Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-16-23 | Kings v. Nets OVER 237.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The 'pop-gun' Bulls offense struck again last night as we just missed with the 'over' in the Kings 117-114 win in Chicago. The fact that the game even got to 231 total points was encouraging given the Kings got off just 78 field goal attempts while the Bulls knocked down only 38-of-97 from the field. Here, I'm expecting both teams to take part in a track meet in Brooklyn. The Nets certainly looked road-weary two nights ago as they wrapped up a five-game in eight-night trip in Oklahoma City. Brooklyn clearly ran out of gas late in that game, unable to make a double-digit halftime lead stand up. I do think we see the Nets bounce right back offensively following an off day on Wednesday. Prior to Tuesday's game, Brooklyn had made good on 40 or more field goals in four straight games. Defensively, the Nets have been matador-like, however, allowing 44, 48, 45 and 45 made field goals over their last four games and more than 40 in nine of their last 11 contests. Each of their last four opponents has gotten off at least 90 field goal attempts. Take the over (8*). |
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03-16-23 | Avalanche v. Senators +125 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ottawa over Colorado at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll fade the Avalanche here on the heels of three straight wins including last night's come-from-behind 2-1 shootout win in Toronto. The Senators have undoubtedly had this rematch circled on their calendar dropping a embarrassing 7-0 meeting in Colorado back in January. Ottawa enters with its playoff hopes fading fast after a disastrous 1-4 road trip out west. The Sens are back home though, where they've gone 19-14 and have outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals per game this season. Also note that Ottawa is a long-term 81-67 when coming off consecutive road losses, as is the case here. Take Ottawa (8*). |
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03-16-23 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were just involved in a relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday in Pittsburgh with the Penguins prevailing by a 3-2 score in overtime. That was the second 3-2 result in as many matchups between the two squads this season. Yet here we are working with a total of 6.5 again in Thursday's rematch. That has something to do with the fact that both teams were involved in high-scoring games two nights ago. Pittsburgh dropped an ugly 6-4 decision at home against the Canadiens while the Rangers skated to a 5-3 home win over the Capitals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 12-2 with the Pens playing on the road after allowing six or more goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.4 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers have posted an 11-22 o/u mark when playing at home after a home victory in which they scored four goals or more over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-23 | Utah State -1.5 v. Missouri | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Missouri at 1:40 pm et on Thursday. I love the matchup for Utah State here as it draws what I consider to be an overrated SEC squad in Missouri that has certainly exceeded expectations this season but isn't well-suited to go on a deep tournament run in my opinion. Many watched the Tigers upset Tennessee last Friday but their SEC Tournament success was short-lived as they were outmatched by Alabama the next day. While Missouri has managed to get hot for stretches offensively, it has also been limited to 23 or fewer made field goals in four of its last eight games. My concern with Missouri lies at the defensive end of the floor where it ranks 179th in the nation in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and will have to deal with an experienced, multi-pronged Utah State offense that checks in 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency despite quietly having faced the 58th most difficult schedule. The Aggies fell just short in the Mountain West Championship Game against a terrific San Diego State squad but I'm confident they'll get right back up for this NCAA Tournament opening round matchup. With 7'1" Trevin Dorius in the middle not to mention the imposing duo of Taylor Funk and Sean Bairstow and the glue-guy that holds it all together in hometown boy Steven Ashworth, I believe this Aggies squad has the potential to make some noise this weekend, starting with Thursday's game. Take Utah State (8*). |
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03-16-23 | Furman v. Virginia UNDER 132 | 68-67 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Furman and Virginia at 12:40 pm et on Thursday. While anything can obviously happen, I believe there's a good chance this game ends up being akin to watching paint dry, yet here we are being offered a total in the 130's. Furman does play at a reasonably fast pace, ranked 124th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Of course, the Paladins haven't had to play all that methodically having faced the 271st most difficult schedule in the nation. The open looks have been there for the most part throughout the campaign and Furman has taken full advantage. Here, however, they'll be taking a big step up in class against one of the best defensive teams in the nation in Virginia. If Furman is to have any shot at pulling the upset here (as many seem to feel it can), it will need to use its excellent ball movement and patience at the offensive end of the floor to break down the Cavaliers. On the flip side, few teams have been able to speed up Virginia this season, and Furman doesn't figure to be able to (or have any interest in) doing so on Thursday. The Cavaliers rank 360th out of 363 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season not to mention 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency. We certainly saw them lock in during the ACC Tournament, holding all three of their opponents to exactly 19 made field goals. Only one of their last 10 opponents has managed to get off more than 53 field goal attempts and that was Clemson in a game that totalled only 121 points. Take the under (8*). |
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03-15-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -2 | Top | 126-134 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. For a team that manages its schedule ultra-conservatively from a personnel standpoint, the situation doesn't get much better for the Clippers. They've been off for the last three days and after tonight's contest will get two more days off before playing at home again on Friday against Orlando. And the good news is, the Clips enter this contest playing some of their best basketball of the season. They've won three straight games to pull even with the Warriors in the Western Conference standings. Their offense is rolling, having knocked down 47, 45, 39 and 42 field goals over their last four games with the lone outlier coming in a 108-100 victory over Toronto in which they hoisted up only 71 field goal attempts. Defensively, Los Angeles is locked-in, most recently holding the Raptors and Knicks to just 37 and 32 made field goals, respectively. It's a different story at that end of the floor for the Warriors as they've employed a 'swinging-gate' style of defense, allowing 42, 50, 50, 43 and 46 made field goals over their last five contests, albeit aided by overtime in one of those games (against the Bucks). Offensively, they've been fine, as expected, but most of their damage has been done at home. The Warriors remain a woeful 7-26 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 7.2 points. Interestingly, you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time the Warriors covered the spread in consecutive meetings with the Clippers when one of those matchups took place in Los Angeles, as is the case here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-15-23 | Warriors v. Clippers OVER 234 | 126-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. This may look like a lofty total given these two teams just met less than two weeks ago and combined to score only 206 total points. I believe it's warranted, however. The pace and scoring opportunities should be there in this one, noting that the Warriors have employed a 'swinging-gate' defense lately, allowing five straight opponents to get off at least 93 field goal attempts, with all five of those foes knocking down at least 42 (one was aided by overtime). Interestingly, the Clippers have also been affording their opponents plenty of opportunities, yielding 90 or more FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. The only occasion where they didn't we still saw a whopping total of 255 points scored in a matchup with Sacramento. With both teams rested and looking ahead to another day off tomorrow, I don't expect either side to leave anything on the table here. As a final note, the Clippers have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total. That's worth mentioning as they haven't posted three straight 'under' results since January 8th to 15th, when they went on a 4-0 'under' run. Take the over (8*). |
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03-15-23 | Islanders v. Ducks UNDER 6 | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday.
We got the result we wanted in last night's Islanders game as they fell in a relatively high-scoring affair (5-2 final score) in Los Angeles. That has afforded us a loftier total here as the Islanders look to bounce back from consecutive losses as they take on the lowly Ducks in Anaheim. Note that Anaheim does check in playing better hockey lately, holding seven of its last nine opponents to three goals or less during a 5-4 run. The Ducks are still averaging only 2.6 goals per game on home ice and don't figure to have an easy time of it in this matchup noting they've found the back of the net only four times in the last three meetings in this series. You would have to go back eight matchups between these two teams in Anaheim to find the last time they combined to score more than five goals. With the Isles offense sputtering, having scored more than three goals just four times in their last 11 games and averaging only 2.9 goals per game on the road this season, I expect that streak to remain intact on Wednesday. Take the under (8*). |
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03-15-23 | Wild v. Blues UNDER 6 | 8-5 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. While the Wild have scored a whopping 13 goals in the first three games of their current four-game road trip, they can't be trusted to produce at that level for an extended stretch, especially with Kirill Kaprizov sidelined. Note that they're just three games removed from scoring three goals or less in eight straight games. Meanwhile, the Blues have scored 12 goals over their last three contests but are also just three games removed from scoring three goals or less in eight of their previous nine games. The 'over' has cashed in their last two contests but we haven't seen three straight Blues games go 'over' the total since mid-January. Keeping in mind, the most recent matchup between these two teams totalled only three goals, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Wednesday. Take the under (8*). |
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03-15-23 | Arizona State v. Nevada OVER 133.5 | Top | 98-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Nevada at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Arizona State's most recent game as it bowed out of the Pac-12 Tournament at the hands of eventual champion Arizona last Friday. Keep in mind, we were working with a total set well into the 150's in that game. It still went 'over' the number we're dealing with in this 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday. The Sun Devils quietly started pushing the pace more in early February and never relented the rest of the way. They check in having hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in eight of their last 11 games. The only three times they didn't we still saw the 'over' cash at a 2-1 clip. While I've sung the praises of the Sun Devils defense at times this season, the opposition has displayed a fairly solid 'floor' noting that Arizona State has yielded more than 20 made field goals in 18 of its last 20 games. The only team that failed to eclipse that number over that stretch was Oregon State - one of the weakest offensive teams in the country (278th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom). Nevada hasn't really shown the ability to dictate its oppnents' pace, as evidenced by its last two games in which it allowed UNLV and San Jose State to get off 72 and 65 field goal attempts, respectively. The Wolfpack have certainly faced their share of tough defenses this season - the 66th toughest slate of opponents in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in fact (again according to KenPom) - but made out just fine, ranking 61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. There have been plenty of impressive performances along the way, including scoring 87 points against Kansas State, 75 points against San Diego State and 85 points against Utah State. Speaking of 'floors', you would have to go back 25 games to find the last time Nevada was held to fewer than 60 points (I do realize they'll likely need to get well past that number to help this total along). Take the over (10*). |
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03-15-23 | Kings v. Bulls OVER 238.5 | 117-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The only previous matchup between these two teams this season totalled only 211 points and that's helping to keep the number in check in Wednesday's rematch in Chicago. Both of these teams come in red hot offensively. The Kings have made good on 43 or more field goals in nine of their last 10 games and 40+ in all 10 of those contests. Meanwhile, the Bulls have been heating up, knocking down 45, 46 and 44 field goals over their last three games, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all three contests. The Kings are coming off a home loss to the Bucks on Monday and that's notable as they've scored 140, 133, 133 and 134 points in their last four games following a loss. The Bulls average 113.2 points per game this season but that scoring average bumps up to 115.0 points per game when coming off a win, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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03-14-23 | Nets v. Thunder OVER 231.5 | Top | 107-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams last met the Thunder secured a 112-102 road win back on January 15th. Keep in mind, the Nets were a much different team then with Kyrie Irving in the lineup and Kevin Durant still on the shelf pre-trade. Brooklyn has certainly been re-energized since dealing away Kyrie and K.D. The Nets check into this contest on the heels of five straight ATS victories including consecutive 'over' results. While they got off only 84 field goal attempts against a good Nuggets defense on Sunday, they still managed to knock down 40+ field goals for the fourth straight game. It's worth noting that they haven't been held to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in consecutive games since late February. As much as head coach Jacque Vaughn would like his team to play tougher defense, I'm not sure they have the personnel in place to do so. Note that Brooklyn has allowed 44, 48 and 45 made field goals over its last three games (one of those games was aided by overtime) with all three of those opponents hoisting up 90+ FG attempts. The Thunder didn't have their best shooting performance on Sunday in San Antonio but still had enough to get by the lowly Spurs. The good news for our purposes was that the Thunder did continue to push the pace, getting off 95 FG attempts in the victory. They've hoisted up at least 87 FG attempts in seven of their last eight and 11 of their last 13 contests. While we did see Oklahoma City hold its last two opponents to 34 and 33 made field goals, that was against the Pelicans and Spurs, respectively. It will be taking a step up in class against the fifth-in-the-East Nets on Tuesday. While the scoring wasn't necessarily there in that most recent matchup between these two teams, we did see each side get off 90 or more FG attempts. I think the pace will be there again on Tuesday and with both teams coming off an off day, their shooting legs should be firmly beneath them as well. Take the over (10*). |
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03-14-23 | Red Wings +135 v. Predators | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Predators in an underdog role in Los Angeles on Saturday but needed a shootout to go our way to get there. In fact, Nashville needed extra time to secure both of its weekend victories against the aforementioned Kings and Ducks. Missing a number of key contributors, the Preds are playing with a small margin for error right now and I look for them to get tripped up by the Red Wings on home ice on Tuesday. Detroit has to be feeling pretty good about itself after going toe-to-toe with the best team in the league, the Boston Bruins, in a home-and-home set over the weekend. The Wings split that two-game series, only missing out on forcing overtime in the front half thanks to a late goalpost. Note that Detroit is a perfect 4-0 when playing on the road off a home victory by two goals or more this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 2.5 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, Nashville is a woeful 4-14 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here after Detroit skated to a 3-0 home victory in the two teams' first matchup back in November. Take Detroit (8*). |
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03-14-23 | Canadiens v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Canadiens were involved in a wild 8-4 loss at the hands of the Avalanche last night. Everything was going in for Colorado in that contest as it scored three goals on its first six shots alone and was ahead 4-1 at the end of the first period. Keep in mind, the Canadiens had been keeping reasonably under control prior to that contest, having not allowed more than four goals in a game since February 25th against Ottawa. I do expect the Habs to respond with a better defensive performance here. Pittsburgh is coming off consecutive 'under' results, not to mention back-to-back victories at home against the Flyers and Rangers. The Pens are in a bit of a tricky spot here, coming off that big 3-2 overtime win over New York before heading out for consecutive games against the same Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with Pittsburgh playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 5.0 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 23-11 with the Pens playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals. The 'over' did cash in the most recent meeting in this series - a 5-4 Habs win on home ice back in November but we've seen only one 'over' streak in this matchup going back to the start of the 2018-19 campaign. Take the under (10*). |
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03-14-23 | Toledo v. Michigan -6 | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Toledo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Bettors seem eager to fade Michigan in its NIT opener, probably feeling that it will be disinterested after getting 'snubbed' by the NCAA Tournament committee. This Wolverines team wasn't likely to go deep in the NCAA Tournament anyway, and I think the players know that. A high ranking in the NIT does give the Wolverines and opportunity to keep playing and building for next season (keep in mind Michigan returned only one starter this season). I like the draw here in the opening matchup. Toledo doesn't play a lick of defense. The Rockets rank a woeful 287th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite having faced the 213th most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' adjusted offensive efficiency (both according to KenPom). Yes, Toledo can score, or it could against MAC foes anyway. The Rockets only faced the 199th toughest slate of non-conference opponents (and didn't go against a single opponent from the Power-5 conferences) so it's difficult to gauge how they'll fare in this step-up spot. On the heels of three straight losses, I think we see Michigan's best effort here as I'm willing to bet on head coach Juwan Howard's ability to get his players up for this NIT opener. Note that while Toledo has only lost seven games this season, each of those seven defeats came by at least seven points and five of them came by double-digit margins. Take Michigan (8*). |
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03-13-23 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 237.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Suns dropped a high-scoring 128-119 decision at home against the Kings on Saturday but still check in having held an incredible 10 straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. They've been red hot (no pun intended) shooting the ball themselves but will be in tough with Kevin Durant sidelined (given all the key pieces they dealt away to acquire him). The Warriors continue to scuff their heels offensively, shooting worse than 44% as a team in three of their last four games. Their most recent contest did end up touching the total, but only thanks to overtime against Milwaukee on Saturday. Here, we'll go the other way and call for a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting, noting that the 'over' has cashed in all three meetings in this series this season but we haven't seen four straight matchups go 'over' the total since way back in 2008-09. The 'under' checks in 34-18 with Phoenix coming off a loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 218.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-13-23 | Avalanche v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We're being afforded another 6.5 after cashing the 'under' in Colorado's most recent game - a 3-2 overtime win over the Coyotes on Saturday. The Avs, while known for their offensive prowess, have now posted six 'under' streaks (of two or more games) since the start of January, posting an 11-17-1 o/u mark over that stretch. The Habs showed a spark in February but have since gone back in the tank, losing six straight games while being held to three goals or less in all six contests. They could muster only a single goal in Saturday's home loss to the Devils. Montreal has now dipped below the 3.0 goals per game mark at home this season while Colorado checks in allowing just 2.8 goals per contest on the road. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 118-86 with the Avs coming off an overtime win while the 'under' is 31-17 with the Habs seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of only 5.6 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-13-23 | Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 228 | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with this same play on Saturday as the two teams got off to a red hot start and that was enough to ultimately push the final score 'over' the total by a little more than a handful of points. The injury situation has only gotten worse for both squads since then with Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley going down in that contest as well. Keep in mind, the Pacers are already missing the likes of Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Benedict Mathurin among others. Detroit is without Jaden Ivey and Bojan Bogdanovic. Credit the subs for stepping up and filling the void on Saturday but I'm willing to bet they don't do it again here. Note that the Pistons will play again tomorrow night in Washington so they likely have an interest in shortening proceedings as much as possible on Monday, given the limited number of bodies they have on hand. The 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series which is worth noting as we haven't seen four consecutive 'over' results in this matchup since way back in 2013-14. Take the under (8*). |
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03-12-23 | Knicks +2.5 v. Lakers | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks may be missing Jalen Brunson but there's still no reason for their offense to go in the tank the way it has over the last few games. Off a dreadful performance on this same court against the Clippers yesterday, I look for them to rebound on Sunday night against the Lakers. Los Angeles is coming off a win over Toronto on Friday night. That had more to do with the Raptors inability to lay the hammer down than anything else. Toronto had a number of opportunities to take full control of that contest but simply failed to do so. Off three straight losses, I expect the Knicks to play inspired basketball as they look to at least give themselves a shot at splitting this four-game road trip. Note that New York is 20-14 on the road this season, where it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 points. It also checks in an impressive 24-10 ATS when playing the second night of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscoring foes by 5.1 points on average in that spot. Take New York (8*). |
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03-12-23 | Senators v. Flames UNDER 6.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. The Senators have now allowed a whopping 14 goals in the first three games of their current road trip, losing two of those three contests. I do look for them to settle things down on Sunday as they face the fading Flames in Calgary. It was another disappointing result for the Flames on Friday as they fell by a 3-1 score at home against the lowly Ducks. Scoring has become a major problem for Calgary as it has tallied one goal or less in four of its last five contests. The Senators took the most recent meeting between these two teams by a 4-3 score in Ottawa back in February. That's notable as the 'under' is 14-5 with Calgary seeking revenge for a loss where the opposition scored at least four goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 5.4 goals in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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03-12-23 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The 76ers have gotten back to a slower pace yet do check in having seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. Last time out, that had everything to do with the visiting Blazers quite simply shooting the lights out (they actually got off only 80 field goal attempts). Philadelphia has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 12 straight games. The Sixers have also limited the opposition to 86 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. The Wizards have gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in five of their last six games. The only time they surpassed that number they lost 117-111 to the Bucks - with that game still failing to surpass the total we're working with tonight. Off consecutive losses, I do think we see the Wiz play some defense here, noting that they've allowed more than 117 points just once in their last 11 contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-23 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -4 | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Texas A&M at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's payback time as the Crimson Tide look to avenge last week's 67-61 loss at Texas A&M with much higher stakes in Sunday's SEC Championship Game. I'm not convinced the Aggies can afford themselves enough scoring opportunities to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that in last week's victory over the Tide, the Aggies actually knocked down only 18 field goals. The difference was their 28 trips to the free throw line (they made 27 of those attempts). Alabama had an off shooting day, including a woeful 7-of-36 from beyond the arc. Don't count on lightning striking twice here. While the Tide are known for their offensive prowess, their defense has been even better. In fact, Alabama checks in ranked third in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. That's not to mention the fact that they play at the country's fourth fastest tempo (also according to KenPom). Look for 'Bama to overwhelm Texas A&M in all facets on Sunday. Take Alabama (8*). |
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03-12-23 | Princeton v. Yale UNDER 140.5 | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Princeton and Yale at 12 noon et on Sunday. It's not easy to speed up this Yale team. Cornell found that out yesterday as the Bulldogs slowed things down a number of times when the pace was getting frenetic and perhaps starting to favor the Big Red. While Yale ultimately scored 80 points in the win, that had more to do with Cornell's defensive inefficiency than anything else (not to mention the fact that Yale knocked down 10 threes - it averages only seven per game on the season). Yale ranks 232nd in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and I'm confident we'll see it employ a 'grind-it-out' style again on Sunday against Princeton, which is coming off a 77-70 win over Penn yesterday. The Tigers are a middle of the road team when it comes to pace. I do think it would be in their best interest to 'ugly it up' a little bit in this one after dropping both regular season meetings with Yale, allowing 87 and 93 points in the process. While both of those contests went 'over' the total, we haven't seen three straight meetings in this series go 'over' since 2017-18. Take the under (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Grand Canyon v. Southern Utah +1 | Top | 84-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
WAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Southern Utah over Grand Canyon at 11:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams pulled off minor upsets in the semi-final round of the WAC Tournament yesterday. I'll back the revenge-minded Thunderbirds of Southern Utah on Saturday as they look to get back at the Antelopes after dropping an 83-78 decision in the two teams' last matchup just over a week ago. This game features a true contrast in styles as Southern Utah looks to push the pace at every opportunity, ranked 16th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. By the same metric, Grand Canyon sits 291st. While that's not necessarily a bad thing for the Antelopes, they haven't really been able to impose their will on any of their opponents this month, save for perhaps lowly Utah Tech in a double-digit win on March 3rd. Since that defeat at the hands of Grand Canyon, we've seen Southern Utah knock down 29, 27 and 30 field goals in notching three straight victories. Interestingly, it's not the Thunderbirds that have been more vulnerable defensively, despite playing at such a fast pace. The Antelopes actually rank a disappointing 210th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Southern Utah checks in 149th despite facing a marginally tougher schedule. I simply feel that last week's result between these two teams is weighing far too heavily given how little most have paid attention to the WAC in general this season. Take Southern Utah (10*). |
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03-11-23 | Predators +147 v. Kings | 2-1 | Win | 147 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nashville over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. Few bettors want a piece of the Predators against the red hot Kings on Saturday as Nashville comes off consecutive losses on the road against non-playoff contending teams in the Canucks and Coyotes. While the Preds are banged-up right now, missing a number of key contributors, I like their chances of rising to the occasion as they catch the Kings in a bit of a flat spot off a big road win over the Avalanche two nights ago. Note that the Preds are a long-term 83-55 when coming off consecutive road losses while the Kings are just 97-120 when coming off six or seven wins in their last eight games, as is the case here. Take Nashville (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 229 | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. This was already going to be an ugly Saturday night matchup in the Motor City but with super rookies Benedict Mathurin and Jaden Ivey sidelined it sets up that much worse. The Pacers are coming off a wild overtime win over the Rockets two nights ago. The 'over' has now cashed in each of their last three games, helping to keep tonight's posted total in a lofty range. The Pistons have struggled to score lately (by today's NBA standards at least), putting up fewer than 110 points in all but two of their last nine contests. While the defense-optional Pacers would appear to offer a reprieve, the Pistons are simply missing too many key contributors to be counted on for an offensive explosion here. Indiana has its own absences to deal with. Mathurin has already been ruled out while Myles Turner, Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell are all nursing injuries and currently listed as questionable to play. Even if all three are able to go, there's no guarantee they'll see their usual workload, especially if the game is well in control. Take the under (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Texas v. Kansas -1 | 76-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Texas at 6 pm et on Saturday. There's very little separating these two Big 12 rivals and it's fitting that they'll meet in Saturday's Conference Championship Game. In fact, there's less than a point between the two teams according to KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin metric with only one spot separating them in the overall rankings. I simply feel that the Jayhawks are the superior defensive team and the fact is they've faced the toughest schedule in the entire country this season (also according to KenPom). We actually won with Texas in this same matchup last Saturday as the Longhorns exacted their revenge for an earlier loss to Kansas this season. That game was played in Austin. This one takes place in Kansas City. I expect the Jayhawks to roll. Take Kansas (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Coyotes v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. The Avalanche are coming off an awful defensive showing in a 5-2 home loss against the red hot Kings on Thursday. A visit from the lowly Coyotes should give them an opportunity to get back on track in that regard on Saturday, noting that Arizona, while coming off back-to-back wins (both at home), has averaged just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. Since scoring four goals or more in four straight games from February 18th to the 25th, the Avalanche have reached that number only twice in their last six contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is an incredible 12-1 with Colorado coming off a home loss this season, resulting in an average total of only 5.3 goals scored in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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03-11-23 | Missouri v. Alabama UNDER 157.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Missouri and Alabama at 1 pm et on Saturday. Alabama enters this contest off consecutive 'under' results and I'm confident we'll see a third straight on Saturday as this total has simply been set too high. Missouri stunned Tennessee on a scorching-hot shooting performance yesterday, notching its fifth straight victory. While the Tigers offense impressed, I'm not sure they'll be interested in trading blows with the Crimson Tide here, noting that Alabama barely broke a sweat in an 85-64 win in the lone regular season meeting. Interestingly, Missouri has found a way to slow down the opposition lately, allowing 56 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in six straight games entering Saturday's affair. Alabama had to lean on its own defense yesterday as its shooting touch just wasn't there against Mississippi State (the Tide knocked down 27-of-67 FG attempts). I'm anticipating a scrappier affair than most in this semi-final showdown on Saturday in Nashville. Take the under (8*). |
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03-11-23 | Cornell v. Yale OVER 149 | Top | 60-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cornell and Yale at 11 am et on Saturday. These two teams just met on February 25th as Yale rolled to a 76-58 victory with that contest easily cruising 'under' the total, which closed in the low-150's. We're working with a lower posted total this time around but I'm not convinced the shift is warranted. Note that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total since all the way back in 2015-16. Cornell has been reeling to be sure but its slate is clean now as it needs two victories to book a spot in the NCAA Tournament. I certainly don't expect the Big Red, who rank 48th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, to go down without a fight. While Yale does rank an impressive 62nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, it has also only faced the 236th toughest slate of offensive opponents (based on average adjusted offensive efficiency). While we can sometimes project a sleepy start in these morning tipoff games, I don't think that will be the case here with both squads raring to go following a full week off. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-23 | Arizona State v. Arizona UNDER 154.5 | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Arizona at 11:30 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in one of the best games of the entire college basketball season on February 25th as Arizona State pulled off a stunning 89-88 upset win on a half-court, buzzer-beating heave. It's easy to forget that the first meeting of the season was a rather ho-hum 69-60 Arizona victory. It's notable that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this in-state rivalry go 'over' the total since way back in 2016-17. It may surprise you to find out that Arizona State actually ranks an impressive 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite having faced the nation's 44th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). While the Sun Devils were unconscious from the field against Arizona on February 25th, we can chalk that up as an anomaly as they've made good on just 21, 19, 23 and 23 field goals in four games since (they connected on 36 in the upset win over the Wildcats). We certainly haven't seen Arizona's best defensive basketball lately as it has allowed 24, 36, 26, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests. I do think it catches Arizona State at the right time, however, and it's not as if the Wildcats have been down bad defensively all season as they still rank 55th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (including the 80th toughest slate of non-conference opponents). Take the under (8*). |
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03-10-23 | Raptors +1 v. Lakers | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. This is a big spot for the Raptors who were fuming (feeling wronged by the officials) following Wednesday's loss on this same court against the Clippers. Toronto hasn't played all that poorly but is just 1-3 on its current road trip. We were actually on the Raptors in their lone victory - an overtime win in Washington last Saturday. I like the fact that Toronto has gotten back to its preferred style of basketball at the very least, holding six straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raptors last contest marked the first time in four games that they didn't make good on at least 41 field goals. The Lakers are undoubtedly playing well but have also caught some favorable matchups lately, facing the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a reeling Warriors squad and a Grizzlies team missing Ja Morant among others. Here, they get the Raps at virtually full strength. Note that Los Angeles is just 13-26 ATS when coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Raptors are a long-term 163-126 ATS when playing on the road off two or more losses in a row. Take Toronto (10*). |
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03-10-23 | Oregon +6.5 v. UCLA | 56-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon plus the points over UCLA at 9 pm et on Friday. UCLA faced some resistance but ultimately got past Colorado by double-digits in a win and ATS cover yesterday. I can't help but feel that Oregon is essentially Colorado 'on steroids' this season and the Ducks will certainly enter this contest with a chip on their collective shoulder after dropping both regular season meetings with the Bruins. Oregon wasn't able to generate enough scoring opportunities to get over the hump in the two regular season matchups with UCLA. It is worth noting that Bruins guard Jaylen Clark proved to be a handful for the Ducks in those two contests, scoring 27 points while adding seven rebounds not to mention getting to the free throw line 14 times. He of course won't play in this game as he recovers from an achilles injury. I think a lot of bettors are sleeping on the Ducks, noting that they check in ranked 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 23rd most difficult schedule (all according to KenPom). Oregon was certainly battle-tested early on as it went up against the 28th toughest slate of non-conference opponents (by comparison UCLA faced only the 148th most difficult). Of course UCLA is the superior team in this matchup but that's been baked into the pointspread. As we see year in, year out, the best team doesn't always end up on top in these conference tournaments and the Pac-12 has been no different (remember Oregon State?). Having won four games in a row, allowing just 22, 19, 25 and 23 made field goals over that stretch, I'm confident the Ducks can hang with the Bruins for 40 minutes on Friday. Take Oregon (8*). |
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03-10-23 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 130.5 | Top | 83-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Fullerton and Cal-Irvine at 9 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring affairs on Thursday and I expect more of the same as they match up for the third time this season on Friday. The two regular season matchups were a bit of a mixed bag with the first totalling 135 points and the second reaching only 123 points. Fullerton has been an upstart this season, going an incredible 19-8 ATS in lined contests on the strength of a defense that ranks 81st in the country in adjusted efficiency (according to KenPom). The Titans are certainly capable of 'grinding it out', checking in 317th out of 363 Division-I teams in terms of adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Cal-Irvine is right there defensively as well, ranking 75th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, albeit playing at a considerably faster pace. The Anteaters have been particularly locked-in on defense lately, allowing 24 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 10 games overall. On the flip side, Fullerton has impressively limited five of its last seven foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a team got off more than 56 field goal attempts and that contest still totalled 'only' 128 points back in January of last year. Take the under (10*). |
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03-10-23 | Blazers v. 76ers -8.5 | 119-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. While they have managed to scrap their way to two wins in their last three games, the Blazers are not playing inspiring basketball right now. They've had a tough enough time just getting shots off, hoisting up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. They've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six contests. That's a recipe for disaster for a team that has allowed an incredible 28 straight opponents to knock down at least 40 field goals with 18 of those making good on 43 or more. The 76ers enter this game playing some of their best offensive basketball of the season after making good on 40 or more field goals in five straight games. They've also held 11 of their last 14 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Last time out, in what should have been a bad spot playing the second night of back-to-backs off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers, they held the Timberwolves to 34-of-86 shooting in a 23-point rout, on the road as three-point underdogs no less. We'll note that Portland is just 13-24 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here after the Sixers won by 10 in Portland back in January, outscored by an average margin of 9.6 points in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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03-10-23 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 137.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
SEC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Texas A&M at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in an anomaly of a high-scoring affair in their first meeting this season as that contest totalled 151 points with Texas A&M getting off an otherworldly (by the Aggies own standards) 76 field goal attempts in a double-digit loss. The rematch proved far more 'normal', reaching only 118 points in a tightly-contested A&M home victory. I'm anticipating something in between here but do feel the total will prove too high. Arkansas has seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six games as a number of its recent opponents have quite simply shot the lights out. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for such high-scoring affairs, noting yesterday's game in particular where the Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers combined to hoist up only 101 field goal attempts yet we saw 149 total points scored. All told, the Hogs have limited seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and I'm confident they'll do the same here, noting that Texas A&M ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) and has gotten off 54 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. In fact, the Aggies have been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four of their last six games yet here we find them in a pk'em price range against Arkansas. That lends itself to a relatively low-scoring affair in my opinion, noting that the Aggies have been nothing but consistent defensively, holding an incredible seven straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals, including the Razorbacks (to 22) on February 15th. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-23 | Sharks +128 v. Blues | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose over St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Sharks get an opportunity at quick revenge after dropping a 6-3 home decision against the struggling Blues last week. Most bettors will probably want no part of San Jose here after its ugly 6-0 loss in Colorado two nights ago. Despite that lopsided defeat, the Sharks are still an even 1-1 on this road trip and I'm not convinced they're the weaker team in this matchup. The Blues have essentially gone into 'tank mode' after dealing away several key pieces prior to the trade deadline. That aforementioned victory over the Sharks was their only win over their last nine games and here we'll note that they're just 14-22 when playing at home off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. Take San Jose (8*). |
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03-09-23 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 235.5 | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're seeing a considerable adjustment to the total in this game since the most recent meeting between these two teams on January 25th. That game totalled 242 points, staying just 'under' the closing total of 245.5. We're working with a total around 10 points lower (at the time of writing) for this rematch, largely due to the absence of Ja Morant for the Grizzlies. I don't believe that big of a shift is warranted. To say the Warriors have been a bad defensive team away from home this season would be an understatement. They've allowed a whopping 123.6 points per game on north of 49% shooting. You would have to go all the way back to January 13th to find the last time they held an opponent to 40 or fewer made field goals on the road and even further to December 16th to spot the last time they limited a foe to fewer than 40. Defensive warts aside, Golden State should be 'feeling it' offensively in this one after knocking down 47-of-89 field goal attempts in Tuesday's 137-128 loss in Oklahoma City. After holding four straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals, the Grizzlies have now yielded 40, 45 and 41 made field goals over their last three contests. Offensively, it doesn't get much worse than Memphis' 36-of-93 shooting performance against the Lakers last time out. Keep in mind, the Grizzlies are just one game removed from a 50-of-92 shooting effort against the Clippers. The short line says a lot here as despite the short-handed nature of the Grizzlies, a competitive affair should be in order. That lends itself to a high-scoring contest in my opinion. Take the over (8*). |
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03-09-23 | Islanders +133 v. Penguins | 4-3 | Win | 133 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll fade the Penguins off their come-from-behind victory over the Blue Jackets on Tuesday. New York comes in playing arguably its best hockey of the season having won six of its last nine games including a pair of victories over Pittsburgh over that stretch. The Pens have been sieve-like defensively, allowing a whopping 39 goals over their last 10 games. Goaltender Tristan Jarry has posted a .884 save percentage over his last four games while Isles all-world netminder Ilya Sorokin owns a .943 save percentage over the same stretch. I get the revenge angle in support of the Pens here but I simply feel the Isles are the better team playing better hockey. Take New York (8*). |
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03-09-23 | Golden Knights +150 v. Lightning | 4-3 | Win | 150 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Golden Knights had their three-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Panthers in Sunrise two nights ago but I look for them to bounce back as they complete their two-game set in Florida against the Lightning on Thursday. Tampa Bay did bust out of its slump with a 5-2 win over Philadelphia on Tuesday but faces a much more difficult challenge here. It's worth noting that the Bolts aren't even a .500 team going back to mid-January having posted a 9-12 record over their last 21 games. Even goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has shown cracks in his armor, posting a .890 save percentage over his last four games. This is a Lightning squad that has played a ton of hockey over the last few years and I think it's starting to catch up to them. Take Vegas (8*). |
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03-09-23 | Tulsa v. Wichita State OVER 139 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Wichita State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both regular season meetings between these two teams surpassed the total we're dealing with on Thursday and I believe the number will prove too low once again. Tulsa enters this game on an 11-game losing streak, not to mention a four-game 'under' streak. The Golden Hurricane offense went in the tank down the stretch but I do think this is a favorable matchup, noting that Tulsa has hung relatively tough with Wichita State in all five meetings going back to the start of 2022, with the largest margin of defeat over that stretch being 11 points. The Golden Hurricane knocked down 27 and 25 field goals in this year's two matchups, scoring 69 and 75 points. The problem here is that Tulsa doesn't match up particularly well defensively. Wichita State has made good on 24 or more field goals in 10 of its last 11 games and faces a Tulsa defense that has yielded 25 or more made field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 21 games. I don't think the Golden Hurricane will shy away from an up-tempo affair here though, noting that they rank 146th in the country this season in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) despite facing the 95th most difficult schedule. The Shockers stepped up with a dominant defensive effort against South Florida last time out but that might have just been an off shooting night for the Bulls as they still got off 58 field goal attempts. Prior to that, Wichita State had allowed at least 23 made field goals in 16 straight games, yielding 27 or more on eight occasions over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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03-09-23 | Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 133 | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and UCLA at 3 pm et on Thursday. Colorado exploded in the second half against Washington yesterday, scoring 46 points on its way to a 74-68 win. Keep in mind, the Buffaloes M.O. this season has been their defense, ranking 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). I certainly expect to see the pace slow down in today's matchup (Colorado got off 66 field goal attempts in yesterday's win), noting that favored UCLA ranks 223rd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season and should be able to control proceedings much like it did during the lone regular season matchup between these two teams (the Bruins won that game 60-56 on February 26th). For UCLA, it has its sights set on a tournament championship, but also on much loftier goals starting next week. I'm not expecting a peak performance from the Bruins offense here, noting that even in an anomaly of a game that saw them hoist up 67 field goal attempts against up-tempo Arizona last time out, they still knocked down 'only' 28 field goals. Colorado enters this contest having held three straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, including that aforementioned matchup with UCLA in which it yielded 22. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-23 | Pittsburgh v. Duke UNDER 142 | 69-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Duke at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. While Pittsburgh is coming off a wild 89-81 win over Georgia Tech yesterday I think it knows that it is unlikely to enjoy similar success by employing that same style of play against Duke on Thursday. Case in point, the first regular season matchup between these two teams as the Panthers got off to a red hot start but ultimately gave the Blue Devils far too many scoring opportunities (66 field goal attempts) and paid the price in a 77-69 road loss in January. While Pitt has regularly gotten into the 70's, 80's and even 90's in terms of scoring this season, it's worth noting that it has only faced the 102nd most difficult schedule in the country - a relatively low rating for a team from a major conference. Here, it will be facing a Duke squad that checks in 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 292nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). The Blue Devils have faced the nation's 72nd toughest slate of opponents. Another team with loftier goals beginning next week, but also with its sights firmly set on an ACC Tournament title, I'm not convinced we see Duke come out with a peak offensive performance in its opener in Greensboro. Both teams should have an interest in effectively shortening proceedings here, albeit for different reasons, and I think that lends itself to a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting. Take the under (8*). |
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03-08-23 | Oregon State +10 v. Arizona State | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Arizona State at 11:30 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with Oregon State on Saturday as the Beavers won but failed to cover the spread against lowly California. While that was a rather uninspiring performance from OSU I do think it's well positioned to get back in the win column from an ATS perspective as it catches a generous helping of points against Arizona State in the first round Pac-12 Tournament action. Note that this will be the third matchup between these two teams this season. The Sun Devils took the first two but neither game was a blowout as they won by five and 11 points. Arizona State actually got off only 49 and 47 field goal attempts in those two contests, making good on a combined 46 of them. The difference was that ASU set up shop at the free throw line, getting there 27 and 26 times. I certainly don't expect a repeat of that here, noting that the Sun Devils average only 18 trips to the charity stripe per game this season. We know Oregon State is capable of slowing this game to a crawl, effectively shortening proceedings which is what we want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Note that the Beavers have held seven straight opponents to 58 or fewer FG attempts, allowing more than 25 made field goals just twice over that stretch. While Arizona State does rate well defensively, I do think Oregon State can find some success offensively, noting that the Sun Devils have allowed an incredible 21 straight opponents to knock down at least 20 field goals (that's not a lofty number by any means but can work as a reasonable floor for the Beavers here). In stark contrast, Oregon State has held three of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals. Take Oregon State (10*). |
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03-08-23 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 234 | 101-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Thunder have posted a 6-0-1 o/u mark over their last seven games but I look for that run to come to an end on Wednesday as they face the Suns in a difficult back-to-back spot. I'm not sure any team is as locked-in defensively as Phoenix right now. The Suns have held nine of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While the Thunder are playing well, winners of three games in a row while scoring 130, 129 and 137 points over that stretch, the fact that they're in a back-to-back and three-in-four situation on the road has to be factored in (their last three wins came at home). The last time we saw Oklahoma City on the road it was held to 41-of-94 shooting right here in Phoenix (also in a back-to-back spot). That previous meeting did end up totalling 239 points, however, helping keep this total in a lofty region. I mentioned the Thunder's red hot offense but their defense has stepped up to a certain extent as well, limiting six straight and 10 of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The addition of Kevin Durant hasn't necessarily served to speed up the Suns offense, noting that they're hoisted up 89, 84 and 89 FG attempts in his first three games. Take the under (8*). |
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03-08-23 | Cavs -2.5 v. Heat | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavs nearly got caught overlooking the undermanned Celtics who were in a back-to-back spot and resting a number of players on Monday in Cleveland. While the Cavs did ultimately win that game in overtime, they didn't cover the spread. That brought an end to their three-game ATS winning streak but I look for them to start a new one on Wednesday in Miami. The Heat wrapped up a two-game sweep of the Hawks at home two nights ago. We actually cashed with Atlanta in that game but were fortunate to do so thanks to a 'meaningless' buzzer-beater from the Hawks. Atlanta had that game in control before coughing it up in the fourth quarter, due in large part to its defensive ineptitude. The Cavs should offer a 'shock to the system' to the Heat in that regard, noting that they've held four straight and 10 of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals in regulation time. Miami isn't playing at a pace that would appear to challenge that Cavs run, noting that the Heat have hoisted up 83 or fewer FG attempts in six straight games, making good on 42 or less in 12 consecutive contests. Contrast that with Cleveland, which enters on a streak of eight straight and 15 of its last 16 having knocked down 40 or more field goals. The last time these two teams met in late January the Heat prevailed as a four-point road underdog. Look for the revenge-minded Cavs to answer back here. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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03-08-23 | Paris Saint-Germain v. Bayern Munich OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem to be shying away at the prospect of backing the 'over' at a lofty 3.5 goals in the second leg of this Champions League matchup between PSG and Bayern Munich on Wednesday. Keep in mind, the first leg produced just one goal - that coming from Bayern Munich in stunning fashion. I'm anticipating more offensive fireworks this time around, however, noting that the German side will be without both Benjamin Pavard (suspension) and Lucas Hernandez (injury) on its back-line, not to mention Manuel Neuer between the sticks. It's worth noting that Neuer's replacement, Yann Sommer, has rated out poorly in each of his last three matches in Bundesliga action. Speaking of rating poorly, PSG keeper Gianluigi Donnaruma posted two exceptionally poor ratings in recent matches against Lille and Nantes in Ligue 1 action. We know both of these sides are clinical in their attack and I like the fact that PSG will need to be on its front foot down a goal by aggregate here. There's no reason to think we see the French side sit back in hostile territory on Wednesday and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. While laying the juice to play the 'over' at 3.0 is tempting here, I believe we're well-suited to take it on at 3.5 with a plus-money return (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-23 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse OVER 153 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
ACC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Wednesday. This will be the second meeting in less than a week between these two ACC schools after Saturday's contest went Syracuse's way by a score of 72-63. That relatively low-scoring result has afforded us a lower posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too low. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday but neither team was able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. Still, Syracuse has now allowed four straight and seven of its last eight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts while Wake Forest has yielded 27 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 games. The Demon Deacons have struggled to adjust to life without Damari Monsanto after he went down with an injury on February 22nd. I do think facing the same opponent in succession will help their cause here, however, noting that they're favored for a reason in this game. They'll certainly need to pick up the scoring pace here as they can't expect Syracuse to shoot a woeful 2-of-14 from three-point range the way it did on Saturday (the fact that it still scored 72 points was impressive). Note that Wake does check in 63rd in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Take the over (10*). |
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03-07-23 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 232.5 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results - in fact, the Jazz have seen their last two games go 'over' the total while the Mavericks have posted three consecutive 'overs'. I expect those streaks to end here. After another tough loss - this one coming at the hands of the Suns on Sunday - the Mavs know they can't keep playing the way they have been, and by that I mean getting involved in repeated track meets. It's not the pace they're comfortable playing at and it just doesn't give them the best chance to win on most nights, despite the wealth of offensive talent they possess. Here, I think Dallas catches a bit of a break as Utah hasn't been on point offensively, topping out at 43 made field goals in seven straight games (it reached that number three times over that stretch). You have to figure the Jazz will be looking to tighten things up defensively here as well after allowing 130 and 129 points in consecutive losses in Oklahoma City. While the most recent meeting between these two teams in early February did snap a five-game 'under' streak in this series, it only got there thanks to 50 made free throws (the two teams average a combined 39 made free throws per game this season). Only once in the last 11 meetings have we seen either team knock down more than 41 field goals and that came in a contest that totalled only 203 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-23 | Flames v. Wild -130 | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Calgary at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Flames managed to pull out a wild 5-4 victory in Dallas last night, scoring with seven seconds remaining in the third period to secure the much-needed win. While they would certainly like to get some quick revenge against the Wild after dropping a 3-0 decision against them at home on Saturday, I don't believe they're well-positioned to do so here. Note that Calgary is just 3-10 when seeking revenge for a home loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that situation. The Wild have been a play-on team when at home off a win over the last two seasons, as is the case here, going an impressive 37-10 in that spot while outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. To illustrate just how well Minnesota has been playing lately, consider that it hasn't suffered a loss by two goals or more since February 9th. Since then, it has gone 9-3, not allowing more than three goals in any of those 12 contests. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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03-07-23 | Georgia Tech -1.5 v. Florida State | 61-60 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia Tech minus the points over Florida State at 2 pm et on Tuesday. While few have been paying much attention, Georgia Tech enters the ACC Tournament playing its best basketball of the season, having won eight straight games ATS. It hasn't been by smoke and mirrors either. The Yellow Jackets have climbed to 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while facing the 82nd most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). While their overall offensive numbers still lag, we've certainly seen a positive turnaround down the stretch. Georgia Tech has knocked down 26 or more field goals in nine straight games entering Tuesday's contest. In stark contrast, Florida State has reached that number just twice in its last six games. Also note that the Seminoles rank a miserable 244th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and have allowed at least 27 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests overall. The Noles got the better of the Yellow Jackets in the two teams' lone regular season matchup but I expect a different result on Tuesday. Take Georgia Tech (8*). |
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03-06-23 | Cleveland State v. Wisc-Milwaukee OVER 147.5 | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after Wisconsin-Milwaukee posted a rare 'under' result in its quarter-final matchup with Wright State. Monday's opponent, Cleveland State, has been a completely different team over the last month, hoisting up 60 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. Keep in mind, this is a team that still checks in 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The Panthers on the other hand rank 17th in the nation in that category. Note that Milwaukee checks in just 219th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing just the 289th most difficult schedule in the country. I think the Panthers were fortunate to allow 'only' 72 and 70 points in their last two games despite yielding 74 and 68 FG attempts. Cleveland State figures to take advantage of Milwaukee's defensive warts, noting that the Vikings have knocked down 26 or more field goals in six straight games and 28+ in five of those contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-06-23 | Senators -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Ottawa -1.5 goals over Chicago at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Senators are rolling right now, winners of five straight games with all five of those victories coming by two goals or more. We'll ride the hot streak for one more game on Monday as they head to Chicago to face the Blackhawks. This is obviously a game the Sens have had circled since dropping a 4-3 decision (after leading 3-1 in the third period) at home against the Blackhawks just a couple of weeks ago. Chicago has fallen off a cliff, predictably, since offloading talent leading up to the trade deadline. The Sens actually haven't defeated the Blackhawks since 2016 but they get their payback on Monday. Take Ottawa -1.5 goals (10*). |
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03-06-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Heat | 128-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the Heat after they delivered a 117-109 win in the front half of this two-game set against the Hawks. We haven't seen Miami post consecutive ATS victories since January 6th and 8th, going an ugly 7-16-1 ATS since. The Heat have done a nice job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities lately but I expect the Hawks to get loose here, noting that they had knocked down at least 40 field goals in eight straight and 14 of their last 15 games prior to Saturday's defeat. While Atlanta is just 14-19 on the road this season, it has been a 'tough out', outscored by an average margin of only 1.9 points per contest. Meanwhile, the Heat are 20-12 on their home floor but have only managed to outscore the opposition by 0.8 points per game on average. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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03-05-23 | Knicks v. Celtics -5.5 | 131-129 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. We'll back the Celtics to rebound off their embarrassing loss at home against the Nets on Friday - in a game they led by 28 points at one point. Meanwhile, the Celtics are coming off a last-second victory over the Heat in Miami on Friday. Here, we find the C's in a quick revenge spot after getting drilled 109-94 in New York on February 27th. In fact, it's a double-revenge spot as the Knicks also won 120-117 here in Boston back on January 26th. We'll note that the Celtics are a long-term 18-6 ATS when coming off an outright loss to a division opponent as six points or more, as is the case here. They're also 89-61 ATS when coming off a double-digit home loss. Take Boston (8*). |
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03-05-23 | Michigan v. Indiana UNDER 143.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Indiana at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade the 'over' streaks for both of these teams on Sunday afternoon as Michigan enters on the heels of consecutive 'over' results while Indiana has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total. I certainly don't think Michigan wants to get involved in another track meet here after allowing 70 field goal attempts in each of its last two contests. Prior to that, the Wolverines had held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Despite their recent run of 'over' results, the Hoosiers have still made good on 25 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. Indiana continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 58 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. We've seen a slight adjustment to the total for this rematch but I don't believe it will be enough. Take the under (10*). |
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03-04-23 | California v. Oregon State -6.5 | 66-69 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over California at 8 pm et on Saturday. After a no-show against Stanford on Thursday I look for Oregon State to bounce back and lay waste to a reeling California squad in its regular season finale in Corvallis on Saturday. Cal is coming off another ugly loss, this time at the hands of Oregon, by a score of 84-51 on Thursday. The Beavers weren't much better, dropping an 83-60 decision against the Cardinal. This is an ideal 'get right' spot for Oregon State in its home finale as it looks to snap a four-game losing streak, noting that it has already defeated Cal by 20 points once this season, on the road no less. Take Oregon State (8*). |
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03-04-23 | Raptors -1 v. Wizards | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Washington at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors haven't lost consecutive games since January 30th and February 1st and I look for them to avoid that fate in the second half of this two-game set against the Wizards on Saturday. Note that Washington is just 11-22 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons. The Wizards are also a long-term 183-233 ATS when coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. The Raptors had their opportunities on Thursday night but simply couldn't take advantage, connecting on only 41-of-92 field goal attempts. They did hold Washington to just 84 field goal attempts - the third straight game in which they limited the opposition to that number or less. Take Toronto (10*). |
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03-04-23 | Kansas v. Texas -2 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. Kansas is red hot having won seven straight games. It hasn't looked particularly impressive in its last two victories, however, failing to cover the spread on both occasions. Here, I expect the Jayhawks to have their win streak stopped by a Texas team determined to end its two-game skid to close out the regular season at home. This is a revenge spot for the Longhorns as well after they dropped a spirited 88-80 affair in Lawrence back on February 6th. Note that Texas has lost just once at home this season, that coming in a wild 116-103 setback against Kansas State in January. The Longhorns current two-game slide is their longest such streak of the season. I don't like the fact that Kansas has given up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games entering this contest, opening the door for a Texas offense that has knocked down 25 or more field goals in four straight games and figures to bounce back after making good on only 25-of-64 FG attempts in a narrow two-point loss at TCU last time out. Take Texas (10*). |
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03-04-23 | Iowa State v. Baylor UNDER 136.5 | 73-58 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa State and Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season did sail 'over' the total but we're working with a higher number this time around and I believe it will prove too high. Iowa State made the most of its opportunities given its limitations offensively but still scored 'only' 69 points in its fourth straight loss, this one coming at the hands of West Virginia on Monday. You would have to go all the way back to February 4th to find the last time the Cyclones made good on more than 24 field goals in a game. They do continue to hold up well defensively, however, limiting six of their last nine opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts. They'll undoubtedly be looking to 'ugly it up' in this difficult road game against Baylor as well. Baylor has topped out at 26 made field goals over its last six games. The Bears aren't exactly pushing the pace, hoisting up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in seven straight games entering Saturday's contest. After allowing Texas and Oklahoma State to each get off 60 or more FG attempts in their last two games, I look for the Bears to clamp down on the Cyclones offense in this revenge spot. Take the under (8*). |
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03-03-23 | Suns v. Bulls OVER 222.5 | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Bulls are on an incredible 'under' run right now (even though their most recent game did find its way 'over' the total in Detroit). I do think the total has been adjusted too low in this particular matchup, however, noting that Chicago figures to have its hands full with the new-look Suns offense. Phoenix didn't need to keep its foot on the gas for four quarters two nights ago in Charlotte (in Kevin Durant's team debut). I suspect they'll have to on Friday though. Note that the Suns have been pushing the pace more than usual lately, hoisting up 88 or more field goal attempts in six straight games. The Bulls play at a slow tempo but have been making the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down 40 or more field goals in three of their last four games. This has been a high-scoring series with each of the last three meetings eclipsing the 230 point mark. Take the over (8*). |
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03-03-23 | The Citadel +6.5 v. Mercer | 41-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on The Citadel plus the points over Mercer at 5 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met last weekend as Mercer routed The Citadel by 22 points. I'm anticipating a far more competitive affair on Friday, however, noting that The Citadel is an impressive 8-1 ATS when playing away from home off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of only 0.3 points in that spot. Meanwhile, Mercer is 2-10 ATS in road/neutral site games after posting consecutive ATS victories, which is also the situation here, outscored by 8.1 points on average in that situation. Take The Citadel (8*). |
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03-02-23 | Stanford v. Oregon State +5 | Top | 83-60 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Stanford at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with Stanford in its double-digit victory over Washington last Sunday - a true 'get right' spot for the Cardinal after they had lost three games in a row. Now I feel the shoe is on the other foot as Stanford heads out on the road to face Oregon State on Thursday. The Beavers enter this contest having dropped three games in a row, including a tough two-point setback against rival Oregon last Saturday. I do think Oregon State can be a thorn in Stanford's side here, noting that the Beavers rank 109th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season and 338th in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom), perhaps offering a bit of a 'shock to the system' to the Cardinal after they faced Washington (which ranks 78th in adjusted tempo) last time out. For Stanford, it might be easy to overlook to the Beavers with a tougher (on paper) road tilt against the Oregon Ducks on tap on Saturday. That wouldn't be wise, however, as Oregon State has staged recent home upsets against the likes of Colorado and USC (both since the start of February). Take Oregon State (10*). |
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03-02-23 | Penguins v. Lightning -165 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -165 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Lightning inexplicably came out flat on Tuesday against the Panthers, falling behind 3-0 in the first period in an eventual 4-1 defeat. I certainly didn't anticipate such a poor effort from the Bolts after their embarrassing 7-3 loss in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Here, Tampa Bay has an opportunity to atone for its recent missteps as it hosts the Penguins in a quick revenge spot on Thursday. While the Penguins check in just 24-27 after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, the Lighting have gone an incredible 18-2 when coming off three losses in their last four games over the last three seasons, which is the situation they're in on Thursday. That's not to mention the fact that the Bolts have posted a terrific 28-4 record when playing at home seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 goals on average along the way. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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03-01-23 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 232 | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blazers loss against the Warriors last night. While this is a difficult back-to-back spot for Portland, I do think the game is well-positioned to fly 'over' the total. New Orleans last took the floor on Monday, suffering an embarrassing 101-93 home loss against the Magic. That was arguably the Pelicans worst offensive showing in over a month. I'm confident they bounce back here, noting that the Blazers are a mess defensively, having allowed 45 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, each of their last 21 opponents have knocked down more than 40 field goals. You have to figure Portland goes off offensively as well in this spot, noting that the Pelicans rarely play a lick of defense on the road, allowing 117.2 points per game on 48% shooting. These two teams last met in November and that contest totalled only 201 points. Both teams shot poorly on that night and the game was played at a snail's pace. I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-01-23 | Massachusetts v. Duquesne OVER 148.5 | Top | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough with UMass coming off three consecutive 'under' results and Duquesne checking off a low-scoring game of its own. The first meeting between these teams this season produced 166 total points. Neither team shot particularly well in that contest but the game was played at an exceptionally fast pace. I expect a similar up-tempo affair here. The Minutemen had been rolling along offensively, having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last nine games, before running into a tough Dayton defense last time out. Meanwhile, Duquesne has connected on 25 or more field goals in eight of its last nine contests, making good on 28 or more in six of its last eight games. Both teams have been solid on occasion defensively, but not with any consistency. I just don't see either side shying away from a track meet here. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-23 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 235.5 | Top | 105-123 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Warriors most recent game on Sunday as they defeated the T'Wolves by a 109-104 score. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, noting that the pace was certainly there for a much higher-scoring affair in that Sunday contest, and I'm confident Portland will do its part to help this total along. The Warriors have run into a bit of a shooting funk over their last few games but figure to get on track here, noting that Portland has allowed 45 or more made field goals in seven of its last eight games with the opposition knocking down at least 40 field goals in an incredible 22 straight contests. Golden State has seen each of its last two foes - the T'Wolves and Rockets - get off 90 or more field goal attempts, but fail to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities, making good on just 38 and 36, respectively. Portland doesn't figure to have such trouble, noting that the Blazers have knocked down 42 or more field goals in five of their last six games, despite getting off 86 or fewer FG attempts in four of those contests. In fact, Portland has connected on 40 or more field goals in 12 of its last 14 games overall. Largely due to the Warriors recent low-scoring results (along with the fact that the likes of Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins remain sidelined) we're not seeing much of an adjustment to this total since the last time these two teams met on February 8th. That's notable when you consider that game reached a whopping 247 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-23 | Panthers v. Lightning -165 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -165 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Florida at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning effectively punted the second half of their back-to-back road set over the weekend as they started backup goaltender Brian Elliott in Pittsburgh on Sunday. The result was an ugly 7-3 loss. Here, I'm confident we'll see the revenge-minded Bolts bounce back against a Panthers squad that schooled them by a 7-1 score in Sunrise earlier this month. We'll note that Tampa Bay is an incredible 23-4 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 goals in that situation. The Panthers certainly haven't been the same team on the road as they have been at home this season, going 13-20 in enemy territory while being outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals per contest. With both Sasha Barkov and Sam Bennett still on the shelf with injuries, they're going to be in tough against the Bolts, especially noting that Tampa Bay is a long-term 46-14 under head coach Jon Cooper when playing at home after giving up five goals or more in their previous contest, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals along the way. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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02-28-23 | Florida v. Georgia OVER 144.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Georgia at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total since the first meeting between these two teams this season - an 82-75 Florida victory back on January 7th. That game saw a closing total of 136 points. I believe the shift is warranted. Since that time, the Gators have lost forward Colin Castleton for the season with a hand injury. Much was made about the lost offense with Castleton sidelined, but there's a defensive aspect as well. Since Castleton went down, Florida has played three games. In those three contests, the Gators were torched for 34, 33 and 31 made field goals. While the reeling Bulldogs figure to offer a reprieve, at least on paper, I'm not so easily convinced. Note that Florida has been giving up scoring opportunities aplenty with 11 of its last 13 opponents hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Georgia's offense has been stuck in the mud but has also been held to 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 10 games. Here, I think we see the Bulldogs push the pace more than usual, noting that they got off a whopping 68 FG attempts in a loss but ATS cover in the last meeting between these teams. Note that Castleton had seven blocks and eight defensive boards in that game so his absence figures to open things up. I mentioned Florida's struggling defense but Georgia is in the same boat. The Bulldogs have allowed 39, 37 and 33 made field goals over their last three contests. Like Florida, Georgia has also had a difficult time slowing down the opposition, yielding at least 57 FG attempts in 15 of its last 17 games. After a lull in late January and early February, the Gators have connected on 32, 29, 22, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-27-23 | West Virginia v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Monday. Last Monday we saw West Virginia rout Oklahoma State but I think the shoe is on the other foot this week as the Mountaineers stay on the road for a second game in three days. WVU is coming off a narrow two-point defeat at mighty Kansas on Saturday. The Mountaineers have now hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games but I think they're in for a 'shock to the system' against a revenge-minded Cyclones squad on Monday. That's because Iowa State ranks eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 325th in adjusted tempo this season, not to mention the fact that it has faced the sixth most difficult schedule (all according to KenPom). The Cyclones are coming off three straight losses, both SU and ATS, going cold offensively at the wrong time. I do think the door is open for a breakout performance offensively here, however, noting that West Virginia has allowed 30, 26, 29, 20 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. The outlier over that stretch came against a fast-fading Oklahoma State squad last Monday. There really wasn't much separating these two teams in their earlier meeting this season - a game West Virginia won by a 76-71 score. The difference ended up being the Mountaineers making good on seven more free throws, getting to the charity stripe 31 times in that contest. The Cyclones have been a more disciplined team in that regard here at home this season, where they've yielded just 17 free throw attempts per contest. Take Iowa State (10*). |
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02-26-23 | Wolves v. Warriors OVER 234 | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Golden State at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter this contest off consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday evening in San Francisco. The Timberwolves continued to struggle defensively in Friday's 121-113 home loss to the Hornets, allowing Charlotte to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in the loss. Note that Minnesota has now allowed 43 or more made field goals in six straight games and has shown little interest (or ability) in slowing its opponents' pace, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The story for the Warriors has been more about who has been missing from the lineup than who has been in it lately but Klay Thompson did manage to lift the team to a 116-101 win over the Rockets on Friday, pouring in 42 points. That game snapped a streak of eight straight contests in which Golden State had made good on at least 40 field goals. That had a lot to do with the fact that the Warriors didn't need to go full throttle after building a 66-49 halftime lead. Like the T'Wolves, the Warriors have done little to slow the opposition lately, allowing 90 or more FG attempts in seven of their last 12 contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 29-10 with Minnesota coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 238.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 251-202 with the Warriors playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent. Take the over (8*). |
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02-26-23 | Washington v. Stanford -5.5 | Top | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Washington at 6 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Stanford's home loss against Washington State on Thursday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Cardinal as they look to take their frustrations out on Washington, and snap their three-game skid in the process, on Sunday. Washington has been fortunate to run into a very manageable schedule lately, reeling off three straight victories over Oregon, Oregon State and California. The Huskies have been fortunate that their last two opponents haven't been able to make the most of their scoring opportunities as punchless Beavers and Golden Bears squads made good on just 20 field goals apiece despite both getting off well north of 60 field goal attempts. Should the Cardinal reach that level of shot-volume here they have the potential to go off offensively. Stanford has been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 23 or more field goals in eight straight games and 28 or more in half of those contests. A tough slate of opponents let to a defensive lull from Stanford earlier this month but I did like what I saw on Thursday as the Cardinal limited Washington State to only 48 field goal attempts in the narrow defeat. Washington doesn't figure to offer a stiff test in that regard as the Huskies have managed to get off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games, making good on 23 or less in four of those contests. This is a big revenge spot for the Cardinal after they dropped an 86-69 stunner in Washington back in January. Stanford quite simply had an off shooting night and ended up chasing for much of the game, ultimately getting off a whopping 70 FG attempts but connecting on only 24 of them. I look for a much sharper performance from the revenge-minded Cardinal here. Take Stanford (10*). |
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02-26-23 | Siena v. Iona UNDER 139.5 | 60-93 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Siena and Iona at 1 pm et on Sunday. We got precisely the results we wanted from both of these teams on Friday to set up this play on Sunday afternoon. Siena held a fifth straight opponent to fewer than 70 points but fell by a 69-66 score at Rider, eclipsing the total by a bucket. Iona, meanwhile, routed Mount St. Mary's by an 80-68 score, easily shooting north of the total. While the Gaels have become known for their high-powered offense over the years, it's been a bit of a different story this season. They've leaned heavily on their defense, which has arguably been the best in the MAAC. Iona enters Sunday's contest having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, you would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Gaels got off more than 60 field goal attempts - a stark contrast to the pace we've seen from them in recent years. Siena doesn't figure likely to push the tempo here, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goals in any of its last nine contests. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Saints knocked down more than 23 field goals themselves. Siena ranks a respectable 138th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and hasn't allowed 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since New Year's Day and that contest against Fairfield still totalled only 131 points. Take the under (8*). |
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02-25-23 | Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 138.5 | Top | 79-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season got into the 150's as both sides shot exceptionally well in Indiana's 79-74 home victory. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring affair, nor do I expect it to be there in Saturday's rematch. Note that Indiana has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. The Hoosiers have hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, only one of their last eight opponents has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts and Purdue, which ranks 325th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) doesn't figure to challenge that here. The Boilermakers have limited six of their last seven opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. Since connecting on a whopping 33 field goals in a rout of Iowa on February 9th, the Boilers have made good on just 17, 22 and 27 field goals over their last three contests. With Indiana having limited five straight and 11 of its last 12 foes to 26 or fewer made field goals, I don't anticipate anything coming easy in this one, even with revenge on the minds of the Boilers on their home floor. Take the under (8*). |
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02-25-23 | Penguins v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting with the Penguins coming off a 7-2 beatdown at the hands of the Oilers and the Blues having blown a 2-0 third period lead in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Canucks on Thursday. Blues head coach Craig Berube called out his team following that latest setback - St. Louis' fourth straight loss. Pittsburgh checks in on a four-game losing streak as well. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 with the Penguins playing on the road after allowing six goals or more in their previous game over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.3 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Blues playing at home off a one-goal loss at home over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 4.7 goals in that spot. Pittsburgh skated past St. Louis by a 6-2 score in the two teams' lone previous meeting this season. That was played in Pittsburgh, where the Penguins have been a considerably stronger offensive team, back in early December. The last time we saw these teams match up in St. Louis, only five total goals were scored in a one-goal Pens victory last March. Take the under (10*). |
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02-25-23 | Oral Roberts v. South Dakota State OVER 152.5 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and South Dakota State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We got exactly the result we wanted from both of these teams two nights ago as they were both involved in lower-scoring than expected affairs to set us up with a reasonable total on Saturday. This is certainly a game South Dakota State has had circled since dropping an ugly 79-40 loss in its first meeting with Oral Roberts back in December. Note that the Jackrabbits enter this game on a serious offensive tear, having knocked down at least 27 field goals in six straight games, connecting on 30 or more in four of those contests. I do worry about South Dakota State defensively in this game, however, as it serves as a potential 'shock to the system' spot after holding a punchless UMKC offense to 50 points on 19-of-58 shooting on Thursday. Keep in mind, UMKC ranks 324th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 330th in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Oral Roberts represents a stark contrast, checking in 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 36th in adjusted tempo. Like South Dakota State, Oral Roberts has been on point offensively, making good on 30 or more field goals in six of its last seven and nine of its last 10 games overall. The Golden Eagles are vulnerable defensively, however, having allowed their last five opponents to knock down 30, 29, 25, 28 and 27 field goals. They've shown no interest (or ability) to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 14 games. South Dakota State might try to slow things down at times in this one but will be hard-pressed to do so against an ORU squad that has hoisted up 63 or more FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. Projected to be playing from behind for much of this game as a considerable home underdog, I'm not convinced the Jackrabbits will be able to avoid the temptation of a track meet here. Keep in mind, it was almost a year to the day (February 24th, 2022) that these two teams were involved in a thriller that totalled a whopping 208 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-23 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 232.5 | Top | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not convinced this will be the high-scoring track meet that most are expecting in Phoenix on Friday night. Oklahoma City is in a tough back-to-back spot after an overtime loss in Utah last night - not ideal when your conditioning might not be there after an extended All-Star break. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team as locked-in defensively as the Suns as they check in having held six of their last seven opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They allowed more than 40 made field goals just once over that stretch and that came in a game that still stayed 'under' the total in Atlanta - a game where they were short-handed on trade deadline day. Offensively, the Suns are rounding back into form with Devin Booker back in the lineup. However, they've still topped out at 43 made field goals in eight of their last nine games. The outlier came in a game where they shot the lights out against Sacramento just before the break (that contest still totalled 'only' 229 points). The Thunder have limited each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals in regulation time. Last night's contest in Utah ended a stretch of four straight games in which they had held the opposition to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City was red hot from the field earlier in the month but has since cooled off, connecting on 38, 42 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last three contests. This is actually the first meeting between these two teams this season. They met on four occasions last season with 222 serving as the highest posted total. None of those four matchups surpassed the total we're working with tonight. As was often the case last season, I'm confident we'll see one, if not both teams bring their 'A' game defensively on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-23 | Fairfield v. Niagara OVER 124.5 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Niagara at 7 pm et on Friday. We got the result we wanted to set up this play in last Sunday's low-scoring 61-52 Niagara loss at Marist. While the Purple Eagles rate a ridiculous 350th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom), the oddsmakers have adjusted their totals accordingly and we haven't seen them post consecutive 'under' results since January 20th and 22nd (only one of those games stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight). Fairfield has seen each of its last three contests go 'over' the total. This isn't the same stout defensive Stags squad we've come to expect. They've allowed five of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals (one of those results was aided by overtime). While Fairfield won't 'wow' you offensively, it has at least shown some consistency, making good on 21 or more field goals in 10 straight games entering Friday's matchup. This is an ideal 'get right' spot for Niagara's offense. It got off 59 field goal attempts but could only make good on 17 of them against an improved Marist squad last Sunday. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to December 18th to find the last time the Purple Eagles held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. They've yielded 24 or more successful field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. In the lone previous matchup between these two teams this season we saw 146 total points despite the two combining to knock down only seven three-pointers (they average 12 made threes per game combined this season). The pace was there in that game and Fairfield was able to get to the free throw line with consistency (as has often been the case this season as the Stags average 21 FT attempts per game). I like the fact that this game will be played at Niagara as the Purple Eagles have been a more efficient offensive team on their home floor, averaging two more made field goals per game compared to their season average, despite getting off one less field goal attempt on average. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-23 | Washington State v. Stanford UNDER 135 | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Stanford at 11 pm et on Thursday. A lot has happened since these two Pac-12 squads last met back on January 14th. Most notably, the 'over' has gone 5-4 in Washington State's last nine games and 6-4 in Stanford's last 10 contests, including three straight Cardinal 'over' results entering Thursday's rematch. I'm expecting a game closely resembling what we saw back in January here, noting that game totalled just 119 points with both teams topping out at 22 made field goals and neither getting off more than 51 field goal attempts. Note that Washington State has held five of its last six opponents to 56 or fewer FG attempts. Stanford hasn't enjoyed the same type of defensive success and let's face it, the sudden uptick in the Cardinal's pace hasn't been working in their favor as they've lost four of their last five games. With that being said, I do think Stanford can get back on track defensively here, noting that Washington State ranks 328th in the country in adjusted tempo this season, according to KenPom. The Cougars knocked down 29 and 27 field goals last week as it enjoyed consecutive wins against Oregon State and Oregon. Prior to that they had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. This isn't a court where Washington State has enjoyed a ton of offensive success in recent years, knocking down 20, 22, 21 and 24 field goals in its last four trips. Stanford has been rolling along offensively, making good on 28 or more field goals in three straight games but again, that has had something to do with playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing from the Cardinal. Note that it figures to face resistance here as Washington State ranks 53rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season despite having faced the 15th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-23 | Blazers v. Kings -5.5 | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We successfully faded the Kings in their last game before the All-Star break as they couldn't overcome a blistering shooting performance from the Suns in a double-digit loss in Phoenix. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Sacramento as it aims to bounce back on its home floor. We've seen wild swings in production from the Kings offense lately. They've knocked down 46 or more field goals in five of their last nine games. They were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in the other four contests. I do think they turn in a strong offensive performance here, noting that the Blazers have allowed 48, 47, 46, 47, 42 and 45 made field goals in their last six contests - consistently bad in other words. The Kings are by no means a defensive juggernaut but they have held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, Portland has been held to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in nine of its last 11 contests. I mentioned the high ceiling of the Kings offense. Perhaps the opposite could be said of the Blazers, at least in recent weeks, as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. This is a double-revenge spot for the Kings as they look to get back at the Blazers after dropping a 115-108 decision at home against Portland back in October. Of note, Jerami Grant poured in a team-high 23 points, getting to the free throw line 13 times and knocking down all three of his three-point attempts, in that game. He's expected to return to the lineup on Thursday but hasn't played in just shy of two weeks. He's also struggled to recapture the form he displayed earlier in the season, scoring fewer than 20 points in seven of his last 11 contests. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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02-23-23 | Flames v. Golden Knights -140 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Flames delivered a much-needed 6-3 win over the Coyotes in Arizona last night but I'm not sold on them keeping it rolling as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Golden Knights on Thursday. Vegas had its five-game winning streak stopped at the hands of the suddenly red hot Blackhawks in Chicago two nights ago. That came by way of a shootout. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Golden Knights bounce back on Thursday, noting that they've gone 17-13 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.3 goals and own a perfect 7-0 all-time record against the Flames here at T-Mobile Arena. The Flames haven't won consecutive games since January 21st and 23rd and despite last night's strong performance I still believe head coach Darryl Sutter's days are numbered behind the bench. Note that the Flames are just 7-14 after scoring four goals or more in their last game this season, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. They're 1-5 after scoring six goals or more in their previous contest, outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. Vegas, meanwhile, will be looking to improve on its terrific 29-10 record when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here after dropping a 3-2 decision in Calgary back in October. It has outscored the opposition by 1.3 goals on average in that spot. Take Vegas (10*). |
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02-23-23 | Ducks v. Capitals -1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington -1.5 goals over Anaheim at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Capitals are on a major slide right now, losers of five games in a row, scoring two goals or less in four of those contests. The last time Washington won a game by two goals or more, we were on board with a play on the Caps back on January 19th in Arizona. Since then, Washington has gone an incredible 11 straight games without securing a victory by two goals or more. The Caps longest such streak this season prior to their current one lasted only six games. The absence of Alex Ovechkin has certainly played a role. It's possible he returns to the lineup on Thursday but even if he doesn't, I'm still comfortable laying the extra goal with Washington in this spot. That's because the opposition is the Anaheim Ducks. Arguably the league's worst team, the Ducks have lost six straight contests with only one of those contests being decided by fewer than three goals. Anaheim has lost 24 of 32 road games this season, outscored by 1.8 goals per game on average along the way. The Caps are just 14-15 on home ice this season but have actually outscored their opponents by 0.2 goals on average. While Washington is still dealing with some key absences, the Ducks are arguably in worse shape, playing without the likes of Troy Terry, Adam Henrique and possibly John Klingberg as well (he's listed as questionable for Thursday's contest). Getting a win here should be 'mission critical' for the Caps as the schedule only gets tougher with a visit from the New York Rangers on deck before playing six of their next seven games on the road. Take Washington -1.5 goals (8*). |
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02-22-23 | Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 155 | 74-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and N.C. State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not convinced the oddsmakers can set this total high enough as the Demon Deacons and Wolfpack renew acquaintances on Wednesday night in Raleigh. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 156 points back on January 28th. The pace was certainly there on that night as we saw a whopping 129 field goal attempts. The Wolfpack did their part, knocking down 32-of-69 shots from the field but the Demon Deacons had an off night shooting the basketball, connecting on only 26-of-60 field goal attempts. You could say that N.C. State has been fortunate that its last few opponents haven't been able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. The Wolfpack have allowed 61, 62 and 62 FG attempts over that stretch but none of those three foes managed to knock down more than 27. Wake Forest figures to test N.C. State in that regard here as the revenge-minded Demon Deacons have made good on 28 or more field goals in eight of their last 13 contests. On the flip side, Wake Forest leaves a lot to be desired defensively, having allowed its last seven opponents to knock down 28, 32, 27, 27, 30, 27 and 37 field goals. Meanwhile, N.C. State is locked-in offensively right now, pushing the pace and making the most of its scoring opportunities having connected on 37, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three games since an embarrassing 19-of-57 shooting effort against one of the best defensive teams in the country, Virginia, back on February 7th. All told, the Wolfpack have made good on 28 or more field goals in six of their last eight games overall. The Demon Deacons have shown little interest (or ability) to slow down their opponents, allowing 60 or more FG attempts in seven of their last nine games and 63 or more in four straight contests. This game is a matchup of two teams that both rank inside the top-75 in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Take the over (8*). |
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02-22-23 | Arkansas State v. UL - Lafayette -14 | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Sun Belt Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Arkansas State at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season saw Louisiana-Lafayette prevail by an 80-71 score on the road but that final tally doesn't tell the whole story. Arkansas State shot the lights out from beyond the arc to keep pace in that contest, knocking down 11-of-22 three-point attempts. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves average just 6-of-18 shooting from three-point range this season. In fact, Arkansas State is one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country, ranking 308th in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced only the 256th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Not only that but the Red Wolves rank 342nd in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom) so the scoring opportunities are rarely there to keep pace with superior opponents. That didn't stop them from securing a 75-70 win over Georgia State last time out. Of course, the Panthers have their own issues, ranking 320th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency but that's another story. Louisiana-Lafayette has hit a bit of a lull having dropped three of its last four games including a 74-68 decision on the road against a good James Madison squad last time out. I'm confident we'll see the Ragin' Cajuns take their frustrations out on the Red Wolves here, however. Note that Louisiana ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 139th toughest slate of opponents. The Ragin' Cajuns have been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 24 or more field goals in eight straight and 27 of 28 games overall this season. That's in stark contrast to Arkansas State, which has made good on 24 or more field goals just once in its last eight contests. The Red Wolves had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone making them, hoisting up 51 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games entering tonight's clash. On the flip side, while it may seem impressive that Arkansas State has held its last five opponents to just 21, 21, 25, 21 and 25 made field goals, that's had everything to do with the fact that those five foes all got off 57 or fewer FG attempts. Louisiana-Lafayette has hoisted up 58 or more FG attempts in six of its last eight games and figures to push the pace here, noting that it shot 29-of-56 in its previous road tilt against Arkansas State this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). |
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02-21-23 | Flyers v. Oilers -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton -1.5 goals over Philadelphia at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Flyers will look to complete the 'Alberta sweep' after defeating Calgary by a 4-3 score yesterday afternoon. I simply feel Philadelphia is in the 'wrong place at the wrong time' as it makes the short trip to Edmonton on Tuesday. The Oilers will be looking for some quick revenge after dropping a 2-1 decision in a shootout in Philadelphia on February 9th. They'll also be looking to take out their frustrations after blowing a 3-0 lead in an eventual 5-4 shootout loss to the Rangers on Friday and then coughing up another 3-0 lead, not to mention a 5-3 third period lead, in a 6-5 loss in Colorado on Sunday. All is not lost as Edmonton has collected a point in three straight and an incredible 14 of its last 15 contests. I look for the Oilers to 'get right' here noting that the Flyers had lost four games in a row prior to defeating the reeling Flames yesterday. They turned to Samuel Ersson between the pipes yesterday, improving to 6-1 in his seven starts this season. They'll likely go back to Carter Hart on Tuesday. He's had another up-and-down season and checks in having posted a less than impressive .890 save percentage with the Flyers dropping three of his last four starts including consecutive 6-2 losses in Seattle and Vancouver to start this road trip. Speaking of goaltenders, the Oilers have inexplicably given Jack Campbell the last three starts and his struggles continued as he owns a .871 save percentage over his last four starts. Unlikely All-Star Stuart Skinner should get the nod here and while the wins haven't come, he has certainly been better than Campbell, recording a .902 save percentage over his last four starts. While the Oilers could be without Evander Kane for a second straight game, the argument could be made that the Flyers are dealing with a bigger absence in Travis Konecny, who is questionable to play after missing Monday's contest in Calgary. Here, we'll note that the Flyers are a miserable 3-15 when coming off a one-goal road victory over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.2 goals in that situation. Take Edmonton -1.5 goals (10*). |
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02-21-23 | Youngstown State v. Robert Morris OVER 144 | 64-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Youngstown State and Robert Morris at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While few are paying much attention, Youngstown State is currently on an incredible shooting run having knocked down 30 or more field goals in six straight games. In fact, you would have to go back 24 games - all the way to November 20th - to find the last time the Penguins were held to fewer than 26 made field goals. While the schedule has had something to do with it (they've faced the 326th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom), the fact that they rank 30th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) is impressive to say the least. While Robert Morris has held up well defensively of late (it has limited four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals), the toughest offensive opponent it faced over that stretch was Cleveland State and the Vikings check in just 185th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 294th in adjusted tempo this season. Youngstown State should present somewhat of a 'shock to the system' here. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 'only' 134 points in a Penguins blowout victory. Keep in mind, Robert Morris made good on just one three-pointers and five free throws in that contest. The Colonials average eight made threes and 12 successful free throws per contest here at home where tonight's rematch will be played. Robert Morris is by no means an offensive juggernaut but has knocked down at least 21 field goals in 23 straight games and could catch Youngstown State letting its guard down here after the Penguins routed Milwaukee and Green Bay by 29 and 30 points in their last two games. Take the over (8*). |
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02-20-23 | Hawaii v. CS Bakersfield OVER 122.5 | Top | 61-50 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Cal State-Bakersfield at 8 pm et on Monday. Bakersfield has quietly gone on a 9-0 'over' run over its last nine contests and that includes an earlier 72-69 loss on the road against tonight's opponent, Hawaii, back on January 28th. The Roadrunners were held to fewer than 20 made field goals in seven of their first 18 games this season but have since found some consistency at the offensive end of the floor, knocking down 22 or more field goals in each of their last eight games, despite ranking 344th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. CSUB is also coming off a stellar defensive effort in an 'upset' win at Cal-Poly last time out. Stringing together strong defensive performances has proven difficult for the Roadrunners this season, however. Note that after holding an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals, they've allowed 72, 63, 79, 65, 71, 67 and 79 points in their next contest. They've actually held two of their last three foes to less than 20 successful FG attempts, but those games came against two of the country's weakest offensive teams in Cal State-Northridge and Cal-Poly. Hawaii ranks an impressive 66th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but has also faced only the 272nd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). The Rainbow Warriors have actually allowed seven of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate Long Beach State couldn't make the most of its scoring opportunities on Saturday as the 49ers got off 60 FG attempts but only connected on 25 of them (Hawaii won that game 70-67). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 31-16 in Hawaii's last 47 games as a road favorite or pk'em and 9-1 in CSUB's last 10 games when coming off an outright win as an underdog. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-23 | Rider v. Quinnipiac OVER 140 | Top | 88-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Rider and Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday. When these teams last met this season they combined to score 'only' 135 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 143.5. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Rider has gone on an offensive tear over the last month or so, knocking down 29, 30, 26, 28, 25 and 30 field goals over its last six games and that's without facing the conference's fastest-paced team, Iona, a single time over that stretch. The Broncs defensive numbers have been terrific lately as well. They had held 11 straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals before giving up 26 in Friday's 81-78 loss to Canisius. With that being said, those results were certainly due in part to the slow-paced opponents they faced. Here, they'll be up against a Quinnipiac squad that ranks 57th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Like the Broncs, the Bobcats have been consistently good offensively of late, connecting on 27, 29, 23, 29, 24 and 24 field goals over their last six games. The problem for Quinnipiac is that it is still giving up too many scoring opportunities to the opposition, allowing nine consecutive opponents to hoist up at least 58 field goal attempts. Given how hot Rider has been from the field, there's a good chance it goes off here if the pace ticks up at all. With that being said, the Bobcats are favored for a reason. I'm confident both teams do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-23 | North Carolina v. NC State OVER 151.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and N.C. State at 1 pm et on Sunday. These two teams combined to score 'only' 149 points in their first matchup this season. Interestingly, the Tar Heels scored 80 points in that game despite knocking down only 20-of-54 field goal attempts. The difference proved to be their ridiculous 36-of-39 performance from the free throw line. They were certainly fortunate that the Wolfpack couldn't make the most of their scoring opportunities in that game as N.C. State did get off 62 field goal attempts (connecting on only 26 of them). I would certainly anticipate a sharper offensive performance from the Wolfpack in this home rematch, noting that they enter on a serious tear having made good on 30 or more field goals in four of their last six contests. North Carolina has done a good job of keeping its opponents' pace down lately, but has still allowed 24 or more made field goals in eight straight games. Meanwhile, N.C. State has been fortunate that its last two opponents, Boston College and Syracuse, have had off nights shooting the basketball as those two foes hoisted up 61 and 62 FG attempts, respectively. North Carolina figures to be able to take advantage of that potential high shot volume, noting that it has knocked down 30, 32 and 29 field goals over its last three contests. Take the over (8*). |
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02-18-23 | Red Wings v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Seattle at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. The Red Wings have scored a whopping 16 goals in their first three games on their current road trip. I don't expect them to have an easy time scoring as their western road swing continues in Seattle on Saturday, however. The Kraken have held eight of their last 11 opponents to three goals or less. Seattle has scored 12 goals over its last three contests but will be up against a Red Wings squad that has allowed three goals or less in nine of its last 11 games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 35-21 with Detroit coming off a game in which it scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. The 'under' is also 10-2 with the Kraken coming off a game that totalled eight goals or more this season, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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02-18-23 | Baylor v. Kansas OVER 148.5 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baylor and Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in the first meeting between these two teams this season as Baylor prevailed by a score of 75-69 in a game that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. The Bears were fortunate to win that contest as they struggled to make good on their scoring opportunities, connecting on just 23-of-62 field goal attempts. While they're the underdog this time around, I do actually expect a better offensive showing, noting that they rank first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom and enter this game having made good on 25 or more field goals in five straight games. Few teams are as locked-in offensively as the Jayhawks right now. They've knocked down 33 or more field goals in each of their last three games. While they've posted a couple of standout defensive performances over their last five contests I still think it's worth noting that they haven't held a single opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game this season. Part of that has to do with the fact that they play at a fast pace, ranking 70th in the nation in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Kansas has hoisted up 60 or more FG attempts in five of its last six games overall and I'm confident we'll see it go on the aggressive in this 'revenge' spot on Saturday. Baylor, while a solid defensive team, has allowed nine consecutive opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals. Take the over (10*). |
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02-18-23 | Boston College v. Florida State OVER 141.5 | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Florida State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off poor offensive showings last time out but I see this as an ideal 'get-right' spot in that regard for both on Saturday. Boston College once again got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts (for the third time in its last four games) but could only make good on 21 of those attempts against a terrific Pittsburgh team on Tuesday. The Eagles have still connected on 26 or more field goals in three of their last four contests and should benefit from facing a Florida State team that ranks 254th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Seminoles have apparently thrown defense out the window during a miserable 1-6 slide, allowing all seven of those opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals. Florida State is favored for a reason here, however. Boston College has also struggled defensively of late, allowing three straight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts and six of its last seven foes to make good on at least 26 field goals. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season so it's a little tougher for the oddsmakers to gauge where exactly the total should be set. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (8*). |
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02-17-23 | Stars v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Friday. With the 'under' having cashed in each of the Stars last nine games and seven of the Wild's last eight games overall, we're starting to see adjustments from the oddsmakers with a 5.5 popping up for the third time in Dallas' last four games and for the first time in the last four games for Minnesota (the last time it did the Wild produced their most recent 'over' result). We'll go the contrarian route here as I feel this game is well-positioned to be higher-scoring than expected. Note that the Stars are operating with a small margin for error defensively right now, having allowed 34, 39, 31 and 37 shots on goal over their last four contests. The Wild had allowed 30 or more shots on goal in seven of their last eight games before holding Colorado to only 19 on Wednesday. In that contest, Minnesota flipped the script, firing 43 shots on goal but quite simply ran into a hot goaltender. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Stars coming off five or six loses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.9 goals. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Wild playing at home off a one-goal defeat against a division opponent, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 8.6 goals in that spot. While both teams boast hot goaltenders, I don't mind the matchup here. Stars starting netminder Jake Oettinger is having a terrific season but the Wild managed to score five goals against him just two months ago. Wild goaltender Filip Gustavsson has arguably been better than supposed number-one Marc-Andre Fleury this season but the last time the Stars saw him between the pipes they scored three goals against him (before adding an empty-netter) earlier this month. Fleury has posted a less-than-impressive .881 save percentage over his last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-17-23 | Dayton v. Loyola-Chicago +7.5 | Top | 65-49 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Dayton at 7 pm et on Friday. Most completely wrote off Loyola-Chicago from a betting perspective in mid-January and perhaps for good reason as the Ramblers had started the 22-23 campaign with a miserable 3-15 ATS record through 18 games. Since then, however, Loyola-Chicago has gone a respectable 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS over its last seven games and while it sits in last-place in the Atlantic-10 standings, all is not lose given all 15 teams will take part in the conference tournament in March. Here, the Ramblers will have revenge on their minds after dropping a tough 85-81 decision at Dayton back on January 31st, in a game where the Flyers owned a 31-13 disparity in terms of free throw attempts (keeping in mind Dayton only averages three more trips to the charity stripe than Loyola-Chicago this season). That game kicked off a 4-1 ATS run for the Ramblers and I look for them to improve on that mark here. Note that Loyola-Chicago has really turned things around defensively. After a stretch that saw it allow 28 or more made field goals in five of seven games from December 22nd to January 18th, they've yielded 26 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven contests. The outlier came in a game where they allowed St. Joseph's to knock down 28 of a whopping 68 field goal attempts. Dayton is highly unlikely to approach that level of shot volume here, noting that it ranks 339th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Offensively, we've seen more consistency from the Ramblers during their recent uptick as they've knocked down 23 or more field goals in six of their last seven games with the low-water mark coming earlier this week when they made good on only 21 field goals but still pulled out a 64-62 win at UMass. As I mentioned, Dayton plays at a very slow pace. The Flyers have hoisted up 56 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games overall. While they are a terrific defensive team, it's not as if they've been completely shutting down opposing offenses. Dayton has yielded at least 20 made field goals in 12 straight contests, including that game against Loyola-Chicago in which the Ramblers connected on 29-of-59 FG attempts. These two teams have faced almost identical schedules in terms of difficulty this season (according to KenPom) and while Dayton has proven to be the superior squad to be sure, Loyola-Chicago has at least narrowed the gap in recent weeks. I'm still not convinced the betting marketplace has caught up with the Ramblers improved play so I'll grab all the points I can get here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Stanford v. UCLA OVER 130.5 | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and UCLA at 11 pm et on Thursday. It's easy to forget that the first meeting between these two teams produced 146 points as that matchup took place way back on December 1st. Since then, UCLA has been an 'under' machine, cashing at a 12-5 clip over its last 16 games. That leads us to a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Stanford enjoyed a nice run in late-January but has largely been an afterthought in the Pac-12 this season. With that being said, I have a lot of respect for the Cardinal offensively, noting that they rank 64th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, despite facing the nation's 63rd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). You would have to go back 19 games to find the last time Stanford was held to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game (I use that number as UCLA has held six of its last 11 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals). Over their last five games, the Cardinal have impressively knocked down 28, 26, 24, 23 and 33 field goals. They've scored at least 62 points in eight straight contests. Unfortunately, the Cardinal defense hasn't been along for the ride, allowing 25, 29, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last four games. There's a good chance we see the Bruins offense go off in this one, noting that Stanford has also yielded more than 60 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests opening the door for a sharp-shooting Bruins squad that has made good on 25 or more field goals in four straight games, despite hoisting up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in two of those contests. UCLA ranks 24th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 39th toughest slate of opponents to date (both according to KenPom once again). I do expect the Bruins to get pushed a bit in this one and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Flyers v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We got the result we wanted in this same matchup on Sunday afternoon as the two teams combined to score seven goals in a Kraken road victory. I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as the scene shifts to Seattle for Thursday's rematch. Note that Kraken home games have been considerably lower-scoring than their road affairs. While their road tilts have averaged north of 7.0 goals per contest, their home games have produced an average total of only 6.0 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 16-9-1 clip. Goals haven't been easy to come by for the Flyers over the last month or so. Going back to January 19th they've scored four goals in a game only once (in a game that totalled just four goals), three goals three times and two goals or less on six occasions. It's a similar story for Seattle. It has produced four goals or more three times since January 16th, three goals twice and two goals or less in seven contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-3 with the Flyers playing on the road off an 'over' result this season, leading to an average total of 5.2 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-2 with the Kraken coming off a one-goal loss this season, which is the case here, producing an average total of 5.6 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. We have a good setup for this play on Thursday as both the Clippers and Suns shot the lights out in their respective games two nights ago but are unlikely to reach those heights in a much tougher matchup here. Los Angeles took advantage of an undermanned Warriors team playing the second of back-to-backs on Tuesday, putting up a whopping 134 points in a 10-point victory. Kawhi Leonard knocked down 12-of-17 shot attempts including a ridiculous 7-of-9 from three-point range. Norm Powell also enjoyed an outlier of a night off the bench, pouring in 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting. Powell is expected to sit out Thursday's game, however. Prior to that contest, the Clippers had been held to 38 and 42 made field goals in their previous two games, getting off just 86 and 85 field goal attempts in those contests - both of which stayed 'under' the total. Defensively, the Clips have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding five of their last eight foes to 84 or fewer FG attempts. The simple fact is, their last three opponents have shot incredibly well. I do think we see Los Angeles tighten the screws defensively here in its last game prior to the All-Star break against a familiar opponent in the Suns. Note that while Phoenix has made good on 42 or more field goals in all five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2022, it scored 'only' 106, 103, 109, 112 and 111 points in those five contests. The Suns did knock down a whopping 50 field goals in a night where everything was going in against a subpar Kings defense on Tuesday. Prior to that they had topped out at 43 made field goals over their last seven games. Few teams are as locked-in defensively as the Suns right now. They've limited five of their last six opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and have allowed just 35, 38, 43, 36 and 37 made field goals over that stretch. The lone outlier came in a road game at Atlanta with a short-handed lineup on trade deadline day last Thursday. Phoenix has certainly had Los Angeles' number defensively, holding it to 96 points or less in an incredible four of five meetings since last January (all five of those contests stayed 'under' the total). Take the under (10*). |
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02-15-23 | Heat -1 v. Nets | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The excitement around the new-look, youthful Brooklyn Nets has faded somewhat as they've dropped consecutive games against the 76ers and Knicks. Despite catching fire from the field for stretches, the Nets still managed to knock down only 35 field goals and score just 106 points in Monday's lopsided defeat in Manhattan. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Brooklyn knocked down 40+ field goals in a game and things certainly won't get any easier as they host a Heat team coming off a loss two nights ago on Wednesday. Miami ran into a red-hot shooting Nuggets squad on Monday, falling by four points. Still, the Heat have held an incredible 16 straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and 17 of their last 22 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven and 10 of their last 12 games overall. On many occasions, the opportunities just haven't been there in abundance as Miami does play at a slow pace. I don't anticipate that being an issue here, however, noting that the Nets have allowed four of their last seven opponents to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts. This is undoubtedly a game the Heat have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 102-101 decision at home against the Nets back on January 8th. Brooklyn has now won back-to-back meetings in this series which is notable as it hasn't posted three straight victories over the Heat since 2017-18. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-15-23 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +8 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a previous big ticket on Georgia Tech in its upset home win over Miami in early January but have left the Yellow Jackets alone since and probably for good reason as they followed up that victory with a 1-7 ATS slide. However, we have seen signs of life once again from Georgia Tech lately as it enters Wednesday's matchup with Virginia Tech off three straight ATS victories. Last time out it suffered a narrow one-point loss as a 13-point underdog at Wake Forest. While few are paying attention to them, I believe the Yellow Jackets are in good position to at the very least take the Hokies down to the wire on Wednesday. We haven't necessarily seen the payoff just yet but the Jackets are doing a nice job of pushing the pace, having gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four and seven of their last 10 games overall. Here, they'll face a Hokies squad that has been terrific offensively in recent weeks but it has seemingly come at the expense of their defensive play. Virginia Tech checks in having allowed 29, 23, 35, 25, 29 and 34 made field goals over its last six contests. Of those six opponents only two got off more than 60 field goal attempts so it's not as if the opposition has found success only by volume-shooting. As I mentioned, Virginia Tech is on a tear offensively, however Georgia Tech does figure to offer some resistance. The Yellow Jackets check in a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 66th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). They've held their last four opponents to just 21, 26, 23 and 23 made field goals and that's despite three of those games coming on the road. Also note that Georgia Tech has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and ranks 220th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season. There's a path for the revenge-minded Yellow Jackets (they dropped both meetings in this series last season) to effectively shorten this game and stay inside the generous pointspread. Take Georgia Tech (10*). |
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02-14-23 | Penguins -150 v. Sharks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Sharks on Sunday in Washington but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade them as they return home to host the Penguins on Tuesday. Pittsburgh is coming off an ugly 6-0 loss in Los Angeles on Saturday, evening its record at 1-1 on its current western road trip. This is undoubtedly a game the Pens have had circled since dropping a 6-4 decision at home against the Sharks on January 28th (as -230 favorites). While San Jose has enjoyed some success on the road this season it is just 5-18 on home ice, where it has been outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal per contest. The Sharks have won consecutive games only three times previously this season and I don't expect them to accomplish that feat here. Note that Pittsburgh is a long-term 87-75 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |