Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-25-24 | Cardinals +4.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-38 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 57 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona plus the points over Denver at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. An 0-2 start certainly wasn't second-year head coach Jonathan Gannon had in mind for his Arizona Cardinals. Of course, preseason results mean little in the grand scheme of things, but when it comes to a team that desperately needs to get the nose of the airplane pointed back in 2024, salvaging a victory in the preseason finale would be a start. While no team is going to put earning a win ahead of staying healthy at this stage of August, I do think the Cards have some added motivation in this spot and I've been impressed by what I've seen from a number of their younger, unproven players, even in consecutive defeats. I'm a believer in the letdown factor, even in the preseason. The Broncos are certainly prime candidates for such a letdown after they drilled the Packers 27-2 last Sunday night. Another strong performance under center earned rookie QB Bo Nix the Week 1 starting job so the pressure is off in some regard. I'm not expecting to see much game-planning from the Broncos this week and see little reason for them to be favored by more than a field goal (at the time of writing). Note that these same two teams met in Week 3 of the preseason last year with the Cardinals earning a narrow 18-17 victory. We'll grab all the points we can get with the visitors in this spot. Take Arizona (10*). |
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08-17-24 | Lions v. Chiefs OVER 39 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Kansas City at 4 pm et on Saturday. The Chiefs and Jaguars saw one of the highest posted totals of the preseason to date last week and couldn't quite get there in a 26-13 Jags victory. Poor third-down execution played a role, which the Chiefs in particular going 2-for-13. You know that didn't sit well with head coach Andy Reid. I look for the Chiefs offense to bounce back in a big way against the Lions this week. Detroit has allowed 24.3 points per game in its last 17 preseason contests with the 'over' going 12-5 over that stretch. The Lions have quite simply been one of the best preseason 'over' bets in the league for a number of years. Also of note, the 'over' is 10-0 in the Lions last 10 preseason games following a loss, as is the case here following last week's ugly 14-3 defeat against the Giants. While we won't see much from the starters, as is the norm in today's NFL, look for both offenses to find plenty of success on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-25-23 | Lions +5 v. Panthers | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Carolina at 8 pm et on Friday. The Lions were manhandled 25-7 at home against the Jaguars last week, spoiling the gains from the previous week when they rallied for a victory over the Giants. I look for Dan Campbell's squad to bounce back in Friday's preseason finale as they head to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina is expected to give its starters a run in this game and that includes rookie quarterback Bryce Young. His results have been mixed in the early going. Carolina has yet to secure a win this preseason after getting shut out by the Jets in Week 1 and rallying but falling short in a 21-19 loss to the Giants last week. There's just nothing in this matchup that leads me to believe the Panthers are deserving of laying more than a field goal. While we've seen positive flashes from Carolina's second and third-string quarterbacks in Matt Corral and Jake Luton, we've also seen plenty of mistakes. After such a poor showing last week, I expect the Lions defense to take a step forward here, certainly as they look to rise to the occasion against the highly-touted rookie QB Young in the early going. Take Detroit (10*). |
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08-24-23 | Colts v. Eagles OVER 38 | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Philadelphia at 8 pm et on Thursday. These two teams made headlines earlier this week as they were engaged in a brawl at the end of their joint practice. Cooler heads obviously prevailed and now we'll see a matchup between the two teams at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday. Indianapolis is expected to give some of its starters a run in this game according to head coach Shane Steichen. That includes rookie QB Anthony Richardson, who sat last week's contest against Chicago after an inconsistent showing in the opener against Buffalo. While one might assume the Eagles defense would have its way with Richardson and the Colts offense, which is not expected to be one of the league's better offenses this year, we're unlikely to see all of Philadelphia's regular starters on that side of the football, nor will we see much other than a vanilla defensive scheme here. Note that the Eagles have recorded only two sacks through their first two preseason contests. The Colts do boast one of the stronger preseason QB rotations with veteran Gardner Minshew and Sam Ehlinger likely to get snaps on Thursday as well. Speaking of QB's, the Eagles have a good one (by preseason standards) in Tanner McKee. He has impressed through two games, showing a willingness to push the football down the field and a good rapport with this receiving corps. Projected QB2 Marcus Mariota has something to prove after a poor showing in the first half against the Browns last week. Mariota was much sharper in the Eagles preseason opener in Baltimore, leading them on two drives into Baltimore territory that resulted in one made field goal and one missed. On the flip side, the Colts have allowed at least one score in seven of eight preseason quarters to date. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-23 | Saints -3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While this will technically be the Chargers first home game of the preseason, they did play here last week as they delivered a 34-17 win over the Rams. That win had more to do with the Rams lacking depth than anything else (they were also trounced by the Raiders last night). New Orleans is coming off a wild 26-24 victory over Kansas City. I like the Saints quarterback rotation with Jameis Winston and rookie Jake Haener once again expected to handle the bulk of the snaps on Sunday. Haener had a shaky first couple of possessions but did end up settling in and orchestrating a 76-yard touchdown drive later on. The Chargers starters are unlikely see much (if any) playing time on Sunday after these two teams took part in joint practices this week. They didn't show much interest in turning rookie QB Max Duggan loose in the second half last Sunday as he attempted only three passes (that was largely game-script related but still worth noting). I don't anticipate Brandon Staley opening up the Chargers playbook too wide in this contest either as his number one goal this preseason seems to be figuring out who will win the backup running back job. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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08-19-23 | Patriots +3 v. Packers | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Green Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. While Patriots head coach Bill Bellichick isn't exactly known for his preseason success I do think last week's ugly showing at home against the Texans mattered. Here, the Pats will head back to the field following a couple of days of joint practices with the Packers and by all accounts New England took it to Green Bay in those sessions - particularly on offense. It's worth noting that the Pats check in off a loss last week as they haven't dropped consecutive preseason games (in the same year) since way back in 2017. The Packers are 'fat and happy' off a 36-19 dismantling of the Bengals, on the road no less, last week. That result was more about the Bengals sloppy play than it was the Packers sharpness. Here, we're once again likely to see plenty of Penn State alum Sean Clifford under center for the Packers. The Patriots defense was actually flying around against the Texans last week but didn't end up with much to show for it. I expect them to feast on the Packers depth-shy offense here. Take New England (10*). |
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08-18-23 | Panthers v. Giants OVER 38.5 | Top | 19-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and New York at 7 pm et on Friday. Giants head coach Brian Daboll couldn't have been too pleased by his team's performance last week in Detroit, even if it is only the preseason. New York jumped out to a 13-3 halftime lead but could only muster a single field goal the rest of the way in an eventual 21-16 defeat at the hands of the Lions. Keep in mind, in Daboll's first year at the helm in 2022, New York scored 23, 25 and 27 points in preseason action. Here, Giants starters are expected to make a cameo appearance before Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito take over the QB reins the rest of the way. I expect better efficiency from the Giants offense as a whole this week. The Panthers are in a similar situation, looking to bounce back from an ugly performance against the Jets, at home no less, last week. Carolina was shut out in that contest so there's obviously nowhere to go but up this week. Offensive line issues plagued the Panthers in that contest. I look for them to do a better job of getting the ball out quickly. Rookie Bryce Young is expected to get the start again here but we can anticipate Matt Corral to get the bulk of the snaps under center with Jake Luton possibly mixing in as well. I look for the WR duo of Shi Smith and Javon Wims to make some headway against Giants backups on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-23 | Texans v. Patriots OVER 36.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New England at 7 pm et on Thursday. It's not difficult to understand why this total has shifted downward over the course of the week. After all, these are expected to be two of the weaker offensive teams in the league this season and the Patriots have already indicated they won't be playing their starters here in Week 1 of the preseason. The Texans on the other hand will dress the majority of their starters but how much playing time they see remains to be seen. They also have a defensive-minded first year head coach in DeMeco Ryans. I still like the chances of a relatively high-scoring affair here. All indications are that the Texans offense has actually been clicking a little bit at camp and their preseason quarterback rotation of rookie C.J. Stroud, third-year former starter Davis Mills and veteran Case Keenum is actually encouraging. Rookie RB Xazavian Valladay has been turning heads during camp and will see plenty of playing time as well. On the flip side, the Pats are expected to give Bailey Zappe plenty of run at QB in their preseason opener. He's obviously comfortable operating the offense after seeing considerable playing time in place of an injured Mac Jones last year. He's been building a good rapport with a trio of wide receivers including impressive rookie Demario Douglas, with all of them getting first-team reps this week. New England also boasts a deep running back room with Pierre Strong Jr., Kevin Harris and J.J. Taylor ready to split up the work on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-22 | Rams v. Chargers UNDER 32 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between the Rams and Chargers at 10 pm et on Saturday. Neither of these teams are expected to play their starters in this game - no real surprise after both head coaches elected to aim for a very 'uneventful' preseason slate a year ago. The Rams saw their three preseason games in 2021 total just 29, 33 and 19 points. As for the Chargers, their three preseason tilts last year reached only 27, 25 and 19 total points. The latter game for each team came against one another as the Chargers prevailed by a 13-6 score. While both teams are obviously set at the quarterback position once the games count for real with Matt Stafford and Justin Herbert, it gets a little uglier down the depth chart. The Rams boast the likes of John Wolford, Bryce Perkins and Devlin 'Duck' Hodges while the Chargers have Chase Daniel (admittedly a preseason household name but not likely to see a lot of action here), Easton Stick and Brandon Peters. There's not a ton of wiggle room in either team's wide receiver depth charts so no real need to put on an air show to evaluate talent at that position. It was a similar story for both squads during last year's preseason schedule. The Chargers in particular will be looking to evaluate their talent at running back in this one with Isaiah Spiller entrenched in a depth chart battle with Josh Kelley and Larry Rountree. I'm anticipating both teams focusing on effectively 'shortening' this game with a heavy dose of their respective ground attacks here. We're dealing with a relatively low total, especially when you considering the high-scoring start the preseason has gotten off to across the board, but I believe the number is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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08-27-21 | Colts v. Lions OVER 31.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Detroit a 7 pm et on Friday. With the Colts being known for their stout defense and the Lions pegged as potentially the worst team in football this season, not to mention coming off consecutive losses to open the preseason, it's not all that surprising that we're dealing with a low total in this 'meaningless' preseason tilt. I think there's reason to expect some offensive fireworks, however. Indianapolis is preparing to face a brutal early season schedule. The Colts won't be able to catch their breath until mid-October when they get a home layup against the Texans. With that in mind, they need to stay healthy, particularly on the defensive side of the football, coming out of this final preseason tilt. For that reason I wouldn't expect to see much of their defensive starters. That opens the door for the Lions to perhaps go into the season with a good feeling as they try to notch their first victory of the preseason. There is some continuity on the Lions side with David Blough and Tim Boyle having taken all of the snaps here in August game action. That should continue to be the case on Friday and I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing. Keep in mind, we did see a spark from the Detroit offense against the Steelers backups last week as they put up 20 points in the fourth quarter. The Colts have thrown the football around more than you might expect in the preseason as Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger continue to battle it out for the Week 1 starting job (and eventual backup to Carson Wentz, who has returned to practice). After attempting 37 passes in Week 1 of the preseason, Eason and Ehlinger combined to attempt 40 passes in Week 2. Head coach Frank Reich will want to see better execution from the offense here this week after they were held to just 12 points and zero touchdowns in last week's narrow 12-10 win over the Vikings. Indy did move the football in that contest, with the two quarterbacks combining to throw for over 200 yards. Take the over (10*). |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 39 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NFLX First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Jacksonville and New Orleans at 8 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off losses in their respective preseason openers. Jags rookie QB Trevor Lawrence admitted he felt some nerves in his debut and it showed as he took a couple of early sacks and showed few flashes of the dominant college quarterback that warranted the number one overall pick in this year's draft. I expect him to settle down and turn in a much better performance on the fast track at the Superdome on Monday night. Lawrence will see the bulk of the early action under center but we should see Gardner Minshew get some first half reps as well. By playing the first half only we avoid getting too deep into the Jags QB rotation which also includes C.J. Beathard and Jake Luton - both threw touchdown passes late in last week's loss to the Browns but I wouldn't count on a repeat effort tonight. The Jags defense didn't look good against the Browns. Cleveland moved the football up and down the field at will, despite resting most of its key offensive starters. Jacksonville was actually fortunate to only give up 13 first half points in its preseason opener as the Browns lacked some execution at the end of drives. The damage could have been much worse. Here, I expect the Saints to make a concerted effort to push the football down the field with Jameis Winston expected to get the start under center. We saw Winston get more comfortable and start taking some deep shots as the game went on against the Ravens last week and I expect to see carry-over from that gameplan here. While this is a relatively high first half total by preseason standards, I don't think it's been set high enough. By playing the first half only we'll look to avoid putting our trust in the hands of Saints possible practice squad QB Trevor Siemian, who is expected to see plenty of second half action. Take the first half over (10*). |
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08-21-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins OVER 36.5 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 58 h 58 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Miami at 7 pm et on Saturday. We're being afforded a relatively low total to work with here thanks to 'meaningless' Week 1 preseason results. The Falcons were absolutely crushed by the Titans by a 23-3 score, at home no less. It certainly wasn't a great look for new head coach Arthur Smith - the former Titans offensive coordinator. Let's not get too excited by that ugly performance though. We didn't see the Falcons offensive starters in that game. It remains to be seen whether the starters suit up for this one but I would expect to see at least some of the Falcons stars to at the very least make a cameo appearance in this one. Regardless, I think Atlanta has enough depth on offense to put up a much better performance than we saw last week. Projected third-string QB Feleipe Franks did do a good job of moving the football on the ground, racking up 76 rushing yards against Tennessee. Here, I think we'll see Smith dial up the offense a little with a more pass-heavy attack as the Falcons use this as a measuring-stick game against a good Dolphins defense. Miami's offense got off to a fine start against the Bears last Saturday but fizzled in the second half in a 17-13 loss. That certainly wasn't an ideal spot to unleash the offense in a tough matchup on the road against a quality Bears defense. It's a different story here as Miami prepares to face a middle of the road Falcons defense. Head coach Brian Flores guided his team to a 3-1 record in his preseason debut as a head coach in 2019. That included a 34-27 victory over these same Falcons in their preseason home opener. Flores knows what he has on defense. What he needs to find out here is what he has offensively, and like Smith, I look for him to dial up a more aggressive offensive gameplan in an effort to figure out where his team stands, especially with QB Tua Tagovailoa taking over the reins as the starter this year. With this total sitting where it is, we don't need an offensive shootout to cash this ticket. That warrants us stepping up to our top rating. Take the over (10*). |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
NFLX TV Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Arizona at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the short number with the Chiefs as they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals in front of a national ESPN audience on Friday. Both of these teams were victorious by identical 19-16 scores last week as the Chiefs defeated the Niners in San Francisco and the Cardinals took down the Cowboys here at home. It's worth noting that Arizona's victory came thanks to a pair of Matt Prater field goals inside the game's final two minutes (foiling our play on the Cowboys plus the points). Kyler Murray is expected to see his first action of the preseason for the Cardinals. He has already stated that he 'hates the preseason' and puts virtually no stock in what happens on the field. With WRs DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green and RB James Conner on and off the field due to various ailments, he may not have his full compliment of weapons during what should be a brief appearance in the first half on Friday. Also note that depth WR Andy Isabella will miss this game due to Covid protocols. Behind Murray in the QB rotation is the capable but underwhelming duo of Colt McCoy and Chris Streveler. Note that the Cards went 1-3 in the preseason in their first year under head coach Kliff Kingsbury back in 2019. So they're in uncharted territory in a sense as they look for their second consecutive preseason win here. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has said that he will play his starters for most, if not all of the first half on Friday. While it remains to be seen whether that means we'll see a full half from QB Pat Mahomes (probably not), I still think we're going to see Kansas City put forth a fairly serious effort (by preseason standards) as they look to go 2-0 on the road. The Chiefs offense will be facing a Cardinals defense that won't have the services of J.J. Watt or Chandler Jones. Kansas City doesn't have a top-flight QB rotation by any means but I do like the veteran presence of Chad Henne and Shane Buechele did show he can move the ball down the field with his arm and his legs in last week's victory (8-of-11 passing and three runs for 13 yards). I simply feel we'll see a little better execution from the Chiefs for four quarters than we will from the Cardinals as Kansas City is a road favorite for a reason. Take Kansas City (10*). |