My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

The 'under' has cashed in the first two games in this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday's series-finale. Jordan Montgomery has been completely out of sorts for the Cardinals lately, allowing 13 earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has issued at least three walks only twice in his last 26 starts but those two times have come in his last three outings. He's also inexplicably had the yips in terms of home runs allowed, tagged for six long balls over his last four starts. Hunter Gaddis will counter for Cleveland. He shut the White Sox down over six innings in his most recent start, allowing just two hits without allowing a single earned run. We've seen this story play out before this season though, noting that he didn't allow an earned run over six innings against Oakland back in April before getting lit up for eight earned runs in three innings in his next outing. In 19 1/3 innings pitched at the Triple-A level this season, Gaddis had posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He has been better with the Guardians, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.21 WHIP but I do think regression will be in order over his next few outings (note that he owns a career 6.25 FIP and 1.49 WHIP). Both bullpens have been solid lately but the Guardians have blown 11 saves already this season while the Cardinals relief corps has been overworked, having not had a day off since May 11th. Take the over (8*).

American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Blue Jays took the opener of this series by a 3-1 score on Friday but the Twins bounced back in a big way yesterday, delivering a 9-7 victory in a contest that probably wasn't quite as close as the final score indicated (the Blue Jays scored three runs in the ninth inning). Both teams have been scuffing their heels lately but I like the Twins chances of ending their current homestand on a positive note before heading off to Houston to open a three-game set on Monday. Jose Berrios will take the ball as he makes his fifth career start against his former team. Since joining the Blue Jays, Berrios has posted a 2-2 team record against Minnesota but has gone 0-2 here in the Twin Cities. While Berrios has enjoyed a solid bounce-back campaign so far, posting a 3.76 FIP and 1.22 WHIP, I don't particularly like the set-up here. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third straight turn in the rotation after working seven innings against the Rays last time out (in a lopsided 20-1 victory). The last time we saw him do so he was ineffective over 5 1/3 innings last September against the Yankees, allowing five earned runs on nine hits. Note that he's shown a fairly sharp home-road dichotomy this season as well, logging a 5.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his six road outings. Bailey Ober will counter for Minnesota. He continues to be one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. Ober got the call to the bigs after starting the campaign at the Triple-A level, where he shone, posting a 2.55 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of work. Since joining the Twins, Ober has been just as effective, recording a 3.54 FIP and 0.99 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings pitched. He did allow four earned runs over five innings against the Giants last time out but has yet to give up more than single earned run in consecutive starts this season. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that has been terrific lately, entering yesterday's contest sporting a collective 2.35 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. The Jays 'pen has been on par with that of the Twins overall this season but entered yesterday's action with a 3.97 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over the last seven contests. While the Twins had the day off on Thursday, Toronto hasn't enjoyed an off day since May 11th (they'll finally get one tomorrow). The loss on the scoreboard wasn't the only setback for Toronto yesterday as CF Kevin Kiermaier was forced to leave the game with back discomfort. He's been one of the team's most consistent hitters this season, batting .319 and is also one of their best defensive players. It remains to be seen whether he'll be able to play on Sunday. The Twins have their share of injuries as well but have successfully employed a 'next man up' philosophy and average 4.8 runs per game at Target Field this season (entering yesterday's action). Take Minnesota (10*).

Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on Chicago over Cincinnati at 2:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Cubs have dropped the first two games of this series and three in a row overall. I look for them to bounce back on Sunday as they hand the ball to Drew Smyly against Graham Ashcraft of the Reds. Smyly has 'turned back the clock' so far this season, logging a 3.61 FIP and 0.98 WHIP. Incredibly, only 56 of the 219 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. It's been a much different story for Reds starter Graham Ashcraft. After a strong start to the campaign, the wheels have fallen off lately and it stands to reason whether the book might just be out on the right-hander at this point. He checks in sporting a 4.51 FIP and 1.48 WHIP and will be starting on short rest (four days) for the fourth time in his last five turns in the rotation. Against the Cubs, Ashcraft has gotten torched, allowing 22 earned runs in 16 2/3 career innings in this matchup. For the season, I would consider the two bullpens a virtual wash. I do like the fact that the Cubs have most of their key arms available for Sunday's contest, thanks in large part to a pair of lopsided defeats on Thursday and Friday. Take Chicago.