Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-28-23 | Texas Tech v. LSU OVER 132 | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and LSU at 2 pm et on Saturday. We'll go the contrarian route with this play as LSU checks in off a deplorable 14-made field goal performance in a 60-40 loss to Arkansas last time out while Texas Tech reaches Baton Rouge off consecutive 'under' results. I wouldn't categorize either of these defenses as elite, or anything remotely close. Yet the Red Raiders have held their last two opponents to just 20 and 19 made field goals. Keep in mind, they still lost both of those games by double-digits, allowing 68 and 76 points against Kansas State and West Virginia, respectively. After facing a very difficult slate of opponents in SEC play, the Tigers will likely be happy to face a Big 12 opponent in Texas Tech on Saturday. While LSU's offense has been a big part of the problem lately, it has also allowed its last four opponents to knock down 35, 26, 29 and 23 field goals. The pace has been there but Texas Tech just hasn't been able to make its shots lately, noting that it is just one game removed from hoisting up a whopping 71 field goal attempts against Kansas State. Here, I do expect the Red Raiders to put it together offensively and help this one sail 'over' the reasonably low total. Finally, I'll note that these two teams produced 147 total points (with a closing total of 143.5) the last time they met in 2021. Take the over (10*). |
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01-28-23 | Alabama v. Oklahoma +6.5 | 69-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Alabama at 2 pm et on Saturday. We missed with Oklahoma at home against Baylor last Saturday as it led most of the way before coughing it up late in a two-point loss. From there, the Sooners seemingly suffered a bit of a hangover three nights later as they were blasted on the road against a good TCU team. Here, back home against an SEC opponent in Alabama, I look for Oklahoma to bounce back. The opportunities have been there for the Sooners, they simply haven't been taking advantage. Note that they've hoisted up 56, 57 and 64 field goal attempts in their last three games and should be afforded plenty of opportunities against an up-tempo Alabama squad here as well. While the Crimson Tide have faced the fourth most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom, the Sooners aren't far behind at sixth. Here, we'll note that Oklahoma is 8-1 ATS when coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Alabama is a woeful 1-9 ATS when coming off eight or more consecutive victories, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by just 2.6 points on average in that spot. I look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Oklahoma (8*). |
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01-27-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive wins but both of those games could have gone either way as they beat the Pelicans by four and the Celtics by three. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown off the big win over the Celtics on Tuesday (they were without Jimmy Butler in that game). The pace alone in Miami's recent contests makes grabbing a generous helping of points an attractive proposition. The Heat's last three games have seen a total of 149, 158 and 168 field goal attempts. Miami checks in having knocked down 33, 35 and 34 field goals over that stretch. In stark contrast, Orlando is as healthy as it has been all season and it shows - at least offensively. The Magic have made good on 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games - the lone outlier came in a contest where they still scored 123 points in a double-digit win over New Orleans. Yes, Orlando has gone an ugly 6-17 SU on the road this season but it is a far more respectable 11-11-1 ATS. Compare that with the Heat, who are 16-9 SU but just 8-15-2 ATS on their home floor. When you break down the numbers, the Heat actually don't hold much of an advantage at all in this matchup. Orlando has knocked down one less field goal per game on the road compared to Miami at home, but has done so on two fewer field goal attempts on average. At the other end of the floor, the Magic yield two more made field goals per game on the road compared to the Heat at home, but do so on four additional FG attempts given up per contest. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are a woeful 4-14 ATS when coming off an ATS victory this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points in that situation. They're also just 5-15 ATS when following up consecutive home wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.5 points on average in that spot. Take Orlando (10*). |
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01-27-23 | Golden Knights v. Rangers OVER 6 | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher scoring contest than most are expecting on Friday in Manhattan. The Golden Knights check in off consecutive losses to open their current road trip. In those two games they could muster only three goals against the Coyotes and Devils. Still, this is a team that averages an impressive 3.7 goals per game on the road this season, where it has posted a 15-7 record. The Rangers took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 5-1 score in Las Vegas back in early December. That's notable as the 'over' has gone a perfect 6-0 with Vegas seeking revenge for a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.4 goals in that situation. The 'over' is also a long-term 17-6 with the Golden Knights having lost six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here, leading to 7.1 total goals on average in that spot. The Rangers held a 2-1 lead until the final five minutes of the third period in Toronto two nights ago but ultimately gave up the tying goal and then the winner in overtime in a 3-2 setback. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-6 with the Rangers returning home off a road loss over the last three seasons, good for an average total of 7.0 goals scored in that situation. New York knows it can't just sit on a lead again the way it did in Toronto two nights ago. Expect a more aggressive gameplan from the Blueshirts as they look to head into an extended All-Star break on a high note. Take the over (8*). |
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01-26-23 | UCLA v. USC OVER 130 | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and USC at 9 pm et on Thursday. The first meeting between these Los Angeles rivals resulted in a low-scoring 60-58 UCLA victory back on January 5th. I expect a higher-scoring affair in Thursday's rematch as we're dealing with a reasonably low total, largely due to the recent run of 'unders' both teams have been on. It's only a matter of time before the Bruins enjoy an offensive explosion in my opinion. I believe we might just see that 'slingshot' effect in this matchup on Thursday. Note that UCLA has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of its last four games. Here, it faces a vulnerable USC defense that has had little success (or interest) in slowing its opponents' pace, yielding 24 or more made field goals in four of its last six games and 58 or more field goal attempts in five straight contests. On the flip side, the Trojans can shoot. They've incredible knocked down 24 or more field goals in 11 straight games. The Bruins are one of the best defensive teams in the nation without question but here, against a revenge-minded Trojans squad, I expect them to have their hands full. Take the over (8*). |
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01-26-23 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 221 | 113-95 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rockets were involved in a relatively low-scoring game against the Wizards last night. Regardless whether Donovan Mitchell is able to go for the Cavaliers (he re-injured his groin on Tuesday in New York) I still expect Cleveland to go off offensively in this one. The Rockets were fortunate the Wizards couldn’t make the most of their scoring opportunities last night or the result would have been far more lopsided. Houston allowed a whopping 98 field goal attempts in that contest. The Rockets have allowed four of their last five opponents to get off 91 or more field goal attempts. Meanwhile, Cleveland has hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games. In spite of that it has knocked down 40 or more field goals in each of those four contests. Defensively, the Cavs are terrific but they do face a Rockets squad that has made good on 42 or more field goals in four of its last five games. I do think we see Cleveland suffer a bit of a letdown defensively here after going against Memphis, Golden State, Milwaukee and New York in consecutive games. Take the over (8*). |
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01-26-23 | Red Wings v. Canadiens OVER 6 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canadiens sat back and defended, waiting for the Bruins to make a mistake and perhaps open up a scoring opportunity on Tuesday night (they ended up with only 22 shots on goal). The strategy worked well for the first two periods but Montreal ultimately fell by a 4-2 score. Here, I expect the Habs to employ a different strategy against a Red Wings squad that checks in allowing 3.8 goals per game on the road this season. Detroit has been stuck in the mud offensively, scoring three goals or less in six straight games. I do see this as an excellent opportunity to break out against a Montreal team that gives up 3.7 goals per contest on home ice. Yes, the Habs are missing a number of key contributors up front, leaving them in tough offensively but as we saw against the Bruins, guys like Nick Suzuki and Kirby Dach are more than capable of generating scoring chances and here, they'll have the benefit of facing a more beatable goaltender in Ville Husso (.897 save percentage in 11 road games this season) than they saw in standout Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman two nights ago. Take the over (8*). |
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01-25-23 | Louisville v. Boston College OVER 133.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Boston College at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting on Wednesday night in Chestnut Hill. Louisville is of course mired in a down season having lost 17 of 19 games overall and eight in a row entering Wednesday's contest. We had actually seen a bit of a spark from the Cardinals offensively for a stretch prior to getting held down by a pair of tough opponents in North Carolina and Pittsburgh in their last two games. I'm confident we'll see them do enough to help this total along on Wednesday, however, noting that Boston College has allowed five of its last eight opponents to get off 60 or more field goal attempts with the opposition knocking down 26 or more field goals in three of its last four contests. Offensively, the Eagles have been quietly 'filling it up', making good on 28, 26, 32, 21, 26 and 29 field goals over their last six games. Even in the low-water mark of 21 over that stretch, the Eagles still scored 63 points in a game that totalled 148 points against Wake Forest. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a low-scoring one, reaching only 121 total points. We're dealing with a considerably lower posted total this time around, however, noting that last year's game saw a closing total of 138. Take the over (10*). |
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01-25-23 | Hurricanes v. Stars -102 | 3-2 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Carolina at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. This is undoubtedly a game the Stars have had circled since dropping a 5-4 decision in Raleigh earlier this season. Dallas is well-positioned to get its revenge here, noting that it has gone 13-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 1.0 goal per contest. With that being said, the Stars aren't likely to take anything for granted after dropping a 3-2 decision against the Sabres on home ice on Monday. Carolina has won four of its last five games overall including two in a row heading into this non-conference clash. Note that the Hurricanes are just 7-13 when playing on the road after winning four of their last five games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. Worse still, the Canes are 7-20 in their last 27 road games when coming off consecutive wins by three goals or more, which is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that spot. Take Dallas (8*). |
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01-25-23 | Nuggets +8 v. Bucks | Top | 99-107 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I understand the logic behind the Nuggets being substantial underdogs here. After all, the Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot, on the road, while the Bucks return home after putting up a ridculous 150 points in a win over the Pistons two nights ago. They're not all that flashy by any means but the Nuggets have won an incredible 20 of their last 24 games. Based on the style Denver is employing right now, it's going to be tough for anyone to beat it by a considerable margin. The Nuggets have held seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They've limited 11 consecutive opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While Denver has made good on only 36 and 39 field goals in its last two contests that had a lot to do with the snail's pace those two games were played at. Here, they'll have a chance to get loose against a Bucks squad that has allowed their last six opponents to knock down 42, 45, 43, 46, 48 and 43 field goals, going a modest 3-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo just returned two nights ago but this is a team that has figured out how to win without him in recent years. Here, Milwaukee will be missing an underrated contributor in Bobby Portis after he suffered a knee injury. Note that the Bucks are just 29-48 ATS when returning home off a road win over a division opponent going all the way back to 1996. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-24-23 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Iowa State checks in off its first ATS defeat in seven games on Saturday as it dropped a narrow two-point decision on the road against Oklahoma State. I'm confident we'll see the Cyclones bounce back on Tuesday, however, as they return home to host Kansas State. The Wildcats enter off consecutive wins, both SU and ATS. I still think this is a team playing with fire as it consistently gives up a ton of scoring opportunities, having allowed all seven opponents in Big 12 play to get off at least 63 field goal attempts and six of those to hoist up 63+. They were fortunate that Texas Tech was unable to make good on its opportunities on Saturday as the Red Raiders knocked down only 23-of-71 field goal attempts in a 68-58 Kansas State victory. We saw a glimpse of what to expect from the Kansas State offense against a smothering defense as it could only muster 20 made field goals on a season-low 47 attempts. Here, it will face an Iowa State squad that has held nine straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Only one of the Cyclones last six opponents has managed to get off 50+ field goal attempts. On the flip side, Iowa State is coming off a poor shooting performance against Oklahoma State last time out. With that being said, you only have to go back four games to find the last time it made good on more than 30 field goals (34 in a win over Texas Tech). Noting that these two teams have enjoyed similar success this season but Iowa State has faced the 15th most difficult schedule in the country while Kansas State has gone against the 53rd toughest slate of opponents (according to KenPom), we'll lay the points with the Cyclones here. Take Iowa State (10*). |
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01-24-23 | Oklahoma State +8 v. Texas | 75-89 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma State plus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Oklahoma State as it hits the road to face Texas on Tuesday. The Cowboys are coming off consecutive SU and ATS wins, despite a sluggish offensive performance on Saturday against Iowa State. Oklahoma State made good on just 18-of-41 field goal attempts in that contest. Prior to that, the Cowboys had knocked down 22, 23 and 27 field goals in their previous three games and I'm confident we'll see them snap back offensively here. It also wasn't a top rate defensive effort from the Cowboys against the Cyclones as they allowed Iowa State to get off 63 field goal attempts - a high-water mark for Oklahoma State in Big 12 play this season. The Cowboys have still done a good job of keeping opposing offenses in check, holding each of their last six opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. The last time they gave up more than that was in a narrow two-point loss (but ATS cover) at Kansas back on New Year's Eve. Texas continues to rack up victories but has proven to be an awful bet ATS-wise. The Longhorns were in top form at both ends of the floor against West Virginia on Saturday. They've been inconsistent though, and it's worth noting that the only two occasions where they've connected on more than 26 field goals in Big 12 play this season, they've lost by 13 points against Kansas State and won by four against TCU, both at home. Texas has won consecutive meetings in this series but you would have to go all the way back to 2016-17 to find the last time it took three straight matchups against Oklahoma State. Finally, I'll point out that Oklahoma State has faced the 13th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Texas checks in having gone against the 52nd toughest slate of opponents. While Texas has obviously fared better with a 16-3 record, I simply feel it is laying too many points in this spot. Take Oklahoma State (8*). |
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01-24-23 | Wizards v. Mavs OVER 224.5 | Top | 127-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I think we see a 'slingshot' effect from the Mavericks offensively after they were held down by the Clippers last time out. In fact, Dallas is coming off consecutive low-scoring, slow-paced games against Miami and Los Angeles. I expect nothing of the sort here as the Mavs host the Wizards on Tuesday. Yes, Washington will be without Kristaps Porzingis and just dealt Rui Hachimura to the Lakers after he poured in 30 points last time out. I still anticipate the Wizards pushing the pace here, noting they've knocked down 42, 42 and 51 field goals over their last three games and have hoisted up 93 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Washington has had no success (or interest) in slowing its opponents' pace, allowing nine of its last 10 opponents to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time the Wiz held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. While Dallas held up well defensively in its last two games, it is still sorely missing the presence of Christian Wood on the inside and the blowout nature of those last two contests likely contributed to keeping the pace down. Note that prior to those two contests, the Mavs had allowed 44, 49, 43 and 49 made field goals over their last four games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-11 with the Wizards coming off two wins in their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-7 with Dallas coming off a loss this season, leading to an average total of 231.0 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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01-24-23 | Bruins v. Canadiens OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The talk in Montreal these days is more about who's not playing than who is. The Canadiens are as beaten up as any team in the league right now injury-wise, but continue to battle hard, as evidenced by Saturday's come-from-behind 3-2 overtime win over the Maple Leafs. Here, they'll face another tough test at home against the Bruins in what will be the first meeting between these division rivals this season. Boston enters having allowed just two goals over its last four games, all victories. It posted a 4-0 shutout win over the Sharks on Sunday and that's notable as it has gone 4-9, allowing an average of 3.5 goals (good for a total of 6.7 goals) when coming off a shutout win over the last three seasons. Also note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with Boston playing on the road coming off four straight wins by two goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 7.5 goals in that spot. The Bruins saw Canadiens goaltender Sam Montembault twice last season, scoring four goals on him on each occasion (they added an empty-netter for good measure in both games as well). Take the over (10*). |
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01-23-23 | Grizzlies -1 v. Kings | 100-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Sacramento at 10:40 pm et on Monday. While the Grizzlies staged an incredible second half comeback, they still fell short in Phoenix last night, marking their second straight loss to open their current road trip. I do like their chances of getting back in the win column as they head to Sacramento to face the Kings, who just lost for the first time in seven games on Saturday against Philadelphia. Despite last night's undesirable result, Memphis continues to play terrific defensive basketball, holding four of its last five opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. It's a much different story for the Kings as they've allowed nine consecutive opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. To find the last nine times the Grizzlies have allowed the opposition to eclipse that number in that department you would have to go all the way back to November 18th. Offensively, both teams have been thriving. Despite the dreadful start they got off to last night, the Grizzlies still managed to connect on 40 or more field goals for the 13th straight game. Here, we'll note that Memphis is a perfect 8-0 ATS when coming off consecutive road losses over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an incredible average margin of 14.0 points in that situation. The Grizz are also 13-3 ATS after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 15.3 points on average in that spot. Take Memphis (8*). |
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01-23-23 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 149.5 | Top | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 9 pm et on Monday. These two teams enjoyed far different results on Saturday as Kansas was embarrassed in a 23-point home loss against TCU while Baylor eked out a 62-60 road win over Oklahoma. Noting that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with Kansas coming off consecutive games in which it allowed 75 points or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 132.3 points, we'll confidently back the 'under' in a series that has generally been lower-scoring than most have expected over the years. Baylor got off to an 0-3 start in conference play, marked by a couple of high-scoring defeats at the hands of TCU and Kansas State, at home no less. Since then, we've seen the Bears lock in defensively, allowing 23, 23, 27 and 26 made field goals and no more than 60 field goal attempts over their last four games. For Kansas, it is in a clear bounce-back spot here after getting lit up for 31 made field goals against TCU on Saturday. Poor defensive efforts don't pop up often when it comes to the Bill Self-coached Jayhawks and I'm confident we'll see them respond positively in that department on Monday. Prior to Saturday's game, Kansas had held an incredible 15 of its first 18 opponents this season to 25 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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01-23-23 | Hawks v. Bulls -1 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Having strung together consecutive wins - as healthy as they've been in a quite a while with both Zach Lavine and Demar Derozan available - and with each of their next four games coming against Eastern Conference opponents, this is where the Bulls need to get on a run if they want to put themselves in good position to reach the playoffs (they currently sit in 10th place in the conference). Tonight's opponent, the Hawks, are one of the teams Chicago is looking up at in the Eastern Conference standings. I like what I've seen from the Bulls lately. Save for a poor showing against the red hot Thunder, they've held four of their last five opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and have certainly rounded into form offensively, knocking down 48 and 50 field goals themselves over their last two contests. The Hawks have also been hot offensively but their defensive play has left a lot to be desired. Atlanta checks in having allowed its last four opponents to make good on 43, 44, 49 and 45 field goals. Keep in mind, the Hawks are just 11-13 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points per contest. The Bulls check in 12-10 at the United Center, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 points on average. To find the last time Atlanta won a game here in Chicago, you would have to go back to December of 2020. Take Chicago (10*). |
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01-23-23 | Panthers v. Rangers -130 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Florida at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark fading the Panthers on Saturday as they outplayed the Wild in a 5-3 home victory. Here, I won't hesitate to come back with the same play as Florida hits the road to face the Rangers in Manhattan. The Panthers have now won consecutive games but consistency hasn't exactly been their calling card this season as they've yet to put together more than two victories in a row. They'll be hard-pressed to do so again here in my opinion as they catch the Rangers well-rested and undoubtedly in a foul mood after dropping a 3-1 decision against the league's best team, the Boston Bruins, last Thursday night. It's worth noting that the Rangers haven't dropped consecutive games since December 27th and 29th with the second of those losses coming by way of a shootout against the Lightning in Tampa. Here, they'll catch the Panthers banged-up with Eric Staal, Sergei Bobrovsky, Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad all suffering injuries in the last week. Goaltender Spencer Knight is expected to be back between the pipes after missing time due to injury, but that's not necessarily a good thing as he has posted a less-than-impressive .893 save percentage with the Panthers winning just four of his 10 starts on the road this season. Rangers all-world netminder Igor Shesterkin has been heating up lately, recording a sterling .922 save percentage over his last four games. Take New York (10*). |
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01-22-23 | Grizzlies -8.5 v. Suns | Top | 110-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Phoenix at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We just saw this matchup on Monday as the Grizzlies rolled to a 30-point home victory. While the Suns would certainly like to get some quick revenge here at home, I don't feel they're well-positioned to do so. Note that Phoenix has been getting healthier with Cam Johnson returning this past Thursday. In fact, the Suns have now won consecutive games after posting a five-point victory against the Pacers last night. But now they're in a tough back-to-back spot with a number of key contributors questionable to play due to injury management or otherwise. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are just one day removed from a tough one-point loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles. They remain locked-in defensively, having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, the Grizz continue to roll along offensively, making good on an incredible 43 or more field goals in 12 consecutive games. In fact, their 43-for-102 shooting performance against the Lakers on Friday was their low-water mark going all the way back to December 27th. The Suns have been lagging defensively. Prior to last night they had allowed their last four opponents to knock down 48, 47, 52 and 43 field goals. Last night's opponent, the Pacers, quite simply had an off night shooting as they actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts but only knocked down 36 of them. Usually stingy defensively when full strength, Phoenix has now allowed four of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts. I expect the Grizzlies to take advantage on Sunday. Take Memphis (10*). |
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01-22-23 | Jets v. Flyers OVER 6.5 | 5-3 | Win | 107 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a bit of a 'slingshot' effect from the Jets offensively last night as they rebounded after being held to a single goal in consecutive games (both losses) in Montreal and Toronto with a five-goal outburst in Ottawa last night. I expect a similar situation to unfold regarding the Flyers here after they were limited to just three goals in their last two contests against the Blackhawks and Red Wings. Note that Philadelphia is averaging 2.9 goals per game on home ice this season and is likely to catch Jets backup goaltender David Rittich on Sunday, noting that he represents a considerable drop-off in talent from regular starter Connor Hellebuyck, who is a Vezina Trophy candidate (and former winner). Likewise, the Jets will likely see the Flyers backup goaltender Felix Sandstrom after Carter Hart started last night's game. Sandstrom owns a less-than-impressive .888 save percentage in eight games this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 7-1 with the Flyers coming off consecutive 'under' results this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 7.7 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 18-8 with Philadelphia coming off a game that totalled three goals or less over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals in that situation. Take the over (8*). |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3.5 | Top | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 105 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. While the 49ers have been on an incredible run, not to mention the fact they've been the best bet in the NFL since mid-November, I can't help but feel they're just scratching the surface and dare I say still undervalued as they head into the Divisional Round of the playoffs on Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys impressed in Monday's complete dismantling of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tampa. However, that lopsided result had a lot to do with the inept nature of the Bucs, who by all accounts were nothing more than a middle-of-the-road team all season, benefiting from residing in a weak NFC South division. Tampa Bay didn't exactly throw a haymaker against what was admittedly a well-prepared Dallas squad that looked like a team on a mission after suffering an embarrassing loss on the road against Washington in the final week of the regular season. The Cowboys are in line for a 'shock to the system' here, however, as they stay on the road for a fourth straight game to face a 49ers team that is quite simply 'firing on all cylinders'. San Francisco took a punch in the first half against the Seahawks last Saturday and I'm glad they did. The fact is, the Niners have faced a fairly breezy schedule going all the way back to mid-November. A little bit of adversity wasn't the worst thing for them to face in the Wild Card round and I believe they're better for it. To say that the Niners are a difficult team to defend is putting it mildly. They have a multi-pronged attack that is unlikely anything we've seen in recent years and they've been taken to the next level by rookie QB Brock Purdy who continues to prove he is indeed the 'real deal'. The Cowboys have only really faced 'dink-and-dunk' type offenses over the last three games, so again I believe they're in for a bit of a reality check here. While I have a lot of respect for the Cowboys offense, I'm still not convinced they'll lean as heavily on RB Tony Pollard as they should, still bent on giving Ezekiel Elliott his share of the pie in an offense where he should realistically only play a bit part (in my opinion). QB Dak Prescott avoided the mistakes that had previously plagued him against the Bucs on Monday, but he was rarely under much duress in that contest. He's sure to face a lot more pressure against the 49ers elite defense here. The Niners have absolutely stamped out opposing running games this season and likely puts a whole lot more on Dak's plate - similar to what we saw in recent road games against the Titans and Commanders in which the Cowboys ultimately turned the football over five times (they didn't commit a single turnover in Monday's win in Tampa). The 49ers have forced at least one turnover in 10 consecutive games and two or more in eight of those contests. This is a rematch of last year's Wild Card game between these two teams in Dallas - a game the 49ers won by a 23-17 score. That final score was actually flattering to the Cowboys in my opinion. I expect San Francisco to ultimately pull away for a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 46 | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and San Francisco at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. 'Over' bettors were thwarted by four Brett Maher missed extra points in Tampa on Monday, myself included, but I don't expect this total to fall anywhere close to being in that 'danger zone' on Sunday. Both of these offenses are loaded, that much we know. While this is a more difficult matchup for the Cowboys offense than they faced against the under-achieving Buccaneers defense on Monday, there is a path to success for Dallas should it choose to attack the 49ers through the air. In a game where the potential is certainly there for the Cowboys to be playing from behind much of the afternoon, I'm expecting a very high pass-rate from Dak Prescott and the offense in this one, to varying success. It's going to be a 'pick-your-poison' type of situation for the Cowboys aggressive defense against a multi-pronged 49ers offense that is absolutely peaking at the right time. Maybe the hype has gotten a little too big around San Francisco's 'Mr. Irrelevant' QB Brock Purdy but I still believe he's the real deal and will orchestrate another strong playoff performance here. He simply has too many weapons at his disposal not to find considerable success. Interestingly, when these two teams met in last year's playoffs, we saw a closing total of 51 points. That's despite what I would consider to be two weaker, and certainly less aggressive and more risk-averse offenses that we'll see take the field this time around. That game ultimately reached only 40 points in what was a disjointed affair (remember the 49ers were comfortable putting the game in the hands of their ground attack and defense with Jimmy Garropolo under center). I expect nothing of the sort here as this has the potential to be one of, if not the most entertaining game of Divisional Weekend. Take the over (8*). |
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01-22-23 | Washington State v. Colorado UNDER 137 | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Colorado at 6 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Thursday, snapping a three-game 'under' streak for Washington State and a four-game run of 'unders' for Colorado. Here, I expect a return to normal, so to speak, with a relatively low-scoring affair between the Cougars and Buffaloes. Nothing went right for Washington State last time out as it couldn't generate any sustained offense, nor could it sniff out a stop against Utah (the Utes shot 31-of-56 from the field). I do expect the Cougars to bounce back here, particularly at the defensive end of the floor, where they had held their previous three opponents to 20, 19 and 22 made field goals. It's also worth noting they've limited four of their last five opponents to 56 field goal attempts or fewer. The only occasion where they didn't was largely game-script dependent as they had an up-tempo Arizona squad playing from behind most of the night in a stunning double-digit road victory. Colorado is coming off a poor defensive performance of its own as it allowed Washington to knock down 27-of-50 field goal attempts on Thursday. The Buffaloes made good on 28 field goals themselves, representing a high-water mark since hitting 30 field goals in a narrow loss at Cal on New Year's Eve. Prior to Thursday's poor performance, Colorado had held its last two Pac-12 opponents to just 14 and 18 made field goals and 41 and 42 points here on its home floor. Take the under (8*). |
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01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles -7 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Giants (and the 'over') in last Sunday's 'upset' win in Minnesota. While a lot of bettors are confident going back to the well with the G-Men in an underdog role again here, I think they're looking for something that's quite simply not there. The Eagles are an elite team this season, in all facets. The bye week certainly helped their cause with QB Jalen Hurts and RB Miles Sanders among those looking to get back to 100% health, or as close to it as possible. Last week's matchup with the Vikings was a dream scenario for the Giants as Minnesota featured a listless defense that couldn't pressure the quarterback, couldn't stop the run and couldn't stop the pass. The Giants were effectively able to do whatever they wanted offensively - everything worked. I expect a much different story to unfold here. The one time the Eagles saw Giants RB Saquon Barkley this season, they held him to just 48 yards. Last week's big performance through the air from New York QB Daniel Jones was largely matchup-related. He's going to find the going a lot tougher against the Eagles shutdown secondary led by Darius Slay and James Bradberry. On the flip side, the Giants figure to have an extremely difficult time slowing the Eagles offense, particularly on the ground. Sanders absolutely torched the Giants in their regular season matchup in New York, finding the end zone twice on 155 yards. The presence of Giants CB Adoree' Jackson (he missed the two regular season meetings) certainly helps their cause, but the emergence of Eagles WR Devonta Smith to compliment A.J. Brown figures to present New York with a 'pick-your-poison' situation here. As is often the case, look for the superior, not to mention rested team to roll in this Divisional Round matchup. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 48 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday night in Philadelphia. The first meeting between these two teams was a blowout victory in favor of the Eagles, 48-22 in New York back in early December. The rematch wasn't all that notable as the Giants rested their starters in a much lower-scoring defeat. Here, I think we're in line for something in between with the total quite simply proving too high. On a positive note for the Giants, they'll have standout CB Adoree' Jackson on the field for this the third meeting between these two teams this season. Jackson obviously played a big role in last week's 'upset' win in Minnesota, helping stamp out Justin Jefferson's big-play potential. He'll look to do the same against Eagles WR A.J. Brown on Saturday, likely to mixed results. There's no denying the Giants are playing well up front with Kayvon Thibodeaux getting better as the season has gone on. On the flip side, the Eagles boast perhaps the league's best defensive front and should give the Giants offensive line fits all night long. Giants QB Daniel Jones was able to get loose on numerous occasions against the Vikings last week and found plenty of success through the air, just as he did in the teams' regular season matchup. This is a much different challenge, however, and I don't anticipate Jones being afforded a lot of time in the pocket, nor do I expect New York's lukewarm wide receiving corps to enjoy much open field. There is a path for the Giants offense to stay on the field and effectively shorten this game by picking their spots to run with Jones and also work the slot in Avonte Maddox's absence for the Eagles. I'm just not convinced we'll see the Giants end many drives with 7's on the board. We've certainly seen the Eagles jump ahead and then take the air out of the football at times this season. They have that type of offense that can control the football for long periods and I'm confident we'll see that as this game wears on. Running the football figures to be a key part of the Eagles offensive gameplan on Saturday after RB Miles Sanders picked up 155 yards and a pair of scores against the Giants earlier this season. New York can take some solace in the fact that it did effectively stamp out the Vikings ground attack last Sunday, albeit in a much different game script than they're likely to see on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season was the only meaningful one - as I mentioned the Giants rested their starters in the Week 18 rematch. That game saw a closing total of just 44.5 points. Of course, it also featured 70 actual points. I don't think we're in for another high-scoring affair here, however, as the Giants have done enough to instill confidence defensively and the return of Jackson has given them a boost against the pass. Note that since that 48-22 loss to the Eagles on December 11th, the Giants have given up 12, 27, 10, 22 and 24 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-21-23 | Bucks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. There's still a cloud of uncertainty around the status of the stars of both of these teams with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Donovan Mitchell questionable to play in Saturday's fourth meeting of the season. It sounds like there's a better chance that Giannis will return than Mitchell but regardless, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cavs at home. Cleveland fell in stunning fashion against a Warriors squad that was resting its stars last night. Needless to say, I think the Cavs took a win for granted given the undermanned nature of the Warriors in that one. I don't expect Cleveland to have any trouble regrouping for a visit from one of the NBA's elite teams in the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off consecutive near-perfect offensive showings in wins over the Pacers and Raptors at home. Lost in the Bucks recent offensive success is the fact that their defensive play hasn't been up to par. They've allowed their last four opponents to knock down 42, 45, 43 and 46 field goals. They've also had little success (or interest) in slowing their opponents' pace, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs have limited seven of their last nine opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. They're allowing just 39 made field goals per contest at home this season, a big reason they've gone 19-5 SU and 16-8 ATS here in Cleveland. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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01-21-23 | Wild +102 v. Panthers | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Florida at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. The Wild dropped a 5-2 decision in Carolina two nights ago but I'm confident we'll see them bounce back as they head to Florida to face the Panthers on Saturday. Note that Minnesota remains a winning team on the road this season, where it has held the opposition to just 2.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, consistency certainly hasn't been the Panthers calling card, noting that their longest win streak this season lasted just two games. They're 0-7 when coming off a win over a division opponent this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.4 goals in that situation. Minnesota will be a revenge-minded team here having dropped the last three meetings in this series. That's the Panthers longest win streak over the Wild all-time, going all the way back to when Minnesota entered the league as an expansion team back in 2000. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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01-21-23 | Baylor v. Oklahoma +1.5 | 62-60 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Baylor at 4 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot for Oklahoma here after it fell in lopsided fashion on the road against rival Oklahoma State on Wednesday. The Sooners are actually coming off consecutive ATS defeats, playing subpar defense in both contests. This is a better defensive team than it has shown lately, though, at least in my opinion. Keep in mind, Oklahoma has faced the eighth most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Offensively, the Sooners have been fine, essentially on par with Saturday's opponent, Baylor. Oklahoma arguably has the x-factor in this contest in former Nevada standout Grant Sherfield - one of the most underrated scorers in the country. Baylor checks into this contest off three consecutive victories both SU and ATS. The Bears quite simply shot the lights out against Texas Tech on Tuesday but I don't expect them to repeat that performance against a tougher defensive foe here. Take Oklahoma (8*). |
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01-20-23 | Nets v. Jazz -6.5 | 117-106 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Friday. There's always a risk of looking foolish when backing a team one night, losing, and then fading them the next night. I'm not afraid to admit when I'm wrong, however, and I was off the mark with the Nets last night in Phoenix. That was an ideal bounce-back spot for Brooklyn after an embarrassing loss in San Antonio to open its current road trip (we did win with the 'under' in that game). What we saw, though, was a rather listless performance from the Nets, falling behind by 20 points before staging a 'false rally' in the fourth quarter to make the final score more respectable than it otherwise would have been. The Nets got about as much as they could expect from Kyrie Irving as he played through a calf injury, scoring 30 points in the loss. Curiously, Irving played 38 minutes in what was a lopsided affair most of the way. Utah checks in off a blowout win over the Clippers two nights ago. Lauri Markkanen continued his red hot tear to pace the Jazz offense on that night. Utah is now 4-1 SU in its last five games and riding a three-game ATS winning streak. While it has been red hot offensively, knocking down 43 or more field goals in six of its last eight games, it has also seemingly righted the ship defensively, holding four of its last five opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Nets have been hanging tough defensively but offensively they're just not the same without Kevin Durant in the lineup. Last night marked the first time in six games that they eclipsed the 40 field goal mark and that was only thanks to the Suns letting down their guard leading by 20 points entering the fourth quarter. If the Nets aren't shooting the lights out, it's a struggle to put up a lot of points as they average just 84 field goal attempts per game this season. The Jazz average five more field goal attempts per contest by comparison, and eight additional tries per game from beyond the arc. Take Utah (8*). |
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01-20-23 | St. Peter's +4 v. Marist | Top | 61-57 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Peter's plus the points over Marist at 7 pm et on Friday. I like the way this spot sets up for a down-trodden St. Peter's squad that has lost five games in a row, going 1-4 ATS along the way. Marist is at the opposite end of the spectrum right now, having won three straight contests both SU and ATS. Still, I'm anticipating a reversal of those trends on Friday night. St. Peter's continues to play exceptional defensive basketball. The Peacocks always seem to have a terrific defensive system in place and they've stayed true to it this season, holding opponents to an average of just 20 made field goals on 48 attempts per game. Their last three opponents have knocked down just 18, 18 and 19 field goals. I'm confident we'll see St. Peter's frustrate the Marist offense here after it shot exceptionally well over the last few games. Keep in mind, the Red Foxes have actually gotten off 55 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight contests so it's not as if they've had a wealth of scoring opportunities. In stark contrast, St. Peter's has hoisted up 62 or more field goal attempts in three of its last six games. The difference here is, I expect some of those Peacocks shots to start falling, noting that Marist has consistently allowed in the mid-to-high 20's in terms of opponents' made field goals per game this season. Finally, I'll point out that St. Peter's is 68-41 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of its last six games going all the way back to 1997, as is the case here. Take St. Peter's (10*). |
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01-19-23 | UCLA v. Arizona State OVER 135 | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Arizona State at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' has cashed in each of UCLA's last seven games but I look for that streak to come to an end on Thursday as the Bruins hit the road for the first time since New Year's Day to face Arizona State in Tempe. UCLA absolutely manhandled Utah and Colorado in its last two games, holding those two opponents to just 18 and 15 made field goals, respectively. It faces a much different challenge on the road here, however, noting that Arizona State has knocked down 25, 31, 29, 33 and 24 field goals since the return of Pac-12 play on New Year's Eve. With that being said, the Sun Devils are in bounce-back mode here in some sense after getting off only 49 field goal attempts in a bit of a sloppy affair against Oregon State last time out (they still scored 74 points in that contest). We know Arizona State will be looking to push the pace here, noting that it has hoisted up 62 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last nine games. Defensively, the Sun Devils are likely to have their hands full here. They've allowed 27, 24, 25, and 24 made field goals over their last four games and have had little success (or interest) in slowing down their opponents' tempo this season. UCLA didn't shoot particularly well against Colorado last time out, knocking down only 38.1% of its attempts from the field. That's notable as the last two times it was held under 40% shooting in Pac-12 play, it responded by making good on exactly 29 field goals in its next contest. The Bruins are averaging 30 made field goals and 76.7 points per game this season with no considerable drop-off in production away from home, where they've hit 29 field goals per game (on one fewer attempt compared to their season average) while averaging 73.7 points per contest. The most recent meeting between these two teams totalled only 118 points last February, however prior to that each of the last 12 matchups in the series produced at least 143 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-19-23 | Nets -1 v. Suns | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Nets are fresh off an embarrassing loss in San Antonio two nights ago (we won with the 'under' in that game). That marked their third straight loss although perhaps it was to be expected with Kyrie Irving sidelined (remember Kevin Durant is on the shelf as well). Kyrie is expected to return from that one-game absence on Thursday. The Suns will likely have Cam Johnson back and it sounds like there's an outside chance that Chris Paul could be back in the lineup as well. I simply see a Phoenix squad that is completely out of sorts right now, and will likely remain that way until its regulars get back up to speed. Note that the Suns have been torched for 48, 47 and 52 made field goals over their last three games. While they had been at least limiting their opponents' pace for a stretch, they've now allowed three of their last four foes to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. It's a much different story for Brooklyn. It has held five straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and three of its last five to 38 or less. Offensively, it's been a grind without KD in the lineup but I expect scoring opportunities to be in abundance against a listless Suns defense on Thursday. Note that Phoenix took both meetings between these two teams last season. Look for the revenge-minded Nets to rebound here, noting they've gone 25-10 ATS when playing on the road following an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.0 points on average in that situation. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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01-19-23 | Capitals -1.5 v. Coyotes | 4-0 | Win | 145 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington -1.5 goals over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll back the Capitals on the puck-line in this spot as they look to bounce back from a poor performance in a 4-2 home loss to the Wild two nights ago. That was a tough situation for Washington as it was returning home on no rest after rallying from a 3-0 deficit to defeat the Islanders 4-3 in overtime on Long Island the night previous. I expect a much sharper performance from Washington here as it begins a three-game western road swing. While the Caps won by just a single goal on the road against the Isles earlier this week, I'm willing to lay the extra goal here noting that Washington's 11 road victories this season have come by 3, 3, 4, 1, 3, 3, 4, 1, 4, 4 and 1 goal this season (you get the idea). Arizona is coming off a 4-3 victory over the reeling Red Wings on home ice but that only served to snap an nine-game losing streak. The Coyotes are allowing 3.5 goals per game at Mullett Arena this season, where five of their last six losses have come by at least two goals. Under head coach Peter Laviolette, the Capitals have gone 13-4 when playing on the road after giving up three goals or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. Take Washington -1.5 (8*). |
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01-18-23 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This is obviously a big game for both teams but it's desperation time for Oklahoma State as it comes off three consecutive Big 12 defeats. Of note for our purposes, the Cowboys have seen each of their last seven games go 'under' the total. Oklahoma State lacks a true go-to scorer and it shows as it has been held to 67, 67, 46, 57 and 58 points in Big 12 play. The Cowboys tried to push the pace in their last two games, getting off 66 and 60 field goal attempts but only managed to knock down 22 and 23 of those shots against Kansas State and Baylor, respectively. Here, they'll face a good Oklahoma defense that's coming off a bad game. The Sooners allowed West Virginia to make good on 31-of-55 field goals in their most recent contest, allowing 76 points in a narrow one-point victory. Note that prior to that, they had held four of their last five opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Oklahoma has one of the more underrated offensive players in the country in former Nevada standout Grant Sherfield. It will be in tough here, however, noting that Oklahoma State has allowed an average of just 20 made field goals per contest at home this season and has held eight of its last 11 opponents to 21 or fewer in that department. The fact that the Cowboys allowed 74 points last time out is notable as they've given up 56, 51 and 49 points on three previous occasions after allowing more than 70 points in a game this season. Take the under (10*). |
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01-18-23 | Wizards v. Knicks UNDER 222 | Top | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. While both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Monday, it's still been a bit of a grind offensively of late. Monday's game marked the first time in three contests the Wizards managed to knock down more than 38 field goals. Playing against the Warriors - a team that often plays at a break-neck pace - certainly helped their cause. All told, Washington has topped out at 42 field goals or less in six straight games, yet the 'over' has inexplicably gone 5-1 over that stretch. I do expect things to level out in that regard, at least in the short-term. The Knicks have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in six consecutive games as well, and only got to that number thanks to overtime last time out against Toronto. New York has quietly been locked-in defensively, limiting seven of its last nine opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. It held this same Washington squad to 36-of-92 shooting just last week. While last week's matchup did find its way 'over' the total, it didn't eclipse the number we're dealing with tonight (at the time of writing). It's worth noting that we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since back in 2018 - that goes back a whopping 17 matchups. Take the under (10*). |
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01-18-23 | Bruins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Bruins exploded for six goals in Monday's easy shutout win over the Flyers. I do expect them to find the going a little tougher on Wednesday as they travel to Long Island, where they've scored a grand total of 12 goals in their last nine trips. New York is coming off a 4-3 overtime loss against Washington on Monday (we won with the Capitals in that game), blowing a 3-0 lead in that contest. The Isles are still giving up just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season and the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 when they play at home off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 3.8 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 20-9 with New York at home off a loss in which it allowed four goals or more over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 4.8 goals in that situation. In the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season Boston won 4-3 in a shootout. It's worth noting that Jake Debrusk scored two goals and added an assist for the B's in that victory. He's currently sidelined with a leg injury. Take the under (10*). |
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01-17-23 | Clemson v. Wake Forest OVER 147 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Clemson and Wake Forest at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between two red hot ACC squads in Clemson and Wake Forest on Tuesday night. The Tigers are fresh off a 72-64 victory over Duke on Saturday - their seventh straight victory. They've been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 25 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. While they've done a good job defensively as well, they've shown little ability (or interest) in slowing down their opponents' pace, allowing 63 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five games. That should open the door for a blazing hot Wake Forest offense that has made good on 28, 29, 30 and 34 field goals over its last four contests. You would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Demon Deacons were held to fewer than 77 points. Like Clemson, Wake hasn't put much of a priority on slowing the opposition, yielding an average of 61 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. Prior to Saturday's blowout win over struggling Boston College (in which it allowed just 22 made field goals), Wake had allowed eight straight opponents to knock down 26 or more field goals. Of course, this will be a rematch of a meeting between these two teams back in December. That was a strange affair as Clemson got off only 43 field goal attempts, making good on 22 of them, yet scored 77 points in a 20-point rout. Wake has rounded into form since then and I'm confident we'll see a much more competitive, entertaining affair this time around. Take the over (10*). |
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01-17-23 | Nets v. Spurs UNDER 235 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This Nets team is just not the same without Kevin Durant on the floor. I realize that's a major understatement and fairly obvious to even the most casual NBA observer. But it's worth noting as we work with a total in the mid-230's with the Nets having just come off a winless two-game homestand that saw them struggle mightily from an offensive standpoint, knocking down just 38 and 39 field goals while scoring 98 and 102 points. The Spurs are of course one of, not the league's worst defensive team. With that being said, I do think they're better than they've shown in their last three games, allowing 135, 144 and 132 points against three teams that love to push the pace in the Grizzlies, Warriors and Kings over that stretch. While the Nets offense has regressed without Durant, their defense has held strong, limiting four straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals heading into this contest. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in each of their last five games. When these teams last met in Brooklyn on January 2nd, it was no contest as the Nets rolled to a 139-103 victory. Keep in mind, Kevin Durant paced Brooklyn's offense on that night, recording a double-double with 25 points and 11 assists. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 130-106 with the Spurs playing at home off consecutive ATS losses under head coach Gregg Popovich. Interestingly, the 'under' is 26-12 with Nets head coach Jacque Vaughn's teams playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games ATS as well. Take the under (10*). |
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01-17-23 | Jets -1.5 v. Canadiens | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg -1.5 goals over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Canadiens on the puck-line after they pulled off a 2-1 upset victory over the Rangers in New York on Sunday. Note that they'll be playing their third game in four nights in three different cities here on Monday, and they'll do so with a number of key contributors suddenly sidelined with injuries, including Joel Armia, Juraj Slafkovski and Jake Evans. Note that the Habs have gone three games without losing by two goals or more - their longest such streak of the season. I expect that run to end here as the Jets come in playing their best hockey of the season, winners of eight of their last nine games, outscoring the opposition by a 35-24 margin over that stretch. They've allowed a grand total of just four goals over their last three games. This is a matchup Winnipeg has thrived in since the start of last season, taking all three meetings while outscoring Montreal by a 15-8 margin. Take Winnipeg -1.5 goals (10*). |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs +3 | 31-14 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points first half over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I see this as a 'shock to the system' spot for the Cowboys after closing out the regular season with games against Josh Dobbs and the Titans and Sam Howell and the Commanders. Neither of those quarterbacks instilled much fear in the Cowboys defense but this is a much different situation on Monday as they go against Tom Brady and an 'as healthy as its been all season' supporting cast of weapons. To be honest, I'm not all that confident in putting this game into the hands of head coaches Mike McCarthy and Raheem Morris and their decision-making in the second half. Instead, we'll back the Bucs with a one-point cushion in the game's first 30 minutes, noting that Tampa Bay has led 21-16 and 12-3 in the two previous meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season and was also tied or leading in three of its final four regular season contests. Take Tampa Bay first half (8*). |
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01-16-23 | Capitals +100 v. Islanders | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I'm not buying what the Islanders are selling right now. Sure, they snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over the Canadiens on home ice on Saturday but that victory was about as unimpressive as it gets. New York jumped ahead 2-0 in the game's first seven minutes but then never found the back of the net, and played generally uninspired hockey, for the rest of the contest. Here, the Isles will be hosting a desperate Capitals squad looking to snap its own two-game skid off consecutive upset losses at the hands of the Flyers. While Washington is just 10-12 on the road this season, it has managed to outscore opponents by 0.2 goals on average in the visitor's role. New York is 13-8 at UBS Arena but has looked anything but intimidating on home ice lately, going an even 4-4 over its last eight games on home ice. Worse still, the Isles check in a miserable 8-13 in their last 21 games overall. Here, we'll note that New York is 0-6 after scoring two goals or less in five or more consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Caps are 114-100 (but most notably +222 net games) when playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in their previous game going all the way back to 1996. Take Washington (10*). |
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01-16-23 | Princeton v. Pennsylvania UNDER 145.5 | 72-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Princeton and Pennsylvania at 7 pm et on Monday. I like the bounce-back spot for both of these teams defensively after both were involved in 'over' results on Saturday. Princeton inexplicably allowed a middle-of-the-road Brown squad to knock down 28-of-53 field goal attempts in a 72-70 loss. That marked the first time in five games the Tigers allowed an opponent to shoot better than 42.1% from the field. Penn dropped a 75-71 decision at Dartmouth, allowing the Big Green to shoot 27-of-58 from the field. While the Quakers have knocked down 26 or more field goals in four straight games, they've also faced a fairly favorable schedule over that stretch, favored in three of those games with the other coming against the fastest-paced team in the Ivy League, Cornell. I think we're in for a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair here, noting that the most recent meeting produced 163 points in a Princeton blowout win last March, but we haven't seen consecutive meetings in this series go 'over' the total since three straight did back in 2017-18. Take the under (8*). |
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01-16-23 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 228.5 | 119-132 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Milwaukee at 2:40 pm et on Monday. The Bucks have seen the 'under' cash in four straight games entering Monday's matinee affair against the down-trodden Pacers in Milwaukee. The wheels came off for Indiana defensively in Saturday's 130-112 home loss against the Grizzlies. Tyrese Haliburton is of course sidelined indefinitely for the Pacers and that hurts them defensively more than anything else. Indiana has zero answers for the Grizzlies offense on Saturday and will be hard-pressed to bounce back in this tough road matchup against a Bucks team fresh off a two-game sweep at the hands of the Heat in Miami (with Giannis Antetokounmpo set to return from a two-game absence on Monday). We know the Pacers will continue to force the issue offensively, noting they've hoisted up 101 and 103 field goal attempts in their last two games. The Bucks have done little to slow opposing up-tempo offenses this season, entering Monday's contest having yielded 92 or more field goal attempts to eight of their last 10 opponents. Milwaukee has proven to be a much stronger offensive team at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 43-of-90 shooting and just north of 117 points per game on its home floor, with the 'over' cashing at a 14-7 clip. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 20-8 with the Pacers coming off a loss by 15 or more points over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 235.5 points in that spot. Take the over (8*). |