My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over Boston at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Astros stunned the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night - ruining our 'under' ticket in the process - and I look for them to build off of that victory on Wednesday. With struggling veteran Chris Sale taking the ball for Boston, I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this game. Sale has made two starts in the playoffs. In his first he gave up five earned runs in just an inning of work against the Rays. Earlier in this series against the Astros he lasted only 2 1/3 innings, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out only two in an eventual 5-4 loss. Astros starter Framber Valdez hasn't pitched particularly well in the postseason either but he's faced the Red Sox three times this season and Houston won all three games, including a 7-1 victory in his lone previous start here at Fenway Park (he worked into the eighth inning and allowed just one earned run in that outing). Here, I'll note that the Red Sox are just 33-42 when playing at home after winning two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. They're a mediocre 65-66 after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons - also the case here - not holding a scoring edge whatsoever in that situation. Finally, I'll point out that the Red Sox bullpen has taken a real sour turn, having blown four saves without converting a single one over their last seven games. Take Houston +1.5 runs (5*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with Coastal Carolina in its most recent game while also cashing with the 'under' in Appalachian State's blowout loss against Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the red hot Chanticleers stay on the road for a second straight game. Coastal Carolina was considered somewhat of a 'fluke' during a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season but there's no talk of that this year. The Chanticleers are the real deal. While their offense has been virtually unstoppable, their defense has also held up well. With that being said, few opposing offenses have offered much of a challenge. I do think we'll see CCU get a solid punch from Appalachian State here, however. The Mountaineers turned the football over four times in last week's 41-13 road loss against Lousiana-Lafayette. The hope is that they'll have standout RB Camerun Peoples back for this midweek affair, although even if he can't go, I still expect them to get well into the 20's at the very least. Defensively, Appalachian State is brimming with talent but that was the case last year as well. Despite holding the Chanticleers to 12-of-21 passing in that 2020 meeting, the Mountaineers still gave up 34 points. Meanwhile, they managed to score 23 points themselves despite three turnovers. In the last two games we saw Coastal Carolina put up 111 points and complete 43-of-51 passes for nearly 700 yards without barely breaking a sweat. The Chanticleers check in having run for over 200 yards in all six games this season. This is a team that's firing on all cylinders offensively with QB Grayson McCall one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. I do think we see Appalachian State get enough offensive possessions to inflict some damage in this one - enough to help the final score up and 'over' the total. Last year's matchup featured a real defensive tone yet still got to 57 total points. Two years ago, these two teams combined to score a whopping 93 points. Expect this one to fall somewhere between those two numbers. Take the over (10*).

NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Knicks made massive progress last season, reaching the playoffs before being dumped unceremoniously at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. I think we'll see New York play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder this season as it looks to take care of unfinished business. Remember, the Knicks gave the Celtics all they could handle and then some last season, winning two of three meetings including a 30-point rout early in the campaign, in Boston no less. The Celtics were never really able to find their footing last season and while I do expect them to fare better here in 2021-22, a slow start could once again be in the cards. The C's are already dealing with Covid-19 quarantine issues as they'll be without Al Horford for this game while Jaylen Brown isn't certain to play but likely will be able to go. The Knicks of course made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Celtic Kemba Walker. Walker is no stranger to the Garden from his days with UConn in the Big East. I love the addition of Walker as his scoring should relieve some of the pressure on veteran Derrick Rose who was asked to take on a prominent role over the course of last season. If Walker can elevate the play of the rest of the Knicks young core, the sky really is the limit this season. Here, we'll back the Knicks noting that they've thrived in similar situations as a short home favorite, going 26-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by 6.0 points on average when priced between +3 and -3 over the last season-plus. Better still, that record is 18-3 ATS when only factoring in home games, with New York outscoring opponents by 7.0 points on average. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on Boston over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday.

The Bruins will likely be a popular play on Wednesday night but that doesn't mean they're the wrong one. I like the way this one sets up for the B's as they hit the road for the first time this season to face the uneven Flyers. Philadelphia opened its campaign with a shootout loss to the Canucks - a game they really had no business getting a point out of having trailed by two goals with just a couple of minutes remaining. Since then we've seen the 'Nucks go on to lose games against the Red Wings and Sabres. We did see the Flyers bounce back on Monday as they caught the expansion Seattle Kraken in a favorable spot and rolled to a 6-1 victory. Here, they'll turn to backup goaltender Martin Jones against Boston and I'm not convinced they have the offensive firepower to keep up with the B's. Note that Philadelphia checks in 5-13 after scoring four goals or more in its last game over the last season-plus, outscored by an average margin of 1.6 goals in that situation. In fact, the Flyers are just 7-17 the last 24 times they've come off a win of any kind, outscored by 1.5 goals on average while giving up 4.1 goals per game in that situation. The Bruins have taken four of the last six meetings here in Philadelphia and I like their advantage here with underrated goaltender Jeremy Swayman going up against the aforementioned Jones. Take Boston (6*).

NHL Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Blues are off to a red hot start this season, scoring 12 goals in recording back-to-back road wins over the Avalanche and Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are coming off a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Kings in Los Angeles last time out. That sets them up well here, noting that they average 4.1 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. I do question whether they can keep the Blues offense at bay, however, noting that St. Louis averages 3.4 goals when coming off a win of any kind over the last 2+ seasons and by all accounts has its best offensive team in years here in 2021-22. While the Knights will be missing two of its top goal scorers in Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, I believe that will allow their depth to shine through in the short-term. Note that Stone's defensive play might be missed even more than his offensive work. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with nine of the last 11 meetings going 'over' the total. Last year's three meetings that featured the goaltending matchup of Jordan Binnington vs. Robin Lehner (which is expected tonight) totaled nine, six and seven goals. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Vegas over St. Louis at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Blues have looked incredibly impressive through two games this season, going on the road and beating the Avalanche and the Coyotes, scoring 12 goals in the process. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are coming off an ugly 6-2 road loss in Los Angeles, losing Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone to injuries in the process. Still, I like the way this spot sets up for Vegas. Note that the Knights have gone 10-2 when coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. Better still, they've gone 14-3 when coming off a road loss by two goals or more, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 goals on average. For their part, the Blues have posted a 21-31 record after giving up four goals or more in their previous contest over the last 2+ seasons. Missing Pacioretty and Stone might be a problem if they're out long-term, but for now, I look for the Knights depth to shine with a guy like Chandler Stephenson stepping up and helping pick up the scoring slack. Take Vegas.

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