Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-27-24 | Clippers -5.5 v. 76ers | 108-107 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. What's wrong with the Clippers? That question has come up countless times after they went 0-2 on their most recent homestand, including a blowout loss against the same 76ers that they'll face on Wednesday. After a red hot run that lasted from early December until early February, the wheels have come off for Los Angeles as it has dropped the cash in 16 of its last 22 games. I do like the revenge spot on Wednesday, however, noting that the Clippers are 26-21 ATS in their last 47 games following an upset loss, as is the case here, including a 7-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Better still, they're 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests following consecutive home defeats including a 2-0 ATS record in that spot this season. Philadelphia checks in 11-13 ATS in its last 24 games as a home underdog including a 2-5 ATS record in that role this season. The 76ers will be playing on just one day of rest following a four-game western road trip and looking ahead to playing five of their next six games away from home as well. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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03-27-24 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams found their way 'over' the total in the front half of this home-and-home set on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday in Charlotte. Note that the Cavaliers knocked down 46 field goals in that victory. They simply shot the lights out but were by no means volume-shooters, getting off just 86 field goal attempts. In fact, the Cavs have hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight and eight of their last nine games. They haven't connected on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games since a three-game streak from February 25th to 28th. The Hornets have been far worse offensively in recent weeks. They've made good on 38 or fewer field goals in five straight games. They've have a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting just 82, 79, 84 and 80 field goals over their last four games. While Charlotte is by no means an elite defensive team, it has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities, holding eight of its last 10 foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Cavs last 14 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including an 8-0 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-18 in the Cavs last 43 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, including an 8-6 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 22-11 in the Hornets last 33 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 14-5 mark this season. Finally, the 'under' is 29-20 in Charlotte's last 49 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent including an 11-8 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-24 | Ducks v. Seattle Kraken -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 130 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -1.5 goals over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Kraken exceeded expectations last season but haven't come close to doing so here in 23-24 as they'll miss the playoffs. I do expect them to show some pride on Tuesday as they look to snap their eight-game losing streak and bounce back from an ugly 5-1 home loss at the hands of the Canadiens on Sunday. They're well-positioned to do just that against a Ducks squad that has been outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals per game on the road this season. Note that Anaheim is 13-42 (-21.8 net games) in its last 55 games when seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 3-15 (-9.6 net games) mark in that situation this season. Seattle hasn't produced many victories lately but 11 of its last 14 wins have come by two goals or more. The price is right to back the Kraken on the puck-line on Tuesday. Take Seattle -1.5 goals (8*). |
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03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks OVER 232 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are well-positioned to go off offensively on Tuesday as they wrap up their three-game homestand against an injury-depleted Lakers squad. Milwaukee has connected on 51, 45, 43 and 49 field goals over its last four games. It has also been playing faster, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. That spells trouble for a matador-like Lakers defense that has allowed more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last eight games, yielding at least 96 field goal attempts in four straight games and 92 or more in 10 of its last 11 contests. I do think the Lakers offense can be brought along for the ride in this game so to speak. Keep in mind, the Bucks have a poor track record as home favorites, going 57-62 ATS in their last 119 games in that role including a 15-18 ATS record this season. Milwaukee has allowed three of its last four opponents to connect on at least 40 field goals. The 'over' is 54-33 in the Lakers last 87 contests as a road underdog including a 13-8 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-25 in the Bucks last 52 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 13-9 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-24 | 76ers v. Kings UNDER 222 | 96-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The 76ers entered Sunday's game against the Clippers on a 7-0-1 'under' run but that game ended up sailing 'over' the posted total. I look for a return to 'normal' on Monday as Philadelphia wraps up its western road swing with a stop in Sacramento. Philadelphia has now held eight of its last nine opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. It has also limited 10 of its last 11 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. While the Sixers did bust out for 48 made field goals against the Clips on Sunday they had been limited to 41 or fewer in 11 straight and 16 of their last 17 contests prior to that. The Kings figure to offer considerable resistance here as they've held eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Sacramento has connected on 42 or fewer field goals itself in four of its last five contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-30 in the Kings last 75 games as a home favorite including a 19-10 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 213.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a low-scoring victory in San Antonio on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Denver to face the Nuggets on Monday. Note that Memphis has been trending toward higher-scoring affairs on its current road trip having hoisted up 92 and 96 field goal attempts in regulation time in two of three contests. Denver has actually proven vulnerable defensively, or at least more than usual, in recent contests allowing three of its last four foes to connect on at least 42 field goals. Speaking of vulnerability at the defensive end of the floor, Memphis has allowed 44 or more made field goals in regulation time in four of its last seven games. The Nuggets continue to thrive offensively having connected on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games and 45 or more nine times over that stretch. Note that the 'over' is 37-33 in Memphis' last 70 games as a road underdog including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-6 in the Nuggets last 16 home games with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including a 3-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Grand Canyon plus the points over Alabama at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. I think most are still sleeping on Grand Canyon, even after its upset win over St. Mary's in the opening round of this tournament. The Antelopes aren't some upstart - they actually check in 50th in the country according to KenPom's overall rankings. They do everything reasonably well and play at a fast enough pace to not get overwhelmed by Alabama in this particular matchup. The Crimson Tide prevailed by double-digits against Charleston in the opening round. They continue to thrive offensively but can be had defensively, ranking just 117th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Note that Grand Canyon is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 games as an underdog including a 3-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. Alabama did cover the spread in its tournament opener but remains just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 NCAA Tournament contests including a 2-3 ATS record over the last three seasons. Take Grand Canyon (10*). |
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03-24-24 | Warriors v. Wolves OVER 218.5 | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Warriors continue to give up far too many scoring opportunities having allowed four straight opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. In fact, nine of their last 11 opponents have connected on more than 40 field goals. Minnesota has been far stingier defensively - one of the best defensive teams in the league, in fact. However, Golden State has been rather matchup-proof from an offensive standpoint, knocking down more than 40 field goals in 11 of its last 13 contests. I do think the Warriors will put up a fight in this game off that tough home loss against the Pacers on Friday. The Timberwolves have been as steady as they've been all season offensively in recent weeks, connecting on 40 or more field goals in five straight and seven of their last eight games. The 'over' is 44-36 in Golden State's last 80 games as an underdog including a 16-10 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 12-10 in the Timberwolves last 22 contests with the total set between 210 and 219.5 including a 6-3 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-24-24 | James Madison v. Duke UNDER 148.5 | 55-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between James Madison and Duke at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. I think we saw a pretty good blueprint of what these two teams want to do in this tournament in the opening round on Saturday, even if both did end up shooting poorly. James Madison will be an underdog throughout the Big Dance and I think there's a path to success if it can effectively shorten proceedings and limit scoring opportunities for the opposition. Duke doesn't play at all that fast of a pace, ranking 236th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Note that the Blue Devils have held five of their last seven opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of James Madison's last six foes has managed to get off 60 or more field goal attempts. The 'under' is 21-15 in James Madison's last 36 games following a double-digit win including a 13-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-24 in Duke's last 54 contests following an ATS victory including a 10-8 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton UNDER 146 | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Creighton at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. Oregon's opening round victory over South Carolina didn't have much business getting 'over' the total or certainly not reaching 160 total points. The Ducks actually got off just 47 field goal attempts in that contest while holding South Carolina to 25-of-56 shooting. Oregon quite simply shot the lights out but I think it will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance against Creighton on Saturday. While the Blue Jays are known for their offensive prowess they can play some defense as well. Note that they check in ranked 26th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Both teams rank around the 200 mark in terms of adjusted tempo so neither team plays exceptionally fast. Note that the 'under' is 24-21 in Oregon's last 45 games following an ATS win including an 8-7 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-12 in Creighton's last 27 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-6 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-23-24 | Kings v. Magic UNDER 216 | 109-107 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic are coming off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Sacramento has seen the 'under' cash in six of its last seven contests. The Kings have held seven straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. They'll face a challenge against a consistent Magic offense here but Sacramento has been relatively matchup-proof defensively having limited 21 of its last 24 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Orlando has held an incredible 13 straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Like the Kings, the Magic are also limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, giving up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 12 straight and 16 of their last 17 games. At home, Orlando should be able to dictate the pace and it has hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 31 of its last 33 contests. The 'under' is 41-29 in Sacramento's last 70 games as a road underdog including an 11-7 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in Orlando's last 17 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 6-1 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-23-24 | Washington State v. Iowa State -6 | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Washington State at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. Washington State pulled off a minor upset win over Drake in the opening round but I look for the Cougars run to end against Iowa State on Saturday. Note that Washington State has only faced the 84th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Iowa State on the other hand has gone up against the 45th toughest slate of opponents and checks in ranked as the sixth ranked team in the country according to KenPom's overall rankings. The Cougars are just 21-28 ATS in their last 49 contests following an ATS win including an 8-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Cyclones are quite simply one of the best bets in the country this season having gone 24-10 ATS to date and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 contests after scoring 80 points or more in their previous game including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Iowa State (8*). |
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03-23-24 | Gonzaga v. Kansas UNDER 151.5 | 89-68 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and Kansas at 3:15 pm et on Saturday. I understand the logic behind the high total in this matchup. After all, both teams exploded offensively in the opening round with Gonzaga scoring 86 points in a rout of McNeese State and Kansas putting up 93 points in a narrow escape against Samford. I don't think we'll see that same type of contest on Saturday, however. Kansas ranks 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but 61st in adjusted offensive efficiency. It's the reverse for Gonzaga as it ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency but 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. All that to say that the 'under' is 24-23 in the Bulldogs last 47 games following an 'over' result including an 8-5 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 27-25 in Gonzaga's last 52 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-5 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-35 in Kansas' last 96 games as an underdog including an 8-5 record in that situation over the last three seasons. When playing with one day or less of rest, the Jayhawks have seen the 'under' go 16-8 over the last three seasons including a perfect 4-0 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-22-24 | Grand Canyon +5.5 v. St. Mary's | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Grand Canyon plus the points over St. Mary's at 10:05 pm et on Friday. As is often the case, I wonder whether St. Mary's used up everything it had in the tank in climbing the WCC mountain to defeat Gonzaga in the tournament championship game last weekend. Grand Canyon got a taste of NCAA Tournament action last year, falling by 12 points in the first round against aforementioned Gonzaga. It enters this tournament ranked 53rd in the country this season according to KenPom. Note that St. Mary's is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 NCAA Tournament games and 11-14 ATS in its last 25 contests following consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon is 11-7 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog including a 2-0 ATS mark this season. Take Grand Canyon (8*). |
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03-22-24 | 76ers +8 v. Lakers | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The 76ers offense has struggled but I think they can be brought along for the ride against the Lakers on Friday. Los Angeles has allowed six straight and 27 of its last 28 opponents to connect on more than 40 field goals. In fact, the Lakers have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Los Angeles knocked down 52 field goals in its most recent game against Atlanta on Monday. Note that the Lakers are just 1-4 straight-up following a game in which they made good on 50 or more field goals this season. Philadelphia checks in 27-23 ATS in its last 50 games following a road loss including a 9-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Los Angeles is 15-17 ATS in its last 32 contests following a double-digit home victory including a 4-6 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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03-22-24 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 240 | Top | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers aren't the same team they were earlier in the season, playing at a slower pace and doing a much better job defensively. They check in with the 'under' having cashed in 11 of their last 14 games and we'll go that way again as they continue their road trip in San Francisco on Friday. Note that Indiana has held three straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only six of its last 17 opponents have managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. The Warriors have shot incredibly well over the last three games but are likely to face some resistance here. On the flip side, they've held five of their last six and 20 of their last 25 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 26-21 in the Pacers last 47 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Warriors last 15 contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-24 | Yale +13 v. Auburn | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Auburn at 4:15 pm et on Friday. Auburn is a trendy pick to win it all but I expect it to get a scare against Ivy League opponent Yale on Friday afternoon. The Tigers are less than week removed from winning the SEC Tournament in blowout fashion against Florida. Meanwhile, Yale was nearly upset in the Ivy League Final against Brown, prevailing by a single point but never sniffing out an ATS cover. The Bulldogs are no pushovers. They've faced the 128th most difficult schedule in the country this season - not bad by Ivy League standards - and have hung tough sitting inside the top-100 both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. What I really like about Yale in this particular matchup is their ability to be efficient on offense while also limiting their opponents' possessions. The Bulldogs rank 329th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. They've been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, connecting on 25 or more field goals in 25 of 31 games. Note that Yale is a long-term 137-120 ATS as an underdog including a 13-11 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Auburn is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when seeded number four or higher in the NCAA Tournament, as is the case here. Take Yale (8*). |
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03-22-24 | UABĀ +7 v. San Diego State | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on UAB plus the points over San Diego State at 1:45 pm et on Friday. I don't think UAB is getting enough respect after beating three quality opponents in three days on its way to an AAC Tournament title last week. The Blazers have quietly put together a 20-12 ATS record in lined games this season. While few were paying attention back in November, they opened the campaign with an extremely tough three-game slate, at home against Bradley followed by neutral site contests against Clemson and Maryland. UAB went 2-1 ATS in those three contests with the lone defeat coming by two points against Bradley. Going back to January 14th the Blazers have rattled off an incredible 15 ATS victories in 19 games. San Diego State certainly took the Mountain West Conference Tournament seriously, reaching the final against New Mexico (it lost that game 68-61). I see this as a tough opening round draw for the Aztecs as the Blazers figure to push the pace and make them uncomfortable. UAB is efficient enough to back it up, ranking inside the country's top-60 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). A big reason why San Diego State has only managed to go 13-19 ATS this season is that it is good enough to be favored in most contests but doesn't generate enough scoring opportunities to cover those spreads. The Aztecs rank 266th in the country in adjusted tempo. UAB has connected on 30 or more field goals in five of its last eight games while San Diego State has reached that number just once since the end of January and six times all season. The Blazers have been a solid positive momentum play in recent years going 28-26 ATS in their last 54 games following an ATS win including a 13-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, San Diego State is just 22-27 ATS in its last 49 contests following an ATS loss including a 7-11 ATS record in that spot this season. Take UAB (10*). |
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03-21-24 | Hawks +10 v. Suns | 115-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Phoenix at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are coming off a win and cover last night at home against the 76ers but I expect them to have a tougher time covering the lofty pointspread against a rested Hawks squad on Thursday. The injuries are certainly piling up for Atlanta with Jalen Johnson the latest to go down. With that being said, the Suns have consistently been bringing the opposition along for the ride so to speak, regardless the competition level, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in 26 of their last 30 games. They've allowed their foes to knock down at least 40 field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has hoisted up 90 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. While Atlanta hasn't exactly been the picture of consistency at either end of the floor, it does check in having limited eight of its last 12 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Hawks are finding their scoring opportunities, getting off more than 90 field goal attempts in three of their last five contests and connecting on 41 or more field goals in three straight games. Despite last night's victory, Phoenix is still just 20-29 ATS in its last 49 games as a home favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 2-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Worse still, the Suns are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 contests following a double-digit home win including a 1-8 ATS showing in that spot this season. While there are numerous fade signs flashing when it comes to the Hawks, they have reeled off four straight wins in this particular series, both SU and ATS including three in outright underdog fashion. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Drake v. Washington State OVER 138 | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Drake and Washington State at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Washington State enters this tournament off three straight 'under' results but that streak can be easily explained. The Cougars first faced Washington with an inflated total set in the mid-140's off consecutive 'over' results. That game actually surpassed the total we're working with tonight, reaching 142 points. Next they exploded for just shy of 80 points but Stanford wasn't a capable dance partner producing only 62 points in a blowout result (that also still eclipsed the total we're working with here). Finally, Washington State was ousted from the Pac-12 Tournament in a defensive struggle against Colorado (we saw what the Buffaloes are capable of defensively in their win over Boise State in First Four action last night). Drake wants to push the pace and is efficient offensively ranking well inside the country's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. It doesn't have a defense to go along with it, however, as the Bulldogs enter this tourney ranked 72nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, having allowed nine of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-11 in Drake's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-14 in Washington State's last 31 contests after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game including a 7-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Predators v. Panthers -170 | 3-0 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Nashville at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Predators enter this game on the heels of three straight wins to give themselves considerable breathing room in the Western Conference playoff race. They're now eight points ahead of the 'first team out', the Minnesota Wild, with a game-in-hand. With that being said, they're not catching the third place team in the Central Division and they have a five-point cushion over the second Wild Card team, the Vegas Golden Knights. Florida checks in on a rare losing streak having dropped each of its last two games. The Panthers can still earn a split of this brief two-game homestand before a tough back-to-back set in New York and Philadelphia on the weekend. Note that Florida is 13-3 (+10.6 net games) in its last 16 games following consecutive losses by two goals or more, as is the case here, including a perfect 4-0 (+4.6 net games) record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Nashville is 9-14 (-7.9 net games) in its last 23 contests following a home win by three goals or more including a 2-5 (-4.4 net games) mark in that spot this season. Take Florida (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Colorado State +2.5 v. Texas | 44-56 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado State plus the points over Texas at 6:50 pm et on Thursday. Texas has had a real problem with stepping up in big games away from home this season and has been a bad bet overall, going 12-20 ATS. Noting that the Longhorns are 34-41 ATS in their last 75 games as a favorite including a 7-14 ATS mark in that situation this season, I can't help but feel the wrong team is laying points in this particular matchup. Colorado State has been a solid positive momentum play in recent years, going 33-29 ATS when coming off a victory over the last three seasons including a 14-9 ATS record in that spot this season. Remember, the Rams defeated a pair of teams currently ranked higher than Texas according to KenPom in Creighton and Colorado earlier in the campaign. Take Colorado State (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Nevada v. Dayton OVER 136.5 | 60-63 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Nevada and Dayton at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. This one won't be considered among the potential track meets in the opening round of the tournament but I expect it to get 'over' the reasonable total nonetheless. Nevada enters the tourney riding a six-game 'over' streak. Meanwhile, Dayton had its own six-game 'over' streak snapped in its upset loss against Duquesne in Atlantic-10 Tournament action last week. Neither team plays all that fast but both are ultra-efficient offensively and find ways to put points on the board. I think the matador-like defense of Dayton in particular is worth noting here as it has allowed five of its last seven opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Nevada's opponents have displayed a rock solid offensive floor, connecting on 23 or more field goals in five of their last six games and more than 20 in 14 of their last 17 contests. Take the over (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Oregon v. South Carolina UNDER 133.5 | 87-73 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and South Carolina at 4 pm et on Thursday. We'll once again target PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh for a potentially low-scoring affair between Oregon and South Carolina on Thursday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last time this venue hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action was in 2022 and the six games played here resulted in an average total of just 124.2 points. Oregon sits just inside the country's top-200 in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Meanwhile, South Carolina ranks 354th (out of 362 Division I teams) in the same category. The Ducks certainly ramped up their defensive play down the stretch, holding each of their last four opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals on the way to a Pac-12 Tournament title. The Gamecocks didn't enjoy the same success as they met their demise at the hands of an ultra-athletic Auburn squad in the SEC Tournament. However, South Carolina does check in having held 12 of its last 14 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. On the season, the Gamecocks rank just three spots outside the country's top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The 'under' is 9-6 in Oregon's last 15 games following consecutive ATS wins including a 3-2 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 25-12 in South Carolina's last 37 non-conference affairs including a 7-6 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Akron v. Creighton UNDER 141.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Creighton at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. Creighton tends to carry a reputation as an up-tempo offensive team and bettors are generally quick to support the 'over' in games involving the Blue Jays, especially at this time of year. We've already seen this total get bet up a couple of points and I believe it will prove too high. Pittsburgh's PPG Paints Arena last hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action in 2022. The six games played in this venue totalled an average of only 124.2 total points with just one of those contests surpassing the total we're working with in this particular contest on Thursday. Akron will certainly have its work cut out for it on Thursday but it does likely come in with a gameplan in mind and that's slowing this game to a crawl. Note that the Zips rank 268th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. They're also inside the top-100 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Considering Akron boasts the 162nd ranked offense (in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency) it doesn't figure to be interested in giving Creighton (and its 12th-ranked offense) any more possessions than it has to. Of note, the Blue Jays actually rank just outside the top-200 in adjusted tempo so it's not as if they're playing at a frenetic pace this season. Yes, they've been ultra-efficient but I do think playing at a larger venue like the one in Pittsburgh serves as an equalizer in a sense. The 'under' is 21-17 in Akron's last 38 games with the total set in the 140's including a 12-5 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 27-13 in the Zips last 40 contests played on a neutral court as an underdog including a perfect 3-0 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-18 in Creighton's last 47 postseason tournament games including 16-9 in its last 25 NCAA Tournament contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-24 | Duquesne +10.5 v. BYU | 71-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Duquesne plus the points over BYU at 12:40 pm et on Thursday. I like the Dukes chances of hanging tough on Thursday as they look to build on the positive momentum gained from their incredible run to an Atlantic-10 Tournament title last week. BYU will only go as far as its three-point shooting takes it and this is a tough matchup in that regard. Duquesne holds the opposition to an average of just seven made threes per game including only six per contest away from home. The Dukes rank inside the top-30 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. They play a chaotic brand of defense that produces turnovers. Turnovers lead to extra offensive possessions and against a BYU defense that ranks just 50th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, I look for the Dukes to get theirs. Take Duquesne (8*). |
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03-20-24 | Wild v. Kings -145 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Minnesota at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wild bounced back from a 3-2 loss in St. Louis with a 4-0 drubbing of the lowly Ducks last night in Anaheim. That sets them up poorly as they wrap up their three-game road trip in Los Angeles on Wednesday. Note that Minnesota is 4-7 (-5.2 net games) when coming off a shutout performance over the last three seasons and a long-term 21-30 (-10.8 net games) when following up a road shutout. The Wild are also 14-25 (-23.3 net games) when coming off a road win in which they scored four goals or more. Additionally, Minnesota is 42-52 (-15.7 net games) when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Kings are a steady 9-6 (+1.9 net games) after scoring six goals or more in their previous contest over the last three seasons, which is the situation here following last night's 6-2 rout of the Blackhawks. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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03-20-24 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. To say there's a low ceiling on the 76ers offense right now would be an understatement. Philadelphia has been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in nine straight and 14 of its last 15 games. The only occasion where it broke through that ceiling was on March 1st at home against the lowly Hornets. On the flip side, the 76ers continue to play tough defense. They've held six straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Better still, they've limited nine straight foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Suns are coming off a bad defensive effort against the Bucks in Milwaukee on Sunday. They are capable of rising to the occasion in that department, however, as they've held nine of their last 14 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns offense while carrying a reputation of playing fast, has gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in two straight and five of their last six games. Note that the 'under' is 36-22 in the Sixers last 58 games as a road underdog including a 9-5 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 35-17 in Phoenix's last 52 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 10-3 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-20-24 | VCU v. Villanova UNDER 131 | Top | 70-61 | Push | 0 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between VCU and Villanova at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This game is flashing 'under' as two teams that are obviously disappointed to not be playing in the Big Dance match up in NIT action on Wednesday night in Villanova. VCU lost in a slugfest in the Atlantic-10 Championship against Duquesne. The Rams rank outside the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency and 302nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Where VCU shines of course is at the defensive end of the floor, sitting 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. This is a matchup it figures to handle against a Villanova offense that has disappointed, ranking 84th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 350th in adjusted tempo. Only 12 Division I teams have played at a slower pace this season. The Wildcats have been even better than the Rams defensively this season, ranking 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. While there's always the chance we see a late scoring flurry in a game in this pointspread range, I'm willing to take my chances with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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03-19-24 | Cal-Irvine +7.5 v. Utah | Top | 75-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Week. My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Utah at 11 pm et on Tuesday. Utah probably feels like it deserved a better fate but the wins and losses simply didn't add up for the Utes to reach the NCAA Tournament. Here they are in the NIT and while Cal-Irvine won't catch a lot of attention by name recognition only, the Anteaters have the pedigree and the personnel to give Utah all it can handle on Tuesday night. Cal-Irvine enters the NIT on an offensive tear. The Anteaters have knocked down 30, 30, 31, 31, 28 and 32 field goals over their last six contests. That's to go along with a defense that ranks 40th in the country (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric) - one spot above tonight's opponent, Utah. The Utes have quite simply been an unreliable bet since New Year's Eve, going 8-13 ATS over their last 21 games. While the Anteaters failed to deliver the cash in their most recent game against NCAA Tournament-bound Long Beach State, they've never lost more than two games in a row ATS this season and that happened only three times previously. In fact, the Anteaters are 23-16 ATS in their last 39 games following an ATS loss including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah, meanwhile, has gone 57-69 ATS in its last 126 tournament games (in-season or postseason) including a 4-8 ATS record over the last three seasons. I simply feel the Utes are laying too many points on Tuesday. Take Cal-Irvine (10*). |
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03-19-24 | Jets v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in six straight meetings in this series and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Winnipeg has scored six goals in consecutive games but those came against the Ducks and Blue Jackets - two of the league's worst defensive teams. Here, the Jets will run into a red hot Rangers squad that has allowed just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. Winnipeg road games have totalled an average of only 5.4 goals. Note that the 'under' is 12-9 in the Jets last 21 games following three straight 'over' results, as is the case here, including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 40-23 in Winnipeg's last 63 contests following consecutive wins including a 15-8 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-4 in the Rangers last 13 games following consecutive wins by three goals or more and 10-4 in their last 14 contests after scoring five goals or more in two straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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03-19-24 | Wagner v. Howard UNDER 128.5 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wagner and Howard at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. This has the potential to be a slugfest between two little-known schools that have everything to play for in Dayton on Tuesday. Wagner ranks 361st (out of 362 Division I schools) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. It got even slower offensively down the stretch, getting off 57, 54 and 49 field goal attempts over its last three contests. Howard wants to play faster but I don't think it will be given much room to breathe in this particular matchup. Note that Wagner checks in having held four straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals. The Bison actually played slower down the stretch, getting off 52 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their final 10 games. Limiting scoring opportunities is half the battle and in that regard, Howard has performed well, allowing 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of its last 11 contests. Wagner has connected on more than 23 field goals just once in its last eight games. Take the under (8*). |
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03-18-24 | Wolves v. Jazz +7.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Timberwolves easily brushed aside the Jazz in the first half of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday. I expect Utah to provide a lot more resistance in Monday's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves have now won back-to-back road games. They're just 29-43 ATS in their last 72 contests following consecutive road wins including a 6-9 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Minnesota is also just 3-9 ATS this season after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. Meanwhile, Utah is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games as a home underdog including a 13-7 ATS mark this season. Additionally, the Jazz are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games played with triple-revenge, as is the case here. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-17-24 | Hawks +9.5 v. Clippers | 110-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Atlanta has lost three games in a row both SU and ATS including the first two games of its current road trip. I look for the Hawks to put up a fight on Sunday in Los Angeles, however. The Clippers will be hard-pressed to cover spreads like this when they've gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. In stark contrast, the Hawks have hoisted up 87 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. The Clips aren't exactly locked-in defensively right now having allowed four straight opponents knock down more than 40 field goals. Note that the road team has covered the spread in four straight meetings in this series. The underdog has gone 7-5 ATS in the last 12 matchups. Finally, we'll note that Los Angeles is 48-57 ATS in its last 105 contests following a loss including a 10-13 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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03-17-24 | Hurricanes v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Ottawa at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. The Hurricanes pulled out a 6-5 shootout win in Toronto last night but that's obviously not how head coach Rod Brind'Amour wants his team playing as the playoffs quickly approach. Carolina trailed that game 3-0 in the second period and by two goals with less than two minutes remaining. I look for the Canes to tighten things up considerably as they continue their road trip in Ottawa on Sunday. The Senators have shown some life lately, securing three straight victories including yesterday's overtime win on Long Island. Yesterday's contest marked their first in four games to go 'over' the total and they haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since February 24th and 26th. Note that the 'under' is 20-18 in the Canes last 38 games played on the second of back-to-back days including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 41-32 in the Senators last 73 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored four goals or more, as is the case here, including a 15-12 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-17-24 | Nuggets v. Mavs +2.5 | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Denver at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade the Nuggets on Sunday as they come in feeling good about themselves off consecutive wins to open their current road trip. Note that Denver is just 24-27 ATS in its last 51 games as a road favorite of six points or less including an 8-10 ATS mark int hat situation this season. Meanwhile, Dallas checks in off a loss in Oklahoma City on Thursday and is 36-27 ATS in its last 63 contests following a road loss including a 7-6 ATS record in that spot this season. The Mavs are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Dallas (8*). |
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03-17-24 | Duquesne +2 v. VCU | Top | 57-51 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My selection is on Duquesne plus the points over VCU at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll grab all the points we can get with Duquesne on Sunday as I think the Dukes might just be the better team in this matchup. It's not as if VCU is having all that memorable of a campaign. The Rams have gone 22-12 and their current three-game winning streak is their longest since a four-gamer from February 3rd to 16th. Duquesne checks in 23-11 on the season and riding a seven-game winning streak. The Dukes have turned incredibly stingy at the defensive end of the floor, rising all the way to 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). They've won consecutive matchups with VCU including a double-digit road win just 12 days ago. The Rams have the pedigree but the Dukes have the better team in my opinion. Take Duquesne (8*). |
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03-16-24 | Avalanche v. Oilers -125 | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton over Colorado at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. I've been waiting to make this play since the Avalanche rallied from a 3-0 deficit to defeat the Canucks 4-3 in overtime and improve to 2-0 on their current road trip on Wednesday. The Oilers come in rested and having been at home since wrapping up a four-game eastern road swing last Sunday. They've rattled off back-to-back wins including a 7-2 cake walk against the Capitals on Wednesday. The Avs, meanwhile, have won five games in a row and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after opening their current trip with consecutive victories. Keep in mind, they're still just 16-19 on the road this season. Let's face it, the Canucks let them off the hook on Wednesday. I don't expect the Oilers to do the same on Saturday. Edmonton is 26-17 in its last 43 games after scoring six goals or more in its previous contest including a 5-3 mark in that situation this season. In an odd scheduling quirk, this will be the first of three matchups between these division opponents this season. Look for the Oilers to make a statement on Saturday. Take Edmonton (8*). |
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03-16-24 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 237 | Top | 128-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Steph Curry is expected to return for the Warriors on Saturday and they could use the offensive boost as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 11 games. They'll run into a Lakers team that has shown signs of life defensively recently, limiting three straight and four of their last five foes to 46 or fewer made field goals (that's actually progress given the way they had been playing). While the Lakers have been shooting well themselves, they're playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Meanwhile, Golden State has limited the opposition to 44 or fewer made field goals in six of its last eight games. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in Golden State's last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 6-3 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-17 in the Lakers last 37 contests played in the same situation including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-24 | NC State v. North Carolina -9 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over N.C. State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. N.C. State has gone on an incredible run to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive this week in D.C. but I expect its run to end here. There's obviously no love lost between these in-state rivals. The last meeting between the Wolfpack and Tar Heels was decided by only nine points but North Carolina was the better team by perhaps an even wider margin as it absolutely dominated the second half. Here, the Tar Heels come off a scare against Pittsburgh yesterday as they once again needed a big second half to pull away for a seven-point win. I expect a sharper performance from North Carolina here and it catches N.C. State off a late rally that saw it force overtime before prevailing against Virginia last night. Now the Wolfpack will play their fifth game in as many days and while they're hungry to earn that NCAA Tourney berth, I expect talent to win out on this occasion. North Carolina hasn't lost a game since February 13th at Syracuse and while it will be playing its third game in three days, the first of those contests was a glorified scrimmage in a 92-67 rout of Florida State on Thursday. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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03-16-24 | Cavs v. Rockets UNDER 215.5 | 103-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Houston at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rockets shot the lights out in their most recent game but that came against the lowly Wizards. They've actually gotten off just 84, 80 and 87 field goal attempts over their last three games and now face a stingy Cavaliers defense that has limited four of its last five opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. Like Houston, Cleveland is also coming off a strong offensive showing last time out against the Pelicans. It has still been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight contests and 44 or fewer in 15 of its last 18 overall. The Rockets last game snapped a streak of seven straight contests in which they had limited the opposition to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. That was only due to the fact that Washington was desperately trying to get back in the game down big most of the way. Note that the 'under' is 14-12 in Cleveland's last 26 games following a win by 20 points or more, as is the case here, including a 5-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 48-45 in Houston's last 93 contests as a home underdog including a 12-6 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-16-24 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -8 | 66-73 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Mississippi State at 1 pm et on Saturday. I would expect Auburn to lay waste to Mississippi State on Saturday as the Tigers come off a glorified scrimmage against an overmatched South Carolina squad yesterday. The Bulldogs kept their Cinderella SEC Tournament run going with a rout of heavily-favored Tennessee. The Vols clearly got caught looking past Mississippi State but I don't anticipate fourth-ranked (according to KenPom's overall rankings) Auburn to suffer a similar fate on Saturday. The Tigers do everything well, ranked in the top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency while also checking in 57th in adjusted tempo (all according to KenPom). Mississippi State, while respectable in all departments, pales in comparison and sits 27th in KenPom's overall rankings. Auburn learned its lesson in its first regular season meeting with Mississippi State, suffering a six-point road defeat before exacting its revenge in a 15-point victory at home on March 2nd. Playing three games in as many days catches up with the Bulldogs here. Take Auburn (8*). |
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03-15-24 | NC State v. Virginia -3.5 | 73-65 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over N.C. State at 9:30 pm et on Friday. Off its big upset win over Duke yesterday, we'll fade N.C. State on Friday as it faces a much different opponent in Virginia. The Cavaliers went through a tough stretch this season but have come out of it ok and I think this is a favorable matchup for them stylistically on Friday night. The low posted total tells us all we need to know as Virginia should be able to dictate the tempo, checking in ranked as the slowest-paced team in the entire country according to KenPom's adjusted tempo metric. N.C. State emptied the tank in yesterday's upset victory over Duke. The Wolfpack are a middling bunch in my opinion and I expect them to fall short here. Take Virginia (8*). |
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03-15-24 | Clippers v. Pelicans -6 | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans got schooled by an injury-depleted Cavaliers squad, on their home floor no less, two nights ago but I look for them to bounce back as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday. Los Angeles took care of business in Chicago last night, winning virtually wire-to-wire over the Bulls to snap a brief two-game skid. Interestingly, they're just 2-4 ATS over their last six games with both of those wins coming against Chicago. The Pelicans are just one game removed from a four-game winning streak and they're one of the league's few healthy teams at this late stage of the regular season. Los Angeles is just 23-29 ATS in its last 52 games against Southwest Division opponents including a 7-8 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 20-12 ATS in its last 32 games following an upset loss including an 8-5 ATS record in that situation this season. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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03-15-24 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 137.5 | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Northwestern at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Wisconsin exploded for 87 points in yesterday's rout of Maryland. I don't expect it to enjoy the same offensive success on Friday as it draws Northwestern in Big Ten Tournament quarter-final action. Note that the Badgers preferred pace is slow, ranking 307th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The same goes for the Wildcats, in fact Northwestern checks in 342nd (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo. While the Badgers offense has been ultra-efficient, this will be the Wildcats second time seeing them this season after holding them to just 44 field goal attempts in the first matchup back in January. Wisconsin shot the lights out in that game but the final score still reached 'only' 134 total points. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a contest totalled more than 134 points. The defense tends to ratchet up as this tournament goes. Case in point, last year's quarter-final round saw the four games total 135, 126, 132 (overtime game) and 130 points. Take the under (8*). |
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03-14-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 119-126 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Mavericks here as they hit the road in the second of back-to-backs off a double-digit home win over the Warriors last night and on the heels of four straight victories. While Golden State wasn't able to take advantage last night, Dallas does continue to give up too many scoring opportunities on a nightly basis. The Mavs have allowed five of their last eight opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to take advantage having knocked down 42 or more field goals in four straight and 15 of its last 17 games. The runway is cleared for takeoff for the Thunder here as they're rested having not played a back-to-back since March 3rd and 4th and with this being the finale of a four-game homestand. Note that Dallas is just 33-34 ATS in its last 67 games as a road underdog including a 10-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 32-18 ATS in its last 50 contests as a home favorite including an 18-9 ATS record this season. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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03-14-24 | Bruins -215 v. Canadiens | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Not a lot of analysis is needed for this potential parlay-booster on Thursday. The Bruins got boat-raced 5-1 at the hands of the Blues three nights ago, on home ice no less. They're well-positioned to bounce back on Thursday, however, as they head out on the road to face the rival Canadiens. Of course, this rivalry has fizzled in recent years with the Bruins taking 12 of the last 13 meetings. Montreal does enter this game off a 3-0 victory over the lowly Blue Jackets two nights ago. That's put the Habs in poor position here as they're just 1-4 in five games following a shutout victory over the last three seasons including an 0-1 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston is 55-27 in its last 82 games following a loss including a 16-12 record in that spot this season. Better still, the B's are 26-11 in their last 37 games played on two days' rest including an 8-3 mark this season. Take Boston (8*). |
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03-14-24 | TCU v. Houston -10 | 45-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over TCU at 3 pm et on Thursday. TCU delivered a convincing win over Oklahoma to reach the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. I expected the Horned Frogs run to end there, however, as they draw top-seeded Houston on Thursday. While TCU does own a respectable 21-11 record this season it didn't exactly face the most difficult non-conference slate and only proved to be a middling squad in conference play. Of note, the Horned Frogs did upset the Cougars in their lone regular season matchup back in January. That loss marked Houston's second in a row but it only dropped one more game the rest of the way. The Cougars enter this rematch in excellent form off a 76-46 rout of Kansas last Saturday. That was a revenge game as well after Houston dropped a 13-point decision in Lawrence one month prior. Expect a similar knockout blow from the Cougars here as they successfully avenge that earlier loss to the Horned Frogs. Take Houston (8*). |
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03-14-24 | Fresno State v. Utah State -11.5 | 75-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Fresno State at 3 pm et on Thursday. Utah State had to be happy about sitting idle on the opening day of the Mountain West Conference Tournament, giving it an extra day of rest following last Saturday's taxing two-point win over New Mexico that earned it top spot in the conference. The Aggies caught a bit of a break with Fresno State staging an upset win over Wyoming yesterday. That 'revenge' victory booked the Bulldogs this date with the conference's top-seed and I expect Fresno State's tournament run to be short-lived. Keep in mind, the Bulldogs don't do anything particularly well, ranking 225th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 235th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (both according to KenPom). Utah State figures to overwhelm with its 38th ranked offense. The Aggies aren't likely to overlook the Bulldogs, however, not after Fresno State gave them all they could handle in a 77-73 decision in their most recent meeting. Take Utah State (8*). |
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03-14-24 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -155 | 56-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin over Maryland at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. We won't mess with the points in a game that projects to be low-scoring on Thursday but I do expect Wisconsin to prevail. Maryland gutted out a low-scoring victory over Rutgers yesterday. The Terrapins have won just twice in their last seven contests with both of those coming against the Scarlet Knights. The Badgers didn't perform well offensively in their lone previous meeting with the Terps this season, connecting on just 21 field goals including 4-of-17 shooting from beyond the arc. Still, Wisconsin ranks 18th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Maryland checks in 151st in the same category. The Terps will have a tough time beating the Badgers at their own game here when you consider both teams play at a similarly slow pace (303rd and 310th in adjusted tempo, respectively). Take Wisconsin (8*). |
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03-14-24 | Xavier v. Connecticut UNDER 150 | 60-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Xavier and Connecticut at 12 noon et on Thursday. Xavier was able to play at its preferred pace in yesterday's win over Butler, hoisting up a whopping 67 field goal attempts in the 76-72 victory. The Musketeers aren't likely to enjoy the same offensive success against top-seed Connecticut on Thursday. The Huskies rank 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Also note that UConn checks in 332nd in adjusted tempo. The last time these two teams met the Huskies rolled to a 99-56 victory on January 28th. You can be sure Xavier hasn't forgotten that beatdown and will likely be a little more interested in grinding this rematch out and effectively shortening proceedings, keeping in mind UConn also ranks third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. While you wouldn't know it by yesterday's performance, the Musketeers rank inside the top-50 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Take the under (8*). |
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03-13-24 | Avalanche v. Canucks -103 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver over Colorado at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Avalanche followed up a perfect three-game homestand with a 6-2 rout of the Flames in Calgary last night. I look for them to have a more difficult time as they continue west to face the Canucks in Vancouver on Wednesday. Note that Colorado has now won three straight meetings in this series including both previous matchups this season. The Avs haven't won four straight games against the Canucks since an eight-game win streak in the series way back in 2007-08. The Canucks enter this game off a mini-bye having not played since Saturday. They're riding a four-game winning streak and check in 21-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. They'll be without starting goaltender Thatcher Demko for an extended period which means it's up to Casey DeSmith to hold the fort. While he's not the long-term answer, I do think he's a capable back-up. The Avs, despite their recent success, are still just 15-19 on the road this season. Take Vancouver (10*). |
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03-13-24 | Nets v. Magic UNDER 206 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This game pits two teams that have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately. The Nets have been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time they connected on more than 42 field goals. In fact, they've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in 14 of their last 17 games. They don't figure to get any sort of break here as the Magic, while struggling to find wins lately, have continued to play tough defense. Orlando checks in having held an incredible seven straight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 11 to 41 or fewer. The Magic have allowed more than 80 field goal attempts just twice in their last seven contests. On the flip side, Orlando has knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13 games overall. Last time out the Magic broke a streak of six straight games in which they had hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts. The 'under' is 66-45 in Brooklyn's last 111 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 21-12 record in that situation this season. The Nets have also seen the 'under' go 16-10 in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road win including a 3-1 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-5 in the Magic's last 14 contests with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points including a perfect 3-0 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 44-35 in Orlando's last 79 games following consecutive losses including an 8-4 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-13-24 | Air Force v. New Mexico -14.5 | 56-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico minus the points over Air Force at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Lobos stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their last four games and that means they're in play on the opening day of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Wednesday. I expect them to take their frustrations out on Air Force as they look to avenge a stunning 78-77 home loss against the Falcons on February 24th. Air Force knocked down 31-of-60 field goal attempts in that contest - a performance it is unlikely to repeat here. Note that the Falcons have connected on 24 or fewer field goals in seven of their last 10 games. In fact, they've gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. That's in stark contrast to the Lobos, who are one of the fastest, most efficient offensive teams in the country. New Mexico has made good on 28, 28, 30 and 34 field goals over its last four contests. The Lobos rank top-five in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Air Force is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win but SU loss, as is the case here, including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, New Mexico is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 contests after giving up 85 points or more in its previous game, including a 3-0 ATS record in that situation this season. Take New Mexico (8*). |
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03-13-24 | UCF +6 v. BYU | 73-87 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCF plus the points over BYU at 12:30 pm et on Wednesday. I like the fact that the Knights were able to get a game under their belts on this floor yesterday, breezing past Oklahoma State by a score of 77-62. UCF didn't shoot particularly well as a whole in that game but did connect on 9-of-18 three-point attempts. The Knights sport the 10th ranked defense in the country (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric) this season and that gives them a puncher's chance against this explosive BYU offense. Also note that UCF is comfortable playing at a fast pace, which is obviously the Cougars preferred tempo. While BYU did take both regular season meetings, both of those contests went right down to the wire. Note that UCF is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games as a neutral court underdog of six points or less including a 2-0 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, BYU is 19-23 ATS in its last 42 contests as a neutral court favorite of six points or less. The Cougars are also just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games following a home win over a conference foe, as is the case here, including a 2-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take UCF (8*). |
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03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 94-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks picked up a much-needed win over the Clippers on Sunday, snapping their brief two-game losing streak to open their current four-game road trip. I look for them to stumble on Tuesday, however, as they head to Sacramento to face the revenge-minded Kings. Sacramento has undoubtedly had this rematch circled on its calendar after dropping a heart-breaking 143-142 decision in Milwaukee on January 14th. The Kings enter this contest off a home loss against the Rockets which marked their second straight ATS defeat. Note that Sacramento is still 17-12 on its home floor this season. The Kings continue to do an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding an incredible 16 of their last 19 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three of their last four to 84 or fewer. Despite the poor showing against Houston last time out, Sacramento has still knocked down 52 or more field goals in two of its last three contests. Milwaukee on the other hand has allowed all three opponents on its current trip to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. In fact, the Clippers hoisted up 104 field goal attempts against the Bucks on Sunday. Note that Milwaukee is a long-term 73-80 ATS when coming off a win including an 18-22 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 contests following an upset loss at home including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Better still, they're 34-12 ATS in their last 46 games following consecutive ATS losses including 9-1 ATS this season. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-12-24 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 139.5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and St. Mary's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry series going back to last year's WCC Tournament championship game. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. We know what St. Mary's approach to this game will be. The Gaels will look to slow the pace to a crawl, noting that they rank 358th (out of 362 Division I teams) in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. St. Mary's enters this contest having held 25 of its last 29 opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Gonzaga enters on an offensive tear but it's not as if the Bulldogs are really pushing the pace. They've gotten off 61 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games including 58 against St. Mary's on March 2nd. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 with Gonzaga coming off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-4 in St. Mary's last 14 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-24 | Ducks -103 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Anaheim over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Ducks are coming off consecutive lopsided losses on home ice against the Stars and Islanders. I look for them to bounce back as they take a rare step down in class on the road against the Blackhawks on Tuesday. Anaheim actually sits 10 points clear of basement-dwelling Chicago in the Western Conference standings. Here, the Ducks will be looking to avenge an earlier 1-0 loss in Chicago suffered back in December. Note that Anaheim is 6-8 but +3.6 net games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored one goal or less in this season. The Ducks are also a long-term 64-53 (+19 net games) after scoring two goals or less in four straight games, as is the case here, including a 3-2 (+2.4 net games) mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Blackhawks delivered a 7-4 home win over the Coyotes on Sunday. That was their second win in their last three contests but both of those victories came over Arizona. Chicago is a miserable 3-15 (-10 net games) in its last 18 games following a win by three goals or more including an 0-3 mark in that situation this season. In fact, the Blackhawks are 1-15 when coming off a win of any kind this season including an 0-4 mark when that win came against a division opponent. Take Anaheim (10*). |
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03-12-24 | New Hampshire v. Vermont -13.5 | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
America East Game of the Year. My selection is on Vermont minus the points over New Hampshire at 5 pm et on Tuesday. Vermont escaped with a four-point win the last time these two teams squared off in New Hampshire just last week, failing to sniff out a cover as a nine-point favorite. I don't expect the Catamounts to face nearly as much resistance in this quick rematch in America East Tournament semi-final action on Tuesday. Note that New Hampshire is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit victory in-conference, as is the case here, including an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Wildcats are also just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, Vermont is 24-19 ATS in its last 43 contests following consecutive ATS losses including a 12-7 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons. Better still, the Catamounts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when coming off consecutive straight-up wins but ATS defeats, which is the situation here. Take Vermont (10*). |
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03-11-24 | Santa Clara v. St. Mary's -9.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over Santa Clara at 9 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's nearly let Santa Clara off the hook the last time these two teams met in late January. In that game, the Gaels built a seemingly insurmountable 22-point halftime lead before escaping with an 82-77 home victory. Keep in mind, the first matchup this season was no contest as St. Mary's rolled to a 73-49 road win. The Broncos will have the Gaels full attention for this WCC Tournament semi-final matchup on Monday. The last time we saw St. Mary's it fell by a 70-57 score in its regular season finale against Gonzaga. It has had over a week to chew on that double-digit defeat and as a result I expect to see a bit of a sling-shot effect from the Gaels on Monday. While St. Mary's does play at an extremely slow pace (it ranks 358th out of 362 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom), it is also very efficient, ranking inside the nation's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). For its part, Santa Clara ranks 114th in the same category. The Broncos play fast but I think it works against them in this semi-final showdown. Take St. Mary's (10*). |
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03-11-24 | Suns v. Cavs +6.5 | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Cavs go from being seven-point favorites last night against the Nets to just shy of seven-point underdogs on Monday as they host the Suns in the second of a back-to-back situation. Phoenix dropped a 10-point decision at home against the Celtics on Saturday. While the Suns are expected to welcome Devin Booker back for Monday's game, I'm still not high on their offense noting they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 12 straight games. On the flip side, Phoenix has been playing far too loose defensively, allowing an incredible 17 straight and 23 of its last 25 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts with each of its last six foes getting off at least 94 (one game was aided by overtime against Denver). Cleveland is missing a number of key contributors right now but off last night's embarrassing beatdown at home against Brooklyn I do expect a positive response on Monday. Note that the Cavaliers have held six straight and 16 of their last 19 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Their offense has struggled without Donovan Mitchell but again there should be no shortage of scoring opportunities based on tonight's opponent. The Suns check in a long-term 53-53 ATS when laying between 3.5 and 9.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing, but just 12-19 ATS in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by 15 points or more including a 2-1 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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03-11-24 | Montana State v. Weber State -6 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Weber State minus the points over Montana State at 7:30 pm et on Monday. The door is wide open for the likes of Weber State and Montana after Sacramento State and Idaho State pulled off stunning upsets in Big Sky Tournament action over the weekend. I like Weber State in particular as it draws a quick revenge matchup against Montana State on Monday. Just one week ago, Montana State delivered a 76-64 win over Weber State as it quite simply shot the lights out on its home floor (29 made field goals including 13 from three-point range on just 55 field goal attempts). Keep in mind, earlier in the season the Wildcats rolled to an 86-64 win over the Bobcats. That victory over Weber State last week marked just a third win over its last nine contests for Montana State. Meanwhile, the Wildcats suffered just their second defeat in their last 10 games. KenPom has Weber State ranked a respectable 144th in the country while Montana State checks in 241st (out of 362 Division I teams). The Bobcats play at a reasonably fast pace but aren't generally all that efficient offensively - their last game notwithstanding - and I think that will play into this one getting away from them in short order. Weber State appeared in nine postseason tournaments in 11 years from 06-07 to 16-17 including three NCAA Tournaments but has gone through a dry spell since. With two of the Wildcats biggest roadblocks going down, the opportunity presents itself to go dancing this year and I look for them to take a step in that direction on Monday. Take Weber State (10*). |
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03-10-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Knicks | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New York at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks are coming off a rout of the Magic on Friday while the 76ers had their comeback fall just short in a loss to the Pelicans. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back on Sunday as it hits the road to face New York. Note that the 76ers have held seven of their last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, they've limited eight of their last nine opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite the win on Friday, New York has knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Knicks have been inconsistent defensively, allowing two of its last four foes to connect on exactly 44 field goals. The 76ers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games played with double-revenge, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Knicks are just 12-25 ATS in their alst 37 games played at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including an 0-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive 'under' results but that's not of major concern noting they've had five previous 'under' streaks last longer. While Miami has dropped back-to-back games it remains in excellent form defensively. The Heat have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Miami isn't likely to push the pace, even against a matador-like Wizards defense. the Heat have hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 straight and 19 of their last 22 games. They've connected on more than 42 field goals just once in their last six contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-38 in Washington's last 83 games played with double-revenge including a 17-15 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-24 in Miami's last 51 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-10-24 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -4.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Arkansas State at 6 pm et on Sunday. Arkansas State just missed my card on Sunday and it was a mistake leaving the Red Wolves off as they rolled to a 27-point rout of Louisiana-Lafayette to advance to the semi-final round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot on Sunday, however, as the Red Wolves are likely to be overmatched by the Mountaineers. Appalachian State needed overtime to get past Georgia Southern yesterday. The Mountaineers got a little ahead of themselves in that game thinking the Eagles were going to roll over down by double-digits at halftime. That wasn't the case and Appalachian State needed a late push in overtime to secure the victory. After that scare, I expect the Mountaineers to turn in a complete effort on Sunday. They're a much better defensive team than they showed in the second half of yesterday's game, checking in ranked 29th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Arkansas State does boast the 67th ranked offense in the country (according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rankings) but I question whether it used up everything it had in the tank yesterday, knocking down 34-of-68 field goal attempts in the victory over Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns didn't pose any sort of offensive threat in that contest, notably making good on just 3-of-15 three-point attempts. Appalachian State elected not to involve the three-point game yesterday, attempting just 10 shots from beyond the arc. Keep in mind, the Mountaineers made good on 8-of-17 three-point attempts in an 80-57 rout of the Red Wolves just last week. Take Appalachian State (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Stars v. Kings -114 | 4-1 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Dallas at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. The Stars rolled to a 6-2 win in Anaheim last night, assuring themselves of a winning three-game road trip after securing a victory in San Jose two nights earlier. Here, I look for Dallas to stumble as it wraps up its trip in Los Angeles on Saturday. Note that the Stars are just 8-12 (-5.8 net games) the last 20 times they've played a second road game in as many nights. They're also 9-15 (-11.8 net games) after winning their previous game by four goals or more and a long-term 60-89 (-63.8 net games) in their last 149 contests following four straight victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Kings check in off an overtime win over Ottawa two nights ago. They're 15-7 (+9.5 net games) in their last 22 contests following an overtime victory. Los Angeles is also 41-26 (+17.6 net games) in its last 67 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent, which is the situation here. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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03-09-24 | Jazz +12.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-142 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets are coming off a key bounce-back win over the Celtics at home two nights ago. That came on the heels of an overtime loss at home against the Suns two nights earlier. Utah is reeling having lost nine of its last 11 games but has played competitive basketball lately, recording three straight ATS wins entering Saturday's contest. On a positive note, the Jazz have held seven straight opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. That may not seem like much of an accomplishment but given how they had been playing previously it's a step in the right direction. They're missing some key contributors offensively but have managed to knock down 42, 49 and 44 field goals over their last three games and should get Keyonte George back from a one-game absence on Saturday. I don't think Denver is well-positioned to cover too many big spreads like this given it has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in three of its last four and seven of its last 11 contests. Note that the Jazz are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss but ATS victory, as is the case here, including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah is also 19-15 ATS in its last 34 contests following three straight ATS wins, including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Denver is a middling 15-16 ATS in its last 31 games as a double-digit favorite including 5-6 ATS this season. The Nuggets are just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were a road favorite, which is the situation here, going 4-6 ATS in that spot this season. Finally, Denver is a long-term 73-82 ATS following a win including 18-22 ATS this season. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Celtics -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start on their current road trip with consecutive close losses coming at the hands of the Cavaliers and Nuggets. I look for them to 'get right' on Saturday as they continue their trip in Phoenix. The Suns are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games. Their offense remains a bit of a mess with Devin Booker still sounding like he's a game or two away from returning. Note that Phoenix has been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to give up way too many scoring opportunities. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 16 straight games. The Celtics figure to take advantage. Despite being held to just 39 and 41 made field goals in the first two games of their current road trip, they've averaged 43 made field goals on 90 field goal attempts per game on the road this season. Note that Boston is a long-term 54-28 ATS in its last 82 games following consecutive losses by six points or less, as is the case here, including a 4-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Phoenix is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Georgia Tech +8.5 v. Virginia | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday. This is quite simply a case of two teams heading in opposite directions as Georgia Tech comes in having won four of its last five games SU and five of its last six ATS while Virginia has dropped the cash in five of its last six contests, winning outright only twice over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets faced the Cavaliers at their best back in mid-January as Virginia was in the midst of an eight-game winning streak. Meanwhile, that loss against Virginia marked the first of three straight defeats and part of a 2-12 stretch overall. Note that Georgia Tech is 52-47 ATS in its last 99 games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Yellow Jackets are also a long-term 97-80 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more, as is the case here, including a 5-1 ATS record in that spot this season. Virginia is a woeful 8-25 ATS in its last 33 contests following a loss by 20 points or more in-conference. Take Georgia Tech (10*). |
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03-09-24 | Flyers v. Lightning -135 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Flyers are coming off a 2-1 road win over the Panthers on Thursday while the Lightning dropped a 6-3 decision at home against the Flames. I look for the Bolts to bounce back on Saturday as they try to stay in the mix in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Tampa Bay travelled to Philadelphia and dropped a 6-2 decision on February 27th. That was a revenge game for the Flyers after the Lightning skated to a 6-3 win in Philly in January. Here, the shoe is on the other foot and we'll note that Tampa Bay is 14-8 (+3.6 net games) in its last 22 games when seeking revenge for a road loss by four goals or more including a 4-1 (+3.4 net games) mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Flyers are just 13-29 (-14.4 net games) in their last 42 games after allowing one goal or less in their previous contest and 1-6 (-5 net games) in their last seven games after holding three straight opponents to two goals or less, as is the case here. Finally, we'll note that Philadelphia hasn't won consecutive games in this series since back in 2017. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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03-09-24 | North Carolina v. Duke -5.5 | 84-79 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Duke minus the points over North Carolina at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. The Tar Heels took the first matchup between these two teams this season back on February 3rd and that game wasn't particularly close as they led by double-digits at halftime and cruised the rest of the way. I look for the Blue Devils to answer back at Cameron Indoor on Saturday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing better offensive basketball than Duke right now as it has connected on 32, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three games. On the flip side, I like how the Blue Devils have been frustrating the opposition at the defensive end of the floor, holding each of their last four opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. The Tar Heels offense has been on point as well but hasn't proven to travel all that well this season. Note that North Carolina has connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of its nine true road games this season. That likely has something to do with the fact that it's more difficult for the Tar Heels to play at their preferred up-tempo pace away from home. Note that Duke ranks 242nd in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. North Carolina is just 25-39 ATS in its last 64 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 2-7 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Tar Heels are also just 10-12 ATS in their last 22 contests following a win by 30 points or more in-conference, as is the case here, including an 0-1 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Duke is 40-36 ATS in its last 76 games following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, which is the situation here, including a 4-2 ATS mark this season. The Blue Devils are a long-term 215-180 ATS as a home favorite including an 11-6 ATS record this season. Take Duke (8*). |
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03-09-24 | Kansas v. Houston -8 | 46-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. The Jayhawks blasted the Cougars 78-65 in the previous meeting between these two teams this season but that was in Lawrence. Here, Kansas comes in feeling pretty good about itself after a 22-point rout of rival Kansas State on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Houston has dropped the cash in three straight games. Note that the Cougars are a long-term 128-116 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Better still, they're 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite, as is the case here. Kansas is just 13-15 ATS in its last 28 road games including a 3-5 ATS mark away from home this season. Take Houston (8*). |
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03-08-24 | Red Wings -125 v. Coyotes | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Friday. This game is a must for the Red Wings as they try to snap a three-game losing streak and bounce back from Wednesday's 7-2 drubbing at the hands of the Avalanche. Despite that setback, the Red Wings remain a respectable 15-15 on the road this season where they've averaged 3.3 goals per contest. Note that Detroit is a long-term 23-19 (+8.6 net games) in its last 42 contests when coming off a loss by five goals or more. This season, the Wings are a perfect 3-0 when coming off consecutive losses by three goals or more, as is the case here. Arizona finds itself in a difficult back-to-back situation after hosting the Wild last night. For Detroit, this trip only gets tougher with a stop in Las Vegas in a back-to-back spot on Saturday before travelling all the way back east to wrap things up with a game in Buffalo on Tuesday. Take Detroit (8*). |
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03-08-24 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts UNDER 153.5 | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Friday. I think 'over' bettors may be trying to fit a square peg into a round hole in this particular matchup on Friday. While both teams have struggled defensively all season long, I'm not sure either team is capable of taking advantage offensively. South Dakota has drawn every bit of efficiency out of its offense down the stretch, connecting on 27 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games but it is playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games. It runs into an Oral Roberts squad that did play some of its best defensive basketball of the season down the stretch, limiting four of its last five foes to 26 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Golden Eagles allowed an opponent to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. In two regular season meetings we saw both teams hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts in both matchups yet those two games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is 26-20 in South Dakota's last 46 tournament games. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 43-32 in Oral Roberts last 75 tournament contests including a 6-2 mark over the last three seasons. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-13 ATS in the Golden Eagles last 41 games following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-08-24 | Western Illinois v. Arkansas-Little Rock -5.5 | Top | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas-Little Rock minus the points over Western Illinois at 8 pm et on Friday. Western Illinois enters this game on the heels of four straight wins but I think it's going to be in tough against Little Rock, which has reeled off nine straight victories and checks in 9-1 ATS over its last 10 contests. The problem Western Illinois is facing here is that it has allowed five straight opponents to get off at least 63 field goal attempts. Little Rock couldn't be any hotter offensively having connected on 28 or more field goals in five straight games and should welcome the up-tempo nature of this contest, ranking inside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Defensively, Little Rock has been locked in lately, holding four of its last five opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the Trojans have limited an incredible 13 of their last 14 opponents to 25 or fewer successful field goal attempts. The Bulldogs are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games following a win by three points or less over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 15-11 ATS in their last 26 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite. Take Arkansas-Little Rock (10*). |
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03-08-24 | Magic v. Knicks +1 | Top | 74-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Everyone is down on the Knicks right now. Perhaps rightfully so as they've lost eight of their last 11 games and could be without Jalen Brunson again on Friday as he nurses a knee injury. The Magic have to feel pretty good about themselves as they ride a five-game winning streak and are already off to a perfect 2-0 start on their current road trip. They're playing with a rather small margin for error, however, noting that they've gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games and 88 or fewer in 16 of their last 17 contests. The Knicks can apply some defensive pressure here, noting they've held 14 of their last 16 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Offensively, New York is struggling, however it did get off a whopping 99 field goal attempts against Atlanta two nights ago. The shots simply weren't falling. Note that the Knicks have lost four straight meetings in this series and that's notable as the Magic haven't defeated them in five straight matchups since recording a six-game winning streak from 2009-2011. Orlando is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games with the line set between +3 and -3, which is likely to be the case here, including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Magic are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests following a win over a division opponent. Following consecutive wins over divisional foes they've gone 0-2 ATS over the last three campaigns. Additionally, they're 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following three consecutive double-digit victories including an 0-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 21-17 ATS in their last 38 home games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-2 ATS mark this season. They're also 27-20 ATS in their last 47 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 5-3 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). |
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03-07-24 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 231.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games while the Mavericks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold as these non-conference foes match up on Thursday in Dallas. Miami has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 made field goals or less. In fact, the Heat have limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 successful field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Heat have connected on at least 46 field goals just twice since December 6th. They've gone eight straight games without hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. We know what the Mavs are all about and that's offense. With that said, they've made good on 45 of fewer field goals in three straight and five of their last seven contests. On the flip side, Dallas has struggled defensively this season. However, it has generally bounced back following exceptionally poor performances and that's the situation it is in on Thursday after allowing Indiana to make good on 50 field goals last time out. On five previous occasions this season, the Mavs have yielded at least 50 made field goals and in their next contest they've held the opposition to an average of just 43.6 with the 'under' going 3-2. Note that the 'under' is 30-21 in the Heat's last 51 road games with the total set at 220 points or higher and 19-14 in their last 33 contests following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 65-54 with the Mavs playing at home and 9-7 in their last 16 contests after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-24 | Flames v. Lightning -140 | 6-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Calgary at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Flames have taken consecutive meetings in this series but both of those games were played in Calgary. The home team has actually won seven straight matchups between these two teams and the Flames haven't prevailed in three straight meetings since way back in 1998. This is a critical homestand for the Lightning, especially after they dropped the opener against Buffalo. They did rebound with a shootout win over Montreal and have now had four days off to get ready for Calgary. Tampa Bay currently holds down the second Wild Card spot (and final playoff spot) in the Eastern Conference but has the surging Islanders and Capitals nipping at its heels, and both of those teams have multiple games-in-hand. The homestand will only get tougher for the Bolts with matchups against the Flyers and Rangers on deck. Calgary is selling prior to the trade deadline, most recently sending stud defenseman Noah Hanifin to Las Vegas on Wednesday. The Flames recently enjoyed a five-game winning streak but proceeded to drop a 4-2 decision at home against the Kraken two nights ago. Note that Calgary is just 11-19 (-18.8 net games) in its last 30 games following a loss against a division opponent. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 35-23 (+6.3 net games) in its last 58 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by two goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here. The Bolts are also 61-36 (+14.1 net games) in their last 97 games against Western Conference foes including a 16-11 (+3.4 net games) record this season. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
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03-07-24 | Niagara -7 v. Siena | Top | 66-59 | Push | 0 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is undoubtedly a game Niagara has had circled on its calendar since dropping a wild 93-88 decision at home against Siena back on January 15th. That was about as strange of a game as they come as the Saints connected on just four three-pointers but shot 62.5% from the field and knocked down a whopping 31 free throws. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here, or anything close. Note that Siena has been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Saints have allowed four straight opponents to connect on at least 27 field goals. Niagara has been struggling, dropping three straight games all in a favorite role. Note that the Purple Eagles are 21-11 ATS in their last 32 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. They're also 35-24 ATS in their last 59 contests following three straight ATS losses including a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Siena is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 games following consecutive ATS victories including an 0-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games following a road defeat in which they scored fewer than 60 points. Take Niagara (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Kings +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings are coming off a 113-109 loss at home against the surging Bulls on Monday. I look for them to bounce back against the Lakers on Wednesday. Los Angeles delivered an impressive 116-104 victory over the Thunder on Monday. Keep in mind, the Lakers caught the Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. What I like about the Kings is their ability to limit their opponents' scoring opportunities. Sacramento has held five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of its last 16 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the season it has held opponents to an average of 87 field goal attempts per contest on the road. The Lakers have quite simply been shooting the lights out lately but I don't believe that is sustainable. On the flip side, Los Angeles continues to give up a boatload of scoring chances, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine and 15 of their last 17 contests. Note that the Kings are 36-18 ATS in their last 54 games following a home loss and 25-16 ATS in their last 41 contests following an upset loss. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 24-29 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, and 25-28 ATS in their last 53 contests as a home favorite of six points or less. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Grizzlies v. 76ers UNDER 209.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not sure they can set the total low enough in this non-conference matchup on Wednesday. Both teams are actually coming off 'over' results, oddly enough both of those games came against the Nets. With that being said, those contests totalled just 208 and 219 points, respectively so it's not as if we're talking about track meets. Memphis checks in having held three of its last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 42 or less. Philadelphia seems to have realized that it's not going to enjoy much success by pushing the pace, not with its current healthy personnel. The 76ers have gotten off just 88 and 82 field goal attempts over their last two games. Note that they've connected on 41 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight contests. On the flip side, we have seen the Sixers lock-in defensively, holding eight straight and 10 of their last 11 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Part of that success comes from slowing the pace as I mentioned. Philadelphia has limited seven consecutive opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The undermanned Grizzlies don't figure to offer a stiff test in that regard as they've hoisted up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Note that the 'under' is 21-18 in the Grizzlies last 39 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 41-25 in their last 66 contests after holding their previous opponent to 105 points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 14-5 in Philadelphia's last 19 games with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points, which is the case at the time of writing, and 62-44 in its last 106 contests following an upset loss on the road. Take the under (8*). |
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03-06-24 | Boston College v. Miami-FL OVER 151.5 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Miami has inexplicably been idle since a week ago Monday, when it dropped a 75-71 decision on the road against North Carolina - its seventh straight defeat. Boston College enters on the heels of four straight losses but it has been making 'over' bettors happy with each of its last six contests sailing 'over' the total. I look for more of the same on Wednesday. While the Miami offense has struggled lately, it does continue to push the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games. The Hurricanes rank 112th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Going up against Boston College's matador-like defense should serve Miami well in this spot. The Eagles have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 27 field goals. Boston College ranks 173rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, not good for a Power-5 program. On the flip side, the Eagles have been fairly consistent offensively, making good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last six games with a low-water mark of 24 made field goals over their last nine contests. Miami, like Boston College, has struggled defensively allowing its last four opponents to connect on 28, 28, 30 and 27 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 19-12 in Boston College's last 31 games as a road underdog and 16-6 in its last 22 contests when coming off a game that totalled 155 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-15 in Miami's last 42 games as a home favorite and 7-5 in its last 12 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take the over (10*). |
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03-05-24 | San Diego State v. UNLV UNDER 136 | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego State and UNLV at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 133 points and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to top that number in Tuesday's rematch. UNLV is quietly playing as well defensively as any team in the country right now having held five straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals and nine in a row to 23 or less. This matchup is right back in the Runnin' Rebels wheelhouse as San Diego State ranks 240th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and its strength lies at the defensive end of the floor rather than on offense. The Aztecs are actually coming off a subpar defensive effort against lowly San Jose State last time out. They've had a week to stew on that performance and I'm confident we'll see their eighth ranked (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) defense step up again here. We've seen San Diego State hold a pair of opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals in its last five games. On the flip side, UNLV is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 302nd in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 33-16 in the Aztecs last 49 games with the total set in the 140's, including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 32-21 in their last 53 contests following consecutive victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 46-40 in UNLV's last 86 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 3-1 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-05-24 | Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 228 | 139-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. I see this as a blow-up spot for the Pelicans offense as they come in with fresh legs having not played since Friday (they barely broke a sweat and scored 129 points in that win over Indiana) and facing a depleted Raptors squad. With that being said, the Pelicans do have a tendency to let teams stick around on the road and I think there's reason to believe the Raptors can help this total along. Toronto has allowed its last five opponents to knock down 46, 46, 52, 44 and 43 field goals. Each of those five foes managed to hoist up at least 92 field goal attempts. The Pelicans don't play particularly fast but I don't think they'll be able to resist the temptation to push the pace in this matchup (note they attempted 104 field goals in the first meeting this season, scoring 138 points). New Orleans has allowed three of its last four opponents to get off at least 95 field goal attempts so the scoring opportunities should be there for Toronto. The Raptors have at least been consistent offensively, connecting on 41 or more field goals in seven straight games. They certainly don't mind pushing the pace, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in seven of their last eight contests. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 with the Pelicans playing on three or more days' rest this season and 4-1 in their last five contests following five or more consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 3-1 in the Raptors last four games when seeking revenge for a loss by 30 or more points against an opponent. Take the over (8*). |
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03-05-24 | Oilers -119 v. Bruins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Boston at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The schedule makers did the Oilers a favor in this rematch of an overtime thriller played in Edmonton two weeks ago. While the Oilers were idle on Monday giving them ample time to settle in in Boston, the Bruins were involved in a division game in Toronto, securing a 4-1 victory over the Maple Leafs. Edmonton enters this game red hot following four straight victories and it should bring confidence to the table playing in Beantown where it has won three straight meetings going back to January of 2020. In fact, the road team has prevailed in seven straight matchups in this series. Note that the Oilers are 28-16 (+8.5 net games) in their last 44 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent including a 7-3 (+2.6 net games) mark in that situation this season. Better still, Edmonton is an incredible 39-7 (+28.2 net games) in its last 46 contests after allowing one goal or less in its previous game, as is the case here, including a 14-3 (+8.7 net games) record this season. The Bruins haven't been the same dominant home team they were last season, already having lost 12 games at TD Garden. This is just the first game of a four-game homestand and I look for them to struggle in this three-in-four situation. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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03-04-24 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 238.5 | 104-116 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball than the Lakers right now. I'm not just talking about the short-term picture either - this has been going on for months. Los Angeles checks in having allowed nine of its last 11 and 14 of its last 18 opponents to knock down at least 45 field goals. The Lakers have been giving up scoring opportunities aplenty with seven of their last eight and 14 of their last 16 foes hoisting up at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to apply plenty of pressure on Monday, noting the Thunder have knocked down 44 or more field goals in eight straight games. On the flip side, Oklahoma City has 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. While the Lakers defense has struggled their offense has not, connecting on 47 or more field goals in five straight games. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time the Lakers were held to fewer than 43 made field goals. Note that the 'over' is 21-13 in the Thunder's last 34 games played on the second of back-to-back nights including a 7-2 mark in that situation this season. They've also seen the 'over' go 43-39 in their last 82 contests played with double-revenge, as is the case here, including a 6-2 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 66-53 in the Lakers last 119 contests following a loss including a 16-11 mark this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-04-24 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The most recent matchup between these two teams last week in Chicago fizzled as the Avalanche skated to an easy 5-0 victory. While most are expecting more of the same in this quick rematch, I expect the Blackhawks to put up more of a fight. That should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. While the Chicago offense has been putrid lately, it's worth noting that it's current streak of five straight games scoring two goals or less marks its longest such streak this season. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 the two previous times it has come off five straight games scoring two goals or less this season. Additionally, the 'over' is 11-8 in Chicago's last 19 games when seeking revenge for a shutout loss against an opponent. Meanwhile the Avs will be in a foul mood after dropping a 5-1 decision in Nashville on Saturday. Note that the 'over' is 17-10 in their last 27 contests after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. The 'over' is also 12-3 in their last 15 games following a road loss against a division opponent. The Blackhawks have been as generous as they come on the road this season, allowing a whopping 4.1 goals per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-24 | Texas v. Baylor -6.5 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Monday. Baylor continues to fly under the radar as a true national title contender perhaps overshadowed in a year where an expanded Big 12 boasts so many elite teams. The Bears enter this game off a dominant victory over Kansas on Saturday. They check in ranked 14th in the country according to KenPom with a unique mix of efficient but slow offense, ranking top-five in adjusted offensive efficiency but 301st in adjusted tempo. I expect that mix to frustrate Texas on Monday as the Bears look to avenge an earlier 75-73 loss against the Longhorns. Texas is in a log-jam in the middle of the Big 12 standings but it comes in satisfied following consecutive blowout wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Note that the Longhorns are just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog. They're 6-10 ATS in their last 16 contests following a double-digit win in-conference including a 1-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Additionally, Texas is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 contests following consecutive victories including a 1-8 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Baylor checks in 27-20 ATS in its last 47 games when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Bears are a solid positive momentum play having gone 20-16 ATS in their last 36 contests after scoring 80 points or more and 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games after an ATS victory (15-12 ATS in their last 27 after consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here). Take Baylor (10*). |
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03-03-24 | Thunder -4.5 v. Suns | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Phoenix at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Suns had a rough night on Saturday. Not only did they lose to the Rockets but Jusuf Nurkic and Devin Booker were forced to leave with injuries and are questionable to return on Sunday. Regardless who is on the floor, Phoenix is having a miserable time slowing the opposition right now having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in 13 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. That should be music to the ears of the Thunder as they look to bounce back from a surprisingly loss in San Antonio to open their four-game road trip. Oklahoma City will have the rest advantage here having not played since Thursday. The Thunder are playing as well as any team in the league offensively right now having made good on 44 or more field goals in seven straight games. The Suns have reached that number just twice in their last seven contests. It's been a struggle for Phoenix just to run its offense, hoisting up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 17 of its last 22 games. That's not likely to cut it against an explosive Thunder offense on Sunday. For the Suns it would be easy to punt this one and get ready for a trip to Denver (they are 2-1 on their current homestand after all), especially if they're missing Nurkic and/or Booker. Meanwhile, the Thunder know that this trip is going to get tougher with a stop in Los Angeles to face the Lakers tomorrow night. Oklahoma City is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 games following an upset road loss by double-digits, as is the case here, including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Better still, the Thunder are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 contests after giving up 130 points or more including a 3-1 ATS record this season. The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. They're also just 33-36 ATS in their last 69 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more including a 6-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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03-03-24 | Jets v. Sabres UNDER 6 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. These two teams combined to score 12 goals in their respective games yesterday. For the Jets, it was an incredible third period comeback as they rallied from a 3-0 deficit to defeat the Hurricanes 5-3 in Raleigh. Meanwhile, the Sabres skated to a stunning 7-2 victory over the Golden Knights. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Buffalo has to figure Winnipeg is feeling pretty good about itself after scoring five unanswered third period goals yesterday. While the Sabres offense did show out on Saturday, I don't think it wants to trade goals with the Jets on Sunday. Note that Buffalo averages just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. It has also been quite stingy defensively on home ice, allowing an identical 2.8 goals per contest. Meanwhile, the Jets have seen their road games average only 5.3 total goals. They'll want to keep this game in front of them on Sunday after falling behind 3-0 after two periods in yesterday's contest. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 46-34 with the Jets playing on the road with the total set at 6.0 or higher. Meanwhile, Buffalo has seen the 'under' go a long-term 27-23 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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03-03-24 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Niagara -3 | 91-72 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Mount St. Mary's at 2 pm et on Sunday. Niagara is in a prime bounce-back spot on Sunday as it looks to rebound following consecutive double-digit losses. The Purple Eagles already outlasted Mount St. Mary's by an 82-71 score, on the road no less, back on January 21st. Niagara has gone 2-1 SU and ATS since Mount St. Mary's joined the MAAC in 2022. The Mountaineers have won just once in their last five games and that came at home. You would have to go back four road games to find the last time they posted a victory and that came against lowly Siena - one of the worst teams in the entire country let alone the MAAC. Niagara checks in 26-15 ATS in its last 41 games following consecutive double-digit losses. That situation has only come up once in the last three seasons and the Purple Eagles delivered the cash on that occasion as well. They're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after consecutive ATS losses including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Mount St. Mary's is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 contests after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games, as is the case here, including an 0-2 ATS record this season. Take Niagara (8*). |
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03-02-24 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. |
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03-02-24 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blackhawks offense has been putrid lately, scoring a grand total of just five goals over its last four games. A home date with the Blue Jackets might be just what it needs to get kick-started though, noting that Columbus has allowed 3.8 goals per game on the road this season and four goals or more in 13 of its last 19 games overall. The Blue Jackets have produced only three goals over their last two contests but those came against two of the league's best teams in the Rangers and Hurricanes. Here, they'll face a Blackhawks squad that has allowed at least three goals in five straight and eight of its last nine games. Interestingly, Columbus has been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.0 goals per contest. This will be the second meeting between these two teams this season after Columbus skated to a lopsided 7-3 victory at home back in November. Note that the 'over' is 19-10 in the Blue Jackets last 29 games following consecutive losses by two goals or more against division opponents, as is the case here, including an 'over' result the only time that situation has presented itself over the last three seasons. Perhaps more notable, the 'over' is 50-29 in the Jackets last 79 contests following consecutive losses including a 15-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 6-1 in the Blackhawks last seven games following a shutout loss at home including a 1-0 record in that spot this season. The 'over' is also 6-3 in Chicago's last nine games following a loss by five goals or more including a 2-1 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-02-24 | NC State v. North Carolina OVER 153.5 | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina State and North Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday. Including the first meeting this season we've now seen three straight matchups in this rivalry stay 'under' the total. Going back to the turn of the century we've seen a four-game 'under' streak in this series only once - that coming back in 2017. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair on Saturday. The Wolfpack were not playing well offensively the last time these two teams matched up. In fact, N.C. State was mired in a shooting slump that saw it connect on fewer than 20 field goals in two of three games. It's a much different story this time around. N.C. State has connected on 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. There's reason to believe the Wolfpack will be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this contest as North Carolina has allowed seven of its last eight foes to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Wolfpack have been getting boat raced defensively in recent weeks. They've allowed 29, 27, 30, 25 and 37 made field goals over their last five contests. North Carolina checks in top-25 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 38th in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. Note that the 'over' is 6-1 in N.C. State's last seven games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 30-23 in the Wolfpack's last 53 contests following an ATS defeat. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 62-47 in North Carolina's last 109 games following a win by six points or less including a 5-3 record in that situation over the last three seasons. The 'over' is also 26-20 in the Tar Heels last 46 games following an ATS loss including a 6-4 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-02-24 | Wyoming v. Colorado State -15 | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over Wyoming at 4 pm et on Saturday. To illustrate just how tough the Mountain West Conference is this season look no further than the fact that a team as good as Colorado State (ranked 33rd in the country according to KenPom) sits in seventh place with an even 8-8 record. The Rams enter this contest on the heels of three straight losses but I look for them to 'get right' against the Cowboys. This is a revenge game for Colorado State after it dropped a 79-76 decision on the road back on January 27th. That game saw a wide disparity at the free throw line in favor of Wyoming as it knocked down twice as many free throws as Colorado State (20-10). The script should flip in Saturday's rematch, noting that the Rams have permitted an average of just 15 trips to the charity stripe at home this season. Colorado State ranks 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and checks in having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, limiting half of those foes to 22 or less. Offensively, the Rams haven't been setting the world on fire and part of that is by design as they sit 271st in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). With that said, I see this as a breakout spot against a bad Wyoming defense that has allowed 26 or more made field goals in five of its last six and 14 of its last 16 games overall. The Cowboys rank 248th in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cowboys are just 18-27 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss including a 5-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Rams are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 5-2 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Colorado State (10*). |
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03-02-24 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 145.5 | 74-82 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 1 pm et on Saturday. This has predominantly been a low-scoring series with the 'under' going 17-5 in the last 22 meetings including a 64-61 Kansas victory in the first matchup this season. Despite coming off a stunning home loss against BYU, the Jayhawks have shown signs of rounding into late season form defensively, holding six of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals and three of those foes to fewer than 20. Kansas has climbed to ninth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. While it generally plays at a fast pace, I do think we'll see it attempt to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday as a road underdog against revenge-minded Baylor. The Bears have had their share of breakout performances offensively but in general, remain a work-in-progress at that end of the floor where they've connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of their last nine contests. Note that Baylor ranks 296th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and has gotten off 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine straight games. Defensively, the Bears are coming off arguably their best performance of the season as they held TCU to just 17 made field goals in a 62-54 victory. Note that the 'under' is 10-5 in Kansas' last 15 games following a loss in-conference including a 4-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 33-29 in the Jayhawks last 62 contests with the total set in the 140's including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-5 in Baylor's last 16 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a perfect 4-0 mark this season. The 'under' is also 19-14 in the Bears last 33 games following a win in-conference including a 6-2 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-01-24 | Wizards v. Clippers -15 | Top | 115-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Washington at 10:40 pm et on Friday. This sets up as a smash spot for the reeling Clippers who enter this game losers of two straight and five of their last seven games overall. Los Angeles has faced a brutal stretch of opponents lately, going up against the Timberwolves, Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies, Kings and Lakers over its last six contests. Only the date with Memphis offered any sort of reprieve and the Clippers did take advantage and win that game (albeit failing to cover the spread). Here, the Clips catch the Wizards off an 'empty the tank' overtime loss against the Lakers last night. Yes, last night's numbers were helped along by overtime but the Wizards have now allowed four of their last six opponents to make good on at least 50 field goals. They've yielded at least 47 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests. For the Clips, I believe their problems are fixable, at least in the short-term. They suffered a major collapse in the fourth quarter against the rival Lakers two nights ago, blowing a 21-point lead. They have now held each of their last four opponents to 91 or fewer field goal attempts which is a stride in the right direction after the way they had been playing previously. The Lakers quite simply went off offensively in the fourth quarter two nights ago. I don't expect the Wizards to replicate that performance here, noting that they average just 43 made field goals per contest on the road this season while the Clippers have held the opposition to an average of 41 successful field goal attempts per game at home. The Wiz are just 46-53 ATS in their last 109 games following an ATS victory including a 12-16 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Clips are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 contests following consecutive upset losses at home, as is the case here. That situation has come up just once in the last three seasons and Los Angeles did cover the spread in its next game on that occasion as well. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-01-24 | Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 137.5 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Nevada at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Fresno State's most recent game went 'over' the total but that was only thanks to overtime. The Bulldogs haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' since a five-game streak from January 16th to 30th. Note that they held an up-tempo Utah State team to just 47 field goal attempts in regulation time last time out. In fact, they've limited three of their last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts. While the Aggies did get their fair share of opportunities at the free throw line in Wednesday's contest, Fresno State is actually allowing just 16 free throw attempts per game this season so it's not really a recurring theme. While the Bulldogs did get loose a bit offensively against Utah State, it faces a tougher challenge on Friday with Nevada ranked 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 245th in adjusted tempo this season (both according to KenPom). The Wolf Pack have held seven of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Fresno State has knocked down just 23 field goals per game on the road this season. As I mentioned, Nevada's preferred pace is slow, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since February 2nd against a matador-like defense in San Jose State. The 'under' is 10-8 in Fresno State's last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Nevada's last 41 contests following an 'over' result including a 7-3 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 50-39 in Nevada's last 89 games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Southern Miss at 8:30 pm et on Friday. Louisiana-Lafayette has inexplicably gone in the tank dropping four straight games both SU and ATS entering Friday's regular season finale against Southern Miss. Included in that four-game slide was a stunning 82-71 loss at Southern Miss last Saturday. I look for the Ragin' Cajuns to break out of their funk and exact some swift revenge on their home floor on Friday. The Golden Eagles have done well to hang onto sixth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings - tied with the Ragin' Cajuns, in fact. They've certainly had some good fortune along the way. Note that KenPom has them ranked 224th nationally but 47th in terms of its 'luck rating' metric. I simply feel we'll see Southern Miss' defense get overwhelmed in this particular spot. Note that the Eagles have allowed 25 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games with six of their last nine foes hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts. That should be music to the ears of the Ragin' Cajuns shooters, noting that Louisiana-Lafayette is desperate for a breakout and plays fast having gotten off 64 or more field goal attempts in four of its last five contests. Defensively, the Ragin' Cajuns have admittedly been inconsistent lately but have limited four of their last six opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. They rank a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom despite playing fast, checking in 118th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Note that Southern Miss is 0-9 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points over the last three seasons including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Louisiana-Lafayette is 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests as a home favorite including a 6-4 ATS record this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). |
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03-01-24 | Flyers v. Capitals UNDER 6 | 2-5 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams were in need of a chance to catch their breath after a couple of wild, high-scoring contests and they both got just that with consecutive days off leading up to this key divisional showdown. Note that the Capitals have two games-in-hand on the Flyers and sit just six points behind them in the Metropolitan Division standings. Needless to say, this game has 'playoff-like atmosphere' written all over it (I admittedly hate that cliche). While the Flyers have scored a whopping 12 goals in their last two games they average just 3.0 goals per game on the season. For our purposes, they've been quite stingy defensively on the road, allowing only 2.8 goals per contest. Meanwhile, the Capitals check in averaging just 2.6 goals per game on the season with that number rising to just 2.7 at home. While the 'over' did cash in the most recent matchup between these two teams we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since a four-game streak back in 2021. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in the Flyers last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 9-3 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 8-5 in Philadelphia's last 13 contests following consecutive games that totalled at least eight goals including a 2-1 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 33-14 in the Caps last 47 contests after losing their previous game by five goals or more, as is the case here. That situation has presented itself just three times in the last three seasons (all three occurring this season in fact) with the 'under' going 2-1. Take the under (8*). |