Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-04-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M UNDER 151.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
Alabama vs Texas A&M The two best teams in the SEC Conference square off in this showdown, but there is nothing at stake. Alabama is the #1 seed with a 16-4 conference record and A&M is locked in the #2 seed heading into the SEC Tournament this week. Alabama has used only 3 different starting lineups this season and the quintet of Bediako, Bradley, Clowney, Miller, and Spears have amassed a 17-3 record. They will start today against A&M. Top-10 road teams in a matchup facing a foe that is ranked between 11 and 25, both teams have won 20 or more games, but the team ranked in the Top-10 has lost fewer games than the foe and are priced between the 3’s are 29-14-3 ATS for 67.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s, have allowed 80 or more points in each of their last two games, and facing a foe that has played four consecutive games in which they and their foes scored fewer than 70 points. Alabama vs Texas A&M For the in-game betting parlay look to get ‘Bama at +6.5 and the total Under at 157.5 points. This pair of prices may not occur during the first half of the action and if it doesn’tthen so be it and resist the temptation to force the bet. |
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03-03-23 | Hurricanes v. Coyotes +297 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
Carolina vs Artizona |
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02-28-23 | Bruins v. Flames +125 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Calgary Flames hosting the Boston Bruins 8 unit best bet on the Calgary Flames using the money line currently priced at plus 115. The fatigue factor is building on the Boston Bruins and it does so on any team down the stretch. Betting against any team using the money line that has won eight or more of their last ten games but is playing their third road game in four days has gone 35-12 over the last five seasons for 74% winning bets. |
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02-28-23 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Nebraska versus Michigan State 8 unit best bet on Nebraska plus the four points. Michigan State is 0-6 against the spread in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after the midway point of this season. Michigan State is also 15-31 against the spread in road games when playing against a team that has won 51 to 60% of their games after the 15th game of the season spanning the last 25 seasons. from the predictive model Nebraska is expected to shoot between 48 and 52% in this game. Michigan State is just 4-18 against the spread when their opponents make 48 to 52% of their shots in games played over the last three seasons. Over the past 25 seasons, Nebraska is 110-44 against the spread when they shoot 48 to 52% from the field.
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02-28-23 | Bucks v. Nets +6.5 | Top | 118-104 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Brooklyn Nets hosting the Milwaukee Bucks 8 unit best bet on the net plus the points. Since the trade that sent All Star Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns the Nets have had time to rebuild their lineup which has the potential to play much better down the stretch. The bucks have won fourteen consecutive games and are now at 43 wins and 17 losses for the season. He had come from behind to get the last win against the Phoenix Suns at home price says 2 1/2 point favorites in a game in which they shot just 43.7% from the field and were outrebounded 55-45 in the game. The predictive model sees Brooklyn having a great shot to win the game and end the 14 game win streak of the bucks tonight at the Barclay center. The Nets are expected to shoot better than 48% from the field tonight and that is certainly good news. Milwaukee over the last three seasons is just 20-45 against the spread when allowing 48% or higher shooting. The Nets are also 66-30 against the spread in games in which they score 115 or more points. Bet the Nets. |
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02-28-23 | Boston College v. Wake Forest -8 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
Wake Forest vs BC 8-Unit bet on Wake Forest minus 8 points Wake Forest is one of the better teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season averaging 77.5 points per game which also ranks 32nd best nationally. They have outscored their opponents by 3.6 points per game as compared to Boston College getting outscored by 3.6 points per game. Boston College has a .992 assist to turnover ratio ranking 199th in the nation. Wake Forest has a tremendous advantage in ball handling even though they rank 117th in assist the turnover ratio at 1.101. Week four is ranked 25th in effective field goal percentage as compared to beat Boston colleges 226th ranking an opponent effective field goal percentage. Wake Forest has a tremendous advantage on the offensive end and I think they win this game comfortably by 10 or more points. Wake Forest is 10-1 against the spread in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. They are also 20-8-1 against the spread when facing teams that are attempting 18 or fewer free throws per game in all games played over the last two seasons. Boston College is a miserable 8-20 against the spread after covering the spread in two of their last three games in games played over the last three seasons. |
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02-26-23 | Rutgers v. Penn State -2.5 | Top | 59-56 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Rutgers vs Penn State 8-Unit best bet on Penn State minus the 3 points. The following betting algorithm has earned a 45-28-3 ASTS record for 62% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: The game is lined between the 3’s The team we are betting on is coming off two road wins The opponent is coming off a home loss to a conference foe If our team is favored by 4.5 or fewer points including pick-em, they are 45-25-3 ATS for 65% wins and if a conference matchup, our team is 44-23-3 ATS for 67% wins. Penn State has the third most efficient offense in the nation. For instance, they rank 3rd with a 1.671 assist-to-turnover ratio and 5th best with a 56.3% effective field goal percentage. They will be facing one of the best defenses in the Big Tenand nationally.Rutgers ranks 7th nationally in scoring defense allowing 59.8 points per game and7th best allowing a 45.2% effective field goal percentage. Penn State's perimeter game that ranks 7th best nationally making 39.2% of their shots from beyond the arc and even higher in their home games they'll stretch the Rutgers defense out far too much from the paint area. This will open up cutters down the baseline for easy layups and dunks. |
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02-26-23 | Lightning v. Penguins +100 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins 8-Unit Bets Bet on the Penguins using the money line currently priced at +100. If the Penguins move to a favorite of not more than –120 simply reduce this bet to a 7-Unit amount and if it would move past a –120 favorite then do not make the play. Betting on any winning record team priced at +100 or higher on the money line and with a total price at 6 or 6.5 goals, is facing a foe coming off a rod win over a divisional opponent and has won between 60 and 70% of their games on the season, has earned a 23-23 record averaged a +134 money line wager and earned a highly profitable 18.4% ROi annualized ROI over the past 10 seasons. The Over has earned a 22-12-2 record for 65% wins over the past five seasons. |
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02-26-23 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
Suns vs Bucks 5-Unit Over the total (optional) Suns are 5-1 ATS in road games with a total of 230 or more points this season. 16-3 Over in this situation since 2020. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Suns to score at least 115 points and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. They currently have the fourth best in the NBA for the 2022 season, a 1.92. In past road games in which the Suns met or exceeded these performance measures have seen them go 35-5 SU and 29-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past three seasons. Milwaukee ranks a distant 25th with a 1.656 assist-to-turnover ratio. So, we re going with the much better ball-handling team in a short-lined game – meaning priced between the 3’s. Over the last two seasons, the Phoenix Suns are 35-20 against the spread when facing a strong passing team that averages 23 or more assists per game and games played in the second half of the season spanning the last two seasons. |
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02-19-23 | Jets +110 v. Devils | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Winnipeg Jets vs new Jersy Devils 8-Unit best Bet on the Jets using the money line, currently priced at +120 Betting on winning record road dogs facing a host that has won 59 to 70% of their games and is coming off a road win over a divisional foe has earned a 67-60 record, averaged a +130-dog bet and made the $100 bettor $3,830 since 2015 and a juicy 23% annualized ROI. Betting on winning record dogs that are playing just their second game in the past five days has earned a solid 84-82 record averaging a +124 dog and producing a 15% ROI over the past five seasons. |
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02-19-23 | Iowa -1.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 60-80 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
Iowa vs Northwestern 8-Unit Best bet on Iowa using the spread or money line. Bettor’s choice NW is 5-21 ATS in home games coming off a home win over a conference rival. NW has won four straight and covered the spread in each one and most recently defeated Indiana 64-62 as a 2.5-point home underdog. Somehow, they shot just 37% from the field and had 12 more shot attempts than Indiana in that win. That won’t be the case here against Iowa, who likes to get the pace up ranking 80-th nationally of the 363 D-1 teams, while NW ranks 261st in pace of play. Further, NW is 2-10 ATS in home games coming off a home win of three or fewer points. |
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02-19-23 | Tulsa +14 v. Temple | Top | 53-76 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 8 m | Show |
Tulsa vs Temple 8-Unit bet on Tulsa University plus the 14 points Betting on road underdogs between 10 and 19.5 points that the total has played Under by 30 or more points over their past five games, and going up against a favorite that is coming off a humbly type of game losing to the spread by 18 or more points has earned a 30-10-1 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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02-19-23 | Ohio State +12.5 v. Purdue | Top | 55-82 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Ohio State vs Purdue 8-Unit Bet on Ohio State plus the double-digits and you know, why not sprinkle the money line just a bit. Yes, it is a reach to expect OSU to pull off a shocking road win after the stretch of 12 games they have endured. Still, they are outscoring their opponents too, which is mind-blowing. They average 74 PPG and surrender 67.3 PPG for the season. They shoot 36% from beyond the arc, which is 3% better than Purdue and average the same number of made 3’s as Purdue at 7 per game. So, I can’t pass up, this opportunity to take on a pure bread program that is vastly underrated now by the markets. My predictive models have sounded off all the alarms and sometimes a bet that looks like an ugly dog with fleas oftentimes does turn out to be the real deal and can play with a sense of pride and ‘moxy’. Bet on road teams that are coming off two consecutive losses by 15 or more points and in a matchup of even offenses averaging 67 to 75 PPG on the season has earned a 65-36-2 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. |
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02-18-23 | North Dakota State +14 v. Oral Roberts | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
North Dakota State vs Oral Roberts (8 ET) 8-Unit bet on North Dakota State plus the 14 points Betting on double-digit road underdogs that have allowed 33% shooting to their previous opponent and now facing a hot shooting team making at least 47% of their shots in each of their past three games has earned an incredible 37-16 ASTS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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02-18-23 | Gonzaga v. Pepperdine +16.5 | Top | 97-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
Gonzaga vs Pepperdine (7 ET) 8-Unit best bet on Pepperdine plus the 16 points Road teams that have scored 85 or more points in three consecutive games are favored by 15 or more points and facing a host that is playing on at least 3 days of rest are an imperfect 0-8 ATS since 2013. Gonzaga is 1-8 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread this season and 1-7 ATS following a game in which they led by 15 or more points at the half. |
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02-18-23 | Hofstra v. Stony Brook +12.5 | Top | 68-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Gonzaga vs Pepperdine (7 ET) 8-Unit best bet on Pepperdine plus the 16 points Road teams that have scored 85 or more points in three consecutive games are favored by 15 or more points and facing a host that is playing on at least 3 days of rest are an imperfect 0-8 ATS since 2013. Gonzaga is 1-8 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread this season and 1-7 ATS following a game in which they led by 15 or more points at the half. |
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02-18-23 | Stetson v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 144.5 | Top | 88-84 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Florida Gulf Coast vs Stetson (6 ET) 8-Unit bet Under the total currently priced at 143.5 points The same Total system supporting the Under bet in the North Florida and Austin Peay game applies to this one as well. FGCU has lost to the spread by 53.5 points over their last 10 games while Stetson has played over the total by 57 points over their previous 5 games. FGCU head coach Patrick Chambers is 21-12 Under following a game in which his team made 78% or more of their free throw attempts. He coached 7 seasons at Boston University for two seasons 2010-11, then went to Penn State from 2012-2020 and is now in his second season with FGCU. |
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02-18-23 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech -5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Virginia Tech 5 EST 8-Unit Bet on Virginia Tech minus the 5 points Did you know that teams that have won 70% or more of their games against the spread in games played in February and March are 2-12 SUATS for 14% over the past 10 seasons? Pittsburgh is the only team currently over 70% ATS wins this season and are at 73% ATS right now. Pittsburgh head coach Capel III is just 13-28 ATS in the second half of the season when taking on a team that averages 21 or more 3-point shot attempts for his career; 5-12 ATS when facing an excellent ball handling team averaging 12 or fewer turnovers per game. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles -1 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles 10-Unit 5% Max Best bet on the Eagles From my Predictive Models, 85% probability that Eagles score 28 and have same or fewer turnovers. Teamsin Super Bowls are 10-3 SUATS | 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS for Eagles last three seasons. Chiefs are 8-7 SU and 4-11 ATS 27% when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or more turnovers last three seasons. Last, I recommend an OVER bet if the first quarter ends up showing fewer than 10 points scored and will recommend an 8-unit bet if the quarter ends 0-0 or 3-0. There have been five Super Bowls in which the first quarter ended 0-0. The Over In-Game line is 5-0 and the pre flop Over is 4-1, which implies betting OVER 2nd quarter, and full-game OVER in-game line. This a rather comprehensive list of situational trends and angles that support the bet on the Eagles Teams that scored 30 or more points in their two previous playoff wins to get to the Super Bowl are 7-1 SUATS inn the Super Bowl The League MVP is just 6-15 SU and 5-15-1 ATS and 0-7 ATS last 20 Super Bowls | The last League-MVP to win a Super Bowl was Curt Warner and “The Best Show on Turf” LA Rams in 1999 | Since then, League-MVP’s are 0-9 SU and ATS | Works against Mahomes and the Chiefs Teams lined between 2.5-point-favorites and 2.5-point dogs that had the better defensive yards per point allowed for the season went on to a 5-0 SU and ATS record and 3-2 Over-Under – Favors Eagles Teams that scored in every quarter of their conference championship win have seen the Under go 13-7 (65%) in the Super Bowl| Chiefs and Eagles have scored in every quarter. Teams that scored in every quarter of their previous two playoff games has seen that team go just 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS, and 4-6 over-Under | Favors Eagles The team that averaged more points scored in the third quarter are 4-8 SU (33%), 3-9 ATS (25%) and 5-7 O-U |If the total is 50 or more, the higher scoring third quarter team is 2-5 SUATS and 1-6 O-U | Favors Eagles Team is the favorite and has won three of their last four games and facing an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games has produced a 37-14 ATS record since 2010; 33-12 SU and 30-13-2 ATS 70% since 2013; 66-34-3 ATS, 73-30 SU (71%) since 1989 From Week 12 on and includes the playoffs The team with the lower offensive yards-per-play average is 16-5 SU, 14-7 ATS, and 9-12 O-U | Eagles LIVE in-game Super Bowl Betting Dogs that scored first went on to a 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS record with a 5-5 Over-Under Dogs that scored a touchdown first went on to a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS record and 3-4 O-U Teams that had more rushing attempts in the SB have gone 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS and 9-12 O-U | Teams that had more rushing attempts and with the total at 50 or more points has gone 6-1 SUATS and 1-6 O-U 86% under bets. Teams that had more rushing attempts and passes are 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS (77%) and 5-8 O-U Teams that had fewer passes went onto a 14-7 SYATS record and 9-12 O-U 43% Teams that had fewer passes, but more rushes went on a 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS. 5-8 Over-Under Teams that had scored 17 or more points by half time and ended the game with the same or fewer turnovers went on to a 7-SUATS record and 7-1 O-U Favorites that exceeded their team totals went 10-10 SU, 6-14 ATS, and 9-11 O-U Dogs that exceeded their team total went 11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS (71%) and 9-12 (43%) |
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02-09-23 | UC-Santa Barbara +1 v. Long Beach State | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
UC-Santa Barbara vs Long beach State 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Santa Barbara using the money line or –1 point, whichever you prefer. UCSB is 7-1 ATS when facing a good defensive team allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or lower this season; 17-6-1 ATS in road games coming off three consecutive conference games spanning the past three seasons. LBST is just 20-27-1 ATS in home games following a game in which they allowed 85 or more points over the past 10 seasons. UCSB head coach Pasternack is 16-4 ATS when facing an offense scoring 77 or more PPG for his coaching career. |
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02-09-23 | Bucks -6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Milwaukee Bucks vs LA Lakers 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Bucks minus the points, currently priced at -6 Betting on road favorites of between 3.5 and 9.5 points in the month of February, has a win percentage between 60 and 75% and taking on a foe that that has won 40 to 50% of their games has earned a 41-10-1 ATS record for 80.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This betting algorithm has never had a losing season and that is pretty good – no, pretty damn good. |
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02-09-23 | New Orleans v. Nicholls State UNDER 150.5 | Top | 59-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
New Orleans vs Nicholls State Betting on the UNDER in games with a total between 143 and 153, the home team has been defeated by 48 or more points against the spread over their past 10 games and facing a foe that have seen their last 5 games play OVER by 28 or more points has produced an 83-46 record for 64.3% winners since 2012 and 39-21 UNDER for 65% winning bets. If our home team is a favorite of at least 6 points, the Under then has earned a highly profitable 24-10 record for 71% winning bets. |
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02-09-23 | Denver v. North Dakota UNDER 145 | Top | 63-86 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Denver vs North Dakota 4% 8-Unit bets bet Under the total, currently at 144 points Betting the Under with a dog that has seen their last five games play Under the total by at least 36 points and facing a foe that has seen their total play Over by at least 8 points I each of their last four games has earned an outstanding 25-9 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is lined between a 3.5-point favorite and a 3.5 dog, the record soars to 15-4 Under for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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02-06-23 | Clippers v. Nets UNDER 221 | Top | 124-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
LA Clippers vs Brooklyn Nets 4% 8-Unit bet Under the posted total currently priced at 221 points. The Nets are 15-5 Under in home games and coming off a home win in games played over the past two seasons. Kyrie Irving is now a Dallas Maverick and didn't play Saturday night, with the team citing calf soreness. With Irving off the roster and Kevin Durant missing a 12th straight game due to a sprained right medial collateral ligament, the Nets stormed back for a wild 125-123 victory over the Washington Wizards. The Nets pulled off the comeback with only eight players available as Ben Simmons (sore left knee) and T.J. Warren (left shin contusion) did not play and Seth Curry (left adductor) and Morris (sore left knee) were injured during the game as the Nets allowed 73 points by halftime. Cam Thomas scored a career-high 44 points on 16-of-23 shooting while playing 29 minutes. Nets are in a regression situation on the offensive end. Clippers have blown huge leads in each of their last two games and Kawhi Leonard made note of the need to play better defense in his press meeting. |
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02-06-23 | Lightning -113 v. Panthers | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers Betting on road favorites that have scored three or more goals I each of their past five games and facing a host that has scored three or more goals in each of their last two games has earned a 56-25 record for 69% winners, averaging a –140 bet and producing a highly profitable 27% ROI in each of the past 7 seasons. If the host has scored three or more goals in each of their past three games, the road team record improves to 28-11 for 72%, averaging a –135 bet and resulting in an outstanding 35% ROI over the past seven seasons. |
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02-06-23 | Lafayette v. Holy Cross OVER 125.5 | Top | 72-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Lafayette vs Holy Cross |
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02-05-23 | Fordham +4.5 v. Richmond | Top | 58-68 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 55 m | Show |
Fordham vs Richmond |
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02-02-23 | Hornets v. Bulls -6 | Top | 98-114 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Charlotte vs Chicago Portland Trail Blazers vs Washington Wizards |
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01-29-23 | Pelicans +9 v. Bucks | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
New Orleans Pelicans vs Milwauke Bucks Betting on a winning record road team that lost the previous meeting to the current opponent and is coming off a dreadful double-digit home loss has earned an outstanding 25-19 SU record and 32-12 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. Since 2015, this algorithm has been profitable in every season and has produced a 54-23-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. Here is another algorithm that has gone 32-5-1 ATS for 87% winners over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after being beaten by the number by 50 or more points spanning their previous seven games, and now facing a foe that has seen their last seven games play Over the total by a combined 50 points. The Pelicans have lost to the spread by 60.5 points over their last seven games while the Bucks have played over the total by a whopping 100 points spanning their last seven games. From the predictive playbook, the Pelicans are 23-9-1 ATS (72%) when scoring 111 or more points and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio than the opponent in road games played since 2018. |
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01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Ragles Betting on the OVER with a total between 42.5 and 49 points, coming off two or more consecutive Under games, and is a game involving two very good teams on both sides of the ball that are outscoring their foes by at least 8 PPG on the season has yielded a 27-14 Over record good for 65.9% winning bets since 1995. Now, if the game is taking place in the conference championship game or the Super Bowl, then the record has been 16-6 Over good for 73% winning bets since 1995. Home teams that had no turnovers and covered the spread in their divisional round win are 6-4 SU (60%) and 3-7 ATS (30%), and 7-3 Over-Under (70%). Home teams that played in the previous playoffs are 8-3 SU (73%), 7-4 ATS (64%), and 8-3 Over-Under (73%) in the Conference Championship. Teams that had converted between 55 and 65% of their red zone scoring opportunities on the season yielded 27-23 SU, 28-22 ATS (56%), and 33-15-2 (68%). Teams that posted a dominating defensive yards-per-point allowed of 30 or more in their Divisional Round win are 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS (63%), and 11-2 Over-Under 85%. LIVE In-Game betting notes for BOTH games Road teams that got out to a 7 to 13 points lead, 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 9-1 O-U – average final score 27-26 so betting in-game anywhere below 50 for these two games is quite attractive. |
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01-27-23 | Sharks +256 v. Hurricanes | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
San Jose vs Carolina 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Sharks using the money line, currently priced at +240 Betting on road teams in a game with a total of at least 6 goals has allowed three or more goals in each of their past three games, and facing a foe that has scored three or more goals in each of their last three games has yielded a 21-20 record, averaged a +155 wager, and produced a monster 27% ROI since 2017. The Dime Bettor has earned a profit of $14,250 over only 41 bets made. An alternative bet would be to place a 4-unit amount on the money line and then a 4-Unit amount on the puck line, currently +110. That way, if the Sharks lose by a single goal, you will make a small profit. You can even adjust it to 4.5 units on the puck line and 3.5 units on the money line. Remember, this is just one bet over the course of a marathon season and we know this methodology has done very well over the course of any of the last 20 seasons. I bet numbers, not mascots, or perceptions of how great, mediocre, and terrible a team may be at the present time. |
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01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles -8 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles minus the points Giants come into this game covering the spread in seven of their past eight games and this type of trend forces the betting markets to overvalue these teams. This is attributed to recencybias and we do have the Giants coming off a road win over what I believe was the most overrated 13-win team in the past 20 seasons in the Minnesota Vikings. Home teams that were in the playoffs last season and taking on an opponent that missed the playoffs in the previous season 26-6 SU | 20-12 ATS (63%) and In all rounds except SB, road teams that have covered the spread in 7 or more of their last 8 games are 3-10 SU | 3-9-1 ATS (25%). Eagles get their offensive line back to full strength with the return of all pro Lane Johnson and their ground attack is going to be ferocious tonight. The Eagles have been spectacular with Hurts under center identifyingwht the defense is doing pre snap. If the Giants show a cover 2 shell, the Eagles will run the ball between the tackles, if the Giants go to Cover 1 bracket, or Cover-1 Sam Will Blitz – Hurts will know with certainty that he has every WR in man coverage and can throw a deep ball for a vertical route or intermediate crossing pattern. Look for this to feature Eagles tight endGoedart isolated on one side and three WR on the other side of the ball. Don’t be surprised if the 3 WR are on the weak side of the LOS as this gives Davonte Smith an exceptional matchup against a linebacker or safety in man coverage. From the predictive model, the Eagles are 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%) in home games in which they gain 150 or more rushing yards and average at least 6.5 yards-per-play. So, look for the Eagles to exploit the ground attack and consider making a pizza money prop bet on Miles Sanders Over 66.5 rushing yards. Dallas Goedart Over 30 yards longest reception, AJ Brown Over 100 yards receiving +240, Devonta Smith Over 100 receiving yards +300, and Giants Richie James Over 4.5 +105 receptions – all at BetMGM |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Jacksonville vs Kansas City 4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Jaguars plus the points and sprinkle a bit more ‘pizza money’ on the money line. I am waiting to place this bet till we get within about 3 or 4 hours of game time given that everyone’s aunt, uncle, and pet have or will be betting on the Chiefs today. I know that in several Las Vegas sportsbooks, Circa is one, that has a large exposure with teasers involving the Chiefs and the books will move this line even higher to avoid further imbalances on their books. So, one optional way to bet this game is to bet 50% preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 50% more if the Chiefs score first and it is a TD – not an FG. If the Chiefs score an FG first and then a TD for a 10-0 lead, then add the 50% in-game. Home teams that scored the first TD of a divisional round matchup go on to a rather unimpressive 19-18 ATS over the past 20 seasons. Betting on dogs between 7.5 and 11.5 points in a conference matchup (not the Super Bowl) that are facing the top seed are 2-5 SU and 6-1 ATS and 6-1 Under the total. Andy Reid, who might be understandably wary of this weekend’s matchup vs. the Jags, coached by one-time protégé Doug Pederson, both a QB and an assistant to Reid in the past. |
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01-16-23 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 132-140 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
Houston Rockets vs LA lakers 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Rockets plus the points The Lakers coming off a physically and emotionally draining 1113-112 loss to the 76ers last night and now must turn around on back-to-back days to host the Rockets. Betting on road teams, who have lost their last 3 road games of the current road trip and playing on back-to-back nights (Rockets) has earned a highly profitable 51-18-2 ATS for % winning bets since 2016. If the host is coming off a home loss priced as an underdog, our road team improves to 16-5-1 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Here. is a second algorithm that has earned an outstanding 37-14 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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01-16-23 | Pelicans +7 v. Cavs | Top | 103-113 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
New Orleans Pelicans vs Cleveland Cavaliers 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Pelicans plus the points Betting on road dogs with same-season revenge from a previous loss of three or fewer points in the same season and with that foe coming off a loss priced as the favorite has earned a 40-17 ATS record for 70% winning bets since 2016. If the matchup involves two winning record teams, our road dog improves to a near-perfect 7-1 ATS for 88%. |
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01-16-23 | Raptors +3 v. Knicks | Top | 123-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Toronto Raptors vs NY Knicks 4% 8-unit bets bet on the Raptors plus the points Bet on road teams that are avenging a same-season loss against the current opponent, is coming off a horrid double-digit home loss has earned a 157-93-3 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2016. If the host is playing on back-to-back nights, the road team improves to a highly profitable 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2016. After having won three straight and ATS, the Raptors lost at home 114-103 to the Atlanta Hawks priced as a 7-point favorite. The Knicks are on a 3-game win streak and covered the spread in each of them. On Sunday, they defeated the lowly Detroit Pistons 117-104 and covered the spread as 8.5-point favorites. The Knicks are just 9-20-1 ATS in home games and coming off a win and 3-9 ATS in home games coming off two consecutive wins in games played over the past two seasons. |
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01-15-23 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 44.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 11 m | Show |
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills 1:00 ET, January 15, 2022 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the UNDER The Dolphins committed the fourth-most penalties this season with 111 and Buffalo was not far behind with 92 hankies thrown at them and accepted by their foes. In the Wild Card round the Under is 32-13-1 for 71% when one of the teams has committed 110 or more penalties on the season. If both teams competing in the wild-card round committed 90 or more penalties, the UNDER has produced a 70-38-2 record for 65% winners over 20 seasons. Only one team has scored fewer points over a four-game span in the playoffs in postseason history, than the 24 points scored by the Dolphins. That team is the Giants from 1939 to 1944, who scored 16 points. As injury-plagued are the Dolphins team, I do not see them scoring over their team total. With a total of 40.5 points and a line of 14 points, projects that the Bills will win the game 27-13. I certainly do not see them scoring 17 or more points. From the predictive model, the Bills are 9-1 UNDER in games played over the past 10 seasons when allowing 14 or fewer points at home against a divisional foe. First-year head coaches when on the road in the Wild Card round are 4-7 SU, 7-4 ATS, and 8-3 Under (73%) over the past 10 playoff seasons. |
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01-14-23 | Chargers v. Jaguars UNDER 47 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Chargers vs Jacksonville 5% 10-UNIT MAX Bet UNDER the posted total The Chargers are 9-4 when facing the Jaguars, but they did lose at home in Inglewood 30-10 to the Jaguars in Week 3. The Chargers are 10-3 ATS when facing the Jaguars, but let’s keep in mind many editions of the Jaguars were poor teams. New head coach Doug Pederson has his team and most of all his quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, playing at higher and higher levels. With the brain-dead decision to play his starters, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley, Williams is OUT for this game and it has been a long time since Keenan Allen and Williams have been on the same field together and 100% at full strength. There is a large degree of regression expected in this game. Both Herbert and Lawrence have been executing at a high level. Over his last three games Herbert is averaging 26 completions and completing 70 of 96 pass attempts for 73%. Lawrence is averaging 20 completions over his last three starts and completing 57-of-84 pass attempts for 68%. The Under is 12-1 in the Wild Card round with two quarterbacks completing 67% or more of their pass attempts over their last three games. If one of the quarterbacks (Herbert) comes into the WC game hitting 70% or more of their passes, the Under is 18-3 for 86% winning bets and if OVER 75% the Under is a perfect 5-0. Jaguars are 8-0 Under when facing a solid pass attack averaging 235 or more yards pe rgae in games played in the second half of each of the past three seasons. Fromm the predictive model, we are looking for the Jaguars defense to stop the Chargers ground attack allowing less than 4 YPR and that the Jaguars will not pass for more than 250 net passing yards. In past games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these performance measures has seen the Under produce a highly profitable 19-4-1 record (83%) Similarly, the Chargers have seen the Under produce an exceptional 22-9 Under record for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. Teams in the Wild card round where on of the teams gained fewer than 4 rushing yards per carry and the other foe was limited to 250 or fewer net passing yards saw the Under go 11-2 for 85% |
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01-12-23 | Flames -160 v. Blues | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
Calgary vs St. Louis Blues 3% 6-Unit bet on the Flames Betting on road favorites between –145 and –195 on the money line after the first 21 games (25% of the season), with a total of 6 or fewer goals and with the favorite having won just one of their past three games has earned a 185-83 record averaging a –162 wager and producing a solid average 17% ROI over the past 10 seasons. |
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01-12-23 | Celtics v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 1 m | Show |
Boston vs Brooklyn 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Nets plus the 2-points Consider betting 60% of your normal bet size pre-flop and then add 40% in-game at Nets +6.5 full game during the first half of action only. Durant will be out for at least two weeks with a sprained right knee after an MRI exam on Monday revealed an isolated sprain in his medial collateral ligament. Durant was injured in the third quarter when he collided with Miami's Jimmy Butler before the Nets concluded a three-game road trip with a 102-101 victory on Sunday. "No excuses," Brooklyn coach Jacque Vaughn said at practice Wednesday. "That's the biggest thing for this group. To (be in) the position last year where we were, I just say no excuses. Boston has had 4.2 percent of its shot attempts blocked this season while Brooklyn's rate is at 4.5, the two lowest percentages in the league. On the other end, both teams rank among the NBA's best in blocks per game -- the Nets are in first (6.98) and the Celtics fourth (5.40). Betting on home teams in a divisional matchup with both teams winning between 60 and 75% of their games and with the guest playing on back-to-back nights has gone 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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01-05-23 | Grizzlies -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 123-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Memphis vs Orlando 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points Betting on road favorites coming off a blowout win of 20 or more points and facing an opponent that they and their respective opponents have scored 100 or more points in each of their last three games has earned an 85-27 SU (76%) record and 71-39-2 ATS (65%) winning bets since 2015. If the foe is playing on B2B nights, our road favorite has gone 13-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. If the host has a win percentage of less than 40% on the season and is playing on no more than a day of rest, our favorites have gone 35-15 ATS for 70% winning bets. The Memphis Grizzlies seek their fifth consecutive win and second in as many nights, playing the second leg of a road back-to-back on Thursday when they visit the Orlando Magic. Memphis won its fourth straight contest on Wednesday, 131-107 over the Charlotte Hornets, behind a balanced scoring attack. Nine Grizzlies finished with at least eight points, paced by Ja Morant's 23 points. No Memphis player was in the game for more than 28 minutes and 10 players played for at least 14 minutes. So, playing on back-to-back nights is not going to be a factor tonight. |
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01-02-23 | Mississippi State v. Illinois OVER 45.5 | Top | 19-10 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 40 m | Show |
Mississippi State vs Illinois 4% best bet on the OVER There will undoubtedly be an immeasurable amount of emotion in the matchup given the sudden passing of legendary Miss State head coach Mike Leach and will be shared by the team oppositive them in Illinois. There are some opt-outs and notable two key defensive players in the secondary for Illinois. Granted, their replacements are extremely good defenders and athletes, but do think the Air Raid will be on full display and Illinois can put up points against a suspect State defense that allows 26 PPG. Betting the Over in a bowl game in which both teams have the same number of wins and at least 8 wins each and one of the teams is allowing an average of 20 or fewer PPG on the season (Illinois) has earned a 35-25-1 record for 58% winning bets and is 9-4 OVER for 69% over the past five seasons. |
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01-01-23 | Rams v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
LA Rams vs LA Chargers 4% 8-Unit Bets Bet on the Chargers minus the points Home teams that are facing an opponent coming off an upset home win in a none-divisional matchup have gone an impressive 9-1 SUATS. From the predictive models, the Chargers are 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS when scoring 24 or more points and forcing two or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS (81%) when scoring 24 or more points and forcing 2 or kore turnovers and having two or fewer turnovers in games played since 2015. |
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01-01-23 | Panthers v. Bucs -3.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
Carolina vs Tampa Bay 5% 10-Unit best bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points and consider the money line if the line would drop below 3-points After a 21-3 win in Week 7, the Panthers are going for the season sweep of the Buccaneers for the first time since 2017. That was also the last season the Panthers made the playoffs. However, this is a team led by Tom Brady, who rarely has ever been swept by a divisional foe. Moreover, enough is enough, with this underperforming Bucs offense and I do expect them to put up much bigger offensive numbers than their season-to-date averages. Road teams in a conference matchup that are coming off an upset by 14 or more points re just 7-28 SU (20%) and 12-22-1 ATS (35%) over the past five seasons. Road teams coming off an upset win in which they gained 275 or more rushing yards are just 3-7 SUATS. Road teams coming off an upset home win in games played in January are just 7-28 SU and 13-21-1 (38%). Moreover, teams that lost the previous matchup to the current opponent have a win percentage between 40 and 49% on the season facing a losing record foe, and with our team having lost five or six of their last seven games has gone 10-3 SUATS for 77% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. From the predictive playbook, the Bucs are 26-3 SU and 20-9 ATS for 69% winners when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past three seasons. |
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01-01-23 | Jaguars -3 v. Texans | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
Jacksonville vs Houston 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jaguars minus the points Houston has beaten Jacksonville in nine-straight games going back to 2018, including a 13-6 victory in October this year. That is the Texans' longest winning streak against a single opponent in franchise history.The under for what it is worth has gone 12-4 for 75% in this situation in which the team has lost 7 exact games to the current opponent. If the total is 43 or fewer points, the Under is 8-3 for 73% winning bets. The Jags allowed three points in their previous game against the Jets in their 19-3 win and covered as 2.5-point road underdogs. They also allowed fewer than 3 points in week 2 in a 24-0 win over the Colts as 3-point home dogs. This is only the second time since 2006, that the Jaguars' defense allowed three or fewer points twice in the same season. Texans are 8-15 ATS following an upset road win. They did upset Tenn 19-14 as a 3-point road dog. Texans head coach Lovie Smith is 2-10 ATS for his career coming off an upset win regardless of location. From the predictive model, JAX is expected to gain at least 130 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met or exceeded these measures they have gone to a 15-5 SU mark for 75% and a 16-4 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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01-01-23 | Saints v. Eagles -5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
New Orleans vs Philadelphia 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Eagles minus the points Teams from week 12 on to the end of the regular season that are coming off just their second loss of the season and have two losses total for the season bounce back with a 43-12 SU record and 33-22 ATS mark for 60% winners since 1990. Digging further home favorites of 7.5 or fewer points, coming off their second loss of the season, from week 9 on out, and facing a losing record foe is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1990. Teams that have won 7 or more games than the foe and are coming off a loss and now playing at home are 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS (68%) since 1990 and a perfect 7-0 SUATS last 10 seasons. The eagles are 9-3 ATS in home games and have lost 3 of their last three games to the spread. From the predictive mode, the Eagles are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS when scoring 27 or more points and out-rushing their foes by at least 50 yards in games played since 2018. |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State +6 v. Georgia | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA 5% 10-UNIT MAX Bet on the Ohio State Buckeye plus the points All the Buckeyes wanted was another opportunity to redeem themselves, just as Georgia did a year ago. The Bulldogs lost 41-24 to Alabama in the 2021 SEC title game but as the No. 3 seed in the CFP downed No. 2 Michigan 34-11 before defeating No. 1 Alabama 33-18 for the national championship. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud led the nation in passer efficiency rating. He threw for 3,340 yards, 37 touchdowns, and six interceptions but will be without receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back TreVeyon Henderson due to injuries. Even so, Marvin Harrison Jr. had 72 receptions for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns, and the Buckeyes have plenty of big-play ability. Ohio State is extraordinarily deep in talent on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense. Ohio State is 14-3 ATS (82.4%) when not playing at home and coming off a home loss since 1990. The Ohio State Buckeyes have lost their last five games against the spread when facing ranked foes and as a DOG, though, and facing a ranked foe they are
Buckeye head coach Day is 6-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses to the spread and Bulldog HC Smart is 8-20 ATS following a game that his team covered the spread and was priced as double-digit favorites. From the predictive model, we are expecting Ohio State to score 31 or more points and gain at least 6.5 yards per play OR gain at least 9 yards per pass attempt. In past games in which Ohio State met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 71-2 SU record and 56-16-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and 20-0 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets. Exercise discipline first and foremost and bet on Ohio State. |
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12-28-22 | Kansas v. Arkansas -2 | Top | 53-55 | Push | 0 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Kansas vs Arkansas 4% 8-Unit best bet on Arkansas and if this line moves to pick-em or less than a 2-point favorite consider the money line. From the predictive model, Arkansas is expected to score at least 28 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which Arkansas met or exceeded these measures has led to a 9-0 SU record and an 8-1 ATS mark over the past five seasons. |
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12-27-22 | Georgia Southern v. Buffalo +5.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 1 h 51 m | Show |
Georgia Southern vs Buffalo 4% 8-Unit best bet plus the points and sprinkle the money line with a .5 added bet Betting on underdogs of six or fewer points playing on a neutral field after the week 4 that are coming off two consecutive losses to the spread and the most recent ATS was a game in which they were lined as double-digit favorites has earned an 11-9 record on the money line and a 14-6 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If a bowl game these dogs have gone 7-7 SU, 10-4 ATS for 71.4% winning bets. Georgia Southern is getting the large majority of the bets being made and presents a contrarian opportunity for us in this bowl game. Dogs of 3.5 to 0.5 points playing in bowl games getting less than 40% of the tickets bet on them have gone 109-687 ATS for 62% winning bets and a solid 22% ROI. I am going with Bowling Green in this one. |
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12-25-22 | Packers v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Packers vs Dolphins 5% 10-UNIT MAX bet on the Dolphins Despite winning four of their last five meetings, the Packers are 5-10 all-time against the Dolphins. It is Green Bay's worst record against any active franchise. Moreover, Rogers has gone 18 consecutive starts without throwing for 300 or more yards and only Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke have more cumulative starts. So, Rogers is not playing at the levels of previous seasons when they were playoff contenders. The Dolphins are allowing 15.3 points per game at home this season, 16.2 points per game less than on the road where they have allowed 31.5 PPG. That is the largest difference in the NFL and the third largest by any team in the last 40 seasons. The 2018 Chiefs, 16.6, and 2009 Seahawks, 16.2. Dolphins are at home and this is good news for their quarterback Tua, now 0-4 in starts when the weather is below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 71.4. In starts with a temperature of 50 degrees or higher, Tagovailoa boasts a 17-7 (.708) record with a passer rating of 98.1 over those 24 games. Betting on favorites that are taking on a foe that has gone Over the total by 35 points in total over their previous five games has earned a 52-37 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the padst five seasons. If our favorite has won more games than their opponent, they go on to a 38-20 ATS record for 65.5% winning bets last five seasons. If a no-divisional matchup is added our favorites have produced an 18-7 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets. |
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12-24-22 | Eagles +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Dallas 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles plus the points Betting on road dogs in a divisional fray that have outscored their opponents by an average of 15 or more PPG spanning their last three games have gone to earn a 27-16 ATS record good for 63% winning bets. Prescott has the most interceptions in the NFL (10) since returning from a broken thumb in Week 7 after missing five games. I also like the fact that Eagles TE Dallas Goedert is returning to the lineup from a shoulder injury. When he has injured I stated that he may be the most important player on the offense because of all the great things he does for the offense that do not get recorded in the box scores. His run blocking is the best in the NFL for TEs and I do expect Miles Sanders to get an above average amount of carries in this matchup. These run plays will attempt to get Goedert matched up against DE Micah Parsons, along with either the right or left tackle in a double team. Goedert will release his contact with Parsons quickly looking to get to the second level and open up gaping holes for Sanders to scoot through. Betting on underdogs including pick-em that are elite offenses averaging 6.0 or more YPPL and are coming off a game in which they outgained their previous opponent by at least 150 yards have earned a 38-14-1 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Dogs in a divisional game, averaging 5.75 or more YPPL, won the previous matchup in the same season, are 7-3 ATS for 70% winners. |
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12-24-22 | Bills -8 v. Bears | 35-13 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Buffalo Bills minus the points Bills are 8-3 ATS when taking on a losing record team in games played over the past three seasons. Bills are 6-0 ATS coming off a win of 6 or fewer points and with the game taking place in the second half of the season in game splayed over the past three seasons. Bills head coach Sean McDermott is 10-1 ATS following a win by three or fewer points. From the predictive model, the Bills are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS for 93% winning bets over the past five seasons when scoring 28 or more points and outgaining their foe by at least 100 total yards. Bet the Bills and forget the weather for once. |
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12-24-22 | Giants v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Minnesota Vikings 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Vikings minus the points Betting on any team playing on a Saturday that is coming off an upset win over a divisional rival has produced an unprofitable 11-24-2 ATS record for 31% winning bets and targets the Giants to fade in this matchup. If the total is between 42.5 and 49.5 points these teams have gone just 5-12 ATS for 29%. Giants are 0-6 ATS when facing excellent passing teams completing 64% or more of their past attempts in the second half of each of the past three seasons. Minnesota is 30-13-1 ATS following a game in which they scored no more than three points in the first half over the past 30 seasons. Teams, like the Vikings, who scored 7 or fewer points in the first half, but then scored 34 or more points in total in their previous game go on to an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record over the past five seasons. |
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12-24-22 | Falcons +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
Atlanta vs Baltimore 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons plus the points The weather forecast is for the game time temperature to be 15 degrees amid partly cloudy skies and very cold temperatures are expected for Saturday afternoon's game at M&T Bank Stadium. Moderate winds with strong gusts blowing diagonally across the field will make passing and kicking difficult. Betting on teams that have gone five consecutive games in which they forced no more than a single turnover in each of those games and now facing a foe coming off a game in which they had a turnover margin of -2 or worse has earned a highly profitable 68-39 ATS record for 64% winners. If this team is in a non-conference game and coming off a divisional game, they have gone 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets. |
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12-24-22 | Bengals -3 v. Patriots | Top | 22-18 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
Cincinnati vs New England 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Bengals minus the points Betting road favorites that are averaging at least 250 passing yards per game and coming off a horrid game in which they gained an average of only 5 or fewer passing yards per attempt are 19-4 ATS good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs from week 10 on out, the system has gone 15-2 ATS for 88% winning bets. |
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12-23-22 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks -105 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Chicago vs Columbus 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Blackhawks using the money line Betting on favorites between -110 and -140 that has lost four of their last five matches, has won no more than 30% of their games on the season, and facing a foe that has lost five or more of their last seven games has gone 17-7 averaging a -127 favorite and producing a highly profitable 33% ROI over the past 15 seasons. |
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12-23-22 | Pelicans +3 v. Thunder | Top | 128-125 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
New Orleans vs OKC 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Pelicans Betting on a team (Pelicans) in a game lined between the 3’s facing an opponent that is coming off a home win of three or fewer points, has won between 40 and 49% of their games on the season, and has one or more fewer days of rest between games has gone 22-11-3 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. C.J. McCollum struggled in his return from COVID-19 in early December, but has found his stride recently. In his past five games, McCollum is averaging 31.5 points, 7.5 assists and six rebounds while shooting 49.5 percent from the field. Last night he scored a season-high 40 points on 14-of-27 shooting, contributing seven 3-pointers, nine assists and eight rebounds. McCollum scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to help the Pelicans snap a four-game losing streak. So, I am looking for this hot streak to continue tonight against the Thunder and even more so that Zion Williamson has entered the COVID-19 protocol. Pelicans are 22-10-1 ATS for 69% winning bets when facing a losing record team that is allowing 46 or higher shooting in games played over the past two seasons. |
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12-23-22 | Bucks v. Nets -2 | Top | 100-118 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Milwaukee vs Brooklyn 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Nets minus the points or the money line if not priced more than -165. If you use the money line consider reducing the units to 5 or 5.5 units given that you are then risking about an 8-unit amount. Betting on home favorites that are revenging a double-digit loss to the current opponent and is coming off a home blowout win of 20 or more points has gone 23-2 SU for 92% winning bets on the money line. If a home favorite of not more than 3.5 points has produced an 8-2 SU record and 7-3 ATS mark for 70% winners. |
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12-23-22 | Raptors v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Toronto vs Cleveland 4% 8-Unit best bet on Cleveland minus the points Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing a foe that they have lost the last two meetings against, and with that opponent coming off an upset win over a divisional rival has produced an 85-20 SU record and 62-37-6 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 27 seasons. If a home favorite in this situation produced a 61-14 SU mark and 47-25-3 ATS for 65.3% winning bets; 13-5 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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12-22-22 | Air Force +3.5 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
Air Force vs Baylor 4% 8-Unit best bet on Air Force plus the points Betting on Armed Forces teams, Air Force, Army, and Nay, priced as underdogs of seven or fewer points OR favored and facing a foe that is averaging at least 24 or more PPG on the season in any bowl game has earned a 19-8 SU record and 20-7 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 bowl seasons and 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This will be the first time since 1977 that these two football programs will compete on the gridiron. Air Force senior Brad Roberts led the Mountain West Conference in rush attempts (308) and rushing yards (1621) this season. Roberts is the program’s all-time leader in career rush attempts (671) and ranks third in career yards (3429) trailing only Dee Dowis (3612) and Asher Clark (3594). Five of Baylor's six losses this season came against AP-Top 25 ranked opponents. It is Baylor’s most losses to ranked teams in a single season since 2008 (6 losses). Air Force has a lot to play for after underperforming preseason expectations as the favorite to win the MWC starting with the fact that they have a shot at a 10-win season, which is an impressive accomplishment at a service academy. And it would be a nice footnote to the fact they've already claimed the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy after beating Army and Navy. Air Force is 19-10 SU and 19-9-1 ATS (68%) following a game in which they allowed 250 or fewer yard sand 14 or fewer points and 7-0 ATS if priced as a dog and 4-0 ATS if involving a bowl game venue. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has been at the head of the program since the start of the 2007 season and has played in 11 bowl games. When the total has been between 42.5 and 49 points, his Falcons are 24-10 SU and 25-9 ATS for 74% winning bets and 9-3 ATS when priced as a dog. |
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12-21-22 | Hornets +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 105-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Hornets vs Clippers 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Hornets plus the points Betting on road dogs from game number 15 on to the end of the regular season that are coming off a road win and has won 25 to 40% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team has earned an 88-42-5 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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12-21-22 | South Alabama v. Western Kentucky +3.5 | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky vs South Alabama 3.5% 7-Unit best bet on Western Kentucky plus the points and if your money line price is at +150 or higher then add a 1-Unit amount. That is WHY this is graded as a 7-unit bet on the spread. If you want to be all 8-units getting the points that is a perfectly sound strategy too. Betting on teams playing in the post season bowl slate, is receiving less than 40% of the tickets bet and is a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points has earned a 110-68-1 ATS record good for 62% winning bets. A variation of this algorithm has earned a 62-30-2 ATS record for 68% winning bets and instructs to be on dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points with a closing total of 70 or fewer points, receiving 33% or fewer of the tickets bet in the bowl game. South Alabama is one of six current FBS teams that has never won a bowl game with the other non-winners Charlotte, Texas State, ULM, UMass and UTSA. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, has scored 45+ points in a bowl game four times since 2014, most in the FBS over that span. WKU leads the FBS with 63 offensive plays of 25+ yards this season. The Hilltoppers have gained at least 350 yards on offense in 27 consecutive games marking the third-longest active streak in the FBS behind only UCLA with 33 and UTSA with 29. |
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12-21-22 | Mavs -3 v. Wolves | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
Mavericks vs Timberwolves 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Mavericks minus the points Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points and facing a foe that they lost to in the most recent meeting and that foe scored at least 100 points and that host is coming off a home win in which they scored 115 or more points has earned a 44-19-3 ATS record good for 70% winning bets. Bet the Mavericks |
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12-21-22 | Blazers -3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 98-101 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
Trail Blazers vs Thunder 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Trailblazers minus the points. The same betting system that is active for the bet on the Mavericks is also active for this bet on the Portland Trail Blazers. |
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12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Green Bay Packers 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams plus the seven points and sprinkle a little bit more on the money line. When the league's slate of prime-time games came out in the spring, a mid-December matchup between the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams and the three-time defending NFC North champion Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field sounded like TV ratings gold. No one though this would end up being a meaningless matchup, BUT it is the defending Super Bowl Champion Rams that have been playing with a sense of pride and ambition going with the starters the have available. he Rams have just 13 points on their 14 total takeaways this season, half as many points as any other team (Denver ranks 31st with 26 takeaway points). The Packers have allowed 35 giveaway points on their 17 turnovers this season, tied for fifth fewest in the league. So, if the4re was ever a game in which the Rams will take full advantage of Packers Aaron Rogers turnovers, it will be tonight. Head coach McVay is 17-7-1 ATS in game splayed in December. There have been two times in the Super Bowl era where a quarterback came off the bench, threw for 200+ yards, rallied from 13+ points down to win and snapped his team's winless streak of six or more games. One was Baker Mayfield's Browns debut in 2018, and the other was his Rams debut last week and that is impressive to say the least. He and the Rams have everything to prove on the field tonight, especially Mayfield. From the predictive model the Rams are 26-11-4 ATS for 70% winning bets when gaining 5.0 or more yards per play and have the same or fewer turnovers than their foes in games played over the last five seasons and 7-3 ATS when priced as the uderdog. |
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12-19-22 | Connecticut +12.5 v. Marshall | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Marshall vs UCONN 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UCONN plus the points UConn (6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS, 4-7-1 O=U)) is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015 under first-year coach Jim Mora Jr. Before losing their regular season finale to Army, the Huskies had a stretch of five wins in six games and covered the spread in all six, capped off by an upset victory over then-ranked No. 19 Liberty. Games playing on a neutral field that has a worse win percentage then the foe and are priced between a 10- and 14.5-point underdog are 19-11 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after Week 12 these double-digit dogs have earned a 14-7 ATS for 67% winning bets. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Seattle 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points 4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total Let’s get right to the meat and potatoes. This betting system has earned an outstanding 35-13-3 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The game is lined between the 3’s, one of the teams, Seattle, has lost three consecutive games to the spread, facing a foe that has won two or more consecutive games against the spread. If it is a divisional matchup, then it soars to a remarkable and highly profitable 18-1-3 ATS for 95% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons and has not lost ATS since the start of the 2015 season going 15-0-2 ATS for 100% winners. The total is backed by a situational angle producing 67% winning bets on a 22-11-1 record over the past 30 seasons. Betting the Over when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with one of the teams, 49ers, covered the spread in three consecutive games and has won between 60 and 75% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 43 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Seattle 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points 4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total Let’s get right to the meat and potatoes. This betting system has earned an outstanding 35-13-3 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The game is lined between the 3’s, one of the teams, Seattle, has lost three consecutive games to the spread, facing a foe that has won two or more consecutive games against the spread. If it is a divisional matchup, then it soars to a remarkable and highly profitable 18-1-3 ATS for 95% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons and has not lost ATS since the start of the 2015 season going 15-0-2 ATS for 100% winners. The total is backed by a situational angle producing 67% winning bets on a 22-11-1 record over the past 30 seasons. Betting the Over when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with one of the teams, 49ers, covered the spread in three consecutive games and has won between 60 and 75% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team. |
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12-15-22 | Heat -4 v. Rockets | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Heat minus the points Despite being the youngest team in the Association, the Rockets are coming off two tenacious defensive efforts holding the Bucks to just 36% shooting and the Suns to 32% shooting, which was the worst the Suns have shot since October 18, 2017. The Heat are playing without their leading scorer Jimmy Butler, but Tyler Herro matched a career high with 35 points including nine made 3-pointers. The Heat got off to a horrid start, but not find themselves just one-game under .500 and are playing great team basketball right now. Despite Herros 35-point effort, the Heat had six players score in double figures. This is the third game of a four-game road trip for the Heat, who are also playing on back-to-back nights. They won back-t-back road games for the first time this season and with the very weak San Antonio Spurs on deck, they know they can win all four games. Betting on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points and facing as team that had 13 more turnovers than their opponent in their previous game has earned a 76-27-2 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and 18-7 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team is playing on back-to-back nights, the record soars to a highly profitable 14-3 ATS record good for 82% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and is 7-1 ATS 88% since 2015. |
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12-11-22 | Dolphins v. Chargers +3 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Dolphins vs Chargers 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Chargers plus the points Betting on underdogs that forcing an average of fewer than one turnover per game on the season and coming off a horrid game in which they committed three or more turnovers has earned a 46-18-3 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is playing at home as a dog against a conference foe our record improves to 13-4-2 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2013. Teams, like the Dolphins, that had a five gamer win streak halted with a double-digit road loss are just 13-24-4 ATS for 35% winning bets so fading these teams has won 65% ATS of bets placed. In these games if the total has been 50+ points, the Dolphins fit into an imperfect 0-5 ATS situation. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Bucs vs 49ers 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Bucs plus the points Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing an opponent that is coming off a two ATS wins priced as the favorite in each game, and with the dog coming off a home win has earned a 39-21-2 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets since 2010. Brady is 45-14 SU and 43-11-5 ATS when taking on a foe with the better record. Bucs are also 7-2-2 ATS coming off a game priced as the favorite and now installed as a dog spanning the past five seasons. If the Bus were favored, but failed to cover the spread in their previous game and now priced as the fog, they have gone 5-1 SUATS. Take the Bucs and sprinkle the money line a bit more. |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions -2 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Detroit 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Detroit Lions minus the points. Betting on favorites that have won three of their last four games and facing a foe that has won eight or more of their last 10 games has earned a 34-14-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets since 2010. If the total is less than 55 points, the favorite has gone 32-12-1 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010. The last four games between the Lions and Vikings have all been decided by four or fewer points, which is tied for the longest such streak in series history matching four straight from 1963-65. It's also the longest active streak between any two divisional opponents in the NFL right now. In this situation, the home teams that also has fewer wins than the foe has earned a 14-5-1 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets since 2010. |
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12-11-22 | Eagles v. Giants +7 | Top | 48-22 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants 4% best bet on the Giants plus the points and sprinkle the money line Bet on hoe dogs facing an elite opponent that has averaging 5.75 or more yards-per-play and the favorite has gained 450 or more total yards in each of their past two games has earned a 32-11 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 1990 and if our dog is priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point underdog, they have gone 10-1-1 ATS for 91% winning bets since 1990. In last week’s game against Washington, Daniel Jones became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to complete 80.0 percent of his passes on 30 or more attempts while also rushing for 70 or more yards in a game. Teams that have won their first five road games of the regular season, priced as a road favorite in the current game and average fewer than 1 turnover per game are just 6-13-1 ATS. |
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12-11-22 | Jets +10 v. Bills | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jets plus the generous amount of points and just in case a sprinkle on the money line is warranted. Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 10.5 points facing a foe that forced no more than a single turnover has earned these dogs a 145-85 ATS record good fort 64% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points that forced no more than a single turnover in their previous game and are playing with same season revenge against a divisional foe are just 10-21-1 ATS for 32% winning bets – so facing these favorite has earned a 68% win rate. |
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12-10-22 | Navy v. Army UNDER 32.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 59 m | Show |
Army vs Navy 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Under the posted total If it isn’t broke do not try to fix it. I like betting 50% preflop Under the total and then look for a decent start by both teams and look to add the second 50% at 37.5 or more points. It is difficult, mentally to bet an Under priced at 32.5 points, but the numbers once again support this bet and it is just one bet over the course of a marathon season. Bet the Under when the total is 50 or fewer points and a matchup of two teams averaging 225 or more rushing yards per game has earned a 50-25-2 record good for 67% winning Under bets since 2006 and 37-14-2 Under good for 73% winning bets since 2015. |
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12-08-22 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Denver Nuggets Betting on road favorites, playing with same season revenge and coming off a home loss, and not playing on back-to-back nights has earned a 52-19 SU record good for 73% winners and 49-22 ATS good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team is not playing on B2B nights and the host has MORE rest, our team has gone 56-24 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2015. This system is11-3 ATS good for 79% winning bets over the past two seasons. Portland is 16-28-1 ATS in hoe games and when facing a solid shooting team making 46% or more of their shot attempts on the season spanning the last two seasons. |
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12-08-22 | Jets v. Blues +107 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Winnipeg vs St. Louis 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on St, Louis using the money line Betting on home teams using the money line that have played three consecutive games in which 8 or more goals were scored in each game and taking on a foe that has allowed two or fewer goals in two consecutive games has earned a 23-9 record for 72% winning bets averaging a -111 money line bet and producing a 42% ROI since 2006 and 11-2 record for 85% winners last five seasons averaging a -111 money line wager and producing a terrific 65% ROI. Bet on St. Louis |
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12-07-22 | Canucks v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Vancouver vs San Jose 4% 8-Unit Best Bet UNDER Betting Under when the total is 6 or more goals with a home team coming off a road game where both teams scored three or more goals, is a struggling team winning 30% or less of their games and with the game taking place in the first half of the season. From the predictive models the Under is 34-12 in road games when they have scored two or fewer goals. |
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12-07-22 | Celtics -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Boston Celtics vs Phoenix Suns 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Boston Celtics Let’s get right into the meat and potatoes. Betting on teams lined between a 3.5 point favorite and a 3.5-point underdog and facing an opponent that is outscoring their opponents by 6 or more PPG on the season and coming off three consecutive games that saw at least 220 points scored in each one has earned an outstanding and highly profitable 47-19 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team has one day of rest, they have earned a 43-15 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets last 5 seasons. If our team has had the same number or more days of rest than the opponent, the record has improved to 42-17 ATS for 71% over the past 5 seasons. Chris Paul may be playing for the Suns tonight after having missed the previous 14 games since injuring his heel in a game at Philadelphia November 7. The Celtics have won and covered seven of its last eight games. Boston’s latest victory was Monday's 116-110 win at Toronto and covered the spread as 1.5 point underdogs. The Celtics were without center Al Horford (back) and guard Malcolm Brogdon (illness) for that game but received 31 points and 12 rebounds from Jayson Tatum and 22 points and eight rebounds from Jaylen Brown. It was Tatum's team-high 12th double-double of the season, and the 15th consecutive game Brown has scored at least 20 points. Celtics are 14-4 ATS in road games after having won at least six of their previous games over the past two seasons. Celtics are 21-11 ATS for 66% winners in road games where they have been priced between a -3 favorite and +3 underdog over the past two seasons. |
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12-07-22 | Eastern Kentucky +28.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 49-84 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
Eastern Kentucky vs Tennessee 4% 8-Unit bets bet on Eastern Kentucky plus the points Eastern Kentucky is 22 - 9 against the spread when facing teams averaging 40 or more rebounds per game. Eastern Kentucky is 35 - 16 ATS in road games when facing solid defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game. |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots +3.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Buffalo vs New England 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots plus the points and a bit more sprinkle on the moneyline. Mac Jones threw touchdowns of 37 and 34 yards in the Thanksgiving loss. Jones entered the game with three career TD passes of at least 30 yards with one of those coming in 2022 prior to playing the Vikings. This is a certain sign that the Patriots are opening up the playbook and looking to stretch the defense vertically using a variety of 20+ yard routes. This is in turn will open up the ground game between the tackles and also using the traditional old-school trap block running plays. If Buffalo moves to a cover-1 shell, then no doubt in my mind you will see Jones use play action to freeze the linebackers and the look for crossing routes over the middle of field for high percentage catch and carry receptions. The injury bug has migrated around the Bills' defense this season. The latest to be affected is top pass rusher Von Miller after he was ruled out with a knee injury. Miller leads the team with eight sacks and has been the veteran leader on the defensive unit. His absence creates an enormous hole for a unit that has allowed just 18.1 points per game this season, the fifth fewest allowed in the NFL. Betting on underdogs that are taking on a favorite that is outgaining their opponents by .75 or more YPPL and have averaged 400 or more total yards over their last three games has produced a remarkable 51-15-2 ATS mark good for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the favorite won the previous meeting, which the Bills did, the system improves to 34-9 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. From the predictive model of mine, the Patriots are expected to score 24 or more points and average at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt. In past HOME games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to an outstanding 85-4 SU record and 69-20 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets since 1998 and since Tom Brady left Foxborough, they are an even better 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS (88%). |
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11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts OVER 39.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Colts 4% 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the total Betting the Over when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with one of the teams, Pittsburgh in this case coming off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a divisional rival, from week 5 on out has earned a 46-25 Over good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Tomlin is 13-4 Over off a close loss to a divisional foe of not more than 7 points. |
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11-27-22 | Bears v. Jets -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs New York Jets 5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Jets minus the points I waited to release this opportunity given the weather. It is a near certainty that it will start raining at the beginning of this game and will continue to rain throughout the entire game, which I believe favors the Jets even more than if the sun was shining brightly and not a could in the sky. The Bears defense has been horrific allowing 35 PPG over their last four games and the move to Mike White under center is a monster upgrade to Zach Wilson’s recent performances and whining about it to the media. Against the Bears defense in the rain, Mike White will not have to win the game on his arm and they can elect to run the ball first and foremost. Running plays also include the easy to complete passes in the flat and the keep the chains moving. Do not be surprised, though, if play action opens up the opportunity to throw the over-the-top vertical pass routes. White has a great arm – even in the rain – and once the Bears succumb from a Cover-2 shell and bring those safeties up to the line of scrimmage to defend the run, White will have any of receivers in man coverage and a high percentage completion percentage opportunity. Betting on favorites that are facing a team that has gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last five games and has won not more than 40% of their games on the season has earned a 36-15-3 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bears are 1-6 ATS last 3 seasons following back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored. From the predictive model, the Jets are 25-2 SU and 22-5 ATS (82%) winners in home games, gaining at least 5.5 yards per play and allowing 17 or fewer points. The Bears are 1-51 SU, 6-45-1 ATS (12%) when allowing 5.5 or more yards per play and scoring 17 or fewer points. |
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11-26-22 | Notre Dame v. USC -4 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Notre Dame vs USC 5% MAX 10-Unit Best bet on Southern Cal minus the points From the predictive model, we are expecting USC to score at least 31 points, gain at least 100+ more yards of total offense and have the same or fewer turnovers. USC is 48-0 SU and 42-6 ATS (88%) when meeting or exceeding these performance measures since 2006 and 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS the past five seasons. Betting on home favorites between 4 and 10 points in weeks 10 on out and facing a foe that has gone Over the total by 49 or more points in their last five games has earned a 15-4 SU (79%) and 14-5 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs LA Chargers 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Chargers plus the points and sprinkle the money line a bit too. Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing an opponent whose defense has not forced a single turnover in their past two games has earned a 49-21 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season, these dogs soar to 31-12 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The Chiefs are just 2-15 against the spread after gaining 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games. They are also 2-16 against the spread after gaining .an average of 450 or more total yards per game over their past three games. From the predictive model we are expecting the charges to gain at least 80 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Chargers met or exceeded these performance measures has lead them to a 25-7 straight up record for 78% winning bets and 22-8 - 2 for 73% winning bets against the spread. |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys -1 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points or use the moneyline if it is a cheaper price at your sportsbook. The Dallas Cowboys are 9-1 for 90% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 12.4 points per game when facing a defense that is allowing 225 or more passing yards per game in games played over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 7-2 for 78% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 7.50 points per bet when facing a defense that is allowing 7.00 or more yards per pass attempt in games played over the last two seasons. They are also a perfect 6-0 covering the spread by an average of 10 points per game when coming off a terrible defensive effort in which they allowed six or more yards per play in games played over the last two seasons. From the predictive model we are expecting Dallas to gain at least 125 rushing yards average more yards gained per play than the Vikings and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Vikings. In past games in which the Cowboys met or exceeded these performance measures has LED them to a perfect 16- hi0 record and 16-0 against the spread covering each bet by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Vikings in the same situation are 0-9 straight up and against the spread and losing to the spread by an average of 11 points per game. |
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11-20-22 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 31-18 | Win | 100 | 101 h 3 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs New York Giants 5% 10-Unit Max bet Game of the Year 1:00 EST, Sunday, November 20,l 2022 If you have watched me for any length of time – even just a week – you already know how much I emphasize discipline. This is a 5% MAX Best Bet. That does not mean you consider betting a 20% amount, for instance. Bet with your heads and not over it and may all the wins be yours is my slogan and moto. This sia very strong betting opportunity and one that I do believe strongly will win, BUT BUTBUT please remember there is no such thing as a LOCK or guaranteed to win bet. As much research and supporting analytics are solidly behind the Lions, they could fail to cover the spread. Betting on teams that average 30 or fewer rushing attempts per game, are coming off an upset road win, had no more than a 4-minute time of possession advantage in that upset win, and now facing a foe that averages at least 32 minutes in time of possession has earned a 34-33 SU and 42-24-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the previous 15 seasons. If our team is facing a foe with a win percentage of .500 or better, our team soars a bit higher to produce a 28-24 SU record, 36-15-1 ATS for 71% winners over the past 15 seasons. If our team (obviously the Lions) is the underdog, they go to 14-20 SU and 24-9-1 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Now for the drumroll please. If our dog is priced at no more than 4-points, they have gone on to earn an 11-2 SU record and 12-1 ATS mark good for 92.3% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and is on a 7-0 ATS win streak since 2014. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Lions to average .5 or more yards per play than the Giants, average at least 7 yards per pass attempt, and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games since 2015 in which the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a highly profitable 15-3 SU (83%) mark and 17-1 ATS (94% winning bets. The Giants are 1-19 SU and 3-17 ATS (15%) when allowing 7 or more yards per pass attempt, gained.5 or fewer yards per play, and had the same or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 0-12 SUATS since 2017. |
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11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
New York Jets vs New England Patriots 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jets plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line at any price above +150 Betting on underdogs between 3 and 9.5 points that are coming off a home win and facing a foe that has won and covered the spread priced as a favorite in each of their last two games has earned a highly profitable 39-19-2 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2013. If the host has a lower win percentage than the guest, the home team is a nearly imperfect 1-7-1 ATS for 12% or facing these home favs has produced an exceptional 88% winning bets since 2010. |
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11-20-22 | Bears v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Falcons minus the points, or you like the moneyline that is valid too. Betting on any team that is facing a team that has won between 25 to 40% of their games on the season and has gone Over the posted totals by a combined 35 or more points over their last three games has produced a remarkable 23-7 SU (77%) record and 23-5-2 ATS (82%) winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State -7 | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan vs Kent State 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Kent State –7.5 points or better Betting on home teams from Week 8 on out that are averagig between 190 and 230 rushing yards per game and held their previous opponent to less than 100 rushing yards and facing an opponent that is averaging 140 to 190 rushing yards per game has earned a highy profitable 45-14 SU (76%) record and 40-16-3 ATS (71.4%) record since 2015. If a favorite between 3.5 and 9.5 points has produced a 10-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) winning bets record. The predictive mode shows an 83% probability that Kent State will score at least 31 points and have the same or fewer turnovers as Eastern Michigan. In past games in which Kent State met these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 17-4 SU (81%) and 16-5 ATS (76%) record since 2015. EMU is 2-28 (7%) and 7-22-1 ATS (24%) when allowing 31 or ore points and having the same or more turnovers than their opponent sice 2015. |
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11-13-22 | Canucks +197 v. Bruins | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Vancouver vs Boston 4% 8-Unit best Bet on Vancouver Betting on underdogs that have lost four or five of their previous 6 games and now facing a scorching hot team that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games has earned a 117-134 record, but by averaging a +171-underdog bet has produced a highly profitable 22% Roi over the past five seasons making 65 units in the process. If our dog is priced between 135 and 195 the results have been an even better 51-52 SU and producing a 28% ROI over the past five seasons. |
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11-13-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Mississippi State -24.5 | Top | 47-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
Arkansas Pine Bluff vs Mississippi State 4% 8-Unit best bet on the MST minus the points ARK is just 11-27 ATS when on the road and coming off three non-conference games in a row and 9-22 ATS after covering the spread in 2 ro more consecutive games. State is 45-22-3 ATS in home games with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. |
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11-13-22 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
Jaguars vs Chiefs 4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Jaguars and add a sprinkle to the moneyline Jacksonville has to feel much better snapping its five-game straight-up and pointspread losing streak in dramatic fashion, rallying from a 17-0 deficit against Las Vegas Raiders as QB Trevor Lawrence had an extremely efficient game (25 of 31 passing for 235 yds. with a TD and no interceptions plus rushing for 53 yards) and RB Travis Etienne turned in his third straight 100-yard game and now has 379 YR for 5.7 yards per rush attempt and four touchdowns in his last three games. Betting against favorites in games played in November that have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games has earned a 32-17-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets last five season and if that favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, our dogs play even better with a 21-4 ATS record good for 84% winning bets. |
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11-13-22 | Browns v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
Browns vsDolphins 1:00 EDT 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Dolphins The Dolphins have scored at least 30 points in their last two games, including a 35-32 win in Chicago in Week 9. The last time Miami had a longer streak was 2009 which lasted four games.The Dolphins are undefeated with Tua playing the complete game and I see that trend continuing again today.The Dolphins are averaging 7.0 yards per play on 1st and 10 this season, best in the NFL.The Browns defense is quite good, but Tua is far too smart and creative to be consistently stopped on first downs against anyone. Betting on favorites in a game in which both defenses allowing between 23 and 27.5 points per game, and with our favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each game has earned a 38-17-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2010. |
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11-13-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
Broncos vs Titans 4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Broncos Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which tye converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gopneto earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets. |
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11-13-22 | Texans +5 v. Giants | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
Texans vs Giants 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Texans Betting on road dogs in a game involving both teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game on the season and with the favored team coming off a game in which they forced zero turnovers has earned a 36-16-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our dog is coming off a game in which they converted 25% or fewer of their third down attempts has gone to earn a 9-3-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets. Giants are 4-7 ATS (36%) when taking on a foe that is completing at least 60% of their pass attempts in the second half of each of the past three seasons. From the predictive model, the Texans as a road dog are 16-2 ATS when holding their opponents to 21 or fewer points and forcing them into 2 or more turnovers. |
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11-10-22 | 76ers +1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks 5% 10-Unit Max Best bet on the 76ers Let’s get right to it, shall we? Betting on road underdogs, who lost to the current foe by three or fewer points in their last meeting, and the foe just lost a game priced as a favorite has earned a 35-10 ATS record good for 78% winning bets since 2017. If our dog is priced as a 4 or fewer-point underdog they have earned an 11-3 ATS record good for 79% winning bets since 2017. This is the first of two games against each other with the second game taking place Saturday in Philadelphia. Joel Embiid returned to the 76ers Monday having fully recovered from the flu while the Hawks Trey Young is back at full strength recovered from a lower leg injury. Embiid scored 33 points and 10 boards marking his fourth double-double of the young season. Not the same for Young, who shot horribly poor (10-for-28) in a 125-119 home loss last night. The 76ers bench is significantly better than the Hawks edition, who were outscored 43-19 last night. James Hardin remains out nursing a tendon strain in his right foot, but Tyrese Maxey, despite being so young, is learning quickly how to run the point for four quarters and doing it quite well. From the predictive mode, we are expecting the 76ers to score at least 111 points and make more 3-pointers than the Hawks. IN past games since 2017 in which the 76ers met these performance measures has seen them go on to a 96-16 SU record, 85-25-2 ATS (77%) record. When the Hawks have allowed 11 or more points and made fewer three-pointers than their opponent has seen them produce an 18-86 SU record and 23-81 ATS for 22% since 2017. |
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11-06-22 | Chargers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Chargers vs Falcons 1:00 EDT 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers Betting on favorites including pick-em in a matchup in which both teams are allowing an average of 23 to 27.5 PPG on the season and with the favorite coming off back-to-back games in which 50 or more points were scored in each one has earned a 56-29-1 ATS record good for 66% winning bets. Betting on road favorites that are gaining at least 250 passing yards per game and are coming off a game in which they gained 5.75 or fewer passing yards per attempt has earned a 44-10 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Plus, if our road favorite is coming off their BYE week, they then have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS. Falcons have been winning with smoke and mirrors having been outgained in total yards in 6 of their last 7 games. These pretenders have gone 28-48 ATS when priced as a dog with a win percentage of 50% or higher. |
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10-29-22 | USC -14 v. Arizona | Top | 45-37 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
USC vs Arizona 5% 10-UNIT NAX Best Bet on the USC Trojans minus the points USC has won nine straight meetings with Arizona, with the Wildcats' last win coming at home in 2012. The Trojans have won 15 of their 19 all-time visits to Tucson. Jordan Addison had seven catches for 106 yards and hauled in his seventh touchdown of the season, tied with Arizona's Jacob Cowing for the Pac-12 lead. Addison's next reception will mark the 200th of his college career. He is a transfer from Pittsburgh and currently ranks fifth among active FBS players with 199 career receptions and 2844 receiving yards, while his 28 career touchdowns rank second to UTSA's Zakhari Franklin, who has 29. The USC offense ranks ninth averaging 40.4 PPG and 8th with a 0.589 points-per-play ration in the nation. That explosive offense is going up against a defense in Arizona that ranks 123rd in the nation with a 0.554 points-per-play allowed and 124th allowing 37.7 PPG. The Wildcats have allowed 6.94 yards per play this season, third highest in the FBS behind Charlotte (7.36) and South Florida (7.00). Arizona has allowed 5.8 yards per rush this season, fourth most in the FBS, but held Washington to just 79 yards (2.7 yards per rush) in its last game. Betting on road favorites of 13 or more points that is facing a foe that is allowing 31 o more PPG and with that opponent coming off two consecutive games in which 60 or more points in total were scored has earned an outstanding 106-57-1 SYS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Plus, if being played from Week 9 on out and against a conference foe has improved the results to a 73-6 SU record and 55-24 ASTS for 70% winning bets. Take USC minus the points |
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10-26-22 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 227 | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
LA Lakers vs Denver Nuggets 4% 8-Unit best bet on the Under Betting the Under when the total is 210 or more points in a matchup between two teams getting outscored by 7 or more points per game has earned a highly profitable 29-19 Under record for 61% winning Under bets over the past 10 seasons. If either team allowed 1`25 or more points in their previous game, the Under then has gone 13-3 for 81% winning bets over the the past three seasons. |