Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-22-23 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 41 | Top | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show |
Buffalo Bills vs NE Patriots Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA 1:00 EST 8-Unit Best Bet OVER New England opened at 7.5 points rose to as high as 9 points before trading back down to 7.5 points and with 7 likely to be the number ahead of kickoff. The total has slid from an opening of 46 for this game before the season starts down to 40 and with some 39.5 numbers showing up. The Under has amassed a 53-37-1 Under record for 59% winners this season and 11-2-1 Under last week. So, for the first time in years, the public is betting this trend as if it will continue on for the remainder of the season. As a result, we are getting a cheap price for this game, especially given that the Bills are in position for a bounce back offensively against the Patriots. The implied game result based on the current market pricing is a 24-16 Bills win. The Patriots team total warrants a sprinkle or not more than 2 units betting Over 16.5 points and getting +105 juice at DraftKings. I don’t like the Over Buffalo team total as the Patriots might score 20 or more points, so as shocking as it might be, I think this game could end up quite close. There is simply a higher probability that the Patriots exceed their team total than it is for the Bills to exceed theirs. Betting on the Over with a total between 35.5 and 42 points that is coming off four consecutive Unders and is a team getting outscored by four or more PPG on the season has earned a 62-36 record for 63% winners since 1989 and 11-5 OVER for 69% since 2019. Now, if the team referenced is playing at home, which the Patriots are has produced a 37-13 Over record good for 74% winning bets. |
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10-21-23 | Duke v. Florida State -14 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Duke vs Florida State In a matchup of ranked teams where the home team is ranked in the Top-15 and favored by double digits and hosting a foe that is ranked 15th or higher in the latest poll and a total of 50 or fewer points have gone 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS. Duke is 1-9 ATS following a blowout win of 21 or more points over a conference rival. FSU is 10-1 ATS following three straight games facing conference foes. UNC coming off a 24-3 win as 4-point favorites over NC State. FSU is 6-0 on the season and coming off a 41-3 dominated win over Syracuse. They have scored 31 or more points in every game and have played a more difficult schedule than Duke. FSU played then No.5 LSU on a neutral field and won 45-24 and then two weeks later traveled to Clemson and won 31-24. |
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10-21-23 | Michigan v. Michigan State +25 | Top | 49-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
No. 2 Michigan vs Michigan State Michigan is 12-26 ATS in road games following a game in which they covered the spread by double-digits; 2-11 ATS following a game in which they scored 50 or more points. Betting on dogs between 21 and 25.5 points following three or more straight-up losses and facing a conference foe in the month of October has earned a highly profitable 38-20-3 ATS for 65.5% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This is a rivalry game and for Michigan State is their season as nothing else will really matter for them the remainder of the season. |
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10-21-23 | Capitals -125 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Capital vs Canadiens Bet on road favorites between -110 and -150 that is getting outscored in the first period of an average of 0.2 or more goals and allowed four or more goals in their previous game has produced a solid 69-40 record and earning a 22% ROI since 2015. If a favorite between -125 and -150, the record improves to 34-15 for 69% winners and earning a 34% ROI since 2015. |
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10-21-23 | Central Michigan -5.5 v. Ball State | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Central Michigan vs Ball State Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN 3:30 PM EST, Saturday Betting on road teams in a conference matchup with a total of 45 or fewer points that are facing a host that has had a -1 or worse turnover margin in three of their last four games has gone 41-22-1 ATS for 65% winners over the past 10 seasons. If the host has a win percentage of 40% or lower, the road teams improve to 22-9 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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10-21-23 | Penn State +5 v. Ohio State | Top | 12-20 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
Penn State vs Ohio State Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH Noon ET 10-Unit Best Bet on Penn State plus the 5 points. Consider betting this game with 8-units preflop and then look to add the remaining two units on PSU if OSU scores a TD first or regains the lead during the first half of action. From the models, there is a solid chance that if the research is correct, that PSU scores first and wins the game, which would eliminate any opportunity to get the 2-unit placed. Instead, playing a 6-Unit bet on the line and a 2-Unit bet on the money line preflop is a solid strategy too. PSU has one of the top offensive yards per point ratio in the nation – even factoring out the scrimmages against UMASS and Delaware. Teams that are ranked in the Top-10 from week 7 on out, and have posted a 46-7 SU record and a 31-22 ATS mark for 59% winning bets. If the team has a YPPT of 11 or lower (more efficient) and priced as a road dog have gone 20-12-1 ATS for 63% winners. The quarterback comparison is heavily in favor of PSU. In games against ranked AP opponents, Drew Allar has earned a 141 QB rating, completed 68% of his passes, averaged 166 passing yards per game and thrown for four touchdowns. He has yet to throw an interception in any game. OSU’s Kyle McCord has posted a 111 QBR, completed only 57% of his passes, averaging 240 passing yards and throwing ZERO touchdowns. Now, McCord has to go up against arguably the best defense in the nation that ranks #2 nationally allowing 8.2 PPG, best allowing 204 YPG, #2 allowing 0.128 points-per-play, best allowing 3.2 YPP, 8th allowing a 28% third down conversion rate, second allowing 67.4 rushing yards per game and allowing 2.1 yards per rush, best allowing 51% completion percentage, best allowing 4.9 yards per pass, #2 with a 14% sack percentage. Penn State defeated UMASS 63-0 last week. That result may seem completely irrelevant for this game, but note that teams that scored 58 or more points and allowed six or fewer points in their previous game and now are priced as a road dog have gone 28-16 ATS for 64% since 1980 and if facing a conference foe they have gone 14-6 ATS for 70% winners. PSU QB Drew Allar has a canon for an arm and despite the grey skies, I do believe you will see vertical crossing routes deep down the field using play action. PSU offensive line is tremendous and the best unit that Franklin has ever had. The ground attack is going to control the line of scrimmage and then when you see the OSU safeties creep closer and closer to the LOS to support the run defense I when these ’bomb’s will be thrown. Note, too, that OSU has allowed and gotten 10 sacks on the season. PSU has 26 sacks 50 tackles for loss and has allowed a sack on just 2.4% of all plays run ranking 9th-best nationally. PSU is the better team on the OL and DL and we are getting points. |
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10-20-23 | Phillies -122 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -122 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks 8:07 PM EST, October 20, 2023 8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 4 using the money line Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.
The Phillies are playing at a historically high level and as a team are playing at induvial Cy Young and MVP levels. Only six other MLB players have hit more home runs in the playoffs than Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies have led or were tied in 70 of the 72 innings they played in the playoffs with the lone exception Game 2 of the Divisional Series against their rival Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have scored first in all of their eight playoff games. The 2017 Houston Astros scored first in 14 of their 18 playoff games enroute to the World Series Championship. Teams in the playoffs that scored first went on produce a 462-227 record for 67% wins since 2004. So far, in 2023, teams that scored first have gone 19-4 for 83% and the Phillies account for eight of those games. In other words, there have been just four come-from-behind wins in the playoffs this season. The Phillies have had nine multiple-run-innings in the playoffs representing 12.5% of the innings played. The Phillies have allowed just three multiple-run-innings while the Diamondbacks have allowed the most with seven. In the playoffs, teams with a 2-1 series lead and lost their last game are 36-20 (64%) 30% ROI If a rod favorite: 9-2 (82%) 47% ROI Teams that are winning the series and have a bullpen that is allowing |
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10-20-23 | Devils -107 v. Islanders | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
NJ Devils vs NY Islanders 7:37 EST Betting on road teams that are favored between -110 and -150 that are getting outscored in the first period by 0.2 or more goals and are coming off a game in which they allowed four or more goals has produced a 72-43 (63%) record and earning a 21% ROI since 2014. If a divisional matchup, our road warriors have gone 26-13 for 67% and earning a 27% ROI over the past 10 seasons. The predictive model tells us that NJ is 42-4 when they have allowed two or fewer goals in games played over the past two seasons. |
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10-20-23 | SMU -23 v. Temple | Top | 55-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
SMU vs Temple Betting on road teams that allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games and now taking on a host that scored 17 or fewer points in their last game has earned a 133-66-2 ATS record for 67% winners. If the game is a conference matchup and our road team is favored by 17 or more points, the record soars to 45-3 SU, 34-14 ATS for 71% winners since 2010. Betting on road teams that are facing a host that has had a -1 or worse turnover margin in four consecutive games has gone 87-41-4 ATS for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. If our road team is a double-digit favorite, they soar to 28-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets. |
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10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 40 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Jacksonville vs. New Orleans The market is overwhelmingly betting the Under all week and pushing it lower. 77% of the tickets bet this week are on the Under. Saints are 22-7-1 Over in home games and taking on a foe that is averaging 45 or fewer penalty yards per game. JAX is 51-32 Over after having won four or five of their last six games; 31-15 ATS off a home win to a divisional rival. JAX head coach Pederson is 17-6 Over when priced as a 7 or fewer road underdog. Since 1991, there have been just four teams to start out their seasons with 6 consecutive Under results. They all went 4-0 SUATS and 4-0 OVER. Teams that played six consecutive games Under the posted total and playing in weeks 7 through 10 have seen the Over go 24-10 for 71% winners. If the total is less than 43 points, the Over has gone 21-8 for 72.4% winning bets. Also, the Jaguars have really gotten it together over the past several weeks and without anyone noticing. They have produced a 11.8 yards per point ratio on offense for their last three games, which is third best in the league and a 21.9 YPPT ratio defensively over their last three games, which ranks 2nd in the league. Last, the Over price reflects the uncertainty or likelihood that Trevor Lawrence will not play tonight for the Jaguars. However, I am hearing that there is a much higher probability he will be under center tonight.
Thursday Night Football 8-UNIT Best Bet Total |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall +3.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
James Madison vs Marshall JMU is off to a perfect 6-0 start and are one of 11 undefeated FBS teams left in the nation. Marshall is a member of the Sun Belt and they need to a win to keep pace for the conference lead with Georgia State given that JMU is not eligible having moved up from the FCS last season. Also, JMU is coming off a monster win on the scoreboard winning by 28 points but outgaining Georgia Southern by just 18 total yards. Betting on home dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points following a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and facing a foe that has turned in a +1 turnover advantage in each of their previous two games has produced a highly profitable 20-9-3 ASTS for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. NCAAF Thursday Night Sun Belt |
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10-19-23 | Phillies -126 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -126 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies 8:07 PM EST, October 19, 2023 8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 3 using the money line Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.
The Phillies are playing at a historically high level and as a team are playing at induvial Cy Young and MVP levels. Only six other MLB players have hit more home runs in the playoffs than Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies have led or were tied in 70 of the 72 innings they played in the playoffs with the lone exception Game 2 of the Divisional Series against their rival Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have scored first in all of their eight playoff games. The 2017 Houston Astros scored first in 14 of their 18 playoff games enroute to the World Series Championship. Teams in the playoffs that scored first went on produce a 462-227 record for 67% wins since 2004. So far, in 2023, teams that scored first have gone 19-4 for 83% and the Phillies account for eight of those games. In other words, there have been just four come-from-behind wins in the playoffs this season. The Phillies have had nine multiple-run-innings in the playoffs representing 12.5% of the innings played. The Phillies have allowed just three multiple-run-innings while the Diamondbacks have allowed the most with seven. Road teams in the playoffs that have won the first two games of the series are 28-23 for 55% averaging a +111 DOG and earning a 17% ROI. The Diamondbacks are starting rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who was drafted #1569 overall in the 5th round of 2020 draft and attended Bellarmine University. He is a right-handed pitcher and MLB prototype 6-4 and 220 pounds. He throws 4-seam 45%, a slurve 27%, change up to mostly LH batters 12% and a sinker 10% and the rest a rare curveball. Since he does throw a slurve (Now called a sweeper and I hate it TBH) so the curve ball rarity is pointless. The bad news for Pfaadt other than being thrown into the Lion’s den, is that he ranks poorly in pitching run value, and just the fifth percentile in fastball run value. Worse yet he ranks in the bottom third percentage in barrel percentage and that is what the Phillies lineup top to bottom does very well right now. I think the Diamondbacks will look to get him through the lineup at least once and no more than twice and then look to their bullpen to finish off the remaining innings. Of the 1,612 pitches he has thrown, he has yielded 109 hits and 26 walks over 96 innings. 74 of the 109 hits allowed had exit velocities of over 100 MPH, which is horrid, especially against a power-hitting team like the Phillies. Moreover, his expected weighted OBP is 0.291enterig this game. Player Props for this Game (1-Unit max each)Brandon Pfaadt Under 11.5 recorded outs +110 at BetMGM Bryson Stott to record an RBI +225 at UniBet Corbin Carroll to record a double +550 at Bet365 Nick Castellanos to score a run +170 at DrfatKings MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 8. Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM L -140 9. Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145 10. Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100 11. Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105 12. Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100 13. Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100 14. Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100 15. Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings 16. Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars 17. Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365 18. Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers – L -100 19. Kyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365 – L -100 20. Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings – L -100 21. Kyle Schwarber to get a hit +116 at BetRivers – W +116 22. Tommy Pham to get a hit -160 at FanDuel – L - 160 23. Brandon Marsh to get a hit -110 at BetMGM – W +100 24. Bryce Harper to score a run +120 at BetMGM – W +120 25. Christian Walker to hit the first HR of the game +1000 (Consider ½-unit on this one) L -50 Total: +701 |
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10-18-23 | Aces v. Liberty -3.5 | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Las Vegas vs New York
Wednesday, 7 EST WNBA Finals
8-Unit Best Bet on the New York Liberty minus the 3.5 points
Betting on any team coming off an upset win of 10 or more points and has played just three games in their past 10 days have gone 63-44-2 ATS for 59% winning bets and if our team is playing at home has earned a 33-21-1 ATS record for 61% winning bets. If the total in these games was between 160 and 175 points, their record goes to 15-8-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. |
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10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers -127 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -127 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
Houston vs Texas 8:03 PM EST, October 18, 2023 Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX 8-UNIT BEST BET on the Texas Rangers using the money line
The Rangers have been nearly as hot as the Phillies in their playoff run and a bit surprising too given that they blew the division crown in the Final weeks and had to go on the road to play a best-of-three series at the Tampa Bay Rays. Texas has won all seven of their playoff games and just one of those games has been at home. They have outscored their foes 39-16 including two shutouts. Teams that won the first two games of a playoff series on the road and now at home have gone 21-14 averaging a -112 wager and earning a 15% ROI. If they are a favorite of not more than -150, they have gone 15-9 SU averaging a -129 wager and earning a 17% ROI. Texas is 14-6 for 70% averaging a -117-wager earning a 35% ROI when facing a foe that is scoring an average of 4.8 or more RPG in games played after the all start break this season.
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10-18-23 | Florida International +5.5 v. Sam Houston State | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
Florida International vs. Sam Houston State Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX 8-Unit Best Bet on FIU plus the points, currently priced at 5. With the total priced at 41 points, scoring volatility will be below normal and limits the opportunity for a live in-game first half bet. So, I recommend placing the 8-Units all at once preflop. Betting on dogs of 4.5 to 9.5 points in weeks 5 through 9 of the regular season that are coming off back-to-back conference losses of 10 or more points have gone 27-33 SU and 42-17-1 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2015. |
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -157 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies 8:07 PM EST, October 17, 2023 8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 1 using the money line Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.
Dan Iassogna will be the home plate umpire and for the 2023 season, home teams have gone just 10-20 SU under his strike zone watch. This is quite misleading as coincidentally he was behind the plate in 14 of those games with the home team posting a losing record at the time and with that team going 4-10. So, winning record home teams went 6-10 on the season with Iassogna as the home plate umpire. In the playoffs this will be his 15th game behind the plate and the home team is 7-7, but the Over is 8-4 for 67%. Also, for his career, winning record home teams are 90-71 (56%) when facing a winning record foe. Here is the umpire angle supporting the Phillies. When Iassogna has been behind the dish, winning record home favorites of -150 or more hosting a winning record foe have gone 33-12 for 73% averaging a -178 wager and earning a 22% ROI for his career. Phillies’ skipper Rob Thomson is 41-15 making 22 units when facing a NL foe that is batting .250 or lower in games played in the second half of the season in each of the previous two seasons. In the playoffs, teams that have batted .230 or worse over their previous 15 games have gone 69-104 (40%) averaging a +105 wager and a money-losing -23% ROI. If these teams are on the road have gone 28-52 for 35% averaging a 121 wager and a losing -24% ROI. If the game 2 or beyond and coming off a loss, these road teams have gone 11-26 (30%) averaging a +118 wager and a losing -37% ROI. Player Props for this Game (1-Unit max each)Kyle Schwarber to get a hit +116 at BetRivers Tommy Pham to get a hit -160 at FanDuel Brandon Marsh to get a hit -110 at BetMGM Bryce Harper to score a run +120 at BetMGM Christian Walker to hit the first HR of the game +1000 (Consider ½-unit on this one) MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 8. Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM L -140 9. Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145 10. Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100 11. Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105 12. Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100 13. Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100 14. Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100 15. Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings 16. Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars 17. Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365 18. Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers – L -100 19. Kyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365 – L -100 20. Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings – L -100 Total: +575 |
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10-17-23 | Lightning +108 v. Sabres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Buffalo 7:30 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on the TB Lightning using the money line. The Lightning are 31-24 averaging a +125 wager making 23 units when on the road and coming off two consecutive road losses over the past 20 seasons and 13-6 averaging a -110 wager and earning a 27% ROI over the past 10 seasons. Lightning head coach Jon Cooper is 145-77 for 65% wins averaging a -132 wager and earning a 28% ROI when having lost two of their last three games. If that game had the Lightning priced between a -125 favorite and a +125 underdog they went on to produced a 50-34 record averaging a _104 wager and earning a 20% ROI. Also, I prefer to have Jonas Johansson in net. |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers +1.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
MNF: Dallas vs LA Chargers SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers +1.5 points Consider betting 6-Units on the Chargers preflop and then look to add the remaining 2 units if Dallas scores a TD first or takes a 10-0 lead or retakes the lead by 4 or more points during the first half of action. Betting on teams using the money line following a game in which they forced three or more turnovers and now taking on a foe that committed four or more turnovers in their previous game has earned a 36-12 record for 75% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons. If the game has a total of 50 or more points, they have gone on to a near-perfect 6-1 SUATS mark for 86% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, the Chargers are a rock-solid 62-8 SU (89%) and 58-12 ATS (83%) winning bets in home games in which they scored 23 or more points and forced two or more turnovers. |
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10-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -159 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies 8:07 PM EST, October 16, 2023 8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 1 using the money line Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to dd 2 unit smore if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.
Based on the analytics, on-base-percentage supersedes home run hitting in the playoffs. Of course, there are the games like Game 4 of the NLCS where all the runs scored in the 3-1 Phillies win were solo home runs. However, the innings and at-bats prior to those home runs set the stage for the Phillies to hit six home runs in Game 3 and three in Game 4. In the playoffs, keeping a starting pitcher under duress with consistent base-running traffic will set the stage for the home run and ultimately the dominant factor in most playoff wins. Then first and third situation is the most stressful for a starting pitcher and the Phillies have generated far more of those situations than any other team in the playoffs. In the playoffs, the Diamondbacks have 44 hits, 21 walks, and 19 extra-base-hits. The Phillies have amassed 54 hits, 23 walks, and 26 extra-base-hits. The Phillies have attained an outstanding 0.411 on-base-percentage while the Diamondbacks are right on their heels posting a 0.393 OBP in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks rank tops in the playoffs having seen an average of 4.27 pitches per plate appearance and the Phillies rank 4th averaging 4.05 pitches seen per plate appearance. The Phillies’ left fielder Nick Castellanos became the first player in MLB post season history to hit two or more home runs in consecutive games and ranks best with 23 total bases in the playoffs. He and teammate Trea Turner rank best with six extra-base hits. Turner ranks best with a remarkable 0.556 batting average of balls in play and 7th in Isolated Power. The depth of this lineup gives the Phillies a significant offensive advantage over the Diamondbacks. The Phillies’ Rookie sensation and center fielder Johan Rojas is already one of the best in the game today and was credited with a potential series saving catch in the gap in deep left-center fielder off the bat of Ronald Acuna. His defense far outweighs his struggles at the plate, and it is a bonus when he gets on base to turn the lineup over. JR Realmuto is the best catcher in the game bar none and over the Phillies defense is monumentally better and more consistent than the Diamondbacks. The Phillies Are the Team No Franchise Wants to FaceThe Phillies have a tremendous team chemistry that has shown all season with every player celebrating any other’s great play on the field. There are no egos on this team and is a tribute to skipper Rob Thomson, who utilized 110 different starting lineups this season, and the leadership on and off the field by veterans in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and others. They have no fear whatsoever playing on the road against any team and have by far the best home field advantage and their incredibly supportive and passionate fan base. There are home field advantages and then there is Philadelphia’s Citizen’s Bank Park. As was the case in the two previous series, the biggest advantage the Phillies have is their bullpen, which was outstanding against the Braves. The unit is clearly an example of when you are called into the game just do your job. Phillies’ manager Rob Thomson used the relievers in various roles in the regular and playoff seasons and even had Matt Strahm on the hill to close out the series against the Braves, which was just hist his third save of the season. Situational Team and Player Trends and Angles for the NLCSIn the Phillies’ 3-1 Game-4 win that clinched the Divisional Series over the Braves, both Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber failed to get a hit. In past games, the Phillies are 9-3 following a game in which Schwarber and Stott did not get a hit. Stott and Schwarber are on my radar for the DraftKings lineups for the first two games of this series. Supports Phillies in Game 1. Phillies are 38-14 averaging a -165 wager and earning a 33% ROI in home games and taking on a NL foe that is batting 0.255 or lower in games played after the all-star break and playoffs in the past two seasons. Phillies are a perfect 6-0 in the first game of a playoff series spanning the last two seasons. The Situational Betting Algorithm for Game 1The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 33-8 record for 80% winning bets in games played in October and November over the past five regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a foe that has achieved a 0.480 slugging percentage over their previous five games in the month of October.
My best bet for Game 1 is on the Phillies by placing a 6-Unit amount on the money line and then look to add the remaining two units if the Diamondbacks score first or retake the lead during the first four innings of this game as offered at DraftKings.\ Player Props for this GameKyle Schwarber to hit a double +575 at Bet365 Bryson Stott to hit a double +525 at BetRivers Alex Bohm to get a hit -250 at Unibet Christian Walker to hit a home run +450 at DraftKings MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 8. Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM L -140 9. Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145 10. Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100 11. Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105 12. Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100 13. Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100 14. Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100 15. Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings 16. Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars 17. Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365 18. Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers Total: +875 |
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10-16-23 | Panthers +160 v. Devils | Top | 4-3 | Win | 160 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
Florida vs New Jersey 7:07 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on Florida using the money line. The following algorithm has earned a highly profitable 40-24 averaging a +137 dog bet and earning a 43% ROI over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs of not more than 180 using the money line that scored four or more goals in their previous game and now facing a host that is coming off two consecutive games in which they and their foes each scored 3 or more goals. Also, I prefer to have Sergei Bobrovsky in goal for the Panthers. NHL 8-Unit Best Bet |
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10-15-23 | Patriots v. Raiders OVER 41 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders 4:05 PM EST, Week 6 10-Unit best bet OVER the posted total The Patriots are certainly struggling right now, especially on offense where they have scored a total of three points over their last two games and got shutout in their last game. The Patriots have seen their last four games play under the total and by a combined 19 points and in large part because of their anemic pathetic offensive performances. On defense they have allowed the opponents team total to go Over by a combined 22 points over their last four games and by 29 points over their last two games. The Patriots offense has played Under their team total by an incredibly poor 44 points. Teams that have played under their team total by 40 or more points and are on the road have gone 22-27 SU and 33-16 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990. Teams that have scored 3 or fewer points in their last two games have seen the Over go 10-3 for 77% winners and teams that have scored 6 or fewer points over their last two games have gone 29-12 Over for 71% winning bets. Betting the Over with road teams in a game with a posted total of 37.5 to 42.5 points that are averaging an anemic 14 or fewer points per game and coming off two consecutive double-digit losses has seen the Over go 35-16-1 ATS for 69% winning bets since 1990 and 6-1 Over spanning the past five seasons. |
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10-15-23 | Panthers +14.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL 1:00 EST, Week 6 8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points, currently priced at +14.5 points. Well, periodically, the numbers do point solidly to a dog, or perhaps better stated using the noun mutt, or a dog with a serious case of fleas, and this is certainly one of those opportunities. Carolina is winless at 0-5 and the Dolphins are 4-1 overall and 2-0 at home and considered by many to be the team to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC. Betting on Dogs, with or without fleas, that are facing a non-divisional foe that has gained at least 450 total yards in each of their last three games and is also averaging at least 6 yards per play for the season have gone an amazing 11-15 SU and 20-5-1 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.
Several months ago, when the Circa and a few others released their full season betting lines, the Dolphins were priced as a 7-point home favorite. The market has moved the price to a whopping 14.5 points an increase of 7.5 points. I have studied and participated in the Circa and WestGate and numerous other contests and when the line moves 6 or more points from those opening preseason lines presents a sold contrarian betting opportunity. The market and betting communities over react and price the surging juggernauts higher than warranted and discount the talents of struggling winless teams too much– not always of course. Winless teams on the road in weeks 4 through 7 of the regular season are 32-13-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the are priced as double-digit dogs has produced an 8-3 ATS mark for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
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10-15-23 | Saints v. Texans +2 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
New Orleans Saints vs Houston Texans NRG Stadium, Houston, TX 1:00 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Texans plus the 2.5 points
Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that are coming off a loss of three or fewer points and facing a foe that allowed 6 or fewer points in their previous game have gone 30-10 SU and 28-12 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. Home dogs in this role are 12-14 SU and 17-9 ASTS for 65% winners, and 17-8-1 Over the total for 68% winners. If priced as a four or fewer point dog, they soar to 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets. Saints are 1-8 ATS when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards and 1-10 ATS after allowing three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game spanning the past three seasons. Regression.
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10-15-23 | 49ers v. Browns +10 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
49ers vs Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM EST, Week 6
8-Unit Best bet on the Browns plus the 10 or more points Watson is not starting, but the market has all of this priced into the current level of 10 points. The 49ers coming off a 32-point victory over the rival Dallas Cowboys and now will be facing a vastly underrated defensive unit that I believe can keep this game quite close no matter who is under center for the Browns offense. Bet on home underdogs that are facing a foe that has defeated their opponents by an average of 10 or more PPG and with that foe coming off a double-digit win have gone 40-45 SU, 60-24-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If that foes win was by 21 or more points, these dogs have gone 22-28 SU and 34-15-1 ATS for 69.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If that foe is also averaging fewer than 1 turnovers per game have seen these dogs go 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets. |
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10-14-23 | USC +3 v. Notre Dame | Top | 20-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
USC vs Notre Dame Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Damer, IN 7:30 EST NBC/Peacock 8-Unit Best Bet on the Trojans plus the 2.5 points. This game is a matchup of ranked teams with USC taking to the road with a 6-0 SU record to take on a desperate Notre Dame squad with two losses on the season. USC is 2-4 ATS and 5-1 Over for the season. The Irish are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS including a 4-3 Under result on the season. USC has lost to the spread and seen the Over win the money in each of their last three games. Notre Dame has lost two of their last three games in a most-difficult schedule and covered the spread in just one. Notre Dame lost 17-14 hosting Ohio State, then took to the road and won a tough-fought game 21-14 at Duke, and then another road game losing at Louisville by the final score of 33-20. The Irish team is experiencing a fatigue problem on both sides of the ball, but regardless will have to be fully prepared if they have hopes of upsetting USC and their reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Smith. Supporting USC is the following betting system that has produced a 23-24 SU record and 25-12 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 1. Bet on a road teams priced between the 4’s. 2. That road team is coming off a game in which they and their foe scored 31 or more points in their previous game. 3. The game is a non-conference matchup. |
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10-14-23 | Blackhawks v. Canadiens -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Chicago vs Montreal 7 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on Montreal using the money line. The following algorithm has earned a highly profitable 33-8 for 81% record averaging a -140 wager and earning a 44% ROI over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on winless teams playing at home that are favored by no more than -200 on the money line and coming off a one-goal loss to a divisional foe. If they are favored by less than -150 on the money line. Also, I prefer to have Samuel Montembeault in goal for the Canadiens. |
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10-14-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
No. 14 Louisville vs Pittsburgh Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA 8-Unit Best Bet on the Pitt Panthers plus the six points and sprinkle the money line. 6:30 PM EST Betting on home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points coming off two straight double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 and with the total of at least 40 points has earned a strong 21-25 SU record and 32-12-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Now, be sure to be sitting down for this subset. If our home dog has won no more than one game on the season, they soar to an unreal 10-9 SU and 15-3-1 ATS record good for 83% winning bets. |
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10-14-23 | Oregon v. Washington -3 | Top | 33-36 | Push | 0 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
No. 8 Oregon vs No. 7 Washington
8:00 EST, Thursday
10-Unit Best Bet on Washington minus the points, currently priced as 3-point favorites.
Betting on teams priced between the 3’s and facing a foe following four consecutive games in which they covered the spread has produced a 39-15 SU record for 72% and 40-14 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. Not one losing record and went 14-1 ATS in 2021. If our team is playing at home and facing a conference foe, their record has gone 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. From the predictive model, we learn that Washington is 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS for 75% when scoring 35 or more points and gaining at least 7.4 yards per play. Washington is also 7-1 ATS when having 10 or more first downs and gaining at least 6 YPPL. Last, Washington is 31-2 SU and 28-4-1 ATS when scoring 28 or more points and having 10 or more first downs than their foes. 10-UNIT PAC-12 MAX Best Bet Game of the Month |
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10-14-23 | Troy -6 v. Army | Top | 19-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Troy vs Army Michie Stadium, West Point, NY 3:30 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on Troy minus the 6 points Betting on road teams with a win percentage of at least 60% and coming off a conference win allowing less than 10 points has earned an outstanding 58-34-3 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If the host has a losing record on the season (Army), our road teams have gone 22-10-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If the total is 55 or fewer points, our road team has produced a highly profitable 10-0 ATS. Take Troy. |
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10-14-23 | Syracuse +19 v. Florida State | Top | 3-41 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
Syracuse Orange vs. No. 4 Florida State Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL Noon EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Orange +18.5 points From the predictive model, we are expecting the Orange offense to outperform the market’s expectations by scoring 26 or more points in this game. Betting OVER the Orange team total is valid. Consider betting 5 to 6 units on Syracuse plus the points and the remaining 1 to 2 units OVER the team total. Now, in past games in which the Orange scored 26 or more points and scored in each quarter has produced a 40-7 SU record, 38-8-1 ATS mark for 83% winning bets. In road games dressed as a conference dog and scoring in at least 3 of the 4 quarters has produced a 7-7 SU record and an 11-2-1 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets. A little sprinkle on the money line is warranted – just in case. |
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10-14-23 | Indiana v. Michigan -33 | Top | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
Indiana vs Michigan Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI Noon EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Wolverines minus the points Betting on a team that has won their last three games by at least 21 points and facing a foe that lost their last game by 17 or more points has produced an exceptional 77-8 SU record and a 59-25-1 ATS mark for 70% winning bets since 2010. Now, if that foe is coming off a loss to a conference foe the record improves to a stellar 47-17-1 ATS for 73.4% winning bets since 2010. Drilling a bit deeper into the data, if our team is favored by 21 or more points, they soar to 44-0 SU and 34-9-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2010. A second algorithm has produced a 31-16 ATS mark for 66% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to bet on an undefeated team favored by 21 or more points that has won their last two games by 28 or more points and facing a foe that allowed 37 or more points in their last game. |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State -4.5 v. Utah State | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Fresno State vs Utah State 8:00 PM EST, Friday 8-Unit Best Bet on Fresno State minus the points, currently priced as a 4-point favorite. The following betting algorithm has produced a 278-70 SU record for 80% wins and 207-137-4 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 12 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites that are averaging 31 or more PPG and facing a foe that is coming off back-to-back games in which 60 or more points were scored in each game. If our road favorite is facing a conference foe and coming off an upset loss, the record improves to 33-6 SU for 85% wins and 26-12-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2012. FSU head coach Tedford is 30-15-1 ATS for 67% winners as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. USU head coach Anderson is just 2-11 ATS after gaining 575 or more3 total yards in their previous game. Ryan’s NCAAF Friday Night Lights Best Bet |
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10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 46.5 | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Denver vs KC
8:15 EST
8-UNIT bet OVER the total, currently at 47 points Broncos are 19-5 Over when facing a team that averages 19 or fewer yards on kickoff returns; 45-20 Over following three or more consecutive Over results; Payton is 40-20-2 Over in road games with a total between 42.5 and 49 points for his career. From the predictive model, we learn that the OVER has gone 11-4-1 for 73% winners when the Chiefs have gained 400 or more total yards in games played over the past three seasons; 16-4 Over for 80% winners when gaining at least 6 yards per play in games played over the past three seasons. NFL 8-UNIT BEST BET TOTAL |
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10-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies +133 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 133 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line In this game, like yesterday’s game, I think betting the 8-Units preflop makes sense given the probability – not the certainty – that the Phillies will get out to an early lead and win start to finish. Notice I said probability. Betting against elite offensive teams scoring an average of 5 or more RPG on the season in the playoff rounds that is facing a team, like the Phillies with an exceptional bullpen posting a season to date ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned a 36-11 record for 77% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. The Phillies tied a MLB Playoff record with 6 home runs in Wednesday’s huge 10-2 win over the Braves. Note that teams in the playoffs that have hit four or more home runs in their previous home game and now playing at home again have gone 9-3 SU averaging a -111 wager and earning a 47% ROI. Harper hit two home runs and in previous games in which he hit 2+ home runs his teams have gone 10-5 for a 25% ROI. Castellanos hit two home runs in his previous game and the Phillies are 4-1 in the next game. Player Props for this GameKyle Schwarber to hit a home run +400 at DraftKings Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 strikeouts +135 at Caesars Harper to have 2 or more total bases +150 at bet365 Alec Bohm to hit a double + 375 at BetRivers MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 8. Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM L -140 9. Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145 10. Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100 11. Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105 12. Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100 13. Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100 14. Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100 Total: +875 |
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10-12-23 | Flyers +100 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
8-Unit Best Bet on the Flyers using the money line and make certain Flyer’s goalie Carter Hart is in net. From the predictive model, we are expecting the Flyers and Hart to allow two or fewer goals. The Flyers are 21-5 making 27 units when allowing two or fewer goals in matches played over the past two seasons. Columbus is an imperfect 0-44 when scoring two or fewer goals and 0-20 when scoring two goals exact in matches played in the past two seasons. |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | Top | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
West Virginia vs Houston
7:00 EST, Thursday
8-Unit Best Bet on Houston plus the points Houston is 18-6 ATS for 75% winners when facing a team that averages fewer than one forced turnover per game; 32-16-1 ATS after having failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games; 11-1 SU in home games following two straight games in which they did not turn the ball over more than once in games played over the past three seasons. Betting on teams priced between the 3’s and facing a foe following four consecutive games in which they covered the spread has produced a 39-15 SU record for 72% and 40-14 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. Not one losing record and went 14-1 ATS in 2021. |
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10-11-23 | Liberty +5 v. Aces | Top | 76-104 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 13 m | Show |
New York Liberty vs LV Aces
Wednesday, 9 EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the Liberty plus the five points Betting on road teams that have allowed 50% shooting in three consecutive games and facing a foe that is coming off a game in which they shot better than 50% has produced a 25-14-1 ATS for 64% winners over the past 15 seasons and 6-1 ATS if in a playoff game. From the predictive model, we know that the Liberty in road games, scoring 81 or more points and having out rebounded their foe by at least 5 boards has gone to a 76-11 SU record and a 65-22 ATS for 75% winning bets. |
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10-11-23 | UTEP v. Florida International OVER 43.5 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
UTEP vs Florida International 7:30 EST, Wednesday Riccardo Silva Stadium, Miami, FL 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total of 44 points Both teams are winless in C-USA play and barring a tie, one will walk away with the win. UTEP is 1-5 SUATS on the season and FIU is 3-3 SUATS. UTEP has played the more difficult schedule to date and that will pay off for them tonight in Miami. The ‘numbers’ do not point to a graded play on UTEP, however, they do point to UTEP exceeding their season to date measures, which makes the OVER the more likely bet to win. The Market is telling us that this will be a 23-21 FIU win tonight. The predictive model is expecting that both teams will score 24 or more points, In road games against a conference foe in which UTEP scored 24 or more points has seen the Over go 25-5 for 83% winning bets since 2005. FIU in home games against a conference foe and scoring at least 24 points has seen the Over go 26-10-3 for 72% winning bets since 2005. Betting on the Over from week 6 on out when priced between 42.5 and 49 points and the road team has a terrible turnover defense that forces less than one turnover per game has yielded a 62-36-2 record good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our road team is coming off a home loss to a conference foe and scored 14 or fewer points in that loss has seen the Over go 12-4 for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. . |
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10-11-23 | Astros v. Twins -119 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins 7:07 EST 10-Unit Best Bet on the Twins using the money line, currently priced at -120. This line is likely to trend a bit lower ahead of the first pitch in the aftermath of the monster win by the Astros last night and the public’s recency bias. So far, 76% of the tickets and only 55% of the money has been on the Astros and this sentiment is bullish on the Twins. Betting on home teams that have gone 10 straight games committing no more than a single error in any of them and facing a foe that hit four or more home runs in their previous game have gone 101-55 SU for 65% winning bets averaging a -100 bet and earning a highly profitable 24% ROI since 2019. If in the playoffs, these teams have gone a perfect 7-0 averaging a -105 wager and earning a 100% ROI. In the playoffs, Home teams that are facing a foe that hit four or more home runs in their previous game of the series have gone 11-2 averaging a -112 wager and earning a 64% ROI. Player Props: Pizza MONEY sizeAaron Nola Over 4.5 strikeouts -160 at DraftKings Trea Turner top hit a home run +390 1. Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 8. Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM L -140 9. Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145 10. Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100 11. Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105 12. Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100 13. Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100 14. Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100 Total: +875 |
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10-11-23 | Braves v. Phillies -118 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Citizens Bank Park, Atlanta, GA 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line In this game, I think betting the 8-Units preflop makes sense given the probability – not the certainty – that the Phillies will get out to an early lead and win start to finish. Notice I said probability. Betting against elite offensive teams scoring an average of 5 or more RPG on the season in the playoff rounds that is facing a team, like the Phillies with an exceptional bullpen posting a season to date ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned a 35-11 record for 75% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. |
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10-10-23 | Seattle Kraken +145 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Seattle Kraken vs Las Vegas Golden Knights 10:37 EST, October 10, 2023 8-Unit Best bet on the Kraken using the money line, currently priced at +145 Consider betting 6.5-Units pre flop on the Kraken and then look to get the remaining 1.5-units on the +1.5 puck with a vig of -110 or lower during the first period only. The Stanley Cup Champs for a many reasons shows up with a bit of a hangover from the previous season. There is all the celebration in front of the home fans and presentation of awards that the game itself ends up being a letdown for the defending Champions. Plus, the visiting team, in this case the Kraken, who are a Pacific Division rival, would love to take it out on them on their home ice. In the first home game of the season, the defending Champion has posted an 11-9 SU record, but by averaging a -165 money line wager ends up losing money for a -15% ROI. They are even worse 5-14 on the -1.5-puck line, averaging a +150 wager and a losing -27 %ROI. If our road underdog had a winning record in the previous season, the defending champs are 7-7 averaging a -155 wager and losing -19% ROI. The defending champ has lost their first game of the season in three of the last four games. Last year, the Tampa Bay Lightning lost 6-2 as -250 favorites to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Two years ago, the St. Louis Blues opened up the season with a 3-2 loss as -150 favorites to the Washington Capitals. Three seasons ago, the Washington Capitals opened up their season with a 7-0 win over the Boston Bruins priced as -115 favorites and four seasons ago, the Penguins opened up with a 5-4 loss priced as a -180 favorite to the St. Louis Blues. Seattle went 30-19 in road games averaging a +123 wager and earning a highly profitable 34% ROI last season and if they were a road dog of not more than +200 went 19-14 averaging a +145 wager and earning a 47% ROI. |
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10-10-23 | Liberty -6.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Liberty at Jacksonville State
7:30 EST, Tuesday
Burgess-Snow Field, Jacksonville, AL
8-Unit Best Bet on Liberty minus the points, currently -6
Let’s get right into the betting algorithm supporting this best bet opportunity produced from the predictive model. This one has earned a 33-33 record, but a highly profitable 41-21-4 ATS for 66.1% winning bets over the past 8 seasons going back to 2014. The requirements are to bet on teams in a matchup of soldi teams that each have won 80% or more of their games on the season and with the foe having covered the spread by 49 or more points over the past five games. Now, if our team is favored by 4.5 to 9.5 points, the record soars to a highly profitable 12-4-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Liberty is undefeated at 5-0 and has covered the spread in four of those five games losing to the spread last game against Sam Houston State. JAX State is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. They have covered their last five games by 62.5 points and by 67 points on the season. So, this is the achievement level in which we would expect JAX State to experience some form of regression and a market that has now over valued them. In fact, home dogs of 6 or more points that have covered the spread by 60 or more points over their last 6 games have gone just 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS for 30% wins. |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Green Bay vs Las Vegas
8:15 PM EST
8-UNIT BEST BET on Green Bay Packers +2.5 or more points. Coming off a dismal NFL Sunday, but it is a reminder that no one is going to produce profits every week of any NFL season. Even in weeks that we have gone 4-1 or 5-0 ATS the results remind us that this is a grind, and that the success of any season is not dependent on one single week. I know all of you are quite used to my nagging (for very good reasons) and that discipline is the key. So, do not attempt to use this game to win back the losses over the weekend and at the same time, do not ever bet the profits made over the weekend on a MNF game. Betting on underdogs that are facing a team that committed three or more turnovers in their previous game and has a defense that averages one or fewer turnovers per game on the season has earned an outstanding 33-32-1 SU record and a highly profitable 46-16-4 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is playing in a non-conference game, they soar to a 12-6-1 record and 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Here is the clincher, if our dog is playing on the road has produced a 9-3-1 SU record and a near-perfect 11-1-1 ATS mark good for 92% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, we learn that the Packers are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS when gaining 100 or more rushing yards and forcing two or more opponent turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. |
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10-09-23 | Phillies +142 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Truist Park, Atlanta, GA 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line As we did in the historic Game 1 win by the Phillies, consider betting 5.5 units on the money line and 2.5 units on the +1.5-run line. The expectations for this Game 2 of the NLDS is that the Braves are too good not to bounce back with a ‘must-win’ performance tonight. However, the Braves Achilles heel was revealed in game 1 as their production has dropped significantly when facing power hurlers averaging 97+ MPH. Zack Wheeler is one of them and he is pitching tremendous baseball right and he is a priced as a dog. Wheeler is 12-8 in 28 career starts against the Braves with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.187 WHIP. The Braves will start Max Fried, who has been battling nagging injuries and is 4-4 in 14 career starts against the Phillies with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.432 WHIP. For his career, Wheeler is 6-6 averaging a 170-underdog bet and earning a 32% ROI when priced as a +150 and greater underdog. Every start has been on the road. For this season, he has gone 14-6 in 33 starts with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.062 WHIP including 220 strikeouts and just 39 walks spanning 198 2/3 innings of work. In 17 road starts he has been even better with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.042 WHIP including 115 strikeouts and just 20 walks and allowed just 7 home runs spanning 102 2/3 innings of work. Of all starters with 450 or more batted ball events, Wheeler is tied with Corbin Burnes for the MLB best 3.4% barrels per plate appearance. This means that only three batters ever get credit with hitting the ball on the sweet spot or barrel of the bat. So, for every 27 batters Wheeler faces will square up the barrel of the bat on one of his deliveries. That is remarkable and that is the elixir that gives the Braves nightmares. Wheeler ranks third in MLB with an 11.9% hard-hit percentage of pitches thrown 95 or more MPH and third with an average exit velocity of just 86.9 MPH. Fried has not had enough batted ball events to be part of that list. He is an excellent starter and will throw fastball 45%, 12% slider, 17% change (used mostly to RH batters), and curve 26%. He does have one of the best curve balls in the game and largely because of the very high spin rate that averages 2800 MPH. At that high of a spin rate, makes it difficult for any batter to identify. However, that pitch starts a bit higher out of the release than his fastball and that will help Phillies batters. You can bet that he will throw that pitch a lot to the LH batters such as Schwarber and Harper tonight. Betting on road underdogs coming off a an upset win over a divisional rival and is now starting a pitcher that has allowed no more than a single earned run in each of his last two outings has earned a highly profitable 26-20 for 57%, but has averaged a +152 wager and earning a 41% ROI in games bet over the past 5 seasons. If our road warrior is priced as a +140 and higher dog, they soar to a remarkable 16-11 record averaging a 175 wager and earning a 61% ROI over the past five seasons.
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers
4:25 EST
8-Unit best Bet on the Cowboys plus the points Let’s get right to the point of this play and reveal a betting algorithm that earned a highly profitable 29-8-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and has covered the spread by an average of The requirements are to bet on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their four previous games and facing a foe that has forced no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games. If our team is on the road the results improve to a remarkable 18-13 SU and 25-5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams that are facing a host that is gaining 1.75 or more yards per pass than their opponents and coming off two consecutive games in which they gained 6.75 or more yards per pass has earned a 29-26 SU record and 35-17-3 ATS mar good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, the Cowboys are 93-13 SU and 85-19-2 ASTS when gaining at least 125 rushing yards and forcing 2 or more turnovers and 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winners over the past five seasons. |
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10-08-23 | Jets +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Denver Broncos
4:05 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the NY Jets plus the points Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s and with the host coming off two straight road tilts and with the game occurring between weeks 5 and 8 have gone 38-17 SU and 36-16-3 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s, has covered the spread in just one of the previous three games, in a matchup of losing record teams, and with the host coming of two straight road games have gone 23-13 SU and 22-12-4 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, the Broncos are just 13-25-1 SU and 5-33-1 ATS when allowing 24 or more points and allowing 5.5 or more YPPL. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Eagles vs Rams
4:05 PM EST, 10/8
The Eagles offense has not been in sync for an entire game, yet they have scored points in every quarter of their 4-0 start, except the second quarter in Week 1 against the Patriots. Teams that have scored in 15 or 16 of the quarters played spanning their last four games, priced as a road favorite, and facing a non-divisional foe have gone 16-16 SU, 9-22-1 ATS for 29%, and a solid 20-12 Over record for 63% winning bets. |
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10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons -2 | Top | 19-21 | Push | 0 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons -2.5 points The following betting algorithm has earned a 36-15 SU record (71%) and a 36-12-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on a team that has not covered the spread in three consecutive games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in three consecutive games and priced between the 3’s. Drilling further down into the database, if the total in these games was 45 or fewer points, these teams went 17-5 SU (77%), 16-4-2 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team scored first in the contest, they went on to a 10-0 SU and ATS record and covered the spread by an average of 9 PPG. |
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10-08-23 | Giants +13 v. Dolphins | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the Giants plus the points I know I will hear many moans on this one as we are backing a team that finds ways to play poorly in critical situations and find ways to lose games. Remember, I am betting on situations and not the mascot, and not if the team looked great or horrid in their previous game. That also applies to the great recent play by the Dolphins, who are on the precipice of regression too. The following betting system underscores the regression, and that the Dolphins recent offensive prowess is unsustainable. The algorithm has gone 19-12 SU, but 5-24-2 ATS for 17%, and the Under has gone 21-9-1 for 70% winning bets. The requirements are to bet on underdogs in a non-divisional frey that are facing a team that has averaged 450 or more yards of total offense over their last three games and has averaged 6 or more YPPL on the season. If the matchup is a non-conference one, these dogs have chewed mercilessly on these false favorites to the tune of 9-4 SU record and a near-perfect 10-1-2 ATS mark since 2017. The clincher, if we even needed one, is the fact that if our dog is priced at 4 or more points, they have gone on to a 5-3 SU record and a perfect 7-0-1 ATS record. |
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10-07-23 | Georgia Tech v. Miami-FL -20 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Georgia Tech vs No. 17 Miami (FLA) 8:00 PM EST Betting on home favorites of 11.5 or more points in games with a posted total between 42.5 and 59.5 points and hosting a foe that is fresh off a humiliating loss of 17 or more points as a home favorite of 10 or more points have earned an outstanding 47-4 SU record and a 37-13-1 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and 36-1 SU and 27-9-1 ATS since 2006. If this game is a matchup of conference foes, the favorite has gone 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets. From the predictive model, we are expecting the Hurricanes to score 35 or more points and when they have in home games have earned a highly profitable 4-0 SU and ATS and covering the number by an average of 9 PPG under current head coach Mario Cristobal. |
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10-07-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
10-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies as prescribed at the end of the report or on the +1.5 run line. A Pair of NL East Divisional rivals square off to play a best-of-five series to determine, who will advance to the NLCS starting Saturday at 6:00 PM EST at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. The weather at game time is expected to be 63 degrees with wind gusts up to 20 MPH out of the northwest throughout the game. The relative humidity will be extremely low at 25% so overall great weather for a baseball game. This season, the NL East division was dominated once again by the Braves, who went 104-58 averaging a -165 wager, but earning only a 1.5% ROI. The Phillies earned the top wild card berth by way of a 92-72 record averaging a -121 wager but producing a -1.7% ROI. The scant ROI’s for both teams is a reflection of how well the market priced these teams over a 162-game season. The Braves played exceptional ball at Truist Park sporting a 52-29 record averaging a -184 bet, but a money losing -1.5% ROI. The Phillies played consistent baseball on the road going 41-40 averaging a -105 wager, but a money-losing 5% ROI. The Weather Forecast for Game 1The wind will be blowing out to left field and may be a factor for balls hit very high. The stadium, is quite high behind home plate and extends down both the first and third base sides and shields the wind from the playing surface. So, the wind may not be a huge factor contributing to home runs being hit tonight. The setting sun will only be a problem for fans sitting on the third base side for about the first 45 minutes of the game. The Phillies Are the Team No Franchise Wants to FaceThe Phillies have a tremendous team chemistry that has shown all season with every player celebrating any other’s great play on the field. There are no egos on this team and is a tribute to skipper Rob Thomson and the leadership on and off the field by veterans in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and others. They have no fear whatsoever playing on the road against the Braves, who will have to be at their best if they want to hold home field and advance to play in the NLCS. The Phillies ace, Zack Wheeler, was dominant in Game 1 of their wild card sweep over the Miami Marlins. Then in Game 2, Aaron Nola was equally as dominating, but it created somewhat of an issue for the brain trust to decide the pitching rotation for this series knowing the Braves would have their best rotation in place starter with Spencer Strider. So, it was not surprising to see the Phillies elect to start left-hander Ranger Suarez for Game 1, who went just 4-6 in 22 starts with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.416 WHIP including 119 strikeouts and 48 walks over 125 innings of work. He is a craft left-handed pitcher with a wide array and variation of pitches he uses to keep batters guessing. He uses a heavy late-sinking fastball about 50% of the time then mixes in a cutter 15%, change 18%, and curve 17%. His change is exceptional and used mostly against right-handed batters, but he will use it occasionally to left-handed batters. His fastball will top out at 95 MPH and average 93 MPH. His curve will have big-time late breaking movement attributed to a spin rate around 2,100 RPM. All of his pitches average about 2,000 RPM and that consistency make it tough for batters to identify what pitch is coming their way. Spencer Strider had a tremendous season posting a 20-5 record in 32 starts including a league-high 281 strike outs spanning 186 2/3 innings of work. He made 11 starts in which he struck out 10 or more batters, but the Phillies, as a team, are one of the most disciplined in MLB. Three of his five losses occurred at Truist Park where he went 8-3 in 16 starts with a mediocre 4.35 ERA and a 1.032 WHIP including 153 strikeouts over 93 innings of work. The biggest fact that the Phillies must overcome is that he went 11-0 in 12 starts against divisional foes with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.064 WHIP including 102 strikeouts over 73 1/3 innings of work. The biggest advantage the Phillies have is their bullpen and the scheduling of this series, which includes three days off allowing for even greater rest and managerial options. Their bullpen is the best of the remaining teams in the playoffs and have posted a 1.33 ERA and a 0.852 WHIP including 36 strikeouts and just six walks over their seven games spanning 27 innings of work. The Situational Betting Algorithm for Game 1The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 68-27 record for 72% winning bets averaging a -108 wager and earning a 55% ROI in games played over the past 25 regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams who are facing a NL foe that is starting a pitcher with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 and following a game in which their bullpen allowed 5 or more runs. Now, the fact that the last game the Braves played was meaningless does diminish that parameter of the algorithm so let’s substitute another game parameter for it. In the playoffs, road dogs of 125 and higher and facing a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 have gone a quite impressive 29-26 for 53%, but by averaging a +155 wager have earned a highly profitable 28% ROI. Last, teams that won their previous game by 5 or more runs to close out a series are 8-7 averaging a +140 wager and a 29.5% ROI and a remarkable 11-3 on the +1.5-run line earning and 35% ROI. My best bet for Game 1 is on the Phillies by placing a 6-Unit amount on the +1.5 run line and a 4-Unit amount using the money line as offered at DraftKings. Player Props for this GameSpencer Strider OVER 1,5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 Total: +965 |
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10-07-23 | Vanderbilt v. Florida -17.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Vanderbilt vs Florida
8-Unit best bet on the Florida Gators minus the points
4:00 EST SECN Betting on conference favorites between 13.5 and 19.5 points that are playing with revenge from a last season loss priced as a double-digit favorite and taking on a foe that is fresh off a loss priced as a dog have gone a highly profitable 31-4 SU and 25-10 ATS for 71.4% winning bets over the past 25 seasons of action and 6-2 ASTS over the past five seasons. Florida is 16-3-1 ATS in home games when facing a poor rushing team that is gaining an average of just 120 or fewer yards per game. Vanderbilt is 0-6 ATS this season and 13-35 ATS following a game in which they have allowed 325 or more passing yards. Road conference dogs are just 18-29-3 ATS for 38% if they have lost 6 or more consecutive games to the spread, lost 4 or more consecutive games SU and have two or fewer wins on the season.
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10-07-23 | Washington State v. UCLA -3 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Washington State vs UCLA
3:00 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on UCLA minus the 3.5 points Again, consider betting 5.5 units preflop on UCLA and then look to get 1.5 more units on UCLA at Pick-em and then 1-Unit at +2.5. This game has a total of 60+ points and the scoring volatility is coming to be quite high so let it work in your favor. Unranked home favorites facing a conference foe that is ranked 10th to 25th in the current poll and with a game total between 52.5 and 65 points have gone 31-20 ATS for 61% winners. |
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10-07-23 | LSU -5.5 v. Missouri | Top | 49-39 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
LSU vs Missouri
Noon PM EST, 10/7
Consider betting 6-units preflop on the Tigers and then look for Missouri to score the first TD of the game and get the remaining 2-units on the Tigers at pick-em or as close to pick-em as possible. Here is a situational betting algorithm that has produced a 41-14 SU record and am32-21-2 ATS record for 61% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and is 8-3 ATS over the past seven seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites in a conference matchup that are ranked lower in the current AP poll. LSU is 23rd while undefeated Missouri is 21st. if our team is coming off a loss, they soar to 13-5-2 ATS for 72% winning bets and if they scored 27 or more points in that loss are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS LSU has two losses and Missouri has none, but LSU has played a much more difficult schedule. You may recall we had Ole Miss as a 10-UNIT MAX Bet winner over LSU last week and with the other loss taking place in Week 1 over highly ranked FSU. There have been reports of player descension in the locker room over head coach Kelly. I do not put much weight in the handicapping of this game, because at the end of the day, many of the players in that locker room have much bigger goals of playing in the NFL. |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma v. Texas -4.5 | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Oklahoma vs Texas
Noon EST, October 7, Week 6
8-Unit best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the points Betting on teams that have won 80% or more of their games and facing a foe that has covered the spread by 49 or more points spanning their last five games and also has won 80% or more of their games on the season has produced a highly profitable 29-13-3 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Teams, like Texas, who they and their current foe in week 6 action has no more than one loss and with that foe having covered the spread by 42 or more points over their first five games has gone 9-4-1 ATS for 69% winning bets. Also, teams, like Texas, who are coming off a game in which they gained 300 or more rushing and 300 or more passing yards in their previous game have gone 96-29 (77%) and 71-52-2 ATS for 58% winning bets. If facing an undefeated conference foe has gone 6-1 SU and ATS for 86% winning bets. In the red river rivalry, Texas is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS for 82% winners when scoring 31 or more points and the predictive model shows an 84% probability that Texas will score 31 or more points. Even if they score 28 or more points, Texas has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS for 85% winners. |
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10-07-23 | Western Michigan v. Mississippi State -21 | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Western Michigan vs Mississippi State
Noon EST, Saturday
8-Unit best bet on Mississippi State minus the points Betting on favorites between 16 and 24.5 points and with a total between 48 and 61.5 points that are coming off a terrible loss of 20 or more points to a conference foe priced as an underdog and with the game occurring during the regular season have gone 59-2 SU, 45-16 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past 22 seasons. The total of 57 points and State being favored by 20 points implies a State 38.5-18.5 point win. The predictive model shows an 82% probability that State will score at least 31 points and in past games in which they have done this, they have gone 40-6 SU and 36-9 ATS for 80% winning bets and if on the road facing a non-conference foe has produced a 17-1 SU record and a 13-5 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets. |
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10-06-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State +11.5 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Kansas State vs Oklahoma State
7:30 PM EST, 10/6
plus 11.5 points.
Here is a situational betting algorithm that has produced a 33-45 SU record and a 47-25-6 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and is 10-1 ATS over the past three seasons. The requirements are to bet on a team that has a struggling defense that is allowing between 5.6 and 6.25 YPPL and is facing a team that has a solid offensive unit gaining at least 6.2 YPPL and has a defense that allowed 6.75 YPPL in each of their last two games. Over the past three seasons this algorithm has produced an 8-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets. |
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10-05-23 | Bears +6.5 v. Commanders | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders 8:15 PM EST, 10/5 Prime Telecast Certainly not a ‘sexy matchup’, but the analytics clearly point to a contrarian bet on the Bears plus the 5.5 points. Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are allowing an average of 28 or more points per game on the season have gone 47-89 SU (65.6%), 88-46-3 ATS (65.7%) over the past 10 seasons of action. If our road warrior underdog is facing a host coming off a home loss, they soar to 6-10 SU, and 12-4 ATS for 75% winners over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams after allowing 6.75 or more YPPA in four consecutive games and now facing a foe that is coming off a game in which they allowed 8 or more YPPA has yielded a 35-31-1 SU record and 48-19 ATS for 72% winning bets since 1989. If in a non-divisional matchup, these dogs soar to 22-22-1 SU and 32-13 ATS for 71.1% winning bets over the past 34 seasons and has had just 3 seasons losing money. Here is a second betting algorithm that ash done quite well earning a 26-19 SU record and 29-14-2 ATS mark good for 67.4% winning bets over the past 34 seasons. The requirements are to bet on dogs of six or fewer points that are coming off a loss in which the game played Over the total and with that dog having more penalties then incomplete passes. |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech +6 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA 8:00 EST, October 5 8-Unit Best Bet on the LT Bulldogs plus the points It is Thursday and we have two games scheduled in the C-USA. The Bulldogs are coming off a 24-10 win featuring a punt return for a TD over UTEP. JAX State won lasty night as an 8-Unit Best bet over Middle Tennessee State and leads the conference with a 3-0 record. The Bulldogs are 2-0 and W. Kentucky is 1-0 in conference play, so barring a tie, one of these teams will join the conference unbeaten ranks. Betting on home underdogs ranging from 3.5 to 9.5 points that is coming off a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and facing a foe that has won the turnover battle in their past two games has earned a highly profitable 13-16 SU record and a 19-7-3 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bulldogs head coach Sonny Cumbie is on a 6-0 ASTS run when playing on the road for the second consecutive week. From the predictive mode, we are expecting the bulldogs to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers and when they have met these measures has produced a 74-14 SU record and 64-22-2 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets and when priced as a home pup has produced a 3-6 SU mark and a near-perfect 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets. |
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10-04-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -151 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Wednesday, October 4, 2023 MLB Playoffs | Wild Card Round Marlins vs Phillies MLB 10-UNIT BEST BET Titan on the Phillies using the money line Consider betting 7.5-Units on the money line pre-flop and then look to add the remaining 2.5 units if the Marlins score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of action. OR Place 7 units on the money line pre-flop because they are priced as a -150 money line favorite and then look for Miami to score first or possibly retake the lead over the first three innings and add the 3-units on the -1.5 run line, which would be at least +150 in this situation. Phillies have won many games coming from behind late in the games this season. In fact, they have won 18 games ranking second most being tied or down no more than 2 runs entering the 9th inning. Moreover, when the game was home at Citizens’ Bank Park, the Phillies won 9 games tied for most comeback wins with the Tampa Bay Rays. In home games this season, the Phillies posted the best record at 25-21 when the foe scored first in the game. Aaron Nola has had an up and down type of season, but he has pitched well down the stretch. Over his last three starts he has posted a 2.60 ERA and a 1.038 WHIP with just one walk allowed and striking out 17 batters over 17 1/3 innings of work. He has allowed 32 home runs on the season, but just one over his last three starts and three over his last six starts. Earlier this year starting in late April he went 11 consecutive starts allowing at least one home run. So, don’t count on any starter’s season-to-date stats to have significant meaning in the playoffs rounds. Braxton Garrett is a lefty and will start the game for the Marlins. The Phillies line up scored almost a run less versus LH starters than RH starters on the season, but they also averaged a bit more than the average NL team when facing a LH starter. Garrett throws a fastball with solid sinking action about 40% of the time and then adds a slurve (sweeper) about 42% and then the remaining 18% is the change thrown almost exclusively to RH starters and a curve to LH batters. His spin rates are average or slightly below average for a MLB pitcher and the Phillies are a disciplined hitting team overall. The best eye on the team is their leadoff slugger Kyle Schwarber and he will look to get a maximum number of pitches thrown before he reaches base or records an out. Patience on the first pitch will be key IMO. Garrett has allowed a terrible 45% hard hit percentage. Nola just 38%. Garrett has recorded a 0.272 expected batting average as compared to Nola’s 0.241. Last, the Phillies bullpen is completely rested, and this is by far the biggest advantage they have tonight. For the season the relievers have posted a 3.53 ERA and a 1.265 WHIP spanning 545 innings of work including 592 strikeouts. Over the past 7 games, the unit has posted a 1.27 ERA and a 0.912 WHIP with 37 strikeouts over 28 1/3 innings of work. The Marlines pen has thrown 80 innings more than the Phillies posting a 4.39 ERA and a 1.352 WHIP. Player Props for this Game1. Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet 2. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 3. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 Total: +515 |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State +3.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee State Thursday, October 5 8-Unit best bet on Jacksonville State plus the points Betting on a team that is coming off a game that soared over the total by at least 21 points, is a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points, in the first 7 weeks of the regular season, and has won 70% or more of their games has earned a solid 27-15-2 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. MTST head coach Stockstill is 1-12 ATS when facing a team with a turnover margin of 1 or better per game. From the predictive model, we are looking for JST to score 24 or more points and to commit the same or fewer turnovers. MTST is 8-21 and 5-24 ATS for 17% when allowing 24 or more points in home games and have the same or more turnovers. |
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10-03-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -142 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies 8:00 PM EST, October 3, 2023 Betting on NL home teams using the money line that are averaging 1.30 or more home runs per game and have batted .250 or lower spanning their last 20 games has earned a 77-31 record for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. Zack Wheeler will be on the hill tonight and he is 10-4 in 22 career starts against the Marlins with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.040 WHIP. He has allowed three or fewer ER in all but two of those 22 starts and allowed 6 ER in three starts spanning 18 innings. In 32 starts this season, Wheeler has posted a 13-6 record with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.073 WHIP including 212 strikeouts, just 39 BB over 192 inning of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 2.65 ERA and a 1.118 ERA with 16 K’s and 4 BB spanning 17 innings. Wheeler has a great fastball that he can vary between a 97 MPH with late-breaking arm side movement that rides onto the hands of a RH batter to a fastball with heavy sinking action that averages 95 to 98 MPH. That pair of fastballs account for 62% of his pitches and then throws a knee buckling slider that averages 90 MPH and a curve that averages 81 MPH. His spins rates are quite high and among the best in MLB with FB averaging 2500 RPM, slider 2675 RPM, and the curve an amazing 2750 RPM. The high spin rates make the ball ‘tight’ and nearly impossible for the batters to identify which pitch he has thrown. Jesus Lazardo takes the ball for game 1 and has average to below average spin rates and is facing one of the best and hardest hitting lineups in the NL. The Phillies have 8 batters averaging 42% and higher hard hit ball percentages and 7 of them are starters led by Kyle Schwarber, who is averaging 49% hard hit with a 92.4 average exit velocity. Here are a few Player Props and I do not recommend more than 1-unit on these throughout the playoffs. Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel |
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10-03-23 | Blue Jays +108 v. Twins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
Tuesday, October 3, 2023 MLB Playoffs | Wild Card Round Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins 8-Unit best bet on the on the Blue Jays using the money line Game 1 of the MLB Wild Card playoffs are set and this is game 1 between the Blue Jays and the Twins set to take place at Target Field in Minneapolis, MN with the first pitch scheduled for 4:30 PM EST. This game is televised on ESPN. In the Wild Card round, betting on teams that are priced between a -130 favorite and +130 underdog that won more games than their foe during the regular season has earned an outstanding 27-7 for 79% averaging a -102 money line and earning a highly profitable 60% ROI over the last 20 seasons when there were three game series. Kevin Gausman is penciled in for the Blue Jays and is coming off another solid season going 12-9 in 31 starts with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.178 WHIP including 237 strikeouts spanning 185 innings of work. Over his last three starts he posted a 2.04 ERA and 1.302 WHIP including 20 strikeouts and 17 2/3 innings of work. He made 15 starts and went 5-3 with a sparkling 2.58 ERA and a 1.136 WHIP including 116 strikeouts over 90 2/3 innings of work. Pablo Lopez will on the hill for the Twins and he has posted weak number recently with a 6.46 ERA and a 1.305 WHIP including 21 strikeouts over his last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings of work. Currently 72% of the tickets, but just 49% of the money is being bet on the Twins and this reflects larger bets being made on the Blue Jays. Twins are 7-17 on the money line in games with a posted total of 7 or 7.5 runs this season. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Seattle Seahawks vs NY Giants MetLife Stadium 8-Unit best bet on the Giants getting the 2-points The Giants remained on the west coast after their historic come from behind win over the Arizona Cardinals to prepare for one of the best teams in the NFL, the 49ers, and on a short week. They lost that game, but were quite competitive during the first half, and are not fully rested for this game tonight at home. Betting on teams that has not covered the spread in their last three games and taking on a foe that has covered their last three games and with the price between a 3-point favorite and underdog has produced a 30-13 SU record and a 30-10-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets over the past 8 years (since start of the 2015 season). Betting on Underdogs that are struggling to gain yards in the passing game averaging 5.5 or fewer YPPA, is coming of a game where their defense allowed 8 or more YPPA, and now facing a foe that struggles to stop the pass allowing an average of 7.25 or more YPPA has produced a 42-19 ATS record for 69% winning bets. If our team is a home dog, they have soared to a money-making 18-7 ASTS for 72% winning bets. The Giants QB, Daniel Jones is an inconsistent one and many others would say he is downright terrible, but this is a matchup ladies and gentlemen that he has the potential to shine brightly. This is a must-win game for the Giants to say within distance of the undefeated Eagles and one-loss Cowboys in the NFC East division. They lost their first two prime time games by a combined score of 70-12 and failed to cover the spread by a combined 44 points. So, they are rested, fully prepared, and I do expect them to put out their best effort of the season. The predictive model tells us that the Giants when playing at home and scoring 23 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers then the foe has produced a 77-11 SU record (88%) and a 68-19-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets. |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 53.5 | Top | 20-48 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Dolphins vs Bills 8-Unit Best Bet on the Under 53.5 points The total for this game is priced at 53.5 points. So, scoring volatility is expected to be high. My suggested strategy is to bet 5.5 units preflop and then if the game starts out fast on the scoreboard add 1.5 units at 56.5 points and then 1 unit at 58.5 points. Betting on teams with a total of 45 or more points and facing a foe that scored double digits in each quarter of their previous game has produced a 8-7 SU record, 10-5 ATS and 11-4 UNDER. The Dolphins scored 14 points in each of the first and third quarters and 21 points in the second and fourth quarters in last week’s historic 70-point offensive explosion. Betting on a road team facing a divisional foe and having seen the total play over by at least 24 points over their last three games has produced a 43-17-1 Under record for 72% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. If our road team saw their last three games play Over by 27 or more points has produced a 39-14-1 Under record for 74% winners spanning the last 25 seasons. Last, if that last three game total played over by 38 or more points, the Under has gone a highly profitable 23-5-1 for 83% winners spanning the past 25 seasons. |
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10-01-23 | Steelers v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Steelers vs Texans 8-Unit Best Bet on the Texans plus the points Betting on underdogs of not more than 7.5 points that are facing a foe that won their last two games in the previous season, but missed the playoffs, and with the current game taking place in the first four weeks of the current season has produced a 13-5 ATS mark for 72% winning bets since 2018. |
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10-01-23 | Ravens +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Ravens vs Browns 8-Unit Best Bet on the Ravens plus the 2.5 points 5-Unit Best Bet on the Over 38.5 points For the Over bet I like making 2.5 units on the Over preflop and then given that these are divisional foes from a gritty and defensive-minded AFC North, look for a low scoring first quarter and to add 2.5 units to the Over at a price of 34.5 or fewer points.
Betting on a team priced between the 4’s (4-point favorite to a 4-point underdog) that is coming off a loss (Ravens) by three or fewer points and facing a foe that allowed 6 or fewer points to their previous foe has earned a 36-18 ATS record for 67% winning bets and also produced a solid 37-14-3 OVER record for 73% winning bets |
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10-01-23 | Vikings -5 v. Panthers | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Minnesota vs Carolina 8-Unit Best Bet on the Vikings minus the 4.5 points Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the Vikings and then during the first half look for -1.5 or bet the money line when the price is at -1.5 points. Betting on favorites including pick-em that are scoring an average of 23.5 to 27 PPG, is coming off two straight games in which they and their foes combined for 50 or more points in each game and facing a foe that is allowing between 23.5 and 27 PPG has produced a 61-32-3 ATS record for 65.6% winning bets since 2010. |
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10-01-23 | Commanders +9 v. Eagles | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Commanders vs Eagles 8-Unit Best Bet on the Commanders plus the 9 points. Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and 10 points that are scoring at least 28 PPG have gone 80-37-4 ATS for 68.4% winning bets since 2015. If a divisional matchup, the record soars to 34-10-1 ATS for 77% winning bets and if a divisional matchup facing an undefeated foe, the record is 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets since 2015. |
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10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 55 m | Show |
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons Wembley Stadium, London 8-Unit best bet on the Jaguars -3 -115 and is the worst line I see right now. I do not believe the lines makers are going to move off of 3-points and instead raise the vig to -120 if necessary. If your book(s) have -3.5, then consider betting 5-unit preflop and then look to get 3 more units at pick-em or better during the first half of action (preferably the first quarter) Intuitively, I am just not seeing why the Jaguars are not priced closer to 6 points and the reason is not due to their dreadful loss to the Texans last week at home. We were on the Texans and never saw a blowout win by the Texans, but I thought they had a shot at it. I am not sold on Ritter being a solid NFL quarterback and the offense ranks 26th in the league and a worse 29th in passing offense. The Jaguar’s defense is an average one by NFL standards and certainly much better than the Falcons offense. Plus, this is the Jaguars second home field and a serious advantage given the travel itinerary and logistics involved in getting to London and then situated comfortably. The Jaguars have played in London five times since 2015 and are 4-1 SUATS. The Jaguars are 22-12-2 ATS for 65% winners from week 4 on out and facing a passing defense allowing an average 175 or fewer yards per game. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Jaguars to score 22 or more points and out gain the Falcons by at least 1.0 yards per play. In past games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these performance measures has led to a highly profitable 42-8 SU record and 39-10-1 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. |
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09-30-23 | Notre Dame v. Duke +5.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Notre Dame vs Duke Wallace Wade Stadium 7:30 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Duke plus the 5.5 points In Week 1, we nailed Duke in their upset win over Clemson and here they are again poised to pull off an even bigger upset against a ranked Notre Dame team, who lost on the play of the game last week in South Bend over the Ohio State Buckeyes. So, betting on home dogs between 3 and 10 points in a matchup of two teams that out rush their opponents by 60 or more YPG have gone 26-22 SU and 35-11 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the foe is a Top-25 ranked team, the record of these live dogs soars to 18-9 SU and 22-4-1 ATS for 85% winning bets. Make no mistake about it, Duke has an excellent defense that can cause major problems for the Irish offense. The Irish are 11-26 ATS when facing a team, whose defense allows an average of 285 or fewer YPG; 14-34 ATS when facing a defense that allows 4.5 or fewer yards per play. Duke is on a 12-2 ATS win streak in games played on a grass field; 7-0 ASTS following a game in which they outgained the foe by 125 or more total yards; 10-1 ATS in home games played in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. |
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09-30-23 | LSU v. Ole Miss +2.5 | Top | 49-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
LSU vs Ole Miss 10-UNIT Best Bet on Ole Miss plus the points 6:00 PM EST Let’s start with some analytics. Betting on home underdogs whose defense allows between 330 and 390 yards per game and facing a foe that averages 440 or more YPG and is coming off a game in which they allowed 6.25 or more YPPL have gone 85-41-2 ATS for 68% winning best over the past 25 seasons. Ole Miss is 43-23 ATS when facing very good offenses averaging 34 or more PPG; 26-12-1 ATS in home games following two straight games in which they forced no more than one turnover in each game. Betting on home underdogs using the money line that is an elite passing team gaining an average of 8.3 PYPA after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game and now facing a foe that is an average passing defense allowing 6.5 to 7.5 PYPA has earned a highly profitable 17-10 record for 62% winners averaging a +275 wager earning a 110% ROI over the past 10 seasons. Betting on home teams using the money line in September that are facing a foe that is coming off a win by 7 or fewer points over a conference rival has gone 134-63-2 SU for 68% winners and 60-17 SU for 78% winners over the past 10 seasons. If in a conference matchup, our home team has gone 15-3 SU for 83% winning bets. |
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09-30-23 | Kansas v. Texas -16 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
No. 24 Kansas vs No. 3 Texas DKR – Texas Memorial Stadium 3:30 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 16 points Kansas head coach Leipold is just 1-10 ATS in road games after out rushing their previous foe by at least 125 yards. Texas head coach Sarkisian is 6-0 ATS in home games following back-to-back games in which his defense no more than one turnover in each game. From the predictive model, we are looking for Texas to out gain Kansas by at least 2 YPPL and or score. In past games in which Texas accomplished this has seen them go 25-1 SU and 19-7 ATS for 73% winners when at home and priced as a double-digit favorite. |
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09-30-23 | Clemson v. Syracuse +7 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Clemson vs Syracuse Noon EST 8-UNIT best bet on Syracuse plus the points and sprinkle the money line The Tigers are 2-11 ATS (15%) in the first 4 weeks last three seasons The Orange is 12-3 SU, 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in the first 4 weeks last three seasons The Orange is 44-23 SU, 43-24 ATS (64%) in home games after covering the spread in 2 of their last 3 since 1980 The Orange is 11-3 SU, 10-3-1 ATS (77%) in second straight home game since 2019 The Orange is 20-22 SU, 27-15 ATS (64%) after outgaining the previous foe by more than 100 yards 12-5 SU and ATS if the game is at home Dino Babers is 20-10 Under (67%) when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by >=10 PPG (potential defensive battle) Coach Babers is 6-11 SU, 11-6 ATS, 13-4 Under (76%) when taking on a foe that allows 3 or fewer yards per rush Dabo Swinney is 2-6 SU in road games after a game in which the forced zero turnovers Coach Babers is 10-3 SU following back-to-back games gaining >=6.25 or more YPPL
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09-30-23 | Penn State -26 v. Northwestern | Top | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Week 5: No. 6 Penn State vs Northwestern
Noon EST, 9-30
8-Unit Best Bet on Penn State -27 points and is good up to 29.5
8-Unit best bet Over the posted total of 47 points OR (Not Both) Over the team total for PSU 36.5 points OR 4-Units Over PSU team total and 4-UNITS OVER Game total Parlay is NOT recommended The undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions take to the road to take on the Big-Ten conference foe Northwestern Wildcats set to kickoff at Noon EST. Penn State is coming off an impressive, but largely unnoticed 31-0 dominating home win over the then-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes. After such a dominating win in which Penn State’s defense held Iowa to just four first downs, 56 passing yards and 26 rushing yards and outgained them by 321 total yards, they moved up one slot to No. 6 of the latest AP poll. That lack of attention is all the news info head coach James Franklin needs to motivate his team and avoid any minor letdown. I wrote prior to the season that I had made a bet at 38:1 that Texas would take on Penn State in the College Football Playoff game. Penn State ranks 15th scoring an average of 40.5 PPG and 5th-best allowing an average of just 8.8 PPG of the 133 Division-1 programs. Penn State is priced at +1600 and even now with a 4-0 record represents the biggest undervalued team on the board to win the National Championship at BetMGM.
Another futures bet I have made based on the value currently offered at DraftKings is on Penn State sophomore and 5-Star recruit Drew Allar at +3500 to win the Heisman. Through four games he has completed 67.2% of his passes for 903 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He is getting better with each game and although he is a dark horse to win the Heisman, if Penn State defeats Ohio State on the road and then Michigan at home, you can bet he will be one of the contenders. James Franklin has his best and most experienced offensive line and arguably the best unit in the Big Ten conference. The ground attack features last year’s Big Ten offensvie3 freshman of the year in Nicholas Singleton, who has 203 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Moreover, his running mate in the backfield returns in Kaytron Allen, who has 280 rushing yards and two touchdowns this season. Under head coach James Franklin is 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets in road games facing a conference foe and scoring 28 or more points.
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09-30-23 | Penn State v. Northwestern OVER 47.5 | Top | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
Week 5: No. 6 Penn State vs Northwestern Noon EST, 9-30
8-Unit best bet Over the posted total of 47 points OR (Not Both) Over the team total for PSU 36.5 points OR 4-Units Over PSU team total and 4-UNITS OVER Game total Parlay is NOT recommended |
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09-29-23 | Aces v. Wings +6.5 | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
Las Vegas Aces vs Dallas Wings
Friday 9:30 PM EST
8-Unit best Bet on the Wings plus the 6 points. From the predictive mode we are expecting the Wings to score 80 or more points and to out rebound the Aces by at least six offensive boards. Second chance scoring opportunities will favor the Wins and one of the dominant reasons I think they can win this game. In past games in which the Wings met or exceeded these measures has led them to a 23-19 record and 27-13-2 ATS and when priced as the underdog 10-15 SU, but 17-7-1 ATS for 71% winning bets. |
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09-29-23 | Padres v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
San Diego Padres vs CWS
7:40 PM EST
8-UNIT BEST BET on the Under currently priced at 8.5 runs Betting the UNDER with a total of 8.5 or more runs with a team averaging four or more walks-per-game and who have allowed three or fewer runs in each of their two previous games has earned a 132-77-5 Under record good for 63% winning bets since 2019. If that team is the home team, the record improves to 78-38-2 for 67% winning bets and if the game occurs in September or October has gone 9-4 Under for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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09-29-23 | Liberty -4 v. Sun | Top | 92-81 | Win | 100 | 32 h 23 m | Show |
Friday: WNBA
7:30 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on the Liberty minus the 4.5 points This five game series is tied a one game each and this is the critical Game 3 that pivots most series just as Game 5 in the NBA playoffs determines the winner most times in a tied series at 2 games apiece. We successful bet on the Sun and the first two games of this series, but not believe the market has overreacted and now making the Liberty a cheap road favorite. They are the better team overall. Betting on road favorites from game 15 on out to the end of the playoffs that have lost to the spread in five or more of their last 7 games and now find themselves priced as not more than 7.5 point favorites has gone 55-21 (72%) and 47-27-2 ATS for 64% winners. |
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09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Louisville vs NC State 7:00 EST, ESPN Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC 8-Unit best bet the Wolfpack plus the 3.5 points NC State is 3-1 on the season and has not covered the spread in any of those four games. Their lone loss was at the hands of Notre Dame in Week 2 losing 45-24. Louisville is 5-0 and 2-3 ATS on the season and this is the first of many major showdowns coming up in the ACC. Not to mention Syracuse tomorrow taking on Clemson, who already has two losses on the season. Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two solid rushing teams out gaining their foes by at least 60 YPG has earned an outstanding 26-22 record and 35-11 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2.5 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI 8:15 PM EST, September 28, 2023 | Prime Video 8-Unit best bet on the Packers +2 points Consider betting 6-Units on the Packers at +2 points preflop and then add 2-Units if Detroit is the first to score a touchdown. So, 7-0, 7-3, or 10-3 Lions’ leads during the first half of action only. Betting on dogs in games played in the first four weeks of the season, that failed to make the playoffs last season, and won their last two games of that season have gone 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons. If playing on a short week, the home team (Packers) have gone 4-1 ATS over the past 10 seasons. Creating a variation of this algorithm we learn that dogs in a divisional matchup that failed to make the playoffs in their previous, but did win their last two games of that season and with the current opportunity occurring in the first four weeks are 26-19 SU and 33-12 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Now, working against Detroit is the fact that teams that were not in the playoffs and won their final two games of the previous season and find themselves of no more than a 6.5 point favorite, playing in the first four weeks of the season are just 3-13 ATS and 6-10 SU over the past five seasons and 40-46 SU and 24-59-3 ATS for 29% over the past 20 seasons. Some 1-Unit max pizza money best bets: 1. Romeo Doubs +190 at DraftKings to score a TD 2. Jordan Love to complete 20 or more passes -125 at BetMGM 3. Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 7 catches +102 at Bet Rivers |
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09-28-23 | Temple +3.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 26-48 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Temple Owls vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, Oklahoma 7:30 EST, ESPN 8-Unit best bet on the Temple Owls plus the points, currently priced as 3.5-point underdogs in this AAC matchup. Owls head coach Stan Drayton has 16 returning starts from last year’s squad with 7 on offense including the quarterback and 9 on defense. Tulsa skipper Kevin Wilson is rebuilding with only four offensive and five defensive returning starters. Plus, he has an inexperienced quarterback. The Owl’s EJ Warner has completed just 54% of his passes and yet has thrown for 1000 passing yards. Despite Temple losing 41-7 last week to powerhouse Miami (Fla), Warner managed to throw for 240 yards including a touchdown. The Hurricane defense is more like a big breeze as compared to the strength and speed of the Miami Category 4 Hurricane defense. The predictive model shows us that Temple is 4-6 SU and 10-0 ATS when passing for 300 or more yards and scoring 27 or more points. |
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09-26-23 | Wings v. Aces UNDER 175.5 | Top | 84-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
WNBA: Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces Playoffs: 8-Unit best bet on the Under, currently priced at 175.5 points 8:00 PM EST Consider betting 6 units preflop of the market (Best available price you can get) and then look for the game to play a bit fast then expected in the first two quarters action and look for 182.5 points to add the remaining 2 units to the 8-Unit best bet opportunity. Betting the Under with a total of 140 points after game number 16, the home team has covered the spread in three of their last four games, has won at least 75% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team has seen the Under go 36-15 for 71% winning bets over the past 12 seasons. If the total is 160 or more points, the record has gone 20-10-1 Under for 67% winners and if above 170 points, the Under has gone 6-2 for 75% winning bets. If the total is 160 or more points and the road team has won 60% or more of their games, the record goes to 14-5 for 74% winning bets. |
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09-26-23 | Padres v. Giants +115 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants 9:45 PM EST, September 26, 2023 8-Unit best bet on the Giants using the money line.
Betting on home teams that have averaged fewer than 2.5 extra-base hits over their last 15 games and now facing a foe that has batted 0.300 or better over their last five games has produced an 87-56 record for 61% winning bets averaging a +115 underdog and earning a highly profitable 27% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. |
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09-26-23 | Sun +9.5 v. Liberty | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
WNBA: Connecticut Sun vs Ny Liberty
Playoffs: 8-Unit best bet on the Sun plus the 9 points and a sprinkle on the money line.
8:00 PM EST This is Game 2 of the WNBA semifinals that saw the Sun take the first game with an exciting 90-85 victory and easily covered the spread priced as 10.5-point underdogs. The Liberty have seen their last 5 games play Over the total and have won 10 of their last 11 games, but just 6-5 ATS. The Sun have won 8 of their past 12 games and have ha e covered seven of them with two pushes. Betting on road teams in the regular and playoff seasons with one day of rest that are engaged in a matchup of teams each averaging 76 points per game and with the home team coming off a loss of 15 or more points has earned an outstanding 27-24 SU record and 32-18-1 STS mark good for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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09-26-23 | Cubs v. Braves -129 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves 7:20 PM EST, Tuesday 9/26 8-Unit Best Bet on the Braves using the money line Consider betting 2.5 units on the run line and then 5.5 units on the money line. The Braves clinched the NL East division title for 6th consecutive year, and it does feel like it was accomplished months ago. They are still competing for the top seed in the playoffs and home field advantage throughout over the Dodgers. So, you do not have to be concerned about them mailing this one in on Tuesday. Betting on favorites between -140 and -195 using the money line that is scoring at least 4.5 RPG, is averaging 1.5 or more home runs per game, and facing a NL foe starting a pitcher with a 3.70 ERA has produced a 33-11 record good for 73% winning bets averaging a -158 wager and earning a 30% ROI over the past 15 seasons. Justin Steele will be on the hill for the Cubs and is not in good form especially having to face by far the best offense in baseball. He has posted a 4.31 ERA and a 1.437 WHIP including 2 walks and 17 strikeouts over his last three starts. Bryce Elder has not lost a start since August 15 and he is 12-4 in 30 starts with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. |
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09-26-23 | Rays v. Red Sox +119 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Boston 7:10 PM EST, September 26, 2023 8-Unit best bet on the Red Sox using the money line. The AL divisional race has been a great one, but now the Rays are 2.5 games back with just 5 games remaining on the schedule for the division-leading Baltimore Orioles, who have six games remaining. Realistically, the Rays are not going to sweep the Toronto Blue Jays, who they face in the final 3-games of the season. The Blue Jays are in the neck-to-neck race for the wire with the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners. I believe you will see the Rays get their starting pitching set for their first-round matchup against the Minnesota Twins. This two-games series marks the final home games at Fenway Park, which will be sold out. The Red Sox have had a successful season despite not making into the postseason. Remember, they were not expected to win more than 70 games and sentiment was more focused on if they would lose 100 or more games. They certainly overachieved and the fans will up for fan appreciation celebrations in these two games. Betting on teams that are on an excellent fielding streak that have gone 10 consecutive games committing no more than a single error in any of them and has a well-rested bullpen that has thrown three or fewer inning over their last two games has earned a 69-42 record. If our home team is priced between a -125 favorite and a 125 dog, their record improves to 17-6 averaging a 45% ROI and 45% Roi over the past five seasons. |
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09-25-23 | Astros +115 v. Mariners | Top | 5-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners 8-Unit best bet on the Astros using the money line What a great finish we have going on in MLB and the AL West is certainly center stage with three teams competing for divisional crowns and wild card berths not to mention their playoff lives. The Mariners really were not liked by the schedulers having to play the Rangers in Arlington over the weekend and they, as I had predicted, lost all of the games. Tie-breakers will come to the forefront this week as well. Check out this betting algorithm that has produced a terrific 44-19 record good for 70% winning bets averaging a +121 underdog and earning a 48% ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams that are facing a team fresh off a three-game losing sweep to a divisional foe and has won between 50 and 55% of their games on the season. If the game occurs after the all-star break the record for these road teams improves to 19-12 averaging a +133 wager and earning a 38% ROI. If the occurs in the month of September has produced a sensational 11-5 record averaging a +129 wager and earning a 58% ROI. |
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09-25-23 | Rams +2 v. Bengals | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals 8:20 PM EST, Week 3 10-Unit best bet on the Rams plus the points. My subscribers won another 10-UNIT MAX Best bet on the Alabama Crimson Tide who defeated Ole Miss Saturday bringing the 4+ year record to 59-27 for 69% winning bets across all sports. NFL 10-UNIT MAX Bets have hit 73% ATS over the past four years and this also means that these plays lose 27% of the time ATS. Over the course a season in any sport, they have a high probability of putting a lot more cash in your pocket than not. These plays are 4-0 this season in CFB and the NFL. The following betting algorithm has done quite well producing a 20-9-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 1993. Betting on road dogs of not more than 7 points that won six or fewer games in the previous season and is playing on Monday Night Football. If the total in these games is priced at fewer than 50 points, these dogs have gone 17-7-2 ATS for 71% winnig bets since 1993. If our dog won just 5 or fewer games in the previous season, they have gone 7-2-2 ATS for 78% winning bets since 1993. Here is a second betting algorithm that has produced a 62-62-1 record and an 84-63 SATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. and the requirements are to bet on road dogs in the first 8 weeks of the regular season that are facing a foe coming off at least one consecutive loss. If our road dog is priced at three or fewer points, they have gone to earn an outstanding 31-16 SU record and 32-12-3 STS mark good for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. From my predictive models, we are looking for the Rams to gain more than 100 rushing yards and to keep the Bengals under 100 rushing yards and for the Rams to have at least 33 minutes in top-of-possession. In games where they met or exceeded these measures has propelled them to a 11-1 SU record and a 9-2-1 ATS mark good for 90% winning bets over the past five seasons. When any favorite in the NFL has allowed these metrics as seen them produce a horrid 28-100 SU (22%), 15-113 ATS (12%) record and 0-7 SUATS on prime-time Monday Night Football. |
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09-24-23 | Chargers +100 v. Vikings | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Chargers vs Vikings
Betting on teams that are dogs or pick-em that are averaging 5.6 or more yards per play and coming off a game in which their opponent gained 400 or more total yards and now facing a foe with a struggling defense allowing 5.5 or more yards per play has earned an 84=27 record and a 70-41 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets since 2013. If the game is taking place during the weeks three and 5, the record gets even better at 21-10 SU and ATS for 68% winning bets since 2013. |
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09-24-23 | Chargers v. Vikings UNDER 53.5 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Chargers vs Vikings
1:00 EST
8-Unit best Bet on the UNDER 54 points I also like betting 6-Units at 54 points or even 53.5 points and the look to add 2-Units at 56.5 points. I do not believe there will be an opportunity to get a live bet at a price of 60 or more points. However, use your intuition too, and if this game does get out of the gates faster on the scoreboard than expected I do believe that any total above 60 is an excellent opportunity. At a price of 54, each quarter needs to have 13/14 points scored and also implies that at least one team will score in each quarter.
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09-24-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Lions | Top | 6-20 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
Falcons vs Lions
1:00 PM EST
8-Unit best bet on the Falcons plus the 3.5 points Betting on dogs in the first four weeks of the regular season that are priced as 6.5 or fewer points and facing a non-playoff team from last season that also won two or more of their last games in the previous season have gone 22-13 SU and 29-6 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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09-24-23 | Texans +8 v. Jaguars | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Houston vs Jacksonville 1:00 EST
EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are scoring an average of 28 or more points and did not make the playoffs in the previous season have earned a highly profitable 33-64-1 SU record averaging a +450 dog bet on the money line and a 64-30-4 STS record for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Not one season posted a losing money result following the discipline of this betting system. Currently, the line is giving 7.5 points to the Texans and suggest placing 6-Units preflop at +7.5 points and look to get +10.5 points during the first half of action for the remining 2-Units. |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Ole Miss vs Alabama 10-UNIT BEST BET on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points. With a total of 56 points and a line favoring Alabama by 7 points reflect s an Alabama 31.5 24.5 in Tuscaloosa. My predictive models show an 86% probability that Alabama will score at least 28 points and in past games in which they did score 28+ points they have gone 113-6 SU for 95% winners and 75-41-3 ASTS for 65% winning bets under head coach Nick Saban. Alabama is 15-1 SU and 12-4 ASTS for 75% under Saban in conference games and having suffered a loss on the season and scoring at least 28 points. If that loss was at home, he has gone 11-2 SU and 10-3 ASTS for 78% winning bets. He is also 18-9 STS for 67% winners coming off two or more ats losses. Mississippi is just 14-40 SU and 16-37-1 ATS for 30% when allowing 28 or more points and 11-35 SU and 14-31-1 ATS for 31% when facing an SEC foe since 2014. Alabama has issues on offense and there is no doubting it, but the market has overreacted in a significant fashion. More than two months ago, this game had Alabama lined as a 15.5-point favorite and now has plummeted to -7. Did everyone forget just how good this defense is this season. In each of the previous negative starts to the season in which Saban’s team have struggled out of the gate they did successfully make the adjustments and fixed the problems on both sides of the ball and came out with a performance that reminds of us of who the Tide are: winners of 10 National Champions, twice as many as any one else. They covered the spread by an average of 7 PPG in these situations and my predictive model is expecting the same outcome. |
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09-22-23 | Mets v. Phillies -160 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies 8-Unit best bet on the Phillies using the money line Friday With everything going on with College (17-6 ATS 74% winning bets) and NFL Football (8-4-1 ATS 67% winning bets) these MLB reports will be brief, but still model identified and the same strength as any other MLB best bet. Betting on home teams that are batting 0.220 or lower over their last 7 games and is starting a pitcher that allowed 5 or more runs including unearned runs in each of his last two starts has produced an exceptional 42-19 record for 69% winners averaging a +111 wager and earning a 44% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. Former Met Taijuan Walker will be on the hill for the Phillies and has struggled of late posting a 7.27 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP, but has still averaged 5.8 innings per starts. He did allow 5 and 6 runs in this previous two starts, but is projected to bounce back with quality start tonight. Tylor Megill starts tonight and he has gotten hammered on road over 11 starts with a 7.08 ERA and a 2.085 WHIP averaging just 4.3 innings per road start. Phillies should get to him with multiple run innings and win the game. |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers 8-Unit Best bet Under the posted total of 44 points For LIVE Game betting, I will be taking 65% of my normal bet size and betting the ‘UNDER’ preflop and then looking for a faster than expected start in the first quarter and look to get 47.5 or more points betting the Under with the remaining 35% amount
Double-digit underdogs playing on a short week and on the road are 2-25 SU and 18-7-2 Under for 72% winning bets. I also like betting the Under Giants total of 16.5 points for no more than 2 units OR bet 1 unit preflop and then look to add the other unit at 21.5 points. Even under 20.5 points would represent an exceptional betting opportunity as well. The San Francisco 49ers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) are hosting the New York Giants (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) as 10.5-point favorites on Thursday Night Football set to kickoff at 8:20 PM EST. The Giants avoided the dreaded 0-2 start to their season by mounting a historic comeback, trailing by 21 points in the third quarter, to defeat the inept Arizona Cardinals. The Giants offense did not score a point until the third quarter after getting shutout 40-0 in Week 1 by the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants are 35-12 Under following a win by three or fewer points; 17-4 Under if coming off a road win of three or fewer points; 34-19 Under following a game in which they trailed by 14 or more points at any point in the game. My predictive models and research are expecting the Giants to gain fewer than 200 passing yards and have more FG made than TDs scored. In those situations, the Under has gone 23-6 for 80% winning bets. |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 63 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina Betting on the Under with a total of 60 or more points where the home team is coming off two consecutive wins by 14 or more points in each game and with the game taking place in the first five weeks of the season has produced a 27-8-1 record for 77% winning bets since 2007. From the predictive model, we are expecting both teams to gain an average of 5.4 or fewer yards per play. IN past games in which Coastal was one of the teams in the matchup the Under has gone 7-1 for 88% winners and when Georgia State has been in the matchup the Under has gone 14-2-1 Under 85% winning bets. |
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09-20-23 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves 6-Unit best bet on the Under 9.5 runs 1- UNIT best bet NO Runs in the first inning (NERF Bet) 2- Unit Bet Under first Five innings OR 8-Units on the Under full game Wednesday, September 20, 2023 The Under is the bet in this matchup starting at 12:20 PM EST, Wednesday. The Phillies will have Aaron Nola on the hill and he has not pitched well of late posting a horrid 8.56 ERA and a 1.902 WHIP over his last three starts. However, he is a solid #2 starter in the NL and these starters bounce back from multiple non-quality starts. Betting the Under where the underdog is a winning record team, Is priced no higher than 150 on the money line, is starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70 and is averaging six or more SO per game has seen the Under go 25-14 for 64% winning bets over the past five years. Betting the Under in a game played in September with the road team’s starter coming off three consecutive bad starts (did not pitch 6+ innings and allow 3 or fewer ER) and has an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70 and facing a divisional foe has seen the First Five Under go 26-12 for 68% winners over the past five seasons |
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09-18-23 | Phillies -109 v. Braves | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves 10-Unit best bet on the Phillies boxed with Wheeler on the money line Monday, September 18, 2023 The Braves will try to bounce back after being swept over the weekend, but it is uncertain whether MVP candidate Ronald Acuna Jr. will be in the lineup when Atlanta hosts the Philadelphia Phillies for three games beginning Monday night. The slugging right fielder left Friday's game early with right calf tightness and did not play Saturday or Sunday. He will work out on Monday and have his availability determined at that time. Acuna is batting .337 with 37 homers, 98 RBIs and 66 stolen bases this season. This opportunity is with Acuna playing, so it gets better if he is scratched. The Braves (96-53) were swept in Miami over the weekend, the first time they've lost a series to an intra-division opponent since April 2021. Philadelphia (81-68) took two of three at St. Louis, dropping Sunday's series finale 6-5. The Braves were guaranteed a first-round playoff bye on Sunday when Milwaukee lost to Washington. Philadelphia has a three-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the race for the first NL wild-card spot. So, the Phillies certainly have an edge form a motivational standpoint as they are still being chased for the top wild card berth and the right to host the wild card 3-game playoff round. Betting on winning record road teams facing another winning record divisional foe, who is coming off a three-game sweep to a divisional foe have gone 35-24 SU averaging a +105 wager and earning an outstanding 22% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons. The +1.5 run line bet if available for the road team has earned a 26-87 record averaging a _150 bet and making a 35%Roi in games bet over the past five seasons. |
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09-18-23 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
New Orleans vs Carolina 8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points No more than a 3-Unit Parlay Under in this game and Under in the second game, which is Cleveland vs Pittsburgh Betting on underdogs of three or fewer points that are facing a conference foe that was not in the playoffs last season has earned a 32-22 SU record and 34-19-1 ATS mark good for 64% winners since 1992. |