|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-31-19||Tigers +155 v. Braves||Top||8-2||Win||155||11 h 4 m||Show|
5* MLB - Interleague 'No Limit' PLAY OF THE MONTH on Tigers +155
Absolutely love the value here with Detroit as a huge road dog against the Braves. It's all about the edge on the mound in this one. Tigers will turn to Spencer Turnbull, who is one of the most underrated starters in the game because he not only has a mere 2-4 record, but because he's on a bad team.
Turnbull owns a sensational 2.97 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 11 starts. He will be up against Mike Foltynewicz, who has a 5.67 ERA in 6 starts overall and a 6.75 ERA and 1.312 WHIP in 4 home starts. Braves have lost 7 of his last 8 starts and are a miserable 6-24 in their last 30 home games vs a right-handed starter. Take Detroit!
|05-31-19||Nationals v. Reds +111||3-9||Win||111||11 h 54 m||Show|
3* MLB -Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Reds +111
I really like the value here with Cincinnati as a home dog against the Nationals. A lot of people are going to be quick to jump on Washington as a small road favorite, but the Reds have been playing well here of late and starter Tyler Mahle has been outstanding in his two starts at Great American Ballpark.
Mahle has allowed just 1 runs on 6 hits in 11 innings in those 2 home starts and one of those was against the Dodgers, where he limited LA to 0 runs in 6 innings.
Reds did lose last time out, but are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off a loss. Nationals have also gone just 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs a right-handed starter and are just 1-10 in their last 11 following an off day. Take Cincinnati!
|05-31-19||Brewers -109 v. Pirates||4-9||Loss||-109||11 h 49 m||Show|
3* MLB - Vegas Money Line DESTROYER on Brewers -109
I'm all over Milwaukee here as a small road favorite against the Pirates. Brewers won the series opener 11-5 and it could have been a lot worse for Pittsburgh, as Milwaukee left 12 guys on base. Brewers are 3-1 in their last 4 and in prime spot here to add another victory.
Jhoulys Chacin will take the mound for Milwaukee and he's not quite pitched up to his potential, yet still is throwing well enough to get the win here behind a red-hot offense. One that should score early and often against the struggle Chris Archer, who is 1-5 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in 8 starts. Archer's last 3 starts have been especially bad, as he's 0-3 with a 8.56 ERA and 2.048 WHIP. Take Milwaukee!
|05-30-19||Brewers -116 v. Pirates||Top||11-5||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
5* MLB - NL Central PLAY OF THE WEEK on Brewers -116
Milwaukee is worth a look here as a small road favorite at Pittsburgh on Thursday. Pirates have really cooled off here of late. Pittsburgh is just 3-7 in their last 10, which includes a 1-5 mark in their last 6 at home.
Hard to not like the Brewers in this one with Chase Anderson facing off against Joe Musgrove. Anderson has a 2.55 ERA in 4 starts, while Musgrove owns a 4.74 ERA in 10 outings overall and a 6.10 ERA in 4 road outings. Musgrove also has a poor 6.94 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 2 career starts against the Brewers.
Brewers weren't in action on Wednesday and are a dominant 20-6 in their last 26 following an off day. They are also 36-16 in their last 52 series openers. Take Milwaukee!
|05-30-19||Cardinals -106 v. Phillies||5-3||Win||100||5 h 49 m||Show|
4* MLB - Early Bird HEAVY HITTER on Cardinals -106
I'll take my chances with St Louis on the money line in Thursday's series finale at Philadelphia. The fact that the Cardinals are favored really says it all. Public will be all over a Phillies team that is 9-3 in their last 12, won the first two of this series and own a 20-10 record at home.
Why is St Louis favored? It all comes down to the starting pitching matchup. The Cardinals will send out the red-hot Dakota Hudson, who has a 3.07 ERA in his last 5 starts and has delivered a Quality Start in each of his last 3 outings. Phillies will counter with the struggling Jerad Eickhoff, who has an awful 9.75 ERA in his last 3 starts.
Cardinals offense hasn't been there of late, but now is the time to jump on, as they are 20-4 in their last 24 after scoring 4 or fewer runs in 3 straight games. Take St Louis!
|05-29-19||Mets +185 v. Dodgers||Top||8-9||Loss||-100||14 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Mets +185
I can't believe we are getting the same value as yesterday with the Mets. We cashed in an easy winner on New York Tuesday at +185. The Mets got no respect at all yesterday against Rich Hill and now are getting zero love against Walker Buehler with Noah Syndergaard going for them.
While Syndergaard hasn't exactly lived up to expectations in 2019, the guy has thrown a complete game shutout and mixed in several other great outings. You just don't get a pitcher of this kind talent at this price often.
The even bigger factor here is the Mets are swinging a hot bat. New York has scored at least 4 runs in 9 straight games and have hit 5 or more in 8 of those 9. That kind of offense can win any game. Take New York!
|05-29-19||Pirates +142 v. Reds||7-2||Win||142||6 h 29 m||Show|
3* MLB - Early Bird Money Line DESTROYER on Pirates +142
Easy play here on the Pirates as a decently priced road dog at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh getting no love here because starter Steven Brault has a 9.39 ERA and 2.086 WHIP. However, he's only made two starts and his last outing was way back on the 12th. He's lot better than that.
In fact, Brault has owned the Reds in his career. He's made 8 appearances against them and is 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA.
Home favorites of -125 to -175 that are off a win by 4 or more in a game that had 17 or more combined runs are just 26-47 (36%) on the money line over the last 5 seasons. That's the exact spot we find the Reds. Take Pittsburgh!
|05-28-19||Mets +185 v. Dodgers||7-3||Win||185||14 h 54 m||Show|
4* MLB - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Mets +185
Unbelievable value here with New York as a massive road dog against the Dodgers on Tuesday. While the Mets come in off a 9-5 loss to Kershaw and the Dodgers Monday, New York is 6-2 in their last 8 games and a big reason for that is the offense. Despite coming in a losing effort this time, Mets have now scored 4 or more runs in 8 straight games. They are slugging .508 as a team over their last 7 (slugging .411 on the season).
At this price, this is just too good to pass up. Dodgers will have Rich Hill on the mound, but that's actually a positive for NY. Hill owns an awful 7.31 ERA and 1.694 WHIP in 6 starts against the Mets.
LA comes in red-hot, but are just 7-13 over the last 2 seasons when riding a winning streak of 4 or more. Mets are also 14-5 in Matz last 19 starts off a loss. Take New York!
|05-28-19||Tigers -109 v. Orioles||Top||3-0||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Tigers -109
Easy play here on Detroit as a small road favorite at Baltimore Tuesday. Tigers have been a lot more competitive than their recent record would suggest. They are averaging 4.0 runs and hitting .259 as a team over their last 7, yet are 1-6.
I believe that offense will be able to produce more than enough runs to get the win behind starter Matt Boyd. In 11 starts this season, Boyd has a 3.11 ERA and 1.005 WHIP with 80 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings of work.
Baltimore will have Dylan Bundy on the mound. Bundy has a 4.68 ERA in 6 home starts and the Orioles as a team are just 1-5 in those 6 outings. Baltimore is also a mere 3-13 in their last 16 vs a left-handed starter and 0-9 in Bundy's last 9 starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Detroit!
|05-27-19||Rangers +110 v. Mariners||2-6||Loss||-100||13 h 54 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rangers +110
Rangers are worth a look here at pretty much even money on the road against the Mariners. While Texas just lost 2 of 3 at the Angels, they are 8-3 in their last 11 overall. While the Rangers are surging, Seattle has completely fallen off the map.
Mariners have lost 6 straight and 9 of 10 overall. Not only are the Mariners struggling to keep their opponents from scoring a bunch of runs, they just aren't producing at the plate. Hard to not like the Rangers chances in this one with a red-hot Lance Lynn on the mound. Lynn has a 2.57 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in his last 3 starts, all of which he completed 7 innings. Take Texas!
|05-27-19||Pirates v. Reds -200||Top||8-5||Loss||-200||5 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Reds -200
I got no problem laying the big number with Cincinnati at home in Game 1 of their double-header against the Pirates. Reds will have one of the best starters in the game going in Luis Castillo. The guy is 5-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 11 starts. He's even tougher to score against at home, as he owns a 1.89 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in 6 home starts.
While Cincinnati has a legit ace on the mound, Pittsburgh will be counting on the likes of Nick Kingham and his 10.12 ERA and 2.125 WHIP. Last time out Kingham gave up 7 runs on 10 hits in 4 innings. I just don't see a struggling Pirates offense being able to score enough in this one. Take Cincinnati!
|05-26-19||Mariners +130 v. A's||1-7||Loss||-100||8 h 51 m||Show|
3* MLB - Money Line DESTROYER on Mariners +130
Mariners are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog at Oakland. No doubt we are getting some great value here on the money line with Seattle. A's have won 8 straight and the Mariners have lost 5 in a row.
Oakland is going to have Brett Anderson on the mound and he's not exactly been great in 2019. Anderson owns a 4.14 ERA and an ugly 1.362 WHIP in 10 starts. In his last 2 starts against the Mariners, he's given up 9 runs on 13 hits (5 HRs) in just 8 1/3 innings of work.
Seattle will have Mike Leake on the mound and they lost his last start. That's worth noting, as the Mariners are 12-3 in Leake's last 15 starts following a loss in his last outing. Take Seattle!
|05-26-19||Red Sox +158 v. Astros||4-1||Win||158||6 h 54 m||Show|
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Red Sox +158
Red Sox are worth a look here as a big dog against the Astros on Sunday. Not very often will you see Boston at this price, but the Astros are playing well and appear to have a massive edge on the mound with Justin Verlander against the struggling Eduardo Rodriguez.
While Rodriguez has struggled in his last 2 starts, we know the guy has good stuff and Houston has cooled off considerable at the plate. In fact, Astros have scored 4 or fewer runs in 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall. I just think at this price, it's worth a shot on the Red Sox in this one. Take Boston!
|05-26-19||White Sox +220 v. Twins||Top||0-7||Loss||-100||6 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB - AL Central GAME of the MONTH on White Sox +220
I absolutely love the value here with Chicago at more than a 2 to 1 dog Sunday. Minnesota is simply way overpriced due to them coming into this game having won 5 straight and 10 of their last 11 overall.
Note that lone loss came in a flat spot last Sunday, as they had already won the first 3 games of their series against Seattle. They have outscored the White Sox 19-5 in the first two of this series and I think they will have a tough time showing up to the park motivated for this early game against a bad team. Take Chicago!
|05-25-19||Dodgers v. Pirates +165||Top||7-2||Loss||-100||13 h 44 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas Heavy Hitter TOP PLAY on Pirates +165
Absolutely love the value here with Pittsburgh as a massive home dog against the Dodgers. LA is a massive public team and with them playing well and having a strong starter on the mound, no doubt the books inflated the line here.
Pittsburgh will have a capable starter on the mound in Joe Musgrove, and he's coming off back-to-back strong starts. Pirates have won 4 of his last 5 starts at home against a team with a winning record.
Dodgers will have lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound. While he's been great, the Dodgers are just 2-14 in his last 16 road starts vs a team with a winning record and the Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 at home vs a left-handed starter. Take Pittsburgh!
|05-25-19||Braves v. Cardinals +100||3-6||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cardinals +100
St Louis is worth a look here at even money on Saturday. Just too good a price to pass up with the Cardinals at home. Atlanta is simply getting too much love with Mike Soroka on the mound. St Louis has a very capable starter of their own in Dakota Hudson, who has a strong 3.76 ERA in 5 home starts.
While the Braves are playing well, Atlanta is just 14-24 in their last 38 when they go into a contest having won 6 of 8. Cardinals on the other hand are 9-2 in their last 11 at home with a money line of -125 to +125. Take St Louis!
|05-25-19||Rays +122 v. Indians||6-2||Win||122||11 h 39 m||Show|
4* MLB Money Line NO-BRAINER on Rays +122
Tampa Bay is worth a look here as a road dog. This is a great price to back the Rays with Charlie Morton on the mound. Morton is 4-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in 10 starts. He's 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA in 6 road starts, which the Rays have gone 5-1.
Cleveland will have Carlos Carrasco on the mound and he's just 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA in 10 starts. He has been better of late, but is coming off a poor outing at home against the A's and in his last 2 starts vs the Rays, he's allowed 8 runs on 15 hits and 4 walks in 13 1/3 innings.
Indians are also a mere 3-16 over the last 2 seasons against an AL starter with a ERA of 2.90 or better. Take Tampa Bay!
|05-24-19||Braves +142 v. Cardinals||Top||5-2||Win||142||12 h 59 m||Show|
5* MLB No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Braves +142
Love the value here with Atlanta in Friday's series opener against the Cardinals. I'm not so sure St Louis should be favored. Cardinals have not been playing well. St Louis is just 5-14 in their last 19. It's also a weird spot for them, as they have been off 3 of the last 4 days and the one day they did play they had to play a double-header.
Cardinals will have Miles Mikolas on the mound and he's got a mere 4.88 ERA in 10 starts. Last time out Mikolas couldn't even complete 2 innings, as he was pulled after giving up 7 runs on 9 hits. He's just not been the same guy that we saw in 2018.
Atlanta will turn to Mike Foltynewicz. When he's on and healthy, he's one of the better starters the Braves have. He had to miss some time and has not looked great in 5 starts, but was sharp last time out against the Brewers, holding a potent Milwaukee offense to just 2 runs on 3 hits in 6 innings. Take Atlanta!
|05-24-19||White Sox +190 v. Twins||4-11||Loss||-100||12 h 54 m||Show|
4* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on White Sox +190
I think this is a great spot and price to back Chicago. The White Sox are going to come into this series with a ton of confidence, as they just took the final 2 games of their series with the Astros, which featured a complete-game shutout by Giolito on Thursday. No doubt Chicago is going to want to keep it going against a red-hot Twins team that has a 8-game lead in the AL Central.
As for Minnesota, I just feel like this is a flat spot for them. Twins just capped off a 7-game road trip out west with a 16-7 win on Thursday, which featured an impressive 8 homers. Believe it or not, it's a feat they have already accomplished once this season. Really easy for them to not take this series seriously against a team like Chicago.
Overall numbers for today's two starters favor Minnesota, but recent form is in favor of Chicago. White Sox Reynaldo Lopez has a 2.29 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while Twins starter Jose Berrios has a 4.67 ERA and 1.557 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Chicago!
|05-24-19||Reds +151 v. Cubs||6-5||Win||151||6 h 4 m||Show|
4* MLB Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER on Reds +151
Big time value here with Cincinnati as a big road dog against the Cubs. Chicago's Kyle Hendricks has a 2.53 ERA in his last 6 starts and was on quite a run up until his last start. Hendricks had a no-hitter going thru 4 innings, but blew up and allowed 4 runs in the 5th and was forced out of the game. Hendricks needs to be on top of his game to be effective and I think we could see him struggle in this one.
Cubs are also coming off a huge 4-game series against the Phillies and I could see them being a little flat here with an early start. Reds on the other hand have really been playing good baseball over the last month and will be highly motivated to show what they got against a team like the Cubs.
Numbers aren't great for Reds starter Anthony Desclafani, but he's pitched well against the Cubs in his career and the Reds have won 5 of his last 6 starts. That includes 4 straight wins on the road. Take Cincinnati!
|05-23-19||Braves v. Giants +100||5-4||Loss||-100||7 h 29 m||Show|
3* MLB Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Giants +100
Easy play here on San Francisco even money at home with ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Giants have won each of Bumgarner's last 4 straight and it's important to note the early start with this game. Bumgarner has a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 3 day starts this season.
Atlanta is going to counter with Kevin Gausman, who has just not lived up to the hype. Gausman is 2-3 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.250 WHIP. However, I'm more focused on the ugly 5.19 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in 4 road starts. Gausman has made only one start in a day game and it wasn't pretty, as he gave up 5 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings. Take San Francisco!
|05-23-19||Marlins +148 v. Tigers||Top||5-2||Win||148||5 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Marlins +148
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Marlins. Miami is playing as well as they have all season, as they come in on a 5-game winning streak, which includes wins over Detroit in the first two games of this series. As for the Tigers, they have lost 8 in a row.
Detroit is getting love because they have a strong starter going in Matt Boyd, but the problem with the Tigers is they can't score runs. Detroit is scoring just 3.3 runs/game on the season and it's been even worse than that of late, as they are averaging just 2.6 runs/game over their last 7 games.
Tigers are a mere 1-10 in their last 11 home games, 0-7 in their last 7 off a loss, 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series and 0-8 in their last 8 at home vs a right-handed starter. Take Miami!
|05-22-19||Phillies +144 v. Cubs||4-8||Loss||-100||12 h 37 m||Show|
3* MLB Vegas Money Line DESTROYER on Phillies +144
Philadelphia is worth a look here as a decently priced dog at Chicago. Despite blowing yesterday's game in the bottom of the 9th, the Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 and I look for them to take the series with a win tonight.
Cole Irvin will take the mound for Philadelphia and he's been lights out in his first two big league starts. Irvin is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. He'll be facing a Cubs offense that has scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 6.
Phillies are 18-4 in their last 22 when revenging a one run loss and 12-2 in their last 14 in game 3 of a series. Take Philadelphia!
|05-22-19||Marlins +107 v. Tigers||Top||6-3||Win||107||11 h 42 m||Show|
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Marlins +107
This is a great price to jump on Miami. Marlins might be one of the worst teams in the league, but they aren't playing like it. Miami has won 4 straight and will be facing a Tigers team that has lost 7 straight.
Key here is the Marlins have a big edge on the mound. Jose Urena doesn't look great with a 1-6 record and 4.27 ERA in 9 starts. However, those numbers are misleading. He's gone at least 6 innings in each of his last 6 starts and allowed 2 or fewer run 5 times during this run. He's facing a Tigers offense that is one of the worst in the league, averaging 3.3 runs/game and hitting .217 as a team.
While Detroit figures to struggle to score, Marlins should score early and often. Tigers will turn to Daniel Norris and he's got a 4.55 ERA in 6 starts overall and a 5.94 ERA in his last 3 outings. When he is out, he will turn it over to a Tigers bullpen that has a 5.56 ERA. Take Miami!
|05-22-19||Yankees v. Orioles +220||7-5||Loss||-100||10 h 29 m||Show|
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles +220
Simply too much value here with Baltimore as a massive home division dog. While the Yankees have won the first two in the series, Orioles have put up 11 runs on 21 hits. I think that offense is more than capable of putting up a big number here against C.C. Sabathia.
While Sabathia comes in with a sharp 2.97 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 7 starts, there's going to be some regression going forward. Sabathia has also not been nearly as good on the road, where he owns a 4.70 ERA and 1.305 WHIP.
Baltimore's Daniel Staily has really picked up his game against division opponents, going 24-10 in his last 34 starts against a division rival. It's also worth mentioning that the home plate umpire will be David Rackley. Home team has won 7 of his last 10 games behind the plate including a 5-1 record when the Yankees are the road team. Take Baltimore!
|05-22-19||A's v. Indians +120||7-2||Loss||-100||5 h 34 m||Show|
4* MLB Early Bird Money Line SMASH on Indians +120
Big game here for Cleveland and I expect them to get the job done. Indians will be highly motivated to avoid getting swept after dropping the first two to the A's. Oakland on the other hand has secured a winning record on their current 8-game road trip and could get caught looking ahead to their flight back home, especially with a day off on Thursday.
Indians will have Jefry Rodriguez on the mound and he's been a heck of a lot better than his 1-3 record would suggest. Rodriguez has a very strong 3.45 ERA and 1.181 WHIP. He also just faced the A's in Oakland a couple starts back and limited them to 3 runs in 6 innings of a Indians win.
No way should Cleveland be a home dog here. Indians are a dominant 16-5 in their last 21 after losing the first two games of a series. Take Cleveland!
|05-21-19||Reds +130 v. Brewers||Top||3-0||Win||130||11 h 12 m||Show|
5* MLB NL Central GAME of the MONTH on Reds +130
I think the Reds are worth a look in Tuesdays's series opener against the Brewers. Cincinnati has been playing better than .500 ball since their dreadful 1-8 start to the season and will be up for another shot at the defending NL Central champs, especially after Milwaukee swept the Reds in Cincinnati earlier this season (all 3 wins were by exactly 1-run).
Brewers are just 4-4 over their last 8, so they aren't exactly playing their best. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for Milwaukee, as they just finished up a lengthy 10-game road trip on Sunday.
Gio Gonzalez has pitched well in his first 4 starts for the Brewers, but he doesn't go deep in games and is due for a poor outing. Reds are 9-3 in their last 12 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 6-2 in their last 8 on the road vs a team with a winning record and 10-4 in their last 14 off a SU loss. Take Cincinnati!
|05-21-19||Red Sox v. Blue Jays +140||3-10||Win||140||11 h 39 m||Show|
3* MLB Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Blue Jays +140
I'm confident the Blue Jays will come out with a win and cash in a nice ticket as a decently priced home dog against the Red Sox. No denying that Boston is the better team, but it's the Blue Jays who will have a massive edge on the mound in this one.
Toronto will send out Marcus Stroman, who has a 2.95 ERA and 1.293 WHIP in 10 starts. Most of that success has come at home, where he has a 2.60 ERA in 6 starts. Boston will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a mere 4.89 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 9 starts and a awful 6.98 ERA and 1.966 WHIP in 4 road starts. Take Toronto!
|05-20-19||Diamondbacks +130 v. Padres||1-2||Loss||-100||14 h 42 m||Show|
3* MLB Money Line DESTROYER on Diamondbacks +130
Arizona is worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Padres. This looks like quite the pitching matchup with Luke Weaver of Arizona going up against Chris Paddack of San Diego. Paddack has the better numbers and the Padres are at home, but he was not sharp at all in his last start and he's due for some regression.
Weaver on the other hand comes in with a 2.25 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also 3-0 with a strong 2.38 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 4 road starts and owns a 2.28 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in 4 career starts vs San Diego.
Another thing is the Dbacks have a big edge offensively. Arizona is averaging 5.6 runs/game on the road, while the Padres are scoring a mere 3.4 runs/game at home. Take Arizona!
|05-20-19||Yankees v. Orioles +180||Top||10-7||Loss||-100||11 h 37 m||Show|
5* MLB AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Orioles +180
Big time value with Baltimore in Monday's series opener against the Yankees. While New York is the better team, no way should they be this big of a favorite on the road against a division rival. Easy spot here for the Yankees to come out flat, as they just closed a 4-1 homestand and swept two games at home against Baltimore last week.
Runs have been tough to come by for the Orioles, but I look for them to get the offense going. Yankees will have J.A. Happ on the mound and he's got a 4.44 ERA in 9 starts. Baltimore on the flip side of this will have Andrew Cashner on the mound. Cashner has a very strong 2.45 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in 3 home starts. My money is on him keeping the Yankees in check. Take Baltimore!
|05-19-19||Giants +154 v. Diamondbacks||3-2||Win||154||8 h 42 m||Show|
3* MLB NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants +154
This is just too good a price to pass up with San Francisco. The Giants are fresh off a 8-5 win on Saturday and I look for them to carry that momentum over to Sunday. Arizona has lost 8 of their last 13 and have been absolutely dreadful on Sunday.
Diamondbacks are 1-11 in their last 12 games played on Sunday. I don't know if they are staying out to late or what, but this team is not performing in this spot. Same goes for starter Robbie Ray, who is 0-5 in his last 5 starts on Sunday. Arizona is also just 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 5 or more in their previous game. Giants have won 9 of their last 13 in the series. Take San Francisco!
|05-19-19||Brewers -118 v. Braves||Top||3-2||Win||100||5 h 52 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Brewers -118
Great value here with Milwaukee as a small road favorite. Atlanta is getting a ton of love right now, as they have won 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall, but the Brewers are favored for a reason in this one. Milwaukee will have a massive edge on the mound, as they send out the red-hot Brandon Woodruff against the struggling Mike Foltynewicz.
Woodruff has a 1.06 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in his last 3 starts, all of which have ended up in Brewers wins. In fact, Milwaukee has won 7 of Woodruff's 9 starts on the season. As for Foltynewicz, he's 0-3 with a 8.01 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in 4 starts. All 4 of which the Braves have wound up losing. Take Milwaukee!
|05-18-19||Cubs +130 v. Nationals||2-5||Loss||-100||11 h 47 m||Show|
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs +130
Easy play on the Cubs at this price. Chicago has been one of the hottest teams in the league. Yesterday they roughed up Max Scherzer in a 14-6 win. Washington is just 4-8 in their last 12 as they continue to underperform in 2019.
No way I'm passing up on a team as talented as the Cubs when they are playing this well with a guy as hot as Jon Lester on the mound. Lester has a ridiculously good 1.16 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in 7 starts. He hasn't allowed a run in 3 straight starts and is facing a Nationals team that is just 3-7 on the season when up against a left-handed starter.
Washington is not hitting for a strong team average and that's worth noting. Lester is 12-2 in his last 14 starts vs a NL team that's hitting .245 or worse as a team. Nationals simply won't be able to keep pace with the Cubs offense in this one. Take Chicago!
|05-18-19||Brewers v. Braves -115||Top||3-4||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Braves -115
Love the value here with the Braves as a small home favorite against the Brewers. Atlanta comes in off a 12-8 win in the series opener and that was after they put up 10 runs on 14 hits in the finale against the Cardinals.
I look for that Braves offense to stay hot in this one. Milwaukee is sending out one of the better starters in Chase Anderson, but he's making his first start since 4/26, as he returns from the DL.
Atlanta will have Kevin Gausman on the rubber and he's coming off a strong start at Arizona, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings. Gausman comes in with a not so great 4.01 ERA in 4 home starts, but a lot of that is bad luck. Despite an ERA over 4, he's got a WHIP of just 0.892 WHIP. Take Atlanta!
|05-17-19||Giants +135 v. Diamondbacks||Top||0-7||Loss||-100||11 h 40 m||Show|
5* National League HEAVY HITTER of the MONTH on Giants +135
Really like the value here with San Francisco on the money line Friday night. While the Diamondbacks are off a 11-1 blowout win at home against the Pirates, Arizona is still just 4-7 in their last 11 games overall.
Diamondbacks might have been dealt a big blow in that loss with David Peralta forced to leave the game prematurely. While it doesn't appear to be serious, I would be shocked if Peralta played in this one and he's a huge part of that Arizona offense.
I also think that SF will be able to get their offense going in this one. Diamondbacks will have Merrill Kelly on the mound and he's not been great of late with a 6.06 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take San Francisco!
|05-17-19||Dodgers v. Reds +122||6-0||Loss||-100||8 h 10 m||Show|
3* MLB Vegas Money Line DESTROYER on Reds +122
Give me the Reds as a home dog against the Dodgers in this one. Cincinnati might be last in the NL Central, but they are playing well right now. Reds just won 2 of 3 at home against the re-hot Cubs and are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
I know the Dodgers are playing well, but starter Rich Hill has not been up to par in his first 3 starts. He's got a 4.20 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He was also really bad in his one road start against the Padres, giving up 3 runs no 7 hits in just 4 innings. He's served up 5 homers in just 15 innings, which really speaks volumes to his struggles right now.
Reds will have Anthony Desclafani, who has a strong 3.27 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 2 home starts. Reds are 5-0 in his last 5 starts and have won 6 of his last 7 starts vs the NL West. Take Cincinnati!
|05-16-19||A's -135 v. Tigers||Top||17-3||Win||100||2 h 10 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on A's -135
I got no problem laying a little juice with Oakland on the road in this one. While the A's are just 5-17 on the road this season, Detroit is one place I'm confident they can win at. In fact, Oakland is 12-1 against the Tigers at any park the last 3 years, which includes a perfect 7-0 record at Comerica Park.
Tigers have one of the worst offenses in the big leagues. They come in averaging just 3.4 runs/game and are hitting a mere .223 as a team. That drops down to 2.8 runs/game with a .213 average in games where they face a right-handed starter.
Not only will they be up against a righty in this one, they have to face a really good one. Oakland's Chris Bassitt has a 2.55 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in 4 starts this season.
Tigers are an awful 13-41 in their last 54 vs a team from the AL West, while the A's are a dominant 39-12 in their last 51 vs a team from the AL Central. Take Oakland!
|05-15-19||Rangers v. Royals +122||Top||6-1||Loss||-100||10 h 57 m||Show|
5* American League Money Line PLAY OF THE MONTH on Royals +122
Love the value here with Kansas City as a home dog against the Rangers. Royals finally got their offense going in yesterday's 11-5 win. I look for them to stay hot at the plate Against a Texas pitching staff that has allowed 10+ runs in 3 straight games.
Rangers have also been a horrible road team. After losing on Tuesday, they are now just 5-15 on the road this season. Texas has gone just 1-7 in their last 8 on the road vs a team with a losing record and have lost 7 of the last 10 starts by Mike Minor.
Royals on the other hand are 12-4 in their last 16 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Kansas City!
|05-15-19||Cubs +119 v. Reds||5-6||Loss||-100||8 h 40 m||Show|
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs +119
No way I'm passing up a chance to play the Cubs as a dog. Chicago won the series opener 3-1 on Tuesday. Cubs have won 3 in a row and are a dominant 21-5 over their last 26 games. I get Yu Darvish hasn't been great, but no way should the Reds be favored with the likes of Sonny Gray on the mound.
Gray has a respectable 3.92 ERA, but has not won a single one of his 8 starts and the Reds are just 2-6 in those outings. If he's not on his game, this Cubs offense will make him pay. It's also worth noting that Darvish has owned Cincinnati, with a 1.93 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 3 starts.
When the Cubs come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, they are a dominant 16-4 against the money line. Take Chicago!
|05-14-19||Padres +142 v. Dodgers||Top||3-6||Loss||-100||12 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Padres +142
Absolutely love the value here with San Diego at this price. I'm not saying the Dodgers shouldn't be favored at home with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but they are getting way too much respect in this one.
As good as Kershaw has been in his 5 starts, he's not the best starter going in this game. Chris Paddack of the Padres is putting up Cy Young type numbers to start the season. Paddack has a 1.55 ERA and 0.688 WHIP in 7 starts. San Diego has won 6 of his 7 starts, which includes a perfect 3-0 record on the road.
Padres were off Monday and this is a team that you want to back after a break. They are 12-3 in their last 15 following an off day. Take San Diego!
|05-13-19||Astros v. Tigers +146||Top||8-1||Loss||-100||9 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Tigers +146
Big time value here with Detroit as a big home dog against the Astros. No denying that the Astros are the better overall team, but the Tigers will have the better starter going in Monday's series opener.
Detroit will turn to Matt Boyd, who is off to a fantastic start to the 2019 season. Boyd has a 2.86 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in 8 starts. He's 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in 4 home starts and has a 2.37 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Astros will counter with Brad Peacock. While Peacock was great in his last start, that was at home against a bad Royals offense. Peacock has sub-par 4.59 ERA in 6 starts overall and owns an ugly 6.96 ERA in 2 road starts.
Tigers are a dominant 14-3 in Boyd's last 17 home starts. Take Detroit!
|05-12-19||Brewers +132 v. Cubs||1-4||Loss||-100||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* Brewers/Cubs Sunday Night Baseball NO-BRAINER on Brewers +132
Give me Milwaukee as a decently priced road dog all day against the Cubs. Chicago squeaked out a 2-1 win in 15-innings on Saturday, but the offense remained ice-cold and the Cubs shaky bullpen now goes into Sunday far from full strength.
I know the numbers are great for Brewers starter, Jhoylys Chacin, but he's been trending in the right direction. Chacin has a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Even more important to note is his past success against these Cubs. Chacin has a 2.81 ERA in 11 career starts against Chicago. In his last 5 starts at Wrigley Field, he's given a whopping 5 earned runs. Take Milwaukee!
|05-12-19||Rangers +195 v. Astros||Top||5-15||Loss||-100||4 h 38 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Rangers +195
I absolutely love the value here with Texas, as they are almost +200 on the money line in a game I give them a great shot to win. Astros have already secured a series win, as they have taken the first 3 games in the series, so it would be really easy for them to not come to the park 100% locked in today.
The other big key here is the Astros have a struggling Collin McCugh on the mound. They have lost 5 of his 8 starts in 2019 and he comes into this one wiht a 9.20 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 starts. It's also worth noting that most of his struggles have come at home. No way should Houston be this big a favorite with him starting. Take Texas!
|05-11-19||Angels v. Orioles +130||Top||7-2||Loss||-100||6 h 33 m||Show|
5* American League HEAVY HITTER of the MONTH on Orioles +130
Big time value here with Baltimore as a home dog on Saturday. I get the Orioles are not a great team, but no way should the Angels be this big of a road favorite with a guy like Matt Harvey on the mound. Harvey is a mere 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.376 WHIP in 7 starts. In his last start, he gave up 5 runs on 5 hits with just 1 strikeout in 4 2/3 innings.
Baltimore on the other hand will have Dylan Bundy on the mound and we know he's got the talent despite the not so great numbers. Key here is Bundy comes in red-hot with a 2.95 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The most recent being an absolute gem at home against the Rays, where he allowed just 3 hits over 7 1/3 shutout innings. Take Baltimore!
|05-11-19||Tigers +148 v. Twins||5-3||Win||148||4 h 38 m||Show|
4* MLB Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Tigers +148
I'll jump on Detroit in Game 1 of Saturday's double-header with the Twins. I get Minnesota is the better team. There's no arguing that. However, the starting pitching matchup in Game 1 is so heavily in favor of the Tigers, I just can't pass up on a play at this price.
Detroit is sending out Spencer Turnbull, who has a 2.31 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in his first 7 starts. He's been even better than that on the road, where he owns a 2.25 ERA. He also has a 1.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his last 3 starts. As for Twins starter, Michael Pineda, he has a 6.09 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in 7 starts. He has a 6.75 ERA in 4 home starts and a 7.05 ERA and 1.892 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Take Detroit!
|05-10-19||Braves +126 v. Diamondbacks||Top||2-1||Win||126||11 h 8 m||Show|
5* MLB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves +126
I just can't pass up a play on Atlanta at this price. The Braves will have Julio Teheran on the mound and have won 12 of his last 14 starts when they go off as a dog of +100 to +150. Atlanta has also gone 10-3 in Teheran's last 13 starts against a NL team scoring 5 or more runs/game.
Teheran has a not so great 4.63 ERA and 1.343 WHIP in his last 8 starts, but comes in with a 3.32 ERA and 0.947 WHIP with 19 strikeouts in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. Last time out he gave up just 2 hits over 6 shutout innings. He will be up against a Dbacks offense that has score 3 or fewer in 4 straight. Take Atlanta!
|05-10-19||Brewers +118 v. Cubs||7-0||Win||118||4 h 48 m||Show|
4* MLB NL Central PLAY OF THE WEEK on Brewers +118
Really like the value here with Milwaukee as a dog. I know the game is in Chicago and the Cubs are playing well, but Brewers have won 6 straight. While Jose Quintana has been red-hot, he got lit up by this high-powered Milwaukee offense earlier this season. Quintana lasted just 3 innings after serving up 8 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks.
Brewers will have veteran Gio Gonzalez on the mound and he's looked sharp in his first two starts of 2019. Gonzalez has only given up 3 runs with 9 K's in 10 1/3 innings. Cubs offense is pretty hit or miss and they come in hitting just .248 over their last 7 and .233 on the season at home. Take Milwaukee!
|05-09-19||Marlins +190 v. Cubs||1-4||Loss||-100||4 h 48 m||Show|
4* MLB Money Line NO-BRAINER on Marlins +190
The books have inflated the number here on Chicago to where it's just too good a price to pass up. Cubs have won 9 of their last 10, including each of the last 2 in the series, but Miami did win the opener and then has lost the last two on a walk-off homer. Marlins could just as easily be going for a 4-game sweep here.
Either way it's hard to trust Chicago at this price with a starter that has struggled as much as Yu Darvish. In his first 7 starts of 2019, Darvish owns a 5.79 ERA and 1.714 WHIP. He's also been especially bad at home, posting a 7.54 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 3 starts at Wrigley Field.
Marlins have won 12 of their last 18 against a starter who averages fewer than 5 innings/start and are 18-9 in their last 27 road games vs a starter who averages 2.75 or more walks/game. Take Miami!
|05-09-19||White Sox +220 v. Indians||Top||0-5||Loss||-100||3 h 38 m||Show|
5* AL Central Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on White Sox +220
This is just too good a price to pass up on Chicago. The White Sox had won the first two games of the series before losing a 5-3 on a 2-run homer in the bottom of the 9th yesterday. I get Cleveland is the better team and should be favored at home, but no way should they be this big of a favorite with the struggles they are having scoring runs.
Cleveland needed 12 hits to push across 5 runs and had just 3 runs going into the 9th. They had scored a total of 1 run in their previous 3 games combined and 2 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. As bad as the numbers are for Chicago starter Manny Banuelos, similar guys have kept this Indianas offense in check.
Chicago has some nice young bats and I think they can get to Indians starter Carlos Carrasco. He's made 7 starts and owns a 5.60 ERA and 1.330 WHIP. He's had a really tough time keeping the ball in the park, as he's already served up 8 homers and the win will be blowing out to center/right center at close to 20 mph. Take Chicago!
|05-08-19||Angels +111 v. Tigers||3-10||Loss||-100||8 h 6 m||Show|
3* MLB Money Line DESTROYER on Angels +111
I look for the Angles to win here on the road against the Tigers. LA has won 5 of their last 7, while the Tigers are just 3-7 in their last 10. Angels will also have southpaw Tyler Skaggs on the mound and he's got a strong 3.12 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 5 starts. LA has won 7 of his last 10 vs a team with a losing record and Detroit is a mere 1-6 in their last 7 vs a left-handed starter.
Tigers have also had a miserable time against teams from the AL West. They are a pathetic 14-42 in their last 56 vs that division. Angels are 18-3 in their last 21 vs AL team that is averaging 3.9 or less runs/game. Take Los Angeles!
|05-08-19||Nationals +180 v. Brewers||Top||3-7||Loss||-100||2 h 6 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Nationals +180
No way should Milwaukee be this big of a home favorite on Wednesday. Brewers are simply overvalued due to winning 5 straight. Brandon Woodruff will be starting for Milwaukee and while he's 4-1, he's owns a very sub-par 5.04 ERA and 1.480 WHIP. Very even matchup on the mound with Jeremy Hellickson going for the Nationals.
I see some hidden value with the fact that the Brewers have won the first 2 games of this series, as Washington has thrived in this spot. Nationals are 20-7 in their last 27 after losing the first 2 games of the series. Milwaukee has also dropped 6 of their last 8 when playing Game 3 of a series.
Also, I know the Washington offense has struggled, but Nationals are 30-13 in their last 43 in games following a 3-game stretch where they hit .200 or worse. Take Washington!
|05-07-19||Braves +135 v. Dodgers||Top||0-9||Loss||-100||11 h 10 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Braves +135
I think the books have made a huge mistake here pricing Atlanta as a big road dog against the Dodgers. Both teams will send out a talented left-handed starter, as Max Fried goes for the Braves and Hyun-Jin Ryu toes the rubber for Los Angeles.
The key here is the Braves have feasted on south paw starters this season. Atlanta is averaging 5.7 runs/game with a .274 average and .365 OBP in 9 games vs a left-handed starter. Dodgers on the other hand are only hitting .238 as a team in 13 games vs left-handed starters.
LA is also a mere 8-18 in Ryu's last 26 starts vs a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 after scoring 5 or more in their previous game. Take Atlanta!
|05-07-19||Giants +114 v. Rockies||14-4||Win||114||10 h 40 m||Show|
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants +114
Easy play here on San Francisco. Giants will have their ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound, who is coming off a great start at home against the Dodgers. Bumgarner allowed just 1 run on 4 hits with 8 strikeouts.
Just like hitters, pitchers are streaky and I think that we could see Bumgarner go on a nice run of quality starts. Hard to not like him here, as he's posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 3 road starts this season and owns a strong 3.12 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 31 career starts against the Rockies.
As for Colorado, they will have Antonio Senzatela on the mound and he's an average starter at best. He's got a 4.03 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 4 starts so far in 2019. Take San Francisco!
|05-06-19||Mariners +137 v. Yankees||3-7||Loss||-100||6 h 29 m||Show|
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Mariners +
The Mariners are definitely worth a look here as a big road dog against the Yankees. Seattle's Felix Hernandez has been better than anticipated of late and I like him to out-perform another old ace in C.C. Sabathia. Yankees are still without a bunch of their top guys and have not been producing at the plate of late.
Seattle got their offense going in a big way on Sunday, as they put up 10 runs on 12 hits in a blowout win at Cleveland. I look for those bats to stay hot and for the Mariners to win this one going away. Mariners are 14-5 in their last 19 off a win. Take Seattle!
|05-06-19||Giants +143 v. Reds||4-12||Loss||-100||1 h 31 m||Show|
4* MLB Early Bird NO-BRAINER on Giants +
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Giants. San Francisco has rallied late twice to beat the Reds in this series. Yesterday it was Brandon Crawford who hit a 2-run homer in the Top of the 9th to secure a 6-5 win (trailed 4-0 in the 1st inning).
Not only will SF be riding a wave of momentum, but losses like that are really tough to bounce back from. I think even more so when teams are forced to play an early game on a travel day (Cincinnati heading to California for a series against Oakland tomorrow). No way should the Giants be this big of a dog, especially with a very even matchup on the mound. Take San Francisco!
|05-05-19||Mets +137 v. Brewers||Top||2-3||Loss||-100||4 h 41 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Mets +
I just feel like there's too much value here with New York to pass up. These two are coming off a marathon 18-inning game on Saturday. Milwaukee won the contest 4-3 and while it's just one game, it feels a little worse than that in games that go that many extra innings.
I think we are going to see New York the more focused of the two in Sunday's game, as I think they will want this one a little more. Milwaukee has already secured the series by taking the first two and could be looking ahead to a bigger series against the Nationals.
Zach Davies has been great for the Brewers, but he's not someone that goes deep in games. He's also got a less than stellar 5.77 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Mets. New York also has a hot starter on the mound, as Jason Vargas owns a 1.93 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take New York!
|05-04-19||Red Sox v. White Sox +157||15-2||Loss||-100||11 h 18 m||Show|
4* MLB Money Line NO-BRAINER on White Sox +
The White Sox are definitely worth a look as a huge home underdog on Saturday. Chicago has split the first 2 games of the series and have won 5 of their last 7 overall. No way should the White Sox be this big of a dog on their home turf, especially with how today's two starters are throwing the rock.
Boston will send out Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 6.16 ERA and 1.532 WHIP in 6 starts. It gets even worse on the road, as Rodriguez has a 9.45 ERA and 2.251 WHIP over 3 road outings. Chicago will turn to Manny Banuelos. While he's only made 2 starts, he owns a 1.86 ERA in those two outings, giving up just 2 runs in 9 2/3 innings of work.
Red Sox are just a mere 2-8 in their last 10 as a road favorite of -125 or more and have lost 5 of their last 6 vs a left-handed starter. Take Chicago!
|05-04-19||Giants +124 v. Reds||Top||2-9||Loss||-100||11 h 17 m||Show|
5* National League Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants +
This is just too good a price to pass up with San Francisco. The Giants are coming off a thrilling 7-6 win on Friday, as they trailed 11-7 going into the 8th inning. They scored 3 in the 8th, 1 in the 9th and eventually the game-winning run in the 11th. That's going to be a tough loss for the Reds to bounce back from.
San Francisco will turn to Dereck Rodriguez and he's a perfect 3-0 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 3 road starts. Cincinnati will counter with Tanner Roark, who has struggled with 4.08 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 6 starts. Roark has really struggled with his command, walking 9 guys in his last 3 starts.
Giants are 7-1 in Rodriguez's last 8 road starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5, 4 of his last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 7 of his last 9 road starts overall. Take San Francisco!
|05-03-19||Dodgers v. Padres +148||4-3||Loss||-100||15 h 23 m||Show|
4* MLB NL West PLAY OF THE WEEK on Padres +
Love the value here with the Padres as a big home underdog against the Dodgers. I know LA has Kershaw on the mound and he's looked good in his first 3 starts, but it's never easy winning on the road inside your own division.
The Padres will have a pretty good starter of their own going, as they turn to Eric Lauer. He's got a strong 3.37 ERA in 3 home starts and even more important is that he's owned the Dodgers. Lauer is perfect 3-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 3 career starts against LA (all last year).
Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 at home vs a left-handed starter and have won 8 of their last 11 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take San Diego!
|05-03-19||Giants +147 v. Reds||12-11||Win||147||12 h 21 m||Show|
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Giants +
This is just too good a price to pass up with San Francisco. The Giants enter this series having just won 2 of 3 at home against the Dodgers and with the way the Reds are struggling to score it's hard to not like them in Friday's series opener.
Cincinnati has scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. They had just 1 run on 4 hits Wednesday and were shutout with another 4 hits on Thursday. San Francisco will turn to Tyler Beede, who has an impressive 1.99 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings in the minors. Beede got 2 starts last year at the big league level, so the nerves won't be a big issue this time around.
Reds are just 10-28 in their last 38 after scoring 1 run or less in their last game and 5-18 in their last 23 when coming in having hit .175 or worse over their last 3 games. Take San Francisco!
|05-02-19||Reds +168 v. Mets||0-1||Loss||-100||2 h 41 m||Show|
3* MLB Early Bird Money Line DESTROYER on Reds +
Yesterday we cashed in on the Reds +180 as our free pick and will not hesitate to fire back with Cincinnati as another big underdog on Thursday. It's a very similar scenario where we have the Mets getting a ton of love for the name they have on the mound and not the production that they are getting from that guy.
Noah Syndergaard is viewed as a top tier starter and is coming off a great 2018 season. However, he's not been good in 2019. Syndergaard has a 6.35 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in 6 starts and is trending in the wrong direction with a 8.40 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in his last 3 outings. He's also given up 4+ runs in 4 straight starts. Take Cincinnati!
|05-01-19||Indians v. Marlins +135||2-4||Win||135||11 h 1 m||Show|
4* MLB Money Line NO-BRAINER on Marlins +
If you only got to look at the numbers of the two starters in this game, almost everyone would be taking the Marlins. Instead, most will just see the Indians playing a bad team with their ace Corey Kluber on the mound and back Cleveland.
Kluber has not been good. He's got a 5.81 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in 6 starts and is not trending in the right direction. Last 3 starts, Kluber has a 7.98 ERA and 1.909 WHIP. On the flip side of this, Marlins' starter Caleb Smith has a 2.17 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in 5 starts overall with a 1.00 ERA and 0.722 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Miami!
|05-01-19||Yankees -115 v. Diamondbacks||Top||2-3||Loss||-115||8 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Yankees -
Arizona was able to take yesterday's series opener 3-1 behind a great outing from their ace Zack Greinke. It was a rare loss for New York, as they are 9-2 in their last 11. I look for the Yankees to have no problem bouncing back and securing a split of this short 2-game series.
New York will have the edge on the mound this time around, as they send out Masahiro Tanaka against Arizona's Merrill Kelly. Tanaka has a strong 3.60 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in 6 starts. Kelly has a solid 3.94 ERA, but an ugly 1.382 WHIP (walked 9 guys in his last 2 starts). In just his last 3 starts he owns a 5.17 ERA and 1.914 WHIP.
Yankees are 27-9 over the last 2 seasons on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 and a perfect 7-0 (home or away) when priced in that range this season. Take New York!
|04-30-19||Reds v. Mets +106||Top||3-4||Win||106||7 h 49 m||Show|
5* NL Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Mets +
I think it's worth going big on New York tonight. No way should the Mets be a home dog against a team like Cincinnati. I get the Reds have a promising young starter on the mound in Luis Castillo, but he's got a bad offense behind him.
The Reds as a team have a pathetic .213 batting average and a .280 on-base percentage. It gets even worse when they are matched up against a left-handed starter. Cincinnati is scoring just 3.2 run/game and hitting .197 as a team vs south paw starters. Mets will have lefty Jason Vargas on the mound and he's off back-to-back strong outings.
Reds are also a mere 19-40 (32%) in their last 59 road games when listed anywhere from +125 to -125. Take New York!
|04-29-19||Orioles +122 v. White Sox||3-5||Loss||-100||7 h 46 m||Show|
4* MLB Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK on Orioles +
Baltimore is an easy play for me on Monday. I get the Orioles aren't a very good team, but neither are the White Sox. Chicago has just 1 more win than Baltimore on the season. It's been all or nothing for the White Sox offense. They come in averaging 6.0 runs/game over their last 7, but that's because they put up 12 runs twice during this stretch. In their last 6 they have scored 4 or fewer 4 times.
I'm confident this won't be one of those outbursts for Chicago, as Baltimroe sends out one of the more underrated starters in the league right now in Jon Means. In 3 starts, Means has posted a sensational 2.08 ERA and 1.154 WHIP. That includes a start against these same White Sox, where he held Chicago to just 1 run on 4 hits with 6 K's in 5 innings of a 4-3 win. Take Baltimore!
|04-28-19||A's -111 v. Blue Jays||Top||4-5||Loss||-111||4 h 49 m||Show|
5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Oakland -
Easy play on Oakland at this price. The A's are going to be highly motivated after losing the first two games of the series and needing a win to avoid the sweep. First two games of the series the A's faced two of Toronto's better starters in Stroman and Sanchez.
This time they are up against Trent Thornton, who is 0-3 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.371 WHIP in 5 starts and is trending with a 9.23 ERA and 1.973 WHIP in his last 3 outings. On the flip side of this, Oakland will send out Chris Bassitt, who was outstanding in his first start on 4/22. Bassitt allowed just 2 hits and struck out 7 over 5 shutout innings.
A's have won each of Bassitt's last 5 starts, while the Blue Jays have lost each of Thornton's last 5 starts. Take Oakland!
|04-26-19||Rangers +155 v. Mariners||4-5||Loss||-100||12 h 10 m||Show|
4* MLB AL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Rangers +
Absolutely love the value here with the Rangers as a big road underdog against the Mariners. Seattle will have starter Yusei Kikuchi on the mound, but only for an inning or two, as they are going to make him an "opener" every now and then to help keep him fresh. No way should the Mariners be priced like this.
It all adds up to an ideal spot for Texas to snap their 4-game skid. Rangers have a lot of fire-power on the offensive side of the ball and Seattle's bullpen leaves a lot to be desired, even with likely top prospect Justus Sheffield ready to spell Kikuchi.
Seattle is just 1-6 over their last 7 home games and have lost 5 straight at home vs a right-handed starter. Take Texas!
|04-25-19||Indians +145 v. Astros||2-1||Win||145||10 h 12 m||Show|
4* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Indians +
This is just too good a price to pass up on Cleveland. The Indians will Trevor Bauer on the mound for this one and he's been sensational to start out 2019. Bauer comes into this start with a 2.20 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in 5 outings.
Houston has a big name on the mound in Gerrit Cole, but he's been off his game early. Cole is 1-3 and has a 5.22 ERA over 5 starts. Last time out he was torched for 9 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in a mere 4 1/3 innings of work at the Rangers. Indians bats have started to come alive and Jose Ramirez is coming off a big game, which just might snap a massive slump he's been in to start the year.
Indians are 6-2 in Bauers last 8 road starts, 4-1 in his last 5 series openers and 4-1 in his last 5 vs a team from the AL West. Take Cleveland!
|04-24-19||Dodgers v. Cubs +112||6-7||Win||112||9 h 22 m||Show|
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cubs +
This is a great price to get Chicago at home. The Dodgers are perceived to be the team to beat in the NL and are simply overpriced because of it. No way should LA be favored on the road with how much the starting pitching matchup favors the Cubs.
Chicago will send out veteran Cole Hamels, who is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in 4 starts. Hamels was outstanding in his last start, giving up just 3 hits with 0 walks and 8 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings.
Dodgers will turn to Walker Buehler, who has struggled to build on a promising rookie season. Buehler has a 2-0 record, but owns an ugly 5.40 ERA. He's also got a 6.00 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in 2 road starts. Take Chicago!
|04-23-19||Mariners v. Padres -130||3-6||Win||100||14 h 39 m||Show|
3* MLB Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Padres -
I think it's worth a shot here to back the Padres as a small home favorite. San Diego snapped their 6-game losing streak with a 4-3 win on Sunday and are going to be extremely motivated to carry over that success and close out this 8-game homestand on a positive.
Padres will have a decent arm on the mound, as they send out Nick Margevicius for his 5th start of 2019. While Margevicius has a 1-2 record, he's got a strong 3.60 ERA and 0.900 WHIP. He's really just had one poor outing, as he has given up 3 runs on 9 hits in 3 of his starts.
Padres had Monday off and that's worth noting, as they are 10-2 on the money line following an off day. Mariners are just 2-7 last 9 interleague road games and are 0-4 in their last 4 vs a tstarter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take San Diego!
|04-22-19||Twins +173 v. Astros||9-5||Win||173||11 h 53 m||Show|
4* MLB AL Money Line PLAY OF THE WEEK on Twins +
I just can't pass up on a play here with Minnesota at this price. You know there's going to be value fading the Astros with how big a public team they are and this is no exception. Just no way Houston should be laying this much juice in this specific matchup.
Astros will have Brad Peacock on the mound, who after a strong first start at Texas, was rocked for 5 runs on 7 hits in 5 inning at home by the A's. With the Twins swinging a pretty hot bat, I like Minnesota to put up a decent number here.
Twins will counter with Jake Odorizzi, who is coming off a great start against the Blue Jays and is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Astros. Take Minnesota!
|04-21-19||Diamondbacks -103 v. Cubs||1-2||Loss||-103||5 h 40 m||Show|
3* MLB Money Line DESTROYER on Arizona
Arizona snapped the Cubs 4-game winning streak with a 6-0 win on Saturday and I really like their chances of winning the series finale on Sunday. Cubs have been streaky this season and could see the offense struggling to snap out of their funk from yesterday's game.
Arizona's Robbie Ray has owned Chicago in his brief career. Ray has a 1.88 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 4 starts against the Cubs. He faced them twice last year and gave up just 1 run on 5 hits with 14 K's in 13 innings.
Chicago is turning to back to Tyler Chatwood, who is making his first start since getting the boot from the starting rotation last August. I'm just not convinced it's going to be any better for Chatwood, who finished up last year with a 5.30 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 24 appearance (20 starts). He's came out of the bullpen 4 times this year and owns a 6.00 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Take Arizona!
|04-20-19||Blue Jays +132 v. A's||10-1||Win||132||8 h 7 m||Show|
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Blue Jays +
Toronto took the series opener 5-1 on Friday and I like them to carry over that momentum to another win on Saturday. This is also an outstanding price to get the Blue Jays off a win with a hot starter like Matt Shoemaker on the mound. Shoemaker is 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 4 starts.
He will be facing an A's offense that is in quite the slump, scoring just 4 runs in their last 3 games combined. A stretch where they have only managed 14 hits. On top of that, Oakland will be starting Michael Fiers, who has a 7.06 ERA and 1.569 WHIP in 5 starts. Last two outings, Fiers has given up 12 runs on 14 hits and 5 walks in 6 2/3 innings of work.
Shoemaker is 13-3 against the money line in his last 16 starts vs an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse and the A's are 1-5 in their last 6 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take Toronto!
|04-19-19||Mets +139 v. Cardinals||5-4||Win||139||11 h 38 m||Show|
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Mets +
Really like the value here with New York at this price. I get the starting pitching matchup looks to favor St Louis with Adam Wainwright throwing well early and Mets' starter Jason Vargas having really struggled in his first two outings.
I just don't trust Wainwright at this point in his career and the Cardinals have not fared well against left-handed starters. St Louis is only averaging 3.7 runs/game and hitting .209 as a team vs a south paw starter. Take New York!
|04-18-19||Reds +150 v. Padres||4-1||Win||150||14 h 21 m||Show|
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds +
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Reds. San Diego is simply overpriced because of how lopsided this pitching matchup looks, as well as the Reds having one of the worst records in the game at 5-12 and have lost 4 straight.
Padres Chris Paddack has a 1.29 ERA and 0.857 WHIP, but he's yet to earn a win and has not completed more than 5 1/3 innings. Cincinnati's Tanner Roark has a 4.30 ERA and 1.705 WHIP in 3 starts, but has gotten better with each start. Last time out he only gave up 1 run in 5 1/3 innings. He's made 4 career starts against the Padres and is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.786 WHIP. Take Cincinnati!
|04-16-19||Pirates v. Tigers +105||Top||5-3||Loss||-100||8 h 10 m||Show|
5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Tigers +
No way should Detroit be an underdog at home against the Pirates. I get Pittsburgh is off to a solid 8-6 start, but this is not a playoff caliber team. Neither are the Tigers, but I think we are seeing the Pirates overvalued here in Game 1 due to the Pirates coming off a series win at Washington.
This is the third straight series on the road for Pittsburgh and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they lost both games at Detroit. I really like the Tigers in the opener, as they send out Matt Boyd, who has been sensational to start the year. Boyd has 29 strikeouts in just over 17 innings of work and has two games already where he's finished with double-digit K's.
Pirates have scored 2 or fewer 5 of their last 10, so it's an offense that can easily be held in check. Pittsburgh is also a mere 9-25 in their last 34 road games vs a left-handed starter and have lost 6 straight road starts with Joe Musgrove on the mound. Take Detroit!
|04-15-19||Rockies +153 v. Padres||Top||5-2||Win||153||12 h 7 m||Show|
5* MLB NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockies +
Big time value here with Colorado in Monday's series opener against the Padres. The Rockies are simply not as bad as their 4-12 record and I believe yesterday's 4-0 win against San Francisco could light a fire under this team. That victory snapped a 8-game losing streak.
Not exactly an easy spot here for San Diego, who just finished up a lengthy 10-game road trip with a loss to the Diamondbacks. Padres have just 1 win in their last 6 at home following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Another thing is the Padres will send out Joey Lucchesi, who is coming off a miserable start at SF. He gave up 7 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in just 4 innings. Lucchesi is a mere 3-12 in his last 15 starts vs a division opponent. Take Colorado!
|04-14-19||Phillies v. Marlins +159||Top||3-1||Loss||-100||4 h 47 m||Show|
5* MLB NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Marlins +
I absolutely love the value here with the Marlins in this one. Miami snapped a 5-game losing streak in a 10-3 win on Saturday. They had a season-high 18 hits, which is more than they had in their last 4 games combined.
Usually when a team snaps out of a slump like what the Marlins were in, they keep it going, at least for a few more games. With Vincent Velasquez on the mound for Philadelphia, I like their chances of staying hot that much more.
Phillies are just 7-20 in Velasquez's last 27 road starts, including a mere 1-7 record in his last 8 road starts vs a team with a losing record. Marlins have won 5 of Jose Urena's last 6 starts vs a division opponent. Take Miami!
|04-13-19||Cardinals v. Reds +118||Top||2-5||Win||118||13 h 37 m||Show|
5* NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds +
I really like the value here with Cincinnati. While both teams are riding winning streaks, I really think the series against Miami lit a fire under this Reds team. Cincinnati outscored the Marlins 21-1 and will now be playing with a swagger.
The offensive breakthrough was huge and I like their chances of staying hot in Mexico against veteran Adam Wainwright. Once one of the best arms in the big leagues, Wainwright has really fallen off in the latter stage of his career. He's made 2 starts in 2019 and has given up 5 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks. He just doesn't pitch well away from Busch Stadium.
Coming into this season, Wainwright had a 6.45 ERA in 32 road starts and a 3.35 ERA in 32 home starts. So far 2019 has held true to those numbers. He lasted just 4 innings, giving up 4 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks at Pittsburgh then shutdown the Padres at home. Look for the Reds to do some damage at the plate. Take Cincinnati!
|04-13-19||White Sox +157 v. Yankees||0-4||Loss||-100||7 h 30 m||Show|
3* MLB Early Bird Money Line SMASH on White Sox +
Chicago snapped a 5-game losing streak with a 9-6 win in yesterday's series opener against the Yankees, bringing home quite the payday for their backers, as they were close to a +200 dog. I like them to carry over that success with another win as a decently priced dog on Saturday.
Yankees have been decimated by injuries and the latest to join the list is catcher Gary Sanchez. I also have little to no trust in veteran starter C.C. Sabathia in his first start of 2019. White Sox have some really nice young talent at the plate and starter Ivan Nova has a 1.29 ERA on the road in 2019. Take Chicago!
|04-12-19||Brewers +135 v. Dodgers||Top||8-5||Win||135||14 h 5 m||Show|
5* MLB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers +
Love the value here with Milwaukee as a decently priced road dog against the Dodgers. It's been a rough start to the season for Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, but it's really only the long ball that's hurt him. He's not going to keep giving up 3 HRs per outing and I think the team confirming their commitment to him as a starter, might just be the confidence boost he needs to start pitching to his potential.
The Dodgers scored 7 runs in a loss on Thursday, but prior to that had scored 3 or fewer in each of their previous 3 games. Let's also not ignore just how potent this Brewers offense is. Even if Burnes isn't at his best, there's still a great chance Milwaukee ends up on top.
Brewers had yesterday off to get their minds right after being swept by the Angels and are an impressive 20-7 in their last 27 after an off day. They are also 23-9 in their last 32 off a loss and 11-4 in their last 15 vs a team with a winning record. Take Milwaukee!
|04-11-19||Indians -128 v. Tigers||4-0||Win||100||1 h 20 m||Show|
3* MLB Early Bird Money Line SMASH on Indians -
Cleveland should have no problem leaving Detroit with a win on Thursday. Indians ran into a bit of a buzz-saw in Tigers starter Matt Boyd on Wednesday, but had won 5 straight prior to that loss and I look for them to return right back to form.
Cleveland will send out Shane Bieber, who was impressive in his first start of 2019. Bieber allowed just 2 runs on 2 hits with 9 strikeouts in 6 innings of work. I think he's a guy to watch out for this season and should have no problem keeping this Tigers offense in check. On the flip side of this, I look for the Indians to be able to get on the board early against Detroit starter Spencer Turnbull. Take Cleveland!
|04-10-19||Mariners -140 v. Royals||6-5||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
4* MLB Money Line NO-BRAINER on Mariners -
I got no problem laying a little juice with the red-hot Mariners on the road against a bad team like the Royals, especially with the way Seattle is swinging the bats. The Mariners have scored 104 runs in 13 games. The next best is the Dodgers at 87 thru 12 games. Seattle has scored 6 or more runs in all but 1 game this season and have a ridiculous 56 hits in their last 4 games.
I don't see the offense cooling off in this one, as today's game should heavily favor the offenses. Temps will be in the high 70's with the wind blowing out to left field at 15-20 mph. On top of that, KC is sending out spot starter Heath Fillmyer, who doesn't figure to go too long and will be turning over things to a Royals bullpen that has an awful 8.07 ERA and 2.041 WHIP in 32 1/3 innings of work. Take Seattle!
|04-09-19||Brewers -121 v. Angels||8-11||Loss||-121||12 h 42 m||Show|
4* MLB Late Night NO-BRAINER on Brewers -
I'm not concerned at all with Milwaukee dropping the first game of the series to the Angels on Monday. Brewers had to travel way out west after just finishing up a huge home series with the Cubs the day before. I'm confident they bounce back with an easy win here.
Brewers clearly have the better offense and will benefit from the DH in this series. I look for that offense to have a big day at the plate against Matt Harvey. Harvey was torched for 8 runs on 10 hits in his last start at home against the Rangers.
Milwaukee counters with Freddy Peralta, who is coming off a masterful start at Cincinnati. Peralta allowed just 2 hits and struck out 11 over 8 scoreless innings of work. I expect more of the same against the struggling Angels offense. Take Milwaukee!
|04-09-19||A's v. Orioles +165||13-2||Loss||-100||9 h 41 m||Show|
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles +
Big time value here with Baltimore as a huge home dog against the A's. The Orioles responded in a big way after getting swept in a 3-game series by New York, taking the series opener against Oakland 12-4 on Monday. A's have now lost 4 straight and are simply getting too much love here in the middle of a lengthy road trip on the complete other side of the country.
Brett Anderson has pitched well for the A's, posting a 2.38 ERA in his first 2 starts. However, both those starts came at home and he wasn't nearly as sharp in his second start. Anderson has made 3 starts against the Orioles and his team has lost all 3, while he's posted a 7.54 ERA.
John Means will be making his first start for the Orioles after being used as a reliever early on. I've been impressed with what I have seen and expect Means to fair well in this one. Take Baltimore!
|04-08-19||A's -129 v. Orioles||4-12||Loss||-129||9 h 17 m||Show|
3* MLB Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on A's -
This is just too good a price to pass up with Oakland as a small road favorite against the Orioles. Baltimore was just swept at home by rival New York and have lost 4 straight overall. A's were also swept over the weekend, but that was at Houston and two of those defeats came by a single run.
I got a lot more confidence in Oakland bouncing back in the series opener on Monday. A's will send out Marco Estrada, who has a 2.76 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in 3 starts. He's also 9-3 with a 3.41 ERA in 17 starts vs the Orioles.
Oakland has gone 40-14 in their last 54 vs a team with a losing record, 25-10 in their last 35 off a SU loss and 47-22 in their last 69 vs a starter with a WHIP great than 1.30. Orioles are 11-42 last 53 during Game 1 of a series, including a 1-7 mark in their last 8 series openers with Andrew Cashner on the mound. Take Oakland!
|04-07-19||Yankees v. Orioles +173||15-3||Loss||-100||2 h 3 m||Show|
4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Orioles +
Big time value with Baltimore as a massive home dog against division rival New York. Yankees have won the first two in the series, so we should get a big effort here from the Orioles to avoid the sweep.
The even bigger key here is the guy Baltimore has on the mound. David Hess was really good in his first start of 2019. He had 8 strikeouts over 6 1/3 scoreless innings and didn't allow a single hit while he was out there. If the Orioles weren't so bad last year and Hess was a little bigger name, no way would the Orioles be priced like this. Have to take a shot here with the home team. Take Baltimore!
|04-06-19||Cubs v. Brewers -115||Top||14-8||Loss||-115||10 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Brewers -
I can't believe how much respect the Cubs are still getting from the books with how bad they have been to start out 2019. Chicago is 1-6 and while the offense is producing at a decent level, the pitching has been atrocious. After giving up 13 runs on 15 hits in yesterday's series opening loss, the Cubs now own a 7.85 ERA and opposing teams are hitting a ridiculous .321 against them.
Hard to see it getting any better against this loaded Brewers lineup. Lefty Cole Hamels will get the start for Chicago and he was not good in his first outing. Hamels gave up 5 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 5 innings of work at Texas. Milwaukee will turn to Corbin Burnes, who while giving up 4 runs in 5 innings, showed some promise with 12 strikeouts to just 1 walk. Cubs are a team that will swing and miss a lot.
Brewers are 20-6 in their last 26 at home vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.3, 22-7 in their last 29 vs the NL Central and 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs a left-handed starter. Take Milwaukee!
|04-05-19||A's v. Astros -151||Top||2-3||Win||100||9 h 36 m||Show|
5* MLB AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Astros -
Now is the time to jump on the Astros. Houston has gotten off to a slow start, as they are just 2-5 in their first 7 games. and have just one win since beating the Rays on Opening Day. A big reason they struggled is because they opened the season with 7 straight on the road.
This will be their home opener and I could see them lighting up the scoreboard in their home park. They also have a strong starter going in Collin McHugh. He had 9 strikeouts in 5 innings in start No. 1 and only gave up 2 runs on 3 hits. A's have won 5 of 6, but 4 of those came against lefty starters, which they are better equipped to face. Oakland only scoring 3.2 runs/game and hitting .213 vs right-handed starters. McHugh also owns a strong 3.02 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in 11 career starts against the A's (9-2 team record). Take Houston!
|04-04-19||Nationals +118 v. Mets||4-0||Win||118||7 h 31 m||Show|
4* NL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Nationals +
Most will be quick to back the red-hot Mets as a small home favorite with Thor (Noah Syndergaard) on the mound, but I think the value here is clearly with the Nationals. These two teams actually opened up the season against one another. New York won 2 of 3.
The Nationals will be out for some payback, including starter Stephen Strasburg, who faced Syndergaard in Game 2 of that previous series. Both gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings. Strasburg owns a 3.00 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 18 starts vs the Mets. New York has only won 5 of Thor's 13 starts against Washington and Syndergaard has a career ERA of 3.65 in the series.
Nationals are 13-3 in Strasburg's last 16 road starts against a team with a winning record and are a perfect 7-0 in his last 7 road starts against the Mets. Take Washington!
|04-03-19||Astros v. Rangers +183||0-4||Win||183||9 h 18 m||Show|
4* MLB Money Line VEGAS INSIDER on Rangers +
This is just too good a price to pass up with a division dog. Houston is considered one of the best teams in the league, but are off to just a 2-4 start, as the offense is not producing at the level expected. Astros are scoring just 2.5 runs/game and have been held to 2 or fewer in 4 of their 6 games.
So while they will have one of their better starters in Gerrit Cole on the mound, no way should they be this big of a favorite with how they are swinging the bats. Texas is 3-2 to start the year and just won 6-4 yesterday with Houston starting Verlander. Rangers offense has carried them, as they are scoring 6.0 runs/game.
I know Mike Minor wasn't very good in his first start, but in his last 3 starts against the Astros he he completed at least 6 innings and gave up 3 or fewer earned runs. Take Texas!
|04-02-19||Mets v. Marlins +120||6-5||Loss||-100||8 h 28 m||Show|
3* MLB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Marlins +
We came up short with the Marlins on Monday, but will go right back to them on Tuesday. Miami ended up losing 7-3, but had a 3-2 advantage going into the 7th and were tied 3-3 going into the 9th.
I just don't trust this hot start by New York and I certainly wouldn't want to be laying this much juice with Mets starter Jason Vargas. He was just 7-9 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 20 starts last year. I just don't see him getting a whole lot better, as he's now 36 and on the final straw of his big league career.
Jose Urena struggled in his first start against the Rockies, but I like his potential and he has posted a strong 3.17 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Mets. Take Miami!
|04-01-19||Mets v. Marlins +130||7-3||Loss||-100||8 h 38 m||Show|
4* MLB Situational DOG OF THE WEEK on Marlins +
Really like the value here with Miami as a home dog against division rival New York. The Mets just took 2 of 3 at Washington and I just think it has them overpriced in the opener against the Marlins. Miami just split their 4-game series with the Rockies by winning the final two.
Everyone expects the Marlins to be bad and chances are they will be, but everyone is playing hard this early in the season. For me, I really like the potential of today's starter Caleb Smith. He was having a strong rookie season before needing left shoulder surgery. He's got swing and miss stuff, as he had 88 strikeouts in 77 1/3 innings of work. He is coming off a dazzling spring, where he had 19 strikeouts to just 1 walk in 13 1/3 innings. Take Miami!
|03-31-19||Rockies -150 v. Marlins||Top||0-3||Loss||-150||4 h 31 m||Show|
5* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockies -
Colorado should have no problem bouncing back from Saturday's loss with another win over the Marlins. Rockies had won the first two in the series by a combined score of 12-4 and simply are the better team. Colorado will at worst be in the Wild Card race and could push the Dodgers in the NL West. Miami on the other hand is going to be one of the worst teams in the league and likely the worst in the NL.
I know Jon Gray didn't have the best season a year ago, but he's just a year removed from going 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA in 20 starts. He's 32-23 over their last 3 seasons. He's pitched well in his 2 starts at Marlins Park (3.86 ERA) and I could see him completely shutting down this Miami offense.
On the flip side, even with the loss of Murphy, this is still a very potent Colorado offense an one that should be able to take advantage of starter Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara had major control problems last year (13 walks in his last 3 starts of 2018) and those same control problems were there this spring.
Even with yesterday's loss the Rockies are 20-7 in their last 27 against a team from the NL East. They have also gone 12-4 over Gray's last 16 starts. Marlins are 3-8 last 11 off a win and 5-16 in their last 21 in Game 4 of a series. Take Colorado!
|03-30-19||Cardinals +122 v. Brewers||2-4||Loss||-100||11 h 4 m||Show|
3* Cards/Brewers NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Cardinals +
St Louis rebounded from a loss on Opening Day with a 9-5 win on the back of 3 home runs from their new slugger Paul Goldschmidt. It could have been a lot worse, as the Cardinals left 13 guys on base. I just like their offense to stay hot in this one.
Not to mention the Cardinals have a very under the radar starter going in Dakota Hudson, who posted a 2.63 ERA over 26 appearances last year out of the pen and is fresh off a big spring in which he posted a 1.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Take St Louis!
|03-30-19||Braves v. Phillies -131||Top||6-8||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
5* MLB NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Phillies -
This is just too good a price to pass up on Philadelphia at home with Nick Pivetta on the mound against the Braves. That's because Pivetta has simply owned Atlanta in his career to this point. He's 4-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 8 starts.
On top of that, the Braves are sending out Bryse Wilson, who has made just 1 big league start. I just think this is a tall task for the 21-year-old on the road, especially with how talented this Phillies lineup is. Philadelphia put up 10 runs in the opener and that was with their new price free agent Bryce Harper going 0-3 with 2 strikeouts. I look for Harper to have a big day here and for the Phillies to win this one going away. Take Philadelphia!
|03-29-19||Giants v. Padres -148||1-4||Win||100||12 h 8 m||Show|
3* MLB Late Night Money Line SMASH on Padres -
Padres took the season opener against the Giants on Thursday and I see no reason why they don't improve to 2-0 with another win on Friday. San Francisco has really fallen off the map the past couple seasons, while there's a renewed hope in San Diego with the addition of Manny Machado.
Giants might just have one of the worst offenses in the league and it showed in Game 1, as they were shutout and managed just 5 hits. I look for them to struggle to score again against Joey Lucchesi, who made 2 starts against the Giants last year and gave up just 4 runs in 11 innings with 17 strikeouts and just 1 walk.
Derek Holland will go for SF and he faced the Padres 5 times last year, never making it past the 5th inning. He allowed 15 runs and walked 9 in just 24 2/3 innings. Take San Diego!
|03-28-19||Braves v. Phillies -174||Top||4-10||Win||100||7 h 12 m||Show|
5* MLB Opening Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Phillies -
There was going to be a ton of excitement surrounding this season for the Phillies even before they landed Bryce Harper. Philadelphia is all-in for 2019 and I'm expecting a playoff-like atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday. Keep in mind Atlanta is the defending champs, so they come in as the team to beat in the NL East.
You also have to love that the Phillies will have Aaron Nola on the mound, who is a legit Cy Young contender. Nola has owned the Braves, going 7-3 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 12 starts. That includes a 5-1 record in 6 home starts against Atlanta. Phillies as a team are 22-6 in Nola's last 28 home starts and 12-4 in his last 16 vs a division opponent.
Julio Teheran will take the mound for the Braves and he's got just a 3.67 ERA in 22 career starts vs the Phillies. In his last 3 starts at Citizens Bank Park, he's given up 12 runs on 14 hits in 14 2/3 innings of work. Take Philadelphia!
|10-28-18||Red Sox v. Dodgers -135||Top||5-1||Loss||-135||6 h 18 m||Show|
5* LATE INFO INSIDER on Dodgers
No analysis on late info insiders due to time restrictions, but they factor in announced lineups and weather conditions. These profitable situations are only available to long term subscribers.
|10-24-18||Dodgers +135 v. Red Sox||2-4||Loss||-100||9 h 26 m||Show|
4* Dodgers/Red Sox World Series VEGAS INSIDER on Dodgers +
I'm confident we are going to be handicapping Friday's Game 3 with this series tied 1-1. The Dodgers let one get away from them in Game 1 and will not make that same mistake in Game 2.
Kershaw just didn't show up in Game 1, but this time it will be LA's offense that steals the show. David Price takes the mound for Boston and while he pitched great in his last start of the ALCS against the Astros, his previous two outings, both at home, were not good. In those two starts he gave up 7 runs on 8 hits, failing to complete 5 innings in either outing.
Price is just 2-10 against the money line in his last 12 playoff starts, while the Dodgers are 7-1 in Ryu's last 8 starts on normal rest, 4-1 in his last 5 off a loss and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 5 or more runs. Take Los Angeles!