Colorado and he is solid, but St. Louis has the best batting average in the majors. Chacin has been much better on the road than at home in his short career, and I expect St. Louis to be able to put some runs on the board. The wind is expected to be blowing out as well. Take the over.
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05-29-11 | Kansas City Royals v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH* The Kansas City Royals are now just 6-15 on the road this year. Daniel Duffy will start Sunday for the Royals. Duffy is a solid prospect and he should be a good one, but this is a very tough spot for him. Texas absolutely crushed left-handed pitching, and the Rangers are healthy again. Alexi Ogando has been one of the best stories in all of baseball. Ogando has an ERA of 1.81 in nearly 60 innings this year. The Royals are 14-41 in their last 55 road games. The Royals are 1-8 in their last 9 at Texas. Take Texas -1.5.
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05-29-11 | San Francisco Giants v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Totals TKO* Yovani Gallardo is a streaky pitcher, but when he is pitching well, he can be extremely dominant. In his last four starts he has allowed a total of five earned runs. The Giants lineup is very weak right now without Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval. I expect Gallardo to pitch very well. At the same time, Matt Cain is a very solid pitcher. I don't think Milwaukee will be able to put up too many since Cain has several overpowering pitches. The under is 20-9-1 in the Giants last 30. The under is 5-0 in Gallardo's last 5 starts against the Giants. Take the under.
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05-29-11 | San Diego Padres v. Washington Nationals UNDER 8 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* This play is more about the two offenses than the pitching matchup. Maya struggled much of last year, but the Padres haven't scored more than three runs in their last 12 games. The Nationals aren't much better offensively. In fact, these are the 29th and 30th ranked offenses in baseball. Dustin Mosely has been underrated this year and as long as he keeps the ball down in the zone I expect him to have success against the Nationals. The under is 5-0 in San Diego's last 5. The under is 4-1 in Washington's last 5 home games. Take the under.
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05-28-11 | Kansas City Royals v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Kansas City Royals are a pretty good offensive team, especially against left-handed pitchers. Kansas City hits .268 against lefties and they score 5.14 runs per game against them. Matt Harrison has been pretty good this year for Texas, but he doesn't have a good track record at home, where the long ball has been a problem for him. Sean O'Sullivan has an ERA above nine in his last three starts, and the Rangers lineup is extremely tough now that they are healthy again. I expect both starters to get hit pretty hard in this one. Take the over.
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05-28-11 | Philadelphia Phillies v. New York Mets OVER 7 | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Cole Hamels is a terrific pitcher, but he hasn't been very good against the Mets in his career. He is just 2-9 with a 4.35 ERA against New York in his career. Mike Pelfrey has an ERA above 5 this year, and while he has been solid at home, he is very inconsistent and the Phillies offense is improving. Scott Barry is the umpire in this one, and the over is 8-1-1 in his last 10 games behind the plate. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph in this one. I think the total is set too low here. Take the over.
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05-28-11 | Los Angeles Angels v. Minnesota Twins OVER 7 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Jered Weaver has been great this year, but his production hasn't been quite as good the last few games. The Twins are starting to get healthy offensively, and they have been putting up some runs of late. At the same time, the Minnesota bullpen has proven to be among the worst in all of baseball this year. Jim Reynolds is a terrific 'over' umpire. The over is 108-82 in his last 190 games behind the plate, so that is a long-term trend worth backing. I like the value on the over in this matchup.
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05-28-11 | St. Louis Cardinals -124 v. Colorado Rockies | 4-15 | Loss | -124 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Juan Nicasio makes his major league debut in this one for the Rockies. Nicasio has a great fastball and terrific command, but he hasn't faced a lineup even close to as good as the Cardinals in the past. In fact, he has only pitched 56 innings above the Class A level in the minor leagues. The Cardinals lead the league in batting average as a team, and I expect them to make it tough on him on Saturday. Jaime Garcia is terrific, as evidenced by his 5-0 record with a 1.93 ERA. The Rockies struggle against lefties as well. I like the Cardinals in this one.
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05-27-11 | St. Louis Cardinals +145 v. Colorado Rockies | 10-3 | Win | 145 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day* Ubaldo Jimenez has not been the same pitcher he was in 2010. While he has shown signs of improvement in his last couple starts, the Cardinals have the best batting average of any team in the majors. I think St. Louis will be a real test for Jimenez. Jake Westbrook started the season poorly, but he has been keeping the ball down in the zone of late very well. Five of his last six starts have been quality starts. It seems strange to see the Rockies laying so much money when they are 1-10 in Jimenez's last 11 starts. Take the underdog in this one. Cardinals moneyline.
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05-27-11 | San Francisco Giants v. Milwaukee Brewers -109 | 5-4 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* This is certainly not a fade of Tim Lincecum, rather it is a fade of the Giants poor offense. This is the type of game that could easily finish 1-0 or 2-1 and I think it will be in the Brewers favor. Shawn Marcum has flown under the radar this year, but he has been terrific. He has an ERA of 2.37 on the year. The Brewers are 20-6 in their last 26 home games overall. The Giants are missing Posey, Fontenot, Sandoval, and others from an offense that was already week. The Brewers have a huge advantage offensively, and I think they'll take this game. Brewers moneyline is the play.
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05-27-11 | Cleveland Indians v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* David Price has owned the Cleveland Indians in the past. In fact, Price has an ERA of just 2.59 in four starts against Cleveland. Tampa Bay has struggled to hit the ball consistently, especially at home. Joel Tomlin is much better than the books give him credit for. How good has Tomlin been? He has a quality start in every single start this year. I expect this to be a pitcher's duel in Tampa Bay tonight. This is a good case of two solid pitchers with a good defense behind them. Take the under in this one.
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05-27-11 | Philadelphia Phillies -130 v. New York Mets | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Value Play* The Philadelphia Phillies are the best team in the National League right now. The New York Mets are a team that doesn't exactly know their identity. David Wright and Ike Davis are both out of the lineup. Chris Capuano is on the hill for New York, and I just don't think he has the stuff to shutdown this impressive Phillies lineup. Roy Oswalt may not be completely healthy, but he still gives the Phillies a decided pitching edge here. I think the Phillies have the edge everywhere in this game. The Phillies are 35-16 in their last 51 road games. Take the Phillies moneyline.
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05-27-11 | Boston Red Sox v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* The Boston Red Sox have scored 14 runs in back-to-back games. Normally, I might say it is time for the team to cool off, but this Boston offense has been underachieving all year and now they are busting out in a big way. Rick Porcello has been very good of late, but he hasn't faced competition that is even close to the level of the Red Sox lineup. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez are red hot right now, which is key for Boston. Detroit has a solid lineup as well, and Tim Wakefield is unlikely to shut them down. The wind is expected to be blowing out in this one. I like the over.
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05-26-11 | Florida Marlins +104 v. San Francisco Giants | 1-0 | Win | 104 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Florida Marlins are the underdog in this game, and I think that gives us a ton of value. Anibal Sanchez is slated to pitch in this one and Sanchez is one of the better pitchers in the National League. Last year he pitched a complete game shutout in San Francisco. Buster Posey was injured in last night's game and he is unlikely to play in this series finale. Ryan Vogelsong has been great of late for the Giants, but I just don't think he has the stuff that Sanchez has. The Marlins have the better offense and the better pitcher in this one. Take the Marlins.
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05-26-11 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels +101 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Joel Pineiro tends to be underrated a bit by the books. Brett Anderson is a very good pitcher, but the Angels have hit him well in the past. These two pitchers squared off earlier this year and Pineiro pitched better, but the Athletics won in extra innings. I expect the Angels to win this one at home as they face an Oakland team that is really on the skids right now. The Angels hit lefties well, and Oakland's lineup is poor. The Angels are 10-2 in Pineiro's last 12 home starts. Take the Angels.
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05-25-11 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Houston Astros OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Ted Lilly has been pretty solid this year, but there are some alarming stats in this one for him. His road ERA in his career is 4.51. Jeff Nelson is the umpire in this one, and Lilly hasn't fared well at all with Nelson behind the dish. Lilly has a 7.71 ERA in 6 starts with him behind the plate. Aneury Rodriguez is a young pitcher for the Astros who simply doesn't get deep into games, which is a bad thing for the team when the Astros have what is probably the worst bullpen in baseball. I think we'll see a lot of both bullpens and I like the over here.
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05-25-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Minnesota Twins +100 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins are finally starting to get healthy, and I think they will be a decent play in the coming weeks because the books are so low on them right now. The Seattle Mariners have played decent baseball this year, but I'm not impressed with their lineup at all. I think the Mariners are bound to finish with one of the worst records in baseball. Erik Bedard has been much better of late, but the Twins key hitters (Morneau, Cuddyer, Span, and Thome) all have had success against Bedard. Brian Duensing has been in bad form of late, but don't forget he has a career ERA of under 3 at home. I'll take the Twins at even money in this one.
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05-25-11 | Washington Nationals v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | 4-6 | Win | 132 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* Jason Marquis is a very streaky pitcher. He had a solid start to the year, but he has begun to scuffle of late. The Brewers have an offense that is fully capable of putting up a ton of runs. Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Hart, McGhee, etc is a tough lineup to face. Zack Grienke has been a little rusty so far this year, but he has tremendous stuff and going against Washington is liable to help him find his way. The Nationals lineup is bad to start with and they are without both Zimmerman and LaRoche right now. I think the Brewers win this one comfortably. Take Milwaukee -1.5.
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05-24-11 | Florida Marlins v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6.5 | 5-1 | Win | 101 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* I continue to believe Matt Cain is a better pitcher than the oddsmakers give him credit for. In Cain's career he has a 2.98 ERA against the Florida Marlins. Ricky Nolasco is one of those rare pitchers that is actually better on the road than at home. Nolasco has an impressive 1.91 ERA against the Giants in 28 innings in his career. Neither of these teams have a particularly strong offense, and this is a big ballpark that is tough to score runs in. The under is 7-1 in the Giants last 8 home games. I look for a pitcher's duel here. Take the under.
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05-24-11 | Washington Nationals v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8 | 6-7 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Livan Hernandez has been underrated constantly for the last two years by oddsmakers. The under is 18-6-2 in his last 26 road starts overall. The Washington Nationals offense is absolutely terrible, especially against lefties. The Nationals are hitting a miserable .197 as a team against lefties. Chris Narveson is having a breakout year for the Brewers and the under is 7-2 in his last 9 starts. Lance Barksdale is behind the plate here and he is calling 65.5% of pitches a strike this year, which is a great sign for under bettors. I like the under in this one.
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05-24-11 | Chicago White Sox v. Texas Rangers OVER 8.5 | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Ballpark in Arlington is notorious for a wind tunnel that pushes the ball out to center and left field in certain weather conditiions. It looks as if tomorrow the weather will provide that wind tunnel effect. Jake Peavy was great in his last start, but the Rangers offense is one of the best in the league when healthy and they are now healthy. Derek Holland starts for the Rangers and he has a career ERA over 5.5 at home. Tim McClelland may be the best 'over' umpire in the business right now because of his tiny strike zone. Take the over in this one!
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05-24-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 | 4-12 | Win | 133 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird* Joe Saunders is on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks and it is a road game. The Diamondbacks are 0-13 in Saunders' last 13 road starts overall. What about the flip side? Jorge De La Rosa is terrific at home and the Rockies are 22-4 in his last 26 home starts. The Diamondbacks have been hot of late, which just gives us a better number here. In Saunders' only start at Coors Field he didn't make it out of the third inning. I think the Rockies win this game by a comfortable margin. Take the Rockies -1.5.
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05-23-11 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 121 | 21 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Jered Weaver hasn't looked quite as dominating in his last three starts, but I think this is a good chance for him to get back into his dominating form. The Oakland Athletics have one of the weaker lineups in baseball, and Weaver pitched a complete game shutout against them earlier this year. Josh Outman is getting a spot start here for the Athletics, and I just don't think he is going to prove to be a quality starter. He has an ERA of 4.7 in AAA so far this year, and he has averaged almost one walk per inning. The Angels have the better lineup and they have a huge pitching advantage here. The Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 home games against Oakland. Take the Angels -1.5.
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05-23-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Minnesota Twins -106 | 8-7 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error* The Minnesota Twins are certainly not the team they were a couple years ago, but at this point I think the oddsmakers have gotten too low on them. Minnesota will get back Jim Thome and Jason Repko on Monday, and Delmon Young came back last week. This is a lineup that is slowly getting healthy once again. Seattle is far from a strong team, especially on the road. Jason Vargas has been great in his last three starts, but I think he's bound to have some regression soon. The Mariners are just 4-13 in Vargas' last 17 starts overall. Carl Pavano has pitched very well in his last two starts. Minnesota is 21-7 at home against the Mariners in their last 28 meetings. Take the Twins in this one!
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05-23-11 | Chicago White Sox v. Texas Rangers OVER 8.5 | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago White Sox started the year out terribly on offense, but the lineup has finally got going of late. Chicago has scored 8 runs or more in three of their last four games. The Texas Rangers are expected to get Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz both back in the lineup on Monday, and that should make a huge difference for them. The Rangers have crushed lefties all year and I'll think they'll get to Danks in this one. The wind tunnel at Arlington should be pushing the ball out in this game. I think this is a good value on the over. Take over 8.5 here.
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05-23-11 | Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees OVER 9 | 7-3 | Win | 109 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total TKO* The New York Yankees offense appears to finally be waking up. The Yankees have scored 40 runs in their last six games. Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, and Derek Jeter have all been swinging a hot bat of late. Bartolo Colon has been pretty good this year, but he is certainly capable of giving up the long ball. Toronto's offense, anchored by Jose Bautista, is no slouch. Carlos Villaneuva is pitching for the Blue Jays and he hasn't started a game since 2009. I don't expect him to last long here. I think this will be a high scoring affair. Take the over.
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05-23-11 | Boston Red Sox v. Cleveland Indians +112 | 2-3 | Win | 112 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* The Cleveland Indians are 18-4 at home this year, but they continue to get a lack of respect from the oddsmakers. Justin Masterson allowed just one run in his two appearances against the Red Sox last year, and he has a terrific 2.52 ERA so far this year. Clay Buchholz has been great of late too, but he threw 127 pitches in his last start and he has an ERA of slightly above 8 against the Indians in his career. The Red Sox played late last night in Boston while the Indians should be rested up nicely. I like the situational play here and the Indians at plus money at home is too good to pass up. Take Cleveland.
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05-22-11 | Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Gio Gonzalez and Johnathan Sanchez are two very talented left-handed starters. The Giants and Athletics both have a very weak offense. Gonzalez has the ability to shut down just about any team he faces, and the Giants just aren't good offensively right now. Sanchez has looked much better in his last couple starts, and I think he can tame the A's offense. The under is 9-3-1 in Gonzalez's last 13 road starts. The under is 7-0 in the Giants last 7 home games. I like the under in this one.
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05-22-11 | Colorado: U Jimenez v. Milwaukee: R Wolf OVER 7.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -121 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB BEST Bet* Ubaldo Jimenez has not looked like himself this year. He was shaky in his last start against the Giants, and the Brewers have a much stronger lineup. I expect Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Hart, etc. to get to Ubaldo in this one. Randy Wolf pitched well earlier this year, but his form has been poor of late. He has an 8.56 ERA in his last three starts overall. The Rockies lineup hasn't been hitting that well of late, but I think they'll burst out of their slump against a soft-throwing lefty like Wolf. Take the over big here.
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05-22-11 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 | 3-8 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Under the Radar Total* Hiroki Kuroda is a very underrated pitcher at this stage in his career. Kuroda has an ERA of just 2.80 on the year, but the books continue to think of him as a mediocre starter based on their lines. Edwin Jackson is a bit inconsistent, but I think he'll have the upper hand against a short-handed Los Angeles Dodgers offense. The Dodgers gave up on Jackson a few years ago, and I think he'll be motivated to shut them down here. The under is 13-6 in the Dodgers last 19 games overall. Take the under.
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05-22-11 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8 | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value Play* Jaime Garcia is a terrific left-handed pitcher, but the Royals have a made a living off hitting lefties well this year. The Royals were shutout yesterday and I think they'll bounce back on Sunday. Sean O'Sullivan pitches for Kansas City, and he has been getting hit hard of late. The Cardinals won't have Berkman, but Pujols and Holliday in the middle of the order is very tough. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 mph during this one. Angel Campos is the umpire here, and he has one of the smallest strike zones in the majors. Take the over.
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05-21-11 | Minnesota Twins v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Twins offense has started to put it together as they slowly get healthy. Delmon Young is back in the lineup and Justin Morneau is hitting the ball well right now. Micah Owings is starting for Arizona, and I just don't think he is a good fit here. Owings gives up a lot of fly balls and Chase Field is a hitter's paradise when the roof is open (as I expect it will be Saturday). Scott Baker has been solid on the road this year, but this Arizona team can hit the ball well, and I think both teams will put up several runs Saturday. Take the over.
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05-21-11 | Seattle Mariners v. San Diego Padres OVER 6 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* I rarely play an 'over' with Seattle or San Diego, but I feel this number is just set too low. Clayton Richard hasn't been in good form at all of late. Richard has an ERA of 7.17 in his last three starts. Pineda is very good, but he hasn't been as good on the road as he has been at home. The over is 8-3 in Richard's last 11 starts. The Padres offense has shown some signs of life in the last couple weeks, and the Mariners hit left-handers much better than right-handers. I like the value on the over in this one.
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05-21-11 | Detroit Tigers -121 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 2-6 | Loss | -121 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* I simply don't believe the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to be near .500 for very long this year. They have fought hard so far this year, but Pittsburgh has a lot of holes in their lineup. The Tigers are a solid team with Martinez, Cabrera, and Austin Jackson who is heating up nicely of late. Max Scherzer has been one of the best starters in the majors so far this year and I think he can quiet this Pittsburgh offense. The Tigers are 7-2 in Scherzer's last 9 starts. Take Detroit here.
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05-21-11 | Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Homer Bailey has looked good in his starts so far this year. He had an ERA under one in his AAA rehab starts, and he has an ERA under 2 in his starts in the majors. Bailey is throwing strikes much more frequently than he has in the past. Everyone keeps waiting for Josh Tomlin to have a bad game, but he just continues to hit his spot and nibble at the corners. Tomlin has a 2.56 ERA for the year. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this game, and he is my single favorite 'under' umpire in the majors. Miller has a huge strike zone and I think both of these pitchers will benefit. Take the under here.
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05-21-11 | Washington Nationals +142 v. Baltimore Orioles | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Washington Nationals had a huge offensive night in Baltimore last night. I don't expect them to repeat that performance, but I do think the oddsmakers are too low on the Nationals in this one. The Nationals are 7-2 in John Lannan's last 9 road starts. The Baltimore Orioles don't hit lefties well at all. In fact, the Orioles average just 2.92 runs against lefties. Jeremy Guthrie is a decent pitcher for Baltimore, but the Orioles are 1-6 in his last 7 starts. Brian Roberts and Derrek Lee are both out, and I don't think the Orioles should be laying this kind of price. Take the Nationals.
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05-21-11 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Chicago White Sox -1.5 | 2-9 | Win | 150 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The Chicago White Sox were beaten in dramatic fashion last night. The Dodgers had some unlikely heroes in their come from behind win in Chicago. The White Sox have been the best Interleague team in baseball over the last few years, and I think they'll bounce back here. Chicago is 39-16 in their last 55 Interleague games. Mark Buerhle is on the hill and the Sox are 23-6 in his last 29 Interleague starts. Jon Garland isn't particular strong on the road, the Dodgers are 0-5 in his last 5 road starts. The Dodgers lineup is very short-handed now and I think the White Sox will win this one comfortable. White Sox -1.5 is the play.
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05-20-11 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 | 6-4 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Hidden GEM Total* Lance Barksdale is behind the dish here and he is a terrific 'under' umpire. He calls more than 64% of pitches a strike in the last year, which is much higher than the league average. Phillip Humber continues to be underrated and he should be able to work the corners against a poor Dodgers offense. Ted Lilly has fared well in the past with Barksdale and this White Sox team is hitting just .225 this year against lefties. The wind is blowing in from left field slightly here, so that should help as well. I like the under in this one.
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05-20-11 | New York Mets v. New York Yankees OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Yankees/Mets BEST Bet Winner* The Mets and Yankees will square off tonight in the Bronx. The Yankees offense burst out in a big way last night with 13 runs against Baltimore. New York has what may be the best lineup in all of baseball, and I think they'll finish the year near the top in runs scored. R.A. Dickey had a nice year in 2010, but he has regressed a lot this year. In two of his last three starts he has allowed six earned runs. Dickey has an ERA of 5.08 on the year. Garcia has been fairly good, but I don't think he'll pitch a shutout here against a Mets team with Beltran, Reyes, and Bay. The over is 5-1 in the Yankees last 6 interleague games. The over is 6-2 in Dickey's last 8 starts. This my BEST Bet play of the day. Take the over.
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05-20-11 | Washington Nationals v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 17-5 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Totals Terrorizer* Jason Marquis has been keeping the ball down this year and getting a lot of ground balls. Jake Arrieta has come along very nicely in his second year in the majors. Arrieta has a 4.03 ERA and Marquis a 3.54 ERA this year. I think both pitchers are underrated right now. The Orioles will miss Derrek Lee in this one, as he is the only Oriole with good career numbers against Marquis. The Nationals haven't scored a run in 21 innings! They'll likely score here, but I don't think they'll score much. Take the under.
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05-20-11 | Houston Astros v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Aneury Rodriguez is not the type of pitcher that can pitch deep into a game. The Houston Astros have the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Rodriguez has gone no more than five innings in each of his starts this year, which spells trouble for the Astros. The Blue Jays are hitting the ball really well right now. JoJo Reyes doesn't have shutdown stuff, and the Astros should be able to put up a few runs against Reyes. Jose Bautista is a one-man wrecking crew right now, and the rest of the lineup for Toronto isn't bad either. I like the over in this one.
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05-20-11 | Chicago Cubs v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 5-15 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* Doug Davis is on the hill for the Cubs in this one. Davis had an ERA above 7 last year. He was decent in his one start this year, but that was against the Giants. The Red Sox are starting to hit the ball better, and Davis walks far too many hitters. Jon Lester is nearly unbeatable at home, and I don't think the Cubs are playing good enough baseball to beat him tonight. The Red Sox are 42-13 in Lester's last 55 home starts. The Red Sox are also a ridiculously good 76-28 in their last 104 interleague games. I expect Boston to roll in this one. Boston -1.5 is the play.
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05-19-11 | Milwaukee Brewers -107 v. San Diego Padres | 0-1 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* Aaron Harang started the year brilliantly, but he has come back to earth of late. The Brewers have several guys (Hart, Weeks, Fielder, Braun, etc) who have hit Harang well in their career. Chris Narveson has had just one really bad outing this year, and I think he can tame the Padres weak offense. The Brewers have a much better lineup and they are at least even in the starting pitching matchup here. I like the value on the Brewers moneyline here!
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05-19-11 | Atlanta Braves -106 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 1-2 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Moneyline Bookie SMASHER* I was on the Braves last night, and Atlanta certainly should have won that game, but baserunning miscues and errors meant the Braves beat themseleves in extra innings. I'll take Atlanta again in this one. The Diamondbacks start Collmenter, who has been absolutely terrific, but he hasn't faced a strong offense yet. I think the Braves will get to him some. Jair Jurrjens is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball at this point. Jurrjens hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his starts this year. The Braves are 4-0 in his last four starts. I don't think the books are giving him enough respect. I like the Braves in this one!
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05-19-11 | Chicago Cubs v. Florida Marlins OVER 9 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* The Chicago Cubs have the second best team batting average in baseball. They have struggled to hit in clutch situations, but Chris Volstad doesn't have overpowering stuff. On the other hand, the Cubs defense is dreadful, which means the other team often gets easy runs. Casey Coleman is on the hill for the Cubs, and he has a 7.22 ERA this year. The over is 7-1 in the Cubs last 8 games. The over is 8-3 in Volstad's last 11 home games. I think both teams will get quite a few hits in this one, and I think 11 or 12 runs is fairly likely. Take the over.
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05-19-11 | Minnesota Twins v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Brian Runge is the home plate umpire in this one and you won't find many better 'under' umpires than than him. The under is 53-31 in his last 84 games behind the plate, and this year he has called nearly 65% of pitches a strike, which is the highest of any umpire in the majors. Nick Blackburn and Tyson Ross are both pitching extremely well of late, and neither team has a strong lineup at all right now. The under is 9-4 in Blackburn's last 13. The under is 5-1 in Ross' last 6 starts. The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. Take the under.
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05-19-11 | Houston Astros v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 8 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The St. Louis Cardinals beat the Houston Astros on Wednesday night, but it was a costly win. Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday were both injured in the win. Neither of them are expected to be in the lineup on Wednesday afternoon. Colby Rasmus will miss this one as well. The Cardinals offense will be severely short-handed. Houston's offense is one one of the worst in the majors, and Kyle McClellan has been very good at home. On a get away day in the afternoon I think this will be a pitcher's duel. Take the under.
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05-18-11 | Atlanta Braves -107 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Atlanta Braves are a better team than the Arizona Diamondbacks, and I believe they'll have a significant pitching advantage in this one as well. Julio Teheran has been dominating the minor leagues the last few years. In fact, he is ranked as one of the top five prospects in all of baseball by many publications. He has gone 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA in AAA this year. Joe Saunders isn't very good, and he is a fly ball pitcher in a ballpark that is not kind to fly ball pitchers at all with the roof open. The roof should be open tonight. Saunders has a WHIP of 2.3 this year with the roof open. I think the Braves will take it to Saunders, and Teheran will pitch well. Take Atlanta in this one!
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05-18-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Major MISMATCH* The Cincinnati Reds have won five straight and eight of their last nine overall. The Pittsburgh Pirates were briefly one game above .500, but they have since dropped six straight. In each of those losses they have been beaten two or more runs and failed to cover the +1.5 runline. The Reds have covered the -1.5 runline in seven of their last eight victories overall. Bronson Arroyo has a 3.42 ERA against the Pirates in his career. Charlie Morton has a 5.18 ERA against the Reds in his career. The Reds have the much better lineup as well. Pittsburgh is 4-18 in Morton's last 22 road starts. The Reds are 10-1 in their last 11 games against a right-handed starter. I like the Reds to win comfortably. Take Cincinnati -1.5.
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05-18-11 | Tampa Bay Rays -103 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Under the Radar Gem* The Tampa Bay Rays have been playing very good baseball of late. Toronto has won six straight as well. Something has to give in this matchup, and I'm going to go with the team who has the better pitcher. Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson is one of the best young pitchers in the league. In his last outing he threw a complete game shutout. He hasn't allowed more than four runs in any start this year. Jesse Litsch is a decent starter, but the Blue Jays are just 1-4 in his last 5 starts against Tampa Bay. Toronto crushes left-handed pitching, but they are only average against right-handers. I like Tampa Bay to win this one.
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05-17-11 | San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Chase Field becomes a hitter's paradise with the roof open. This proved to be very true last night as the baseball was carrying extremely well in a 8-4 San Diego win. The Padres bats are scorching hot right now, and I expect them to score a few runs again. The Diamondbacks are solid offensively and Tim Stauffer will likely have trouble with the conditions here. The over is 12-3-3 in the Padres last 18. The books haven't caught up with the Padres hot bats of late, and the open roof makes this one a solid value on the over.
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05-17-11 | New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Yankees have dropped six games in a row. The Tampa Bay Rays are in the lead in the AL East. Tampa Bay's offense is much improved with Evan Longoria in the middle of the order. BJ Upton is swinging a hot bat right now as well, which makes a big difference for the Rays. James Shields has been good this year, but his history against New York isn't good at all. In his career he has a 4.91 ERA against the Yankees. Ivan Nova is inconsistent and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Rays score several early against him. I think 8.5 is too low here. Take the over.
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05-17-11 | San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies OVER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Ubaldo Jimenez was one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball last year. He hasn't been the same pitcher so far in 2011. He has just one quality start this year and his ERA is 6.67. Jonathan Sanchez has been struggling mightily with his control this year, and I think that will hurt him quite a bit at Coors Field. I think the books are lining this game more like it was last year. These pitchers are both struggling now, and this is definitely a hitter's ballpark. The wind will be blowing out in this one. The over is 6-0 in Jimenez's last 6 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in Sanchez's last 4 starts in Colorado. Take the over.
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05-16-11 | Milwaukee Brewers -110 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers are short-handed offensively right now. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are solid in the middle of the order, but the rest of the lineup is quite weak. Jon Garland isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't dominant at his point in his career either. Shaun Marcum has been terrific this year and I think he is one of the most underrated starters in the majors. Marcum has a 1.14 ERA in five road starts this year. He also has an ERA of just 1.42 against the Dodgers in his career. The Brewers have Weeks, Fielder, Braun, McGhee, Hart, and others in a strong lineup. I like Milwaukee to win this one.
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05-16-11 | San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field becomes a massive hitters ballpark when the roof is open, and I would expect it to be open on Monday night. The San Diego Padres were terribly offensively until the last four games, when they have stunningly starting hitting the cover off the ball. San Diego has scored 13, 7, 9, and 8 runs in their last four games. Armando Galarraga has given up six home runs in just 18 innings at Chase Field this year. The ball should be flying out again Monday night. Clayton Richard is a solid pitcher at home, but he struggles on the road because he allows a lot of home runs. The over is 7-1-3 in the Padres last 11. I like the over in this one.
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05-16-11 | Texas Rangers v. Chicago White Sox -120 | 4-0 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Chicago White Sox underperformed badly to start out the season, but this is not a bad team. The Texas Rangers are without Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz right now. Colby Lewis hasn't been very good of late, and he has been terrible against the White Sox in the past. At US Cellular Field Lewis has an outrageous ERA of 11.15. Lewis has a WHIP of 2.22 in his starts at Chicago. Edwin Jackson is good at home and the White Sox are 4-1 in his last five home starts. I think we are still getting a good value on the White Sox because of their terrible start. Take Chicago.
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05-15-11 | Chicago White Sox v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Under the Radar Total* Trevor Cahill continues to fly under the radar despite being one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. People talk more about Gio Gonzalez and Brett Anderson, but Cahill is the real ace of this staff. Cahill has allowed more than one run in a game only once this year, and that was on the road. At home his ERA is 1.03. The under is 17-5-1 in Cahill's last 23 home starts. The White Sox offense will likely struggle with this pitcher who keeps the ball down in the zone. Mark Buerhle hasn't fared well against Oakland, but it has usually been to due to a lack of run support. The under is 7-1-1 in his last 9 starts against Oakland. I like the under in this one today.
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05-15-11 | New York Mets v. Houston Astros OVER 8.5 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Both of these have terrible bullpens, and I don't either of the starting pitchers will make it very deep into this game. Aneury Rodriguez has been pulled after about 80 pitches in both of his first two starts. Chris Capuano was solid in his first start against Houston, but I think the Astros will get to him in this start. Capuano simply doesn't have overpowering stuff at this point. I think both pitchers are capable of giving up big innings here, and the bullpens will contribute to the total. Take the over.
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05-15-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* The Tampa Bay Rays were held to four hits and no runs by Brad Bergesen on Saturday. With a healthy Evan Longoria in the middle of the lineup, the Rays don't have a bad offense. I think they'll bounce back against Jake Arrieta in this one. Andy Sonnanstine is pitching for the Rays, and he has never proven to be a very effective starter. The over is 4-0 in Sonnanstine's last 4 starts against Baltimore. Derryl Cousins is a nice 'over' umpire as well. The over is 9-3-2 in his last 14 games behind the dish. Expect a higher scoring affair here. Take the over.
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05-15-11 | Florida Marlins v. Washington Nationals -110 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Florida Marlins will be looking for the sweep in this one, but they'll have Javier Vazquez on the mound. Vazquez has been terrible this year. Vazquez has a WHIP of 1.87 this year and his ERA is 6.88. Jason Marquis has quietly been having a pretty good season for the Nationals. Marquis generally pitches quite well at home. The Nationals are 5-1 in Marquis' last 6 starts overall, and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. The Nationals will be fighting hard to avoid the sweep in this series. I think they'll win this one. Take Washington.
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05-15-11 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 6.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* It's Roy Halladay vs. Tim Hudson is this amazing pitching matchup. I will come right out and say I generally hate to play an 'under' on a total set at 6.5. In this case I believe it is a solid value. Roy Halladay has amazing numbers just about everywhere, and he is the best pitcher in the game, but his numbers against Atlanta are amazing. In 16 innings at Turner Field he hasn't allowed a run. In 35 and 2/3 against the Braves overall he has allowed a total of five earned runs. Tim Hudson is a better pitcher during the daytime, and he has been great at home. Shane Victorino and Jason Heyward are both expected to miss this game, which is big for this bet as well. Take the under.
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05-14-11 | Chicago White Sox +107 v. Oakland A's | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day* The Chicago White Sox have come alive over the last few games. This is a team that is far better than their current record shows, and they have a history of going on long winning streaks. I like Oakland's pitching staff, but this Oakland offense is not good at all. Gavin Floyd has handled them very well in the past. Matsui is 1 for 10, Ellis 1 for 12 and Suzuki is 0 for 8, so several of the A's main contributors don't hit Floyd well at all. Tyson Ross has been solid this year, but I think his tendency to walk batters will hurt in this one. I like the White Sox to keep it going with another win. White Sox ML is the play here.
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05-14-11 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star Runline ROUT* The San Diego Padres aren't a very good team at all this year, and while their offense has hit the ball well the last couple games, this isn't a good offense. Colorado has plenty of guys who can take it deep and Aaron Harang gives up a ton of home runs. Harang benefits in PetCo because it is a pitchers park, but that won't be the case at Coors Field. Chacin has been great at home, and I think the Rockies are a much better team than the Padres. The Rockies are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings with San Diego. Take Colorado -1.5.
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05-14-11 | Florida Marlins v. Washington Nationals UNDER 8 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Doug Eddings is one of the best 'under' umpires in baseball. Eddings has a very wide strike zone and he has been a solid umpire for several years. Anibal Sanchez has been pitching brilliantly of late, and he has dominated the Nationals in the past couple years. Livan Hernandez has been solid the past couple years because of his ability to keep the ball down in the zone. How about a couple big trends? The under is 27-12-2 in Sanchez's last 41 road starts. The under is 17-5-1 in Hernandez's last 23 home starts. Take the under here.
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05-13-11 | Chicago White Sox +108 v. Oakland A's | 4-3 | Win | 108 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* It was bound to happen at some point, and it seems the White Sox have finally started to play some better baseball. The White Sox have a solid lineup and some fairly talented pitchers, but things weren't clicking earlier this year. Chicago took two out of three games at Seattle and two out of three at Los Angeles. The White Sox are now up to 10-12 on the road this year. Phillip Humber has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. Humber has been outstanding and it has been against some high quality lineups. The Athletics do not have a good lineup. Humber has allowed just 2 homers in 39 innings this year and he has great control of his pitches. Brandon McCarthy is solid as well, but I give the White Sox the edge offensively. Take Chicago.
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05-13-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Hidden GEM* Jeremy Guthrie has typically been tremendous against Tampa Bay. In his start against the Rays last weekend he was terrible, but I don't think that will happen twice in a row. The under is 6-2 in Guthrie's last 8 starts against Tampa, including 4-0 in his last 4 at Tampa Bay. Jeremy Hellickson is a very good young pitcher, and he typically pitches much better at home. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. The under is 37-13-1 in the Rays last 51 home games. I think this one stays low scoring. Take the under.
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05-13-11 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees OVER 9.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees Total DOMINATION* Both offenses have been struggling of late, so we actually get a bit of a bargain on the over in this case. Clay Buchholz has been terrible against the Yankees in the past. In his career he has started six games against them and his ERA is 6.26. Bartolo Colon has an ERA of just over 4 against the Red Sox. Colon was shelled in his last start, and I wouldn't be surprised if that was the start of a slump for him. Both of these teams are stacked offensively. The trend has been strongly toward the over in recent meetings. The over is 18-7-2 in their last 27 meetings. Take the over.
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05-12-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Matt Cain and Daniel Hudson are both very good pitchers and neither of these offenses is particularly strong. Bill Miller is a great umpire to have behind the plate if you are looking for an under. The under is 57-26-6 in Miller's last 89 games behind home plate! The under is 10-2 in Hudson's last 12 starts as oddsmakers continue to underestimate him as a pitcher. The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. The under is 8-2-1 in Arizona's last 11. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4. I really like the under in this one.
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05-12-11 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* B.J. Upton has been hitting the ball well of late, but he will start serving a two-game suspension in this one. Grady Sizemore may well miss his second straight game with a minor knee injury. Justin Masterson has been one of the best pitchers in the majors this year. Masterson has been brilliant in day games in his career. In 40 games pitched during the day he has a 2.99 ERA. James Shields has an ERA of under one in his last three games, and he has also been terrific in day games in his career. The high humidity in Cleveland won't help the ball travel very much on Thursday afternoon. Take the under.
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05-11-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Terrorizer* Johnathan Sanchez has been struggling in a big way of late to find the strike zone, but I think he gets the perfect umpire here to help his cause. Phil Cuzzi has one of the biggest strike zones of any umpire, and he'll likely give Sanchez the corners. Galarraga is another pitcher who struggles with walks and he should benefit from having Cuzzi behind the plate. The under is 15-6-5 in Cuzzi's last 26 games behind the plate. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two. Take the under.
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05-11-11 | Chicago White Sox +101 v. Los Angeles Angels | 6-4 | Win | 101 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Value* Jake Peavy will make his season debut for the White Sox in this one. Peavy has been working extremely hard in rehab for a long time and he is extremely amped up for this one. Peavy has pitched in the playoffs before, but he said that this game means more than any other start has to him. Chatwood is a pretty good young pitcher, but he walks too many batters. The White Sox lineup is starting to put it together of late, and I think they'll make him pay for those walks. I like Peavy to pitch well here. Take the White Sox.
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05-11-11 | Tampa Bay Rays -119 v. Cleveland Indians | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* David Price is one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball. The Cleveland Indians have hit lefties well this year, but Price is much better than your average lefty. Price fared very well against the Indians last year, and the 2010 Indians couldn't hit left-handers well at all. I think Cleveland's offense will slowly start to show its weakness against lefties again this year. The Rays are 7-1 in Price's last 8 road starts. Carrasco has been injured and will start this one for the Indians. I think the Rays have a major pitching advantage. Take Tampa Bay.
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05-11-11 | Boston Red Sox v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox appear to be finally putting it together on offense. This team is simply too good to be struggling at the plate all year long. On the other hand, John Lackey has been bad this year, and he struggled mightily against Toronto last year as well. Litsch isn't an overpowering pitcher and Boston should be able to get to him. Lackey will likely give up some long balls against a Toronto team that has some power hitters. The over is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts against Toronto. Take the over.
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05-11-11 | San Diego Padres v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* John Hirschbeck is one of the best 'under' umpires in the business. Hirschbeck consistently has a very wide strike zone, and I think both pitchers will benefit nicely in this one. Stauffer has been solid all year and Wolf is a pitcher who relies on getting the corners. Both teams exploded for 8 and 6 runs last night, but neither of these offenses have been very good at all this year. San Diego has the worst offense in the league. I think on a get away day with some players resting this total is set too high. Take the under.
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05-10-11 | Detroit Tigers +107 v. Minnesota Twins | 10-2 | Win | 107 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dog of the Day Play* Francisco Lirano threw a no-hitter in his last outing. As strange as it may sound, I still think Liriano's mechanics look a bit off right now. Liriano has been wildly inconsistent this year, and the Twins are just 2-8 in his last 10 starts overall. They are 0-5 in his last 5 home starts. The Twins lineup is just not good right now. They are missing Mauer, Young, Thome, and others. Detroit has Victor Martinez back and their lineup is solid. Rick Porcello has pitched pretty well this year. I like the Tigers to keep their recent momentum going against the slumping Twins.
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05-10-11 | San Diego Padres v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 6-8 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres have an absolutely terrible offense. They rank last in all of baseball in runs per game at just 3.09. The team is also last in batting average at .216. The Milwaukee Brewers have struggled hitting lefties this year. Milwaukee averages just 2.4 runs per game against left-handed starters. Clayton Richard is a solid lefty, and Shawn Marcum is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. Both offenses have been struggling and I think these two pitchers will both pitch well tonight. Take the under.
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05-10-11 | Cincinnati Reds -120 v. Houston Astros | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Moneyline CASH* The Cincinati Reds are playing better baseball of late. I still think the Reds have a good shot at winning the NL Central again this year. Homer Bailey made his first start in the majors last week against the Astros, and he looked very good. Bailey had great control and he allowed just one run against the Astros. He bested Brett Myers and the Astros in that game, and I think the same will happen tonight. Myers hasn't had his best stuff this year, and the Reds have a much better lineup than Houston. The Reds are 21-8 in Bailey's last 29 starts. Take the Reds ML.
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05-10-11 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs +108 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Cards/Cubs Winner* Chris Carpenter and Carlos Zambrano square off in Game One of this huge MLB rivalry. Carlos Zambrano has a terrific history against the Cardinals. In fact, the Cubs are 17-5 in Zambrano's last 22 starts against St. Louis. The Cardinals are just 1-7 in Carpenter's last 8 road starts overall. The Cubs are 14-3 in Zambrano's last 17 starts overall. The last five times Zambrano and Carpenter have matched up against one another it has been the Cubs who have come out victorious. I'll take the Cubs in a mild upset.
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05-10-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Baltimore Orioles -109 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Moneyline Value Play* I'll be the first to admit that fading Seattle has cost me quite a bit of cash this year, but I still think this Mariners team is much worse than they have been playing. Pineda is a very good young pitcher, but it seems strange to the Mariners barely an underdog against an improving Orioles team on the road. Jake Arrieta is a very solid young pitcher as well. Arrieta had one bad start this year, but in 6 of his 7 starts he has allowed three earned runs or less. The Orioles have a much better lineup. I'll take the Orioles at home.
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05-09-11 | New York Mets v. Colorado Rockies -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Runline ROUT* The first time the Colorado Rockies faced Chris Capuano this year they scored seven runs off him in less than six innings. This time he will be pitching in Coors Field (with the wind blowing out). I think the Rockies will tee off in this game. Chacin has been consistently good for the Rockies of late, and I think he gives them a solid pitching edge in this game. I think this one has the potential to get ugly. Take the Rockies on the runline here.
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05-09-11 | Oakland A's v. Texas Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* Trevor Cahill is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.Cahill has a great sinker and he keeps the ball down well. The Rangers are missing Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, and Cahill has pitched extremely well against Texas in the past. A couple of weeks ago Cahill blanked the Rangers over seven innings. C.J. Wilson is turning into a legitimate ace, and I don't like this Oakland offense much at all. Expect both starting pitchers to put forth a solid effort here. Take the under.
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05-09-11 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Florida Marlins OVER 9 | 6-4 | Win | 104 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Javier Vazquez just hasn't had his "A Game" at all this year. Vazquez has an ERA of 6.39 for the year. The Phillies may be without Utley, but they still have Rollins, Victorino, Howard, Polanco, Ibanez, and plenty of pop in the lineup. Joe Blanton is pitching for the Phillies. Blanton has a 5.92 ERA this year overall, and he is nursing a minor elbow injury as well. The over is 21-7 in Blanton's last 28 starts. The over is also 7-2-2 in the Marlins last 11 games overall. I expect a high scoring affair. Take the over.
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05-09-11 | Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB MISMATCH Special* Josh Beckett has looked like the Josh Beckett of old this year. The Minnesota Twins lineup is extremely short-handed right now. No Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and no Jim Thome. The Red Sox have hit the ball very well in two straight games, and they appear to be trying to come out of their offensive slump. Boston is too good offensively to slump for too much longer. Nick Blackburn simply hasn't been good, and I expect Boston to hit him pretty hard here. The Twins are 1-4 in Blackburn's last 5 starts. The Red Sox are 19-9 in Beckett's last 28 home starts. Take the Red Sox -1.5.
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05-08-11 | Colorado Rockies -120 v. San Francisco Giants | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Moneyline Cash* The Colorado Rockies have lost two straight very difficult decisions to the Giants in San Francisco. I think this will be the Rockies chance to exact some revenge. De La Rosa has been a good pitcher on the road, and he has great numbers against the Giants. The Rockies are 9-1 in his last 10 starts against San Francisco. Vogelsong simply isn't a very good starting pitcher at this point, and I think Colorado can knock him out of this game fairly early. I like the Rockies avoid getting swept. Take Colorado.
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05-08-11 | Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I was very surprised to see this number come out at 7.5. Dan Haren is one of baseball's best pitchers, especially in the first half of the year. Fausto Carmona has been a little inconsistent, but he has pitched well against the Angels in the past. Paul Nauert is the umpire here, and he is a solid under umpire. How about some impressive trends? The under is 9-1-1 in Haren's last 11 home starts. The under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two in LA. The under is 4-0 in Carmona's last 4 against the Angels. This is my play of the day. Take the under.
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05-08-11 | Tampa Bay Rays -115 v. Baltimore Orioles | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Bring Out the Broom ML* The Tampa Bay Rays have been playing some terrific baseball of late. The Baltimore Orioles are an improving team, but they often go on long streaks and slumps. Tampa Bay has won seven in a row on the road. Wade Davis has had a quality start in every one of his starts this year. The Orioles are 0-7 in Bergesen's last 7 starts overall. The Orioles are also a horrific 33-72 in their last 105 Sunday games. The Rays have the better team all around. I like Tampa Bay on the moneyline.
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