Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-03-24 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 246.5 | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Bucks will certainly be in a foul mood entering this game after they dropped consecutive matchups in Denver and Portland to open their current road trip. I believe this contest has track meet potential as the Mavericks also look to bounce back following a drubbing at the hands of the Timberwolves last time out. Milwaukee continues to push the pace having hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in 12 of its last 16 games. While it hasn't been as consistent shooting-wise as we've become accustomed to it has still managed to connect on 45 or more field goals in three of its last five games and seven of its last 11 contests. Dallas is just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS over its last seven contests. The Mavs rested a number of players in their most recent game in Minnesota on Wednesday and struggled mightily as a result. Note that prior to that game, the Mavs had connected on 43 or more field goals in four of their last five games. They continue to have a tough time slowing the opposition, allowing four of their last five foes to knock down at least 45 field goals. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they held an opponent to 40 or fewer made field goals. The first meeting between these two teams was a high-scoring one as they combined to score 257 points. Note that the 'over' is 26-21 in the Bucks last 47 games following an upset loss and 12-10 in their last 22 contests following consecutive defeats. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the 'over' go 24-17 in their lat 41 games following a double-digit loss and 23-18 in their last 41 contests after scoring 100 points or less in their previous game. Take the over (8*). |
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02-03-24 | Kings v. Bulls -1.5 | 123-115 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Sacramento at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Kings drilled the Pacers in Indiana last night as they were in a smash spot, rested and revenge-minded facing a Pacers team that had just suffered an emotional loss in New York the night previous. This is a much different situation as the Kings play the second of back-to-backs against a rested Bulls squad that last played on Wednesday, when they delivered a 117-110 win in Charlotte. Chicago has been playing reasonably well, going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS over its last seven contests. The Bulls have impressively held seven of their last nine opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, they've connected on 48, 47, 45, 47, 42, 38 and 45 field goals over their last seven contests. They figure to get their opportunities against a road-weary Kings squad here. Sacramento has allowed 42 or more made field goals in seven of its last nine games. While the Kings took full advantage of a tired Pacers team last night, connecting on 51 field goals, they've actually been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in four of their last six contests. Note that Sacramento has won three straight meetings in this series ATS but hasn't delivered four or more consecutive ATS victories over the Bulls since 2013-14. The Kings check in 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit road win and 15-17 ATS in their last 32 road contests with the line set between +3 and -3. Chicago is 29-21 ATS in its last 50 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 25-21 ATS in its last 46 contests following a road win. Take Chicago (8*). |
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02-03-24 | California v. Arizona State OVER 144.5 | Top | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between California and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. California ran into a buzz saw in Arizona on Thursday, dropping a 91-65 decision. That game still managed to stay 'under' the total - the Bears second straight 'under' result. Meanwhile, Arizona State checks in off a relatively low-scoring home defeat at the hands of Stanford on Thursday. The Sun Devils have struggled to find their shooting legs in recent games but should be afforded plenty of opportunities against a very forgiving Cal defense on Saturday. Note that the Bears have allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down 25 or more field goals. They've also yielded 58 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Cal has at least been consistent offensively, connecting on 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Saturday's action. The Sun Devils rank an impressive 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom but that's largely based on early season returns. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on 25 or more field goals. Note that the pace was there in the first meeting between these two teams this season (both hoisted up 60+ field goal attempts) but we saw just 48 combined made field goals in a game that cruised 'under' the total with 140 points. Note that the 'over' is 14-9 in Cal's last 23 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 13-11 in the Bears last 24 contests following a road loss. Arizona State has seen the 'over' go 6-4 in its last 10 games following a home loss in-conference and 7-4 in its last 11 home contests with the total set between 140 and 149.5 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-24 | Kansas State -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Saturday. Kansas State has fallen on hard times over its last three games and in particular in its last two contests, scoring only 52 and 53 points in losses against Houston and Oklahoma, respectively. I expect the Wildcats to bounce back on Saturday as they draw a manageable matchup at Oklahoma State. Kansas State still boasts a terrific defense. It has held eight of its last nine opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. It should thrive in this matchup, noting that Oklahoma State has knocked down 22 or fewer field goals in six straight games. On the flip side, the Cowboys have sagged defensively, allowing nine of their last 11 opponents to connect on at least 25 field goals. In fact, five of their last eight foes have connected on 30 or more field goals. Note that Kansas State is 16-11 ATS in its last 27 lined road games. The Wildcats are also 5-1 ATS in their last six contests following an upset loss, as is the case here. Oklahoma State is a miserable 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games as an underdog and 10-16 ATS in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take Kansas State (10*). |
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02-02-24 | San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 142 | Top | 60-90 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose State and Nevada at 11 pm et on Friday. San Jose State sits tied for last place in the Mountain West Conference with just one win in eight games this season. Meanwhile, Nevada is 3-4 and staring up at seven other teams in the conference. Needless to say, I don't expect either team to play lock-down defense on Friday night in Reno. Note that San Jose State is on an incredible run of defensive futility as it has allowed five straight opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field with its last four foes knocking down 33, 34, 30 and 30 field goals. Nevada should be in a foul mood after connecting on just 19 field goals in a blowout loss at New Mexico last time out. Note that the Wolf Pack had made good on 35 and 39 field goals in their two previous contests. They've gotten bogged down by the better teams they've faced in conference play but San Jose State certainly doesn't fall into that category. The question is whether the Spartans can produce enough offense to help this total along. I'm confident they can, noting they've actually been reasonably consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in 11 of their last 12 games. In fact, they rank a respectable 128th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. San Jose state played quite slow early in the season but has picked up the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in six of its last 12 games. Note that the 'over' is 10-6 in the Spartans last 16 games as a double-digit road underdog and 8-3 in their last 11 contests following consecutive 'under' results. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 12-10 in Nevada's last 22 games following a loss in-conference and a long-term 21-8 in its last 29 contests after scoring 55 points or less in its previous game. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-24 | Magic v. Wolves UNDER 212 | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This game figures to have a bit of an old-school feel as the Magic and Timberwolves have proven to be two of the more slow-paced teams in the league while also proving elite defensively. Orlando has held five of its last six opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts. Going back further, nine of its last 12 opponents have gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a similar story with the T'Wolves as they've limited four of their last five foes to fewer than 80 field goal attempts. In fact, of Minnesota's last 18 opponents, only five have managed to connect on 40 or more field goals. As I mentioned, both teams are also playing at a slow pace themselves. Orlando has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 11 contests. Minnesota has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 205 points back in early January. Note that the 'under' is 19-14 in Orlando's last 33 games following a road win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-8 in Minnesota's last 25 games as a home favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points and 6-1 in its last seven contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite (including a perfect 3-0 this season). Take the under (8*). |
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02-02-24 | Suns v. Hawks OVER 247 | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Friday. This projects as a track meet between the Suns and Hawks in Atlanta on Friday. Few teams are as locked-in offensively as the Suns right now as they've knocked down more than 40 field goals in 11 straight games, connecting on at least 46 field goals in eight of those contests. They draw a smash spot on Friday as the Hawks have been matador-like defensively, allowing their last six opponents to make good on 43, 43, 51, 51, 41 and 48 field goals. Note that three of the Hawks last five foes have gotten off at least 90 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Atlanta is quietly thriving offensively, knocking down 51, 44 and 53 field goals over its last three games. It was only a matter of time before the shots started falling and the Hawks preferred pace is fast, noting they've hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 17 contests. Once stingy, the Suns have been far more forgiving defensively of late, allowing seven of their last nine foes to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 22-11 in the Suns last 33 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'over' is also a perfect 8-0 in their last eight contests following a win by 15 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-12 in the Hawks last 27 games as a home underdog and 20-11 in their last 31 contests after scoring 136 points or more in their previous game. Take the over (8*). |
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02-02-24 | Clippers v. Pistons OVER 237.5 | Top | 136-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers may be known for their defensive prowess but it's been their offense that has paced them to 30+ wins this season. Los Angeles enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in eight of their last 11 games. The Clips are also playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing, hoisting up 95 or more field goal attempts in three of the first four games on their current road trip. They should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities on Friday as the Pistons have allowed 21 of their last 28 opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. That's not to mention the fact that eight of their last 11 foes have gotten off 90+ field goal attempts. The question is whether Detroit can produce enough to help this total along. I believe it can. Note that the Pistons have made good on 43 or more field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They're catching the Clips at the right time as they've allowed six of their last seven foes to knock down at least 42 field goals and haven't exactly been smothering in nature, giving up 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. Note that the 'over' is 33-25 in the Clippers last 58 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 27-22 in Detroit's last 49 contests after posting consecutive ATS victories. Take the over (10*). |
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02-01-24 | Oregon v. USC +2 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on USC plus the points over Oregon at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. This will be the second meeting between these Pac-12 opponents this season after Oregon posted an 82-74 win in Eugene back on December 28th. Note that the Ducks held a major advantage at the free throw line in that contest, getting there 32 times compared to the Trojans' 15. Oregon outscored USC 26-10 from the charity stripe, making up more than the difference in the game. The Trojans enter this contest riding a five-game losing streak. They connected on just 17 field goals in a dismal showing at home against UCLA last time out. Note that the only previous time they were held to fewer than 20 made field goals this season they rebounded with a double-digit win in their next contest (albeit against Brown). I like USC's chances of rebounding offensively here as well, noting that Oregon has allowed 27 or more made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Ducks have been ultra-consistent offensively but they're in uncharted territory right now having scored 70+ points in a season-high seven straight games. Oregon has won consecutive meetings in this series but hasn't delivered three straight victories over USC since owning the series from 2010-17. Note that Oregon is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite including an 0-1 ATS mark this season. USC checks in 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when the line is set between +3 and -3. Take USC (10*). |
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02-01-24 | Pacers v. Knicks -3.5 | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Indiana at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. This is undoubtedly a game the Knicks have had circled on their calendar since dropping an ugly 140-126 decision in Indiana back on December 30th. Since then, New York has gone 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that's more locked-in defensively than the Knicks right now. They enter Thursday's action having held 10 straight and 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Pacers obviously pose a stiff challenge as they can score with the best of them but I think the Knicks can make them uncomfortable here, noting New York has limited four straight and 15 of its last 18 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Knicks have been scoring in bunches lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in five of their last six contests. Indiana, meanwhile, has allowed 44 or more made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. Note that the Pacers are just 29-37 ATS in their last 66 games following a road loss and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 contests after an ATS win but SU loss on the road, as is the case here. The Knicks are 25-21 ATS in their last 46 contests as a home favorite of six points or less and 26-19 ATS in their last 45 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent. Take New York (8*). |
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01-31-24 | Arkansas v. Missouri -4.5 | 91-84 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Missouri minus the points over Arkansas at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. Missouri got off to a 7-2 start this season and gave Kansas all it could handle in Lawrence on December 9th. Unfortunately that loss to the Jayhawks kicked off a 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS slide. This is as good of a chance as any to end its seven-game losing streak as Mizzou hosts Arkansas on Wednesday. The Razorbacks are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS over their last seven contests. They did lose by 'only' six points at home against Kentucky on Saturday but that had more to do with the Wildcats having an off shooting day than anything else. While KenPom does have Arkansas ranking considerably higher than Missouri in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, I would flip those rankings based on recent results. Arkansas has allowed nine of its last 10 opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts. Of the Hogs last 12 opponents, 10 have knocked down 25 or more field goals with three of their last seven foes connecting on more than 30. While Missouri hasn't been all that explosive offensively, it has been fairly consistent, knocking down at least 23 field goals in 18 of 20 games this season. Arkansas has been held to 20 or fewer made field goals in three of its last four games alone. On the flip side, Missouri has held six of its last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that Arkansas is just 10-13 ATS in its last 23 lined road games and 7-12 ATS in its last 19 contests following a home loss in which it scored less than 60 points, as is the case here. Missouri is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 65 points or less in consecutive games. Take Missouri (8*). |
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01-31-24 | Magic v. Spurs OVER 227.5 | 108-98 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Magic offense is flashing right now, showing steady improvement in each of its last three games. It draws a mouth-watering matchup on Wednesday as the Spurs have been matador-like defensively allowing 47, 49, 48, 54, 38, 45 and 46 made field goals over their last seven contests. Orlando tweaked its starting five last time out and scored a whopping 77 first half points in an eventual 131-129 loss in Dallas. I do think the Magic are vulnerable defensively right now as they've allowed their last four opponents to knock down 45, 42, 41 and 43 field goals. That's not bad on the face of it but is concerning when you consider three of those opponents hoisted up 80 or fewer field goal attempts. The Spurs have been reasonably matchup-proof when it comes to pace, attempting more than 90 field goals in seven of their last 10 games. Offensively, San Antonio has quietly been on a roll, connecting on 42 or more field goals in seven straight games. Note that the 'over' is 23-17 in Orlando's last 40 games as a favorite and 35-20 in its last 55 contests following consecutive ATS victories. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 29-14 in the Spurs last 43 games as a home underdog of six points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following three straight 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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01-30-24 | Blue Jackets v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | 1-0 | Win | 102 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has cashed in the last five meetings in this series. That matches the longest such streak in the history of this series. It's happened twice previously and on both occasions the next meeting stayed 'under' the total. I expect a similar story to unfold here. Note that the 'under' is 13-11 in the Blue Jackets last 24 games following consecutive road losses. The 'under' is also 11-8 in the Blues last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here. Finally, the 'under' is 6-4 in the Blues last 10 games following four consecutive games that totalled seven goals or more. Take the under (8*). |
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01-30-24 | Oklahoma v. Kansas State -1.5 | 73-53 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Oklahoma at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Kansas State got blasted on the road against Houston on Saturday as it was stymied by the Cougars elite defense, knocking down just 19-of-47 field goals in a 74-52 loss. I expect the Wildcats to bounce back on Tuesday as they return home to face Oklahoma. Kansas State has lost two games in a row SU and three straight ATS. Note that it is 9-1 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons (this marks the first time it has lost three straight games ATS over that stretch). The Wildcats are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 60 points or less in their previous contest. Oklahoma is coming off consecutive losses and has allowed five of its last seven opponents to knock down 26 or more field goals. In stark contrast, Kansas State has held seven of its last eight foes to 22 or fewer made field goals. KenPom has the Wildcats ranked just seven spots above the Sooners in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency but I believe that's a little light. Offensively, Oklahoma is superior but certainly not by all that wide of a margin and home court is the great equalizer here. Note that the Sooners are just 9-14 ATS in their last 23 games as a road underdog. They haven't proven to be a great bounce-back team, going 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a home loss in-conference. Take Kansas State (8*). |
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01-30-24 | Jazz v. Knicks UNDER 231.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New York at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' is an incredible 13-2 in the Knicks last 15 games and I look for that trend to continue as they return home to host the Jazz on Tuesday. Utah got stomped by the Nets in Brooklyn last night. The Jazz are by no means playing good defensive basketball right now but I do think they get a bit of a reprieve in this back-to-back spot. Note that New York, while red hot off seven straight wins, has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in 16 of its last 18 games. It doesn't generally look to push the pace having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 15 straight games entering Tuesday's contest. On the flip side, the Knicks are as locked-in defensively as any team right now having held nine straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Jazz's last 14 games following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-1 in Utah's last seven contests after consecutive games totalling 245 points or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-19 in the Knicks last 45 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 7-4 in their last 11 contests after a road win by 20 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-30-24 | Pacers +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. There's nothing to fear when it comes to facing the Celtics right now as they've clearly been off their game in recent weeks, going 8-10 ATS over their last 18 games. They're in a tough back-to-back spot on Tuesday after staging a massive fourth quarter rally against the Pelicans to avoid a second straight defeat. Note that Boston has been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 11 games. On the flip side, it has allowed more than 40 made field goals in six straight contests with its last four opponents connecting on 43, 42, 45 and 46 field goals. The Pacers on the other hand have reeled off three straight wins and are heating up again offensively, knocking down 43, 53, 58 and 44 field goals over their last four games. They've also held five of their last seven foes to 44 or fewer made field goals - that's progress for this team defensively. The Celtics will be looking to avenge a 133-131 loss in Indiana back on January 8th but they check in just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 44-38 ATS in their last 82 games as a road underdog. Take Indiana (10*). |
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01-30-24 | South Carolina v. Tennessee UNDER 136.5 | Top | 63-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Tennessee at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. South Carolina enters this game having scored more than 70 points in three straight games - all victories in SEC play. It will be hard-pressed to reach that number on Tuesday, however, as it travels to Rocky Top to challenge Tennessee and it's elite defense. The Volunteers check in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Gamecocks will need to effectively shorten this game by relying on their methodical pace, noting they rank 348th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). South Carolina can hold its own defensively as well as it has limited four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Gamecocks had a brief two-game outburst but that was against two poor SEC defenses in Arkansas and Kentucky. Last time out they knocked down just 23 field goals in a win over Missouri and they've been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in five of their last seven contests. I mentioned Tennessee's elite defense, it has held 12 straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals and nine of its last 11 foes to 23 or less. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 in the Gamecocks last 12 games following three straight ATS victories, including 3-1 in that situation this season. The 'under' is 22-17 in the Vols last 39 games following an ATS loss and 6-3 in their last nine contests after posting three straight wins by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-29-24 | Houston v. Texas +5.5 | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas plus the points over Houston at 9 pm et on Monday. These two teams had much different outcomes on Saturday as Houston rolled to a 74-52 home win over Kansas State while Texas fell by a score of 84-72 at Big 12 newcomer BYU. I expect this in-state showdown to go down to the wire on Monday and will grab all the points I can get with the Longhorns. Note that Houston is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite of six points or less. The Cougars are also a miserable 3-9 ATS in their last 12 contests following a win by 20 points or more against a conference foe. Texas may not rank as highly as Houston in terms of offensive efficiency this season but there's no denying it has been ultra-consistent. The Longhorns have knocked down at least 24 field goals in all 20 games. They'll obviously be tested by Houston's incredible defense on Monday. By nature, Houston has a tendency to shorten proceedings as it checks in ranked 350th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). That generally favors the underdog. Note that Texas can play some defense too, noting it has held five straight opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. The Longhorns are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss against a conference opponent. They're also 8-6 ATS in their last 14 contests after giving up 80 points or more in their previous game. Take Texas (8*). |
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01-29-24 | Jazz v. Nets | 114-147 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn over Utah at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Jazz are 9-2 ATS over their last 11 games, scoring 120 or more points in all 11 of those contests. I think they'll be hard-pressed to reach that number on Monday, however, as they continue their road trip in Brooklyn. While the Utah offense is flying its defense leaves a lot to be desired. Note that the Jazz have allowed 48, 45, 60, 43 and 47 made field goals over their last five games. In stark contrast, the Nets have held eight straight and 10 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Note only that but Brooklyn has limited 10 of its last 13 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. While the Nets offense has connected on only 35 and 36 field goals over its last two games, keep in mind it got off only 77 and 74 field goal attempts. Prior to that it had hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in three straight games, knocking down 50, 44 and 42. It should enjoy a free-flowing environment here given Utah has allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of its last 14 contests. Note that the Jazz are just 10-11 ATS in their last 21 games following consecutive ATS victories as a favorite and 10-13 ATS in their last 23 contests after scoring 130 points or more in their previous game. The Nets are 27-22 ATS in their last 49 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including 6-4 ATS this season. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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01-29-24 | Clippers v. Cavs +2.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Clippers roll into this game on the heels of five straight wins, including a stunning rout of the Celtics in Boston on Saturday. The Cavaliers are also red hot, however, having won nine of their last 10 games and I look for them to give the Clips all they can handle on Monday. Note that Los Angeles, while known for its stout defense, has played a little looser lately, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in four straight games. Of Los Angeles' last eight opponents, six have managed to knock down more than 40 field goals. The Cavs don't generally play at a fast pace but have appeared comfortable doing so during their current run, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last six contests. They remain as locked-in defensively as any team in the league right now having held six of their last seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips are just 10-13 ATS in their last 23 games following an upset win and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests when that upset win came on the road. They're also a long-term 15-23 ATS in their last 38 games following five straight ATS wins. Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 contests following a double-digit upset win on the road, as is the case here. The Cavs are also a long-term 41-26 ATS in their last 67 games following a double-digit victory. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Detroit at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. The Lions have needed everything they had in the tank to get past the Rams and Buccaneers in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Now they hit the road for the first time in the postseason and I believe it's a case of being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they take on the 49ers in Santa Clara on Sunday. Detroit is dealing with a cluster of injuries on its offensive line with Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow both banged-up. Keep in mind, the Lions offense already takes a hit at the best of times on the road, QB Jared Goff in particular. The 49ers defense presents a nightmarish matchup for most opposing offenses and this is no different. Playing from behind isn't the Lions strength but that's a situation I expect them to be in for much of the evening on Sunday. That likely means more of standout rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, which doesn't seem like a negative on the face of it but veteran David Montgomery is the much better pass blocker and Goff will need all the help he can get against a ferocious 49ers defensive front. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy struggled mightily in the wet weather against the Packers last Saturday but should face no such difficulty with a flawless forecast in store this week. Purdy should be able to take the lid off the Lions leaky pass defense with WR Brandon Aiyuk. Whether or not WR Deebo Samuel can play isn't all that relevant as far as I'm concerned as the Niners can beat the Lions in several other ways, including with TE George Kittle who draws a smash spot against a defense that has had no success containing opposing TE's this season. RB Christian McCaffrey runs into a very tough matchup here but that's nothing new. He tends to exceed expectations on the regular in this type of contest. The Lions are just 14-20 ATS in their last 34 games following three straight wins. Meanwhile, the Niners are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a win but non-cover and 4-0 ATS in their last four contests after a victory by three points or less. Take San Francisco (8*). |
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01-28-24 | Suns v. Magic +2 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have lost consecutive games and are just 2-7 over their last nine contests as they've sunken into a bit of an offensive slump. The Suns might be just the opponent to bring them out of it on Sunday, however, noting that Phoenix has allowed 10 straight opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals (Orlando has connected on fewer than 40 field goals in nine straight contests) with each of its last seven foes getting off at least 89 field goal attempts. Defensively, the Magic continue to play well. Here at home they've limited the opposition to 39-of-84 shooting this season. They've held nine of their last 10 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Suns are just 10-12 ATS including 0-4 ATS this season when coming off a game in which they scored 130 or more points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Magic 21-17 ATS in their last 38 games following a loss by three points or less and a perfect 2-0 ATS this season following an upset defeat. Take Orlando (8*). |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Baltimore at 3 pm et on Sunday. While there are plenty of offensive stars on display in this matchup, headlined by the quarterback showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, I actually expect points to come at a premium on Sunday afternoon in Baltimore. I don't envision either team having a ton of success throwing the football. The Chiefs have done a tremendous job of containing mobile opposing quarterbacks over the years and job number one will be taking away Lamar Jackson's legs on Sunday. Of course Jackson is playing arguably the best football of his career right now so that's no easy task. I do think we'll see the Chiefs defense, which is relatively healthy considering the time of year, at least force the Ravens to go on long, methodical drives that may or may not end in 7's on the board. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense should feast on a Chiefs offense that has been gashed by injuries on the offensive line. Not only that but RB Isaiah Pacheco, who has been the team's unsung hero down the stretch, is playing on a bad toe and ankle. I would anticipate Kansas City using its short passing game and expect to see Patrick Mahomes flushed out of the pocket and forced to run the football on plenty of occasions on Sunday. Again, long, clock-eating drives could turn out to be the story of the game. Note that the 'under' is 8-1 in the Chiefs last nine games following a win by three points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following four straight victories, as is the case here. The Ravens have seen the 'under' go 10-6 in their last 16 games following a home win and a long-term 30-21 in their last 51 contests after a victory by 21 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-28-24 | Marist v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 | Top | 80-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday. While Marist rides a three-game 'under' streak into this matchup on Sunday, Canisius snapped a two-game 'under' streak with an 'over' result on Friday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair between these two MAAC squads on Sunday afternoon. Marist has dropped the cash in six of its last seven games and that's been more to do with its punchless offense than anything else. The Red Foxes check in ranked 337th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 321st in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. They've been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight contests. While Canisius is certainly no defensive juggernaut, it has held three straight and four of its last five opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Marist actually sits just outside the top-100 (106th) in adjusted defensive efficiency. Red Foxes' opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down. Marist has limited five straight and nine of its last 10 foes to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Marist allowed more than 24 made field goals. In fact, it has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 24 or less made field goals. The Golden Griffins offense did get loose on Friday but that was against one of the worst defensive teams not just in the MAAC but in the entire country in Manhattan. Prior to that contest, Canisius had been held to 26 or fewer made field goals in four straight games. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 29-18 in Marist's last 47 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The 'under' is also 18-15 in Canisius' last 33 contests following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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01-27-24 | Kings -1.5 v. Mavs | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Dallas at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. You have to figure the Kings were sitting back enjoying last night's incredible performance from Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic. Dallas narrowly escaped with a victory thanks to Doncic's 73-point explosion in Atlanta. Note that he played 44-of-48 minutes in that contest and now Dallas has to turn around and play its third game in four nights. The Kings went through a lull earlier this month, dropping four straight games but have since rebounded with two wins in a row. Their offense is certainly rounding back into form having knocked down 55, 46, 44, 43 and 48 field goals over their last five contests. The Mavs connected on 51 field goals (Doncic accounted for nearly half of them) in last night's victory but that marked the first time in eight games they made good on more than 44 field goals. Note that the road team has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series including a 129-113 Kings victory here in Dallas back in November. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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01-27-24 | Golden Knights v. Red Wings -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. Tough spot for the Golden Knights here as they play the second of back-to-back nights for the second time this week, on the road no less. Vegas is playing well having won four of its last five games but so is Detroit. The Red Wings check in winners of eight of their last 11 contests. I think it's good for teams to get in a bit of a rhythm at this time of year and Detroit should be locked-in right now having played every second night since the 17th with this marking its fourth straight home game. The Wings are 13-11 on home ice this season where they average 3.7 goals per game. While teams are often fade material off a shutout victory (which is the situation the Wings are in here), that hasn't necessarily been the case with Detroit. It is 6-4 in its last 10 games following a shutout victory and 20-14 in its last 34 contests after a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. Detroit enters this matchup owning a slight 5-4 edge in the all-time series between these two teams. Take Detroit (8*). |
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01-27-24 | Rangers -115 v. Senators | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rangers are slumping right now, losers of seven of their last 10 games. I fully expect them to shake off last night's lopsided home defeat against the Golden Knights as they make the trip to Ottawa to face the Senators on Saturday. This is a game the Blueshirts have likely had circled on their calendars as they've inexplicably dropped three straight matchups with the Sens. Note that they haven't lost four games in a row against Ottawa since way back in 2006-07. Despite their recent struggles, the Rangers remain a winning team on the road at 14-12 on the campaign, allowing just 2.8 goals per game along the way. That's more than we can say for the Sens at home as they've gone 10-13, yielding 3.5 goals per contest. Ottawa enters off a 3-2 overtime loss against the Bruins on Thursday. Note that the Sens are 12-19 in their last 31 games following a loss against a division opponent. In general, Ottawa hasn't been a good bounce-back team this season, going 11-14 following a loss. Take New York (10*). |
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01-27-24 | Kentucky v. Arkansas OVER 164 | Top | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kentucky and Arkansas at 6 pm et on Saturday. Arkansas has fallen into a serious shooting slump, connecting on 24 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games entering Saturday's matchup with Kentucky. The good news is, the Wildcats are an NBA team disguised in college basketball uniforms and can drag any opponent into a track meet on any given day. Kentucky has allowed 33, 31, 31 and 29 made field goals over its last four games. The problem for the Razorbacks here isn't likely whether they can score on the Wildcats but whether they can stop them. Kentucky will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after dropping a 79-62 decision at South Carolina earlier this week. Note that the Wildcats have connected on 30 or more field goals in 14 of 18 games this season. It's worth noting that the Hogs had knocked down at least 26 field goals in 10 of their first 13 games before falling into their recent funk. The 'over' is 22-11 in Kentucky's last 33 games following an 'under' result, as is the case here. The Wildcats have also posted a perfect 9-0 'over' mark in their last nine games following a road loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 7-3 in the Razorbacks last 10 games following consecutive defeats in-conference. The 'over' is also 6-1 in their last seven contests following a loss by 15 points or more including 2-0 the last two times they've come off a 20+ point setback. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-24 | Kansas State v. Houston UNDER 128.5 | Top | 52-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State was involved in a higher-scoring game than expected against Iowa State on Wednesday. It had little to do with the pace of that contest, however, as the Wildcats hoisted up only 49 field goal attempts while the Cyclones countered with 51. Both teams knocked down an identical 22 field goals. That's about par for the course when it comes to Kansas State. It has limited six of its last seven opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. While Houston boasts its share of offensive talent, the Cougars are still at team that hangs their hat on their defense. Houston checks in having held 18 of 19 opponents to 22 made field goals or fewer. In fact, the Cougars are just one game removed from limiting Central Florida to a ridiculous seven made field goals. Also note that Houston ranks 350th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The Cougars will take what the opposition gives them on offense but in this case that's not likely to be much against a Wildcats squad that is sure to be in a foul mood following Wednesday's loss. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 59-49 with Kansas State coming off a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-15 in the Cougars last 38 games following an 'over' result, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-26-24 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 213 | 106-107 | Push | 0 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams have played some old school basketball lately with the Magic having scored fewer than 90 points in four of their last eight games (they also held three opponents to less than 100) and the Grizzlies failing to eclipse the century mark in two of their last six contests (they gave up only 96 points last time out). Orlando has had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 78 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last three games. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they connected on 40 or more field goals. The Grizzlies have been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six contests. Like the Magic, they've also been playing at a slow pace, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games. Given just how many key contributors the Grizzlies are missing right now, slow-playing it has been their best strategy and they've limited eight of their last 12 opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 17-8 in the Magic's last 25 games following a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have seen the 'under' go 4-1 in their last five contests following consecutive upset victories, which is also the situation they're in on Friday. Take the under (8*). |
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01-26-24 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 234.5 | 127-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Raptors have seen each of their last five games stay 'under' the total and I'm banking on that trend continuing for at least one more contest as they host the red hot Clippers on Friday. The Clippers will take the floor for the first time since Tuesday's 127-116 win over the Lakers. Note that the 'under' is 22-7 in their last 29 games played on at least two days' rest. Los Angeles enters this game on a scoring tear having produced 125 points or more in three straight games. That's happened only once previously this season and on that occasion its next game cruised 'under' the total, reaching just 214 points in Minnesota. The 'under' is 8-5 in the Clips last 13 games after scoring 125+ points in three straight contests. For their part, the Raptors have seen the 'under' go 14-6 in their last 20 contests following three straight ATS losses. The 'under' is also 14-11 in their last 25 games after an upset loss at home, as is the case here. While the 'over' did cash in the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season (in January), we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since 2016-17. Take the under (8*). |
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01-26-24 | Golden Knights v. Rangers -150 | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Vegas at 7:05 pm et on Friday. As if the Rangers weren't already in a foul enough mood following an upset loss in San Jose two nights ago to wrap up a disappointing 1-3 western road swing, they'll return home to host the Golden Knights on Friday - a team that drummed them 5-1 during that aforementioned road trip. I expect New York to exact some payback on Friday. A return home should be welcome for the Rangers as they're 15-6 at Madison Square Garden this season, allowing just 3.0 goals per contest. The Golden Knights, while coming off a win on Long Island two nights ago, are still just 10-13 on the road, where they've allowed 3.3 goals per game. Note that Vegas is just 4-7 when coming off a one-goal victory this season, as is the case here. The Rangers are 11-3 in their last 14 games when seeking revenge for a loss by four goals or more against an opponent. When that loss came on the road, they're a perfect 8-0 in their last eight tries. Finally, we'll note that New York is 31-19 in its last 50 games following a road loss. Take New York (8*). |
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01-26-24 | Ohio +3.5 v. Kent State | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Kent State at 6:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Bobcats as they look to bounce back following a home loss to Akron last time out. Kent State is fresh off a minor upset win at Bowling Green earlier this week but checks in having lost consecutive games at home. Note that the Golden Flashes have won four straight meetings in this series. That's worth mentioning as they haven't won five in a row against the Bobcats since 2009-11. The last time they managed to win four straight games in this series was back in 2014-16 and they went on to lose the next two meetings. While Ohio doesn't rate out all that highly in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season it has played better in that regard lately. The Bobcats have held four straight and nine of their last 11 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Kent State on the other hand has given up 28 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests. Offensively, the two teams have been almost mirror images however you could argue that Ohio has been the more consistent team lately in that regard, connecting on 26 or more field goals in six of its last seven games (Kent State made good on 21, 32, 21 and 31 field goals over its last four contests). Ohio is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 games following a road loss against a conference opponent. The Bobcats are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests after being held to 60 points or less in their previous game. Meanwhile, Kent State is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games following a road win in which it scored 85 points or more, as is the case here. The Golden Flashes are also just 1-5 ATS following an ATS victory this season. Take Ohio (10*). |
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01-25-24 | Kings -2 v. Warriors | Top | 134-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Warriors here as they play the second of back-to-backs following an emotional return to the floor (following the death of their assistant coach last week) in a rout of the Hawks last night. Sacramento comes in rested following consecutive off days, which came on the heels of a much-needed 122-107 win over those same Hawks on Monday. That victory snapped a four-game losing skid. Note that Sacramento is still 5-2 ATS over its last seven contests as the schedule has certainly gotten tougher lately. This marks the start of a key seven-game road trip for the Kings. Note that they check in 26-17 ATS in their last 43 games as a road favorite and 18-10 ATS in their last 28 contests after losing four of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here. They're also just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 contests following a win by 20 points or more. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-25-24 | Devils +143 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on New Jersey over Carolina at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. This is a game the Devils have undoubtedly had circled on their calendar since bowing out in five games against the Hurricanes in last year's playoffs. New Jersey catches Carolina in a favorable spot as the Devils check in off two full days of rest while the Hurricanes just posted a big win in Boston last night (it was an emotionally-draining game as the Canes blew a 2-0 third period lead before winning 3-2). Note that New Jersey has been at its best on the road this season going 14-8 and averaging 3.6 goals per game. While the Devils are missing a number of key contributors right now, Monday's wild 6-5 overtime win over the Golden Knights surely gave them a boost of confidence heading into this brief two-game road trip. Note that New Jersey is 17-6 in its last 23 games following a one-goal victory at home. The Canes are just 5-7 when coming off a road win and 7-11 when playing their fourth game in seven days this season. Take New Jersey (10*). |
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01-25-24 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Quinnipiac UNDER 152 | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mount St. Mary's and Quinnipiac at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Thursday. Mount St. Mary's ran into a red hot Niagara squad on Sunday, falling by a score of 82-71. Note that the Mountaineers have seen the 'under' go 10-2 in their last 12 games following an upset loss. Mount St. Mary's has allowed just one of its 18 opponents to knock down more than 30 field goals this season. While that's a reasonably high number of field goals to use as a benchmark, it works in the context of this game with the total set in the low-150's at the time of writing. Quinnipiac has reeled off five straight victories going 4-0-1 ATS over that stretch. It actually doesn't run all that efficient of an offense but thrives on pushing the pace, something I'm not sure it will be able to do as much as it would like on Thursday (Mount St. Mary's has held opponents to just 57 field goal attempts per game on the road this season). Much of the Bobcats success has come as a result of a rather soft schedule, noting they've faced only the 358th most difficult schedule (out of 362 Division-I teams) in the country according to KenPom. The 'under' is 9-4 in Quinnipiac's last 13 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-2 in the Bobcats last eight contests when coming off a home win in which they scored 85 points or more. Take the under (8*). |
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01-25-24 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 224 | Top | 143-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off a string of relatively low-scoring contests. Boston enters riding a five-game 'under' streak while Miami has seen each of its last seven contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Heat continue to limit opposing offenses although part of that has been as a result of the opposition playing with a considerable lead and controlling the tempo. Boston has been fairly matchup-proof in that regard. The Celtics prefer to push the pace, having hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in 17 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, Boston's opponents have certainly gotten their fair share of scoring opportunities as the C's have allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 15 games. Only twice over the last three seasons has Boston produced five straight 'under' results and on both previous occasions, the 'over' cashed in the next game. Also note that the 'over' is 39-34 in the Celtics last 73 games following a road win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-32 in the Heat's last 72 contests when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 3-1 in Miami's last four games after four straight losses. Take the over (10*). |
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01-24-24 | Capitals v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've become accustomed to seeing high-scoring games involving the Avalanche lately. In fact, each of their last five and nine of their last 10 games overall have totalled at least seven goals which is north of the number we're working with on Wednesday. I do think there's a 'catalyst for change' at work here, however, as the Avs return home from a long road trip to host the Capitals, who played in Minnesota last night. Note that Washington is allowing a respectable 3.1 goals per game on the road this season. The problem has been its offense, or lack thereof, as it has produced just 2.3 goals per contest away from home. Colorado, while known for its offensive prowess, has been stout defensively here at home, yielding just 2.9 goals per game this season. Note that this series has produced three straight 'under' results and a 1-4 o/u mark in the last five meetings. The 'under' is 10-5 with the Caps playing on the road with the total set at 6.0 or higher this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 in the Avs last 12 games after allowing four goals or more in three straight contests, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 161-132 with Colorado coming off a road win in which it scored four goals or more. Take the under (8*). |
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01-24-24 | Kansas State v. Iowa State UNDER 134.5 | 67-78 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Iowa State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Wednesday. Kansas State ranks 261st in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, while also checking in sporting the 21st best defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency). The Wildcats have held an incredible five of their last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. The Cyclones are a good but certainly not great offensive team. They did knock down 29-of-62 field goal attempts in an upset win at TCU last time out but that represented a high-water mark over their last five contests. They've connected on 27 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. On the flip side, Iowa State has been even better than Kansas State defensively, ranking an impressive third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. It has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the opposition has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down against the Cylones, hoisting up 51 or fewer field goal attempts in six of the last eight games against them. Kansas State doesn't figure to push all that hard in that department, attempting 54 or fewer field goals in four straight and six of its last seven games heading in. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in the Wildcats last 12 games following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is an identical 8-4 in Iowa State's last 12 contests following consecutive 'over' results and 12-7 in its last 19 games following an upset victory. Take the under (8*). |
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01-24-24 | Mississippi State +4 v. Florida | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Florida at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. Mississippi State checks in 0-2-1 ATS over its last three games but I look for it to break out of that slump as it travels to Gainesville to face the Gators on Wednesday. The Bulldogs are an underdog we like to back as they have the ability to consistently erase opponents' possessions and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that they've limited the opposition to 22-of-56 shooting on average on the road this season. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals and that's notable as Florida is just 1-5 ATS when knocking down 27 or fewer field goals this season. The Gators check in off a double-digit win at Missouri last time out, successfully rebounding from a blowout loss in Tennessee four nights earlier. Florida has been as Jekyll-and-Hyde as it gets, particularly on defense as it has given up more than 30 made field goals in three of its last five contests. It has had no desire to slow the pace, certainly not at home where it has yielded an average of 65 field goal attempts per game to the opposition. Noting the Bulldogs have knocked down 25 or more field goals in six straight and nine of their last 10 games overall, I look for them to take full advantage here. The underdog has gone 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. The Bulldogs are 20-15 ATS in their last 35 road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Meanwhile, the Gators are just 13-17 ATS in their last 30 contests following a double-digit victory. Take Mississippi State (10*). |
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01-24-24 | Hornets +3 v. Pistons | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. It may seem a little strange to be throwing around a term like 'revenge' when it comes to two teams that have combined for only four wins this season. I believe it works in this particular situation, however. Charlotte actually opened the campaign with an upset win at home against Atlanta. It couldn't build on that victory though as it fell as a 4.5-point favorite at home against the lowly Pistons two nights later. Note that the road team is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Charlotte dealt Terry Rozier to the Heat in exchange for Kyle Lowry and a first round draft pick yesterday. It was the right move. Rozier certainly adds a lot offensively, particularly as a facilitator but he has become a liability defensively this season. Consider it a case of addition by subtraction at that end of the floor. Note that the Hornets have actually held up reasonably well defensively in recent weeks. They've limited seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They also enter this contest having held four of their last five foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. It's been a much different story for the Pistons. They've allowed six of their last seven opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they limited an opponent to fewer than 41 made field goals. Note that Charlotte is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite. This season, the Hornets are 6-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Detroit on the other hand is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. It is also a long-term 8-18 ATS in its last 26 contests when playing at home with the total set at 230 points or higher, as is the case here. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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01-23-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 229.5 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Lebron James is expected to miss Tuesday's game for the Lakers as they try to secure a third straight win over the rival Clippers this season. While the Lakers have found recent success it hasn't been on the strength of their defensive play. They've allowed eight straight opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes connecting on at least 42 field goals. The Clippers figure to push them here, noting Los Angeles has knocked down 47 or more field goals in four of its last six contests. On the flip side, despite generally limiting the tempo of their opposition, the Clippers have allowed four of their last five opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. This will undoubtedly be a game the Clips have circled on their calendar not only due to the fact that they've dropped both previous meetings this season but also after they felt they let the Lakers off the hook in the most recent matchup on January 7th. In that contest, the Clips hoisted up 91 field goal attempts but connected on only 36 of them. Incredibly, that's one of only two times they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in their last 25 contests. Take the over (10*). |
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01-23-24 | Blues v. Flames -160 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -160 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Calgary over St. Louis at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Flames are off to a disappointing 1-2 start to their current homestand but I look for them to bounce back as they host the Blues on Tuesday. St. Louis took advantage of a quick revenge spot against the Capitals, skating to a 3-0 victory on Saturday after dropping a 5-2 decision in Washington two nights earlier. The Blues continue to display a strong home-road dichotomy noting they're just 8-13 away form home this season where they average a miserable 2.3 goals per contest. The Flames are 11-10 on home ice, limiting opponents to just 2.9 goals per game. Note that the Blues are just 1-4 in their last five games following a shutout win at home and 8-13 in 21 contests after a victory this season. The Flames check in 13-7 in their last 20 games following a home loss by two goals or more, as is the case here. They're also 22-19 in their last 41 contests after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. Take Calgary (10*). |
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01-23-24 | Boston College +5.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Virginia Tech at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Like clockwork, Boston College has delivered five straight outright victories as an underdog in this series, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. While I'm not calling for an outright win on Tuesday, I do expect the Eagles to once again hang tough against the Hokies in Blacksburg. Note that Boston College has dropped the cash in four straight games, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is fresh off an 84-78 upset win at N.C. State on Saturday. We have seen the Hokies offense sag at times since the beginning of ACC play, knocking down 26 or fewer field goals in four of six games. Also note that Virginia Tech plays at a rather methodical pace, hoisting up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in each of its last 11 and 16 of 18 games overall this season. That leaves little margin for error when you're laying a considerable number of points as the Hokies are on Tuesday. On the flip side, we've seen Virginia Tech's opposition get some good looks, connecting on 30, 28, 28, 27, 25 and 26 field goals in its last six contests. Boston College has run into a bit of a shooting slump, knocking down only 21 and 19 field goals in its last two games. Note that prior to that, the Eagles had made good on an impressive 30 or more field goals in six of their previous eight contests. Defensively, we've actually seen some improvement from Boston College lately as it has limited three of its last four opponents to 25 of fewer made field goals. Note that the Eagles are 17-12 ATS in their last 29 games following a loss against a conference opponent. They're also 13-7 ATS in their last 20 contests after losing four games in a row ATS. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is 15-23 ATS in its last 38 games following an upset win away from home and 23-26 ATS in its last 49 contests as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Boston College (10*). |
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01-22-24 | Bulls v. Suns OVER 229 | 113-115 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Suns have delivered three straight 'under' results following last night's 117-110 win over the Pacers. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however, as they host the Bulls. Chicago is playing as well offensively as it has all season, knocking down 46 or more field goals in four of its last five games. Also note that Chicago has been pushing the pace a little more than we're accustomed to seeing, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in five of its last seven contests. While it has also been playing well defensively it will face a tough test on Monday as Phoenix has connected on 46 or more field goals in five of its last seven contests and has made good on 49, 47 and 46 field goals in the last three meetings in this series here in the desert. Defensively, the Suns have been good but not great lately, yielding 40+ made field goals to the opposition in seven straight and 13 of their last 15 contests. Note that the 'over' is a long-term 49-24 in the Bulls last 73 games against Western Conference opponents. The 'over' is also 20-16 in their last 36 contests after giving up 100 points or less in their previous game, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 11-7 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result this season and 37-26 in their last 63 contests at home with the total set between 220 and 229.5, which is the situation at the time of writing. Take the over (8*). |
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01-22-24 | Cincinnati v. Kansas -7 | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Cincinnati at 9 pm et on Monday. Kansas was stunned as a double-digit road favorite against West Virginia on Saturday but I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back on as they return home to face Cincinnati on Monday. That loss to the Mountaineers doesn't change the fact that Kansas is an offensive juggernaut having knocked down 31, 32, 24, 29, 36 and 32 field goals over its last six games. The Jayhawks have held four straight opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. West Virginia quite simply shot the lights out against them on Saturday. It happens. Cincinnati is finding the Big 12 about as difficult as expected having dropped three of its last four games. Since the start of conference play, the Bearcats have been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in three of five games. Note that Cincinnati is just 33-40 ATS in its last 73 games following an upset loss in-conference, as is the case here. Kansas checks in a long-term 41-29 ATS off a road loss in Big 12 play. It's easy to think the sky is falling in Lawrence following a loss like the Jayhawks suffered on Saturday. That's simply not the case, however, as Kansas is 15-3 on the campaign despite facing the 26th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom. Take Kansas (10*). |
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01-22-24 | Cavs -1 v. Magic | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Cavaliers got off to a difficult start this season but they've since turned it around, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS over their last 15 games. Perhaps no team is as locked-in defensively as Cleveland right now as it has held four straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and an incredible 11 straight foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Orlando delivered a blowout win over Miami last night. The Magic aren't exactly setting the world on fire offensively right now as they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in seven straight games. In fact, they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 14 straight contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs have connected on 43 or more field goals in six of their last nine games including 49 or more three times over that stretch. Note that Cleveland is 40-25 ATS in its last 65 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Cavs are also a long-term 48-43 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 100 or more points. Orlando is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 contests following a win over a division opponent and 13-17 ATS in its last 30 contests after a double-digit victory. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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01-22-24 | Golden Knights v. Devils -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Jersey over Vegas at 7:05 pm et on Monday. These two teams had much different results on Saturday as Vegas skated to a 3-2 win over Pittsburgh at home while New Jersey suffered a lopsided 6-2 defeat against a hungry Dallas squad in a tough back-to-back spot off a win in Columbus the night earlier. Here, I look for the Devils to bounce back. Note that Vegas is 0-4 in its last four games following three straight home wins, as is the case here. New Jersey is 4-2 in six games following a contest in which it allowed six or more goals this season. The Devils are also a long-term 129-114 when coming off a home loss by two goals or more. The favorite has gone 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this series. Take New Jersey (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Rangers -210 v. Ducks | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Anaheim at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. |
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01-21-24 | Lightning v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. The Lightning are coming off a relatively low-scoring victory in Buffalo yesterday afternoon. I expect a much different story to unfold as they make the short trip to the Motor City to face the Red Wings on Sunday. Note that this will be the second matchup between these two teams this season with Detroit having skated to a 6-4 win on home ice back in October. The 'over' is 27-19 in Tampa Bay's last 46 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-25 in the Red Wings last 74 contests following a loss by two goals or more, as is the case here. The 'over' is also a long-term 52-37 with Detroit coming off an 'under' result, which is also the situation on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Heat v. Magic UNDER 215.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Orlando at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. If the Magic are going to shake out of their extended funk it's likely going to have to come on the strength of their defense. They've clearly lost their mojo offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. You would have to go back 14 games to find the last time they connected on more than 44 field goals. The good news is, Orlando continues to play tough defense having held seven straight opponents to 43 or fewer field goals. Miami is in a similar situation as it has connected on 41 or fewer field goals in an incredible 11 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. Also in a similar vein to the Magic, the Heat have held four of their last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 21-11 in Orlando's last 32 games following a double-digit home loss, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 11-4 in the Magic's last 15 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation against the Heat on Sunday. Miami has seen the 'under' go 6-2 in its last eight games following an upset loss against a divisional opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 49 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 3 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout potential. The same thing could have been said for the Lions matchup with the Rams last week but the scoring fizzled in the second half following a blazing hot start from the two offenses. Here, I expect both teams to score early and often. The Buccaneers draw a favorable matchup from an offensive standpoint but a tough one defensively. QB Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his NFL career right now and were it not for a couple of drops on potential big plays to veteran WR Mike Evans last Monday, Tampa Bay probably would have approached 40 points against what was once considered an elite Eagles defense. Here, the Bucs draw a Lions defense that can't stop the pass. Yes, Detroit has snuffed out opposing ground attacks but that's not really what Tampa Bay is all about right now. We've already seen the Bucs offense thrive in previous indoor games this season, scoring 20 points in Minnesota, 26 in New Orleans, 37 in Houston, 20 in Indianapolis and 29 in Atlanta. QB Jared Goff and the Lions explosive offense should continue to cook in this plus matchup on Sunday. The Bucs will do what they do defensively and that involves plenty of blitzing. Goff should eat them up with quick passes, noting that the Lions possess a rock solid offensive line and one of the best blocking running backs in football in David Montgomery. It's a pick your poison type of situation for the Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs will have to hope their offense can keep pace all afternoon long. Note that the 'over' is 7-2 in Tampa Bay's last nine road games as an underdog of seven points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'over' is certainly flashing for the Lions noting that the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 in their last five games following a win by three points or less, 19-11 in their last 30 contests played indoors and a long-term 122-103 when coming off an 'under' result. Take the over (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Fairfield v. Manhattan +7.5 | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Manhattan plus the points over Fairfield at 2 pm et on Sunday. While Fairfield is coming off a hard-fought nine-point home win over St. Peter's on Friday, Manhattan has been idle since last Sunday, when it suffered its eighth straight defeat. I look for the Jaspers to give the Stags all they can handle in this spot, noting Manhattan has gone 30-24 ATS in its last 54 games as an underdog and 25-22 ATS in its last 47 contests following a double-digit home loss. While Fairfield's offense has been humming it has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 30, 28, 26, 23, 34, 26 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Manhattan has employed a similar matador-like defense but it isn't the team laying all the points in this spot. Fairfield is 9-13 ATS in its last 22 games played on one day or less of rest and 2-7 ATS in its last nine contests following a home win over a conference opponent. Additionally, the Stags are a long-term 22-29 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games. Also note that the underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take Manhattan (10*). |
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01-20-24 | Thunder v. Wolves -2.5 | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Thunder were involved in a barn-burner in Utah on Thursday, the Timberwolves were cruising to a comfortable win at home against the undermanned Grizzlies. I think it's advantage Minnesota in this spot as it looks to exact revenge for a 129-106 loss suffered in Oklahoma City on Boxing Day. Oklahoma City checks in having allowed 44, 47 and 43 made field goals in its first three games on its current four-game road trip. We know what the Thunder are capable of offensively but they run into a tough matchup here, noting that the Timberwolves have held opponents to an average of just 38 made field goals per game at home this season and have limited five of their last six foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. While the Thunder will be looking ahead to a couple of much needed days off and a return home, the Timberwolves will stay at home as they wrap up their three-game homestand with a game against the Hornets on Monday. Note that Oklahoma City is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games following a road win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Minnesota is a long-term 51-33 ATS in its last 84 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 or more points. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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01-20-24 | Capitals v. Blues -118 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Washington at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Blues aren’t really going anywhere this season, mired in the middle of the pack as they continue in no man’s land between being competitive and a complete rebuild. I do like the spot for them on Saturday, however, as they get a quick revenge game following a 5-2 loss in Washington on Thursday. That marked St. Louis’ third straight loss. This is the spot for it to reverse course before heading to western Canada for a road trip. The Blues remain a winning team on home ice this season while the Capitals have admittedly played better lately but still average just 2.4 goals per game on the road. I don’t think that cuts it in this matchup on Saturday. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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01-20-24 | Georgia +12 v. Kentucky | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia plus the points over Kentucky at 6 pm et on Saturday. I'm not buying what the betting marketplace is selling when it comes to Kentucky. The Wildcats are coming off a rout of Mississippi State on Wednesday as they quite simply shot the lights out and also enjoyed a considerable advantage at the free throw line. Still, the Wildcats defense continues to struggle. Kentucky has allowed 26 or more made field goals in six straight games and 25 or more in 12 contests in a row. Georgia got off to a miserable start this season but has since turned things around, going 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS over its last 12 games. The Bulldogs have limited four of their last six opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. We'll confidently fade the Wildcats knowing they've gone 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games following a home win in which they scored 85 points or more, as is the case here. Georgia is 6-3 ATS in its last nine contests following an upset win, which is also the situation on Saturday. Take Georgia (8*). |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 43.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped considerably since opening in part due to weather concerns with cold temperatures and potentially gusting winds playing a factor. I'm not overly concerned. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a bit of a stinker as Baltimore rolled to a 25-9 victory. Needless to say, the Texans are a much different team now than they were then (that previous matchup came in Week 1). Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is the real deal. I like the way this Texans offense has evolved over the course of the season. As good as the Ravens defense is, it is by no means perfect. Baltimore has actually allowed 4.5 yards per rush this season. Going back to mid-October, the Ravens were torched for 120+ rushing yards in eight of their last 12 games. There's undoubtedly a path forward for the Texans offense here and I'm confident we'll see them play loose. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is defensive-minded without question but I like the way he let the offense cook down the stretch and certainly in last week's playoff opener against Cleveland. Note that Houston has scored 20+ points in nine of its last 11 games, only failing to reach that number in a game where Stroud suffered a concussion and then when he missed the next week. Of note, Baltimore will be without top CB Marlon Humphrey for this game, easing the matchup for Texans breakout WR Nico Collins as well. Enough about the Texans, let's talk about the Ravens electric offense. I don't think Houston is going to have many answers against a well-rested Baltimore offense. The Texans haven't performed particularly well against the pass, in fact they've been downright awful in that regard at times. They've also struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks on the ground, yielding seven rushing touchdowns over the course of the season. Everything is on the table for the Baltimore offense here and I don't expect it to take its foot off the gas pedal for one moment in this game. Note that the 'over' is 23-15 in the Texans last 38 games when seeking revenge for a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent. When that previous blowout loss came on the road the 'over' has gone 15-7 in their last 22 contests. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-3 in the Ravens last nine games following a loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I don't think it can be understated just how well the Ravens were playing prior to resting their starters in Week 18 against Pittsburgh (they lost that game 17-10). They had won six straight games heading into that contest, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. The wins were all impressive including a 37-31 victory over the Rams in a rainstorm in Baltimore, a 33-19 rout of the 49ers in Santa Clara and a 56-19 dismantling of the Dolphins at home. I love what the Texans have done this season. They're undoubtedly a team on the rise and C.J. Stroud is already being talked about as a top-five quarterback in the league (rightfully so). They're running into an extremely difficult matchup here, however. The Ravens aren't the type of team to take their foot off the gas and they have favorable matchups all over the field on offense. Not only has Houston struggled to defend the pass this season but it has had a miserable time containing running quarterbacks, having allowed a whopping seven rushing touchdowns to opposing signal-callers. Derek Stingley Jr. erased Amari Cooper in last week's blowout win over the Browns but he'll be hard-pressed to do so against anyone particular in the Ravens multi-pronged aerial attack on Saturday. With TE Mark Andrews trending toward playing trouble abounds for the second level of the Texans defense. Even if Andrews can't go, TE Isaiah Likely figures to go off. Note that Houston is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an upset victory, as is the case here. In fact, the Texans are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 contests following an outright win as a home underdog. They're also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games following three straight ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss against a division opponent. They're also 35-27 ATS in their last 62 contests following a home loss. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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01-19-24 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not buying the high posted total in this matchup as the Suns and Pelicans both come in rested in advance of Friday's matchup in New Orleans. Note that the Suns have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in each of their last 10 games. On the flip side, they've limited 14 of their last 15 opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. Of course, that's a reasonably high number of field goals to knock down in a game but not when we're dealing with a total approaching 240 points. The Pelicans have proven to be elite defensively this season. They enter Friday's contest having held an incredible 12 of their last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. That's no fluke. You would have to go back six games to find the last time a New Orleans opponent managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in four straight games. Note that the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. That's the longest streak since 2019-20. That previous 'over' streak ended at five games as the next meeting totalled just 197 points. Take the under (8*). |
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01-19-24 | Nuggets +6 v. Celtics | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Celtics are an incredible 20-0 at home this season but I do think the Nuggets are poised to give them a run on Friday at TD Garden. Boston is coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS. Note that the Celtics are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 games following consecutive ATS victories in a favorite role and 3-6 ATS in their last nine contests when coming off three straight covers as a fave, as is the case here. Boston is also 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games after holding consecutive opponents to 100 points or less, which is also the situation here. Denver had virtually all hands on deck for Tuesday's game in Philadelphia but ultimately fell by a 126-121 score. Having had a couple of days off to chew on that loss, I look for the Nuggets to bounce back on Friday. Note that Denver is 24-15 ATS in its last 39 contests after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS, as is the case here. The Nuggets check in red hot offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in five of their last six games. They figure to be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a Celtics squad that has allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 12 straight games. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-19-24 | 76ers v. Magic +5.5 | 124-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers have owned the Magic in recent years but I like the way this spot sets up for Orlando at home on Friday. The Magic are admittedly in a bit of an offensive funk right now but that will happen when you go on a road trip that includes stops in Miami, Oklahoma City, New York and Atlanta (I'm not saying the Hawks are an elite defensive team but they are tough at home). I do think the Magic are catching the 76ers at the right time as Philadelphia has looked beatable defensively in recent games, allowing 43, 46, 48, 32, 44 and 45 made field goals over its last six contests. On the flip side, the 76ers have been held to 43 or fewer made field goals themselves in seven of their last eight games. Orlando should get a boost from returning home and it's worth noting that it has held opponents to an average of just 39 made field goals per game on this floor. You would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Magic allowed an opponent to knock down more than 43 field goals. Note that Philadelphia is a long-term 29-32 ATS in its last 61 games following three consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here. The Magic are 71-57 ATS in their last 128 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 21-16 ATS in their last 37 contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Orlando (8*). |
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01-19-24 | Devils -160 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New Jersey over Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Devils on Friday as they look to respond following Wednesday's 3-2 home loss against the Canadiens. Columbus has been idle since Monday which isn't necessarily a good thing when you consider it is coming off a stunning win over the Canucks. The Blue Jackets probably would have liked to get right back on the ice after that victory but instead had to sit idle for three full days. Note that Columbus is still just 9-16 on home ice this season. Meanwhile, New Jersey has continued a trend that began last season, playing better hockey on the road than at home, going 13-8 in enemy territory. The Devils check in having gone 11-7 when coming off consecutive games in which they allowed three or more goals this season, as is the case here. Columbus is just 1-6 when coming off a home win in which it scored at least four goals. The favorite has gone 8-1 in the last nine meetings in this series. Take New Jersey (10*). |
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01-19-24 | St. Peter's v. Fairfield UNDER 135.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and Fairfield at 7 pm et on Friday. Fairfield is riding a six-game 'over' streak entering Friday's matchup against St. Peter's. I believe that streak is in serious jeopardy here, however, as the Peacocks roll into town sporting a top-100 defense (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings) but an exceptionally slow (and reasonably weak) offense. Fairfield's defensive play has been subpar for most of the season but I question whether St. Peter's can take full advantage. The Peacocks did score 81 points in their most recent game but that was against a lifeless Manhattan squad. Note that St. Peter's has been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight games. On the flip side, it has incredibly held all 14 opponents it has faced this season to 24 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 18-11 in the Peacocks last 29 games following an in-conference victory. The 'under' is also 13-8 in their last 21 contests following a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in the Stags last 17 games following a double-digit win in an underdog role, as is the case here. When that win came on the road, the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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01-18-24 | Washington State +2.5 v. Stanford | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Stanford at 11 pm et on Thursday. I have little faith in Stanford's matador-like defense, noting that the Cardinal have allowed 27 or more made field goals in six of their last seven games and have yielded 61 or more field goal attempts to the opposition in eight of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Washington State checks in having held 12 of its last 15 opponents to 61 or fewer field goal attempts. The Cougars rank 54th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. While Stanford's pace will certainly test Washington State, I don't think it's anything the Cougars haven't seen before. After all, they just upset Arizona (which ranks ninth in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom) last Saturday. Note that Washington State is 19-12 ATS in its last 31 games following a win in-conference as an underdog of six points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Stanford is just 1-5 ATS in its last six contests off consecutive victories in-conference. Take Washington State (8*). |
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01-18-24 | Rangers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series, all the way to December of 2018 to find the last time we saw an 'over' result. I expect goals to come at a premium on Thursday as well. New York checks in off consecutive wins, rebounding from its recent four-game losing streak. Note that the Rangers have gone 13-9 on the road this season, where they've allowed just 2.8 goals per game. The 'under' is 32-26 in their last 58 contests following a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. While the Golden Knights have struggled to find the win column lately they have continued to play tough defensive hockey. Note that Vegas has held the opposition to just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. The Knights will need to continue to lean on that defense with a number of key contributors sidelined, including Jack Eichel. Note that the 'under' is 27-19 in Vegas' last 46 games following a home win in which it scored four goals or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-18-24 | Bulls -2.5 v. Raptors | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors played with plenty of emotion on the same day Pascal Siakam was dealt to the Pacers, routing the Heat to snap a four-game losing streak. Now they're in a tough back-to-back spot, however, as they host a rested Bulls squad that should be in a foul mood following Monday's no-show in Cleveland. That blowout loss in Cleveland brought an end to Chicago's streak of five straight games knocking down 40 or more field goals. It wasn't all bad news, however, as the Bulls did hold Cleveland to just 39 made field goals - their second straight contest limiting the opposition to fewer than 40 made field goals. Note that Chicago checks in 33-27 ATS in its last 60 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Chicago (8*). |
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01-18-24 | Blues +102 v. Capitals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. While Washington may own the slightly better overall record, I'm not convinced it is the better team in this matchup. Noting that the underdog has gone 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in this series, we'll confidently back the well-rested Blues as they head to Washington on Thursday. St. Louis hasn't played since Sunday, when it dropped its second straight game on home ice against the Flyers. On Monday, we saw the Capitals skate to a 2-0 victory at home against the Ducks. Note that Washington is just 6-9 in its last 15 games following a shutout win. It is also a long-term 26-34 in its last 60 contests after posting a win by two goals or more. Meanwhile, St. Louis checks in 23-19 in its last 42 games after giving up four goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. The Blues are also 5-1 this season when coming off a home loss by two goals or more. Take St. Louis (8*). |
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01-17-24 | Nets -6 v. Blazers | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Trail Blazers stunned the Nets in Brooklyn last week, winning 134-127 as 9.5-point underdogs. I look for the Nets to answer back as the scene shifts to the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Brooklyn should be able to put plenty of pressure on the Blazers sagging defense here. The Nets have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. Portland, meanwhile, has allowed 44 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests and hasn't really had the ability to dictate the tempo of its opposition this season. While Brooklyn has lost three straight games and eight of its last nine overall, it has at least shown signs of righting the ship defensively. The Nets have held six of their last seven opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and four of their last six foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. Note that Brooklyn is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite of seven points or more. It also checks in 17-13 ATS in its last 30 contests following three straight losses. Meanwhile, the Blazers are a long-term 19-32 ATS as a home underdog and 11-19 ATS in their last 30 home games as an underdog of six points or less. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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01-17-24 | Canadiens v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Canadiens aren't rolling over for anyone right now, noting they've gone just 2-3 over their last five games but none of those losses came by more than a single goal. They should be feeling pretty good about themselves entering Wednesday's matchup in Newark as they're fresh off a 4-3 win over the Avalanche on Monday. The Devils will undoubtedly be in a foul mood following Monday's 3-0 shutout loss in Boston. Scoring hasn't really been an issue for the Devils lately, even without Jack Hughes among others. New Jersey had scored 21 goals over its previous five games prior to Monday's setback. The problem for the Devils here at home this season has been their inability to keep the puck out of their own net as they've allowed 3.7 goals per contest. Note that the 'over' is 13-8 in the Canadiens last 21 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-13 in the Devils last 34 contests following a road loss by three goals or more and 10-7 in their last 17 games following a loss of any sort. Take the over (10*). |
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01-17-24 | Mississippi State +7 v. Kentucky | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Kentucky at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off narrow defeats in conference play with Mississippi State dropping an 82-74 decision at home against Alabama and Kentucky falling by a 97-92 score at Texas A&M. I don't believe there's as much separating these two squads as the line would seem to indicate. The Bulldogs are an elite defensive team, currently ranked inside the top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Incredibly, they've held all 16 opponents they've faced to 28 or fewer made field goals this season with 12 of those knocking down 24 or less. Kentucky does play at a considerably faster pace than Mississippi State but there's no denying its opponents have been 'filling it up' as it has allowed 26 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests. On the flip side, the Wildcats have regularly been connecting on 30+ field goals but they've also gotten off 63 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. Only six of Mississippi State's 16 opponents have hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts this season with a high water mark of only 64. This is a game the Bulldogs have undoubtedly had circled on their calendar having lost two straight meetings in this series. Note that while Kentucky has controlled this series for the most part, the games have been close with six straight matchups having been decided by eight points or less. Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when coming off an upset loss as a favorite in-conference, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Kentucky is just 10-16 ATS in its last 26 contests after winning two of its last three games ATS. Take Mississippi State (10*). |
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01-16-24 | Coyotes v. Flames UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams just met in Arizona less than a week ago with the Flames skating to a 6-2 victory. The Coyotes rebounded nicely from that loss, opening their current road trip with a 6-0 rout of the Wild in Minnesota on Saturday. The Flames are locked-in defensively right now having held eight of their last nine opponents to three goals or less. Calgary has held opponents to just 2.9 goals per game at home this season and interestingly, Arizona has limited the opposition to an identical 2.9 goals per contest on the road. Note that the 'under' is 14-9 in the Coyotes last 23 games when seeking revenge for a loss by four goals or more against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-9 in Calgary's last 28 contests after scoring three goals or more in four consecutive games, as is the case here. Additionally, the 'under' is 10-6 in the Flames last 16 games following consecutive road wins. Take the under (8*). |
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01-16-24 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson OVER 150.5 | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Tech and Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday. This one sets up as a high-scoring affair between two struggling ACC squads on Tuesday. Georgia Tech has lost five straight games, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets do play an entertaining brand of basketball if nothing else having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last eight contests. The problem is they've operated a matador-like defense, allowing their four ACC foes to date to connect on 31, 35, 24 and 27 field goals. They were fortunate in the latter two games as both Notre Dame and Duke shot poorly but actually got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. In fact, four straight and 12 of Georgia Tech's last 15 opponents have hoisted up at least 60 field goal attempts. Clemson snapped a three-game losing streak with an 89-78 win over Boston College last time out. The Tigers have been outstanding offensively, knocking down 30 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. On the flip side, they've allowed three of their four ACC opponents to make good on 30 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-13 in the Yellow Jackets last 30 games following an in-conference loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 24-19 in Clemson's last 43 contests off an ATS victory. Take the over (10*). |
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01-16-24 | Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Kansas State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Kansas State faces a tall task as it looks to avoid a two-game skid when it hosts Baylor on Tuesday. The Bears have been ultra-efficient offensively this season, ranking fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom). I do question whether we'll see Baylor thrive in this particular matchup, however, noting that Kansas State has held four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 23 or less. In fact, the Wildcats check in 31st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Neither team really pushes the pace with the Bears ranking 219th and the Wildcats' 267th in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in Baylor's last 14 games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-19 in Kansas State's last 46 contests off an ATS win but SU loss as an underdog. Take the under (10*). |
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01-16-24 | Nuggets v. 76ers OVER 227.5 | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. This matchup features two of the league's better defensive teams to be sure but it hasn't necessarily looked like that lately. Denver enters this contest having allowed six straight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. While the 76ers have had their issues offensively over the last couple of weeks, we have seen them start to push the pace a little, hoisting up 90+ field goal attempts in six of their last 10 games. Denver has had no such issues offensively, connecting on 48, 48, 47, 37, 50 and 46 field goals over its last six contests. The scoring opportunities should be there on Tuesday, noting that Philadelphia, while generally stout defensively, has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off 88 or more field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 40-23 in the Nuggets last 63 games after losing four or five of their last six games ATS, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 53-39 in Philadelphia's last 92 contests as a favorite. Take the over (8*). |
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01-15-24 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +8.5 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 6 pm et on Monday. The Warriors opened their current road trip with a win in Chicago as they rallied for a wild 140-131 victory. They couldn't keep it going the next night as they dropped a double-digit decision in Milwaukee (Steph Curry was given the night off). While this looks like a prime bounce-back spot given the current state of the Grizzlies roster, I'm not so easily convinced. Memphis lost by 'only' 11 points against a red hot Knicks squad with a lineup that looked like what you would expect in the preseason on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have held five of their last seven opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Regardless who is able to suit up for Memphis on Monday, it should thrive offensively. Note that the opposition has been 'filling it up' against the Warriors lately, knocking down 50 or more field goals in four straight games against them and 48 or more in six of the last eight contests. Note that the underdog has gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Grizzlies check in 17-10 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring 100 points or less in their previous contest, as is the case here. They're also 27-17 ATS in their lat 44 games following consecutive ATS losses. Take Memphis (10*). |
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01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills -10 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 29 m | Show |
Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:30 pm et on Monday. UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday. I’ll still be playing the Bills minus the points. Weather can be the great equalizer at this time of year and with high winds projected for kickoff of this Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, there are those that believe that will favor the underdog Steelers who are essentially playing with house money at this point. I think it's going to be a real struggle for Pittsburgh to score points in this game, regardless how the weather turns out. Buffalo somewhat quietly enters this game riding a five-game winning streak including a 21-14 victory in Miami last Sunday night to secure the AFC East division title and the Wild Card home game that goes with it. Unlike previous years, the Bills have been forced to essentially play playoff football for weeks just to get into the postseason. I think that actually works in their favor this year and while the road to the Super Bowl runs through Baltimore in the AFC, I believe the argument can be made that the Bills are playing as well as any team in the conference right now. Pittsburgh is in this game thanks to a three-game stretch at the end of the regular season that saw it face the Bengals (without Joe Burrow among others), Seahawks (who got worse as the season went on) and the Ravens (resting the majority of their starters). Note that the Steelers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a road win. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 home contests as a favorite of between 7.5 and 14 points. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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01-15-24 | Canucks v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Columbus at 1:05 pm et on Monday. The Blue Jackets have predictably struggled this season while the Canucks have been the talk of the league, in the conversation for the best team in hockey. This is admittedly a difficult spot for Vancouver as it wraps up a long seven-game road trip having already won five of the first six contests. The Canucks are coming off a 1-0 victory in Buffalo on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 when Vancouver comes off a game in which it scored one goal or less this season. The 'over' is also 13-9 in the Canucks last 22 contests following a game that totalled three goals or less. The Blue Jackets limp into this matchup having lost three games in a row. They've giving up 3.6 goals per game on home ice this season. The 'over' is 31-16 in their last 47 games following three straight losses. Columbus has been downright sieve-like defensively over the last three weeks, allowing four goals or more in three straight and seven of its last nine games overall. The 'over' is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Columbus. Take the over (8*). |
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01-14-24 | Rams +3 v. Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Detroit at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. The Rams enter the playoffs playing as well as anyone over the last two months, winners of seven of their last eight games having gone 6-2 ATS over that stretch. They're in their sweet spot on Sunday as they've gone 25-18 ATS in their last 43 road games as an underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Lions are just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell elected to play his starters in last Sunday's win over the Vikings and paid the price to a certain extent with standout rookie TE Sam LaPorta suffering an injury. He has actually been able to get in limited practice this week and is expected to play but it remains to be seen how effective he can actually be. Regardless, I don't believe this is a favorable matchup for the Lions. I don't think there's anything more dangerous than an experienced team that catches fire late in the season and goes on the road in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The pressure rests squarely on the Lions shoulders in their first home playoff game in three decades. Keep in mind, Detroit played another seemingly massive home game back on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers and was stunned 29-22 as a near-double-digit favorite. Few teams can match Detroit's personnel at the skill positions on offense but Los Angeles is one of them with the emergence of rookie WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams this season. Note that the underdog has gone 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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01-14-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 142-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Kings got their current road trip off to a perfect 2-0 start before running into the 76ers in Philadelphia on Friday. The road won't get any easier with a stop in Milwaukee on deck on Sunday but I look for Sacramento to hang tough. This is undoubtedly a matchup the Kings have had circled on their calendar having lost an incredible 14 straight meetings in this series going back to 2016. There have been plenty of close games over that stretch and I certainly feel that the Kings have closed the talent gap somewhat in recent years. Note that the Kings enter this contest sporting a 10-8 road record (11-7 ATS) while the Bucks are 18-3 SU at home but a money-burning 8-13 ATS. Sacramento has quietly held three straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Going back farther, the Kings have limited 15 of their last 19 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Sacramento has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight contests. The Bucks have shown on interest or ability to slow down the opposition, yielding at least 90 field goal attempts in 16 of their last 18 contests. The Kings are a long-term 60-42 ATS when playing on the road and 34-26 ATS in their last 60 road games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Bucks are just 37-41 ATS in their last 78 games following a home win and a long-term 80-103 ATS when coming off consecutive home victories. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-14-24 | Washington v. UCLA +3.5 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade Washington off its win and cover against Arizona State on Thursday. UCLA had a much different result on that same night as it dropped a 90-44 decision at Utah. The Bruins have been a pretty big disappointment to this point of the season and the turnaround needs to start now. The good news is, they've won eight straight meetings in this series. Note that Washington is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games off a double-digit home win, as is the case here. UCLA is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 contests after losing three of its last four games ATS and 3-1 ATS in its last four games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take UCLA (8*). |
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01-13-24 | Pelicans v. Mavs -2.5 | 118-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. While this isn't necessarily a 'throwaway game' for the Pelicans, it's as close to it as it gets. New Orleans is already off to a 2-1 start on its current five-game road trip, which wraps up with this two-game in three-night set in Dallas. The tough part here is that the Pelicans are coming off a double-digit loss in Denver last night - a high-scoring affair in which they expended plenty of energy trying to fight back all night long, to no avail. Often teams that play a back-to-back with the front half taking place in the high altitude of Denver will play the second half in Utah, also in high altitude (or vice-versa). That's obviously not the case here. The Mavericks had yesterday off following Thursday's 128-124 home win over the Knicks. Dallas has now won four of its last five games SU and ATS and has gone 8-3 ATS since December 23rd. Luka Doncic remains sidelined but Kyrie Irving appears to be relishing the role of top dog again, fresh off scoring 33 or more points in three straight games. Note that New Orleans is 14-28 ATS in its last 42 road games after winning four or five of its last six games ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Dallas is 36-22 ATS in its last 58 contests when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. Take Dallas (8*). |
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01-13-24 | California v. Oregon -8 | Top | 73-80 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over California at 8 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but think California is walking into a hornet's nest in Eugene on Saturday. The Golden Bears trailed big early but staged a furious rally in the second half to upset Colorado two nights ago in Berkeley. Now they have to hit the road to face a red hot Oregon squad that has won five straight and eight of its last nine games, going 7-2 ATS over that stretch. The Ducks have been idle since last Saturday's five-point win as an underdog at Washington State. Cal has been thriving offensively but here it runs into an Oregon squad that has held seven of its last eight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or less. Note that Cal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Oregon is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 80 points or more in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Oregon (10*). |
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01-13-24 | Avalanche v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. While I do think the Maple Leafs have the offense to keep pace with the Avalanche, I question whether their defense and goaltending can hang in this matchup. The Leafs let the Islanders off the hook two nights ago on Long Island and that's been a common theme this season. Toronto returns home on Saturday but has given up an average of 3.5 goals per game at Scotiabank Arena. The good news is, the Leafs have averaged 3.9 goals per contest at home. Colorado's offense has lagged at times this season, particularly on the road where it averages only 3.0 goals per game. It should be feeling pretty good about itself here, however, noting that it has scored 40 goals over its last 10 games. Note that the 'over' is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I think the Browns can score at will in this game as they look to continue their upward trajectory with veteran QB Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland was a run-first team earlier in the season, rushing the ball more than 30 times in eight of its first nine games. It was a much different story down the stretch, however, as the Browns ran the football at least 30 times just once in their final eight contests. They'll undoubtedly deploy a similar strategy here as the Texans simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the pass. On the flip side, I don't think we can rule out the Texans staying competitive in this game. When they faced the Browns on Christmas Eve they scored 22 points despite accomplishing very little with Case Keenum and Davis Mills running the offense. The Browns defense simply hasn't travelled well this season, allowing at least 22 points in all eight road games with the 'over' cashing at a perfect 8-0 clip. Note that the 'over' is 29-15 in the Texans last 44 home games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. I also strongly believe this game has the potential for 'splash' plays from the two defenses, potentially leading to points on the board. Flacco has admittedly been turnover-prone. C.J. Stroud, while the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year, will be up against a ball-hawking Browns secondary that looks like it will have the services of CB Denzel Ward after he tweaked his knee at practice earlier this week. Take the over (10*). |
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01-12-24 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 229.5 | 113-125 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday. Few are paying nearly enough attention but the Pelicans continue to dominate defensively having held an incredible nine straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 13 consecutive foes to 41 or less. Yes, the Pelicans have gone off offensively in their last two games, knocking down 50 and 54 field goals in wins over the Kings and Warriors but they'll face a more difficult challenge against the defending champion Nuggets in Denver on Friday. The Nuggets will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after getting blasted by the Jazz in Utah two nights ago. The Jazz quite simply shot the lights out in that contest. Denver has still held 10 of its last 11 opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. At home, the Nuggets have limited the opposition to an average of 41-of-88 shooting. Note that the 'under' is 40-25 in the Pelicans last 65 games off a double-digit victory. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-9 in the Nuggets last 22 contests following an upset loss by double-digits. Take the under (8*). |
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01-12-24 | Manhattan v. Rider -10 | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Rider minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure the average better realizes just how bad Manhattan is this season. The Jaspers rank 342nd out of 362 Division-I teams according to KenPom. Their offense ranks 351st. Rider is still trying to get loose following a tough start to the season that was largely fuelled by a difficult schedule (the Broncs have faced the 95th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom). We saw positive strides from the Broncs last weekend as they took Quinnipiac down to the wire in a four-point road loss before outlasting Canisius in overtime back at home. Note that Manhattan is currently on a 1-5 ATS slide while the favorite has gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Take Rider (8*). |
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01-12-24 | Quinnipiac v. Marist UNDER 139.5 | Top | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Marist at 7 pm et on Friday. This game features a contrast in styles as Quinnipiac ranks 30th in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Marist checks in 303rd in that same category. It won't be easy for the Bobcats to bait the Red Foxes into an up-and-down affair here, however, noting that Marist has hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts just twice this season. Meanwhile, the Red Foxes have held the opposition to just 17, 21, 16 and 19 made field goals in their four home games this season. I do think Marist can control the tempo here as a short home favorite. Note that the Red Foxes are coming off three straight losses while Quinnipiac made the most of its two MAAC home games last weekend, going 2-0. While the Bobcats have proven rather vulnerable defensively this season, they should benefit from facing Marist here. The Red Foxes have knocked down more than 23 field goals just twice in their last seven contests. The 'under' is 16-10 in the Bobcats last 26 games following consecutive wins. The 'under' is also 9-3 in the Red Foxes last 12 contests following consecutive ATS defeats. Finally, the 'under' is 62-46 in Marist's last 108 games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take the under (10*). |
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01-11-24 | Bruins -127 v. Golden Knights | 1-2 | Loss | -127 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Last night's 3-0 setback in Denver dropped Vegas to a miserable 12-17 over its last 29 games. Things won't get any easier on Thursday as it travels back home to face a Bruins squad that should be in a foul mood after dropping consecutive games to open their current western road swing. Boston had the benefit of being off yesterday and checks in 12-10 on the road this season, where it has allowed just 2.9 goals per game. Note that the B's are 27-12 in their last 39 games following a road loss. Better still, they're 7-2 in their last nine contests following consecutive road defeats and a red hot 10-1 in their last 11 games after giving up three goals or more in three straight games, as is the case here. Vegas is just 8-15 in its last 23 games when playing on no rest. The Knights are also just 11-14 in their last 25 contests after a road loss by two goals or more. Take Boston (8*). |
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01-11-24 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 237 | 127-109 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers may have scored 132 points in Tuesday's controversial win over the Raptors but they actually got off just 81 field goal attempts in that contest, continuing a recent trend. Los Angeles has hoisted up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. The 44 field goals they knocked down on Tuesday marked a high point over their last six contests. The Suns have had two full days to digest an ugly defensive showing in a 138-111 loss to the Clippers on Monday. They've still limited four of their last five opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. Given the pieces they have in place you would think that Phoenix would be lighting up the scoreboard this season but that simply hasn't been the case. They enter this game having connected on 44 or fewer field goals in five of their last six contests. On the road this season they're averaging only 40 made field goals per game while the Lakers are giving up an average of just 41 at home. Note that the 'under' is 31-26 in Phoenix's last 57 games following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 14-7 in its last 21 contests after losing its previous game by 15 points or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 45-24 in the Lakers last 69 home games with a total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 33-26 in their last 59 contests after scoring 130 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (8*). |
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01-11-24 | Canucks v. Penguins -123 | 4-3 | Loss | -123 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Vancouver at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canucks have made the most of their current road trip, reeling off three straight wins following a loss in St. Louis to kick it off. I don't like the spot for Vancouver here, however, as it plays its sixth game in the last 10 nights, in six different cities no less. Note that the Canucks are just 5-8 in their last 13 games following consecutive road wins and 0-3 in their last three contests after scoring five goals or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here. The Penguins are in an excellent positive momentum spot here off Monday's 4-1 win in Philadelphia. They're 29-21 in their last 50 games following a road victory and 28-15 in their last 43 contests after allowing one goal or less in their previous game. Finally, we'll note that the home team has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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01-11-24 | Michigan v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Michigan at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these Big Ten squads enter on a downturn with the Wolverines having dropped four in a row SU and five straight games ATS and the Terrapins fresh off three straight losses, including two in a row ATS. I think it's Maryland that's much better-positioned to rebound on Thursday. The Wolverines matador-like defense just isn't cutting it. Michigan has allowed a boatload of scoring opportunities on a seemingly every game basis and its opposition has made the most of those opportunities, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. The Terps offense went cold over the last couple of games but that was to be expected against the likes of Purdue and Minnesota. Here, taking a step down in class should benefit the Terps. Maryland does possess a defense as well, having held five straight opponents to fewer than 26 made field goals and an impressive eight straight foes to 26 or less. The home team has owned this series lately, taking five straight meetings both SU and ATS. Take Maryland (10*). |
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01-10-24 | Colorado -5 v. California | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 11 pm et on Wednesday. Colorado is coming off a disappointing trip through Arizona last weekend as it dropped games against the Wildcats and Sun Devils. I expect it to bounce back here, however, as it heads to Berkeley to take on the Bears who are in a prime letdown spot off an upset win over rival UCLA last Saturday. That win over the Bruins had more to do with UCLA having an off night than anything else. The Bruins couldn't get anything going, knocking down just 21-of-49 field goal attempts in the loss. The Bears offense remained sluggish and ranks 113th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Colorado sits 33rd in the country in that department. The Buffaloes are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games after giving up 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Cal is just 7-18 ATS in its last 25 lined home games. Take Colorado (8*). |
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01-10-24 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. Vegas skated to a stunning 7-0 home win over Colorado in the first meeting between these two teams this season. I expect a game played much closer to the vest in Wednesday's rematch. Note that you would have to go back six meetings here in Colorado to find the last time a game went 'over' the total. The Avalanche are coming off a string of high-scoring games but we'll note that the 'under' is 7-1 in their last eight home games after scoring three goals or more in five consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 13-4 in the Avs last 17 contests after allowing three goals or more in four straight games. The Golden Knights have posted an all-time 110-124 o/u mark when coming off a game that totalled seven goals or more, which is the situation here. The 'under' is also 42-34 all-time with the Knights off a home win by three goals or more. Take the under (8*). |
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01-10-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 233.5 | Top | 141-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors were embarrassed on their home floor against the Raptors on Sunday, allowing 133 points as they suffered their fifth loss in their last seven games. I expect them to tighten the screws against a familiar opponent on Wednesday as they host the red hot Pelicans. Note that Golden State has held New Orleans to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven of eight meetings going back to the start of the 21-22 season. The Pelicans are quietly as locked-in as it gets defensively right now. They've allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 straight games. They've also held seven of their last 10 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Warriors have been a mixed bag offensively and check in averaging just 41-of-90 shooting at home this season. While the 'over' did cash in the first meeting between these two teams this season, we haven't seen consecutive matchups go 'over' the total since the 2018-19 season. Take the under (10*). |
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01-10-24 | 76ers +2.5 v. Hawks | 132-139 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers had a brutal back-to-back set at home against New York and Utah last Friday and Saturday. The absence of Joel Embiid has certainly hurt their cause but this is still a team that has enough talent to hang, even without their big man. They got caught trying to do too much on Saturday against the Jazz, hoisting up an uncharacteristic 104 field goal attempts in the 120-109 loss. I think we'll see a much more composed 76ers squad on Wednesday as they come off a much-needed three-day break. They'll certainly get their opportunities against a Hawks team that has allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games. Of their last 11 opponents, nine have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Only three of Philadelphia's last 15 foes have made good on 43 or more field goals. The Hawks can score with the best of them but despite hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games, they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in three of those contests. Note that the 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following consecutive upset losses, as is the case here. They're also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss. The Hawks on the other hand are just 33-41 ATS in their last 74 games as a home favorite and 18-26 ATS in their last 44 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, which is the situation here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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01-09-24 | Raptors v. Lakers OVER 233.5 | Top | 131-132 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. While few are paying much attention, the Raptors have gone on an offensive tear lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in six of their last eight games with the 'over' cashing at a 6-2 clip over that stretch. The Lakers were fortunate to catch the Clippers on an off shooting night on Sunday as they allowed 91 field goal attempts but the Clips could only make good on 36 of them. While the Lakers have generally been able to slow down the opposition this season, we've seen a bit of a sputter lately as two of their last three foes have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts. The Raptors don't always play fast but they're definitely making the most of their scoring opportunities right now and I like the rhythm they're in having played every second night going back to December 30th. On the flip side, you would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Toronto held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. Of their last 10 opponents, seven have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Their last two foes have reached the 100 mark in terms of field goal attempts. For the Lakers, this will be their fourth straight home game and I expect them to come out with plenty of energy following an off day on Monday. While Sunday's game against the Clippers did stay 'under' the total, the Lakers haven't produced consecutive 'under' results since a four-game streak from December 2nd to 9th. Take the over (10*). |
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01-09-24 | Canucks v. Islanders -130 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -130 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Vancouver at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. You have to figure the Islanders were pleased seeing the Canucks pour it on early against the Rangers in Manhattan last night. It's never a bad thing to see your upcoming opponent punch themselves tired in the front half of a back-to-back set. The Isles are fresh off a couple of days off after a disappointing 1-3 road trip. Note that New York has gone 11-2 in its last 13 home contests when coming off a road trip lasting two or more games. The Isles are also 16-8 in their last 24 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Canucks have taken each of the last two meetings between these two teams, including a 4-3 victory on home ice back in mid-November. That's notable as Vancouver hasn't won three straight matchups with New York since back in 2015-16. Take New York (10*). |
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01-09-24 | Houston v. Iowa State UNDER 131.5 | Top | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Iowa State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Iowa State has been able to force the issue offensively this season to generally positive results. It ranks 88th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Cyclones figure to face a stiff challenge here, however, as they host undefeated Houston. The Cougars sit 325th in the nation in adjusted tempo and no team ranks higher in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. In fact, only one of Houston's 14 opponents this season has managed to knock down 20 or more field goals. As I mentioned, Iowa State has shown out offensively at times but when stepping up in class (in games where the pointspread has closed at six points or less) it has been held to 62 points against Virginia Tech, 69 points against Texas A&M and most recently 63 points against Oklahoma this past Saturday. For Houston, this will be just its second true road game this season. In the Cougars lone previous road tilt they scored just 66 points in a six-point victory at Xavier. Note that the 'under' is 22-12 in the Cougars last 34 games following a double-digit home win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 22-13 in Iowa State's last 35 contests following an ATS loss and 14-8 in its last 22 games after a loss against an conference opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-24 | Suns +6.5 v. Clippers | 111-138 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Suns dropped a 121-115 home decision against the Grizzlies last night as they essentially folded the tent in the fourth quarter and let Memphis off the hook. That doesn't change the fact that Phoenix has been playing better lately, particularly from an offensive standpoint. Note that the Suns have knocked down 44 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. They'll head to Los Angeles on Monday to face a Clippers squad that is fresh off a 106-103 loss to the Lakers last night. While Los Angeles has been stacking wins, you can almost sense a downturn coming. The Clippers offense has stagnated somewhat, making good on 42 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven contests. Of course, there was a 131-point outburst against these same Suns in Phoenix last week but I think the Clips will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance in this back-to-back spot. Note that the road team has gone 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. I noted that Phoenix's offense has been trending up and you could argue it has played better defensive basketball on the road compared to at home this season, allowing just a shade under 112 points per game which is around two points per game fewer than its overall season average. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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01-08-24 | Bruins v. Avalanche -125 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Boston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. These two teams had very different results in their respective games on Saturday. Colorado dropped an ugly 8-4 decision in afternoon action at home against Florida while Boston skated past Tampa Bay by a 7-3 score. The Avalanche are still an impressive 16-5 on home ice this season and check in 25-12 in their last 37 games after allowing five goals or more in their previous contest. Colorado has also gone 6-2 in its last eight games after a home loss by three goals or more. This is undoubtedly a game the Avs had circled on their calendar at the outset of the season after the Bruins defeated them 5-1 and 4-0 in a pair of matchups last season. Note that the home team has gone 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this series. While the Avs have the benefit of staying home following Saturday's contest, the Bruins will have travelled across the country. Boston also has to catch a plane to Arizona after tonight's contest as it plays against the Coyotes tomorrow night. Meanwhile, the Avs can empty the tank tonight as they'll have a day off tomorrow before hosting Vegas on Wednesday to wrap up their three-game homestand. Take Colorado (8*). |