Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +2.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots 8:20 PM EST, Sunday Night Football 8-Unit best bet on the Patriots +2.5 points. The Dolphins and Chargers each recorded 30 first downs in their Week 1 matchup (which Miami won, 36-34). It was the eighth regular-season NFL game since 1960 in which each team had 30 or more first downs and only the sixth such non-overtime game in that time. Mac Jones had a career-high 54 pass attempts in the Patriots' Week 1 loss to the Eagles. Including postseason play, the Patriots are 0-8 in games in which Jones has thrown 38 or more passes (16-9 when he has fewer pass attempts). From the predictive model, we are looking for the Patriots to throw 30 or fewer passes and either gain more than 100 RY or gain more rushing yards than the Dolphins, and have no more than a single turnover. In past home games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a highly profitable 37-1 SU and 30-7-1 ATS for 81% winning under Belichick. The Dolphins are 4-40 SU, 4-39-1 ATS when allowing these measures since 2000. Since 2000, the Patriots are 18=7 SU and 19-6 ATS when coming off a home loss in which they threw 35 or more passes under Belichick. |
|||||||
09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys OVER 38 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys 4:25 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on the OVER 38.5 points and is a valid bet up to 40 points Optional 5-Unit bet opportunity on the NY Jets plus 9.5 points If there is any game prop that if there is a pick six interception return, I like that a lot for pizza money Betting the Over with a team coming off a blowout win of 35 or more points over a divisional foe and had more rushing attempts than passing attempts has produced a 36-23 record good for 61% winning bets over since 1990. If the foe (Jets) is not from the same conference, the Over has gone 11-4 for 73% winning bets. The Jets went 2-7 over the first nine matchups against the Cowboys but have won their last three games against Dallas since 2011. The Jets have a perfect record in that time against just one other team, the Washington Commanders and a 3-0 record. The Jets beat the Bills on Monday despite a 10-point deficit in the third quarter. The last time the Jets had a comeback win when trailing at any point in the second half by at least 10 points during Week 1 was in 2011, a 14-point comeback against Dallas. In case you were wondering, teams that held their previous opponent to six or fewer points on 12 or more drives and now playing in a game with a total between 37.5 and 43.5 points are 31-37 SU and 21-43-4 ATS for 33%. That folks, means we are fading the Cowboys. |
|||||||
09-17-23 | 49ers v. Rams +7.5 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
San Francisco vs LA Rams 4:05 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams +7.5 points and a little sprinkle on the money line. The 49ers are just 5-20 ATS following a great defensive effort in which they allowed 50 or fewer rushing yards. They are 14-28-1 ATS when on the road and coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 10 points. They are 23-42 ATS in road games following a win by 14 or more points. Teams playing in weeks 2 through 4 that are coming off a road win against a divisional foe are 40-14 SU for 74% and 34-19-1 ATS for 64% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. If our team is playing at home, the record moves higher to 33-9 SU for 79% winning bets and 28-13-1 ATS for 68% winning tickets over the past 10 seasons. Puka Nacua became the fifth player in the last 60 years to record 10+ receptions in his NFL debut, along with Sid Banks in 1964 (13), Keke Coutee in 2018 (11), Anquan Boldin in 2003 (10) and Earl Cooper in 1980 (10). The 49ers held the Steelers to only seven points in Week 1, generating five sacks and two interceptions. The only other season opener in the last 60 years that San Francisco's defense hit all these marks was in 2003 (7 pts allowed, 5 sacks, 3 INTs). The next game they faced the Rams on the road and lost that game 27-24. San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total currently priced at 46.5 points Betting the Over in a game with a total of 45 or more points, with the road team coming off a game in which they and their foe both had 27 or more first downs has earned a 13-23 SU record for 36%, 14-22 ATS for 39%, and 26-10 Over for 72% winners. Plus, if the game is a divisional showdown, the record soars to an amazing 13-3 OVER for 81% winners since 2000. Tannehill posted his worst passer rating in Tennessee's 16-15 loss in New Orleans, which also marked just the third game of his career and first since his rookie season with three interceptions and no touchdown passes. The Chargers (0-1) have their own motivation. They haven't won in their past two trips to Nashville and are coming off a 36-34 loss to Miami where they gave up a league-high 466 yards passing. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Chargers and Titans to combine for more than 700 yards of offense. In past games when the Chargers and their foe gained over 700 total yards has seen the OVER go 127-39 for 77% and the Titans have seen the OVER go 98-26 for 79% winners and these are projections without Eckler in the game. |
|||||||
09-17-23 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons 8-Unit Best Bet on the Packers plus 2.5 points 1:00 PM EST Betting against non-playoff teams that won their last two games of the previous season and are favorites of not more than 6.5 points in weeks 2 through 4 have gone 7-15 SU and 4-18 ATS for 18% winners and failing to cover the spread by an average 6 points per game over the past 10 seasons. Falcons are 3-17 ATS in home games coming off a double-digit win. Green Bay (1-0) faces the Falcons (1-0) on Sunday, and their QB Jordan Love will be looking to build on the solid numbers he put up in a 38-20 victory at Chicago. He threw for 245 yards and three touchdowns in his second career start after backing up Rodgers the last three seasons. The Falcons find themselves in strange territory after opening the season with a 24-10 victory over Carolina. For the first time since the end of the 2017 season, Atlanta has a winning record. The Falcons are a young team that remains uncertain and in a rebuild mode. However, the Packers have the potential under Love, how got to study, watch, and learn from the departed Aaron Rogers and that showed immensely in Week 1. The Falcons are building around their own young quarterback, Desmond Ridder, who passed for only 115 yards against the Panthers. Most notably, top receiver Drake Young failed to make a catch and was targeted only once and look for the Packers defense to minimize his catches today. |
|||||||
09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jaguars plus the points Consider betting 6.5 units preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 1.5 units if the Chiefs score a TD first or the betting line gets to +7.5 during the first half of action. Betting on home teams coming off a double-digit win to a divisional foe, total is 50 or more points and was in the playoffs in the previous season have produced a 34-6 SU record, 26-13-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990. Jags head coach Pederson is a remarkable 15-4 ATS as a home dog for his career and 13-4 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 or fewer points for his career. Supporting a sprinkle on the money line is the fact that teams coming off a road win against a divisional foe in the first four weeks of the regular season have gone 40-14 SU, and 34-19-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 years. No Super Bowl winning team has started out the following season 0-2 since the 1999 Denver Broncos, who were in rebuild mode after their legendary QB John Elway retired. The Chiefs fell to the Lions in Week 1, making them the second defending champions since 2000 to lose their season opener to a team that missed the playoffs the previous year. The 2012 Giants lost to the Cowboys in their season opener after winning Super Bowl XLVI. The Giants went on to a dismal 9-7 record, 7-8-1 ATS in 2012. The Jaguars have a great coach in Doug Pederson, who won the 2017 Super Bowl as the herd coach of the Eagles and their roster is built to make a run for the AFC Championship game. |
|||||||
09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +5.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Tennessee vs Florida
7:30 PM EST, Saturday, September 16
With a total of 58.5 points and a line favoring the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers by 6 points implies a 32-26 Volunteer win. The scoring has the potential to be quite volatile with many lead changes, which will provide great betting opportunities as well. So, consider betting 6-Units preflop and then add 1-Unit if Tennessee scores a touchdown first (not a field goal or safety) or if Tennessee gets out to a 10-0 lead having scored a FG first. Or simply add the 2-units if the price makes Florida a double-digit underdog at any point during the first half.
Betting on teams ranked in the Top-20 (not Top-25) that are road favorites of 4.5 to 9.5 points and facing a conference foe in the first four weeks of the regular season has gone 29-11 SU (73%), but just 13-27 ATS for 33% winning bets. So, fading these ranked false favorites is a great betting opportunity. If the game occurs in the SEC conference, the home dog is an amazing and highly profitable 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets sine 1994 and has not lost ATS since 2010 going a perfect 10-0 ATS for 100% winners.
No. 11 Tennessee opens Southeastern Conference play on the road Saturday night against a Florida offense that gained nearly 1,100 yards combined in their last two meetings. Tennessee defeated Florida last season, 38-33, after losing 16 of the previous 17 matchups against the Gators. This will be the first matchup the Volunteers are ranked in the AP Poll and the Gators are not since October 2, 1971, when Tennessee was then No. 12. Last week against the McNeese State Cowboys, Trevor Etienne, Montrell Johnson and Treyaun Webb became the first FBS trio this season to each record at least 10 rushes, 70 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in a single game. This is the only such game for the Gators over the past 25 seasons. The last time Tennessee visited the Swamp on Sept. 25, 2021, Florida held the No. 11 ranking and rolled up 505 yards of offense in a 38-14 victory. The predictive models and applications. Suggest that Florida will score 27 or more points and have at least a three-minute edge in time-of-possession and run at least 8 more plays then Tennessee. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures led Florida to a 24-1 record, 18-7 ATS for 72% winners and a 16-9 Over result. In past games in which Tennessee allowed these measures led them to a 4-21 SU record and 4-20-1 ATS mark for just 17% winning bets including an 18-6-1 Over result. |
|||||||
09-15-23 | Yankees v. Pirates +145 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Friday, 6:35 PM EST, September 15, 2023 8-Unit best bet on the Pirates using the money line, currently priced at +120 and is a valid bet to the Pirates being a -110 favorite. The Betting Angles Supporting the Pirates Yankees are 9-17 averaging a _142 favorite and earning a dismal -44% ROI when facing a NL foe that is batting 0.255 or lower on the season in games played after the break over the past two seasons. Pirates are 25-24 averaging a +145 wager and earning a 24% ROI when facing a team that is averaging 1.25 or more HR per game this season and if at home 10-7 averaging a +132 wager and earning a 37% ROI this season. The Yankees may hit alot of home runs, but they do not hit well in situations with men on base and opportunities to score runs. Over the past seven games they have batted just 0.176 and scoring an average of 3.1 RPG. For the season, it is truly hard to believe this team with their 330MM+ payroll is scoring an average of 4.2 RPG and batting 0.225 with a horrid 0.298 on-base-percentage. They rank 29th of the 32 teams in the league in OBP and are ahead of the cellar dwelling Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, and the Chicago White Sox. Gerrit Cole will be on the mound and he has been one of the bright lights in an otherwise horrid Yankee seasons. He is 13-4 in 30 starts with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.027 EWHIP including 45 walks and 204 strikeouts spanning 187 inning of work. He has posted a 1.42 ERA and a o.895 WHIP over his last three starts spanning 19 innings of work. However, the Yankees bullpen is a mess of late and even if the Pirates trail when Cole is brought out of the game, they will still have a chance to win the game. The PIrates will hand the ball to Johan Oviedo, who is making his 30th start and is 8-14 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.342 WHIP spanning 161 2/3 innings of work. He is pitching his best baseball right now posting a 3.30 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over his last three starts. He has an electric fastball that averages 96 MPH with late arm-side tailing action. The Yankees are not a disciplined hitting team and this is the type of pitch that gets them out and produces weakly hit ground balls and strikeouts. His slider, though, may be his best pitch and averages an above average 88 MPH, but again has tremendous movement with many of these pitches being whiffed at and out of the strike zone. |
|||||||
09-14-23 | Vikings +6 v. Eagles | Top | 28-34 | Push | 0 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles 8-Unit Best Bet on the Vikings +7.5 points 8:20 PM EST Betting on road teams in the first five weeks of the season in a matchup where both teams are playing on a short week, both teams had no individual player having more than 19 rushing attempts in the previous game have gone 16-14 SU, 18-10-2 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If our dog is priced between a 1 and 7-point underdog produces an 8-9 SU, 12-5 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Betting road underdogs that committed three or more turnovers in their previous game and facing a host that committed no more than a single turnover in their previous games has earned an outstanding 45-20-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. In 2022, this system went 14-3 ATS for 82% winners. In 2021, it went 11-7 ATS for 61% winners. In 2020, it went 9-1 ATS for 90% winners. In 2019, it went 11-9-1 ATS for 55% winners. Point is that this system has generated tremendous results over the course of a season and remember that this system has had 20 ATS losses over the past five seasons. So, on any betting opportunity, it is exactly that – an OPPORTUNITY and not a LOCK. Betting against the previous season Super Bowl loser in weeks 2 through 4 and facing a foe that is coming off an upset loss are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS losing to the spread by an average of 13 PPG over the past 10 seasons. The Eagle’s defense is banged up and they were unable to generate any significant pass rush last week against the Patriots. Giving Cousins time to throw the ball and having numerous weapons to throw to starting with the NFL’s best receiver in Justin Jefferson is not a winning situation for the Eagles. Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell and safety Reed Blankenship are out with rib injuries while cornerback James Bradberry is in the concussion protocol. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is questionable with rib injuries. The Eagles already placed linebacker Nakobe Dean (foot) on the injured reserve this week. Replacing Bradberry is Josh Jobe, who has had just 24 totals snaps in the NFL, which by itself makes Justin Jefferson, rookie Jordan Addison, and TE TJ Hockenson primary targets and excellent Over Player prop bets for catches and/or betting Over receiving yards gained tonight. If the Eagles elect to have Darius Slay mirror Jefferson, the first Slay will be out of position if lined up on the left side (defense perspective) and also puts Jobe in a new side of the field with no experience. The Vikings can utilize Jefferson as a decoy and force another backup at the free safety position, rookie Sydney Brown, to be used as deep help against Jefferson leaving Jobe on an island to cover Addison. Thius is a simple read for Cousins to make, especially if the Eagles defensive front does not get pressure on him with just their front four. If the Eagles need to bring linebacker blitzes, then look for Cousins to get the ball out quickly targeting Hockenson over the middle. |
|||||||
09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets Now, this is a top-rated pick and we have seen an increase in scoring volatility with nearly 30% of games played seeing both teams enjoying 7 or more-point leads. Two games already in Week 1 saw this happen with the Detroit Lions scoring first and leading 7-0 and then the Chiefs roaring back to retake the lead 14-7. In the second game, the Vikings took a 10-3 lead after the Bucs opened the scoring 3-0 and then tied the game at the half and took the lead in the third quarter 17-10. This game has the potential for a similar back and forth type of scoring volatility so if it does happen let it work in your favor. Consider betting 8-Units on the Jets preflop and then if they fall behind by 7 points on the basis of a Bill touchdown to start the scoring add another unit plus the points, and if that lead goes to 10-0 or 14-0 then add the final unit plus the points. I am not suggesting this will happen, but if it does jump on it as another betting opportunity, in my opinion. Aaron Rogers is back with his former OC Nathaniel Hackett and former Packer’s WR Allen Lazard and WR Randall Cobb. The last time Rogers had an elite defensive unit playing with the Packers as back in 2010, which is also the year of the only Super Bowl ring Rogers has ever had. More, the Jets last season allowed the second fewest yards-per-play at 4.8 and just a couple of hundredths higher than the Philadelphia Eagles. So, even though this is the first game of the regular season, this Jets team – at least on paper – is much better than last year’s edition. Divisional dogs in week 1 action are 15-13-1 SU and 18-11 ATS over the past five seasons. Home dogs over the past five years have gone 5-3-1 SU and 7-2 ATS over the past five seasons, 9-6-2 SU and 13-4 ATS for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons, and 20-19-2 SU and 26-15 ATS over the past 25 seasons. If our dog is priced at just 2.5 points or less, they have gone 9-2 SUATS for 82% winners over the past 25 seasons. Rodgers is 6-0 ATS as a home dog and 43-27 ATS facing a divisional foe for his career. Favorites playing on Week 1 and on MNF have gone a terrible 14-11 SU and 7-16-2 ATS for 36% winners since 2009. Plus, if the MNF game is facing off divisional foes, the favorite is on a 5-5 SU record and 2-7-1 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If the favorite is taking on a host that had a losing record last season, the favorites are a horrid 3-9 ATS for 25% winning bets. From the predictive model, one of the high probability projections call the Bills to have the same or more turnovers than the Jets. Favorites on MNF in week 1that had the same or more turnovers when on to post a 2-7-1 ATS record for 22% winners. The Jets are also 12-3 ATS as a home dog hosting the Bills and 8-1 ATS for 89% winners when hosting the Bills as a home dog and priced at 7.5 or fewer points. The Flyboys are 71-12 SU and 69-13-1 ATS in home games in which they have scored 24 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past 20 seasons and 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS for 86% winners over the past five seasons. Take the Jets and remember always to be with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours. |
|||||||
09-10-23 | Rams +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. Betting on dogs in Week 1 facing a divisional rival have gone 22-21-2 SU and 31-12-2 ATS for 72% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 5 PPG. If our dog is priced as 6.5 or fewer points, they have earned a 19-14-1 SU mark and 24-8-2 ATS for 75% winning bets and if a priced as a home dog of 6.5 or fewer points an outstanding 7-4-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets covering by an average of 8.3 PPG. Betting on Dogs in a divisional matchup in Week 1 that lost both games to that foe last season have gone 18-33-2 SU, but 36-16-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Now, if priced as a home dog of two or more points has gone 16-16-2 SU and 22-12 ATS for 65% last 20 seasons and has produced a 7-4-2 SU record and 12-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Tampa Bay Bucs vs Minnesota Vikings Sunday, September 10, 2023 Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. From the predictive models, there is high probability that the Bucs will outgain the Vikings in total yards in this game. In past games over the past five season, teams that are priced as road underdogs and outgain their foes have gone on to a highly profitable 231-92-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. The Vikings are 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS for 25% winners when outgained as a home favorite over the past 10 seasons. |
|||||||
09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +3.5 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots Week 1 8-Unit best bet on the Patriots plus the points currently at +4.5 points. The Super Bowl loser generally starts the next season off with a bit of a hangover or perhaps it is more over confidence knowing they are a Super Bowl contending type of team. The Patriots had an off season by many standards, and they did add quite a few solid pieces to fill voids and weakness from last year’s roster. The Super Bowl loser is just 2-10 ATS when playing on the road in Week 1 spanning the past 20 seasons and 1-5 if a road favorite of at least 2 points. Coach Belichick is 29-15 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 57-37 ATS as a dog for his career, 102-65 Ats in games played in the first half of the regular season. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Patriot to score 21 or more points, their defense to hold the Eagles passing game to 250 or fewer net passing yards and for the Patriots to gain at least 4 yards-per-carry. In past games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures saw them go an impressive 100-15 SU and 87-27-12 ATS for 76% winning bets and 67-4 SU and 53-17-1 ATS for 76% winning bets if playing at home in Gillette Stadium. The ’spine’ of the Eagles defense is the weakest part of their unit entering the season. They have had numerous personnel changes within the unit due to free agency and it is rare that any team can have solid chemistry and communication early on in the season. They also have five defensive starters aged 30 or more and the wear and tear of a long-standing career does take it’s toll on the human body. Two of those players re at the cornerback position with Darius Slay, who is still one of the best entering the season and James Bradberry on the right side, who was acquired as a cap casualty from the Giants. Last season, 12.0 of Matthew Judon's 15.5 sacks were recorded in the first half of games, most in the NFL. Overall, Judon's 28.0 total sacks since the start of the 2021 season are tied for the most in that span behind T.J. Watt. |
|||||||
09-10-23 | Bucs +5 v. Vikings | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
Tampa Bay Bucs vs Minnesota Vikings Week 1 Sunday, September 10, 2023 Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. From the predictive models, there is high probability that the Bucs will outgain the Vikings in total yards in this game. In past games over the past five season, teams that are priced as road underdogs and outgain their foes have gone on to a highly profitable 231-92-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. The Vikings are 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS for 25% winners when outgained as a home favorite over the past 10 seasons. |
|||||||
09-10-23 | Texans +10 v. Ravens | Top | 9-25 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens 8-Unit best Bet on the Texans plus the 9.5-points Consider betting 6-Units preflop taking the points and then look to add 2-units at +14.5 points during the first half of action. Scoring volatility reached a new high last season and the trend has been moving higher in each of the past five seasons. So, let the back and forth scoring that is prevalent in a typical NFL game work in your favor.
We are 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets through two weeks of college football and 68% on 79-38 ATS record spanning the last three seasons as documented by sportsmemo and sports capping.
|
|||||||
09-10-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Falcons | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers I think betting this game completely preflop is the way to go. Betting on dogs of 6.5 or fewer points in the first four weeks of the season that are facing a host that did not make the playoffs but did win their last two games of the regular season in the previous season are 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the past five seasons of action. Over the past 10 seasons, the record has been a highly profitable 22-14 SU and 29-6-1 ATS for 83% winning bets and over the past 20 seasons a record of 46-46 SU and 60-27-5 ATS for 69% winning bets. Dogs in a week 1 divisional matchup are 22-21-23 SU, 31-12-2 ATS for 72% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 5.5 PPG and if the dog is priced at 6.5 or fewer points, the record goes to 19-14-1 SU and 24-8-2 ATS for 75% winning bets. |
|||||||
09-09-23 | Wisconsin -5 v. Washington State | Top | 22-31 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
No. 19 Wisconsin vs Washington State
7:30 PM EST, September 9, 2023 Line: Wisconsin -6 | Total:59 points 8-UNIT BEST BET on Wisconsin minus the points This is a matchup between the Big Ten and PAC-12 in week 2 that will be televised nationally on ABC. Wisconsin got off to a low start in week 1 under new coach Luke Fickell before the offense took flight in a 38-17 win over the Buffalo Bulls. Wisconsin failed to cover the spread priced as 27.5-point home favorites. The Bulls trailed by only four points at the half, but were outscored by 24-7 in the second half. Wisconsin inexplicably lost 17-14 at home to Washington State in Week 3 priced as 17.5 point favorites so revenge is a factor that will prevent them from overlooking them a second consecutive year. Washington State has played in a bowl game seven straight seasons and eight of the past nine. However, the coaching staff has it’s third different offensive and defensive coordinator in as many seasons. Despite the fact that they have former OC Ben Arbuckle, who developed the 8th best offense in college football that averaged just under 500 Yards-Per-Game, it takes time for any offense to learn a new system without any game experience. On defense the problem worsens for Washington State having just five returning starters from a unit that allowed seven foes 20 or fewer points. So, it is not realistic to expect a rebuilding defense to have the potential to stop a Wisconsin air raid offense that returns 10 starters including quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who passed for 72 touchdowns in his past two seasons. Wisconsin has three outstanding starting receivers (Chimere Dike, Bryson Green, and Will Pauling) and added 13 quality players form the transfer portal. What are the Model Predictions?
|
|||||||
09-09-23 | Texas +7 v. Alabama | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Texas vs Alabama 7:00 PM EST, September 9, 2023 8-UNIT best bet on Texas plus the points currently priced at 7. If Alabama scores first in this game, consider adding no more than 1-unit on the money line. Texas head coach Sarkisian is 25-10 ATS in games with a total between 49.5 and 56 for his career. He knows what championship teams look like having been at the helm at USC in 2003 when they won the National Championship and as the offensive coordinator for Alabama in their championship season in 2020. Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points after a game in which they outgained their foes by 175 or more total yards and has an experienced QB under center while facing a foe with a new and inexperienced QB at the helm has earned a 55-22 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Quinn Ewers is the starting QB for Texas and was the #1 5-star quarterback in the 2021 recruiting class. He had a largely up and down season, but now has that valuable game experience under his belt. Remember, Texas lost at home to Alabama as 17.5 underdogs on a last second FG last year. They have superior depth at wide receiver this season with returning starter Xavier Worthy and the top-rated WR in the transfer portal in AD Mitchell from Georgia. Even more important is that the Longhorns return four of the five offensive linemen, and that unit has tremendous chemistry, which is a significant advantage for them against the ‘Bama defense. If the models and my research are correct, I do believe Texas wins this game outright. |
|||||||
09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +3 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Texas A&M vs Miami (FL)8-Unit Best Bet on the Miami Hurricanes plus the points, currently priced as 4.5 underdogs.
Betting on home teams that are coming off a game in which they gained 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game and in a game with both teams having eight or more returning defensive starters on their team has earned a solid 79-39 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and is a consistent 56-28 ATS for 67% winners over the past five seasons. The Aggies have played their last six games without throwing an interception, which is the best current streak in the FBS. Problem for the Aggies is that these streaks rarely continue past six or seven games. Colbie Young had four receptions for 79 yards and caught his sixth career touchdown in his ninth career game with Miami. Among all power conference wideouts with less than 10 career games, Young has the most receiving touchdowns (six), second most catches (36) and second most receiving yards (446). From the predictive models, Miami is expected to have the same or fewer turnovers and hold the Aggies to less than 100 yards rushing. In past games in which Miami achieved these performance measures has seen them go 42-6 SU and 31-15-2 ATS for 67.4% winning bets. |
|||||||
09-09-23 | Notre Dame v. NC State +7 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
No. 10 Notre Dame vs NC StateNoon ET, September 9, 2023NC State +7.5 points
Consider betting 80^ of your bet amount preflop and then look to add the remaining 20% if Notre Dame scores a TD first or takes a 10-0 lead if their first score was a field goal. Betting on an unranked home underdogs of 7.5 or fewer points in the first two weeks of the season and with a posted total of 50 or more points has earned a solid 12-9 SU record and a 14-7 ASTS mark good for 67% winning bets since 2008. Now, if they are home dogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, they do even better with a 9-24 SU record and an impressive 16-7 ATS mark for 70% winning bets since 2008. Teams have not played a game since 2017, but Notre Dame is riding a 32-3 SU record against the ACC, but has produced a 18-17 ATS mark over that span since 2017. Th efact that this trend has matured over many years actually becomes one that will be prone to reverse course with ND losing more ATS and SU then previously has been attained. Moreover, ND is just 2-112 ATS in road games after leading their last two games by 14 or more points at the half dating back to 2007. Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, was a bowl team from the previous season has earned a 100-52 ATS mark for 65% winning bets. Plus, dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is coming off a home win of 17 or more points and had won 60% or more of their games in the previous season has earned a 50-20-2 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. |
|||||||
09-09-23 | Nebraska v. Colorado UNDER 58 | Top | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
Colorado vs Nebraska
5-Unit best bet on Nebraska plus the points over the Colorado Buffalos.8-UNIT BEST BET on the Under The reaction has been swift and at this point irrational as 80% of the best being made are on the Buffalos pushing what my research shows to the superior team to be priced as the underdog. About two months ago, this betting line opened with Nebraska priced as a 10-point road favorite and now after one game, the market is telling us that Colorado is a 3.5-point favorite. Colorado is on an 0-7 ATS run in games played with a total between 56 and 63 points. Colorado is 14-27-1 ATS after ALLOWING 525 or more total yards in their previous game. As mentioned, the betting line opened with Nebraska priced as a 10-point road favorite and moved more than 10 points with some books offering Nebraska as a 3.5-point dog yesterday. The current price as Nebraska priced as a 2.5-point underdog. This game is getting more action than some NFL games, which is rare to see and more than 35% of the next most actively bet college football game, which is Texas vs Alabama. The overzealous reaction to Colorado, who suddenly is now ranked in the AP poll is a stunner. Whenever the line movements are this swift and exceed double-digits, the opportunity is to fade the trend and join the books, who will desperately need Nebraska to cover the number. |
|||||||
09-08-23 | Padres v. Astros -131 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Consider betting 8-Unit son the money line and 2-Units on the -1.5 run-line
Betting on home teams that are in an inter-league matchup and coming off a three-game series sweep of a divisional foe has earned a 46-12 record averaging a -114 wager and earning a 47% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break the record has been an impressive 14-3 averaging a -138 wager and earning a 49% ROI over the past five seasons. Plus, a near-perfect 7-1 if facing a losing record foe. This algo has gone a quite impressive 10-2 averaging -116 wager and earning a 55% ROI this season. The Astros, set to host the San Diego Padres in a three-game interleague series starting Friday, outscored Texas 39-10 and hit 16 home runs during the series while gaining sole possession of first place in the AL West Division for the first time this season spanning 141 games or with just 21 games remaining on the season. Cy Young contender and left-hander Blake Snell, who is 12-9 with a 2.50 has the starting assignment for the Padres on Friday. Snell leads the NL in ERA, opponent batting average (.191) and opponent OPS (.611), and ranks second in both whiffs percentage (37.0) and strikeouts (201). However, he also has recorded the most walks (89) and wild pitches (12) in the majors. Snell is 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA over seven career starts against the Astros. In his last appearance against Houston on May 30, 2021, Snell surrendered seven runs on five hits and three walks with three strikeouts over three innings in a 7-4 road loss. Despite being more than two years removed from facing the Astros the memories of facing them are not good and the Astros bats are scorching hot. Since 2007, there have been only three other teams to have hit 15 home runs in a three-game span. In 2019, the Yankees did it and won their next game 12-6. IN 2019, the Nationals did it and lost the next game 4-1. In 2020, the Blue Jays did it and won the next game 7-2 and also in 2020, the Yankees did it and won the next game 6-5. So, overall, teams that have hit 15 or more home runs in a three game span are 3-1. |
|||||||
09-07-23 | Lions +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs 8-Unit best Bet on the Lions plus the 4.5-points Consider betting 5-Units preflop taking the points and then look to add 2-units at +7.5 points and 1-Unit at +9.5 points. Scoring volatility reached a new high last season and the trend has been moving higher in each of the past five seasons. The Chiefs have played in the most games (32) in which they and their opponents had a 7 or more-point lead over the past five seasons and I believe this game tonight will be another one of those types of up and down games.
|
|||||||
09-06-23 | Mariners v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds Betting the OVER with a home dog of 135 to 155 on the money line in the last game of a series and that is coming off a walk-off win has seen the OVER go 42-22-6 for 66% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Mariners are 24-11 Over after having lost four their previous five games. The Reds are 9-1 Over revenging a same-season loss priced as the favorite in that that loss. Under skipper Bell, the Reds are 72-44 OVER in home games following two consecutive games in which they committed no errors. From the predictive models, we are looking for the starters to combine for no more than 11 innings of work and for both teams to combine for 2 or more multiple-run-innings. In past games in which the Reds were at home and met these performance measures has seen the OVER go 210-64-11 for 77% winning bets and in road games, the Mariners have seen the Over go 222-48-12 for 82% winners. |
|||||||
09-05-23 | Astros v. Rangers +102 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers 8-Unit best bet on the Rangers using the money line I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the money line and then look then bet 1-unit on the Rangers using the money line if the Astros score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of play. Betting on home underdogs including -110 favorites that are facing a scorching hot hitting team batting 0.290 or higher over their last 20 games has earned a 77-87 record, but by averaging a 145 wager has earned a highly profitable 14% ROI in games played over the past seven seasons. If the game occurs are the all-star break, these dogs move to an impressive 44-43 averaging a +152 wager and earning an outstanding 25% ROI. |
|||||||
09-05-23 | Mariners v. Reds +136 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 136 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the money line and then look then bet 1-unit on the Rangers using the money line if the Astros score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of play. Betting on home underdogs including -110 favorites that are facing a scorching hot hitting team batting 0.290 or higher over their last 20 games has earned a 77-87 record, but by averaging a 145 wager has earned a highly profitable 14% ROI in games played over the past seven seasons. If the game occurs are the all-star break, these dogs move to an impressive 44-43 averaging a +152 wager and earning an outstanding 25% ROI. |
|||||||
09-05-23 | Red Sox +139 v. Rays | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting on AL road dogs between 125 and 175 using the money line that are starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 on the season and facing a foe that is starting a pitcher that averages 5 or more K’s-per-start has produced a 43-49 record for 47% winning bets, but by averaging a 147 underdog wager has earned a solid 15% ROI over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break, the record has been 20-18 for 53% winners averaging a 147 wager and earning a 30% ROI. |
|||||||
09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Clemson vs Duke Duke second-year head coach Mike Elko has 18 returning starters with 10 on offense including last year’s quarterback, Riley Leonard. After a three-win 2021 season that include losses in their last eight games, former head coach David Cutcliffe was dismissed. Elko turned things around immediately winning 8 regular season games and then won 30-13 in the Military Bowl over UCF. With a total of 55.5 points and Clemson favored by 13 points implies a 34.25-21.25 Clemson win. However, my predictive models show a high probability that Duke will score 27 or more points and average 6 or more yards-per-play. There are several projections that result in Duke’s offense gaining more YPP than Clemson. In past games in which Duke scored 27 or more points and averaged 6 or more YPP they went on to a highly profitable 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. If they score 27+ points and gain more YPP than their foe, the record goes to 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS for 83% winning bets. |
|||||||
09-04-23 | Giants v. Cubs -132 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs 8-Unit best bet on the Cubs using the money line I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the spread and then look for the Giants to score first or retake the lead during the first 3 innings of action and then bet 1-unit on the Cubs using the money line. After winning Game of their four-game series against the NL West rival San Diego Padres, the Giants lost the next three games scoring just 4 runs and getting shutout yesterday. The Cubs have won 8 of 12 games and are coming off a four-game split to their division-rival Cincinnati Reds. The Phillies enjoy a 5.5-game lead in the NL Wild Card race, while the Cubs are currently in the second slot. Then there is a big-time log jam with the Marlins, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Reds in a dead heat for the third and final wild card berth. The key info to know is that the Giants own most of the tie-breakers and the Diamondbacks do not. Betting on teams that have won 51 to 55% of their games that are facing a foe that is on a 3-game losing streak having lost each of those games to a divisional foe has gone 11-2 for 85% averaging a -141 wager and earning a 45% ROI since 2019. If our team is the home favorite, then our team has gone a near-perfect 8-1 averaging a -127 wager and earning a 65% ROI. |
|||||||
09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State +2.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Florida State vs LSU I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the spread and then look for LSU to score first or retake the lead during the first half of action and then bet 1-unit on the Seminoles using the money line. FSU head coach Mike Norvell returns 17 starters with nine on defense. The Seminoles started 22 freshman at some point in games played last season and that experience is a monumental advantage and provides superior depth at the skill positions in this matchup. Last year, the Seminoles played 22 freshmen ranking third most in college football and ranked third nationally scoring an average 10.4 PPG in the first quarter of action. Jordan Travis, a senior transfer from Louisville, returns under center after having a great 2022 campaign completing 64% of his 226 passes for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns, and an outstanding 160.1 quarterback rating (QBR). What I am most impressed this coming into the season are the stable of Seminole running backs starting with red shirt junior transfer Trey Benson, red shirt freshman Rodney Hill, red shirt junior, Lawrence Toafili, red shirt junior transfer Caziah Holmes, and red shirt sophomore CJ Campbell, JR. After transferring from Oregon, Benson ran for 990 rushing yards, averaging 6.4 yards-per-rush (YPR) including nine touchdowns (TD). He accounted for 1,156 yards from scrimmage and 120 TD. I believe Hill is going to have a breakout season and is listed as the second RB on the Seminole depth chart. He has elite quickness, speed, and elusiveness that may give the Seminoles two 1,000 yard ground gainers this season. The most significant addition to the Seminole offense is the junior transfer Keon Coleman from Michigan State, who has NFL size at 6-4 and 215 pounds and can be consistently covered in man coverage schemes. For MSU last season, he caught a team high 58 balls for a team-high 798 receiving yards, averaging 13 yards-per-catch (YPC) including team-high eight receiving TD. From the predictive models, we are looking for FSU to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which FSU met or exceeded these measures has produced a 18-0 record and 14-4 ATS record good for 78% winning bets. In games in which LSU allowed 28+ points and had the same or more turnovers has led to a 4-9 record and a 3-10 ATS record for 23% winners in games played over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
08-31-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +130 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Thursday – Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers 10-Unit best bet on the Dodgers using the money line I recommend betting this game with 8-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add the remaining two-unit amount if the Braves to score first, which they are quite good at doing this season, or retake the lead at some point over the first three innings of action. The Braves own the major leagues' best record at 87-45 averaging a -181 wager and earning a 7% ROI, with the Dodgers second best at 83-49 averaging a -162 wager and earning a 6% ROI and closing fast with 24 victories in 28 games this month. The August success has given Los Angeles its third most wins in a single month in franchise history. With another victory on Thursday, the Dodgers would tie their single-month high accomplished in June 1947 and August 1953. This is certainly a potential preview of the NLCS, but the Philadelphia Phillies are playing spectacular baseball in their own right. Betting on any team that is averaging 5.0 or more RPG and has allowed two or fewer runs in each of their two previous games and facing a NL foe with a strong starter with a 3.70 ERA has produced a 158-109 record good for 59% and earning a respectable 9% ROI. If the game takes place after the all start break the record improves to 62-30 for 67% winning bets and earns a 24% ROI. If our team is the dog, the record is 12-12, but averaging a +140 wager produces an exceptional 26% ROI and if they are a home dog, a perfect 3-0. Betting on home dogs using the +1.5-run line that are facing a foe that is batting 0.290 or better over their previous 20 games has earned a 103-57 mark good for 64% winning bets over the past seven seasons. If our dog is priced at no higher than 150 on the money line, the run line record has gone 75-32 for 70% winning bets earning a highly profitable 27% ROI over the past seven seasons. I mention this as an alternative in-game bet to take the +1.5 run line if the Braves score first. In only one other occasion this season has the Dodgers been priced as a home dog. Home dogs that are in a matchup where both they and their foe have won at least 60% of their games on the season and the game occurring after the all-star break has earned a 13-11 record for 54%, Averaging a 121 wager and earning a 19% ROI. |
|||||||
08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 47 m | Show |
Thursday – Nebraska vs Minnesota · Betting on road underdogs facing a conference foe using the MONEY LINE · Our dog is priced at 10 or fewer points · Game occurs in the first three weeks of the season · Our dog is coming off a season in which they allowed 400 or YPG · 26-26 (50%) | 315 ML wager | 310% ROI past 20 seasons Subset: If our road warrior lost by 3 to 9 points in the previous meeting 9-12 (43%) | 12-5 ATS (71%) last 20 seasons
At this point, it appears the Cornhuskers will have their third different starting QB in as many seasons. Former Georgia tech QB, Jeff Sims transferred to Nebraska in December and had a solid Spring football season. He will have a much-improved offensive line in front of him led by ASU transfer and Center Ben Scott. The offensive scheme will be the spread option under head coach Matt Rhule. Nebraska will run the ball from many different pre and post-snap alignments and create opportunities for short pass routes, which in turn will set up the play action pass play in man coverage situations. This ball-controlled scheme will give the defense time to rest between sets of downs, which is something that unit has not benefitted from in many seasons.
|
|||||||
08-31-23 | Florida +4.5 v. Utah | Top | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
Thursday – Florida Gators vs Utah Utes The ranked Utah Utes will take on the SEC-member Florida Gators in Week 1 action set to kickoff at 8:00 PM EST, Thursday evening. Ranked teams of between a 7.5-point dog and 7.5-point favorite are 44-41 SU (52%) and 35-47-3 ATS (43%) in Week 1 action. If they won 10 or more games in the previous season, they have underperformed with a 26-22 SU record (54%0 and 19-27-2 ATS mark for just (41%), and the OVER has gone 28-18-2 for a solid 61% winning bets. Let’s drill a bit deeper into the omnipotent database. In week 1 action ranked teams priced between a 7.5 dog and favorite and facing an unranked foe fall flat producing a 15-12 SU record and 7-19-1 ATS mark good for 27% winning bets. This implies that fading these falsely ranked teams, hits 73% winning bets. Not the situation for our matchup here but note for future reference that these Week 1 teams when priced as a dog have gone a terrible 0-4 ATS. If our road disrespected dog won fewer games in the previous season than the ranked foe, these dogs have earned an 11-15 record and a solid 18-7-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 17 seasons and since Covid in 2020, this situational betting angle is a perfect 6-0 ATS. Gator head coach Napier is 5-1 ATS pried as a dog and was 10-3 as a dog while at the helm of Louisiana Lafayette; 15-4 ATS for his career. Utes head coach Whittingham is just 21-35 ATS for 38% when priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point favorite. If those games occurred during the first four weeks, Whittingham is just 4-9 ATS for 31%. From the predictive models, we are looking for Florida to score 24 or more points and have a 5 or more-minute advantage in time-of-possession. In past games in which Florida has met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone on to a 45-2 SU record and 35-12 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets and if the game is on the road and they are priced as the dog, 4-2 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS. When Utah has allowed these performance measures, they have gone 4-16 SU and 3-16-1 ATS for 16%. |
|||||||
08-31-23 | NC State v. Connecticut UNDER 47 | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 53 m | Show |
Thursday – North Carolina State vs Connecticut Betting the Under with two teams who lost their last two games of the previous season and with a game total between 45 and 49 points has produced a 32-20 Under record good for 62% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If the home team is priced as the underdog the Under soars to a highly profitable 13-3 for 81% winning bets. |
|||||||
08-24-23 | Rangers +113 v. Twins | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Thursday – Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Betting on teams priced between a -125 favorite and a 125 underdog that are facing an excellent starter that has posted an ERA of 0.00 over his previous three starts has earned a 22-6 record averaging a +111 wager and earning an outstanding 49% ROI since 2016. Yes, that is a great contrarian betting system and we are getting the Rangers cheap given their recent six game losing streak too. The Twins bullpen has been a bit unstable recently compiling a 5.87 ERA and a 1.696 WHIP over their previous seven games. Pablo Lopez will have the ball to start the game and has produced amazing numbers with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.947 WHIP, 3-0 record including 22 strikeouts and just three free passes spanning 19 innings of work. He has worked 6 or more innings in each of his last five starts and has not allowed more than 2 ER in six straight starts. His recent excellence somehow works against him and other starters, who have managed to allow zero earned runs over a 3-start span. Once again, the Twins bullpen imploded Wednesday in an extra-inning loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Twins starter Maeda went 5 innings allowing 3 ER, 2 BB, and 6 Ks. The Twins used four relievers, who allowed a combined 4 ER over 5 innings including two walks and 3 Ks and one home run. The Rangers will start Andrew Heaney, who is 1-0 with a 3.37 ERA and a 1.781 WHIP over his last three starts. He has recorded 122 strikeouts over 118 innings on the season. He is a traditional three-pitch starter featuring a 4-Seam fastball that is used 58%, an excellent slider, used 24%, and a change used 18% and mostly to left-handed hitters. Despite averaging 92.5 MPH with his fastball, the differential in speed to his slider is an optimal 12 MPH making it difficult for any batter, especially RH ones, to identify the pitch. He averages an excellent 27% whiff percentage on all pitches thrown and the Twins have 7 batters that have chase rates of more than 30%. Pablo Lopez has above average spin rates, but not as elite as Heaney, who averages an amazing 2500 RPM with his slider. Lopez has excellent late-breaking sinking action with his fastball. However, the Rangers have 6 batters in the lineup that are averaging 90 MPH exit velocities and understand how to lay off a fastball that is heavy and has late movement that ride up the handle of RH batters. |
|||||||
08-21-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Monday – Seattle Mariners vs CWS Start Time is 8:10 PM EST. Consider betting 7-Units pre-flop using the -1.5-run line and then look for the CWS to score first or retake the lead at any point during the first three innings of action to add the 1-unit on the money line. Betting on favorites of -150 or greater on the money line with the run line that is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.25 or lower on the season and is facing a struggling foe that is scoring just 4.25 or fewer RPG has produced a 23-13 ML record and a 20-16 Run Line record averaging a +105 RL wager and earning a 17% ROI since 2016. The Mariners have caught fire since putting all-star Julio Rodriguez in the leadoff spot of the batting order having won five consecutive games and have won 15 of their last 18 games to close to within three games of Al Division-leading Texas Rangers and with 2.5 games of the reigning world champion Houston Astros. The Mariners hold the third wild card berth by just a ½-game over the Toronto Blue Jays and by three games over the surging Boston Red Sox. The CWS are playing out the remainder of the season and have lost 12 of their last 17 games and allowed 30 runs to the Colorado Rockies in their three set over the weekend. Starting tonight for the CWS is Touki Toussaint, who is just 1-5 in eight starts with a 5.26 ERA and 1.519 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0-2 record with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.954WHIP.
Boston vs Houston |
|||||||
08-21-23 | Red Sox +115 v. Astros | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Boston vs Houston 8-Unit Best bet on the Boston Red Sox using the money line Bet 7-unit son the money line and then look to add a 1-unit amount on the +1.5 run line if the Astros score first or take the lead at any point during the first three innings. James Paxton will be on the hill for the Sox and the left-hander has gone 9-4 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.270 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Astros. He is 7-3 in 16 starts with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP including 93 strikeouts and 23 walks over 86 1/3 innings of work. He is 6-2 in night starts with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP with 78 strikeouts and 17 walks over 68 1/3 innings of work. Betting on any winning record team that is facing a foe coming off a three straight losses to a divisional foe priced as favorites and has won 54 to 60% of their games has gone 43-29 for 60% winners averaging a +111 wager and earning a 24% ROI over the past 15 seasons. If our team is a road dog of any size, they have gone 21-7 for 75% winners averaging a +135 wager and earning a 57% ROI over the past 15 seasons. |
|||||||
08-21-23 | Ravens v. Commanders +1.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders 8-Unit NFLX best bet on the Commanders +1 or the money line. |
|||||||
08-18-23 | Marlins v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Miami Marlins vs LA Dodgers 8-Unit best bet on the UNDER currently priced at 8.5 runs Consider betting the Under or 7-Units preflop and then look for a score in the first inning to add the remaining unit. If no score occurs in the first inning then look for 9.5 runs to bet the Under during the first three innings of play.
Betting the UNDER with a total of 8.5 or more runs with a team, Dodgers, averaging four or more walks-per-game and who have allowed three or fewer runs in each of their two previous games has earned a 127-71-5 Under record good for 64% winning bets since 2019. If the game occurs after the all-star break the Under has gone 19-9-1 for 68% winning bets since 2019. The Dodgers put their 11-game win stream on the line when they face reigning NL Cy Young award winner, Sandy Alcantara. The Dodgers will have Tony Gonsolin on the hill and has gone 8-4 in 19 starts with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.144 WHIP on the season. This season, Alcantara has not put up Cy Young worth numbers. He is just 5-10 in 24 starts with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.181 WHIP including 135 strikeouts spanning 158 1/3 innings of work. However, over the past three starts he has put up impressive numbers with a 1.96 ERA and a 0.783 WHIP including 22 strikeouts, just three walks, over 23 innings of work. He is coming off a complete game 3-1 win over the NY Yankees allowing 1 ER on five hits with two walks and a season-high 10 strikeouts.
|
|||||||
08-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres 8-UNIT BEST BET UNDER the posted total currently at 8.5 runs Betting the Under with a total of 8.5 or more runs with a team that is averaging 4 or more walks-per-game (Padres) and allowed three or fewer runs in each of their two previous games has earned an outstanding 127-71-5 record for 64% winning bets and a 25% ROI over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break the Under has gone 19-9-1 for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. We had an UNDER bet win for us last night in this matchup and going with it again is a solid betting opportunity. Brandon Pfaadt is the #1 pitching prospect for the Diamondbacks and he has been roughed up at the MLB level. However, in five starts since Pfaadt returned from Triple-A Reno, Arizona's fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft has a 4.34 ERA, a 1.207 WHIP and a .261 opponents' batting average. When he was sent out after a disastrous two-plus-inning outing on June 29 against the Tampa Bay Rays, Pfaadt had a 9.82 ERA, a 1.870 WHIP and a .346 opponents' batting average. A change in his positioning on the pitching rubber has greatly improved his attack angles and locating pitches in the best locations in the strike zone more consistently. On Sunday, when he was matched against Lugo in Phoenix, Pfaadt gave up three runs on nine hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. Lugo (4-6, 4.16 ERA) held the Diamondbacks to two runs on six hits and no walks with four strikeouts over five innings. |
|||||||
08-18-23 | Rays v. Angels -107 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Tampa Bay Rays vs LA Angels Betting on home favorites up to -125 using the money line that have lost five straight games to the current foe has produced a 31-19 record averaging a -114 wager and earning a 24% ROI over the past 20 seasons. The Angels have lost five straight games to the Rays with the last win taking place May 10 of the 2022 season. That win was 12-0. The Rays will start Erasmo Ramirez, who is making his second start and will be kept on a short leash. He went three innings in his first start. The Rays bullpen is a mess currently and have posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.588 WHIP over their past seven games. So, this is an excellent situation for the Angels to bounce back with significant offensive output. |
|||||||
08-18-23 | Mariners +141 v. Astros | Top | 2-0 | Win | 141 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Friday – Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Start Time is 8:10 PM EST. Consider betting 7-Units pre-flop using the money line and then look for the Astros to score first or retake the lead at any point during the first three innings of action. Betting on AL road dogs between 125 and 175 using the money line that are starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 on the season and facing a foe that is starting a pitcher that averages 4.5 or more K’s-per-start has produced a 50-54 record for 48% winning bets, but by averaging a 147-underdog wager has earned a solid 18% ROI over the past five seasons. If ther game occurs after the all-star break, these road dogs have gone 19-17 for 53% an has earned a 30.4% ROI over the past five seasons. Julio Rodriguez is hotter than the surface of the sun and he has led the Mariners, 5-2 with a plus-16 run differential against Houston this season, with their torrid play with a 6-4 road victory over the Kansas City Royals on Thursday. Seattle has won six consecutive road series and seven of eight series overall and closed to within 3 1/2 games of the Astros in pursuit of one of two American League wild-card bids. The Mariners center fielder Rodriguez was moved into the leadoff spot and during that seven-game span, Rodriguez is batting .417 with 16 RBIs, including a 5-for-5 effort in the series finale with the Royals that included five RBIs and a go-ahead, three-run home run in the eighth inning. Rodriguez went 12-for-21 with 11 RBIs in the four-game series. |
|||||||
08-18-23 | Sky +3 v. Dream | Top | 67-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
Chicago Sky vs Atlanta Dream Betting on road teams that are averaging 76 or more PPG and facing a foe that is also scoring 76 or more PPG and is coming off a humiliating loss of 15 or more points has earned a 48-31-5 ATS record for 61% winning bets over the past five seasons. Both teams are coming off games and have had 4 days of rest to prepare. In this situation, the query improves to 31-14-1 ASTS for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
08-18-23 | Bengals v. Falcons -6.5 | Top | 13-13 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs Atlanta
Betting on favorites that gained 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt and taking on a foe that allowed 73% pass completion in their previous game has earned a 24-8-2 ATS record for 75% winning bets in the NFL preseason. From the predictive models, the Falcons are 18-3-1 ATS when they have scored 21 to 28 points in a preseason game. The Bengals are an anemic 4-16 ATS for just 20% when they have gained between 250 and 299 total yards in a preseason game. |
|||||||
08-18-23 | Wings +4.5 v. Sun | Top | 95-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Dallas Wings vs Connecticut Sun Betting on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that has a scoring differential between -3 and +3 PPG and facing a foe that are outscoring their foes by three to seven PPG and are coming off a game scoring 80 or more points has earned a n 18-10 ATS record for 64% winning bets since 2011. |
|||||||
08-15-23 | Liberty v. Aces UNDER 177.5 | Top | 82-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
NY Liberty vs Las Vegas So, consider betting 7-units preflop before the game start at the best price you can find, then look to add 1.5 units at 182.5 points and 187.5 points during the first half of action only. Betting the Under in a game with a total of at least 140 points and with the road team coming off two consecutive ats wins priced as the favorite and with their foe coming off a home win has produced a 37-21 Under record good for 64% winning bets since 2011. If the total is priced at 160 or more points, this system has produced a 23-9 UNDER record good for 72% winning bets since 2011. Betting the UNDER in a game with a total of 140 or more points and the home team has covered three of their last four games ATS and is a team that has won 75% or more of their games and is taking on a winning record foe after the 15th game of the regular season has been played has earned an outstanding 33-14 record for 70% winning bets since 2011. If the total is 150 or more points, the Under has gone 30-13 for 70% winning bets since 2011. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Liberty to score 80 or fewer points and shoot 37.5% or lower from beyond the arc. In past games road games priced as the dog and matching or exceeding these performance measures, they have seen the Under go 71-30-2 for 70% winning bets. The Under has gone 34-12-1 Under for 74% winning bets when the Aces have been home favorites and have allowed 80 or fewer points and held the foe to 37.5% shooting or lower since 2019. |
|||||||
08-10-23 | Dream -5 v. Storm | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Thursday: Atlanta Dream vs Seattle Storm 8-Unit best bet on the Dream plus the points. Betting on teams that are facing a losing record team that are coming off a double-digit home loss and is non-conference foe have earned a solid 49-17 SU (74%) record and 43-21-2 ATS for 67% winning bets. If our team is on the road, they have then gone 23-10 SUATS for 70% winners. Plus, if more than 15 or more games of the regular season have been completed the record improves to 16-7 (70%) and 17-6 ATS for 74% winning bets. |
|||||||
08-10-23 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks +12.5 | Top | 38-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Blue Bombers vs Edmonton Elks (Thursday) 8-UNIT BEST BET on the Elks plus the double-digit amount of points I recommend placing 85% of your normal bet size on the Elks pre flop (before the game starts) and is currently offered at 12 points and then add the remaining 15% if the Blue Bombers score first during the first half of action. Betting on winless teams that are coming off a horrid game scoring nine or fewer points have gone 6-9 SU and 10-5 ATS for 67% covering the spread by an average of 6.7 PPG. |
|||||||
08-10-23 | Royals v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Thursday – Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Consider splitting this 8-Unit amount into two parts consisting of a 6-Unit amount using the -1.5-run line and then add a 2-Unit amount on the -1.5-run line if the Red Sox fall behind at any point during the first three innings of action. Betting on home teams using the -1.5-run line that has an on-base-percentage of 0.260or lower spanning their last three games and with their bullpen struggling to an ERA of 7.00 or worse over their last 10 games has produced an outstanding 50-26-1 record for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
08-10-23 | Lynx -2 v. Fever | Top | 73-91 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Thursday: Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever 8-Unit best bet on the Lynx minus the points
Betting on road favorites in matchup of faster than average pace with both teams coming into the game averaging 62 or more shots per game, after game number 20 has been played and with our road favorite coming off a game in which they made 50% or more of their shot attempts has produced a 67-27-2 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets since 2011. This algorithm betting system has never had a losing record season. |
|||||||
08-10-23 | Texans v. Patriots +3.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
New England Patriots vs Houston Texans Betting on NFLX dogs between one and 6.5 points that are form the AFC Conference and facing a team from the AFC South have earned an outstanding 38-17-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2004 or 20 years. It has not lost, though, since 2016, going a remarkable 16-0 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 9.81 points-per-game. |
|||||||
08-01-23 | Dream +14 v. Aces | Top | 72-93 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces 10-Unit best bet on Atlanta Dream plus the double-digit of points over the Aces. Betting on a road team that played Over the total by 18 or more points in each of their two previous games in games played from May 1 to the end of the regular season has earned a 17-17 record, 22-11-1 ATS for 67% winning bets, and a solid 21-13 Over-Under record for 62%. If our road dog is priced at 6 or more points, they have gone just 3-9 SU, but 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets and 8-4 Over for 67%. I four road dog is priced at any size dog and the total is at least 165 points, their record has gone 3-5 SU and 6-2 ATS and 7-1 Over-Under for 88% cashed tickets. Last, if our road dog played Over the total by 20 or more points in each of their last two games, they have produced a 3-8 SU record and 8-2-1 ATS mark good for 80% cashed tickets. |
|||||||
08-01-23 | Guardians v. Astros -173 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Tuesday – Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros The Astros are an 8-Unit best bet using the run line over the Guardians. The recommended strategy is to place 6-unit son the run line and then add 2-units using the money line if the Guardians score first during the first three innings of this game. Betting on home favorites in a non-divisional clash that have scored 25 or more runs over their last three games and with a total between seven and nine runs and the game is NOT the last game of a series has earned a 64-17 ML record (79%) averaging a -200 wager and earning a 24% ROI and a 52-29 record for 64% averaging a 105 wager on the -1.5 run line and earning a 25% ROI since 2011. Bet the Astros as an 8-Unit best bet Tuesday night using the run line. |
|||||||
08-01-23 | Mets v. Royals +136 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 136 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Tuesday – Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros The Astros are an 8-Unit best bet using the run line over the Guardians. The recommended strategy is to place 6-unit son the run line and then add 2-units using the money line if the Guardians score first during the first three innings of this game. Betting on home favorites in a non-divisional clash that have scored 25 or more runs over their last three games and with a total between seven and nine runs and the game is NOT the last game of a series has earned a 64-17 ML record (79%) averaging a -200 wager and earning a 24% ROI and a 52-29 record for 64% averaging a 105 wager on the -1.5 run line and earning a 25% ROI since 2011. Bet the Astros as an 8-Unit best bet Tuesday night using the run line. Kansas City vs NY Mets Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets 8-UNIT BEST BET on the Kansas City Royals using the money line.I recommend placing 85% of your normal bet size on the Royals pre flop (before the game starts) and then add the remaining 15% at any point over the first three innings that the Royals are trailing. This means adding at that moment, not when the ½ inning concludes, that the Mets take the lead in the first three innings. Betting on teams that are coming off a three-game sweep against a divisional foe and now playing in an inter-league game have gone a quite impressive 46-11 averaging a +105 wager and earning a 52% ROI over the last five seasons. Betting on all underdogs of +140 or more that is starting a pitcher in poor form sporting an ERA of 7 or higher over his last five starts and taking on a foe that is allowing an average of just 4.5 or more RPG has earned a solid 45-35 record averaging a +171 wager and earning a 35% ROI over the last five seasons. The veteran and seemingly ageless Zack Greinke will be on the hill for the Royals tonight. |
|||||||
08-01-23 | Reds v. Cubs -159 | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs If our foe has a winning record the system record soars to a remarkable 29-11 averaging a -153 wager and earning a 24% ROI. |
|||||||
07-27-23 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Thursday Night 10-Unit best bet on the UNDER |
|||||||
07-25-23 | Mets v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
New York Mets vs New York Yankees
8-Unit best bet Over the posted total of 8.5 runs The following betting system has earned a 38-24-3 Over record good for 61% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet the Over with an AL team that is scoring between 4.3 and 4.6 RPG and is starting a pitcher with solid control sporting a WHIP of 1.200 and facing a NL foe that is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or lower.
How ironic that the last time the Subway Series last arrived in the Bronx on Aug. 22, the New York Mets and New York Yankees were division leaders and a combined 61 games over .500, resulting in buzz about the possibility of the intracity rivals meeting in the World Series. The Yanks are 2.5 games out of a possible wild card berth and with the trading deadline looming, it will be quite interesting to see if they do become buyers in the market and specifically go after Ohtani. Player Prop Bets |
|||||||
07-23-23 | Dodgers -113 v. Rangers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
The Dodgers Are Who We Thought They Are
Despite the large number of injuries to the Dodger’s pitching staff, they are taking control of the NL West Division race. They are 17 games over .500 with a 57-40 record and have stretched their division-leading lead to four games over the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers have won 69% of their games played in July ranking third-best behind the surging Boston Red Sox (73%) and Milwaukee Brewers (71%). Even more impressive is that the Dodgers have won road series against the first-place Baltimore Orioles and now the first-place Texas Rangers that concludes a 9-game road trip today. The Dodgers starting rotation includes names no one expected to see lumped together this season. Bobby Miller started Saturday’s 16-3 blowout win over the Rangers and completed six innings allowing three earned runs for a quality start. In 10 starts, Miller is 6-1 with a 4.28 ERA allowing 49 hits, 16 walks, and striking out 53 batters spanning 54 2/3 innings of work. Sunday’s starter is scheduled to be Emmet Sheehan, who is 3-0 in five starts with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.169 WHIP including 11 walks and 18 strikeouts spanning 25 2/3 innings of work. He has a 95 MPH fastball, 87 MPH slider, and a 82 MPH changeup used against left-handed batters. He throws the fastball 65% of all pitches and you can expect the Rangers lineup to be looking at attacking that first pitch offering. Sheehan may get into trouble early, but the Dodgers bullpen has been expectational posting a 1.03 ERA and a 0.949 WHIP spanning 26 1/3 innings of work over their last seven games. Their best relievers are all available today having needed none of them in yesterday’s blowout win. The Rangers will send left-hander Martin Perez to the hill to make his 19th start of the season. He has posted a mediocre 4.84 ERA and 1.500 WHIP with 36 walks and 62 strikeouts spanning 96 2/3 innings of work. However, he has struggled in his three most recent starts posting an 8.03 ERA and a 1.865 WHIP including eight walks and just six strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings of work. He will be making his ninth day start of the season and has posted a terrible 7.54 ERA and a 1.865 WHIP with 15 walks and 19 strikeouts over 37 innings of work. The Rangers and Dodgers rank first and second respective in scoring offense at 5.78 RPG and 5.71 RPG on the season. Both starters may not even make it into the fifth inning and for that reason I like the Dodgers will the monumentally better bullpen in this matchup. The following situational betting system has earned a 43-30 record for 59% winning bets that have averaged a +118 wager for a 24% ROI in bets made over the past five seasons. The requirements are to be on NL road teams that are averaging at least 4.5 RPG on the season and facing a foe from the AL that is scoring at least 5.4 RPG. Drilling down a bit further, if the game is the last game of the series, the road teams have gone 16-10 for 62% winning tickets averaging a +114 wager and earning highly profitable 28% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons.
Bet Martin Perez Over 2.5 walks allowed +127 at Caesars Bet Max Muncy to hit a home run +310 at PointsBet Bet Chris Taylor Over 0.5 RBI +195 at BetMGM |
|||||||
07-18-23 | Padres -126 v. Blue Jays | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10-UNIT Best Bet on the San Diego Padres using the money line when take on the Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday. |
|||||||
07-17-23 | Dodgers v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
Monday – Dodgers vs Orioles Under 9.5 runs. Orioles are 41-25 Under when facing a NL foe that si scoring at least 4.5 RPG in games played in the second half of the season over the past 25 seasons. The Dodgers bullpen has been outstanding posting a 1.61 ERA and a 0.965 WHIP over their past seven games. The Orioles have been quite goods too, sporting a 2.25 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP over their last seven games |
|||||||
07-13-23 | Hamilton v. Edmonton Elks +1 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Hamilton vs Edmonton (CFL) 8-Unit best bet on Edmonton plus the 1.5 points or the money line when they take on Hasmilton tonight in CFL action. |
|||||||
07-09-23 | Dream v. Sky UNDER 167.5 | Top | 88-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
WNBA: Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky |
|||||||
07-09-23 | Montreal v. BC OVER 45.5 | Top | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Montreal vs British Columbia 8-Unit best bet OVER the posted total. |
|||||||
07-09-23 | Aces -11.5 v. Lynx | 113-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Las Vegas Aces vs Minnesota Lynx |
|||||||
07-09-23 | Braves v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 105 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
8-UNIT Best Bet OVER the total when the Atlanta Braves take on the Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday. |
|||||||
07-06-23 | Orioles -117 v. Yankees | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
10-Unit best bet on the Baltimore Orioles using the money line when take on the New York Yankees Thursday with the first pitch set for 7:05 PM EST. Despite playing in the early evening, the weather temps will be just off the highs of the days in the region. |
|||||||
07-05-23 | Mariners v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
8-Unit Best bet on the Over in the finale of the inter-league matchup between the Seattle Mariners and San Francisco Giants. |
|||||||
07-05-23 | Fever v. Lynx -1.5 | Top | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
WNBA: Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever |
|||||||
07-05-23 | Braves v. Guardians OVER 10 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
8-Unit best bet on the OVER in the Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians matchup. We got the win yesterday in extra innings with the Guardians winning a dramatic walk-off win. Bet the Over in a game in which the home team won the previous game in walk-off fashion and now playing the last game of their series and priced as a dog between 135 and 160 has earned a 44-22-5 record for 67% winning bets. |
|||||||
07-05-23 | Phillies +114 v. Rays | Top | 8-4 | Win | 114 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
8-Unit best bet on the Philadelphia Phillies using the money line when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays |
|||||||
06-29-23 | Marlins v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10-Unit best bet OVER the total, currently priced at 9 runs and is valid at any price you are offered when the Boston Red Sox take on the Miami Marlins set to start at 6:40 PM EST, Thursday. I also like a run getting scored in the first inning using a pizza money sized bet. Red Sox are 11-5 that a run is scored in the first inning the past two seasons following a loss and now priced as a favorite of no more than -150. |
|||||||
06-27-23 | Guardians -131 v. Royals | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
10-Unit Best Bet on the Cleveland Guardians using the money line as they take on the Kansas City Royals. Betting AGAINST home teams priced between a 125 and 150 underdog who is facing a foe that has batted .270 or better over their previous 20 games and whose bullpen did not allow a run in their previous game have gone 17-2 for 90% winners since 2004. They have averaged a -152 bet and have earned a highly profitable 65% ROI. An extremely rare situation, but one that has done remarkably well for 20 seasons. Cleveland ranks in the middle of the pile of 30 MLB teams per my power ratings. Their opponent, though, ranks near dead last or last in many of my performance measures. The Royals rank 29th winning just 28% of their games, 28th scoring 3.78 RPG, 25th averaging 12.71 total bases per game, and 28th with a –122 run differential. What IU truly like about the Guardians is that despite being dead last in home runs averaging 0.65 per game, the rank 7th averaging 1.82 doubles per game. Doubles have become the most important extra-base-hit and not only put a man in an immediate scoring position but optimize multiple run-scoring innings too. The Guardian bats are hitting 0.286 and scoring 5.3 RPG over their last seven games. Royals batters are hitting just 0.230 and scoring 3.7 RPG when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. |
|||||||
06-27-23 | Twins v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
8-Unit best bet on the OVER in the Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves matchup starting Tuesday. Betting the OVER with a NL team that is scoring between 4.3 and 4.6 RPG and starting apitcher with a 1.200 or lower WHIP and facing an AL team starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or lower has earned a solid 36-20-3 record good for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. Since 2016, there has been just one losing record season and that was in 2018 when it went 5-6, which is barely losing. |
|||||||
06-27-23 | Reds v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Orioles vs Reds |
|||||||
06-25-23 | Nationals v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Washington vs San Diego |
|||||||
06-25-23 | Mets v. Phillies -163 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Zack Wheeler will be on the hill for the Phillies and he is 6-4 in 15 starts with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.114 WHIP including 20 walks and 98 strikeouts spanning 88 innings of work. He has pitched remarkably well over his last three starts posting a remarkable 0.47 ERA and a 0.776 WHIP including four walks and 19 strikeouts spanning 19 1/34 innings of work. |
|||||||
06-25-23 | Twins -133 v. Tigers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Detroit |
|||||||
06-17-23 | Reds +107 v. Astros | Top | 10-3 | Win | 107 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
10-UNIT Best Bet on the Cincinnati Reds to defeat the Houston Astros using the money line. |
|||||||
06-12-23 | Marlins v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners |
|||||||
06-10-23 | Red Sox +113 v. Yankees | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Red Sox vs Yankees Red Sox ranks 6th scoring 4.98 RPG, 7th in total bases, 6th in hits per game, and first in doubles per game. With the elimination of the defensive shift, doubles have become even more valuable than the home run. Doubles get men instantly in scoring position, can already have scored men and put themselves in scoring position, or can dictate the start to a multiple-run scoring inning. So, this is a monumental advantage for the Red Sox in this series. |
|||||||
06-10-23 | Dodgers v. Phillies +101 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
Los Angeles vs Philadelphia |
|||||||
06-10-23 | Diamondbacks v. Tigers +115 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
Arizona vs Detroit 8-Unit Bet on the Detroit Tigers using the money line |
|||||||
06-07-23 | Royals v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres (Wednesday) This is on eof the thirty-three betting situations that comprise the fully automated and 100% OBJECTIVE betting portfolio that has been selling for just $99.00 for the rest of the MLB season and since you are already a subscriber, I will take off another $20 bucks today only and the cost to you is a paltry $79.00 for all of baseball to the all-star break! From the predictive models we are expecting the Mariners and Padres to each have at least one multiple-run inning and for the starters to combine for fewer than 11 innings of work, In past road games, the Over is 156-24-3 for 87% winning bets when the Mariners have met these performance measures and in home games, the Padres are 128-21-5 Over for 86% winning bets. |
|||||||
06-04-23 | A's v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Okland vs Miami There are many statistical aberrations each MLB season that moves the market and value of the teams that offer highly profitable betting opportunities. The A’s have been outscored by 210 runs on the season, scoring an anemic 201 runs while allowing 411 runs. The following betting system exploits specific opportunties betting against these teams in games played in June. The system supports bets on the Overs and has earned a 10-4-1 record for 71.4% winning bets. The requirements are to bet the Over with a team that is favored by no more than –195 on the money line and facing a foe that has been outscored by 150 or more runs with the game played in the month of June. The Starting Pitchers in this Matchup The Marlins will have their ace, Sandy Alcantara, on the hill, and has struggled mightily this season. He threw an enormous number of pitches over the past two seasons and has the most complete games of any other starter in MLB. He has posted a 2-5 record in 11 starts with a terrible 5.06 ERA and a 1.269 WHIP including 25 walks and 60 strikeouts spanning 69 1/3 innings of work. Since pitching a complete game 9-0 shutout against Minnesota on April 4, he has allowed two earned runs in nine consecutive starts. Alcantara maintains an electric fastball that ranks in the 95th percentile of all starters, but the movement and spin rates are down from his average amounts this season. This is reflected in the fact that he is allowing a 41% hard hit percentage, which is the highest since his rookie season. Don’t ever forget that the A’s despite having just 12 wins have MLB caliber players on their roster. They would not be at this level or even Triple-A ball if they were not talented players. So, I do see the A’s scoring a few runs today facing Alcantara. Paul Blackburn will be on the hill for the A’s and making his second start of the season. He was the starting pitcher in the A’s 7-2 win over the Braves. His fastball averages 91 MPH and has an array of other pitches that keep batters on their toes. My take is to watch the first inning or two and look for the Marlins to be looking to take his offerings to the opposite field. If they are, and there is no score at the end of the first inning, then adding an additional bet on the Over using the money line is an exceptional opportunity. The Betting Strategy for this Game My plan is to bet 60% preflop Over the posted total currently offered at 7.5 runs paying –115 vig by FanDuel. If the first inning is scoreless then the total will drop to 7 or preferably 6.5 runs. I will add 20% more at a price of 6.5 runs. Then if the scoring continues to be anemic and we will get a chance to bet Over 5.5 runs at any point during the first five innings. If the scoring erupts., then we will not get the 20% remaining bet placed, but we will have 80% placed at exceptional price levels. Player Props I am Betting Pizza Money On When I mention a pizza money bet, it is just that, betting the cost of a single pizza $15 to $25 depending on how toppings you may like on your pizza. Points is these are small bets, but ones that will add to your total profits over the course of the season. Bet Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +127 at Caesars |
|||||||
05-31-23 | Yankees +130 v. Mariners | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Betting on any AL team that is batting no better than 0.260 for the season and has scored seven or more runs in three consecutive games has earned a highly profitable 154-94 averaging a –103 wager and earning a 17.25% ROI since the start of the 2004 season. If our team is priced as the dog, the record improves to 54-46 averaging a +139 wager and earning a 26% ROI. Moreover, if our dog is priced between 125 and 175 on the money line, they get even better producing a 26-15 record averaging a +151 wager and earning a 59% ROI. The Dime bettor has made $67,200 betting on this situational system and has not had a losing season ever. Here is a second situational betting system that has earned a 58-25 record averaging a +142 wager and earning an outstanding 33% ROI. The requirements are to bet on road dogs between 125 and 175 that is facing a starter in solid form posting a WHIP of 1.100 or lower spanning his last ten starts and has posted as 1.100 or better WHIP for the current season. |
|||||||
05-28-23 | Lynx v. Aces OVER 169.5 | Top | 73-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Las Vegas WNBA Betting the Over in a matchup in which the road team is coming off a loss to a divisional foe while the host is coming off a win over a divisional foe and with a total of at least 140 points has earned a highly profitable 40-15-3 Over record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
05-23-23 | A's +220 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Oakland A’s vs Seattle Mariners |
|||||||
05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 215.5 | Top | 116-99 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat The Celtics gave up. Period. They scored 63 points through three quarters. A team with a high payroll and those high-priced players had no chance of containing FOUR undrafted Heat players. So, just five days ago, a franchise picked as heavy favorites to advance to the NBA Finals, and now a franchise in chaos. Blame will be assigned to many within the organization and players and moves and firings will take place. Jaylen Brown, who is just 2-for20 from beyond the arc in the first three games of this series will most assuredly be traded. He will command a $280MM extension and there will be many teams, the 76ers one of the leaders, that would welcome Brown with open arms to pair up with Maxey. So, the Celtic launched 98 shot attempts and made 40% of them in Game 3. The Heat took 81 shots and made 57% of them. The Celtics were outscored in the paint 52-42. The Celtics' biggest lead was three points and that occurred early in the first quarter. The Heat led by as many as 33 points in a game that Boston was highly expected to show up and get a huge dominating win. Thank goodness we were on the Heat again. From the predictive model, the Heat has seen the OVER post a 25-5 record for 83% cashed tickets when scoring 111 or more points and committing 12 or fewer turnovers in home games spanning the past three seasons. |
|||||||
05-23-23 | Giants v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Minnesota |
|||||||
05-23-23 | Sun v. Mystics OVER 159 | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Connecticut vs Washington |
|||||||
05-23-23 | White Sox +120 v. Guardians | Top | 4-2 | Win | 120 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
CWS vs Cleveland |
|||||||
05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Miami vs Boston From the predictive model, we are expecting Miami to shoot better than Boston and to have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past road games in which Miami met these performance measures has earned them a 63-11 SU record, 64-10 ATS mark (87%) winning bets in road games played in the past five seasons. In road playoff games, the Heat have gone 20-0 SU and 18-2 ATS for 90%. In playoff games, the Celtics are 1-11 SUATS when not shooting better than their foe and having the worse assist-to-turnover ratio spanning the past five seasons. |
|||||||
05-19-23 | Cubs v. Phillies -122 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -122 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies The Cubs will have Marcus Stroman on the hill, who has posted a 2-4 record with a 3.24 ERA and 1.18 WHIP including 19 walks and 47 strikeouts over 50 innings pitched. The Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez, who will be making his secod start of the season after returning from the injury list. He allowed three earned runs over four innings of work in the loss to the Coloardo Rockies. The Phillies are 19-11 in home games when on a two game losing streak averaging a –137 wager when Bryce Harper has had two or fewer hits over his two previous games played spanning the last three seasons. When Harper and fellow teammate Kyle Schwarber are coming off a game in which both had no more than a single hit, the Phillies are 24-13 averaging a –136 favorite in home games played over the past three seasons. A Highly Profitable Situational Super System The following situational super system has produced a 75-39 record for 66% winning bets averaging a –115 wager and earning a highly profitable 24% ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team winning between 45 and 50% of their games that has lost four or five of their last six games and is playing a struggling team winning between 40 and 45% of their games. Drilling deeper into the data if the guest is a divisional foe the record soars to 44-16 for 73% winning tickets averaging a –117 wager and earning a 37% ROI over the past five seasons. Bet the Phillies Friday. |
|||||||
05-15-23 | Twins v. Dodgers -112 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Minnesota vs LA Dodgers Betting on teams that allowed two or fewer runs in each of their past two games and facing a foe coming off a slugfest in which 15 or more runs were scored has earned a 52-32 record averaging a –100 bet and earning a 17% ROI over the past five seasons. If our team ws the host, the record soars to 33-9 for a 44% ROi over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
05-15-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox +107 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Seattle vs Boston |
|||||||
05-15-23 | Angels v. Orioles +115 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
LA Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Only five current players on the Orioles roster have faced Ohtani but have batted a combined 0.500 against him. Adam Frazier has 8 at bats and four hits, Cedric Mullins is 2-for 3 with a homerun and Anthony Santander is 2-for-2 with a home run. Baltimore’s bullpen is far superior to the Angles. They allow 31% of inherited runners to score. The Angels pen allows 50% ranking third worst in MLB. Betting on home teams priced between a 125 dog and –125 favorite that have won four of their last five games in the first game of a series has earned a 28-16 record for 64% and earning a highly profitable 27% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. |
|||||||
05-12-23 | Warriors +3 v. Lakers | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Golden State Warriors vs LA Lakers Since 2013, the Warriors are 9-3 SU (75%) and 10-2 ATS for 83% winners when facing elimination. |
|||||||
05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Golden State Warriors vs LA Lakers Since 2013, the Warriors are 9-3 SU (75%) and 10-2 ATS for 83% winners when facing elimination. |
|||||||
05-12-23 | Knicks v. Heat -6 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Knicks vs Heat |
|||||||
05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
LA Lakers vs Golden State Warriors 8-Unit best bet on the Warriors minus the points. I like the strategy of betting 60% preflop at the current price and then looking to add 20% more at Warriors – 4.5 and Warriors –1.5 points. Betting on any team off a loss of three or fewer points to a divisional foe and with that foe having covered the spread in their last two games priced as a favorite has earned an outstanding 21-6 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 27 seasons. Betting on any playoff team trailing in the series 3 games to one, coming off a heart-breaking loss by three or fewer points and is now the favorite up to and including -9.5 points has earned a perfect 7-0 SUATS record. |
|||||||
05-05-23 | Devils +110 v. Hurricanes | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
NJ Devils vs Carolina Hurricanes |
|||||||
05-05-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 114-102 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
Boston vs Philadelphia Game-3 Philadelphia is 12-2 ATS revenging a road loss in games played this season, and 15-5 ATS when revenging a loss in which the foe scored 110 or more points this season. From the predictive models, we are looking for the 76ers to score 114 or more points and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. In past games in which the 76ers met these performance measures have led them to post a 116-13 SU (90%) record and 97-31-1 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break and playoffs, the 76ers are 34-3 SU and 28-8-1 ATS. The Celtics have posted a money-losing 6-17 SU and 6-15-2 ATS record (29%) when allowing 114 or more points and the lower assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the past five seasons. |