Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-14-23 | Mariners -172 v. Tigers | 3-5 | Loss | -172 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Detroit at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Mariners are suddenly rolling along, winners of eight of their last 11 games and they'll look to complete the series sweep in Detroit on Sunday. I like their chances with Logan Gilbert on the mound against Joey Wentz of the Tigers. Gilbert was a hard-luck loser in his last start as he allowed just two earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 2-1 loss to the Rangers. He's sporting Cy Young Award-caliber numbers so far this season having logged a 2.69 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in seven starts spanning 40 1/3 innings. In his lone outing against the Tigers last season, Gilbert tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball in a 7-0 Mariners win here in Detroit. Wentz has labored through seven starts for the Tigers this season having posted a 5.52 FIP and 1.35 WHIP, allowing 46-of-144 batters he has faced to reach base. The left-hander will be in tough here, noting that the Mariners entered yesterday's action hitting 14 points higher against southpaw starting pitchers compared to their overall batting average, also putting up 4.8 runs per contest. In terms of the bullpens, the Mariners hold the edge in that department as well. They entered Saturday's affair sporting a collective 2.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. The Tigers 'pen has actually performed better than expected so far this season but still owns an ERA north of four and just nine saves compared to six blown. Take Seattle (8*). |
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05-13-23 | Padres v. Dodgers -142 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Diego at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers bats were fairly lifeless against Padres starter Joe Musgrove last Sunday night but they still found a way to pull out a 5-2 victory in extra innings and their dominance over the Padres continued last night as they secured a 4-2 victory to open this series. Musgrove has been slow to regain his form since returning from injury. He logged 9 1/3 innings at the Single and Triple-A level earlier in April and allowed 15-of-43 batters he faced to reach base. Since re-joining the big club he has recorded a 6.22 FIP and 1.43 WHIP, allowing 20 of the 60 batters he has faced to reach base, including four home runs. I believe it's advantage-Dodgers here as they get their second look at Musgrove in less than a week and face him for the sixth time since the start of last season (the Padres went 1-4 in his five previous outings). Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He should be happy to be facing the Padres for a second straight turn in the rotation, noting that he owns a career 7-1 record to go along with a 2.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP against them. You would have to go back nine starts to find the last time the Dodgers lost to the Padres with Urias on the mound. He hasn't gotten off to the start he probably hoped for this season but has settled in over his last couple of outings (save for a bad first inning against the Padres last time out), yielding just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. Urias currently owns a 4.13 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing 54-of-185 batters he has faced to reach base. I expect some positive regression to the mean in terms of his home runs allowed as he has given up 1.6 long balls per nine innings, which would serve as the highest mark of his career (his previous career-high was 1.2 last season). Both bullpens entered the season with high expectations and haven't necessarily lived up to those. With that being said, both have settled down over the last week or so although the Padres continue to have a miserable time trying to close out games, blowing three saves while converting just one over the last seven games. They've already blown eight saves this season (while converting 13). The Dodgers 'pen has converted four saves without blowing a single one over the last seven games. In fact, they've blown only three saves all season (while converting 11). Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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05-13-23 | Stars v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 goals over Dallas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Stars have taken over this series thanks to consecutive lopsided victories. With that being said, it's difficult enough to string together three straight wins by two goals or more but to do it against the same opponent is even tougher. Case in point, prior to the last two games, the Stars had never even won consecutive matchups in this series by multiple goals. You would have to go back to a three-game stretch from March 1st to 4th to find the last time Dallas reeled off three straight victories by two goals or more. Meanwhile, the Kraken haven't lost three straight games by multiple goals since February 7th to 10th. Here, we'll note that Dallas is a woeful 9-19 when playing on the road after winning their previous contest by three goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. The Stars are also just 7-11 when coming off a home win by two goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.1 goal in that spot. Seattle checks in 15-8 when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored five goals or more this season, which is the situation here, outscoring foes by 0.8 goals on average along the way. When playing with double-revenge this season, the Kraken are 14-9 having outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. Take Seattle +1.5 goals (8*). |
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05-13-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. This matchup will feature two underrated starting pitchers in Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs and Joe Ryan of the Twins. While last night's series-opener snuck 'over' the total, I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon. Wesneski will start on full (five days) rest for the first time in his last five outings. He's pitched well nonetheless, allowing just three earned runs in 17 innings of work over his last three starts. After getting off to a shaky start that included six walks and three home runs allowed in his first two outings this season (covering a span of just six innings), Wesneski has really settled down and checks in having allowed 44-of-145 batters he has faced to reach base. The Twins have had to scratch and claw for seemingly every run lately, scoring 2, 3, 0, 1, 4, 5 and 2 runs over their last seven contests. Joe Ryan will take the ball for Minnesota. He's been lights out in the early going this season and doesn't get enough credit for how well he has pitched over the course of his three-year big league career. Ryan owns a 2.82 FIP and 0.84 WHIP in seven starts spanning 44 innings this season. Only 38-of-169 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Both bullpens have held up reasonably well so far this season with the Cubs relief corps' in particular shining lately to the tune of a collective 1.45 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games. They did use two key relievers in Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr. in last night's game but both have proven capable of working back-to-back games this season. The Twins 'pen has logged a collective 3.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season and they kept two key relief arms in Jhoan Duran and closer Jorge Lopez idle last night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Friday. We're finally seeing a significant adjustment made to the total in this series, even after Game 5 ended up sneaking 'over' the closing number. I still feel Friday's total will prove too high. The Warriors went off offensively, knocking down 47-of-92 field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. That was at home. They've made good on 43 or fewer field goals in five of their six playoff road games. On a similar note, the Lakers have now held their opponents to 36, 35, 42 (overtime game), 29, 36 and 40 made field goals in seven home playoff games (including the Play-In Tournament game against Minnesota). As I've mentioned throughout this series, while Los Angeles does have a fairly solid floor in terms of offensive production against the Warriors, it doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, topping out at 43 made field goals in nine matchups going back to the start of the regular season. Both teams are dealing with injury issues, as is often the case at this stage of the playoffs, with the Warriors listing Andrew Wiggins as questionable to play due to a rib injury and Anthony Davis probable after a possible concussion. I would anticipate both playing on Friday but certainly Wiggins - a key offensive contributor for the Warriors - won't be 100% healthy. As I've also noted throughout this series, the Warriors are on quite a defensive run having held 21 of their last 22 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals with the 'under' going 12-10 over that stretch. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 36-17 with Golden State playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Vegas at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We've now seen each of the last three games in this series stay 'under' the total after a wild, high-scoring series-opener that produced 10 goals. Here, I believe we're well-positioned to back the 'over' as the Golden Knights look to answer back following a 4-1 loss in an animosity-filled Game 4. Of course, both teams will be without a defenseman due to suspension in this contest with Darnell Nurse of the Oilers and Alex Pietrangelo of the Knights forced to sit. Neither has provided much offensive spark in these playoffs but certainly play key roles on the blue line and will be missed here. I believe Pietrangelo's absence in particular further opens things up for the Oilers explosive offense as the Knights simply don't have anyone waiting in the wings capable of replacing the veteran's steadiness in critical moments (most notably against a lethal Oilers power play as Pietrangelo works on the Knights top penalty kill unit). Here, we'll note that Edmonton averages an impressive 4.1 goals per game on the road this season but that number rises to 4.6 when facing division opponents (18-game sample size). Note that the Oilers will likely be facing Knights goaltender Adin Hill again here, noting that they've now seen him in two previous starts, scoring eight goals on 56 shots (good for a weak .857 save percentage on Hill's part). Vegas checks in averaging 3.3 goals per game on home ice this season but that number rises considerably to 4.3 when coming off a road loss (seven-game sample size). Also note that we've seen the 'over' go 9-1 with the Knights seeking revenge for a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 7.3 goals in that situation. Better still, even with the 'under' cashing in the last three games in this series, the 'over' is 21-9 with Edmonton coming off an 'under' result this season, resulting in 7.7 total goals on average in that spot. We haven't seen four straight meetings in this series stay 'under' the total since a four-game 'under' streak from April 2019 to March 2020. Take the over (10*). |
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05-12-23 | Astros -150 v. White Sox | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The White Sox return home after dropping three of four games against the lowly Royals and I don't believe they're any better positioned to gt back in the win column as they host the Astros on Friday. Houston salvaged the final two games of its six-game west coast road trip to finish 3-3 on that jaunt. The Astros got a much-needed day off yesterday as their bullpen had been struggling over the last seven games but still owns a terrific 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only four blown on the campaign. That's in stark contrast to that of the White Sox. Chicago's relief corps entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 6.21 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the season and proceeded to give up the game-winning run in the ninth inning against Kansas City. Note that the White Sox haven't had a day off since May 1st, further compounding their issues. Chicago will give Michael Kopech the start on Friday. He's arguably been even worse than his lofty 5.97 ERA indicates having posted a 7.53 FIP and 1.57 WHIP through seven starts spanning 37 2/3 innings. Of the 170 batters he has faced, 62 have reached base including a whopping 12 home runs allowed. J.P France will get his second big league start for the Astros. While he came out on the short end in a 7-5 road defeat against the Mariners in his debut, it wasn't his fault by any means as he gave up just three hits and one walk while striking out five over five shutout innings. Note that France earned the call-up after he posted a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level this season, allowing only 21-of-77 batters he faced to reach base. Take Houston (8*). |
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05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 31 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We've now seen each of the last three games in this series go 'over' the total which sends Game 6 into 'uncharted territory', at least in recent years. I say that because we haven't seen four straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2016-17. The pace certainly wasn't there to dictate such a high-scoring result in Game 5 on Tuesday. Boston got off 83 field goal attempts in that game while Philadelphia countered with only 79. The 76ers quite simply shot the lights out but I expect the Celtics to make the necessary defensive adjustments here as they face potential elimination on Thursday night. Since allowing the Sixers to knock down 45 field goals in Game 1 of this series, Boston has held Philadelphia to just 31, 31, 42 and 40 made field goals over the last four contests. On the flip side, the 76ers have now limited each of their last 10 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. In fact, nine of Philadelphia's last 10 opponents have gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts. The lone outlier came back in Game 2 of this series last week - the only game that happened to stay 'under' the total in this series to date. Here, we'll note that the 'under' remains a long-term 231-187 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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05-11-23 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 10 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. Thursday's series-finale between these two A.L. Central cellar-dwellers features a subpar starting pitching matchup between Mike Clevinger of the White Sox and Brady Singer of the Royals. The book seems to once again be out on Clevinger as he re-acclimates himself with the American League after spending the last couple of years with the Padres. Of course, Clevinger missed the entire 2021 season before returning to log 114 1/3 innings last year. He struggled to the tune of a 4.97 FIP and 1.20 WHIP and has been even worse in the early going this season, recording a 5.19 FIP and 1.53 WHIP in seven starts spanning 35 1/3 innings. Of the 160 batters Clevinger has faced, 56 have reached base including six home runs - all coming in his last four outings. Note that Clevinger will be starting on short rest (four days) for the third time this season. On the two previous occasions he was tagged for five earned runs and lasted only eight innings. Singer has been a bit of an enigma in the first several years of his big league career. He had a terrific 2022 campaign by most accounts, logging a 3.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. That appears to be an outlier, however, as he has struggled again this season, posting a 5.40 FIP and 1.60 WHIP, allowing 57 of the 156 batters he has faced to reach base. Like Clevinger, Singer will also be pitching on just four days' rest on Thursday. In three previous starts on short rest this season, Singer has been lit up for 18 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work. This matchup also pits two of the worst bullpens in baseball with the White Sox relief corps' entering last night's action sporting a collective 6.21 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the season and the Royals 'pen logging a 5.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Prior to last night's contest, the two bullpens had combined to blow 11 saves (while converting 11) already this season. Take the over (8*). |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors saw their fourth quarter lead fizzle in Game 4 of this series on Monday and now they find themselves facing elimination as they return home for Game 5 on Wednesday. I expect them to answer back, noting they're off consecutive losses but haven't dropped three games in a row since March 15th to 18th. That also marked the last time they went three consecutive games without posting an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers have won back-to-back games and we've seen this story before in these playoffs as they're 0-2 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive victories, outscored by 17 and 27 points in those two contests. Also note that the Warriors are 12-3 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 11.0 points in that situation. They're also 13-3 ATS when playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points on average in that spot. The Warriors quite simply went cold from the field in the last two games but did manage to get off 91 field goal attempts in one of those contests while getting back to 40 or more made field goals in the other. They have been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in their last two games. On nine previous occasions where that occurred this season, they responded by averaging 121.8 points in their next contest. I like that Golden State continues to play well defensively, having limited seven straight and an incredible 20 of its last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While there is a fairly distinct offensive floor in place for the Lakers in this particular matchup, I don't believe their ceiling is all that high. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-10-23 | Maple Leafs v. Panthers +110 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Maple Leafs jumped ahead 1-0 early in Game 3 of this series on Sunday and might have thought the underdog Panthers would simply fold from there but that was far from the case as Florida ended up prevailing 3-2 in overtime. The Panthers have now won a season-high six straight games and while I won't make a habit of backing teams heading into 'uncharted territory' I'm willing to make an exception here. Toronto has now been held to exactly two goals in five straight games. That's just not going to cut it, particularly when you have a defense as vulnerable as Toronto does, noting that it has given up three goals or more in seven of nine playoff games to date. To make matters worse, the Leafs lost goaltender Ilya Samsonov to injury in Game 3 meaning Joseph Woll will likely get the start in goal on Wednesday. He's been sharp when called upon this season but suddenly has the pressure of Leafs Nation on his back after allowing the game-winning goal in overtime on Sunday, pushing the team to the brink of elimination. Note that Toronto is just 1-6 when playing on the road seeking revenge for two or more consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.3 goals on average in that situation. Worse still, the Leafs are 0-5 when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against a foe in which it scored three goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. The Panthers have been an excellent 'positive-momentum' play this season, going a perfect 7-0 when coming off consecutive victories over division opponents this season, outscoring foes by an impressive average margin of 2.4 goals along the way. Going back over the last two seasons, Florida owns a perfect 5-0 mark after winning three straight games over divisional foes. Take Florida (10*). |
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05-10-23 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have stayed 'under' the total but I look for a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale. Edward Cabrera will take the ball for the visiting Marlins. He's coming off a 2022 campaign in which he posted a terrific 3.01 ERA but that didn't tell the whole story as he logged a 4.59 FIP in 14 starts, spanning 71 2/3 innings. Perhaps that was a sign of things to come as he has labored through seven outings this season, posting a 5.13 FIP and 1.66 WHIP while allowing a whopping 54-of-148 batters he has faced to reach base. He'll be starting on four days' rest for just the third time this season having allowed four earned runs in 10 innings in his previous two outings on short rest. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He owns an impressive 2.75 ERA this season but again, that doesn't tell the whole story as he has logged a 3.88 FIP. The Marlins have seemingly had Kelly's number as he has faced them three times previously, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. That includes a start here in Arizona last season in which he was tagged for three earned runs on seven hits, including a home run, over five innings in an 11-3 defeat. Like Cabrera, Kelly will also be starting on just four days' rest for the third time this season having allowed seven earned runs in 11 innings in his two previous outings on short rest. The Marlins bullpen has posted a collective 4.94 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road this season while the Arizona relief corps' has struggled lately to the tune of a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last seven games. In fact, over the last seven contests, the two teams have combined to convert only two saves while blowing five. Take the over (8*). |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 228.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The last two games in this series both flew 'over' the total as the Suns answered back after digging an 0-2 hole in Denver with consecutive wins on their home floor. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair in Game 4 (it reached 153 total points) as the Nuggets hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while the Suns got off only 81. Both teams simply shot the lights out. I don't anticipate a repeat performance from either team as the series shifts back to Denver on Tuesday. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 44-21 with the Nuggets playing at home after allowing their opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field in their previous contest, as is the case here. Denver has been stingy defensively at the best of times at home this season, yielding just 108.5 points per game but that number drops to 107.0 ppg when coming off an 'over' result with that spot producing an average total of 225.2 points (Nuggets home games have averaged 227.2 points overall this season). The fact that the 'over' has cashed in consecutive matchups between these two teams is worth noting as we haven't seen three straight 'over' results in this series in the same season since the 2020-21 campaign (and in that case the third game totalled just 227 points). Take the under (8*). |
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05-09-23 | Stars -131 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Kraken took control of this series with a dominant 7-2 victory in Game 3 on Sunday but I look for the Stars to answer back and even the series on Tuesday. Note that Dallas hasn't lost consecutive games since March 14th and 16th. The Stars check in a perfect 6-0 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring foes by an impressive average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. They're also 11-3 when playing on the road after allowing four goals or more in their previous game, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Kraken are just 2-7 when playing at home after winning their previous game by three goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals along the way. While Dallas did allow a whopping seven goals in Sunday's defeat, those type of performances have been few-and-far-between this season as it has been stingy, particularly on the road where it has given up just 2.6 goals per contest, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.8 goals in enemy territory. Take Dallas (10*). |
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05-09-23 | Rangers v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 130 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
American League Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mariners wasted another terrific outing from Logan Gilbert in a 2-1 loss to the Rangers to open this series last night. Now 4.5 games back of division-leading Texas and looking up at three teams in the American League West standings, I look for Seattle to answer back on Tuesday. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers. He had an outlier of a season with the Dodgers last year, an injury-shortened one at that, posting a 3.75 FIP and 1.09 WHIP in 72 2/3 innings of work and that earned him a $12 million contract in the offseason. Not surprisingly, he hasn't been able to reach the same heights back in the American League this year, logging a 6.18 FIP and 1.30 WHIP through six starts spanning 29 1/3 innings. The Mariners will likely be happy to see their old friend (Heaney spent the majority of his career with the division-rival Angels), noting that they're 8-7 all time against him as he has recorded a lofty 4.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. George Kirby will counter for Seattle. After finishing sixth in American League Rookie of the Year voting last season he's picked up right where he left off here in 2023. Kirby checks in sporting a 3.05 FIP and 0.98 WHIP, allowing just 39-of-148 batters he has faced to reach base so far this season. Note that he's faced the Rangers four times previously with Seattle going a perfect 4-0 with three of those wins coming by two runs or more. While it didn't play out that way last night, the two bullpens in this matchup entered the series heading in opposite directions with the Rangers 'pen having logged a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over its last seven games and the Mariners relief corps' having posted a 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the same stretch. Rather than lay the considerable chalk with the Mariners here, we'll sacrifice a run and back them on the run-line, noting that 13 of their 17 victories this season have come by two runs or more. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday. The Lakers thrashed the Warriors by 30 points on Saturday as Golden State had a miserable night shooting the basketball, connecting on just 36-of-91 field goal attempts in the loss. Hidden in that lopsided result was the fact that the Warriors held their sixth straight opponent to 43 or fewer made field goals. Golden State has now limited an incredible 19 of its last 20 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. I am confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back offensively here, noting that they've averaged 120.0 points per game when coming off a contest in which they made good on fewer than 40 field goals this season. We can project Golden State to have plenty of scoring opportunities in this game as the Lakers have now yielded more than 90 field goal attempts to seven straight opponents. While Los Angeles has hung tough in this series going back to the start of the regular season, I don't feel it has all that high of an offensive ceiling, noting that it has topped out at 42 made field goals in seven matchups. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 22-10 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. This is also one our favorite fade spots for the Lakers, as they're a woeful 5-17 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home victory over the last three seasons. Take Golden State (8*). |
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05-08-23 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday and I expect more of the same as they open a three-game series in San Francisco on Monday. Jake Irvin will get the start for the visiting Nationals. He's in the Washington starting rotation due to necessity only at this point. In his first big league start he gave up just one earned run on two hits over 4 1/3 innings but did walk four batters while hitting another with a pitch (and only struck out three). Note that in five starts at the Triple-A level this season, Irvin allowed 36-of-98 batters he faced to reach base and was tagged for three home runs in 22 1/3 innings of work. His counterpart on Monday will be Anthony DeSclafani. The right-hander probably hasn't been quite as good as his sparkling 2.18 ERA would indicate, logging a 3.38 FIP. He does own an impressive 0.82 WHIP as he has issued just three walks in 38 innings of work. Some regression is almost a certainty at this point and here he'll face a Nationals club that has been at its best on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Washington just finished a series in Arizona in which it scored 17 runs across three games. Also note that the Nats scored 28 runs on 45 hits in a three-game series here in San Francisco last year. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. Nationals relievers have combined to post a 4.35 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 10 saves converted and seven blown. Meanwhile, the Giants 'pen has been among the worst in baseball, recording a collective 6.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with nine saves converted and six blown. Take the over (10*). |
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05-08-23 | Rangers v. Mariners -151 | 2-1 | Loss | -151 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Rangers offense has exploded lately, scoring double-digit runs in four of their last six games. You still have to figure Mariners starter Logan Gilbert will be happy to see them on Monday, noting that he owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in seven career starts against them with the Mariners winning five of those games. Gilbert enters this start in excellent form as he has posted a 3.15 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while allowing only 36-of-135 batters he has faced to reach base. While the Rangers have been scoring runs in bunches it still might not be enough for tonight's starter Jon Gray. He enjoyed a renaissance year of sorts in 2022 but hasn't come close to recapturing that magic so far this season, logging a 6.22 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. Of the 131 batters he has faced 45 have reached base including six home runs. Strikeouts have been an issue for the Mariners lineup but Gray hasn't been missing many bats, averaging just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Behind Gray is a Rangers bullpen that started strong this season but has fallen apart lately. Entering yesterday's game, the Texas relief corps had logged a collective 5.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, Rangers relievers have blown as many saves as they've converted (five). In stark contrast, the Mariners bullpen owns a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the season with those numbers dropping to 1.54 and 1.11, respectively, over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Seattle (8*). |
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05-08-23 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Oilers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vegas +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Oilers routed the Golden Knights 5-1 on Saturday after dropping the opener of this series by a 6-4 score. I don't believe this is a series where home ice will matter a great deal, noting that both teams have been terrific on the road this season and certainly in these playoffs (combined 4-1 to date). Vegas checks in 28-15 away from home this season, outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.6 goals along the way. I mentioned the Knights are coming off a lopsided loss in Game 2 and that's notable as they haven't lost consecutive games by two goals or more since November 25th and 26th and that marked the only time it happened all season. Going back over the history of this series (since the Golden Knights joined the league in 2017), the Oilers have never defeated Vegas by multiple goals in consecutive meetings. The Knights have been terrific when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, going 25-11 while outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Oilers are just 7-11 when playing at home off a victory by two goals or more this season and a long-term 18-24 on home ice after scoring three goals or more in five consecutive games, as is the case here. Take Vegas +1.5 goals (8*). |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 228 | Top | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 8 pm et on Sunday. It seems like the oddsmakers are playing 'catch-up' with the totals in this series, making the usual adjustments after the fact but ultimately overreacting in hindsight (as is often the case). Game 1 saw 232 total points so the total was adjusted a couple of points higher for Game 2, which ended up reaching only 184 points. For Game 3, the total was adjusted considerably lower only for that contest to sail 'over' with 235 total points. Here, we're again working with a higher posted total and I believe it will prove too high. The Nuggets were baited into a much faster-paced affair than they probably would have liked in Game 3, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts themselves while allowing the Suns to get off 95. As we anticipated, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant relished the opportunity to play 'hero ball' down 2-0 in the series and with most counting them out with Chris Paul sidelined. The pair combined to knock down 32 field goals and score a whopping 86 points in the victory. I'm confident we'll see the Nuggets make the necessary adjustments here, noting that they had held 10 straight and an incredible 19 of their last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals prior to Phoenix knocking down 48 in that contest. As I mentioned, Denver got off 97 FG attempts in Friday's loss. You would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd to find the last time it hoisted up more than 90 FG attempts in consecutive games though, and those previous two contests still totalled only 193 and 222 points. Phoenix didn't look good defensively in Game 1 of this series but has held Denver to just 36 and 43 made field goals in two games since. Note that the Suns have limited 30 of their last 37 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. While Phoenix went off in Game 3, it had previously been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in five consecutive meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-23 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This matchup screams 'pitcher's duel' on paper with the Dodgers handing the ball to their ace Julio Urias against Joe Musgrove on Sunday. We'll go the other way, however, as neither starter has been able to find their form - at least not consistently - in the early going this season. Of course, in Joe Musgrove's defense, he's only made two starts since returning from injury. Neither outing went well, however, as he has logged an 8.16 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 8 1/3 innings of work, allowing 15-of-39 batters to reach base including four home runs allowed. Concerning is the fact that he also struggled in a pair of minor league starts, allowing 15-of-43 batters to reach base. The Dodgers saw Musgrove four times last season, scoring nine earned runs in 23 1/3 innings. Dodgers starter Julio Urias didn't have a good Spring, or World Baseball Classic for that matter, and has struggled to find any sort of consistency so far this season. Urias checks in sporting a 4.40 FIP and 1.11 WHIP, allowing 45-of-160 batters he has faced to reach base. While he is coming off one of his best outings, allowing just one earned run over seven innings against the slumping Phillies, he'll now be starting on short rest (four days) for the second straight outing - the first time he's done that since last season (June 29th and July 4th). Neither bullpen has been overly impressive in the early going this season. The Dodgers relief corps entered Saturday's action sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while the Padres 'pen had logged a 4.03 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Needless to say, both lineups have the ability to put a lot of pressure on opposing pitching staffs and after a couple of low-scoring games to open this series, I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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05-07-23 | Hurricanes v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 4-8 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New Jersey at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The first two games of this series have gone 'over' the total with the Hurricanes doing most of the heavy-lifting, scoring 11 goals compared to the Devils' two. Note that we haven't seen three straight meetings between these two teams go 'over' the total in the same season since way back in the 2013-14 campaign. You would have to go back to a three-game stretch that spanned between 2019 and 2022 (thanks to Covid) to find the last time any three consecutive matchups between these division rivals went 'over' the total. I would anticipate the Devils turning to Vitek Vanecek between the pipes in Game 3. He's played a big role in New Jersey's incredibly stingy nature here at home this season, where it has allowed just 2.6 goals per game. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 23-9 with the Devils playing at home seeking revenge for a loss by four goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Canes have seen the 'under' go 11-3 when coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals in that situation. Finally, we'll note that Carolina has averaged just 2.3 goals per game with an average total of only 5.2 goals when playing on the road after winning four of its last five contests over the last two seasons (26-game sample size), which is also the situation here. Take the under (8*). |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 228 | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The first two games of this series both went 'over' the total (using the closing total for Game 2, noting the final score fell right around the number) but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Los Angeles for Game 3 on Saturday. Yes, the Warriors continue to give up a ton of scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 15 straight games. However, there's been a method to their madness as they've held 18 of their last 19 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. The Lakers don't figure to be the ones to break through, at least not right now as they've knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven games and that's despite hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. Speaking of defense, Los Angeles turned in a poor effort at that end of the floor in Thursday's predictable Warriors bounce-back game. Still, the Lakers have held eight of their last nine and 12 of their last 15 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. While the Warriors can still get hot at times, as we saw in Game 2 of this series, they've actually made good on 43 or fewer field goals in six of nine games in these playoffs. Also note that while the 'over' has cashed in the first two games of this series, Golden State hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since a four-game 'over' streak way back in early February. The Lakers have had just one 'over' streak last more than two games going all the way back to December 28th, but it was a long one with eight straight contests finding their way 'over' the total from March 26th to April 9th. Take the under (8*). |
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05-06-23 | Oilers -120 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 34 h 24 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Vegas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Golden Knights took Game 1 of this series in a wild 6-4 affair that was probably a little closer than the final score indicates. Edmonton definitely didn't bring its 'A' game (apart from Leon Draisaitl) but it was still right there, pulling within a goal in the third period before the Knight sealed the victory with a late empty-netter. I'm confident we'll see the Oilers bounce back on Saturday. Note that Vegas hasn't won consecutive meetings between these two teams since 2020. Since then, the Oilers have gone 6-3 in this series. I've talked about teams heading into 'uncharted territory' quite often in these playoffs (both NHL and NBA) and I'll bring it up again here as Vegas has now won five straight games. It has only managed to win five or more games in a row twice previously this season and only once has hit won six or more consecutive games with that nine-game winning streak coming way back in late October-early November. Here, we'll note that the Knights have averaged just 2.1 goals per game and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals when playing at home off a win by two goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons (16-game sample size). Meanwhile, the Oilers have held opponents to just 2.5 goals per game and outscored foes by 0.8 goals on average when playing on the road after giving up five goals or more in their previous contest over the last two seasons (20-game sample size). Better still, Edmonton is a perfect 7-0 when playing on the road off a loss by two goals or more against a division foe over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.1 goals in that spot. Finally, the Knights are 4-12 when coming off consecutive home victories by two goals or more in team history, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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05-06-23 | A's v. Royals -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Oakland at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The A's took a wild one in the series-opener between these basement-dwelling clubs last night. I expect the Royals to answer back on Saturday. Ken Waldichuk will take the ball for Oakland, giving the Royals the opportunity to face a southpaw starter for the second straight game after seeing Kyle Muller last night. Note that Kansas City is averaging 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, nearly a full run higher than its season scoring average. Waldichuk has been every bit as bad as his 7.26 ERA indicates, sporting a 7.40 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in six starts spanning 31 innings of work this season. Behind him is a majors-worst bullpen that has logged a collective 6.80 ERA and 1.74 WHIP with only three saves converted and nine blown. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He's had an up-and-down start to the 2023 campaign after pitching well for the Royals last season (3.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 153 1/3 innings pitched in 2022). Singer has been marginally better than his inflated 8.49 ERA indicates this season, posting a 5.05 FIP and 1.52 WHIP (still ugly numbers, I know). After turning in arguably his best start of the young season in Arizona two outings back, he made his next appearance on short (four days) rest in Minnesota and proceeded to get shelled for eight earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings. He's back on schedule here, pitching on full (five days) rest and facing an A's lineup that has just one hitter that has seen him before (Tony Kemp - 0-for-9 career against Singer). Two other A's, Seth Brown and Aledmys Diaz, have worn Singer out in the past but both are currently sidelined due to injury. The Royals bullpen has been almost as bad as that of the A's so far this season. However, on a positive note, they kept a number of their key relievers idle in last night's defeat. I mentioned Oakland's penchant for collapsing late with nine blown saves already this season. In stark contrast, the Royals have converted five saves while blowing only four. While Kansas City has just two home victories to its credit this season, both came by multiple runs. On the flip side, nine of the A's 11 road defeats have come by at least two runs with seven of those coming by four runs or more. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Friday. The word 'sweep' is being thrown around quite a bit as this series shifts to Phoenix with the Suns licking their wounds following consecutive double-digit losses in Denver. Yes, the Suns are in tough with Chris Paul sidelined, likely for the next three games, due to a groin injury suffered in Game 2. His absence likely means more time with the ball in the hands of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and I don't think it's a stretch to say that duo is likely relishing the opportunity to play 'hero ball' on Friday night. Cam Payne and Damion Lee project to absorb Chris Paul's minutes. Both struggled mightily in Game 2 of this series but I'm confident they can bounce back at home. Payne in particular has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of his young career and this is obviously a big opportunity to showcase his talent. While the Nuggets have won consecutive games to open this series, they're heading into uncharted territory now, having now won more than two meetings in a row against the Suns since 2019-20 when they reeled off five straight victories in this series (3-2 ATS). Here, we'll note that Denver is a long-term 126-169 ATS when playing on the road after winning its last two games ATS. Worse still, the Nuggets check in 6-17 ATS when coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons. Phoenix on the other hand has gone 28-15 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.8 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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05-05-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | 114-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Celtics made the necessary adjustments after a poor defensive showing in Game 1 of this series and ultimately thrashed the 76ers by 34 points in Game 2 on Wednesday. I expect the 76ers to answer back as the series shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3 on Friday. While it's difficult to term any playoff game as a 'throwaway affair' but I think Game 2 of this series did quickly devolve into that type of contest for the 76ers. They ultimately hoisted up only 79 field goal attempts (and connected on just 31) in that uninspiring effort. Of course, the Sixers had already accomplished what they set out to do in the first two games in Boston and that was earn a split. A letdown was almost surely in order. Here, I'm confident it will be Philadelphia that makes the necessary adjustments, noting that it allowed Boston to get off 92 field goal attempts in Game 2 - the first time in seven games it yielded more than 83 FG attempts to its opponent. Still, the Sixers have limited seven straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Philadelphia has allowed 110.2 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 104.3 ppg allowed when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here, outscoring foes by an average margin of 7.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Boston averages 116.1 points per game on the road this season but that scoring average drops to 110.7 ppg when coming off a win over a division opponent. Finally, we'll note that the 76ers are 42-26 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Doc Rivers, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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05-05-23 | Red Sox v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enter Friday's series-opener riding 'over' streaks with the Red Sox having seen each of their last four games (all against the Blue Jays) sail 'over' the total and the Phillies coming off a three-game set against the Dodgers in which all three contests went 'over' the total as well. I expect a similar story to unfold on Friday. One week ago tonight the Red Sox put plenty of pressure on Guardians ace Shane Bieber but couldn't break through in a 5-2 defeat. Since then, they've exploded for 8, 7, 6, 7, 8 and 11 runs over their last six games. Of course, they've also allowed five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 contests but we'll get to that in a moment. While the Sox draw a tough matchup in Phillies ace Zack Wheeler on Friday, I'm confident they'll be able to find continued success. After a shaky start to the season, Wheeler has turned it around over his last several starts, lowering his FIP to 2.54 and his WHIP to 1.22. Those numbers are relatively on par with what we've seen from the underrated right-hander going back to the start of 2021. With that being said, I do think he's in for some regression to the mean in terms of home runs allowed (he's given up just one in 32 2/3 innings of work this season) and what better opponent to contribute to that than the Red Sox, who have already mashed 46 home runs this season. I'll also point out that Wheeler has yet to work beyond the sixth inning this season and just twice in his last 18 outings going back to last year, leaving the door open for a struggling Phillies bullpen to step in and make things interesting, noting it has logged a collective 5.59 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season. Chris Sale will get the start for the visiting Red Sox. He was terrific in his most recent outing against the slumping Guardians. That start came at home, where he's pitched reasonably well this season. The road has been another story as he has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in three outings spanning 14 innings of work. Overall, Sale checks in sporting a 4.63 FIP and 1.47 WHIP with 47 of the 134 batters he has faced reaching base. He'll be up against a rejuvenated Phillies lineup that just welcomed back Bryce Harper earlier this week. Harper proceeded to go 3-for-3 in his second game back. Table-setter Trea Turner enters this series on a five-game hitting streak. There's danger up and down the Philadelphia lineup and this is obviously a team built for its home ballpark, averaging 4.6 runs per game in 13 home games so far this season (compared to its season scoring average of 4.3 rpg). The Red Sox bullpen has held up well, much better than I expected at the outset of the season, logging a collective 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, it does enter this contest having not had a day off since April 27th and we're talking about a relief corps that has been overworked, having already been called into action for 128 1/3 innings this season. I can't help but think some regression will be coming for the Boston 'pen and the Phillies lineup poses a significant challenge. Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -195 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This price may seem high at first glance but I believe it could be even higher. Scoring first (and early) might just have been the worst thing that could have happened to the favored Stars in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. Dallas probably thought the relatively inexperienced Kraken would fold rather quickly and that this series might just be the lopsided affair that many were predicting after Seattle pulled off its stunning upset win over the heavily-favored Avalanche in Game 7 of round one just two nights earlier. Instead, Seattle answered right back and ultimately scored four first period goals before allowing the Stars to rally back from a two-goal third period deficit. The Kraken ultimately won that game in overtime but I look for the Stars to answer back on Thursday. Note that Dallas has now dropped consecutive matchups with Seattle after winning four of the first five all-time meetings in the series. The Stars have averaged 3.8 goals per game while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals when playing at home seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons (22-game sample size), as is the case here. While Dallas averages 3.5 goals per game this season, that number jumps to 3.8 when playing at home after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest (10-game sample size). As I noted in my analysis of Game 1 of this series, the Stars have had Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer's number, scoring 13 goals in three games against him going back to the start of last season. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger didn't have his best performance on Tuesday but actually kept the Stars in the game over the final two periods of regulation time and ultimately stopped 39-of-44 shots. The Stars haven't lost consecutive games since March 14th and 16th while the Kraken's most recent winning streak lasting more than two games (their current streak) came when they reeled off five straight wins from April 3rd to 10th (note that three of those victories came against the Coyotes and the other two were against the Canucks and Blackhawks - all non-playoff contending teams). Take Dallas (8*). |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers stunned the Warriors by a score of 117-112 in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday as Golden State had an awful shooting night and ultimately fell just short. I'm confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back in Game 2 on Thursday. Note that Golden State got off a whopping 106 field goal attempts in the series-opener. That marked the sixth time since February 23rd that the Warriors hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts. The Lakers haven't had the ability (or interest) in limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 14 contests. Give a team as talented as the Warriors enough opportunities and they're going to take advantage and I think we'll see that on Thursday. On the flip side, Golden State allowed Los Angeles to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in Game 1 of this series. Interestingly, the Warriors have now held 17 of their last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. That's impressive when you consider each of their last 14 opponents have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 32-18 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here (the Lakers have actually won four straight meetings in this series). While the Warriors have averaged 118.6 points per game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 points, they've scored an average of 120.3 points per game while outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points on average when coming off an ATS loss (15-6 ATS in that situation). Finally, the Lakers are 15-29 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories over the last three seasons, which is the situation here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-04-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. Mariners starter George Kirby was a hard-luck loser in his most recent outing, working eight dominant innings against the Phillies but ultimately falling short in a 1-0 defeat. His 2-2 record through five starts overshadows just how effective he's been in his second big league season. Kirby checks in sporting a terrific 2.93 ERA but he's arguably been even better than that, logging a 2.61 FIP and 0.95 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings of work. Of the 120 batters he has faced, only 31 have reached base, including just a single home run allowed and a ridiculous two walks issued. While Kirby's results against the A's were a mixed bag in four starts last season (ERA north of four), most of the damage was done by players no longer on the A's roster (Sean Murphy and Stephen Vogt in particular). His counterpart on Thursday will be Drew Rucinski. The right-hander likely wouldn't be starting in most other big league rotations but such is the state of the A's pitching staff. Rucinski checks in sporting a 5.83 FIP and 2.12 WHIP in just 5 2/3 innings of work. I realize we're talking about a small sample size but the fact that 12 of the 28 batters he has faced have reached base is alarming. Also note that prior to getting called up, Rucinski had posted a 6.52 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings at the minor league level this season. Prior to that, he hadn't pitched with any major league organization since he was a member of the Marlins back in 2018. Of course, it's the A's bullpen that is even more concerning. Oakland relievers have combined to post a 7.07 ERA and 1.79 WHIP this season with only three saves converted and a whopping nine blown. Contrast that with the Mariners 'pen, which has logged a collective 2.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 1.21 and 1.12, respectively, over the last seven games. Seattle relievers have combined to close out 10 saves while blowing just four. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-04-23 | Brewers -143 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers have inexplicably dropped the first two games of this series against the lowly Rockies but they're well-positioned to avoid the sweep on Thursday afternoon as they send veteran left-hander Wade Miley to the hill against Connor Seabold of the Rockies. Miley is having a fine campaign. While he's probably not pitching quite as well as his sparkling 1.86 ERA would indicate, he's still been incredibly effective, posting a 3.46 FIP and 1.00 WHIP through five starts spanning 29 innings of work. Only 30 of the 115 batters Miley has faced have managed to reach base. Meanwhile, Colorado will give Connor Seabold a turn in the rotation after he failed to cut it with the Red Sox (a fairly pitching-starved team right now). In 18 1/3 big league innings last year, Seabold was lit up to the tune of a 6.38 FIP and 2.35 WHIP, allowing 46-of-98 batters to reach base. He's been a little better pitching out of the bullpen for Colorado so far this season but that's not saying much. Seabold still owns a 3.72 FIP and 1.54 WHIP, allowing 25-of-65 batters to reach base. It rarely gets better for the Rockies as the game progresses, noting that their bullpen has logged a collective 4.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP with four saves converted and three blown this season. Compare that to the Brewers 'pen, which has recorded a 3.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while converting nine saves and blowing just four. It's also worth noting that Colorado's 'pen has been pressed into action for just shy of 20 innings more than that of Milwaukee. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 217 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series sailed 'over' the total witb both teams shooting the lights out in a 119-115 76ers victory in Boston. I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring affair in the series-opener. Philadelphia hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while Boston got off just 75 in a stunning home defeat. Note that the 76ers knocked down 45 field goals - just the fourth time in their last 17 games that they managed to connect on more than 42 field goals. On the flip side, the 44 made field goals they allowed served as the first time in six games they yielded 40 or more successful field goal attempts. In fact, Philadelphia has still limited 18 of its last 23 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Boston hasn't been as stout defensively as we've become accustomed to seeing in these playoffs, I am confident it can bounce back from Monday's poor showing in Game 2. Note that the Celtics have held 18 of their last 21 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals - not a bad high-water mark in that department when you consider they've allowed 89 or more FG attempts in 10 straight and 14 of their last 15 contests. As I've noted previously in these playoffs, the C's have been yielding too many scoring opportunities but the 76ers are unlikely to continue to push the pace the way they did in Game 1, noting they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 13 of their last 16 games and average just 84 FG attempts per game this season. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are heading into uncharted territory having matched their longest 'over' streak of the season at five games. Interestingly, the only previous time they posted five consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total against these same 76ers. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey and Carolina at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of relatively high-scoring affairs to open the second round of the NHL Playoffs last night. I expect nothing of the sort as the Devils and Hurricanes do battle in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semi-final series on Wednesday, however. New Jersey has averaged 3.4 goals per game this season but its offensive production fell off a cliff in round one against the Rangers, partly by design. The Devils averaged only 2.4 goals per contest during that seven-game series and we got a pretty good indication of how they want to play in the postseason as they often sat back defensively, waiting for the opportunity to counter-attack, ultimately firing fewer than 30 shots on goal in five of seven contests. I don't think Lindy Ruff's team will want to trade scoring opportunities with Carolina either, certainly not in the first two games of the series here in Raleigh. Note that the Hurricanes offense wasn't exactly humming in the opening round either, averaging 2.7 goals per game over the course of that six-game series against the Islanders. The Canes have of course had to make some adjustments with Andrei Svechnikov - scoring option 1B to Sebastian Aho's 1A - going down with a season-ending injury late in the regular season and then losing Teuvo Teravainen to a broken hand in round one as well. Carolina boasts one of the strongest defensive corps of any team remaining in the NHL Playoffs and I believe that group will prove difficult to break down in this series. The Canes have allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season with that number dropping to 2.2 when coming off a victory over a divisional opponent (13-game sample size), as is the case here. It's worth mentioning that while these two teams have met eight times since the start of 2022, we could be seeing a new goaltending matchup here as Devils breakout netminder Akira Schmid has never faced Carolina while Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen hasn't taken the crease against New Jersey since he was a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs (he owns a 2.11 goals against average .934 save percentage in nine career games vs. the Devils). Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 157-109 with the Devils coming off a home win in which they scored four goals or more, which is the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-23 | Guardians v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games of this series have been of the low-scoring variety with the two teams trading victories. I expect a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale in the Bronx. Shane Bieber will take the ball for the visiting Guardians. While he's pitched well in the early going this season, he perhaps hasn't quite lived up to lofty expectations. Note that his 3.63 FIP would serve as a career-high while his 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings would mark a career-low. In his most recent start last Friday, he worked himself in and out of trouble on numerous occasions in an eventual 5-2 win over the Red Sox. Note that Bieber has recorded more than four strikeouts in a game only once in six starts this season and that's despite working at least into the sixth inning in all six of those outings. I'll also point out that this will be his first start on short (four days) rest this season. He owns a 5.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in six career starts against the Yankees. Clarke Schmidt remains in the Yankees starting rotation out of necessity only. You have to wonder if he's long for a big league rotation based on how things have gone for the right-hander so far this season. Schmidt checks in sporting a 5.53 FIP and 1.68 WHIP in 25 innings of work - a far cry from the 3.60 FIP and 1.20 WHIP he posted mostly working out of the bullpen last year. Of the 119 batters Schmidt has faced this season, 44 have reached base. He's already been tagged for seven home runs. Now he faces a Guardians lineup that as I've mentioned on numerous occasions this season is ultra-aggressive and has speed to burn on the basepaths, having already racked up 35 stolen bases this season. They're going to apply plenty of pressure on Schmidt and you have to figure they're in line for a breakout performance after being held to just six runs over the last three games. Note that Cleveland entered last night's contest averaging 4.5 runs per game on the road this season. Both bullpens are elite and have certainly excelled so far this season. I will point out that the Yankees have used key reliever Wandy Peralta in each of the first two games in this series meaning he's likely unavailable on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Guardians 'pen has been dealing with a tough stretch from usually-reliable setup man James Karinchak. I do think the terrific overall numbers from both relief corps' have been properly factored in when you consider this relatively-low posted total. Take the over (8*). |
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05-02-23 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 227 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams wrapped up round one of the NBA Playoffs with consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' went 4-1 in the final five games of the Lakers 4-2 series win over the Grizzlies. The 'under' cashed in four of the last six games in the Warriors 4-3 series victory over the Kings. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 1 of this Western Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday, however. Both of these teams invite up-tempo play from the opposition. Interestingly, the Lakers allowed 93, 106 (aided by overtime), 99 and 96 field goal attempts over their last four games against the Grizzlies. Memphis was simply unable to take advantage of its wealth of scoring opportunities, running cold at the absolute worst time (the Grizzlies made good on 44 or fewer field goals in all six contests). I don't expect the Warriors to suffer the same fate. The ramped up offensively as the series went on against the Kings, knocking down 40 or more field goals and hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four of the final five games in the opening round. In fact, Golden State has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in nine of its last 12 contests and has hoisted up 100 or more FG attempts on five different occasions since February 23rd. On the flip side, the Warriors have yielded 90 or more FG attempts to their opponents in an incredible 13 straight games. With the Lakers rounding into form offensively, making good on more than 40 field goals in 11 of their last 14 contests and getting off 90 or more FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 overall, I believe this game sets up as a potential track meet. Keep in mind, the Lakers - despite not always being at full strength - managed to knock down 40 or more field goals in all four regular season meetings with the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State had little trouble finding looks, hoisting up 99, 96, 105 and 91 FG attempts in those four matchups. In eight meetings between these two teams since the start of last season, the low water mark in terms of points scored for either team was 103 with both teams putting up more than 110 points in five of those eight contests. Take the over (10*). |
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05-02-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 5-4 | Win | 109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Dallas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams enter this series riding 'under' streaks. The final four games of the Kraken's stunning first round upset of the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche stayed 'under' the total while the Stars saw each of their last three contests against the Wild cruise 'under' the total as well. I expect a different story to unfold as the two teams meet in the postseason for the first time on Tuesday. While Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer certainly appeared to have the Avs number in round one, I think he'll be hard-pressed to repeat his heroics here in round two. Note that Dallas has faced Grubauer twice in the brief series history between these two teams, scoring nine goals in those two contests. It's actually a similar story for the Kraken against Stars netminder Jake Oettinger. He's been between the pipes for Dallas in all six previous meetings in this series with Seattle scoring 18 goals and no fewer than two goals in any of those games. Of course, it's not all about the goaltenders. We're going to need this game to open up considerably compared to what we saw in the latter stages of the two teams' respective opening round series'. Here, we'll note that while Seattle averages 3.4 goals per game on the season, that average rises to 3.8 when playing on the road off a road victory (29-game sample size), as is the case here. The Stars have been fairly stingy on home ice, allowing just 2.7 goals per game this season but that average jumps to 4.0 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored five goals or more (eight-game sample size), which is also the situation here (Kraken won the last meeting 5-4 in Dallas). In fact, the 'over' has gone a perfect 5-0 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, with that spot producing an average total of 9.2 goals. While playoff hockey tends to be lower-scoring, I would argue that the stakes were similarly high for both teams - keeping in mind this is only Game 1 of this series - when they matched up three times over an 11-day span back in March (the Kraken were fighting to get in the playoffs while the Stars were battling for playoff seeding). Those three games totalled seven, seven and nine goals (the last result was aided by overtime). Take the over (8*). |
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05-02-23 | Reds v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The series-opener between these two teams sailed 'over' the total last night as the Padres cruised to an 8-3 victory - their third win in a row. After a red hot stretch at the plate last week (30 runs in four games), Cincinnati has cooled off, scoring only 10 runs over their last three contests. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair at Petco Park on Tuesday. Graham Ashcraft will get the start for the visiting Reds. I consider him to be one of the more underrated young starters in baseball, noting that he posted a 4.21 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in 105 innings of work during his rookie campaign last year - not bad numbers at all when you consider the majority of his starts take place at the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. So far this season, Ashcraft has recorded a 3.82 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, working at least six innings in four of his five starts to date. Note that he held opponents to less than 1.0 home run and 3.0 walks per nine innings last season. He's once again keeping the ball in the park this year, yielding just one home run in 30 frames of work - that coming in his first outing of the season. His walks are up but I am confident he can regain his command and he's made up for it by increasing his strikeouts per nine innings and limiting his hits allowed. All told, only 36-of-123 batters he has faced have reached base. With only 16 stolen bases so far this season, the Padres don't tend to put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with men on base. Note also that San Diego entered this series averaging just 3.2 runs per game at Petco Park this season. Veteran Michael Wacha will take the ball for the Padres. He's been better than his inflated 6.75 ERA would indicate, logging a 4.46 FIP and 1.58 WHIP through five starts. Not impressive numbers by any means but they're largely due to consecutive rocky outings in mid-April. He pitched reasonably well last time out, holding a good Cubs lineup to four hits, one walk and three earned runs over five innings. Behind Wacha is a Padres bullpen that I believe is in for some positive regression having entered this series sporting a collective 4.43 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. On a positive note, San Diego has converted 11 saves while blowing only four (entering Monday's action). The Reds bullpen has actually been getting stronger as the season goes on. Entering this series, Cincinnati relievers had logged a collective 2.96 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last seven games. Blown saves have been an issue with six on the season but the Reds don't project to be playing with a lead late in this game (of course it's always a possibility). Both teams were able to keep most of their key relievers rested last night, especially the Padres, who got six solid innings from starter Blake Snell and only used two relief arms in Steven Wilson and Domingo Tapia. Take the under (8*). |
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05-01-23 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring weekend series'. In fact, the Phillies saw all three games in Houston stay 'under' the total and enter the new week on a four-game 'under' streak. Meanwhile, the Dodgers seven-game 'over' streak ground to a halt in a 1-0 victory over the Cardinals on Saturday before yesterday's game snuck 'under' the total as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday. Philadelphia will hand the ball to Taijuan Walker. He's had a bit of a rocky start to the campaign and doesn't figure to turn it around against a Dodgers club that has given him plenty of trouble over the course of his career (4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 12 career starts against them). Last season, Walker faced the Dodgers twice, allowing five earned runs on 12 hits and four walks while striking out only seven in 11 innings. So far this season, Walker has been about as bad as his 4.97 ERA indicates, sporting a 5.28 FIP and 1.38 WHIP with 35 of the 108 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles. He'll be making just his second start of the season after a brief return last week. He's certainly not in midseason form just yet, noting that he has allowed five walks in just 6 1/3 innings split between Triple-A and the bigs so far this season. The Phillies are seeing right-handed starters well this season, averaging 5.0 runs per game against them. Note that Gonsolin is unlikely to work deep into this game in just his second start back from injury and that's notable as the Dodgers bullpen hasn't been nearly as steady as we've become accustomed to, logging a collective 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP so far this season. It's been a similar story for the Phillies bullpen, which has posted a 4.42 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Take the over (8*). |
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05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10:05 pm et on Monday. Game 1 of this series managed to creep 'over' the total thanks to a tremendous offensive performance from the Nuggets. That contest marked only the second time all season that Denver hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts in a game. I certainly feel that the Suns expected the Nuggets to employ a different, slower-paced offensive gameplan than they did in the series-opener so now it's on Phoenix to make the necessary adjustments defensively. Note that the Suns have only had eight previous what I would term 'outlier' poor defensive efforts - games in which they allowed 48 or more made field goals (as they did in Game 1 of this series). Following those contests, they've allowed 95, 128, 111, 121, 112, 106, 94 and 115 points in their next game, so a bit all over the place, but generally-speaking, they've allowed just north of 110 points per game in that situation, which is right around two points per game below their season average. All that is to say, I do expect Phoenix to bounce back from a defensive standpoint in Game 2. On the flip side, however, I think the Suns are still going to be in tough. Note that Denver has now held 16 of its last 19 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Only four of their last 19 opponents have gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts and one of those was aided by overtime. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive games involving the Nuggets for the first time since March 10th to 14th. Note that they've incredibly had just three 'over' streaks last three games or more this season with none of those lasting longer than four contests. Take the under (8*). |
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05-01-23 | Rangers +110 v. Devils | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Rangers answered back with a resounding 5-2 home win on Saturday to force a seventh-and-deciding game in this series. While the home team has now won back-to-back contests, home ice advantage hasn't meant much in the long-term picture in this series with the visiting side prevailing in 14 of the last 25 matchups. The Devils find themselves in tough off that lopsided defeat on Saturday, noting that they're just 7-17 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which they allowed five goals or more against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goal in that situation. Say what you will about the Rangers up-and-down nature in this series but at least their best players have lived up their billing for the most part. Meanwhile, the Devils have received just four assists and a -1 rating from captain Nico Hischier and no points and a -3 from highly-touted pre-trade deadline acquisition Timo Meier. Jack Hughes can't shoulder the entire offensive load, noting that he has scored three of the team's 13 goals in this series but has found the back of the net just once in the last four games. Meanwhile, the Rangers finally uncovered some cracks in breakout goaltender Akira Schmid's armor on Saturday (he was pulled after allowing five goals on 29 shots). I'm comfortable backing the Blueshirts at an underdog price with all-world goaltender Igor Shesterkin having been at his best on the road all season, where he has recorded a .923 save percentage with New York winning 19 of his 28 starts. I'm still not sure we've seen his best game in this series. Take New York (8*). |
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05-01-23 | Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Nationals avoided a sweep at the hands of the Pirates with a 7-2 victory yesterday, also marking their second straight 'over' result. Note that they've recorded an 'over' streak lasting three games only once previously this season and that came during a series at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. Drew Smyly will take the ball for the visiting Cubs on Monday. He of course flirted with a perfect game two starts back before allowing two earned runs over five innings in a 5-3 loss to the Padres last time out. There's no denying Smyly has enjoyed a renaissance of sorts so far this season, recording a 3.24 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. He's allowed just 28 of the 110 batters he has faced to reach base. In his lone outing against Washington last season, Smyly gave up just two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work in a 3-2 victory here in D.C. Of note, neither of Smyly's last two starts have stayed 'under' the total. He hasn't gone three consecutive outings without an 'under' result since back in 2021 when he posted a five-start 'over' streak. Mackenzie Gore will counter for Washington. He was one of the big pieces coming over in the Juan Soto trade last Summer. Gore has been good but not great so far this season although his numbers are somewhat skewed by one bad outing in which he couldn't make it through the fourth inning against the Angels back on April 12th (that game still totalled only five runs). Through five starts, the left-hander has logged a 3.53 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. Walks have certainly been an issue as he has handed out north of 5.0 free passes per nine innings. However, Gore does have the ability to erase those walks thanks to his high strikeout rate. He is K'ing just shy of 12.0 batters per nine innings. The Cubs should help his cause, noting that they've already struck out 224 times this season - an average of over eight K's per game. The two bullpens are a bit of a mixed bag. Cubs relievers have posted a collective 3.98 ERA and 1.23 WHIP but have converted only three saves while blowing four. Meanwhile, the Nationals 'pen has recorded a 4.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with seven saves converted and four blown. What I do like about the two bullpens is the fact that neither has been truly overworked with the Cubs logging 97 1/3 innings and the Nats' working 96 2/3 frames. Take the under (8*). |
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04-30-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has now cashed in three straight games in this series and that's not a trend I expect to reverse in Game 7 on Sunday. Keep in mind, we've previously seen a six-game 'under' streak between these two teams and that's notable when you consider there have only been 12 all-time meetings. Similarly, the Avalanche's current three-game 'under' streak has been topped by four previous 'under' runs lasting four games or more this season and that includes a December stretch that saw nine straight games stay 'under' the total. The Kraken have had three previous 'under' streaks lasting more than three games this season as well. We know Seattle will want to make this game as ugly as possible as it looks to pull off the major round one upset in enemy territory. Note that the 'under' is 22-11 with Seattle coming off a game in which it allowed four goals or more this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has gone 24-17-3 in Colorado's home games this season, where it has given up just 2.7 goals per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-23 | Reds v. A's OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday after Friday's series-opener produced a whopping 18 total runs. I'm expecting more in the way of offense on Sunday as the Reds send Nick Lodolo to the mound against Ken Waldichuk of the A's. Lodolo finished sixth in National League Rookie of the Year voting last season but hasn't been able to recapture that same form here in 2023, logging a 4.92 FIP and 1.87 WHIP. Of the 125 batters Lodolo has faced, 52 have reached base. While the A's have one of the worst offenses in baseball, we did see they're capable of rising up on occasion in Friday's seven-run outburst and I do think they're well-positioned to produce on Sunday as well. Waldichuk may not be long for a big league rotation based on how his career has started. He was good but certainly not great in 30-plus innings last year but 2023 has been disastrous. He's been every bit as bad as his 7.82 ERA indicates, perhaps even worse, posting a 8.10 FIP and 1.74 WHIP while allowing 46 of the 119 batters he has faced to reach base. Worse still, he's already been tagged for nine home runs - that's north of 3.0 long balls per nine innings. Behind Waldichuk is an A's bullpen that has been dreadful this season, entering yesterday's action sporting a collective 7.03 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Keep in mind, Oakland blew yesterday's game in the ninth inning, coughing up a 2-1 lead in a 3-2 defeat. The Reds 'pen entered Saturday's action having logged a collective 3.62 ERA and 1.27 WHIP but has blown five saves. Take the over (8*). |
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04-30-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 229.5 | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We've seen three of the first six games go 'under' the total in this series including Game 6 on Friday, which reached just 217 points. A considerable adjustment has been made to the total for game 7 - this is the lowest total we've seen all series. I still feel the number is too high. Note that the Warriors have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals, despite allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in 13 of those contests. With that being said, Golden State will need to make adjustments here after De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk went off on Friday night - similar to the situation they were in following the series-opener (note that Game 2 totalled just 220 points with the Kings knocking down only 42 field goals). The Kings are a better defensive team than most give them credit for and they certainly showed that in Game 6 on Friday. Save for an awful defensive effort in a 123-116 loss here at home in Game 5, they've held up reasonably well at that end of the floor in this series, noting that they've limited the Warriors to 90 or fewer field goal attempts in four of six games. Sacramento has held 11 of its last 14 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (8*). |
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04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | 107-125 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The last time these two teams met on April 6th in Phoenix they combined to score 234 points. Not entirely due to that result but likely in part, we're working with a higher posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. Note that while both the Suns and Nuggets offenses were on point in the opening round, I've been impressed by the two teams' defensive play as well. Phoenix enters this game having held five straight and 13 of their last 14 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. That's despite allowing eight of those opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. I don't anticipate the Nuggets looking to speed things up here. They've hoisted up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last eight games. Denver has held eight straight and 17 of its last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. The Nuggets really clamped down defensively against the Timberwolves in the opening round, limiting them to 81 or fewer FG attempts in four of five games (the only game where they didn't went to overtime). While both teams shot exceptionally well in the first meeting of the season back on Christmas Day, since then we've seen Denver hold Phoenix to just 39, 37 and 41 made field goals in three matchups. I realize the Suns are a different team with Kevin Durant joining the fold but were they really all that different in the opening round against the Clippers? In that series they knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in four of six games. Noting that the 'under' is 14-6 with the Nuggets seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 224.9 points in that situation, we'll look precisely that way in Game 1 on Saturday. Take the under (8*). |
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04-29-23 | Devils v. Rangers -119 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rangers have inexplicably dropped three straight games and now face elimination at the hands of the rival Devils at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. New Jersey is an elite team - it wasn't simply going to roll over after digging itself an 0-2 hole in this series. Remember, just a week ago, the Rangers were returning home up 2-0 in the series and most were already punching their ticket to the next round. I do like the fact that Game 5 of this series was so lopsided in favor of New Jersey. Note that the Rangers have averaged 4.8 goals per game and outscored the opposition by 1.2 goals on average when coming off a road loss by two goals or more this season (five-game sample size). While they did lose in the same situation on Thursday, the Blueshirts are still 27-15 when seeking revenge for two or more consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 1.2 goals along the way. You would have to go back to 2020-21 to find the last time the Devils won three straight meetings in this series. They would go on to lose the next matchup by a 6-1 score. Finally, we'll note that the Devils are a long-term 17-29 when coming off three straight games in which they allowed one goal or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Rangers are a long-term 117-87 when coming off three consecutive losses. Take New York (10*). |
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04-29-23 | Guardians v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. With last night's 5-2 victory here at Fenway Park, the Guardians have now seen four straight and nine of their last 10 games overall stay 'under' the total. Last night's contest certainly appeared headed in the other direction before the scoring fizzled late. Keep in mind, Boston has posted an 8-3 o/u mark over its last 11 games. I'm anticipating a fairly high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon in Beantown. Zach Plesac will take the ball for the Guardians. He's probably been better than his 6.50 ERA this season but that's not saying much as he still owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.83 WHIP. We can certainly expect some regression to the mean in terms of his hits allowed as he's currently giving up a ridiculous 14.5 hits per nine innings. However, that doesn't mean that a matchup with the Red Sox at Fenway Park is an ideal spot to turn things around. Note that Boston has seen Plesac once in each of the last two seasons, plating six earned runs on 11 hits in 10 innings. Brayan Bello will counter for the Red Sox. While he's had plenty of success at the minor league level going back to the start of last season, that hasn't translated over to the bigs. He owns a 6.35 FIP and 2.18 WHIP in two outings so far this season, allowing nearly half (17) of the batters he's faced (39) to reach base. As I've noted on more than one occasion this season, if you're going to put runners on base against the Guardians, you're likely going to pay for it as they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths, stealing 31 bases already this season. Cleveland used two of its key bullpen arms to close out last night's game in Trevor Stephan and closer Emmanuel Clase. That duo has worked in each of the last two games but did have a day off on Thursday. With setup man James Karinchak struggling lately, they could be used again on Saturday and I simply question whether they can be as effective as usual. The Red Sox bullpen has exceeded expectations this season, logging a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.22 WHIP entering this series. I do expect to see some regression from their relief corps moving forward, noting that we already saw some of that heading into this series with Sox relievers having posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven games. They're in a favorable spot as far as bullpen rest goes after Kutter Crawford finished the game with four solid innings in relief of starter Nick Pivetta last night. But again, I like the matchup for the Guardians bats regardless who the Red Sox trot out to the mound. Take the over (10*). |
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04-29-23 | Reds -144 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The A's early season slide continued last night as they dropped an 11-7 decision in the opener of this Interleague series. Cincinnati has quietly reeled off four straight wins and I don't expect it to break stride on Saturday afternoon at the Coliseum. Hunter Greene will take the ball for the visiting Reds. I consider him to be one of the more underrated young starters in baseball right now. He posted a respectable 4.37 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while logging 125 2/3 innings at the big league level last season and has been even better so far this year. Greene checks in sporting a 2.48 FIP and 1.39 WHIP through five starts, spanning 23 innings of work. After struggling a bit in his first two starts of the season, the right-hander has settled in, allowing only four earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only two over his last three outings covering a span of 15 innings. It's a much different story for A's starter Kyle Muller. He was of course a key piece coming over in the Sean Murphy trade to Atlanta. I have to wonder if the book is out on the young left-hander as he has been lit up in each of his last three starts. Muller has logged a 5.33 FIP and 2.03 WHIP in five starts spanning 23 2/3 innings so far in 2023. He has allowed 50 of the 119 batters he's faced to reach base. That's not good news as he prepares to face a Reds club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season, hitting a collective .278 while averaging north of 6.0 runs per game. Behind Muller is an A's bullpen that entered this series sporting a collective 6.75 ERA and 1.71 WHIP with those numbers only getting worse after last night's debacle. On the flip side, the Reds 'pen has impressed, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.26 WHIP entering this series but even better, a 1.25 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over the last seven games. Closing out games has been a bit of an issue, already with five blown saves on the campaign, but my thought here is that their lead will be big enough late to keep that wart hidden. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 219 | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Games 1 and 4 in this series but were fortunate to cash the latter thanks only to overtime. The other three games all stayed 'under' the total and I expect a similar outcome on Friday as well. The Lakers are thriving in this series largely due to their defensive play. They've held the Grizzlies to 44 or fewer made field goals in all five games despite Memphis hoisting up at least 89 field goal attempts in every contest. In fact, Los Angeles has limited 10 of its last 13 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Since allowing the Lakers to knock down a whopping 49 field goals in Games 1, the Grizzlies have settled in defensively as well, holding Los Angeles to 41 or fewer made field goals in each of the last four contests. Only two of their last nine opponents have knocked down more than 44 field goals. While the Grizzlies average 113.7 points per game on the road this season, that number falls to 107.7 as a road underdog. The Lakers, meanwhile, have been a better defensive team at home this season, yielding 113.2 points per contest, while their offense has been only 0.1 point per game better than their season scoring average here at Crypto.com Arena. Take the under (8*). |
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04-28-23 | Avalanche -145 v. Seattle Kraken | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Inexplicably, we've only really seen the Avalanche truly raise their level of play once in this series, that coming in their 6-4 Game 3 victory right here in Seattle. From there, with a 2-1 series lead, it appeared the Avs would cruise but an overtime loss in Game 4 seemed to turn the tide back in the Kraken's direction and Seattle would go on to steal (they were fully deserving of the win) a victory in Colorado in Game 5. The Avs were without arguably the best defenseman in the world in Cale Makar for that contest due to suspension but he'll be back on Friday. Here, we'll note that Colorado has allowed just 2.1 goals per game and outscored opponents by 1.1 goal on average when coming off a one-goal home loss this season (nine-game sample size). Similarly, they've yielded just 2.2 goals per contest and outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season (14-game sample size). The Kraken are just 8-15 when coming off two wins in their last three games this season, outscored by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. These two teams have met 11 times since Seattle joined the league last season and it's proven to be a tightly-contested series with neither team managing to record three straight victories at any point (which is what the Kraken will be trying to accomplish here). I don't expect the defending Stanley Cup champions to go away quietly in this series. Take Colorado (8*). |
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04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 235 | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Golden State at 8 pm et on Friday. Consecutive 'over' results have helped keep this total reasonably high as we enter Game 6 of the series on Friday in San Francisco. The Warriors continue to play effective defense having now held 14 of their last 15 opponents to 44 made field goals or less. On the flip side, they're coming off a game in which they knocked down 50 field goals - a number they're unlikely to approach again on Friday. Keep in mind, the Kings have limited 11 of their last 13 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. We're talking about two teams that are playing at a reasonably fast pace but still managing to hold their form defensively. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the last two games, the Kings haven't seen three straight contests go 'over' the total since a four-game streak from March 18th to 24th. To find the last time the Warriors delivered three straight 'over' results you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to 8th, when they also saw four consecutive games go 'over' the total. Take the under (8*). |
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04-28-23 | Guardians -135 v. Red Sox | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Guardians have been scuffing their heels lately and are coming off another losing series, this one at the hands of the lowly Rockies. With that being said, I like their chances of opening this series in Boston on a positive note on Friday. Shane Bieber will take the ball for Cleveland. He hasn't necessarily been dominant in his first five turns in the rotation this season, particularly over his last couple of outings, but he still owns a solid 3.75 FIP and 1.17 WHIP and given his career-high FIP was 3.32 back in 2019, I expect some positive regression to the mean moving forward. Nick Pivetta will counter for Boston. He's arguably been worse than his 4.58 ERA would indicate, logging a 5.18 FIP and 1.37 WHIP through his first four outings. I've never felt he's a great fit for Fenway Park in Boston and so far this season he's given up just shy of 2.0 home runs per nine innings. While the Guardians bullpen has only been marginally better than the Red Sox 'pen, I would anticipate the numbers diverging as time goes on. We always like to support the Guardians when their elite bullpen is rested, as is the case here following an off day on Thursday. Note that Cleveland's relief corps has recorded a collective 3.38 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox 'pen has held up well considering it has been overworked, already logging north of 100 innings on the season. We have seen some signs of regression lately though as Boston relievers have posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Atlanta at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The majority of the teams looking to 'bounce back' in NBA playoff action last night simply didn't, with the Cavaliers and Bucks both eliminated on their home floor and the Kings pushed to the brink of elimination with a home defeat against the Warriors - their third loss in a row. Only the Grizzlies managed to fight back. I only say point that out as I do expect the Celtics to respond positively following their stunning home loss to the Hawks two nights ago. Boston appeared to have that game (and the series) sewn up but as has inexplicably happened on multiple occasions this season, it let down its guard and now is forced to go back to work on the road on Thursday. Note that the Celtics are 39-26 ATS when coming off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points on average in that situation. Atlanta on the other hand checks in a woeful 7-19 ATS when coming off an outright win as an underdog over the last two seasons, as is the case here. While the return of Dejounte Murray from suspension figures to give the Hawks a boost, it also serves to take some opportunities away from Trae Young, who I think thrives when forced to shoulder the entire offensive load, as we saw in Game 5 on Tuesday. Take Boston (8*). |
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04-27-23 | Rangers +110 v. Devils | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. It seemed pretty clear that the Rangers got ahead of themselves after jumping out to a 2-0 lead in this series, with both wins coming on the road - in lopsided fashion. New Jersey responded with consecutive victories of its own in Manhattan so now the series shifts back to Newark all tied up at two games apiece. I look for the Rangers to regain the upper hand on Thursday, however. Both of these teams have been better on the road than at home this season so perhaps it should come as no surprise that the road team has won all four games in the series to date. Similar to the situation New Jersey was in on Saturday, the Rangers have now dropped back-to-back games for the first time since a four-game skid from February 18th to 25th. They've won on the road, scoring four, five and five goals, each of the last three times they've come off consecutive losses. Also note that New York is 12-3 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. The Rangers are also a perfect 6-0 when playing on the road off a home loss against a divisional foe over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.0 goal per game on average and outscoring opponents by an impressive 2.3 goals per game in that spot. The Devils, meanwhile, are just 8-17 when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.2 goals along the way. New Jersey is also a long-term 77-101 when coming off consecutive games in which it allowed one goal or less, which is also the situation here. Take New York (8*). |
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04-27-23 | Mariners +105 v. Phillies | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. We'll take a flyer on the Mariners after they dropped the middle game of this three-game series last night. George Kirby will take the ball for Seattle. He's arguably been better than his 3.57 ERA indicates this season, logging a 2.81 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while allowing only 26-of-92 batters he's faced to reach base. I like the fact that Kirby has worked at least six innings in three of four starts to date, perhaps taking some of the pressure off of a Mariners bullpen that has been terrific but also overworked having logged north of 90 innings, collectively. Also note that Kirby has started on full rest (5+ days) in each of his first four starts this season and will do so again here. Matt Strahm will counter for Philadelphia. He tossed nine shutout innings in his first two outings this season but has allowed six earned runs in eight innings since. The hits simply haven't been dropping in against the left-hander as he has recorded a BABIP south of .230 so far this season. I do expect the Mariners lineup to put pressure on him here, noting that they check in averaging 5.0 runs per game on the road this season. The Phillies average 4.9 runs per contest at home and it's worth noting that they plated six runs last night. They've gone 1-5 after scoring six or more runs in a game this season, outscored by a combined margin of 49-17 in those contests. The Mariners bullpen does own marginally better overall numbers this season but Philadelphia's relief corps has admittedly been stronger over the last week. I'm willing to consider the bullpens a wash but even with that, I think the M's have enough of a starting pitching advantage and at the plate to support them at a reasonable price here. Take Seattle (8*). |
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04-26-23 | Cardinals +100 v. Giants | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We'll often look to fade MLB teams coming off emotional, come-from-behind victories like the one we saw from the Giants last night. San Francisco has now won a season-high four games in a row after having not strung together consecutive victories on a single occasion previously. The win streak has really come out of nowhere for a team that wasn't doing anything particularly well and I expect it to grind to a halt on Wednesday. Steven Matz will take the ball for the visiting Cardinals. I think some positive regression to the mean is in order when it comes to the left-hander as he has gone winless through his first four starts this season, posting a 4.87 FIP and 1.64 WHIP along the way. Keep in mind, in his first year with the Cardinals in 2022, Matz logged a 3.78 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 15 appearances spanning 48 innings of work. In his last full big league season, Matz recorded a 3.79 FIP and 1.33 WHIP in 150 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays in 2021. Matz command simply hasn't been there in the early going as he has issued north of 4.0 walks per nine innings. I do think he can and will settle down and it's worth noting that the Giants don't put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with runners on base, with just 12 stolen bases to date this season. Behind Matz is a Cards bullpen that has pitched well (despite last night's debacle), recording a collective 3.43 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season. That's in stark contrast to the Giants bullpen, which has logged a collective 5.44 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Anthony DeSclafani will get the nod for San Francisco on Wednesday. Perhaps the opposite of Matz, some negative regression to the mean can be expected when it comes to the veteran right-hander. He has posted a 2.91 FIP and 0.88 WHIP but comes off his worst outing of the season against the Mets last Friday. After pitching lights out in his first two starts this season, DeSclafani has allowed six earned runs on 13 hits, including two home runs, over his last two outings, covering a span of 11 2/3 innings. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11 | Top | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Miami at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat pulled off an improbable home sweep of the Bucks in Games 3 and 4 of this series and head to Milwaukee with a commanding 3-1 series lead. I expect the Bucks to answer back on Wednesday, however. Consider Game 4 of this series the 'Jimmy Butler Game' as he went off for 56 points with the rest of the Heat players essentially left to play bit parts. Despite being held to 87 field goal attempts or less in all four games in this series, the Heat have scored above their season scoring average in all four contests thanks to knocking down 50, 45, 45 and 43 field goals. Interestingly, Game 4 was actually their worst shooting performance of the series yet they won in a rout. Here, I'm confident we'll see a positive response from the Bucks defensively. Note that prior to this series, Miami had made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 25 of its previous 30 contests. Despite the loss in the same situation in Game 4, the Bucks are still 11-2 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this season, averaging well north of their season scoring average with 120.0 points per game in that situation. When coming off consecutive ATS losses this season (12-game sample size), as is the case here, Milwaukee has averaged 123.9 points per game. In the long-term picture, the Bucks are 71-46 ATS when playing at home off consecutive defeats. This has typically been a poor spot for the Heat this season as they're a woeful 1-10 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games, averaging only 104.8 points per game in that situation. Over the last two seasons, the Heat have gone 4-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six contests ATS, as is the case here, averaging a similarly poor 104.9 ppg along the way. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-26-23 | Padres +100 v. Cubs | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We'll fade Cubs starter Drew Smyly off his incredible brush with a Perfect Game in his most recent outing last Friday. Smyly has pitched exceptionally well over his last three starts and it has really come out of nowhere. Note that he'll be pitching on short rest (four days) here for the second straight outing, however, and I look for the Padres bats to come alive off last night's shutout defeat in the series-opener. Some regression is almost certainly in order when it comes to the veteran Smyly, noting that he has posted a 3.37 FIP and 0.91 WHIP so far this season after logging 5.11/1.37 and 4.23/1.19 splits over the last two campaigns. Michael Wacha will counter for San Diego. He hasn't been good over his last two outings but we know he's capable of giving the Padres some quality starts. After all, he had worked 12 innings and allowed just four earned runs on eight hits in his first two starts this season, including an outing in Atlanta where he tossed six shutout frames, striking out 10 along the way. Wacha owns a 4.36 FIP and 1.72 WHIP so far this season after logging a 4.14 FIP and 1.12 WHIP in 23 starts spanning 127 1/3 innings with the Red Sox last year. The good news here is that Wacha will be pitching on full rest (five days) for the fifth straight outing to open the campaign. While the Cubs bullpen has posted better numbers than that of the Padres so far this season there hasn't been a considerable gap. In fact, San Diego's relief corps has already converted eight saves while blowing just three while the Cubs have only two saves to their credit to go along with three blown. Take San Diego (8*). |
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04-26-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -4 | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. After stealing a split in the first two games of this series in Memphis the Lakers held serve in Games 3 and 4 at home, including an overtime victory last time out. Needless to say, that most recent contest could have gone either way and I certainly don't think the Grizzlies will feel like they're out of this series despite being down 3-1. Extended ATS winning streaks haven't been commonplace for the Lakers in recent years, noting that they've gone 15-28 ATS following two or more ATS victories in a row over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Worse still, they're just 8-19 ATS when coming off consecutive home wins over the same stretch. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, check in 19-7 when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points in that situation. They've proven to be a resilient team, going 17-6 ATS after suffering consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.1 points on average in that spot. Despite losing both Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles, Memphis still held the Lakers to just 41 made field goals in each contest (including an overtime game) and have now limited five of their last eight foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Following a late season offensive surge, the Lakers have connected on 41 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. I also feel that Los Angeles is giving up far too many scoring opportunities, having yielded 89 or more field goal attempts in regulation time in six of its last seven contests. Look for the Grizzlies to take advantage on Wednesday. Take Memphis (8*). |
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04-26-23 | Panthers v. Bruins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. A quick note to start, we want to play this total at 6.5 (even with the juice) rather than the 6.0 being offered at some books. I anticipate the total bumping up to 6.5 at the majority of books as the day progresses. We've seen three straight games total six goals or more in this series with the 'over' cashing at a 2-0-1 clip over that stretch. That's notable as we haven't seen more than three consecutive games involving the Bruins fail to stay 'under' the total since way back in their first four games this season (all four of those games went 'over' the total). Only twice previously since then have we see a three-game stretch without an 'under' result, on those two occasions their next contest resulted in a 3-2 home win over the Hurricanes on November 25th and a 3-1 home victory over the Panthers to open this series. Note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Bruins playing at home after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.2 goals in that situation. From the Panthers perspective, they've posted an 0-5 o/u record when playing on the road off a home loss by two goals or more this season, which is the situation tonight, leading to just 4.8 total goals on average in that spot. Going back further, the 'under' is 11-4 with Florida playing on the road after giving up three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 5.7 goals along the way. While the Panthers are known for their high-scoring ways, the fact is they haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since a four-game 'over' streak from March 20th to 25th. Since then, they've recorded a 5-5-3 o/u mark. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 106-95 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Garden felt like the Garden again as the Knicks rolled to consecutive victories over the Cavaliers on Friday and Sunday, grabbing a 3-1 lead in the series as it shifts back to Cleveland for Game 5 on Wednesday. I don't expect the Cavs to roll over as they've owned a considerable home court advantage of their own all season, going 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.2 points per game. Better still, the Cavs are 10-2 ATS when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring the opposition by a ridculous average margin of 14.8 points in that spot. When playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games ATS this season, as is the case here, they've held opponents to just 98.1 points per game, outscoring them by 16.6 points on average. I felt that Cleveland had its share of good looks from the field in Games 3 and 4 but simply couldn't take advantage. While the Knicks have undoubtedly been good defensively, limiting the Cavs to 38 or fewer made field goals in all four games in this series, Cleveland has now limited six straight opponents to less than 40 made field goals. Here at home this season, the Cavs have held the opposition to an average of only 38 made field goals per contest. As poorly as things went for Cleveland offensively over the last couple of games, it's worth noting that it was held to fewer than 100 points in back-to-back contests only once previously this season - that coming in its regular season finale and then Game 1 of this series. We saw the Cavs bounce back from those poor performances with a resounding 107-90 win over the Knicks in Game 2. Look for them to bring their 'A' game again on Wednesday. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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04-25-23 | Royals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in the opener of this series last night but probably deserved a better fate as both teams wasted numerous scoring opportunities, not to mention the fact that seven runs were scored before the middle of the fifth inning (the game finished with nine runs). I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as we arguably have an even more favorable starting pitching matchup for the hitters, not to mention the fact that both bullpens were forced to use a number of key arms in last night's contest. Brady Singer will take the ball for the Royals. Through four starts spanning 21 innings of work, Singer has recorded a 5.46 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while allowing 32-of-93 batters he's faced to reach base so far this season. Not only that but he's been tagged for five home runs. It's a similar story for Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson. We actually won with the 'over' in his most recent start against the Padres last week. Nelson has logged a 5.50 FIP and 1.18 WHIP through his first four outings this season, covering a span of 22 innings. He has only allowed 26-of-91 batters to reach base but that's had more to do with batted balls not falling in than anything else (he's giving up just 7.4 hits per nine innings but has been lit up for four home runs including three in his last two starts). It's worth mentioning that Nelson started on short rest (four days) for the first time in his big league career last time out and will have to do so for a second straight outing here. Neither bullpen inspires much confidence. The Royals 'pen sports a collective 6.30 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, converting only three saves while blowing three as well. Arizona's relief corps has logged a more respectable 4.73 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with six saves converted and four blown but used closer Andrew Chafin for 1 2/3 innings (and 30-plus pitches) last night, meaning he likely won't be available on Tuesday. Also note that the D'Backs 'pen has already worked 91 1/3 innings this season and hasn't had a day off since April 13th. Take the over (8*). |
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04-25-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 221 | Top | 109-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 9 pm et on Tuesday. This play sets up similarly to when we (successfully) backed the 'over' in Game 2 of this series last week. Remember, the series-opener was exceptionally low-scoring with just 189 total points scored but as expected, Game 2 was much higher-scoring, reaching into the low-230's. Note that the 'under' hasn't cashed in consecutive meetings in this series since back in May and October 2021. Since then, the two teams have matched up 11 times with the 'over' going 8-3. While we did win with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Sunday, it wasn't easy as overtime nearly toppled the total. Of course that contest reached only 192 points in regulation time. As I've noted previously in this series, the Timberwolves have been one of the most productive 'fast break' teams in the league this season - top-eight in the league in fast break points during the regular season, in fact. While injuries have played a factor, they've played far too slow in this series. However, with some life following Sunday's overtime win, I do expect Minnesota to play with 'house money' on Tuesday and push the pace more than we've seen. Karl-Anthony Towns' two highest-scoring games of this series have come in the last two contests. The sudden absence of Kyle Anderson means more scoring opportunities for the likes of Towns and Anthony Edwards, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. On the flip side, the Nuggets are heavily-favored for a reason here. Note that while they average 115.7 points per game overall this season, that number bumps up to 118.5 when coming off a road loss (22-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 229.4 points in that situation. While it was aided by overtime on Sunday, Denver has now knocked down more than 40 field goals in all four games in this series. Finally, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with the Nuggets playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. In fact the 'over' is 58-36 with Denver coming off a loss over the same stretch and a long-term 176-139 when the Nuggets check in off an outright defeat as a favorite, which is the situation here. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-23 | Padres v. Cubs -122 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over San Diego at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs had a day off on Monday to digest dropping three of four games at home against the Dodgers from Thursday-Sunday. Meanwhile, the Padres are 'fat and happy' after taking three of four games from the division-rival Diamondbacks in Arizona. I don't like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up for the visiting Padres as they hand the ball to Blake Snell against Justin Steele. Snell hasn't been any better than his 6.00 ERA indicates this season as he has logged a 6.04 FIP and 1.89 WHIP. The left-hander has allowed 34-of-86 batters to reach base and figures to be under plenty of pressure against a Cubs lineup that has swiped 24 bases and averages 5.8 runs per game on the campaign. Steele was quietly effective in his 24 big league starts last season, posting a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP. He's arguably been even better so far this season, recording a 3.52 FIP and 0.88 WHIP in four starts spanning 25 innings of work. Only 23 of the 95 batters he has faced have reached base and the Padres haven't been overly aggressive on the basepaths this season, swiping only nine bases to date. Behind Steele is a Cubs bullpen that has logged a collective 4.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The Padres on the other hand have posted a collective 4.45 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Over their last seven games, Padres relievers have allowed 17 earned runs in just 23 1/3 innings. Take Chicago (8*). |
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04-25-23 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -150 | 3-2 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Sometimes you simply draw a bad opening round matchup and I think that's been the case for the Islanders in this particular series. Going back to the start of 2019, spanning a stretch of 19 meetings including two playoff series' between these Metropolitan Division foes, the Islanders have managed to win two out of three games on just one previous occasion. They failed to accomplish that feat again on Sunday (following Friday's 5-1 victory) as they dropped a 5-2 decision in a game they quite simply needed to win on home ice. The Hurricanes are banged-up right now but their injuries are up front, where they've proven they have considerable depth. Carolina is an extremely difficult team to break down defensively with one of the best six-deep defensive corps' in the league. It enters this game having allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season. That's in stark contrast to the Islanders, who are giving up 3.1 goals per game on home ice. Under Barry Trotz, the Isles were a fortress defensively, particularly on the road. That just hasn't been the case under the guidance of head coach Lane Lambert, however. New York has been one of the worst road teams in the league this season, winning only 17-of-43 games to date while being outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals per game. Here, we'll note that New York is a woeful 12-28 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canes are riding a nine-game winning streak at home in the opening round of the playoffs, including taking all four matchups in Raleigh against the Bruins in their first round series last year. New York's best players just haven't stepped up in this series. Bo Horvat in particular - the team's big pre-trade deadline acquisition - only recorded his first point of the series in Sunday's 5-2 loss, and that short-handed goal came in garbage time when the game had long been decided. Carolina has employed a 'next man up' philosophy this season, losing the likes of Max Pacioretty, Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen and now rookie Jack Drury (he has an outside chance of playing on Tuesday after leaving Sunday's game) but continuing to press forward. Again, the Canes defense matches up exceptionally well with most opponents and the Islanders are no exception. One final note, Isles goaltender Ilya Sorokin is all-world to be sure and a worthy Vezina Trophy candidate this season. However, he hasn't appeared likely to steal a game in this series, posting a rather pedestrian .917 save percentage through the first four games. Note that he's now made 12 consecutive starts for the Isles and has had more than a single day off between games just twice going back to March 27th. Even the best goalies can wear down at this stage of the season and when you consider he's been between the pipes in 24 of New York's last 27 games, you have to wonder how much he has left in the tank (Carolina scored five goals on just 29 shots against him on Sunday). Take Carolina (8*). |
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04-25-23 | Rockies v. Guardians -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland -1.5 runs over Colorado at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockies took the opener of this series last night and it wasn't particularly close as they jumped ahead 6-0 before the end of the fifth inning and never looked back. The Guardians have admittedly been stumbling lately but I do see this as an ideal bounce-back spot on Tuesday. Ryan Feltner will take the ball for Colorado. He hasn't been quite as bad as his six-plus ERA would indicate but he hasn't been good either. Feltner checks in sporting a 4.69 FIP and 1.68 WHIP, allowing 32-of-88 batters to reach base. As I've noted on multiple occasions this season, the Guardians have the type of lineup that puts a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers - especially those that tend to play with fire and put men on base consistently. Note that Cleveland boasts an incredible five players ranked in the top-15 in baseball (including ties) in stolen bases this season. The Rockies bullpen held up well late night but didn't face much pressure either. Entering this series, Colorado's 'pen had logged a 4.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while being forced to work a whopping 90 innings collectively. Rookie Peyton Battenfield will get his third start of the campaign for the Guardians. More has been asked of him due to injuries in Cleveland's starting rotation and the rookie starter has taken advantage. He enters Tuesday's outing sporting a 3.88 FIP and 0.94 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work. Of the 41 batters Battenfield has faced, only 10 have reached base. A closer look into Battenfield's background shows that he posted a solid 3.63 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 28 starts at the Triple-A level last season. It's been a steady ascension through the Guardians' minor league system for the right-hander and he certainly appears ready for the opportunity to pitch at this level. Of course, Cleveland owns one of the best bullpens in baseball, even if its numbers have been rather pedestrian so far this season. The Guardians relief corps' has posted a collective 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with nine saves converted and four blown here in 2023 (entering last night's action). They kept most of their key arms idle thanks to the lopsided result last night, including setup man James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase. Take Cleveland -1.5 runs (8*). |
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04-24-23 | Avalanche -143 v. Seattle Kraken | 2-3 | Loss | -143 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Monday. Much like they did at the outset of this series when they dropped a 3-1 decision on home ice, the Avalanche appeared to take the Kraken's best punch early in Game 3 on Saturday, falling behind 1-0 before rallying for a 6-4 victory. Colorado has now reeled off 12 straight victories away from home with its last loss in enemy territory coming way back on March 4th in Dallas. Seattle has now dropped four of its last five games going back to the end of the regular season and has been outshot in all three contests in this series by a combined 110-88 margin. You have to wonder if the Kraken might consider a change between the pipes noting that Philipp Grubauer has posted a less-than-impressive .884 save percentage with Seattle winning only eight of his 21 starts on home ice this season. While that can work for some teams, as we saw with the Devils on Saturday in New York, I'm not sure it would be enough to turn the tide for the Kraken. Colorado has that extra gear to reach to and I think losing the opener of this series actually served it well in this opening round. Note that Colorado has been an excellent positive momentum play over the last two seasons, going 80-29 after winning four or five of its last six games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal in that situation. When playing on the road off a win this season, the Avs have gone 22-6, outscoring foes by 1.2 goals on average. Better still, when on the road off consecutive victories, Colorado has posted a 13-2 record this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 goals along the way. The Kraken have thrived on the road this season, going 27-16 but haven't enjoyed the same success at home where they're just 20-22, allowing 3.2 goals per game at Climate Pledge Arena. The Avs have won three of four all-time meetings in Seattle with the lone loss coming last April in a game where Seattle had to hang on for a 3-2 victory after jumping ahead 3-0 in the first period. Take Colorado (8*). |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers OVER 220.5 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series last Sunday but have stayed idle from a totals perspective since with the 'under' cashing in the last two games. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair than we saw on Saturday, when the Lakers prevailed by a 111-101 score. The Grizzlies have shot poorly in consecutive games, knocking down just 38 and 35 field goals. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday as Memphis hoisted up 93 field goal attempts and Los Angeles got off 90. Note that the last time the Grizzlies were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games was way back on February 5th and 7th. In their next game they went off for 49-of-84 shooting in a 128-point outburst against Minnesota. Prior to that they were held to 39 and 36 made field goals on December 25th and 27th, respectively, before knocking down 48 in a 119-point effort against Toronto. The week previous to that they were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive affairs before connecting on 45 in a 125-point performance against Phoenix. You get the picture. The Lakers responded following a poor offensive showing in Game 2 by making good on 41-of-90 field goal attempts for 111 points on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have now allowed seven of their last eight and 12 of their last 14 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Neither team has been able to slow down its opposition with any sort of consistency with Memphis allowing 90 or more FG attempts in nine of its last 12 games and Los Angeles yielding 89 or more FG attempts in eight of its last 10 contests. We've now seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total and that's notable as you would have to go back to late 2020-early 2021 to find the last time three straight meetings stayed 'under'. The last time we saw consecutive 'under' results in this series was on December 9th and 29th of 2021 and the next matchup resulted in a whopping 246 total points right here in Los Angeles. The Grizzlies average 116.5 points per game this season but that number rises to 117.1 when coming off a game in which they scored 105 points or less (17-game sample size), as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 228.6 points. Similarly, the Lakers average 116.8 points per game this season but that scoring average increases to 117.3 when coming off an 'under' result (39-game sample size), leading to an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. Finally, we'll note that you would have to go back to February 15th to March 3rd - when the Grizzlies posted an 0-5-1 o/u mark - to find the last time Memphis was involved in more than two 'under' results in a row. Meanwhile, the Lakers last posted a three-game 'under' streak from March 15th to 19th with the 'over' going 10-4 in their 14 games since. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-23 | Royals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams met for a two-game series at Chase Field last season and the result was a pair of slugfests with each contest totalling exactly 14 runs. While I'm not sure we see that many runs on Monday, I do think the total will prove too low once again. The Royals will hand the ball to Brad Keller for his fifth start of the season. While he has posted a solid 3.00 ERA that doesn't tell the whole story as he owns a 4.38 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. The hits haven't necessarily been falling in against him but that's likely to change as he has given up considerably more hits than innings pitched in each of his last two seasons. Note that of the 87 batters Keller has faced, 29 have reached base. The Diamondbacks are a team I would classify as being a handful to deal with when getting on base, racking up 20 stolen bases so far this season. Behind Keller is a Royals bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball this season, posting a collective 6.69 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with only three saves converted and three blown. Tommy Henry gets the call-up and will make his first start of the season for the D'Backs. He found some success early last season but it seemed the book was out on him late as he allowed 18 earned runs in just 19 1/3 innings of work over his last four starts. Henry ended up logging a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in his rookie campaign. Things haven't gone swimmingly for him in the early going at the Triple-A level this season as he has recorded a 6.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in four starts spanning 21 1/3 innings. Of the 91 batters he has faced at that level, 32 have reached base. Arizona's bullpen could be in tough in this series noting that the D'Backs haven't had a day off since April 23rd and their relief corps has struggled at the best of times, recording a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with six saves converted and three blown. The Royals scored more runs in yesterday's game (11) than they had in their previous five contests (9), perhaps providing a spark as this three-game series begins. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Sunday. If the Timberwolves are going to extend this series back to Denver for Game 5 they're going to need to play a certain way on Sunday night in Minnesota and I think that involves effectively shortening proceedings by grinding it out and turning this into a slugfest. I say that because they can't expect to get much more from a banged-up Anthony Edwards than they did in Friday's loss as he poured in 36 points on 10-of-22 shooting from the field and 13-of-15 from the free throw line. Karl-Anthony Towns produced 27 points in that game as well, but again the T'Wolves still lost by nine points. Without the likes of Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels, not to mention Jaylen Nowell playing hurt, the T'Wolves just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Denver. With that being said, it's rarely easy to close an opponent out and the Nuggets are likely to find that out here. Denver has of course dealt with its own injury issues with Nikola Jokic in particular still probably playing at less than 100%. It's worth noting that this will be the third game in five nights in this series. Denver has made a concerted effort to slow things down in this series, limiting the T'Wolves to 81, 79 and 79 field goal attempts while topping out at 90 FG attempts itself - that coming in the series-opener, which happened to be the lowest-scoring game of the series to date. We know that Minnesota is capable of stepping up defensively as it has limited the opposition to 41-of-88 shooting on average here at home this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-4 with the T'Wolves playing at home off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 222.5 points in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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04-23-23 | Oilers -151 v. Kings | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Sunday. The Oilers are feeling a little short-changed after a controversial overtime finish in Game 3 of this series on Friday. I'm confident we'll see Edmonton bounce back from that defeat and even the series up at two games apiece on Sunday night in Los Angeles. The Oilers have been impressive at the best of times on the road this season, going 27-15 while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals. But they've been even better when playing on the road off a road loss, posting an 8-1 mark while outscoring foes by 1.6 goals on average (averaging 4.2 goals per game in that situation). Edmonton is also 16-5 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent this season, including 1-0 in that spot in this series, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals along the way. I have a lot of respect for the Kings and have backed them plenty of times over the course of the season, however they're playing with a rather small margin for error in this series, having been outshot in all three previous games by a combined 117-90 margin. Noting that Los Angeles is still just 16-35 under head coach Todd McClellan when facing opponents that outscore their foes by an average margin of 0.3 goals or more per game, which is the situation here, I look for the Oilers to prevail. Take Edmonton (8*). |
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04-23-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I think we're seeing an overreaction to the lopsided nature of Game 3 of this series on Thursday as the Kings suffered an expected letdown after winning the first two games of the series at home. Sacramento certainly didn't bring its 'A' game on that night, knocking down just 35-of-92 field goal attempts in the 17-point loss. I do think the potential is there for the Kings to give the Warriors a much tougher run here, noting they haven't dropped consecutive games ATS in this series since back in October and December 2021 (the two teams have met nine times since). While the Warriors have been defending reasonably well, as I noted in my analysis of Thursday's contest, I don't like the fact that they've now allowed nine straight opponents to get off 90 or more field goal attempts including 98, 92 and 92 in this series. Give a team as talented as the Kings enough scoring opportunities and they're going to take advantage. On the flip side, Game 3 marked the first time in seven games the Kings allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts and they still held the Warriors to only 40 made field goals. Sacramento has limited seven straight and 10 of its last 11 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. Golden State has been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in eight of its last 11 contests. The Warriors will get Draymond Green back from suspension for this game. I'm not sure how much of a help that really is as I liked the rotation they employed without him on Thursday with Jordan Poole and Donte DiVincenzo in particular seeing extra floor time. Finally, we'll note that the Kings are 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 2.2 points in that situation. They've gone 22-12 ATS when coming off a loss this season, outscoring foes by 2.7 points on average in that spot. Take Sacramento (8*). |
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04-23-23 | Nationals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Washington at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. We resisted the temptation to back the Twins on the run-line yesterday after they dropped the opener of this series on Friday night, thankfully so as they got drilled in the second game of this series. They'll look to avoid the unlikely series sweep at the hands of the Nationals on Sunday afternoon and I'm confident they can do just that in convincing fashion. Patrick Corbin will get another turn in the Washington rotation, despite his struggles continuing in the early going this season. Corbin has been just about as bad as his 6.30 ERA indicates, recording a 4.91 FIP and 1.75 WHIP while allowing 35-of-96 batters to reach base. I do think the Twins have a similar lineup to the Guardians in terms of their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths and that particular order gave him plenty of trouble in his most recent start. The presence of Bailey Ober on the mound for the Twins may give some bettors pause but I'm not sure that it should. Ober quietly recorded a 2.92 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in 11 starts spanning 56 innings of work last season but was the odd man out in terms of the Twins rotation to start this season after the acquisition of Pablo Lopez. Due to injuries, there is an opportunity for Ober to perhaps stick at the big league level for a bit should he perform well here. Note that the right-hander had been pitching well at Triple-A, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, not to mention a 22:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 17 2/3 innings this season. The Nationals bullpen has actually outperformed that of the Twins so far this season, but similar to what I alluded to in my Dodgers-Cubs writeup yesterday, I would anticipate that script flipping as the season goes on. Note that the Minnesota 'pen is still one of the fresher relief corps' in baseball having only logged a collective 69 innings this season. Thanks to the lopsided nature of yesterday's game, the Twins were able to keep their key relievers off the mound with recent call-up Simeon Woods Richardson logging a key 4 2/3 innings in relief in Saturday's contest. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-23-23 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 206.5 | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a major adjustment to the total over the course of this series, and rightfully so as the first three games have stayed comfortably 'under' the total. With that being said, I expect a different story to unfold in this matinee affair on Sunday in Manhattan. It's not that the two teams played at a snail's pace in Game 3 on Friday - in fact it was played at a fairly frenetic tempo in the early going but both teams were simply ice cold from the field and three-point range in particular. Even the free throw line proved to be a difficult spot with the two teams combining to shoot 21-of-35 from the charity stripe (they've combined to knock down 36-of-47 free throw attempts on average this season). From beyond the arc, we did see the scoring pick up a bit in the second half in Game 3 with the two sides combining to make good on 17 threes, but that was on 66 attempts. They average 24-of-68 combined shooting from three point range this season. There's too much offensive talent on the floor to see another ugly shooting performance on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 108-79 with the Cavaliers seeking revenge for a 20-point loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Knicks seem to have gained a boost following home wins this season, averaging 5.3 points more than their season scorning average, but also giving up 1.3 additional points per game, when coming off a win at Madison Square Garden, with the 'over' going 16-7 in those contests. We've now seen three straight games in this series stay 'under' the total, which is notable. The last time three consecutive matchups between these two teams stayed 'under' the total in the same season was back in the 2015-16 campaign. There was another three-game 'under' streak that spanned across two seasons in 2017 and only one of those contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with today. The next game following that streak totalled 232 points. I expect the Cavs in particular to make the necessary adjustments to punch back here but the Knicks are favored for a reason at home and their multi-dimensional offense is always a handful to defend here at MSG. Take the over (8*). |
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04-22-23 | Devils +130 v. Rangers | 2-1 | Win | 130 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey over New York at 8 pm et on Saturday. While the Rangers own a 2-0 stranglehold in this series after stealing Games 1 and 2 in Newark, I don't think we're going to see the Devils simply roll over with the series shifting to Manhattan for Game 3 on Saturday. New Jersey won a game here at Madison Square Garden in the regular season and actually pulled off three straight victories on the road against the Blueshirts as recently as 2020-21. Of course, the Devils have played their best hockey on the road this season, averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.8 goals. Interestingly, Rangers all-world goaltender Igor Shesterkin has been slightly weaker at home this season, posting a .913 save percentage while posting a 20-13 record in his 33 home starts. Home ice advantage is often overplayed in the postseason and I do think that's the case here, keeping in mind, only one of eight teams managed to hold serve at home in both games at the start of these playoffs (Carolina). While the Rangers have won consecutive games over the Devils, they haven't posted three straight victories in this series since late 2021 into 2022. Finally, we'll note that New Jersey is 12-7 when playing on the road seeking revenge for a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Better still, the Devils are 8-2 when on the road seeking revenge for a home loss by three goals or more over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring foes by 1.7 goals on average. Take New Jersey (8*). |
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04-22-23 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 220.5 | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen two exceptionally high-scoring games to open this series, totalling 247 and 260 points. Now we're heading into uncharted territory in this series, however, noting that the 'over' has cashed in each of the last four meetings, matching the longest 'over' streak since way back in 2007-08. That four-game 'over' streak ended with an extremely low-scoring 78-73 Heat victory, staying 'under' the total by 40+ points. While we're not going to see that type of defensive struggle here, I do think the total will prove too high. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains questionable to play for the Bucks. Regardless whether he's able to go, the incentive is there for the Heat to slow things down at home, where they've averaged 40 made field goals per game while giving up an identical 40. We've seen a shift from the Bucks defensively as they've made an effort to limit their opponents' possessions, unlike what we saw for much of the regular season. They've limited four of their last seven foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat have knocked down 50 and 45 field goals in the first two games of this series. Keep in mind, they've made good on 45 or more field goals in just six of their last 15 contests. In other words, I don't think their hot shooting is sustainable. The Bucks, meanwhile, made good on a whopping 53 field goals in Game 2. The previous three times they knocked down 50 or more field goals, they connected on just 39, 38 and 39 field goals in their next contest with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 127-96 with the Heat playing the role of home underdog, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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04-22-23 | White Sox v. Rays -179 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm willing to pay up to back the Rays in Game 2 of this series against the White Sox after they probably had no business winning last night's game (but did anyway). Chicago's bullpen continues to implode game-after-game. It entered this series sporting a collective 6.68 ERA and 1.77 WHIP and those numbers only got worse after last night's debacle. On a positive note for Chicago, Dylan Cease will get the start on Saturday. He's faced the Rays three times previously and has never lasted a full six innings. Cease enters this start sporting a sparkling 2.01 ERA this season but probably hasn't been quite as good as that ERA indicates, recording a 3.34 FIP with 28-of-99 batters he has faced reaching base despite hits falling in at an unusually low rate. The Rays will of course put pressure on the best of pitchers and remain one of the healthiest lineups in baseball as we approach the end of April. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to its own ace, Shane McClanahan. He's been outstanding through his first four starts this season with the Rays winning all four of those games. McClanahan has posted a 2.43 FIP and 1.13 WHIP and has yet to give up a home run. Again, the bullpen matchup in this series is no contest, noting that Tampa Bay relievers entered last night's action with a collective 2.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, converting three saves without blowing a single one. With the White Sox still sorely missing table-setter Tim Anderson at the top of their lineup, I look for the Rays to put another one past them on Saturday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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04-22-23 | Dodgers -128 v. Cubs | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers were a no-show yesterday after taking the opener of this four-game set on Thursday. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they hand the ball to Dustin May against Hayden Wesneski of the Cubs. May is off to a terrific start this season but did get roughed up at the hands of the Mets last time out. The right-hander still owns a solid 3.80 FIP and 0.92 WHIP and I like his chances of rebounding against a Cubs offense that isn’t as good as it showed in yesterday’s 13-0 rout. Note that only 23-of-92 batters May has faced have reached base this season. That’s in stark contrast to his counterpart Wesneski, who has allowed 23-of-61 batters aboard. Wesneski did silence the lowly A’s bats last time out but still owns an ERA and FIP north of six this season. While he does have terrific stuff, he’s not really fooling a lot of big league hitters right now with only 11 strikeouts in 13 innings of work this season. While the Cubs bullpen has been more effective than that of the Dodgers so far this season I do expect that script to flip as time goes on. Thanks to the lopsided nature of yesterday’s defeat the Dodgers have their key relievers fresh for this contest. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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04-21-23 | Mets v. Giants -105 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
National League Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco over New York at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Mets entered the week on a four-game winning streak and have stayed hot, first taking two of three games from the mighty Dodgers in Los Angeles and then defeating the down-trodden Giants 9-4 in last night's series-opener in San Francisco. I look for their streak to grind to a halt on Friday, however, as they send Joey Lucchesi to the mound for his first big league start since 2021 against Anthony DeSclafani of the Giants. The plan probably wasn't for Lucchesi to be dropped into the starting rotation so early this season but the Mets are desperate with Justin Verlander and Carlos Carrasco sidelined due to injuries and Max Scherzer now suspended for 10 games for using an illegal substance. Lucchesi will be making his first big league start since undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has made three starts at the minor league level this season, recording an impressive 2.30 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. However, 18-of-64 batters he has faced have reached base and he was tagged for a pair of home runs in 15 2/3 innings of work so it's not as if he's been setting the Triple-A circuit on fire. It remains to be seen how deep he can work into a game and the Mets bullpen is a bit taxed at this point, having already logged 75 1/3 innings and not having had a day off since April 13th. DeSclafani has been sharp in his first three starts for the Giants this season. While he's bound to suffer some regression as he enters sporting a 1.42 ERA, his 2.34 FIP and 0.63 WHIP indicate he's pitching well without the help of smoke-and-mirrors. Only 12 of the 68 batters he has faced have reached base through his 19 innings of work this season. This will be a 'revenge game' of sorts for DeSclafani after he allowed five earned runs on nine hits over five innings against the Mets last April. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here as he was pitching on short rest (four days) in that previous outing against them and certainly wasn't in the same form he is now, noting that he battled injuries from that start on last year, ultimately making only two more trips to the hill (two months later) before being shut down for the season. Behind DeSclafani is a Giants bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 5.65 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this season but does come in relatively fresh after Tristan Beck did yeoman's work last night, tossing 5 1/3 innings in relief of an ineffective Sean Manaea, just one day after getting called from the minors. On the flip side, the Mets were forced to use key reliever Drew Smith for the second straight game (and third in the last four) meaning he likely won't be available for Friday's game. Remember, New York is already without closer Edwin Diaz and Stephen Nogosek due to injuries. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 211 | 79-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 8:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in these two teams' final regular season meeting back on March 31st - a game that totalled a whopping 246 total points. Since then, we've seen Games 1 and 2 of this playoff series stay comfortably 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however, as the scene shifts to Madison Square Garden for Game 3. Both defenses are terrific, that much we know. The offenses aren't too bad either though, even if the Knicks did turn in a brutal performance in Game 2. Keep in mind, Game 1 reached 198 total points despite both teams shooting poorly, knocking down a combined 73 field goals (they've combined to average 83 made field goals per game this season). Game 2's low-scoring result had a lot to do with the lopsided nature of the contest, with the Cavaliers racing ahead by 20 points before halftime and then effectively taking the air out of the basketball in the fourth quarter (they ran the shot clock down on nearly every possession in the final 7-8 minutes). Cleveland keyed on stopping Jalen Brunson on Tuesday after he scored 27 points in just 29 minutes in the series-opener. The Knicks supporting cast certainly didn't perform up to standards in Game 2 but I'm confident we'll see a solid bounce-back effort across the board here, including from Brunson as New York makes the necessary adjustments to find him more open looks. Note that Josh Hart was a virtual non-factor offensively in his 26 minutes as he played hurt with an ankle injury (he scored five points but averages double-figures this season). The extra day off between Games 2 and 3 should serve him well. On the flip side, Donovan Mitchell scored just 17 points in Game 2 - only the second time in the last nine games he contributed 30 points or less. Again, that had a lot to do with the lopsided nature of the game. Even if Darius Garland stays aggressive in Game 3, I still expect Mitchell to get his. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has not cashed in three straight meetings in this series since 2017. That stretch came across two seasons. To find the last time three consecutive matchups have stayed 'under' the total in the same season, you would have to go back to the 2015-16 campaign. Also note that in that most recent three-game series 'under' streak in 2017, only two of those contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight. Finally, we'll note that while the Knicks average 117.3 points per game at home this season, that number bumps up to 120.3 ppg when listed as a home favorite, as is the case here. Better still, the 'over' is 13-5 with New York playing at home following an 'under' result, with the Knicks averaging 121.4 points per contest and those games totalling an average of 235.1 points. Take the over (8*). |
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04-21-23 | Bruins -154 v. Panthers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Florida at 7:30 pm et on Friday. UPDATE: Patrice Bergeron has been ruled OUT which shouldn't come as a surprise. What is unexpected is that goaltender Linus Ullmark is questionable to start. Even if he can't go, I'll still recommend a play on the Bruins as they have one of the best backup goaltenders in the league in Jeremy Swayman who owns a .920 save percentage on the season (.912 on the road where the Bruins have gone 13-6 in his 19 starts). Most had written off the Panthers prior to their Game 2 victory in Boston on Wednesday, perhaps including the Bruins as they came out flat on home ice and as a result are tied at one game apiece as this series shifts to Sunrise on Friday. I'm not overly concerned about Boston's outlook in this series. For my money, the B's have one of the best coaching staffs in the league, led by Jim Montgomery. I don't think it will take much at all for him to get his experienced group ready to bounce back in Game 3. We hadn't seen the Bruins play as poorly as they did on Wednesday since suffering a 6-3 loss in Chicago way back on March 14th. They followed up that ugly effort with a near-flawless 3-0 road win in Winnipeg two nights later. In fact, the Bruins are 38-13 off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average. Perhaps better still, Boston is 19-4 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. While the Panthers are 43-41 overall this season, they're just 16-26 after scoring four goals or more in their previous contest, as is the case here. While the Panthers have posted consecutive wins over the Bruins as recently as 2019, you would have to go all the way back to the 2006-07 campaign to find the last time they beat the Bruins in two straight matchups in the same season. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-20-23 | Jets v. Golden Knights -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Vegas over Winnipeg at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Jets won Game 1 of this series by a lopsided score of 5-1 two nights ago but that final score didn't tell the whole story. It was a 2-1 game after two periods with Winnipeg pulling away late thanks to a pair of empty-net goals. Make no mistake, the Golden Knights came out inexplicably flat, managing just 17 shots on goal in the entire game. Perhaps given the fact they had swept the regular season series, were at home and had Mark Stone back in the lineup, a win would be assured. That simply wasn't the case as the Jets played a perfect playoff road game and earned at least a split in Las Vegas. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Golden Knights answer back, noting that they've only once previously lost consecutive home games against the Jets in their franchise history, and those two defeats came two-plus years apart in 2019 and 2022 (due to Covid-related scheduling quirks). Note that the Knights are 23-11 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. It's not as if this was a team playing poorly down the stretch. Quite the opposite, in fact, as Vegas secured a Pacific Division title thanks to going 24-9 over its final 33 regular season games. Over that stretch, the Knights lost consecutive games on only two occasions. They haven't dropped two straight games at home since January 14th to 19th when they lost three in a row here at T-Mobile Arena (that was in the midst of a 1-7 slide). Note that the Jets check in averaging just 2.3 goals per game after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation (15-game sample size). Meanwhile, the Knights have averaged 3.9 goals when seeking revenge for a loss in which they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal (17-game sample size). Take Vegas (10*). |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Warriors have had no answers for the aggressiveness of De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk through two games in this series. While the sudden absence of Draymond Green (due to suspension) doesn't figure to help matters, I actually think Golden State can spin it into a positive as it returns home in an 0-2 hole on Thursday. The absence of Green should mean more minutes for the likes of Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton Jr, all of which can help out on defense but also provide more of a spark offensively. Here, we'll note that the Warriors have gone 14-6 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss this season, averaging 120.6 points per game (compared to their home season scoring average of 119.7 ppg) while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.8 points in that situation. Better still, Golden State is 25-13 ATS at home off a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 9.6 points on average in that spot. While the Kings have averaged 118.0 points per game on the road this season, that number drops to 115.4 when checking in as a road underdog. Sacramento enters this game off consecutive wins but hasn't won three straight contests since March 15th to 18th and all three of those victories came against Eastern Conference opponents. Despite their poor start in this series, the Warriors check in 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games having not dropped three in a row since, coincidentally, March 15th to 18th. While Golden State has obviously struggled to defend Sacramento at times in this series, I do think the Warriors deserve credit for their defensively play in recent weeks. Note that Golden State has held 12 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals, despite nine of those foes getting off 90 or more field goal attempts. In stark contrast, the Kings have allowed 12 of their last 14 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. That's concerning when you consider that the Warriors have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts in five of their last seven games and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in 14 of their last 17 contests. In other words, I don't believe the sky is falling in San Francisco and expect the defending champions to get back in this series on Thursday. Take Golden State (10*). |
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04-20-23 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. You have to figure the Padres offense is going to explode sooner rather than later after being held to a grand total of two runs over their last four games and four runs or less in nine of their last 10 contests (they scored 10 runs in the lone outlier over that stretch). I actually like the way this spot sets up for the San Diego bats. Note that the Padres will be seeing Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson for the fourth time going back to last season. That's notable when you consider Nelson will only be making his seventh career big league start. Since getting shut down by Nelson in their first look at him last September, they've plated six earned runs on nine hits over just 10 1/3 innings against him, including a 5-4 loss at home back on April 3rd. San Diego has struggled mightily at the plate at home this season but has been much more productive on the road, where it averages 4.4 runs per game (compared to its season scoring average of 3.6 rpg). Here, we'll note that Nelson will be making his first career start on short (four days') rest. Note that while he has recorded a respectable 3.71 ERA so far this season, his 4.56 FIP tells a different story. After striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings in limited work last season, Nelson has seen that number drop to 5.3 this year. Michael Wacha will take the ball for the visiting Padres. He's had an up-and-down start to the campaign, most recently getting shelled by the red hot Brewers last time out. Wacha hasn't been quite as bad as his 6.06 ERA would seem to indicate but he hasn't been good either, recording a 4.79 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while allowing 24 of the 70 batters he's faced to reach base. I expect him to labor against a D'Backs lineup that can wear you out. Similar to the Guardians (who we won with yesterday), Arizona has speed to burn and is aggressive on the basepaths, with 19 stolen bases so far this season. While Wacha enjoyed a renaissance year of sorts with the Red Sox in 2022, his numbers have generally been on the decline and while he's capable of giving the Padres some quality innings, there are going to be some rough outings in the mix as well, as we saw in his most recent start. Behind Wacha is a Padres bullpen that hasn't enjoyed a day off since April 5th. San Diego relievers have logged a collective 3.93 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and have just 19 strikeouts compared to 14 walks over their last 25 innings of work. The D'Backs bullpen has been among the worst in baseball, posting a collective 5.51 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with those numbers ballooning to a 6.66 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the last seven games. It's been a week since Arizona had a day off and with a number of recent high-scoring games, its bullpen has been taxed. Take the over (10*). |
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04-20-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -160 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7 pm et on Thursday. The Maple Leafs already had their share of doubters making their voices loud and clear leading into this series - that's what happens when you're a high-profile team that hasn't made it past the first round in what seems like an eternity. Of course, the noise is even louder after Toronto dropped the opener of this series in blowout fashion on Tuesday. I'm confident we see the Leafs respond favorably in Game 2 on Thursday, however. While Toronto hasn't been able to win a first round series in nearly two decades, it has had plenty of success on an individual game level. In fact, the Leafs are 11-3 in the first five games of a series when coming off a loss going back to 2013. Over the last three seasons, Toronto is 30-7 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that spot. Better still, the Leafs are 13-1 when playing at home off a loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.9 goals on average along the way. The Lightning have to be pleased with stealing a game in Toronto when you consider they're just 19-23 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov has to shoulder some of the blame for their Game 1 loss as he wasn't sharp after being so good down the stretch. On the season, Samsonov still owns a solid .921 save percentage on home ice. On the flip side, Bolts netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy has had a down year by most accounts, entering Thursday's game with a .900 save percentage over his last four games and a .912 save percentage on the road this season. The Leafs will be without Michael Bunting as he's been suspended for his questionable hit on key Lightning defenseman Eric Cernak in Game 1. That's probably not a bad trade-off for the Leafs as Cernak will miss Game 2, severely testing Tampa Bay's defensive depth with all-world d-man Victor Hedman questionable to play due to injury as well. Finally, we'll note that the Bolts are just 3-8 when playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in four consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscored by 1.7 goals on average in that situation. Take Toronto (8*). |
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04-19-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw an incredibly low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) series-opener between these two teams on Sunday as the Nuggets cruised to a 109-80 victory. I certainly expect to see a positive response from the Timberwolves offensively on Wednesday. Note that Minnesota has scored 107, 112, 109, 123 and 119 points after being held under 100 points in its previous game this season. It's also worth mentioning that the T'Wolves have averaged 118.7 points per game when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season compared to their overall season scoring average of 115.2 points per game. After hoisting up only 81 field goal attempts despite trailing most of the way on Sunday, I expect the T'Wolves to make a concerted effort to push the pace here, noting they rank eighth in the league in fast break points per game this season. Of course, the Nuggets are favored by a generous helping of points for a reason. They've been considerably better offensively at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 119.1 points per game. They didn't have to be great offensively to win handily in Game 1 but I do think they'll get pushed a little more here. Note that they enter this game having knocked down more than 40 field goals in six straight and 15 of their last 17 games overall. Meanwhile, Minnesota hasn't had much success controlling its opponents' tempo, allowing eight of its last nine opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts. Take the over (10*). |
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04-19-23 | Wild v. Stars -146 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Perhaps the Stars got caught reading some of their own press leading up to this series as many picked them as a possible sleeper team to come out of the Western Conference. Regardless, it was a sluggish start on home ice for Dallas as it was outshot 29-15 through the first two periods of Game 1 (but remained level at two goals apiece) before waking up and outshooting the Wild 38-19 the rest of the way in an eventual 3-2 double-overtime loss. As if the Stars needed any more fuel for their fire, they lost Joe Pavelski to a head injury following a questionable hit from repeat-offender Matt Dumba (he won't be suspended for the hit). Pavelski has given the Stars nearly a point-per-game this season, something they likely weren't counting on heading into the campaign. I do think Dallas has more than enough depth (and experience) up front to make up for Pavelski's absence should he be sidelined on Wednesday. Here, we'll note that the Stars have held the opposition to just 2.5 goals per game and outscored foes by 1.0 goal on average when coming off a loss this season (33-game sample size). The Wild check in 4-10 when coming off a road win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, allowing 3.5 goals per contest and outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that situation. Minnesota has now taken consecutive matchups against the Stars but hasn't won three in a row in this series since 2020-21. Game 1 could have gone either way but the Stars have to at least be happy with the way they played over the game's final two-plus periods. Knowing this series will only get tougher as it progresses with the Wild expected to get both John Klingberg and Joel Eriksson Ek back in the lineup sooner rather than later, evening this series up on home ice is obviously paramount for Dallas on Wednesday. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a major adjustment to this pointspread since Game 1, due in large part to the up-in-the-air status of Ja Morant after he re-aggravated his hand injury in the series-opener. I believe it will prove too much of an adjustment as the Grizzlies look to answer back at home, where they're still an incredible 35-7 this season having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 10.0 points per game. Keep in mind, Memphis is accustomed to playing without Morant as it has done so on 22 occasions this season. Also note that he has topped out at 18 points in six of his last nine games so I do think his offensive production can be accounted for with Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard in particular being called upon. The Lakers are approaching uncharted territory noting that they've now won four straight games. They've only once previously won more than four games in a row this season, that coming in a five-game win streak from December 30th to January 7th. Also note that they've now covered the spread in consecutive meetings with the Grizzlies. They haven't managed to reel off three straight ATS victories in this series since way back in 2017. The fact that the Lakers pulled away in the closing minutes on Saturday sets them up in a situation where they've gone 18-35 ATS following a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS when playing at home following two or more days' rest this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 16.5 points on average in that spot. They've also 24-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.6 points in that situation. I could go on but the bottom line is, I don't anticipate the Lakers getting anything close to the combined 19-of-27 shooting we saw from the duo of Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura in Game 1, while the Grizzlies have proven resilient under head coach Taylor Jenkins going 23-10 ATS playing at home off a home loss and 38-22 ATS when coming off consecutive defeats. Take Memphis (8*). |
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04-19-23 | Twins -124 v. Red Sox | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series in extra innings last night but I look for the Twins to answer back on Wednesday. Joe Ryan will take the ball for Minnesota. He has posted terrific numbers through his first three starts this season and it hasn't had anything to do with smoke-and-mirrors. Ryan owns a 2.84 ERA and a 3.10 WHIP not to mention a sparkling 0.63 WHIP. Of the 70 batters he has faced, only 12 have reached base. Keep in mind, the right-hander posted a solid 3.99 FIP and 1.10 WHIP in his first full big league season last year. Behind Ryan is a Twins bullpen that has recorded a collective 2.75 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, converting five saves and blowing only two. Red Sox starter Corey Kluber has labored through his first three starts this season and he's been every bit as bad as his 6.92 ERA indicates, logging a 6.70 FIP and 1.46 WHIP in 13 innings of work. In stark contrast to Ryan, Kluber has allowed 19 of the 57 batters he has faced to reach base. The Red Sox bullpen has held up well but there's reason for concern as they've already logged a whopping 76 1/3 innings. Over the last seven games alone Red Sox relievers have worked 29 2/3 innings. Compare that to the Twins relief corps, which has been called into action for just 52 1/3 innings this season. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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04-19-23 | Guardians -137 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Guardians have lost three games in a row including a double-header sweep at the hands of the Tigers yesterday. All three of those contests could have gone either way as they were all decided by a single run. I expect to see the Guardians offense wake up on Wednesday afternoon as they face Spencer Turnbull of the Tigers. Turnbull hasn't been as bad as his inflated 9.00 ERA would seem to indicate but he hasn't been good either. The right-hander checks in sporting a 4.62 FIP and 1.92 WHIP through 13 innings of work. The Tigers have been careful with him as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. As I've noted on more than one occasion this season, the Guardians are a taxing opponent to face as they put a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers thanks to their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Here, they'll be facing Turnbull who has had a tendency to put a lot of runners on with 27 of the 63 batters he has faced reaching base so far this season. Behind Turnbull is a Tigers bullpen that held up well in yesterday's double-header but entered the day sporting a collective 5.46 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with only two saves converted and three blown this season. Cal Quantrill will take the ball for the Guardians. He has posted similar numbers to those of Turnbull so far this season. He hasn't had as much of an issue with his command, however, and will be facing the weaker of the two lineups in this contest (note that the Tigers 3, 4 and 5 hitters last night finished the game batting .189, .189 and .167, respectively). The hits have been falling in at an uncommon rate against Quantrill so far this season (12.1 hits allowed per nine innings) when you consider that he has only allowed more hits than innings pitched in one of his previous four big league seasons - that in his rookie campaign with the Padres in 2019). Quantrill has alternated good and bad outings against the Tigers over the course of his career but the Guardians have won his last two starts against them by a combined 18-4 score. Cleveland's bullpen entered yesterday's action with a collective 3.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in tow and didn't end up using closer Emmanuel Clase, keeping him fresh in case he's called upon on Wednesday afternoon. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-18-23 | Mets v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mets took the opener of this series by a score of 8-6 last night as the Dodgers fell below the .500 mark once again. I look for Los Angeles to answer back behind veteran starter Clayton Kershaw on Tuesday. New York will hand the ball to Tylor Megill. While he owns a sparkling 2.25 ERA through his first three starts this season, his 4.64 FIP tells a different story. Megill isn't really fooling many hitters with a 1.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 16 innings of work. Of the 65 batters he has faced, 19 have reached base. Note that Megill is headed into uncharted territory riding a five-game team win streak in his starts going back to last season. He's accomplished that feat once previously in his career with the Mets losing his next outing by a 9-2 score against the Braves, at home no less. Kershaw is off to a solid if not spectacular start this season having logged a 4.44 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. His command has been there as he has recorded 8.5 strikeouts and just 2.0 walks per nine innings. Note that Kershaw faced the Mets once last season and was effective, allowing just one earned run (on only one hit) while striking out six and walking three over five innings. The Dodgers have gone an incredible 15-3 in Kershaw's 18 career outings against New York but again, only last year's start was all that relevant as that was his first start against the Mets since 2019. The Mets bullpen has been terrific despite missing some key arms due to injury. However, I am concerned with the fact that their relief corps has already logged 62 1/3 innings. The Dodgers did save some of their key bullpen arms thanks to trailing by multiple runs over the game's final three innings last night. I certainly anticipate positive regression from the Los Angeles 'pen as it has uncharacteristically struggled so far this season, recording a collective 4.97 and 1.53 WHIP. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-18-23 | Rangers +118 v. Devils | Top | 5-1 | Win | 118 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We actually won with the Devils in each of the last two meetings between these two teams, most recently in their 2-1 victory here in Newark on March 30th. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Tuesday, however, as these two old Patrick Division rivals renew acquaintances in the postseason. The fact that New Jersey has won the last two matchups between these two teams is notable. The Devils haven't won three consecutive meetings in this series since 2020-21. They've met 14 times since. To find the last time New Jersey won three straight matchups in the same season you would have to go all the way back to 2013, when it still had Hall-of-Fame goaltender Martin Brodeur between the pipes. The Rangers also enter this playoff series on the heels of consecutive losses to close out the regular season. Of course those setbacks were of little consequence with playoff positioning already all but settled. Here, we'll note that the Rangers are 15-7 when playing on the road after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. They're also 26-14 when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. The Devils check in off consecutive wins to close out the regular season, including a come-from-behind 5-4 overtime victory in Washington last time out. Note that they're just 15-24 when playing at home after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last three seasons. While expectations are high for the Rangers entering these playoffs, I think starting on the road might be for the best as it does relieve some of the pressure. Note that New York was at its best away from home this season, going 24-17 while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.8 goals. Take New York (10*). |
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04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 229.5 | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Game 1 between these two teams on Saturday was an interesting affair that saw one quarter (the fourth) total only 42 points but another reach a whopping 70 points (the second). That contest ultimately cruised well below the total as both teams were inconsistent offensively. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 on Tuesday, however, as the Hawks look to punch back while the Celtics try to grab a 2-0 strangle-hold before the scene shifts to Atlanta. One thing is for sure, the Hawks are going to get their scoring opportunities. In four meetings in this series this season, Atlanta has hoisted up 101, 100, 97 and 98 field goal attempts. Saturday's game marked a low-water mark as the Hawks made good on just 42 of those attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see them shoot as poorly as they did on Saturday from beyond the arc (5-of-29 on three-point attempts). The problem is, even if Atlanta is able to do a much better job of taking advantage of its opportunities offensively, the Celtics are in line for some positive regression offensively as well and aren't likely to take their foot off the gas the way they did in the second half on Saturday. After scoring 74 points in the first half, Boston produced a miserable 38 points in the second half, actually letting the Hawks back into the game in the fourth quarter. Jaylen Brown clearly struggled after re-aggravating the laceration on his hand while Jayson Tatum scored well below his season average with 25 points on 10-of-23 shooting. Even going down the line, guys like Al Horford and Malcolm Brogdon made only minimal offensive contributions (11 points combined). Given the Hawks have now allowed more than 40 made field goals in 22 of their last 24 games and 40 or more in 26 of their last 28 contests, the Celtics are well-positioned to go off here. While Boston is still a terrific defensive team, we have certainly witnessed a shift this season with it yielding far more scoring opportunities thanks in large part to playing at a faster pace. The C's enter this game having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine contests. On the flip side, they've hoisted up 88 or more FG attempts themselves in 11 of their last 12 games. The Hawks have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total. While they've recorded 'under' streaks lasting three games or more on five previous occasions this season, I think their totals are being over-adjusted at this point. For instance, their most recent three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 31st saw all three contests total at least 231 points. Prior to that, a three-game 'under' streak from March 17th to 21st saw all three games reach at least 236 points. You get the idea. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-23 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10 pm et on Monday. There's a good chance we'll end up seeing the total set at 7 as this series progresses, at least that's how I see this matchup playing out. The Kings were banged-up down the stretch with the absences of Gabriel Vilardi and Kevin Fiala looming large. Both remain questionable to start this series but I'm assuming they'll both be out for Game 1 on Monday. Nevertheless, the Kings did figure out down the stretch they're not going to be successful if they can't ramp up their offense, even without some key contributors. I think we saw a turning point of sorts in their 4-3 home loss to the Avalanche on April 8th. They ended up scoring 3, 3 and 5 goals over their final three games after scoring two goals or less in four of their previous six contests. Note that over its last four games, Los Angeles fired 32, 41, 28 and 36 shots on goal. It will need to find some offense to pose any sort of challenge to the high-flying Oilers. Edmonton averaged an impressive 4.0 goals per game over the course of the regular season while the Kings gave up 3.2 goals per contest - a shell of its former self from a defensive perspective. Note that the 'under' has actually cashed in the last two meetings between these teams. We've seen three straight matchups go 'under' the total just once going all the way back to April of 2017, covering a span of 28 meetings. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 19-8 with the Kings playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here after the Oilers won 3-1 in Los Angeles on April 4th. That situation has produced an average total of 7.0 goals. Also note that the 'over' is 12-3 with the Oilers playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the same stretch, which is the situation here, leading to an average total of 7.6 goals in that spot. Take the over (8*). |
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04-17-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 10 pm et on Monday. The first game in this series breezed 'over' the total thanks to a parade to the free throw line with the two teams attempting a combined 59 shots from the charity stripe. Even with that in mind, they still 'only' eclipsed the total we're working with on Monday by nine points. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Warriors last two games. They haven't posted three straight 'over' results since the first week of February and even during that stretch they didn't see three consecutive games go 'over' the total we're working with here. While neither team is known for its defense, it's worth noting that the Warriors have held 11 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals while the Kings have limited five straight and eight of their last nine foes to that number or less. So in a sense we are dealing with a somewhat limited ceiling for the two offenses here. I certainly expect the Warriors to make some adjustments as they look to contain Malik Monk in particular after he went off in Game 1. On the flip side, Golden State could be without Jordan Poole for this game after he was limited due to injury in the series-opener. Gary Payton Jr. saw extended floor time with Poole struggling on Saturday with the former being more of a key defender than an offensive contributor. While the Warriors did shoot just 16-of-50 from three-point range on Saturday, that's not necessarily unexpected as they average 16 made threes per game on the road while the Kings have held the opposition to just 13 makes per game from beyond the arc here at home. Finally, I'll point out that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series go 'over' the total over the last 10 meetings. The last time that did occur was back in January and March of 2021. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8 | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in Houston on Monday. Kevin Gausman will take the ball for the visiting Blue Jays. He's off to a fine start to the campaign having posted a 2.57 FIP and 1.00 WHIP through his first three starts, allowing just 20-of-79 batters he's faced to reach base. With that said, he was visibly frustrated after allowing a pair of home runs (the first two he's given up this season) against the light-hitting Tigers in an otherwise fine outing last week. Keeping in mind, Gausman received A.L. Cy Young Award votes last year, logging a 2.38 FIP and 1.24 WHIP I expect the right-hander to keep up his strong pitching here. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He'll be looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the young season against the Pirates last week. Javier was of course a breakout star for the Astros last season, proving invaluable in the postseason to earn a lucrative five-year contract extension in the offseason. He had a fine Spring and still owns a solid 3.74 FIP and 1.18 WHIP through his first three regular season starts. While the hits have been falling in against him, I would anticipate him getting that sorted out sooner rather than later, noting that he has allowed just 5.9 hits per nine innings over the course of his 3+ year big league career. Note that despite his up-and-down start, Javier has actually allowed only 21-of-71 batters he's faced to reach base. Both teams kept their key bullpen arms fresh yesterday thanks to lopsided defeats. Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano should be available after suffering a rib contusion on Saturday. Note that the Jays 'pen has recorded a collective 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this season while the Astros relief corps has had little to do with the team's slow start, logging a respectable 3.95 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Take the under (8*). |
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04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies OVER 227 | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Memphis at 3 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers were involved in an incredibly low-scoring game against the Timberwolves in the Play-In Tournament - a contest that reached only 210 total points despite being aided by overtime. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as they open the first round against the Grizzlies on Sunday afternoon. Memphis was a shell of its former self defensively down the stretch and I'm not convinced we see it simply 'flip the switch' here. The Grizzlies check in having allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Of those 11 opponents, six made good on 44 or more field goals. On the flip side, Memphis found its rhythm offensively, knocking down at least 40 field goals in 14 of its last 15 contests. Since March 15th, we've seen the Grizzlies post consecutive 'under' results only once (I point that out as their most recent game did stay 'under' the total) and only one of those two contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with on Sunday. The Lakers had an off shooting night against the T'Wolves last time out but were in line for some regression after making good on 45 or more field goals in each of their previous seven games. Defensively, the Lakers had yielded 40 or more made field goals in an incredible 16 straight games before holding the T'Wolves to only 36 on Tuesday (note that Minnesota was severely limited offensively in that game with Anthony Edwards banged-up and rendered ineffective and Rudy Gobert sidelined due to suspension). Los Angeles has allowed an average of 45-of-94 shooting on the road this season. Take the over (8*). |
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04-16-23 | Guardians v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland at Washington at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. While the scoring fizzled in the second half of the game, last night's contest between these two teams did find its way 'over' the total. I expect a similar result on Sunday as the Guardians look to wrap up a series sweep with ace Shane Bieber taking the ball against Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. Bieber has been terrific as expected in the early going this season. I do think some regression is in store, however, noting that he has posted a 2.52 FIP and 0.95 WHIP through his first three outings after logging a 2.87 FIP and 1.04 WHIP last year (he finished seventh in A.L. Cy Young Award voting). Note that the Nationals have faced their share of tough pitchers at home already this season with their previous two series' in the host role coming against the Braves and Rays. Yet they've still averaged 3.0 runs per game here at Nationals Park and 3.5 rpg when facing right-handed starting pitching, as will be the case today. It's also worth noting that the Guardians have used setup man James Karinchak and closer Emmanuel Clase in each of the last two games so they'll either be unavailable or see their effectiveness diminished on Sunday. On the flip side, much like last night against Chad Kuhl, the Guardians should have little trouble getting to Nats' starter Patrick Corbin. He checks in sporting a 6.15 FIP and 2.14 WHIP this season. Of the 71 batters he has faced, 30 have reached base. As I noted in yesterday's analysis of the Guardians, they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths and I'm confident we'll see them knock Corbin off his game early on Sunday. Behind Corbin is a pedestrian Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 4.23 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with three saves converted and three blown this season. Take the over (8*). |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento over Golden State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting the Warriors to simply 'flip the switch' and play competitive basketball on the road in these playoffs but I'm not so easily convinced. Golden State actually had just nine wins in 39 road games before beating this same Kings squad (in a game where it rested most of its starters) and a down-trodden, injury-riddled Blazers team last week. Even in that win over the Kings, the Warriors still managed to get off only 78 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Warriors, despite fighting for their playoff lives down the stretch, still allowed each of their last six opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. The Kings figure to be poised to take advantage, noting that they average 45 made field goals per contest (on only 88 FG attempts per game) here at home this season. The Warriors won last week's meeting SU and ATS but haven't posted consecutive ATS victories in this series since late 2021. Here, we'll note that the Kings are 21-12 ATS off a loss this season and 12-1 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS, as is the case here. Take Sacramento (8*). |