Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-21-22 | Ravens v. Cardinals OVER 38.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Baltimore vs Arizona 4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total Essentially a self-fulfilling prophesy from the models as they expect both teams to score 20+ points in this game. The total opened at 41.5 points, but now is providing great value at 38.5 points for this preseason matchup. Note that Ravens are 16-0 Over in games in which both teams did score 20+ points and the Cardinals are 27-0 Over in preseason games in which both teams scored 20+ points. Plus, the first half Over bet at a price of 19.5 points looks good too noting that Harbaugh is 9-1 Over the first half total when coming off a double-digit home win |
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08-21-22 | Bengals v. Giants -5 | Top | 22-25 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Cincinnati Bengals vs NY Giants 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Giants minus the points The predictive models show a high probability that the Giants will score 21 to 27 points in this preseason game. The Bengals are just 6-25 ATS in the NFL preseason when they have allowed 21 to 27 points. Giants have a new head coach, and he will be looking to continue to the positive momentum they generated in the first game defeating the Patriots in Foxborough 23-21. |
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08-21-22 | Eagles -1.5 v. Browns | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs Cleveland Browns 4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles minus the points. Betting on road teams in a game lined between the 3’s and is coming off a game in which they forced no more than one turnover in their previous game has earned a 37-15-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons. The Browns defeated the Jaguars 24-13 and covered the spread as a 2.5-point underdog. The Browns are a miserable 3-15 ATS in preseason games coming off a double-digit win. |
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08-20-22 | Astros v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves 5% 10-UNIT MAX Best bet on UNDER the posted total Austin Riley hit a three-run homer off Lance McCullers Jr., Kyle Wright won his 15th game to tie for the NL lead, and the Atlanta Braves defeat the Houston Astros 6-2 on Friday night in the teams' first meeting since last year's World Series. The Braves have the third-best record at 30-14 since July 1 and are 18-9 since the all-star break. They have won 10 of their last 11 games. Teams that have won 10 of their last 11 games and are home favorites of not more than –145 have seen the Under produce a 22-12 record goof for 65% winners over the last five seasons. From my predictive models we are expecting both starters to complete a combined total of at least 12 innings in this matchup. In past games occurring after the all-star break and with both teams having won 60% or more of their games on the season has seen the Under produce a 22-8-1 Under record good for 73% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and is 5-1 Under over the last three seasons. |
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08-20-22 | Liberty v. Sky -9 | Top | 62-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
New York Liberty vs Chicago Sky Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the playoffs that lost their previous game priced as a favorite have produced an 9-3 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The Sky lost Game-1 98-91 as 10-point favorites and I fully expect them to bounce back with a big-time effort to even this series. |
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08-19-22 | Nationals +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 6-3 | Win | 140 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Washington Nationals +270 vs San Diego Padres -330 The Washington Nationals are arguably the worst team in MLB, but they were heroes last night as they were my best bet on the MLB Angle of the Day show. This quick-hitting video can be seen Monday through Friday and always features a highly profitable time-tested situational angle and system that you can track and use for your own betting opportunities. The Washington Nationals are my bet again tonight when they host the San Diego Padres and are priced as enormous underdogs. Situational Trends and Angles The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Marlins in this matchup. The Padres are 27-46 losing 40 units on the moneyline when facing an NL team that is batting .250 or lower in games played in the second half of each of the last two seasons The Nationals are 7-2 making 11 units on the moneyline following two consecutive Under results in games played this season. The Padres are 5-10 losing 11.1 units on the moneyline in home games after allowing four or fewer runs in three consecutive games this season. I am going to the window betting the Nationals on the +1.5 run line +140 as offered at FanDuel. |
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08-19-22 | Royals v. Rays OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
Kansas City vs Tampa Bay Betting the Over in games with a total of 7 or fewer runs in a game played on Friday or is the first game of a series and with a struggling bullpen sporting an ERA of 7.00 or higher over their last 10 games has produced a 39-15-1 Over record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 MLB seasons. |
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08-19-22 | Mets v. Phillies -117 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -117 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies These NL East divisional rivals begin a four-game series that potentially determine their playoff fates. Betting on home teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least 0.5 RPG following a game in which they were shutout has earned an outstanding 100-41 record for 71% winning bets and producing a 26.4% ROI over the last five seasons. Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball and if not for the remarkable season that Sandy Alcantara has put in, would be a contender for the Cy Young award. His season-to-date stats are among the best and he has walked the fewest batters per start in the Majors. His strikeout to walk ratio ranks tops in MLB. |
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08-05-22 | Yankees v. Cardinals +137 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 137 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals 5% MAX 10-UNIT best bet on the St. Louis Cardinals using the money line Ok, so just a reminder not to extend the amount bet on this 5% MAX Best Bet, especially on the reason that I am 9-0 in MLB last 12 months with these special situations. The Cardinals are off a divisional sweep of the Chicago Cubs and won both ends of the double-header played yesterday. Teams off a three-game divisional sweep and now playing in an inter-league game against an opponent with more wins on the season they have earned has produced a 23-13 record averaging a 117-underdog wager resulting in a highly profitable 38% ROI over the last 18 seasons, 19-10 record for 65.5% wins averaging a 118-money line wager and producing a remarkable 43.3% ROI over the last 10 seasons. Cardinals are 62-41 making 23 units when taking on a foe that averages 7+ strikeouts per game in the second half of each of the last two seasons. The Yankees are 3-10 losing 13 units following four or more consecutive OVER results in games played over the last two seasons. Cardinals are 25-14 when the total has been lined at 8 or 8.5 runs this season. |
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07-28-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | 13-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies 4% Best Bet Dodgers on the –1.5 Run Line I also like a team total bet of 1% amount OVER Dodgers team total Dodgers are 55-36 on the run line when facing a bullpen that is overused and averages 3.2 innings per game on the season; 54-34 when facing a foe that averages 7+ strikeouts per game, and LA Dodger starter Tyler Anderson is 12-4 on the run line when facing a team that strikeouts 7+ times per game. Dodgers are also 31-12 on the run line after allowing two or fewer runs I games played this season and 12-3 on the run line following a win of 6 or ore runs in games played this season. |
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07-24-22 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan -115 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 10 m | Show |
Toronto vs Saskatchewan 4% best bet on Saskatchewan at pick-em or up to a –2 point favorite. Road dogs of not more than 2.5 points and facing as team with a win percentage of 65% and higher are just 8-15 ATS for 35% wins and that obviously works against Toronto in this matchup. The models are projecting a high probability that SAS will score at least 28 points. Over the last 10 seasons the Roughriders are 29-19-1 ATS in home games when scoring 28 or more points. The Argonauts are just 15-47-1 ATS in road games in which they allowed 28 or more points over the last 10 seasons. |
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07-21-22 | Giants v. Dodgers -120 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
National League Best Bet Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants The all-star break is completed, and MLB looks to resume their great season Thursday. One of the key matchups features the NL West rivals Giants host the Dodgers, who have the best record in the NL at 60-30 and lead the Giants by 12.5 games in the divisional race. The Giants are only a ½-game out for one of the three Wild Card berths so this series is moumentally important for them to win. The Trends and Angles The following situational trends and angle support a betting opportunity on the Dodgers. The Giants are 0-7 when playing on Thursdays this season. The Giants are 7-12 after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Dodgers are 46-11 in home games when on a two or more-game win streak over the past two seasons. I am going to the window betting the Dodgers using the moneyline as an 8-Unit Bet offered at -140 at BetMGM. |
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07-16-22 | Dodgers v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Dodgers vs Angels 5% 10-UNIT MAX Best Bet UNDER the posted total Betting the Under when the total is between 8.5 and 10 runs with the road team starting a pitcher with a solid WHIP of 1.05 or lower on the season and is an excellent fielding team averaging .5 or fewer errors per game on the season has earned a 69-36-2 record for 65.7% winners over the last five seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the regular season, after game number 81, the Under has earned a 14-7 record for 67% winning Under bets. In Dodgers SP Urias last start he allowed 5 ER on just 3 hits over 2 innings. The last time he went two or fewer innings was back on April 10 at Colorado allowing 6 Runs and 3 ER on six hits. In his next start he completed five innings allowed zero ER, one hit, one walk, and five strikeouts in a 5-2 win over Cincinnati. I fully expect him to repeat this type of bounce back tonight. Angels are really struggling at the plate scoring 4.0 RPG and batting .230 for the season. Over the last seven games they have scored just 3.4 RPG and batted just .223. Dodgers pen has posted a 2.70 ERA with a .943 WHIP should Urias need any relief early. Dodgers are 15-5 for 75% Under winning bets on the road when the total has been 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Urias is 8-1 Under when working on five or six days of rest this season. Take the UNDER for a 5% 10-UNIT max Best Bet tonight |
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07-08-22 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan UNDER 47 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Ottawa vs Saskatchewan 9:30 EDT, July 8, 2022 4% best bet on the Under Ottawa is a solid 32-11-1 Under after playing a game in which 63 or more points were scored in each one, 13-4 Under after allowing 95 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games, and 12-4 Under in games played on turf spanning the last two seasons. Ottawa head coach LaPolice is 20-8 Under when priced as a road underdog. Saskatchewan head coach Dickerson is 9-1 Under in home games after outgaining opponent by 70 or more total yards in their previous game. The Under is the right side of this game. |
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07-04-22 | Winnipeg -4.5 v. Toronto | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 16 m | Show | |
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Toronto Argonauts 7:30 EDT, July 4, 2022 4% best bet on the Blue Bombers minus the points The Argonauts are coming off a dreadful 44-3 loss as 4-point underdogs at the hands of British Columbia in their last game. Betting against home teams that scored fewer than 10 points have been a money-burning has produced a 46-34-1 ATS record for 58% winners last 20 seasons and 26-12 ATS for 69% winners if they scored 6 or fewer points, and if scored fewer than 6 points have gone 22-9 ATS for 71% winning bets. Also, road favorites in a non-divisional matchup and playing on Mondays are 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU. |
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07-03-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -190 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -190 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
San Diego vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4:10 EDT, July 3, 2022 4% best bet on the Dodgers on the money line Kershaw has the ball for the Dodgers, and he was roughed up in his last start allowing six earned runs on nine hits including two home runs. The last time he yielded 6+ earned runs in a start was on June 19 of the 2017 season when he allowed six earned runs to the New York Mets. In his next start against the Rockies, the Dodgers won, with Kershaw completing six innings, allowing zero earned runs, 1 walk, and 8 strikeouts. I expect a similar bounce back from him today. In home games at Dodgers Stadium, Kershaw is 100-40 in 197 starts with an incredible 2.22 ERA and 1,472 strikeouts. Betting on favorites that are a strong offensive team scoring an average of 5.0 or more RPG on the season, has allowed two or fewer runs in back-to-back games, and facing a NL starting pitcher with a 3.70 ERA or better has produced an exceptional 56-26 record for 68% winning bets since 2004. If our favorite is playing at home, the record gets even better with a 38-11 record for 78% winning bets and a highly profitable 25% ROI. |
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07-03-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
LA Angels vs Houston Astros 2:10 EDT, July 3, 2022 4% best bet on the Angels using the +1.5-run line Angels lost the first two games of this three-game series badly by a combined scored of 17-2. The predictive models have targeted the Angels to play significantly better and have a much better day at the plate and on the scoreboard. Betting on road teams using the +1.5-run line that are facing a host that defeated them by eight or more runs in the previous game and starting a pitcher in strong form with an ERA of 3.00 over his last 10 starts has produced a 30-10 record good for 75% winning bets since 2004. Angels are 38-234 on the +1.5 run ine after losing three of their last four games. Angels wake up and realize they need to win, but I will still take the +1.5 run line. |
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07-03-22 | Yankees -165 v. Guardians | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -165 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians 1:40 PM EDT, July 3, 2022 4% best bet on the New York Yankees on the money line The Yankees scored four runs in each of two innings and had a total of four multiple run innings in yesterday’s 13-4 win over the Guardians. Road teams that have outscored their opponents by at least 100 or more runs, had four or more multiple run innings in their previous game and the host is priced as a 100 to 170 underdog has earned a 33-17 record for 66% winners since 2004 and if the game was played in July, the record is a perfect 11-0! The Guardians McKenzie is on the hill, and he has been rocked for 6 and 7 earned runs in his last two starts. Since 2004, teams playing in July that are scoring 4.75 or more RPG and facing a starter that allowed 6 or more earned runs in each of his last two starts are 15-4 for 79% winning bets. |
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07-02-22 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
San Diego vs Los Angeles 7:15 EDT, July 2, 2022 4% best bet on the OVER Padres are 16-7 Over when facing an elite fielding team averaging 0.5 or fewer errors on the season. Dodgers are 38-21 when facing a NL starter that has a WHIP of 1.15 or better over the last two seasons. San Diego is 29-14 in road games after a five-game span where their bullpen has struggled to a 6.50 or worse ERA. San Diego is 28-12 Over in road games following a five-game span with an OBP of .285 or worse over the last two seasons. |
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07-02-22 | Rangers +120 v. Mets | Top | 7-3 | Win | 120 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Texas Rangers vs New York Mets 4:10 PM EST, July 2, 2022 4% best bet on the Rangers using the money line and boxed with Perez and Williams starting for the Rangers and Mets respectively. Here is a strong situational betting angle that I really like and has been a largely consistent money maker over many seasons. Bet on road teams when the total is 8.5 or 9 runs, have lost between 1 and 3 of their previous games, had no multiple run innings in their previous loss, and facing a foe that has a win percentage of 60% or higher on the season, and our road team is allowing an average of 1.75 or fewer runs per game by the bullpen (earned and unearned) This set of game parameters has earned a 38-34 record, averaging a +130 underdog bet and producing a 26% ROI. |
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07-02-22 | Angels +141 v. Astros | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
LA Angels vs Houston Astros 4:10 EDT, July 2, 2022 4% best bet on the LA Angels using the money line Here is another big money maker that applied to this matchup and supports the bet on the Angels, who lost 8-1 to the Astros Friday. Bet on teams when the total is between 8 and 9 runs in a divisional matchup, coming off a game with no multiple run innings, is on a 1 to 3-game losing streak, playing a foe that has won 60% or more of their games, and our team’s bullpen is allowing 2 or fewer runs per game has earned a 67-50 record averaging a +115 dog wager and a very good 21% ROI over the last five seasons. Angels are 23-13 in road games and having batted .225 or worse over their last five games in games played over the last two seasons. |
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07-01-22 | Rangers +176 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Rangers vs Mets 7:10 EDT, July 1, 2022 4% Best bet on the Texas Rangers on the money line Both teams had off Thursday to end the month of June. The New York Mets went 13-12 and saw their NL East Division lead of 11 games shrink to just 3 games over the Atlanta Braves entering July. The Braves went 21-6 and only the New York Yankees were better with a 22-6 record in June. The Mets are not playing consistently for weeks now and they cannot overlook a Texas Rangers squad looking to get back to .500 and be a contender for the Al Wild Card berths. The Mets are in good shape, though, knowing that they will be getting Max Scherzer back and then Jacob DeGrom returns most likely in August. They are the two aces of the pitching staff and it only stands to reason that the Mets will win a lot more games with them in the rotation.
· The Rangers are 25-17 when facing a starting pitcher that allows and average of 5.5 or fewer hits per start this season. · The Rangers are 45-25 when facing a NL starting pitcher with a 1.15 or better WHIP spanning the last 25 seasons. · The Rangers are an impressive 16-7 as underdog between +125 and +175 producing an outstanding 48% ROI this season. |
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07-01-22 | Brewers v. Pirates +185 | Top | 19-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
Milwaukee vs Pittsburgh 7:10 EDT, July 1, 2022 4% best bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates on the money line Pirates are 43-37 making 27 units following game in which they hit four or more home runs. Betting on home underdogs that are scoring an average of 3.8 RPG, after back-to-back games allowing at least seven runs in each, and facing an opponent with a solid bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has produced a 23-8 record for 73% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. It has averaged a +135 underdog wager. |
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06-28-22 | Twins v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Cleveland 1:05 EDT 4% Under Best Bet Here is a terrific betting angle that has produced a 30-10 Under record for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet the Under in games with a total of 8 or 8.5 runs with the team scoring between 4.4 and 4.9 RPG and facing a solid AL starter with an ERA of 4.25 or lower on the season. Twins skipper Baldelli is 21-10 Under following a game in which they allowed no more than a single run in a win over a divisional rival. Twins won 11-1 in game-1 of this four-game series. |
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06-27-22 | Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners 10:10 PM EDT, June 27, 2022 4% best bet on the Under The Seattle Mariners have won five of six games by sweeping the Oakland A’s and taking two of three games from the LA Angels. The Mariners, though, continue to struggle offensively and have scored more than 5 runs in just three games over their last 15 games. The Orioles have been hot as well having won four of their last five games and took three of four games form the CWS. They now will play the Mariners for three games before ending their 9-game road trip with a 3-game series against the Minnesota Twins. Tyler Wells will start for the Orioles, and he is 5-4 in 14 starts with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.098 WHIP. He has gone 3-0 over his last three starts with a stellar 2.12 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP. George Kirby starts for the Mariners and he is 2-2 in nine starts with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.122 WHIP. Over his last three starts he is 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP including just three walks and 16 strikeouts spanning 17 innings of work. The Mariners bullpen has been nearly hitless over their last seven games sporting a 0.44 ERA and a .885 WHIP. The Orioles pen has been nearly equally as strong sporting a 1.11 ERA and a .740 WHIP over their last seven games. This matchup points to the UNDER and the models grade it as a 4% betting opportunity tonight. |
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06-27-22 | Twins v. Guardians +114 | Top | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Cleveland 7:10 EDT, June 27 4% best bet on the Cleveland Guardians using the money line Betting on home teams that are facing a foe that has had two straight games in which they had Zero home runs and is starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.00 or lower spanning his last five starts has produced a 68-34 record good for 67% winning bets and making the $100 bettor a $3900 profit over the last five seasons. Bet the Cleveland Guardians as a 4% best bet |
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06-27-22 | A's +253 v. Yankees | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Oakland vs NY Yankees 7:05 EDT, June 27, 2022 4% best bet on the Oakland Athletics using the money line Consider splitting this wager to be a 2.75% amount on the run line and a 1.25% on the money line for a more conservative combination wager. I like the money line and is based on season-long results in betting these massive dogs and knowing they will make us money over the course of a season. Oakland will start Blackburn, who is 6-0 in road games when facing a team that strikeouts an average of 7 or more times per game this season. The Yankees start left-hander Montgomery, who is 6-10 when facing a foe that is being outscored by at least 0.5 RPG in games played over the last two seasons. |
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06-26-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning +103 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Colorado vs Tampa Bay 8:15 EDT, June 26, 2022 4% best bet on the Tampa Bay Rays on the money line in Game-6 0.5% bet on Alex Killorn to score a point +135 0.5% 1st period 3-way Tampa has the lead +200 Per my models, which have done very well this season, it appears we are heading to a Game-7 to decide the Stanley Cup Champion. Road teams in the NHL Finals that have won 15 or more of their last 20 games and playing their fourth game with four total days of rest over the last week are 6-9 on the money line with the Under sporting a solid 10-4-1 record for 72% winning bets. Lightning is 47-17 in home games facing a foe that averages 29 or more shots on goal and converts 15% or more of their power play chances in games played over the last two seasons. They are 50-19 after two or more Under results in games played over the last three seasons. From my models, we are expecting the Lightning and Vasilevskiy to contain the Avalanche to two goals. Lightning is 28-5 when allowing two goals exact in games played over the last two seasons and 44-5 when allowing no more than two goals over the last two seasons. |
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06-26-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs San Diego 4:10 EDT, June 26, 2022 4% best bet on the Phillies using the +1.5 run line Harper has a broken thumb and will be out indefinitely, which is a huge loss, but somehow, this may be the situation, that wakes up the entire roster and has everyone stepping up their game. Even without Harper in the lineup, the Phillies are a formidable offensive force. Harper is a loss, but they have plenty of depth in this lineup to get through the next 4 to 6 weeks without him and remain in playoff contention. Betting on road teams using the +1.5 run line facing a host whose bullpen did not give an ER in two straight games and is starting a pitcher with excellent control sporting a 1.100 over his last 10 starts has earned a highly profitable 78-40 record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The SU record has been 58-60. |
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06-26-22 | A's +151 v. Royals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 151 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Oakland vs KC 2:10 EDT 4% best bet on the Oakland A’s using the money line A’s are 26-12 making 14 units when facing a struggling bullpen posting an ERA of 4.70 or higher on the season over the last two seasons. Royals are a horrid 15-32 when facing a starting pitcher that has lost 80% or more of their decisions on the season. They are also just 10-21 losing 20 units when priced as a favorite between -125 and -175 over the last two seasons. |
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06-26-22 | Astros +160 v. Yankees | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
Houston vs Yankees 1:35 EDT, June 26, 2022 4% Best Bet on the Houston Astros on the money line The Yankees were no hit Saturday and we were on the Astros +150, which was quite nice to see. The Yankees have scored a total of one run over their last two games and if not for the bottom of the ninth heroics in Game-1, they would be in danger of getting swept by the Astros at home. This is all part of my statements made on the Full Count MLB show where I said the Yankees were ripe for regression. They are simply not DUE to score a monster number of runs in this series final because they scored just 1 run in their last two games. They could certainly, and if they do, it is not because they scored just 1 run or were not hit in their last game. Home teams that are 20 games over .500, that scored 1 or zero runs in each of their last two games, playing in the last game of a series are just 13-15 averaging a -160 favorite and producing a -20% ROI. So, the fade is in full force again for this series finale on the Astros. |
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06-25-22 | Mets v. Marlins +132 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Mets vs Marlins 4:10 EDT 4% best on the Marlins on the money line Betting on home underdogs of +125 to +175 starting a pitcher that averages fewer than 5 innings per start and facing a NL foe that is starting a pitcher with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 on the season has earned an outstanding 50-28 record averaging a +141 underdog bet over the last 25 seasons and is 19-9 over the last five seasons. The Mets start Bassitt and he has lost three of his last four starts and has posted a 4.39 ERA and a 1.133 WHIP over his last three starts. He just lost 6-2 to the Marlins June 19 in his last start at Citi Field. The Marlins pen is doing great recently with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.182 WHIP over their last 7 games. |
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06-25-22 | Pirates +158 v. Rays | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay 1:10 EDT, June 25 4% best bet on the Pirates using the money line Betting on NL underdogs of 125 to 175 with a slugging percentage of .400 or lower, starting a pitcher with a solid WHIP between 1.35 and 1.45 on the season and facing an elite AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or lower on the season has earned an outstanding 40-25 record averaging a +150 underdog bet over the last 25 seasons. JT Brubaker starts for the Pirates and he is top form posting a 2.45 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP over his last three starts. We are getting paid to assume the risk of this losing record underdog. |
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06-25-22 | Astros +152 v. Yankees | Top | 3-0 | Win | 152 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Houston vs NY Yankees 1:05 EDT, June 25, 2022 4% best bet on the Astros using the money line This system has earned a 48-31 record good for 61% winning bets averaging a +145 wager over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs of 125 to 175 facing a foe with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games and with a strong bullpen that has posted a 2.00 or lower ERA over their last five games. Regression does happen even to the best teams in MLB. Baker is 12-2 when facing a foe with a starting pitcher that has won 80% or more of their decisions and 30-12 when facing AL starter with an ERA of 3.40 or lower. |
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06-21-22 | Mariners v. A's +132 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Seattle vs Oakland 9:40 EDT, June 21, 2022 Oakland is a terrible team, period, but even the worst teams in baseball do not lose every game. Seattle is a struggling team and I do not see why in the world they are favored – even against the A’s – in this matchup. They have lost three straight and nine of their last 13 games. They are batting just .183 and scoring 2.3 RPG over their last seven games. The one thing that Oakland does well is relief pitching as that unit has posted a 2.22 ERA with a 1.233 WHIP over their last seven games. James Kaprielian will start for the A’s and is 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP in nine starts this season. He is averaging 4.6 innings per start and note that Seattle is 1-12 losing 14 units when facing a starter that averages less than five innings per start in games played this season. I like the Oakland A’s as a 4% bets bet on the money line. |
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06-21-22 | Giants v. Braves -153 | Top | 12-10 | Loss | -153 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
San Francisco vs Atlanta 7:20 EDT, June 21, 2022 This is a 4% best bet on the Atlanta Braves using the money line. This bet is supported by one of my more than 4,000 betting algorithms and systems that has earned a 42-11 record for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams priced as a favorite that has a solid bullpen posting a season-to-date ERA of 3.50 or lower on the season and is now facing a solid offensive team scoring an average of 4.7 RPG and has batted no better than .220 over their last 10 games. Braves Strider is on the hill and he throws 98 to 100 MPH with heavy and late breaking action generating a ton of ground ball outs, especially against launch angle-happy batters like the Giants lineup. I also like betting OVER 6.5 strikeouts -135 for a 0.5 amount. |
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06-21-22 | Dodgers v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
LA Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds 6:40 EDT, June 21 This betting algorithm/system has done very well over the past five seasons producing a 47-19 record for 71% winning bets. The requirements are to bet the Under in a game where the home team is from the NL and is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 to 4.20 on the season and is coming off two starts allowing not more than a single earned run in each start. The Reds will start Tyler Mahle, who has a 4.10 ERA and a 1.219 WHIP in 14 starts this season. However, he has found his top form and posted a 1.71 ERA and 0.857 WHIP over his last three starts and has allowed just one earned run in his last two starts. Tony Gonsolin starts for the Dodgers and is a perfect 8-0 in 12 starts with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.821 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0.49 ERA and a 0.900 WHIP with only 4 walks and 16 strikeouts spanning 18 2/3 innings of work. Runs will be tough to find I this pitcher’s duel and I like the Under as a 4% best bet. |
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06-20-22 | Royals v. Angels -183 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -183 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Kansas City vs LA Angels 9:38 EDT, June 20, 2022 4% best bet on the Angels The Angels are the most undervalued teams in the marketplace right now. That does Not mean they will win every game, but it does me that my predictive models are expecting the Angels to win more than lose with a projection of 13 or more wins over their next 20 games. Trout is on fire like he always is June and despite batting 0.255 in June, his OPS is an amazing 1.076. He has hit five home runs in the last five games. The rest of the lineup is doing better as a result his performances of late and the Angels are not dependent on Trout to win the games for them. Syndergaard gets the nod for the Angels and is 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in three career starts against the Royals. Left-hander Kris Bubic (0-4, 8.36) will make his ninth start of the year for the Royals and has faced the Angels once, getting tagged for the loss in a game last season when he gave up six runs in four innings. I see more of the same in this matchup for Bubic. |
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06-18-22 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Philadelphia vs Washington 4:35 EDT, June 18, 2022 4% Best Bet OVER Philadelphia on a 12-2 win streak and the offense that is one of the best in MLB is coming together quite well. They took both games of the double-header Friday and will be playing Game-4 of this rare five-game series. Nationals are a bad team period. They have lost five straight and are 5-10 in June. Philadelphia is 13-3 Over in road games when facing a NL foe with a team batting average of 0.255 or lower in games played this season, 12-2 Over when facing a poor bullpen that has posted an ERA of 4.20 or worse in games this season, and 9-1 Over when facing teams that are allowing 4.5 or more RPG this season. |
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06-18-22 | Jon Rahm v. Collin Morikawa +115 | 71-77 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
PGA Matchups for Round 3 Best Bets Bet 3% Collin Morikawa +115 over Jon Rahm |
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06-18-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -129 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays 3:07 EDT, June 17, 2022 4% best bet on the Blue Jays Tremendous pitching matchup with Taillon (7-1, 2.93 ERA) on the hill for the Yankees going against the Blue Jays Manoah (8-1, 1.67). Yankees are scorching hot and are 40-10 since April 22 and is the first time they have won 40+ games over a 50-game span since 1998. The last MLB team to win at least 40 of 50 games was the Cleveland Guardians in 2017, who went 42-8. Yankees are just 38-40 losing 25 units in day games over the last three seasons. Manoah is 18-3 (team record) making 15 units in games with a total between 8.5 and 10 runs over the last two seasons. |
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06-18-22 | Brian Harman v. Aaron Wise -120 | 75-75 | Push | 0 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Bet 3% on Aaron Wise -122 over Brian Harman My research earlier in the week identified Wise as a sleeper in the field that had all of the characteristics that fit this great golf course and its’ small greens that average only 5K square feet. Wise ranks 16th in shots gained on approach and 38thon tour in proximity to the hole. Harman has played great over the first two days, but he does not the shot making and striking that Wise has put on display here at this venue and over the course of this season. |
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06-18-22 | Matthew Fitzpatrick v. Sam Burns +103 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Bet 3% on Sam Burns +100 over Matthew Fitzpatrick Sam Burns ranks fourth on tour in shots gain on approach. Fitz is a great player too, but ranks 25th in this category. Any minute miscue off the club face that is just enough to miss the green or have the ball run off the green into the intermediate or primary rough will be the difference between contending tomorrow or not. I like Sam Burns in this matchup at just +100. |
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06-18-22 | Braves -160 v. Cubs | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Atlanta vs Chicago Cubs 2:20 EDT, June 18, 2022 4% best bet on the Braves on the money line I like a combination wager of betting a 3% best bet on the money line and then a 1% best bet on the run line. Either strategy is valid, and this play will be graded on the money line. Atlanta had its’ 14-game win streak snapped in a 1-0 loss to the Cubs Friday and had the bases loaded with two outs in the top of the ninth inning. A loss is a loss. A strong team remains a strong team even after a shutout loss. Teams that have won 12 of their last 15 games, coming off a shutout loss, and now favored by -175 or more on the money line have gone 15-3 for 79% winners and 11-5 on the run line for 30% ROI and 69% winners going back to the 2004 season. Plus, 8-0 and 6-2 on the Run Line since 2016. |
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06-17-22 | Rangers +105 v. Tigers | Top | 7-0 | Win | 105 | 2 h 34 m | Show |
Texas vs Detroit 7:10 EDT, June 17, 2022 4% bets bet on the Texas Rangers on the money line Rangers are an outstanding 14-9 making 12.5 units when facing an AL SP that has an ERA under 3.00 in games played over the last two seasons. Detroit is a miserable 3-11 in home games taking on a foe that averages 3 or fewer walks per game this season. Betting on AL underdogs starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.75 to 5.75 and facing a foe that has posted a .310 OBP over his last 20 games and scoring 4.2 or fewer RPG has earned a 36-18 record for 67% winners and has averaged a very descent +135 underdog bet. |
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06-17-22 | Cardinals v. Red Sox -110 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
St. Louis vs Boston 7:10 EDT, June 17, 2022 4% best bet on the Boston Red Sox on the money line Bet on teams in a game lined between a -125 favorite and a 125 underdog that is taking on an opponent that is coming off a loss to a divisional rival and was priced as a -150 or greater favorite and is a matchup of winning record teams has produced a 42-26 record good for 62% winners and has produced a 24.3% ROI over the last five seasons. |
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06-17-22 | Phillies -106 v. Nationals | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 30 m | Show | |
Philadelphia vs Washington Game-2 4% best bet on the Phillies on the money line Washington is 9-32 as a home underdog of 125 or more in games played over the last two seasons and 19-39 in home games after losing four or five of their last 6 games in games played over the last two seasons. This will be the third game of a rare five-game series featuring divisional foes. As a result, emergency starters are used and that may not be that urgent if they are coming out of the bullpen as a long reliever or even as an opener. The Phillies Bailey Falter is that guy and he makes the start tonight. He has made two starts this season and has posted a 3.52 ERA on a small sample size, but he has the tools to be an effective pitcher at this level going up against a very weak hitting and just terrible team in the Nationals. Paolo Espino makes the start for the Nationals and he is making his second start after being brought up June 12. He averages 89 MPH with his fastball and is not going to overwhelm any batter at this level, especially a Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in MLB averaging 4.91 RPG and third averaging 1.31 home runs per game. |
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06-09-22 | Diamondbacks +130 v. Reds | Top | 5-4 | Win | 130 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
Arizona vs Cincinnati 12:35 PM EST, June 9, 2022 4% best bet on the money line with the Arizona Diamondbacks The following betting system has earned a highly profitable 25-19 record good for 72% winning bets over the last five seasons for a profit-producing 29.31% ROI spanning the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs that have lost five or six of their last seven games, has won 45 to 49.9% of their games on the season (one-game under 0.500) and facing a team with a losing record. This points solidly to backing the Diamondbacks in this early after game Thursday. |
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06-08-22 | Warriors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 100-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics 8:00 EDT, June 8, 2022 5% MAX Best Bet on the Warriors plus the points Let’s get right to it. The Warriors are the best team in the NBA coming out of the half with Coach Kerr making the correct adjustments based on the first half of action and then anticipating the adjustments that his opponent will make for the second half. That was quite evident in Game-2 and Game-1 as well before the Warriors fell flat in the fourth quarter. Playoff teams, like the Warriors that have outscored their opponents by 25 or more points in the third quarter and are coming off an ATS cover by at least 3 points are 21-10 SU and 20-11 ATS for 65% winning bets. Warriors are 10-5 ATS over the last five playoff seasons and 5-1 ATS over the last three playoff seasons coming off two consecutive home games. Kerr is 44-26-1 ATS following a game in which his team allowed 90 or fewer points. From my predictive models, the Warriors are expected to score at least 111 points and have the better and more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. In past regular and playoff season games under Kerr, the Warriors are 284-28 straight-up and 223-82-7 ATS for 73% winning bets; 42-4 SU and 33-13 ATS for 72% winning bets in playoff games. Bet the Warriors plus the points. If they are trailing at the half, consider an optional 1% wager betting the in-game line on the Warriors, which should be higher than 3.5 points if the Celtics are winning at the half. |
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06-06-22 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Colorado vs Edmonton 8 EDT, June 6, 2022 4% best bet on the Puck Line –1.5 Colorado +175. Edmonton is a terrible 3-15 ATS in Game-4 of a playoff series L20 playoff seasons and 1-5 ATS last 5 playoff seasons. Avalanche is 26-6 money line, 23% ROI and 19-11 ATS, 35% ROI following five consecutive games with at least 30 shots on goal in each of the five games plays this season; 5-2 money line 11% ROI and Puck line (ATS) 101% ROI over the past 5 seasons. |
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06-05-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 4-5 | Win | 130 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
Detroit Tigers vs NY Yankees 11:35 AM EST, June 5, 2022 3% best bet on the Detroit Tigers on the run line and a 1.5% best bet on the Money line. I will be discussing the handicapping concept of regression each on the Full Count Show this week as well as my 2-minute quick-hitting free pick MLV videos airing M-F on the Predictive Playbook channel. Bes uyre to tune in for more in-depth analysis of this profitable strategy. So, home teams favored by –175 or more that have outscored their opponents by 100 or more runs in games played in the month of June are horrid ones to back with your money. They have earned a 49-30 record for 62% wins, BUT have averaged a –225.3 favorite and the result is a massive loss of $2,.115 wager just $100 per game played on these juggernaut teams. Fading these powerful teams has averaged a +205 underdog bet, making $1570 per $100 wagered for a solid 23% return-on-investment (ROI). If our favorites are lined on the –1.5 run line at =140 or more (more negative, more favored), then the run line record has been 7-8 betting against them, producing a 25% ROI averaging a +140 +1.5 run line wager on our barking underdog. |
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06-02-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche -163 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Edmonton vs Colorado 8 EDT, June 2, 2022 4% best bet on the Colorado Avalanche using the money line Here is an alternative betting strategy that you can consider for tonight’s game. Bet 75% pre-flop (before the game starts) and honestly hope that Edmonton scores first and then add the 25% available amount on the live in-game line, which I anticipate will be at -150 and possibly lower. Bet on home teams in the second half of the season including the playoffs that is taking on a foe that is scoring an average of 2.85 or more goals per game and that has scored 5 or more goals in three consecutive games has earned a solid 37-17 record for 68% winning bets over the last 25 NHL seasons; 15-4 on the money line producing a highly profitable 48% ROI over the last five seasons. |
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05-27-22 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Miami vs Boston 4% best bet on the Miami Heat plus the points. Now that we are up to 9 points, this becomes an attractive best bet opportunity regardless of who plays and who does not play for the Heat. We saw the St. Louis Blues wins two consecutive games against the Colorado Avalanche after getting hammered in two home games to make the series 3-2. So, why not the Heat, who positively cannot play worse than they have over the past two games. Not all the analytics side with the Celtics. Playoff teams that are coming off a home loss in the conference and NBA Finals are 54-41 SU and 51-42-2 ATS for 55% winning wagers including a 41-53-1 Over-Under record. Since 2017, these revengers are 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS for 70% winning bets including a 21-11 Over-Under record. In the 2021-22 playoffs this series accounts for two of the three previous situations with the Heat winning Game-3 after losing at home in Game-2 and the Celtics winning in Game-4 after losing in Game-3. The other game saw the Dallas Mavericks defeat the Golden State Warriors in Game-4 after losing at home in Game-3. These three situations have combined for a 3-0 SU and ATS record. Playoff teams, like the Heat, that are coming off a double-digit home loss in the conference and NBA Finals are 15-15 SU and 17-12 ATS for 59% winning bets including a 17-13 Over-Under record spanning the last 20 seasons. I see at least 3-points in value betting on the Heat and somehow, they are going to will their ways to force a Game-7. |
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors 9:00 EDT, May 26, 2022 4% Best Bet on the Golden State Warriors Let’s get right to it. The Warriors won the first three games and lost in Game-4 on the road in this Western Conference best-of-seven finals. Teams, like the Warriors, that have won the first three games to start a conference or NBA finals and failed to get the sweep in their previous game go on to a 15-3 straight-up record and a 13-5 ATS record for 72% winning bets including 9-8-1 Over-Under spanning the last 20 seasons. If installed as a home favorite, they are 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS for 67% winners. The Warriors are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home this postseason, with an average winning margin of 118-103 and have covered the spread by an average of 7.8 PPG. They have never lost Games 4-5 consecutively after taking a 3-0 lead. |
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05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics 8:30 EDT, May 21, 2022 5% MAX Best Bet on the Miami Heat plus the points No. 1 seeds in the NBA playoffs are 51-37 ATS when coming off a home loss, 16-10-1 ATS for 62% winning bets when coming off a home loss and taking to the road for Game-3 of any round. Top seeds are 21-11 ATS for 65.6% winners when coming off a double-digit home loss and 14-5 ATS in the Eastern Conference. No.1 seeds are 12-6-1 ATS for 67% winners when having allowed 47.5% or higher 3-point shooting in their previous game and are priced as the underdog including pick-em and if playing in the Conference Finals or the NBA Finals has gone 9-4-1 ATS for 69.2% winning bets. Teams in the conference finals or finals that are averaging 13 or more made 3-pointers and coming off a game in which they made 17 or more 3-pointers are just 3-11 SU and ATS in the next game and 2-5 ATS for 29% winning bets in favored in that next game. My predictive models are calling for the Heat to score 108 or more points, have more rebounds and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio in Game-3. In past playoff games, teams that have met or exceeded these projections are 304-25 SU and 288-38-3 ATS for 88% winning bets. If these teams are road dogs, they have produced a 40-11 SU and 45-6 ATS for 88% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets over the last five playoff seasons. |
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05-20-22 | Rangers +156 v. Hurricanes | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
NY Rangers vs Carolina Hurricanes 8 EDT, May 20, 2022 4% Best Bet on the NY Rangers on the money line Betting on any team on the money line revenging a loss in which they scored no more than 1 goal and has a win percentage between 60 and 70% of their games in the current season has produced a 193-114 record for 63% winning record over the last five seasons and has made 51 units per unit wagered. If the game occurs in the second half of the season and the playoffs the record has been a 104-50 for 68% winners. Rangers are 27-14 when facing above average offensive teams averaging 29.5 or more shots on goal per game in the second half of this season and playoff games. |
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05-20-22 | Fever +14 v. Sun | Top | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Indiana Fever vs Connecticut Sun 7 EDT, May 20, 2022 4% best bet on the Indiana Fever plus the points Here is a highly profitable betting system that has produced a 92-50 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Bet on road underdogs that have allowed 70 or more points in five consecutive games and is facing an opponent that is coming off a game in which they scored 90 or more points. This system has gone 25-14-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. If our DOG is a double-digit dog, then they have produced a 21-11-1 ATS record for 65.6% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Take the Indiana Fever and the very generous number of points. |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
Memphis vs Golden State 4% Best bet on the Warriors minus the points. Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have won between 60 and 75% of their games, that are facing a foe that has covered the spread in four or five of their last six games and sports a win percentage between 60 and 75% on the season has earned an outstanding 60-26-1 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. Warriors are 17-5-1 ATS evening a road loss this season. Plus, the Warriors have lost 6 of their last 7 ATS. Playoff teams that have lost 6 of their last 7 to the spread and are priced as a home favorite of at least 4.5 points have earned a 40-6 straight-up record and a 29-16-1 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. Playoff teams that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and have 3 series wins exact are a solid 31-15-1 ATS for 67% winners over the last 20 playoff seasons, |
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05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 212.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Boston vs Milwaukee 7:30 PM EDT 4% Bet on the Under In certain situations, the market does speak to the possible best bet for a total play. The Celtics are on the road and they have averaged 112 PPG in their road games this season. The Bucks have averaged 110 PPG in their home games. If the combined score of the road team and home team is greater than or lower than the posted total by 2.5% we have one of the conditions met. Why would the market price a matchup lower than what the teams average in their respecive home or road situation? Well, it points us to the Under because there must be some team circumstances, player injuries, uncertain player availability, and recency bias. The total is 4.5% or 10 points lowr than the combined score of the Celtics average road game and the Bucks average home game. Plus, we need the road team coming off a loss to the current opponent and the home team having seen the OVER win at least 45% of the ome games played in the current season. This matchup has all those conditions and situations met and the Under has earned a 125-79-2 record for 61.3% winning bets over the last 10 regular and playoff seasons. If the game identified is a playoff game and the rtoad team is a dog of 2.5 points and includes Pick-em the Under has gone 9-2 for 82% winners over the last 10 playoff seasons. |
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05-08-22 | Suns -128 v. Mavs | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -128 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks 3:30 PM EST, May 8, 2022 4% Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns on the money line. The Suns suffered a miserable loss by their standards trailing by as many as 18 points in their eventual 9-point loss to the Dallas Mavericks in Game-3. Despite the loss they outrebounded the Mavs 45-36 and are the Association-best 43-3 straight-up record for 93.5% wins during the regular season and playoffs when winning the battle of the boards. They are 30-16 ATS for 65% winning bets in games they won the boards. The Grizzlies were a dominating rebounding team this season having played 68 games in which they got more rebounds than their opponents and produced a 56-12 SU and 53-15 ATS record for 78% winning bets. The Sus are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS following a loss in which they won the boards this season and 21-13 SU and 20-13-1 ATS for 61% winning bets over the last three seasons including playoffs. Chris Paul tied his career-worst in Game-3 with 6 turnovers. For his career, Chris Paul and the teams he has played for are 13-3 SU and 10-5-1 ATS for 67% winning bets following a game in which he committed 6 or more turnovers. The Mavs made 13 3-pointers in Game-3 and have made 139 3-pointers through their first 9 playoff games, which is the third most in NBA playoff history. These previous teams that made 135 or more 3-pointers over their first nine games (All since 2016) had gone just 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS for 27% winners in the following game. Bet the Suns on the money line |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 212.5 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks 3:30 PM EST, May 7, 2022 4% Bet Under the posted total Here is a highly profitable betting system that has produced a 83-51-3 Under record for 62% winning bets over the last five seasons. Bet the Under with home teams that are coming off two consecutive games in which the games played Under the posted total by 20 or more points and with the team having won 60% or more of their games. Plus, in playoffs games and the home team seeded lower than their opponent, the Under has gone 7-3 for 70% winners. Moreover, the Under in regular and playoff seasons with a total of 210 or more points and meeting the criteria above has gone 24-12-2 for 67% winners. The markets pricing the Bucks as 2-point favorites and the total of 213 points implies a Bucks 107.5-105.5 win. My predictive models are projecting that the Bucks and Celtics will both score fewer than 105 points. In past games played in the second half of each of the last three seasons the Bucks have seen the Under go 22-1 for 96% winners when scoring fewer than 105 points. The Celtics have seen the Under go 25-2 for 93% winning bets. |
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05-06-22 | Heat -3 v. 76ers | Top | 79-99 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers 7 EDT, May 6, 2022 5% MAX Best Bet on the Miami Heat minus the points and I like them even at –4.5 points. The 76ers were priced as 8-point road dogs in Game-2 after losing Game-1 as a 7-point road dog. The line opened for this Game-3 matchup with the 76ers favored as single-point favorites and has moved to making the Heat a 3-point road favorite on the news that center Joel Embiid is OUT for this game. This is one of the largest line moves in the playoffs spanning the last 20 seasons and underscores how the betting community has now vastly overpriced the Heat. Being overpriced does not by itself result in an ATS win or loss either, but we are getting paid handsomely to assume the risk and uncertainty with how the 76ers will play. Over the past 20 playoff seasons, and a line difference of 9 or more points between the current game and the previous game, with the team, in this case the 76ers having been and road underdog in the previous game and now priced as a home underdog has seen the road favorite, Heat, perform quite well producing a 110-51 SU record for 68% money line winners and 97-62-2 ATS record for 61% winning bets. If the game is taking place in the Eastern Conference with the dog being a 4-seed or worse, the road favorite has earned a 47-17 SU mark for 74% winning bets and 41-22-2 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last 20 playoff seasons and 16-2 SU and 15-2-1 ATS for 94% winning bets since 2015 playoff season. |
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05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 227.5 | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Golden State vs Memphis 9:30 PM EST, May 3, 2022 4% Best Bet Under the Total Warriors are 43-28-1 Under when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. Grizzlies are versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Betting the UNDER in a game with a total of 220 or more points, is playing their 4th game over the past 10 days and in a game involving two of the playoff contenders or playoff teams sporting win percentages between 60 and 75% on the season has earned an outstanding 75-30-3 Under record good for 71.4% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and a 45-16-3 Under record for 74% winning bets over the last three seasons. If in the playoffs spanning the last three seasons, the UNDER is 23-5-3 for 82% winning bets. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 222 | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors 4% Best Bet OVER the posted total, currently at 220.5 and is valid up to and including 224.5 In Game-1 of an NBA Playoff series from Round two through the Finals the OVER is 20-12 for 63% wins when the home team is playing on just one day of rest and in round two Game-1's, the OVER has earned a 15-7 Over record for 68.2% winning bets. Plus, 9-3 OVER run spanning the last 10 playoff seasons. Grizzlies are on a 10-2 OVER run when having faced a team allowing 108 or fewer points I the second half of this season. Warriors are on a 23-12-1 OVER run in the second half of this season when taking on an opponent. From my predictive models, Warriors are 15-4 Over for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons in regular season and playoff games in which they and their opponents attempted 190 or more field goal attempts. The Grizzlies are 22-6-1 Over for 79% winning bets. The models alspo project that 27 or more 3-pointers will be made by these two teams. In past home games that the Grizzlies and their opponents made 27 or more 3’s and combined for 180 or more FGA, the OVER has gone 43-4-3 for 92% wins and when the Grizzlies have met or exceeded these under same projections, the OVER has gone 52-10-1 for 84% wins. |
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04-30-22 | Mariners v. Marlins UNDER 7 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Seattle vs Miami 5% MAX Bet on the Miami Marlins on the money line The Miami Marlins is hot having won 6 straight games and coming off a sweep of the Washington Nationals. Seattle had been nearly as hot having won four straight games and 7 of the past 8 games until losing the last two games of a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Marlins have tremendous pitching depth, and it has shined during their current 6-game win streak. Tow left-handers will do battle in this matchup with Robbie going for the Mariners and Jesus Luzardo going for the Marlins. In 8 career starts against the Marlins, Ray has amassed a 4-3 record (5-3 team record) with a strong 2.08 ERA and a 1.007 WHIP. Even more impressive is that he has allowed just 5 earned runs over his last six starts. Luzardo is one of the only pitchers on the Marlins roster to be struggling somewhat sporting a 3.77 ERA and a 1.256 WHIP in three starts. However, he is coming off impressive road win over Atlanta in which he completed 5 innings, allowed 1 earned run with 4 walks and 8 strikeouts. I see that solid outing carrying over to this start as well. The Marlins are batting just 0.180 and scoring 2.7 runs per game in 4-games against left-handed pitchers this season. Over the past 3 seasons, the Under has earned a 15-3 record for 83.3% winning bets when the Marlins have faced a left-handed starter and were priced as home dogs. The Marlins is 13-3 Under when facing American League teams allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game in games played over the last two seasons. From my predictive models expect the starters in this matchup to complete 11.33 or more innings of work. Marlins are 35-16 Under for 70% winning bets over the last 15 MLB season and 7-2 Under over the last three seasons. |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 229 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Memphis vs Minnesota 4% 8-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total The following NBA betting system has earned a 31-9 Under record for 78% winning bets over the last 5 NBA seasons. Bet Under with games lined with a total of 220 to 229.5 points in games played in the second half of the season and playoffs, with a team scoring an average of 114 to 118 points, that team is coming off a loss of six or fewer points and is facing a defensive team allowing an average of 110 to 114 points per game. Memphis is 14-4-1 Under when facing an opponent that is averaging 15 or fewer forced turnovers per game in games played over the last two seasons. From my predictive models, both teams are projected to shot 45% or lower. The Under has earned an outstanding 64-12-5 record for 84% winning bets over the last five seasons in games in which they and their opponent shot no better than 45% from the field. |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 210.5 | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Dallas vs Utah 4% Best bet UNDER the posted total Betting the Under with a total of 205 or more points in a game involving a team that went Under the total by 25 or more points in their previous game and both teams have wo a minimum of 55% of their games on the season has earned a solid 31-15-4 Under record good for 67.4% winning bets over the last 10 NBA playoff seasons. Plus, over the past three NBA playoff seasons, this system has earned a highly profitable 17-7-4 Under record for 71% winning bets. |
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04-28-22 | Suns -130 v. Pelicans | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Phoenix vs New Orleans 4% best bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points. No. 1 seeds, as are the Suns, playing in Game-6 of an NBA playoff series are 17-8 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last 10 playoff seasons. If favored, these No. Seeds have gone 9-4 ATS for 69.2% winning bets over the the last 10 playoff seasons and is a road favorite 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets. |
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04-28-22 | 76ers -120 v. Raptors | 132-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors 4% bet on the 76ers using the money line, currently –125 and like this bet a lot up to and including –135. Playoff teams that won the first three games of a 7-game series, then lost two straight game are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS for 70% winners in Game-6 priced as a road favorite. Betting on teams revenging a SU loss as a home favorite of seven or more points in the regular season and playoffs has earned a highly profitable 40-12- ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the last five seasons. Bet on any team that is coming off two upset losses installed as favorites in the playoffs has earned a 36-20-2 ATS record good for 64.3% winning bets over the last 10 playoff seasons. NBA 4% Best Bet |
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04-27-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 217.5 | Top | 100-116 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
Chicago vs Milwaukee Game-5 5% Best Bet Over the posted total. This betting algorithm has produced a 45-18 record for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on teams that led by 15 or more points at the half of their previous game, the game involved has a total of at least 200 points, and the previous opponent scored 43 or fewer points in the first half of that previous game. 56% of these games played Over the posted total by a minimum of 7 points. Here are a few more situational angles supporting the Over bet. Bucks are 12-2-1 Over following two consecutive double-digit wins over divisional opponents and 44-22 Over following two consecutive wins in games played over the last two seasons. Bucks head coach Budenholzer is 49-29-1 Over following two double-digit wins. From my predictive models we are expecting the Bucks to shoot at least 48% from the field and to score at least 115 points. In past games played over the last five seasons, the Bucks are 123-30-8 for 80.4% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. |
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04-26-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 232 | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Minnesota vs Memphis 4% OVER the posted total Memphis is 31-22 UNDER when taking on an opponent that is a good passing team averaging 23 or more assists per game this season. Memphis is 19-8-1 Under when facing teams that are forcing 15 or fewer turnovers per game in games played over the last two seasons. From my predictive models we are expecting Minnesota to score 108 or fewer points and shoot less than 45% from the field. In past games in which the Wolves met or underperformed these performance measures has seen the UNDER go 42-12 for 78% winning bets over the last three seasons and when the total has been 230 or more points, the Under has earned a 15-4 record for 79% winning bets. |
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04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets -3 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Boston vs Brooklyn 4% bet on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points. Betting on teams that are in a game lined between a 3.5 points dog and a 3.5-point favorite and facing an opponent that has outscored their opponents by 6 or more points per game on the season and with that opponent having played three consecutive games in which 220 or more points were scored in each one has gone 46-15 ATS for 75.4% winning bets and 44-17 SU for 72% wins over the last five seasons. If this game is taking place in the playoffs our team has gone 9-4 ATS for 69.2% ATS winners over the last 10 playoff seasons. From my predictive models, we are looking for the Nets to score 115 or more points and score at least 20 fast break points in this game. The Nets are 13-2 SU for 87% wins and 11-3-1 ATS for 79% winning bets in games where they met or exceeded that pair of performance measures. |
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04-22-22 | Suns -2 v. Pelicans | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Suns vs Pelicans 4% Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points and consider the money line as an option if it is priced at –125 or better. The Suns have won 26 more games than the Pelicans on the season and including this series. NBA Playoff games in a matchup where the Dog is coming off an upset win and with the opponent having won 25 or more games on the season has seen the DOG go 2-11 ATS for 15% winning bets. No. 1-seeds that are coming off a loss in game they were favored are 35-26-2 ATS for 57.4% winners dating back to the 2003 season. Plus, if the game is in the first round, they are 12-7 ATS for 63% winners. Favorites in the NBA playoffs that are coming off a loss priced as a 7 or greater favorite have earned a 72-15 SU record and a 55-33-1 ATS mark good for 62% winning bets dating back to the 2003 season and 22-5 SU and 19-8 ATS for 70.4% winning bets over the last five playoff seasons. Plus, if our revengeful-minded team is favored by no more than 2.5 points have earned an 8-4 ATS mark for 67% winning bets. Bet the Suns |
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04-18-22 | Raptors v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
Toronto vs Philadelphia 7:30 PM EST, April 18, 2022 4% best bet on the 76ers minus the points I am certainly in the camp that does not see the Raptors responding to the dominating loss they endured to the 76ers in Game-1. Maxey scored 38 points and will more than likley not reach even 28 tonight, but Embiid had 15 boards and a very quiet performance and now I believe it will be his turn to take advantage of the matchup opportunities he will enjoy. The media has you thinking that Harden is becoming a problem on the court. Nothing falser could ever be stated. When he is the conductor of the offense, the 76ers ball movement and distribution is near perfection and he had a huge game-1 distributing the ball to the correct player at the correct time and his experience are invaluable to say the least. Betting on 3.5 to 9.5 point favorites in the month of April that have won three or more consecutive home games has earned an outstanding 49-18 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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04-17-22 | Pelicans v. Suns -10 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
New Orleans vs Phoenix Suns 5% Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points In the playoffs in game 1 or 2 betting on the No.1 seed priced as a double-digit favorite has produced a 60-6 straight-up record and 37-28-1 ATS mark good for 57% winning bets. Plus, if these No.1 seed favorite is priced between 8.8 and 11.5 points, they have produced an 8-1 ATS record in game 1. The Suns are far too good to get overconfident and full of themselves and underestimate a surging Pelicans team. Must admire New Orleans’ resilience under HC Willie Green, as the Pelicans have been scrapping for weeks to get to the playoffs. McCollum’s presence certainly made a difference when the Pels came to Phoenix and inflicted a 117-102 defeat on the Suns on Feb. 25 for 1 of those 9 Footprint losses. McCollum outscored Booker 32-30 and made 11 of 18 shots and the Pelicans destroyed the Suns on the boards, posting a 53-37 rebounding edge with Valanciunas grabbing 17 of those boards. What is missing is the fact that Chris Paul did not play in that game that truly had little meaning for the Suns, who had already moved far ahead in the standings. Game-1 of the first round of the playoffs playing at a packed and raucous house will be a completely different environment for the Pelicans and one that I think will be more than just intimidating. OK. Playoff favorites that have been defeated by the spread by a combined total of 47 or more points over their last 7 games (can extend back into the regular season) has produced a 15-2 SU record and 13-4 ATS mark for 77% winning playoffs bets over the last five seasons. Plus, 9-0 ATS if the favorite is playing the current game with more rest than the current opponent. |
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04-16-22 | Jazz -4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 99-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks 1:00 EST, April 16, 2022 4% best bet on the Utah Jazz minus the points Supporting this bet on the Jazz is the following situational betting system that has earned a highly profitable 29-16 ATS record good for 64.4% winning bets over the last five playoff seasons. Bet on road favorites that made more than field goals in their previous game then what they averaged for the regular season. That is all there is to it. Luka is out and may not even be available for Monday’s Game-2 and Dallas is a team that is solely dependent on his super star caliber of play. One LIVE betting strategy that may happen in this game would allow for an excellent price on the Jazz during the first half of action. I always expect a home team just like Cleveland last night, to come out the gates flying high. Dallas will certainly have the home crowd behind them, and it is possible they get out to a 10-point lead. So, bet 50% of your 4% betting amount pre-flop and then look for the fast start by Dallas to add the other 50% amount at –1 or pick-em and try not to pay more than –115 vig. Be patient and allow the market to come to you and not force the bet and pay too much vig. LIVE odds are highly volatile, and they will move often enough, especially during a time out situation, allowig you to get the price YOU WANT. |
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04-15-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
New Orleans vs LA Clippers 4% Best Bet on the Pelicans as a –1 point favorite and is good to go up to and including 3.5 points. Clippers are just 5-17-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in the past five days this season. Betting on road favorites (now that the Pelicans have become the favorite) after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games has earned an outstanding 24-10 mark over the last three seasons and 40-16-1 ATS record over the last five seasons for 71% wining bets. |
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04-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Denver vs Memphis 9:00 PM EST, April 7, 2022 4% Best Bet on the Denver Nuggets minus the points Betting on teams that are facing a strong opponent that is outscoring their opponents by 6 or more PPG on the season, in a game lined between the 3’s, and with the opponent coming off three consecutive games in which 220 or more points were scored in each one has earned a 44-17 ATS record for 72.1% winning bets over the last four seasons. Memphis (55-24) is locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference and won't know who it will face in the first round until the play-in tournament gets started. The fact that it possibly could be the Nuggets is a little surprising. Denver (47-33) had a chance to clinch at least the No. 6 seed with a home win over San Antonio on Tuesday night but was blown out by the Spurs. The Nuggets need a win in one of their last two games to avoid the play-in tournament, and they can end the drama when they host the Grizzlies on Thursday night. |
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04-07-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 220.5 | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs Toronto 4% bet on the UNDER The Raptors defeated the Atlanta Hawks 118-108 Tuesday, which secured a playoff berth and avoids the dreaded Play-In Tournament. The victory was the 12th of their last 15 games for the Raptors, who have won two of the first three meetings against the 76ers this season. However, the 76ers are in a log jam for the 2-seed among three other teams and need this win far more than the Raptors. If the season had ended yesterday, the 76ers would be the 4-seed and would hot the 5-seed Toronto Raptors in the first round of the playoffs. The 76ers have a 3-game lead over the Raptors and have the cellar dwelling Pacers and Pistons up next to conclude the regular season. The Boston Celtics is 50-30 for the season and clinging to a ½ game lead over the Milwaukee Bucks and 76ers, both with 49-30 records. So, I fully expect this game to have a defensive playoff-type atmosphere tonight. The line opened at 215.5 points and has steamed its’ wat to a current price of 220 points with a few rogue 221 numbers appearing. I like waiting till after noon EST to see where this line may top out, which I believe will be at the 221.5 points area. My recommendation is to bet 50% of your normal 4% best amount at 221.5 points and then look to add 25% more at 222.5 points and the remaining 25% at 223.5 points. 76ers are 23-13 Under when facing a team that is allowing an average of 108 PPG in games played this season. The Raptors are 22-12-1 Under when facing a great passing team, like the 76ers, that are averaging 23 or more assists per game in the second half (after game number 41) of this season. |
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04-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 121-127 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Boston vs Milwaukee 7:30 EST, April 7, 2022 4% bet on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a matchup of excellent teams sporting win percentages between 60 and 75% on the season and with the visitor having covered the spread in four or five of their last six games has earned an outstanding 55-25 ATS result good for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. Celtics are just 1-10 ATS following two consecutive ATS wins priced as a favorite in games played over the last two seasons. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
UNC vs Kansas 4% Best Bet on North Carolina plus the points and a 1% bet on the money line. I like North Carolia to be leading at the half and to win the game at +700 at betMGM What Villanova lacked in length to defend Kansas’ McCormack, UNC has more than enough length, and I see them minimizing McCormack throughout the entire game. Then Agbaji, the stud Kansas leader is going to have to be far more involved and creative and I see the UNC starters and depth off the bench getting that minimized as well. Simply said, I see UNC as the better team and the fact that they are the underdog again, will allow them to play lose and free and at full strength. I know that the last four and 11 of the last 16 Champions have been 1-seeds, but this UNC team is vastly different than any other non-1-seed team, especially seeds greater than 4, in Tournament history. Supporting the upset, UNC is 7-1 against the money line (making +6.7 Units per Unit wagered) when they make 31% to 37% of their three-point shot attempts in a game this season, 11-2 against the money line (+10.8 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last two seasons, and 8-2 against the money line (+11.5 Units) in games where both teams score 75 or more points this season. Thank you to every one of you that supported me and long hours of research to provide you the absolute best sports betting research possible. Every season I feel a tremendous need to give thanks to and be 100% grateful for every one of you. Next Sports up is MLB, so make certain you get the 75% discounted season-long package on my profile page this week. |
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03-30-22 | Heat +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Miami vs Boston 7:40 ET, March 30, 2022 5% MAX Bet (10-UNITS) on the Miami Heat plus the points. If Miami remains the underdog in this matchup, this 5% MAX Bet (10-Units) is good to go. In the Eastern Conference there are four teams, Miami, Philadelphia, Boston, and Milwaukee, that are within 1.5-games of each other for the race to the top-seed for the playoffs. Miami and Boston square off in this matchup with Miami the current No.1 seed and Boston the 3-seed in the playoff standings. Milwaukee is in the 2-seed position and would take on the winner of the 7-seed vs 8-seed Play-In Tournament matchup between the Cavaliers and the Nets. The winner of that matchup becomes the 7-seed in the playoff bracket and would face the 2-seed, while the loser of that game would face the winner of the 9 vs 10-seed matchup, which is currently Charlotte vs Atlanta. My predictive models point to Miami in this matchup and a sprinkle of no more than 0.75% (0.75 Units) on the money line. Both Celtics stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will be on the court tonight. So, we are looking for the Heat to score 111 points, have 13 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the Heat met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a 20-3 SU, 22-1 ATS record for 96% winning bets. They are also 14-0 ATS over the last 10 seasons when installed as a road dog of not more than five points, scoring 111 or more points with 13 or fewer turnovers. The following betting system has earned a 95-43-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 1995, 24-9 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. If the game is taking place after game number 41, the record is 65-30-1 ATS for 68.4% winning bets since 1995, and 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. Among the 25 seasons, there have been 22 seasons that this betting algorithm has made profits. The 3 losing seasons were 1-game under 0.500 in two of those season and 2-games under 0.500 ATS in the third. The requirements for this betting system/algorithm is to be on any team in a matchup of two teams that have won 60% to 75% of their games in the current seasons and with the team we are betting against, Boston, coming off a straight-up loss, but covered the spread |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State OVER 137 | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Southern Utah vs Fresno State The Basketball Classic Semifinals 4% bet OVER the posted total FSU head coach Hutson is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games, 35-20-1 ATS following a home game, and 16-6-1 ATS following two consecutive home games. From my predictive models, we learn that FSU is 8-0-1 Over when scoring 70 or more points and making at least 12 free throws in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State -7 | Top | 48-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Southern Utah vs Fresno State The Basketball Classic Semifinals 4% bet OVER the posted total FSU head coach Hutson is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games, 35-20-1 ATS following a home game, and 16-6-1 ATS following two consecutive home games. From my predictive models, we learn that FSU is 8-0-1 Over when scoring 70 or more points and making at least 12 free throws in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's v. North Carolina -8.5 | Top | 49-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
St. Peters vs North Carolina 4% best bet on North Carolina minus the points The St. Peters Peacocks have become the first 15-seed to ever make the Elite-8 Round and will most assuredly be the topic of a documentary movie down the road – and a well-deserved one. However, my models, which do not have any pulse rate or the heart that the Peacocks team has put on display and is arguably the best example of why we love March Madness, indicate that their run is going to end here against no-less than an 8-seed North Carolia Tarheels team. The media, including Lunardi, mocked the ACC Conference and what they missed in a big way was the fact that the top teams in that loop were not having off years, because NC State, Georgia Tech, and other were having of years. If there is one huge take-away from this post season is to be careful when assigning a ‘off season’ discount to any of the Major-6 Conferences. I even heard. Rumor that Loyola-Chicago's biggest fan Sister jean had entered the transfer portal to join St. Peters. (Ha Ha) Betting on favorites after beating the spread by 45 or more points in total spanning their last seven games and now facing an opponent that has beat the number by a total of 55 or more points over their last 10 games has earned a highly profitable 49-16-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 14-1 ATS for 93.3% winning bets over the last three seasons. UNC is 10-2 ATS in the second half of each of the last three seasons when taking on winning record foe and 9-1 ATS when taking on a foe that is outscoring their opponents by at least 4 or more points per game in games played over the last two season. What UNC has that Purdue did not is the perimeter threat from many players on the floor. Purdue failed to penetrate the crowded paint are and then move the move the ball swiftly to the perimeter for wide-open shots. When they did, the shots were not made. I think UNC will exploit this from start to finish and force St. Peters to stop packing the paint area and spread them out across the court to defend perimeter shooters. UNC will force St. Peters to expend ton of energy trying to cover the side-to-side ball movement. Eventually, when they wear down and are reduced to a defender running at an open shooter, that shooter will fake the shot and drive to the rim. Nothing at all at the greatest and accomplishments of St. Peters, but this is North Carolina. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech -1 v. Duke | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
Texas Tech vs Duke 4% Best bet on Texas Tech minus the single point, if this line moves to –1.5 to –2.5, then bet this game using the money line. When I write just a few of incredible accomplishments that Coach K has achieved, it becomes even more incredible just seeing it in black and white – if that makes any sense. The Duke basketball program is in the Sweet 16 for the 28th time and Coach-K is looking for his 100th NCAA Tournament victory. He has won a record 1,200 overall games in 47 seasons (42 at Duke) as he heads down the home stretch of his career. How coincidental are these achievements that are at exactly century and multi-century marks. He is also two victories away from reaching his 13th Final Four. I do remember that the number 13 has some scary connotations. This is a matchup that I see focused on ball handling where Duke is ranked 2nd in the nation sporting a 1.644 assist to turnover ratio against a Texas Tech defense that ranks 9th with a 0.690 defensive assist to turnover ratio. Then on the other side of the court, we have a Texas Tech offense that ranks 166th with a 1.006 assist to turnover ratio going up against a conservative Duke defense ranking 315th with a poor 1.249 defensive assist to turnover ratio. Plus, Tech ranks 6th in scoring defense allowing 60.2 points per game. Duke will look to increase the pace of play while Tech will look to get this game in the mud and to be as physical as the referees will permit. So, teams in the Sweet-16, Elite-8, and Final-4, are the favorite, and have a defense allowing 60 to 65 points per game on the season have gone on to a 45-26-2 ATS record good for 63.4% winning bets over the last 15 NCAA Tournaments. Using this simple betting system, you would have made profits in each of the past 7 events, and this is the first one of this event. |
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03-24-22 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 135.5 | Top | 55-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Michigan vs Villanova 7:29 PM EST, March 23, 2022 4% best bet Under the posted total The last time these two programs met in San Antonio on the basketball court was in the 2016 NCAA Championship game won by Villanova. The Wildcats look to be poised for another Championship run here in San Antonio and credit goes to head coach Jay Wright for having the courage to load up the front end of the season with top-rated superior teams. That ‘seasoning’ is now going to pay off for the remainder of their Tournament run starting tonight. When away from Ann Arbor, Michigan is 7-0 Under after two consecutive games attempting 10 or fewer shots than the opponent and 31-15 Under following two consecutive games where the opponent was called for five or more fouls than they were called for. Villanova is on a 7-1 Under run when playing in a neutral court settling and installed as the favorite. For his entire career at Villanova, Jay Wright is 45-27-2 Under when facing a marginal winning team sporting a win percentage not higher than 60%, 32-20-3 Under when playing against a winning record team with a win percentage not higher in than 60% in the second half of each season (after game number 15) From my predictive models, we are expecting to see a well-played matchup within a slower than average pace of play. The spread and total are telling us that Villanova will win 70.25-64.75 or 70-65. They are also projected to make no higher than 37% from beyond the arc OR not make more than 11 3-pointers in total and not score more than 75 points. In past games when not playing at home, the Wildcats have gone 5-14-2 Over-Under for 74% wining bets when not scoring more than 75 points and not making more than 11 3-pointers in games played since 2019. Michigan is 5-10 Over-Under for 67% winning Under bets in games where they did not make more than 6 3-pointers and did not score more than 70 points. |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Arkansas vs Gonzaga 7:09 PM EST, Thursday, March 24, 2022 Playing the LIVE in-game betting lines and taking advantage of the scoring volatility that this game is likely to have through the 40 minutes of play gives rise to the following strategy that I have used hundreds of times. Consider betting Arkansas pre-flop (before the tip) getting the +9.5 points for a 50% amount of your 4% betting amount (Or a 2% betting amount), the look to add 25% more (1% best bet) at Arkansas +11.5 and +14.5 points during the first half only. This is one of the best NCAA Basketball money line betting systems and has earned a 32-21 straight-up record for 60% winning bets over the last five seasons and has made the $1,000 bettor a profit of $40,500 by averaging a whopping +190.3 money line wager. Bet on a solid defensive team allowing 40 to 42.5% shooting on the season and is now facing a team that has posted four consecutive games making at least 50% of their shots and is also making 47.5% of their shots on the season. So, I like to call this money line betting system the “Mother of all Regression Betting Systems”. Arkansas is 13-2 straight-up when facing a team that is making at least 45% of their shots on the season in each of the last two seasons and has made the $1,000 bettor a profit of $13,700 in this role. Arkansas is 8-2-1 ATS when facing teams that attempt an average of at least 21 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS following back-to-back games forcing just eight or fewer turnovers in each of the two games. Arkansas is 12-3-1 ATS after winning two of their last three games and a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 50 or fewer points spanning the last three seasons. |
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03-22-22 | Clippers +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 115-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Clippers vs Denver 10:00 PM EST, March 22, 2022 4% Best Bet on the Clippers plus the points Clippers are solid 3-point shooting team that is making 36% of those long-range shots on the season. The Nuggets are just 1-9 ATS when facing a team that ids making at least 36% of their 3-pointers in games played this season. From my predictive models, we are looking for the Clippers to score at least 114 points and have 12 or fewer turnovers. When the Clippers have met or exceeded these performance measures in road games they have gone to earn a 18-6 SU record, 18-7 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the last three seasons. |
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03-22-22 | Bulls +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-126 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Bulls vs Bucks 8:00 PM EST, March 22, 2022 4% best bet on the Bulls plus the points, currently at +6 points and is a valid bet down to and including 4.5 points. The Bulls are coming off a significant win over the Eastern Conference rivals Toronto Raptors I do see the Bulls carrying the positive momentum over to this game against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are just 1-11 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage between 50.1 and 60% this season (at least one-game over 0.500) and just 10-20 ATS when playing against a team that is at least one-game over 0.500 this season. Here is a tremendous money line betting system that has earned a 51-30 straight-up record for 63% winning bets and has made the $1,000 bettor a $43,000 profit by averaging a +145-underdog bet. Bet on home teams using the money line in a matchup of teams that are allowing 108 to 114 points per game on the season and playing against the team that is one that allowed 130 or more points in their previous game. If both teams allowed 130 or more points in their previous game, then this system is void. Milwaukee was dominated by the Minnesota Timberwolves 139-119 in their previous game Saturday. If the game from the algorithm above is in the second half of the regular season (after game number 41) it has done even better sporting a 37-15 straight-up record for 70% winning bets averaging a +160-money line wager and has made the $1,000 bettor a $42K profit. Just this season, it has achieved a 7-6 SU result, but has made $8K in profits for the 1K bettor. |
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03-22-22 | Hawks -2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Atlanta vs NY Knicks 7:30 PM EST, March 22, 2022 4% bet on the Atlanta using the first half betting line 0.5% Trae Young Over points + assists You can bet that the Knicks faithful will out to boo Trae Young at every opportunity tonight at Madison Square Garden as the Hawks look to avoid a season4-0 sweep to the Knicks. He took a bow at center court last Spring when he and the Hawks eliminated the Knicks from the playoffs and the fans have not forgotten this fact. Young is at times a polarizing figure in the NBA and he does respond well to haters when playing on their court. Betting the first half line with a road team that is allowing an average of 108 to 114.5 points per game on the season and facing a host that is averaging just 104 to 108 points per game on the season and is coming off a double-digit loss has earned a solid 120-61 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the last 25 NBA seasons and most of it coming recently due to the increase in scoring over the past 25 years with a 66-31 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last three season. |
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03-19-22 | Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 245 | Top | 119-138 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Milwaukee vs Minnesota 5:10 ET 4% bet UNDER the posted total, currently at 244.5 points after opening at 242.5 points. I like this bet at 244.5 points and higher. Bucks are 7-0 Under when facing teams who attempt 39 or more 3-point shots per game on the season, 8-0 Under when facing teams who make 14 or more 3-point shots per game on the season, 14-2 Under in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Here is an awesome NBA Betting algorithm that has produced a 55-17 Under record good for 76% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet Under Play Under with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 and with a well-rested team, Milwaukee, playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days, and is an excellent team winning 60% to 75% of their games playing a team with a winning record. It has produced a 24-6 record good for 80% winning bets over the last three seasons and 46-14 Under record good for 77% winning bets over the last five seasons. |
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03-18-22 | Delaware v. Villanova UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-80 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
Delaware vs Villanova 2:45 PM EST, March 18, 2022 The total for this game is 133.5 points and has not moved from that opening price. One live in-game strategy worth considering and one that I will look to execute is to bet 50% of your 4% betting amount pre-flop and then hope to see a faster than expected pace at the start of the game. If that happens look to add the remaining 50% at 139.5 points during the first half only. To bet in-game in the second half has a significantly reduced ROI simply because there is less time to be correct. The worst case is that 139.5 is not made available during the first half of play which implies that we are correct on the 4% Under bet looking good to cover. You can also bet 80% pre flop and look to add 20% at 139.5 points. Send me a Direct Message on Twitter @JohnRyanSports1 if you have any questions. Betting the Under in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in a matchup of teams that have won 60 to 80% of their games on the season has earned a 67-29-1 Under record good for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. Delaware is 8-2 Under when playing against a team with a win percentage between 60 and 80% this season. Nova is 6-0 Under as a favorite on a neutral court this season and 13-4 Under coming off a win of six or fewer points in games played over the last three seasons. |
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03-18-22 | Montana State +15 v. Texas Tech | Top | 62-97 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
Montana State vs Texas Tech 1:45 PM EST, March 18, 2022 4% bet on the Montana State Bobcats plus the points. The line opened making the Bobcats a 15-point underdog and has remained at this level amid balanced betting action. My predictive models point to the fact that the betting community is paying too much (almost like a tax) for the privilege of betting the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Bobcats won the Big Sky Tournament earning their ticket as a 14 seed. Texas Tech reached the Big 12 tournament final, where it fell to Kansas 74-65. Last season, the Bobcats lost in the conference final, and it has turned out to be a blessing. Third-year head coach Danny Sprinkle had three seniors form that squad exercise their COVID option for a fifth season. As expected, the trio are the leaders of the Bobcats. Xavier Bishop tops Montana State in scoring (13.9 points per game) and assists (4.3). Jubrile Belo is averaging 13.0 points per game and tops the team in rebounds averaging 6.8 per game, and blocks averaging 1.8 per game. Abdul Mohamed contributes 7.8 points per game and 6.6 boards per game. The Bobcats are 11-2 ATS when facing solid rebounding teams averaging four or more rebounds per game than their opponents in games played over the last three seasons. Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in road games when facing teams averaging 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in road or neutral settings after playing a game as a favorite, 9-2 ATS in road or neutral settings coming off two or more consecutive wins, and 10-2 ATS in all tournaments games over the last three seasons. |
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03-18-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Ohio State +1 | Top | 41-54 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
Loyola vs Ohio State 12:15 PM EST, March 18, 2022 4% best bet on the Ohio State Buckeyes The seventh-seeded Buckeyes (19-11) and 10th-seeded Ramblers (25-7) will meet in Pittsburgh at the PPG Paints Arena on Friday in a first-round game set to tip-off at 12:15 PM EST. Loyola is on a roll winner of three straight to win their second consecutive Missouri Valley Conference Title and are making their third appearance of the past five seasons in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is not on a roll and were upset by a surging Penn State squad in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament. Last year while on the LIVE Manny’s Irish Pub Show, Rob Veno kept me informed of the last 1:50 of last year’s Ohio State vs Orla Roberts game. I got Oral Roberts at +950 on the money line trailing by just two points with 1:50 left and knowing that they were the best free throw shooting team in the nation. I sometimes cannot watch a game feeling I may jinx and hope of winning such a bet, so Rob Veno of WagerTalk kept me apprised during our show and man alive that was some great fun I will never forget. Ohio State was a 2-seed and there was immense pressure on them to win. However, this season they are not under the media spotlight and come into this game as one of the more underrated teams in the event. An early loss in the Big Ten tourney might be a blessing for the the Buckeyes, who had to make up two games late in the season and played seven games in 16 days to end the regular season March 6. Then followed by the loss to Penn State four days later. Everyone loves Loyola and their great story and I do as well, but I cannot bet that way as a pro bettor. The value here is certainly with Ohio State and I believe they come away with the win. OSU is 9-1 ATS in road games when facing solid shooting teams that are making 45% or more of their shots in the second half, after game number 15, of each of the past two seasons. They are 8-0 ATS in the second half of each of the past two seasons when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game. Loyola is just 10-23 ATS in the second half of each of the past three seasons when facing a team that is averaging 21 or more 4-points hot attempts. |
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03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers UNDER 132 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Notre Dame vs Rutgers 9:10 PM EST, March 16, 2022 4% Best Bet Under the posted total Notre Dame and Rutgers will be the participants in the last “Play-In” game prior to the March Madness Insanity begins in earnest Thursday. I thought Rutgers had earned a spot in the bracket by virtue of how well they did play down the stretch. This reflects that the committee only looks at quality of wins and the full-season body of work to give a team a thumbs up or thumbs down vote. I’d like to see more weighting for those teams that played hot down the stretch that would then bump out the teams that finished the regular season in a stumbling manner. The former Big East Conference rivals ended up earning two of the last four at-large bids into the 2022 field and will play each other in a First Four game Wednesday night at Dayton, Ohio. The winner will earn a No. 11 seed and move on to play sixth-seeded Alabama on Friday. This Under bet is backed by a simple to use betting system that has earned a 200-276 Over-Under record good for 58% winning Under bets spanning the last 15 seasons and is on a 19-42 Over-Under record for 69% winning Under bets spanning the last two seasons. The requirements are to bet the Under in games played in March with a team that allowed 85 or more points in their previous game. Plus, a subset that filters out only the games played with a total between 130 and 135 points that has earned a 17-33 Over-Under record good for 67% winning Under bets over the last 15 seasons. |
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03-16-22 | Blazers v. Knicks -12 | Top | 98-128 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Portland vs NY Knicks 7:30 ET 4% best bet on the NY Knicks minus the points Portland is 9-23 ATS when facing teams allowing 108 or fewer points per game this season. NY is 23-11-1 ATS in home games which playing a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. Portland is 3-12-1 ATS when playing their sixth game in the past 2 weeks (14 days). Knicks are 12-2 ATS after covering the spread in four or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. |
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03-13-22 | Iowa v. Purdue UNDER 152 | Top | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
Iowa vs Purdue 3:30 PM EST, March 13, 2022 4% bet on the UNDER in this Big Ten Championship matchup. Iowa’s offense was quite good at the beginning of the season, but now is monumentally better right now than the first time these two teams met. They play fast ranking 5th nationally averaging 64.6 shots per game and the nation’s best ball handling team sporting 1.74 assists to turnover ratio. However, now the betting total has been overpriced by the betting community and both teams are prone to scoring below their average score per game. Betting the Under in a game being played on a neutral court, with a total between 150 and 159.5 points, after the 15th game of the regular season including Tournament action, and two teams that are allowing 42.5% to 45% shooting on the season has earned an insanely profitable 32-4 Under record good for 89% winning bets over the last five seasons. For March Madness moving forward, totals in the month of March ranging between 150 and 159.5 points, in games being played on a neutral site have gone 176-128-6 Under for 58% winners since 2006. In April games, the Under is 5-1. |
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03-12-22 | Bucks v. Warriors UNDER 236.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Milwaukee vs Golden State 10-Unit “Total of the Year” UNDER the posted total. This line opened at 231.5 points and has moved up to 234.5 points making this a terrific betting opportunity for all of us. I emphasize betting opportunity, not a LOCK, or guaranteed to win nonsense. These plays hit at 65% to 70% over the course of a calendar year in All Sports and that means that they lose 30 to 35% of the time. So, as I always conclude my shows and I sincerely mean this, “bet with your head and not over it”, is mandatory. Stay disciplined and allow the wins to grind your building profits over the course of the season and not just one single day. Bucks are 24-6-1 Under when playing against a playoff-type team that is winning more than 60% of their games spanning the last two seasons. Betting the Under in games lined at 230 or more points, with a team coming off a road win and a matchup in which both teams have won 60% to 75% of their games in the current season has produced a 27-3 Under record for 85% winning bets and is a perfect 15-0 Under record spanning the last three seasons. 24 of the games bet over the last five seasons has gone Under the total by at least seven points. |
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03-08-22 | Canisius +3.5 v. Fairfield | Top | 50-72 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Canisius vs Fairfield 4% best bet on Canisuis This matchup involves a first-round game in the Metro Atlantic Tournament being held at the Boardwalk in Atlantic City, NJ. Canisius is 6-0 ATS when facing teams who are attempting an average of 21 or more three-point shots per game on the season and after the 15th game of the regular season. Fairfield is 3-13 ATS After a combined score of 115 or fewer points were scored. In games played over the last three seasons. They are also 3-15 ATS after A game in which they made 20% or worse, of their three point shot attempts in games played over the last three seasons. Take Canisius as a 4% Best Bet |