Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-13-19 | Giants v. Brewers -117 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Brewers -117 We played and won on San Francisco as a big road dog in Friday's series opener at Milwaukee. In large part because of the value we were getting with the Giants. Now it's the Brewers who are showing big time value as a small home favorite in a big bounce back spot at home. Giants are getting love because they will have Madison Bumgarner on the mound, but he's struggled away from home. Bumgarner is just 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 8 road starts. Brewers will counter with Zach Davies, who is 7-2 with a strong 3.07 ERA in 18 starts. Going back to last year, Giants are 8-20 in Bumgarner's last 28 road starts. Brewers are 33-15 in their last 48 when revenging a home loss as a favorite. Take Milwaukee! |
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07-12-19 | White Sox +173 v. A's | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
5* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE MONTH on White Sox +173 Easy play here on Chicago as a massive road dog against the A's on Friday. You might be thinking White Sox starter Ivan Nova is a guy you want to fade, given he's just 4-7 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 18 starts. However, Nova went into the break with a strong 3.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also 2-0 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in 4 starts vs the A's and Chicago is 5-1 this season when he starts as a dog of +150 or more. White Sox are also 4-1 in Nova's last 5 starts to open a series. Take Chicago! |
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07-12-19 | Giants +173 v. Brewers | 10-7 | Win | 173 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Money Line NO-BRAINER on Giants +173 Absolutely love the value here with San Francisco as a massive road dog against the Brewers in the first game back from the All-Star break for both teams. These two went into the break headed in opposite directions. San Francisco was playing some of their best baseball, winning 6 of 7, which included a 3-game sweep at San Diego and taking 2 of 3 against St Louis at home. Brewers on the other hand have lost 5 of 6. Just hard to trust Milwaukee in this spot at this price, as they only send out Chase Anderson, who is just 3-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.288 WHIP in 12 starts. Anderson also owns a not so great 4.91 ERA in 8 starts vs San Fran. Giants are 7-3 in their last 10 series openers and the Brewers are 2-6 in their last 8 to open a series and 1-5 in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take San Francisco! |
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07-12-19 | Nationals v. Phillies +125 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Phillies +125 This is just too good a price to pass up on the Phillies at home. No question the Nationals were one of the hottest teams in the league going into the All-Star break, but Philadelphia is a rock-solid 27-17 at home this season. As good as Washington has been playing, they are just 2-6 in their last 8 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Phillies will send out Nick Pivetta. While his numbers aren't great, Philadelphia has won each of his last 4 home starts and are 12-5 in his last 17 when he takes the mound in Game 1 of a series. Take Philadelphia! |
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07-11-19 | Astros -131 v. Rangers | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -131 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
5* MLB - AL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Astros -131 There might be some that are hesitant to back the Astros because they will be starting Framber Valdez, who is a mere 1-2 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in 4 starts. Valdez does have a a much more respectable 4.57 ERA on the season, as he has also made 14 relief appearances. Keep in mind this is also the same guy that had a sensational 2.19 ERA over 5 starts and 3 relief appearances last year. The price is simply too good to pass up. Houston is 70-32 as a road favorite of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons and are a dominant 20-8 this year as a favorite of -100 to -150 (home & away). Not to mention they are 26-7 vs other AL West teams this season. Take Houston! |
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07-09-19 | National League v. American League -108 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
5* MLB - All-Star Game VEGAS INSIDER on American League -108 When you factor in just how dominant the AL has been in this All-Star Game, this is just too good a price to pass up. American League has won 6 straight and are 24-6-1 in the last 31 meetings. Not to say the NL roster doesn't have great players, I just think top to bottom the AL is hands down the better team. Take the American League! |
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07-07-19 | Brewers v. Pirates +105 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pirates +105 Pittsburgh should have no problem here going into the All-Star break with a win at home against the Brewers. Milwaukee has not been playing well and likely need some time off to get back on track. Brewers have lost 4 of their last 5. After scoring just 2 runs on Saturday, Milwaukee has scored 2 or fewer in 3 of their last 4. Hard to see them snapping out of that funk against the red-hot arm of Pirates starter Joe Musgrave. He's got a 0.56 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in his last 3 starts. While the Brewers are struggling to score, Pittsburgh comes in averaging 7.3 runs/game and are hitting .333 as a team over their last 7. Pirates are 8-2 in their last 10 at home and 7-3 in their last 10 following a win. Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 5 or more runs and 1-4 in Anderson's last 5 road starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Pittsburgh! |
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07-07-19 | Phillies -103 v. Mets | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Phillies -103 Great spot and price here to jump on Philadelphia with ace Aaron Nola on the mound. Nola got off to a really disappointing start in 2019, but he seems to have figured things out headed into the All-Star break. Nola has a 0.39 ERA and 0.696 in his last 3 starts. That includes a recent start against these Mets, where he allowed just 1 hit over 7 scoreless innings. Phillies have won 6 of Nola's last 7 road starts. New York on the other hand is 2-8 in his last 10 vs a division foe and 1-8 in their last 9 vs a right-handed starter. Take Philadelphia! |
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07-07-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -154 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Money Line NO-BRAINER on Blue Jays -154 Really like Toronto to cash in a win here at home against the Orioles on Sunday. Blue Jays are going to be extra motivated to avoid another loss going into the break and being the first team to get swept by the Orioles this season. Toronto's offense was held in check the first two games of the series in large part to two great starting pitching efforts by Bundy and Cashner. Prior to scoring just 1 run the last 2 games the Blue Jays offense was rolling, scoring 6 or more runs in 8 straight games. I look for them to get back on track against Baltimore starter Asher Wojciechowski, who has not been good when given a chance at the big league level. His only other start of 2019 came on July 2nd at Tampa and he allowed 4 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in 5 1/3 innings. Look for the Blue Jays to score early and often. Take Toronto! |
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07-06-19 | A's v. Mariners +125 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 125 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
5* MLB - AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Mariners +125 This is the ideal spot for Seattle to snap out of their funk and get a big win at home against division rival Oakland. Mariners will send out Marco Gonzales for this one and he's trending in the right direction with a 3.78 ERA in his last 3 starts. Even more important is Gonzales' strong track record against the A's, as he's 3-1 with a 3.81 ERA in 5 career starts. Oakland counters with Chris Bassitt, who has an ERA north of 4.00 in his last 3 starts and is 0-3 in 5 starts (1-4 team record) against the Mariners. Bassit faced Seattle back in June and gave up 4 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 5 2/3 innings of a 9-2 loss. Gonzalez was the opposing starter, and allowed just 1 earned run in 7 innings. Mariners are 17-8 in Gonzales' last 25 starts with a money line of -125 to +125. A's are 1-6 in Bassit's last 7 during Game 2 of a series and 0-6 in his last 6 starts on Saturday. Take Seattle! |
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07-06-19 | Phillies +145 v. Mets | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies +145 Not only are we getting an excellent price here on the Phillies, this is an ideal spot to fade the reeling Mets. New York gave up 5 runs in the 9th inning to blow a gem by deGrom in Friday's 7-2 loss. The Mets are now 2-9 in their last 11. Mets offense has gone ice cold and will be up against Jake Arrieta, who despite his current form always seems to pitch well against the Mets. Arrieta has a 3.09 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 14 career starts vs New York. Phillies are a perfect 6-0 in Arrieta's last 6 after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. Mets are 1-7 in their last 8 off a loss and just 3-8 in Syndergaards last 11 starts vs a team that scored 5 or more last time out. Take Philadelphia! |
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07-06-19 | Indians v. Reds +115 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Reds +115 The red-hot Cincinnati Reds are worth a look here as a home dog against the Indians. Cincinnati just took 3 of 4 at home against division rival Milwaukee and will be ready to roll against their in-state rivals. Reds pitching has been outstanding of late. Cincinnati Shutout the Brewers in the final 2 games of the series. Reds will turn to Anthony Desclafani for this one and he's got a strong 3.37 ERA in 6 home starts. Desclafani is also fresh off a great outing at home against the Cubs, allowing just 5 hits and 1 walk over 6 shutout innings. Indians will turn to Shane Bieber. He's off a strong outing as well, but the Indians are just 1-4 n his last 5 following a Quality Start. Reds are 9-2 in their last 11 at home and 5-1 in Desclafani's last 6 interleague starts. Take Cincinnati! |
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07-05-19 | Padres +177 v. Dodgers | 3-2 | Win | 177 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Padres +177 San Diego is worth a shot at this price. Dodgers are way overvalued right now. LA has won 9 straight at home and just swept their short 2-game series against Arizona. The thing is, Dodgers could have easily lost both of those games. Both games they trailed 4-3 going into the bottom of the 9th and both times they found a way to win 5-4. With the All-Star break just a few days away, I also think LA could have a difficult time staying focused. I know Kershaw is going for the Dodgers, but the key here is Eric Lauer and his history of shutting down the LA offense. Lauer is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 4 career starts vs the Dodgers. Take San Diego! |
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07-05-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -121 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
5* MLB - AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays -121 As difficult as it may be to back Toronto with Aaron Sanchez on the mound, I like Sanchez to deliver the goods and for the Blue Jays to secure an easy win at home against division rival Baltimore. Orioles are simply the ideal team to fade on the road, no matter who is on the mound for the opposing team. Baltimore is 14-30 away from home this season, where they are getting outscored by 1.7 runs/game. Let's also not overlook how poor Baltimore starter Dylan Bundy has been of late. He's 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.884 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Orioles are just 4-12 in his 16 starts this season. O's have also dropped 12 straight when Bundy starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Toronto! |
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07-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates +107 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Pirates +107 Pittsburgh comes in off a loss to the Cubs Thursday, but 10-4 in their last 14 overall. I just love the value here with the Pirates as a home dog against division rival Milwaukee. While Pittsburgh is surging back into the thick of the NL Wild Card race (only 3 games back), the Brewers are going into the All-Star break in a bit of a funk. Milwaukee has lost 3 straight and were shutout in each of the last 2 games at Cincinnati. It can take a while of an offense to snap out of a slump like this. It will be that much tougher against Steven Brault, who not only has a 2.30 ERA in his last 3 starts, but owns a 2.92 ERA in 7 career starts against the Brewers. Take Pittsburgh! |
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07-04-19 | Indians -117 v. Royals | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Indians -117 Great value here with Cleveland as a small road favorite against the Royals. Indians are playing well headed into the All-Star break. They have already won the first two games in the series and are 8-3 in their last 11 overall. Royals have lost 3 straight and are just 1-6 in their last 7. Cleveland will send out Zach Plesac, who isn't a familiar name so he doesn't get the love as some of their other starters. However, he's got a 3.61 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in 7 starts. Royals counter with Homer Bailey and his 4.87 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 17 starts. Bailey also has a 5.03 ERA in 10 career starts against the Indians. Take Cleveland! |
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07-04-19 | Brewers v. Reds +120 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 120 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds +120 Cincinnati is worth a look here as a home dog. Reds have won 4 of 6 and have scored 5 or more in 4 of those games. No way should they be a dog here at home with the likes of Luis Castillo on the mound. Castillo is one of the best starters in the game. He's 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in 17 starts. He's got a 2.08 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 9 home starts. Milwaukee will send out Brandon Woodruff, who has a 4.29 ERA in 7 road starts and an ugly 8.68 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Reds. Brewers are just 1-5 in their lat 6 on the road and 1-4 in their last 5 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Reds are 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning record and 10-4 in Castillo's last 14 at home in this spot. Take Cincinnati! |
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07-04-19 | Marlins +179 v. Nationals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Early Bird ANNIHILATOR on Marlins +179 As tough as it can be to back Miami, this is just too good a price to pass up with the Marlins on the 4th of July. It's all about who Miami has on the mound. Elieser Hernandez has been really strong in his 4 starts, posting a 3.63 ERA and 0.985 WHIP. I also think it's important to note that this is not the same pathetic Marlins' offense that we saw the first couple months of the season. Miami is averaging 4.9 runs/game over their last 7 and will be up against a starter they can attack in Anibal Sanchez., who is just 4-6 in 15 starts. Sanchez owns a 1.326 WHIP on the season and Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 vs a starter with a WHIP more than 1.30. Take Miami! |
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07-03-19 | Indians v. Royals +149 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Royals +149 Kansas City is worth a look here as a big home dog against division rival Cleveland. The Indians have no business being this big a favorite with how poorly Mike Clevinger was in his first start back from the IL. Clevinger failed to get out of the 2nd inning at Baltimore, as he was pulled after giving up 7 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks. I just think it's going to take a few starts before he's back to anywhere close to his typical form. Royals will counter with one of their stronger starters in Danny Duffy, who is coming off back to back strong starts. Duffy first held the Twins to just 3 runs in 8 innings and then limited the Blue Jays to just 3 runs in 6 1/3 on the road. Take Kansas City! |
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07-03-19 | Tigers v. White Sox -130 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on White Sox -130 Easy play here on the White Sox at home against the Tigers. Detroit is an easy fade, especially on the road. Tigers are having a miserable time scoring runs. They have scored a mere 11 runs in their last 5 games and that's with 7 of them coming in 1 game. Every other game they scored exactly 1 run. You might think this would be a good spot for them against a guy making his first ever big league start. However, Dylan Cease is one of Chicago's top prospects and definitely has the goods to keep this Detroit offense in check. White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 vs a left-handed starter and Detroit will be sending out struggling southpaw Daniel Norris, who is a mere 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in 14 starts. Take Chicago! |
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07-02-19 | Cardinals v. Mariners +125 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 125 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
5* MLB - Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK on Mariners +125 Huge value here with Seattle as a relatively big home dog against the Cardinals. Mariners come in having lost 4 straight, but no way should St Louis be getting this much love. Cardinals are just 1-5 in their last 6 and will send out the struggling Jack Flaherty, who has a awful 7.41 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 6.68 ERA and 1.663 WHIP in 7 road starts this season. Cardinals have lost 8 of Flaherty's last 11 road starts and are just 1-5 in his last 6 interleague outings. Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 at home. Solid system in play here on Seattle. Home teams that are hitting .190 or worse over their last 5 games and are facing another cold-hitting team that is hitting .230 or worse over their last 20 are 43-17 (72%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. Take Seattle! |
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07-02-19 | Twins v. A's +112 | 6-8 | Win | 112 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on A's +112 Easy play here on the A's as a home dog against the Twins. Oakland has really been playing well the last month. The A's come in having won 10 of their last 13 and are I don't see them slowing down the final week before the All-Star break. Minnesota is a top tier team, but they aren't exactly playing great right now. Twins have lost 6 of their last 11 and just lost a series on the road to the White Sox. Minnesota is getting love here with Jake Odorizzi on the mound, but he's got a 6.46 ERA and 1.566 WHIP in his last 3 starts and the Twins have lost 9 of his last 12 road starts vs a team with a winning record. A's will counter with Daniel Mengden, who returned to the rotation in style with 6 shutout innings at St Louis. A's have won 6 of his last 7 starts and are 7-3 in his last 10 at home. Take Oakland! |
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07-01-19 | Brewers v. Reds +104 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds +104 Easy play here on the Reds at home in Monday's series opener against the Brewers. Cincinnati just took 2 of 3 at home against the Cubs over the weekend and scored 14 runs in the process. Brewers also won their series at home over the weekend against Pittsburgh, but they managed just 7 run in those 3 games. It continued Milwaukee's struggles at the plate. Brewers have scored 4 or fewer runs now in 6 straight games. Won't be easy getting back on track against Reds' starter Tyler Mahle, who has a strong 3.29 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 5 home starts. Mahle also owns a 2.53 ERA in 2 career starts (both last year) against the Brewers. Milwaukee is sending out Adrian Houser, who has made 3 starts and it hasn't been pretty. Houser owns a 9.00 ERA and 2.500 WHIP, as he's given up 8 runs on 15 hits and 5 walks in a mere 8 innings of work. Take Cincinnati! |
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06-30-19 | Cardinals +109 v. Padres | 5-3 | Win | 109 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Cardinals +109 Easy play here on the Cardinals as a road dog against the Padres. St Louis will send out Miles Mikolas, who is trending in the right direction. Mikolas has a mere 4.33 ERA in 16 starts overall, but has a strong 3.37 ERA in his last 3 and is coming off two really strong outings. St Louis has gone 12-3 in Mikolas' last 15 starts after a team loss in his last start. Cardinals are also a strong 14-6 in Mikolas' last 20 road starts and 10-3 in their last 13 during game 3 of a series. Take St Louis! |
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06-30-19 | Cubs v. Reds +117 | 6-8 | Win | 117 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Reds +117 Really like the value here with Cincinnati as a home dog against division rival Chicago. Cubs are simply getting too much respect here with Jon Lester on the mound, as he has really struggled on the road. Lester has an ugly 5.82 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in 6 road starts. Reds counter with Anthony DeSclafani who struggled last time out at Milwaukee, but the start before held the Astros to just 1 run in 5 1/3 inning at home. Cincinnati as a team is 5-1 in their last 6 at home and have won 7 of their last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take Cincinnati! |
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06-30-19 | Royals +117 v. Blue Jays | Top | 7-6 | Win | 117 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas Insider Top Play on Royals +117 Kansas City is worth a look here as a road dog against the Blue Jays on Sunday. Royals are going to be highly motivated here after losing the first two game of the series. I also think it's worth a shot here to fade Toronto starter Aaron Sanchez at this price. Sanchez is a mere 3-10 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.702 WHIP in 17 starts overall. He's 0-3 with an awful 15.75 ERA and 2.667 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Sanchez allowed at least 7 runs in all 3 of those outings. Take Kansas City! |
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06-29-19 | Cardinals +121 v. Padres | Top | 2-12 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
5* MLB - Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Cardinals +121 Absolutely love the value here with St Louis as a decently priced road dog against the Padres on Saturday. San Diego won the series opener 3-1 on Friday, but that was a big flat spot for St Louis in their first game on the west coast after a long homestand. I look for a much more focused and energized Cardinals team on Saturday and they got just the guy on the mound to get them out of their funk. Dakota Hudson is 6-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 15 starts. He's trending even better with a 2.25 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last 3. Guy has made 8 straight starts where he's allowed 3 or fewer runs and went at least 6 innings. Padres will counter with Chris Paddack, who seems to be hitting a bit of a slump after a great start to 2019. Paddack has an ugly 6.28 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's averaging over strikeout/9 innings, yet only recorded 1 K in his last outing at Pittsburgh. Padres have lost each of his last 4 starts and the Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 in Hudson's last 7 starts. Take St Louis! |
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06-29-19 | Cubs +110 v. Reds | 6-0 | Win | 110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Cubs +110 This is just too good a price to pass up with Chicago. The Cubs will be extra motivated off a loss on Friday and I like them to deliver the good on Saturday. Reds will have their ace Luis Castillo on the mound, but he's coming off a poor start at Milwaukee and has a staggering 11 walks in his last 2 starts. Castillo has faced the Cubs 7 times and only twice has he been able to complete at least 6 innings. Quintana is off a horrible start, but got some extra rest and the Cubs are 6-1 in his last 7 when he's throwing on 6 days of rest. Adding to this is a great system. Road teams with a money line of +125 to -125 with a decent bullpen are 38-14 (73%) against the money line when facing an NL starter with an ERA of 2.70 or better. Take Chicago! |
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06-29-19 | Yankees -132 v. Red Sox | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Early Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Yankees -132 I really like the value here with the Yankees in Saturday's anticipated clash with rival Boston in a short two-game series overseas in London. New York is on quite a roll right now. Yankees have won 3 straight and are 11-1 in their last 12. They have a commanding 7-game lead in the AL East. Key here is the starting pitching matchup, which I feel heavily favors the Yankees with Masahiro Tanaka going up against Rick Porcello. Tanaka is trending in the right direction with a 2.49 ERA and 0.877 WHIP. In his last 2 starts he's allowed just 2 runs in 15 innings and that was against two really good teams in the Rays and Astros. Porcello is off an awful start at home against the Blue Jays, allowing 5 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings. Take New York! |
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06-28-19 | Pirates v. Brewers -137 | 3-2 | Loss | -137 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line DESTROYER on Brewers -137 Brewers should have no problem securing a win at home against division rival Pittsburgh on Friday. Milwaukee has own the Pirates this season with a 6-1 record overall and 3-0 mark at home. Also hard to not like your chances with the Brewers high-powered offense against the struggling Chris Archer. Archer has a 6.75 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also a miserable 0-3 with a 8.41 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 5 road starts. Pittsburgh is just 3-8 in Archer's last 11 starts vs a team with a winning record and 2-8 in his last 10 on the road. Take Milwaukee! |
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06-28-19 | Braves v. Mets -124 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Mets -124 Easy play here on the Mets as a small home favorite with ace and reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom on the mound. It's exactly who New York needs on the mound to put an end to their 5-game losing streak. Big thing to note is all 5 losses were on the road. Mets are a strong 20-14 at home this season and have won 12 of their 16 at home vs a right-handed starter. deGrom had his struggles early on, but is back in form. He's got a 2.53 ERA and 0.891 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also owned the Braves with a ridiculous 1.88 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in 19 career starts vs Atlanta. Take New York! |
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06-27-19 | A's +145 v. Angels | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
5* MLB - AL West GAME OF THE MONTH on A's +145 Love the value here with Oakland as a big road dog against the Angels. A's have really been playing well of late. Oakland just swept a short 2-game series at St Louis and are now 7-2 in their last 9 games. Angels are off a couple of wins against Cincinnati, but that's nothing to get excited about. A's are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record and a dominant 12-4 in their last 16 series openers. I know LA has a strong starter in Canning going, but A's are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs an AL starter with a WHIP less than 1.200. Take Oakland! |
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06-27-19 | Mariners v. Brewers -170 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Money Line NO-BRAINER on Brewers -170 I got no problem laying big juice with Milwaukee at home in Thursday's series finale against the Mariners. Seattle has won the first two games of the series, which means we are going to get a highly motivated and focused Milwaukee team in this one. This is also the prime spot for Houston's offense to get back on track. Seattle's Mike Leake is fresh off a miserable outing at home against the Orioles, where he allowed 8 runs on 11 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Brewers are 13-3 in their last 16 when playing at home with double revenge over the last two seasons. Mariners are 1-6 in Leake's last 7 road starts and 1-7 in his last 8 on the road vs a team with a winning record. Take Milwaukee! |
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06-26-19 | Mets +135 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
5* MLB - No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Mets +135 Absolutely love the value here with the Mets as a decently priced road dog against the Phillies. Philadelphia has won the first two of the series, but it has them way overvalued in this one. Phillies will send out Nick Pivetta, who has an awful 5.84 ERA and 1.546 WHIP in 6 home starts. Pivetta also owns a 6.23 ERA and 1.648 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Mets. New York will counter with Jason Vargas, who has a strong 3.20 ERA in 12 starts this season. Even more important is how well Vargas has pitched against the Phillies. He's made 4 career starts against them and has a 2.57 era and 1.143 WHIP. Mets are 5-2 in their last 7 after losing the first 2 games of a series. Philadelphia is 2-8 in Pivetta's last 10 starts vs a division opponent. Take New York! |
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06-26-19 | Rockies -136 v. Giants | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rockies -136 Easy play here on the Rockies as a small road favorite against the Giants. Colorado is hands down the better team in this matchup and they have the better starter going in this one. Rockies will send out German Marquez, who is 7-3 with a 4.32 ERA in 17 starts. A lot of people see an ERA over 4.00 and assume he's not been very good. A big reason for that is he's basically starting half his games at Coors Field. Marquez has a 3.02 ERA and 0.794 WHIP in 8 road starts. Last time out he started at Dodgers and limited LA to 1 earned run on 5 hits in 8 innings. Giants will turn to Jeff Samardzija, who has a 6.61 ERA and 1.837 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Colorado! |
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06-26-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +130 | 2-8 | Win | 130 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Diamondbacks +130 Arizona is worth a look here as a decently priced home dog against the Dodgers. No question who the better team is, but no way should LA be favored on the road with a guy making his first ever big league start. Even with yesterday's win the Dodgers are just 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs a team with a losing record. Dbacks will send out a rookie of their own in Taylor Clarke, whose overall numbers aren't great. However, Clarke pitched well at home against these same Dodgers earlier this month, giving up just 2 earned runs in 5 innings. Take Arizona! |
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06-25-19 | A's v. Cardinals -127 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -127 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
5* MLB - Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK on Cardinals -127 Love the value here with St Louis as a relatively small home favorite against the A's. Cardinals are 7-4 in their last 11 and come in having scored 4 or more in 4 straight games. St Louis will send out Jack Flaherty to start this one. If you just look at Flaherty's overall numbers you might miss the value here, as he's just 4-4 with a 4.24 ERA in 15 starts. Flaherty is simply a different pitcher at home compared to on the road, as he's got a 2.49 ERA and sensational 0.830 WHIP with 53 strikeouts in 47 innings over 8 home starts. St Louis is a perfect 10-0 this season at home vs great power teams that are averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game, while A's are 3-13 in their last 16 vs an NL team that is scoring 4.5 or more runs/game. Take St Louis! |
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06-25-19 | Braves v. Cubs +108 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Cubs +108 This is just too good a price to pass up with Chicago at home. Cubs won the series opener 8-3 on Monday and are now 28-14 at Wrigley Field this season. Atlanta has been playing well, but are now playing their 5th straight on the road. I also think Braves' starter Max Fried is a little overvalued right now. Fried had a 2.30 ERA at the end of April. It was up to 3.19 after a sluggish May and is up to 4.03 after a miserable month of June, where he's posted a 6.53 ERA in 4 starts. Cubs will have Adbert Alzolay on the mound and there's a ton of excitement surrounding one of the clubs top prospects. He pitched great in 4 innings of relief in his first big league action. He came in the 5th inning and didn't allow a hit until serving up a solo homer in the 9th. I look for him to pitch well. Take Chicago! |
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06-25-19 | Rangers v. Tigers +130 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Tigers +130 Solid value here with the Tigers as a home dog against the Rangers. Texas is just 14-21 on the road compared to 28-15 at home. Rangers are being forced here to turn "Opener" Jesse Chavez into a legit starter here. While Chavez has been great in his previous role, it doesn't mean he will perform well here. Texas has dropped 13 of their last 19 series openers and are a miserable 1-6 in their last 7 after a day off. Adding to this is a great system in play on Detroit. Home underdogs that are a poor power team (0.9 or less HR's/game) and facing a pitcher that hasn't started in 7 or more days are 52-37 (58.4%) over the last 5 seasons. Take Detroit! |
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06-24-19 | Rockies v. Giants +125 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Giants +125 San Francisco is worth a look here as a small home dog against division rival Colorado. It's one thing to try and bounce back from a tough loss, it's whole different animal trying to recover from what the Rockies just experienced over the weekend. Colorado was swept in a 3-game series at Los Angeles, where a Dodgers rookie player ended the game on a walk-off homer. Giants took 2 of 3 at Arizona and in that series they won their 6th straight series opener. Take San Francisco! |
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06-24-19 | Dodgers -133 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -133 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Dodgers -133 Easy play here on the Dodgers as a small road favorite. LA comes in having won 6 straight and are off a 3-game sweep against the Rockies, where they won all 3 games in walk-off fashion. Arizona is 1-6 in their last 7 and while they won yesterday at SF, they scored just 3 runs in the process. Offense just isn't clicking right now and it's hard to see them snapping out of that funk against Clayton Kershaw, who is 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Diamondbacks will have their ace on the mound in Zack Greinke, but he's coming off a start at home where he gave up 5 runs to the Rockies. Greinke also allowed 7 runs on 7 hits in 3 2/3 innings in his only start vs LA this season. Dodgers are 56-13 in Kershaw's last 69 starts vs a division opponent and 43-16 in his last 59 during game 1 of a series. Take Los Angeles! |
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06-23-19 | Giants +131 v. Diamondbacks | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Giants +131 Easy play here on San Francisco. The Giants have won the first two games of the series, which both came after the call-up of Alex Dickerson, who has come out of nowhere to carry the San Francisco offense. Dickerson has gone 5 for 9, hitting for the cycle in the process. Giants have scored 18 runs in the two wins. Diamondbacks have lost 6 straight, as they were swept at home in their previous series by the Rockies. Arizona has struggled to get their offense going and I look for that to continue against the Giants Shaun Anderson. He's been solid of late, allowing 3 or fewer runs in 4 straight and 6 of his 7 starts overall. Take San Francisco! |
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06-23-19 | Rockies v. Dodgers -208 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas HEAVY HITTER Top Play on Dodgers -208 I got zero problem laying the big juice with Los Angeles on the road against the Rockies. LA is the best team in the NL and have Kenta Maeda starting at home, where he is 5-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.757 WHIP in 6 starts. Maeda has also owned Colorado in his career. He's faced them 9 times as a starter and owns a sensational 2.56 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. Chances are Maeda will hold form, but even if he's not at his best he should get plenty of runs support. Rockies are countering with Antonio Senzatela, who has a ERA over 5.00 in 13 starts and a 7.20 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his only start against the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles! |
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06-23-19 | Padres -142 v. Pirates | 10-11 | Loss | -142 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Padres -142 I'm confident the Padres will avoid the sweep in the series finale at Pittsburgh. San Diego's offense has been held in check the first two games of the series, but are poised to breakout here with Steven Brault on the mound for the Pirates. San Diego will counter with Joey Lucchesi, who is one of the more underrated starters in the league. Lucchesi just keeps getting better. He's got a 3.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He was dominant in his most recent out against the Brewers, holding Milwaukee to a mere 3 hits over 7 shutout innings. Pirates are just 2-8 in their last 10 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and are just 3-8 in their last 11 off a win. Take San Diego! |
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06-22-19 | White Sox v. Rangers -181 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Vegas Money Line NO-BRAINER on Rangers -181 I got no problem laying the big juice here with Texas at home agains the White Sox. Rangers are one of the more underrated teams in the league. Texas will be eager to get back on the field after last night's loss to Chicago and they are in a prime spot to get the win. Rangers will send out veteran Lance Lynn, who has been throwing like an ace of late. Lynn enters with a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's been throwing like this for a while now, as he's pitched at least 6 innings in 10 straight starts and has gone 8 straight giving up 3 or fewer runs. Take Texas! |
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06-22-19 | Astros v. Yankees -154 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
3* MLB Money Line DESTROYER on Yankees -154 Easy play here on the Yankees at home against the Astros Saturday. New York handed Houston their sixth straight loss with a 4-1 win on Friday. New York has now won 7 straight and I'm confident the make it 8 in a row. Yankees have a clear edge on the mound with Masahiro Tanaka against the likes of Wade Miley. Tanaka has a strong 3.23 ERA in 15 starts, but owns an even stronger 2.83 ERA an 1.081 WHIP in 9 home starts. Miley has a solid 3.30 ERA in 15 starts, but is just 2-3 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in 8 road starts. Take New York! |
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06-22-19 | Braves +115 v. Nationals | Top | 13-9 | Win | 115 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves +115 Love the value here with Atlanta as a small road dog against the Nationals. Washington has won 5 straight, but will send out Anibal Sanchez. He's just 3-6 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in 13 starts. Braves are a solid 21-13 in their last 34 on the road after losing 2 of their previous 3. They are also a dominant 9-1 in their last 10 off a 1-run loss. Braves will have Mike Foltynewiczs will start for Atlanta and he's pitched well against the Nationals in his career and Atlanta is a 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs a division opponent. Take Atlanta! |
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06-21-19 | Twins -145 v. Royals | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Twins -145 Minnesota is worth a look here on the road against the Royals. This feels like quite the bargain, as we get one of the best teams in baseball at less than -150 against one of the worst teams in the league. Doesn't hurt the Twins will have Martin Perez on the mound, who despite some recent struggles, still comes in at 6-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 12 stats. Perez has a strong 3.08 ERA in 4 career starts against the Royals. KC will send out Jake Junis, who has a not so great 5.34 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in 15 starts. Junis also owns a 5.68 ERA in 8 road starts and a 4.55 ERA and 1.807 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Twins. Take Minnesota! |
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06-21-19 | Angels -108 v. Cardinals | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Angels -108 I like the Angels to win the series opener Friday night in St Louis. It's hard to believe, but this will mark the first time that Albert Pujols will play a game in St Louis since he was a member of the Cardinals way back in 2011. This isn't just another series for LA, especially the opener. They want this to be a memorable return. It helps St Louis will have the struggling Michael Wacha on the mound. Wacha is off another poor outing, as he gave up 6 runs on 7 hits in 4 innings at the Mets. Wacha now has a 5.40 ERA and 1.658 WHIP in 11 starts. He's been downright awful at home, posting a 8.23 ERA and 2.033 WHIP in 4 home starts. Take Los Angeles! |
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06-21-19 | Astros +145 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Astros +145 Really like the value here with Houston as a big road dog against the Yankees. Astros are due for a win to say the least, as they come in having lost 5 straight. New York on the other hand is due for a loss after winning 6 straight. That's not all. Yankees starter, James Paxton, has a 7.42 ERA and 1.874 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Last time he started at home, he gave up 6 runs on 7 hits in 2 2/3 innings. Astros will send out Brad Peacock, who has a strong 3.77 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 13 starts. Astros are 8-3 in Peacock's last 11 road starts vs a team with a winning record and are 37-14 in their last 51 road games vs a left-handed starter. Take Houston! |
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06-20-19 | Angels v. Blue Jays +140 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 140 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* MLB - AL Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays +140 Love the Blue Jays here as a home dog against the Angels. I won on the Angels each of the last two days, but now is the time to shift gears and take the other side. Toronto is going to be extremely motivated here to avoid getting swept in this 4-game series with LA. Big flat spot for LA. Angels won 11-6 on Wednesday and Toronto is 12-5 in their last 17 home games after allowing 9 or more runs. LA is also a mere 2-10 in their last 12 vs a starter that is winless after 5 or more starts. Clayton Richard is 0-3 with a 7.52 ERA in 5 starts. However, Richard was outstanding last year against the Angels, giving up just 2 runs on 4 hits in 8 innings. Take Toronto! |
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06-20-19 | Indians v. Rangers +120 | 2-4 | Win | 120 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER on Rangers +120 Texas is showing big time value here as a home dog to the Indians. Cleveland is coming off a couple of high-scoring wins and are overvalued because of it. No way should the Rangers be a dog at home with the likes of Mike Minor on the mound. Minor has a 2.63 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 15 starts. He's got a 2.25 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 2.18 ERA in 7 home starts. It's been hit or miss for Indians starter Shane Bieber. He was sharp last time out against a bad Detroit lineup, but prior to that he gave up 5 runs in 1 2/3 innings at home to New York. Indians are a mere 4-19 in their last 23 vs an AL starter with an ERA of 2.90 or better. Take Texas! |
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06-19-19 | Rockies +133 v. Diamondbacks | 6-4 | Win | 133 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Late Night ANNIHILATOR on Rockies +133 I love the value here with Colorado. I get the Diamondbacks will have ace Zack Greinke on the mound, but he's facing a Rockies offense, most notably Charlie Blackmon, that's hitting the cover off the ball. Blackmon can tie MLB history with a sixth straight game with 3 or more hits. That's now 56 runs in their last 5 games for Colorado. I also think it helps the Rockies to have already faced Greinke twice this season. The more you see a pitcher the more comfortable you are going to be. Rockies have gone 20-8 in their last 28 after a win where they held a division foe to 1 or fewer runs. Take Colorado! |
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06-19-19 | Mets v. Braves -147 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line DESTROYER on Braves -147 Atlanta is worth a play at this price on their home field. Mets won yesterday's matchup by a score of 10-2, but they also had the reigning Cy Young on the mound in deGrom. Prior to that the Braves had gone 10-1 in their previous 11 games. They had also scored 5 or more runs in 9 straight prior to Tuesday. Look for Atlanta's offense to return to form. New York will have Steven Matz on the mound and he's got a 5.79 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 7 road starts. Atlanta will have Max Fried on the mound. He's struggled a bit of late, but has been consistently strong at home (3.54 ERA and 1.106 WHIP). Take Atlanta! |
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06-19-19 | Astros -166 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -166 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
5* MLB - Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Astros -166 I'm confident the Astros will secure a road win at Cincinnati. Houston enters having lost 3 straight, but they are going to get a huge boost here with the return of Jose Altuve. Anytime you add a MVP-type player back into your lineup, it provides a spark to the other players. It doesn't hurt that Houston will also have the edge on the mound. Astros send out the surging Gerrit Cole, who has a solid but not great 3.67 ERA in 15 starts. However, Cole has been elite here of late. Last two starts he's given up a mere 3 earned runs on 7 hits with 24 strikeouts in 13 innings. Tyler Mahle will start for the Reds and he's headed in the other direction. Mahle has a 5.65 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Houston! |
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06-18-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -135 | 8-1 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Diamondbacks -135 I really like Arizona in Tuesday's series opener against the Rockies. Colorado is coming off quite the 4-game series at home against the Padres. The two teams combined for a ridiculous 92 runs in those 4 games, the most in a 4-game series in 90 years. No need to debate it, Rockies' players have already stated how draining that series was. A flat Colorado team that no longer has the thin air of Coors Field to help them could struggle to get their offense going against Arizona's Merrill Kelly. In his last 3 starts, Kelly has looked like a Cy Young candidate, posting a 0.81 ERA and 0.627 WHIP. Rockies will counter with Antonio Senzatela, who has a mere 5.48 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in 12 starts. Senzatela is also fresh off a bad outing at home against the Cubs, allowing 8 runs on 8 hits in 4 innings of work. Take Arizona! |
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06-18-19 | Red Sox v. Twins +110 | 3-4 | Win | 110 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Twins +110 I'll gladly back Minnesota as a home dog against the Red Sox. No way should the Twins be a home dog. Minnesota has the best record in the league at 47-24 and are 23-12 at home this season. Boston is getting love with David Price on the mound, but he's coming off a dreadful outing at home against the Rangers. Price gave up 6 runs on 5 hits, recording just 4 outs before getting pulled. As for Twins starter Michael Pineda, he's got a strong 3.78 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Pineda has allowed 3 or fewer hits in 2 of his last 3 starts. Twins are 21-6 in their last 27 off a loss and 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 2 or fewer runs. Take Minnesota! |
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06-18-19 | Angels -107 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Angels -107 Easy play here on the Angels as a small favorite at Toronto. Los Angeles is a team to watch out for right now. Angels just got back Justin Upton and not that long ago Ohtani was added to the mix. Upton homered in his first at-bat back and Ohtani has been red-hot of late. I look for that offense to be able to get to Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman. Not only do I see the Angels putting up a big number, Toronto's offense is one of the worst in the league. Especially at home. Blue Jays are only averaging 3.7 runs/game and hitting .209 as a team on their home field this season. Tyler Skaggs of LA hasn't been great, but Toronto is just 17-43 in their last 16 vs a left-handed starter and are 3-7 in Stroman's last 10 home starts. Take Los Angeles! |
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06-17-19 | Brewers +115 v. Padres | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Vegas Money Line HEAVY HITTER on Brewers +115 Absolutely love the value here with Milwaukee as an underdog against the Padres. Brewers avoided getting swept at San Francisco with a 5-3 win on Sunday. Milwaukee is getting no lover here because of how bad starter Jhoulys Chacin has been in 2019. The key here is Chacin's is healthy coming off the IL and is a guy that we know can perform at a high level. Padres put on an offensive show with the Rockies at Coors Field over the weekend (two combined for 92 runs in 4 games). I know they are returning home after a road trip and that should be a positive, but I think it's a big flat spot off that series with Colorado. Let's also not forget that San Diego has struggled at home this season. Take Milwaukee! |
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06-17-19 | Astros v. Reds -110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
5* MLB - Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK on Reds -110 I got no problem backing the Reds as a small home favorite against the Astros. Not very often you see Houston as a dog, especially against a team with a losing record. That speaks volumes to the respect the books have for Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo and rightfully so. Castillo is 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.090 WHIP over 14 starts and has a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 7 home starts. He's definitely catching a break in this one, as Houston is minus 3 of their best players in Altuve, Correa and Springer (all on IL). Also got to love the Reds coming into this game off a big offensive performance, as they scored 11 runs in yesterday's 8-run win over the Rangers. Astros starter, Wade Miley, has a mediocre 4.50 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 7 road starts. Take Cincinnati! |
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06-16-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers -162 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* MLB - Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Dodgers -162 The Dodgers are an easy play for me on Sunday Night Baseball against the Cubs. Chicago won on Saturday, barely squeaking out a 2-1 win. LA had won the first two in the series behind strong offensive showings. Look for them to get back on track agains the struggling Jose Quintana. It's been a big struggle for Quintana when he's not starting at Wrigley Field. He's a mere 1-3 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 6 road starts. Dodgers counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has to be your early Cy Young favorite. Ryu is 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.802 WHIP over 13 starts. He's a perfect 6-0 with a 1.01 ERA and 0.649 WHIP in 6 home starts. Take Los Angeles! |
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06-16-19 | Rangers v. Reds -156 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Reds -156 Really like Cincinnati in this spot. Reds are going to be highly motivated to get a win after dropping the first two games in the series. They have just the guy on the mound to make sure they secure the win. Reds will turn to Sonny Gray, who comes in great form with a 3.24 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Gray has enjoyed every chance he gets at facing the Rangers. He's 8-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.132 WHIP over 13 starts. Reds are 10-4 in their last 14 off a loss and 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Cincinnati! |
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06-16-19 | Indians v. Tigers +144 | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Tigers +144 I really like the value we are getting with Detroit as a home division dog against the Indians. Cleveland has won the first two games in the series, but it has them way overvalued in the finale. I also think there's a bit of an overreaction with Trevor Bauer's last start. Bauer allowed just 1 run in 7 2/3 innings at home against the Reds. However, he walked 5 guys in that outing and was 0-5 with a 5.52 ERA in his previous 7 starts. Tigers will have one of their top starters going in Spencer Turnbull. He's quietly sitting there with a 2.78 ERA over his 14 starts of 2019 and has a 2.12 ERA in his last 3 outings. Take Detroit! |
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06-15-19 | Cardinals v. Mets -137 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Vegas Money Line NO-BRAINER on Mets -137 I got no problem laying a little juice with the Mets at home against the Cardinals on Saturday. St Louis comes in having won 4 of 5, including the first two in this series, but it has them getting too much respect in a very favorable matchup for New York. St Louis will be turning to Michael Wacha, who has 4.95 ERA and 1.632 WHIP in 10 starts. Wacha just hasn't been himself in 2019 and has walked 31 guys in 52 2/3 innings. He was so bad early on he had to be removed from the rotation. Mets will counter with Noah Syndergaard, who after a slow start of his own has really come alive. Syndergaard has a 2.75 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Note Cards won 9-5 on Friday and are 0-7 this season in road games after a win by 4 or more runs. Take New York! |
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06-15-19 | Rangers +110 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Win | 110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Rangers +110 Easy play here on Texas as a road dog against the slumping Reds. Not sure what the books are seeing in Cincinnati in this one. Reds lost 7-1 in the series opener last night and are just 3-7 in their last 10 overall. Biggest problem for Cincinnati is the offense. Reds have scored 2 or fewer runs in 7 of those 10 games. Hard to see them snapping out of their slump against the likes of the Rangers Mike Minor. In 14 starts so far in 2019, Minor has posted a 2.52 ERA and 1.175 WHIP and he's stayed true to form of late with a 2.41 ERA in his last 3 starts. Key here is the Rangers can score. Texas has put up 4 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Red starter Tanner Roark has a not so great 4.50 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Texas! |
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06-15-19 | Brewers v. Giants -104 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Sharp Money Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Giants -104 I think the books have made a huge mistake here with the line for Saturday's MLB action between the Giants and Brewers. Milwaukee is the better team and the Giants are not a public team, making them way undervalued in this spot. Brewers are a long way from home with a guy on the mound that was really bad in his last start. Jimmy Nelson missed more than a full season and in his first start back gave up 5 runs in 3 innings to the Marlins of all teams. Chances are he's going to take a minute to get into form. While he figures to get hit hard, San Fran will have veteran ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound to keep the Brewers offense in check. Bumgarner has underachieved to this point, but does have a strong 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take San Francisco! |
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06-14-19 | Cardinals v. Mets -125 | 9-5 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Mets -125 My money is on the Mets to take down the Cardinals after the two teams finish up last night's suspended game. New York has Steven Matz on the mound and the Mets are a perfect 5-0 in his 5 home starts this year. Matz owns a 1.80 ERA in those 5 starts, as he has allowed just 6 earned runs in 30 innings. Cardinals will counter here with Daniel Poncedeleon, who is making just his second start of 2019. Poncedeleon has been hit or miss in his 5 career starts. The biggest problem he has had is he doesn't go deep in games and that could be a major problem here, especially if the suspended game drags on. Either way I like the Mets in this spot. Take New York! |
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06-14-19 | Indians -137 v. Tigers | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Vegas Money Line NO-BRAINER on Indians -137 Absolutely love the value here with Cleveland in Friday's series opener against the Tigers. Detroit is not a very good team and bad teams are often the ones that struggle in tough spots. Tigers are playing their 3rd game in 3 nights in a different city. They played Wednesday at Kansas City, last night they were in Omaha and tonight they are at home. Indians will have Adam Plutko on the mound, who is coming off a great start against the Yankees. Plutko allowed just 2 runs on 3 hits in 6 innings. That's the second time in 3 starts this year that he's lasted 6 innings and gave up 2 or fewer. Detroit has scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall. Take Cleveland! |
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06-14-19 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -165 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nationals -165 I got no problem here laying the big juice with the Nationals at home on Friday. Washington will have ace and 3x Cy Young winner, Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer had a bit of a slow start to 2019, but it's safe to say he's back to his elite form. Scherzer has a 0.86 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last 3 starts, lowering his season ERA down to 2.83. Scherzer has also tormented the team that drafted him way back in 2006. He's 6-0 with a 2.89 ERA in six stars against the Diamondbacks. It's the exact opposite for Arizona starter Robbie Ray, who was drafted by the Nationals, but is 0-4 with a 6.26 ERA in 5 starts against Washington. Take the Nationals! |
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06-13-19 | Tigers -122 v. Royals | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
5* MLB - AL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Tigers -122 Easy play here on Detroit in a rare neutral site game in the MLB. These will kickoff the festivities at the 2019 College World Series with a game at Omaha's TD Ameritrade Park. Some might find it tough betting on a matchup of two bad teams, but there's too much value here to pass up with the Tigers. Detroit has one of the better starters that people don't know about on the mound. Matt Boyd's 5-4 record and 3.08 ERA might not seem like anything special, but this guy has elite swing and miss stuff. Boyd has 105 strikeouts in 84.7 innings. What makes him special is he doesn't walk people with just 15 free passes on the season. In his last 3 starts he has a ridiculous 25/1 K/BB ratio. Royals aren't a great offensive team, so Boyd should be able to keep them well in check. All we need is for the Tigers offense to put up some runs. They should be able to do just that, as KC will send out Homer Bailey and his 5.90 ERA and 1.508 WHIP in 13 starts. Take Detroit! |
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06-13-19 | Blue Jays -136 v. Orioles | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Vegas Money Line MASSACRE on Blue Jays -136 I really like Toronto as a relatively small road favorite against the Orioles. Blue Jays snapped a 5-game losing streak with a 8-6 win over Baltimore on Wednesday. Hard to not like Toronto's chances with Marcus Stroman on the mound. Stroman has a 3.56 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in 5 road starts. He also has a strong 3.68 ERA in 12 career starts against the Orioles. Baltimore is a pathetic 17-42 in their last 59 home games and are a mere 1-6 in their last 7 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Simply put, this is too good a price with a top tier starter to pass up. Take Toronto! |
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06-12-19 | Rangers +135 v. Red Sox | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rangers +135 I really like the value here with Texas as a decently priced road dog against the Red Sox. Boston is struggling to get this thing figured out. Red Sox have started out their 8-game homestand a mere 1-5 after losing the first two in the series to the Rangers. No doubt Boston isn't playing up their potential. They got too much talent to be a sub-.500 team. However, they are pressing right now and I'll look to keep fading them. Red Sox will have a struggling Rick Porcello on the mound, who has a 6.23 ERA and 1.730 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Texas on the other hand has a surging Lance Lynn, who owns a 3.44 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Texas! |
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06-12-19 | Reds v. Indians -117 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
5* MLB - Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Indians -117 Easy play here on Cleveland as a small home favorite. Indians will have little known Zach Plesac on the mound and that's where the value stems from in this one. Plesac has only made 3 big league starts, all 3 since joining the rotation in late May. He's been outstanding, posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in 3 starts, which includes a road start at Boston and a start at home against the Yankees. Plesac will be up against a Reds offense that would struggle to hit a ball off a tee right now. Cincinnati scored just 1 run in yesterday's loss and have scored 2 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 with a 4 run outburst being their best during this stretch. Phillies are scoring 5.6 runs/game over their last 7 and will be up against Anthony Desclafani. He's got a 4.70 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 12 starts and a 5.02 ERA and 1.674 over his last 3 outings. Take Cleveland! |
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06-11-19 | Tigers v. Royals -130 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
3* MLB - AL Central PLAY of the DAY on Royals -130 Kansas City is worth a look as a small home favorite against the Tigers with Jake Junis on the mound. That's because Junis has owned Detroit. Junis is 5-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Tigers. That's with 6 of the 8 starts coming in Detroit. In his 2 home starts against the Tigers, he's given up a mere 4 runs with 15 K's on 16 innings of work. Tigers will counter with Spencer Turnbull, who has a solid 3.01 ERA in 13 starts, but is trending in the wrong direction with an ERA at 4.00 over his last 3. Detroit has lost 4 of his last 5 starts. Tigers are also just 4-13 in their last 17 following a loss and 3-7 in their last 10 series openers. Take Kansas City! |
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06-11-19 | Mariners v. Twins -170 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Twins -170 Easy play here for me on the Twins at home in Tuesday's series opener against the Mariners. Seattle may have taken over the season home run lead from Minnesota (Twins played fewer games), but this is a rebuilding Mariners team that has been among the worst in baseball of late. Seattle is a mere 15-39 since starting the year out 13-2. Another key here is the starting pitching matchup, which I think heavily favors Minnesota. Seattle's Mike Leake threw a complete game last time out against the Astros, but that was at home. Leake is a mere 1-4 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in 7 road starts. Twins will have Martin Perez on the rubber. Perez has a 7.29 ERA and 2.107 WHIP in his last 3 starts, but all 3 were on the road. Perez is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in 4 home starts. Take Minnesota! |
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06-11-19 | Diamondbacks +122 v. Phillies | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Diamondbacks +122 I'm all over the Diamondbacks as a road dog against the Phillies on Tuesday. Arizona is playing too well to not take a shot on them at this price. Diamondbacks defeated the Phillies 13-8 on Monday for their 5th straight win. Arizona has 4 straight games with 10 or more hits and at least 6 runs. That offense will be up against a struggling Jake Arrieta, who has 6.11 ERA and 1.641 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Arrieta has given up 10 runs on 17 hits (5 HRs) and 6 walks in his last 2 starts. While Arizona's offense figures to stay hot, I think Jon Duplantier has the stuff to keep the Phillies in check, at least enough to get the win. Dbacks have won 7 straight on the road against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Phillies are just 1-5 in their last 6 off a loss and have lost 4 straight at home against a team with a winning record. Take Arizona! |
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06-10-19 | Dodgers -162 v. Angels | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -162 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
5* MLB - Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Dodgers -162 I got no problem laying a little juice with Dodgers in Monday's series opener against their cross-town rivals. Not only are the Dodgers the better team, but they got arguably the Cy Young frontrunner on the mound in Hyun-Jin Ryu. He's 9-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.775 WHIP in 12 starts. He's also coming into this one in prime form, as he hasn't allowed a run in either of his last two starts. Angels have not hit left handed starters well this season. They have gone just 9-16 in games where they face a left-handed starter and are scoring just 4.4 runs/game and hitting .249 as a team. Angels are also 0-11 in their last 11 vs a NL starting pitcher with an WHIP of 1.15 or better. LA is also 4-14 in their last 18 vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game. Dodgers are 41-14 in Ryu's last 58 starts vs a team with a losing record. Take the Dodgers! |
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06-10-19 | Pirates +147 v. Braves | 7-13 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Situational DOG OF THE DAY on Pirates +147 Pittsburgh is worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Braves. Pirates were just swept over the weekend in a 3-game series at Milwaukee. They are going to be 100% locked in for this one. Braves on the other hand are off a 3-game sweep at Miami and could easily come out flat in this one. The bigger factor here is who the Braves are sending to the mound. Kevin Gausman is going to get a start and it figures to be one of his last. Gausman is expected to be the guy to get the boot in the rotation when newly signed Dallas Keuchel is ready to go. Gausman only has himself to blame, as he's posted a 6.15 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in 12 starts and is trending in the wrong direction with a 13.50 ERA and 2.333 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Pittsburgh! |
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06-09-19 | White Sox v. Royals -119 | 5-2 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
4* MLB Money Line NO-BRAINER on Royals -119 Have to pick your spots when backing a poor team like Kansas City and this is definitely one where you want to be on the Royals. Kansas City has such a massive edge on the mound that this is too good a price to pass up. Royals will send out Glenn Sparkman, who has made 2 starts at home and owns 0.73 ERA and 0.649 WHIP. Chicago on the other hand will turn to Reynaldo Lopez and he's 0-4 with a 8.75 ERA and 1.901 WHIP. Lopez also owns an atrocious 12.82 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 5.05 ERA in 10 starts vs the Royals. Take Kansas City! |
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06-09-19 | Twins -223 v. Tigers | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
4* MLB - AL Central PLAY OF THE WEEK on Twins -223 I'm confident the Twins will take care of business on the road in Sunday's series finale against the Tigers. Not only do we have a massive mismatch in terms of talent, but Minnesota will have a huge edge on the mound in this one with Jake Odorizzi facing off against Ryan Carpenter. Odorizzi has been Cy Young material in 2019. He's 8-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in 12 starts. He's not allowed a run in 3 straight start starts, a stretch in which he's posted a 0.674 WHIP. Odorizzi has also made 9 starts against the Tigers and his team has won 7 of them. Carpenter has made 5 starts and owns a 6.23 ERA and 1.385 WHIP. Out of those 5 starts, 3 have come at home and it's not been pretty in those 3. Carpenter has allowed 16 runs on 24 hits (5 HRs) in 16 innings pitched at home. Take Minnesota! |
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06-09-19 | Reds +123 v. Phillies | Top | 4-3 | Win | 123 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
5* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Reds +123 I absolutely love the value here with Cincinnati as a road dog on Sunday. Phillies have won the first two games of the series and 4 in a row overall. Most will look to take Philadelphia, especially with ace Aaron Nola on the mound. However, Nola hasn't been anything close to an elite starter in 2019, despite a solid 6-1 record. Nola owns a 4.63 ERA and atrocious 1.529 WHIP in 13 starts. In his last start he was just rocked for 6 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in 5 1/3 innings of work at San Diego. While the Phillies will send out one of the more overrated right now, Reds will have one of the more underrated arms on the mound in Sonny Gray. In 12 starts, Gray owns a strong 3.39 ERA and 1.213 WHIP. Gray also has a sizzling 2.89 ERA in 5 road starts and a 1.59 ERA in his last 3 outings. Take Cincinnati! |
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06-08-19 | Nationals -148 v. Padres | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nationals -148 Easy play here on the Nationals. Washington is 9-4 in their last 13 games and 3 of the 4 losses have been by a mere 1-run, which includes each of the first two games in this series. I don't even expect this one to be close, as the Nationals will have Max Scherzer on the mound. Scherzer has had quite the unfortunate start to 2019. He's just 3-5, despite a strong 3.06 ERA and 1.125 WHIP over his 13 starts. He's taking matter into his owns hands. Last time out he allowed 1 run on 3 hits with 15 K's in 8 innings of a 4-1 win at Cincinnati. Scherzer has a 2.37 ERA in 10 career starts against the Padres and my money is on him to dominate in this one. Take Washington! |
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06-08-19 | Yankees v. Indians +118 | 4-8 | Win | 118 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
3* MLB Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Indians +118 Love the value here with Cleveland as a home dog against the Yankees. New York is overpriced more times than not and that's especially the case here. Betting public will want nothing to do with Indians starter Adam Plutko after seeing he gave up 7 runs on 12 hits in his last start. However, the start prior to that he only gave up 1 run on 1 hit in 6 innings. With the Yankees not exactly swinging a hot bat, I think he will do just fine in this one. As for the Indians' offense, I think they are going to have success against Yankees starter C.C. Sabathia. While Sabathia owns a very respectable 3.61 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in 9 starts overall, he's got sub-par 5.31 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in 4 road outings. Indians are also swinging a hot bat with 23 runs in their last 4 games. Take Cleveland! |
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06-08-19 | White Sox v. Royals +119 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Royals +119 Kansas City snapped a 6-game losing streak with a 6-4 win at home against the White Sox on Friday. Royals have struggled to score runs this season, but have now scored 11 on 24 hits in their last 2 games. I look for KC to stay hot and find a way to get to Chicago starter Lucas Giolito. I know Giolito is coming off a strong May, but I'm not convinced he's completely turned the corner into elite status. He's due for a bad outing. White Sox have also now lost 6 straight on the road and are a mere 8-21 in their last 29 vs a starter with a WHIP worse than 1.30. Royals' Brad Keller has a strong 3.46 ERA in 7 starts against the White Sox, including a 3.00 ERA in 4 starts versus them this season. KC is 15-7 in their last 22 at home vs a team with a losing record. Take Kansas City! |
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06-07-19 | Pirates +233 v. Brewers | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Money Line MASSACRE on Pirates +233 I can't believe the price we are getting on the Pirates Friday night in Milwaukee. I get the Brewers being favored at home with a no name starting for Pittsburgh, but this line is ridiculous. Pirates can easily win this one. I get that Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff has a 7-1 record, but he owns a very mediocre 3.82 ERA in 12 starts and actually has a 4.05 ERA in his last 3. Not to mention he gave up 6 runs on 10 hits in just 4 innings in his only start this season against Pittsburgh. Pirates also come in swinging a hot bat, as they just put up 18 runs on 34 hits in a 3-game series against Atlanta and are averaging 6.3 runs/game and hitting .312 as a team over their last 7. Take Pittsburgh! |
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06-07-19 | Diamondbacks +130 v. Blue Jays | 8-2 | Win | 130 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Money Line NO-BRAINER on Diamondbacks +130 I really like the value here with Arizona as a decently priced road dog against the Blue Jays. The only teams with fewer wins than Toronto are the Orioles and Royals. Blue Jays come in having won just 2 times in their last 9 games. Toronto starter Marcus Stroman has a very strong 2.84 ERA in 13 starts this season, but also owns a sub-par 1.303 WHIP and 3-7 record. Stroman isn't as good as his ERA suggest and it's hard to win games when your offense struggles to score runs. Blue Jays have surpassed 4 runs in just 2 of their last 9 games and average a mere 3.8 runs/game on the season. Arizona's averages 5.1 runs/game. Diamondbacks are a rock-solid 26-19 in their last 45 as a road dog of +100 to +150, while Blue Jays are 8-27 in their last 35 after a 5-game stretch where they had a team batting average of .225 or worse. Take Arizona! |
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06-06-19 | A's v. Angels -123 | 7-4 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Angels -123 The Angels are worth a look late on Thursday, as they should have no problem winning at home against the A's. Oakland has been struggling to win games of late, as they are just 1-6 in their last 7. LA is headed in the other direction, as the Angels are 8-4 in their last 12. A's starter Michael Fiers threw a no hitter earlier this season and I think it has him overvalued. He's 0-2 with a 7.76 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in 6 road starts (1-5 team record). Angels will counter with Tyler Skaggs, who has a 2.28 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 4 home starts. Take Los Angeles! |
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06-06-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +178 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Blue Jays +178 We cashed in a huge profit on Toronto yesterday (5* AL East play of the month) and will roll the dice on the Blue Jays as they go for the 3-game sweep of New York. Toronto is getting no love from the books, because it's not been pretty of late for starter Edwin Jackson. However, Jackson is a veteran pitcher and one little tweak can put him right back on track. In fact, Jackson is 14-2 over the last 2 seasons against a team that is hitting .265 or worse. Also, Yankees starter, J.A. Happ, isn't exactly pitching lights out. Happ has an ugly 6.13 ERA in his last 3 starts. Take Toronto! |
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06-05-19 | Red Sox -200 v. Royals | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Red Sox -200 No need to overthink this one. Lay double the juice with Boston and cash in an easy winner on the diamond tonight. Red Sox defeated the Royals 8-3 on Tuesday. KC has lost 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall. They got no shot tonight with Boston sending out ace Chris Sale against the likes of Jake Junis. Sale has been throwing it much better of late and owns a 2.90 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in 23 career starts against the Royals. Junis is not very good. He's got a 5.35 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in 12 starts. Take Boston! |
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06-05-19 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +185 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 185 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
5* MLB - AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Blue Jays +185 I really like the value here with Toronto as a massive home dog against the Yankees on Wednesday. Blue Jays snapped a 6-game losing streak with a 4-3 win over New York on Tuesday. Toronto took down Tanaka in that one and now they are ready to take aim at James Paxton. While Paxton owns a sensational 2.81 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 8 starts, he's got an ugly 7.20 ERA and 1.867 WHIP in 3 road starts. Toronto will counter with Trent Thornton, who has been a lot better than the numbers would suggest. Adding even more value is a great system in play to fade New York. Favorites of -150 or more that are averaging 1.5 or more homers/game are just 72-102 against the money line over the last 5 seasons. That's a hefty 59% system on an underdog to win outright. Take Toronto! |
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06-04-19 | Phillies +145 v. Padres | 9-6 | Win | 145 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Vegas Line MISTAKE on Phillies +145 Big time value here with the Phillies in Tuesday's matchup with the Padres. I just think San Diego is a little overpriced after yesterday's win, which we had as our top play. A lot of people are quick to back the Padres with Chris Paddack on the mound, as he was outstanding to start the year and still has a very strong 2.40 ERA and 0.816 WHIP. However, Paddack has struggled of late and has a 4.59 ERA in his last 3 starts. He served up 3 homers in his last start at New York and has now given up 5 home runs in his last 3 starts (only gave up 2 in his first 7 starts). I look for his struggles to continue here. Take Philadelphia! |
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06-04-19 | Orioles +111 v. Rangers | 12-11 | Win | 111 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Money Line NO-BRAINER on Orioles +111 I really like the value here with Baltimore as a dog in Tuesday's series opener against the Rangers. Key here is who the Orioles have on the mound. Baltimore will send out the red-hot Dylan Bundy, who has a 2.94 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Bundy is also fresh off a great outing at home against the Tigers, where he gave up just 3 runs in 7 innings. While the Orioles will have Bundy on the rubber, the Rangers will counter with Drew Smyly and his 5.90 ERA and 1.690 WHIP in 7 starts. Texas is also a mere 3-10 in their last 13 series openers and 1-5 in their last 6 following an off day. Take Baltimore! |
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06-04-19 | Marlins v. Brewers -168 | Top | 16-0 | Loss | -168 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
5* MLB - NL Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Brewers -168 Easy play here on Milwaukee as a big home favorite against the Marlins. Brewers won each of their final 2 games against the Padres by a score of 9-3. Milwaukee is averaging 5.6 runs/game and hitting .285 as a team over their last 7 games. That red-hot offense will be up against the likes of Pablo Lopez, who is an atrocious 1-4 with a 8.26 ERA and 1.623 WHIP in 6 road starts. Brewers will counter with Chase Anderson, who has returned from injury in prime form. While Anderson has struggled to go deep in games, he has a strong 2.78 ERA in 5 starts. Not going deep in games is also not a problem with Milwaukee and their strong bullpen, which should be close to full strength after a day off on Monday. Brewers are 7-2 in Anderson's last 9 home starts vs a team with a losing record, 20-7 as a team in their last 27 vs an opponent that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 21-6 in their last 27 games following an off day. Take Milwaukee! |
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06-03-19 | Phillies v. Padres +126 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 126 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Padres +126 Easy play on the Padres as a home dog against the Phillies in Monday's series opener. Philadelphia is getting way too much love in this spot because of the perceived edge on the mound with ace Aaron Nola starting. Nola has a perfect 6-0 record, but owns a very mediocre 4.18 ERA and 1.484 WHIP. That incldues an awful 5.85 ERA in 4 road starts. Phillies as a team also come in having lost 4 straight and a big reason for their recent struggles is the offense isn't producing. Philadelphia scored 3 or fewer in all 4 losses and were shutout on Sunday. Padres will counter here with Eric Lauer, who I really like in this spot. Lauer has been outstanding at home with a 2.67 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 6 starts. He's also trending in the right direction with a 1.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Take San Diego! |
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06-02-19 | Marlins v. Padres -175 | 9-3 | Loss | -175 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Padres -175 I got no problem laying a little extra juice on the Padres at home against the lowly Marlins. While San Diego lost yesterday's matchup, they have won 7 of their last 11 overall. Miami is also the team you want to be fading, especially on the road. Even with the win the Marlins are a mere 9-18 on the road this season. Padres will have Matt Strahm on the rubber and he's got a strong 3.21 ERA and 1.107 WHIP in 10 starts. He should have no problem shutting down a Miami offense that is only averaging 3 runs/game and hitting .227 as a team on the road. Take San Diego! |
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06-02-19 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -110 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Diamondbacks -110 It took a couple extra innings, but Arizona pulled out a 6-5 win in 11 innings on Saturday to snap a 5-game losing streak. I'm confident the Diamondbacks will ride the momentum from yesterday's win to a victory on Sunday. Arizona will have Merrill Kelly on the mound and while he's coming off a poor start at Colorado, he's got a sensational 2.64 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in 5 home starts. Mets will counter with Steven Matz, who has an ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 6 road starts. Also, don't be fooled by his 2.87 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's got an atrocious 1.659 WHIP during that stretch. New York is just 6-20 in their last 26 road games, 3-11 in their last 14 during Game 3 of a series and 1-6 in Matz's last 7 road starts vs a team with a losing record. Take Arizona! |
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06-02-19 | Nationals v. Reds +113 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
4* MLB - Early Money Line NO-BRAINER on Reds +113 This might seem like a great price to back the Nationals with Scherzer on the mound, but I really like this spot for Cincinnati. Reds have been playing well of late and Washington just keeps finding ways to lose when Scherzer gets the start. Nationals have won a mere 2 times in the 12 starts that Scherzer has made this season. Reds also have a pretty good starter of their own going in this one. Cincinnati turns to Sonny Gray, who has a strong 3.37 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 11 starts overall. Gray has been really good in his last 2 starts, allowing just 1 run on 10 hits with 16 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. Nationals are 2-9 on the season when playing in road games against a team with a losing record and Gray is 14-4 on the money line when listed as a favorite of -125 to a dog of +125. Take Cincinnati! |
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06-01-19 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -103 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
5* MLB - Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Diamondbacks -103 I love the matchup and value we are getting with Arizona at basically a pick'em at home with ace Zack Greinke on the mound. Greinke is 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.875 WHIP in 12 starts overall. As good as that is, and that's really good, he's even better at home. Greinke is 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in 5 home starts. I get the Mets have reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom on the mound, but he's not been the same guy in 2019. New York is a mere 4-7 in his last 11 starts and he comes in with a 5.06 ERA and 1.375 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Mets have also lost each of his last 4 road starts. Take Arizona! |
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06-01-19 | Nationals +130 v. Reds | 5-2 | Win | 130 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Nationals +130 This is just too good a price to pass up on the Nationals. The Reds did win the series opener 9-3 on Friday, but Washington is a very respectable 5-2 in their last 7 and a team I think could go on a run now that Trea Turner is back healthy. Either way, no reason for Cincinnati to be this big of a favorite. Nationals are sending out little known Erick Fedde, who has allowed just 1 run in 10 innings over his first two starts of 2019. Reds counter with Tanner Roark and they have lost 4 of his 5 home starts this season. Reds are also a mere 1-6 in their last 7 off a win. Take Washington! |
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06-01-19 | Royals v. Rangers -149 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
3* MLB - Money Line DESTROYER on Rangers -149 Easy play here on the Rangers. Texas has won 3 of their last 4 and have scored at least 6 runs in all 3 wins. They are averaging 5.9 runs/game at home and should eclipse that mark in this one. Kansas City will have Homer Bailey on the mound and he's got a 6.16 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in 5 road starts and a 9.58 ERA and 2.130 WHIP in his last 3 overall. On the flip side of this, Texas will send out veteran Lance Lynn, who turned a corner in the month of May. Lynn comes in with a 2.70 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in his last 3 starts. One of those was against these same Royals and he allowed just 1 run in 7 innings of a 16-1 blowout win. Just so happens it was Bailey on the other side in that game as well. Take Texas! |