Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-21-23 | Youngstown State v. Robert Morris OVER 144 | 64-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Youngstown State and Robert Morris at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While few are paying much attention, Youngstown State is currently on an incredible shooting run having knocked down 30 or more field goals in six straight games. In fact, you would have to go back 24 games - all the way to November 20th - to find the last time the Penguins were held to fewer than 26 made field goals. While the schedule has had something to do with it (they've faced the 326th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom), the fact that they rank 30th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) is impressive to say the least. While Robert Morris has held up well defensively of late (it has limited four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals), the toughest offensive opponent it faced over that stretch was Cleveland State and the Vikings check in just 185th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 294th in adjusted tempo this season. Youngstown State should present somewhat of a 'shock to the system' here. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 'only' 134 points in a Penguins blowout victory. Keep in mind, Robert Morris made good on just one three-pointers and five free throws in that contest. The Colonials average eight made threes and 12 successful free throws per contest here at home where tonight's rematch will be played. Robert Morris is by no means an offensive juggernaut but has knocked down at least 21 field goals in 23 straight games and could catch Youngstown State letting its guard down here after the Penguins routed Milwaukee and Green Bay by 29 and 30 points in their last two games. Take the over (8*). |
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02-20-23 | Hawaii v. CS Bakersfield OVER 122.5 | Top | 61-50 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Cal State-Bakersfield at 8 pm et on Monday. Bakersfield has quietly gone on a 9-0 'over' run over its last nine contests and that includes an earlier 72-69 loss on the road against tonight's opponent, Hawaii, back on January 28th. The Roadrunners were held to fewer than 20 made field goals in seven of their first 18 games this season but have since found some consistency at the offensive end of the floor, knocking down 22 or more field goals in each of their last eight games, despite ranking 344th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. CSUB is also coming off a stellar defensive effort in an 'upset' win at Cal-Poly last time out. Stringing together strong defensive performances has proven difficult for the Roadrunners this season, however. Note that after holding an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals, they've allowed 72, 63, 79, 65, 71, 67 and 79 points in their next contest. They've actually held two of their last three foes to less than 20 successful FG attempts, but those games came against two of the country's weakest offensive teams in Cal State-Northridge and Cal-Poly. Hawaii ranks an impressive 66th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but has also faced only the 272nd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). The Rainbow Warriors have actually allowed seven of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate Long Beach State couldn't make the most of its scoring opportunities on Saturday as the 49ers got off 60 FG attempts but only connected on 25 of them (Hawaii won that game 70-67). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 31-16 in Hawaii's last 47 games as a road favorite or pk'em and 9-1 in CSUB's last 10 games when coming off an outright win as an underdog. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-23 | Rider v. Quinnipiac OVER 140 | Top | 88-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Rider and Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday. When these teams last met this season they combined to score 'only' 135 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 143.5. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Rider has gone on an offensive tear over the last month or so, knocking down 29, 30, 26, 28, 25 and 30 field goals over its last six games and that's without facing the conference's fastest-paced team, Iona, a single time over that stretch. The Broncs defensive numbers have been terrific lately as well. They had held 11 straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals before giving up 26 in Friday's 81-78 loss to Canisius. With that being said, those results were certainly due in part to the slow-paced opponents they faced. Here, they'll be up against a Quinnipiac squad that ranks 57th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Like the Broncs, the Bobcats have been consistently good offensively of late, connecting on 27, 29, 23, 29, 24 and 24 field goals over their last six games. The problem for Quinnipiac is that it is still giving up too many scoring opportunities to the opposition, allowing nine consecutive opponents to hoist up at least 58 field goal attempts. Given how hot Rider has been from the field, there's a good chance it goes off here if the pace ticks up at all. With that being said, the Bobcats are favored for a reason. I'm confident both teams do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-23 | North Carolina v. NC State OVER 151.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and N.C. State at 1 pm et on Sunday. These two teams combined to score 'only' 149 points in their first matchup this season. Interestingly, the Tar Heels scored 80 points in that game despite knocking down only 20-of-54 field goal attempts. The difference proved to be their ridiculous 36-of-39 performance from the free throw line. They were certainly fortunate that the Wolfpack couldn't make the most of their scoring opportunities in that game as N.C. State did get off 62 field goal attempts (connecting on only 26 of them). I would certainly anticipate a sharper offensive performance from the Wolfpack in this home rematch, noting that they enter on a serious tear having made good on 30 or more field goals in four of their last six contests. North Carolina has done a good job of keeping its opponents' pace down lately, but has still allowed 24 or more made field goals in eight straight games. Meanwhile, N.C. State has been fortunate that its last two opponents, Boston College and Syracuse, have had off nights shooting the basketball as those two foes hoisted up 61 and 62 FG attempts, respectively. North Carolina figures to be able to take advantage of that potential high shot volume, noting that it has knocked down 30, 32 and 29 field goals over its last three contests. Take the over (8*). |
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02-18-23 | Red Wings v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Seattle at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. The Red Wings have scored a whopping 16 goals in their first three games on their current road trip. I don't expect them to have an easy time scoring as their western road swing continues in Seattle on Saturday, however. The Kraken have held eight of their last 11 opponents to three goals or less. Seattle has scored 12 goals over its last three contests but will be up against a Red Wings squad that has allowed three goals or less in nine of its last 11 games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 35-21 with Detroit coming off a game in which it scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. The 'under' is also 10-2 with the Kraken coming off a game that totalled eight goals or more this season, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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02-18-23 | Baylor v. Kansas OVER 148.5 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baylor and Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in the first meeting between these two teams this season as Baylor prevailed by a score of 75-69 in a game that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. The Bears were fortunate to win that contest as they struggled to make good on their scoring opportunities, connecting on just 23-of-62 field goal attempts. While they're the underdog this time around, I do actually expect a better offensive showing, noting that they rank first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom and enter this game having made good on 25 or more field goals in five straight games. Few teams are as locked-in offensively as the Jayhawks right now. They've knocked down 33 or more field goals in each of their last three games. While they've posted a couple of standout defensive performances over their last five contests I still think it's worth noting that they haven't held a single opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game this season. Part of that has to do with the fact that they play at a fast pace, ranking 70th in the nation in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Kansas has hoisted up 60 or more FG attempts in five of its last six games overall and I'm confident we'll see it go on the aggressive in this 'revenge' spot on Saturday. Baylor, while a solid defensive team, has allowed nine consecutive opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals. Take the over (10*). |
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02-18-23 | Boston College v. Florida State OVER 141.5 | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Florida State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off poor offensive showings last time out but I see this as an ideal 'get-right' spot in that regard for both on Saturday. Boston College once again got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts (for the third time in its last four games) but could only make good on 21 of those attempts against a terrific Pittsburgh team on Tuesday. The Eagles have still connected on 26 or more field goals in three of their last four contests and should benefit from facing a Florida State team that ranks 254th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Seminoles have apparently thrown defense out the window during a miserable 1-6 slide, allowing all seven of those opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals. Florida State is favored for a reason here, however. Boston College has also struggled defensively of late, allowing three straight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts and six of its last seven foes to make good on at least 26 field goals. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season so it's a little tougher for the oddsmakers to gauge where exactly the total should be set. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (8*). |
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02-17-23 | Stars v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Friday. With the 'under' having cashed in each of the Stars last nine games and seven of the Wild's last eight games overall, we're starting to see adjustments from the oddsmakers with a 5.5 popping up for the third time in Dallas' last four games and for the first time in the last four games for Minnesota (the last time it did the Wild produced their most recent 'over' result). We'll go the contrarian route here as I feel this game is well-positioned to be higher-scoring than expected. Note that the Stars are operating with a small margin for error defensively right now, having allowed 34, 39, 31 and 37 shots on goal over their last four contests. The Wild had allowed 30 or more shots on goal in seven of their last eight games before holding Colorado to only 19 on Wednesday. In that contest, Minnesota flipped the script, firing 43 shots on goal but quite simply ran into a hot goaltender. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Stars coming off five or six loses in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.9 goals. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Wild playing at home off a one-goal defeat against a division opponent, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 8.6 goals in that spot. While both teams boast hot goaltenders, I don't mind the matchup here. Stars starting netminder Jake Oettinger is having a terrific season but the Wild managed to score five goals against him just two months ago. Wild goaltender Filip Gustavsson has arguably been better than supposed number-one Marc-Andre Fleury this season but the last time the Stars saw him between the pipes they scored three goals against him (before adding an empty-netter) earlier this month. Fleury has posted a less-than-impressive .881 save percentage over his last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-17-23 | Dayton v. Loyola-Chicago +7.5 | Top | 65-49 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Dayton at 7 pm et on Friday. Most completely wrote off Loyola-Chicago from a betting perspective in mid-January and perhaps for good reason as the Ramblers had started the 22-23 campaign with a miserable 3-15 ATS record through 18 games. Since then, however, Loyola-Chicago has gone a respectable 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS over its last seven games and while it sits in last-place in the Atlantic-10 standings, all is not lose given all 15 teams will take part in the conference tournament in March. Here, the Ramblers will have revenge on their minds after dropping a tough 85-81 decision at Dayton back on January 31st, in a game where the Flyers owned a 31-13 disparity in terms of free throw attempts (keeping in mind Dayton only averages three more trips to the charity stripe than Loyola-Chicago this season). That game kicked off a 4-1 ATS run for the Ramblers and I look for them to improve on that mark here. Note that Loyola-Chicago has really turned things around defensively. After a stretch that saw it allow 28 or more made field goals in five of seven games from December 22nd to January 18th, they've yielded 26 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven contests. The outlier came in a game where they allowed St. Joseph's to knock down 28 of a whopping 68 field goal attempts. Dayton is highly unlikely to approach that level of shot volume here, noting that it ranks 339th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Offensively, we've seen more consistency from the Ramblers during their recent uptick as they've knocked down 23 or more field goals in six of their last seven games with the low-water mark coming earlier this week when they made good on only 21 field goals but still pulled out a 64-62 win at UMass. As I mentioned, Dayton plays at a very slow pace. The Flyers have hoisted up 56 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games overall. While they are a terrific defensive team, it's not as if they've been completely shutting down opposing offenses. Dayton has yielded at least 20 made field goals in 12 straight contests, including that game against Loyola-Chicago in which the Ramblers connected on 29-of-59 FG attempts. These two teams have faced almost identical schedules in terms of difficulty this season (according to KenPom) and while Dayton has proven to be the superior squad to be sure, Loyola-Chicago has at least narrowed the gap in recent weeks. I'm still not convinced the betting marketplace has caught up with the Ramblers improved play so I'll grab all the points I can get here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Stanford v. UCLA OVER 130.5 | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and UCLA at 11 pm et on Thursday. It's easy to forget that the first meeting between these two teams produced 146 points as that matchup took place way back on December 1st. Since then, UCLA has been an 'under' machine, cashing at a 12-5 clip over its last 16 games. That leads us to a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Stanford enjoyed a nice run in late-January but has largely been an afterthought in the Pac-12 this season. With that being said, I have a lot of respect for the Cardinal offensively, noting that they rank 64th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, despite facing the nation's 63rd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). You would have to go back 19 games to find the last time Stanford was held to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game (I use that number as UCLA has held six of its last 11 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals). Over their last five games, the Cardinal have impressively knocked down 28, 26, 24, 23 and 33 field goals. They've scored at least 62 points in eight straight contests. Unfortunately, the Cardinal defense hasn't been along for the ride, allowing 25, 29, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last four games. There's a good chance we see the Bruins offense go off in this one, noting that Stanford has also yielded more than 60 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests opening the door for a sharp-shooting Bruins squad that has made good on 25 or more field goals in four straight games, despite hoisting up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in two of those contests. UCLA ranks 24th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 39th toughest slate of opponents to date (both according to KenPom once again). I do expect the Bruins to get pushed a bit in this one and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Flyers v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We got the result we wanted in this same matchup on Sunday afternoon as the two teams combined to score seven goals in a Kraken road victory. I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as the scene shifts to Seattle for Thursday's rematch. Note that Kraken home games have been considerably lower-scoring than their road affairs. While their road tilts have averaged north of 7.0 goals per contest, their home games have produced an average total of only 6.0 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 16-9-1 clip. Goals haven't been easy to come by for the Flyers over the last month or so. Going back to January 19th they've scored four goals in a game only once (in a game that totalled just four goals), three goals three times and two goals or less on six occasions. It's a similar story for Seattle. It has produced four goals or more three times since January 16th, three goals twice and two goals or less in seven contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-3 with the Flyers playing on the road off an 'over' result this season, leading to an average total of 5.2 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-2 with the Kraken coming off a one-goal loss this season, which is the case here, producing an average total of 5.6 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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02-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. We have a good setup for this play on Thursday as both the Clippers and Suns shot the lights out in their respective games two nights ago but are unlikely to reach those heights in a much tougher matchup here. Los Angeles took advantage of an undermanned Warriors team playing the second of back-to-backs on Tuesday, putting up a whopping 134 points in a 10-point victory. Kawhi Leonard knocked down 12-of-17 shot attempts including a ridiculous 7-of-9 from three-point range. Norm Powell also enjoyed an outlier of a night off the bench, pouring in 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting. Powell is expected to sit out Thursday's game, however. Prior to that contest, the Clippers had been held to 38 and 42 made field goals in their previous two games, getting off just 86 and 85 field goal attempts in those contests - both of which stayed 'under' the total. Defensively, the Clips have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding five of their last eight foes to 84 or fewer FG attempts. The simple fact is, their last three opponents have shot incredibly well. I do think we see Los Angeles tighten the screws defensively here in its last game prior to the All-Star break against a familiar opponent in the Suns. Note that while Phoenix has made good on 42 or more field goals in all five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2022, it scored 'only' 106, 103, 109, 112 and 111 points in those five contests. The Suns did knock down a whopping 50 field goals in a night where everything was going in against a subpar Kings defense on Tuesday. Prior to that they had topped out at 43 made field goals over their last seven games. Few teams are as locked-in defensively as the Suns right now. They've limited five of their last six opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and have allowed just 35, 38, 43, 36 and 37 made field goals over that stretch. The lone outlier came in a road game at Atlanta with a short-handed lineup on trade deadline day last Thursday. Phoenix has certainly had Los Angeles' number defensively, holding it to 96 points or less in an incredible four of five meetings since last January (all five of those contests stayed 'under' the total). Take the under (10*). |
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02-15-23 | Heat -1 v. Nets | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The excitement around the new-look, youthful Brooklyn Nets has faded somewhat as they've dropped consecutive games against the 76ers and Knicks. Despite catching fire from the field for stretches, the Nets still managed to knock down only 35 field goals and score just 106 points in Monday's lopsided defeat in Manhattan. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Brooklyn knocked down 40+ field goals in a game and things certainly won't get any easier as they host a Heat team coming off a loss two nights ago on Wednesday. Miami ran into a red-hot shooting Nuggets squad on Monday, falling by four points. Still, the Heat have held an incredible 16 straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and 17 of their last 22 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven and 10 of their last 12 games overall. On many occasions, the opportunities just haven't been there in abundance as Miami does play at a slow pace. I don't anticipate that being an issue here, however, noting that the Nets have allowed four of their last seven opponents to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts. This is undoubtedly a game the Heat have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 102-101 decision at home against the Nets back on January 8th. Brooklyn has now won back-to-back meetings in this series which is notable as it hasn't posted three straight victories over the Heat since 2017-18. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-15-23 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +8 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a previous big ticket on Georgia Tech in its upset home win over Miami in early January but have left the Yellow Jackets alone since and probably for good reason as they followed up that victory with a 1-7 ATS slide. However, we have seen signs of life once again from Georgia Tech lately as it enters Wednesday's matchup with Virginia Tech off three straight ATS victories. Last time out it suffered a narrow one-point loss as a 13-point underdog at Wake Forest. While few are paying attention to them, I believe the Yellow Jackets are in good position to at the very least take the Hokies down to the wire on Wednesday. We haven't necessarily seen the payoff just yet but the Jackets are doing a nice job of pushing the pace, having gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four and seven of their last 10 games overall. Here, they'll face a Hokies squad that has been terrific offensively in recent weeks but it has seemingly come at the expense of their defensive play. Virginia Tech checks in having allowed 29, 23, 35, 25, 29 and 34 made field goals over its last six contests. Of those six opponents only two got off more than 60 field goal attempts so it's not as if the opposition has found success only by volume-shooting. As I mentioned, Virginia Tech is on a tear offensively, however Georgia Tech does figure to offer some resistance. The Yellow Jackets check in a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 66th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). They've held their last four opponents to just 21, 26, 23 and 23 made field goals and that's despite three of those games coming on the road. Also note that Georgia Tech has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and ranks 220th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season. There's a path for the revenge-minded Yellow Jackets (they dropped both meetings in this series last season) to effectively shorten this game and stay inside the generous pointspread. Take Georgia Tech (10*). |
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02-14-23 | Penguins -150 v. Sharks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Sharks on Sunday in Washington but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade them as they return home to host the Penguins on Tuesday. Pittsburgh is coming off an ugly 6-0 loss in Los Angeles on Saturday, evening its record at 1-1 on its current western road trip. This is undoubtedly a game the Pens have had circled since dropping a 6-4 decision at home against the Sharks on January 28th (as -230 favorites). While San Jose has enjoyed some success on the road this season it is just 5-18 on home ice, where it has been outscored by an average margin of 1.0 goal per contest. The Sharks have won consecutive games only three times previously this season and I don't expect them to accomplish that feat here. Note that Pittsburgh is a long-term 87-75 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
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02-14-23 | Kings v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Suns as they try to close the gap on the Kings in the Pacific Division standings (Phoenix currently sits two games back of Sacramento for top spot). Sacramento has been a terrific story this season but we've certainly seen some regression from the Kings lately as they've gone an even 6-6 over their last 12 games. We did get the result we wanted from them on Saturday as they successfully avenged a loss to the Mavs in the second half of a back-to-back set at home, prevailing 133-128 in overtime. That sets us up with a reasonably short number in favor of the Suns at home here. While Phoenix is a little undermanned right now with Kevin Durant still sidelined and yet to make his team debut, I like the fact that it has gone back to its bread-and-butter, that being its defense, to right the ship. The Suns have won three of their last five games and are absolutely locked-in defensively right now having held four of those five opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Suns opponents have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, managing only 75, 81, 79, 95 and 85 field goal attempts over their last five contests. The outlier came in a game where they were severely short-handed on trade deadline day against the Hawks (Devin Booker missed that game as well). Save for that poor performance in Atlanta, the Suns have made good on more than 40 field goals in four of their last five and six of their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Kings' opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 48, 44, 47, 43 and 47 (aided by overtime) field goals over their last five contests. In fact, Sacramento has allowed an incredible 20 straight and 27 of its last 28 opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. Offensively, the Kings are explosive but we've seen some inconsistency in that department lately as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in three of their last six games. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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02-14-23 | Hurricanes v. Capitals OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. UPDATE: Alex Ovechkin has been ruled OUT for the Capitals. While that obviously makes me a little less confident in the play, I still like the price and the situation. The first meeting between these two teams this season was a relatively low-scoring affair as the Hurricanes skated to a 3-2 home victory on Halloween Night. It's worth noting that we haven't seen consecutive matchups between the Canes and Capitals stay 'under' the total since a playoff series back in 2019. Here, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. Both teams are coming off poor showings offensively. The Canes dropped a 6-2 decision on home ice against the Rangers on Saturday while the Capitals fell by a 4-1 score at home against the Sharks on Sunday. Note that the 'over' is 12-4 with Carolina coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 34-18 with Washington seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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02-14-23 | Buffalo +5.5 v. Ohio | Top | 61-85 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Buffalo in the first meeting between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to back the Bulls again in Tuesday's rematch in Ohio. While Buffalo has been involved in its share of track meets this season, I believe it is a better defensive team than most give it credit for. The Bulls got off to a terrible start at that end of the floor in non-conference play but have certainly turned things around over the last month or so, limiting eight of their last 12 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. That's despite 10 of those 12 foes hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Of course, the Buffalo offense is going to be there. The Bulls rank 163rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). They've faced the 118th most difficult schedule in the country while Ohio has gone against the 190th toughest slate of opponents (also according to KenPom). I mentioned that Buffalo has been tougher defensively than most give it credit for - I feel the opposite is true for Ohio. The Bobcats have allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down at least 28 field goals. They've been consistently allowing opponents to get well into the 20's in terms of made field goals despite holding seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Offensively, the Bobcats have admittedly been red hot lately, making good on 30 or more field goals in four of their last seven games. Of course three of those 30+ field goal performances came against three of the MAC's worst teams in Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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02-14-23 | Miami-OH v. Toledo UNDER 157 | 71-89 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Toledo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams just met on January 31st in a game that totalled 159 points. It's worth noting that both teams shot the lights out in that game with Miami-Ohio connecting on 31-of-58 field goal attempts and Toledo knocking down 33-of-64. It was a similar story in the Redhawks and Rockets previous matchup last February in Toledo as Miami-Ohio made good on a ridiculous 14 three-pointers (it averages six made threes per game on the road this season) while the Rockets knocked down 35-of-65 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that while Toledo does play fast, it doesn't play any faster at home compared to on the road and I do think Miami-Ohio can at least slow the Rockets down to a certain extent, noting that the Redhawks have limited opponents to just 55 FG attempts per contest on the road this season and check in having impressively limited their foes to fewer than 60 FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 games overall. While Miami-Ohio doesn't rate out well defensively this season according to KenPom, it has played better lately, holding 10 of its last 13 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals and four of its last six to 26 or less. Offensively, the Redhawks are once again sputtering, having made good on 24, 24, 31, 22, 26 and 20 field goals over their last six contests. The lone outlier over that stretch came against Toledo but we've seen the Rockets right the ship defensively since, yielding just 20, 27 and 26 made field goals over their last three games, despite allowing 65 or more FG attempts in two of those three contests. After knocking down 30 or more field goals in four of five games from January 17th to 31st, Toledo has made good on just 28, 26 and 24 field goals over its last three games. While you would have to go back three meetings to find the last 'under' result in this series, we haven't seen three straight meetings go 'over' the total (or push) since 2016-17. Take the under (8*). |
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02-13-23 | Wizards v. Warriors OVER 232.5 | 126-135 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I think we see a 'slingshot' effect from the Warriors offense here after they failed to make the most of their wealth of scoring opportunities in a 109-103 loss to the Lakers on Saturday. Here, they're in a prime bounce-back spot against a Wizards squad that has allowed 42 or more made field goals in eight of their last 10 games (the only two occasions where they didn't over that stretch came against struggling offenses in the Pelicans and Hornets - both of those teams managed to get off 92+ field goal attempts). Note also that five of the Wizards last eight opponents have hoisted up at least 92 field goal attempts so they've shown no ability, or interest, in slowing the pace. Prior to Saturday's game, the Warriors had made good on 43, 45, 56 and 46 field goals over their last four contests. They've gotten off at least 90 FG attempts in six of their last eight games overall and figure to stay aggressive here off consecutive losses. Defensively, the Warriors have left a lot to be desired. They check in having allowed at least 40 made field goals in an incredible 19 of their last 20 games. They're just one game removed from allowing Portland to shoot north of 55% from the field. The last time these two teams met we saw 245 total points in a Warriors road victory in mid-January. We're actually working with a lower posted total this time around and that has a lot to do with who isn't playing for the Warriors right now (Steph Curry is sidelined until after the All-Star break and Andrew Wiggins is questionable to play due to an ankle injury). Take the over (8*). |
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02-13-23 | Red Wings v. Canucks -115 | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vancouver over Detroit at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Canucks get a quick revenge opportunity here after dropping a 5-2 decision in Detroit on Saturday afternoon. Vancouver can't be too disappointed by a 1-3 eastern road trip that also saw it lose in overtime in New Jersey, by a single goal against the Rangers in Manhattan and secure a wild 6-5 win on Long Island. Detroit checks in off consecutive victories and having won four of its last six games overall. That actually puts it in an awful situation here, however, noting that it has gone a miserable 1-13 when coming off four or five wins in its last six contests over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 goals in that spot. While the Red Wings have been playing well lately, most of their success has come at home. Note that Detroit is just 9-14 on the road this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals along the way. Take Vancouver (8*). |
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02-13-23 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina UNDER 156.5 | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. This total is about as high as you would expect in this matchup, noting that we saw a closing total of 154 in a game that totalled only 142 points in the most recent meeting between the two teams last season. While North Carolina is always going to be known for its offense, it can play some defense as well. The Tar Heels have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals while also limiting six of their last nine foes to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. North Carolina checks in ranked a respectable 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Hurricanes are admittedly red hot offensively right now, having made good on more than 30 field goals in three of their last four games. However, their margin for error hasn't been all that large as they've gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in four of their last six games and 60 or less in eight of their last 10 contests overall. Miami hasn't played its best defensive basketball lately, yielding 28 or more made field goals in three of its last four games with Saturday's poor performance at that end of the floor against Louisville perhaps serving as a low-water mark (it allowed the Cardinals to knock down 33-of-57 field goal attempts). The Canes have managed to limit their opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, however, allowing just 51, 59, 54 and 57 FG attempts over their last four games. That type of discipline defensively would undoubtedly serve them well in an underdog role against the Tar Heels here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. As impressive as the Eagles have been from wire-to-wire this season I'm not sure the casual NFL viewer/follower realizes just how good this team is from top-to-bottom. There's been a lot of talk about how the Eagles have got off easy this season, facing a lighter schedule than most, even if the truth is they've gone against a very comparable slate of opponents to that of the Chiefs, for example. With QB Jalen Hurts healthy, the Eagles have been virtually unstoppable on offense and the same goes for the defense from a health perspective. When at full strength, as is the case right now, there's no more talented defense in the NFL even going position-by-position. Yes, the Chiefs legacy continues to grow with the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce the true faces of the franchise through it all. I'm concerned about just how banged-up they are, even with the bye week, heading into this contest. On so many occasions, Kansas City has been forced to rely upon Patrick Mahomes heroics (and the exploits of his supporting cast). Yes, the defense has come up big at times as well, most notably late in the Divisional Round win over the Jaguars, but I don't put that unit on nearly the same plane as that of the Eagles. Offensively, the Eagles have an incredibly versatile attack that can beat you in a number of different ways. The emergence of second-year WR DeVonta Smith has made them that much more explosive, and I think the production of TE Dallas Goedert gets overshadowed as well. The same goes for RB Miles Sanders, who is often afforded gaping holes to run through thanks to an all-world offensive line. I could go on, but the fact is, the Eagles have been the best team in the NFL all season long, and as difficult as it is to fade Reid, Mahomes and company, I'm willing to do it at what I consider to be a short number here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Kansas City and Philadelphia at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the first half 'under' in last year's Super Bowl and while the match up is of course much different this time around, featuring the high-profile offenses of the Chiefs and Eagles, I actually believe that serves to provide us value with the 'under' once again. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-10 in the first half in the Chiefs last 34 games following a bye week, with that situation producing an average total of just 20.6 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-10 in the first half in the Eagles last 35 games after a bye week, leading to an average total of only 20.2 points in that spot. Simply by nature of today's NFL, I don't think either of these defenses are getting enough attention or respect. Most of the talk in the two weeks leading up to this game surrounds Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, perhaps rightfully so. However, the two defenses have proven their worth time and time again this season and certainly in the playoffs. In fact, the Chiefs enter this game having given up a grand total of just 19 first half points in their last three games. The Eagles have been even better in that respect, allowing only seven first half points in their last three contests. Take the first half under (8*). |
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02-12-23 | Marist +10 v. Siena | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Marist plus the points over Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Red Foxes in this Sunday MAAC matchup. Siena took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 15 points back on January 29th. Marist had an absolutely dreadful game from beyond the arc, knocking down only 2-of-18 three-point attempts. Keep in mind, it averages seven made threes per game on the season. In that previous meeting, Siena also got to the free throw line 13 more times, making good on 10 of those attempts. These are disparities I just don't see repeating themselves in Sunday's rematch. Marist has held five of its last six opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts, giving it a path to effectively shorten this contest as a large underdog on Sunday. The only occasion where it allowed more than that number, it won by eight points against Canisius. Offensively, the Red Foxes managed to get off 61 FG attempts against St. Peter's on Friday, but simply couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 19. Prior to that they had made good on 20 or more field goals in five straight games. Here, they'll face a Siena squad that has yielded at least 20 made field goals in 18 consecutive games, despite each of its last 11 opponents getting off fewer than 60 FG attempts. Offensively, the Saints have been limited to 52 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 22 or fewer field goals in all four of those contests. Take Marist (10*). |
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02-12-23 | Sharks +1.5 v. Capitals | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Washington at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the insurance goal with the Sharks on Sunday as they conclude their long road trip in Washington. San Jose has been playing some of its best hockey of the season which I realize isn't saying a whole lot. The Sharks check in off a 4-1 loss to the Panthers in Florida but that was their first loss by more than a single goal in five games. On this trip, they've won games in Pittsburgh and Tampa. You would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Capitals won a game by more than a single goal. They're in a prime letdown spot here after securing a 2-1 win over arguably the league's best team in Boston yesterday. Note that the Caps are just 13-20 when playing at home off a win over the last two seasons and 9-16 when hosting a game off two victories in their last three contests over the same stretch, which is the case here, outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 27-24 after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.1 goals on average in that situation. There's no intimidation factor at play here as the Sharks are 2-1 in their last three trips to Washington with the lone loss coming by a single goal. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (8*). |
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02-12-23 | Quinnipiac v. Canisius OVER 144.5 | 65-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Quinnipiac and Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled a whopping 169 points and while we're working with a slightly higher posted total in this rematch, I believe it will still prove too low. Quinnipiac has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in six of its last seven games overall and it should be able to make the most of those scoring opportunities here noting that Canisius' opponents have been 'filling it up', making good on 33, 30, 25, 26 and 33 field goals over its last six contests. The Golden Griffins are coming off a poor offensive showing in a blowout loss to Iona on Friday as they knocked down only 20-of-53 field goal attempts. Prior to that they had gotten off more than 60 FG attempts in four straight games, making good on 25 or more field goals in all four of those contests. Quinnipiac has allowed 26 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests - the only opponent it held down over that stretch was Fairfield, one of, if not the worst offensive team in the MAAC. Take the over (8*). |
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02-11-23 | BYU +12 v. Gonzaga | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU plus the points over Gonzaga at 10 pm et on Saturday. We got precisely the results we wanted in these two teams' most recent games earlier this week. BYU suffered a stunning double-digit loss at Pepperdine while Gonzaga rolled to a blowout win over San Francisco. That sets the Bulldogs up as a big double-digit favorite against the Cougars here. Note that BYU nearly staged the upset against the mighty Zags at home earlier this season, dropping a 75-74 decision as a +6.5-point underdog. Despite the loss on Thursday, BYU does enter this game playing well offensively - better than it was the last time it faced the Zags. The Cougars have made good on 35, 29 and 29 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, they've held six straight opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Gonzaga shot the lights out against San Francisco last time out, knocking down a whopping 34 field goals. The Bulldogs haven't made good on 30 or more field goals in consecutive games over their last six contests. Defensively, Gonzaga has allowed 27 or more made field goals in four of its last six games with four of its last five foes hoisting up at least 60 FG attempts. In other words, the scoring opportunities should be there for the underdog Cougars on Saturday. Take BYU (10*). |
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02-11-23 | Colorado v. Utah UNDER 137 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Utah at 10 pm et on Saturday. We won with Colorado in its most recent game as it shot the lights out in the second half in an eventual blowout win over Stanford last Sunday. The Buffaloes aren't exactly known for their offense, noting they rank 141st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Prior to last Sunday's breakout performance, Colorado had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in seven of its previous eight games. The going won't be easy on the road against a Utah squad that ranks a respectable 30th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Speaking of that metric, Colorado checks in 19th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Buffaloes have limited six straight opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts with only three of those opponents getting north of 50. Utah, like Colorado, has been inconsistent offensively. It could only connect on 21-of-57 field goal attempts against a bad California defense last time out. The Utes have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games with 25 being their high-water mark over that stretch. Both meetings between these two teams last season were surprisingly high-scoring, getting into the 150's despite closing totals in the high-130's. I believe those results are helping play a factor in keeping this total a little higher than it should be on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-23 | Nuggets v. Hornets OVER 235.5 | 119-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a track meet as the Nuggets lick their wounds following a loss in Orlando two nights ago and head to Charlotte, where they'll face a reeling Hornets squad on the second of back-to-backs. The Hornets have lost six straight games, with the 'under' going 5-1 over that stretch. We've certainly seen signs of life from Charlotte offensively, however, noting that it has knocked down exactly 45 field goals in two of its last three games. The Hornets are certainly pushing the pace, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. I'm confident we'll see them find offensive success here, noting that the Nuggets have allowed 40 or more made field goals in seven straight games and 47+ in two of their last three contests. Offensively, Denver has been inconsistent, largely due to key contributors in and out of the lineup due to 'load management' and otherwise. Here, we find the Nuggets coming off an off day and well-positioned to feast against a non-existent Hornets defense that has allowed seven consecutive opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Just last night, the Hornets held the Celtics to 89 field goal attempts but still allowed a whopping 127 points. In fact, Charlotte has given up 114 or more points in seven straight games. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached 'only' 234 total points but that was a situation where Denver was able to 'manage' the game as a -9-point home favorite. Here, I expect the Nuggets to be far more aggressive from the opening tip to the final buzzer in what sets up as a high-scoring affair in Charlotte. Take the over (8*). |
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02-11-23 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in the Rangers high-scoring victory over the Kraken last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. New York has now seen a season-high three straight games go 'over' the total, which is affording us a fairly generous total on Saturday in Carolina. Note that the 'under' is 21-10 with the Rangers playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in a home victory over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes will be playing for the first time in 10 days following an extended All-Star break. The 'under' is 29-17 with the Canes playing on home ice off a win over the last two seasons, which is the situation here, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals. Finally, we'll note that the Rangers give up just 2.3 goals per game on the road this season while the Canes have held the opposition to 2.7 goals per contest at home. Expect goals to come at a premium on Saturday night in Raleigh. Take the under (8*). |
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02-10-23 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 241.5 | Top | 138-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. While the number may look sizable at first glance, I'm not sure they can set this total high enough. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against both the Thunder and Blazers lately. Oklahoma City checks in having allowed 45 or more made field goals in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, Portland has seen three straight opponents knock down at least 46 field goals. The good news is, both offenses are humming as well. The Thunder have put up 120 points or more in four of their last seven games and have made good on 56, 44 and 49 field goals over their last three games. They're pushing the pace at every opportunity as well, getting off more than 90 field goal attempts in each of their last five contests. It's a similar story for the Blazers. Apart from a brief lull against the Bucks earlier this week, they've knocked down 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While dealing away Josh Hart leaves a bit of a void offensively, that should only mean more shot attempts for the red hot Damian Lillard. You certainly don't get better defensively after dealing away a guy like Hart. You only have to go back two meetings in this series to see the last time Oklahoma City and Portland combined to put up more than 240 total points and four matchups to find the last time they got into the 260's. Take the over (10*). |
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02-10-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen consecutive Rangers home games go easily 'over' the total since the All-Star break, with New York securing one-goal victories over Calgary and Vancouver earlier this week. Here, I think we're well-positioned for a lower-scoring affair as the Blueshirts host the struggling Kraken. New York has scored nine goals (eight in regulation time) in its last two contests but I'm not sure that type of offensive production is sustainable, noting that it is still averaging just 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season. Save for a six-goal outburst against the Canucks on January 25th, Seattle has had a tough time finding the back of the net lately, held to three goals or less in seven of its last nine games and two goals or less in six of those contests. This doesn't figure to be an ideal breakout spot given the Kraken have scored just six goals in three all-time meetings with the Rangers. In fact, all three previous matchups between these non-conference foes have produced five total goals or fewer including a 3-2 Kraken victory on home ice earlier this season. Note that the 'under' is 15-5 with the Rangers playing at home after scoring three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 23-12 with New York playing at home after winning four of its last five contests over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 5.3 goals in that situation. Finally, the 'under' has cashed all five times the Rangers have come off consecutive 'over' results this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-23 | Marist v. St. Peter's UNDER 124.5 | Top | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and St. Peter's at 7 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams saw just 118 points scored in a narrow St. Peter's road victory. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around than we saw in that mid-January matchup and it has a lot to do with the fact that both of these teams are coming off consecutive 'over' results. I expect those 'over' streaks to come to a halt on Friday. Marist has been pushing the pace a little more than we've been accustomed to seeing lately but that's been largely game-script dependent as it has often been playing from behind by considerable margins. Note that the Red Foxes check in ranked 336th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 278th in adjusted tempo despite only facing the 341st toughest slate of opponents this season (all according to KenPom). Things won't get any easier here noting that St. Peter's has been effective in severely limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 50 field goal attempts in an incredible seven straight games entering Friday's contest. Last time out, the Peacocks simply ran into a hot shooting Rider squad in an 81-62 loss. Prior to allowing the Broncs to knock down 26 field goals in that game, they had held six consecutive foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. It's been another story offensively as St. Peter's continues to struggle. It has topped out at 23 made field goals over its last six games and that came in a contest where it shot better than 52% from the field. The Peacocks rank a miserable 327th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 343rd in adjusted tempo. Going back to that first meeting between these two teams this season, it reached only 118 total points despite the two teams combining to shoot 51 free throws (making 38). Note that on the season, these two squads average just 21-of-30 combined from the charity stripe. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-23 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Long Beach State OVER 145 | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
Big West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cal-Santa Barbara and Long Beach State at 11 pm et on Thursday. Santa Barbara plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation yet checks into this game on the heels of four straight 'over' results, including a stunning loss as a double-digit road favorite at Cal State-Fullerton last time out. It's an interesting contrast when it comes to the Gauchos as they play slow but are ultra-efficient offensively. Here, I expect them to get plenty of good looks against a Long Beach State squad that plays at the second-fastest tempo in the country, only ranking behind Alabama in terms of adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The 49ers enter this game off six straight wins, fortunate that a number of their recent opponents haven't been able to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities. Long Beach State has allowed six of its last seven opponents to get off at least 62 field goal attempts. Last time out, it yielded a whopping 70 FG attempts against Cal-Irvine in a game that reached 181 total points. As I mentioned, the 49ers like to play fast offensively, hoisting up more than 70 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests. They've made good on 28 or more field goals in six of their last seven games overall. Cal-Santa Barbara has faced a slew of weaker Big West squads lately, favored by double-digits in four of its last five games. While the Gauchos are a top-100 team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom), that has had something to do with the fact they've only faced the 305th most difficult schedule in the country. It's interesting to note that Santa Barbara has been held under 70 points in each of their last three games, matching their longest such streak of the season. A date with Long Beach State should provide ample opportunity to bounce back in what projects as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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02-09-23 | Arizona v. California +19 | 85-62 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on California plus the points over Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday. While California has gone a miserable 3-20 straight-up this season it has found plenty of pointspread success. The Golden Bears started the season with five straight ATS losses (none of those defeats came by more than 10 points) but since then have gone a respectable 10-8 ATS. Here, they catch Arizona off three consecutive ATS wins. The Wildcats have been red hot offensively but I can't help but feel they get slowed here noting that the Bears rank 356th out of 363 Division I teams in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). There's a path for Cal to effectively shorten this game and keep things reasonably competitive, especially noting it went to Tucson and lost by 'only' 13 points against the Wildcats earlier this season. While Cal's offense has been dreadful, it has faced the 27th most difficult slate of defensive opponents in the country this season (again according to KenPom). It will undoubtedly face a tough challenge against Arizona here as well, although there is hope as the Wildcats tend to give up their share of scoring opportunities with nine of their last 11 opponents getting off at least 60 field goal attempts. Here, we'll note that Arizona is a long-term 38-59 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Cal has been outscored by just 4.2 points on average the last 15 times it has come off four consecutive games in which it scored 65 points or less, which is the situation it is in on Thursday. Take California (8*). |
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02-09-23 | Bucks v. Lakers OVER 239 | 115-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. This total is on the rise, and for good reason. The Lakers made a big splash in a three-way trade with the Grizzlies and Timberwolves last night although their reinforcements aren't expected to suit up until Saturday against Golden State. For Thursday, the absence of Russell Westbrook (he's off to Utah) leaves the Lakers in a tougher spot defensively than offensively in my opinion. Westbrook is actually quietly having one of his best defensive seasons even if his offensive performance is brought into question on a regular basis. The Lakers enter this game on a roll offensively having made good on 48, 42, 45 and 49 field goals over their last four games. They should relish the opportunity to push the pace against a Bucks squad that has shown no ability (or interest) in slowing the tempo, allowing 91 or more field goal attempts in five straight games. Of course, the Bucks can score with the best of them. They've knocked down at least 43 field goals in five of their last six games. Here, they'll face a Lakers squad that has allowed 45, 44, 45, 52 and 49 made field goals over their last five games. In the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season we saw a whopping 262 total points scored. While we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, I believe it's warranted. Take the over (8*). |
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02-09-23 | Bucks v. Lakers +6.5 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Milwaukee at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a flyer on the Lakers here as they catch a generous helping of points against the Bucks on Thursday night. Everything went right for Milwaukee on Monday as it cruised to a 19-point win over the Blazers in Portland. The Bucks were certainly fortunate that Portland had an off night shooting as the Blazers actually got off 91 field goal attempts in that contest. Milwaukee is still giving up far too many scoring opportunities for my liking, allowing each of its last five opponents to hoist up at least 91 field goal attempts. Here, they'll face a Lakers squad that brings solid offensive form to the table having made good on 48, 42, 45 and 49 field goals over their last four games. Note that the Bucks enter this game off consecutive ATS wins which is notable as they haven't strung together three straight ATS victories since the first week of November. The Bucks are a long-term 113-166 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive straight-up wins, as is the case here. Despite their lopsided win in Portland on Monday, they're still just 14-12 SU on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.4 points. The Lakers are winless ATS over their last three games. That's their longest ATS losing streak since dropping the cash in five straight games from December 18th to 25th. While they're just 13-13 SU at home this season they've outscored opponents by 2.3 points on average here at Crypto.com Arena. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-09-23 | Nuggets v. Magic +6.5 | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Denver at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. We got the results we wanted two nights ago to set up this play on Thursday. The Nuggets avenged a loss in Minnesota two nights earlier with a resounding 146-112 win over the Timberwolves at home (they jumped ahead 49-19 after the first quarter) while the Magic dropped a 102-98 loss at home against the surging Knicks. It's important not to disregard the Magic, however, as this is a young team that is learning to win, having notched 10 victories in their last 14 games. Incredibly by today's NBA standards, Orlando has held eight of its last nine opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the only occasion where an opponent did get over that number, the Magic still won by seven points in Minnesota. The Magic are coming off a subpar offensive performance against a good Knicks defense two nights ago but it's worth noting they haven't been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games since December 3rd and 5th. The Nuggets are likely to re-tool prior to Thursday's trade deadline in an effort to 'keep up with the Joneses' in the Western Conference, which could also help our cause in terms of closing line value here. Here, we'll note that Denver enters this contest having allowed six straight opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. Remember, when these two teams last met in Denver on January 15th, the Nuggets won by only three points as -10.5-point favorites. Take Orlando (8*). |
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02-09-23 | Avalanche v. Lightning -114 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Colorado at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Lightning have obviously had this game circled since getting dispatched in six games in last year's Stanley Cup Final. Not only that but the Bolts enter this game on a season-long two-game losing streak. I'm confident we'll see them bounce back here as they catch the Avalanche coming off two losses in their last three games themselves. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 33-7 when playing at home off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. Better still, they're 18-2 when playing at home off two losses in their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. Under head coach Jon Cooper, Tampa Bay has posted a 167-94 record when coming off a game in which it allowed four goals or more, which is also the situation here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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02-08-23 | Wolves v. Jazz OVER 236 | 143-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring track meet between these Northwest Division rivals on Wednesday night. Minnesota got crushed by Denver last night. The lopsided nature of that contest actually helps the Timberwolves cause here as no starter played more than 20 minutes. Here, we'll note that Minnesota has been the picture of consistency offensively, scoring at least 110 points in 16 straight games entering Wednesday's contest. Utah has been held to 108 and 111 points in suffering consecutive losses over its last two games. I'm not one bit worried about the Jazz offense though. They're just two games removed from a 131-point performance in a home win over the Raptors. They've scored at least 120 points in five of their last nine games. Utah has faced Minnesota only twice at full strength (or close to it) this season and scored 132 and 126 points in those two contests (it was missing both Lauri Markannen and Collin Sexton in the other meeting - a 118-108 loss). I think both teams enter this game knowing they'll need to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters in order to secure a win. Take the over (8*). |
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02-08-23 | Florida v. Alabama OVER 147.5 | Top | 69-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Alabama at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Despite playing at the fasted tempo in the country this season (according to KenPom), Alabama has posted just two 'over' results in its last 10 games. Each of the Crimson Tide's last two contests have stayed 'under' the total. That's helped set us up with a very reasonable total on Wednesday as the Tide host the Florida Gators. Florida checks in off a 72-67 loss at Kentucky on Saturday. Both of these teams tend to give up a ton of scoring opportunities with Florida having allowed at least 60 field goal attempts in seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. Alabama has yielded more than 60 field goal attempts to its opponents in 16 of its last 18 contests. While both squads rate out well in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (again according to KenPom), I believe the door is open for both offenses to go off on Wednesday. Florida has been held under 70 points in three straight games entering this contest - its longest such streak of the season. It did show some signs of life offensively last time out, knocking down 23 field goals in a tough spot at Kentucky. After facing a pair of down-trodden squads in Vandy and LSU over its last two games, I believe Alabama could be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here, noting that prior to holding those two foes under 20 made field goals, the Crimson Tide had allowed seven of their previous eight opponents to knock down more than 20 field goals. Offensively, Alabama is elite. The Crimson Tide continue to 'fill it up', making good on at least 25 field goals in an incredible 15 of their last 16 games overall. The Gators were locked-in defensively earlier in the campaign but have since sagged in that regard, allowing eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down at least 22 field goals - a number Alabama is sure to eclipse with ease here. The pace will be there, whether this total proves high enough will depend on whether the two teams can make the most of their scoring opportunities. I'm confident they will, noting that last year's lone meeting reached 153 total points despite both teams shooting worse than 43% from the field. Take the over (10*). |
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02-08-23 | Spurs v. Raptors OVER 234 | Top | 98-112 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 0 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. This one has the potential to get ugly fast for the Spurs. However, rather than lay the points with the Raptors, we'll play the 'over' in this spot as I am confident San Antonio can punch back for stretches in this game. The Spurs are the worst defensive team we've seen in the NBA in quite some time. They enter this game in their absolute worst form of the season having allowed six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 46 field goals with five of those foes hitting 50 or more, including their most recent opponent, the Chicago Bulls. On the road this season, they're allowing a ridiculous average of 47 made field goals per game, leading to just north of 125 points per contest. The Raptors enter this game playing fast. They've hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in seven of their last eight games. They've made good on 40 or more field goals in 11 straight contests. On the flip side, the Raptors have been doing a good job of slowing their opponents down. I'm just not sure they'll need to given the wealth of scoring opportunities they're likely to have at the offensive end of the floor in this one. Note that Toronto did hold an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals for the first time in six games on Sunday in Memphis. Of course, that was with the Grizzlies missing a number of key contributors including Ja Morant, not to mention the fact that Memphis got off just 78 field goal attempts in the game (they knocked down 38 of them). Should the pace tick up at all in this one, as I suspect it will, the potential is there for the Spurs to go off offensively. Despite San Antonio's lack of success from a win-loss perspective, it does enter this game having made good on 40 or more field goals in five straight contests and 27 of their last 30 games overall. Note that both of these teams are coming off an off day (two in the case of Toronto) and will also have the day off on Thursday. No reason for either to hold anything back in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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02-08-23 | Pacers +7 v. Heat | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We got the result we wanted from the Pacers on Sunday to set up this play as they fell in blowout fashion at home against the Cavs. I don't think Miami has any business laying so many points at home, noting that while it has gone 17-9 on this floor this season, it has only outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 points. This particular series has been as close as it gets in three previous meetings this season, with those three contests decided by a grand total of 10 points, with Indiana winning twice, including a 111-108 victory here in Miami on December 23rd. Here, we'll note that the Pacers are a long-term 54-32 ATS when coming off a home loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take Indiana (8*). |
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02-07-23 | Thunder +7.5 v. Lakers | 133-130 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this bounce-back spot sets up for the Thunder as they come off last night's drubbing at the hands of the Warriors in San Francisco. Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is just one game removed from a 153-point explosion in a rout of the Rockets on Saturday. Being brought back to Earth by the defending champion Warriors might not have been the worst thing for the young Thunder. Los Angeles has been playing some of its best basketball but is in a bit of a tough spot here, returning home following a five-game road trip, noting that it is just 13-12, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.5 points here this season. With no player seeing 30 or more minutes of action last night, I'm not as worried about the back-to-back spot for the Thunder. This is a team that has been outscored by just 3.3 points on average on the road this season and I expect them to respond favorably following last night's blowout defeat. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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02-07-23 | Oilers v. Red Wings +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams went into the All-Star break heading in opposite directions with the Oilers coming off a 7-3 thrashing of the Blackhawks and the Red Wings dropping a 2-0 decision against the Islanders. Here, I'll gladly grab the insurance goal with Detroit at home. Note that Edmonton is just 13-18 when coming off six or seven wins in its last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goal in that situation. This season, the Oilers have gone 7-11 when coming off a win by two or more goals, only managing to outscore opponents by 0.1 goal on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Red Wings are 12-7 when playing on home ice after being held to a goal or less in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.1 goal in that spot. The home team went 2-0 in this series last season with both teams tallying a total of nine goals. Take Detroit +1.5 goals (8*). |
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02-07-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh OVER 138.5 | Top | 57-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams fizzled this season as Pittsburgh rolled to a 75-54 road win on January 18th. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Louisville has shown some signs of life offensively of late, knocking down 25 or more field goals in three of its last four games. The Cardinals had their share of opportunities in that first meeting with Pitt but simply couldn't convert, making good on just 19 field goals. It's not as if Pitt is a defensive juggernaut. The Panthers have allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate last time out that North Carolina had an off night shooting, as the Tar Heels actually got off a whopping 66 field goal attempts, but could only hit 23 of them. Here, I'm just not convinced we see a peak performance from the Pitt defense against an opponent it has already manhandled this season. On the flip side, the Panthers figure to take advantage of an awful Louisville defense that has seemingly gotten even looser lately, allowing three straight opponents to get off more than 60 FG attempts. Pitt enters this contest having made good on 28, 26 and 25 field goals over its last three games and has hoisted up 55 or more FG attempts in seven of its last eight overall. Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-23 | Spurs +11 v. Bulls | Top | 104-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are in uncharted territory right now having reeled off four straight home wins (their longest previous home win streak this season lasted only three games). I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown on Monday, however, as they host the lowly Spurs, who haven't tasted victory since January 17th. This one might not be as straight-forward as it looks on paper for Chicago, noting that San Antonio has actually taken two of three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 129-124 victory as a five-point underdog back in late October. While the Spurs enter this game riding an eight-game losing streak (seven straight losses ATS), they have shown signs of life lately, knocking down 48, 42, 48 and 52 field goals over their last four games. In their last five contests playing with at least a day's rest on the road, they've lost by three in New York, eight and six (in a two-game set) in Memphis, by 20 in Portland and by nine in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). So it's not as if they've been getting their doors blown off away from home. Defensively, San Antonio is arguably the league's worst team and it certainly doesn't head to Chicago in solid form in that regard. With that being said, the Bulls are certainly poised for some regression offensively. Chicago has actually gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games, but managed to knock down 41 or more of those shots on three occasions over that stretch. I don't think the numbers add up to extended pointspread success. Here, we'll note that the Bulls are a long-term 112-154 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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02-06-23 | Green Bay v. Wisc-Milwaukee OVER 142 | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday. The first meeting between these two in-state rivals totalled 148 points back in December. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around as a result, but I believe it's warranted. Green Bay enters this contest off four straight 'under' results. The Phoenix have shot poorly over that stretch - in fact, they've been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four straight games, their longest such streak of the season. I do think the pace alone should get them over the hump here, however, noting that Wisconsin-Milwaukee ranks 17th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Panthers have allowed 16 consecutive opponents to knock down more than 20 field goals. Their last game snapped a stretch of nine straight contests in which they allowed 62 or more field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the pitiful Phoenix made good on 23 field goals and scored 67 points in the first meeting between these teams this season. The Panthers were fortunate to secure a 72-69 win over IUPUI last time out. They got off a whopping 69 FG attempts in that contest but could only hit 26 of them. I certainly anticipate them improving on that shooting percentage here, noting that Green Bay ranks a miserable 361st in the nation (that's third-to-last) in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-23 | Duke v. Miami-FL OVER 145.5 | 59-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Miami at 7 pm et on Monday. When these two teams last met on January 21st, they combined to score just 134 points. We're dealing with a lower posted total for this rematch and I believe it will prove too low. The pace was certainly there for a much higher-scoring affair in the first meeting. Duke got off 62 field goal attempts while Miami countered with 63. Both teams ended up shooting poorly with the Blue Devils knocking down 25 field goals and the Hurricanes making good on only 22 in a narrow two-point defeat. It's worth noting that Miami has been more efficient offensively while also playing at a slightly faster pace at home compared to on the road this season. The Canes enter this contest on an offensive tear having knocked down 31, 26, 35 and 26 field goals over their last four games, despite getting off 58 or fewer field goal attempts in three of those tilts. Duke has had little success (or interest) in slowing its opponents' pace lately, allowing 63 or more FG attempts in three of its last five games. Meanwhile, Miami's opponents have been afforded plenty of good looks, knocking down 25 or more field goals in an incredible 10 straight games. Take the over (8*). |
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02-05-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 238.5 | Top | 98-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. PLEASE NOTE: I released this play in the early morning hours when the total was in the high-230's. With the news of Jokic, Murray and Gordon possibly all sitting for the Nuggets, it has dropped considerably. I do still recommend the play at the current number, albeit with a lower confidence level. We just missed with the 'under' in the Nuggets rout of the Hawks last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Denver hits the road for a back-to-back spot at Minnesota on Sunday. Last night's game ended a streak of 11 straight games in which the Nuggets held opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The lopsided nature of that affair against Atlanta certainly contributed to Denver's relatively loose defensive play. 'Fat and happy' off three straight wins, scoring 122 or more points in all three contests, I'm not convinced we'll see a peak offensive performance from Denver again on Sunday. Minnesota will certainly be focused on tightening things up defensively after allowing Orlando to go off for 127 points in an 'upset' home loss on Friday. Prior to that contest, the Timberwolves had seen seven straight games stay 'under' the total and the 'under' remains 18-13 in their home games this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-05-23 | Mt. St. Mary's +12 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Mount St. Mary's plus the points over Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday. With Mount St. Mary's coming off a 30-point rout at Iona and Quinnipiac winning by 15 points against Fairfield on Friday, most will likely be looking to lay the points with the Bobcats at home on Sunday. I'll go the other way, however, noting that Quinnipiac checks in a long-term 10-24 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. Mount St. Mary's has held four straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts (which just happens to be the average number of FG attempts it has allowed per game this season) and can effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday and ultimately keep the Bobcats within arm's reach. Quinnipiac has allowed four straight opponents to hoist up 60 or more FG attempts. While Mount St. Mary's is no offensive juggernaut, it does have a fairly solid floor when it comes to offensive production, knocking down 20 or more field goals in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest (that's notable given the slow pace it plays at). Take Mount St. Mary's (10*). |
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02-04-23 | Oregon State +19.5 v. Arizona | 52-84 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Arizona at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. I simply feel the Wildcats are laying too many points in this rematch of their 86-74 road win over Oregon State back on January 12th. Few teams play slower than the Beavers and I do think there's a path for them to keep this game competitive on Saturday in Tucson. It's certainly been a trying campaign for Oregon State but it has also faced the 56th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom. The Beavers have mustered little offense but do rank a respectable 126th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Unlike the last time they faced Arizona, they do enter this game in terrific defensive form, having held their last four opponents to just 18, 22, 21 and 22 made field goals. The last time they faced Arizona they allowed the Wildcats to shoot 32-of-61 from the field - both of those numbers represent season-highs for Oregon State in Pac-12 play - yet still lost by 'only' 12 points. Of note, the Beavers got off 60 field goal attempts of their own in that contest - matching a season-high for them in conference play - and here they'll face a Wildcats squad that has allowed 60 or more FG attempts in nine of their last 10 games (the only game in which they didn't they won by just five points against Washington State - the blueprint from that contest could certainly be used by Oregon State here). In other words, the Beavers will undoubtedly have their share of scoring opportunities here and I'm willing to back them, while also fading a Wildcats squad that is coming off five straight wins and consecutive 90+ point performances. Take Oregon State (8*). |
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02-04-23 | Hawks v. Nuggets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 108-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Hawks are in a tough spot here, playing the second of back-to-backs and for the third time in the last four nights (in three different cities) as they continue their road trip in the high altitude of Denver on Saturday. Atlanta has been shooting the lights out, knocking down 44 or more field goals in five straight games. It also got off more than 90 field goal attempts in four of those five contests, however, a number I believe it will have a tough time approaching here. The Nuggets check in having held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They certainly haven't been at their best defensively during their current 3-0 'over' streak, allowing 46, 42 and 43 made field goals but again, I like the spot they catch the Hawks in here. While Atlanta is known for being extremely vulnerable defensively, the addition of Dejounte Murray has certainly helped its cause in that regard this season. The Hawks enter this contest having held eight of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. In the back half of their last six back-to-back situations, they've limited their foes to 89, 87, 83, 83, 86 and 83 FG attempts with the 'under' going 4-2 along the way (only one of those games went 'over' the total we're working with tonight). In the first meeting between these two teams this season both sides actually shot exceptionally well (Denver was 45-of-85 and Atlanta was 49-of-88) yet that game still totalled 'only' 226 points. Take the under (10*). |
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02-04-23 | Syracuse v. Boston College OVER 138.5 | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Syracuse and Boston College at 5 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results earlier in the week. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as they do battle in a rematch of a New Year's Eve game that reached 144 total points. Syracuse enters this game shooting well, having knocked down 30, 28, 29, 31, 29, 23 and 24 field goals in its last seven games. The two outliers - coming in its last two contests - came in games where the Orange were held to fewer than 50 field goal attempts. I don't see this game being played at such a snail's pace, however. Note that the Orange have allowed six of their last seven opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Boston College yields an average of 59 FG attempts to its opponents here in Chestnut Hill this season. Syracuse isn't an awful defensive team by any means but you would have to go all the way back to December 10th (against an awful Georgetown team) to find the last time it held an opponent to fewer than 23 made field goals. Of the Orange's last seven opponents, six have knocked down at least 25 field goals. It's a similar story for Boston College. The Eagles were fortunate that Clemson couldn't hit its shots last time out, connecting on only 16-of-52 FG attempts in a 62-54 Boston College victory. Prior to that, the Eagles had allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on at least 26 field goals with three of those foes connecting on 30 or more. Offensively, the Eagles are anything but a juggernaut but they're playing some of their best basketball right now and I do think they can give Syracuse a run here and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair, given what I outlined regarding the Orange defense earlier. Take the over (8*). |
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02-04-23 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame OVER 148.5 | Top | 81-64 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Notre Dame at 1 pm et on Saturday. Wake Forest has incredibly seen each of its last 12 games go 'over' the total and I expect that streak to last for at least one more game as the Demon Deacons head to South Bend to face the Irish on Saturday afternoon. Notre Dame has actually posted six consecutive 'over' results itself. The Irish check in ranked a miserable 287th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Facing a Wake Forest squad that ranks 27th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 93rd in adjusted tempo, not to mention the fact it is coming off four straight losses, doesn't figure to help Notre Dame's cause here. The Irish don't play at a particularly fast pace, but I expect their hand to be forced on Saturday, likely playing from behind for a considerable portion of this contest as a home underdog. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time Notre Dame limited an opponent to fewer than 25 made field goals. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of its last five contests. It simply didn't make the most of its scoring opportunities last time out against Duke, shooting a miserable 24-of-64 from the field (but still scoring 73 points). I expect it to snap right back here. The Irish have put up more than 70 points in four straight home games though and could be catching the Demon Deacons defense at the right time. In fact, Wake has been a completely different defensive team compared to the first month of the season, yielding 27 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 14 games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-23 | Blazers v. Wizards -4 | Top | 124-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enter this game red hot ATS, although in the case of the Blazers, getting over the hump in that regard has proven difficult. They're coming off consecutive ATS victories (and four in their last five games) but haven't reeled off three straight ATS wins since December 10th to 14th. In that case, the third ATS win came in a rout of the lowly Spurs. The Wizards check in riding a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS streak. Impressively, the last four wins came on the road. They won by 21 points last time out in San Antonio and that's notable as they've gone 24-11 ATS when coming off a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Note that Washington has held seven of its last nine opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While that's not all that impressive on the face of it, keep in mind, seven of those nine opponents got off 90 or more field goal attempts. Here, the Wizards are unlikely to face such a shooting barrage as the Blazers have hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 11 of their last 12 contests. On the flip side, Portland has proven extremely vulnerable defensively, allowing 11 straight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Not only that but they've had no success (or interest) in slowing their opponents' pace, yielding 90 or more FG attempts in four of their last five contests. While these non-conference matchups sometimes leave teams feeling a little flat, I don't think that will be the case for the Wizards, not after they dropped both meetings in this series last season, including a home loss where they were favored by seven points. Look for revenge-minded Washington to gets its payback here. Take Washington (10*). |
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02-03-23 | Cornell v. Princeton OVER 157 | Top | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cornell and Princeton at 7 pm et on Friday. I've been waiting for this rematch since Cornell and Princeton combined to score 'only' 143 points in the first meeting of the season back on January 7th. We cashed one of our bigger plays of the season last year with the 'over' in a game between the Big Red and Tigers with that contest totalling 171 points almost a year to the day, on February 4th, 2022. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that the first meeting this season was played in Cornell's home gym. That's notable as Princeton plays considerably faster here at home, where it averages two more field goal attempts per game compared to its season average while also giving up three additional FG attempts per contest (also compared to its season average). Cornell figures to take advantage as it is quietly on an incredible shooting run, having knocked down 31, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three contests. Unfortunately, the Big Red have also been very forgiving defensively, yielding 30, 28, 32 and 27 made field goals over their last four games. Princeton got off 62 field goal attempts last time out against Harvard, but could only knock down 26 of them. I certainly expect it to bounce back in that regard here. Like Cornell, Princeton has struggled to contain opposing offenses, allowing 24, 28, 21, 34 and 35 made field goals over its last five contests. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-23 | California v. Colorado -15.5 | Top | 46-59 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 10 pm et on Thursday. This is a big revenge spot for Colorado after it was stunned by an 80-76 score against California in the teams' first meeting this season. The Buffaloes enter this contest on the heels of back-to-back losses and defeats in five of their last six games overall, both SU and ATS. I think we'll see a 'sling-shot' effect from the Colorado offense here after it got off 65 and 60 field goal attempts but could only muster a combined 45 made field goals in a pair of games at Oregon and Oregon State last week. Here, the Buffaloes figure to 'get right' against a putrid Cal defense (it ranks 236th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom) that has allowed 27, 31, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last four games - despite holding three of those four opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Colorado ranks top-20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, not to mention the fact it rates out 55th in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). I'm not convinced there will be enough scoring opportunities for the Bears to keep this one within reach. They rank a miserable 356th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Colorado has smothered opposing offenses, holding those opponents to 50, 51, 53 and 47 field goal attempts over its last four contests. Take Colorado (10*). |
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02-02-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets OVER 232.5 | Top | 117-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. There's little chance we see the likes of Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins in this game and that leads to the total sitting in a very reasonable range. Remember, the last time the Warriors rested their stars, they still scored 120 points in an upset win over a good Cavs team in Cleveland earlier this month. There's a good chance we see the Nuggets offense absolutely go off in this one. Denver is in fine form offensively after knocking down 44 and 43 field goals over its last two games, scoring 119 and 122 points in the process. Keep in mind, those were relatively slow-paced affairs. Here, the Nuggets will face a Warriors squad that has allowed 101, 93 and 95 field goal attempts in regulation time over their last three games. Incredibly, nine straight Golden State opponents have knocked down at least 42 field goals in regulation time. You would have to go back 16 games, all the way to December 28th, to find the last time the Warriors held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. As I mentioned, Golden State is likely to give a number of its key contributors the night off, probably not the worst thing after Thompson and Curry combined to shoot 11-for-34 in last night's overtime loss in Minnesota (we won with the Timberwolves in that game). That game did manage to stay 'under' the total, which is notable as the Warriors haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since a four-game streak from December 25th to 30th. Take the over (10*). |
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02-01-23 | Warriors v. Wolves +3.5 | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the revenge-minded T'Wolves on Wednesday as they look to get back at the Warriors after dropping the first meeting of the season by 23 points back in late November. Minnesota checks in off a loss in the second game of a two-game set with the Kings. Sacramento made the necessary adjustments after dropping the opener, knocking down a whopping 47 field goals in a 118-111 win on Monday. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had held three consecutive opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Minnesota enters this game having knocked down 40 or more field goals in five straight and 11 of its last 12 games overall. It's a similar story for Golden State offensively, but at the other end of the floor, it has struggled. The Warriors have yielded 42 or more made field goals in eight straight games and 40+ in 14 consecutive contests. Here, we'll note that Golden State is just 17-30 ATS when playing on the road off a win over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.4 points in that situation. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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02-01-23 | Penn State +10.5 v. Purdue | 60-80 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Penn State plus the points over Purdue at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. While Purdue is obviously the superior team in this matchup, I'm not convinced there's as much separating the two squads as indicated by the inflated pointspread. The Boilermakers beat the Nittany Lions by 13 points in their first meeting back in early January. Purdue shot the lights out in that game while Penn State couldn't make the most of its whopping 62 field goal attempts, knocking down only 26 of them. Since yielding 31 made field goals in that defeat, the Nittany Lions have held their last five opponents to 26, 23, 23, 23 and 25 made field goals. While some might believe Penn State is in for a letdown here off a 22-point rout of Michigan last time out, I don't see it. Keep in mind, the Nittany Lions are just one game removed from a 20-point setback at the hands of Rutgers. This certainly isn't the time for Penn State to get complacent. Purdue is coming off a win and cover against Michigan State but remains just 9-11 ATS in lined contests this season. The Boilers 29 made field goals in that win over the Spartans represented a high-water mark in that department over their last six games. You would have to go back 14 games to find the last time Purdue got off 60 or more field goal attempts in a game - a big reason why it seems to have trouble covering these lofty pointspreads. Take Penn State (8*). |
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01-31-23 | Kansas State v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Kansas State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Kansas State outlasted Kansas in a thriller in Manhattan back on January 17th - an upset that wasn't really an upset. Here, I look for the Jayhawks to exact their revenge as they look to build off a solid 77-68 win over Kentucky. Getting out of the Big 12 for a game was probably a welcome relief for Kansas after it had dropped three straight games SU and five in a row ATS. The Jayhawks got back to a winning formula in that contest, holding the Wildcats to just 51 field goal attempts. I look for them to frustrate the Kansas State offense on Tuesday as well, noting that the Wildcats have touched 25 made field goals just once in three games since reaching that mark in that January 17th win over the Jayhawks. On the occasion where they did they still fell by four points on the road against Iowa State. The Wildcats are coming off a 14-point win over Florida on Saturday. They were fortunate that the Gators couldn't make the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down only 18 field goals in the defeat. Kansas State isn't likely to be so fortunate here, noting that Kansas connected on an impressive 31 field goals in Saturday's win and averages 29-of-61 shooting here at home this season. While Kansas State has been the far better bet this season - one of the best in the nation in that regard in fact - it has also faced the 39th toughest schedule according to KenPom. Contrast that with Kansas - no team has faced a more difficult slate of opponents than the Jayhawks based on the same metrics. The last time these two in-state rivals met on this floor, the Jayhawks won by 19. In fact, you would have to go back to 2018 to find the last time the Wildcats kept it to a single-digit losing margin on the road against Kansas. Take Kansas (10*). |
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01-31-23 | Heat v. Cavs -5 | 100-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat were playing with a thin margin for error during their recent three-game winning streak. They got off a combined 38 more field goal attempts than the opposition over that stretch, yet still only won those three contests by a grand total of 12 points. Perhaps not surprisingly, they got caught by the Hornets on Sunday, still getting off 10 more field goal attempts than Charlotte but falling by five points. Now Miami, with its woeful 19-30-2 ATS record, heads to Cleveland to face a Cavs squad that just welcomed back Donovan Mitchell and rolled to a 122-99 win over the Clippers last time out. Cleveland has now scored 100 points or more in 13 straight games which is an accomplishment when you consider the fairly deliberate pace they tend to play at. The Cavs have knocked down 40 or more field goals in six of their last seven games despite hoisting up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven of those contests. On the flip side, few teams do it better defensively, with Cleveland having limited five straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Heat can of course play some elite defense as well, I'm just not convinced their offense will be along for the ride on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the Cavs are 27-14 ATS when coming off a double-digit win over the last two seasons. Better still, they're 18-7 ATS when following up a double-digit home victory, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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01-30-23 | Magic +10.5 v. 76ers | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Magic on Friday in Miami and then got the result we wanted in a lopsided loss to the Bulls on Saturday, setting Orlando up as a significant underdog against the red hot 76ers on Monday. The Magic had a tough night at the office against the Bulls on Saturday, not all that surprising as they were in a back-to-back and three-in-four situation and it showed as they allowed Chicago to knock down 48-of-81 field goal attempts. Here, I'm confident we'll see Orlando rebound, noting that it remains a terrific 7-2 ATS over its last nine games. Philadelphia has reeled off seven straight wins, however, I do think it could prove difficult to get up for this Monday night affair, noting that it has won 10 straight matchups in this series. The 76ers have incredibly shot better than 50% from the field in six straight games. That's masked the fact that they've struggled to contain opposing offenses, allowing 43 or more made field goals in six of their last eight contests, despite seven of those opponents getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Take Orlando (8*). |
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01-30-23 | Virginia v. Syracuse +5.5 | Top | 67-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Syracuse on Monday as it hosts Virginia - which has suddenly vaulted itself into the national title conversation on the heels of six straight wins. Here, I can't help but feel the Cavaliers are in for a letdown after matching a season-high with 30 made field goals in Saturday's rout of Boston College. Of note, Virginia also matched a season-low in ACC play by limiting the Eagles to only 20 made field goals. It figures to face a tougher test on Monday as Syracuse looks to bounce back from consecutive losses. The Orange had impressively knocked down 30, 28, 29, 31, 29 and 23 field goals over its previous six games before shooting just 23-of-49 from the field against Virginia Tech on Saturday. Syracuse allowed the Hokies to make good on 32 field goals in that contest - a season-high allowed from the Orange. Here, we'll note that Virginia is 12-23 ATS after giving up 60 points or less in its previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by just 1.6 points on average in that situation. The Cavaliers are also a miserable 3-11 ATS after winning their previous contest by 15 points or more, outscored by an average of 1.1 points in that spot. The Orange were right there with the Cavaliers for 40 minutes in their first meeting this season. I'm confident this one will go down to the wire at the very least. Take Syracuse (10*). |
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01-29-23 | Pelicans v. Bucks UNDER 235 | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The Pelicans enter this game on the heels of four consecutive 'under' results, not to mention seven straight losses. Based on the way they're playing right now, I think it's tough for any of their games to get well into the 230's. Note that New Orleans has held five straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time one of its opponents knocked down more than 40 field goals as well. The Bucks shot the lights out against Indiana on Friday, not surprising as the Pacers are down bad with stopper Tyrese Haliburton out of the lineup. Milwaukee has gotten into the 90's in terms of field goal attempts three times in its last eight games. Two of those games came against the aforementioned Pacers and the other was against the Pistons. Here, I expect the Pelicans to offer more resistance at the very least. From an offensive standpoint, New Orleans has been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four straight and six of its last seven games overall. They've gotten more than 90 field goal attempts only twice in their last nine contests and scored just 110 and 103 points in those two affairs. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 with the Pelicans playing on the road off three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 203.8 points in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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01-29-23 | Pelicans +10.5 v. Bucks | 110-135 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. These teams are clearly heading in opposite directions right now with the Pelicans having lost seven games in a row and the Bucks having won five of their last six contests. With that being said, I expect New Orleans to give Milwaukee a run on Sunday night. Based on the way the Pelicans are playing right now, it's not easy to beat them by a considerable margin. Three of their last four losses have come by single-digits while the other came by 10 points (last night against Washington - a game where Jonas Valanciunas was ejected early). New Orleans has held five straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time one of its opponents made good on more than 40 field goals. Offensively, the Pelicans have sputtered, still missing Zion Williamson while Brandon Ingram is being eased back from injury. They should at least be given plenty of opportunities here, as the Bucks have allowed 14 of their last 16 opponents to get off at least 87 FG attempts. All told, Milwaukee has covered the spread in four of its last eight games overall. Of those ATS wins, only two came by more than 10 points. Also note that they shot the lights out in all four spread-covering victories (52% or better from the field). I think we see the Pelicans offer some resistance here. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 47.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. Both of last weekend's AFC Divisional Round matchups ended up fizzling from a point-scoring perspective, leading to a pair of 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold this Sunday as the Bengals and Chiefs do battle in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game. While the Bengals ran the football at will in last Sunday's landslide win over the Bills in snowy Buffalo, I expect nothing of the sort against a stout Chiefs run defense here. Cincinnati's path to victory here undoubtedly involves throwing the football at will and doing so in all areas of the field. The Bengals pass protection issues were non-existent last Sunday but will likely play more of a factor here. While one might think that would lead to a lower ceiling for this Bengals offense, I'm not convinced that will be the case. Joe Burrow has routinely carved up the Chiefs defense in three previous matchups between these two teams and I'm confident in Cincinnati's ability to scheme up an offensive gameplan that puts the ball into the hands of its playmakers like Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. On the flip side, the Chiefs offense also has an apparent low ceiling with QB Patrick Mahomes dealing with a high ankle sprain that looked awfully severe in last Saturday's gutsy win over the Jaguars. With that being said, Mahomes is operating behind a Chiefs offensive line that is only overshadowed by the Eagles in that department as far as teams remaining in the playoffs go. Similarly to the Bengals, I believe the Chiefs best chance at advancing to the Super Bowl comes by putting the ball in the air, again in all areas of the field with guys like do-everything RB Jerick McKinnon and all-universe TE Travis Kelce pacing the offense. The three previous meetings between the Bengals and Chiefs going back to last season have produced 65, 51 and 51 total points. We're working with a reasonably low total here, largely due to the injury to Mahomes and the cluster of injuries on the Bengals offensive line. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Cincinnati at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. The Bengals have enjoyed tremendous success over the course of the last two seasons and will look to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl for the second straight year on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. I expect them to fall short. The Chiefs got a scare last Saturday when Patrick Mahomes suffered what appeared to be a devastating ankle injury early in the game against the Jaguars. Mahomes would ultimately return and Kansas City gutted out a tough 27-20 win over a game Jacksonville squad. I actually think the Chiefs are better for it after going through their share of adversity in that game. To say that this Kansas City squad is seasoned for this type of environment would be an understatement. The core of this team has seen it all and been here before (multiple times), most notably the trio of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. I'm confident that all three will play a significant role in booking a ticket back to the Super Bowl on Sunday. Last week, Cincinnati was able to overcome its significant absences on its offensive line. Here, I'm not sure it will be so fortunate, at least not when a big play is needed late. The Chiefs defense certainly doesn't get enough credit in the shadow of Mahomes and the team's explosive offense. While it will undoubtedly have its hands full with an elite Bengals offense here, I believe this is a group that expects to come up with that big play late, just as we saw last Saturday when it secured a critical interception in the latter stages of the fourth quarter against Jacksonville. Even on a bad ankle, Mahomes is capable of contributing his share of big plays on the offensive side of the football. Unlike last week when the Bengals benefited from facing a mistake-prone Bills offense, this time around they'll likely need to make their own breaks as Kansas City takes care of the football (only two turnovers in its last four games - both in Week 17 against Denver). I simply feel the Chiefs are the superior team and the fact that we're being asked to lay less than a field goal with them at home, in this rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game (which they lost) is a bargain. Take Kansas City (8*). |
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01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles -2 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 31 m | Show |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Francisco at 3 pm et on Sunday. We backed the 49ers as our top side play of the entire season last week so I obviously have plenty of respect for the Kyle Shanahan-led squad. With that being said, I feel this is the week to jump off as the Niners enter riding a 12-game winning streak but prepare to face what I feel has been and is the most complete team in the NFL this season. The calf injury to Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is certainly a concern, even if they do have plenty of depth at the position, not to mention other ways to attack the Eagles defense. My concern for San Francisco here is that Philadelphia has the type of pass defense that can all but erase a guy like WR Brandon Aiyuk and even TE George Kittle. Deebo Samuel is still going to get his, especially if McCaffrey is less than 100% healthy but I'm not convinced that will be enough. Offensively, the Eagles are well-positioned to eat with QB Jalen Hurts looking prolific-as-always in last Saturday's rout of the Giants and the WR duo of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith well-positioned to go off against a middle-of-the-road Niners pass defense. The injury to RB Tony Pollard absolutely derailed the Cowboys hopes of staging an upset of the Niners last Sunday. Here, I'm confident we'll see Eagles RB Miles Sanders have a productive afternoon to keep the San Francisco pass rush honest, noting also that Philadelphia possesses a truly elite offensive line, both in pass and run-blocking. This is a battle of two ultra-talented teams, both coming in playing their best football. I simply feel that the Eagles have a little more on both sides of the football and will ultimately book their ticket for Arizona on Sunday afternoon in the City of Brotherly Love. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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01-28-23 | Sabres v. Wild -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 goals over Buffalo at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Sabres have reeled off five straight wins, including three in a row to open their current road trip. I look for them to get tripped up in Minnesota on Saturday, however. Note that Buffalo has now put together a season-high streak of six straight games without getting outscored by two goals or more. Here, they run into a tough spot as the Wild have been an excellent 'positive momentum' play in recent years. Minnesota checks in an incredible 16-2 when coming off a home win by one goal over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.1 goals on average in that spot. The Wild are also 21-6 when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. Having dropped all three meetings in this series going back to the start of last season, I look for the Wild to get some payback here. Take Minnesota -1.5 goals (8*). |
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01-28-23 | Golden Knights v. Islanders OVER 6 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and New York at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams were involved in relatively low-scoring affairs last night with the Golden Knights dropping a 4-1 decision to the Rangers in Manhattan and the Islanders skating to a 2-0 win over the Red Wings here on Long Island. I expect a much higher-scoring game to play out as the two teams match up on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is 10-2 with the Knights seeking revenge for a loss by three goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals (the Isles defeated the Knights 5-2 in Las Vegas earlier this season). The 'over' has gone 11-3 with the Islanders having lost four of their last five games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 6.6 goals in that spot. The last time these two teams met on Long Island last season, they combined to score seven goals. I expect more of the same here. Take the over (8*). |
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01-28-23 | Canadiens v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Senators exploded for six goals in an upset win over the Maple Leafs in Toronto last night. Keep in mind, they had been held to a grand total of four goals over their previous three contests. They haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since January 12th and 14th. Montreal is coming off a high-scoring game of its own as it fell by a 4-3 score in overtime against Detroit on Thursday (we won with the 'over' in that game). We can expect them to go back to Sam Montembault between the pipes on Saturday and that should bode well as he's posted a .912 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'under' going 2-1-1 in those four contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 37-17 with the Canadiens playing on the road off consecutive home losses. The 'under' has also gone 23-13 with the Senators playing at home against a division opponent over the last two seasons. Take the under (8*). |
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01-28-23 | Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 231.5 | 119-126 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Philadelphia at 3:10 pm et on Saturday. The 76ers have been on an incredible run of 'over' results over the last month-plus but I'm not sure it's sustainable. Note that Philadelphia has now held five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Last time out, the 76ers limited the Nets to only 76 field goal attempts but Brooklyn shot the lights out and the result was a game that totalled a ridiculous 270 points. Philadelphia is just one game removed from knocking down 49 field goals in a win over the defensively-challenged Kings in Sacramento. Apart from that, the Sixers have been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games and 40 or less on three occasions over that stretch. The Nuggets have reeled off three straight 'under' results, most recently resting a number of starters in a tight game in Milwaukee. Denver has now held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Nuggets allowed an opponent to knock down more than 40 field goals. On the flip side, Denver is suddenly laboring offensively, making good on just 36, 39 and 38 field goals over its last three contests. The Nuggets did hoist up 97 FG attempts in that loss in Milwaukee on Wednesday but that was largely due to the fact they were missing the production of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, forcing them to push the pace in an effort to keep up with the Bucks. That marked the first time in nine games Denver had gotten off 90+ FG attempts. Take the under (8*). |
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01-28-23 | Texas Tech v. LSU OVER 132 | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and LSU at 2 pm et on Saturday. We'll go the contrarian route with this play as LSU checks in off a deplorable 14-made field goal performance in a 60-40 loss to Arkansas last time out while Texas Tech reaches Baton Rouge off consecutive 'under' results. I wouldn't categorize either of these defenses as elite, or anything remotely close. Yet the Red Raiders have held their last two opponents to just 20 and 19 made field goals. Keep in mind, they still lost both of those games by double-digits, allowing 68 and 76 points against Kansas State and West Virginia, respectively. After facing a very difficult slate of opponents in SEC play, the Tigers will likely be happy to face a Big 12 opponent in Texas Tech on Saturday. While LSU's offense has been a big part of the problem lately, it has also allowed its last four opponents to knock down 35, 26, 29 and 23 field goals. The pace has been there but Texas Tech just hasn't been able to make its shots lately, noting that it is just one game removed from hoisting up a whopping 71 field goal attempts against Kansas State. Here, I do expect the Red Raiders to put it together offensively and help this one sail 'over' the reasonably low total. Finally, I'll note that these two teams produced 147 total points (with a closing total of 143.5) the last time they met in 2021. Take the over (10*). |
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01-28-23 | Alabama v. Oklahoma +6.5 | 69-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Alabama at 2 pm et on Saturday. We missed with Oklahoma at home against Baylor last Saturday as it led most of the way before coughing it up late in a two-point loss. From there, the Sooners seemingly suffered a bit of a hangover three nights later as they were blasted on the road against a good TCU team. Here, back home against an SEC opponent in Alabama, I look for Oklahoma to bounce back. The opportunities have been there for the Sooners, they simply haven't been taking advantage. Note that they've hoisted up 56, 57 and 64 field goal attempts in their last three games and should be afforded plenty of opportunities against an up-tempo Alabama squad here as well. While the Crimson Tide have faced the fourth most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom, the Sooners aren't far behind at sixth. Here, we'll note that Oklahoma is 8-1 ATS when coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Alabama is a woeful 1-9 ATS when coming off eight or more consecutive victories, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by just 2.6 points on average in that spot. I look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Oklahoma (8*). |
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01-27-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive wins but both of those games could have gone either way as they beat the Pelicans by four and the Celtics by three. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown off the big win over the Celtics on Tuesday (they were without Jimmy Butler in that game). The pace alone in Miami's recent contests makes grabbing a generous helping of points an attractive proposition. The Heat's last three games have seen a total of 149, 158 and 168 field goal attempts. Miami checks in having knocked down 33, 35 and 34 field goals over that stretch. In stark contrast, Orlando is as healthy as it has been all season and it shows - at least offensively. The Magic have made good on 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games - the lone outlier came in a contest where they still scored 123 points in a double-digit win over New Orleans. Yes, Orlando has gone an ugly 6-17 SU on the road this season but it is a far more respectable 11-11-1 ATS. Compare that with the Heat, who are 16-9 SU but just 8-15-2 ATS on their home floor. When you break down the numbers, the Heat actually don't hold much of an advantage at all in this matchup. Orlando has knocked down one less field goal per game on the road compared to Miami at home, but has done so on two fewer field goal attempts on average. At the other end of the floor, the Magic yield two more made field goals per game on the road compared to the Heat at home, but do so on four additional FG attempts given up per contest. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are a woeful 4-14 ATS when coming off an ATS victory this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points in that situation. They're also just 5-15 ATS when following up consecutive home wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.5 points on average in that spot. Take Orlando (10*). |
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01-27-23 | Golden Knights v. Rangers OVER 6 | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher scoring contest than most are expecting on Friday in Manhattan. The Golden Knights check in off consecutive losses to open their current road trip. In those two games they could muster only three goals against the Coyotes and Devils. Still, this is a team that averages an impressive 3.7 goals per game on the road this season, where it has posted a 15-7 record. The Rangers took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 5-1 score in Las Vegas back in early December. That's notable as the 'over' has gone a perfect 6-0 with Vegas seeking revenge for a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.4 goals in that situation. The 'over' is also a long-term 17-6 with the Golden Knights having lost six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here, leading to 7.1 total goals on average in that spot. The Rangers held a 2-1 lead until the final five minutes of the third period in Toronto two nights ago but ultimately gave up the tying goal and then the winner in overtime in a 3-2 setback. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-6 with the Rangers returning home off a road loss over the last three seasons, good for an average total of 7.0 goals scored in that situation. New York knows it can't just sit on a lead again the way it did in Toronto two nights ago. Expect a more aggressive gameplan from the Blueshirts as they look to head into an extended All-Star break on a high note. Take the over (8*). |
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01-26-23 | UCLA v. USC OVER 130 | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and USC at 9 pm et on Thursday. The first meeting between these Los Angeles rivals resulted in a low-scoring 60-58 UCLA victory back on January 5th. I expect a higher-scoring affair in Thursday's rematch as we're dealing with a reasonably low total, largely due to the recent run of 'unders' both teams have been on. It's only a matter of time before the Bruins enjoy an offensive explosion in my opinion. I believe we might just see that 'slingshot' effect in this matchup on Thursday. Note that UCLA has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of its last four games. Here, it faces a vulnerable USC defense that has had little success (or interest) in slowing its opponents' pace, yielding 24 or more made field goals in four of its last six games and 58 or more field goal attempts in five straight contests. On the flip side, the Trojans can shoot. They've incredible knocked down 24 or more field goals in 11 straight games. The Bruins are one of the best defensive teams in the nation without question but here, against a revenge-minded Trojans squad, I expect them to have their hands full. Take the over (8*). |
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01-26-23 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 221 | 113-95 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rockets were involved in a relatively low-scoring game against the Wizards last night. Regardless whether Donovan Mitchell is able to go for the Cavaliers (he re-injured his groin on Tuesday in New York) I still expect Cleveland to go off offensively in this one. The Rockets were fortunate the Wizards couldn’t make the most of their scoring opportunities last night or the result would have been far more lopsided. Houston allowed a whopping 98 field goal attempts in that contest. The Rockets have allowed four of their last five opponents to get off 91 or more field goal attempts. Meanwhile, Cleveland has hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games. In spite of that it has knocked down 40 or more field goals in each of those four contests. Defensively, the Cavs are terrific but they do face a Rockets squad that has made good on 42 or more field goals in four of its last five games. I do think we see Cleveland suffer a bit of a letdown defensively here after going against Memphis, Golden State, Milwaukee and New York in consecutive games. Take the over (8*). |
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01-26-23 | Red Wings v. Canadiens OVER 6 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canadiens sat back and defended, waiting for the Bruins to make a mistake and perhaps open up a scoring opportunity on Tuesday night (they ended up with only 22 shots on goal). The strategy worked well for the first two periods but Montreal ultimately fell by a 4-2 score. Here, I expect the Habs to employ a different strategy against a Red Wings squad that checks in allowing 3.8 goals per game on the road this season. Detroit has been stuck in the mud offensively, scoring three goals or less in six straight games. I do see this as an excellent opportunity to break out against a Montreal team that gives up 3.7 goals per contest on home ice. Yes, the Habs are missing a number of key contributors up front, leaving them in tough offensively but as we saw against the Bruins, guys like Nick Suzuki and Kirby Dach are more than capable of generating scoring chances and here, they'll have the benefit of facing a more beatable goaltender in Ville Husso (.897 save percentage in 11 road games this season) than they saw in standout Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman two nights ago. Take the over (8*). |
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01-25-23 | Louisville v. Boston College OVER 133.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Boston College at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting on Wednesday night in Chestnut Hill. Louisville is of course mired in a down season having lost 17 of 19 games overall and eight in a row entering Wednesday's contest. We had actually seen a bit of a spark from the Cardinals offensively for a stretch prior to getting held down by a pair of tough opponents in North Carolina and Pittsburgh in their last two games. I'm confident we'll see them do enough to help this total along on Wednesday, however, noting that Boston College has allowed five of its last eight opponents to get off 60 or more field goal attempts with the opposition knocking down 26 or more field goals in three of its last four contests. Offensively, the Eagles have been quietly 'filling it up', making good on 28, 26, 32, 21, 26 and 29 field goals over their last six games. Even in the low-water mark of 21 over that stretch, the Eagles still scored 63 points in a game that totalled 148 points against Wake Forest. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a low-scoring one, reaching only 121 total points. We're dealing with a considerably lower posted total this time around, however, noting that last year's game saw a closing total of 138. Take the over (10*). |
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01-25-23 | Hurricanes v. Stars -102 | 3-2 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Carolina at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. This is undoubtedly a game the Stars have had circled since dropping a 5-4 decision in Raleigh earlier this season. Dallas is well-positioned to get its revenge here, noting that it has gone 13-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 1.0 goal per contest. With that being said, the Stars aren't likely to take anything for granted after dropping a 3-2 decision against the Sabres on home ice on Monday. Carolina has won four of its last five games overall including two in a row heading into this non-conference clash. Note that the Hurricanes are just 7-13 when playing on the road after winning four of their last five games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. Worse still, the Canes are 7-20 in their last 27 road games when coming off consecutive wins by three goals or more, which is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that spot. Take Dallas (8*). |
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01-25-23 | Nuggets +8 v. Bucks | Top | 99-107 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I understand the logic behind the Nuggets being substantial underdogs here. After all, the Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot, on the road, while the Bucks return home after putting up a ridculous 150 points in a win over the Pistons two nights ago. They're not all that flashy by any means but the Nuggets have won an incredible 20 of their last 24 games. Based on the style Denver is employing right now, it's going to be tough for anyone to beat it by a considerable margin. The Nuggets have held seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They've limited 11 consecutive opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While Denver has made good on only 36 and 39 field goals in its last two contests that had a lot to do with the snail's pace those two games were played at. Here, they'll have a chance to get loose against a Bucks squad that has allowed their last six opponents to knock down 42, 45, 43, 46, 48 and 43 field goals, going a modest 3-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo just returned two nights ago but this is a team that has figured out how to win without him in recent years. Here, Milwaukee will be missing an underrated contributor in Bobby Portis after he suffered a knee injury. Note that the Bucks are just 29-48 ATS when returning home off a road win over a division opponent going all the way back to 1996. Take Denver (10*). |
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01-24-23 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Iowa State checks in off its first ATS defeat in seven games on Saturday as it dropped a narrow two-point decision on the road against Oklahoma State. I'm confident we'll see the Cyclones bounce back on Tuesday, however, as they return home to host Kansas State. The Wildcats enter off consecutive wins, both SU and ATS. I still think this is a team playing with fire as it consistently gives up a ton of scoring opportunities, having allowed all seven opponents in Big 12 play to get off at least 63 field goal attempts and six of those to hoist up 63+. They were fortunate that Texas Tech was unable to make good on its opportunities on Saturday as the Red Raiders knocked down only 23-of-71 field goal attempts in a 68-58 Kansas State victory. We saw a glimpse of what to expect from the Kansas State offense against a smothering defense as it could only muster 20 made field goals on a season-low 47 attempts. Here, it will face an Iowa State squad that has held nine straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Only one of the Cyclones last six opponents has managed to get off 50+ field goal attempts. On the flip side, Iowa State is coming off a poor shooting performance against Oklahoma State last time out. With that being said, you only have to go back four games to find the last time it made good on more than 30 field goals (34 in a win over Texas Tech). Noting that these two teams have enjoyed similar success this season but Iowa State has faced the 15th most difficult schedule in the country while Kansas State has gone against the 53rd toughest slate of opponents (according to KenPom), we'll lay the points with the Cyclones here. Take Iowa State (10*). |
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01-24-23 | Oklahoma State +8 v. Texas | 75-89 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma State plus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Oklahoma State as it hits the road to face Texas on Tuesday. The Cowboys are coming off consecutive SU and ATS wins, despite a sluggish offensive performance on Saturday against Iowa State. Oklahoma State made good on just 18-of-41 field goal attempts in that contest. Prior to that, the Cowboys had knocked down 22, 23 and 27 field goals in their previous three games and I'm confident we'll see them snap back offensively here. It also wasn't a top rate defensive effort from the Cowboys against the Cyclones as they allowed Iowa State to get off 63 field goal attempts - a high-water mark for Oklahoma State in Big 12 play this season. The Cowboys have still done a good job of keeping opposing offenses in check, holding each of their last six opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. The last time they gave up more than that was in a narrow two-point loss (but ATS cover) at Kansas back on New Year's Eve. Texas continues to rack up victories but has proven to be an awful bet ATS-wise. The Longhorns were in top form at both ends of the floor against West Virginia on Saturday. They've been inconsistent though, and it's worth noting that the only two occasions where they've connected on more than 26 field goals in Big 12 play this season, they've lost by 13 points against Kansas State and won by four against TCU, both at home. Texas has won consecutive meetings in this series but you would have to go all the way back to 2016-17 to find the last time it took three straight matchups against Oklahoma State. Finally, I'll point out that Oklahoma State has faced the 13th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Texas checks in having gone against the 52nd toughest slate of opponents. While Texas has obviously fared better with a 16-3 record, I simply feel it is laying too many points in this spot. Take Oklahoma State (8*). |
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01-24-23 | Wizards v. Mavs OVER 224.5 | Top | 127-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I think we see a 'slingshot' effect from the Mavericks offensively after they were held down by the Clippers last time out. In fact, Dallas is coming off consecutive low-scoring, slow-paced games against Miami and Los Angeles. I expect nothing of the sort here as the Mavs host the Wizards on Tuesday. Yes, Washington will be without Kristaps Porzingis and just dealt Rui Hachimura to the Lakers after he poured in 30 points last time out. I still anticipate the Wizards pushing the pace here, noting they've knocked down 42, 42 and 51 field goals over their last three games and have hoisted up 93 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Washington has had no success (or interest) in slowing its opponents' pace, allowing nine of its last 10 opponents to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time the Wiz held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. While Dallas held up well defensively in its last two games, it is still sorely missing the presence of Christian Wood on the inside and the blowout nature of those last two contests likely contributed to keeping the pace down. Note that prior to those two contests, the Mavs had allowed 44, 49, 43 and 49 made field goals over their last four games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-11 with the Wizards coming off two wins in their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-7 with Dallas coming off a loss this season, leading to an average total of 231.0 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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01-24-23 | Bruins v. Canadiens OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The talk in Montreal these days is more about who's not playing than who is. The Canadiens are as beaten up as any team in the league right now injury-wise, but continue to battle hard, as evidenced by Saturday's come-from-behind 3-2 overtime win over the Maple Leafs. Here, they'll face another tough test at home against the Bruins in what will be the first meeting between these division rivals this season. Boston enters having allowed just two goals over its last four games, all victories. It posted a 4-0 shutout win over the Sharks on Sunday and that's notable as it has gone 4-9, allowing an average of 3.5 goals (good for a total of 6.7 goals) when coming off a shutout win over the last three seasons. Also note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with Boston playing on the road coming off four straight wins by two goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 7.5 goals in that spot. The Bruins saw Canadiens goaltender Sam Montembault twice last season, scoring four goals on him on each occasion (they added an empty-netter for good measure in both games as well). Take the over (10*). |
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01-23-23 | Grizzlies -1 v. Kings | 100-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Sacramento at 10:40 pm et on Monday. While the Grizzlies staged an incredible second half comeback, they still fell short in Phoenix last night, marking their second straight loss to open their current road trip. I do like their chances of getting back in the win column as they head to Sacramento to face the Kings, who just lost for the first time in seven games on Saturday against Philadelphia. Despite last night's undesirable result, Memphis continues to play terrific defensive basketball, holding four of its last five opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. It's a much different story for the Kings as they've allowed nine consecutive opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. To find the last nine times the Grizzlies have allowed the opposition to eclipse that number in that department you would have to go all the way back to November 18th. Offensively, both teams have been thriving. Despite the dreadful start they got off to last night, the Grizzlies still managed to connect on 40 or more field goals for the 13th straight game. Here, we'll note that Memphis is a perfect 8-0 ATS when coming off consecutive road losses over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an incredible average margin of 14.0 points in that situation. The Grizz are also 13-3 ATS after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 15.3 points on average in that spot. Take Memphis (8*). |
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01-23-23 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 149.5 | Top | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 9 pm et on Monday. These two teams enjoyed far different results on Saturday as Kansas was embarrassed in a 23-point home loss against TCU while Baylor eked out a 62-60 road win over Oklahoma. Noting that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with Kansas coming off consecutive games in which it allowed 75 points or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 132.3 points, we'll confidently back the 'under' in a series that has generally been lower-scoring than most have expected over the years. Baylor got off to an 0-3 start in conference play, marked by a couple of high-scoring defeats at the hands of TCU and Kansas State, at home no less. Since then, we've seen the Bears lock in defensively, allowing 23, 23, 27 and 26 made field goals and no more than 60 field goal attempts over their last four games. For Kansas, it is in a clear bounce-back spot here after getting lit up for 31 made field goals against TCU on Saturday. Poor defensive efforts don't pop up often when it comes to the Bill Self-coached Jayhawks and I'm confident we'll see them respond positively in that department on Monday. Prior to Saturday's game, Kansas had held an incredible 15 of its first 18 opponents this season to 25 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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01-23-23 | Hawks v. Bulls -1 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Having strung together consecutive wins - as healthy as they've been in a quite a while with both Zach Lavine and Demar Derozan available - and with each of their next four games coming against Eastern Conference opponents, this is where the Bulls need to get on a run if they want to put themselves in good position to reach the playoffs (they currently sit in 10th place in the conference). Tonight's opponent, the Hawks, are one of the teams Chicago is looking up at in the Eastern Conference standings. I like what I've seen from the Bulls lately. Save for a poor showing against the red hot Thunder, they've held four of their last five opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and have certainly rounded into form offensively, knocking down 48 and 50 field goals themselves over their last two contests. The Hawks have also been hot offensively but their defensive play has left a lot to be desired. Atlanta checks in having allowed its last four opponents to make good on 43, 44, 49 and 45 field goals. Keep in mind, the Hawks are just 11-13 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points per contest. The Bulls check in 12-10 at the United Center, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 points on average. To find the last time Atlanta won a game here in Chicago, you would have to go back to December of 2020. Take Chicago (10*). |
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01-23-23 | Panthers v. Rangers -130 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Florida at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark fading the Panthers on Saturday as they outplayed the Wild in a 5-3 home victory. Here, I won't hesitate to come back with the same play as Florida hits the road to face the Rangers in Manhattan. The Panthers have now won consecutive games but consistency hasn't exactly been their calling card this season as they've yet to put together more than two victories in a row. They'll be hard-pressed to do so again here in my opinion as they catch the Rangers well-rested and undoubtedly in a foul mood after dropping a 3-1 decision against the league's best team, the Boston Bruins, last Thursday night. It's worth noting that the Rangers haven't dropped consecutive games since December 27th and 29th with the second of those losses coming by way of a shootout against the Lightning in Tampa. Here, they'll catch the Panthers banged-up with Eric Staal, Sergei Bobrovsky, Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad all suffering injuries in the last week. Goaltender Spencer Knight is expected to be back between the pipes after missing time due to injury, but that's not necessarily a good thing as he has posted a less-than-impressive .893 save percentage with the Panthers winning just four of his 10 starts on the road this season. Rangers all-world netminder Igor Shesterkin has been heating up lately, recording a sterling .922 save percentage over his last four games. Take New York (10*). |
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01-22-23 | Grizzlies -8.5 v. Suns | Top | 110-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Phoenix at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We just saw this matchup on Monday as the Grizzlies rolled to a 30-point home victory. While the Suns would certainly like to get some quick revenge here at home, I don't feel they're well-positioned to do so. Note that Phoenix has been getting healthier with Cam Johnson returning this past Thursday. In fact, the Suns have now won consecutive games after posting a five-point victory against the Pacers last night. But now they're in a tough back-to-back spot with a number of key contributors questionable to play due to injury management or otherwise. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are just one day removed from a tough one-point loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles. They remain locked-in defensively, having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, the Grizz continue to roll along offensively, making good on an incredible 43 or more field goals in 12 consecutive games. In fact, their 43-for-102 shooting performance against the Lakers on Friday was their low-water mark going all the way back to December 27th. The Suns have been lagging defensively. Prior to last night they had allowed their last four opponents to knock down 48, 47, 52 and 43 field goals. Last night's opponent, the Pacers, quite simply had an off night shooting as they actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts but only knocked down 36 of them. Usually stingy defensively when full strength, Phoenix has now allowed four of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts. I expect the Grizzlies to take advantage on Sunday. Take Memphis (10*). |
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01-22-23 | Jets v. Flyers OVER 6.5 | 5-3 | Win | 107 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a bit of a 'slingshot' effect from the Jets offensively last night as they rebounded after being held to a single goal in consecutive games (both losses) in Montreal and Toronto with a five-goal outburst in Ottawa last night. I expect a similar situation to unfold regarding the Flyers here after they were limited to just three goals in their last two contests against the Blackhawks and Red Wings. Note that Philadelphia is averaging 2.9 goals per game on home ice this season and is likely to catch Jets backup goaltender David Rittich on Sunday, noting that he represents a considerable drop-off in talent from regular starter Connor Hellebuyck, who is a Vezina Trophy candidate (and former winner). Likewise, the Jets will likely see the Flyers backup goaltender Felix Sandstrom after Carter Hart started last night's game. Sandstrom owns a less-than-impressive .888 save percentage in eight games this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 7-1 with the Flyers coming off consecutive 'under' results this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 7.7 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 18-8 with Philadelphia coming off a game that totalled three goals or less over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals in that situation. Take the over (8*). |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3.5 | Top | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 105 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. While the 49ers have been on an incredible run, not to mention the fact they've been the best bet in the NFL since mid-November, I can't help but feel they're just scratching the surface and dare I say still undervalued as they head into the Divisional Round of the playoffs on Sunday. Yes, the Cowboys impressed in Monday's complete dismantling of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tampa. However, that lopsided result had a lot to do with the inept nature of the Bucs, who by all accounts were nothing more than a middle-of-the-road team all season, benefiting from residing in a weak NFC South division. Tampa Bay didn't exactly throw a haymaker against what was admittedly a well-prepared Dallas squad that looked like a team on a mission after suffering an embarrassing loss on the road against Washington in the final week of the regular season. The Cowboys are in line for a 'shock to the system' here, however, as they stay on the road for a fourth straight game to face a 49ers team that is quite simply 'firing on all cylinders'. San Francisco took a punch in the first half against the Seahawks last Saturday and I'm glad they did. The fact is, the Niners have faced a fairly breezy schedule going all the way back to mid-November. A little bit of adversity wasn't the worst thing for them to face in the Wild Card round and I believe they're better for it. To say that the Niners are a difficult team to defend is putting it mildly. They have a multi-pronged attack that is unlikely anything we've seen in recent years and they've been taken to the next level by rookie QB Brock Purdy who continues to prove he is indeed the 'real deal'. The Cowboys have only really faced 'dink-and-dunk' type offenses over the last three games, so again I believe they're in for a bit of a reality check here. While I have a lot of respect for the Cowboys offense, I'm still not convinced they'll lean as heavily on RB Tony Pollard as they should, still bent on giving Ezekiel Elliott his share of the pie in an offense where he should realistically only play a bit part (in my opinion). QB Dak Prescott avoided the mistakes that had previously plagued him against the Bucs on Monday, but he was rarely under much duress in that contest. He's sure to face a lot more pressure against the 49ers elite defense here. The Niners have absolutely stamped out opposing running games this season and likely puts a whole lot more on Dak's plate - similar to what we saw in recent road games against the Titans and Commanders in which the Cowboys ultimately turned the football over five times (they didn't commit a single turnover in Monday's win in Tampa). The 49ers have forced at least one turnover in 10 consecutive games and two or more in eight of those contests. This is a rematch of last year's Wild Card game between these two teams in Dallas - a game the 49ers won by a 23-17 score. That final score was actually flattering to the Cowboys in my opinion. I expect San Francisco to ultimately pull away for a convincing victory and advance to the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers OVER 46 | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and San Francisco at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. 'Over' bettors were thwarted by four Brett Maher missed extra points in Tampa on Monday, myself included, but I don't expect this total to fall anywhere close to being in that 'danger zone' on Sunday. Both of these offenses are loaded, that much we know. While this is a more difficult matchup for the Cowboys offense than they faced against the under-achieving Buccaneers defense on Monday, there is a path to success for Dallas should it choose to attack the 49ers through the air. In a game where the potential is certainly there for the Cowboys to be playing from behind much of the afternoon, I'm expecting a very high pass-rate from Dak Prescott and the offense in this one, to varying success. It's going to be a 'pick-your-poison' type of situation for the Cowboys aggressive defense against a multi-pronged 49ers offense that is absolutely peaking at the right time. Maybe the hype has gotten a little too big around San Francisco's 'Mr. Irrelevant' QB Brock Purdy but I still believe he's the real deal and will orchestrate another strong playoff performance here. He simply has too many weapons at his disposal not to find considerable success. Interestingly, when these two teams met in last year's playoffs, we saw a closing total of 51 points. That's despite what I would consider to be two weaker, and certainly less aggressive and more risk-averse offenses that we'll see take the field this time around. That game ultimately reached only 40 points in what was a disjointed affair (remember the 49ers were comfortable putting the game in the hands of their ground attack and defense with Jimmy Garropolo under center). I expect nothing of the sort here as this has the potential to be one of, if not the most entertaining game of Divisional Weekend. Take the over (8*). |
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01-22-23 | Washington State v. Colorado UNDER 137 | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Colorado at 6 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Thursday, snapping a three-game 'under' streak for Washington State and a four-game run of 'unders' for Colorado. Here, I expect a return to normal, so to speak, with a relatively low-scoring affair between the Cougars and Buffaloes. Nothing went right for Washington State last time out as it couldn't generate any sustained offense, nor could it sniff out a stop against Utah (the Utes shot 31-of-56 from the field). I do expect the Cougars to bounce back here, particularly at the defensive end of the floor, where they had held their previous three opponents to 20, 19 and 22 made field goals. It's also worth noting they've limited four of their last five opponents to 56 field goal attempts or fewer. The only occasion where they didn't was largely game-script dependent as they had an up-tempo Arizona squad playing from behind most of the night in a stunning double-digit road victory. Colorado is coming off a poor defensive performance of its own as it allowed Washington to knock down 27-of-50 field goal attempts on Thursday. The Buffaloes made good on 28 field goals themselves, representing a high-water mark since hitting 30 field goals in a narrow loss at Cal on New Year's Eve. Prior to Thursday's poor performance, Colorado had held its last two Pac-12 opponents to just 14 and 18 made field goals and 41 and 42 points here on its home floor. Take the under (8*). |
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01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles -7 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Giants (and the 'over') in last Sunday's 'upset' win in Minnesota. While a lot of bettors are confident going back to the well with the G-Men in an underdog role again here, I think they're looking for something that's quite simply not there. The Eagles are an elite team this season, in all facets. The bye week certainly helped their cause with QB Jalen Hurts and RB Miles Sanders among those looking to get back to 100% health, or as close to it as possible. Last week's matchup with the Vikings was a dream scenario for the Giants as Minnesota featured a listless defense that couldn't pressure the quarterback, couldn't stop the run and couldn't stop the pass. The Giants were effectively able to do whatever they wanted offensively - everything worked. I expect a much different story to unfold here. The one time the Eagles saw Giants RB Saquon Barkley this season, they held him to just 48 yards. Last week's big performance through the air from New York QB Daniel Jones was largely matchup-related. He's going to find the going a lot tougher against the Eagles shutdown secondary led by Darius Slay and James Bradberry. On the flip side, the Giants figure to have an extremely difficult time slowing the Eagles offense, particularly on the ground. Sanders absolutely torched the Giants in their regular season matchup in New York, finding the end zone twice on 155 yards. The presence of Giants CB Adoree' Jackson (he missed the two regular season meetings) certainly helps their cause, but the emergence of Eagles WR Devonta Smith to compliment A.J. Brown figures to present New York with a 'pick-your-poison' situation here. As is often the case, look for the superior, not to mention rested team to roll in this Divisional Round matchup. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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01-21-23 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 48 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday night in Philadelphia. The first meeting between these two teams was a blowout victory in favor of the Eagles, 48-22 in New York back in early December. The rematch wasn't all that notable as the Giants rested their starters in a much lower-scoring defeat. Here, I think we're in line for something in between with the total quite simply proving too high. On a positive note for the Giants, they'll have standout CB Adoree' Jackson on the field for this the third meeting between these two teams this season. Jackson obviously played a big role in last week's 'upset' win in Minnesota, helping stamp out Justin Jefferson's big-play potential. He'll look to do the same against Eagles WR A.J. Brown on Saturday, likely to mixed results. There's no denying the Giants are playing well up front with Kayvon Thibodeaux getting better as the season has gone on. On the flip side, the Eagles boast perhaps the league's best defensive front and should give the Giants offensive line fits all night long. Giants QB Daniel Jones was able to get loose on numerous occasions against the Vikings last week and found plenty of success through the air, just as he did in the teams' regular season matchup. This is a much different challenge, however, and I don't anticipate Jones being afforded a lot of time in the pocket, nor do I expect New York's lukewarm wide receiving corps to enjoy much open field. There is a path for the Giants offense to stay on the field and effectively shorten this game by picking their spots to run with Jones and also work the slot in Avonte Maddox's absence for the Eagles. I'm just not convinced we'll see the Giants end many drives with 7's on the board. We've certainly seen the Eagles jump ahead and then take the air out of the football at times this season. They have that type of offense that can control the football for long periods and I'm confident we'll see that as this game wears on. Running the football figures to be a key part of the Eagles offensive gameplan on Saturday after RB Miles Sanders picked up 155 yards and a pair of scores against the Giants earlier this season. New York can take some solace in the fact that it did effectively stamp out the Vikings ground attack last Sunday, albeit in a much different game script than they're likely to see on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams this season was the only meaningful one - as I mentioned the Giants rested their starters in the Week 18 rematch. That game saw a closing total of just 44.5 points. Of course, it also featured 70 actual points. I don't think we're in for another high-scoring affair here, however, as the Giants have done enough to instill confidence defensively and the return of Jackson has given them a boost against the pass. Note that since that 48-22 loss to the Eagles on December 11th, the Giants have given up 12, 27, 10, 22 and 24 points. Take the under (10*). |