|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-20-19||Nationals v. Pirates +149||Top||1-4||Win||149||13 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Pirates +149
I like the value here with Pittsburgh as a big home dog against the Nationals. Washington is coming off a ridiculous 3-game stretch where they scored 14, 16 and 13 runs, respectably. Pirates have scored a total of 1 run in their last 3. Needless to say the line here is inflated on the Nationals.
However, Washington is a mere 1-9 over the last 3 seasons after a 3-game stretch where they hit .350 or better as a team. Pirates will also have a solid starter going in Chris Archer, who has a strong 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 2.50 ERA in 3 career starts against the Nationals.
Strong system here backing Pittsburgh. NL home underdogs of +125 or more that are giving up 5.5 or more runs/game and come in having scored 4 or fewer runs in 5 straight games. Take Pittsburgh!
|08-19-19||Mariners v. Rays -183||9-3||Loss||-183||12 h 10 m||Show|
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Rays -183
I got no problem laying the big juice with Tampa Bay at home in Monday's series opener against the Mariners. Don't be fooled by Seattle's 4-2 record in their last 2 series, as those came against bottom feeders Detroit and Toronto.
Hard to see the Mariners keeping it close with the struggling Marco Gonzales on the mound. While he only gave up 3 runs in his last start, he surrendered a staggering 11 hits and has now allowed 26 hits in 17 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts. A stretch in which he's posted an ugly 4.67 ERA and 1.789 WHIP.
Brendan McKay will go for Tampa Bay and he's making his 8th start. In his first seven he's not pitched deep in games, but has also allowed more than 3 runs just once. Rays are 64-29 in their last 39 vs a team with a losing record. Mariners are 14-45 in their last 59 vs a team with winning record and 7-23 in their last 30 on the road vs a team with a winning record. Take Tampa Bay!
|08-19-19||Padres v. Reds -157||Top||3-2||Loss||-157||13 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Reds -157
Easy play on Cincinnati at home in Monday's series opener against the Padres. Reds have really been playing well the last month or so. While they come in having lost 6 of their last 8, the losses in this stretch came against the Cubs, Nationals and Cardinals, who at the moment are all playoff teams.
For me this is a much big mismatch in starting pitching. I give a huge edge here to Reds starter Trevor Bauer against the likes of the Padres Eric Lauer. In 11 road starts this year, Lauer has posted an awful 6.20 ERA and 1.453 WHIP. Padres have lost 4 of his last 5 road starts vs a team with a losing record.
Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 at home vs a team with a losing record and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 when coming off a loss. Padres are 3-10 in their last 13 off a win and the same 3-10 in their last 13 series openers. Take Cincinnati!
|08-18-19||Mets v. Royals +162||Top||11-5||Loss||-100||8 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals +162
I absolutely love the value here with Kansas City as a big home dog against the Mets. New York was able to pull out a 4-1 win behind deGrom on Saturday, but it wasn't easy. I think the Mets are way overvalued. Sure they played some great baseball, but a lot of that success came against bad teams.
No way should New York be this big of a road favorite with Zach Wheeler on the mound. Wheeler is just 4-5 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 12 road starts. In his last outing he was torched for 5 runs on 12 hits in 5 innings at Atlanta.
KC will turn to Glenn Sparkman and he's been unbelievable at Kauffman Stadium. Sparkman has a 2.54 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 7 home starts. Take Kansas City!
|08-18-19||Cardinals -149 v. Reds||5-4||Win||100||7 h 34 m||Show|
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Cardinals -149
St Louis should have no problem securing a victory on the road against the Reds in Sunday's series finale between these two NL Central rivals. Cincinnati was able to win on Saturday, but they had a decent edge on the mound in that one.
This time it's St Louis with the starting pitching advantage. Cardinals will turn to Jack Flaherty, who has a strong 3.52 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 24 starts. Those numbers are great, but what I really like is his recent form. Flaherty has not allowed a run in 3 straight starts and has allowed 1 or fewer in 6 of his last 7 outings. Take St Louis!
|08-18-19||Padres -112 v. Phillies||3-2||Win||100||7 h 33 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Padres -112
San Diego snapped the Phillies 4-game winning streak with a 5-3 win on Saturday and I look for the Padres to take the series with a victory on Sunday. Just a tough spot for Philadelphia with a big interleague series at Fenway Park against the Red Sox starting on Tuesday. A
After yesterday's loss the Phillies are now just 2-6 in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record. Numbers don't look great for Padres starter Joey Lucchesi, but we know the talent is there and if you look past the mediocre 4.25 ERA in 23 starts, you find a strong 1.197 WHIP (Top 20 NL). Philadelphia is just 10-28 in their last 38 vs a NL starter with a WHIP of 1.25 or better. Take San Diego!
|08-17-19||Dodgers -143 v. Braves||Top||3-4||Loss||-143||9 h 58 m||Show|
5* MLB -Dodgers/Braves NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Dodgers -143
Easy play here on the Dodgers to cash in a win at Atlanta on Saturday. I think LA is out to send a message to the Braves, who are what most consider their biggest threat in the NL. Dodgers took the series opener 8-3 on Friday and did so against arguably Atlanta's best starter.
The Dodgers have scored 9, 15, 9, 7 and 8 runs over their last 5 games. Braves are sending out Mike Foltynewicz, who has an awful 6.24 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 13 starts. Not to mention an even worse 8.81 ERA and 1.761 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
LA is sending out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who returned from a short absence to throw 7 shutout innings in his last start. Ryu is now 12-2 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.939 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Too good a price to pass up the Dodgers in this one. Take Los Angeles!
|08-17-19||Mets v. Royals +195||4-1||Loss||-100||9 h 53 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Royals +195
Big time value here with the Royals as a near +200 home dog against the Mets. New York has been the talk of the league of late, but he Mets have cooled off and are now a prime team to fade with their inflated lines.
KC just won the series opener 4-1 on Friday, as they took down the red-hot Noah Syndergaard and cashed in as a +165 dog. It continued a trend of great pitching for the Royals. Their rotation has posted a 1.74 ERA in their last 5 starts. Jake Junis goes today and he's got a 3.32 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Mets will have deGrom on the mound, but are just 7-15 in his last 22 starts overall and a mere 3-7 in his last 10 outings on the road. Take Kansas City!
|08-17-19||Indians +167 v. Yankees||5-6||Loss||-100||3 h 45 m||Show|
4* MLB - Early Bird ML HEAVY HITTER on Indians +167
This is just too much value to pass up with Cleveland as a massive road dog at Yankee Stadium. I just think we are seeing New York get too much respect from the books at home with James Paxton on the mound. Paxton has a strong 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts, but 2 of the 3 were against the Orioles.
Paxton has not enjoyed facing Cleveland. He's 0-3 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 4 starts. He's also facing a hot Indians offense that has scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 10 games. Cleveland is also a solid 25-14 against left-handed starters this season and 31-19 in 50 days games.
Indians will send out Zach Plesac and Cleveland can't seem to lose with him on the mound. Indians are a perfect 7-0 in Plesac's last 7 starts. Indians as a team are 20-8 in their last 28 on the road. Take Cleveland!
|08-16-19||White Sox v. Angels -117||Top||7-2||Loss||-117||16 h 35 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Angels -117
Love the value here with the Angels as a small home favorite against the White Sox. People are going to be enticed with taking Chicago because they have Lucas Giolito on the mound, but I just think that's a mistake.
While Giolito has been great for the White Sox this season, he's going up against an Angels offense that is locked in right now. Angels have scored 22 runs on 31 hits in their last 3 games and are averaging 6.4 runs/game in their last 7 contests.
Patrick Sandoval didn't have the best big league debut, but he also had the difficult task of making his first start at Fenway Park against a loaded Red Sox lineup. I think he's going to be a different guy here at home against a weaker White Sox lineup. Take Los Angeles!
|08-16-19||Giants v. Diamondbacks -128||10-9||Loss||-128||15 h 4 m||Show|
3* MLB - Late Night ML MASSACRE on Diamondbacks -128
Arizona is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Giants. Big bounce back spot for the Dbacks after getting shutout in yesterday's 7-0 loss to open the series. Arizona will send out newly acquired starter Mike Leake, who is definitely someone you want to back when the books list his team as the favorite.
Over the last two seasons Leake has started a game where his team is a favorite of -110 or more 12 times. His team has went 11-1 in those games, winning by almost 2 runs/game. Leake's team are also 20-8 in his last 28 starts following a loss. Take Arizona!
|08-16-19||Padres -103 v. Phillies||4-8||Loss||-103||13 h 33 m||Show|
3* MLB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Padres -103
Most are going to look at this line and instantly run to place a bet on the Phillies. Not me. I think the books are straight up telling you who to play here. This is a massive letdown spot for Philadelphia. The Phillies just finished off a sweep of the Cubs in dramatic fashion, scoring 6 runs in the bottom of the 9th and winning the game on a walk-off grand slam by Bryce Harper.
Look for this team to come out flat and for Padres starter Chris Paddack to have himself a day. Paddack is a promising young starter who has gone 7-5 with a 3.26 ERA and 0.933 WHIP over 20 starts in first season at the big league level.
Phillies counter with Vincent Velasquez, who simply can't be trusted. While Velasquez has a respectable 3.71 ERA in his last 3 starts, he face a bad Giants offense twice during that stretch. Phillies are 3-9 in his last 12 starts to open a series. Take San Diego!
|08-15-19||Cardinals +153 v. Reds||1-2||Loss||-100||13 h 38 m||Show|
3* MLB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Cardinals +153
This is too good a price to pass up with the red-hot Cardinals. St Louis comes in having won 5 straight and are absolutely dealing on the mound. Cardinals have allowed 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 and are coming off back-to-back shutouts of the Royals in KC.
Michael Wacha goes for the Cardinals and a lot of people are going to look at the poor numbers he's posted. What a lot of people will overlook is his absolute domination of this Reds team. Wacha is 11-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 17 career starts against Cincinnati.
Cardinals have won 7 straight on the road vs a team with a losing record, are 14-3 in their last 17 against a division opponent and 7-2 in their last 9 series openers. Take St Louis!
|08-15-19||Cubs v. Phillies +137||Top||5-7||Win||137||13 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE YEAR on Phillies +137
I absolutely love the value here with Philadelphia as a home dog against the Cubs on Thursday. I have played and won on the Phillies in each of the first two games in this series. They snuck out a 4-2 win on Tuesday, but absolutely annihilated Chicago 11-1 on Wednesday.
Yu Darvish will start for the Cubs and while he's been a lot better of late, he revered some in his last start at Cincinnati, giving up 4 runs in 6 innings, serving up 3 home runs in the process.
I know the numbers aren't great for Drew Smyly, but he's been better of late and we see that with his 1.132 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Smyly is also facing a Cubs offense that is struggling to score. Chicago has scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5.
Cubs are now 10-24 in their last 24 road games and are 0-4 in Darvish's last 4 starts on the road. Phillies are 23-6 in their last 29 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take Philadelphia!
|08-14-19||Mariners -132 v. Tigers||2-3||Loss||-132||13 h 38 m||Show|
3* MLB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Mariners -132
I think this is a steal of a price on Seattle. I think we are seeing a big over reaction to Edwin Jackson's last start, which was his first with Detroit. Jackson held a bad Royals offense to just 1 run in 6 1/3 innings. This is still the same guy that had an atrocious 11.12 ERA and 2.19 WHIP in 8 appearances (5 starts) with the Blue Jays this season.
While Seattle figures to score runs in bunches, Detroit's anemic offense figures to struggle against Marco Gonzales. In his last 3 starts Gonzales has a 3.44 ERA. That includes an outing against these same Tigers, where he held Detroit to a mere 1 run in 7 innings (Mariners won 8-1). Take Seattle!
|08-14-19||Cubs v. Phillies -113||1-11||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
4* MLB - Money Line NO BRAINER on Phillies -113
The Cubs road woes continued on Tuesday, as they lost the opener 4-2 at Philadelphia. That one had to be tough to swallow, as they wasted a great outing by Quintana, who struck out 14 of a possible 18 in his 6 innings of work.
The offense was to blame for the defeat and I don't see Chicago's bats getting things turned around against Aaron Nola, who is 5-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 15 home starts. Phillies are 29-11 in Nova's last 40 home starts and have won 4 of his last 5 vs a team with a winning record.
Cubs are now 10-23 in their last 33 road games and 9-21 on the season when listed as an underdog. Take Philadelphia!
|08-14-19||Diamondbacks v. Rockies +133||Top||6-7||Win||133||9 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rockies +133
Love the value here with Colorado as a decently priced home dog against the Diamondbacks. Rockies will be motivated here to avoid getting swept at home by Arizona.
Dbacks will send out Robbie Ray and he's just 5-5 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.645 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Rockies. Ray has already made 2 starts at Coors Field this season and has allowed 10 runs on 14 hits and 7 walks in 10 1/3 innings. Ray is also not a fan of pitching in day games. Colorado is just 2-6 this season and 3-12 over the last 2 seasons when Ray starts a day contest.
I know the numbers aren't great for Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, but he's trending in the right direction. He's been rock solid in each of his last two outings. Colorado also just seems to find a way to win at home with him on the mound. Rockies are 17-6 in Freeland's last 23 home starts, including a 10-3 mark in his last 13 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take Colorado!
|08-13-19||Mets v. Braves -122||Top||3-5||Win||100||13 h 48 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves -122
I love the value here with Atlanta as a small home favorite against New York. The Mets are the flavor of the week right now, as they have went on a ridiculous run over the last 3 weeks. I believe it has them way overvalued here on the road against your NL East leaders.
I get that Zack Wheeler has been really good of late with a 1.33 ERA in his last 3 starts, but you have to factor in that those 3 starts came against the Marlins, White Sox and Pirates. All of those fail in comparison to the fire-power of Atlanta's offense, which is averaging 6.7 runs/game over their last 7 contests. Wheeler also has a 4.19 ERA in 11 road stats and has allowed 7 runs on 16 hits in 12 innings (2 starts) against the Braves this year.
Atlanta will turn to Max Fried. They have won 16 of his last 22 starts, including each of his last 4. Fried also has a strong 2.95 ERA in 4 career starts against the Mets. Braves are 7-0 in Fried's last 7 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Atlanta!
|08-13-19||Cubs v. Phillies +116||2-4||Win||116||12 h 25 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Phillies +116
I like the value here with Philadelphia at home against the Cubs. Chicago should not be a road favorite with how they have struggled away from home. Cubs are just 23-35 on the road compared to 41-19 at home.
Cubs starter Jose Quintana is a mere 3-3 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.365 WHIP in 10 road starts and has not had much success when visiting Philadelphia. Quintana owns a 5.29 ERA in his last 3 starts at Citizens Bank Park. Cubs are also a mere 2-6 in Quintana's last 8 starts to open up a series.
Phillies are 21-6 in their last 27 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. They are also 31-14 in their last 45 home games vs a left-handed starter. Take Philadelphia!
|08-12-19||Diamondbacks +107 v. Rockies||Top||8-6||Win||107||14 h 8 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Diamondbacks +107
Arizona should have no problem cashing in a win on the road against the reeling Rockies. Diamondbacks lost 2 of 3 at the Dodgers over the weekend, but are still 5-3 in their last 8 and I look for them to get right back in the win column on Monday.
Colorado was suppose to be a contender, but have lost 31 of their last 44 games to fall well out of the playoff race. Just no way you can feel confident backing this Rockies team right now, especially with the likes of Peter Lambert on the mound. Lambert has made 11 starts and owns an awful 6.87 ERA and 1.582 WHIP. He's given up more than a run/inning in his last 3 starts and is facing an Arizona offense that is averaging a healthy 5.4 runs/game on the road this season.
Rockies have lost 7 of 10 at home and are a mere 4-14 in their last 18 vs a division opponent. They have a mere 1 win in Lambert's last 9 starts. Take Arizona!
|08-12-19||Red Sox -110 v. Indians||5-6||Loss||-110||12 h 40 m||Show|
3* MLB - Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Red Sox -110
This line doesn't make a lot of sense and to me the books are tipping their hand here. Boston has lost 11 of 14, while Cleveland just took 3 of 4 at Minnesota to pull even at the top of the AL Central. Indians are 8-2 in their last 10. Your average joe is going to be all over Cleveland as a home dog, especially with how well starter Zach Plesac has been throwing.
If you have been in this business long enough, you know long-term you want to be betting against the obvious play. This is a bit of a letdown spot for Cleveland after that massive series at Minnesota and with the Indians being one of the teams Boston is chasing, this feels like a do or die series for the Red Sox and their playoff hopes.
Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez has a strong 3.26 ERA in his last 3 starts and two of those were against the Yankees. He's also got a strong 2.63 ERA and 0.878 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Indians. Red Sox have won 18 of his last 23 road starts and are 17-4 in his last 21 off a loss. Take Boston!
|08-11-19||Diamondbacks +200 v. Dodgers||Top||3-9||Loss||-100||10 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Diamondbacks +200
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Diamondbacks in Sunday's series finale against the Dodgers. Arizona has been playing well of late with 5 wins in their last 7 games and I feel this a good spot to fade LA, who we know is being overvalued by the books with how much the public likes to back them.
Public will definitely be on the Dodgers in this one, as they will send out the favorite to win the NL Cy Young in Hyun-Jin Ryu. What they will over look is that he is making his first start back from the IL. I could see him dealing with some rust, which wouldn't be something new. LA is a mere 2-6 in Ryu's last 8 starts when he's throwing on 10 or more days of rest.
Diamondbacks have gone an impressive 12-4 in their last 16 in Game 3 of a series, are 12-5 in their last 17 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 6-2 in their last 8 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take Arizona!
|08-11-19||Pirates v. Cardinals -183||9-11||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cardinals -183
Easy play here for me on the Cardinals as a big home favorite against the Pirates. St Louis has did exactly what they needed to do after losing 5 straight on the road by taking the first 2 games in this series.
Pirates are in a dark place right now, as they continue on their post All-Star break free-fall. Pittsburgh's offense has been atrocious and are in bad form right now with just 9 runs in their last 4 games. Hard to see them getting on track against the Cardinals Miles Mikolas, who has a 1.98 ERA in 11 home starts and a 2.79 ERA in 9 starts against the Pirates.
St Louis has now won 13 of 16 against division opponents and are 35-17 in their last 52 vs a team with a losing record. Pirates have lost 7 straight in Game 3 of a series after losing the first two and are 5-22 in their last 27 road games vs a team that has a winning home record. Take St Louis!
|08-11-19||Cubs +122 v. Reds||6-3||Win||122||7 h 34 m||Show|
4* MLB - Early Bird HEAVY HITTER on Cubs +122
Chicago is definitely worth a look here as a road dog in Sunday's series finale against the Reds. Cincinnati has been playing well of late, but I think they are in a bit of a flat spot here after laying it on the Cubs in Saturday's 10-1 win, which saw rookie Aristides Aquino hit 3 homers.
The public is going to be all over the Reds, in large part because of how bad Jon Lester has been in his last 2 starts. Lester is coming off a career-worst outing and I got a sneaky feeling the veteran is going to bounce back in a big way in this one. Lester is a perfect 11-0 vs the money line after getting hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings.
Chicago is also a dominant 43-10 in Lester's last 53 starts vs a team with a losing record. Don't get a lot of 4-game series, but the Cubs have finished these off well, going 37-17 in their last 54 in Game 4 of a series, while the Reds are just 3-10 in this spot.
I know the Reds will have ace Luis Castillo on the mound, but Cubs are 31-16 in their last 47 vs an NL starter with a WHIP less than 1.150. Take Chicago!
|08-10-19||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -172||0-4||Win||100||15 h 38 m||Show|
4* MLB - Late Night ML NO-BRAINER on Dodgers -172
The Dodgers made it pretty clear they weren't happy with how last night's game ended and it has me loving LA on Saturday. It helps that LA will have Kenta Maeda on the mound, who has really pitched well at home. Dodgers have won 7 of Maeda's 10 home starts and he's pitched well in both of his starts against Arizona this season, giving up just 4 runs on 7 hits with 13 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings.
Diamondbacks will send out Alex Young, who has cooled off a bit after a strong start to this big league career. Young has a 2.78 ERA in 6 starts, but just a 4.50 ERA in his last 3 outings. This will easily be the toughest offense's faced so far and I could see the nerves getting to him a bit in this one.
It's not always easy being profitable at home when you are such a public team, but LA has gone a very nice 41-13 as a home favorite of -150 or more. Dodgers are also 22-5 in their last 27 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 40-18 in their last 58 off a loss. Take Los Angeles!
|08-10-19||Rockies +195 v. Padres||Top||5-8||Loss||-100||14 h 8 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rockies +195
Love the value here with Colorado in this one. No way should the Padres be anything close to a -200 favorite against a team like the Rockies. Colorado is not a playoff team, but they are more talented than a lot of the other bad teams in the league.
San Diego is even less deserving of this price when you factor in the recent struggles of starter Chris Paddack, who has a 6.28 ER and 1.326 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Padres are a mere 1-8 in Paddack's last 9 starts following a win and have lost 12 of their last 15 when coming off a win by 4 or more.
Padres are also not playing great at home. Even after taking the first two games in this series, they are just 4-10 in their last 14 at home. Take Colorado!
|08-10-19||Braves v. Marlins +192||6-7||Win||192||12 h 34 m||Show|
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Marlins +192
There's just too much talent here with Miami starter Sandy Alcantara to pass up at this price, as we are getting the Marlins at almost +200 odds. Miami has split the first two games in the series and have hit the ball well in the series with 13 runs on 24 hits.
As tough as it is to bet against Atlanta starter Mike Soroka, this will be his third start against the Marlins this season, so there's a lot more familiarity for the hitters. I'll take my chances with Miami betting able to put together enough offense here to get the win. Take Miami!
|08-09-19||Pirates v. Cardinals -135||Top||2-6||Win||100||14 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Cardinals -135
I love the value we are getting with St Louis at home against the Pirates. Cardinals are going to be a pissed off bunch, as they just lost 5 straight out west to the A's and Dodgers. Cardinals are different team at home.
Pirates are the perfect team to get right against. Pittsburgh has been on quite the free fall since the All-Star break. Pirates went into the break a mere 1-game under .500 at 44-45. Heading into tonight's action they are 18-games under .500 at 48-66.
Pirates will send out Chris Archer and he's been an easy fade on the road. Pittsburgh has last 7 of his 9 road starts and it's easy to see why when you look at his 7.14 ERA and 1.478 WHIP away from home. Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson has a solid 3.54 ERA in 10 home starts (7-3 team record) and has pitched well in both of his outings against the Pirates. Take St Louis!
|08-09-19||Cubs v. Reds +103||2-5||Win||103||13 h 38 m||Show|
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Reds +103
Cincinnati is worth a look here as a home dog against division rival Chicago. I know Darvish has been throwing better of late for the Cubs, but Chicago is still a mere 1-6 in his last 7 road starts and have lost 5 of 6 road starts by Darvish against a team with a losing record.
Reds will counter with their new addition in Trevor Bauer and he had a solid first outing with Cincinnati. More importantly is how well he's pitched against the Cubs, posting a 1.98 ERA in 5 starts. He faced them twice last year and allowed just 1 run in 12 2/3 innings.
Cincinnati is also a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a loss and have won 6 of 8 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Cincinnati!
|08-09-19||Yankees v. Blue Jays +136||2-8||Win||136||13 h 31 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Blue Jays +136
I like the value we are getting here with Toronto as a decently priced home dog against the Yankees. No surprise that NY is overvalued, as they are a massive public play every single day. I just think the Blue Jays are playing well enough to take a shot.
I really like how Toronto is swinging the bat. They have scored at least 4 runs in 12 of their last 13 games and are hitting a solid .270 as a team in their last 7. That offense will be up against the struggling J.A. Happ, who has a 7.80 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Toronto on the other hand sends out the red-hot Sean Reid Foley, who has a 1.88 ERA in his last 3 outings. Take Toronto!
|08-08-19||Rockies -101 v. Padres||3-9||Loss||-101||16 h 34 m||Show|
4* MLB - Late Night ML NO-BRAINER on Rockies -101
Colorado is worth a look here at basically even money in Thursday's series opener at San Diego. Rockies will send out Jon Gray for his 24th start of 2019 and he's got a pretty solid 4.04 ERA given he's made half his starts at Coors Field.
Gray comes into this one in good form with a 3.37 ERA in his last 3 starts, but even more important is his success over his career against the Padres. Gray is 10-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 18 starts vs San Diego. Padres starter, Eric Lauer, has a 7.62 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 12.51 ERA and 2.487 WHIP in 4 starts against the Rockies.
Last time out the Rockies played in a high-scoring game and that's worth noting, as Colorado is 14-4 in their last 18 road games after a game with 15 or more runs. Padres are 2-10 in their last 12 home games and have lost 6 straight home starts by Lauer against a team with a losing record. Take Colorado!
|08-08-19||Cubs -123 v. Reds||Top||12-5||Win||100||13 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Cubs -123
Love the value here with Chicago as a small road favorite against the Reds on Thursday. Cubs are fresh off a 5-1 homestand and not only was the pitching great (allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 games), the offense was outstanding (scored at least 4 in every game).
I look for them to stay hot at the plate against Reds' starter Alex Wood, who is still working out the kinks. This will be just the 3rd start for Wood in 2019. While he's only given up 4 runs in 11 1/3 innings, he's allowed 3 homers. Cubs hit 3 homers in yesterday's 10-1 win over the A's and the ball flies out of Great American Ballpark.
Chicago will also have Cole Hamels on the mound and they have really missed him. Hamels made his first start back from the IL and was outstanding in 5 shutout innings, allowing just 4 hits with 0 walks and 6 strikeouts. Hamels has a 1.83 ERA in 19 career starts (17-2 team record!). Take Chicago!
|08-07-19||Phillies v. Diamondbacks -133||1-6||Win||100||15 h 4 m||Show|
4* MLB - Late Night Money Line NO-BRAINER on Diamondbacks -133
Arizona rebounded from a loss in the series opener with a 8-4 win on Tuesday, giving them 3 wins in their last 4 games. They have scored 7 or more runs in all 3 of the wins during this stretch and have had at least 9 hits in all 4.
I like the Dbacks offense to stay hot against Jason Vargas. While Vargas has a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 19 starts, he's got an ugly 5.03 ERA and 1.324 WHIP in 10 road starts. Arizona will turn to their new top in Zac Gallen, who they acquired from Miami in a trade. Gallen owns a 1-3 record in 7 starts in 2019, but has a sensational 2.73 ERA and 1.184 WHIP in those 7 starts. He also owns an even better 1.40 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Phillies are just 3-17 in their last 20 as a dog of +125 to +175 and 7-19 in their last 26 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Dbacks have also won 6 of 8 at home vs Philly. Take Arizona!
|08-07-19||White Sox -103 v. Tigers||Top||8-1||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on White Sox -103
Absolutely love the value here with the White Sox on Wednesday. Chicago split the double-header with Detroit on Tuesday. Tigers won the second game and are poised to return right back to their losing ways. Detroit has not won back-to-back games since winning 3 in a row way back in the final week of May.
That right there is enough reason to take a shot on the White Sox at this price. However, there's more reason to like Chicago in this matchup. White Sox offense is heating up with the return of Tim Anderson to the lineup from injury. Chicago has scored 28 runs in their last 4 games (at least 5 in each). White Sox will also send out the red-hot Ivan Nova, who is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.700 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Chicago!
|08-07-19||Marlins +189 v. Mets||2-7||Loss||-100||6 h 38 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Marlins +189
With the Mets coming in having won 12 of their last 13 and the Marlins perceived to be one of the worst teams in the league, we are seeing some exceptional value here with Miami as a massive road dog on Wednesday.
Marlins will have Jordan Yamamoto on the mound and he's been really god in his 4 road starts this since joining the rotation. Yamamoto has allowed just 7 runs on 10 hits in 22 innings away from home, which adds up to a stellar 2.86 ERA to go along with a sensational 0.955 WHIP.
Mets will send out Steve Matz, who has been solid of late, but is still just 6-7 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.383 WHIP in 20 starts this season. Mets are a mere 2-6 in Matz's last 8 starts and Marlins are 14-7 in their last 21 when they come in having lost 5 or more games in a row. Take Miami.
|08-06-19||Rockies +188 v. Astros||Top||6-11||Loss||-100||14 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockies +188
No way I'm passing up a big play here on the Rockies as a near +200 dog with German Marquez on the mound. Houston should be favored at home, but this line has been drastically inflated with the hype around Zack Greinke and his recent trade to the Astros.
I could definitely see Greinke struggling here and he's got an ERA close to 4.00 in his career against the Rockies. Marquez will start for the Rockies and he's been outstanding of late, posting a 1.80 ERA and 0.600 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Marquez has really enjoyed pitching away from Coors Field. He's got a 4.68 ERA on the season, but a stellar 3.20 ERA and 0.869 WHIP in 12 road starts.
Rockies have won 9 of Marquez's last 11 road starts and the Astros are a mere 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games vs a team with a losing record. Take Colorado!
|08-06-19||White Sox v. Tigers +102||6-10||Win||102||13 h 38 m||Show|
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Tigers +102
I like Detroit to secure a win in Game 2 of Tuesday's double-header at home against the White Sox. Chicago will be sending out Hector Santiago for his first start of 2019. Santiago has made 7 starts at Triple-A and it hasn't gone well. He's posted a 5.84 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in what has amounted to 37 innings of work.
Lot of runs expected to be scored, as the total for this one is 10.5. That's been a great sign to fade the White Sox, especially on the road. Chicago is 4-20 over the last 2 seasons in road games with a total of 10 or more.
Numbers aren't great for Tigers starter Verhagen, but that's not a big concern against the White Sox. Chicago is a mere 17-35 in their last 52 games vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Verhagen has also only made 2 starts and both were on the road. Expect a better performance at home. Take Detroit!
|08-06-19||Royals +176 v. Red Sox||6-2||Win||176||13 h 34 m||Show|
3* MLB - Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals +176
I really like the value here with Kansas City as a big road dog against the Red Sox. No question the line here is inflated in favor of Boston, as the Red Sox are a huge public team and the Royals are considered one of the worst teams in the league.
A big factor here is the less than impressive numbers for Boston starter Andrew Cashner. Since coming over to the Red Sox from the Orioles he's posted a 6.94 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 4 starts. Last time out he gave up 7 runs on 7 hits and 5 walks in 5 2/3 innings.
Royals lost the opener on Monday, but they put up a solid 5 runs on 8 hits and are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 5 or more runs. They are also 4-1 in the last 5 starts for Junis after a game where they scored 5 or more. Take KC!
|08-05-19||Cardinals +157 v. Dodgers||Top||0-8||Loss||-100||15 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cardinals +157
I love the value here with St Louis in Monday's series opener with the Dodgers. It doesn't matter who LA is starting or who they are playing, they are going to be overvalued by the books against most teams.
No way should the Dodgers be this big of a favorite with the likes of Tony Gonsolin on the mound. The rookie has just 1 big league start on his resume and it wasn't great. He gave up 6 runs (earned) on 6 hits in 4 innings at Arizona. LA has also not played their best to start out a new week, going just 1-4 in their last 5 games on Monday.
Cardinals are going to be extremely motivated after getting swept by the A's in a short 2-game series at Oakland. They will have Michael Wacha on the mound and have enjoyed quite a bit of success with Wacha to open up a series, going 9-3 his last 12 series openers. Cardinals are also 9-1 in their last 10 games played on Monday. Take St Louis!
|08-05-19||Braves -105 v. Twins||3-5||Loss||-105||12 h 2 m||Show|
4* MLB - Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK on Braves -105
I like Atlanta to get a win in Monday's series opener at Minnesota. I get the Twins are red-hot with 8 wins in their last 10 games, but their last 3 series have been against the Royals, Marlins and White Sox.
More than anything this is a play on Braves' starter Mike Soroka, who has been outstanding this season. Soroka is 10-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 19 starts. As good as that looks, it's nothing compared to his 6-0 record and 1.20 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in 11 road starts. Braves are a ridiculous 15-4 in his last 19 starts this season.
Braves just lost 2 of their last 3 at home to the Reds and that's actually a positive for backers today. Atlanta is 12-1 in their last 13 road games after losing 2 of their last 3. Braves are also 15-5 in their last 20 road games after 4 or more home games. Take Atlanta!
|08-05-19||Brewers -129 v. Pirates||9-7||Win||100||12 h 33 m||Show|
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Brewers -129
I think we are getting a great price here with Milwaukee as a short road favorite against the Pirates. The Brewers come in having lost 4 straight after getting swept in a 3-game series at the Cubs over the weekend, but that's nothing compared to how bad Pittsburgh has been. Pirates are 4-18 in their last 22 games.
Brewers offense is ready to explode after getting held to just 5 runs in their 3-game series at Chicago. Lucky for them the Pirates are sending out Dario Agrazal, who has a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts. I also think it will benefit Milwaukee having faced Agrazal back in early July, as they will have a much better idea of what to expect.
Pirates have lost 7 of 8 at home and 5 in a row vs a team with a winning record. Brewers are 22-9 on the season vs NL teams like Pitt who are giving up 5 or more runs/game. Take Milwaukee!
|08-04-19||Tigers +160 v. Rangers||4-9||Loss||-100||7 h 25 m||Show|
3* MLB - Money Line DESTROYER on Tigers +160
Detroit has lost each of the first two games in this series with Texas by a final score of 5-4. I know it's no surprise to see the Tigers lose, but I just feel the value is with Detroit in this one. Tigers will have veteran Jordan Zimmermann on the mound and he's got a strong 3.00 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in 3 starts against the Rangers.
You also have to factor in who Texas has starting. They are sending out 24-year-old Pedro Payano for his second big league start. He didn't pitch great in his first start, allowing 3 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks in 5 1/3 innings at Oakland, which is a heck of a lot more of a pitcher's park than Globe Life.
Tigers have won 9 of Zimmerman's 12 road starts in day games over the last 3 seasons. Rangers have lost 8 of 9 vs a right-handed starter and are 0-4 in their last 4 during Game 3 of a series. Take Detroit!
|08-04-19||Mets -138 v. Pirates||Top||13-2||Win||100||6 h 3 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Mets -138
I thought the Mets would stumble on Saturday after having their big win streak snapped, but they returned right back to their winning ways with a 7-5 win. New York has caught fire with a 8-1 record over their last 9 games.
As good as the Mets have been the Pirates have been bad. Pittsburgh's loss on Saturday was their 17th in their last 21 games. It's been a massive free-fall and I just think the price is too good to pass up with NY in this one.
Mets will have Noah Syndergaard going and he's got a 1.69 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Pirates will have Joe Musgrove, who has a 4.52 ERA in 11 home starts and while he pitched well in his last outing, Pittsburgh is 5-16 in his last 21 starts after a Quality Start. Take New York!
|08-04-19||Angels +188 v. Indians||2-6||Loss||-100||6 h 38 m||Show|
4* MLB - AL Money Line NO-BRAINER on Angels +188
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Angels on Sunday. Easy for the Indians to come out a bit flat here for this early game, as they have already secured a series win by taking the first 2 in the series.
Los Angeles really needs this one to get some momentum back on their side and I think the starting pitching matchup is pretty even with Jaime Barria going up against Shane Bieber. Barria has a 3.60 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 5 starts, while Bieber has a 3.38 ERA in 22 starts.
Note that road dogs of +150 or more have won 59% of the games in the month of August when they come in after 2 straight games where the bullpen had to throw 5 or more innings. Take Los Angeles!
|08-03-19||Reds +121 v. Braves||4-5||Loss||-100||17 h 44 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Reds +121
Cincinnati is worth a look here as a road dog against the Braves. Reds have quietly been playing some of their best ball of the season. Cincinnati won 5-2 on Friday and are now 5-2 in their last 7 games.
Reds will send out their big trade pickup in starter Trevor Bauer and he's got a 6-3 mark with a 2.84 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 12 road starts this season. He faced Atlanta once this year while with Cleveland and was impressive, giving up just 2 runs on 3 hits with 10 Ks in 6 1/3 innings.
Braves will send out Dallas Keuchel who is making just his 9th start after his late signing. Keuchel was really good out of the gate, but has struggled some of late. He's got a mere 5.29 ERA and 1.353 WHIP in his last 3 starts. I think those woes continue here against the Reds. Take Cincinnati!
|08-03-19||Mets v. Pirates +123||Top||7-5||Loss||-100||17 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pirates +123
I love the value here with Pittsburgh at home on Saturday. Mets had their 7-game winning streak snapped on Friday, as the Pirates won 8-4. Always tough to win that next game after having a long winning streak snapped.
I also think Mets are getting a little bit of love here because of the fact that they will send out Marcus Stroman for the first time since acquiring him in a trade. Stroman was outstanding in his audition to be traded, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last 3 starts with Toronto. It doesn't mean he's going to pitch well here.
Pirates offense has scored 6 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games. Also, home teams with a money line of +125 to -125 who are giving up 5 or more runs/game on the season and facing a starter with an ERA of 2.00 or less in his last 3 starts are a dominant 42-18 (70%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. Take Pittsburgh!
|08-03-19||Brewers +125 v. Cubs||1-4||Loss||-100||12 h 48 m||Show|
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Brewers +125
I like the value here with Milwaukee as a decently priced road dog against the Cubs on Saturday. Chicago won the series opener 6-2 on Friday, but have really struggled to string together wins of late. Each of their last 3 wins they have followed up with a loss and have been outscored 13-3 in those games.
I also think it's worth a shot to fade Cubs starter Cole Hamels, who is making his first start in over a month. Hamels had to go on the IL back in June and he was far from sharp in his two rehab starts. I not only think he struggles, but he also figures to be on a pitch count.
Gio Gonzalez will go for Milwaukee and his last start was against these Cubs on 7/26 and he pitched really well. Gonzalez allowed just 2 runs on 3 hits with 9 K's in 6 1/3 innings of a 3-2 win. Brewers are 5-1 in his last 6 starts vs a division foe and 4-0 in his last 4 on the road. Take Milwaukee!
|08-02-19||Padres +164 v. Dodgers||Top||5-2||Win||164||15 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Padres +164
Absolutely love the value here with San Diego as a massive road dog against the Dodgers. There's not denying that LA is the best team in the NL, but they aren't going to win every game the rest of the way and are being way overvalued by the books.
Dodgers will be sending out Dustin May for his first ever big league start. The 21-year-old is a big time prospect in their organization, but more times than not these kids struggle out of the gate. He was just 3-5 with a 3.74 ERA in 15 starts at Double-A before going 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA at Triple-A. You also rarely see these kids pitch deep in their first start.
Padres have scored 5 or more in 4 of their last 5 and I look for them to put up a big number and get a big road win on Friday. Take San Diego!
|08-02-19||Red Sox v. Yankees -122||2-4||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
3* MLB - Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Yankees -122
I really like the value here with New York as a small home favorite against the Red Sox. Boston comes into this one having lost 4 straight and will be up against James Paxton, who they have struggled with more times than not.
Paxton is 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in 6 career starts against Boston. New York comes into this one off a win at home against the Dbacks and are an impressive 40-19 in their last 59 when coming off a victory. They are also 35-16 in their last 51 series openers and 18-3 in their last 21 as a home favorite of -125 to -175!
|08-01-19||Cubs +118 v. Cardinals||Top||0-8||Loss||-100||12 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Cubs +118
I love the value here with Chicago as a road dog against rival St Louis. Cubs evened up the series with a 2-0 win on Wednesday. It's been a low-scoring series so far with a total of 5 runs scored by both teams in 2 games.
I don't see the Cardinals offense being able to turn it on against veteran starter Jon Lester. In his last start Lester was outstanding with 7 shutout innings at Milwaukee. Lester has been a major thorn in the side of St Louis, as he owns a 2.78 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 22 career starts.
Cubs as a team are quietly owning the Cardinals. After yesterday's win they are 30-19 against the Cardinals in the last 3 seasons. St Louis starter, Jack Flaherty has been throwing well, but he's got a mere 4.66 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 6 starts.
Cubs are 39-14 in Lester's last 53 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game and 7-2 in his last 9 during game 3 of a series. Cardinals are 2-8 in Flaherty's last 10 after a Quality Start and 0-4 in his last 4 during game 3 of a series. Take Chicago!
|08-01-19||Twins v. Marlins +157||4-5||Win||157||4 h 6 m||Show|
3* MLB Money Line MASSACRE on Marlins +157
I really like the value here with the Marlins as a big home dog against the Twins. Having already clinched the series by winning the first two games, I could easily see Minnesota not being all that focused when they show up to the park for the final game of their current 7-game road trip, especially with a 10-game homestand looming.
Also, while Miami has lost the last two, they are a respectable 5-3 in their last 8 games and will have a starter on the mound that has the stuff to slow down this Twins offense. Jordan Yamamoto has struggled a bit in his last 2 starts, but this guy had a 1.24 ERA in his first 5 outings.
There's also a strong system in play favoring Miami. NL home teams who have a team OBP of .300 or worse and come in hitting .215 or worse over their last 15 games are a staggering 160-109 (60%) on the money line dating back to 1997. Take Miami!
|07-31-19||Giants +128 v. Phillies||Top||5-1||Win||128||12 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - National League PLAY OF THE MONTH on Giants +128
Love the value here with San Francisco, as I think they should be favored if anything in this one. Phillies won 4-2 in the series opener yesterday, but that's a rare loss for the Giants of late. San Fran is 19-6 in their last 25 games.
Giants have a huge edge on the mound here with them sending out Jeff Samardzija and Philadelphia turning to Vincent Velasquez. Samardzija has really turned a corner this month. He's got a 2.48 ERA in 5 July starts.
Velasquez is 2-4 with a 4.47 ERA in 12 starts. He pitched well in his last start, but that was against a bad Tigers offense. In his previous start he gave up 4 homers and 5 runs in less than 5 innings of work. Giants are a sneaky good road offense, as they are averaging 5.3 runs/game away from home this season. Take San Francisco!
|07-31-19||Tigers +179 v. Angels||9-1||Win||179||9 h 31 m||Show|
4* MLB - Money Line HEAVY HITTER on Tigers +179
Detroit is worth a look here as a massive road dog against the Angels. The price here is just too good to pass up. While LA won yesterday, they also lost the series opener 7-2 to the Tigers on Monday and are just 2-4 in their last 6.
I also think there's a slight edge here in the starting pitching matchup for the Tigers. Detroit's Daniel Norris has a 4.94 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 18 starts, while Angels' Jose Suarez has a 5.35 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in 8 starts. In Norris' last start, he allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits with 8 strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings at Seattle.
Angels have not hit lefties well (.248 team average vs left-handed starters) and are only hitting .223 over their last 7 games. LA has lost 11 of 16 at home vs a left-handed starter and are 2-6 in their last 8 home games. Take Detroit!
|07-31-19||Dodgers v. Rockies +124||5-1||Loss||-100||8 h 38 m||Show|
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Rockies +124
The books are begging you to take the Dodgers by making them a short road favorite with Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound. Ryu enters this contest 11-2 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.956 WHIP in 20 starts. He'll be up against German Marquez, who has a mere 4.87 ERA in 23 starts.
I believe the value is with Colorado, as Ryu is just 4-7 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Rockies. He's really struggled to pitch well at Coors Field. He's made one start at Coors this year and allowed 7 runs on 9 hits, including 3 homers, in just 4 innings. In his previous two starts at Colorado he allowed 14 runs on 14 hits in 6 innings.
As for Marquez, he's been really good in his last two starts and has a strong 2.89 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 7 career starts against the Dodgers. Rockies have won 8 of Marquez's last 10 home starts and are 7-1 in his last 8 starts in Game 3 of a series. Take Colorado!
|07-30-19||Mariners +118 v. Rangers||8-5||Win||118||13 h 33 m||Show|
3* MLB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Mariners +118
I'm jumping on the Mariners Tuesday night in Texas. Rangers have pushed back scheduled starter Mike Minor due to the trade rumors and will instead go with Ariel Jurado. While Jurado was sharp in his last outing, he's a mere 5-5 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in 12 starts. He also has an ugly 6.12 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in 6 home starts.
Seattle will counter with Mike Leake, who has been rock-solid for them all season. Leake is 9-8 with a 4.25 ERA and strong 1.233 WHIP in 21 starts. He's coming into this one in great form, posting a 3.78 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last 3 starts. That includes an outing against these Rangers, where he allowed just 3 runs in 7 innings of a 5-3 win.
Mariners have won 5 of Leake's last 6 starts against a division opponent. Texas has lost 11 of their last 14 and are 1-4 in Jurado's last 5 starts vs a division foe. Take Seattle!
|07-30-19||Rays +131 v. Red Sox||6-5||Win||131||12 h 34 m||Show|
3* MLB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Rays +131
Tampa Bay is worth a look in Tuesdays's series opener with the Red Sox. Rays come in having won 3 of 4 and have scored 19 runs on 29 hits in their last two games. Hard to not like Tampa at the price given how the offense is going and the fact that they will send out Charlie Morton, who is 12-3 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 22 starts.
Morton has made 3 starts against the Red Sox this season and has given up just 7 runs in 19 innings, while holding the Red Sox to a 1.75 batting average. Boston has struggled at home against strong pitching teams, as they are a mere 4-10 at Fenway this season when facing an AL team that is allowing 3.9 runs or less per game.
Tampa is 4-1 in Morton's last 5 starts to open up a series and 4-1 in this last 5 against a division foe. Red Sox have dropped 5 of Price's last 7 starts to open a series. Take Tampa Bay!
|07-30-19||Twins v. Marlins +140||Top||2-1||Loss||-100||12 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Marlins +140
I love the value here with Miami as a massive home dog against the Twins. No question who the better team has been over the course of the season, but Miami comes into this contest having won 5 of 6. They just put up 16 runs in their last 2 games at home against the Dbacks.
That offense will be up against a struggling Jake Odorizzi of the Twins, who has a 8.16 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Miami will have the underrated Zac Gallen on the mound, who has a strong 2.76 ERA in 6 starts and a 1.56 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Marlins have won 5 of their last 6 interleague games, while the Twins are a mere 2-9 in their last 11 interleague road games. Take Miami!
|07-29-19||Braves +140 v. Nationals||Top||3-6||Loss||-100||12 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves +140
Love the value here with Atlanta on the road against the Nationals. Big series here between these to NL East rivals. Braves are 5.5-games ahead of Washington in the division and I look for them to add to that margin with a win in the series opener.
Atlanta will send out Dallas Keuchel, who has been a great signing for them. Keuchel has a 3.50 ERA in 7 starts and even that's a bit misleading. Keuchel has only given up more than 3 runs in one of those 7 starts. He's fresh off a dominant outing against the Royals, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits with 12 K's in 6 innings.
Braves are a strong 31-22 as a road dog of +150 or less, 24-11 in their last 35 vs a division foe and 11-4 in their last 15 off a loss. Take Atlanta!
|07-28-19||Yankees +170 v. Red Sox||Top||9-6||Win||170||12 h 33 m||Show|
5* MLB - Yankees/Red Sox Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Yankees +170
New York is worth a look here as a massive underdog in Sunday's series finale against rival Boston. To say the Yankees will be motivated is an understatement. New York has lost the first 3 games in the series and have given up 38 runs in the process.
Slowing down the Red Sox offense won't be easy, but I like the Yankees to score a bunch here against Boston's Chris Sale, who is just 1-3 with a 4.26 ERA in 10 home starts. Red Sox are just 3-7 in those 10 outings.
Yankees will send out Domingo German and NY is a dominant 10-1 in his last 11 starts vs a division opponent. They are also 8-2 in his last 10 road starts and 6-0 in his last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take New York!
|07-28-19||Diamondbacks v. Marlins +140||1-5||Win||140||6 h 38 m||Show|
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Marlins +140
Easy play here on Miami at home. Marlins had won 3 straight prior to losing on Saturday and you want to fade the Diamondbacks with Robbie Ray on the mound in this spot. Arizona has lost 7 of Ray's last 8 starts on Sunday and 11 of his last 14 starts during a day game.
Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and Ray comes into this one with a 1.309 WHIP in 22 starts. Marlins are also 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs a team with a winning record. Take Miami!
|07-28-19||Rays v. Blue Jays +140||10-9||Loss||-100||6 h 35 m||Show|
3* MLB - Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Blue Jays +140
I like the value here with Toronto off yesterday's big win. Blue Jays were down 6-2 in the 6th inning and crawled back to win 10-9 in 12 innings. Toronto has just the guy to keep the momentum going, as starter Aaron Sanchez has a 2.48 ERA in 8 career starts against the Rays.
Tampa Bay will counter with Yonny Chirinos and the Rays are just 1-7 in his last 8 starts and have lost 4 straight starts by Chirinos in Game 3 of a series. Tampa is also a mere 1-9 in their last 10 after a game where the bullpen threw 8 or more innings and 4-14 in their last 18 road games after scoring 9 or more runs. Take Toronto!
|07-27-19||Rangers +157 v. A's||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||16 h 7 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Rangers +157
Amazing value here with the Rangers as a huge road dog against the A's. No way should Oakland be getting this kind of respect with how they are playing. A's have lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. Texas on the other hand has won 3 of 4.
The big problem for the A's is their offense has gone ice-cold. Oakland has scored 4 or fewer in 4 straight and are averaging just 3.3 runs/game and hitting a lousy .183 as a team over their last 7 games. Rangers have scored 5 or more in 3 of their last 4 and figure to stay hot with the A's Homer Bailey supporting a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Rangers have won the first two in the series and that's worth noting, as the A's have dropped 8 straight after losing the first two in a series. Bailey is also 3-19 in his last 22 starts vs the ML when simply facing a team with a winning record. Take Texas!
|07-27-19||Braves -116 v. Phillies||15-7||Win||100||14 h 5 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational NO-BRAINER on Braves -116
After getting shutout on Wednesday, Atlanta's offense responded in a big way, scoring 9 runs in Friday's 9-2 series opening win at Philadelphia. I look for the high-powered Braves offense to stay hot.
A big reason for that is who the Phillies are sending out as their starter for this one. Philadelphia will turn to Zach Eflin, who has an awful 11.08 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in his last 3 starts. During this stretch Eflin has allwoed 17 runs on 21 hits in 13 innings.
Braves are 30-16 in their last 46 as a favorite of -100 to -150 and are a dominant 17-4 in their last 21 after scoring 8 or more runs in their previous game. Take Atlanta!
|07-26-19||Giants v. Padres -136||2-1||Loss||-136||15 h 42 m||Show|
4* MLB - Late Night DIAMOND DESTROYER on Padres -136
Great spot and price to back the Padres at home. San Diego will be extremely motivated off yesterday's 4-0 loss to the Mets.
Padres have been a great team to back off a loss like that. San Diego is 10-3 off a game that saw a combined score of 4 or less and 19-8 over the last 3 seasons off a game where they were shutout.
It also helps the Padres will have Joey Lucchesi on the mound. While Lucchesi has a modest 7-5 with a 4.27 ERA in 19 starts, he's been lights out at Petco Park, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in 11 home starts. Padres are a perfect 4-0 in Lucchesi's last 4 starts to open up a series and 4-0 in his last 4 after scoring 2 or fewer runs. Take San Diego!
|07-26-19||Cubs v. Brewers +105||2-3||Win||105||13 h 42 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Brewers +105
Big time value here with Milwaukee at basically a pick'em at home. Brewers are a respectable 6-3 in their last 9 game sand have scored at least 5 runs in all 9 games during this stretch. I look for that offense to be the difference Friday night against the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks.
The home/away splits for Hendricks are hard to ignore. The guy is 4-2 with an incredible 1.89 ERA in 9 home starts, yet is just 3-6 with a 5.44 ERA in 9 road starts. Hendricks only start against the Brewers this season came in Milwaukee back in April and he lasted just 4 innings after giving up 4 runs on 8 hits.
Brewers will send out Gio Gonzalez, who has pitched well enough for Milwaukee to win 5 of his 7 starts this year. Gonzalez also has a strong track record against the Cubs, posting a 3.23 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 13 starts. Take Milwaukee!
|07-26-19||Dodgers v. Nationals +154||Top||4-2||Loss||-100||12 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Nationals +154
This is just too good a price to pass up with Washington at home. The Dodgers are a great team, but no way should they be this big a favorite on the road against another playoff caliber team. Nationals have been on quite a run the last 2 months and even with yesterday's loss to the Rockies are 13-4 in their last 17 at home.
The overall numbers are great for Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, as he's 11-2 with a 1.76 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in 19 starts. While still great, it is worth noting that his ERA is pushing 3.00 (2.92) on the road. Dodgers are just 4-12 in Ryu's last 16 road starts against a team with a winning record and 8-17 in his last 25 road games played at night.
Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 following a SU loss, have won 4 straight series openers and are 8-2 in Anibal Sanchez's last 10 starts. Take Washington!
|07-25-19||Indians v. Royals +133||5-4||Loss||-100||13 h 47 m||Show|
4* MLB - Vegas Money Line NO-BRAINER on Royals +133
The Royals are simply playing too good a ball right now to pass up as a division home dog. Kansas City just went on the road and swept the Braves in a quick 2-game series. Royals are 9-3 in their last 12 games, which is quite the run for a team that still sits a hefty 25-games under .500.
Mike Montgomery is going to get his second chance at a start in 2019. The first one didn't go well, but we know he's got the stuff to pitch at a high level from his days with the Cubs. Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 series openers and have won 4 straight at home. Take Kansas City!
|07-25-19||Padres +192 v. Mets||Top||0-4||Loss||-100||5 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - Heavy Hitter TOP PLAY on Padres +192
It's hard to blame the books for overpricing the Mets with an elite starter like Jacob deGrom on the mound, but the value continues to be on the opposing teams. New York is a mere 8-22 in deGrom's last 30 home starts, yet are a -200 favorite.
Padres had no problem getting to New York's Noah Syndergaard on Wednesday and have scored 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games. Mets offense is the complete opposite. The 2 runs NY scored in yesterday's loss marked the 4th time in the last 6 games that they scored 2 or fewer runs.
Padres are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs a right-handed starter. Mets 9-20 last 29 vs a marginal losing team (46% to 49% WP). Take San Diego!
|07-24-19||Angels +182 v. Dodgers||3-2||Win||182||15 h 42 m||Show|
4* MLB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Angels +182
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Angels right now. The Angels have won 8 of 11 since the All-Star break and Mike Trout is in one of the hottest stretches of his career with 11 home runs in his last 13 games. Angels have also won all 3 meetings so far in the series against cross-town rival Dodgers.
I'm just willing to bet that Trout can career the Angels to a win here. Dodgers Ross Stripling has a 4.40 ERA in his last 3 starts and an ugly 5.06 ERA in 2 career starts vs the other LA team. Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 5 or more runs and have won 7 of their last 10 interleague games vs a team with a winning record. Take Angels!
|07-24-19||Yankees -105 v. Twins||10-7||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
4* MLB - Vegas Money Line NO-BRAINER on Yankees -105
New York won an absolute thriller on Tuesday, sneaking out a 14-12 win in 10 innings thanks to a highlight reel diving catch by Aaron Hicks to end the game with the bases loaded. That's one of those losses that stings a little more than others. I just think this is a great price to get New York when they got all the momentum in the series.
Yankees are a team you can feel good about backing on the road. New York has a solid 27-18 road record in 2019 and are scoring 6.4 runs/game away from home. That offense comes in no point, as they are averaging 7.7 runs/game in their last 7, a stretch in which they have hit a staggering .313 as a team.
As good as Jake Odorizzi has been for the Twins this season, he doesn't come into this one in great form. He's got a 6.08 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Yanks aren't the team to get right against. Take New York!
|07-24-19||Reds +137 v. Brewers||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||7 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds +137
Love the value here with Cincinnati as a decently priced road dog at Milwaukee. Reds have already won the first two games of the series and it feels like the Brewers are in trouble. The pitching has not been good and they just lost Woodruff for 6 or more weeks. They will send out Jhoulys Chacin for this one and he's 3-10 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.529 WHIP.
Reds are swinging a hot bat with 29 hits and 20 runs the last two days. Hard to see Chacin keeping them in check. Cincinnati will send out Lucas Sims for his second start of 2019. The first one was promising. While Sims allowed 4 runs, he struck out 9 and walked just 1 while pitching into the 8th inning. Take Cincinnati!
|07-23-19||Cubs -103 v. Giants||4-5||Loss||-103||14 h 17 m||Show|
4* MLB - Late Night DIAMOND DESTROYER on Cubs -103
Most are going to want to jump on the red-hot Giants at home with ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound, but I really like the Cubs in this spot. I think now is the time to jump on Chicago's Yu Darvish.
Guy has put together back-to-back dominant starts. In his first start back from the break he allowed 0 runs on 2 hits with 8 k's in 6 innings against the Pirates. Very next start he allowed 0 runs on 2 hits with 7 k's in 6 innings against the Reds. This is what the Cubs expected when the signed him.
It's worth noting that the Giants squeaked out 5-4 win in Monday's series opener. That sets up a very profitable spot for the Cubs, as they are 41-14 over the last 3 seasons when revenging a 1-run loss. Take Chicago!
|07-23-19||Reds +128 v. Brewers||Top||14-6||Win||128||13 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Central GAME OF THE WEEK on Reds +128
I nailed my free pick on Cincinnati as a road dog over Milwaukee on Monday and will fire right back with the Reds as an even bigger dog in Game 2 of their 3-game series. I just think Cincinnati starter, Tanner Roark, is being way undervalued here.
Roark has an ugly 7.16 ERA in his last 3 starts, but that's a direct result of one bad outing at Coors Field against the Rockies, where he gave up 7 runs on 13 hits in 4 2/3 innings. He bounced back in his next start and allowed just 2 runs in 5 innings vs a hot Cardinals team. He's allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts.
Brewers will send out Zach Davies, who has a sensational 2.79 ERA in 20 starts overall and a 0.50 ERA in his last 3 outings. However, Davies has had his struggles against the Reds. He's faced them 12 times and has an ERA of 4.02 and a WHIP at 1.340. That includes 2 starts this year, where he's allowed 8 runs on 10 hits and 5 walks in just 8 innings of work. Take Cincinnati!
|07-23-19||Indians v. Blue Jays +164||1-2||Win||164||12 h 39 m||Show|
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Blue Jays +164
This is just too good a price to pass up with Toronto at home. I also think there's some hidden value with the Blue Jays. The starting pitching matchup looks to heavily favor Cleveland with Trevor Bauer going up against Aaron Sanchez. Bauer has a 3.73 ERA in 22 starts and Sanchez has a 6.26 ERA in 21 starts.
The thing is, Bauer is just 2-2 with an ugly 5.57 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in 7 career starts against Toronto. Sanchez on the other hand has seen his team win 3 of his 4 starts vs Cleveland and he has a strong 3.74 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in those 4 outings. Take Toronto!
|07-22-19||Rangers +116 v. Mariners||Top||3-7||Loss||-100||15 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Rangers +116
Easy play here on Texas as an underdog against the Mariners. Looking back at it now, it's crazy to think that Seattle started out the season 13-2. They have won just 27 games since and are 33 games under .500 since that epic start.
They are in really bad form right now, as the Mariners are a mere 3-15 in their last 18 games. I know Texas is struggling, but this is the team to get right against. Note that Seattle has lost 24 of their last 31 at home vs a team with a winning record and 7 of their last 8 games against Texas. No way should the Rangers be a dog in this fight. Take Texas!
|07-22-19||Yankees -105 v. Twins||6-8||Loss||-105||13 h 42 m||Show|
4* MLB - Money Line NO-BRAINER on Yankees -105
Love the value here with New York against the Twins. While the Yankees lost on Sunday, they are 5-1 in their last 6. Minnesota is the opposite. They come in off a win, but have lost 5 of 7.
Both teams are loaded on the offensive side of the ball with power bats and can score runs in a hurry. They key here is who will get the better pitching and it's hard to not say New York.
Yankees have the better bullpen and will send out veteran C.C. Sabathia, who has tormented the Twins in his career. Sabathia is 22-9 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 41 career starts. He's faced them once each of the last 3 seasons and has allowed a mere 3 earned runs on 14 hits in 18 innings of work.
Yankees are a dominant 26-7 in their 33 games this season where they were listed as a favorite of -100 to -150. They are also a perfect 9-0 this season when coming off a loss by 4 or more runs (lost 8-4 on Sunday). Take New York!
|07-21-19||Brewers v. Diamondbacks +138||7-4||Loss||-100||9 h 38 m||Show|
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Diamondbacks +138
Arizona is definitely worth a look here as a big home dog against the Brewers. Simply put, this is too good a price to pass up with a quality team like the Diamondbacks with a starter that is throwing extremely well.
You might not have heard of hime yet, but Arizona south paw Alex Young has made 3 starts and won all 3 of them, posting a sensational 1.10 ERA and 0.551 WHIP in the process. He's allowed just 2 runs on 6 hits with 3 walks in 16 1/3 innings.
Brewers have gone just 1-9 in their last 10 road games vs a left-handed starter, while the Dbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 at home vs a right handed starter. Take Arizona!
|07-21-19||A's +134 v. Twins||6-7||Loss||-100||7 h 38 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on A's +134
The A's continue to show great value here on the road against the Twins. Oakland lost the opener at Minnesota on Thursday, but have won the last two as decently priced dog and I look for them to take the finale on Sunday.
Oakland is on one of their ridiculous runs right now. A's 38-17 in their last 55 overall and are within striking distance (5.5 games) of the Astros in the AL West. Oakland has won 21 of their last 28 on the road. Today's starter, Daniel Mengden has won 5 straight road starts and the A's are a ridiculous 22-8 in his last 30 starts. Take Oakland!
|07-21-19||Rangers +134 v. Astros||Top||3-5||Loss||-100||7 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - Division Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Rangers +134
Love the value here with the Rangers on Sunday. Houston is overpriced here because of how good they are and the fact that they come in having won 4 straight while Texas has lost 6 in a row.
They key here is the starting pitching matchup. Astros are sending out Rogelio Armenteros for his first big league start. Armenteros has been used 3 times out of the pen and doesn't figure to go deep here.
As for Texas, they will send out Lance Lynn, who is having himself quite the season. Lynn has turned back the clock and posted a strong 12-5 record with a 3.87 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 20 starts. He's also one of the few guys that have been able to tame this Astros lineup. Lynn has a 1.94 ERA in 8 career starts against Houston. He's faced them twice this year and allowed a mere 3 runs with 19 K's in 14 innings. Take Texas!
|07-20-19||Brewers +129 v. Diamondbacks||8-3||Win||129||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Brewers +129
I just think we are getting enough value here to take a shot with Milwaukee as a big road dog against the Diamondbacks. Brewers get a boost here with the return of Gio Gonzalez and he's 17-3 as a starter against the money line when he's working on 7 or more days of rest.
Arizona getting love here from the books and the public because they will send out Zack Greinke, but he's just 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA in 7 career starts against the Brewers. On the flip side, Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA in 8 starts against the Dbacks. Take Milwaukee!
|07-20-19||A's +132 v. Twins||5-4||Win||132||12 h 42 m||Show|
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on A's +132
I'll jump on the A's as a big road dog against the Twins. This is just too good a price to pass up with Oakland. Twins aren't playing well. They have lost 4 of 5. The A's on the other hand are 37-17 over their last 54 and have won 7 of their last 8.
On top of that, Oakland will send out the red-hot Brett Anderson, who has a 1.74 ERA and 0.822 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Minnesota's Jose Berrios hasn't won a decision in 6 starts and has an ugly 4.67 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Berrios also has had a rough time against Oakland with a 6.32 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in 3 starts (all losses).
A's are 20-7 in their last 27 on the road and have won 5 straight road games with Anderson on the mound. Take Oakland!
|07-20-19||Blue Jays v. Tigers +116||Top||7-5||Loss||-100||11 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Tigers +116
The Blue Jays rolled the Tigers 12-1 on Friday, so I'm expecting a big effort here from Detroit at home. Toronto is also a team that you want to fade off a win, as they are just 15-36 in their last 51 off a win. Blue Jays are also prone to a bad showing after an offensive outburst. Toronto is 2-16 in their last 18 after scoring 10 or more runs.
You also have to factor in who the Blue Jays have on the mound. Toronto will send out Trent Thornton, who is 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in 20 starts. He didn't even complete 2 innings in his last start. Take Detroit!
|07-19-19||Mets v. Giants +173||Top||0-1||Win||173||15 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE MONTH on Giants +173
This is just too good a price to pass up with San Francisco. The Giants were already riding a wave of momentum coming into this series, as they had won 5 straight and 8 of their last 9. They added to it on Thursday with a thrilling 3-2 win in 16 innings for their 6th win in a row.
Mets are getting way too much love here because of Jacob deGrom n the mound, but San Francisco's Tyler Beede has been throwing lights out of late. Beede has won each of his last 2 starts and has a strong 2.84 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Mets are just 3-12 in their last 15 road games after a loss by 2 runs or less and 4-12 in deGrom's 16 night starts this season. Giants are 6-1 when Beede starts as an underdog. Take San Francisco!
|07-19-19||A's +118 v. Twins||5-3||Win||118||13 h 34 m||Show|
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on A's +118
Twins snapped a 3-game losing streak with a 6-3 win over the A's on Thursday, but my money is on Oakland to even things up with a win tonight. Despite the loss yesterday, A's have been absolutely rolling, as they had won 6 straight. Oakland is 7-3 in their last 10 during Game 2 of a series.
Oakland has also enjoyed facing the AL Central. Even with yesterday's loss they are 42-11 in their last 53 vs the central division. That includes a perfect 5-0 run vs the AL Central with Chris Bassitt on the mound. Bassitt is also fresh off a great start, allowing just 4 hits over 6 shutout innings. Take Oakland!
|07-19-19||Blue Jays v. Tigers +149||12-1||Loss||-100||12 h 34 m||Show|
4* MLB - Vegas Money Line NO-BRAINER on Tigers +149
I like the value here with Detroit as a big home dog against the Blue Jays. Toronto has no business being this big of a road favorite. The Blue Jays have lost 4 of 5 and are a miserable 18-32 on the road this season.
As bad as things have been for Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann, he's 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Blue Jays. Toronto has also dropped 17 of their last 22 series openers. Tigers just played 7 straight on the road and are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. Take Detroit!
|07-18-19||A's +132 v. Twins||Top||3-6||Loss||-100||13 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on A's +132
I'm shocked we are getting the A's at this kind of a price with how well Oakland has been playing. The A's just hit 6 homers in yesterday's 10-2 win over the Mariners, which capped off a perfect homestand. They have won 19 of their last 24 to move just 4.5-games back of the Astros for the top spot in the AL West.
In their last 7 games the A's are outscoring their opponents 7.1-2.7 (+4.4 runs/game). Twins are definitely a contender, but they have been trending down some from their incredible start. The offense has struggled of late as they are averaging just 4.0 runs/game and hitting .240 as a team over their last 7 (avg 5.6 runs/game and hitting .270 on the season).
A's will send out the red-hot Michael Fiers, who is 9-3 with a 3.45 ERA in 19 starts and has a 0.88 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 11 starts vs the Twins. Take Oakland!
|07-18-19||Padres v. Marlins +109||3-4||Win||109||5 h 42 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Marlins +109
I really like this spot and price with Miami at home against the Padres. Marlins will have the vastly underrated Caleb Smith on the mound. Smith is one of the top targets contenders are trying to acquire before the trade deadline. Miami has stated they aren't going to trade Smith, but he's got to want to pitch well incase it increases his chances of getting out of that crap franchise.
Smith is 5-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in 14 starts. Strong numbers if that's all you were going off. However, the real key here is how well Smith has thrown the rock at Marlins Park. He's 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in 6 home starts.
Padres will counter with Dinelson Lamet, who didn't make his first start until July 4th and will be making only his 3rd start when he takes the mound today. First two have been pretty so-so, as Lament has allowed 7 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks in 10 innings (6.30 ERA). I'll take my chances the Marlins offense provides us enough here for the win. Take Miami!
|07-17-19||White Sox +120 v. Royals||5-7||Loss||-100||13 h 47 m||Show|
3* MLB - Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox +120
I like Chicago to snap their 5-game losing streak and get that elusive first win since returning from the All-Star break. This is a big time revenge spot for the White Sox, as they were utterly embarrassed in yesterday's 11-0 loss to KC, where the Royals jumped out to an early lead and just kept laying it on them.
The numbers aren't great for Chicago's Ivan Nova, but he has pitched better on the road in 2019 and while the Royals offense was great on Tuesday, they are not a good offensive team. Also, even if Nova doesn't pitch great, there's a good chance the White Sox score a bunch here against Danny Duffy, who has a 5.28 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Chicago!
|07-17-19||Giants +163 v. Rockies||11-8||Win||163||8 h 42 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Giants +163
This is just too good a price on the Giants. San Francisco has won the first 3 games of the series with Colorado, outscoring the Rockies 37-10 in the process. Giants are 5-1 since returning from the All-Star break and this is a team that went into the break playing their best baseball. SF has won 11 of their last 13.
Rockies will have Jon Gray on the mound and while he's one of their better starters, he's just 1-3 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.513 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Giants. SF is 16-5 in their last 21 games vs a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or more and Gray's is right on the 1.30 mark. Giants have won 7 straight against a division opponent and will make it 8 in a row tonight. Take San Francisco!
|07-17-19||Pirates +117 v. Cardinals||Top||5-6||Loss||-100||6 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB - Early Bird NO LIMIT Top Play on Pirates +117
Pittsburgh snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 3-1 win over the Cardinals on Tuesday and I like them to build off that with another win on Wednesday. Pittsburgh will send out Chris Archer. The 2019 numbers aren't great for Archer, but he's got a strong history against St Louis, posting a 2.76 ERA in 3 starts.
Pittsburgh is 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and St Louis is a mere 2-10 in their last 12 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less and 2-12 in their last 14 after a game with a combined score of 4 or less. Take Pittsburgh!
|07-16-19||White Sox v. Royals +117||Top||0-11||Win||117||13 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB - Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals +117
Easy play here for me with Kansas City as a home dog against the White Sox. Royals have won 3 of 4 since returning from the All-Star break, while Chicago has lost 4 in a row. White Sox are having a miserable time scoring runs, as they have eclipsed 2 runs since the break.
Royals will send out Glenn Sparkman. The overall numbers aren't great, as he's just 2-4 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 9 starts. However, the home/away splits have been pretty drastic. Sparkman has a 1.38 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in 4 home starts.
Chigao is sending out Dylan Cease for his second big league start. Cease gave up 3 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks in just 5 innings of his first start and that was against a bad Tigers offense. Royals have scored 25 runs on 37 hits in the 4 games since the break. Take Kansas City!
|07-16-19||Padres -118 v. Marlins||7-12||Loss||-118||12 h 42 m||Show|
4* MLB - Money Line NO-BRAINER on Padres -118
Really like the value here with the Padres as a small road favorite against the Marlins on Tuesday. San Diego is going to be extremely motivated to get this series started off on the right foot after getting swept at home by Atlanta in the first series back from the All-Star break.
Marlins are getting some love here with this line because of how well starter Jordan Yamamoto has pitched. The thing is, it's hard to win when you struggle to score and Miami has scored 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 9, scoring just 2 runs in each of their last 2 games.
Padres have won 5 of their last 6 on the road and it's worth noting that they were off Monday, as they are 16-7 in their last 23 when playing with a day of rest. Marlins just 5-14 in their last 19, including a 0-6 mark in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take San Diego!
|07-16-19||Dodgers -176 v. Phillies||8-9||Loss||-176||12 h 37 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dodgers -176
We cashed in a massive profit with a GOY play on LA Monday and will fire right back with the Dodgers on Tuesday. LA is hands down the best team in the NL. Just about every one of their starters is top notch and the offense is tied with the Rockies for most runs scored on the season.
Dodgers will have Walker Buehler on the mound in this one and he's coming off a strong start against the Dbacks. Buehler allowed just 3 runs with 9 strikeouts in 7 innings. He'll be facing a Phillies lineup that has scored just 9 runs in 4 games since returning from the All-Star break.
Philadelphia is a miserable 2-13 in their 15 games this season vs an NL starter with a WHIP of 1.150 or better. Phillies are also 1-10 in Velasquez last 11 starts vs a team that is outscoring opponents by 1+ run/game. Take Los Angeles!
|07-15-19||Braves v. Brewers +106||4-2||Loss||-100||13 h 42 m||Show|
3* MLB - Vegas Money Line DESTROYER on Brewers +106
I like the value here with Milwaukee at basically a pick'em at home. Brewers will be extremely motivated to get this series with Atlanta started off with a win, as they have really struggled of late.
I know Atlanta is playing well, but they are coming off a long trip from San Diego to Milwaukee and will have the struggling Max Fried on the mound. Fried was great to start the year, but his ERA is now 4.36 and his WHIP is 1.412. Fried has an even worse 5.62 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 at home vs a left-handed starter and 10-1 in their last 11 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Milwaukee!
|07-15-19||Dodgers -160 v. Phillies||Top||16-2||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Dodgers -160
Easy play here on the Dodgers in Monday's series opener against the Phillies. LA got rocked the first game back from the All-Star break, but responded by winning the final two over the weeked against the Red Sox, scoring 18 runs on 23 hits.
Dodgers will have veteran ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound, who is 7-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 15 starts. He'll be facing a Phillies offense that managed just 7 runs in their series at home against Washington over the weekend.
Phillies will also be sending out the struggling Zach Eflin, who has a 9.64 ERA and 2.143 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Eflin has also not enjoyed facing the Dodgers, as he's 0-2 with a 9.18 ERA and 1.740 WHIP in 4 starts (0-4 team record). Take Los Angeles!
|07-14-19||White Sox +184 v. A's||2-3||Loss||-100||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* MLB - Money Line HEAVY HITTER on White Sox +184
Big time value here with Chicago as a massive road dog against the A's on Sunday. Oakland has won the first two of the series and are off a 13-2 blowout win on Saturday. This is the ideal letdown spot and no way should they be this big of a favorite with the likes of Brett Anderson on the mound. He's got a 4.54 ERA and an ugly 1.560 WHIP in 8 home starts.
Note that the A's have come out flat often on Sunday. Oakland is just 5-12 in their last 17 games played on the final day of the week. That includes a 1-4 mark with Anderson on the mound. White Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 after scoring 2 or fewer runs and 15-8 in their last 23 after losing 3 of their last 4. Take Chicago!
|07-14-19||Tigers +142 v. Royals||Top||12-8||Win||142||7 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Tigers +142
Love this spot and price with Detroit as a road dog against division rival KC. Tigers will have veteran Jordan Zimmerman on the mound and he's owned the Royals in his career. Zimmerman is 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.987 WHIP in 8 starts versus Kansas City.
Royals will send out Homer Bailey, who has a very mediocre 4.80 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in 18 starts. KC is just 1-4 in his last 5 when he starts Game 3 of a series. Royals are also a mere 6-21 in their last 27 following a win and have lost 24 of their last 33 games played on Sunday. Take Detroit!
|07-14-19||Blue Jays +198 v. Yankees||2-4||Loss||-100||6 h 33 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Blue Jays +198
This is just too good a price to pass up with Toronto as a near +200 dog at New York. Blue Jays were an even bigger dog on Saturday (+235) and found a way to win. Yankees offense has scored just 5 runs in their first two games out of the break and will be up against one of Toronto's better starters in Marcus Stroman.
Stroman has a mere 5-9 record, but owns a 3.18 ERA and 1.261 WHIP in his 18 starts. He also has a strong 2.76 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 7 road starts this season. Yankees will send out Tanaka and are just 2-7 in his last 9 home starts as a favorite of -175 to -250. Take Toronto!
|07-13-19||Reds +114 v. Rockies||Top||17-9||Win||114||16 h 52 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Reds +114
Love the value here with Cincinnati as a road dog against the Rockies on Saturday. I just don't trust Colorado starter Kyle Freeland. I know the guy was great last year, finishing 4th in the Cy Young, but he's simply not the same guy in 2019.
Freeland had a 10.17 ERA in 6 starts in May and was demoted to the minors, where he's spent 6 weeks trying to figure things out. For the most part the struggles continued. I would much rather take my chances with Reds starter Tanner Roark, who is 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA in 9 road starts this season. Take Cincinnati!
|07-13-19||Astros -118 v. Rangers||7-6||Win||100||12 h 17 m||Show|
3* MLB - AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Astros -118
Love this spot and price with the Astros on Saturday, as Houston is going to be hungry for a win after coming out of the break with back-to-back losses to division rival Texas. The Astros lead in the AL West is down to just 6-games over the A's (7 in front of the Rangers).
I know the Rangers will have Mike Minor on the mound and he's been unbelievable in 2019, but he's just 2-3 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 career starts against the Astros. Houston will counter with Wade Miley, who has a 3.18 ERA in his last 3 starts and was sharp in his only previous outing against Texas this season, limiting the Rangers to 2 runs on 2 hits in 6 innings of a 4-2 win.
Even after the first two losses in this series, Astros are still 39-14 in their last 53 vs a division foe. They are also 38-15 in their last 53 on the road vs a left-handed starter. Take Houston!